Orioles Rush Machado. Good For Them.
What Will Melky Cabrera Make On The Market?
Mike Fiers or Marco Estrada for the Future?
Bartolo Colon’s Streak Without An Earned Run.
Reviewing the AL Sleeper Prospects of 2012.
Lyle Overbay: Sneaky Stretch Addition?
After last night’s victory over the Mariners, the Orioles announced they were calling up top prospect Manny Machado from Double-A and giving him the third base job for the stretch run. Wilson Betemit hasn’t been a total disaster, posting a 100 wRC+ in 356 plate appearances, but he’s one of the worst defensive players in baseball and is dreadful against lefties, so moving him into a 1B/DH platoon isn’t a bad use of his skills.
The promotion is still a bit of a surprise, however, as Machado is a teenager whose numbers in Double-A don’t suggest that he’s ready to start hitting Major League pitching right away. A .266/.352/.438 line isn’t all that different from what Betemit is doing, and of course Machado is posting that line against inferior pitching. But, despite the mediocre looking slash line, there are reasons to think that Machado might be more ready for the big leagues than the raw numbers suggest.
The first thing to note is that the Eastern League isn’t exactly an offensive haven. The average hitter in the EL this year is hitting .260/.331/.392, and the run environment for the league is just 4.31 runs per game. This isn’t the PCL or the Cal League, where you need to hit .350 just to call it a respectable season. Machado’s line might not look all that sexy, but it is good for a 122 wRC+, and ties him for the 18th best offensive season of any qualified player down there. He’s not tearing up the league, but relative to his peers, his overall line is still pretty good.
Then, there’s the park to consider. Our minor league wRC+ doesn’t include park factors right now, but if it did, Machado would jump to around 130 or so. Dan Szymborski’s published minor league park factors give Bowie a 95, which makes it the most pitcher friendly park in the Eastern League. Not surprisingly, Machado has shown a pretty large home/road split, hitting .254/.327/.398 at home and .279/.375/.478 on the road. Bowie isn’t Petco or anything, but it’s not a great place to hit, and we need to keep that in mind when looking at Machado’s overall numbers.
Still, given that he was only good-not-great in Double-A, he’s probably not ready to come in and dominate in a playoff push. For context, when the Marlins promoted Miguel Cabrera from Double-A at age 20, he was hitting .365/.429/.609 as a 20-year-old, and was still only capable of putting up a 105 wRC+ as a rookie. The two level jump is a big one, especially for an inexperienced kid who probably hasn’t seen a lot of high quality off-speed stuff yet. Odds are pretty decent that he’s going to struggle, and that he’s not going to represent any kind of real upgrade over Betemit down the stretch.
But the odds are already stacked against the Orioles anyway. They are 60-51 despite being outscored by 47 runs, and everyone keeps expecting them to fall out of the race any day now. Instead, they just keep winning. Yes, they’ve built their record on unsustainable performances, racking up 12 straight extra inning wins and going 22-6 in one run games. The way the Orioles have put themselves in contention suggests that they’re not as good as their record suggests, and that of all the teams fighting for the wild card, they’re the one least likely to continue winning games at this pace.
But none of that should matter to the Orioles. The reality is that those 111 games are in the books, and no one is going to be stripping wins from them simply because they won more close games than we would have expected. Baltimore is tied with Oakland and Detroit for the lead in the wild card race with 51 games to go, and in that kind of small sample, the variation in expected record around a team’s true talent level is pretty large. Even if we accept that the Orioles are playing over their heads, that does not preclude them from continuing to play over their heads for the rest of the season.
It might not be the most likely outcome, but the Orioles shouldn’t give up on a playoff run simply because the results aren’t likely to turn out in their favor. Even if we thought the Orioles were a true talent .460 team, we’d still expect there to be a wide range of possible outcomes given their current situation. In general, standard deviations around a team’s true talent level are believed to be about eight to 10 wins per full season, so it’s completely normal for a 75 win team to win 65 or 85 games just due to normal variation. In smaller samples, the variations are even larger, so even if we analyze the Orioles as a true talent .460 winning percentage team, that just means that they’ll probably win between something like 39%-53% of their games in August and September. In other words, they could be good, they could be bad, or they could be anything in between. Their underlying stats suggest that the mean is shifted towards the losing side of the curve, but that doesn’t mean that the winning side doesn’t exist simply because they’ve already “gotten lucky” in terms of wins and losses. They are not more likely to underperform now simply because they’ve already overperformed in the first four months.
The Orioles shouldn’t be the favorites to capture a playoff spot, but there’s a real chance that they sneak in and steal one. Cool Standings gives them a 19% chance of making the playoffs, which is simply too large of a window to ignore. The potential returns on a playoff run are huge, and push the value of going for it well into the positive, even given the unlikelihood of success.
We can sit here and say that Machado is probably not ready for the big leagues, and the Orioles probably aren’t going be able to hang around with Detroit, Anaheim, and Oakland in the wild card hunt, and odds are pretty good that at the end of the season, we’ll be right. But, what good does it do Dan Duquette to join in that crowd and tell his fan base to not get too excited because this probably won’t last? The Orioles wisely chose not to punt their future to make a marginal upgrade at the trade deadline, but calling up Machado now is nothing like trading away a good young player for a rent-a-veteran. The Orioles are basically giving themselves another lottery ticket, and if Machado’s talent overcomes his lack of experience, then they might have a slightly better chance of continuing to beat the odds.
That it probably won’t be enough isn’t really the question. Is it worth trying in a season where the team has given fans a reason to come back to the park, even if the odds are stacked against them? Absolutely. The cost of promoting Machado at this point is quite low. If he flops, then he’ll simply start next year back in the minors, and they’ll still be able to manage his service time if they want to get that extra year of team control. The only way they lose that extra year is if he’s good enough to force them to keep him in in the Majors for the next seven years, which also sounds like a pretty good outcome for the Orioles.
Perhaps the more interesting decision will come in September if the team is still hanging around in the wild card race. The Orioles also promoted Dylan Bundy to Double-A after his start for Frederick last night, and if they get into September and need an additional arm, they’ll have a premium stuff teenager knocking on the door. That one might be a tougher call, given how hard they’ve tried to manage his workload this year, but limiting his innings in April and May might serve to give them confidence that he’s still got something left for September. If Machado hits and the Orioles win, we could be having this same conversation about Bundy’s promotion in three weeks.
