2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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1944 23 STL NL 146 668 568 112 197 51 14 12 94 7 90 28 .347 .440 .549 .990 174 312 7 5 4 *O98 AS,MVP-4
1945 Did not play in major leagues (Military Service)
1946 25 STL NL 156 702 624 124 228 50 20 16 103 7 73 31 .365 .434 .587 1.021 183 366 7 3 2 *37O AS,MVP-1


Placed 4th in MVP voting.......served his country for a year......Only to come back and WIN the MVP...................

Sad day in Cardinal nation today..............#1 in all Major batting statistics in Cardinals history..........


I met him while at a small restaraunt in Kirkwood, MO about 15-20 years ago (im 29 fellas, lol) My mothers friend owned this restaraunt and when my mother recognized who he was, she told me to ask for his autograph........I didnt have anything to sign, but the owner happened to have a baseball. I got the ball signed.......But unfortunately, the ball was taken by my ex wife`s niece and ruined....now i dont know where that ball is....................:frown:


[COLOR=#RED]R.I.P. to Stan "The Man" Musial Currently, the only TRUE Cardinal LIFER[/COLOR]​
 
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Stanisław Franciszek Musiał greatest Polish American baseball ever. RIP 
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 but man what a life 
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How did Hunter Pence get $13 mil and Posey only got $8.............When did Pence start playing $10+ per season baseball?
 
About time :lol:. Cincy has been hoping for this the past 8 years or so
 
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Top 10 outfields in MLB history.
It's possible that by the end of the summer, the Angels' outfield of Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Peter Bourjos will be viewed as the best in baseball. Could it rank among the best ever? The standard is pretty high.



On Sunday I ranked the best starting rotations of all time; yesterday, I hit the bullpens. Today, we're moving again.



Here are the top 10 outfields in baseball history:






1. 1961 New York Yankees: Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra


The feats of Maris and Mantle that summer are movie-worthy -- if you haven't seen 61* , find it, because it's great and it's honest -- and record-setting. Maris and Mantle combined for 115 home runs, 220 walks and 263 runs; Mantle had an OPS+ of 206 and an OPS of 1.135, while Maris generated a 167, .993. So really, you could've had Mario Mendoza playing left field and the Yankees' complete outfield probably still would've made this list. As it was, however, the primary left fielder was Yogi Berra, who was nearing the end of a Hall of Fame career and played in 81 games in that spot in '61. In 436 plate appearances, Berra hit .271 with 22 homers, and scored 62 runs.





2. 1995 Cleveland Indians: Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez


Belle was known as Mr. Freeze after destroying a clubhouse thermostat -- among other items. Kenny Lofton just seemed inexplicably angry to some of his teammates. And Manny Ramirez was, well, a young Manny, doing a lot of odd stuff. But the trio put up enormous numbers as part of a 1995 Cleveland team that history must not forget: 299 runs, 100 doubles, 15 triples and 88 homers in a 144-game season that was modified by a labor stoppage. Belle had an OPS+ of 177, clubbing 52 doubles and 50 homers. Ramirez had an OPS+ of 147, and Lofton stole 54 bases. It was a dominant group.






3. 1927 Yankees: Babe Ruth, Earle Combs and Bob Meusel


Any outfield that included Ruth in one of his prime years is going to rank among the best ever, and in 1927, the Bambino hit 60 homers, scored 158 runs and drove in 164 runs and drew 137 walks while striking out only 89 times. His OPS+ that year: 225.



But Combs had an OPS of .925 and scored 137 runs, and Meusel had 64 extra-base hits and drove in 103 runs. The Yankees went 110-44 that year, and the strongest part of that team was arguably that incredible outfield.






4. Detroit Tigers: Ty Cobb and others


Cobb's production was so spectacular -- his lifetime batting average of .366 is the highest in major league history, and the man hit over .300 for 23 consecutive seasons -- that you can pick a number of different years in his time with the Tigers to note on this list, and it just so happened that you can count Hall of Famers among his outfield mates. Sam Crawford was a star when Cobb broke in, and would later be inducted into the Hall in 1957 by the Veterans' Committee, and Harry Heilmann shared the same lineup with Cobb for more than a decade, and had a career average of .342 and was inducted in 1952.



For argument's sake, you could put the 1922 Tigers as perhaps the most rounded of the Cobb years -- he hit .401 that season, while Bobby Veach hit .327 and Heilmann .356. Not bad.






5. 1963 San Francisco Giants: Willie McCovey, Willie Mays and Felipe Alou


Mays was 32 that summer but still in his prime, and he hit 38 homers -- and he had two exceptional wingmen. McCovey, still playing left field at that stage in his career, hit 44 homers and scored 103 runs, and Alou hit .281 with 20 homers. The trio combined for 82 doubles, 21 triples and 102 homers that year. Mays made appearances in All-Star Games in 19 consecutive seasons.






6. 1990 Pittsburgh Pirates: Barry Bonds, Andy Van Slyke and Bobby Bonilla


This trio had it all: power, speed, defense. Bonds and Van Slyke were considered to be two of the best defenders at their respective positions; in 1991, Bonds and Van Slyke both won Gold Gloves. In 1990, the three of them combined for 97 doubles, 283 runs and 82 homers (at a time when a 25-homer season was still regarded as a good season). Bonds had an OPS+ of 170, Bonilla 132 and Van Slyke 132, and as Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information notes, this is the last outfield that had three players that each had 400-plus plate appearances and an OPS+ higher than 130.






7. 1975 Boston Red Sox: Jim Rice, Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans


Manager Darrell Johnson actually used a number of different alignments that year, sometimes starting Carl Yastrzemski in left, with Cecil Cooper at first base. But most of that summer, Rice, Lynn and Evans shared the outfield, thriving together in a year in which Evans was just 23 years old, and the 23-year-old Lynn and 22-year-old Rice were rookies. Lynn won the Rookie of the Year award and the MVP, mustering an OPS+ of 162. Rice mashed 22 homers and drove in 102 runs, in an era when middle-of-the-order hitters were measured by RBIs, and Evans had a .353 on-base percentage, to go along with 45 extra-base hits. Lynn won a Gold Glove Award and in time, Evans was regarded as one of the dominant defensive right fielders of his era.






8. 2002 Atlanta Braves: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield


When the Braves looked for an opportunity to shift Chipper Jones off third base, they moved him to left field -- and created one of the more prolific outfield trios in history.



Chipper had a .435 on-base percentage and 26 homers, with an OPS+ of 151; Andruw Jones hit 35 homers and won a Gold Glove Award at the height of his reign as a dominant defensive center fielder; and Sheffield had an OPS+ of 138.






9. 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates: Willie Stargell, Al Oliver and Richie Zisk


It's all about context: that year, Mike Schmidt led the NL in home runs with 36. So the production of Stargell, Oliver and Zisk was noteworthy: They combined for 105 doubles, 19 triples and 53 homers, and each of them hit over .300. Stargell had an OPS+ of 168, Zisk 145 and Oliver 136.






10. 1994 Montreal Expos: Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom and Larry Walker


The season ended after only 114 games for the Expos because of the players' strike, but what the trio managed to accomplish in those first four months was remarkable. Alou, Grissom and Walker -- all 27 years old that year -- scored 253 runs and had 100 doubles, 52 homers and 58 stolen bases. Walker and Grissom were regarded as excellent defenders -- Walker had won a Gold Glove in 1993, and Grissom won in '94 -- and both Walker and Grissom finished in the top 12 in the MVP voting. The Expos may have been the greatest team that history will never know, having won 74 of those 114 games, but other players of that era will long remember Montreal's outfield of that time.



Others that should be mentioned:



• The 1988 Boston Red Sox: Mike Greenwell, Ellis Burks and Dwight Evans: They are the last American League outfield with a trio that each had 400-plus plate appearances and an OPS+ higher than 130: The 24-year-old Greenwell had an OPS+ of 160, Burks 130 and Evans 132. They had 107 doubles, 61 homers and 845 total bases.



• The 1976 Cincinnati Reds: George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey Sr.: Foster hadn't fully blossomed as a home run hitter yet -- he hit 29 in 1976 -- but all three hit over .300, and Griffey scored 111 runs that season.



• The 1971 Baltimore Orioles: Frank Robinson, Paul Blair and Don Buford


• The 1913 Red Sox trio of Tris Speaker, Duffy Lewis and Harry Hooper



• The 1982 Angels of Brian Downing, Lynn and Reggie Jackson




By the way: Joel Sherman sent along this thought about the 1992 postseason bullpen of the Toronto Blue Jays: "[T]he best bullpen for one time in place ever," he believes. "Tom Henke, Duane Ward and Mike Timlin (all of whom saved at least 120 games); Mark Eichhorn, who was a long-running strong set-up man; Todd Stottlemyre and David Wells (two high-level, long-term starters). Jimmy Key even pitched a game in relief in those playoffs, winning the clincher in extra innings."



Again, look at the pitching roster of this team -- arguably the greatest collection of pitching talent ever, due to the tremendous work of GM Pat Gillick and his staff.



Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Mets are signing Pedro Feliciano.

2. The Pirates have all but finished the Francisco Liriano deal.

3. The Nationals hope to avoid arbitration.

4. The Astros signed Erik Bedard.

5. Ryan Raburn agreed to terms with the Indians.

6. Carlos Beltran wants a future with the Cardinals, as Derrick Goold writes.

7. David Murphy may work out a multiyear deal, writes T.R. Sullivan.
 
Top 10 bullpens in MLB history.
For most of the first five decades of Major League Baseball, managers preferred to rely on their starting pitchers through the late innings. It wasn't until the '40s and '50s that managers began to regularly use pitchers like Joe Page, Hoyt Wilhelm, Lindy McDaniel and Elroy Face as late-inning specialists, in roles that have become more refined -- closers, and then right-handed and left-handed specialists, and then setup men, and then sixth- and seventh-inning guys, and sinkerballers who can get ground balls and hard throwers who can get a strikeout with a runner at third. Last year, the Orioles utilized almost their entire staff in relief roles at one time or another: Just 67 of Baltimore's 162 games were started by pitchers used exclusively in the rotation.


Something to keep in mind: Deep, balanced bullpens are still a more recent part of the game framed against history, so the best are simply more recent. That noted, we present the top 10 bullpens of all time:






1. 1998 New York Yankees
Baseball history reached a crossroads in 1995, the year the Yankees shifted Mariano Rivera from a starting role into relief -- and to this day, Buck Showalter will joke self-deprecatingly about how different the '95 playoffs might've been if he'd known exactly what he had in Rivera. In 1996, Rivera was an overpowering setup man for John Wetteland, striking out 130 batters in 107 2/3 innings in 1996. Wetteland moved on, Rivera moved into the role of closer and discovered the cut fastball while playing catch with Ramiro Mendoza in 1997, and the Yankees' bullpen was the definition of dominant from 1998-2000. Jeff Nelson and Mendoza were weapons from the right side, Mike Stanton and Graeme Lloyd were left-handed weapons for Torre, and at game's end, Rivera was almost automatic. During the Yankees' 125-win season of 1998, the bullpen went 28-9, with a league-best ERA of 3.76 -- remember, this was right in the middle of the steroid era -- and a league-best WHIP of 1.29. Rivera did not allow a run in 12 1/3 innings of work in the 1998 postseason, while surrendering just six hits. In fact, in 1998 and 1999, Rivera made 18 playoff and World Series appearances without allowing a run.



As I've written here before, Rivera is arguably the greatest postseason performer in baseball history, in spite of the blips in 1997, 2001 and 2004: His career postseason ERA is 0.70, with just two homers and 21 walks allowed in 141 innings.






2. 1990 Cincinnati Reds: The Nasty Boys


Really, we're talking about three guys here: Randy Myers, Rob Dibble and Norm Charlton. They were all relatively young -- Myers and Charlton were 27 years old, Dibble 26 -- and Lou Piniella went to them constantly to end games after the sixth inning. Charlton was moved into the Cincinnati rotation midway through the season, before switching back for the postseason, and that year, he threw 154 1/3 innings in 56 games, striking out 117. Dibble threw 98 innings in 68 appearances, striking out 136, and Myers had a 2.08 ERA in 66 appearances, accumulating 31 saves. But their reputation was fully made in the postseason, when the trio allowed one earned run in the National League Championship Series (against the Pirates), before shutting out Oakland for 8 2/3 innings in the postseason -- so all told, the Nasty Boys allowed one earned run in 24 innings in October.






3. 2003 Houston Astros


The Astros had power and stuff from the right side, with Brad Lidge and Octavio Dotel, and even more power from the left side, with Billy Wagner.



"I was rarely concerned with batter/pitcher match-ups or pitch selection," former Astros catcher Brad Ausmus wrote in an e-mail. "Their pitches were so dominant, it was hard to put down the wrong fingers.



"And, talk about shortening a game. If we could get into the sixth with a lead, we felt really good about our chances. In Wags, Lidge and OD, we probably had three of the 10 best relievers in the league."



As the Yankees learned firsthand on June 11. That day, Roy Oswalt worked a hitless first inning but had to come out of the game in the second because of a groin strain. The Houston bullpen combined for eight more no-hit innings -- over the final four innings, Lidge, Dotel and Wagner combined for eight strikeouts and then they all posed for pictures afterward. That year, the Houston relievers combined for an MLB-high 495 strikeouts, and held opposing hitters to a .225 batting average.






4. 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers


Katie Sharp, a researcher for ESPN Stats & Info, determined that the only bullpen in the last 20 years to rank among the top 20 all-time in ERA was Los Angeles of 2003, at 2.46. Tom Martin was the lone lefty among the primary relievers, but that really didn't matter, not with Paul Quantrill working as a setup man, alongside Guillermo Mota, who struck out 99 batters in 105 innings that year. For sheer dominance, however, closer Eric Gagne was among the best ever -- he allowed 37 hits in 82 1/3 innings, with 20 walks and 137 strikeouts. Right-handed hitters posted an OPS of .358 against Gagne, while lefties were at .390.

Years later, Gagne was among those named in the Mitchell report, complicating his legacy. But none of that mattered in 2003, when he was the most dominant reliever in the sport.






5. 1990 Oakland Athletics


Tony La Russa wasn't the first manager to use his relievers in matchup situations, but he perfected the practice, as arguably the greatest manager of bullpens in history. Dennis Eckersley might be the greatest creation of La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan. At age 31, he had slogged to an ERA of 4.57 for the Chicago Cubs. He signed with Oakland, and La Russa and Duncan turned him into a reliever -- and a Hall of Famer. Eckersley was at his best in 1990, when he struck out 73 and walked four, for an 0.61 ERA. His adjusted ERA-plus for that season was 603, which was the best in history for 22 seasons … until Fernando Rodney's exceptional 2012.


From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Info, the highest adjust ERA-plus for all pitchers with at least 60 innings in a season:



Pitcher Team ERA+ ERA
Fernando Rodney 2012 Rays 634 0.60
Dennis Eckersley 1990 Athletics 603 0.61
Rob Murphy 1986 Reds 541 0.72
Jonathan Papelbon 2006 Red Sox 517 0.92
Dennys Reyes 2006 Twins 507 0.89
Chris Hammond 2002 Braves 441 0.95
Bill Henry 1964 Reds 420 0.87
Jose Mesa 1995 Indians 418 1.12
Craig Kimbrel 2012 Braves 399 1.01
David Robertson 2011 Yankees 399 1.08


With Eckersley leading the way, the Oakland bullpen had a 2.35 ERA, one of the best marks of all time.






6. 1972 Oakland Athletics


**** Williams was among the first managers to consistently call on relievers for matching up lefties on lefties, right-handers versus right-handers, and he had some good pieces to work with that year: Darold Knowles, a left-hander who posted a 1.37 ERA in 54 games that year, and Bob Locker, who had a 2.65 ERA. But most importantly, at the end of games, he had Rollie Fingers, who threw 111 1/3 innings in relief that season, in 65 games, and struck out 113, on his way to 11 wins and 21 saves.






7. 2002 Anaheim Angels


The Angels had a really good bullpen throughout the regular season that year, with Troy Percival overpowering hitters (68 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings), a young Scot Shields denting the big leagues (he had a 2.20 ERA in 29 games) and Brendan Donnelly limiting opponents to 32 hits in 49 2/3 innings. For the season, the Angels had a 2.98 ERA, one of the lowest marks in the last 20 years.



But the whole group was transformed at season's end, when the 20-year-old Francisco Rodriguez was promoted from the minors. He made just five appearances during the regular season, but showed so much that Mike Scioscia used him as his primary setup man in October, and K-Rod -- as he would forever be known -- struck out 28 in 18 2/3 innings, and the Angels won the World Series.






8. 2010 San Francisco Giants


After an excellent regular season, the Giants' relievers took over the postseason. Brian Wilson didn't allowed a run in the playoffs or World Series, striking out 16 in 11 2/3 innings, and Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt had big moments throughout the playoff run. Manager Bruce Bochy had a lot of weapons to use that year and he manipulated them exceptionally, as the Giants won their first World Series title in 56 years.






9. 2012 Tampa Bay Rays


Three bullpens did incredible work last summer and might deserve a spot in this top 10 -- the Reds had the lowest ERA, at 2.65, and the Braves ranked second in the NL at 2.76, riding the extraordinary performance of Craig Kimbrel. But Fernando Rodney had arguably the greatest season ever for any reliever -- see the chart above -- and the Rays led the AL in ERA, at 2.88. Left-hander Jake McGee allowed only 11 walks in 55 1/3 innings, while striking out 73, and also Wade Davis and Joel Peralta pitched well. Tampa Bay's bullpen was so deep that by the end of the year, Kyle Farnsworth -- who was really good in 2011 -- couldn't reclaim a meaningful role after recovering from a right elbow strain.






10. 2002 Atlanta Braves


For years, the Braves had been taken down by thin and inconsistent bullpens. But with John Smoltz in the role of closer, where he racked up 55 saves, this group posted the second-lowest ERA in the last 20 years, at 2.60. Chris Hammond and Mike Remlinger were outstanding from the left side, Darren Holmes and Kerry Ligtenberg had really good seasons from the right side. It was a solid, balanced group.

