2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Fixes for five October sleepers.

Spoiler [+]
As we move closer to July, the truly good and bad teams begin to really soar or sink. But in between, there are 10-15 teams whose place in the ESPN Power Rankings will vary from week to week, and a few teams that currently reside in the bottom half of the rankings may find themselves with tickets to the dance come October if they are able to improve in certain respects.

Four of the teams in the bottom 15 of the rankings -- the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies -- entered Sunday's play in the top 15 in team wins above replacement, and a fifth -- the Detroit Tigers -- still finds itself in an enviable position despite its lackluster play.

Despite their recent struggles, these five teams should not be written off. Let's look at what each needs to do to vault back up the Power Rankings, and, more importantly, the standings.

Last season, the Cardinals rode to the World Series thanks in large part to a bullpen that combined to post a 2.55 ERA in the National League Division and Championship Series. But while that bullpen returned most of its members this season, its stellar play has not.

As a unit, St. Louis' bullpen has posted a 4.26 ERA that ranks 23rd in the game this season, and its 4.23 FIP ranks 27th overall. Losing Jaime Garcia hurts, and guys like Rafael Furcal and Matt Adams are not pulling their weight lately. (Adams was sent back to Triple-A, in fact.) If Chris Carpenter and Lance Berkman return in the next month, that will help tremendously. But the bullpen needs to improve -- particularly Jason Motte and Marc Rzepczynski, whose four meltdowns apiece in the past 30 days place them among the worst relievers in the league.

June has been a good month for the Diamondbacks -- they have the best run differential (plus-41) for the month, and only the New York Yankees have won more games than the D-backs, who are 14-7 now after sweeping the Chicago Cubs this past weekend. And with Stephen Drew possibly -- finally -- returning from the disabled list this week, the offense could get even better.

But the key for Arizona is the level of its competition. While the D-backs are 24-12 with a plus-48 run differential against teams worse than .500 this season, they are just 13-23 and have been outscored by 24 runs against teams that are better than .500. They haven't won a series against a team better than .500 since the first series of the year against the San Francisco Giants. This has not changed even in June, as the club dropped four of six to the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels in interleague play. The Diamondbacks will face a good test this week on the road against the Atlanta Braves, who took three of four in Arizona back in April.

The Phillies' descent to the basement has come from a lot of little things going awry. The combination of Ty Wigginton playing more and Freddy Galvis getting hurt has helped downgrade the team from middling to subpar. The bullpen keeps finding ways to fail at the worst possible times, like Sunday when Antonio Bastardo coughed up a three-run homer right on the heels of seven shutout innings from Cole Hamels.

And all of a sudden Cliff Lee is pitching like Joe Blanton, as the lefty has allowed 31 baserunners and compiled a 6.30 ERA in his past three starts. But even with the losses mounting this month, the club still finds itself only 5½ games back in the wild-card hunt. If the Phillies can find a way to start putting whole games together, they can get back in the race.

Also 5½ games back in the NL wild-card race are the Brewers. The Brew Crew is ranked 23rd in the Power Rankings this week, but they entered Sunday with the ninth highest WAR, giving them a case for the most underrated team in the game. Milwaukee has posted a positive run differential since the end of April but does not have the winning record to match.

One of the reasons the two have not matched up may be the team's defense, which ranks in the game's lower third. Chief among the laggards has been Rickie Weeks. The All-Star second baseman has picked up his efforts at the dish recently, but so far this season his fielding has reverted to 2005-06 levels, when he was still trying to break into the league. Weeks entered Sunday's play with one of the five worst UZRs (minus-10.9) in baseball.

The Brewers, however, look like a squadron of Gold Glovers compared to the Tigers. Detroit continues to pitch remarkably well, but its defense has already cost the team the equivalent of more than three wins. The Tigers' minus-35.2 UZR would already be one of the 11 worst defensive seasons of the past three years, and the season isn't even half over yet.

Much has been made of Miguel Cabrera's switch back to third base, but Cabrera is just one of 11 Tigers who has posted a negative UZR this season (min. 100 innings played). In fact, the only Tiger who has posted a positive UZR is center fielder Austin Jackson. The Tigers -- who have not seen first place since May 1 -- have hit much better during the past month, but they simply need to field the ball better.

Comebacks happen all the time in baseball, and usually right when we least expect them. There's no guarantee that one of this season's middling teams emerges in the second half to claim a postseason berth, but these five teams that currently find themselves on the outside looking in could be poised for such a comeback if they tighten up their problem areas.

Nick Swisher's intangible value.

Spoiler [+]
I live in the New York area, but my 12-year-old had never been to a game at Yankee Stadium until Monday night. She loved the massive scoreboard and hated the foul balls that zoomed past us repeatedly on the left field side.

And while she decided as a child to give her allegiance to the Boston Red Sox -- her Kevin Youkilis shirt is now outdated, I told her Monday morning -- she got a kick out of the exuberance of Nick Swisher. "I think he's my favorite player," she said as he ran off the field after the top of the eighth inning.

Her response was directly related to his effort -- nothing more, nothing less.

By the eighth inning, the New York Yankees had control of the game against the Cleveland Indians, carrying a 7-0 lead. Hiroki Kuroda came out to start the inning with his pitch count at 100, with an outside chance at a shutout. Lonnie Chisenhall laced a ball into right-center field, a hit, and as he came out of the box, the Cleveland DH was thinking about taking second base.

But Swisher rushed into the alley, hustling to cut the ball off, and he fired back toward the infield, holding Chisenhall to a single.

In a perfect world, this is what Swisher and others should always do. But the reality is that this doesn't always happen, especially when the outcome is decided, as it was by the eighth inning last night. Sometimes players don't hustle, don't care enough.

But Swisher had scrambled after the ball and made a nice play, and at least one 12-year-old fan noticed.

Shin-Soo Choo doubled Chisenhall to third base, after Kuroda was relieved, and Asdrubal Cabrera hit a line drive toward right-center field -- and Swisher again rushed over to glove the ball, spin and fire toward the plate. Chisenhall hadn't tagged up, so the Yankees' shutout was intact, and the fans in Yankee Stadium cheered.

Swisher was challenged again. Jason Kipnis hit a ball to right field, Swisher made a nice catch, and Chisenhall tagged up and scored. But the baseball gods weren't through with Swisher yet: Carlos Santana lifted a long fly ball down the right field line, and Swisher raced toward the corner, catching the ball before he reached the padding along the line.

From the stands on the opposite side of the field, you could see Swisher laughing about his crazy half-inning, his exuberance filling the giant scoreboard as he jogged off and some of the fans in the park gave him a standing ovation.

Some opposing players and coaches -- and fans -- don't like Swisher because they think he's too expressive, too showy, and that some of what he does is for effect and nothing more.

All I can say is this: Swisher's energy level is the same four hours before a game as it is when the cameras are on. He is loud and boisterous for batting practice. He is grinning and waving his hands when you talk to him in the clubhouse. He wears the same big smile when he's chatting with a teammate alone in the runway that leads to the Yankees' dugout.

The guy loves to play and consistently competes with the same level of energy in the eighth inning of a forgettable June game as he would in the playoffs in October, and there is value in that. It might not be worth nearly as much as Stephen Strasburg's pure stuff or Joey Votto's ability to get on base or the defense that Adam Jones provides for the Baltimore Orioles.

But it's worth something. Ask Charlie Manuel, who arrives at the park every day knowing that Juan Pierre will be on the field 5½ hours before a game practicing his bunting or his throwing or his break from first base. Ask Jim Leyland, who knows that Justin Verlander will always be prepared and will always be in shape and will always take him through at least six innings. Ask Ron Washington, who knows that any effort to take Adrian Beltre out of the lineup might require some sort of argument, regardless of whether Beltre is limping or bruised.

Or ask a 12-year-old, who went to a ballgame and came away appreciating a ballplayer -- a member of a team she does not like -- because of the passion he played with and showed on her first trip to a big league park.

Swisher has no regrets about what he said last weekend.

Dewayne Wise also had a good night for the Yankees, writes Zach Berman.

The Yankees hit their 115th home run in their 72nd game of the season Monday. That tied the 2002 team for the most homers through 72 games in franchise history (the '09 team, which won the World Series, had 108).
[h3]A new Youk era[/h3]
The Kevin Youkilis era began for the Chicago White Sox on Monday, and the Anthony Rizzo era starts tonight for the Chicago Cubs.

Youkilis was in the No. 2 spot in the lineup, with Gordon Beckham being bumped down.

Whether Youkilis can still be a productive hitter remains to be seen, but at the very least, he and Adam Dunn will force opposing pitchers to work hard. They rank No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in pitches per plate appearance at 4.58 and 4.55.

Youkilis said that what he went through Sunday was the most emotional thing he's felt in baseball. Youkilis is going to be missed in Boston, writes Bob Ryan.
[h3]Elsewhere[/h3]
• Chris Carpenter had a setback, as Derrick Goold writes.

• Other clubs are monitoring the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies to see if they're going to become sellers in the next few weeks, but at least one of the would-be trade targets is dealing with an injury: Shaun Marcum tried to play catch, and it didn't work out that well.

To this point, by the way, the Phillies have not put Cole Hamels or Shane Victorino on the market, sources say.

• Trevor Bauer is going to make his major league debut Thursday, and this is expected to bolster an already strong Arizona Diamondbacks surge.

And meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers know that Matt Kemp will be out at least a few more weeks. This probably means, of course, that Kemp won't be able to participate in the Home Run Derby, for which he is a captain.

• The Blue Jays' injury situation has gotten absurd: A fourth member of their rotation got hurt.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Houston Astros signed a top pick.

2. The San Francisco Giants have to make a decision on Brad Penny.

3. A couple of Twins relievers are splitting the closer's role.

4. Adam Lind was promoted to the big leagues and will face some lefties, says John Farrell.

5. The Kansas City Royals are going to shake up their rotation.

6. Miguel Tejada was granted his release by the Orioles.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Derek Holland is making progress in his rehab.

2. Troy Tulowitzki says he's been battling pain all year.

3. Knee tendinitis is affecting Alex Avila.

4. Victor Martinez could provide a big lift for the Detroit Tigers.

5. Jeremy Hellickson will likely return to the Tampa Bay rotation Saturday.

6. The Cincinnati Reds are hoping for a jolt from Drew Stubbs.

7. Within this notebook, there is word that Josh Beckett is making progress.

8. Mark DeRosa came off the disabled list and replaced Xavier Nady.

9. The Phillies should never again wait for Chase Utley in the way they did this year, writes Phil Sheridan.
[h3]By The Numbers[/h3]
From ESPN Stats and Info

16: Games with four or more strikeouts by Adam Dunn, the second-most such games behind Ryan Howard since 2001.
24: Consecutive strikes thrown by Mat Latos on Monday, the longest streak by a Reds pitcher in a game since pitch data is available (going to 2000).
398: Career home runs by David Ortiz, tying Dale Murphy for 51st on the all-time list.
1998: The last time a pitcher allowed at least eight runs in a complete game prior to Alex Cobb on Monday.
[h3]NL West notes[/h3]
• The Giants are now only two games behind the Dodgers after a Barry Zito-led shutout.

• The D-backs' hitters have been on a roll.

• Jeff Francis and the Colorado Rockies found a way to beat one of the best pitchers in the majors, as Patrick Saunders writes.

• Dee Gordon proves you can't keep a good young man down, writes T.J. Simers.

• Carlos Quentin hoisted the San Diego Padres on his shoulders.
[h3]NL East notes[/h3]
• Heath Bell and the Miami Marlins blew a huge lead. Bell says he deserves a slap in the face.

• Jason Heyward was the player of the week.

• The New York Mets looked lifeless in a loss to the Cubs, writes Andrew Keh.

• Stephen Strasburg's winless streak was snapped. Tyler Moore is much more at ease in his second time around.

• The Philadelphia bats came to life, with Jimmy Rollins mashing another homer.
[h3]NL Central notes[/h3]
• Milwaukee got shut down.

• St. Louis mounted a huge comeback.

• Travis Wood shut down the Mets, writes Paul Sullivan.

• Mat Latos was dominant, racking up 13 strikeouts.

From ESPN Stats and Info, how Latos was so good:

A) Latos threw a career-high 43 sliders and induced a career-best 16 swings-and-misses on the pitch. The 16 swings-and-misses were the most any pitcher has had on sliders in a game this season.
B) Latos also had eight swings-and-misses on his fastball, giving him a career-best 24 whiffs. That's the fourth-most by any pitcher this season and the most by a Reds starter in the past four seasons.
C) Latos finished with a career-high 13 strikeouts, which came on fastballs (six) and sliders (seven). Seven of his strikeouts were on three pitches, tied for the most by any starter this season.
D) Latos pounded his fastball in the zone and used his slider as a chase pitch. He threw 35 of his 49 fastballs (71 percent) in the strike zone, the highest percentage of his career. He threw just 10 of his 43 sliders (23 percent) in the zone, but Brewers hitters chased 17 out of the zone. Nine of the 12 outs he recorded on his slider, including all seven strikeouts, were out of the zone.

• Jeff Karstens was knocked around, writes Bill Brink.
[h3]AL West notes[/h3]
• Justin Grimm was given a taste of reality.

• Josh Hamilton is searching for answers, writes Jeff Wilson.

• Tommy Milone was The Man for the Oakland Athletics.

• Bill Plunkett asks the question: Are Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo headed to the All-Star Game?
[h3]AL Central notes[/h3]
• Rick Porcello had one of his best outings of the year.

• Francisco Liriano helped the Minnesota Twins and built his trade value, as well.

• Luke Hochevar was excellent against the Rays.

• Cleveland has its top two starters in order, it appears.
[h3]AL East notes[/h3]
• Alex Cobb was lit up.

• Felix Doubrant was shelled, writes Brian MacPherson.

Yordano Ventura a work in progress.

Spoiler [+]
The Kansas City Royals will be represented at next month's MLB Futures Game, held at Kaufman Stadium, by three prospects, including outfielder Wil Myers and right-hander Jake Odorizzi. Their third Futures Game participant, Yordano Ventura, started for the high Class A Wilmington Blue Rocks on Monday night at Pfitzner Stadium against the Potomac Nationals.

Ventura has an electric arm, reaching 100 mph in the past and topping out at 98 on Monday night (although that particular pitch ended up over the left-field fence), coming from the Pedro Martinez model of pitcher -- undersized but loose-armed with comically easy velocity. Ventura sat 94-97 for most of seven easy innings, with that home run, by a Nationals hitter who was sitting fastball, the only real blemish on his stat line. His control was fine but his command wasn't -- you could see the concept of an approach, but execution was spotty. He threw predominantly fastballs, mixing in an 81-83 mph curveball with depth that he threw for strikes but that didn't have tight rotation despite its velocity, maybe an average pitch but not the off-speed weapon he'll need to be an effective big league starter.

Ventura's arm action is pretty clean in back and he boosts his velocity with a long stride and good hip rotation to generate torque, but his landing is very inconsistent -- he nearly knocked himself over more than once after release. That inconsistency probably drives the spotty fastball command, and his trouble finishing well out over his front side may be why he can't get sharper break on that hard curveball. I would love to see Ventura work out as a starter, and since he just turned 21 earlier this month there is still plenty of time for him to develop into one, but he has several steps to take before he'll project as a guy who can turn a lineup over three times.

• The Blue Rocks' lineup included three big-bonus prospects, two of whom looked promising. Orlando Calixte has bat speed and loose, quick wrists; his swing gets a little long and he can get his weight out front early, but he did a nice job of dropping the bat head in his last at-bat for a dead-pull home run to give Wilmington the lead in the ninth. He showed good actions at short and plenty of arm to stay there, although he was challenged on only one play. Third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert, a top-50 prospect for me coming into the season, showed the good approach and simple, strong swing that I liked from him in the past; he's very balanced throughout the swing and should produce plenty of line drives to all fields, making his season to date something of a mystery. I wouldn't give up on him at all. Outfielder Brett Eibner looks like a lost cause right now; he's always had trouble recognizing breaking balls and that's all he's going to see until that changes, with 30 punchouts in his past 67 games. I wonder if we'll see Eibner -- who was a good two-way player at Arkansas -- on a mound in instructional league this September.

