2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Originally Posted by FRANCHISE 55

Did Verlander ever give an explanation for that tomfoolery?

i think it was a pickoff attempt and he changed his mind midway thru but it was gonna be a balk 
so he decided to go to home plate with it to prevent said balk
laugh.gif
  pretty much overthinking

oh btw why in gods name do the the jays and  bosox have a 8pst/11est am start time?

the earliest i can recall a game starting is 10pst/1est  tho those are all cubs day game start times so eh might of missed something
 
Originally Posted by FRANCHISE 55

Did Verlander ever give an explanation for that tomfoolery?

i think it was a pickoff attempt and he changed his mind midway thru but it was gonna be a balk 
so he decided to go to home plate with it to prevent said balk
laugh.gif
  pretty much overthinking

oh btw why in gods name do the the jays and  bosox have a 8pst/11est am start time?

the earliest i can recall a game starting is 10pst/1est  tho those are all cubs day game start times so eh might of missed something
 
^^

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriots'_Day

The Boston Red Sox have traditionally been scheduled to play at home in Fenway Park on Patriots' Day every year since 1959. The games were postponed due to bad weather in 1959, 1961, 1965, 1967, and 1984, and canceled in 1995 during the players' strike. Since 1968 the games have started early, in the morning, around 11:00 am. The early start to these games usually resulted in the game ending just as the marathon is heading through Kenmore Square. However, since 2007 the marathon has started between 9:30 am and 10:00 am, resulting in the racers going through Kenmore towards the middle of the Red Sox game.[6]
 
^^

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriots'_Day

The Boston Red Sox have traditionally been scheduled to play at home in Fenway Park on Patriots' Day every year since 1959. The games were postponed due to bad weather in 1959, 1961, 1965, 1967, and 1984, and canceled in 1995 during the players' strike. Since 1968 the games have started early, in the morning, around 11:00 am. The early start to these games usually resulted in the game ending just as the marathon is heading through Kenmore Square. However, since 2007 the marathon has started between 9:30 am and 10:00 am, resulting in the racers going through Kenmore towards the middle of the Red Sox game.[6]
 
Spoiler [+]
The Seattle Mariners were held scoreless Saturday, the latest sign that their offense may well be worse than it was last season. Already this year, manager Eric Wedge -- who had choice words for his players after the whitewash -- has written Adam Kennedy's name into the cleanup spot in his batting order, because he doesn't have many power hitters and he's presumably trying to give Justin Smoak some room to breathe.

The OPS of the Mariners' cleanup hitters is .501, a number augmented by exactly zero home runs. Seattle's run differential so far this year stands at minus-33, the worst in the majors. Meanwhile, Mariners executives are bracing themselves for some brutal attendance figures, Larry Stone writes.

All of this failure will fuel two inevitable questions.

No. 1: Will general manager Jack Zduriencik survive?
The Chone Figgins signing hasn't panned out for the Mariners, for sure, and Brandon Morrow thrived in his first season after Seattle traded him. But beyond those two moves, it's hard to identify many mistakes -- because Zduriencik hasn't had a lot of flexibility to spend money, given the contracts of Carlos Silva, et al, and because the organization had so little talent when he arrived. What has skewed the perception of Zduriencik's time with the team is that fragile success of the Mariners in 2009, when Seattle managed to win 85 games despite ranking 28th in runs scored.

If the Mariners had won 70 games that year, then the perception of the task in front of Zduriencik would be more transparent: He is essentially in the same place that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is, trying to accumulate enough high-end talent to turn Seattle around. The Mariners' payroll is significantly higher than that of the Pirates, but remember, 35 percent of that is tied into the iconic Ichiro Suzuki, who is paid high-impact dollars but is not really an impact player (he currently ranks 56th in OPS among outfielders), and to the Silva/Milton Bradley contracts, linked to a signing by the previous regime.

A rival general manager mused over Seattle's situation the other day and noted that there is talent coming together. Within 18 months, he said, the Mariners could have a core of Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Anthony Rendon (if he falls to the No. 2 pick in the June draft), Smoak and Dustin Ackley. "That's pretty good," the GM concluded. "There is progress."

But this summer will be ugly: The losses will mount, the seats will be empty and time will tell whether that will gnaw on the club's leadership to the point that Zduriencik becomes a scapegoat.

Question No. 2: Will Hernandez run out of patience?
Zack Greinke essentially forced his way out of Kansas City with his indifference last summer, and as Greinke slogged along through a mediocre season, King Felix was a model of competitiveness, battling opponents with virtually no run support, maintaining his focus so well that he was eventually rewarded with the AL Cy Young Award. It was, in many respects, one of the great performances we have seen in the past decade.

But Hernandez is not pitching well so far this year, and some rival scouts are detecting early frustration in the right-hander -- they wonder if the losing and the constant stress of pitching with no margin for error, and mostly pitching for nothing but pride, is taking its toll on him. Hernandez has a 4.33 ERA after four starts and opponents are hitting .282 against him. "He looks distracted to me," said one scout. "Something is not right."

What rival scouts and executives see in Hernandez's intensity and effort really doesn't matter; what matters is what Seattle is seeing from him, daily. In a conversation in early February, Hernandez -- one of two Mariners who lives in Seattle in the offseason -- said flatly that he's committed to the organization and wants to do everything he can to help the team win.

If the Mariners' decision-makers determine for themselves that Hernandez is getting fed up and bored with the losing, then the best time to trade him will be this summer. His value is extraordinary, and similarly, their trade leverage will never be higher, because of what he would immediately mean to any interested team, whether it be the Yankees or the Braves (who could put together a heck of an offer) or the Red Sox.

Trading Hernandez would anger Seattle's fan base, for sure. But there's no need to worry about that, because M's fans are already staying away from Safeco Field; what the Mariners' leadership should choose is the best and most efficient path to on-field success -- whether that's with Hernandez, or with the huge cache of prospects it would get for him.

If the Mariners start winning again, Seattle will support the team; they have demonstrated this in the past.

Will Zduriencik be a part of that? Will King Felix?

We'll see.

By the way: Franklin Gutierrez is not getting better, and the Mariners are seeking another opinion about his stomach troubles, Geoff Baker writes.

• Luis Salazar, the manager who lost an eye in spring training because of a foul ball, returned to his post, Jill Vejnoska writes.

• The third team to register 10 wins this season: the Kansas City Royals, who shut out the Mariners. The fourth: the Cleveland Indians, who shut down the Orioles to extend their winning streak; they have a strong bullpen and will get back Grady Sizemore in the hours ahead.

I'm still not sure whether the Royals have staying power this season. I'm starting to think the Indians do, because of Justin Masterson's improvement, Josh Tomlin's steady presence in the middle of their rotation and because the Cleveland bullpen appears to be pretty good; the Indians' relief corps has posted a 3.08 ERA so far this year.

Kansas City's strong start is inspiring cautious optimism, writes Sam Mellinger. The Royals' bullpen has been lights out.

Ned Colletti has been in baseball for three decades, and this spring, for the first time, a young player asked him about what it takes to be a leader.

