2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Originally Posted by CP1708

wildKYcat wrote:
did Barry make our old NT baseball HOF that CP started? 
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I was literally just lookin thru my old notes on that yesterday. 
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  I have a notepad that I use here at work and I was keepin tallies in it when I was workin.  I just happened to stumble on the page yesterday after I heard the news.  I couldn't decipher my chicken scratch at the time.  But I wanna say he did have enough votes from what I could tell, but it was close. 

Either way, props to him. 
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We need to rebump that thread.
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Ryan Madson to the Reds. Not sure how I feel about it. We could have probably have had Cordero for less or even Kerry Wood. 
Then we could have used the extra money on a left fielder.

Now the reports are it's a one-year $10 or $11 million deal... Boras comes through again. 
 
Ryan Madson to the Reds. Not sure how I feel about it. We could have probably have had Cordero for less or even Kerry Wood. 
Then we could have used the extra money on a left fielder.

Now the reports are it's a one-year $10 or $11 million deal... Boras comes through again. 
 
I played one year in San Francisco [2002]. I watched Barry Bonds take 500 at-bats, and every single at-bat, he either hit a home run, or hit the ball harder than anyone on earth, or walked," White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski said. "He's the best hitter I've ever seen, and there isn't a close second, not just on this planet, but this galaxy. Righties, lefties, it didn't matter with Barry. Here's how good he was that year. The first game of the season, he hit a homer off Roy Oswalt in Houston to win the game. That gave him 659. He told us, 'I'm not going to hit any more home runs here, I want to tie Willie [Mays, at 660] at home.' The rest of that series, he got his hits, he hit singles and doubles, but no homers. When we got home, he said, 'OK, I'm going to tie Willie today.' And the first at-bat, boom, he went deep. The next day, he came to the park and said, 'Today, I'm going pass Willie.' First at-bat, he hit another homer. I've never seen anything like it."



Crazy.
 
I played one year in San Francisco [2002]. I watched Barry Bonds take 500 at-bats, and every single at-bat, he either hit a home run, or hit the ball harder than anyone on earth, or walked," White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski said. "He's the best hitter I've ever seen, and there isn't a close second, not just on this planet, but this galaxy. Righties, lefties, it didn't matter with Barry. Here's how good he was that year. The first game of the season, he hit a homer off Roy Oswalt in Houston to win the game. That gave him 659. He told us, 'I'm not going to hit any more home runs here, I want to tie Willie [Mays, at 660] at home.' The rest of that series, he got his hits, he hit singles and doubles, but no homers. When we got home, he said, 'OK, I'm going to tie Willie today.' And the first at-bat, boom, he went deep. The next day, he came to the park and said, 'Today, I'm going pass Willie.' First at-bat, he hit another homer. I've never seen anything like it."



Crazy.
 
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@ that Barry story. Dude was one of the greatest hitters/players ever BEFORE he took PEDs. After he took them, dude just became something else entirely.

-HoF voting next time around should be very interesting indeed. That said, I fully expect to be revolted by the results...

-I don't even care if they overpay him, but I'd love for Prince to go to DC. Prince and the on-the-rise Nats could absolutely own this city with all the other perpetually inept sports teams in the area. NL East will be a tough division, though.

Oh, and &%$# Peter Angelos.
 
laugh.gif
@ that Barry story. Dude was one of the greatest hitters/players ever BEFORE he took PEDs. After he took them, dude just became something else entirely.

-HoF voting next time around should be very interesting indeed. That said, I fully expect to be revolted by the results...

-I don't even care if they overpay him, but I'd love for Prince to go to DC. Prince and the on-the-rise Nats could absolutely own this city with all the other perpetually inept sports teams in the area. NL East will be a tough division, though.

Oh, and &%$# Peter Angelos.
 
NL East position rankings.

Spoiler [+]
This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

Prince Fielder's impact on the NL East.

Spoiler [+]
Looking at the offseason so far, one of the more overlooked storylines is just how quiet the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been in the free-agent market. Together, the two biggest spenders in baseball have spent a little more than $8 million on free agents. Last year, that number was $292 million; it was $140 million after the 2009 season and $460 million after 2008.

The rest of the division has been similarly thrifty when going after free agents. The two biggest contracts given out by the Baltimore Orioles were to overseas imports Tsuyoshi Wada and Chen Wei-Yin for a combined $20 million.

In recent years, the AL East has generally been considered the toughest division in baseball. And for good reason -- with the ascendancy of the Tampa Bay Rays in recent years, the division's had three of the best teams in baseball for a while now.

This winter, the headlines have been made by other teams. In the NL East, the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals, two of the teams with the skimpiest payrolls the past decade (the Marlins notoriously so), have aggressively gone after talent this offseason. Miami struck first, bringing in Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle, and picking up Carlos Zambrano, turning the Marlins into a serious playoff contender. The Nats haven't had the same success in the market but acquired Gio Gonzalez, and a healthy Stephen Strasburg is just as good as bringing in a veteran star.

One last big prize remains in the market in Prince Fielder, and the Nationals are now considered the favorite. While there are legitimate concerns about how Fielder will age down the road, the 2012 version should be a major star. And if he ends up in our nation's capital, the AL East's claim as baseball's best division will no longer be so clear-cut.

The ZiPS projection system estimates Fielder's 2012 performance in Washington at .280/.395/.520 and 5.3 wins above replacement (WAR). If you add Fielder to a young, improving core, ZiPS gives a preliminary estimate of 87 wins for Washington, giving the division a fourth team that could easily represent the National League in the 2012 World Series.

Has the NL East caught the AL East for the title of the toughest division in baseball? To answer this question, we need to evaluate the difference in strength between the leagues. The World Series and All-Star Game are a pretty small sample of games, so we have to primarily look at two areas in order to gauge league quality: interleague play and player movement.

In interleague play, the NL went 121-131 in 2011, easily the league's best performance since 2004 and a turnaround from its lackluster record in recent years, the nadir being 98-154 (with a 5.05 ERA) against the AL in 2006. Based on player movement, that difference is even smaller when going back and reprojecting every player who switched leagues in the last three years without any reference to league quality. Doing this suggests an even smaller difference between the two leagues, about two wins per 162 games. Going back to an earlier time frame (2006-2008) yields a much larger difference, seven wins per 162 games, which strongly suggests that the NL's improvement in interleague play is no fluke.

To compare the divisions across baseball as a whole, I took their current ZiPS projected win expectation for 2012 (preliminary, naturally, as there's still a lot of offseason to go) and went with three wins per 162 as the difference in league quality. After doing that, I was able to calculate a rough divisional winning percentage. The AL East comes out at .524, meaning that an average team would have to play .524 ball to be a .500 team in the AL East.

In the end, the AL East still projects to be the toughest division in baseball at .524. The NL East is not far behind, at .518, followed by the AL West (.511), NL East (.494) and the rear brought up by the AL Central (.483) and the NL Central (.474).

