2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Osh Kosh Bosh said:
CLIFF NOTES:


1. Power didn't really rise in the steroid era, if you account for the juiced ball and the gradual increase in power throughout baseballs history.
2. All gained muscle mass doesn't translate to on the field power

Conclusion

The effects of steroids on hitting a baseball are HAZY and ill defined, to assume that giving any player steroids automatically accounts for an increase in offensive performance goes against basically all the information we have about power numbers in the 90's and 00's, and medical information on the effects of increased mass on your ability to hit a baseball.

There is far more information, confirming the negative effects that FATIGUE have on hand high coordinations and eye sight, once again emphasizing my initial point.

AMPHETAMINES>STEROIDS.

Metal alertness> mucle mass.
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I agree with pretty much everything posted. What people don't realize is how much of a difference a harder/juiced baseball makes. I have mixture of MLB, big12, and the HS federation Diamond balls mixed in my BP bucket. When hitting off a tee there is a noticeable difference in exit speed and distance (legit 10-15 feet) with the MLB balls compared to anything else.
 
Batman with another no hitter :pimp:

I've always liked Homer, this year he's been very close to ace like.

Going back to the steroid thing, what gets me sometimes is how it's heresey to talk about the older folks. We know Aaron did what he had to do to get ahead but he's never crucified. I'm the biggest Yankee fan you'll find and I know Maris had to be doing something as well. Pattern fits to what happens to today's stars (big peak, big crash, lots of injuries).
 
Proshares said:
Batman with another no hitter :pimp:

I've always liked Homer, this year he's been very close to ace like.
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? He has been pretty inconsistent this year. Improving on that but still not an ace. Definitely he the stuff for it to happen at some point
 
You think? ERA is fooling people a bit but I think he's been pretty close to the top of the NL this year. Maybe four bad starts from what I've seen. FIP and xFIP near the top of the NL, striking out 1 per inning, walking fewer batters and really limiting HR's in that band box. I think he's something like 4th or 5th in pitching WAR in the NL too.
 
I don't know what all that means but from watching/listening to all the games, I do. As I said had the stuff to be an ace but still has work to go
 
:lol: just ask.

FIP.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

A walk is not as harmful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these kinds of differences, presenting the results on the same scale as ERA. It has been shown to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.

For those curious, here’s the formula for FIP:

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. You can find historical FIP constant values here, or you can derive the constant by taking league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA.

Context:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average FIP varies on a year-by-year basis so that it is always the same as league-average ERA. To see the league-average FIP for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Rating FIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 4.00
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00

Things to Remember:

● Voros McCracken’s research was called Defense Independent Pitching Theory (DIPs Theory). It’s the building block of much of today’s pitching analysis. It can be a tricky concept to understand and counter-intuitive for most baseball fans. Refer to our sections on DIPs, BABIP, and Luck for more information.

● FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings.

xFIP.

Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.

Home run rates are generally unstable over time and fluctuate around league-average, so by estimating a pitcher’s home run total, xFIP attempts to isolate a player’s ability level. A pitcher may allow home runs on 12% of their flyballs one year, then turn around and only allow 7% the next year. HR/FB ratios can be very difficult to predict, so xFIP attempts to correct for that.

Here is the full formula for xFIP. Notice how it is almost exactly the same as the formula for FIP, with the lone difference being how each accounts for home runs:

xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. You can find historical FIP constant values here, or you can derive the constant by taking league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA. League-average home run per fly ball rate varies on a yearly basis, but you can find those values here on the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Along with FIP, xFIP is one of the best metrics at predicting a pitcher’s future performance. Since it was created, though, there have been some studies that suggest certain pitchers can post lower-than-average HR/FB rates over time. For more information on this, see the statistic SIERA.

Context:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average xFIP varies on a year-by-year basis so that it is always the same as league-average ERA. To see the league-average xFIP for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Rating xFIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 4.00
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00

Things to Remember:

● While HR/FB ratios are generally unstable over time, some pitchers are still more prone to allowing home runs than others. If a pitcher has a long history of over- or under-performing the league average with their HR/FB rate, then you can reasonably expect them to perform closer to their career average than the league-average. In cases like this, xFIP may overestimate or underestimate a player’s true talent level by assuming a league average HR/FB ratio. Again, for more, see SIERA.

● Ground ball pitchers typically have higher HR/FB ratios than fly ball pitchers.

● xFIP has one of the highest correlations with future ERA of all the pitching metrics. Only SIERA out-paces it.
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I haven't seen/heard his starts live but I've seen the majority of them in the days after. He has the look like he's figured it out for the most part.
 
Last edited:
Bailey has great stuff, but is pretty inconsistent start to start regardless of what his numbers say as a whole.
 
Since yesterday was Bobby Bonilla day, and he gets like $1.3 million every July 2nd for the next 800 years, does anyone know what exactly he is up to these days? Why hasnt there been a 30 for 30 or and ESPN 60 on him?
 
ShannonsCrooks said:
Since yesterday was Bobby Bonilla day, and he gets like $1.3 million every July 2nd for the next 800 years, does anyone know what exactly he is up to these days? Why hasnt there been a 30 for 30 or and ESPN 60 on him?
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Living the ******g life...