That player was Jerry Sands, the Los Angeles Dodgers' young outfielder who is tearing up Triple-A, hitting .432 with five homers for Albuquerque, which fits everything Colletti had heard about him. A year ago, when the 25th-round draft pick was in Double-A, Colletti asked Bill Mueller and Mark Sweeney, two of his staffers, to report back on Sands' approach at the plate. "I asked them to look at his thought process as a hitter," Colletti said. "They both came back and absolutely raved about him -- how he thought, how he prepared for his at-bats, everything."

Sands played well in spring training, before his strong start in the minors this year. The Dodgers have demonstrated in the past that they will promote players in spite of the service time advantages gleaned from waiting: Andre Ethier made his debut on May 2, 2006.

But what Los Angeles could be waiting for is for Sands to deal with his first failure of this season, his first slump. Teams typically like to have their prospects work their way through some struggles before promoting them, so that they reach the big leagues with some internal mechanisms in place to cope with the inevitable problems. No matter how much talent a player has, there is no such thing as a seamless life in the majors, as Stephen Strasburg would testify.

The Dodgers may not be able to wait much longer, however. They are drifting deeper into the standings behind the Rockies and Giants -- they're now 5.5 games behind -- and they are starved for run production, especially from left field: L.A.'s left fielders haven't generated a homer this year. The Dodgers' losing streak has reached five games. "If I can't wait," said Colletti, "then I won't wait."

Whenever Sands does establish himself, Colletti expects that he will be a leader -- because of the way he plays and expresses himself. "You don't see that kind of thing very often," Colletti said.

• The plan of the Cardinals' front office was to improve the team by bolstering the St. Louis offense -- and this blueprint has manifested in the last week, after Matt Holliday returned to the lineup. The Cardinals crushed Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and have now racked up 60 runs in their last seven games. This was without Lance Berkman, who got a day off.

• Watched some of the Astros' win over the Padres, and the winning pitcher, in the end, was Mark Melancon, who faced one hitter and benefited from a diving catch by -- of all folks -- Carlos Lee. But Melancon has thrown well for Houston, and thrown strikes, something he did not do when he was summoned to the big leagues by the New York Yankees. New York staffers were always perplexed by Melancon, who has good stuff and threw strikes in the minors, but then always struggled when called up. So far this year, he's issued one walk in nine appearances.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]1. The Phillies' rainout Saturday will give Roy Oswalt extra time to rest his back.
2. Jake Peavy is making progress, Dave van Dyck writes.

3. Alex Rodriguez hurt his back.

4. Jason Bay could be back as soon as Tuesday.

5. Hong-Chih Kuo was placed on the DL.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]1. Frank McCourt needed a loan to meet the Dodgers' payroll obligations, writes Bill Shaikin.
2. The slumping Kelly Johnson was benched.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. Watched some of the Braves' sweep of the Mets and Jair Jurrjens commanded the ball very well in his first start of the season -- albeit without the old 93-94 mph fastball.
2. Starlin Castro was The Man for the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan writes. From Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats and Info: Castro had four hits Saturday, including what turned out to be the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh inning. According to Pitch F/X, three of Castro's four hits, including the home run, came against fastballs, a pitch Castro has had success with this season, hitting 15-for-34 (.441) against it. This was the fourth four-hit game of his career Saturday -- in his 139th game. He is the first player to have four four-hit games in his first 139 career games since Willy Taveras in 2005.

Castro has thrived in the leadoff position this season:

[h4]Starlin Castro by Batting Order Position, 2011 Season[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]1st[/th][th=""]All Others[/th][/tr][tr][td]Games[/td][td]6[/td][td]8[/td][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].536[/td][td].286[/td][/tr][tr][td]H-AB[/td][td]15-28[/td][td]10-35[/td][/tr][tr][td]Runs[/td][td]6[/td][td]6[/td][/tr][tr][td]RBI[/td][td]4[/td][td]2[/td][/tr][/table]

3. Josh Beckett had another strong start, on a day when Carl Crawford was out of the lineup. From Stats and Info, how Beckett won:
(A) He worked down in the strike zone. On at-bats that ended on pitches "down," the Jays were 0-for-11 with six strikeouts.
(B) He started each of his seven innings by retiring the leadoff man and went to three-ball counts to just three of the 26 batters he faced.
(C) His offspeed dominance. Beckett allowed only three hits, and all of them came against fastballs. The Jays were 0-for-6 with three strikeouts in at-bats ending with curveballs and 0-for-1 against the changeup.

• Hitters are 0-for-26 on at-bats that end with an offspeed pitch from Beckett this season, including 12 strikeouts.

[h4]Josh Beckett Opponent Batting Average Last Two Seasons by Pitch Type[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Pitch[/th][th=""]2010[/th][th=""]2011[/th][/tr][tr][td]Fastball[/td][td].303[/td][td].238[/td][/tr][tr][td]Curveball[/td][td].233[/td][td].000<<[/td][/tr][tr][td]Changeup[/td][td].308[/td][td].000<<[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>Curveball 0-17, Changeup 0-9[/td][/tr][/table]

4. The Reds continue to roll. The franchise goal is to draw 3 million, says Bob Castellini.

5. You can't stop the Rays, you can only hope to contain them: Johnny Damon got another big hit, Marc Topkin writes. He is Tampa Bay's first rock star, writes John Romano.

6. Tyler Chatwood was The Man for the Angels. Mike Scioscia likes what Hank Conger is doing behind the plate. How Chatwood won:
(A) With his fastball. Held White Sox hitters to a 3-for-17 (.176) performance on at-bats that ended with a heater.
(B) He pitched inside. On at-bats that ended on an "inside" pitch, the White Sox were 1-for-10 (.100).
(C) He threw strikes. Chatwood faced 24 hitters and only three saw three-ball counts.

7. The Diamondbacks have dropped three straight, and counting.

8. A bad inning cost Justin Verlander, as John Lowe writes.

9. A Toronto pitcher got pounded, Mike Rutsey writes.

10. The Mets are having a Murphy's Law kind of season: They were swept in a doubleheader for the second time in three days, and their most effective starting pitcher was placed on the disabled list.

11. Freddy Garcia was dazzling in his first start of the season. He provides a template for others, writes Ken Davidoff.

12. The Rockies' winning streak came to an end, as they struggled to get a big hit.

13. Nothing is working for the Orioles these days; Jeremy Guthrie lost Saturday.

14. Derek Holland's strong effort was spoiled, writes Jeff Wilson.

15. The Twins had late-inning problems again, and right now, Minnesota has the worst offense in the majors, having scored the fewest runs.

