2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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I feel like there is absolutely no reason to compare a potential Hosmer extension with McCutchen's. 
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Back from Banned camp............SMFH.

Yo Bobbs.........Looking into getting some tickets to a cards/cubs game in the CHI, you down?
 
Back from Banned camp............SMFH.

Yo Bobbs.........Looking into getting some tickets to a cards/cubs game in the CHI, you down?
 
Going to the Twins/Orioles Spring Training game on Wednesday.
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First row
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Going to the Twins/Orioles Spring Training game on Wednesday.
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First row
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Originally Posted by pacmagic2002

Back from Banned camp............SMFH.

Yo Bobbs.........Looking into getting some tickets to a cards/cubs game in the CHI, you down?


Not in Chicago bro
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Originally Posted by pacmagic2002

Back from Banned camp............SMFH.

Yo Bobbs.........Looking into getting some tickets to a cards/cubs game in the CHI, you down?


Not in Chicago bro
laugh.gif
 
No light at the end of the Mets tunnel.

Spoiler [+]
There will be a happy ending with the Los Angeles Dodgers. There will be new owners from the group of eight bidders that remain, as Bill Shaikin writes, and sometime early in the season, there will be a news conference in which the new owners will be introduced.

They will talk about their grand vision for the Dodgers' future. They will talk about being aggressive, about pursuing the best players, and the Dodgers will be in a unique position to do this. They have relatively little money owed in long-term contracts, and with their payroll slashed to a scant $90 million -- about half of that of other superpower teams -- they will soon operate with a new, whopper television contract in place.

They will be able to pursue Cole Hamels in free agency next fall, if he doesn't sign with the Philadelphia Phillies, or Matt Cain, if he doesn't sign with the San Francisco Giants. Maybe they'll save their tens of millions of dollars to go after Joey Votto when the Cincinnati Reds first baseman becomes a free agent in the fall of 2013. Even if they took a more conservative route, they would make the team better, because the financial impact on the team under Frank McCourt was draconian.

There is light at the end of the Dodgers' very dark chapter.

The new owners will be viewed as heroes, beloved and embraced. The new owners could never look quite as good, quite so much as the knights riding in to save the day, if not for the ugly situation that preceded them, from the embarrassing public fight to the cut of the payroll to the diminishment of the on-field product.

Which brings us to the New York Mets.

There is no end in sight to the ugliness for the team's franchise. There are no indications that a magical solution is around the corner for the ballclub, its fans or owners.

Mets owner Fred Wilpon is 75 years old and in his fourth decade in the sport, and when you bump into baseball executives who know him, most will invariably bestow one of the highest compliments given in this sport. "He's a baseball guy," said a NL official in the first week of spring training.

Wilpon may not have played the game at a high level, nor necessarily possess the highest acumen in the sport, and of course, he made his first big money outside of baseball. But he is a baseball guy.

If he was an absentee owner who bought the team as an effort to make money, well, this would all be very simple. He would sell the club, pay off his debts and move on. This is what McCourt is doing -- Frank McCourt, the L.A. carpetbagger who has never been viewed as a baseball guy.

The Mets are Wilpon's legacy. If he were to write an autobiography, the Mets would undoubtedly be a major element of how he described his life -- the owner of the team that won the World Series, that shared in the first "Subway Series" since 1957. The owner who oversaw construction of a ballpark that draws its DNA from the Brooklyn neighborhood in which Wilpon grew up.

In the Madoff case, Wilpon is fighting to preserve his life's work. If you want a sense of his desperation, maybe we could draw a lesson from the last days of another Brooklyn product: Joe Paterno, defying and battling with a board of trustees in his 62nd year as a Penn State coach. Paterno, after all, was a football guy, who believed his life's enduring work was his program.

Wilpon is clinging to his baseball team, under the weight of mounting debt. He has borrowed money from Major League Baseball, from banks, and he affected the greatest one-year cut in payroll in the history of the sport -- more than $50 million. Monday's ruling means that Wilpon will owe tens of millions more to the Madoff case trust.

The financial pressure on Wilpon grows. For Mets fans, the solution could not be more clear: They want the team sold. They want moneyed knights riding in and taking over a franchise that has the same kind of financial potential the Dodgers have. They want to be the team that bids against the Phillies for Hamels, and tries to pry Cain away from the Giants, or Votto from the Reds.

But there is no end in sight, because Wilpon is a baseball guy. The team's business is essentially on hold until the Madoff situation is settled, and Wilpon knows how much money he really has. Jose Reyes walked away without getting an offer. David Wright could be gone in a year.

When will clarity occur? Weeks, or months, or years? Who knows?

For the Dodgers, there is a new day coming, very soon.

But with the Mets, the future is murky, at best.

Scott Boras says the Mets need new ownership.

The latest ruling could face Wright out, writes Bob Klapisch.

With Monday's decision, the team could be facing a season of despair, writes Jeff Bradley.

The glare on Mets general manager Sandy Alderson is about to intensify, writes Joel Sherman. From Joel's column:
  • The case -- and the countersuits it almost certainly will spawn -- promises to drag on. Thus, so does the financial gloom that looms over the organization.
  • This is why Alderson's goodwill clock is ticking. Fans and media will not put off indefinitely how long he has to author a product that will defy that shrinking payroll. While the anger is raw against ownership, I sense fatigue setting in on this soap opera. Fans are trying to recondition muscles of optimism associated with this time of year.
  • Alderson needs progress. In wins. In growth of players. In unmistakable earmarks of a better tomorrow coming, well, a lot closer to tomorrow than a few years down the road.
  • "No one has higher expectations for myself than me," Alderson said. "I expect people to have strong feelings and high expectations and that they need to see immediate improvement."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Bryce Harper went 2-for-2, including an Ichiro single, and his manager says he does not get tired.

Of all the managers in the big leagues, I cannot imagine anyone who would put the spurs to Harper in the same manner Davey Johnson does. From Adam Kilgore's story:
  • After tonight, he'll have played more than any Nationals player. And it doesn't sound like Davey Johnson has any plans to scale back Harper's playing schedule.
  • "[Shoot], he's 19," Johnson said. "I asked him the other day, I said, 'Are you tired?' He said, 'You see the girl with the red lips over there?' He's not tired. He's just got a lot of energy. When I was 19, I didn't get tired."
• Harper has a right-handed twin, and his name is Brett Lawrie. The Toronto Blue Jays are never dull when he's around, writes Ken Fidlin.