For the Orioles franchise and the sake of a fan base that hasn’t had much to cheer about in the last 15 years, I hope they keep beating the odds, and I’m glad to see that they’re willing to take steps to try and push those numbers towards the more favorable outcomes when they can.
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The promotion is still a bit of a surprise, however, as Machado is a teenager whose numbers in Double-A don’t suggest that he’s ready to start hitting Major League pitching right away. A .266/.352/.438 line isn’t all that different from what Betemit is doing, and of course Machado is posting that line against inferior pitching. But, despite the mediocre looking slash line, there are reasons to think that Machado might be more ready for the big leagues than the raw numbers suggest.
The first thing to note is that the Eastern League isn’t exactly an offensive haven. The average hitter in the EL this year is hitting .260/.331/.392, and the run environment for the league is just 4.31 runs per game. This isn’t the PCL or the Cal League, where you need to hit .350 just to call it a respectable season. Machado’s line might not look all that sexy, but it is good for a 122 wRC+, and ties him for the 18th best offensive season of any qualified player down there. He’s not tearing up the league, but relative to his peers, his overall line is still pretty good.
Then, there’s the park to consider. Our minor league wRC+ doesn’t include park factors right now, but if it did, Machado would jump to around 130 or so. Dan Szymborski’s published minor league park factors give Bowie a 95, which makes it the most pitcher friendly park in the Eastern League. Not surprisingly, Machado has shown a pretty large home/road split, hitting .254/.327/.398 at home and .279/.375/.478 on the road. Bowie isn’t Petco or anything, but it’s not a great place to hit, and we need to keep that in mind when looking at Machado’s overall numbers.
Still, given that he was only good-not-great in Double-A, he’s probably not ready to come in and dominate in a playoff push. For context, when the Marlins promoted Miguel Cabrera from Double-A at age 20, he was hitting .365/.429/.609 as a 20-year-old, and was still only capable of putting up a 105 wRC+ as a rookie. The two level jump is a big one, especially for an inexperienced kid who probably hasn’t seen a lot of high quality off-speed stuff yet. Odds are pretty decent that he’s going to struggle, and that he’s not going to represent any kind of real upgrade over Betemit down the stretch.
But the odds are already stacked against the Orioles anyway. They are 60-51 despite being outscored by 47 runs, and everyone keeps expecting them to fall out of the race any day now. Instead, they just keep winning. Yes, they’ve built their record on unsustainable performances, racking up 12 straight extra inning wins and going 22-6 in one run games. The way the Orioles have put themselves in contention suggests that they’re not as good as their record suggests, and that of all the teams fighting for the wild card, they’re the one least likely to continue winning games at this pace.
But none of that should matter to the Orioles. The reality is that those 111 games are in the books, and no one is going to be stripping wins from them simply because they won more close games than we would have expected. Baltimore is tied with Oakland and Detroit for the lead in the wild card race with 51 games to go, and in that kind of small sample, the variation in expected record around a team’s true talent level is pretty large. Even if we accept that the Orioles are playing over their heads, that does not preclude them from continuing to play over their heads for the rest of the season.
It might not be the most likely outcome, but the Orioles shouldn’t give up on a playoff run simply because the results aren’t likely to turn out in their favor. Even if we thought the Orioles were a true talent .460 team, we’d still expect there to be a wide range of possible outcomes given their current situation. In general, standard deviations around a team’s true talent level are believed to be about eight to 10 wins per full season, so it’s completely normal for a 75 win team to win 65 or 85 games just due to normal variation. In smaller samples, the variations are even larger, so even if we analyze the Orioles as a true talent .460 winning percentage team, that just means that they’ll probably win between something like 39%-53% of their games in August and September. In other words, they could be good, they could be bad, or they could be anything in between. Their underlying stats suggest that the mean is shifted towards the losing side of the curve, but that doesn’t mean that the winning side doesn’t exist simply because they’ve already “gotten lucky” in terms of wins and losses. They are not more likely to underperform now simply because they’ve already overperformed in the first four months.
The Orioles shouldn’t be the favorites to capture a playoff spot, but there’s a real chance that they sneak in and steal one. Cool Standings gives them a 19% chance of making the playoffs, which is simply too large of a window to ignore. The potential returns on a playoff run are huge, and push the value of going for it well into the positive, even given the unlikelihood of success.
We can sit here and say that Machado is probably not ready for the big leagues, and the Orioles probably aren’t going be able to hang around with Detroit, Anaheim, and Oakland in the wild card hunt, and odds are pretty good that at the end of the season, we’ll be right. But, what good does it do Dan Duquette to join in that crowd and tell his fan base to not get too excited because this probably won’t last? The Orioles wisely chose not to punt their future to make a marginal upgrade at the trade deadline, but calling up Machado now is nothing like trading away a good young player for a rent-a-veteran. The Orioles are basically giving themselves another lottery ticket, and if Machado’s talent overcomes his lack of experience, then they might have a slightly better chance of continuing to beat the odds.
That it probably won’t be enough isn’t really the question. Is it worth trying in a season where the team has given fans a reason to come back to the park, even if the odds are stacked against them? Absolutely. The cost of promoting Machado at this point is quite low. If he flops, then he’ll simply start next year back in the minors, and they’ll still be able to manage his service time if they want to get that extra year of team control. The only way they lose that extra year is if he’s good enough to force them to keep him in in the Majors for the next seven years, which also sounds like a pretty good outcome for the Orioles.
Perhaps the more interesting decision will come in September if the team is still hanging around in the wild card race. The Orioles also promoted Dylan Bundy to Double-A after his start for Frederick last night, and if they get into September and need an additional arm, they’ll have a premium stuff teenager knocking on the door. That one might be a tougher call, given how hard they’ve tried to manage his workload this year, but limiting his innings in April and May might serve to give them confidence that he’s still got something left for September. If Machado hits and the Orioles win, we could be having this same conversation about Bundy’s promotion in three weeks.
