2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[thekidgriffey24]

-puts flame suit on-


Cannot stand Scully. I understamd why he's considered the greatest but he is unbearable. I listen to the spanish radio broadcast whenever I watch a Dodger game.

I think the Angels have the worst broadcasters in the entire league.


Cuhs on the other hand are hilarious It literally sounds like two guys just sitting on the couch watching the game together. Well that's if they still have the same crew as last year.

Honestly...I kinda agree with this. I respect Scully and all of his accomplishments, but he grows tiresome rather quickly for me. I think my main problem is it's just him announcing, I'd probably prefer it if there was someone with him, but it's whatever. My opinion isn't going to change the millions that adore Scully.

 

[mr marcus]

The Nats radio guys are awesome.

yep.....have no choice but to listen to them when I'm at work.....still don't get how NC is in their market lol 

 

[a55a5in11]

The best sportscaster died in 2010
R.I.P.

 

[dmxfury]

I heard the Yanks team on my way home from vacation. They were bad. Susan Waldmen is horrific, play by play guy was ok

John miller is great. Such a smooth voice

 

[jjs07]

Adam Jones = better version of Eric Davis.

 

[dmxfury]

JJ I don't know if ever told you but seeing a game at Camden was ridiculous. Super cool people there and obviously the stadium speaks for itself. It was that 9th inning comeback win over the White Sox about a month back. Really glad to see that and Nationals Park

 

[proshares]

I heard the Yanks team on my way home from vacation. They were bad. Susan Waldmen is horrific, play by play guy was ok

John miller is great. Such a smooth voice

That's being way too nice about Suzy her voice just irks me. They're two of the worst to me. Sterling has his moments but I'm not a big fan.

 

[jjs07]

JJ I don't know if ever told you but seeing a game at Camden was ridiculous. Super cool people there and obviously the stadium speaks for itself. It was that 9th inning comeback win over the White Sox about a month back. Really glad to see that and Nationals Park

Glad to hear you had a good time. Where'd you stay in b-more? Please tell me u had some boh also....

 

[madj55]

yep.....have no choice but to listen to them when I'm at work.....still don't get how NC is in their market lol 

At least they're good! Sometimes I'd rather mute the MASN broadcast and just listen to the radio guys, but then I'd miss all of the weird **** F.P. is saying

 

[proshares]

Trades the Phillies should make now.

Spoiler

The time has come for the Philadelphia Phillies to realize that it’s too late to retool. It’s time for them to put denial behind them and embrace the realities of a complete rebuild.

The Phillies have everything going for them in terms of a marketplace in their favor. There are very few teams that are pure “sellers” at this deadline, and many of them should be have already acted (like the Chicago Cubs) or don’t have the pieces to sell (like the Houston Astros). As a result, the Phillies are sitting in a perfect position for a rebuild.

Need a top-of-the-rotation starter with postseason success? Philadelphia has two in Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Need an impact closer with an ERA closer to one than two? They have Jonathan Papelbon. Need a lefty reliever? They have Antonio Bastardo. Need a middle infielder with postseason success? They have second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Need an outfielder with power? They have Marlon Byrd.

Now, wheeling and dealing all of these players over the next two weeks will not be as easy as making some standard trades. Many of these players have no-trade provisions or overvalued contracts with long-term exposure, and some are longtime Phillies who simply don’t want to get traded. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will have to get creative by being open to eating contracts or paying significant parts of contracts, convincing players to waive no-trade clauses as well as convincing other teams that some of the players are healthy. Furthermore, he'll have to get the fan base prepared for the loss of many of their favorite players. It’s not an easy task.

Amaro has had a lot of success over the years in Philadelphia since joining their front office back in 1998 as an assistant GM. He was promoted to GM in 2009 and has been there ever since. He’s overseen three first-place finishes in the NL East, followed by a third-, fourth- and, in all likelihood, fifth-place spot this year. His early success included the help of former GMs like Pat Gillick, and Ed Wade's previous work, but that shouldn’t take anything away from his accomplishments. However, the last few years have not been kind to him, and his popularity in Philadelphia and around baseball is at an all-time low.

However, he has a chance to change all of that -- and his legacy -- over the next two weeks. With some massive blockbusters and wheeling and dealing, he can make the future bright once again, but it can only happen with some serious and painful moves for everyone. The time has come to rebuild in the City of Brotherly Love, and here are seven trade suggestions that could start the process.

1. Hamels to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for center fielder Joc Pederson and left-handed pitcher Julio Urias

Joc Pederson
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Dodgers outfield prospect Joc Pederson has All-Star potential.
The Dodgers have been linked to both David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays and Hamels. According to sources, the Dodgers are willing to part with one of their top-tier prospects but not two. But the reality is that with the real chance of the Dodgers winning a World Series either this year or next -- and the benefits that a pitcher of Hamels ilk would provide to that cause -- it’s hard to envision the Dodgers letting a teenager stand in the way of a deal.

In return, the Phillies will get their long-term solution in center field with Pederson. Pederson profiles out to a 25-homer, 25-steals type of player who has the potential of joining the 30/30 club, especially if he plays half of his games at Citizens Bank Park. He has a lifetime .305/.404/.515 slash line in five minor league seasons and is major league ready. Urias has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, and he should be ready for the big leagues by September 2015. This deal would be a game-changer for the Phillies' future and a possible legacy-changer for Amaro in the long term.

2. Lee to the New York Yankees in exchange for outfielder Aaron Judge and right-handed starter Luis Severino

The Yankees might be the only team willing to absorb most of Lee’s contract and take the risk of his elbow. The Phillies would get a legitimate impact bat in Judge, who would hit in the middle of their lineup by 2016 and provide an impact with both on-base percentage and power. Severino would give them a powerful arm for either the back of their rotation or in their bullpen.

3. Utley to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for third baseman Renato Nunez and second baseman Chad Pinder

Utley deserves the opportunity to play in another World Series, and it’s not going to happen in Philadelphia. He needs to keep an open mind and accept a deal to Oakland if given an opportunity. I know he'd prefer to stay in Philadelphia and finish his career there, but it really doesn't make sense for him or the Phillies.

The A’s have only one glaring area to upgrade, and that’s second base. Utley would be the final piece to give Billy Beane his first legitimate shot at a title. In return, the Phillies pick up a legitimate bat and power prospect in Nunez, who I just saw at the Futures Game in Minnesota. His bat is legit. His defense is not. But with hard work, he can become adequate. The question will be where to play him. Nunez has a chance to impact the Phillies' lineup in time.

Pinder is a real sleeper second baseman, and although he’s a few years away, he profiles out to an above-average overall player.

4. Right-hander A.J. Burnett and Papelbon to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for right-handed pitcher Hunter Harvey, left-handed pitcher Tim Berry and right-handed hurler Parker Bridwell

Jonathan Papelbon
Howard Smith/USA TODAY Sports
Closer Jonathan Papelbon would make the Orioles the favorites in the AL East.
This deal would make the Orioles the favorites to win the AL East (if they’re not already). It would allow them to move Zach Britton to the setup role, where he can pitch multiple innings, and add a veteran starter in Burnett, who would give them added stability in the rotation.

The Phillies would get a legitimate future starter in Harvey, just 19 years old, who profiles out to be a No. 2 type of starting pitcher with the potential of 15 wins, an ERA under three and a WHIP near 1.00. Berry, 23, is 4-5 this year with a 3.89 ERA and 1.298 WHIP at Bowie of the Eastern League (Double-A), while Bridwell is 4-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts at Frederick of the Carolina League (high A), with 94 strikeouts in 99 innings, yielding 88 hits.

5. Right fielder Marlon Byrd to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for outfielder Gabby Guerrero

The Mariners have to improve their offense, and Byrd would do just that. The Phillies might have to be willing to pay half of Byrd’s vesting option, but it would be worth it if they can get Guerrero back. Guerrero doesn’t come with the top-prospect hype, but he’s a real sleeper. He looks like a clone of his uncle Vladimir Guerrero in almost every aspect. He walks like him, talks like him and even swings at bad pitches like him.

The physical talent is there, the blood lines are there and this would be a solid deal for both sides. Guerrero is not expected to be the same type of player as Vladimir, but even if he ends up just north of Byrd’s talent level, then the deal is worth it just to get younger and cheaper.

6. Rollins to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for right-handed reliever Corey Knebel and middle infielder Hernan Perez

The Tigers seem happy with the play of rookie shortstop Eugenio Suarez, both offensively and defensively. However, Rollins' leadership, high energy and postseason success would fit nicely down the stretch and in the postseason. Knebel has a good arm and should be a solid setup reliever in time.

The Phillies know that J.P. Crawford, their top shortstop prospect, isn’t ready yet. But stockpiling young players and reducing future payroll now is far too important in rebuilding a franchise. The Phillies would have to pay a significant amount of Rollins’ remaining contract to make any deal work.

7. Bastardo to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for right-handed pitcher David Hale and infielder/outfielder Edward Salcedo

The Braves want another impact left-handed reliever to bolster their bullpen, and with Bastardo a free agent after next season, the time for the Phillies to move him is now. Hale should develop into a solid starting pitcher in time. Salcedo needs some development with the bat, but he does have 15- to 20-homer power if the bat comes.

What would it take to get Chase Headley?

Spoiler

Player: Chase Headley | 3B/LF | San Diego Padres

"What would it take to get ..."
Jim's look at July trade candidates.
• Jake Peavy Insider
• Cole Hamels Insider
• Marlon Byrd Insider
• Joaquin Benoit Insider
• Jonathan Papelbon Insider
• Dayan Viciedo Insider
Possible destinations: Toronto Blue Jays, Cincinnati Reds, New York Yankees

The 30-year-old Headley will be a free agent after this season, and although he has a modest slash line for the season -- .229/.296/.355 -- he has batted .323 in the month of July, and his stock is soaring as the trade deadline approaches. Here's more on what it would take for these three contenders to land him:

Toronto Blue Jays

Why? The Blue Jays would like to keep Brett Lawrie at second base long-term, so third base remains their biggest positional need. The Jays also need better balance in their lineup, and with Headley being a switch-hitter, that would improve them in that area as well.

Who? Left-handed pitcher Sean Nolin and shortstop Dawel Lugo should get the deal done. Nolin finally reached the majors with the Blue Jays in May 2013 and struggled in his first start, getting knocked out in the second inning after giving up six runs in a loss to the Orioles. However, he pitched well at three different stops in the minor leagues this year, making 12 starts with a 3.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 8.7 per 9 innings. While 19-year-old Lugo shows 15-20 homer power in batting practice, he has yet to show it in games because he struggles to hit pitches on the outside part of the plate -- a weakness he'll be able to overcome in time. He has soft hands and, combined with a strong arm, can make plays in the hole. He has average speed at best, but he makes up for it with good jumps and angles off the bat. Those two make for a fair package for Headley.

Will it happen? There's a good chance. The Blue Jays are going to make a move, and Headley is definitely a logical target.

Cincinnati Reds

Why? General manager Walt Jocketty told me Sunday that both Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto are at least five weeks away from returning. Combine that with the struggling Ryan Ludwick in left field and it's obvious that the Reds need to get a bat if they want to have a legitimate shot at the postseason.

Who? The Reds are not going to trade Robert Stephenson or Jesse Winker in any deal for offense, but their farm system is so loaded, thanks to scouting director Chris Buckley, that there are numerous package combinations that could bring Headley to the Queen City. For instance, a package of left-handed pitcher Ismael Guillon and outfielder Yorman Rodriguez could get it done.

Will it happen? Doubtful. Headley would either have to play left field or Todd Frazier would have to move to first base, and neither scenario makes a lot of sense. Ben Zobrist or Josh Willingham would be a better fit for the Reds.

New York Yankees

Why? It’s Derek Jeter's last year in the Bronx, and the Yanks owe it to him to go for one last postseason run. Headley is starting to swing the bat well, and the short porch in right field would work well for his swing. He'd also be a huge upgrade at third base, both offensively and defensively.

Who? A package of struggling prospects in OF Mason Williams and 3B Dante Bichette Jr. could end up being a long-term steal for the Padres, when and if either (or both) start to put it together. Another possibility would be a package of 19-year-olds, including shortstop Abiatal Avelino and third baseman Miguel Andujar, both of whom have high upside but are a long ways away from the big leagues.

Will it happen? Moderate chance. The Yankees are more focused on adding starting pitching than they are on adding a bat, although Headley is a player in whom they've had interest.

What would it take to get Jake Peavy?

Spoiler

Player: Jake Peavy | SP | Boston Red Sox

Possible destinations: Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals

"What would it take to get ..."
Jim's look at July trade candidates.
• Jake Peavy Insider
• Cole Hamels Insider
• Marlon Byrd Insider
• Joaquin Benoit Insider
• Jonathan Papelbon Insider
• Dayan Viciedo Insider
Peavy was traded July 30, 2013, in a three-team trade that sent Avisail Garcia from the Tigers to the White Sox, Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox to the Tigers, and Peavy to the Red Sox. Peavy's value has since dipped, and not just because he’s another year older. His ERA is a full run higher than his career mark, and his WHIP is the highest it has been since his 2002 rookie campaign. His average fastball velocity has dropped from 90 to 89 mph, and the rest of his offerings have diminished as well.

His 1-8 record in 19 starts can be partly explained by a lack of run support and a defense that has been poor at times. But the bottom line is it has been a subpar year by Peavy's standards.

However, because of his competitiveness and winning attitude, Peavy could rebound in the second half and help a contending team at the back of their rotation. To acquire Peavy, the trade cost will be significantly less than it was this time last year, but the Red Sox should still be able to land a solid, albeit not top, prospect.

Milwaukee Brewers

Why? The Brewers are pleased with the top four in their starting rotation, Kyle Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and Matt Garza. However, their fifth starter has struggled mightily; Marco Estrada was demoted to the bullpen, and rookie Jimmy Nelson has not looked good after two starts. Peavy would provide an immediate upgrade there.

Who? The Red Sox will probably start by asking for one of their top outfield prospects in Mitch Haniger or Tyrone Taylor, an offer I expect GM Doug Melvin to politely decline. However, power-hitting outfielder Victor Roache, the Brewers' first-round pick in the 2012 draft, might be enough to get it done. Roache has hit 33 home runs and driven in 107 runs in his first two years of professional ball, but he has struggled to get on base consistently (.307 career OBP). He's a project, but he's worth taking a chance on, given his power potential.

Will it happen? There's a good chance this could happen, especially because the Braves seem to have lost interest and the Cardinals and Mariners appear to be chasing a higher-level starter.

Seattle Mariners

Why? The Mariners are second in the American League in team ERA and need a bat much more than starting pitching, but Mariners GM Jack Zduirencik continues to pursue both. If they fall short in their bid to get David Price, then Peavy might work at the back of their rotation. His leadership would certainly help in the development of some of their younger arms.

Who? The Red Sox will start by asking for D.J. Peterson, Gabby Guerrero or Julio Morban, and I would think the Mariners would decline on all three. However, Tyler O'Neill might be the match for both sides. O'Neill, 19, was the Mariners' third-round pick in the 2013 draft.

Will it happen? There's a moderate chance. He's down on their pitching preferences list, but he'd certainly fit well in the Mariners' clubhouse.

St. Louis Cardinals

Why? The Cardinals would prefer to trade for Price, but they're reluctant to give up all the young pitching they control for the next five years. Although their scouts weren't impressed with Peavy, his veteran presence is something the Cardinals will consider if their injured pitchers don't get healthier. The Cardinals are expected to find out the fate of Michael Wacha soon, and that could have an impact if they decide to trade for another starter.

Who? Stephen Piscotty straight-up could be the deal. The Cardinals have so much outfield depth with Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, Oscar Taveras, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos that Piscotty could be made available. He's currently hitting .298/.360/.427 with 27 doubles, 6 homers and 52 RBIs in 95 games at Triple-A Memphis.

Will it happen? It's doubtful. The Cardinals are downplaying their interest behind the scenes, but that doesn't mean they won't change their mind given their injuries.

Rays win streak affecting Price trade talk.

Spoiler

ST. LOUIS -- The Tampa Bay Rays keep complicating an already wrenching decision -- by winning.

Their sweep of the Minnesota Twins over the weekend cut their deficit in the American League East to 7½ games and in the wild-card race to six games, gaps they have overcome in past seasons.

There are 10 days until the July 31 trade deadline. Ten days to mull over the trade options of their franchise pitcher, David Price. Ten days to decide whether to buy, sell or both. Ten days for other teams to try to make the same aggressive play that Oakland did when it swapped star prospect Addison Russell, among others, for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

The Rays will factor many things into their decision as to whether to trade Price, including their place in the standings, how well they are playing, their need for prospects and Price's trade value, which gradually slides downward as he nears free agency. But one executive involved in the conversations with Tampa Bay believes that, ultimately, it's the potential buyers that will clarify the choice for the Rays with the quality of their offers.

"It all comes down to which team decides to be aggressive, the Dodgers, Cardinals or Mariners," said the rival official. "Maybe none of them will be."

Other teams are monitoring Price's situation, but some rival officials view the Dodgers, Cardinals and Mariners as the teams best positioned to make a deal. There are lots of pros and cons for each of those teams as they assess the possibilities.

For the Dodgers, here are the pros: Adding Price would increase the club's chances of winning the World Series, which is the working order from the top down. The Dodgers look a lot like the Tigers the last two seasons, possessing a lineup with some gaps, a dysfunctional defense and a rotation that could win in October. If L.A. ran out Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Price in the first three games of a series, well, that would be ridiculous.

The cons: The Dodgers look old and desperately need to get younger. At some point, their effort to turn over the roster will force them to eat a huge portion of the $70 million or so owed to Carl Crawford, the $62 million owed to Andre Ethier or the $115 million owed to Matt Kemp. A lot of folks in the organization want Joc Pederson in the big leagues right now to improve the center-field defense and provide energy. Corey Seager is a very high-end infield prospect. These two players are poised to make up the lifeblood of the Dodgers' future, within the current composition of the organization.

To get Price, the Rays would insist on at least one and probably both. The better the Rays play, the easier it makes it for them to hold at their top-of-the-line price tag. While the prospect of adding Price must be incredibly attractive for the Dodgers, it would be excruciating for them to part with Pederson or Seager. In fact, I don't think there's any chance the Dodgers give up both. If the Rays are willing to build a deal around one or the other, there might be some middle ground to work with.

For the Cardinals, the pros: Michael Wacha is set to have an MRI today, though he said Sunday that his right shoulder is feeling much better. But even if Wacha gets clearance to begin a throwing program, he will need weeks to build up his pitch count. The addition of Price would give St. Louis a left-handed twin to Adam Wainwright and make the whole pitching staff better by removing stress on a bullpen that has had to suck up a lot of innings. The Cardinals rank 29th in runs scored, and it's still unclear how good they might be. But with Price and Wainwright, they would be strong contenders to reach the World Series again.