Near-misses: The 2012 Cincinnati Reds, with their MLB-best 2.65 ERA; the 1992 Blue Jays, who had Tom Henke and Duane Ward and a whole bunch of pitching talent around them (check out all parts of their pitching roster from that year); the 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates; the 1981 Yankees, with Goose Gossage and Ron Davis; the 2011 Braves, before the late-season collapse; and the 1982 St. Louis Cardinals, who had Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter closing games for them.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The White Sox signed Matt Lindstrom.

2. Davey Johnson like having an A bullpen and a B bullpen, as James Wagner writes.

3. The Rockies signed a couple of veteran pitchers.

4. Matthew Hall writes about the ongoing TV impasse for the Padres.

5. This guy will be trying to win a job as a super utility player.
 
Top 10 rotations in MLB history.
I grew up as a crazy Los Angeles Lakers fan right in the middle of Boston Celtics country in central Vermont, which meant that all of my friends rooted for Larry Bird and Robert Parish and Cedric Maxwell, and I rooted for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson. I loved the debate, even when it was certain that we would disagree.



It is in that vein that we present a weeklong series ranking the greatest units in baseball history -- the greatest rotations, the greatest bullpens, outfields, infields, lineups and teams.



It's a sure thing: We are going to disagree. And that's a big part of the fun.



Here's my list of the top 10 MLB rotations of all time:






1. 1997 Atlanta Braves


The Atlanta rotation was so good for so long that you could actually make a case for about a half-dozen other seasons -- 1995, the year that the Braves won the World Series, or 1998, 1999, 1993 or maybe 2002. I solicited opinions on this from a bunch of colleagues, from Jayson Stark to Justin Havens to Frank Labombarda of the Elias Sports Bureau, and Jayson sent along a list of the teams with the greatest differential between their staff ERA and the league average. Five of the top 30 teams were those Braves teams of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.

In 1997, the difference between the Braves' staff ERA of 3.18 was more than a run better than the league average -- 1.03 runs, to be exact -- which is the fourth-best of all time. That year, John Smoltz had 241 strikeouts in 256 innings, with a 3.02 ERA, and he was arguably the fourth-most effective starter in their rotation. Denny Neagle went 20-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.084 WHIP, and finished third in the Cy Young voting; Glavine had a 2.96 ERA; and Maddux finished second to Pedro Martinez in the Cy Young voting after posting a 2.20 ERA.



And within the next five years, we'll probably be able to say that three-fifths of the Atlanta rotation was composed of Hall of Famers, which means even more today than it did two weeks ago.






2. 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers


This rotation included three pitchers who would eventually be inducted in the Hall of Fame. Sandy Koufax, in his last season before retiring, posted a career-low 1.73 ERA with 317 strikeouts in 323 innings. Don Drysdale had the highest ERA among the starters at 3.42, and the guy filling the No. 4 spot in the four-man rotation was 21-year-old Don Sutton, who went 12-12 with a 2.99 ERA. Claude Osteen, the Dodgers' No. 3 starter, surrendered just six homers and 65 walks in 240 1/3 innings, the foundation for his 2.85 ERA. The difference between the Dodgers' staff ERA that season -- built on the 1,062 innings of those starters -- and the league average was 0.98 runs, the eighth-best in major league history.






3. 2011 Philadelphia Phillies


On the second day of spring training that year, the Phillies' rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton held a news conference together, and the whole thing was a little awkward. Halladay and Lee are naturally reticent, and none of the other three was inclined to speak out of turn. When Blanton was asked, in so many words, whether he felt he was worthy of being in the same company as the other four, Oswalt reacted with a look of disgust at the question.

Greatest rotation ERAs since 1987
Year Team ERA
2011 Philadelphia Phillies 2.86
1992 Atlanta Braves 2.95
1988 New York Mets 2.97
1989 Los Angeles Dodgers 3.02
1988 Montreal Expos 3.05
1997 Atlanta Braves 3.05
From Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info
But while they didn't like talking about themselves, they lived up to the hype. The Phillies' rotation posted a 2.86 ERA that season, best in the majors, and Philadelphia went 102-60. Halladay, Lee and Hamels all posted ERAs at 2.79 or lower, and at one time or another, each of them was part of the Cy Young conversation during that summer. Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history.



Halladay could retire today and be all but assured of induction into the Hall of Fame, and Hamels has started his career strongly and given himself a chance to someday join Halladay. Either way, Hamels and the rest of the 2011 Phillies can say they were part of one of the greatest rotations of all time.






4. 1954 Cleveland Indians


The Indians went 111-43 that year, setting the modern-day American League record for wins -- later broken by the 1998 New York Yankees and then the 2001 Seattle Mariners -- and their rotation led the way. Early Wynn and Bob Lemon each won 23 games, Mike Garcia went 19-8, and No. 4 starter Art Houtteman went 15-7 with a 3.35 ERA. The No. 4 starter? The 35-year-old Bob Feller, who mustered a 3.09 ERA in his 19 starts. Wynn, Lemon and Feller all were eventually inducted into the Hall of Fame -- as was a veteran reliever on that team who chipped in with one spot start, the 33-year-old Hal Newhouser. Cleveland posted a staff ERA that year of 2.78, markedly better than any other team's; the Chicago White Sox finished second at 3.05.






5. 1907 Chicago Cubs


It was the dead ball era, and pitching dominated, but no staff might have dominated the way that this Cubs team did. The Cubs' ERA was 1.73, with five of the eight members of the team checking in with ERAs under two runs per game: Orval Overall went 23-7 with a 1.68 ERA; the legendary Mordecai Brown had a 1.39 ERA; Ed Reulbach at 1.69; Carl Lundgren, 1.17; and Jack Pfeister, 1.15. In the sweep of the Detroit Tigers, which included a 3-3 tie in Game 1, the Cubs' staff allowed four earned runs in those five games.



Oh, what the Cubs would give to have a pitcher like Overall now.






6. 1986 Houston Astros


That year, a 39-year-old Nolan Ryan struck out 194 in 178 innings with a 3.34 ERA -- and he was the Astros' No. 3 starter. Mike Scott's splitter (or whatever it was) was at its best, and he posted a 2.22 ERA with 306 strikeouts in 275 1/3 innings. Bob Knepper was 17-12, 3.14, and Jim Deshaies was 12-5, 3.25 in 26 starts. That staff generated 1,160 strikeouts, easily the most in the majors, and Houston's rotation ranked No. 1 in ERA in the majors that year at 3.06.



Their season would end with a wrenching playoff defeat to the New York Mets, because the Astros on that team -- and some Mets, for that matter -- will always believe that if Houston could have forced a Game 7, Scott would have gotten the ball and won. He had been dominant in his first two starts, allowing one run and one walk in 18 innings, with 19 strikeouts.






7. 1971 Baltimore Orioles


The Orioles lost the World Series in seven games that year, but this might have been the best pitching staff among the many great staffs managed by the late Earl Weaver. This rotation is famous for being the only rotation in history with four 20-game winners -- left-hander Mike Cuellar (20-9), right-hander Pat Dobson (20-8), right-hander Jim Palmer (20-9) and left-hander Dave McNally (21-5). The Orioles' staff pitched 1,415 1/3 innings that year, and the starting four accounted for 1,081 of those.



It's hard to make a case for this quartet as being the greatest rotation of all time, though, given the fact that Baltimore's staff ERA was just a shade better than those of the Oakland Athletics, the California Angels and the White Sox. But the Orioles' staff was extremely efficient: Baltimore finished ninth in the league in strikeouts that season but allowed the fewest walks -- and in keeping with Weaver's directive about avoiding beanball battles, the Baltimore batters hit only 18 opponents that year, the fewest in the majors. The Orioles had a great defense, and Weaver implored his pitchers to take advantage of it -- and in 1971 they did, day after day.






8. 1948 Cleveland Indians


Cleveland's staff ERA was more than a half-run better than any other AL team's, and the Indians' primary five starters of Bob Lemon, Bob Feller, Gene Bearden, Sam Zoldak and Don Black did a lot of heavy lifting in that season -- manager Lou Boudreau used each of them for at least six relief appearances as well. Lemon had a couple of saves and Feller had three among the Indians' league-leading 30 saves. The Indians' ERA of 3.22 was 1.06 runs better than the league average, the third-highest of all time.



The difference in eras may be best borne out by this number: Cleveland's accomplished staff combined for 593 strikeouts in 1,409 1/3 innings, or 3.79 per nine innings. According to Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Info, the last team to post a strikeout/9 ratio this low was the 1983 Kansas City Royals.






9. 1939 New York Yankees


It's a group of pitchers mostly forgotten by history because of the dominance of the Yankees' lineup that year, but consider this: The staff ERA of 3.31, or 1.31 runs better than the league average of 4.62, represents the greatest difference in baseball history. The Yankees' ERA was almost three-quarters of a run better than any other AL team's, in a year in which New York went 106-45. Manager Joe McCarthy employed his own version of a pitch count that year: Eight different pitchers had at least 11 starts, and not one of them started more than 28 games. Nonetheless, Red Ruffing went 21-7 with a 2.93 ERA, and Lefty Gomez went 12-8 with a 3.41 ERA, in 26 starts. Three of the top four leaders in hits per nine innings were members of the Yankees' rotation.



That season will always be remembered for the last days of Lou Gehrig's consecutive-games streak and for Joe DiMaggio's pre-eminence. But the Yankees' pitching was sensational.






10. 1905 Philadelphia Athletics


It was a different time, and really, a different game. Connie Mack used a total of seven pitchers that year, and his big four of left-handers Eddie Plank and Rube Waddell and right-handers Chief Bender and Andy Coakley combined for 1,169 of the team's 1,383 innings that season. Waddell had a monster season, posting a 1.48 ERA and striking out 287 hitters in 328 2/3 innings -- and he went 27-10.



Others considered: The 1968 St. Louis Cardinals -- It was very, very difficult to leave them out. With Bob Gibson leading the way with a record-low 1.12 ERA, St. Louis had an ERA of 2.49 that year, and he was followed in the rotation by Nelson Briles and Steve Carlton.



The 1926 Philadelphia Athletics -- At a time when offense had started to take over the sport, Connie Mack's staff posted a league-best 3.00 ERA. Philadelphia finished third that year even though that the staff ERA was 1.02 runs per game better than the league average, the fifth-best of all time. Hall of Famer Lefty Grove led the way for that rotation.



The Oakland Athletics' rotations from 1972 to 1974 -- Catfish Hunter, Ken Holtzman and Vida Blue were the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz of those years.



The 1986 New York Mets -- Before they outlasted the Astros and Red Sox in the postseason, the Mets were a regular-season machine, going 108-54 -- and their rotation did staggering work. Sid Fernandez, their No. 4 starter, allowed just 161 hits in 204 1/3 innings, and their No. 5 was a 24-year-old Rick Aguilera. Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Bobby Ojeda fronted the rotation, with Gooden posting a 2.84 ERA.



The 1998 Yankees -- Led the AL in ERA by a significant margin as the Yankees won 114 regular-season games.



The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks -- Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson combined for 665 strikeouts in 506 1/3 innings that year and carried that rotation.



The 2003 Oakland Athletics -- Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito were in their prime.




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New York baseball writers' dinner report


Old friend Willie Weinbaum attended the New York baseball writers' dinner Saturday, and as he does every year, he checked in with this file -- after a day filled with sad news.

As Saturday's 90th annual Baseball Writers' Association New York chapter awards dinner began, chairman Tyler Kepner of The New York Times announced the names of baseball figures whose lives had ended in the past year, concluding with Hall of Famer Earl Weaver, who died the night before at age 82.

Then word started to get around that another Cooperstown immortal, Stan "The Man" Musial, died Saturday at 92. "It is a very sad day for me," Willie Mays said in a brief interview after being informed of his perennial National League All-Star Game teammate's passing. Mays, on hand to celebrate the 2012 Giants' world championship honorees and the chapter's "Willie, Mickey and the Duke" award to his 1973 Mets, called Musial "a true gentleman who understood the race thing and did all he could.

"I never heard anybody say a bad word about him, ever."

Rather than cast a pall, the news seemed to infuse the event with a renewed spirit of reflection and reveling in the people present -- like the 81-year-old "Say Hey Kid."

The Nationals' Davey Johnson accepted the NL Manager of the Year award and immediately lightened the mood by thanking both presenter Terry Collins, the Mets' manager, for trading R.A. Dickey out of the league, and fellow honoree Chipper Jones for retiring. Johnson also reminisced about Weaver, his indomitable manager with the Orioles, whose confidence even back in his days as a shortstop was over the top for someone "only 5-foot-3 who couldn't run and couldn't throw."

Jones, recipient of the William J. Slocum-Jack Lang Award for meritorious service, was a legendary Mets killer, and his prolific numbers against them made up most of his introduction. Jones said he'd gotten the itch to go to spring training this year and looked at the Braves' website, but worked out for five minutes and decided "it's better to go to Hawaii."

Giants catcher Buster Posey, a Georgia native, received his NL Most Valuable Player award from Jones and then chided him -- as did others -- about being long in the tooth. Posey recounted starting to watch Jones his rookie year, "when I was 6 or 7 -- I don't want to make you feel old & my dad's 10 years older than you."

Earlier in the day, American League MVP Miguel Cabrera, MLB's first Triple Crown winner since 1967, and Rookie of the Year Mike Trout got together for an ESPN The Magazine cover photo shoot. Trout said he'd rented a tuxedo for the BBWAA banquet but has plans to buy one. Judging by Cabrera's predictions of MVP and other awards for Trout, investing in a tux seems practical for the young Angel.

Instead of a traditional comedian, often the entertainment at these shindigs, the showcase act was Gar Ryness, better known as the "batting stance guy." And Ryness' act didn't disappoint, as he mimicked Cabrera's home run trot, Posey's quizzical expressions on questionable calls and the idiosyncrasies of CC Sabathia, Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter. He also joined the jabbers at the recently retired Jones, saying that when Hank Aaron hit his 715th homer 39 years ago, Dusty Baker was on deck, Davey Johnson in the hole and Jones next.

Dinner emcee Kepner is a Vanderbilt alumnus, and he expressed special pleasure in the AL Cy Young Award going to former Commodore David Price, who proclaimed his love of the game from the time he first played it as a 2-year old.

Ever-topical Mets general manager Sandy Alderson played the Manti Te'o card in making light of his team's no-name outfield, telling the audience he has had "serious discussions with several outfielders I met on the Internet; one I really like says he played at Stanford."

Alderson wished his former pitcher R.A. Dickey well, saying he hopes the knuckleballer, now with Toronto, becomes the first to win back to back Cy Young Awards in two different leagues, in two different countries.

The 38-year-old Dickey received the NL Cy from a mentor, Hall of Fame knuckleballer Phil Niekro, who said Dickey's career is "only beginning." How meaningful to Niekro was the chance to present the award to Dickey? Niekro said he told his wife that if their wedding had been scheduled for Saturday, he probably would've rescheduled it.

Jim Abbott, winner of the Casey Stengel "You Could Look it Up" Award commemorating his no-hitter for the Yankees 20 years ago, recalled firing the game's first pitch to the backstop and then walking leadoff hitter Kenny Lofton on five pitches. But as the momentous performance progressed, Abbott, who was born without a right hand, said he thrived with the rousing support of the fans, who vented at Lofton "like you would not believe" in the ninth inning when he unsuccessfully tried for a bunt single.

Abbott paid tribute to the respected baseball officials Jeff Idelson, president of the Hall of Fame and former public relations director of the Yankees, and Tim Mead, a longtime Angels executive, for their teachings about how to treat people. And he cited his career and the BBWAA award as examples of what his father taught him, that "what's taken away once will be given back twice."

Courage in the face of adversity is the common denominator cited for the co-winners of the Arthur and Milton Richman "You Gotta Have Heart" award. MLB Players Association executive director Michael Weiner, despite being diagnosed with brain cancer last summer and dealing with a taxing treatment regimen, has helped the sport forge historic, new approaches to performance-enhancing drugs. Weiner stated his commitment to live his life and do his job as always and described the outpouring of support for him, his wife and their three daughters as "off the charts."

The youngest person on the dais, perhaps ever, was 10-year-old Lindsey Duquette, daughter of former Mets and Orioles general manager Jim Duquette. For eight years and through 22 surgeries, Lindsey says her rare kidney disease, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, controlled her family. But thanks to Jim's kidney donation last summer, Lindsey says she is doing well and can be of help to others. Her speech followed her dad's, and she projected impressive calmness for a speaker of any age. To Weiner, her father's fellow alumnus of Williams College, Lindsey said, "if you ever need any advice when you're in the hospital, I'm available."

News and notes


Here is a clip of the final at-bat of Stan Musial, the creator of baseball's most perfect statistic: 1,815 hits at home, 1,815 hits on the road.




Tim Kurkjian offers his memories of Musial and of Weaver.



**** Goldstein, who writes some of the best obituaries anywhere, does justice to Musial's legacy here. As you can imagine, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has extraordinary coverage of the passing of that city's greatest sports icon.



There was a record crowd at the Orioles' fan fest, where Weaver was honored.



Jayson Stark writes about Weaver's secret weapon.



Thomas Boswell writes about Earl Weaver, the master. Old friend Dave Ginsburg writes about a man beloved in Baltimore.



Corey Hart will need knee surgery and will miss the start of the season. This is not a minor procedure; if it were a simple cleanup, he'd be ready for the start of the season.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. There are interested teams champing at the bit to get involved in the Justin Upton conversations with Arizona, which focused earlier this month on talking with two teams that are on Upton's no-trade list -- the Mariners and the Cubs.



