2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Forgot about Bautista.  I'm a big Tulo fan but he's been a little too streaky for me this year.  After that Mets series, he's cooled off a lot.

Spoiler [+]
ST. LOUIS -- Ron Washington spoke the truth the other day when he mentioned that the Rangers don't have an established closer, now that Neftali Feliz has landed on the disabled list. But that doesn't mean he can't find a solution. Washington and Tony La Russa and Charlie Manuel -- managers of first-place teams that are coping with bullpen problems -- have all been around long enough to know that bullpens can be volatile, with heroes emerging unexpectedly.

mlb_a_tlmmts_300.jpg

Getty ImagesTony La Russa has been forced to maneuver.

A week ago, flares were going up out of St. Louis because of the disastrous start for closer Ryan Franklin, and the veteran was deposed, after blowing four saves in five chances. But by Sunday, as La Russa chatted in his office, another bullpen layer had already formed where Franklin had been. "We've got some good young arms," La Russa said.

A few hours later, La Russa started rolling those arms out of the bullpen after Jake Westbrook threw six strong innings. Fernando Salas threw in the mid-90s and struck out two in the seventh, and then Eduardo Sanchez followed in the eighth, needing just 10 pitches to strike out two in a scoreless inning, and then came Mitchell Boggs. So far, La Russa has not attached the word "closer" to Boggs, because he doesn't want to add that pressure, but everybody from Boggs to Franklin to the Reds know that Boggs is the closer. And in the top of the ninth, Boggs fired mid-90s fastballs through the rain and struck out two.

To review: The Cardinals' bullpen combined for three scoreless innings on Sunday, with six strikeouts, and while there will be the inevitable adjustments from opposing hitters and countermoves and slumps, it appears as if La Russa will have some nice relief weapons at his disposal.

Manuel will be looking for solutions, too; he is without Brad Lidge for a couple of months, and now he's without his Plan B, Jose Contreras, who was placed on the disabled list with an elbow strain. With Contreras unavailable Sunday, Roy Halladay threw 130 pitches and teed up Antonio Bastardo nicely; Bastardo came in for a one-out save, but he's demonstrated that he's capable of more, having dominated hitters early this year, with 14 strikeouts in nine innings. Some other Bastardo numbers from his nine innings this season:

Opponents' on-base percentage: .206
Opponents' slugging percentage .100
Pitches per inning: Just 14.3

The Rangers' closer situation is murkier, because the loss of Feliz comes at a time when Texas already was dealing with depth issues in the seventh and eighth inning, especially among their right-handers. Arthur Rhodes got the save on Sunday, following Brett Tomko out of the bullpen, and they are Band-Aids in those roles. In time, it figures that Texas will have other choices. Remember, in 2009 the Rangers claimed Darren O'Day on waivers early in the season and brought Feliz up in August, and last year Alexi Ogando was called up in June and played a major role as the Rangers advanced to the World Series for the first time.

The Rangers' disabled list in Triple-A and the majors now includes the following pitchers: Feliz, Tommy Hunter, Brandon Webb, Scott Feldman, Tanner Scheppers, Omar Beltre, Mason Tobin and Eric Hurley, and they're hoping for more from Mark Lowe and Michael Kirkman, who have struggled early. Eventually, Texas can pry solutions out of that depth, as pitchers come back.

The Rangers could, in theory, try to plug a bullpen hole by moving Ogando back to the bullpen, but to do so, they would have to pull him out of the rotation, which has been a strength.

Players talk all the time about grinding it, which is a euphemism for finding a way. For the contenders with early-season bullpen issues, it's all about grinding.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Yadier Molina made a statement with his game-winning homer, pointing and waving. Albert Pujols left Sunday night's game with hamstring tightness, but he thinks it'll be OK.

• Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan was not drafted, and through his first years he saw other drafted catchers in the Cincinnati organization get a shot to advance before him. But Hanigan hung in there, and when he first reached the Reds' spring training camp, he immediately separated himself from others in the group with aptitude and his retention of signs. Baker would give a group of players a set of signs and then test them, and Hanigan's hand would shoot up, like a kid in a class room, and Baker called on him -- initially. Because after a while, Baker understood that Hanigan always correctly deciphered signs, and the manager wanted, for the purpose of the exercise, to have somebody else in the room chime in. "I'd look at everyone but him," Baker said Sunday, chuckling.

In one of the first conversations that Hanigan had with Baker, the catcher took a moment to make a case for himself, mentioning that he was the only member of the Reds organization to have more walks than strikeouts."I know," Baker responded, nodding. He really didn't know, but after Hanigan left, Baker looked it up and sure enough, Hanigan's walk-strikeout ratios were excellent -- and they've continued to be.

If you talk with Hanigan for just a few minutes, and you walk away thinking: "That guy is going to be a manager someday."

• Andre Ethier's hitting streak has reached 21 games, and the Dodgers won the final game of the series.

• You can't stop the Mets and David Wright, you can only hope to contain them; they swept Arizona, as Dave Caldwell writes. From ESPN Stats & Information: "Wright hit two home runs Sunday, and both came with two strikes. It was the first game with two home runs with two strikes for Wright in almost five years (April 28, 2006). All three of Wright's home runs with two strikes have come in the last four days. Wright did not his third two-strike home run last year until August 17."

Here are the guys with the most multi-HR games in MLB history:

Darryl Strawberry: 22
Mike Piazza: 17
David Wright: 16
Carlos Beltran: 16
Dave Kingman: 16
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
Mike Scioscia pulled a couple of his struggling outfielders in the midst of Sunday's game. [h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Evan Longoria got back into a batting cage, and is making progress in his rehab, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. The Reds are hoping to get Scott Rolen back as soon as possible, but I got the distinct feeling the team really has no idea how Rolen will rebound from his shoulder issue.

3. The Brewers are not going to rush back Zack Greinke. Greinke struggled with his command on Sunday.

4. Carlos Carrasco left Sunday's start with a sore elbow.

5. Willie Bloomquist is hoping to be back in action this week.

6. Justin Smoak was activated.

7. Jonathan Sanchez pitched through illness.

8. Even at a time when Aaron Hill went on the disabled list for the Jays, Brett Lawrie won't be rushed, writes Bill Lankhof.

We do a "Good, Bad and Ugly" every Monday on Mike and Mike. This week's version...

The Good: The Red Sox, who are who we thought they were. Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka have been throwing great and Boston has rolled through a West Coast road trip. They've won five straight and eight of nine, and now the Red Sox, from Carl Crawford to Kevin Youkilis to Jed Lowrie, are starting to hit. (From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information: "In Boston's 2-10 start, the Red Sox compiled a 6.79 ERA and allowed 21 homers. But during their run of eight wins in nine games, they have a 1.65 ERA, allowed just three homers and posted a .186 opponents' batting average. Over the last four starts for Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, they've combined for 30 innings, eight hits and three runs allowed." And on Sunday, John Lackey was excellent, as John Tomase writes. He pitched with a chip on his shoulder, writes Tim Britton.)

The Bad: The bullpen situations in Texas and Philadelphia. The Rangers lost closer Neftali Feliz because of a sore shoulder, and the Phillies -- who already have had to win without Brad Lidge -- just lost Lidge's replacement, Jose Contreras, because of a strained elbow. This means two of baseball's frontrunners will be scrambling for internal solutions, and that we'll be hearing more about the guy with the best name for a short reliever with nasty stuff -- the Phillies' Antonio Bastardo.

The Ugly: The White Sox, who have just stopped hitting. Ten losses in 11 games, a team on-base percentage of .308, and Adam Dunn is hitting .145. Baseball seismologists will be monitoring the explosive Mt. Ozzie as the White Sox go into Yankee Stadium today for four games.

The White Sox are off to their worst start in a decade.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Carl Crawford mashed his first homer, as John Lackey and the Red Sox rolled. You can see him starting to relax more in his at-bats; the anxiety that overpowered his at-bats has been steadily regressing.
2. The Padres' offensive numbers are frightening, and Roy Halladay made them look even worse, as Tim Sullivan writes.

3. From Daniel Braunstein of ESPN Stats & Information, how Halladay dominated:

A) Six of Halladay's strikeouts were called, his highest total since his perfect game last season. Sunday marked Halladay's first start with Mike DiMuro as home plate umpire since the perfect game. By PitchF/X standards, three of the called strikeouts Sunday were on pitches out of the zone, compared with five in the perfect game. All eight called strikeouts on pitches out of the zone in the two starts are on the right side of the plate from Halladay's perspective (inside to right-handed batters, outside to left-handed batters). Halladay's three called strikeouts Sunday on pitches out of the zone ties his second most in a start over the last three seasons, trailing only last year's perfect game. In that game, on May 29, 2010, he had 5. And in his last three starts with Mike DiMuro as home plate umpire, Halladay has pitched 26 2/3 innings and allowed one run. The three wins include a 3-hitter against the Red Sox, a perfect game against the Marlins, and a 14-strikeout effort that was one out shy of a complete game against the Padres. Halladay has pitched four complete games in 7 starts with Mike DiMuro as home plate ump, along with Sunday's game, in which he went 8 2/3 IP.
B) Halladay threw 25 changeups, his second-highest total and percentage of total pitches since 2009. Twenty-two of Halladay's changeups (88.0 percent) went for strikes, his highest strike percentage with his changeup since 2009 in a start in which he threw more than 10.
C) Eighteen of his 25 changeups (72.0 percent) were in the strike zone, his highest percentage and total in a start with more than three changeups over the last three seasons. Of the seven he didn't throw in the strike zone, the Padres swung at five. Overall the Padres swung at 16 changeups. They missed seven, fouled off five, and put four in play, all on the ground.

4. Max Scherzer dominated the White Sox, with precision. A couple of Tigers hitters are turning heads, writes Drew Sharp.

5. Jason Kubel has stopped trying to beat Target Field, and got a big hit Sunday, as La Velle Neal writes.

6. Ubaldo Jimenez threw a whole lot of pitches in a short outing -- but he was good in the first four innings, as Jim Armstrong writes.

7. The Mariners are in a constant struggle for runs, writes Ryan Divish.

8. Brett Anderson was The Man for Oakland.

9. Mike Stanton got a huge hit.

10. Randy Wolf was in complete command.

11. The Giants' bullpen hit a pothole.

12. Ricky Romero made one costly mistake.

13. James Shields was The Man for the Rays, throwing his second straight complete game. The Rays are into giant bear hugs these days, as Marc Topkin writes:
  • The ritual started in Boston a couple of weeks ago, and they'd kept it pretty much within the clubhouse. But Sunday was worthy of going public.
    James Shields had just finished off a stunning second straight complete game victory in the Rays' 2-0 win over the Blue Jays, and when David Price ran out on the field Shields greeted him with the now obligatory full-bore, full bear hug.

    "It was a good one; he picked me up off the ground today," Price said. "I don't care. When you throw a complete game shutout, you can do whatever you want out there."
From Mr. Braunstein, how Shields won:

A) Once again, his changeup was outstanding. Shields threw 23 of 24 changeups for strikes Tuesday, yet the pitch may have been more effective Sunday. While he threw just 18 changeups (14 for strikes), Shields registered five of his seven strikeouts with the pitch Sunday, and the Blue Jays missed on nine of 13 swings against it.
B) Seven Blue Jays hitters were retired on the first pitch, most against Shields over the last three seasons. This is of note particularly for Shields, whose 53 hits and 11 home runs allowed on the first pitch last season were most in baseball.
C) Shields featured his curveball Sunday, throwing 34 of them, 10 more than in any start over the last three seasons. He threw his curveball just over 14 percent of the time in 2009 and 2010; that number is up over 22 percent so far in 2011.

