True or False: Derek Jeter can catch Pete Rose....

Most people have already chimed in with the main points, which I agree with. He has little to no chance. Dude is in the last segment of his career. The last phase. The late 30's.

The things Pete Rose had to even do late in his career to get past Cobb were off the wall (player-manager being one example).

There's also a reason in the last 30 years the highest any MLBer (other than Rose) has gotten in hits is 3,319 by Paul Molitor. Things to think about.
 
Originally Posted by JD617

Originally Posted by deepinthajeep

^what "numbers" exactly?
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I'll break it down for you, since you obviously didn't do that before making your posts on this page.

Single-season record for hits in a season: 262.

Jeter's career high for hits in a season: 219.

Jeter has 126 hits so far this season, and we're about two thirds of the way through. Let's say he ends up with 200 hits this season, which is probably a little generous. That puts him at 2947 for his career, 1309 short of Rose.

Then you said he'd break the record if he plays until he's 40, aka through the 2014 season. 1309/4 = 328 hits per season.
roll.gif


Then I pointed out how dumb that was, so you changed your answer to 5 seasons. 1309/5 = 262 hits per season, which means you think he's gonna AVERAGE the MLB record for hits in a season for the next 5 years.

Then I pointed out how dumb that was too, and your only response was this stan-like comment:

Bottom line is, it's is a possibility. He's Derek Jeter.
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So I mean... can't argue with that, because you're not living in reality.
He is Derek Jeter though....numbers alone, you're right, he's probably can't do it. Are the Yankees going to field a 40 year old SS?? I dunno? The O's did. Your numbers also don't account for post season at bats. He just passed the Babe.
 
Postseason numbers don't count. Otherwise Rose would have 4342 hits instead of 4256.

This is a regular season record we're talking about.
 
deepinthejeep said:
Bottom line is, it's is a possibility. He's Derek Jeter.

and

He is Derek Jeter though...
roll.gif


What does him being a career .315 hitter have anything to do with anything?

He's 1380 hits short... Let's mark him at around 60 hits the rest of the way this year and call it 1320 after this season... At 200 hits per, he's playing 6+ more years as an ELITE hitter... At his career average of ~190 hits per year, he's looking at a full 7 years... If he declines, which he will, and averages 180, he's looking at 7 years and another 60 games...

He's already 36... Just can't see it. Maybe I'm wrong, but everybody that isn't a Yankees fan seems to think this is probably out of reach...
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Originally Posted by deepinthajeep

But he's Derek Jeter.
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And that means... What?

It doesn't change the fact he'd basically have to do what almost NOBODY has every done in the history of baseball.
 
Ichiro is the only player in our lifetime that would have had a shot at this record if he came over sooner. He might still break the 4256 record if you take into account his Japan totals. Crazy how he has 3400+ hits combined in the two leagues.
 
hell no...he would have to play another 8 years and still play some type of position. you cant DH someone that doesnt hit homeruns.
 
Originally Posted by deepinthajeep

^ You're not wrong man. Numbers are against him...so is time.

But he's Derek Jeter.
Click to expand...

If your best argument is the mans name then youve got a TERRIBLE case. 
laugh.gif
 
I was watching Prime 9 on MLB Network and they were listing unbreakable records.. And 4256 came up....

They did some statistical equation.. And only 1 current player had any chance of breaking the record.

Derek Jeter......................At 1%............


Now that is no certainty based on their calculation but I don't think there is even a 1% chance


In 2010 Jeter has 1.18 hits per game... There is 52 games left (reasonably assume he plays 48 games) he gets 56 more hits.. That leads to 2931 hits

That puts him 1325 behind tying Pete Rose...


Derek Jeter will be a 37 year old free agent at the end of the season... There is 100% chance he resigns with the Yankees...


Question is for how long...

In my opinion it will be 4-5 years... But I'll consider 6 years at most... No way Yankees will want Derek Jeter at 43 for the 7th year

Arod is a free agent at age 42...... And no way Yankees will want to keep Derek Jeter at any age older than Arod... Regardless of PostSeason and Clutch, Arod is a far better player...And by 42 he will be a borderline awful player

If Jeter signs 3 years making him a Yankee through 39 years old... He needs about 442 hits per year to tie (IMPOSSIBLE)
If Jeter signs 4 years making him a Yankee through 40 years old... He needs about 332 hits per year to tie (IMPOSSIBLE)
If Jeter signs 5 years making him a Yankee through 41 years old... He needs about 265 hits per year to tie (IMPOSSIBLE)
If Jeter signs 6 years (the longest the Yankees will sign him mark my words) making him a Yankee through 42 years old... He needs about 221 hits per year to tie (NOT IMPOSSIBLE.... But for Jeter it is.. His highest total ever was 219.. So to think he averages 2 above his career high for 6 seasons at the end of his career is being blinded by homerism)

And let's just say in the unlikely scenario that the Yankees sign Jeter to a 7 year deal making him a Yankee through 43 years old... He needs 189 to tie...

Let's say he stays healthy for 7 straight years... All the way through 43 years of age.. He will average around 600 at-bats a year (152 game average).. He needs to hit between .315 - .319 the last 7 years.. And for a life time .315 hitter.. It seems unlikely that he will hit at/ above his career average at the end of his career...


I am a die hard Yankee fan... And I'd love to see Jeter break it... But the likelihood that Jeter has 0 injuries... And still performs at top form until age 43 considering his game is starting to fall..Is none...

If he was 34 instead of 36 then yes he could.. If he had about 20 more hit average each year he has played then yes he could.. But you can't rewind time and you can't change stats..

And you can't escape father time..
 
I was thinking about this thread earlier, but there must have been another thread on this topic because I remember posting in it. Might have even created it.
 
:lol:

the reality unless they brig back player managers, this record will never be broken.

Pete Rose put him self in the lineup at the detriment of the team. :lol:
 
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