• Cole Kimball started for Potomac, going two innings in a rehab appearance, and was 88-90 with a big, very slow curveball at 69-71. His arm slot is high, which can give some hitters trouble the first or second time they see him, but the stuff was below-average, and, as Josh Collmenter can attest, that trick doesn't work twice.

• A few readers asked for my take on the Kevin Youkilis trade, which isn't that different from the takes offered by many other analysts: This is just a modest salary dump for the Boston Red Sox, and a modest upside play for the Chicago White Sox. The main concerns I have about Youkilis are health (obviously) and his unexpected tendency in 2012 to hit everything into the ground, with a career-high ground ball rate of 50.9 percent according to FanGraphs; his bat looks slower, and his swing looks flatter, but it's possible that those are tied to the back injury rather than just age, which is probably Chicago's hope in making this deal. A return even partway to where he was last year would be a big boost for the White Sox, who have been playing a mushroom at third for much of the season.

As for the players headed to Boston -- I was a big Zach Stewart fan after seeing him in the 2010 Eastern League playoffs, but his velocity has been down the past two years and unless it returns he's just a bullpen piece, a sinker/slider guy who has been disgustingly homer-prone as a big league starter. Brent Lillibridge can play many positions but doesn't field well enough to be an everyday shortstop and, last year's weird power spike notwithstanding, doesn't have the bat to be a regular anywhere else, but has value in this era of 12- and 13-man pitching staffs as someone who can fill in at five or six spots.

Joey Votto lines up a record.

Spoiler [+]
Some records in baseball have become legendary over the years, to the point where most baseball fans know exactly the number and the record holder. The records for most career no-hitters (seven, Nolan Ryan), longest hitting streak (56 games, Joe DiMaggio), consecutive games played (2,632, Cal Ripken) and stolen bases in a season (130, Rickey Henderson) are some of the more famous numbers in the sport and have stood the test of time, with few challengers since they were established. There's another record that hasn't been seriously threatened in 75 years that is coming under assault this season, but you probably haven't heard much about it yet -- Joey Votto is poised to make a run at the record for most doubles in a season.

The current record holder is Earl Webb, who hit 67 doubles for the Boston Red Sox in 1931. He broke George Burns' record of 64 doubles, set five years earlier. In fact, only six players in history have recorded 60 or more doubles in a season, and all of six of them did it in the 11 seasons from 1926 to 1936. For hitters, it was the golden age of the double.

The last player to make a run at Webb's record was Todd Helton in 2000. Aided by playing in Coors Field during the peak of the offensive surge at the turn of the century, Helton finished the season with 59 doubles, and his season represents the gold standard for modern-day doubles production. Yet with 30 doubles in his first 68 games, Votto is on pace to obliterate Helton's mark and actually run down Webb as well.

At his current pace, Votto would end the season with 71 doubles, and while history suggests he probably can't keep hitting doubles at this pace, he is the perfect modern-day hitter to challenge Webb's record.

[h3][/h3]
[Votto] hasn't hit a single popup all year, which might be weird if he didn't go the entire 2010 season without hitting an infield fly.

Doubles require line drives, because line drives are hit hard enough to get into the gaps or down the lines and are not hit high enough to clear any fences for a home run. Among the 330 players with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2002, only two (Mark Loretta and Helton) have a higher line-drive rate than Votto's 24.8 percent. He's turned things up in 2012, posting a ridiculous 33.0 percent line-drive rate this season, up from the 27.5 percent mark he posted last year and easily the best single-season line-drive rate since batted ball data began being collected.

In addition to hitting line drives, Votto is also remarkable at avoiding infield flies -- the kinds of balls in play that are outs nearly 100 percent of the time. He hasn't hit a single popup all year, which might be weird if he didn't go the entire 2010 season without hitting an infield fly. In fact, his one popup from last year is starting to look like the aberration. When Votto hits the ball, it goes out, not up.

He also excels in one other skill critical to racking up a lot of doubles -- driving the ball to the opposite field. Taking out his 13 home runs, Votto has put 170 balls in the field of play this season -- 60 to left, 63 to center, 49 to right. His opposite-field power is the driving force behind his run at Webb's doubles records, as half of his 30 doubles have come on balls hit to left field. He's the league leader in opposite-field doubles with 15, but his eight doubles to center field rank fourth in the league, and there are 45 hitters with more pulled doubles this season than Votto. For Votto, left field is his doubles sweet spot.

This combination of high line-drive rate and willingness to go to the opposite field is the perfect recipe for a lot of extra-base hits that don't quite clear the wall, and while Votto runs pretty well for a first baseman, he doesn't run so well that he's likely to keep on going for third. If Votto was a right-handed hitter, he'd likely have a better chance at turning some of those doubles into triples, but given his average speed and the fact that he's hitting the ball toward third base, he's more likely to settle for two bases instead of trying for three. Being a high doubles hitter requires an interesting combination of skills, and no player in today's game specializes in these more than Votto.

If anything is going to keep him from the record, though, it might just be his home park. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati has historically been a below-average park for doubles because the shorter fences convert would-be doubles into home runs. In fact, GABP has historically inflated home runs by right-handed hitters (most of whom pull the ball to left field, which is Votto's doubles field) by 13 percent, while playing as a just slightly-below-average doubles park due to those home runs.

When you look at the parks that historically inflate doubles (Colorado, Boston, Arizona), you begin to understand why Helton, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Luis Gonzalez and Matt Holliday have all managed seasons with at least 50 doubles in the past 10 years. Since the Reds opened their new stadium, they've had only two hitters get even 40 doubles in a season -- Sean Casey in 2004 and Votto last year.

So, can Votto break Webb's record?

It won't be easy, as he'll need 38 doubles over the Reds' remaining 94 games, and he's never hit more than 40 in 161 games in any prior season. Even with Votto's predilection for line drives to the opposite field, the game has changed dramatically since Webb played, as the league average strikeout rate is now more than twice what it was back in 1931, while the average home run rate is twice as high. More strikeouts and more home runs equal many fewer chances for doubles, which is why no one has crossed the 60-double mark in 75 years. Votto's halfway there, though, and has more than half the season remaining, so Webb could be in for his first real challenge in a very long time.

The worst rotation ever?

Spoiler [+]
This year, the combined ERA of all major league pitchers is 3.97, which strongly suggests that last year's 3.94 ERA -- MLB's lowest since 1992 -- wasn't simply a fluke. Whether you think the cause of the 1990s surge was juiced players, juiced baseballs or something else, runs are a lot harder to find than they were in 2000, when baseball's ERA peaked at 4.77.

However, not all teams received the memos, apparently, with the rotations of the Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies not noticing the age of austerity we've entered.

Being the best at something is a terrific way to be remembered in history, but terrible is another path to immortality. The 1962 Mets are fondly remembered despite going 40-120, but other recent teams that weren't quite as good at being bad have been forgotten.

So, just how bad are Minnesota's and Colorado's starters this year? Bad like losing your car keys? Bad like breaking your foot? Bad like the sun running out of hydrogen and growing into a red giant that finishes the job of incinerating the earth?

Entering Tuesday play, Twins starters have combined for a 5.89 ERA, sneaking below 6.00 only in the past few days. The Rockies aren't even close to the happy day of getting their starting ERA to that point, with a rotation ERA of 6.36 just a couple of weeks from the All-Star Game.

Levels of offense and park effects can have a gigantic effect on a team's runs allowed. Pitching at Coors Field and Petco Park are very different experiences, even with the former's addition of a humidor. So, to compare teams, I'm using Baseball-Reference.com's ERA+, which compares ERA to what a league-average ERA in that particular park and year would be -- 100 is league average, with larger numbers being good and smaller numbers being bad.

[h4]Worst rotations[/h4]
The least successful staffs since 1950, based on Baseball-Reference.com's ERA+ (100 is league average, with lower being worse).
[table][tr][th=""]
Rank
[/th][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
ERA+
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
1,532
[/td][td]
2012 Twins
[/td][td]
66.3
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,531
[/td][td]
2003 Reds
[/td][td]
71.5
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,530
[/td][td]
2005 Royals
[/td][td]
73.2
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,529
[/td][td]
1984 Giants
[/td][td]
73.6
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,528
[/td][td]
1977 Padres
[/td][td]
73.7
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,527
[/td][td]
2012 Rockies
[/td][td]
73.7
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,526
[/td][td]
1997 Athletics
[/td][td]
74.7
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,525
[/td][td]
1998 Marlins
[/td][td]
74.8
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,524
[/td][td]
1964 K.C. A's
[/td][td]
74.8
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1,523
[/td][td]
1956 Senators
[/td][td]
75.0
[/td][/tr][/table]

Since 1950, there have been 1,532 teams. Among those teams, the Twins' starters, with an ERA+ of 66.3 -- serve as the caboose, bringing up the rear at 1,532nd (see chart). At this point in the season, it's not even close. The second-worst team -- the 2003 Reds -- had a 71.5 rotation ERA+. Minnesota is not alone among current squads near the bottom, as Colorado ranks 1,527th with a 73.7 ERA+, albeit practically a Strasburg-esque performance compared to what we've seen in the Twin Cities.

Batters are hitting .307/.359/.518 against Minnesota starters, meaning they turn a league-average hitter into the 2012 version of Miguel Cabrera.

The natural question is to what degree this should have been expected going into the season, whether it's the quality of the pitchers, bad luck or some combination of the two. To get a look at this, I used the preseason ZiPS projections for the Twins' and Rockies' rotations as a starting point and added the actual 2012 innings totals.

With the actual inning distribution for 2012, ZiPS projected the Twins would have a rotation ERA of 4.97 at this point, about a run below their actual figure but not exactly something they should be crowing about. Minnesota's rotation consists of one strikeout pitcher with less control than a bumper car (Francisco Liriano) and a whole horde of pitchers who never strike anybody out. P.J. Walters is the team's second-best strikeout starter this year at a woeful 5.6 K's per nine.

Using actual innings, ZiPS expected the Rockies to have a 5.02 ERA at this point, more than a run better than the current 6.36 ERA, so the team has a little to complain about with a 5.02 ERA being only a little below league average for a starter in Coors Field in 2012. A Rockies team without a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge de la Rosa just doesn't have the depth to be a contender, even in a weak division.

With 90 games still to go, the Minnesota starting pitchers are seriously vying to put their own stamp on history. It'll take a lot of clutch run allowing to make them the greatest at being the worst.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Moyer to face Hultzen[/h3]
4:19PM ET

[h5]Jamie Moyer | Rockies [/h5]


FUN FACT: Moyer will start for the 51s Thursday in Tacoma -- the Triple-A club of Moyer's former team the Seattle Mariners -- versus last June's No. 2 overall draft pick Danny Hultzen, who will be making his home debut and just his second start in the PCL.

...

Unwanted in Baltimore, the Blue Jays signed veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer to a minor league contract on Monday night.

Moyer was %u201D<a href=/toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120626&content_id=33942560&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor%u201D">http://toronto.bluejays.m...s_tor&c_id=tor%u201D" target=new>given no guarantees by the Jays and will report to Triple-A Las Vegas for a few starts.

The 49-year-old Moyer has a realistic shot to land with the Blue Jays, at least temporarily, since Toronto's starting rotation has been devastated by injuries during the past two weeks. Right-handers Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison were all placed on the 15-day disabled list, while Henderson Alvarez was forced to depart Monday night's game in Boston because of soreness in his right elbow.

The Blue Jays tried the same type of deal a few weeks ago with Vladimir Guerrero before parting ways with the former AL MVP.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Chad Hutchinson, Kyle Drabek, Jamie Moyer, Toronto Blue Jays

http://[h3]Puig still waiting[/h3]
4:17PM ET

[h5]Yasel Puig [/h5]

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Cuban defector Yasiel Puig, a 21-year-old outfielder, has already established residency in Mexico and is slated to work out for MLB clubs next week, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. And if all goes according to plan, Puig could be declared a free agent and signed by a team as soon as next weekend, according to his agent Jaime Torres.

Puig could get a contract similar to that of Jorge Soler, who received a nine-year, $30 million deal from the Chicago Cubs earlier in June.

The reason for such a high price? Well, aside from his age and talent, there's a key timing factor that could give Puig a lot of leverage. The new regulations set forth by the CBA allow clubs all of $2.9 million to spend on international free agents (including Cuban defectors), but that doesn't kick in until July 2. So if Puig is declared a free agent before then, teams will be fighting over his rights -- and have more money to spend.

As for the teams expected to be after Puig, ESPNDeportesLosAngeles.com's Enrique Rojas mentions the following in the link above: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

- Jason A. Churchill and Jason Catania

Tags:
San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks

http://[h3]Sizemore's progress[/h3]
3:45PM ET

[h5]Grady Sizemore | Indians [/h5]


When http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5882/grady-sizemoreGrady Sizemore had surgery to repair a herniated disc in March, the hope was that the Indians center fielder would be back sometime in June. The centerfielder told Paul Hoynes last month that the optimism has waned.

General manager Chris Antonetti said last week, however, that he believes Sizemore still has a chance to contribute this year despite Sizemore having yet to resume running after his May setback.

There is no timetable for Sizemore's return, but we do know he won't see the field in Cleveland before the All-Star break, so we're talking late July at the earliest, and that is assuming no further setbacks.

Nick Camino tweets Tuesday, however, that Sizemore has been hitting and throwing, which could be a sign he'll be sent out on a rehab assignment early in July.

- Jason A. Churchill and Doug Mittler

Tags:
Michael Brantley, Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians

http://[h3]What to expect from Rizzo[/h3]
3:30PM ET

[h5]Anthony Rizzo | Cubs [/h5]


Anthony Rizzo has been a top talent in three organizations, going from Boston to San Diego to Chicago in the past two-plus years, and while his first stints in the majors did not go well -- .141/.281/.242 in 49 games -- there is reason to believe this time will be different.

For one, he's gained more experience, tearing up the Pacific Coast League for the second year in a row. Second, his home ballpark will be much more hitter friendly. Wrigley is more of a lick-your-face lap dog, whole Petco, no pun intended, is more that of the barking guard dog that won't let you get your baseballs from its backyard.

Rizzo has even performed a little better versus left-handed pitching this season than last.

Rizzo's expected call-up pushes Bryan LaHair to the outfield regularly where the 29-year-old will gain eligibility for fantasy purposes sometime early next week, leaving first base for Rizzo for the long hail.

ESPN's Fantasy Baseball Expert, Eric Karabell, discusses whether or not fantasy owners should rush to the wire to grab Rizzo:

- Jason A. Churchill

karabell_eric_30.jpg
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Rizzo's fantasy prospects
"When it comes to ESPN standard (10-team) formats, I can't say I'm actively pining to add Rizzo, but there's obviously major upside here. We do need to forget about the 2011 big league numbers and open our minds to the potential, but at the same time most every hotshot minor leaguer with fancy numbers gets a bit overrated by overeager fantasy owners. Some prospects turn out to be Mike Trout or Will Middlebrooks. Others struggle initially like Matt Adams or Devin Mesoraco, or eventually look like Justin Smoak. I like Rizzo, and he can't help but hit better than he showed in 2011 for the Padres, but I suspect many of us also don't have leagues in which we're hurting at first base or corner infield."

Tags:
Anthony Rizzo, Bryan LaHair, Chicago Cubs
http://[h3]Who needs Greinke?[/h3]
3:17PM ET

[h5]Zack Greinke | Brewers [/h5]


Zack Greinke can become a free agent after this season and if the Milwaukee Brewers cannot extend his contract soon, they'll try and trade the right-hander, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.

Rosenthal notes that the Brewers, who sit 7 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central and 5 1/2 back in the Wildcard race, have yet to decide whether or not to buy or sell. Barring a hot streak, they're likely sellers, however, as eight teams are ahead of them in that Wildcard hunt and they are in fourth place in their division race.

Among the clubs that need a pitcher such as Greinke include the usual suspects -- New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers -- but the Detroit Tigers may need him the most.

After Justin Verlander and Doug Fister, the Tigers lack reliable starting pitching. Greinke could also be ideal in St. Louis if the Cardinals lose faith that Chris Carpenter will return in near-top form. The Toronto Blue Jays cannot be counted out, either.