14. Michael Morse hit his first homer.

15. The Royals had a really rough weekend, writes Bob Dutton.

16. The Pirates fell to the Nationals.

17. The Braves rallied in a big way, with a big hit from Jason Heyward. Chipper Jones had a birthday bash.

18. The Yankees prevailed at the end of an eventful day. They were still upset about what happened on Saturday.

19. Carlos Zambrano had a bad day.
[h3]Patience Index[/h3]
[h4]The Patient Shall Inherit the At Bat[/h4]
These hitters saw the most pitches per plate appearance on Sunday.
[table][tr][th=""]Hitter[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]Pitches[/th][th=""]P/PA[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jason Giambi[/td][td]4[/td][td]27[/td][td]6.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Hideki Matsui[/td][td]5[/td][td]33[/td][td]6.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Buck[/td][td]4[/td][td]26[/td][td]6.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]4[/td][td]26[/td][td]6.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Geovany Soto[/td][td]4[/td][td]25[/td][td]6.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carl Crawford[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Miguel Olivo[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]David Ortiz[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Felipe Lopez[/td][td]3[/td][td]18[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][/table]



Spoiler [+]
ST. LOUIS -- Joey Votto stares at his cell phone so intently that you're not sure whether you want to interrupt him. He glances at you. "I'm just playing Scrabble," he says.

This is something at which he would seem to be proficient, because of the thought he puts into every day, every at-bat, every pitch. And these days, his at-bats are different, now that he's got a Most Valuable Player Award on his résumé and a reputation, among opposing pitchers, for turning leads into deficits.

Dusty Baker, the Cincinnati Reds manager, has seen the evolution in how pitchers work to Votto, and he's talked with Votto about how another hitter he knew in the past faced the same challenge: Barry Bonds.

Pitchers work to Votto the way they'd creep around a gator, with extraordinary wariness. There are no cookies any more, no easy get-ahead fastballs to start an at-bat, no predictable fastballs when the pitcher is behind in the count.

So Votto must be patient. He must wait for pitchers to throw him a strike, and he must be focused, because at any time, the pitcher might throw him the only hittable pitch he'll get in a sequence of pitches.

"But I'm kind of in a good position, because I can let the game come to me," he says. "Before, I felt like I had to go get it.

"Pitchers will try to feel out what my weaknesses are on any given day, until I beat them. And then they change. And they won't throw the same pitch [repeatedly]. Like St. Louis, in the past [the Cardinals] would have a completely different approach every single at-bat that I would face them."

Think about it from the perspective of the gator: He knows nobody is going to charge head-on. He merely has to be ready for the moment when the leg comes close enough to snatch.

"I have to be ready and locked into every single pitch," Votto says. "That pitch [to hit] might come in a 3-0 count. It might come that 1-1 pitch -- and where people sometimes get confused is that it doesn't have to be a fastball."

Most hitters will look for fastballs and then adjust to other pitches, but as Votto has learned to let the game come to him -- as he's learned to diagnose pitchers and their intent -- he will go off the board and look for a secondary pitch, to do damage. He'll go through an entire at-bat looking for a slider against a pitcher like Chris Carpenter. Or maybe, against a given pitcher, he'll look for a splitter.

"I don't need a fastball," said Votto. "I don't need a hanging changeup. There are a lot of pitches that I can hit."

Three hours later, Votto came to bat against Carpenter, with the count at three balls and no strikes, and mashed a two-run homer, his fourth homer of the year.

Before the game, Baker had mused about Votto's home run numbers being down from last year. That was, he explained, not because he's not getting "home run pitches" to drive. But look at what else he's doing in being patient, Baker said, in waiting for the pitches to drive. So far this season, Votto is hitting .392, with a .505 on-base percentage.

As Votto waits for a particular pitch, if he guesses on a splitter, "those pitches don't come in as quickly [as the fastball]," he says. "I can read the angle they're coming in and I can position myself. And if they're in the right spot ..."

Bang.

The conversation with the visitor ends, and Votto reaches for his phone again, to continue the Scrabble game. He searches patiently for the right word, in the right place, to do the greatest damage.

• The first major hole among the perceived front-runners has developed, at the back of the Texas bullpen. The Rangers already knew they had depth and quality problems among their right-handed setup men, and now they have lost closer Neftali Feliz to the disabled list, because of a dreaded sore shoulder.

Said Texas manager Ron Washington: "We've got no bona fide closer right now. It's that simple."

This is an extremely difficult time to land a reliever -- and especially a closer -- because other teams will insist that the Rangers pay sticker price. For example, Texas could call the Padres about Heath Bell, who will almost certainly be traded during the season, but San Diego presumably will ask for two or three oil fields in return. Bell is expected to be one of the most sought-after players of the summer before the trade deadline, and the Rangers would have to overpay to take him off the board.

• On Saturday morning, it was clear that the Reds were still upset about what they perceived to be gamesmanship on the part of the Cardinals; Cincinnati felt it wasn't privy to the same weather information that St. Louis used.

The Cardinals say it was because of an incorrect forecast. Bernie Miklasz feels Dusty Baker should have been better prepared on Friday and anticipated a little gamesmanship.

The Reds are not going to pursue the matter any more. But you can be sure of this: It won't be forgotten.

The Reds came back for a win Saturday, as John Fay writes, and Jay Bruce had the pivotal at-bat; Baker thought about pulling him. Late mistakes cost the Cardinals.

Edinson Volquez will get the ball tonight, bearing the strangest set of statistics in the majors: He has a 29.25 ERA in the first inning, allowing 13 runs, and thereafter, he's allowed three runs. It's gotten to the point, Baker conceded, that it could be a mental block for Volquez. Baker has spoken to him about his mental approach for his starts, and is convinced he's doing all the right things leading into the game.

But pitching coach Bryan Price said once the game starts, he wonders if Volquez is worrying too much about using his entire repertoire of pitches. Rather, he'd like to see Volquez be aggressive with his fastball in the first inning and attack the bottom half of the strike zone. We'll see how it goes tonight.

• By the way: The Reds weren't the only team feeling that there were some rain-delay shenanigans going on -- Livan Hernandez thought the Pirates did the same thing as the Cardinals allegedly did.

• There is early speculation Anthony Rizzo, one the pieces that the Padres landed in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, could be called up to the big leagues. After all, Rizzo is off to a great start in Triple-A Tuscon and the Padres are starving for runs. Rizzo is hitting .431 with six homers, 24 RBIs and a 1.293 OPS.

But it's much more likely -- if San Diego decides that Brad Hawpe is not going to dig himself out of his early-season slump -- that the Padres would summon Kyle Blanks to play first, rather than Rizzo. It's much more likely that Rizzo will get a call-up in the middle of the season.

San Diego's offensive troubles are acute, and it's kind of crazy to think that Rizzo -- who will inevitably struggle when he reaches the majors, as almost all rookies do -- would immediately be a difference-maker for the Padres. He needs time.

The Padres lost again Saturday, mustering only two runs. It feels like every run scored against San Diego these days is a touchdown and a two-point conversion, because of the Padres' offensive problems.

And today, they get to face Roy Halladay.

• The relationship between the Dodgers and the city of Los Angeles has soured, but the relationship is far from over, writes Scott Gold and Reed Johnson. The Dodgers are no longer perfect in the Bud Selig Era, as Dylan Hernandez writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]1. Heard this: In the highest offices of a handful of other teams, the heavy speculation is that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio would be the most likely candidate to move from one team to the Dodgers -- if Major League Baseball fends off the expected legal challenges of Frank McCourt, if MLB decides to have an established owner take over the Dodgers, and if Attanasio actually were to take the opportunity, if presented. But it will take months for all of this to play out.
2. Freddie Freeman is making so much progress at the plate that he was moved to the No. 3 spot.

3. The Cubs are sticking with James Russell, because they don't have a lot of great alternatives.

4. Felipe Lopez got a lecture and a seat on the bench, Marc Topkin writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]1. Ryan Kalish could require season-ending surgery.
2. Rickie Weeks got a day off because of a finger injury, writes Todd Rosiak.

3. Franklin Gutierrez has irritable bowel syndrome, writes Mason Kelly. Within this notebook, there is also word that Dave Aardsma is making progress in his minor league rehab, and that he'll be the Mariners' closer when he returns.

4. Brian Matusz will be out until mid-May.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. The White Sox are playing some awful baseball these days, and they got skunked by the Tigers; Ozzie Guillen says they were too passive, and he thinks it's time for the White Sox to get mean. Hitting coach Greg Walker is angry about what is being said about the White Sox hitters.
2. The Red Sox have found their mojo on their West Coast trip; they dominated the Angels on Saturday, as Scott Lauber writes, behind Daisuke Matsuzaka. Carl Crawford had a couple of hits. From Lee Singer of ESPN Stats and Info, how Matsuzaka shut down the Angels:
(A) Matsuzaka threw his fastball for strikes. Forty-eight of his 64 fastballs (75.0 percent) went for strikes, Matsuzaka's third-highest fastball strike percentage since 2009.
(B) He showed the Angels his full repertoire, throwing at least 10 fastballs, cutters, curveballs, sliders and changeups for the first time in the last three seasons.
(C) Matsuzaka kept the ball away from Angels hitters, getting most of his outs on outside pitches. Sixty of Matsuzaka's 115 pitches were away, and he got 13 outs on those pitches, including six strikeouts. The 13 outs and six strikeouts are both the most for Matsuzaka on outside pitches in a start over the last three seasons.

Matsuzaka allowed one hit over eight innings against the Angels on Saturday, on the heels of his seven-inning, one-hit outing Monday against Toronto. Matsuzaka is just the 15th starter in the past 90 years with two consecutive starts of seven innings or more while allowing one hit or fewer in each.

Consecutive Starts 7+ IP, One Hit or Fewer, Last 20 Seasons
2011 Matsuzaka
2009 Vicente Padilla
2006 Freddy Garcia
2002 Pedro Martinez
1999 Ron Villone





Matsuzaka is throwing more strikes and more fastballs in his last two starts than he did in his first two starts. He's also missing more bats and getting more swings on pitches out of the strike zone.

[h4]Daisuke Matsuzaka, 2011 Season[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]First Two Starts[/th][th=""]Last Two Starts[/th][/tr][tr][td]Opp BA[/td][td].412[/td][td].043[/td][/tr][tr][td]Strike pct[/td][td]60.1[/td][td]66.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fastball pct[/td][td]52.4[/td][td]61.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Miss pct[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]23.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chase pct[/td][td]18.3[/td][td]32.3[/td][/tr][/table]
3. The Angels are seeing for themselves firsthand that the Red Sox are getting their sea legs back; they managed just one hit in eight innings, Baxter Holmes writes.
4. Brad Penny was The Man for the Tigers, allowing one hit -- on a play that could've been a hit or an error. A scorer's call remained intact, writes Lynn Henning.

5. The Yankees had a 15-3 blowout and A-Rod had a big day, going 2-for-5 with a double, grand slam and six RBIs on Saturday, putting him in some elite company. From Elias:

Most 6+ RBI Games All Time
Lou Gehrig 14
Alex Rodriguez 14
Joe DiMaggio 12
Dave Kingman 11
Babe Ruth 11
Al Simmons 10
Ted Williams 10

With six RBIs Saturday (giving him 1,847 in his career), Rodriguez moves into 10th place on the all-time RBIs list, passing Carl Yastrzemski (1,844).