2. Adam Wainwright isn't setting any deadlines in his talks with the Cardinals, writes Derrick Goold.



3. Garrett Jones worked out a one-year deal.



4. Lynn Henning has some questions for Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski.



5. The Cubs are willing to spend $300 million for renovations.



6. Delmon Young and Luke Scott are among the Rays' DH options.



7. The Padres and Chase Headley are far apart in their arbitration filings, writes Bill Center.
 
Five outfielders most likely to be traded.
With Wednesday's trade of Michael Morse from the Washington Nationals to the Seattle Mariners, one of the most likely traded outfielders came off the market. Along with Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez, Morse will stabilize the Mariners’ moribund lineup and offer some veteran insulation to youngsters Dustin Ackley, Kyle Seager, Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.

However, there remain other outfielders who could be dealt, whether because of a surplus created by new acquisitions or because they simply don’t fit into their team’s long-term vision. For some teams, it will take swallowing salary, but regardless, any of these five outfielders could be wearing a different uniform by Opening Day.

Justin Upton | RF | Arizona Diamondbacks

Despite the near MVP numbers he put up in 2011 and his enormous potential, the 25-year-old Upton has been seemingly dragged through the mud by the Diamondbacks. General manager Kevin Towers has put Upton on the market three times since he joined Arizona in 2010, with the latest line thrown catching the attention of the Mariners. Upton ultimately used his limited no-trade clause to nix the trade, which could have netted top pitching prospect Taijuan Walker.

But Towers knew the Mariners were on Upton’s no-trade list, so to go through full negotiations with the Mariners knowing Upton would veto the trade is perplexing. The D-backs’ handling of Upton is surprising if not disappointing.

The team has alienated Upton so much that it’s highly unlikely he’ll perform up to his potential in Arizona. But the Mariners non-trade set the bar for what Towers is looking for in return, and just two teams can meet that standard -- the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers -- but they have balked at that asking price.

Towers’ leverage is limited, and the best he can expect is a Texas package of Mike Olt, Martin Perez and Cody Buckel. It seems highly unlikely Arizona will go into the season with Cody Ross, Upton and Jason Kubel in the outfield, with Adam Eaton earning a starting spot in center field.

Best fits: Rangers, Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies

Alfonso Soriano | LF | Chicago Cubs

As the saying goes, “woulda, coulda, shoulda.” Soriano has probably said that a million times this offseason after torpedoing a trade to the San Francisco Giants in July. The Giants went on to win the World Series; Soriano’s Cubs went on to 101 losses.

Soriano might have changed his tune since then. He has told friends that he would be amenable to a trade to a contender, and Philadelphia could use his bat. Soriano’s giant contract remains the stumbling block, with two years left at $18 million each. Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have made it known it would be no problem to absorb that salary for decent prospects in return.

A massive contract has overshadowed the fact that Soriano has been a productive hitter over the course of his deal. He’s averaged 27 home runs a year, and in 2012, Soriano even established a career high in RBIs with 108. In Philadelphia’s cozy Citizens Bank Park, Soriano could hit 30 homers in the Phillies’ No. 5 or 6 hole. Despite the bad knees, Soriano keeps himself in top physical condition. In Philadelphia, his defensive liabilities and limited range could be eased with speedy Ben Revere in center field.

Best fits: Phillies, Baltimore Orioles

Vernon Wells | LF | Los Angeles Angels

Wells finds himself in a situation similar to what Bobby Abreu found himself in last April -- a man without a position and, really, a roster spot.

With Josh Hamilton, Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout in the outfield and Mark Trumbo as a DH and backup in the corner outfield spots, Wells has nowhere to go on the Angels’ roster. With $42 million due to him, Wells is almost as unmovable as Soriano. The Angels will have to eat Wells’ remaining salary to even interest someone.

For Wells’ sake as well as the Angels, he needs to come to camp in outstanding shape and have a good spring camp if he wants to continue his career and prove he has something left in the tank. The New York Yankees and Phillies could be interested, as both are in need of some right-handed power. Regardless, the most Wells can hope for is a limited role off the bench.

Best fits: Yankees, Phillies, Cleveland Indians

Coco Crisp or Chris Young | CF | Oakland Athletics

A’s manager Bob Melvin told me that Crisp is his starting center fielder. After all, Crisp is an outstanding defender. But Young is nearly on par with Crisp and offers more power? So what’s the debate?

Melvin said he will rotate Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Young and Crisp through the DH role. But it’s painfully obvious that Cespedes is the emerging star in Oakland, so he needs to play every day. Likewise, after Reddick’s breakout season in which he hit 32 home runs and drove in 85, Reddick needs to play every day too.

The A’s gave up Cliff Pennington and Yordy Cabrera to get Young this offseason, so it’s highly unlikely that they would relegate Young to a platoon situation in which both he and Crisp would not be happy. Still, if Melvin is committed to Crisp, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Young is traded to the first team that suffers a bad injury to its starting center fielder. Crisp has said he wouldn’t be opposed to a trade to a contender. It's possible Young or Crisp will be moved before Opening Day.
 
I'll post the rest of the articles later, for some reason IE is not letting me get these spoilers together in one post.
 
FIRST B0RN said:
Stan was one of those players who made me proud to be a Cardinals fan, he was a class act and the Greatest player to ever wear a Cardinals uniform. R.I.P "Stan The Man".
Click to expand...

Old school like the old school...They don't make 'em like that anymore...
 
Here's a great read for any hardcore baseball fans about Earl Weaver...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/11-things-i-didnt-know-about-earl-weaver/

11 things I didn’t know about Earl Weaver


11 things I didn’t know about Earl Weaver
by Chris Jaffe
January 21, 2013

Saturday was a rough day for baseball, with two Hall of Famers passing—longtime Orioles manager Earl Weaver and legendary Cardinals star Stan Musial.

Both deserve some attention, and both are important enough to deserve their own space. Thus, I’ll spend this time here on Earl Weaver. It’s up my alley, as a few years ago I wrote an award-winning book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers, so I have some reason to focus on Weaver. I’ll try not to borrow too much from my book while looking at Weaver’s career.

1. He was part of a wave of new managerial blood from 1967-70

There weren’t many prominent managers in the early-mid 1960s. You had Al Lopez in Chicago and Walter Alston in Los Angeles, but not too many others. Oh, sure, Casey Stengel was plying his trade with the Mets, but he was past his prime with a team that was terrible. Typically, you have four or more Hall of Fame skippers working at once, but that wasn’t the case in the 1960s.

Beyond them you had some other good skippers—Danny Murtaugh, Ralph Houk, Gene Mauch—but they don’t have the same stature as others.

Then a new breed came to the fore. The opening shot was **** Williams, who, in his 1967 rookie skipper season, shepherded the surprising Red Sox to their first pennant in 21 years. Weaver showed up in mid-1968, taking over the Orioles. In 1969, Billy Martin began his stormy skipper career. In 1970, Sparky Anderson began his successful run with the Reds. That’s a mighty impressive foursome to begin, one right after the other. And you had some veteran journeymen skippers begin alongside them in John McNamara and Chuck Tanner.

These men had a lot of success pretty quickly. Williams and Anderson won the pennant as rookies, and Weaver did likewise in his first full season. Martin claimed a division crown for the 1969 Twins. A new generation had made its stamp on the game.

Sadly, we’re now seeing that same group pass on. Martin has been gone for a while; Anderson, Williams, Tanner, and Weaver have all died in the last 26 months.

2. He was a controversial hire in 1968, but that controversy didn’t last long

Weaver is such a famous manager, it’s difficult to imagine him being anything but that, but this wasn’t always the case.

Lenoard Koppett once wrote that when Weaver first came to Baltimore, he was Mr. Nobody. He was just some minor league player turned minor league manager no one had ever heard of. Sure, others with little to no major league playing experience had made their mark previously—Joe McCarthy had a Hall of Fame career already and Walter Alston had won numerous world titles—but a minor league-only guy was still odd. Keep in mind, Weaver replaced Hank Bauer as Orioles skipper. All Bauer did was play on Casey Stengel’s Yankees champions in the 1950s and then guide the 1966 Orioles to their first world title.

But then the O’s stumbled in 1967 and had a rocky start in 1968, and suddenly it’s Mr. Nobody. Fans felt like the lucky person sitting in Seat 27, Row 7, Section 424 had been named manager. But then Weaver took an Orioles team stumbling along with a 43-37 record and had them explode to a 48-34 mark the rest of the way.

Then, in his first full season in 1969, the Orioles won 109 games and a pennant. In 1970, they won 108 games and a world title. In 1971, the team enjoyed a third straight 100-win season and a third straight pennant.

That’s as good a start as any manager in history has ever had. Only three skippers won pennants in their first three seasons—Hughie Jennings with the 1907-09 Tigers, Ralph Houk with the 1961-63 Yankees, and Weaver. Oddly, neither Jennings nor Houk ever won another pennant, but Weaver would. Weaver also tied Houk with 109 wins in his first full season. Admittedly, Weaver began with a half-season in 1968 while the others made their big league dugout debuts in their first World Series season, but Weaver still has a place in this club.

3. Earl Weaver was a younger manager than you might think

Weaver’s death at age 82 came more than a quarter-century since his last day in the dugout. In his final day on the job, he was less than two months past his 56th birthday. You might have guessed he was older than that, right?

Now, 56 doesn’t sound that old. In fact, more than 10 managers on the last day of 2012 were older. Okay, so you might expect the aged veterans like Bobby Valentine, Jim Leyland and Davey Johnson to be older than Weaver when he retired. After all, those guys have been around since the 1980s. In fact, Valentine actually managed against Weaver back in the day. But Ned Yost is 58 years old. Charlie Manuel was older than 56 when he began managing the Phillies. Joe Maddon was just a few years shy of 56 when he began managing Tampa. You know who was almost the exact same age last year as Weaver in his swan song? Ron Roenicke, the Brewers skipper with barely 300 games under his belt.

In part, this tells us how managers now are older than normally has been the case. (And that was really the case a few years ago with Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox, Lou Piniella and—briefly—Jack McKeon working).

Weaver retired at age 56, but **** Williams left the game at age 59, and Billy Martin was 57.

Still, neither of them was 56, and Weaver was damn young when he started, just a month shy of his 37th birthday. That would be like Joe Maddon managing in late 1990.

When Weaver faced Sparky Anderson in the 1970 World Series, it was the youngest Fall Classic managerial match-up since 1935, when Detroit’s Mickey Cochrane and Chicago’s Charlie Grimm became the youngest pair of managers ever to square off in the game’s grandest stage. (As old as Anderson always looked, he was just 36 as a rookie manager in 1970, and Weaver had just passed his 40th birthday.)

4. He was a dynamo in the LCS

In October, Weaver is best remembered for his failings, capturing four pennants but only one world championship. The 1969 Orioles are on the short list of the best teams in history, but they lost in five games to the Miracle Mets.

However, those Fall Classic flops shouldn’t cause us to ignore Weaver’s incredible streak in the ALCS. 1969 wasn’t just Weaver’s first full season, it was also the first year of divisional playoffs. Weaver’s Orioles swept Billy Martin’s Twins, three games to none.

The next year, Weaver’s Orioles again swept the Twins in one of the most lopsided postseason series of all time. The Twins led for exactly one half-inning while getting outscored 27-10.

In 1971, the Orioles swept a third straight ALCS, topping **** Williams A’s. Nine games, nine wins. For good measure, the O’s went back to the ALCS in 1973 and defeated the A’s in Game One. The string of 10 straight LCS wins is the most for any manager.

Around that time, Weaver’s magic wore off. The O’s lost the 1973 ALCS in five hard-fought games. The next year, Baltimore lost in four games to Oakland (even losing one game in which they threw a one-hitter). A 1979 ALCS triumph gave Weaver an overall LCS record of 15-7, which is still one of the best ever. In the best-of-five LCS era, only Sparky Anderson did better, with a 18-9 mark.

5. Weaver and offense: sure it was the big inning, but it wasn’t just that

Weaver is well remembered for many things, including his success and frequent run-ins with umpires, but perhaps what he was best known for was his love of the three-run homer. He said if you played for just one run, that’s all you get. Three-run homers were his thing. Weaver liked hitters with the patience to take a walk so they could score runs, and he liked batters with power enough to drive in those runs.

And sure enough, you can see how this played out. Let’s look at the Orioles from 1969-82, from Weaver’s first full season until his first retirement. Here are the number of walks drawn by the AL teams in those years (ignoring the 1977 expansion franchises):

Team BB
BAL 8,131
BOX 7,563
TEX 7,438
OAK 7,431
NYY 7,356
MIN 7,199
CLE 7,199
DET 7,144
KCR 7,128
CAL 7,122
MIL 7,111
CWS 6,916

Weaver’s Birds are so far ahead that the second-place Red Sox are nearly as close to last as they are to Baltimore. Despite having the sixth-best batting average in those years, Baltimore ranked second in on-base percentage, behind only Boston. If you factor in Fenway’s wild 1970s park factor, the Orioles were the best at getting on base.

The Orioles also hit 1,996 homers, second only to (again) the Red Sox. Baltimore was also third in doubles. Thus, the O's ended up second in slugging percentage once more to the Fenway-aided Red Sox.

That said, while Weaver loved playing for the big inning, his disdain for small ball can be overstated. He was always willing to steal bases; it depended on the talent on hand. Ken Singleton, Mark Belanger, Paul Blair and a young Don Baylor all could run, so run they did. Weaver didn’t go crazy on the bases like ****** Herzog, but those 1969-82 Orioles ranked fourth in stolen bases. However, they had a tremendous success rate, third best in the AL in those years. Weaver was willing to run, but he didn’t want to run into outs.

More surprisingly, for the first half of his career, he was middle-of-the road in laying down sacrifice bunts. Weaver typically averaged around 70 a year, but mid-career he moved away from it. He went from 73 in 1975 to 57 in 1976, 48 in 1977 and 41 in 1978, then stayed around 40 for the rest of his days. Weaver is famous for hating to give up an out just to advance someone, but that was an idea he developed as he went along.

6. Weaver had the best benches

Weaver is famous for getting tremendous production from part-time players in his distinctive platoon arrangements. He had cards on how all his batters matched up against every pitcher, and under Weaver’s guidance, players like John Lowenstein, Gary Roenicke and Merv Rettenmund thrived. But it went deeper than a few players.

A few years ago, I wrote an article for the 2011 THT Annual book that looked at the best benches in baseball history. You take a team’s overall offensive line and subtract from that what the pitchers and starting position players contributed. The leftover is what the bench did. Take that result, figure Runs Created per 27 outs, and adjust for ballpark. That tells you what the best benches were.

By that approach, Weaver is king in finding good bats from his bench. Seven times his squads rated as the best batting bench in the league. From 1900 onward, only two managers can top that: John McGraw (11 times the best bench), and Casey Stengel (nine times). Both managed for a lot longer than Weaver and did it in eight-team leagues. Weaver placed first or second in most of his seasons, something no other prominent manager can claim.

In Weaver’s first six years, he had the best bench five times and the second-best bench the other time. His benches weren’t just good compared to others. Half of the time, they were as good as, or even better than, league-average hitting. Baltimore’s 1971 bench rates as one of the best in history. Led by super-sub Rettenmund’s .422 OBP in over 140 games played, the Baltimore bench averaged over five Runs Created per 27 outs in a league where teams scored under four runs per game.

The same thing that made his offenses work made Weaver’s benches work: they got on base and had power. Six times they had the best OBP of any AL bench and twice finished second. Five times they had the best isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average), and they had three other seasons in second or third place.

7. Weaver had the best defense ever

Fun fact: according to WAR, Earl Weaver managed the best fielding team of all-time. The 1973 Orioles score at 13.5 dWAR, two full wins better than any of the 2,600-plus teams in major league history.

The runnerup, at 11.5 dWAR, is the 1969 Orioles, also managed by Weaver. No non-Weaver team has ever topped 11.0 dWAR in a season.

WAR isn’t the end-all, be-all to determining value, but Weaver sure had some fine defenses. That 1973 squad featured Paul Blair, Bobby Grich, Mark Belanger and Brooks Robinson at its key defensive positions.

Weaver is so well known and influential in his offensive strategies, it’s easy to forget what a premium he placed on defense. Sure, it’s great when you get someone like a young Bobby Grich who provided wonderful offense and defense. But Weaver was willing to keep a dud bat in the lineup if the glove was great enough. Just ask Mark Belanger.

From 1969 to 82, the Orioles committed just 1,506 errors. Here’s how that ranks among the 11 AL teams around for all that span:

Team errors
BAL 1,506
CLE 1,748
DET 1,773
NYY 1,786
BOX 1,892
CAL 1,909
KCR 1,943
MIL 1,951
MIN 1,959
TEX 1,968
OAK 2,004
CWS 2,023

The non-Orioles teams averaged over 1,900 errors in that period. No wonder second place is almost halfway between last and Baltimore.

Baltimore also pulled off 2,226 double plays in those years. That’s 13 behind the Red Sox for most in the AL, but Boston allowed nearly 2,000 more hits and almost 1,000 more walks than Baltimore.

Weaver always wanted someone who could be excellent at some aspect of the game. That was preferable to a player who simply wasn’t bad at something else. He’d make up for Belanger’s bat with Boog Powell’s stick, just like Belanger glove meant it didn’t matter much if Powell wasn’t much of a fielder.

8. Weaver leaned on his starting pitchers to a historic degree

Here’s one of the great facts in baseball history: The Baltimore Orioles had at least one 20-game winner every year from 1968 to 1980. You won’t find that happening with too many other teams over the last 90-100 years. The streak would’ve lasted a year longer had it not been for the 1981 strike. Dennis Martinez led the league with 14 in that shortened season.

In all, Weaver had 22 different 20-win performances, easily the most by any manager since 1920. The runner-up is Al Lopez, way back with 16. Jim Palmer had eight 20-win seasons by himself, and the 1971 club had four 20-game winners.

Weaver loved leaning on his starters. The Orioles had 783 complete games from 1969-82. No other AL squad had more than 634. Weaver had a pitcher throw at least 250 innings 32 times. Since 1920, only Walter Alston tops that, with 36.

Weaver’s system worked for Baltimore. From 1969-82, the Orioles had easily the best ERA in the AL: 3.29. Only one other team was below 3.50. Actually, what Weaver did with his pitchers fit perfectly with what he did with his position players.

