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One of my good friends is playing for the Shorebirds and he played against Harper this week. I'll hit him up tomorrow to get his impressions.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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MINNEAPOLIS -- Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew says he will no longer fight esophageal cancer and is settling in for the final days of his life.
The Minnesota Twins released a statement on Friday from Killebrew, who was diagnosed with the disease in December.
“
It is with profound sadness that I share with you that my continued battle with esophageal cancer is coming to an end.
- 15,437
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- Dec 29, 2007
MINNEAPOLIS -- Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew says he will no longer fight esophageal cancer and is settling in for the final days of his life.
The Minnesota Twins released a statement on Friday from Killebrew, who was diagnosed with the disease in December.
“
It is with profound sadness that I share with you that my continued battle with esophageal cancer is coming to an end.
Piece on San Fran.
Revolution of the stolen base.
The "new" Adrian Gonzalez.
Top 10 Mock Draft.
Spoiler [+]
Every day, Nate Schierholtz plays catch with Aaron Rowand, and after they get loose, they play a game in which they pretend to throw out runners with one-hop throws. From 150 feet, they cut loose, and if their partner has to move to catch a throw, well, the imaginary runner is safe.
Getty ImagesThe Giants have survived despite a lack of runs.
But if they can make a perfect throw -- a one-bounce throw right to the glove, and the partner doesn't move -- the runner is out. Rowand and Schierholtz do this day after day after day to prepare for a play that might come up in a big spot.
Such as on Thursday, with two outs in the top of the third inning. Gerardo Parra of the Diamondbacks clubbed a line drive to right-center field toward the wall in AT&T Park, which is a mathematician's dream with its geometry of angles. "He turned on it pretty well," Schierholtz said on the phone after the game. "I knew it was over my head."
Every day during batting practice before home games, Schierholtz likes to practice tracking balls off the bats of a teammate rather than from a coach with a fungo bat because it is a much truer read -- the ball comes from the plate at high velocity. This way, Schierholtz can develop a feel for how the ball will come off the brick or screening.
So he raced toward the fence, using an angle that allowed him to take the ball squarely off an angled portion of the wall perfectly; the ball ricocheted off a State Farm sign right to Schierholtz. "I got a good carom off the wall and threw blindly toward the infield," he said.
But remember: Schierholtz makes this throw every day in the drills he does with Rowand. For Schierholtz, this kind of play has become ingrained in his muscle memory.
Schierholtz rocketed the ball toward second base. It skipped once, low, and directly into the glove of shortstop Miguel Tejada, who snapped a tag down on the feet of the sliding Parra -- and Parra looked up at the umpire as if to say, "You gotta be kidding me."
Looking confused, Parra glanced over at Schierholtz and mouthed: "Wow." And when Schierholtz came to bat in the next half-inning, Arizona catcher Miguel Montero mentioned the throw as well.
Schierholtz's play was the No. 1 Web Gem from Thursday. As it should be. It was a throw to remember, writes Steve Kroner. The Giants closed out what was a perfect homestand for them, and as you look up at the standings Friday, San Francisco -- despite all of its offensive issues with Tejada and Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff -- is in first place.
• Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling and, more specifically, Ubaldo Jimenez seems no closer to solving his problems than he was in August. He is on the losing side of a head game right now, writes Mark Kiszla.
• Zach Britton is making a strong case for himself for the AL All-Star team. He shut down the Mariners for nine innings Thursday but didn't get the win; the O's won in extra innings, Jeff Zrebiec writes. Right now, Britton probably has an edge over impressive Mariners pitcher Michael Pineda for AL Rookie of the Year:
Britton: 5-2, 2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a .203 batting average for opponents
Pineda: 4-2, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, a .221 batting average for opponents
From Michael Trainor of ESPN Stats & Information: How Britton blanked the Mariners (in a no-decision): He changed it up. Britton is known for his hard sinker, but it was the changeup that did the most damage Thursday. The O's lefty threw 24 changeups, 22 for strikes (91.7 strike percentage), and the M's swung at 20 of them. The Mariners were 1-for-10 (.100) with four strikeouts (of Britton's five) in at-bats ending with the change. On the season, opposing hitters are 4-for-36 (.111) in at-bats ending on changeups against Britton. He is among the AL leaders in strike percentage with the change:
Jered Weaver: 76.5
Bartolo Colon: 75.8
Jo-Jo Reyes: 73.8
Jesse Litsch: 73.4
Zach Britton: 73.0
His other pitches weren't bad, either. The Mariners were 1-for-8 (.125) in at-bats ending with the sinker and 1-for-10 (.100) against the fastball. Britton posted a high strike percentage (70.4, 76 of 108 pitches) and swing percentage (54.6, 59 of 108 pitches), both of which were career highs.
From Elias: The last time both team's starting pitchers (Britton and Jason Vargas) finished with a pitching line of at least nine innings pitched and no runs allowed: July 10, 2010 -- Cincinnati (Travis Wood) at Philadelphia (Roy Halladay). Both pitched exactly nine innings.
• In a season in which teams are scratching for runs and general managers are scanning other teams' rosters and trying to identify players who could be potential trade targets, Carlos Beltran is developing into a very interesting option. He slammed three homers on Thursday and is hitting .295 with eight homers, a .387 on-base percentage and a .590 slugging percentage.
Beltran, who's eligible for free agency in the fall, is making a whopping $18.5 million this year, and it will be interesting to see how his salary plays into other teams' pursuit of him. Last year, only two teams -- the Rangers and the Yankees -- spent $5 million or more in midseason additions. If Beltran were to be traded at midseason without the Mets kicking in any money, his next team would be on the hook for $9 million.
Presumably, the Mets will wind up kicking in some money to offset the salary, but the better that Beltran plays, the better his trade value will be as one of the very few available position players who could be a difference-maker. New York could wind up getting a decent prospect in return for him if he continues to play this well.
From Stats & Info: Beltran became the eighth Met to hit three home runs in a game -- and the first since Jose Reyes in 2006. Two of his home runs Thursday came off pitches that were up and away. Of his eight home runs this season, half have come on pitches in that location. Since 2008, Beltran is hitting .325 and slugging .695, and has belted 14 home runs on pitches up and away. The 14 homers are the most he has hit among the nine pitch locations even though he has seen more pitches in two other spots: down and away and down and in.
Beltran is the first player this season with a three-homer game. Last year, there were 13 such games. The last four players to hit three or more home runs in a game at Coors Field were visitors. Dustin Pedroia was the most recent, in 2010. From Elias: Carlos Beltran homered to all three fields (left, center, right). The only player to do that in one game last season was Adam Dunn.
• Andrew McCutchen was benched on Thursday, and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle delivered the first "wow" moment of his tenure, writes Ron Cook.
• It was a big day for the Class A Clearwater Threshers, who had three big leaguers in their lineup -- pitcher Roy Oswalt, second baseman Chase Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz. Oswalt struggled with his velocity, writes Matt Gelb. Oswalt's fastball was an issue, writes Bill Conlin. Ruiz's rehab is important partly because of the injury to Brad Schneider.
• Ever since Bryce Harper was fitted with contact lenses, he's been killing the ball. From Dave Sheinin's story:
1. Fred Wilpon is feeling good about the progress in the sale of Mets shares.
2. Major League Baseball will do its due diligence in examining the Dodgers' financial records, regardless of Frank McCourt's preferred timeline.
3. Scott Boras will advise against Eric Hosmer working out a long-term deal right now.
Because, after all, what person in their early 20s would ever want to guarantee himself tens of millions of dollars? The advice belongs to Boras. The risk falls entirely in Hosmer's.
4. An experiment at second base has paid off for the Cardinals.
5. Nolan Ryan is officially in control of the Rangers.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. J.P. Howell continues to make progress in his injury rehab. Perhaps as soon as next week, the Rays' bullpen -- which has been better than expected despite being rebuilt -- will have the one element it lacks: an experienced lefty. When you're in a division with Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Carl Crawford, Howell figures to be a very important weapon.
2. Ike Davis was placed on the disabled list.
3. Robinson Cano is OK after getting hit in the head.
4. Grady Sizemore is going to be cautious with his knee.
5. Jason Heyward got a cortisone shot.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Wizard of Hoz propelled the Royals to their first series win in Yankee Stadium since 1999. Eric Hosmer mashed homers in each of the last two games of this series. In just a year under Ned Yost, anything seems possible.
2. I watched a lot of Jordan Zimmermann's mostly dominant outing against the Braves on Thursday, and he deserved a better fate; he pitched a great game.
3. It was a big win for the Braves, who needed to stop the bleeding; Brian McCann got a walk-off hit after Martin Prado mashed a grand slam.
4. The Yankees lost an ugly game.
5. The Indians couldn't dent James Shields.
6. Jaime Garcia was excellent again. From Mr. Trainor, how Garcia beat the Cubs:
• Once again, the Cubs were aggressive early in the count against Garcia. Of the 53 pitches they saw in the first two pitches of an at-bat, they swung at 25 of them (47.2 percentage), the second-highest percentage against Garcia in his short career. The only time an opponent swung more often early in the count was the Cubs in September, Garcia's only other start against them.
• When the Cubs were patient against Garcia, he dominated. Eight of their nine hits came during the first two pitches of an at-bat. In at-bats ending in counts other than the first two pitches, the Cubs were 1-for-12, including 0-for-7 with two strikes.
• Garcia went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw seven sliders among his 15 pitches with two strikes (46.7 percent), well above his season average of 33.9 percent. Three of Garcia's four strikeouts came on his slider.
Getty ImagesThe Giants have survived despite a lack of runs.
But if they can make a perfect throw -- a one-bounce throw right to the glove, and the partner doesn't move -- the runner is out. Rowand and Schierholtz do this day after day after day to prepare for a play that might come up in a big spot.
Such as on Thursday, with two outs in the top of the third inning. Gerardo Parra of the Diamondbacks clubbed a line drive to right-center field toward the wall in AT&T Park, which is a mathematician's dream with its geometry of angles. "He turned on it pretty well," Schierholtz said on the phone after the game. "I knew it was over my head."
Every day during batting practice before home games, Schierholtz likes to practice tracking balls off the bats of a teammate rather than from a coach with a fungo bat because it is a much truer read -- the ball comes from the plate at high velocity. This way, Schierholtz can develop a feel for how the ball will come off the brick or screening.
So he raced toward the fence, using an angle that allowed him to take the ball squarely off an angled portion of the wall perfectly; the ball ricocheted off a State Farm sign right to Schierholtz. "I got a good carom off the wall and threw blindly toward the infield," he said.
But remember: Schierholtz makes this throw every day in the drills he does with Rowand. For Schierholtz, this kind of play has become ingrained in his muscle memory.
Schierholtz rocketed the ball toward second base. It skipped once, low, and directly into the glove of shortstop Miguel Tejada, who snapped a tag down on the feet of the sliding Parra -- and Parra looked up at the umpire as if to say, "You gotta be kidding me."
Looking confused, Parra glanced over at Schierholtz and mouthed: "Wow." And when Schierholtz came to bat in the next half-inning, Arizona catcher Miguel Montero mentioned the throw as well.
Schierholtz's play was the No. 1 Web Gem from Thursday. As it should be. It was a throw to remember, writes Steve Kroner. The Giants closed out what was a perfect homestand for them, and as you look up at the standings Friday, San Francisco -- despite all of its offensive issues with Tejada and Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff -- is in first place.
• Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling and, more specifically, Ubaldo Jimenez seems no closer to solving his problems than he was in August. He is on the losing side of a head game right now, writes Mark Kiszla.
• Zach Britton is making a strong case for himself for the AL All-Star team. He shut down the Mariners for nine innings Thursday but didn't get the win; the O's won in extra innings, Jeff Zrebiec writes. Right now, Britton probably has an edge over impressive Mariners pitcher Michael Pineda for AL Rookie of the Year:
Britton: 5-2, 2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a .203 batting average for opponents
Pineda: 4-2, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, a .221 batting average for opponents
From Michael Trainor of ESPN Stats & Information: How Britton blanked the Mariners (in a no-decision): He changed it up. Britton is known for his hard sinker, but it was the changeup that did the most damage Thursday. The O's lefty threw 24 changeups, 22 for strikes (91.7 strike percentage), and the M's swung at 20 of them. The Mariners were 1-for-10 (.100) with four strikeouts (of Britton's five) in at-bats ending with the change. On the season, opposing hitters are 4-for-36 (.111) in at-bats ending on changeups against Britton. He is among the AL leaders in strike percentage with the change:
Jered Weaver: 76.5
Bartolo Colon: 75.8
Jo-Jo Reyes: 73.8
Jesse Litsch: 73.4
Zach Britton: 73.0
His other pitches weren't bad, either. The Mariners were 1-for-8 (.125) in at-bats ending with the sinker and 1-for-10 (.100) against the fastball. Britton posted a high strike percentage (70.4, 76 of 108 pitches) and swing percentage (54.6, 59 of 108 pitches), both of which were career highs.
From Elias: The last time both team's starting pitchers (Britton and Jason Vargas) finished with a pitching line of at least nine innings pitched and no runs allowed: July 10, 2010 -- Cincinnati (Travis Wood) at Philadelphia (Roy Halladay). Both pitched exactly nine innings.
• In a season in which teams are scratching for runs and general managers are scanning other teams' rosters and trying to identify players who could be potential trade targets, Carlos Beltran is developing into a very interesting option. He slammed three homers on Thursday and is hitting .295 with eight homers, a .387 on-base percentage and a .590 slugging percentage.
Beltran, who's eligible for free agency in the fall, is making a whopping $18.5 million this year, and it will be interesting to see how his salary plays into other teams' pursuit of him. Last year, only two teams -- the Rangers and the Yankees -- spent $5 million or more in midseason additions. If Beltran were to be traded at midseason without the Mets kicking in any money, his next team would be on the hook for $9 million.
Presumably, the Mets will wind up kicking in some money to offset the salary, but the better that Beltran plays, the better his trade value will be as one of the very few available position players who could be a difference-maker. New York could wind up getting a decent prospect in return for him if he continues to play this well.
From Stats & Info: Beltran became the eighth Met to hit three home runs in a game -- and the first since Jose Reyes in 2006. Two of his home runs Thursday came off pitches that were up and away. Of his eight home runs this season, half have come on pitches in that location. Since 2008, Beltran is hitting .325 and slugging .695, and has belted 14 home runs on pitches up and away. The 14 homers are the most he has hit among the nine pitch locations even though he has seen more pitches in two other spots: down and away and down and in.
Beltran is the first player this season with a three-homer game. Last year, there were 13 such games. The last four players to hit three or more home runs in a game at Coors Field were visitors. Dustin Pedroia was the most recent, in 2010. From Elias: Carlos Beltran homered to all three fields (left, center, right). The only player to do that in one game last season was Adam Dunn.
• Andrew McCutchen was benched on Thursday, and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle delivered the first "wow" moment of his tenure, writes Ron Cook.
• It was a big day for the Class A Clearwater Threshers, who had three big leaguers in their lineup -- pitcher Roy Oswalt, second baseman Chase Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz. Oswalt struggled with his velocity, writes Matt Gelb. Oswalt's fastball was an issue, writes Bill Conlin. Ruiz's rehab is important partly because of the injury to Brad Schneider.
• Ever since Bryce Harper was fitted with contact lenses, he's been killing the ball. From Dave Sheinin's story:
- Suffice it to say Harper's hi-def vision is a huge upgrade over standard-def. In 20 games since his visit to the eye doctor, Harper is hitting .480 (36 for 75) with a .547 on-base percentage and an .893 slugging percentage -- with 7 homers, 10 doubles and 23 RBI. For the season, he is hitting .395/.473/.702, leading the league in all three "slash-line" categories.
1. Fred Wilpon is feeling good about the progress in the sale of Mets shares.
2. Major League Baseball will do its due diligence in examining the Dodgers' financial records, regardless of Frank McCourt's preferred timeline.
3. Scott Boras will advise against Eric Hosmer working out a long-term deal right now.
Because, after all, what person in their early 20s would ever want to guarantee himself tens of millions of dollars? The advice belongs to Boras. The risk falls entirely in Hosmer's.
4. An experiment at second base has paid off for the Cardinals.
5. Nolan Ryan is officially in control of the Rangers.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. J.P. Howell continues to make progress in his injury rehab. Perhaps as soon as next week, the Rays' bullpen -- which has been better than expected despite being rebuilt -- will have the one element it lacks: an experienced lefty. When you're in a division with Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Carl Crawford, Howell figures to be a very important weapon.
2. Ike Davis was placed on the disabled list.
3. Robinson Cano is OK after getting hit in the head.
4. Grady Sizemore is going to be cautious with his knee.
5. Jason Heyward got a cortisone shot.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Wizard of Hoz propelled the Royals to their first series win in Yankee Stadium since 1999. Eric Hosmer mashed homers in each of the last two games of this series. In just a year under Ned Yost, anything seems possible.
2. I watched a lot of Jordan Zimmermann's mostly dominant outing against the Braves on Thursday, and he deserved a better fate; he pitched a great game.
3. It was a big win for the Braves, who needed to stop the bleeding; Brian McCann got a walk-off hit after Martin Prado mashed a grand slam.
4. The Yankees lost an ugly game.
5. The Indians couldn't dent James Shields.
6. Jaime Garcia was excellent again. From Mr. Trainor, how Garcia beat the Cubs:
• Once again, the Cubs were aggressive early in the count against Garcia. Of the 53 pitches they saw in the first two pitches of an at-bat, they swung at 25 of them (47.2 percentage), the second-highest percentage against Garcia in his short career. The only time an opponent swung more often early in the count was the Cubs in September, Garcia's only other start against them.
• When the Cubs were patient against Garcia, he dominated. Eight of their nine hits came during the first two pitches of an at-bat. In at-bats ending in counts other than the first two pitches, the Cubs were 1-for-12, including 0-for-7 with two strikes.
• Garcia went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw seven sliders among his 15 pitches with two strikes (46.7 percent), well above his season average of 33.9 percent. Three of Garcia's four strikeouts came on his slider.
Revolution of the stolen base.
Spoiler [+]
After a surprising number of low-scoring games and a flurry of no-hitters, the 2010 season was quickly christened the "Year of the Pitcher," but if 2011's early returns are any indication, the pundits may have spoken too soon.
Scoring is down for the fifth consecutive season, and not by a little: On average, teams scored over a quarter of a run less per game this April than they did last April, and unless offense picks up significantly over the next few weeks, this May will be the first full month since July 1992 in which the average team scored fewer than four runs per game.
The effects of the offensive drought have been felt in a number of highly visible ways. One of the most notable is the increase of stolen base attempts. After falling out of favor during the offensive explosion of the PED era, the stolen base is back in vogue, and certain teams are taking far more advantage of the phenomenon than others.
Baseball ProspectusWhen runs are scarce, there's more incentive to try to steal bases.
It's not hard to see why steals are on the rise. Sabermetricians often talk about the "break-even point," the point at which the likelihood of a successful steal justifies the risk of getting caught. A copious base thief who gets thrown out often isn't actually helping his team with his wheels, since he's doing more damage by getting erased. As this graph of runs per game and break-even point over the past 30 years suggests, the two tend to move in tandem.
As scoring decreases, so does the penalty associated with getting caught stealing; since runners are less likely to be driven in by batters who follow them when hits are few and far between, they have less to lose by getting erased. Earlier this decade, the break-even point hovered in the neighborhood of 70 percent. Thanks to this season's low run totals, that figure has fallen to approximately 66.5 percent, a value straight out of the go-go '80s, the decade that helped speedsters such as Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman join deadball era stars such as Sliding Billy Hamilton, Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins at the top of the all-time stolen base leaderboard. And with fewer disincentives to run, runners have been taking off in a higher percentage of their opportunities.
Check out the second graph, which shows stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities. So if 200 players reach first base without a runner blocking their way and 10 of them attempt a steal, that's a 5 percent rate.
Baseball ProspectusStolen base attempts have steadily been on the rise over the last few seasons.
Since the offensive drought also means fewer runners are reaching base, the full impact of that rate hike might not register in the raw totals. Still, the increase from last year's rate to this year's rate would result in roughly 600 more steals over a full season, given the same number of opportunities.
Confronted with an offensive environment in which pitchers are increasingly in command, it might be only natural for teams to conclude that if they can't beat them they might as well join them by procuring better pitchers and defenders. However, while frequent 11-10 slugfests are, at least temporarily, a thing of the past, investing in the appreciating stolen base offers is one way to make the most of the meager opportunities allowed by opposing hurlers.
Some teams are better positioned than others to take advantage of this brave new world. The table below lists the teams that have derived the most and least value in terms of expected wins from the steal this season.
[h4]Thieves In The Night[/h4]
The Padres are benefiting the most from stolen bases, while the White Sox's slow start can partially be blamed on getting caught.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]0.92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]0.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.40[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]-0.33[/td][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]-0.36[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]-0.48[/td][/tr][/table]
It comes as little surprise the Padres are excelling here, since they're the team most in need of offensive assistance. Petco Park suppresses scoring to such a degree that playing there this season has been like taking a time warp back to 1968. During the original "Year of the Pitcher," 3.41 runs were scored per game in the majors, while the Padres and their opponents have combined for an average of 3.47 per game in Petco this season. As a result, the Padres' personal break-even point is even lower than the league's, and the team has been taking advantage of that license to steal, led by Orlando Hudson -- who racked up 10 steals, already equaling his single-season career high, before hitting the DL with a hamstring strain -- Will Venable and offseason imports Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett.
The Royals, who are leading the majors in larceny, have gotten the bulk of their steals from their least productive bats: Mike Aviles, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Getz and Alcides Escobar have combined for a .238/.291/.348 line and 28 swipes. With slash lines like those, these players are running not just for the Royals' sake, but for their major league lives. The Nationals have impressed on the basepaths not only via the steal but in seizing every possible opportunity to take an extra base; even after excluding the benefits they've gotten from stealing, they lead the majors in BRR (baserunning runs), a Baseball Prospectus stat that takes into account all baserunning advances, not just those that come via the steal. (The Braves and Cardinals, who have shown poor stolen base results, rank last and second-to-last, respectively, in non-steal BRR.) The surprisingly successful Indians and perpetually speedy Rays just missed joining the positive entries in the table above.
