2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

Status
Not open for further replies.
Mr. Sabermetrics, Brandon McCarthy. 
smokin.gif


82 pitches in 7.0 innings, 6 hits (five singles and a solo homer), 1 run, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts. 12 groundouts to two flyouts.
 
Mr. Sabermetrics, Brandon McCarthy. 
smokin.gif


82 pitches in 7.0 innings, 6 hits (five singles and a solo homer), 1 run, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts. 12 groundouts to two flyouts.
 
Milwaukee locks up Lucroy.

Spoiler [+]
The Brewers added another to their list of core players under long-term contracts, inking catcher Jonathan Lucroy to a four or five year deal Monday. Lucroy, who broke through to the majors in 2010 and was the starter from day one in 2011, will be covered through at least his arbitration seasons and possibly his first free agent year.

Although Lucroy hit well for a catcher last season at .265/.313/.391 (94 wRC+), he hasn’t developed into the hitter he showed he could be in the minor leagues. Between rookie ball, both levels of A-ball and Double-A, Lucroy posted wRC+ totals above 125 in every one of his minor league stints, showcasing solid contact rates and patience. The patience has left him in the majors, as he’s walked in just 6.2% of his major league plate appearances. His free-swinging ways partially resulted in his 21.2% strikeout rate as well, nearly five percentage points above his previous high at any level.

But any extra offensive production from Lucroy will be gravy at this point. His glovework provides immense value to the Brewers’ pitching staff. According to Mike Fast’s seminal work on catchers framing pitches, only Jose Molina betters Lucroy on a per-game basis. Lucroy’s ability to get umpires to call strikes saves 24 runs per 120 games – similar to the impact of an All-Star level bat.

The Brewers may be able to get similar or better value on Lucroy going year-to-year with his arbitration years, but the monetary risk is minimal here and the Brewers really need some cost certainty with the rest of their core progressing up the payroll ladder yearly. Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Aramis Ramirez, and Corey Hart will all see raises soon, and the Brewers need to lock in some cheap pieces to be able to maintain this core throughout the next few years.

Jonathan Lucroy isn’t a key part of the Brewers’ core just yet, but he provides some value at the plate and heaps of value behind it. Although we don’t know the exact financial details, it’s hard to imagine this deal breaking the bank – think a bit more expensive than Salvador Perez’s $7 million deal, but not exorbitantly so. As a cost-controlled player over the next five years who can help balance the monetary loads of the Brewers’ stars, he and his contract could be very important in keeping the Brewers competitive over the next half-decade.

Blue Jays extend McGowan.

Spoiler [+]
The Toronto Blue Jays have faith in Dustin McGowan. Even though he’s only pitched 21 innings in the majors since 2008, the Jays this week rewarded the 30-year-old with a three-year, $4.1 million contract. With his new deal, McGowan will still make $600,000 this season before receiving $1.5 million in 2013 and an additional $1.5 million in 2014. If all goes well, Toronto can exercise a $4 million option in 2015, or buy out the right-hander for $500,000. While the financial commitment to McGowan is minimal, the Blue Jays’ decision to extend a pitcher with such a lengthy injury history is puzzling.

Multiple arm injuries may have ruined McGowan’s once-promising career. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2004, McGowan has dealt with a number of serious shoulder issues for the past several years. Between 2008 and 2011, he had two shoulder surgeries — plus a knee surgery. He didn’t pitch a single inning during that period.

While the odds weren’t in his favor, McGowan returned to the majors last season. Predictably, he struggled. Though McGowan still managed a 20.8 K% in his 21 innings, he walked 13.5% of his batters. His posted a ghastly 6.43 ERA, and his 5.60 FIP and 4.38 xFIP weren’t much better. You have to figure that a full, healthy off-season will give McGowan a good chance to improve his 2011 stats. But the problem is that there’s no way to know (yet) if his previous injuries sapped him of his effectiveness.

Shoulder problems are the most devastating injury a pitcher can sustain. Some pitchers — like Brien Taylor — never fully recover from shoulder surgeries. Others — like Rich Harden — never regain their velocity or their effectiveness. While McGowan made it back from his injuries, his velocity dropped last season. After consistently averaging 94 mph with his fastball in 2007 and 2008, McGowan’s average fastball velocity fell to 92.9 mph last season. That’s still decent, but it’s unclear if the difference will limit him.

And even if McGowan returns to form, there’s no telling how long he’ll stay healthy. That’s why — despite the low cost — this deal is a risky one for Toronto. Guaranteeing an injury prone pitcher $4.1 million isn’t typically a good idea — especially considering McGowan’s already dealt with a foot injury this spring. It’s not a serious injury, but it’s not encouraging when you consider his past.

If McGowan can remain a starter — and if he stays healthy — there’s a chance he’ll live up to this new contract. If he fails to make the major-league rotation out of Spring Training, the Blue Jays might be better off putting him in the AAA rotation. While McGowan’s stuff would probably play well out of the bullpen, it’s hard to imagine him pitching back-to-back days consistently. It would also be tougher for McGowan to live up to his contract since he would be pitching less often.

