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Its getting ridiculous. Cain got way overpaid he's not even a career .500 pitcher good stuff but not proven.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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Its getting ridiculous. Cain got way overpaid he's not even a career .500 pitcher good stuff but not proven.
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Its getting ridiculous. Cain got way overpaid he's not even a career .500 pitcher good stuff but not proven.
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Cain has had awful luck. Pretty dumb to base that extension on his W/L. His team doesn't score runs!
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Cain has had awful luck. Pretty dumb to base that extension on his W/L. His team doesn't score runs!
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Do they even keep track of pitcher wins and losses anymore?
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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Cain isn't proven?
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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Cain isn't proven?
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Originally Posted by bbllplaya23
Cain isn't proven?Did you forget the WS run? He got paid because he deserved it. He's had at least 30 starts every year (other than his first) so he's durable. He can go up against any pitcher in this game and his record would be much better if he played on a team with a better offense. Honestly, Cain hasn't got the respect he deserves throughout his career so I'm happy for him. You can say he got a bit overpaid but I'm sure there were other teams that would give him $20 mil a year.
I'd give that size of a contract even more $ to Lincecum not to Cain.
Not that stats matter but compare Cain to Lincecum, cain isn't on the same level to get that type of money.
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Originally Posted by bbllplaya23
Cain isn't proven?Did you forget the WS run? He got paid because he deserved it. He's had at least 30 starts every year (other than his first) so he's durable. He can go up against any pitcher in this game and his record would be much better if he played on a team with a better offense. Honestly, Cain hasn't got the respect he deserves throughout his career so I'm happy for him. You can say he got a bit overpaid but I'm sure there were other teams that would give him $20 mil a year.
I'd give that size of a contract even more $ to Lincecum not to Cain.
Not that stats matter but compare Cain to Lincecum, cain isn't on the same level to get that type of money.
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dacomeup
Supporter
- 25,188
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Considering what Fielder got paid, what did y'all think Votto was going to get? I'm confused.
dacomeup
Supporter
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Considering what Fielder got paid, what did y'all think Votto was going to get? I'm confused.
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It is what it is bro.Originally Posted by JPZx
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
Weird. Twins fan. I'm more Mariners these days though.
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It is what it is bro.Originally Posted by JPZx
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
Weird. Twins fan. I'm more Mariners these days though.
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Timmy's going to get paid more money. Thats well known.Originally Posted by MFr3shM
Originally Posted by bbllplaya23
Cain isn't proven?Did you forget the WS run? He got paid because he deserved it. He's had at least 30 starts every year (other than his first) so he's durable. He can go up against any pitcher in this game and his record would be much better if he played on a team with a better offense. Honestly, Cain hasn't got the respect he deserves throughout his career so I'm happy for him. You can say he got a bit overpaid but I'm sure there were other teams that would give him $20 mil a year.
I'd give that size of a contract even more $ to Lincecum not to Cain.
Not that stats matter but compare Cain to Lincecum, cain isn't on the same level to get that type of money.
But fact of the matter is Cain is on his level. Take a hard look @ stats beyond W-L and you see just about every stat is comparable AND Cain is actually younger by a year or two
Cain's ERA+ is higher (What you want), His Whip is lower. gives up less Walks and HR but doesnt strike out as many batters as Linceum but its not far off. Timmy usually reaches 200+ K's (a few time quite a bit above 200) while cain is around 175+. And again, despite Lincecums higher SO numbers Cains K/BB rate is better.
Cain's deal is fair and considering what the Giants paid Zito 6 years ago its actually pretty good deal
The Giants 2 year extension for Timmy gives him good money and allows the team to wait to pay him until they can get rid of Zito's just god awful contract in 2014
- 71
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Timmy's going to get paid more money. Thats well known.Originally Posted by MFr3shM
Originally Posted by bbllplaya23
Cain isn't proven?Did you forget the WS run? He got paid because he deserved it. He's had at least 30 starts every year (other than his first) so he's durable. He can go up against any pitcher in this game and his record would be much better if he played on a team with a better offense. Honestly, Cain hasn't got the respect he deserves throughout his career so I'm happy for him. You can say he got a bit overpaid but I'm sure there were other teams that would give him $20 mil a year.
I'd give that size of a contract even more $ to Lincecum not to Cain.
Not that stats matter but compare Cain to Lincecum, cain isn't on the same level to get that type of money.
But fact of the matter is Cain is on his level. Take a hard look @ stats beyond W-L and you see just about every stat is comparable AND Cain is actually younger by a year or two
Cain's ERA+ is higher (What you want), His Whip is lower. gives up less Walks and HR but doesnt strike out as many batters as Linceum but its not far off. Timmy usually reaches 200+ K's (a few time quite a bit above 200) while cain is around 175+. And again, despite Lincecums higher SO numbers Cains K/BB rate is better.
Cain's deal is fair and considering what the Giants paid Zito 6 years ago its actually pretty good deal
The Giants 2 year extension for Timmy gives him good money and allows the team to wait to pay him until they can get rid of Zito's just god awful contract in 2014
Is Cain starting to be one of those pitchers who was under the radar and underrated but is now being overrated? I'm starting to feel that way. We'll never know now that he'll be in AT&T for the rest of his peak years.
The crossraods for Joey Votto.
The Pujols effect.
Joey Votto's deal is puzzling.
MLB predictions: divisions and awards.
The crossraods for Joey Votto.
Spoiler [+]
The presumption among rival executives last fall was that the Cincinnati Reds would deal Joey Votto before his trade value declined too much. Cincinnati was at a crossroads in deciding what to do with a young star who is a worthy heir to the legacy of Barry Larkin, Johnny Bench and Pete Rose.
As the 2011-2012 offseason began, the Reds essentially had three ways they could go:
1. They could have followed the path followed by their division rival, the Milwaukee Brewers. In spring training of 2010, the Brewers -- with a budget comparable to that of the Reds, who had a payroll of $81 million last season -- made an offer to Prince Fielder that was comfortable for them, of $100 million over five years.
Fielder rejected that overture, and after the Brewers determined that the slugger's trade value was diminished by his impending free agency, the Brewers opted to keep Fielder through the duration of his existing contract and try to win with him, knowing that he would walk away.
The Brewers made the playoffs in 2011, sold a lot of tickets and chose to not extend themselves into the Alex Rodriguez territory with a new offer to Fielder.
The Reds worked within essentially the same parameters as the Brewers -- and in fact, their challenge became even more acute when the market for first basemen was shook by Albert Pujols's 10-year, $246 million deal, and Fielders nine-year, $214 million contract.
2. The Reds could have followed the conventional path that most executives assumed they would take -- market and then trade Votto. As the winter began, the Reds had a ready-made replacement in place at first base in Yonder Alonso. If Cincinnati had swapped Votto during the winter, two executives said on Monday, they could have reasonably expected to get a package of four to five young players -- two Grade A prospects, a second-tier prospect and two lesser prospects.
By doing this, the Reds would have lost their most marketable and recognizable star, and they also would have avoided a possible collision with the limits of their budget. They would have steered around a pitfall that has hurt other small-market and middle-market teams: The massive investment in one player. The Colorado Rockies were greatly hamstrung for years by committing bid dollars to Todd Helton. Within three years of signing Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year, $252 million deal, the Texas Rangers traded him -- while absorbing 40 percent of his salary -- because his contract was too unwieldy for their budget.
The Minnesota Twins signed Joe Mauer to a $184 million deal in the spring of 2010, and within a year, Mauer was hurt, quickly exposing the inherent risk for a team with a payroll of $100 million to invest so heavily in one player. If you gave the Twins' executives some truth serum today, it'd be interesting to see if they would make the same choice.
Derek Jeter got a 10-year, $189 million with the New York Yankees before the 2001 season, one example of a long-term investment paying off for the team.
3. The Reds had the option of trying to sign Votto to a long-term extension, but in a situation in which the first baseman had all the leverage. He was within 20 months of free agency, the market for first baseman had rocketed, and there was no chance Votto would take a deal unless he had a complete no-trade clause.
As the offseason began, the Reds operated under the knowledge that in four years, they will have a new and presumably much more lucrative television contract in place. They viewed Votto as their Cal Ripken -- an asset that paid off enormously for the Baltimore Orioles, a team with a market similar to that of the Reds.
For the readers: What crossroad would you have taken?
The Reds chose a different path than that of the Brewers and made an extraordinary 12-year investment in Votto; they owe him $251.5 million. From year to year, he will likely account for 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, meaning that a notable decline in his performance, or a debilitating injury, will have a chance to cripple their ability to compete. They also will have a major star to anchor their lineup and present in their next negotiations for a television contract.
I e-mailed some talent evaluators for their reactions to the Votto deal on Monday. Some of the responses:
AL evaluator: "He is one heck of a player. I like the way he plays. At some point this contract will be a drag on a team in a mid-market, but I'm happy for him. Nothing has ever been given to him, he has earned everything in this game."
Longtime evaluator: "It is nuts."
NL evaluator: "It's a lot of money and years, but what was their alternative? If he were to leave it would crush the franchise. I think the new deals for Votto and Matt Cain, as some have mentioned, may be directly correlated to the purchase and purchase price for the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise. James Loney was a borderline non-tender this year and is not a long-term option; if they paired Votto with Matt Kemp they would have a 1-2 punch that might be better -- considering age, athleticism, and defense -- than Detroit's Fielder-Cabrera 1-2 punch. Given what guys like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder have signed for in recent years the money was fair. I think this is more of a case of ownership and GM Walt Jocketty making the commitment they wouldn't let their franchise player walk away -- even if it meant redefining their payroll parameters."
AL evaluator: "This is absolute insanity, but you have to at least like seeing a guy like him stay with his hometown club, even if the risk may outweigh the reward. You wonder if this type of market is at all sustainable. These players are being treated as once-in-a-generation types, which is hard to argue with Pujols, but wow. Astounding."
AL official: "Personally, I think he is among the top two offensive players in baseball, so you do what you have to do to keep him if you can afford it. I am sure it comes with a very sizeable opportunity cost for all future acquisitions."
Think about the extraordinary increase in the first base market in just one year. Adrian Gonzalez signed with the Boston Red Sox a year ago for seven years and $154 million, at a time when he was one season from free agency.
Votto was two years from free agency, and he got about 50 percent more in total dollars than Gonzalez.
The Reds went big to keep Votto, writes Paul Daugherty.
[h3]The Matt Cain deal[/h3]
The bottom line for the San Francisco Giants was this: If they hadn't offered Cain the record-setting deal for a right-handed pitcher, someone else would have. So they made the deal, signing one of baseball's great plow horses. He never complains, he never whines, he just takes the ball and pitches.
I got a lot of tweets in the aftermath of the Cain signing from some citing his 69-73 career record and suggesting that he is not worthy of his contract. I can't think of many other cases -- Felix Hernandez's 2010 season is one -- in which the W-L record is a more imperfect reflection of a pitcher's work than with Cain. He's got a 3.35 ERA and has made 196 starts in the last six seasons, a metronome of 33 starts and 200-plus innings a year. His ERA the last three seasons: 2.89, 3.14, 2.88. He's only 27 years old, and already he could be a working definition for consistency.
This was a win-win for Cain and the Giants.
[h3]The market is set for Cole Hamels[/h3]
Now the Phillies' decision about Hamels has been clearly framed for them by the Cain contract. The market value has been defined.
Hamels is about the same age as Cain, and he could be eligible for free agency in the fall, as Cain was. The only real difference is that Hamels is left-handed and Cain is a righty, and typically, lefties have gotten the largest deals, from CC Sabathia to Cliff Lee to Johan Santana to Barry Zito.
The talks between the Phillies and Hamels have been dormant in recent weeks but can be rekindled with a single phone call. It's hard to imagine, though, that any offer markedly less than what Cain got would have a chance for a deal.
The Phillies have been asking themselves this: Do they want to commit about $70 million annually to three starting pitchers -- and $95 million to four players, if you include Ryan Howard? Can that be a framework that will create success?
If the Phillies don't want to pay Hamels market value, someone else will.
The Yankees will be in a better position to make a pitch for pitchers in a couple of years, writes Joel Sherman.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Cleveland Indians will appeal the Ubaldo Jimenez suspension. If the suspension is dropped after his first start, then the Indians can essentially absorb his absence without much of a blip, because of the placement of an off day.
Ubaldo is wrong and needs to change his approach, writes Terry Pluto.
• Maybe the massive deals we've seen in the last few months -- the labor agreement, the Dodgers' sale, the enormous TV contracts, the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signings, Joey Votto, Matt Cain, etc. -- will end the "baseball is dying" narrative.
