Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- 61,341
- 23,045
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2008
damn, joel zumaya out for the year
dude can't catch a break
dude can't catch a break
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- 61,341
- 23,045
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2008
damn, joel zumaya out for the year
dude can't catch a break
dude can't catch a break
Batlimore's time of change.
Nationals gamble up on Zimmerman.
Implications of Braun decision.
Epstein compensation a relief for Cubs.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Inge a fit in Oakland?[/h3]
8:00AM ET
[h5]Brandon Inge | Tigers | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
Brandon Inge was hot a happy camper when he learned that the Detroit Tigers had signed Prince Fielder and were moving Miguel Cabrera over to third base.
Inge could end up as a backup at second or third base, or he could end up with a ticket out of town.
In Sunday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney suggests that Inge could be an inexpensive third base solution for the Oakland Athletics, presuming the Tigers eat a lot of the infielder's $5.5 million salary.
Third base is in issue in Oakland as the club awaits word on the severity of a knee injury to Scott Sizemore.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Santana to start spring game next week[/h3]
7:36AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The discussion of Johan Santana's recovery from shoulder surgery normally includes words of caution, complete with the famous "one day at a time" mantra.
New York Mets manager Terry Collins has taken an optimistic public stance regarding his ace. "In my mind right now, in my heart, he will be ready (for Opening Day)," Collins said last week.
Santana, who missed all of the last season following surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, took another step forward with a 73-pitch bullpen session Sunday. Santana remains on track to pitch in a March 6 Grapefruit League game, and will hope for the best after that.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No setback for Howard[/h3]
7:20AM ET
[h5]Ryan Howard | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Amaro disagreed with Manuel's characterization of Howard's situation as a "setback." Trainer Scott Sheridan added that Howard's visit with the doctor this week was previously scheduled and was merely a checkup.
--
Ryan Howard took live batting practice this past week, the first such activity since he ruptured his Achhiles tendon last October. It appears as if the slugger is ahead of schedule, but he will see a doctor this coming week, reports Jim Salisbury.
General manager Ruben Amaro says it's just a precautionary check-up to make sure Howard is ready to move on to the next step in his rehab, but skipper Charlie Manuel used the words "little setback."
Howard is expected to return sometime in May and while he is out Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry, Jr. and Jim Thome are the candidates to play first base.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Contingency plans for Perez[/h3]
7:10AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced Sunday that Perez will miss four to six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
Spoiler [+]
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette gave a quick tour of the Baltimore Orioles' gleaming new facilities Saturday, with the massive hydrotherapy pools and the rooms of diagnostic equipment and the gym where the players work out, which could be referred as a weight room warehouse, given its size.
More change is needed on the Orioles' roster (more specifically, better pitching) before Baltimore climbs into the thick of the AL East race, but the improvement in the team's working conditions, through the renovation of Ed Smith Stadium and the surrounding grounds, is a start. "I'd put this facility up against anybody's," said Showalter, who was instrumental in the changes. "It's part of the culture that people here are trying to develop, and it doesn't come free.
"It eliminates excuses."
There is an enormous hitters' background for the practice field closest to the facility, to replicate the conditions of the regular-season ballparks, which is not standard for spring training parks. There is a half field, used by infielders, or, as was the case on Saturday, for bunting. The whole place is trimmed in Orioles orange, from the covering around the central tower to the padding on the edges of the fences to the numbers painted on the outfield fences.
The Orioles have long been spring training nomads, with their minor leaguers and major leaguers working on different sides of the state of Florida for many years, and with the major leaguers training in cramped conditions in Ft. Lauderdale.
But now they have state-of-the-art facilities. If you want to get work done on a day with less than perfect conditions, there will be a field with FieldTurf, like that used in Tropicana Field. If the trainer wants you to climb into a tub of water to treat soreness, you won't have to wait. It's a step forward for the Orioles, and Showalter sees other signs of progress.
Mark Reynolds has dropped weight, which should help his play at third base. Baltimore should field plus defenders at catcher, first, second, shortstop and perhaps all three outfield positions. Nolan Reimold is healthy again, and if his physical improvement translates on the field, he could be a candidate to hit leadoff if Brian Roberts isn't ready to play. Non-roster invitee Nick Johnson is noticeably thinner, having lost almost 20 pounds, and when he plays, he gets on base.
There are good initial signs of progress for Brian Matusz, who is such a crucial part of the Orioles' future. "We saw how good he can be," said Showalter. "We saw him carve up good lineups."
Dylan Bundy was in high school a year ago, but he may be the greatest building block of hope in this camp, because of how refined he is. There will be debate in the Orioles' organization about where he should pitch in the minors this year, because throwing him against low-A ball hitters -- which would be a natural placement for someone as young as Bundy -- would probably be a waste of his time. The other day, Matt Wieters caught Bundy in a bullpen session and punctuated some pitches with this: "Ooooh." It was his reaction to Bundy's slider. "Oooh, I can work with that," Wieters said, loud enough for his manager to hear.
The Orioles feel better about their depth than they did a year ago and believe that overall, they might have improved in 15 spots on their 40-man roster.
But their challenge is to climb in the toughest division, over the New York Yankees, the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays; even Toronto is rich with prospects. The Orioles have the working conditions now to improve, and that will require more than mortar and paint.
[h3]Spring training notables[/h3]
• Wieters has many years left in his career, but folks who know him have long believed that he will manage or coach after his playing days are over. The other day, Showalter summoned Wieters into a meeting and asked him about an idea on a pick-off play. Wieters told him he'd think about it for a little while, and after a few minutes, he returned and ran through a list of reasons why the play wouldn't work.
• A decision on the San Francisco Giants' territorial rights is not imminent, says Giants president Larry Baer. The city of San Jose is getting ready, just in case, John Woolfolk writes. This situation has reached the point where you wonder who will fire the first challenge -- a lawsuit filed by the city of San Jose, or a push by the Oakland Athletics to have the owners vote on their move.
• The Red Sox made it official and banned alcohol in their clubhouse and on team flights returning to Boston. The whole sport has been shifting in that direction, anyway, in a change started years ago by the Athletics. It makes no sense for the teams, as businesses, to sustain the liability risk of having players leave the clubhouse with their blood-alcohol levels right near or higher than the legal limit for driving.
Big Papi backed the decision, Scott Lauber writes.
• Ryan Braun signed a lot of autographs on Saturday.
Mark Attanasio supports Braun and the testing system.
Braun's victory comes at a cost, players tell John Tomase. Braun's story flunks the test, too, writes Mike Lupica.
Baseball's drug-testing policy is flawed, writes Jere Longman. From the piece:
• A sound bite could wind up hurting Josh Hamilton, writes Gil LeBreton.
• Scott Sizemore suffered a knee injury on Saturday.
If the Athletics are looking for quick, cheap solutions at third base, I wonder if there's something to be worked out for Brandon Inge, who is trying to find a place to play with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit presumably would eat a lot of Inge's contract to trade him.
• Bob Nutting believes the Pittsburgh Pirates can win the NL Central, writes Rob Biertempfel.
• Alex Anthopoulos held court with reporters and talked about, among other things, Brett Cecil dropping 32 pounds during the offseason. From the story:
1. The Nationals will announce later today they have agreed to terms with Ryan Zimmerman for six years, plus a club option for a seventh year.
2. Mark Attanasio wants to finish contract extensions with his manager and GM by Opening Day.
3. The new rules will undermine the Astros' pledge, writes Zachary Levine.
4. The Texas Rangers want Josh Hamilton to play left field primarily, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Gerardo Parra has drawn interest from the Nationals. If the two sides were trying to find a fit, remember that the D-backs may or may not find themselves looking for a shortstop, depending on Stephen Drew's progress.
6. The Chicago Cubs are among the teams that can expect a major increase in TV revenue, Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
7. With Grady Sizemore hurt, Michael Brantley is likely to be the Indians' leadoff guy.
8. The Pirates' owner is open to contract extensions, although talks with Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen didn't result in any deals.
9. Terry Ryan is getting used to the sun and the hot seat again, writes Jim Souhan.
10. Andre Ethier didn't want to talk about his looming free agency.
11. A guy who used to work for the Los Angeles Dodgers says it could get worse if Frank McCourt insists on keeping ownership of the team's parking lots.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Charlie Manuel says Ryan Howard had a setback in his rehab; Ruben Amaro says he didn't.
2. Juan Nicasio is rebounding from a broken neck.
3. The plan is for Todd Helton to play in about 100-110 games this season, writes Patrick Saunders.
4. Joel Zumaya hurt his elbow Saturday.
5. Alex Rodriguez says he's healthy again. He understands less is more, writes Erik Boland. He's battling against time, writes Bob Klapisch.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Greene is the Cardinals' preferred candidate at second base, writes Derrick Goold.
2. Aaron Rowand hopes to make the cut with the Miami Marlins.
More change is needed on the Orioles' roster (more specifically, better pitching) before Baltimore climbs into the thick of the AL East race, but the improvement in the team's working conditions, through the renovation of Ed Smith Stadium and the surrounding grounds, is a start. "I'd put this facility up against anybody's," said Showalter, who was instrumental in the changes. "It's part of the culture that people here are trying to develop, and it doesn't come free.
"It eliminates excuses."
There is an enormous hitters' background for the practice field closest to the facility, to replicate the conditions of the regular-season ballparks, which is not standard for spring training parks. There is a half field, used by infielders, or, as was the case on Saturday, for bunting. The whole place is trimmed in Orioles orange, from the covering around the central tower to the padding on the edges of the fences to the numbers painted on the outfield fences.
The Orioles have long been spring training nomads, with their minor leaguers and major leaguers working on different sides of the state of Florida for many years, and with the major leaguers training in cramped conditions in Ft. Lauderdale.
But now they have state-of-the-art facilities. If you want to get work done on a day with less than perfect conditions, there will be a field with FieldTurf, like that used in Tropicana Field. If the trainer wants you to climb into a tub of water to treat soreness, you won't have to wait. It's a step forward for the Orioles, and Showalter sees other signs of progress.
Mark Reynolds has dropped weight, which should help his play at third base. Baltimore should field plus defenders at catcher, first, second, shortstop and perhaps all three outfield positions. Nolan Reimold is healthy again, and if his physical improvement translates on the field, he could be a candidate to hit leadoff if Brian Roberts isn't ready to play. Non-roster invitee Nick Johnson is noticeably thinner, having lost almost 20 pounds, and when he plays, he gets on base.
There are good initial signs of progress for Brian Matusz, who is such a crucial part of the Orioles' future. "We saw how good he can be," said Showalter. "We saw him carve up good lineups."
Dylan Bundy was in high school a year ago, but he may be the greatest building block of hope in this camp, because of how refined he is. There will be debate in the Orioles' organization about where he should pitch in the minors this year, because throwing him against low-A ball hitters -- which would be a natural placement for someone as young as Bundy -- would probably be a waste of his time. The other day, Matt Wieters caught Bundy in a bullpen session and punctuated some pitches with this: "Ooooh." It was his reaction to Bundy's slider. "Oooh, I can work with that," Wieters said, loud enough for his manager to hear.
The Orioles feel better about their depth than they did a year ago and believe that overall, they might have improved in 15 spots on their 40-man roster.
But their challenge is to climb in the toughest division, over the New York Yankees, the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays; even Toronto is rich with prospects. The Orioles have the working conditions now to improve, and that will require more than mortar and paint.
[h3]Spring training notables[/h3]
• Wieters has many years left in his career, but folks who know him have long believed that he will manage or coach after his playing days are over. The other day, Showalter summoned Wieters into a meeting and asked him about an idea on a pick-off play. Wieters told him he'd think about it for a little while, and after a few minutes, he returned and ran through a list of reasons why the play wouldn't work.
• A decision on the San Francisco Giants' territorial rights is not imminent, says Giants president Larry Baer. The city of San Jose is getting ready, just in case, John Woolfolk writes. This situation has reached the point where you wonder who will fire the first challenge -- a lawsuit filed by the city of San Jose, or a push by the Oakland Athletics to have the owners vote on their move.
• The Red Sox made it official and banned alcohol in their clubhouse and on team flights returning to Boston. The whole sport has been shifting in that direction, anyway, in a change started years ago by the Athletics. It makes no sense for the teams, as businesses, to sustain the liability risk of having players leave the clubhouse with their blood-alcohol levels right near or higher than the legal limit for driving.
Big Papi backed the decision, Scott Lauber writes.
• Ryan Braun signed a lot of autographs on Saturday.
Mark Attanasio supports Braun and the testing system.
Braun's victory comes at a cost, players tell John Tomase. Braun's story flunks the test, too, writes Mike Lupica.
Baseball's drug-testing policy is flawed, writes Jere Longman. From the piece:
- This was not a violation of protocol but rather the preferred approach, according to Travis T. Tygart, the chief executive of the United States Anti-Doping Agency. Any baseball player should prefer to have his sample in the custody of a trained professional -- one agreed to by his union -- than to have it sitting abandoned in some FedEx facility over the weekend, Tygart said. That way, the urine collector can be cross-examined about the chain of custody: What was the temperature of the basement? Did anyone else come into contact with the sample?
- Lawyers for Major League Baseball argued there was no evidence that Braun's sealed sample was tampered with before it reached a Montreal laboratory. And Braun apparently did not prove tampering had occurred. Nor, apparently, did he argue that the sample did not belong to him. Braun also did not challenge the science behind the positive test, Tygart said. Could the sample have degraded over the 48 hours in question to produce a false positive? "To say it degraded and created synthetic testosterone is contrary to logic and science," Tygart said.
- He added: "For synthetic testosterone to be in the urine, it had to come out of the body into the collection cup. Nothing voided would cause synthetic testosterone to magically appear in a urine sample. They never tried to argue that at all."
• A sound bite could wind up hurting Josh Hamilton, writes Gil LeBreton.
• Scott Sizemore suffered a knee injury on Saturday.
If the Athletics are looking for quick, cheap solutions at third base, I wonder if there's something to be worked out for Brandon Inge, who is trying to find a place to play with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit presumably would eat a lot of Inge's contract to trade him.
• Bob Nutting believes the Pittsburgh Pirates can win the NL Central, writes Rob Biertempfel.
• Alex Anthopoulos held court with reporters and talked about, among other things, Brett Cecil dropping 32 pounds during the offseason. From the story:
- Brett Cecil, who came into camp having lost 32 pounds following a disappointing 2011 season. Did the GM have to read him the riot act?
- AA: "That's not my style, laying down the law. I called him, beginning of November, and I just told him I thought he was at a crossroads in his career. His ability is such that he should be a part of this rotation, shouldn't have to think about getting optioned and so on."
1. The Nationals will announce later today they have agreed to terms with Ryan Zimmerman for six years, plus a club option for a seventh year.
2. Mark Attanasio wants to finish contract extensions with his manager and GM by Opening Day.
3. The new rules will undermine the Astros' pledge, writes Zachary Levine.
4. The Texas Rangers want Josh Hamilton to play left field primarily, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Gerardo Parra has drawn interest from the Nationals. If the two sides were trying to find a fit, remember that the D-backs may or may not find themselves looking for a shortstop, depending on Stephen Drew's progress.
6. The Chicago Cubs are among the teams that can expect a major increase in TV revenue, Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
7. With Grady Sizemore hurt, Michael Brantley is likely to be the Indians' leadoff guy.
8. The Pirates' owner is open to contract extensions, although talks with Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen didn't result in any deals.
9. Terry Ryan is getting used to the sun and the hot seat again, writes Jim Souhan.
10. Andre Ethier didn't want to talk about his looming free agency.
11. A guy who used to work for the Los Angeles Dodgers says it could get worse if Frank McCourt insists on keeping ownership of the team's parking lots.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Charlie Manuel says Ryan Howard had a setback in his rehab; Ruben Amaro says he didn't.
2. Juan Nicasio is rebounding from a broken neck.
3. The plan is for Todd Helton to play in about 100-110 games this season, writes Patrick Saunders.
4. Joel Zumaya hurt his elbow Saturday.
5. Alex Rodriguez says he's healthy again. He understands less is more, writes Erik Boland. He's battling against time, writes Bob Klapisch.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Greene is the Cardinals' preferred candidate at second base, writes Derrick Goold.
2. Aaron Rowand hopes to make the cut with the Miami Marlins.
Nationals gamble up on Zimmerman.
Spoiler [+]
BRADENTON, Fla. -- Joel Hanrahan stared at his phone at Pittsburgh Pirates camp on Sunday, at Twitter. He was checking out the initial details of the new six-year, $100 million extension that old friend Ryan Zimmerman signed, including the $10 million deferred for a personal services contract, because the deal essentially ties the third baseman to the Washington Nationals for the rest of his life.
Hanrahan had other things to do, but if he had lived on Twitter during the rest of the afternoon, he would've seen a lot of questions about whether it was a good decision for Washington to commit $126 million during the next eight years to Zimmerman. Set aside Miguel Cabrera from this conversation for a moment, because we don't know yet whether his transition to third base is going to stick; Zimmerman's deal will rank second among other third basemen.
[h4]Hot corner dollars[/h4]
Largest annual average value in MLB history for third basemen (Note: Young played 3B at time of deal).
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
AAV
[/th][th=""]
Seasons
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
$27.5M
[/td][td]
2008-17
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Ryan Zimmerman
[/td][td]
$16.7M
[/td][td]
2014-19
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Adrian Beltre
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2011-15
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Michael Young
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2009-13
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Aramis Ramirez
[/td][td]
$15.0M
[/td][td]
2007-11
[/td][/tr][/table]
It's an enormous contract and commitment, and Zimmerman's production is not mind-blowing. He's never had a full season in the majors in which he posted an OPS of .900, and he's coming off a year in which he's hit .289 with 12 homers in 101 games. During the last four seasons, he's played in 506 games, an average of about 127 per year; he's missed a lot of games.
But right now, the only position in the major leagues which may have less high-impact talent than third base could be catcher, and there is no question that Zimmerman is an elite player at his position.
From Justin Havens of ESPN Research, the most wins above replacement by primary third basemen since 2006 (source: FanGraphs):
Alex Rodriguez: 32.6
David Wright: 30.6
Zimmerman: 29.4
Chipper Jones: 27.2
Adrian Beltre: 27.0
When healthy, Zimmerman's been a tremendous player, and there is nothing about the injuries that he's suffered to this point that would necessarily have a long-term effect -- unlike a starting pitcher with a shoulder injury. He is healthy now, and there is no reason to think he can't be an excellent player for years to come.
Beyond that, the Nationals are clearly comfortable with Zimmerman, who could be the living definition of the phrase "even-keeled." Washington GM Mike Rizzo felt, during the negotiations, that if the Nationals didn't give Zimmerman a full no-trade clause, the third baseman wouldn't sign the deal. So the Nationals relented.
Will it pay off? We'll see. But it seems like a reasonable investment in a reliable and productive player by a team with significant resources.
Zimmerman is with the Nationals for the long haul. Here are some highlights from the Zimmerman press conference, from Adam Kilgore.
Zimmerman will make $126 million during the next eight seasons, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Reporting from Pirates camp[/h3]
Nate McLouth can offer a unique perspective on the Pirates, because he left Pittsburgh early in the summer of 2009 after being traded to the Atlanta Braves, and now he's back two-and-a-half years later. "Everything is a lot more positive," McLouth said, standing in front of his locker. McLouth was talking about everything from the training to the food, but he was also talking about how the players feel and carry themselves.
This was the focus of a lot of the work last season, Clint Hurdle recalls -- getting the Pirates to raise expectations for themselves, to alter the perception of what they could be. In June and July, Pittsburgh played well, hovering within range of the division lead.
The Pirates collapsed in the last two months after their rotation was hit by injuries -- Charlie Morton was probably more hurt than he let on. Now, Hurdle says, the challenge is to build on 2011 and carry that vision of what could be throughout an entire 162-game season.
Hurdle had a voice in bringing in Clint Barmes to be the shortstop, after managing Barmes in Houston, and what was immediately noticed, besides his defensive skills, was how he had gone to second baseman Neil Walker and told him the two needed to learn how the other worked around the bag. Barmes has stayed late to work with young infielders, and in the same way, A.J. Burnett has immediately asserted himself as something of a leader among the pitchers.
By the time Burnett's tenure with the New York Yankees had ended, he had fallen out of favor with the fan base and a trade was needed, but general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi will testify to this on his behalf: Burnett always worked, always tried to get better, was always accountable and professional. The Pirates had signed Rod Barajas long before they traded for Burnett, and Barajas fully endorsed the Burnett trade; in the same way, Burnett believes Barajas will help the Pirates' pitchers.
Pedro Alvarez is in better physical condition, and to hear him describe it, he is in a better place mentally, with a better swing. His batting practice this spring reminds the Pirates of what they saw when Alvarez was at his best for them in 2009. Rather than pulling everything between first base and the second baseman, he is driving the ball through the middle of the diamond. The timing of a turnaround for him would be pivotal for the Pirates, because this is a crucial year for him. With a bounce-back season, he could demonstrate he's capable of being a good player at the major league level -- which he strongly believes -- and if he struggles, the view of what he could be will change measurably.
Andrew McCutchen is the most important player in the Pirates' universe, and whether or not he signs a long-term deal will be viewed by the Pittsburgh fan base as a barometer of progress. But the Pirates have about two years to work out a deal before they would have to go head-to-head with the question of whether they need to trade McCutchen before he becomes eligible for free agency.
Until then, they'll continue to work to get better, to end two decades of losing. How far have they gotten, and how far can they go this year, in what is generally a weakened division? Alvarez and Burnett will have a lot to do with that this year. But clearly, there has been progress, as McLouth has seen.
The Pirates will be flexible in their contract talks with McCutchen, writes Rob Biertempfel.
McLouth's reunion has a better feel, writes Bill Brink.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• By the way: Can anybody remember a year in which a newcomer is a more prohibitive favorite to win Rookie of the Year than the Rays' Matt Moore will be this year?
• Chris Perez is going to miss spring training. Not a big deal at all, because he'll still be ready early in the year, and Vinnie Pestano is a terrific fill-in.
• Josh Hamilton keeps talking about his contract. He expects to become a free agent, writes Bob Nightengale.
• Vernon Wells has retooled his swing, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
• Miguel Cabrera is doing his work at third base, writes **** Scanlon.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Jose Mijares arrived late in camp.
2. Sean Marshall is close to working out an extension with the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
3. Mike Leake hopes the Reds don't limit his innings.
4. Kosuke Fukudome gives the Chicago White Sox what they need.
5. Ruben Tejada was on time, which means that in the eyes of his manager, he was late.
6. There's no talk of a new David Wright deal, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The St. Louis Cardinals are being cautious with Allen Craig.
2. Tommy Hanson is ready to move forward after his spring training accident, writes Jeff Schultz.
3. Buster Posey took swings in live batting practice and felt great.
4. Joel Zumaya's season is over; this could signal the end of Zumaya's career, writes John Shipley.
5. Scott Sizemore is getting his knee MRI today.
6. Pablo Sandoval is OK after getting smoked.
7. Carlos Villanueva has a mystery ailment.
8. Ryan Howard has an open wound, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher was shut down.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Matt Harrison still fits in the Texas rotation, writes Gil LeBreton.
2. Carlos Lee is playing for his future.
3. The Padres' lineup is a topic of discussion, as Bill Center writes. The Padres think that Yonder Alonso will be a better fit.
Hanrahan had other things to do, but if he had lived on Twitter during the rest of the afternoon, he would've seen a lot of questions about whether it was a good decision for Washington to commit $126 million during the next eight years to Zimmerman. Set aside Miguel Cabrera from this conversation for a moment, because we don't know yet whether his transition to third base is going to stick; Zimmerman's deal will rank second among other third basemen.
[h4]Hot corner dollars[/h4]
Largest annual average value in MLB history for third basemen (Note: Young played 3B at time of deal).
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
AAV
[/th][th=""]
Seasons
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
$27.5M
[/td][td]
2008-17
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Ryan Zimmerman
[/td][td]
$16.7M
[/td][td]
2014-19
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Adrian Beltre
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2011-15
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Michael Young
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2009-13
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Aramis Ramirez
[/td][td]
$15.0M
[/td][td]
2007-11
[/td][/tr][/table]
It's an enormous contract and commitment, and Zimmerman's production is not mind-blowing. He's never had a full season in the majors in which he posted an OPS of .900, and he's coming off a year in which he's hit .289 with 12 homers in 101 games. During the last four seasons, he's played in 506 games, an average of about 127 per year; he's missed a lot of games.
But right now, the only position in the major leagues which may have less high-impact talent than third base could be catcher, and there is no question that Zimmerman is an elite player at his position.
From Justin Havens of ESPN Research, the most wins above replacement by primary third basemen since 2006 (source: FanGraphs):
Alex Rodriguez: 32.6
David Wright: 30.6
Zimmerman: 29.4
Chipper Jones: 27.2
Adrian Beltre: 27.0
When healthy, Zimmerman's been a tremendous player, and there is nothing about the injuries that he's suffered to this point that would necessarily have a long-term effect -- unlike a starting pitcher with a shoulder injury. He is healthy now, and there is no reason to think he can't be an excellent player for years to come.
Beyond that, the Nationals are clearly comfortable with Zimmerman, who could be the living definition of the phrase "even-keeled." Washington GM Mike Rizzo felt, during the negotiations, that if the Nationals didn't give Zimmerman a full no-trade clause, the third baseman wouldn't sign the deal. So the Nationals relented.