For the Orioles franchise and the sake of a fan base that hasn’t had much to cheer about in the last 15 years, I hope they keep beating the odds, and I’m glad to see that they’re willing to take steps to try and push those numbers towards the more favorable outcomes when they can.
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What Will Melky Cabrera Make On The Market?
Melky Cabrera is having a career-year. After posting 4.2 WAR last year, Cabrera has once again been effective. The 27-year-old outfielder has already passed that total this season, accumulating 4.8 WAR so far.
Cabrera’s performance comes at a great time for him. At the end of the season, he can become a free-agent. And it looks like he’ll have a chance to hit the market, since the San Francisco Giants have put off negotiations with him until then. Cabrera’s two-year breakout is also interesting since he’s never produced like this before. All of those factors make Cabrera one of the most unique players to hit the market in quite some time. Because of that, no one is really sure how much he’ll make.
For the purpose of this article, I’m not going to focus on whether Cabrera’s performance is sustainable. Many teams will likely be cautious with Cabrera considering his past performance never gave any indication that he would breakout like this. I’m going to focus mainly on how much value he’s produced recently, and compare it to similar contracts.
Trying to find similar players to Cabrera is difficult. Sorting by players who accumulated similar value throughout their careers may not be helpful since Cabrera is mainly going to be paid for what he’s done the last two seasons. At least it gives us a starting point, and more examples of potential contract ideas for Cabrera. Over his career, Cabrera has been worth 11.6 WAR. His first year in the league with significant playing time came when he was 21-years-old, and he’s 27-years-old now. Sorting with those parameters gives us a good starting place. (You’ll have to skip to page three on that list to find Cabrera.)
As expected, the list doesn’t give us many great comparisons. Most of the players on that list were average players who never signed long-term deals, or younger guys who accumulated the same amount of WAR in less time than Cabrera. There were three players that stood out on the list.
Player First Year WAR Deal
Justin Morneau Age-23 12.0 Six-year, $80 million
Torii Hunter Age-23 12.6 Four-year, $32 million
Alex Gordon Age-23 11.8 Four-year, $37.5 million
All of these players produced similar value to Cabrera during their careers, and signed deals at age-27. This list is far from perfect, though. All three players on the list experienced their first seasons with significant playing time at age-23, two years later than Cabrera. All three players also signed extensions with their teams, which means they probably took less than they could have received on the market. This also gives us a wide range to work with. Gordon and Hunter made around $30 million, but Morneau made $80 million. The most comparable player of this bunch is probably Gordon, who experienced a similar surge in value right before he signed his extension. And that could be a fair starting point when you consider Cabrera’s breakout has lasted two seasons, and Cabrera will be able to test the market. At the very least, Gordon’s contract gives us the floor for a Cabrera deal.
In order to account for Cabrera’s recent performance, we can use the same criteria, but sort to only include players during their age-26 and age-27 seasons. That should give us players who experienced similar value just before receiving a new contract.
In his last two years, Cabrera has accumulated 9.0 WAR. There’s a good chance he’ll add to that number before the season is out, too. Using the new list, there were two players that produced similar value, and signed a deal after their age-27 season.
Player WAR Deal
Jimmy Rollins 9.3 Five-year, $40 million
Alex Rios 10.6 Seven-year, $70 million
Melky Cabrera 9.0 ???
Again, these deals are not completely ideal as both were actually extensions. Still, they give us an idea of what might happen. What’s interesting is that Jimmy Rollins made $40 million while signing an extension in 2006. That could suggest that Cabrera is sure to make more this off-season.
The more interesting comparison here is Alex Rios. Rios had a decent career before exploding for two straight seasons of +5 WAR before signing his extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. Cabrera is highly unlikely to receive a seven-year deal on the market, but should make more per season since he’ll make it to the free agent market. In the first two years of his extension, Rios made less than $6 million both years. Since Cabrera is already making $6 million this season, he’s unlikely to take a pay cut with his new team.
So, let’s put together the information that we have and estimate a contract for Cabrera. Since Gordon was our most recent example, let’s assume Cabrera signs a four-year deal. We’ve also determined that Rios’ deal is too long, and too cheap early on. The Blue Jays were able to make those two seasons relatively cheap since Rios was an extension. That won’t happen to Cabrera on the market. So, we’re going to sign Cabrera to four years of the Rios contract, but drop the first two seasons. That gives us a four-year, $46.2 million deal for Cabrera. And Assuming Cabrera demands five years, we can add in the final year on Rios’ deal, giving us a five-year, $58.7 million deal. Either way, Cabrera will make slightly over $10 million per season.
Going back to Gordon’s deal, this actually makes sense. Gordon is our most recent comparison and he only made $37.5 million over four years. But since Melky will hit the market, he’ll likely command a larger salary. It looks like anywhere between $45 million to $60 million is what it’s going to take to sign Cabrera.
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Cabrera’s performance comes at a great time for him. At the end of the season, he can become a free-agent. And it looks like he’ll have a chance to hit the market, since the San Francisco Giants have put off negotiations with him until then. Cabrera’s two-year breakout is also interesting since he’s never produced like this before. All of those factors make Cabrera one of the most unique players to hit the market in quite some time. Because of that, no one is really sure how much he’ll make.
For the purpose of this article, I’m not going to focus on whether Cabrera’s performance is sustainable. Many teams will likely be cautious with Cabrera considering his past performance never gave any indication that he would breakout like this. I’m going to focus mainly on how much value he’s produced recently, and compare it to similar contracts.
Trying to find similar players to Cabrera is difficult. Sorting by players who accumulated similar value throughout their careers may not be helpful since Cabrera is mainly going to be paid for what he’s done the last two seasons. At least it gives us a starting point, and more examples of potential contract ideas for Cabrera. Over his career, Cabrera has been worth 11.6 WAR. His first year in the league with significant playing time came when he was 21-years-old, and he’s 27-years-old now. Sorting with those parameters gives us a good starting place. (You’ll have to skip to page three on that list to find Cabrera.)
As expected, the list doesn’t give us many great comparisons. Most of the players on that list were average players who never signed long-term deals, or younger guys who accumulated the same amount of WAR in less time than Cabrera. There were three players that stood out on the list.
