2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[worldbeefreeg]

Rays gonna pony up for Price now you think?

If Jennings takes the next step this year, Longoria has an MVP caliber season and Myers contributes, Rays gonns be

Yankees/Sox cellar-dwellers

 

[proshares]

They'll do something for Price. I can see them trading Hellickson though.

Longoria needs to show he can stop being so injury prone every season.

The difference between the #1 team and #5 team in that division will be tiny. Toughest division by far year in a year out and it's about to get even worse this year.

 

[abovelegit1]

Yankees/Sox cellar-dwellers

One can only hope. Would be glorious, but I think the Yanks will be in the mix, as usual. Incredibly difficult to project, atm.

 

[kevin cleveland]

I always !+%*#$ with Mark Reynolds.

Especially playing first base or no position at all, and at that price. I liked him just a little bit more than Youkilis for the Indians. It'll be frustrating, but without Hafner and Sizemore healthy for years, there hasn't really been anyone in the lineup that I felt like could come up and put a three-spot on the board in any given at-bat. And he even walks as much as Youkilis, which I guess I didn't realize.

I got to enjoy it for about three minutes, then James Shields walked into the division. But I guess I should be happy about that deal, long-term.

 

[jjs07]

This is ******g gold



Came across it on BLS blog

Baseball Card Vandals

 

[abovelegit1]

could come up and put a three-spot on the board in any given at-bat.

It sounds a lot better in theory than in practice. But I'll always root for him because of his stretch run last season, and I am a bit fond of the Tribe, so I hope it works out.



Like Greinke for LAD, even at that price since it seems they've stopped caring about trivial things like money and profit. Always thought that anxiety stuff was overstated. His stuff will play anywhere, let alone in that cavernous park.

 

[proshares]

Wade Davis the key to trade for K.C.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

As soon as Wade Davis saw Andrew Friedman's phone number pop up on his caller ID on Sunday evening, he knew what it meant even before answering. Friedman explained that Davis had been traded, and the two spoke heartfelt words. Davis really likes the Tampa Bay Rays' general manager, and how he has been treated. "He's been really awesome to my family," Davis told me over the phone Monday.



Davis then spoke with Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore, who told him flatly that the Royals acquired him to be part of their rotation -- a role that Davis once had with the Rays, and something that he wants again. "I've been champing at the bit to step back into starting," said Davis.



He is the real wild card in this trade. James Shields has a long-established résumé as a frontline starter and Wil Myers, the centerpiece of the deal for Tampa Bay, is widely regarded as an elite prospect. If Davis ascends into a quality starter, as a complement to Shields and Jeremy Guthrie, the Royals' rotation will look very different, in a division in which lineups are generally weaker than in the AL East.



At the end of a spring training competition last year, Matt Moore beat out Davis for the No. 5 spot in the Rays' rotation, and Davis went to the bullpen and spent the summer learning about his delivery. While most starting pitchers have one bullpen session between starts, relievers throw much more often -- almost every day. Through the repetition, Davis explained, he smoothed out his delivery, eliminating his tendency to throw across his body.



As a starter, Davis had trouble keeping the ball low and away from right-handed hitters, an extremely important spot for any right-handed pitcher. In 29 starts for the Rays in 2010, he had gone 12-10 with a 4.07 ERA, and then in 2011, he was 11-10 with a 4.45 ERA.



But through that relievers' repetition, Davis was able to get to that down-and-away spot much more consistently, and he had a lot of success, striking out 87 in 70⅓ innings, with a 2.43 ERA. Starting versus relieving is oranges to apples, but his understanding of his mechanics seemed to work for him. In 2011, right-handed hitters batted .245 against him, with 50 strikeouts in 362 at-bats. In 2012, right-handed hitters had 142 at-bats against him, and he struck out 50 and held them to a .211 batting average, with 11 walks.

Davis also felt as though he learned about how to employ a cutter, which, for right-handed pitchers, can be an especially good weapon against left-handed hitters; in 2012, lefties had 112 at-bats against him and generated just three doubles and zero homers, with a .161 batting average. The improvement, he believes, was a matter of the collective changes he made.



"I had better velocity, and sharper command," he said.



Davis and Shields exchanged texts about the deal, and they'll have more time to talk later -- about finding a place in Kansas City, or their new teammates, or new catcher Salvador Perez, whom Davis watched during the season and recognized an ability to receive the ball well.



"It looks like it's a pretty good team, to have James and the guys in the bullpen," said Davis. "It looks pretty solid all the way through. I'm excited."



For Davis, the Royals now become a place of opportunity, to apply all that he learned about himself last summer.

The big deal


The Royals were extremely impressed by Shields' win-now attitude.



Wil Myers is excited to join the Rays. Jake Odorizzi sees a real positive in the trade to the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.



The Rays' players accept the small-market realities. Tom Jones gives five reasons why the trade had to be made.



In talking with rival evaluators, this is picture they painted about the three main players acquired in the deal by Tampa Bay:

• Jake Odorizzi has a lot of pitching tools at his disposal, and he's now figuring out how to use them. His lack of overpowering stuff probably means he'll be slotted somewhere in the back half of a rotation.



• Mike Montgomery is said by scouts to have a big arm -- and serious command trouble, which explains how his ERA has been just under six runs per game over the past two seasons. One comparison I heard is to Matt Thornton of the White Sox; if Montgomery can tackle his control issue, he could have some impact in the big leagues. He has generated a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks in his pro career.



• Wil Myers is a high-end talent, in the eyes of rival clubs, because of his power and his ability to get on base. "But he's not without his flaws," said one GM, noting the 140 strikeouts in the minors last year. "Plus, holes are exposed at the next level."



Yes, they are. Myers has been ranked as the No. 3 prospect overall in some projections. Consider the players rated as No. 3 by the highly respected Baseball America in the five-year period from 2006-2010:

2006: Brandon Wood
2007: Delmon Young
2008: Joba Chamberlain
2009: Colby Rasmus
2010: Giancarlo Stanton



Stanton has become a star; some haven't. That's not a knock on Baseball America; it's just a reflection of the reality that there is still some mystery in the projections of young players.


It's understandable why Royals fans don't like the trade.

• Tampa Bay needs a catcher and some offense, and A.J. Pierzynski remains unsigned. In some ways, he could be a fit, although rival evaluators don't have good things to say about his defense. One respected agent who has been canvassing the catching market thinks that eventually, there will be a reunion of Pierzynski with the White Sox this winter.



Around the league


• Now that the Dodgers have finished the Zack Greinke deal, they probably have finished their search for starting pitching -- unless something unexpected pops up, according to sources. And they can go about the process of marketing some of their surplus rotation guys, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang.



The Dodgers have interest in Joel Hanrahan, and now that the Pirates have signed Jason Grilli, perhaps the Bucs will follow up on the talks they had with other clubs at the GM meetings, when they made it clear they would listen to offers for Hanrahan.



The Dodgers are rolling the dice on a pitcher from Korea, writes Bill Plaschke. The Dodgers will soon be ready to talk to Clayton Kershaw about an extension, writes Dylan Hernandez.



• The Cleveland Indians are still looking for the right deal for Asdrubal Cabrera, writes Paul Hoynes, and talked at the winter meetings about a swap of Cabrera to the Phillies. As written here last week, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers and Indians came very close to finishing a deal that would've resulted in Cabrera going to the Diamondbacks and Justin Upton going to the Rangers.



• The Yankees expect to finish a deal with Ichiro Suzuki sometime in the next couple of days.



• The New York Mets are looking to offer $25 million over three years to R.A. Dickey, including his $5 million salary for 2013, writes Andy Martino.

In the eyes of some rival evaluators: Dickey's desire for a two-year deal in the range of $26 million to $28 million is very fair. Think about it this way: With Dickey just one year from free agency, the Mets have been asking teams for difference-making prospects in their trade discussions, like Wil Myers. So why wouldn't the Mets be willing to pay him like a difference-maker?



Hiroki Kuroda will make $15 million in 2013, Andy Pettitte $12 million, Zack Greinke $24.5 million, Dan Haren $13 million, Joe Blanton $7.5 million. Dickey asking for $13 million is hardly an outlier.



Dickey has at least one more assignment with the Mets.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. The Detroit Tigers signed a backup catcher.



2. Ryan Ludwick is really happy to be back with the Cincinnati Reds.



3. Walt Jocketty has kept the Reds' rotation together.



4. The White Sox are actively seeking a left-handed bat.


5. The Brewers have been used by free agents to get rich elsewhere. From Tom Haudricourt's story:


Looking for a second consecutive division crown, Brewers owner Mark Attanasio stretched his payroll to a franchise-record $100 million in 2012. He lost that gamble when the team sputtered at midseason and dropped from the playoff race. Despite a late push by the Brewers, attendance dropped from 3.07 million to 2.83 million, and the Brewers finished well in the red for the year.



Those financial losses prompted Attanasio to lower his budget significantly for 2013. Melvin said he expected the team's payroll to be about $80 million or slightly above, depending on what personnel opportunities arise.

Other teams say Milwaukee continues to be willing to talk about Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart for pitching.



6. Kevin Correia is set to join the Minnesota Twins on a two-year deal.



7. The Twins hired Doug Mientkiewicz to manage in the minors.



8. The Washington Nationals' plans haven't changed.



9. The Mets are kicking the tires on Cody Ross.



10. Jon Lester wasn't enough for the Red Sox to make a Wil Myers trade, writes John Tomase.



11. Scott Boras says he is talking with teams other than the Oakland Athletics about Stephen Drew. And the Athletics are talking about shortstops other than Drew, such as Jed Lowrie and Hiroyuki Nakajima. It would make a lot of sense for Drew to return to Oakland, which has a chance to be pretty good next season, but there is more haggling to be done.