6. Tim Hudson outdueled Tim Lincecum.

7. The Orioles got hit around, and Josh Rupe appeared to hit Russell Martin with a purpose pitch. This game had all the feeling of so many Yankees- Orioles games in the last decade, with New York just pushing around Baltimore.

8. The Royals let early opportunities slip away.

9. The Cubs put together a big-time rally.

10. Fausto Carmona had a bad day, Paul Hoynes writes.

11. Justin Morneau delivered in a big spot. At least his concussion is not an issue, writes Sid Hartman. He caught some playoff fever, writes Tom Powers.

12. A near-collision scared the heck out of two Tampa Bay outfielders, but this was only a near-miss -- and the Rays hung on to win.

13. Jason Hammel picked up the Rockies in a big way.

14. Barry Enright was frustrated by his latest outing, writes Nick Piecoro.

15. The Pirates put together a bunch of runs.

16. Javier Vazquez was good, but the Marlins' offense was not. Within this Clark Spencer story, there is word that fans booed Hanley Ramirez, who is hitting .194.

17. Aggressive play came back to bite the Brewers.

18. Ryan Howard made the Padres pay for a decision they made, writes Matt Gelb.

19. Lincecum had a bad day, and the Giants are mired in April blahs, writes Henry Schulman.

20. Coco Crisp ended a 20-inning scoreless streak for Oakland, which went on to romp over the Mariners, as Susan Slusser writes.

21. Jason Vargas lost his ninth consecutive decision.

22. Daniel Murphy delivered for the Mets.

23. Jose Bautista cannot be stopped and Brandon Morrow pitched well in his debut, but the Jays lost.

[h4]Hold your horses[/h4]
Most pitches per plate appearance (minimum three plate appearances)
[table][tr][th=""]Hitter[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]No. Pitches[/th][th=""]P per PA[/th][/tr][tr][td]Chris Davis[/td][td]3[/td][td]21[/td][td]7.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jack Hannahan[/td][td]3[/td][td]21[/td][td]7.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Braun[/td][td]5[/td][td]34[/td][td]6.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Janish[/td][td]4[/td][td]26[/td][td]6.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carlos Santana[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gregg Dobbs[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Miguel Montero[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rick Ankiel[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Young[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][/table]



Spoiler [+]
There wasn't much for the Florida Marlins' bullpen to do on Friday night, as Anibal Sanchez pursued a no-hitter. Maybe this left more time for Edward Mujica to watch teammates and hone his imitations of them.

Mujica came to the Marlins with Ryan Webb in a trade with the San Diego Padres, and right away Mujica demonstrated his ability to copy -- to near perfection -- how Webb moves, from the time that the phone in the bullpen rings to how he starts to get ready in the bullpen to how he runs onto the field and sets up on the mound. The other Florida relievers thought this might just be a case of one reliever knowing the other well after playing together for a long time in San Diego -- until Mujica started imitating all the other relievers, as well.

[+] Enlarge
Rich Pilling/Getty ImagesThe Marlins didn't need to use their best-in-the-majors bullpen during Anibal Sanchez's near-no-hitter on Friday night.

"He's unbelievable," said reliever Brian Sanches. "He might be one of the funniest guys I've ever been around."

If Mujica were to do a proper impersonation of a Marlins reliever these days, he'd have to include the act of registering outs on the mound. So far this year, no bullpen has had more success than that of Florida, an extraordinary turnaround from a year ago. The Marlins' bullpen was a major problem for Florida in 2010, especially early in the year, when Fredi Gonzalez had no left-handers at his disposal.

But general manager Larry Beinfest filled that hole in the offseason, signing free agent Randy Choate and trading for Mike Dunn, and beyond balancing the bullpen, he put together a whole lot of power arms. The Marlins -- who finished 17th in bullpen ERA last year, at 4.01 -- have a 1.63 ERA so far this season, the best in the majors.

Some of the numbers they've generated:

• Opposing hitters are batting .180 against the Florida bullpen, and have an OPS of .517.

• The Marlins' relievers have issued just 18 walks in 55⅓ innings.

• The Marlins are 5-for-5 in save chances.

• Dunn has allowed one hit and no runs in seven appearances, generating nine strikeouts in 5⅔ innings.

• Sanches has allowed one hit and no runs in 10⅔ innings.

Leo Nunez has a 2.00 ERA, while converting all of Florida's save chances.

• Webb has pitched 11 innings, with a 1.18 WHIP.

"If you go back to last year," Sanches said the other day, "we had a bunch of open spots when spring training started. The whole spring was an audition.

"This year, we came in pretty much set. We had eight guys competing for seven spots. It allowed us to build chemistry early."

Which means playing golf together, or going to dinner together, or laughing as Mujica does one of his spot-on imitations. Or maybe just turning at the sound when one of the other hard throwers warms up -- something Sanches has done when Dunn starts to explode the catcher's mitt as he gets ready to pitch in the bullpen, throwing in the mid-90s. "He's got that backspin -- that heavy, hard fastball," Sanches said.

"It's been a big difference from the start of last year."

The Marlins' bullpen just sat and watched as Sanchez came within three outs of becoming the 29th pitcher in history to throw at least two no-hitters, Juan Rodriguez writes. Edwin Rodriguez let Sanchez finish what he started.

From Daniel Braunstein of ESPN Stats & Info:

Longest no-hit bids, 2011 season

Anibal Sanchez, Florida, 4/22 vs. Colorado, 8 innings
Josh Johnson, Florida, 4/13 at Atlanta, 7⅓
Orioles combined, 4/2 at Tampa Bay, 6⅔
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco, 4/18 at Colorado, 6⅓
Josh Johnson, Florida, 4/1 vs. New York Mets, 6

Last season, there were five no-hit bids that were broken up in the ninth inning, the highest number since 1990. Anibal Sanchez is the first to lose a no-hit bid in the ninth this season.

[h4]No more no-no[/h4]
No-hitters broken up in ninth inning, past two seasons
[table][tr][th=""]Date[/th][th=""]Pitcher(s)[/th][th=""]Game[/th][th=""]Outs in 9th[/th][/tr][tr][td]Friday[/td][td]Anibal Sanchez[/td][td]Marlins vs. Rockies[/td][td]0 out[/td][/tr][tr][td]August 8[/td][td]Brandon Morrow[/td][td]Blue Jays vs. Rays[/td][td]2 out[/td][/tr][tr][td]July 10[/td][td]Travis Wood[/td][td]Reds vs. Phillies[/td][td]0 out[/td][/tr][tr][td]June 13[/td][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]Cubs vs. White Sox[/td][td]0 out[/td][/tr][tr][td]June 2[/td][td]Armando Galarraga[/td][td]Tigers vs. Indians[/td][td]2 out[/td][/tr][tr][td]May 6[/td][td]Harden/Harrison/O'Day/Feliz[/td][td]Rangers vs. Twins[/td][td]1 out[/td][/tr][/table]

Most complete game wins allowing one hit or fewer (since 1998)
Roy Halladay -- 3
Anibal Sanchez -- 3
Mark Buehrle -- 3
Randy Johnson -- 3

How Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez nearly no-hit the Rockies:

A.) He had a great fastball: Sanchez's fastball averaged 92.1 MPH, only the eighth time since the 2009 season he averaged 92 or higher in a start. Seventy-one of his 123 pitches (57.7 percent) were fastballs, above his average of 53.7 through his first three starts. He recorded eight misses on 26 swings on his fastball (30.8 percent), the third-highest miss percentage on his fastball in the past three seasons.

[h4]Throwin' smoke[/h4]
Anibal Sanchez's fastball, 2011 season
[table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]First 3 Starts[/th][th=""]Friday[/th][/tr][tr][td]Velocity[/td][td]91.1[/td][td]92.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Miss pct[/td][td]23.1[/td][td]30.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Opp BA[/td][td].395[/td][td].111[/td][/tr][/table]

B.) Sanchez often put himself in hitters' counts, going to a 2-0 or 3-1 count nine times to six hitters. However, he was able to recover by being aggressive. Sanchez threw five of his nine 2-0 or 3-1 pitches up in the zone, all on fastballs, with the Rockies missing on all four they swung at. Overall, five of Sanchez's 16 swings-and-misses for the game came on the nine pitches he made when behind 2-0 or 3-1.

C.) While his fastball was the best it had been in a while, Sanchez used his off-speed pitches to get hitters out, especially with two strikes. With two strikes, Sanchez retired 13 Rockies hitters with off-speed pitches, despite throwing just 17 off-speed pitches with two strikes the entire game. Sanchez recorded 12 outs on his slider, including nine with two strikes -- the most in a start since September 2009.

• Steve Garvey is looking to buy the Dodgers, as part of a group, writes Bill Shaikin.

Many folks within the sport believe that Dennis Gilbert will wind up as part of the group that owns the Dodgers -- assuming that Frank McCourt's days as Dodgers owner are over.

Steve Soboroff says he has not lost his mind, Robin Abcarian writes.

Ned Colletti has been given budgetary guidelines. Heard this: Major League Baseball has presented the Dodgers with an approval process they should follow if they are presented with a trade opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 3-0 in their Bud Selig era.

Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy have been hammering each other on Twitter, writes Susan Slusser.

• Speaking of Twitter: Asked a couple of Twitter brethren about whether they would prefer a best-of-three format for the No. 4 and 5 seeds in the playoffs, or just a one-game playoff.

@Jguthrie46: "I prefer a best of 3 to be played 3 consecutive days after season ends. 1-1-1 game setup so each team has home playoff game. If teams are separated by large distance, one off day in series. This gives division winners opp. to set up rotations while wild cards battle it out (an advantage they earned)."

@PeterMoylan: "Best of three."

Mark Teixeira doesn't like the idea to expand the playoffs. Jim Leyland likes it, as mentioned within this notebook.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Pirates claimed Brandon Wood on waivers. It's an interesting choice for Pittsburgh, given Wood's acute results in the majors.

2. The Rangers are not restricting Alexi Ogando to a pitch or innings count.

3. It looks like the Cubs are going to replace James Russell in their rotation, as they scramble for solutions.

4. The Orioles are skipping Chris Tillman's spot in the rotation.

5. The Rockies made a trade for a former Rule 5 pick.

6. The Marlins will use a couple of guys to replace Logan Morrison.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brad Lidge is cautious as he goes through his recovery.

2. The Twins have seen an improvement in Joe Mauer's condition.

3. Kevin Youkilis got a day off.

4. Corey Hart is getting very close to coming off the disabled list.

5. Angel Pagan wound up on the disabled list.

6. Phil Hughes continues to work through his throwing program.

7. Brian Matusz had a pain-free throwing session.

8. Jake Peavy is reporting some progress.

9. Bruce Bochy is not optimistic that Andres Torres can come off the disabled list Tuesday.
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
Michael Pineda firmly established himself as the early leader for the AL Rookie of the Year with his latest outing. How Pineda won:

A.) He pounded the strike zone with his mid-90s fastball, throwing 41 of his 61 fastballs in the zone (67.2 percent). A's hitters put just nine of their 31 swings (29 percent) on his fastballs in the zone in play, fouling off a whopping 16 of them. The A's finished just 1-for-11 on at-bats ending in fastballs.

B.) Pineda got ahead of A's hitters, throwing first-pitch strikes to 19 of the 25 batters he faced (76 percent). This helped him avoid hitters' counts, as he went to only one 2-0 and zero 3-1 counts.

