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***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

post #1 of 15832
Thread Starter 
Last thread became a cluster *+%+ and unorganized. This thread is an attempt to make the thread more cohesive, readable, and verifiable. 

The regular posters in the original have agreed so here are the new suggested guidelines for this thread:

-Post bets/picks before the game starts.
-If possible, post your online ticket WITHOUT the money involved. example:
62445422-1 10/24/10 3:17pm

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 10/24/10 4:05pm  NFL Football  422 Seattle Seahawks -5½ -125* vs Arizona Cardinals 
Pending 10/24/10 4:15pm  NFL Football  423 New England Patriots pk +110* vs San Diego Chargers 
Pending 10/24/10 4:15pm  NFL Football  425 Oakland Raiders +7 -115* vs Denver Broncos 

-Try to use a unit system or similar to demonstrate your confidence in the pick.
-Include an explanation/intuition for the pick. Doesn't have to be great or anything.

-Let's try to make this as legit as possible. The way I see it: if we follow the suggestions, 
I think the plays will get better, the people in here will get better and we will all have a slightly better experience. 






FOR NEW BETTORS:

LIST OF TOP SITES AS REVIEWED BY SPORTSBOOKREVIEW.COM: ASK FOR REFERRALS!!!!
29ere2r.jpg
Multiple methods of getting money on; check with specific sites
WORDS OF ADVICE:
TAKE IT EASY.
USE A UNIT SYSTEM.
PARLAYS ARE HARD.
Don't bet just to bet. 
Don't try to make up for what you lost earlier by playing multiple times in one day. 
Parlays do hit but if you're not bout that life, go with single bets. It'll save you from ripping your hair out when one team blows a 10 teamer.

WHAT ELSE DO I NEED TO ADD?
post #2 of 15832
Thread Starter 
Last thread became a cluster *+%+ and unorganized. This thread is an attempt to make the thread more cohesive, readable, and verifiable. 

The regular posters in the original have agreed so here are the new suggested guidelines for this thread:

-Post bets/picks before the game starts.
-If possible, post your online ticket WITHOUT the money involved. example:
62445422-1 10/24/10 3:17pm

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 10/24/10 4:05pm  NFL Football  422 Seattle Seahawks -5½ -125* vs Arizona Cardinals 
Pending 10/24/10 4:15pm  NFL Football  423 New England Patriots pk +110* vs San Diego Chargers 
Pending 10/24/10 4:15pm  NFL Football  425 Oakland Raiders +7 -115* vs Denver Broncos 

-Try to use a unit system or similar to demonstrate your confidence in the pick.
-Include an explanation/intuition for the pick. Doesn't have to be great or anything.

-Let's try to make this as legit as possible. The way I see it: if we follow the suggestions, 
I think the plays will get better, the people in here will get better and we will all have a slightly better experience. 






FOR NEW BETTORS:

LIST OF TOP SITES AS REVIEWED BY SPORTSBOOKREVIEW.COM: ASK FOR REFERRALS!!!!
29ere2r.jpg
Multiple methods of getting money on; check with specific sites
WORDS OF ADVICE:
TAKE IT EASY.
USE A UNIT SYSTEM.
PARLAYS ARE HARD.
Don't bet just to bet. 
Don't try to make up for what you lost earlier by playing multiple times in one day. 
Parlays do hit but if you're not bout that life, go with single bets. It'll save you from ripping your hair out when one team blows a 10 teamer.

WHAT ELSE DO I NEED TO ADD?
post #3 of 15832
"Parlays are hard" laugh.gif



Lego. pimp.gif
post #4 of 15832
Don't bet just to bet.
Don't try to make up for what you lost earlier by playing multiple times in one day.
Parlays do hit but if you're not bout that life, go with single bets. It'll save you from ripping your hair out when one team blows a 10 teamer.
post #5 of 15832
"Parlays are hard" laugh.gif



Lego. pimp.gif
post #6 of 15832
Don't bet just to bet.
Don't try to make up for what you lost earlier by playing multiple times in one day.
Parlays do hit but if you're not bout that life, go with single bets. It'll save you from ripping your hair out when one team blows a 10 teamer.
post #7 of 15832
Thread Starter 
^Will add. Thanks.
post #8 of 15832
Thread Starter 
^Will add. Thanks.
post #9 of 15832
bijald.....check your pms. sent you one a couple days ago i wanted you to check out.
post #10 of 15832
bijald.....check your pms. sent you one a couple days ago i wanted you to check out.
post #11 of 15832
Sweet.
post #12 of 15832
Sweet.
post #13 of 15832
Thread Starter 
Damn Pro, my bad on not including you in the pm's. I looked a bunch of pages back and you weren't there; might have just missed you.

