2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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the Astros are .500 since the all-star break 
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see y'all in the post season next year 
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Clayton Kershaw’s Replacing Strikeouts with Strikeouts, Basically.

Clayton Kershaw‘s good! Here’s something I bet you didn’t know about him. In the first half of this season, he struck out more than a third of all the hitters he faced. In the second half, his strikeout rate is actually down 17%. Now, that’s percent, not percentage points, but it means one of six strikeout victims hasn’t been a strikeout victim. That seems like the kind of thing that should raise eyebrows. But you haven’t noticed because in the first half Kershaw allowed 19 runs, and in the second half he’s allowed 19 runs. One is less inclined to notice when great players are slightly differently great.

Also, his second-half strikeout rate is still extraordinary. Also, he’s still not really walking anybody, even though just yesterday he did put Yusmeiro Petit on base. The regular numbers love second-half Kershaw, but if you dig just a little bit deeper, you can gain a better understanding of how Kershaw has remained so dominant despite giving away a handful of whiffs.

Here’s a clue. From Sunday, Kershaw vs. Andrew Susac:

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From the same game, Kershaw vs. Matt Duffy:

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You’re looking at a couple of pop-ups. Now, granted, Duffy’s pop-up dropped in between fielders, allowing it to be a run-scoring hit. For Kershaw, that was a bad outcome, but it’s an extremely rare outcome, and all things considered he would’ve been happy with the batted ball. This season, on pop-ups, hitters are batting .021, and slugging .025. They’re almost automatic outs. In the NFL, extra-point success rate hovers around 99%, and more and more people wonder whether the kick should even be necessary. In baseball, a pop-up is a lot like an extra point. The same thing doesn’t always happen, but when it doesn’t happen, it’s highly unusual.

So you know something’s going on with Kershaw and pop-ups. Why don’t we take a look at first- and second-half splits?

Half K% BB% HR/FB% BABIP IFFB% ERA-
1st 34% 4% 8% 0.279 5% 50
2nd 28% 5% 6% 0.252 24% 46
In the first half, Kershaw’s numbers were absurd. In the second half, he’s changed things up a little bit. He’s allowed more contact, but he’s also allowed worse contact, and that pop-up rate is the highest in the major leagues. His first-half pop-up rate was among the league’s lowest. Earlier, Clayton Kershaw was piling up the strikeouts. He’s still getting plenty of strikeouts, but he’s replaced some of them with the ball-in-play equivalent of strikeouts.

By the numbers available on FanGraphs, Kershaw generated three first-half pop-ups — two on May 23, and one on June 13. So, pop-ups accounted for 1.3% of his batted balls. In the second half, he’s had just one start in which he didn’t generate a pop-up, picking up a total of 16 overall. They’ve accounted for 7.5% of his batted balls. That tells you a lot, but we also draw from a conservative data source, and Gameday provides its own classifications.

According to MLB, first-half Kershaw generated ten pop-ups. Second-half Kershaw has generated 31. And, mostly, this has been about righties. Kershaw’s pop-up total against lefties has risen from four to five. His pop-up total against righties has risen from six to 26. That’s an extremely high total, and, where have those pitches been going? You could guess, but we can confirm with the help of Baseball Savant:

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Mostly, the pop-ups have come against pitches inside and elevated. And if you examine Kershaw’s pitch patterns, you can see that perhaps this is deliberate. Kershaw has moved more often toward that quadrant.

Looking at his overall pitches against righties:

First half: 22% inside, up
Second half: 29%

Looking at his fastballs, still against righties:

First half: 31% inside, up
Second half: 40%

And how about if we look at first pitches? We’ll look at this two different ways:

First half: 70% inside
Second half: 86%

First half: 27% inside, up
Second half: 45%

More recently, Kershaw has thrown more first-pitch fastballs, and he’s thrown more of them high and tight. In the second half alone, Kershaw has generated 12 first-pitch pop-ups, 11 against righties. The second-place numbers are seven and five, respectively. Kershaw, on the season, has been pounding the zone to open at-bats. Batters, then, want to be aggressive early, because they don’t want to fall behind in the count and have to try to put a bat to Kershaw’s breaking stuff. So with batters looking to swing at 0-0, Kershaw’s moved a little closer to the hands, and more batters have gotten themselves out in a hurry. It’s a somewhat infrequent thing, but all of them add up.

There have been a few elevated breaking balls. Kershaw’s command of his slider is such that he can throw the pitch up and in from time to time, and over the past couple months, Kershaw’s slider has generated seven right-handed pop-ups, against one in the first half. But this is mostly about his fastball — that pop-up total’s risen from four to 17, looking at only right-handed batters. This is what you’d expect. The high, inside fastball is the pop-up pitch, and Kershaw’s thrown more of it. His fastball is also one of those fastballs hitters tend to swing underneath, because of its vertical movement. Kershaw has a long track record of generating pop-ups. They started to go away a little bit when Kershaw slightly altered his approach, but now they’re back with a vengeance, as Kershaw now is blending everything. He’s a strike-thrower like never before. He’s still not allowing much contact. Now he’s also limiting the quality of contact. Kershaw’s simply turned everything up to 11, blending his new skills with his old ones in becoming the perfect pitcher.

So in the first half, Kershaw struck out 34% of batters. In the second half, he’s struck out 28% of batters. But, Duffy’s pop-up aside, let’s go ahead and consider pop-ups automatic outs. That much isn’t always true, but then strikeouts aren’t always automatic outs, themselves. Blending strikeouts and pop-ups, first-half Kershaw turned 37% of batters into easy outs. Second-half Kershaw’s up at 38%. In one sense, the last couple months, Clayton Kershaw’s allowed more contact than he did before. In the truest sense, batters have just found more efficient ways to whiff.

Changing Up With the Count 3-0.

There are a few things that most people reading this know about 3-0 counts, or at least there some things we think we know about what happens when the count runs 3-0. We know the strike zone gets very big and we know batters take the vast, vast majority of the time. We also know only the best hitters get the green light in this count.