- Jason A. Churchill

Tags:
Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Zack Greinke

http://[h3]The Rangers and the deadline[/h3]
2:40PM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]


[h5]Rangers have trade bait[/h5]
The Texas Rangers, who have already added Roy Oswalt to their rotation this month, may not be done tinkering with their 2012 roster as they look to hold off the Los Angeles Angels and make another run through he American League playoffs. Could more pitching be on GM Jon Daniels' wish list, or will the Rangers look to add another bat?

Deadline Strategy
The Rangers are definite buyers, though it's anyone's guess who might be their prime targets. They'll likely use their farm system and as well as any non-core players from their 25-man to get what they need, and it's more likely that Daniels seeks the kind of help that is under contract beyond 2012 first and foremost.

Money
With the new TV deal in effect and franchise records being set and broken for attendance, payroll does not appear to be any kind of issue for the Rangers this summer. The club is nowhere near the luxury tax threshold, either, even including Oswalt's pro-rated salary for the season, and all signs point to the ownership as a highly-motivated group willing to spend money on the roster.

Bait
As listed above, right, the Rangers have young talent to offer in return for proven veterans, and the recent performance by Perez, especially, could make an impact on the club's abilities at the deadline. Perez was called up Tuesday and could be auditioning for his future in the Rangers organization or as part of a future deal.

Olt, who is putting up big numbers in Double-A Frisco and may be the most likely of trade bait, tweaked a hamstring this week and will miss some time. He shouldn't be out long, however, and remains a valuable trade piece.

Profar is among the very best prospects in baseball and the chances he's included in any deal are extremely remote. One would have to believe it would require a superstar player in return, and one under contract for at least a couple of additional seasons.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that a core player could be included in the right trade -- Michael Young, perhaps? -- and while it's not unheard of (See: Red Sox, Boston), contenders aren't known for dealing away valuable veterans in July.

Targets
It's my opinion that no matter how well Oswalt pitches, the Rangers will consider starting pitchers Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Wandy Rodriguez and Zack Greinke -- if available -- before the deadline. Bullpen arms are always in play and the one thing the Rangers lack is a left-handed weapon to neutralize the better lefty hitters in the league. Perhaps the Twins' Glenn Perkins will be available at a price the Rangers like. The San Diego Padres could be willing to moving Joe Thatcher and if the Royals are open to discussing Tim Collins, either might be a fit for the Rangers.

If other big-name talents become available, we have to consider the Rangers in the same light we've considered the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox the past several years. If he's good and available, the Rangers are interested. Justin Morneau? Denard Span?

- Jason A. Churchill

Tags:
Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Zack Greinke, Wandy Rodriguez, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Tanner Scheppers, Leonys Martin, Michael Young

http://[h3]Bauer to debut Thursday?[/h3]
1:36PM ET

[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]


All signs are pointing to Trevor Bauer making his major league debut for the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday against the Atlanta Braves.

Bauer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2011 draft, was pulled from his start Sunday at Triple-A Reno after 50 pitches and 22/3 innings, leading to speculation he'll get the start Thursday in Atlanta place of the injured Joe Saunders. While the D-backs have made no formal announcement, Scott Bordow of the Arizona Republic said it would "a shocker" if Bauer does not start Thursday.

Bauer is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 16 starts this season and leads all minor-league pitchers with 116 strikeouts.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Arizona Diamondbacks, Joe Saunders

http://[h3]Pipp'd closers?[/h3]
1:09PM ET

[h5]Closers [/h5]

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With Tampa Bay's Kyle Farnsworth and Washington's Drew Storen each on their way back to the big leagues from the disabled list and Brandon League having held opponents scoreless in seven of his last eight appearances including the last four in a row, one might expect each of the three to return to their closer roles and start racking up saves.

There is one problem, however: Their replacements have performed at such high levels, none of the three are likely to get their jobs back anytime soon.

The Rays' Fernando Rodney has 20 saves in 21 chances and has compiled a 31-5 K/BB ratio and a 1.10 ERA in 34 appearances. Tyler Clippard, the Nationals' top setup man a year ago, has 12 saves in 13 chances and has not given up a run since May 16, a span of 16 appearances.

Seattle's Tom Wilhelmsen, the owner of one of the most devastating curveballs in the game, has five saves in June and enters play Sunday with a 16 2/3 scoreless innings streak. He's also whiffed 17 and walked just three in that span, perhaps leaving League in a setup role for the long haul.

All three certainly have a chance to eventually get back their ninth-inning responsibilities, but it doesn't appear it will occur anytime soon for League, and both Storen and Farnsworth seem headed for a setup role once they return from the disabled list. Nationals skipper Davey Johnson said as much in regards to Storen.

- Jason A. Churchill

Tags:
Brandon League, Kyle Farnsworth, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Tom Wilhelmsen, Fernando Rodney

http://[h3]Headley drawing interest[/h3]
1:08PM ET

[h5]Chase Headley | Padres [/h5]


As we have speculated all season, San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley is a player of interest as the trade deadline nears. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets Monday afternoon that teams have called on the switch-hitter.

Heyman adds that the Padres will ask for a lot in return for Headley, and rightfully so. The Third base market, especially now that Kevin Youkilis has been moved, is quite barren, and Headley is not due for free agency until after the 2014 season.

Clubs that might see Headley as a worthy target include the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles and perhaps the Los Angeles Angels.

Whether contact by clubs develop into true negotiations remains to be seen. This is one to watch as the deadline gets closer.

- Jason A. Churchill

Tags:
Chase Headley, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles

http://[h3]The Indians at the deadline[/h3]
12:40PM ET

[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]


[h5]Potential Targets for CLE[/h5]
Although they didn't get out of the gates quite as quickly this year as they did last season, the Indians have still been a surprise in the first half of 2012. No doubt, the club is looking to prevent another fool's-gold campaign -- remember, after starting out 30-15 in 2011, they went 50-67 -- and a trade or two could set the club up nicely as they try to keep pace in the AL Central with the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers.

Deadline Strategy
While it's possible GM Chris Antonetti could get cold feet after his big deadline deal a year ago for Ubaldo Jimenez didn't exactly put them over the top -- and doesn't look any better this season, either -- the fact is this is a team that doesn't necessarily need to make a splash to stay in the race. A minor adjustment here, a solid veteran there and the Indians could be in better position to make a run at the division title than they were in 2011.

Money
The Indians operate on a small-budget payroll structure that can handcuff Antonetti when it comes to taking on any additional salary. That just means he has to be a little creative by unearthing players who offer a certain skill or fit a specific need, ideally at a minimal cost. Still, it wouldn't be out of the question to see Cleveland make a run at players with expiring contracts, knowing full well that the salary comes off the books at year's end.

Bait
Thanks in part to the recent graduations of Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall and dealing Drew Pomeranz and Alex White (among others) for Jimenez, the Indians farm system isn't exactly overflowing with major league-ready players. If another team is willing to gamble on a skilled yet flawed shortstop prospect, though, either Ronny Rodriguez or Tony Wolters (both at High-A) could bring back a helpful piece. Some other assets include filler types like potential back-end starters Zach McAllister, Scott Barnes and T.J. McFarland or utility man Cord Phelps, most of whom have some big league experience.

Targets
The Indians' biggest need is a first baseman who can hit like, well, someone other than Casey Kotchman (sub-.650 OPS). Problem is, there aren't many on the market, and those who are won't be cheap enough to fit (think: Carlos Lee and Justin Morneau). That leaves the likes of Wigginton and Doumit, neither of whom is a real first baseman by trade, as the best options.

The other problem area is an outfield bat with some pop. The best candidate to fill both the power void and the hole in left field is Willingham. Granted, he's signed for two more years, but the rate ($7 mill per) is something Cleveland could actually afford (and they were hot after him in the offseason). If Victorino becomes available, the Indians would probably check in on him, too, even if he's not a true power threat.

The last area that could be addressed is the rotation. The Indians have no ace and lack a No. 2, too, so even if the money makes it unlikely, it would behoove them to consider Greinke or Garza if at all possible. Otherwise, Dempster, once healthy, would be a nice fit as a veteran to lead the rotation. Liriano -- yes, another Twin -- could be an intriguing gamble, whereas Vargas would be a more stable possibility with less upside.

There's unlikely to be a headline-grabbing move out of Cleveland this year, but if the Indians can make a smart under-the-radar addition or two, the club would be in much better position to battle it out for the division title against the Tigers and White Sox, two teams who are certain to be active.

- Jason Catania

Tags:
Cleveland Indians, Josh Willingham, Shane Victorino, Ryan Doumit, Ty Wigginton, Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Jason Vargas, Francisco Liriano

http://[h3]The Braves at the deadline[/h3]
10:44AM ET

[h5]Atlanta Braves [/h5]


[h5]Potential Targets in Atlanta[/h5]
On the bright side, the Braves are less likely to squander a huge lead in September simply because they won't have one. They play their best baseball when Chipper Jones is in the lineup and have a realistic shot of sending him out with one more round of October baseball.

Deadline Strategy
General manager Frank Wren is not afraid to pull the trigger -- right at last year's deadline, he landed outfielder Michael Bourn from Houston. The season-ending injury to Brandon Beachy suddenly has the traditionally-rich pitching franchise looking to add a starter. It could ride on how Jair Jurrjens performs over the next few weeks. If he is pitching well, as he did Friday in Boston, the Braves could be less desperate and other clubs will not be able to hold them hostage.

Money
The Braves are in the middle of the MLB pack with an $83 million payroll. Jones' $13 million salary comes off the books after the season, giving them some flexibility.

Bait
Mike Minor was viewed as almost an untouchable last July, but the lefthander's stock has fallen a bit and the Braves could be more open to deal this time. Juan Francisco would be a nice addition to any team looking to add depth at third base. The Braves had four players in Keith Law's preseason list of top 100 prospects, but it seems unlikely they would deal a pitcher such as Julio Teheran.

Targets
Look for the Braves to be among the teams to be talking regularly with Theo Epstein about Cubs righthanders Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster. The D-backs may be more willing to deal southpaw Joe Saunders than they were last July. If the Brewers decide to deal Zack Greinke, the Braves would be a nice fit. There is some talk the Braves could look to add a reliever due to the recent struggles of Jonny Venters. Another veteran bullpen arm would enable manager Fredi Gonzalez to spread around the workload more than he did last September, when Venters, Eric O'Flaherty and Craig Kimbrel may have been running on fumes.
If the Braves add a bat, they could kick the tires on a short-term rental with the Padres' Carlos Quentin. Martin Prado, already having a productive year in left field, could be freed up to give the injury-prone Jones some rest at third base.
- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Jair Jurrjens, Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Quentin, Joe Saunders, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Huston Street, Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

http://[h3]Rotation shuffle in KC?[/h3]
10:14AM ET

[h5]Kansas City Royals [/h5]


The Kansas City Royals may call up lefthander Everett Teaford from Triple-A to start Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays as part of a rotation shakeup.

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star says the Royals are pondering changes after Vin Mazzaro, Luis Mendoza and Jonathan Sanchez combined to surrender a combined 17 runs in 11 1/3 innings over the weekend in three losses to the Cardinals. Mazzaro already has been assigned to the bullpen.

The first change could come Wednesday when Teaford is in consideration to start, as are two of the organization's top prospects: right-hander Jake Odorizzi and lefty Mike Montgomery.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Luis Mendoza, Vin Mazzaro, Angel Sanchez, Everett Teaford, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays

http://[h3]Mets' quest for bullpen help[/h3]
9:48AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


The New York Mets have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball (5.17), and that was before closer Frank Francisco landed on the disabled list Sunday with an oblique strain. If the Mets are to continue their surprising start, they will need some improvement, whether it be internal or external.

Mets assistant GM John Ricco is well aware of the predicament, telling Ken Davidoff of the NY Post that while it's probably too early to make a move, "it's not too early to do the research."

Davidoff lists Houston's Brett Myers, San Diego's Huston Street, Oakland's Grant Balfour and Minnesota's Matt Capps (who landed on the DL Monday) as some of the best pieces potentially available.

General manager Sandy Alderson hasn't ruled out the possibility of taking on payroll, although he has yet to say whether the Mets will definitely be deadline buyers. Alderson will be very reluctant to giving up prospects, so it could come down to how much contract money the Mets are willing to absorb.

While the Mets need bullpen help now, they will probably have to wait until the All-Star break before they dig into the market because there currently are few sellers, tweets Buster Olney.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
New York Mets, Frank Francisco, Matt Capps, Huston Street, Brett Myers

http://[h3]Bench role for Huff[/h3]
9:19AM ET

[h5]Aubrey Huff | Giants [/h5]


The Giants' Aubrey Huff will need to be content with a bench role when he comes off the disabled list, says Alex Pavlovic of the Mercury News.

Huff, who sprained his knee in the celebration of Matt Cain's perfect game, is eligible to come off the DL Thursday, but manager Bruce Bochy would like the veteran to take a minor league rehab assignment before returning.

Even when Huff returns, he can expect no more than an occasional start at first base. Brandon Belt has been the regular starter at first the last two weeks and has a 1.033 OPS in June. Huff has started in left field, but that is the domain of Melky Cabrera.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Brandon Belt, Melky Cabrera, Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants

http://[h3]ETA for Dempster[/h3]
8:55AM ET

[h5]Ryan Dempster | Cubs [/h5]


When the Cubs' Ryan Dempster landed on the disabled list June 16 with a sore lat, it was widely reported the righthander would miss only a few starts and be back well before the July 31 deadline.

While manager Dale Sveum said there is no timetable for his return, Dempster experienced no discomfort after throwing off flat ground on Monday, reports the Sun-Times. While Dempster is unlikely to pitch during the current homestand, a return around the All-Star break seems feasible.

That would give Dempster a few starts to audition for interested teams and prove he is healthy. The Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox are among the teams recently linked to the 35-year-old.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Chicago Cubs, Ryan Dempster, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers

http://[h3]Closing duties in Minnesota[/h3]
8:32AM ET

[h5]Matt Capps | Twins [/h5]


The list of available relievers this month should include the Twins' Matt Capps, given that he will be a free agent after the season and he pitches for a last-place team.

A red flag regarding Capps, however, went up Monday when the righthander landed on the disabled list for the first time since 2008 due to right shoulder pain. Capps' value could take a notable hit if he is not healthy in a few weeks.

Manager Ron Gardenhire says the closing duties will be split between lefthander Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, who earned saves Sunday and Monday. La Velle Neal suggests Perkins could get a few more opportunities because the Twins will be careful not to overwork Burton due to his injury history.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Minnesota Twins, Matt Capps

http://[h3]End of 4-man rotation in Denver?[/h3]
8:05AM ET

[h5]Colorado Rockies [/h5]


The Rockies optioned slumping right-hander Alex White to Triple-A Colorado Springs on Monday, a move that could lead to manager Jim Tracy scrapping his highly-publicized four-man rotation.

MLB.com's Thomas Harding says left-hander Drew Pomeranz, who was sent down in May to correct delivery flaws, is the obvious candidate for a promotion. One issue is that Pomeranz pitched Sunday for Colorado Springs, throwing 101 pitches in 5 1/3 innings.

The next available start would be Thursday against the Nationals and Pomeranz would be working on short rest. The Nats could give Thursday's start to right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, who has pitched well in two long-relief appearances since being removed from the rotation.

If the Rockies decide to return to a five-man rotation, Pomeranz would fit in nicely to start Friday against San Diego. There would be no need to keep the well-rested Pomeranz under the 75 pitch limit used with the four-man rotation.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Colorado Rockies, Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Jeremy Guthrie

http://[h3]Impact of Carpenter setback[/h3]
7:44AM ET

[h5]Chris Carpenter | Cardinals [/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals were cautiously optimistic that Chris Carpenter' ailing shoulder was healing to the point where the ace righthander would be making a minor league start within a week.

That timetable has been scrapped after Carpenter still experienced weakness following a 34-pitch throwing session Friday in Kansas City.