• The signings of Fielder and Pujols have had a significant impact on the secondary ticket market, according to Chris Matcovich of TiqIQ.com. He sent along this data:
Top five teams with the highest home average ticket price:
• Red Sox: $151.10
• Cubs: $108.70
• Phillies: $100.71
• Yankees: $90.21
• Nationals: $88.24
Top five teams with the lowest home average ticket price:
• Brewers: $48
• Pirates: $48
• Royals: $48
• Dodgers: $49
• Reds: $54.43
Top five teams with the highest Opening Day ticket price:
• Red Sox: $305.58
• Yankees: $256.54
• Marlins: $255.28
• Cardinals: $248.68
• Rangers: $237.22
Top five games of the year by average price:
• %%!%-Yankees at Red Sox: $508.91
• 7/6-Yankees at Red Sox: $356.42
• 7/7-Yankees at Red Sox: $334.74
• 4/13-Rays at Red Sox: $305.69
• 9/12-Yankees at Red Sox: $277.89
Other interesting ticketing data for the upcoming season:
• As a point of comparison, the Marlins' average ticket price in their inaugural season in their new park ($76.72) is currently 10.81 percent below that of the Twins' when they opened Target Field in 2010 ($86.02)
• The additions of C.J. Wilson and Pujols have caused the Angels' average ticket price to increase 9.52 percent in last year
• The addition of Fielder has caused the Tigers' average ticket price to increase 34.37 percent in last year
• The Dodgers currently rank 27th in the majors in average ticket price
• The Cardinals' average Opening Day ticket price is currently 334.5 percent above the teams' home ticket average, the biggest percentage increase in the season following a World Series in the past three seasons.
• Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox closer, needs surgery. He will see the surgeon today.
You'd have to think that this increases the likelihood that Daniel Bard will eventually move back to the bullpen, because the Red Sox appear much more vulnerable in that part of their team than in the rotation.
• Frank McCourt met with Dodgers employees.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Johnny Damon is looking for an opportunity for about 450 plate appearances, and it figures a chance will come at some point for a player who had 52 extra-base hits, 100 singles and 51 walks last season.
Baltimore, by the way, still does not have a DH. Scott Boras, Damon's agent, wrote in an e-mail in response to a question, "For me, DH is like closing -- many can throw but few can close. Many can hit but few can dh.
"Damon will be signed by May 1st. [We] just don't know where."
2. Michael Pineda's injury altered plans for the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.
3. Jake Arrieta is getting the ball on Opening Day for the Orioles.
4. Nolan Ryan says the Rangers are better off with Josh Hamilton in center.
5. Justin Morneau will open the year as a DH.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Mets' closer is hurting.
2. Sam Fuld is going to have wrist surgery.
3. Corey Hart will be in the lineup on Opening Day.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. With others really struggling this spring, Patrick Corbin may have a chance for a spot with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro writes.
2. Chad Tracy was among those who made the Washington roster.
3. Eric Sogard is impressing with the Oakland Athletics, writes Susan Slusser.
4. The Rays' shortstop situation is coming down to the wire.
5. The Atlanta Braves announced a couple of roster decisions at shortstop and pitcher.
6. Lucas Harrell won a spot in the Houston rotation.
7. The Kansas City Royals are going to match up their catchers with specific pitchers.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Joe Blanton made progress.
2. Felix Hernandez's velocity is down, and he's still dominant.
3. Chris Young mashed his fifth homer.
4. Buster Posey got a huge ovation.
5. Brett Cecil had another bad day.
6. Carlos Zambrano capped an inconsistent first spring.
7. Expectations took stage for Pujols and the Los Angeles Angels. Pujols is shrugging off the pressure, writes Bill Plunkett.
8. The Detroit Tigers trotted out what could be their Opening Day lineup and killed the ball.
9. Francisco Liriano had another good outing.
As the 2011-2012 offseason began, the Reds essentially had three ways they could go:
1. They could have followed the path followed by their division rival, the Milwaukee Brewers. In spring training of 2010, the Brewers -- with a budget comparable to that of the Reds, who had a payroll of $81 million last season -- made an offer to Prince Fielder that was comfortable for them, of $100 million over five years.
Fielder rejected that overture, and after the Brewers determined that the slugger's trade value was diminished by his impending free agency, the Brewers opted to keep Fielder through the duration of his existing contract and try to win with him, knowing that he would walk away.
The Brewers made the playoffs in 2011, sold a lot of tickets and chose to not extend themselves into the Alex Rodriguez territory with a new offer to Fielder.
The Reds worked within essentially the same parameters as the Brewers -- and in fact, their challenge became even more acute when the market for first basemen was shook by Albert Pujols's 10-year, $246 million deal, and Fielders nine-year, $214 million contract.
2. The Reds could have followed the conventional path that most executives assumed they would take -- market and then trade Votto. As the winter began, the Reds had a ready-made replacement in place at first base in Yonder Alonso. If Cincinnati had swapped Votto during the winter, two executives said on Monday, they could have reasonably expected to get a package of four to five young players -- two Grade A prospects, a second-tier prospect and two lesser prospects.
By doing this, the Reds would have lost their most marketable and recognizable star, and they also would have avoided a possible collision with the limits of their budget. They would have steered around a pitfall that has hurt other small-market and middle-market teams: The massive investment in one player. The Colorado Rockies were greatly hamstrung for years by committing bid dollars to Todd Helton. Within three years of signing Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year, $252 million deal, the Texas Rangers traded him -- while absorbing 40 percent of his salary -- because his contract was too unwieldy for their budget.
The Minnesota Twins signed Joe Mauer to a $184 million deal in the spring of 2010, and within a year, Mauer was hurt, quickly exposing the inherent risk for a team with a payroll of $100 million to invest so heavily in one player. If you gave the Twins' executives some truth serum today, it'd be interesting to see if they would make the same choice.
Derek Jeter got a 10-year, $189 million with the New York Yankees before the 2001 season, one example of a long-term investment paying off for the team.
3. The Reds had the option of trying to sign Votto to a long-term extension, but in a situation in which the first baseman had all the leverage. He was within 20 months of free agency, the market for first baseman had rocketed, and there was no chance Votto would take a deal unless he had a complete no-trade clause.
As the offseason began, the Reds operated under the knowledge that in four years, they will have a new and presumably much more lucrative television contract in place. They viewed Votto as their Cal Ripken -- an asset that paid off enormously for the Baltimore Orioles, a team with a market similar to that of the Reds.
For the readers: What crossroad would you have taken?
The Reds chose a different path than that of the Brewers and made an extraordinary 12-year investment in Votto; they owe him $251.5 million. From year to year, he will likely account for 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, meaning that a notable decline in his performance, or a debilitating injury, will have a chance to cripple their ability to compete. They also will have a major star to anchor their lineup and present in their next negotiations for a television contract.
I e-mailed some talent evaluators for their reactions to the Votto deal on Monday. Some of the responses:
AL evaluator: "He is one heck of a player. I like the way he plays. At some point this contract will be a drag on a team in a mid-market, but I'm happy for him. Nothing has ever been given to him, he has earned everything in this game."
Longtime evaluator: "It is nuts."
NL evaluator: "It's a lot of money and years, but what was their alternative? If he were to leave it would crush the franchise. I think the new deals for Votto and Matt Cain, as some have mentioned, may be directly correlated to the purchase and purchase price for the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise. James Loney was a borderline non-tender this year and is not a long-term option; if they paired Votto with Matt Kemp they would have a 1-2 punch that might be better -- considering age, athleticism, and defense -- than Detroit's Fielder-Cabrera 1-2 punch. Given what guys like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder have signed for in recent years the money was fair. I think this is more of a case of ownership and GM Walt Jocketty making the commitment they wouldn't let their franchise player walk away -- even if it meant redefining their payroll parameters."
AL evaluator: "This is absolute insanity, but you have to at least like seeing a guy like him stay with his hometown club, even if the risk may outweigh the reward. You wonder if this type of market is at all sustainable. These players are being treated as once-in-a-generation types, which is hard to argue with Pujols, but wow. Astounding."
AL official: "Personally, I think he is among the top two offensive players in baseball, so you do what you have to do to keep him if you can afford it. I am sure it comes with a very sizeable opportunity cost for all future acquisitions."
Think about the extraordinary increase in the first base market in just one year. Adrian Gonzalez signed with the Boston Red Sox a year ago for seven years and $154 million, at a time when he was one season from free agency.
Votto was two years from free agency, and he got about 50 percent more in total dollars than Gonzalez.
The Reds went big to keep Votto, writes Paul Daugherty.
[h3]The Matt Cain deal[/h3]
The bottom line for the San Francisco Giants was this: If they hadn't offered Cain the record-setting deal for a right-handed pitcher, someone else would have. So they made the deal, signing one of baseball's great plow horses. He never complains, he never whines, he just takes the ball and pitches.
I got a lot of tweets in the aftermath of the Cain signing from some citing his 69-73 career record and suggesting that he is not worthy of his contract. I can't think of many other cases -- Felix Hernandez's 2010 season is one -- in which the W-L record is a more imperfect reflection of a pitcher's work than with Cain. He's got a 3.35 ERA and has made 196 starts in the last six seasons, a metronome of 33 starts and 200-plus innings a year. His ERA the last three seasons: 2.89, 3.14, 2.88. He's only 27 years old, and already he could be a working definition for consistency.
This was a win-win for Cain and the Giants.
[h3]The market is set for Cole Hamels[/h3]
Now the Phillies' decision about Hamels has been clearly framed for them by the Cain contract. The market value has been defined.
Hamels is about the same age as Cain, and he could be eligible for free agency in the fall, as Cain was. The only real difference is that Hamels is left-handed and Cain is a righty, and typically, lefties have gotten the largest deals, from CC Sabathia to Cliff Lee to Johan Santana to Barry Zito.
The talks between the Phillies and Hamels have been dormant in recent weeks but can be rekindled with a single phone call. It's hard to imagine, though, that any offer markedly less than what Cain got would have a chance for a deal.
The Phillies have been asking themselves this: Do they want to commit about $70 million annually to three starting pitchers -- and $95 million to four players, if you include Ryan Howard? Can that be a framework that will create success?
If the Phillies don't want to pay Hamels market value, someone else will.
The Yankees will be in a better position to make a pitch for pitchers in a couple of years, writes Joel Sherman.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Cleveland Indians will appeal the Ubaldo Jimenez suspension. If the suspension is dropped after his first start, then the Indians can essentially absorb his absence without much of a blip, because of the placement of an off day.
Ubaldo is wrong and needs to change his approach, writes Terry Pluto.
• Maybe the massive deals we've seen in the last few months -- the labor agreement, the Dodgers' sale, the enormous TV contracts, the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signings, Joey Votto, Matt Cain, etc. -- will end the "baseball is dying" narrative.
• The signings of Fielder and Pujols have had a significant impact on the secondary ticket market, according to Chris Matcovich of TiqIQ.com. He sent along this data:
Top five teams with the highest home average ticket price:
• Red Sox: $151.10
• Cubs: $108.70
• Phillies: $100.71
• Yankees: $90.21
• Nationals: $88.24
Top five teams with the lowest home average ticket price:
• Brewers: $48
• Pirates: $48
• Royals: $48
• Dodgers: $49
• Reds: $54.43
Top five teams with the highest Opening Day ticket price:
• Red Sox: $305.58
• Yankees: $256.54
• Marlins: $255.28
• Cardinals: $248.68
• Rangers: $237.22
Top five games of the year by average price:
• %%!%-Yankees at Red Sox: $508.91
• 7/6-Yankees at Red Sox: $356.42
• 7/7-Yankees at Red Sox: $334.74
• 4/13-Rays at Red Sox: $305.69
• 9/12-Yankees at Red Sox: $277.89
Other interesting ticketing data for the upcoming season:
• As a point of comparison, the Marlins' average ticket price in their inaugural season in their new park ($76.72) is currently 10.81 percent below that of the Twins' when they opened Target Field in 2010 ($86.02)
• The additions of C.J. Wilson and Pujols have caused the Angels' average ticket price to increase 9.52 percent in last year
• The addition of Fielder has caused the Tigers' average ticket price to increase 34.37 percent in last year
• The Dodgers currently rank 27th in the majors in average ticket price
• The Cardinals' average Opening Day ticket price is currently 334.5 percent above the teams' home ticket average, the biggest percentage increase in the season following a World Series in the past three seasons.
• Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox closer, needs surgery. He will see the surgeon today.
You'd have to think that this increases the likelihood that Daniel Bard will eventually move back to the bullpen, because the Red Sox appear much more vulnerable in that part of their team than in the rotation.
• Frank McCourt met with Dodgers employees.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Johnny Damon is looking for an opportunity for about 450 plate appearances, and it figures a chance will come at some point for a player who had 52 extra-base hits, 100 singles and 51 walks last season.
Baltimore, by the way, still does not have a DH. Scott Boras, Damon's agent, wrote in an e-mail in response to a question, "For me, DH is like closing -- many can throw but few can close. Many can hit but few can dh.
"Damon will be signed by May 1st. [We] just don't know where."
2. Michael Pineda's injury altered plans for the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.
3. Jake Arrieta is getting the ball on Opening Day for the Orioles.
4. Nolan Ryan says the Rangers are better off with Josh Hamilton in center.
5. Justin Morneau will open the year as a DH.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Mets' closer is hurting.
2. Sam Fuld is going to have wrist surgery.
3. Corey Hart will be in the lineup on Opening Day.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. With others really struggling this spring, Patrick Corbin may have a chance for a spot with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro writes.
