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Yo Jesus, you gotta turn that thing right side up yo...
Nice cover!!!
Nice cover!!!
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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stupid phone.....good looks. Haven't seen that in a long time, but the article was some sappy self absorbed nostalgic blog post from the writer. It's all good though.
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Nice. Repped...Got Boston coming to Baltimore, gotta get these games...
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Big opportunity for Baltimore. O's need this W tonight.
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Yesiir...Ryan Flathery wit his first grand slam!! Congrats to Wieters & his wife on the birth of their first child...
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can't count on boston for sh*t !!!!! 
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Da O's hon! Chris Davis & Handy Manny hittin' like a bawse!!!
onewearz -
Didn't you celebrate an anniversary? If so, happy anniversary...Wish you & yours many more....
onewearz -
Didn't you celebrate an anniversary? If so, happy anniversary...Wish you & yours many more....
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it was in august but good lookin fam
now please lose ......
now please lose ......
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Great night at Camden yesterday. Atmosphere was amazing - incredible difference from years past playing the Sox. Brooks Robinson had his statue unveiled, and all the legends were in attendance.
Entirely too pessimistic to start celebrating until they clinch a berth, but if they manage to win the division I'll be in danger of alcohol poisoning.
Manny Mach
Entirely too pessimistic to start celebrating until they clinch a berth, but if they manage to win the division I'll be in danger of alcohol poisoning.
Manny Mach
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O's winning and the Yanks are losing....time to take the division.
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Stupid ****** Danny Espinoza
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Great night at Camden yesterday. Atmosphere was amazing - incredible difference from years past playing the Sox. Brooks Robinson had his statue unveiled, and all the legends were in attendance.
Entirely too pessimistic to start celebrating until they clinch a berth, but if they manage to win the division I'll be in danger of alcohol poisoning.
Manny Mach
Did you get to see the statue revealed? Awesome that Earl Weaver, Eddie Murray, Frank Robinson, Jim Palmer, & Cal were at the game for a great win against a division foe.
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Schucks. Da O's won, but so did the Yanks. As a MLB fan in general, it's good to see Ichiro playing well after toiling away in Seattle for the last several years...
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Good to see Dusty will be back in the Reds dugout when the Reds play St. Lou...
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I hope they're inspired by Dusty and sweep the Cards
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
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Having a chance to knock the Dodgers out in front of their fans 
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The O's clinch a spot Been a while...
edit: well they clinch the opportunity to play-in for the final spot at the very least
Been a while...edit: well they clinch the opportunity to play-in for the final spot at the very least
Last edited:
The AL MVP debate, from the inside.
Mike Trout's shot at 30-50 season.
The Orioles' September magic.
Yadier Molina for NL MVP.
CHICAGO -- I haven't kept notes each time I've talked with players, managers and front-office types in the past month about the American League Most Valuable Player vote, and I can't tell you exactly how many have addressed the question of whom they would pick, Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout. Probably about 50.
But the conversations have been so strikingly similar that I can say, for sure, that all but a very small handful of uniformed personnel -- by small handful, I mean two -- have told me they would pick Cabrera. And all but a very small handful of front-office types -- as in, one -- have told me they would pick Trout.
More than what it says about Cabrera and Trout, this phenomenon tells us that a massive gap of perspective between the on-field and off-field baseball folks remains, at a time when the use of advanced statistical metrics has become more pervasive than ever. "Ten years ago, you'd never see a general manager in the clubhouse," one longtime coach said this week. "Now you see all these stat guys running around, and they're always bringing you theories."
No endorsement of Cabrera or Trout for MVP should be confused for criticism of the player not picked; both players have engendered extraordinary respect within the game. When I've asked, I've done so with the promise of anonymity to encourage complete honesty of opinion.
The on-field personnel see Cabrera as an incredibly reliable, consistent and irreplaceable source of run production, someone who wrecks bad pitching but also hits good pitching. "I've seen him fight off bastard pitches with two strikes, a slider on the black -- he'll foul it off," one player said. "Then, when you're thinking he's leaning over the plate, you try to bust him inside, and he crushes it. He's the best, and he's out there every day. He's really tough, and I don't think you can put into numbers what he means to that team."
A prominent veteran player: "I would be really, really disappointed if Cabrera didn't win."
Players and coaches also mentioned the impact of Cabrera on his teammates, on how they see him provide confidence for the others merely with his presence. "He's a leader, in a way that Trout hasn't had a chance to be yet," one coach said. "You take Trout away from the Angels and it hurts, but they've got other guys. You take Cabrera away from the Tigers and they are a completely different team."
A response from an executive, which is typical of many responses I've heard: "Why is there even a conversation?" In other words, this executive views Trout as so much the superior player overall -- with his peerless baserunning, extraordinary defense and exceptional offensive skills -- that he doesn't view them as close.
"We're seeing a combination of talents we've never seen before," said one highly ranked NL official. "He does everything. He's among the best hitters in the game right now; he is the best baserunner; and he might be the best defender [in the outfield]. It's actually hard to put into words how good he is."
The advanced metrics do it for them. Some executives don't use WAR, viewing it as something of a junk stat, but virtually every team uses some form of metrics to provide a summary of a player's overall value, and Trout has dominated those, in that way that Tiger Woods once dominated in golf.
Those advanced metrics are used now more than ever to pick players, to build teams, to structure decisions made in games every day. The Cabrera-Trout debate is falling along the lines of red states and blue states, and it is just the latest clue about how much players, coaches and managers remain skeptical about the numbers that are crunched all around them.
Notables
Trout jump-started the Angels on Friday night, and Jered Weaver took it from there, in picking up his 20th victory. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Weaver won:
A) Weaver threw fastballs 37 percent of the time, his lowest percentage in more than two years and the first start this season in which he has thrown more nonfastballs than fastballs.
B) Rangers hitters were 0-for-12 with two strikes against Weaver, striking out five times. Weaver's five strikeouts came on four pitch types -- two with his slider and one each with his fastball, curveball and changeup.
• Homer Bailey was still a couple of outs from finishing his no-hitter, with Michael McKenry at the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning, and Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan set in the target the way Bailey and the other pitchers love -- demonstratively, precisely where he wants the ball. In this case, Hanigan wanted Bailey to elevate his fastball, to coax McKenry to chase the ball out of the strike zone.
McKenry fouled off a couple of pitches, but he wasn't really close to putting the ball in play, and then, after Hanigan called for a couple of sliders low and away, he beckoned Bailey to go back to a high fastball. This time, McKenry popped the ball into the air, for the 26th out; a few moments later, Bailey got the 27th out, on another popout.
As this season has gone on, Bailey has just gotten better and better, more precise, so he can hit the fringe of the strike zone, or just outside of it, especially with his high fastball. Small sample sizes mean more at this time of year than any other, and, as the Reds prepare to begin the playoffs with Bailey lined up at the back of their rotation, he's throwing the ball very well, with a 2.01 ERA for the past month. That's 11th-best in the majors for September.
The pitchers among the top 10 who are likely to be playoff-bound? The Braves' Mike Minor (a 1.09 ERA in September), Kris Medlen (1.46), Chris Tillman (1.57), Gio Gonzalez (1.74), Yu Darvish (1.80) and Lance Lynn (1.8
.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Bailey threw a no-hitter:
A) Bailey threw his fastball 71 percent of the time, his fourth-highest percentage of the season. He got 19 outs with the pitch.
B) He threw his fastball more as the game went on, including 81 percent of the time from the seventh inning on. He also threw it harder. In the first three innings, his fastball averaged 90.0 mph; in innings seven through nine, it was up to 92.1.
C) Bailey struck out seven hitters with his fastball, five on pitches in the upper half of the zone or higher.
D) Ten of 17 balls in play against Bailey (59 percent) were grounders, his third-highest percentage this season. Eight of the 12 fastballs the Pirates put in play (67 percent) were grounders.
Most no-hitters in a single season, MLB history
1884 -- 8
2012 -- 7
1991 -- 7
1990 -- 7
1969 -- 6
1908 -- 6
1917 -- 6
Bailey looked calm on the outside but had some nerves working on the inside, as John Fay writes.
Dusty Baker wasn't at the park, but he will be soon. Ryan Ludwick will be back in the lineup Sunday after passing a test.
• Robin Ventura's postgame news conference was broadcast in the White Sox clubhouse after their heartening victory Friday, just as it was after their terrible defeat Thursday, and Jake Peavy watched both and was struck deeply by how Ventura sounded and looked exactly the same. "Do you know how awesome that is?" Peavy said. "Do you know how important that is for young players?"
"Robin remembers what it's like to be a player, and that's incredibly important. This guy is going to grow into a great manager. That demeanor is a quality that is hard to [find]."
Chicago's win Friday was just its second in 10 games, yet Ventura has remained consistent throughout. "We've been dragging this man through a wringer with the way we've been playing, all these close games," Peavy said. "He's going to be like Keith Hernandez in that Just For Men commercial by the time he's done with this job. All that hair is going to be gray."
Cheers erupted in U.S. Cellular Field after Detroit's final score was posted, as Toni Ginnetti writes. Jose Quintana will start for the White Sox on Sunday.
Ryan Doumit provided the opportunity for the White Sox to gain ground, as John Shipley writes. Brayan Villarreal just didn't have it for the Tigers, as John Lowe writes.
• Just a guess: I don't think Terry Francona will manage the Cleveland Indians. He has put himself in an elite salary class, with his work and time in Boston, and some executives expect his salary will be in the range of $3 million for his next job. Being a part of the AL Central provides the Indians with an additional level of opportunity, but Cleveland doesn't appear ready to contend immediately because of rotation issues -- and Francona probably will get a better competitive situation elsewhere.
Sandy Alomar is the interim manager -- and probably the favorite to be the permanent choice -- and the Indians won in his first game. Francona will probably interview for the position in the near future.
Alomar talked about how Mike Hargrove has been a managerial influence for him.
Dings and dents
1. Robinson Cano got some X-rays, and Yankee Nation awaits the results.
2. This is a significant blow to the Texas bullpen: Mike Adams is sidelined indefinitely.
3. Neil Walker's season is over.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Phillies ended the third-base experiment for Chase Utley, writes Matt Gelb.
2. The Madoff money is being distributed, and the Mets aren't getting any, as Richard Sandomir writes.
3. Ozzie Guillen says he deserves another shot.
4. Tim Kawakami guesses that Barry Zito will be part of the Giants' postseason rotation. That would be a heck of an accomplishment, considering that he was left off the postseason rosters completely in 2010.
5. The Angels' rotation could undergo major changes in the offseason, as Bill Plunkett writes.
6. Tsuyoshi Nishioka did something pretty honorable.
NL West
Buster Posey appears to be OK after an injury scare, and he boosted his lead in the race for the NL batting title. The Giants have stepped up in the clutch, writes Henry Schulman.
Clayton Kershaw was "the man" for the Dodgers, but they weren't able to gain any ground. They're just running out of time.
Justin Upton did some damage.
Jeff Francis had a tough day.
A Padres rookie starter had trouble against the leadoff man.
NL Central
Here's the good news for the Cardinals: Their hitters came out of hiding, taking them one step closer to clinching a wild-card berth. The bad news: Matt Holliday was hit by a pitch and had to come out of the lineup, at a time when David Freese is already hobbling.
For the 21st straight year, the Pirates will not finish with a winning record -- and that milestone was reached in an excruciating manner, at the hands of Homer Bailey. If there was a way to quantify misery, I can't imagine another fan base has had a more difficult finish to the 2012 season than the Pittsburgh fan base.
Milwaukee lost to the Astros, and the Brewers' playoff dreams are almost over.
Darwin Barney's errorless streak ended at 141 games.
NL East
Edwin Jackson was hit hard.
On a night when Chipper Jones was honored, it was the Mets who won -- and there were questions about whether David Wright will finish his career in New York.
