2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Digging a little deeper into Chase Headley...

I’ve been a Chase Headley fan for a few years now. He’s undoubtedly one of the best third basemen in baseball, yet he won’t get paid like it. So, the Dodgers should absolutely be in on him.

After seeing Pablo Sandoval sign for $95 million and seeing Jim Bowden project Headley to get a 3-year, $27 million deal (which is low), the Dodgers could very well end up with a bargain.

Headley, 30, hasn’t been a great hitter since his breakout 2012 year that saw him hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs, but he’s still been a valuable baseball player because of his top-notch defense. According to FanGraphs, he has been the best third baseman in the game since 2010, has the fourth-best UZR/150 (11.2) and fifth-most defensive runs saved (30) in that time. He has also played the most innings at the position (+209 1/3 innings on David Wright) at the hot corner in that time.

He is a great defender, and proved it even more so this season by leading the majors in UZR/150 by a wide margin (28.0 to Josh Donaldson‘s 13.3) and saved the third most runs at 13. For this reason alone, he’s worth a 4-year deal in the $7-8 million per season range. But his offensive potential and ability make him an easy $10-plus million a season player.

In his last two seasons, Headley has been solid at the plate: .246/.338/.387. His slugging percentage leaves a lot to be desired — especially from a third baseman, but remember, he played most of his home games in Petco Park. That park is notorious for suppressing power numbers. He was traded to the Yankees in July, where he became more of an offensive threat. His power has never returned to 2012 levels, and it probably never will. But, he has plenty of gap pop and spending more time out of San Diego should only do wonders for his numbers. He hit just .243/.331/.372 in 456 career games in Petco.

Headley also improved his plate discipline as a whole in 2014.

Year O-Swing% Z-Swing%
Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Zone%
F-Strike% SwStr%
2013 28.2 74.0 46.4 58.4 83.5 74.3 39.7 11.6
2014 26.3 65.6 43.0 63.4 88.7 79.8 42.5 8.5
He improved from 2013 to 2014 in every single category. He’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, taking more pitches inside the zone, swinging less, making more contact inside and outside the zone, seeing more pitches in the zone, getting fewer first-pitch strikes and swinging and missing less. It’s quite the improvement from the year before. Being a more patient hitter, making more contact and missing less all bodes well for a hitter’s overall performance.

Headley is also a switch-hitter. He’s better against right-handed pitching (.269/.357/.411) in his career, but he isn’t close to unplayable against left-handers (.258/.324/.403). That’s another notch in his belt.

The Yankees recently said they won’t go longer than three years for Headley. That’s their loss, as Headley should prove to be a much better value at third base than Sandoval will be in Boston. Some really smart guy named Mike Petriello wrote as much at ESPN a few weeks ago.

“Above, we shared estimates that Sandoval would go somewhere in the neighborhood of five years and $80 million, which might even be low, given his relative youth. But let’s say that’s in the ballpark, and let’s also note that both Law and FanGraphs came in at approximately four years and $56 million for Headley. That actually feels a little high to me considering his ups and downs of the past two years, but considering he reportedly turned down a three-year deal of approximately $36 million last winter, maybe that’s about right.

If those numbers prove close to being accurate, is Sandoval worth the extra $24(-plus) million or more he’d require? Is he worth the extra cash plus the loss of a draft pick, considering he received and declined a qualifying offer, whereas Headley has no such anchor? Remember, at this time of year, it’s not entirely about getting the best player. It’s about getting the best value for the money you have available, the best bang for your buck.”
I might be in the minority, but I’d go 4/56 for Headley without batting an eyelash. It’d be almost $40 million cheaper than Sandoval and he’s more likely to hold up at third base than Sandoval is.

The Dodgers probably can’t continue to rely on Juan Uribe to be their everyday third baseman. That isn’t a slight to Uribe. He had a really strong 2014 season. But, he played just 103 games after playing 132 the season before. He’s going into his age-36 season. There aren’t a ton of 36 year olds who play 140-plus games at a high level.

There is almost no one better defensively at third than Uribe is, but Headley might be one of them. Uribe would thrive in a super utility, Justin Turner-like role. Having a strong bench is one thing a contending team needs. A bench that were to include Uribe, Turner, Scott Van Slyke and (maybe) Andre Ethier would be awfully tough to beat.

Not only would a Headley signing push Uribe to a more efficient utility role, it would — for lack of a better term — force the Dodgers to commit to Corey Seager as their shortstop for the next handful of years. We’ve been hearing everyone inside the organization say Seager will be able to handle shortstop at the next level.

Andrew Friedman seems convinced.

“‘His hands work really well. We have a number of guys who feel like he has a real chance to stick there. In the few games we got to see him a couple weeks ago he had a lot of different chances and completed plays from all different angles – to the backhand, up the middle. His body control is really good.'”
Seager was ranked as the second-best prospect in this year’s Arizona Fall League crop by Baseball America, and there were some encouraging words written about his defense by Bill Mitchell.

“Defensively, he enhances his range at shortstop through good positioning. While there are persistent questions as to his ability and likelihood of staying at his current position, there are fewer voices maintaining that he’ll have to shift to the hot corner.”
This, after having ranked 18th and had this written about him last year.

“He won’t stay at shortstop but will have the size, actions and arm to handle the hot corner.”
So, signing the best all-around third baseman available would test this theory. While Seager isn’t rangy, he seems to have all the other makings of at least a defensive shortstop. His offense, if he stays there, should be above-average.

