Microsoft Imagines 2019....10 Years From Now.........Crazy Crazy Stuff.......

Originally Posted by ThrowedInDaGame

Originally Posted by wj4

That's cool and all, but I highly doubt it. 10 years is not far off...

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From an electrical engineering standpoint, I don't see anything in that video that is far fetched

. You guys fail to grasp the concept of EXPONENTIAL growth. The video can be summed up in 2 words, exponential growth. This will be a recurring theme in my post. Look at technology from lets say the year 1 B.C. to 1800 B.C. Look at technology from 1800-1900 B.C. From 1900-1950, from 1950 to 2000. From 2000-now. Technology has advanced farther in the last 9 years than it it did in the first 1,800 years of modern B.C. time and defiantly more than in the 10,000+ years before the year 0. Its hard for you guys and myself to fathom because it's exponential. It's easy to extrapolate a line, not so much a curve becuase it difficult to gauge where on the curve you are.

You probably arn't familiar with Moore's law in regards to the semiconductor industry. I suggest you look into it as well as the related exponential growth of the computer industry before further comment. That goes for anyone in this thread who feels as if the video is as NT puts it "ducktales". To put everything in lay mans terms, devices are being halved in size, so you operating speed is doubled. Halving devices also means you can increase complexity and the amount of "stuff" you can fit on a chip. Check out Intel's chip progression. These guys are crazy

The chips are getting more complex so they can do more stuff that you guys call "cool". That is just 1 aspect of computer tech, but it is the main catalyst.

Technology is not linear, I feel as if we are approaching the turning point on the curve, the point where growth becomes almost vertical. I'd say we reach the "knee" of the exponential graph around 2020-2030. Really the knee will come when computers start inventing all of the new stuff. The human mind has limitations, the computer does not. Right now, one computer has the intelligence level of a rodent (correct me if im wrong). Eventually 1 computer will have more intelligence than the entire human race. This is not science fiction, this is a computer engineering inevitability, a singularity that can not be avoided unless we destroy ourselves before that point. What happens when computers surpass human intelligence and begin to invent their own devices, nobody knows. We just have to sit around and wait.

All of this is a result of Moore's law and exponential growth. The current semiconductor design is reaching it's zenith, actually it's reaching the point where quantum mechanics can not be ignored, but that's another topic for another day. So for any engineers, physicist who come in here with that nonsense, human beings will either find a new device or find away around these effects. I'm sure of it.

I suggest that those of you who are technologically inclined or simply have a passion for computers read "The singularity is near" by Raymond Kurzweil. He conveys the point I am trying to get across much better with evidence, research, and studies. At 1:25 AM, its hard for me to type out Executive Summaries of technology.

Anyways, the bigger question is how affordable will the stuff be.

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Originally Posted by TheFoteenth

iRobot will happen one day, I'm sure of it.

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Originally Posted by SuperAntigen


Edit-- Ewwwww, i think my roommate is having a wet dream right now because dude is over hear "engaging" the bed in his sleep...

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