While bat still stay largely on shoulders with the count 3-0, more and more hitters do offer at these pitches – the 3-0 swing rate increased every year since 2009. If you’re going to get a good pitch to hit, why not swing? Since only the best hitters get to unload, the ones understood to be the best judges of the strike zone, the chances of a positive outcome increases. As a rough measure, consider the drop off in slugging from 3-0 to 3-1 is slight compared to the drop from 3-1 to a full count.

MLB splits, 2014 (via Baseball Reference)

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
3-0 Count 3234 22 .353 .942 .680 1.622
3-1 Count 7281 188 .348 .682 .609 1.291
Full Count 21479 366 .216 .449 .344 0.792
Despite being a trend on the rise, pulling the trigger with the count 3-0 still runs counter to conventional baseball thinking. It is a situational judgement call. If, for example, the batter was Jose Bautista and he’s facing Jeremy Hellickson in the fifth inning of a one-run game, swinging the bat is far from the worst option available to the Blue Jays slugger.

Bautista has swung the bat well of late, allowing Toronto to maintain a “girlfriend in Canada”-style relationship with the Wild Card race. Hellickson hasn’t been great since he returned from a long stint on the DL, especially vulnerable against right-handed batters as he’s been of late. Of all times to swing at a 3-0 pitch, this looked like a fine time for Bautista to zone up and unload on a pitch if he got one to his liking.

The Jays slugger wasn’t alone in this thinking, as Rays catcher Jose Molina and Hellickson were on the same wavelength. They decided to, um, change things up on Bautista, throwing him a 3-0 changeup.

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So that’s how that pitch got the name! They baffled a very dangerous hitter, getting him a mile out front. He wanted to hit it about 450 feet into the seats but it rolled about 75 feet foul.

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Though the Rays walked him on the next pitch, they dodged a bullet by avoided the worst possible outcome in this situation (a very long home run). A complete success by taking an unconventional approach. Or so I thought. Offspeed pitches in 3-0 counts are more common than I assumed. Since the dawn of the Pitchf/x era, around 2.5% of all non-intentional walk pitches thrown were classified as changeups, using data from Baseball Savant. Looking at 2014 in particular, nearly 3% of “unclassified” 3-0 pitches were changeups, more than any other non-fastball.

BS is a terrific resource but it relies on the Gameday pitch classifications, resulting in some occasionally wonky results. Looking at 3-0 changeups thrown in 2014, the standard pitch classification system spits out Justin Verlander as the pitcher to throw the most offspeed pitches in this count. A quick look at his Brooks Baseball card, where the pitch types are adjusted manually by their team, reveals they aren’t changeups but 2014 JV frowny face emoticon fastballs, the only pitch he’s thrown 3-0 this season.

The actual list of pitchers getting weird 3-0 reads about as one might expect had one invested time guessing at such things. Jered Weaver throws the most, Justin Masterson , and even Chris Sale threw a handful of changes when in the deepest of holes. In 2014, injury deprived us of the rightful name at top of this leaderboard.

Bronson Arroyo throws more 3-0 changeups than any other pitcher – more than 50% since 2012. His results with the pitch aren’t bad at all, just one single allowed against nine walks and and a pop out. For Arroyo, it plants enough doubt in the mind of hitters (combined with his heavy curveball usage in the ultimate fastball count) that he hasn’t been victimized at all in this count aside from the expected walks.

On the other side of this coin sits Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo served up an improbable four 3-0 home runs since 2010, yet he still throws throws fastballs 98% of the time. Jeremy Guthrie gets hit almost as hard in this count, surrendering three home runs. This year, he threw his first two changeups when behind 3-0, earning a called strike and a foul for his trouble.

The situation is really what dictates the decision on both sides of the exchange. Even great pitchers are unwilling to give in to great hitters from this deep hole. Sale threw five changeups 3-0 this season: one to Miguel Cabrera and two to Billy Butler, always an eager swinger with four home runs in 3-0 counts for his career. As hitters become more willing to swing in this count, pitchers and catchers add wrinkles and switch up their pitch usage.

For hitters. offering at a 3-0 pitch is not unlike swinging at the first pitch: it’s a great idea right up until the moment it fails to produce the desired outcome. Very much unlike the first pitch, there is little to lose for pitchers getting cute when behind 3-0, as the writing for this at bat is mostly on the wall.

Which brings us back to Jose Bautista.

After Jeremy Hellickson fooled him on Saturday afternoon with a 3-0 change, Bautista found himself ahead 3-0 once again on Sunday afternoon. This time it was in the 10th inning, with his Blue Jays trailing 6-5 and Brandon Gomes on the mound for Tampa Bay. With one out, Bautista again saw an opportunity to get a pitch to drive. Gomes worked carefully with three straight pitches down and away, wary of Bautista’s power. His 3-0 was over the plate enough that Bautista unleashed his violent swing…

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…and popped out to foul territory. The pitch was a good one, down and away enough to induce this easy (yet tricky) out. A big win for the Rays and a lost gamble by Bautista. It’s the sort of thing that drives some fans crazy (go ahead and search “Bautista 3-0” on twitter.)

In the right hands, a 3-0 swing is a dangerous weapon. As word gets around, teams are more and more cautious and unwilling to give in. Even when an at bat looks all but over, the gears are still turning and pitchers will do whatever they can to keep the ball in the park, even if it means throwing your second-best pitch and accepting a walk as the cost of doing business.

Domingo German: Flamethrowing Reliever or Useful Starter?

When our other prospect writers submit scouting reports, I will provide a short background and industry consensus tool grades. There are two reasons for this: 1) giving context to account for the writer seeing a bad outing (never threw his changeup, coming back from injury, etc.) and 2) not making him go on about the player’s background or speculate about what may have happened in other outings.

The writer still grades the tools based on what they saw, I’m just letting the reader know what he would’ve seen in many other games from this season, particularly with young players that may be fatigued late in the season. The grades are presented as present/future on the 20-80 scouting scale and very shortly I’ll publish a series going into more depth explaining these grades. -Kiley

Domingo German, RHP, Miami Marlins (Low-A Greensboro)

German signed for $40,000 out of the Dominican in August 2009, a couple days after his 17th birthday. He spent his age 17 and 18 years in the DSL then his age 19 and 20 years in the GCL. In that age 20 season (2013), German made progress with his command and continued his GCL success in the short-season New York-Penn League, setting up a full-season debut this year in Low-A Greensboro. German beat expectations, performing well by throwing strikes and getting ground balls in an impressive 123.1 innings. He’s showed some of the traits to start and has a chance to take another step forward in 2015, with the question being whether he turns into a back-end starter or late-inning reliever.