16. Mat Latos lost again.

17. Barry Zito got hurt, but the Giants still won. He was on crutches after the game.

18. Dallas Braden pitched the Athletics to a win, before he came out with a stiff shoulder. This doesn't sound good.

19. The Pirates' pitchers left the ball up in the strike zone; James McDonald's ERA is 7.47, Bill Brink writes.

[h4]The Patience Index[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Hitter[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]No. Pitches[/th][th=""]P per PA[/th][/tr][tr][td]David Ortiz[/td][td]4[/td][td]25[/td][td]6.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Austin Jackson[/td][td]5[/td][td]30[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kosuke Fukudome[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyle McClellan[/td][td]3[/td][td]18[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Howie Kendrick[/td][td]5[/td][td]29[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Hawpe[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Langerhans[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brian McCann[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Justin Upton[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Valencia[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][/table]


Up the middle combos:

Spoiler [+]
It's a timeworn adage that a ballclub must be strong up the middle to win a championship. A few years ago, Bill James wrote that the importance of strength up the middle was "perhaps the first lick of old baseball wisdom that I ever encountered."

Given the way talent is distributed across what James called the defensive spectrum, which runs 1B-LF-RF-3B-CF-2B-SS-C, it makes sense. The positions on the right are the premium ones defensively; the offensive bar is lower than for those on the left. It's much tougher to find above-average hitters to fill the premium defensive slots, and teams are at a considerable advantage when they do. In his column Thursday, Jerry Crasnick breaks down the best up-the-middle combos in baseball in 2011 (catcher, second base, shortstop and center field), and that got us thinking about how much truth there is to the "strong up the middle" axiom.

To examine the importance of this principle, we totaled the offensive and defensive contributions of each team's up-the-middlemen (starters and backups) using batting runs above average, fielding runs above average and (for catchers) baserunning runs against for all teams dating back to 1995. Since these are positions of the highest defensive importance, you might expect the fielding stat -- FRAA -- to correlate most strongly with winning percentage. Yet FRAA's correlation with winning percentage over that span is a meager .15, while catchers' strength against the running game is minus-.03 -- essentially no correlation at all. On the other hand, up-the-middle BRAA correlates with winning percentage at a much stronger .54. Including both BRAA and FRAA edges it up to .57. (For reference, a correlation of 1.0 is the highest possible, minus-1.0 is the lowest possible.)

Having good hitters up the middle, in other words, is far more important to winning than having good fielders. The reason is simple: the spread between good and bad hitters is far wider than that between good and bad fielders.

In the wild-card era, 18 of the top 25 teams in up-the-middle RAA have made the postseason, 14 as division winners, while just two of the top 25 finished below .500. Cracking the top 15 no less than five times and winning two of the group's three championships are the Joe Torre-led New York Yankees, a club that featured Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and a rotating cast of second basemen; the 2007 edition, with Robinson Cano at second base but without Williams, is also among this group. Also making the list five times are the Alex Rodriguez-era Seattle Mariners, with Ken Griffey Jr. part of four of those teams. The other champion from these ranks is the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, whose up-the-middle core -- Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino -- ranked even higher in 2007.

[h4]Middle men[/h4]
Here are the 10 strongest up-the-middle quartets of the wild-card era. The 2003 Braves, led by the 115 combined homers of Javy Lopez, Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones, top the list.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Total RAA[/th][th=""]Win Pct.[/th][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]Braves[/td][td]213[/td][td].624[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Phillies[/td][td]195[/td][td].549[/td][/tr][tr][td]1999[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]194[/td][td].605[/td][/tr][tr][td]1998[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]165[/td][td].704[/td][/tr][tr][td]1996[/td][td]Orioles[/td][td]160[/td][td].543[/td][/tr][tr][td]1998[/td][td]Mariners[/td][td]156[/td][td].472[/td][/tr][tr][td]1997[/td][td]Braves[/td][td]154[/td][td].624[/td][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]153[/td][td].624[/td][/tr][tr][td]2002[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]140[/td][td].640[/td][/tr][tr][td]1996[/td][td]Mariners[/td][td]139[/td][td].528[/td][/tr][/table]

Meanwhile, none of the bottom 59 teams (out of 474) in up-the-middle RAA made the postseason, and just four of the bottom 100 did, with the 2006 Cardinals (Yadier Molina in a down year, plus Aaron Miles and David Eckstein weighing down a late-career Jim Edmonds), who won the World Series despite an 83-78 regular-season record, the only champions from among that sorry lot. Only 18 of the bottom 200 teams made the postseason, with four winning it all.

As to the implications for this year's teams, we can use our PECOTA projections for each team's up-the-middle players and our upgraded Playoff Odds Report -- which combines this season's results to date with our PECOTA-based team projections -- to sense how the contenders stack up.

Most teams, you'll note, get below-average hitting performance from their up-the-middle players; unlike VORP, BRAA isn't adjusted for position, and most teams' production comes primarily from their corner infielders and outfielders. The clear exception is the Colorado Rockies: Led by Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta and Dexter Fowler, Colorado's middlemen project to be the majors' most productive by far, even with its muddled second-base situation. Thanks particularly to Tulo, the Rockies' collection is one of just six which project to be above average with the stick. The Hanley Ramirez-led Florida Marlins contingent (Ramirez, John Buck, Omar Infante and Chris Coghlan), Yankees, Braves, Diamondbacks and Phillies are the only other teams with enough above-average bats to lift their mid-diamond collections into the black offensively.

When defense is included in the mix, just five teams project to be above average, with the Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers the most bona fide contenders of the bunch. Of the teams with at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, seven hail from the upper half of the table in terms of projected RAA, compared to four in the lower half, and none among the bottom seven. The Detroit Tigers (Alex Avila/Victor Martinez, Will Rhymes/Carlos Guillen, Jhonny Peralta and Austin Jackson) have the lowest projected up-the-middle RAA among teams considered contenders, and their projected playoff odds are currently 23.3 percent.

One area of interest is the cluster in the National League Central. The Milwaukee Brewers' pair of abjectly replacement-level middlemen (shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and center fielder Carlos Gomez) offset the presence of Rickie Weeks, but their unit projects to be on par with the Cardinals because of PECOTA's surprisingly low opinion of both Yadier Molina and Colby Rasmus (the latter due to minus-8 FRAA defense). Just above those two are the Reds, whose offensive advantage from the Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan catching tandem is offset by the Paul Janish/Edgar Renteria black hole at shortstop. As with Rasmus, PECOTA is particularly down on Drew Stubbs, whose offensive production improved considerably last year, and whose defense is lauded by observers but less so by our forecasting system.

The up-the-middle business only takes you so far. Most offenses' butter-and-egg men (to borrow a term from Vin Scully) come from the infield and outfield corners, and pitching is no small matter, either. Still, it's worth remembering that any team whose mid-diamond players step up offensively will get a considerable boost to its chances of reaching the playoffs. Based on recent playoff history, this is one piece of conventional wisdom that certainly has some merit.

Most irreplaceable players:

Spoiler [+]
It's been an awful couple of weeks for baseball injuries. On the young season, we've already seen stars Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman go on the disabled list. You can't really replace the production of players on that level, but some of them are more irreplaceable than others.