It’s tough to imagine McGowan returning to full strength or staying healthy for the length of his new extension. In all fairness, the Blue Jays have the most information about his health and have watched him closely this spring. If McGowan is healthy — and he can remain that way — this contract will be an easy win for Toronto.

Still, there’s no telling whether McGowan can pitch a full season. Sure, if he falters, the Blue Jays won’t be out a whole lot of money. But there was really no reason for Toronto to hand out this kind of extension to such a risky player.

2012 Organizational Rankings: #27 - Pittsburgh Pirates.

Spoiler [+]
Pittsburgh’s 2011 Ranking: 28th

2012 Outlook — 37 (25th)

How can a 72-win season possibly represent progress? It helps for the franchise in question to be coming off a coming off a 57-win debacle the season before. And it helps for the franchise in question to be coming off four straight last-place finishes. And it helps for the franchise in question to entering its 19th consecutive season without a playoff appearance.

But there was something undeniably striking about what happened in Pittsburgh in the first half of the 2011 season. The Pirates actually contended through May, and then June. And then then they actually held the division lead for two days in July. It was the first season since 2002 in which the Pirates held a division lead after April 10th. It was kind of a big deal, mostly because the city of Pittsburgh took note. People — large groups of them, even — started to care about Pirates baseball again, and that can be the most important step on a fallen franchise’s trail back to relevance.

Still, the trail the Pirates face is a long one. The clear franchise-quality player is on hand in Andrew McCutchen, and the Pirates have two solid young position players establishing themselves in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. Joel Hanrahan was a deserving All-Star last season from the closer position. After that, however, it gets dicey.

This season will be key for Pedro Alvarez, who needs to figure out his position and his bat this year. Last season’s brutal .191/.272/.289 showing was among the league’s biggest disappointments. There is still very little to be excited about in the starting rotation — A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard will make things better than last year, but neither can call themselves an ace nor can they promise much in terms of innings. The rest of the rotation — Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens and Kevin Correia — was a majority of the group which achieved just a 112 ERA- and an NL-worst 116 FIP-. The team will need some major steps forward from its younger players — like McDonald, Morton and Alex Presley — if they are to make a significant push beyond last year’s effort.

2013+ Outlook: 50 (T-15th)

With McCutchen locked into a six-year $51.5 million deal, the Pirates have a star player at a very reasonable price who can serve as the core for the next truly competitive team out of Pittsburgh. The question is where they find the next one or two similar players needed to crack through the top of the NL Central. Ideally, one or both of Jose Tabata (already signed through 2016 with club options through 2019) or Pedro Alvarez (under club control through 2014) can step up and assume that role.

The Pirates will need more. The most significant pieces to build around McCutchen and company will most likely come from the previous two drafts. The Pirates’ top four prospects — Gerrit Cole, Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon and Tony Sanchez — all come from the 2009-2011 drafts, and six of the overall top 10 come from the past two years of drafts. Cole and Sanchez in particular have the potential to make the quickest impacts and Cole can equal (and possibly surpass) McCutchen in terms of impact on the franchise. The Pirates will need to continue drafting well, but their top picks from each of the last two drafts have the potential to form the lasting core they’ll need if they want to become consistent contenders.

Financial Resources: 35 (28th)

The last time the Pirates were above a $50 million payroll was in 2003. Adjusting for inflation, the $54 million the Pirates spent in 2003 is worth just under $68 million today. Since then, the Pirates have gone through a vicious cycle, trotting out terrible teams in front of tiny crowds (at one of the best stadiums in the league, no less), bringing only the same small diehard group back on a yearly basis to watch another similarly awful team. The seemingly unbreakable circle of life for a bad baseball team.

The excellent first three-and-a-half months of the 2011 season brought the highest attendance totals PNC Park has seen since opening in 2001, as over 1.9 million fans pushed the turnstiles. Still, the Pirates ranked 15th in the National League in attendance, beating only the Marlins — the same Marlins who closed the upper deck of their park before the Pirates had even dropped out of the playoff race. Forbes ranks the Pirates as the 28th most valuable franchise. As such, although the Pirates can probably pick up spending should the scenario call for it, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which they break the bank anytime soon.

Baseball Operations: 46 (T-20th)

Neal Huntington has executed a pretty simple plan over the past few years: trade veterans for young players with loads of service time. Find talented players through this relatively cheap avenue of talent acquisition and hope they can be enough to supplement your early draft picks and put together a winning team. In the time leading up to the 2009 trade deadline, for example, Huntington turned players with 28 years of combined team control into a group with a whopping 95 years worth remaining.

The problem? Huntington just isn’t hitting on nearly enough of his darts. Let’s take a look at the list of players who comprise those 95 hypothetical years:
Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Gorkys Hernandez, Lastings Milledge, Joel Hanrahan, Eric Fryer, Casey Erickson, Argenis Diaz, Hunter Strickland, Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, Tim Alderson, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison
Click to expand...

