2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Top 15 prospects: Detroit Tigers.

Spoiler [+]
Despite graduating a few gems over the years, the Detroit Tigers organization is not known for focusing resource on developing in-house talent. The organization drafts rather conservatively (outside the couple of rounds, at least) and mostly uses its prospects as trade bait. With that said, this year’s Top 15 list has three players on the top of the list that could develop into above-average contributors in Detroit… if they’re not traded first.

1. Jacob Turner, RHP
BORN: May 21, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (9th overall), Missouri HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

Turner’s name came up a lot this past off-season as team’s understandably coveted the right-hander in trade talks with Detroit. Standing 6’5
 
Top 15 prospects: Detroit Tigers.

Spoiler [+]
Despite graduating a few gems over the years, the Detroit Tigers organization is not known for focusing resource on developing in-house talent. The organization drafts rather conservatively (outside the couple of rounds, at least) and mostly uses its prospects as trade bait. With that said, this year’s Top 15 list has three players on the top of the list that could develop into above-average contributors in Detroit… if they’re not traded first.

1. Jacob Turner, RHP
BORN: May 21, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round (9th overall), Missouri HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

Turner’s name came up a lot this past off-season as team’s understandably coveted the right-hander in trade talks with Detroit. Standing 6’5
 
The Yoenis Cespedes test.

Spoiler [+]
Now that Yu Darvish is a Texas Ranger, all the attention on the international market has gone to Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, with the light becoming brighter last week when his residency in the Dominican Republic was established, making him finally eligible to sign. His U.S.-based representative, Adam Katz, insists that Cespedes will be in camp with a team, so a signing could happen soon, and it's time to talk about just how good he can be.

Similar to last month's piece on Darvish, I polled big league executives, many with extensive international experience and in-person looks at Cespedes. I didn't ask specifically about tools or projection. Instead, I asked whether the exec would take Cespedes over a series of five ultra-toolsy 20-something outfielders (like Cespedes) who have yet to reach their ceiling. The players are Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, B.J. Upton, Chris Young and Adam Jones. The question, as presented to the insiders, was a simple one: You can have either Cespedes or each of these five outfielders for the remainder of their career -- and for free -- so cost should not enter into the decision.

Once again, opinions on where Cespedes fit on the scale were all over the board, with both extremes occurring as one exec took all five big leaguers ahead of Cespedes, while another chose Cespedes over all five established players.


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[h3]Colby Rasmus, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]




Scouting report: Once one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, Rasmus seemed to be growing into stardom during his second full season, but clashes with Tony La Russa led to a 2011 trade to Toronto. Things didn't get any better there, as Rasmus limped to the end with a final batting line of .225/.298/.391.

Rasmus had few supporters among those polled, although one National League exec who favored Rasmus over Cespedes is still a believer. "He's just so young, and look at what he just did in 2010," he said.

Others were not as convinced. "I just don't think he's as good as maybe he should be," said an AL scouting executive. "I don't like the swing, and there's something about the J.D. Drew way he goes about things."

Another American League front office member was also tired of the excuses. "I just don't buy the whole 'Tony La Russa turned this guy into a bad player' thing," he said.

One National League scout who preferred Rasmus said position plays a role in the discussion as well. "I know I'm in the minority here, but I see Cespedes as more of a right fielder than one who can patrol center," he explained. "That puts far more pressure on the bat."

The vote: Cespedes, 6-2


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[h3]Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds[/h3]


Scouting report: One of the best athletes in the game, Stubbs combines elite-level defense with power and speed, but severe contact issues led to 205 strikeouts in 2011 and more than a 100-point decline in OPS.

Stubbs' struggles in 2011 were just as troubling to some polled as those of Rasmus. "If you are going to punch out as much as Stubbs does, I'll take Cespedes for the bigger impact," explained an American League scout.

Another AL scout preferred Stubbs for his defense and for being the devil you know offensively. "Stubbs is an elite defender," he said. "And as much as we like projects and prospecting, there's a certain value to the reality of what a guy has done."

A National League executive wondered whether that reality is enough. "Stubbs is supposed to be Mike Cameron," he said. "We haven't seen that yet."

The vote: Cespedes, 6-2


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[h3]B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]


Scouting report: Once seen by many as the top prospect in the game, Upton's career as a big leaguer has been marred by inconsistency and questions about his effort, although he had 23 home runs and 36 stolen bases in 2011 while putting up a 243/.331/.429 line.

For one American League scout, this is where the line is drawn, but it has more to do with the unknown than with Cespedes' potential. "I've already put him ahead of a couple established big leaguers," he said. "That's pretty good. There's an expectation of what he's going to be, but there's still trepidation on a player that's coming here having never played a professional game."

Another American League executive understood that line of thinking but still preferred Cespedes. "So many of these players we're comparing him to have had their holes exposed," he said. "We can get caught without knowing what those might be with Cespedes."

Others had clearly had enough of waiting when it came to Upton. "He's always just showing flashes of what he's capable of," an American League scout said. "The lack of adjustments and the same damn swing every time and knowing how much better he can be just drives you crazy."

The vote: Cespedes, 5-3


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[h3]Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]




Scouting report: While he's averaged 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his five full seasons as Arizona's center fielder, he also has yet to have the breakthrough year many have projected for him.

One executive who preferred Cespedes wondered whether Young really belongs that far above the Rasmus/Stubbs tier. "We're five full years into Young in Arizona, and he has power and some speed and draws some walks, but he's also a career .240 hitter who has not once even had an .800 OPS."

