2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[naija nitemare]

The Angels deserve to be looking up at everyone in the standings.

******g pathetic performances day in and day out.

Ever since Vernon Wells came back it's been down-the-****-hill.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I wouldn't say it's as simple as that. Minor improvement, fluky BABIP, increased power probably all factor in. As a former HS pitcher who couldn't hit a lick, I'd say even a very slight increase in pop can make a difference in production. I don't think it's a magic pill at all, but to suggest PEDs have a negligible effect on someone's ability to hit a baseball is somewhat naive. And he only got caught for Testoserone, but whose to say he and others aren't still on some yet undiscovered designer products?

His power hasn't really increased that much, his put up hr/fb rates like this in New York.

All I'm saying is the idea that we have very concrete understanding on how steroids effect your ability to hit a baseball is simply false.

Marlon Byrd is a decent player, takes steroids and is now out of baseball.


IMO, I believe that steroids can help a specific type of hitter, with a specific type of body, and a specific type of swing but the vast majority of players I believe will really get negligible benefits.

Even then Mark Mcguire, Jose Conceco, guys who's body types and swings are maybe more prone to receive benefits from steroids (imo) I mean those dudes are power hitters, giant dudes, I feel like they would have hit for power no matter what.

point is, its not that simple.

 

[RyGuy45]

Bottom line is we all want to think we know what PEDs are doing for players but until we have a massive study on it with guinea pigs we will likely never know exactly. We know players are still tapping into them though and we know trainers and doctors and the underground are still well ahead of MLB tests.

It's the dog days of summer now where players bodies are starting to show the effects of going for almost 6 months straight of being on a field.

I would bet Conte's numbers are probably off though because even he is just throwing out numbers and he isn't overseeing 30 MLB clubhouses or following all players home.

 

[651akathepaul]

Exactly. You guys should do your research on him. Works closely with WADA now as well.

I just don't believe that a lot of the "top players in the league" would entrust telling information like this to a guy like Conte. And 50%??? BS. What he's doing is just trying to show he's less relevant to distance himself from the blame, since his name has been smeared. Like he's saying "See...Everyone is doing it regardless of me." That's the sense I get.

 

[proshares]

MLB To Test Expanded Replay Next Week.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Huzzah.

Major League Baseball owners have agreed to test two different advanced replay systems live during games starting next week, and if they prove accurate they could precede an overhaul of the system for the 2013 season, sources told Yahoo! Sports.

MLB will analyze a radar-based system and a camera-based system, both similar to the one used in tennis for down-the-line fair-or-foul calls. Yankee Stadium and Citi Field will be the guinea-pig parks for the systems, which have been installed recently.

The use of the systems will be strictly in the background and for analysis. Because the number of questionable plays during games is likely to be limited, MLB plans to do extra testing on non-game days. Before implementing the technology in its 30 ballparks, the league wants to ensure its accuracy is up to standard.

As Jeff Passan notes in the article, this is essentially an accuracy gauge test, and the system has to show MLB officials that it can provide a definitive improvement on things like fair/foul calls. The fact that they’re testing it does not mean that they’re going to decide to use it, or that it could be implemented quickly, or that Bud Selig is aware that a lot of fans of his sport are in favor of expanded replay.

However, trying it out is better than continuing to proclaim that there aren’t enough people writing letters decrying the lack of technology used to help umpires get as many calls correct as possible. At least this gives us some hope that the test may go well, that MLB officials may see the value in expanded replay, and that we may be headed towards a day when the officials on the field have access to the same (or better!) information that everyone watching on TV has.

It’s a small step, but it’s a step in the right direction.


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Eric Chavez Reborn in New York.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

There was a time when Eric Chavez was on a hall-of-fame-level career path. Through 2006 — his age-28 season and his eighth full major league campaign — Chavez had a .271/.350/.489 batting line, 212 home runs and six well-deserved (at least most of them) Gold Gloves. Basically, if you think Scott Rolen should be a hall-of-famer, you can see Chavez traveling the same path — especially considering the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum:


Source: FanGraphs — Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen

This year, Chavez is putting up a .303/.362/.547 (139 wRC+) season in 224 plate appearances with the Yankees. He’s been a more-than-able replacement for Alex Rodriguez, and he’s been a surprisingly big reason why the Yankees have been able to pull away from the pack in the AL East.


Chavez’s 139 wRC+ is the best season of his career; he ranged from 123 to 133 in his four-year peak from 2001 to 2004. Chavez is hitting for as much power as ever (.244 ISO, second to a .252 mark in 2001) and he’s striking out just 15.6% of the time.

Part of the reason behind his success is way the Yankees have been able to leverage his skills. Chavez has taken 199 of his 224 plate appearances against right-handers, which helps him take advantage of his large career splits: .364 wOBA in 2590 appearances against righties, as opposed to just a .308 wOBA in 1,099 plate appearances against southpaws. Chavez’s line becomes even more impressive without the 22 plate appearance against lefties — they’ve held him to just a .143/.167/.143 mark, leaving a .324/.387/.598 mark against righties.

Although one would expect the new Yankee Stadium to be boost his comeback efforts, that hasn’t been the driving force. Six of Chavez’s 13 home runs have come on the road, and seven of the 13 have gone to either center or left. Indeed, he has a spray chart that leans pull — though it’s certainly not dead pull. As you can see, he’ll attack left field, too:



The laundry list of injuries — strained forearms, herniated disks, something called “spinal fusion surgery” and the list goes on — combined with his revived production at age 34, makes me wonder what could have been. Could he have been another Rolen? Perhaps an Adrian Beltre? He had that combination of glove and power that is so rare at third base.

For one last comparison, consider the following:


Source: FanGraphs — Eric Chavez, Evan Longoria

Of course, we’re comparing very different eras, but in many ways Longoria and Chavez share the same skillset. Perhaps, if Longoria can stay healthy, we can see an answer to the Chavez’s “what if?” scenario even as the 34-year-old revives his career in the Bronx.


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Chipper’s Going Out (Nearly) On Top.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Chipper Jones announced in March that he would retire at the season’s end. He cited various reasons for ending his hall-of-fame career and admitted that he was tired of living the baseball lifestyle. Always one to answer questions honestly in an era of generalities, he said that his decision was firm; no matter what, he was done once the Braves’ season ended.

As expected, his steadfastness to that decision has been tested, and reporters frequently ask whether he’s changed his mind. Maybe there’s a point to those questions. After all, Jones has a .379 wOBA and 2.9 WAR right now. And he’s on pace for his best season in four years. He projects to finish the season with a .372 wOBA and 4 WAR, and players don’t generally retire after posting numbers like that.

So where does his final season rank among career-concluding seasons throughout history. Is he truly going out on top?

To that end, I pooled all final seasons from 1920 through last year and sorted by both wOBA and WAR. Both rankings are interesting in Chipper’s case, because he rates positively in the field this season, which also tends to go against the grain of why players retire in the first place. His batting line might not be the greatest among future retirees, but the value he derived elsewhere certainly helps his case.

There’s an obvious selection bias inherent here, in that players who produce this well tend to continue playing. If playing at this level indicates an ability for future success; and future success means keeping a lucrative salary, then you can see why it might be tough to walk away from the game. Generally speaking, players retire because their skills have declined — through aging, injuries, or both. Every now and then a player is essentially forced into retirement. Barry Bonds fits that case. Kenny Lofton comes to mind, as well, since he was a player who could contribute to a team but couldn’t find a contract that he liked. Joe Jackson was banned after the 1920 season, when he was 30 years old, and he was still incredibly productive. But, for the most part, these examples are the exception.