12. Jason Bay is another piece to the puzzle for the Mariners, but a bigger piece must come, writes Larry Stone.

Rumors.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

South Side return unlikely for A.J.
10:57
AM ETA.J. Pierzynski | White Sox Recommend0Comments0EmailWhite Sox general manager Rick Hahn continues to look for a lefthanded bat and says he is in regular contact with representatives for A.J. Pierzynski, but all signs point to the catcher playing elsewhere in 2013, says Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune.

The 35-year-old Pierzynski posted solid .278/.326/.501 numbers last season for the White Sox, earning a reasonable $6 million. The White Sox, however, seem content to finally hand the catching duties over to Tyler Flowers.

The Yankees, Mets and Rays are among the teams interested in a catching upgrade, but one reason teams may be a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal is Pierzynski's sometimes abrasive personality, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

"I know it worked in Chicago," an AL GM tells Cafardo, "but if it doesn't work with a whole group of new pitchers and teammates, it could be disruptive."

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Chicago White Sox, A.J. Pierzynski
A's, Drew still talking
10:40
AM ETStephen Drew | Athletics Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Oakland Athletics continue to negotiate with free agent shortstop Stephen Drew, but a deal may not get done quickly, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Agent Scott Boras has a history of waiting until January to complete deals and that could happen with Drew, although the A's remain the frontrunner for his services. Slusser suggests Drew should easily top the $7.75 million annual figure the infielder earned in 2012.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers also have been linked to the 29-year-old Drew, who finished last season in Oakland following a trade with Arizona.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Stephen Drew, Oakland Athletics
Could the Red Sox land Hamilton?
10:16
AM ETJosh Hamilton | Rangers Recommend0Comments4EmailOne school of thought regarding Josh Hamilton says the Rangers could not pull off a Texas two-step and land both the former AL MVP and free agent Zack Greinke. We saw Greinke take his talents to Hollywood over the weekend, so maybe this is the time that the Rangers make a more aggressive play for Hamilton.

But the winter meetings are over and Christmas is just two weeks away, so if and when will the Rangers make their move? In the meantime, the Boston Red Sox remain in a holding pattern on Hamilton, says Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.

Edes reports the Red Sox won't make offer a Hamilton a deal in the six-year range the outfielder covets, but Boston remains in the mix if the former MVP settles for a deal of a shorter duration. Boston reportedly has been willing to offer three years, but a baseball source tells Edes it is "doubtful" that the Sox could sign Hamilton for fewer than four years.

The Rangers, Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers all have been linked to Hamilton at some point, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Friday that the New York Yankees have quietly ran a background check on Hamilton, suggesting they could have some interest after all.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted Sunday the Yankees are not pursuing Hamilton at this point, and would only get involved if the outfielder fell into their lap.

Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com has a different take:

- Doug Mittler



Andrew Marchand
Are the Yankees acting coy?

"As for Josh Hamilton, the Yankees cannot be ruled out. They could add Hamilton, while still reaching their goal of a $189 million payroll by 2014. In part of this potential equation, the Yankees could simply let Curtis Granderson leave after this season or deal him. Granderson is owed $15 million in 2013. If the Yankees were to trade Granderson and sign Hamilton, they would essentially be dealing Granderson for Hamilton and whatever players they received in a Granderson transaction. It actually makes a lot of sense, if the Yankees come to the conclusion Hamilton can handle New York. Yankees officials have acted lukewarm to the idea, but they might be acting coy."
Tags:Texas Rangers, Josh Hamilton, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
Who's on first in Baltimore?
9:55
AM ETBaltimore Orioles Recommend0Comments0EmailIf the Baltimore Orioles fail to land a first baseman, manager Buck Showalter is comfortable giving the job to Chris Davis with Wilson Betemit as the backup, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com.

In the meantime, general manager Dan Duquette continues to search for another bat either at first base or at DH. But the free agent market at first base is very thin beyond Adam LaRoche, who wants to stay with the Nationals but has yet to sign a deal. Maybe the Orioles will pursue free agent Ty Wigginton, who played in Baltimore in 2009 and 2010.

Kubatko says there has been no indication the club would consider shifting Nick Markakis or Nolan Reimold at first base to provide an outfield spot for Davis.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
Tribe open to Cabrera deal
9:26
AM ETAsdrubal Cabrera | Indians Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Cleveland Indians continue to pursue the right deal for shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and are looking for at least one starter in return, writes Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.

At the winter meetings, Hoynes reports the Tribe and the Phillies discussed a trade that would have sent Cabrera to Philadelphia for right-hander Vance Worley and prospects. The Phils balked when the Indians asked to sweeten deal and Worley ended up in Minnesota.

The best chance for a deal might reside out west. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com says a three-team deal between the Rangers, Diamondbacks and Indians that would have sent Cabrera to Arizona was very close to completion at the winter meetings. That deal would have sent either lefty Patrick Corbin or righty Trevor Bauer from Arizona to Cleveland.

The Rangers are very interested in D-backs outfielder Justin Upton, and Cabrera could be a key component if any deal extends beyond two teams.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Asdrubal Cabrera, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians
Why BOS-KC deal couldn't happen
8:50
AM ETBoston Red Sox Recommend0Comments1EmailA week before the Kansas City Royals pulled the trigger on the blockbuster deal that sent prized outfield prospect Wil Myers to Tampa Bay for James Shields and Wade Davis, there were reports KC had talked to the Boston Red Sox about Jon Lester.

The Red Sox were quick to dismiss any notion of dealing Lester, and Jon Tomase of the Boston Herald writes Tuesday the Sox would have been unable to pull off the type of trade the Royals were pursuing. The Red Sox could have dangled Lester, but did not have the flexibility to surrender a major league-ready combo similar to Shields and Davis.

Tomase says the Red Sox might have endured a fan and media backlash by unloading another veteran player after dealing away the likes of Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett, among others.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Jon Lester, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox
Ichiro's role in 2013
8:21
AM ETIchiro Suzuki | Yankees Recommend0Comments2EmailThe chances of Ichiro Suzuki returning to the Bronx seemed to fluctuate over the past few weeks. It was no secret that the 10-time All-Star, who enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence with the New York Yankees late last summer, was interested in returning, although the stalled pace of the talks may have prompted him to look elsewhere.

But with Christmas two weeks away, the Yankees are in hot pursuit of Ichiro and the two sides are expected to finalize a one-year deal this week, reports Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com.

The 39-year-old Ichiro hit .322 -- and posted an impressive .794 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) -- in his 67 games with the Yankees, suggesting the 39-year-old outfielder isn't yet finished. With Nick Swisher expected to sign elsewhere, Ichiro figures to be the everyday right fielder.


Marchand says a deal for Ichiro would not preclude the Yankees from continuing to seek offers for center fielder Curtis Granderson. With Ichiro in the fold, the Yankees have more options.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:New York Yankees, Ichiro Suzuki
Available free agent starters
8:07
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments14EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHPJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionRyan Dempster, RHPBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHPShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPThis year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.

Until the news on Greinke's agreement with the Dodgers broke late Saturday, it was clear that the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters one, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees).

Now that Greinke, who was not only the top arm in free agency but also in the middle of his prime, has set the top end of the pitching market, though, expect the likes of Sanchez, Lohse and Jackson to sign sooner than later.

The big x factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in Sunday's blockbuster. That takes the Royals out of the list of eligible suitors, but still leaves plenty of teams looking for pitching, including the Cubs, Brewers, Twins and Rangers.

- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
$30M a year for Kershaw?
7:59
AM ETClayton Kershaw | Dodgers Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to pay Zack Greinke an average annual salary of $24.5 million over the next six years. With that in mind, what will current LA ace Clayton Kershaw be worth when his current deal expires?

Some baseball executives and agents are wondering whether Kershaw could become the first pitcher to earn $30 million per year, writes Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

The 24-year-old Kershaw, who is five years younger than Greinke, is heading into the second year of a two-year, $19-million contract and won't become a free agent until after the 2014 season.

Kershaw said in late August he would be open to discussing a new deal this winter, and Hernandez says the Dodgers will approach the southpaw "in the near future" to talk about a long-term contract extension. Those talks will likely include Greinke's $24.5 million deal as a floor, not a ceiling.

Kershaw has a sterling 2.79 ERA and a Cy Young Award over his first five seasons, so he is bargaining from a position of strength. But he did have hip problems late last season, which could make him more inclined to seek some security.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mets up offer to Dickey
7:23
AM ETR.A. Dickey | Mets Recommend0Comments14EmailThe New York Mets announced Monday that R.A. Dickey would attend Tuesday's annual holiday party for schoolchildren and play an elf alongside Ike Davis.

Dickey's decision to do his best Will Ferrell impersonation is no small deal. If the contract extension talks between the Mets and Dickey were truly acrimonious, it seems unlikely the knuckleballer would attend the event and face a grilling from the media.

In fact, the two sides may be getting closer to a deal after talks appeared to stall at last week's winter meetings. While still refusing to rule out a trade, the Mets are the process of increasing its offer to the Cy Young Award winner to approximately three years and $25 million, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

The breakdown would be about $10 million per season on top of the $5 million the knuckleballer is scheduled to make in 2013. Dickey reportedly was asking for a two-year extension of $26 million for 2014 and 2015, so the sides are obviously in the same ballpark.

A Dickey trade remains a viable option despite the progress in extension talks. The Texas Rangers are looking for a front-line pitcher after missing out on Zack Greinke and James Shields, both of whom who landed elsewhere over the weekend. But the Mets continue to drive a hard bargain and have made it clear to the Rangers that if they want Dickey, it would need to part with more than just highly regarded third base prospect Mike Olt.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:R.A. Dickey, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Mike Olt
Yankees waiting on Youkilis
6:50
AM ETKevin Youkilis | White Sox Recommend0Comments10EmailThe New York Yankees are serious about landing Kevin Youkilis. The agent for the free agent third baseman admitted as much on Monday.

The agent, Joe Bick, tells Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com his client is "seriously considering" an offer from the Yankees that is considered "very legitimate."