• With Andrew McCutchen locked down to a new deal, the Pirates' focus now turns to Neil Walker, writes Michael Sanserino. Pittsburgh fans can now put Barry Bonds behind them, as Rob Biertempfel writes.

• A couple of observations after visiting Phillies camp Monday.

1. Juan Pierre is a good bet to make the team. There is something about Pierre's work ethic that is reassuring for managers desperate for daily energy, and while the sabermetrics crowd has never been a fan of Pierre, he is a human metronome in his approach and production. In six of the past eight seasons, Pierre has posted more than 175 hits -- and in 2011, his 178 hits for the White Sox were 26 more than any member of the Phillies.

2. Sure, the Phillies can re-sign Hamels, but it's pretty evident that it's going to take a top-of-the-market offer to do it, something in the $110-130 million range, along the lines of what Johan Santana and Cliff Lee signed for. If they sign Hamels, it's hard to imagine they could keep Shane Victorino, who is looking for a five-year deal in free agency, and it could be very difficult to re-sign Hunter Pence. Should Hamels have a $20-25 million annual salary into the future, the Phillies would be committed to about $90-95 million annually to four players in the seasons ahead -- Lee, Roy Halladay, Hamels and Ryan Howard.

• The New York Yankees like what they see in young outfielder Zoilo Almonte, but that doesn't mean he's going to make their roster; he could be trade bait this spring for some team looking for an extra outfielder.

Luke Scott is with the Tampa Bay Rays and always has a whole lot to say, as Martin Fennelly writes.

• The Rockies' Alex White could face an "extreme DUI."
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Josh Johnson threw and felt good, writes Greg Cote.

2. Shaun Marcum has a sore shoulder, and it's likely he got a cortisone injection, writes Tom Haudricourt.

3. Ryan Madson has a sore elbow, but he isn't worried.

4. Alex Cobb felt good in his return to the mound.

5. Freddie Freeman is scheduled to start today, as mentioned in this David O'Brien notebook.

6. Johan Santana is set to make his next start.

7. Clay Buchholz went back to work, as Ron Borges writes.

8. Carl Crawford is all but certain to miss the start of the season, writes Michael Silverman.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Kansas City Royals have been grinding through negotiations with Alex Gordon, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they got something done.

2. The Phillies' trades may prove to be costly, writes Bob Brookover.

3. The St. Louis Cardinals made some camp moves, as Rick Hummel writes.

4. The time was right for Michael Cuddyer to move on from the Minnesota Twins, he says.

5. Real negotiations between the Giants and Oakland Athletics haven't even started, writes Tim Kawakami.

6. Josh Hamilton is looking to have a monster season.

7. The San Diego Padres will stay in Peoria for the next 22 years.

8. The Baltimore Orioles are mad at themselves for what happened in South Korea.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Alejandro De Aza is ready to be the leadoff guy, writes Mark Gonzalez.

2. A former first base prospect is lighting up radar guns in Oakland camp, as Susan Slusser writes.

3. Clay Hensley is trying to win a job with the Giants, as Henry Schulman writes.

4. Some phenoms are pitching for the Mariners' future, writes Steve Kelley.

5. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a bunch of outfielders.

6. A bunch of guys are battling for the No. 5 spot in the Boston rotation, writes Nick Cafardo.

These kids are all right.

Spoiler [+]
Much of my job revolves around prospects, from the time they first show up on the radar for the draft or the July 2 international deadline, through their time in the minors until they reach the majors and exhaust their rookie eligibility, at which point my attention turns to the next crop.

Most top-tier prospects succeed in their first year or two; some flame out quickly, get hurt or see some major flaw in their game exposed early on. But some top prospects take several years to become truly valuable big leaguers, whether due to lack of opportunity or the need for mechanical or approach adjustments. Look at Carlos Pena, who finally had a star-level season six years and four organizations after his major league debut, or Philip Humber, who broke out last year at 28 for his fourth organization after just 51 previous big league innings. With those examples and others in mind, here are six former top prospects who struggled in 2011 but in whose futures I still believe, plus one bonus name who broke out last year but still has potential.

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Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
Heyward was my pick for the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year award that Buster Posey won, but Heyward's shoulder injury from that season caused him to alter his swing in a way that destroyed a good chunk of his offensive value in 2011. He started loading his hands higher and swinging more down at the ball than up through it, producing weaker ground balls and a lot of popups on balls he would otherwise have been able to drive. The good news, aside from the fact that he's just 22, is that his plate discipline remained strong, and early word from Atlanta camp is that he's made some adjustments to improve his mechanics. We'll see how that plays over the next month, but the physical ability and batting eye are still there to allow him to return to greatness this year.
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Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners
I've been a Smoak fan since his freshman year at South Carolina and expected much bigger things from him after he started strong in 2011, only to have a lingering thumb injury affect his ability to grip the bat, ruining his performance for most of the summer. The 25-year-old looked better in September and made higher-quality contact, but that month often brings weaker competition and the sample was too small to matter. He'll need to stay healthy for a full season (which he's only done once in three pro seasons), and Safeco Field might keep his power numbers down, but Smoak has always had a good idea of the strike zone and great hand-eye coordination to keep his contact rates up. I still expect him to hit for average and as much power as the pitcher-friendly park will permit.

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Travis Snider, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
Snider hasn't been good in various big league trials over the past three years, but he's also never had a full season without the risk of demotion if he didn't perform in fairly short order, a situation that may still not exist with Eric Thames available to take Snider's place. But Snider, still just 24, hit at every level in the minors, including repeated trips to Triple-A (where he's learning nothing at this point because Vegas is such a good place to hit), and is now starting his hands lower, just above his waist, far enough back that he needs just a small trigger to load. This should allow him to drive the ball better, reducing the number of times he gets on top of it and hits it into the ground, and could give him more time to react to a breaking ball. I hate giving up on a player who's healthy, performed all the way up the ladder and doesn't have a tangible reason for failure like a mechanically unsound swing or horrible plate discipline, which is why I'm including Snider in this list. And yes, you could also include Colby Rasmus here, especially since the Jays have worked on calming down his lower half.

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Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado Rockies
Fowler, who will play at age 26 in 2012, is entering his peak years and has quietly become a solid player over three seasons in the big leagues, including a .280/.374/.411 line against lefties over his career. He has a solid approach with good bat control, keeping his hands inside the ball well, although he overcloses his stance when he gets his front leg down and can't really drive the ball like he should. He's entering what should be his power peak; physical development alone should get him to the 15-homer range, although I think there could be more in there if he gets his feet lined up. While he hasn't been a true "disappointment," his raw numbers have been propped up by Coors Field, and I think he can raise his game to a higher level.

