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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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^ Kev, check your PM shot you something the other day.
There is a new manager in town in Don Mattingly, and maybe the change is the reason the Los Angeles Dodgers' camp feels different this year. Or maybe it's because the core group of young Dodgers -- Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier and Chad Billingsley -- crashed into the first real episode of collective failure in their careers last season.
The Dodgers were 25-18 on May 22, and then the sloppy defensive play they had managed to overcome began eroding their playoff hopes; after losing their first six games after the All-Star break, L.A. was largely irrelevant down the stretch.
But this spring, a lot of the Dodgers showed up early to camp, and they are doing more work, and the work is more diligent, in the eyes of general manager Ned Colletti. "I think they've all taken on a new sense of urgency," Colletti said Friday. "I've seen longer work, and more attention to detail."
Which is necessary, because the division which a decade ago often seemed pathetic has consistently generated some of baseball's best races and best teams in recent years. Over the past four seasons, five of the eight teams to reach the National League Championship Series have come from the NL West: the Dodgers twice, the San Francisco Giants, the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks (the Philadelphia Phillies are the only other NL team to advance that far, three times). The Giants are the current champions, the Padres won 90 games last season, the Diamondbacks have improved their bullpen, the Rockies have a powerful core of players and a deep roster and the Dodgers greatly improved their rotation from a year ago, with the development of Clayton Kershaw and the addition of Ted Lilly.
"The teams that have won [in the NL West] have done it with pitching and defense, and we're no different," Colletti said. "It's going to come down to executing, to making plays. You have to be fundamentally sound to win this division. If you can't execute, you can't win."
With Kershaw seemingly making the same transformation from an excellent pitcher into someone who consistently dominates, and with the improved depth in the rotation, the Dodgers don't have to be a dynamic offensive team. But those core guys -- Ethier (who was an MVP candidate early last year, hitting .392 before he was sidelined in May), Loney and Kemp -- must hit, and must produce.
Vicente Padilla should be back sometime in early May, and no matter what role he plays -- setup man, starter, whatever -- the Dodgers feel that he'll help because of his fearlessness.
Mattingly, by the way, is relating well to the players, in the eyes of Colletti -- which is probably not a surprise, because during his playing days he was one of baseball's most respected teammates. "The same qualities that made him a great player will help him as a manager," the GM said.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jon Daniels and the Texas Rangers agreed to a four-year extension for the general manager. It's a long-term reward, as Jeff Wilson writes.
• The Dodgers are very impressed with what they've seen from Rubby De la Rosa, a 21-year-old pitcher who they signed for a $15,000 bonus as a teenager. De La Rosa reached Double-A last year, posting a 2.37 ERA in 22 appearances, and this spring, he has been clocked with a fastball at 96-98 mph. "Great composure on the mound," Colletti said. "He has great command of his emotions."
De La Rosa is expected to start the year in the minors and it's very possible that he'll finish the year there, but Colletti did not rule out the possibility that he could be considered for promotion later in the season.
• A talent evaluator on Jake Peavy's start Friday, when he showed a good fastball: "He looked normal, right down to cursing himself out on the mound when he missed his spot. He threw at a comfortable 91 mph and located each of his pitches well for a first spring outing. … It was a nice step forward for him."
Peavy said he felt completely normal, as Tyler Kepner writes. It's all systems go for Peavy, writes Dave van Dyck.
• The second straight subpar outing for Huston Street is raising questions, writes Troy Renck.
• It was a really tough day for the Houston Astros, who learned that Jason Castro will miss the entire season after requiring reconstructive knee surgery.
• One of the first baseball memories Houston manager Brad Mills has is going to a Giants game with his father at age 6, and looking out on the field and seeing the No. 24 of Willie Mays. Subsequently, Mills was selected for his neighborhood's version of a Little League team and was told that he would be a center fielder, and his first thought was -- of course -- that he would be able to play the same position as Willie.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Morry GashThe Angels are looking for a left-handed bat to add to their lineup, and Mark Teahen could be just the guy.
• Heard this: The Los Angeles Angels are asking around for a left-handed hitter, to help balance a lineup that is built on a lot of right-handed hitting, from Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Howie Kendrick. Presumably, a left-handed hitter who can play third base (Mark Teahen, perhaps?) would be a good fit.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Francisco Cervelli has a broken foot, and this will probably accelerate the timeline of Jesus Montero.