The Phillies were officially eliminated.
The Marlins were able to end their losing streak. For the 12th consecutive season, Mark Buerhle has compiled 200 innings, writes Craig Davis.
AL West
Ryan Dempster struggled against a quality opponent again, writes Evan Grant.
Coco Crisp was back in the lineup and helped the Athletics take a day off the calendar, as they work to hang on to their two-game lead for the second wild-card berth.
The Mariners were overpowered, as Geoff Baker writes.
AL Central
The Royals have been losing a lot lately.
AL East
The Yankees were scoreboard watching and knew they had to win, and they did, as David Waldstein writes. Russell Martin provided a powerful spark for the Yankees, writes Joel Sherman.
The Rays' eight-game winning streak ended, and in one day, Tampa Bay's playoff hopes dimmed considerably, as Marc Topkin writes. Tampa Bay doesn't want Matt Moore worrying about tipping pitches.
The Orioles blasted the Red Sox, with a lot of help from Ryan Flaherty, and now they are on the verge of clinching a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Matt Wieters is a dad.
Aaron Cook had a really bad day.
By the Numbers
from ESPN Stats & Info
7: No-hitters this season, tied for the most in one season since 1901.
19: Number of outs Bailey recorded with his fastball in his no-hitter against the Pirates.
6,541: Number of games played between being no-hit for the Pirates entering Friday; a streak dating back to 1971 when Bob Gibson no-hit Pittsburgh.
But the conversations have been so strikingly similar that I can say, for sure, that all but a very small handful of uniformed personnel -- by small handful, I mean two -- have told me they would pick Cabrera. And all but a very small handful of front-office types -- as in, one -- have told me they would pick Trout.
More than what it says about Cabrera and Trout, this phenomenon tells us that a massive gap of perspective between the on-field and off-field baseball folks remains, at a time when the use of advanced statistical metrics has become more pervasive than ever. "Ten years ago, you'd never see a general manager in the clubhouse," one longtime coach said this week. "Now you see all these stat guys running around, and they're always bringing you theories."
No endorsement of Cabrera or Trout for MVP should be confused for criticism of the player not picked; both players have engendered extraordinary respect within the game. When I've asked, I've done so with the promise of anonymity to encourage complete honesty of opinion.
The on-field personnel see Cabrera as an incredibly reliable, consistent and irreplaceable source of run production, someone who wrecks bad pitching but also hits good pitching. "I've seen him fight off bastard pitches with two strikes, a slider on the black -- he'll foul it off," one player said. "Then, when you're thinking he's leaning over the plate, you try to bust him inside, and he crushes it. He's the best, and he's out there every day. He's really tough, and I don't think you can put into numbers what he means to that team."
A prominent veteran player: "I would be really, really disappointed if Cabrera didn't win."
Players and coaches also mentioned the impact of Cabrera on his teammates, on how they see him provide confidence for the others merely with his presence. "He's a leader, in a way that Trout hasn't had a chance to be yet," one coach said. "You take Trout away from the Angels and it hurts, but they've got other guys. You take Cabrera away from the Tigers and they are a completely different team."
A response from an executive, which is typical of many responses I've heard: "Why is there even a conversation?" In other words, this executive views Trout as so much the superior player overall -- with his peerless baserunning, extraordinary defense and exceptional offensive skills -- that he doesn't view them as close.
"We're seeing a combination of talents we've never seen before," said one highly ranked NL official. "He does everything. He's among the best hitters in the game right now; he is the best baserunner; and he might be the best defender [in the outfield]. It's actually hard to put into words how good he is."
The advanced metrics do it for them. Some executives don't use WAR, viewing it as something of a junk stat, but virtually every team uses some form of metrics to provide a summary of a player's overall value, and Trout has dominated those, in that way that Tiger Woods once dominated in golf.
Those advanced metrics are used now more than ever to pick players, to build teams, to structure decisions made in games every day. The Cabrera-Trout debate is falling along the lines of red states and blue states, and it is just the latest clue about how much players, coaches and managers remain skeptical about the numbers that are crunched all around them.
Notables
Trout jump-started the Angels on Friday night, and Jered Weaver took it from there, in picking up his 20th victory. From ESPN Stats & Information, how Weaver won:
A) Weaver threw fastballs 37 percent of the time, his lowest percentage in more than two years and the first start this season in which he has thrown more nonfastballs than fastballs.
B) Rangers hitters were 0-for-12 with two strikes against Weaver, striking out five times. Weaver's five strikeouts came on four pitch types -- two with his slider and one each with his fastball, curveball and changeup.
• Homer Bailey was still a couple of outs from finishing his no-hitter, with Michael McKenry at the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning, and Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan set in the target the way Bailey and the other pitchers love -- demonstratively, precisely where he wants the ball. In this case, Hanigan wanted Bailey to elevate his fastball, to coax McKenry to chase the ball out of the strike zone.
McKenry fouled off a couple of pitches, but he wasn't really close to putting the ball in play, and then, after Hanigan called for a couple of sliders low and away, he beckoned Bailey to go back to a high fastball. This time, McKenry popped the ball into the air, for the 26th out; a few moments later, Bailey got the 27th out, on another popout.
As this season has gone on, Bailey has just gotten better and better, more precise, so he can hit the fringe of the strike zone, or just outside of it, especially with his high fastball. Small sample sizes mean more at this time of year than any other, and, as the Reds prepare to begin the playoffs with Bailey lined up at the back of their rotation, he's throwing the ball very well, with a 2.01 ERA for the past month. That's 11th-best in the majors for September.
The pitchers among the top 10 who are likely to be playoff-bound? The Braves' Mike Minor (a 1.09 ERA in September), Kris Medlen (1.46), Chris Tillman (1.57), Gio Gonzalez (1.74), Yu Darvish (1.80) and Lance Lynn (1.8
.From ESPN Stats & Info, how Bailey threw a no-hitter:
A) Bailey threw his fastball 71 percent of the time, his fourth-highest percentage of the season. He got 19 outs with the pitch.
B) He threw his fastball more as the game went on, including 81 percent of the time from the seventh inning on. He also threw it harder. In the first three innings, his fastball averaged 90.0 mph; in innings seven through nine, it was up to 92.1.
C) Bailey struck out seven hitters with his fastball, five on pitches in the upper half of the zone or higher.
D) Ten of 17 balls in play against Bailey (59 percent) were grounders, his third-highest percentage this season. Eight of the 12 fastballs the Pirates put in play (67 percent) were grounders.
Most no-hitters in a single season, MLB history
1884 -- 8
2012 -- 7
1991 -- 7
1990 -- 7
1969 -- 6
1908 -- 6
1917 -- 6
Bailey looked calm on the outside but had some nerves working on the inside, as John Fay writes.
Dusty Baker wasn't at the park, but he will be soon. Ryan Ludwick will be back in the lineup Sunday after passing a test.
• Robin Ventura's postgame news conference was broadcast in the White Sox clubhouse after their heartening victory Friday, just as it was after their terrible defeat Thursday, and Jake Peavy watched both and was struck deeply by how Ventura sounded and looked exactly the same. "Do you know how awesome that is?" Peavy said. "Do you know how important that is for young players?"
"Robin remembers what it's like to be a player, and that's incredibly important. This guy is going to grow into a great manager. That demeanor is a quality that is hard to [find]."
Chicago's win Friday was just its second in 10 games, yet Ventura has remained consistent throughout. "We've been dragging this man through a wringer with the way we've been playing, all these close games," Peavy said. "He's going to be like Keith Hernandez in that Just For Men commercial by the time he's done with this job. All that hair is going to be gray."
Cheers erupted in U.S. Cellular Field after Detroit's final score was posted, as Toni Ginnetti writes. Jose Quintana will start for the White Sox on Sunday.
Ryan Doumit provided the opportunity for the White Sox to gain ground, as John Shipley writes. Brayan Villarreal just didn't have it for the Tigers, as John Lowe writes.
• Just a guess: I don't think Terry Francona will manage the Cleveland Indians. He has put himself in an elite salary class, with his work and time in Boston, and some executives expect his salary will be in the range of $3 million for his next job. Being a part of the AL Central provides the Indians with an additional level of opportunity, but Cleveland doesn't appear ready to contend immediately because of rotation issues -- and Francona probably will get a better competitive situation elsewhere.
Sandy Alomar is the interim manager -- and probably the favorite to be the permanent choice -- and the Indians won in his first game. Francona will probably interview for the position in the near future.
Alomar talked about how Mike Hargrove has been a managerial influence for him.
Dings and dents
1. Robinson Cano got some X-rays, and Yankee Nation awaits the results.
2. This is a significant blow to the Texas bullpen: Mike Adams is sidelined indefinitely.
3. Neil Walker's season is over.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Phillies ended the third-base experiment for Chase Utley, writes Matt Gelb.
2. The Madoff money is being distributed, and the Mets aren't getting any, as Richard Sandomir writes.
3. Ozzie Guillen says he deserves another shot.
4. Tim Kawakami guesses that Barry Zito will be part of the Giants' postseason rotation. That would be a heck of an accomplishment, considering that he was left off the postseason rosters completely in 2010.
5. The Angels' rotation could undergo major changes in the offseason, as Bill Plunkett writes.
6. Tsuyoshi Nishioka did something pretty honorable.
NL West
Buster Posey appears to be OK after an injury scare, and he boosted his lead in the race for the NL batting title. The Giants have stepped up in the clutch, writes Henry Schulman.
Clayton Kershaw was "the man" for the Dodgers, but they weren't able to gain any ground. They're just running out of time.
Justin Upton did some damage.
Jeff Francis had a tough day.
A Padres rookie starter had trouble against the leadoff man.
NL Central
Here's the good news for the Cardinals: Their hitters came out of hiding, taking them one step closer to clinching a wild-card berth. The bad news: Matt Holliday was hit by a pitch and had to come out of the lineup, at a time when David Freese is already hobbling.
For the 21st straight year, the Pirates will not finish with a winning record -- and that milestone was reached in an excruciating manner, at the hands of Homer Bailey. If there was a way to quantify misery, I can't imagine another fan base has had a more difficult finish to the 2012 season than the Pittsburgh fan base.
Milwaukee lost to the Astros, and the Brewers' playoff dreams are almost over.
Darwin Barney's errorless streak ended at 141 games.
NL East
Edwin Jackson was hit hard.
On a night when Chipper Jones was honored, it was the Mets who won -- and there were questions about whether David Wright will finish his career in New York.
The Phillies were officially eliminated.
The Marlins were able to end their losing streak. For the 12th consecutive season, Mark Buerhle has compiled 200 innings, writes Craig Davis.
AL West
Ryan Dempster struggled against a quality opponent again, writes Evan Grant.
Coco Crisp was back in the lineup and helped the Athletics take a day off the calendar, as they work to hang on to their two-game lead for the second wild-card berth.
The Mariners were overpowered, as Geoff Baker writes.
AL Central
The Royals have been losing a lot lately.
AL East
The Yankees were scoreboard watching and knew they had to win, and they did, as David Waldstein writes. Russell Martin provided a powerful spark for the Yankees, writes Joel Sherman.
The Rays' eight-game winning streak ended, and in one day, Tampa Bay's playoff hopes dimmed considerably, as Marc Topkin writes. Tampa Bay doesn't want Matt Moore worrying about tipping pitches.
The Orioles blasted the Red Sox, with a lot of help from Ryan Flaherty, and now they are on the verge of clinching a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Matt Wieters is a dad.
Aaron Cook had a really bad day.
By the Numbers
from ESPN Stats & Info
7: No-hitters this season, tied for the most in one season since 1901.
19: Number of outs Bailey recorded with his fastball in his no-hitter against the Pirates.
6,541: Number of games played between being no-hit for the Pirates entering Friday; a streak dating back to 1971 when Bob Gibson no-hit Pittsburgh.
