2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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From John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Was Votto for Bautista in the works?
We know that the Reds swung and missed on the trade front on Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn and Ubaldo Jimenez. But is there a chance they were working on something much bigger?



A reader tipped me a while back that he has a friend in baseball who told him the Reds were talking to the Blue Jays about a trade Jose Bautista-for-Joey Votto trade. The Reds would have had to kick in a prospect as well.

I get tips like that from time to time. I usually dismiss them. But the fact that the Blue Jays sent a scout to Dayton to specifically watch Daniel Corcino, probably the Reds best pitching prospect, tells me they were talking trade with the Reds.

Votto-for-Bautista makes sense on several levels for the Reds:

–It opens a spot for Yonder Alonso.

–It fills left field with about as good bat as you could possibly hope for. Bautista is hitting .324 with 31 home runs and 71 RBI.

–Bautista is signed through 2015 at $14 million per year. He has an option for 2016 at the same number. Votto is cheaper next year at $9.5 million, but he makes $17 million in 2013 after which he’s a free agent. And he made clear when he signed his current contract that he was only interested in a three-year deal.

The Blue Jays, of course, would get their hometown hero — a player who could sell tickets.

The Reds would never confirm that they were talking about a trade like that. And there may be nothing to it. But it’s certainly interesting to consider. 
 
Ackley or Strasburg.

Spoiler [+]
Two years ago, the top two picks in the June draft were pretty obvious – Stephen Strasburg was going to go #1 and Dustin Ackley was going to go #2. Strasburg was the best pitching prospect in the draft’s history, while Ackley had comfortably settled in as the low-risk college position player option. Because of the enormous difference in perceived potential, there was no real question that the Nationals would take Strasburg #1, even with the greater chance of risk associated with drafting a pitcher. I made the case for Ackley at the time, but even I admitted that, given the #1 pick, I’d take Strasburg too.

Now, though, a lot has changed. Strasburg had a remarkable ascent and debut in the big leagues, but then also had to go under the knife and has spent the last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Ackley, meanwhile, had some pedestrian numbers in the minor leagues, took longer to get to the show, but has made a pretty nifty little splash since he got there.

In fact, I thought it might be interesting to point out that Ackley’s performance in the big leagues is roughly comparable to what Strasburg did in his time in the Majors before his arm gave out. Strasburg made 12 starts for the Nationals last summer, throwing 68 innings in those dozen appearances. The number of innings essentially represented about 1/3 of a full-season, as the Nationals would not have let him rack up more than the 204 innings that would project out to over 36 starts. In that 1/3 of a season, Strasburg was worth +2.6 WAR, or a +7.8 WAR full-season pace.

Since arriving in the big leagues in mid-June, Ackley has racked up 150 plate appearances in 37 games, about as close to a 1/4 mark of a full-season as you’ll get. He’s shown far more power than expected and has handled himself pretty well at second base; his .311/.373/.556 line has been worth +1.9 WAR so far. Multiply that out to a full-season, and he’s on pace for +7.6 WAR, basically an identically valuable season to Strasburg’s debut pace.

Of course, what made Strasburg’s debut so remarkable wasn’t his results but how he got them, throwing 100 MPH fastballs with ease and breaking off sick 90+ MPH breaking balls and changeups. He was a pitching freak, doing things with his right arm that we had never seen before. Ackley, on the other hand, is still a slender guy who barely looks like a Major Leaguer, and he’s producing his value through doubles, triples, and a lack of strikeouts. It’s not nearly as sexy, and he simply isn’t the kind of must-see-TV that Strasburg was last summer.

Still, though, whether it’s as physically impressive or not, it should at least be noted that Ackley has essentially matched Strasburg in terms of production during their first summer in the big leagues. The argument for Strasburg over Ackley was always that there was an enormous difference in potential upside, and that the gulf in reward made up for the expected differences in risk as well. When Strasburg dominated the league last summer, it was seen as confirmation of his ridiculous talents. I’m guessing that what Ackley is doing now is seen as more of a small-sample fluke, a hot streak that he just won’t keep up. The difference is the lingering power of perception.

Strasburg has great talent, Ackley has low risk, and if Mr. Low Risk happens to match Mr. Big Talent in performance, well, it won’t last. But, perhaps when considering which one we’d rather have going forward, we should at least consider that when put to the test against big league opposition, there hasn’t been much of a difference between the two in terms of production. Perhaps we underestimated the upside of Mr. Low Risk.

Given where we are now, with Strasburg headed out for a rehab assignment soon and likely to be back on the hill in a month or so, I’m curious about who you’d rather have in your organization. I just ranked Strasburg #26 in the Trade Value series, while Ackley didn’t appear anywhere on the list, so my perception is that most people will still strongly prefer the elite arm and take the extra risk associated. Given how well Ackley is performing, and how much more likely he is to stay healthy long term, though, I wonder if that’s the right call.

Deadline Recap: Position player upgrades.

Spoiler [+]
With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.

To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.

Atlanta Braves: Center Field

Braves wRAA from CF: -6.2 (25th in MLB)

Incumbent Jordan Schafer: -8.8 wRAA

Replacement Michael Bourn: 3.6 wRAA

Total Swing: 12.4 runs

Comments: That’s a one-win swing just on offense, which is huge for the Braves. It helps ensure their Wild Card lead, and perhaps will close the gap a bit between them and the Phillies. Again, this is a case where ZiPS ROS has undersold a player’s performance to date. Bourn currently has a .353 wOBA, so if he keeps the hot hitting going he’ll be even more of an upgrade — 7.6 wRAA, or a swing of more than 1.5 wins, just on offense.

Detroit Tigers: Third Base

Tigers wRAA from 3B: -20.9 (27th in MLB)

Incumbent Brandon Inge: -5.0 wRAA

Replacement Wilson Betemit: 1.6 wRAA

Total Swing: 6.6 runs

Comments: Inge was clearly done, both on offense and defense, and his ZiPS rest of season projection, .290 wOBA, was probably greatly generous. The other guy they’ve had playing third, Don Kelly, hits a similar ZiPS projection. Betemit, then, will net them more than half a win on offense going forward.

San Francisco Giants: Left Field

Giants wRAA from LF: 1.7 (13th in MLB)

Incumbent Cody Ross: 4.0 wRAA

Replacement Carlos Beltran: 10.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 6.6 runs.

Comments: The Giants have gone through many outfielders this year without much luck. Bringing in Beltran helps solidify that unit, and the lineup as a whole. They’re also probably expecting a bit more than his projected ROS stats, which are based on a .367 wOBA; he produced a .381 wOBA with the Mets.

Cleveland Indians: Right Field

Indians wRAA from RF: -13.2 (29th in MLB)

Incumbent Austin Kearns: -4.2 wRAA

Replacement Kosuke Fukudome: 1.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 5.6 runs

Comments: There was little chance that Kearns was getting 230 more PA this season, considering he doesn’t have that many to date. But he was part of a RF platoon with Travis Buck, and -4.2 wRAA is about the best we could expect from that tandem. Fukudome is a half win better than that on offense, despite his complete lack of power. There is a wild card here, in that Shin-Soo Choo is due back from the disabled list. His ZiPS ROS, based on a generous 150 PA, is 5.2 wRAA.