So where does Jones’s 2012 rank? Using a 400 PA cutoff among players whose careers ended between 1920 and 2011, here are the top 10 wOBAs:

Name YR PA wOBA
Joe Jackson 1920 649 0.473
Barry Bonds 2007 477 0.429
Happy Felsch 1920 613 0.421
Buzz Arlett 1931 469 0.417
Will Clark 2000 507 0.414
Hank Greenberg 1947 510 0.412
Dave Nilsson 1999 404 0.403
Roy Cullenbine 1947 607 0.390
Curt Walker 1930 547 0.385
Bobby Doerr 1951 463 0.382

If he finished the season with his current .379 wOBA, Jones would rank 14th — right ahead of Kirby Puckett, whose retirement was caused by a sudden case of glaucoma. Bonds and Jackson were special cases, but other interesting names are Clark, Nilsson and Arlett.

Clark struggled with injuries near the end of his career, but from 1997 to 2000, his age-33-through-age-36 seasons, he posted wOBAs of .385, .385, .381 and .415. He also became one of very few players to hit .300/.400/.500 as a 35-plus-year-old player when he hit .319/.418/.546 in his final season. In fact, Clark’s retirement was viewed similarly as Jones’s: He made his decision to retire after the 2000 season and he was pestered about returning after he produced well. Nilsson retired for personal reasons but managed a .309/.400/.554 line with a career-best 21 home runs as a 29-year-old in his final season. Not only was it one of the best final seasons in history, it was his best season.

Arlett is noteworthy because he played just one major league season. When he retired, he was the all-time minor league leader in homers and runs batted in. He now ranks second in both categories.

Other interesting names that pop up are Darren Daulton (No. 24) and Ray Durham (No. 33). Daulton hit .263/.378/.463 with the Phillies and the Marlins in 1997, won a World Series and hung up his cleats. Durham hit .289/.380/.432 as a 36-year-old for the Giants and the Brewers in 2008, but he wasn’t offered anything other than minor league deals with Spring Training invitations the next season.

When the players are sorted by overall WAR, the list changes quite a bit. Jones would fare much more favorably if he were to finish with 4 WAR, as ZIPS projects. In fact, at 4 WAR, Jones would finish his career with the eighth-highest tally for a final season, behind these players:

Name YR PA ValueW
Joe Jackson 1920 649 8.8
Happy Felsch 1920 613 6.5
Ray Chapman 1920 530 4.9
Roy Cullenbine 1947 607 4.7
Roberto Clemente 1972 413 4.6
Buck Weaver 1920 690 4.6
Jackie Robinson 1956 431 4.5

Barring a terrific surge upon returning to the lineup, it’s unlikely that Jones will finish much higher than 10th on either the wOBA or WAR leaderboards. He won’t finish his career with the best final season in history, but there’s nothing wrong with finishing among the best. Players don’t usually retire of their own accord after producing like this, but Jones has always been an odd duck of sorts. Perhaps it’s poetic that he will end his career with a season that leaves people guessing just how much he still had in the tank.


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Is 50 Games Too Weak a PED Punishment?

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

As you know by now, Melky Cabrera failed a drug test and was suspended for 50 games yesterday for using synthetic testosterone during the best season of his career. Cabrera will miss the rest of the Giants’ regular season, but he’s already been worth 4.5 WAR to the Giants, and some people within the game are grumbling that a mere 50 game suspension isn’t enough of a deterrent to prevent ballplayers from taking performance-enhancing drugs. If it isn’t an effective deterrent, is it an adequate punishment?

Kirk Gibson, the manager of the Diamondbacks, was outspoken yesterday. “Obviously, there’s not a big enough deterrent if it continues,” he told the Arizona Republic. “I think it should be a minimum of a year (for a first positive) and after that it should just be banned.” So what kind of suspension would adequately deter players from using banned drugs?

It’s very likely that almost no number of games could compete with the $60 to $70 million that he may have cost himself in the offseason free agent market, as Dave Cameron writes. Nothing incents like dollars and cents, to coin a phrase. For a walk year player in Cabrera’s position, where cheating could literally earn him the better part of a hundred million bucks, it’s easy to imagine that even a one-year punishment wouldn’t be high enough, especially with disgraced BALCO founder Victor Conte claiming that “To circumvent the test is like taking candy from a baby.”

The effectiveness of the deterrent will depend on the player’s own expected value, how much they have to gain against how much they have to lose. A player like Cabrera, in a walk year, on a team in a dogfight for the division, could hardly have any more to gain. A player like Manny Ramirez, on his last legs, trying to prove that he still deserves one of 25 roster spots, could hardly have less to lose. Players like them would have the greatest incentive to cheat. And I doubt that either a 15-game suspension or a 150-game suspension would much affect their calculus, considering that the first stands to make seven years of guaranteed salary and the second is on the verge of retirement anyway.

The third type of player with an elevated likelihood of cheating would be a minor leaguer who is trying to stick in the majors. The major league minimum is an order of magnitude greater than the minor league minimum, and drug testing is more stringent in the minor leagues, where players are not covered by the MLBPA. A player who arrived in the major leagues and wanted to stick there would similarly have an elevated incentive to use. A player like Alex Sanchez, for example. But they have much more to lose, because a positive test could just about end their career.

(I’ve always thought it strange that the suspension for steroids is not much higher than the 60-day suspension that Otis Nixon received for testing positive for cocaine in 1991. Of course, that occurred in the context of Len Bias legislation and the recent memory of cocaine destroying baseball in Pittsburgh for most of the decade. It was a special circumstance.)

The more difficult question is how to deal with the aftermath. Obviously, the Giants won’t be vacating the victories they won with Melky Cabrera, and Gibson’s grievance is understandable, considering that Cabrera OPS’ed 1.167 in nine games against the D-Backs. If the D-Backs miss the playoffs by fewer than the four games that they lost to the Giants, Melky’s malfeasance may be recalled. Moreover, the winner of the ALCS may grumble that the National League gained home field advantage in the World Series thanks primarily to All-Star MVP Melky Cabrera’s chemically-aided heroics.

Worse, if Cabrera had waited until the end of the year to get caught, he might have won an MVP award. And, as we learned last year amid the saga of Ryan Braun‘s failed test and successful appeal, those are permanent, too, which means that whoever finished in second place to Cabrera would have a legitimate beef as well: people who win MVP awards are worth more money on the open market, and MVP awards add to a player’s historical legacy as well, so they can build momentum for a Hall of Fame case.

Take, for example, Vladimir Guerrero, who’s more or less borderline, with 60 fWAR in his 16 years. He won a single MVP award in 2004, so his case would be greatly strengthened if he had one or two more. He finished fourth in 2002, when Barry Bonds won; third in 2005, when Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz finished first and second; and third again in 2007, when Alex Rodriguez won.

I have no way of asserting beyond a shadow of a doubt that Guerrero is more clean than Rodriguez, Bonds, and Ortiz. But if Guerrero won a retroactive MVP or two — like the New Zealand shot-putter who won gold a couple of days ago after the Olympics ended, when the Belarusian winner tested positive for steroids — that would make him a near-certainty for the Hall, rather than a player who will struggle to stand out against many other talented peers from the Steroid Era.

(As it happens, there’s a very good chance that Melky Cabrera will deprive Andrew McCutchen or Buster Posey of the 2012 batting title. But it also bears mentioning, as Jonah Keri writes, that it’s unclear just how much of Cabrera’s 2011-2012 spike is attributable to PED usage, as opposed to BABIP variance and so forth.)

Gibson is almost certainly right that a yearlong suspension would be an increased deterrent, and it might lessen steroid use on the margins. It would also raise the stakes if there ever were to be a false positive with the test, which Major League Baseball has long denied, but Ryan Braun’s successful appeal was predicated on just that notion. And that is why the players’ union is unlikely to sign off on any increase in suspension time.

The union is also unlikely to sign off on any increased scrutiny of players in contract years or at the beginning or end of their careers, even if they are likely to be at elevated risk for PED use. The court of public opinion will have no such scruples, however, and the suspicion of chemical enhancement that greets every great performance in a walk year, from Adrian Beltre to Gary Matthews Jr., will continue unabated. So Melky will likely need to accept a one-year contract for next year, and hope that he can kill it — like Beltre in 2010 with the Red Sox, for example — to set himself up for a major payday in 2013.