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Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
I was a huge Matusz fan prior to 2011, but his season couldn't have gone worse, and I even hesitated to list him here because there's so much uncertainty. Last spring, Matusz injured his oblique, a strain that typically takes a long period of rest before it heals, but returned too quickly and never regained his former velocity, sitting in the upper 80s and getting whacked around like a pinata all summer. Whether it was really the oblique or something more serious, Matusz's velocity is creeping back up, sitting more like 90-91 in camp so far, which I'll take as a strong positive sign. He has three off-speed weapons to get hitters out, but has to have enough fastball to get ahead in the count to bring those other pitches into play. If he's back to 90-93 by the end of March, look for a big step forward this year.

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Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Drabek was never a control artist coming up through the minors, but nothing in his history indicated that he'd be as wild -- and I don't mean effectively wild, either -- as he was last year (6.3 walks per nine), as early struggles led him to overthrow, which led him to pull himself off line, throw fewer strikes and struggle even more. Drabek didn't lose velocity, but the overthrowing cost him command and flattened out his slider, while his curveball -- his best pitch in the minors -- became almost a weapon of last resort. The Blue Jays have been working with Drabek on keeping his delivery on line to the plate and keeping himself calm on the mound, but they might also need to tinker with his pitch selection and get him throwing that plus breaking ball more. They might have to send Drabek to the minors -- I'd consider Double-A New Hampshire rather than sending him to Las Vegas and the extreme hitters' park where the Jays' Triple-A affiliate plays -- to let him continue to work on keeping his delivery under control, but I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll succeed enough to let the quality of his stuff take over.

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Cameron Maybin, CF, San Diego Padres
Maybin, who turns 25 in April, doesn't need to have a breakout season to be valuable; FanGraphs, valuing his defense highly, had him at 4.7 wins above replacement last year, good for 14th among NL position players. His bat was more valuable than his raw stat line would indicate, since his home field, Petco Park, severely suppresses offense, especially power. He hit .294/.349/.457 on the road with seven of his nine homers, and I think there's quite a bit more power in that bat as he nears his peak, perhaps starting as soon as this year. Even if the value of his defense should dip as he ages, the progress of his bat will more than make up for it. That new five-year, $25 million contract was a good deal for San Diego if he never improves, but if he does, it will look like a masterstroke by this front office.

Other youngsters to watch who have a bit more in them: Rasmus; Drew Stubbs, CF, Cincinnati Reds; Ryan Sweeney, OF, Boston Red Sox; Phil Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees; Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers.

A spring training prospect showcase.

Spoiler [+]
The Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners played a "B" game on Monday morning in Goodyear, Ariz., featuring Cincy's Daniel Corcino (the No. 54 prospect in the minors heading into 2012) and Seattle's Taijuan Walker (No. 24) as the two starting pitchers, after which the Mariners threw all their best pitching prospects with two top hitters in the lineup for good measure.

• Corcino, the Reds right-hander with a remarkable physical resemblance to Johnny Cueto, started out around 88-91 mph, but warmed up and eventually hit 94 in his second inning of work, sitting 90-92 by that point with an average slider, a hard changeup with good action, and what I assume was a cutter at 85-88 that he threw three times.

The 21-year-old has a high leg kick and rotates his hips really well to generate torque and thus arm speed, coming around from a slot just under three-quarters, cutting himself off slightly in his landing so he's a little cross-body. You don't mess with the kind of success he had last year (10.1 strikeouts per nine for low Class A Dayton), but if he struggles at some point I'd like to see him a little more online to the plate.

• Walker, Seattle's first pick (in the sandwich round) in the 2010 draft, looked like he was throwing with about 80 percent effort, starting at 89 and warming up to 92-93 by the end of the first, hitting 94 in the second. His curveball was slow but sharp with a pronounced two-plane break, better at 76 than at 73 when it came out of his hand earlier and was easier hitters to pick it up.

Standing 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, his arm action is absurdly easy, and he stays over the rubber, drifting forward to take a long stride (easy for him, as he has the legs of an ostrich), but his front foot always lands askew, pointing toward the third-base line. I've had scouts tell me they saw Walker hit 99 mph on the gun last season, and if he can hit 94 while more or less throwing a live side session, it's easy to believe.

Danny Hultzen (No. 30 on my top 100) was his usual solid self, especially after a misplay behind him seemed to tick him off. He was 91-93 with a short slider at 78-80 that he moved around very effectively, throwing one changeup at 82 that he left up to a right-handed hitter.

Erasmo Ramirez (off the top 100, but No. 7 in the Mariners' organization) was 90-91, working quickly with a short arm action and some effort in the delivery. He showed both a slider and a curveball, neither plus, and was getting on the side of the ball through much of his outing. Off this one look, I'd probably peg him as a reliever or maybe back-end starter, with the lack of any clear out pitch and the effort he showed.

• Seattle southpaw James Paxton (No. 51 on my top 100) was better in his first inning than his second, sitting 91-93, touching 94 once, but struggling with his breaking ball, with one very sharp one at 78 but the rest softer in velocity and break at 72-76. His arm action has always been long, but he repeats it pretty well and always gets on top of the ball. He's starting on the extreme third base side of the rubber but finishes online toward the plate, landing close to the home-second base axis of the mound.

• Lefty Mauricio Robles, the final Mariners pitcher of the day, seemed to be recovered from his problems with extreme wildness (he walked 39 men in 33 innings last year across four levels, including winter ball), throwing strikes at 88-91 with good deception and a usable curve in the upper 70s.

• Oft-injured Kyle Lotzkar threw for the Reds, sitting 90-93 with a slightly less problematic delivery than he had as an amateur, flashing both a slider and a hard curveball. If I'm the Reds, I put Lotzkar in the bullpen and push him up the ladder as fast as I can while he's momentarily healthy.

• Nick Franklin (No. 57 on the 100) struggled badly in the field at second base, with two awful misplays of ground balls hit directly at him, although he recovered later with a solid play on a grounder to his right that required a quick throw to first. I don't want to extrapolate too much from two bad plays, but if I had to attach an explanation to this (as opposed to the most likely answer, it was just random) I'd say his hands were working a bit slower than usual.

• Vinnie Catricala (No. 8 in the Mariners' organization) has a very simple, straightforward swing, with a little hip turn that won't generate a ton of power, but quick hands and a direct path to the ball with good balance throughout. Most scouts I've talked to about Catricala have him unable to stick at third base, but given the swing and the adequate plate discipline he showed last year I could see him profiling as at least a fringy regular if he has to move to left or first base, whereas at third he could be an above-average regular.