Still, an American League executive liked the sure thing that he saw in Young. "He's bounced back from that 2009 disaster to be a pretty good player," he said. "He's a little older, but I'm sticking with the comfort."

Another American League executive explained how Cespedes' baseline exceeds Young's. "The proper barometer for Cespedes is .270, with 20-plus home runs and solid defense in center field," he said. "His plate discipline and how he acclimates will nudge those numbers north or put them on a downward trajectory."

The vote: Tie, 4-4


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[h3]Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles[/h3]




Scouting report: While his over-aggressive approach is still a turnoff, Jones might be finally harnessing what are unquestionable tools, as he set career highs in 2011 with 25 home runs and a .466 slugging percentage.

Jones' 2011 campaign generated considerable buzz in the industry. "He's just starting to take steps forward," an American League scout said. "There's still room for plenty of growth."

Still, for the scouting executive who took Cespedes over all five candidates, the import's upside is too good to pass up. "There is a lot of room for opinion on these and a lot of interpretation," he said. "Cespedes is going to hit for power. It's not just massive raw strength; it's coordinated strength. He's a freakish athlete. I saw someone compare him physically to Bo Jackson, and while that might sound crazy, that's not far off for me. I don't think he's a guaranteed superstar, but I think there's a good chance he will be, and somebody is going to back up the Brink's truck to find out."

The vote: Jones, 6-2


In the end, the debate is not over Cespedes' unquestioned upside as much as it is the chances of him reaching that ceiling. Most agree that he'll need up to three months in Triple-A to shake the rust off and get used to playing in a major league organization, and the projections for just how much he will hit, as opposed to strike out, range wildly. That ceiling is still far too alluring for some teams, and a projected deal of $40 million for five years has equal chances of being bargain or bust.

The budding rise of the Royals.

Spoiler [+]
SURPRISE, Ariz. -- Dozens of players in shorts and T-shirts navigated around each other in the weight room at the Royals' spring training complex Monday, like boats in a busy port. The right of way went to those in the midst of another set of pull-ups or a core exercise.

Spring training won't start for another three weeks for some of them -- longer, for others -- and there were 60 players at the complex, from major leaguers like Billy Butler to minor leaguers like Irving Falu.

David Lough had shared in the first hitting group of the morning, with Mitch Maier, Jarrod Dyson and Eric Hosmer, and Lough sprayed line drives over shortstop. He had wintered at his Ohio home, so there is a practical benefit for him to get to Arizona early -- to be outside. But he recalled that in the past, you might see only a handful of guys at the complex at the end of January.

Now there are 60 guys, an enormous turnout. Some, like Johnny Giavotella, are here because they have to be; Giavotella had some minor hip surgery and has been getting treatment. But a lot of the players are presumably absorbing at least some of the cost for food and housing to be here.

So many of them have played in the minor leagues together, and won in the minor leagues together, and there is a feeling among them that their time is coming in the big leagues. The Royals won 17 of their 29 games and ranked third in OPS in the American League for the month of September, as Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and others settled in.

The fact is that a lot is out of their control. The Detroit Tigers won the AL Central last year and just spent $214 million to sign one of the best power hitters on the planet -- about the same as the combined payroll of the Royals in the last four seasons. The Cleveland Indians, like Kansas City, have a young and developing team.

The Royals don't yet know what they'll get out of Jonathan Sanchez, as he shifts to the AL after pitching for the San Francisco Giants for the last six seasons, or from Aaron Crow, an All-Star reliever who is looking to transition into the rotation. Kansas City finished 29th in starters' ERA last year, and the Royals will not be relevant until that gets much better.

The Royals are expected to try to retain homegrown star Alex Gordon, who is coming off his best season. Hosmer is a rising star and time will tell whether the Royals invest in him in the way that the Tampa Bay Rays did with Evan Longoria and the Milwaukee Brewers did with Ryan Braun. Hosmer can't possibly know how he would react, he explains, until there's an offer on the table. The same is true for Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Wil Myers and some of the other high-end talents.

But the Royals appear completely invested in each other, for now, and you can see that in the way that Joakim Soria helps the younger players with their work, and the way that catcher Salvador Perez interacts with the others and talks about doing what he can to play in as many games as possible. Jeff Francoeur is not here yet, but he will be, and other players say that even if he hadn't hit in 2011 -- and he did, collecting 71 extra-base hits -- he would have been worth whatever he was paid, for the way that he made the best days even more fun and the worst days tolerable.

Francoeur came up with the Atlanta Braves, as did Kansas City GM Dayton Moore, so it's not a coincidence that the atmosphere around the team is full of respect and expectation and professionalism. As other players arrive in other camps, that won't be universal for the 30 teams.

It's a good start to 2012 for the Royals, who are laboring to end their 26-year streak of not making the playoffs.

The Fielder signing isn't going to change the Royals' plans, writes Rustin Dodd.

The Royals have gone green, with solar panels.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Chipper Jones says 2012 might not be his last season.

Here are Jones' all-time rankings:

Hits: 2,615 (75th)
Runs: 1,561 (53th)
Doubles: 526 (36th)
Home runs: 454 (33rd)
RBIs: 1,561 (40th)

• The Theo Epstein talks are on the back burner, as Nick Cafardo writes.

Baseball executives are fascinated to see how commissioner Bud Selig resolves this, because it will set a precedent on the market value of general managers.

"On one hand, Bud probably doesn't want to force the Cubs to give up a lot, because he doesn't want to create a situation where a GM costs as much as an All-Star player," said one GM. "On the other hand, he doesn't want the Cubs to get away with giving up almost nothing, because he won't want to create a situation where GMs are easily jumping from one team to another to take a president's title, the way that Theo did.