GM John Mozeliak has recently said that knowing Carpenter's availability by July 1 would influence the players he pursues at the trade deadline. Carpenter's shaky status should only intensify the Cardinals' quest to land another starting pitcher.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the Cardinals are interested in Cubs starter Matt Garza, who is under club control through 2013. If the Cardinals are thinking bigger, the Brewers' Zack Greinke and the Phils' Cole Hamels could be pursued as expensive short-term rentals.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Matt Garza, Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

http://[h3]High price for Garza?[/h3]
7:19AM ET

[h5]Matt Garza | Cubs [/h5]


We mentioned Monday the market appears to be heating up for Cubs righthander Matt Garza.

In Sunday's Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo says at least six teams -- Braves, Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Jays, and Royals -- have expressed their interest in Garza to Cubs president Theo Epstein. The interest from the Braves may have escalated in the past week over the season-ending injury to Brandon Beachy.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports says Epstein can ask for plenty because Garza is under contract through next season. Even if arbitration is likely to take his salary well past $12 million, it's for only a season, and teams never balk at one-year commitments. Passan says Garza might bring back even more than impending free agents Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels in a July deal.

We asked Buster Olney about a possible price, and Eric Karabell whether a trade will give Garza a fantasy bump.

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
He won't be cheap
"It would take one Bü prospect, plus a couple of other above-average guys to get him. The Cubs will wait closer to the deadline to deal Garza, unless they're overwhelmed now, because they longer the wait, the more likely it is that teams will be aggressive to plug a hole in the rotation. A bidding process will begin. Garza's price is higher than Dempster's because Garza is under control next year, so you have more moving parts involved. "

karabell_eric_30.jpg
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Not a big bounce
"Garza's fantasy owners should be careful to avoid overrating him. He's good, but not great. A trade to a contender won't make him great. There's no evidence a trade will add so many more wins that his value explodes. If anything that perception makes him a sell high in real life and fantasy. Garza's K rate is down some from 2011 and his BABIP way down. He's won more than 11 games one year. Don't be shocked when his ERA in Atlanta or Boston stays near 4. "
 
Angels Bullpen Takes Flight.
Spoiler [+]
On April 30, the Los Angeles Angels had a record of 8-15 and sat 9.5 games behind the first-place Texas Rangers. Today, the Angels are 40-33. They are now only 4.5 games behind the Rangers, and tied for the second wild card with the Tampa Bay Rays. Much of the focus for the Angels success in May and June has been on rookie sensation Mike Trout, Albert Pujols‘ re-found stroke, and the overall play of Mark Trumbo.

But don’t overlook the Angels’ bullpen. After a poor start, Angels relievers have been hugely important to the team’s revived play. And it wasn’t just the addition of Ernesto Frieri in early May that turned things around for the Angels’ relief corps.

In April, Angels relievers were 0-6 with three saves, a 1.52 K/BB, and a 4.42 FIP.  Jordan Walden, then the closer, was a mess, with a 17.4 % walk rate and a 6.05 FIP. Middle relievers Jason Isringhausen and Hisanori Takahashi also lagged, with 7.43 FIP and 5.09 FIP, respectively. Scott Downs, the veteran left-hander, was the bright spot, with a 2.00 K/BB, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 100% LOB.

After Frieri arrived, things began to settle down. He shared closer duties with Downs in May. Neither allowed an earned run in the month. Walden’s move to middle relief paid off, as he raised his K/BB to 2.00 and lowered his FIP to 2.57 in 12+ innings of work. Isringhausen and Takahashi also pitched well in May, posting 2.06 FIP and 3.26 FIP, respectively. David Pauley and David Carpenter, who pitched poorly in April, continued to lag in May.

In 21 games and 55.1 innings pitched in June, the Angels’ bullpen sports the lowest team ERA in the majors at 1.95, although they are eighth in FIP at 3.20. The relievers are 4-0 with eight saves, a .226 batting average against, and a 0.49 HR/9, nearly half of home run rate as they posted in April. Frieri still hasn’t allowed an earned run since joining the Angels. Downs allowed his first of the season on June 10. As a group, the bullpen has pitched 18.1 consecutive scoreless innings over the last six games.

But there are trouble signs. (Of course there are trouble signs. Nobody’s perfect).

LaTroy Hawkins came off the disabled list in early June and added 13.2 innings to the bullpen’s efforts this month. And while his 0.66 ERA looks spiffy, it’s belied by a 3.50 FIP. His strikeout rate of 3.95 K/9 is significantly below his career average of 5.96, and his walk rate of 3.95 BB/9 is significantly above his career rate of 2.96. Not surprisingly, his first pitch strike rate (47.4%) and his swinging-strike rate  (4.0%), are at the lowest of his career.

Isringhausen, at 39, is holding batters to a .175 average with a .204 BABIP, numbers very likely to rise as the season wears on. His walk rate is in line with his career average but his strikeouts are down. Like Hawkins, his swinging-strike rate (6.6%) is the lowest of his career.

Frieri’s been untouchable but that may very well change. His 14.97 K/9 is the fifth highest among all qualified relievers since 2002 and nearly 3.00 K/9 higher than his career average. His 4.81 BB/9 is in line with his career marks and, therefore, unlikely to drop. Both his batting average against (.116) and his BABIP (.204) are well below his career norms.

Through Monday’s action, the Angels’ bullpen has pitched only 189 innings, the third least in the majors. Only the Giants and Phillies relievers have pitched fewer innings. Obviously, Angels’ starters have gone deep into games the first three months of the season, weathering the 15-day disabled list stint by Jered Weaver. But Dan Haren and Ervin Santana haven’t pitched well consistently. If that trend continues, manager Mike Scioscia is likely to rely more heavily on the ‘pen down the stretch. It remains to be seen whether the relievers will continue to pitch as well with a heavier work load.

In March, many crowned the Angels as the likely American League pennant winner. In April, many were tossing their pre-season picks out the window. Now, more than a third into the season, the Angels are playing as well as expected and are in the hunt for a postseason berth. The bullpen has been an important part of the team’s turnaround. It will need to maintain its current level of effectiveness to keep the Angels in the hunt for October.


Anthony Rizzo’s Swing.
Spoiler [+]
Few players have had the swings of fortune that Anthony Rizzo has experienced.

After being drafted in the sixth round by the Red Sox in 2007, he had an unspectacular but promising debut for an eighteen year-old in rookie ball (.286/.375/.429). Then he found out he had Hodgkin’s lymphoma and spent most of 2008 eating, sleeping, and getting chemotherapy. It took him until 2010 to really bounce back, but that year he hit .263/.334/.481 in Double-A for the Red Sox and suddenly appeared on prospect lists. Then he was traded to the Padres and hit .141 with the big league club in 153 plate appearances. Then he hit 26 home runs in Triple-A. Then he was traded to the Cubs. Then he hit 23 home runs in 284 Triple-A plate appearances.

Now the 22-year-old first baseman has been called up a second time, perhaps to stay. That’s a lot of back-and-forth swings for Rizzo. It should be no surprise, then, that his fortunes hang on his ability to sustain the changes he’s made to his swing.

If you only look at Rizzo’s best years in the minor leagues, you’d think that he didn’t need to make any changes. He had isolated slugging numbers over .200 in good parks and bad parks. When he tore up Double-A, he did it in Portland of the Eastern League — not the Pacific Coast League, where he put in a .331/.404/.652 line a year later. He struck out around 22% of the time, and had double-digit walk rates. He even stole some bags and looked good around the bag.

But there was that year he struck out 23.7% of the time in High-A for the Red Sox. And even in a short 153-PA sample, it was worrisome that he came up and whiffed on 14.3% of the pitches he saw (major league average is around 8.5% most years). A 30.1% strikeout rate, like the one he had with the Padres, takes a lot of the shine off a prospect.

And there was some reason to worry. He moved his hands a lot. He seemed to take a long path to the ball. He might have had a hole on the inside, near his hands. People began wondering if he had a slider-speed bat.

Now Rizzo has swung back to fortune. He turned 2011′s .331/.404/.652 into .342/.405/.696 this season (both PCL) and almost equaled his home run total in over 100 fewer PAs his second time in that hitter-friendly league. But more importantly, he cut his strikeout rate to 18.3% — the lowest he’s shown since he hit the high minors. Subjective reports lined up with the results. He’s cut down the wiggle. He’s moved his hands. He’s not taking as long of a path to the ball. He’s ‘fixed’ his swing. Right?

The angle isn’t great, but there isn’t a ton of publicly available Anthony Rizzo video from this year. You could try this video of his final batting practice in Des Moines, if you like. From this armchair, the reports seem warranted. He does look like he’s setting up differently. He does look like he spends less time getting into his swing. He does seem more direct to the ball.

153 plate appearances is not a huge sample, but the Padres must have seen something they were worried about. That’s a team that could use some power, and they traded away their powerful first base prospect, along with A-ball pitcher Zach Cates, for fireballer (but reliever) Andrew Cashner and A-ball outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Perhaps it was the fact that Rizzo was a pull-power lefty, and their park is not well-suited to that sort of player. Maybe it was the fact that Rizzo had some flaws in his swing.

Rizzo now has a new team and a new lease on life. His home park now augments lefty home runs by 4% compared to PetCo’s league-worst 17% suppression of the same. He’s altered facets of his swing. There isn’t much more he can learn in the minor leagues, and he seems primed for takeoff. Maybe we should have known that the pendulum would once again swing in Rizzo’s favor.


FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch – 06/26/2012.
Spoiler [+]
Delino DeShields Jr., 2B, Houston Astros
Current Level: A
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 8th
Current Value: Increasing

When it comes to prospects and stolen bases, Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton gets all the love. However, former first rounder DeShields has been quietly having a nice year in low-A ball. The 19-year-old second baseman is repeating the level (130 wRC+) after struggling there in 2011 (79 wRC+) but he’s already surpassed his steals from all of last year (30) with 51 in 58 attempts. He’s doing a better job of getting on base, both in terms of hitting for average (.274) and walking (13.4 BB%), and he’s starting to chip away at the too-high strikeout rates. DeShields’ development is going to require patience but the reward could definitely be worth the wait.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Penny Stock

The Los Angeles Angels club possessed two first round draft picks in 2009 and the organization used its 25th overall pick to select outfielder Mike Trout out of a New Jersey high school. However, the club also had the 24th overall selection and actually took Texas high school outfielder Randal Grichuk one pick ahead of the potential superstar. The Texan’s career has been derailed by injuries and inconsistencies but the good news is that he’s still just 20 years old and is looking much better in June after a dismal May in high-A ball. He has shown some power but the prospect needs a better approach at the plate, which includes more patience and better pitch recognition. Don’t give up on Grichuk just yet but it’s probably safe to say it’s going to be hard to live up to being taken one pick before Trout.

Joe Musgrove, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Current Level: R+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Undervalued

Toronto has some very impressive arms in its system, including the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Aaron Sanchez, but I’m also quite fond of 2011 supplemental first rounder Musgrove, who was taken out of a California high school with the 46th overall selection. The right-hander can fire his heater up into the 95-96 mph range and induces a plethora of ground-ball outs. In two appearances in advanced rookie ball in 2012, he’s struck out nine batters and allowed five hits, without issuing a walk, in 8.0 innings of work. At 6’5â€
 
Angels Bullpen Takes Flight.
Spoiler [+]
On April 30, the Los Angeles Angels had a record of 8-15 and sat 9.5 games behind the first-place Texas Rangers. Today, the Angels are 40-33. They are now only 4.5 games behind the Rangers, and tied for the second wild card with the Tampa Bay Rays. Much of the focus for the Angels success in May and June has been on rookie sensation Mike Trout, Albert Pujols‘ re-found stroke, and the overall play of Mark Trumbo.

But don’t overlook the Angels’ bullpen. After a poor start, Angels relievers have been hugely important to the team’s revived play. And it wasn’t just the addition of Ernesto Frieri in early May that turned things around for the Angels’ relief corps.

In April, Angels relievers were 0-6 with three saves, a 1.52 K/BB, and a 4.42 FIP.  Jordan Walden, then the closer, was a mess, with a 17.4 % walk rate and a 6.05 FIP. Middle relievers Jason Isringhausen and Hisanori Takahashi also lagged, with 7.43 FIP and 5.09 FIP, respectively. Scott Downs, the veteran left-hander, was the bright spot, with a 2.00 K/BB, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 100% LOB.

After Frieri arrived, things began to settle down. He shared closer duties with Downs in May. Neither allowed an earned run in the month. Walden’s move to middle relief paid off, as he raised his K/BB to 2.00 and lowered his FIP to 2.57 in 12+ innings of work. Isringhausen and Takahashi also pitched well in May, posting 2.06 FIP and 3.26 FIP, respectively. David Pauley and David Carpenter, who pitched poorly in April, continued to lag in May.

In 21 games and 55.1 innings pitched in June, the Angels’ bullpen sports the lowest team ERA in the majors at 1.95, although they are eighth in FIP at 3.20. The relievers are 4-0 with eight saves, a .226 batting average against, and a 0.49 HR/9, nearly half of home run rate as they posted in April. Frieri still hasn’t allowed an earned run since joining the Angels. Downs allowed his first of the season on June 10. As a group, the bullpen has pitched 18.1 consecutive scoreless innings over the last six games.

But there are trouble signs. (Of course there are trouble signs. Nobody’s perfect).

LaTroy Hawkins came off the disabled list in early June and added 13.2 innings to the bullpen’s efforts this month. And while his 0.66 ERA looks spiffy, it’s belied by a 3.50 FIP. His strikeout rate of 3.95 K/9 is significantly below his career average of 5.96, and his walk rate of 3.95 BB/9 is significantly above his career rate of 2.96. Not surprisingly, his first pitch strike rate (47.4%) and his swinging-strike rate  (4.0%), are at the lowest of his career.

Isringhausen, at 39, is holding batters to a .175 average with a .204 BABIP, numbers very likely to rise as the season wears on. His walk rate is in line with his career average but his strikeouts are down. Like Hawkins, his swinging-strike rate (6.6%) is the lowest of his career.

Frieri’s been untouchable but that may very well change. His 14.97 K/9 is the fifth highest among all qualified relievers since 2002 and nearly 3.00 K/9 higher than his career average. His 4.81 BB/9 is in line with his career marks and, therefore, unlikely to drop. Both his batting average against (.116) and his BABIP (.204) are well below his career norms.

Through Monday’s action, the Angels’ bullpen has pitched only 189 innings, the third least in the majors. Only the Giants and Phillies relievers have pitched fewer innings. Obviously, Angels’ starters have gone deep into games the first three months of the season, weathering the 15-day disabled list stint by Jered Weaver. But Dan Haren and Ervin Santana haven’t pitched well consistently. If that trend continues, manager Mike Scioscia is likely to rely more heavily on the ‘pen down the stretch. It remains to be seen whether the relievers will continue to pitch as well with a heavier work load.

In March, many crowned the Angels as the likely American League pennant winner. In April, many were tossing their pre-season picks out the window. Now, more than a third into the season, the Angels are playing as well as expected and are in the hunt for a postseason berth. The bullpen has been an important part of the team’s turnaround. It will need to maintain its current level of effectiveness to keep the Angels in the hunt for October.


Anthony Rizzo’s Swing.
Spoiler [+]
Few players have had the swings of fortune that Anthony Rizzo has experienced.

After being drafted in the sixth round by the Red Sox in 2007, he had an unspectacular but promising debut for an eighteen year-old in rookie ball (.286/.375/.429). Then he found out he had Hodgkin’s lymphoma and spent most of 2008 eating, sleeping, and getting chemotherapy. It took him until 2010 to really bounce back, but that year he hit .263/.334/.481 in Double-A for the Red Sox and suddenly appeared on prospect lists. Then he was traded to the Padres and hit .141 with the big league club in 153 plate appearances. Then he hit 26 home runs in Triple-A. Then he was traded to the Cubs. Then he hit 23 home runs in 284 Triple-A plate appearances.

Now the 22-year-old first baseman has been called up a second time, perhaps to stay. That’s a lot of back-and-forth swings for Rizzo. It should be no surprise, then, that his fortunes hang on his ability to sustain the changes he’s made to his swing.

If you only look at Rizzo’s best years in the minor leagues, you’d think that he didn’t need to make any changes. He had isolated slugging numbers over .200 in good parks and bad parks. When he tore up Double-A, he did it in Portland of the Eastern League — not the Pacific Coast League, where he put in a .331/.404/.652 line a year later. He struck out around 22% of the time, and had double-digit walk rates. He even stole some bags and looked good around the bag.