2. Here's an update on Chase Utley. Position players don't need much time to get cranked up and ready for the season, and it makes sense for the Phillies to save bullets for Utley, who probably will be dealing with this tendinitis issue after the season starts.
3. Josh Beckett worked in a simulated game, as Peter Abraham writes.
4. Delmon Young is out indefinitely, writes La Velle Neal.
5. Lance Berkman's early breakdowns are a cause for concern in the Cardinals' camp.
6. Derrek Lee is going to be held out of Saturday's game with a wrist issue.
7. Jason Heyward might be back in the lineup on Sunday.
8. The Rangers' Tanner Scheppers has been shut down, as Jeff Wilson writes within this notebook.
9. Aaron Hill's quad is bothering him.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. The fight for the No. 5 spot in the Nationals' rotation is progressing, writes Dave Sheinin -- Tom Gorzelanny threw well, while Chien-Ming Wang cut short his scheduled work.
2. Daniel Moskos is working to be part of the Pittsburgh Pirates' staff.
3. Garrett Jones is prepping for his new work as a platoon player.
4. Justin Turner is competing for the second-base job with the Mets, as Andy McCullough writes.
5. Mike Minor was not sharp in his second outing, as Carroll Rogers writes.
6. Jesse Litsch seems to be separating himself in the battle for a spot in the Toronto rotation.
7. At-bats are important for Scott Sizemore, who is trying to win the Detroit Tigers' second-base job. When Carlos Guillen is ready, he'll be the second baseman. Guillen mentioned the other day that he thinks he'll be ready in three weeks or so.
8. A new guy got a shot in the Milwaukee Brewers' outfield.
9. Kevin Slowey would be OK with relieving, if necessary.
10. Landon Powell is being challenged for the backup catching spot.
11. A piece from the Adrian Gonzalez trade is demonstrating his usefulness in the San Diego Padres' camp.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Washington Nationals cut three players from their spring roster.
2. The Seattle Mariners signed their fourth-round pick, writes Bob Condotta.
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. Barry Zito pitched better in his second outing, writes Henry Schulman.
2. Bees interrupted the Atlanta Braves' game.
3. Alex Torres of the Tampa Bay Rays is one of the names emerging from the early weeks of spring training, and he threw two scoreless innings Friday.
4. Kyle Lohse looked good, as Derrick Goold writes.
5. Chris Young was impressive again for the New York Mets. If he's healthy, he'll be good.
6. The ancient Omar Vizquel stole a base.
7. Matt Garza says he's fine, after getting hit by a line drive.
8. Dontrelle Willis threw two perfect innings.
9. Fausto Carmona was The Man for the Cleveland Indians.
10. Scott Kazmir says he's feeling better.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• There is sad news about the first American who played baseball in Japan.
• Milton Bradley has been accused of spousal abuse in divorce papers filed by his wife.
• George Steinbrenner was referenced in the Wikileaks papers, which Hank Steinbrenner feels is ridiculous.
• Pete Rose is divorcing.
• Pat Leyland's mom watches his at-bats from the stands. Before the game, I was standing in the Tigers' dugout when Jim Leyland shouted to his son, and the two of them stood for a picture together -- presumably taken by his mom. Pretty neat.
• Terry Francona isn't buying into what Brian Cashman is saying.
• Billy Butler has a specific approach in his at-bats.
• Matt LaPorta continues to be an enigma in the Indians camp, writes Bud Shaw.
• Shin-Soo Choo is thinking playoffs.
• Dejan Kovacevic reviews the remarks made by Pirates President Frank ****elly last week, and thinks they are rooted in simple math.
• Carlos Silva says he was mad at himself when he incited a dugout fight with words.
• Justin Upton has been a passive baserunner.
• Juan Uribe has been helped in tough times by the memory of an uncle, writes Dylan Hernandez.
• Desmond Jennings, long seen as a possible heir apparent to Carl Crawford, wants to forge his own path. There are questions among rival scouts about Jennings' bat speed, and while the Rays typically advance their prospects with great deliberation as they manage the players' development and major league service time, Jennings is older than most prime prospects. He has 24 plate appearances in the big leagues, and turned 24 last October.
• It may not be the same old story for the current crop of young Baltimore Orioles pitchers, writes Peter Schmuck.
• Johnny Damon's smile is always contagious, writes Martin Fennelly.
• Charlie Manuel wants to be loaded with lefties in his bullpen. The Braves and Marlins have worked along the same lines.