2. Chad Tracy was among those who made the Washington roster.
3. Eric Sogard is impressing with the Oakland Athletics, writes Susan Slusser.
4. The Rays' shortstop situation is coming down to the wire.
5. The Atlanta Braves announced a couple of roster decisions at shortstop and pitcher.
6. Lucas Harrell won a spot in the Houston rotation.
7. The Kansas City Royals are going to match up their catchers with specific pitchers.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Joe Blanton made progress.
2. Felix Hernandez's velocity is down, and he's still dominant.
3. Chris Young mashed his fifth homer.
4. Buster Posey got a huge ovation.
5. Brett Cecil had another bad day.
6. Carlos Zambrano capped an inconsistent first spring.
7. Expectations took stage for Pujols and the Los Angeles Angels. Pujols is shrugging off the pressure, writes Bill Plunkett.
8. The Detroit Tigers trotted out what could be their Opening Day lineup and killed the ball.
9. Francisco Liriano had another good outing.
The Pujols effect.
Spoiler [+]
Albert Pujols has been at or near the center of the baseball universe for more than a decade, and his leaving the St. Louis Cardinals after their World Series triumph to join the Los Angeles Angels was one of the biggest, if not the biggest, stories of baseball's offseason.
But as good as Pujols is -- and he is very, very, very good -- he is only one man, and one player can have only so much impact on a team's win total. However, you wouldn't know that from looking at the Week 1 MLB Power Rankings, where the Angels come in much higher than they should have (No. 3) and the Cardinals come in a bit lower than they deserve (No. 9).
Let's start with the Angels. They have three of the best starters in Major League Baseball in Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson, and one of the game's best hitters in Pujols. Unfortunately, they have little offensive firepower behind him -- the Angels' .314 wOBA ranked just 16th in the majors last year -- and Pujols can't fix that all by himself. For starters, Pujols is not the hitter he once was. In 2008, he posted a wOBA of .458. In the three years since, his wOBA has been .449, .420 and .385. That's not a promising trend. Of the six projections that FanGraphs lists for him, the most generous has him at a .422 wOBA, which would narrowly edge out his rookie season for his seventh-best season mark. He is still among the best hitters in the game, but the gap between him and the field has shrunk.
Although Pujols may have come back to the pack across the game, though, he will be far and away the Angels' best hitter. If you break out Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections by team, you see that the only Angels hitter who ranks in the top 50 in wOBA is Pujols. The next-best Angels hitter comes in at 95th place, and his name is Mike Trout. You may remember Trout as the dynamic, five-tool player whom Keith Law ranks as the game's top prospect and the Angels sent to Triple-A to start the season. Next up, ranking 138th, is Torii Hunter. That's precious little firepower.
By comparison, the Yankees have six hitters who are projected in the top 50 in wOBA; the Red Sox have five; the Rangers have four (with Adrian Beltre projected at 54th). The Rays have two in the top 50 and four more projected ahead of Hunter. Even the top-heavy Tigers have four hitters projected in the top 100. Now, every projection system has its quirks, and none is infallible, but scan any projection system, and you are likely to find similar forecasts.
The Angels should be lauded for having the wherewithal to sign Pujols and Wilson this winter. But baseball is played by 25 men, and the team has little that it can bank on behind Pujols. If the Angels get Trout up quickly and Kendrys Morales hits like he did in 2009, the Halos could have a top-10 offense, but at this time, saying that they do or ranking them third overall is a stretch.
Just as we can't jump to conclusions and say that the Angels will be totes amazeballs because they landed Pujols, we also shouldn't drop the Cardinals too far because they lost him. Per FanGraphs, the Cardinals derived 5.1 wins above replacement from Pujols in 2011. His replacement in the lineup, Carlos Beltran, generated a 4.7 WAR. That may be Pujols at his worst and Beltran at his best in recent years, but there isn't a whole lot of difference in the performance of those two players last season.
Two more mitigating factors reflect positively on St. Louis and make the Beltran-Pujols comparison a wash for the Cards. First, if Beltran or first baseman Lance Berkman needs to rest his legs for a day, Allen Craig is a more-than-adequate backup. Craig was used sparingly before his star turn in September and the postseason -- for the season, he accumulated just 219 plate appearances -- and getting his bat into the lineup more frequently will be a positive. Second, getting Berkman back to first base where he belongs will help the team's defense. Berkman has never been much of an outfielder, and he shouldn't be nearly as much of a butcher stationed back at first base.
The Cardinals have other positives as well. They hope to get full seasons of Adam Wainwright and Rafael Furcal. Lance Lynn should be an adequate replacement for Chris Carpenter while he is on the shelf (ZiPS projects a healthy 3.83 FIP for Lynn), and prospect Shelby Miller could make for a Tim Lincecum-like midseason replacement if needed. And save Lynn, the Cardinals' bullpen that posted a 3.40 fielding-independent pitching from July through the end of the season returns nearly all of its principals.
Pujols is a great player and is in the very short conversation for best player of the aughts. But he is not a miracle worker. He can't save the Angels' offense all by himself, and with Beltran in the fold, the Cardinals won't miss him as much as many think.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005 and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
But as good as Pujols is -- and he is very, very, very good -- he is only one man, and one player can have only so much impact on a team's win total. However, you wouldn't know that from looking at the Week 1 MLB Power Rankings, where the Angels come in much higher than they should have (No. 3) and the Cardinals come in a bit lower than they deserve (No. 9).
Let's start with the Angels. They have three of the best starters in Major League Baseball in Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson, and one of the game's best hitters in Pujols. Unfortunately, they have little offensive firepower behind him -- the Angels' .314 wOBA ranked just 16th in the majors last year -- and Pujols can't fix that all by himself. For starters, Pujols is not the hitter he once was. In 2008, he posted a wOBA of .458. In the three years since, his wOBA has been .449, .420 and .385. That's not a promising trend. Of the six projections that FanGraphs lists for him, the most generous has him at a .422 wOBA, which would narrowly edge out his rookie season for his seventh-best season mark. He is still among the best hitters in the game, but the gap between him and the field has shrunk.
Although Pujols may have come back to the pack across the game, though, he will be far and away the Angels' best hitter. If you break out Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections by team, you see that the only Angels hitter who ranks in the top 50 in wOBA is Pujols. The next-best Angels hitter comes in at 95th place, and his name is Mike Trout. You may remember Trout as the dynamic, five-tool player whom Keith Law ranks as the game's top prospect and the Angels sent to Triple-A to start the season. Next up, ranking 138th, is Torii Hunter. That's precious little firepower.
By comparison, the Yankees have six hitters who are projected in the top 50 in wOBA; the Red Sox have five; the Rangers have four (with Adrian Beltre projected at 54th). The Rays have two in the top 50 and four more projected ahead of Hunter. Even the top-heavy Tigers have four hitters projected in the top 100. Now, every projection system has its quirks, and none is infallible, but scan any projection system, and you are likely to find similar forecasts.
The Angels should be lauded for having the wherewithal to sign Pujols and Wilson this winter. But baseball is played by 25 men, and the team has little that it can bank on behind Pujols. If the Angels get Trout up quickly and Kendrys Morales hits like he did in 2009, the Halos could have a top-10 offense, but at this time, saying that they do or ranking them third overall is a stretch.
Just as we can't jump to conclusions and say that the Angels will be totes amazeballs because they landed Pujols, we also shouldn't drop the Cardinals too far because they lost him. Per FanGraphs, the Cardinals derived 5.1 wins above replacement from Pujols in 2011. His replacement in the lineup, Carlos Beltran, generated a 4.7 WAR. That may be Pujols at his worst and Beltran at his best in recent years, but there isn't a whole lot of difference in the performance of those two players last season.
Two more mitigating factors reflect positively on St. Louis and make the Beltran-Pujols comparison a wash for the Cards. First, if Beltran or first baseman Lance Berkman needs to rest his legs for a day, Allen Craig is a more-than-adequate backup. Craig was used sparingly before his star turn in September and the postseason -- for the season, he accumulated just 219 plate appearances -- and getting his bat into the lineup more frequently will be a positive. Second, getting Berkman back to first base where he belongs will help the team's defense. Berkman has never been much of an outfielder, and he shouldn't be nearly as much of a butcher stationed back at first base.
The Cardinals have other positives as well. They hope to get full seasons of Adam Wainwright and Rafael Furcal. Lance Lynn should be an adequate replacement for Chris Carpenter while he is on the shelf (ZiPS projects a healthy 3.83 FIP for Lynn), and prospect Shelby Miller could make for a Tim Lincecum-like midseason replacement if needed. And save Lynn, the Cardinals' bullpen that posted a 3.40 fielding-independent pitching from July through the end of the season returns nearly all of its principals.
Pujols is a great player and is in the very short conversation for best player of the aughts. But he is not a miracle worker. He can't save the Angels' offense all by himself, and with Beltran in the fold, the Cardinals won't miss him as much as many think.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005 and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Joey Votto's deal is puzzling.
Spoiler [+]
In giving Joey Votto what we are reporting is a 10-year, $225 million extension, the Reds make what I can only assume is a panic signing, a full year and a half before free agency. It's an extension they almost certainly will regret before it reaches its halfway point.
Scott Rovak/US PresswireThe money corner.
The Votto extension follows on the heels of two other massive deals handed out to first basemen -- deals that commit to players deep into their 30s -- but while three wrongs might make a trend, it doesn't make the philosophy sane. The Albert Pujols (Angels) and Prince Fielder (Tigers) deals didn't actually make sense, but at least they were signed by large-payroll clubs playing in large markets. Votto's 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the back half of this deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack.
The Reds already had Votto under contract for 2012 and 2013 at well-below-market salaries, so the extension won't begin in earnest until his age-30 season, by which point Votto will most likely have already peaked, meaning he'll spend virtually the entire extension declining from his peak. Granted, that peak -- about seven wins above replacement a year, per FanGraphs -- is extremely high, meaning Votto likely will still be a valuable player for the next four or five years, but he's also a slow-footed first baseman, one of the worst-aging categories of players. His value likely will drop by half before the extension is halfway through, perhaps sooner given the propensity of position players to miss more time due to injuries in their 30s.
The Reds' payroll last year was just more than $80 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, so while we'd expect that to rise with industry inflation, Votto is likely to account for roughly 20 percent of the team's payroll once the extension kicks in, while providing ever-declining value on the field. The Cincinnati farm system is only middle of the road and after Devon Mesoraco has a gap before the next likely impact player arrives, meaning the Reds' window to win is probably now and 2013 but could start to close quickly after that.
I actually like Votto's chances to minimize the albatross years more than Fielder's or Pujols' chances, but that doesn't mean this deal makes any sense for the Reds. The history of deals this long is ugly. The history of corner position players playing into their mid- to late 30s is ugly. And the team isn't likely to ever run a payroll so high that carrying Votto while he's returning 50 cents on the dollar isn't a big deal.
The Votto extension follows on the heels of two other massive deals handed out to first basemen -- deals that commit to players deep into their 30s -- but while three wrongs might make a trend, it doesn't make the philosophy sane. The Albert Pujols (Angels) and Prince Fielder (Tigers) deals didn't actually make sense, but at least they were signed by large-payroll clubs playing in large markets. Votto's 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the back half of this deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack.
The Reds already had Votto under contract for 2012 and 2013 at well-below-market salaries, so the extension won't begin in earnest until his age-30 season, by which point Votto will most likely have already peaked, meaning he'll spend virtually the entire extension declining from his peak. Granted, that peak -- about seven wins above replacement a year, per FanGraphs -- is extremely high, meaning Votto likely will still be a valuable player for the next four or five years, but he's also a slow-footed first baseman, one of the worst-aging categories of players. His value likely will drop by half before the extension is halfway through, perhaps sooner given the propensity of position players to miss more time due to injuries in their 30s.
The Reds' payroll last year was just more than $80 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, so while we'd expect that to rise with industry inflation, Votto is likely to account for roughly 20 percent of the team's payroll once the extension kicks in, while providing ever-declining value on the field. The Cincinnati farm system is only middle of the road and after Devon Mesoraco has a gap before the next likely impact player arrives, meaning the Reds' window to win is probably now and 2013 but could start to close quickly after that.
I actually like Votto's chances to minimize the albatross years more than Fielder's or Pujols' chances, but that doesn't mean this deal makes any sense for the Reds. The history of deals this long is ugly. The history of corner position players playing into their mid- to late 30s is ugly. And the team isn't likely to ever run a payroll so high that carrying Votto while he's returning 50 cents on the dollar isn't a big deal.
MLB predictions: divisions and awards.
Spoiler [+]
As usual, I've sketched out my win-loss predictions for all 30 teams and winners for the six major postseason awards. Usually, I find it's easy to pick a few teams I think will run away from their respective packs -- which isn't to say I've had any great success in doing so -- but this year feels more compressed than the typical season, especially in the two East divisions. It likely won't play out that way, of course, but I could make compelling arguments for four teams in the AL East to win their divisions, and at least three in the NL East to do the same. Awards predictions follow the division picks.