San Francisco Giants: Shortstop

Giants wRAA from SS: -28.7 (30th in MLB)

Incumbent Brandon Crawford: -8.4 wRAA

Replacement Orlando Cabrera: -4.0 wRAA

Total Swing: 4.4 runs

Comments: You could do a pick ‘em among the three guys with time at shortstop for the Giants — Crawford, Mike Fontenot, and Miguel Tejada — and come up with a below-average producer with the bat. Crawford was in there for his defense, which makes a degree of sense. But both Tejada and Fontenot have ZiPS ROS projections right in line with Cabrera’s. Are the Giants really getting that much better defense from Cabrera? I guess they considered him a better bet than the other two.

St. Louis Cardinals: Shortstop

Cardinals wRAA from SS: -9.7 (18th in MLB)

Incumbent Ryan Theriot: -3.8 wRAA

Replacement Rafael Furcal: -0.2 wRAA

Total Swing: 3.6 runs

Comments: Again, the idea here is that Furcal outperforms his ZiPS ROS projection. It’s tough to imagine, since he’s been nothing but terrible this season. Perhaps he’s a change of scenery guy who will pick it up. That’s what the Cardinals have to hope for. Otherwise, he’s probably going to perform worse at the plate than Theriot.

Pittsburgh Pirates: First Base

Pirates wRAA from 1B: -12.0 (27th in MLB)

Incumbent Lyle Overbay: 1.0 wRAA

Replacement Derrek Lee: 4.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 3.4 runs

Comments: It’s not a huge upgrade, but it’s definitely something. Both Overbay and Lee have underperformed their projections to date, though it has Overbay as the overall worse option. There are issues with Lee, both in his performance and in terms of RHB at PNC Park, but he’d be hard pressed to perform worse than Overbay. The Pirates will gain a few marginal runs for it, and it’s not as though Lee cost them much to acquire.

Philadelphia Phillies: Right Field

Phillies wRAA from RF: -3.6 (22nd in MLB)

Incumbent Domonic Brown: 7.0 wRAA

Replacement Hunter Pence: 7.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 0.4 runs

Comments: Clearly the Phillies did not believe that Brown’s ROS projection of a .350 wOBA was accurate. Then again, this move was as much for the future as it was for 2011. They’ll head into 2012 with an outfield of Brown, Pence, and Shane Victorino. In terms of 2011 it’s still an upgrade of sorts, since Brown produced only 1.6 wRAA during his time in right. Of course, the Phillies still might be best served by replacing Raul Ibanez and his 0.4 wRAA in left.

Late trade stuff but good reads.

Boston fortifies rotation with Bedard.

Spoiler [+]
For many pundits, the Boston Red Sox were the clear best team in baseball this year. Ever since a 2-10 start, the Sox have won over two-thirds of their games, with a stellar 64-30 record. They lead the American League in both actual record and first-order (Pythagorean) record, and their 67.8-37.2 third-order record is a full two games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies.

But even the best teams are rarely without weakness, and with Clay Buchholz‘s status uncertain, the Red Sox found themselves with some shallowness in their rotation. Sure, John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield would have no problem bringing an offense with as much firepower as Boston’s to the playoffs, particularly with an 8.5 game lead on Los Angeles for the Wild Card if they can’t hold their 2 game lead on New York in the East. But in the playoffs, the Red Sox will have to get by potent offenses such as the Yankees and the Rangers, and with Lackey and Miller as the third and fourth options out of the rotation, the Red Sox had a clear need to upgrade.

Upgrade they did, as the Red Sox pulled a three-way deadline deal to add Erik Bedard from the Mariners. To swing the deal, the Red Sox sent prospects C Tim Federowicz, RP Juan Rodriguez and SP Stephen Fife to the Dodgers in order to acquire OF Trayvon Robinson, who was then flipped along with OF Chih-Hsien Chang to the Mariners, bringing RP Josh Fields back as well as Bedard.

It’s fair to wonder if the Red Sox would have pushed so hard for a starter (An earlier deal for Rich Harden was nixed due to health problems. The sun rises in the east.) if not for the uncertainty surrounding Clay Buchholz. The 26-year-old righty was transferred to the 60-day disabled list on Sunday and depending on the results of a second opinion on his ailing back, could be done for the year.

Health is an obvious concern with Bedard, as his 91 innings this season are his most since throwing 182 in 2007. Seeing as his health — or that of any other possible acquisition — over the rest of the regular season will hardly impact the Red Sox playoff odds, Bedard made the perfect target for Boston. They needed a pitcher who could handle playoff-level offenses but wouldn’t come at much of a cost for the future (see Jimenez, Ubaldo).

If he’s on the playoff roster, Bedard is a clear upgrade over Miller and Wakefield, and a good bet to improve on Lackey as well. SafeCo Field deserves an assist for his 3.31 ERA since his trade to Seattle, but he still checks in at a sharp 82 ERA-, and 4.3 WAR (based on FIP) in 255 innings is solid as well. Lackey could very well improve on his poor numbers to date (152 ERA-, 0.7 WAR), as he is coming off a 4.0 WAR season in 2010, but it’s awfully difficult to put a 6.20 ERA in a good light. Miller and Wakefield have been poor, each with an ERA over 5.00 and FIPs to match; Bedard’s superiority should be obvious.

It did take four warm bodies to acquire Bedard, but that’s about it. None of the players moved by Boston appear on Kevin Goldstein’s top 20 organizational prospect list, nor do they appear in our Top 100 Prospects list or top 10 organizational prospect list. This isn’t to say they’re doomed to complete non-productivity in the Major Leagues — the prospects will be covered in a separate post — but the Red Sox don’t lose much from a good farm system and improve their chances at a World Series. Hard to argue with that logic.

Adams joins reformed Rangers bullpen.

Spoiler [+]
After weeks of rumors about the Padres and Rangers being engaged in talks for closer Heath Bell, the teams pulled off a deal… involving setup man Mike Adams.

The Rangers, fresh off of acquiring Koji Uehara on Saturday, sent pitching prospects Robert Erlin and Joseph Wieland to San Diego to bring aboard arguably the best non-closing relief pitcher in the game. Since joining the Padres in 2008, Adams has thrown 217 innings with the following pertinent numbers: 137 (!) hits, 10.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP, 1.66 ERA and 2.48 SIERA. He ranks towards the top in each of those categories, and his 5.2 WAR in the span is the highest among setup men and middle relievers in the National League, and second to Matt Thornton across both leagues.

Simply put, Mike Adams is one of the very best relievers in baseball, regardless of whether or not he closes out the ninth inning, and was the top reliever on the market. Right behind him was Uehara, who has been equally filthy over the last two seasons. In acquiring both pitchers, the Rangers fixed a significant deficiency: the bullpen.

Through the weekend, the Rangers had the worst bullpen in the American League at -0.7 WAR. Something tells the formidable back-end trio of Neftali Feliz, Adams and Uehara will move them out of the cellar. Plus, both acquired relievers are under contract or control for the 2012 season, so this isn’t a situation where the Rangers send a bevy of prospects away for short rentals. Relievers don’t tally much in the way of wins above replacement to begin with, but Uehara and Adams are so effective that the difference between them and the players bumped from the roster is significant.