Mike Trout's shot at 30-50 season.
Joey Votto may be among the very few players in the majors today -- hell, maybe even in baseball history -- who don't define themselves by the statistics they generate. Votto doesn't set numerical goals, he explained earlier this summer. Rather, his goal is to have the best plate appearance he can as often as he can.
But Votto is more Platonic in his world view than his peers, most of whom are attracted by statistical benchmarks like a politician to a television camera.
Buster Posey acknowledged the other day that he understands that 100 RBIs isn't necessarily something that defines him -- but he wanted to reach that benchmark, and he did.
With four days left in the season, some players have opportunities to reach big, round numbers.
200 hits: Miguel Cabrera needs just one more hit to join Derek Jeter as the only members of the 200-hit club this season. Andrew McCutchen could get there with nine hits over the next four days.
40 homers: Adrian Beltre and Giancarlo Stanton each have 36, so both would have to go on a crazy tear over the next 100 hours to make it happen. And as we know, they're both fully capable of doing that.
30 homers: Prince Fielder, Billy Butler and Mike Trout are all within one homer of hitting this milestone. For Fielder, it would be his sixth consecutive season with at least 30 homers; it would give Trout a shot at a 30-50 season (he has 47 stolen bases).
100 runs: Three Yankees are closing in on this in the final days -- Robinson Cano (9, Jeter (97) and Curtis Granderson (96). And Bryce Harper has 96 runs scored, as well.
100 RBIs: Sixteen players already have hit this mark this year, and a few more could join: Adam LaRoche (99), Granderson (9 and Jay Bruce (9. A group of four players sit at 94: Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, McCutchen and Freddie Freeman.
50 steals: Trout is three away, with five games to play, and Rajai Davis has 45 steals. Davis has been on a tear.
40 steals: Michael Bourn and Ben Revere each have 39 stolen bases, Shane Victorino has 38, and four others have 37, including Juan Pierre.
50 doubles: Albert Pujols has 48 doubles to go along with his 30 homers. It could be his first 50-double season since 2004.
A .300 batting average: There are a handful of players hovering right around that number: Dexter Fowler (.300), Austin Jackson (.299), Aramis Ramirez (.299); Paul Konerko, Adrian Gonzalez and David Freese all sit at .296. Fowler is locked in because he's been shut down for the rest of the year with an injury.
200 strikeouts, for pitchers: Zack Greinke needs three more to get there; 12 others already have.
20 wins: Johnny Cueto and David Price each have 19 victories, and both make their last scheduled starts of the season today. For Price, in particular, this could be nice window dressing to have in the Cy Young award conversation -- like putting a plastic cover on a book report. Price tells Marc Topkin he wouldn't mind getting No. 20, but says he isn't focused on it.
50 saves: The Orioles' Jim Johnson has 49. Adding another would be the capper to an incredible season for him.
40 saves: Chris Perez of the Cleveland Indians has 39.
A 3.00 ERA: Chris Sale sits at 3.05, and in order to get under 3.00, a series of events would have to happen. First, there would have to be a one-game playoff for the AL Central title on Thursday; second, Robin Ventura would have to elect to start Sale; and third, he would have to generate a strong pitching line, of zero or one earned run in at least four innings. But that's the least of the White Sox's worries these days.
Elsewhere
• Here's a pretty cool number: We have four days left in the AL schedule and not one playoff spot has been clinched. Four champagne celebrations could happen today.
• Brandon Moss was mobbed by teammates after Oakland won in another walkoff. The finish line is in sight for the Athletics, who could theoretically clinch a playoff spot today.
• Cabrera leads all Triple Crown categories after mashing his 43rd homer, and the Detroit Tigers have a two-game lead with four games to play. Justin Verlander added to his Cy Young Award résumé.
Verlander's velocity
Justin Verlander's average fastball velocity by inning this season.
Inning April-Aug. Sept.
1-3 92.9 94.7
4-6 94.3 96.1
7-9 95.6 95.5
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Verlander won:
A. With seven lefties in the Twins' lineup, Verlander threw 33 changeups, his most in a start since July 2007.
B. Verlander had three strikeouts on his changeup and two more that were set up by a changeup on the previous pitch.
C. For the fifth time in six September starts, Verlander's fastball averaged at least 95 mph (95.2 on Saturday). He averaged 95 mph just twice in 27 starts prior to September. The big jump in his velocity has been early in the game, where he was averaging 93.5 before the seventh inning and has been averaging 95.3 this month.
• Sale was hammered, and now the White Sox will need a lot of help if they're going to win the AL Central.
• Manny Machado homered to push the Baltimore Orioles into a first-place tie with the Yankees, Eduardo Encino writes. Jason Hammel continues to try to work his way back from injury, as mentioned within this Dan Connolly notebook.
Best winning percentage in one-run games (since 1901):
2012: Orioles -- .757
1981: Orioles -- .750
1908: Pirates -- .733
1970: Orioles -- .727
• The New York Yankees squandered a bunch of chances, David Waldstein writes. It was an unacceptable loss, writes Joel Sherman.
Here's a scary number: David Robertson -- so crucial to the success of the Yankees' bullpen -- already has 29 appearances in August and September, and scouts are reporting that his stuff appears to have regressed. His fastball velocity is down almost 4 mph from his season high of 94.6 early in the season.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Alex Rodriguez, who was 0-for-3 with two walks on Saturday, has not driven in a run in 10 straight games. That's his longest streak without an RBI in more than seven years -- since an 11-game drought in May/June 2005.
• The Tampa Bay Rays are hanging in the race; they are within three games of Oakland for the second wild-card spot after their wipeout victory Saturday.
• A rainout in Texas means that the Rangers and Angels will play a doubleheader today. Nelson Cruz is feeling better.
The Angels sat around and lost ground, Bill Plunkett writes.
• Wild times could be ahead for the Angels, writes Jeff Fletcher.
From his story:
The Angels could play on Wednesday in Seattle, Thursday in Oakland, Friday in Baltimore and Sunday in Anaheim.
"That's a lot of road games, huh?" Angels outfielder Mark Trumbo said. "Until things become a little more clear I'd rather not spend too much time spinning the wheels on all the combinations."
• Posey has widened the lead for the NL batting title, Alex Pavolic writes.
Playoff decisions
1. The Washington Nationals have some dilemmas in lining up their postseason rotation.
2. Kyle Lohse deserves to pitch in Game 1 of the postseason for the St. Louis Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz.
3. Eric O'Flaherty is nursing a sore back and will be rested down the stretch.
4. Within this notebook, there is word that Brett Anderson continues to work to come back.
Moves, deals and decision
1. John Tomase writes that when the Boston Red Sox start their search for a new manager, experience will not be needed.
2. Terry Francona will interview with the Indians in the week ahead.
3. Justin Morneau is not sure of his future with the Minnesota Twins, writes Joe Christensen.
4. Robin Ventura wants to continue managing.
5. The Colorado Rockies will be open to trading position players for pitching, writes Troy Renck.
6. The Arizona Diamondbacks will be talking about possible staff changes Monday, writes Nick Piecoro.
Dings and dents
1. Ryan Howard broke his toe in the on-deck circle.
2. Eric Hosmer has a slight tear in his rotator cuff.
3. Jason Giambi is going to need offseason surgery, but he is not ready to retire.
AL East
• The Red Sox continue to have really bad luck against the Orioles. Boston has been unlucky in 12 of 17 games against Baltimore.
AL Central
• The Royals ended their losing streak.
AL West
• Jason Vargas finished his season on a strong note, writes Geoff Baker.
NL East
• Washington's magic number for clinching the NL East is down to one after its latest victory. Kurt Suzuki continues to validate the trade for him.
• With the postseason around the corner, Mike Minor is throwing great, and he shut out the Mets on Saturday.
A different Brave
Mike Minor's season split into two halves.
Stat April-June July-Sept.
Innings 85 2/3 93 2/3
Homers 18 8
BB per 9 4.0 1.7
ERA 6.20 2.21
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Minor beat the Mets:
A. Minor threw fastballs on 49 percent of his pitches, his second straight start and just the fifth of his career in which he threw more offspeed pitches than fastballs.
B. Mets hitters were 1-for-13 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending with a Minor offspeed pitch. He had two strikeouts on both his curveball and slider, the first start of his career he's had at least two strikeouts with each.
C. Minor started 16 of 21 hitters (76 percent) with a first-pitch strike, his highest percentage this season and second highest of his career.
• Ricky Nolasco had a rough final start.
NL Central
• The Cardinals lost in extra innings; they're still in the driver's seat for the second wild-card spot.
• The Milwaukee Brewers are still alive after their latest victory.
• Andrew McCutchen lightened the mood in Pittsburgh.
• The Reds are not hitting that well, writes Hal McCoy.
• The Cubs lost their 99th game.
NL West
• The Dodgers and Matt Kemp are still alive.
• Madison Bumgarner was shaky in his last start before the postseason.
• Chase Headley bashed his 30th homer.
• Trevor Cahill threw a complete game.
By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats & Info
9: Fastball strikeouts by Marco Estrada on Saturday, tied for the third most by any pitcher this season.
14: Walkoff wins by the A's this season, matching their total for the previous three years combined.
24: Home runs by Cabrera in games won by Verlander since the two became teammates in 2008. According to Elias, that's the highest such total for any batter-pitcher combination in the majors during that span.
93: Two-strike hits for Martin Prado this season, which leads the majors; he had two two-strike hits in the Braves' win Saturday.
But Votto is more Platonic in his world view than his peers, most of whom are attracted by statistical benchmarks like a politician to a television camera.
Buster Posey acknowledged the other day that he understands that 100 RBIs isn't necessarily something that defines him -- but he wanted to reach that benchmark, and he did.
With four days left in the season, some players have opportunities to reach big, round numbers.
200 hits: Miguel Cabrera needs just one more hit to join Derek Jeter as the only members of the 200-hit club this season. Andrew McCutchen could get there with nine hits over the next four days.
40 homers: Adrian Beltre and Giancarlo Stanton each have 36, so both would have to go on a crazy tear over the next 100 hours to make it happen. And as we know, they're both fully capable of doing that.
30 homers: Prince Fielder, Billy Butler and Mike Trout are all within one homer of hitting this milestone. For Fielder, it would be his sixth consecutive season with at least 30 homers; it would give Trout a shot at a 30-50 season (he has 47 stolen bases).
100 runs: Three Yankees are closing in on this in the final days -- Robinson Cano (9
, Jeter (97) and Curtis Granderson (96). And Bryce Harper has 96 runs scored, as well.100 RBIs: Sixteen players already have hit this mark this year, and a few more could join: Adam LaRoche (99), Granderson (9
and Jay Bruce (9. A group of four players sit at 94: Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, McCutchen and Freddie Freeman.50 steals: Trout is three away, with five games to play, and Rajai Davis has 45 steals. Davis has been on a tear.
40 steals: Michael Bourn and Ben Revere each have 39 stolen bases, Shane Victorino has 38, and four others have 37, including Juan Pierre.
50 doubles: Albert Pujols has 48 doubles to go along with his 30 homers. It could be his first 50-double season since 2004.
A .300 batting average: There are a handful of players hovering right around that number: Dexter Fowler (.300), Austin Jackson (.299), Aramis Ramirez (.299); Paul Konerko, Adrian Gonzalez and David Freese all sit at .296. Fowler is locked in because he's been shut down for the rest of the year with an injury.
200 strikeouts, for pitchers: Zack Greinke needs three more to get there; 12 others already have.
20 wins: Johnny Cueto and David Price each have 19 victories, and both make their last scheduled starts of the season today. For Price, in particular, this could be nice window dressing to have in the Cy Young award conversation -- like putting a plastic cover on a book report. Price tells Marc Topkin he wouldn't mind getting No. 20, but says he isn't focused on it.