Will it pay off? We'll see. But it seems like a reasonable investment in a reliable and productive player by a team with significant resources.
Zimmerman is with the Nationals for the long haul. Here are some highlights from the Zimmerman press conference, from Adam Kilgore.
Zimmerman will make $126 million during the next eight seasons, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Reporting from Pirates camp[/h3]
Nate McLouth can offer a unique perspective on the Pirates, because he left Pittsburgh early in the summer of 2009 after being traded to the Atlanta Braves, and now he's back two-and-a-half years later. "Everything is a lot more positive," McLouth said, standing in front of his locker. McLouth was talking about everything from the training to the food, but he was also talking about how the players feel and carry themselves.
This was the focus of a lot of the work last season, Clint Hurdle recalls -- getting the Pirates to raise expectations for themselves, to alter the perception of what they could be. In June and July, Pittsburgh played well, hovering within range of the division lead.
The Pirates collapsed in the last two months after their rotation was hit by injuries -- Charlie Morton was probably more hurt than he let on. Now, Hurdle says, the challenge is to build on 2011 and carry that vision of what could be throughout an entire 162-game season.
Hurdle had a voice in bringing in Clint Barmes to be the shortstop, after managing Barmes in Houston, and what was immediately noticed, besides his defensive skills, was how he had gone to second baseman Neil Walker and told him the two needed to learn how the other worked around the bag. Barmes has stayed late to work with young infielders, and in the same way, A.J. Burnett has immediately asserted himself as something of a leader among the pitchers.
By the time Burnett's tenure with the New York Yankees had ended, he had fallen out of favor with the fan base and a trade was needed, but general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi will testify to this on his behalf: Burnett always worked, always tried to get better, was always accountable and professional. The Pirates had signed Rod Barajas long before they traded for Burnett, and Barajas fully endorsed the Burnett trade; in the same way, Burnett believes Barajas will help the Pirates' pitchers.
Pedro Alvarez is in better physical condition, and to hear him describe it, he is in a better place mentally, with a better swing. His batting practice this spring reminds the Pirates of what they saw when Alvarez was at his best for them in 2009. Rather than pulling everything between first base and the second baseman, he is driving the ball through the middle of the diamond. The timing of a turnaround for him would be pivotal for the Pirates, because this is a crucial year for him. With a bounce-back season, he could demonstrate he's capable of being a good player at the major league level -- which he strongly believes -- and if he struggles, the view of what he could be will change measurably.
Andrew McCutchen is the most important player in the Pirates' universe, and whether or not he signs a long-term deal will be viewed by the Pittsburgh fan base as a barometer of progress. But the Pirates have about two years to work out a deal before they would have to go head-to-head with the question of whether they need to trade McCutchen before he becomes eligible for free agency.
Until then, they'll continue to work to get better, to end two decades of losing. How far have they gotten, and how far can they go this year, in what is generally a weakened division? Alvarez and Burnett will have a lot to do with that this year. But clearly, there has been progress, as McLouth has seen.
The Pirates will be flexible in their contract talks with McCutchen, writes Rob Biertempfel.
McLouth's reunion has a better feel, writes Bill Brink.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• By the way: Can anybody remember a year in which a newcomer is a more prohibitive favorite to win Rookie of the Year than the Rays' Matt Moore will be this year?
• Chris Perez is going to miss spring training. Not a big deal at all, because he'll still be ready early in the year, and Vinnie Pestano is a terrific fill-in.
• Josh Hamilton keeps talking about his contract. He expects to become a free agent, writes Bob Nightengale.
• Vernon Wells has retooled his swing, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
• Miguel Cabrera is doing his work at third base, writes **** Scanlon.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Jose Mijares arrived late in camp.
2. Sean Marshall is close to working out an extension with the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
3. Mike Leake hopes the Reds don't limit his innings.
4. Kosuke Fukudome gives the Chicago White Sox what they need.
5. Ruben Tejada was on time, which means that in the eyes of his manager, he was late.
6. There's no talk of a new David Wright deal, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The St. Louis Cardinals are being cautious with Allen Craig.
2. Tommy Hanson is ready to move forward after his spring training accident, writes Jeff Schultz.
3. Buster Posey took swings in live batting practice and felt great.
4. Joel Zumaya's season is over; this could signal the end of Zumaya's career, writes John Shipley.
5. Scott Sizemore is getting his knee MRI today.
6. Pablo Sandoval is OK after getting smoked.
7. Carlos Villanueva has a mystery ailment.
8. Ryan Howard has an open wound, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher was shut down.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Matt Harrison still fits in the Texas rotation, writes Gil LeBreton.
2. Carlos Lee is playing for his future.
3. The Padres' lineup is a topic of discussion, as Bill Center writes. The Padres think that Yonder Alonso will be a better fit.
Implications of Braun decision.
Spoiler [+]
The Ryan Braun decision is now and will forever be baseball's Rorschach test. Ask 10 people what they see, and what it means, and you'll get 10 different perspectives. And the view of this from all corners of the sport is completely different:
1. Ryan Braun
He has maintained his innocence from the outset and hired expert lawyers to lead his defense and argue the appeal. And he won.
Would anyone in his position handle this differently than he did?
He faced a 50-game suspension and a penalty that would've completely wrecked his reputation. Any player in his situation -- screaming immediately that he did nothing wrong -- would challenge and scrutinize the process in every way possible.
Braun is entitled to the appeal, according to the collective bargaining agreement, and his representatives argued their case. The pivotal arbitrator, Shyam Das, agreed with their argument.
But here's the reality for Braun: No matter what happens with this case going forward, he'll never be able to get his reputation fully restored in the way that he wants.
2. Major League Baseball
League officials were stunned and angered by the decision, which is an enormous problem for them. Since the March 17, 2005, hearing in front of Congress -- the day Rafael Palmeiro angrily insisted upon his innocence -- MLB has diligently worked to strengthen and foster a stringent testing program. Now, in the first instance in which an award-winning player tested positive, the player has won his appeal for the first time, raising a whole lot of questions.
Some of those questions are of the Bigfoot/Grassy Knoll variety, with a small minority of fans wondering if it's coincidence that Braun plays for the team formerly owned by commissioner Bud Selig -- and there's really nothing MLB can do about such conspiracy theories.
The more relevant questions are about the system, the protocol and the appeal process. In the past, MLB and the Players Association have delved into the language of their agreement and made adjustments, and now all of that will have to be revisited.
The current appeal process effectively places an enormous amount of power in the hands of Das, because the votes of two of the three panelists are basically locked in. Rob Manfred, who works for Major League Baseball and is part of the panel, has never voted in favor of an appeal, and Michael Weiner, the head of the Players Association and a part of the panel, has never voted against an appeal.
Having Manfred and Weiner on the appeals panel would seem to be as worthwhile as having operatives from the Democratic and Republican parties weigh in on CNN after a presidential debate: You know what they're going to say, because they're partisan.
So MLB should ask for a change in the structure of the appeals panel. Get three impartial arbitrators on a panel and let them judge, so that the ultimate power isn't in the hands of just one person, as it was in this case.
But no matter what route Major League Baseball takes, it'll never get full satisfaction; from the perspective of baseball officials, this is a blemish that cannot be removed.
3. The players who support the Braun decision
There are a lot of players who fear testing, believing that there are many factors completely out of their control. They fret about being slipped something in a bar, and they have worried that they can be taken down unfairly. Some players have viewed the past appeal results -- no player had ever won an appeal before Braun -- as a weakness of the system, rather than a strength. From their perspective, the fact that a player won an appeal is a good thing, a sign that the system works.
4. The players who are against the Braun decision
And there are a lot of them. I spoke with veteran players on Thursday night who were angry with how this played out. They want a strong, unyielding testing system, a protocol and appeal process that will be definitive in the aftermath of a positive test. "It's B.S.," one player said, unintentionally using the same phrase that Braun did in defending himself.
There are players upset with Weiner's role in the appeal process, wondering if he should be serving the greater good of the Players Association in maintaining a rock-solid drug-testing program that will protect the interests of clean players, rather than that of one player. It's a philosophical element of this discussion that has been going on since the idea of testing was first rejected by former MLBPA director Don Fehr and former COO Gene Orza.
5. What's next?
In the aftermath of the decision, I got a flood of tweets from folks -- most of them Brewers fans -- demanding that I deem Braun clean and innocent.
Look, I've never felt comfortable rendering the word "clean" on anyone. If my brother played Major League Baseball, I would never say he's clean, because the only person who can truly know is the player.
It's clear that the system has loopholes, most notably with human growth hormone, and it's possible for cheaters to get through without being caught. Based on what we know, it's possible to beat the system -- and there's probably a lot we don't know about the latest wave of performance-enhancing drugs designed to beat the testing.
What we can say about Braun, unequivocally, is that he's never been suspended under the terms of baseball's drug-testing policy. That was true on Sept. 30, 2011, and it's true today. That's all we can know.
The only person who can know, for sure, whether Braun is clean and innocent is Braun himself. Nothing that has happened in the last five months has changed that.
Braun made history, writes Tom Haudricourt. Teammate Corey Hart said Braun is ecstatic.
There is a wide range of opinions on what this test means:
All Braun will be is clean enough, writes Jim Litke. Braun needs to keep swinging away, writes Michael Hunt.
Troy Tulowitzki talked to Troy Renck of The Denver Post, and had this to say:
"You get a scenario like this where a guy is presumed guilty and now he's innocent, it makes you feel like it could happen to anybody. I think we all need to watch out for our protection. The testing might need to be reviewed."
The secrecy of the drug-testing program is a problem, writes Gwen Knapp.
Major League Baseball is the big loser in this, writes Joel Sherman. Braun was acquitted but not exonerated, writes Mike Lupica.
Braun's appeal shows that the system works, writes Larry Stone.
Questions linger, writes Tyler Kepner.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. If Jose Reyes gets hurt, Hanley Ramirez will stay at third base, says Ozzie Guillen.
2. Justin Verlander attempted to recruit Roy Oswalt.
3. Brian Wilson could be headed to free agency, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Ryan Zimmerman's contract talks have a lot of hurdles, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Dale Sveum might use Alfonso Soriano in the cleanup spot. Soriano is an accomplished player, and yet he's never had a natural spot in the lineup.
6. If you don't win, changes are made, says Kenny Williams.
7. Duane Below is the frontrunner to be the No. 5 starter for Detroit.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The shift of Miguel Cabrera to third base has begun, writes John Lowe. Jim Leyland says the Detroit defense is pretty good.
2. Stephen Drew is showing good mobility, writes Nick Piecoro.
3. Ryan Roberts is working harder.
4. The Jays' rebuilding talk is wearing thin.
5. Chipper Jones endured sunburn and fat jokes.
6. The Phillies are looking to make changes with their hitters, and it starts with Jimmy Rollins.
7. Joe Torre withdrew his bid to buy the Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
8. A Kansas City catcher needs surgery.
9. Freddy Sanchez believes he'll be ready for Opening Day.
10. Kevin Frandsen has torn his Achilles in the past, and he has some thoughts that might be worthwhile for Ryan Howard.
11. Chase Utley plays through pain, writes Matt Gelb.
12. Jake Peavy says he's healthy and ready to pull his weight, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.
13. Bobby Jenks says mistakes were made with his diagnosis.
14. Johan Santana threw again.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Chris Gimenez has joined the battle for playing time with the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
2. Brian Matusz is looking to put 2011 behind him, as Eduardo Encina writes.
3. Alfredo Aceves is ready to fit into any role.
1. Ryan Braun
He has maintained his innocence from the outset and hired expert lawyers to lead his defense and argue the appeal. And he won.
Would anyone in his position handle this differently than he did?
He faced a 50-game suspension and a penalty that would've completely wrecked his reputation. Any player in his situation -- screaming immediately that he did nothing wrong -- would challenge and scrutinize the process in every way possible.
Braun is entitled to the appeal, according to the collective bargaining agreement, and his representatives argued their case. The pivotal arbitrator, Shyam Das, agreed with their argument.
But here's the reality for Braun: No matter what happens with this case going forward, he'll never be able to get his reputation fully restored in the way that he wants.
2. Major League Baseball
League officials were stunned and angered by the decision, which is an enormous problem for them. Since the March 17, 2005, hearing in front of Congress -- the day Rafael Palmeiro angrily insisted upon his innocence -- MLB has diligently worked to strengthen and foster a stringent testing program. Now, in the first instance in which an award-winning player tested positive, the player has won his appeal for the first time, raising a whole lot of questions.
Some of those questions are of the Bigfoot/Grassy Knoll variety, with a small minority of fans wondering if it's coincidence that Braun plays for the team formerly owned by commissioner Bud Selig -- and there's really nothing MLB can do about such conspiracy theories.
The more relevant questions are about the system, the protocol and the appeal process. In the past, MLB and the Players Association have delved into the language of their agreement and made adjustments, and now all of that will have to be revisited.
The current appeal process effectively places an enormous amount of power in the hands of Das, because the votes of two of the three panelists are basically locked in. Rob Manfred, who works for Major League Baseball and is part of the panel, has never voted in favor of an appeal, and Michael Weiner, the head of the Players Association and a part of the panel, has never voted against an appeal.
Having Manfred and Weiner on the appeals panel would seem to be as worthwhile as having operatives from the Democratic and Republican parties weigh in on CNN after a presidential debate: You know what they're going to say, because they're partisan.
So MLB should ask for a change in the structure of the appeals panel. Get three impartial arbitrators on a panel and let them judge, so that the ultimate power isn't in the hands of just one person, as it was in this case.
But no matter what route Major League Baseball takes, it'll never get full satisfaction; from the perspective of baseball officials, this is a blemish that cannot be removed.
3. The players who support the Braun decision
There are a lot of players who fear testing, believing that there are many factors completely out of their control. They fret about being slipped something in a bar, and they have worried that they can be taken down unfairly. Some players have viewed the past appeal results -- no player had ever won an appeal before Braun -- as a weakness of the system, rather than a strength. From their perspective, the fact that a player won an appeal is a good thing, a sign that the system works.
4. The players who are against the Braun decision
And there are a lot of them. I spoke with veteran players on Thursday night who were angry with how this played out. They want a strong, unyielding testing system, a protocol and appeal process that will be definitive in the aftermath of a positive test. "It's B.S.," one player said, unintentionally using the same phrase that Braun did in defending himself.
There are players upset with Weiner's role in the appeal process, wondering if he should be serving the greater good of the Players Association in maintaining a rock-solid drug-testing program that will protect the interests of clean players, rather than that of one player. It's a philosophical element of this discussion that has been going on since the idea of testing was first rejected by former MLBPA director Don Fehr and former COO Gene Orza.
5. What's next?
In the aftermath of the decision, I got a flood of tweets from folks -- most of them Brewers fans -- demanding that I deem Braun clean and innocent.
Look, I've never felt comfortable rendering the word "clean" on anyone. If my brother played Major League Baseball, I would never say he's clean, because the only person who can truly know is the player.
It's clear that the system has loopholes, most notably with human growth hormone, and it's possible for cheaters to get through without being caught. Based on what we know, it's possible to beat the system -- and there's probably a lot we don't know about the latest wave of performance-enhancing drugs designed to beat the testing.
What we can say about Braun, unequivocally, is that he's never been suspended under the terms of baseball's drug-testing policy. That was true on Sept. 30, 2011, and it's true today. That's all we can know.
The only person who can know, for sure, whether Braun is clean and innocent is Braun himself. Nothing that has happened in the last five months has changed that.
Braun made history, writes Tom Haudricourt. Teammate Corey Hart said Braun is ecstatic.
There is a wide range of opinions on what this test means:
All Braun will be is clean enough, writes Jim Litke. Braun needs to keep swinging away, writes Michael Hunt.
Troy Tulowitzki talked to Troy Renck of The Denver Post, and had this to say:
"You get a scenario like this where a guy is presumed guilty and now he's innocent, it makes you feel like it could happen to anybody. I think we all need to watch out for our protection. The testing might need to be reviewed."
The secrecy of the drug-testing program is a problem, writes Gwen Knapp.
Major League Baseball is the big loser in this, writes Joel Sherman. Braun was acquitted but not exonerated, writes Mike Lupica.
Braun's appeal shows that the system works, writes Larry Stone.
Questions linger, writes Tyler Kepner.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. If Jose Reyes gets hurt, Hanley Ramirez will stay at third base, says Ozzie Guillen.
2. Justin Verlander attempted to recruit Roy Oswalt.
3. Brian Wilson could be headed to free agency, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Ryan Zimmerman's contract talks have a lot of hurdles, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Dale Sveum might use Alfonso Soriano in the cleanup spot. Soriano is an accomplished player, and yet he's never had a natural spot in the lineup.
6. If you don't win, changes are made, says Kenny Williams.
7. Duane Below is the frontrunner to be the No. 5 starter for Detroit.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The shift of Miguel Cabrera to third base has begun, writes John Lowe. Jim Leyland says the Detroit defense is pretty good.
2. Stephen Drew is showing good mobility, writes Nick Piecoro.
3. Ryan Roberts is working harder.
4. The Jays' rebuilding talk is wearing thin.
5. Chipper Jones endured sunburn and fat jokes.
6. The Phillies are looking to make changes with their hitters, and it starts with Jimmy Rollins.
7. Joe Torre withdrew his bid to buy the Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
8. A Kansas City catcher needs surgery.
9. Freddy Sanchez believes he'll be ready for Opening Day.
10. Kevin Frandsen has torn his Achilles in the past, and he has some thoughts that might be worthwhile for Ryan Howard.
11. Chase Utley plays through pain, writes Matt Gelb.
12. Jake Peavy says he's healthy and ready to pull his weight, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.
13. Bobby Jenks says mistakes were made with his diagnosis.
14. Johan Santana threw again.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Chris Gimenez has joined the battle for playing time with the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
2. Brian Matusz is looking to put 2011 behind him, as Eduardo Encina writes.
3. Alfredo Aceves is ready to fit into any role.
Epstein compensation a relief for Cubs.
Spoiler [+]
After all that time and drama, the Red Sox get ... a relief prospect?
In the deal that finally ends the compensation battle over Theo Epstein's departure from Boston for Chicago, the Cubs have shipped the Red Sox relief pitcher Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter -- this one, at least -- has a tremendous arm, working 96-100 mph in one-inning stints and still sitting mid-90s when he's stretched out to two innings. He'll show solid to above-average off-speed weapons, including a hard mid-80s slider, although his changeup can come out more like an average fastball that's just doing hitters a favor. He's already 26, and has a long history of injuries dating back to his freshman year at Kent State; he has never shown he could hold up under a starter's workload, while his command is consistently below-average, ruling out any kind of return to the rotation. In relief, however, he should miss plenty of bats, but whether he's a ninth-inning guy or just a middle reliever depends on whether he can throw quality strikes. He's good inventory, but not an elite prospect.
For the Cubs, this is probably a relief, no pun intended (OK, pun intended). They gave up a prospect outside of their top 10 in exchange for an executive who, with the front office team he's brought in, should add more wins to the Cubs over the next five years than Carpenter will likely produce in his whole career. The Red Sox can stash Carpenter in Triple-A and bring him up whenever they need a relief arm in the big leagues, with the hope that eventually he improves his command, or at least his control, enough to be trusted with high-leverage work.
In the deal that finally ends the compensation battle over Theo Epstein's departure from Boston for Chicago, the Cubs have shipped the Red Sox relief pitcher Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter -- this one, at least -- has a tremendous arm, working 96-100 mph in one-inning stints and still sitting mid-90s when he's stretched out to two innings. He'll show solid to above-average off-speed weapons, including a hard mid-80s slider, although his changeup can come out more like an average fastball that's just doing hitters a favor. He's already 26, and has a long history of injuries dating back to his freshman year at Kent State; he has never shown he could hold up under a starter's workload, while his command is consistently below-average, ruling out any kind of return to the rotation. In relief, however, he should miss plenty of bats, but whether he's a ninth-inning guy or just a middle reliever depends on whether he can throw quality strikes. He's good inventory, but not an elite prospect.
For the Cubs, this is probably a relief, no pun intended (OK, pun intended). They gave up a prospect outside of their top 10 in exchange for an executive who, with the front office team he's brought in, should add more wins to the Cubs over the next five years than Carpenter will likely produce in his whole career. The Red Sox can stash Carpenter in Triple-A and bring him up whenever they need a relief arm in the big leagues, with the hope that eventually he improves his command, or at least his control, enough to be trusted with high-leverage work.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Nats interested in Bourjos[/h3]
9:36AM ET
[h5]Peter Bourjos | Angels | Interested: Nationals? [/h5]
The Washington Nationals made big news Sunday by locking up franchise third baseman Ryan Zimmerman with a $100 million deal. Could the Nats now step up their search for a center fielder?
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Angels' Peter Bourjos is prominent on the Nats' wish list for center fielders, but the Halos asking price remains steep. With Torii Hunter entering the final year of his contract, Cafardo says the Angels have the means to retain both Bourjos and phenom Mike Trout.
The Nats brought back Rick Ankiel to compete for the center field job with Roger Bernadina, but wouldn't mind an upgrade.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards won't carry three catchers[/h3]
9:14AM ET
[h5]St. Louis Cardinals [/h5]
All-Star catcher Yadier Molina plans to borrow a page from the Albert Pujols handbook when it comes to negotiations on a contract extension.
Molina, a four-time Gold Glove winner who turns 30 in July, will be a free agent after the season and has no plans to give the Cardinals a hometown discount. He will make $7 million this year.
As for Molina's backup, manager Mike Mathney said Sunday there is little chance of the club opening with three catchers, barring an injury to Molina. Tony Cruz, Brian Anderson and nonroster veteran Koyie Hill will compete for the backup role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Craig's role and ETA[/h3]
8:54AM ET
[h5]Allen Craig | Cardinals [/h5]
Allen Craig had knee surgery in November and hopes to be back by Opening Day. He's not taking anything for granted, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, as the outfielder is putting in the work to get back strong and on time.
In Monday's Post Dispatch, Joe Strauss writes the Cardinals plan to play it safe with Craig this spring.
Once he's back he will likely play a similar role as he did a year ago: part-time player. Despite losing Albert Pujols to the Angels, the Cardinals do not have a starting spot to hand Craig. Lance Berkman is moving from the outfield to first base, but the club signed Carlos Beltran to take Berkman's place in right.
That leaves Craig a role player, with Matt Holliday in left and Jon Jay in center. Craig has experience, albeit limited, at third base and on the right side of the infield, so he could pick up a little extra playing time moving around more than he did a year ago. Stay tuned on that front. Craig does sound more than optimistic on when he'll be ready to to play.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Wright's future in Queens[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]David Wright | Mets [/h5]
New York Mets third baseman David Wright saw Ryan Zimmerman, his childhood friend, agree Sunday to a six-year, $100 million deal to remain at the hot corner for the Washington Nationals.
Are the Mets prepared to make similar arrangement with Wright, or will they look to unload the face of the franchise as he approaches free agency next winter? Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports Wright is unlikely to quikcly follow Jose Reyes out of town in a midseason deal, but if he wants a contract extension, he will have to show GM Sandy Alderson this year that he is worth another long-term investment.
That means Wright, who hit just .254 with 14 homers in an injury-plagued 2011 season, would have to have a big year, especially after the dimensions of Citi Field have been altered to be more hitter friendly.
Martino reports neither Wright nor the Mets have discussed any contract extension at this point. The 800-pound gorilla in the room, of course, will be the Mets' shaky financial situation.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Halos won't release Abreu[/h3]
8:24AM ET
[h5]Bobby Abreu | Angels [/h5]
Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia last week tried to downplay the trade demands of Bobby Abreu, who is left without a position following the signing of Albert Pujols.
Abreu is expendable in Anaheim since the Pujols deal will push first basemen Mark Trumbo and/or Kendrys Morales to the designated hitter spot Abreu occupied for most of 2011.
In Sunday's Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes the Angels are unlikely to outright release Abreu due to his $9 million contract, but their efforts to deal him have been fruitless.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Finding a home for Abreu
9:36AM ET
[h5]Peter Bourjos | Angels | Interested: Nationals? [/h5]
The Washington Nationals made big news Sunday by locking up franchise third baseman Ryan Zimmerman with a $100 million deal. Could the Nats now step up their search for a center fielder?
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Angels' Peter Bourjos is prominent on the Nats' wish list for center fielders, but the Halos asking price remains steep. With Torii Hunter entering the final year of his contract, Cafardo says the Angels have the means to retain both Bourjos and phenom Mike Trout.
The Nats brought back Rick Ankiel to compete for the center field job with Roger Bernadina, but wouldn't mind an upgrade.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards won't carry three catchers[/h3]
9:14AM ET
[h5]St. Louis Cardinals [/h5]
All-Star catcher Yadier Molina plans to borrow a page from the Albert Pujols handbook when it comes to negotiations on a contract extension.
Molina, a four-time Gold Glove winner who turns 30 in July, will be a free agent after the season and has no plans to give the Cardinals a hometown discount. He will make $7 million this year.
As for Molina's backup, manager Mike Mathney said Sunday there is little chance of the club opening with three catchers, barring an injury to Molina. Tony Cruz, Brian Anderson and nonroster veteran Koyie Hill will compete for the backup role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Craig's role and ETA[/h3]
8:54AM ET
[h5]Allen Craig | Cardinals [/h5]
Allen Craig had knee surgery in November and hopes to be back by Opening Day. He's not taking anything for granted, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, as the outfielder is putting in the work to get back strong and on time.