The pitching prospects heading to San Diego were both in Double-A, but project perfectly for the spacious PETCO Park. Both Erlin and Wieland rely on their savvy and command to beat up on the opposition, but their offerings won’t appear filthy to major league hitters. Marc Hulet ranked Erlin as the 4th best prospect in the Rangers system prior to the season, while Wieland fell out of the top ten. Baseball America also ranked Erlin 4th, and placed Wieland as the 22nd best prospect in the system. The stocks of both pitchers have risen since the pre-season lists were published and each makes sense for the Padres.

In February, Hulet wrote that Erlin was an undersized lefty, but one that could turn into a 3-WAR starter at the major league level. His minor league numbers have been mighty impressive so far. Last year, he posted a 9.8 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 114 2/3 frames in A-Ball. Moving up to High-A to start the season, his strikeout and walk rates per nine innings actually improved to 10.2 and 0.8, respectively.

His performance merited a promotion to Double-A, where his peripherals have remained strong: an 8.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 66 2/3 frames. When he catches too much up the plate, his offerings aren’t good enough to keep the opposition off-kilter, but his impeccable control should translate to the majors. Nothing wrong with a cost-controlled starter capable of a mid-3s ERA, a 6.5-7 K/9 and a sub-2.0 BB/9.

Wieland similarly relies on the combination of command and control rather than pure stuff, and his peripherals have been equally impressive. Last season he threw 148 innings in A- and High-A, with a 143/25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 129 2/3 innings this year at High-A and Double-A, Wieland has an even more impressive 132/15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Primarily relying on a low-90s fastball and a solid albeit underwhelming curveball, Wieland is also developing his slider and changeup. He isn’t going to turn into a flashy starter in the majors, but he misses bats, limits free passes, and is widely regarded as having baseball smarts in his gameplanning.

The package may seem less impressive than the two major leaguers sent to Baltimore for Uehara, but Erlin and Wieland fit right in line with the Padres plans perhaps more so than Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter fit the Orioles rebuilding process. Don’t be surprised if both Erlin and Wieland occupy the back of the Padres rotation by 2013, at which point Adams and Uehara reach free agency. The Rangers might not have a window, per se, but acquiring Adams completely addresses their most glaring weakness and enhances their odds of both winning the division and succeeding in the playoffs.

Cardinals add Furcal to mix.

Spoiler [+]
In an effort to shore up their interior defense, the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, bringing Rafael Furcal back east in exchange for Double-A outfielder Alex Castellanos. The trade was first reported last night, but could not be made official until Furcal – a 10/5 player – waived his no-trade clause to complete the transaction.

For the Dodgers – who open up for business today 12.5 games out in the National League West – trading Furcal provides the team with some financial relief and opens up a spot for top prospect Dee Gordon at the major-league level. The Dodgers are reportedly picking up $2.5 million on the balance of Furcal’s $6 million salary, but still save over $1 million with the move.

Los Angeles also receives the 24-year-old Castellanos – the owner of a .408 wOBA at the Double-A level this season. Despite his lack of size (listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds) Castellanos has displayed good power, progressing though the Cardinals organization, but relatively poor plate discipline. In addition to the power, he flashes speed on the base paths and could be a serviceable fourth outfielder or the right-handed piece of a platoon.

As mentioned, the Dodgers now have a home for Dee Gordon who was vanquished back to Triple-A earlier in the month. Although Gordon struggled in his initial call up (.245 wOBA in 85 plate appearances), he should get another chance to prove he can handle major-league pitching with Furcal out of the way.

Speaking of Furcal, the 33-year-old has had trouble staying healthy for the third time in four years. In 2011, he has suffered through a broken left thumb and more recently battled with a strained oblique. Furcal’s struggles to stay on the field have leaked in to his play on it. In just 37 games this season, he is hitting .197/.272/.248 with a .241 wOBA. At the same time, the small sample size issue along with injuries and inconsistent playing time because of those injuries render the results almost useless. Furcal is likely much closer to a league average hitter than his current 48 wRC+ suggests.

Getting production from Furcal’s bat would be a nice boon for St. Louis; however, this move should do much more to improve the Cardinals defense than their offense. Ryan Theriot has started 85 games at shortstop for the Cardinals this season. While he has been an average defender in the past, Theriot has cost the team about 10 runs on defense this season with limited range. For a team that relies on groundballs (48.2% team GB rate is second highest in MLB), an average-to-slightly average shortstop like Furcal is a huge asset to have.

Unlike the Giants acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, the Cardinals addition of Furcal should provide ancillary benefits down the stretch. A healthy Furcal is capable of providing sufficient offensive production while upgrading the team’s defense at a key position. At the cost of a fringe prospect and a little over a million dollars, the move is a solid one for St. Louis as they chase the Milwaukee Brewers in a tight NL Central race.

Pirates add to OF with Ludwick.

Spoiler [+]
At the outset the Pirates had a solid plan in the outfield. They flanked superstar center fielder Andrew McCutchen with young up-and-comer Jose Tabata in left, and a platoon of Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz in right. It might not have been the heaviest-hitting outfield combination in the league, but it didn’t appear to be a problem area, either. Since then those plans have hit a few snags. Tabata hit the DL, Jones failed to produce even one batting run above average in the first four months, and Diaz has been an unmitigated disaster at the plate. Rookie Alex Presley helped for a while, but he, too, hit the DL. Their need for outfield help persisted until a few minutes before today’s non-waiver trade deadline, when they acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Padres for a player to be named later.

While Ludwick might sound like an attractive option for the Pirates, he’s really an upgrade in name only. His 2008 season, in which he produced 41.6 runs above average, remains his only standout year. In the year prior, his first with more than 200 PA, he produced just 6.7 runs above average. In the two years following it he combined for 9.9 runs above average. This year he’s at -1.7 runs above average, even with the adjustment for Petco Park. That is, if he’s going to help the Pirates this year he’ll have to somehow benefit from the change of scenery.

While Petco is billed as a big-time pitchers’ park, it plays far tougher for lefties than for righties. According to StatCorner’s park factors, Petco suppresses doubles for righties, but is near average for everything else. In Pittsburgh it’s average for singles and doubles, but triples and homers go to die there. Perhaps Ludwick, who hit 40 doubles in 2008, will produce better by hitting it into the gaps at PNC. But that’s about the only way the move will benefit his offense. Even then, Ludwick has been a poor hitter on the road, producing -2.7 runs above average.

Ludwick might get some regular playing time now, due to injuries, but he’s more likely ticketed for a platoon role once Presley returns (though he could platoon with Jones rather than Presley). That’s the only area where’s he’s been average this year, with a -0.1 wRAA and a 104 wRC+. Yet that hasn’t been his trend career-wise. Against righties he owns a career 118 wRC+, but against lefties it’s just below average at 97. Before this year the only season in which he had a wRC+ of 100 or better against lefties was in 2008*, and even then he hit righties better than lefties. That makes a platoon a bit less palatable, though given the way managers employ platoons it might not stop Clint Hurdle from trying.

Unless the PTBNL is anyone from the first three rounds of the Pirates 2010 draft, they’ll have added Ludwick for a song. That’s a worthy investment on a guy who has had some success in the past. But since his career splits don’t warrant a platoon situation, and since PNC Park eats up right-handed power, he might not be the best fit for the Pirates right now. He can fill in while Presley and Tabata recover, but it’s hard to see him as an upgrade past that. It’s hard to see him having a significant impact on the NL Central race.