Michael Pineda's reduced velocity.

Spoiler [+]
Michael Pineda made his Yankee debut yesterday – at least, Yankee-debut-in-games-that-don’t-count anyway. He threw two innings, gave up just one hit, didn’t walk anyone, and struck out two batters. The results were pretty successful. However, as Ken Rosenthal reports, the process was slightly less impressive:
Scouts yesterday had #Yankees‘ Pineda at 88-91 – “and there was some effort to get to 91,
 
No light at the end of the Mets tunnel.

Spoiler [+]
There will be a happy ending with the Los Angeles Dodgers. There will be new owners from the group of eight bidders that remain, as Bill Shaikin writes, and sometime early in the season, there will be a news conference in which the new owners will be introduced.

They will talk about their grand vision for the Dodgers' future. They will talk about being aggressive, about pursuing the best players, and the Dodgers will be in a unique position to do this. They have relatively little money owed in long-term contracts, and with their payroll slashed to a scant $90 million -- about half of that of other superpower teams -- they will soon operate with a new, whopper television contract in place.

They will be able to pursue Cole Hamels in free agency next fall, if he doesn't sign with the Philadelphia Phillies, or Matt Cain, if he doesn't sign with the San Francisco Giants. Maybe they'll save their tens of millions of dollars to go after Joey Votto when the Cincinnati Reds first baseman becomes a free agent in the fall of 2013. Even if they took a more conservative route, they would make the team better, because the financial impact on the team under Frank McCourt was draconian.

There is light at the end of the Dodgers' very dark chapter.

The new owners will be viewed as heroes, beloved and embraced. The new owners could never look quite as good, quite so much as the knights riding in to save the day, if not for the ugly situation that preceded them, from the embarrassing public fight to the cut of the payroll to the diminishment of the on-field product.

Which brings us to the New York Mets.

There is no end in sight to the ugliness for the team's franchise. There are no indications that a magical solution is around the corner for the ballclub, its fans or owners.

Mets owner Fred Wilpon is 75 years old and in his fourth decade in the sport, and when you bump into baseball executives who know him, most will invariably bestow one of the highest compliments given in this sport. "He's a baseball guy," said a NL official in the first week of spring training.

Wilpon may not have played the game at a high level, nor necessarily possess the highest acumen in the sport, and of course, he made his first big money outside of baseball. But he is a baseball guy.

If he was an absentee owner who bought the team as an effort to make money, well, this would all be very simple. He would sell the club, pay off his debts and move on. This is what McCourt is doing -- Frank McCourt, the L.A. carpetbagger who has never been viewed as a baseball guy.

The Mets are Wilpon's legacy. If he were to write an autobiography, the Mets would undoubtedly be a major element of how he described his life -- the owner of the team that won the World Series, that shared in the first "Subway Series" since 1957. The owner who oversaw construction of a ballpark that draws its DNA from the Brooklyn neighborhood in which Wilpon grew up.

In the Madoff case, Wilpon is fighting to preserve his life's work. If you want a sense of his desperation, maybe we could draw a lesson from the last days of another Brooklyn product: Joe Paterno, defying and battling with a board of trustees in his 62nd year as a Penn State coach. Paterno, after all, was a football guy, who believed his life's enduring work was his program.

Wilpon is clinging to his baseball team, under the weight of mounting debt. He has borrowed money from Major League Baseball, from banks, and he affected the greatest one-year cut in payroll in the history of the sport -- more than $50 million. Monday's ruling means that Wilpon will owe tens of millions more to the Madoff case trust.

The financial pressure on Wilpon grows. For Mets fans, the solution could not be more clear: They want the team sold. They want moneyed knights riding in and taking over a franchise that has the same kind of financial potential the Dodgers have. They want to be the team that bids against the Phillies for Hamels, and tries to pry Cain away from the Giants, or Votto from the Reds.

But there is no end in sight, because Wilpon is a baseball guy. The team's business is essentially on hold until the Madoff situation is settled, and Wilpon knows how much money he really has. Jose Reyes walked away without getting an offer. David Wright could be gone in a year.

When will clarity occur? Weeks, or months, or years? Who knows?

For the Dodgers, there is a new day coming, very soon.

But with the Mets, the future is murky, at best.

Scott Boras says the Mets need new ownership.

The latest ruling could face Wright out, writes Bob Klapisch.

With Monday's decision, the team could be facing a season of despair, writes Jeff Bradley.

The glare on Mets general manager Sandy Alderson is about to intensify, writes Joel Sherman. From Joel's column:
  • The case -- and the countersuits it almost certainly will spawn -- promises to drag on. Thus, so does the financial gloom that looms over the organization.
  • This is why Alderson's goodwill clock is ticking. Fans and media will not put off indefinitely how long he has to author a product that will defy that shrinking payroll. While the anger is raw against ownership, I sense fatigue setting in on this soap opera. Fans are trying to recondition muscles of optimism associated with this time of year.
  • Alderson needs progress. In wins. In growth of players. In unmistakable earmarks of a better tomorrow coming, well, a lot closer to tomorrow than a few years down the road.
  • "No one has higher expectations for myself than me," Alderson said. "I expect people to have strong feelings and high expectations and that they need to see immediate improvement."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
Bryce Harper went 2-for-2, including an Ichiro single, and his manager says he does not get tired.

Of all the managers in the big leagues, I cannot imagine anyone who would put the spurs to Harper in the same manner Davey Johnson does. From Adam Kilgore's story:
  • After tonight, he'll have played more than any Nationals player. And it doesn't sound like Davey Johnson has any plans to scale back Harper's playing schedule.
  • "[Shoot], he's 19," Johnson said. "I asked him the other day, I said, 'Are you tired?' He said, 'You see the girl with the red lips over there?' He's not tired. He's just got a lot of energy. When I was 19, I didn't get tired."
• Harper has a right-handed twin, and his name is Brett Lawrie. The Toronto Blue Jays are never dull when he's around, writes Ken Fidlin.

• With Andrew McCutchen locked down to a new deal, the Pirates' focus now turns to Neil Walker, writes Michael Sanserino. Pittsburgh fans can now put Barry Bonds behind them, as Rob Biertempfel writes.

• A couple of observations after visiting Phillies camp Monday.

1. Juan Pierre is a good bet to make the team. There is something about Pierre's work ethic that is reassuring for managers desperate for daily energy, and while the sabermetrics crowd has never been a fan of Pierre, he is a human metronome in his approach and production. In six of the past eight seasons, Pierre has posted more than 175 hits -- and in 2011, his 178 hits for the White Sox were 26 more than any member of the Phillies.