"If I were Bud, I wouldn't even get involved. I'd make them settle it."

One way Selig could stay out of it is insisting the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox finish the compensation issue, while imposing fines on both organizations for each day that the thing is unresolved.

• The Philadelphia Phillies scouted Chad Qualls late last season and tracked his fastball in the mid-90s, and while they are hopeful that Jose Contreras will be back and effective again, they added Qualls as something of a safety net. This is the final piece for the Philadelphia bullpen, writes Bob Brookover.

• Victor Martinez had the first of two surgeries.

• Bill Shaikin has new stuff on the sale of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Mark Teixeira may lay down some bunts.

2. The New York Yankees hired Jim Hendry.

3. Dan Connelly writes about the Baltimore Orioles prospects that might be trade bait. It's incredible that a Rule 5 pick is ranked among Baltimore's top 10 prospects.

4. Edwin Jackson likely won't pick the Orioles. It'd be one of the worst places for an established free-agent starting pitcher to go, unless he was signing for huge dollars, because he'd be landing on the worst team in the AL East, while pitching in an offense-rich park.

5. The Orioles' signing of a young Korean pitcher is drawing criticism.

6. The Tigers could wind up using as many as 10 guys at the DH spot.

7. The Houston Astros signed Livan Hernandez.

8. The Texas Rangers promoted some scouts.

9. Signing Roy Oswalt would go against everything the Rangers have stood for, writes Gerry Fraley. If they do sign him, trading Matt Harrison could be an option, says the pitcher.

10. Evan Longoria has no regrets about signing his contract.

11. The Indians picked up a guy who will compete for a bench job.

12. Oswalt would make sense for the St. Louis Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz.

13. The Indians would still like to settle some arbitration cases, writes Paul Hoynes.

14. The Cubs' brass is learning about the organization's new facility.

15. The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to terms with a couple of arbitration-eligible guys.

16. The San Diego Padres reached an agreement with a pitcher.

Creative solutions for filling holes.

Spoiler [+]
While the offseason nears its end, there are still several contending clubs that have some glaring holes on their rosters.

Whether it comes through promoting a player from the minors or picking out of the bargain bin of what remains in free agency, these five clubs each will need to be creative to get production from a roster spot that could prove problematic in their chase for a playoff spot in 2012.

[h3]St. Louis Cardinals: second base[/h3]
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Last year, St. Louis used a rotation of veterans at the keystone position, giving the majority of the playing time to Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto. Theriot and Punto have moved on, however, and Schumaker is better served in a utility role. For a veteran team coming off a World Series, there will be temptation to just stick the veteran in there or look outside the organization, but the Cardinals should stay in house and give Tyler Greene an opportunity to show what he can do on a regular basis.

Already 28 years old, Greene isn't a youngster anymore, and he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He's spent parts of four seasons at the highest level of the minors, racking up a .291/.373/.477 line in the process, showing both patience at the plate and above-average power for a middle infielder. That power hasn't translated at the major league level yet, but given regular playing time, he should be able to drive balls into the gaps at Busch Stadium and provide more offense than any of the departed infielders provided for St. Louis a year ago. He's a shortstop by trade, but has spent some time at second in the majors, and should be able to handle the spot at least as well as Schumaker, a converted outfielder who hadn't played second as a pro until the Cardinals moved him there in 2009.

As an added bonus, Greene is a fantastic baserunner -- he's 68-for-78 in stolen base attempts in Triple-A and has never been caught in 16 attempts in the big leagues. That kind of efficiency only adds to his quality all-around game. He might lack the star potential of other notable young players, but the Cardinals should just give Greene the second base job and let him show them what he can do.

[h3]Milwaukee Brewers: first base[/h3]
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The Brewers have some big shoes to fill with the departure of Prince Fielder, and while they signed Aramis Ramirez to help offset some of the offense Fielder will take with him to Detroit, they'll need real production from the first base replacement that they settle on in order to keep up in a competitive NL Central. Mat Gamel, 26, is expected to be first in line for the job, but despite superficially solid minor league numbers, he's probably not a sufficient solution. His .310/.372/.540 line in Triple-A sounds nice, but 2011 was an amazing year for offense in the Pacific Coast League, and the average hitter posted an .807 OPS in the best hitters' league in baseball. Given less friendly hitting confines and more challenging pitchers, Gamel is likely to flounder.

The better in-house solution might lie with another farmhand -- third baseman Taylor Green. Green was Gamel's teammate in Triple-A and outhit him in nearly every way (.336/.413/.583) while being a year younger. He walked more, struck out less, hit for more power, and he's a significantly better defender than the lead-glove Gamel. The signing of Ramirez blocked Green's path to the majors, but Ramirez is no gold glover himself, and it might not take the Brewers long to realize that their best alignment includes Green at third and Ramirez at first. By swapping out Gamel for Green, the team could improve both their offense and defense at the same time.

[h3]Detroit Tigers: No. 5 starter[/h3]
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Signing Fielder greatly improves the Tigers' offense, but the cascading effect of pushing Miguel Cabrera to third base may very well wreak havoc with the team's defense, making pitching depth even more necessary than it was before. While rookie Jacob Turner is well thought of and has a promising future, he's also a 21-year-old with just three starts at Triple-A -- not a guy you want to count on for 150 big league innings while pitching around the league's worst infield defense.