• Vanderbilt's Kevin Stallings is good friends with Belmont coach Rick Byrd.
• John Green, the Dodgers' scout who is the father of Christina Taylor Green -- the young girl who was killed in the shootings in Tucson, Ariz. -- is back at work. The work of scouts takes them on the road a lot, of course, and the Dodgers have told the Green family that the team will facilitate the travel of all of them together, whenever needed.
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers announced that all proceeds from a March 25 exhibition game in Tucson will go to raise money in Christina's name for the Tucson Together Fund. The two teams worked out the Friday date, feeling that there would be a bigger crowd.
From the news release: "The Tucson Together Fund provides financial assistance to victims, witnesses and their families for expenses associated with the tragedy. The Tucson Together Fund also assists with expenses related to the shooting incident that are not eligible for financial assistance through the Crime Victim Compensation Program. The Tucson Together Fund will cover a variety of short-term and long-term expenses related to the tragedy, such as travel expenses, food and lodging. Additionally, it may pay for some expenses that are ineligible under the Crime Victim Compensation Program such as loss of wages, funeral and counseling. Any expense related to the victim, witness and families that are not covered fully by another source may be considered."
And today will be better than yesterday.
If there's one person in the Cardinals' organization who might actually be relieved by the extensive coverage this spring of Albert Pujols' failed contract negotiations and Adam Wainwright's season-ending injury, it's Colby Rasmus.
Without all the hubbub over Al and Adam, the focus in camp very likely would be on the player who was the most divisive in St. Louis last season. That's the rep that Rasmus gained, for better or worse, after his late-season tiff with manager Tony La Russa led to a decrease in playing time and sparked reports that the center fielder wanted to be traded.
So why doesn't GM John Mozeliak take him up on the offer?
Because when it comes to trading a 24-year-old former first-rounder who plays an up-the-middle position, is under team control for another four years and showed developing skills in just his second season ... well, you just don't. Unless there are warning signs -- beyond any motivation or attitude issues -- that are easy to overlook but hard to ignore.
A cursory glance at Rasmus' season indicates vast improvement in everything from his rate stats (.251/.307/.407 in 2009 to .276/.361/.498 in 2010) to his counting ones, including noticeable increases in homers, runs, RBIs and steals. That he did this in 10 fewer at-bats is all the more impressive.
That's also what makes this next stat all the more foreboding: 148 strikeouts. Rasmus' K total skyrocketed by 53 whiffs from 2009. The left-handed hitter's strikeout rate for the season translated to 31.9 percent, which means he struck out in nearly one-third of his at-bats, the fifth-worst rate in baseball. That's not just bad; it very possibly could be irreparably bad.
The four hitters who K'd more frequently than Rasmus last season?
Mark Reynolds: 42.3 percent
Adam Dunn: 35.7 percent
Drew Stubbs: 32.7 percent
Carlos Pena: 32.6 percent
It gets worse. Over the past five seasons, Rasmus' 31.9 percent K rate was "topped" only 19 times by just 10 different players. That tells you two things: One, it's hard for hitters to strike out that often; and two, if a hitter does strike out that often, chances are, he's going to continue to do so.
Here are those 10 players, along with the number of times they've struck out in at least 30 percent of their at-bats over a qualifying season:
Adam Dunn (9 times/9 seasons)
Ryan Howard (4/5)
Carlos Pena (4/6)
Mark Reynolds (3/3)
Jack Cust (3/3)
B.J. Upton (2/4)
Mike Cameron (2/10)
Russell Branyan (1/1)
Drew Stubbs (1/1)
Dan Uggla (1/5)
Now, there is value within this group. Heck, there's an MVP in there. But for Rasmus, being in this company indicates that not only will his average hover around .250 on a yearly basis, he will also need to transform into more of a power hitter capable of 30-homer seasons to maintain his offensive value and avoid falling into a career as a skilled but ultimately flawed journeyman type. (Don't be fooled by Rasmus' batting average spike last year: His .354 average on balls in play was 72 points higher than his 2009 BABIP, which means he got some good bounces.)
If Rasmus doesn't turn into Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn -- unlikely, given his size and skill set -- he may well turn out to be Mike Cameron or B.J. Upton. For all Cameron's value during his 16-year career, he's also played for seven different teams. And it's not hard to see Upton going down a similar path once he exceeds his arbitration years. Frankly, if the Rays could go back four years and trade Upton after his outstanding 2007 season when his value was highest, they probably would.