After all, a lot of that ERA came from the team’s wondrous defensive core. In fact, Weaver wanted his team to rely on its defenders. Baltimore pitchers never were much for striking batters out. Only the Royals and Brewers fanned fewer from 1969 to 82. Weaver didn’t need flamethrowers as long as his fielders caught the ball.

What Weaver needed from his pitchers was control. Only the Yankees walked fewer batters than Weaver’s squad did from 1969 to 82. Weaver thus had complementing defensive strengths; his pitchers wouldn’t short-circuit the defenders by issuing any free passes, and in turn, the defenders would bail out the hurlers when need be. This made the sum more than the whole of its parts. It’s not an idea original to Weaver—Charlie Comiskey did it with the 1880s St. Louis teams and subsequent managers like Bill McKechnie, and Al Lopez adopted it—but Weaver was one of the best at using this approach.

It also makes a nice bit of symmetry to Weaver’s offenses. In both cases, walks gave Weaver a decided advantage.

9. His career saved the worst for last

Here’s a great trivia question: Among skippers who lasted over five years in the big leagues, only two had a winning season every year they managed (and this includes partial seasons). Those two are Hall of Famer Joe McCarthy and the completely forgotten Steve O’Neill.

Two others would’ve joined them had they not come back from retirement. Al Lopez left the dugout in 1965, but two subsequent interim stints gave him a sub-.500 mark. Earl Weaver had a winning record every year he managed the Orioles, but he couldn’t stay retired when he left after 1982.

He returned in 1985 and finished a little over .500, and 1986 looked like it would be another fine year. On Aug. 2, a 9-2 stomping of the Rangers gave Baltimore a 59-47 record, leaving the Orioles just 2.5 games out of first place. In the past, Weaver’s teams had the knack for making great stretch runs, and it looked like it was their time to shine again.

Instead, Baltimore dropped five straight. A week later the O's lost four straight. The next week saw seven consecutive defeats.

Before you could say, “What happened to the season?,” Baltimore had dropped 42 of its last 56, finishing in last place with a 73-89 record, 22.5 games out of first.

This time Weaver retired and stayed retired.

10. His lineage: Davey Johnson

Weaver is gone, but you can see his clear imprint on a former player of his who has become quite a successful, manager: former Orioles second baseman Davey Johnson.

Weaver loved playing for the big inning? So does Johnson. Weaver had great benches? Five times Johnson has had the best bench in baseball, and his 1985 Mets may have possessed the best bench in baseball history. Weaver liked leaning on his starting pitchers? Johnson sure did, especially in his opening tenure with the Mets and their young studs like Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez and Ron Darling. Alas, Johnson also resembles Weaver by having several postseason disappointments, but he also has one ring.

It’s therefore fitting that Johnson managed the Orioles in their mid-1990s glory stretch, and that he now works in nearby Washington, D.C., which was part of the Orioles’ sphere of influence for most of Weaver’s career.

11. Best regarded and most widely heralded manager since Casey Stengel.

One final, extra item. There are a lot of great managers, but hardly any have the stature of Earl Weaver. To statheads, who often dismiss the importance of managers in general, Weaver is held up as a great one. He figured out the importance of getting on base and how a sacrifice bunt can hurt well before Bill James caught on. And he also recognized defensive value well before sabermetrics caught up.

To old-school guys, who often mock anything smacking of sabermetrics, Weaver is also held up as an ultimate manager. He had panache and drive. He was the ultimate gamer, willing to fight for any little detail. He was a master psychologist who did whatever he could to get his team ready. Weaver also had style, as evidenced by his numerous run-ins with umpires.

Weaver wasn’t just respected, he was idealized, and idealized by all sorts of fans who normally don’t agree on much else. Weaver had achievements, vision, consistency, and the right image. He displayed style and substance. Of all the great managers of the 1970s and 1980s, Weaver has the best reputation.

Among previous managers, only John McGraw, Connie Mack and Casey Stengel have a similar position in the game’s folklore. Since Weaver, only Tony LaRussa threatens to join the pantheon—he probably will, but his performances were too recent to say.

Pushing Weaver into that most rarified of air is that he had clear visions of how he wanted both to score and prevent the opposition from scoring. He wanted big innings on offense and control pitching backed up by great fielding on defense. Many managers have one of the two. Joe McCarthy and Sparky Anderson had similar offensive strategies to Weaver. Bill McKechnie and Al Lopez had the same defense approach.

But Weaver had both, and he implemented them both beautifully. That’s what made him so very special as a manager.
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jdcurt2 said:
Cincinnati to host All-Star Game in 2015. :smokin

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/...eball-sources-All-Star-Game-coming-Cincinnati

Can't Wait!
Click to expand...

About damn time. Now its time for the City and its leaders to get in gear about a lot of the issues and development. They absolutely need to address the lack of shopping and dining downtown.

About time laugh.gif. Cincy has been hoping for this the past 8 years or so
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I've been hearing about since I was in 8th grade :lol:
 
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The ASG in Cincy is the greatest news I've ever heard. Don't even care that its 2.5 years away. I can't wait.
 
Braves' window of contention.

Atlanta Braves

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
The Braves may have won 94 games in 2012, but keeping up with the Nationals in the NL East isn't going to be easy for the next few seasons. They've replaced center fielder Michael Bourn with B.J. Upton, but Chipper Jones' retirement has left a hole in the middle of their lineup. It also doesn't help that catcher Brian McCann will miss some time after shoulder surgery.

They do have a solid core of young players on the mound and in the field, but it will be a couple of years before that group peaks, and they are helped by they fact that they don't have much dead weight in salary.

Extension candidates
Freddie Freeman, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2016): He won't cost top dollar to sign long-term because he's not a 30-plus homer guy. But just in case he happens to become that any time over the next few years, the Braves would be smart to try to extend him now at a price reasonable for a first baseman who can hit .280 with 25 homers.
ATL payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $56M (7)
2014 $28M (12)
2015 $27M
2016 $15M
2017 $16M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Jason Heyward, RF (2015): One of the reasons that B.J. Upton was able to land such a lucrative contract despite an inconsistent career is that he's still young and talented players rarely reach free agency at just 28 years old. Heyward will be 26 when he's eligible for free agency after the 2015 season. Cha-ching! After bouncing back from an injury-plagued sophomore season in 2011, there's not much doubt that Heyward is on his way to becoming one of the premier outfielders in the National League and the new face of the franchise of the Braves.

Craig Kimbrel, CL (2016): Already one of the most dominant closers in the game at age 24, Kimbrel has a 1.46 ERA, 89 saves and a 15.9 K/9 in 163 career relief appearances. Young dominant closers are rare, so any contract extension with Kimbrel would likely set a precedent in value.

Kris Medlen, RHP (2015): His salary in year one of arbitration won't be much more than around $2 million, because his stint as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball didn't start until he was moved from the bullpen in late July. If he keeps it up into the 2013 season and beyond, his price will continue to go through the roof.

Weaknesses
Young position players Freeman, Heyward and Andrelton Simmons are already in Atlanta, but there don't appear to be many others on the way in the near future. Catcher Christian Bethancourt is one of the best defensive catchers in the minors but has a long way to go with the bat.

Potential free agent targets
A replacement for Chipper Jones will be hard to come by over the next two offseasons. The best opportunity could come after the 2014 season when current Padres third baseman Chase Headley hits free agency. The Braves won't be the only team interested, and he won't come cheap, especially if his next two seasons are anything like his last. But he could be just what they need to put them over the top.

Trade bait
With several young pitching prospects closing in on the big leagues, the Braves could look to shop one of their current starters next offseason. Brandon Beachy or Mike Minor will have value as young, talented and controllable pitchers. If the Braves feel like a few of their up-and-coming prospects like Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Sean Gilmartin, J.R. Graham and Zeke Spruill are ready to start succeeding in the majors, it's almost a certainty they'll look to upgrade their offense through a trade(s).

Waiting in the wings
Teheran debuted in the majors in 2011 as a 20-year-old, but took a few steps backward in 2012 (5.08 ERA in 131 Triple-A innings) but still flashes top-of-the-rotation potential and has a very good chance to win a rotation spot to start the season. If he doesn't break through in 2013, look for Gilmartin or Graham to be given a shot the next time the rotation has an opening. If you're looking for a new face in the big-league lineup, Gattis has a chance to get some at-bats in left field in 2013.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Christian Bethancourt, C (2014); Evan Gattis, LF (2013); J.R. Graham, RHP (2014); Lucas Sims, RHP (2016); Julio Teheran, RHP (2013); Sean Gilmartin, LHP (2014)

Marlins' window of contention.

Miami Marlins

Optimal year of contention: 2016

Overview
There's no telling which direction the Marlins are going from year to year. After this offseason, though, it's hard to see them being a contender for at least the next few seasons. Sure, they could go on another free agent spending spree, but it'll probably take at least a couple years before they forget how that didn't go according to plan the last time. So I'll go ahead and target 2016 as the season they begin to make some noise once again in the NL East.

If they happen to hold on to Giancarlo Stanton, it could be his last season in Miami before becoming a free agent. By that time, current prospects Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick should already have some big league experience under their belts and, if you really wanted to look that far ahead, I suppose the starting rotation could be pretty good if Jose Fernandez, Justin Nicolino, Jacob Turner, Nate Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney can all be close to what they're projected to be.

Extension candidates
Giancarlo Stanton, RF (eligible for free agency after 2016): There's no reason to list any player in this category other than Stanton. If the Marlins can convince the 23-year-old that the organization is headed in the right direction and then throw a ridiculous amount of money at him, maybe he signs long-term and the Marlins are no longer seen as the laughingstock they've become over the past two months. By the time Stanton is eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, he'll probably already be halfway to 500 homers and very likely to have established himself as the premier home run hitter in baseball. He's that good.
MIA payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $35M (2)
2014 $9M (8)
2015 $0M
2016 $0M0
2017 $0M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

The Marlins have time on their side, however, as Stanton can't go anywhere for the next four seasons even if he eventually went as far as demanding to be traded. And even though a trade could bring back one of the biggest packages of young talent we've ever seen in a deal for one player, I question whether any of the other 29 teams has that kind of package to offer.

Weaknesses
This one's easy. They traded away all but one of their best players and don't really have the minor league talent ready to step in and compete. They're also unlikely to be huge players in free agency for a couple of years. So they are in full-fledged rebuilding mode and will get beat up on in a very tough division for at least the next two seasons.

Potential free agent targets
Assuming the Marlins are ready to compete in a couple of years, they will most likely be looking to target a middle infielder, as their system is bare at those two spots. Florida native Ian Desmond will likely be the biggest name of the shortstops available after the 2015 season. Elvis Andrus could be a target if they decide to jump back into free agency after 2014, and, because you just never know with this team, it's worth mentioning that second baseman Robinson Cano will be a free agent next offseason.

Trade bait
I've mentioned the problem with trying to trade Stanton. It's unlikely that any team possesses the package of prospects that equals his value. Two players who have a better chance of being dealt sometime during the next season are veteran Ricky Nolasco, who could be a nice back-of-the-rotation starter for a contender willing to take on at least some of his $11.5M salary for 2013, and Logan Morrison, whose value could skyrocket with a few healthy and productive months.

Waiting in the wings
If there is a silver lining in the Marlins' rebuilding plan, it's that they won't have to wait too long for many of their top prospects to arrive in Miami. The best of the bunch could all arrive at some point in 2014. And if they do happen to trade Stanton, the prospects they'd receive could push this farm system to the top of the rankings.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Jacob Realmuto, C (2014); Jack Marisnick, OF (2014); Christian Yelich, OF (2014); Jose Fernandez, RHP (2014); Justin Nicolino, LHP (2014)

Mets' window of contention.

New York Mets

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
How can the Mets go from 74 wins and 24 games out in their division in 2012 to World Series Contender in a matter of a few seasons? First off, the contracts of Jason Bay and Johan Santana are officially off the books after the 2013 season -- aside from $8.5M in buyouts -- and only David Wright and Jon Niese, two productive players in the prime of their career, are signed long-term. The top catching prospect in baseball, Travis d'Arnaud, will be a regular in the Mets' lineup at some point in 2013 and he'll be working with a very good rotation that will probably include Niese, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler in the top three spots going into 2014.

Even if the team does not have the means to boost payroll back to the typical $115M-$150M range it had been between 2007-2011 prior to the Bernie Madoff mess, GM Sandy Alderson will still have plenty of free agent shopping money and, more importantly, the ability to sign the team's best young players to long-term contract extensions. If he can spend wisely, Mets fans should soon be cheering on a winning team for the first time since Citi Field opened in 2009.

Extension candidates
Ike Davis, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2016): His overall game line (.227/.308/.462) left a bit to be desired in 2012, but the 25 year-old overcame a brutal start to lead the team with 32 homers, which was third-most in baseball at his position. And his 21 homers on the road were second behind only Adam Dunn and tied with Josh Hamilton and Giancarlo Stanton. Pretty good company, right?
NYM payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $70M (3)
2014 $33M (7)
2015 $27M
2016 $29M
2017 $20M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Matt Harvey, RHP (2018): After two solid seasons in the majors, Niese agreed to a five-year extension with a pair of club options that could keep him in New York through the 2018 season. I could see the Mets trying to do something very similar with Harvey in terms of contract length and when it gets done (after two full big league seasons), but it's likely to cost more than the $25.5M guaranteed if his first 10 big league starts are any indication.

Weaknesses
The current team might possess the worst outfield in baseball and there really isn't a lot down on the farm. Brandon Nimmo, the 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft, is years away and far from being a surefire impact major leaguer. They'll have to jump back into free agency next offseason or trade from an area of depth (starting pitching) to upgrade.

Potential free agent targets
The Mets will need to find an outfielder, another outfielder, and probably one more outfielder if they want to possess a lineup that actually strikes fear into opposing teams. They'll use 2013 to find out if Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Collin Cowgill can be part of the equation long-term, but it's more likely they're better fits as part-time players.

The free-agent market will be deep in very good outfielders over the next two offseasons and the Mets will have the payroll space to afford at least two. Here (in alphabetical order) are some of the more productive options they might have: Melky Cabrera (after the 2014 season), Shin Soo-Choo (2013), Coco Crisp (2013 or 2014 if club option exercised), Nelson Cruz (2013), Jacoby Ellsbury (2013), Brett Gardner (2014), Carlos Gomez (2013), Corey Hart (2013), David Murphy (2013), Hunter Pence (2013), Colby Rasmus (2014), Chris Young (2013 or 2014 if club option exercised).

Trade bait
If Johan Santana can repeat his first half of 2012 -- 3.98 ERA with 65 K's in 63 1/3 innings -- he should have plenty of interest from contending teams around the 2013 trade deadline. If the Mets eat most or all of his remaining salary, they could end up with a decent prospect in return. Just don't expect another d'Arnaud or Zack Wheeler-caliber prospect. Then again, I wasn't expecting d'Arnaud for one season of R.A. Dickey or Wheeler for two months of Carlos Beltran.

Waiting in the wings
Only a handful of teams have two prospects in their farm system who are legitimate top-20 prospects. The Mets are one of those teams and it just so happens that their pair of top prospects, d'Arnaud and Wheeler, should be in the majors at some point in 2013. An impressive crop of pitching prospects, including Michael Fulmer, Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and Domingo Tapia, could begin to arrive in 2015. Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia might not have what it takes to remain starters, but both could end up being impact late-inning relievers.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Travis d'Arnaud, C (2013); Michael Fulmer, RHP (2015); Noah Syndergaard, RHP (2015); Zack Wheeler, RHP (2013)

Phillies' window of contention.

Philadelphia Phillies

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
The Phillies' strong second half (44-31) reminded us that a great starting rotation can carry a team no matter how ordinary the rest of the team is. It wasn't quite enough to make up for an awful first half, though.

After their bullpen failed them for the majority of the season, the Phillies signed top setup man Mike Adams to bridge the gap to closer Jonathan Papelbon. The offense should be better with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley expected to be at full health for the start of the season after missing much of 2012. Speedy center fielder Ben Revere and veteran third baseman Michael Young were acquired in separate trades, and former top prospect Domonic Brown will finally get a chance to play every day.

If a lot of things go right, especially if all the aging veterans stay healthy and productive for a majority of the season, this team still can be very good. And if it's good enough to earn a wild-card spot, at least, anything can happen in the playoffs. More likely than not, good things will happen with the three aces -- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels -- leading the way. The window might shut for a while, however, if they don't pull it off in 2013.

Extension candidates
Carlos Ruiz, C (eligible for free agency after 2013): Chooch will be 34 years old later this month and will serve a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test to start the season, which puts his breakout 2012 season in question. The Phillies also have two pretty good catching prospects in Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle, who will be competing in 2013 for the title of Phillies catcher of the future. But if Ruiz returns from his suspension and resembles the hitter he was last season, it might be worth exploring a two-year extension. If the Phillies are losing and looking old, a youth movement with Joseph and/or Valle would be much likelier in 2014.
PHI payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $150M (1)
2014 $102M (7)
2015 $85M
2016 $60M
2017 $32M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Weaknesses
This is a top-heavy roster without a lot of depth in the majors or minors. It appears that the Phillies' starting pitcher will be Kyle Kendrick or John Lannan about 40 percent of the time. Kendrick finished the season on a roll and Lannan is a solid No. 5 starter, but teams will be licking their chops when either pitcher is on the mound and Halladay, Lee or Hamels is not. They Phillies also are projected to start the unproven Brown at one corner-outfield spot and some combination of John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix and Darin Ruf at another spot. Although I can talk up the starting infielders by saying they have a combined 18 All-Star appearances and two MVPs among the four of them, it's hard to ignore that their average age is 34 and they are in the decline phases of their careers.

Potential free-agent targets
One potential difference-maker on the free-agent market could energize an aging lineup: Michael Bourn. He was drafted by the Phillies in 2003 and broke into the majors with them before being traded to Houston in the deal for closer Brad Lidge. Bourn and Revere could wreak havoc on the basepaths and cover a ton of ground in left and center field, helping a pitching staff that will already be tough to score against.