2. Sure, the Phillies can re-sign Hamels, but it's pretty evident that it's going to take a top-of-the-market offer to do it, something in the $110-130 million range, along the lines of what Johan Santana and Cliff Lee signed for. If they sign Hamels, it's hard to imagine they could keep Shane Victorino, who is looking for a five-year deal in free agency, and it could be very difficult to re-sign Hunter Pence. Should Hamels have a $20-25 million annual salary into the future, the Phillies would be committed to about $90-95 million annually to four players in the seasons ahead -- Lee, Roy Halladay, Hamels and Ryan Howard.

• The New York Yankees like what they see in young outfielder Zoilo Almonte, but that doesn't mean he's going to make their roster; he could be trade bait this spring for some team looking for an extra outfielder.

Luke Scott is with the Tampa Bay Rays and always has a whole lot to say, as Martin Fennelly writes.

• The Rockies' Alex White could face an "extreme DUI."
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Josh Johnson threw and felt good, writes Greg Cote.

2. Shaun Marcum has a sore shoulder, and it's likely he got a cortisone injection, writes Tom Haudricourt.

3. Ryan Madson has a sore elbow, but he isn't worried.

4. Alex Cobb felt good in his return to the mound.

5. Freddie Freeman is scheduled to start today, as mentioned in this David O'Brien notebook.

6. Johan Santana is set to make his next start.

7. Clay Buchholz went back to work, as Ron Borges writes.

8. Carl Crawford is all but certain to miss the start of the season, writes Michael Silverman.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Kansas City Royals have been grinding through negotiations with Alex Gordon, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they got something done.

2. The Phillies' trades may prove to be costly, writes Bob Brookover.

3. The St. Louis Cardinals made some camp moves, as Rick Hummel writes.

4. The time was right for Michael Cuddyer to move on from the Minnesota Twins, he says.

5. Real negotiations between the Giants and Oakland Athletics haven't even started, writes Tim Kawakami.

6. Josh Hamilton is looking to have a monster season.

7. The San Diego Padres will stay in Peoria for the next 22 years.

8. The Baltimore Orioles are mad at themselves for what happened in South Korea.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Alejandro De Aza is ready to be the leadoff guy, writes Mark Gonzalez.

2. A former first base prospect is lighting up radar guns in Oakland camp, as Susan Slusser writes.

3. Clay Hensley is trying to win a job with the Giants, as Henry Schulman writes.

4. Some phenoms are pitching for the Mariners' future, writes Steve Kelley.

5. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a bunch of outfielders.

6. A bunch of guys are battling for the No. 5 spot in the Boston rotation, writes Nick Cafardo.

These kids are all right.

Spoiler [+]
Much of my job revolves around prospects, from the time they first show up on the radar for the draft or the July 2 international deadline, through their time in the minors until they reach the majors and exhaust their rookie eligibility, at which point my attention turns to the next crop.

Most top-tier prospects succeed in their first year or two; some flame out quickly, get hurt or see some major flaw in their game exposed early on. But some top prospects take several years to become truly valuable big leaguers, whether due to lack of opportunity or the need for mechanical or approach adjustments. Look at Carlos Pena, who finally had a star-level season six years and four organizations after his major league debut, or Philip Humber, who broke out last year at 28 for his fourth organization after just 51 previous big league innings. With those examples and others in mind, here are six former top prospects who struggled in 2011 but in whose futures I still believe, plus one bonus name who broke out last year but still has potential.

atl.gif


Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
Heyward was my pick for the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year award that Buster Posey won, but Heyward's shoulder injury from that season caused him to alter his swing in a way that destroyed a good chunk of his offensive value in 2011. He started loading his hands higher and swinging more down at the ball than up through it, producing weaker ground balls and a lot of popups on balls he would otherwise have been able to drive. The good news, aside from the fact that he's just 22, is that his plate discipline remained strong, and early word from Atlanta camp is that he's made some adjustments to improve his mechanics. We'll see how that plays over the next month, but the physical ability and batting eye are still there to allow him to return to greatness this year.
sea.gif

Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners
I've been a Smoak fan since his freshman year at South Carolina and expected much bigger things from him after he started strong in 2011, only to have a lingering thumb injury affect his ability to grip the bat, ruining his performance for most of the summer. The 25-year-old looked better in September and made higher-quality contact, but that month often brings weaker competition and the sample was too small to matter. He'll need to stay healthy for a full season (which he's only done once in three pro seasons), and Safeco Field might keep his power numbers down, but Smoak has always had a good idea of the strike zone and great hand-eye coordination to keep his contact rates up. I still expect him to hit for average and as much power as the pitcher-friendly park will permit.

tor.gif


Travis Snider, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
Snider hasn't been good in various big league trials over the past three years, but he's also never had a full season without the risk of demotion if he didn't perform in fairly short order, a situation that may still not exist with Eric Thames available to take Snider's place. But Snider, still just 24, hit at every level in the minors, including repeated trips to Triple-A (where he's learning nothing at this point because Vegas is such a good place to hit), and is now starting his hands lower, just above his waist, far enough back that he needs just a small trigger to load. This should allow him to drive the ball better, reducing the number of times he gets on top of it and hits it into the ground, and could give him more time to react to a breaking ball. I hate giving up on a player who's healthy, performed all the way up the ladder and doesn't have a tangible reason for failure like a mechanically unsound swing or horrible plate discipline, which is why I'm including Snider in this list. And yes, you could also include Colby Rasmus here, especially since the Jays have worked on calming down his lower half.

col.gif


Dexter Fowler, CF, Colorado Rockies
Fowler, who will play at age 26 in 2012, is entering his peak years and has quietly become a solid player over three seasons in the big leagues, including a .280/.374/.411 line against lefties over his career. He has a solid approach with good bat control, keeping his hands inside the ball well, although he overcloses his stance when he gets his front leg down and can't really drive the ball like he should. He's entering what should be his power peak; physical development alone should get him to the 15-homer range, although I think there could be more in there if he gets his feet lined up. While he hasn't been a true "disappointment," his raw numbers have been propped up by Coors Field, and I think he can raise his game to a higher level.