All of which brings us back to the idea of trading Rasmus. Apart from his own issues with putting bat on ball, there are two problems the Cardinals are facing as an organization.
J. Meric/Getty ImagesThe Twins have supposedly put Liriano on the trade market, and he could help fill the void created by Wainwright's elbow injury.
Problem No. 1: The loss of Wainwright
Without their ace, the Cardinals' playoff hopes take a massive hit, especially after the Brewers and Cubs improved their rotations this offseason and the reigning Reds currently have six starters. St. Louis' sudden lack of an ace leaves the team even further behind. If the Cardinals are, in fact, still thinking 2011 or bust, the best option could be trading for an appropriate replacement, and dangling Rasmus could intrigue teams like the Twins (Francisco Liriano), Marlins (Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco) or Rays (James Shields). But that might not be the most prudent path, even if -- or rather because -- 2011 may be Pujols' last go-round.
Problem No. 2: Little minor league talent
Trying to find impactful major league-ready talent among St. Louis farmhands is like searching for subtlety in a Lady Gaga performance -- you're looking in the wrong place. Any gain from the 2009 trades of former top prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Perez (ostensibly, Matt Holliday), came at the expense of the future, and now the Cards are feeling the effect. Keith Law rated just three Cardinals in his Top 100 prospects list. None of those three -- Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Zack Cox -- is older than 21, and there's just one full season among them. In Law's organizational rankings, St. Louis came in at a mediocre No. 14, and the key takeaway in his evaluation is that there are plenty of "fifth starters, quality relievers, [and] fourth outfielders."
In other words, there won't be many reinforcements from within. What's worse, given the construct of the team -- a few studs surrounded by marginal role players -- if the Cards are going to go all-in on 2011 while they still have Pujols, any midseason prospect trades would only further deplete a system that can't afford the hit.
Rasmus, though, is a commodity that is both tradable and valuable. He's young and talented enough to bring immediate help to the Cards and future talent to restock their minor leagues. He's also not irreplaceable: Jon Jay may not have the same upside, but he did hit .300 in his first exposure to the bigs, while actually taking PT away from a slumping Rasmus in July and August.
The key here is timing. Right now, Rasmus is seen as a cost-controlled player with limitless five-tool potential, the type of chip that would get 29 other GMs drooling. But if Mozeliak waits too long, Rasmus' tip-of-the-iceberg talents could be exposed as should-have-seen-this-coming flaws. Not to mention, another trade request from Rasmus, who will have to deal with La Russa for at least one more season, would kill the Cardinals' leverage.
And in turn, that could kill not only their 2011 season without Wainwright, but also their future without Pujols.
^ Kev, check your PM shot you something the other day.
There is a new manager in town in Don Mattingly, and maybe the change is the reason the Los Angeles Dodgers' camp feels different this year. Or maybe it's because the core group of young Dodgers -- Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier and Chad Billingsley -- crashed into the first real episode of collective failure in their careers last season.
The Dodgers were 25-18 on May 22, and then the sloppy defensive play they had managed to overcome began eroding their playoff hopes; after losing their first six games after the All-Star break, L.A. was largely irrelevant down the stretch.
But this spring, a lot of the Dodgers showed up early to camp, and they are doing more work, and the work is more diligent, in the eyes of general manager Ned Colletti. "I think they've all taken on a new sense of urgency," Colletti said Friday. "I've seen longer work, and more attention to detail."
Which is necessary, because the division which a decade ago often seemed pathetic has consistently generated some of baseball's best races and best teams in recent years. Over the past four seasons, five of the eight teams to reach the National League Championship Series have come from the NL West: the Dodgers twice, the San Francisco Giants, the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks (the Philadelphia Phillies are the only other NL team to advance that far, three times). The Giants are the current champions, the Padres won 90 games last season, the Diamondbacks have improved their bullpen, the Rockies have a powerful core of players and a deep roster and the Dodgers greatly improved their rotation from a year ago, with the development of Clayton Kershaw and the addition of Ted Lilly.
"The teams that have won [in the NL West] have done it with pitching and defense, and we're no different," Colletti said. "It's going to come down to executing, to making plays. You have to be fundamentally sound to win this division. If you can't execute, you can't win."