Player First Year WAR Deal
Justin Morneau Age-23 12.0 Six-year, $80 million
Torii Hunter Age-23 12.6 Four-year, $32 million
Alex Gordon Age-23 11.8 Four-year, $37.5 million
All of these players produced similar value to Cabrera during their careers, and signed deals at age-27. This list is far from perfect, though. All three players on the list experienced their first seasons with significant playing time at age-23, two years later than Cabrera. All three players also signed extensions with their teams, which means they probably took less than they could have received on the market. This also gives us a wide range to work with. Gordon and Hunter made around $30 million, but Morneau made $80 million. The most comparable player of this bunch is probably Gordon, who experienced a similar surge in value right before he signed his extension. And that could be a fair starting point when you consider Cabrera’s breakout has lasted two seasons, and Cabrera will be able to test the market. At the very least, Gordon’s contract gives us the floor for a Cabrera deal.
In order to account for Cabrera’s recent performance, we can use the same criteria, but sort to only include players during their age-26 and age-27 seasons. That should give us players who experienced similar value just before receiving a new contract.
In his last two years, Cabrera has accumulated 9.0 WAR. There’s a good chance he’ll add to that number before the season is out, too. Using the new list, there were two players that produced similar value, and signed a deal after their age-27 season.
Player WAR Deal
Jimmy Rollins 9.3 Five-year, $40 million
Alex Rios 10.6 Seven-year, $70 million
Melky Cabrera 9.0 ???
Again, these deals are not completely ideal as both were actually extensions. Still, they give us an idea of what might happen. What’s interesting is that Jimmy Rollins made $40 million while signing an extension in 2006. That could suggest that Cabrera is sure to make more this off-season.
The more interesting comparison here is Alex Rios. Rios had a decent career before exploding for two straight seasons of +5 WAR before signing his extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. Cabrera is highly unlikely to receive a seven-year deal on the market, but should make more per season since he’ll make it to the free agent market. In the first two years of his extension, Rios made less than $6 million both years. Since Cabrera is already making $6 million this season, he’s unlikely to take a pay cut with his new team.
So, let’s put together the information that we have and estimate a contract for Cabrera. Since Gordon was our most recent example, let’s assume Cabrera signs a four-year deal. We’ve also determined that Rios’ deal is too long, and too cheap early on. The Blue Jays were able to make those two seasons relatively cheap since Rios was an extension. That won’t happen to Cabrera on the market. So, we’re going to sign Cabrera to four years of the Rios contract, but drop the first two seasons. That gives us a four-year, $46.2 million deal for Cabrera. And Assuming Cabrera demands five years, we can add in the final year on Rios’ deal, giving us a five-year, $58.7 million deal. Either way, Cabrera will make slightly over $10 million per season.
Going back to Gordon’s deal, this actually makes sense. Gordon is our most recent comparison and he only made $37.5 million over four years. But since Melky will hit the market, he’ll likely command a larger salary. It looks like anywhere between $45 million to $60 million is what it’s going to take to sign Cabrera.
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Mike Fiers or Marco Estrada for the Future?
The Brewers current rotation might be the most fascinating group in baseball at the moment. With Chris Narveson and Shaun Marcum on the DL and Zack Greinke in Anaheim, the team has had to turn to three unproven big league starters to fill out their rotation – Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Mark Rogers. Generally, when you move a guy from the bullpen to the rotation and call up two kids from the minors, the results aren’t great, but Fiers, Estrada, and Rogers have been fantastic, and the team hasn’t seen a real drop-off by going with the kids.
Fiers has gotten the most attention, as he’s run off nine straight starts with at least six innings pitched while allowing two runs or fewer, posting a 1.03 ERA over that 61 inning stretch. And, certainly, Fiers story deserves to be told, especially considering his 88 mph fastball and general lack of pedigree as any kind of top prospect. His eye-popping 5/1 K/BB ratio without big time stuff has made him a central topic of discussion, and rightfully so. However, when I was looking at the list of guys who have posted similar statistical seasons to Fiers, I couldn’t help but notice that Estrada was on that list too.
To filter out Fiers-like pitchers, I looked at starting pitchers over the last 11 years who have posted a walk rate below 6%, a strikeout rate above 20%, and a ground ball rate below 35%. Essentially, this skill set is strike-throwing fly ball guy who misses more bats than you might expect due to location and deception, and the other names who have had similar types of seasons are all pretty good pitchers — Ted Lilly, Scott Baker, Colby Lewis, and Phil Hughes. But, those four are joined not just by Fiers, but also by Estrada, who is having a very similar season to Fiers in some ways.
If we look at them side by side as just starting pitchers this year, the comparison looks like this:
Fiers 79 IP 5.1% BB% 24.8% K% 30.7% GB% .286 BABIP
Estrada 72 IP 4.1% BB% 24.9% K% 32.8% GB% .290 BABIP
In four of the five main variables that drive run prevention, Fiers and Estrada are nearly equal. However, Fiers has a 1.82 ERA as a starter, while Estrada checks in at 4.40. The difference? The long ball.
Fiers’ HR/FB rate is just 3.6%, while Estrada checks in at 15.8%, which translates to an extra 12 home runs allowed for Estrada despite facing 22 fewer batters. The average home run generates about 1.4 runs of offense, so we’d have expected those 12 home runs to lead to an extra 17 runs allowed for Estrada, while the actual gap is 20 runs allowed. In other words, nearly all of the difference in run prevention between the two is home run prevention.
We can be pretty sure that neither of these guys are going to keep giving up home runs at their current paces. Even if Fiers was the second coming of Matt Cain (career 6.8% HR/FB) or Jered Weaver (7.5%), we’d still expect him to be north of 8% simply because of the ballpark he’s playing in. And, of course, 70 innings isn’t near enough of a sample to conclude that Fiers’ home run prevention skills make him another exception to the rule.
With Estrada, we have a little more data that points to a home run problem not being a complete fluke, as 12.5% of his fly balls had gone for home runs even before this season began, so this isn’t entirely new for him. Of course, we’re still dealing with a career total of just over 200 innings, so we don’t want to say that Estrada is definitely the new Brett Myers just yet. Most likely, Estrada’s home run rate is going to come down while Fiers is going to go up, but you know all of this already.