Fastball: 55/60, Slider, 45/50, Changeup: 45/50, Command: 40/50 -Kiley

As low-minors arms go, Domingo German has a very strong track record, with excellent ERAs and K/BB ratios the past two years. Beneath the appealing statline lies an interesting if somewhat puzzling skillset.

Fastball: 55/60

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German has good arm speed that allows him to work in the low 90s with almost no effort. In my viewing, he worked at 89-93 mph, touching 94, and he almost seemed to be holding back in his delivery, slightly short-arming the ball and not generating optimal momentum. With some mechanical improvements, he could work into the mid-90s with more frequency, and he threw 95-97 in a one-inning Futures Game appearance according to Pitch F/X data. His fastball is fairly straight, though it does boast some sinking action at times. The pitch jumps on hitters late, and he holds his velocity well.

Slider: 40/50+

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German’s breaking ball is almost the definition of a slurve, arriving at 78-82 mph with rolling three-quarters break. The shape and sharpness of the pitch seem to vary considerably, with it working best as more of a power 10-to-4 offering in the 81-82 range. If German can get the pitch more consistently in that vein, it could be an average to solid-average offering. In the Futures Game appearance, he was 83-84 with it.

Changeup: 40/45+

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German’s 84-86 mph changeup is probably his weakest pitch at present. It does have some sink and can give hitters a different look, but he gets below-average speed separation and his motion doesn’t help him in selling the offering. Its inadequacy partially explains German’s platoon splits (righties hit .228/.284/.302, while lefties .269/.320/.376), and it needs to improve if he’s going to remain a starting pitcher.

Command: 40/50+

German’s excelled at being around the zone and avoiding walks for two years running, and credit for this can largely be attributed to his being a compact pitcher with a compact, easy motion. He’s more of a mere strike-thrower than a real command artist at present, though, especially on offspeed pitches; he comes slightly across his body in his motion and doesn’t always repeat his timing pattern through release. He has the coordination to improve in this area over time and develop solid-average command.

Summary

German is one of the large class of minor league starting pitchers whose fastball runs ahead of his other attributes, thus tempting some scouts and analysts to want him moved to short relief where he can air the heater out. To be sure, the difference between his working 89-93 in my viewing in June and 95-97 in a one-inning appearance in the Futures Game the following month is eye-opening. At the same time, there’s obviously a desire to keep a pitcher in a starting role if he has a chance of succeeding there, as it gives him a higher contribution ceiling, and it’s hard to write German off in this respect given his success and the fact that he throws strikes and has offspeed pitches that are at least playable. For now, there’s enough across-the-board promise that German deserves time to continue starting and working on rounding out his game, and there’s a chance he could put up some 2014 Drew Hutchison-type years if he can do so. Otherwise, he has a chance to go to the bullpen and make an impact there thanks to his heat and ability to avoid ball four.

Small Things Adding Up: Michael Bourn’s Speedy Decline.

After 2013’s surprise run to the playoffs, in 2014 Cleveland is making a good show of it. However, at this point their playoff contention is mostly nominal.

Cleveland had a number of good things happen for them this year. They have both a serious Cy Young contender in Corey Kluber and (in a Trout-less world) a legitimate MVP candidate in Michael Brantley. The team has also made some free agent signings over the past couple of years, acquisitions that were supposed to be part of the team’s return to relevance. Despite the overall success, though, players like Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn have mostly been disappointing. In the case of Bourn, it is not any one thing, but a number of factors that have contributed to his disappointing performance the last two years.

When looked at from one perspective, Bourn’s career as a whole has been the opposite of disappointing. It started out in inauspicious fashion. Bourn’s first real chance in the majors with Philadelphia in 2007, and was less than thrilling (remember when an 86 wRC+ from a center fielder was considered bad?). After the season he was sent to Houston in a trade that sent Brad Lidge to Philadelphia. The Astros installed Bourn in center field (in between Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence). Bourn played in 138 games, and managed to hit even worse than the year before: .229/.288/.300 (58 wRC+), miserable even by today’s deflated offensive environment.

It is to the Astros’ credit (or lack of better options) that they stuck with Bourn, and in 2009 he rewarded them. He did not blow anyone away at the plate, behind exactly league average (100 wRC+) with a .285/.354/.384 line. But Bourn’s speed not only allowed him to keep playing good defense, but to exploit his increased chances on the basepaths. Bourn led all of baseball with 12 base running runs above average that season. After 2008’s replacement-level performance, in 2009 Bourn put up over four wins according to WAR.

Over the next few seasons, Bourn did his best to show that 2009 was no fluke. He did not hit for much power, and his strikeout rate was worse than average even if he did cut it a bit. His walk rate also improved a bit during his years in Houston. Probably the main factor of his success between 2009 and 2012 was his BABIP, which rose considerably from his first twoo full seasons in baseball. During those four seasons, Bourn’s BABIP was .356. This may scream “luck” to some, but keep in mind it was over four seasons. Moreover, Bourn kept the ball on the ground and out of the air, which is a pretty good formula for a fast guy without much power. And Bourn’s speed must have been a factor in his high BABIP. Obviously, it was a weapon on the bases, but also in legging out grounders. As an indication of Bourn’s speed note that from 2009 through 2012 he stole 216 bases, 45 more than the next highest.

If one believes that players can magically “turn it on” during a walk year to get a big contract, Bourn’s 2012 provides some anecdotal evidence,. Bourn had been traded to Atlanta during 2011 and was unimpressive during his partial first season there. In 2012 he had probably the best season of his career. He had the same 104 wRC+ as he did in 2011, but is included nine home runs, easily a career high, his walk rate went up to 10 percent, and the fielding metrics loved him as much or more than ever. Even if one does not buy that Bourn was a six-win player in 2012, it was an eye-catching performance.