Trade bait
You can be sure that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will explore trades for many of his veterans if things get ugly and the Phillies aren't anywhere close to contending in July. This past July, he traded away Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino with his team 12 games under .500 and 13 games out of a playoff spot. If he finds his team in a similar situation, expect him to consider dealing anyone on that roster. You also can expect Philly veterans with any type of no-trade clause to realize that the window has probably closed for contending and to consider waiving it.

Waiting in the wings
The Phillies hope Young proves to be a capable stopgap at third base in 2013 while Cody Asche progresses in the upper minors to the point where they feel comfortable handing him the starting job in 2014. The 22-year-old, who posted an .849 OPS between high Class A Clearwater and Double-A Reading last season, has some question marks defensively, so he'll need to show improvement there before the Phillies can officially call off their search for a third baseman. They haven't had a homegrown talent manning the hot corner since Scott Rolen did from 1996 to 2002.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Tommy Joseph, C (2014); Sebastian Valle, C (2014); Cody Asche, 3B (2014); Brody Colvin, RHP (2015); Jonathan Pettibone, RHP (2013); Jesse Biddle, LHP (2014)

Nationals' window of contention.

Washington Nationals

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
The Nationals had a good chance to win it all in 2012, and that window for contention is unlikely to close the next several years. With this in mind, playing it safe with ace Stephen Strasburg and shutting him down in early September was likely a much easier decision for the front office to make.

The Nationals expect to be back in the postseason and there's no reason to think they won't be. Four of their five starting pitchers, as well as the core of their lineup and bullpen, are under team control through at least the next three seasons. More importantly, they are a talented bunch with a good balance of veteran leaders, young stars, and All-Star-caliber players in the prime of their career.

Extension candidates
Ian Desmond, SS (eligible for free agency after 2015): Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera had his final year of arbitration and one year of free agency bought out for $16.5 million after he hit 25 homers and stole 17 bases in his age-25 season. Desmond had similar numbers in 2012 (25 HR, 21 SB) during his age-26 season, but is under team control for three more years.
WAS payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $78M (8)
2014 $55M (12)
2015 $49M
2016 $48M
2017 $36M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Bryce Harper, OF (2018): Consider that Harper would be only 26 years old when he's first eligible for free agency and that there's a good chance he's the premier power hitter in the game by then. If he is, a $300 million contract doesn't seem too far-fetched. Buying out his arbitration years and adding a few club options in the $20 million to $25 million range might be of interest to Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, but I have a feeling they'll wait it out, as Boras clients usually do.

Jordan Zimmermann, RHP (2015): He'll be just 29 years old when he hits free agency three offseasons from now. Barring injury, he could be the most sought-after starting pitcher on the market.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP (2016): The Nats might have some leverage because Strasburg is still four years from free agency and understands the injury risks that come with throwing a baseball for a living. Boras (also his agent) is more likely to just wait it out, however, unless his client gets a massive deal that would make him one of the highest-paid pitchers in the game.

Weaknesses
Starting pitching depth in the upper minors is where the Nats are most vulnerable. If one of their starting five is injured, you could see the likes of Yunesky Maya or Ryan Perry in Washington. Christian Garcia, a former Yankees prospect who returned from two Tommy John surgeries to make his big league debut out of the Nats' bullpen late last season, might be their most intriguing option but that could require him to start the season in the Triple-A rotation, when he could very well be making an impact as a big league reliever.

Finding a veteran upgrade late in the offseason to serve as the team's designated No. 6 starter while pitching in Triple-A might be the best option. We'll call it "the John Lannan role."

Potential free-agent targets
The team has re-signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $24 million deal, which gives it a pretty good trade chip in Michael Morse. Morse, who also can play first, becomes the odd man out, what with Harper, Denard Span, and Jayson Werth already penciled into the three starting outfield spots. Finding a lefty setup man to replace Sean Burnett has been a challenge this offseason, but Boone Logan and Eric O'Flaherty are free agents who could be of interest next offseason.

Trade bait
Span is signed to a team-friendly contract through the 2014 season, with a reasonable $9M club option for 2015. Depending on how quickly prospect Brian Goodwin is ready for the majors, the Nats could shop Span before one of the next two offseasons to open up center field and the leadoff spot for the talented youngster. Or they could use Goodwin as a trade chip to strengthen their 25-man roster.

Waiting in the wings
The presence of third-base prospect Anthony Rendon, the sixth pick in the 2011 draft, could be a big reason why the Nats refused to add a third year to their contract offer for LaRoche. The 22-year-old is close to being major league ready and could possibly break in as the regular first baseman, with Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at the hot corner.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Anthony Rendon, 3B (2013); Brian Goodwin, CF (2014); Lucas Giolito, RHP (2015); Nathan Karns, RHP (2014); Sammy Solis, LHP (2014)
 
Cubs' window of contention.

Chicago Cubs

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
Just because a team is rebuilding doesn't mean it can't spend money. For example, the $6 million the Cubs spent on Scott Feldman, a back-of-the-rotation starter, and $5.5 million they spent on Scott Baker, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is likely to start the season on the disabled list, could be seen as wasteful considering those two alone aren't going to turn the Cubs into a contender after the team lost 101 games in 2012. But the team will be more competitive with two veterans at the back of the rotation, which is important to the fan base that spends the money to watch the product on the field.

And if the Cubs are out of the race in July, then they can turn around and trade them for prospects. It works out as long as they're not both completely terrible. In the case of Edwin Jackson's four-year deal, it not only helps the team be more competitive now, but the 29-year-old will also be a key component when the team reaches its optimal window of contention a few years down the road.

With only Jackson, shortstop Starlin Castro and prospect Jorge Soler guaranteed contracts beyond 2014, the Cubs have the financial means to go after the biggest names on the free-agent market over the next couple of offseasons as they gear up for a run in 2015. An impressive group of prospects, including Soler and Javier Baez, should be lineup regulars by then and another, 2012 first-round pick Albert Almora, should be closing in on the majors. Cubs fans shouldn't be discouraged by another losing season in 2013. If you pay close enough attention to what Theo Epstein and his crew are doing, you'll know good things are on the horizon.

Extension candidates
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2018): After getting worked over in his rookie season of 2011 while with the Padres, Rizzo was traded over the winter for Andrew Cashner and showed an ability to make adjustments with an impressive debut with the Cubs in 2012. He wasn't called up until late June and still managed to hit 15 homers and knock in 48 runs while hitting in the No. 3 spot of the lineup. If he follows it up with another solid year, the Cubs probably won't need much more convincing to get contract talks going.
CHC payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $80M (4)
2014 $49M (7)
2015 $21M
2016 $23M
2017 $12M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Matt Garza, RHP (2013): The Cubs have actually built up enough pitching depth where they could trade Garza and still have a chance to not be completely awful. But they can certainly afford to keep the 29-year-old long-term and it shouldn't be much of a surprise if they sign him to a contract extension. There is a lot of excitement internally about the direction of the organization and Garza would love to be a part of the turnaround.

Jeff Samardzija, RHP (2015): The former star wide receiver for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish shouldn't have to be referred to as "the former star wide receiver for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish" any longer after last year's breakout performance. In reality, his NFL career may have been coming to a close by now after several years of getting punished by defenders while catching passes over the middle. His baseball career is just getting off the ground, however, and he'll get paid a lot of money over the next several years to throw a baseball and not get hit by very large human beings several times over the course of a three-hour game. Good choice.

Weaknesses
The rotation is going to keep this team in games but the lineup isn't good enough to jump out to too many leads and the bullpen isn't deep enough to hold the few leads they'll have. A veteran outfield of David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz and Alfonso Soriano should give the team plenty of good at-bats, and Castro and Rizzo should take another step forward in 2013, but it won't be enough. They're just not quite there yet.

The addition of Japanese reliever Kyuji Fujikawa helps, but the success of the bullpen could depend on which version of Carlos Marmol shows up in 2013. He was awful in the first half of 2012 (5.61 ERA) and one of the best closers in baseball over the second half (1.52 ERA). Arodys Vizcaino has the potential to be a late-inning shutdown reliever but is being eased back into a starter's role in the minors after missing the 2012 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Potential free-agent targets
Welington Castillo should get a fair chance to prove he can be a solid big league catcher in 2013, but it might be his last chance because a couple of pretty good veteran backstops, Brian McCann and Carlos Ruiz, hit free agency after the season and there might not be a better chance to find one before the Cubs' projected optimal window in 2015. The presence of Almora and Soler in the farm system might keep the Cubs from going long-term on more than one free-agent outfielder. There will be plenty to choose from over the next two offseasons.

Trade bait
Go ahead and plug every veteran player on the roster into this category. If GM Jed Hoyer feels he can make the team better in 2014 and beyond by sacrificing talent from the current squad, he'll pull the trigger. And he has players with value, including Garza, DeJesus, Marmol, Soriano, Baker and Feldman.

Waiting in the wings
Almora, Baez and Soler are the big names to keep an eye on over the next several years. All three are expected to be impact players at the major league level. Vizcaino is the lone pitching prospect who has a chance to make an impact in 2013. He'll start the season in the Triple-A Iowa rotation, where the Cubs will assess whether his future will remain in the rotation or in the back of the bullpen.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Dan Vogelbach, 1B (2016); Javier Baez, SS/3B (2015); Albert Almora, OF (2016); Jorge Soler, OF (2014); Pierce Johnson, RHP (2015); Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (2013)

Reds' window of contention.

Cincinnati Reds

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
Like the Nationals in the NL East, the Reds are set up to win now and over the next several seasons. The best players on the team are all locked up on multi-year contracts and all remain in the prime of their careers. The biggest question of this offseason is whether shutdown closer Aroldis Chapman will succeed in his conversion to the rotation.

The Reds have enough depth in the bullpen to cover the move and enough depth in the rotation to cover a non-move. When that's your biggest problem, there really isn't much else to say. They'll have a tough task in repeating as NL Central champs with the St. Louis Cardinals being almost as talented on the major league level and possessing a much deeper farm system, but they're in great position to go deep into the playoffs and win it all for the first time since 1990.

Extension candidates
Todd Frazier, 3B/LF (eligible for free agency after 2017): The 26 year-old posted an .829 OPS in 128 games as a rookie while playing both corner infield spots and even a handful of games in left field. His versatility helps his value, but he'll likely settle into the starting third base role in 2013. Even if he sticks with one position, third basemen who hit and hit for power are hard to find these days.
CIN payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $74M (7)
2014 $66M (11)
2015 $54M
2016 $46M
2017 $37M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Homer Bailey, RHP (2014): He's always had top-of-the-rotation potential, but it wasn't until 2012 that the 26 year-old started to look the part, especially over his last three starts of the season. Bailey threw a no-hitter with just one walk and 10 strikeouts against the Pirates on September 28, pitched four shutout innings with no walks and six strikeouts in his final start of the regular season against St. Louis, and then allowed one run on one hit with one walk and 10 strikeouts in a playoff loss to the Giants. He'll be just 28 years old when he hits free agency after the 2014 season.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP (2016): If Chapman makes a successful transition to the rotation in 2013, he'll be worth significantly more money on the open market when he reaches free agency. The 24-year-old will also be worth more to the Reds, who have until the end of the 2016 season to try and sign him to an extension.

Mat Latos, RHP (2015): Acquired from the Padres last December, Latos overcame a shaky start to finish with a 3.48 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 209 1/3 innings. Although he did allow 18 home runs at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, his ERA was actually more than a half-run better there (3.18) than on the road (3.93). Sounds like a good long-term match to me, although my guess is it'll take a lot more than the four-year, $27 million extension teammate Johnny Cueto got at the same point in his career.

Weaknesses
Shin-Soo Choo, a left-handed hitter with a career OPS of .847, should add a lot to the top of the Reds' lineup in 2013, which regularly had guys with sub-.300s OBPs in the top two spots last year. The problem is that he'll likely be playing center field and he's not a center fielder. If he's terrible there in spring sraining, they could turn to Jay Bruce, who isn't a center fielder, either. But hey, Miguel Cabrera's move to third base didn't stop the Tigers from winning the AL pennant, right? It's just something a World Series contender probably doesn't want to worry about heading into the season.

Potential free agent targets
The Reds' two biggest signings this winter were re-signings, as they brought back Ryan Ludwick and Jonathan Broxton. There could still be two major additions, however, that might push the Reds over the top in 2013. The biggest additions will come internally if Joey Votto can stay healthy all year and if Chapman succeeds in his move to the rotation.

Trade bait
The Reds already dealt away a pretty good shortstop prospect, Didi Gregorius, in order to land Choo. They'll stand pat for now, but they have a deep enough farm system where they'll be players in July if they need some reinforcements. Every team will be asking about top prospect Billy Hamilton, but they're deeper in starting pitching prospects so they may be more willing to part with Tony Cingrani, Daniel Corcino, or Robert Stephenson in order to make the team stronger for the stretch run.

Waiting in the wings
As bad as the baseball world wants the Billy Hamilton era to begin in Cincinnati, he's learning a new position after switching from shortstop to center field this offseason and has just 50 games of experience in Double-A. So you're gonna have to be patient, baseball world. If he continues to progress, he could be leading off and patrolling center field at Great American Ball Park early in 2014. Considered to be the fastest man in baseball, the Reds could choose to call him up late in the 2013 season to use primarily as a pinch runner in close games.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Billy Hamilton, CF (2014); Tony Cingrani, LHP (2013); Daniel Corcino, RHP (2014); Robert Stephenson, RHP (2015); Nicholas Travieso, RHP (2016)

Brewers' window of contention.

Milwaukee Brewers

Optimal year of contention: 2014

Overview
With the farm system starting to show some signs of life, there is hope that the small-market Brewers could start to fill some of the holes that they're unable to fill through free agency. Unfortunately, it won't be enough in 2013, and the quiet offseason the Brewers have had could come back to haunt them in what will be a tough NL Central race this season. Sure, they still have plenty of talent on the big league roster, but they don't have the depth to afford another three-month slump from Rickie Weeks or an injury that keeps a starting pitcher out for an extended period of time.

In other words, they don't have a lot of margin for error. It doesn't mean they won't be competitive, but they might have to wait until next offseason to make another serious run at the playoffs when their younger prospects are closer to making an impact in the majors and they have another shot at filling some holes via free agency. The payroll situation doesn't change much, but they could possibly front-load a deal to add a starting pitcher or middle-of-the-lineup hitter, or both.

Extension candidates
Carlos Gomez, CF (eligible for free agency after 2013): As badly as the 27 year-old Gomez has struggled with the bat for the majority of his career, the fact is that he's a defensively gifted center fielder who finished the 2012 season with 19 homers and 37 stolen bases even though he wasn't playing regularly until the second half of the year. His second-half numbers read as follows: .809 OPS, 14 homers, 26 steals. Somebody's gonna pay this man a lot of money.
MIL payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $53M (5)
2014 $53M (5)
2015 $19M
2016 $23M
2017 $19M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Marco Estrada, RHP (2015): Unless the Brewers think 2012 was a fluke when Estrada posted a 3.64 ERA and a ridiculous Cliff Lee-like 4.93 K/BB ratio in a career-high 138 1/3 innings pitched, then a contract extension is not out of the question with Estrada entering his first year of arbitration.

Weaknesses
It's not even so much the overall pitching depth, it's the lack of proven pitchers they can pencil in for 190 innings and a 4.00 ERA. Those guys are valuable in the middle and back of rotations, and the Brewers have so many unknowns.

After ace Yovani Gallardo and Estrada, they could have as many as eight pitchers, mostly rookies, competing for the last three spots in the rotation. Lefty Chris Narveson would be the lone veteran from that group and he's returning from rotator cuff surgery. With eight pitchers vying for three spots, odds are pretty good that a couple of them end up being pretty good, right? Maybe, but would you consider yourself a contender when you have your fingers crossed that two or three unproven pitchers emerge as reliable options? Didn't think so.

Potential free-agent targets
The Brewers should know a lot more about their starting pitching by next offseason, and I'm guessing that they'll feel really good about having guys such as Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg to rely on in 2014. But I'm also guessing they'd love to find another starter to pair with Gallardo at the top of the rotation. A few of the more intriguing names expected to be available on the free-agent market after the 2013 season and would look great in a Brewers' uniform: Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright.

Trade bait
The roster is full of guys who are under contract and can help them win in 2014, but free-agent-to-be Corey Hart should have plenty of interest at the trade deadline if the Brewers aren't anywhere close to a playoff spot. Mat Gamel, who was the starting first baseman last April before blowing out his knee in early May, would be the logical choice to step in if Hart is traded. He's expected to fill a utility role off the bench for now. If prospect Hunter Morris has another big year in the upper minors, the Brewers could consider him the long-term answer at first base.

Waiting in the wings
There won't be a shortage of young pitchers making their way to Milwaukee in 2013, with plenty of major league-caliber arms in the system. If anything, the Brewers should be able to find out who is ready to help out during their "optimal window of contention" year in 2014. Both Thornburg and Johnny Hellweg, who was acquired from the Angels in the Zack Greinke deal and can hit triple digits on the radar gun, have potential to be dominant late-inning relievers. For now, they'll get every opportunity to prove that they can be effective starting pitchers long-term. Keep an eye on the progress of Scooter Gennett and Hunter Morris, who could be manning the right side of the Brewers' infield in a couple of ears. Both are likely to start the season in Triple-A Nashville.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Clint Coulter, C (2016); Hunter Morris, 1B (2014); Scooter Gennett, 2B (2014); Johnny Hellweg, RHP (2014); Taylor Jungmann, RHP (2014); Wily Peralta, RHP (2013); Tyler Thornburg, RHP (2013)

Pirates' window of contention.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Optimal year of contention: 2016

Overview
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The Pirates' first step to becoming a World Series contender is to actually have a winning season. In fact, the Pirates and their fans should celebrate that feat as if they actually did win the World Series, considering they haven't had a winning season since 1992. I think 2013 will be that year. I also thought that last year and the year before, but maybe the third time is the charm.