The cons: It's hard to imagine the Cardinals making a Price trade without including Oscar Taveras, at a time when St. Louis -- like the Dodgers -- needs to get younger and add power. Taveras is young and has power. The Rays would want more than Taveras as well, probably insisting on some of the Cardinals' great young pitching.

By the way, in at least one corner of the Cardinals' organization, the idea of pursuing a megadeal for Price and Evan Longoria has been kicked around, with the thinking that Matt Carpenter would shift back to second base. But there is zero indication that has ever been brought to the Rays' attention and may be just loose conversation at this point. Coincidentally, Price and Longoria made it to the ballpark in St. Louis on Sunday night to see the end of the Dodgers' victory, and each tweeted about their experience.

For the Mariners, the pros: They haven't made the postseason in more than a decade, and their attendance has plummeted. If Seattle moves on Price, its rotation would be incredible with Price joining Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. The impact of the deal might turn out to mirror what happened in Milwaukee in 2008, after the Brewers traded for CC Sabathia and got into the postseason dance.

The cons: Seattle is way behind the Athletics and almost as far behind the Angels, arguably the two best teams in baseball. Given Oakland's incredibly soft second-half schedule -- 22 of its next 64 games are against Houston and Texas -- it's hard to imagine the Mariners winning this division. So in essence, Seattle would be trading a huge cache of prospects for possibly a one-game wild-card playoff. The Mariners must decide whether that slender hope is worth two elite prospects.

And let's remember, Price's agent has made it clear that the left-hander will not sign a long-term deal with the Mariners, meaning Seattle would have to trade big prospects for, at most, about 15 months of Price.

The Rays must factor this into the equation too. If they trade Price now, the left-hander's impending free agency would not really be a factor in talks. An interested team would understand it was getting Price for this year and next season, with nothing else guaranteed.

But if Tampa Bay carries Price into the winter, rival officials believe that would change. "You'd want a window to talk about an extension," said one executive. In other words, there would probably be some depreciation in Price's value.

A best guess as of today (and that's all it is, because no deal is close as of Monday morning): I think Price will be traded before July 31 and that the Rays have the best chance to get their whopper deal from the Mariners. But unless Seattle goes nuts to land the left-hander, I think St. Louis might actually be the best fit.

Around the league

• Speaking of Price, Twins GM Terry Ryan had great things to say about him, as La Velle Neal writes.

• The Dodgers simply had enough with the Cardinals on "Sunday Night Baseball." They had seen Hanley Ramirez get injured by Joe Kelly in the playoffs last year with a fastball to the ribs, Yasiel Puig was hit in the hand by a Kelly changeup that went awry Saturday, and Sunday night Ramirez was hit again.

So Kershaw's first pitch in the bottom of the fourth inning was sent at Matt Holliday's hip. Message sent.

The Dodgers feel that the Cardinals are careless in how they pitch inside. Kershaw simply stood up for Ramirez, writes Bill Plaschke.

Los Angeles rallied late to win, and St. Louis was unable to complete a sweep, as Rick Hummel writes.

Meanwhile, Ramirez was hit in the hand later in the game too, and X-rays came back negative.

• After the Dodgers lost June 4, manager Don Mattingly described his team's play with a profanity. Two days later, before L.A. began a series in Colorado, Mattingly held a team meeting in which he challenged the players to be less selfish and to not let other stuff get in the way of playing the game. Whether it was related or not, the Dodgers won 17 of their final 24 games in June.

• Jon Lester was great again, this time against the Royals, and the price tag for the Red Sox to sign him keeps rocketing upward. From ESPN Stats & Info on how he won:

A) The Royals were 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.
B) The Royals were 1-for-11 with five strikeouts (and one walk) versus Lester's fastball.
C) He got seven outs (and allowed two hits) on the 27 curveballs he threw. That actually was a step down for Lester. He had not allowed a hit with his curveball in his previous five starts, and opponents were 0-for-22 against it.

And this from Elias: Lester has seven consecutive starts in which he has allowed two earned runs or fewer. This is the second time in his career he has had a streak that long. Only two other Red Sox lefties have had at least two such streaks: Dutch Leonard and Babe Ruth.

Lester has become a model of consistency, writes Kyle Brasseur.

• Remember, the Orioles' schedule at the outset of the second half is absolutely brutal, and some of the other AL East teams have already cut into their lead. Baltimore was shut down Sunday by Sonny Gray, as Susan Slusser writes.

From ESPN Stats & Info on how Gray won:

A) He threw 35 curveballs, tied for the third most he has thrown in a start in his career, and the pitch was effective: Batters went 0-for-10 with four strikeouts against it.
B) Gray generated nine swings and misses with his curveball, the most in a start in his career.
C) 74 percent of his curveballs were down in the zone, the highest rate of any start in his career in which he has thrown at least 20 curveballs.
D) He threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of 25 batters (68 percent), which is his highest in a start in more than two months and the fourth-highest rate in a start in his career.
E) He got batters to swing at 10 pitches out of the strike zone in two-strike counts, one shy of his career high (which came in his start on July 13).

• The Yankees completed a sweep with an unusual walk-off hit.

• Odrisamer Despaigne nearly made Padres history.

• The Angels mocked the heck out of Fernando Rodney in the midst of beating him. The Angels were on the mark against Rodney, who blew the lead for the Mariners, writes Bob Dutton.

• The Giants lost Brandon Belt and Sunday's game, as Henry Schulman writes.

Trade stuff

1. Tigers owner Mike Ilitch must bolster his bullpen to win a World Series, writes Bob Wojnowski.

2. The Twins are definitely sinking, and probably selling, writes Tom Powers. All-Star catcher Kurt Suzuki, who's hitting .305 with a .364 on-base percentage, would have value in the trade market as perhaps the only every-day catcher who could become available, and Josh Willingham might be one of the few right-handed power bats, although he has just one homer and two doubles since June 24.

3. The Mets want to trade Bartolo Colon, but there's a problem: Some rival evaluators say their teams would have no interest in Colon.

4. Cliff Lee takes the mound tonight, and he will be free of restrictions, says Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.

5. Pirates GM Neal Huntington is staying patient as the trade deadline approaches, writes Karen Price.

6. The Jays are pondering their trade options, writes Richard Griffin.

7. Trading Jim Johnson remains a high priority for the Athletics, writes John Hickey.

8. Reds GM Walt Jocketty is perusing the market.

9. The Indians probably won't be buyers or sellers, writes Terry Pluto.

Dings and dents

1. Ubaldo Jimenez isn't ready to start his minor league rehab.

2. Salvador Perez expects to play today.

3. Michael Wacha is optimistic.

4. Troy Tulowitzki sat out Sunday's game because of a sore thigh.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Bud Norris will pitch for the Orioles tonight.

2. Cody Ross is losing playing time in the Arizona outfield.

Sunday's games

1. The Astros banged out a lot of hits.

2. Ron Roenicke was fuming about mistakes that the Brewers made.

3. The losses continue to mount for the Cubs.

4. Nick Tepesch got knocked around.

5. Jayson Werth walked it off for the Nationals.

6. Kyle Kendrick had an ugly loss.

7. Zack Wheeler threw well in the Mets' loss.

8. The Pirates completed a sweep.

9. Brad Hand gave the Marlins a much-needed lift.

10. The Blue Jays won consecutive games and gained ground.

11. Arizona completed a sweep as well.

12. But the Indians couldn't finish a sweep.

AL West

1. From ESPN Stats & Info: Mike Trout hit his "low" point this season on May 19, as his batting average dropped to .263 ("low" in quotes because he had a .257 average through April 9). Since May 20 -- exactly two months now -- he has been absolutely unstoppable. He went 2-for-4 with a homer Sunday.

Mike Trout
2014 season

Through May 19 Since
BA .263 .358
OPS .867 1.143
HR 8 15
BA with RISP .205 .475*
* 19 hits in 40 AB with RISP since May 20
2. The wit of the Astros' scouting director has been tested. The Astros reduced their offer to Brady Aiken to the minimum of about $3.1 million from $6.5 million, a major sign of concern about a condition in his elbow. But when the Astros increased the offer by about $2 million on the final day leading up to the deadline, say rival officials, that was the big tell that maybe Houston's machinations weren't all about the pitcher's elbow and perhaps weren't entirely sincere. If they had left the offer at about $3.1 million -- which Aiken was never going to accept -- it would have been a clear sign that they were prepared to walk away from the player due to his physical state.

AL Central

1. Drew Smyly has the repertoire of a starting pitcher, writes Shawn Windsor.

2. The White Sox hope to get rolling.

3. When the pressure turns on, the Royals fall apart, writes Sam Mellinger.

AL East

1. The Flyin' Hawaiian is back and helping the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.

NL Central

1. Ike Davis has been really struggling.

NL East

1. Alex Wood threw a gem.

2. All things considered, it's amazing the Braves are in first place, writes David O'Brien.

Lastly

• The Detroit Tigers will keep their spring training home in Lakeland, Florida.

• Vanderbilt's new football coach will be at ESPN today.

• Eric Nadel will get a plaque in Cooperstown this week.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Ryan Braun's power outage.

Spoiler

An experienced and smart evaluator who has seen Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun a couple of times this year noted all of the twists in his career in a conversation on Monday.

“Wins the Most Valuable Player Award [in 2011] hitting with all kinds of power,” he said. “Tests positive, [but] wins his appeal. Has another big year, with power, second in the MVP. Then, Biogenesis.”

Yes. He was suspended.

“He’s had a lot of injuries. Now he’s a completely different.”

How so?

“Takes the ball to the opposite field a lot,” said the evaluator. “I think he’s more of an opposite field hitter than almost anybody in baseball. He doesn’t really pull the ball anymore, and I don’t think he hits the ball as far as he used to.”

On home runs?

“No, in general. I don’t think the ball goes nearly as far.”

Braun is having a good season, without question, with a .354 on-base percentage. He’s on track to accumulate a respectable 63 extra-base hits -- but with 19 homers and 37 walks, very different from his 2012 totals of 41 homers and 63 walks.

The observations were interesting, and so I asked “Baseball Tonight” senior researcher Justin Havens, half of the podcast’s Fireball Express, to look more deeply into Braun’s performance, to see how close the evaluator’s eye test was to reality.

What Justin found was amazing. What follows is the note he sent back.

The numbers are clear: a far greater percentage of Braun's hits are going to opposite field than in previous seasons, and the balls he does pull are being pulled with noticeably less authority. What has caused this clear departure is for others to speculate on, but it is clear Braun is not the hitter he was in previous seasons.

Change in batted ball profile

Based on batted balls, Braun has been trending towards hitting more balls to opposite field for several seasons. His percent of batted balls to go to opposite field has increased each season since 2009, and, as you'd expect, his rate of batted balls being pulled has declined each season since 2009. But when you isolate hits -- and not batted balls -- the change from last season becomes apparent.

In terms of his hits, Braun has the fourth-highest rate of hits to opposite field, behind only Everth Cabrera (50.7 percent), DJ LeMahieu (48.2 percent) and Joe Mauer (46.3 percent) -- not exactly the profile of a dynamic power hitter. He ranks 146th out of 163 qualified batters in percent of hits pulled at 30.8 percent.

If you isolate it to pitches on the outer half, it becomes even more extreme: nearly 64 percent of his hits that come on a pitch to the outer half are being hit to opposite field, the second-highest rate in MLB behind only LeMahieu.

Hitting with less authority

Not only is Braun pulling the ball less often, but when he does pull the ball, he's doing so with noticeably less authority. His slugging percentage on balls pulled has dropped considerably -- it was between .728 and .799 each season from 2009-12. It was .617 last season and is .566 this season. The MLB average this season, for context, is .612.

Not only is he having less success when he pulls the ball, but his batted balls are simply traveling a shorter distance than they used to. In terms of hit distance, his average fly ball distance last season was 299 feet, and it was 289 in 2012 and 291 in 2011. It is 282 this season, down 17 feet on average from last season.

When you isolate it to fly balls in the pull direction, it becomes even starker -- his average distance on fly balls pulled is down 42 feet from last season.

Much more aggressive

Seemingly out of nowhere, Braun has become one of the most aggressive hitters in the game. From 2009-13, Braun swung on 45.9 percent of pitches -- this season, he's swinging at north of 51 percent of the pitches he sees. His chase rate -- percent of pitches out of the strike zone that result in a swing -- has skyrocketed from 31.8 percent from 2009-13 all the way to 39 percent this season, one of the highest marks in baseball.

It gets more extreme when you look at two-strike counts. Braun's approach in two-strike counts has seemingly deteriorated, as he's chasing almost 55 percent of pitches thrown out of the zone -- a huge increase over last season's 41.7 percent -- and he's having less success with two strikes with this approach.

Most plentiful positions if you’re looking for help, according to an official

1. Right-handed relievers.

2. Starting pitching

3. Shortstops. Including Asdrubal Cabrera, if the Indians can find value close to what they would get if they give Cabrera a qualifying offer after this season and recoup a draft pick (which is what other teams expect them to do); Yunel Escobar; Jimmy Rollins.

4. Corner outfielders, including Matt Joyce of the Rays.

5. Second base, including Ben Zobrist (if Tampa Bay sells).

There are far fewer palatable options at the other spots -- first base, third base, center field, catcher and left-handed relievers.

Other trade stuff

1. The Padres have their trade assets on the table, writes Corey Brock.

2. To date, the Phillies are telling teams that Cole Hamels is not available.

3. Trading David Price is no longer a sure thing for the Rays, writes Joel Sherman.

4. Cliff Lee made his first start off the disabled list Monday, and was OK -- not awful, not good, with his velocity generally in the range of where he’s pitched the last couple of years. Rival execs wonder if the Phillies will come to grips with the reality that they have a choice: Either dump the money owed to Lee, about $35 million, and get almost nothing in return in prospects, or eat a solid portion of the money and receive a second-tier prospect.

“That really hasn’t been their mindset so far,” said one official.

Jerry Crasnick writes about the audition here. An AL scout’s observations, from Jerry’s piece:

"I thought he showed some rust," an AL scout said of Lee. "His fastball command was off and he wasn't nearly as precise as usual. He threw too many hittable pitches, and his overall stuff was flatter than normal. Give him another start before rushing to judgment. He threw strikes, but not with the level of precision he typically does.

From ESPN Stats and Info, how Lee lost (the numbers back up the scout's take):

A) Lee threw only 59.6 percent strikes with his fastball (2/4-seam), his lowest percentage since last June.

B) Only 37 percent of the fastballs Giants hitters took were called strikes, Lee's lowest percentage since last September.

C) Giants hitters were 6-for-11 in at-bats ending with a Lee fastball, including two extra-base hits.

D) Giants hitters put 11 of their 17 swings (65 percent) in play against Lee's fastball, the highest by a Lee opponent since July 2012.

5. Matt Cain’s elbow trouble seems open-ended and serious, and the Giants may need a starting pitcher.

6. The Giants signed Dan Uggla, but to be clear, there are no strings attached, no guarantees of anything. San Francisco gets a free look of about 10 days, to see what it sees in Uggla. Jeff Schultz thinks the Uggla move will bite the Braves.

7. Sources say the Dodgers would love to trade Matt Kemp; they are as unhappy with him as he is with them, apparently. But there is the not-so-small matter of the $115 million owed to him that makes him all but impossible to move. The two sides will have to make a difficult marriage work, it appears.

• Kemp played right field Monday and the Dodgers won, 5-2.

8. Buck Showalter wonders about the price tag for Joe All-Star.

9. Tommy Milone’s request to be traded away from a World Series contender is very 1990, so unusual that you wonder what kind of advice he’s getting.

For a player with two-plus years of service time in the big leagues, there’s one obvious solution: Pitch better and wait for the climb up the arbitration ladder, which should start for him this winter. And then it’ll all work out. He’s pitched effectively, but his numbers suggest that Milone is well-served by pitching for the Athletics, with their good defensive outfield and in a home park favorable to pitchers.

Oakland has stockpiled rotation depth, through the trade for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, and it so happens that because of his service time, Milone drew the short straw and was sent back to the minors. If he keeps pitching well, there will soon be a day when the rules will favor Milone.

10. Alex Anthopoulos is having dialogue.

11. The Cardinals got what they believe is good news on Michael Wacha, but the reality is that he won’t be pitching for many weeks. Within the Rick Hummel piece, Cards GM John Mozeliak says that Wacha’s status and what the team does before the trade deadline are independent of each other.

12. Cincinnati needs a hitter, period, writes Paul Daugherty. Alex Rios would be a really, really nice fit, on the face of the situation, but Texas is working in a seller’s market and can maintain a high price tag.

13. The White Sox should follow the Cubs’ lead at the trade deadline.

Around the league

• On Monday’s podcast, Hall of Fame president Jeff Idelson gave some back stories about how inductees prepare for their big day, and for their speeches; Evan Drellich discussed the fallout in Houston from the Astros’ failure to sign the No. 1 overall pick; and Crasnick ran through all of the unwritten rules that came up over the weekend, including the question of whether firing imaginary arrows across a field is acceptable.

• The Padres are in the midst of their second round of interviews. The four general manager candidates are very different in their personalities, in their baseball backgrounds; it’ll be fascinating to see what direction San Diego takes this.

• Andrelton Simmons made an incredible play last night, and the funny thing is that he probably thinks he could’ve done more.

• So far, Baltimore is 2-2 on its 10-game West Coast trip. It can work with that. But the Red Sox are surging; they’re six games out in the wild card race after their win Monday. Adam Jones is single-handedly wrecking the myth that the Home Run Derby wrecks swings.

• The Red Sox are keeping everybody guessing, writes Gordon Edes.

• Brock Holt made a good catch.

• Justin Verlander continues to adjust to a new reality without elite velocity, and on Monday, he worked with it.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Bryce Harper got a night off against a left-handed starter.

2. Gregory Polanco got a night off against a left-hander.

3. Erasmo Ramirez is starting today.

Monday’s games

1. Doug Fister and the Nationals handled Game 1 of their series in Colorado.

2. Jon Niese was rusty.

3. The Yankees’ infield defense has been horrific, and it cost them Monday. Pitcher Shane Greene has apparently joined the legions of pitchers who are uncomfortable throwing to first base.

4. The Blue Jays were demolished, writes Mike Rutsey.

5. Garrett Jones came up big.

6. Miles Mikolas had a nice outing.

7. The Royals continue to come up small at a crucial time: They were shut down by Chris Sale.

8. The Indians were taken down by Josh Willingham.

9. Chris Sale was The Man for the White Sox.

10. The Brewers took advantage of the Reds’ mistakes.

11. The Mariners easily handled the Mets.

12. Mike Trout was not happy about the strike zone.

Dings and dents

1. Shin-Soo Choo regrets not going to the disabled list in April.

2. Justin Masterson will make a minor-league rehab start Friday.

3. Adam Eaton is playing with a broken finger.

4. Justin Morneau is hurt.

5. X-rays turned out well for Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig.

NL East

• Chase Utley’s loyalty defies logic, writes Sam Donnellon.

NL Central

• Jordy Mercer has been helping the Pirates.