The buzz at the winter meetings had the Yankees offering Youkilis a one-year deal worth $12 million. The question now is exactly how long the Yankees keep the offer on the table.

The chances of the Yankees landing Youkilis may have increased with word that the Cleveland Indians have agreed to a one-year contract with free agent slugger Mark Reynolds.

So with one serious suitor down, the Yankees' odds on Youkilis may have improved, reports Anthony McCarron and Christian Red of the New York Daily News.

The Yankees are in the market for a third baseman to replace Alex Rodriguez, who will miss the start of the season following hip surgery. The Mariners and Dodgers are among the teams that also have reportedly shown interest in Youkilis, so he still has some leverage.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:New York Yankees, Kevin Youkilis
Morning line on Wainwright
6:43
AM ETAdam Wainwright | Cardinals Recommend0Comments0EmailAmong those who should be taking close notes on Zack Greinke's six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers is Cardinals righthander Adam Wainwright, who hits the free agent market after next season.

Wainwright put his injury-plagued past behind him with a 14-13 record and a 3.94 ERA in 2012, coming within two frames of his fourth 200-inning season. MLB.com's Jenufer Langosch predicts Wainwright could command an average annual salary of at least $20 million, but it is highly unlikely the Cardinals would offer anything close to the six years the Dodgers gave Greinke.

As we saw this fall by their decision to pass on Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals will not overpay, even after a career year. While Wainwright, who owns a 3.15 career ERA, wants to return, Langosch says the pitcher is unlikely to give a substantial hometown discount.

- Doug Mittler

 

[proshares]

Do the Rays Need Offensive Help?

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Tampa Bay Rays may be great at pitching and defense, but they do not score many runs… Right? MLB Trade Rumors thinks so:

The Rays could address multiple needs by dealing a top-of-the-rotation starter. Their offense ranked 18th in MLB in runs scored, so there’s clearly room for improvement.

-Ben Nicholson-Smith, 10/31/12

ESPN suggested just as much:

…[Justin] Upton would give Rays a badly needed presence in the middle of their lineup.

-Buster Olney, 11/11/12

And even in the sabermetric sphere, we tend to hold that axiom:

Alas, the Rays’ hitting was an entirely different story, as they finished just 11th in the league in scoring. Yes, they certainly were undone by crummy luck in close games. But the crummy luck might have gone largely unnoticed if the Rays had scored 30 or 40 more runs.

-Rob Neyer, 10/27/12

But the consensus does not gel with the very leaderboards that ranked them the No. 8 MLB offense in 2012, according to wRC+. The disconnect between popular perception and the reality of their past and future production comes from two key sources: (1) Three especially cold months of run production in 2012 and (2) the under-appreciated pitcher’s haven, Tropicana Field.

The Chicago White Sox scored 748 runs in 2012. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox scored 734. But the Rays scored only 697. Only three AL teams scored fewer runs. So why does wRC+ name Tampa Bay as the 5th best offense in the AL?

Tropicana Field, among AL stadiums not named Safeco, has the lowest rate of homeruns per game and the second largest foul territory in the majors. And unlike stadiums such as O.co Coliseum, where the ample foul territory rests behind home plate and the corner bases, the Trop’s foul territory extends deep into the outfield.

This affects runs in two key ways: (1) Outfielders can make outs that would be foul in any other stadium; (2) outfielders can remain in a sprint longer and turn in play balls into outs because there is no wall to smash into (in fact, the wall is not only far away, it is low enough to hurdle or roll over, if a player so chooses). Since a hitter is more likely to hit a fly ball than a popup, extra outfield space has, at least in theory, a greater negative effect on run scoring than does more behind-the-bases foul territory.

Whenever the national media comes to Tropicana Field, the broadcast crew invariably discusses the catwalks and the unusual ground rules for them. One might suspect, given the fanfare around this architectural oddity, the Rays play in a pinball version of the Homer Dome. But the four home runs the catwalks caused in 2012 are a fingernail scratch on the armored personnel carrier that is Tropicana’s home-run-suppressing, foul-out-inducing dimensions.

If I am making it sound like the Rays play in one of the most pitcher-friendly, hitter-mean parks in the league, then good. They do. Since 2008, the Trop has consistently ranked among the top five ballparks in suppressing run scoring, so when they plate less than 700 runs in a season, it is not necessarily a red flag.

But more than just the misperception — or lack of perspective — regarding the Trop, the Rays’ cold stretch in 2012 helped create a aura of bad offensive ability.

At the end of April, the Rays had the second-best record in the AL and led their division by a game. Then, with the league watching the AL East closely — with Boston struggling, Baltimore excelling, and the Yankees somewhere in between — the Rays offense went cold. Carlos Pena, Desmond Jennings, Luke Scott, and even Ben Zobrist — all of them had their coldest months in May through July. Scott struggled with injuries in June, putting up a negative wRC+, but then managed to mash in July. Zobrist had his only below-average month in May and had his second-worst month of 2012 in July.

All of this might have been mitigated, however, if Evan Longoria had not been rehabbing a severe hamstring injury. But on April 30th, while sliding into second base, Longoria crumpled into a painful forecast of the team’s next three months.



That is not to suggest Longoria’s absence alone cause these three cold months. It took many more regulars playing beneath expectation for the Rays to create their underwhelming mid-season offense. And it was not until Longoria returned that the Rays accomplished their most amazing feet. Four of their five 1-0 losses came after Longoria’s rehab (although five of their seven 2-0, 2-1 losses came with Sean Rodriguez, Drew Sutton, et al. manning third base).

But these three rough months had impressive bookends. Carlos Pena killed the ball in both his first and final months; Evan Longoria, when healthy, smashed a 146 wRC+; and even Desmond Jennings plopped a 142 wRC+ into the August games. The Rays offense is not bad; it is more boom-and-bust.

As Dave Studeman recently noted, the Rays had one of the best run differentials in the league and under-performed to the tune of 5 wins — the gap, we should note, between them and the first-place Yankees. But since their hitters have such a high strikeout rate (21.7%) and low BABIP (.284) — both consistent trends since 2008 — pitchers with solid control and home run suppressing talent can often avoid the team’s biggest snares: drawing walks, stealing bases, and hitting homers (10th best HR-rate in 2012, 9th best since 200.

It is an incorrect assumption to look Rays and think they need offense based on their 2012 performance. Given their ballpark and looking at the season as a whole, we find a team who scored a decent amount of runs relative to their stadium. Yes, they were shut out five times, including a perfect game, but they also scored double-digit runs ten times, including eight shutouts where they scored five or more runs.

It is equally incorrect to realize the Rays had a decent offense in 2012 and then assume it will be decent in 2013. However, there is reason to think it can be better. Both Luke Scott and Carlos Pena had unimpressive seasons, posting sub-100 wRC+ from the 1B and DH positions; Desmond Jennings is one year older and closer to his prime; Evan Longoria, though still a health concern, finished 2012 strong; Sean Rodriguez and Ryan Roberts both played below their established norms.

Indeed, B.J. Upton and his career 107 wRC+ are gone, but by July they will be essentially replaced by Wil Myers, who has the potential to be a better hitter than Upton has ever been (thought probably not right away). Moreover, Yunel Escobar‘s career 103 wRC+ has a good shot at improving the Rays’ uninspired shortstop production from Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez. And yes, James Loney is coming off a terrible year, but so was Casey Kotchman in 2011 — and in 2012, Jeff Keppinger was coming off a terrible career. That is not to suggest Loney will have some BABIP luck or do any better than his career 103 wRC+ numbers, but it at least leaves the door open to Loney improving upon Pena’s 98 wRC+ in 2012.

The Rays still have an impressive gap in the designated hitter slot, though. The James Shields trade freed some $10 million, but some of that cash might go to snaring a January reliever — the discounted types the Rays have hit so well on in the past. But they should have the capacity to add a veteran slugger from the relatively plump 1B/OF/DH market. Or they could just as easily platoon Sam Fuld and a RHH outfielder (likely Brandon Guyer) in left field or give Ryan Roberts every day PA while cycling the DH using R/L and GB/FB platoon splits to select the DH — a technique Joe Maddon has mastered over the preceding years.

All told, the Rays offense has not been as bad as it seems, and it could be just one man away from being one of the better ones in the league.

San Francisco Giants Top 15 Prospects (2012-2013).

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Giants organization possesses some strong prospects at the top of the list, as well as solid pitching depth. But the overall depth in the system is somewhat thin. It’s not a result of poor drafting or inept talent evaluation – it’s actually the complete opposite. The organization has wisely leveraged its assets to acquire key playoff contributors, such as Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, and Marco Scutaro. It has also seen key prospects, such as Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, and Brandon Belt, zoom through the minors and fill holes on the big league roster. It’s easy to see why this club has won the World Series in two of the past three seasons.


#1 Kyle Crick (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 23 22 111.1 75 1 10.35 5.42 2.51 3.15

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (49th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Crick has quickly become the Giants’ best prospect after being selected 49th overall during the 2011 draft out of a Texas high school. Crick, 20, has a strong pitcher’s frame and the velocity to match. He struck out 128 batters in 111.1 innings at the A-ball level in 2012.

A scout I spoke with said the right-hander is definitely a potential front-line starter with premium power, as well as a potentially-plus cutter/slider. “He’s a great athlete for a big guy… and you can’t teach that kind of velocity,” he said. “His delivery is pretty easy and the ball really jumps out of his hand… The fastball is on top of them [before they know it].” Crick also a solid downward plane on his pitches, which results in poor contact, and he also has some deception.

On the down side, the scout said Crick tries to be too fine at times and needs to trust his stuff more. “He is really, really hard to hit,” he said.”He tries to make the perfect pitch but he doesn’t need to. His stuff is more than good enough.” Crick should open 2013 in high-A ball but could easily reach double-A by the end of the year and could see the majors by the end of 2014.