With Kershaw seemingly making the same transformation from an excellent pitcher into someone who consistently dominates, and with the improved depth in the rotation, the Dodgers don't have to be a dynamic offensive team. But those core guys -- Ethier (who was an MVP candidate early last year, hitting .392 before he was sidelined in May), Loney and Kemp -- must hit, and must produce.
Vicente Padilla should be back sometime in early May, and no matter what role he plays -- setup man, starter, whatever -- the Dodgers feel that he'll help because of his fearlessness.
Mattingly, by the way, is relating well to the players, in the eyes of Colletti -- which is probably not a surprise, because during his playing days he was one of baseball's most respected teammates. "The same qualities that made him a great player will help him as a manager," the GM said.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jon Daniels and the Texas Rangers agreed to a four-year extension for the general manager. It's a long-term reward, as Jeff Wilson writes.
• The Dodgers are very impressed with what they've seen from Rubby De la Rosa, a 21-year-old pitcher who they signed for a $15,000 bonus as a teenager. De La Rosa reached Double-A last year, posting a 2.37 ERA in 22 appearances, and this spring, he has been clocked with a fastball at 96-98 mph. "Great composure on the mound," Colletti said. "He has great command of his emotions."
De La Rosa is expected to start the year in the minors and it's very possible that he'll finish the year there, but Colletti did not rule out the possibility that he could be considered for promotion later in the season.
• A talent evaluator on Jake Peavy's start Friday, when he showed a good fastball: "He looked normal, right down to cursing himself out on the mound when he missed his spot. He threw at a comfortable 91 mph and located each of his pitches well for a first spring outing. … It was a nice step forward for him."
Peavy said he felt completely normal, as Tyler Kepner writes. It's all systems go for Peavy, writes Dave van Dyck.
• The second straight subpar outing for Huston Street is raising questions, writes Troy Renck.
• It was a really tough day for the Houston Astros, who learned that Jason Castro will miss the entire season after requiring reconstructive knee surgery.
• One of the first baseball memories Houston manager Brad Mills has is going to a Giants game with his father at age 6, and looking out on the field and seeing the No. 24 of Willie Mays. Subsequently, Mills was selected for his neighborhood's version of a Little League team and was told that he would be a center fielder, and his first thought was -- of course -- that he would be able to play the same position as Willie.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Morry GashThe Angels are looking for a left-handed bat to add to their lineup, and Mark Teahen could be just the guy.
• Heard this: The Los Angeles Angels are asking around for a left-handed hitter, to help balance a lineup that is built on a lot of right-handed hitting, from Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Howie Kendrick. Presumably, a left-handed hitter who can play third base (Mark Teahen, perhaps?) would be a good fit.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Francisco Cervelli has a broken foot, and this will probably accelerate the timeline of Jesus Montero.
2. Here's an update on Chase Utley. Position players don't need much time to get cranked up and ready for the season, and it makes sense for the Phillies to save bullets for Utley, who probably will be dealing with this tendinitis issue after the season starts.
3. Josh Beckett worked in a simulated game, as Peter Abraham writes.
4. Delmon Young is out indefinitely, writes La Velle Neal.
5. Lance Berkman's early breakdowns are a cause for concern in the Cardinals' camp.
6. Derrek Lee is going to be held out of Saturday's game with a wrist issue.
7. Jason Heyward might be back in the lineup on Sunday.
8. The Rangers' Tanner Scheppers has been shut down, as Jeff Wilson writes within this notebook.
9. Aaron Hill's quad is bothering him.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. The fight for the No. 5 spot in the Nationals' rotation is progressing, writes Dave Sheinin -- Tom Gorzelanny threw well, while Chien-Ming Wang cut short his scheduled work.
2. Daniel Moskos is working to be part of the Pittsburgh Pirates' staff.
3. Garrett Jones is prepping for his new work as a platoon player.
4. Justin Turner is competing for the second-base job with the Mets, as Andy McCullough writes.
5. Mike Minor was not sharp in his second outing, as Carroll Rogers writes.
6. Jesse Litsch seems to be separating himself in the battle for a spot in the Toronto rotation.
7. At-bats are important for Scott Sizemore, who is trying to win the Detroit Tigers' second-base job. When Carlos Guillen is ready, he'll be the second baseman. Guillen mentioned the other day that he thinks he'll be ready in three weeks or so.