In Monday's Post Dispatch, Joe Strauss writes the Cardinals plan to play it safe with Craig this spring.
Once he's back he will likely play a similar role as he did a year ago: part-time player. Despite losing Albert Pujols to the Angels, the Cardinals do not have a starting spot to hand Craig. Lance Berkman is moving from the outfield to first base, but the club signed Carlos Beltran to take Berkman's place in right.
That leaves Craig a role player, with Matt Holliday in left and Jon Jay in center. Craig has experience, albeit limited, at third base and on the right side of the infield, so he could pick up a little extra playing time moving around more than he did a year ago. Stay tuned on that front. Craig does sound more than optimistic on when he'll be ready to to play.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Wright's future in Queens[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]David Wright | Mets [/h5]
New York Mets third baseman David Wright saw Ryan Zimmerman, his childhood friend, agree Sunday to a six-year, $100 million deal to remain at the hot corner for the Washington Nationals.
Are the Mets prepared to make similar arrangement with Wright, or will they look to unload the face of the franchise as he approaches free agency next winter? Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports Wright is unlikely to quikcly follow Jose Reyes out of town in a midseason deal, but if he wants a contract extension, he will have to show GM Sandy Alderson this year that he is worth another long-term investment.
That means Wright, who hit just .254 with 14 homers in an injury-plagued 2011 season, would have to have a big year, especially after the dimensions of Citi Field have been altered to be more hitter friendly.
Martino reports neither Wright nor the Mets have discussed any contract extension at this point. The 800-pound gorilla in the room, of course, will be the Mets' shaky financial situation.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Halos won't release Abreu[/h3]
8:24AM ET
[h5]Bobby Abreu | Angels [/h5]
Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia last week tried to downplay the trade demands of Bobby Abreu, who is left without a position following the signing of Albert Pujols.
Abreu is expendable in Anaheim since the Pujols deal will push first basemen Mark Trumbo and/or Kendrys Morales to the designated hitter spot Abreu occupied for most of 2011.
In Sunday's Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes the Angels are unlikely to outright release Abreu due to his $9 million contract, but their efforts to deal him have been fruitless.
- Doug Mittler
Finding a home for Abreu
8:00AM ET
[h5]Brandon Inge | Tigers | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
Brandon Inge was hot a happy camper when he learned that the Detroit Tigers had signed Prince Fielder and were moving Miguel Cabrera over to third base.
Inge could end up as a backup at second or third base, or he could end up with a ticket out of town.
In Sunday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney suggests that Inge could be an inexpensive third base solution for the Oakland Athletics, presuming the Tigers eat a lot of the infielder's $5.5 million salary.
Third base is in issue in Oakland as the club awaits word on the severity of a knee injury to Scott Sizemore.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Santana to start spring game next week[/h3]
7:36AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The discussion of Johan Santana's recovery from shoulder surgery normally includes words of caution, complete with the famous "one day at a time" mantra.
New York Mets manager Terry Collins has taken an optimistic public stance regarding his ace. "In my mind right now, in my heart, he will be ready (for Opening Day)," Collins said last week.
Santana, who missed all of the last season following surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, took another step forward with a 73-pitch bullpen session Sunday. Santana remains on track to pitch in a March 6 Grapefruit League game, and will hope for the best after that.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No setback for Howard[/h3]
7:20AM ET
[h5]Ryan Howard | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Amaro disagreed with Manuel's characterization of Howard's situation as a "setback." Trainer Scott Sheridan added that Howard's visit with the doctor this week was previously scheduled and was merely a checkup.
--
Ryan Howard took live batting practice this past week, the first such activity since he ruptured his Achhiles tendon last October. It appears as if the slugger is ahead of schedule, but he will see a doctor this coming week, reports Jim Salisbury.
General manager Ruben Amaro says it's just a precautionary check-up to make sure Howard is ready to move on to the next step in his rehab, but skipper Charlie Manuel used the words "little setback."
Howard is expected to return sometime in May and while he is out Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry, Jr. and Jim Thome are the candidates to play first base.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Contingency plans for Perez[/h3]
7:10AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced Sunday that Perez will miss four to six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
Batlimore's time of change.
Nationals gamble up on Zimmerman.
Implications of Braun decision.
Epstein compensation a relief for Cubs.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Inge a fit in Oakland?[/h3]
8:00AM ET
[h5]Brandon Inge | Tigers | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
Brandon Inge was hot a happy camper when he learned that the Detroit Tigers had signed Prince Fielder and were moving Miguel Cabrera over to third base.
Inge could end up as a backup at second or third base, or he could end up with a ticket out of town.
In Sunday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney suggests that Inge could be an inexpensive third base solution for the Oakland Athletics, presuming the Tigers eat a lot of the infielder's $5.5 million salary.
Third base is in issue in Oakland as the club awaits word on the severity of a knee injury to Scott Sizemore.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Santana to start spring game next week[/h3]
7:36AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The discussion of Johan Santana's recovery from shoulder surgery normally includes words of caution, complete with the famous "one day at a time" mantra.
New York Mets manager Terry Collins has taken an optimistic public stance regarding his ace. "In my mind right now, in my heart, he will be ready (for Opening Day)," Collins said last week.
Santana, who missed all of the last season following surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, took another step forward with a 73-pitch bullpen session Sunday. Santana remains on track to pitch in a March 6 Grapefruit League game, and will hope for the best after that.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No setback for Howard[/h3]
7:20AM ET
[h5]Ryan Howard | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Amaro disagreed with Manuel's characterization of Howard's situation as a "setback." Trainer Scott Sheridan added that Howard's visit with the doctor this week was previously scheduled and was merely a checkup.
--
Ryan Howard took live batting practice this past week, the first such activity since he ruptured his Achhiles tendon last October. It appears as if the slugger is ahead of schedule, but he will see a doctor this coming week, reports Jim Salisbury.
General manager Ruben Amaro says it's just a precautionary check-up to make sure Howard is ready to move on to the next step in his rehab, but skipper Charlie Manuel used the words "little setback."
Howard is expected to return sometime in May and while he is out Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry, Jr. and Jim Thome are the candidates to play first base.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Contingency plans for Perez[/h3]
7:10AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced Sunday that Perez will miss four to six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
Spoiler [+]
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette gave a quick tour of the Baltimore Orioles' gleaming new facilities Saturday, with the massive hydrotherapy pools and the rooms of diagnostic equipment and the gym where the players work out, which could be referred as a weight room warehouse, given its size.
More change is needed on the Orioles' roster (more specifically, better pitching) before Baltimore climbs into the thick of the AL East race, but the improvement in the team's working conditions, through the renovation of Ed Smith Stadium and the surrounding grounds, is a start. "I'd put this facility up against anybody's," said Showalter, who was instrumental in the changes. "It's part of the culture that people here are trying to develop, and it doesn't come free.
"It eliminates excuses."
There is an enormous hitters' background for the practice field closest to the facility, to replicate the conditions of the regular-season ballparks, which is not standard for spring training parks. There is a half field, used by infielders, or, as was the case on Saturday, for bunting. The whole place is trimmed in Orioles orange, from the covering around the central tower to the padding on the edges of the fences to the numbers painted on the outfield fences.
The Orioles have long been spring training nomads, with their minor leaguers and major leaguers working on different sides of the state of Florida for many years, and with the major leaguers training in cramped conditions in Ft. Lauderdale.
But now they have state-of-the-art facilities. If you want to get work done on a day with less than perfect conditions, there will be a field with FieldTurf, like that used in Tropicana Field. If the trainer wants you to climb into a tub of water to treat soreness, you won't have to wait. It's a step forward for the Orioles, and Showalter sees other signs of progress.
Mark Reynolds has dropped weight, which should help his play at third base. Baltimore should field plus defenders at catcher, first, second, shortstop and perhaps all three outfield positions. Nolan Reimold is healthy again, and if his physical improvement translates on the field, he could be a candidate to hit leadoff if Brian Roberts isn't ready to play. Non-roster invitee Nick Johnson is noticeably thinner, having lost almost 20 pounds, and when he plays, he gets on base.
There are good initial signs of progress for Brian Matusz, who is such a crucial part of the Orioles' future. "We saw how good he can be," said Showalter. "We saw him carve up good lineups."
Dylan Bundy was in high school a year ago, but he may be the greatest building block of hope in this camp, because of how refined he is. There will be debate in the Orioles' organization about where he should pitch in the minors this year, because throwing him against low-A ball hitters -- which would be a natural placement for someone as young as Bundy -- would probably be a waste of his time. The other day, Matt Wieters caught Bundy in a bullpen session and punctuated some pitches with this: "Ooooh." It was his reaction to Bundy's slider. "Oooh, I can work with that," Wieters said, loud enough for his manager to hear.
The Orioles feel better about their depth than they did a year ago and believe that overall, they might have improved in 15 spots on their 40-man roster.
But their challenge is to climb in the toughest division, over the New York Yankees, the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays; even Toronto is rich with prospects. The Orioles have the working conditions now to improve, and that will require more than mortar and paint.
[h3]Spring training notables[/h3]
• Wieters has many years left in his career, but folks who know him have long believed that he will manage or coach after his playing days are over. The other day, Showalter summoned Wieters into a meeting and asked him about an idea on a pick-off play. Wieters told him he'd think about it for a little while, and after a few minutes, he returned and ran through a list of reasons why the play wouldn't work.
• A decision on the San Francisco Giants' territorial rights is not imminent, says Giants president Larry Baer. The city of San Jose is getting ready, just in case, John Woolfolk writes. This situation has reached the point where you wonder who will fire the first challenge -- a lawsuit filed by the city of San Jose, or a push by the Oakland Athletics to have the owners vote on their move.
• The Red Sox made it official and banned alcohol in their clubhouse and on team flights returning to Boston. The whole sport has been shifting in that direction, anyway, in a change started years ago by the Athletics. It makes no sense for the teams, as businesses, to sustain the liability risk of having players leave the clubhouse with their blood-alcohol levels right near or higher than the legal limit for driving.
Big Papi backed the decision, Scott Lauber writes.
• Ryan Braun signed a lot of autographs on Saturday.
Mark Attanasio supports Braun and the testing system.
Braun's victory comes at a cost, players tell John Tomase. Braun's story flunks the test, too, writes Mike Lupica.
Baseball's drug-testing policy is flawed, writes Jere Longman. From the piece:
• A sound bite could wind up hurting Josh Hamilton, writes Gil LeBreton.
• Scott Sizemore suffered a knee injury on Saturday.
If the Athletics are looking for quick, cheap solutions at third base, I wonder if there's something to be worked out for Brandon Inge, who is trying to find a place to play with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit presumably would eat a lot of Inge's contract to trade him.
• Bob Nutting believes the Pittsburgh Pirates can win the NL Central, writes Rob Biertempfel.
• Alex Anthopoulos held court with reporters and talked about, among other things, Brett Cecil dropping 32 pounds during the offseason. From the story:
1. The Nationals will announce later today they have agreed to terms with Ryan Zimmerman for six years, plus a club option for a seventh year.
2. Mark Attanasio wants to finish contract extensions with his manager and GM by Opening Day.
3. The new rules will undermine the Astros' pledge, writes Zachary Levine.
4. The Texas Rangers want Josh Hamilton to play left field primarily, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Gerardo Parra has drawn interest from the Nationals. If the two sides were trying to find a fit, remember that the D-backs may or may not find themselves looking for a shortstop, depending on Stephen Drew's progress.
6. The Chicago Cubs are among the teams that can expect a major increase in TV revenue, Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
7. With Grady Sizemore hurt, Michael Brantley is likely to be the Indians' leadoff guy.
8. The Pirates' owner is open to contract extensions, although talks with Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen didn't result in any deals.
9. Terry Ryan is getting used to the sun and the hot seat again, writes Jim Souhan.
10. Andre Ethier didn't want to talk about his looming free agency.
11. A guy who used to work for the Los Angeles Dodgers says it could get worse if Frank McCourt insists on keeping ownership of the team's parking lots.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Charlie Manuel says Ryan Howard had a setback in his rehab; Ruben Amaro says he didn't.
2. Juan Nicasio is rebounding from a broken neck.
3. The plan is for Todd Helton to play in about 100-110 games this season, writes Patrick Saunders.
4. Joel Zumaya hurt his elbow Saturday.
5. Alex Rodriguez says he's healthy again. He understands less is more, writes Erik Boland. He's battling against time, writes Bob Klapisch.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Greene is the Cardinals' preferred candidate at second base, writes Derrick Goold.
2. Aaron Rowand hopes to make the cut with the Miami Marlins.
More change is needed on the Orioles' roster (more specifically, better pitching) before Baltimore climbs into the thick of the AL East race, but the improvement in the team's working conditions, through the renovation of Ed Smith Stadium and the surrounding grounds, is a start. "I'd put this facility up against anybody's," said Showalter, who was instrumental in the changes. "It's part of the culture that people here are trying to develop, and it doesn't come free.
"It eliminates excuses."
There is an enormous hitters' background for the practice field closest to the facility, to replicate the conditions of the regular-season ballparks, which is not standard for spring training parks. There is a half field, used by infielders, or, as was the case on Saturday, for bunting. The whole place is trimmed in Orioles orange, from the covering around the central tower to the padding on the edges of the fences to the numbers painted on the outfield fences.
The Orioles have long been spring training nomads, with their minor leaguers and major leaguers working on different sides of the state of Florida for many years, and with the major leaguers training in cramped conditions in Ft. Lauderdale.
But now they have state-of-the-art facilities. If you want to get work done on a day with less than perfect conditions, there will be a field with FieldTurf, like that used in Tropicana Field. If the trainer wants you to climb into a tub of water to treat soreness, you won't have to wait. It's a step forward for the Orioles, and Showalter sees other signs of progress.
Mark Reynolds has dropped weight, which should help his play at third base. Baltimore should field plus defenders at catcher, first, second, shortstop and perhaps all three outfield positions. Nolan Reimold is healthy again, and if his physical improvement translates on the field, he could be a candidate to hit leadoff if Brian Roberts isn't ready to play. Non-roster invitee Nick Johnson is noticeably thinner, having lost almost 20 pounds, and when he plays, he gets on base.
There are good initial signs of progress for Brian Matusz, who is such a crucial part of the Orioles' future. "We saw how good he can be," said Showalter. "We saw him carve up good lineups."
Dylan Bundy was in high school a year ago, but he may be the greatest building block of hope in this camp, because of how refined he is. There will be debate in the Orioles' organization about where he should pitch in the minors this year, because throwing him against low-A ball hitters -- which would be a natural placement for someone as young as Bundy -- would probably be a waste of his time. The other day, Matt Wieters caught Bundy in a bullpen session and punctuated some pitches with this: "Ooooh." It was his reaction to Bundy's slider. "Oooh, I can work with that," Wieters said, loud enough for his manager to hear.
The Orioles feel better about their depth than they did a year ago and believe that overall, they might have improved in 15 spots on their 40-man roster.
But their challenge is to climb in the toughest division, over the New York Yankees, the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays; even Toronto is rich with prospects. The Orioles have the working conditions now to improve, and that will require more than mortar and paint.
[h3]Spring training notables[/h3]
• Wieters has many years left in his career, but folks who know him have long believed that he will manage or coach after his playing days are over. The other day, Showalter summoned Wieters into a meeting and asked him about an idea on a pick-off play. Wieters told him he'd think about it for a little while, and after a few minutes, he returned and ran through a list of reasons why the play wouldn't work.
• A decision on the San Francisco Giants' territorial rights is not imminent, says Giants president Larry Baer. The city of San Jose is getting ready, just in case, John Woolfolk writes. This situation has reached the point where you wonder who will fire the first challenge -- a lawsuit filed by the city of San Jose, or a push by the Oakland Athletics to have the owners vote on their move.
• The Red Sox made it official and banned alcohol in their clubhouse and on team flights returning to Boston. The whole sport has been shifting in that direction, anyway, in a change started years ago by the Athletics. It makes no sense for the teams, as businesses, to sustain the liability risk of having players leave the clubhouse with their blood-alcohol levels right near or higher than the legal limit for driving.
Big Papi backed the decision, Scott Lauber writes.
• Ryan Braun signed a lot of autographs on Saturday.
Mark Attanasio supports Braun and the testing system.
Braun's victory comes at a cost, players tell John Tomase. Braun's story flunks the test, too, writes Mike Lupica.
Baseball's drug-testing policy is flawed, writes Jere Longman. From the piece:
- This was not a violation of protocol but rather the preferred approach, according to Travis T. Tygart, the chief executive of the United States Anti-Doping Agency. Any baseball player should prefer to have his sample in the custody of a trained professional -- one agreed to by his union -- than to have it sitting abandoned in some FedEx facility over the weekend, Tygart said. That way, the urine collector can be cross-examined about the chain of custody: What was the temperature of the basement? Did anyone else come into contact with the sample?
- Lawyers for Major League Baseball argued there was no evidence that Braun's sealed sample was tampered with before it reached a Montreal laboratory. And Braun apparently did not prove tampering had occurred. Nor, apparently, did he argue that the sample did not belong to him. Braun also did not challenge the science behind the positive test, Tygart said. Could the sample have degraded over the 48 hours in question to produce a false positive? "To say it degraded and created synthetic testosterone is contrary to logic and science," Tygart said.
- He added: "For synthetic testosterone to be in the urine, it had to come out of the body into the collection cup. Nothing voided would cause synthetic testosterone to magically appear in a urine sample. They never tried to argue that at all."
• A sound bite could wind up hurting Josh Hamilton, writes Gil LeBreton.
• Scott Sizemore suffered a knee injury on Saturday.
If the Athletics are looking for quick, cheap solutions at third base, I wonder if there's something to be worked out for Brandon Inge, who is trying to find a place to play with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit presumably would eat a lot of Inge's contract to trade him.
• Bob Nutting believes the Pittsburgh Pirates can win the NL Central, writes Rob Biertempfel.
• Alex Anthopoulos held court with reporters and talked about, among other things, Brett Cecil dropping 32 pounds during the offseason. From the story:
- Brett Cecil, who came into camp having lost 32 pounds following a disappointing 2011 season. Did the GM have to read him the riot act?
- AA: "That's not my style, laying down the law. I called him, beginning of November, and I just told him I thought he was at a crossroads in his career. His ability is such that he should be a part of this rotation, shouldn't have to think about getting optioned and so on."
1. The Nationals will announce later today they have agreed to terms with Ryan Zimmerman for six years, plus a club option for a seventh year.
2. Mark Attanasio wants to finish contract extensions with his manager and GM by Opening Day.
3. The new rules will undermine the Astros' pledge, writes Zachary Levine.
4. The Texas Rangers want Josh Hamilton to play left field primarily, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Gerardo Parra has drawn interest from the Nationals. If the two sides were trying to find a fit, remember that the D-backs may or may not find themselves looking for a shortstop, depending on Stephen Drew's progress.
6. The Chicago Cubs are among the teams that can expect a major increase in TV revenue, Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
7. With Grady Sizemore hurt, Michael Brantley is likely to be the Indians' leadoff guy.
8. The Pirates' owner is open to contract extensions, although talks with Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen didn't result in any deals.
9. Terry Ryan is getting used to the sun and the hot seat again, writes Jim Souhan.
10. Andre Ethier didn't want to talk about his looming free agency.
11. A guy who used to work for the Los Angeles Dodgers says it could get worse if Frank McCourt insists on keeping ownership of the team's parking lots.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Charlie Manuel says Ryan Howard had a setback in his rehab; Ruben Amaro says he didn't.
2. Juan Nicasio is rebounding from a broken neck.
3. The plan is for Todd Helton to play in about 100-110 games this season, writes Patrick Saunders.
4. Joel Zumaya hurt his elbow Saturday.
5. Alex Rodriguez says he's healthy again. He understands less is more, writes Erik Boland. He's battling against time, writes Bob Klapisch.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Greene is the Cardinals' preferred candidate at second base, writes Derrick Goold.
2. Aaron Rowand hopes to make the cut with the Miami Marlins.
Nationals gamble up on Zimmerman.
Spoiler [+]
BRADENTON, Fla. -- Joel Hanrahan stared at his phone at Pittsburgh Pirates camp on Sunday, at Twitter. He was checking out the initial details of the new six-year, $100 million extension that old friend Ryan Zimmerman signed, including the $10 million deferred for a personal services contract, because the deal essentially ties the third baseman to the Washington Nationals for the rest of his life.
Hanrahan had other things to do, but if he had lived on Twitter during the rest of the afternoon, he would've seen a lot of questions about whether it was a good decision for Washington to commit $126 million during the next eight years to Zimmerman. Set aside Miguel Cabrera from this conversation for a moment, because we don't know yet whether his transition to third base is going to stick; Zimmerman's deal will rank second among other third basemen.
[h4]Hot corner dollars[/h4]
Largest annual average value in MLB history for third basemen (Note: Young played 3B at time of deal).
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
AAV
[/th][th=""]
Seasons
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
$27.5M
[/td][td]
2008-17
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Ryan Zimmerman
[/td][td]
$16.7M
[/td][td]
2014-19
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Adrian Beltre
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2011-15
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Michael Young
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2009-13
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Aramis Ramirez
[/td][td]
$15.0M
[/td][td]
2007-11
[/td][/tr][/table]
It's an enormous contract and commitment, and Zimmerman's production is not mind-blowing. He's never had a full season in the majors in which he posted an OPS of .900, and he's coming off a year in which he's hit .289 with 12 homers in 101 games. During the last four seasons, he's played in 506 games, an average of about 127 per year; he's missed a lot of games.
But right now, the only position in the major leagues which may have less high-impact talent than third base could be catcher, and there is no question that Zimmerman is an elite player at his position.
From Justin Havens of ESPN Research, the most wins above replacement by primary third basemen since 2006 (source: FanGraphs):
Alex Rodriguez: 32.6
David Wright: 30.6
Zimmerman: 29.4
Chipper Jones: 27.2
Adrian Beltre: 27.0
When healthy, Zimmerman's been a tremendous player, and there is nothing about the injuries that he's suffered to this point that would necessarily have a long-term effect -- unlike a starting pitcher with a shoulder injury. He is healthy now, and there is no reason to think he can't be an excellent player for years to come.
Beyond that, the Nationals are clearly comfortable with Zimmerman, who could be the living definition of the phrase "even-keeled." Washington GM Mike Rizzo felt, during the negotiations, that if the Nationals didn't give Zimmerman a full no-trade clause, the third baseman wouldn't sign the deal. So the Nationals relented.
Will it pay off? We'll see. But it seems like a reasonable investment in a reliable and productive player by a team with significant resources.
Zimmerman is with the Nationals for the long haul. Here are some highlights from the Zimmerman press conference, from Adam Kilgore.
Zimmerman will make $126 million during the next eight seasons, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Reporting from Pirates camp[/h3]
Nate McLouth can offer a unique perspective on the Pirates, because he left Pittsburgh early in the summer of 2009 after being traded to the Atlanta Braves, and now he's back two-and-a-half years later. "Everything is a lot more positive," McLouth said, standing in front of his locker. McLouth was talking about everything from the training to the food, but he was also talking about how the players feel and carry themselves.
This was the focus of a lot of the work last season, Clint Hurdle recalls -- getting the Pirates to raise expectations for themselves, to alter the perception of what they could be. In June and July, Pittsburgh played well, hovering within range of the division lead.
The Pirates collapsed in the last two months after their rotation was hit by injuries -- Charlie Morton was probably more hurt than he let on. Now, Hurdle says, the challenge is to build on 2011 and carry that vision of what could be throughout an entire 162-game season.
Hurdle had a voice in bringing in Clint Barmes to be the shortstop, after managing Barmes in Houston, and what was immediately noticed, besides his defensive skills, was how he had gone to second baseman Neil Walker and told him the two needed to learn how the other worked around the bag. Barmes has stayed late to work with young infielders, and in the same way, A.J. Burnett has immediately asserted himself as something of a leader among the pitchers.
By the time Burnett's tenure with the New York Yankees had ended, he had fallen out of favor with the fan base and a trade was needed, but general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi will testify to this on his behalf: Burnett always worked, always tried to get better, was always accountable and professional. The Pirates had signed Rod Barajas long before they traded for Burnett, and Barajas fully endorsed the Burnett trade; in the same way, Burnett believes Barajas will help the Pirates' pitchers.
Pedro Alvarez is in better physical condition, and to hear him describe it, he is in a better place mentally, with a better swing. His batting practice this spring reminds the Pirates of what they saw when Alvarez was at his best for them in 2009. Rather than pulling everything between first base and the second baseman, he is driving the ball through the middle of the diamond. The timing of a turnaround for him would be pivotal for the Pirates, because this is a crucial year for him. With a bounce-back season, he could demonstrate he's capable of being a good player at the major league level -- which he strongly believes -- and if he struggles, the view of what he could be will change measurably.
Andrew McCutchen is the most important player in the Pirates' universe, and whether or not he signs a long-term deal will be viewed by the Pittsburgh fan base as a barometer of progress. But the Pirates have about two years to work out a deal before they would have to go head-to-head with the question of whether they need to trade McCutchen before he becomes eligible for free agency.