Highest average fastball velocity (among starters, 2011 season)

Michael Pineda -- 95.9*
David Price -- 94.5
Alexi Ogando -- 94.2
Josh Johnson -- 93.9
Justin Verlander -- 93.8*
*Entering Friday

1. Cole Hamels had a great night on his return to his hometown. From Mr. Braunstein, how Hamels won:

A.) With his great changeup: Hamels threw 29 changeups, using it most effectively as a put-away pitch. Only 11 of his changeups came with two strikes, but the Padres swung at nine of them, missing on five. He retired seven hitters on those 11 pitches, including five by strikeout.

B.) He recorded 12 of his 16 swings-and-misses on his changeup. The 12 misses tied the second most anyone has recorded on a changeup in a start this season, trailing only James Shields' 13 on April 2.

2. Ryan Braun had a really big day, the day after finishing his new contract.

3. A move by Tony La Russa paid off.

4. Tommy Hanson had his best outing of the year, David O'Brien writes.

5. Oakland's run production continues to be a problem.

6. John McDonald -- yes, him -- slammed a decisive homer, Bill Lankhof writes.

7. Justin Verlander kept his focus after giving up a couple of homers and racked up strikeout No. 1,000.

8. The Red Sox battled through another one-run victory against the Angels -- the sixth win in Boston's past seven games. Boston's starters have a 1.19 ERA in those games, Peter Abraham writes.

9. Miller Park has been a house of dejection and ejection for the Astros, writes Steve Campbell.

10. Ike Davis was The Man for the Mets.

11. Derek Holland made an adjustment, and was helped by a bunch of homers.

12. The Rockies have been struggling to hit on the road, and they were nearly no-hit … again.

13. The Nationals are getting hammered by rain in the past week.

14. The Yankees were rained out again, and they know that down the road, they will pay a price for it.

15. The Royals' pitchers got hammered in Texas.

16. The Reds' starting pitcher warmed up and was ready to go -- and never got to throw a pitch; Dusty Baker wondered aloud if the Reds got the same information from the weatherman that the Cardinals did.

17. The Twins are not upset their game was rained out; Justin Morneau could play today.

18. The White Sox are in a serious spiral -- that's eight losses in the past nine games -- but the veterans on the team say it's too early to panic, Mark Gonzales writes.

19. Casey Coleman got hit hard.

20. Madison Bumgarner didn't see the fourth inning, Ron Kroichick writes.

21. Dan Haren is mortal.

22. The Padres were shut out for the sixth time. It's going to be hard for the Padres to keep Anthony Rizzo down in the minors, writes Tim Sullivan.
[h3]The Patience Index[/h3]
[h4]Hold your horses[/h4]
Most pitches per plate appearance (minimum three plate appearances)
[table][tr][th=""]Hitter[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]No. Pitches[/th][th=""]P per PA[/th][/tr][tr][td]Cliff Pennington[/td][td]3[/td][td]21[/td][td]7.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]David Wright[/td][td]4[/td][td]27[/td][td]6.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Mathis[/td][td]3[/td][td]19[/td][td]6.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Reyes[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddy Sanchez[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pat Burrell[/td][td]3[/td][td]18[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jerry Sands[/td][td]5[/td][td]29[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bobby Abreu[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chad Billingsley[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Konerko[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Murphy[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][/table]



Spoiler [+]
Gordon is finally living up to the potential that made him the second overall pick in the 2005 draft.
Alex Gordon was hitless in his first 13 at-bats of spring training this year. In his 14th at-bat, his bat was shattered, splinters flying everywhere. But with that swing, he dropped a looper over the head of the second baseman. Others joked with him, telling him that this was the kind of hit that he could look back upon as the turning point in his season.

That was about the last day when something bad happened for Gordon, the former first-round pick who had struggled to establish himself in the majors thanks to injuries and inconsistency. Gordon is hitting .354 with a .393 on-base percentage and a .937 OPS, and in his first full season playing left field, he has performed well defensively, making a pivotal diving catch in the Royals' win on Tuesday.

Gordon has put in a lot of work in recent offseasons on his swing, but he said the other day that an adjustment he made in the middle of spring training has really helped him. He was taking batting practice in the spring, and someone mentioned out loud that he should get his hands back, to be in a better position to swing the bat.

Gordon absorbed that information and made the change: He started keeping his hands back in his setup, which gave him a chance to be in a hitting position sooner. With his old mechanics, he had to go through the process of drawing his hands back before starting forward; with the change, he was in a position to take a hack faster. "It felt free," he said. "I felt ready to hit, a lot more comfortable."

There has been much focus on the Royals players who are not currently in Kansas City -- top prospects like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and others. But even before those players arrive, Gordon said, "We feel like we can do our damage."

And Gordon is this year, in a big way.

The Royals pulled out the final game of the series against the Indians with a big hit from Melky Cabrera. Chemistry and comeback wins are piling up for Kansas City.

Ryan Braun followed the path of Troy Tulowitzki and agreed to a deal that will keep him with the Brewers well after Mariano Rivera is inducted into the Hall of Fame. This happened after he told the Brewers he wanted to play in Milwaukee for life.

[h4]Hall of Fame Company[/h4]
Here are the players with a .300 average and 125 homers in their first four seasons.
[table][tr][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Player[/td][td]Years[/td][td]BA[/td][td]HR[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Braun[/td][td]2007-10[/td][td].307[/td][td]128[/td][/tr][tr][td]Albert Pujols[/td][td]2001-04[/td][td].333[/td][td]160[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ted Williams*[/td][td]1939-42[/td][td].356[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe DiMaggio*[/td][td]1936-39[/td][td].341[/td][td]137[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chuck Klein*[/td][td]1928-31[/td][td].360[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]* Hall of Famer[/td][/tr][/table]

From ESPN Stats & Information: Now in his fifth season, Ryan Braun is one of only five players with 125 homers and a .300 batting average after four seasons in the majors. He joins Albert Pujols and Hall of Famers Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio and Chuck Klein.

[h4]More Elite Company[/h4]
Most extra-base hits in first four MLB seasons.
[table][tr][th=""]Albert Pujols[/th][th=""]358[/th][/tr][tr][td]Joe DiMaggio[/td][td]329[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ted Williams[/td][td]314[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chuck Klein[/td][td]305[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Teixeira[/td][td]300[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Braun[/td][td]297[/td][/tr][tr][td]Earl Averill[/td][td]295[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Mize[/td][td]292[/td][/tr][/table]

• The Braun deal might price out Prince Fielder, writes Todd Rosiak. I don't think there's much expectation that Fielder will take a deal with Milwaukee anyway.

• Frank McCourt's $30 million loan for operating costs -- apparently done without the approval of Major League Baseball -- seems to have been a tipping point in the commissioner's decision to take over the Dodgers, and Diane Pucin has a closer look at that loan.

Steve Soboroff, a new Dodgers executive, blasted baseball, as Bill Shaikin writes, and he had a lot more to say.

From afar, a couple of team executives tagged Soboroff with a nickname: Baghdad Bob, in honor of Iraq's former "disinformation minister."

Bud Selig drew parallels between the Rangers' situation last year and what the Dodgers are going through now. McCourt faces long odds in trying to regain control of the Dodgers.

Oakland owner Lew Wolff says he's not interested in owning the Dodgers. Red Sox chairman Tom Werner told Nick Cafardo that he's not interested, either.

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio dismissed speculation that he might be interested in the Dodgers. A longtime executive makes this point: If an established owner is privately interested in the Dodgers, he will work to keep this secret until the last possible moment so he doesn't undercut his own franchise.

There is uncertainty about what comes next for the Dodgers, writes Richard Sandomir.

Derek Jeter has one extra-base hit in 64 at-bats, and he is hitting ground balls at a rate that we haven't seen from any player in the past decade. From FanGraphs, here are the highest ground-ball percentages since 2002 (when the data were first available on the site).

The formula is ground balls divided by balls in play

1. Derek Jeter, 72.9 (2011)
2. Alcides Escobar, 67.7 (2007)
3. Luis Castillo, 66.7 (2007)
4. Derek Jeter, 65.7 (2010)
5. Luis Castillo, 65.0 (2004)

Here are the highest ground-ball ratios (ground balls for every fly ball) in the majors this season.

1.Derek Jeter, 2.93
2. Wilson Valdez, 2.23
3. Alcides Escobar, 2.10
4. Jose Tabata, 2.06
5. Elvis Andrus, 1.80

• Wrote here the other day about the perception of rival evaluators, who wondered whether Felix Hernandez had started to grow frustrated and distracted by Seattle's losing. This was not the case on Thursday: King Felix shut down the Oakland Athletics and made one run stand up, Geoff Baker writes.

From Daniel Braunstein of ESPN Stats & Information, how Hernandez dominated:

A. He kept the ball out of the middle of the plate. Of his 126 pitches, 104 (82.5 percent) were inside or outside, his fourth-highest percentage in a start since 2009.

[h4]Straight A's[/h4]
Felix Hernandez, this season
[table][tr][th=""]Stats[/th][th=""]vs A's[/th][th=""]vs Others[/th][/tr][tr][td]W-L[/td][td]2-0[/td][td]0-2[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA[/td][td]1.08[/td][td]5.50[/td][/tr][tr][td]BB[/td][td]3[/td][td]7[/td][/tr][tr][td]Opp BA[/td][td].161[/td][td].329[/td][/tr][/table]

B. He put Oakland hitters away, as they were 0-for-13 with two strikes. Hernandez turned to his fastball more often with two strikes than he normally does. Twenty-nine of his 40 two-strike pitches (72.5 percent) were fastballs, his third-highest number in a start since 2009. Hernandez struck out five hitters with fastballs, and the A's were 0-for-9 in at-bats ending with the heater.

C. Early in the game, Hernandez threw his fastball at an even higher rate with two strikes. Twenty-one of Hernandez's 25 two-strike pitches in the first five innings were fastballs. In the final three innings, Hernandez threw eight fastballs and seven off-speed pitches with two strikes. Hernandez struck out two hitters in the eighth inning, both on off-speed deliveries.

• An interesting observation from a GM: The best division in the majors right now is arguably the AL West, because of its pitching. The lowest staff ERAs in the majors:

1. A's, 2.58
2. Angels, 2.90
9. Texas, 3.42
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]

1. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3760/jason-varitekJason Varitek was in the starting lineup for the second straight game, Nick Cafardo writes. Look, it's clear that Jarrod Saltalamacchia's first weeks as Boston's primary catcher have not gone smoothly. The perception of evaluators is that pitchers are more comfortable throwing to Varitek. If Saltalamacchia were hitting, the Red Sox would be more patient -- but he is batting .194. Boston is not ready to give up on him, but it would be a matter of due diligence at this point for them to start evaluating alternatives.

2. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30117/gordon-beckhamGordon Beckham could be demoted from the No. 2 spot in the Chicago lineup.

3. Ryan Raburn's shift to the infield could benefit the Tigers, writes John Lowe. It allows Jim Leyland to keep another of his best hitters in the lineup.

4. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28714/jesus-floresJesus Flores was sent back to the minors.

5. Injuries and illnesses could lead to call-ups for the Twins.

6. The Brewers altered their roster.

7. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29174/brett-gardnerBrett Gardner is slumping but won't be benched.

8. The Blue Jays sent Brett Cecil to the minors.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]

1. If http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-puntoNick Punto is ready to go, he'll get lots of at-bats at second base.

2. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4146/geoff-blumGeoff Blum needs surgery.

3. Oakland got good news about http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28749/dallas-bradenDallas Braden the other day -- he has inflammation in his shoulder, a problem that will not require surgery, and the Athletics are hopeful that he could be back in a month or so.

4. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30536/logan-morrisonLogan Morrison will miss two to four weeks.