8. A new guy got a shot in the Milwaukee Brewers' outfield.
9. Kevin Slowey would be OK with relieving, if necessary.
10. Landon Powell is being challenged for the backup catching spot.
11. A piece from the Adrian Gonzalez trade is demonstrating his usefulness in the San Diego Padres' camp.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Washington Nationals cut three players from their spring roster.
2. The Seattle Mariners signed their fourth-round pick, writes Bob Condotta.
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. Barry Zito pitched better in his second outing, writes Henry Schulman.
2. Bees interrupted the Atlanta Braves' game.
3. Alex Torres of the Tampa Bay Rays is one of the names emerging from the early weeks of spring training, and he threw two scoreless innings Friday.
4. Kyle Lohse looked good, as Derrick Goold writes.
5. Chris Young was impressive again for the New York Mets. If he's healthy, he'll be good.
6. The ancient Omar Vizquel stole a base.
7. Matt Garza says he's fine, after getting hit by a line drive.
8. Dontrelle Willis threw two perfect innings.
9. Fausto Carmona was The Man for the Cleveland Indians.
10. Scott Kazmir says he's feeling better.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• There is sad news about the first American who played baseball in Japan.
• Milton Bradley has been accused of spousal abuse in divorce papers filed by his wife.
• George Steinbrenner was referenced in the Wikileaks papers, which Hank Steinbrenner feels is ridiculous.
• Pete Rose is divorcing.
• Pat Leyland's mom watches his at-bats from the stands. Before the game, I was standing in the Tigers' dugout when Jim Leyland shouted to his son, and the two of them stood for a picture together -- presumably taken by his mom. Pretty neat.
• Terry Francona isn't buying into what Brian Cashman is saying.
• Billy Butler has a specific approach in his at-bats.
• Matt LaPorta continues to be an enigma in the Indians camp, writes Bud Shaw.
• Shin-Soo Choo is thinking playoffs.
• Dejan Kovacevic reviews the remarks made by Pirates President Frank ****elly last week, and thinks they are rooted in simple math.
• Carlos Silva says he was mad at himself when he incited a dugout fight with words.
• Justin Upton has been a passive baserunner.
• Juan Uribe has been helped in tough times by the memory of an uncle, writes Dylan Hernandez.
• Desmond Jennings, long seen as a possible heir apparent to Carl Crawford, wants to forge his own path. There are questions among rival scouts about Jennings' bat speed, and while the Rays typically advance their prospects with great deliberation as they manage the players' development and major league service time, Jennings is older than most prime prospects. He has 24 plate appearances in the big leagues, and turned 24 last October.
• It may not be the same old story for the current crop of young Baltimore Orioles pitchers, writes Peter Schmuck.
• Johnny Damon's smile is always contagious, writes Martin Fennelly.
• Charlie Manuel wants to be loaded with lefties in his bullpen. The Braves and Marlins have worked along the same lines.
• Vanderbilt's Kevin Stallings is good friends with Belmont coach Rick Byrd.
• John Green, the Dodgers' scout who is the father of Christina Taylor Green -- the young girl who was killed in the shootings in Tucson, Ariz. -- is back at work. The work of scouts takes them on the road a lot, of course, and the Dodgers have told the Green family that the team will facilitate the travel of all of them together, whenever needed.
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers announced that all proceeds from a March 25 exhibition game in Tucson will go to raise money in Christina's name for the Tucson Together Fund. The two teams worked out the Friday date, feeling that there would be a bigger crowd.
From the news release: "The Tucson Together Fund provides financial assistance to victims, witnesses and their families for expenses associated with the tragedy. The Tucson Together Fund also assists with expenses related to the shooting incident that are not eligible for financial assistance through the Crime Victim Compensation Program. The Tucson Together Fund will cover a variety of short-term and long-term expenses related to the tragedy, such as travel expenses, food and lodging. Additionally, it may pay for some expenses that are ineligible under the Crime Victim Compensation Program such as loss of wages, funeral and counseling. Any expense related to the victim, witness and families that are not covered fully by another source may be considered."
And today will be better than yesterday.
If there's one person in the Cardinals' organization who might actually be relieved by the extensive coverage this spring of Albert Pujols' failed contract negotiations and Adam Wainwright's season-ending injury, it's Colby Rasmus.
Without all the hubbub over Al and Adam, the focus in camp very likely would be on the player who was the most divisive in St. Louis last season. That's the rep that Rasmus gained, for better or worse, after his late-season tiff with manager Tony La Russa led to a decrease in playing time and sparked reports that the center fielder wanted to be traded.