Oakland uses Brad Ziegler to free Brandon Allen.

Spoiler [+]
The Athletics traded a reliever and got back a young player that, despite his struggles to date, already has shown more power than anyone on the Oakland roster not named Josh Willingham. Yes, they used Brad Ziegler to (hopefully) free Brandon Allen.

First, the Diamondbacks’ perspective. As much of a head-scratcher as this trade seems to be, there is probably only one redeeming factor. Ziegler is under team control until 2014 and has been one of baseball’s. most consistent relievers so far in his career. Since 2008, he has accrued 2.9 WAR, good for 33rd most among relievers. That’s built on the fourth-best groundball rate over that period as well (62.4%). A career SIERA of 3.49 looks sustainable. Even if he’s not the cheapest arbitration case (he’s already being paid over a million per season), he’s a very good reliever that will cost Arizona less than market value for the next three seasons.

Still, they gave up a bounty to improve their bullpen. And possibly created a hole at first base that they need to fill by trade or callup. For now, that hole will be filled by the recently called up Paul Goldschmidt. Scouts are suspicious of Goldschmidt, but his stats are delicious. The Diamondbacks will give it a chance.

Brandon Allen has flaws. So far, he’s struck out in over a third of his 200 major league plate appearances. His career contact percentage (67.1%) would be fourth-worst in the league if he qualified for the batting title — right between Mike Stanton and Carlos Pena. Even though he’s performed well so far in the outfield, it’s more likely that he’s a first baseman long-term.

And yet Allen still as plenty of potential. He never struck out this much in the minor leagues. His 23% strikeout rate on the farm can be considered a minor red flag, but it does not predict a 35% major league strikeout rate. So far, he’s shown above-average major league power (.191 ISO), so once he connects, the ball does travel. Considering that his 209 PAs have been stretched over three years, it’s also fair to say that none of his major league statistics are really reliable anyway. This 25-year-old is still young enough to find his .267 Triple-A ISO exciting.

Allen does join an organization that has multiple parts that have similar statistical profiles, so it’s unclear how ‘free’ Allen really is now. Probable future first baseman or DH Vernon Chris Carter has a 31.8% major league strikeout rate, a 23.7% MiLB strikeout rate, and a .262 Triple-A ISO. He could be Allen’s statistical twin in some respects. Michael Taylor is a big burly dude finally showing some power in Sacramento. Given the flaws that their three most powerful prospects share, it seems like Oakland has done the right thing to amass multiple options. At least one of these players won’t work out, but if one does, they’ll finally have the young power hitter they’ve been searching for.

That the Athletics also got a 24-year-old Triple-A lefty with a career minor league strikeout rate over nine out of the deal is just cherry on the cake. Yes, Jordan Norberto might be a LOOGY, and yes, he’s got terrible control so far (4.8 BB/9 MiLB career). Yes, he’s also just a reliever at this point.

But hey, maybe they can pump Noberto up and then dump him for a struggling young position player with power down the line. It’s worked once before.

Bourn seeks playoff identity in Atlanta.

Spoiler [+]
The Braves finally got in on one of the most active trade deadlines in recent memory Sunday morning, when they acquired Michael Bourn from the Astros. In doing so, the Braves were able to part with quantity over quality and get a guy who perfectly fits their ballclub.

As Bradley Woodrum noted at the All-Star break, the Braves were only getting a .310 wOBA from their leadoff spot at the break, and matters haven’t improved any since. After Jordan Schafer and his anorexic .291 wOBA went down, the Braves had tried Martin Prado, Nate McLouth and Jose Costanza at leadoff. While the Braves at least gave us a chance to relive some choice Seinfeld moments, that wasn’t really helping them win ballgames.

Enter Bourn. Perhaps sensing he might be traded at the deadline, Bourn has been on fire for the past two months. Since the Astros hit Chicago at the end of May for a set with the Cubs, Bourn has been hitting .339/.388/.446, with 14 doubles, five triples and 21 stolen bases against just five times caught stealing. For the season, Bourn’s wOBA is a robust .353, eighth among qualified center fielders and certainly the best available on the trade market.

With McLouth on the disabled list and Schafer heading out in the trade, Bourn slides right into center for the Braves. Bourn has accumulated a WAR of 3.6 this season, and has established himself as just shy of a five-win player. Plug that into a spot in the lineup that had only generated 0.9 WAR so far thus season (25th in the Majors) and you have what should be an upgrade of at least a win over the remainder of the season — plus the Braves get him for 2012 as well. No matter what the total is for the rest of this season though, the Braves are setting themselves up as optimally as possible in that they slotted in the best available center fielder into one of the two black holes in their lineup. It’s a much better situation than the Braves would have faced had they acquired someone like Carlos Quentin and then had to figure out how to fake center field and keep all the big bats in the lineup at the same time.

The same can not be said due north in Philadelphia, where instead of allowing Hunter Pence to replace the warm-congealed-chunks-of-milk version of Raul Ibanez, they have once more partaken in tradition-is-best hijinks and sent down Domonic Brown instead. The difference between Bourn and Schafer is roughly three wins, very similar to the difference between Pence and Ibanez, but Brown narrows that gap significantly, and would likely have continued to narrow it in August, unfamiliarity with left field be damned. If the Braves do mount a comeback charge for the National League East crown, that will certainly be a decision the Phillies regret.

Also unlike the Phillies — and Giants and Indians — the Braves did not part with the cream of the crop on the farm in order to land Bourn. They land a year and change of Bourn without having had to sacrifice top-shelft talent. First, Schafer was obviously expendable in this deal. Few, if any teams carry three true center fielders on their roster, and with McLouth the better bat, the offense-starved Braves wouldn’t have had a spot for Schafer. Schafer had briefly resurrected his career this year as a defense-first guy, generating an UZR of 1.8 in just 440 innings in the field, and when the dust settles in Houston, he could end up with, if not a starting role, at least a Major League job throughout their rebuilding process.

The Astros also net three Minor League pitchers. Chief among them is Brett Oberholtzer, who while he didn’t make our own Marc Hulet’s top 10 this spring or Keith Law’s, he was ninth on Baseball America’s list. The 21-year old has held up well at Double-A, but his strikeout to walk ratio has dipped from 5.94 at High-A to 2.21 this season. His teammate in Mississippi, Paul Clemens, is two years closer to being able to rent a car, but performance-wise is his junior, as Clemens’ 3.80 FIP can’t touch Oberholtzer’s 3.36 mark. Finally, 26-year old Juan Abreu could fill the “Wild Thing
 
Ackley or Strasburg.

Spoiler [+]
Two years ago, the top two picks in the June draft were pretty obvious – Stephen Strasburg was going to go #1 and Dustin Ackley was going to go #2. Strasburg was the best pitching prospect in the draft’s history, while Ackley had comfortably settled in as the low-risk college position player option. Because of the enormous difference in perceived potential, there was no real question that the Nationals would take Strasburg #1, even with the greater chance of risk associated with drafting a pitcher. I made the case for Ackley at the time, but even I admitted that, given the #1 pick, I’d take Strasburg too.

Now, though, a lot has changed. Strasburg had a remarkable ascent and debut in the big leagues, but then also had to go under the knife and has spent the last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Ackley, meanwhile, had some pedestrian numbers in the minor leagues, took longer to get to the show, but has made a pretty nifty little splash since he got there.