The Tigers need a bridge to let Turner get his feet wet in the minors for the first few months of the season, and ideally, they'd get a pitcher who wouldn't be overly affected by the team's beer-league defensive alignment. Fortunately for them, no pitcher in baseball relies less on his defense than free agent Rich Harden -- 141 of the 363 batters he faced (39 percent) last year either walked, were hit by a pitch, struck out or hit a home run. Harden's also an extreme fly ball pitcher, allowing just 74 ground balls in 82 2/3 innings pitched last year.

Due to his long history of medical problems, Harden will come cheap and wouldn't be a significant barrier if Turner proved to be ready earlier in the season. If they can keep Harden healthy for a few months, however, he could provide Turner valuable development time without getting destroyed by the infield defense of doom that Detroit plans on running out next year.

[h3]Philadelphia Phillies: left field[/h3]
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The nicest thing you can say about the Phillies' current plan in left field is that they have a great pitching staff. Sure, Raul Ibanez was pretty lousy for them a year ago, so the bar for improvement isn't very high. But the team is currently penciling Laynce Nix (and his career .288 OBP) into a platoon with either John Mayberry (a superior player who may be needed at first base until Ryan Howard is healthy) or Juan Pierre, an annual contender for the "worst hitter in baseball" crown. That a team with championship aspirations would actually consider handing left field over to Nix and Pierre is nothing short of amazing.

Thankfully, the Phillies don't need to go outside the organization to find an upgrade -- they simply have to put some faith in former top prospect Domonic Brown. A year ago, ESPN Insider's Keith Law had Brown ranked as the No. 3 prospect in baseball, and at 24, he's far too young to be written off as a bust. His .236/.314/.382 line in the majors up to this point hasn't inspired much confidence, but for comparison, it's no worse than Nix's career .244/.288/.430 line, and Brown obviously wins the upside race. The Phillies just should abandon their plans to let two bench players share a regular role and give Brown regular playing time to see if he can claim the job. If he fails, there will be better options than either Nix or Pierre available on the trade market in the summer.

[h3]Boston Red Sox: starting pitcher[/h3]
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New GM Ben Cherington hasn't hidden his desire to add another major league starter to the team's rotation and was even willing to sacrifice starting shortstop Marco Scutaro in a salary dump in order to increase his odds of landing one of the two remaining free-agent starters who could make a real impact in the AL East. However, with Roy Oswalt apparently deciding that he prefers living in the Midwest, the Sox find themselves staring at one last decent option: Edwin Jackson.

Back in November, I wrote that Jackson was poised to be a bargain this winter, and given that he's still unemployed as we approach February, it seems unlikely that he'll land the kind of contract he had hoped for at the start of the offseason. So while he might not need the Red Sox as much as they need him, it's a match made in whatever heaven Scott Boras qualifies to be involved in.

The Sox rotation is already full of upside guys with injury questions, so Oswalt simply would have added to the talented-but-unreliable group that contributed to the team's demise last September. Jackson is nothing if not durable, and his ability to take the mound and give the team six innings every five days would be a welcome addition to the team's rotation. Besides, is there an easier job in America than replacing John Lackey?
 
The Yoenis Cespedes test.

Spoiler [+]
Now that Yu Darvish is a Texas Ranger, all the attention on the international market has gone to Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, with the light becoming brighter last week when his residency in the Dominican Republic was established, making him finally eligible to sign. His U.S.-based representative, Adam Katz, insists that Cespedes will be in camp with a team, so a signing could happen soon, and it's time to talk about just how good he can be.

Similar to last month's piece on Darvish, I polled big league executives, many with extensive international experience and in-person looks at Cespedes. I didn't ask specifically about tools or projection. Instead, I asked whether the exec would take Cespedes over a series of five ultra-toolsy 20-something outfielders (like Cespedes) who have yet to reach their ceiling. The players are Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, B.J. Upton, Chris Young and Adam Jones. The question, as presented to the insiders, was a simple one: You can have either Cespedes or each of these five outfielders for the remainder of their career -- and for free -- so cost should not enter into the decision.

Once again, opinions on where Cespedes fit on the scale were all over the board, with both extremes occurring as one exec took all five big leaguers ahead of Cespedes, while another chose Cespedes over all five established players.


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[h3]Colby Rasmus, Toronto Blue Jays[/h3]




Scouting report: Once one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, Rasmus seemed to be growing into stardom during his second full season, but clashes with Tony La Russa led to a 2011 trade to Toronto. Things didn't get any better there, as Rasmus limped to the end with a final batting line of .225/.298/.391.

Rasmus had few supporters among those polled, although one National League exec who favored Rasmus over Cespedes is still a believer. "He's just so young, and look at what he just did in 2010," he said.

Others were not as convinced. "I just don't think he's as good as maybe he should be," said an AL scouting executive. "I don't like the swing, and there's something about the J.D. Drew way he goes about things."

Another American League front office member was also tired of the excuses. "I just don't buy the whole 'Tony La Russa turned this guy into a bad player' thing," he said.

One National League scout who preferred Rasmus said position plays a role in the discussion as well. "I know I'm in the minority here, but I see Cespedes as more of a right fielder than one who can patrol center," he explained. "That puts far more pressure on the bat."

The vote: Cespedes, 6-2


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[h3]Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds[/h3]


Scouting report: One of the best athletes in the game, Stubbs combines elite-level defense with power and speed, but severe contact issues led to 205 strikeouts in 2011 and more than a 100-point decline in OPS.

Stubbs' struggles in 2011 were just as troubling to some polled as those of Rasmus. "If you are going to punch out as much as Stubbs does, I'll take Cespedes for the bigger impact," explained an American League scout.

Another AL scout preferred Stubbs for his defense and for being the devil you know offensively. "Stubbs is an elite defender," he said. "And as much as we like projects and prospecting, there's a certain value to the reality of what a guy has done."