That won’t help the Giants, of course, and the damage has already been done to the Diamondbacks, not to mention home field in the World Series. The 50 game suspension hurts the Giants a lot more than it hurts Cabrera, who already did irreparable damage to his free agent value and historical legacy. If teams can pressure their players not to use, because of the damage that their absence could do to the team, then the 50 game suspension would truly be an effective deterrent. If not, then it will always pale in comparison to the money.


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Dan Duquette Doesn’t Like Cutters.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

“Why don’t you take a look at the chart with the average against cutters in the big leagues, batting average against and then come back and tell me that that’s a great pitch,” Duquette said.

In an interview with Steve Melewski that is destined to provide content for weeks, Dan Duquette outlined the Orioles’ philosophy when it comes to the cut fastball. In essence, the pitch won’t be taught in their minor league organization. “We don’t like it as a pitch,” the Baltimore GM said.

The interview was full of controversial statements. For one, Duquette asked incredulously if any good pitcher has dominated in the big leagues using a cutter. He dismissed Mariano Rivera — “that’s a fastball” — so we may have a problem of definition. By the BIS pitch type percentage leaderboards housed here, there are plenty of excellent pitchers that have used the cutter: Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, James Shields, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, David Price, Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright all show up on the first page, meaning they use the pitch often. Some dude named Roy Halladay throws the cutter almost a quarter of the time according to PITCHf/x. Unless he’s going to dismiss all of these as fastballs — in which case we’d have to ask what a cutter actually is — that statement seems demonstrably wrong.

His assertion that the batting average allowed on the cutter means it’s a bad pitch, that one should be easy enough to unpack. First of all, here are the numbers for batting average and slugging percentage on balls after contact for each pitch type so far this year. (Using this year alone helps us avoid any change in pitch-type classification systems.)


BACON SLGCON
4-Seam 0.328 0.542
2-Seam 0.324 0.496
Cutter 0.313 0.493
Slider 0.311 0.499
Changeup 0.303 0.493
Curveball 0.316 0.491

The batting average on balls after contact for the cutter seem in line with the slider and curveball, while the two-seam and four-seam fastball allow more successful outcomes for the batter. There’s little difference in the non-four-seam slugging percentages. Since the cutter and the breaking pitches all get more ground balls than the four-seamer, that’s not surprising. If Duquette’s chart includes swinging strikes, he may have lower batting averages for the breaking pitches than the cutter — according to Harry Pavlidis’ excellent pitch-type benchmarks, the cut fastball has a worse whiff rate than any pitch listed here except the four-seamer.

But that’s not the point of the pitch. Look at the cut fastball, and you realize that it’s a pitch that’s used like a fastball but has a little different movement and gets a few more ground balls. The balls-to-called strikes ratio on the cut fastball is better than the one you’ll find on breaking pitches, and the ground-ball rate is better than the four-seamer. It’s a tweener. If used properly, it’s useful, and batting average has little to say about it.

Another assertion of his might be the ‘real’ reason that the Orioles are declining to teach to the pitch in the minor leagues. Duquette states that developing the cutter takes away from time spent developing better pitches, but also that throwing the cutter leads to lowered arm strength and less fastball velocity. In an excellent article on Baseball America ($), Ben Badler did find many scouts that agreed with this sentiment. Most agreed with a caveat: if it’s thrown correctly (and has about the same velocity as his four-seam fastball), they think it’s a fine pitch that can help a pitcher iron out platoon issues by giving them a pitch with movement to the glove side. Others are more pessimistic and think it’s “hard on the arm” like the last pitch-du-jour, the split-finger fastball. Testing these ideas is as difficult as classifying the cutter.

No matter what, Badler found that most agree that there isn’t a team that teaches the cutter on an organization-wide basis. Sure, you have pitching coaches — like Don Cooper and Dave Duncan, perhaps — that teach the pitch in the big leagues, and help revive careers for veterans that have had trouble learning a better changeup or curveball. But it doesn’t seem like there are many, if any, teams that teach the cutter in the minors. So maybe this is all a brouhaha about nothing.

Except that the Orioles have a prospect named Dylan Bundy who throws his fastball in the upper nineties and thrived with a cut fastball as part of his arsenal in high school. The Orioles’ forbidding him from throwing the pitch may be taking this philosophy too far. After all, each pitcher is different, and if Bundy wasn’t having trouble with arm strength and used a fine-looking cutter, telling him to stop using it seems to be folly.

In the end, Duquette’s is a defensible stance, and one that is in the majority when it comes to minor league development. But maybe the Orioles’ GM said a few strange things and used some interesting evidence to back up his beliefs.

Giants Must Get Creative In Replacing Melky Cabrera.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Major League Baseball suspended Melky Cabrera for 50 games after he tested positive for testosterone, a substance banned under the league’s Joint Drug Policy. The suspension is immediate, meaning Cabrera won’t be seen in the orange and black, patrolling left field and accumulating hits, for the rest of the season. After their loss yesterday to the Nationals, coupled with the Dodgers win over the Pirates, the Giants fell out of first place in the National League West for the first time since late June. Losing Cabrera will hurt the Giants as they battle the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks for the division title, and try to stay in the hunt for a wild card spot.

Cabrera’s has been the Giants’ second-most productive hitter, behind Buster Posey. His season line is .346/.390/.546 for a .387 wOBA and a 146 wRC+. He was a steady and effective presence as the number three hitter in the Giants’ lineup, where he whacked 25 doubles, ten triples and eleven home runs in front of Posey. It will be impossible to replicate that production. The question is how best to replace it.


News reports suggest utility outfielder Gregor Blanco will get the bulk of the playing time in Cabrera’s absence. Blanco played his way into a regular right field job early this season when he batted .315/.427/.457 with a .391 wOBA and 149 wRC+ in May. But those numbers are a distant memory now. In 91 plate appearances in July and August, Blanco has 14 hits and 16 strikeouts. His walk rate remains high, above 14%, after plummeting in June.

The Giants will add two players to the roster before tomorrow’s game against the Padres. My best guess is that they’ll call up Brett Pill and Justin Christian, both right-handed batters, with an eye on a platoon with Blanco, who hits lefty. Christian’s been up and down from Triple-A several times this season, and shown very limited ability to hit major league pitching. In 41 plate appearances, he’s batted .158/.220/.184. His career numbers against lefties show some promise, but he’s had no success at all against southpaws this season. Pill made the Giants’ Opening Day roster and was used in a platoon with Brandon Belt at first base in the first half of the season. But even with Belt’s struggles, Pill did not seize the moment and was eventually sent back to Fresno. In 106 plate appearances, he batted .222/.274/.374 with four home runs. A better option than Christian at the plate, for sure. The only problem is that Pill has played only 47 innings in left field in the majors, all coming this season. An outfield of Pill in left, Angel Pagan in center, and Hunter Pence in right has the capacity to cause serious mayhem for Giants pitchers, particularly those induce a lot of fly balls, like Matt Cain.

The possibility of a Blanco/Pill or Blanco/Christian platoon doesn’t inspire confidence, so let’s think outside the box for a second. The Giants could use Pablo Sandoval at first base and move Brandon Belt to left field. Don’t jump right to the comments to blast me; hear me out.

Marco Scutaro, acquired before the trade deadline, filled in admirably at third base with Sandoval on the disabled list with a hamstring strain. On defense, it’s probably a wash between Sandoval and Scutaro at third, particularly with Joaquin Arias as a late-inning defensive replacement. Scutaro’s batting .320/.361/.427 in 83 plate appearances with the Giants, better than anything Blanco, Pill or Christian has or likely will produce. Even with all his injuries this season, Sandoval is batting .299/.353/.489 with a .356 wOBA and a 125 wRC+. In his career, Sandoval’s played almost 475 innings at first base, mostly in 2008 and 2009, and while he’s nowhere near as good at first as he is at third — or as Brandon Belt is at first — shifting Pablo to first could free up Belt to play left field.