#2 Clayton Blackburn (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 22 22 131.1 116 3 9.80 1.23 2.54 1.91

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2011 draft (16th round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Blackburn, who played high school ball in Oklahoma, represents a perfect example of the value of good scouting. A 16th round draft pick, the right-hander has quickly become one of the most promising arms in the system. He sits atop the Giants system along with fellow pitching prospect Kyle Crick but as one scout pointed out, they’re quite different in their approaches when it comes to power versus pitchability. “They do it extremely differently but they’re very good for each other… They now understand that there are other ways to [pitch successfully].” Blackburn spent the entire 2012 regular season in A-ball at the age of 19, showing impressive control with just 19 walks in 131.1 innings of work. As one contact stated, “He will make you hit his pitch.”

Blackburn also struck out 143 batters and produced well-above-average ground ball rates. He possesses a four-pitch mix with above-average control and solid command. He also features a potentially-plus curveball, slider and changeup. Another contact stated, “[Blackburn] has a good feel for pitching.” He has solid-average velocity on his fastball that touches 93 mph but possesses good movement, which helps him induce ground balls. Blackburn also has a curveball, slider, and changeup. He has an easy delivery but a bit of a funky arm action at times. He has a big, strong frame that should be capable of providing tons of innings but he’s going to have to keep an eye on his conditioning.

The pitching prospect should move up to high-A ball to open the 2013 regular season but could easily reach double-A before the end of the year. I personally saw Blackburn make a one-game, post-season start at the high-A level for San Jose last September and he struck out nine batters with just three hits allowed in 7.0 innings of work. He has the ceiling of an innings-eating No. 3 starter.


#3 Chris Stratton (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
21 8 5 16.1 14 1 8.82 5.51 2.76 4.24

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: SS
Acquired: 2012 draft (20th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Taken 20th overall in the 2012 draft, Stratton has a four-pitch mix that could help him develop into a solid No. 3 starter at the big league level. His fastball sits in the 90-95 mph range and his second best pitch is his slider, followed by his curveball and nascent changeup. He needs to make sure that he keeps a good angle on the ball and works down in the zone. Stratton isn’t flashy but as one talent evaluator put it, “He has a good feel on the mound. He pitches aggressively and can get a strikeout when he needs it.”

The Mississippi State alum appeared in eight games after turning pro and did not allow a run in his final five appearances, although he was 22 playing in short-season ball. Stratton’s season ended when he was hit in the head by a line drive and suffered a concussion. He’s expected to be healthy for spring training and could open up the year in high-A ball along with fellow pitching prospects Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn. Stratton has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter who should move swiftly through the minors as long as the injury issues are behind him.


#4 Gary Brown (OF)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
23 680 170 34 7 45 101 35 .282 .348 .384 .336

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (24th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The Giants’ top pick from the 2010 draft, Brown has not developed quite as quickly as hoped. After an above-average offensive season in the California League in 2011, the speedster came back down to earth this past season as his wRC+ dropped from 138 to 104. His base running also took a step backward and he was caught 18 times in 51 attempts. After the season ended, the prospect headed to the Arizona Fall League where he hit .313 in 17 games but continued to struggle stealing bases.

Brown has just enough gap power in his swing — thanks to above-average bat speed and strong wrists — to mess with his head. He needs to focus more on developing his small ball skills to take advantage of his greatest offensive tool — his speed. Despite his struggles, a contact I spoke with said Brown is very talented, “He has the ability to be very good both offensively and defensively.” The center-field prospect is raw for a college product but the contact was not worried about his development. “He has plus make-up plus the wherewithal to take those tools and turn them into skills.” On the plus side, Brown is a very good defender and shows plus range with a solid-average arm.

He should open 2013 in triple-A and he could receive an offensive boost from the Pacific Coast League, similar to the impact he saw while playing in the Cal League. Projections on Brown are mixed, ranging anywhere from fourth outfielder to all-star. I personally see him becoming a second-division regular who fails to fully develop his tool set.


#5 Heath Hembree (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
23 52 0 51.0 37 3 9.35 4.24 4.06 3.53

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: 2010 draft (5th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Hembree, 23, has quietly developed into one of the best high-leverage relief prospects in the game. A contact stated, “He’s thrown the ball well every year… and he’s moved quickly.” The big, strong durable right-hander has the make-up to succeed in a high-stress role and he pumps in mid-90s fastballs and shows easy velocity. He also features a potentially-plus slider and fringe changeup.

Hembree spent the 2012 season in triple-A but pitched just 38 innings in 39 appearances. It’s a curious limitation because the lack of work will not help him iron out the control issues that he has (4.74 BB/9). On the plus side, he was assigned to the Arizona Fall League and made another nine appearances and struck out 12 batters in nine innings. The former fifth round draft pick out of the College of Charleston and is close to MLB ready after just three minor league seasons. Hembree will likely return to triple-A to begin 2013 but could be one of the first pitchers recalled in the event of an injury in the bullpen


#6 Mike Kickham (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
23 28 27 150.2 119 8 8.18 4.48 3.05 3.60

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (6th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Kickham doesn’t have quite the same fastball velocity that fellow southpaw Josh Osich has but it still touches 94 mph and he has a chance to stick in the starting rotation. He also has better secondary stuff: a plus slider, average curveball and developing changeup. Kickham has a strong pitcher’s frame and pitched 150 innings in 2012 but he’s battled blister issues in the past.

The lefty spent all of 2012 in double-A when he produced very impressive numbers, including a strikeout rate of 8.18 K/9 and an above-average ground-ball rate. He should open 2013 in triple-A. With San Francisco’s pitching depth, Kickham’s big league hopes likely hinge on an injury to the big league staff and he could possibly make his debut out of the bullpen. He has the ceiling of a No. 4 starter.


#7 Josh Osich (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
23 27 2 32.1 34 1 9.46 3.06 3.62 2.52

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (6th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Osich is a hard-throwing southpaw that can reach 95-96 mph. I see Osich’s floor as being a good situational lefty who, as a talent evaluator aptly stated when asked about the prospect, “can blow away a good left-handed hitter.” His ceiling, though, is a high-leverage big league reliever if he can develop his secondary pitches – a slider and changeup – both of which currently project as average offerings.

Osich was slowed by an oblique injury in 2012 and that has been the story of both his pro and amateur career while on the mound. He had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and came out of a key game shortly before the 2011 draft due to elbow issues. He spent last season pitching in California League, surviving the hostile offensive environment despite his fly-ball tendencies. He showed solid control but still needs to work on his fastball command. He should move up to double-A in 2013 and will look to stay healthy. He could reach the majors in 2014.


#8 Joe Panik (SS)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 693 175 27 8 68 61 14 .285 .359 .385 .339

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (29th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Panik, 22, enjoyed a solid offensive season thanks to the California League. He hit for average and controlled the strike zone well, walking more than he struck out. Because he handles the bat so successfully, the former first round draft pick could develop into a solid No. 2 hitter. A scout I spoke with about the prospect also suggested that he should be somewhat resistant to slumps. “There may be players with more raw bat speed and strength but Joe is and always has been tremendously cerebral in his approach,” he said. “When you hit that way, you’ll never go into a prolonged slump.”

Defensively, the talent evaluator I spoke with felt that Panik can play shortstop at the big league level, although others have questioned both his range and arm. “From a technical standpoint, I think Joe can be a solid, everyday shortstop at the major league level,” he said. “Joe always just knew how to play. He has instincts and actions, knows his position and has first step quickness laterally. “

The scout suggested 2013 will be a big season for Panik as he heads to double-A “I really think this upcoming year in the most important, to date, in Joe’s career. Anyone who has played professionally and most scouts will tell you that the jump from A to double-A is the most difficult a player will face… Now, however, he may be confronted with some form of failure for the first time. The players who brush that off and learn from it are the ones who keep progressing.”


#9 Andrew Susac (C)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 426 88 16 9 55 100 1 .244 .351 .380 .334

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2011 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Although his 2012 numbers might have you thinking otherwise, Susac is an offensive-minded catching prospect with the potential to develop average defensive skills. He shows good gap power to all fields and has pull home run power. He hit just nine homers last year but suffered a broken hamate bone in his junior year of college so it’s possible the injury continued to hamper him at least earlier in the year.

A contact also stated that Susac’s development may have been stunted by the large leap from college to high-A ball, as well as his defensive responsibilities. “I think it weighed on him a bit… He had to develop two big skills. I think, mentally, catchers get fatigued.” Because he swings and misses a lot, Susac may never hit for a high average in the majors but he shows enough potential to project as an everyday player.

A strong spring could push the California native to double-A but he might be well-served by repeating high-A ball for the first month or two in an effort to build up his confidence, while also working to tighten up his approach. Susac could be ready for the majors in late 2014. With Buster Posey ahead of him, there is plenty of time to let him develop at his own pace, or to use him as trade bait.



#10 Francisco Peguero (OF)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR
24 16 0 3 .188 .188 .188 .166 -1 4.6 0.4

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA/MLB
Acquired: 2005 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Peguero is another solid international signing but he hasn’t exactly been a quick mover. Originally signed way back in 2005, the outfielder is entering his eighth pro season and reached triple-A and the majors for the first time in 2012. Although he’s always hit for average, it’s taken time for the prospect to iron out the other aspects of his game. He’s also battled injuries and as one contact put it, “I think this is the first time he’ll be 100% healthy [opening the year].”

Power is not a big part of Peguero’s game but that same contact said he possesses the best bat speed in the organization. It helps him compensate for an aggressive approach at the plate that also includes poor pitch selection. Although Peguero may never possess more than average offensive production, he’s a plus defender with a plus arm that profiles well in right field.

He also has the range necessary to play center field, at least on a part-time basis. He has the ability to steal a few bases but he’s got a slow first step. The re-signing of Angel Pagan almost certainly assures that Peguero will open 2013 back in triple-A, although a strong spring could force the organization to consider him as a complement to the left-handed hitting Gregor Blanco.