A National League executive wondered whether that reality is enough. "Stubbs is supposed to be Mike Cameron," he said. "We haven't seen that yet."

The vote: Cespedes, 6-2


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[h3]B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]


Scouting report: Once seen by many as the top prospect in the game, Upton's career as a big leaguer has been marred by inconsistency and questions about his effort, although he had 23 home runs and 36 stolen bases in 2011 while putting up a 243/.331/.429 line.

For one American League scout, this is where the line is drawn, but it has more to do with the unknown than with Cespedes' potential. "I've already put him ahead of a couple established big leaguers," he said. "That's pretty good. There's an expectation of what he's going to be, but there's still trepidation on a player that's coming here having never played a professional game."

Another American League executive understood that line of thinking but still preferred Cespedes. "So many of these players we're comparing him to have had their holes exposed," he said. "We can get caught without knowing what those might be with Cespedes."

Others had clearly had enough of waiting when it came to Upton. "He's always just showing flashes of what he's capable of," an American League scout said. "The lack of adjustments and the same damn swing every time and knowing how much better he can be just drives you crazy."

The vote: Cespedes, 5-3


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[h3]Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h3]




Scouting report: While he's averaged 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his five full seasons as Arizona's center fielder, he also has yet to have the breakthrough year many have projected for him.

One executive who preferred Cespedes wondered whether Young really belongs that far above the Rasmus/Stubbs tier. "We're five full years into Young in Arizona, and he has power and some speed and draws some walks, but he's also a career .240 hitter who has not once even had an .800 OPS."

Still, an American League executive liked the sure thing that he saw in Young. "He's bounced back from that 2009 disaster to be a pretty good player," he said. "He's a little older, but I'm sticking with the comfort."

Another American League executive explained how Cespedes' baseline exceeds Young's. "The proper barometer for Cespedes is .270, with 20-plus home runs and solid defense in center field," he said. "His plate discipline and how he acclimates will nudge those numbers north or put them on a downward trajectory."

The vote: Tie, 4-4


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[h3]Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles[/h3]




Scouting report: While his over-aggressive approach is still a turnoff, Jones might be finally harnessing what are unquestionable tools, as he set career highs in 2011 with 25 home runs and a .466 slugging percentage.

Jones' 2011 campaign generated considerable buzz in the industry. "He's just starting to take steps forward," an American League scout said. "There's still room for plenty of growth."

Still, for the scouting executive who took Cespedes over all five candidates, the import's upside is too good to pass up. "There is a lot of room for opinion on these and a lot of interpretation," he said. "Cespedes is going to hit for power. It's not just massive raw strength; it's coordinated strength. He's a freakish athlete. I saw someone compare him physically to Bo Jackson, and while that might sound crazy, that's not far off for me. I don't think he's a guaranteed superstar, but I think there's a good chance he will be, and somebody is going to back up the Brink's truck to find out."

The vote: Jones, 6-2


In the end, the debate is not over Cespedes' unquestioned upside as much as it is the chances of him reaching that ceiling. Most agree that he'll need up to three months in Triple-A to shake the rust off and get used to playing in a major league organization, and the projections for just how much he will hit, as opposed to strike out, range wildly. That ceiling is still far too alluring for some teams, and a projected deal of $40 million for five years has equal chances of being bargain or bust.

The budding rise of the Royals.

Spoiler [+]
SURPRISE, Ariz. -- Dozens of players in shorts and T-shirts navigated around each other in the weight room at the Royals' spring training complex Monday, like boats in a busy port. The right of way went to those in the midst of another set of pull-ups or a core exercise.

Spring training won't start for another three weeks for some of them -- longer, for others -- and there were 60 players at the complex, from major leaguers like Billy Butler to minor leaguers like Irving Falu.

David Lough had shared in the first hitting group of the morning, with Mitch Maier, Jarrod Dyson and Eric Hosmer, and Lough sprayed line drives over shortstop. He had wintered at his Ohio home, so there is a practical benefit for him to get to Arizona early -- to be outside. But he recalled that in the past, you might see only a handful of guys at the complex at the end of January.

Now there are 60 guys, an enormous turnout. Some, like Johnny Giavotella, are here because they have to be; Giavotella had some minor hip surgery and has been getting treatment. But a lot of the players are presumably absorbing at least some of the cost for food and housing to be here.

So many of them have played in the minor leagues together, and won in the minor leagues together, and there is a feeling among them that their time is coming in the big leagues. The Royals won 17 of their 29 games and ranked third in OPS in the American League for the month of September, as Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and others settled in.

The fact is that a lot is out of their control. The Detroit Tigers won the AL Central last year and just spent $214 million to sign one of the best power hitters on the planet -- about the same as the combined payroll of the Royals in the last four seasons. The Cleveland Indians, like Kansas City, have a young and developing team.

The Royals don't yet know what they'll get out of Jonathan Sanchez, as he shifts to the AL after pitching for the San Francisco Giants for the last six seasons, or from Aaron Crow, an All-Star reliever who is looking to transition into the rotation. Kansas City finished 29th in starters' ERA last year, and the Royals will not be relevant until that gets much better.

The Royals are expected to try to retain homegrown star Alex Gordon, who is coming off his best season. Hosmer is a rising star and time will tell whether the Royals invest in him in the way that the Tampa Bay Rays did with Evan Longoria and the Milwaukee Brewers did with Ryan Braun. Hosmer can't possibly know how he would react, he explains, until there's an offer on the table. The same is true for Moustakas, Danny Duffy, Wil Myers and some of the other high-end talents.