Even without Fielder, the Nats currently project at about 84 wins. Not enough to make them the favorite, of course, but still close enough to the top three teams in the division that they can seriously contend with a little good fortune. With four teams with good chances to win the division and make the playoffs, the NL East could be 2012's most exciting race.

Ryan Madson, a steal for Cincy.

Spoiler [+]
The Cincinnati Reds got perhaps the deal of the offseason so far by signing Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million deal, a guaranteed contract that allows Madson to try to demolish any concerns about his ability to handle the ninth inning on a full-time basis and re-enter the free-agent market next winter.

Madson switched his approach in 2011 from a three-pitch mix to a two-pitch mix with the occasional cutter, and his out-pitch changeup became even more devastating along the way. That changeup is one of the best in the majors: He hides the ball well, it looks like his 92-95 mph fastball coming out of his hand and it often has late downward action on it. He's a moderate ground ball pitcher who has had very good success keeping the ball, even balls hit in the air, in the park since he moved to the bullpen, a key trait for a pitcher who'll throw half his innings in a homer-friendly stadium.

He's worth two wins to the Reds, at least, and the risk here to the club is quite low, with the potential for a draft pick in 2013 if he leaves or the chance to keep him for another year at around $12 million to $13 million. (Under the new collective bargaining agreement that's roughly the amount of the one-year qualifying offer needed to recoup compensation picks if a player leaves as a free agent.)

A few readers asked if Madson would have been better served taking the arbitration offer from the Philadelphia Phillies, but I think the answer is pretty clearly "no." Coming off a platform year when his salary was $4.83 million on a contract with an average annual value of $4 million, he might have gotten a raise through arbitration to the $9 million range, but he would have had to base his argument mostly on his 2011 saves total while minimizing his low career total. (This is the lunacy of the arbitration process. I'm just the messenger.) But taking arbitration would have put him in a set-up role in front of Jonathan Papelbon, hurting his market for next offseason and any potential arbitration case the following year. He could easily have incentives with Cincinnati to push his total compensation over $10 million, which would exceed any likely arbitration award anyway.

The big losers here are the Phillies, whose rash overpayment to Papelbon (four years, $50 million) looks absolutely comical in light of every relief signing and trade that has come along since then. Signing relievers to four-year deals is madness in most circumstances, and Papelbon isn't the elite closer to justify an exception to that rule, and the market has otherwise scoffed at reliever contracts of that length. Looking ahead to 2013, the Phillies have committed more than $100 million to just six players, assuming Roy Halladay's contract option vests, a list that doesn't include potential free agents Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino. And the attempted justification for the loss of the Phils' first-round pick for Papelbon -- that they would get a first-rounder back after losing Madson -- was destroyed by the new CBA. They'll get a sandwich pick and a second-rounder instead, leaving them worse off in this year's draft after several major trades have left their system very thin above Class A.

McCourt's last move should be Prince.

Spoiler [+]
Somehow, after all of Frank McCourt's mistakes and missteps, it looks like he's going to make out OK. The property he bought in 2004 -- baseball's blue diamond -- is so durable that it can withstand any type of mishandling.

There are billionaires lining up to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers in a couple of weeks, after the team is put up for auction, because no matter how ugly the McCourts' divorce became, or what an embarrassment it was when the franchise went into bankruptcy, or that the organization faces a lawsuit stemming from the brutal beating of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow last spring, the team remains a model brand.

The Dodgers are to baseball what the beaches are to California. Despite the cracks and chips, this is and always will be the franchise of Jackie Robinson and Sandy Koufax and Vin Scully; it is what Walter O'Malley wanted it to become when he moved the club out of Brooklyn and dropped it onto a hill above Los Angeles. The next owners will ride into Chavez Ravine and be viewed as conquering heroes who will restore the franchise, and somebody is going to pay McCourt a staggering sum for that privilege -- maybe a little more than a billion, maybe a lot more than a billion.

As I wrote here last week: The folks who are bidding for the team are incredibly successful and wealthy and not accustomed to losing. They will go into this process knowing they have to beat other successful billionaires, and it's going to be competitive. Think of the Dodgers as a lone tuna in the midst of a dozen great white sharks; one of them is going to outmuscle the others and hit it hard.

There's one more thing McCourt can do to add to the feeding frenzy, however. He should go out and sign Prince Fielder. Right now.

McCourt did the right thing in signing Matt Kemp to a long-term deal earlier in the offseason, locking up the guy who finished second in the MVP voting; he's a foundation piece. But now McCourt has an opportunity to make the team even more attractive, by jumping on the guy who finished third in the MVP voting -- a slugger who mashed 38 homers and drove in 120 runs last season.

Fielder's talent makes this a unique situation, of course; there aren't a lot of players like him in this era of drug-testing. An NL general manager noted recently that the most coveted commodity in the sport now is not necessarily pitching -- it might be big-time power. "You can't win without pitching," he said. "But it's a lot easier to find pitching these days than someone who can hit 40 homers."

And somehow, on Jan. 11, Fielder is still without a job, because the market forces have worked against him. The New York Yankees normally covet left-handed sluggers like Fielder, but they have Mark Teixeira locked up. The Boston Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez 13 months ago and locked him up to a long-term deal. The Los Angeles Angels gave their $240 million to Albert Pujols. The Miami Marlins were interested in Pujols but continue to say they don't want Fielder; the presumption in the organization is that this is because Pujols is more marketable in the Miami community than Fielder.

Some of the teams linked to Fielder in this offseason seem lukewarm in their interest, for various reasons. The Chicago Cubs are rebuilding, and they have seemed interested in Fielder only at their price -- maybe a five-year or six-year deal. The same goes for the Texas Rangers, who are still haunted by the experience they had investing heavily in one player, Alex Rodriguez; they might like Fielder, but only on their terms. For Texas, he's not a must-have item.

Within the industry, the expectation has been that the Washington Nationals would jump in, but some highly ranked Washington executives are telling others: We are not in the Fielder market. The first year of their seven-year, $126 million investment in Jayson Werth went very badly, and some in the organization are scared by the idea of owing two players $40-45 million. "What if it goes badly?" one official asked rhetorically. "With our budget, it'd wreck us for years."

Similarly, the Seattle Mariners are telling other folks that their reported interest in Fielder has been overstated. The Milwaukee Brewers are interested in keeping him, but Fielder himself has already indicated that he expects to leave. Only Scott Boras, Fielder's agent, truly knows what offers he has, but it would appear that the market affords him little leverage at the moment.

Where, then? Well, if the Dodgers or the New York Mets were on strong footing, either team could be a natural fit. The Mets are still digging out from the Bernie Madoff scandal, prying nickels out from underneath couch cushions to sign the likes of Miguel Batista.

The Dodgers, however, are not that far away from being in an extraordinarily strong position. The next owner may well be in place by the All-Star break, and after some group spends between $1-2 billion for this franchise, the new owner won't suddenly pull back the reins. Instead, the new owner is going to be aggressive. A few weeks ago, Magic Johnson -- part of one of the powerful teams fighting for ownership of the Dodgers -- mused over the phone, with some regret, that this winter's free-agent period is passing by.