Here are the picks for 2012:
[h3]AL East[/h3]
[h4]AL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Yankees[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rays[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Red Sox[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]85[/td][td]77[/td][/tr][tr][td]Orioles[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Aside from Baltimore -- not a 90-loss team in any other division but this one, and still featuring enough interesting players that you want to watch them -- the biggest gap between any two teams in this division is between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays, which isn't that big of a gap to begin with. I like the Blue Jays' depth, I think their rotation is a little underrated, I see plenty of bounceback candidates up and down that roster without many big regression candidates, and I think the front office is motivated to add talent during the season if they're close to a playoff spot. As for the top three clubs, even with Michael Pineda's spring struggles, the New York Yankees still line up as the best team top to bottom, and all the focus on Pineda has meant the addition of Hiroki Kuroda has flown under the radar. The Red Sox have the most questions and the least depth of the contenders here, and I'm also skeptical of Daniel Bard's ability to turn over AL lineups three times, especially those with a lot of left-handed hitters.
[h3]AL Central[/h3]
[h4]AL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tigers[/td][td]95[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Indians[/td][td]78[/td][td]84[/td][/tr][tr][td]Twins[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]67[/td][td]95[/td][/tr][/table]
The Detroit Tigers seem to me to be the team most likely to run away with its division, even with a top-heavy roster that doesn't give them a lot of options if any major piece in the lineup or rotation should miss a significant chunk of time; there just isn't another club in the division that's close to them. The Kansas City Royals' run prevention should improve this year thanks to the best defense they've run out there in ages, and I think Eric Hosmer is primed for a big breakout season. The Cleveland Indians had a lot of things go right last year that won't repeat in 2012, but their falloff will be mitigated by improvements from two of Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, and Michael Brantley. The Minnesota Twins' performance this year largely hinges on the health of their two best players, which is a better question for the doctors (or Stephania Bell) than it is for me. The White Sox aren't a 95-loss team on paper right now, but I expect they'll look to move another veteran or two as the season goes on and things could get ugly on the South Side.
[h3]AL West[/h3]
[h4]AL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][tr][td]A's[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Bottom line: The top two teams here will make the playoffs, the bottom two won't. I like the top of the Los Angeles Angels' roster better than I like the Texas Rangers', but the Rangers have a lot more pitching depth to get through the season; the Angels have four MLB-worthy starters in their entire organization right now, and they need 120 or so starts from them. The Seattle Mariners have made some progress, and I think their offense will get out of the "worst of all time" discussion with a full season of Dustin Ackley, a healthy Justin Smoak, and the arrival of Jesus Montero, but there isn't much more help coming from the farm this year. The Oakland A's have Yoenis Cespedes and a lot of fun young arms, but they're back at the start of another three-year rebuilding cycle.
[h3]NL East[/h3]
[h4]NL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Marlins[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
I see flawed baseball teams. The top three teams in this division all look like hollow contenders -- they have the right shell, but once you crack that open there's less inside than you expected to find. The Philadelphia Phillies have three aces in their rotation and far less offense than any roster they've run out there since their run of contention began. The Atlanta Braves have stars and depth in their rotation, one of the majors' best bullpens, and a few breakout/bounceback candidates in the lineup (Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward in particular), but several incurable holes in the lineup and a lot of risk after that 'pen was overworked last year. The Miami Marlins' attempts to buy a contender with public money might work, but the whole looks like less than the sum of its parts to me, due again to lack of depth and nothing ready to help from the farm this year. The Washington Nationals are a popular darkhorse, and in the NL Central I might buy it, but they need a lot of breaks to hang with the three teams ahead of them and aren't in a position to push Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmerman too hard in the second half. The New York Mets are the Orioles of the NL in one aspect -- their division makes them look worse than they actually are -- although I think they're two years from their next winning record.
[h3]NL Central[/h3]
[h4]NL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Reds[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brewers[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cubs[/td][td]73[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pirates[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Houston[/td][td]52[/td][td]110[/td][/tr][/table]
I wouldn't trust Dusty Baker to manage a convenience store, but he's got a substantial amount of talent at his disposal this year, enough to win a weakened division where the Cincinnati Reds' two main rivals lost major offensive cogs this winter. I shaved three wins off the St. Louis Cardinals' total for the injury to Chris Carpenter and my expectation that Adam Wainwright's workload will be limited in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but the front office there has done enough to survive the loss of Albert Pujols. The Milwaukee Brewers seem primed for a fall in offense and run prevention; would they consider moving any of their impending free agents --such as Zack Greinke -- at midseason, even with the reduced prices they'll get under the new collective bargaining agreement? That rule change plus the extra wild card spot creates some strong incentives for teams that should be selling to stay the course or even buy. The Astros won 56 games last year and are worse up and down the roster, even assuming they keep Wandy Rodriguez all year, with no immediate help coming from the farm; it's going to be an ugly summer in Houston, and I don't just mean the traffic and humidity.
[h3]NL West[/h3]
[h4]NL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Diamondbacks[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Giants[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]82[/td][td]80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rockies[/td][td]80[/td][td]82[/td][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.
[h3]Player awards[/h3]
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
I admit I mention Longoria in this space just about every year, but here's a vote for him to finally stay healthy enough to show off all his skills in one season. He can field, get on base, and hit for power; last year's drop in batting average was fluky, and if that returns to at least his previous norm he'll be a top-three player in the league.
NL MVP: Justin Upton
Upton was pretty close to Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun for about two-thirds of the 2011 season, but couldn't quite keep pace and finished fourth in the NL MVP race last year. He's just 24 years old, though, and he's still getting better.
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
This is partly based on the potential for a narrative if Darvish dominates early and "leads" Texas to 90-plus wins, as if they were incapable of doing that without him the last two years. But I do think Darvish has all of the ingredients -- velocity, location, an out pitch (a hard slider), durability, feel -- to be among the top-five starters in the league, along with Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, and the underrated Dan Haren.
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
You can see the headlines now, right? Hamels wins the Cy Young Award in early November, and a week later signs a seven-year, $150-million deal with the Dodgers. He's the third man in the Phillies' rotation but I think he's poised to leapfrog Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee -- both also serious contenders for this award -- and establish a new level of performance for himself going forward.
AL Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish
See above. Matt Moore would be a close second for me, with Jesus Montero third (as I fear Safeco will tamp down his unadjusted stat line). Mike Trout could win this if the Angels get him back to the big leagues early enough this year.
NL Rookie of the Year: Devin Mesoraco
Of course, when Mesoraco goes 1-for-14 in the first week and Dusty decides to bench him for a month, this pick won't look so hot, but the competition in the NL, at least among players who currently have major league jobs, is really thin, with Mesoraco's teammate Zack Cozart, former teammate Yonder Alonso (whose superficial numbers will be hurt by Petco), and whoever Atlanta names its starting shortstop the only other rookies with solid holds on jobs. This could just as easily go to a midseason callup like Trevor Bauer or Bryce Harper.
Here are the picks for 2012:
[h3]AL East[/h3]
[h4]AL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Yankees[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rays[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Red Sox[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]85[/td][td]77[/td][/tr][tr][td]Orioles[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Aside from Baltimore -- not a 90-loss team in any other division but this one, and still featuring enough interesting players that you want to watch them -- the biggest gap between any two teams in this division is between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays, which isn't that big of a gap to begin with. I like the Blue Jays' depth, I think their rotation is a little underrated, I see plenty of bounceback candidates up and down that roster without many big regression candidates, and I think the front office is motivated to add talent during the season if they're close to a playoff spot. As for the top three clubs, even with Michael Pineda's spring struggles, the New York Yankees still line up as the best team top to bottom, and all the focus on Pineda has meant the addition of Hiroki Kuroda has flown under the radar. The Red Sox have the most questions and the least depth of the contenders here, and I'm also skeptical of Daniel Bard's ability to turn over AL lineups three times, especially those with a lot of left-handed hitters.
[h3]AL Central[/h3]
[h4]AL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tigers[/td][td]95[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Indians[/td][td]78[/td][td]84[/td][/tr][tr][td]Twins[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]67[/td][td]95[/td][/tr][/table]
The Detroit Tigers seem to me to be the team most likely to run away with its division, even with a top-heavy roster that doesn't give them a lot of options if any major piece in the lineup or rotation should miss a significant chunk of time; there just isn't another club in the division that's close to them. The Kansas City Royals' run prevention should improve this year thanks to the best defense they've run out there in ages, and I think Eric Hosmer is primed for a big breakout season. The Cleveland Indians had a lot of things go right last year that won't repeat in 2012, but their falloff will be mitigated by improvements from two of Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, and Michael Brantley. The Minnesota Twins' performance this year largely hinges on the health of their two best players, which is a better question for the doctors (or Stephania Bell) than it is for me. The White Sox aren't a 95-loss team on paper right now, but I expect they'll look to move another veteran or two as the season goes on and things could get ugly on the South Side.
[h3]AL West[/h3]
[h4]AL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][tr][td]A's[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Bottom line: The top two teams here will make the playoffs, the bottom two won't. I like the top of the Los Angeles Angels' roster better than I like the Texas Rangers', but the Rangers have a lot more pitching depth to get through the season; the Angels have four MLB-worthy starters in their entire organization right now, and they need 120 or so starts from them. The Seattle Mariners have made some progress, and I think their offense will get out of the "worst of all time" discussion with a full season of Dustin Ackley, a healthy Justin Smoak, and the arrival of Jesus Montero, but there isn't much more help coming from the farm this year. The Oakland A's have Yoenis Cespedes and a lot of fun young arms, but they're back at the start of another three-year rebuilding cycle.
[h3]NL East[/h3]
[h4]NL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Marlins[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
I see flawed baseball teams. The top three teams in this division all look like hollow contenders -- they have the right shell, but once you crack that open there's less inside than you expected to find. The Philadelphia Phillies have three aces in their rotation and far less offense than any roster they've run out there since their run of contention began. The Atlanta Braves have stars and depth in their rotation, one of the majors' best bullpens, and a few breakout/bounceback candidates in the lineup (Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward in particular), but several incurable holes in the lineup and a lot of risk after that 'pen was overworked last year. The Miami Marlins' attempts to buy a contender with public money might work, but the whole looks like less than the sum of its parts to me, due again to lack of depth and nothing ready to help from the farm this year. The Washington Nationals are a popular darkhorse, and in the NL Central I might buy it, but they need a lot of breaks to hang with the three teams ahead of them and aren't in a position to push Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmerman too hard in the second half. The New York Mets are the Orioles of the NL in one aspect -- their division makes them look worse than they actually are -- although I think they're two years from their next winning record.
[h3]NL Central[/h3]
[h4]NL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Reds[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brewers[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cubs[/td][td]73[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pirates[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Houston[/td][td]52[/td][td]110[/td][/tr][/table]
I wouldn't trust Dusty Baker to manage a convenience store, but he's got a substantial amount of talent at his disposal this year, enough to win a weakened division where the Cincinnati Reds' two main rivals lost major offensive cogs this winter. I shaved three wins off the St. Louis Cardinals' total for the injury to Chris Carpenter and my expectation that Adam Wainwright's workload will be limited in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but the front office there has done enough to survive the loss of Albert Pujols. The Milwaukee Brewers seem primed for a fall in offense and run prevention; would they consider moving any of their impending free agents --such as Zack Greinke -- at midseason, even with the reduced prices they'll get under the new collective bargaining agreement? That rule change plus the extra wild card spot creates some strong incentives for teams that should be selling to stay the course or even buy. The Astros won 56 games last year and are worse up and down the roster, even assuming they keep Wandy Rodriguez all year, with no immediate help coming from the farm; it's going to be an ugly summer in Houston, and I don't just mean the traffic and humidity.
[h3]NL West[/h3]
[h4]NL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Diamondbacks[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Giants[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]82[/td][td]80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rockies[/td][td]80[/td][td]82[/td][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.
[h3]Player awards[/h3]
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
I admit I mention Longoria in this space just about every year, but here's a vote for him to finally stay healthy enough to show off all his skills in one season. He can field, get on base, and hit for power; last year's drop in batting average was fluky, and if that returns to at least his previous norm he'll be a top-three player in the league.
NL MVP: Justin Upton
Upton was pretty close to Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun for about two-thirds of the 2011 season, but couldn't quite keep pace and finished fourth in the NL MVP race last year. He's just 24 years old, though, and he's still getting better.
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
This is partly based on the potential for a narrative if Darvish dominates early and "leads" Texas to 90-plus wins, as if they were incapable of doing that without him the last two years. But I do think Darvish has all of the ingredients -- velocity, location, an out pitch (a hard slider), durability, feel -- to be among the top-five starters in the league, along with Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, and the underrated Dan Haren.
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
You can see the headlines now, right? Hamels wins the Cy Young Award in early November, and a week later signs a seven-year, $150-million deal with the Dodgers. He's the third man in the Phillies' rotation but I think he's poised to leapfrog Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee -- both also serious contenders for this award -- and establish a new level of performance for himself going forward.
AL Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish
See above. Matt Moore would be a close second for me, with Jesus Montero third (as I fear Safeco will tamp down his unadjusted stat line). Mike Trout could win this if the Angels get him back to the big leagues early enough this year.