5. The Rangers' pitching depth has taken a hit, writes Gil LeBreton.

6. Clint Barmes' return could set off a roster shuffle for the Astros.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]

1. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30465/mike-leakeMike Leake ended the Reds' losing streak and took some heat along the way.

2. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28476/matt-kempMatt Kemp was The Man for the Dodgers; his walk-off homer came on an 0-2 slider. Last season, when Kemp got to two strikes, you could polish him off pretty easily. This season, not so much. In fact, Kemp didn't have a single 0-2 home run all of last year (and still has only six in his career).

[h4]Matt Kemp hitting with two strikes[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]2010[/th][th=""]2011[/th][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].166[/td][td].351[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slug pct.[/td][td].290[/td][td].568[/td][/tr][tr][td]Strikeout pct.[/td][td]47.0[/td][td]39.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Miss pct.[/td][td]29.8[/td][td]24.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chase pct.[/td][td]44.3[/td][td]35.8[/td][/tr][/table]

3. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4789/kyle-lohseKyle Lohse showed again that he is back to form, Derrick Goold writes.

4. With a makeshift lineup, the Twins finished their brutal road trip on a good note, La Velle Neal writes. How Twins starter http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6261/scott-bakerScott Baker shut down the Orioles:

A. He worked off the plate ... and got help: threw 60 pitches out of the strike zone and turned 29 of those into strikes. Five were missed, 18 were fouled off, one was put in play, and five were called strikes by plate umpire Mark Wegner.

B. He was efficient: Four of his seven innings lasted 12 pitches or fewer, and 16 of 26 hitters saw four pitches or fewer during their plate appearance.

C. He recorded 13 swinging strikes, but nine of those ended at-bats (with strikeouts). The nine swinging K's were his most since June 16 of last year (11).

D. He had a little extra: His fastball averaged 91.2 mph, his highest so far this year (last start 90.4). The Orioles went only 1-for-13 in at-bats ending with heaters.

5. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4575/roy-oswaltRoy Oswalt buried the Padres.

6. The Nationals had no answers against Kyle Lohse, Adam Kilgore writes.

7. The Angels lost in extra innings.

8. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30196/mat-latosMat Latos of the Padres has lost eight straight decisions; he's not getting a lot of run support.

9. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudsonDaniel Hudson continues to struggle.

10. Oakland would like to see less of a certain right-hander.

11. The White Sox finally snapped their losing streak.

12. The Indians' bullpen crumbled; Chris Perez's streak of 26 1/3 scoreless innings ended.

13. The Mets won, after Terry Collins was ejected. The Mets played in new/old uniforms.

14. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30583/mike-stantonMike Stanton hit his first homer of the year.

15. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6243/jeff-niemannJeff Niemann struggled again. The Rays saved this season with a great homestand, writes John Romano.

16. The Braves, struggling for runs, scraped together a lead -- then lost in extra innings.

17. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4000/carlos-leeCarlos Lee and the Astros missed a chance for a sweep.

18. The Orioles' offense let down http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5370/jeremy-guthrieJeremy Guthrie.

19. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29243/james-mcdonaldJames McDonald got shelled.

20. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5405/adrian-gonzalezAdrian Gonzalez got a big hit for the Red Sox, Peter Abraham writes.


Spoiler [+]
For all the differences between the 2011 Cincinnati Reds and the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, there is one striking similarity: the tremendous quality of the first basemen which headline these NL Central contenders. Albert Pujols may not have had the start that baseball fans have come to expect out of the man who has earned the moniker "The Machine," but his impending free agency remains one of the biggest stories in baseball. After receiving his first MVP award last season, Joey Votto has started 2011 on another MVP-caliber pace. Votto, however, won't hit the free-agent market until 2014. Let's forget reality for a second, though, and ask: If Votto were to join Pujols as a free agent after this season, which one would create more buzz around the league?

At first glance, it's difficult to imagine anybody overtaking Pujols. He owns three MVP awards, has played for nine All-Star teams and has never in his career failed to hit .300, slug 30 home runs, or drive in 100 RBIs. These feats of baseball insanity have resulted in rumors of a 10-year, $300 million contract for Pujols when he hits the market in November. However, at age 31, after 10 straight seasons of a .950 OPS or better, Pujols carries a .250/.311/.488 line into the weekend against Cincinnati.

Votto, on the other hand, has shown no signs of slowing down. Entering this weekend, Votto leads all players in wins above replacement with a staggering 1.7 through only 88 plate appearances. His .500 OBP leads all of baseball and his .487 wOBA places him behind only Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp among NL hitters. If Pujols and his career .433 wOBA could demand a cool $300 million, just think of what Votto could pull with this kind of production.

It's important to remember, however, that making sweeping judgments about player talent in only 20 games leads to problems. Pujols hasn't turned into a modern-day Gary Gaetti, and for as talented as Votto is, he's not the Italian version of Babe Ruth. Just as surely, though, the opening salvo of the 2011 season should impact our evaluations of these two players.

At the beginning of the season, the ZiPS projection system, created by ESPN contributor Dan Szymborski, saw Pujols as the best hitter in the National League by a relatively wide margin over Votto, with wOBAs of .415 and .400 respectively (for reference, three more hitters fall between .400 and .385). Luckily for us, ZiPS updates throughout the season. Entering Saturday's action, Votto has closed the gap, trailing Pujols by a barely relevant six points, .418 to .412.

However, this is not fantasy baseball, where results are results and context has little to no bearing. The front offices of Major League Baseball are acutely aware of the differences in home parks across the league. Votto has had the privilege of hitting in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark; Pujols has spent his entire career in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadiums II and III. The difference can be seen in the park adjusted version of wOBA, denoted wRC+. By wOBA, Pujols leads by a mere 4 percent, .433 to .415. By wRC+, a statistic scaled in the same way as OPS+ (100 is average, higher is better), Pujols leads 168 to 152, a 10 percent difference that definitively places Pujols in his own tier.

The question for executives in our mythical fantasy world (in which Votto and Pujols are both free agents) isn't which is better right now -- Pujols is still the clear choice, despite the meteoric rise of Votto over the past couple of years. The question instead lies on how they value the deeper future beyond the next three or four years. Any contract offered to either of these two behemoths of the baseball world will likely last nearly a decade, if not longer.

In the end, Pujols' overall edge in talent would likely earn him the highest average annual value of the two players. However, a nine-year contract for Pujols would run all the way through his age-40 season, which could discourage many teams from making such a commitment. A nine-year contract for Votto would run through his age-36 year, and seeing as the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies have already extended Braun, Ryan Howard and Troy Tulowitzki respectively through that age, it's easy to envision a scenario in which multiple teams would line up to keep Votto for nine years or longer.

For this reason, Votto may have an advantage on this theoretical free-agent market. He won't turn 28 until September and one could argue that his true peak still awaits him. Although Votto is already among the elite in terms of his plate discipline, power and pure hitting ability, he does have one area of his game that he could improve upon: contact rate. His career strikeout rate of 21.1 percent of at-bats sits just above the MLB average. In fact, a big part of Votto's early success has been his ability to avoid the strikeout -- through 20 games, he has struck out only 10 times, a big factor in his current batting average of .394.

In order to answer the question of which player would create the most buzz as a free agent, it really depends on how you define it. As the better player right now, Pujols would almost certainly lasso the most money on a yearly basis. Votto, on the other hand, still has potential to grow and is still years away from the typical age of decline for major league players. Despite the nearly incomparable talent of Pujols, for many executives, the combination of youth and greatness offered by Votto would command an even greater total fortune on the free-agent market.
 
Pro', Ian Kennedy is swagging all over the Phillies right now (out-dueling Lee in the process).

Edit: Correction, swagged.

10K's, 0 BB in a CG Shut-out
eek.gif
pimp.gif
, and he did it on the night after his wife gave birth to their first child.

Fantasy points!
 
Pro', Ian Kennedy is swagging all over the Phillies right now (out-dueling Lee in the process).

Edit: Correction, swagged.

10K's, 0 BB in a CG Shut-out
eek.gif
pimp.gif
, and he did it on the night after his wife gave birth to their first child.

Fantasy points!
 
Phils offense is a joke
laugh.gif
I think i heard on the radio that if the Phils had any kind of offense they would be 19-2 right now
sick.gif
they lost 3-4 games already 2-1, 2,-0. where they had either bases loaded or men on 3rd or 2nd with less than 1 out and couldnt get any runs
30t6p3b.gif


Lee had what 12 or 13 Ks
30t6p3b.gif
he deserves better
 
Phils offense is a joke
laugh.gif
I think i heard on the radio that if the Phils had any kind of offense they would be 19-2 right now
sick.gif
they lost 3-4 games already 2-1, 2,-0. where they had either bases loaded or men on 3rd or 2nd with less than 1 out and couldnt get any runs
30t6p3b.gif


Lee had what 12 or 13 Ks
30t6p3b.gif
he deserves better
 
Originally Posted by PhilBalla09

Phils offense is a joke
laugh.gif
I think i heard on the radio that if the Phils had any kind of offense they would be 19-2 right now
sick.gif
they lost 3-4 games already 2-1, 2,-0. where they had either bases loaded or men on 3rd or 2nd with less than 1 out and couldnt get any runs
30t6p3b.gif


Lee had what 12 or 13 Ks
30t6p3b.gif
he deserves better
I don't feel bad for you. Try watching the A's man. 
laugh.gif
 
30t6p3b.gif
We've been shutout 3 times in the last 5 days. 
sick.gif
 
Originally Posted by PhilBalla09

Phils offense is a joke
laugh.gif
I think i heard on the radio that if the Phils had any kind of offense they would be 19-2 right now
sick.gif
they lost 3-4 games already 2-1, 2,-0. where they had either bases loaded or men on 3rd or 2nd with less than 1 out and couldnt get any runs
30t6p3b.gif


Lee had what 12 or 13 Ks
30t6p3b.gif
he deserves better
I don't feel bad for you. Try watching the A's man. 
laugh.gif
 
30t6p3b.gif
We've been shutout 3 times in the last 5 days. 
sick.gif
 
You know what the media would be saying about Cliff if he had an ERA above 4 in NY right now?

laugh.gif


I'm proud and happy for IPK <3
 
You know what the media would be saying about Cliff if he had an ERA above 4 in NY right now?

laugh.gif


I'm proud and happy for IPK <3
 
Update of Brandon Webb.

Spoiler [+]
It's been more than two years since the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers' http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5455/brandon-webb">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5455/brandon-webb')" jQuery1303839150881="29">Brandon Webb pitched in a major league game (Opening Day 2009), and we're coming up on 21 months since he had shoulder surgery that August. Webb threw two innings at extended spring training in his first game action since some work at instructional league last year.

Let me cut to the chase: Even for a first outing in a long time, I expected more. Quite a bit more.

As I tweeted yesterday, the good news was that Webb needed just 16 pitches to work two clean innings against the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/sea/seattle-mariners')">Seattle Mariners' extended spring training team, throwing strikes on 13 of them. The bad news is in the following pitch chart of his outing.

First inning, Batter 1: 78 (mph) fastball (called strike), 80 fastball (broken-bat groundout to third)
First inning, Batter 2: 80 fastball (ball), 81 fastball (fly out to left)
First inning, Batter 3: 81 fastball (ball), 84 fastball (called), 69 curveball (swinging strike), 71 changeup (swinging strikeout)

Second inning, Batter 1: 79 fastball (ball), 80 fastball (foul), 80 fastball (groundout to short)
Second inning, Batter 2: 80 fastball (groundout to second)
Second inning, Batter 3: 79 fastball (called strike), 65 curveball (called strike), 82 fastball (foul), 71 changeup (groundout to the pitcher)

The area of concern is obvious: 12 fastballs -- one 84 mph, one 82, the rest 78-81. The Rangers' gun corroborated my gun readings in the first inning, and the Rangers used my numbers in the second when their gun malfunctioned. Like I said, I expected more this far removed from his surgery, even at this stage of his season. The sink was there on the fastball, but the velocity was not.