Until then, they'll continue to work to get better, to end two decades of losing. How far have they gotten, and how far can they go this year, in what is generally a weakened division? Alvarez and Burnett will have a lot to do with that this year. But clearly, there has been progress, as McLouth has seen.
The Pirates will be flexible in their contract talks with McCutchen, writes Rob Biertempfel.
McLouth's reunion has a better feel, writes Bill Brink.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• By the way: Can anybody remember a year in which a newcomer is a more prohibitive favorite to win Rookie of the Year than the Rays' Matt Moore will be this year?
• Chris Perez is going to miss spring training. Not a big deal at all, because he'll still be ready early in the year, and Vinnie Pestano is a terrific fill-in.
• Josh Hamilton keeps talking about his contract. He expects to become a free agent, writes Bob Nightengale.
• Vernon Wells has retooled his swing, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
• Miguel Cabrera is doing his work at third base, writes **** Scanlon.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Jose Mijares arrived late in camp.
2. Sean Marshall is close to working out an extension with the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
3. Mike Leake hopes the Reds don't limit his innings.
4. Kosuke Fukudome gives the Chicago White Sox what they need.
5. Ruben Tejada was on time, which means that in the eyes of his manager, he was late.
6. There's no talk of a new David Wright deal, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The St. Louis Cardinals are being cautious with Allen Craig.
2. Tommy Hanson is ready to move forward after his spring training accident, writes Jeff Schultz.
3. Buster Posey took swings in live batting practice and felt great.
4. Joel Zumaya's season is over; this could signal the end of Zumaya's career, writes John Shipley.
5. Scott Sizemore is getting his knee MRI today.
6. Pablo Sandoval is OK after getting smoked.
7. Carlos Villanueva has a mystery ailment.
8. Ryan Howard has an open wound, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher was shut down.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Matt Harrison still fits in the Texas rotation, writes Gil LeBreton.
2. Carlos Lee is playing for his future.
3. The Padres' lineup is a topic of discussion, as Bill Center writes. The Padres think that Yonder Alonso will be a better fit.
Hanrahan had other things to do, but if he had lived on Twitter during the rest of the afternoon, he would've seen a lot of questions about whether it was a good decision for Washington to commit $126 million during the next eight years to Zimmerman. Set aside Miguel Cabrera from this conversation for a moment, because we don't know yet whether his transition to third base is going to stick; Zimmerman's deal will rank second among other third basemen.
[h4]Hot corner dollars[/h4]
Largest annual average value in MLB history for third basemen (Note: Young played 3B at time of deal).
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
AAV
[/th][th=""]
Seasons
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
$27.5M
[/td][td]
2008-17
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Ryan Zimmerman
[/td][td]
$16.7M
[/td][td]
2014-19
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Adrian Beltre
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2011-15
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Michael Young
[/td][td]
$16.0M
[/td][td]
2009-13
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Aramis Ramirez
[/td][td]
$15.0M
[/td][td]
2007-11
[/td][/tr][/table]
It's an enormous contract and commitment, and Zimmerman's production is not mind-blowing. He's never had a full season in the majors in which he posted an OPS of .900, and he's coming off a year in which he's hit .289 with 12 homers in 101 games. During the last four seasons, he's played in 506 games, an average of about 127 per year; he's missed a lot of games.
But right now, the only position in the major leagues which may have less high-impact talent than third base could be catcher, and there is no question that Zimmerman is an elite player at his position.
From Justin Havens of ESPN Research, the most wins above replacement by primary third basemen since 2006 (source: FanGraphs):
Alex Rodriguez: 32.6
David Wright: 30.6
Zimmerman: 29.4
Chipper Jones: 27.2
Adrian Beltre: 27.0
When healthy, Zimmerman's been a tremendous player, and there is nothing about the injuries that he's suffered to this point that would necessarily have a long-term effect -- unlike a starting pitcher with a shoulder injury. He is healthy now, and there is no reason to think he can't be an excellent player for years to come.
Beyond that, the Nationals are clearly comfortable with Zimmerman, who could be the living definition of the phrase "even-keeled." Washington GM Mike Rizzo felt, during the negotiations, that if the Nationals didn't give Zimmerman a full no-trade clause, the third baseman wouldn't sign the deal. So the Nationals relented.
Will it pay off? We'll see. But it seems like a reasonable investment in a reliable and productive player by a team with significant resources.
Zimmerman is with the Nationals for the long haul. Here are some highlights from the Zimmerman press conference, from Adam Kilgore.
Zimmerman will make $126 million during the next eight seasons, writes Amanda Comak.
[h3]Reporting from Pirates camp[/h3]
Nate McLouth can offer a unique perspective on the Pirates, because he left Pittsburgh early in the summer of 2009 after being traded to the Atlanta Braves, and now he's back two-and-a-half years later. "Everything is a lot more positive," McLouth said, standing in front of his locker. McLouth was talking about everything from the training to the food, but he was also talking about how the players feel and carry themselves.
This was the focus of a lot of the work last season, Clint Hurdle recalls -- getting the Pirates to raise expectations for themselves, to alter the perception of what they could be. In June and July, Pittsburgh played well, hovering within range of the division lead.
The Pirates collapsed in the last two months after their rotation was hit by injuries -- Charlie Morton was probably more hurt than he let on. Now, Hurdle says, the challenge is to build on 2011 and carry that vision of what could be throughout an entire 162-game season.
Hurdle had a voice in bringing in Clint Barmes to be the shortstop, after managing Barmes in Houston, and what was immediately noticed, besides his defensive skills, was how he had gone to second baseman Neil Walker and told him the two needed to learn how the other worked around the bag. Barmes has stayed late to work with young infielders, and in the same way, A.J. Burnett has immediately asserted himself as something of a leader among the pitchers.
By the time Burnett's tenure with the New York Yankees had ended, he had fallen out of favor with the fan base and a trade was needed, but general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi will testify to this on his behalf: Burnett always worked, always tried to get better, was always accountable and professional. The Pirates had signed Rod Barajas long before they traded for Burnett, and Barajas fully endorsed the Burnett trade; in the same way, Burnett believes Barajas will help the Pirates' pitchers.
Pedro Alvarez is in better physical condition, and to hear him describe it, he is in a better place mentally, with a better swing. His batting practice this spring reminds the Pirates of what they saw when Alvarez was at his best for them in 2009. Rather than pulling everything between first base and the second baseman, he is driving the ball through the middle of the diamond. The timing of a turnaround for him would be pivotal for the Pirates, because this is a crucial year for him. With a bounce-back season, he could demonstrate he's capable of being a good player at the major league level -- which he strongly believes -- and if he struggles, the view of what he could be will change measurably.
Andrew McCutchen is the most important player in the Pirates' universe, and whether or not he signs a long-term deal will be viewed by the Pittsburgh fan base as a barometer of progress. But the Pirates have about two years to work out a deal before they would have to go head-to-head with the question of whether they need to trade McCutchen before he becomes eligible for free agency.
Until then, they'll continue to work to get better, to end two decades of losing. How far have they gotten, and how far can they go this year, in what is generally a weakened division? Alvarez and Burnett will have a lot to do with that this year. But clearly, there has been progress, as McLouth has seen.
The Pirates will be flexible in their contract talks with McCutchen, writes Rob Biertempfel.
McLouth's reunion has a better feel, writes Bill Brink.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• By the way: Can anybody remember a year in which a newcomer is a more prohibitive favorite to win Rookie of the Year than the Rays' Matt Moore will be this year?
• Chris Perez is going to miss spring training. Not a big deal at all, because he'll still be ready early in the year, and Vinnie Pestano is a terrific fill-in.
• Josh Hamilton keeps talking about his contract. He expects to become a free agent, writes Bob Nightengale.
• Vernon Wells has retooled his swing, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
• Miguel Cabrera is doing his work at third base, writes **** Scanlon.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Jose Mijares arrived late in camp.
2. Sean Marshall is close to working out an extension with the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
3. Mike Leake hopes the Reds don't limit his innings.
4. Kosuke Fukudome gives the Chicago White Sox what they need.
5. Ruben Tejada was on time, which means that in the eyes of his manager, he was late.
6. There's no talk of a new David Wright deal, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The St. Louis Cardinals are being cautious with Allen Craig.
2. Tommy Hanson is ready to move forward after his spring training accident, writes Jeff Schultz.
3. Buster Posey took swings in live batting practice and felt great.
4. Joel Zumaya's season is over; this could signal the end of Zumaya's career, writes John Shipley.
5. Scott Sizemore is getting his knee MRI today.
6. Pablo Sandoval is OK after getting smoked.
7. Carlos Villanueva has a mystery ailment.
8. Ryan Howard has an open wound, writes Jim Salisbury.
9. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher was shut down.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Matt Harrison still fits in the Texas rotation, writes Gil LeBreton.
2. Carlos Lee is playing for his future.
3. The Padres' lineup is a topic of discussion, as Bill Center writes. The Padres think that Yonder Alonso will be a better fit.
Implications of Braun decision.
Spoiler [+]
The Ryan Braun decision is now and will forever be baseball's Rorschach test. Ask 10 people what they see, and what it means, and you'll get 10 different perspectives. And the view of this from all corners of the sport is completely different:
1. Ryan Braun
He has maintained his innocence from the outset and hired expert lawyers to lead his defense and argue the appeal. And he won.
Would anyone in his position handle this differently than he did?
He faced a 50-game suspension and a penalty that would've completely wrecked his reputation. Any player in his situation -- screaming immediately that he did nothing wrong -- would challenge and scrutinize the process in every way possible.
Braun is entitled to the appeal, according to the collective bargaining agreement, and his representatives argued their case. The pivotal arbitrator, Shyam Das, agreed with their argument.
But here's the reality for Braun: No matter what happens with this case going forward, he'll never be able to get his reputation fully restored in the way that he wants.
2. Major League Baseball
League officials were stunned and angered by the decision, which is an enormous problem for them. Since the March 17, 2005, hearing in front of Congress -- the day Rafael Palmeiro angrily insisted upon his innocence -- MLB has diligently worked to strengthen and foster a stringent testing program. Now, in the first instance in which an award-winning player tested positive, the player has won his appeal for the first time, raising a whole lot of questions.
Some of those questions are of the Bigfoot/Grassy Knoll variety, with a small minority of fans wondering if it's coincidence that Braun plays for the team formerly owned by commissioner Bud Selig -- and there's really nothing MLB can do about such conspiracy theories.
The more relevant questions are about the system, the protocol and the appeal process. In the past, MLB and the Players Association have delved into the language of their agreement and made adjustments, and now all of that will have to be revisited.
The current appeal process effectively places an enormous amount of power in the hands of Das, because the votes of two of the three panelists are basically locked in. Rob Manfred, who works for Major League Baseball and is part of the panel, has never voted in favor of an appeal, and Michael Weiner, the head of the Players Association and a part of the panel, has never voted against an appeal.
Having Manfred and Weiner on the appeals panel would seem to be as worthwhile as having operatives from the Democratic and Republican parties weigh in on CNN after a presidential debate: You know what they're going to say, because they're partisan.
So MLB should ask for a change in the structure of the appeals panel. Get three impartial arbitrators on a panel and let them judge, so that the ultimate power isn't in the hands of just one person, as it was in this case.
But no matter what route Major League Baseball takes, it'll never get full satisfaction; from the perspective of baseball officials, this is a blemish that cannot be removed.
3. The players who support the Braun decision
There are a lot of players who fear testing, believing that there are many factors completely out of their control. They fret about being slipped something in a bar, and they have worried that they can be taken down unfairly. Some players have viewed the past appeal results -- no player had ever won an appeal before Braun -- as a weakness of the system, rather than a strength. From their perspective, the fact that a player won an appeal is a good thing, a sign that the system works.
4. The players who are against the Braun decision
And there are a lot of them. I spoke with veteran players on Thursday night who were angry with how this played out. They want a strong, unyielding testing system, a protocol and appeal process that will be definitive in the aftermath of a positive test. "It's B.S.," one player said, unintentionally using the same phrase that Braun did in defending himself.
There are players upset with Weiner's role in the appeal process, wondering if he should be serving the greater good of the Players Association in maintaining a rock-solid drug-testing program that will protect the interests of clean players, rather than that of one player. It's a philosophical element of this discussion that has been going on since the idea of testing was first rejected by former MLBPA director Don Fehr and former COO Gene Orza.
5. What's next?
In the aftermath of the decision, I got a flood of tweets from folks -- most of them Brewers fans -- demanding that I deem Braun clean and innocent.
Look, I've never felt comfortable rendering the word "clean" on anyone. If my brother played Major League Baseball, I would never say he's clean, because the only person who can truly know is the player.
It's clear that the system has loopholes, most notably with human growth hormone, and it's possible for cheaters to get through without being caught. Based on what we know, it's possible to beat the system -- and there's probably a lot we don't know about the latest wave of performance-enhancing drugs designed to beat the testing.
What we can say about Braun, unequivocally, is that he's never been suspended under the terms of baseball's drug-testing policy. That was true on Sept. 30, 2011, and it's true today. That's all we can know.
The only person who can know, for sure, whether Braun is clean and innocent is Braun himself. Nothing that has happened in the last five months has changed that.
Braun made history, writes Tom Haudricourt. Teammate Corey Hart said Braun is ecstatic.
There is a wide range of opinions on what this test means:
All Braun will be is clean enough, writes Jim Litke. Braun needs to keep swinging away, writes Michael Hunt.
Troy Tulowitzki talked to Troy Renck of The Denver Post, and had this to say:
"You get a scenario like this where a guy is presumed guilty and now he's innocent, it makes you feel like it could happen to anybody. I think we all need to watch out for our protection. The testing might need to be reviewed."
The secrecy of the drug-testing program is a problem, writes Gwen Knapp.
Major League Baseball is the big loser in this, writes Joel Sherman. Braun was acquitted but not exonerated, writes Mike Lupica.
Braun's appeal shows that the system works, writes Larry Stone.
Questions linger, writes Tyler Kepner.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. If Jose Reyes gets hurt, Hanley Ramirez will stay at third base, says Ozzie Guillen.
2. Justin Verlander attempted to recruit Roy Oswalt.
3. Brian Wilson could be headed to free agency, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Ryan Zimmerman's contract talks have a lot of hurdles, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Dale Sveum might use Alfonso Soriano in the cleanup spot. Soriano is an accomplished player, and yet he's never had a natural spot in the lineup.
6. If you don't win, changes are made, says Kenny Williams.
7. Duane Below is the frontrunner to be the No. 5 starter for Detroit.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The shift of Miguel Cabrera to third base has begun, writes John Lowe. Jim Leyland says the Detroit defense is pretty good.
2. Stephen Drew is showing good mobility, writes Nick Piecoro.
3. Ryan Roberts is working harder.
4. The Jays' rebuilding talk is wearing thin.
5. Chipper Jones endured sunburn and fat jokes.
6. The Phillies are looking to make changes with their hitters, and it starts with Jimmy Rollins.
7. Joe Torre withdrew his bid to buy the Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
8. A Kansas City catcher needs surgery.
9. Freddy Sanchez believes he'll be ready for Opening Day.
10. Kevin Frandsen has torn his Achilles in the past, and he has some thoughts that might be worthwhile for Ryan Howard.
11. Chase Utley plays through pain, writes Matt Gelb.
12. Jake Peavy says he's healthy and ready to pull his weight, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.
13. Bobby Jenks says mistakes were made with his diagnosis.
14. Johan Santana threw again.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Chris Gimenez has joined the battle for playing time with the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
2. Brian Matusz is looking to put 2011 behind him, as Eduardo Encina writes.
3. Alfredo Aceves is ready to fit into any role.
1. Ryan Braun
He has maintained his innocence from the outset and hired expert lawyers to lead his defense and argue the appeal. And he won.
Would anyone in his position handle this differently than he did?
He faced a 50-game suspension and a penalty that would've completely wrecked his reputation. Any player in his situation -- screaming immediately that he did nothing wrong -- would challenge and scrutinize the process in every way possible.
Braun is entitled to the appeal, according to the collective bargaining agreement, and his representatives argued their case. The pivotal arbitrator, Shyam Das, agreed with their argument.
But here's the reality for Braun: No matter what happens with this case going forward, he'll never be able to get his reputation fully restored in the way that he wants.
2. Major League Baseball
League officials were stunned and angered by the decision, which is an enormous problem for them. Since the March 17, 2005, hearing in front of Congress -- the day Rafael Palmeiro angrily insisted upon his innocence -- MLB has diligently worked to strengthen and foster a stringent testing program. Now, in the first instance in which an award-winning player tested positive, the player has won his appeal for the first time, raising a whole lot of questions.
Some of those questions are of the Bigfoot/Grassy Knoll variety, with a small minority of fans wondering if it's coincidence that Braun plays for the team formerly owned by commissioner Bud Selig -- and there's really nothing MLB can do about such conspiracy theories.
The more relevant questions are about the system, the protocol and the appeal process. In the past, MLB and the Players Association have delved into the language of their agreement and made adjustments, and now all of that will have to be revisited.
The current appeal process effectively places an enormous amount of power in the hands of Das, because the votes of two of the three panelists are basically locked in. Rob Manfred, who works for Major League Baseball and is part of the panel, has never voted in favor of an appeal, and Michael Weiner, the head of the Players Association and a part of the panel, has never voted against an appeal.
Having Manfred and Weiner on the appeals panel would seem to be as worthwhile as having operatives from the Democratic and Republican parties weigh in on CNN after a presidential debate: You know what they're going to say, because they're partisan.
So MLB should ask for a change in the structure of the appeals panel. Get three impartial arbitrators on a panel and let them judge, so that the ultimate power isn't in the hands of just one person, as it was in this case.
But no matter what route Major League Baseball takes, it'll never get full satisfaction; from the perspective of baseball officials, this is a blemish that cannot be removed.
3. The players who support the Braun decision
There are a lot of players who fear testing, believing that there are many factors completely out of their control. They fret about being slipped something in a bar, and they have worried that they can be taken down unfairly. Some players have viewed the past appeal results -- no player had ever won an appeal before Braun -- as a weakness of the system, rather than a strength. From their perspective, the fact that a player won an appeal is a good thing, a sign that the system works.
4. The players who are against the Braun decision
And there are a lot of them. I spoke with veteran players on Thursday night who were angry with how this played out. They want a strong, unyielding testing system, a protocol and appeal process that will be definitive in the aftermath of a positive test. "It's B.S.," one player said, unintentionally using the same phrase that Braun did in defending himself.
There are players upset with Weiner's role in the appeal process, wondering if he should be serving the greater good of the Players Association in maintaining a rock-solid drug-testing program that will protect the interests of clean players, rather than that of one player. It's a philosophical element of this discussion that has been going on since the idea of testing was first rejected by former MLBPA director Don Fehr and former COO Gene Orza.
5. What's next?
In the aftermath of the decision, I got a flood of tweets from folks -- most of them Brewers fans -- demanding that I deem Braun clean and innocent.
Look, I've never felt comfortable rendering the word "clean" on anyone. If my brother played Major League Baseball, I would never say he's clean, because the only person who can truly know is the player.
It's clear that the system has loopholes, most notably with human growth hormone, and it's possible for cheaters to get through without being caught. Based on what we know, it's possible to beat the system -- and there's probably a lot we don't know about the latest wave of performance-enhancing drugs designed to beat the testing.
What we can say about Braun, unequivocally, is that he's never been suspended under the terms of baseball's drug-testing policy. That was true on Sept. 30, 2011, and it's true today. That's all we can know.
The only person who can know, for sure, whether Braun is clean and innocent is Braun himself. Nothing that has happened in the last five months has changed that.
Braun made history, writes Tom Haudricourt. Teammate Corey Hart said Braun is ecstatic.
There is a wide range of opinions on what this test means:
All Braun will be is clean enough, writes Jim Litke. Braun needs to keep swinging away, writes Michael Hunt.
Troy Tulowitzki talked to Troy Renck of The Denver Post, and had this to say:
"You get a scenario like this where a guy is presumed guilty and now he's innocent, it makes you feel like it could happen to anybody. I think we all need to watch out for our protection. The testing might need to be reviewed."
The secrecy of the drug-testing program is a problem, writes Gwen Knapp.
Major League Baseball is the big loser in this, writes Joel Sherman. Braun was acquitted but not exonerated, writes Mike Lupica.
Braun's appeal shows that the system works, writes Larry Stone.
Questions linger, writes Tyler Kepner.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. If Jose Reyes gets hurt, Hanley Ramirez will stay at third base, says Ozzie Guillen.
2. Justin Verlander attempted to recruit Roy Oswalt.
3. Brian Wilson could be headed to free agency, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Ryan Zimmerman's contract talks have a lot of hurdles, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Dale Sveum might use Alfonso Soriano in the cleanup spot. Soriano is an accomplished player, and yet he's never had a natural spot in the lineup.
6. If you don't win, changes are made, says Kenny Williams.
7. Duane Below is the frontrunner to be the No. 5 starter for Detroit.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The shift of Miguel Cabrera to third base has begun, writes John Lowe. Jim Leyland says the Detroit defense is pretty good.
2. Stephen Drew is showing good mobility, writes Nick Piecoro.
3. Ryan Roberts is working harder.
4. The Jays' rebuilding talk is wearing thin.
5. Chipper Jones endured sunburn and fat jokes.
6. The Phillies are looking to make changes with their hitters, and it starts with Jimmy Rollins.
7. Joe Torre withdrew his bid to buy the Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
8. A Kansas City catcher needs surgery.
9. Freddy Sanchez believes he'll be ready for Opening Day.
10. Kevin Frandsen has torn his Achilles in the past, and he has some thoughts that might be worthwhile for Ryan Howard.
11. Chase Utley plays through pain, writes Matt Gelb.
12. Jake Peavy says he's healthy and ready to pull his weight, writes Daryl Van Schouwen.
13. Bobby Jenks says mistakes were made with his diagnosis.
14. Johan Santana threw again.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Chris Gimenez has joined the battle for playing time with the Rays, writes Marc Topkin.
2. Brian Matusz is looking to put 2011 behind him, as Eduardo Encina writes.
3. Alfredo Aceves is ready to fit into any role.
Epstein compensation a relief for Cubs.
Spoiler [+]
After all that time and drama, the Red Sox get ... a relief prospect?
In the deal that finally ends the compensation battle over Theo Epstein's departure from Boston for Chicago, the Cubs have shipped the Red Sox relief pitcher Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter -- this one, at least -- has a tremendous arm, working 96-100 mph in one-inning stints and still sitting mid-90s when he's stretched out to two innings. He'll show solid to above-average off-speed weapons, including a hard mid-80s slider, although his changeup can come out more like an average fastball that's just doing hitters a favor. He's already 26, and has a long history of injuries dating back to his freshman year at Kent State; he has never shown he could hold up under a starter's workload, while his command is consistently below-average, ruling out any kind of return to the rotation. In relief, however, he should miss plenty of bats, but whether he's a ninth-inning guy or just a middle reliever depends on whether he can throw quality strikes. He's good inventory, but not an elite prospect.
For the Cubs, this is probably a relief, no pun intended (OK, pun intended). They gave up a prospect outside of their top 10 in exchange for an executive who, with the front office team he's brought in, should add more wins to the Cubs over the next five years than Carpenter will likely produce in his whole career. The Red Sox can stash Carpenter in Triple-A and bring him up whenever they need a relief arm in the big leagues, with the hope that eventually he improves his command, or at least his control, enough to be trusted with high-leverage work.
In the deal that finally ends the compensation battle over Theo Epstein's departure from Boston for Chicago, the Cubs have shipped the Red Sox relief pitcher Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter -- this one, at least -- has a tremendous arm, working 96-100 mph in one-inning stints and still sitting mid-90s when he's stretched out to two innings. He'll show solid to above-average off-speed weapons, including a hard mid-80s slider, although his changeup can come out more like an average fastball that's just doing hitters a favor. He's already 26, and has a long history of injuries dating back to his freshman year at Kent State; he has never shown he could hold up under a starter's workload, while his command is consistently below-average, ruling out any kind of return to the rotation. In relief, however, he should miss plenty of bats, but whether he's a ninth-inning guy or just a middle reliever depends on whether he can throw quality strikes. He's good inventory, but not an elite prospect.
For the Cubs, this is probably a relief, no pun intended (OK, pun intended). They gave up a prospect outside of their top 10 in exchange for an executive who, with the front office team he's brought in, should add more wins to the Cubs over the next five years than Carpenter will likely produce in his whole career. The Red Sox can stash Carpenter in Triple-A and bring him up whenever they need a relief arm in the big leagues, with the hope that eventually he improves his command, or at least his control, enough to be trusted with high-leverage work.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Nats interested in Bourjos[/h3]
9:36AM ET
[h5]Peter Bourjos | Angels | Interested: Nationals? [/h5]
The Washington Nationals made big news Sunday by locking up franchise third baseman Ryan Zimmerman with a $100 million deal. Could the Nats now step up their search for a center fielder?
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Angels' Peter Bourjos is prominent on the Nats' wish list for center fielders, but the Halos asking price remains steep. With Torii Hunter entering the final year of his contract, Cafardo says the Angels have the means to retain both Bourjos and phenom Mike Trout.