When determining the most valuable players in baseball, an ever-increasing number of statistical tools are now at our disposal. The most straightforward of these is wins above replacement (WAR). Yet analysis of which players are most valuable often seems to stop at the water's edge of that player's value in a vacuum. In reality, how valuable a player is to his team is determined not just by his own production, but also by how much more production he provides than his team's Plan B at the position. Yes, this means of evaluating penalizes players who play for deep teams, but it is a reality.

If a player has a WAR of 6.0 in a season, and his backup is negative -2.0, that player is more valuable to his team than another player with a WAR of 9.0 whose backup is worth 4.0.

That's why, on this list of the most irreplaceable players in baseball, you won't see Longoria. The estimated full-season dropoff from him to backup Sean Rodriguez is roughly 3.0. That's a lot, but it's not among the five highest in baseball. Hamilton was a big loss for the Rangers this week, but Texas doesn't lose nearly as much as you'd think. Thanks to David Murphy, one of the best fourth outfielders in the game, the dropoff is around 3-4 wins over a full season.

Let's take a closer look at the five most irreplaceable position players in baseball, whose misfortune would provide the most doom when you factor in the quality of the players' backup:

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: No one would seriously argue that Fielder is a more valuable player than Albert Pujols. Fielder's career OPS+ is 140, Pujols' is 171.

But should Pujols get hurt, his likely fill-in would be Lance Berkman, whose career OPS+ is 145, 140 the last three seasons, and even 114 in last year's injury-plagued campaign. (Allen Craig, a strong hitter, would step in for Berkman in left field.) The dropoff from Pujols to Berkman is around five wins.

Should Fielder go down, his backups are Erick Almonte, a 33-year-old minor leauge journeyman, and Mark Kotsay, whose calling card, even in his prime, was an outfielder's glove. The scary thing for the Brewers is that Fielder is a free agent this winter, and they'll likely need a long-term replacement very soon.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6 wins)

4. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: 2010 was a down season for Ramirez, with a .300/.378/.475 campaign providing an OPS+ of just 124. Yet more fantasy owners chose him as the first shortstop than anyone else heading into 2011, because even a down year like that is superior to what other shortstops provide. In Ramirez's previous three seasons, he checked in with an OPS+ of 145, 143 and 148.

And if Ramirez is better than the league's starting shortstops, imagine how much better he is than his backup in Florida, Donnie Murphy. The wandering middle infielder has a career .202/.271/.370 hitting line in 442 major league plate appearances, good for a career OPS+ of 70. How irreplaceable is Ramirez? The Marlins fired their manager last year after Ramirez failed to hustle. Florida knew you can find another manager, but another Ramirez is far more difficult to come by.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6.5 wins)

3. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: On a team with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, Cano has become the most valuable Yankee in the starting lineup by a decent margin. His .319/.381/.534 line was good for an OPS+ of 142 in 2010, which was tops on the team. Add in tremendous defense at second base, and he'd be hard to replace in any lineup.

But then, look at the options to replace him. Eduardo Nunez is a solid defensive shortstop, and that would presumably translate to the less-demanding position across the second base bag. But with just a .721 OPS and four home runs in Triple-A last year, the vacuum a Cano injury would create for the Yankees would be enormous.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7 wins)

2. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: Minnesota will see first-hand just how awful life will be without Mauer, whose mysterious leg injury landed him on the DL on Thursday. Mauer hit .327/.402/.469 in 2010, and that has to be considered a down year for him. In 2009, his .365/.444/.587 line is among the best seasons any catcher in baseball history has ever enjoyed.

Say this for his backup, Drew Butera: He is quite strong defensively, with 44 percent of would-be basestealers caught on his watch. But his career OPS of .514 in 168 major league plate appearances probably isn't just small sample size skew; his career minor league OPS is .613 in 1,630 plate appearances.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7.5 wins)

1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: There's been no more unfortunate injury in baseball this season than Zimmerman's abdominal strain. The best third baseman in the game put up an OPS+ of 142 to go with superb defense in 2010. He was off to a fast start in 2011, and the hope is he'll return in a couple of weeks.

What exacerbates Zimmerman's absence is backup Alex Cora. There's no decent way to say this: Cora doesn't belong on a major league roster anymore. He is a bright, engaging guy, whose OPS+ last year was 49, and he's now 35 years old. His defense, once a strength, has deteriorated badly, and playing at third base, Cora is actually out of position.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 8.5 wins)

Rumors:

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Cause for concern with Braden?[/h3]
11:04AM ET

[h5]Dallas Braden | Athletics [/h5]


Dallas Braden was not optimistic about making his next start. At this stage, the Athletics would likely be happy if that is all the time the left-hander will miss.

Braden was forced to leave Saturday's start against Detroit with shoulder stiffness, and hinted to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he fears a significant injury. While stiffness is common for pitchers, Braden said to Slusser: "Not like this."

Braden appeared to be turning the corner, allowing one earned run over 11 innings at the time of his departure Saturday. Tyson Ross is the likely candidate to replace the perfect game southpaw in his next start.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Latest on Gutierrez[/h3]
10:51AM ET

[h5]Franklin Gutierrez | Mariners [/h5]


UPDATE: In what can't be viewed as a good sign, manager Eric Wedge said Gutierrez has flown back to Seattle to meet with team medical personnel ahead of a decision on what to do next.

--

Franklin Gutierrez was slated to start a three-game rehab stint in Triple-A Tacoma Friday, but that plan changed when the weather reports suggested potential postponements. So the club moved the Gold Glover's rehab to Class-A High Desert. But that didn't work out, either.

Gutierrez felt sick again and could not make his schedule appearance, which has the club looking to send him out for further evaluation, possibly the Mayo Clinic, tweets 710 ESPN's Shannon Drayer.

It sure looks like Michael Saunders and Ryan Langerhans will continue to share center field for a while as Gutierrez gets the medical treatment he needs, which also keeps Milton Bradley (left field) and Jack Cust (DH) in the lineup regularly, too.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Reyes, Litsch on bubble in Toronto[/h3]
10:42AM ET

[h5]Toronto Blue Jays [/h5]


The Toronto Blue Jays are on pace to welcome Brandon Morrow back to the rotation later this week, but who he replaces in the rotation is no longer a slam dunk.

Jo-Jo Reyes appeared to be on his way out of the starting five following a five-walk outing Saturday in Boston, but Mark Rutsay of the Toronto Sun reports that Jesse Litsch put himself on the bubble when he was roughed up at Fenway Park Sunday.

Morrow, currently on the 15-day disabled list with inflammation in his right elbow, is expected to pitch Friday or Sunday.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Rangers may delay Martin signing[/h3]
10:23AM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]


We mentioned Wednesday that the Texas Rangers are expected to sign Cuban defector Leonys Martin and give the Cuban defector a signing bonus in the neighborhood of $15 million, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Meanwhile, MLB.com?s T.R. Sullivan reported Sunday the Rangers will likely delay announcing the signing of Martin due to customs and immigration red tape. Sullivan says it could be beyond this week before he is ready to play for the Rangers.