How did Webb feel the outing went?

"Better than expected actually," Webb said. "In the bullpen, I was all over the place, but I was throwing strikes, the movement was good, and two quick innings. Overall, I was real happy. I haven't been able to get up and down and pitch innings. I've been more about mass quantities [of pitches], like 60 pitches in one session. The up and down will be good."

After the outing, Webb was seen talking about his arm slot and release point with Rangers rehab pitching coordinator Keith Comstock. I asked Webb if he was concerned about his velocity at this stage.

"No, not right now," Webb said. "[Comstock] feels like there's more clicks in there, and I do too. I feel like there's definitely some more in there. I'm not too far off. 84 is a little low. When I was good I was probably 86-89, topping at 90 or so. If I can get back to 86-88 I think I'll be all right."

But can he get back there? At the very least that appears to be a serious question mark right now. I thought Webb's arm action looked stiff and restricted during the outing. Maybe there's a little more velocity in subsequent outings, as his arm gets a little looser, if it gets a little looser. Maybe.

Did Webb feel like he was going all out?

"Yeah, I felt like I was letting it go," Webb said. "Sometimes I don't let it go all the way fully for some reason, but for the most part I did."

The last game velocity we had for Webb were his instructional league outings at the end of 2010. At that time, he was at 78-82 mph in his first game, bumping up to 81-83 mph in subsequent outings. After the first one, another scout who was there told me he considered that velocity "scary" even at that stage of his rehab.

You really try to not to read too much into two innings of an extended spring training outing. However, it's been a long time since the surgery, and it's not just about what his radar readings are, but the lack of improvement in those readings since our last information seven months ago. Sitting 78-82 and topping at 84 may not seem like a long way from sitting in the high 80s and touching 90, but it is. Pitching is obviously not all about lighting up the gun, but Webb needs that velocity to make that sinker work the way we've come to expect. Webb's curve and changeup are also down by about the same amount in terms of his velocity, and his lazy curve was not a good pitch. The changeup action was solid.

Webb will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday, and then try to stretch out to three innings in a Saturday start. He's been very much an optimist throughout all of his rehab the past couple of years, but we still need to see a lot more here before we can get optimistic, as well. At the very least, Webb still appears to be a very long way off. The Rangers will give him all the time he needs and say there's no rush, but I have to call it like I see it. Although I'm pulling for him and wishing him the best, I think serious questions remain about his ability to make it back. Substantial velocity improvement in his next couple of outings would be a good place to start.

Other notes:

[+] Enlarge
Howard Smith/US PresswirePhil Humber allowed a single hit and two walks in seven innings Monday, striking out five.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-sox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/chw/chicago-white-sox')">Chicago White Sox starter http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28596/philip-humber">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28596/philip-humber')" jQuery1303839150881="30">Philip Humber is likely going to get some attention this morning after flirting with a no-hitter against the Yankees. He's basically tried to reinvent himself as a pitcher over the past year or so, throwing more changeups and adding a little bit of a cut fastball to his repertoire. He had a good changeup and two-seamer working against the Yanks, but despite his success, I'm still skeptical about his prospects for the balance of the season. I don't project the consistency to be there, especially with his command. I saw him twice late in spring training and didn't see anything noteworthy to predict any kind of breakout. I'm chalking it up as everything clicking for one start, not necessarily a new level of performance. That doesn't make him a consideration in mixed leagues.

• Owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN standard leagues, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies outfielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28920/seth-smith">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28920/seth-smith')" jQuery1303839150881="31">Seth Smith has more value to a squad than many think, especially against right-handed pitching. Over the past three seasons, Smith has put up a combined .869 OPS against righties, and a .939 mark thus far this season in a small sample size. If you adjust his output against right-handers since 2008 to a 550 at-bat stat line you come up with a player who hits .282 with 26 homers, 86 RBIs, 95 runs scored and six steals. Yes, you need to sit him against lefties if you can, but Smith can definitely still be an asset in mixed-league play, even more so if your league uses daily transactions that allow you to bench him when the Rockies are due to face a southpaw.

• As I mentioned on the podcast last week, I don't have any concerns about http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30376/daniel-hudson')" jQuery1303839150881="32">Daniel Hudson's slow start in the Diamondbacks' rotation. He's had some bumps in the road in his first four starts, but watching him pitch, I think he's going to be just fine for the long haul. For some reason he's struggled in the first inning of his outings, with more than half his earned runs allowed coming in the opening frame. Both his changeup and slider have their usual movement and look good, but he's having problems with fastball command right now, which has not normally been the case for him. The 92-95 mph velocity is right there, and while the 12 walks are somewhat surprising, the 26 strikeouts in 24⅓ innings show that Hudson is still having stretches of dominance when he gets past the early bumps. He has the capability of having much better fastball command and control, and we should start seeing that going forward, with better results coming with it.

Although he faces a tough assignment against the Phillies on Tuesday night, Hudson is a good "buy low" candidate in a trade or someone to scoop up quickly if he's been dropped. (For what it's worth, I was going to have an addendum here saying that goes for his rotation-mate http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28864/ian-kennedy">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28864/ian-kennedy')" jQuery1303839150881="33">Ian Kennedy as well, but I don't think his owners are worried anymore after he outdueled http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5353/cliff-lee">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5353/cliff-lee')" jQuery1303839150881="34">Cliff Lee on Monday night.)

Prospect talk.
Spoiler [+]
The early going has seen a number of moves to remove high-profile young players from MLB rosters. Here's a look at four such players who were recently demoted, plus one who was waived and claimed by another club, with an eye on what sank them and what they need to do to succeed the next time around.
[h3]Brett Cecil, LHP, and Jesse Litsch, RHP, Toronto[/h3]
fantasy_g_cecil_200.jpg

Getty ImagesThe worry for Brett Cecil starts with velocity.

Litsch was optioned this past Tuesday but will return tonight to replace Cecil, who was optioned over the weekend and seems less likely to make a quick, triumphant return. Litsch was sent out after losing the numbers game; his 2009 season was wiped out by Tommy John surgery, but two years off the operation, his stuff and command have returned to their pre-injury levels. Litsch will always pitch with a fringy fastball but has an above-average cutter and throws a ton of strikes, probably more a formula for survival than for success, but he should be a fourth or fifth starter even in the tough AL East.

Cecil's outlook, on the other hand, is a lot less rosy. A former reliever who was overworked in college but whom the Jays have handled very carefully since drafting him and converting him to the rotation, Cecil showed up this spring missing 2-3 mph off his fastball, which dropped it a full grade down to below average. To try to compensate, he's been throwing more off-speed pitches, mostly changeups and sliders, which can also be a sign that throwing those offerings bothers his arm less than throwing an all-out fastball does. (We saw the same with TCU left-hander Matt Purke this spring; he went to visit Dr. James Andrews last week due to soreness in his shoulder after weeks of denials that he had anything worse than a blister.) There's no word yet on a physical problem with Cecil, but loss of that much velocity is often a symptom of something wrong in the pitcher's arm. For Cecil to get back to the big leagues, he needs to throw harder, and that may mean getting healthy first.
[h3]Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, San Francisco[/h3]
Belt needed to come out of the chute very strongly to keep his roster spot, as he made the Opening Day roster solely because Cody Ross hit the DL. Belt's stat line wasn't pretty in his brief time in San Francisco, but he had some solid at-bats and at least showed that the plate discipline he had in 2010 might carry over to the majors (or at least that it wouldn't evaporate the moment he got to the show). He needs to be more aggressive in attacking pitchers' mistakes, especially when he's ahead in the count; FanGraphs shows him well below average against fastballs in the big leagues, but bat speed isn't a problem for Belt, and I think that's a function of his approach. It wouldn't hurt him to learn to play the outfield in Fresno rather than in San Francisco, but his return will be dictated by the Giants' needs more than anything else.
[h3]Brandon Wood, 3B, Pittsburgh[/h3]
Wood is a former first-round pick who finally wore out his welcome in Anaheim with eight punchouts in 14 major league at-bats this year against zero walks, consistent with his big league performance before this year. At this time in 2006, Wood looked like a budding superstar, coming off a season in which he hit 43 home runs in 130 games in high-A Rancho Cucamonga (a great hitters' park, but 25 of those 43 came on the road), after which he smacked an Arizona Fall League record 14 home runs in 29 games for Surprise. But Wood can't hit a major league breaking ball, and that problem leaves him guessing and swinging and missing at a lot of fastballs he could otherwise crush. That raw power is still there, and he's a solid athlete, but I'm unaware of any precedent for a hitter this befuddled by offspeed stuff figuring it out.
[h3]Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado[/h3]
I don't know about this one; Stewart never exhibited Wood's dislike of pitches with wrinkles, but he's devolved into a guess hitter in the majors, something that started in the second half of last year but accelerated this spring. He's always had a small hole on the inner half, but that became noticeably bigger this year and teams have begun pounding him on the inner half -- reflected in his horrible statistics against fastballs in his tiny sample this season (again from FanGraphs). One source I spoke with thought Stewart was suffering from a lack of confidence at the plate, which is as good an explanation as any given his history of both hitting fastballs and drawing a modicum of walks, but he'll also have to close that hole if he doesn't want to see a steady diet of heat on the inner third.

Piece on the last place teams.
Spoiler [+]
While September is the worst time of year to be in last place, it's not much more fun being there in April. If your team was expected to be a contender, it's painful to see your offseason plan unravel so quickly, and for rebuilding teams it is a signal to fans that there won't be any fairy tale runs this season.

However, it is still early in the season, which means that there's plenty of time for the also-rans to either turn their seasons around, or, if that's not in the cards, start moving toward long-term goals. So, what's in store for the current cellar dwellers? We examined each of them to find out.
[h3]Baltimore Orioles (8-12, 4½ games back)[/h3]
After a 6-1 start that had the Orioles in first place, the wheels came off the apple cart and the O's lost eight games in a row -- and 11 of 13 -- and find themselves in the familiar spot of last place.

While the team had expectations of finishing .500 or better after aggressively trading for Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy and signing Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, a little shot of reality isn't the worst thing for the franchise. The American League East is a tough division and the Orioles are not done rebuilding. Lee (.211/.294/.276) and Guerrero (.265/.265/.398) will play better than they have to this point, but their primary value to the Orioles remains what they can be traded for when that happens.

Reynolds and Hardy are still young enough for the Orioles to hang onto going forward (there are no big third base prospects on the horizon and blue-chip shortstop prospect Manny Machado is a few years away), so Baltimore's biggest priority going forward is to evaluate who it wants to keep long-term and who it should be shopping in July.
[h3]Chicago White Sox (9-14, 5 GB)[/h3]
One of the hardest things for a floundering team to do is nothing. While the White Sox have been disappointing this season, their biggest problem as a team is that there are only a few places that they can conceivably upgrade going forward. The starting lineup has only two players with an OPS+ over 100 (Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin), but the team is unlikely to be rewarded for making any changes for any player outside of Juan Pierre. Looking at the worst hitters so far, the ZiPS projection system sees Alex Rios being adequate going forward (.262/.316/.420) and Brent Morel at .265/.302/.389 the rest of the way. Assuming the team doesn't replace Pierre in left (it won't), there's not much to be done here other than stand pat and hope players like Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham start hitting like they're supposed to.
[h3]Seattle Mariners (8-15, 6½ GB)[/h3]
With practically everyone picking the Mariners for last place this year after a disastrous 2010, there are no surprises here. Chone Figgins still hasn't come around, hitting .160/.207/.247 so far, and after this and his terrible 2010 season, ZiPS has just about given up on him as a hitter (.253/.340/.313 rest-of-season projection). Players like Jack Cust and Jack Wilson should hit better, but it's not much use to the Mariners at this point.