The Nats brought back Rick Ankiel to compete for the center field job with Roger Bernadina, but wouldn't mind an upgrade.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards won't carry three catchers[/h3]
9:14AM ET
[h5]St. Louis Cardinals [/h5]
All-Star catcher Yadier Molina plans to borrow a page from the Albert Pujols handbook when it comes to negotiations on a contract extension.
Molina, a four-time Gold Glove winner who turns 30 in July, will be a free agent after the season and has no plans to give the Cardinals a hometown discount. He will make $7 million this year.
As for Molina's backup, manager Mike Mathney said Sunday there is little chance of the club opening with three catchers, barring an injury to Molina. Tony Cruz, Brian Anderson and nonroster veteran Koyie Hill will compete for the backup role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Craig's role and ETA[/h3]
8:54AM ET
[h5]Allen Craig | Cardinals [/h5]
Allen Craig had knee surgery in November and hopes to be back by Opening Day. He's not taking anything for granted, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, as the outfielder is putting in the work to get back strong and on time.
In Monday's Post Dispatch, Joe Strauss writes the Cardinals plan to play it safe with Craig this spring.
Once he's back he will likely play a similar role as he did a year ago: part-time player. Despite losing Albert Pujols to the Angels, the Cardinals do not have a starting spot to hand Craig. Lance Berkman is moving from the outfield to first base, but the club signed Carlos Beltran to take Berkman's place in right.
That leaves Craig a role player, with Matt Holliday in left and Jon Jay in center. Craig has experience, albeit limited, at third base and on the right side of the infield, so he could pick up a little extra playing time moving around more than he did a year ago. Stay tuned on that front. Craig does sound more than optimistic on when he'll be ready to to play.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Wright's future in Queens[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]David Wright | Mets [/h5]
New York Mets third baseman David Wright saw Ryan Zimmerman, his childhood friend, agree Sunday to a six-year, $100 million deal to remain at the hot corner for the Washington Nationals.
Are the Mets prepared to make similar arrangement with Wright, or will they look to unload the face of the franchise as he approaches free agency next winter? Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports Wright is unlikely to quikcly follow Jose Reyes out of town in a midseason deal, but if he wants a contract extension, he will have to show GM Sandy Alderson this year that he is worth another long-term investment.
That means Wright, who hit just .254 with 14 homers in an injury-plagued 2011 season, would have to have a big year, especially after the dimensions of Citi Field have been altered to be more hitter friendly.
Martino reports neither Wright nor the Mets have discussed any contract extension at this point. The 800-pound gorilla in the room, of course, will be the Mets' shaky financial situation.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Halos won't release Abreu[/h3]
8:24AM ET
[h5]Bobby Abreu | Angels [/h5]
Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia last week tried to downplay the trade demands of Bobby Abreu, who is left without a position following the signing of Albert Pujols.
Abreu is expendable in Anaheim since the Pujols deal will push first basemen Mark Trumbo and/or Kendrys Morales to the designated hitter spot Abreu occupied for most of 2011.
In Sunday's Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes the Angels are unlikely to outright release Abreu due to his $9 million contract, but their efforts to deal him have been fruitless.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Finding a home for Abreu
9:36AM ET
[h5]Peter Bourjos | Angels | Interested: Nationals? [/h5]
The Washington Nationals made big news Sunday by locking up franchise third baseman Ryan Zimmerman with a $100 million deal. Could the Nats now step up their search for a center fielder?
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Angels' Peter Bourjos is prominent on the Nats' wish list for center fielders, but the Halos asking price remains steep. With Torii Hunter entering the final year of his contract, Cafardo says the Angels have the means to retain both Bourjos and phenom Mike Trout.
The Nats brought back Rick Ankiel to compete for the center field job with Roger Bernadina, but wouldn't mind an upgrade.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards won't carry three catchers[/h3]
9:14AM ET
[h5]St. Louis Cardinals [/h5]
All-Star catcher Yadier Molina plans to borrow a page from the Albert Pujols handbook when it comes to negotiations on a contract extension.
Molina, a four-time Gold Glove winner who turns 30 in July, will be a free agent after the season and has no plans to give the Cardinals a hometown discount. He will make $7 million this year.
As for Molina's backup, manager Mike Mathney said Sunday there is little chance of the club opening with three catchers, barring an injury to Molina. Tony Cruz, Brian Anderson and nonroster veteran Koyie Hill will compete for the backup role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Craig's role and ETA[/h3]
8:54AM ET
[h5]Allen Craig | Cardinals [/h5]
Allen Craig had knee surgery in November and hopes to be back by Opening Day. He's not taking anything for granted, writes MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, as the outfielder is putting in the work to get back strong and on time.
In Monday's Post Dispatch, Joe Strauss writes the Cardinals plan to play it safe with Craig this spring.
Once he's back he will likely play a similar role as he did a year ago: part-time player. Despite losing Albert Pujols to the Angels, the Cardinals do not have a starting spot to hand Craig. Lance Berkman is moving from the outfield to first base, but the club signed Carlos Beltran to take Berkman's place in right.
That leaves Craig a role player, with Matt Holliday in left and Jon Jay in center. Craig has experience, albeit limited, at third base and on the right side of the infield, so he could pick up a little extra playing time moving around more than he did a year ago. Stay tuned on that front. Craig does sound more than optimistic on when he'll be ready to to play.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Wright's future in Queens[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]David Wright | Mets [/h5]
New York Mets third baseman David Wright saw Ryan Zimmerman, his childhood friend, agree Sunday to a six-year, $100 million deal to remain at the hot corner for the Washington Nationals.
Are the Mets prepared to make similar arrangement with Wright, or will they look to unload the face of the franchise as he approaches free agency next winter? Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports Wright is unlikely to quikcly follow Jose Reyes out of town in a midseason deal, but if he wants a contract extension, he will have to show GM Sandy Alderson this year that he is worth another long-term investment.
That means Wright, who hit just .254 with 14 homers in an injury-plagued 2011 season, would have to have a big year, especially after the dimensions of Citi Field have been altered to be more hitter friendly.
Martino reports neither Wright nor the Mets have discussed any contract extension at this point. The 800-pound gorilla in the room, of course, will be the Mets' shaky financial situation.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Halos won't release Abreu[/h3]
8:24AM ET
[h5]Bobby Abreu | Angels [/h5]
Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia last week tried to downplay the trade demands of Bobby Abreu, who is left without a position following the signing of Albert Pujols.
Abreu is expendable in Anaheim since the Pujols deal will push first basemen Mark Trumbo and/or Kendrys Morales to the designated hitter spot Abreu occupied for most of 2011.
In Sunday's Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes the Angels are unlikely to outright release Abreu due to his $9 million contract, but their efforts to deal him have been fruitless.
- Doug Mittler
Finding a home for Abreu
8:00AM ET
[h5]Brandon Inge | Tigers | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
Brandon Inge was hot a happy camper when he learned that the Detroit Tigers had signed Prince Fielder and were moving Miguel Cabrera over to third base.
Inge could end up as a backup at second or third base, or he could end up with a ticket out of town.
In Sunday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney suggests that Inge could be an inexpensive third base solution for the Oakland Athletics, presuming the Tigers eat a lot of the infielder's $5.5 million salary.
Third base is in issue in Oakland as the club awaits word on the severity of a knee injury to Scott Sizemore.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Santana to start spring game next week[/h3]
7:36AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The discussion of Johan Santana's recovery from shoulder surgery normally includes words of caution, complete with the famous "one day at a time" mantra.
New York Mets manager Terry Collins has taken an optimistic public stance regarding his ace. "In my mind right now, in my heart, he will be ready (for Opening Day)," Collins said last week.
Santana, who missed all of the last season following surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, took another step forward with a 73-pitch bullpen session Sunday. Santana remains on track to pitch in a March 6 Grapefruit League game, and will hope for the best after that.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]No setback for Howard[/h3]
7:20AM ET
[h5]Ryan Howard | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Amaro disagreed with Manuel's characterization of Howard's situation as a "setback." Trainer Scott Sheridan added that Howard's visit with the doctor this week was previously scheduled and was merely a checkup.
--
Ryan Howard took live batting practice this past week, the first such activity since he ruptured his Achhiles tendon last October. It appears as if the slugger is ahead of schedule, but he will see a doctor this coming week, reports Jim Salisbury.
General manager Ruben Amaro says it's just a precautionary check-up to make sure Howard is ready to move on to the next step in his rehab, but skipper Charlie Manuel used the words "little setback."
Howard is expected to return sometime in May and while he is out Ty Wigginton, John Mayberry, Jr. and Jim Thome are the candidates to play first base.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Contingency plans for Perez[/h3]
7:10AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced Sunday that Perez will miss four to six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
The Diamondbacks should keep Parra.
Zoom zoom to the trainer's room again.
Spoiler [+]
Gerardo Parra put together a solid, under the radar season over 141 games in 2011, posting a .340 wOBA and +10 UZR en route to three wins above replacement. He won a Gold Glove flanking Chris Young and Justin Upton and showed some legitimate signs of offensive improvement at just 24 years old.
The Diamondbacks, unsure whether or not the improvements were sustainable, opted to sign Jason Kubel this offseason for at least two years and $16 million. Kubel boasts the opposite set of skills as a decent hitter with a far worse glove. The team has yet to make it known if these two outfielders will platoon, but the more likely scenario has Kubel starting with Parra relegated to fourth outfielder status. Other teams have predictably been inquiring on Parra’s availability as he is now a cheap 25-year old starting outfielder without a guaranteed starting role.
In most cases it makes sense for the team with the supposed logjam to trade the displaced player. He can usually net a decent return and is often worth more to a new employer than as a sub to his current team. In this case, however, the Diamondbacks would be better served by keeping Parra in Arizona. The confluence of his age, abilities and contract status will afford the team another year or two to gauge his ability to start on a full-time basis without really sacrificing anything.
Arguably the most important factor here is salary. Parra made $405,000 in 2010 and $426,000 last season. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2013 and is under team control until at least 2015. By the time he hits free agency — assuming he isn’t extended beforehand, by the Diamondbacks or someone else — he’ll be entering his age-29 season. Teams don’t simply trade away talented 25 year old players with five more years of team control because they happen to have four outfielders for three spots.
Players traded away when these gluts are formed are typically paid decently and have established some track record of success. Parra is inexpensive, still raw, and is obviously much more valuable with a .330-.340 wOBA than with just fielding skills alone. Given his career .300 wOBA entering last season, it’s easy to see why some teams, the Diamondbacks included, might be leery of his full-time starting prospects this year.
Kubel is only under contract for 2012-13, which is hardly a commitment relative to how long they control Parra’s rights. While Kubel’s signing wasn’t the best decision given Parra’s presence and other available options, the Diamondbacks can start him, or platoon him with Parra for two years, let him walk, and slide Parra in as a starter for three seasons before he hits free agency. The Diamondbacks won’t reap much surplus value at that juncture, as Parra will start to earn salaries more in tune with his worth, but they also aren’t benching a $5 million player right now.
Parra can still produce 1.5+ WAR as a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner, defensive replacement and occasional starter this year, as he runs well, has some pop and has the second-highest UZR among National League outfielders over 2010-11. If any of the other three outfielders gets hurt, few teams have a legitimate starter capable of filling in like Parra. Plus, Kirk Gibson is very generous to his bench when it comes to playing time allocation, so there is certainly reason to think Parra will get 300-350 plate appearances without starting. It’s an unfortunate situation for Parra, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be in any hurry whatsoever to trade him.
That is, unless they are very bearish on his continued ability to improve, and consider his .340 wOBA last season to be the byproduct of luck and circumstance. There are two sides to his numbers at the plate, and right now it’s difficult to determine the true underlying cause of the improvements.
On one hand, he increased his walk rate from 6% to 9% and simultaneously reduced his strikeout rate from 19% to 16%. On the other hand, he batted eighth and was intentionally walked 16 times. He may be a decent hitter, but pitchers don’t intentionally walk Gerardo Parra other than to face other pitchers.
He was also UBB-IBB’d several more times last season which would reduce his effective on-base percentage. Normalized for the intentional walks, his OBP last season is closer to .330. Intentional walks don’t explain everything, however, as Parra was IBB’d ten times in 2010 and posted a .308 OBP. Six additional intentional walks make a difference, but they aren’t the only reason his walk rate increased that much.
His batting line likely improved due to a more disciplined approach at the plate. He cut back on swings at outside pitches but became more efficient by making more contact with those he did swing at. He also attacked pitches in the zone more frequently and replaced some grounders with line drives, but not so much so to stick out as fluky. Then again, his BABIP also increased from .322 to .342. While he managed a .346 BABIP in 2009, and seems to have the skill-set capable of a mark in that vicinity, there are again reasons to shoot down his improvements as actual, sustainable changes in approach.
If the Diamondbacks truly feel last season was the height of Parra’s career, and they can extract a noteworthy haul for him, trading him makes sense. But right now there is just no way any team can tell what he is going to become.
For that reason, Parra falls into a gray area of trade value, as the attributes that should net the Diamondbacks a solid return — 25 years old, excellent fielder, not even arb-eligible until 2013 — are canceled out by the fear of overpaying for an all-glove, no-bat player that really is best utilized as a fourth outfielder. The acquisition of Kubel won’t help Parra cement himself as a starter this season, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t budge unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer. They are better with Parra than without him, and it’s doubtful that potential trade suitors would pony up an exciting prospect package even if they viewed him as a full-time starter.
The Diamondbacks, unsure whether or not the improvements were sustainable, opted to sign Jason Kubel this offseason for at least two years and $16 million. Kubel boasts the opposite set of skills as a decent hitter with a far worse glove. The team has yet to make it known if these two outfielders will platoon, but the more likely scenario has Kubel starting with Parra relegated to fourth outfielder status. Other teams have predictably been inquiring on Parra’s availability as he is now a cheap 25-year old starting outfielder without a guaranteed starting role.
In most cases it makes sense for the team with the supposed logjam to trade the displaced player. He can usually net a decent return and is often worth more to a new employer than as a sub to his current team. In this case, however, the Diamondbacks would be better served by keeping Parra in Arizona. The confluence of his age, abilities and contract status will afford the team another year or two to gauge his ability to start on a full-time basis without really sacrificing anything.
Arguably the most important factor here is salary. Parra made $405,000 in 2010 and $426,000 last season. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2013 and is under team control until at least 2015. By the time he hits free agency — assuming he isn’t extended beforehand, by the Diamondbacks or someone else — he’ll be entering his age-29 season. Teams don’t simply trade away talented 25 year old players with five more years of team control because they happen to have four outfielders for three spots.
Players traded away when these gluts are formed are typically paid decently and have established some track record of success. Parra is inexpensive, still raw, and is obviously much more valuable with a .330-.340 wOBA than with just fielding skills alone. Given his career .300 wOBA entering last season, it’s easy to see why some teams, the Diamondbacks included, might be leery of his full-time starting prospects this year.
Kubel is only under contract for 2012-13, which is hardly a commitment relative to how long they control Parra’s rights. While Kubel’s signing wasn’t the best decision given Parra’s presence and other available options, the Diamondbacks can start him, or platoon him with Parra for two years, let him walk, and slide Parra in as a starter for three seasons before he hits free agency. The Diamondbacks won’t reap much surplus value at that juncture, as Parra will start to earn salaries more in tune with his worth, but they also aren’t benching a $5 million player right now.
Parra can still produce 1.5+ WAR as a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner, defensive replacement and occasional starter this year, as he runs well, has some pop and has the second-highest UZR among National League outfielders over 2010-11. If any of the other three outfielders gets hurt, few teams have a legitimate starter capable of filling in like Parra. Plus, Kirk Gibson is very generous to his bench when it comes to playing time allocation, so there is certainly reason to think Parra will get 300-350 plate appearances without starting. It’s an unfortunate situation for Parra, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be in any hurry whatsoever to trade him.
That is, unless they are very bearish on his continued ability to improve, and consider his .340 wOBA last season to be the byproduct of luck and circumstance. There are two sides to his numbers at the plate, and right now it’s difficult to determine the true underlying cause of the improvements.
On one hand, he increased his walk rate from 6% to 9% and simultaneously reduced his strikeout rate from 19% to 16%. On the other hand, he batted eighth and was intentionally walked 16 times. He may be a decent hitter, but pitchers don’t intentionally walk Gerardo Parra other than to face other pitchers.
He was also UBB-IBB’d several more times last season which would reduce his effective on-base percentage. Normalized for the intentional walks, his OBP last season is closer to .330. Intentional walks don’t explain everything, however, as Parra was IBB’d ten times in 2010 and posted a .308 OBP. Six additional intentional walks make a difference, but they aren’t the only reason his walk rate increased that much.
His batting line likely improved due to a more disciplined approach at the plate. He cut back on swings at outside pitches but became more efficient by making more contact with those he did swing at. He also attacked pitches in the zone more frequently and replaced some grounders with line drives, but not so much so to stick out as fluky. Then again, his BABIP also increased from .322 to .342. While he managed a .346 BABIP in 2009, and seems to have the skill-set capable of a mark in that vicinity, there are again reasons to shoot down his improvements as actual, sustainable changes in approach.
If the Diamondbacks truly feel last season was the height of Parra’s career, and they can extract a noteworthy haul for him, trading him makes sense. But right now there is just no way any team can tell what he is going to become.
For that reason, Parra falls into a gray area of trade value, as the attributes that should net the Diamondbacks a solid return — 25 years old, excellent fielder, not even arb-eligible until 2013 — are canceled out by the fear of overpaying for an all-glove, no-bat player that really is best utilized as a fourth outfielder. The acquisition of Kubel won’t help Parra cement himself as a starter this season, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t budge unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer. They are better with Parra than without him, and it’s doubtful that potential trade suitors would pony up an exciting prospect package even if they viewed him as a full-time starter.
Zoom zoom to the trainer's room again.
Spoiler [+]
Joel Zumaya has torn his UCL and will miss the season. At some point, we have to ask if his career is threatened. And, even when that prospect saddens us, if there is something unnatural about throwing as fast as he has.
Since he debuted in 2006, “Zoom Zoom
Since he debuted in 2006, “Zoom Zoom
The Diamondbacks should keep Parra.
Zoom zoom to the trainer's room again.
Spoiler [+]
Gerardo Parra put together a solid, under the radar season over 141 games in 2011, posting a .340 wOBA and +10 UZR en route to three wins above replacement. He won a Gold Glove flanking Chris Young and Justin Upton and showed some legitimate signs of offensive improvement at just 24 years old.
The Diamondbacks, unsure whether or not the improvements were sustainable, opted to sign Jason Kubel this offseason for at least two years and $16 million. Kubel boasts the opposite set of skills as a decent hitter with a far worse glove. The team has yet to make it known if these two outfielders will platoon, but the more likely scenario has Kubel starting with Parra relegated to fourth outfielder status. Other teams have predictably been inquiring on Parra’s availability as he is now a cheap 25-year old starting outfielder without a guaranteed starting role.
In most cases it makes sense for the team with the supposed logjam to trade the displaced player. He can usually net a decent return and is often worth more to a new employer than as a sub to his current team. In this case, however, the Diamondbacks would be better served by keeping Parra in Arizona. The confluence of his age, abilities and contract status will afford the team another year or two to gauge his ability to start on a full-time basis without really sacrificing anything.
Arguably the most important factor here is salary. Parra made $405,000 in 2010 and $426,000 last season. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2013 and is under team control until at least 2015. By the time he hits free agency — assuming he isn’t extended beforehand, by the Diamondbacks or someone else — he’ll be entering his age-29 season. Teams don’t simply trade away talented 25 year old players with five more years of team control because they happen to have four outfielders for three spots.
Players traded away when these gluts are formed are typically paid decently and have established some track record of success. Parra is inexpensive, still raw, and is obviously much more valuable with a .330-.340 wOBA than with just fielding skills alone. Given his career .300 wOBA entering last season, it’s easy to see why some teams, the Diamondbacks included, might be leery of his full-time starting prospects this year.
Kubel is only under contract for 2012-13, which is hardly a commitment relative to how long they control Parra’s rights. While Kubel’s signing wasn’t the best decision given Parra’s presence and other available options, the Diamondbacks can start him, or platoon him with Parra for two years, let him walk, and slide Parra in as a starter for three seasons before he hits free agency. The Diamondbacks won’t reap much surplus value at that juncture, as Parra will start to earn salaries more in tune with his worth, but they also aren’t benching a $5 million player right now.
Parra can still produce 1.5+ WAR as a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner, defensive replacement and occasional starter this year, as he runs well, has some pop and has the second-highest UZR among National League outfielders over 2010-11. If any of the other three outfielders gets hurt, few teams have a legitimate starter capable of filling in like Parra. Plus, Kirk Gibson is very generous to his bench when it comes to playing time allocation, so there is certainly reason to think Parra will get 300-350 plate appearances without starting. It’s an unfortunate situation for Parra, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be in any hurry whatsoever to trade him.
That is, unless they are very bearish on his continued ability to improve, and consider his .340 wOBA last season to be the byproduct of luck and circumstance. There are two sides to his numbers at the plate, and right now it’s difficult to determine the true underlying cause of the improvements.
On one hand, he increased his walk rate from 6% to 9% and simultaneously reduced his strikeout rate from 19% to 16%. On the other hand, he batted eighth and was intentionally walked 16 times. He may be a decent hitter, but pitchers don’t intentionally walk Gerardo Parra other than to face other pitchers.
He was also UBB-IBB’d several more times last season which would reduce his effective on-base percentage. Normalized for the intentional walks, his OBP last season is closer to .330. Intentional walks don’t explain everything, however, as Parra was IBB’d ten times in 2010 and posted a .308 OBP. Six additional intentional walks make a difference, but they aren’t the only reason his walk rate increased that much.
His batting line likely improved due to a more disciplined approach at the plate. He cut back on swings at outside pitches but became more efficient by making more contact with those he did swing at. He also attacked pitches in the zone more frequently and replaced some grounders with line drives, but not so much so to stick out as fluky. Then again, his BABIP also increased from .322 to .342. While he managed a .346 BABIP in 2009, and seems to have the skill-set capable of a mark in that vicinity, there are again reasons to shoot down his improvements as actual, sustainable changes in approach.
If the Diamondbacks truly feel last season was the height of Parra’s career, and they can extract a noteworthy haul for him, trading him makes sense. But right now there is just no way any team can tell what he is going to become.
For that reason, Parra falls into a gray area of trade value, as the attributes that should net the Diamondbacks a solid return — 25 years old, excellent fielder, not even arb-eligible until 2013 — are canceled out by the fear of overpaying for an all-glove, no-bat player that really is best utilized as a fourth outfielder. The acquisition of Kubel won’t help Parra cement himself as a starter this season, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t budge unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer. They are better with Parra than without him, and it’s doubtful that potential trade suitors would pony up an exciting prospect package even if they viewed him as a full-time starter.
The Diamondbacks, unsure whether or not the improvements were sustainable, opted to sign Jason Kubel this offseason for at least two years and $16 million. Kubel boasts the opposite set of skills as a decent hitter with a far worse glove. The team has yet to make it known if these two outfielders will platoon, but the more likely scenario has Kubel starting with Parra relegated to fourth outfielder status. Other teams have predictably been inquiring on Parra’s availability as he is now a cheap 25-year old starting outfielder without a guaranteed starting role.
In most cases it makes sense for the team with the supposed logjam to trade the displaced player. He can usually net a decent return and is often worth more to a new employer than as a sub to his current team. In this case, however, the Diamondbacks would be better served by keeping Parra in Arizona. The confluence of his age, abilities and contract status will afford the team another year or two to gauge his ability to start on a full-time basis without really sacrificing anything.
Arguably the most important factor here is salary. Parra made $405,000 in 2010 and $426,000 last season. He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2013 and is under team control until at least 2015. By the time he hits free agency — assuming he isn’t extended beforehand, by the Diamondbacks or someone else — he’ll be entering his age-29 season. Teams don’t simply trade away talented 25 year old players with five more years of team control because they happen to have four outfielders for three spots.
Players traded away when these gluts are formed are typically paid decently and have established some track record of success. Parra is inexpensive, still raw, and is obviously much more valuable with a .330-.340 wOBA than with just fielding skills alone. Given his career .300 wOBA entering last season, it’s easy to see why some teams, the Diamondbacks included, might be leery of his full-time starting prospects this year.
Kubel is only under contract for 2012-13, which is hardly a commitment relative to how long they control Parra’s rights. While Kubel’s signing wasn’t the best decision given Parra’s presence and other available options, the Diamondbacks can start him, or platoon him with Parra for two years, let him walk, and slide Parra in as a starter for three seasons before he hits free agency. The Diamondbacks won’t reap much surplus value at that juncture, as Parra will start to earn salaries more in tune with his worth, but they also aren’t benching a $5 million player right now.
Parra can still produce 1.5+ WAR as a pinch-hitter, pinch-runner, defensive replacement and occasional starter this year, as he runs well, has some pop and has the second-highest UZR among National League outfielders over 2010-11. If any of the other three outfielders gets hurt, few teams have a legitimate starter capable of filling in like Parra. Plus, Kirk Gibson is very generous to his bench when it comes to playing time allocation, so there is certainly reason to think Parra will get 300-350 plate appearances without starting. It’s an unfortunate situation for Parra, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be in any hurry whatsoever to trade him.
That is, unless they are very bearish on his continued ability to improve, and consider his .340 wOBA last season to be the byproduct of luck and circumstance. There are two sides to his numbers at the plate, and right now it’s difficult to determine the true underlying cause of the improvements.