Next fall, if he were a Dodgers owner, he said, "At 12:01 a.m., I'd be on the phone" calling the next players the Dodgers would want to target. "This is going to be fun."

And while McCourt has debt -- the franchise has debt -- there are almost no long-term contract obligations besides Kemp. Ted Lilly is signed for a couple of more years, and so is Matt Guerrier. But the Dodgers' budget for 2012 is $90 million, in the same range as the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers.

The Dodgers' next owners are going to get an enormous injection of television revenue after the team's next contract is negotiated, and it figures that the club's payroll will rocket into the same range as that of the Angels, who will be close to $160 million.

If McCourt signed Fielder now, the expenditure wouldn't be beyond the means of the franchise. And while a $25 million annual salary for a first baseman might seem like a lot of money to the average person, remember who is bidding for the team. A $25 million annual expenditure to someone with access to $100 billion is equivalent to five ATM charges for someone making $50,000.

You could call the signing of Fielder a financial pimple, in the big picture, if not for the fact that it could actually make the Dodgers more attractive, more valuable.

The Dodgers might be able to get Fielder for seven years and $175 million, or maybe eight for $192 million. Add Fielder to their lineup, and they could contend for the NL West championship in 2012. They would sell more tickets, draw higher ratings and give the next owners a little more leverage in negotiating that next television contract. Fielder would be to the Dodgers what Shaquille O'Neal was to the Lakers.

McCourt probably flinches reflexively at the idea of spending money these days given the amount of debt he has and considering how many lawsuits he's been involved in. But signing Fielder now would be a smart investment, some gasoline to throw onto what should already be an extremely hot bidding war for the Dodgers.

It's a great opportunity. McCourt should jump on it. Right now.

McCourt settled his dispute with Fox Sports, writes Bill Shaikin. This clears the decks for the auctioning of the team. Tom Barrack is the latest billionaire to join the bidding process.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Bud Selig is staying on, which isn't a surprise to the executives for whom he works. "He was never leaving," said an AL owner. "He loves it."

It's fair to say that Selig has exercised a commissioner's prerogative to change his mind. From Josh Kritz of ESPN Stats & Information:
  • As head of search committee for new commissioner:
  • December 1983: "I don't want to be commissioner." (NY Times)
  • As acting commissioner:
  • November 1993: "This is all very flattering, but I have no interest in becoming permanent commissioner." (USA Today)
  • January 1994: "I have no permanent interest in this job. I have many other things I want to do." (LA Times)
  • December 1997: "I am not and have never been a candidate. I don't know what more I can say about that." (LA Times)
  • As commissioner:
  • July 1998: "Many had said to me they wanted me to stay in some capacity. We argued. The rest is history." (LA Times)
  • November 2001: "[The contract extension] wasn't my idea. I hadn't even thought about it, but [the owners] felt the timing was right." (LA Times)
  • April 2003: "There are other things I really would like to do. I told my wife that I was going to be doing this for two to three months, but it turned into 14 years. I've had a great run." (Orlando Sentinel)
  • August 2004 (at time of second extension): "In September 1992 [when he became acting commissioner], my wife asked how long it would be, and I said, 'Two to four months.' It's the longest two to four months in history." (AP)
  • December 2006: "I plan to retire. My contract runs for the next three-plus years. I'll be 75 years of age and I want to teach and write a book and do some other things." (Reuters)
  • January 2008: "This is clearly it. I could say this without equivocation. ... When this is over, I'm going to be 78 years old." (AP)
• The Mets are close to raising $100 million in minority shares, writes Andy Martino.

• If you weren't convinced by the Sean Marshall trade that the Reds were loading up for 2012, well, maybe the signing of Ryan Madson -- for $8.5 million, as Jerry Crasnick reports -- puts it over the top for you; Cincinnati has a chance to have an excellent bullpen.

[h4]Top closer's of 2011[/h4]
The closers with the best save percentages in MLB last season
[table][tr][th=""]
Pitcher
[/th][th=""]
Pct.
[/th][th=""]
Sv-Opps
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Jose Valverde
[/td][td]
100.0
[/td][td]
49-49
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
John Axford
[/td][td]
95.8
[/td][td]
46-48
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Ryan Madson
[/td][td]
94.1
[/td][td]
32-34
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Andrew Bailey
[/td][td]
92.3
[/td][td]
24-26
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
J.J. Putz
[/td][td]
91.8
[/td][td]
45-49
[/td][/tr][/table]

From ESPN Stats & Info: In his first season as a full-time closer, Madson had the second-best save percentage in the NL (32-of-34, 94.1 percent), just behind John Axford (46-of-48, 95.
glasses.gif
.

The Reds were tied for 10th in blown saves last season with 22. The Philadelphia Phillies, who Madson closed for last season, had eight blown saves, the fewest in the majors.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Howard Kendrick says staying with the Angels was his priority, as Lance Pugmire writes.

2. The Phillies cut John Bowker, so he could pursue other opportunities.

3. Scott Boras says the Tampa Bay Rays remain in play for Carlos Pena and Johnny Damon.

4. The Toronto Blue Jays are still looking for help, writes Richard Griffin.

5. The Kansas City Royals named their minor league coaches.

6. Miguel Batista signed with the Mets.

7. The Rangers raised their ticket prices.

8. The Rangers are going to give some of their prospects a shot in spring training.

9. A top Detroit Tigers prospect has been invited to spring training.

10. The Tigers shouldn't trade top prospects, writes Lynn Henning, who notes that Dave Dombrowski has told Theo Epstein no when the Cubs GM has discussed Matt Garza.

11. Juan Nicasio is already facing hitters, and is on track for spring training -- a great development for him, of course, but also for the Colorado Rockies.

12. The Mariners signed Aaron Heilman, as Larry Stone writes.

13. Carlos Gomez agreed to terms, writes Adam McCalvy.

14. It's time for the Red Sox to step up and get a starting pitcher, writes Michael Silverman.

15. Dan Duquette talked about some of the changes the Baltimore Orioles have made.
 
NL East position rankings.

Spoiler [+]
This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

Prince Fielder's impact on the NL East.

Spoiler [+]
Looking at the offseason so far, one of the more overlooked storylines is just how quiet the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been in the free-agent market. Together, the two biggest spenders in baseball have spent a little more than $8 million on free agents. Last year, that number was $292 million; it was $140 million after the 2009 season and $460 million after 2008.

The rest of the division has been similarly thrifty when going after free agents. The two biggest contracts given out by the Baltimore Orioles were to overseas imports Tsuyoshi Wada and Chen Wei-Yin for a combined $20 million.

In recent years, the AL East has generally been considered the toughest division in baseball. And for good reason -- with the ascendancy of the Tampa Bay Rays in recent years, the division's had three of the best teams in baseball for a while now.

This winter, the headlines have been made by other teams. In the NL East, the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals, two of the teams with the skimpiest payrolls the past decade (the Marlins notoriously so), have aggressively gone after talent this offseason. Miami struck first, bringing in Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle, and picking up Carlos Zambrano, turning the Marlins into a serious playoff contender. The Nats haven't had the same success in the market but acquired Gio Gonzalez, and a healthy Stephen Strasburg is just as good as bringing in a veteran star.