50 saves: The Orioles' Jim Johnson has 49. Adding another would be the capper to an incredible season for him.
40 saves: Chris Perez of the Cleveland Indians has 39.
A 3.00 ERA: Chris Sale sits at 3.05, and in order to get under 3.00, a series of events would have to happen. First, there would have to be a one-game playoff for the AL Central title on Thursday; second, Robin Ventura would have to elect to start Sale; and third, he would have to generate a strong pitching line, of zero or one earned run in at least four innings. But that's the least of the White Sox's worries these days.
Elsewhere
• Here's a pretty cool number: We have four days left in the AL schedule and not one playoff spot has been clinched. Four champagne celebrations could happen today.
• Brandon Moss was mobbed by teammates after Oakland won in another walkoff. The finish line is in sight for the Athletics, who could theoretically clinch a playoff spot today.
• Cabrera leads all Triple Crown categories after mashing his 43rd homer, and the Detroit Tigers have a two-game lead with four games to play. Justin Verlander added to his Cy Young Award résumé.
Verlander's velocity
Justin Verlander's average fastball velocity by inning this season.
Inning April-Aug. Sept.
1-3 92.9 94.7
4-6 94.3 96.1
7-9 95.6 95.5
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Verlander won:
A. With seven lefties in the Twins' lineup, Verlander threw 33 changeups, his most in a start since July 2007.
B. Verlander had three strikeouts on his changeup and two more that were set up by a changeup on the previous pitch.
C. For the fifth time in six September starts, Verlander's fastball averaged at least 95 mph (95.2 on Saturday). He averaged 95 mph just twice in 27 starts prior to September. The big jump in his velocity has been early in the game, where he was averaging 93.5 before the seventh inning and has been averaging 95.3 this month.
• Sale was hammered, and now the White Sox will need a lot of help if they're going to win the AL Central.
• Manny Machado homered to push the Baltimore Orioles into a first-place tie with the Yankees, Eduardo Encino writes. Jason Hammel continues to try to work his way back from injury, as mentioned within this Dan Connolly notebook.
Best winning percentage in one-run games (since 1901):
2012: Orioles -- .757
1981: Orioles -- .750
1908: Pirates -- .733
1970: Orioles -- .727
• The New York Yankees squandered a bunch of chances, David Waldstein writes. It was an unacceptable loss, writes Joel Sherman.
Here's a scary number: David Robertson -- so crucial to the success of the Yankees' bullpen -- already has 29 appearances in August and September, and scouts are reporting that his stuff appears to have regressed. His fastball velocity is down almost 4 mph from his season high of 94.6 early in the season.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Alex Rodriguez, who was 0-for-3 with two walks on Saturday, has not driven in a run in 10 straight games. That's his longest streak without an RBI in more than seven years -- since an 11-game drought in May/June 2005.
• The Tampa Bay Rays are hanging in the race; they are within three games of Oakland for the second wild-card spot after their wipeout victory Saturday.
• A rainout in Texas means that the Rangers and Angels will play a doubleheader today. Nelson Cruz is feeling better.
The Angels sat around and lost ground, Bill Plunkett writes.
• Wild times could be ahead for the Angels, writes Jeff Fletcher.
From his story:
The Angels could play on Wednesday in Seattle, Thursday in Oakland, Friday in Baltimore and Sunday in Anaheim.
"That's a lot of road games, huh?" Angels outfielder Mark Trumbo said. "Until things become a little more clear I'd rather not spend too much time spinning the wheels on all the combinations."
• Posey has widened the lead for the NL batting title, Alex Pavolic writes.
Playoff decisions
1. The Washington Nationals have some dilemmas in lining up their postseason rotation.
2. Kyle Lohse deserves to pitch in Game 1 of the postseason for the St. Louis Cardinals, writes Bernie Miklasz.
3. Eric O'Flaherty is nursing a sore back and will be rested down the stretch.
4. Within this notebook, there is word that Brett Anderson continues to work to come back.
Moves, deals and decision
1. John Tomase writes that when the Boston Red Sox start their search for a new manager, experience will not be needed.
2. Terry Francona will interview with the Indians in the week ahead.
3. Justin Morneau is not sure of his future with the Minnesota Twins, writes Joe Christensen.
4. Robin Ventura wants to continue managing.
5. The Colorado Rockies will be open to trading position players for pitching, writes Troy Renck.
6. The Arizona Diamondbacks will be talking about possible staff changes Monday, writes Nick Piecoro.
Dings and dents
1. Ryan Howard broke his toe in the on-deck circle.
2. Eric Hosmer has a slight tear in his rotator cuff.
3. Jason Giambi is going to need offseason surgery, but he is not ready to retire.
AL East
• The Red Sox continue to have really bad luck against the Orioles. Boston has been unlucky in 12 of 17 games against Baltimore.
AL Central
• The Royals ended their losing streak.
AL West
• Jason Vargas finished his season on a strong note, writes Geoff Baker.
NL East
• Washington's magic number for clinching the NL East is down to one after its latest victory. Kurt Suzuki continues to validate the trade for him.
• With the postseason around the corner, Mike Minor is throwing great, and he shut out the Mets on Saturday.
A different Brave
Mike Minor's season split into two halves.
Stat April-June July-Sept.
Innings 85 2/3 93 2/3
Homers 18 8
BB per 9 4.0 1.7
ERA 6.20 2.21
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Minor beat the Mets:
A. Minor threw fastballs on 49 percent of his pitches, his second straight start and just the fifth of his career in which he threw more offspeed pitches than fastballs.
B. Mets hitters were 1-for-13 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending with a Minor offspeed pitch. He had two strikeouts on both his curveball and slider, the first start of his career he's had at least two strikeouts with each.
C. Minor started 16 of 21 hitters (76 percent) with a first-pitch strike, his highest percentage this season and second highest of his career.
• Ricky Nolasco had a rough final start.
NL Central
• The Cardinals lost in extra innings; they're still in the driver's seat for the second wild-card spot.
• The Milwaukee Brewers are still alive after their latest victory.
• Andrew McCutchen lightened the mood in Pittsburgh.
• The Reds are not hitting that well, writes Hal McCoy.
• The Cubs lost their 99th game.
NL West
• The Dodgers and Matt Kemp are still alive.
• Madison Bumgarner was shaky in his last start before the postseason.
• Chase Headley bashed his 30th homer.
• Trevor Cahill threw a complete game.
By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats & Info
9: Fastball strikeouts by Marco Estrada on Saturday, tied for the third most by any pitcher this season.
14: Walkoff wins by the A's this season, matching their total for the previous three years combined.
24: Home runs by Cabrera in games won by Verlander since the two became teammates in 2008. According to Elias, that's the highest such total for any batter-pitcher combination in the majors during that span.
93: Two-strike hits for Martin Prado this season, which leads the majors; he had two two-strike hits in the Braves' win Saturday.
The Orioles' September magic.
Baltimore's victory over the Boston Red Sox on Friday carried with it a significance that likely went unnoticed except by the most dedicated and exacting of baseball nerds: In defeating the Red Sox 9-1, the Orioles were owners of a positive run differential for the first time since June 24, when they beat the Washington Nationals 2-1 at home. For the three-plus months and 84 games in between, however, the O's were a team that, despite winning games, couldn't pile up more runs than their opponents.
The practical implications of Baltimore's negative run differential were minimal, of course. Despite a midseason lull that found the Orioles just two wins above .500 and 10 games behind the New York Yankees in the middle of July, the Orioles did more winning than losing for most of the summer. After that June 24 win against Washington, Baltimore stood at 41-31 (a .569 winning percentage) and 2.5 games out of first place in the American League East.
Going into today's action, the Orioles' record is 91-67 (.576) and they're tied for first place in the East. Their odds of making the postseason are better than 96 percent.
Trailing the Orioles for much of the summer, however, were constant questions regarding the sustainability of their performance. Since Bill James' work on Pythagorean (or expected) record, it's been pretty well established that the correlation between run scoring/prevention and winning games is extraordinarily strong -- and that a team's ability to score runs while preventing them is more predictive of a team's future record than present wins and losses.
Instead of excellent run scoring and prevention, much of the Orioles' success was due to their almost impossible fortune in one-run games. While an excellent bullpen and/or particularly skilled manager can provide a slight edge in such instances, it's overwhelmingly the case that a team's record in one-run games will gravitate toward the .500 mark.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has posted a 28-9 record in one-run games this season, giving it roughly 10 more wins than one might reasonably expect by that measure. While the odds suggest Baltimore would ultimately fade away, something different has happened this September: Rather than seeing their record regress back to what we'd expect given the Orioles' poor seasonal run differential, what's happened is that their underlying performance has improved dramatically.
Consider the following:
• Between April and August, the Orioles scored 554 runs while allowing 593. That sort of performance would typically produce a .469 winning percentage, or a record of 61-70. The Orioles' record through August was 73-58 (.557 winning percentage).
• In September, the Orioles have scored 147 runs while allowing just 100, a run that will typically produce about a .670 winning percentage, or a 18-9 record. That's Baltimore's record this month.
Even by a more granular measure, wins above replacement (WAR), the Orioles' improvement remains visible. During those first five months of the season, Baltimore posted a team-wide 21.6 WAR, just 26th among the league's 30 teams. In September, it has posted 9.6 WAR, the league's fifth-best mark.
In both cases, Baltimore's improvement is unrivaled. Here are the five teams whose Pythagorean winning percentages in September most greatly exceed their Pythagorean winning percentages from April through August (April through August/September/difference):
1. Orioles: .469/.670/.202
2. Los Angeles Angels: .532/.676/.143
3. Philadelphia Phillies: .480/.612/.132
4. San Francisco Giants: .531/.651/.120
5. Tampa Bay Rays: .563/.649/.086
And here are the five teams whose total September WAR most exceeds their WAR from April through August (April through August/September/difference):
1. Orioles: 21.6/9.6/21
2. Rays: 32.7/10.4/13
3. San Diego Padres: 25.8/6.6/11
4. Giants: 34.1/10.1/10
5. Houston Astros: 13.9/4.3/9
In effect, the Orioles have become in September what they merely appeared to be during the first five months of the season: namely, a playoff-caliber team.
What has led to the improvement in September? As one might expect, there are a number of factors. Here are the three most significant:
Nate McLouth, LF
When McLouth was promoted from Triple-A Norfolk, no player had made as many as 25 starts in left field for the Orioles. After Saturday's win, McLouth has now started 42 of the past 43 games for the Orioles in left. His performance during that time (220 plate appearances, 1.4 WAR) has been above-average, even for a position that requires considerable offensive production. This, of course, is from a player who was released by Pittsburgh, as a 30-year-old, at the end of May.
Manny Machado, 3B
Machado, as a hitter, has produced runs at roughly the same rate this season as Wilson Betemit, whom Machado replaced at third following his August promotion to the majors. Machado has hit for more power, while Betemit got on base more frequently. The difference is in the field. While defensive metrics are to be considered with some care, we know two things: First, Betemit, over a rather large sample, has been worth close to minus-15 runs every 150 games as a third baseman. Second, Machado moved to third base from shortstop, a more challenging position.
Tommy Hunter, RHP
Before September, right-hander Tommy Hunter made 23 appearances -- all but three of them as a starter. The results were poor: In 121 innings, he allowed 32 home runs while striking out fewer than five batters per nine innings, leading to a 5.95 ERA. After moving to a bullpen role at the beginning of the month, Hunter is now throwing 94-97 mph after sitting 91-92 as a starter. The numbers are vastly improved, too: In 12.2 innings, Hunter has posted a 12-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing zero home runs.
The Orioles could pass the Yankees and win the AL East. They could win one of the two wild-card spots and play a one-game playoff to advance to the ALDS. It's also possible that they miss the postseason altogether. But as September turns to October, at least we know that Baltimore's latest magic is indeed real.