But, the question remains: if the Brewers have to just pick one for their 2013 rotation — this is a hypothetical, as they can of course have both if they want — which one would you rather go with? The 2012 performance results obviously point to Fiers, but the stuff points to Estrada, as his fastball is two full ticks higher, and he’s generated more swings and more swinging strikes than Fiers as a starter. Estrada also has a longer Major League track record of missing bats, while Fiers is running a higher strikeout rate in the Majors than he did in Triple-A, which is fairly unusual.
You can make arguments for preferring the long term future for either one. I’m honestly not sure what side I’d come down on, so let’s put this to a poll. Pick one – Michael Fiers or Marco Estrada. Who you got?
Fiers has gotten the most attention, as he’s run off nine straight starts with at least six innings pitched while allowing two runs or fewer, posting a 1.03 ERA over that 61 inning stretch. And, certainly, Fiers story deserves to be told, especially considering his 88 mph fastball and general lack of pedigree as any kind of top prospect. His eye-popping 5/1 K/BB ratio without big time stuff has made him a central topic of discussion, and rightfully so. However, when I was looking at the list of guys who have posted similar statistical seasons to Fiers, I couldn’t help but notice that Estrada was on that list too.
To filter out Fiers-like pitchers, I looked at starting pitchers over the last 11 years who have posted a walk rate below 6%, a strikeout rate above 20%, and a ground ball rate below 35%. Essentially, this skill set is strike-throwing fly ball guy who misses more bats than you might expect due to location and deception, and the other names who have had similar types of seasons are all pretty good pitchers — Ted Lilly, Scott Baker, Colby Lewis, and Phil Hughes. But, those four are joined not just by Fiers, but also by Estrada, who is having a very similar season to Fiers in some ways.
If we look at them side by side as just starting pitchers this year, the comparison looks like this:
Fiers 79 IP 5.1% BB% 24.8% K% 30.7% GB% .286 BABIP
Estrada 72 IP 4.1% BB% 24.9% K% 32.8% GB% .290 BABIP
In four of the five main variables that drive run prevention, Fiers and Estrada are nearly equal. However, Fiers has a 1.82 ERA as a starter, while Estrada checks in at 4.40. The difference? The long ball.
Fiers’ HR/FB rate is just 3.6%, while Estrada checks in at 15.8%, which translates to an extra 12 home runs allowed for Estrada despite facing 22 fewer batters. The average home run generates about 1.4 runs of offense, so we’d have expected those 12 home runs to lead to an extra 17 runs allowed for Estrada, while the actual gap is 20 runs allowed. In other words, nearly all of the difference in run prevention between the two is home run prevention.
We can be pretty sure that neither of these guys are going to keep giving up home runs at their current paces. Even if Fiers was the second coming of Matt Cain (career 6.8% HR/FB) or Jered Weaver (7.5%), we’d still expect him to be north of 8% simply because of the ballpark he’s playing in. And, of course, 70 innings isn’t near enough of a sample to conclude that Fiers’ home run prevention skills make him another exception to the rule.
With Estrada, we have a little more data that points to a home run problem not being a complete fluke, as 12.5% of his fly balls had gone for home runs even before this season began, so this isn’t entirely new for him. Of course, we’re still dealing with a career total of just over 200 innings, so we don’t want to say that Estrada is definitely the new Brett Myers just yet. Most likely, Estrada’s home run rate is going to come down while Fiers is going to go up, but you know all of this already.
But, the question remains: if the Brewers have to just pick one for their 2013 rotation — this is a hypothetical, as they can of course have both if they want — which one would you rather go with? The 2012 performance results obviously point to Fiers, but the stuff points to Estrada, as his fastball is two full ticks higher, and he’s generated more swings and more swinging strikes than Fiers as a starter. Estrada also has a longer Major League track record of missing bats, while Fiers is running a higher strikeout rate in the Majors than he did in Triple-A, which is fairly unusual.
You can make arguments for preferring the long term future for either one. I’m honestly not sure what side I’d come down on, so let’s put this to a poll. Pick one – Michael Fiers or Marco Estrada. Who you got?
Bartolo Colon’s Streak Without An Earned Run.
On Tuesday evening, 39-year-old Bartolo Colon handcuffed the Los Angeles Angels for seven innings, only surrendering a single unearned run in his final inning of work.
Although that unearned run ended his consecutive scoreless inning streak at 22.1 innings, he does currently maintain a streak of 22.2 innings without surrendering an earned run. The last earned run given up by the right-hander came on a solo home run by the Yankees’ Curtis Granderson on July 22 in Oakland. Since that home run … nothing.
Extended stints without allowing an earned run are not uncommon in Major League Baseball. After all, Ryan Dempster threw 33-consecutive innings without surrendering an earned or unearned run in July.
Instead, the intriguing aspect of Colon’s streak lies in his pitch selection and how he is finding success on the mound.
On Tuesday against the Angels, Bartolo Colon threw 83 fastballs amongst the 93 pitches needed to span his seven-inning performance. He threw a fastball 89.2% of the time. The crazy part of that extreme reliance on his fastball is that it perfectly mirrors his seasonal numbers. In 2012, the Dominican Republic native has featured his fastball in 89% of his pitches. That is by far the highest in the league amongst qualified pitchers, with Justin Masterson (78.6%) ranking second.
We can take this even further, though. Since 2002 — when FanGraphs began having pitch-specific data — no pitcher (min. 100 innings) has thrown a higher percentage of fastballs in a single season than Bartolo Colon has in 2012. Justin Masterson again shows up in 2011, throwing his fastball 84.4% of the time, but that is the closest challenger to Colon’s 89% fastball usage this year.
Most pitchers who heavily rely on a fastball either generate a high percentage of ground balls — such as Justin Masterson or Aaron Cook — or miss a ton of bats with the fastball.
Bartolo Colon does neither. He is just above the league average for ground ball rates this season, sitting at 46.3%, and his career average ground ball rate is only 41.9%. Not only that, but he also has the lowest SwStr% of any qualified pitcher this year at 4.5%. On Tuesday evening, he threw 83 fastballs and got Angels’ hitters to swing and miss at exactly one fastball throughout his entire seven innings on the mound.