#11 Edwin Escobar (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 22 22 130.2 122 7 8.40 2.20 3.03 2.92

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 Trade (Texas Rangers)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Escobar was acquired from the Texas Rangers in a rather under-the-radar trade back in early 2010 for then-fringe-pitching-prospect Ben Snyder. Although he originally signed in 2008, the southpaw did not reach full season ball until this past year and he had a successful season. Not overly physical, Escobar saw his innings total jump from 52.0 in 2011 to 130.2 in 2012 so that bears watching going forward – although he has yet to suffer a serious injury of note.

Although he works in the 88-92 mph range, I had a contact advise me that the Venezuela native was clocked up to 94 mph in 2012. Escobar also features a curveball and changeup, both of which show potential. He shows solid control for his age and improving command but the big question for him will be his ability to get tough right-handed hitters out.

If he cannot develop a reliable out-pitch, Escobar will probably end up in the bullpen but he has the chance to become a No. 3 or 4 starter. He’ll move up to high-A ball in 2013 and, if he has another successful year, will have to be added to the 40-man roster after the season.


#12 Adalberto Mejia (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 30 14 106.2 122 4 6.67 1.77 3.97 2.91

Opening Day Age: 19
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: A+

The Giants have spent some serious coin on international free agents in the past but Mejia is one of San Francisco’s better, under-the-radar Latin signees. Still just 19, a contact I spoke with was impressed wit the young pitcher. He said Mejia already sits 88-92 mph with his fastball and could eventually hit the mid-90s. He also shows two promising secondary pitches is a changeup and curveball. “He’s going to have a major league curveball,” the contact said. Mejia also has above-average control for his age (21 walks in 106.2IP) and also has a good understanding of what he needs to do on the mound.

The left-handed Dominican native spent 2012 in A-ball and had a fairly successful first season in full-season ball. He’s still working to polish the command of his fastball, which is why his strikeout numbers have been modest. After working out of the bullpen early in 2012, Mejia should move up to high-A ball in 2013 and work exclusively out of the starting rotation. He should expect to see his innings total increase to the 130 range, if healthy. He won’t turn 20 until part way through the season so there is no need to rush Mejia – especially with the pitching depth ahead of him. The San Jose staff could be absolutely stacked this year with the likes of Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton, Edwin Escobar, and Mejia.


#13 Ehire Adrianza (SS)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 512 99 22 3 41 90 16 .220 .289 .310 .276

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2006 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Although his bat has yet to develop, Adrianza continues to hang around the Top 15 list because of the lack of up-the-middle player depth in the system and his plus defensive skills. The gifted fielder hit just .220 with a miserable 64 wRC+ in double-A in 2012. Even with an 8% walk rate, the prospect managed an on-base percentage of just .289. Adrianza, 23, will very likely never hit enough to play everyday but he should be a solid defense-first utility infielder – and those with the ability to flash a true above-average glove at shortstop are difficult to come by.

The San Francisco organization remains hopeful in the prospect because he’s a switch-hitter and it has taken a fair bit of time for him to add strength to his slender frame. The Venezuela native has yet to play a regular season professional game at any other position than shortstop but it might be in the organization’s best interest to start moving him around the diamond in an effort to prepare him for his future role off the bench. Adrianza will likely head back to double-A to open 2013 but he could reach the majors at some point during the season if/when injuries strike.


#14 Roger Kieschnick (OF)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
25 263 69 14 15 24 73 0 .295 .361 .581 .398

Opening Day Age: 26
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: 2008 draft (3rd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

Kieschnick has value as a left-handed power hitting prospect but he’ll likely end up coming off the bench or working as the busier half of a platoon at an outfield corner spot. I was told that he was close to receiving a call-up to the eventual World Series champions but got hurt and appeared in just 55 games. “He was having a monster year before he banged into a fence,” the contact stated. Kieschnick has worked to make up for lost time this off-season by playing in the Dominican Winter League.

As mentioned, Kieschnick’s best tool is his left-handed power and he should hit for a respectable average if handled appropriately. He has a chance to be a decent corner outfielder and has a solid-average arm for right field. Kieschnick, 25, doesn’t have a clear opening for a big league role in 2013 so he’ll likely head back down to triple-A to continue to work on tightening up his strike zone control.


#15 Adam Duvall (3B)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
23 598 137 24 30 47 116 8 .257 .325 .485 .349

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: A+
Acquired: 2010 draft (11th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Duvall had one of the best power-hitting performances of 2012 in the potent California League. He led the division in home runs (30) and was in the Top 10 in isolated slugging rate. The slugger could stand to incorporate his lower half more into his swing, which could actually help him tap into even more consistent power. He currently utilizes bat speed and strong forearms/wrists to muscle the ball out.

The infielder has played third base in the minors but there is doubt about his ability to stick at the hot corner. His range is below-average and he makes too many throwing errors, although he flashes a strong arm. A contact I spoke to felt Duvall could stick at the position because his issues are mechanical and correctable. Despite that opinion, I feel his future is likely at first base, although his arm will be wasted there.

Duvall was a little old for the league and will face a stiff test when he moves up to the double-A Eastern League; the league is much tougher on power hitters with only four batters hit more than 20 dingers in 2012. This could force Duvall to either improve upon other aspects of his game or wash out.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Taking the Dodgers to the Extreme.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

On Saturday, the Los Angeles Dodgers gave one of the biggest contracts in baseball history to Zack Greinke. On Sunday, the Dodgers gave a big contract to Ryu Hyun-Jin, who has never before pitched in the majors. The Dodgers still might not even be done, and neither of the moves this weekend came as a surprise, because as we’ve established, the Dodgers have all of the money. The Dodgers have money and a baseball team, so it only makes sense that they would spend liberally to improve the baseball team. These Dodgers aren’t your daddy’s Dodgers. These Dodgers are your older brother’s Yankees.

As the Yankees have made a goal of exhibiting financial restraint, the Dodgers have been like “**** that” and they’re prepared to enter 2013 with the highest payroll that baseball’s ever seen. It was not very long ago that the Dodgers were bankrupt. Then there was the Hanley Ramirez trade. Remember the Hanley Ramirez trade? Then Brandon League, and Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton, and acquiring the Red Sox. Then Greinke. Then Ryu Hyun-Jin. Yasiel Puig was in there somewhere. So was an Andre Ethier extension. Of course, like everyone else, the Dodgers have their limits, but we’ve been given no indication that the limits are being approached.


What this is, first, is interesting. The Dodgers are basically like a cartoon, like something that can’t exist in real life. It’s as if they’re trying to make up for those years they had to track every penny. If there’s a free agent, and he’s good, you might as well figure the Dodgers have interest. If there’s a free agent, and he isn’t good, you can still make your jokes, because the Dodgers might sign everyone. It had been a little while since baseball had a team like this. And baseball has never had a team quite like this.

What this is, second, is interesting in a different way. Imagine yourself as a Dodgers fan, if you aren’t one already. It has to be all kinds of exciting to be in the middle of everything, so able to flex so many massive financial muscles. But now think about the coming season. The expectations are going to be lofty, the pressure on the team unlike the pressure on anyone else. Is it actually going to be fun to root for the Dodgers? What is the experience when winning feels required? I know that Yankees fans have had complaints in recent years. It’s easy for a high-priced team to start to feel soulless, and I don’t think we’re in it only for the winning.

What this is, third, is interesting in still another way. The Dodgers make one want to mess around with hypotheticals. The Dodgers, presumably, have limits. But what if the Dodgers don’t have limits, or at least not limits that can reasonably be approached? To what extent can the Dodgers “buy a championship”? Could they buy a 120-win team? Could they buy a 130-win team? What if the Dodgers were to have the highest-priced player at every position?

This is an extreme hypothetical, but I had to sate my curiosity. So I went into the numbers and built a 2012 roster based on the highest average annual values. I took the five highest-paid starting pitchers, and in the bullpen I quit after four since it’s not like the Dodgers could reasonably acquire seven proven, expensive closers. I also didn’t really fill out the bench since proven, good, expensive players wouldn’t volunteer to occupy a reserve role. This is only one team for one year, but the results are interesting, I think:

Position Players

C Joe Mauer
1B Ryan Howard
2B Dan Uggla
SS Jose Reyes
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Carl Crawford
CF Matt Kemp
RF Torii Hunter
OF Ichiro
OF PLAYER
Inf PLAYER
Inf PLAYER
C PLAYER

Pitchers

SP CC Sabathia
SP Cliff Lee
SP Johan Santana
SP Matt Cain
SP Tim Lincecum
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Jonathan Papelbon
RP Heath Bell
RP Joaquin Benoit
RP PLAYER
RP PLAYER
RP PLAYER

I gave the team Ichiro because Crawford missed a lot of time, but Ichiro had the same average annual value as Jayson Werth and Vernon Wells. It’s not really important. You could fill out the rest of the bench and the bullpen, but that also wouldn’t be really important. Where this gets interesting is when you start adding together the 2012 WAR. For pitchers, I used RA9-WAR, to capture what actually happened. I gave each unnamed bench player 1 WAR. I gave each unnamed reliever 0.5 WAR. Again, little details; not really important.

This group of players would’ve been good for about 49 WAR in 2012. You can give or take a few as you desire. The zero-WAR baseline comes out at 42.5 wins, meaning this group of players would’ve been expected to win about 92 games, give or take a few as you desire. A team that wins 92 games is a good baseball team, but it is not an extraordinarily good baseball team. The Giants actually won 94 games. If this team existed in 2012, it probably would’ve made the playoffs, but it wouldn’t have been a juggernaut.

Which goes to show how much and also how little practically limitless spending can accomplish. We still can’t predict player performance very well, nor can we predict which players will get hurt and which will remain durable. Long, expensive contracts frequently end up looking a lot worse at the end than they did at the beginning. There are better high-priced contracts than others, and the Dodgers might in theory spend more wisely, but on the other hand, Andre Ethier. Spending a ton of money everywhere greatly increases the odds that your baseball team will be good, but one needn’t be too concerned that the Dodgers will start buying championships. It’s not nearly that simple. The Dodgers have only so many roster spots, and players get worse and break down. Even the expensive ones.