• Francisco Liriano is key for the Pirates, writes Rob Rossi.

• The Reds can only juggle their lineup so much.

NL West

• The Rockies’ season has been especially tough on Walt Weiss.

AL East

• Evan Longoria is trying to solve his power outage, writes Marc Topkin.

• Jake Odorizzi is going home, writes Roger Mooney.

AL Central

• Yordano Ventura’s pitching stats fell off after his injury, writes Andy McCullough.

AL West

• Stephen Vogt has become a fan favorite.

• The Astros’ scouting director is looking ahead.

• The Angels are not going to shut down Garrett Richards due to innings limits.

Lastly

• Yu Darvish likes the idea of a six-man rotation.

• Kirk Gibson says he has no bad blood with the Tigers.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Astros have a major perception problem.

Spoiler

Perception matters, which is why the chief justice of the Supreme Court has historically worked for unanimity in decisions, and why the loser in the presidential election gives a concession speech, to legitimize the process.

Perception is particularly important in business, when you are asking potential customers to buy your product, and buy into your product. Perception is why the St. Louis Cardinals will never substantively alter their timeless logo, and why the New York Yankees will always wear pinstripes.

But the power of perception is what the Houston Astros have ignored in their machinations, including those leading up to their failure to sign No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken by Friday's deadline. The perception of their decisions -- in the eyes of some of their own players, players with other teams, agents and, most importantly, potential customers -- may take many years for them to overcome. Evan Drellich was right in what he wrote in late May: The Astros have an enormous perception problem.

The Astros have had an incredible opportunity, having picked at the top of the draft for three straight seasons, but time and again, they have been penny-wise and pound-foolish and damaged their brand along the way.

The Astros have their own self image, but they need to know that among players and agents, they are seen as a team that tried to strong-arm the best player in their organization, George Springer, into a team-friendly extension, and then punished Springer when he didn’t agree to a new deal by sending him to the minors, again. The fact that Springer has starred since being called up April 16 has only reinforced the perception among agents and some players that the Astros were more interested in manipulating Springer than they were about winning.

Mark Appel was at or near the top of a lot of draft boards in 2013, but some rival executives were surprised that the Astros chose to take him over third baseman Kris Bryant with the No. 1 overall pick. “Taking a position player means a lot less risk,” said one high-ranking executive.

Some decisions work out, and some don’t, but the timing of how this one is playing out could not be worse. Appel is struggling badly in the minors while Bryant is wrecking his way to the big leagues, averaging a home run every 10 at-bats, and the choice of Appel over Bryant has a chance to surpass Phil Nevin over Derek Jeter in Houston draft lore as the draft decision that turned into a disaster.

The Astros are widely viewed by rival executives as a team that tanked the 2013 season, seemingly designing a team for a degree of failure that only the 1962-65 New York Mets could rival. The Astros opened the year with a $20 million payroll, and then traded almost every player making more than $1 million. You’ve heard of too big to fail? Well, Houston had so little talent and so much inexperience that there was no chance the Astros could compete.

Not surprisingly, the team went 51-111, earning the Astros the first pick in the 2014 draft; and now, in spite of all that losing, and the summerlong string of wipeouts, they failed to sign Aiken.

Only Astros officials know for sure why they reduced their offer to Aiken, and they maintain they have done nothing wrong. The perception in a lot of corners -- including that of the players' association -- is that the Astros shifted their offers around in an effort to lock up three draft picks, and not just Aiken. Anybody with a paper and pencil can figure out that the scope of the attempted reduction for Aiken almost perfectly matches the money discussed with fifth-round pick Jacob Nix and 21st-round pick Mac Marshall.

[+] EnlargeBrady Aiken
Larry Goren/Four Seam Images/AP Images
Brady Aiken became only the third No. 1 overall pick in the MLB draft not to sign.
The problem for the Astros -- the great miscalculation -- is built around the fact that widely respected and generally understated agent Casey Close is an adviser to both players. He knows when the proposals were altered, and by how much. He is well aware how Nix arrived with his family in Houston, prepared to sign, only to be told the agreement was null and void. The perception of that stinks. He can speak firsthand to both the Aiken and Nix families about how this played out.

It stands to reason that Aiken’s family would not take the calls of the Astros on Friday because of that perception -- about the Houston offers shifting from $6.5 million to $3.1 million to about $5 million. Or maybe the Astros couldn’t get the Aikens to take their phone calls because of how the Astros’ concern over Aiken’s ulnar collateral ligament leaked out, not long before published stories about Aiken’s college eligibility being in jeopardy. As one longtime agent said, “I stopped believing in coincidences a long time ago.”

It may be that the Astros boxed themselves in, negotiating the signing bonus with Nix while assuming that eventually Aiken would capitulate and agree to their reduced terms. It’s possible that by the last hours, they weren’t in position to give Aiken the $6.5 million initially promised because that would have ended any chance of them revitalizing the Nix deal.

But in the end, the Astros had a $5 million-ish offer on the table to Aiken, a rollback of $1.5 million over the initial agreement, which tells us that while they still had concerns about Aiken’s medicals, the UCL issue was hardly a deal-breaker. At some moment in this process, the Astros should’ve stopped obsessing over the numbers and instead taken a step back and assessed the potential for damage to the perception of the organization if the worst-case scenario happened, that Aiken and Nix failed to sign.

This is because the fallout from that outcome could linger for years, hanging over the team like a radioactive cloud. For the sake of $1.5 million.

If the Astros could have navigated their way out of the Aiken mess somewhere along the way -- before their concerns about his medicals leaked out -- the savings in how they’re perceived, the protection of their brand, would’ve been worth a whole lot more than $1.5 million.

The surcharge for their recent actions is already in place, and figures to cost them even more going into the future. Last winter, Scott Kazmir -- a Houston native -- opted to sign a two-year deal with the Oakland Athletics instead of following up on the Astros’ overtures. Houston was able to sign veteran right-hander Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30 million deal, an overpay of perhaps 20 to 50 percent in the eyes of many in the industry, because the Astros have been so bad, and figure to be terrible for the foreseeable future.

Fairly or not, the perception of them is shattered, and they will have to pay for its reconstruction, one way or another.

The Astros have the second-worst record in baseball after losing Saturday. Controversy seems to follow the Astros, writes Drellich.

Dodgers-Cardinals

• We’ve got Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers against Carlos Martinez and the St. Louis Cardinals on "Sunday Night Baseball" (8 ET on ESPN and WatchESPN).

The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Kershaw is the only pitcher in major league history to win eight consecutive starts within a single season with at least 80 strikeouts and an ERA under 1.00 over that span. Kershaw has allowed one run or fewer in seven straight starts, tied with Kevin Brown (2003) and Fernando Valenzuela (1981) for the longest such streak by a Dodgers pitcher since 1900.

• The Dodgers looked flat on Saturday, and after the game, Don Mattingly acknowledged that Hanley Ramirez's swing has been affected by a right shoulder injury. The Cardinals won, but Matt Holliday was injured. The Cardinals ruled out a concussion.

The Dodgers need Joc Pederson, writes Bill Plaschke. Yasiel Puig isn’t worried about his swollen hand.

Around the league

• The Indians are making a major statement coming right out of the break, with three straight wins in Detroit. Remember, the Tigers have a brutal second-half schedule, with 54 games in 55 days.

• On Friday’s podcast, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch assessed the Cardinals’ situation, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com weighed in on the Mets’ issues and Jerry Crasnick discussed how the Athletics may have their best team of the last decade.

• A few weeks ago, Los Angeles Angels GM Jerry Dipoto talked over the phone about how his bullpen problems actually weren’t as bad as they seemed. Joe Smith had thrown effectively, he said, and so had Kevin Jepsen. They had a few trouble spots, for sure, perhaps a need for a closer and a left-hander or two, but the underbelly of the group, Dipoto felt, was better than its reputation.

So he had not gone for a complete overhaul for the bullpen in recent weeks, and the bullpen already had started to perform better. But then he added Jason Grilli, left-hander Joe Thatcher and All-Star closer Huston Street, and the Angels now appear to have a bullpen that appears capable of more than holding up its end of the work.

Street has long-term aspirations, writes Mike DiGiovanna.

• Some teams say the Rockies have never told them that shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is available in trade, and there is general skepticism that Colorado could find an acceptable deal -- short of an outright dumping of the contract -- if the Rockies decided to move him.

MLB WAR Leaders, Entering Sunday
Player WAR
Troy Tulowitzki 5.6*
Mike Trout 5.6
Adam Wainwright 5.1
Josh Donaldson 4.9
Andrew McCutchen 4.7
Giancarlo Stanton 4.7
*5.3 WAR for all of 2013 (126 Games)
Not only would an interested team have to surrender the value of Tulowitzki, as a player -- the MLB leader in WAR at the moment, as seen in the chart at right -- but also the value of what Tulowitzki represents to the Rockies, as their Cal Ripken or Tony Gwynn.

“They’d ask for seven prospects,” said one official dismissively.

Tulowitzki’s situation is also complicated by the money owed to him, about $124 million over the next seven-plus seasons, and his extensive injury history. From ESPN Stats & Information: Tulowitzki played 155 games in his first full season in MLB in 2007. Since then, he's played in 150 games only once (151 in 2009).

Tulowitzki got hurt again Saturday.

Some key questions about the Rockies need answers, writes Patrick Saunders.

• Felix Hernandez is on a serious roll, and the Mariners beat the Angels on Saturday night.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Hernandez has now recorded 12 consecutive starts with at least seven innings pitched and two or fewer runs allowed. That's tied with Chief Bender (in 1907) for the longest single-season streak by an AL pitcher in modern MLB history and one shy of tying Tom Seaver's MLB record. Over the past 10 seasons, Hernandez has the most such starts total (96), well ahead of second-best Cliff Lee (80).

Over the past five seasons, Hernandez leads MLB in starts of seven or more innings pitched in which he relented one earned run or fewer and did not get a win.

• Joel Sherman writes about an unappreciated Derek Jeter trait. Jeter makes the routine look extraordinary, writes Harvey Araton.

Trade deadline stuff

1. There continues to be an expectation among rival evaluators that the Tampa Bay Rays will essentially make their decision sometime in the next week about whether to trade David Price, who was great again on Saturday, this time against the Minnesota Twins.

From ESPN Stats & Info, here's how he won:

A. Price threw 25 changeups, which netted him eight outs and yielded only one baserunner (on an error).

B. He went to two strikes on 21 hitters, allowing only two of them to get hits. This is the second time this season he's gone to two strikes on that many hitters in a game (there have been only three other games in which a pitcher has gone to two strikes on that many hitters this season).

C. He threw 119 pitches, but only 12 of those came in hitters' counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1).

2. Trading Cliff Lee hardly guarantees a big return, writes Matt Gelb.

Gelb is right; the option year cuts into Lee’s value significantly.

3. The Brewers are unlikely to make a big move before the trade deadline, writes Tom Haudricourt.

4. The Cubs await more word of trade activity. I speculated here the other day that if the Rays and Mariners discuss a David Price deal, the Cubs are the perfect third team to help deliver the position prospect(s) Tampa Bay wants and needs. The Rays could send Price to Seattle, the Mariners could deliver pitching to the Cubs (hello, Taijuan Walker), and the Cubs could send a young infielder to the Rays.

5. The Tigers shouldn’t give up too much to add a reliever, writes Drew Sharp. Joakim Soria and Joaquin Benoit are perfect trade targets, because they could help in the eighth inning, and if more is needed (should Joe Nathan falter), Soria and Benoit are capable of shifting to the ninth inning.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Jordan Zimmermann is still scheduled to start Tuesday for the Nationals.

2. Cody Asche may be shifted to left field.

Dings and dents

1. CC Sabathia is confident he’ll be ready for the start of spring training.

2. Joe Mauer has taken some small steps toward returning to the Twins.

3. Jason Vargas is working his way back from an appendectomy.

4. Shane Victorino made his return to the Boston lineup.

5. Henderson Alvarez left his start Saturday with a bruised shoulder.

6. Evan Gattis is getting better.

7. Alex Rios sprained his ankle.

Saturday’s games

1. Jordy Mercer hoisted the Pirates.

2. The Orioles got a really important win Saturday, after a heartbreaking loss on Friday.

3. The Yankees just keep getting great pitching.

4. Matt Garza had the shortest outing of his career.

5. The White Sox won again.

6. Danny Duffy was good, but the Royals’ offense was not.

7. The Giants looked rejuvenated.

NL East

• The Mets aren’t concerned about Travis d'Arnaud's passed balls.

• The Braves did the right thing with Dan Uggla.

NL Central

• Pedro Alvarez has been making a lot of throwing errors, Bill Brink writes.

• The Reds’ starting pitchers have been used a lot.

NL West

• Oliver Perez has had a good season.

AL East

• Rubby De La Rosa is finding his groove.

• The Jays’ top picks aren’t working out.

AL West

• For Shin-Soo Choo, nothing is getting better.

Other stuff

• Dave Stewart talked about the 1989 World Series.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Inactivity at an all-time high in baseball.

Spoiler

Brady Anderson swung as hard as he possibly could throughout the 1996 season and blasted 50 homers. He swung hard on the first pitch, he swung aggressively when the count was 0-2, he swung aggressively always.

He scored 117 runs and compiled 92 extra-base hits, 76 walks and 106 strikeouts, and late that season, Orioles hitting coach Rick Down mentioned that before Anderson, he had never seen anyone succeed with that approach. Most hitters made adjustments according to the count, Down noted at the time, cutting down on their swing when they reached two strikes, protecting against a strikeout.

But more and more, that sort of thinking has become outdated, and a whole lot of hitters are thinking like Anderson did. Swing hard throughout the entire count. Look to damage throughout the entire count.

The problem for them -- and for baseball, really -- is that this approach is not really working. Run production is down, and the rate of strikeouts is rocketing upward; the rate of inaction has never been higher.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, 20 percent of all plate appearances during the 1990 season ended with a strikeout or a walk. By 2010, that had climbed to 26 percent. This year, the inaction rate of strikeouts or walks is at all-time peak of 28 percent, a staggering 40 percent higher than it was 24 years ago. That means that if you see 75 plate appearances, roughly 20 of those will result in a walk or strikeout.

The Yankees' last dynasty of 1996-2001 might have had something to do with this. They had a notoriously patient lineup of hitters who worked the count, drove up the opposing starter's pitch count and got into the opposing bullpen in the middle innings, an approach that became a model in how to hit and how to build lineups. The Red Sox won with this last fall, when they took pitches and worked the count and forced the Rays, Tigers and Cardinals to turn to relievers. Oakland is collectively having success with this in 2014.

But one of the legs has been kicked out from under that theory: Starters are throwing fewer pitches anyway, and more and more relievers are being used -- specialists who mostly seem to have good fastballs. Hitters tend to see starting pitchers two and maybe three times at the most, so getting the starting pitcher out of the game might not have the payoff it did 15 years ago.

The tradeoff for working the count, of course, is that hitters are taking strikes and eschewing the opportunity to do damage.

"I always hear about hitters wanting to go deep," former Nationals manager Davey Johnson said last summer. "Getting deep in the count; letting the ball get deep on them in the strike zone. What happened to looking for an opportunity to do damage? I've never seen so many hitters take strikes right down the middle. What are they waiting for?"

It's a great question, because a strong case can be made that that prevailing approach of hitters has not been effective. With run production in regression, there are approximately 100 hitters on a pace to compile 100 strikeouts this season, from B.J. Upton -- who has taken a called third strike 42 times this season -- to Ian Desmond, who had more strikeouts in June (40) than Joe DiMaggio did in any season in his career.

It's not up to each of these individual hitters to address the big-picture question that's attached to the trend: Is this bad for baseball? Is this making baseball more difficult to watch, with close to three out of 10 plate appearances resulting in the baseball not being put in play?

Anthony Rendon, the 24-year-old infielder for the Washington Nationals, provided a focus group of one in an interview with the Washington Post this week:

Staying home for the All-Star break wasn't a big deal for Rendon, who said he never watched the game growing up. In fact, Rendon said he rarely watches the sport, preferring programs on networks such as the History channel instead.

"I don't watch baseball -- it's too long and boring," he said.


The Milwaukee Brewers have been an interesting outlier this year, as a group that doesn’t necessarily work the count. They rank 24th in walks, and 17th in strikeouts, so they're putting the ball in play -- and they are second in the National League in runs scored and sixth overall. The Angels are 18th in strikeouts, 11th in walks, and rank first in runs.

Pitchers have seemingly been ahead of hitters in making adjustments in recent years, with the increased use of cut fastballs, with more and more of them focused on building velocity, and on being as unpredictable as possible. As Tim Kurkjian said on "Baseball Tonight" Thursday, the idea of a hitters' count -- when they could fully expect a fastball and attack it -- is growing extinct, because more pitchers seem to have the ability and the desire to throw off-speed pitches in any part of the count.

Maybe Davey Johnson was right. Maybe some hitters need to change their approach and look to do damage earlier in the count before cutting down on their swing and their expectations later in the count. ("Dropping the parachute" is how Joey Votto once referred to it.) Maybe hitters shouldn't be swinging as hard as they possibly can with two strikes.

Because the numbers say it's not working for them, and maybe it's not working for the sport, either. Somebody or something needs to change.

From the Elias Sports Bureau: The MLB averages for runs scored this season and most other important batting categories are the lowest in decades.

2014 Offensive Production

Runs per game: 8.28, lowest since 1992 (8.23)
Batting average: .252, lowest since 1972 (.244)
On-base average: .316, lowest since 1972 (.311)
Slugging average: .391, lowest since 1992 (.377)
Home runs per game: 1.77, lowest since 1992 (1.44)
Walks per game: 5.95, highest since 1968 (5.63)
Strikeouts per game: 15.4, highest in MLB history

Around the league

• On Thursday’s podcast, T.R. Sullivan ran through a laundry list of the Rangers' trade intentions; Evan Drellich gave an update on the Astros' looming deadline with first overall pick Brady Aiken, who is unsigned; and Tim picked his five greatest baseball records.

Trade stuff

1. John Farrell must keep the Red Sox focused, with the trade deadline looming.

2. The Mariners are looking to add a right-handed bat.

• Baltimore is set to play Oakland again, and Manny Machado says he has moved on from the bat-throwing incident.

• Mike Yastrzemski knocked out four hits in his Double-A debut.

• Ryan Hanigan was placed on the disabled list, and Curt Casali -- Vanderbilt guy -- was promoted.

• The Tigers need a spot starter and Drew VerHagen -- Vanderbilt guy -- will pitch that game.

• The Braves' landlord wants an answer.

• Rockies owner **** Monfort seemed to start assigning blame.

Moves, deals and decisions

Daniel Murphy
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy said this week that he would be open to a contract extension.
1. The Rangers made changes with their catching.

2. The promotion of Aaron Sanchez could be one solution to the Jays' pitching problem, writes Richard Griffin.

3. Adam Wainwright will rest this weekend.

4. Daniel Murphy would be open to a contract extension, writes Marc Carig. Again: If the Mets don’t increase their payroll for 2015, then giving Murphy an extension would eliminate any kind of flexibility the team has.