bal.gif


Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
I was a huge Matusz fan prior to 2011, but his season couldn't have gone worse, and I even hesitated to list him here because there's so much uncertainty. Last spring, Matusz injured his oblique, a strain that typically takes a long period of rest before it heals, but returned too quickly and never regained his former velocity, sitting in the upper 80s and getting whacked around like a pinata all summer. Whether it was really the oblique or something more serious, Matusz's velocity is creeping back up, sitting more like 90-91 in camp so far, which I'll take as a strong positive sign. He has three off-speed weapons to get hitters out, but has to have enough fastball to get ahead in the count to bring those other pitches into play. If he's back to 90-93 by the end of March, look for a big step forward this year.

tor.gif


Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Drabek was never a control artist coming up through the minors, but nothing in his history indicated that he'd be as wild -- and I don't mean effectively wild, either -- as he was last year (6.3 walks per nine), as early struggles led him to overthrow, which led him to pull himself off line, throw fewer strikes and struggle even more. Drabek didn't lose velocity, but the overthrowing cost him command and flattened out his slider, while his curveball -- his best pitch in the minors -- became almost a weapon of last resort. The Blue Jays have been working with Drabek on keeping his delivery on line to the plate and keeping himself calm on the mound, but they might also need to tinker with his pitch selection and get him throwing that plus breaking ball more. They might have to send Drabek to the minors -- I'd consider Double-A New Hampshire rather than sending him to Las Vegas and the extreme hitters' park where the Jays' Triple-A affiliate plays -- to let him continue to work on keeping his delivery under control, but I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll succeed enough to let the quality of his stuff take over.

sd.gif


Cameron Maybin, CF, San Diego Padres
Maybin, who turns 25 in April, doesn't need to have a breakout season to be valuable; FanGraphs, valuing his defense highly, had him at 4.7 wins above replacement last year, good for 14th among NL position players. His bat was more valuable than his raw stat line would indicate, since his home field, Petco Park, severely suppresses offense, especially power. He hit .294/.349/.457 on the road with seven of his nine homers, and I think there's quite a bit more power in that bat as he nears his peak, perhaps starting as soon as this year. Even if the value of his defense should dip as he ages, the progress of his bat will more than make up for it. That new five-year, $25 million contract was a good deal for San Diego if he never improves, but if he does, it will look like a masterstroke by this front office.

Other youngsters to watch who have a bit more in them: Rasmus; Drew Stubbs, CF, Cincinnati Reds; Ryan Sweeney, OF, Boston Red Sox; Phil Hughes, RHP, New York Yankees; Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers.

A spring training prospect showcase.

Spoiler [+]
The Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners played a "B" game on Monday morning in Goodyear, Ariz., featuring Cincy's Daniel Corcino (the No. 54 prospect in the minors heading into 2012) and Seattle's Taijuan Walker (No. 24) as the two starting pitchers, after which the Mariners threw all their best pitching prospects with two top hitters in the lineup for good measure.

• Corcino, the Reds right-hander with a remarkable physical resemblance to Johnny Cueto, started out around 88-91 mph, but warmed up and eventually hit 94 in his second inning of work, sitting 90-92 by that point with an average slider, a hard changeup with good action, and what I assume was a cutter at 85-88 that he threw three times.

The 21-year-old has a high leg kick and rotates his hips really well to generate torque and thus arm speed, coming around from a slot just under three-quarters, cutting himself off slightly in his landing so he's a little cross-body. You don't mess with the kind of success he had last year (10.1 strikeouts per nine for low Class A Dayton), but if he struggles at some point I'd like to see him a little more online to the plate.

• Walker, Seattle's first pick (in the sandwich round) in the 2010 draft, looked like he was throwing with about 80 percent effort, starting at 89 and warming up to 92-93 by the end of the first, hitting 94 in the second. His curveball was slow but sharp with a pronounced two-plane break, better at 76 than at 73 when it came out of his hand earlier and was easier hitters to pick it up.

Standing 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, his arm action is absurdly easy, and he stays over the rubber, drifting forward to take a long stride (easy for him, as he has the legs of an ostrich), but his front foot always lands askew, pointing toward the third-base line. I've had scouts tell me they saw Walker hit 99 mph on the gun last season, and if he can hit 94 while more or less throwing a live side session, it's easy to believe.

Danny Hultzen (No. 30 on my top 100) was his usual solid self, especially after a misplay behind him seemed to tick him off. He was 91-93 with a short slider at 78-80 that he moved around very effectively, throwing one changeup at 82 that he left up to a right-handed hitter.

Erasmo Ramirez (off the top 100, but No. 7 in the Mariners' organization) was 90-91, working quickly with a short arm action and some effort in the delivery. He showed both a slider and a curveball, neither plus, and was getting on the side of the ball through much of his outing. Off this one look, I'd probably peg him as a reliever or maybe back-end starter, with the lack of any clear out pitch and the effort he showed.

• Seattle southpaw James Paxton (No. 51 on my top 100) was better in his first inning than his second, sitting 91-93, touching 94 once, but struggling with his breaking ball, with one very sharp one at 78 but the rest softer in velocity and break at 72-76. His arm action has always been long, but he repeats it pretty well and always gets on top of the ball. He's starting on the extreme third base side of the rubber but finishes online toward the plate, landing close to the home-second base axis of the mound.

• Lefty Mauricio Robles, the final Mariners pitcher of the day, seemed to be recovered from his problems with extreme wildness (he walked 39 men in 33 innings last year across four levels, including winter ball), throwing strikes at 88-91 with good deception and a usable curve in the upper 70s.

• Oft-injured Kyle Lotzkar threw for the Reds, sitting 90-93 with a slightly less problematic delivery than he had as an amateur, flashing both a slider and a hard curveball. If I'm the Reds, I put Lotzkar in the bullpen and push him up the ladder as fast as I can while he's momentarily healthy.

• Nick Franklin (No. 57 on the 100) struggled badly in the field at second base, with two awful misplays of ground balls hit directly at him, although he recovered later with a solid play on a grounder to his right that required a quick throw to first. I don't want to extrapolate too much from two bad plays, but if I had to attach an explanation to this (as opposed to the most likely answer, it was just random) I'd say his hands were working a bit slower than usual.

• Vinnie Catricala (No. 8 in the Mariners' organization) has a very simple, straightforward swing, with a little hip turn that won't generate a ton of power, but quick hands and a direct path to the ball with good balance throughout. Most scouts I've talked to about Catricala have him unable to stick at third base, but given the swing and the adequate plate discipline he showed last year I could see him profiling as at least a fringy regular if he has to move to left or first base, whereas at third he could be an above-average regular.

Michael Pineda's reduced velocity.