I will from now on try to post an article or something interesting from time to time. 

Bill Simmons from espn.com is involved in the Las Vegas SuperContest (every week pick 5 NFL games 
against the spread (ATS); 1500/entry) He also had periodic podcasts with Chad Millman, the website's gambling writer.
 I need an INSIDER to post his articles from time to time. smiley: nerd
This contest has a website. Every Sat, the picks are posted up for that Sundays games and it gives you a rundown on
 which line was taken how many times. Many in this contest are sharps/wiseguys. (Lines are from Tuesday so there will be movement)

Here is the link and check it out every Sat. : http://www.lvhilton.com/Supercontest
post #14 of 15832
Thread Starter 
Damn Pro, my bad on not including you in the pm's. I looked a bunch of pages back and you weren't there; might have just missed you.

I will from now on try to post an article or something interesting from time to time. 

Bill Simmons from espn.com is involved in the Las Vegas SuperContest (every week pick 5 NFL games 
against the spread (ATS); 1500/entry) He also had periodic podcasts with Chad Millman, the website's gambling writer.
 I need an INSIDER to post his articles from time to time. smiley: nerd
This contest has a website. Every Sat, the picks are posted up for that Sundays games and it gives you a rundown on
 which line was taken how many times. Many in this contest are sharps/wiseguys. (Lines are from Tuesday so there will be movement)

Here is the link and check it out every Sat. : http://www.lvhilton.com/Supercontest
post #15 of 15832
I feel like this is probably something I should be doing.
post #16 of 15832
I feel like this is probably something I should be doing.
post #17 of 15832
The explanation is what I want to read. Not just posting the picks.

I'll have my picks for the weekend up a bit later.
VIKINGS | TIMBERWOLVES | MARINERS | TWINS | HUSKIES
Reply
VIKINGS | TIMBERWOLVES | MARINERS | TWINS | HUSKIES
Reply
post #18 of 15832
The explanation is what I want to read. Not just posting the picks.

I'll have my picks for the weekend up a bit later.
VIKINGS | TIMBERWOLVES | MARINERS | TWINS | HUSKIES
Reply
VIKINGS | TIMBERWOLVES | MARINERS | TWINS | HUSKIES
Reply
post #19 of 15832
we in here.

new thread hopefully will bring new money
post #20 of 15832
we in here.

new thread hopefully will bring new money
post #21 of 15832
What PM's?

I rarely posted in the old thread, I'll try to post some more in here. Haven't really been putting too much out there.

I'll get you guys the Insider articles as well.
post #22 of 15832
What PM's?

I rarely posted in the old thread, I'll try to post some more in here. Haven't really been putting too much out there.

I'll get you guys the Insider articles as well.
post #23 of 15832
i bet at a local so posting a ticket is out.......unless i take a cellphone pic of it every time but i don't have time for that and sometimes i'm posting on here on my phone laugh.gif

and long write ups? will not do......i'm to the point type of person....im not on here to convince you to follow me....i use this thread to track my progress to be honest laugh.gif and to celebrate/be pissed w/ other posters over a W or L roll.gif

but anyway....

lets get this money! pimp.gif
Pissing off plantation owners descendants nthat.gif 
Reply
Pissing off plantation owners descendants nthat.gif 
Reply
post #24 of 15832
i bet at a local so posting a ticket is out.......unless i take a cellphone pic of it every time but i don't have time for that and sometimes i'm posting on here on my phone laugh.gif

and long write ups? will not do......i'm to the point type of person....im not on here to convince you to follow me....i use this thread to track my progress to be honest laugh.gif and to celebrate/be pissed w/ other posters over a W or L roll.gif

but anyway....

lets get this money! pimp.gif
Pissing off plantation owners descendants nthat.gif 
Reply
Pissing off plantation owners descendants nthat.gif 
Reply
post #25 of 15832
To get this going a little since I've read some folks having a little trouble picking the games this weekend.