The team's focus going forward needs to be cutting its losses on its older players wherever possible, clearing the way for prospects Dustin Ackley and Carlos Peguero by midseason. Even players like 25-year-old first baseman Mike Carp, who is unlikely to be a star but had 29 homers at Triple-A last year, have more of a future in Seattle than Cust and Co. It's time to start selling.
[h3]New York Mets (9-13, 6 GB)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/US PresswireThe Mets must decide whether or not to keep Jose Reyes.

Sandy Alderson knows quite a bit about building a franchise from his years in Oakland, which is a very good thing considering what a mess this organization is at the moment. The turmoil surrounding the entanglement of the Wilpons with the Madoffs has pretty much hamstrung the team when it comes to big-ticket moves and forced the team to stay on a rebuilding path.

The biggest problem the team faces the rest of the season is what to do with Jose Reyes. There is a good chance that draft pick compensation for free agents will be taken out of the next collective bargaining agreement when it's negotiated this winter, so the option of hanging onto Reyes and taking the compensation picks isn't as desirable as it would have been in the past. The Mets have to make a decision, and fast, whether they have the resources available to re-sign Reyes. If not, they have to move him. Complicating the decision is that because of the Madoff scandal the team might not even know whether or not it has enough available funds to retain Reyes.

It's not a pleasant process, but the Mets have a front office capable of getting the organization through this (very) rough patch.
[h3]Houston Astros (8-14, 4 GB)[/h3]
The Astros are in an interesting situation, as they are closer to first place than any of the other last-place teams but may in fact be the worst team in baseball. Like the Orioles, the Astros took too long to realize that they needed to rebuild, and while their minor league system has improved, it's still one of the weaker ones around. It's hard to predict what the Astros will do when the team is sold -- Baylor hurler turned shipping magnate Jim Crane is the front-runner to land the team -- but it's hard to see the Astros, as they are currently built, being able to make a serious run.

Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers are both signed for a few more years, but neither Hunter Pence nor Michael Bourn have long-term deals in place, and they're in the middle of their primes right now. They either need to be locked up soon or traded, as unpleasant as that might sound to a fanbase that's already seen Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman depart. Everything Houston does from here needs to be something that bolsters the farm system going forward. Hopefully, a Jeff Bagwell Cooperstown speech will ease the pain at some point.
[h3]San Diego Padres (9-14, 6½ GB)[/h3]
The 2011 version of the Friars is well on the way to matching the feat of the 1984 Pirates, who finished first in the NL in ERA but last place in the division thanks to a lousy lineup. The pitching staff has a 2.89 ERA this year, good enough for an ERA+ of 127, so it's not hard to figure out which part of the team is most responsible for the poor start.

Overall, the offense is hitting .209/.292/.312 this season and scoring less than three runs a game, poor numbers even for playing at Petco Park, a pitcher's best friend. The Padres' short-term replacements at first base, a combination of Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu, have been worse than even the worst pessimist could imagine, resulting in the Padres getting .120/.162/.185 out of the position so far. ZiPS sees other slow starters Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett being fine (.254/.334/.365 and .268/.335/.362, respectively), but the rest-of-season projections for Hawpe (.211/.316/.365) and Cantu (.246/.298/.384) are unacceptable at first base.

So, where do the Padres turn at first? Anthony Rizzo, acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is off to a torrid start for Triple-A Tucson, hitting .432/.494/.797 with seven homers in 18 games. Kyle Blanks is still recovering from Tommy John surgery in San Antonio, so Rizzo may be the team's best short-term solution in addition to being its best long-term one. The team doesn't want to rush Rizzo and is certainly looking at service time when calculating a call-up, but the Padres needs offense now and if they were planning on throwing in the towel for 2011, they would not have signed Hudson or traded for Bartlett.
 
Update of Brandon Webb.

Spoiler [+]
It's been more than two years since the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers' http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5455/brandon-webb">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5455/brandon-webb')" jQuery1303839150881="29">Brandon Webb pitched in a major league game (Opening Day 2009), and we're coming up on 21 months since he had shoulder surgery that August. Webb threw two innings at extended spring training in his first game action since some work at instructional league last year.

Let me cut to the chase: Even for a first outing in a long time, I expected more. Quite a bit more.

As I tweeted yesterday, the good news was that Webb needed just 16 pitches to work two clean innings against the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/sea/seattle-mariners')">Seattle Mariners' extended spring training team, throwing strikes on 13 of them. The bad news is in the following pitch chart of his outing.

First inning, Batter 1: 78 (mph) fastball (called strike), 80 fastball (broken-bat groundout to third)
First inning, Batter 2: 80 fastball (ball), 81 fastball (fly out to left)
First inning, Batter 3: 81 fastball (ball), 84 fastball (called), 69 curveball (swinging strike), 71 changeup (swinging strikeout)

Second inning, Batter 1: 79 fastball (ball), 80 fastball (foul), 80 fastball (groundout to short)
Second inning, Batter 2: 80 fastball (groundout to second)
Second inning, Batter 3: 79 fastball (called strike), 65 curveball (called strike), 82 fastball (foul), 71 changeup (groundout to the pitcher)

The area of concern is obvious: 12 fastballs -- one 84 mph, one 82, the rest 78-81. The Rangers' gun corroborated my gun readings in the first inning, and the Rangers used my numbers in the second when their gun malfunctioned. Like I said, I expected more this far removed from his surgery, even at this stage of his season. The sink was there on the fastball, but the velocity was not.

How did Webb feel the outing went?

"Better than expected actually," Webb said. "In the bullpen, I was all over the place, but I was throwing strikes, the movement was good, and two quick innings. Overall, I was real happy. I haven't been able to get up and down and pitch innings. I've been more about mass quantities [of pitches], like 60 pitches in one session. The up and down will be good."

After the outing, Webb was seen talking about his arm slot and release point with Rangers rehab pitching coordinator Keith Comstock. I asked Webb if he was concerned about his velocity at this stage.

"No, not right now," Webb said. "[Comstock] feels like there's more clicks in there, and I do too. I feel like there's definitely some more in there. I'm not too far off. 84 is a little low. When I was good I was probably 86-89, topping at 90 or so. If I can get back to 86-88 I think I'll be all right."

But can he get back there? At the very least that appears to be a serious question mark right now. I thought Webb's arm action looked stiff and restricted during the outing. Maybe there's a little more velocity in subsequent outings, as his arm gets a little looser, if it gets a little looser. Maybe.

Did Webb feel like he was going all out?

"Yeah, I felt like I was letting it go," Webb said. "Sometimes I don't let it go all the way fully for some reason, but for the most part I did."

The last game velocity we had for Webb were his instructional league outings at the end of 2010. At that time, he was at 78-82 mph in his first game, bumping up to 81-83 mph in subsequent outings. After the first one, another scout who was there told me he considered that velocity "scary" even at that stage of his rehab.

You really try to not to read too much into two innings of an extended spring training outing. However, it's been a long time since the surgery, and it's not just about what his radar readings are, but the lack of improvement in those readings since our last information seven months ago. Sitting 78-82 and topping at 84 may not seem like a long way from sitting in the high 80s and touching 90, but it is. Pitching is obviously not all about lighting up the gun, but Webb needs that velocity to make that sinker work the way we've come to expect. Webb's curve and changeup are also down by about the same amount in terms of his velocity, and his lazy curve was not a good pitch. The changeup action was solid.

Webb will throw a bullpen session on Wednesday, and then try to stretch out to three innings in a Saturday start. He's been very much an optimist throughout all of his rehab the past couple of years, but we still need to see a lot more here before we can get optimistic, as well. At the very least, Webb still appears to be a very long way off. The Rangers will give him all the time he needs and say there's no rush, but I have to call it like I see it. Although I'm pulling for him and wishing him the best, I think serious questions remain about his ability to make it back. Substantial velocity improvement in his next couple of outings would be a good place to start.

Other notes:

[+] Enlarge
Howard Smith/US PresswirePhil Humber allowed a single hit and two walks in seven innings Monday, striking out five.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chw/chicago-white-sox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/chw/chicago-white-sox')">Chicago White Sox starter http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28596/philip-humber">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28596/philip-humber')" jQuery1303839150881="30">Philip Humber is likely going to get some attention this morning after flirting with a no-hitter against the Yankees. He's basically tried to reinvent himself as a pitcher over the past year or so, throwing more changeups and adding a little bit of a cut fastball to his repertoire. He had a good changeup and two-seamer working against the Yanks, but despite his success, I'm still skeptical about his prospects for the balance of the season. I don't project the consistency to be there, especially with his command. I saw him twice late in spring training and didn't see anything noteworthy to predict any kind of breakout. I'm chalking it up as everything clicking for one start, not necessarily a new level of performance. That doesn't make him a consideration in mixed leagues.

• Owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN standard leagues, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies outfielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28920/seth-smith">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28920/seth-smith')" jQuery1303839150881="31">Seth Smith has more value to a squad than many think, especially against right-handed pitching. Over the past three seasons, Smith has put up a combined .869 OPS against righties, and a .939 mark thus far this season in a small sample size. If you adjust his output against right-handers since 2008 to a 550 at-bat stat line you come up with a player who hits .282 with 26 homers, 86 RBIs, 95 runs scored and six steals. Yes, you need to sit him against lefties if you can, but Smith can definitely still be an asset in mixed-league play, even more so if your league uses daily transactions that allow you to bench him when the Rockies are due to face a southpaw.

• As I mentioned on the podcast last week, I don't have any concerns about http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30376/daniel-hudson')" jQuery1303839150881="32">Daniel Hudson's slow start in the Diamondbacks' rotation. He's had some bumps in the road in his first four starts, but watching him pitch, I think he's going to be just fine for the long haul. For some reason he's struggled in the first inning of his outings, with more than half his earned runs allowed coming in the opening frame. Both his changeup and slider have their usual movement and look good, but he's having problems with fastball command right now, which has not normally been the case for him. The 92-95 mph velocity is right there, and while the 12 walks are somewhat surprising, the 26 strikeouts in 24⅓ innings show that Hudson is still having stretches of dominance when he gets past the early bumps. He has the capability of having much better fastball command and control, and we should start seeing that going forward, with better results coming with it.

Although he faces a tough assignment against the Phillies on Tuesday night, Hudson is a good "buy low" candidate in a trade or someone to scoop up quickly if he's been dropped. (For what it's worth, I was going to have an addendum here saying that goes for his rotation-mate http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28864/ian-kennedy">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28864/ian-kennedy')" jQuery1303839150881="33">Ian Kennedy as well, but I don't think his owners are worried anymore after he outdueled http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5353/cliff-lee">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5353/cliff-lee')" jQuery1303839150881="34">Cliff Lee on Monday night.)

Prospect talk.
Spoiler [+]
The early going has seen a number of moves to remove high-profile young players from MLB rosters. Here's a look at four such players who were recently demoted, plus one who was waived and claimed by another club, with an eye on what sank them and what they need to do to succeed the next time around.
[h3]Brett Cecil, LHP, and Jesse Litsch, RHP, Toronto[/h3]
fantasy_g_cecil_200.jpg

Getty ImagesThe worry for Brett Cecil starts with velocity.