Certainly playing in the cavernous O.co Coliseum aids his success — as does having the Oakland Athletics defense behind him — but the majority of his success comes from pounding the strike zone, limiting walks, and getting opposing hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Despite throwing mostly fastballs with a pedestrian average of 90.3 miles per hour, Colon induces swings at pitches outside the strike zone 32.6% of the time — though opposing hitters do not often swing and miss outside the strike zone. Instead, he is able to induce weaker contact outside the zone.
To narrow the scope to his last three starts, within which the vast majority of his recent streak has occurred, Bartolo Colon has thrown 290 pitches. Of those 290 pitches, 262 of them have been fastballs (90.3%). Of those 262 fastballs, the right-hander has only induced 11 whiffs, meaning he has generated a 4.2% SwStr% on his fastball over that stretch.
All of those numbers are almost identical to his season numbers, yet he is experiencing abnormal success. At 39 years old, Bartolo Colon has been fascinating to watch. He is once again finding success in a major league rotation, despite legitimately being a one-trick pony.
Colon is tentatively scheduled to pitch next Tuesday on the road against the Kansas City Royals, where he will attempt to lengthen his streak, and you can be sure the Royals hitters already know what’s coming: a heavy diet of fastballs in the strike zone.
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Although that unearned run ended his consecutive scoreless inning streak at 22.1 innings, he does currently maintain a streak of 22.2 innings without surrendering an earned run. The last earned run given up by the right-hander came on a solo home run by the Yankees’ Curtis Granderson on July 22 in Oakland. Since that home run … nothing.
Extended stints without allowing an earned run are not uncommon in Major League Baseball. After all, Ryan Dempster threw 33-consecutive innings without surrendering an earned or unearned run in July.
Instead, the intriguing aspect of Colon’s streak lies in his pitch selection and how he is finding success on the mound.
On Tuesday against the Angels, Bartolo Colon threw 83 fastballs amongst the 93 pitches needed to span his seven-inning performance. He threw a fastball 89.2% of the time. The crazy part of that extreme reliance on his fastball is that it perfectly mirrors his seasonal numbers. In 2012, the Dominican Republic native has featured his fastball in 89% of his pitches. That is by far the highest in the league amongst qualified pitchers, with Justin Masterson (78.6%) ranking second.
We can take this even further, though. Since 2002 — when FanGraphs began having pitch-specific data — no pitcher (min. 100 innings) has thrown a higher percentage of fastballs in a single season than Bartolo Colon has in 2012. Justin Masterson again shows up in 2011, throwing his fastball 84.4% of the time, but that is the closest challenger to Colon’s 89% fastball usage this year.
Most pitchers who heavily rely on a fastball either generate a high percentage of ground balls — such as Justin Masterson or Aaron Cook — or miss a ton of bats with the fastball.
Bartolo Colon does neither. He is just above the league average for ground ball rates this season, sitting at 46.3%, and his career average ground ball rate is only 41.9%. Not only that, but he also has the lowest SwStr% of any qualified pitcher this year at 4.5%. On Tuesday evening, he threw 83 fastballs and got Angels’ hitters to swing and miss at exactly one fastball throughout his entire seven innings on the mound.
Certainly playing in the cavernous O.co Coliseum aids his success — as does having the Oakland Athletics defense behind him — but the majority of his success comes from pounding the strike zone, limiting walks, and getting opposing hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Despite throwing mostly fastballs with a pedestrian average of 90.3 miles per hour, Colon induces swings at pitches outside the strike zone 32.6% of the time — though opposing hitters do not often swing and miss outside the strike zone. Instead, he is able to induce weaker contact outside the zone.
To narrow the scope to his last three starts, within which the vast majority of his recent streak has occurred, Bartolo Colon has thrown 290 pitches. Of those 290 pitches, 262 of them have been fastballs (90.3%). Of those 262 fastballs, the right-hander has only induced 11 whiffs, meaning he has generated a 4.2% SwStr% on his fastball over that stretch.
All of those numbers are almost identical to his season numbers, yet he is experiencing abnormal success. At 39 years old, Bartolo Colon has been fascinating to watch. He is once again finding success in a major league rotation, despite legitimately being a one-trick pony.
Colon is tentatively scheduled to pitch next Tuesday on the road against the Kansas City Royals, where he will attempt to lengthen his streak, and you can be sure the Royals hitters already know what’s coming: a heavy diet of fastballs in the strike zone.
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Reviewing the AL Sleeper Prospects of 2012.
One of the more enjoyable parts of the annual Top 15 prospects lists that I do at FanGraphs is unearthing and writing about new, unpolished prospect gems. As a result, I added an extra player to each Top 15 list during the pre-2012 series and highlighted a “sleeper prospect” that did not make it into the featured group.
The minor league regular season ends in less than a month and the 2013 Top 15 prospect lists are already forming in my mind so I though it would be a good time to reflect back on my collection of sleepers and see how many of them woke up.
The AL East
Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Pompey, 19, was assigned to short-season Vancouver to begin 2012 and was looking good (20.5 BB%, 172 wRC+) before a broken hamate bone in his left wrist wiped out his season after just 11 games.
Zach Davies, RHP, Baltimore Orioles: The 19-year-old hurler received an aggressive assignment to low-A ball in 2012 despite not playing in ’11 after signing his first pro contract. He’s done a solid job in 20 appearances (12 starts), although his strikeout rate (6.63 K/9) could use some helium.
Jeff Ames, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: A raw pitcher with big-time velocity, Ames has a 1.85 ERA (2.67 FIP) in nine starts in short-season ball. The 21-year-old pitcher is ironing out his repertoire in hopes of finding one or two reliable pitches to go with the heat but I’m betting he’s a future reliever at the big league level.
Jose Vinicio, SS, Boston Red Sox: Vinicio just recently turned 19 and has spent much of the year in low-A ball where he’s hit .282 but his wRC+ is just 91 so he’s been a little below-average with his overall offense game, thanks in part to a low walk rate (4.8 BB%) and a high strikeout rate (20.5 K%).
Isaias Tejeda, C, New York: I had to dig deep into the Yankees system to pick a sleeper because so many prospects receive attention. I may have dug a little too deep for Tejeda. The 20-year-old catcher has hit just .136 in short-season ball after posting a .971 OPS in rookie ball in 2011.