One last big prize remains in the market in Prince Fielder, and the Nationals are now considered the favorite. While there are legitimate concerns about how Fielder will age down the road, the 2012 version should be a major star. And if he ends up in our nation's capital, the AL East's claim as baseball's best division will no longer be so clear-cut.

The ZiPS projection system estimates Fielder's 2012 performance in Washington at .280/.395/.520 and 5.3 wins above replacement (WAR). If you add Fielder to a young, improving core, ZiPS gives a preliminary estimate of 87 wins for Washington, giving the division a fourth team that could easily represent the National League in the 2012 World Series.

Has the NL East caught the AL East for the title of the toughest division in baseball? To answer this question, we need to evaluate the difference in strength between the leagues. The World Series and All-Star Game are a pretty small sample of games, so we have to primarily look at two areas in order to gauge league quality: interleague play and player movement.

In interleague play, the NL went 121-131 in 2011, easily the league's best performance since 2004 and a turnaround from its lackluster record in recent years, the nadir being 98-154 (with a 5.05 ERA) against the AL in 2006. Based on player movement, that difference is even smaller when going back and reprojecting every player who switched leagues in the last three years without any reference to league quality. Doing this suggests an even smaller difference between the two leagues, about two wins per 162 games. Going back to an earlier time frame (2006-2008) yields a much larger difference, seven wins per 162 games, which strongly suggests that the NL's improvement in interleague play is no fluke.

To compare the divisions across baseball as a whole, I took their current ZiPS projected win expectation for 2012 (preliminary, naturally, as there's still a lot of offseason to go) and went with three wins per 162 as the difference in league quality. After doing that, I was able to calculate a rough divisional winning percentage. The AL East comes out at .524, meaning that an average team would have to play .524 ball to be a .500 team in the AL East.

In the end, the AL East still projects to be the toughest division in baseball at .524. The NL East is not far behind, at .518, followed by the AL West (.511), NL East (.494) and the rear brought up by the AL Central (.483) and the NL Central (.474).

Even without Fielder, the Nats currently project at about 84 wins. Not enough to make them the favorite, of course, but still close enough to the top three teams in the division that they can seriously contend with a little good fortune. With four teams with good chances to win the division and make the playoffs, the NL East could be 2012's most exciting race.

Ryan Madson, a steal for Cincy.

Spoiler [+]
The Cincinnati Reds got perhaps the deal of the offseason so far by signing Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million deal, a guaranteed contract that allows Madson to try to demolish any concerns about his ability to handle the ninth inning on a full-time basis and re-enter the free-agent market next winter.

Madson switched his approach in 2011 from a three-pitch mix to a two-pitch mix with the occasional cutter, and his out-pitch changeup became even more devastating along the way. That changeup is one of the best in the majors: He hides the ball well, it looks like his 92-95 mph fastball coming out of his hand and it often has late downward action on it. He's a moderate ground ball pitcher who has had very good success keeping the ball, even balls hit in the air, in the park since he moved to the bullpen, a key trait for a pitcher who'll throw half his innings in a homer-friendly stadium.

He's worth two wins to the Reds, at least, and the risk here to the club is quite low, with the potential for a draft pick in 2013 if he leaves or the chance to keep him for another year at around $12 million to $13 million. (Under the new collective bargaining agreement that's roughly the amount of the one-year qualifying offer needed to recoup compensation picks if a player leaves as a free agent.)

A few readers asked if Madson would have been better served taking the arbitration offer from the Philadelphia Phillies, but I think the answer is pretty clearly "no." Coming off a platform year when his salary was $4.83 million on a contract with an average annual value of $4 million, he might have gotten a raise through arbitration to the $9 million range, but he would have had to base his argument mostly on his 2011 saves total while minimizing his low career total. (This is the lunacy of the arbitration process. I'm just the messenger.) But taking arbitration would have put him in a set-up role in front of Jonathan Papelbon, hurting his market for next offseason and any potential arbitration case the following year. He could easily have incentives with Cincinnati to push his total compensation over $10 million, which would exceed any likely arbitration award anyway.

The big losers here are the Phillies, whose rash overpayment to Papelbon (four years, $50 million) looks absolutely comical in light of every relief signing and trade that has come along since then. Signing relievers to four-year deals is madness in most circumstances, and Papelbon isn't the elite closer to justify an exception to that rule, and the market has otherwise scoffed at reliever contracts of that length. Looking ahead to 2013, the Phillies have committed more than $100 million to just six players, assuming Roy Halladay's contract option vests, a list that doesn't include potential free agents Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino. And the attempted justification for the loss of the Phils' first-round pick for Papelbon -- that they would get a first-rounder back after losing Madson -- was destroyed by the new CBA. They'll get a sandwich pick and a second-rounder instead, leaving them worse off in this year's draft after several major trades have left their system very thin above Class A.

McCourt's last move should be Prince.

Spoiler [+]
Somehow, after all of Frank McCourt's mistakes and missteps, it looks like he's going to make out OK. The property he bought in 2004 -- baseball's blue diamond -- is so durable that it can withstand any type of mishandling.

There are billionaires lining up to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers in a couple of weeks, after the team is put up for auction, because no matter how ugly the McCourts' divorce became, or what an embarrassment it was when the franchise went into bankruptcy, or that the organization faces a lawsuit stemming from the brutal beating of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow last spring, the team remains a model brand.

The Dodgers are to baseball what the beaches are to California. Despite the cracks and chips, this is and always will be the franchise of Jackie Robinson and Sandy Koufax and Vin Scully; it is what Walter O'Malley wanted it to become when he moved the club out of Brooklyn and dropped it onto a hill above Los Angeles. The next owners will ride into Chavez Ravine and be viewed as conquering heroes who will restore the franchise, and somebody is going to pay McCourt a staggering sum for that privilege -- maybe a little more than a billion, maybe a lot more than a billion.

As I wrote here last week: The folks who are bidding for the team are incredibly successful and wealthy and not accustomed to losing. They will go into this process knowing they have to beat other successful billionaires, and it's going to be competitive. Think of the Dodgers as a lone tuna in the midst of a dozen great white sharks; one of them is going to outmuscle the others and hit it hard.

There's one more thing McCourt can do to add to the feeding frenzy, however. He should go out and sign Prince Fielder. Right now.

McCourt did the right thing in signing Matt Kemp to a long-term deal earlier in the offseason, locking up the guy who finished second in the MVP voting; he's a foundation piece. But now McCourt has an opportunity to make the team even more attractive, by jumping on the guy who finished third in the MVP voting -- a slugger who mashed 38 homers and drove in 120 runs last season.

Fielder's talent makes this a unique situation, of course; there aren't a lot of players like him in this era of drug-testing. An NL general manager noted recently that the most coveted commodity in the sport now is not necessarily pitching -- it might be big-time power. "You can't win without pitching," he said. "But it's a lot easier to find pitching these days than someone who can hit 40 homers."