Even with an up-and-down year at the plate, Belt has pulled it together in August and is now up to .267/.362/.405 with a .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ for the season. He’s credited with 2 defensive runs saved and a 4.7 UZR/150 at first base. We can take those numbers with grain of salt, given the state of defensive metrics, but having watched nearly every inning of every Giants game, I can safely say that Belt is a very solid defensive first baseman.

Belt played a bit more than 240 innings in the outfield last season, and didn’t fare nearly as well by defensive metrics or the eye test. But he’s agile and fairly quick on his feet. With an additional year of major league playing time, it’s not ridiculous to think that Belt could play a reasonably steady left field for the Giants.

When rosters expand on September 1, the Giants could promote outfielders Francisco Peguero from Triple-A and/or Gary Brown from Double-A. Brown is one of the Giants’ most highly-rated prospects and fans have been clamoring for his arrival in San Francisco, even before Cabrera’s suspension. Brown started off slowly this season in Richmond, but has upped his numbers to .280/.346/.395 for the year. He might be a nice fill-in defensively down the stretch, but he’s unlikely to make much of an impact at the plate in a pennant race. Peguero’s had a full year at Triple-A and is batting .273/.297/.403, which reveals an abysmal on-base rate and low power numbers in the otherwise high-octane Pacific Coast League that both Christian and Pill have dominated. So Peguero is an unlikely solution.

And then there are trade options. The name that’s already surfaced is Alfonso Soriano. He cleared waivers but has 10-5 rights and has stated publicly he doesn’t like the weather in San Francisco and wouldn’t approve a trade to the Giants. It’s also unlikely the Giants would agree to pay for much of Soriano’s remaining $40 million in salary.

Other outfielders on teams out of contention, or soon to be out of contention, who could be possible fits in San Francisco include Denard Span of the Twins, Cody Ross of the Red Sox (and, of course, Giants 2010 postseason hero), Scott Hairston of the Mets, and Juan Pierre of the Phillies. It’s unclear (to me) if any of these players passed through waivers, making them available as trade pieces between now and August 31. All would be upgrades over Blanco/Christian/Pill. The question, of course, is whether any are available and if so, at what price?

Losing Cabrera puts the Giants in a tough spot just as their offense was kicking into high gear. In the last 14 days, the Giants lead the majors with 4.7 WAR and are third with a 122 wRC+. Much of that is due to Posey’s second half surge, Belt’s hot streak, and Scutaro’s arrival. But Cabrera played a big part of that, too, as he has in the Giants’ offense all season. The Giants need to think creatively how best to use their available players to fill in the gap. Or they can try acquire a player from a non-contending team. Or both. But the Giants must act quickly because time is ticking on the 2012 season.


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Which Recent Perfect Game Was The Hardest?

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Yesterday, Felix Hernandez went 27-up, 27-down against Tampa Bay, becoming just the 23rd pitcher in baseball history to throw a perfect game. Amazingly, this was the sixth perfect game in the last four years, as Felix joins the company of Mark Buehrle, Dallas Braden, Roy Halladay, Philip Humber, and Matt Cain as the newest members of the club.

Back when Cain threw his perfect game in June — striking out 14 games in the process — I looked at where that game ranked in history, and noted that it was in the conversation with Kerry Wood‘s 20 strikeout performance and no-hitters from Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax as one of the best games in history. While Game Score does a pretty good job of scaling relative performances, however, it doesn’t evaluate for context — park, league, opponent, etc… So, that’s what I set out to do today.

It’s simply more work than I have time for to go through every perfect game in history to evaluate the quality of the opponent, the park the game was played in, and the run environment of the day, but with the help of Jeff Zimmerman, I was able to look at the most recent six. Thanks to the fantastic custom leaderboard feature here on FanGraphs, it is not that difficult to compile the statistics of a specific group of players, like for instance the batters who were matched up against a guy who threw a perfect game. From there, we can look at the relative strength of the batters that each pitcher had to face.

For the recent six, here are the opponents they faced on their road to perfection – you can click through the links to see the custom leaderboards with each player’s performance from that year.

7/23/09: Buehrle vs 2009 Rays.

Buehrle got the Rays at home on a Thursday afternoon getaway game, but Tampa Bay still ran out most of their regulars, just subbing in the backup catcher in a day-game-after-night situation. This was a good year for Tampa’s offense too, as the nine guys in the line-up that day combined to hit .270/.356/.465 in 2009, good for a .359 wOBA. Each member of the Crawford/Zobrist/Pena/Longoria/Bartlett group posted a wOBA over .367 that year, and Crawford was the only one who wasn’t particularly good agains left-handed pitchers. Making up Crawford’s weakness against LHBs was the presence of Gabe Kapler, who posted a .394 wOBA against LHPs that year. This was simply a staggeringly good line-up to get completely shut down.

5/9/10: Braden vs 2010 Rays.

Hey, look, it’s mostly the same group of guys that Buehrle faced. Michael Hernandez got swapped out for Dioner Navarro behind the plate and Willy Aybar was DH’ing instead of Pat Burrell, but those guys were just as ineffective as the previous incarnation. This group was a bit worse, though, as Bartlett went from having an insane year back to being a weak-bat shortstop, and Zobrist’s offense regressed a lot in 2010. This group of nine combined for a .333 wOBA in 2010, so while they were still above average offensively, they weren’t hitting like they did the year before, especially against left-handers. Also worth noting – this was a Saturday afternoon game, so again, day-game-after-night situation.

5/29/10: Halladay vs 2010 Marlins.

The Marlins threw 12 different batters at Halladay, pinch-hitting for the entire bottom third of their order in the bottom of the 9th inning. So, here, it’s not quite as simple as averaging out the entire season lines for the starting nine, since there weren’t equal opportunity, but we can still evaluate the strength of that Marlins offense without too much trouble. And, to be frank, it wasn’t great. Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez were having strong seasons, but both were also right-handed batters, which meant that Halladay had the platoon advantage against them. Every other batter Halladay faced that day was a below average hitter vs RHPs, ranging from okay bats like Gaby Sanchez and Chris Coghlan to automatic outs like Josh Johnson and Mike Lamb. As a group, Halladay’s opponents posted a .312 wOBA against right-handers in 2010, and while weighting the line by number of at-bats given to each player shifts that up a bit, this was still a below average offense that Halladay was facing. Unlike the two against Tampa Bay before him, though, this was a night game.

4/21/12: Humber vs 2012 Mariners.

If you were to pick a team that you’d expect to get perfecto’d over the last few years, it’d probably be the Mariners. Their offense is better this year than it was the last two, but it’s still pretty bad, with John Jaso representing the team’s only above average hitter this season, and he didn’t even start against Humber. Another afternoon game, the Mariners were also using backup shortstop — and completely useless hitter — Munenori Kawasaki at shortstop, and this was the part of the season where they were still trying to extract value from Chone Figgins, so he was hitting leadoff and playing left field. The whole group of hitters Humber faced have combined for a .286 wOBA this year, and that doesn’t improve at all against right-handers. Of the guys who started for the Mariners that day, Kyle Seager‘s .321 wOBA vs RHPs was the best in the line-up, and Ichiro Suzuki was the only other batter in the line-up to clear the .300 mark. This line-up deserved what they got.

6/13/12: Cain vs 2012 Astros.