The projected 25-man roster is solid and balanced, and the top pitching prospects we've been hearing about for the past few years are inching closer to the majors. Their superstar center fielder is locked up through the next six seasons. It might not feel like it until the losing streak is finally lifted, but things are looking up for the Buccos. Just try and be satisfied with an 85-win season in 2013.

Extension candidates
Neil Walker, 2B (eligible for free agency after 2016): One of the more productive hitters in baseball among second basemen, Walker has also become a very solid defender at the position. The Pittsburgh native is entering his first of what could end up being four years of arbitration eligibility.
PIT payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $39M (5)
2014 $26M (9)
2015 $14M
2016 $17M
2017 $14M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

A.J. Burnett, RHP (2013): He'll turn 37 next offseason, but he has averaged 33 starts and 201 innings over the past five seasons. Extending the workhorse for one or two more years would take pressure off the top pitching prospects who might not be ready to make 30-plus starts right away.

James McDonald, RHP (2015): He went 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA in the first half of 2012 and 3-5 with a 7.52 ERA in the second half. Not exactly the kind of performance that ignites contract-extension talk, but a more consistent season in 2013 will have McDonald on his way to a huge payday when he reaches free agency after the 2015 season.

Weaknesses
The Pirates are actually a well-rounded team with talent in the lineup, rotation and bullpen. They're just not quite as good as the Reds or Cardinals. At least not yet. They did fill some holes through free agency, signing veteran catcher Russell Martin to a two-year deal and re-signing reliever Jason Grilli, and they'll have a full year of Wandy Rodriguez, who was acquired from Houston in July. But they'll be relying on a lot of young and unproven players.

Starling Marte and Travis Snider could flank Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Kyle McPherson and/or Jeff Locke could be in the starting rotation. Bryan Morris and Justin Wilson could take on significant roles in the bullpen. These players can all potentially be very good, but all could experience growing pains while learning on the job in 2013.

Potential free-agent targets
Only McCutchen and Jose Tabata are signed to guaranteed deals beyond 2014, so there appears to be some payroll flexibility in the team's future. At some point, the Pirates are going to have to put all their chips on the table and go for it. The 2016 team could have top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon at the top of the rotation, with Marte, McCutchen, Walker and power-hitting third baseman Pedro Alvarez leading the charge on offense, and with prospects Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco just starting their major league careers.

Depending on how other prospects progress, there may or may not be a need to fill potential holes at catcher, at first base and in the rotation. It is worth noting, though, that catcher Matt Wieters and first baseman Chris Davis will be eligible for free agency after the 2015 season, along with several notable starting pitchers who could help a team ready to win it all.

Trade bait
A winning season in 2013 is a must for this organization, so the veterans are likely staying put unless they start to fall well behind that goal in July. Even in that case, it would be tough to start trading players away who could help the Pirates avoid their 22nd straight losing season in 2014. Burnett and Clint Barmes are the only players set to become free agents; Wandy Rodriguez will be if they don't plan on picking up his club option, so those are the names that could potentially be shopped in-season. The front office has exhibited great patience in not trading away the Bucs' best prospects during the past two in-season runs, so I wouldn't expect that to change now or anytime in the next couple of years.

Waiting in the wings
The Pirates employ two of the best pitching prospects in the game, Cole and Taillon, and a third, Luis Heredia, isn't that far behind. These are the prospects the Pirates have refused to part with to make a big splash at the trade deadline the past two seasons. Their patience will start paying off soon, with Cole expected to debut at some point in 2013, Taillon in 2014 and Heredia as early as 2015. All three could be part of the rotation during their "optimal window of contention" year in 2016.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Wyatt Mathisen, C (2016); Alen Hanson, SS (2015); Gregory Polanco, OF (2015); Gerrit Cole, RHP (2013); Luis Heredia, RHP (2016); Jameson Taillon, RHP (2014)

Cardinals' window of contention.

St. Louis Cardinals

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
Having an "optimal window of contention" during the same year as the division rival Cincinnati Reds means that a really good team isn't going to win this division. It's probably good news for baseball fans, though, who will get to watch a very interesting battle in the NL Central that could go down to the wire.

The Cardinals, a veteran team with several guys walking around with a World Series ring or two, are set up to win now and in the future. Their top two starting pitchers, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, are free agents after the 2013 season, but there are several very good prospects ready to step in and succeed at the major league level. One of the best prospects in baseball, Oscar Taveras, will replace free agent-to-be Carlos Beltran in the starting lineup in 2014. They'll also have the payroll flexibility to be active in free agency and the trade market. So this machine isn't expected to slow down anytime soon.

It's the slight uncertainty of what a younger Cardinals rotation can do in the coming years that makes me lean toward 2013 as their "optimal window" with Carpenter and Wainwright still at the front of the rotation.

Extension candidates
Allen Craig, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2016): It took a couple years for Craig to finally lock down a spot in the everyday lineup, playing first base almost exclusively with Lance Berkman injured. Now, it's hard to see him not playing regularly for the next four seasons while he's under team control. The 28-year-old has become an integral part of the Cardinals' offense.
STL payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $94M (5)
2014 $46M (8)
2015 $44M
2016 $31M
2017 $15M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

David Freese, 3B (2015): The 2011 World Series hero, who turns 30 in April, got a late start in the big leagues, so he won't be a young third baseman when he hits free agency. If he's still productive he'll still get a pretty nice payday, but his value might not ever be higher than right now, after he posted an .839 OPS in a career-high 144 games in 2012.

Jason Motte, RHP (2014): The Cardinals have a prospect named Trevor Rosenthal who has the ability to close games in the near future, and could certainly be ready to take on the role after Motte becomes a free agent. But many think Rosenthal can also be a very good starter, so maybe there's a future for Motte in St. Louis beyond the next two seasons. The 30-year-old is coming off a terrific first season (42 saves, 2.75 ERA) as the Cardinals' closer.

Weaknesses
Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma were surprisingly productive late last season, but the Cardinals' middle infield doesn't provide much offensively these days. Veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal appears to have avoided Tommy John surgery for now, but the 35-year-old can't be counted on to be the dynamic player he once was.

Therefore, the Cardinals could be counting on Kozma to provide some more of what he gave them in September, when he hit .349 with 10 extra-base hits in 63 at-bats. Unfortunately, he's probably closer to the guy who hit .223 with 14 homers in 243 games over the past two Triple-A seasons. At second base, Kolten Wong could eventually be a guy who provides plenty of offense at the position, but he's at least a half-season away from the majors.

Potential free-agent targets
Two free agents, utilityman Ty Wigginton and lefty specialist Randy Choate, were added this offseason. Unless the Cardinals really value the power of free-agent second baseman Kelly Johnson over Descalso's solid defense -- I doubt that's the case -- it appears they're all set for 2013. The farm system should allow them to fill several holes over the next few years, but I wouldn't count them out on any free-agent starting pitcher or shortstop over the next few seasons.

Trade bait
The farm system is so deep that the Cardinals don't have to give up their two best prospects -- righty Shelby Miller or outfielder Oscar Taveras -- to acquire an impact player to add to their 25-man roster. Their system is arguably the best in baseball, and they might even be able to put together two prospect packages and still have plenty of talent left over. A middle infield acquisition in June or July wouldn't be a huge surprise.

Waiting in the wings
Miller and Rosenthal both reached the majors in 2012 and both should return in 2013. Both will compete for a rotation spot in spring training, although Rosenthal is a strong bet to pitch out of the Cardinals' bullpen, where he can utilize his upper 90s fastball to hold late-inning leads. The 22-year-old Miller dominated late in the Triple-A season and was impressive during his big league stint. Wong and Taveras could make appearances in 2013, but it won't be until the following season that they become lineup regulars.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Matt Adams, 1B (2013); Kolten Wong, 2B (2014); Oscar Taveras, OF (2013); Carlos Martinez, RHP (2014); Shelby Miller, RHP (2013); Trevor Rosenthal, RHP (2013); Michael Wacha, RHP (2015)
 
D-backs' window of contention.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Optimal year of contention: 2014

Overview
It's been a crazy offseason for the Diamondbacks, who traded away Chris Young to clear up a crowded outfield, only to sign Cody Ross two months later. They acquired Cliff Pennington in the Young trade, filling a hole at shortstop, but then traded away top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer in a three-way deal to land another shortstop, Didi Gregorius, who some scouts love but is far from a surefire impact major leaguer.

Maybe there is a method to GM Kevin Towers' madness. He nearly pulled off a deal that would've sent Justin Upton to the Mariners, but Upton vetoed the deal. I imagine he'll keep trying to find a fit, although it's hard to see other teams matching Seattle's offer, which included Taijuan Walker, one of the top five pitching prospects in baseball. What can't be overlooked, however, amid the head-scratching offseason moves and Upton trade rumors is a very talented roster that has as good a chance as any team in the division to come out on the top of the NL West over the next few years.

Extension candidates
Aaron Hill, 2B (eligible for free agency after 2013): The D-backs re-signed Hill to a two-year, $11 million deal after the 2011 season, which has turned out to be a bargain after he posted a career-best .882 OPS in 156 games last season. He'll be just 31 on Opening Day and in line for a huge payday if he can come close to repeating his 2012 production.
ARI payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $69M (6)
2014 $57M (10)
2015 $46M
2016 $15M
2017 $14M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Ian Kennedy, RHP (2015): In three injury-free seasons with Arizona, the 28-year-old has a 45-26 record, 3.55 ERA and 3.07 K/BB ratio while averaging 208 1/3 innings per season. He'll reach free agency as a 30-year-old and stands to make a fortune if he continues doing what he's been doing. Trevor Cahill could also become a free agent after the 2015 season, although the D-backs hold club options at $13 million in 2016 and $13.5 million in 2017. Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs will also be making more through arbitration by then and could end up being extension candidates, as well.

Weaknesses
Towers' top priority this offseason was acquiring a shortstop after the departure of free agent Stephen Drew. And he not only acquired one right out of the gate, but he later acquired the team's shortstop of the near future. The problem is that neither Cliff Pennington, who had a .589 OPS in 2012, nor Didi Gregorius, who has a career .699 OPS in the minors, are likely to provide much offensively.

Gregorius is regarded as a plus defender and he has his believers, especially after a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, but he might not even be the best shortstop prospect in the organization. Chris Owings still has ways to go, but the upside is significant and he could easily surpass Gregorius in a year or two.

Potential free-agent targets
If you think prospects Matt Davidson and Gregorius are the long-term answers at third and short, respectively, the team doesn't have any glaring weaknesses on the horizon. If either falters this year, they could go shopping for someone at either spot -- Martin Prado is a free agent next winter -- but it's likely they will target a young third baseman in any Upton trade, as Davidson is far from a sure thing.

Trade bait
If it's not Upton, who could bring Towers a top pitching prospect and third baseman of the near future (Mike Olt of the Rangers could be a fit), the D-backs could eventually trade Jason Kubel to a team in need of some left-handed pop. In addition, Daniel Hudson should return from Tommy John surgery late in the season, which could once again put the D-backs in the enviable position of having plenty of good starting pitching depth heading into the offseason. Barring injury, the current group of projected starters, Hudson and Pat Corbin give the team seven very good rotation options for 2014, with another top prospect, Archie Bradley, likely just a phone call away in the upper minors.

Waiting in the wings
One of the reasons Towers was so willing to trade away Chris Young -- and why he's aggressively shopping Upton -- is to open a lineup spot for Adam Eaton, the prototypical leadoff hitter/sparkplug that the D-backs have lacked for years. The 24-year-old, who had a .382 OBP in 22 games during a September call-up, had little trouble in his three minor league seasons. In 319 games, Eaton posted a .355/.456/.510 slash line with 98 stolen bases, while not slowing a bit as he rose to Double-A and Triple-A.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Matt Davidson, 3B (2014); Didi Gregorius, SS (2013); Chris Owings, SS (2014); Adam Eaton, OF (2013); Archie Bradley, RHP (2014); Tyler Skaggs, LHP (2013)

Rockies' window of contention.

Colorado Rockies

Optimal year of contention: 2016

Overview
The Rockies have gone from 92-win playoff team in 2009 to 98-loss team in 2012, and things might not get much better anytime soon. If Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki can stay healthy, the team could be much better in 2013, but the road back to division contender will still be a long one.

The pitching staff was a mess last season and it's really hard to tell which of the team's young pitchers will succeed in the thin air of Coors Field. I don't think the Rockies even know that, although they'll be relying on 25-year-old Jhoulys Chacin, 26-year-old Juan Nicasio and 24-year-old Drew Pomeranz, among other young pitchers, to help reverse the four-year decline that landed them at the bottom of the NL West last season. Their veteran lineup and strong back of the bullpen, which includes Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Wilton Lopez and Rex Brothers, will only take them so far. If the starting pitching doesn't improve by leaps and bounds, it will be another ugly season (or two) in Colorado.

Extension candidates
Dexter Fowler, CF (eligible for free agency after 2015): Trading the 26-year-old switch-hitter could be just as likely as the team extending him, although his home/road splits drop his value significantly for the 29 teams that don't play at Coors Field 81 times per season. Still, he's at least an average hitter on the road and it wouldn't be a surprise if he continued to improve over the next year or two. Center fielder of the future David Dahl could be ready to take over when Fowler reaches free agency, although an outfield of CarGo, Fowler and Dahl roaming spacious Coors Field once the team is ready to contend would be fun to watch.
COL payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $57M (6)
2014 $37M (8)
2015 $36M
2016 $37M
2017 $40M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Weaknesses
In the seven seasons pre-humidor at Coors Field (1995-2001), the Rockies' pitching staff sported an ERA over 6.00. Over the next 10 seasons (2002-11), the ERA has been under 5.00. The humidor either really worked to even the playing field for pitchers, or the Rockies' pitching staff was just much better over the course of the first decade with the humidor at work.

If this humidor still works to keep the baseball more pitcher-friendly, I'd hate to see where the 2012 rotation would've been without it. Fourteen different pitchers combined to post a 5.81 ERA and allow 127 homers. Three members of the upcoming season's projected rotation -- Chacin, Nicasio and Jorge De La Rosa -- combined to make just 28 starts in 2012 because of injuries, and there isn't much depth behind them in 2013. The team's top pitching prospect, Tyler Matzek, is still a few years away and their next best pitching prospect, Chad Bettis, missed all of 2012 with a shoulder injury.

Potential free-agent targets
One thing we know for certain is that free-agent pitchers don't have Colorado on their radars. The organization must rely on the farm system and trades, then try to lock up any young pitchers who happen to be relatively successful at Coors Field. By the time the 2015-16 offseason rolls around, CarGo and Tulo will still be in their primes, Nolan Arenado, David Dahl and Trevor Story could be lineup regulars, and the Rockies might not need to make a splash in free agency to be good.

If they continue to struggle with developing pitchers through the farm system, however, they might have to trade some of their best young hitting prospects for pitching and fill holes in their lineup through free agency. Drawing free-agent hitters to Coors Field shouldn't be a challenge.

Trade bait
Teams have been unwilling to meet Colorado's price for Fowler, given his very average numbers on the road. The same could be said for Gonzalez -- who has a 1.047 OPS at Coors Field and .747 OPS on the road over the past three seasons -- if they were to shop him.

The team's biggest trade chip would be Tulowitzki, who is only 28 years old and is signed through 2020, with a club option for 2021. He could net the Rockies a huge package of prospects, and the trade probably wouldn't even push back the team's window of contention. They'd be worse now, but could be a much stronger team in two years when Story, another potential five-tool shortstop, is ready to take on an everyday role, and some of the prospects acquired for Tulowitzki are ready to make an impact. A more realistic scenario has the Rockies dropping out of contention by early July, and then shopping veterans De La Rosa, Betancourt, Belisle and Michael Cuddyer, with young pitching being the target in any case.

Waiting in the wings
In 68 career Class A starts, 2009 first-round draft pick Tyler Matzek has a 6.9 BB/9 ratio, yet there are still high hopes that the erratic lefty can be a top-of-the-rotation starter a few years down the line. The 22-year-old has a mid-90's fastball and the makings of a plus breaking ball, but it could take some time before he can command his arsenal. Bettis will likely be eased into the Double-A rotation, where the Rockies can monitor his progress as he returns from a shoulder injury and determine if he'll remain a starter down the road, or end up as a late-inning reliever.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Nolan Arenado, 3B (2014); Trevor Story, SS/2B (2015); David Dahl, OF (2015); Chad Bettis, RHP (2014); Tyler Matzek, LHP (2014)

Dodgers' window of contention.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
On paper, the Dodgers might be the most talented team in baseball. As baseball fans should know, however, this doesn't always amount to much.

The Dodgers were 68-58 when they pulled off a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and an injured Carl Crawford in the midst of a close race in the NL West. They went 18-18 from that point on, losing five games in the standings to the eventual World Series champion Giants, and missing the playoffs altogether. They continued to add this offseason, signing top free agent Zack Greinke to a $147 million deal, and are unlikely to shy away from adding to their payroll again during the season. New ownership wants to win now and has given manager Don Mattingly enough talent to do so. It's now up to him to make sure that they are a "team" and don't become the latest example of a failed attempt to buy a championship.

Extension candidates
Clayton Kershaw, LHP (eligible for free agency after 2014): With most of the team's core already locked up to long-term deals, it's hard to see something not getting done with Kershaw, and an extension is likely at the very top of the organization's priority list. If Kershaw gets less than the $26.5 million per season that Greinke is getting, it's only because the Dodgers have some leverage because of the injury risk and the fact that pitchers can be dominant for years and then all of a sudden lose effectiveness during a particular season (see Tim Lincecum).

Kenley Jansen, RHP (2016): Keeping him out of the closer's role in favor of Brandon League will lower Jansen's save total -- and price -- when he enters his first year of arbitration next winter. But the 25-year-old converted catcher has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past two seasons, striking out 14.6 hitters per nine innings and holding opponents to a .146 batting average. The Dodgers won't be able to argue against those numbers in arbitration. They'll first want to make sure that his heart problems from the past year are behind him, but a pre-arbitration extension could make sense for both parties.
LAD payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $213M (1)
2014 $163M (5)
2015 $118M
2016 $115M
2017 $118M
*Source: Cot's Contracts

Weaknesses
The Dodgers would like to place an All-Star at every position. What team wouldn't? In this case, they do have the resources to make it happen. The problem with the team of All-Stars they've assembled thus far is that many are "former All-Stars."