In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney talked to several talent evaluators who seemed to be split on Martin, including one who wonders if Martin is worth the cost:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The book on Martin
"Talent evaluator No. 2: 'I like Leonys Martin and he was undoubtedly one of Cuba's top young players, but, as with a lot of good Cuban players, I'm not convinced his skill set will translate into him becoming a premium Major League player. The best way I can describe Martin is that his reputation seems to exceed the sum of his parts. Martin has plus speed and a good arm but no other premium skills or tools, so the rumored $15M seems aggressive.'"
http://[h3]Webb open to bullpen role[/h3]
10:14AM ET

[h5]Brandon Webb | Rangers [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangersTexas Rangers' best-case senario for 2011 called for a prominent role in the rotation for free agent signee http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5455Brandon Webb, who has pitched in all of one game since 2009 due to shoulder problems,

Webb began the season on the disabled list and his progress has been slow, although he did throw 70 pitches in the Yankee Stadium bullpen Sunday afternoon. Afterwards, Webb told MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan he would be willing to work out of the bullpen as a reliever if that's what the Rangers need when he gets back.

Right now there is no room in the rotation for Webb, Tommy Hunter or Scott Feldman, all of whom are all on the disabled list, so Webb's best route might be to start as a long reliever. It will be a major adjustment for Webb, who has made all put one of his 199 career appearances as a starter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Twins minor leaguer hospitalized[/h3]
9:59AM ET

[h5]Minnesota Twins [/h5]


There is cause for concern with the health of Twins minor leaguer Paul Bargas, a lefthanded reliever obtained in an offseason trade with Colorado for Jose Morales.

GM Bill Smith tells La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune that Bargas has has been hospitalized at the UCLA Medical Center because of a neurological condition. "He is very sick," Smith said.

The 23-year-old Bargas reported to minor league camp in March but never worked out or pitched for the club. He was 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA for Class A Asheville of the Carolina League.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Phillips miffed at benching[/h3]
9:43AM ET

[h5]Brandon Phillips | Reds [/h5]


Reds second baseman http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5031Brandon Phillips insists that the strained groin he suffered Wednesday in San Diego was no big deal.

Manager Dusty Baker clearly thinks otherwise, sitting Phillips for the third straight game Sunday against Pittsburgh. Baker insists he is merely being cautious due to the chilly weather, but the forced inactivity clearly has Phillips feeling a bit miffed.

Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that one of Phillips' Twitter followers wrote him Sunday to offer support. Phillips tweeted back: "It's hard just sitting down! You know I would play hurt!!" That response may not go over so well in Baker's office.

Miguel Cairo has started three straight games at second in place of Phillips.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Matusz stays on the shelf[/h3]
9:26AM ET

[h5]Brian Matusz | Orioles [/h5]


With a seven-game losing streak, the Baltimore Orioles are looking for help anywhere they can find out. Immediate assistance won't be coming from Brian Matusz, who could be several weeks before Brian Matusz is ready to make his season debut, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.

The Orioles had hoped that Matusz would start throwing bullpen sessions off the mound this week at Camden Yards, but manager Buck Showalter said Sunday that the 24-year-old lefthander is still feeling effects from a strained left intercostal muscle and hasn't been cleared to throw.

The absence of Matusz should mean more time in the rotation for Brad Bergesen, who pitched five respectable innings Sunday against Cleveland.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The Bay Watch[/h3]
8:53AM ET

[h5]Jason Bay | Mets [/h5]


There are no shortage of excuses as to why the New York Mets are off to a 5-11 start, and the absence of Jason Bay due to a strained left rib cage certainly hasn?t helped.

If all goes well, Bay could make his season debut Tuesday against the Houston Astros. Bay appeared in a second rehabilitation game Sunday, going 0-for-3 and playing seven innings in left field for Class-A St. Lucie. He will meet with Mets management Monday to make his case for a return to the lineup.

Willie Harris has received the bulk of the playing time in left field with Bay sidelined. The Mets are currently carrying 13 pitchers, so one of the eight relievers might have to be demoted to make room for Bay.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Can Schumaker avoid DL stint? [/h3]
8:39AM ET

[h5]Skip Schumaker | Cardinals [/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals appear confident that they can avoid stints on the DL for second baseman Skip Schumaker and outfielder Allen Craig, general manager John Mozeliak tells the Post Dispatch.

Schumaker (hyperextended right elbow) and Craig (strained his left groin) missed Sunday's finale of a weekend series in Los Angeles and will have exams Monday in St. Louis.

Should Schumaker need some extra time, it will mean some extra at-bats for Daniel Descalso made his first major-league start at second base Sunday and made a diving catch against Ivan De Jesus in the eighth inning.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Franklin on thin ice as Cards' closer[/h3]
8:25AM ET

[h5]Ryan Franklin | Cardinals [/h5]


Ryan Franklin dropped to the Mendoza Line Sunday, a number that is bad enough when it comes to batting average, let alone a save percentage.

Franklin has concerted just one of five save chances for the St. Louis Cardinals this season, and Joe Strauss of the Post Dispatch reports that the club "has reached a breaking point" after the right-hander allowed a game-winning homer to Matt Kemp of the Dodgers on Sunday.

An indication that Franklin already was on shaky ground came at the start of the ninth when manager Tony La Russa used Trever Miller, who allowed a double before giving way to Franklin.

Strauss reports that La Russa could use Monday's off day to ponder options that were once off the table. Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs have been mentioned as closers in waiting should Franklin leave via free agency after the season. The timetables of those relievers could be accelerated, particularly for Boggs, who appears to have overcome the back stiffness that bothered him in spring training.

There also is 40-year-old Miguel Batista, who had 31 saves for the Blue Jays in 2005.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Could Upton have landed in Boston?[/h3]
7:58AM ET

[h5]Justin Upton | Diamondbacks [/h5]


Justin Upton gave another demonstration of his raw talent by blasting a 478-foot homer for the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday.

Upton, who is off to a solid start with four homers and a .304 average, could have ended up in Boston this season, but the price was too high, reports Nick Cafardo in Sunday's Boston Globe.

Cafardo reports that Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was willing to deal the 21-year-old outfielder to the Red Sox over the winter, but only if he got the same package Boston gave the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez or a straight up deal for Clay Buchholz in return.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Costly DL stint for Saito[/h3]
7:45AM ET

[h5]Takashi Saito | Brewers [/h5]


Every day on the disabled list makes the wallet of Takashi Saito a little lighter.

The Brewers are counting on Saito to be a valuable set-up reliever, but he has not pitched since April 4 and remains on the disabled list with hamstring injuries. Nick Cafardo wrotes in Sunday's Boston Globe that Saito can earn up to five $100,000 bonuses based on time spent on the active roster.

Saito is trying to heal the hamstring fully in the hopes of avoiding the shoulder problems that plagued him in Atlanta. His injury has given Kameron Loe a chance to be the right-handed set-up reliever. Loe had a rough outing Sunday, allowing three runs in a third of an inning against Washington.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Mejia making push for the call?[/h3]
7:21AM ET

[h5]Jenrry Mejia | Mets [/h5]


Before Dillon Gee was called up as an emergency starter over the weekend, the New York Mets gave serious consideration to calling up 21-year-old Jenrry Mejia, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

The decided before spring training began that Mejia would head to Triple-A Buffalo and continue his development as a starting pitcher. The righthander has been stellar in his first two starts, allowing one run in 12 2/3 scoreless frames and striking out 11.