It’s fun to entertain the idea of the Dodgers having the most expensive players at every position. If they’d done that in 2012, they would’ve been good, but they probably would’ve come up short of winning the World Series. Baseball is still sufficiently unpredictable that the Dodgers might never accomplish what they’ve set out to accomplish. To paraphrase so, so many people, they still have to play the games, and money can buy you only so much. Good luck to the Dodgers, because they, like everybody else, are going to need it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tim Beckham Has Left The Building.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

After the Rays traded for Yunel Escobar, I began working on a piece discussing prospect ETA’s and how off-season moves affected players like Tim Beckham. In it, I closed the door on Beckham and the Rays due to Ben Zobrist and his team friendly contract manning second base for the next three seasons.

With each read, I re-worked and lightened my wording because of Zobrist’s ability to play the outfield and the fact the Rays had an organizational hole to fill there. With the addition of uber-prospect Wil Myers, a right-fielder, consider the hole emphatically closed and punch Beckham’s bust card as well.
In 2009, I had the chance to see Tim Beckham in Savannah and chose a double-header scouting the former top pick over book end starts by Matt Moore and Jordan Lyles. At the time, it seemed like sound reasoning. Now, not so much. Shortly after scouting Beckham, I wrote a report on the teenage shortstop which drew the ire of the prospect community based on the summation below.

Amongst the few glimpses of what made Beckham the first overall pick in the 2008 draft were enough questions for me to downgrade his prospect status from pre-season elite to borderline top 100, if not lower. With his ability to stay at shortstop in doubt, along with questions surrounding his speed, is he a five-tool talent or tweener who may be forced off of the position which made him so valuable in the first place? As 2009 comes to a close, the Rays simply can’t be pleased with the early on field results of their six million dollar man.

2009 ended with Beckham posting a .717 OPS in Single-A — Not bad for a teenage prospect. 2010 saw him once again ranked in the top-100, albeit 40 spots lower than the year previous. In High-A, a .705 OPS indicated Beckham was at least able to maintain his so-so numbers as he advanced through the organization. In 2011, Beckham’s .736 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A was a modest improvement and an indication he still deserved to be part of the Rays future plans.

Then, the wheels fell off…

After a .204/.290/.278 line this past April, Beckham missed all of May and much of June serving a 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse. By the end of the season, his .686 OPS in 72 games proved disappointing. Add to this a sub par AFL performance where he appeared exclusively at second base and what’s left is a Tim Beckham whose value is at an all time low.

In 2013, Beckham will open the season in Triple-A as a 23-year old hoping to rebound. Regardless, the Rays have made moves indicating the organization has moved on from Beckham — permanently.

Yunel Escobar will play shortstop until Hak-Ju Lee, a top shortstop prospect previously acquired to compete with Beckham, is ready to assume the torch.

The addition of Wil Myers solidifies an outfield of tri0 including Matt Joyce and Desmond Jennings.

Ben Zobrist is the everyday second baseman.

From number one pick to organizational afterthought, Beckham’s fall from the prospect pantheon has been well documented. With his value reduced to nothing, it makes little sense for the organization to deal him. That’s unfortunate for Beckham as a change of scenery might be the best way to earn an extended look at the Major League level.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dodgers Spend Starter Money on Ryu Hyun-Jin.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

One move over the weekend is getting all the negative attention today, but there was another big acquisition that might have an even slimmer chance of working out for the organization in question: The Dodgers signed Korean lefty Ryu Hyun-Jin to a six-year, $36-million contract. When added to his $25.7 million posting fee, that outlay means that the Dodgers are locked into more than $60 million for a pitcher that hasn’t yet touched the minor leagues. That’s starter money, and it’s unclear that Ryu is a lock to be a starter. But, yah, it’s only money… right?

The comp that comes up most of the time is David Wells. And hey, it’s not a terrible comp. Wells had a four-pitch mix, threw with his left hand, didn’t have plus-plus velocity, and oh yeah, he was “stout” and quirky. Ryu checks in over 220 pounds even though he’s two inches shorter than Wells, and tales of his velocity have begun to tail off, up from he ‘maxes out at 95‘ to he ‘sits 88-91‘ from Keith Law most recently.

Of course, Ryu’s changeup is his best pitch, while Wells was known for his curveball. You can scout Ryu yourself with this youtube playlist put together by Dan at MyKBO.net if you like (The video embedded below probably has the best angle). And it’s a little early to say that Ryu has a four-pitch mix like wells. He throws four pitches, yes, but by most accounts, his slider is not exciting and his curveball may just be a lefty-on-lefty type of pitch that won’t solve a platoon issue if righties like his changeup.


See where this is going? Doubt. If you are as friendly as possible to the Dodgers, you still can’t erase that overwhelming sense of doubt that surrounds the confident, smiling young Korean. Let’s say you use $5.5 million per win this season, and then, as you eye that $1.5 billion in new TV money coming towards the existing $3 billion in player salaries, you say that the price per win will rocket forward 25% in 2014. Settle back in around 10% inflation, and you get dollars per win that look like this over the next few years: $5.5, $6.9, $7.6, $8.3, $9.2, $10.1. Ryu would still have to be worth over a win and a third per season to be worth $60 million, and that’s a feat only ten relievers have managed in the last six years.

If he’s a starter, the bar lowers precipitously. 108 starters have accrued seven and a half wins over the last six years, including young (non-ace) lefties like Jon Niese and Derek Holland. Barry Zito was close!

Asking the 25-year-old Ryu to be better than the post-peak Zito doesn’t seem like much, but remember back to the Korean’s arsenal. We “know” he has two pitches, and we hope he has three. Let’s call him a prospect — he hasn’t pitched in the bigs yet, after all — and then we also know that his bust rate would then be over 50%, even if he is immediately a top-ten prospect here.

It’s fair to say that Korea might be a step above American Double-A ball, but it’s also almost impossible to get a decent sample size for translations. There are only five current major leaguers that played in the KBO before, and Travis Blackley was the most prominent of the group. Blackley struck out 16% of the batters he saw with Oakland last year, and he struck out 21% of the batters he saw in Korea. Ryu struck out 24% of the batters he saw over his career. He was about a five-win pitcher by FIP last season. This is not a Yu Darvish situation.

Ryu is in his peak, most likely. He’s been healthy most of the years he’s pitched (even after Tommy John surgery in high school), and he hasn’t thrown gaudy innings totals. He has two good pitches and is well regarded by scouts in his region, and the curveball could be a good enough third pitch to make him a starter in the bigs. He might also be seventh on the current Dodgers’ rotation depth chart (Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley with Ted Lilly and Stephen Fife still kicking around), so he has some hurdles to overcome. If he falls just a little short, he’ll have to be better than Sean Marshall in the pen to make this contract worth while.

And though there are those that contend that the Dodgers are playing with monopoly money — their local television contract does outstrip the nearest contender by nine figures — that depth chart should tell you something. At some point, roster spots begin become scarce. Even the richest teams don’t want a $60 million man pitching to lefties in the seventh inning.

Wade Davis: Starting to Relieving to Starting Again.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Were you to read FanGraphs, and only FanGraphs, you might be led to believe there’s only one opinion one might have on Sunday’s trade between the Rays and the Royals. And that one opinion would be “that’s a bad trade, for the Royals.” Indeed, many feel that way, but many also do not feel that way, for reasons I won’t bother to get into. Those people don’t write here. While there’s a spectrum of thought on the deal, though, there’s one thing all opinions have in common: Wade Davis is kind of the forgotten guy. James Shields is the rotation ace the Royals were after. Wil Myers is maybe the top hitting prospect in baseball, and the other prospects are other prospects. But Davis is in there, and the Royals have plans for him. Big plans. Starting plans!

In 2012, Davis lost a spring-training rotation battle to Jeff Niemann, and shifted to relief. As a reliever, Davis came to excel, but all along there was talk the Rays still saw him as a starter long-term. Now Royals property, it appears as if Davis will be looked at as a starter. The Royals’ press release announcing the trade, at least, referred to Davis as a starter. This is a re-conversion that’s probably worth exploring.


Here are the easy details: Davis is 27 and right-handed. All 138 of his appearances in the minors were starts. As a starter, he was considered a top prospect. He never relieved as a professional until September 30, 2011, in the ALDS. He would only relieve in 2012, 54 times. He was great! From October:

Davis will likely be given a chance to return to the Rays’ rotation next season.

“He is what I would consider an above-average relief pitcher right now,” [coach Jim] Hickey said. “A guy you would trust at any point in the game to help you win a ballgame. He’s a guy I still view as a productive solid starting pitcher down the road, too.”

As a starter, between 2009-2011, Davis allowed a .330 wOBA. As a reliever, in 2012, Davis allowed a .254 wOBA. Opponents didn’t break a .200 batting average or a .300 slugging percentage. The whole thing was very successful, and now the Royals are hoping Davis took something out of that experience that will make him better for more innings.

On the one hand, it’s somewhat simple to project Davis as a starter, because he’s already been a starter in the major leagues 64 times. This isn’t like a C.J. Wilson situation, or a Daniel Bard situation, where it’s almost a complete mystery. Davis has an established starting baseline. Between 2009-2011, 163 different starters threw at least 200 innings. Here is where Davis ranked among them in certain categories:

Strikeout rate: 112
ERA-: 102
FIP-: 142
xFIP-: 140

By strikeout rate, Davis’ peers were guys like Bruce Chen and Kevin Millwood. By ERA, they were guys like Jason Marquis and Aaron Harang, and Davis pitched in a run-suppressing ballpark in front of terrific team defenses. By FIP and xFIP, Davis comes out looking relatively poor. He also comes out looking like Jeremy Hellickson, but there’s a reason Hellickson is considered such a mystery. Hellickson seems to be able to outpitch his peripherals. As a starter, Davis didn’t do that. He was mediocre.