The White Sox owe their poor showing to the play of Juan Pierre. He is baseball's active steals leader, with 533 swipes to his name, but he's been running his team out of innings this season, stealing successfully in only six out of 14 attempts. Even a reduced break-even point couldn't make that sort of ratio acceptable, but Ozzie Guillen continues to give his struggling speedster the green light nonetheless.
[h4]Gunning 'Em Down[/h4]
The Nats have done the best job of gunning down runners. The Angels, however, should reconsider whether Jeff Mathis' defense is as good as his reputation.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.43[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.35[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]0.22[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]-0.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]-0.55[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]-0.56[/td][/tr][/table]
There are two sides to the stolen base coin. Just as the steal's increased value rewards an offense that employs it as a weapon, so can improved resistance to opponents' attempts benefit a battery. Pitchers and catchers who limit the running game stand to receive the same extra credit in today's steal-oriented game as players who leverage their legs for added offensive value. Listed to the right are the teams that have done the best and worst jobs of preventing opposing teams from striking via the steal.
The Nationals have been as adept at putting a damper on the opposition's running game as they have at igniting their own. Ivan Rodriguez's bat has wilted with age, but his arm remains strong. He and Wilson Ramos have each gunned down 36 percent of opposing base stealers. Oakland's Kurt Suzuki leads the league with a 51 percent rate that wouldn't have looked out of place in Pudge's prime.
Despite his superb defensive reputation, the Angels' Jeff Mathis has never been particularly adept at cutting down runners, and this year he's been spelled behind the plate by Hank Conger, who hasn't excelled in that area, either. The Mariners' Miguel Olivo has a solid 35 percent career caught stealing rate but has slipped to 17 percent this season. The Phillies' Carlos Ruiz comes in at a mere 13 percent, slightly worse than Jason Varitek's 16 percent.
Scoring could rebound just as quickly and mysteriously as it has subsided, so the steal's potency isn't necessarily here to stay. However, teams that learn to love the steal while runs are scarce stand to benefit in a new way from an old weapon.
Scoring is down for the fifth consecutive season, and not by a little: On average, teams scored over a quarter of a run less per game this April than they did last April, and unless offense picks up significantly over the next few weeks, this May will be the first full month since July 1992 in which the average team scored fewer than four runs per game.
The effects of the offensive drought have been felt in a number of highly visible ways. One of the most notable is the increase of stolen base attempts. After falling out of favor during the offensive explosion of the PED era, the stolen base is back in vogue, and certain teams are taking far more advantage of the phenomenon than others.
Baseball ProspectusWhen runs are scarce, there's more incentive to try to steal bases.
It's not hard to see why steals are on the rise. Sabermetricians often talk about the "break-even point," the point at which the likelihood of a successful steal justifies the risk of getting caught. A copious base thief who gets thrown out often isn't actually helping his team with his wheels, since he's doing more damage by getting erased. As this graph of runs per game and break-even point over the past 30 years suggests, the two tend to move in tandem.
As scoring decreases, so does the penalty associated with getting caught stealing; since runners are less likely to be driven in by batters who follow them when hits are few and far between, they have less to lose by getting erased. Earlier this decade, the break-even point hovered in the neighborhood of 70 percent. Thanks to this season's low run totals, that figure has fallen to approximately 66.5 percent, a value straight out of the go-go '80s, the decade that helped speedsters such as Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman join deadball era stars such as Sliding Billy Hamilton, Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins at the top of the all-time stolen base leaderboard. And with fewer disincentives to run, runners have been taking off in a higher percentage of their opportunities.
Check out the second graph, which shows stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities. So if 200 players reach first base without a runner blocking their way and 10 of them attempt a steal, that's a 5 percent rate.
Baseball ProspectusStolen base attempts have steadily been on the rise over the last few seasons.
Since the offensive drought also means fewer runners are reaching base, the full impact of that rate hike might not register in the raw totals. Still, the increase from last year's rate to this year's rate would result in roughly 600 more steals over a full season, given the same number of opportunities.
Confronted with an offensive environment in which pitchers are increasingly in command, it might be only natural for teams to conclude that if they can't beat them they might as well join them by procuring better pitchers and defenders. However, while frequent 11-10 slugfests are, at least temporarily, a thing of the past, investing in the appreciating stolen base offers is one way to make the most of the meager opportunities allowed by opposing hurlers.
Some teams are better positioned than others to take advantage of this brave new world. The table below lists the teams that have derived the most and least value in terms of expected wins from the steal this season.
[h4]Thieves In The Night[/h4]
The Padres are benefiting the most from stolen bases, while the White Sox's slow start can partially be blamed on getting caught.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]0.92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]0.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.40[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]-0.33[/td][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]-0.36[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]-0.48[/td][/tr][/table]
It comes as little surprise the Padres are excelling here, since they're the team most in need of offensive assistance. Petco Park suppresses scoring to such a degree that playing there this season has been like taking a time warp back to 1968. During the original "Year of the Pitcher," 3.41 runs were scored per game in the majors, while the Padres and their opponents have combined for an average of 3.47 per game in Petco this season. As a result, the Padres' personal break-even point is even lower than the league's, and the team has been taking advantage of that license to steal, led by Orlando Hudson -- who racked up 10 steals, already equaling his single-season career high, before hitting the DL with a hamstring strain -- Will Venable and offseason imports Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett.
The Royals, who are leading the majors in larceny, have gotten the bulk of their steals from their least productive bats: Mike Aviles, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Getz and Alcides Escobar have combined for a .238/.291/.348 line and 28 swipes. With slash lines like those, these players are running not just for the Royals' sake, but for their major league lives. The Nationals have impressed on the basepaths not only via the steal but in seizing every possible opportunity to take an extra base; even after excluding the benefits they've gotten from stealing, they lead the majors in BRR (baserunning runs), a Baseball Prospectus stat that takes into account all baserunning advances, not just those that come via the steal. (The Braves and Cardinals, who have shown poor stolen base results, rank last and second-to-last, respectively, in non-steal BRR.) The surprisingly successful Indians and perpetually speedy Rays just missed joining the positive entries in the table above.
The White Sox owe their poor showing to the play of Juan Pierre. He is baseball's active steals leader, with 533 swipes to his name, but he's been running his team out of innings this season, stealing successfully in only six out of 14 attempts. Even a reduced break-even point couldn't make that sort of ratio acceptable, but Ozzie Guillen continues to give his struggling speedster the green light nonetheless.
[h4]Gunning 'Em Down[/h4]
The Nats have done the best job of gunning down runners. The Angels, however, should reconsider whether Jeff Mathis' defense is as good as his reputation.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.43[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.35[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]0.22[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]-0.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]-0.55[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]-0.56[/td][/tr][/table]
There are two sides to the stolen base coin. Just as the steal's increased value rewards an offense that employs it as a weapon, so can improved resistance to opponents' attempts benefit a battery. Pitchers and catchers who limit the running game stand to receive the same extra credit in today's steal-oriented game as players who leverage their legs for added offensive value. Listed to the right are the teams that have done the best and worst jobs of preventing opposing teams from striking via the steal.
The Nationals have been as adept at putting a damper on the opposition's running game as they have at igniting their own. Ivan Rodriguez's bat has wilted with age, but his arm remains strong. He and Wilson Ramos have each gunned down 36 percent of opposing base stealers. Oakland's Kurt Suzuki leads the league with a 51 percent rate that wouldn't have looked out of place in Pudge's prime.
Despite his superb defensive reputation, the Angels' Jeff Mathis has never been particularly adept at cutting down runners, and this year he's been spelled behind the plate by Hank Conger, who hasn't excelled in that area, either. The Mariners' Miguel Olivo has a solid 35 percent career caught stealing rate but has slipped to 17 percent this season. The Phillies' Carlos Ruiz comes in at a mere 13 percent, slightly worse than Jason Varitek's 16 percent.
Scoring could rebound just as quickly and mysteriously as it has subsided, so the steal's potency isn't necessarily here to stay. However, teams that learn to love the steal while runs are scarce stand to benefit in a new way from an old weapon.
The "new" Adrian Gonzalez.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to hitters, it's fair to say the Boston Red Sox have a type. They targeted David Ortiz for his patience and power when the Minnesota Twins gave up on him, outbid the rest of baseball for J.D. Drew's patient approach at the plate and drafted Kevin Youkilis -- who was famously labeled The Greek God of Walks in Michael Lewis' "Moneyball." The Red Sox like hitters who work the count and take pitches, and this philosophy of hitting has led to the team having the highest walk rate of any team in baseball since 2003, which happens to be the year Theo Epstein took over as the team's general manager.
Therefore, it made complete sense when the Red Sox gave up a big chunk of their farm system to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres this past winter. Gonzalez fit the type perfectly, having drawn 212 walks over the prior two seasons and showing one of the most patient approaches of any hitter in baseball. He was viewed as the quintessential Boston hitter, and it was no surprise that the Red Sox chose to replace the free-swinging Adrian Beltre with a player who was more their style.
Only a funny thing has happened to Gonzalez since he arrived in Boston -- he has stopped taking walks, and is producing as a very different type of hitter than what the Red Sox might have thought they were getting when they traded for him. Through his first 164 plate appearances in Boston, Gonzalez has drawn just 11 walks, and two of those were intentional. To put that in context, he has one fewer walk than noted swing-at-anything maven Ichiro Suzuki, and only one more unintentional walk than Jeff Francoeur, whose aggressive approach at the plate has made him a lightning rod for criticism over the years.
When a usually patient hitter stops walking, it is often referenced as evidence that the player is pressing or trying to do too much. It is a common explanation for why hitters are slumping, especially if they've changed teams and are feeling the pressure of living up to their new city's expectations. However, Gonzalez isn't slumping at all. He's hitting .329/.378/.566 and he's on pace to have the best offensive season of his career. So, how do we explain Gonzalez's success while also understanding that he's doing it in an entirely different way than he was in San Diego?
I think the key is to understand that Gonzalez has never been as patient a hitter as his walk rate would suggest. In November of 2009, I wrote an article for FanGraphs suggesting that the huge spike in his walk rate had less to do with Gonzalez's skills and more to do with the inferior talent that the Padres surrounded him with. Since he was the only offensive threat in San Diego the past two years, pitchers had no real reason to challenge him, and thus he was fed a steady diet of pitches out of the strike zone.
In Boston, that's obviously not the case, as Gonzalez is surrounded by other quality major league hitters. Pitchers can no longer simply put him on base and expect to get an inning-ending double play from the next batter due up. Gonzalez, apparently buoyed by his chance to swing the bat once again, has taken advantage of the change.
So far this year, Gonzalez is swinging at 48.7 percent of the pitches he's been thrown, way up from where he was two years ago when he set a career high with 117 walks. Additionally, he's making more contact than he ever has before, putting the bat on the ball 84.9 percent of the time compared to a career contact rate of just 77.5 percent. The biggest difference is on pitches out of the strike zone. He's making contact on 77.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone, compared to just 57.9 percent for his career. By swinging more often -- and perhaps more importantly, missing less frequently -- Gonzalez is finding himself in at-bats that end more quickly and are less likely to result in a free pass.
