2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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jumpmanfromdabay
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Giants Mota Suspended for 100 Games. Smh
barry zero
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Is it really "performance enhancing" if the dude has an ERA of 5.06?
Would he even get anyone out without the drugs?
Would he even get anyone out without the drugs?
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Are we still waiting for Lloyd Braun to tell us why he failed that test so miserably?
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LaHair
Samardzija
Starlin Castro is Good at Baseball.
What Is Andre Ethier Worth?
The Mariano Rivera Fact Sheet.
Spoiler [+]
During his chat last Wednesday, Dave Cameron ranked the top MLB shortstops as Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and then a huge chasm before the next best guy. As we are no longer in the era of offensive shortstops, the guys who can swing a big stick like Tulo really stand out from the crowd. I agree with Dave for the most part, but there is one guy I would add to that list who is quickly closing the gap on Reyes: Starlin Castro.
Castro doesn’t seem to get a lot of attention other than when he is screwing up, but he is one of the best young pure hitters in the game. There have been a lot of knocks on Castro thus far in his young career which has led to the lack of respect. His defense is suspect at best, he doesn’t walk much and there have been some attitude/effort problems. These are legitimate concerns. Talented players can wash out if they don’t have their head screwed on straight, and he loses some serious value if he has to move off shortstop.
My counter-argument to these points: Through his age 21 season he posted a 103 wRC+ across 1221 PA. Troy Tulowitzki was still wearing a Long Beach State Dirtbags uniform at the same age. To put that in perspective, only 47 players since the deadball era have even accumulated 1000 PA before their age 22 season, let alone post above league average offensive numbers. Among these 47 players, Castro’s 103 wRC+ mark comes in at #29. I’ll let you take a guess at how many of the guys above him did it at shortstop.
Two. Alex Rodriguez (144) and Arky Vaughan (131). Now, shortstop isn’t the only premium defensive position, but if we include center fielders and catchers, the list still only goes up to 10 names.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]wRC+[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mickey Mantle[/td][td]154[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex Rodriguez[/td][td]144[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ken Griffey[/td][td]140[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cesar Cedeno[/td][td]131[/td][/tr][tr][td]Arky Vaughan[/td][td]131[/td][/tr][tr][td]Vada Pinson[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Bench[/td][td]119[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rick Manning[/td][td]109[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andruw Jones[/td][td]108[/td][/tr][tr][td]Butch Wynegar[/td][td]104[/td][/tr][/table]
Obviously all of these players were better hitters than Castro at the same age, but that list includes five Hall of Famers (assuming induction for Rodriguez and Griffey), which is impressive considering center fielders are notoriously underrepresented in Cooperstown.
If we go below Castro’s level of production we find other very good shortstops like Travis Jackson (95), Edgar Renteria (92), Robin Yount (83) and Elvis Andrus (81).
I’m not trying to predict future greatness for Castro here. There are a lot of variables at play. If he can’t stick at shortstop much longer, as many scouts suspect, he isn’t quite as special. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate what he is doing right now. Sure, his play on defense is at times laughable, but since he stepped foot on at MLB diamond at age 20 in 2010, only five shortstops have posted a higher wRC+ than him. He also does it in an exciting way. I appreciate the value of a walk as much as the next fan, but there is something to be said for a guy who puts the ball in play 80% of the time, with 20.3% of those being line drives and only 6.2% as infield flies. Add 16 triples, 64 stolen base attempts and .308 average into the mix, and he is a fun guy to watch at the ballpark. If I’m a GM trying to win a World Series, I probably want Andrus due to his stellar fielding and plate discipline, but if I’m Joe Sixpack heading out to the park, an afternoon in the bleachers at Wrigley watching Castro hone his craft sounds like a pretty good time.
So far in this young season, Castro has posted a .359 wOBA on the strength of a .392 BABIP. While this is high for a guy even with Castro’s swing and speed, he has shown that he can operate comfortably in the .340-.350 range. ZiPS projects a rest of season wOBA of .338, which would put him right around last season’s production. Given his age and the fact that his plate discipline numbers can’t get any worse, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him best that projected mark.
As a guy who relies on his batting average to maintain most of his value, Castro isn’t exactly a SABR darling, but value comes in many packages, and Castro is an example of how a high-contact/low-walk approach at the plate can still produce a valuable player.
Castro doesn’t seem to get a lot of attention other than when he is screwing up, but he is one of the best young pure hitters in the game. There have been a lot of knocks on Castro thus far in his young career which has led to the lack of respect. His defense is suspect at best, he doesn’t walk much and there have been some attitude/effort problems. These are legitimate concerns. Talented players can wash out if they don’t have their head screwed on straight, and he loses some serious value if he has to move off shortstop.
My counter-argument to these points: Through his age 21 season he posted a 103 wRC+ across 1221 PA. Troy Tulowitzki was still wearing a Long Beach State Dirtbags uniform at the same age. To put that in perspective, only 47 players since the deadball era have even accumulated 1000 PA before their age 22 season, let alone post above league average offensive numbers. Among these 47 players, Castro’s 103 wRC+ mark comes in at #29. I’ll let you take a guess at how many of the guys above him did it at shortstop.
Two. Alex Rodriguez (144) and Arky Vaughan (131). Now, shortstop isn’t the only premium defensive position, but if we include center fielders and catchers, the list still only goes up to 10 names.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]wRC+[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mickey Mantle[/td][td]154[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex Rodriguez[/td][td]144[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ken Griffey[/td][td]140[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cesar Cedeno[/td][td]131[/td][/tr][tr][td]Arky Vaughan[/td][td]131[/td][/tr][tr][td]Vada Pinson[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Bench[/td][td]119[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rick Manning[/td][td]109[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andruw Jones[/td][td]108[/td][/tr][tr][td]Butch Wynegar[/td][td]104[/td][/tr][/table]
Obviously all of these players were better hitters than Castro at the same age, but that list includes five Hall of Famers (assuming induction for Rodriguez and Griffey), which is impressive considering center fielders are notoriously underrepresented in Cooperstown.
If we go below Castro’s level of production we find other very good shortstops like Travis Jackson (95), Edgar Renteria (92), Robin Yount (83) and Elvis Andrus (81).
I’m not trying to predict future greatness for Castro here. There are a lot of variables at play. If he can’t stick at shortstop much longer, as many scouts suspect, he isn’t quite as special. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t appreciate what he is doing right now. Sure, his play on defense is at times laughable, but since he stepped foot on at MLB diamond at age 20 in 2010, only five shortstops have posted a higher wRC+ than him. He also does it in an exciting way. I appreciate the value of a walk as much as the next fan, but there is something to be said for a guy who puts the ball in play 80% of the time, with 20.3% of those being line drives and only 6.2% as infield flies. Add 16 triples, 64 stolen base attempts and .308 average into the mix, and he is a fun guy to watch at the ballpark. If I’m a GM trying to win a World Series, I probably want Andrus due to his stellar fielding and plate discipline, but if I’m Joe Sixpack heading out to the park, an afternoon in the bleachers at Wrigley watching Castro hone his craft sounds like a pretty good time.
So far in this young season, Castro has posted a .359 wOBA on the strength of a .392 BABIP. While this is high for a guy even with Castro’s swing and speed, he has shown that he can operate comfortably in the .340-.350 range. ZiPS projects a rest of season wOBA of .338, which would put him right around last season’s production. Given his age and the fact that his plate discipline numbers can’t get any worse, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him best that projected mark.
As a guy who relies on his batting average to maintain most of his value, Castro isn’t exactly a SABR darling, but value comes in many packages, and Castro is an example of how a high-contact/low-walk approach at the plate can still produce a valuable player.
What Is Andre Ethier Worth?
Spoiler [+]
Andre Ethier will be the first major question for the Los Angeles Dodgers’ new ownership. The 30-year-old outfielder will become a free-agent at the end of the season, and he has recently indicated that he would be willing to sign an extension with the club.
Since 2006, Ethier has emerged as a mainstay in the Dodgers’ outfield, and he has become one of their most integral players — along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. At the same time, Ethier will be a year older next season, and the team may not be willing to commit a substantial amount of money to a player entering his decline phase. But some other team will. And if Ethier is allowed to hit free-agency, there’s a good chance he’ll get the contract he desires.
Ethier has reportedly been looking for a deal that might exceed $100 million. But when we look at some comparable players, it’s tough to find another player that commanded that type of money on the free-agent market.
Nick Markakis, Alex Rios and Nick Swisher each signed extensions before hitting free-agency — none of which were anywhere close to $100 million. Ichiro was given a five-year, $90 million contract extension, but he was entering his age-34 season and he was one of baseball’s best players before he signed the deal.