Cleveland, at least, was impressed. signing Bourn, who turned 30 prior to the 2013 season, to a four-year, $48 million contract. To all appearances, Bourn’s game has dropped off in just about every respect. Perhaps that is not completely fair. It is not as if Bourn has been bad in all facets of his game, but it is pretty clear that he has not been what Cleveland hoped he would be for them, not even at the start. Let’s leave behind the quasi-narrative nature of this post so far and just look at his performance.

The one big drop that probably catches the eye is that fielding metrics, after loving Bourn for years, see him as getting worse the last two years. Now, it is fair to point out that given all the problems with fielding metrics, they could simply be wrong about the last couple of years. Or maybe they were wrong in rating him so highly earlier. Or maybe it was always wrong. The Fans Scouting Report also sees his defense as in decline, though, and it is not hard to believe that a player in his thirties, when speed in other aspects of the game decline, would be losing some range.

But let’s not get caught up in arguments about fielding metrics. Bourn does seem to have lost a step in general, as evidenced by his recent performance on the basepaths.After averaging more than 50 stolen bases a season from 2009 to 2012, in 2013 season he only stole 23, albeit in fewer games than in 2012. Bourn did manage to get thrown out as much in 2013 (12 times) as he did in 2012 (13 times, although he was successful 42 times in 2012). UBR also sees him as getting worse, at least this year. This loss of a step (likely due to leg issues) probably plays into problems in the field, although again, that is not the focus of this post.

Earlier, speed was mentioned as a likely factor in Bourn’s high BABIPs from his more successful seasons. However, in this case Bourn has mostly maintained his performance. His BABIP may not be as high as the .369 he managed in 2011, but his .338 last year was still high compared to most players, and his .349 so far this season is the same as his big 2012 for Atlanta.

The problem is that Bourn does not do much positive at the plate other than get singles on balls in play. The problem is not really power. It is down, , but not much — a .110 this year is not significantly lower than his .117 in 2012. His home runs on contact have gone down two years in a row, but this year are still higher than any season in 2009-2011. His extra-base hits in play (doubles and triples) this season are actually at a career-best rate.

Bourn’s walk rate is way down from 2012, but that was his career-best season. In any case, Bourn had success in 2011 with a similar walk rate to this season. But one would also rightly point out that in 2012, he had a career-best BABIP.

The single biggest problem for Bourn at the plate this year and last, at least on the surface, has been strikeouts. He may have suceeded with a similar walk rate and (lack of) power in the past, but in those seasons he had an even higher BABIP than usual. While Bourn still seems to be able to maintain a high BABIP, if he does not put the ball into play, then, well, it is hard to get hits, gets on base, and put his (declining) speed into action. Bourn’s strikeouts have always been an issue given his lack of diversified offensive game, but without his 2012 walk rate, it is even more of a problem. It is not immediately obvious what the problem is. The main driver of strikeout rate is contact rate, and his overall contact rate has been roughly the same the past few seasons. His swing rate has gone up a bit, particularly on balls outside of the zone, so that probably has hurt both his walk and strikeout rates.

Still, to lay things all at the door of his strikeout or swing rates is overly simplistic. And there an additional factor: health. After being quite durable the previous few years, Bourn played in only 130 games in 2013, his fewest since in 2007 rookie season. So far this season he has only played in 93. Just playing in fewer games hurts his value, naturally, but the injuries themselves are probably making a difference in his performance. Given that many of his problems the last couple of seasons have been leg-related, the injuries are probably contributing to his speed-related issues. Sometimes one might argue that injuries mean that once a player is healthy, he will return to prior levels of performance. However, given Bourn’s age, that would not be the safest bet to make. And not all of his problems, e.g., strikeout rate, are obviously speed-related.

Back when Bourn was a free agent, Dave Cameron wrote about the dangers of signing a player whose value stemmed mostly from outfield defense going into his thirties. The point could be extended, at least in Bourn’s case, to the problem of having speed as the primary source of his value — in the field, on the basepaths, and at the plate (via his BABIP). While there is evidence that faster players decline later than other players, if speed is the primary locus of a player’s value, once that goes, he has less to fall back on. And losing that makes the decline in less obviously speed-related aspects of Bourn’s game such as strikeout rate all that much more problematic.

Bourn’s future is not set in stone, of course. This season has been really bad for him, but in 2013, he still had some decent value, even if it wasn’t as much as hoped. Four years and $48 million is not all that onerous compared to many of the contracts given out these days (although Cleveland is hardly one of the teams capable of giving out the big contracts). Still, Bourn has not been the value Cleveland had hoped, and while some issues have been bigger than others, it has been a combination of a number of smaller issues that have led to the decline.

Baseball’s Least-Improved Pitch-Framer.

You ever notice how “improved” doesn’t have a good selection of antonyms? That’s what I’m going for. “The pitch-framer who’s gotten a heck of a lot worse somehow” gets the idea across, but it makes for a pretty lousy headline. Anyway, now you know the question being answered.

Dave has noted a few times in the past that at this point, the market doesn’t seem to pay very much for quality pitch-framing. There could be any number of reasons for this, but one could be that teams simply think they can teach their catchers to receive the ball better. Why pay for what you can instruct? Jason Castro would be an example of a guy who’s gotten way better at receiving with proper, targeted instruction. I think it makes sense to us how a guy could learn to receive pitches better. It makes less sense how a guy could just flat-out do worse. It seems like a fundamental skill once it’s learned, but every stat has its players who get better and its players who get worse, and the catcher who’s had the biggest performance decline between 2013 and 2014 is a catcher who last winter inked a three-year contract after winning a World Series.

I don’t think Jarrod Saltalamacchia was ever considered a really good framer. But during his years with the Red Sox, he wasn’t a liability, and the worthwhile numbers — those from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner — allege that he was roughly league-average. He was no David Ross, but few catchers are, and Saltalamacchia was good enough to earn most pitchers’ trust. I’m guessing this might’ve factored in to the Marlins’ offseason contract proposal, and this past spring, pitchers seemed to enjoy throwing to him:

Mike Dunn: Just to get to see him behind the plate, the way he receives, because every catcher looks a little bit different, the target is presented a little differently. It looked clean back there, even if I made a bad pitch, he made me feel like I threw it good because of the way he caught it.