Why is Gonzalez making more contact? It's impossible to pin it down to any one factor, especially considering we're still dealing with just more than one month's worth of data, but it seems like Gonzalez is taking advantage of the Green Monster and a far more hitter-friendly environment than he was used to in San Diego. For his career, 27 percent of balls he has put in play have gone to left field, and he has a career batting average on balls in play to left field of .337. This year, 33 percent of the balls he has put in play have been to left and his BABIP on balls hit to the opposite field is .459. The ability to pepper balls off of the tall wall in Boston has likely emboldened Gonzalez to chase pitches on the outer half of the plate with more frequency, since he's confident that he can get enough on it to bounce it off the Monster rather than having a left fielder track it down in Petco.
Gonzalez is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than he has in any other year of his career, and he's getting better results on balls hit to left field than ever before. It is unlikely that those two changes are coincidental, especially considering what we know about how Petco and Fenway treat hitters. With better hitters around him and a short fence inviting him to swing away, Gonzalez is returning to the more aggressive approach that he showed earlier in his career.
While I doubt that Gonzalez will end the year with the kind of walk rate you'd expect from a hacking middle infielder, it's also unlikely that he'll post the same kind of walk totals he did in San Diego. Gonzalez likes to swing the bat, and now that he's been given some protection and a better ballpark in which to do so, he seems determined to prove what he can do when he's allowed to swing regularly.
Therefore, it made complete sense when the Red Sox gave up a big chunk of their farm system to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres this past winter. Gonzalez fit the type perfectly, having drawn 212 walks over the prior two seasons and showing one of the most patient approaches of any hitter in baseball. He was viewed as the quintessential Boston hitter, and it was no surprise that the Red Sox chose to replace the free-swinging Adrian Beltre with a player who was more their style.
Only a funny thing has happened to Gonzalez since he arrived in Boston -- he has stopped taking walks, and is producing as a very different type of hitter than what the Red Sox might have thought they were getting when they traded for him. Through his first 164 plate appearances in Boston, Gonzalez has drawn just 11 walks, and two of those were intentional. To put that in context, he has one fewer walk than noted swing-at-anything maven Ichiro Suzuki, and only one more unintentional walk than Jeff Francoeur, whose aggressive approach at the plate has made him a lightning rod for criticism over the years.
When a usually patient hitter stops walking, it is often referenced as evidence that the player is pressing or trying to do too much. It is a common explanation for why hitters are slumping, especially if they've changed teams and are feeling the pressure of living up to their new city's expectations. However, Gonzalez isn't slumping at all. He's hitting .329/.378/.566 and he's on pace to have the best offensive season of his career. So, how do we explain Gonzalez's success while also understanding that he's doing it in an entirely different way than he was in San Diego?
I think the key is to understand that Gonzalez has never been as patient a hitter as his walk rate would suggest. In November of 2009, I wrote an article for FanGraphs suggesting that the huge spike in his walk rate had less to do with Gonzalez's skills and more to do with the inferior talent that the Padres surrounded him with. Since he was the only offensive threat in San Diego the past two years, pitchers had no real reason to challenge him, and thus he was fed a steady diet of pitches out of the strike zone.
In Boston, that's obviously not the case, as Gonzalez is surrounded by other quality major league hitters. Pitchers can no longer simply put him on base and expect to get an inning-ending double play from the next batter due up. Gonzalez, apparently buoyed by his chance to swing the bat once again, has taken advantage of the change.
So far this year, Gonzalez is swinging at 48.7 percent of the pitches he's been thrown, way up from where he was two years ago when he set a career high with 117 walks. Additionally, he's making more contact than he ever has before, putting the bat on the ball 84.9 percent of the time compared to a career contact rate of just 77.5 percent. The biggest difference is on pitches out of the strike zone. He's making contact on 77.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone, compared to just 57.9 percent for his career. By swinging more often -- and perhaps more importantly, missing less frequently -- Gonzalez is finding himself in at-bats that end more quickly and are less likely to result in a free pass.
Why is Gonzalez making more contact? It's impossible to pin it down to any one factor, especially considering we're still dealing with just more than one month's worth of data, but it seems like Gonzalez is taking advantage of the Green Monster and a far more hitter-friendly environment than he was used to in San Diego. For his career, 27 percent of balls he has put in play have gone to left field, and he has a career batting average on balls in play to left field of .337. This year, 33 percent of the balls he has put in play have been to left and his BABIP on balls hit to the opposite field is .459. The ability to pepper balls off of the tall wall in Boston has likely emboldened Gonzalez to chase pitches on the outer half of the plate with more frequency, since he's confident that he can get enough on it to bounce it off the Monster rather than having a left fielder track it down in Petco.
Gonzalez is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than he has in any other year of his career, and he's getting better results on balls hit to left field than ever before. It is unlikely that those two changes are coincidental, especially considering what we know about how Petco and Fenway treat hitters. With better hitters around him and a short fence inviting him to swing away, Gonzalez is returning to the more aggressive approach that he showed earlier in his career.
While I doubt that Gonzalez will end the year with the kind of walk rate you'd expect from a hacking middle infielder, it's also unlikely that he'll post the same kind of walk totals he did in San Diego. Gonzalez likes to swing the bat, and now that he's been given some protection and a better ballpark in which to do so, he seems determined to prove what he can do when he's allowed to swing regularly.
Top 10 Mock Draft.
Spoiler [+]
Here's my first top-10 projection, which I unveiled on Thursday's edition of "College Baseball Live" on ESPNU. I've also included some notes on each of the teams' preferences and some other assorted rumors. You can also check out my full top-100 rankings, which were updated on Thursday.
We're still 25 days out from the start of the Rule 4 draft, so it is incredibly early for this, but I think we know enough about some of these teams' preferences to at least offer an educated guess.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
This is not a lock by any means, as Cole hasn't been as impressive his past three outings as he was early in the spring, and Pittsburgh is looking at Anthony Rendon and Danny Hultzen as alternatives.
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
This pick may come down to Rendon's medical records, which I'm told is at the scouting bureau but not yet released to clubs by Rendon's family. If it checks out, he's Seattle's guy. If not, they're also linked to Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen's gone, and he could be, Arizona is also all over Bubba Starling, who had a capital-d Day in front of GM Kevin Towers.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
All else being equal, they'd prefer a college player, and would love Hultzen but seem unlikely to get him. Also hearing them on Dylan Bundy and to a lesser degree on Starling and Lindor. Early interest in Jed Bradley seems to have faded.
5. Kansas City Royals: Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
The near-universal sentiment has them taking a college pitcher -- Cole if he's here -- or the college-pitcher-like Dylan Bundy. Although one source insists they are all over Lindor as well and won't let him get past them.
6. Washington Nationals: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Washington originally thought they'd get Meyer with the 23rd pick, which they got as compensation for Adam Dunn signing with the White Sox, but Meyer has pitched way too well down the stretch for that to happen. If they want Meyer they'd have to take him here. Other names in this spot include Hultzen, Bauer, or Barnes if they get this far, but they wouldn't do Bundy, Sonny Gray, or Taylor Jungmann. I've also heard the Nats on outfielder Brian Goodwin with the 23rd pick.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Yes. the D-backs have two picks in the top 10. This one comes as compensation for failing to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux. Bundy shouldn't get this far, but the top six is full of teams that prefer college players. This could also be another landing spot for Bauer.
8. Cleveland Indians: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
They covet Bauer, but I can't see him getting that far right now with Baltimore and Washington interested. Have also heard Lindor here and Oklahoma prep righty Archie Bradley.
9. Chicago Cubs: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Starling has no business getting this far, but concerns about a big price tag -- I'm hearing he wants Bryce Harper money -- have some teams passing. If he's gone, other names here include Bradley, George Springer and Gray.
10. San Diego Padres: Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy Have also heard Gray and Barnes with this unprotected pick, as well as Cory Spangenberg, a player who'll definitely sign for slot.
I'll revisit this on Tuesday with a projection of the entire first round.
We're still 25 days out from the start of the Rule 4 draft, so it is incredibly early for this, but I think we know enough about some of these teams' preferences to at least offer an educated guess.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
This is not a lock by any means, as Cole hasn't been as impressive his past three outings as he was early in the spring, and Pittsburgh is looking at Anthony Rendon and Danny Hultzen as alternatives.
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
This pick may come down to Rendon's medical records, which I'm told is at the scouting bureau but not yet released to clubs by Rendon's family. If it checks out, he's Seattle's guy. If not, they're also linked to Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen's gone, and he could be, Arizona is also all over Bubba Starling, who had a capital-d Day in front of GM Kevin Towers.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
All else being equal, they'd prefer a college player, and would love Hultzen but seem unlikely to get him. Also hearing them on Dylan Bundy and to a lesser degree on Starling and Lindor. Early interest in Jed Bradley seems to have faded.
5. Kansas City Royals: Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
The near-universal sentiment has them taking a college pitcher -- Cole if he's here -- or the college-pitcher-like Dylan Bundy. Although one source insists they are all over Lindor as well and won't let him get past them.
6. Washington Nationals: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Washington originally thought they'd get Meyer with the 23rd pick, which they got as compensation for Adam Dunn signing with the White Sox, but Meyer has pitched way too well down the stretch for that to happen. If they want Meyer they'd have to take him here. Other names in this spot include Hultzen, Bauer, or Barnes if they get this far, but they wouldn't do Bundy, Sonny Gray, or Taylor Jungmann. I've also heard the Nats on outfielder Brian Goodwin with the 23rd pick.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Yes. the D-backs have two picks in the top 10. This one comes as compensation for failing to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux. Bundy shouldn't get this far, but the top six is full of teams that prefer college players. This could also be another landing spot for Bauer.
8. Cleveland Indians: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
They covet Bauer, but I can't see him getting that far right now with Baltimore and Washington interested. Have also heard Lindor here and Oklahoma prep righty Archie Bradley.
9. Chicago Cubs: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Starling has no business getting this far, but concerns about a big price tag -- I'm hearing he wants Bryce Harper money -- have some teams passing. If he's gone, other names here include Bradley, George Springer and Gray.
10. San Diego Padres: Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy Have also heard Gray and Barnes with this unprotected pick, as well as Cory Spangenberg, a player who'll definitely sign for slot.
I'll revisit this on Tuesday with a projection of the entire first round.
Piece on San Fran.
Revolution of the stolen base.
The "new" Adrian Gonzalez.
Top 10 Mock Draft.
Spoiler [+]
Every day, Nate Schierholtz plays catch with Aaron Rowand, and after they get loose, they play a game in which they pretend to throw out runners with one-hop throws. From 150 feet, they cut loose, and if their partner has to move to catch a throw, well, the imaginary runner is safe.
Getty ImagesThe Giants have survived despite a lack of runs.
But if they can make a perfect throw -- a one-bounce throw right to the glove, and the partner doesn't move -- the runner is out. Rowand and Schierholtz do this day after day after day to prepare for a play that might come up in a big spot.
Such as on Thursday, with two outs in the top of the third inning. Gerardo Parra of the Diamondbacks clubbed a line drive to right-center field toward the wall in AT&T Park, which is a mathematician's dream with its geometry of angles. "He turned on it pretty well," Schierholtz said on the phone after the game. "I knew it was over my head."
Every day during batting practice before home games, Schierholtz likes to practice tracking balls off the bats of a teammate rather than from a coach with a fungo bat because it is a much truer read -- the ball comes from the plate at high velocity. This way, Schierholtz can develop a feel for how the ball will come off the brick or screening.