5. The Padres' search for backup help continues.

Dings and dents

• Justin Masterson will make a rehab start Sunday.

AL East

• For the Red Sox, the report card shows an epic fail, writes John Tomase.

• The Yankees open the second half in need of a surge, writes Mark Feinsand.

• There are a lot of factors in play for the Blue Jays in the second half, writes Ken Fidlin.

AL Central

• The Detroit Tigers are still Oakland’s greatest concern, writes Drew Sharp.

• Justin Verlander is losing his ability to power his way out of trouble.

• Alex Gordon's preparation has made him a star, writes Andy McCullough.

• Zack Meisel addresses the question of whether the Indians have a chance. (They do.)

• Here are five things to watch about the White Sox.

• Jose Quintana is becoming an elite level pitcher.

• The Twins need drastic change.

• The Twins are trying to douse thoughts of a fire sale, writes Mike Berardino.

AL West

• The Rangers' development phase is a magic act, writes Jeff Wilson.

• The Rangers' owners get the blame for this mess, writes Mac Engel.

• The Mariners are headed in the right direction, says their manager.

• As the second half opens, the Athletics have the Angels breathing down their necks, writes John Hickey.

• Oakland's second-half schedule gets a whole lot easier.

• Anything could happen in the second half for the Angels.

NL East

• There are dark days ahead for Phillies fans, writes Mike Sielski.

• What if Pat Gillick was still the GM of the Phillies?

• It’s time to make a push, says Giancarlo Stanton.

NL Central

• The Cardinals are in a tight pennant race, writes Rick Hummel.

• The Pirates have a fresh start in the second half.

• Josh Bell is eager to impress in Double-A.

• Javier Baez thrived in his debut at second base.

• There have been changes to Chris Bosio's staff.

• The Brewers say they're up to the challenge.

NL West

• Tim Hudson provides leadership for the Giants, writes Alex Pavlovic.

• The Padres are looking at Kevin Towers as a senior adviser.

• Trevor Cahill is tweaking his delivery.

• The Rockies say they're optimistic about a late-season charge.

• The Dodgers have a lot of work ahead of them, writes Dylan Hernandez.

Lastly

• Fifteen years later, David Cone talks about his perfect game.

• In the midst of the gem, he played catch with a bat boy.

• John Erardi wishes a piece of Crosley Field had been saved.

• Jean Segura is returning to the Brewers following the death of his son.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Rays still determining market for Price.

Spoiler

Executives with some teams have not gotten a sense of urgency from the Tampa Bay Rays yet. They say David Price has not been pushed yet. Some other clubs haven't received a final call for a last, best offer.

"But they're preparing," one AL official said recently. "I don't think there's any question about that."

What that entails is identifying the young players who would become targets in other organizations if the Rays decide to move the All-Star left-hander, as they did before sending Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs -- and getting a young pitcher named Chris Archer as part of the package -- and James Shields to the Kansas City Royals as the centerpiece of a deal for Wil Myers.

Rival officials continue to believe that the Rays won't have a lot of palatable choices when they do decide to trade Price, whether it's in the next 14 days or after the season. "It's a specialized market," one executive said. "I don't think a lot of teams have the kind of prospects they would require, and on top of that, how many teams can absorb a $20 million-plus salary for next year?"

Price is making $14 million this year and will be eligible for arbitration over the winter, before becoming eligible for free agency in the fall of 2015. He'll be in line for a record-setting award if he doesn't negotiate a deal before then.

It does not help the Rays that it appears a lot of the big-market teams don't appear to be in play. The Yankees don't have a centerpiece prospect to offer for Price; rather, they would need the market to push the Rays in their direction to make a trade built around multiple second-tier prospects rather than one great prospect. The Red Sox already have a looming contractual situation -- Jon Lester's -- on their front burner. The Phillies are more likely to sell than buy.

This is why a number of interested parties continue to believe that if the Rays make a deal, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the best possible fit. Tampa Bay's asking price has been two high-end prospects, and the Dodgers have that in shortstop Corey Seager and center fielder Joc Pederson, arguably two of the best prospects in the game. But the Dodgers aren't willing to part with both, and while Price definitely would represent an upgrade in their rotation and the Dodgers are among the handful of teams that could afford him, Price is not a must-have item at this stage. The Dodgers could win the division without him.

But the Dodgers are scanning the pitching market for possible starting help and relief, and if the Rays veer over the next week to 10 days, decide to sell and begin pushing Price, the sides could find a middle ground. Remember that if Tampa Bay decides to trade Price, it likely will move Ben Zobrist as well, and Zobrist's positional flexibility would be an ideal fit for the Dodgers' current needs.

The wide-open AL East is keeping the Rays in play, writes Marc Topkin.

Around the league

• Forecasting the trade market is like predicting the weather: Conditions are constantly changing. At the outset of this month, some GMs believed there would be relatively few trades before the July 31 deadline because of the general parity in the standings. But gaps have opened up recently, and some MLB officials now believe there could actually be a fair number of trades before the end of the month. "A lot of pitching is going to change hands," one talent evaluator said.

• If the Red Sox fully alter their focus from this season to developing for 2015, then shortstop Stephen Drew could be a nice fit for the aforementioned Dodgers as a safety net for the oft-injured Hanley Ramirez. The Red Sox would probably need to pay down at least some of the salary owed to Drew -- he signed for $10 million in May, in prorated salary -- and the Dodgers (or any other team) wouldn't have to give up much, if anything, in terms of a prospect.

Whether the Dodgers would be a good fit for Drew is another question entirely. His season was supposed to be about rebuilding his value, but rival evaluators say he hasn't been able to regain his timing since joining the team midseason with no spring training. Drew is hitting just .151 with 30 strikeouts in 101 plate appearances. He needs to improve to better-position himself for free agency, and he only has about 65 games to make it happen.

• On Wednesday's podcast, Keith Law went deep into the Brady Aiken situation, and we agree on this point: The players' association sold the rights of young players down the river. And as Evan Drellich writes, Aiken's NCAA eligibility could be at risk.

• Denny McLain is surprised that Adam Wainwright talked about what he did.

• The grandson of a legend has been promoted to Double-A by the Orioles. In fact, check out Mike Yastrzemski's 2014 numbers: 21 doubles, 12 triples, 11 homers, 17 steals and 27 walks in just 86 games.

Dings and dents

1. Andy Dirks' rehab stint was cut short because of irritation in his surgically repaired back.

2. Evan Gattis will start his injury rehab assignment today.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Ryan Howard is a problem for Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg, Matt Gelb writes.

2. The Red Sox are nearing decision time, as Nick Cafardo writes.

3. The Royals added a veteran pitcher to an already-deep bullpen.

4. A.J. Pierzynski was released.

5. The Angels are nearing a deal with their first-round pick.

NL East

• Travis d'Arnaud has rediscovered his swing, writes Marc Carig.

• Giancarlo Stanton loved his All-Star experience, Manny Navarro writes.

NL Central

• Hayes Gardner writes about the journey of Mark Melancon.

• Expectations surround Gregory Polanco, writes Joe Starkey.

• It's World Series or bust for the Cardinals.

• Reds manager Bryan Price has been discovering new medical terms, Hal McCoy writes.

• The Brewers showed both promise and flaws during the first half.

NL West

• The Diamondbacks are optimistic that they can salvage the second half, writes Nick Piecoro.

• Hunter Pence has Minnesota roots, writes Henry Schulman.

Speaking of Pence, here's one of the most interesting things I saw this week: About half an hour before the start of the Home Run Derby, Pence walked out of the NL clubhouse and planted himself in the best seat possible, right behind the NL team's bench. And with his hands shoved into his hoodie, he did not move from that spot for the next 3 1/2 hours, like someone showing up to a concert early, intent on having a view of everything possible. Other players watched the beginning of the Derby and departed, some left and came back; Pence was omnipresent.

• Todd Frazier would be a natural candidate to be the NL captain in the Derby next year in Cincinnati, and if healthy, Pence would be a nice choice.

AL East

• Daniel Barbarisi polled the Yankees' players about their clubhouse.

• Kevin Gausman is ready to play a key role in the second half.

• The Blue Jays' fate will be determined in the days ahead, writes Steve Simmons.

• Brendan Kennedy lays out what the Blue Jays need to do to make the playoffs.

AL Central

• Brad Ausmus displays the temperament of a veteran manager, writes Tom Gage.

• Sam Mellinger lays out what to expect in the second half from the Royals.

• Chris Sale could be headed to Cooperstown if he can stay healthy, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.

• Max Scherzer says he would have tried to get Derek Jeter out.

AL West

• When the Rangers needed Yu Darvish at his best, he did not respond, writes Gerry Fraley, and Jeff Wilson details how the Rangers went from first to worst.

• Oakland and the Giants must keep an eye on the L.A.-area teams, John Shea writes.

• The Angels are chasing the Athletics, writes JP Hoornstra.

• The AL West is becoming the best division in baseball, writes John McGrath.

Lastly

• A former major league outfielder is on trial.

• The World Series odds have changed.

• The Reds should have the final say on Pete Rose, writes Paul Daugherty.

• High schools in Japan are trying to save pitchers' arms, writes Jim Armstrong.

• The failure to mention Tony Gwynn during the All-Star Game is a topic in San Diego and elsewhere. MLB issued a statement about the lack of an All-Star tribute for Tony Gwynn.

• In the future, the All-Star Game would be a perfect place to roll an Oscars-style video tribute to notables with baseball connections who died in the past year.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Braves can hang in NL East race.

Spoiler

The Washington Nationals are supposed to be running away with the NL East. At least, that was the story at the beginning of the season. Twenty-eight of 31 FanGraphs authors picked the Nationals to win the division, as did 40 of 44 ESPN.com experts. Yet here we are, nearly 100 games into the season, and it's a dead heat. Is there reason to change course and think that the Atlanta Braves are now the favorites?

Well, not according to the Playoff Odds. FanGraphs still gives the Nats 81 percent odds to take home the division crown. That's one way of looking at it. Another way would be to note that only 13 teams still have at least 10 percent odds of winning their division, and the Braves are one of them.

So let's not slam the door on Atlanta just yet.


One reason is the Braves' position players have been more valuable than the Nationals' troupe this summer. The Nationals have hit slightly better (102 wRC+ to 100), but the Braves have been far better on defense. In Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons, the Braves have the best fielding duo in the majors, and it's not particularly close. Tommy La Stella has been another big help, as his slightly above-average defense has been a nice antidote to Dan Uggla's decidedly below-average defense. Throw in B.J. Upton, and the Braves are very strong defensively up the middle, where defense counts most. The Nationals aren't exactly weak there, but they haven't been as good as Atlanta.

Another reason to keep the faith if you're the Braves: Alex Wood is back in the rotation, and he's pitching well. Since he's returned to the starting rotation, he has allowed 10 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings for a tidy 2.87 ERA, and he's posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than 3-to-1. Every starting rotation needs that, and were it not for probably unnecessary hand-wringing over Wood's innings count, he would have remained in the rotation all season. He has joined the clearly dominant Julio Teheran, the cleverly dominant Aaron Harang and the solid Ervin Santana to give the team a pretty nice starting mix. It still doesn't quite measure up to Washington's, but Wood back in the rotation combined with the Braves' bullpen edge make things closer than they appear.

One player who remains an potent question mark in this race is Bryce Harper. On the one hand, getting him back in the lineup allows the Nationals to move Ryan Zimmerman back to third base, which is good, because he was a disaster waiting to happen in the outfield. On the other hand, Harper clearly still isn't 100 percent. He has just four extra-base hits in his first 58 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list on June 30. He has also not reversed his issues with making contact on pitches out of the strike zone, leading to a sharp increase in his strikeouts thus far. It's still early in his season given the two months he missed, but the Nationals need him to put that problem behind in a hurry.

[+] EnlargeMike Minor
Daniel Shirey/USA TODAY Sports
Mike Minor allowed a worrisome six runs to the offensively challenged Chicago Cubs.
It's not all doom and gloom for the Nationals, of course. For starters, the Braves have plenty of hard-to-figure players of their own. Mike Minor is a prominent example. On seven occasions so far this season, Minor has allowed two or fewer runs in a start. But he's also had four starts where he's allowed five or more, including his most recent start, in which he allowed six runs to the offensively challenged Chicago Cubs. The team also doesn't know what it can expect out of Evan Gattis, who should return from the disabled list this week. He should be better offensively than what the Braves have received in his absence -- Gattis has 16 homers in 229 plate appearances this season, compared to none by Gerald Laird and Christian Bethancourt in 164 PAs -- but if his back injury saps some of his power, it will spell trouble for Atlanta's offense.

The Braves also have their out-and-out problem children. They dumped Uggla, sure, but B.J. Upton is still hitting just .214/.278/.339 -- numbers that would have gotten him dropped a long time ago, solid defense or not, if he didn't have a big contract. The Nationals have some similarly poor hitters, but at this point in the season they have all been relegated to their bench. Upton has started 89 of Atlanta's 98 games.

That lack of black holes among starting personnel is the best argument for the Nationals to win the division. Tanner Roark has filled the fifth rotation spot, which was last year's big problem, and when firing on all cylinders, the Nationals clearly have the most talent. The Nationals still remain the favorite to win the division, but it's far from a sure thing now that they've let the Braves hang around this long, who continue to show that they're not to be trifled with. The Nationals are fun to root for because they're the Maverick to the Braves' Ice Man, but if they're not careful, they could crash and burn.

Astros' failure to sign Aiken a total fiasco.

Spoiler

In the story of the Houston Astros' failure to sign two of their top draft picks on Friday, there are neither villains nor victors, only victims left holding empty bags. The first overall pick in the draft, Brady Aiken, declined to sign with the Astros, marking just the third time in the June draft's history that the top player did not sign and the first since 1984.

The greatest victim of all in this fiasco is Jacob Nix, the Astros' fifth-round pick, a high school pitcher from Southern California who agreed to a $1.5 million bonus and passed his physical but was not allowed to sign his contract because of a medical issue involving Aiken. While, practically speaking, everyone involved knew that Nix's deal was contingent on Aiken's, that's not permissible under MLB rules and couldn't be made explicit or put in writing, which will likely be the basis of any grievance filed by Nix against the Astros -- or potential litigation seeking to enforce the verbal contract between the parties.

Aiken himself was also a victim, as much of ill fortune as anything else. Aiken had agreed to a $6.5 million bonus from the Astros, but his physical revealed an irregularity in his elbow that spooked the team and caused a rift between the two sides that no one was able to bridge. Aiken isn't hurt; he is ready and cleared to pitch right away and was up to 97 mph in his last outing of the spring. He doesn't have a torn ligament or require Tommy John surgery. The ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow is, apparently, less than normal -- thinner or shorter, not absent like R.A. Dickey's but not full strength like those of most pitchers. The compressive force between a pitcher's forearm (ulna) and upper-arm bones is at its maximum when his arm is fully cocked, and without the UCL there to prevent further rotation in the elbow, the force on those bones would become excessive. That might be a long-term concern, but we have no examples of pitchers who've had this issue, and Aiken's response to any such questions would have been to point out that he's healthy and throwing 97 miles per hour. When one side says the pitcher is broken and the other says he's not, there's no middle ground, and the current draft system is ill equipped to handle a situation like this, regardless of where the player was drafted.

While the Astros could likely have handled several phases of this process differently, they became victims of the current draft setup (and its unintended consequences, a recurring feature -- not a bug -- in MLB's collective bargaining agreement negotiations) the moment they found something irregular in Aiken's medical. They decided the issue was serious enough that they didn't feel immediately comfortable offering him more than the 40 percent mandated by the CBA to ensure they'd receive a compensatory pick in 2015 if Aiken didn't sign. That discovery, however, changed the calculus on the deal they had in place with Nix: If Aiken didn't agree to sign for a reduced figure, they couldn't sign Nix without surrendering their top two draft picks in 2015 as a penalty for exceeding their bonus pool figure for this year. No player in this entire draft class was worth surrendering a first-round pick and a second-round pick next year. At that point, the Astros were boxed in by rules they likely never imagined would affect them in this draft.

All three parties are now supplicants at the feet of Major League Baseball, the only authority with the power to offer immediate remediation. Aiken and Nix are both likely to file grievances, Aiken claiming the team didn't negotiate in good faith -- although the Astros have said publicly they increased their offer to more than $5 million, which I assume is more than they wanted to pay given what they believe is amiss with his elbow -- and Nix claiming the team breached a verbal contract. I believe the Astros would have upheld their deal with Nix if the penalty wasn't two picks, but the current system doesn't permit them to go over their bonus pool even though their failure to sign their top pick was medically motivated, not financially. MLB could choose to step in here, on one or both cases, permitting the Astros to sign Nix without penalty (if he'll still have them, so to speak), or granting Aiken some form of free agency, as they did with Barrett Loux in a similar situation in 2010. The league's incentive to do so would be to avoid a grievance or, worse, a lawsuit that would make Jarndyce v. Jarndyce look like the "People's Court," inviting unwanted inquiry into the labor restraints placed on players by the draft.

Aiken and Nix are both left with uncertain academic futures, as the NCAA has likely been slavering over reports that cited an agent working with both players and could choose to investigate whether the players are violating the body's (likely unconstitutional, certainly unethical) proscription on players using the services of agents. Whether or not the Astros intended to out the players in this fashion, it's now on record that the team contacted a specific agent during this process. Either player could, and perhaps should, investigate attending junior college for one year and entering the 2015 draft, a step that would also avoid an investigation and possible suspensions if they matriculate at UCLA and Senator Draco of Indianapolis decides to drop the hammer on them.

The hope within the industry is that this debacle renews the push for some sort of pre-draft medical "combine" or any analogous process that puts critical medical information in teams' hands so they don't draft a player with an irregularity in his elbow if they don't want to. Such an endeavor would require pushing the draft back into the beginning of July -- I know one scouting director has suggested doing it at the All-Star break -- so that all amateur players would be done playing their spring schedules and the league would have time to get the results of any blood work done on players. The ripple effect would change the schedules of short-season leagues, summer collegiate leagues, the USA national team and many high school events, but the benefit to getting teams (and advisers) this information before the draft would seem to dwarf the costs in structural changes. No one wants the Brady Aiken situation to repeat itself. With a pre-draft combine, if the Astros didn't like something about Aiken's elbow, they would have passed, and the Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox or Chicago Cubs would have happily taken him, and we wouldn't be having this conversation today.

Padres come out ahead in Street deal.

Spoiler

The Los Angeles Angels were desperate for a closer in the best year they've had since acquiring Albert Pujols and the San Diego Padres had a spare closer lying around whom they didn't need, but the amount of talent heading to San Diego in exchange for Huston Street is baffling.

The Angels seem to have paid for name value or the Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji] tag rather than for production; Street hasn't been worth more than 1.0 fWAR -- a metric that derives a pitcher's WAR using FIP -- in any season since 2009, coincidentally the last time he reached 60 innings in one year.