And this is what they’ve done for the Pirates since:
[table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]ERA[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]xFIP[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]171.2[/td][td]5.77[/td][td]4.04[/td][td]0.31[/td][td]3.83[/td][td]3.77[/td][td]4.08[/td][td]2.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]79.2[/td][td]6.67[/td][td]2.94[/td][td]1.69[/td][td]7.57[/td][td]5.29[/td][td]4.11[/td][td]-0.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Joel Hanrahan[/td][td]69.2[/td][td]12.92[/td][td]3.36[/td][td]0.78[/td][td]3.62[/td][td]2.62[/td][td]2.64[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Joel Hanrahan[/td][td]68.2[/td][td]8[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]0.13[/td][td]1.83[/td][td]2.18[/td][td]2.98[/td][td]2[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]AVG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][th=""]wRC+[/th][th=""]Fld[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Ronny Cedeno[/td][td]502[/td][td]0.256[/td][td]0.293[/td][td]0.382[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]81[/td][td]-3.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Ronny Cedeno[/td][td]454[/td][td]0.249[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]0.339[/td][td]0.271[/td][td]67[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Lastings Milledge[/td][td]412[/td][td]0.277[/td][td]0.332[/td][td]0.38[/td][td]0.314[/td][td]93[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Josh Harrison[/td][td]204[/td][td]0.272[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.374[/td][td]0.287[/td][td]79[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Jeff Clement[/td][td]154[/td][td]0.201[/td][td]0.237[/td][td]0.368[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]53[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]-0.1[/td][/tr][/table]
Huntington has his finds. Hanrahan and Morton have been solid. Jose Tabata looks like a coup from the Yankees for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel remains a feather in his cap despite McDonald’s down 2011 season. But until the process starts producing more major league regulars, it’s tough to give Huntington high ranks for turning mediocre players into mediocre players who make slightly less money.

Overall: 39 (27th)

To deny that the Pittsburgh Pirates are closer to a playoff berth now than they were even one year ago would be foolish. How far they still find themselves from the light at the end of the tunnel just goes to show the deep hole the last two decades of incompetence has put them in. There just isn’t enough elite or even above-average major league talent currently on hand for this team to make a true 162-game push towards the playoffs yet. Much of the talent that can help with that push is young and in the early stages of development. Finally, it remains to be seen whether the Pirates have the resources or the wherewithal to bring in the support characters from outside the organization that will be necessary once the prospects start to reach their potential.

Still, the Pirates are pushing forward. For all the questions about how quick that push is and whether it will ultimately be enough to break their playoff drought — very legitimate questions at that — Pittsburgh can at least take solace in a move in the proper direction.


Red Sox do the smart thing, option Iglesias.

Spoiler [+]
This morning, the Boston Red Sox optioned Jose Iglesias to Triple-A. Given that he hit .235/.285/.269 in 387 plate appearances during his time in Pawtucket last year, this seems like a pretty obvious decision. While Iglesias has defensive skills that suggest he can have value even if he doesn’t ever develop into much of a hitter, there’s still a level of minimally acceptable offensive performance to make the big leagues, and it’s not clear that Iglesias currently crosses that level.

Even if we accept that Iglesias is a better hitter than his numbers last year indicate, ZIPS still projects him for just a .268 wOBA as a big leaguer this year, or about the same level of production provided by Alex Rios and Adam Dunn in 2011. Even if he was the best defensive shortstop in the game right now, that level of offense would mean he’d still top out as about a +2 win player. The upside for this skillset is basically Alcides Escobar, who posted a .282 wOBA and +10 UZR last year, and was worth +2.2 WAR in 598 PA. In reality, we’re dealing with a hitter who would need to improve significantly to get to a .282 wOBA, and projecting him as a +10 defender as a rookie is extremely aggressive.

If the Red Sox had no alternatives, Iglesias’ defensive value means that he probably wouldn’t kill them, but they do have alternatives – the perfectly useful tandem of Mike Aviles (.311 wOBA by ZIPS) and Nick Punto (.300 wOBA by ZIPS). It’s being reported that Aviles is going to be the starter, but in reality, we’re probably going to see the two share playing time, considering that they’re perfect complements for each other. Punto is a left-handed defensive specialist, while Aviles bats from the right side and is more of an offensive threat. Even if Aviles gets most of the starts, Punto can spell him as a defensive replacement and start on days that the Sox put GB starters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz on the mound.

During Aviles’ career, he’s been worth +2.5 WAR per 600 PA, while Punto has racked up +2.6 WAR per 600 PA during his time in the big leagues. While it’s reasonable to think that the 34-year-old Punto and 31-year-old Aviles might both be on the down side of their career, a job share between the two should project for between +1.5 and +2.5 WAR on the season, and let the team maximize their individual strengths based on the days match-ups.