So he raced toward the fence, using an angle that allowed him to take the ball squarely off an angled portion of the wall perfectly; the ball ricocheted off a State Farm sign right to Schierholtz. "I got a good carom off the wall and threw blindly toward the infield," he said.
But remember: Schierholtz makes this throw every day in the drills he does with Rowand. For Schierholtz, this kind of play has become ingrained in his muscle memory.
Schierholtz rocketed the ball toward second base. It skipped once, low, and directly into the glove of shortstop Miguel Tejada, who snapped a tag down on the feet of the sliding Parra -- and Parra looked up at the umpire as if to say, "You gotta be kidding me."
Looking confused, Parra glanced over at Schierholtz and mouthed: "Wow." And when Schierholtz came to bat in the next half-inning, Arizona catcher Miguel Montero mentioned the throw as well.
Schierholtz's play was the No. 1 Web Gem from Thursday. As it should be. It was a throw to remember, writes Steve Kroner. The Giants closed out what was a perfect homestand for them, and as you look up at the standings Friday, San Francisco -- despite all of its offensive issues with Tejada and Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff -- is in first place.
• Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling and, more specifically, Ubaldo Jimenez seems no closer to solving his problems than he was in August. He is on the losing side of a head game right now, writes Mark Kiszla.
• Zach Britton is making a strong case for himself for the AL All-Star team. He shut down the Mariners for nine innings Thursday but didn't get the win; the O's won in extra innings, Jeff Zrebiec writes. Right now, Britton probably has an edge over impressive Mariners pitcher Michael Pineda for AL Rookie of the Year:
Britton: 5-2, 2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a .203 batting average for opponents
Pineda: 4-2, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, a .221 batting average for opponents
From Michael Trainor of ESPN Stats & Information: How Britton blanked the Mariners (in a no-decision): He changed it up. Britton is known for his hard sinker, but it was the changeup that did the most damage Thursday. The O's lefty threw 24 changeups, 22 for strikes (91.7 strike percentage), and the M's swung at 20 of them. The Mariners were 1-for-10 (.100) with four strikeouts (of Britton's five) in at-bats ending with the change. On the season, opposing hitters are 4-for-36 (.111) in at-bats ending on changeups against Britton. He is among the AL leaders in strike percentage with the change:
Jered Weaver: 76.5
Bartolo Colon: 75.8
Jo-Jo Reyes: 73.8
Jesse Litsch: 73.4
Zach Britton: 73.0
His other pitches weren't bad, either. The Mariners were 1-for-8 (.125) in at-bats ending with the sinker and 1-for-10 (.100) against the fastball. Britton posted a high strike percentage (70.4, 76 of 108 pitches) and swing percentage (54.6, 59 of 108 pitches), both of which were career highs.
From Elias: The last time both team's starting pitchers (Britton and Jason Vargas) finished with a pitching line of at least nine innings pitched and no runs allowed: July 10, 2010 -- Cincinnati (Travis Wood) at Philadelphia (Roy Halladay). Both pitched exactly nine innings.
• In a season in which teams are scratching for runs and general managers are scanning other teams' rosters and trying to identify players who could be potential trade targets, Carlos Beltran is developing into a very interesting option. He slammed three homers on Thursday and is hitting .295 with eight homers, a .387 on-base percentage and a .590 slugging percentage.
Beltran, who's eligible for free agency in the fall, is making a whopping $18.5 million this year, and it will be interesting to see how his salary plays into other teams' pursuit of him. Last year, only two teams -- the Rangers and the Yankees -- spent $5 million or more in midseason additions. If Beltran were to be traded at midseason without the Mets kicking in any money, his next team would be on the hook for $9 million.
Presumably, the Mets will wind up kicking in some money to offset the salary, but the better that Beltran plays, the better his trade value will be as one of the very few available position players who could be a difference-maker. New York could wind up getting a decent prospect in return for him if he continues to play this well.
From Stats & Info: Beltran became the eighth Met to hit three home runs in a game -- and the first since Jose Reyes in 2006. Two of his home runs Thursday came off pitches that were up and away. Of his eight home runs this season, half have come on pitches in that location. Since 2008, Beltran is hitting .325 and slugging .695, and has belted 14 home runs on pitches up and away. The 14 homers are the most he has hit among the nine pitch locations even though he has seen more pitches in two other spots: down and away and down and in.
Beltran is the first player this season with a three-homer game. Last year, there were 13 such games. The last four players to hit three or more home runs in a game at Coors Field were visitors. Dustin Pedroia was the most recent, in 2010. From Elias: Carlos Beltran homered to all three fields (left, center, right). The only player to do that in one game last season was Adam Dunn.
• Andrew McCutchen was benched on Thursday, and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle delivered the first "wow" moment of his tenure, writes Ron Cook.
• It was a big day for the Class A Clearwater Threshers, who had three big leaguers in their lineup -- pitcher Roy Oswalt, second baseman Chase Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz. Oswalt struggled with his velocity, writes Matt Gelb. Oswalt's fastball was an issue, writes Bill Conlin. Ruiz's rehab is important partly because of the injury to Brad Schneider.
• Ever since Bryce Harper was fitted with contact lenses, he's been killing the ball. From Dave Sheinin's story:
1. Fred Wilpon is feeling good about the progress in the sale of Mets shares.
2. Major League Baseball will do its due diligence in examining the Dodgers' financial records, regardless of Frank McCourt's preferred timeline.
3. Scott Boras will advise against Eric Hosmer working out a long-term deal right now.
Because, after all, what person in their early 20s would ever want to guarantee himself tens of millions of dollars? The advice belongs to Boras. The risk falls entirely in Hosmer's.
4. An experiment at second base has paid off for the Cardinals.
5. Nolan Ryan is officially in control of the Rangers.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. J.P. Howell continues to make progress in his injury rehab. Perhaps as soon as next week, the Rays' bullpen -- which has been better than expected despite being rebuilt -- will have the one element it lacks: an experienced lefty. When you're in a division with Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Carl Crawford, Howell figures to be a very important weapon.
2. Ike Davis was placed on the disabled list.
3. Robinson Cano is OK after getting hit in the head.
4. Grady Sizemore is going to be cautious with his knee.
5. Jason Heyward got a cortisone shot.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Wizard of Hoz propelled the Royals to their first series win in Yankee Stadium since 1999. Eric Hosmer mashed homers in each of the last two games of this series. In just a year under Ned Yost, anything seems possible.
2. I watched a lot of Jordan Zimmermann's mostly dominant outing against the Braves on Thursday, and he deserved a better fate; he pitched a great game.
3. It was a big win for the Braves, who needed to stop the bleeding; Brian McCann got a walk-off hit after Martin Prado mashed a grand slam.
4. The Yankees lost an ugly game.
5. The Indians couldn't dent James Shields.
6. Jaime Garcia was excellent again. From Mr. Trainor, how Garcia beat the Cubs:
• Once again, the Cubs were aggressive early in the count against Garcia. Of the 53 pitches they saw in the first two pitches of an at-bat, they swung at 25 of them (47.2 percentage), the second-highest percentage against Garcia in his short career. The only time an opponent swung more often early in the count was the Cubs in September, Garcia's only other start against them.
• When the Cubs were patient against Garcia, he dominated. Eight of their nine hits came during the first two pitches of an at-bat. In at-bats ending in counts other than the first two pitches, the Cubs were 1-for-12, including 0-for-7 with two strikes.
• Garcia went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw seven sliders among his 15 pitches with two strikes (46.7 percent), well above his season average of 33.9 percent. Three of Garcia's four strikeouts came on his slider.
Getty ImagesThe Giants have survived despite a lack of runs.
But if they can make a perfect throw -- a one-bounce throw right to the glove, and the partner doesn't move -- the runner is out. Rowand and Schierholtz do this day after day after day to prepare for a play that might come up in a big spot.
Such as on Thursday, with two outs in the top of the third inning. Gerardo Parra of the Diamondbacks clubbed a line drive to right-center field toward the wall in AT&T Park, which is a mathematician's dream with its geometry of angles. "He turned on it pretty well," Schierholtz said on the phone after the game. "I knew it was over my head."
Every day during batting practice before home games, Schierholtz likes to practice tracking balls off the bats of a teammate rather than from a coach with a fungo bat because it is a much truer read -- the ball comes from the plate at high velocity. This way, Schierholtz can develop a feel for how the ball will come off the brick or screening.
So he raced toward the fence, using an angle that allowed him to take the ball squarely off an angled portion of the wall perfectly; the ball ricocheted off a State Farm sign right to Schierholtz. "I got a good carom off the wall and threw blindly toward the infield," he said.
But remember: Schierholtz makes this throw every day in the drills he does with Rowand. For Schierholtz, this kind of play has become ingrained in his muscle memory.
Schierholtz rocketed the ball toward second base. It skipped once, low, and directly into the glove of shortstop Miguel Tejada, who snapped a tag down on the feet of the sliding Parra -- and Parra looked up at the umpire as if to say, "You gotta be kidding me."
Looking confused, Parra glanced over at Schierholtz and mouthed: "Wow." And when Schierholtz came to bat in the next half-inning, Arizona catcher Miguel Montero mentioned the throw as well.
Schierholtz's play was the No. 1 Web Gem from Thursday. As it should be. It was a throw to remember, writes Steve Kroner. The Giants closed out what was a perfect homestand for them, and as you look up at the standings Friday, San Francisco -- despite all of its offensive issues with Tejada and Buster Posey and Aubrey Huff -- is in first place.
• Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling and, more specifically, Ubaldo Jimenez seems no closer to solving his problems than he was in August. He is on the losing side of a head game right now, writes Mark Kiszla.
• Zach Britton is making a strong case for himself for the AL All-Star team. He shut down the Mariners for nine innings Thursday but didn't get the win; the O's won in extra innings, Jeff Zrebiec writes. Right now, Britton probably has an edge over impressive Mariners pitcher Michael Pineda for AL Rookie of the Year:
Britton: 5-2, 2.42 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, a .203 batting average for opponents
Pineda: 4-2, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, a .221 batting average for opponents
From Michael Trainor of ESPN Stats & Information: How Britton blanked the Mariners (in a no-decision): He changed it up. Britton is known for his hard sinker, but it was the changeup that did the most damage Thursday. The O's lefty threw 24 changeups, 22 for strikes (91.7 strike percentage), and the M's swung at 20 of them. The Mariners were 1-for-10 (.100) with four strikeouts (of Britton's five) in at-bats ending with the change. On the season, opposing hitters are 4-for-36 (.111) in at-bats ending on changeups against Britton. He is among the AL leaders in strike percentage with the change:
Jered Weaver: 76.5
Bartolo Colon: 75.8
Jo-Jo Reyes: 73.8
Jesse Litsch: 73.4
Zach Britton: 73.0
His other pitches weren't bad, either. The Mariners were 1-for-8 (.125) in at-bats ending with the sinker and 1-for-10 (.100) against the fastball. Britton posted a high strike percentage (70.4, 76 of 108 pitches) and swing percentage (54.6, 59 of 108 pitches), both of which were career highs.
From Elias: The last time both team's starting pitchers (Britton and Jason Vargas) finished with a pitching line of at least nine innings pitched and no runs allowed: July 10, 2010 -- Cincinnati (Travis Wood) at Philadelphia (Roy Halladay). Both pitched exactly nine innings.