When the Marlins signed Saltalamacchia, there was reason to believe his defensive work would be perfectly fine. It had been for years. Saltalamacchia was a veteran, but he wasn’t old and declining and broken. What Saltalamacchia did bring is career-average offense. Yet what he hasn’t brought is his receiving. At least, to the extent that we can measure it.

Between 2013 and 2014, there are 55 catchers who’ve had at least 1,000 framing opportunities in each season. We can look at this with a simpler method, and we can look at this with a more complicated method. Matthew Carruth presents more simple numbers at StatCorner, and according to that data, Saltalamacchia’s declined the most out of the group, by roughly a strike and a half per game. Baseball Prospectus has published and run with a more granular method, and according to their data, Saltalamacchia’s declined the most out of the group, by roughly a strike and a half per game. So there’s agreement here, and while it might be hard to explain, the numbers are the numbers. Unless the numbers are completely wrong, the lack of a good explanation doesn’t change the fact that there has to be some kind of explanation.

So where, statistically, Saltalamacchia was a roughly average framer, now he looks like one of the worst in the league. With the help of Baseball Savant, here’s his 2013 strike/ball plot:

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Here’s 2014:

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And here’s a .gif, since those images might be hard to compare as presented:

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Along the glove-side edge, Saltalamacchia’s stayed the same, with a little over 70% called strikes. Around the bottom edge over the plate, he’s stayed the same, with a little over 60% called strikes. He’s down seven percentage points around the upper edge over the plate. And along the arm-side edge, he’s down 11 percentage points. That low-away corner against righties, that pitchers love to target? Down there, Saltalamacchia’s helped less than he used to.

I don’t know exactly what it is. I can show you some .gifs of Saltalamacchia catching, but I can’t tell you what they mean. It’s just, here are balls, that could’ve been borderline strikes, from a game the other day.

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Not even a missed spot.

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Ugly reach across.

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Drove the ball too far down.

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Another ugly reach across.

Baseball Prospectus provides framing data broken down by battery. That can be interesting to peruse, and, the worst battery by framing runs is Saltalamacchia/Koehler. Second-worst? Saltalamacchia/Eovaldi. Fourth-worst? Saltalamacchia/Hand. A little north of that, we find Saltalamacchia/Fernandez, and a little north of that, we find Saltalamacchia/Alvarez.

You might be thinking: don’t the Marlins have a bunch of live arms? They sure do! And that can be hard to catch. Absolutely, Saltalamacchia doesn’t have an easy job. But, the Marlins’ other regular catcher has been Jeff Mathis. He’s been one of the better framers in the league. And while he hasn’t caught the same distribution of guys and pitches as Saltalamacchia has, who’s had the better framing data with pitchers who’ve been shared at least a decent amount?

A.J. Ramos: advantage, Mathis
Brad Hand: advantage, Mathis
Bryan Morris: advantage, Mathis
Chris Hatcher: advantage, Mathis
Dan Jennings: advantage, Mathis
Henderson Alvarez: advantage, Mathis
Jacob Turner: advantage, Mathis
Mike Dunn: advantage, Mathis
Nathan Eovaldi: advantage, Mathis
Steve Cishek: advantage, Mathis
Tom Koehler: advantage, Mathis
Mathis has been better with all the shared pitchers, by this measure, and most of the differences aren’t even small. The Marlins, as a staff, aren’t easy to catch, but that hasn’t been an excuse for Mathis. So it’s up to Saltalamacchia to adjust better than he has.

And that’s what I suspect this is. After more than three years with the Red Sox, Saltalamacchia left and had to learn a whole new staff in a whole new league. Good receivers will tell you it helps an awful lot to be familiar with the tendencies and movement of the guys on the mound, and maybe it’s just taking Saltalamacchia a while. Being a starting catcher is mighty hard work. But we’re near the end of 2014, now, and in his first year with the Marlins, Saltalamacchia’s receiving has taken a massive step back, by the numbers we can produce. Presuming the numbers aren’t misleading inaccurate crap, Saltalamacchia needs to turn this around. Maybe somehow he’s just developed worse technique. I can be only so confident in my explanations. I’m more confident, though, that there’s something to explain.

Bryce Harper, Craig Kimbrel and a Rare Moment of Weakness.

I’m going to be honest, I feel a bit dirty writing this post. We’re now on year five of Craig Kimbrel being impossibly good. For four years he’s clearly been the best reliever in baseball and, frankly, it’s one of the better stretches of relief pitching we’ve seen in recent history. Yet, this is the first post on FanGraphs this year where he is the subject, and it’s about him making a mistake. Which, really, just reinforces how good Craig Kimbrel is. He’s so good that when he makes a mistake, it becomes news. On Wednesday, Kimbrel made a new kind of mistake.

Though there hasn’t been a post this season in which Kimbrel was the main subject, that’s not to say he hasn’t been mentioned. His name was invoked in a post by Jeff Sullivan earlier this year on baseball’s most and least homerable pitches. For the purposes of setting up today’s post, I’d like to recreate a table that ol’ Jeff published:

Player Pitch HR%
Craig Kimbrel Curve 0.00%
Matt Lindstrom Slider 0.07%
Javy Guerra Fastball 0.09%
Al Alburquerque Slider 0.09%
Jake Diekman Sinker 0.10%
Jamey Wright Curve 0.12%
Brandon Lyon Cutter 0.13%
Javier Lopez Sinker 0.13%
Fernando Rodney Sinker 0.14%
Mark Melancon Cutter 0.14%
You now know what the mistake is that Kimbrel made. One of those things used to stand out from the others. Now, it’s just another low number. In case you still need help figuring it out, I’ll post the tweet that got the ball rolling on this post:

Just realized — Bryce Harper’s homer against Kimbrel a few days ago was the first EVER homer off a Kimbrel curveball http://t.co/dpSlLOU514

— Dan Rozenson (@SixToolPlayer) September 15, 2014

You can click that link to learn a little more about Kimbrel’s history with the curveball, or you can just keep reading, as I am about to explain it to you.