And somehow, on Jan. 11, Fielder is still without a job, because the market forces have worked against him. The New York Yankees normally covet left-handed sluggers like Fielder, but they have Mark Teixeira locked up. The Boston Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez 13 months ago and locked him up to a long-term deal. The Los Angeles Angels gave their $240 million to Albert Pujols. The Miami Marlins were interested in Pujols but continue to say they don't want Fielder; the presumption in the organization is that this is because Pujols is more marketable in the Miami community than Fielder.

Some of the teams linked to Fielder in this offseason seem lukewarm in their interest, for various reasons. The Chicago Cubs are rebuilding, and they have seemed interested in Fielder only at their price -- maybe a five-year or six-year deal. The same goes for the Texas Rangers, who are still haunted by the experience they had investing heavily in one player, Alex Rodriguez; they might like Fielder, but only on their terms. For Texas, he's not a must-have item.

Within the industry, the expectation has been that the Washington Nationals would jump in, but some highly ranked Washington executives are telling others: We are not in the Fielder market. The first year of their seven-year, $126 million investment in Jayson Werth went very badly, and some in the organization are scared by the idea of owing two players $40-45 million. "What if it goes badly?" one official asked rhetorically. "With our budget, it'd wreck us for years."

Similarly, the Seattle Mariners are telling other folks that their reported interest in Fielder has been overstated. The Milwaukee Brewers are interested in keeping him, but Fielder himself has already indicated that he expects to leave. Only Scott Boras, Fielder's agent, truly knows what offers he has, but it would appear that the market affords him little leverage at the moment.

Where, then? Well, if the Dodgers or the New York Mets were on strong footing, either team could be a natural fit. The Mets are still digging out from the Bernie Madoff scandal, prying nickels out from underneath couch cushions to sign the likes of Miguel Batista.

The Dodgers, however, are not that far away from being in an extraordinarily strong position. The next owner may well be in place by the All-Star break, and after some group spends between $1-2 billion for this franchise, the new owner won't suddenly pull back the reins. Instead, the new owner is going to be aggressive. A few weeks ago, Magic Johnson -- part of one of the powerful teams fighting for ownership of the Dodgers -- mused over the phone, with some regret, that this winter's free-agent period is passing by.

Next fall, if he were a Dodgers owner, he said, "At 12:01 a.m., I'd be on the phone" calling the next players the Dodgers would want to target. "This is going to be fun."

And while McCourt has debt -- the franchise has debt -- there are almost no long-term contract obligations besides Kemp. Ted Lilly is signed for a couple of more years, and so is Matt Guerrier. But the Dodgers' budget for 2012 is $90 million, in the same range as the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers.

The Dodgers' next owners are going to get an enormous injection of television revenue after the team's next contract is negotiated, and it figures that the club's payroll will rocket into the same range as that of the Angels, who will be close to $160 million.

If McCourt signed Fielder now, the expenditure wouldn't be beyond the means of the franchise. And while a $25 million annual salary for a first baseman might seem like a lot of money to the average person, remember who is bidding for the team. A $25 million annual expenditure to someone with access to $100 billion is equivalent to five ATM charges for someone making $50,000.

You could call the signing of Fielder a financial pimple, in the big picture, if not for the fact that it could actually make the Dodgers more attractive, more valuable.

The Dodgers might be able to get Fielder for seven years and $175 million, or maybe eight for $192 million. Add Fielder to their lineup, and they could contend for the NL West championship in 2012. They would sell more tickets, draw higher ratings and give the next owners a little more leverage in negotiating that next television contract. Fielder would be to the Dodgers what Shaquille O'Neal was to the Lakers.

McCourt probably flinches reflexively at the idea of spending money these days given the amount of debt he has and considering how many lawsuits he's been involved in. But signing Fielder now would be a smart investment, some gasoline to throw onto what should already be an extremely hot bidding war for the Dodgers.

It's a great opportunity. McCourt should jump on it. Right now.

McCourt settled his dispute with Fox Sports, writes Bill Shaikin. This clears the decks for the auctioning of the team. Tom Barrack is the latest billionaire to join the bidding process.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Bud Selig is staying on, which isn't a surprise to the executives for whom he works. "He was never leaving," said an AL owner. "He loves it."

It's fair to say that Selig has exercised a commissioner's prerogative to change his mind. From Josh Kritz of ESPN Stats & Information:
  • As head of search committee for new commissioner:
  • December 1983: "I don't want to be commissioner." (NY Times)
  • As acting commissioner:
  • November 1993: "This is all very flattering, but I have no interest in becoming permanent commissioner." (USA Today)
  • January 1994: "I have no permanent interest in this job. I have many other things I want to do." (LA Times)
  • December 1997: "I am not and have never been a candidate. I don't know what more I can say about that." (LA Times)
  • As commissioner:
  • July 1998: "Many had said to me they wanted me to stay in some capacity. We argued. The rest is history." (LA Times)
  • November 2001: "[The contract extension] wasn't my idea. I hadn't even thought about it, but [the owners] felt the timing was right." (LA Times)
  • April 2003: "There are other things I really would like to do. I told my wife that I was going to be doing this for two to three months, but it turned into 14 years. I've had a great run." (Orlando Sentinel)
  • August 2004 (at time of second extension): "In September 1992 [when he became acting commissioner], my wife asked how long it would be, and I said, 'Two to four months.' It's the longest two to four months in history." (AP)
  • December 2006: "I plan to retire. My contract runs for the next three-plus years. I'll be 75 years of age and I want to teach and write a book and do some other things." (Reuters)
  • January 2008: "This is clearly it. I could say this without equivocation. ... When this is over, I'm going to be 78 years old." (AP)
• The Mets are close to raising $100 million in minority shares, writes Andy Martino.

• If you weren't convinced by the Sean Marshall trade that the Reds were loading up for 2012, well, maybe the signing of Ryan Madson -- for $8.5 million, as Jerry Crasnick reports -- puts it over the top for you; Cincinnati has a chance to have an excellent bullpen.

[h4]Top closer's of 2011[/h4]
The closers with the best save percentages in MLB last season
[table][tr][th=""]
Pitcher
[/th][th=""]
Pct.
[/th][th=""]
Sv-Opps
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Jose Valverde
[/td][td]
100.0
[/td][td]
49-49
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
John Axford
[/td][td]
95.8
[/td][td]
46-48
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Ryan Madson
[/td][td]
94.1
[/td][td]
32-34
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Andrew Bailey
[/td][td]
92.3
[/td][td]
24-26
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
J.J. Putz
[/td][td]
91.8
[/td][td]
45-49
[/td][/tr][/table]

From ESPN Stats & Info: In his first season as a full-time closer, Madson had the second-best save percentage in the NL (32-of-34, 94.1 percent), just behind John Axford (46-of-48, 95.
glasses.gif
.

The Reds were tied for 10th in blown saves last season with 22. The Philadelphia Phillies, who Madson closed for last season, had eight blown saves, the fewest in the majors.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Howard Kendrick says staying with the Angels was his priority, as Lance Pugmire writes.