Litsch was optioned this past Tuesday but will return tonight to replace Cecil, who was optioned over the weekend and seems less likely to make a quick, triumphant return. Litsch was sent out after losing the numbers game; his 2009 season was wiped out by Tommy John surgery, but two years off the operation, his stuff and command have returned to their pre-injury levels. Litsch will always pitch with a fringy fastball but has an above-average cutter and throws a ton of strikes, probably more a formula for survival than for success, but he should be a fourth or fifth starter even in the tough AL East.

Cecil's outlook, on the other hand, is a lot less rosy. A former reliever who was overworked in college but whom the Jays have handled very carefully since drafting him and converting him to the rotation, Cecil showed up this spring missing 2-3 mph off his fastball, which dropped it a full grade down to below average. To try to compensate, he's been throwing more off-speed pitches, mostly changeups and sliders, which can also be a sign that throwing those offerings bothers his arm less than throwing an all-out fastball does. (We saw the same with TCU left-hander Matt Purke this spring; he went to visit Dr. James Andrews last week due to soreness in his shoulder after weeks of denials that he had anything worse than a blister.) There's no word yet on a physical problem with Cecil, but loss of that much velocity is often a symptom of something wrong in the pitcher's arm. For Cecil to get back to the big leagues, he needs to throw harder, and that may mean getting healthy first.
[h3]Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, San Francisco[/h3]
Belt needed to come out of the chute very strongly to keep his roster spot, as he made the Opening Day roster solely because Cody Ross hit the DL. Belt's stat line wasn't pretty in his brief time in San Francisco, but he had some solid at-bats and at least showed that the plate discipline he had in 2010 might carry over to the majors (or at least that it wouldn't evaporate the moment he got to the show). He needs to be more aggressive in attacking pitchers' mistakes, especially when he's ahead in the count; FanGraphs shows him well below average against fastballs in the big leagues, but bat speed isn't a problem for Belt, and I think that's a function of his approach. It wouldn't hurt him to learn to play the outfield in Fresno rather than in San Francisco, but his return will be dictated by the Giants' needs more than anything else.
[h3]Brandon Wood, 3B, Pittsburgh[/h3]
Wood is a former first-round pick who finally wore out his welcome in Anaheim with eight punchouts in 14 major league at-bats this year against zero walks, consistent with his big league performance before this year. At this time in 2006, Wood looked like a budding superstar, coming off a season in which he hit 43 home runs in 130 games in high-A Rancho Cucamonga (a great hitters' park, but 25 of those 43 came on the road), after which he smacked an Arizona Fall League record 14 home runs in 29 games for Surprise. But Wood can't hit a major league breaking ball, and that problem leaves him guessing and swinging and missing at a lot of fastballs he could otherwise crush. That raw power is still there, and he's a solid athlete, but I'm unaware of any precedent for a hitter this befuddled by offspeed stuff figuring it out.
[h3]Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado[/h3]
I don't know about this one; Stewart never exhibited Wood's dislike of pitches with wrinkles, but he's devolved into a guess hitter in the majors, something that started in the second half of last year but accelerated this spring. He's always had a small hole on the inner half, but that became noticeably bigger this year and teams have begun pounding him on the inner half -- reflected in his horrible statistics against fastballs in his tiny sample this season (again from FanGraphs). One source I spoke with thought Stewart was suffering from a lack of confidence at the plate, which is as good an explanation as any given his history of both hitting fastballs and drawing a modicum of walks, but he'll also have to close that hole if he doesn't want to see a steady diet of heat on the inner third.

Piece on the last place teams.
Spoiler [+]
While September is the worst time of year to be in last place, it's not much more fun being there in April. If your team was expected to be a contender, it's painful to see your offseason plan unravel so quickly, and for rebuilding teams it is a signal to fans that there won't be any fairy tale runs this season.

However, it is still early in the season, which means that there's plenty of time for the also-rans to either turn their seasons around, or, if that's not in the cards, start moving toward long-term goals. So, what's in store for the current cellar dwellers? We examined each of them to find out.
[h3]Baltimore Orioles (8-12, 4½ games back)[/h3]
After a 6-1 start that had the Orioles in first place, the wheels came off the apple cart and the O's lost eight games in a row -- and 11 of 13 -- and find themselves in the familiar spot of last place.

While the team had expectations of finishing .500 or better after aggressively trading for Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy and signing Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, a little shot of reality isn't the worst thing for the franchise. The American League East is a tough division and the Orioles are not done rebuilding. Lee (.211/.294/.276) and Guerrero (.265/.265/.398) will play better than they have to this point, but their primary value to the Orioles remains what they can be traded for when that happens.

Reynolds and Hardy are still young enough for the Orioles to hang onto going forward (there are no big third base prospects on the horizon and blue-chip shortstop prospect Manny Machado is a few years away), so Baltimore's biggest priority going forward is to evaluate who it wants to keep long-term and who it should be shopping in July.
[h3]Chicago White Sox (9-14, 5 GB)[/h3]
One of the hardest things for a floundering team to do is nothing. While the White Sox have been disappointing this season, their biggest problem as a team is that there are only a few places that they can conceivably upgrade going forward. The starting lineup has only two players with an OPS+ over 100 (Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin), but the team is unlikely to be rewarded for making any changes for any player outside of Juan Pierre. Looking at the worst hitters so far, the ZiPS projection system sees Alex Rios being adequate going forward (.262/.316/.420) and Brent Morel at .265/.302/.389 the rest of the way. Assuming the team doesn't replace Pierre in left (it won't), there's not much to be done here other than stand pat and hope players like Adam Dunn and Gordon Beckham start hitting like they're supposed to.
[h3]Seattle Mariners (8-15, 6½ GB)[/h3]
With practically everyone picking the Mariners for last place this year after a disastrous 2010, there are no surprises here. Chone Figgins still hasn't come around, hitting .160/.207/.247 so far, and after this and his terrible 2010 season, ZiPS has just about given up on him as a hitter (.253/.340/.313 rest-of-season projection). Players like Jack Cust and Jack Wilson should hit better, but it's not much use to the Mariners at this point.

The team's focus going forward needs to be cutting its losses on its older players wherever possible, clearing the way for prospects Dustin Ackley and Carlos Peguero by midseason. Even players like 25-year-old first baseman Mike Carp, who is unlikely to be a star but had 29 homers at Triple-A last year, have more of a future in Seattle than Cust and Co. It's time to start selling.
[h3]New York Mets (9-13, 6 GB)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/US PresswireThe Mets must decide whether or not to keep Jose Reyes.

Sandy Alderson knows quite a bit about building a franchise from his years in Oakland, which is a very good thing considering what a mess this organization is at the moment. The turmoil surrounding the entanglement of the Wilpons with the Madoffs has pretty much hamstrung the team when it comes to big-ticket moves and forced the team to stay on a rebuilding path.

The biggest problem the team faces the rest of the season is what to do with Jose Reyes. There is a good chance that draft pick compensation for free agents will be taken out of the next collective bargaining agreement when it's negotiated this winter, so the option of hanging onto Reyes and taking the compensation picks isn't as desirable as it would have been in the past. The Mets have to make a decision, and fast, whether they have the resources available to re-sign Reyes. If not, they have to move him. Complicating the decision is that because of the Madoff scandal the team might not even know whether or not it has enough available funds to retain Reyes.

It's not a pleasant process, but the Mets have a front office capable of getting the organization through this (very) rough patch.
[h3]Houston Astros (8-14, 4 GB)[/h3]
The Astros are in an interesting situation, as they are closer to first place than any of the other last-place teams but may in fact be the worst team in baseball. Like the Orioles, the Astros took too long to realize that they needed to rebuild, and while their minor league system has improved, it's still one of the weaker ones around. It's hard to predict what the Astros will do when the team is sold -- Baylor hurler turned shipping magnate Jim Crane is the front-runner to land the team -- but it's hard to see the Astros, as they are currently built, being able to make a serious run.

Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers are both signed for a few more years, but neither Hunter Pence nor Michael Bourn have long-term deals in place, and they're in the middle of their primes right now. They either need to be locked up soon or traded, as unpleasant as that might sound to a fanbase that's already seen Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman depart. Everything Houston does from here needs to be something that bolsters the farm system going forward. Hopefully, a Jeff Bagwell Cooperstown speech will ease the pain at some point.
[h3]San Diego Padres (9-14, 6½ GB)[/h3]
The 2011 version of the Friars is well on the way to matching the feat of the 1984 Pirates, who finished first in the NL in ERA but last place in the division thanks to a lousy lineup. The pitching staff has a 2.89 ERA this year, good enough for an ERA+ of 127, so it's not hard to figure out which part of the team is most responsible for the poor start.

Overall, the offense is hitting .209/.292/.312 this season and scoring less than three runs a game, poor numbers even for playing at Petco Park, a pitcher's best friend. The Padres' short-term replacements at first base, a combination of Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu, have been worse than even the worst pessimist could imagine, resulting in the Padres getting .120/.162/.185 out of the position so far. ZiPS sees other slow starters Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett being fine (.254/.334/.365 and .268/.335/.362, respectively), but the rest-of-season projections for Hawpe (.211/.316/.365) and Cantu (.246/.298/.384) are unacceptable at first base.

So, where do the Padres turn at first? Anthony Rizzo, acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, is off to a torrid start for Triple-A Tucson, hitting .432/.494/.797 with seven homers in 18 games. Kyle Blanks is still recovering from Tommy John surgery in San Antonio, so Rizzo may be the team's best short-term solution in addition to being its best long-term one. The team doesn't want to rush Rizzo and is certainly looking at service time when calculating a call-up, but the Padres needs offense now and if they were planning on throwing in the towel for 2011, they would not have signed Hudson or traded for Bartlett.
 
Know there are a bunch of Manny guys here on this board, great article in the Times today about him in high school

http://www.nytimes.com/20...ts/baseball/26manny.html

Anyone who grew up playing baseball in NYC knows Manny is a mythical legend for kids who play ball.  An ump swore to me once that Manny hit the Pathmark from near the Murray Bergtraum feels which must be like 600 feet
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Know there are a bunch of Manny guys here on this board, great article in the Times today about him in high school

http://www.nytimes.com/20...ts/baseball/26manny.html

Anyone who grew up playing baseball in NYC knows Manny is a mythical legend for kids who play ball.  An ump swore to me once that Manny hit the Pathmark from near the Murray Bergtraum feels which must be like 600 feet
laugh.gif
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

CP, which side of the Ichiro argument were you on?


He's an overrated hitter, maybe the most overrated ever. He slaps singles to get his 200, doesn't drive in runs, won't bat third so he can get the extra at bats to slap 75 foot infield singles while his team struggles year after year to score runs. If he hit .285 but added some RBI's and a few extra base hits they'd be better for it.
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

CP, which side of the Ichiro argument were you on?


He's an overrated hitter, maybe the most overrated ever. He slaps singles to get his 200, doesn't drive in runs, won't bat third so he can get the extra at bats to slap 75 foot infield singles while his team struggles year after year to score runs. If he hit .285 but added some RBI's and a few extra base hits they'd be better for it.
 
A simple "I didn't like him side" would have sufficed
laugh.gif


I bring that up because Starlin kinda reminds me of him.
 
A simple "I didn't like him side" would have sufficed
laugh.gif


I bring that up because Starlin kinda reminds me of him.
 
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