In fact, I thought it might be interesting to point out that Ackley’s performance in the big leagues is roughly comparable to what Strasburg did in his time in the Majors before his arm gave out. Strasburg made 12 starts for the Nationals last summer, throwing 68 innings in those dozen appearances. The number of innings essentially represented about 1/3 of a full-season, as the Nationals would not have let him rack up more than the 204 innings that would project out to over 36 starts. In that 1/3 of a season, Strasburg was worth +2.6 WAR, or a +7.8 WAR full-season pace.

Since arriving in the big leagues in mid-June, Ackley has racked up 150 plate appearances in 37 games, about as close to a 1/4 mark of a full-season as you’ll get. He’s shown far more power than expected and has handled himself pretty well at second base; his .311/.373/.556 line has been worth +1.9 WAR so far. Multiply that out to a full-season, and he’s on pace for +7.6 WAR, basically an identically valuable season to Strasburg’s debut pace.

Of course, what made Strasburg’s debut so remarkable wasn’t his results but how he got them, throwing 100 MPH fastballs with ease and breaking off sick 90+ MPH breaking balls and changeups. He was a pitching freak, doing things with his right arm that we had never seen before. Ackley, on the other hand, is still a slender guy who barely looks like a Major Leaguer, and he’s producing his value through doubles, triples, and a lack of strikeouts. It’s not nearly as sexy, and he simply isn’t the kind of must-see-TV that Strasburg was last summer.

Still, though, whether it’s as physically impressive or not, it should at least be noted that Ackley has essentially matched Strasburg in terms of production during their first summer in the big leagues. The argument for Strasburg over Ackley was always that there was an enormous difference in potential upside, and that the gulf in reward made up for the expected differences in risk as well. When Strasburg dominated the league last summer, it was seen as confirmation of his ridiculous talents. I’m guessing that what Ackley is doing now is seen as more of a small-sample fluke, a hot streak that he just won’t keep up. The difference is the lingering power of perception.

Strasburg has great talent, Ackley has low risk, and if Mr. Low Risk happens to match Mr. Big Talent in performance, well, it won’t last. But, perhaps when considering which one we’d rather have going forward, we should at least consider that when put to the test against big league opposition, there hasn’t been much of a difference between the two in terms of production. Perhaps we underestimated the upside of Mr. Low Risk.

Given where we are now, with Strasburg headed out for a rehab assignment soon and likely to be back on the hill in a month or so, I’m curious about who you’d rather have in your organization. I just ranked Strasburg #26 in the Trade Value series, while Ackley didn’t appear anywhere on the list, so my perception is that most people will still strongly prefer the elite arm and take the extra risk associated. Given how well Ackley is performing, and how much more likely he is to stay healthy long term, though, I wonder if that’s the right call.

Deadline Recap: Position player upgrades.

Spoiler [+]
With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.

To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.

Atlanta Braves: Center Field

Braves wRAA from CF: -6.2 (25th in MLB)

Incumbent Jordan Schafer: -8.8 wRAA

Replacement Michael Bourn: 3.6 wRAA

Total Swing: 12.4 runs

Comments: That’s a one-win swing just on offense, which is huge for the Braves. It helps ensure their Wild Card lead, and perhaps will close the gap a bit between them and the Phillies. Again, this is a case where ZiPS ROS has undersold a player’s performance to date. Bourn currently has a .353 wOBA, so if he keeps the hot hitting going he’ll be even more of an upgrade — 7.6 wRAA, or a swing of more than 1.5 wins, just on offense.

Detroit Tigers: Third Base

Tigers wRAA from 3B: -20.9 (27th in MLB)

Incumbent Brandon Inge: -5.0 wRAA

Replacement Wilson Betemit: 1.6 wRAA

Total Swing: 6.6 runs

Comments: Inge was clearly done, both on offense and defense, and his ZiPS rest of season projection, .290 wOBA, was probably greatly generous. The other guy they’ve had playing third, Don Kelly, hits a similar ZiPS projection. Betemit, then, will net them more than half a win on offense going forward.

San Francisco Giants: Left Field

Giants wRAA from LF: 1.7 (13th in MLB)

Incumbent Cody Ross: 4.0 wRAA

Replacement Carlos Beltran: 10.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 6.6 runs.

Comments: The Giants have gone through many outfielders this year without much luck. Bringing in Beltran helps solidify that unit, and the lineup as a whole. They’re also probably expecting a bit more than his projected ROS stats, which are based on a .367 wOBA; he produced a .381 wOBA with the Mets.

Cleveland Indians: Right Field

Indians wRAA from RF: -13.2 (29th in MLB)

Incumbent Austin Kearns: -4.2 wRAA

Replacement Kosuke Fukudome: 1.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 5.6 runs

Comments: There was little chance that Kearns was getting 230 more PA this season, considering he doesn’t have that many to date. But he was part of a RF platoon with Travis Buck, and -4.2 wRAA is about the best we could expect from that tandem. Fukudome is a half win better than that on offense, despite his complete lack of power. There is a wild card here, in that Shin-Soo Choo is due back from the disabled list. His ZiPS ROS, based on a generous 150 PA, is 5.2 wRAA.

San Francisco Giants: Shortstop

Giants wRAA from SS: -28.7 (30th in MLB)

Incumbent Brandon Crawford: -8.4 wRAA

Replacement Orlando Cabrera: -4.0 wRAA

Total Swing: 4.4 runs

Comments: You could do a pick ‘em among the three guys with time at shortstop for the Giants — Crawford, Mike Fontenot, and Miguel Tejada — and come up with a below-average producer with the bat. Crawford was in there for his defense, which makes a degree of sense. But both Tejada and Fontenot have ZiPS ROS projections right in line with Cabrera’s. Are the Giants really getting that much better defense from Cabrera? I guess they considered him a better bet than the other two.

St. Louis Cardinals: Shortstop

Cardinals wRAA from SS: -9.7 (18th in MLB)

Incumbent Ryan Theriot: -3.8 wRAA

Replacement Rafael Furcal: -0.2 wRAA

Total Swing: 3.6 runs

Comments: Again, the idea here is that Furcal outperforms his ZiPS ROS projection. It’s tough to imagine, since he’s been nothing but terrible this season. Perhaps he’s a change of scenery guy who will pick it up. That’s what the Cardinals have to hope for. Otherwise, he’s probably going to perform worse at the plate than Theriot.

Pittsburgh Pirates: First Base

Pirates wRAA from 1B: -12.0 (27th in MLB)

Incumbent Lyle Overbay: 1.0 wRAA

Replacement Derrek Lee: 4.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 3.4 runs

Comments: It’s not a huge upgrade, but it’s definitely something. Both Overbay and Lee have underperformed their projections to date, though it has Overbay as the overall worse option. There are issues with Lee, both in his performance and in terms of RHB at PNC Park, but he’d be hard pressed to perform worse than Overbay. The Pirates will gain a few marginal runs for it, and it’s not as though Lee cost them much to acquire.