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Spoiler [+]
Bettors believe Drew Brees & Co. can't play two atrocious games in a row -- especially at home.

I'm proud of you. And you. And very, very proud of you, you, you and you. All of you degenerates out there have really impressed me.

Let me explain.

On Thursday afternoon I had a chat with legendary Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who runs the Lucky's sports books in Nevada. I was quizzing him for the NFL line moves column and asked him why the Bills had gotten early money against the Chiefs. His answer, "The public might be getting smarter."

Gimme a minute to regroup. He said the public might be getting smarter! That's you, Pipeline Pete and Rich from Jersey and Attila and even you, older crazy lady who keeps sending me suggestive hints on Twitter.

Vaccaro continued: "You would think we made a killing on the San Diego Chargers last weekend because the public usually chases dominant teams. But that hasn't been the case this season. Same with the New Orleans Saints-Cleveland Browns last weekend. That game opened at 14 and, last season, by the weekend, that number might have been at 14.5. But it closed at 12. Which meant in the last couple hours before kickoff even the public was playing the Browns."

This has had an interesting impact on how wiseguys play their game, too. Remember, part of their strategy has always been anticipating what you, John Q. Public, will do in certain games. That helps them decide when to buy certain games. But this season, with the public not automatically laying high-profile favorites, the dogs are getting played much earlier than ever before.

And, well, that makes me very proud of all of you. So let's get to the line moves.

Matchup: Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions
Line moves: Lions opened at minus-1, currently favored by 3.
Vaccaro says that means: "Stafford coming back and the Redskins playing the second of back-to-back road games is why guys jumped on this. Plus, the Lions are the NFL's best against the spread this season. [Editor's note: Lions and Jets are an NFL-best 5-1.] I thought we would get early money on the Lions, and when you get games in the 1 and 1.5 category and get a limit bet you will skip over the 2 and go right to 3. We opened at 1 and took a big bet at 1.5 and it kept coming in dribs and drabs on the Lions. Now we have it at minus-3. We look for the point where wiseguys will buy back, and I think this is the number."

Matchup: Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Line moves: Jets opened at minus-4.5, currently at minus-6.
Vaccaro says that means: "We opened at 4.5 and we took a small bet on the Jets at that number. I already favored New York so I moved it to 5.5. It's a dead zone and there's no reason to stop at 5 if you are already leaning one way. I kept it at 5.5 even when most other books were at 6 because I didn't want to move on air. When you're bookmaking sometimes you want to juggle the numbers so you can get a little action. Then I got a limit bet at minus-5.5 and moved it to 6. That is where it's painted right now."

Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Line moves: Chiefs opened at minus-9, currently favored by 7.5.
Vaccaro says that means: "This is an interesting case, unique to this year. In the old days that wiseguys played the favorites early in the week because that's where the best value was. They waited on the dogs because the public tends to bet favorites, so those numbers might go up. This season, as soon as the sharps see a dog number, they take it. So when this opened at 9 it was gone almost immediately. Even though it's one of the better teams versus a bad team, they knew this would be the optimum number. It's a change in strategy from this season."

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders
Line moves: Raiders opened at minus-1.5, currently at minus-2.5.
Vaccaro says that means: "Seattle is playing a lot better and [head coach Pete] Carroll has gotten this team competitive. But beating the Bears on the road isn't as impressive as it seemed two weeks ago. And you have to give the Raiders credit for the shellacking they laid on the Broncos. So that's why this jumped -- but remember, while it's a full point move, it doesn't take much to go from 1.5 to 2.5. And if this number does get to 3 you will immediately see some buyback from the sharps. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this closed close to where it opened, because the public still won't bet on the Raiders."

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Line moves: Game opened at pick, Saints currently favored by one.
Vaccaro says that means: "I thought there would be a slam-dunk move on the Steelers early in the week. But there is the Aaron Smith injury. And there are also some other players who are less well-known but sharps know are valuable that are hurt right now. Combine that with the theory that bettors think the Saints can't play two horrendous games in a row, especially at home. For what it's worth, I'm not convinced of that. We had their Super Bowl future odds longer than most other books before the season started."

post #26 of 15832
To get this going a little since I've read some folks having a little trouble picking the games this weekend.