Spoiler [+]
Michael Pineda made his Yankee debut yesterday – at least, Yankee-debut-in-games-that-don’t-count anyway. He threw two innings, gave up just one hit, didn’t walk anyone, and struck out two batters. The results were pretty successful. However, as Ken Rosenthal reports, the process was slightly less impressive:
Scouts yesterday had #Yankees‘ Pineda at 88-91 – “and there was some effort to get to 91,
 
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Positional power rankings: Third base.
Spoiler [+]
Here’s the introduction to the series from Dave Cameron, and here are some caveats: we’re doing our best to guesstimate, the WARs are approximate, there are tiers here that we will try to identify, and the season is a souffle that might rise or might not for any particular team. And yet, the result of all this might be a decent understanding of how the teams stand in comparison to the rest of the league at each position. Surely, at the very least, it will spawn some discussion.

Perhaps we should rethink the defensive spectrum! Perhaps third base is the hardest position! Last year, third baseman had a .707 OPS — worsted only by catchers… and still shortstops. But the .252/.317/.390 collective batting line at the hot corner was just barely better than the shortstops with their .263/.317/.380 ways. That’s not usual.

Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.

Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?

No. 30 — Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Josh Donaldson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.219[/td][td]0.289[/td][td]0.357[/td][td][/td][td]325[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Eric Sogard[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.321[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]150[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Adam Rosales[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.234[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]125[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Steve Parker[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.225[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.329[/td][td][/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
When Scott Sizemore went down for the season with an ACL tear, this house of cards came tumbling down. What’s left is a converted catcher (Donaldson), two possible utility players and/or backup infielders (Sogard and Rosales), and a meh prospect (Parker). If they went through the entire year with these players, there’s a distinct possibility that they manage to put up zero wins collectively. Of course, the rumor is that the team is already looking for a trade, but since that trade might be with #28 on this list, it may not lead to a much better result from the position. Maybe one of the corner outfielders / first basemen / designated hitters can fake it at third for a year? That would fit in with some of the other teams on this list.

No. 29 — Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Jimmy Paredes[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.376[/td][td]-3[/td][td]400[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.258[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.403[/td][td][/td][td]200[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.403[/td][td]-6[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
So it’s true that some teams are trying out first basemen at third. So the Astros have given last year’s third baseman (Johnson) a first-base glove, and last year’s first baseman (Wallace) a third-base glove. This way, they are ahead of the curve either way. Most likely, though, it will be a former middle infielder with no patience and not much power — and wheels of steal — that will lead them all. He better strike out a whole lot less or he could end up a worse version of Emilio Bonifacio.

No. 28 — Seattle Mariners
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Chone Figgins[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.242[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.305[/td][td]1[/td][td]300[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Kyle Seager[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.267[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.372[/td][td]-1[/td][td]250[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Alex Liddi[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.228[/td][td]0.292[/td][td]0.387[/td][td]-2[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Can we but “TBD
 
Positional power rankings: Third base.
Spoiler [+]
Here’s the introduction to the series from Dave Cameron, and here are some caveats: we’re doing our best to guesstimate, the WARs are approximate, there are tiers here that we will try to identify, and the season is a souffle that might rise or might not for any particular team. And yet, the result of all this might be a decent understanding of how the teams stand in comparison to the rest of the league at each position. Surely, at the very least, it will spawn some discussion.

Perhaps we should rethink the defensive spectrum! Perhaps third base is the hardest position! Last year, third baseman had a .707 OPS — worsted only by catchers… and still shortstops. But the .252/.317/.390 collective batting line at the hot corner was just barely better than the shortstops with their .263/.317/.380 ways. That’s not usual.

Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.

Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?

No. 30 — Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Josh Donaldson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.219[/td][td]0.289[/td][td]0.357[/td][td][/td][td]325[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Eric Sogard[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.321[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]150[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Adam Rosales[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.234[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]125[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Steve Parker[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.225[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.329[/td][td][/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
When Scott Sizemore went down for the season with an ACL tear, this house of cards came tumbling down. What’s left is a converted catcher (Donaldson), two possible utility players and/or backup infielders (Sogard and Rosales), and a meh prospect (Parker). If they went through the entire year with these players, there’s a distinct possibility that they manage to put up zero wins collectively. Of course, the rumor is that the team is already looking for a trade, but since that trade might be with #28 on this list, it may not lead to a much better result from the position. Maybe one of the corner outfielders / first basemen / designated hitters can fake it at third for a year? That would fit in with some of the other teams on this list.

No. 29 — Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Jimmy Paredes[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.376[/td][td]-3[/td][td]400[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.258[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.403[/td][td][/td][td]200[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.403[/td][td]-6[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
So it’s true that some teams are trying out first basemen at third. So the Astros have given last year’s third baseman (Johnson) a first-base glove, and last year’s first baseman (Wallace) a third-base glove. This way, they are ahead of the curve either way. Most likely, though, it will be a former middle infielder with no patience and not much power — and wheels of steal — that will lead them all. He better strike out a whole lot less or he could end up a worse version of Emilio Bonifacio.

No. 28 — Seattle Mariners
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Chone Figgins[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.242[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.305[/td][td]1[/td][td]300[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Kyle Seager[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.267[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.372[/td][td]-1[/td][td]250[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Alex Liddi[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.228[/td][td]0.292[/td][td]0.387[/td][td]-2[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Can we but “TBD
 
Top 15 prospects: St. Louis Cardinals.
Spoiler [+]
The depth within the minor league system is still not where it needs to be for the organization to be considered among the best in baseball. However the club has infused some exciting talent into the mix in recent years. The Cardinals minor league system is definitely one to watch in the years ahead as it boasts some high-ceiling talent and a plethora of hard-throwing relief arms.

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
BORN: Oct. 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

One of the top arms available in the 2009 draft, the hard-throwing Texan can fire his heat up into the mid-to-high 90s and it has excellent movement. Miller’s fastball is so effective that he has to be encouraged to use his secondary pitches, both of which show flashes of brilliance: a curveball and changeup. Although they have potential, Miller needs to command them better. His plus velocity allows him to safely work in the upper half of the strike zone but it would be nice to see the fly-ball pitcher generate a few more ground-ball outs. After splitting 2011 between high-A and double-A, the right-hander should move up to triple-A where he’ll face a stiff challenge by facing an increased number of strong fastball hitters. Miller has the ceiling of a No. 1 starter and he could be pitching in St. Louis by the end of the ’12 season.