In other words, if you think Iglesias is an elite defender right now, and will hit better in the Majors this year than he did in the minors last year, then he’d be about as good as a Punto/Aviles platoon with little upside beyond that.

Despite the mini media storm surrounding this decision, this really was a pretty easy call. Iglesias can hang out in Triple-A and work on improving his offensive performance while the Red Sox get similar or better production from the two useful veterans they already had in camp. If either gets hurt or performs poorly, Iglesias will be considered for a call-up, just like every other not-quite-ready-for-prime-time prospect in the sport.

In the end, this whole thing just seems like a manufactured story. The Red Sox have two guys on the roster capable of providing value at shortstop, and a shortstop prospect who probably can’t hit enough to justify a spot on the roster. That the kid got sent down shouldn’t really qualify as news.

2012 Organizational Rankings: #26 - San Diego Padres.

Spoiler [+]
San Diego’s 2011 Ranking: #20

2012 Outlook: – 38 (23rd)

The needle for San Diego Padres is pointing up, but that may not be saying too much. Suffice it to admit: 2012 might be pretty brutal for the Padres. Barring some breakthough, corner-turning performances, the team could be headed for another 60- to 70-win season.

The starting pitching staff ranked last in our positional rankings, their right field ranked No. 29, first base No. 29, and second base No. 25. The only real bright spots on this team, for the time being, are 3B Chase Headley, CF Cameron Maybin, and arguably SP Cory Luebke (age 27) and 1B Yonder Alonso (age 25).

Could this team surprise us in 2012? Yes. Could they move up the rankings significantly in 2013? Sure. Would I bet my favorite baseball cap on the matter? … Probably not.

With a surprise showing from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who jumped from 5th to 1st last year, the NL West was won with 94 wins. The Padres amassed 71 wins — with SP Mat Latos and SP Aaron Harang still on the roster. Their departure means the Padres need to vacuum up some 365 extra innings with an uninspiring rotation.

But the division is not as top-heavy as the NL East or NL Central, and the Diamondbacks may not have quite enough depth to repeat their 94-win season, but 90+ wins should be within reach for Arizona, so a Padres playoff season probably needs to approach that threshold — or pray for the second Wild Card to slip away from the NL East.

2013+ Outlook: 54 (11th)

The Padres have five prospects in Marc Hulet’s Top MLB 100 Prospects list, most notably the aforementioned 1B Yonder Alonso (No. 39) and the unaforementioned C Yasmani Grandal (No. 40). All told, the team earned Hulet’s top Minor League Systems Rank with a franchise rich in both pitching and position prospects.

Keith Law’s rankings were a bit more bearish than bullish equally strong, as he slotted the Padres at h<a href=/insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7547640/san-diego-padres-best-farm-system-baseball-mlb">http://insider.espn.go.co...farm-system-baseball-mlb">No. 1, saying, “Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system, but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they’re ahead of everyone else.
 
Milwaukee locks up Lucroy.

Spoiler [+]
The Brewers added another to their list of core players under long-term contracts, inking catcher Jonathan Lucroy to a four or five year deal Monday. Lucroy, who broke through to the majors in 2010 and was the starter from day one in 2011, will be covered through at least his arbitration seasons and possibly his first free agent year.

Although Lucroy hit well for a catcher last season at .265/.313/.391 (94 wRC+), he hasn’t developed into the hitter he showed he could be in the minor leagues. Between rookie ball, both levels of A-ball and Double-A, Lucroy posted wRC+ totals above 125 in every one of his minor league stints, showcasing solid contact rates and patience. The patience has left him in the majors, as he’s walked in just 6.2% of his major league plate appearances. His free-swinging ways partially resulted in his 21.2% strikeout rate as well, nearly five percentage points above his previous high at any level.

But any extra offensive production from Lucroy will be gravy at this point. His glovework provides immense value to the Brewers’ pitching staff. According to Mike Fast’s seminal work on catchers framing pitches, only Jose Molina betters Lucroy on a per-game basis. Lucroy’s ability to get umpires to call strikes saves 24 runs per 120 games – similar to the impact of an All-Star level bat.

The Brewers may be able to get similar or better value on Lucroy going year-to-year with his arbitration years, but the monetary risk is minimal here and the Brewers really need some cost certainty with the rest of their core progressing up the payroll ladder yearly. Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Aramis Ramirez, and Corey Hart will all see raises soon, and the Brewers need to lock in some cheap pieces to be able to maintain this core throughout the next few years.

Jonathan Lucroy isn’t a key part of the Brewers’ core just yet, but he provides some value at the plate and heaps of value behind it. Although we don’t know the exact financial details, it’s hard to imagine this deal breaking the bank – think a bit more expensive than Salvador Perez’s $7 million deal, but not exorbitantly so. As a cost-controlled player over the next five years who can help balance the monetary loads of the Brewers’ stars, he and his contract could be very important in keeping the Brewers competitive over the next half-decade.

Blue Jays extend McGowan.