On one hand, he increased his walk rate from 6% to 9% and simultaneously reduced his strikeout rate from 19% to 16%. On the other hand, he batted eighth and was intentionally walked 16 times. He may be a decent hitter, but pitchers don’t intentionally walk Gerardo Parra other than to face other pitchers.
He was also UBB-IBB’d several more times last season which would reduce his effective on-base percentage. Normalized for the intentional walks, his OBP last season is closer to .330. Intentional walks don’t explain everything, however, as Parra was IBB’d ten times in 2010 and posted a .308 OBP. Six additional intentional walks make a difference, but they aren’t the only reason his walk rate increased that much.
His batting line likely improved due to a more disciplined approach at the plate. He cut back on swings at outside pitches but became more efficient by making more contact with those he did swing at. He also attacked pitches in the zone more frequently and replaced some grounders with line drives, but not so much so to stick out as fluky. Then again, his BABIP also increased from .322 to .342. While he managed a .346 BABIP in 2009, and seems to have the skill-set capable of a mark in that vicinity, there are again reasons to shoot down his improvements as actual, sustainable changes in approach.
If the Diamondbacks truly feel last season was the height of Parra’s career, and they can extract a noteworthy haul for him, trading him makes sense. But right now there is just no way any team can tell what he is going to become.
For that reason, Parra falls into a gray area of trade value, as the attributes that should net the Diamondbacks a solid return — 25 years old, excellent fielder, not even arb-eligible until 2013 — are canceled out by the fear of overpaying for an all-glove, no-bat player that really is best utilized as a fourth outfielder. The acquisition of Kubel won’t help Parra cement himself as a starter this season, but the Diamondbacks shouldn’t budge unless they are absolutely blown away by an offer. They are better with Parra than without him, and it’s doubtful that potential trade suitors would pony up an exciting prospect package even if they viewed him as a full-time starter.
Zoom zoom to the trainer's room again.
Spoiler [+]
Joel Zumaya has torn his UCL and will miss the season. At some point, we have to ask if his career is threatened. And, even when that prospect saddens us, if there is something unnatural about throwing as fast as he has.
Since he debuted in 2006, “Zoom Zoom
Since he debuted in 2006, “Zoom Zoom
- 1,887
- 503
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2011
Originally Posted by RetroBaller
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32
I'm looking to join a Yahoo fantasy baseball league this season.
Same here
- 1,887
- 503
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2011
Originally Posted by RetroBaller
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32
I'm looking to join a Yahoo fantasy baseball league this season.
Same here
What Zimmerman deal means for Rendon.
Spoiler [+]
The Washington Nationals really jumped the gun in signing Ryan Zimmerman to a six-year, $100 million contract extension over the weekend, since he wasn't due to hit free agency for two more years and is coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season.
Absurd "face of the franchise" arguments notwithstanding -- fans root for laundry, not faces -- Zimmerman should have had to demonstrate his ability to stay on the field and recapture his old value on defense before Washington made a long-term commitment to him. Even though the salaries on the deal are reasonable if he stays healthy and declines at a normal rate, there's too much risk here for the team given what we've seen from Zimmerman in the last 18 months.
When healthy, Zimmerman is an MVP-caliber player thanks to solid offense and plus-plus defense that helped him produce back-to-back 7-WAR seasons (per Fangraphs; Baseball Reference rates his defense quite a bit lower). But Zimmerman wasn't healthy last year, which was the second time in the last four seasons he failed to qualify for the batting title, on top of a September 2010 rib strain that ended his season. Players do not typically become less prone to injury as they age, and injuries tend to force players to move to easier positions on the defensive spectrum; in Zimmerman's case, a position switch, likely to first base, chews up an enormous chunk of his value. Waiting to see if Zimmerman, who set an artificial "deadline" that would have been best ignored by the Nationals as the fan-trolling maneuver it actually was, could have a full, healthy 2012 before paying him would have been a much more prudent strategy. And since he wasn't due to become a free agent until after 2013, the Nationals had time to defer a decision here -- or to trade him next offseason if his demands became unreasonable.
That said, this isn't the Ryan Howard fiasco all over again. Zimmerman has injury issues, but plays a skill position, plays it very well, and will be 29 in the first year of the extension, so the Nationals get the tail end of his peak plus his early decline years. Howard was already a poor defensive first baseman with platoon issues when Philadelphia gave him the keys to the vault, and he'll be 32 this year in the first year of his new contract. He'll also receive substantially more money per year despite a history of less production than Zimmerman, and his deal only includes decline years rather than peak. Zimmerman's deal was premature, but Howard's was crazy.
The most common question I got after word of the extension leaked out was what this means for Nationals prospect Anthony Rendon, and the answer is ... nothing.
Rendon, a gifted defensive third baseman with plenty of potential to hit and get on base, has yet to take his first pro at bat, yet fans are already clamoring for him to change positions or hit the trade block. For one thing, he's probably two years away from the big leagues, by which point Zimmerman might be heading off third base for age or injury reasons. For another, Rendon himself is hardly the picture of health, with two major ankle injuries and a shoulder problem just in the last three year. And those ankle injuries make suggestions that he should go to second base seem particularly misguided. (When a player has already shown a propensity to blow out his ankles, do you really want runners plowing into him as he learns to turn the pivot on double plays?)
Additionally, there's always a chance that Rendon doesn't perform up to expectations. While I believe he'll hit, enough to rank him 17th on my top 100 prospects ranking earlier this month, I've seen better velocity eat him up, and he wasn't the same hitter last spring at Rice when his shoulder wasn't 100 percent. So the solution for the Nationals is simple: Send Rendon out as a third baseman, likely to high Class A at the start of the year with an eye toward a midyear promotion to Double-A if he tears the Carolina League apart, as I believe he will.
The same philosophy applies to the Rangers with their two shortstops, Elvis Andrus, recently signed to a shorter-term extension, and Jurickson Profar, a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. Andrus is in the big leagues, while Profar just turned 19 last week and has yet to see an at bat above low Class A; he could play defense in the majors right now, but it would be optimistic to think of him handling big league pitching at all before some time in 2013, with the following year a much more reasonable expectation for him to at least hold his own in the majors. The presence of an elite prospect in the low minors shouldn't automatically preclude extending the contract a major league star, nor should the extension lead the team to develop the prospect in a way that hurts his long-term value. The Rangers kept their deal with Andrus short, but gained cost certainty that, in the best case scenario for Profar, would maintain Andrus' trade value in the future.
In the Nationals' case, it looks like they panicked over the threatened departure of a player who wasn't going anywhere for two years, and for whom they might even have a replacement ready by that point. The deal they gave Zimmerman this weekend would also have been there for both sides next winter, and if Zimmerman had another long DL stint this season, or if Rendon emerged as a potential candidate for the Opening Day roster in 2014, the Nats would have been in a much stronger position to negotiate.
Absurd "face of the franchise" arguments notwithstanding -- fans root for laundry, not faces -- Zimmerman should have had to demonstrate his ability to stay on the field and recapture his old value on defense before Washington made a long-term commitment to him. Even though the salaries on the deal are reasonable if he stays healthy and declines at a normal rate, there's too much risk here for the team given what we've seen from Zimmerman in the last 18 months.
When healthy, Zimmerman is an MVP-caliber player thanks to solid offense and plus-plus defense that helped him produce back-to-back 7-WAR seasons (per Fangraphs; Baseball Reference rates his defense quite a bit lower). But Zimmerman wasn't healthy last year, which was the second time in the last four seasons he failed to qualify for the batting title, on top of a September 2010 rib strain that ended his season. Players do not typically become less prone to injury as they age, and injuries tend to force players to move to easier positions on the defensive spectrum; in Zimmerman's case, a position switch, likely to first base, chews up an enormous chunk of his value. Waiting to see if Zimmerman, who set an artificial "deadline" that would have been best ignored by the Nationals as the fan-trolling maneuver it actually was, could have a full, healthy 2012 before paying him would have been a much more prudent strategy. And since he wasn't due to become a free agent until after 2013, the Nationals had time to defer a decision here -- or to trade him next offseason if his demands became unreasonable.
That said, this isn't the Ryan Howard fiasco all over again. Zimmerman has injury issues, but plays a skill position, plays it very well, and will be 29 in the first year of the extension, so the Nationals get the tail end of his peak plus his early decline years. Howard was already a poor defensive first baseman with platoon issues when Philadelphia gave him the keys to the vault, and he'll be 32 this year in the first year of his new contract. He'll also receive substantially more money per year despite a history of less production than Zimmerman, and his deal only includes decline years rather than peak. Zimmerman's deal was premature, but Howard's was crazy.
The most common question I got after word of the extension leaked out was what this means for Nationals prospect Anthony Rendon, and the answer is ... nothing.
Rendon, a gifted defensive third baseman with plenty of potential to hit and get on base, has yet to take his first pro at bat, yet fans are already clamoring for him to change positions or hit the trade block. For one thing, he's probably two years away from the big leagues, by which point Zimmerman might be heading off third base for age or injury reasons. For another, Rendon himself is hardly the picture of health, with two major ankle injuries and a shoulder problem just in the last three year. And those ankle injuries make suggestions that he should go to second base seem particularly misguided. (When a player has already shown a propensity to blow out his ankles, do you really want runners plowing into him as he learns to turn the pivot on double plays?)
Additionally, there's always a chance that Rendon doesn't perform up to expectations. While I believe he'll hit, enough to rank him 17th on my top 100 prospects ranking earlier this month, I've seen better velocity eat him up, and he wasn't the same hitter last spring at Rice when his shoulder wasn't 100 percent. So the solution for the Nationals is simple: Send Rendon out as a third baseman, likely to high Class A at the start of the year with an eye toward a midyear promotion to Double-A if he tears the Carolina League apart, as I believe he will.
The same philosophy applies to the Rangers with their two shortstops, Elvis Andrus, recently signed to a shorter-term extension, and Jurickson Profar, a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. Andrus is in the big leagues, while Profar just turned 19 last week and has yet to see an at bat above low Class A; he could play defense in the majors right now, but it would be optimistic to think of him handling big league pitching at all before some time in 2013, with the following year a much more reasonable expectation for him to at least hold his own in the majors. The presence of an elite prospect in the low minors shouldn't automatically preclude extending the contract a major league star, nor should the extension lead the team to develop the prospect in a way that hurts his long-term value. The Rangers kept their deal with Andrus short, but gained cost certainty that, in the best case scenario for Profar, would maintain Andrus' trade value in the future.
In the Nationals' case, it looks like they panicked over the threatened departure of a player who wasn't going anywhere for two years, and for whom they might even have a replacement ready by that point. The deal they gave Zimmerman this weekend would also have been there for both sides next winter, and if Zimmerman had another long DL stint this season, or if Rendon emerged as a potential candidate for the Opening Day roster in 2014, the Nats would have been in a much stronger position to negotiate.
What Zimmerman deal means for Rendon.
Spoiler [+]
The Washington Nationals really jumped the gun in signing Ryan Zimmerman to a six-year, $100 million contract extension over the weekend, since he wasn't due to hit free agency for two more years and is coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season.
Absurd "face of the franchise" arguments notwithstanding -- fans root for laundry, not faces -- Zimmerman should have had to demonstrate his ability to stay on the field and recapture his old value on defense before Washington made a long-term commitment to him. Even though the salaries on the deal are reasonable if he stays healthy and declines at a normal rate, there's too much risk here for the team given what we've seen from Zimmerman in the last 18 months.
When healthy, Zimmerman is an MVP-caliber player thanks to solid offense and plus-plus defense that helped him produce back-to-back 7-WAR seasons (per Fangraphs; Baseball Reference rates his defense quite a bit lower). But Zimmerman wasn't healthy last year, which was the second time in the last four seasons he failed to qualify for the batting title, on top of a September 2010 rib strain that ended his season. Players do not typically become less prone to injury as they age, and injuries tend to force players to move to easier positions on the defensive spectrum; in Zimmerman's case, a position switch, likely to first base, chews up an enormous chunk of his value. Waiting to see if Zimmerman, who set an artificial "deadline" that would have been best ignored by the Nationals as the fan-trolling maneuver it actually was, could have a full, healthy 2012 before paying him would have been a much more prudent strategy. And since he wasn't due to become a free agent until after 2013, the Nationals had time to defer a decision here -- or to trade him next offseason if his demands became unreasonable.
That said, this isn't the Ryan Howard fiasco all over again. Zimmerman has injury issues, but plays a skill position, plays it very well, and will be 29 in the first year of the extension, so the Nationals get the tail end of his peak plus his early decline years. Howard was already a poor defensive first baseman with platoon issues when Philadelphia gave him the keys to the vault, and he'll be 32 this year in the first year of his new contract. He'll also receive substantially more money per year despite a history of less production than Zimmerman, and his deal only includes decline years rather than peak. Zimmerman's deal was premature, but Howard's was crazy.
The most common question I got after word of the extension leaked out was what this means for Nationals prospect Anthony Rendon, and the answer is ... nothing.
Rendon, a gifted defensive third baseman with plenty of potential to hit and get on base, has yet to take his first pro at bat, yet fans are already clamoring for him to change positions or hit the trade block. For one thing, he's probably two years away from the big leagues, by which point Zimmerman might be heading off third base for age or injury reasons. For another, Rendon himself is hardly the picture of health, with two major ankle injuries and a shoulder problem just in the last three year. And those ankle injuries make suggestions that he should go to second base seem particularly misguided. (When a player has already shown a propensity to blow out his ankles, do you really want runners plowing into him as he learns to turn the pivot on double plays?)
Additionally, there's always a chance that Rendon doesn't perform up to expectations. While I believe he'll hit, enough to rank him 17th on my top 100 prospects ranking earlier this month, I've seen better velocity eat him up, and he wasn't the same hitter last spring at Rice when his shoulder wasn't 100 percent. So the solution for the Nationals is simple: Send Rendon out as a third baseman, likely to high Class A at the start of the year with an eye toward a midyear promotion to Double-A if he tears the Carolina League apart, as I believe he will.
The same philosophy applies to the Rangers with their two shortstops, Elvis Andrus, recently signed to a shorter-term extension, and Jurickson Profar, a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. Andrus is in the big leagues, while Profar just turned 19 last week and has yet to see an at bat above low Class A; he could play defense in the majors right now, but it would be optimistic to think of him handling big league pitching at all before some time in 2013, with the following year a much more reasonable expectation for him to at least hold his own in the majors. The presence of an elite prospect in the low minors shouldn't automatically preclude extending the contract a major league star, nor should the extension lead the team to develop the prospect in a way that hurts his long-term value. The Rangers kept their deal with Andrus short, but gained cost certainty that, in the best case scenario for Profar, would maintain Andrus' trade value in the future.
In the Nationals' case, it looks like they panicked over the threatened departure of a player who wasn't going anywhere for two years, and for whom they might even have a replacement ready by that point. The deal they gave Zimmerman this weekend would also have been there for both sides next winter, and if Zimmerman had another long DL stint this season, or if Rendon emerged as a potential candidate for the Opening Day roster in 2014, the Nats would have been in a much stronger position to negotiate.
Absurd "face of the franchise" arguments notwithstanding -- fans root for laundry, not faces -- Zimmerman should have had to demonstrate his ability to stay on the field and recapture his old value on defense before Washington made a long-term commitment to him. Even though the salaries on the deal are reasonable if he stays healthy and declines at a normal rate, there's too much risk here for the team given what we've seen from Zimmerman in the last 18 months.
When healthy, Zimmerman is an MVP-caliber player thanks to solid offense and plus-plus defense that helped him produce back-to-back 7-WAR seasons (per Fangraphs; Baseball Reference rates his defense quite a bit lower). But Zimmerman wasn't healthy last year, which was the second time in the last four seasons he failed to qualify for the batting title, on top of a September 2010 rib strain that ended his season. Players do not typically become less prone to injury as they age, and injuries tend to force players to move to easier positions on the defensive spectrum; in Zimmerman's case, a position switch, likely to first base, chews up an enormous chunk of his value. Waiting to see if Zimmerman, who set an artificial "deadline" that would have been best ignored by the Nationals as the fan-trolling maneuver it actually was, could have a full, healthy 2012 before paying him would have been a much more prudent strategy. And since he wasn't due to become a free agent until after 2013, the Nationals had time to defer a decision here -- or to trade him next offseason if his demands became unreasonable.
That said, this isn't the Ryan Howard fiasco all over again. Zimmerman has injury issues, but plays a skill position, plays it very well, and will be 29 in the first year of the extension, so the Nationals get the tail end of his peak plus his early decline years. Howard was already a poor defensive first baseman with platoon issues when Philadelphia gave him the keys to the vault, and he'll be 32 this year in the first year of his new contract. He'll also receive substantially more money per year despite a history of less production than Zimmerman, and his deal only includes decline years rather than peak. Zimmerman's deal was premature, but Howard's was crazy.
The most common question I got after word of the extension leaked out was what this means for Nationals prospect Anthony Rendon, and the answer is ... nothing.
Rendon, a gifted defensive third baseman with plenty of potential to hit and get on base, has yet to take his first pro at bat, yet fans are already clamoring for him to change positions or hit the trade block. For one thing, he's probably two years away from the big leagues, by which point Zimmerman might be heading off third base for age or injury reasons. For another, Rendon himself is hardly the picture of health, with two major ankle injuries and a shoulder problem just in the last three year. And those ankle injuries make suggestions that he should go to second base seem particularly misguided. (When a player has already shown a propensity to blow out his ankles, do you really want runners plowing into him as he learns to turn the pivot on double plays?)
Additionally, there's always a chance that Rendon doesn't perform up to expectations. While I believe he'll hit, enough to rank him 17th on my top 100 prospects ranking earlier this month, I've seen better velocity eat him up, and he wasn't the same hitter last spring at Rice when his shoulder wasn't 100 percent. So the solution for the Nationals is simple: Send Rendon out as a third baseman, likely to high Class A at the start of the year with an eye toward a midyear promotion to Double-A if he tears the Carolina League apart, as I believe he will.
The same philosophy applies to the Rangers with their two shortstops, Elvis Andrus, recently signed to a shorter-term extension, and Jurickson Profar, a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. Andrus is in the big leagues, while Profar just turned 19 last week and has yet to see an at bat above low Class A; he could play defense in the majors right now, but it would be optimistic to think of him handling big league pitching at all before some time in 2013, with the following year a much more reasonable expectation for him to at least hold his own in the majors. The presence of an elite prospect in the low minors shouldn't automatically preclude extending the contract a major league star, nor should the extension lead the team to develop the prospect in a way that hurts his long-term value. The Rangers kept their deal with Andrus short, but gained cost certainty that, in the best case scenario for Profar, would maintain Andrus' trade value in the future.
In the Nationals' case, it looks like they panicked over the threatened departure of a player who wasn't going anywhere for two years, and for whom they might even have a replacement ready by that point. The deal they gave Zimmerman this weekend would also have been there for both sides next winter, and if Zimmerman had another long DL stint this season, or if Rendon emerged as a potential candidate for the Opening Day roster in 2014, the Nats would have been in a much stronger position to negotiate.
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can someone with ESPN Insider get this - http://insider.espn.go.co...-draft-pick-fantasy-year
- 20,620
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can someone with ESPN Insider get this - http://insider.espn.go.co...-draft-pick-fantasy-year
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- Nov 14, 2007
Molina got paid
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Molina got paid
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My guy got STUPID paid. $75 million over five years. Horrible overspend, but good for him.
One of my other favorite catchers, Salvador Perez, got a five-year extension today, too. For $7 million.
One of my other favorite catchers, Salvador Perez, got a five-year extension today, too. For $7 million.
- 10,371
- 653
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2011
My guy got STUPID paid. $75 million over five years. Horrible overspend, but good for him.
One of my other favorite catchers, Salvador Perez, got a five-year extension today, too. For $7 million.
One of my other favorite catchers, Salvador Perez, got a five-year extension today, too. For $7 million.
Spoiler [+]
I believe I was sitting on the beach when I heard the shocking news that Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was not going to be suspended for 50 games. He had won his appeal for a positive steroid test. Well, let's just say bedlam ensued in the fantasy baseball world. I've seen leagues in which Braun slipped to the fifth round under the assumption he'd miss 50 games. A friend of mine traded Braun in a keeper league for a closer (I advised against this). And now?
Braun vaults to the very top of my first round, Numero Uno, and of course, the feedback was interesting (and always welcome). My take is simple: This 30/30 guy was a fantasy monster last season (third on the Player Rater) and I don't see any reason why that will change in 2012. In fact, he should be mighty motivated to ensure another splendid statistical year.
[+] Enlarge
Ryan BraunAP Photo/Jae C. HongRyan Braun defended himself last week, but he doesn't need to convince most fantasy owners to take him in the first round.
Of course, others do have reasons why Mr. Braun will not repeat his exceptional numbers, so let's discuss them in this forum.
Question: Aren't you worried that he'll regress now that he's off the juice?
Answer: First of all, I'm paraphrasing for what was the most common choice of verbiage. I don't know what Braun did or did not do to trigger a positive test, to be honest, and while the cloud around his reputation might or might not have lessened after his stellar news conference on Friday, the fact is I am not reading too much into the situation. Braun had a magical year. He's had other terrific seasons as well. This is not Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez producing numbers shown in time to be aberrant to their respective careers. Braun hit 33 home runs, knocked in 111 runs, scored 109 and hit .332. He stole 33 bases. The previous four seasons he hit .307 and averaged 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 99 runs and 16 steals. Braun's 2011 might end up an outlier to some degree -- mainly batting average and steals -- but he's not Jason Bay, either. Braun has been a top-5 player for years.
I'm not a doctor, and let's face it, even doctors can't say for sure to what effect steroids play a precise role on performance. We don't know if Braun took anything, and if he did, when he actually took it, and I'm simply not going to play the guessing game projecting ahead and expecting major regression. I expect he'll remain, as he was before, one of the most durable and consistent players in the game, one of perhaps five or so outfielders capable of making a run at 30/30, and safe to own.
Question: Losing Prince Fielder has to hurt his numbers, doesn't it?
Answer: I just don't buy the notion of lineup protection, folks. If I did, then rest assured Albert Pujols wouldn't be my No. 3 player off the draft board. Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and … what else have the Angels got? Plus, take a closer look at Fielder, if you will. In 2010 he hit .261 with only 83 RBIs. In fact, in two of the previous three seasons leading up to 2011, Fielder wasn't as good as most people think, failing to achieve even a .880 OPS, which is essentially what Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence and Aramis Ramirez provided last season.
Oddly enough, assuming Braun returns to his cozy No. 3 lineup slot, new Brewers third baseman Ramirez is penciled in to "protect" him in the order. I don't think Ramirez is a great fantasy option for this season, but I can't argue against him being an offensive threat. Yes, he's not Fielder, but so what if Braun walks a few more times than normal? He'll be on base and those are potential steals. Jose Bautista's walk rate exploded, and he still provided massive numbers. Heck, I still like what the Brewers have following Braun in the order more than what the Angels protect Pujols with, and same with Bautista in Toronto, Matt Kemp in Los Angeles, etc.
Question: Isn't the potential Braun downside enough to scare you for exalting him that highly?
Answer: Not at all. In fact, go through the rest of the first round and find me a player sans downside. Let me also add that nobody is safe from testing positive for something. I never thought Braun would, for example.
Here's the rest of my top 10, as of today, with potential downside, though I don't really buy the downside as likely to occur.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Switching positions often trips hitters up. And while I'm not big on lineup protection, who's protecting him?
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Switching leagues often trips hitters up. And just look at the rest of that underwhelming lineup.
4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Who owns the franchise? And didn't this guy hit .249 in 2010?
5. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Home runs did drop from 54 to 43. If they drop by 11 again, he's not special. And he did hit .260 in 2010.
6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: Has averaged a mere 129 games played the past four seasons.
7. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Well, still hasn't reached even 90 RBIs in a season, and durability has also been a concern.
8. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: Hmmm. Doesn't steal many bases? Strikeout rate went way, way up? Home run derby aftereffects … OK, not much downside here.
9. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami Marlins: Just look at 2011. And he's switching positions.
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: We could say look at 2010, but obviously his home run rate could return to his prior levels.
Yes, Braun has some downside, but those playing amateur psychologist would need to do so on many of the players they'd consider drafting.
Anyway, there's my updated top 10. Sadly, when Braun said he had been judged guilty before being proven innocent, he had a point. Look where everyone in fantasy ranked him! Well, now he's where he belongs, right at the top.
Braun vaults to the very top of my first round, Numero Uno, and of course, the feedback was interesting (and always welcome). My take is simple: This 30/30 guy was a fantasy monster last season (third on the Player Rater) and I don't see any reason why that will change in 2012. In fact, he should be mighty motivated to ensure another splendid statistical year.
[+] Enlarge
Ryan BraunAP Photo/Jae C. HongRyan Braun defended himself last week, but he doesn't need to convince most fantasy owners to take him in the first round.
Of course, others do have reasons why Mr. Braun will not repeat his exceptional numbers, so let's discuss them in this forum.
Question: Aren't you worried that he'll regress now that he's off the juice?