Street is a good fit for the Angels' park -- a fly-ball pitcher who throws a ton of strikes -- and wasn't just a Petco Park fabrication, but he's also not going to strand every runner he lets reach base indefinitely. There are only a few right-handed relievers in the American League working with a below-average fastball, like Street has, and only one of them, Koji Uehara, is a successful closer. Street is probably worth half a win on paper to the Angels, more than that in the standings because of the high-leverage work he'll get and who he's replacing, but I don't foresee him adding enough W's in the standings to justify all they gave up to get him.

I said on Twitter that I wouldn't have dealt shortstop prospect Jose Rondon straight-up for two-plus months of Street's services, so I certainly don't like the total price for the Angels in this trade -- and love it for San Diego.

Rondon is the best of the four prospects heading to the Padres, a legitimate shortstop with very good actions at the position, great hand-eye coordination and plenty of bat speed. He is never going to hit for home runs but should develop the strength to post a .100 ISO at his peak. With his speed that's going to be sufficient. Major league pitchers would probably eat him alive right now by running velocity in on his hands. He's the eighth-youngest regular in the California League this year and skipped low Class A entirely, so for him to hit .327/.360/.410 with a high contact rate there is promising.

The Padres also acquired Taylor Lindsey, whose best position is in the left-handed batter's box. He has a great swing, one of my favorites in the minors, but during 2013 he narrowed his stance and stopped using his lower half to drive the ball, something San Diego should try to undo and unlock the doubles power that's in the bat. He will stay at second base but isn't likely to ever be average there defensively.

Right-hander Elliot Morris had emerged as the Angels' top pitching prospect outside of rookie ball, reaching 92 to 96 mph with plus sink and an average or better low-80s slider, although it's a high effort delivery with some head violence and he doesn't have an effective pitch for left-handed hitters. He's a future reliever, alongside current reliever R.J. Alvarez, who has given up just two runs this year in 27 innings around a DL trip. He's also a fastball-slider combo pitcher, destroying right-handed batters this season -- facing 56 with only nine reaching base, walking five and giving up four singles -- but it's control rather than command. Both guys could probably pitch in San Diego's pen next year. It will be easy for the Padres to get back far more value in on-field production than they just gave up.

 

[proshares]

Prospect Watch: Toolsy Outfielders.

Spoiler

Ryan Cordell, OF, Texas Rangers (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 22 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A
Line: 252 PA, .336/.402/.543, 8 HR, 23 BB, 41 K
Summary
A strapping outfielder with a full set of tools, Cordell has ripped South Atlantic League pitching apart in his first full season.

Notes
From a statistical/outsider vantage point, Ryan Cordell came out of nowhere and is slowly sneaking up on people. He hit an unremarkable .261/.310/.391 as a junior at Liberty, managed to get picked by the Rangers in the eleventh round despite those poor numbers, and then went out and hit .241/.322/.358 in short-season ball as a 21-year-old. If you wanted, you could note that he stole 47 bases in 55 attempts in 129 games between college and pro ball that year, but otherwise, there was nothing remarkable about him, to the point that the now-22-year-old didn’t break camp with a full-season team in 2014.

Then, suddenly, he showed up in Hickory on May 3 and has gone on to post a .425 wOBA in the past two-and-a-half months. He’s old for the level, but that sort of performance is starting to get his name brought up more frequently in Rangers prospect discussions.

The interesting thing about the slow rise of Cordell’s name recognition in the prospect world is that he’s the sort of guy who immediately stands out on a baseball field, even without doing anything. He’s got the sort of body–6’4″ and not too far from his listed 205 pounds–that just looks good in a baseball uniform, the sort of build that suggests both power and speed. Lo and behold, Cordell has both a .207 ISO and fifteen steals in eighteen attempts this year, so the athleticism his frame suggests is not a mirage.

Further, Cordell is a defensive asset. He’s played all three outfield positions and first base in pro ball, and he looks comfortable in all four spots. He’s athletic enough to handle center field, though he’s probably a 45-grade defender there in the long term. He does, however, project to be a plus defender in a corner with a tick above average arm; he could also be an asset at first base if a roster configuration happened to put him there.

So Cordell clearly is at least average in four tools–power, speed, defense, and arm strength–but there are actually quite a few players out there who have that combination and never do much of anything, because the other tool–the hit tool–is the most important. Thankfully, Cordell isn’t lost in this regard either, as his batting average and 16.5% strikeout rate suggest.

One might be tempted to assign some credit for Cordell’s breakout to the hitting environs of Hickory’s L.P. Frans Stadium, a park that is very friendly to righthanded hitters. However, his .339/.400/.527 road line essentially matches his .333/.405/.559 mark at home, and he’s hit half of his eight bombs away from Hickory. Here’s one I saw in May that was in Hickory but would’ve left just about any park but maybe Fenway:



That’s a heck of a laser. You can see that Cordell’s swing does have some length to it–he employs a slight bat wrap–but he actually takes his cuts on a fairly level plane rather than trying to add a ton of loft to the ball. StatCorner lists him as having just a 28.6% flyball rate on the season, reinforcing that Cordell’s approach revolves more around stinging the ball than launching it. As time passes, he may begin to leverage his natural strength more, but at present, he focuses more on hard contact, which allows his hit tool to play solidly.

In sum, Cordell is an intriguingly athletic player with few weaknesses and production that mirrors his broad skillset, which is sort of a starter-kit Jayson Werth. He has the potential to be an solid everyday outfielder in the bigs if he can maintain a stroke that takes advantage of his natural strength without creating holes. While players that come out of nowhere have their fair share of skeptics, Cordell is quickly making believers out of scouts who cover the Hickory team, and his name could start to be a frequently mentioned one this offseason in list discussions.

***

Dylan Cozens, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 20 Top-15: 12 Top-100: N/A
Line: 409 PA, .249/.308/.421, 13 HR, 32 BB, 104 K

Summary
This behemoth is holding his own in full-season competition.

Notes
A second-round pick in 2012 out of an Arizona high school, Dylan Cozens hasn’t particularly wowed statistically in his young career. He’s a .255/.326/.440 career hitter, including .249/.308/.421 this year as a 20-year-old in his first year of full-season ball. The .180ish Isolated Power marks show some promise and befit a player listed at 6’6″ and 235 pounds, and the overall numbers are decent enough that Cozens isn’t in the bust heap like fellow Lakewood outfielder Larry Greene, but he hasn’t done enough to really raise his profile to anything beyond “big toolsy guy who was drafted in the second round in 2012.”

That might be changing lately, though. Cozens recorded a notorious Golden Sombrero on June 29, after which his season line stood at .224/.283/.390 with nine homers and an 87/24 K/BB in 322 PA (27% K/7.4% BB). In twenty games since, he’s hit .346/.402/.538 with four big flies and a 17/8 K/BB in 87 PA (19.5% K/9.2% BB).

Small sample and selective endpoint caveats are in full effect with that, but Cozens also recently impressed me from a scouting standpoint. I sat in on a July 15th game in which he recorded four hits, including these two big flies:





That’s a nice survey of his power output–he takes a first-pitch fastball away to the opposite field and then hits a breaking pitch to right-center. The second one is especially interesting because the breaking pitch fools Cozens somewhat, getting him out on his front foot, and he basically pokes a ball that still ends up as a no-doubter. That’s impressive raw strength, and Cozens could be an impact power threat down the line. Lakewood isn’t a great place to hit, and in fact, Cozens has stroked the ball at a .314/.365/.514 clip away from home, including putting up 26 of his 35 extra-base hits, further backing up how impressive he is in this area.

The power is Cozens’ best tool right now. Second-most impressive is his arm, which rates as a 55 and allows him to project as a playable right fielder. He also has managed to go 17-for-21 on the bases, though Cozens doesn’t have a ton of raw speed and won’t be an impact basestealer when he fully fills out. He’s error-prone in right field but will flash average range when he takes good routes; some think he ends up at first base, but I give Cozens a solid chance to be at least a fringe-average player in a corner outfield spot.

The hit tool is also a question. Cozens has above-average bat speed and shows the ability to barrel pitches at times, but his swing has considerable length, as his hands have a long way to travel to the baseball. His hitting mechanics are different now than those he showed in my viewings in April:



You can see that Cozens has moved his hands up and tilted the bat toward first base in the more recent clips. That doesn’t subtract any length from his swing, but it may be improving his timing, as he doesn’t have to tip the bat back before he swings with his current mechanics like he did in the April ones. As a large player with a long swing and a big strike zone, Cozens will battle strikeouts all the way up, so his ability to become an impact hitter largely depends on his developing good pitch recognition skills that allow him to compensate for the strikeouts with walks while also keeping him swinging at only pitches he can damage.

Given that he’s 20 and that he’s shown some ability to adjust and improve, Cozens deserves some patience as he tries to get the rest of his game to a level where it can complement his power output. He’s a fairly high-risk player, but he has a carrying tool and flashes enough ability in other areas to lend considerable hope to his prognosis.

***

Adam Engel, OF, Chicago White Sox (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 22 Top-15: 15 Top-100: N/A
Line: 262 PA, .252/.332/.419, 5 HR, 24 BB, 69 K

Summary
One of the most freakishly athletic players in baseball, Engel is held back only by the hit tool.

Notes
Remember when I said that there are a lot of four-tool guys out there whose one below-average tool was hitting? Engel is the poster boy for such a player.

Adam Engel is a near-Mike Trout-level athlete. I know that sounds ridiculously hyperbolic, but I say it with unblinking sincerity. There are more 80-grade runners out there than one might think (largely because a lot of them can’t hit at all and thus never get any press), but very few of them have Trout’s dimensions of 6’2″ and 230 pounds. Engel is 6’1″ and 215, which is about as close as you’re going to get, and he was considered the fastest player in the collegian draft class last year. And boy, is he ever:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-e8ig5x-Ro

My rough timing has Engel home-to-third at about 10.9 seconds on the first video and 11.1 in the second, which are truly elite times–he may be the fastest player in an organization that includes Micah Johnson and Keenyn Walker. The speed translates to plus-plus range in center field, as Engel gets incredible closing speed on balls, and he also (unlike Trout) has an arm that rates as at least a 60 on the 20-80 scale. If Engel hits .240 with a few walks, he’ll be a valuable player thanks to his defense and baserunning as well as his possession of the strength to muscle some balls out of the park:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1egmi8QF7U

But can Engel hit .240 in the big leagues someday? He’s currently just hitting .252 in Low-A at age 22 and has displayed a disturbing tendency to strike out, amassing K’s at a 26.3% clip. Like Cozens, he’s caught fire of late–he was out from May 19 through the end of June, and since coming back on July 1, he’s hit .288/.374/.550 with four of his five home runs and three of his six triples (including the two above). He’s currently riding a nine-game hit streak in which he’s gone 15-for-40 with six extra-base hits, five walks, and seven strikeouts, so maybe something’s clicking. Also like Cozens, he’s made clear alterations to his hitting mechanics–note how much more open he is in the two triples videos (from July) than in the homer video (from April). He’s more crouched now and his hands start way in front of his body before being pulled back during his swing.

Neither set of hitting mechanics is ideal, though, as Engel’s stroke is stiff and gets choppy at times. His approach also needs considerable work. He seems to get overwhelmed when behind in the count and resorts to being a guess hitter, often appearing overmatched by mediocre pitches when he guesses wrong. Since he opened up his stance, he’s become mostly a dead-pull hitter, and while he seems to be making more hard contact with the new setup, his tendency to pull off outside pitches and try to rip everything to left field is going to get exploited when he moves up the chain. Engel’s inability to make consistent hard contact is what pushed him to the nineteenth round in the first place (why else would this grade of athlete slip that far?)–he hit .236 as a junior at Louisville. Engel is a hard worker who seems willing to adjust in the face of issues, but it’s an open question how much he’ll be able to put the ball in play, a key factor for a speed-reliant player. His below-average pitch recognition skills don’t help him when it comes to projecting plate discipline, though he’s managed a 9.2% walk rate and a .332 OBP.

Engel’s the sort of player who will get chances forever because of all the things he does well and his ability to occasionally flash some hitting talent. A popular comparison for him is Trout’s former teammate Peter Bourjos, and that seems pretty reasonable–a guy who would be a star if he could just control the strike zone, but still does everything else so well that he’s valuable even when accounting for the flailing. Engel could be anything from a poor man’s Carlos Gomez, to a frustrating but still valuable player like Bourjos or Cameron Maybin, to an outright tools bust like Greg Golson (or the aforementioned Keenyn Walker, for that matter). It bears watching how well his recent hot streak continues for the season’s final six weeks, as that may be indicative of whether Engel’s ready to start moving toward the big leagues or whether he’s more likely to languish like Walker has.

Chris Young and Dropping the Fastball.

Spoiler

We’re constantly on the lookout for the adjustments pitchers make. We love being able to spot where the game of baseball is changing, and you never know when a pitcher’s next tweak might vault him into another performance level. Felix Hernandez became Felix Hernandez when he picked up a reliable change. Dallas Keuchel became someone worth knowing when he developed a dependable slider. Mariano Rivera didn’t even have a cutter when he was coming up in the minors, and so on and so forth. It’s easier to spot changing pitchers than changing hitters, and when one thing about a pitcher changes, sometimes you can end up with a whole different profile.

Now, often, when we’re looking for changes, we’re comparing against previous years. And that makes some sense — depending on the adjustment, they’re frequently rolled out and tested in spring training. But it’s also possible to spot some midseason adjustments, with perhaps the simplest adjustment being a change to the pitch mix. Let’s take a look at that for 2014, inspired by something I’ve noticed about Chris Young. I’ve had a note to write about this for a week or two. I guess now I’ve waited long enough.

The idea: We’re going to find starting pitchers who have moved away from their fastballs. First, I went to the pitching leaderboards and split for April stats, looking at starters with 20-plus innings. Then, I split for stats from the last 30 days, looking again at starters with 20-plus innings. I cross-checked the data with Brooks Baseball to confirm, and from the sample pool, here are the 10 pitchers who have most reduced their fastball usage, by percentage points:

Chris Young, -21%
Garrett Richards, -17%
Kyle Kendrick, -15%
Jeff Samardzija, -14%
Hiroki Kuroda, -12%
Edwin Jackson, -12%
Alfredo Simon, -12%
Masahiro Tanaka, -10%
Jason Hammel, -10%
Tim Lincecum, -10%
To take Lincecum as an example, in the season’s first month he threw about 51% fastballs. Over the season’s most recent month, he’s thrown about 41% fastballs. So, that’s a drop of about 10 percentage points, or less than half of Chris Young’s fastball drop. We’ll get into more detail on Young in a minute, but here’s a list of the pitches that have most picked up the slack for each guy:

Chris Young, slider
Garrett Richards, slider
Kyle Kendrick, cutter
Jeff Samardzija, splitter
Hiroki Kuroda, slider
Edwin Jackson, changeup
Alfredo Simon, curveball and splitter (fewer cutters)
Masahiro Tanaka, slider
Jason Hammel, slider
Tim Lincecum, changeup
There’s no general trend of greater success. Comparing the last month to the first month, just four of 10 guys have posted lower ERAs. Just four have posted lower FIPs, and five have posted lower xFIPs. So the group, as a whole, hasn’t taken a step forward — but then there are the individual points of interest. Tanaka, more recently, pitched far worse. But he might’ve also been pitching hurt. Samardzija has gotten back to a more familiar splitter rate, and he’s achieved some more familiar peripherals.

Richards is an interesting player to note here. In April, three-quarters of his pitches were fastballs. Each successive month, he’s decreased his fastball rate and increased his slider rate; each successive month, he’s improved his K% – BB%. A little bit of that works in the other direction. In strikeout counts, Richards is likely to throw more sliders. But having a better slider is a big part of Richards’ emergence, and he’s finally pitching like the ace observers pictured when they saw his velocity.

And then there’s Young. When Young resurfaced with the Mariners, he was extremely fastball-heavy. This didn’t surprise, because Young has always been extremely fastball-heavy. In April, he threw 77% fastballs, right around his career mark of 73%. But then, over the past month, Young has thrown just 56% fastballs. He started against the Angels on Sunday and threw 51 sliders. As far as PITCHf/x knows, that was a career high by 15. In terms of slider rate, Sunday’s 52% clobbered Young’s previous known high of 41%. Chris Young is the most interesting player on this list, because he’s an established veteran doing something he’s never really done before.

Young is still an extreme fly-ball pitcher. But, in the season’s first month, he had more walks than strikeouts. Over his past seven turns, he has six walks and 35 strikeouts. When Young began the season with an acceptable ERA and dreadful peripherals, the suspicion was the ERA would regress. Instead it’s like he’s gone the other direction, having massively lowered his xFIP.

It’s probably useful to break this down by handedness. Via Brooks, here’s Young against right-handed hitters, with a monthly x-axis:

And here’s Young against left-handed hitters, with a monthly x-axis:

Against righties, Young’s fastball has dropped to levels never before seen from him, with the slider making up all the difference. He’s actually thrown more sliders than fastballs to righties since the beginning of June. Against lefties, there’s been a slight increase in slider rate, but there’s been a sharper increase in changeup rate, to help offset the fastball reduction. The changeup hasn’t often been a weapon for Young before. In effect, Young is pitching like a righty specialist against righties. Against lefties, he’s looking like a bona fide three-pitch pitcher.

Making it all the more interesting is Young defended his fastball-heavy approach in conversing with Eno just this May. Young was right in identifying weak spots up in and around the zone, and he was right that a fastball can function as multiple different pitches — depending on where it’s put. Yet after defending his unique blend of stuff and approach, Young has changed the way he pitches. He’s thrown fewer elevated fastballs and has thrown more secondary stuff over the outer half. We’ll only see from here for how long this sustains, but I suppose a player sharp enough to talk to Eno like Young did is a player sharp enough to figure out when a change might be helpful. A good goal is to stay one step ahead of the scouting report, and no scouting report in the world cautions hitters against Chris Young’s secondary stuff.

There’s a thought out there that throwing sliders is bad for the arm. Few pitchers have injury histories comparable to Young’s. So maybe, on the surface, this seems like a bad idea. But it’s not like staying with fastballs has kept Young healthy in the past. And when Young underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, doctors told him they figured they’d address the root cause of his arm problems, so maybe Young’s just testing that to the extreme. One way or another, it’s 2014 and Chris Young is helping a contending team’s rotation. You have to give Young that much credit.

The Complicated Matter of Jon Lester’s Status.

Spoiler

The Red Sox, like the Rays, aren’t quite sure whether it’s time to sell. Both of them are tied for fourth, or last, in the AL East, at 7.5 games back. But then they’ve won a combined nine games in a row, and our projections have them as the best teams in the division. Still, their playoff odds are low enough that this might be too little, too late. If the Red Sox elect to sell, they have a handful of veteran role players that could find temporary homes with contenders. But no matter what the Sox choose, it appears they’ll be keeping Jon Lester. The free-agent-to-be doesn’t seem to be available on the market.