There’s one player on the list who is somewhat similar to Ethier, and another player who isn’t on the list because he became a full-time first baseman by the time he hit free-agency. Both Magglio Ordonez and Adam Dunn each reached free-agency at the same age as Ethier. All of the players were exceptional hitters, but they struggled defensively in the outfield. As a result, Dunn became a full-time first baseman with the Washington Nationals — and he only received a four-year, $56 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. That’s a major difference from what Ethier is asking for. While there hasn’t been talk about moving Ethier to first base, his defense could force the issue in a few seasons.
Ordonez, on the other hand, makes for a pretty interesting comparison. Though he was coming off a devastating knee injury, the right-fielder signed a five-year, $85 million contract with Detroit . Ethier could use that deal as a benchmark — then point to a better market today — and demand somewhere near the $100 million he wants.
Another interesting player ranks a little lower on the list: During the same time period, Jayson Werth accumulated just 12.4 WAR. After two more seasons of strong production, Werth snagged a seven-year, $126 million contract from the Washington Nationals. Some folks have speculated that Ethier will look for a similar contract, but that notion seems crazy.
Werth’s deal was seen as a huge overpay by the Nationals at the time — and it’s going to be incredibly hard for Ethier to convince a team to give him that type of money. Werth was a year older when he signed his deal, but he was coming off three consecutive seasons with at least 5 WAR and was regarded as a strong defender.
That’s what’s going to make Ethier’s next contract so interesting. No one can argue with his offensive production with the Dodgers: He has hit .291/.364/.479 since 2006. But his defense limits his ceiling. Because of that, Ethier has consistently been pretty good, but he has never great. And while he has posted a yearly WAR total of about 3 each season, he has never be able to top 3.5 during a single season. His 5.3 UZR actually rated alright last season, but his career -27.9 UZR tells us much more about his defense. Since his defense is unlikely to improve with age, it should be a major concern for any team looking to sign Ethier this off-season.
While first base might hide some concerns, we’ve seen how much it can affect players on the free-agent market. At this point, Ethier needs to separate himself from Dunn as much as possible if he wants to make $100 million — but there’s no way a team will give him the deal that Werth signed.
If Ethier hopes to make the money he wants, he’ll be best off matching Ordonez’s previous production and then using Werth’s contract to illustrate how much the market has changed. While the dollar figures are debatable, one thing is certain: Ethier will cash in on the open market.
Since 2006, Ethier has emerged as a mainstay in the Dodgers’ outfield, and he has become one of their most integral players — along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. At the same time, Ethier will be a year older next season, and the team may not be willing to commit a substantial amount of money to a player entering his decline phase. But some other team will. And if Ethier is allowed to hit free-agency, there’s a good chance he’ll get the contract he desires.
Ethier has reportedly been looking for a deal that might exceed $100 million. But when we look at some comparable players, it’s tough to find another player that commanded that type of money on the free-agent market.
Nick Markakis, Alex Rios and Nick Swisher each signed extensions before hitting free-agency — none of which were anywhere close to $100 million. Ichiro was given a five-year, $90 million contract extension, but he was entering his age-34 season and he was one of baseball’s best players before he signed the deal.
There’s one player on the list who is somewhat similar to Ethier, and another player who isn’t on the list because he became a full-time first baseman by the time he hit free-agency. Both Magglio Ordonez and Adam Dunn each reached free-agency at the same age as Ethier. All of the players were exceptional hitters, but they struggled defensively in the outfield. As a result, Dunn became a full-time first baseman with the Washington Nationals — and he only received a four-year, $56 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. That’s a major difference from what Ethier is asking for. While there hasn’t been talk about moving Ethier to first base, his defense could force the issue in a few seasons.
Ordonez, on the other hand, makes for a pretty interesting comparison. Though he was coming off a devastating knee injury, the right-fielder signed a five-year, $85 million contract with Detroit . Ethier could use that deal as a benchmark — then point to a better market today — and demand somewhere near the $100 million he wants.
Another interesting player ranks a little lower on the list: During the same time period, Jayson Werth accumulated just 12.4 WAR. After two more seasons of strong production, Werth snagged a seven-year, $126 million contract from the Washington Nationals. Some folks have speculated that Ethier will look for a similar contract, but that notion seems crazy.
Werth’s deal was seen as a huge overpay by the Nationals at the time — and it’s going to be incredibly hard for Ethier to convince a team to give him that type of money. Werth was a year older when he signed his deal, but he was coming off three consecutive seasons with at least 5 WAR and was regarded as a strong defender.
That’s what’s going to make Ethier’s next contract so interesting. No one can argue with his offensive production with the Dodgers: He has hit .291/.364/.479 since 2006. But his defense limits his ceiling. Because of that, Ethier has consistently been pretty good, but he has never great. And while he has posted a yearly WAR total of about 3 each season, he has never be able to top 3.5 during a single season. His 5.3 UZR actually rated alright last season, but his career -27.9 UZR tells us much more about his defense. Since his defense is unlikely to improve with age, it should be a major concern for any team looking to sign Ethier this off-season.
While first base might hide some concerns, we’ve seen how much it can affect players on the free-agent market. At this point, Ethier needs to separate himself from Dunn as much as possible if he wants to make $100 million — but there’s no way a team will give him the deal that Werth signed.
If Ethier hopes to make the money he wants, he’ll be best off matching Ordonez’s previous production and then using Werth’s contract to illustrate how much the market has changed. While the dollar figures are debatable, one thing is certain: Ethier will cash in on the open market.
The Mariano Rivera Fact Sheet.
Spoiler [+]
Late last week the Yankees (and really all of baseball) got some bad news when Mariano Rivera tore his right ACL shagging fly balls before Thursday’s game. It’s been part of his pre-game routine throughout his entire professional career, but it wasn’t until now that he took a misstep and hurt himself seriously. Rivera did announce that he will return to pitch next year — “I am coming back. Write it down in big letters … I’m not going out like this,
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Originally Posted by Proshares
Hamilton
He's getting PAID this offseason
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Love seeing greatness like that. I'm hoping he has a season for the ages.
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
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Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN
@ his representative saying it was cough medicine that contributed to a positive test.
Should of went the Braun route and say it was herpes
Top 100 draft prospects for 2012.
Dearth of college pitchers after Zunino.
The Tigers are vulnerable.
Spoiler [+]
With the Rule 4 draft now just under four weeks away, I'm expanding my rankings of the best prospects in this year's draft class to 100 names, including some pretty significant changes within the top 100. As always, these rankings are based on my evaluations of players and those of my colleague Kiley McDaniel and of conversations with evaluators from MLB clubs over the past several months. I'll update the rankings one more time before the draft to reflect late changes (such as injuries).
These rankings are not a projection of who's going to be drafted where. They reflect my opinion of who the best players are, in order. My first projection of the first round -- matching players to teams -- will appear here on Tuesday, May 15. For the curious, if I had to produce such a list today, I'd have Byron Buxton going first overall to Houston, Kyle Zimmer second to Minnesota and Mike Zunino third to Seattle.
Click on the player's name for a full scouting report. Those reports will be updated regularly, so be sure to check back for updates.
Byron Buxton
CF
6-1
175
High school: Appling H.S., Baxley, Ga.
Analysis: He's still on top of most scouts' individual preferred lists, with game-altering speed, an incredibly athletic body, a plus arm and a swing that produces a lot of contact and should lead to future power, although he has just one home run this spring. He's risky and no lock to go first overall, but a player who earns comparisons to Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and other superstars has to be a strong consideration up top.
Previous ranking: 1 | 1
Carlos Correa
SS
6-4
190
High school: Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Santa Isabel, P.R.
Analysis: A strong showing at last week's Tournament of Excellence helped Correa's cause, as does the fact he's a true 17-year-old with big power potential who should have no trouble staying in the infield.
Previous ranking: 5 | 6
Kevin Gausman
RHP
6-4
185
Analysis: I could make a case for Gausman, Mark Appel or Kyle Zimmer as the top college arm, but Gausman is flashing two plus secondary pitches now and getting ground balls and has the velocity to match the other guys, not to mention better results as a sophomore in the nation's best conference.
Previous ranking: 6 | 5
Mike Zunino
C
6-2
215
Analysis: He's still the best college bat in this draft, but that he's hitting .244 AVG/.314 OBP/.456 SLG in the SEC (and doesn't have to face his staff) isn't helping his case.
Previous ranking: 2 | 7
Max Fried
LHP
6-3
170
High school: Harvard-Westlake, Santa Monica, Calif.
Analysis: Scouts love this guy -- more than one national guy has told me he'd consider Fried at No. 1 overall. Highly projectable, athletic lefty who can really spin a breaking ball.