2. The Phillies cut John Bowker, so he could pursue other opportunities.

3. Scott Boras says the Tampa Bay Rays remain in play for Carlos Pena and Johnny Damon.

4. The Toronto Blue Jays are still looking for help, writes Richard Griffin.

5. The Kansas City Royals named their minor league coaches.

6. Miguel Batista signed with the Mets.

7. The Rangers raised their ticket prices.

8. The Rangers are going to give some of their prospects a shot in spring training.

9. A top Detroit Tigers prospect has been invited to spring training.

10. The Tigers shouldn't trade top prospects, writes Lynn Henning, who notes that Dave Dombrowski has told Theo Epstein no when the Cubs GM has discussed Matt Garza.

11. Juan Nicasio is already facing hitters, and is on track for spring training -- a great development for him, of course, but also for the Colorado Rockies.

12. The Mariners signed Aaron Heilman, as Larry Stone writes.

13. Carlos Gomez agreed to terms, writes Adam McCalvy.

14. It's time for the Red Sox to step up and get a starting pitcher, writes Michael Silverman.

15. Dan Duquette talked about some of the changes the Baltimore Orioles have made.
 
Welcome to the Trop, Luke Scott.

Spoiler [+]
While fans of large market teams get to look forward to the Winter Meetings, us small-market fans have a different, less heralded offseason event to look forward to each year: the Mid-January Bargain Bin Shopping Spree! At this point of the offseason, players that haven’t yet signed with a team start to feel pressure to sign — Spring Training begins in around a month, after all — and there are normally some good bargains that can be found on the market. Ryan Madson appears to be this year’s first victim, although I’m sure there will be many more cheap deals signed in the coming weeks.

One of the most intriguing potential buy-low signings available in this year’s Bargain Bin is Luke Scott. After hitting 27 homeruns in 2010 and posting a .387 wOBA, Scott suffered through a number of injuries last season and eventually had season-ending shoulder surgery in July. He was non-tendered by the Orioles earlier this offseason, and due to his age (turning 34 in June) and injury history, he seems like a good candidate for a cheap one-year deal with incentives.

Dan Connolly from the Baltimore Sun has just confirmed that the Tampa Bay Rays have signed Scott to a one year deal with an option for a second (pending a physical), which would seem to confirm our brief surface analysis: he’s a good buy low candidate, and could provide some cheap power at DH. But on digging into his profile more, there is one reason we might want to temper our expectations for Luke Scott: Tropicana Field.

Camden Yards may not get much publicity as a hitter’s park, but it is a dreamhouse for left-handed hitters. Last season, Camden Yards boosted overall offensive performance for left-handed hitters by around 4%; even with its short right-field porch, Yankee Stadium only clocked in at 3%. The majority of this boost came in the power department, as Camden increased homeruns for left-handed hitters by 18%. That right field wall may be high, but that doesn’t appear to be slowing anyone down.

Meanwhile, Tropicana Field is the most difficult park in the AL East for left-handed hitters…and it’s particularly difficult for left-handed power hitters. The Trop suppresses homeruns from lefties at around an 11% clip, as the right-field wall is at a sharp angle and reaches 380-390 feet in right-center.

For a quick and dirty look at how the Trop may impact Scott’s power, here are his doubles and homeruns from Camden Yards plotted onto the Trop’s dimensions.



Click to enlarge.
Plots courtesy of Katron.org.

Remember, these batted ball locations are taken from Gameday, so they shouldn’t be assumed to be 100% accurate. But even if you assume there’s some error in those plots, it still suggests that Scott will lose some homeruns as a Ray. His drives to center field and left field may turn into doubles or outs, which could drive his overall value down lower than we’d expect.

The effect of Camden Yards might also show up in another form: Scott’s home/road splits. Ever since joining the Orioles in 2007, Scott has performed considerably better at home than on the road. For example, in 2010, he had a 188 wRC+ in Camden Yards and an 88 wRC+ playing elsewhere. I normally don’t put much stock in home/road splits, but Scott showed this tendency every year during his time in Baltimore, and the cause of the drop seemed to have to do mainly with a loss of power: .333 ISO at home, .164 ISO on the road. Then again, Scott also appears to have hit the ball less solidly on the road overall — .345 BABIP at home, .261 on the road — so it’s tough to say how much of an effect the dimensions of Camden Yards have had on his power.

Luke Scott does have tremendous power potential, and he will surely add some much needed left-handed thump to the Rays’ lineup. However, there’s a reason that he’s coming at a bargain price; there are a number of question marks surrounding him — his shoulder, his age, his power — so his transition to Tropicana Field may not be the smoothest.

But when you’re operating on a small budget, you can’t afford to be too choosy. As the Rays know all too well, mitigated risk is the name of the game.

Madson to Cincinnati.

Spoiler [+]
Walt Jocketty and his Cincinnati Reds have signaled to the baseball community that they believe the NL Central to be ripe for the taking in 2012.

The organization has been extremely bold this offseason. They opted to leverage several of their young, valuable assets — namely Yonder Alonso, Travis Wood, and Yasmani Grandal — to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, in hopes of complementing a potent offense that posted the fourth-best team wOBA in the league last season and catapulting the team into the postseason.

Cincinnati ratcheted up that aggressiveness even further on Tuesday evening by inking closer Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5M contract.

In many ways, this is an overpay by the Reds. According to the WAR-to-dollars conversion, Madson has never been worth $8.5M in a single season. Not only has Madson never been that valuable in a single season, but also only seven relievers were worth at least $8.5M last year: Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Sean Marshall, David Robertson, Mariano Rivera, Greg Holland, and Joel Hanrahan. Madson did approach that amount last season — as his +1.7 WAR estimates open-market value at $7.6M — but it is simply uncommon for any reliever be worth that much in a single season.

As has been illustrated countless times amongst the sabermetric community, relievers do not provide as much value as an everyday position player or a starting pitcher. For example, the most innings a reliever threw last year was 93 innings by Alfredo Aceves, while 137 starting pitchers threw at least 100 innings. The overall impact is lessened due to fewer opportunities.

Despite that fact, closers are still paid top dollar on the market. It is a ugly truth in today’s baseball economy. So when evaluating a closer’s contract, it is perhaps more informative to compare that contract to the other free agent contracts given to closers during that same offseason rather than by WAR and that corresponding monetary value, because the latter will almost always result in the same conclusion: overpay.

Here are the contracts given out to closers this offseason:
[table][tr][th=""]Closer[/th][th=""]Years[/th][th=""]Contract[/th][th=""]2011 FIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Papelbon[/td][td]4[/td][td]$50M[/td][td]1.53[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Madson[/td][td]1[/td][td]$8.5M[/td][td]2.25[/td][/tr][tr][td]Heath Bell[/td][td]3[/td][td]$27M[/td][td]3.23[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Valverde[/td][td]1[/td][td]$9M[/td][td]3.55[/td][/tr][tr][td]Frank Francisco[/td][td]2[/td][td]$12M[/td][td]3.80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Nathan[/td][td]2[/td][td]$14.75M[/td][td]4.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Matt Capps[/td][td]1[/td][td]$4.75M[/td][td]4.75[/td][/tr][/table]
In comparison to the rest of the closer’s market this winter, Cincinnati seems to have done a wonderful job guaranteeing the second-lowest amount of money to the second-best available closer. The only closer to get less guaranteed money is Matt Capps, who was terrible for the Twins last season.