But the Royals appear completely invested in each other, for now, and you can see that in the way that Joakim Soria helps the younger players with their work, and the way that catcher Salvador Perez interacts with the others and talks about doing what he can to play in as many games as possible. Jeff Francoeur is not here yet, but he will be, and other players say that even if he hadn't hit in 2011 -- and he did, collecting 71 extra-base hits -- he would have been worth whatever he was paid, for the way that he made the best days even more fun and the worst days tolerable.

Francoeur came up with the Atlanta Braves, as did Kansas City GM Dayton Moore, so it's not a coincidence that the atmosphere around the team is full of respect and expectation and professionalism. As other players arrive in other camps, that won't be universal for the 30 teams.

It's a good start to 2012 for the Royals, who are laboring to end their 26-year streak of not making the playoffs.

The Fielder signing isn't going to change the Royals' plans, writes Rustin Dodd.

The Royals have gone green, with solar panels.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Chipper Jones says 2012 might not be his last season.

Here are Jones' all-time rankings:

Hits: 2,615 (75th)
Runs: 1,561 (53th)
Doubles: 526 (36th)
Home runs: 454 (33rd)
RBIs: 1,561 (40th)

• The Theo Epstein talks are on the back burner, as Nick Cafardo writes.

Baseball executives are fascinated to see how commissioner Bud Selig resolves this, because it will set a precedent on the market value of general managers.

"On one hand, Bud probably doesn't want to force the Cubs to give up a lot, because he doesn't want to create a situation where a GM costs as much as an All-Star player," said one GM. "On the other hand, he doesn't want the Cubs to get away with giving up almost nothing, because he won't want to create a situation where GMs are easily jumping from one team to another to take a president's title, the way that Theo did.

"If I were Bud, I wouldn't even get involved. I'd make them settle it."

One way Selig could stay out of it is insisting the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox finish the compensation issue, while imposing fines on both organizations for each day that the thing is unresolved.

• The Philadelphia Phillies scouted Chad Qualls late last season and tracked his fastball in the mid-90s, and while they are hopeful that Jose Contreras will be back and effective again, they added Qualls as something of a safety net. This is the final piece for the Philadelphia bullpen, writes Bob Brookover.

• Victor Martinez had the first of two surgeries.

• Bill Shaikin has new stuff on the sale of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Mark Teixeira may lay down some bunts.

2. The New York Yankees hired Jim Hendry.

3. Dan Connelly writes about the Baltimore Orioles prospects that might be trade bait. It's incredible that a Rule 5 pick is ranked among Baltimore's top 10 prospects.

4. Edwin Jackson likely won't pick the Orioles. It'd be one of the worst places for an established free-agent starting pitcher to go, unless he was signing for huge dollars, because he'd be landing on the worst team in the AL East, while pitching in an offense-rich park.

5. The Orioles' signing of a young Korean pitcher is drawing criticism.

6. The Tigers could wind up using as many as 10 guys at the DH spot.

7. The Houston Astros signed Livan Hernandez.

8. The Texas Rangers promoted some scouts.

9. Signing Roy Oswalt would go against everything the Rangers have stood for, writes Gerry Fraley. If they do sign him, trading Matt Harrison could be an option, says the pitcher.

10. Evan Longoria has no regrets about signing his contract.

11. The Indians picked up a guy who will compete for a bench job.

12. Oswalt would make sense for the St. Louis Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz.

13. The Indians would still like to settle some arbitration cases, writes Paul Hoynes.

14. The Cubs' brass is learning about the organization's new facility.

15. The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to terms with a couple of arbitration-eligible guys.

16. The San Diego Padres reached an agreement with a pitcher.

Creative solutions for filling holes.

Spoiler [+]
While the offseason nears its end, there are still several contending clubs that have some glaring holes on their rosters.

Whether it comes through promoting a player from the minors or picking out of the bargain bin of what remains in free agency, these five clubs each will need to be creative to get production from a roster spot that could prove problematic in their chase for a playoff spot in 2012.

[h3]St. Louis Cardinals: second base[/h3]
stl.gif


Last year, St. Louis used a rotation of veterans at the keystone position, giving the majority of the playing time to Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto. Theriot and Punto have moved on, however, and Schumaker is better served in a utility role. For a veteran team coming off a World Series, there will be temptation to just stick the veteran in there or look outside the organization, but the Cardinals should stay in house and give Tyler Greene an opportunity to show what he can do on a regular basis.

Already 28 years old, Greene isn't a youngster anymore, and he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He's spent parts of four seasons at the highest level of the minors, racking up a .291/.373/.477 line in the process, showing both patience at the plate and above-average power for a middle infielder. That power hasn't translated at the major league level yet, but given regular playing time, he should be able to drive balls into the gaps at Busch Stadium and provide more offense than any of the departed infielders provided for St. Louis a year ago. He's a shortstop by trade, but has spent some time at second in the majors, and should be able to handle the spot at least as well as Schumaker, a converted outfielder who hadn't played second as a pro until the Cardinals moved him there in 2009.

As an added bonus, Greene is a fantastic baserunner -- he's 68-for-78 in stolen base attempts in Triple-A and has never been caught in 16 attempts in the big leagues. That kind of efficiency only adds to his quality all-around game. He might lack the star potential of other notable young players, but the Cardinals should just give Greene the second base job and let him show them what he can do.