• In a season in which teams are scratching for runs and general managers are scanning other teams' rosters and trying to identify players who could be potential trade targets, Carlos Beltran is developing into a very interesting option. He slammed three homers on Thursday and is hitting .295 with eight homers, a .387 on-base percentage and a .590 slugging percentage.
Beltran, who's eligible for free agency in the fall, is making a whopping $18.5 million this year, and it will be interesting to see how his salary plays into other teams' pursuit of him. Last year, only two teams -- the Rangers and the Yankees -- spent $5 million or more in midseason additions. If Beltran were to be traded at midseason without the Mets kicking in any money, his next team would be on the hook for $9 million.
Presumably, the Mets will wind up kicking in some money to offset the salary, but the better that Beltran plays, the better his trade value will be as one of the very few available position players who could be a difference-maker. New York could wind up getting a decent prospect in return for him if he continues to play this well.
From Stats & Info: Beltran became the eighth Met to hit three home runs in a game -- and the first since Jose Reyes in 2006. Two of his home runs Thursday came off pitches that were up and away. Of his eight home runs this season, half have come on pitches in that location. Since 2008, Beltran is hitting .325 and slugging .695, and has belted 14 home runs on pitches up and away. The 14 homers are the most he has hit among the nine pitch locations even though he has seen more pitches in two other spots: down and away and down and in.
Beltran is the first player this season with a three-homer game. Last year, there were 13 such games. The last four players to hit three or more home runs in a game at Coors Field were visitors. Dustin Pedroia was the most recent, in 2010. From Elias: Carlos Beltran homered to all three fields (left, center, right). The only player to do that in one game last season was Adam Dunn.
• Andrew McCutchen was benched on Thursday, and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle delivered the first "wow" moment of his tenure, writes Ron Cook.
• It was a big day for the Class A Clearwater Threshers, who had three big leaguers in their lineup -- pitcher Roy Oswalt, second baseman Chase Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz. Oswalt struggled with his velocity, writes Matt Gelb. Oswalt's fastball was an issue, writes Bill Conlin. Ruiz's rehab is important partly because of the injury to Brad Schneider.
• Ever since Bryce Harper was fitted with contact lenses, he's been killing the ball. From Dave Sheinin's story:
- Suffice it to say Harper's hi-def vision is a huge upgrade over standard-def. In 20 games since his visit to the eye doctor, Harper is hitting .480 (36 for 75) with a .547 on-base percentage and an .893 slugging percentage -- with 7 homers, 10 doubles and 23 RBI. For the season, he is hitting .395/.473/.702, leading the league in all three "slash-line" categories.
1. Fred Wilpon is feeling good about the progress in the sale of Mets shares.
2. Major League Baseball will do its due diligence in examining the Dodgers' financial records, regardless of Frank McCourt's preferred timeline.
3. Scott Boras will advise against Eric Hosmer working out a long-term deal right now.
Because, after all, what person in their early 20s would ever want to guarantee himself tens of millions of dollars? The advice belongs to Boras. The risk falls entirely in Hosmer's.
4. An experiment at second base has paid off for the Cardinals.
5. Nolan Ryan is officially in control of the Rangers.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. J.P. Howell continues to make progress in his injury rehab. Perhaps as soon as next week, the Rays' bullpen -- which has been better than expected despite being rebuilt -- will have the one element it lacks: an experienced lefty. When you're in a division with Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Carl Crawford, Howell figures to be a very important weapon.
2. Ike Davis was placed on the disabled list.
3. Robinson Cano is OK after getting hit in the head.
4. Grady Sizemore is going to be cautious with his knee.
5. Jason Heyward got a cortisone shot.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Wizard of Hoz propelled the Royals to their first series win in Yankee Stadium since 1999. Eric Hosmer mashed homers in each of the last two games of this series. In just a year under Ned Yost, anything seems possible.
2. I watched a lot of Jordan Zimmermann's mostly dominant outing against the Braves on Thursday, and he deserved a better fate; he pitched a great game.
3. It was a big win for the Braves, who needed to stop the bleeding; Brian McCann got a walk-off hit after Martin Prado mashed a grand slam.
4. The Yankees lost an ugly game.
5. The Indians couldn't dent James Shields.
6. Jaime Garcia was excellent again. From Mr. Trainor, how Garcia beat the Cubs:
• Once again, the Cubs were aggressive early in the count against Garcia. Of the 53 pitches they saw in the first two pitches of an at-bat, they swung at 25 of them (47.2 percentage), the second-highest percentage against Garcia in his short career. The only time an opponent swung more often early in the count was the Cubs in September, Garcia's only other start against them.
• When the Cubs were patient against Garcia, he dominated. Eight of their nine hits came during the first two pitches of an at-bat. In at-bats ending in counts other than the first two pitches, the Cubs were 1-for-12, including 0-for-7 with two strikes.
• Garcia went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw seven sliders among his 15 pitches with two strikes (46.7 percent), well above his season average of 33.9 percent. Three of Garcia's four strikeouts came on his slider.
Revolution of the stolen base.
Spoiler [+]
After a surprising number of low-scoring games and a flurry of no-hitters, the 2010 season was quickly christened the "Year of the Pitcher," but if 2011's early returns are any indication, the pundits may have spoken too soon.
Scoring is down for the fifth consecutive season, and not by a little: On average, teams scored over a quarter of a run less per game this April than they did last April, and unless offense picks up significantly over the next few weeks, this May will be the first full month since July 1992 in which the average team scored fewer than four runs per game.
The effects of the offensive drought have been felt in a number of highly visible ways. One of the most notable is the increase of stolen base attempts. After falling out of favor during the offensive explosion of the PED era, the stolen base is back in vogue, and certain teams are taking far more advantage of the phenomenon than others.
Baseball ProspectusWhen runs are scarce, there's more incentive to try to steal bases.
It's not hard to see why steals are on the rise. Sabermetricians often talk about the "break-even point," the point at which the likelihood of a successful steal justifies the risk of getting caught. A copious base thief who gets thrown out often isn't actually helping his team with his wheels, since he's doing more damage by getting erased. As this graph of runs per game and break-even point over the past 30 years suggests, the two tend to move in tandem.
As scoring decreases, so does the penalty associated with getting caught stealing; since runners are less likely to be driven in by batters who follow them when hits are few and far between, they have less to lose by getting erased. Earlier this decade, the break-even point hovered in the neighborhood of 70 percent. Thanks to this season's low run totals, that figure has fallen to approximately 66.5 percent, a value straight out of the go-go '80s, the decade that helped speedsters such as Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman join deadball era stars such as Sliding Billy Hamilton, Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins at the top of the all-time stolen base leaderboard. And with fewer disincentives to run, runners have been taking off in a higher percentage of their opportunities.
Check out the second graph, which shows stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities. So if 200 players reach first base without a runner blocking their way and 10 of them attempt a steal, that's a 5 percent rate.
Baseball ProspectusStolen base attempts have steadily been on the rise over the last few seasons.
Since the offensive drought also means fewer runners are reaching base, the full impact of that rate hike might not register in the raw totals. Still, the increase from last year's rate to this year's rate would result in roughly 600 more steals over a full season, given the same number of opportunities.
Confronted with an offensive environment in which pitchers are increasingly in command, it might be only natural for teams to conclude that if they can't beat them they might as well join them by procuring better pitchers and defenders. However, while frequent 11-10 slugfests are, at least temporarily, a thing of the past, investing in the appreciating stolen base offers is one way to make the most of the meager opportunities allowed by opposing hurlers.
Some teams are better positioned than others to take advantage of this brave new world. The table below lists the teams that have derived the most and least value in terms of expected wins from the steal this season.
[h4]Thieves In The Night[/h4]
The Padres are benefiting the most from stolen bases, while the White Sox's slow start can partially be blamed on getting caught.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]0.92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]0.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.40[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]-0.33[/td][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]-0.36[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]-0.48[/td][/tr][/table]
It comes as little surprise the Padres are excelling here, since they're the team most in need of offensive assistance. Petco Park suppresses scoring to such a degree that playing there this season has been like taking a time warp back to 1968. During the original "Year of the Pitcher," 3.41 runs were scored per game in the majors, while the Padres and their opponents have combined for an average of 3.47 per game in Petco this season. As a result, the Padres' personal break-even point is even lower than the league's, and the team has been taking advantage of that license to steal, led by Orlando Hudson -- who racked up 10 steals, already equaling his single-season career high, before hitting the DL with a hamstring strain -- Will Venable and offseason imports Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett.
The Royals, who are leading the majors in larceny, have gotten the bulk of their steals from their least productive bats: Mike Aviles, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Getz and Alcides Escobar have combined for a .238/.291/.348 line and 28 swipes. With slash lines like those, these players are running not just for the Royals' sake, but for their major league lives. The Nationals have impressed on the basepaths not only via the steal but in seizing every possible opportunity to take an extra base; even after excluding the benefits they've gotten from stealing, they lead the majors in BRR (baserunning runs), a Baseball Prospectus stat that takes into account all baserunning advances, not just those that come via the steal. (The Braves and Cardinals, who have shown poor stolen base results, rank last and second-to-last, respectively, in non-steal BRR.) The surprisingly successful Indians and perpetually speedy Rays just missed joining the positive entries in the table above.
The White Sox owe their poor showing to the play of Juan Pierre. He is baseball's active steals leader, with 533 swipes to his name, but he's been running his team out of innings this season, stealing successfully in only six out of 14 attempts. Even a reduced break-even point couldn't make that sort of ratio acceptable, but Ozzie Guillen continues to give his struggling speedster the green light nonetheless.
[h4]Gunning 'Em Down[/h4]
The Nats have done the best job of gunning down runners. The Angels, however, should reconsider whether Jeff Mathis' defense is as good as his reputation.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.43[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.35[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]0.22[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]-0.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]-0.55[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]-0.56[/td][/tr][/table]
There are two sides to the stolen base coin. Just as the steal's increased value rewards an offense that employs it as a weapon, so can improved resistance to opponents' attempts benefit a battery. Pitchers and catchers who limit the running game stand to receive the same extra credit in today's steal-oriented game as players who leverage their legs for added offensive value. Listed to the right are the teams that have done the best and worst jobs of preventing opposing teams from striking via the steal.
The Nationals have been as adept at putting a damper on the opposition's running game as they have at igniting their own. Ivan Rodriguez's bat has wilted with age, but his arm remains strong. He and Wilson Ramos have each gunned down 36 percent of opposing base stealers. Oakland's Kurt Suzuki leads the league with a 51 percent rate that wouldn't have looked out of place in Pudge's prime.
Despite his superb defensive reputation, the Angels' Jeff Mathis has never been particularly adept at cutting down runners, and this year he's been spelled behind the plate by Hank Conger, who hasn't excelled in that area, either. The Mariners' Miguel Olivo has a solid 35 percent career caught stealing rate but has slipped to 17 percent this season. The Phillies' Carlos Ruiz comes in at a mere 13 percent, slightly worse than Jason Varitek's 16 percent.
Scoring could rebound just as quickly and mysteriously as it has subsided, so the steal's potency isn't necessarily here to stay. However, teams that learn to love the steal while runs are scarce stand to benefit in a new way from an old weapon.