But there was that year he struck out 23.7% of the time in High-A for the Red Sox. And even in a short 153-PA sample, it was worrisome that he came up and whiffed on 14.3% of the pitches he saw (major league average is around 8.5% most years). A 30.1% strikeout rate, like the one he had with the Padres, takes a lot of the shine off a prospect.

And there was some reason to worry. He moved his hands a lot. He seemed to take a long path to the ball. He might have had a hole on the inside, near his hands. People began wondering if he had a slider-speed bat.

Now Rizzo has swung back to fortune. He turned 2011′s .331/.404/.652 into .342/.405/.696 this season (both PCL) and almost equaled his home run total in over 100 fewer PAs his second time in that hitter-friendly league. But more importantly, he cut his strikeout rate to 18.3% — the lowest he’s shown since he hit the high minors. Subjective reports lined up with the results. He’s cut down the wiggle. He’s moved his hands. He’s not taking as long of a path to the ball. He’s ‘fixed’ his swing. Right?

The angle isn’t great, but there isn’t a ton of publicly available Anthony Rizzo video from this year. You could try this video of his final batting practice in Des Moines, if you like. From this armchair, the reports seem warranted. He does look like he’s setting up differently. He does look like he spends less time getting into his swing. He does seem more direct to the ball.

153 plate appearances is not a huge sample, but the Padres must have seen something they were worried about. That’s a team that could use some power, and they traded away their powerful first base prospect, along with A-ball pitcher Zach Cates, for fireballer (but reliever) Andrew Cashner and A-ball outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Perhaps it was the fact that Rizzo was a pull-power lefty, and their park is not well-suited to that sort of player. Maybe it was the fact that Rizzo had some flaws in his swing.

Rizzo now has a new team and a new lease on life. His home park now augments lefty home runs by 4% compared to PetCo’s league-worst 17% suppression of the same. He’s altered facets of his swing. There isn’t much more he can learn in the minor leagues, and he seems primed for takeoff. Maybe we should have known that the pendulum would once again swing in Rizzo’s favor.


FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch – 06/26/2012.
Spoiler [+]
Delino DeShields Jr., 2B, Houston Astros
Current Level: A
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 8th
Current Value: Increasing

When it comes to prospects and stolen bases, Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton gets all the love. However, former first rounder DeShields has been quietly having a nice year in low-A ball. The 19-year-old second baseman is repeating the level (130 wRC+) after struggling there in 2011 (79 wRC+) but he’s already surpassed his steals from all of last year (30) with 51 in 58 attempts. He’s doing a better job of getting on base, both in terms of hitting for average (.274) and walking (13.4 BB%), and he’s starting to chip away at the too-high strikeout rates. DeShields’ development is going to require patience but the reward could definitely be worth the wait.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Penny Stock

The Los Angeles Angels club possessed two first round draft picks in 2009 and the organization used its 25th overall pick to select outfielder Mike Trout out of a New Jersey high school. However, the club also had the 24th overall selection and actually took Texas high school outfielder Randal Grichuk one pick ahead of the potential superstar. The Texan’s career has been derailed by injuries and inconsistencies but the good news is that he’s still just 20 years old and is looking much better in June after a dismal May in high-A ball. He has shown some power but the prospect needs a better approach at the plate, which includes more patience and better pitch recognition. Don’t give up on Grichuk just yet but it’s probably safe to say it’s going to be hard to live up to being taken one pick before Trout.

Joe Musgrove, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Current Level: R+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Undervalued

Toronto has some very impressive arms in its system, including the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Aaron Sanchez, but I’m also quite fond of 2011 supplemental first rounder Musgrove, who was taken out of a California high school with the 46th overall selection. The right-hander can fire his heater up into the 95-96 mph range and induces a plethora of ground-ball outs. In two appearances in advanced rookie ball in 2012, he’s struck out nine batters and allowed five hits, without issuing a walk, in 8.0 innings of work. At 6’5â€
 
dude was just relieved ......the unwritten baseball rules is what makes it annoying at times
CHAPMAN-SOMERSAULT.gif
 
^Brewers are stupid tho...this is the same team that had the falling-down routine after Prince Fielder's walk-off HRs. %#++ outta here w/ the complaints.
 
Originally Posted by DoubleJs07

^Brewers are stupid tho...this is the same team that had the falling-down routine after Prince Fielder's walk-off HRs. %#++ outta here w/ the complaints.
Agreed. Baseball's unwritten rules are unwritten for a reason.
 
Worked late, but I just had to make it out to Camden today to see Trout (and my dude Hammel).

Despite the battering, I'm really glad I did.

Wow.
 
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although I think that catch is overrated simply because it was him that made it but the defense/hitting/base-running is a pleasure to watch every day.
 
Profile: Trevor Bauer, D-Backs.
Spoiler [+]
The situation: With http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6383/joe-saunders">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6383/joe-saunders')" cache="true" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6383" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Joe Saunders heading to the disabled list with a shoulder injury, the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ari/arizona-diamondbacks')">Arizona Diamondbacks made the highly anticipated move of calling up Trevor Bauer, the No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft, who will make his major league debut by starting on Thursday. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, Bauer ranked second in the minor leagues with 116 strikeouts in 93 innings, to go with a 2.23 ERA.

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Darron CummingsTrevor Bauer has the tools to make the quick transition from the draft to the majors.

Background: While he was part of a UCLA rotation that included eventual No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole (Pirates) last spring, Bauer was statistically the best pitcher in college baseball last year, finishing his junior year with a 1.25 ERA and a Pac-10 record 203 strikeouts in just 136&frac23; innings. Beyond his numbers, his rituals in between starts have garnered just as much attention. He is a proponent of long tossing, throwing from outfield pole to outfield pole before games, and he also works out with giant rubber bands as part of resistance training.

What he can do: Bauer can miss bats at any level with a wide assortment of offerings. Using a delivery that features an exaggerated stride and lightning-quick arm action, Bauer has a 93-95 mph fastball that can bump a bit higher at times, and he backs up the pitch with an outstanding curveball, as well as a plus slider and deceptive changeup. He also can vary the grip on his fastball to add cutting or sinking action to the pitch, and hitters never know what's coming. Because of the speed in his delivery, he can get out of sync at times, leading to problems with control and efficiency. He's walked 4.6 batters per nine innings this year, and in his eight starts for Triple-A Reno, he's averaged 101 pitches for every six innings he's thrown.

Immediate big league future: There is no debate that Bauer has star-level stuff, and he should rack up plenty of strikeouts immediately. The question is how many innings he will throw. He still has a tendency to get too cute with the depth of his arsenal at times when he should simply be attacking hitters, and with his pitch count being monitored, he'll need bullpen support to get wins. With Arizona's injury woes, Bauer looks like he's up to stay, and even with his issues he's among the best fantasy rookie pickups going forward.

Long-term: Bauer will be good now and is likely five years away from peaking. He has the talent to turn into a consistent All-Star and possibly even a future Cy Young candidate. No matter which ceiling he reaches, 200-plus strikeouts will be a constant.

Midseason prospect promotions.

Spoiler [+]
We still don't know when Player X is going to get called up, as injuries and ineffectiveness at the big league levels -- and the constant service-time calculations -- can play a far larger role in these decisions than simply a prospect's performance.

One thing we can get some clues from, however, is the flurry of promotions that come at midseason. Here are 10 players who recently were promoted, and a breakdown of how that affects their path to the majors.

bos.gif


Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox
Nobody should have been surprised to see the Red Sox select shortstop Deven Marrero in the first round this year, as they've made a habit of selecting players who entered the spring as a potential top-10 pick but then slipped. Anthony Ranaudo hasn't exactly worked out, but Bradley sure has so far. After showing a line drive bat, outstanding approach and hitting .359/.480/.526 in 67 games at high-Class A Salem, he was moved up to Double-A Portland. A plus defender in center, Bradley is suddenly on pace to reach Boston by next September, if not earlier.

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Cody Buckel, RHP, Texas Rangers
A second-round pick in 2010, Buckel had a 2.61 ERA in his full-season debut last year. He exploded in the first half of 2012 with a 1.47 ERA at high-A Myrtle Beach and 94 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings, while limiting Carolina League hitters to a .186 average. Buckel doesn't have monster stuff, but his fastball and changeup both grade out as above-average, and all of his pitches play up due to outstanding command. He doesn't have star-level upside, but he's on the fast track as a potential No. 3 starter after beginning the second half at Double-A Frisco.

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Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Only hitters are supposed to dominate in the California League, but Cingrani went against the grain by putting up a 1.11 ERA in 10 starts for high-A Bakersfield, with 71 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings. A third-round pick last June as a senior out of Rice, scouts wondered how well Cingrani's arsenal would work at the upper levels. His fastball and changeup are both plus pitches, but his slider is well below average. He's been good, but not nearly as dominant in four starts at Double-A Pensacola; a majority of talent evaluators believe he could be in the big leagues next year with a move to the bullpen.

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Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The top overall pick in last year's draft, Cole was consistently good at high-A Bradenton, which, given the inconsistency of his UCLA career, was quite a surprise. Most expected dominant starts mixed with duds, and he had few of each. Now at Double-A, Cole has the potential to make some noise with the Pirates next spring and should make his debut at some point in the 2013 season.

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Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
A first-round pick in 2010, the Angels had been taking it slow with Cowart, who signed for $2.3 million as a third baseman when most teams preferred him as a pitcher. He didn't make his full-season debut until this spring, but then he lasted just 66 games at low-A Cedar Rapids while hitting .293/.348/.479. Now playing for high-A Inland Empire in the much more hitter-friendly California League, Cowart could go from a slow mover to a position prospect who reaches Double-A before his 21st birthday.

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Corey Dickerson, OF, Colorado Rockies
Dickerson hit 32 home runs last year for low-A Asheville, but that looked to be the product of a park that adores left-handed power, as 26 of those homers came at home; he slugged just .363 on the road. While Dickerson had problems showing the same power at high-A Modesto to start the year, he still hit .338/.396/.583 in 60 games, but he's off to a slow start at Double-A Tulsa. As a bat-only prospect limited to left field, Dickerson has to hit to maintain his prospect status.

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Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle Mariners
Franklin's stock took a dip in 2011. After a breakout year in 2010, big things were expected with Franklin heading to High Desert, but mononucleosis sapped his strength, and he struggled at the plate. He got all of his stock back and then some with a .322/.394/.502 first-half at Double-A Jackson. More offensive fireworks at Triple-A Tacoma this summer suddenly could make him the favorite to be the 2013 Opening Day shortstop in Seattle.

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Miles Head, 3B, Oakland Athletics
Part of the return from Boston for Andrew Bailey, Head had some of the loudest numbers in the minor leagues during the first half of the season, hitting .382/.433/.715 in 67 games. That earned him a more-than-logical promotion to Double-A Midland, but scouts still aren't quite sure what to do with him because of his weird profile. He's short, stocky, unathletic and right-handed, a combination rarely seen in major league impact players. All he can do is keep hitting, but the A's have no obvious solution at the infield corners, so Head could be closer than expected to getting an opportunity to be part of the solution.

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Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners
The only thing surprising about Hultzen's promotion to Triple-A Tacoma was the fact that it took so long. After allowing five earned runs in his pro debut, the second overall pick in last year's draft allowed just five more in his next 12 starts, finishing his Double-A Jackson run with a 1.19 ERA. Some would argue that the most big league-ready player in the 2011 draft was ready for Triple-A to begin the season, and he won't need 13 more starts to reach the big leagues.

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Dan Straily, RHP, Athletics
One of this year's biggest breakouts among pitchers, Straily had 108 strikeouts in just 85 1/3 innings at Double-A Midland, and his scouting reports are nearly as impressive. His 91-94 mph fastball, slider and changeup all are projected as possible plus pitches, and his command and control are also above-average. Not bad for a 24th-round pick in 2009. After firing seven shutout innings with eight more strikeouts in his Triple-A debut, Straily has gone from nice organizational arm to potential September call-up.

Trade targets for the Dodgers.

Spoiler [+]
The ambulance chasers will be on the phone, one evaluator noted after the New York Yankees lost CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte in the span of about four hours Wednesday. What the evaluator meant is that any team looking to dump a veteran player with a bad contract will be calling the Yankees, just in case they're ready to jump.

Ned Colletti, the general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, would probably love to get more of those calls today. He would probably appreciate having more options than he does right now, as he looks to apply a little defibrillation to his team's fading offense. Andre Ethier is now out, and Matt Kemp isn't going to be back for a few more weeks. The Dodgers have been shut out in their last three games, and in the month of June, only the Miami Marlins have scored fewer runs.

Colletti has been calling around asking for help, and the team's new ownership is ready to make suitable deals when they become available.

Here's the problem: There are staggeringly few options in the market right now, and even fewer attractive possibilities, with so few teams having declared themselves as sellers. But there are still some players the Dodgers could be interested in:

Jeff Francoeur, Kansas City Royals: Kansas City prospect Wil Myers appears ready and thinks about a promotion every day, and if he's called up, Francoeur would theoretically become expendable. But as of Wednesday afternoon, Francoeur had a .702 OPS, which ranked 51st among 60 outfielders, and given the nature of his contract and the type of player that he is, making a trade would be tough. He's owed about $9 million for the rest of his deal, which runs through next year, and given his lack of production this year, the Dodgers will probably want the Royals to absorb at least some of the money -- and the Dodgers likely wouldn't give up anything decent for him.

Is this Kevin Youkilis II? Not at all. Because while Youkilis was generally unhappy, Francoeur has an important presence in the KC clubhouse. Why would the Royals simply give away a healthy player whom they're already going to have to pay, anyway?

And while some Royals fans are clamoring for Myers with the presumption he'll be an upgrade, consider what's happened this year with Eric Hosmer, who has had a tough season despite the fact that he continues to be regarded as one of the top young players in the majors. There's no guarantee that Myers will hit right away, which means that KC won't be in the giveaway business with Francoeur.

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: He's owed about $46 million, and Chicago is certainly prepared to eat a whole lot of it. But Soriano is an incredibly streaky player, he is limited to left field, and if the Dodgers traded for him, there's probably as good of a chance that he would be part of the problem as there is that he would be part of the solution. Imagine the Dodgers playing the next month with Soriano and Bobby Abreu on the corners?

Chase Headley, San Diego Padres: He'd be a great fit for the Dodgers in every way, giving them some positional flexibility. But the Padres might not be wild about trading within their own division -- the history of trades between these two teams is a lot like Yankees-Mets -- and San Diego's franchise is currently in the final stages of being sold. The process for any significant deal might slow down, unless the Dodgers were willing to overpay.

Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: Yes, he's eligible for free agency after this season, and he's having a strong year, and he'd be a nice fit. But it's probably far too early for Toronto to start dumping players, and prying Encarnacion away from the Jays right now would cost the Dodgers' sticker price, plus 25 percent. And L.A. really doesn't have a very good farm system.

Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: Oh, sure, the Angels would probably be open to a conversation about Wells, who is owed about $50 million for the next 2 1/2 seasons, and the Dodgers wouldn't have to give up any prospects for him. But there is an open question about whether Wells can still play right now.

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: He's owed about $22 million for the rest of this year and next year, and there is such significant injury risk because of his concussion history that some executives simply don't believe any team would make a move for him.

Carlos Lee, Houston Astros: He could play first base and be an RBI guy for the Dodgers, but in the past, he's told the Astros he would not approve a trade; he's happy being close to his ranch.

Bryan LaHair, Cubs: Month to month, his OPS has gone from 1.251 to .792 to .666. He is 3-for-35 against left-handers, and there are concerns about his defense.

Boston Red Sox leftovers: In the next couple of weeks, Boston will get back Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury, and so the Red Sox could have a surplus of outfielders with Daniel Nava and Ryan Sweeney. But there is no guarantee that Crawford's elbow will hold up under the stress of playing every day, and the Red Sox would want something decent in return -- maybe more than the Dodgers would want to give up.

Hanley Ramirez, Miami Marlins: Miami owner Jeffrey Loria spoke to his players last week, so it's probably far too early for him to think about dumping players. Ramirez is owed $40 million and is hitting .260, and they'd want significant return for one of Loria's favorite players.