So why doesn't GM John Mozeliak take him up on the offer?
Because when it comes to trading a 24-year-old former first-rounder who plays an up-the-middle position, is under team control for another four years and showed developing skills in just his second season ... well, you just don't. Unless there are warning signs -- beyond any motivation or attitude issues -- that are easy to overlook but hard to ignore.
A cursory glance at Rasmus' season indicates vast improvement in everything from his rate stats (.251/.307/.407 in 2009 to .276/.361/.498 in 2010) to his counting ones, including noticeable increases in homers, runs, RBIs and steals. That he did this in 10 fewer at-bats is all the more impressive.
That's also what makes this next stat all the more foreboding: 148 strikeouts. Rasmus' K total skyrocketed by 53 whiffs from 2009. The left-handed hitter's strikeout rate for the season translated to 31.9 percent, which means he struck out in nearly one-third of his at-bats, the fifth-worst rate in baseball. That's not just bad; it very possibly could be irreparably bad.
The four hitters who K'd more frequently than Rasmus last season?
Mark Reynolds: 42.3 percent
Adam Dunn: 35.7 percent
Drew Stubbs: 32.7 percent
Carlos Pena: 32.6 percent
It gets worse. Over the past five seasons, Rasmus' 31.9 percent K rate was "topped" only 19 times by just 10 different players. That tells you two things: One, it's hard for hitters to strike out that often; and two, if a hitter does strike out that often, chances are, he's going to continue to do so.
Here are those 10 players, along with the number of times they've struck out in at least 30 percent of their at-bats over a qualifying season:
Adam Dunn (9 times/9 seasons)
Ryan Howard (4/5)
Carlos Pena (4/6)
Mark Reynolds (3/3)
Jack Cust (3/3)
B.J. Upton (2/4)
Mike Cameron (2/10)
Russell Branyan (1/1)
Drew Stubbs (1/1)
Dan Uggla (1/5)
Now, there is value within this group. Heck, there's an MVP in there. But for Rasmus, being in this company indicates that not only will his average hover around .250 on a yearly basis, he will also need to transform into more of a power hitter capable of 30-homer seasons to maintain his offensive value and avoid falling into a career as a skilled but ultimately flawed journeyman type. (Don't be fooled by Rasmus' batting average spike last year: His .354 average on balls in play was 72 points higher than his 2009 BABIP, which means he got some good bounces.)
If Rasmus doesn't turn into Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn -- unlikely, given his size and skill set -- he may well turn out to be Mike Cameron or B.J. Upton. For all Cameron's value during his 16-year career, he's also played for seven different teams. And it's not hard to see Upton going down a similar path once he exceeds his arbitration years. Frankly, if the Rays could go back four years and trade Upton after his outstanding 2007 season when his value was highest, they probably would.
All of which brings us back to the idea of trading Rasmus. Apart from his own issues with putting bat on ball, there are two problems the Cardinals are facing as an organization.
J. Meric/Getty ImagesThe Twins have supposedly put Liriano on the trade market, and he could help fill the void created by Wainwright's elbow injury.
Problem No. 1: The loss of Wainwright
Without their ace, the Cardinals' playoff hopes take a massive hit, especially after the Brewers and Cubs improved their rotations this offseason and the reigning Reds currently have six starters. St. Louis' sudden lack of an ace leaves the team even further behind. If the Cardinals are, in fact, still thinking 2011 or bust, the best option could be trading for an appropriate replacement, and dangling Rasmus could intrigue teams like the Twins (Francisco Liriano), Marlins (Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco) or Rays (James Shields). But that might not be the most prudent path, even if -- or rather because -- 2011 may be Pujols' last go-round.
Problem No. 2: Little minor league talent
Trying to find impactful major league-ready talent among St. Louis farmhands is like searching for subtlety in a Lady Gaga performance -- you're looking in the wrong place. Any gain from the 2009 trades of former top prospects Brett Wallace and Chris Perez (ostensibly, Matt Holliday), came at the expense of the future, and now the Cards are feeling the effect. Keith Law rated just three Cardinals in his Top 100 prospects list. None of those three -- Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Zack Cox -- is older than 21, and there's just one full season among them. In Law's organizational rankings, St. Louis came in at a mediocre No. 14, and the key takeaway in his evaluation is that there are plenty of "fifth starters, quality relievers, [and] fourth outfielders."