Previous ranking: 9 | 8
Mark Appel
RHP
6-5
215
Analysis: For various small reasons, industry sentiment on Appel seems to have cooled slightly, and I don't think it's a coincidence that it started the week after he threw 149 pitches against Oregon on April 13.
Previous ranking: 3 | 3
Albert Almora
OF
6-2
170
High school: Mater Academy Charter, Hialeah, Fla.
Analysis: Smooth swing, future plus defender in center, good makeup, just turned 18 a few weeks ago.
Previous ranking: 8 | 27
Kyle Zimmer
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: He missed his last start with a hamstring strain; didn't have the same plus velocity the three starts before that. One to watch when he returns, as he could move up or down quickly.
Previous ranking: 4 | 18
Luc Giolito
RHP
6-6
230
High school: Harvard-Westlake, Santa Monica, Calif.
Analysis: He's missed most of the season with a minor elbow injury. If the medicals check out, and early indications are that his elbow is as "fine" as can be under the circumstances, I think he'll go off the board pretty high. A fully healthy Giolito probably would have been atop this list.
Previous ranking: 11 | 2
Courtney Hawkins
OF
6-3
210
High school: Carroll H.S., Corpus Christi, Texas
Analysis: There have been consistent reports that Hawkins has improved as a hitter this spring, particularly in his approach. I see some risk and some aspects of the swing to try to smooth out or quiet down, but there's explosiveness here that only Buxton can match.
Previous ranking: 18 | 25
Richie Shaffer
3B
6-3
205
Analysis: Shaffer is the second-best college bat, behind Zunino. He actually has more offensive upside than Zunino, but at third base rather than behind the plate. He needed to improve his game this year and has done so.
Previous ranking: 12 | NR
Andrew Heaney
LHP
6-2
174
Analysis: The best college lefty in the draft could go in the single digits; he's not that physical but otherwise checks all the boxes, including outstanding results with 109 strikeouts and just 19 walks in 93 innings in the strong Big 12 this year.
Previous ranking: 19 | NR
Deven Marrero
SS
6-1
194
Analysis: His swing mechanics are way off from last year, but he can still play short, and I think the makeup questions are somewhat overblown; you don't go from great makeup as a sophomore to iffy makeup as a junior. A shortstop who can hit a little is a valuable thing.
Previous ranking: 7 | 4
Zach Eflin
RHP
6-5
200
High school: Hagerty, H.S., Oviedo, Fla.
Analysis: He missed time with a triceps strain, but told me via Twitter that he will be taking the mound on Tuesday night. Assuming the medicals check out, this is what a high school righty should look like.
Previous ranking: 15 | 23
Stephen Piscotty
3B
6-3
215
Analysis: He hasn't produced the power scouts wanted to see, but much of that is because of Stanford's coaching staff preaching a rigid hitting style, not any lack of ability.
Previous ranking: 13 | 11
Michael Wacha
RHP
6-6
200
Analysis: A relatively "safe" college starter with an out pitch changeup; his breaking ball hasn't developed to the point he'd be a top-10 pick on talent, although he could go there anyway because of his high probability.
Previous ranking: 16 | 10
Marcus Stroman
RHP
5-8
185
Analysis: There is a lot of industry speculation on Stroman going in the top half of the round and reaching the majors later this year as a three-pitch reliever who'd likely be a huge fan favorite -- but I'd still love to see him get a chance to start.
Previous ranking: 23 | 36
Gavin Cecchini
SS
6-1
180
High school: Barbe H.S., Lake Charles, La.
Analysis: He's the younger brother of Red Sox third-base prospect Garin Cecchini and is a better fielder and a better hitting prospect, likely to go in the 11-20 range in a draft that doesn't have many strong middle-infield prospects.
Previous ranking: 14 | 13
Addison Russell
SS
6-1
210
High school: Pace H.S., Pensacola, Fla.
Analysis: He looks sharp, with a trimmed-down body that plays today at shortstop, although it may have cost him some present power. I still see a power-hitting third baseman with great hands as his body matures, with some slight star potential.
Previous ranking: 20 | 26
David Dahl
CF
6-2
185
High school: Oak Mountain H.S., Birmingham, Ala.
Analysis: His up-and-down spring ended up on a slight up note, although his team missed the playoffs, ending his season on the early side. His solid set of tools points to an above-average regular but not a star.
Previous ranking: 29 | 16
Corey Seager
SS
6-3
190
High school: Northwest Carrabus H.S., Concord, N.C.
Analysis: Kyle's younger brother is already bigger and stronger than his major league sibling; he'll move to third in pro ball but the bat clearly profiles there, as does the defensive package.
Previous ranking: 35 | 35
Chris Stratton
RHP
6-3
198
Analysis: He leads the SEC in strikeouts with 74; Gausman has 70, and no other pitcher has more than 48. Stratton does it easy with a knockout slider but will have to show he can pitch more off his fastball in pro ball.
Previous ranking: 25 | NR
Joey Gallo
3B
6-5
220
High school: Bishop Gorman H.S., Las Vegas
Analysis: He has the best raw power in the draft with some questions about his ability to make enough contact to get to it. (That is, you have to hit first to hit for power.) Would go higher if he was willing to pitch, but he's not, so maybe we should stop talking about it.
Previous ranking: 22 | 12
Stryker Trahan
C
6-1
215
High school: Acadiana H.S., Lafayette, La.
Analysis: His performance hasn't been great this year, particularly in receiving, but it's a strong set of tools offering the upside of a solid-average defender behind the plate whose offense would profile at many other positions.
Previous ranking: 21 | 15
Lance McCullers
RHP
6-2
205
High school: Jesuit H.S., Tampa
Analysis: Improvements to his delivery have resulted in substantially better command this spring, to the point scouts see a 25-60 percent chance (depending on who you ask) of him remaining a starter in pro ball -- a percentage that was pretty much zero when the season began.
Previous ranking: 41 | NR
[h4]NO. 26-100[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
RANK
[/th][th=""]
NAME
[/th][th=""]
POS
[/th][th=""]
SCHOOL
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
26
[/td][td]
Hunter Virant
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Camarillo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
27
[/td][td]
Carson Kelly
[/td][td]
3B/RHP
[/td][td]
Westview (Ore.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
28
[/td][td]
Brian Johnson
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Florida
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
29
[/td][td]
Walker Weickel
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Olympia (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
30
[/td][td]
Matt Smoral
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Solon (Ohio) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
31
[/td][td]
Tanner Rahier
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Palm Desert (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
32
[/td][td]
Lucas Sims
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Brookwood (Ga.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
33
[/td][td]
Nick Travieso
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Archbishop McCarthy (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
34
[/td][td]
Ty Buttrey
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Providence (N.C.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
35
[/td][td]
Clint Coulter
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Union (Wash.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
36
[/td][td]
Ty Hensley
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Edmond Santa Fe (Okla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
37
[/td][td]
Jeff Gelalich
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
UCLA
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
38
[/td][td]
Daniel Robertson
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Upland (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
39
[/td][td]
Mitch Gueller
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
WF West (Wash.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
40
[/td][td]
Wyatt Mathisen
[/td][td]
C/SS
[/td][td]
Calallen (Texas) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
41
[/td][td]
Barrett Barnes
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Texas Tech
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
42
[/td][td]
Tyler Naquin
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Texas A&M
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
43
[/td][td]
Mitch Nay
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Hamilton (Ariz.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
44
[/td][td]
Nolan Fontana
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Florida
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
45
[/td][td]
Mitch Brown
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Rochester Century (Minn.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
46
[/td][td]
Martin Agosta
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
St. Mary's
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
47
[/td][td]
Kieran Lovegrove
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Mission Viejo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
48
[/td][td]
Anthony Alford
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Petal (Miss.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
49
[/td][td]
Kenny Diekroeger
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Stanford
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
50
[/td][td]
Shane Watson
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Lakewood (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
51
[/td][td]
Rio Ruiz
[/td][td]
3B
[/td][td]
Bishop Amat (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
52
[/td][td]
Duane Underwood
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Pope (Ga.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
53
[/td][td]
Pat Light
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Monmouth
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
54
[/td][td]
Alec Rash
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
ADM (Iowa) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
55
[/td][td]
Lewis Brinson
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Coral Springs (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
56
[/td][td]
Nolan Sanburn
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Arkansas
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
57
[/td][td]
Travis Jankowski
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Stony Brook
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
58
[/td][td]
Chase DeJong
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Wilson (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
59
[/td][td]
Pierce Johnson
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Missouri State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
60
[/td][td]
Cory Jones
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
College of the Canyons
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
61
[/td][td]
Alex Wood
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Georgia