Spoiler [+]
The Toronto Blue Jays have faith in Dustin McGowan. Even though he’s only pitched 21 innings in the majors since 2008, the Jays this week rewarded the 30-year-old with a three-year, $4.1 million contract. With his new deal, McGowan will still make $600,000 this season before receiving $1.5 million in 2013 and an additional $1.5 million in 2014. If all goes well, Toronto can exercise a $4 million option in 2015, or buy out the right-hander for $500,000. While the financial commitment to McGowan is minimal, the Blue Jays’ decision to extend a pitcher with such a lengthy injury history is puzzling.

Multiple arm injuries may have ruined McGowan’s once-promising career. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2004, McGowan has dealt with a number of serious shoulder issues for the past several years. Between 2008 and 2011, he had two shoulder surgeries — plus a knee surgery. He didn’t pitch a single inning during that period.

While the odds weren’t in his favor, McGowan returned to the majors last season. Predictably, he struggled. Though McGowan still managed a 20.8 K% in his 21 innings, he walked 13.5% of his batters. His posted a ghastly 6.43 ERA, and his 5.60 FIP and 4.38 xFIP weren’t much better. You have to figure that a full, healthy off-season will give McGowan a good chance to improve his 2011 stats. But the problem is that there’s no way to know (yet) if his previous injuries sapped him of his effectiveness.

Shoulder problems are the most devastating injury a pitcher can sustain. Some pitchers — like Brien Taylor — never fully recover from shoulder surgeries. Others — like Rich Harden — never regain their velocity or their effectiveness. While McGowan made it back from his injuries, his velocity dropped last season. After consistently averaging 94 mph with his fastball in 2007 and 2008, McGowan’s average fastball velocity fell to 92.9 mph last season. That’s still decent, but it’s unclear if the difference will limit him.

And even if McGowan returns to form, there’s no telling how long he’ll stay healthy. That’s why — despite the low cost — this deal is a risky one for Toronto. Guaranteeing an injury prone pitcher $4.1 million isn’t typically a good idea — especially considering McGowan’s already dealt with a foot injury this spring. It’s not a serious injury, but it’s not encouraging when you consider his past.

If McGowan can remain a starter — and if he stays healthy — there’s a chance he’ll live up to this new contract. If he fails to make the major-league rotation out of Spring Training, the Blue Jays might be better off putting him in the AAA rotation. While McGowan’s stuff would probably play well out of the bullpen, it’s hard to imagine him pitching back-to-back days consistently. It would also be tougher for McGowan to live up to his contract since he would be pitching less often.

It’s tough to imagine McGowan returning to full strength or staying healthy for the length of his new extension. In all fairness, the Blue Jays have the most information about his health and have watched him closely this spring. If McGowan is healthy — and he can remain that way — this contract will be an easy win for Toronto.

Still, there’s no telling whether McGowan can pitch a full season. Sure, if he falters, the Blue Jays won’t be out a whole lot of money. But there was really no reason for Toronto to hand out this kind of extension to such a risky player.

2012 Organizational Rankings: #27 - Pittsburgh Pirates.

Spoiler [+]
Pittsburgh’s 2011 Ranking: 28th

2012 Outlook — 37 (25th)

How can a 72-win season possibly represent progress? It helps for the franchise in question to be coming off a coming off a 57-win debacle the season before. And it helps for the franchise in question to be coming off four straight last-place finishes. And it helps for the franchise in question to entering its 19th consecutive season without a playoff appearance.

But there was something undeniably striking about what happened in Pittsburgh in the first half of the 2011 season. The Pirates actually contended through May, and then June. And then then they actually held the division lead for two days in July. It was the first season since 2002 in which the Pirates held a division lead after April 10th. It was kind of a big deal, mostly because the city of Pittsburgh took note. People — large groups of them, even — started to care about Pirates baseball again, and that can be the most important step on a fallen franchise’s trail back to relevance.

Still, the trail the Pirates face is a long one. The clear franchise-quality player is on hand in Andrew McCutchen, and the Pirates have two solid young position players establishing themselves in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. Joel Hanrahan was a deserving All-Star last season from the closer position. After that, however, it gets dicey.

This season will be key for Pedro Alvarez, who needs to figure out his position and his bat this year. Last season’s brutal .191/.272/.289 showing was among the league’s biggest disappointments. There is still very little to be excited about in the starting rotation — A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard will make things better than last year, but neither can call themselves an ace nor can they promise much in terms of innings. The rest of the rotation — Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens and Kevin Correia — was a majority of the group which achieved just a 112 ERA- and an NL-worst 116 FIP-. The team will need some major steps forward from its younger players — like McDonald, Morton and Alex Presley — if they are to make a significant push beyond last year’s effort.

2013+ Outlook: 50 (T-15th)

With McCutchen locked into a six-year $51.5 million deal, the Pirates have a star player at a very reasonable price who can serve as the core for the next truly competitive team out of Pittsburgh. The question is where they find the next one or two similar players needed to crack through the top of the NL Central. Ideally, one or both of Jose Tabata (already signed through 2016 with club options through 2019) or Pedro Alvarez (under club control through 2014) can step up and assume that role.