The pitch Kimbrel throws the most is a fastball. He throws it about 70% of the time. The other 30% of the time, he throws a bendy pitch. From 2010-2012, it was classified as a slider. Now, the classification systems are calling it a knuckle curve. The disagreement on what to call it is fitting, because it is unlike any other pitch in baseball.

Since 2008, when PITCHf/x began collecting pitch data, 157 pitchers have thrown at least 1,000 curveballs. At 87mph, Kimbrel’s is the fastest, by more than 3.5mph. At 53%, Kimbrel’s gets the most whiffs, by more than 6%. And at 9%, Kimbrel’s generates the least amount of fly balls, which leads us to the big point:

Kimbrel has thrown 1,411 bendy pitches in his career. Of those 1,411 pitches, 314 have been swinging strikes. Just 128 have resulted in balls in play. Of those 128 balls in play, Kimbrel has allowed 38 hits. Of those 38 hits, 36 have been singles. One was a double. None were triples. And, as of Wednesday, one is a home run.

In Kimbrel, clearly, you have an extraordinary talent. In Bryce Harper, you have another extraordinary talent. Sometimes, when two extraordinary talents collide, you get an extraordinary result.

History:

700


My first thought was “I wonder if Kimbrel knew?” The Braves announcers picked up on it pretty quickly. Something tells me Kimbrel knew:

700


It’s impossible to quantify exactly how good or bad an individual pitch is, but this certainly wasn’t Kimbrel’s best curve. By results, it’s the worst he’s ever thrown. By location, it doesn’t get much better:

700


But it’s not like Kimbrel throwing a curve middle-middle is a recipe for disaster. He’s thrown a curve right down the pipe like this 71 times in his career and they’ve only resulted in 19 balls in play. Of those 19 balls in play, 18 (!) were either ground balls or popups. Even when hitters get Kimbrel’s breaking ball right down the middle, they don’t even come close to doing damage with it. Oh, and here’s the other “fly ball,” from way back in 2011:

700


So how did this happen? Perhaps past history between Kimbrel and Harper can clue us in. Being in the same division, this wasn’t the first time Kimbrel and Harper had faced each other. Being a guy who throws a breaking ball 30% of the time, it wasn’t the first time Harper had seen Kimbrel’s breaking ball. It wasn’t even the first time he had seen it in the at-bat. That’s my way of segueing into the pitches leading up to the unprecedented dinger:

700


Kimbrel starts Harper off with a 96mph fastball, away, and Harper takes it for strike one. Nothing too extraordinary about this, besides maybe the amount of movement on Kimbrel’s fastball and the pinpoint command.

700


Kimbrel comes back with a breaking ball that’s almost in the dirt. Harper thinks about swinging, but wisely lays off. This pitch barely resembles the pitch he would eventually hit for a dinger, but now he’s seen the curve, and that’s what matters.

700


Now we see our first clue. Harper is waiting on the breaking ball and he gets it. But as we’ve previously outlined, that usually doesn’t matter against Kimbrel’s curve, so Harper swings through it.

After this pitch, Harper turns to Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt, smiles and says something. The camera only catches the last couple words of the exchange, but on first glance it looks like he says “so far.” I would love to believe that he told him, “Throw me a curve again and I will hit it so far,” but it’s just as likely that he said “Hitting that pitch is so hard,” or, “After my last speeding ticket, I have no car.” We’ll never know.

700


Now, with two strikes on him, Harper is still thinking curveball. He gets a 98mph fastball away, and does enough to foul it off and keep the at-bat alive. That he appeared to still be waiting on a curve is clue number two.

700


Still ahead of the hitter, Kimbrel comes back with a low fastball to change eye levels, and Harper lays off, probably still looking for a curve. He got it on the very next pitch, and did something that had never been done before.

I looked back through the rest of the history between Harper and Kimbrel’s curve, hoping to find anything else that might have led to this, but there wasn’t much. I was hoping maybe Harper had hit a deep foul ball that just missed being a homer or maybe hit one straight back. I was hoping maybe Harper was one of the seven people to ever hit Kimbrel’s curve for a fly ball and that it was sent to the warning track. Not the case. The homer can maybe be explained by the fact that Harper appeared to be sitting on a breaking ball for the last few pitches of the at-bat, but for the most part, it’s unexplainable.

The home run doesn’t change much. A streak is over, but Kimbrel is still the most dominant pitcher in baseball and his curveball is still the hardest pitch to take deep. He will go right back to punishing hitters and Harper will go right back to doing Harper things. Baseball is a game of failure, and for more than four years, Kimbrel has been beating the system. Craig Kimbrel might have thought he could fool baseball forever, but this goes to serve as a reminder that baseball always wins.
 
You > Matt Williams.
:pimp:

I'm interested to see how he uses Ryan Zimmerman in the playoffs. Can't have him playing 3B and making crucial errors, especially since his bat won't be back up to speed yet. We'd have to make it to the World Series for him to be the DH. LaRoche is hot right now so we can't put him at 1B. Rendon and Cabrera at 3B/2B are significantly superior defensively than having Zim in at 3B. Can't put him back out in LF. Guess we're gonna have an $100M pinch hitter.
 
Zimmerman will be in the OF. 
Who do you take out of the lineup? Span is on fire, Werth is playing well, and Harper's power is back. I can't really decide where I'd put Zim. I wouldn't wanna take any of those guys out, and anywhere he goes he'll be a defensive liability.
 
Who do you take out of the lineup? Span is on fire, Werth is playing well, and Harper's power is back. I can't really decide where I'd put Zim. I wouldn't wanna take any of those guys out, and anywhere he goes he'll be a defensive liability.
I feel like they'll rotate guys out of the lineup to keep Zimmerman's bat in. 

I really don't like Zimmerman and I know he's a defensive butcher, but I can't imagine the Nats leaving his bat out of the lineup. 
 
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I honestly think they'll take the risk and put him at 3rd. Move Rendon to second and bench Espinosa/Cabrera. They'll use the Cardinal series as a crutch and say the positives he brings on offense outweighs the negatives on defense. It screams Matt Williams move.