The practical implications of Baltimore's negative run differential were minimal, of course. Despite a midseason lull that found the Orioles just two wins above .500 and 10 games behind the New York Yankees in the middle of July, the Orioles did more winning than losing for most of the summer. After that June 24 win against Washington, Baltimore stood at 41-31 (a .569 winning percentage) and 2.5 games out of first place in the American League East.
Going into today's action, the Orioles' record is 91-67 (.576) and they're tied for first place in the East. Their odds of making the postseason are better than 96 percent.
Trailing the Orioles for much of the summer, however, were constant questions regarding the sustainability of their performance. Since Bill James' work on Pythagorean (or expected) record, it's been pretty well established that the correlation between run scoring/prevention and winning games is extraordinarily strong -- and that a team's ability to score runs while preventing them is more predictive of a team's future record than present wins and losses.
Instead of excellent run scoring and prevention, much of the Orioles' success was due to their almost impossible fortune in one-run games. While an excellent bullpen and/or particularly skilled manager can provide a slight edge in such instances, it's overwhelmingly the case that a team's record in one-run games will gravitate toward the .500 mark.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has posted a 28-9 record in one-run games this season, giving it roughly 10 more wins than one might reasonably expect by that measure. While the odds suggest Baltimore would ultimately fade away, something different has happened this September: Rather than seeing their record regress back to what we'd expect given the Orioles' poor seasonal run differential, what's happened is that their underlying performance has improved dramatically.
Consider the following:
• Between April and August, the Orioles scored 554 runs while allowing 593. That sort of performance would typically produce a .469 winning percentage, or a record of 61-70. The Orioles' record through August was 73-58 (.557 winning percentage).
• In September, the Orioles have scored 147 runs while allowing just 100, a run that will typically produce about a .670 winning percentage, or a 18-9 record. That's Baltimore's record this month.
Even by a more granular measure, wins above replacement (WAR), the Orioles' improvement remains visible. During those first five months of the season, Baltimore posted a team-wide 21.6 WAR, just 26th among the league's 30 teams. In September, it has posted 9.6 WAR, the league's fifth-best mark.
In both cases, Baltimore's improvement is unrivaled. Here are the five teams whose Pythagorean winning percentages in September most greatly exceed their Pythagorean winning percentages from April through August (April through August/September/difference):
1. Orioles: .469/.670/.202
2. Los Angeles Angels: .532/.676/.143
3. Philadelphia Phillies: .480/.612/.132
4. San Francisco Giants: .531/.651/.120
5. Tampa Bay Rays: .563/.649/.086
And here are the five teams whose total September WAR most exceeds their WAR from April through August (April through August/September/difference):
1. Orioles: 21.6/9.6/21
2. Rays: 32.7/10.4/13
3. San Diego Padres: 25.8/6.6/11
4. Giants: 34.1/10.1/10
5. Houston Astros: 13.9/4.3/9
In effect, the Orioles have become in September what they merely appeared to be during the first five months of the season: namely, a playoff-caliber team.
What has led to the improvement in September? As one might expect, there are a number of factors. Here are the three most significant:
Nate McLouth, LF
When McLouth was promoted from Triple-A Norfolk, no player had made as many as 25 starts in left field for the Orioles. After Saturday's win, McLouth has now started 42 of the past 43 games for the Orioles in left. His performance during that time (220 plate appearances, 1.4 WAR) has been above-average, even for a position that requires considerable offensive production. This, of course, is from a player who was released by Pittsburgh, as a 30-year-old, at the end of May.
Manny Machado, 3B
Machado, as a hitter, has produced runs at roughly the same rate this season as Wilson Betemit, whom Machado replaced at third following his August promotion to the majors. Machado has hit for more power, while Betemit got on base more frequently. The difference is in the field. While defensive metrics are to be considered with some care, we know two things: First, Betemit, over a rather large sample, has been worth close to minus-15 runs every 150 games as a third baseman. Second, Machado moved to third base from shortstop, a more challenging position.
Tommy Hunter, RHP
Before September, right-hander Tommy Hunter made 23 appearances -- all but three of them as a starter. The results were poor: In 121 innings, he allowed 32 home runs while striking out fewer than five batters per nine innings, leading to a 5.95 ERA. After moving to a bullpen role at the beginning of the month, Hunter is now throwing 94-97 mph after sitting 91-92 as a starter. The numbers are vastly improved, too: In 12.2 innings, Hunter has posted a 12-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing zero home runs.
The Orioles could pass the Yankees and win the AL East. They could win one of the two wild-card spots and play a one-game playoff to advance to the ALDS. It's also possible that they miss the postseason altogether. But as September turns to October, at least we know that Baltimore's latest magic is indeed real.
Yadier Molina for NL MVP.
The race for the American League MVP award is stealing most of the headlines, but the National League competition has become compelling as well.
There are five players between 6.6 and 6.9 Wins Above Replacement per Baseball Reference, and except for David Wright, they are all on teams that have been in the mix for the postseason. In particular, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey and Ryan Braun are perceived favorites. Those three players are the top three in the NL in runs created, and their offensive contributions will likely push them to the top of the list of many voters.
In fact, their production has been so similar that it may be difficult to put one ahead of the others. That is why the other member of their class, the less-heralded Yadier Molina, should not surprise anyone if he wins the award.
Molina has always had a reputation as an excellent defender. He has won the last four Gold Gloves, but his victory in 2011 seemed to be more the result of his reputation than his play on the field. From 2005 to 2010, Molina saved 72 runs with his defense, which could account for more than a win per season compared to the average catcher. Over that time, he was in the top three in Defensive Runs Saved among catchers in five of the six seasons.
Yadier Molina's defensive runs saved by component, 2005-2012
Year Adj. ER SB Bunts GFP/DME Total Catcher Rank
2005 3 9 0 -1 11 3
2006 1 7 -1 7 14 1
2007 6 8 1 0 15 2
2008 -2 6 0 -1 3 7
2009 0 4 0 5 9 3
2010 6 6 1 7 20 1
2011 -6 0 -1 3 -4 22
2012 3 8 4 1 16 1
For the first time in his career, Molina cost the Cardinals runs with his defense in 2011. His -4 defensive runs saved dropped him to 22nd at catcher for the year. Specifically, Molina struggled to control the running game of his opponents. In his best seasons, Molina has thrown out between 40 and 55 percent of runners trying to steal, which is exceptional. Last year, he threw out only 25 percent of base-stealers, which was the lowest mark of his career.
One of the main reasons his defensive slump went unnoticed was because Molina had a career year offensively. For the first time, he slugged over .400 (.465). In addition, he had personal bests in home runs (14), doubles (32) and runs scored (55). His offensive improvements made up for much of his defensive lapse. The real question was what kind of player Molina would be going forward.
The Cardinals must have had an inclination when they rewarded Molina with a five-year, $75 million contract extension in the offseason. Since, Molina has continued to hit -- he is slugging .507 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 61 runs, which are even better numbers than in 2011 -- and he has rebounded, defensively, to have one of the best seasons of his career.
Molina has excelled in several facets of catcher defense. He has thrown out 31 runners attempting to steal, which is the most of any catcher. By percentage, he has thrown out 45 percent of would-be base stealers, which returns him to the level of his best seasons. As a comparison, Posey has thrown out only 26 percent of runners attempting to steal.
It is remarkable that Molina leads baseball in runners caught stealing, because they are less likely to run against him. Even though Molina is third among catchers in innings with 1,117, runners have only attempted to steal 72 bases against him. There are 19 catchers that have seen more attempts against them, and no catcher with fewer steal attempts has played more than 900 innings.
Somehow, despite the conservative approach baserunners have when he is behind the dish, Molina has still been able to pick off three runners, which is second-best in baseball. All told, Molina has saved eight runs with his stolen base prevention.
Molina has saved another run by his penchant for Good Fielding Plays and avoidance of Defensive Misplays and Errors, the predominant component of which is blocking balls in the dirt. Molina leads the position in blocks with 538, nearly 200 more than Posey's 342. Molina makes life easy on his pitchers by controlling the runners on the basepaths with his glove and his arm, and he also helps them in more subtle ways.
When Molina has been the catcher, his pitching staff has compiled an ERA of 3.60. His primary backup, Tony Cruz, has gotten an ERA of 4.30 from the same staff. That 0.70 point difference is greater than the 0.48 point difference between Posey and his primary backup, Hector Sanchez, and suggests that Molina has helped his pitchers get outs with his game calling.
In total, Molina has saved the Cardinals 16 runs with his defense this season. The closest catcher to him, defensively, has been Salvador Perez, and he has only seven defensive runs saved. The discrepancy between Molina and the next-best catcher is enough to amount to an additional win for the Cardinals over the course of a typical season.
Posey has -1 defensive runs saved. McCutchen has -6 defensive runs saved. Braun has nine defensive runs saved. Molina is well clear of the other candidates, and, as a catcher, he plays a premium position. With the positional adjustment, Molina is ranked third in the NL with 2.6 defensive WAR.
Defensively, Molina has been far more valuable to the Cardinals than the other three MVP candidates have been to their teams, and Molina is not as far behind the others in offense as they are behind him in defense. In fact, his .320 batting average, .377 on-base percentage and .885 OPS are all in the top 10 in the league.
With Albert Pujols now on the Angels, Molina has stepped up as the Cardinals' best player, both offensively and defensively. Were it not for him, the Cardinals would undoubtedly be in a worse position in the standings, and, since they are only a few games up on the Brewers and Dodgers for the final wild-card spot, Molina may have been the difference between the team making the postseason and not.
The numbers make the case: Yadier Molina should be the NL MVP.
There are five players between 6.6 and 6.9 Wins Above Replacement per Baseball Reference, and except for David Wright, they are all on teams that have been in the mix for the postseason. In particular, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey and Ryan Braun are perceived favorites. Those three players are the top three in the NL in runs created, and their offensive contributions will likely push them to the top of the list of many voters.
In fact, their production has been so similar that it may be difficult to put one ahead of the others. That is why the other member of their class, the less-heralded Yadier Molina, should not surprise anyone if he wins the award.
Molina has always had a reputation as an excellent defender. He has won the last four Gold Gloves, but his victory in 2011 seemed to be more the result of his reputation than his play on the field. From 2005 to 2010, Molina saved 72 runs with his defense, which could account for more than a win per season compared to the average catcher. Over that time, he was in the top three in Defensive Runs Saved among catchers in five of the six seasons.
Yadier Molina's defensive runs saved by component, 2005-2012
Year Adj. ER SB Bunts GFP/DME Total Catcher Rank
2005 3 9 0 -1 11 3
2006 1 7 -1 7 14 1
2007 6 8 1 0 15 2
2008 -2 6 0 -1 3 7
2009 0 4 0 5 9 3
2010 6 6 1 7 20 1
2011 -6 0 -1 3 -4 22
2012 3 8 4 1 16 1
For the first time in his career, Molina cost the Cardinals runs with his defense in 2011. His -4 defensive runs saved dropped him to 22nd at catcher for the year. Specifically, Molina struggled to control the running game of his opponents. In his best seasons, Molina has thrown out between 40 and 55 percent of runners trying to steal, which is exceptional. Last year, he threw out only 25 percent of base-stealers, which was the lowest mark of his career.
One of the main reasons his defensive slump went unnoticed was because Molina had a career year offensively. For the first time, he slugged over .400 (.465). In addition, he had personal bests in home runs (14), doubles (32) and runs scored (55). His offensive improvements made up for much of his defensive lapse. The real question was what kind of player Molina would be going forward.
The Cardinals must have had an inclination when they rewarded Molina with a five-year, $75 million contract extension in the offseason. Since, Molina has continued to hit -- he is slugging .507 with 21 home runs, 28 doubles and 61 runs, which are even better numbers than in 2011 -- and he has rebounded, defensively, to have one of the best seasons of his career.