Answer: First of all, I'm paraphrasing for what was the most common choice of verbiage. I don't know what Braun did or did not do to trigger a positive test, to be honest, and while the cloud around his reputation might or might not have lessened after his stellar news conference on Friday, the fact is I am not reading too much into the situation. Braun had a magical year. He's had other terrific seasons as well. This is not Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez producing numbers shown in time to be aberrant to their respective careers. Braun hit 33 home runs, knocked in 111 runs, scored 109 and hit .332. He stole 33 bases. The previous four seasons he hit .307 and averaged 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 99 runs and 16 steals. Braun's 2011 might end up an outlier to some degree -- mainly batting average and steals -- but he's not Jason Bay, either. Braun has been a top-5 player for years.
I'm not a doctor, and let's face it, even doctors can't say for sure to what effect steroids play a precise role on performance. We don't know if Braun took anything, and if he did, when he actually took it, and I'm simply not going to play the guessing game projecting ahead and expecting major regression. I expect he'll remain, as he was before, one of the most durable and consistent players in the game, one of perhaps five or so outfielders capable of making a run at 30/30, and safe to own.
Question: Losing Prince Fielder has to hurt his numbers, doesn't it?
Answer: I just don't buy the notion of lineup protection, folks. If I did, then rest assured Albert Pujols wouldn't be my No. 3 player off the draft board. Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and … what else have the Angels got? Plus, take a closer look at Fielder, if you will. In 2010 he hit .261 with only 83 RBIs. In fact, in two of the previous three seasons leading up to 2011, Fielder wasn't as good as most people think, failing to achieve even a .880 OPS, which is essentially what Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence and Aramis Ramirez provided last season.
Oddly enough, assuming Braun returns to his cozy No. 3 lineup slot, new Brewers third baseman Ramirez is penciled in to "protect" him in the order. I don't think Ramirez is a great fantasy option for this season, but I can't argue against him being an offensive threat. Yes, he's not Fielder, but so what if Braun walks a few more times than normal? He'll be on base and those are potential steals. Jose Bautista's walk rate exploded, and he still provided massive numbers. Heck, I still like what the Brewers have following Braun in the order more than what the Angels protect Pujols with, and same with Bautista in Toronto, Matt Kemp in Los Angeles, etc.
Question: Isn't the potential Braun downside enough to scare you for exalting him that highly?
Answer: Not at all. In fact, go through the rest of the first round and find me a player sans downside. Let me also add that nobody is safe from testing positive for something. I never thought Braun would, for example.
Here's the rest of my top 10, as of today, with potential downside, though I don't really buy the downside as likely to occur.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Switching positions often trips hitters up. And while I'm not big on lineup protection, who's protecting him?
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Switching leagues often trips hitters up. And just look at the rest of that underwhelming lineup.
4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Who owns the franchise? And didn't this guy hit .249 in 2010?
5. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Home runs did drop from 54 to 43. If they drop by 11 again, he's not special. And he did hit .260 in 2010.
6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: Has averaged a mere 129 games played the past four seasons.
7. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Well, still hasn't reached even 90 RBIs in a season, and durability has also been a concern.
8. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: Hmmm. Doesn't steal many bases? Strikeout rate went way, way up? Home run derby aftereffects … OK, not much downside here.
9. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami Marlins: Just look at 2011. And he's switching positions.
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: We could say look at 2010, but obviously his home run rate could return to his prior levels.
Yes, Braun has some downside, but those playing amateur psychologist would need to do so on many of the players they'd consider drafting.
Anyway, there's my updated top 10. Sadly, when Braun said he had been judged guilty before being proven innocent, he had a point. Look where everyone in fantasy ranked him! Well, now he's where he belongs, right at the top.
Shocked Molina got THAT much. I thought he'd get 4/44 or something like that
Spoiler [+]
I believe I was sitting on the beach when I heard the shocking news that Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was not going to be suspended for 50 games. He had won his appeal for a positive steroid test. Well, let's just say bedlam ensued in the fantasy baseball world. I've seen leagues in which Braun slipped to the fifth round under the assumption he'd miss 50 games. A friend of mine traded Braun in a keeper league for a closer (I advised against this). And now?
Braun vaults to the very top of my first round, Numero Uno, and of course, the feedback was interesting (and always welcome). My take is simple: This 30/30 guy was a fantasy monster last season (third on the Player Rater) and I don't see any reason why that will change in 2012. In fact, he should be mighty motivated to ensure another splendid statistical year.
[+] Enlarge
Ryan BraunAP Photo/Jae C. HongRyan Braun defended himself last week, but he doesn't need to convince most fantasy owners to take him in the first round.
Of course, others do have reasons why Mr. Braun will not repeat his exceptional numbers, so let's discuss them in this forum.
Question: Aren't you worried that he'll regress now that he's off the juice?
Answer: First of all, I'm paraphrasing for what was the most common choice of verbiage. I don't know what Braun did or did not do to trigger a positive test, to be honest, and while the cloud around his reputation might or might not have lessened after his stellar news conference on Friday, the fact is I am not reading too much into the situation. Braun had a magical year. He's had other terrific seasons as well. This is not Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez producing numbers shown in time to be aberrant to their respective careers. Braun hit 33 home runs, knocked in 111 runs, scored 109 and hit .332. He stole 33 bases. The previous four seasons he hit .307 and averaged 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 99 runs and 16 steals. Braun's 2011 might end up an outlier to some degree -- mainly batting average and steals -- but he's not Jason Bay, either. Braun has been a top-5 player for years.
I'm not a doctor, and let's face it, even doctors can't say for sure to what effect steroids play a precise role on performance. We don't know if Braun took anything, and if he did, when he actually took it, and I'm simply not going to play the guessing game projecting ahead and expecting major regression. I expect he'll remain, as he was before, one of the most durable and consistent players in the game, one of perhaps five or so outfielders capable of making a run at 30/30, and safe to own.
Question: Losing Prince Fielder has to hurt his numbers, doesn't it?
Answer: I just don't buy the notion of lineup protection, folks. If I did, then rest assured Albert Pujols wouldn't be my No. 3 player off the draft board. Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and … what else have the Angels got? Plus, take a closer look at Fielder, if you will. In 2010 he hit .261 with only 83 RBIs. In fact, in two of the previous three seasons leading up to 2011, Fielder wasn't as good as most people think, failing to achieve even a .880 OPS, which is essentially what Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence and Aramis Ramirez provided last season.
Oddly enough, assuming Braun returns to his cozy No. 3 lineup slot, new Brewers third baseman Ramirez is penciled in to "protect" him in the order. I don't think Ramirez is a great fantasy option for this season, but I can't argue against him being an offensive threat. Yes, he's not Fielder, but so what if Braun walks a few more times than normal? He'll be on base and those are potential steals. Jose Bautista's walk rate exploded, and he still provided massive numbers. Heck, I still like what the Brewers have following Braun in the order more than what the Angels protect Pujols with, and same with Bautista in Toronto, Matt Kemp in Los Angeles, etc.
Question: Isn't the potential Braun downside enough to scare you for exalting him that highly?
Answer: Not at all. In fact, go through the rest of the first round and find me a player sans downside. Let me also add that nobody is safe from testing positive for something. I never thought Braun would, for example.
Here's the rest of my top 10, as of today, with potential downside, though I don't really buy the downside as likely to occur.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Switching positions often trips hitters up. And while I'm not big on lineup protection, who's protecting him?
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Switching leagues often trips hitters up. And just look at the rest of that underwhelming lineup.
4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Who owns the franchise? And didn't this guy hit .249 in 2010?
5. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Home runs did drop from 54 to 43. If they drop by 11 again, he's not special. And he did hit .260 in 2010.
6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: Has averaged a mere 129 games played the past four seasons.
7. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Well, still hasn't reached even 90 RBIs in a season, and durability has also been a concern.
8. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: Hmmm. Doesn't steal many bases? Strikeout rate went way, way up? Home run derby aftereffects … OK, not much downside here.
9. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami Marlins: Just look at 2011. And he's switching positions.
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: We could say look at 2010, but obviously his home run rate could return to his prior levels.
Yes, Braun has some downside, but those playing amateur psychologist would need to do so on many of the players they'd consider drafting.
Anyway, there's my updated top 10. Sadly, when Braun said he had been judged guilty before being proven innocent, he had a point. Look where everyone in fantasy ranked him! Well, now he's where he belongs, right at the top.
Braun vaults to the very top of my first round, Numero Uno, and of course, the feedback was interesting (and always welcome). My take is simple: This 30/30 guy was a fantasy monster last season (third on the Player Rater) and I don't see any reason why that will change in 2012. In fact, he should be mighty motivated to ensure another splendid statistical year.
[+] Enlarge
Ryan BraunAP Photo/Jae C. HongRyan Braun defended himself last week, but he doesn't need to convince most fantasy owners to take him in the first round.
Of course, others do have reasons why Mr. Braun will not repeat his exceptional numbers, so let's discuss them in this forum.
Question: Aren't you worried that he'll regress now that he's off the juice?
Answer: First of all, I'm paraphrasing for what was the most common choice of verbiage. I don't know what Braun did or did not do to trigger a positive test, to be honest, and while the cloud around his reputation might or might not have lessened after his stellar news conference on Friday, the fact is I am not reading too much into the situation. Braun had a magical year. He's had other terrific seasons as well. This is not Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez producing numbers shown in time to be aberrant to their respective careers. Braun hit 33 home runs, knocked in 111 runs, scored 109 and hit .332. He stole 33 bases. The previous four seasons he hit .307 and averaged 32 home runs, 105 RBIs, 99 runs and 16 steals. Braun's 2011 might end up an outlier to some degree -- mainly batting average and steals -- but he's not Jason Bay, either. Braun has been a top-5 player for years.
I'm not a doctor, and let's face it, even doctors can't say for sure to what effect steroids play a precise role on performance. We don't know if Braun took anything, and if he did, when he actually took it, and I'm simply not going to play the guessing game projecting ahead and expecting major regression. I expect he'll remain, as he was before, one of the most durable and consistent players in the game, one of perhaps five or so outfielders capable of making a run at 30/30, and safe to own.
Question: Losing Prince Fielder has to hurt his numbers, doesn't it?
Answer: I just don't buy the notion of lineup protection, folks. If I did, then rest assured Albert Pujols wouldn't be my No. 3 player off the draft board. Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and … what else have the Angels got? Plus, take a closer look at Fielder, if you will. In 2010 he hit .261 with only 83 RBIs. In fact, in two of the previous three seasons leading up to 2011, Fielder wasn't as good as most people think, failing to achieve even a .880 OPS, which is essentially what Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence and Aramis Ramirez provided last season.
Oddly enough, assuming Braun returns to his cozy No. 3 lineup slot, new Brewers third baseman Ramirez is penciled in to "protect" him in the order. I don't think Ramirez is a great fantasy option for this season, but I can't argue against him being an offensive threat. Yes, he's not Fielder, but so what if Braun walks a few more times than normal? He'll be on base and those are potential steals. Jose Bautista's walk rate exploded, and he still provided massive numbers. Heck, I still like what the Brewers have following Braun in the order more than what the Angels protect Pujols with, and same with Bautista in Toronto, Matt Kemp in Los Angeles, etc.
Question: Isn't the potential Braun downside enough to scare you for exalting him that highly?
Answer: Not at all. In fact, go through the rest of the first round and find me a player sans downside. Let me also add that nobody is safe from testing positive for something. I never thought Braun would, for example.
Here's the rest of my top 10, as of today, with potential downside, though I don't really buy the downside as likely to occur.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Switching positions often trips hitters up. And while I'm not big on lineup protection, who's protecting him?
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: Switching leagues often trips hitters up. And just look at the rest of that underwhelming lineup.
4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Who owns the franchise? And didn't this guy hit .249 in 2010?
5. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Home runs did drop from 54 to 43. If they drop by 11 again, he's not special. And he did hit .260 in 2010.
6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: Has averaged a mere 129 games played the past four seasons.
7. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Well, still hasn't reached even 90 RBIs in a season, and durability has also been a concern.
8. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: Hmmm. Doesn't steal many bases? Strikeout rate went way, way up? Home run derby aftereffects … OK, not much downside here.
9. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami Marlins: Just look at 2011. And he's switching positions.
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox: We could say look at 2010, but obviously his home run rate could return to his prior levels.
Yes, Braun has some downside, but those playing amateur psychologist would need to do so on many of the players they'd consider drafting.
Anyway, there's my updated top 10. Sadly, when Braun said he had been judged guilty before being proven innocent, he had a point. Look where everyone in fantasy ranked him! Well, now he's where he belongs, right at the top.
Shocked Molina got THAT much. I thought he'd get 4/44 or something like that
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thanks for the help Pro, appreciated
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thanks for the help Pro, appreciated
- 20,620
- 1,615
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2007
will do
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- Joined
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will do
Free agent fantasy.
Since they're part of the "big three" when it comes to the top prospects in the game, let's throw Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Matt Moore into the mix as well. Three players universally considered the top trio of prospects in baseball. Three players universally seen as future stars, and by many as MVP or Cy Young candidates. Three players who are as much as half a decade, if not more, from their prime. If Darvish is worth a total outlay of well over $100 million for six years (and Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes worth nearly $40 million for four years), what would teams be willing to pay for these three once-in-a-generation talents on the free-agent market?
To find out, I posed the following question to a variety of industry insiders at every level of baseball operations, from area scout to general manager: "The agents for the three top prospects in baseball discover a loophole, and Moore, Harper and Trout are all made free agents. Your predictions for how crazy the bidding would get and which player would get the most?"
The answers were wide-ranging, but in the end, teams are all-in on the trio.
Nearly all respondents focused on how these hypothetical deals require a different approach as, in many ways, they are the opposite of free-agent deals.
"The toughest thing for me is how the contract structure would go," said an American League scouting official. "Spending money on an untested player that probably hasn't fully physically matured and losing him before his prime physical years, I would want added club protection on the back side.
"It's the inverse of a major free-agent deal where you pay for the first couple of years in prime production and usually suck on the back end. With these players you would be sucking on the front end in all likelihood in order to reap the back-end benefits of years three to seven-plus."
[+] Enlarge
AP Images/Yomiuri ShimbunThe Rangers spent more on Darvish than the Angels spent to lock up C.J. Wilson, Texas' former ace.
Contract length quickly turned into the big issue for teams, as six years from now the three might be just hitting their peak and becoming high-priced free agents at maximum productivity.
"I'm not sure this should play into the discussion, but how valuable are Harper or Trout for their age 24-27 seasons?" asked a National League team official. "It would be interesting to see if agents would prefer a shorter or longer deal for their clients in search of not only money now, but bigger paydays down the road."
In addition, Moore's position worked against him in the open market, at least in comparison to the two outfielders. For Harper and Trout, insiders split into two camps: those looking at a five or six-year deal in the neighborhood of $80 million and those looking to go a decade or more and well exceeding nine figures. For Moore, no team was willing to commit to a deal that long, but he often had the best deal in terms of annual salary.
"I think Moore gets the biggest deal just based on the starting pitching market and major league readiness," said an American League GM.
"He'd get less years for sure, but he might get the most guaranteed money," added a National League front office member.
Another official with an American League team predicted that teams would throw rationality to the wind.
"We'd have some caution doing [a huge deal] for a relatively untested pitcher, but would pay him those dollars anyway to land that type of talent," he said.
[h3]The results[/h3]
1. Harper
Average offer: 8 years, $113 million
Best offer: 8 years, $150 million
"I would place the highest value on Harper," said an American League official, "when given the lockup period, and a young All-Star-caliber positional player with elite hit and power skills."
2. Trout
Average offer: 8 years, $102 million
Best offer: 8 years, $120 million
"I favor Trout because I think teams would have more certainty that he's big league-ready right now and can step in as an average major league player at his position," said a National League front-office member. "Harper might be a tick behind that."
3. Moore
Average offer: 6 years, $83 million
Best offer: 8 years, $144 million
"Moore has a ton of talent and the Rays signed him to a great deal," said a National League front-office member. "But there is some risk involved with him just because he's a pitcher, and he's somebody who has struggled in the past to control the strike zone."
You read that right. Harper and Trout's average offer was more than the total outlay for Darvish (including posting fee), and all three would be paid more than Darvish, whose contract is for $60 million over six years. Those numbers might be shocking, but they shouldn't be.
"Based on our organizational assessments all three would be ahead of Darvish and Cespedes," said one AL exec.
But beyond all the hypothetical offers, nearly all the respondents made a point of discussing how fascinating, if not downright entertaining, the entire process would be. Even the official who submitted the highest bid on Harper added "… and I might be way light on the position players."
One of the most interesting dynamics of this market that will never exist is the numbers of teams potentially involved in the bidding. In traditional free agency, part of the way clubs assess the market on a player is by counting potential suitors, but on these prospective long-term deals, both good teams and rebuilding teams buying into a future prime would be interested.
"The bidding would be insane because what team would not at least check in with all three of these guys' agents?" asked a National League official. "Wouldn't 20-plus teams make serious offers, and at least half the teams make competitive ones?
That kind of unprecedented bidding war could produce final tallies far higher than the predicted numbers, which at first blush already seem inflated.
"We may be building on contracts that lack rationality to some extent," said an American League assistant GM. "In the universe of free-agent contracts we are usually surprised by the size of the deals, and rarely the opposite. I would guess this hypothetical situation would turn out the same and we would be stunned by the size deals these players would receive."
While an American League scouting official agreed, he actually found the numbers to be quite rational considering the youth and talent level.
"I hesitate to put a figure out there, but honestly nothing would surprise me," he explained. "I also think they'd have a chance to be on par with the best of the best free-agent contracts in the game."
5 guys whose spring matters.
Ranking early season AL schedules.
Spoiler [+]
If there is one thing we learned from the $111.7 million (including posting fee) that the Texas Rangers spent on Yu Darvish this winter, it's this: Young studs with All-Star upside -- even if they haven't really proved anything in the majors -- are extremely valuable.
While free agents get huge money, they are typically in the middle or end of their prime years when they do, so we really never know what a great young player would get on the open market. The contract for Darvish gives a glimpse.
In January, my good friend Sam Miller of The Orange County Register (@SamMillerOCR) asked an interesting question via Twitter that has stuck in my head for some time now. (I'll expand beyond the 140-character limit to flesh the query out a bit.)
While free agents get huge money, they are typically in the middle or end of their prime years when they do, so we really never know what a great young player would get on the open market. The contract for Darvish gives a glimpse.
In January, my good friend Sam Miller of The Orange County Register (@SamMillerOCR) asked an interesting question via Twitter that has stuck in my head for some time now. (I'll expand beyond the 140-character limit to flesh the query out a bit.)
Since they're part of the "big three" when it comes to the top prospects in the game, let's throw Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Matt Moore into the mix as well. Three players universally considered the top trio of prospects in baseball. Three players universally seen as future stars, and by many as MVP or Cy Young candidates. Three players who are as much as half a decade, if not more, from their prime. If Darvish is worth a total outlay of well over $100 million for six years (and Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes worth nearly $40 million for four years), what would teams be willing to pay for these three once-in-a-generation talents on the free-agent market?
To find out, I posed the following question to a variety of industry insiders at every level of baseball operations, from area scout to general manager: "The agents for the three top prospects in baseball discover a loophole, and Moore, Harper and Trout are all made free agents. Your predictions for how crazy the bidding would get and which player would get the most?"
The answers were wide-ranging, but in the end, teams are all-in on the trio.
Nearly all respondents focused on how these hypothetical deals require a different approach as, in many ways, they are the opposite of free-agent deals.
"The toughest thing for me is how the contract structure would go," said an American League scouting official. "Spending money on an untested player that probably hasn't fully physically matured and losing him before his prime physical years, I would want added club protection on the back side.
"It's the inverse of a major free-agent deal where you pay for the first couple of years in prime production and usually suck on the back end. With these players you would be sucking on the front end in all likelihood in order to reap the back-end benefits of years three to seven-plus."
[+] Enlarge
AP Images/Yomiuri ShimbunThe Rangers spent more on Darvish than the Angels spent to lock up C.J. Wilson, Texas' former ace.
Contract length quickly turned into the big issue for teams, as six years from now the three might be just hitting their peak and becoming high-priced free agents at maximum productivity.
"I'm not sure this should play into the discussion, but how valuable are Harper or Trout for their age 24-27 seasons?" asked a National League team official. "It would be interesting to see if agents would prefer a shorter or longer deal for their clients in search of not only money now, but bigger paydays down the road."
In addition, Moore's position worked against him in the open market, at least in comparison to the two outfielders. For Harper and Trout, insiders split into two camps: those looking at a five or six-year deal in the neighborhood of $80 million and those looking to go a decade or more and well exceeding nine figures. For Moore, no team was willing to commit to a deal that long, but he often had the best deal in terms of annual salary.
"I think Moore gets the biggest deal just based on the starting pitching market and major league readiness," said an American League GM.
"He'd get less years for sure, but he might get the most guaranteed money," added a National League front office member.
Another official with an American League team predicted that teams would throw rationality to the wind.
"We'd have some caution doing [a huge deal] for a relatively untested pitcher, but would pay him those dollars anyway to land that type of talent," he said.
[h3]The results[/h3]
1. Harper
Average offer: 8 years, $113 million
Best offer: 8 years, $150 million
"I would place the highest value on Harper," said an American League official, "when given the lockup period, and a young All-Star-caliber positional player with elite hit and power skills."
2. Trout
Average offer: 8 years, $102 million
Best offer: 8 years, $120 million
"I favor Trout because I think teams would have more certainty that he's big league-ready right now and can step in as an average major league player at his position," said a National League front-office member. "Harper might be a tick behind that."
3. Moore
Average offer: 6 years, $83 million
Best offer: 8 years, $144 million
"Moore has a ton of talent and the Rays signed him to a great deal," said a National League front-office member. "But there is some risk involved with him just because he's a pitcher, and he's somebody who has struggled in the past to control the strike zone."
You read that right. Harper and Trout's average offer was more than the total outlay for Darvish (including posting fee), and all three would be paid more than Darvish, whose contract is for $60 million over six years. Those numbers might be shocking, but they shouldn't be.
"Based on our organizational assessments all three would be ahead of Darvish and Cespedes," said one AL exec.
But beyond all the hypothetical offers, nearly all the respondents made a point of discussing how fascinating, if not downright entertaining, the entire process would be. Even the official who submitted the highest bid on Harper added "… and I might be way light on the position players."
One of the most interesting dynamics of this market that will never exist is the numbers of teams potentially involved in the bidding. In traditional free agency, part of the way clubs assess the market on a player is by counting potential suitors, but on these prospective long-term deals, both good teams and rebuilding teams buying into a future prime would be interested.
"The bidding would be insane because what team would not at least check in with all three of these guys' agents?" asked a National League official. "Wouldn't 20-plus teams make serious offers, and at least half the teams make competitive ones?
That kind of unprecedented bidding war could produce final tallies far higher than the predicted numbers, which at first blush already seem inflated.
"We may be building on contracts that lack rationality to some extent," said an American League assistant GM. "In the universe of free-agent contracts we are usually surprised by the size of the deals, and rarely the opposite. I would guess this hypothetical situation would turn out the same and we would be stunned by the size deals these players would receive."
While an American League scouting official agreed, he actually found the numbers to be quite rational considering the youth and talent level.
"I hesitate to put a figure out there, but honestly nothing would surprise me," he explained. "I also think they'd have a chance to be on par with the best of the best free-agent contracts in the game."
5 guys whose spring matters.
Spoiler [+]
When it comes to spring training statistics, there are so many problems with the data -- small samples, inferior competition, hilariously small ballparks -- that the numbers generally are just not worth even looking at. In most cases, March numbers can simply be thrown away without a second thought.
However, there are a few instances where spring training performances might actually tell us something. Most famously, http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=Jose BautistaJose Bautista finished the 2009 season with a surprising burst of power, and he carried over that surge into spring training in 2010. The continuation of his revamped approach and swing in spring training could have helped clue us in to the fact that Bautista had undergone a dramatic transformation.
That doesn't mean you should start reading too much into every player's results over the next few weeks, but there are a few players worth keeping an eye on as the spring training games get under way.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Steve NesiusLook for an uptick in strikeout rate for Hellickson during spring training.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4371&position=PJeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
It's a little weird to say that the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year had a performance that raised a lot of red flags, but after he carved up minor league hitters left and right on his way to the big leagues, Hellickson's strikeout rate took a nosedive in the majors. It wasn't even just a struggle adjusting to MLB hitters -- his strikeout rate actually got worse as the season went along, ending the year at just 2.94 K's per 9 in September.
However, Hellickson's swinging strike rate of 9.7 percent -- a measure that has demonstrated some predictive power when it comes to forecasting future strikeout rate -- was actually quite good, placing him among the likes of strikeout pitchers such as http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3137&position=PMax Scherzer, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3403&position=PRicky Romero, and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=PGio Gonzalez.
Given that his minor league strikeout rates and his swinging strike rate both suggest that he should get more whiffs than he did in 2011 (he fanned 9.4 per 9 at Triple-A Durham in 2010), be on the lookout for an uptick in strikeout rate by Hellickson in spring training. As David Appelman showed back in 2008, there is some correlation between a spring training change in a pitcher's K/9 and his regular-season strikeout rate.
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Joy R. Absalon/US PresswireWieters finally began to show power late last season.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4298&position=CMatt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
Wieters hasn't exactly lived up to the hype surrounding him since the Orioles selected him with the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft. The most disappointing part of his major league performance so far has been his overall lack of power -- a career .415 slugging percentage is not what the Orioles envisioned.