The Cincinnati Reds may have overpaid Ryan Madson in terms of the amount of wins he is likely to provide in 2012, but by isolating the closer’s market, the Reds made out like bandits by signing Madson to a one-year, $8.5M deal. After all, he is the exact same pitcher who almost signed a four-year, $44M deal with the Phillies earlier in the offseason before that fell apart at the last moment.

With Madson now in the saddle as the closer and Sean Marshall able to remain in the set-up role, Walt Jocketty has fashioned what should be one of the best bullpens in the league next season. At the very least, it will be significantly better than the 2011 bullpen for the Reds.

Ryan Madson (+1.7 WAR) replaces Francisco Cordero (+0.1 WAR) = +1.6 WAR gain
Sean Marshall (+2.8 WAR) replaces Nick Masset (+0.6 WAR) = +2.2 WAR gain

Net Gain = +3.8 WAR

Thus, Madson and Marshall — if their respective performances remain similar in 2012 — should provide Cincinnati with a four-win increase in the back-end of their bullpen alone. This does not even include the natural improvements that will occur by shifting Masset, Bill Bray, and perhaps even Aroldis Chapman to the middle innings, where all three will be above-average.

Signing an established closer generally means having to overpay, which the Reds did do. In the context of the specific closer’s market this winter, though, the Reds signed arguably the second-best closer on a one-year, low-risk deal. Not only is the contract extremely team-friendly compared to Madson’s peers, but the Reds’ bullpen is significantly improved for the 2012 season and could legitimately become the best bullpen in the league, outside of Atlanta.

Larry Walker and the HOF.

Spoiler [+]
Let me first preface this column by suggesting that I’m no great Hall of Fame historian; I don’t know as much about the history of this great game as my colleagues.

Today I seek to get a good feel whether or not Larry Walker is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. Indeed, much of my gravitation towards Walker is derived from his playing era; my baseball formative years started around 1993, which incidentally coincides with almost the exact time Walker rose to prominence.

Prior to researching for this column, in my view, Walker was a Hall of Famer. I guess you could say I’m going to either convince myself he belongs, or disband my #Walker4HOF campaign altogether. Nonetheless, it’s a case study in journaling the progress of determining one’s HOF credentials. Let us begin.

Monday’s BBWAA announcement that Barry Larkin would join Ron Santo in the 2012 class in the Hall of Fame brought few surprises in terms of overall balloting. Indeed, it’d be nice if Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell, among others, would be joining Larkin and the spirit of Santo on that glorious late-July afternoon, but that’s neither here nor there.

Caught somewhere between the Raineses and Radkes of the world was Larry Walker, whom in his first year of eligibility had garnered just under a quarter of the vote (22.9 percent). It’s certainly not the kiss of death for the burly British Columbian; there’s a growing sentiment that Raines will eventually get the call as one of the best leadoff hitters in recent memory, and he too was featured on fewer than a quarter of the ballots in his first dance back in 2008.

But rather than getting caught up too much in comparisons, let’s really dig into where Walker stands among his comrades — those residing in Cooperstown or elsewhere — before letting the reader decide which route they’d take as a voter.

The BBWAA dictates the following:
“Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
Click to expand...
 
Welcome to the Trop, Luke Scott.

Spoiler [+]
While fans of large market teams get to look forward to the Winter Meetings, us small-market fans have a different, less heralded offseason event to look forward to each year: the Mid-January Bargain Bin Shopping Spree! At this point of the offseason, players that haven’t yet signed with a team start to feel pressure to sign — Spring Training begins in around a month, after all — and there are normally some good bargains that can be found on the market. Ryan Madson appears to be this year’s first victim, although I’m sure there will be many more cheap deals signed in the coming weeks.

One of the most intriguing potential buy-low signings available in this year’s Bargain Bin is Luke Scott. After hitting 27 homeruns in 2010 and posting a .387 wOBA, Scott suffered through a number of injuries last season and eventually had season-ending shoulder surgery in July. He was non-tendered by the Orioles earlier this offseason, and due to his age (turning 34 in June) and injury history, he seems like a good candidate for a cheap one-year deal with incentives.

Dan Connolly from the Baltimore Sun has just confirmed that the Tampa Bay Rays have signed Scott to a one year deal with an option for a second (pending a physical), which would seem to confirm our brief surface analysis: he’s a good buy low candidate, and could provide some cheap power at DH. But on digging into his profile more, there is one reason we might want to temper our expectations for Luke Scott: Tropicana Field.

Camden Yards may not get much publicity as a hitter’s park, but it is a dreamhouse for left-handed hitters. Last season, Camden Yards boosted overall offensive performance for left-handed hitters by around 4%; even with its short right-field porch, Yankee Stadium only clocked in at 3%. The majority of this boost came in the power department, as Camden increased homeruns for left-handed hitters by 18%. That right field wall may be high, but that doesn’t appear to be slowing anyone down.

Meanwhile, Tropicana Field is the most difficult park in the AL East for left-handed hitters…and it’s particularly difficult for left-handed power hitters. The Trop suppresses homeruns from lefties at around an 11% clip, as the right-field wall is at a sharp angle and reaches 380-390 feet in right-center.

For a quick and dirty look at how the Trop may impact Scott’s power, here are his doubles and homeruns from Camden Yards plotted onto the Trop’s dimensions.



Click to enlarge.
Plots courtesy of Katron.org.

Remember, these batted ball locations are taken from Gameday, so they shouldn’t be assumed to be 100% accurate. But even if you assume there’s some error in those plots, it still suggests that Scott will lose some homeruns as a Ray. His drives to center field and left field may turn into doubles or outs, which could drive his overall value down lower than we’d expect.

The effect of Camden Yards might also show up in another form: Scott’s home/road splits. Ever since joining the Orioles in 2007, Scott has performed considerably better at home than on the road. For example, in 2010, he had a 188 wRC+ in Camden Yards and an 88 wRC+ playing elsewhere. I normally don’t put much stock in home/road splits, but Scott showed this tendency every year during his time in Baltimore, and the cause of the drop seemed to have to do mainly with a loss of power: .333 ISO at home, .164 ISO on the road. Then again, Scott also appears to have hit the ball less solidly on the road overall — .345 BABIP at home, .261 on the road — so it’s tough to say how much of an effect the dimensions of Camden Yards have had on his power.

Luke Scott does have tremendous power potential, and he will surely add some much needed left-handed thump to the Rays’ lineup. However, there’s a reason that he’s coming at a bargain price; there are a number of question marks surrounding him — his shoulder, his age, his power — so his transition to Tropicana Field may not be the smoothest.

