***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

Did a two team parlay for the 12 o clock games.

ECU +10
Bowling Green + 11

Both won outright :smokin

Got a single on Arkansas by a point right now.

Up by a TD at half.
 
Glad I held out. GA playing like it's 2010.

Bills +1 over Phins...what yall think?

Even if I bet it, I won't put it in my main parlay.
 
Just because that parlay hit... The trend today has been climb the rankings by any means and capitalize on some of these miss matches... and i feel good about these. Would have taken Florida 17½

Texas A&M -33½
USC -17½
Penn State -3½
UCLA -8½
Navy -7
Texas A&M -33½
 
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That feeling when you bet on a +1000 dog for fun and it hits.

In my case, I took Aston Villa a week ago.
 
UCLA screwed me over again. Figured that they could cover a seven point spread but this team is wildly overrated.
 
Easy money i think
Parlay
Miami -1 vs Buff
Tenn -3 vs Dallas
Az -3 vs NY
Texans -3 vs Oak

Im deciding which 3 are the most cant miss
 
fraij da 5 11 said:
Doing well in NFL so far...


Tomorrow:


Bengals - 5.5

Chargers +6

Jags+6
Click to expand...

Love these.


I was just gonna bring up the public overreaction to the previous weeks game vs. a bettors understanding of why lines are made the way they are

I asked my friend on his thoughts on the UCLA/Texas game today and he strongly suggested UCLA would roll. Without ever mentioning gambling he told me this and I loosely experimented with his "public" knowledge and laid money (small amount) on Texas because he shares that public opinion that most people have, based on the recency effect (a real psychological "thing" that NT brings to the forefront weekly). I won the bet. Not to say that it's that easy, but it's pretty much a fundamental philosophy of sharps, that is, go against the public.

Just thought I'd share this...Might be a "duh" kind of mention, but I really feel like a bettors perspective makes us look at things in a more objective, open-minded way. Having said that, in the NFL, no spread is too big...Mostly.

The picks that fraij posted can be 1. attested to the fact that he knows his ****, but 2. that those plays all go against public perception.

Falcons thoroughly impressed against a team a lot of people have going to the SB. Natural reaction is to say they roll against a Cincy team that struggled versus a Ravens team that still holds a recent perception of great defense/above average O. In this "on paper" scenario, Falcons kill them....Nah. There's more, but that's the jist.

TLDR, cut short, you can do your own analysis on those other two games and come up with similar scenarios...

Just my two cents that I've learned over the years about not just winning one week, but in the long run.
 
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PacificNorseWst said:
fraij da 5 11 said:
Doing well in NFL so far...


Tomorrow:


Bengals - 5.5

Chargers +6

Jags+6
Click to expand...

Love these.


I was just gonna bring up the public overreaction to the previous weeks game vs. a bettors understanding of why lines are made the way they are

I asked my friend on his thoughts on the UCLA/Texas game today and he strongly suggested UCLA would roll. Without ever mentioning gambling he told me this and I loosely experimented with his "public" knowledge and laid money (small amount) on Texas because he shares that public opinion that most people have, based on the recency effect (a real psychological "thing" that NT brings to the forefront weekly). I won the bet. Not to say that it's that easy, but it's pretty much a fundamental philosophy of sharps, that is, go against the public.

Just thought I'd share this...Might be a "duh" kind of mention, but I really feel like a bettors perspective makes us look at things in a more objective, open-minded way. Having said that, in the NFL, no spread is too big...Mostly.

The picks that fraij posted can be 1. attested to the fact that he knows his ****, but 2. that those plays all go against public perception.

Falcons thoroughly impressed against a team a lot of people have going to the SB. Natural reaction is to say they roll against a Cincy team that struggled versus a Ravens team that still holds a recent perception of great defense/above average O. In this "on paper" scenario, Falcons kill them....Nah. There's more, but that's the jist.

TLDR, cut short, you can do your own analysis on those other two games and come up with similar scenarios...

Just my two cents that I've learned over the years about not just winning one week, but in the long run.
Click to expand...

This. You need a unique mix of skepticism and confidence to detect these fades.
 
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PacificNorseWst said:
Love these.