The Pirates will need more. The most significant pieces to build around McCutchen and company will most likely come from the previous two drafts. The Pirates’ top four prospects — Gerrit Cole, Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon and Tony Sanchez — all come from the 2009-2011 drafts, and six of the overall top 10 come from the past two years of drafts. Cole and Sanchez in particular have the potential to make the quickest impacts and Cole can equal (and possibly surpass) McCutchen in terms of impact on the franchise. The Pirates will need to continue drafting well, but their top picks from each of the last two drafts have the potential to form the lasting core they’ll need if they want to become consistent contenders.

Financial Resources: 35 (28th)

The last time the Pirates were above a $50 million payroll was in 2003. Adjusting for inflation, the $54 million the Pirates spent in 2003 is worth just under $68 million today. Since then, the Pirates have gone through a vicious cycle, trotting out terrible teams in front of tiny crowds (at one of the best stadiums in the league, no less), bringing only the same small diehard group back on a yearly basis to watch another similarly awful team. The seemingly unbreakable circle of life for a bad baseball team.

The excellent first three-and-a-half months of the 2011 season brought the highest attendance totals PNC Park has seen since opening in 2001, as over 1.9 million fans pushed the turnstiles. Still, the Pirates ranked 15th in the National League in attendance, beating only the Marlins — the same Marlins who closed the upper deck of their park before the Pirates had even dropped out of the playoff race. Forbes ranks the Pirates as the 28th most valuable franchise. As such, although the Pirates can probably pick up spending should the scenario call for it, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which they break the bank anytime soon.

Baseball Operations: 46 (T-20th)

Neal Huntington has executed a pretty simple plan over the past few years: trade veterans for young players with loads of service time. Find talented players through this relatively cheap avenue of talent acquisition and hope they can be enough to supplement your early draft picks and put together a winning team. In the time leading up to the 2009 trade deadline, for example, Huntington turned players with 28 years of combined team control into a group with a whopping 95 years worth remaining.

The problem? Huntington just isn’t hitting on nearly enough of his darts. Let’s take a look at the list of players who comprise those 95 hypothetical years:
Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Gorkys Hernandez, Lastings Milledge, Joel Hanrahan, Eric Fryer, Casey Erickson, Argenis Diaz, Hunter Strickland, Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, Tim Alderson, Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison
Click to expand...

And this is what they’ve done for the Pirates since:
[table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]ERA[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]xFIP[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]171.2[/td][td]5.77[/td][td]4.04[/td][td]0.31[/td][td]3.83[/td][td]3.77[/td][td]4.08[/td][td]2.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]79.2[/td][td]6.67[/td][td]2.94[/td][td]1.69[/td][td]7.57[/td][td]5.29[/td][td]4.11[/td][td]-0.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Joel Hanrahan[/td][td]69.2[/td][td]12.92[/td][td]3.36[/td][td]0.78[/td][td]3.62[/td][td]2.62[/td][td]2.64[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Joel Hanrahan[/td][td]68.2[/td][td]8[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]0.13[/td][td]1.83[/td][td]2.18[/td][td]2.98[/td][td]2[/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]AVG[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][th=""]wRC+[/th][th=""]Fld[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Ronny Cedeno[/td][td]502[/td][td]0.256[/td][td]0.293[/td][td]0.382[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]81[/td][td]-3.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Ronny Cedeno[/td][td]454[/td][td]0.249[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]0.339[/td][td]0.271[/td][td]67[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Lastings Milledge[/td][td]412[/td][td]0.277[/td][td]0.332[/td][td]0.38[/td][td]0.314[/td][td]93[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Josh Harrison[/td][td]204[/td][td]0.272[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.374[/td][td]0.287[/td][td]79[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Jeff Clement[/td][td]154[/td][td]0.201[/td][td]0.237[/td][td]0.368[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]53[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]-0.1[/td][/tr][/table]
Huntington has his finds. Hanrahan and Morton have been solid. Jose Tabata looks like a coup from the Yankees for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel remains a feather in his cap despite McDonald’s down 2011 season. But until the process starts producing more major league regulars, it’s tough to give Huntington high ranks for turning mediocre players into mediocre players who make slightly less money.

Overall: 39 (27th)

To deny that the Pittsburgh Pirates are closer to a playoff berth now than they were even one year ago would be foolish. How far they still find themselves from the light at the end of the tunnel just goes to show the deep hole the last two decades of incompetence has put them in. There just isn’t enough elite or even above-average major league talent currently on hand for this team to make a true 162-game push towards the playoffs yet. Much of the talent that can help with that push is young and in the early stages of development. Finally, it remains to be seen whether the Pirates have the resources or the wherewithal to bring in the support characters from outside the organization that will be necessary once the prospects start to reach their potential.