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
62
[/td][td]
Stephen Johnson
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
St. Edward's
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
63
[/td][td]
Mason Melotakis
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
NW State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
64
[/td][td]
J.T. Chargois
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Rice
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
65
[/td][td]
Branden Kline
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Virginia
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
66
[/td][td]
.J. Davis
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Stone County (Miss.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
67
[/td][td]
Damien Magnifico
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Oklahoma
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
68
[/td][td]
Luke Bard
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Georgia Tech
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
69
[/td][td]
Patrick Wisdom
[/td][td]
3B
[/td][td]
St. Mary's
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
70
[/td][td]
Chris Beck
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Georgia Southern
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
71
[/td][td]
Stephen Rodriguez
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Florida
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
72
[/td][td]
Eddie Butler
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Radford
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
73
[/td][td]
Paul Blackburn
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Heritage (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
74
[/td][td]
Mitch Haniger
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Cal Poly SLO
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
75
[/td][td]
Dylan Baker
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Western Nevada CC
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
76
[/td][td]
Christian Walker
[/td][td]
1B
[/td][td]
South Carolina
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
77
[/td][td]
Freddy Avis
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Menlo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
78
[/td][td]
Alex Young
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Carmel Catholic (Ill.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
79
[/td][td]
Jose Orlando Berrios
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Papa Juan XXlll (Puerto Rico) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
80
[/td][td]
Adam Walker
[/td][td]
1B
[/td][td]
Jacksonville
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
81
[/td][td]
Matt Koch
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Louisville
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
82
[/td][td]
Trey Williams
[/td][td]
3B
[/td][td]
Valencia (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
83
[/td][td]
Brett Mooneyham
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Stanford
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
84
[/td][td]
Fernando Perez
[/td][td]
3B/2B
[/td][td]
Central Arizona JC
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
85
[/td][td]
James Marvel
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Campolindo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
86
[/td][td]
Brady Rogers
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Arizona State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
87
[/td][td]
Giovanni Brusa
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
St. Mary's (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
88
[/td][td]
Kevin Plawecki
[/td][td]
C/SS
[/td][td]
Purdue
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
89
[/td][td]
Victor Roache
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Georgia Southern
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
90
[/td][td]
Alex Yarbrough
[/td][td]
2B
[/td][td]
Ole Miss
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
91
[/td][td]
Torsten Boss
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Michigan State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
92
[/td][td]
Nate Kirby
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
James River (Va.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
93
[/td][td]
Austin Barr
[/td][td]
C
[/td][td]
Camas (Wash.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
94
[/td][td]
Jamie Jarmon
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Indian River (Del.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
95
[/td][td]
'Vone McClure
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Jacksonville (Ark.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
96
[/td][td]
Jorge Fernandez
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Colegio Hector Urdaneta (Puerto Rico) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
97
[/td][td]
Tyler Pike
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Winter Haven (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
98
[/td][td]
RJ Alvarez
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Florida Atlantic
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
99
[/td][td]
Felipe Perez
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Fairmont Prep (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
100
[/td][td]
Jake Barrett
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Arizona State
[/td][/tr][/table]
These rankings are not a projection of who's going to be drafted where. They reflect my opinion of who the best players are, in order. My first projection of the first round -- matching players to teams -- will appear here on Tuesday, May 15. For the curious, if I had to produce such a list today, I'd have Byron Buxton going first overall to Houston, Kyle Zimmer second to Minnesota and Mike Zunino third to Seattle.
Click on the player's name for a full scouting report. Those reports will be updated regularly, so be sure to check back for updates.
Byron Buxton
CF
6-1
175
High school: Appling H.S., Baxley, Ga.
Analysis: He's still on top of most scouts' individual preferred lists, with game-altering speed, an incredibly athletic body, a plus arm and a swing that produces a lot of contact and should lead to future power, although he has just one home run this spring. He's risky and no lock to go first overall, but a player who earns comparisons to Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and other superstars has to be a strong consideration up top.
Previous ranking: 1 | 1
Carlos Correa
SS
6-4
190
High school: Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Santa Isabel, P.R.
Analysis: A strong showing at last week's Tournament of Excellence helped Correa's cause, as does the fact he's a true 17-year-old with big power potential who should have no trouble staying in the infield.
Previous ranking: 5 | 6
Kevin Gausman
RHP
6-4
185
Analysis: I could make a case for Gausman, Mark Appel or Kyle Zimmer as the top college arm, but Gausman is flashing two plus secondary pitches now and getting ground balls and has the velocity to match the other guys, not to mention better results as a sophomore in the nation's best conference.
Previous ranking: 6 | 5
Mike Zunino
C
6-2
215
Analysis: He's still the best college bat in this draft, but that he's hitting .244 AVG/.314 OBP/.456 SLG in the SEC (and doesn't have to face his staff) isn't helping his case.
Previous ranking: 2 | 7
Max Fried
LHP
6-3
170
High school: Harvard-Westlake, Santa Monica, Calif.
Analysis: Scouts love this guy -- more than one national guy has told me he'd consider Fried at No. 1 overall. Highly projectable, athletic lefty who can really spin a breaking ball.
Previous ranking: 9 | 8
Mark Appel
RHP
6-5
215
Analysis: For various small reasons, industry sentiment on Appel seems to have cooled slightly, and I don't think it's a coincidence that it started the week after he threw 149 pitches against Oregon on April 13.
Previous ranking: 3 | 3
Albert Almora
OF
6-2
170
High school: Mater Academy Charter, Hialeah, Fla.
Analysis: Smooth swing, future plus defender in center, good makeup, just turned 18 a few weeks ago.
Previous ranking: 8 | 27
Kyle Zimmer
RHP
6-4
220
Analysis: He missed his last start with a hamstring strain; didn't have the same plus velocity the three starts before that. One to watch when he returns, as he could move up or down quickly.
Previous ranking: 4 | 18
Luc Giolito
RHP
6-6
230
High school: Harvard-Westlake, Santa Monica, Calif.
Analysis: He's missed most of the season with a minor elbow injury. If the medicals check out, and early indications are that his elbow is as "fine" as can be under the circumstances, I think he'll go off the board pretty high. A fully healthy Giolito probably would have been atop this list.
Previous ranking: 11 | 2
Courtney Hawkins
OF
6-3
210
High school: Carroll H.S., Corpus Christi, Texas
Analysis: There have been consistent reports that Hawkins has improved as a hitter this spring, particularly in his approach. I see some risk and some aspects of the swing to try to smooth out or quiet down, but there's explosiveness here that only Buxton can match.
Previous ranking: 18 | 25
Richie Shaffer
3B
6-3
205
Analysis: Shaffer is the second-best college bat, behind Zunino. He actually has more offensive upside than Zunino, but at third base rather than behind the plate. He needed to improve his game this year and has done so.
Previous ranking: 12 | NR
Andrew Heaney
LHP
6-2
174
Analysis: The best college lefty in the draft could go in the single digits; he's not that physical but otherwise checks all the boxes, including outstanding results with 109 strikeouts and just 19 walks in 93 innings in the strong Big 12 this year.
Previous ranking: 19 | NR
Deven Marrero
SS
6-1
194
Analysis: His swing mechanics are way off from last year, but he can still play short, and I think the makeup questions are somewhat overblown; you don't go from great makeup as a sophomore to iffy makeup as a junior. A shortstop who can hit a little is a valuable thing.
Previous ranking: 7 | 4
Zach Eflin
RHP
6-5
200
High school: Hagerty, H.S., Oviedo, Fla.
Analysis: He missed time with a triceps strain, but told me via Twitter that he will be taking the mound on Tuesday night. Assuming the medicals check out, this is what a high school righty should look like.
Previous ranking: 15 | 23
Stephen Piscotty
3B
6-3
215
Analysis: He hasn't produced the power scouts wanted to see, but much of that is because of Stanford's coaching staff preaching a rigid hitting style, not any lack of ability.
Previous ranking: 13 | 11
Michael Wacha
RHP
6-6
200
Analysis: A relatively "safe" college starter with an out pitch changeup; his breaking ball hasn't developed to the point he'd be a top-10 pick on talent, although he could go there anyway because of his high probability.
Previous ranking: 16 | 10
Marcus Stroman
RHP
5-8
185
Analysis: There is a lot of industry speculation on Stroman going in the top half of the round and reaching the majors later this year as a three-pitch reliever who'd likely be a huge fan favorite -- but I'd still love to see him get a chance to start.
Previous ranking: 23 | 36
Gavin Cecchini
SS
6-1
180
High school: Barbe H.S., Lake Charles, La.