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Spoiler [+]
Bettors believe Drew Brees & Co. can't play two atrocious games in a row -- especially at home.

I'm proud of you. And you. And very, very proud of you, you, you and you. All of you degenerates out there have really impressed me.

Let me explain.

On Thursday afternoon I had a chat with legendary Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who runs the Lucky's sports books in Nevada. I was quizzing him for the NFL line moves column and asked him why the Bills had gotten early money against the Chiefs. His answer, "The public might be getting smarter."

Gimme a minute to regroup. He said the public might be getting smarter! That's you, Pipeline Pete and Rich from Jersey and Attila and even you, older crazy lady who keeps sending me suggestive hints on Twitter.

Vaccaro continued: "You would think we made a killing on the San Diego Chargers last weekend because the public usually chases dominant teams. But that hasn't been the case this season. Same with the New Orleans Saints-Cleveland Browns last weekend. That game opened at 14 and, last season, by the weekend, that number might have been at 14.5. But it closed at 12. Which meant in the last couple hours before kickoff even the public was playing the Browns."

This has had an interesting impact on how wiseguys play their game, too. Remember, part of their strategy has always been anticipating what you, John Q. Public, will do in certain games. That helps them decide when to buy certain games. But this season, with the public not automatically laying high-profile favorites, the dogs are getting played much earlier than ever before.

And, well, that makes me very proud of all of you. So let's get to the line moves.

Matchup: Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions
Line moves: Lions opened at minus-1, currently favored by 3.
Vaccaro says that means: "Stafford coming back and the Redskins playing the second of back-to-back road games is why guys jumped on this. Plus, the Lions are the NFL's best against the spread this season. [Editor's note: Lions and Jets are an NFL-best 5-1.] I thought we would get early money on the Lions, and when you get games in the 1 and 1.5 category and get a limit bet you will skip over the 2 and go right to 3. We opened at 1 and took a big bet at 1.5 and it kept coming in dribs and drabs on the Lions. Now we have it at minus-3. We look for the point where wiseguys will buy back, and I think this is the number."

Matchup: Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Line moves: Jets opened at minus-4.5, currently at minus-6.
Vaccaro says that means: "We opened at 4.5 and we took a small bet on the Jets at that number. I already favored New York so I moved it to 5.5. It's a dead zone and there's no reason to stop at 5 if you are already leaning one way. I kept it at 5.5 even when most other books were at 6 because I didn't want to move on air. When you're bookmaking sometimes you want to juggle the numbers so you can get a little action. Then I got a limit bet at minus-5.5 and moved it to 6. That is where it's painted right now."

Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Line moves: Chiefs opened at minus-9, currently favored by 7.5.
Vaccaro says that means: "This is an interesting case, unique to this year. In the old days that wiseguys played the favorites early in the week because that's where the best value was. They waited on the dogs because the public tends to bet favorites, so those numbers might go up. This season, as soon as the sharps see a dog number, they take it. So when this opened at 9 it was gone almost immediately. Even though it's one of the better teams versus a bad team, they knew this would be the optimum number. It's a change in strategy from this season."

Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders
Line moves: Raiders opened at minus-1.5, currently at minus-2.5.
Vaccaro says that means: "Seattle is playing a lot better and [head coach Pete] Carroll has gotten this team competitive. But beating the Bears on the road isn't as impressive as it seemed two weeks ago. And you have to give the Raiders credit for the shellacking they laid on the Broncos. So that's why this jumped -- but remember, while it's a full point move, it doesn't take much to go from 1.5 to 2.5. And if this number does get to 3 you will immediately see some buyback from the sharps. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this closed close to where it opened, because the public still won't bet on the Raiders."

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Line moves: Game opened at pick, Saints currently favored by one.
Vaccaro says that means: "I thought there would be a slam-dunk move on the Steelers early in the week. But there is the Aaron Smith injury. And there are also some other players who are less well-known but sharps know are valuable that are hurt right now. Combine that with the theory that bettors think the Saints can't play two horrendous games in a row, especially at home. For what it's worth, I'm not convinced of that. We had their Super Bowl future odds longer than most other books before the season started."

post #27 of 15832
Thread Starter 
^Nah, you've been okay. At least you post early leans and that kind of stuff. Maybe a tidbit or something. Paul's done it pretty well last couple of weeks.