The AL Central
Alex Monsalve, C, Cleveland Indians: Monsalve, 20, hasn’t taken the big leap I was hoping for, but he’s gotten better. Moved up to full-season ball in 2012 for the first time in his career, the young catcher has seen his wRC+ increase from 88 to 102 while also displaying more power. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 19.4 to 11.2% and recently received a promotion to high-A ball.
Humberto Arteaga, SS, Kansas City Royals: A Latin gem out of the Royals system, Arteaga made his debut in 2011 at the age of 17. He then moved up from rookie to advanced-rookie ball in 2012 and has been OK, but not great, with the bat. He has a wRC+ of 86 but he’s shown a little pop in his bat and has struck out just 7.4% of the time. Unfortunately, his walk rate sits at 2.3%.
Tyler Collins, OF, Detroit Tigers: With a thin system in terms of impact prospects, Detroit can use all the help it can get and Collins has been a revelation. After a solid debut in 2011, he’s built upon that success with a nice campaign in high-A ball that’s seen him post a 136 wRC+ while hitting just under .300. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but Collins, 22, could develop into a solid No. 4 or platoon outfielder.
Niko Goodrum, SS, Minnesota Twins: Goodrum started out very well in June but came back to earth in July. Overall, he’s hitting .242 but has shown surprising power with 18 extra base hits in 39 games. His 21.5% strikeout rate will be a little more palatable if he keeps showing the power and continuing to display a high walk rate (currently 16%).
Jeff Soptic, RHP, Chicago White Sox: Soptic is your typical White Sox pitching prospect. In other words, he throws hard. The right-hander has struggled in 2012 while battling control issues that have seen him post a walk rate of 5.59 BB/9. When he finds the plate, though, he’s tough to hit (5.90 H/9).
The AL West
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels: After posting a wRC+ of 142 in high-A ball in 2011, Calhoun was skipped over double-A and landed in triple-A to begin this season. He’s hit well in the minors and even received some injury-fill-in time at the big league level. Calhoun looks like a respectable future fourth outfielder at the big league level.
Gregory Paulino, RHP, Oakland Athletics: Paulino’s 4.78 ERA in rookie ball is nothing to write home about but the 19-year-old prospect has a solid FIP at 3.06 and he’s shown good control of the strike zone (2.08 BB/9). He’s also missing quite a few bats (8.72 K/9).
Carter Capps, RHP, Seattle Mariners: Capps, who turned 22 yesterday, blew through the minors in less than two years and reached the majors at the end of July. Prior to his promotion, the hurler struck out 72 batters, with just 12 walks, in 50.0 double-A innings.
Matt West, RHP, Texas Rangers: Converted from third baseman to hard-throwing pitcher in 2011, West injured his elbow at the beginning of ’12 and hasn’t been right since.
The minor league regular season ends in less than a month and the 2013 Top 15 prospect lists are already forming in my mind so I though it would be a good time to reflect back on my collection of sleepers and see how many of them woke up.
The AL East
Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Pompey, 19, was assigned to short-season Vancouver to begin 2012 and was looking good (20.5 BB%, 172 wRC+) before a broken hamate bone in his left wrist wiped out his season after just 11 games.
Zach Davies, RHP, Baltimore Orioles: The 19-year-old hurler received an aggressive assignment to low-A ball in 2012 despite not playing in ’11 after signing his first pro contract. He’s done a solid job in 20 appearances (12 starts), although his strikeout rate (6.63 K/9) could use some helium.
Jeff Ames, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: A raw pitcher with big-time velocity, Ames has a 1.85 ERA (2.67 FIP) in nine starts in short-season ball. The 21-year-old pitcher is ironing out his repertoire in hopes of finding one or two reliable pitches to go with the heat but I’m betting he’s a future reliever at the big league level.
Jose Vinicio, SS, Boston Red Sox: Vinicio just recently turned 19 and has spent much of the year in low-A ball where he’s hit .282 but his wRC+ is just 91 so he’s been a little below-average with his overall offense game, thanks in part to a low walk rate (4.8 BB%) and a high strikeout rate (20.5 K%).
Isaias Tejeda, C, New York: I had to dig deep into the Yankees system to pick a sleeper because so many prospects receive attention. I may have dug a little too deep for Tejeda. The 20-year-old catcher has hit just .136 in short-season ball after posting a .971 OPS in rookie ball in 2011.
The AL Central
Alex Monsalve, C, Cleveland Indians: Monsalve, 20, hasn’t taken the big leap I was hoping for, but he’s gotten better. Moved up to full-season ball in 2012 for the first time in his career, the young catcher has seen his wRC+ increase from 88 to 102 while also displaying more power. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 19.4 to 11.2% and recently received a promotion to high-A ball.
Humberto Arteaga, SS, Kansas City Royals: A Latin gem out of the Royals system, Arteaga made his debut in 2011 at the age of 17. He then moved up from rookie to advanced-rookie ball in 2012 and has been OK, but not great, with the bat. He has a wRC+ of 86 but he’s shown a little pop in his bat and has struck out just 7.4% of the time. Unfortunately, his walk rate sits at 2.3%.
Tyler Collins, OF, Detroit Tigers: With a thin system in terms of impact prospects, Detroit can use all the help it can get and Collins has been a revelation. After a solid debut in 2011, he’s built upon that success with a nice campaign in high-A ball that’s seen him post a 136 wRC+ while hitting just under .300. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but Collins, 22, could develop into a solid No. 4 or platoon outfielder.
Niko Goodrum, SS, Minnesota Twins: Goodrum started out very well in June but came back to earth in July. Overall, he’s hitting .242 but has shown surprising power with 18 extra base hits in 39 games. His 21.5% strikeout rate will be a little more palatable if he keeps showing the power and continuing to display a high walk rate (currently 16%).
Jeff Soptic, RHP, Chicago White Sox: Soptic is your typical White Sox pitching prospect. In other words, he throws hard. The right-hander has struggled in 2012 while battling control issues that have seen him post a walk rate of 5.59 BB/9. When he finds the plate, though, he’s tough to hit (5.90 H/9).
