Wieland Gets Call to The Show.
Fredi Gonzalez’s Decision-Making Is Not Helping the Braves.
Spoiler [+]
Every player processes the news of their first big league call up differently. Some whoop and holler. Some suppress the excitement and act as if they expected it all along.
Right-hander Joe Wieland, however, experienced an outpouring of emotion in the Tucson Padres dugout when he learned of his promotion to the Padres’ big league club. He broke down crying and began hugging all of his teammates that surrounded him.
Wieland is expected to make his first major league start on Saturday evening on the road against a division rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The 22-year-old pitcher came to the Padres organization last season from Texas in the Mike Adams trade. His stuff will not overpower anyone, but his command and pitchability have always been well above average on the mound. In fact, at the time of the trade last summer, Wieland had only walked four batters in 85.2 innings for Myrtle Beach, Texas’ High-A affiliate in the California League, and had struck out 96.
He features a high-80s, low-90s fastball that comes at the opposing batter relatively straight. Last fall, his fastball reportedly touched 94-95 MPH, but it generally sits a few ticks lower on the gun. Because the pitch lacks significantly life, Wieland relies on changing speeds and spotting the fastball on the corners with precision. Baseball America writes in their 2012 Prospect Handbook that he also throws an overhand curveball, a changeup, and occasionally a slider.
For Wieland’s career, the trade from Texas to San Diego proved to be a huge blessing. Not only was he traded to an organization that provided more upward mobility and a more aggressive developmental timeline to reach the major leagues, but he also found himself in a stadium that should better suit his style on the mound.
Pitchers who do not possess a plus fastball and rely mostly on command and deception do not always fare well at the big league level, especially those command pitchers who posted a 38.6% groundball rate in the minor leagues last season. That combination screams high home run rate. Petco Park, however, suppresses home runs. In 2011, Petco ranked 23rd amongst 30 ballparks in terms of home run rate. On the other hand, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington — where Wieland hypothetically would have pitched had he not been traded — ranked number one in home run rate by a wide margin.
ZiPS projects Wieland to compile a 4.06 ERA over 146.1 innings of work at the big league level this year. While not Rookie of the Year material in the National League, it’s certainly very valuable for a small market team searching for cost-controlled talent, especially considering the fact that the average ERA for a starting pitcher in 2011 was exactly 4.06.
It is unclear how long Wieland will remain in the big leagues this season. The Padres are scrambling to fill the shoes of Dustin Moseley and Tim Stauffer, who both currently sit on the 15-day DL. When both right-handers return to the starting rotation, Wieland could very simply be sent down to Triple-A to slow his service clock and to avoid rushing him to the big league level before he has even proven the ability to dominate Triple-A hitters.
Eventually, Joe Wieland profiles to be a solid fourth or fifth starter at the big league level. He could post a few above-average seasons and be considered a third starter at times. Pitching in Petco Park should aid him in his transition to the big leagues, though, limiting his home run rate and allowing him to learn at the big league level with more leeway than he would have otherwise gotten in Texas.
Right-hander Joe Wieland, however, experienced an outpouring of emotion in the Tucson Padres dugout when he learned of his promotion to the Padres’ big league club. He broke down crying and began hugging all of his teammates that surrounded him.
Wieland is expected to make his first major league start on Saturday evening on the road against a division rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The 22-year-old pitcher came to the Padres organization last season from Texas in the Mike Adams trade. His stuff will not overpower anyone, but his command and pitchability have always been well above average on the mound. In fact, at the time of the trade last summer, Wieland had only walked four batters in 85.2 innings for Myrtle Beach, Texas’ High-A affiliate in the California League, and had struck out 96.
He features a high-80s, low-90s fastball that comes at the opposing batter relatively straight. Last fall, his fastball reportedly touched 94-95 MPH, but it generally sits a few ticks lower on the gun. Because the pitch lacks significantly life, Wieland relies on changing speeds and spotting the fastball on the corners with precision. Baseball America writes in their 2012 Prospect Handbook that he also throws an overhand curveball, a changeup, and occasionally a slider.
For Wieland’s career, the trade from Texas to San Diego proved to be a huge blessing. Not only was he traded to an organization that provided more upward mobility and a more aggressive developmental timeline to reach the major leagues, but he also found himself in a stadium that should better suit his style on the mound.
Pitchers who do not possess a plus fastball and rely mostly on command and deception do not always fare well at the big league level, especially those command pitchers who posted a 38.6% groundball rate in the minor leagues last season. That combination screams high home run rate. Petco Park, however, suppresses home runs. In 2011, Petco ranked 23rd amongst 30 ballparks in terms of home run rate. On the other hand, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington — where Wieland hypothetically would have pitched had he not been traded — ranked number one in home run rate by a wide margin.