NL Rookie of the Year: Devin Mesoraco
Of course, when Mesoraco goes 1-for-14 in the first week and Dusty decides to bench him for a month, this pick won't look so hot, but the competition in the NL, at least among players who currently have major league jobs, is really thin, with Mesoraco's teammate Zack Cozart, former teammate Yonder Alonso (whose superficial numbers will be hurt by Petco), and whoever Atlanta names its starting shortstop the only other rookies with solid holds on jobs. This could just as easily go to a midseason callup like Trevor Bauer or Bryce Harper.
Is Cain starting to be one of those pitchers who was under the radar and underrated but is now being overrated? I'm starting to feel that way. We'll never know now that he'll be in AT&T for the rest of his peak years.
The crossraods for Joey Votto.
The Pujols effect.
Joey Votto's deal is puzzling.
MLB predictions: divisions and awards.
The crossraods for Joey Votto.
Spoiler [+]
The presumption among rival executives last fall was that the Cincinnati Reds would deal Joey Votto before his trade value declined too much. Cincinnati was at a crossroads in deciding what to do with a young star who is a worthy heir to the legacy of Barry Larkin, Johnny Bench and Pete Rose.
As the 2011-2012 offseason began, the Reds essentially had three ways they could go:
1. They could have followed the path followed by their division rival, the Milwaukee Brewers. In spring training of 2010, the Brewers -- with a budget comparable to that of the Reds, who had a payroll of $81 million last season -- made an offer to Prince Fielder that was comfortable for them, of $100 million over five years.
Fielder rejected that overture, and after the Brewers determined that the slugger's trade value was diminished by his impending free agency, the Brewers opted to keep Fielder through the duration of his existing contract and try to win with him, knowing that he would walk away.
The Brewers made the playoffs in 2011, sold a lot of tickets and chose to not extend themselves into the Alex Rodriguez territory with a new offer to Fielder.
The Reds worked within essentially the same parameters as the Brewers -- and in fact, their challenge became even more acute when the market for first basemen was shook by Albert Pujols's 10-year, $246 million deal, and Fielders nine-year, $214 million contract.
2. The Reds could have followed the conventional path that most executives assumed they would take -- market and then trade Votto. As the winter began, the Reds had a ready-made replacement in place at first base in Yonder Alonso. If Cincinnati had swapped Votto during the winter, two executives said on Monday, they could have reasonably expected to get a package of four to five young players -- two Grade A prospects, a second-tier prospect and two lesser prospects.
By doing this, the Reds would have lost their most marketable and recognizable star, and they also would have avoided a possible collision with the limits of their budget. They would have steered around a pitfall that has hurt other small-market and middle-market teams: The massive investment in one player. The Colorado Rockies were greatly hamstrung for years by committing bid dollars to Todd Helton. Within three years of signing Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year, $252 million deal, the Texas Rangers traded him -- while absorbing 40 percent of his salary -- because his contract was too unwieldy for their budget.
The Minnesota Twins signed Joe Mauer to a $184 million deal in the spring of 2010, and within a year, Mauer was hurt, quickly exposing the inherent risk for a team with a payroll of $100 million to invest so heavily in one player. If you gave the Twins' executives some truth serum today, it'd be interesting to see if they would make the same choice.
Derek Jeter got a 10-year, $189 million with the New York Yankees before the 2001 season, one example of a long-term investment paying off for the team.
3. The Reds had the option of trying to sign Votto to a long-term extension, but in a situation in which the first baseman had all the leverage. He was within 20 months of free agency, the market for first baseman had rocketed, and there was no chance Votto would take a deal unless he had a complete no-trade clause.
As the offseason began, the Reds operated under the knowledge that in four years, they will have a new and presumably much more lucrative television contract in place. They viewed Votto as their Cal Ripken -- an asset that paid off enormously for the Baltimore Orioles, a team with a market similar to that of the Reds.
For the readers: What crossroad would you have taken?
The Reds chose a different path than that of the Brewers and made an extraordinary 12-year investment in Votto; they owe him $251.5 million. From year to year, he will likely account for 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, meaning that a notable decline in his performance, or a debilitating injury, will have a chance to cripple their ability to compete. They also will have a major star to anchor their lineup and present in their next negotiations for a television contract.
I e-mailed some talent evaluators for their reactions to the Votto deal on Monday. Some of the responses:
AL evaluator: "He is one heck of a player. I like the way he plays. At some point this contract will be a drag on a team in a mid-market, but I'm happy for him. Nothing has ever been given to him, he has earned everything in this game."
Longtime evaluator: "It is nuts."
NL evaluator: "It's a lot of money and years, but what was their alternative? If he were to leave it would crush the franchise. I think the new deals for Votto and Matt Cain, as some have mentioned, may be directly correlated to the purchase and purchase price for the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise. James Loney was a borderline non-tender this year and is not a long-term option; if they paired Votto with Matt Kemp they would have a 1-2 punch that might be better -- considering age, athleticism, and defense -- than Detroit's Fielder-Cabrera 1-2 punch. Given what guys like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder have signed for in recent years the money was fair. I think this is more of a case of ownership and GM Walt Jocketty making the commitment they wouldn't let their franchise player walk away -- even if it meant redefining their payroll parameters."
AL evaluator: "This is absolute insanity, but you have to at least like seeing a guy like him stay with his hometown club, even if the risk may outweigh the reward. You wonder if this type of market is at all sustainable. These players are being treated as once-in-a-generation types, which is hard to argue with Pujols, but wow. Astounding."
AL official: "Personally, I think he is among the top two offensive players in baseball, so you do what you have to do to keep him if you can afford it. I am sure it comes with a very sizeable opportunity cost for all future acquisitions."
Think about the extraordinary increase in the first base market in just one year. Adrian Gonzalez signed with the Boston Red Sox a year ago for seven years and $154 million, at a time when he was one season from free agency.
Votto was two years from free agency, and he got about 50 percent more in total dollars than Gonzalez.
The Reds went big to keep Votto, writes Paul Daugherty.
[h3]The Matt Cain deal[/h3]
The bottom line for the San Francisco Giants was this: If they hadn't offered Cain the record-setting deal for a right-handed pitcher, someone else would have. So they made the deal, signing one of baseball's great plow horses. He never complains, he never whines, he just takes the ball and pitches.
I got a lot of tweets in the aftermath of the Cain signing from some citing his 69-73 career record and suggesting that he is not worthy of his contract. I can't think of many other cases -- Felix Hernandez's 2010 season is one -- in which the W-L record is a more imperfect reflection of a pitcher's work than with Cain. He's got a 3.35 ERA and has made 196 starts in the last six seasons, a metronome of 33 starts and 200-plus innings a year. His ERA the last three seasons: 2.89, 3.14, 2.88. He's only 27 years old, and already he could be a working definition for consistency.
This was a win-win for Cain and the Giants.
[h3]The market is set for Cole Hamels[/h3]
Now the Phillies' decision about Hamels has been clearly framed for them by the Cain contract. The market value has been defined.
Hamels is about the same age as Cain, and he could be eligible for free agency in the fall, as Cain was. The only real difference is that Hamels is left-handed and Cain is a righty, and typically, lefties have gotten the largest deals, from CC Sabathia to Cliff Lee to Johan Santana to Barry Zito.
The talks between the Phillies and Hamels have been dormant in recent weeks but can be rekindled with a single phone call. It's hard to imagine, though, that any offer markedly less than what Cain got would have a chance for a deal.
The Phillies have been asking themselves this: Do they want to commit about $70 million annually to three starting pitchers -- and $95 million to four players, if you include Ryan Howard? Can that be a framework that will create success?
If the Phillies don't want to pay Hamels market value, someone else will.
The Yankees will be in a better position to make a pitch for pitchers in a couple of years, writes Joel Sherman.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Cleveland Indians will appeal the Ubaldo Jimenez suspension. If the suspension is dropped after his first start, then the Indians can essentially absorb his absence without much of a blip, because of the placement of an off day.
Ubaldo is wrong and needs to change his approach, writes Terry Pluto.
• Maybe the massive deals we've seen in the last few months -- the labor agreement, the Dodgers' sale, the enormous TV contracts, the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signings, Joey Votto, Matt Cain, etc. -- will end the "baseball is dying" narrative.
• The signings of Fielder and Pujols have had a significant impact on the secondary ticket market, according to Chris Matcovich of TiqIQ.com. He sent along this data:
Top five teams with the highest home average ticket price:
• Red Sox: $151.10
• Cubs: $108.70
• Phillies: $100.71
• Yankees: $90.21
• Nationals: $88.24
Top five teams with the lowest home average ticket price:
• Brewers: $48
• Pirates: $48
• Royals: $48
• Dodgers: $49
• Reds: $54.43
Top five teams with the highest Opening Day ticket price:
• Red Sox: $305.58
• Yankees: $256.54
• Marlins: $255.28
• Cardinals: $248.68
• Rangers: $237.22
Top five games of the year by average price:
• %%!%-Yankees at Red Sox: $508.91
• 7/6-Yankees at Red Sox: $356.42
• 7/7-Yankees at Red Sox: $334.74
• 4/13-Rays at Red Sox: $305.69
• 9/12-Yankees at Red Sox: $277.89
Other interesting ticketing data for the upcoming season:
• As a point of comparison, the Marlins' average ticket price in their inaugural season in their new park ($76.72) is currently 10.81 percent below that of the Twins' when they opened Target Field in 2010 ($86.02)
• The additions of C.J. Wilson and Pujols have caused the Angels' average ticket price to increase 9.52 percent in last year
• The addition of Fielder has caused the Tigers' average ticket price to increase 34.37 percent in last year
• The Dodgers currently rank 27th in the majors in average ticket price
• The Cardinals' average Opening Day ticket price is currently 334.5 percent above the teams' home ticket average, the biggest percentage increase in the season following a World Series in the past three seasons.
• Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox closer, needs surgery. He will see the surgeon today.
You'd have to think that this increases the likelihood that Daniel Bard will eventually move back to the bullpen, because the Red Sox appear much more vulnerable in that part of their team than in the rotation.
• Frank McCourt met with Dodgers employees.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Johnny Damon is looking for an opportunity for about 450 plate appearances, and it figures a chance will come at some point for a player who had 52 extra-base hits, 100 singles and 51 walks last season.
Baltimore, by the way, still does not have a DH. Scott Boras, Damon's agent, wrote in an e-mail in response to a question, "For me, DH is like closing -- many can throw but few can close. Many can hit but few can dh.
"Damon will be signed by May 1st. [We] just don't know where."
2. Michael Pineda's injury altered plans for the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.
3. Jake Arrieta is getting the ball on Opening Day for the Orioles.
4. Nolan Ryan says the Rangers are better off with Josh Hamilton in center.
5. Justin Morneau will open the year as a DH.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Mets' closer is hurting.
2. Sam Fuld is going to have wrist surgery.
3. Corey Hart will be in the lineup on Opening Day.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. With others really struggling this spring, Patrick Corbin may have a chance for a spot with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro writes.
2. Chad Tracy was among those who made the Washington roster.
3. Eric Sogard is impressing with the Oakland Athletics, writes Susan Slusser.
4. The Rays' shortstop situation is coming down to the wire.
5. The Atlanta Braves announced a couple of roster decisions at shortstop and pitcher.
6. Lucas Harrell won a spot in the Houston rotation.
7. The Kansas City Royals are going to match up their catchers with specific pitchers.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Joe Blanton made progress.
2. Felix Hernandez's velocity is down, and he's still dominant.
3. Chris Young mashed his fifth homer.
4. Buster Posey got a huge ovation.
5. Brett Cecil had another bad day.
6. Carlos Zambrano capped an inconsistent first spring.
7. Expectations took stage for Pujols and the Los Angeles Angels. Pujols is shrugging off the pressure, writes Bill Plunkett.
8. The Detroit Tigers trotted out what could be their Opening Day lineup and killed the ball.
9. Francisco Liriano had another good outing.
As the 2011-2012 offseason began, the Reds essentially had three ways they could go:
1. They could have followed the path followed by their division rival, the Milwaukee Brewers. In spring training of 2010, the Brewers -- with a budget comparable to that of the Reds, who had a payroll of $81 million last season -- made an offer to Prince Fielder that was comfortable for them, of $100 million over five years.
Fielder rejected that overture, and after the Brewers determined that the slugger's trade value was diminished by his impending free agency, the Brewers opted to keep Fielder through the duration of his existing contract and try to win with him, knowing that he would walk away.
The Brewers made the playoffs in 2011, sold a lot of tickets and chose to not extend themselves into the Alex Rodriguez territory with a new offer to Fielder.
The Reds worked within essentially the same parameters as the Brewers -- and in fact, their challenge became even more acute when the market for first basemen was shook by Albert Pujols's 10-year, $246 million deal, and Fielders nine-year, $214 million contract.
2. The Reds could have followed the conventional path that most executives assumed they would take -- market and then trade Votto. As the winter began, the Reds had a ready-made replacement in place at first base in Yonder Alonso. If Cincinnati had swapped Votto during the winter, two executives said on Monday, they could have reasonably expected to get a package of four to five young players -- two Grade A prospects, a second-tier prospect and two lesser prospects.