Scoring is down for the fifth consecutive season, and not by a little: On average, teams scored over a quarter of a run less per game this April than they did last April, and unless offense picks up significantly over the next few weeks, this May will be the first full month since July 1992 in which the average team scored fewer than four runs per game.
The effects of the offensive drought have been felt in a number of highly visible ways. One of the most notable is the increase of stolen base attempts. After falling out of favor during the offensive explosion of the PED era, the stolen base is back in vogue, and certain teams are taking far more advantage of the phenomenon than others.
Baseball ProspectusWhen runs are scarce, there's more incentive to try to steal bases.
It's not hard to see why steals are on the rise. Sabermetricians often talk about the "break-even point," the point at which the likelihood of a successful steal justifies the risk of getting caught. A copious base thief who gets thrown out often isn't actually helping his team with his wheels, since he's doing more damage by getting erased. As this graph of runs per game and break-even point over the past 30 years suggests, the two tend to move in tandem.
As scoring decreases, so does the penalty associated with getting caught stealing; since runners are less likely to be driven in by batters who follow them when hits are few and far between, they have less to lose by getting erased. Earlier this decade, the break-even point hovered in the neighborhood of 70 percent. Thanks to this season's low run totals, that figure has fallen to approximately 66.5 percent, a value straight out of the go-go '80s, the decade that helped speedsters such as Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines and Vince Coleman join deadball era stars such as Sliding Billy Hamilton, Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins at the top of the all-time stolen base leaderboard. And with fewer disincentives to run, runners have been taking off in a higher percentage of their opportunities.
Check out the second graph, which shows stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities. So if 200 players reach first base without a runner blocking their way and 10 of them attempt a steal, that's a 5 percent rate.
Baseball ProspectusStolen base attempts have steadily been on the rise over the last few seasons.
Since the offensive drought also means fewer runners are reaching base, the full impact of that rate hike might not register in the raw totals. Still, the increase from last year's rate to this year's rate would result in roughly 600 more steals over a full season, given the same number of opportunities.
Confronted with an offensive environment in which pitchers are increasingly in command, it might be only natural for teams to conclude that if they can't beat them they might as well join them by procuring better pitchers and defenders. However, while frequent 11-10 slugfests are, at least temporarily, a thing of the past, investing in the appreciating stolen base offers is one way to make the most of the meager opportunities allowed by opposing hurlers.
Some teams are better positioned than others to take advantage of this brave new world. The table below lists the teams that have derived the most and least value in terms of expected wins from the steal this season.
[h4]Thieves In The Night[/h4]
The Padres are benefiting the most from stolen bases, while the White Sox's slow start can partially be blamed on getting caught.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]0.92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]0.87[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.40[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]-0.33[/td][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]-0.36[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]-0.48[/td][/tr][/table]
It comes as little surprise the Padres are excelling here, since they're the team most in need of offensive assistance. Petco Park suppresses scoring to such a degree that playing there this season has been like taking a time warp back to 1968. During the original "Year of the Pitcher," 3.41 runs were scored per game in the majors, while the Padres and their opponents have combined for an average of 3.47 per game in Petco this season. As a result, the Padres' personal break-even point is even lower than the league's, and the team has been taking advantage of that license to steal, led by Orlando Hudson -- who racked up 10 steals, already equaling his single-season career high, before hitting the DL with a hamstring strain -- Will Venable and offseason imports Cameron Maybin and Jason Bartlett.
The Royals, who are leading the majors in larceny, have gotten the bulk of their steals from their least productive bats: Mike Aviles, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Getz and Alcides Escobar have combined for a .238/.291/.348 line and 28 swipes. With slash lines like those, these players are running not just for the Royals' sake, but for their major league lives. The Nationals have impressed on the basepaths not only via the steal but in seizing every possible opportunity to take an extra base; even after excluding the benefits they've gotten from stealing, they lead the majors in BRR (baserunning runs), a Baseball Prospectus stat that takes into account all baserunning advances, not just those that come via the steal. (The Braves and Cardinals, who have shown poor stolen base results, rank last and second-to-last, respectively, in non-steal BRR.) The surprisingly successful Indians and perpetually speedy Rays just missed joining the positive entries in the table above.
The White Sox owe their poor showing to the play of Juan Pierre. He is baseball's active steals leader, with 533 swipes to his name, but he's been running his team out of innings this season, stealing successfully in only six out of 14 attempts. Even a reduced break-even point couldn't make that sort of ratio acceptable, but Ozzie Guillen continues to give his struggling speedster the green light nonetheless.
[h4]Gunning 'Em Down[/h4]
The Nats have done the best job of gunning down runners. The Angels, however, should reconsider whether Jeff Mathis' defense is as good as his reputation.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Net Win Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]0.43[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.35[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]0.22[/td][/tr][tr][td]--[/td][td]--[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]-0.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]-0.55[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]-0.56[/td][/tr][/table]
There are two sides to the stolen base coin. Just as the steal's increased value rewards an offense that employs it as a weapon, so can improved resistance to opponents' attempts benefit a battery. Pitchers and catchers who limit the running game stand to receive the same extra credit in today's steal-oriented game as players who leverage their legs for added offensive value. Listed to the right are the teams that have done the best and worst jobs of preventing opposing teams from striking via the steal.
The Nationals have been as adept at putting a damper on the opposition's running game as they have at igniting their own. Ivan Rodriguez's bat has wilted with age, but his arm remains strong. He and Wilson Ramos have each gunned down 36 percent of opposing base stealers. Oakland's Kurt Suzuki leads the league with a 51 percent rate that wouldn't have looked out of place in Pudge's prime.
Despite his superb defensive reputation, the Angels' Jeff Mathis has never been particularly adept at cutting down runners, and this year he's been spelled behind the plate by Hank Conger, who hasn't excelled in that area, either. The Mariners' Miguel Olivo has a solid 35 percent career caught stealing rate but has slipped to 17 percent this season. The Phillies' Carlos Ruiz comes in at a mere 13 percent, slightly worse than Jason Varitek's 16 percent.
Scoring could rebound just as quickly and mysteriously as it has subsided, so the steal's potency isn't necessarily here to stay. However, teams that learn to love the steal while runs are scarce stand to benefit in a new way from an old weapon.
The "new" Adrian Gonzalez.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to hitters, it's fair to say the Boston Red Sox have a type. They targeted David Ortiz for his patience and power when the Minnesota Twins gave up on him, outbid the rest of baseball for J.D. Drew's patient approach at the plate and drafted Kevin Youkilis -- who was famously labeled The Greek God of Walks in Michael Lewis' "Moneyball." The Red Sox like hitters who work the count and take pitches, and this philosophy of hitting has led to the team having the highest walk rate of any team in baseball since 2003, which happens to be the year Theo Epstein took over as the team's general manager.
Therefore, it made complete sense when the Red Sox gave up a big chunk of their farm system to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres this past winter. Gonzalez fit the type perfectly, having drawn 212 walks over the prior two seasons and showing one of the most patient approaches of any hitter in baseball. He was viewed as the quintessential Boston hitter, and it was no surprise that the Red Sox chose to replace the free-swinging Adrian Beltre with a player who was more their style.
Only a funny thing has happened to Gonzalez since he arrived in Boston -- he has stopped taking walks, and is producing as a very different type of hitter than what the Red Sox might have thought they were getting when they traded for him. Through his first 164 plate appearances in Boston, Gonzalez has drawn just 11 walks, and two of those were intentional. To put that in context, he has one fewer walk than noted swing-at-anything maven Ichiro Suzuki, and only one more unintentional walk than Jeff Francoeur, whose aggressive approach at the plate has made him a lightning rod for criticism over the years.
When a usually patient hitter stops walking, it is often referenced as evidence that the player is pressing or trying to do too much. It is a common explanation for why hitters are slumping, especially if they've changed teams and are feeling the pressure of living up to their new city's expectations. However, Gonzalez isn't slumping at all. He's hitting .329/.378/.566 and he's on pace to have the best offensive season of his career. So, how do we explain Gonzalez's success while also understanding that he's doing it in an entirely different way than he was in San Diego?
I think the key is to understand that Gonzalez has never been as patient a hitter as his walk rate would suggest. In November of 2009, I wrote an article for FanGraphs suggesting that the huge spike in his walk rate had less to do with Gonzalez's skills and more to do with the inferior talent that the Padres surrounded him with. Since he was the only offensive threat in San Diego the past two years, pitchers had no real reason to challenge him, and thus he was fed a steady diet of pitches out of the strike zone.
In Boston, that's obviously not the case, as Gonzalez is surrounded by other quality major league hitters. Pitchers can no longer simply put him on base and expect to get an inning-ending double play from the next batter due up. Gonzalez, apparently buoyed by his chance to swing the bat once again, has taken advantage of the change.
So far this year, Gonzalez is swinging at 48.7 percent of the pitches he's been thrown, way up from where he was two years ago when he set a career high with 117 walks. Additionally, he's making more contact than he ever has before, putting the bat on the ball 84.9 percent of the time compared to a career contact rate of just 77.5 percent. The biggest difference is on pitches out of the strike zone. He's making contact on 77.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone, compared to just 57.9 percent for his career. By swinging more often -- and perhaps more importantly, missing less frequently -- Gonzalez is finding himself in at-bats that end more quickly and are less likely to result in a free pass.
Why is Gonzalez making more contact? It's impossible to pin it down to any one factor, especially considering we're still dealing with just more than one month's worth of data, but it seems like Gonzalez is taking advantage of the Green Monster and a far more hitter-friendly environment than he was used to in San Diego. For his career, 27 percent of balls he has put in play have gone to left field, and he has a career batting average on balls in play to left field of .337. This year, 33 percent of the balls he has put in play have been to left and his BABIP on balls hit to the opposite field is .459. The ability to pepper balls off of the tall wall in Boston has likely emboldened Gonzalez to chase pitches on the outer half of the plate with more frequency, since he's confident that he can get enough on it to bounce it off the Monster rather than having a left fielder track it down in Petco.
Gonzalez is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than he has in any other year of his career, and he's getting better results on balls hit to left field than ever before. It is unlikely that those two changes are coincidental, especially considering what we know about how Petco and Fenway treat hitters. With better hitters around him and a short fence inviting him to swing away, Gonzalez is returning to the more aggressive approach that he showed earlier in his career.
While I doubt that Gonzalez will end the year with the kind of walk rate you'd expect from a hacking middle infielder, it's also unlikely that he'll post the same kind of walk totals he did in San Diego. Gonzalez likes to swing the bat, and now that he's been given some protection and a better ballpark in which to do so, he seems determined to prove what he can do when he's allowed to swing regularly.
Therefore, it made complete sense when the Red Sox gave up a big chunk of their farm system to acquire Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres this past winter. Gonzalez fit the type perfectly, having drawn 212 walks over the prior two seasons and showing one of the most patient approaches of any hitter in baseball. He was viewed as the quintessential Boston hitter, and it was no surprise that the Red Sox chose to replace the free-swinging Adrian Beltre with a player who was more their style.
Only a funny thing has happened to Gonzalez since he arrived in Boston -- he has stopped taking walks, and is producing as a very different type of hitter than what the Red Sox might have thought they were getting when they traded for him. Through his first 164 plate appearances in Boston, Gonzalez has drawn just 11 walks, and two of those were intentional. To put that in context, he has one fewer walk than noted swing-at-anything maven Ichiro Suzuki, and only one more unintentional walk than Jeff Francoeur, whose aggressive approach at the plate has made him a lightning rod for criticism over the years.