The idea is that the Sox would like to extend him. Lester has said before that he’d be willing to take something of a hometown discount, even if that urge is diminished with every passing day. Obviously, the two sides have yet to reach an agreement, despite a midseason re-opening of talks, and obviously, the Red Sox’s reported offer around spring training was too low, but there’s still a pretty good chance of a long-term marriage, here. Both Lester and the Sox ultimately want the same thing. They just need to agree on what Jon Lester is.

The coming free-agent class features three starting-pitcher names bigger than the rest. James Shields has struggled a little bit, but as is he’s still in line for a significant payday. Max Scherzer has been the same as he was last year, with just a little bit less success with the things a pitcher can’t really control too much. And Jon Lester has stepped things up, achieving the statistical level of ace-hood that he previously achieved between 2009 – 2010. His strikeouts have gone north, his walks have gone south, and his ERA is nearly half what it was in 2012.

Lester, without question, has raised his stock since the start of the season. And he finished 2013 strong, as well, such that, over the past calendar year, Lester’s been one of the very best arms in the game. He’s been at least as good as Scherzer, and most probably better.

Over that past year, 139 different starters have thrown at least 100 innings. Lester’s ranks in three stats:

ERA-: 4th (tied)
FIP-: 4th (tied)
xFIP-: 23rd (tied)
Scherzer’s ranks in the same stats:

ERA-: 23rd (tied)
FIP-: 12th (tied)
xFIP-: 26th (tied)
Over a year, by FIP, Lester’s been worse only than Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, and Felix Hernandez, which is to say he’s been spectacular. There’s a reason people are talking about Cole Hamels money, and not just because Hamels was the last guy to sign a long-term extension in these kinds of circumstances. Hamels signed a six-year extension in July 2012, and over the previous three seasons, he started 101 games, posting an 87 FIP-. Over the past three seasons, Lester has started 100 games, posting an 85 FIP-. And right now his numbers are better than ever.

Hamels signed for six years and $144 million. Over the two years since, there’s been some more inflation within the industry. On the other hand, Lester has already mentioned the hometown-discount thing, and also, Hamels was signed for ages 29 – 34. Lester, next year, will be 31, so that’s another factor. Lester might not be looking for Hamels money, but one could see a similar rate over four or five years.

There’s just this thing, about Jon Lester’s numbers. It’s also a thing about Jon Lester’s catchers, and it’s something I wrote about a month and a half ago.

There’s no mistaking that Lester has significantly improved his peripherals. There’s no clear significant change in his repertoire. His velocities have stayed consistent. His zone rate is in the same range as ever. His contact rate has barely gone down. His rate of swings at balls has barely moved. His rate of swings at strikes has barely moved. Look elsewhere on the Jon Lester player page, and you don’t think you’re looking at a guy who’s dropped his FIP- and xFIP- by about 20 points. And something we’ve come to understand about fielding-independent pitching statistics is they’re not totally fielding-independent.

Baseball Prospectus tracks pitch-framing data broken down by battery. They show runs added or subtracted by call, and they show runs added or subtracted by count, the latter leaning upon the idea that extra strikes are differently valuable in different situations. For example, according to the former calculation, a first-pitch strike counts the same as, say, a 2-and-2 strike. According to the latter calculation, the 2-and-2 strike is more valuable, because it’s a strikeout. Anyhow, what you see is Jon Lester second on the list, with David Ross, in framing runs by count. By their calculations, Ross’ framing for Lester this year has been worth more than ten runs already.

Only two batteries are in the double digits; only three are north of +5.8 runs. Lester and Ross have worked very well together, and now let’s look at a table of Lester data stretching back to 2008. These are his combined framing runs, by count, by year.

Year Framing Runs Starts
2008 -1.8 33
2009 -4.2 32
2010 6.1 32
2011 5.2 31
2012 4.6 33
2013 2.1 33
2014 10.4 20
Already, Lester’s achieved a career-best, and he’s on pace for about +16 or so. The previous four years, Lester finished above average, but never north of +6 runs. Depending on how much stock you put in the numbers, for Lester this year, framing could come out as having been worth more than a full win or two.

And that doesn’t show up outside of one’s FIP. That’s a part of the FIP, as framing influences strikeouts and walks. A big part of good framing is good command, because it’s hard to frame a pitch thrown somewhere other than where it’s expected, but the bigger message is this: presuming the Red Sox know what’s what with regard to contemporary player analysis, the team might have a better understanding of Ross’ value than Lester. Lester’s side might talk about the wins and the strikeouts and the ERA, but the Red Sox probably get that that isn’t all about Jon Lester himself.

Ditch the specific numbers for a moment. Just go with the concept. Lester wants to get paid, and he knows about his own numbers. The Red Sox would like to pay him, but they could also figure a part of his great numbers is a function of the guy who’s been catching most of the pitches. So then you could have a gap in the player evaluation, and it’s hard enough to reach an agreement when a team and a player agree on what the player is. Everyone agrees that Jon Lester is one of the better starters in baseball, but the Sox might be unwilling to pay Lester for something in part accomplished by somebody else.

By no means is my point that Jon Lester isn’t good. By no means is my point that Jon Lester owes a lot of his statistical success to David Ross. This is a smaller factor, but it’s a bigger factor than it usually is, and it could be a big part of the reason why the sides remain separated. By the numbers, it seems like Ross has been a significant help for Lester on the year, but David Ross isn’t a part of the Jon Lester free-agent package. The Red Sox need to evaluate Lester for Lester, and that isn’t as easy to do as it might seem.

WHY IS TODD FRAZIER HAVING SUCH A GOOD YEAR?

Spoiler

With a guy like Billy Hamilton on first base, you're likely to get a fastball. That's a good thing for Todd Frazier, who has traditionally feasted on fastballs. But does Billy Hamilton also make for a distraction at first base? Someone taking off for second base in your peripheral vision doesn't make for great concentration at least.

That distractive property of a speedster at first base was the possible explanation that Ben Lindbergh had for the decreased production batters saw when they were at the plate and an aggressive runner was on first.

But ask Frazier about it and he says he's "locked in" at the plate. "When they throw over three or four times, it's not a distraction, it makes me feel a little better knowing they're worried about him and not me," the Reds third baseman said. "He understands what he's doing and I understand what I'm doing."

There's a difference between the runner just being at first base and taking off, though. Both Joey Votto and Todd Frazier agreed that they always take when Hamilton takes off from first. Of the 34 times that Hamilton has taken off for a new base with one of those two at the plate, the batter has swung six times. Considering that Votto's swung at nearly 40% of the pitches he's seen over that time frame, and Frazier's swung at nearly 50%, a 17.6% swing rate probably qualifies as 'never swinging.'

So these two batters generally take when Hamilton is running, and only 12 of the 28 times they took did that pitch turn into a strike. Only six times was that pitch strike two, and only once did the pitch strike the batter out. So it's not as if Hamilton's actual stolen bases have put Votto and Frazier in bad positions when seen as a whole.

And Hamilton has given them the opportunity to see more fastballs. "There's a predictable fastball that I'm going to get," said Votto. The Reds' first baseman was seeing more fastballs than he'd ever seen this year before he hit the disabled list (60.5% this year, 56.6% career).

Frazier has only seen a slight uptick (56.2% this year, 56.0% last year), but he likes fastballs -- "That's what I hit and that's why I like to hit" he said of the pitch. It at least seems possible some of his breakout this year has been fueled by fastballs with Hamilton on base.

The two can, indeed, owe some of their added fastballs to Hamilton. When Hamilton is on base in front of them, they've seen a fastball 57% of the time. For those two hitters, that's above their career fastball percentages. But it's not actually a ton more fastballs than the rest of the league would see. The average National League starter throws a fastball... 57.6% of the time.

Still, for our two Reds hitters, they're seeing more fastballs, which is good, right? Even if you take out the instances where Hamilton is running and they're not swinging, they're getting 55% fastballs this year.

But what if they're taking a little more often in case Hamilton wants to go. Maybe they see a flinch and think he is going? Listen to Frazier and you hear that, yes, perhaps they're taking a bit more even when Hamilton is not stealing: "If I need to take a couple pitches, get to two strikes, I'm not afraid to hit with two strikes."

With Billy Hamilton on first or second (and not engaged in stealing a base), Frazier has swung at 50.6% of the balls in he's seen. He's swung at 52.6% of the balls he's seen this year in general. If he'd swung three more times with Hamilton in a position to steal, these numbers would be exactly the same.

What happens when Frazier does swing at a pitch with Hamilton on base? Could some of the added bonus of having a speedster on base in front of him actually come from balls in play? Infield defenders have to stay close to bags to try to keep Hamilton from stealing, is that opening holes for Frazier?

Frazier has swung 87 times with Billy Hamilton in stealing position since the young man was called up last year. He's made contact 73.8% of the time, which is worse than his yearly rate (75.2%). Of the balls he's put into play, 37.5% have found grass. 32.7% of his balls in play this year have been hits in general. Still, the difference between these two numbers is two hits.

Todd Frazier is having a great year. He probably owes a few hits and a few fastballs to Billy Hamilton. But maybe it's really more about other factors. He credits hitting coach Don Long with "helping me understand my swing," making a few tweaks and finding a good routine.

He's been working on his pitch selection, that's "always big" for the Reds' third baseman. You can see that he's swinging less at low pitches off the plate. Look at his swing heat map for 2013 on the top and 2014 on the bottom:

It's nice to have Billy Hamilton on base in front of you, but it's not the main driver of Todd Frazier's good year. That would be Todd Frazier himself.

The Completely Rebuilt, Win-Now Angels Bullpen.

Spoiler

Over the weekend, the Angels picked up Huston Street from San Diego, and we’ll get to that in a second. This isn’t just about the trade, though. It’s about the relief group that Street is joining. On March 30, the Angels announced their Opening Day roster, with a seven-man bullpen that looked like this:

R — Ernesto Frieri
R — Kevin Jepsen
R — Michael Kohn
L — Nick Maronde
R — Fernando Salas
R — Matt Shoemaker
R — Joe Smith
Today, at least for the moment, they have an eight-man bullpen, and it looks like this:

R — Jason Grilli
R — Kevin Jepsen
R — Mike Morin
R — Cory Rasmus
R — Fernando Salas
R — Joe Smith
R — Huston Street
L – Joe Thatcher
Frieri was awful, and now he’s in Pittsburgh. Kohn couldn’t find the plate, and now he’s in Triple-A. Maronde couldn’t do much of anything, and now he’s with Cleveland. Shoemaker is in the rotation, and while he may return when C.J. Wilson comes off the disabled list, it may be Hector Santiago instead. Since Salas missed almost a month with a sore shoulder, that makes Jepsen and Smith the only two Angels relievers to be active and on the team all season long. In between, the Angels have had 25 different relievers, from Jarrett Grube and Cam Bedrosian to Drew Rucinski and Josh Wall, easily the most different relievers any team has had this year, and within shouting distance of the American League record of 29, set by the 2012 Blue Jays. (They probably aren’t touching the all-time record of 33, set by the 2002 Padres of Eric Cyr, Doug Nickle and Brian Tollberg, unless things go terribly wrong.)

All of which means that full-season stats for the Angels bullpen aren’t particularly useful, because they’re including numbers from guys who are long gone or buried in the minors. That’s good for the Angels, of course, because those full-season numbers are ugly. By WAR, 25th. ERA, 21st. FIP, 23rd. xFIP, 23rd. Obviously, that’s not the kind of group you want when you think you have a real shot at the playoffs.

So GM Jerry Dipoto went about changing that, starting in late June when failed closer Frieri went to Pittsburgh for failed closer Grilli, continuing in early July when Thatcher (and backup outfielder Tony Campana) arrived from Arizona for minor leaguers Zach Borenstein and Joey Krehbiel, and continuing on Saturday when Street and minor leaguer Trevor Gott came to town for prospects R.J. Alvarez, Taylor Lindsey, Elliot Morris and Jose Rondon.

Whether or not Grilli rediscovers his Pittsburgh magic — he’s off to a good start in his first 10 games as an Angel, and more importantly, he isn’t Frieri — it’s clear that this is a much improved group from the one that started the season. Street is having the best season of his life, getting more strikeouts and grounders; rookie Morin and his outstanding change has been a surprise performer; Thatcher has a 17/1 K/BB against fellow lefties this year. Added to mainstays Smith and Jepsen, and suddenly the Angels have a reasonably effective quintet in their bullpen. Though Street has only appeared once so far, the new Angels bullpen has been miles better over the last month, even with obvious small sample size caveats. It’s not the only reason they’ve won 27 of their last 37; it’s not unrelated, either. What was a clear weakness is now, if not a strength, at least not a glaring issue, as the newcomers have pushed incumbents either to lower-leverage roles or off the roster entirely.

Street can’t be guaranteed to continue like he has been, of course — dig that 1.06 ERA against a 2.93 xFIP, .200 BABIP and 100% LOB — and so there’s the question of whether the Angels “overpaid” for him. The answer is yeah, probably, they did. There’s only so much impact a single one-inning reliever who isn’t quite on the Aroldis Chapman / Craig Kimbrel level can have on a few months of a season. It’s likely that the quartet the Padres received will give San Diego more value over their years of team control than Street will over his 1.5 years in Anaheim (assuming the Angels pick up Street’s $7m 2015 option, which seems like a total no-brainer).

Entering the season, Lindsey and Alvarez were two of the Angels’ top four prospects from Baseball America; Rondon, one of the youngest players in Single-A, wasn’t, but certainly would have been this year, and this trio very possibly would have been the team’s top three. This wasn’t a great organization before, and now it’s desolate. If Street even adds one win above replacement to the Angels this season, it will be a lot — again, not because he’s not useful, but because there’s a limit to what a one-inning pitcher can provide. To give up some real talent for that is not an insignificant price.

Of course, it’s there where we need to remember that an individual team’s “top prospect list” is all but useless when evaluating a deal, because even though Lindsey was the “No. 1 prospect in the Angels system,” he was also a borderline top-100 player. In a system like that of the Cubs, Lindsey may have cracked the top 10; that he was the best player in a bad system doesn’t make him a better player than he was. Did the Angels hurt an already mediocre system for Street? Without question. Did they give up anyone they’ll ever really miss? That part is far less certain.

For most teams, this doesn’t make a lot of sense. But the Angels aren’t most teams, and they’re in a position where every win is just so, so valuable. Mike Trout still isn’t 23 for another month, but Jered Weaver, Albert Pujols, Wilson and Josh Hamilton aren’t getting younger. Every year with that quartet that isn’t a successful one is an expensive misfire; Erick Aybar, Chris Iannetta, David Freese and Howie Kendrick are all also at least 30. Despite all the press the Athletics have received for their outstanding season, the Angels are only a game out in the loss column and still have 10 more head-to-head games against Oakland. They’re both basically locks to make the playoffs — these two teams have the most wins in baseball — but in the world of two wild cards, winning the division carries with it an incredible amount of value. No one wants to be the team in the one-game playoff, welcoming the Mariners or Orioles or Indians into town, knowing that a one-game playoff is essentially a coin flip, and that even if they advance, they may have had to burn one of their better starting pitchers to do it. If you’re looking for a win-now situation, especially if you think the Rangers disaster is a one-year thing and that the Astros are coming, this is it.

So yeah, maybe cashing in these prospects for what is a relatively small gain doesn’t seem worth it. Maybe Rondon and Lindsey become the San Diego middle infield of the future, providing years of value, while Alvarez is closing games off. We won’t know the answer to that for many years. What we do know is that none of these players are looked upon like they’re Addison Russell or Byron Buxton or Kris Bryant, and if Street and the rest of the new Angels bullpen helps get them past the A’s and into a home game to start ALDS without needing to win the wild card playoff, it’s certain that nobody in Anaheim will be regretting it.

It’s Time for the Royals to Trade James Shields.

Spoiler

On June 17, the Royals took sole possession of first place in the American League Central, as they stood a half game up on Detroit in the division race. Since that date, the Royals have gone 10-17, while the Tigers have gone 18-10, and Kansas City now finds themselves in third place, seven games behind the Tigers and a game and a half behind the Indians. They’ve even fallen to sixth in the AL Wild Race, which isn’t exactly overflowing with dominant teams at the moment.

As things stand today, our Playoff Odds model gives the Royals a 2.6% chance of winning the division and a 7.9% chance of winning a spot in the Wild Card game. A Wild Card game that would almost certainly be on the road, against either the A’s or the Angels, inarguably the two best teams in baseball to this point of the season.

In other words, even if they manage to sneak past Cleveland, New York, Toronto, and Seattle — and hold off the charging Red Sox and Rays — their reward would be a road game against a significantly better team. Anything can happen in one game, of course, but when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold at the deadline, the realistic upside has to be evaluated, and the Royals best case case scenario is still a probable loss in Game 163.

However, there’s a lot of upside in being the team selling a fall-back plan to the teams who lose out in the David Price sweepstakes. According to most reports, the Mariners, Dodgers, and Cardinals are the most interested teams in Price, and at least two of them are going to be disappointed that they didn’t get him. And when they look around for alternatives, they’re going to find… A.J. Burnett? Bartolo Colon? John Danks?

The market is ripe for the Royals to step in and fill the void with an available starter who is a legitimate upgrade for most contenders. The final two months of Shields’ contract will be far more valuable to another team than they will be to Kansas City.

Shields projects for about +1.4 WAR over the rest of the season, which is not quite Price-like but is far ahead of guys like Colon or Burnett. Because Jeff ran the numbers on a Price trade last week, we can crib off his data and estimate that acquiring Shields would lead to something like a 10% boost in playoff odds for nearly 10 teams. Even if we cross out the Indians, Yankees, and either the Mariners or Cardinals — assuming one of the two pays the David Price tax — then there’s still a half dozen teams who could significantly benefit from having Shields in their rotation for the final two months, plus a much more likely playoff series.

Maybe 10% doesn’t sound like a lot, but for many of these teams, the addition could easily end up being the difference between playing in the Wild Card game and getting a pass through to the division series. For a team like the Orioles or Blue Jays, they have a real chance to host a couple of postseason games, and reap the the revenues that come along with a playoff berth. Some estimates have the revenue gains associated with a postseason run at between $20 and $70 million, depending on how deep a team goes and how much the playoff push can invigorate a fan base.

For instance, the Pirates are up an average of 3,000 fans per game this year compared to last year. Even as TV money takes a larger role in a team’s financial picture, an extra 250,000 tickets sold at an average price of $40 apiece is $10 million in extra revenues. Sure, a good chunk of those fans would have still bought tickets this year even if the Pirates hadn’t made the division series last year, but there’s no question that their 2013 playoff run led directly to a revenue boost in 2014.

There’s a reason the A’s traded one of the game’s very best prospects for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. For mid-market teams who can’t count on getting to the postseason every year, it is imperative to take advantage of opportunities when they come. Those are the very same teams, however, that probably can’t afford to trade the farm for David Price, and are not going to see a big enough improvement to justify giving up real prospects for the back-end starters other teams are selling.