By doing this, the Reds would have lost their most marketable and recognizable star, and they also would have avoided a possible collision with the limits of their budget. They would have steered around a pitfall that has hurt other small-market and middle-market teams: The massive investment in one player. The Colorado Rockies were greatly hamstrung for years by committing bid dollars to Todd Helton. Within three years of signing Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year, $252 million deal, the Texas Rangers traded him -- while absorbing 40 percent of his salary -- because his contract was too unwieldy for their budget.
The Minnesota Twins signed Joe Mauer to a $184 million deal in the spring of 2010, and within a year, Mauer was hurt, quickly exposing the inherent risk for a team with a payroll of $100 million to invest so heavily in one player. If you gave the Twins' executives some truth serum today, it'd be interesting to see if they would make the same choice.
Derek Jeter got a 10-year, $189 million with the New York Yankees before the 2001 season, one example of a long-term investment paying off for the team.
3. The Reds had the option of trying to sign Votto to a long-term extension, but in a situation in which the first baseman had all the leverage. He was within 20 months of free agency, the market for first baseman had rocketed, and there was no chance Votto would take a deal unless he had a complete no-trade clause.
As the offseason began, the Reds operated under the knowledge that in four years, they will have a new and presumably much more lucrative television contract in place. They viewed Votto as their Cal Ripken -- an asset that paid off enormously for the Baltimore Orioles, a team with a market similar to that of the Reds.
For the readers: What crossroad would you have taken?
The Reds chose a different path than that of the Brewers and made an extraordinary 12-year investment in Votto; they owe him $251.5 million. From year to year, he will likely account for 20 to 25 percent of their payroll, meaning that a notable decline in his performance, or a debilitating injury, will have a chance to cripple their ability to compete. They also will have a major star to anchor their lineup and present in their next negotiations for a television contract.
I e-mailed some talent evaluators for their reactions to the Votto deal on Monday. Some of the responses:
AL evaluator: "He is one heck of a player. I like the way he plays. At some point this contract will be a drag on a team in a mid-market, but I'm happy for him. Nothing has ever been given to him, he has earned everything in this game."
Longtime evaluator: "It is nuts."
NL evaluator: "It's a lot of money and years, but what was their alternative? If he were to leave it would crush the franchise. I think the new deals for Votto and Matt Cain, as some have mentioned, may be directly correlated to the purchase and purchase price for the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise. James Loney was a borderline non-tender this year and is not a long-term option; if they paired Votto with Matt Kemp they would have a 1-2 punch that might be better -- considering age, athleticism, and defense -- than Detroit's Fielder-Cabrera 1-2 punch. Given what guys like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Prince Fielder have signed for in recent years the money was fair. I think this is more of a case of ownership and GM Walt Jocketty making the commitment they wouldn't let their franchise player walk away -- even if it meant redefining their payroll parameters."
AL evaluator: "This is absolute insanity, but you have to at least like seeing a guy like him stay with his hometown club, even if the risk may outweigh the reward. You wonder if this type of market is at all sustainable. These players are being treated as once-in-a-generation types, which is hard to argue with Pujols, but wow. Astounding."
AL official: "Personally, I think he is among the top two offensive players in baseball, so you do what you have to do to keep him if you can afford it. I am sure it comes with a very sizeable opportunity cost for all future acquisitions."
Think about the extraordinary increase in the first base market in just one year. Adrian Gonzalez signed with the Boston Red Sox a year ago for seven years and $154 million, at a time when he was one season from free agency.
Votto was two years from free agency, and he got about 50 percent more in total dollars than Gonzalez.
The Reds went big to keep Votto, writes Paul Daugherty.
[h3]The Matt Cain deal[/h3]
The bottom line for the San Francisco Giants was this: If they hadn't offered Cain the record-setting deal for a right-handed pitcher, someone else would have. So they made the deal, signing one of baseball's great plow horses. He never complains, he never whines, he just takes the ball and pitches.
I got a lot of tweets in the aftermath of the Cain signing from some citing his 69-73 career record and suggesting that he is not worthy of his contract. I can't think of many other cases -- Felix Hernandez's 2010 season is one -- in which the W-L record is a more imperfect reflection of a pitcher's work than with Cain. He's got a 3.35 ERA and has made 196 starts in the last six seasons, a metronome of 33 starts and 200-plus innings a year. His ERA the last three seasons: 2.89, 3.14, 2.88. He's only 27 years old, and already he could be a working definition for consistency.
This was a win-win for Cain and the Giants.
[h3]The market is set for Cole Hamels[/h3]
Now the Phillies' decision about Hamels has been clearly framed for them by the Cain contract. The market value has been defined.
Hamels is about the same age as Cain, and he could be eligible for free agency in the fall, as Cain was. The only real difference is that Hamels is left-handed and Cain is a righty, and typically, lefties have gotten the largest deals, from CC Sabathia to Cliff Lee to Johan Santana to Barry Zito.
The talks between the Phillies and Hamels have been dormant in recent weeks but can be rekindled with a single phone call. It's hard to imagine, though, that any offer markedly less than what Cain got would have a chance for a deal.
The Phillies have been asking themselves this: Do they want to commit about $70 million annually to three starting pitchers -- and $95 million to four players, if you include Ryan Howard? Can that be a framework that will create success?
If the Phillies don't want to pay Hamels market value, someone else will.
The Yankees will be in a better position to make a pitch for pitchers in a couple of years, writes Joel Sherman.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Cleveland Indians will appeal the Ubaldo Jimenez suspension. If the suspension is dropped after his first start, then the Indians can essentially absorb his absence without much of a blip, because of the placement of an off day.
Ubaldo is wrong and needs to change his approach, writes Terry Pluto.
• Maybe the massive deals we've seen in the last few months -- the labor agreement, the Dodgers' sale, the enormous TV contracts, the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder signings, Joey Votto, Matt Cain, etc. -- will end the "baseball is dying" narrative.
• The signings of Fielder and Pujols have had a significant impact on the secondary ticket market, according to Chris Matcovich of TiqIQ.com. He sent along this data:
Top five teams with the highest home average ticket price:
• Red Sox: $151.10
• Cubs: $108.70
• Phillies: $100.71
• Yankees: $90.21
• Nationals: $88.24
Top five teams with the lowest home average ticket price:
• Brewers: $48
• Pirates: $48
• Royals: $48
• Dodgers: $49
• Reds: $54.43
Top five teams with the highest Opening Day ticket price:
• Red Sox: $305.58
• Yankees: $256.54
• Marlins: $255.28
• Cardinals: $248.68
• Rangers: $237.22
Top five games of the year by average price:
• %%!%-Yankees at Red Sox: $508.91
• 7/6-Yankees at Red Sox: $356.42
• 7/7-Yankees at Red Sox: $334.74
• 4/13-Rays at Red Sox: $305.69
• 9/12-Yankees at Red Sox: $277.89
Other interesting ticketing data for the upcoming season:
• As a point of comparison, the Marlins' average ticket price in their inaugural season in their new park ($76.72) is currently 10.81 percent below that of the Twins' when they opened Target Field in 2010 ($86.02)
• The additions of C.J. Wilson and Pujols have caused the Angels' average ticket price to increase 9.52 percent in last year
• The addition of Fielder has caused the Tigers' average ticket price to increase 34.37 percent in last year
• The Dodgers currently rank 27th in the majors in average ticket price
• The Cardinals' average Opening Day ticket price is currently 334.5 percent above the teams' home ticket average, the biggest percentage increase in the season following a World Series in the past three seasons.
• Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox closer, needs surgery. He will see the surgeon today.
You'd have to think that this increases the likelihood that Daniel Bard will eventually move back to the bullpen, because the Red Sox appear much more vulnerable in that part of their team than in the rotation.
• Frank McCourt met with Dodgers employees.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Johnny Damon is looking for an opportunity for about 450 plate appearances, and it figures a chance will come at some point for a player who had 52 extra-base hits, 100 singles and 51 walks last season.
Baltimore, by the way, still does not have a DH. Scott Boras, Damon's agent, wrote in an e-mail in response to a question, "For me, DH is like closing -- many can throw but few can close. Many can hit but few can dh.
"Damon will be signed by May 1st. [We] just don't know where."
2. Michael Pineda's injury altered plans for the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.
3. Jake Arrieta is getting the ball on Opening Day for the Orioles.
4. Nolan Ryan says the Rangers are better off with Josh Hamilton in center.
5. Justin Morneau will open the year as a DH.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Mets' closer is hurting.
2. Sam Fuld is going to have wrist surgery.
3. Corey Hart will be in the lineup on Opening Day.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. With others really struggling this spring, Patrick Corbin may have a chance for a spot with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro writes.
2. Chad Tracy was among those who made the Washington roster.
3. Eric Sogard is impressing with the Oakland Athletics, writes Susan Slusser.
4. The Rays' shortstop situation is coming down to the wire.
5. The Atlanta Braves announced a couple of roster decisions at shortstop and pitcher.
6. Lucas Harrell won a spot in the Houston rotation.
7. The Kansas City Royals are going to match up their catchers with specific pitchers.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Joe Blanton made progress.
2. Felix Hernandez's velocity is down, and he's still dominant.
3. Chris Young mashed his fifth homer.
4. Buster Posey got a huge ovation.
5. Brett Cecil had another bad day.
6. Carlos Zambrano capped an inconsistent first spring.
7. Expectations took stage for Pujols and the Los Angeles Angels. Pujols is shrugging off the pressure, writes Bill Plunkett.
8. The Detroit Tigers trotted out what could be their Opening Day lineup and killed the ball.
9. Francisco Liriano had another good outing.
The Pujols effect.
Spoiler [+]
Albert Pujols has been at or near the center of the baseball universe for more than a decade, and his leaving the St. Louis Cardinals after their World Series triumph to join the Los Angeles Angels was one of the biggest, if not the biggest, stories of baseball's offseason.
But as good as Pujols is -- and he is very, very, very good -- he is only one man, and one player can have only so much impact on a team's win total. However, you wouldn't know that from looking at the Week 1 MLB Power Rankings, where the Angels come in much higher than they should have (No. 3) and the Cardinals come in a bit lower than they deserve (No. 9).
Let's start with the Angels. They have three of the best starters in Major League Baseball in Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson, and one of the game's best hitters in Pujols. Unfortunately, they have little offensive firepower behind him -- the Angels' .314 wOBA ranked just 16th in the majors last year -- and Pujols can't fix that all by himself. For starters, Pujols is not the hitter he once was. In 2008, he posted a wOBA of .458. In the three years since, his wOBA has been .449, .420 and .385. That's not a promising trend. Of the six projections that FanGraphs lists for him, the most generous has him at a .422 wOBA, which would narrowly edge out his rookie season for his seventh-best season mark. He is still among the best hitters in the game, but the gap between him and the field has shrunk.
Although Pujols may have come back to the pack across the game, though, he will be far and away the Angels' best hitter. If you break out Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections by team, you see that the only Angels hitter who ranks in the top 50 in wOBA is Pujols. The next-best Angels hitter comes in at 95th place, and his name is Mike Trout. You may remember Trout as the dynamic, five-tool player whom Keith Law ranks as the game's top prospect and the Angels sent to Triple-A to start the season. Next up, ranking 138th, is Torii Hunter. That's precious little firepower.
By comparison, the Yankees have six hitters who are projected in the top 50 in wOBA; the Red Sox have five; the Rangers have four (with Adrian Beltre projected at 54th). The Rays have two in the top 50 and four more projected ahead of Hunter. Even the top-heavy Tigers have four hitters projected in the top 100. Now, every projection system has its quirks, and none is infallible, but scan any projection system, and you are likely to find similar forecasts.
The Angels should be lauded for having the wherewithal to sign Pujols and Wilson this winter. But baseball is played by 25 men, and the team has little that it can bank on behind Pujols. If the Angels get Trout up quickly and Kendrys Morales hits like he did in 2009, the Halos could have a top-10 offense, but at this time, saying that they do or ranking them third overall is a stretch.
Just as we can't jump to conclusions and say that the Angels will be totes amazeballs because they landed Pujols, we also shouldn't drop the Cardinals too far because they lost him. Per FanGraphs, the Cardinals derived 5.1 wins above replacement from Pujols in 2011. His replacement in the lineup, Carlos Beltran, generated a 4.7 WAR. That may be Pujols at his worst and Beltran at his best in recent years, but there isn't a whole lot of difference in the performance of those two players last season.
Two more mitigating factors reflect positively on St. Louis and make the Beltran-Pujols comparison a wash for the Cards. First, if Beltran or first baseman Lance Berkman needs to rest his legs for a day, Allen Craig is a more-than-adequate backup. Craig was used sparingly before his star turn in September and the postseason -- for the season, he accumulated just 219 plate appearances -- and getting his bat into the lineup more frequently will be a positive. Second, getting Berkman back to first base where he belongs will help the team's defense. Berkman has never been much of an outfielder, and he shouldn't be nearly as much of a butcher stationed back at first base.
The Cardinals have other positives as well. They hope to get full seasons of Adam Wainwright and Rafael Furcal. Lance Lynn should be an adequate replacement for Chris Carpenter while he is on the shelf (ZiPS projects a healthy 3.83 FIP for Lynn), and prospect Shelby Miller could make for a Tim Lincecum-like midseason replacement if needed. And save Lynn, the Cardinals' bullpen that posted a 3.40 fielding-independent pitching from July through the end of the season returns nearly all of its principals.