It’s easy to dismiss Cain’s performance since it came against the Astros, who are clearly baseball’s worst team this season, but that’s not totally fair to his accomplishment. They did run out a couple of solid hitters that night, including Jed Lowrie and Jose Altuve, and the overall group of batters Cain faced have posted a .310 wOBA this year. That’s not great, but they weren’t all automatic outs either, and they actually did slightly better than that against right-handed pitching this season. It was also a night game, so Cain wasn’t facing too many back-ups — beyond the joke about everyone on Houston being a back-up on a good club, anyway — and J.A. Happ‘s terrible performance meant he only got to hit once. So, while the quality of opponent here wasn’t great, this wasn’t the total cakewalk you might think when you heard someone beat up on the 2012 Astros.

8/15/12: Hernandez vs 2012 Rays.

Hey, it’s the Rays again. They show up here for the third time, but this is a pretty different group than the first two. Upton, Zobrist, and Longoria are still around, as is the ghost of Carlos Pena, but everything else has been turned over. It was another day-game-after-night situation, so Felix got to face the likes of Sam Fuld and Elliot Johnson, but Joyce and Longoria were still in the line-up and Jeff Keppinger and Desmond Jennings both pinch-hit in the ninth inning, so this wasn’t a total scrub best. Still, the group’s .319 wOBA is inflated a bit by the single plate appearances from Keppinger and Jennings, so the first two times through the order, the Rays offense was a bit worse than that number would suggest. As a righty getting to roll through the Lobaton/Johnson/Rodriguez/Fuld quartet, nearly half of the line-up the Rays rolled out there didn’t present much of a challenge.

So, just adjusting for quality of competition, Buehrle seems to stand out as the most impressive perfect game of the bunch. He faced a legitimately good offense at full strength with no platoon issues against left-handed pitchers. In fact, if we adjust for ballpark effects, Buehrle again comes out on top, as he threw his in the hitter’s haven of US Celluar Field, while every other perfect game in the last four years has been thrown in a pretty extreme pitcher’s park.

The hardest opponent and hardest environment awards go to Buehrle, with Braden probably coming in second, and then Halladay/Felix/Cain all facing similar-ish challenges in terms of park and quality of batters faced. Humber clearly had the easiest path to perfection, facing a brutally awful line-up in a park that is just destroying offense this year, primarily by suppressing hits on balls in play.

Of course, Felix, Cain, and Halladay all racked up double digit strikeouts, doing more of the work themselves and relying less on balls getting hit right at their defenders, and going by sheer dominance, they’re the ones throwing unhittable pitches. Buehrle got 21 outs on balls in play using his 85 mph fastball and diving change-up, which just doesn’t look as overpowering as the breaking balls that Felix was busting off yesterday. But, when you consider who he was pitching against, and where he was pitching, Buehrle’s perfect game is probably the most impressive of the whole bunch.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[abovelegit1]

His power hasn't really increased that much, his put up hr/fb rates like this in New York.
All I'm saying is the idea that we have very concrete understanding on how steroids effect your ability to hit a baseball is simply false.
Marlon Byrd is a decent player, takes steroids and is now out of baseball.
IMO, I believe that steroids can help a specific type of hitter, with a specific type of body, and a specific type of swing but the vast majority of players I believe will really get negligible benefits.
Even then Mark Mcguire, Jose Conceco, guys who's body types and swings are maybe more prone to receive benefits from steroids (imo) I mean those dudes are power hitters, giant dudes, I feel like they would have hit for power no matter what.
point is, its not that simple.

Don't really understand your reasoning. All hitters utlize strength and power - whether you're a pull hitter, contact hitter, line-drive hitter, power hitter, etc. If you're increasing your strength then the same technique/effort it takes to swing a bat will yield more power behind that swing as opposed to just utilizing innate strength/power. Obviously hitting is more complicated than that and involves many moving parts, but if your core, legs, shoulders, and arms are all artificially stronger, than your ability to generate torque and hit a baseball will be affected. Soft hit ground balls may become hard hit ground balls that escape the infield. Singles may get to the wall. Doubles may become homeruns, and so on.

And of course there is no concrete understanding of PED causation. You can't (ethically) design a controlled study that would yield pertinent results. Unless of course, MLB caliber hitters are willing to be guinea pigs, as RyGuy touched on.

Obviously this is an old debate, and everyone has an opinion, but I don't think the effect of PEDs can be seen as negligible - regardless of the type of hitter.

 

[proshares]

I just don't believe that a lot of the "top players in the league" would entrust telling information like this to a guy like Conte. And 50%??? BS. What he's doing is just trying to show he's less relevant to distance himself from the blame, since his name has been smeared. Like he's saying "See...Everyone is doing it regardless of me." That's the sense I get.

But this isn't the only situation where he's trying to distance himself. Since he's gotten out of jail he's been doing work like this. Especially what he was and has been doing to clean up boxing. There's a reason VADA trusts him as a go to guy. His name was smeared but now he's one of the more trustworthy (IDK if that's the right word) words you can hear out there. And it's not just about telling him the information. Ok, so maybe it's not 50%. His crappy past still makes him unbelievably knowledgeable on the subject. What does baseball use, they still use USADA?

 

[frankbink5]

That homer by Stanton last night

 

[lilpenny24]

Osh I love the research but I can't get away from the simplist of arguments. If it didn't help, why are players still chancing it and using when the punishment is so harsh? They are too smart to do something that would jepordize their career and contracts.

Bingo, if it doesn't help, why risk it and get humiliated?

 

[champcruthik]

Can we talk about Tampa's pitching depth, particularly their ability to develop young arms successfully. Moore finally looks like last postseason. Price dealing like a Cy Young candidate. Rays' problem has always been the bats. Hope they sneak into the WC. Wish their fans supported the team better.

 

[gunna get it]

From the NYDN:

The scheme began unfolding in July as Cabrera and his representatives scrambled to explain a spike in the former Yankee's testosterone levels. Cabrera associate Juan Nunez, described by the player's agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, as a "paid consultant" of their firm but not an "employee," is alleged to have paid $10,000 to acquire the phony website. The idea, apparently, was to lay a trail of digital breadcrumbs suggesting Cabrera had ordered a supplement that ended up causing the positive test, and to rely on a clause in the collectively bargained drug program that allows a player who has tested positive to attempt to prove he ingested a banned substance through no fault of his own.

"There was a product they said caused this positive," one source familiar with the case said of Cabrera's scheme. "Baseball figured out the ruse pretty quickly."


Melky

ban his *** another 50 games for being STUPID

 

[mr jordan04]

Melky

 

[bigmike23]

From the NYDN:
The scheme began unfolding in July as Cabrera and his representatives scrambled to explain a spike in the former Yankee's testosterone levels. Cabrera associate Juan Nunez, described by the player's agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, as a "paid consultant" of their firm but not an "employee," is alleged to have paid $10,000 to acquire the phony website. The idea, apparently, was to lay a trail of digital breadcrumbs suggesting Cabrera had ordered a supplement that ended up causing the positive test, and to rely on a clause in the collectively bargained drug program that allows a player who has tested positive to attempt to prove he ingested a banned substance through no fault of his own.
"There was a product they said caused this positive," one source familiar with the case said of Cabrera's scheme. "Baseball figured out the ruse pretty quickly."

Melky
ban his *** another 50 games for being STUPID

 

[651akathepaul]

So dumb.

If he had this ploy he wanted to roll with then why did he IMMEDIATELY come out and say that he was sorry for doing something he shouldn't have? What an idiot.

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

So dumb.
If he had this ploy he wanted to roll with then why did he IMMEDIATELY come out and say that he was sorry for doing something he shouldn't have? What an idiot.

This. What a moron.

 

[jjs07]

Melky shoulda just consulted w. Ryan Braun as to how to properly cover your tracks and beat the system.

 

[gunna get it]

So dumb.
If he had this ploy he wanted to roll with then why did he IMMEDIATELY come out and say that he was sorry for doing something he shouldn't have? What an idiot.

because he did not immediately admit that.

he started to put his intended plan into effect in July back when the results were known to the league.

the public didnt learn of the test results until later.

 

[651akathepaul]

I guess that makes a little more sense. Still a dummy though.