Analysis: He's the younger brother of Red Sox third-base prospect Garin Cecchini and is a better fielder and a better hitting prospect, likely to go in the 11-20 range in a draft that doesn't have many strong middle-infield prospects.
Previous ranking: 14 | 13
Addison Russell
SS
6-1
210
High school: Pace H.S., Pensacola, Fla.
Analysis: He looks sharp, with a trimmed-down body that plays today at shortstop, although it may have cost him some present power. I still see a power-hitting third baseman with great hands as his body matures, with some slight star potential.
Previous ranking: 20 | 26
David Dahl
CF
6-2
185
High school: Oak Mountain H.S., Birmingham, Ala.
Analysis: His up-and-down spring ended up on a slight up note, although his team missed the playoffs, ending his season on the early side. His solid set of tools points to an above-average regular but not a star.
Previous ranking: 29 | 16
Corey Seager
SS
6-3
190
High school: Northwest Carrabus H.S., Concord, N.C.
Analysis: Kyle's younger brother is already bigger and stronger than his major league sibling; he'll move to third in pro ball but the bat clearly profiles there, as does the defensive package.
Previous ranking: 35 | 35
Chris Stratton
RHP
6-3
198
Analysis: He leads the SEC in strikeouts with 74; Gausman has 70, and no other pitcher has more than 48. Stratton does it easy with a knockout slider but will have to show he can pitch more off his fastball in pro ball.
Previous ranking: 25 | NR
Joey Gallo
3B
6-5
220
High school: Bishop Gorman H.S., Las Vegas
Analysis: He has the best raw power in the draft with some questions about his ability to make enough contact to get to it. (That is, you have to hit first to hit for power.) Would go higher if he was willing to pitch, but he's not, so maybe we should stop talking about it.
Previous ranking: 22 | 12
Stryker Trahan
C
6-1
215
High school: Acadiana H.S., Lafayette, La.
Analysis: His performance hasn't been great this year, particularly in receiving, but it's a strong set of tools offering the upside of a solid-average defender behind the plate whose offense would profile at many other positions.
Previous ranking: 21 | 15
Lance McCullers
RHP
6-2
205
High school: Jesuit H.S., Tampa
Analysis: Improvements to his delivery have resulted in substantially better command this spring, to the point scouts see a 25-60 percent chance (depending on who you ask) of him remaining a starter in pro ball -- a percentage that was pretty much zero when the season began.
Previous ranking: 41 | NR
[h4]NO. 26-100[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
RANK
[/th][th=""]
NAME
[/th][th=""]
POS
[/th][th=""]
SCHOOL
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
26
[/td][td]
Hunter Virant
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Camarillo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
27
[/td][td]
Carson Kelly
[/td][td]
3B/RHP
[/td][td]
Westview (Ore.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
28
[/td][td]
Brian Johnson
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Florida
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
29
[/td][td]
Walker Weickel
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Olympia (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
30
[/td][td]
Matt Smoral
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Solon (Ohio) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
31
[/td][td]
Tanner Rahier
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Palm Desert (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
32
[/td][td]
Lucas Sims
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Brookwood (Ga.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
33
[/td][td]
Nick Travieso
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Archbishop McCarthy (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
34
[/td][td]
Ty Buttrey
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Providence (N.C.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
35
[/td][td]
Clint Coulter
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Union (Wash.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
36
[/td][td]
Ty Hensley
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Edmond Santa Fe (Okla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
37
[/td][td]
Jeff Gelalich
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
UCLA
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
38
[/td][td]
Daniel Robertson
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Upland (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
39
[/td][td]
Mitch Gueller
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
WF West (Wash.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
40
[/td][td]
Wyatt Mathisen
[/td][td]
C/SS
[/td][td]
Calallen (Texas) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
41
[/td][td]
Barrett Barnes
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Texas Tech
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
42
[/td][td]
Tyler Naquin
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Texas A&M
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
43
[/td][td]
Mitch Nay
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Hamilton (Ariz.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
44
[/td][td]
Nolan Fontana
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Florida
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
45
[/td][td]
Mitch Brown
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Rochester Century (Minn.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
46
[/td][td]
Martin Agosta
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
St. Mary's
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
47
[/td][td]
Kieran Lovegrove
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Mission Viejo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
48
[/td][td]
Anthony Alford
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Petal (Miss.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
49
[/td][td]
Kenny Diekroeger
[/td][td]
SS
[/td][td]
Stanford
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
50
[/td][td]
Shane Watson
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Lakewood (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
51
[/td][td]
Rio Ruiz
[/td][td]
3B
[/td][td]
Bishop Amat (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
52
[/td][td]
Duane Underwood
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Pope (Ga.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
53
[/td][td]
Pat Light
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Monmouth
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
54
[/td][td]
Alec Rash
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
ADM (Iowa) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
55
[/td][td]
Lewis Brinson
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Coral Springs (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
56
[/td][td]
Nolan Sanburn
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Arkansas
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
57
[/td][td]
Travis Jankowski
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Stony Brook
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
58
[/td][td]
Chase DeJong
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Wilson (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
59
[/td][td]
Pierce Johnson
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Missouri State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
60
[/td][td]
Cory Jones
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
College of the Canyons
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
61
[/td][td]
Alex Wood
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Georgia
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
62
[/td][td]
Stephen Johnson
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
St. Edward's
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
63
[/td][td]
Mason Melotakis
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
NW State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
64
[/td][td]
J.T. Chargois
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Rice
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
65
[/td][td]
Branden Kline
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Virginia
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
66
[/td][td]
.J. Davis
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Stone County (Miss.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
67
[/td][td]
Damien Magnifico
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Oklahoma
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
68
[/td][td]
Luke Bard
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Georgia Tech
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
69
[/td][td]
Patrick Wisdom
[/td][td]
3B
[/td][td]
St. Mary's
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
70
[/td][td]
Chris Beck
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Georgia Southern
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
71
[/td][td]
Stephen Rodriguez
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Florida
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
72
[/td][td]
Eddie Butler
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Radford
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
73
[/td][td]
Paul Blackburn
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Heritage (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
74
[/td][td]
Mitch Haniger
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Cal Poly SLO
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
75
[/td][td]
Dylan Baker
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Western Nevada CC
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
76
[/td][td]
Christian Walker
[/td][td]
1B
[/td][td]
South Carolina
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
77
[/td][td]
Freddy Avis
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Menlo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
78
[/td][td]
Alex Young
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Carmel Catholic (Ill.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
79
[/td][td]
Jose Orlando Berrios
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Papa Juan XXlll (Puerto Rico) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
80
[/td][td]
Adam Walker
[/td][td]
1B
[/td][td]
Jacksonville
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
81
[/td][td]
Matt Koch
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Louisville
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
82
[/td][td]
Trey Williams
[/td][td]
3B
[/td][td]
Valencia (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
83
[/td][td]
Brett Mooneyham
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Stanford
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
84
[/td][td]
Fernando Perez
[/td][td]
3B/2B
[/td][td]
Central Arizona JC
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
85
[/td][td]
James Marvel
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Campolindo (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
86
[/td][td]
Brady Rogers
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Arizona State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
87
[/td][td]
Giovanni Brusa
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
St. Mary's (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
88
[/td][td]
Kevin Plawecki
[/td][td]
C/SS
[/td][td]
Purdue
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
89
[/td][td]
Victor Roache
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Georgia Southern
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
90
[/td][td]
Alex Yarbrough
[/td][td]
2B
[/td][td]
Ole Miss
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
91
[/td][td]
Torsten Boss
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Michigan State
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
92
[/td][td]
Nate Kirby
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
James River (Va.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
93
[/td][td]
Austin Barr
[/td][td]
C
[/td][td]
Camas (Wash.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
94
[/td][td]
Jamie Jarmon
[/td][td]
OF
[/td][td]
Indian River (Del.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
95
[/td][td]
'Vone McClure
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Jacksonville (Ark.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
96
[/td][td]
Jorge Fernandez
[/td][td]
CF
[/td][td]
Colegio Hector Urdaneta (Puerto Rico) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
97
[/td][td]
Tyler Pike
[/td][td]
LHP
[/td][td]
Winter Haven (Fla.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
98
[/td][td]
RJ Alvarez
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Florida Atlantic
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
99
[/td][td]
Felipe Perez
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Fairmont Prep (Calif.) H.S.
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
100
[/td][td]
Jake Barrett
[/td][td]
RHP
[/td][td]
Arizona State
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dearth of college pitchers after Zunino.
Spoiler [+]
As clubs continue to move names around their draft boards, those names are jockeying for position, including those expected to be selected in the first round. Whether or not the Houston Astros, owners of the No. 1 overall pick, ultimately call the name of a college starting pitchers or a prep player with superstar upside will remain unclear until the moment it is announced, but there appear to be some battles under way amongst the college bats.