Still, the Pirates are pushing forward. For all the questions about how quick that push is and whether it will ultimately be enough to break their playoff drought — very legitimate questions at that — Pittsburgh can at least take solace in a move in the proper direction.


Red Sox do the smart thing, option Iglesias.

Spoiler [+]
This morning, the Boston Red Sox optioned Jose Iglesias to Triple-A. Given that he hit .235/.285/.269 in 387 plate appearances during his time in Pawtucket last year, this seems like a pretty obvious decision. While Iglesias has defensive skills that suggest he can have value even if he doesn’t ever develop into much of a hitter, there’s still a level of minimally acceptable offensive performance to make the big leagues, and it’s not clear that Iglesias currently crosses that level.

Even if we accept that Iglesias is a better hitter than his numbers last year indicate, ZIPS still projects him for just a .268 wOBA as a big leaguer this year, or about the same level of production provided by Alex Rios and Adam Dunn in 2011. Even if he was the best defensive shortstop in the game right now, that level of offense would mean he’d still top out as about a +2 win player. The upside for this skillset is basically Alcides Escobar, who posted a .282 wOBA and +10 UZR last year, and was worth +2.2 WAR in 598 PA. In reality, we’re dealing with a hitter who would need to improve significantly to get to a .282 wOBA, and projecting him as a +10 defender as a rookie is extremely aggressive.

If the Red Sox had no alternatives, Iglesias’ defensive value means that he probably wouldn’t kill them, but they do have alternatives – the perfectly useful tandem of Mike Aviles (.311 wOBA by ZIPS) and Nick Punto (.300 wOBA by ZIPS). It’s being reported that Aviles is going to be the starter, but in reality, we’re probably going to see the two share playing time, considering that they’re perfect complements for each other. Punto is a left-handed defensive specialist, while Aviles bats from the right side and is more of an offensive threat. Even if Aviles gets most of the starts, Punto can spell him as a defensive replacement and start on days that the Sox put GB starters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz on the mound.

During Aviles’ career, he’s been worth +2.5 WAR per 600 PA, while Punto has racked up +2.6 WAR per 600 PA during his time in the big leagues. While it’s reasonable to think that the 34-year-old Punto and 31-year-old Aviles might both be on the down side of their career, a job share between the two should project for between +1.5 and +2.5 WAR on the season, and let the team maximize their individual strengths based on the days match-ups.

In other words, if you think Iglesias is an elite defender right now, and will hit better in the Majors this year than he did in the minors last year, then he’d be about as good as a Punto/Aviles platoon with little upside beyond that.

Despite the mini media storm surrounding this decision, this really was a pretty easy call. Iglesias can hang out in Triple-A and work on improving his offensive performance while the Red Sox get similar or better production from the two useful veterans they already had in camp. If either gets hurt or performs poorly, Iglesias will be considered for a call-up, just like every other not-quite-ready-for-prime-time prospect in the sport.

In the end, this whole thing just seems like a manufactured story. The Red Sox have two guys on the roster capable of providing value at shortstop, and a shortstop prospect who probably can’t hit enough to justify a spot on the roster. That the kid got sent down shouldn’t really qualify as news.

2012 Organizational Rankings: #26 - San Diego Padres.

Spoiler [+]
San Diego’s 2011 Ranking: #20

2012 Outlook: – 38 (23rd)

The needle for San Diego Padres is pointing up, but that may not be saying too much. Suffice it to admit: 2012 might be pretty brutal for the Padres. Barring some breakthough, corner-turning performances, the team could be headed for another 60- to 70-win season.

The starting pitching staff ranked last in our positional rankings, their right field ranked No. 29, first base No. 29, and second base No. 25. The only real bright spots on this team, for the time being, are 3B Chase Headley, CF Cameron Maybin, and arguably SP Cory Luebke (age 27) and 1B Yonder Alonso (age 25).

Could this team surprise us in 2012? Yes. Could they move up the rankings significantly in 2013? Sure. Would I bet my favorite baseball cap on the matter? … Probably not.

With a surprise showing from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who jumped from 5th to 1st last year, the NL West was won with 94 wins. The Padres amassed 71 wins — with SP Mat Latos and SP Aaron Harang still on the roster. Their departure means the Padres need to vacuum up some 365 extra innings with an uninspiring rotation.

But the division is not as top-heavy as the NL East or NL Central, and the Diamondbacks may not have quite enough depth to repeat their 94-win season, but 90+ wins should be within reach for Arizona, so a Padres playoff season probably needs to approach that threshold — or pray for the second Wild Card to slip away from the NL East.

2013+ Outlook: 54 (11th)

The Padres have five prospects in Marc Hulet’s Top MLB 100 Prospects list, most notably the aforementioned 1B Yonder Alonso (No. 39) and the unaforementioned C Yasmani Grandal (No. 40). All told, the team earned Hulet’s top Minor League Systems Rank with a franchise rich in both pitching and position prospects.