Even with Shields having a mediocre first half, he would fill a significant void in the market and give the Royals a legitimate chance to recoup a lot of the talent they gave up in acquiring Shields in the first place. They’re not going to get Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi back, but they might land a couple of good prospects that could turn into good players sooner than later.

The odds of the Royals re-signing Shields this winter are slim. Realistically, given their payroll, they shouldn’t even really be that interested in keeping him for his decline years. And other teams will pay more in value than the draft pick they’d get next summer by making him a qualifying offer and letting him leave via free agency.

It might be a tough pill for the Royals to swallow, given where they were just a month ago, but the right move for the Royals franchise is to put Shields on the market and play for 2015.

Prospect Watch: Cubs, Marlins Go Fishing for Pitching.

Spoiler

Pierce Johnson, RHP, Chicago Cubs (Profile)
Level: Class-A/Double-A Age: 23 Top-15: 6th Top-100: 77th
Line: 54.1 IP, 35-46 BB-K, 32 H, 3.48 ERA

The Chicago Cubs organization has one of the stronger minor league systems in baseball — but that’s on the strength of its hitting prospects.

Prior to the season, the Cubs Top 10 Prospects list featured just three pitchers — and Pierce Johnson was the highest-ranked arm at No. 6, one slot ahead of fellow hurler C.J. Edwards who has dealt with an injury for much of the year. A former first round draft pick, Johnson was selected 43rd overall in 2012 out of Missouri State University.

The 23-year-old hurler has had a modest pro career to date. His 2013 season was split between two A-ball affiliates where he produced solid — but hardly eye-popping — numbers, especially given his pedigree. Johnson opened the 2014 season on the disabled list before receiving his assignment to the Double-A level. He’s been hampered by lower leg injuries all season long.

He’s certainly missed bats — just 28 hits in 43.1 innings — but Johnson has struggled with his control and has walked an alarming 32 batters (a walk rate of 6.65 BB/9). The injuries — including one in late May to his left leg — could be part of the reason for his uncharacteristically high walk rate. His control has improved only marginally since his return from the most recent trip to the DL: Johnson has walked six batters in his last two starts (9.1 innings).

Johnson has also struggled to command his offerings — including his fastball. He’s been constantly falling behind in the count, which has prevented him from setting up his breaking balls; because hitters know he’s not throwing his pitches for strikes, they have been sitting back and waiting for his fastball, an offering which is solid but hardly overpowering.

* * *
Justin Nicolino, LHP, Miami Marlins (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 22 Top-15: 3rd Top-100: 63rd
Line: 118.1 IP, 15-55 BB-K, 112 H, 2.97 ERA

When the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins paired up for their blockbuster trade towards the end of 2012, Nicolino was the headlining prospect that headed south to Florida. Since that time, though, his prospect valuation has hit a speed bump or two.

The former second round draft pick has watched lesser-known trade mate Anthony DeSclafani pass him on the depth chart (and reach The Show) while he pitched at Double-A for much of the past two seasons. Nicolino, 22, has displayed outstanding control throughout his career as a baby fish (including a 1.14 BB/9 rate in 2014) but he’s struggled to miss bats. Since coming over to Miami, his strikeout rate has yet to surpass 6.15 K/9 and it currently sits at just 4.18 in ’14. The southpaw with a killer changeup has been hurt by a modest breaking ball and the lack of a true put-away pitch.

Once mentioned in the same breath as fellow Jays pitching prospects Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard (now with the Mets), Nicolino is now likely on the outside looking in at the Top 100 prospects list. Although he will almost certainly pitch in the big leagues, his future role looks to be that of a No. 4 starter.

The outcome of the 2012 trade now leaks somewhat bleak for Miami. Big league starter Henderson Alvarez has been solid despite an inability to miss bats, which limits his ceiling. Among the prospects, DeSclafani is exceeding expectations (and might now possess the ceiling of a back-end starter) but the others — like Nicolino — have stumbled. Outfielder Jake Marisnick has yet to prove he can hit. The same can be said for shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. Known for his glove, his defense has not been strong enough to overshadow his .277 on-base percentage or 71 wRC+ in the big leagues.

The Opposite Trends of Starlin Castro and Allen Craig.

Spoiler

Not too long ago, I observed that Allen Craig was getting pitched differently. He was getting pitched differently because he was hitting differently, in that he hasn’t been hitting for pull power. So pitchers have fed him more fastballs, and more fastballs inside, daring him to turn on something. Before that, I observed that Robinson Cano was also missing his pull power, although he compensated better than Craig has. And somewhere along the line, I wrote something similar about Evan Longoria, so I guess I realize I’m interested in certain batted-ball tendencies. And that realization made me want to look at the bigger picture.

Some hitters are lethal when they’re able to pull the ball. Other guys are quite good at going the other way. Brian Dozier is a total pull hitter, who can’t do crap the other way. Ryan Howard, meanwhile, can’t do crap to his pull side, preferring the opposite field. Individual tendencies are individual tendencies, but things get interesting when you see those tendencies change. Changes can be indicative of changes to swing or ability.

I’m interested in batted balls to the pull side and batted balls to the opposite field. But for these purposes I’m not interested in groundballs, because I’m thinking about balls in play that could go for power. Using the FanGraphs leaderboards, I recovered fly balls and line drives that were pulled, hit to center, and hit the other way. I combined the two stats into one — air balls — and then I calculated the rates to each field. For example, this year, Yoenis Cespedes has pulled 34% of his air balls. Kyle Seager has hit 28% of his air balls the other way.

Then, for each hitter, I simply calculated Pull Air% – Opposite Air%, which you can accept if you can accept K% – BB%. Then I went through all the same process for 2013, then I compared the data for batters with at least 100 air balls in each of the last two seasons. There are 164 such batters, and the stat appears to be reasonably sustainable:

There’s a good relationship there, which isn’t surprising, because batted-ball distributions are a part of a hitter’s identity. If you have a guy who pulls a good amount of his air balls, he’s probably going to keep on pulling a good amount of his air balls, unless something changes. And it’s those changes in which I’m most interested.

In case you’re curious, that isolated dot toward the bottom left: Joe Mauer. A year ago, he pulled 11% of his air balls, and he hit 52% of his air balls the other way, for a difference of -41%. This year, he’s pulled 8% of his air balls, and he’s hit 65% of his air balls the other way, for a difference of -57%. He had the league’s lowest difference in 2013, and he has the league’s lowest difference in 2014, and look no further for an explanation of why Joe Mauer isn’t hitting for power. He’s hitting the ball in the air the other way even more often, and he’s not doing so with the authority he did in 2009. Something with Joe Mauer is clearly awry.

Now, the ultimate point of this is the comparison between 2013 and 2014. For each year, I already had the difference between pulled air balls and air balls the other way. Then, between years, I calculated the difference between those differences. A positive result would belong to a hitter who’s pulled the ball in the air more often in 2014. A negative result would belong to a hitter who’s pulled the ball in the air less often.

Here now are the ten biggest positive differences:

Starlin Castro, +27%
Michael Brantley, +25%
Brandon Moss, +22%
Anthony Rizzo, +22%
Jay Bruce, +20%
Jose Altuve, +19%
Troy Tulowitzki, +17%
Alexei Ramirez, +17%
Devin Mesoraco, +17%
Salvador Perez, +17%
Castro, a year ago, pulled 15% of his air balls, and hit 51% the other way, for a (rounded) difference of -35%. Castro, this year, has pulled 26% of his air balls, and hit 35% the other way, for a difference of -9%. So the (rounded) difference between those differences is +27%, yielding the number above. Castro has drastically reduced his air balls to the opposite field, and he’s turned many of those into pulled flies and liners.

It reads like a list of high achievers. There’s an MVP candidate in there, and some guys having breakthrough campaigns. In all, a year ago, these guys hit .269/.323/.420, with a .151 ISO and a 102 wRC+. This year, they’ve hit .292/.357/.481, with a .189 ISO and a 131 wRC+. The only player who hasn’t gotten better is Bruce, and he’s had some injury issues. All these guys have been able to pull the ball in the air more often, and that’s closely related to performing better at the plate.

Now the other side. Here are the ten biggest negative differences:

Allen Craig, -35%
Domonic Brown, -32%
Mark Reynolds, -27%
Dioner Navarro, -26%
Angel Pagan, -25%
Andrelton Simmons, -25%
Marcell Ozuna, -24%
Justin Smoak, -23%
Andre Ethier, -20%
Robinson Cano, -19%
Right away, you can see it’s not a killer. And I should mention that right behind Cano is Andrew McCutchen, at -18%. But the list is topped by a couple crushing disappointments, and, a year ago, these guys hit .272/.339/.441, with a .169 ISO and a 116 wRC+. This year, they’ve hit .260/.316/.388, with a .128 ISO and a 96 wRC+. By and large, it’s a worse unit, because it’s a hell of a lot more difficult to sting the ball with authority the other way.

Pagan has been fine, even though his ISO has dropped. Cano has thus far traded extra-base hits for extra singles. Ozuna’s annihilated the pulled balls he has hit. McCutchen’s running a career-best opposite-field wRC+. It’s possible to survive this trade-off, especially if you have MVP-level natural ability, but most things in baseball should be considered on a case-by-case basis, and in most cases, a trade-off like this is a bad thing. With Craig, this seems indicative of something wrong with his swing. Same goes for Brown. A guy like Smoak doesn’t have the power to succeed by pulling the ball less often. You can never be sure what’s a slowing bat and what’s just poor timing or a mechanical hitch, but if a player is hitting the ball in the air the other way more often, at the expense of pulled balls, it seems like it should be worrisome unless it’s part of an intentional plan.

The Cubs have been pleased with Starlin Castro’s offensive development, and as it happens, this year he’s pulling the ball in the air a lot more often. The Cardinals have been badly hurt by Allen Craig’s offensive decline, and this year he’s pulling the ball in the air a lot less often. Andrew McCutchen is also pulling the ball in the air a lot less often, but he’s still thriving because he’s one of the best players in baseball and, like Robinson Cano, he seems able to make the best of what the pitchers will provide. There aren’t many statistical rules in baseball that apply to everybody the same across the board, but exceptions tend to be few, and limited to the truly exceptional.

2014 Trade Value: The Top 10.

Spoiler

Welcome to the final section of this year’s Trade Value series, the top 10. If you haven’t already, read the intro and get yourself acquainted with what question this is trying to answer, as well as an incomplete list of guys who missed the cut for one reason or another. You can see all the posts in the series here.

A few quick notes on the columns listed for each player. After the normal biographical information, I’ve listed Projected WAR, which is essentially a combination of ZIPS and Steamer’s current rest-of-season forecasts extrapolated out to a full-season’s worth of playing time. For non-catcher position players, this is 600 plate appearances; catchers are extrapolated to 450 PAs. For pitchers, this is extrapolated to 200 innings. It is not their 2014 WAR, or their last calendar year WAR; it is a rough estimate of what we might expect them to do over a full-season, based on the information we have now.

For contract status, we have two pieces of information. “Controlled Through” includes all years before a player accumulates enough time to be eligible for free agency, all guaranteed years of a contract already signed, and any years covered by team options that could be exercised in the future. Player options and mutual options are not included, as the assumption is that players of this caliber will generally opt-out of their current contracts if given the chance.

The “Contract Dollars” column includes the base salaries of each player in the controlled years going forward, starting from 2015 — the 40% of 2014 salary remaining is not included in the calculation — including the value of team options, since we’re assuming that they will be picked up. In many cases, players have incentives for various accomplishments that affect the base salaries, but those are not accounted for here, simply because of the tedious work of calculating all those incentive prices and the fact that $100,000 for an All-Star appearance or $500,000 for an MVP-finish there aren’t going to change the overall calculations. This column is not an exact representation of their future earnings, but should be close enough for our purposes.

For players who are under team control but not under guaranteed contract, I’ve listed out which arbitration years they still have remaining. There are a few players who have both guaranteed contracts and arbitration eligibility remaining, but we’ll deal with those cases in the article when a simple line in the chart doesn’t explain their situation perfectly.

Finally, “Last Year” notes where a player was ranked on this list last year, or if he wasn’t on the 2013 Trade Value series, then he is denoted as unranked. As you can imagine, there’s a lot more turnover at the end of the list than the beginning.

Now, for the cream of the crop; the most valuable players in the game.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
10 Jose Abreu 27 CHW 1B 3.9 2019 $51,000,000 Unranked
Yes, this is an aggressive ranking for what amounts to half a season of performance. Yes, this might very well look bad in a year if Abreu is this year’s Chris Davis. But, unlike with Davis, we’ve never seen Abreu not hit like this. The models that attempt to translate Cuban statistics to MLB equivalents projected Abreu as a monster even before the season began. Dan Farnsworth wrote up a glowing report on his swing last October. There are reasons beyond just 400 good plate appearances to think this is what Abreu is.

And that makes him, essentially, an older version of Giancarlo Stanton. This is top-of-the-scale power, and 29 teams are likely looking back and kicking themselves that they didn’t bid more for Abreu last winter. If Abreu were made a free agent after this season, I would guess that the bidding would climb over $200 million; after all, he projects to be a similar caliber of player as Prince Fielder did when he hit the market, and Fielder got $216 million two years ago.

Instead, Abreu will not free agency for another five years, and he’ll make an average of $10 million per year for the remainder of the contract. The White Sox are going to essentially be enjoying the prime years of one of the game’s best hitters for about 40 percent of his market salary. The deal doesn’t come with any long-term risk, really; even if Abreu regresses heavily, he’ll still be worth the contract unless he gets injured. Kudos to Rick Hahn for aggressively pursuing Abreu last winter, as Abreu’s signing breathed life into an organization that badly needed it.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
9 Evan Longoria 28 TB 3B 5.1 2023 $152,600,000 5
The former king of this exercise, Longoria’s slide continues, as he falls out of the top five for the first time since signing his original contract back in 2008. In order to keep him in Tampa, the Rays had to guarantee him real money this time around, and Longoria is having the worst offensive season of his career, so the two factors that drive trade value are both trending the wrong way.

However, let’s not overstate the decline here; a down year from Longoria is still going to result in a +3 WAR season, and there’s no reason to think this is his new level of production going forward. And that more expensive contract? He still won’t make more than $15 million in a year until 2021. Longoria remains one of the game’s best players and most underpaid players, and while he might not be as good or as underpaid as he used to be, he’s still a massive bargain compared to everyone else in baseball.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
8 Manny Machado 21 BAL 3B 4.2 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 3
Since Machado ranked third on this list a year ago, he blew out his knee, had surgery, has failed to take a step forward offensively from where he was last year, and threw a bat at an opposing player. I know it’s tempting to have a negative view on Machado right now, but let’s keep some perspective here; Machado just turned 22 years old. He’s six months younger than Kris Bryant and 10 months younger than Gregory Polanco. Machado would be age-appropriate in Double-A, and young for the league in Triple-A. Instead, he’s a big leaguer who is pushing +10 WAR for his career.

Yes, that’s because defensive metrics love his performance in the field, but it’s not like that’s an outlandish claim; everyone who watches him loves the defense as well, and if the Orioles did make him available for trade, nearly every suitor would likely plan on moving him back to shortstop. And there just aren’t that many shortstops who can be league average big league hitters before they can legally drink.

Guys who can hit like in the big leagues at this age often turn into monster offensive performers as they get older, and Machado projects to be something not too different from what Evan Longoria was in his prime if he stays at third base. If he moves back to shortstop and shows above average range there? The sky is the limit. Don’t let the last few months distract from what Machado has done to date, and what that performance says about his future.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
7 Salvador Perez 24 KC C 4.0 2019 $18,500,000 36
If there’s one piece of feedback I got more clearly than any other last year, it was that I was too low on Salvador Perez. I had one friend in the game tell me should have been in the top five, and I had him at 36. My bad, Kansas City. Consider this a mea culpa.

Perez might not yet be the best catcher in baseball, but there are a lot of people convinced that he’s going to be in the near future. He’s basically a power spike away from being Jonathan Lucroy, only he’s four years younger than Milwaukee’s backstop, and at a point where many catchers are still honing their craft in the minors. And while framing metrics don’t love him the same way they do Lucroy, his defensive reputation is still stellar, as he shuts down the running game as well as anyone.

And then there’s the contract. Because the Royals locked up Perez after just 39 big league games, he’s set to make $2 million each of the next two years, and then they have team options for three additional years at $4 million, $5 million, and $6 million respectively. It’s $19 million over five seasons, or an average of $4 million per year. The best catcher in the American league is signed to the kind of deal you give a decent middle reliever.

Perez doesn’t even have to get any better to be one of the biggest steals in baseball. If he does improve, though, he might eventually challenge for the top spot on this list.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
6 Troy Tulowitzki 29 COL SS 6.4 2021 $129,000,000 13
For the most part, the top half of this list is full of guys whose trade value is basically unknowable, because they’re just too valuable to get traded. Guys this good, on contracts this reasonable, don’t get moved. Depending on what the Rockies decide to do this winter, though, we might just find out what the trade value of the game’s second best player really is.

It’s going to take a ridiculous haul to get him out of Colorado, though, and rightfully so. Even with $130 million left on his deal, Tulowitzki is making about a little more than half of his market value. As a six win player, Tulo is worth something in the range of $35 to $40 million to per year, so while he might not be cheap, he’s still an amazing value, even while making $20 million per season.

It’s legitimately difficult to imagine what a package for Tulowitzki might cost an acquiring team. There’s basically no such thing as an off-limits player in that kind of deal. If Colorado decides to move him, we might end up seeing baseball’s version of the Herschel Walker trade.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
5 Yasiel Puig 23 LAD OF 4.4 2018 Arb2 – Arb3 24
This is another instance where the table doesn’t adequately explain the contract. Puig has four years left on the seven year, $42 million contract he originally signed with the Dodgers, and will $5 million next year and $6 million the year after that. However, the contract gives him the right to opt into arbitration after three years of Major League service, and he’ll almost certainly void the final two years of his deal and receive arbitration salaries rather than $14 million combined he’s slated to make in the last two years of his contract.

Assuming Puig keeps playing well, he could easily land $30 million in arbitration in those two years, so his total cost over the next four seasons is probably closer to $40 million than the $24 million he’s scheduled to make under his contract. But $24 million, $40 million, it’s all just peanuts compared to what Puig does on the field.

Even with a recent slump, Puig’s wRC+ is down to just 160, matching the same number he put up last year. And he’s doing it without fully developed power yet; he still hits the ball on the ground too frequently, and only 13% of his fly balls have gone over the wall this season. Puig’s obviously filled out physically, but as he learns to adapt his swing to take more advantage of the value of getting the ball in the air, there’s room for even more power than he’s showing right now.