Florida catcher Mike Zunino, despite some recent struggles, remains the No. 1 college position player in the class and is by far the No. 1 catcher available. Prep backstops Stryker Trahan (Acadania High School, La.) and Calallen High School (Texas) star Wyatt Mathieson are next in line, but at the college level, the drop-off is quite large.
Senior Peter O'Brien, a third-round pick last June, has had a big year at the plate -- .354/.465/.677 with 18 homers and a plus-two walk-to-strikeout ratio -- but questions remain whether the Miami Hurricane can stick behind the dish.
Buffalo's Tom Murphy has plus power but scouts wonder if he could hit for enough average to warrant playing every day. He's sitting at .316/.404/.586 with 27 extra-base hits. "His swing has length to it that I'm just not convinced would hold up against pro arms," opined an American League area scout.
TCU's Josh Elander began the year as a catcher among the top 100 talents, but not many believe he'll catch at the next level, despite some improvements this spring. Kennesaw State's Ronnie Freeman, Purdue's Kevin Plawecki and NAIA star Dane Phillips from Oklahoma City College join Elander, Murphy and O'Brien as second-day picks.
One lingering question with Zunino is his struggles in conference play, suggesting he's put most of his numbers up versus non-conference foes. He went 1-for-11 at Kentucky this past weekend, dropping to .320/.376/.629 for the year. In conference play Zunino enters next weekend's series versus Mississippi State batting .244/.314/.456 against the SEC, which on the surface might be telling. A deeper look, however, suggests Zunino has fared just fine against the best of competition.
• One fun race is the two top college bats after Zunino; Clemson's Richie Shaffer and Stanford's Stephen Piscotty. Shaffer has the advantage in performance and he has a shot to stick at third base. Most scouts see Piscotty moving to left field -- which is where he has played lately for the Cardinal -- but they love his strength and ability to let pitches get deep before he unleashes.
"For me," one national crosschecker explained, "Stephen has the [slightly better] bat going forward. He's strong, goes the other way and projects a bit more than Shaffer. Shaffer I can see as the better overall player, though. He's looked better at third base. Let's put it this way -- I've seen worse on big league clubs."
Both players are expected to be first round selections.
Versus "Friday" starters or those generally expected to be selected in the first two rounds or so come June 4-5, Zunino is batting .327/.389/.551, and that includes games facing LSU's Kevin Gausman, Georgia's Alex Wood and Arkansas' Ryne Stanek and D.J. Baxendale.
Conversations centered on Zunino almost always include the words "strength," "leadership" and "makeup," which probably keeps him in the top 5 regardless of his performance.
• It doesn't appear Florida's Nolan Fontana has any shot to catch Arizona State's Deven Marrero as the top college shortstop in the class. Neither player had a good weekend at the plate, but while Fontana has an advantage in 2012 performance, two crosscheckers hinted recently that the two players aren't all that close in talent.
On the mound
• The college arms race continues with the "big three" -- Stanford's Mark Appel, LSU's Kevin Gausman and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer all failing to wow scouts in attendance Friday night, but pitching well enough to hold serve. The second tier, potentially led by Texas A&M right-hander Michael Wacha, is where more movement could take place.
Mississippi State's Chris Stratton tossed seven shutout innings at Alabama, striking out six and allowing seven hits without a base on balls. Oklahoma State Andrew Heaney went the distance versus Oklahoma, yielding three hits and a walk while fanning seven, The southpaw was efficient, too, needing just 106 pitches -- 74 strikes -- to put away the Sooners.
Heaney lacks the projectable body of Wacha and even Stratton as he measures at 6-foot-2 and 175 pounds. His present stuff, however, suggests a No. 2 or 3 starter, and he's likely a first-round pick. At this stage, Wacha looks like the fourth best college starter, followed by Heaney and then a combination of Stratton, Duke's Marcus Stroman, Florida's Brian Johnson and Georgia's Alex Wood. Missouri State's Pierce Johnson returned to the mound late in April and started Sunday, lasting six innings. He was out for three-plus weeks with a sore forearm but is back on the map and could threaten the first round.
Prep Notes
The buzz on the prep scene is that Harvard-Westlake right-hander Lucas Giolito, who started a throwing program last week, may be able to pitch from a mound for clubs prior to the draft and that the results of those sessions could catapult the flamethrower back into the conversation for the top five or six picks& There is one club in the National League that appears to prefer Giolito's teammate Max Fried over the top three college pitchers, and was among those impressed by the showing of infielder Carlos Correa in Puerto Rico last week. "Honestly, we don't know what we're doing," said the club's assistant GM. "We're going to let out [scouts] continue to compile information for us and then we'll come up with something by draft day. It's a long process and we're all looking forward to the final meetings."
Florida catcher Mike Zunino, despite some recent struggles, remains the No. 1 college position player in the class and is by far the No. 1 catcher available. Prep backstops Stryker Trahan (Acadania High School, La.) and Calallen High School (Texas) star Wyatt Mathieson are next in line, but at the college level, the drop-off is quite large.
Senior Peter O'Brien, a third-round pick last June, has had a big year at the plate -- .354/.465/.677 with 18 homers and a plus-two walk-to-strikeout ratio -- but questions remain whether the Miami Hurricane can stick behind the dish.
Buffalo's Tom Murphy has plus power but scouts wonder if he could hit for enough average to warrant playing every day. He's sitting at .316/.404/.586 with 27 extra-base hits. "His swing has length to it that I'm just not convinced would hold up against pro arms," opined an American League area scout.
TCU's Josh Elander began the year as a catcher among the top 100 talents, but not many believe he'll catch at the next level, despite some improvements this spring. Kennesaw State's Ronnie Freeman, Purdue's Kevin Plawecki and NAIA star Dane Phillips from Oklahoma City College join Elander, Murphy and O'Brien as second-day picks.
One lingering question with Zunino is his struggles in conference play, suggesting he's put most of his numbers up versus non-conference foes. He went 1-for-11 at Kentucky this past weekend, dropping to .320/.376/.629 for the year. In conference play Zunino enters next weekend's series versus Mississippi State batting .244/.314/.456 against the SEC, which on the surface might be telling. A deeper look, however, suggests Zunino has fared just fine against the best of competition.
• One fun race is the two top college bats after Zunino; Clemson's Richie Shaffer and Stanford's Stephen Piscotty. Shaffer has the advantage in performance and he has a shot to stick at third base. Most scouts see Piscotty moving to left field -- which is where he has played lately for the Cardinal -- but they love his strength and ability to let pitches get deep before he unleashes.
"For me," one national crosschecker explained, "Stephen has the [slightly better] bat going forward. He's strong, goes the other way and projects a bit more than Shaffer. Shaffer I can see as the better overall player, though. He's looked better at third base. Let's put it this way -- I've seen worse on big league clubs."
Both players are expected to be first round selections.
Versus "Friday" starters or those generally expected to be selected in the first two rounds or so come June 4-5, Zunino is batting .327/.389/.551, and that includes games facing LSU's Kevin Gausman, Georgia's Alex Wood and Arkansas' Ryne Stanek and D.J. Baxendale.
Conversations centered on Zunino almost always include the words "strength," "leadership" and "makeup," which probably keeps him in the top 5 regardless of his performance.
• It doesn't appear Florida's Nolan Fontana has any shot to catch Arizona State's Deven Marrero as the top college shortstop in the class. Neither player had a good weekend at the plate, but while Fontana has an advantage in 2012 performance, two crosscheckers hinted recently that the two players aren't all that close in talent.
On the mound
• The college arms race continues with the "big three" -- Stanford's Mark Appel, LSU's Kevin Gausman and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer all failing to wow scouts in attendance Friday night, but pitching well enough to hold serve. The second tier, potentially led by Texas A&M right-hander Michael Wacha, is where more movement could take place.
Mississippi State's Chris Stratton tossed seven shutout innings at Alabama, striking out six and allowing seven hits without a base on balls. Oklahoma State Andrew Heaney went the distance versus Oklahoma, yielding three hits and a walk while fanning seven, The southpaw was efficient, too, needing just 106 pitches -- 74 strikes -- to put away the Sooners.
Heaney lacks the projectable body of Wacha and even Stratton as he measures at 6-foot-2 and 175 pounds. His present stuff, however, suggests a No. 2 or 3 starter, and he's likely a first-round pick. At this stage, Wacha looks like the fourth best college starter, followed by Heaney and then a combination of Stratton, Duke's Marcus Stroman, Florida's Brian Johnson and Georgia's Alex Wood. Missouri State's Pierce Johnson returned to the mound late in April and started Sunday, lasting six innings. He was out for three-plus weeks with a sore forearm but is back on the map and could threaten the first round.