The Mets needed a starter when Chris Young landed on the disabled list, and Gee stepped up by limiting the Braves to one run in 5 2/3 innings Sunday in Atlanta. But the fact that Mejia was considered for Sunday?s start is a strong indication he is progressing well and could find his way back to Queens sooner rather than later.

The ultimate decision may be determined by service time, however. Rumor Central's Jason A. Churchill notes that Mejia already has 110 days of service and 62 more will give him a full year under his belt, pushing him that much closer to becoming arbitration eligible.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Finding a new DH in Tampa[/h3]
7:05AM ET

[h5]Tampa Bay Rays [/h5]


Rays manager Joe Maddon needed to find a new designated hitter once Manny Ramirez sailed into the sunset last week, and the initial plan was to use Dan Johnson on a semi-regular basis with Casey Kotchman taking over for Johnson at first base.

The emergence of YouTube sensation Sam Fuld, however, has prompted Maddon to reconsider his plans.

Fuld is hitting .341 and is making his share of spectacular catches in left field, freeing up Johnny Damon for most of the DH work.

The Rays may look outside the organization for offensive help at some point, but that is not likely for a couple of months, reports Marc Topkin in Sunday's St. Pete Times. Once Evan Longoria returns, the Rays will get a better read as to their offensive needs.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The fate of King Felix in Seattle[/h3]
6:53AM ET

[h5]Felix Hernandez | Mariners [/h5]


The Seattle Mariners are 5-11 to start the season and already have two losing streaks of at least four games. The offense isn't scoring runs -- second-worst runs-per-game average in baseball heading into the series finale in Kansas City Sunday and King Felix Hernandez is, again, receiving no support.

In that light, our own Buster Olney wonders if GM Jack Zduriencik, who has previously -- and recently -- stated that his ace right-hander is not going to be traded, might be forced to change his mind and use Hernandez as the bait to rebuild his club quicker.

It's April, however, not June or August, and the M's front office knew this was going to be a rebuilding season. You don't typically contend during such a season, so while the results are disappointing to the organization, it would be a knee-jerk reaction to use 15 games of results and make major changes, especially when they include the club's most valuable player.

There are good results to point to for Seattle, however, such as the performance of first baseman Justin Smoak, who is hitting .283 with a .414 on-base percentage and has cut his strikeout rates down considerably from a year ago.

Olney has more on the M's and their Cy Young winner:

- Jason A. Churchill

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]B uster Olney[/h5]
Trading King Felix a good idea?
"Trading Hernandez would anger Seattle's fan base, for sure. But there's no need to worry about that, because M's fans are already staying away from Safeco Field; what the Mariners' leadership should choose is the best and most efficient path to on-field success -- whether that's with Hernandez, or with the huge cache of prospects it would get for him. If the Mariners start winning again, Seattle will support the team; they have demonstrated this in the past. Will Zduriencik be a part of that? Will King Felix? We'll see."
 
Spoiler [+]
The Seattle Mariners were held scoreless Saturday, the latest sign that their offense may well be worse than it was last season. Already this year, manager Eric Wedge -- who had choice words for his players after the whitewash -- has written Adam Kennedy's name into the cleanup spot in his batting order, because he doesn't have many power hitters and he's presumably trying to give Justin Smoak some room to breathe.

The OPS of the Mariners' cleanup hitters is .501, a number augmented by exactly zero home runs. Seattle's run differential so far this year stands at minus-33, the worst in the majors. Meanwhile, Mariners executives are bracing themselves for some brutal attendance figures, Larry Stone writes.

All of this failure will fuel two inevitable questions.

No. 1: Will general manager Jack Zduriencik survive?
The Chone Figgins signing hasn't panned out for the Mariners, for sure, and Brandon Morrow thrived in his first season after Seattle traded him. But beyond those two moves, it's hard to identify many mistakes -- because Zduriencik hasn't had a lot of flexibility to spend money, given the contracts of Carlos Silva, et al, and because the organization had so little talent when he arrived. What has skewed the perception of Zduriencik's time with the team is that fragile success of the Mariners in 2009, when Seattle managed to win 85 games despite ranking 28th in runs scored.

If the Mariners had won 70 games that year, then the perception of the task in front of Zduriencik would be more transparent: He is essentially in the same place that Pirates GM Neal Huntington is, trying to accumulate enough high-end talent to turn Seattle around. The Mariners' payroll is significantly higher than that of the Pirates, but remember, 35 percent of that is tied into the iconic Ichiro Suzuki, who is paid high-impact dollars but is not really an impact player (he currently ranks 56th in OPS among outfielders), and to the Silva/Milton Bradley contracts, linked to a signing by the previous regime.

A rival general manager mused over Seattle's situation the other day and noted that there is talent coming together. Within 18 months, he said, the Mariners could have a core of Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Anthony Rendon (if he falls to the No. 2 pick in the June draft), Smoak and Dustin Ackley. "That's pretty good," the GM concluded. "There is progress."

But this summer will be ugly: The losses will mount, the seats will be empty and time will tell whether that will gnaw on the club's leadership to the point that Zduriencik becomes a scapegoat.

Question No. 2: Will Hernandez run out of patience?
Zack Greinke essentially forced his way out of Kansas City with his indifference last summer, and as Greinke slogged along through a mediocre season, King Felix was a model of competitiveness, battling opponents with virtually no run support, maintaining his focus so well that he was eventually rewarded with the AL Cy Young Award. It was, in many respects, one of the great performances we have seen in the past decade.

But Hernandez is not pitching well so far this year, and some rival scouts are detecting early frustration in the right-hander -- they wonder if the losing and the constant stress of pitching with no margin for error, and mostly pitching for nothing but pride, is taking its toll on him. Hernandez has a 4.33 ERA after four starts and opponents are hitting .282 against him. "He looks distracted to me," said one scout. "Something is not right."

What rival scouts and executives see in Hernandez's intensity and effort really doesn't matter; what matters is what Seattle is seeing from him, daily. In a conversation in early February, Hernandez -- one of two Mariners who lives in Seattle in the offseason -- said flatly that he's committed to the organization and wants to do everything he can to help the team win.

If the Mariners' decision-makers determine for themselves that Hernandez is getting fed up and bored with the losing, then the best time to trade him will be this summer. His value is extraordinary, and similarly, their trade leverage will never be higher, because of what he would immediately mean to any interested team, whether it be the Yankees or the Braves (who could put together a heck of an offer) or the Red Sox.

Trading Hernandez would anger Seattle's fan base, for sure. But there's no need to worry about that, because M's fans are already staying away from Safeco Field; what the Mariners' leadership should choose is the best and most efficient path to on-field success -- whether that's with Hernandez, or with the huge cache of prospects it would get for him.