 

[kookcle]

The Angels deserve to be looking up at everyone in the standings.
******g pathetic performances day in and day out.
Ever since Vernon Wells came back it's been down-the-****-hill.

If Mike Sciosia gets fired....

Spoiler:

 

[mr jordan04]

I think he's getting fired if they dont make the playoffs

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Would LaRussa come back though?

 

[freddie black]

Man, I didn't think he had enough pop but at this point it wouldn't surprise me if we see a 40/40 season from Trout soon.

 

[madj55]

Nats are about to improve to 9-3 vs the Mets this year and Harper is finally starting to heat up, if only we still had Wilson Ramos our lineup would be extremely potent.

 

[antoekneeo]

How much money has Greinke cost himself? Outside of his first start against the Rays he has looked awful.

 

[proshares]

Cubs Bet Big On Starlin Castro’s Improvement.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Two months ago, Dale Sveum said this about shortstop Starlin Castro, who forgot how many outs there were on a potential double play ball:

“It’s something that’s obviously unacceptable at any time,” Sveum said Monday.

“Whether we could have turned the double play or not is irrelevant to not knowing how many outs there are in the most important part of the game. These things have got to stop happening or he’s going to stop playing.

“These kind of things are things that my son does in high school, maybe.”

Well, I’m pretty sure Castro won’t be getting benched any time soon, as the Cubs have reportedly agreed to sign him to a seven year, $60 million contract extension that should be finalized in the next week or two. The deal contains a team option that gives the Cubs control over Castro through the 2020 season, buying out up to four free agent seasons in the process.

So, yeah, Castro’s job security isn’t really a question anymore. The question now is whether this was the right bet for the Cubs to make.

On the one hand, Castro can be a frustrating player. He’s been prone to mental lapses like the one cited above, he’s been chided for a lack of hustle at times, and his approach at the plate seems to be getting worse, not better. On the other hand, Castro is just five months older than Deven Marrero, the Red Sox first round selection in the most recent June draft, and Marrero is currently playing in the short-season New York-Penn League. That Castro is in his third year in the Majors and holding his own at this point in his career is a sign of his legitimate talent.

The list of shortstops who have posted better offensive numbers than Castro in 1,000+ plate appearances through age 22 is very, very short. In the last 60 years, in fact, the list is only four players long – Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, Jim Fregosi, and Wil Cordero. Shortstops who got to the Majors early and hit worse than Castro has to date? Gary Sheffield, Alan Trammell, Robin Yount, and Jose Reyes all fall in that category. These are the kinds of history lessons that make you want to lock up Castro now, before he takes a big step forward offensively and starts seeing free agency looming in the near future.

However, those kinds of facts ignore the fact that Castro hasn’t really improved much since getting to the big leagues in 2010. He’s posting career worst marks in walk rate strikeout rate, and BABIP, all of which is leading to a 91 wRC+, worse than he posted in either of the last two years. His defense has improved, and there are fewer questions now about whether he can remain at shortstop, but his offense hasn’t progressed as quickly as the Cubs would have hoped. Of course, he’s still an above average shortstop even at this level, but usually, large contracts like this are given to players who begin to establish new levels of excellence. Castro’s contract bets on that leap coming before it has actually materialized.

History suggests that the leap probably is coming. Most guys who are above average players from 20-22 become excellent players in their mid-20s, and Castro certainly has the physical tools to become an excellent player. If Castro follows a normal development curve, he could easily be a +4 or +5 win player by the time he would have reached free agency, and a contract to keep him in Chicago then would have been two or three times the size of this one. So, if this is the cost of keeping Castro in Chicago through his twenties, then it’s probably better than not signing the deal and going year-to-year, as that would bring legitimate risk of a breakout season pushing his costs up very quickly.

However, given the contracts that have been handed out to other players at similar spots of their career, the Cubs didn’t really get much of a bargain here. Thanks to MLBTradeRumors extremely useful Extension Tracker, we can identify five other players with similar levels of service time who were also going to qualify as Super-Twos, meaning that they got an early bite at the arbitration apple and were due for larger raises earlier in their career. Going back to 2008, here are the players who signed multi-year deals as Super-Twos with between 2-3 years of service time:




Player Age Avg WAR Years Dollars Team Options
Robinson Cano 25 2.8 4 30 2
Cole Hamels 25 3.6 3 20
Tim Lincecum 26 5.6 2 23
Jay Bruce 24 3.0 6 51 1
Gio Gonzalez 26 2.5 5 42 2
Starlin Castro 23 2.7 7 60 1

Age represents their first season covered by the extension, while average WAR is their career total prorated to either 600 PA or 180 IP, depending on whether they are a hitter or a pitcher. Hamels and Lincecum decided to take shorter deals that would not delay their free agency, and their 2012 performances show the relative benefits and costs of betting on their own future performance. Hamels came out far ahead of where he would have otherwise, while Lincecum might regret not taking a long term deal when he had the chance.

Among those who did sign away free agent years, though, it is interesting that there’s a nearly perfect linear increase in terms of years and dollars with each each extension. Cano got 4/30, Gonzalez got 5/40, Bruce got 6/50, and Castro has got 7/60 – in each case, the guaranteed dollar amount went up by $10 million for each additional year added on. And, note the relationship between length of deal and age – including the team options, the contracts for Bruce, Cano, and Castro all end after their age 30 season despite the fact that they signed them at different ages. Bruce and Cano were coming off better seasons than what Castro has posted this year, but he had youth on his side, which is why (along with inflation, anyway) he got more guaranteed money than either one.

The other notable takeaway from these contracts? You probably don’t want your best young players qualifying for Super-Two status. For comparison, both Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen also signed long term extension for $51 million over six guaranteed years with a little over two years of service time under their belts when they signed the deal, and both were coming off substantially better seasons than what Castro has put up this year. Castro got more guaranteed money than either one despite being an inferior player because of that extra year of arbitration eligibility.

Had Castro been called up a couple of months later in 2010, he would have been looking at another year of near-minimum salary, and would have been negotiating from a significantly reduced amount of leverage. If you look at the deals signed by the like of Alexei Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, you’ll notice that Castro’s Super-Two status probably got him an extra $10 to $20 million over the life of the deal.

The Cubs can’t undo the service time clock, so they were faced with a decision to do this now or wait until he has a breakout season and then try to lock him up at a higher price. History says that breakout is probably coming, so as long as Castro didn’t need that future paycheck to serve as a motivational tool, they were probably wise to get this deal done now. The combination of Super-Two status and his exceptionally young age just didn’t do them many favors when negotiating, however, and Castro ended up pretty well compensated relative to other players in a similar situation. Now the Cubs just have to hope that the expected breakout comes sooner rather than later.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ichiro’s Sudden Selectivity In Pinstripes.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

When Seattle traded Ichiro Suzuki to New York in mid-July, the 38-year-old outfielder owned a mere .281 wOBA and was largely assumed to be on his last legs as a major-league baseball player. He still provided value with his glove, but his 77 wRC+ was simply too unproductive to pencil in as a right fielder every night.

As a New York Yankee, however, Ichiro has enjoyed far greater success and has people dreaming of his six-win years in Seattle.

After last night’s two-home-run outburst against Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox, the former MVP has hit .322/.344/.506 with the Bronx Bombers, and his .364 wOBA as a Yankee is well above average in relation to the remainder of American League right fielders.

The overall statistics should obviously be taken with a massive grain of salt due to the standard small sample size concerns. Not to mention he still has only drawn one walk since joining New York, and he also has seen his BABIP increase almost 40-points in that time frame. Plenty of reasons exist as to why we should not trot onto the field at Yankee Stadium and celebrate his re-coronation.

At the same time, Ichiro’s selectivity at the plate has drastically changed since donning pinstripes.