Molina has excelled in several facets of catcher defense. He has thrown out 31 runners attempting to steal, which is the most of any catcher. By percentage, he has thrown out 45 percent of would-be base stealers, which returns him to the level of his best seasons. As a comparison, Posey has thrown out only 26 percent of runners attempting to steal.
It is remarkable that Molina leads baseball in runners caught stealing, because they are less likely to run against him. Even though Molina is third among catchers in innings with 1,117, runners have only attempted to steal 72 bases against him. There are 19 catchers that have seen more attempts against them, and no catcher with fewer steal attempts has played more than 900 innings.
Somehow, despite the conservative approach baserunners have when he is behind the dish, Molina has still been able to pick off three runners, which is second-best in baseball. All told, Molina has saved eight runs with his stolen base prevention.
Molina has saved another run by his penchant for Good Fielding Plays and avoidance of Defensive Misplays and Errors, the predominant component of which is blocking balls in the dirt. Molina leads the position in blocks with 538, nearly 200 more than Posey's 342. Molina makes life easy on his pitchers by controlling the runners on the basepaths with his glove and his arm, and he also helps them in more subtle ways.
When Molina has been the catcher, his pitching staff has compiled an ERA of 3.60. His primary backup, Tony Cruz, has gotten an ERA of 4.30 from the same staff. That 0.70 point difference is greater than the 0.48 point difference between Posey and his primary backup, Hector Sanchez, and suggests that Molina has helped his pitchers get outs with his game calling.
In total, Molina has saved the Cardinals 16 runs with his defense this season. The closest catcher to him, defensively, has been Salvador Perez, and he has only seven defensive runs saved. The discrepancy between Molina and the next-best catcher is enough to amount to an additional win for the Cardinals over the course of a typical season.
Posey has -1 defensive runs saved. McCutchen has -6 defensive runs saved. Braun has nine defensive runs saved. Molina is well clear of the other candidates, and, as a catcher, he plays a premium position. With the positional adjustment, Molina is ranked third in the NL with 2.6 defensive WAR.
Defensively, Molina has been far more valuable to the Cardinals than the other three MVP candidates have been to their teams, and Molina is not as far behind the others in offense as they are behind him in defense. In fact, his .320 batting average, .377 on-base percentage and .885 OPS are all in the top 10 in the league.
With Albert Pujols now on the Angels, Molina has stepped up as the Cardinals' best player, both offensively and defensively. Were it not for him, the Cardinals would undoubtedly be in a worse position in the standings, and, since they are only a few games up on the Brewers and Dodgers for the final wild-card spot, Molina may have been the difference between the team making the postseason and not.
The numbers make the case: Yadier Molina should be the NL MVP.
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I would have thought that the Orioles had a chance to be in the conversation for best record in the AL?
Blue Jays gave that game away yesterday and now we have the final three games of the year. I can see the Sox taking one from New York, but it is going to be tough to sweep Tampa in TB after we swept them last time.
Should be fun.
Blue Jays gave that game away yesterday and now we have the final three games of the year. I can see the Sox taking one from New York, but it is going to be tough to sweep Tampa in TB after we swept them last time.
Should be fun.
Kimbrel’s Season For the Ages.
A’s Rookie Starting Pitchers Defying Odds.
Yadier Molina is Having a Johnny Bench Season.
Craig Kimbrel is putting the finishing touches on one of the best relieved seasons in history. He has struck out 113 of his 226 batters faced this season, producing a 50% strikeout rate that nobody with 30+ innings in a season has matched or exceeded.
In fact, nobody has ever thrown 30+ innings with a 45% strikeout rate either. Kimbrel isn’t merely en route to establishing a new record. He is about to blow right by the existing record, which was set in 2003 by Eric Gagne. Gagne struck out 44.7% of the opposition in his Cy Young campaign. Only two other relievers have even topped 44% throughout history: Aroldis Chapman‘s 44.4% rate this season, and Kenley Jansen‘s 44.0% rate last year. While relievers face such a small sample of batters, and another strikeout or two could materially affect the strikeout rates in question, Kimbrel still has a commanding lead. He has simply been unhittable this season and may have established the new benchmark for evaluating relief pitching performance in this era.
Kimbrel has thrown 61.1 innings over 61 appearances this year — both of which are down relative to his oft-cited over usage last season — and has allowed a whopping 26 hits. He has a .245 BABIP against and a 92.6% strand rate. His latter rate leads the league by a full two percentage points. He has also only walked 14 batters this season, which represents the third straight year in which his walk rate dropped. His walk rate was 18.2% in 2010, 10.5% last year, and now 6.2%, which is low before even comparing it to a gaudy 50% strikeout rate. His 8.07 K/BB ratio ranks 2nd all-time among pitchers with at least 30 innings and a 40% strikeout rate: Sergio Romo‘s 70 punchouts against five walks last season has him beat.
One of the biggest reasons Kimbrel wasn’t going to succeed like this was his control: he didn’t have much of it as he progressed through the minors. Whether it be his own work, the tutelage of Roger McDowell, or both, Kimbrel has become a strikeout juggernaut that rarely gives up hits, limits free passes, and strands almost everyone that reaches.
His 1.03 ERA is far and away the lowest among senior circuit relievers. Chapman is in 2nd place at 1.55. Kimbrel also has a ridiculous 0.84 FIP to his name, which is not only substantially lower than Chapman’s 2nd-place 1.51 mark, but happens to be the lowest of all-time. Kimbrel’s 0.84 FIP narrowly edges Gagne’s 0.85 FIP in 2003.
Let’s not stop at the raw rates either, as changes in the scoring environment have made it tougher to score runs over the last few years. Context is key in any analysis and production relative to the league is more important than quoting raw numbers. Kimbrel has a 26 ERA- and a 22 FIP-. Gagne had a 30 ERA- and a 20 FIP- that season. Gagne logged more innings in 2003 — 82.1 to Kimbrel’s current total of 61.1 — but the two were essentially equals from a rate perspective.
Kimbrel has also kept balls on the ground at a 48% clip, up from last year’s 44% rate, and way up from his 28% rate as a rookie. He isn’t an extreme groundballer, but his rate is solid, especially in the context of his other rates. It has been historically tough to put a ball in play against Kimbrel this season, and almost half of the batters who didn’t strikeout or walk batted the ball on the ground. Be it weak contact or hitting the ball directly at fielders, a .245 BABIP with ~50% grounders is a very fruitful combination.
It’s difficult to evaluate relievers with WAR, especially across different eras, given the overall change in reliever usage. Relievers pitched more even 10-12 years ago, let alone 20-25 years ago, and WAR is a counting metric. Gagne’s 4.5 WAR is over a full win greater than Kimbrel’s 3.4 WAR, but that shouldn’t, in any way, invalidate what he has done this season. When great pitchers throw more innings, they produce more overall value.
However, a closer look at the post-1995 reliever leaderboards shows just how much per-inning value Kimbrel has generated this season. There have been 10 relievers with 3.4+ WAR in a season since 1995 and, aside from Kimbrel’s current season, the other nine ranged from 74.2 to 107.2 innings. That Kimbrel has produced 3.4 WAR with 13 fewer innings than anyone else in that leaderboard is remarkable.
Strictly using WAR, Kimbrel’s season might not seem like one for the ages. But he is literally doing things that nobody else in baseball history has either done, or come close to doing. That is the mark of a truly special pitcher, and a truly special season.
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In fact, nobody has ever thrown 30+ innings with a 45% strikeout rate either. Kimbrel isn’t merely en route to establishing a new record. He is about to blow right by the existing record, which was set in 2003 by Eric Gagne. Gagne struck out 44.7% of the opposition in his Cy Young campaign. Only two other relievers have even topped 44% throughout history: Aroldis Chapman‘s 44.4% rate this season, and Kenley Jansen‘s 44.0% rate last year. While relievers face such a small sample of batters, and another strikeout or two could materially affect the strikeout rates in question, Kimbrel still has a commanding lead. He has simply been unhittable this season and may have established the new benchmark for evaluating relief pitching performance in this era.
Kimbrel has thrown 61.1 innings over 61 appearances this year — both of which are down relative to his oft-cited over usage last season — and has allowed a whopping 26 hits. He has a .245 BABIP against and a 92.6% strand rate. His latter rate leads the league by a full two percentage points. He has also only walked 14 batters this season, which represents the third straight year in which his walk rate dropped. His walk rate was 18.2% in 2010, 10.5% last year, and now 6.2%, which is low before even comparing it to a gaudy 50% strikeout rate. His 8.07 K/BB ratio ranks 2nd all-time among pitchers with at least 30 innings and a 40% strikeout rate: Sergio Romo‘s 70 punchouts against five walks last season has him beat.
One of the biggest reasons Kimbrel wasn’t going to succeed like this was his control: he didn’t have much of it as he progressed through the minors. Whether it be his own work, the tutelage of Roger McDowell, or both, Kimbrel has become a strikeout juggernaut that rarely gives up hits, limits free passes, and strands almost everyone that reaches.
His 1.03 ERA is far and away the lowest among senior circuit relievers. Chapman is in 2nd place at 1.55. Kimbrel also has a ridiculous 0.84 FIP to his name, which is not only substantially lower than Chapman’s 2nd-place 1.51 mark, but happens to be the lowest of all-time. Kimbrel’s 0.84 FIP narrowly edges Gagne’s 0.85 FIP in 2003.
Let’s not stop at the raw rates either, as changes in the scoring environment have made it tougher to score runs over the last few years. Context is key in any analysis and production relative to the league is more important than quoting raw numbers. Kimbrel has a 26 ERA- and a 22 FIP-. Gagne had a 30 ERA- and a 20 FIP- that season. Gagne logged more innings in 2003 — 82.1 to Kimbrel’s current total of 61.1 — but the two were essentially equals from a rate perspective.
Kimbrel has also kept balls on the ground at a 48% clip, up from last year’s 44% rate, and way up from his 28% rate as a rookie. He isn’t an extreme groundballer, but his rate is solid, especially in the context of his other rates. It has been historically tough to put a ball in play against Kimbrel this season, and almost half of the batters who didn’t strikeout or walk batted the ball on the ground. Be it weak contact or hitting the ball directly at fielders, a .245 BABIP with ~50% grounders is a very fruitful combination.
It’s difficult to evaluate relievers with WAR, especially across different eras, given the overall change in reliever usage. Relievers pitched more even 10-12 years ago, let alone 20-25 years ago, and WAR is a counting metric. Gagne’s 4.5 WAR is over a full win greater than Kimbrel’s 3.4 WAR, but that shouldn’t, in any way, invalidate what he has done this season. When great pitchers throw more innings, they produce more overall value.
However, a closer look at the post-1995 reliever leaderboards shows just how much per-inning value Kimbrel has generated this season. There have been 10 relievers with 3.4+ WAR in a season since 1995 and, aside from Kimbrel’s current season, the other nine ranged from 74.2 to 107.2 innings. That Kimbrel has produced 3.4 WAR with 13 fewer innings than anyone else in that leaderboard is remarkable.
Strictly using WAR, Kimbrel’s season might not seem like one for the ages. But he is literally doing things that nobody else in baseball history has either done, or come close to doing. That is the mark of a truly special pitcher, and a truly special season.
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A’s Rookie Starting Pitchers Defying Odds.
The other day, a clerical error on Major League Baseball’s part gave Athletics pitcher Travis Blackley another chance to be a freshman. As a result, the A’s — who had already received more than 60 starts from rookie pitchers — moved even further up the leaderboard of games started by rookie pitchers. But while many rookie-laden pitching rotations stumble, Oakland has gotten some of its finest efforts this season from its group of youngsters.
Since 1947, there have been 85 teams who have had rookies start at least 60 games. Five of those teams were in their expansion season: the 1961 Angels, 1962 Mets, 1969 Padres, 1969 Expos and 1977 Blue Jays. Three teams reached the postseason: the 1952 Dodgers, 1984 Royals and 2003 Giants. It’s this latter group that the A’s and their now six rookie starters hope to join.