Philadelphia Phillies: Right Field

Phillies wRAA from RF: -3.6 (22nd in MLB)

Incumbent Domonic Brown: 7.0 wRAA

Replacement Hunter Pence: 7.4 wRAA

Total Swing: 0.4 runs

Comments: Clearly the Phillies did not believe that Brown’s ROS projection of a .350 wOBA was accurate. Then again, this move was as much for the future as it was for 2011. They’ll head into 2012 with an outfield of Brown, Pence, and Shane Victorino. In terms of 2011 it’s still an upgrade of sorts, since Brown produced only 1.6 wRAA during his time in right. Of course, the Phillies still might be best served by replacing Raul Ibanez and his 0.4 wRAA in left.

Late trade stuff but good reads.

Boston fortifies rotation with Bedard.

Spoiler [+]
For many pundits, the Boston Red Sox were the clear best team in baseball this year. Ever since a 2-10 start, the Sox have won over two-thirds of their games, with a stellar 64-30 record. They lead the American League in both actual record and first-order (Pythagorean) record, and their 67.8-37.2 third-order record is a full two games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies.

But even the best teams are rarely without weakness, and with Clay Buchholz‘s status uncertain, the Red Sox found themselves with some shallowness in their rotation. Sure, John Lackey, Andrew Miller, and Tim Wakefield would have no problem bringing an offense with as much firepower as Boston’s to the playoffs, particularly with an 8.5 game lead on Los Angeles for the Wild Card if they can’t hold their 2 game lead on New York in the East. But in the playoffs, the Red Sox will have to get by potent offenses such as the Yankees and the Rangers, and with Lackey and Miller as the third and fourth options out of the rotation, the Red Sox had a clear need to upgrade.

Upgrade they did, as the Red Sox pulled a three-way deadline deal to add Erik Bedard from the Mariners. To swing the deal, the Red Sox sent prospects C Tim Federowicz, RP Juan Rodriguez and SP Stephen Fife to the Dodgers in order to acquire OF Trayvon Robinson, who was then flipped along with OF Chih-Hsien Chang to the Mariners, bringing RP Josh Fields back as well as Bedard.

It’s fair to wonder if the Red Sox would have pushed so hard for a starter (An earlier deal for Rich Harden was nixed due to health problems. The sun rises in the east.) if not for the uncertainty surrounding Clay Buchholz. The 26-year-old righty was transferred to the 60-day disabled list on Sunday and depending on the results of a second opinion on his ailing back, could be done for the year.

Health is an obvious concern with Bedard, as his 91 innings this season are his most since throwing 182 in 2007. Seeing as his health — or that of any other possible acquisition — over the rest of the regular season will hardly impact the Red Sox playoff odds, Bedard made the perfect target for Boston. They needed a pitcher who could handle playoff-level offenses but wouldn’t come at much of a cost for the future (see Jimenez, Ubaldo).

If he’s on the playoff roster, Bedard is a clear upgrade over Miller and Wakefield, and a good bet to improve on Lackey as well. SafeCo Field deserves an assist for his 3.31 ERA since his trade to Seattle, but he still checks in at a sharp 82 ERA-, and 4.3 WAR (based on FIP) in 255 innings is solid as well. Lackey could very well improve on his poor numbers to date (152 ERA-, 0.7 WAR), as he is coming off a 4.0 WAR season in 2010, but it’s awfully difficult to put a 6.20 ERA in a good light. Miller and Wakefield have been poor, each with an ERA over 5.00 and FIPs to match; Bedard’s superiority should be obvious.

It did take four warm bodies to acquire Bedard, but that’s about it. None of the players moved by Boston appear on Kevin Goldstein’s top 20 organizational prospect list, nor do they appear in our Top 100 Prospects list or top 10 organizational prospect list. This isn’t to say they’re doomed to complete non-productivity in the Major Leagues — the prospects will be covered in a separate post — but the Red Sox don’t lose much from a good farm system and improve their chances at a World Series. Hard to argue with that logic.

Adams joins reformed Rangers bullpen.

Spoiler [+]
After weeks of rumors about the Padres and Rangers being engaged in talks for closer Heath Bell, the teams pulled off a deal… involving setup man Mike Adams.

The Rangers, fresh off of acquiring Koji Uehara on Saturday, sent pitching prospects Robert Erlin and Joseph Wieland to San Diego to bring aboard arguably the best non-closing relief pitcher in the game. Since joining the Padres in 2008, Adams has thrown 217 innings with the following pertinent numbers: 137 (!) hits, 10.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP, 1.66 ERA and 2.48 SIERA. He ranks towards the top in each of those categories, and his 5.2 WAR in the span is the highest among setup men and middle relievers in the National League, and second to Matt Thornton across both leagues.

Simply put, Mike Adams is one of the very best relievers in baseball, regardless of whether or not he closes out the ninth inning, and was the top reliever on the market. Right behind him was Uehara, who has been equally filthy over the last two seasons. In acquiring both pitchers, the Rangers fixed a significant deficiency: the bullpen.

Through the weekend, the Rangers had the worst bullpen in the American League at -0.7 WAR. Something tells the formidable back-end trio of Neftali Feliz, Adams and Uehara will move them out of the cellar. Plus, both acquired relievers are under contract or control for the 2012 season, so this isn’t a situation where the Rangers send a bevy of prospects away for short rentals. Relievers don’t tally much in the way of wins above replacement to begin with, but Uehara and Adams are so effective that the difference between them and the players bumped from the roster is significant.

The pitching prospects heading to San Diego were both in Double-A, but project perfectly for the spacious PETCO Park. Both Erlin and Wieland rely on their savvy and command to beat up on the opposition, but their offerings won’t appear filthy to major league hitters. Marc Hulet ranked Erlin as the 4th best prospect in the Rangers system prior to the season, while Wieland fell out of the top ten. Baseball America also ranked Erlin 4th, and placed Wieland as the 22nd best prospect in the system. The stocks of both pitchers have risen since the pre-season lists were published and each makes sense for the Padres.

In February, Hulet wrote that Erlin was an undersized lefty, but one that could turn into a 3-WAR starter at the major league level. His minor league numbers have been mighty impressive so far. Last year, he posted a 9.8 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 114 2/3 frames in A-Ball. Moving up to High-A to start the season, his strikeout and walk rates per nine innings actually improved to 10.2 and 0.8, respectively.

His performance merited a promotion to Double-A, where his peripherals have remained strong: an 8.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 66 2/3 frames. When he catches too much up the plate, his offerings aren’t good enough to keep the opposition off-kilter, but his impeccable control should translate to the majors. Nothing wrong with a cost-controlled starter capable of a mid-3s ERA, a 6.5-7 K/9 and a sub-2.0 BB/9.

Wieland similarly relies on the combination of command and control rather than pure stuff, and his peripherals have been equally impressive. Last season he threw 148 innings in A- and High-A, with a 143/25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 129 2/3 innings this year at High-A and Double-A, Wieland has an even more impressive 132/15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Primarily relying on a low-90s fastball and a solid albeit underwhelming curveball, Wieland is also developing his slider and changeup. He isn’t going to turn into a flashy starter in the majors, but he misses bats, limits free passes, and is widely regarded as having baseball smarts in his gameplanning.

The package may seem less impressive than the two major leaguers sent to Baltimore for Uehara, but Erlin and Wieland fit right in line with the Padres plans perhaps more so than Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter fit the Orioles rebuilding process. Don’t be surprised if both Erlin and Wieland occupy the back of the Padres rotation by 2013, at which point Adams and Uehara reach free agency. The Rangers might not have a window, per se, but acquiring Adams completely addresses their most glaring weakness and enhances their odds of both winning the division and succeeding in the playoffs.