If the Mariners start winning again, Seattle will support the team; they have demonstrated this in the past.

Will Zduriencik be a part of that? Will King Felix?

We'll see.

By the way: Franklin Gutierrez is not getting better, and the Mariners are seeking another opinion about his stomach troubles, Geoff Baker writes.

• Luis Salazar, the manager who lost an eye in spring training because of a foul ball, returned to his post, Jill Vejnoska writes.

• The third team to register 10 wins this season: the Kansas City Royals, who shut out the Mariners. The fourth: the Cleveland Indians, who shut down the Orioles to extend their winning streak; they have a strong bullpen and will get back Grady Sizemore in the hours ahead.

I'm still not sure whether the Royals have staying power this season. I'm starting to think the Indians do, because of Justin Masterson's improvement, Josh Tomlin's steady presence in the middle of their rotation and because the Cleveland bullpen appears to be pretty good; the Indians' relief corps has posted a 3.08 ERA so far this year.

Kansas City's strong start is inspiring cautious optimism, writes Sam Mellinger. The Royals' bullpen has been lights out.

Ned Colletti has been in baseball for three decades, and this spring, for the first time, a young player asked him about what it takes to be a leader.

That player was Jerry Sands, the Los Angeles Dodgers' young outfielder who is tearing up Triple-A, hitting .432 with five homers for Albuquerque, which fits everything Colletti had heard about him. A year ago, when the 25th-round draft pick was in Double-A, Colletti asked Bill Mueller and Mark Sweeney, two of his staffers, to report back on Sands' approach at the plate. "I asked them to look at his thought process as a hitter," Colletti said. "They both came back and absolutely raved about him -- how he thought, how he prepared for his at-bats, everything."

Sands played well in spring training, before his strong start in the minors this year. The Dodgers have demonstrated in the past that they will promote players in spite of the service time advantages gleaned from waiting: Andre Ethier made his debut on May 2, 2006.

But what Los Angeles could be waiting for is for Sands to deal with his first failure of this season, his first slump. Teams typically like to have their prospects work their way through some struggles before promoting them, so that they reach the big leagues with some internal mechanisms in place to cope with the inevitable problems. No matter how much talent a player has, there is no such thing as a seamless life in the majors, as Stephen Strasburg would testify.

The Dodgers may not be able to wait much longer, however. They are drifting deeper into the standings behind the Rockies and Giants -- they're now 5.5 games behind -- and they are starved for run production, especially from left field: L.A.'s left fielders haven't generated a homer this year. The Dodgers' losing streak has reached five games. "If I can't wait," said Colletti, "then I won't wait."

Whenever Sands does establish himself, Colletti expects that he will be a leader -- because of the way he plays and expresses himself. "You don't see that kind of thing very often," Colletti said.

• The plan of the Cardinals' front office was to improve the team by bolstering the St. Louis offense -- and this blueprint has manifested in the last week, after Matt Holliday returned to the lineup. The Cardinals crushed Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and have now racked up 60 runs in their last seven games. This was without Lance Berkman, who got a day off.

• Watched some of the Astros' win over the Padres, and the winning pitcher, in the end, was Mark Melancon, who faced one hitter and benefited from a diving catch by -- of all folks -- Carlos Lee. But Melancon has thrown well for Houston, and thrown strikes, something he did not do when he was summoned to the big leagues by the New York Yankees. New York staffers were always perplexed by Melancon, who has good stuff and threw strikes in the minors, but then always struggled when called up. So far this year, he's issued one walk in nine appearances.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]1. The Phillies' rainout Saturday will give Roy Oswalt extra time to rest his back.
2. Jake Peavy is making progress, Dave van Dyck writes.

3. Alex Rodriguez hurt his back.

4. Jason Bay could be back as soon as Tuesday.

5. Hong-Chih Kuo was placed on the DL.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]1. Frank McCourt needed a loan to meet the Dodgers' payroll obligations, writes Bill Shaikin.
2. The slumping Kelly Johnson was benched.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]1. Watched some of the Braves' sweep of the Mets and Jair Jurrjens commanded the ball very well in his first start of the season -- albeit without the old 93-94 mph fastball.
2. Starlin Castro was The Man for the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan writes. From Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats and Info: Castro had four hits Saturday, including what turned out to be the game-winning three-run home run in the seventh inning. According to Pitch F/X, three of Castro's four hits, including the home run, came against fastballs, a pitch Castro has had success with this season, hitting 15-for-34 (.441) against it. This was the fourth four-hit game of his career Saturday -- in his 139th game. He is the first player to have four four-hit games in his first 139 career games since Willy Taveras in 2005.

Castro has thrived in the leadoff position this season:

[h4]Starlin Castro by Batting Order Position, 2011 Season[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]1st[/th][th=""]All Others[/th][/tr][tr][td]Games[/td][td]6[/td][td]8[/td][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].536[/td][td].286[/td][/tr][tr][td]H-AB[/td][td]15-28[/td][td]10-35[/td][/tr][tr][td]Runs[/td][td]6[/td][td]6[/td][/tr][tr][td]RBI[/td][td]4[/td][td]2[/td][/tr][/table]

3. Josh Beckett had another strong start, on a day when Carl Crawford was out of the lineup. From Stats and Info, how Beckett won:
(A) He worked down in the strike zone. On at-bats that ended on pitches "down," the Jays were 0-for-11 with six strikeouts.
(B) He started each of his seven innings by retiring the leadoff man and went to three-ball counts to just three of the 26 batters he faced.
(C) His offspeed dominance. Beckett allowed only three hits, and all of them came against fastballs. The Jays were 0-for-6 with three strikeouts in at-bats ending with curveballs and 0-for-1 against the changeup.

• Hitters are 0-for-26 on at-bats that end with an offspeed pitch from Beckett this season, including 12 strikeouts.

[h4]Josh Beckett Opponent Batting Average Last Two Seasons by Pitch Type[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Pitch[/th][th=""]2010[/th][th=""]2011[/th][/tr][tr][td]Fastball[/td][td].303[/td][td].238[/td][/tr][tr][td]Curveball[/td][td].233[/td][td].000<<[/td][/tr][tr][td]Changeup[/td][td].308[/td][td].000<<[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>Curveball 0-17, Changeup 0-9[/td][/tr][/table]

4. The Reds continue to roll. The franchise goal is to draw 3 million, says Bob Castellini.

5. You can't stop the Rays, you can only hope to contain them: Johnny Damon got another big hit, Marc Topkin writes. He is Tampa Bay's first rock star, writes John Romano.

6. Tyler Chatwood was The Man for the Angels. Mike Scioscia likes what Hank Conger is doing behind the plate. How Chatwood won:
(A) With his fastball. Held White Sox hitters to a 3-for-17 (.176) performance on at-bats that ended with a heater.
(B) He pitched inside. On at-bats that ended on an "inside" pitch, the White Sox were 1-for-10 (.100).
(C) He threw strikes. Chatwood faced 24 hitters and only three saw three-ball counts.