Hanley Ramirez hasn't been an elite player since 2010, and has, in fact, been very average since. Gonzalez was an All-Star in 2011 and then had his worst OPS (.806) since he was a 23-year-old rookie with the Rangers in 2005. Crawford was an All-Star with Tampa Bay in 2010, then had one subpar year in Boston before missing most of 2012 because of injuries. Beckett was an All-Star in 2011, but wore out his welcome with the Red Sox, mostly by not pitching very well in 2012. Even Greinke hasn't been an All-Star since 2009, when he also won the AL Cy Young Award. It's not that these guys are so far removed from being considered some of the top players in the game. They just weren't that in 2012, and there's no guarantee that any of them will bounce back in 2013.

Potential free-agent targets
They did what they needed to do this offseason. Most lineup spots were already filled by players with guaranteed contracts, and there weren't really any players in this free-agent class who would've been a huge upgrade over third baseman Luis Cruz or catcher A.J. Ellis. So aside from acquiring utilityman Skip Schumaker, they stood pat with their offense. With Chad Billingsley's health a huge question mark -- he opted for platelet-rich plasma injections over Tommy John surgery -- it was essential that they added another starter to pair with Kershaw at the top of the rotation. They signed the best available option in Greinke while also adding Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu to a rotation that is now eight deep if Billingsley stays healthy.

Because of the team's bankroll, they'll be mentioned in many free-agent rumors over the next few years, but because they are locked in at almost every spot on the diamond, there are no obvious fits.

Trade bait
While they'll be smart to hold on to as much pitching depth as possible, the Dodgers will likely be able to trade Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang, two veterans coming off of solid seasons in 2012, before Opening Day. They also have some pretty good pitching prospects, including Zach Lee, Chris Reed, and Chris Withrow, in the upper minors they can use to go shopping in July.

Waiting in the wings
Spending a ton of money on their big league roster hasn't affected the farm system much because they don't really have many impact prospects ready to contribute in the near future. And with the organization's win-now mentality, it's more likely that a lot of their best prospects will be traded down the line in order to improve the major league team.

If Capuano and Harang leave as free agents after the season (both have mutual options for 2014), along with Ted Lilly, who will also be a free agent, then Lee, Reed, and Withrow could have an opportunity to get to the big leagues in 2014. That is, if they're not traded first.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Corey Seager, SS (2016); Joc Pederson, OF (2015); Yasiel Puig, OF (2015); Zach Lee, RHP (2014); Chris Withrow, RHP (2014); Chris Reed, LHP (2014)

Padres' window of contention.

San Diego Padres

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
The Padres went 42-32 in the second half of the 2012 season, but because they play in the same division as the defending champs and baseball's biggest spenders, no one is picking them to do much in the NL West next season.

Aside from re-signing starting pitcher Jason Marquis, they've done nothing to upgrade their roster. But why would a team that lost none of its players to free agency and played winning baseball over the last three months of the season need to do much? They are moving the fences in at Petco Park -- finally -- which should do wonders for a group of hitters constantly dealing with the loss of confidence that comes from crushing baseballs that don't even reach the warning track. If Chase Headley continues to play like Chipper Jones in his prime and Carlos Quentin can stay healthy, the Padres lineup can be very good. (They were fifth in the NL in runs scored in the second half.)

The rotation wasn't terrible, despite losing several pitchers to injury. Fifteen different pitchers made starts, including 22 from Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Suppan, and Kip Wells. And this is a team with one of the deepest farm systems in baseball. I won't go as far as saying they can win the division, but I think they have the potential to open some eyes this season and build some momentum heading into 2014. /p>

Extension candidates
Chase Headley, 3B (eligible for free agency after 2014): If the Padres would've acted earlier, they could've signed Headley to a contract extension that would've looked ridiculously team-friendly after what he did in 2012. The 28-year-old switch-hitter hit .308 with 23 homers and 73 runs batted in after the All-Star break, putting himself well out of the Padres' price range when he becomes a free agent two offseasons from now. All the Padres can do now is wait.

If Headley returns to his previous, slightly above-average self, maybe they can lock him up for an annual salary under $15 million. If he continues at the pace he left off with at the end of the 2012 season, they'll at least be able to get a huge return in a trade because they won't be able to afford him.
SD payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $31M (9)
2014 $31M (11)
2015 $20M
2016 $13M
2017 $1M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Luke Gregerson, RHP (2014): Top setup men are getting up to $6 million per season on the free-agent market, so the Padres are getting a bargain with the likely $7-8 million overall that Gregerson will make in arbitration over the next two years. With four consecutive solid seasons under his belt, the 28-year-old might be one of the rare relief pitchers who is worth the risk of a long-term deal.

Yasmani Grandal, C (2018): He'll miss the first 50 games of the 2013 season after failing a PED test, but his .863 OPS in 60 games last year suggests he's a keeper. The Padres gave Cameron Maybin a five-year, $25 million extension before he accumulated three years of service time, and it's easy to see Grandal getting a similar deal.

Weaknesses
Why is no one giving the Padres a chance in 2013? It's easy to understand when you look at the projected starting rotation. Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard will fill the top two spots with the veteran Marquis and journeyman Eric Stults likely the next two. Candidates for the last spot include Anthony Bass, Casey Kelly, and Tyson Ross.

The future looks much more promising with Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland expected to return from Tommy John surgery sometime in the second half and prospects Robbie Erlin and Donn Roach also close to helping out. Maybe even hard-throwing Andrew Cashner, who will start the season on the DL because of a lacerated thumb tendon, can help at some point if he can ever stay healthy. As it stands right now, it's hard to look at this current group and expect it to compete with the excellent rotations of the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Giants for an entire season.

Potential free-agent targets
Once Edwin Jackson signed a four-year, $52 million deal with the Cubs, the Padres had officially lost out on all of their free-agent targets of this offseason. If they want to compete on the free-agent market in the future against the likes of big-market clubs, they'll have to accept that the top free agents will usually get more money than they probably should.

Adding a No. 1 starter before the 2015 season can potentially do for the Padres what Kevin Brown did for the team when he was acquired before the 1998 season. Brown turned a very good team into a great team that won the NLCS. If they want to get an early start on acquiring impact veteran starters for their "optimal window of contention" year in 2015, they can pursue Josh Johnson or Adam Wainwright next offseason. Homer Bailey, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields could be free agent options for the following offseason. With less than $15 million (total) currently committed for 2016 and 2017 (see table), they should still have some room in the payroll to go after one big-name starter.

Trade bait
There aren't many impact third basemen around these days. If Headley was placed on the trade block, I imagine more than half the teams in baseball would have serious interest. Prospect Jedd Gyorko, who will get a chance to win the second base job this spring, would likely step in for Headley if he was traded. Shopping Headley at the trade deadline is an option if they fall out of the race, and, if they don't believe they can sign him to an extension, it's a near certainty he'll be dealt by Opening Day 2014.

Waiting in the wings
The current right field platoon of Chris Denorfia (.890 OPS vs LHP) and Will Venable (.779 OPS vs RHP) can get overlooked, but is actually quite productive when you combine their splits. But at some point over the next couple of years, the Padres will likely turn to just one five-tool player named Rymer Liriano to take on the full workload in right field. The 21-year-old will start the season with Double-A San Antonio. The farm system should also start to graduate some pretty good starting pitchers in 2013, although the best of the bunch, 18-year-old lefty Max Fried, might take a few years to arrive in San Diego.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Austin Hedges, C (2016); Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B (2013); Rymer Liriano, OF (2014); Casey Kelly, RHP (2013); Joe Ross, RHP (2016); Robbie Erlin, LHP (2014); Donn Roach, RHP (2014); Max Fried, LHP (2016)

Giants' window of contention.

San Francisco Giants

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
There's no reason to think the window has closed on the 2012 World Series champs. The entire core returns, including Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, who were all re-signed after the season. Despite losing closer Brian Wilson in April to Tommy John surgery and two-time NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum struggling throughout the regular season, the Giants persevered and won their second championship in three seasons.

NL MVP Buster Posey and rotation ace Matt Cain give the team stability, as does a veteran bullpen that has been consistently good over the past three years and a veteran manager, Bruce Bochy, who will reach 1,000 wins in 2013. The farm system, which is responsible for producing many of the team's current stars, has not been in great shape over the past couple of seasons, but GM Brian Sabean has done a good job upgrading his major league roster by trading some of the talent he does have in the minors. They'll have a lot of money coming off the books after this season, so they should be in a good position to fill potential holes in the rotation and outfield. For now, they're built to win and should be able to succeed in a tough NL West.

Extension candidates
Buster Posey, C (eligible for free agency after 2016): After bursting on to the scene in 2010, winning the NL Rookie of the Year and helping lead the Giants to their first World Series title in 56 years, Posey was lost early in the 2011 season with a devastating ankle injury. The team still won 86 games but missed the playoffs. The 25-year-old returned in 2012, won the NL MVP and led his team to another World Series victory. So don't blame him if he ends up asking for Joe Mauer money (eight years, $184 million), it's well-deserved.

SF payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $102M (6)
2014 $64M (6)
2015 $52M
2016 $41M
2017 $31M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Pablo Sandoval, 3B (2014): Sandoval had his three arbitration years bought out prior to last offseason for just $17.15 million. Considering he was the World Series MVP, that deal looks very team-friendly now. The 26-year-old stands to make much more when he becomes a free agent after the 2014 season. Another extension is a possibility, although the Giants might want to wait as long as possible to make sure he stays in shape.

Tim Lincecum, RHP (2013): The Freak was not remotely close to being the same pitcher in 2012 that he was in his previous four seasons in which he won two NL Cy Young awards and was an All-Star every year. I'm sure the Giants want to see how he looks early on in the 2013 season before offering him a ton of money, but it's also very likely that Lincecum wants to regain his value with a strong season and won't give the Giants any discounts based on his rough 2012.

Weaknesses
What if the Giants get the 2012 version of Lincecum once again? What if they get the 2007-2011 version of Barry Zito and not the one who was actually pretty good last season? Sure, Cain and Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong are studs, but when Boof Bonser and Yusmeiro Petit are your starting pitching depth, you're in trouble if health or ineffectiveness become issues. The bottom of the lineup could also become a concern. They're solid in the top six spots, but Brandon Crawford and the platoon of Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres has the potential to be a black hole at the bottom third of the order. Regardless of the plus defense each would provide, the lack of offensive production will become a problem that needs to be addressed if they fall back in the division.

Potential free-agent targets
Unless they come out of nowhere to sign Michael Bourn, the lone remaining free agent who can make a significant impact on a lineup, the 2013 Giants are set and ready to defend their title. Next offseason, however, they could be looking to replace Lincecum and Zito in the rotation, right fielder Hunter Pence, and possibly looking to find another outfielder if prospect Gary Brown isn't ready for the majors. Pence, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, and Nelson Cruz will be among the top free agent outfielders after the season.

Trade bait
If by some crazy chance, the Giants fall out of playoff contention in July, they'll have some interesting free agents-to-be that they can shop, including Lincecum and Pence. But let's get serious: The more likely scenario has them in a heated division battle and needing one more bat in the lineup. A left fielder would likely be the target. Pitching prospects Clayton Blackburn and Kyle Crick, who both dominated in low Class A last season, could be decent trade chips along with Brown and Joe Panik, a left-handed hitting shortstop/second baseman who had a .770 OPS in high Class A.

Waiting in the wings
Brown appeared to be on the fast track after he was the 24th player taken in the 2010 draft and then put up huge numbers (.925 OPS, 53 steals) for high Class A San Jose in his first full season in 2011. His expected ETA has slowed, however, after he left the hitter-friendly California League and put up just so-so numbers with Double-A Richmond last season (.731 OPS). The Giants still feel the 24 year-old is on track to reach the majors in the near future as their leadoff man and center fielder, which could result in Pagan moving over to right field in 2014.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Andrew Susac, C (2015); Joe Panik, SS/2B (2015); Gary Brown, CF (2014); Clayton Blackburn, RHP (2015); Kyle Crick, RHP (2015); Chris Heston, RHP (2014); Chris Stratton, RHP (2015)
 
Orioles' window of contention.

Baltimore Orioles

Optimal year of contention: 2014

Overview
With the Yankees getting older and unable to spend as freely as they've done in the past and the Red Sox trying to rebound from a disastrous season, the O's are a team on the rise. They came out of nowhere last season, winning the wild-card game against the Rangers before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS.

A quiet offseason from general manager Dan Duquette means they'll be relying on the improvement of their young players, such as 20-year-old third baseman Manny Machado, in order to stay competitive in the AL East. A healthy Nick Markakis, who missed the final six weeks with a fractured hamate bone, will also help a lineup led by superstar center fielder Adam Jones, All-Star catcher Matt Wieters, and first baseman Chris Davis, who slugged 33 homers in his first season as a big league regular. Any kind of production from injury-prone second baseman Brian Roberts in the last year of a four-year, $40 million contract will be a bonus. The 35-year-old has played in just 115 games over the past three seasons after posting an .807 OPS with 56 doubles and 30 stolen bases in 2009.

Last year's signing of Wei-Yin Chen and acquisition of Jason Hammel stabilized the front of the rotation, while 24-year-old Chris Tillman finally showed why he was such a highly touted prospect a few years back. Ace-in-waiting Dylan Bundy, could arrive at some point in 2013, while 2012 first-round draft pick Kevin Gausman could join him in the rotation by 2014. Hammel is the only key component of the current roster who is unsigned beyond 2013, so the O's are in pretty good shape going forward and could really take a big step forward in 2014 once Bundy and Machado have some more service time under their belts.

Extension candidates
Matt Wieters, C (eligible for free agency after 2016): The O's signed Adam Jones to a contract extension last May, buying out his last year of arbitration and five additional seasons at an average of $14.25 million per season. Getting Wieters locked up to a deal similar in length could be next on the agenda, although the O's would be buying out three years of arbitration if it gets done soon.

BAL payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $58M (6)
2014 $39M (12)
2015 $15M
2016 $16M
2017 $16M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Chris Davis, 1B/OF (2015): After failing to nail down a regular job in Texas early in his career, Davis answered questions on whether he was nothing more than a 4A player -- great in AAA, not good enough for the majors -- by posting an .827 OPS in 139 games while playing first base and both corner outfield spots. Great timing for the 26-year-old, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. Left-handed power hitters usually get paid very well.

Jason Hammel, RHP (2013): Hammel was the best pitcher on the staff when a knee injury in mid-July cost him two months of the season. The 30-year-old, who is by far the most experienced pitcher in the rotation, returned with two solid starts in September and two more in the playoffs against the Yankees. A three-year, $27 million contract extension could be enough to keep the veteran in Baltimore if the team can get him to agree before he hits the open market.

Jim Johnson, RHP (2014): After setting the franchise record for saves in a season with 51, Johnson has put himself in a position to make big money in arbitration over the next two seasons before hitting the open market as a 31-year-old after the 2014 season. His value will probably never be higher, so the O's can be patient and wait it out another season before determining what Johnson would be worth.

Weaknesses
Tillman's 2.93 ERA in 15 big league starts was encouraging, but he still hasn't been a successful big league pitcher over a full season. Neither have rotation candidates Zach Britton, Miguel Gonzalez and Jake Arrieta. They'll need some consistency after Hammel and Chen or things have the potential to get ugly. There's a reason Duquette is still looking at veteran free agents, such as Joe Saunders, to fill a rotation spot. There might be too much uncertainty in the rotation to think they'll outplay the other four teams in the division for 162 games.

Potential free-agent targets
Signing Hammel to a contract extension would help, but adding another top-of-the-rotation starter prior to the 2014 season could catapult the O's to World Series contenders. We know the lineup is good and the bullpen is deep and talented. But would a rotation of Bundy, Hammel, Chen, Tillman and Britton be good enough to win the AL East and another 11 playoff games? Maybe. How about a veteran such as Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson leading the rotation? Or maybe they go all out and take a chance on Tim Lincecum. Would they be good enough then? Very likely.

Not only do they have a need for another starting pitcher, they could also use one more bat in the lineup before they take the step to the next level. Unless Nolan Reimold stays healthy and has a breakout season, left field could be a spot the team is looking to fill heading into 2014. Martin Prado could be a target if they want someone to fill the leadoff spot in the order. David Murphy or Nelson Cruz could also fit nicely in the middle of the order. They'd feel right at home with several former Rangers already on the club.

Trade bait
Former prospects Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz have fallen way down on the starting pitching depth chart, making them more likely to be contribute out of the Orioles' bullpen than the rotation. That doesn't mean they won't pitch in some other team's rotation. Both are still young enough where several teams would still value them as starters with upside.

Waiting in the wings
Bundy and Gausman have the potential to be a dominant one-two punch at the front of the O's rotation. The fourth pick in the 2012 draft, Gausman will likely start in high Class A Frederick and could end up in Baltimore late in the season if he proves he's ready. Another prospect who could end up in Baltimore by year's end is Jonathan Schoop, a 21-year-old who has played mostly shortstop but appears to have settled in at second base. If Roberts can't stay on the field and Schoop continues to show improvement with the bat in the upper minors, the O's could repeat what they did with Machado and call him up by early August.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Nick Delmonico, 1B/2B (2015); Jonathan Schoop, 2B (2014); Jason Esposito, 3B (2014); Dylan Bundy, RHP (2013); Kevin Gausman, RHP (2014)

Red Sox's window of contention.

Boston Red Sox

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
After ridding themselves of long-term commitments to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, and the last two years of Josh Beckett's deal, the Sox have reinvested this offseason in shorter-term deals for players who they feel bring strong leadership and clubhouse chemistry. The team now has the payroll flexibility in the future and at least a chance to be competitive right away. With so many new faces on the 25-man roster, though, it's hard to know what kind of team the Red Sox will be.