I was just gonna bring up the public overreaction to the previous weeks game vs. a bettors understanding of why lines are made the way they are

I asked my friend on his thoughts on the UCLA/Texas game today and he strongly suggested UCLA would roll. Without ever mentioning gambling he told me this and I loosely experimented with his "public" knowledge and laid money (small amount) on Texas because he shares that public opinion that most people have, based on the recency effect (a real psychological "thing" that NT brings to the forefront weekly). I won the bet. Not to say that it's that easy, but it's pretty much a fundamental philosophy of sharps, that is, go against the public.

Just thought I'd share this...Might be a "duh" kind of mention, but I really feel like a bettors perspective makes us look at things in a more objective, open-minded way. Having said that, in the NFL, no spread is too big...Mostly.

The picks that fraij posted can be 1. attested to the fact that he knows his ****, but 2. that those plays all go against public perception.

Falcons thoroughly impressed against a team a lot of people have going to the SB. Natural reaction is to say they roll against a Cincy team that struggled versus a Ravens team that still holds a recent perception of great defense/above average O. In this "on paper" scenario, Falcons kill them....Nah. There's more, but that's the jist.

TLDR, cut short, you can do your own analysis on those other two games and come up with similar scenarios...

Just my two cents that I've learned over the years about not just winning one week, but in the long run.
Click to expand...
amen brother amen. 

Another public over reaction from week 1 are the Houston Texans

That final score between the Texans and Washington game could be the most misleading final score from week 1 aside from the Oakland - New York game. Houston's defense definitely deserves all the credit for that week 1 win, that offense looked atrocious and their run defense let possibly the slowest back in the game Morris average 6.5 yards a carry and Helu 11.5 yac.
They go into Oakland as 3 point favorites and although Oakland looked absolutely terrible against New York, Metlife Stadium is not a easy place to play and that Jet's defense is nothing short of respectable.
Public will be all over Houston in this one, i would not be surprised if Oakland covered here... possible let down spot for Houston, home opener for Oakland, both offenses look terrible... rookie qb facing JJ Watt.... new offense led by Fitzpatrick... the under is worth a look at.
 
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3 other games i like, Bills -1 , Saints - 6 , Cincy -5.5

Dolphins - Bills
I like the Bills here... Public is all over Miami after their efforts in week 1 shutting out the Pats in the second half, but the injuries they're suffering at the linebacker position will hurt them against this Buffalo run game. Buffalo coming off a huge week 1 win in overtime returning home with a chance to go 2-0, while Miami is coming off a rather comfortable win traveling up north huge climate change, facing a division rival in a a stadium they usually struggle in.

Saints - Browns
It's well known that the Saints tend to struggle on the road but getting them at -6 off of a loss facing a possible 0-2 situation with Brees at the helm against a team who gave up 27 points in the first half to the Steelers, this one's hard to pass up.

Atlanta - Cincy
Public loves offense and Atlanta has plenty of it. Unfortunately they still yield a horrible pass defense which spells trouble for them especially against a team who's back is heavily involved in the pass offense along with AJ Green being one of the league's best threats outside the numbers. Cincy also has one of the best front 4's in the league at applying pressure on the qb it also took Flacco 62 passing attempts to net 329 yards which i feel the high amount of passing attempts is what this Cincy D wants as the pressure from the front 4 rushes the QB and forces them into bad decisions and as you know Atlanta's offense is pass heavy.. Despite Matty Ice's career high performance, that week 1 win in ATL is not all that impressive having to pull one out their *** in OT... allowing NO 6 trips to the redzone converting on 4 of them, committing 10 penalties for 96 yards, 0 sacks. This team lacks discipline and needs to improve on defense.
 
after a disappointing night last night I'm going to rock with the Saints & Patriots ML and parlay those two picks. I also have a small unit on Miami. Have a strong day fellas
 
Patriots/Vikings line has been all over the place. Currently down to 3.5. That's crazy. I liked Minnesota a lot before the AP new, but now I probably don't touch it.
 
5-0 Nfl this year.

Washington Rskins -5
Dallas Cowboys +3.5


Bonus little teaser
New England Patriots +4.5
San Francisco 49ers +3.5
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
 
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