So that’s Wade Davis as a starter, before. Even in the high minors, his strikeouts weren’t outstanding. They were outstanding in 2012 in relief, and one wonders: how did that come to be?

Well, you all know that most pitchers perform better out of the bullpen than they do out of the rotation. In relief, pitchers gain velocity, they get more of a margin of error with regard to their command, and they can ditch ineffective pitches if they want to. Davis, interestingly, didn’t change his repertoire in any meaningful way. His fastball, his slider, his curveball, his change — they were all thrown with more or less the same frequency as they were in 2011. Davis threw the same rate of strikes, and he generated the same rate of groundballs. But as a starter, Davis allowed about 86% contact. As a reliever, he allowed about 74% contact. That’s where the strikeouts came from. Davis got harder to hit!

Presumably because of this:

Fastball: 2+ mph gain
Slider: 3+ mph gain (or cutter, if you prefer)
Curveball: 2+ mph gain
Changeup: no gain (rarely thrown)

Davis started throwing harder, and the strikeouts followed. It’s all very intuitive. What’s even more interesting is that this didn’t happen immediately. Check out Davis’ fastball-velocity breakdown by month:

Month FB Velo.
April 91.7
May 92.3
June 94.0
July 94.3
August 94.1
Sep/Oct 94.9

Things took off in June. Let’s refer to this, somewhat arbitrarily and poetically, as The Watershed. Certain statistics of note:

Pre-Watershed: 20% strikeouts, 81% contact
Post-Watershed: 36% strikeouts, 71% contact

As Davis gained velocity, he nearly doubled his strikeout rate. We can’t prove a relationship from here but it seems pretty damn likely the two were connected. And it seems likely that what we’re seeing is Davis becoming comfortable in what had been an unfamiliar role out of spring training. Here you can read about Davis’ adjustments. Relieving is very different from starting, and Davis had to establish new routines. Once he did that, he became the most unhittable he’d ever been in his career.

So Davis came to flourish as a reliever. Now it seems he’s going to be asked to go back to being a starter. Davis claims to prefer starting over relieving, so he’ll welcome this opportunity, but there’s reason for skepticism. In the past, Davis wasn’t a particularly effective starter. His success in relief seems strongly tied to velocity gains, which he’ll give back in the rotation. It’s not like he developed a better changeup in relief. It’s unlikely his fastball command is suddenly a strength. The same things that caused Davis to struggle before presumably still exist. He got good, probably, because he threw hard. Now he’s going to throw less hard.

I’m not saying it isn’t worth trying, and I’m not saying it’s doomed to failure. Davis was a top prospect not long ago, and he has a broad-enough repertoire. It’s possible he gained valuable experience in the bullpen and better understands now how to put hitters away. He always struggled with that part of his game before. Maybe now he’ll be better able to reach back for something extra when he’s counting on a swing and miss. Maybe Davis won’t give back all of his strikeouts. Maybe Davis will be better.

But the two things we know about Wade Davis as a major leaguer are that he’s been a mediocre starter and an excellent reliever. Davis hasn’t started for a year, but the issues that were hidden under a blanket are probably still there, under the blanket. Now the Royals intend to pull the blanket. This’ll make for an interesting case study, but “interesting” and “successful” aren’t really synonyms.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

R.A. Dickey and the Myth of One Great Year.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Like many others, I’ve expressed some bewilderment on Twitter about how the Mets are handling their negotiations with R.A. Dickey. Dickey was one of the game’s best players in 2012, and the Mets were reportedly offering him the same kind of contract Joe Blanton just signed for, and have now improved their offer to make it equal to what Jeremy Guthrie just signed for. There’s a discount involved with signing an extension a year out from free agency, but the discount has to be reasonable, and these offers don’t strike me as overly reasonable. They don’t strike Dickey as overly reasonable either.

However, there’s a common retort from some folks whenever it is suggested that the Mets pay Dickey like a top-shelf starter. “It was just one year.” Here, see for yourself.

@redsoxbuzztap please stay away frm RA Dickey. He’s a one year wonder not worth the asking price!

— Greg Boucher (@gregjboucher) December 4, 2012


Though, I don’t think it is true. Bluejays do not trade J.P for R.A Dickey. One good year! Plus he’s 37.

— Jordon (@jordon_4) December 4, 2012


Not for a 38 yr old w/one good year RT @nydnharper Source says Mets could get speedy Dee Gordon & top pitching prospect Zach Lee for Dickey.

— DodgersBeat (@DodgersBeat) December 4, 2012


I really hope @bluejays don’t overpay for a guy that was good for one year (Dickey)

— Dustin Funk (@theFunkDust) December 10, 2012


Apparently, there’s this idea that pre-2012 R.A. Dickey was a worthless nothing, and after his fluke season, he’s headed right back to being a trick pitch sideshow. That idea is just hilariously wrong.

61 pitchers threw at least 350 innings between 2010 and 2011. During those two years, Dickey posted an ERA- of 81, meaning that he prevented runs at a rate 19 percent better than the league average. We’re using ERA- for Dickey because knuckleballers have a long exhibited history of being an exception to FIP, by the way. That put him squarely between Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and ahead of guys like Hiroki Kuroda, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and Mat Latos. Not bad company.

However, most of those guys had been a little more consistent than Dickey, and had a track record of excellent pitching prior to 2010. His success is a little newer, so if we’re going to look at a comp for Dickey, we need to find a guy who really established himself for the first time in 2010. Thankfully, there’s a highly touted ace who has performed at nearly the exact same level as Dickey in each of the last three years, and his track record in terms of run prevention is a dead on match for Dickey; that guy is named David Price.

It might sound like heresy, but take a look at their last three seasons side by side.

Season Name IP K/BB HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA- FIP- xFIP-
2010 David Price 208 2.38 0.65 0.270 79% 69 86 92
2010 R.A. Dickey 174 2.48 0.67 0.276 77% 73 94 94
2011 David Price 224 3.46 0.88 0.281 73% 90 86 82
2011 R.A. Dickey 208 2.48 0.78 0.278 75% 89 101 103
2012 David Price 211 3.47 0.68 0.285 81% 66 77 75
2012 R.A. Dickey 233 4.26 0.92 0.275 80% 72 87 84

They got there different ways, but it’s hard to tell 2010 Dickey from 2010 Price. Their K/BB, HR/9, BABIP, and LOB% are all basically the same, and not surprisingly, they both were among the league leaders in run prevention; Price ranked #7 in MLB in ERA-, Dickey was #10.

In 2011, both went backwards in terms of results, as they both gave up more hits and home runs which led to lower strand rates, and again, they basically posted the same ERA-, though this time, it represented good results rather than great ones. Price’s problems stranding runners masked his breakout, though, as he drastically cut his walk rate and improved his overall profile. Dickey kept doing his thing, looking like basically the same pitcher as before, just with fewer stranded runners.

Then, last year, both Dickey and Price put it all together. They were again among the league’s best at preventing runs, but both did it with dramatically better peripherals than in 2010. Rather than just having ace-like results, both pitched liked aces, and were honored with Cy Young Awards for completing their first season as a legitimate #1 starter.

Because Price is a former #1 pick who throws 95 MPH, there’s no skepticism about his track record. No one ever refers to David Price as a one year wonder. But yet, when you actually look at his performance over the last three years, it’s hard to make a case that he’s been any different than Dickey. Over the total of his last three seasons, Price has an ERA- of 75, while Dickey has an ERA- of 78. The full list of pitchers with an ERA- between 75 and 80 over the last three years: David Price, Cole Hamels, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, and R.A. Dickey. That’s his group of peers, not based on one great year, but on three excellent seasons where Dickey has been one of the game’s best starters.

Yes, he was better last year than he had been in prior years. So was David Price. If you’re going to call one of them a one year wonder, you have to call them both a fluke. Personally, I’ll just go the other direction, and call both of them elite starting pitchers, worthy of all the adulation you want to throw their way. And, in Dickey’s case, worth the contract he’s asking for. Just stop lowballing him and pay the man. He’s earned it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Royals Mortgage Future To Be Mediocre In 2013.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

In some ways, this post feels like a repeat. When rumors first surfaced that the Royals were considering shipping off Wil Myers to acquire a veteran starting pitcher, I wrote up my feelings on why that wasn’t such a great idea. If you want to see my full breakdown on swapping Myers for Shields, start there. The brief summary goes something like this; sure, the Royals need better pitching, but they also need better outfielders, and better infielders, and better everything. The Royals were not a particularly good baseball team last year, or the year before, or really any time in recent history.

They won 83 games back in 2003, the last time they had a winning season. Prior to that, you had to go back to 1993 to find a season where they won more games than they lost. Two winning seasons in 20 years can make a franchise desperate for respectability. And desperate teams often do desperate things. But I don’t think anyone saw the Royals doing something this desperate.

If you haven’t heard the news yet, the Royals agreed to trade OF Wil Myers, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard to Tampa Bay for RHP James Shields, RHP Wade Davis, and a PTBNL or cash. Whenever there’s “or cash” attached, you can be pretty sure the PTBNL is no one of note, so basically, the Royals traded their best prospect, their best pitching prospect, and two other talented youngsters for Shields and Davis.

The obvious comparison here is the Erik Bedard trade. Coming off an 88 win season, the Mariners decided to go for broke, shipping off prospects Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio along with reliever George Sherrill to acquire Bedard from the Orioles. The Mariners weren’t as close to winning as they thought they were, and after they won 61 games in 2008, the entire front office was fired and the organization went into a full scale rebuild. Bedard spent his two years in Seattle on and off the disabled list, while Jones has blossomed into one of the game’s best center fielders and Tillman continues to flash some potential as a young starter with a big league future.

That trade is generally regarded as the worst prospects-for-veteran swap in recent history. This might be worse.