Pujols is a great player and is in the very short conversation for best player of the aughts. But he is not a miracle worker. He can't save the Angels' offense all by himself, and with Beltran in the fold, the Cardinals won't miss him as much as many think.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005 and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
But as good as Pujols is -- and he is very, very, very good -- he is only one man, and one player can have only so much impact on a team's win total. However, you wouldn't know that from looking at the Week 1 MLB Power Rankings, where the Angels come in much higher than they should have (No. 3) and the Cardinals come in a bit lower than they deserve (No. 9).
Let's start with the Angels. They have three of the best starters in Major League Baseball in Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson, and one of the game's best hitters in Pujols. Unfortunately, they have little offensive firepower behind him -- the Angels' .314 wOBA ranked just 16th in the majors last year -- and Pujols can't fix that all by himself. For starters, Pujols is not the hitter he once was. In 2008, he posted a wOBA of .458. In the three years since, his wOBA has been .449, .420 and .385. That's not a promising trend. Of the six projections that FanGraphs lists for him, the most generous has him at a .422 wOBA, which would narrowly edge out his rookie season for his seventh-best season mark. He is still among the best hitters in the game, but the gap between him and the field has shrunk.
Although Pujols may have come back to the pack across the game, though, he will be far and away the Angels' best hitter. If you break out Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections by team, you see that the only Angels hitter who ranks in the top 50 in wOBA is Pujols. The next-best Angels hitter comes in at 95th place, and his name is Mike Trout. You may remember Trout as the dynamic, five-tool player whom Keith Law ranks as the game's top prospect and the Angels sent to Triple-A to start the season. Next up, ranking 138th, is Torii Hunter. That's precious little firepower.
By comparison, the Yankees have six hitters who are projected in the top 50 in wOBA; the Red Sox have five; the Rangers have four (with Adrian Beltre projected at 54th). The Rays have two in the top 50 and four more projected ahead of Hunter. Even the top-heavy Tigers have four hitters projected in the top 100. Now, every projection system has its quirks, and none is infallible, but scan any projection system, and you are likely to find similar forecasts.
The Angels should be lauded for having the wherewithal to sign Pujols and Wilson this winter. But baseball is played by 25 men, and the team has little that it can bank on behind Pujols. If the Angels get Trout up quickly and Kendrys Morales hits like he did in 2009, the Halos could have a top-10 offense, but at this time, saying that they do or ranking them third overall is a stretch.
Just as we can't jump to conclusions and say that the Angels will be totes amazeballs because they landed Pujols, we also shouldn't drop the Cardinals too far because they lost him. Per FanGraphs, the Cardinals derived 5.1 wins above replacement from Pujols in 2011. His replacement in the lineup, Carlos Beltran, generated a 4.7 WAR. That may be Pujols at his worst and Beltran at his best in recent years, but there isn't a whole lot of difference in the performance of those two players last season.
Two more mitigating factors reflect positively on St. Louis and make the Beltran-Pujols comparison a wash for the Cards. First, if Beltran or first baseman Lance Berkman needs to rest his legs for a day, Allen Craig is a more-than-adequate backup. Craig was used sparingly before his star turn in September and the postseason -- for the season, he accumulated just 219 plate appearances -- and getting his bat into the lineup more frequently will be a positive. Second, getting Berkman back to first base where he belongs will help the team's defense. Berkman has never been much of an outfielder, and he shouldn't be nearly as much of a butcher stationed back at first base.
The Cardinals have other positives as well. They hope to get full seasons of Adam Wainwright and Rafael Furcal. Lance Lynn should be an adequate replacement for Chris Carpenter while he is on the shelf (ZiPS projects a healthy 3.83 FIP for Lynn), and prospect Shelby Miller could make for a Tim Lincecum-like midseason replacement if needed. And save Lynn, the Cardinals' bullpen that posted a 3.40 fielding-independent pitching from July through the end of the season returns nearly all of its principals.
Pujols is a great player and is in the very short conversation for best player of the aughts. But he is not a miracle worker. He can't save the Angels' offense all by himself, and with Beltran in the fold, the Cardinals won't miss him as much as many think.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005 and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Joey Votto's deal is puzzling.
Spoiler [+]
In giving Joey Votto what we are reporting is a 10-year, $225 million extension, the Reds make what I can only assume is a panic signing, a full year and a half before free agency. It's an extension they almost certainly will regret before it reaches its halfway point.
Scott Rovak/US PresswireThe money corner.
The Votto extension follows on the heels of two other massive deals handed out to first basemen -- deals that commit to players deep into their 30s -- but while three wrongs might make a trend, it doesn't make the philosophy sane. The Albert Pujols (Angels) and Prince Fielder (Tigers) deals didn't actually make sense, but at least they were signed by large-payroll clubs playing in large markets. Votto's 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the back half of this deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack.
The Reds already had Votto under contract for 2012 and 2013 at well-below-market salaries, so the extension won't begin in earnest until his age-30 season, by which point Votto will most likely have already peaked, meaning he'll spend virtually the entire extension declining from his peak. Granted, that peak -- about seven wins above replacement a year, per FanGraphs -- is extremely high, meaning Votto likely will still be a valuable player for the next four or five years, but he's also a slow-footed first baseman, one of the worst-aging categories of players. His value likely will drop by half before the extension is halfway through, perhaps sooner given the propensity of position players to miss more time due to injuries in their 30s.
The Reds' payroll last year was just more than $80 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, so while we'd expect that to rise with industry inflation, Votto is likely to account for roughly 20 percent of the team's payroll once the extension kicks in, while providing ever-declining value on the field. The Cincinnati farm system is only middle of the road and after Devon Mesoraco has a gap before the next likely impact player arrives, meaning the Reds' window to win is probably now and 2013 but could start to close quickly after that.
I actually like Votto's chances to minimize the albatross years more than Fielder's or Pujols' chances, but that doesn't mean this deal makes any sense for the Reds. The history of deals this long is ugly. The history of corner position players playing into their mid- to late 30s is ugly. And the team isn't likely to ever run a payroll so high that carrying Votto while he's returning 50 cents on the dollar isn't a big deal.
The Votto extension follows on the heels of two other massive deals handed out to first basemen -- deals that commit to players deep into their 30s -- but while three wrongs might make a trend, it doesn't make the philosophy sane. The Albert Pujols (Angels) and Prince Fielder (Tigers) deals didn't actually make sense, but at least they were signed by large-payroll clubs playing in large markets. Votto's 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the back half of this deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack.
The Reds already had Votto under contract for 2012 and 2013 at well-below-market salaries, so the extension won't begin in earnest until his age-30 season, by which point Votto will most likely have already peaked, meaning he'll spend virtually the entire extension declining from his peak. Granted, that peak -- about seven wins above replacement a year, per FanGraphs -- is extremely high, meaning Votto likely will still be a valuable player for the next four or five years, but he's also a slow-footed first baseman, one of the worst-aging categories of players. His value likely will drop by half before the extension is halfway through, perhaps sooner given the propensity of position players to miss more time due to injuries in their 30s.
The Reds' payroll last year was just more than $80 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, so while we'd expect that to rise with industry inflation, Votto is likely to account for roughly 20 percent of the team's payroll once the extension kicks in, while providing ever-declining value on the field. The Cincinnati farm system is only middle of the road and after Devon Mesoraco has a gap before the next likely impact player arrives, meaning the Reds' window to win is probably now and 2013 but could start to close quickly after that.
I actually like Votto's chances to minimize the albatross years more than Fielder's or Pujols' chances, but that doesn't mean this deal makes any sense for the Reds. The history of deals this long is ugly. The history of corner position players playing into their mid- to late 30s is ugly. And the team isn't likely to ever run a payroll so high that carrying Votto while he's returning 50 cents on the dollar isn't a big deal.
MLB predictions: divisions and awards.
Spoiler [+]
As usual, I've sketched out my win-loss predictions for all 30 teams and winners for the six major postseason awards. Usually, I find it's easy to pick a few teams I think will run away from their respective packs -- which isn't to say I've had any great success in doing so -- but this year feels more compressed than the typical season, especially in the two East divisions. It likely won't play out that way, of course, but I could make compelling arguments for four teams in the AL East to win their divisions, and at least three in the NL East to do the same. Awards predictions follow the division picks.
Here are the picks for 2012:
[h3]AL East[/h3]
[h4]AL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Yankees[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rays[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Red Sox[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]85[/td][td]77[/td][/tr][tr][td]Orioles[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Aside from Baltimore -- not a 90-loss team in any other division but this one, and still featuring enough interesting players that you want to watch them -- the biggest gap between any two teams in this division is between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays, which isn't that big of a gap to begin with. I like the Blue Jays' depth, I think their rotation is a little underrated, I see plenty of bounceback candidates up and down that roster without many big regression candidates, and I think the front office is motivated to add talent during the season if they're close to a playoff spot. As for the top three clubs, even with Michael Pineda's spring struggles, the New York Yankees still line up as the best team top to bottom, and all the focus on Pineda has meant the addition of Hiroki Kuroda has flown under the radar. The Red Sox have the most questions and the least depth of the contenders here, and I'm also skeptical of Daniel Bard's ability to turn over AL lineups three times, especially those with a lot of left-handed hitters.
[h3]AL Central[/h3]
[h4]AL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tigers[/td][td]95[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Indians[/td][td]78[/td][td]84[/td][/tr][tr][td]Twins[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]67[/td][td]95[/td][/tr][/table]
The Detroit Tigers seem to me to be the team most likely to run away with its division, even with a top-heavy roster that doesn't give them a lot of options if any major piece in the lineup or rotation should miss a significant chunk of time; there just isn't another club in the division that's close to them. The Kansas City Royals' run prevention should improve this year thanks to the best defense they've run out there in ages, and I think Eric Hosmer is primed for a big breakout season. The Cleveland Indians had a lot of things go right last year that won't repeat in 2012, but their falloff will be mitigated by improvements from two of Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, and Michael Brantley. The Minnesota Twins' performance this year largely hinges on the health of their two best players, which is a better question for the doctors (or Stephania Bell) than it is for me. The White Sox aren't a 95-loss team on paper right now, but I expect they'll look to move another veteran or two as the season goes on and things could get ugly on the South Side.
[h3]AL West[/h3]
[h4]AL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][tr][td]A's[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Bottom line: The top two teams here will make the playoffs, the bottom two won't. I like the top of the Los Angeles Angels' roster better than I like the Texas Rangers', but the Rangers have a lot more pitching depth to get through the season; the Angels have four MLB-worthy starters in their entire organization right now, and they need 120 or so starts from them. The Seattle Mariners have made some progress, and I think their offense will get out of the "worst of all time" discussion with a full season of Dustin Ackley, a healthy Justin Smoak, and the arrival of Jesus Montero, but there isn't much more help coming from the farm this year. The Oakland A's have Yoenis Cespedes and a lot of fun young arms, but they're back at the start of another three-year rebuilding cycle.
[h3]NL East[/h3]
[h4]NL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Marlins[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
I see flawed baseball teams. The top three teams in this division all look like hollow contenders -- they have the right shell, but once you crack that open there's less inside than you expected to find. The Philadelphia Phillies have three aces in their rotation and far less offense than any roster they've run out there since their run of contention began. The Atlanta Braves have stars and depth in their rotation, one of the majors' best bullpens, and a few breakout/bounceback candidates in the lineup (Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward in particular), but several incurable holes in the lineup and a lot of risk after that 'pen was overworked last year. The Miami Marlins' attempts to buy a contender with public money might work, but the whole looks like less than the sum of its parts to me, due again to lack of depth and nothing ready to help from the farm this year. The Washington Nationals are a popular darkhorse, and in the NL Central I might buy it, but they need a lot of breaks to hang with the three teams ahead of them and aren't in a position to push Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmerman too hard in the second half. The New York Mets are the Orioles of the NL in one aspect -- their division makes them look worse than they actually are -- although I think they're two years from their next winning record.
[h3]NL Central[/h3]
[h4]NL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Reds[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brewers[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cubs[/td][td]73[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pirates[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Houston[/td][td]52[/td][td]110[/td][/tr][/table]
I wouldn't trust Dusty Baker to manage a convenience store, but he's got a substantial amount of talent at his disposal this year, enough to win a weakened division where the Cincinnati Reds' two main rivals lost major offensive cogs this winter. I shaved three wins off the St. Louis Cardinals' total for the injury to Chris Carpenter and my expectation that Adam Wainwright's workload will be limited in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but the front office there has done enough to survive the loss of Albert Pujols. The Milwaukee Brewers seem primed for a fall in offense and run prevention; would they consider moving any of their impending free agents --such as Zack Greinke -- at midseason, even with the reduced prices they'll get under the new collective bargaining agreement? That rule change plus the extra wild card spot creates some strong incentives for teams that should be selling to stay the course or even buy. The Astros won 56 games last year and are worse up and down the roster, even assuming they keep Wandy Rodriguez all year, with no immediate help coming from the farm; it's going to be an ugly summer in Houston, and I don't just mean the traffic and humidity.