Even if Oakland doesn’t reach the postseason, the team has already defied some pretty long odds. These 85 teams averaged only a .431 winning percentage, which is essentially a 70-win season. At a minimum, Oakland will become one of 13 teams in this group to compile a winning record — and the team;s winning percentage will be either the third- or fourth-best among the group. Even though veterans started six of the team’s first eight games, the rotation is all rookies now.
Veterans Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon led the rotation into Japan this March, and then started four of the first six games stateside. But ever since, rookies have dominated the A’s rotation. Really though, it took a while for them to get to the big leagues. Rookies Tommy Milone and Graham Godfrey started the first two games that didn’t involve either McCarthy or Colon. This makes Milone the only wire-to-wire rookie Oakland starter, as mediocrity — as well as a blister problem — conspired to torpedo Godfrey’s season after just five appearances. When Godfrey was demoted the first time, Jarrod Parker came up. Because of that, the A’s essentially had two rookies in the rotation all season. Blackley didn’t hop across the Bay until mid-May, A.J. Griffin arrived in late June and Dan Straily didn’t make his major-league debut until August. Since Straily’s first start though, rookies have started 68% of Oakland’s games. And now with McCarthy and Brett Anderson injured — and Colon suspended — rookies have started the team’s past eight games, and 17 of its past 20.
Much of the success of this rookie class rests with Parker, but it’s not as if he’s breaking new ground this season. His 83 FIP- doesn’t show up until the seventh page of the rookie leaderboard that dates back to 1947. Instead of one rookie leading the way, it’s been a team effort in Oakland. And now this young crew holds their team’s playoff fate in their hands.
That runs in stark contrast to the 2003 Giants. That season’s Giants overcame their World Series hangover to reach the postseason, and rookies Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth and Kevin Correia helped get them there. But Williams was the only one who pitched in the postseason, and he logged only the two innings following Jose Cruz’s dropped fly ball, and even though it was a whole new game, San Francisco was probably dead in the water already.
We find a similar pattern for the 1984 Royals. Mark Gubicza, Bret Saberhagen and Danny Jackson contributed 58 of the team’s starts that season (and Frank Wills chipped in with five), but in the ’84 ALCS, Saberhagen was the only one who pitched. Perhaps Gubicza or Jackson would have pitched had the series continued, but the Royals — who had no business being in the playoffs, look at how bad the AL West was in ’84 — were quickly dispatched by the Tigers.
In ’52, the Brooklyn Dodgers had eight rookie pitchers start games, though five of the eight started five or fewer games. One of those five was rookie Joe Black. Black, primarily a reliever that season and throughout his career, started just two games in the regular season, but was trusted with starting Games 1, 4 and 7 of the World Series that season. The move paid off too, sort of. Black was tagged with the loss in two of his three starts, including Game 7, but the eventual 1952 National League Rookie of the Year only allowed 23 baserunners in 21.1 innings — hard to say it was his fault. Fellow rookie Billy Loes started Game 6, giving rookies four of the seven starts. That is probably the closest parallel, at least in terms of number of games started to this year’s Oakland team. And it still doesn’t do Oakland justice.
While those teams made the playoffs, as the A’s hope to, that doesn’t mean they were necessarily the best among rookie-heavy teams. The ’75 Giants got over with John Montefusco (7.0 WAR) and Pete Falcone (2.0). The ’69 Royals had four rookie starters each compile a FIP of 3.66 or lower and a WAR of 1.7 or higher. In 1968, the famous rookie card brothers, Nolan Ryan and Jerry Koosman, helped the Mets compile the best ERA (2.42) and FIP (2.92) among this 85-team sample. And that’s not even the best season for Mets rookie hurlers. That honor goes to the 1984 team fronted by Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez. No matter how you want to slice it, Gooden’s ’84 is going to come out as the best rookie starting pitcher season since ’47, and probably of all-time. But Darling and Fernandez weren’t exactly chopped liver either for the 90-win, second-place Mets. This year’s A’s don’t have a star like Gooden, but they will end up being a similar quality team. The only difference is now there are extra playoff spots, so Oakland will get to play one more game. And it will be started by a rookie.
The A’s have relied on rookie starting pitchers like few other teams, and they have succeeded to boot. That five rookie pitchers are poised to lead a team into the postseason is basically unprecedented. Only three teams who were so reliant on rookie starters in the regular season reached the postseason, and two of them didn’t lean very heavily on them during their abbreviated playoff runs. Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, Travis Blackley and Dan Straily may not be the most imposing rotation in history, but let’s take a moment to appreciate just how rare their accomplishment would be.
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Since 1947, there have been 85 teams who have had rookies start at least 60 games. Five of those teams were in their expansion season: the 1961 Angels, 1962 Mets, 1969 Padres, 1969 Expos and 1977 Blue Jays. Three teams reached the postseason: the 1952 Dodgers, 1984 Royals and 2003 Giants. It’s this latter group that the A’s and their now six rookie starters hope to join.
Even if Oakland doesn’t reach the postseason, the team has already defied some pretty long odds. These 85 teams averaged only a .431 winning percentage, which is essentially a 70-win season. At a minimum, Oakland will become one of 13 teams in this group to compile a winning record — and the team;s winning percentage will be either the third- or fourth-best among the group. Even though veterans started six of the team’s first eight games, the rotation is all rookies now.
Veterans Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon led the rotation into Japan this March, and then started four of the first six games stateside. But ever since, rookies have dominated the A’s rotation. Really though, it took a while for them to get to the big leagues. Rookies Tommy Milone and Graham Godfrey started the first two games that didn’t involve either McCarthy or Colon. This makes Milone the only wire-to-wire rookie Oakland starter, as mediocrity — as well as a blister problem — conspired to torpedo Godfrey’s season after just five appearances. When Godfrey was demoted the first time, Jarrod Parker came up. Because of that, the A’s essentially had two rookies in the rotation all season. Blackley didn’t hop across the Bay until mid-May, A.J. Griffin arrived in late June and Dan Straily didn’t make his major-league debut until August. Since Straily’s first start though, rookies have started 68% of Oakland’s games. And now with McCarthy and Brett Anderson injured — and Colon suspended — rookies have started the team’s past eight games, and 17 of its past 20.
Much of the success of this rookie class rests with Parker, but it’s not as if he’s breaking new ground this season. His 83 FIP- doesn’t show up until the seventh page of the rookie leaderboard that dates back to 1947. Instead of one rookie leading the way, it’s been a team effort in Oakland. And now this young crew holds their team’s playoff fate in their hands.
That runs in stark contrast to the 2003 Giants. That season’s Giants overcame their World Series hangover to reach the postseason, and rookies Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth and Kevin Correia helped get them there. But Williams was the only one who pitched in the postseason, and he logged only the two innings following Jose Cruz’s dropped fly ball, and even though it was a whole new game, San Francisco was probably dead in the water already.
We find a similar pattern for the 1984 Royals. Mark Gubicza, Bret Saberhagen and Danny Jackson contributed 58 of the team’s starts that season (and Frank Wills chipped in with five), but in the ’84 ALCS, Saberhagen was the only one who pitched. Perhaps Gubicza or Jackson would have pitched had the series continued, but the Royals — who had no business being in the playoffs, look at how bad the AL West was in ’84 — were quickly dispatched by the Tigers.
In ’52, the Brooklyn Dodgers had eight rookie pitchers start games, though five of the eight started five or fewer games. One of those five was rookie Joe Black. Black, primarily a reliever that season and throughout his career, started just two games in the regular season, but was trusted with starting Games 1, 4 and 7 of the World Series that season. The move paid off too, sort of. Black was tagged with the loss in two of his three starts, including Game 7, but the eventual 1952 National League Rookie of the Year only allowed 23 baserunners in 21.1 innings — hard to say it was his fault. Fellow rookie Billy Loes started Game 6, giving rookies four of the seven starts. That is probably the closest parallel, at least in terms of number of games started to this year’s Oakland team. And it still doesn’t do Oakland justice.
While those teams made the playoffs, as the A’s hope to, that doesn’t mean they were necessarily the best among rookie-heavy teams. The ’75 Giants got over with John Montefusco (7.0 WAR) and Pete Falcone (2.0). The ’69 Royals had four rookie starters each compile a FIP of 3.66 or lower and a WAR of 1.7 or higher. In 1968, the famous rookie card brothers, Nolan Ryan and Jerry Koosman, helped the Mets compile the best ERA (2.42) and FIP (2.92) among this 85-team sample. And that’s not even the best season for Mets rookie hurlers. That honor goes to the 1984 team fronted by Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez. No matter how you want to slice it, Gooden’s ’84 is going to come out as the best rookie starting pitcher season since ’47, and probably of all-time. But Darling and Fernandez weren’t exactly chopped liver either for the 90-win, second-place Mets. This year’s A’s don’t have a star like Gooden, but they will end up being a similar quality team. The only difference is now there are extra playoff spots, so Oakland will get to play one more game. And it will be started by a rookie.
The A’s have relied on rookie starting pitchers like few other teams, and they have succeeded to boot. That five rookie pitchers are poised to lead a team into the postseason is basically unprecedented. Only three teams who were so reliant on rookie starters in the regular season reached the postseason, and two of them didn’t lean very heavily on them during their abbreviated playoff runs. Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, Travis Blackley and Dan Straily may not be the most imposing rotation in history, but let’s take a moment to appreciate just how rare their accomplishment would be.
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Yadier Molina is Having a Johnny Bench Season.
Yadier Molina has always been an amazing defensive catcher, but like most amazing defensive catchers, he hasn’t always been a very good hitter. In fact, for the first three years of his career, he was a pretty terrible hitter, and then he spent four years as an average-ish hitter before his breakout season last year. Well, we thought last year was his breakout season anyway. This year is Breakout 2.0, as Molina has put himself among not just the elite hitting catchers in the game, but has produced at a level that is outstanding for any position. And in the process, he’s having one of the best all-around catcher seasons in baseball history.
There have always been catchers who can hit but can’t throw, and throw but can’t hit, but there haven’t been many who have hit and thrown like Molina has this year. Below is a table of every season in Major League history where a catcher posted both a 140 wRC+ or better and threw out 45% or more of attempted base stealers.
Name Season PA wRC+ SB CS CS%
Joe Torre 1966 614 156 36 34 49%
Johnny Bench 1972 652 155 24 31 56%
Elston Howard 1961 482 149 20 20 50%
Johnny Bench 1970 671 144 32 30 48%
Darrell Porter 1979 679 144 64 57 47%
Ed Bailey 1956 446 144 30 25 45%
Yadier Molina 2012 541 143 38 34 47%
Carlton Fisk 1977 632 143 60 50 45%
Rick Wilkins 1993 500 142 66 56 46%
Johnny Bench 1975 605 142 32 27 46%
Johnny Bench 1974 708 141 37 35 49%
Gene Tenace 1979 582 141 42 38 48%
This is only the 12th time that combination has ever been achieved, and because Bench did it four times, Molina’s only the ninth different catcher to ever pull this off. While invoking Bench’s name might seem like heresy, the reality is that Molina’s 2012 season fits perfectly into Bench’s peak.
Using the custom leaderboards here on the site, we can put all of Molina and Bench’s individual seasons together on one page, then sort as we see fit. Between them, they’ve played in 26 different seasons – Molina’s 2012 ranks 1st in BA, 2nd in OBP, 6th in SLG, 5th in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+. While Molina can’t quite keep up with what Bench did in 1972 — it might be the best catcher season of all time — his overall performance is essentially a perfect match for any other season of Bench’s career. This year, Yadier Molina is basically performing at Johnny Bench’s normal levels during the prime of his career.