Myers is a better prospect now than Jones was at the time he was dealt. He’s not a sure thing, of course — no player is, prospect, veteran, or otherwise — but he’s basically big league ready and has a promising future. The right-handed Jay Bruce comparisons aren’t too far off base. The concern about his contact rate can’t just be swept under the rug, but the power and athleticism are there, and he has a good enough approach at the plate that he can get on base at an adequate rate even if he hits .250. He’s probably something close to a +2 win player right now, and he has the ability to turn into one of the better right fielders in baseball.

Meanwhile, Odorizzi is a similar pitcher to Tillman, just at a more advanced level than Tillman was at the time of the deal. He’s more of a good-command-of-solid-stuff guy than a future ace, but he’s got a shot to be a pretty solid middle of the rotation starter. And, given that he’s already spent 100+ innings in Triple-A, his timeline for reaching the big leagues is significantly faster than Tillman’s was when Baltimore acquired him, since Tillman had split the prior season between low-A and high-A.

The additional pieces in the Bedard trade were a reliever, a relief prospect, and a 19-year-old A-ball arm with health problems. Sherrill, Butler, and Mickolio weren’t nothing, but they were more filler than serious value pieces. Meanwhile, the extra players going Tampa’s way have some real talent. Marc Hulet rated Montgomery as the Royals #2 prospect (behind Myers) before the 2012 season, and while he had a miserable season this past year, there’s clearly some talent there to be salvaged if the Rays can get him back on track. And Mike Newman just rated Patrick Leonard as the eighth best 3B prospect he saw this year, noting his power potential and the fact that he’s already showing some plate discipline at a young age.

Put simply, this is a better package of players than the Orioles got for Bedard. Which is good, because James Shields is better now than Bedard was then, and they’re also getting Wade Davis as well, but it is an undeniable fact that the Royals just paid a very, very steep price to make this trade.

And, unfortunately for Kansas City, it’s hard to see too many scenarios where adding Shields and Davis put them over the top for a playoff berth — the kind of result that would essentially be required to justify this kind of future-for-present trade. Last year, the Royals ranked 22nd in both wins (72) and WAR (+30, which suggests an expected W-L record of ~73 wins). This was not a team that drastically underachieved their on field play. They were bad at hitting, bad at fielding, and bad at pitching. Their bullpen was excellent – pretty much everything else was horrible.

James Shields will make their pitching better. Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie might too. Wade Davis could help, depending on how he’s used. The Royals pitching in 2013 should be a lot better than it was in 2012.

But that might be enough to make them an 80 win team instead of a 70 win team. Without Myers, they’re now stuck with a replacement level right fielder. They don’t really have a second baseman. Eric Hosmer has to take a huge step forward to just not be horrible. And even at positions like center field, shortstop, and third base, the in-house options are more interesting future pieces than impact present options. The Royals offense is basically Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and a lot of hopes and prayers. This is just not a team that was a couple of pitchers away from the postseason. This was a team that was a couple of pitchers away from not picking in the top 10 in next year’s draft.

If you squint hard enough, you can see the possibility of the Royals winning 90 games next year. If Hosmer takes a huge step forward, and Santana rebounds to 2011 form, and everyone stays healthy, and they win all 19 games they play against the Twins, but you can do that with 20 to 25 of the teams in Major League Baseball in any given year. It’s not impossible for the Royals to challenge the Tigers for the AL Central title in 2013, but it’s not likely either. There’s a difference between not agreeing to lose on purpose and giving up a huge chunk of your farm system in an ill-fated attempt to push up your timeline to win. The Royals have just done the latter.

This is the Royals pushing all-in on the short term future. If this team as constructed doesn’t win, it’s nearly impossible to see how Moore keeps his job past 2013. He’s spent most of the last seven years building up a vaunted farm system, and now he’s betting that the players it helped him acquire, along the with ones already in Kansas City, are enough to get the team to the promised land. If they’re not, it’s hard to see what hope he can continue to sell the fans, because there isn’t a lot of upper level talent coming behind the roster now in place.

This move solidifies the Royals as a win-now franchise. However, from here, it just doesn’t look like they have a good enough team to actually win now. If the 2013 Royals follow the 2008 Mariners path to self destruction, this might be the last roster Dayton Moore ever gets to build.

If you’re wondering about this trade from the Rays perspective, they’re now a little worse than they were before this trade, but their winter isn’t over. They’ll replace Shields and Davis with worse pitchers, but they’re also freeing up roughly $10 million in salary, so if they reallocate that money to buy a +2 win player elsewhere — they still have a glaring hole at DH — then they very well might end up about as good overall as they would have been had they kept Shields. And, of course, they now control Myers rights for the next six years, and they have Odorizzi to maintain their pitching depth, and they got a couple of potential long term assets in Montgomery and Leonard for their trouble. This is just another terrific move by the Rays, pushing their present talent marginally down in order to provide a huge long term boost and keep the team flush with premium young talent.

Even though their team got worse in the present, Rays fans have to be thrilled with this trade. And even though their club got better in the present, Royals fans should be in mourning, because even after this exchange, the Rays are still the team with a better chance of contending in 2013, and now they’ve cemented a brighter future for themselves as well.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[wildkycat]

Shin-soo Choo for Stubbs and Didi?

Do it.

 

[venom lyrix]

Reds are going to be giving up one more big name in the deal for Choo

 

[wildkycat]

Drew Stubbs has gotten worse every year. Dude is a bum. I don't care what it takes to get this guy off my team.

 

[jdcurt2]

I like DiDi A LOT, but I would do this trade in a heart beat and. Put Choo in right and move Bruce to center. Reports are that we would receive another player too.

 

[wildkycat]

and Billy Hamilton is on deck.

 

[proshares]

Read that they might throw a one year deal at Bourn to see if he bites. Anything to keep Bruce out of center I suppose.

Going around that Didi may be the name going to AZ for Bauer or Skaggs and not Cabrera.

 

[champcruthik]

Greinke's anxiety issues are extremely real and concerning if you're a MLB organization pondering a long-term contract. He can't pitch in major markets like New York, Boston, or Chicago. One bad start and the implosion would ensue worse than a Mike Matusow blow-up. I suppose in "laid-back" Los Angeles as a #2 behind Kershaw, the pressure is reduced mightily.

My close baseball friends have long argued that Greinke is underrated as a MLB pitcher, but this contract says otherwise even in an inflated market. Does Zack live up to the six-year deal? Probably not.

I'm fully supporting Ryu to LA and the large Korean market, but he's not the same pitcher as Darvish by any stretch of the imagination. Starting as a #4 or #5 in the rotation could be best to build confidence and comfort in the majors.

I love the Shields trade for Tampa, Hellickson could be out the door next. Keeping Longoria and Price is a success to me in that market, while still remaining competitive in the most difficult division in baseball with one of the most competent managers in the MLB. Wil's a stud and Odorizzi can project as a back-end starter (#4 or #5). I don't live giving up Davis because I feel he has tremendous value as a back-end starter or long-innings bullpen option, but Shields can be shelled and has a tendency for giving up lots of homers for an ace. KC may be disappointed in their return long-term.

 

[stillin729]

Grienke's issues are no doubt concerning, the dude basically melted down in KC, I wouldn't want him in a Phillies uniform over Hamels or Cain especially with his anxiety. I mean anyone who goes on the 60 DL with "psychological issues" and comes close to quitting baseball.

I'm hoping the Phillies sign Edwin Jackson for their 4th or 5th starter

I still feel like they will do something big before its all said and done for a household name whether that be Hamilton, Upton, or the Marlins giving us their last good player

 

[ooiron manoo]

He's not as good as them IMO. Especially for six years. It's not just him, it's just the insane amount of money on the payroll for players who aren't that great.
The Royals management needs to be disbanded for this trade.

He was the best pitcher on the market, sometimes what you get paid isn't relative to "worth". In fact "worth" is very subjective depending on who you talk to. Trying to figure out what a player is "worth" is still being figured out.

Plus, Hamels and Cain didn't hit the open market, they probably could've got "CC Sabathia" money.

Your last comment, . Don't think the Royals did bad in the deal and it is being overblown by a lot of people.

Greinke's anxiety issues are extremely real and concerning if you're a MLB organization pondering a long-term contract. He can't pitch in major markets like New York, Boston, or Chicago. One bad start and the implosion would ensue worse than a Mike Matusow blow-up. I suppose in "laid-back" Los Angeles as a #2 behind Kershaw, the pressure is reduced mightily.

Before doling out that much money and "security", research was done. I'm sure the front office is confident he will be able to thrive in this environment behind Clayton Kershaw. Different market, different environment, different type of people.

Angels did a lot of research before sending two top prospects to Milwuakee.

 

[champcruthik]

Bro, Edwin Jackson gets no respect. He's a solid innings-eater. What more do you want on the back-end.

 

[stillin729]

Bro, Edwin Jackson gets no respect. He's a solid innings-eater. What more do you want on the back-end.

What? I said I wanted him

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

Yanks sign Youkilis for 1 year.


I like it.



Indians/Reds working on a deal involving Choo.

 

[rawex5]

Bro, Edwin Jackson gets no respect. He's a solid innings-eater. What more do you want on the back-end.

What? I said I wanted him

 

[finallyfamous]

Yanks got Youklis

 

[stillin729]

Yanks sign Youkilis for 1 yeat.
I like it.
Indians/Reds working on a deal involving Choo.

Def think its a good sign on a one year deal

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

I think Greinke will perform fine, but LA loves its Dodgers something serious. If he struggles out of the gate I hope he's able to keep it together long enough to correct any issues.

 

[GreenNGold89]

Reds Acquire Shin-Soo Choo

By Zach Links [December 11 at 7:50pm CST]
The deal sending Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds has been completed, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). The Reds will also receive Jason Donald in the trade, Heyman confirms (via Twitter).

The three-team deal that was being worked on had Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald going to the Reds, Didi Gregorius to the Diamondbacks, and Drew Stubbs plus an Arizona pitcher going to the Indians, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Patrick Corbin or Trevor Bauer will likely be the Arizona pitcher going to Cleveland, Rosenthal tweets.