2. Oscar Taveras, OF
BORN: June 19, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 9th

I was one of only two prospect analysts among The Big 5 (FanGraphs, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels) to rank Taveras among the Cardinals’ Top 10 prospects prior to 2011, so it was exciting to see him continue to develop as hoped last year. Taveras generates good power that could eventually lead to 20+ home runs at the big league level, but he also has the ability to hit for average. He led the Midwest League with a .386 batting average in 2011 (thanks in part to a .440 BABIP). Taveras has a knack for making good contact and he struck out just 15% of the time, while also showing improved patience (9.2 BB%). He’s still rough defensively but could develop into an average right-fielder. After posting a wRC+ of 187 in low-A ball as a 19 year old (and also hitting above .300 in the Arizona Fall League), he could make quick work of high-A and see double-A by mid-season.

3. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
BORN: July 20, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th

Jenkins is my pick for breakout Cardinals prospect for 2012. His fastball already sits in the low 90s and touches 95-96 mph but there could be more velocity there if he can fill out his slender frame even more. The organization made some tweaks to his delivery upon turning pro and he’s still getting comfortable with it. He’s also switched from throwing a slider to a curveball so look for his strikeout rates to increase as he begins to master the pitch (He already shows a good feel for it). His third pitch is a developing changeup. Jenkins will pitch half the 2012 season as a teenager and should spend it at the low-A level.

4. Carlos Martinez, RHP
BORN: Sept. 21, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th

Martinez, 20, generates outstanding velocity from his 6′ tall frame. His fastball regularly touches 100 mph and sits in the mid-90s. His fastball generated a ton of ground balls in 2011 while he was pitching in low-A ball but his fly-ball rate increased significantly when he moved up to high-A ball because he struggled to command the pitch. His repertoire is rounded out by a curveball and changeup but both need significant work to become go-to pitches. Martinez has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter but he could end up as a high-leverage reliever if his secondary pitches don’t come around. He should return to high-A ball to begin the 2012 season.

5. Zack Cox, 3B
BORN: May 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, University of Arkansas
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd

The Cardinals’ first pick of the 2010 draft, Cox was considered one of the top pure hitters available. He proved that by hitting more than .300 and reaching double-A in his first full pro season. Although he should hit a stout .280-.300 as a big leaguer, there are questions about his power potential. His isolated power rate was just .139 after his promotion to double-A but he does show solid gap power and that could improve as he gains experience and learns better pitch selection. There are also questions about Cox’s ability to remain at third base due to modest range and so-so foot work. Some have suggested a move to second base but he’s not the most agile. A corner outfield spot might make more sense, although range could become an issue again. The former first rounder could receive an opening day assignment to triple-A and will soon be breathing down the neck of incumbent third baseman David Freese.

6. Kolten Wong, 2B
BORN: Oct. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, University of Hawaii
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Although he stands just 5’9
 
Top 15 prospects: St. Louis Cardinals.
Spoiler [+]
The depth within the minor league system is still not where it needs to be for the organization to be considered among the best in baseball. However the club has infused some exciting talent into the mix in recent years. The Cardinals minor league system is definitely one to watch in the years ahead as it boasts some high-ceiling talent and a plethora of hard-throwing relief arms.

1. Shelby Miller, RHP
BORN: Oct. 19, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st

One of the top arms available in the 2009 draft, the hard-throwing Texan can fire his heat up into the mid-to-high 90s and it has excellent movement. Miller’s fastball is so effective that he has to be encouraged to use his secondary pitches, both of which show flashes of brilliance: a curveball and changeup. Although they have potential, Miller needs to command them better. His plus velocity allows him to safely work in the upper half of the strike zone but it would be nice to see the fly-ball pitcher generate a few more ground-ball outs. After splitting 2011 between high-A and double-A, the right-hander should move up to triple-A where he’ll face a stiff challenge by facing an increased number of strong fastball hitters. Miller has the ceiling of a No. 1 starter and he could be pitching in St. Louis by the end of the ’12 season.

2. Oscar Taveras, OF
BORN: June 19, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 9th

I was one of only two prospect analysts among The Big 5 (FanGraphs, Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels) to rank Taveras among the Cardinals’ Top 10 prospects prior to 2011, so it was exciting to see him continue to develop as hoped last year. Taveras generates good power that could eventually lead to 20+ home runs at the big league level, but he also has the ability to hit for average. He led the Midwest League with a .386 batting average in 2011 (thanks in part to a .440 BABIP). Taveras has a knack for making good contact and he struck out just 15% of the time, while also showing improved patience (9.2 BB%). He’s still rough defensively but could develop into an average right-fielder. After posting a wRC+ of 187 in low-A ball as a 19 year old (and also hitting above .300 in the Arizona Fall League), he could make quick work of high-A and see double-A by mid-season.

3. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
BORN: July 20, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th

Jenkins is my pick for breakout Cardinals prospect for 2012. His fastball already sits in the low 90s and touches 95-96 mph but there could be more velocity there if he can fill out his slender frame even more. The organization made some tweaks to his delivery upon turning pro and he’s still getting comfortable with it. He’s also switched from throwing a slider to a curveball so look for his strikeout rates to increase as he begins to master the pitch (He already shows a good feel for it). His third pitch is a developing changeup. Jenkins will pitch half the 2012 season as a teenager and should spend it at the low-A level.

4. Carlos Martinez, RHP
BORN: Sept. 21, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th

Martinez, 20, generates outstanding velocity from his 6′ tall frame. His fastball regularly touches 100 mph and sits in the mid-90s. His fastball generated a ton of ground balls in 2011 while he was pitching in low-A ball but his fly-ball rate increased significantly when he moved up to high-A ball because he struggled to command the pitch. His repertoire is rounded out by a curveball and changeup but both need significant work to become go-to pitches. Martinez has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter but he could end up as a high-leverage reliever if his secondary pitches don’t come around. He should return to high-A ball to begin the 2012 season.

5. Zack Cox, 3B
BORN: May 9, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, University of Arkansas
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd

The Cardinals’ first pick of the 2010 draft, Cox was considered one of the top pure hitters available. He proved that by hitting more than .300 and reaching double-A in his first full pro season. Although he should hit a stout .280-.300 as a big leaguer, there are questions about his power potential. His isolated power rate was just .139 after his promotion to double-A but he does show solid gap power and that could improve as he gains experience and learns better pitch selection. There are also questions about Cox’s ability to remain at third base due to modest range and so-so foot work. Some have suggested a move to second base but he’s not the most agile. A corner outfield spot might make more sense, although range could become an issue again. The former first rounder could receive an opening day assignment to triple-A and will soon be breathing down the neck of incumbent third baseman David Freese.

6. Kolten Wong, 2B
BORN: Oct. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, University of Hawaii
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Although he stands just 5’9
 
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