Prep Notes
The buzz on the prep scene is that Harvard-Westlake right-hander Lucas Giolito, who started a throwing program last week, may be able to pitch from a mound for clubs prior to the draft and that the results of those sessions could catapult the flamethrower back into the conversation for the top five or six picks& There is one club in the National League that appears to prefer Giolito's teammate Max Fried over the top three college pitchers, and was among those impressed by the showing of infielder Carlos Correa in Puerto Rico last week. "Honestly, we don't know what we're doing," said the club's assistant GM. "We're going to let out [scouts] continue to compile information for us and then we'll come up with something by draft day. It's a long process and we're all looking forward to the final meetings."
The Tigers are vulnerable.
Spoiler [+]
At the end of last year, the Detroit Tigers had finished a healthy 15 games ahead of the second-place Cleveland Indians, but that race wasn't without some nail-biting in Detroit. Despite a strong 95-67 final record, the Tigers spent the first half of the season hovering just above .500 and didn't wake up in the morning in first place until the middle of June.
Detroit was heavily favored to repeat going into the season (and justifiably so), but the American League Central's looking like a real race rather than an extended warm-up for October. While winning the division seemed a real uphill climb for the Indians or Chicago White Sox back in March, several things that needed to happen to give the division's best also-rans a shot have started to come together.
So what made Detroit so vulnerable?
[h3]Dunn and Rios playing like major leaguers[/h3]
If you wanted to pick two players who were nightmares to project going into the season, you'd have a hard time picking a more maddening pair than Adam Dunn and Alex Rios.
Dunn and Chicago seemed a match made in heaven, with Dunn a perfect defensive player for designated hitter and U.S. Cellular Field a comfortable home for power hitters. While Dunn's low batting average, lots of walks and power profile suggested that he wouldn't age well, at 31 his decline should have still been a few years off. Instead, he had arguably the biggest drop-off year in baseball history (it was the biggest drop from two-year OPS going back to 1900), finishing the season slugging .277.
If you had placed a dollar on Juan Pierre outslugging Dunn by 50 points last year, you'd be busy swimming in gold coins in your Scrooge McDuck vault rather than reading this article.
Rios had a similar stinker of a season, hitting .227 AVG/.265 OBP/.348 SLG and escaping notoriety only because of being overshadowed by Dunn's worse season.
All told, Dunn and Rios combined to finish five wins below replacement in 2011. Replacement level is set at the level of freely available players, meaning that plugging a couple minor league non-prospects in the lineup instead would have been enough to push the Sox from 79 to 84 wins last year.
If Dunn and Rios could simply play like league-average players in 2012, that would represent a nine-game swing from last season's performances and a solid jolt to Chicago's chances. (A league-average WAR is right around 2.0.) Thanks to Dunn's nine home runs, the pair has already combined for almost a win already, with 80 percent of the season to go, which means they are on their way.
[h3]Cabrera throws off the fluke label[/h3]
After making his first All-Star Game and nabbing his first Silver Slugger a season ago, Asdrubal Cabrera has kept right on hitting in 2012. He's probably not going to end the season hitting .333/.411/.548, though the .342 batting average on balls in play that is fueling that line isn't outlandish.
Cabrera's projection going into the season, .275/.333/.422, has been recalculated by the ZiPS projection system at .280/.343/.432 the rest of the way, practically identical to his 2011 season. Signed through 2014 at a total of just $21 million, the Indians have the best shortstop in the division at pennies on the dollar.
[h3]Rotation depth still an issue for Detroit[/h3]
The back of Detroit's rotation was one of the team's bugaboos for most of the first half last year, and even with Drew Smyly's amazing 1.61 ERA after five major league starts and a strikeout rate even better than Justin Verlander's, it's still an issue going forward. Rick Porcello still hasn't taken that step forward that's been predicted for years; Jacob Turner is coming off shoulder issues; and Andy Oliver has been walking batters by the dozen.
Doug Fister and, more importantly, Fister's changeup are back in Detroit, and Max Scherzer's 3.85 FIP is much lower than his 6.32 ERA, which suggests he has been the victim of some bad luck. But bad things happen to pitchers, and Detroit is walking a very fine line. Keith Law had the Tigers as the 24th-ranked farm system, so pulling out a miracle acquisition in July will be tough.
The only consolation here is that the Indians' and White Sox's farm systems ranked even worse.
[h3]Williams won't be afraid to make moves[/h3]
This is perhaps a more intangible factor, but Kenny Williams' position as general manager in Chicago looks more precarious than ever, and the departure of former manager Ozzie Guillen was, in some respects, Williams' last "Get Out of Jail Free" card. Williams has always been an aggressive GM when the opportunity has presented itself -- with mixed results -- and if the Sox remain in striking distance in a couple months, he's not going to pass up an interesting transaction.
Not many teams would have been audacious enough to bring in Manny Ramirez after nobody wanted him or been willing to take a chance on Rios' entire contract. These moves frequently don't work out, but the Tigers won't be able to count on Chicago playing passive.
[h3]Valverde attempts to prove the Gambler's Fallacy[/h3]
The Gambler's Fallacy is the name assigned to the tendency of some gamblers to believe that luck mystically balances out good fortune with an extra bit of bad fortune just to keep the odds even. It's a little like believing in the Tooth Fairy, though the Tooth Fairy at least pays off in currency (I once received a Nintendo game).
After a 2.24 ERA in 2011 and 49-for-49 in save opportunities, Jose Valverde has already blown two saves and sports an ERA just on the good side of 6. With a FIP of 5.32, he's really pitching that poorly, walking nearly six batters a game.
Valverde's velocity isn't down, but he's just been too darn hittable, with batters making contact on 81 percent of swings and only 9 percent of his pitches resulting in swinging strikes, both career-worsts for the Tigers' closer.
[h3]Chicago's bullpen survives Santos trade[/h3]
When Sergio Santos went to the Toronto Blue Jays and Chris Sale went to the rotation, the Pale Hose pen was a little on the light side. But with Addison Reed's early performance (no runs and 12 strikeouts in nine innings) and scattered contributions from Zach Stewart and Nate Jones, the bullpen has been better than it had any right to be.
Sale's return to the bullpen is one my least favorite moves of the year, but he's a significant upgrade at closer compared to Hector Santiago, who has been serially unable to keep the ball down this year. Dylan Axelrod was moved to the rotation to replace Sale, but he was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte after turning in a "meh" start for the White Sox last Sunday. Before that start, Axelrod struck out 26 batters and walked four in 25 innings at Charlotte.
[h3]Tigers offense falling short of expectations[/h3]
Detroit's lineup was supposed to make up for any pitching shortcomings, but at ninth in the AL in runs the Tigers are not a 90-win team. Even if Prince Fielder can repeat his 2011 in a rather dismal park for a plodding slugger, the lineup has a number of holes (second base, left field, right field) dragging down some good starts by most of the front-line hitters.
Brennan Boesch has been completely lost at the plate, and Delmon Young has done a better job hitting people than baseballs this year. What makes it all worse is the team can't really absorb a loss because of injury by any of its starters, with so little depth that the team already resorted to experimenting with 31-year-old journeyman Brad Eldred before April was out.
[h3]Indians get a lift from Kipnis[/h3]
Having finished ninth in the AL in runs in 2011, Cleveland really needed to add one more bat to last year's lineup. The Tribe was hoping that Grady Sizemore would get healthy or Shin-Soo Choo would bounce back or Casey Kotchman would repeat his surprising 2011. Instead, the key to the Indians' early-season surge has been Jason Kipnis ' continual power development.
From moderate power in the minors, Kipnis has now hit 12 homers in 275 MLB plate appearances, a 26-homer pace (per 600 PA). ZiPS projects Kipnis to finish the season at .266/.333/.442 with 20 homers, terrific production for a second baseman who can handle the position, and it would live up to the team's expectations after drafting him in the second round in 2009.
Projecting the rest of the season using ZiPS, Detroit remains the favorite, with odds of winning the division right at 50/50, which is down from its preseason odds of 71 percent.
The Tigers still have plenty of time to put everything together and the benefit of having Verlander pitch every fifth game, but the playoffs are no longer a given, as they have allowed the White Sox and Indians to hang around and be real contenders in the division race.
Detroit was heavily favored to repeat going into the season (and justifiably so), but the American League Central's looking like a real race rather than an extended warm-up for October. While winning the division seemed a real uphill climb for the Indians or Chicago White Sox back in March, several things that needed to happen to give the division's best also-rans a shot have started to come together.
So what made Detroit so vulnerable?