He has never posted gargantuan walk rates at any point of his career, but Ichiro began his career with the Mariners as a relatively selective hitter at the plate. His O-Swing% hovered between 16.6-25.2% from 2002 to 2006, right just a bit above league average, despite having a reputation as a swing-at-anything hack. His unique approach paid off, as he never had less than a .336 wOBA over that time frame and hit over .300 in his first ten seasons in the big leagues.

Even as he continued to churn out a .300 batting average season after season, though, his selectivity waned.

Year O-Swing Above Average Team wOBA Ranking
2006 1.30% 23rd
2007 2.10% 13th
2008 3.30% 27th
2009 2.80% 26th
2010 5.00% 30th
2011 5.60% 30th

From 2006 to 2011, Ichiro began swinging at more and more pitches outside the strike zone. The Mariners’ offense also became progressively worse until it hit rock bottom in recent seasons.

Now, this is not to suggest that Seattle’s production at the plate declined due to Ichiro’s declining selectivity over the past half-decade. Their offensive woes go much deeper than that. Instead, perhaps it’s reasonable to postulate that Ichiro began swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone because he was trying to do too much to compensate for the remainder of the batting order declining in talent. Perhaps he began trying to shoulder the load for the Mariners, becoming more aggressive because he was not confident that the bats behind him could drive in runs.

That’s certainly subjective analysis — and one could also argue that Ichiro’s O-Swing% increased because he began to see fewer fastballs as his career progressed — but the analysis does coincide with his sudden selectivity at the plate with the Yankees.

Prior to being traded, Ichiro swung at 35.6% of the pitches outside the zone. Since the trade, however, that number has plummeted to 24.9%. His swing percentage is down across the board and even the percentage of pitches he fouls off has dropped dramatically. Thus, his effectiveness with the bat has unsurprisingly increased, as one would imagine that his ability to better drive pitches would coincide with his choosing better pitches at which to swing.

The real interesting question then becomes whether his increased selectivity is a product of mere small sample size variation or a product of his new environment, where he happens to be surrounded by better hitters and an organization that has traditionally swung at few pitches outside the zone for the past decade.

Unfortunately, not enough time has elapsed to draw any solid conclusions as to the reason for the sudden jump in selectivity at the plate. The only conclusion we can draw at this point is that New York must feel as if they fleeced Seattle in the mid-season trade, sending two fringe prospects (at best) for a guy posting a .364 wOBA through his first 26 games with the organization — even if that level of production may be fleeting.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cody Ross, But Cheaper.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Red Sox entered this season with high hopes. Fast-forward 122 games and they’re a disappointing 59-63 with just 4% odds of making the playoffs. The front of the rotation has had issues preventing runs. Several members of the lineup have performed below their established level of production. Plenty of key contributors have spent time on the disabled list, and recent reports suggest players have a mutinous relationship with their manager.

Plenty has gone wrong for the 2012 Red Sox, but one of the bright spots has been Cody Ross. The 31-year-old outfielder, who signed for just one year and $3 million, has a .359 wOBA, 122 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR. His strong production has many wondering about his next contract. Ross has said that he’d like to return to Boston, and all signs point to the team having mutual interest. Ross may have put himself in line for a multi-year deal similar to Josh Willingham‘s most recent contract — three years and $21 million — despite being less consistent and not as talented. Willingham has produced in the 3 WAR to 4 WAR range during the past several seasons while Ross has been in the 2 WAR to 3 WAR range.

And then there’s this: the main area in which Ross excels — crushing lefties — can be replicated fairly easily. Interested teams may be able to acquire cheaper Ross-like production by considering a few players with similar skill-sets.

Ross’s platoon split is significant, and while he isn’t terrible against right-handed pitchers, the majority of the production that beautifies his overall line is attributable to beating up on opposite-handed hurlers. Ross has a career .395 wOBA against lefties and he is usually consistent in the .380-.400 range. This season, he has a .402 OBP, .766 SLG, .473 wOBA and 200 wRC+ against lefties. His .473 wOBA and 200 wRC+ ranks second in the American League to Billy Butler (.474 wOBA and 206 wRC+). His .436 ISO leads the junior circuit and is a mere six points behind Ryan Braun in all of baseball.

Against righties, Ross is below average, but not terrible. He has a career .308 wOBA and a 91 wRC+ when facing his same-handed brethren. His power output is solid, but Ross is really a glorified platoon player. Even this season, which looks like the best full year of his career, his numbers are amplified by tremendous production against lefties. He has a 92 wRC+ against righties and hasn’t really improved on that front.

Teams can succeed with him handling regular duty at an outfield spot, but it’s a risky proposition to dole out a fairly lucrative deal to someone who excels when lefties are on the mound but is ho-hum against right-handers. The major reason here is that righties tend to throw 70%+ of the innings in a season.

With that in mind, teams considering Ross this offseason should also take a look at Alfonso Soriano, Jonny Gomes or Chris Denorfia. All three players stand to produce as well as Ross, but without costing as much. Payroll isn’t necessarily a material concern for the Red Sox but these players potentially represent cost-efficient alternatives.

The Cubs have been shopping Soriano for quite some time and are on the hook for $38 million over the next two seasons. Recent reports suggested that Chicago would eat all but approximately $3 million per year of Soriano’s salary. At $6 million in 2013 and 2014, plus a prospect or two, Soriano could provide more balance at the plate at less of a cost. He isn’t a lefty-crusher like Ross, but is stronger against same-handed pitching and has wRC+ marks of 148, 109 and 106 against lefties in the past three seasons. He doesn’t get on base all that much but still has plenty of power: He has a .225+ ISOs since 2010.

Gomes is similar to Ross in that the bulk of his production has come against lefties. He has a career wOBA platoon split of .381/.317 and a career wRC+ split of 136/92. He has been worse than Ross against righties in recent years but hasn’t slowed down at all against lefties. He signed a one-year, $1 million deal with the Athletics this offseason and won’t cost any prospects to acquire when he hits the free-agent market.

Unlike Ross, Gomes is viewed as a defensive liability, even though his fielding marks don’t usually back up that assertion. Despite a strong season in Oakland, it’s hard to imagine Gomes signing for three years, $21 million. He could be the perfect fallback option for an interested party if Ross becomes too expensive.

Denorfia is an interesting player in this forum, as he has another year of arbitration eligibility and isn’t exactly similar to Ross, Soriano or Gomes. He is also a fairly underrated player because his offensive output has been suppressed in San Diego. When adjusting for league and park, however, Denorfia has impressive numbers. He has wRC+ marks of 113, 107 and 120 since 2010, and he rates well in the field and on the bases.

He also has a clear platoon split, with a career wRC+ split of 125/97, favoring lefties. However, he has performed above average against righties in two of the past three seasons. He doesn’t stand to make much money next season, and at 32 years old, he isn’t likely to be considered part of the Padres future. While he has struggled to stay healthy, he would represent a fine consolation prize to those that miss out on the Ross sweepstakes.

Ross is having a fine season and will probably sign a multi-year deal this offseason. But the performance inputs leading to his overall stat-line, and the specific components of his game that make him an attractive free agent target are not truly hard to find elsewhere. The players discussed above are but three examples that will likely cost less than Ross, despite producing similarly. Signing Ross is a perfectly suitable decision this offseason, but some teams might be better-suited to find a more cost-efficient alternative or the next Ross, as opposed to the outfielder himself.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comebacker Of The Year.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Paul just put up his early look at the Comeback Player of the Year, but while this headline is similar, I’m going to talk about something quite different. A couple of days ago, Keith Law was being asked about comeback players on Twitter, and I jokingly suggested that perhaps the award should go to the guy who hit the most ground balls to the pitcher, sometimes referred to “comebackers”, at least by me anyway. Based on his terrible results and lack of power, I guessed that Yunel Escobar might rank pretty highly on the list.