The fact is, the Dodgers don’t have long term solutions on the left side of the infield. Headley at third base and Seager at shortstop in 2016 and beyond would go a long way toward hiding the lack of depth the Dodgers have at shortstop and (particularly) third base in the minors.

I would have been fine with the Dodgers giving Russell Martin a 4-year, $60 million deal. If they were to give Headley that kind of deal, I wouldn’t be terribly upset. I’d prefer something like 4/48-52 to maximize the value. The Dodgers probably aren’t going to make a tremendous splash on the free agent market, and a guy like Headley could be the “biggest” free agent they pursue this winter. Plus, he’d go a long way to at least trying to replace Hanley Ramirez‘s production in the lineup. As of now, Carl Crawford is penciled in as your No. 5 hitter. I’m not sure the Dodgers, or anyone, really wants that.
 
400
 
That...seems like very little to give up for DiDi :lol: but I'll take it. But then again, he doesn't project to hit for much and his base stealing abilities seemed to have disappeared.
 
What is that the second time those 3 are doing a trade together? Austin Jackson deal, now this. Should be interesting how it plays out.
 
It's a done deal. Surprised we letting go of Greene. He seemed solid but I like Didi.
 
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The reported trade looks something like this:

Yankees trade RHP Shane Greene to Detroit
Tigers trade LHP Robbie Ray and an infielder to Arizona
Diamondbacks trade SS Didi Gregorius to New York

We don’t know the identify of the infielder that the Tigers are sending along, but it appears that the principles are Greene, Ray, and Gregorius. A quick look at those three.

Gregorius is 24 and has racked up +1.7 WAR in 724 career plate appearances, thanks to an 84 wRC+ and roughly average defense at shortstop per UZR. However, his defensive reputation is significantly better than that, as he was considered a plus defender as a minor leaguer, and could very well turn out to be a real asset in the field. Steamer sees him posting an 86 wRC+ in 2015, so he’s roughly an average hitter for the position, and if he fields up to his reputation, it’s not too hard to see him as a +2 to +3 WAR shortstop going forward.

As a player, he looks a lot like Elvis Andrus, though with a bit less speed and probably a little less glove. Still, nothing wrong with having Andrus Light as your shortstop, especially at the league minimum and with five years of team control. It is worth noting that Gregorius has enough service time that he’ll qualify as a Super Two player next winter, so he’ll get a little more expensive than a traditional 1+ service time player.

With Chris Owings around, the D’Backs judged Gregorius to be superfluous, and will acquire the player who fronted the Doug Fister package last winter. Ray was a bit of a flop in Detroit, pitching poorly both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, and the projections aren’t a big fan; he’s forecast to be a below replacement level arm in 2015. Maybe there’s something there that the numbers don’t see, but that’s what we said last year when Ray was traded for real value, and it hasn’t shown up yet.

For the Tigers, this seems like a pretty clear move towards the future. Greene has never been a sexy prospect, but he pitched well in the big leagues last year, and he projects to be a perfectly reasonable #5 starter in 2015. As a fastball/slider guy, he’s probably always going to have problems with lefties, but his performance against righties should be strong enough to let him soak up innings at a reasonable level.

The Yankees get a solid young starting shortstop who can probably project around league average and has some upside beyond that. The Tigers add a perfectly acceptable back-end starter to fill out their rotation and improve their club for 2015. And the D’Backs trade from a surplus, though unless the second player is something of real value, I’m not sure they come out ahead here.

We’ll do a full write-up once all the parts are known, but this looks like a fine little deal for New York and a smart enough upgrade for Detroit.
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Idk much about Didi but for a young shortstop I think Greene is expendable for you guys. Greene's just a No. 4 starter for the most part. Solid season last year though.
 
gregorius will b great

I'm just mad cuz Greene had a nasty sinking fastball..and froze a lot of hitters..definitely displayed a lot of confidence on the mound and went right at hitters

I'm pretty pissed
 
:lol:

The deal implies that two major trades from the past two winters have turned out to be failures for one club involved in each. The Diamondbacks dealt Trevor Bauer -- just 18 months off being the third pick in the draft -- to Cleveland in a three-team deal that was aimed at acquiring Gregorius from Cincinnati. Bauer appears to have turned the corner for Cleveland, posting 1.5 WAR in 2015, while Gregorius lost his job to Chris Owings, whom Arizona already had in their system at the time of the trade. The Tigers have now almost fully undone the Doug Fister trade from last offseason, sending off Ray -- supposedly the big get in that trade -- for a starter to replace Fister in the rotation; lefty reliever Ian Krol is the only remaining piece from last December's deal, while Fister himself threw out a 2.41 ERA in 164 innings for Washington (with a 3.93 FIP) and still has another year to go.
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They'll still sign Robertson if he lowers his asking price but they'll have to give him four years. I abhor giving anything over two years to relievers that are not proven to be the very best at least in a 3 year span. I have a feeling this won't look good in a year. Especially at $9mm.
 
Proshares said:
They'll still sign Robertson if he lowers his asking price but they'll have to give him four years. I abhor giving anything over two years to relievers that are not proven to be the very best at least in a 3 year span. I have a feeling this won't look good in a year. Especially at $9mm.
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What's DRob's asking price?
 
He wants the biggest deal for a closer ever. So bigger than Pap's 4/$50mm. Which is insane for any team to commit to.
 
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