Iono about cellphone pics laugh.gif
post #28 of 15832
Thread Starter 
^Nah, you've been okay. At least you post early leans and that kind of stuff. Maybe a tidbit or something. Paul's done it pretty well last couple of weeks.

Iono about cellphone pics laugh.gif
post #29 of 15832
Pick center on ESPN.

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Spoiler [+]

This Week's Games

Game AccuScore TeamRankings.com Line
@
OKST 36.6
KSU 27.6
Win OKST
Cover KSU
5.0
@
MIA 32.1
UVA 21.2
Win MIA
Cover UVA
14.5
@
TENN 19
SCAR 35
Win SCAR
Cover SCAR
-17.5
@
MSU 20.7
IOWA 31
Win IOWA
Cover IOWA
-6.5
@
ARIZ 32.4
UCLA 20.6
Win ARIZ
Cover ARIZ
9.0
@
MIZZ 21.2
NEB 31.6
Win NEB
Cover MIZZ
-7.5
@
AUB 35.9
MISS 29.5
Win AUB
Cover MISS
7.0
@
UK 27.7
MSST 30.4
Win MSST
Cover UK
-6.0
@
VAN 19.4
ARK 36.4
Win ARK
Cover ARK
-20.0
@
BAY 23.4
TEX 32.8
Win TEX
Cover BAY
-7.0
@
STAN 38
WASH 26.8
Win STAN
Cover WASH
7.0
@
UTAH 32.4
AFA 21.7
Win UTAH
Cover UTAH
7.0
@
ORE 37.7
USC 26.9
Win ORE
Cover USC
6.5
@
OSU 41.7
MINN 12.4
Win OSU
Cover OSU
25.5
@
COLO 16.5
OKLA 41.5
Win OKLA
Cover OKLA
-23.5
@
USU 21
NEV 43.3
Win NEV
Cover NEV
-26.0
@
TCU 48.6
UNLV 10.3
Win TCU
Cover UNLV
34.5
@
LT 13.6
BSU 54.9
Win BSU
Cover BSU
-37.0
@
FSU 33.7
NCST 27.4
Win FSU
Cover FSU
4.0
post #30 of 15832
Pick center on ESPN.

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Spoiler [+]

This Week's Games

Game AccuScore TeamRankings.com Line
@
OKST 36.6
KSU 27.6
Win OKST
Cover KSU
5.0
@
MIA 32.1
UVA 21.2
Win MIA
Cover UVA
14.5
@
TENN 19
SCAR 35
Win SCAR
Cover SCAR
-17.5
@
MSU 20.7
IOWA 31
Win IOWA
Cover IOWA
-6.5
@
ARIZ 32.4
UCLA 20.6
Win ARIZ
Cover ARIZ
9.0
@
MIZZ 21.2
NEB 31.6
Win NEB
Cover MIZZ
-7.5
@
AUB 35.9
MISS 29.5
Win AUB
Cover MISS
7.0
@
UK 27.7
MSST 30.4
Win MSST
Cover UK
-6.0
@
VAN 19.4
ARK 36.4
Win ARK
Cover ARK
-20.0
@
BAY 23.4
TEX 32.8
Win TEX
Cover BAY
-7.0
@
STAN 38
WASH 26.8
Win STAN
Cover WASH
7.0
@
UTAH 32.4
AFA 21.7
Win UTAH
Cover UTAH
7.0
@
ORE 37.7
USC 26.9
Win ORE
Cover USC
6.5
@
OSU 41.7
MINN 12.4
Win OSU
Cover OSU
25.5
@
COLO 16.5
OKLA 41.5
Win OKLA
Cover OKLA
-23.5
@
USU 21
NEV 43.3
Win NEV
Cover NEV
-26.0
@
TCU 48.6
UNLV 10.3
Win TCU
Cover UNLV
34.5
@
LT 13.6
BSU 54.9
Win BSU
Cover BSU
-37.0
@
FSU 33.7
NCST 27.4
Win FSU
Cover FSU
4.0
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