Daniel Murphy, New York Mets: Here's someone who could be a nice fit. The Dodgers have bullpen help, which the Mets need, and the price for Murphy wouldn't be prohibitive now, because he's had an off year. But Murphy had always hit before this year, and the Mets have long thought his best position is actually third base, where L.A. has a need.

The bottom line: Colletti is going to have to work through some less-than-perfect options.

From ESPN Stats and Info, more on the Dodgers' slide:

The Dodgers went 1-8 during their nine-game road trip and are now tied with the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West.

Dodgers/Giants win percentage by month this season
June: .440/.640
May: .571/.517
April: .696/.545

From Elias Sports Bureau: It's the first time the Dodgers have ever been shut out in a series sweep of three or more games. The last time the Dodgers were shut out three straight times came back in August 2007 against the Diamondbacks and Reds. The Giants' sweep of the Dodgers in San Francisco comes just a week after the Dodgers were swept by the Athletics across the bay in Oakland. In the two series combined, the Dodgers were outscored 24-2.
[h3]Elsewhere[/h3]
• This is great: Giancarlo Stanton is going to be in the Home Run Derby. His third-base coach hopes to pitch to him, writes Joe Capozzi.

• On the morning that the Angels summoned Mike Trout to the big leagues, they were 6-14. Since then, these are the pertinent numbers:

[h4]Using the whole field[/h4]
The percentage of Mike Trout's hits by location in 2011 and 2012 (Source: ESPN Stats and Info).
[table][tr][th=""]
Location
[/th][th=""]
2011
[/th][th=""]
2012
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Left field
[/td][td]
70%
[/td][td]
47%
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Center field
[/td][td]
19%
[/td][td]
25%
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Right field
[/td][td]
11%
[/td][td]
28%
[/td][/tr][/table]

Angels' W-L: 36-19
Trout's batting average: .344, best in the AL
Trout's hits: 75
Trout's walks: 21
Trout's runs: 47
Trout's extra-base hits: 24
Trout's stolen bases: 21

In addition, Trout has been a dominant defensive player, as exhibited by the incredible catch he made Wednesday.

Josh Hamilton was the prohibitive favorite at the end of May to win the AL MVP Award, but as of today, Trout might be running neck and neck.

Torii Hunter had a big day.

• With Daniel Hudson out for the year, Arizona's pitching depth is going to be challenged, writes Nick Piecoro.

Aroldis Chapman was read the riot act, writes Paul Daugherty. Dusty Baker wasn't in the mood to joke about the somersaults.

• Brian Cashman, general manager of the Yankees, said over the phone on Wednesday, "I believe in Freddy Garcia." He went on to explain why he isn't going to rush out and make a deal in the aftermath of injuries to Sabathia and Pettitte, and he acknowledged that during his 15 seasons as GM of the Yankees, he's become more and more conservative about midseason deals. Adam Warren is getting the ball later this week.

All of that does not preclude the possibility that the Yankees could look to add pitching in a trade in the next 33 days, before the July 31 deadline. One pitcher who might make some sense is Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins, who has thrown well of late. If his next team doesn't like his work as a starter, he could always be moved into a reliever role.

The Twins were beaten again, and the team's struggles might nudge it closer to making moves.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Andrew Cashner will return to start today.

2. The Detroit Tigers are carrying a second hitting coach for the rest of the year.

3. The Cleveland Indians picked up a player on waivers, writes Paul Hoynes.

4. Hideki Matsui could've been used in a key situation and wasn't, as Marc Topkin writes.

5. The Philadelphia Phillies are calling up a veteran reliever.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The progress of Sergio Santos is very slow.

2. Brett Anderson, on the other hand, is making steady strides toward a return to the big leagues.

3. The Seattle Mariners hope that Kevin Millwood will be able to make his next start, writes Geoff Baker.

4. Chris Carpenter is looking for answers, writes Derrick Goold.

5. Luke Scott is coming back, and he is badly needed.

6. Jose Altuve could be back this weekend.

7. Gerrit Cole got smoked.

8. Nick Johnson got hurt.
[h3]NL West notes[/h3]
Tim Lincecum looked like himself in finishing off a sweep filled with shutouts, as Henry Schulman writes. He talked his way into staying in the game, as Scott Ostler writes.

From ESPN Stats and Info, how Lincecum won:

A) Lincecum threw off-speed pitches 59 percent of the time, his second-highest percentage this season. Dodgers hitters were 2-for-14 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a Lincecum offspeed pitch.
B) The Dodgers missed on 17-of-33 swings against Lincecum's off-speed pitches, the first time this season an opponent has missed on more than half its swings against Lincecum's off-speed offerings.
C) The Dodgers put nine of Lincecum's off-speed pitches in play, six of which were hit on the ground.

• The Padres' hitters came up empty.

• The Colorado Rockies were lit up again.
[h3]AL West notes[/h3]
Jarrod Parker was The Man for Oakland.

• The Mariners had a frustrating day.

Roy Oswalt is still undefeated, because the Texas Rangers crushed it.
[h3]AL Central notes[/h3]
Doug Fister had a bad day.

Billy Butler and the Royals just keep hanging around: He hit a big home run against the Tampa Bay Rays.

• The Indians were swept.

Adam Dunn and the Chicago White Sox erupted.
[h3]NL Central notes[/h3]
• The St. Louis Cardinals stumbled in the final game of their road trip.

• The Milwaukee Brewers won and steered around a sweep.

• Day 2 of the Anthony Rizzo Era didn't go as well.

• Mike McKenry and the Pittsburgh Pirates managed to hold off a late surge.
[h3]NL East notes[/h3]
• The Marlins stopped the bleeding.

• The Atlanta Braves used the long ball.

• The Washington Nationals did something they hadn't done in seven years. Michael Morse is starting to relax.

Ryan Zimmerman seems to have been greatly aided by an injection.

Chase Utley hit a homer, and it went downhill from there.

• The New York Mets broke out in a big way.
[h3]AL East notes[/h3]
Ricky Romero got roughed up, as Ken Fidlin writes.

Jason Hammel hurt his All-Star chances, writes Dan Connolly.

• The Red Sox closed out a strong homestand with a victory, writes Brian MacPherson. David Ortiz continues to kill the ball.
[h3]By The Numbers[/h3]
From ESPN Stats and Info

3: Opposite-field hits for Mike Trout Wednesday; he had three all of last season.
4: Mets with at least four RBIs Wednesday, the fourth team since RBIs became official in 1920 to have four players drive in at least four.
6: Home runs this June for the Dodgers; 11 players across the league have more in the month.
13: Home runs this June for Jose Bautista, most ever by a Blue Jays player in one month.
21: Hits for the White Sox, tied for second-most in a game by any team this season.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Will Francoeur be dealt?[/h3]
10:27AM ET

[h5]Jeff Francoeur | Royals [/h5]


The minor league apprenticeship of Wil Myers is nearing a conclusion and the Kansas City Royals could call up the top outfield prospect at any time.

Myers, a third-round pick in 2009, entered Wednesday leading the minor leagues with 24 home runs along with a .327 average and 63 RBI. But Kent Babb of the Kansas City Star cautions that a promotion is unlikely to happen before the All-Star break.

The promotion of Myers will only add to the speculation that Jeff Francoeur will be expendable, especially since the Dodgers will be looking for an offensive boost following three straight shutout defeats in San Francisco. Francoeur, however, is hitting just .263 and is owed around $9 million for the rest of his deal, so the Royals may get far from a king's ransom in return.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says there is no guarantee Francoeur will be a summer rental:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]Francoeur staying in KC?
"Is this Kevin Youkilis II? Not at all. Because while Youkilis was generally unhappy, Francoeur has an important presence in the KC clubhouse. Why would the Royals simply give away a healthy player who they're already going to have to pay, anyway? And while some Royals fans are clamoring for Myers with the presumption he'll be an upgrade, consider what's happened this year with Eric Hosmer, who has had a tough season despite the fact that he continues to be regarded as one of the top young players in the majors. There's no guarantee that Myers will hit right away, which means that KC won't be in the giveaway business with Francoeur."
Tags:
Jeff Francoeur, Kansas City Royals

http://[h3]Scoring drought in LA[/h3]
9:58AM ET

[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]


The Los Angeles Dodgers limped home from San Francisco Wednesday after failing to score a run in a three-game series against the Giants, the first time that has happened in the history of the storied rivalry.

Already missing All-Star Matt Kemp, the Dodgers lost Andre Ethier after one at-bat to a left oblique injury that could land him on the disabled list. Ethier, injured on a check swing, will undergo an MRI on Thursday.

While the Dodgers would love to add a bat, there are "incredibly few" middle-of-the-order options available on the trade market, Buster Olney tweeted Wednesday. The likes of Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano are available, but they no longer are difference makers.

The Dodgers have been linked in the past to Houston's Carlos Lee, so maybe those talks could pick up steam. Lee has a limited no-trade clause and the Astros would be looking for the Dodgers to absorb plenty of what is left on his $18.5 million salary for 2012.

Oln ey has more on the Dodgers in Thursday's blog:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]Slim pickings in LA?
"Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has been calling around asking for help, and the team's new ownership is ready to make suitable deals when they become available. Here's the problem: There are staggeringly few options in the market right now, and even fewer attractive possibilities, with so few teams having declared themselves as sellers."

Tags:
Los Angeles Dodgers, Carlos Lee, Andre Ethier

http://[h3]Progress for Anderson[/h3]
9:34AM ET

[h5]Brett Anderson | Athletics [/h5]


There is more encouraging news on Oakland lefthander Brett Anderson, who threw off a bullpen mound Wednesday for the second time since experiencing a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Anderson will throw again Sunday in Texas.

Manager Bob Melvin did not offer a timetable for Anderson rejoining the rotation, but it will certainly be after July 14, the one-year anniversary of his surgery, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Anderson's return will only increase the healthy competition on a young staff that currently includes Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and Travis Blackley.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Brett Anderson, Robert Andino, Oakland Athletics

http://[h3]If Millwood misses time[/h3]
9:13AM ET

[h5]Seattle Mariners [/h5]


Right-hander Kevin Millwood left his start Wednesday after aggravating a groin injury, the second time he's done so in the past month or so. He was replaced in the game by Hisashi Iwakuma, who could potentially get a start next time around if Millwood can't answer the bell.

The Mariners are still hoping Millwood can make his next start Monday, reports Geoff Baker.

Other options include Blake Beavan, who started the season in the rotation but was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month. Prospect Danny Hultzen was just promoted to Triple-A and is slated to make his second start there this Thursday, but the Mariners may prefer to hold off on calling up the left-hander for another few weeks or more, both for development purposes and to stave off service time concerns.

If Millwood hits the disabled list and Iwakuma gets the nod, the Mariners are likely to call up reliever Steve Delabar, who has spent most of the season in the big leagues, but could also summon prospect Carter Capps, who is now in Double-A Jackson.

- Jason A. Churchill

Tags:
Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma, Blake Beavan, Steve Delabar, Seattle Mariners

http://[h3]Olney: Murphy a fit in LA[/h3]
9:01AM ET

[h5]Daniel Murphy | Mets [/h5]


We mentioned Wednesday that second baseman Daniel Murphy has been out of the starting lineup all four times the Mets have faced a left-handed starter in the past week, leading to speculation that he may be on his way to being part of a lefty-righty platoon.

Manager Terry Collins told Adam Rubin that is not necessarily the case, adding Murphy may start Thursday against Dodgers southpaw Chris Capuano.

Murphy did make a case to stay in the lineup, at least against righthanders, by belting a pair of homers in a 17-1 rout of the Cubs.

Murphy has seen his playing time reduced since Ronny Cedeno came off the disabled list. ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney says Murphy might be a fit for a team out west:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Could Murphy land in Hollywood?
"Murphy is someone who could be a nice fit in LA. The Dodgers have bullpen help, which the Mets need, and the price for Murphy wouldn't be prohibitive now, because he's had an off-year. But Murphy had always hit, before this year, and the Mets have long thought his best position is actually third base, where L.A. has a need."

Tags:
Ronny Cedeno, Daniel Murphy, New York Mets

http://[h3]Carpenter to see a specialist[/h3]
8:46AM ET

[h5]Chris Carpenter | Cardinals [/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals were cautiously optimistic that Chris Carpenter's ailing shoulder was healing to the point where the ace righthander would be making a minor league start within a week.

That timetable has been scrapped after Carpenter still experienced weakness following a 34-pitch throwing session Friday in Kansas City. Carpenter, still searching for answers, will see a nerve specialist Thursday in Dallas, reports Derrick Goold.

GM John Mozeliak has recently said that knowing Carpenter's availability by July 1 would influence the players he pursues at the trade deadline. Carpenter's shaky status should only intensify the Cardinals' quest to land another starting pitcher.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the Cardinals are interested in Cubs starter Matt Garza, who is under club control through 2013. If the Cardinals are thinking bigger, the Brewers' Zack Greinke and the Phils' Cole Hamels could be pursued as expensive short-term rentals.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Matt Garza, Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

http://[h3]End of the line for Houston train?[/h3]
8:02AM ET

[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]


Big changes are coming to Houston, where the Astros are under new ownership and preparing for a move to the American League in 2013. When all is said and done, the train above left field at Minute Maid Park might not be going along for the ride.

Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle reports new owner Jim Crane, who already plans to remove Tal's Hill (the sloped wall in center field) from the Astros' home park, may scrap the signature train as well as part of an overhaul franchise overhaul. The train could be a casualty of a new set of signs above the Crawford Boxes and Home Run Alley.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Houston Astros

http://[h3]Scott expected back Thursday[/h3]
7:42AM ET

[h5]Luke Scott | Rays [/h5]


The Tampa Bay Rays are expected to welcome designated hitter Luke Scott back to the lineup as soon as Thursday's opener of a weekend series against Detroit, says Vinnie Duber of MLB.com.

The 34-year-old Scott, who hasn't played since June 8 because of back stiffness, finished his rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham earlier this week. Scott's return will likely reduce of the role of Hideki Matsui, who will become more of a pinch-hitter and back-up outfielder.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
Hideki Matsui, Luke Scott, Tampa Bay Rays

http://[h3]Cubs and White Sox pursue Puig[/h3]
7:30AM ET

[h5]Yasel Puig [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Cuban defector Yasiel Puig, a 21-year-old outfielder, has been declared a free agent and could finalize a deal with a major league club by Friday, reports MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez.

Puig could get a contract similar to that of Jorge Soler, who received a nine-year, $30 million deal from the Chicago Cubs earlier in June.

The Cubs and White Sox are believed to be among the teams seriously interested in Puig, says Phil Rogers in Thursday's Chicago Tribune.The reason for such a high price? Well, aside from his age and talent, there's a key timing factor that could give Puig a lot of leverage. The new regulations set forth by the CBA allow clubs all of $2.9 million to spend on international free agents (including Cuban defectors), but that doesn't kick in until Monday. So if Puig is declared a free agent before then, teams will be fighting over his rights -- and have more money to spend.

As for other teams expected to be after Puig, ESPNDeportesLosAngeles.com's Enrique Rojas mentions - among others - the Dodgers, Yankees,Giants and Phillies.

- Doug Mittler

Tags:
San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks

http://[h3]Bronx rotation problems[/h3]
7:18AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees absorbed a painful 1-2 punch Wednesday, first placing CC Sabathia on the disabled list with a left groin injury and then losing Andy Pettitte to a fractured left fibula that will sideline him for six weeks.

Sabathia is only expected to miss a few starts, but the injury to Pettitte requires some shuffling. The Yankees plan to first look from within while general manager Brian Cashman will stay in touch with other GMs, writes Andrew Marchand.

As our Buster Olney noted Wednesday, the Yankees will give Freddy Garcia, David Phelps and Adam Warren a shot to show they are starters. On Monday, Garcia will pitch in Pettitte's place in Tampa Bay. The Yankees specifically sent Phelps, despite a 2.94 ERA as a major-league long man, down to the minors earlier this season to fill such a position.

Francisco Liriano could be someone the Yankees could have interest in as a starter or reliever, but Olney said on ESPN Radio's "Mike & Mike" that Cashman is not involved with any talks as of now.