Keith Law’s rankings were a bit more bearish than bullish equally strong, as he slotted the Padres at h<a href=/insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7547640/san-diego-padres-best-farm-system-baseball-mlb">http://insider.espn.go.co...farm-system-baseball-mlb">No. 1, saying, “Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system, but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant roles in the big leagues, they’re ahead of everyone else.
 
2012 Organizational Rankings: #22 - Kansas City Royals.
Spoiler [+]
Kansas City’s 2011 Ranking: 25th

2012 Outlook: 45 (20th)

For the first time in a while, the Royals’ hitting pre-season hitting projects to be pretty good. The offense was quietly above average in 2011 (102 wRC+), and while regression is to be expected from player like Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur, one can also expect improvement from exciting young players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

The loss of Salvador Perez for a large chunk of the season will probably hurt defensively as well as offensively, but if Hosmer can start living up to his reputation in the field to go along with the strong defensive work expected from Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain, the fielding should also good on balance.

So is Kansas City ready to take a shot at Detroit in 2012?

“Anything can happen
 
2012 Organizational Rankings: #22 - Kansas City Royals.
Spoiler [+]
Kansas City’s 2011 Ranking: 25th

2012 Outlook: 45 (20th)

For the first time in a while, the Royals’ hitting pre-season hitting projects to be pretty good. The offense was quietly above average in 2011 (102 wRC+), and while regression is to be expected from player like Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur, one can also expect improvement from exciting young players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.

The loss of Salvador Perez for a large chunk of the season will probably hurt defensively as well as offensively, but if Hosmer can start living up to his reputation in the field to go along with the strong defensive work expected from Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain, the fielding should also good on balance.

So is Kansas City ready to take a shot at Detroit in 2012?

“Anything can happen
 
I am officially fan of the dodgers now just because of Magic Johnson..................

Until they play the Cardinals.............
happy.gif
happy.gif



Im usually opposed to liking 2 teams in the same league..........but ill give it a pass since the Mariners have been sooooo bad for soooo long, and KGJr is LOOOONG gone.

(Miss those days with Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner, Jr)
 
I am officially fan of the dodgers now just because of Magic Johnson..................

Until they play the Cardinals.............
happy.gif
happy.gif



Im usually opposed to liking 2 teams in the same league..........but ill give it a pass since the Mariners have been sooooo bad for soooo long, and KGJr is LOOOONG gone.

(Miss those days with Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner, Jr)
 
Pac, don't feel too bad. I was discussing baseball with a client today and he didn't consider the As/Mariners opener the "real" Opening Day for MLB. This weekend being the more emphasized and publicized games.

Good game for Cespedes, not so much Ackley or Weeks.
 
Pac, don't feel too bad. I was discussing baseball with a client today and he didn't consider the As/Mariners opener the "real" Opening Day for MLB. This weekend being the more emphasized and publicized games.

Good game for Cespedes, not so much Ackley or Weeks.
 
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32

If the Dodgers are worth 2 billion, what are the Yankees worth???

nerd.gif
Click to expand...


  Im sure its about the same amount...........While the dodgers dont win as much and dont have as high a payroll, they are EXTREMENLY popular in LA and around the country.  and the fact that everything in California and NY cost more than anywhere else in the US, these teams would probably be worth under 750 million if they were anywhere else.

Cardinals are really popular around the country also, and i think they are worth somewhere between 400-700 last time i heard
 
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32

If the Dodgers are worth 2 billion, what are the Yankees worth???

nerd.gif
Click to expand...


  Im sure its about the same amount...........While the dodgers dont win as much and dont have as high a payroll, they are EXTREMENLY popular in LA and around the country.  and the fact that everything in California and NY cost more than anywhere else in the US, these teams would probably be worth under 750 million if they were anywhere else.

Cardinals are really popular around the country also, and i think they are worth somewhere between 400-700 last time i heard
 
Originally Posted by pacmagic2002

Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32

If the Dodgers are worth 2 billion, what are the Yankees worth???

nerd.gif
Click to expand...


  Im sure its about the same amount...........
Click to expand...

Highly doubt it

Between the YES Network and the NEW Yankee Stadium I find that hard to believe
 
Originally Posted by pacmagic2002

Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32

If the Dodgers are worth 2 billion, what are the Yankees worth???

nerd.gif
Click to expand...


  Im sure its about the same amount...........
Click to expand...

Highly doubt it

Between the YES Network and the NEW Yankee Stadium I find that hard to believe
 
Originally Posted by pacmagic2002

so what you think? $4-6 billion?


and do they own their stadium? or is it a city owned park?
Click to expand...

pretty sure it's the yanks, if the dodgers are 2 billion i feel like the yanks would be 20 million...well at least 4-5 billion.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

The ultimate sneaker enthusiast community.

NikeTalk was created as a way of giving back to both the sneaker enthusiast community and to the greater global community of which we are all a part.

NikeTalk is NOT affiliated with Nike Inc. in any way, shape, or form. All opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Nike, Inc.

© 1999-2024 NikeTalk.com

Share this page

Back
Top Bottom