When a usually patient hitter stops walking, it is often referenced as evidence that the player is pressing or trying to do too much. It is a common explanation for why hitters are slumping, especially if they've changed teams and are feeling the pressure of living up to their new city's expectations. However, Gonzalez isn't slumping at all. He's hitting .329/.378/.566 and he's on pace to have the best offensive season of his career. So, how do we explain Gonzalez's success while also understanding that he's doing it in an entirely different way than he was in San Diego?
I think the key is to understand that Gonzalez has never been as patient a hitter as his walk rate would suggest. In November of 2009, I wrote an article for FanGraphs suggesting that the huge spike in his walk rate had less to do with Gonzalez's skills and more to do with the inferior talent that the Padres surrounded him with. Since he was the only offensive threat in San Diego the past two years, pitchers had no real reason to challenge him, and thus he was fed a steady diet of pitches out of the strike zone.
In Boston, that's obviously not the case, as Gonzalez is surrounded by other quality major league hitters. Pitchers can no longer simply put him on base and expect to get an inning-ending double play from the next batter due up. Gonzalez, apparently buoyed by his chance to swing the bat once again, has taken advantage of the change.
So far this year, Gonzalez is swinging at 48.7 percent of the pitches he's been thrown, way up from where he was two years ago when he set a career high with 117 walks. Additionally, he's making more contact than he ever has before, putting the bat on the ball 84.9 percent of the time compared to a career contact rate of just 77.5 percent. The biggest difference is on pitches out of the strike zone. He's making contact on 77.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone, compared to just 57.9 percent for his career. By swinging more often -- and perhaps more importantly, missing less frequently -- Gonzalez is finding himself in at-bats that end more quickly and are less likely to result in a free pass.
Why is Gonzalez making more contact? It's impossible to pin it down to any one factor, especially considering we're still dealing with just more than one month's worth of data, but it seems like Gonzalez is taking advantage of the Green Monster and a far more hitter-friendly environment than he was used to in San Diego. For his career, 27 percent of balls he has put in play have gone to left field, and he has a career batting average on balls in play to left field of .337. This year, 33 percent of the balls he has put in play have been to left and his BABIP on balls hit to the opposite field is .459. The ability to pepper balls off of the tall wall in Boston has likely emboldened Gonzalez to chase pitches on the outer half of the plate with more frequency, since he's confident that he can get enough on it to bounce it off the Monster rather than having a left fielder track it down in Petco.
Gonzalez is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than he has in any other year of his career, and he's getting better results on balls hit to left field than ever before. It is unlikely that those two changes are coincidental, especially considering what we know about how Petco and Fenway treat hitters. With better hitters around him and a short fence inviting him to swing away, Gonzalez is returning to the more aggressive approach that he showed earlier in his career.
While I doubt that Gonzalez will end the year with the kind of walk rate you'd expect from a hacking middle infielder, it's also unlikely that he'll post the same kind of walk totals he did in San Diego. Gonzalez likes to swing the bat, and now that he's been given some protection and a better ballpark in which to do so, he seems determined to prove what he can do when he's allowed to swing regularly.
Top 10 Mock Draft.
Spoiler [+]
Here's my first top-10 projection, which I unveiled on Thursday's edition of "College Baseball Live" on ESPNU. I've also included some notes on each of the teams' preferences and some other assorted rumors. You can also check out my full top-100 rankings, which were updated on Thursday.
We're still 25 days out from the start of the Rule 4 draft, so it is incredibly early for this, but I think we know enough about some of these teams' preferences to at least offer an educated guess.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
This is not a lock by any means, as Cole hasn't been as impressive his past three outings as he was early in the spring, and Pittsburgh is looking at Anthony Rendon and Danny Hultzen as alternatives.
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
This pick may come down to Rendon's medical records, which I'm told is at the scouting bureau but not yet released to clubs by Rendon's family. If it checks out, he's Seattle's guy. If not, they're also linked to Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen's gone, and he could be, Arizona is also all over Bubba Starling, who had a capital-d Day in front of GM Kevin Towers.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
All else being equal, they'd prefer a college player, and would love Hultzen but seem unlikely to get him. Also hearing them on Dylan Bundy and to a lesser degree on Starling and Lindor. Early interest in Jed Bradley seems to have faded.
5. Kansas City Royals: Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
The near-universal sentiment has them taking a college pitcher -- Cole if he's here -- or the college-pitcher-like Dylan Bundy. Although one source insists they are all over Lindor as well and won't let him get past them.
6. Washington Nationals: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Washington originally thought they'd get Meyer with the 23rd pick, which they got as compensation for Adam Dunn signing with the White Sox, but Meyer has pitched way too well down the stretch for that to happen. If they want Meyer they'd have to take him here. Other names in this spot include Hultzen, Bauer, or Barnes if they get this far, but they wouldn't do Bundy, Sonny Gray, or Taylor Jungmann. I've also heard the Nats on outfielder Brian Goodwin with the 23rd pick.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Yes. the D-backs have two picks in the top 10. This one comes as compensation for failing to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux. Bundy shouldn't get this far, but the top six is full of teams that prefer college players. This could also be another landing spot for Bauer.
8. Cleveland Indians: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
They covet Bauer, but I can't see him getting that far right now with Baltimore and Washington interested. Have also heard Lindor here and Oklahoma prep righty Archie Bradley.
9. Chicago Cubs: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Starling has no business getting this far, but concerns about a big price tag -- I'm hearing he wants Bryce Harper money -- have some teams passing. If he's gone, other names here include Bradley, George Springer and Gray.
10. San Diego Padres: Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy Have also heard Gray and Barnes with this unprotected pick, as well as Cory Spangenberg, a player who'll definitely sign for slot.
I'll revisit this on Tuesday with a projection of the entire first round.
We're still 25 days out from the start of the Rule 4 draft, so it is incredibly early for this, but I think we know enough about some of these teams' preferences to at least offer an educated guess.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
This is not a lock by any means, as Cole hasn't been as impressive his past three outings as he was early in the spring, and Pittsburgh is looking at Anthony Rendon and Danny Hultzen as alternatives.
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
This pick may come down to Rendon's medical records, which I'm told is at the scouting bureau but not yet released to clubs by Rendon's family. If it checks out, he's Seattle's guy. If not, they're also linked to Florida prep shortstop Francisco Lindor.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen's gone, and he could be, Arizona is also all over Bubba Starling, who had a capital-d Day in front of GM Kevin Towers.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
All else being equal, they'd prefer a college player, and would love Hultzen but seem unlikely to get him. Also hearing them on Dylan Bundy and to a lesser degree on Starling and Lindor. Early interest in Jed Bradley seems to have faded.
5. Kansas City Royals: Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
The near-universal sentiment has them taking a college pitcher -- Cole if he's here -- or the college-pitcher-like Dylan Bundy. Although one source insists they are all over Lindor as well and won't let him get past them.
6. Washington Nationals: Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
Washington originally thought they'd get Meyer with the 23rd pick, which they got as compensation for Adam Dunn signing with the White Sox, but Meyer has pitched way too well down the stretch for that to happen. If they want Meyer they'd have to take him here. Other names in this spot include Hultzen, Bauer, or Barnes if they get this far, but they wouldn't do Bundy, Sonny Gray, or Taylor Jungmann. I've also heard the Nats on outfielder Brian Goodwin with the 23rd pick.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
Yes. the D-backs have two picks in the top 10. This one comes as compensation for failing to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux. Bundy shouldn't get this far, but the top six is full of teams that prefer college players. This could also be another landing spot for Bauer.
8. Cleveland Indians: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
They covet Bauer, but I can't see him getting that far right now with Baltimore and Washington interested. Have also heard Lindor here and Oklahoma prep righty Archie Bradley.
9. Chicago Cubs: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Starling has no business getting this far, but concerns about a big price tag -- I'm hearing he wants Bryce Harper money -- have some teams passing. If he's gone, other names here include Bradley, George Springer and Gray.
10. San Diego Padres: Francisco Lindor, SS, Montverde Academy Have also heard Gray and Barnes with this unprotected pick, as well as Cory Spangenberg, a player who'll definitely sign for slot.
I'll revisit this on Tuesday with a projection of the entire first round.
- 9,622
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venom lyrix
- 9,622
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venom lyrix
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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- Apr 5, 2005
Would have been dope if he threw back to back no hitters.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,551
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- Apr 5, 2005
Would have been dope if he threw back to back no hitters.
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- Jan 3, 2011
Holy !+%*, Omar Infante.
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Holy !+%*, Omar Infante.
- 31,930
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- Aug 2, 2006
Jose Bautista has a .969 OPS this year . . . WITH TWO STRIKES.
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Jose Bautista has a .969 OPS this year . . . WITH TWO STRIKES.
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- Nov 18, 2010
Wow....that's just absolutely absurd, regardless of sample size.
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Wow....that's just absolutely absurd, regardless of sample size.
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I hit up my friend tonight to ask him about Bryce Harper since he played against him this past week, and my friend was playing Tiger Woods and drinking beer with Manny Machado. I'm jelly.
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I hit up my friend tonight to ask him about Bryce Harper since he played against him this past week, and my friend was playing Tiger Woods and drinking beer with Manny Machado. I'm jelly.
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- Oct 16, 2006
Mark Ellis OPS this year, .460
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Mark Ellis OPS this year, .460
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The Charleston RiverDogs (Yankees Class A affiliate) and the Greenville Drive (Red Sox Class A affiliate) got into a nice brawl last night:
Slade Heathcott of Charleston was hit by a pitch and almost immediately went after the catcher. Maybe the catcher said something to set him off?
Slade Heathcott of Charleston was hit by a pitch and almost immediately went after the catcher. Maybe the catcher said something to set him off?
- 7,805
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- Jul 2, 2006
The Charleston RiverDogs (Yankees Class A affiliate) and the Greenville Drive (Red Sox Class A affiliate) got into a nice brawl last night:
Slade Heathcott of Charleston was hit by a pitch and almost immediately went after the catcher. Maybe the catcher said something to set him off?
Slade Heathcott of Charleston was hit by a pitch and almost immediately went after the catcher. Maybe the catcher said something to set him off?
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- Jul 2, 2006
Originally Posted by CP1708
That's a pretty damn good fight there. Surprised it only lasted a minute. I saw some kicks, couple good punches, make that swings, not all of them landed.
Did you see the flying clothesline at the 0:12 mark?
This feature piece about Heathcott was published that Friday before the game. No idea if it had anything to do with what led to the beaning but it really opened my eyes about Heathcott and what he's been through growing up (the first line of the story should open eyes enough)
http://www.postandcourier...ay/13/tale-of-salvation/
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Originally Posted by CP1708
That's a pretty damn good fight there. Surprised it only lasted a minute. I saw some kicks, couple good punches, make that swings, not all of them landed.
Did you see the flying clothesline at the 0:12 mark?
This feature piece about Heathcott was published that Friday before the game. No idea if it had anything to do with what led to the beaning but it really opened my eyes about Heathcott and what he's been through growing up (the first line of the story should open eyes enough)
http://www.postandcourier...ay/13/tale-of-salvation/
- Status