Two guys who surprisingly aren't in the picture are highly-rated prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos. Betances is 3-5 with a 6.39 ERA at Triple-A, while Banuelos is on the DL with a sore elbow. On the year, Banuelos is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA, also at Triple-A.

As for a historical comparison, Cashman brought up 2005, when he needed three starters at the All-Star break to replace Chien-Ming Wang, Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano.

As for other trade options, the Yanks could inquire about Cubs righties Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster, who are rumored to be available. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros could also be trade bait.

ESPN's Stephania Bell has more on Sabathia's injury:

- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill

bell_stephania_30.jpg
[h5]Stephania Bell[/h5]
Yankees taking precaution
"As a southpaw, Sabathia's injury is on his stance leg, which demands power and control while balancing on a single limb. The adductor and hip flexor muscles must then be able to properly stretch or lengthen as he transfers weight toward the right leg when releasing the ball. At 6-foot-7 and 290 pounds, the demands on the stabilizing muscles are not insignificant. Given those demands, it is imperative that Sabathia's injury heal properly so this does not turn into a chronic issue. As the evolution of understanding these injuries comes about, it is becoming more apparent that chronic tears or defects in the core musculature, particularly groin or abdominal injuries located near their attachment on the pelvis, may ultimately require surgical intervention. The good news is that this is reported to be the mildest variant of a muscle strain. Rest and proper rehabilitation can help prevent this from becoming something more severe. A look around the league reminds us that a number of stars have been lost for significant portions or even all of the season. The team that emerges victorious in the postseason may well be the team with the most players left standing. So the Yankees will sit Sabathia now in the hope that he will be standing on the mound for them this fall."

Tags:
Chicago Cubs, Wandy Rodriguez, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte

http://[h3]Replacing Hudson in Phoenix[/h3]
6:37AM ET

[h5]Daniel Hudson | Diamondbacks [/h5]


Daniel Hudson has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, writes Steve Gilbert, an injury that generally results in Tommy John surgery and at least nine months out of the game.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have called up left-hander Patrick Corbin to take Hudson's place on the roster and it seems likely he'll also take Hudson's starts, at least in the short term.

Once Joe Saunders is ready to return from the disabled list, the club could choose the veteran over the rookie, but even after calling up Trevor Bauer to make his big-league debut this week, the D-backs still have a front line prospect they could summon in southpaw Tyler Skaggs.

Skaggs started the Southern League All-Star Game against Seattle's Danny Hultzen and has been solid all season. Barring a trade that adds starting pitching, Skaggs appears to have a good chance to see the majors sometime in July or August.

The Hudson injury is likely to linger well in 2013, too, so any moves made for pitching this summer should reflect such a need.

- Jason A. Churchill
 
^^

Do not want any of those guys
laugh.gif


These guys were not meant to compete. I've done a good job remembering that even when they were at the top of the standings. They're simply not a good club. They suck, and while it's taken some time, it's finally showing.


Puig signs with LA
 
Minor League Standouts and Players of Note.
Spoiler [+]
The minor leagues are a vast landscape of prospects, fillers and veterans. Each year, players from all three of those category impact the major leagues — sometimes for the better, sometimes not. But before they make their September callups or injury replacements, let us familiarize ourselves with some of the standouts.

International League (AAA)
IL Leaderboards

Brad Eldred (.374 OBP, .695 SLG, .465 wOBA, 197 wRC+)
  • The 31-year-old Eldred is currently slugging away in the Tigers minor league system. Like Dan Johnson (173 wRC+) with the White Sox, Eldred would probably require multiple injuries before getting consideration at first base. The Tigers have both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, while the Sox have a trio in Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and now Kevin Youkilis. So barring a cavalcade of injuries — or an age of enlightenment in which Delmon Young is no longer a DH in Detroit — Eldred will probably not get a steady shot with the Tigers. A September callup should be a no-doubt move, though.
* * *​
Jack Cust (.405 OBP, .502 SLG, .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+)
  • Cust had an underwhelming 64 games with the Seattle Mariners in 2011, the net result of which was a return to the minor leagues, this time with the Yankees. Cust is now putting up his best numbers since 2007, when he was a Padres minor leauger, about to get traded to Oakland for a massive career resurgence. He was 28 then, and now that he’s 32, the retirement clock is ticking. The Yankees might like him off the bench in September, but if a fringe team finds themselves desiring a relatively low-risk gamble, Cust could probably be had on the cheap.
Chris Tillman (3.63 ERA, 2.98 FIP)
  • The 24-year-old Tillman got fairly blown up in his first three seasons in the majors, but now, after starting the year in Triple-A, Tillman leads the IL in FIP. He’s got his best numbers since 2007, when he was in High-A, and he’s looking like the player the Orioles had hoped he was. If the Orioles’ team ERA (3.81) matched their team FIP (4.06), then Tillman might have already made a showing this season.
Pacific Coast League (AAA)
PCL Leaderboards

Yusmeiro Petit (3.25 ERA, 2.69 FIP)
  • He has not been in the majors since 2009, but Yusmeiro Petit has seemingly changed his game way for the better. He dominated the Venezuelan League this winter, and now he is leading the PCL in FIP — the PCL, my friends! One has to think Petit is on the shortlist for an injury callup if and when the Giants need some starting pitching or swing man relief. If not, I feel Petit might reach the majors with another team. At age 27 — and in a hitter’s league — he has to be raising some brows.
Adam Eaton (.455 OBP, .520 SLG, .442 wOBA, 164 wRC+)
Jacob Elmore (.463 OBP, .528 SLG, .444 wOBA, 166 wRC+)
  • Eaton (23) and Elmore (25) are basically the same person offensively. They live on contact hitting; they are young speedsters; and they are both playing for the Indians Triple-A affiliate for the first times in their careers. Eaton, an outfielder, and Elmore, an infielder, both have the kinds of skills that make them safer bets in the PCL. Remember, the PCL made Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez and countless others look like home run champs in the making. Eaton and Elmore don’t hit for power, but earn their bacon on the base paths — and with great efficiency. Eaton is the prospect between the two of them, but Elmore’s strong performance could very likely net him a September callup.
Justin Christian (.432 OBP, .540 SLG, .427 wOBA, 155 wRC+)
  • He’s already in the majors, but we’ll talk about him anyway. The 32-year-old Christian, like the Eaton/Elmore duo, is a speed demon. Even at the age of 32, Christian still has wheels. He put up 36 steals in 2011, despite getting only 281 PA. The last time he got 500+ PA (2006 with the Yankees Double-A affiliate), he stole 68 bases while getting caught only 13 times. He’s likely slowed down since then, but nonetheless can add a special dimension to the Giants lineup and bench.
Mexican League (AAA)
ML Leaderboards

The Mexican League is quite a different animal. I personally cannot recall the last time a player of great renown came from the Mexican League — it seems to function as a resting place for many Latin American stars on the decline, rather than a farm ready for harvest. It also is a league that skews towards offense, with smaller and funny-shaped parks, I’m told.

That being said, there are few players too intriguing to resist. These guys may not make it to the MLB, but they at least deserve a shot in the IL or PCL next season:

Leonardo Heras (.398 OBP, .557 SLG, .413 wOBA, 140 wRC+)
  • He has speed, power, and age on his side. Only 22 and ranking among the best hitters in the league, Heras is looking elite in a league that is 6 years older than him on average. If this is not the kind of player the ML exists to find, then who is?
Hector Rodriguez (2.59 ERA, 2.90 FIP)
  • At age 27, this lefty leads the (qualified) league with a 26.2% K-rate (over 2 points higher than the next closest pitcher) and ranks second with a 2.90 FIP (65 FIP-minus). His walk rate (9.3% BB-rate) is 11th-worst in the league, but his age, handedness, and overall degree of success as a starter means he could very possibly be an MLB swing man or LOOGY — at least — in the near future.
Andres Meza (4.07 ERA, 3.64 FIP)
  • He is 9th in the league with a 3.64 FIP, but what sets Meza apart is that he’s 2.6 years younger than the league at age 25. He has improved his K-rate in each of his three seasons in the league, and could potentially make for some excellent starting pitching depth or a bullpen swing man. And if the 3.64 FIP does not sound impressive, remember that this is a league with an average of 4.45 FIP — so he’s sporting an 82 FIP-minus (not adjusted to park).
Pablo Menchaca (4.50 ERA, 2.68 FIP)
  • Menchace (24 years old) spent his first few years in the Padres minor league system as a starter. Despite a 4-start-stint in the rotation this season, he has pitched primarily in relief — and looked sharp doing so. He has a 60 FIP-minus despite posting forgettable numbers the previous season. His 24.0% K-rate should draw a few eyes when Spring Training rolls around again next season.
And for giggles:

Jose Cabrera (1.14 ERA, 1.31 FIP)
  • The 40-year-old Jose Cabrera is in fact the Jose Cabrera who played briefly for the Astros and Brewers. He has a 29 FIP-minus, a 36.0% K-rate, and 2.6% BB-rate through 31.2 IP. No one can hold a candle to him in Mexico right now.


Pounding the Zone: Walk Rate Peripherals.
Spoiler [+]
When we look at a hitter that’s struggling to produce, we have plenty of peripherals at our disposal. When we look at a pitcher that’s struggling with his control, we have… two? We have his zone percentage, and we have his first-strike percentage. We can compare those to the league average and hope we have a sense of how important either is to his walk rate going forward.

Well, let’s see how well these things correlate to walk rate. Why not.

Seemingly, zone percentage is the most important number. You want to have a better walk rate? Throw the ball in the strike zone. Of course the two are related, but you might be surprised about the slope of the line describing their relationship:

zonebb.png


Yeah that’s not a heck of a slope. The r-squared value for this relationship is .0875, meaning that zone percentage describes just short of 9% of the variance in walk rate. There’s a general relationship between the two, but this means that there are plenty of wild guys like Danys Baez in 2002, who hit the zone 56% of the time while walking 11.3%, and plenty of good control guys like Mark Buehrle last season, who hit the zone 43.1% of the time while walking 5.2% of the batters he faced. Zone percentage is just a general guide.

Why is this? It might be because pitchers with exceptional stuff can get batters to chase on pitches — that’s not a pitch in the strike zone, but it’s a strike, not a ball. Maybe we can find our low-zone-percentage, low-walk-rate hurlers and look at their o-swing percentage? Taking pitchers with a below-average zone percentage (we’ll use 49%) and an above-average walk percentage (we’ll use 8.5%), we get a group of 91 pitchers that averaged swings on 29.57% of their pitches outside the zone compared to the league average o-swing of 28.06%. But if you limit the list to only those with a better-than-average contact percentage, the list gets (smaller and) more interesting:
[table][tr][th=""]Season[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]Zone% pfx[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]O-Swing% pfx[/th][th=""]Contact% pfx[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][td]45.30%[/td][td]6.40%[/td][td]33.50%[/td][td]71.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=PJohan Santana[/td][td]44.40%[/td][td]8.50%[/td][td]28.60%[/td][td]73.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Francisco Liriano[/td][td]48.00%[/td][td]7.20%[/td][td]34.00%[/td][td]73.50%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Edwin Jackson[/td][td]46.30%[/td][td]7.00%[/td][td]30.60%[/td][td]74.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]CC Sabathia[/td][td]48.10%[/td][td]6.40%[/td][td]34.00%[/td][td]74.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Ryan Dempster[/td][td]46.70%[/td][td]7.70%[/td][td]31.50%[/td][td]74.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Tim Lincecum[/td][td]48.50%[/td][td]8.50%[/td][td]31.10%[/td][td]75.10%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Tim Lincecum[/td][td]49.00%[/td][td]7.50%[/td][td]30.30%[/td][td]75.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Mat Latos[/td][td]48.00%[/td][td]7.80%[/td][td]31.30%[/td][td]75.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]46.80%[/td][td]6.60%[/td][td]33.10%[/td][td]75.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]45.80%[/td][td]6.30%[/td][td]29.80%[/td][td]75.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]48.70%[/td][td]5.40%[/td][td]33.80%[/td][td]75.80%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]47.50%[/td][td]7.60%[/td][td]31.10%[/td][td]75.80%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Matt Garza[/td][td]48.10%[/td][td]7.50%[/td][td]33.90%[/td][td]76.10%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Chris Capuano[/td][td]47.70%[/td][td]6.60%[/td][td]32.20%[/td][td]76.50%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Hiroki Kuroda[/td][td]48.60%[/td][td]5.90%[/td][td]32.20%[/td][td]76.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]44.70%[/td][td]6.90%[/td][td]31.40%[/td][td]76.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Jaime Garcia[/td][td]48.60%[/td][td]6.10%[/td][td]31.70%[/td][td]76.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Jake Peavy[/td][td]48.30%[/td][td]8.30%[/td][td]28.90%[/td][td]76.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Gavin Floyd[/td][td]48.50%[/td][td]6.30%[/td][td]29.20%[/td][td]77.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]James Shields[/td][td]46.40%[/td][td]7.30%[/td][td]34.20%[/td][td]77.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Matt Garza[/td][td]48.70%[/td][td]6.70%[/td][td]30.30%[/td][td]77.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Brandon Webb[/td][td]47.40%[/td][td]6.90%[/td][td]32.50%[/td][td]77.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]48.10%[/td][td]5.60%[/td][td]30.30%[/td][td]77.80%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Hiroki Kuroda[/td][td]47.80%[/td][td]5.90%[/td][td]30.90%[/td][td]78.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Yovani Gallardo[/td][td]46.20%[/td][td]6.80%[/td][td]28.10%[/td][td]78.50%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Randy Wells[/td][td]45.30%[/td][td]7.50%[/td][td]30.60%[/td][td]78.50%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Dan Haren[/td][td]48.10%[/td][td]5.50%[/td][td]29.70%[/td][td]78.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Josh Johnson[/td][td]46.10%[/td][td]7.60%[/td][td]28.90%[/td][td]78.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Wandy Rodriguez[/td][td]46.80%[/td][td]8.30%[/td][td]29.90%[/td][td]78.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Dan Haren[/td][td]47.60%[/td][td]3.50%[/td][td]34.10%[/td][td]79.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Derek Lowe[/td][td]43.30%[/td][td]5.30%[/td][td]28.80%[/td][td]79.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Chad Billingsley[/td][td]48.70%[/td][td]8.20%[/td][td]26.20%[/td][td]79.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Hiroki Kuroda[/td][td]46.20%[/td][td]7.60%[/td][td]26.80%[/td][td]79.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]Adam Wainwright[/td][td]49.00%[/td][td]6.80%[/td][td]30.20%[/td][td]79.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Derek Lowe[/td][td]36.90%[/td][td]8.40%[/td][td]31.10%[/td][td]79.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Johnny Cueto[/td][td]48.80%[/td][td]7.20%[/td][td]27.70%[/td][td]79.80%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Felix Doubront[/td][td]48.20%[/td][td]7.80%[/td][td]29.40%[/td][td]80.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Wandy Rodriguez[/td][td]46.30%[/td][td]8.50%[/td][td]31.10%[/td][td]80.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Chris Carpenter[/td][td]48.10%[/td][td]6.50%[/td][td]29.10%[/td][td]80.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Brett Myers[/td][td]48.50%[/td][td]7.10%[/td][td]29.50%[/td][td]80.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]Derek Lowe[/td][td]37.80%[/td][td]7.40%[/td][td]31.10%[/td][td]80.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]46.00%[/td][td]6.30%[/td][td]29.10%[/td][td]80.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]Todd Wellemeyer[/td][td]48.90%[/td][td]7.70%[/td][td]29.90%[/td][td]80.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Jon Lester[/td][td]45.70%[/td][td]6.70%[/td][td]29.40%[/td][td]80.50%[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]43.80%[/td][td]5.40%[/td][td]28.80%[/td][td]80.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td]Group Average[/td][td]46.79%[/td][td]6.93%[/td][td]30.65%[/td][td]77.56%[/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td]League Average[/td][td]49.86%[/td][td]8.48%[/td][td]28.06%[/td][td]80.66%[/td][/tr][/table]
Now that we’ve narrowed our list to those pitchers that pitch in the zone less than average but still have better-than-average walk rates — and also garner more whiffs than average — we get a stronger result. These pitchers get whiffs on swings outside the zone, and that helps mute the effect of zone percentage on walk rate.