[h3]NL West[/h3]
[h4]NL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Diamondbacks[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Giants[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]82[/td][td]80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rockies[/td][td]80[/td][td]82[/td][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.
[h3]Player awards[/h3]
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
I admit I mention Longoria in this space just about every year, but here's a vote for him to finally stay healthy enough to show off all his skills in one season. He can field, get on base, and hit for power; last year's drop in batting average was fluky, and if that returns to at least his previous norm he'll be a top-three player in the league.
NL MVP: Justin Upton
Upton was pretty close to Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun for about two-thirds of the 2011 season, but couldn't quite keep pace and finished fourth in the NL MVP race last year. He's just 24 years old, though, and he's still getting better.
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
This is partly based on the potential for a narrative if Darvish dominates early and "leads" Texas to 90-plus wins, as if they were incapable of doing that without him the last two years. But I do think Darvish has all of the ingredients -- velocity, location, an out pitch (a hard slider), durability, feel -- to be among the top-five starters in the league, along with Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, and the underrated Dan Haren.
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
You can see the headlines now, right? Hamels wins the Cy Young Award in early November, and a week later signs a seven-year, $150-million deal with the Dodgers. He's the third man in the Phillies' rotation but I think he's poised to leapfrog Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee -- both also serious contenders for this award -- and establish a new level of performance for himself going forward.
AL Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish
See above. Matt Moore would be a close second for me, with Jesus Montero third (as I fear Safeco will tamp down his unadjusted stat line). Mike Trout could win this if the Angels get him back to the big leagues early enough this year.
NL Rookie of the Year: Devin Mesoraco
Of course, when Mesoraco goes 1-for-14 in the first week and Dusty decides to bench him for a month, this pick won't look so hot, but the competition in the NL, at least among players who currently have major league jobs, is really thin, with Mesoraco's teammate Zack Cozart, former teammate Yonder Alonso (whose superficial numbers will be hurt by Petco), and whoever Atlanta names its starting shortstop the only other rookies with solid holds on jobs. This could just as easily go to a midseason callup like Trevor Bauer or Bryce Harper.
Here are the picks for 2012:
[h3]AL East[/h3]
[h4]AL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Yankees[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rays[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Red Sox[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][/tr][tr][td]Blue Jays[/td][td]85[/td][td]77[/td][/tr][tr][td]Orioles[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Aside from Baltimore -- not a 90-loss team in any other division but this one, and still featuring enough interesting players that you want to watch them -- the biggest gap between any two teams in this division is between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays, which isn't that big of a gap to begin with. I like the Blue Jays' depth, I think their rotation is a little underrated, I see plenty of bounceback candidates up and down that roster without many big regression candidates, and I think the front office is motivated to add talent during the season if they're close to a playoff spot. As for the top three clubs, even with Michael Pineda's spring struggles, the New York Yankees still line up as the best team top to bottom, and all the focus on Pineda has meant the addition of Hiroki Kuroda has flown under the radar. The Red Sox have the most questions and the least depth of the contenders here, and I'm also skeptical of Daniel Bard's ability to turn over AL lineups three times, especially those with a lot of left-handed hitters.
[h3]AL Central[/h3]
[h4]AL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tigers[/td][td]95[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Royals[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Indians[/td][td]78[/td][td]84[/td][/tr][tr][td]Twins[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]White Sox[/td][td]67[/td][td]95[/td][/tr][/table]
The Detroit Tigers seem to me to be the team most likely to run away with its division, even with a top-heavy roster that doesn't give them a lot of options if any major piece in the lineup or rotation should miss a significant chunk of time; there just isn't another club in the division that's close to them. The Kansas City Royals' run prevention should improve this year thanks to the best defense they've run out there in ages, and I think Eric Hosmer is primed for a big breakout season. The Cleveland Indians had a lot of things go right last year that won't repeat in 2012, but their falloff will be mitigated by improvements from two of Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, and Michael Brantley. The Minnesota Twins' performance this year largely hinges on the health of their two best players, which is a better question for the doctors (or Stephania Bell) than it is for me. The White Sox aren't a 95-loss team on paper right now, but I expect they'll look to move another veteran or two as the season goes on and things could get ugly on the South Side.
[h3]AL West[/h3]
[h4]AL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]93[/td][td]69[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angels[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mariners[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][tr][td]A's[/td][td]68[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][/table]
Bottom line: The top two teams here will make the playoffs, the bottom two won't. I like the top of the Los Angeles Angels' roster better than I like the Texas Rangers', but the Rangers have a lot more pitching depth to get through the season; the Angels have four MLB-worthy starters in their entire organization right now, and they need 120 or so starts from them. The Seattle Mariners have made some progress, and I think their offense will get out of the "worst of all time" discussion with a full season of Dustin Ackley, a healthy Justin Smoak, and the arrival of Jesus Montero, but there isn't much more help coming from the farm this year. The Oakland A's have Yoenis Cespedes and a lot of fun young arms, but they're back at the start of another three-year rebuilding cycle.
[h3]NL East[/h3]
[h4]NL East[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Braves[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Marlins[/td][td]88[/td][td]74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nationals[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
I see flawed baseball teams. The top three teams in this division all look like hollow contenders -- they have the right shell, but once you crack that open there's less inside than you expected to find. The Philadelphia Phillies have three aces in their rotation and far less offense than any roster they've run out there since their run of contention began. The Atlanta Braves have stars and depth in their rotation, one of the majors' best bullpens, and a few breakout/bounceback candidates in the lineup (Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward in particular), but several incurable holes in the lineup and a lot of risk after that 'pen was overworked last year. The Miami Marlins' attempts to buy a contender with public money might work, but the whole looks like less than the sum of its parts to me, due again to lack of depth and nothing ready to help from the farm this year. The Washington Nationals are a popular darkhorse, and in the NL Central I might buy it, but they need a lot of breaks to hang with the three teams ahead of them and aren't in a position to push Stephen Strasburg or Jordan Zimmerman too hard in the second half. The New York Mets are the Orioles of the NL in one aspect -- their division makes them look worse than they actually are -- although I think they're two years from their next winning record.
[h3]NL Central[/h3]
[h4]NL Central[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Reds[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cardinals[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brewers[/td][td]81[/td][td]81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cubs[/td][td]73[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pirates[/td][td]70[/td][td]92[/td][/tr][tr][td]Houston[/td][td]52[/td][td]110[/td][/tr][/table]
I wouldn't trust Dusty Baker to manage a convenience store, but he's got a substantial amount of talent at his disposal this year, enough to win a weakened division where the Cincinnati Reds' two main rivals lost major offensive cogs this winter. I shaved three wins off the St. Louis Cardinals' total for the injury to Chris Carpenter and my expectation that Adam Wainwright's workload will be limited in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but the front office there has done enough to survive the loss of Albert Pujols. The Milwaukee Brewers seem primed for a fall in offense and run prevention; would they consider moving any of their impending free agents --such as Zack Greinke -- at midseason, even with the reduced prices they'll get under the new collective bargaining agreement? That rule change plus the extra wild card spot creates some strong incentives for teams that should be selling to stay the course or even buy. The Astros won 56 games last year and are worse up and down the roster, even assuming they keep Wandy Rodriguez all year, with no immediate help coming from the farm; it's going to be an ugly summer in Houston, and I don't just mean the traffic and humidity.
[h3]NL West[/h3]
[h4]NL West[/h4]
Projected wins and losses in 2012.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][/tr][tr][td]Diamondbacks[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][/tr][tr][td]Giants[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]82[/td][td]80[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rockies[/td][td]80[/td][td]82[/td][/tr][tr][td]Padres[/td][td]72[/td][td]90[/td][/tr][/table]
The Arizona Diamondbacks are far from invincible, and they'll have to survive some self-inflicted wounds (Jason Kubel over Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders over Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs), but I'll still take them over the San Francisco Giants and their own self-inflicted wounds (locking Brandon Belt in the dungeon). That San Francisco offense is going to be among the worst in baseball again, and the D-backs don't have a weakness that glaring but have the depth to make some midstream changes if need be.
[h3]Player awards[/h3]
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
I admit I mention Longoria in this space just about every year, but here's a vote for him to finally stay healthy enough to show off all his skills in one season. He can field, get on base, and hit for power; last year's drop in batting average was fluky, and if that returns to at least his previous norm he'll be a top-three player in the league.
NL MVP: Justin Upton
Upton was pretty close to Matt Kemp and Ryan Braun for about two-thirds of the 2011 season, but couldn't quite keep pace and finished fourth in the NL MVP race last year. He's just 24 years old, though, and he's still getting better.
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
This is partly based on the potential for a narrative if Darvish dominates early and "leads" Texas to 90-plus wins, as if they were incapable of doing that without him the last two years. But I do think Darvish has all of the ingredients -- velocity, location, an out pitch (a hard slider), durability, feel -- to be among the top-five starters in the league, along with Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, and the underrated Dan Haren.
NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels
You can see the headlines now, right? Hamels wins the Cy Young Award in early November, and a week later signs a seven-year, $150-million deal with the Dodgers. He's the third man in the Phillies' rotation but I think he's poised to leapfrog Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee -- both also serious contenders for this award -- and establish a new level of performance for himself going forward.
AL Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish
See above. Matt Moore would be a close second for me, with Jesus Montero third (as I fear Safeco will tamp down his unadjusted stat line). Mike Trout could win this if the Angels get him back to the big leagues early enough this year.
NL Rookie of the Year: Devin Mesoraco
Of course, when Mesoraco goes 1-for-14 in the first week and Dusty decides to bench him for a month, this pick won't look so hot, but the competition in the NL, at least among players who currently have major league jobs, is really thin, with Mesoraco's teammate Zack Cozart, former teammate Yonder Alonso (whose superficial numbers will be hurt by Petco), and whoever Atlanta names its starting shortstop the only other rookies with solid holds on jobs. This could just as easily go to a midseason callup like Trevor Bauer or Bryce Harper.
2012 Organizational Rankings: #14 – Chicago Cubs.
Spoiler [+]
Chicago’s 2011 Ranking: #19
2012 Outlook: 35 (28th)
Two notable items: (1) The Chicago Cubs have the best Revenue rank and Operations rank of all the teams listed so far, but the third-worst 2012 Outlook. And (2) their rounded overall rating (50) is the same as the two preceding clubs, as well as the next (unseen) club — call it the Mystery Team. So there are four teams stuck at average, or a 50 rating.
For the Cubs, being average is bad. Boasting one of the oldest franchises and one of the oldest dry spells, the Cubs and their fans eagerly await a return to the dominant days of Moredcai “Three Finger
2012 Outlook: 35 (28th)
Two notable items: (1) The Chicago Cubs have the best Revenue rank and Operations rank of all the teams listed so far, but the third-worst 2012 Outlook. And (2) their rounded overall rating (50) is the same as the two preceding clubs, as well as the next (unseen) club — call it the Mystery Team. So there are four teams stuck at average, or a 50 rating.
For the Cubs, being average is bad. Boasting one of the oldest franchises and one of the oldest dry spells, the Cubs and their fans eagerly await a return to the dominant days of Moredcai “Three Finger
2012 Organizational Rankings: #14 – Chicago Cubs.
Spoiler [+]
Chicago’s 2011 Ranking: #19
2012 Outlook: 35 (28th)
Two notable items: (1) The Chicago Cubs have the best Revenue rank and Operations rank of all the teams listed so far, but the third-worst 2012 Outlook. And (2) their rounded overall rating (50) is the same as the two preceding clubs, as well as the next (unseen) club — call it the Mystery Team. So there are four teams stuck at average, or a 50 rating.
For the Cubs, being average is bad. Boasting one of the oldest franchises and one of the oldest dry spells, the Cubs and their fans eagerly await a return to the dominant days of Moredcai “Three Finger
2012 Outlook: 35 (28th)
Two notable items: (1) The Chicago Cubs have the best Revenue rank and Operations rank of all the teams listed so far, but the third-worst 2012 Outlook. And (2) their rounded overall rating (50) is the same as the two preceding clubs, as well as the next (unseen) club — call it the Mystery Team. So there are four teams stuck at average, or a 50 rating.
For the Cubs, being average is bad. Boasting one of the oldest franchises and one of the oldest dry spells, the Cubs and their fans eagerly await a return to the dominant days of Moredcai “Three Finger
They are. The HR/FB combined with the FB% rate is just scary in a good way. If he keeps it that low, I'll be shocked. How long can he keep beating the odds and his peripheral stats? It's a risky move for the Giants. I'll say the same thing if/when they give Lincecum and even bigger deal. Cain made the right choice. That park plays very well to his strengths and the NL West has 3 parks like that. Kinda like Weaver did in LA.
They are. The HR/FB combined with the FB% rate is just scary in a good way. If he keeps it that low, I'll be shocked. How long can he keep beating the odds and his peripheral stats? It's a risky move for the Giants. I'll say the same thing if/when they give Lincecum and even bigger deal. Cain made the right choice. That park plays very well to his strengths and the NL West has 3 parks like that. Kinda like Weaver did in LA.
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