This is from 2011, but I doubt much has changed:

Bonilla bought a couple of racehorses along the way and a fleet of luxury cars, including a Bentley and an antique Porsche. For open-air touring, there were four or five cus tom-made Harley-Davidson motorcycles, according to his ex-wife, Migdalia Bonilla.

The Bronx-born ballplayer has a pilot's license, so he grabs the controls of his own Cessna or uses a time-share jet for his frequent jaunts to his family's ancestral Puerto Rico or to Bradenton, Fla., where his 17-year-old son is a promising prep-school pitcher.

He sank about $2 million into fixing up the family's stately white manse, tricking out the crib with high-tech gadgets.

"He wanted to redo it to be a 'smart house,' with a lot of technology," said his ex, a high-school sweetheart Bonilla divorced in 2009 after 23 years of marriage.

For walking-around money, he holds a cushy $200,000-a-

year job as a "special assistant" at the MLB Players Association in Manhattan but doesn't have to go into the office.
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Link
 
Proshares said:
:lol: just ask.

FIP.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

A walk is not as harmful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these kinds of differences, presenting the results on the same scale as ERA. It has been shown to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.

For those curious, here’s the formula for FIP:

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. You can find historical FIP constant values here, or you can derive the constant by taking league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA.

Context:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average FIP varies on a year-by-year basis so that it is always the same as league-average ERA. To see the league-average FIP for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Rating FIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 4.00
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00

Things to Remember:

● Voros McCracken’s research was called Defense Independent Pitching Theory (DIPs Theory). It’s the building block of much of today’s pitching analysis. It can be a tricky concept to understand and counter-intuitive for most baseball fans. Refer to our sections on DIPs, BABIP, and Luck for more information.

● FIP does a better job of predicting the future than measuring the present, as there can be a lot of fluctuation in small samples. It is less effective in describing a pitcher’s single game performance and is more appropriate in a season’s worth of innings.

xFIP.

Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is a regressed version of FIP, developed by Dave Studeman from The Hardball Times. It’s calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed. This estimate is calculated by taking the league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% depending on the year) and multiplying it by a pitcher’s fly ball rate.

Home run rates are generally unstable over time and fluctuate around league-average, so by estimating a pitcher’s home run total, xFIP attempts to isolate a player’s ability level. A pitcher may allow home runs on 12% of their flyballs one year, then turn around and only allow 7% the next year. HR/FB ratios can be very difficult to predict, so xFIP attempts to correct for that.

Here is the full formula for xFIP. Notice how it is almost exactly the same as the formula for FIP, with the lone difference being how each accounts for home runs:

xFIP = ((13*(Flyballs * League-average HR/FB rate))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant

The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale and is generally around 3.20. You can find historical FIP constant values here, or you can derive the constant by taking league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA. League-average home run per fly ball rate varies on a yearly basis, but you can find those values here on the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Along with FIP, xFIP is one of the best metrics at predicting a pitcher’s future performance. Since it was created, though, there have been some studies that suggest certain pitchers can post lower-than-average HR/FB rates over time. For more information on this, see the statistic SIERA.

Context:

Please note that the following chart is meant as an estimate, and that league-average xFIP varies on a year-by-year basis so that it is always the same as league-average ERA. To see the league-average xFIP for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards.

Rating xFIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.25
Above Average 3.75
Average 4.00
Below Average 4.20
Poor 4.50
Awful 5.00

Things to Remember:

● While HR/FB ratios are generally unstable over time, some pitchers are still more prone to allowing home runs than others. If a pitcher has a long history of over- or under-performing the league average with their HR/FB rate, then you can reasonably expect them to perform closer to their career average than the league-average. In cases like this, xFIP may overestimate or underestimate a player’s true talent level by assuming a league average HR/FB ratio. Again, for more, see SIERA.

● Ground ball pitchers typically have higher HR/FB ratios than fly ball pitchers.

● xFIP has one of the highest correlations with future ERA of all the pitching metrics. Only SIERA out-paces it.
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I haven't seen/heard his starts live but I've seen the majority of them in the days after. He has the look like he's figured it out for the most part.
Click to expand...

400
 
Thanks for the link. God bless him.

He also remains on the Baltimore Orioles' payroll. That team's $500,000-per-annum deferred payments began two months ago and extend until 2015. But he has to split that loot with the ex-wife.
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This dude...........:nthat:
 
Jewbacca said:
Bailey has great stuff, but is pretty inconsistent start to start regardless of what his numbers say as a whole.
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I disagree but I'm not going to go back and forth about Bailey :lol: I think he's going to continue to have good success this year.
 
CertifiedFlyBoi23 said:
Papelbon is a hater
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I doubt that Papelbon is the only Major Leaguer that has the opinion he does about Puig and the ASG.  Even as a Giants fan, I personally want to see Puig get the invite....but I totally see Papelbon's and others players' issues with it.
 
CertifiedFlyBoi23 said:
Papelbon is a hater
Click to expand...
dland24 said:
I doubt that Papelbon is the only Major Leaguer that has the opinion he does about Puig and the ASG.  Even as a Giants fan, I personally want to see Puig get the invite....but I totally see Papelbon's and others players' issues with it.
Click to expand...

I see where Papelbon is coming from but the way he purposely butchered Puig's name and said "pig" is why I called him a hater...
 
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