Cardinals add Furcal to mix.

Spoiler [+]
In an effort to shore up their interior defense, the St. Louis Cardinals agreed to a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, bringing Rafael Furcal back east in exchange for Double-A outfielder Alex Castellanos. The trade was first reported last night, but could not be made official until Furcal – a 10/5 player – waived his no-trade clause to complete the transaction.

For the Dodgers – who open up for business today 12.5 games out in the National League West – trading Furcal provides the team with some financial relief and opens up a spot for top prospect Dee Gordon at the major-league level. The Dodgers are reportedly picking up $2.5 million on the balance of Furcal’s $6 million salary, but still save over $1 million with the move.

Los Angeles also receives the 24-year-old Castellanos – the owner of a .408 wOBA at the Double-A level this season. Despite his lack of size (listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds) Castellanos has displayed good power, progressing though the Cardinals organization, but relatively poor plate discipline. In addition to the power, he flashes speed on the base paths and could be a serviceable fourth outfielder or the right-handed piece of a platoon.

As mentioned, the Dodgers now have a home for Dee Gordon who was vanquished back to Triple-A earlier in the month. Although Gordon struggled in his initial call up (.245 wOBA in 85 plate appearances), he should get another chance to prove he can handle major-league pitching with Furcal out of the way.

Speaking of Furcal, the 33-year-old has had trouble staying healthy for the third time in four years. In 2011, he has suffered through a broken left thumb and more recently battled with a strained oblique. Furcal’s struggles to stay on the field have leaked in to his play on it. In just 37 games this season, he is hitting .197/.272/.248 with a .241 wOBA. At the same time, the small sample size issue along with injuries and inconsistent playing time because of those injuries render the results almost useless. Furcal is likely much closer to a league average hitter than his current 48 wRC+ suggests.

Getting production from Furcal’s bat would be a nice boon for St. Louis; however, this move should do much more to improve the Cardinals defense than their offense. Ryan Theriot has started 85 games at shortstop for the Cardinals this season. While he has been an average defender in the past, Theriot has cost the team about 10 runs on defense this season with limited range. For a team that relies on groundballs (48.2% team GB rate is second highest in MLB), an average-to-slightly average shortstop like Furcal is a huge asset to have.

Unlike the Giants acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, the Cardinals addition of Furcal should provide ancillary benefits down the stretch. A healthy Furcal is capable of providing sufficient offensive production while upgrading the team’s defense at a key position. At the cost of a fringe prospect and a little over a million dollars, the move is a solid one for St. Louis as they chase the Milwaukee Brewers in a tight NL Central race.

Pirates add to OF with Ludwick.

Spoiler [+]
At the outset the Pirates had a solid plan in the outfield. They flanked superstar center fielder Andrew McCutchen with young up-and-comer Jose Tabata in left, and a platoon of Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz in right. It might not have been the heaviest-hitting outfield combination in the league, but it didn’t appear to be a problem area, either. Since then those plans have hit a few snags. Tabata hit the DL, Jones failed to produce even one batting run above average in the first four months, and Diaz has been an unmitigated disaster at the plate. Rookie Alex Presley helped for a while, but he, too, hit the DL. Their need for outfield help persisted until a few minutes before today’s non-waiver trade deadline, when they acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Padres for a player to be named later.

While Ludwick might sound like an attractive option for the Pirates, he’s really an upgrade in name only. His 2008 season, in which he produced 41.6 runs above average, remains his only standout year. In the year prior, his first with more than 200 PA, he produced just 6.7 runs above average. In the two years following it he combined for 9.9 runs above average. This year he’s at -1.7 runs above average, even with the adjustment for Petco Park. That is, if he’s going to help the Pirates this year he’ll have to somehow benefit from the change of scenery.

While Petco is billed as a big-time pitchers’ park, it plays far tougher for lefties than for righties. According to StatCorner’s park factors, Petco suppresses doubles for righties, but is near average for everything else. In Pittsburgh it’s average for singles and doubles, but triples and homers go to die there. Perhaps Ludwick, who hit 40 doubles in 2008, will produce better by hitting it into the gaps at PNC. But that’s about the only way the move will benefit his offense. Even then, Ludwick has been a poor hitter on the road, producing -2.7 runs above average.

Ludwick might get some regular playing time now, due to injuries, but he’s more likely ticketed for a platoon role once Presley returns (though he could platoon with Jones rather than Presley). That’s the only area where’s he’s been average this year, with a -0.1 wRAA and a 104 wRC+. Yet that hasn’t been his trend career-wise. Against righties he owns a career 118 wRC+, but against lefties it’s just below average at 97. Before this year the only season in which he had a wRC+ of 100 or better against lefties was in 2008*, and even then he hit righties better than lefties. That makes a platoon a bit less palatable, though given the way managers employ platoons it might not stop Clint Hurdle from trying.

Unless the PTBNL is anyone from the first three rounds of the Pirates 2010 draft, they’ll have added Ludwick for a song. That’s a worthy investment on a guy who has had some success in the past. But since his career splits don’t warrant a platoon situation, and since PNC Park eats up right-handed power, he might not be the best fit for the Pirates right now. He can fill in while Presley and Tabata recover, but it’s hard to see him as an upgrade past that. It’s hard to see him having a significant impact on the NL Central race.

Oakland uses Brad Ziegler to free Brandon Allen.

Spoiler [+]
The Athletics traded a reliever and got back a young player that, despite his struggles to date, already has shown more power than anyone on the Oakland roster not named Josh Willingham. Yes, they used Brad Ziegler to (hopefully) free Brandon Allen.

First, the Diamondbacks’ perspective. As much of a head-scratcher as this trade seems to be, there is probably only one redeeming factor. Ziegler is under team control until 2014 and has been one of baseball’s. most consistent relievers so far in his career. Since 2008, he has accrued 2.9 WAR, good for 33rd most among relievers. That’s built on the fourth-best groundball rate over that period as well (62.4%). A career SIERA of 3.49 looks sustainable. Even if he’s not the cheapest arbitration case (he’s already being paid over a million per season), he’s a very good reliever that will cost Arizona less than market value for the next three seasons.

Still, they gave up a bounty to improve their bullpen. And possibly created a hole at first base that they need to fill by trade or callup. For now, that hole will be filled by the recently called up Paul Goldschmidt. Scouts are suspicious of Goldschmidt, but his stats are delicious. The Diamondbacks will give it a chance.

Brandon Allen has flaws. So far, he’s struck out in over a third of his 200 major league plate appearances. His career contact percentage (67.1%) would be fourth-worst in the league if he qualified for the batting title — right between Mike Stanton and Carlos Pena. Even though he’s performed well so far in the outfield, it’s more likely that he’s a first baseman long-term.

And yet Allen still as plenty of potential. He never struck out this much in the minor leagues. His 23% strikeout rate on the farm can be considered a minor red flag, but it does not predict a 35% major league strikeout rate. So far, he’s shown above-average major league power (.191 ISO), so once he connects, the ball does travel. Considering that his 209 PAs have been stretched over three years, it’s also fair to say that none of his major league statistics are really reliable anyway. This 25-year-old is still young enough to find his .267 Triple-A ISO exciting.