In fairly quick order, several people started requesting just such a list, and so I hit up query-master Jeff Zimmerman, who came through as always, presenting me with a list of batters who had hit into the most groundouts where the pitcher got an assist. We are not giving any extra credit for hitting into double or triple plays – this is simply a straight count of balls hit back to the pitcher that resulted in an out.

The long awaited results for Comebacker Of The Year (So Far) after the jump.




Rank Player Comebackers
1 Yonder Alonso 18
2 Brian McCann 17
3 Jason Heyward 16
4 Michael Brantley 16
5 Jason Kipnis 16

Congratulations, Yonder Alonso – your combination of high contact rates, marginal power, and total lack of foot speed have made you the early leader for this dubious honor. Interestingly, though three other guys in the top five all run fairly well, so perhaps I’m overstating the effect of Alonso’s slugglishness on his comebacker ranking. After all, not too many guys are going to beat out a ground ball to the pitcher…

Yunel Escobar, if you’re curious, has only hit back to the pitcher four times all year, tying him for 150th in the Majors in this one particular thing. So, apparently, I’m not very good at guessing. Sorry for besmirching your good name, Mr. Escobar.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An Early Look At Comeback Player Of The Year.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Subjective questions swirl around most awards discussions — should a pitcher win MVP, should the Rookie of the Year be the best player that season or the one with the brightest future, does the Manager of the Year and/or MVP need to come from a playoff team, etc. But Comeback Player of the Year may be the most loosely defined award. As I detailed in this exercise last season, the only criteria is that a player “re-emerged,” which is very much open to interpretation. So, let’s try to take an objective look.

Last year, I hit on Jacoby Ellsbury taking Comeback honors in the American League, but I whiffed on Lance Berkman in the National League. By looking at players who had compiled less than 2.0 WAR in 2010, I excluded Berkman, who had put up 2.1 WAR in his time with the Astros and Yankees (well, okay, just the Astros). So this season, I widened my search. I cross-referenced who posted a WAR of 2.5 or less in 2011 and at least 1.0 so far this season. Doing so did help me catch some players that I wouldn’t have last year, so I’ve got that going for me.

The other subjective factor with the Comeback Player of the Year is determining what exactly from the player is coming back. There is a big difference between a young player breaking out and a veteran rebounding from a dismal season. Ruminate on that as we move forward.

Like last year, let’s take a look at the players with a 2.0 WAR difference between this year and last. We’ll start with the AL (all numbers current as of Thursday):



Player 11 WAR 12 WAR Diff
Adam Dunn -2.9 1.7 4.6
Alex Rios -0.7 3.3 4.0
Chris Sale 1.4 4 2.6
Raul Ibanez -1.3 1 2.3
Josh Reddick 1.9 4.1 2.2
A.J. Pierzynski 1.4 3.5 2.1
Joe Mauer 1.6 3.7 2.1
Edwin Encarnacion 1.5 3.6 2.1
Mike Moustakas 0.7 2.8 2.1
Fernando Rodney -0.2 1.8 2.0
Kyle Seager 0.5 2.5 2.0

Now, right away, we can cut a few of these guys, under the breakout vs. re-emerge theory. Sale, Reddick, Moustakas, Seager, and probably even Encarnacion, aren’t guys that you think of as established stars that were bad last season. They’re guys who are taking the next step. So if we dip down a little further on the list, we see guys like Brandon Inge (1.9 WAR difference), Jason Hammel (1., Kevin Millwood (1.7), Justin Morneau (1.7), Cody Ross (1.6) and Colby Rasmus (1.6). All would be deserving of mention, and Hammel in particular may have been a chief candidate had he not been felled by a right-knee injury that required surgery. But there’s still one name that we’re not seeing — one Austin Jarriel Jackson.

Jackson has been lauded as a player who has completely turned around his career, and with just cause. After finishing second place for the 2010 AL ROY Award, Jackson had a sobering year in ’11, at least offensively. And there is the rub. Jackson has scored well in advanced defensive metrics like UZR and DRS in all three of his major league seasons, and last year his UZR was a large factor in his entirely respectable 2.8 WAR. Jackson is undoubtedly having a much better season this year — his 4.8 WAR is already 2.0 better than last year — so whether or not you think he deserves this award essentially boils down to how you feel about his defensive contributions.

In the end though, it may not matter. Dunn, an All-Star, MVP candidate and prodigious producer of power before 2011, has come back in a big way this season. The White Sox’s only path to contention this season was for him and Rios to rebound from their dismal ’11 seasons, and that is exactly what has happened. Along with career years from Pierzynski and Sale, Dunn and Rios have done their part to put Chicago back in contention. Dunn hasn’t been the best of the bunch — in fact, he’s been worth less than the other three — but considering how bad he was last year, he’s had the largest transformation in the game, one that helped him net an All-Star berth this season.

Now for the Senior Circuit:



Player 11 WAR 12 WAR Diff
David Wright 1.9 5.9 4.0
Buster Posey 1.7 5 3.3
Wade Miley 0.1 3.3 3.2
Bronson Arroyo -1.3 1.7 3.0
Jason Heyward 2.2 5.1 2.9
Pedro Alvarez -0.8 2 2.8
Aroldis Chapman 0.6 3.2 2.6
A.J. Ellis 0.7 3.3 2.6
Aaron Hill 0.8 3.4 2.6
Adam LaRoche -0.2 2.3 2.5
Martin Prado 1.6 4.1 2.5
Tyler Colvin -1 1.4 2.4
Jose Altuve 0.3 2.6 2.3
Paul Goldschmidt 0.6 2.9 2.3
Jed Lowrie 0.3 2.5 2.2
Ian Desmond 1.4 3.6 2.2
Chris Johnson -0.8 1.2 2.0
Josh Johnson 1.7 3.6 1.9

You’ll notice I broke my own 2.0 WAR rule in that chart, but Josh Johnson is the type of guy that this award is made for, and he should get over the threshold soon enough, assuming he stays healthy. The list does exclude Alfonso Soriano (1.8 difference), Juan Pierre (1.6), Joe Blanton (1.3), and if you dig a little deeper, Hanley Ramirez (0., Chad Billingsley (0., Chipper Jones (0. and A.J. Burnett (0.7). Jones in particular figures to be an interesting name to consider here. If he doesn’t factor into the MVP vote — and honestly, he very well could — there may be a push to give the soon-to-be-retired Jones *some* kind of award, and this one would fit.

But, while there has been a whole lotta revival going on in the NL this year, this should basically be a two-man race. If we knock out Miley on the grounds that he wasn’t really even an established player last year, the two by themselves at the top of this list are Wright and Posey. If the Mets were still in the playoff chase, Wright would be a no-doubter. Combine the stress fracture in his lower back that he sustained last season with the fact that he entered 2012 a full three years removed from his last seven-win season, and it was fair to wonder if the notion of “David Wright, superstar” had run its course. But he has rung the bell in resounding fashion this season, putting up a season commensurate with his 2007-08 peak.

Of course, Posey is not going to go quietly, and with the Giants in the playoff hunt, and since his injury was front-page news nationally moreso than was Wright’s, Posey may take the Comeback honors himself. He is undoubtedly having his best season, and we are probably in store for many more of these seasons. I would dock him slightly for the award on the subjective basis that his injury was a freak thing, whereas Wright’s was borne out of wear and tear, but that’s a minor thing. Outside of those two and Jones, Chapman, Arroyo, Heyward and Alvarez could get playoff-push bumps, though to me Chapman is more “most-improved” than “comeback.”

Comeback Player of the Year is a totally subjective award, and ultimately, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. No one is bringing up Comeback Player of the Year in arbitration hearings, and I’ve never heard of a bonus incentive tied to it either. Still, that doesn’t mean we should ignore it. Multiple players can make compelling arguments in each league, but at this juncture of the season, it looks like Adam Dunn, Alex Rios (and maybe Austin Jackson), David Wright and Buster Posey are the front runners, with Dunn and Wright having separated from the pack.


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