ZiPS projects Wieland to compile a 4.06 ERA over 146.1 innings of work at the big league level this year. While not Rookie of the Year material in the National League, it’s certainly very valuable for a small market team searching for cost-controlled talent, especially considering the fact that the average ERA for a starting pitcher in 2011 was exactly 4.06.
It is unclear how long Wieland will remain in the big leagues this season. The Padres are scrambling to fill the shoes of Dustin Moseley and Tim Stauffer, who both currently sit on the 15-day DL. When both right-handers return to the starting rotation, Wieland could very simply be sent down to Triple-A to slow his service clock and to avoid rushing him to the big league level before he has even proven the ability to dominate Triple-A hitters.
Eventually, Joe Wieland profiles to be a solid fourth or fifth starter at the big league level. He could post a few above-average seasons and be considered a third starter at times. Pitching in Petco Park should aid him in his transition to the big leagues, though, limiting his home run rate and allowing him to learn at the big league level with more leeway than he would have otherwise gotten in Texas.
Fredi Gonzalez’s Decision-Making Is Not Helping the Braves.
Spoiler [+]
The Atlanta Braves have followed up their 2011 collapse with an 0-4 start to the 2012 season. The Braves have simply been terrible in 2012. Their .229 wOBA is 29th in the majors, they rank 29th in BABIP against, and they are tied for 29th in run differential. Not all of this can be blamed on the manager and it is only four games, but Gonzalez is in line for criticism for his bullpen usage and playing time decisions.
I try to resist criticizing the decisions of major league managers. They have much more information that those of us on the outside do. By virtue of being with the team every day, they also have the ability to use their wealth of information in the proper context. Lineup decisions that analysts criticize on baseball grounds may in fact be based on factors not publicly known. Despite my hesitancy on this front, some of the decisions made by Fredi Gonzalez in the early days of the 2012 season appear to be indefensible.
Last night the Braves were opening a series against the Houston Astros and facing lefty starter J.A. Happ. Gonzalez chose to sit Jason Heyward for this game with Matt Diaz starting in RF, Martin Prado in LF, and Juan Francisco at 3B. The is a lineup that is inferior both offensively and defensively to Diaz in LF, Heyward in RF, and Prado at 3B.
For his career, Diaz has had a lot of success against lefties with a .374 wOBA. Prado has a identical .339 wOBA against both lefties and righties. Heyward has certainly had his struggles against lefties with a .310 wOBA compared to .365 against righties, but Juan Francisco has been terrible with a .202 wOBA in a very limited sample size. Though given his minor league track record against southpaws, Francisco’s MLB numbers are not surprising. Despite the players’ past performances, Gonzalez chose to play the iron-gloved Francisco (115 errors in 533 minor league games) instead of Heyward. Francisco went on to make three errors in the first three innings of the game, including two on one play, which eventually led to a three-run inning by the Astros.
Why was Francisco playing? According to Braves’ beat writer David O’Brien, Gonzalez wanted to “see him hit against a lefty.
I try to resist criticizing the decisions of major league managers. They have much more information that those of us on the outside do. By virtue of being with the team every day, they also have the ability to use their wealth of information in the proper context. Lineup decisions that analysts criticize on baseball grounds may in fact be based on factors not publicly known. Despite my hesitancy on this front, some of the decisions made by Fredi Gonzalez in the early days of the 2012 season appear to be indefensible.
Last night the Braves were opening a series against the Houston Astros and facing lefty starter J.A. Happ. Gonzalez chose to sit Jason Heyward for this game with Matt Diaz starting in RF, Martin Prado in LF, and Juan Francisco at 3B. The is a lineup that is inferior both offensively and defensively to Diaz in LF, Heyward in RF, and Prado at 3B.
For his career, Diaz has had a lot of success against lefties with a .374 wOBA. Prado has a identical .339 wOBA against both lefties and righties. Heyward has certainly had his struggles against lefties with a .310 wOBA compared to .365 against righties, but Juan Francisco has been terrible with a .202 wOBA in a very limited sample size. Though given his minor league track record against southpaws, Francisco’s MLB numbers are not surprising. Despite the players’ past performances, Gonzalez chose to play the iron-gloved Francisco (115 errors in 533 minor league games) instead of Heyward. Francisco went on to make three errors in the first three innings of the game, including two on one play, which eventually led to a three-run inning by the Astros.
Why was Francisco playing? According to Braves’ beat writer David O’Brien, Gonzalez wanted to “see him hit against a lefty.