If their starting pitching holds together and they get contributions from John Lackey, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, they'll have a shot in the AL East. If not, they'll struggle to get back to .500 after a 93-loss season in 2012. Spending wisely over the next couple of offseasons, however, could have the Red Sox back on top as a perennial contender in no time.

Extension candidates
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (eligible for free agency after 2014): If there's any player who should be a Red Sox for life, it's Pedroia. The 29-year-old is entering his eighth season with the club, and has an $11 million club option in 2015, which is likely to be picked up. An extension that would keep the 29-year-old in Boston for an additional four years beyond that could work if they're willing to pay at least $13 million per season.

BOS payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $109M (9)
2014 $79M (6)
2015 $25M
2016 $25K
2017 $0
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Will Middlebrooks, 3B (2018): Based on his first 75 games in the big leagues (15 homers), Middlebrooks figures to be hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for at least the next six seasons. Pedroia received a six-year extension after his first year of arbitration, and the 24-year-old Middlebrooks could get one sooner.

Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (2013): The Sox can afford Ellsbury long-term, the question is whether they'll pay him based on his MVP-caliber season of 2011 even though he missed much of 2012 and then wasn't close to the same player when he finally returned to the field. Because Ellsbury is a Scott Boras client, hey'll have to wait until after the season when they'll have to outbid several teams interested in the 29-year-old.

Weaknesses
Roughly one-third of the 25-man roster will be made up of players who were acquired this offseason, leaving very little time to gel in a division where they probably can't afford to lose too much ground early on. They also have a lot of players hoping to bounce back from mediocre seasons and/or injury, including lineup regulars Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, and Shane Victorino, starting pitchers Lackey and Jon Lester, and relievers Andrew Bailey and Daniel Bard. Relying on so many players to turn things around usually doesn't bode well for a team hoping to contend in a tough division.

Potential free-agent targets
With Lester failing to pitch like an ace in 2012, the Sox could be looking for someone to lead their rotation in the coming years as they look to return to the postseason. After Zack Greinke went off the board this offseason, there was no other clear-cut free agent who could be that guy. So they'll wait for at least another year, when Josh Johnson and Tim Lincecum would be the top free agent starters available if they can return to form in 2013. Felix Hernandez will be a free agent the following offseason. If the Red Sox are willing to make him the highest-paid pitcher of all time -- they do have the payroll flexibility and budget to make it happen -- then they'll definitely have a shot at landing him.

Trade bait
Ellsbury would be the big name on the trade block if the Sox fall out of the race and fail to sign him to an extension. They'd have the option of moving Victorino over to center field or handing the job to prospect Jackie Bradley Jr., who had a .911 OPS between Double-A and high Class A in his first full pro season. Drew could also be traded to clear a spot for defensive whiz Jose Iglesias, who could get a late-season audition at shortstop. If the Sox are making a run at a playoff spot, then prospects like Bradley and Iglesias could be used to acquire veteran talent for the stretch run.

Waiting in the wings
The 19th pick in the 2011 draft, Matt Barnes debuted in 2012 with five dominant starts for low Class A Greenville before moving on to high-A Salem, where he posted solid numbers in 20 starts. He could move quickly, although the 22 year-old is likely to spend the entire 2013 season in the upper minors before possibly reaching Boston early in 2014. Allen Webster, who was acquired in the big trade with the Dodgers, doesn't have quite the upside, but he shouldn't be too far behind Barnes. The best prospect in the system is Xander Bogaerts, a shortstop who can hit and hit for power, but might not stick at shortstop long-term. He finished the season in Double-A while still 19 years old and posted a .948 OPS in 23 games.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Blake Swihart, C (2015); Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B (2014); Jose Iglesias, SS (2014); Jackie Bradley, Jr., OF (2014); Matt Barnes, RHP (2014); Allen Webster, RHP (2014)

Yankees' window of contention.

New York Yankees

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
The Yankees may not have picked the ideal time to try to get below the $189 million luxury tax threshold for the 2014 season. They went into the offseason with several holes to fill, no help on the horizon from down on the farm and an inability to offer long-term deals to free agents or acquire players with guaranteed contracts beyond 2013.

With three players -- Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira -- taking up approximately $70 million of the payroll from 2013-16, they'll have about $120 million to fill out the other 22 spots on their roster beginning in 2014. For about 60 percent of the teams in baseball, they're probably thinking that's a problem they'd love to have. But that's not how the Yankees have operated in the recent past. It's a new era in the Bronx. I wouldn't write them off in 2013, though. They had the best regular-season record in the American League last season and were able to bring back a majority of their veteran free agents on one-year deals. Closer Mariano Rivera also returns after missing most of the 2012 season with a torn ACL. And while I wouldn't be surprised if the 43-year-old is still the best closer in baseball, the aging group of veterans filling out the remainder of the roster has to be a bit concerning.

Extension candidates
Robinson Cano, 2B (eligible for free agency after 2013): The Yankees do have room to sign a few players to long-term deals -- they just have to be very confident that the player will be productive throughout the majority of the deal. Cano has consistently been one of the best second basemen in baseball over his eight-year career, rarely misses a game and doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon at age 30. Six years and $132 million seems fair, but I have a feeling the new West Coast version of the Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers, won't mind paying Cano until he's 39 or 40 years old at even more money per season. If the Yankees allow him to reach free agency, it's hard to see him coming back.

NYY payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $187M (5)
2014 $80M (7)
2015 $66M
2016 $67M
2017 $25M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
David Robertson, RHP (2014): If Rivera retires after the season, Robertson has a shot to be the closer in his last year before reaching free agency. A successful year with 30-plus saves would boost his price tag significantly. Signing him to an extension now while he's still a setup man, albeit one of the best setup men in the game, could save the team a lot of money.

Weaknesses
They are an aging team that doesn't have the depth in the upper minors to deal with a rash of injuries that isn't uncommon in baseball. The catching tandem of Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart will be fine defensively, but they won't hit much more than a pitcher would out of the ninth spot. Derek Jeter, 38, is recovering from ankle surgery and may not be the same player. Alex Rodriguez, 37, will miss at least two months recovering from hip surgery, and Ichiro Suzuki, 39, was rejuvenated after coming over in a midseason trade with Seattle, but he's not the same player he was three years ago.

New third baseman Kevin Youkilis, who will be 34 on Opening Day, has averaged just 115 games per season since 2010, and Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte will be 38 and 40 years old, respectively, at the start of the season. Bottom line: This team is old and is very weak behind the plate.

Potential free-agent targets
No longer at the top of the free-agent food chain once the offseason starts, the Yankees will have to be patient and possibly suffer through a couple of .500 seasons, wait for their best prospects to arrive and then make a key acquisition or two to push them back into contention. They'll transition with a veteran group that should at least be competitive as they try to get younger and trim their payroll over the next couple of years.

Finding eventual replacements for Jeter and Rodriguez on the left side of the infield will be a challenge, considering there aren't that many great shortstops and third basemen in the game right now. The potential free-agent class following the 2014 season has some talent, though. Chase Headley and Pablo Sandoval would look good in pinstripes as A-Rod transitions into full-time DH duty, while Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, J.J. Hardy and Jed Lowrie would be solid pickups in the post-Jeter era.

Trade bait
On a roster full of free agents-to-be, GM Brian Cashman could have his busiest July ever if his team falls out of contention. On the other hand, he could be trying to upgrade his roster with other teams' free agents-to-be if the Yankees happen to be in the mix for a playoff spot. Cano and Curtis Granderson would net the team its biggest return of prospects. If fortunes were reversed, the Yankees have very good outfield depth in the lower minors, with center field prospects Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams likely to draw the most interest.

Waiting in the wings
By avoiding long-term deals over the next couple offseasons, the Yankees could have an entire homegrown group of young and inexpensive outfielders by 2015. Heathcott should arrive first, possibly as early as late 2013, while Austin and Williams could arrive at some point in 2015. All three are highly regarded prospects expected to be future big league regulars. Top catching prospect Gary Sanchez could also be in the mix, giving the Yankees four pre-arbitration players in their lineup to go along with Teixeira at first base, A-Rod as the designated hitter and TBD in the other infield spots. If you're looking for a young player who can make an impact sooner, look no further than reliever Mark Montgomery, who posted a 1.69 ERA with 118 strikeouts and 27 walks in 74 1/3 innings between high Class A, Double-A and the Arizona Fall League in 2012.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Gary Sanchez, C (2015); Tyler Austin, OF (2015); Slade Heathcott, OF (2014); Mason Williams, CF (2015); Mark Montgomery, RHP (2013); LHP Manny Bañuelos (2014)

Rays' window of contention.

Tampa Bay Rays

Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
Most people have learned by now that you should never overlook the Rays, no matter how many question marks they have throughout their 25-man roster. The success of their bullpen over the past two seasons has been mind-boggling. If they can somehow score enough runs to compete in the AL East in 2013 with a less-than-impressive projected lineup, it might be even more mind-boggling. And now that they've traded James Shields, one of the most reliable pitchers in the game, it's hard to see how their rotation can be as good as it has been over the years.

The package of prospects they received from Kansas City in the Shields trade puts them in much better shape in 2014 and beyond, though. At some point, they needed to make a deal and replenish their farm system. In doing so, they might be taking a step or two back in order to take several steps forward in the future. If Yunel Escobar and James Loney have big years and another young starting pitcher, such as Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi, has a breakout season, and Roberto Hernandez turns out to be a much better reliever than he was a starter, then they'll probably be very good again. And we shouldn't be surprised.

Extension candidates
David Price, LHP (eligible for free agency after 2015): The 27-year-old, fresh off of winning his first AL Cy Young Award, deserves to be among the highest-paid pitchers in baseball. He got a little over $10 million for 2013, avoiding arbitration, and he'll get substantial raises over the next two seasons. The Rays have almost no payroll commitments beyond 2013, so they could probably fit him into their tight budget, although it's more likely he hits the market.

TB payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $40M (5)
2014 $14M (9)
2015 $14M
2016 $16M
2017 $15M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Desmond Jennings, CF (2017): His 2012 season was a bit of a disappointment, but the fact that he's a center fielder who'll steal 30-plus bases and hit 15-plus home runs per season means he will be costly once he reaches arbitration after the 2014 season. If the Rays believe in his talent and his ability to come close to his potential, then a pre-arbitration contract extension make a lot of sense.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (2016): With Shields out of the picture, Hellickson steps into the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Price. The 25-year-old will never have huge strikeout numbers, which keeps his price tag down some and makes it more likely the Rays can afford him long-term. The pre-arbitration deal that the Red Sox did with Clay Buchholz after the 2010 season -- five years, $30.5 million, plus $26.5 million in club options between 2016 and '17 -- could be a good comp as to what Hellickson would be worth right now.

Weaknesses
The good news is that the offseason isn't over and there are still a handful of free agents who can help upgrade this 25-man roster. The bad news is that things could get ugly if the Rays fail to add any more pieces and guys like Escobar, Loney and Ryan Roberts don't improve significantly at the plate from last year. Wil Myers, Tampa's right fielder of the very near future and one of the top power-hitting prospects in the game, will likely start the season in the minors due to service time issues, but should be in the Rays' lineup by mid-May, and he will almost certainly be an immediate upgrade.

Potential free-agent targets
I won't pretend to know who the next Fernando Rodney or Jeff Keppinger is going to be, but these are the types of free agents the Rays will sign to fill out potential holes at catcher, first base and the bullpen. The "optimal window of contention" year of 2015 for the Rays relies heavily on the farm system as well as improvement from Jennings, Matt Joyce and Myers in the outfield, and from starting pitchers Archer, Hellickson, Odorizzi and Matt Moore. It's also Price's last year before free agency so it's hard to argue that the window opens any further if he departs. Finding complementary pieces to surround the core of talent is the key and something GM Andrew Friedman has been good at during his tenure.

Trade bait
It took the Rays years to finally give in and trade one of their many impressive starting pitchers in order to fill other holes on their roster. Was the Shields trade the start of a new era where the Rays are willing to deal from areas of strength in order to fill needs and/or restock their farm system? I seriously doubt it, but a bounce-back year from Escobar at shortstop could boost his trade value with Hak-Ju Lee likely to take over in 2014, anyway. Falling out of the playoff race would likely result in the team shopping Rodney to a contender.

Waiting in the wings
Royals fans were calling for Myers as early as June of last season as he blasted homer after homer between Double-A and Triple-A while Jeff Francoeur slumped in the majors. Now it's Rays fans who will be waiting out Myers' arrival, although it's not expected to be a very long wait. A mid-May lineup that includes Jennings, Escobar, Ben Zobrist, Longoria, Joyce and Myers should be able to score enough runs to keep this team competitive throughout the remainder of the season.

The next wave of pitching prospects is also ready to land in Tampa with Archer and Odorizzi leading the way. Both will compete for a rotation spot in spring training but could start the season in Triple-A in favor of Alex Cobb, who has done a solid job in the big leagues and should be a very good No. 5 starter for several years. The aforementioned duo, however, has at least midrotation upside and could surpass Cobb a month or two into the season.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Hak-Ju Lee, SS (2014); Mikie Mahtook, OF (2014); Wil Myers, OF (2013); Chris Archer, RHP (2013); Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (2016); Jake Odorizzi, RHP (2013); Blake Snell, LHP (2016)

Blue Jays' window of contention.

Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
Expectations were high for the Blue Jays heading into 2012, and then they went out and finished 22 games out of first place with 89 losses. After an exciting offseason that brought the Jays one of the best shortstops in the game (Jose Reyes) and three excellent starters (R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle), expectations are now through the roof in Toronto.

The decline of the Red Sox and the expected drop-offs from the Rays and Yankees are also part of the reason the Jays are the favorites in the AL East, but there are plenty of questions still to be answered from a 25-man roster that could have as many as 10 new faces on Opening Day.

On paper, they look like the team to beat for the next three seasons. In reality, these "dream teams" assembled in a short period of time don't always work out on the field. Just ask the Miami Marlins. But this was a talented group of players before this offseason, who just happened to struggle in 2012 without their best hitter, Jose Bautista, in the lineup for much of the season and with their "ace", Ricky Romero, struggling mightily a year after he was one of the best in the league. To show you how far they've come in one offseason, though, Romero is now penciled into the fifth spot in the rotation and rising star Brandon Morrow is the No. 1 starter. That's some serious pitching depth.

Extension candidates
Brett Lawrie, 3B (eligible for free agency after 2017): He didn't quite live up to the hype in his first full big league season, but he did post a .729 OPS as a 22-year-old while proving to be a very capable defender at the hot corner. Extending Lawrie to a team-friendly deal before he reaches arbitration might be a good idea considering he does have the 30-homer and 30-stolen base potential that would send his price skyrocketing during arbitration years if he actually reaches those numbers.

TOR payroll outlook

An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $110M (3)
2014 $102M (8)
2015 $90M
2016 $27M
2017 $22M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Josh Johnson, RHP (2013): The former Marlins' ace wasn't quite all the way back to his former dominant self in 2012, but he did manage to stay healthy and make 31 starts and pitch 191 1/3 innings after missing much of 2011 with a shoulder injury. If the 28-year-old remains pain-free and he's back to pitching like an ace early in the season, the Jays might not want to let him reach free agency following the season. They'll have a nice head start over the other 29 teams that are certain to have interest in such a scenario.

J.P. Arencibia, C (2016): Now that the top catching prospect in baseball, Travis d'Arnaud, has been traded to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal, Arencibia appears to have a long-term future in Toronto. The 27-year-old is responsible for working with what looks to be one of the more talented pitching staffs in baseball, while continuing to be a home run threat on offense -- he has 41 long balls over his first two full seasons. I think he can do slightly better than the three-year deals signed by Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley a few years back; both received between $8-9 million with club options for a fourth year, but he'll need to get that OBP up above .300.

Weaknesses
Much of the focus has been on the new lineup and the new rotation, both of which look excellent on paper, but the bullpen is also a very important component to a winning club. Steve Delabar and Brad Lincoln are unproven in the late innings, and closer Sergio Santos is coming off of shoulder surgery. So although the group appears capable, and should be deep enough to deal with a few injuries here or there, this is not a group that strikes fear into opponents late in the game -- At least not yet.

Potential free-agent targets
There are still plenty of relievers available with late-inning experience, including Matt Capps, Kyle Farnsworth, Brandon Lyon, Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Wilson, among others. I'd be surprised if one of them didn't end up with Toronto before the start of spring training. Aside from that, the Jays are ready to go to work.

Trade bait
It's hard to envision the team falling out of the playoff race in 2013. If it does, you can bet that Johnson, the team's lone free agent-to-be, will be shopped, while super-utilityman Emilio Bonifacio and Colby Rasmus could also be put on the block. (Both are under team control through 2014). More likely, the Jays will be looking to add at the trade deadline, unless things are going so great they can afford to just stand pat. If designated hitter Adam Lind slumps again, as he did early in 2012, the Jays could pursue another bat. My guess is they look to add a reliever to solidify a bullpen that's decent, but not dominant.

Waiting in the wings
The Jays traded a lot of really good prospects from the farm this offseason to acquire Reyes, Dickey, Johnson and Buehrle, but they still have some talented arms in the low minors, and Aaron Sanchez is the best of the bunch. The 20-year-old has a very good chance to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter. It might take another three years before he reaches Toronto, though. Lefties Daniel Norris and Sean Nolin should move quicker, but profile more as back-of-the-rotation starters.

Marcus Stroman, the team's first-rounder in 2012, has the ability to move very fast and make an impact out of the Jays' bullpen some time during the second half of the season. If this is the case, it might have the same effect as acquiring a power arm at the trade deadline. However, Stroman will miss the first 50 games of 2013 after testing positive for a banned stimulant, so that is working against him.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): A.J. Jimenez, C (2014); D.J. Davis, OF (2016); Aaron Sanchez, RHP (2015); Marcus Stroman, RHP (2013); Sean Nolin, LHP (2014); Daniel Norris, LHP (2015)
 
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