Allen does join an organization that has multiple parts that have similar statistical profiles, so it’s unclear how ‘free’ Allen really is now. Probable future first baseman or DH Vernon Chris Carter has a 31.8% major league strikeout rate, a 23.7% MiLB strikeout rate, and a .262 Triple-A ISO. He could be Allen’s statistical twin in some respects. Michael Taylor is a big burly dude finally showing some power in Sacramento. Given the flaws that their three most powerful prospects share, it seems like Oakland has done the right thing to amass multiple options. At least one of these players won’t work out, but if one does, they’ll finally have the young power hitter they’ve been searching for.

That the Athletics also got a 24-year-old Triple-A lefty with a career minor league strikeout rate over nine out of the deal is just cherry on the cake. Yes, Jordan Norberto might be a LOOGY, and yes, he’s got terrible control so far (4.8 BB/9 MiLB career). Yes, he’s also just a reliever at this point.

But hey, maybe they can pump Noberto up and then dump him for a struggling young position player with power down the line. It’s worked once before.

Bourn seeks playoff identity in Atlanta.

Spoiler [+]
The Braves finally got in on one of the most active trade deadlines in recent memory Sunday morning, when they acquired Michael Bourn from the Astros. In doing so, the Braves were able to part with quantity over quality and get a guy who perfectly fits their ballclub.

As Bradley Woodrum noted at the All-Star break, the Braves were only getting a .310 wOBA from their leadoff spot at the break, and matters haven’t improved any since. After Jordan Schafer and his anorexic .291 wOBA went down, the Braves had tried Martin Prado, Nate McLouth and Jose Costanza at leadoff. While the Braves at least gave us a chance to relive some choice Seinfeld moments, that wasn’t really helping them win ballgames.

Enter Bourn. Perhaps sensing he might be traded at the deadline, Bourn has been on fire for the past two months. Since the Astros hit Chicago at the end of May for a set with the Cubs, Bourn has been hitting .339/.388/.446, with 14 doubles, five triples and 21 stolen bases against just five times caught stealing. For the season, Bourn’s wOBA is a robust .353, eighth among qualified center fielders and certainly the best available on the trade market.

With McLouth on the disabled list and Schafer heading out in the trade, Bourn slides right into center for the Braves. Bourn has accumulated a WAR of 3.6 this season, and has established himself as just shy of a five-win player. Plug that into a spot in the lineup that had only generated 0.9 WAR so far thus season (25th in the Majors) and you have what should be an upgrade of at least a win over the remainder of the season — plus the Braves get him for 2012 as well. No matter what the total is for the rest of this season though, the Braves are setting themselves up as optimally as possible in that they slotted in the best available center fielder into one of the two black holes in their lineup. It’s a much better situation than the Braves would have faced had they acquired someone like Carlos Quentin and then had to figure out how to fake center field and keep all the big bats in the lineup at the same time.

The same can not be said due north in Philadelphia, where instead of allowing Hunter Pence to replace the warm-congealed-chunks-of-milk version of Raul Ibanez, they have once more partaken in tradition-is-best hijinks and sent down Domonic Brown instead. The difference between Bourn and Schafer is roughly three wins, very similar to the difference between Pence and Ibanez, but Brown narrows that gap significantly, and would likely have continued to narrow it in August, unfamiliarity with left field be damned. If the Braves do mount a comeback charge for the National League East crown, that will certainly be a decision the Phillies regret.

Also unlike the Phillies — and Giants and Indians — the Braves did not part with the cream of the crop on the farm in order to land Bourn. They land a year and change of Bourn without having had to sacrifice top-shelft talent. First, Schafer was obviously expendable in this deal. Few, if any teams carry three true center fielders on their roster, and with McLouth the better bat, the offense-starved Braves wouldn’t have had a spot for Schafer. Schafer had briefly resurrected his career this year as a defense-first guy, generating an UZR of 1.8 in just 440 innings in the field, and when the dust settles in Houston, he could end up with, if not a starting role, at least a Major League job throughout their rebuilding process.

The Astros also net three Minor League pitchers. Chief among them is Brett Oberholtzer, who while he didn’t make our own Marc Hulet’s top 10 this spring or Keith Law’s, he was ninth on Baseball America’s list. The 21-year old has held up well at Double-A, but his strikeout to walk ratio has dipped from 5.94 at High-A to 2.21 this season. His teammate in Mississippi, Paul Clemens, is two years closer to being able to rent a car, but performance-wise is his junior, as Clemens’ 3.80 FIP can’t touch Oberholtzer’s 3.36 mark. Finally, 26-year old Juan Abreu could fill the “Wild Thing
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

Gotta suck to be Ryan Ludwick going from Petco tp PNC
laugh.gif

y?? petco isn't a hitters park at all. plus the pirates have better hitters
 
Why do the Yanks need to rebuild? Have some nice stuff in the minors, Cano, Grandy, Teix, Gard all entering/ in their prime. Martin has been solid behind the plate...
 
Why do the Yanks need to rebuild? Have some nice stuff in the minors, Cano, Grandy, Teix, Gard all entering/ in their prime. Martin has been solid behind the plate...
 
Originally Posted by shoenut129

Originally Posted by Proshares

Gotta suck to be Ryan Ludwick going from Petco tp PNC
laugh.gif

y?? petco isn't a hitters park at all. plus the pirates have better hitters

Because PNC park is death to right handers and he just came from a park that was bad for right handed power.  And the Yankees do not need to rebuild.  They're the third best team in baseball with that rotation.
 
Originally Posted by shoenut129

Originally Posted by Proshares

Gotta suck to be Ryan Ludwick going from Petco tp PNC
laugh.gif

y?? petco isn't a hitters park at all. plus the pirates have better hitters

Because PNC park is death to right handers and he just came from a park that was bad for right handed power.  And the Yankees do not need to rebuild.  They're the third best team in baseball with that rotation.
 
They don't need to rebuild but Granderson and Teixeira aren't entering their primes... They're both on the wrong side of 30.
 
They don't need to rebuild but Granderson and Teixeira aren't entering their primes... They're both on the wrong side of 30.
 
Granderson just turned 30, I think he has a good amount of time left in him. Only question is if they keep him around. Tex is turning into Giambi with a glove now. I think he'll be at least serviceable for the next couple years. Only players I'd worry about who I think will be around a while are A-Rod and Jeter. Besides, you know how the Yankees do. They'll fill the voids one way or another.
 
Granderson just turned 30, I think he has a good amount of time left in him. Only question is if they keep him around. Tex is turning into Giambi with a glove now. I think he'll be at least serviceable for the next couple years. Only players I'd worry about who I think will be around a while are A-Rod and Jeter. Besides, you know how the Yankees do. They'll fill the voids one way or another.
 
They've both got plenty of time left, but entering their primes? Nah. Teixeira, at least, is nearing the end of his peak years.

Granderson is hard to figure out.. He's had three pretty average years and three really good years. Who knows.
 
They've both got plenty of time left, but entering their primes? Nah. Teixeira, at least, is nearing the end of his peak years.

Granderson is hard to figure out.. He's had three pretty average years and three really good years. Who knows.
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Man, Yadi spazzed on that umpire. Suspension city.
Just saw this on the highlights and said the same on Twitter.
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Man, Yadi spazzed on that umpire. Suspension city.
Just saw this on the highlights and said the same on Twitter.
 
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