[h3]Dunn and Rios playing like major leaguers[/h3]
If you wanted to pick two players who were nightmares to project going into the season, you'd have a hard time picking a more maddening pair than Adam Dunn and Alex Rios.
Dunn and Chicago seemed a match made in heaven, with Dunn a perfect defensive player for designated hitter and U.S. Cellular Field a comfortable home for power hitters. While Dunn's low batting average, lots of walks and power profile suggested that he wouldn't age well, at 31 his decline should have still been a few years off. Instead, he had arguably the biggest drop-off year in baseball history (it was the biggest drop from two-year OPS going back to 1900), finishing the season slugging .277.
If you had placed a dollar on Juan Pierre outslugging Dunn by 50 points last year, you'd be busy swimming in gold coins in your Scrooge McDuck vault rather than reading this article.
Rios had a similar stinker of a season, hitting .227 AVG/.265 OBP/.348 SLG and escaping notoriety only because of being overshadowed by Dunn's worse season.
All told, Dunn and Rios combined to finish five wins below replacement in 2011. Replacement level is set at the level of freely available players, meaning that plugging a couple minor league non-prospects in the lineup instead would have been enough to push the Sox from 79 to 84 wins last year.
If Dunn and Rios could simply play like league-average players in 2012, that would represent a nine-game swing from last season's performances and a solid jolt to Chicago's chances. (A league-average WAR is right around 2.0.) Thanks to Dunn's nine home runs, the pair has already combined for almost a win already, with 80 percent of the season to go, which means they are on their way.
[h3]Cabrera throws off the fluke label[/h3]
After making his first All-Star Game and nabbing his first Silver Slugger a season ago, Asdrubal Cabrera has kept right on hitting in 2012. He's probably not going to end the season hitting .333/.411/.548, though the .342 batting average on balls in play that is fueling that line isn't outlandish.
Cabrera's projection going into the season, .275/.333/.422, has been recalculated by the ZiPS projection system at .280/.343/.432 the rest of the way, practically identical to his 2011 season. Signed through 2014 at a total of just $21 million, the Indians have the best shortstop in the division at pennies on the dollar.
[h3]Rotation depth still an issue for Detroit[/h3]
The back of Detroit's rotation was one of the team's bugaboos for most of the first half last year, and even with Drew Smyly's amazing 1.61 ERA after five major league starts and a strikeout rate even better than Justin Verlander's, it's still an issue going forward. Rick Porcello still hasn't taken that step forward that's been predicted for years; Jacob Turner is coming off shoulder issues; and Andy Oliver has been walking batters by the dozen.
Doug Fister and, more importantly, Fister's changeup are back in Detroit, and Max Scherzer's 3.85 FIP is much lower than his 6.32 ERA, which suggests he has been the victim of some bad luck. But bad things happen to pitchers, and Detroit is walking a very fine line. Keith Law had the Tigers as the 24th-ranked farm system, so pulling out a miracle acquisition in July will be tough.
The only consolation here is that the Indians' and White Sox's farm systems ranked even worse.
[h3]Williams won't be afraid to make moves[/h3]
This is perhaps a more intangible factor, but Kenny Williams' position as general manager in Chicago looks more precarious than ever, and the departure of former manager Ozzie Guillen was, in some respects, Williams' last "Get Out of Jail Free" card. Williams has always been an aggressive GM when the opportunity has presented itself -- with mixed results -- and if the Sox remain in striking distance in a couple months, he's not going to pass up an interesting transaction.
Not many teams would have been audacious enough to bring in Manny Ramirez after nobody wanted him or been willing to take a chance on Rios' entire contract. These moves frequently don't work out, but the Tigers won't be able to count on Chicago playing passive.
[h3]Valverde attempts to prove the Gambler's Fallacy[/h3]
The Gambler's Fallacy is the name assigned to the tendency of some gamblers to believe that luck mystically balances out good fortune with an extra bit of bad fortune just to keep the odds even. It's a little like believing in the Tooth Fairy, though the Tooth Fairy at least pays off in currency (I once received a Nintendo game).
After a 2.24 ERA in 2011 and 49-for-49 in save opportunities, Jose Valverde has already blown two saves and sports an ERA just on the good side of 6. With a FIP of 5.32, he's really pitching that poorly, walking nearly six batters a game.
Valverde's velocity isn't down, but he's just been too darn hittable, with batters making contact on 81 percent of swings and only 9 percent of his pitches resulting in swinging strikes, both career-worsts for the Tigers' closer.
[h3]Chicago's bullpen survives Santos trade[/h3]
When Sergio Santos went to the Toronto Blue Jays and Chris Sale went to the rotation, the Pale Hose pen was a little on the light side. But with Addison Reed's early performance (no runs and 12 strikeouts in nine innings) and scattered contributions from Zach Stewart and Nate Jones, the bullpen has been better than it had any right to be.
Sale's return to the bullpen is one my least favorite moves of the year, but he's a significant upgrade at closer compared to Hector Santiago, who has been serially unable to keep the ball down this year. Dylan Axelrod was moved to the rotation to replace Sale, but he was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte after turning in a "meh" start for the White Sox last Sunday. Before that start, Axelrod struck out 26 batters and walked four in 25 innings at Charlotte.
[h3]Tigers offense falling short of expectations[/h3]
Detroit's lineup was supposed to make up for any pitching shortcomings, but at ninth in the AL in runs the Tigers are not a 90-win team. Even if Prince Fielder can repeat his 2011 in a rather dismal park for a plodding slugger, the lineup has a number of holes (second base, left field, right field) dragging down some good starts by most of the front-line hitters.
Brennan Boesch has been completely lost at the plate, and Delmon Young has done a better job hitting people than baseballs this year. What makes it all worse is the team can't really absorb a loss because of injury by any of its starters, with so little depth that the team already resorted to experimenting with 31-year-old journeyman Brad Eldred before April was out.
[h3]Indians get a lift from Kipnis[/h3]
Having finished ninth in the AL in runs in 2011, Cleveland really needed to add one more bat to last year's lineup. The Tribe was hoping that Grady Sizemore would get healthy or Shin-Soo Choo would bounce back or Casey Kotchman would repeat his surprising 2011. Instead, the key to the Indians' early-season surge has been Jason Kipnis ' continual power development.
From moderate power in the minors, Kipnis has now hit 12 homers in 275 MLB plate appearances, a 26-homer pace (per 600 PA). ZiPS projects Kipnis to finish the season at .266/.333/.442 with 20 homers, terrific production for a second baseman who can handle the position, and it would live up to the team's expectations after drafting him in the second round in 2009.
Projecting the rest of the season using ZiPS, Detroit remains the favorite, with odds of winning the division right at 50/50, which is down from its preseason odds of 71 percent.
The Tigers still have plenty of time to put everything together and the benefit of having Verlander pitch every fifth game, but the playoffs are no longer a given, as they have allowed the White Sox and Indians to hang around and be real contenders in the division race.
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Beltran as of 5/8 has 10 home runs & Pujols has 1. It's still early, but it's going to be hilarious if Carlos out-performs Albert all season.
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It would be hilarious. But you and I both know that Beltran is always one play away from an injury.
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I just remembered that the Reds traded Volquez for Hamilton. Ouch.
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Hello Addison Reed.Originally Posted by Proshares
Sale going to have an MRI on his elbow
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forget the 1 HR he has.........Albert is batting .190 on the season!!!!!!!!!!
As much as i didnt want him to succeed for jilting the cardinals.........im starting to feel bad for him. (mainly because i know he felt like the cardinals had no faith in him after their lowball offer>)
But then again, that lowball offer that made him leave was probably a good thing.......in hindsight anyway.
He didnt like pressure in stl with OUR media.........the hell made him think he would deal with the LA media the same way? the fans too.......He is probably just uncomfortable in that place.
As much as i didnt want him to succeed for jilting the cardinals.........im starting to feel bad for him. (mainly because i know he felt like the cardinals had no faith in him after their lowball offer>)
But then again, that lowball offer that made him leave was probably a good thing.......in hindsight anyway.
He didnt like pressure in stl with OUR media.........the hell made him think he would deal with the LA media the same way? the fans too.......He is probably just uncomfortable in that place.
do work son
Banned
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the biggest fan of albert's slow start? jose bautista. batting .187 with an OBP .318
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How many former drug addicts get paid...I don't know, given how recently he fell off the wagon.Originally Posted by madj55
Originally Posted by Proshares
Hamilton
He's getting PAID this offseason
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Ehh.... Was never a bautista fan, he always seemed like a one hit wonder to me.
Cards finally sweep.......FINALLY!!!!
Cards finally sweep.......FINALLY!!!!
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