We still have first-strike rate to fall back on. It makes sense that fewer at-bats that start 0-1 will end up in a walk (4.6% vs the league average of 8.2%), but it also seems that if it was that easy, everyone would just throw strikes on their first pitch.

fstrbbwzone1.png


Here, the r-squared is .435, meaning that first-strike percentage is much more important to walk rate. It explains almost half of the variance in walk rate! That’s pretty impressive. After all those years hearing about the importance of getting strike one and pounding the zone — now we know which is more important.

As a bonus, the size of the circles in this last graph was determined by the pitcher’s zone percentage. As you can see, the bigger circles (better zone percentage) are clustered on the lower part of the graph. Perhaps, with the two together (and o-swing% and contact%?), we can find an equation for expected walk percentage. I’ll just have to go math up a little before we can get there.


The Rockies Should Trade Michael Cuddyer.
Spoiler [+]
Michael Cuddyer will remain a member of the Colorado Rockies. Even though the team has allegedly received numerous calls about the veteran outfielder, Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd has insisted that Cuddyer isn’t going anywhere. But with the Rockies already 13.5 games back, and Cuddyer struggling, O’Dowd may want to reconsider.

When Cuddyer signed his three-year, $31.5 million contract with the Rockies this off-season, there wasn’t a lot of enthusiasm about the move. Though Cuddyer had been a useful player throughout his career, he was also overrated. And as Matt Klaassen pointed out when he analyzed Cuddyer’s deal in December, there were better outfielders on the market that signed for significantly less money. Even if Cuddyer played well, he was likely to be overpaid. Trading him now could allow the Rockies to reap some benefits after handing out a poor contract this off-season.

But Cuddyer has struggled to live up to expectations this season. The 33-year-old is hitting just .261/.316/.486. Plate discipline has never been one of Cuddyer’s strengths, and this year his 7.8% walk rate is even worse than normal. He’s also striking out more often. Cuddyer’s strikeout rate has jumped to 20.2% this season, his worst performance in the category since 2006. A look at Cuddyer’s plate discipline charts confirms those struggles. Cuddyer’s been more aggressive at the plate, but has made less contact than normal this season. Each of Cuddyer’s swing rates (O-Swing%, Z-Swing% and Swing%) are up this season. But all of Cuddyer’s contact rates (O-Contact%, Z-Contact% and Contact%) are down. Cuddyer’s SwStr% has jumped to 9.7, which explains why he’s struck out more often. Pitchers seem to be getting ahead of Cuddyer early in the count, as his F-Strike% is to 63.1% this year.

Cuddyer has regressed while playing in arguably the best hitters park in the game.
[table][tr][th=""]Park Factors[/th][th=""]K[/th][th=""]BB[/th][th=""]1B[/th][th=""]2B[/th][th=""]3B[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][/tr][tr][td]Coors Field[/td][td]90[/td][td]91[/td][td]105[/td][td]118[/td][td]166[/td][td]120[/td][td]112[/td][/tr][tr][td]Target Field[/td][td]96[/td][td]102[/td][td]101[/td][td]103[/td][td]97[/td][td]95[/td][td]101[/td][/tr][/table]
Cuddyer moved from Target Field — which suppresses home runs for righties, but mostly plays neutral — to Coors Field, arguably the best hitters park in the game. And while Cuddyer’s overall numbers have been down, they are inflated by his performance at Coors Field. Cuddyer is currently hitting .294/.364/.529 at home, and just .223/.260/.438 on the road. Without that Coors Field boost, Cuddyer’s slash line wouldn’t be good enough for teams to take interest. Take away Coors Field, and Cuddyer has been a below-average offensive player this season.

Cuddyer has a reputation as a great guy and a team leader, which is one of the reasons O’Dowd may keep him on the team. But in order for this team to compete, they are going to need useful, young players to build around. If teams have legitimate interest in Cuddyer, the Rockies could flip him for a useful cog that might be around when the team is able to compete again. O’Dowd has already built a solid foundation around Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, and getting more young talent around them should be his biggest priority right now.

Cuddyer is in decline. He’s surviving only because he’s been able to hit in one of the friendliest hitters ballparks in the game. And even though his numbers have been good at home, the team isn’t going to contend this season. He’s exactly the type of player that Rockies should be shopping at the deadline. But O’Dowd better change his mind soon, because once other teams start to realize Cuddyer’s performance this season is built on smoke and mirrors, the calls are going to stop.


Stat Nerd NL All-Star Roster.
Spoiler [+]
We did the AL earlier this afternoon, so now we’re tackling the 34 man rosters for the National League. Quick primer in case you didn’t read the AL post — I value first half performance (even flukes) since I see the game as a reward for the players, every team gets a representative, and injured guys are not considered. On to the picks, with starters listed first.

Catcher: Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Ellis, Buster Posey

Don’t need four catchers, but can’t leave any of these guys at home. The first two would be legitimate MVP candidates if not for some first baseman in Cincinnati, and Ellis and Posey have been huge factors in their team’s success as well. They all deserve to go.

Apologies To: Miguel Montero.

First Base: Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt

Hey National League First Baseman Not Named Joey Votto – you suck. Okay, Goldschmidt is having a solid enough year, but the lack of depth behind Votto at the position in the NL is pretty staggering. There are seven qualified NL first baseman with less than +0.6 WAR. Essentially half the team’s in the NL are getting nothing from their first baseman. Let’s move on.

Apologies To: Fans of NL teams who have to watch their league’s first baseman hit.

Second Base: Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill

A pretty balanced group here, with Phillips getting the starting nod mostly because his track record suggests he’s probably the best of the three. While this is a performance reward, when the performance is this close, tie goes to the best guy.

Apologies To: Jose Altuve, who is in if he’s healthy.

Shortstop: Jed Lowrie, Starlin Castro, Jose Reyes

Lowrie’s an easy pick, but it gets a bit tougher to pick the reserves after that. Castro gives us a needed Cubs representative and is pretty much in line with the rest of the non-Lowrie guys, so he gets a spot. Reyes isn’t far back of the group in 2012 performance while being a worthy player based on talent, but I wouldn’t argue much if you wanted to swap him out for one of the others.

Apologies To: Ian Desmond, Rafael Furcal, Jimmy Rollins

Third Base: David Wright, Chase Headley, David Freese

Mostly cut-and-dried here, with Wright as the obvious starter, Headley as the obvious Padres representative, and Freese getting the last spot due to nothing more than personal preference. I’d have no problem with anyone who wanted to change out Freese for someone else out of the pile of similar players.

Apologies To: Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez

Outfield: Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Michael Bourn, Bryce Harper

There are about 15 deserving candidates here, so the apologies list could span a couple of pages, but I took nine so that one of them could serve as the DH – probably Beltran. The first eight guys are all clearly deserving on performance, while Harper gets in as something of a good-for-the-game selection. He’s played well enough that it’s not a charity selection, and having him and Trout make their first all-star games together will simply make the event more fun. This is the one case where I’m going with fan spectacle over pure player performance, and thankfully, Harper has played well enough that he’s not a ridiculous pick on his own merits.

Apologies To: Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler, Martin Prado, Andre Ethier, Jay Bruce

Starting Pitcher: Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, James McDonald

The NL has so many good starting pitchers that I’ve decided that I just can’t exclude as many as I did in the AL, so the NL’s bullpen is going to be almost entirely made up of starters. Really, which of these eight guys don’t deserve to go? Even among the guys who I’m already apologizing to, there are legitimately strong cases for a spot on the roster. The NL might want to consider just bring 33 pitchers and Joey Votto just to be fair to the NL starting pitching field.

Apologies To: Wade Miley, Ryan Vogelsong, Lance Lynn, Cole Hamels, Madison Bumgarner

Relief Pitcher: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel

Probably the two best relievers in baseball right now, so my regrets to all the good setup guys in the NL — sorry, you were aced out by ridiculous starting pitching performances this year.

Apologies To: Tyler Clippard, Matt Belisle, Many Many Others


What Happened to Ricky Romero.
Spoiler [+]
Right now, like as this is being written, Ricky Romero is in the process of getting bombed by the Red Sox. The 27-year-old lefty just finished an inning in which he gave up a double to Dustin Pedroia between two walks before an error and a few groundouts allowed singles from Mike Aviles and Darnell McDonald to plate some runs. Six runs in all. So far all the balls in play have been ground balls — his bailiwick — but something is still off.

Going into the start today, the primary culprits were not at fault. The batting average on balls in play that Romero has allowed this year is higher than the one he allowed last year, yes. But the ‘new’ number is .252 and last year’s number was .241. That’s not the problem. Neither can we blame a velocity drop. Well, he’s down a tick from 92.1 mph to 91.1 mph, but his career velocity is 91.5 mph on the fastball. That’s not the problem, either. He’s using his curveball a little more than he has in the past, but are we going to blame his two-run difference in ERA on 55 extra curveballs this year? It doesn’t look like he’s altered his pitching mix much otherwise, so that doesn’t look like the problem.

The obvious difference comes in his walk rate, and even in today’s big inning, the walks were a problem. Romero walked 10.3% in his rookie season, then he walked 9.3% in his decent followup, and 8.7% in his breakout season last year. Now his walk rate is at a career-worst 11.3%. You have to go back to his first shot at Double-A (in 2007) to find a walk rate that bad. Look at his strike zone stats, and you’ll notice that he’s close to league average at finding the zone (43.3% this year, 45.4% career, 45.4% is the league average this year). It’s probably not those 32 pitches outside the zone that separate him from league average. He is, however, showing a career low in first-strike percentage (52.8%) that’s well below league average (59.7%) and his own average (57%). Perhaps a renewed emphasis on strike one would solve many of Romero’s woes.

On the other hand, his current walk rate is not an extreme outlier. His career walk rate in the minor leagues was 9.7%, which is worse than average. But he was getting enough ground balls and strikeouts to make that walk rate work then. It’s not working that well right now, and there’s a general regression in his other peripherals that is contributing to the problem.

His swinging strike rate is under league average for the first time (8.0%, 8.9% is league average, 9.2% for his career). So it makes sense that he’s lost a couple ticks of his strikeout rate (16.9% this year, 18.9% career). His ground-ball rate is at a career-worst (53.4%, 54.5% career). He’s giving up a career-worst number of home runs off of his fly balls (17.1% HR/FB, 12.5% career). Some of this is luck. None of it, by itself, would sink a player completely. All of it, together, has reduced his effectiveness.

Lastly, there’s the issue of expectations. Pitch to a 2.92 ERA in the AL East over 225 innings and you’re an ace. Pitch to a 4.20 FIP/3.80 xFIP/3.78 SIERA in the AL East over 225 innings, though, and you’re a horse. Considering those numbers describe the same season, perhaps we should just have been expecting a horse. And, given the Blue Jays’ pitching health woes right now, perhaps it’s okay if their ace is actually a horse right now.


Stat Nerd AL All-Star Roster.
Spoiler [+]
On Sunday, the rosters (minus the 34th guy, who is voted in by the fans after the announcement) for the 83rd All-Star game will be announced, and you can be sure that next Monday will be full or discussion over who should and shouldn’t have been included. We’re just going to move up the discussion a few days, though, and so this afternoon I’m presenting the rosters I would select if I have complete and total authority and I was so shallow that I used that authority to select rosters for the All-Star Game. This is a weird hypothetical, but let’s go with it for now.

One quick note – I’m a guy who believes that the All-Star Game is more of a reward for the players than a spectacle for the fans, though it is obviously both at the same time. As such, I place more importance on first half performance than some others who feel that the game should always just be filled with the best players of their time, regardless of how they did in the first three months of the season. If a guy has three fluke months, I’m not keeping him out just because I don’t think he can keep it up. First half totals aren’t the only factor, but for me, they’re the biggest one.

Oh, and we’re playing by the rules, so every team gets a representative, deserving or not, and injured players were not considered since they’re, you know, injured. On to the rosters, with the starter listed first.

Catchers: Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Mauer’s had a nice bounce back season and is one of the few things going right in Minnesota this year. Wieters has been up-and-down at the plate but is a monster defensively, and Salty has been perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the year in Boston. All three are deserving on their own merits, and none of them are here because we needed a representative for their team.

Apologies To: Mike Napoli, A.J. Pierzynski

First Base: Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder, Edwin Encarnacion

Konerko is one of the main reasons the White Sox are atop the AL Central and is a pretty easy pick to serve as the starter this year. Dunn’s resurgence deserves recognition, as does the pretty fantastic performance being put up in Toronto by Encarnacion. Fielder is the only representative of the guys you’d expect to be here, as Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez are notably absent, but they just haven’t played like All-Stars this year.

Apologies To: No one. It’s not a very good year for first baseman.

Second Base: Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist

The Yankees second baseman has pulled away from the pack, but Kipnis and Zobrist are both deserving candidates. Kinsler has faded after a hot start, but with 34 man rosters, there’s room for a quality player having a solid first half, especially since Zobrist can function as a utility guy and play multiple positions.

Apologies To: Ian Kinsler

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera

You could make a case for Cabrera as the starter, but Andrus is having a fantastic year as well, and is definitely the better defender of the two. Besides, you can bring Kipnis and Cabrera in at the same time and have them take over as the AL’s middle infield tandem, which is kind of fun.

Apologies To: Alcides Escobar, Derek Jeter. Escobar made the cut before I realized I had 35 guys, so he was the last cut, and I wish I had room for him.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Moustakas

Beltre is cementing himself as one of the game’s premier all around players, providing his usual combination of good offense and great defense. Cabrera’s offense is down but still All-Star worthy, and Moustakas is one of the best breakout stories of the year.

Apologies To: Brett Lawrie, Kyle Seager

Outfield: Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, Josh Willingham, Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, Josh Reddick

Apologies To: Matt Joyce, Seth Smith, Alex Gordon, Colby Rasmus, Curtis Granderson

Designated Hitter: David Ortiz

The easiest selection in the sport. Big Papi is deserving and has little competition among regular DHs.

Apologies To: Billy Butler

Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Jered Weaver, David Price, Jason Hammel, Jake Peavy

Verlander’s a no-brainer, but there’s a lot of nits to pick after that. Price and Hammel get extra credit for pitching in the AL East, and the White Sox duo have to overcome a tough park to pitch in as well. There are other deserving candidates, but with a large field to pick from, you have to draw lines somewhere.

Apologies To: C.J. Wilson, Felix Hernandez, Matt Harrison

Relief Pitchers: Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, Tom Wilhelmsen, Chris Perez

Nathan and Rodney have both been astonishingly good after being somewhat written off, and both deserve credit for rejuvenating their careers this season. Perez hasn’t allowed a home run all year, which is why he leads the AL in saves and is a deserving selection, while Wilhelmsen is both a terrific reliever and the most deserving member of the Mariners roster. If you found room for someone from Seattle elsewhere on the roster, you could argue for any number of other deserving candidates, but since we filled out the team without any Mariners before now, Wilhelmsen gets the call.

Apologies To: Jim Johnson, Scott Downs, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, Scott Atchison, Countless Others


Cuban OF Yasiel Puig Declared Free Agent.
Spoiler [+]
Cuban outfielders have been a hot commodity over the past year, and another young Cuban defector was declared a free agent on Tuesday evening and is now able to sign with any major league team, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

Twenty-one-year-old Yasiel Puig has long attempted to make his way to the United States. In fact, he was suspended from playing in the Cuban Serie Nacional this past season due to attempting to defect. He successfully did so this summer, establishing temporary residency in Mexico, and is expected to agree to terms rather quickly in hopes of signing prior to July 2, when the new CBA regulations  will severely limit international spending.

The vast majority of the attention amongst Cuban outfielders centered around Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler, and it should have. Puig possesses raw power — and actually showed game-power back in the 2010-2011 season with 17 home runs — but Ben Badler of Baseball America recently noted that the most recent scouting reports on the young outfielder have been extremely underwhelming.

Despite those disappointing reports and the fact that Puig has not played organized baseball in a year, teams will absolutely be lining up to ink him to a minor-league deal. Badler writes that the Texas Rangers have shown interest, and Jesse Sanchez hears from industry sources that five teams have expressed “serious interest
 
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