Or I can see Bryce pissing Williams off over the next couple of weeks and he'll bench him for Zimm in the OF :lol:
 
C CP1708

2014 Prospects of the Year.

While the process of selecting the top prospects was ultimately subjective, I focused primarily on legitimate prospects who performed well relative to their age, level and experience in pro ball. In short, the younger a player was relative to the other players in his league -- especially when compared just to the players in his league with a chance to have some impact in the majors -- the more impressed I was with a strong performance.

The winner here won't surprise anyone, so I discuss a number of other players who would have merited strong consideration if we didn't have such a clear favorite. I also give a separate award to the 2014 draftee who had the best pro debut, as well as a pair of runners-up.

Prospect of the Year: Kris Bryant | 3B | Chicago Cubs

I'd say it was a unanimous vote, but considering I'm the only voter, that was sort of an inevitable outcome. Still, Bryant blew away the field, dominating at two levels, leading the minor leagues in home runs and slugging percentage, finishing second in OBP (behind a 21-year-old in low-A) and ascending the rankings to become baseball's top prospect, all in his first full year in professional baseball. The second overall pick in the 2013 Rule 4 draft, Bryant probably would have appeared in the majors in September if he were already on the 40-man roster, but the current collective bargaining agreement and major league rules gave the Cubs a real disincentive to promote him for a cup of coffee. He will almost certainly be up by May 2015, however, bringing his 30-plus-homer power and outstanding eye at the plate to the heart of the Cubs' lineup.

Other contenders

Mookie Betts | 2B | Boston Red Sox

Starting Betts in Double-A this year seemed aggressive, as he had just 51 games in high-A in 2013 and would play all of 2014 at age 21. But he destroyed two levels on his way to the majors, hitting .346/.431/.529 with 33 steals in 40 attempts between the Eastern and International leagues and all but forcing the Red Sox to call him up to the majors in July. He lost his rookie status this year but performed so well that he must have a regular job somewhere at Fenway in 2015, even with the signing of Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo.

Joey Gallo | 3B | Texas Rangers

Gallo finished one homer behind Bryant for the overall minor league lead; he led the Class-A Carolina League in homers despite leaving the league in early June and fell one short of tying for the Texas League lead despite not arriving there until, well, early June. Gallo still strikes out too often, 39.5 percent of his at-bats in Double-A after his promotion, but he was the youngest every-day player in the league and showed slight improvement in his contact rate as the summer went on. Of course, nothing he did this year was likely to match the show he put on at the Futures Game.

Corey Seager | SS | Los Angeles Dodgers

Seager's .352/.411/.633 line as one of the youngest regulars in the high-A California League isn't as impressive as it looks, because Rancho Cucamonga is a great hitter's park and the Quakes play a lot of road games at other launching pads in the southern half of that league. But Seager, who is Mariners 3B Kyle Seager's little brother, moved up to Double-A Chattanooga for the last six weeks of the season and hit .345/.381/.534 there, so maybe he's just really this good. His 50 doubles led all of minor league baseball. I'm starting to think the Seagers should have had more children.

J.P. Crawford | SS | Philadelphia Phillies

Crawford earned a June promotion out of the low-Class A Sally League to high-A Clearwater, and he was the Florida State League's youngest regular in 2014. He proceeded to post similar OBP and SLG numbers to those of Dilson Herrera, who made it to the majors in late August after an outstanding minor league season of his own. Crawford even finished 24th in the FSL in home runs despite playing just 63 games there, tripling his career total in the process.

Clint Coulter | C/DH | Milwaukee Brewers

Coulter might not remain at catcher long-term, but after a disastrous first go-round in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old last year, he exploded there in 2014, leading the league in homers and walks, finishing fifth in OBP and fourth in slugging, with a strong contact rate that not only re-established him as a prospect but gives the Brewers reason to believe he can play every day at a position other than behind the plate.

They don't have a good first-base prospect ahead of him, so while that wouldn't make much use of Coulter's plus arm, if he can show he has the other skills required to play there, moving him might speed his bat to the majors. His ascension also helps blunt the pain of the non-performance of the Brewers' other top pick from 2012, Victor Roache, as Milwaukee took the two players with back-to-back picks near the end of the first round.

Lucas Giolito | RHP | Washington Nationals

While the Nats shut down Giolito after just 98 innings, he still managed to finish 11th in the Sally League in strikeouts and was fourth among starters there in ERA thanks to a low walk rate. Giolito, the Nats' first pick in 2012, managed all of this in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery despite an edict from the team to throw only his four-seamer, not his two-seamer, ostensibly so he could work on fastball command. Back in April, I was lucky enough to catch Giolito against Baltimore's 2013 first-rounder, Hunter Harvey, who also had an incredible year in 2014, and I don't think there was a better pitching matchup in all of the minors this season.

Nomar Mazara | OF | Texas Rangers

Mazara got a record $5 million bonus back in 2011 as a 16-year-old in the Dominican Republic, but despite great bat speed and a decent approach, he didn't produce much in his first try at full-season ball in 2013. Repeating the Sally League this year, he was still young for the level at age 19 and hit .264/.358/.470, earning a two-level promotion to Double-A, where he hit even better, .306/.381/.518 in 24 games (small sample alert). Mazara always has projected to hit for average and power, but he looked so far away even in his solid summer in 2012 in the Arizona Rookie League that it was hard to imagine he would see the majors before he turned 23. Now he might get there before he reaches the legal drinking age.

Daniel Norris | LHP | Toronto Blue Jays

Norris finished eight shy of the minor league lead in strikeouts, with 163, but the two guys ahead of him had at least 37 more innings pitched than Norris did. The Tennessee southpaw ripped through three levels of the minors this year, raising his strikeout rate at each stop, reaching the majors in September and getting David Ortiz, a reasonably accomplished major league hitter, looking on a slider over the inside corner. He might be in Toronto's rotation in 2015, which is a remarkable leap for a pitcher who spent 2013 in the low-A Midwest League, walking a man every other inning.