[h3]Milwaukee Brewers: first base[/h3]
mil.gif


The Brewers have some big shoes to fill with the departure of Prince Fielder, and while they signed Aramis Ramirez to help offset some of the offense Fielder will take with him to Detroit, they'll need real production from the first base replacement that they settle on in order to keep up in a competitive NL Central. Mat Gamel, 26, is expected to be first in line for the job, but despite superficially solid minor league numbers, he's probably not a sufficient solution. His .310/.372/.540 line in Triple-A sounds nice, but 2011 was an amazing year for offense in the Pacific Coast League, and the average hitter posted an .807 OPS in the best hitters' league in baseball. Given less friendly hitting confines and more challenging pitchers, Gamel is likely to flounder.

The better in-house solution might lie with another farmhand -- third baseman Taylor Green. Green was Gamel's teammate in Triple-A and outhit him in nearly every way (.336/.413/.583) while being a year younger. He walked more, struck out less, hit for more power, and he's a significantly better defender than the lead-glove Gamel. The signing of Ramirez blocked Green's path to the majors, but Ramirez is no gold glover himself, and it might not take the Brewers long to realize that their best alignment includes Green at third and Ramirez at first. By swapping out Gamel for Green, the team could improve both their offense and defense at the same time.

[h3]Detroit Tigers: No. 5 starter[/h3]
det.gif


Signing Fielder greatly improves the Tigers' offense, but the cascading effect of pushing Miguel Cabrera to third base may very well wreak havoc with the team's defense, making pitching depth even more necessary than it was before. While rookie Jacob Turner is well thought of and has a promising future, he's also a 21-year-old with just three starts at Triple-A -- not a guy you want to count on for 150 big league innings while pitching around the league's worst infield defense.

The Tigers need a bridge to let Turner get his feet wet in the minors for the first few months of the season, and ideally, they'd get a pitcher who wouldn't be overly affected by the team's beer-league defensive alignment. Fortunately for them, no pitcher in baseball relies less on his defense than free agent Rich Harden -- 141 of the 363 batters he faced (39 percent) last year either walked, were hit by a pitch, struck out or hit a home run. Harden's also an extreme fly ball pitcher, allowing just 74 ground balls in 82 2/3 innings pitched last year.

Due to his long history of medical problems, Harden will come cheap and wouldn't be a significant barrier if Turner proved to be ready earlier in the season. If they can keep Harden healthy for a few months, however, he could provide Turner valuable development time without getting destroyed by the infield defense of doom that Detroit plans on running out next year.

[h3]Philadelphia Phillies: left field[/h3]
phi.gif


The nicest thing you can say about the Phillies' current plan in left field is that they have a great pitching staff. Sure, Raul Ibanez was pretty lousy for them a year ago, so the bar for improvement isn't very high. But the team is currently penciling Laynce Nix (and his career .288 OBP) into a platoon with either John Mayberry (a superior player who may be needed at first base until Ryan Howard is healthy) or Juan Pierre, an annual contender for the "worst hitter in baseball" crown. That a team with championship aspirations would actually consider handing left field over to Nix and Pierre is nothing short of amazing.

Thankfully, the Phillies don't need to go outside the organization to find an upgrade -- they simply have to put some faith in former top prospect Domonic Brown. A year ago, ESPN Insider's Keith Law had Brown ranked as the No. 3 prospect in baseball, and at 24, he's far too young to be written off as a bust. His .236/.314/.382 line in the majors up to this point hasn't inspired much confidence, but for comparison, it's no worse than Nix's career .244/.288/.430 line, and Brown obviously wins the upside race. The Phillies just should abandon their plans to let two bench players share a regular role and give Brown regular playing time to see if he can claim the job. If he fails, there will be better options than either Nix or Pierre available on the trade market in the summer.

[h3]Boston Red Sox: starting pitcher[/h3]
bos.gif


New GM Ben Cherington hasn't hidden his desire to add another major league starter to the team's rotation and was even willing to sacrifice starting shortstop Marco Scutaro in a salary dump in order to increase his odds of landing one of the two remaining free-agent starters who could make a real impact in the AL East. However, with Roy Oswalt apparently deciding that he prefers living in the Midwest, the Sox find themselves staring at one last decent option: Edwin Jackson.

Back in November, I wrote that Jackson was poised to be a bargain this winter, and given that he's still unemployed as we approach February, it seems unlikely that he'll land the kind of contract he had hoped for at the start of the offseason. So while he might not need the Red Sox as much as they need him, it's a match made in whatever heaven Scott Boras qualifies to be involved in.

The Sox rotation is already full of upside guys with injury questions, so Oswalt simply would have added to the talented-but-unreliable group that contributed to the team's demise last September. Jackson is nothing if not durable, and his ability to take the mound and give the team six innings every five days would be a welcome addition to the team's rotation. Besides, is there an easier job in America than replacing John Lackey?
 
Bryce Harper, opening day starter?

Spoiler [+]
On Tuesday, Jon Heyman reported that Davey Johnson really wants Bryce Harper to begin the season as his everyday right fielder. While we don’t have a direct quote from Johnson confirming the story, given the fact that the alternative is some combination of Roger Bernadina, Mike Cameron, and Xavier Paul, it’s understandable that Johnson would prefer the uber-talented Harper in his quest to win games.

Managers always want to put the best players on the field that they can. Their job is to maximize performance in the short term, and given the choice between a raw potential superstar or a mediocre role player with limited upside, they’re going to take the kid nearly every time. However, this is also why managers aren’t allowed to make these calls, and Bryce Harper’s opening day assignment will be decided by the team’s front office.