Buster Posey is probably going to win the NL MVP award, and he’s a terrific candidate. Unlike in the AL, there is no real clear cut best player, and you can make strong, valid cases for Posey, Ryan Braun, or Andrew McCutchen. However, given that we know that catcher defense is still something of a black box, and all of the evidence available points to Molina being the best defensive catcher in the game, we shouldn’t overlook Molina as a legitimate contender for the award. He’s hit a little less than the others — though, he still ranks 5th in the NL in wRC+ — and played a little less than Posey, but it’s not that much of a stretch to believe that Molina could have made up the offensive gap with his defensive performance this year.
If you just look at Batting Runs, the totals for the four NL MVP contenders are:
Braun: +55.6
McCutchen: +48.6
Posey: +43.1
Molina: +30.8
Molina’s 25 runs behind Braun, 18 runs behind McCutchen, and 12 runs behind Posey as a hitter. We know that it’s much tougher to find a good hitting catcher than it is to find a good hitting outfielder, so Molina and Posey get a boost from the positional adjustment, while Braun takes a bit of a hit because of where he plays. Including Batting and Position together, the list changes.
McCutchen: +50.8
Posey: +49.1
Braun: +48.9
Molina: +40.3
Now the gap from top to bottom is only 10 runs, with the top three in a virtual tie and Molina lagging just a bit behind. UZR likes Braun’s defense more than McCutchen’s (relative to their peers, which we’ve already adjusted for), which is why he’s the NL leader in WAR, but of course there is some variance in single season defensive data, and Braun hasn’t historically been known as much of a glove guy. But, for us, the question is more along the lines of whether we think Molina could be as many as +10 runs better defensively than the three guys ahead of him.
I see no reason why we wouldn’t consider that a possibility. The range of defensive performance at other positions over significant periods of time has proven to be about +15 to -15, and there isn’t much reason to think that catcher defense matters less than, say, third base defense. If anything, we’d probably want to default to it mattering more, since they are also interacting with the pitcher on balls not in play. And, while we’re limited to currently measuring things like blocking pitches in the dirt and controlling the running game, we know Molina is amazing at those things.
The NL has averaged one stolen base attempt per 10 innings this year, and they’ve been successful 73.5% of the time. Against Molina, the league has averaged one stolen base attempt per 16 innings and been successful just 53 percent of the time. In other words, the only guys trying to steal against Molina are those who are really good at taking second base, and he’s still gunning them down at a league best rate. Meanwhile, runners have taken off against Posey once every eight innings and have been successful 70% of the time.
Pitchers have an affect on SB/CS as well, so maybe we don’t want to lay all of the blame for team’s aggression against SF on Posey, but he’s certainly not deterring the running game in any significant way, nor is he taking advantage of all those extra opportunities to create more outs for his team. Opponents have stolen 51 more bases off Posey than off Molina, and yet he only has two additional caught stealings.
Even if you only give each catcher half credit for the bases advanced and the outs they’ve created, you’re still looking at a net of 25 fewer stolen bases for Molina. The average run value of a steal is about +0.25 runs, so again, you’re looking at a minimum of a six runs difference. If you think the credit for SB/CS should be 100%, then you’re looking at a 12 run difference. In this one area, Molina makes up almost all of the offensive gap between he and Posey.
And it’s not much of a stretch to think that he’s probably better at other parts of catcher defense that we can’t easily measure as well. While Dave Duncan got most of the credit for being the guru who turned mediocre pitchers into aces, he’s been away from the team this year and Kyle Lohse has still put together the a ridiculously great season seemingly out of nowhere. Even without Chris Carpenter, and with Jaime Garcia missing a good chunk of the summer, the Cardinals pitching staff has still been one of the better groups in baseball. Molina is part of that, even if we don’t know exactly how much of that he’s caused.
I don’t have any problem with anyone deciding that they prefer Braun, McCutchen, or Posey for the MVP. They’re all great candidates. Let’s just not ignore the fact that we essentially have a modern day Johnny Bench this year, and Yadier Molina is a pretty great candidate himself.
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There have always been catchers who can hit but can’t throw, and throw but can’t hit, but there haven’t been many who have hit and thrown like Molina has this year. Below is a table of every season in Major League history where a catcher posted both a 140 wRC+ or better and threw out 45% or more of attempted base stealers.
Name Season PA wRC+ SB CS CS%
Joe Torre 1966 614 156 36 34 49%
Johnny Bench 1972 652 155 24 31 56%
Elston Howard 1961 482 149 20 20 50%
Johnny Bench 1970 671 144 32 30 48%
Darrell Porter 1979 679 144 64 57 47%
Ed Bailey 1956 446 144 30 25 45%
Yadier Molina 2012 541 143 38 34 47%
Carlton Fisk 1977 632 143 60 50 45%
Rick Wilkins 1993 500 142 66 56 46%
Johnny Bench 1975 605 142 32 27 46%
Johnny Bench 1974 708 141 37 35 49%
Gene Tenace 1979 582 141 42 38 48%
This is only the 12th time that combination has ever been achieved, and because Bench did it four times, Molina’s only the ninth different catcher to ever pull this off. While invoking Bench’s name might seem like heresy, the reality is that Molina’s 2012 season fits perfectly into Bench’s peak.
Using the custom leaderboards here on the site, we can put all of Molina and Bench’s individual seasons together on one page, then sort as we see fit. Between them, they’ve played in 26 different seasons – Molina’s 2012 ranks 1st in BA, 2nd in OBP, 6th in SLG, 5th in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+. While Molina can’t quite keep up with what Bench did in 1972 — it might be the best catcher season of all time — his overall performance is essentially a perfect match for any other season of Bench’s career. This year, Yadier Molina is basically performing at Johnny Bench’s normal levels during the prime of his career.
Buster Posey is probably going to win the NL MVP award, and he’s a terrific candidate. Unlike in the AL, there is no real clear cut best player, and you can make strong, valid cases for Posey, Ryan Braun, or Andrew McCutchen. However, given that we know that catcher defense is still something of a black box, and all of the evidence available points to Molina being the best defensive catcher in the game, we shouldn’t overlook Molina as a legitimate contender for the award. He’s hit a little less than the others — though, he still ranks 5th in the NL in wRC+ — and played a little less than Posey, but it’s not that much of a stretch to believe that Molina could have made up the offensive gap with his defensive performance this year.
If you just look at Batting Runs, the totals for the four NL MVP contenders are:
Braun: +55.6
McCutchen: +48.6
Posey: +43.1
Molina: +30.8
Molina’s 25 runs behind Braun, 18 runs behind McCutchen, and 12 runs behind Posey as a hitter. We know that it’s much tougher to find a good hitting catcher than it is to find a good hitting outfielder, so Molina and Posey get a boost from the positional adjustment, while Braun takes a bit of a hit because of where he plays. Including Batting and Position together, the list changes.
McCutchen: +50.8
Posey: +49.1
Braun: +48.9
Molina: +40.3
Now the gap from top to bottom is only 10 runs, with the top three in a virtual tie and Molina lagging just a bit behind. UZR likes Braun’s defense more than McCutchen’s (relative to their peers, which we’ve already adjusted for), which is why he’s the NL leader in WAR, but of course there is some variance in single season defensive data, and Braun hasn’t historically been known as much of a glove guy. But, for us, the question is more along the lines of whether we think Molina could be as many as +10 runs better defensively than the three guys ahead of him.
I see no reason why we wouldn’t consider that a possibility. The range of defensive performance at other positions over significant periods of time has proven to be about +15 to -15, and there isn’t much reason to think that catcher defense matters less than, say, third base defense. If anything, we’d probably want to default to it mattering more, since they are also interacting with the pitcher on balls not in play. And, while we’re limited to currently measuring things like blocking pitches in the dirt and controlling the running game, we know Molina is amazing at those things.
The NL has averaged one stolen base attempt per 10 innings this year, and they’ve been successful 73.5% of the time. Against Molina, the league has averaged one stolen base attempt per 16 innings and been successful just 53 percent of the time. In other words, the only guys trying to steal against Molina are those who are really good at taking second base, and he’s still gunning them down at a league best rate. Meanwhile, runners have taken off against Posey once every eight innings and have been successful 70% of the time.
Pitchers have an affect on SB/CS as well, so maybe we don’t want to lay all of the blame for team’s aggression against SF on Posey, but he’s certainly not deterring the running game in any significant way, nor is he taking advantage of all those extra opportunities to create more outs for his team. Opponents have stolen 51 more bases off Posey than off Molina, and yet he only has two additional caught stealings.
Even if you only give each catcher half credit for the bases advanced and the outs they’ve created, you’re still looking at a net of 25 fewer stolen bases for Molina. The average run value of a steal is about +0.25 runs, so again, you’re looking at a minimum of a six runs difference. If you think the credit for SB/CS should be 100%, then you’re looking at a 12 run difference. In this one area, Molina makes up almost all of the offensive gap between he and Posey.
And it’s not much of a stretch to think that he’s probably better at other parts of catcher defense that we can’t easily measure as well. While Dave Duncan got most of the credit for being the guru who turned mediocre pitchers into aces, he’s been away from the team this year and Kyle Lohse has still put together the a ridiculously great season seemingly out of nowhere. Even without Chris Carpenter, and with Jaime Garcia missing a good chunk of the summer, the Cardinals pitching staff has still been one of the better groups in baseball. Molina is part of that, even if we don’t know exactly how much of that he’s caused.
I don’t have any problem with anyone deciding that they prefer Braun, McCutchen, or Posey for the MVP. They’re all great candidates. Let’s just not ignore the fact that we essentially have a modern day Johnny Bench this year, and Yadier Molina is a pretty great candidate himself.
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I think the O's need to win the last 3 games & the Yanks to lose 2 to clinch the division...Think that's what I heard on the radio. Sucks because the Yanks have Teixeira. Not sure how at 32 he's going to look after being off what 2 months?
Buck should win AL manager of the year, but Joe Girardi has done a rock solid job this year...Just sayin'.
What are the odds Valentine is coming back? He should've never left Bristol...
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Red Sox desereve everything they are getting from running the Manager that brought them a couple of championships out of town. They used to be a likeable franchise and have now turned into everything they once stood against.
Hopefully they can muster up some competitive edge to knock off the Yanks. If the O's and Yankees finished tied.....they will have a one game playoff to decide the dvision.
I don't like Chen pitching for the Orioles, he keeps the ball up too much and gives up too many HRs. Heard the O's had to have an emergency landing on their plane yesterday after a small fire broke out on board.
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- Jul 18, 2012
O's, man
Woke up to great news this AM that the O's clinched at the minimum, a WC berth. **** that...we're going for the division. Hopefully the Sox relish the idea of actually playing a spoiler here and play a good series vs. the Yanks.
Was rocking some O's gear all weekend while I was upstate for a wedding. I love the fact that random people on the street were more than willing to stop and chop it up about O's baseball.
Woke up to great news this AM that the O's clinched at the minimum, a WC berth. **** that...we're going for the division. Hopefully the Sox relish the idea of actually playing a spoiler here and play a good series vs. the Yanks.
Was rocking some O's gear all weekend while I was upstate for a wedding. I love the fact that random people on the street were more than willing to stop and chop it up about O's baseball.
- 25,831
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- Jul 30, 2011
O's, man
Woke up to great news this AM that the O's clinched at the minimum, a WC berth. **** that...we're going for the division. Hopefully the Sox relish the idea of actually playing a spoiler here and play a good series vs. the Yanks.
Was rocking some O's gear all weekend while I was upstate for a wedding. I love the fact that random people on the street were more than willing to stop and chop it up about O's baseball.
Since the Steelers had a bye week, I had an O's fitted on all weekend. I'm so glad they went back to the cartoon bird with the white front, orange bill, black hat. Old school like the old school.
Maybe the apocalypse is coming since the Nats & the O's are going to post season with some much momentum....
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