Tyler Danish | RHP | Chicago White Sox

I don't like Danish's delivery at all -- it's a low-slot, slinging delivery that puts a lot of stress on the arm -- but he can get into the mid-90s and generates a lot of sink (thanks to that arm slot), which, despite his youth, made him among the best starters in two full-season leagues. He was the youngest starter in the high-A Carolina League, where he spent most of the season, and still finished in the top 10 in the league in ERA, walking just 23 men in 91 2/3 innings, with 78 strikeouts. The White Sox have had success with pitchers who have unusual deliveries -- one of whom might win a Cy Young Award this year -- so perhaps they'll defy conventional wisdom again with Danish.

Honorable mentions: Brett Phillips, OF, Astros; Chance Sisco, C, Orioles; Dilson Herrera, 2B, Mets; Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates; Henry Owens, LHP, Red Sox; Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pirates; Marcos Molina, RHP, Mets.

Best debut from the 2014 draft class

Bobby Bradley | 1B | Cleveland Indians

Bradley led the AZL in batting average, homers and slugging percentage, and finished in the top five in OBP, despite being just 18 years old and coming from Mississippi, a state that has produced a number of high picks from its high school ranks but few prospects who've played well in pro ball. Bradley is a first baseman, so the standard for his offense always is going to be high, and it's worth bearing in mind that the AZL in general is a good league for hitters due to the slight elevation across the area.

Honorable mentions: Cubs first-rounder Kyle Schwarber finished his first summer with a strong showing in the Florida State League, after overmatching two other leagues (for which he was old/experienced) before the Cubs promoted him to high-A. He's in good shape to start 2015 in Double-A, although his defense behind the plate remains an open question. … Padres shortstop Trea Turner also had a huge debut, leading the Midwest League in batting average and finishing second in OBP and slugging percentage, although like Schwarber, he was a little old and experienced for low-A.
 
How do you guys feel about the awards so far?

I think I have...

AL MVP - Trout winning...Felix/Kluber/Brantley/Seager/Cano/Bautista all in the mix in some order behind him.
NL MVP - Kershaw (would have loved to see a couple more weeks of Stanton though :smh: ). Lucroy/Gomez/Cutch/Rendon/Buster. Btw, I'm an Upton fan but this swoon is why I could never elevate him. Dude went off a cliff in late August and in September, right when Atlanta needed him most. He's too goddamn streaky.
AL Cy Young - Felix...this is the closest one, Kluber & Sale are having such monster seasons...Sale with another 40 innings like this :wow:. AL is so stacked between those 3, Lester, Price, Hughes, Scherzer, Quintana and Richards.
NL Cy Young - Kershaw by far.
AL ROY - Abreu by far.
NL ROY - I love DeGrom but it's probably Hamilton.
AL MOY - IDK, Buck maybe? I think Yost (and Sciosia to an extent) win despite their blunders. I always try to plug Joe G for all the unappreciated work he has done the last two years but missing the playoffs won't help.
NL MOY - Man, if they give it to Hurdle :lol: what Ron Roenicke and Mike Redmond have done with those atrocious rosters is pretty outstanding to me.
 
:pimp:

I'm interested to see how he uses Ryan Zimmerman in the playoffs. Can't have him playing 3B and making crucial errors, especially since his bat won't be back up to speed yet. We'd have to make it to the World Series for him to be the DH. LaRoche is hot right now so we can't put him at 1B. Rendon and Cabrera at 3B/2B are significantly superior defensively than having Zim in at 3B. Can't put him back out in LF. Guess we're gonna have an $100M pinch hitter.
I know it's far better than having Zim at the hot corner, but isn't Cabrera a weak link, borderline liability at 2B defensively?
 
How do you guys feel about the awards so far?

I think I have...

AL MVP - Trout winning...Felix/Kluber/Brantley/Seager/Cano/Bautista all in the mix in some order behind him.
NL MVP - Kershaw (would have loved to see a couple more weeks of Stanton though :smh: ). Lucroy/Gomez/Cutch/Rendon/Buster. Btw, I'm an Upton fan but this swoon is why I could never elevate him. Dude went off a cliff in late August and in September, right when Atlanta needed him most. He's too goddamn streaky.
AL Cy Young - Felix...this is the closest one, Kluber & Sale are having such monster seasons...Sale with another 40 innings like this :wow:. AL is so stacked between those 3, Lester, Price, Hughes, Scherzer, Quintana and Richards.
NL Cy Young - Kershaw by far.
AL ROY - Abreu by far.
NL ROY - I love DeGrom but it's probably Hamilton.
AL MOY - IDK, Buck maybe? I think Yost (and Sciosia to an extent) win despite their blunders. I always try to plug Joe G for all the unappreciated work he has done the last two years but missing the playoffs won't help.
NL MOY - Man, if they give it to Hurdle :lol: what Ron Roenicke and Mike Redmond have done with those atrocious rosters is pretty outstanding to me.
No Terry Collins?

AL MVP: Victor Martinez.
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen.
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw.
AL ROY: Jose Abreu.
NL ROY: Jacob deGrom.
AL MOY: Buck Showalter.
NL MOY: Mike Redmond.
 
@JamesWagnerWP: Ryan Zimmerman played 3 innings at first in Viera & did well, per Matt. Ran bases after pair of doubles. Gets 3 at 3rd & 2 at 1st tomorrow.
 
I feel like they'll rotate guys out of the lineup to keep Zimmerman's bat in. 

I really don't like Zimmerman and I know he's a defensive butcher, but I can't imagine the Nats leaving his bat out of the lineup. 
I'd rather not leave his bat out, but the guy takes forever to get going. He's gonna need all the at bats he can get down the stretch if he's gonna be counted on to be somewhat productive.

I honestly think they'll take the risk and put him at 3rd. Move Rendon to second and bench Espinosa/Cabrera. They'll use the Cardinal series as a crutch and say the positives he brings on offense outweighs the negatives on defense. It screams Matt Williams move.

Or I can see Bryce pissing Williams off over the next couple of weeks and he'll bench him for Zimm in the OF :lol:
:smh: hope they don't do that. Zimmerman costing us a game because he can't throw the ball to 1B would be the most DC Sports thing to happen ever.

I know it's far better than having Zim at the hot corner, but isn't Cabrera a weak link, borderline liability at 2B defensively?
He's been alright from the eye test. Makes the plays he should, he's also made a few outstanding plays as well. From a metrics standpoint, he's been pretty unspectacular.
 
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