But when you’re operating on a small budget, you can’t afford to be too choosy. As the Rays know all too well, mitigated risk is the name of the game.

Madson to Cincinnati.

Spoiler [+]
Walt Jocketty and his Cincinnati Reds have signaled to the baseball community that they believe the NL Central to be ripe for the taking in 2012.

The organization has been extremely bold this offseason. They opted to leverage several of their young, valuable assets — namely Yonder Alonso, Travis Wood, and Yasmani Grandal — to acquire Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, in hopes of complementing a potent offense that posted the fourth-best team wOBA in the league last season and catapulting the team into the postseason.

Cincinnati ratcheted up that aggressiveness even further on Tuesday evening by inking closer Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5M contract.

In many ways, this is an overpay by the Reds. According to the WAR-to-dollars conversion, Madson has never been worth $8.5M in a single season. Not only has Madson never been that valuable in a single season, but also only seven relievers were worth at least $8.5M last year: Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, Sean Marshall, David Robertson, Mariano Rivera, Greg Holland, and Joel Hanrahan. Madson did approach that amount last season — as his +1.7 WAR estimates open-market value at $7.6M — but it is simply uncommon for any reliever be worth that much in a single season.

As has been illustrated countless times amongst the sabermetric community, relievers do not provide as much value as an everyday position player or a starting pitcher. For example, the most innings a reliever threw last year was 93 innings by Alfredo Aceves, while 137 starting pitchers threw at least 100 innings. The overall impact is lessened due to fewer opportunities.

Despite that fact, closers are still paid top dollar on the market. It is a ugly truth in today’s baseball economy. So when evaluating a closer’s contract, it is perhaps more informative to compare that contract to the other free agent contracts given to closers during that same offseason rather than by WAR and that corresponding monetary value, because the latter will almost always result in the same conclusion: overpay.

Here are the contracts given out to closers this offseason:
[table][tr][th=""]Closer[/th][th=""]Years[/th][th=""]Contract[/th][th=""]2011 FIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Papelbon[/td][td]4[/td][td]$50M[/td][td]1.53[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Madson[/td][td]1[/td][td]$8.5M[/td][td]2.25[/td][/tr][tr][td]Heath Bell[/td][td]3[/td][td]$27M[/td][td]3.23[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Valverde[/td][td]1[/td][td]$9M[/td][td]3.55[/td][/tr][tr][td]Frank Francisco[/td][td]2[/td][td]$12M[/td][td]3.80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Nathan[/td][td]2[/td][td]$14.75M[/td][td]4.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Matt Capps[/td][td]1[/td][td]$4.75M[/td][td]4.75[/td][/tr][/table]
In comparison to the rest of the closer’s market this winter, Cincinnati seems to have done a wonderful job guaranteeing the second-lowest amount of money to the second-best available closer. The only closer to get less guaranteed money is Matt Capps, who was terrible for the Twins last season.

The Cincinnati Reds may have overpaid Ryan Madson in terms of the amount of wins he is likely to provide in 2012, but by isolating the closer’s market, the Reds made out like bandits by signing Madson to a one-year, $8.5M deal. After all, he is the exact same pitcher who almost signed a four-year, $44M deal with the Phillies earlier in the offseason before that fell apart at the last moment.

With Madson now in the saddle as the closer and Sean Marshall able to remain in the set-up role, Walt Jocketty has fashioned what should be one of the best bullpens in the league next season. At the very least, it will be significantly better than the 2011 bullpen for the Reds.

Ryan Madson (+1.7 WAR) replaces Francisco Cordero (+0.1 WAR) = +1.6 WAR gain
Sean Marshall (+2.8 WAR) replaces Nick Masset (+0.6 WAR) = +2.2 WAR gain

Net Gain = +3.8 WAR

Thus, Madson and Marshall — if their respective performances remain similar in 2012 — should provide Cincinnati with a four-win increase in the back-end of their bullpen alone. This does not even include the natural improvements that will occur by shifting Masset, Bill Bray, and perhaps even Aroldis Chapman to the middle innings, where all three will be above-average.

Signing an established closer generally means having to overpay, which the Reds did do. In the context of the specific closer’s market this winter, though, the Reds signed arguably the second-best closer on a one-year, low-risk deal. Not only is the contract extremely team-friendly compared to Madson’s peers, but the Reds’ bullpen is significantly improved for the 2012 season and could legitimately become the best bullpen in the league, outside of Atlanta.

Larry Walker and the HOF.

Spoiler [+]
Let me first preface this column by suggesting that I’m no great Hall of Fame historian; I don’t know as much about the history of this great game as my colleagues.

Today I seek to get a good feel whether or not Larry Walker is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. Indeed, much of my gravitation towards Walker is derived from his playing era; my baseball formative years started around 1993, which incidentally coincides with almost the exact time Walker rose to prominence.

Prior to researching for this column, in my view, Walker was a Hall of Famer. I guess you could say I’m going to either convince myself he belongs, or disband my #Walker4HOF campaign altogether. Nonetheless, it’s a case study in journaling the progress of determining one’s HOF credentials. Let us begin.

Monday’s BBWAA announcement that Barry Larkin would join Ron Santo in the 2012 class in the Hall of Fame brought few surprises in terms of overall balloting. Indeed, it’d be nice if Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell, among others, would be joining Larkin and the spirit of Santo on that glorious late-July afternoon, but that’s neither here nor there.

Caught somewhere between the Raineses and Radkes of the world was Larry Walker, whom in his first year of eligibility had garnered just under a quarter of the vote (22.9 percent). It’s certainly not the kiss of death for the burly British Columbian; there’s a growing sentiment that Raines will eventually get the call as one of the best leadoff hitters in recent memory, and he too was featured on fewer than a quarter of the ballots in his first dance back in 2008.

But rather than getting caught up too much in comparisons, let’s really dig into where Walker stands among his comrades — those residing in Cooperstown or elsewhere — before letting the reader decide which route they’d take as a voter.

The BBWAA dictates the following:
“Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by jdcurt2

Ryan Madson to the Reds. Not sure how I feel about it. We could have probably have had Cordero for less or even Kerry Wood. 
Then we could have used the extra money on a left fielder.

Now the reports are it's a one-year $10 or $11 million deal... Boras comes through again. 
Click to expand...

Great deal. Didn't want Coco back and Wood is staying with the Cubs. Signifies that we're going for it more than a Cordero re-signing IMO.
 
Originally Posted by jdcurt2

Ryan Madson to the Reds. Not sure how I feel about it. We could have probably have had Cordero for less or even Kerry Wood. 
Then we could have used the extra money on a left fielder.

Now the reports are it's a one-year $10 or $11 million deal... Boras comes through again. 
Click to expand...

Great deal. Didn't want Coco back and Wood is staying with the Cubs. Signifies that we're going for it more than a Cordero re-signing IMO.
 
I feel like he may be a slightly underrated signing. Maybe not for the Yankees though. If that makes any sense.
 
I feel like he may be a slightly underrated signing. Maybe not for the Yankees though. If that makes any sense.
 
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