However, there's still reason to believe that Wieters has more thump than he's shown, and he might have begun to tap into some of the natural loft in his swing as the 2011 season came to a close.
After hitting just seven home runs in the first three months of the season, Wieters launched seven in September alone, and 24 of his 47 hits in the final two months of the season went for extra bases.
The fact that he was able to sustain a well-above-average contact rate while also driving the ball more frequently suggests that Wieters still has the skills to be a dominant offensive force, and the final two months of 2011 could be a harbinger of good things to come in 2012.
[+] Enlarge
Jeff Moffett/Icon SMIMatusz's key to past success was getting ahead of hitters.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2646&position=PBrian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
While Wieters ended the year on a high note, his battery mate did the exact opposite, giving up 17 runs in just eight innings in September, closing a miserable season in the worst way possible. Matusz's problems have been tied to a loss of velocity -- his fastball averaged 91.5 mph during his rookie season of 2009, but was just 88.5 mph last year -- but he was getting pounded even as he got his fastball back over 90 at the end of the year.
Keeping an eye on his velocity in spring training will be important, but Matusz will also need to show that he can command the ball in the strike zone with regularity. He doesn't have the power repertoire that will allow him to get away with poor location, so if he's going to work his way back into Baltimore's rotation, he'll have to show he can hit his spots and throw strikes consistently.
Keep an eye not only on the radar gun when Matusz takes the mound, but on the percentage of pitches he throws for strikes -- if he's going to get back to what he was a few years ago, it's going to come because he remembers how to get ahead of hitters once again.
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Peter G. Aiken/US PresswireThe Royals want to see Moustakas continue to drive the ball into the gaps.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4892&position=3BMike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals[/h3]
When the Royals promoted Moustakas in June of last year, they did it to help show Royals fans that they had a bright offensive future, with Moustakas and fellow rookie http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1BEric Hosmer forming a corner infield duo of impact power bats. However, Moustakas had just one extra-base hit in his first month in the major leagues, and then didn't hit a home run in either July or August. His isolated slugging marks (batting average subtracted from slugging percentage) during his first three months in the majors were .053, .064 and .061 -- marks that look normal only if you're http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=443&position=OFJuan Pierre or http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=Luis CastilloLuis Castillo.
However, Moustakas was a different beast in September, collecting a total of 11 extra-base hits, including four home runs. His first three months in the majors suggested he might need more time in Triple-A before being handed a full-time big league job, but with the way he closed the season, Moustakas showed that the Royals' hope wasn't all misplaced.
The Royals will likely want to see Moustakas driving the ball in March like he did to finish 2011, but beyond just raw home run totals (which can be easily inflated in the Arizona air), keep an eye on the percentage of his March hits that go for extra bases. If he's consistently getting the ball into the gaps, then there's a decent chance that his late-season power surge could carry over into 2012.
[+] Enlarge
Rob Grabowski/US PresswireIf Morel is hitting and taking walks this spring, he could continue it during the season.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6402&position=3BBrent Morel, 3B, Chicago White Sox[/h3]
Morel's story is a bit like Moustakas', only far more extreme. His quality glovework has always been ahead of his offensive game, and he's never profiled as much of a power threat in the minors. But his total lack of punch -- he entered September with just two home runs on the season -- was a real problem for the White Sox last year.
He spent the first five months of the year just repeatedly beating the ball into the ground, but during the last month of the season, his results took a complete turn -- he launched eight home runs in 103 plate appearances and posted a .329 ISO, the eighth-best mark in baseball during September. For comparison, that put him right between Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Pena.
That wasn't the only drastic change for Morel in the season's final month -- he also drew 15 walks after taking just seven free passes in April through August. One of the league's least patient and least powerful hitters ended the season by performing like a middle-of-the-order slugger, taking pitches with regularity and driving the ball over the wall when he got ahead in the count. It was the most dramatic change of the season, and was completely out of character with what Morel had done previously in his career. Keep an eye not just on Morel's spring training power, but also his willingness to take the free pass -- the rises of both were connected in September, and if he's still willing to let pitches go, he has a much better chance of sustaining his late-season power boost.
However, there are a few instances where spring training performances might actually tell us something. Most famously, http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=Jose BautistaJose Bautista finished the 2009 season with a surprising burst of power, and he carried over that surge into spring training in 2010. The continuation of his revamped approach and swing in spring training could have helped clue us in to the fact that Bautista had undergone a dramatic transformation.
That doesn't mean you should start reading too much into every player's results over the next few weeks, but there are a few players worth keeping an eye on as the spring training games get under way.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Steve NesiusLook for an uptick in strikeout rate for Hellickson during spring training.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4371&position=PJeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays[/h3]
It's a little weird to say that the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year had a performance that raised a lot of red flags, but after he carved up minor league hitters left and right on his way to the big leagues, Hellickson's strikeout rate took a nosedive in the majors. It wasn't even just a struggle adjusting to MLB hitters -- his strikeout rate actually got worse as the season went along, ending the year at just 2.94 K's per 9 in September.
However, Hellickson's swinging strike rate of 9.7 percent -- a measure that has demonstrated some predictive power when it comes to forecasting future strikeout rate -- was actually quite good, placing him among the likes of strikeout pitchers such as http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3137&position=PMax Scherzer, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3403&position=PRicky Romero, and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=PGio Gonzalez.
Given that his minor league strikeout rates and his swinging strike rate both suggest that he should get more whiffs than he did in 2011 (he fanned 9.4 per 9 at Triple-A Durham in 2010), be on the lookout for an uptick in strikeout rate by Hellickson in spring training. As David Appelman showed back in 2008, there is some correlation between a spring training change in a pitcher's K/9 and his regular-season strikeout rate.
Joy R. Absalon/US PresswireWieters finally began to show power late last season.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4298&position=CMatt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
Wieters hasn't exactly lived up to the hype surrounding him since the Orioles selected him with the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft. The most disappointing part of his major league performance so far has been his overall lack of power -- a career .415 slugging percentage is not what the Orioles envisioned.
However, there's still reason to believe that Wieters has more thump than he's shown, and he might have begun to tap into some of the natural loft in his swing as the 2011 season came to a close.
After hitting just seven home runs in the first three months of the season, Wieters launched seven in September alone, and 24 of his 47 hits in the final two months of the season went for extra bases.
The fact that he was able to sustain a well-above-average contact rate while also driving the ball more frequently suggests that Wieters still has the skills to be a dominant offensive force, and the final two months of 2011 could be a harbinger of good things to come in 2012.
Jeff Moffett/Icon SMIMatusz's key to past success was getting ahead of hitters.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2646&position=PBrian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h3]
While Wieters ended the year on a high note, his battery mate did the exact opposite, giving up 17 runs in just eight innings in September, closing a miserable season in the worst way possible. Matusz's problems have been tied to a loss of velocity -- his fastball averaged 91.5 mph during his rookie season of 2009, but was just 88.5 mph last year -- but he was getting pounded even as he got his fastball back over 90 at the end of the year.
Keeping an eye on his velocity in spring training will be important, but Matusz will also need to show that he can command the ball in the strike zone with regularity. He doesn't have the power repertoire that will allow him to get away with poor location, so if he's going to work his way back into Baltimore's rotation, he'll have to show he can hit his spots and throw strikes consistently.
Keep an eye not only on the radar gun when Matusz takes the mound, but on the percentage of pitches he throws for strikes -- if he's going to get back to what he was a few years ago, it's going to come because he remembers how to get ahead of hitters once again.
Peter G. Aiken/US PresswireThe Royals want to see Moustakas continue to drive the ball into the gaps.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4892&position=3BMike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals[/h3]
When the Royals promoted Moustakas in June of last year, they did it to help show Royals fans that they had a bright offensive future, with Moustakas and fellow rookie http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1BEric Hosmer forming a corner infield duo of impact power bats. However, Moustakas had just one extra-base hit in his first month in the major leagues, and then didn't hit a home run in either July or August. His isolated slugging marks (batting average subtracted from slugging percentage) during his first three months in the majors were .053, .064 and .061 -- marks that look normal only if you're http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=443&position=OFJuan Pierre or http://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=Luis CastilloLuis Castillo.
However, Moustakas was a different beast in September, collecting a total of 11 extra-base hits, including four home runs. His first three months in the majors suggested he might need more time in Triple-A before being handed a full-time big league job, but with the way he closed the season, Moustakas showed that the Royals' hope wasn't all misplaced.
The Royals will likely want to see Moustakas driving the ball in March like he did to finish 2011, but beyond just raw home run totals (which can be easily inflated in the Arizona air), keep an eye on the percentage of his March hits that go for extra bases. If he's consistently getting the ball into the gaps, then there's a decent chance that his late-season power surge could carry over into 2012.
Rob Grabowski/US PresswireIf Morel is hitting and taking walks this spring, he could continue it during the season.
[h3]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6402&position=3BBrent Morel, 3B, Chicago White Sox[/h3]
Morel's story is a bit like Moustakas', only far more extreme. His quality glovework has always been ahead of his offensive game, and he's never profiled as much of a power threat in the minors. But his total lack of punch -- he entered September with just two home runs on the season -- was a real problem for the White Sox last year.
He spent the first five months of the year just repeatedly beating the ball into the ground, but during the last month of the season, his results took a complete turn -- he launched eight home runs in 103 plate appearances and posted a .329 ISO, the eighth-best mark in baseball during September. For comparison, that put him right between Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Pena.
That wasn't the only drastic change for Morel in the season's final month -- he also drew 15 walks after taking just seven free passes in April through August. One of the league's least patient and least powerful hitters ended the season by performing like a middle-of-the-order slugger, taking pitches with regularity and driving the ball over the wall when he got ahead in the count. It was the most dramatic change of the season, and was completely out of character with what Morel had done previously in his career. Keep an eye not just on Morel's spring training power, but also his willingness to take the free pass -- the rises of both were connected in September, and if he's still willing to let pitches go, he has a much better chance of sustaining his late-season power boost.
Ranking early season AL schedules.
Spoiler [+]
The other day a manager talked about his own philosophy about early-season schedules: He'd rather play the toughest teams early, he said, "because you want to get them before they're going on all cylinders."
Some general managers feel differently, preferring that they have an easier schedule early in the year -- to provide something of a launch pad, and to promote fan interest in the team early in the season. A good start to the season means that by the time the kids are out of school, there's some buzz about your club.
But no matter the preference, early-season schedules have some bearing on front-office planning. If a club falls flat against an easy row of opponents early in the season, it makes it more likely that changes will be made. Sometimes, the schedule can have the impact of an avalanche: At the outset of 2010, the Arizona Diamondbacks faced a brutal schedule -- and the struggles led to the firings of manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Josh Byrnes. Orioles manager Dave Trembley went into that season needing a good start to keep his job, and his fate was virtually assured when the schedule was released: Baltimore had four April series against the Yankees and Red Sox in the span of two weeks.
Strength of schedule isn't always applicable, because you could be lucky enough to face the No. 5 starter on a good team, or unlucky enough to face Felix Hernandez when you play the Mariners.
But some teams face schedule gauntlets early this season, while other teams could get a breezy ride through the middle of May.
Here are the rankings of the early-season American League schedules, from toughest to the easiest. If you're a Twins fan, avert your eyes.
1. Minnesota Twins
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 22 of their first 31
Home games: 15 of their first 31
Notes: If the Twins are playing .500 by the middle of May, they'll be doing well. Minnesota has three series against the Angels before May 15, as well as games against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.
2. Baltimore Orioles
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 21 of their first 37
Home games: 21 of their first 37
Notes: Once again, the Orioles have a shredder interleague schedule -- three games versus the Philadelphia Phillies, three at the Atlanta Braves, in addition to six games against the Washington Nationals.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 19 of their first 32
Home games: 16 of their first 32
Notes: The Rays will hit the ground running with a nice barrage of games against contending teams -- three games at home against the Yankees, then three games at Detroit, then four games at Boston.
4. Seattle Mariners
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 19 of their first 38
Home games: 15 of their first 38
Notes: The Mariners won't see Safeco Field for a while, because they open the season with two games in Japan, then play at Oakland, then play four games against the Rangers.
5. New York Yankees
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 18 of their first 32
Home games: 16 of their first 32
Notes: Before the end of April, the Yankees will have played each of the three other 2011 playoff teams -- the Rays, Tigers and Rangers -- as well as the Red Sox and Angels. Right away, a gauntlet.
6. Oakland Athletics
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 18 of their first 39
Home games: 19 of their first 39
Notes: The Athletics' first 10 games are against the Mariners and Royals, including the opening two-game series in Japan.
7. Kansas City Royals
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 16 of their first 32
Home games: 17 of their first 32
Notes: Of those first 16 games against teams with records over .500 in '11 -- including games against Boston, New York and Detroit -- 10 are at home.
8. Detroit Tigers
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 13 of their first 48
Home games: 24 of their first 48
Notes: After a burst of games early against contenders, the Tigers won't play a team that sported a record over .500 in '11 from April 29 to May 28.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 13 of their first 35
Home games: 15 of their first 35
Notes: The Blue Jays have only two games against the Yankees in the entire first half of the season. There will be a price to pay for the relatively easy early schedule, because their September schedule is stacked with games against the AL East.
10. Chicago White Sox
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 13 of their first 35
Home games: 17 of the first 35
Notes: The White Sox open the season with their first six games on the road.
11. Texas Rangers
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 12 of the first 32
Home games: 13 of the first 32
Notes: The Rangers have a chunk of games against the AL's best 2011 teams right in the middle of April, with consecutive series against the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Rays.
12. Boston Red Sox
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 12 of their first 37
Home games: 21 of their first 37
Notes: From April 23 to May 13, the Red Sox will play a bunch of games against AL Central teams not named the Tigers.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: Six of the first 32
Home games: 17 of the first 32
Notes: The Angels won't play the Rangers for the first time until May 11.
14. Cleveland Indians
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: Six of their first 30
Home games: 18 of their first 30
Notes: Incredibly, the Indians will not play a team that finished with a record over .500 last season until April 27, when they play host to the Angels.
We'll have the NL rankings in Wednesday's column.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It was a good time for catchers from Missouri: The Royals signed Salvador Perez to a five-year deal, as Bob Dutton writes, and the St. Louis Cardinals are in the process of completing an agreement with Yadier Molina.
• The group led by Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson is among the final seven groups vying for the Los Angeles Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
• I was at the Tigers' camp on Monday, and manager Jim Leyland was running an infield drill essentially designed to promote communication among the fielders. With a pitch machine, popups were shot into the air, and Leyland encouraged fielders to call for the ball and scream loudly in doing so.
A popup went to the right side of the infield, and Prince Fielder came in. "I GOT IT!" Fielder screamed. "I GOT IT! UH-OH!"
Fielder lunged a little to catch the ball, and everybody there -- the players and fans watching -- all burst out laughing. This is a piece of the fun of spring training.
Concentration is key for the Tigers' infielders, writes John Lowe. Brandon Inge is using a different glove as he tries second base, writes Tom Gage.
• Last season, the Tigers' Brennan Boesch felt that he got into a really good place with his hitting approach. "I kind of let the game come to me," he said. "I tried to have an approach where I'd let the situation dictate what I would do."
Translated: Boesch did a much better job of assessing the strike zone and not giving away strikes by chasing pitches. Boesch had struggled badly in the last months of 2010, hitting .163 after the All-Star break, but last season, he was a little more consistent before a thumb injury sidelined him in August.
Boesch got to hit right in front of Miguel Cabrera, and he learned the approach that pitchers would take against him: They'd often try to get him to swing at off-speed pitches very early in the count, and if they couldn't, they'd challenge him with fastballs because they didn't want anyone on base when Cabrera came to the plate. Cabrera hit cleanup most of the year, and when Boesch was in the No. 3 spot, he batted .339.
This is all worth noting because Boesch might be in the best hitting spot in the world in 2012: He's expected to hit in the No. 2 spot, ahead of Cabrera and Fielder, the most dynamic combination of No. 3 and No. 4 hitters in the game.
Boesch, by the count: He hit 10 of his 16 homers last year after getting ahead in the count 1-0.
• Carlos Marmol did some trash-talking, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
• Anthony Rendon is impressing the Nationals, but now everybody is wondering: Where is he going to play?
• Shane Victorino says again that he needs to bunt more, as David Murphy writes.
• Jason Varitek will announce his retirement on Thursday, as Peter Abraham writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Jays hope that Adam Lind has the back of Jose Bautista, writes Robert MacLeod.
2. Robin Ventura is thinking about shaking up the White Sox outfield.
3. Bobby Abreu says he'll take a wait-and-see approach on what the Angels' plans are for him, writes Bill Plunkett.
4. Asdrubal Cabrera says he wants to stay with the Indians.
5. Ozzie Guillen won't change the Marlins' alcohol policies, writes Juan Rodriguez.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The MRI confirmed Oakland's worst fears: Scott Sizemore is out for the year.
2. Kerry Wood gave Starlin Castro a scare, as Paul Sullivan writes.
3. Brian Wilson says he'll be ready for Opening Day, as Henry Schulman writes.
4. Joel Zumaya says it might be time to retire. That's how he feels today; I suspect that within a year, when he's again throwing well -- and he was throwing the ball great before he got hurt -- he will change his mind. We'll see.
5. The Rays believe Matt Moore's recent injury is a minor thing.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. The White Sox are taking a close look at reliever Addison Reed.
2. Bryce Harper is likely to start the spring training opener.
3. Brian Sanches is hoping to catch on with the Phillies, writes Matt Gelb.
4. Chris Coghlan is fighting for a job, writes Clark Spencer.
5. Jack Cust wants to have an impact with the Houston Astros, writes Zachary Levine.
Some general managers feel differently, preferring that they have an easier schedule early in the year -- to provide something of a launch pad, and to promote fan interest in the team early in the season. A good start to the season means that by the time the kids are out of school, there's some buzz about your club.
But no matter the preference, early-season schedules have some bearing on front-office planning. If a club falls flat against an easy row of opponents early in the season, it makes it more likely that changes will be made. Sometimes, the schedule can have the impact of an avalanche: At the outset of 2010, the Arizona Diamondbacks faced a brutal schedule -- and the struggles led to the firings of manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Josh Byrnes. Orioles manager Dave Trembley went into that season needing a good start to keep his job, and his fate was virtually assured when the schedule was released: Baltimore had four April series against the Yankees and Red Sox in the span of two weeks.
Strength of schedule isn't always applicable, because you could be lucky enough to face the No. 5 starter on a good team, or unlucky enough to face Felix Hernandez when you play the Mariners.
But some teams face schedule gauntlets early this season, while other teams could get a breezy ride through the middle of May.
Here are the rankings of the early-season American League schedules, from toughest to the easiest. If you're a Twins fan, avert your eyes.
1. Minnesota Twins
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 22 of their first 31
Home games: 15 of their first 31
Notes: If the Twins are playing .500 by the middle of May, they'll be doing well. Minnesota has three series against the Angels before May 15, as well as games against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox.
2. Baltimore Orioles
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 21 of their first 37
Home games: 21 of their first 37
Notes: Once again, the Orioles have a shredder interleague schedule -- three games versus the Philadelphia Phillies, three at the Atlanta Braves, in addition to six games against the Washington Nationals.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 19 of their first 32
Home games: 16 of their first 32
Notes: The Rays will hit the ground running with a nice barrage of games against contending teams -- three games at home against the Yankees, then three games at Detroit, then four games at Boston.
4. Seattle Mariners
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 19 of their first 38
Home games: 15 of their first 38
Notes: The Mariners won't see Safeco Field for a while, because they open the season with two games in Japan, then play at Oakland, then play four games against the Rangers.
5. New York Yankees
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 18 of their first 32
Home games: 16 of their first 32
Notes: Before the end of April, the Yankees will have played each of the three other 2011 playoff teams -- the Rays, Tigers and Rangers -- as well as the Red Sox and Angels. Right away, a gauntlet.
6. Oakland Athletics
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 18 of their first 39
Home games: 19 of their first 39
Notes: The Athletics' first 10 games are against the Mariners and Royals, including the opening two-game series in Japan.
7. Kansas City Royals
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 16 of their first 32
Home games: 17 of their first 32
Notes: Of those first 16 games against teams with records over .500 in '11 -- including games against Boston, New York and Detroit -- 10 are at home.
8. Detroit Tigers
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 13 of their first 48
Home games: 24 of their first 48
Notes: After a burst of games early against contenders, the Tigers won't play a team that sported a record over .500 in '11 from April 29 to May 28.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 13 of their first 35
Home games: 15 of their first 35
Notes: The Blue Jays have only two games against the Yankees in the entire first half of the season. There will be a price to pay for the relatively easy early schedule, because their September schedule is stacked with games against the AL East.
10. Chicago White Sox
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 13 of their first 35
Home games: 17 of the first 35
Notes: The White Sox open the season with their first six games on the road.
11. Texas Rangers
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 12 of the first 32
Home games: 13 of the first 32
Notes: The Rangers have a chunk of games against the AL's best 2011 teams right in the middle of April, with consecutive series against the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Rays.
12. Boston Red Sox
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: 12 of their first 37
Home games: 21 of their first 37
Notes: From April 23 to May 13, the Red Sox will play a bunch of games against AL Central teams not named the Tigers.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: Six of the first 32
Home games: 17 of the first 32
Notes: The Angels won't play the Rangers for the first time until May 11.
14. Cleveland Indians
Games against teams with winning records in 2011: Six of their first 30
Home games: 18 of their first 30
Notes: Incredibly, the Indians will not play a team that finished with a record over .500 last season until April 27, when they play host to the Angels.
We'll have the NL rankings in Wednesday's column.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It was a good time for catchers from Missouri: The Royals signed Salvador Perez to a five-year deal, as Bob Dutton writes, and the St. Louis Cardinals are in the process of completing an agreement with Yadier Molina.
• The group led by Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson is among the final seven groups vying for the Los Angeles Dodgers, writes Bill Shaikin.
• I was at the Tigers' camp on Monday, and manager Jim Leyland was running an infield drill essentially designed to promote communication among the fielders. With a pitch machine, popups were shot into the air, and Leyland encouraged fielders to call for the ball and scream loudly in doing so.
A popup went to the right side of the infield, and Prince Fielder came in. "I GOT IT!" Fielder screamed. "I GOT IT! UH-OH!"
Fielder lunged a little to catch the ball, and everybody there -- the players and fans watching -- all burst out laughing. This is a piece of the fun of spring training.
Concentration is key for the Tigers' infielders, writes John Lowe. Brandon Inge is using a different glove as he tries second base, writes Tom Gage.
• Last season, the Tigers' Brennan Boesch felt that he got into a really good place with his hitting approach. "I kind of let the game come to me," he said. "I tried to have an approach where I'd let the situation dictate what I would do."
Translated: Boesch did a much better job of assessing the strike zone and not giving away strikes by chasing pitches. Boesch had struggled badly in the last months of 2010, hitting .163 after the All-Star break, but last season, he was a little more consistent before a thumb injury sidelined him in August.
Boesch got to hit right in front of Miguel Cabrera, and he learned the approach that pitchers would take against him: They'd often try to get him to swing at off-speed pitches very early in the count, and if they couldn't, they'd challenge him with fastballs because they didn't want anyone on base when Cabrera came to the plate. Cabrera hit cleanup most of the year, and when Boesch was in the No. 3 spot, he batted .339.
This is all worth noting because Boesch might be in the best hitting spot in the world in 2012: He's expected to hit in the No. 2 spot, ahead of Cabrera and Fielder, the most dynamic combination of No. 3 and No. 4 hitters in the game.
Boesch, by the count: He hit 10 of his 16 homers last year after getting ahead in the count 1-0.
• Carlos Marmol did some trash-talking, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
• Anthony Rendon is impressing the Nationals, but now everybody is wondering: Where is he going to play?
• Shane Victorino says again that he needs to bunt more, as David Murphy writes.
• Jason Varitek will announce his retirement on Thursday, as Peter Abraham writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Jays hope that Adam Lind has the back of Jose Bautista, writes Robert MacLeod.
2. Robin Ventura is thinking about shaking up the White Sox outfield.
3. Bobby Abreu says he'll take a wait-and-see approach on what the Angels' plans are for him, writes Bill Plunkett.
4. Asdrubal Cabrera says he wants to stay with the Indians.
5. Ozzie Guillen won't change the Marlins' alcohol policies, writes Juan Rodriguez.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The MRI confirmed Oakland's worst fears: Scott Sizemore is out for the year.
2. Kerry Wood gave Starlin Castro a scare, as Paul Sullivan writes.
3. Brian Wilson says he'll be ready for Opening Day, as Henry Schulman writes.
4. Joel Zumaya says it might be time to retire. That's how he feels today; I suspect that within a year, when he's again throwing well -- and he was throwing the ball great before he got hurt -- he will change his mind. We'll see.
5. The Rays believe Matt Moore's recent injury is a minor thing.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. The White Sox are taking a close look at reliever Addison Reed.
2. Bryce Harper is likely to start the spring training opener.
3. Brian Sanches is hoping to catch on with the Phillies, writes Matt Gelb.
4. Chris Coghlan is fighting for a job, writes Clark Spencer.
5. Jack Cust wants to have an impact with the Houston Astros, writes Zachary Levine.
- Status