In other words, there won't be many reinforcements from within. What's worse, given the construct of the team -- a few studs surrounded by marginal role players -- if the Cards are going to go all-in on 2011 while they still have Pujols, any midseason prospect trades would only further deplete a system that can't afford the hit.
Rasmus, though, is a commodity that is both tradable and valuable. He's young and talented enough to bring immediate help to the Cards and future talent to restock their minor leagues. He's also not irreplaceable: Jon Jay may not have the same upside, but he did hit .300 in his first exposure to the bigs, while actually taking PT away from a slumping Rasmus in July and August.
The key here is timing. Right now, Rasmus is seen as a cost-controlled player with limitless five-tool potential, the type of chip that would get 29 other GMs drooling. But if Mozeliak waits too long, Rasmus' tip-of-the-iceberg talents could be exposed as should-have-seen-this-coming flaws. Not to mention, another trade request from Rasmus, who will have to deal with La Russa for at least one more season, would kill the Cardinals' leverage.
And in turn, that could kill not only their 2011 season without Wainwright, but also their future without Pujols.
elpablo21
Supporter
- 102,305
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- Feb 11, 2008
Bedard has been throwing pretty damn good so far in ST. He's got a chance to have a big year coming up
elpablo21
Supporter
- 102,305
- 181,903
- Joined
- Feb 11, 2008
Bedard has been throwing pretty damn good so far in ST. He's got a chance to have a big year coming up
- 13,656
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- Feb 19, 2006
Bedard has been throwing pretty damn good so far in ST. He's got a chance to have a big year coming up
*Checks Calendar*
*See's that it's not 2008*
- 13,656
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- Joined
- Feb 19, 2006
Bedard has been throwing pretty damn good so far in ST. He's got a chance to have a big year coming up
*Checks Calendar*
*See's that it's not 2008*
- 24,937
- 12,736
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- May 30, 2006
He has a good shot at a big year every year... Then his arm falls off.
- 24,937
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- May 30, 2006
He has a good shot at a big year every year... Then his arm falls off.
- 57,886
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- Feb 12, 2005
My guess is this will be Bedards last "big year." He'll probably get comeback player of the year, win 12-15 games hopefully, but then he won't be nothing more than a 10 win pitcher the rest of his injury riddled career.
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- Feb 12, 2005
My guess is this will be Bedards last "big year." He'll probably get comeback player of the year, win 12-15 games hopefully, but then he won't be nothing more than a 10 win pitcher the rest of his injury riddled career.
elpablo21
Supporter
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This year will be different though...I hope
elpablo21
Supporter
- 102,305
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This year will be different though...I hope
- 20,620
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- Sep 27, 2007
the Red Sox are moving their right field fence in 10 feet...insane...
Adrian Gonzalez is gonna go insane
Adrian Gonzalez is gonna go insane
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- Sep 27, 2007
the Red Sox are moving their right field fence in 10 feet...insane...
Adrian Gonzalez is gonna go insane
Adrian Gonzalez is gonna go insane
- 10,095
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- Jan 1, 2009
for what reason? that's ******ed... Ortiz gonna add on 10 HRs lol
- 10,095
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- Jan 1, 2009
for what reason? that's ******ed... Ortiz gonna add on 10 HRs lol
- 20,620
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- Sep 27, 2007
Well the Red Sox said they are doing it to add seats to Fenway...
but it's probably more to boost HR #s
but it's probably more to boost HR #s
- 20,620
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Well the Red Sox said they are doing it to add seats to Fenway...
but it's probably more to boost HR #s
but it's probably more to boost HR #s
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- Apr 16, 2008
http://s289.photobucket.com/albums/ll210/aar1002/?action=view¤t=photo-8.jpg
Indians at rockies
Masterson looked like garbage but pomeranz and chisenhall looked like studs out there
Indians at rockies
Masterson looked like garbage but pomeranz and chisenhall looked like studs out there
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http://s289.photobucket.com/albums/ll210/aar1002/?action=view¤t=photo-8.jpg
Indians at rockies
Masterson looked like garbage but pomeranz and chisenhall looked like studs out there
Indians at rockies
Masterson looked like garbage but pomeranz and chisenhall looked like studs out there
- 12,423
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- Dec 14, 2001
expanded the bull pens. added someting to it. forget what. and i think seats were added. is the wall the same height, like add a foot or 2
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