He might not be the all around force that some players are, but offensively, there are few better young hitters in baseball than the Dodgers right fielder. And even with the potential for two arbitration salaries down the line, he’s still going to remain a ridiculous bargain.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
4 Bryce Harper 21 WAS OF 4.0 2018 Arb1 – Arb3 2
Like with Machado, it’s important to take a bigger picture view than focusing solely on the last couple of months. Harper is actually even younger than Machado, in fact, and even with his 2014 slump, he owns a career 124 wRC+ despite playing in the big leagues at ages when most players are fighting their way through A-ball. Yes, there are injury and maturity questions with Harper, but he remains a generational talent, and one who has established a track record that tells us more than a bad couple of months.

Going forward, there are few hitters in baseball you’d rather have than Harper. He might not be a premium defender or a great baserunner, but the bat is still a potential Hall-of-Fame tool. As a reminder, Miguel Cabrera‘s career wrC+ through age 21 was 121. Hank Aaron was at 127. We’ve been spoiled by the greatest performance of a young player in the history of the game, and Harper has been overshadowed by the player he came up with, but let’s not forget that what Harper has done to this point is an historical rarity as well.

He’s had a rough couple of months, but he’s still a franchise player, and the struggles will also serve to reduce his arbitration costs. Harper is still a fantastically valuable asset with remarkable upside, and that’s what teams would focus on if the Nationals ever made him available.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
3 Paul Goldschmidt 26 ARI 1B 4.1 2019 $43,000,000 9
Goldschmidt’s place here is a reminder of just how hard it is to scout hitting talent. He was an 8th round selection in the 2009 draft. Baseball America never even ranked him as one of the Diamondbacks 10 best prospects, much less considering him for their Top 100. In their final scouting report on him from before the 2011 season, they wrote that “some scouts see (the strikeouts) as an indication that he may struggle against better pitching as he moves higher in the system.”

This isn’t a knock on BA. They were reporting what they were being told by the professionals. The same ones who didn’t see him as a serious prospect out of college. And now, he might be the best hitter in the National League.

And yet, he’ll make a grand total of $43 million over the next five years. $8 million per year. It’s enough money to live on, certainly, but it’s probably about 25%-30% of his market value. There are a lot of things wrong in Arizona, but drafting, developing, and extending Paul Goldschmidt covers a multitude of sins. They might need to make some serious changes, but at least they have a franchise first baseman to build around.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
2 Andrew McCutchen 27 PIT OF 5.7 2018 $51,500,000 4
There’s an argument to be made for McCutchen to take the top spot on this list. He’s not the best player in baseball, but at just $52 million for the next four years, he’s a remarkable value. From the beginning of next season through the end of his deal, McCutchen’s remaining contract will pay him what the Cubs gave Edwin Jackson as a free agent a couple of years ago. Yeah.

That said, when comparing McCutchen to the guy who we all know is coming next, we have to factor in the fact that he “only” has four years left of team control, and the next contract for McCutchen isn’t going to come so cheaply. He gave the Pirates a huge discount on his first deal, and they probably can’t count on getting another steal next time.

Enjoy him, Pittsburgh. He might not stick around forever, but appreciate him while he’s there. McCutchen is truly one of the game’s very best players.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
1 Mike Trout 22 LAA OF 7.6 2020 $139,500,000 1
I guess this was probably obvious, given the title of the post I wrote when he signed his long-term deal with the Angels. To be honest, I tried to talk myself into ranking McCutchen or Goldschmidt #1, because the list is less interesting when it’s the same guy at the top every single year. I tried to see if there was a way to argue that the reduced cost made either one more valuable, given the savings that could then be reinvested back into the roster.

The math just doesn’t work, though. Over the next six years, Trout projects to be worth something like +50 WAR, and he’ll earn $140 million for that production. Even if you don’t start aging McCutchen for a few more years, he projects at around +30 WAR over those same six years, two of which he isn’t under contract for. Even if we conservatively estimate that he’ll earn $30 million per year in those two years — ignoring the rest of the contract that would be required to get those two seasons in the first place — then he’d make about $110 million for that +30 WAR. In other words, having McCutchen instead of Trout might save you $30 million but cost you +20 WAR in the process. Good luck buying a +3 WAR player at $1.5 million per win in order to make up the gap.

Whether it’s boring or not, Trout is just on another level. He’s our generation’s Mickey Mantle. He’s the best young player we’ve ever seen. And when it came time to get paid, he gave the Angels a significant discount anyway.

Eventually, baseball will give us an alternative at the top of this list. He’ll get more expensive, and maybe he’ll get worse — though, again, he’s only six months older than Kris Bryant — and some other great young player will come around and offer more years of team control at lower prices. Trout won’t be a despot, ruling over the Trade Value list until he dies.

But it’s going to be a while before he gets dethroned. Andrew McCutchen is amazing and insanely cheap. Paul Goldschmidt is incredible, and signed a ridiculously team friendly contract. And neither one can even make a validargument for the top spot. It’s Trout, and then 49 guys fighting for #2. All hail the King of Trade Value.

And now, for the list in its entirety.

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year
50 Yan Gomes 26 CLE C 3.4 2021 $40,950,000 Unranked
49 Starling Marte 25 PIT OF 3.0 2021 $52,500,000 31
48 Kyle Seager 26 SEA 3B 3.4 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked
47 Alex Cobb 26 TB SP 3.1 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked
46 Edwin Encarnacion 31 TOR DH 3.7 2016 $20,000,000 45
45 Julio Teheran 23 ATL SP 2.3 2020 $41,600,000 Unranked
44 Chris Archer 25 TB SP 2.4 2021 $42,250,000 Unranked
43 Devin Mesoraco 26 CIN C 3.0 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked
42 Corey Kluber 28 CLE SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
41 Michael Brantley 27 CLE OF 2.6 2018 $30,000,000 Unranked
40 David Wright 31 NYM 3B 4.1 2020 $107,000,000 21
39 Dustin Pedroia 30 BOS 2B 4.2 2021 $107,500,000 25
38 Byron Buxton 20 MIN OF 1.2 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
37 Jose Quintana 25 CHW SP 3.3 2020 $40,650,000 Unranked
36 Billy Hamilton 23 CIN OF 2.7 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
35 Matt Carpenter 28 STL 3B 3.9 2020 $66,000,000 Unranked
34 Jose Fernandez 21 MIA SP 4.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 17
33 Carlos Gomez 28 MIL OF 4.8 2016 $17,000,000 33
32 Yordano Ventura 23 KC SP 2.8 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
31 Sonny Gray 24 OAK SP 3.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
30 Gregory Polanco 22 PIT OF 1.5 2020 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
29 Kris Bryant 22 CHC 3B 2.8 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked
28 Andrelton Simmons 24 ATL SS 3.8 2020 $56,000,000 Unranked
27 Jose Bautista 33 TOR OF 4.8 2016 $28,000,000 35
26 Stephen Strasburg 25 WAS SP 4.4 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 14
25 Matt Harvey 25 NYM SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 7
24 Freddie Freeman 24 ATL 1B 3.7 2021 $123,500,000 Unranked
23 Xander Bogaerts 21 BOS SS 2.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 29
22 Yadier Molina 31 STL C 4.5 2017 $43,000,000 11
21 Buster Posey 27 SF C 4.9 2022 $165,500,000 6
20 Adam Wainwright 32 STL SP 3.9 2018 $78,000,000 23
19 Felix Hernandez 28 SEA SP 5.7 2019 $129,000,000 22
18 Madison Bumgarner 24 SF SP 3.3 2019 $52,000,000 19
17 Josh Donaldson 28 OAK 3B 4.5 2018 Arb1 – Arb4 Unranked
16 Yu Darvish 27 TEX SP 5.1 2016 $20,000,000 20
15 Giancarlo Stanton 24 MIA OF 5.0 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 8
14 Jonathan Lucroy 28 MIL C 3.9 2017 $12,250,000 Unranked
13 Anthony Rendon 24 WAS 2B 3.5 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 44
12 Anthony Rizzo 24 CHC 1B 3.3 2021 $64,000,000 37
11 Chris Sale 25 CHW SP 5.0 2019 $53,150,000 16
10 Jose Abreu 27 CHW 1B 3.9 2019 $51,000,000 Unranked
9 Evan Longoria 28 TB 3B 5.1 2023 $152,600,000 5
8 Manny Machado 21 BAL 3B 4.2 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 3
7 Salvador Perez 24 KC C 4.0 2019 $18,500,000 36
6 Troy Tulowitzki 29 COL SS 6.4 2021 $129,000,000 13
5 Yasiel Puig 23 LAD OF 4.4 2018 Arb2 – Arb3 24
4 Bryce Harper 21 WAS OF 4.0 2018 Arb1 – Arb3 2
3 Paul Goldschmidt 26 ARI 1B 4.1 2019 $43,000,000 9
2 Andrew McCutchen 27 PIT OF 5.7 2018 $51,500,000 4
1 Mike Trout 22 LAA OF 7.6 2020 $139,500,000 1
Thanks for tolerating my experiment early in the week, and for enjoying this series every summer. We’ll do it again next year. Trout will probably be #1 then too.

 

[proshares]

Midseason top five farm systems.

Spoiler

Ranking all 30 organizations based on their minor league talent is a major undertaking each winter, which is why I always decline to do a re-ranking during the season. There's simply no way I could do it justice given the amount of work it requires.

We've had a couple of major news events that affected two of the teams near the top of last offseason's rankings, however, and a slew of questions from readers about whose system is now at the top of the heap. So here's a revised look at the top five, considering only what's in the systems right now and excluding anyone on major league rosters.

1. Chicago Cubs

I know Cubs fans have heard this before, but just wait 'til next year, because this club is going to get good in a hurry, at least on the run-scoring side of the ledger. The system already had the minors' best collection of high-end bats, and it added several more over the past seven weeks, including the fourth-best prospect in the minors in shortstop Addison Russell, who came over with promising left fielder Billy McKinney in the Jeff Samardzija trade.

The Cubs also added catcher/left fielder Kyle Schwarber with the fourth overall pick in this year's draft. It's a pick I think was an overdraft in part due to doubts he will stick at either position, but he has raked so far in limited at-bats, mostly against younger competition. They used the savings on Schwarber's bonus to grab several high-upside high school arms later in the draft, including right-hander Dylan Cease, whose elbow ligament injury might require Tommy John surgery but who was seen as a top-15 pick talent before his injury. Cease has a fastball that can touch 100 mph and at times a plus breaking ball. The Cubs also have some promising hitters on their AZL club (rookie league) from their Latin American spending spree in 2013, including bonus babies Gleyber Torres (from Venezuela) and Eloy Jimenez (from the Dominican Republic), both just 17 years old.

These infusions have helped balance out a few disappointments in the system of players I ranked highly coming out of last year. Albert Almora has been a disappointment (.306 OBP in high Class A), continuing his record of awful walk rates in pro ball to date. C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson, their top two arms coming into the year, both have missed substantial time with injuries; Edwards is still on the shelf, and Johnson hasn't been effective at Double-A when healthy. Jeimer Candelario, whose only tool was his bat, hasn't hit at two levels and is about to be buried by the wave of infield prospects ahead of him. Scott Frazier, their sixth-round pick last year, appears to have the yips, with 12 walks and four hit batsmen in 22 batters faced.

Most of the successful arms in the system this year have been pitchers at low-Class A Kane County, particularly undersized Taiwanese right-hander Tseng Jen-Ho and 2012 draftee Paul Blackburn, which means the Cubs probably won't get the starting pitching help they need from their system in the next year or two. Fortunately for them and their fans, they have the bats to trade to acquire pitching from outside the organization.

This has to be the most loaded the Cubs' farm has been in at least 30 years.


2. Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton, the No. 1 prospect in baseball coming into the year and No. 2 in my latest ranking, is finally warming up with Class A Fort Myers after missing nearly three months with wrist injuries, although he did sit out last weekend after getting hit by a pitch on his right wrist. (X-rays were negative for a fracture, so he should be able to come back soon.) Kohl Stewart, their first pick in last year's draft (fourth overall), is having an outstanding pro debut, throwing strikes and missing bats as a 19-year-old in low Class A, mollifying some concerns about his lack of polish and need to clean up his delivery. Jose Berrios, No. 6 in the system coming into the year, has made huge progress with his changeup, and he has torn apart the Florida State League.

This year, the Twins landed the draft's top position-player prospect, shortstop Nick Gordon, with their first pick then went against type with a run of power relievers, including a pair of right-handers who have hit 100 mph in college, Nick Burdi and Michael Cederoth, although I would have liked to have seen a starter mixed in there somewhere. Even with Miguel Sano missing the year due to Tommy John surgery and Max Kepler taking a step backward even though he's now healthy, it's the majors' second-best system.


3. Houston Astros

You might have heard this, but it's been a rough summer for the Astros. Carlos Correa, their top prospect, broke his fibula, although his long-term outlook isn't changed by that. Their top arm, Mark Appel, has a 10.80 ERA in high Class A. Delino DeShields Jr. took a ball to the face and has understandably had a down year since then.

And the team was unable to reach an agreement with its first- or fifth-round picks -- it's a long story -- turning one of the year's best draft classes into one of its weakest. On top of that, the Astros promoted two of their top prospects, George Springer and Jon Singleton, to the majors, which is good for them but bad for their rankings. It's still a deep system and I believe Correa and Appel have better things ahead of them in 2015, but it's not the unassailable machine it appeared to be five months ago.


4. New York Mets

The Mets have graduated a few prospects to the majors -- Travis d'Arnaud (No. 2 in the system coming into the year) and Jacob deGrom (No. 13) in particular -- but the guys still in the system have nearly all taken steps forward. Noah Syndergaard (No. 1) has had an excellent year in the pitchers' hell of Las Vegas. Brandon Nimmo (No. 5) is hitting for power now that he's out of Savannah, a terrible park for left-handed power hitters. Catcher Kevin Plawecki (No. 6) continues to receive well, as expected, but he also has hit well enough to push himself up to Triple-A in his second full season.

Eighteen-year-old shortstop Amed Rosario doesn't look out of place among older players in the New York-Penn League, and he has the instincts and reactions to stay at short if he can find some consistency in the field. And they added the most polished hitter in this year's draft class, Michael Conforto, who led Division I in OBP. They still have a ton of arms but are heavier on bats at the corners than in the middle infield or center, although Rosario might eventually make up for Gavin Cecchini's .194/.269/.247 line in high Class A.


5. Pittsburgh Pirates

There's a gap between the top four systems and the rest of the pack, with the Pirates leading the remainder despite losing budding superstar Gregory Polanco to the major league side. It has been a mixed year for the Bucs, with Jameson Taillon missing the season due to Tommy John surgery, first-rounder Reese McGuire scuffling at the plate (although he's young for his level) and first-rounder Austin Meadows missing nearly three months with a severe hamstring injury.

That said, there's still a lot of upside across the system, including Meadows, Taillon, right-hander Tyler Glasnow (now rolling after an early-season back injury), outfielder Harold Ramirez and MLB-ready starter Nick Kingham, as well as one of my favorite draft classes of 2014. The Pirates might not hold this ranking, however, if they use some of this prospect depth to add something to the big league squad before the end of July.

 

[jjs07]

 

[ooiron manoo]

and lol @ Pedro Alvarez tagging NT in his IG posts.. he be lurking

Thought it was well known.

What the Padres got for Headley... Talk about letting your asset hit rock bottom before selling. Byrnes out there somewhere holding on to beanie babies.

 

[RyGuy45]

Tom Verducci:

Support of an “illegal defense” rule – or at least the consideration of it – is gaining some traction in baseball. Such a rule might stipulate, for instance, that you cannot have three infielders on one side of second base. A shortstop would be able to shift as far as directly behind second base on a lefthanded hitter, but no farther.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/22/shifts-rule-change-lefthanded-batters-david-ortiz

 

[DeadsetAce]

Tom Verducci:

Support of an “illegal defense” rule – or at least the consideration of it – is gaining some traction in baseball. Such a rule might stipulate, for instance, that you cannot have three infielders on one side of second base. A shortstop would be able to shift as far as directly behind second base on a lefthanded hitter, but no farther.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/22/shifts-rule-change-lefthanded-batters-david-ortiz

good rule

 

[proshares]

In other words:

"Our left handed hitters are way too stupid to figure out how to hit the ball to the other 50% of the field and when they try to trick team with bunts, some sand magically appears in the opposing pitcher's vagina. So we're going to try our best to kill the shift."

 

[a55a5in11]

That's a ******ed rule

 

[RyGuy45]

Here is how the popularity of defensive shifts have affected left handed batters when they make contact to right field:

2006 - .436 BA
2007 - .401 BA
2008 - .410 BA
2009 - .401 BA
2010 - .399 BA
2011 - .378 BA
2012 - .364 BA
2013 - .373 BA
2014 - .349 BA

 

[proshares]

Padres missed chance with Headley.

Spoiler

The biggest criticism of the Josh Byrnes era in San Diego has to be the move he never made. Byrnes held on to Chase Headley even after Headley had a career year in 2012, and we're now into a second successively worse season after a bad 2013. An awful 2014 has seen Headley's offense drop well below average around an early-season DL stint. That poor decision came home to roost on Monday, as the Padres traded Headley for two players who didn't make the Yankees' top 10 prospects list in January.
[+] EnlargeChase Headley
Jake Roth/USA TODAY Sports
Chase Headley's numbers have gone south since 2012.

At this point Headley might not have much to offer beyond defense, although the Yankees could use that at third base even if it doesn't come with much offense. He's an above-average defender at third, but has only shown power in one year of his career, that 2012 breakout season that looks more than ever like a fluke, but this year is also walking less often than he ever has, in part because pitchers can attack him due to his reduced potency. He's always been a better hitter from the left side, which is a good place to be in Yankee Stadium, but given how little pop he's shown the last two years I'm not sure it'll make much difference. He's replacing a bunch of minor-league types at third base, so perhaps this deal is worth an extra win to the Yankees this year.

In exchange for Headley, the Padres get a future reliever -- although he could turn out to be a pretty good one -- and a 4A player. I say Rafael De Paula is a future reliever even though he's a starter now, and even though Petco has turned many likely relievers into temporary starters over the years, but in a neutral park that's all De Paula is, a kid with a live fastball and poor command but no consistent second pitch yet.

I never bought into Yangervis Solarte's hot start, although that great month might keep him employed another five years; he's a career .288/.337/.413 hitter in AAA and would have become a free agent after the season when the Yankees inevitably outrighted him off their 40-man roster. I can't say the Padres should have gotten more, though, given how bad Headley has been this year and how not-that-much-better he was last year; a defensive specialist third baseman who used to have some pop and OBP skills isn't a highly valued commodity in today's trade market, especially not with most contenders set at third base.

 

[Hahahaha]

Rules for the shift are so damn dumb. Learn how to hit to the other side or bunt.

I like Sterling calling the Yankees game. That broad Suzy is the worst. No idea how she still has a job.

 

[kevin cleveland]

I wish big baseball would stop trying to insult my intelligence.

 

[DeadsetAce]

Ortiz why you so slow???

 

[DeadsetAce]

jack white not pleased

 

[DeadsetAce]

pre-break sox are back