The AL West
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels: After posting a wRC+ of 142 in high-A ball in 2011, Calhoun was skipped over double-A and landed in triple-A to begin this season. He’s hit well in the minors and even received some injury-fill-in time at the big league level. Calhoun looks like a respectable future fourth outfielder at the big league level.
Gregory Paulino, RHP, Oakland Athletics: Paulino’s 4.78 ERA in rookie ball is nothing to write home about but the 19-year-old prospect has a solid FIP at 3.06 and he’s shown good control of the strike zone (2.08 BB/9). He’s also missing quite a few bats (8.72 K/9).
Carter Capps, RHP, Seattle Mariners: Capps, who turned 22 yesterday, blew through the minors in less than two years and reached the majors at the end of July. Prior to his promotion, the hurler struck out 72 batters, with just 12 walks, in 50.0 double-A innings.
Matt West, RHP, Texas Rangers: Converted from third baseman to hard-throwing pitcher in 2011, West injured his elbow at the beginning of ’12 and hasn’t been right since.
Lyle Overbay: Sneaky Stretch Addition?
Lyle Overbay is available. The 35-year-old was designated for assignment July 31 by the Diamondbacks, a move that set him to clear waivers Friday and become a free agent should no team take him off Arizona’s hands.
It’s understandable why the Diamondbacks let Overbay go. He only mustered two hits in his final 25 at-bats for the team as Paul Goldschmidt established himself as the everyday first baseman. No platoon necessary there, and with 40-man roster spots required to make deadline math work out, Overbay was out.
But even with his brutal finish, Overbay hit .292/.367/.449 (112 wRC+) for the Diamondbacks and has a three-year line of .248/.330/.413 (100 wRC+). Average hitters are scarce in August. Can Overbay still impact a playoff race?
Perhaps not in a typical season — it isn’t often we see multiple contenders struggling to adequately man first base. But such has been the case in 2012. The Orioles and Rays, each within 1.5 games of a Wild Card slot, have identical wRC+ marks of 93 from the cold corner. The Pirates check in at 92, but will try Gaby Sanchez instead.
These laggards bring us to two NL West teams, the most fitting suitors for the former Diamondback: the Giants, sitting in 25th at an 88 wRC+, and the Dodgers, last in the majors with a decrepit 68 wRC+. Thank James Loney (.252/.302/.332, 325 PA) and Juan Rivera .250/.286/.357 (.252/.302/.332).
The Giants have at least considered the Overbay option, but the fit only works if Brandon Belt‘s reverse platoon splits are legitimate. He owns a .378 career wOBA against lefties with just a .297 mark against righties. But with just 382 plate appearances against righties and 125 against lefties, chances are things will at least even out.
Without those reverse splits, an Overbay-Belt platoon makes little sense (beyond any development concerns for the young Belt), as Overbay’s usefulness is limited to facing righties. He owns a .347 wOBA in the split since 2009 compared to a .285 mark against lefties. Still, the Giants could use him on the bench — San Francisco pinch hitters have managed just a .160/.234/.244 line this season. Overbay would be a marked improvement over Aubrey Huff (49 wRC+).
And so we have the Dodgers. New ownership at Chavez Ravine has made the big moves, bringing in expensive players in Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton. The club still faces a grind to the playoffs though, 1.5 games behind San Francisco in the NL West. First base is the major need, and Overbay’s preference to hit right-handers works fine for the Dodgers. Their static duo has been even worse against right-handers, with a .273 wOBA trailing the 29th-best Mariners by 12 points.
The Dodgers have toyed with post-July additions in the past — Greg Maddux and Jim Thome, just as examples. Rarely do we see a team so lacking in one spot get the chance to patch it after the deadline. Los Angeles just might have that chance with Overbay, a chance well worth dipping into the August transaction market again.
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It’s understandable why the Diamondbacks let Overbay go. He only mustered two hits in his final 25 at-bats for the team as Paul Goldschmidt established himself as the everyday first baseman. No platoon necessary there, and with 40-man roster spots required to make deadline math work out, Overbay was out.
But even with his brutal finish, Overbay hit .292/.367/.449 (112 wRC+) for the Diamondbacks and has a three-year line of .248/.330/.413 (100 wRC+). Average hitters are scarce in August. Can Overbay still impact a playoff race?
Perhaps not in a typical season — it isn’t often we see multiple contenders struggling to adequately man first base. But such has been the case in 2012. The Orioles and Rays, each within 1.5 games of a Wild Card slot, have identical wRC+ marks of 93 from the cold corner. The Pirates check in at 92, but will try Gaby Sanchez instead.
These laggards bring us to two NL West teams, the most fitting suitors for the former Diamondback: the Giants, sitting in 25th at an 88 wRC+, and the Dodgers, last in the majors with a decrepit 68 wRC+. Thank James Loney (.252/.302/.332, 325 PA) and Juan Rivera .250/.286/.357 (.252/.302/.332).
The Giants have at least considered the Overbay option, but the fit only works if Brandon Belt‘s reverse platoon splits are legitimate. He owns a .378 career wOBA against lefties with just a .297 mark against righties. But with just 382 plate appearances against righties and 125 against lefties, chances are things will at least even out.
Without those reverse splits, an Overbay-Belt platoon makes little sense (beyond any development concerns for the young Belt), as Overbay’s usefulness is limited to facing righties. He owns a .347 wOBA in the split since 2009 compared to a .285 mark against lefties. Still, the Giants could use him on the bench — San Francisco pinch hitters have managed just a .160/.234/.244 line this season. Overbay would be a marked improvement over Aubrey Huff (49 wRC+).
And so we have the Dodgers. New ownership at Chavez Ravine has made the big moves, bringing in expensive players in Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton. The club still faces a grind to the playoffs though, 1.5 games behind San Francisco in the NL West. First base is the major need, and Overbay’s preference to hit right-handers works fine for the Dodgers. Their static duo has been even worse against right-handers, with a .273 wOBA trailing the 29th-best Mariners by 12 points.
The Dodgers have toyed with post-July additions in the past — Greg Maddux and Jim Thome, just as examples. Rarely do we see a team so lacking in one spot get the chance to patch it after the deadline. Los Angeles just might have that chance with Overbay, a chance well worth dipping into the August transaction market again.
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, 1 RBI
avid Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
hiladelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, Michael Bourn