For the Nationals, this should be a pretty easy call. The 19-year-old Harper looks to be a special talent, but even the very best 19-year-olds are generally not great Major League players. In the history of the sport, 16 guys have gotten 100 or more plate appearances in the Majors at age 19 or younger and been above average Major League hitters – the list includes Ty Cobb (134 wRC+), Mickey Mantle (114 wRC+), and Ken Griffey Jr (106 wRC+). If we assume that Harper is that kind of talent, maybe we could pencil him in for a 110 wRC+ or so this season. If he’s more like previous elite teenage prospects B.J. Upton (93 wRC+), Robin Yount (90 wRC+), or Mike Trout (88 wRC+), he’ll likely face his share of struggles and contribute minimal value to the team.

The Nationals simply should not trade team control of Harper’s age-25 season in exchange for getting a few hundred additional at-bats from him this year. The marginal value of having him on the roster from day one is massively outweighed by keeping him from hitting free agency after the 2017 season. Johnson may want Harper, but he shouldn’t get him until June at the earliest.

Yu Darvish 2012 predictions.

Spoiler [+]
Yesterday, the great Brian Cartwright took a lingering glance at Yu Darvish and his Oliver projections in a cutely titled piece, Why Oliver [emoji]9829[/emoji]s Yu.
smile.gif


The projection — a 2.57 ERA and 185 innings pitched — certainly seems optimistic at first glance. The of-late struggling Daisuke Matsuzaka, bless his little heart, has forever impressed his own career into the expectations of NPB players on many baseball fans, new and old schools alike.

So Cartwright’s assumes his difficult task — as he must — with great precision. He is not content to just “blindly follow his off-the-wall forecast
 
Bryce Harper, opening day starter?

Spoiler [+]
On Tuesday, Jon Heyman reported that Davey Johnson really wants Bryce Harper to begin the season as his everyday right fielder. While we don’t have a direct quote from Johnson confirming the story, given the fact that the alternative is some combination of Roger Bernadina, Mike Cameron, and Xavier Paul, it’s understandable that Johnson would prefer the uber-talented Harper in his quest to win games.

Managers always want to put the best players on the field that they can. Their job is to maximize performance in the short term, and given the choice between a raw potential superstar or a mediocre role player with limited upside, they’re going to take the kid nearly every time. However, this is also why managers aren’t allowed to make these calls, and Bryce Harper’s opening day assignment will be decided by the team’s front office.

For the Nationals, this should be a pretty easy call. The 19-year-old Harper looks to be a special talent, but even the very best 19-year-olds are generally not great Major League players. In the history of the sport, 16 guys have gotten 100 or more plate appearances in the Majors at age 19 or younger and been above average Major League hitters – the list includes Ty Cobb (134 wRC+), Mickey Mantle (114 wRC+), and Ken Griffey Jr (106 wRC+). If we assume that Harper is that kind of talent, maybe we could pencil him in for a 110 wRC+ or so this season. If he’s more like previous elite teenage prospects B.J. Upton (93 wRC+), Robin Yount (90 wRC+), or Mike Trout (88 wRC+), he’ll likely face his share of struggles and contribute minimal value to the team.

The Nationals simply should not trade team control of Harper’s age-25 season in exchange for getting a few hundred additional at-bats from him this year. The marginal value of having him on the roster from day one is massively outweighed by keeping him from hitting free agency after the 2017 season. Johnson may want Harper, but he shouldn’t get him until June at the earliest.

Yu Darvish 2012 predictions.

Spoiler [+]
Yesterday, the great Brian Cartwright took a lingering glance at Yu Darvish and his Oliver projections in a cutely titled piece, Why Oliver [emoji]9829[/emoji]s Yu.
smile.gif


The projection — a 2.57 ERA and 185 innings pitched — certainly seems optimistic at first glance. The of-late struggling Daisuke Matsuzaka, bless his little heart, has forever impressed his own career into the expectations of NPB players on many baseball fans, new and old schools alike.

So Cartwright’s assumes his difficult task — as he must — with great precision. He is not content to just “blindly follow his off-the-wall forecast
 
Edwin Jackson to the Nats for $8-12 million.

On that bunting topic, I've been wondering that for most of my life. I think I made a thread about it years ago. Carlos Santana did it successfully three or four times last season.
 
Edwin Jackson to the Nats for $8-12 million.

On that bunting topic, I've been wondering that for most of my life. I think I made a thread about it years ago. Carlos Santana did it successfully three or four times last season.
 
I'm almost positive Cespedes will end up with the Marlins. I believe the other two serious candidates currently are the Nats and the Os. Supposedly the Tigers are a potential dark horse club with an outside chance of landing the Cuban international. Unlike Yu Darvish, I feel like Yoenis won't ultimately match the hype or money paid out for him. 
 
I'm almost positive Cespedes will end up with the Marlins. I believe the other two serious candidates currently are the Nats and the Os. Supposedly the Tigers are a potential dark horse club with an outside chance of landing the Cuban international. Unlike Yu Darvish, I feel like Yoenis won't ultimately match the hype or money paid out for him. 
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Edwin Jackson to the Nats for $8-12 million.

On that bunting topic, I've been wondering that for most of my life. I think I made a thread about it years ago. Carlos Santana did it successfully three or four times last season.
Click to expand...


Carlos Delgado was perfect three straight years in New York
laugh.gif
 3-3 in each season.
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Edwin Jackson to the Nats for $8-12 million.

On that bunting topic, I've been wondering that for most of my life. I think I made a thread about it years ago. Carlos Santana did it successfully three or four times last season.
Click to expand...


Carlos Delgado was perfect three straight years in New York
laugh.gif
 3-3 in each season.
 
drinking beer in a bar out in Dallas?  like nobody's gonna notice him?
really makes you wonder.

there goes that long term extension, tho.
 
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