7. The Diamondbacks have dropped three straight, and counting.

8. A bad inning cost Justin Verlander, as John Lowe writes.

9. A Toronto pitcher got pounded, Mike Rutsey writes.

10. The Mets are having a Murphy's Law kind of season: They were swept in a doubleheader for the second time in three days, and their most effective starting pitcher was placed on the disabled list.

11. Freddy Garcia was dazzling in his first start of the season. He provides a template for others, writes Ken Davidoff.

12. The Rockies' winning streak came to an end, as they struggled to get a big hit.

13. Nothing is working for the Orioles these days; Jeremy Guthrie lost Saturday.

14. Derek Holland's strong effort was spoiled, writes Jeff Wilson.

15. The Twins had late-inning problems again, and right now, Minnesota has the worst offense in the majors, having scored the fewest runs.

16. Mat Latos lost again.

17. Barry Zito got hurt, but the Giants still won. He was on crutches after the game.

18. Dallas Braden pitched the Athletics to a win, before he came out with a stiff shoulder. This doesn't sound good.

19. The Pirates' pitchers left the ball up in the strike zone; James McDonald's ERA is 7.47, Bill Brink writes.

[h4]The Patience Index[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Hitter[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]No. Pitches[/th][th=""]P per PA[/th][/tr][tr][td]David Ortiz[/td][td]4[/td][td]25[/td][td]6.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Austin Jackson[/td][td]5[/td][td]30[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kosuke Fukudome[/td][td]4[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyle McClellan[/td][td]3[/td][td]18[/td][td]6.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Howie Kendrick[/td][td]5[/td][td]29[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Hawpe[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Langerhans[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brian McCann[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Justin Upton[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Valencia[/td][td]4[/td][td]23[/td][td]5.8[/td][/tr][/table]


Up the middle combos:

Spoiler [+]
It's a timeworn adage that a ballclub must be strong up the middle to win a championship. A few years ago, Bill James wrote that the importance of strength up the middle was "perhaps the first lick of old baseball wisdom that I ever encountered."

Given the way talent is distributed across what James called the defensive spectrum, which runs 1B-LF-RF-3B-CF-2B-SS-C, it makes sense. The positions on the right are the premium ones defensively; the offensive bar is lower than for those on the left. It's much tougher to find above-average hitters to fill the premium defensive slots, and teams are at a considerable advantage when they do. In his column Thursday, Jerry Crasnick breaks down the best up-the-middle combos in baseball in 2011 (catcher, second base, shortstop and center field), and that got us thinking about how much truth there is to the "strong up the middle" axiom.

To examine the importance of this principle, we totaled the offensive and defensive contributions of each team's up-the-middlemen (starters and backups) using batting runs above average, fielding runs above average and (for catchers) baserunning runs against for all teams dating back to 1995. Since these are positions of the highest defensive importance, you might expect the fielding stat -- FRAA -- to correlate most strongly with winning percentage. Yet FRAA's correlation with winning percentage over that span is a meager .15, while catchers' strength against the running game is minus-.03 -- essentially no correlation at all. On the other hand, up-the-middle BRAA correlates with winning percentage at a much stronger .54. Including both BRAA and FRAA edges it up to .57. (For reference, a correlation of 1.0 is the highest possible, minus-1.0 is the lowest possible.)

Having good hitters up the middle, in other words, is far more important to winning than having good fielders. The reason is simple: the spread between good and bad hitters is far wider than that between good and bad fielders.

In the wild-card era, 18 of the top 25 teams in up-the-middle RAA have made the postseason, 14 as division winners, while just two of the top 25 finished below .500. Cracking the top 15 no less than five times and winning two of the group's three championships are the Joe Torre-led New York Yankees, a club that featured Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and a rotating cast of second basemen; the 2007 edition, with Robinson Cano at second base but without Williams, is also among this group. Also making the list five times are the Alex Rodriguez-era Seattle Mariners, with Ken Griffey Jr. part of four of those teams. The other champion from these ranks is the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, whose up-the-middle core -- Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino -- ranked even higher in 2007.

[h4]Middle men[/h4]
Here are the 10 strongest up-the-middle quartets of the wild-card era. The 2003 Braves, led by the 115 combined homers of Javy Lopez, Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones, top the list.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Total RAA[/th][th=""]Win Pct.[/th][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]Braves[/td][td]213[/td][td].624[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]Phillies[/td][td]195[/td][td].549[/td][/tr][tr][td]1999[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]194[/td][td].605[/td][/tr][tr][td]1998[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]165[/td][td].704[/td][/tr][tr][td]1996[/td][td]Orioles[/td][td]160[/td][td].543[/td][/tr][tr][td]1998[/td][td]Mariners[/td][td]156[/td][td].472[/td][/tr][tr][td]1997[/td][td]Braves[/td][td]154[/td][td].624[/td][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]153[/td][td].624[/td][/tr][tr][td]2002[/td][td]Yankees[/td][td]140[/td][td].640[/td][/tr][tr][td]1996[/td][td]Mariners[/td][td]139[/td][td].528[/td][/tr][/table]

Meanwhile, none of the bottom 59 teams (out of 474) in up-the-middle RAA made the postseason, and just four of the bottom 100 did, with the 2006 Cardinals (Yadier Molina in a down year, plus Aaron Miles and David Eckstein weighing down a late-career Jim Edmonds), who won the World Series despite an 83-78 regular-season record, the only champions from among that sorry lot. Only 18 of the bottom 200 teams made the postseason, with four winning it all.

As to the implications for this year's teams, we can use our PECOTA projections for each team's up-the-middle players and our upgraded Playoff Odds Report -- which combines this season's results to date with our PECOTA-based team projections -- to sense how the contenders stack up.

Most teams, you'll note, get below-average hitting performance from their up-the-middle players; unlike VORP, BRAA isn't adjusted for position, and most teams' production comes primarily from their corner infielders and outfielders. The clear exception is the Colorado Rockies: Led by Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta and Dexter Fowler, Colorado's middlemen project to be the majors' most productive by far, even with its muddled second-base situation. Thanks particularly to Tulo, the Rockies' collection is one of just six which project to be above average with the stick. The Hanley Ramirez-led Florida Marlins contingent (Ramirez, John Buck, Omar Infante and Chris Coghlan), Yankees, Braves, Diamondbacks and Phillies are the only other teams with enough above-average bats to lift their mid-diamond collections into the black offensively.

When defense is included in the mix, just five teams project to be above average, with the Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers the most bona fide contenders of the bunch. Of the teams with at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, seven hail from the upper half of the table in terms of projected RAA, compared to four in the lower half, and none among the bottom seven. The Detroit Tigers (Alex Avila/Victor Martinez, Will Rhymes/Carlos Guillen, Jhonny Peralta and Austin Jackson) have the lowest projected up-the-middle RAA among teams considered contenders, and their projected playoff odds are currently 23.3 percent.

One area of interest is the cluster in the National League Central. The Milwaukee Brewers' pair of abjectly replacement-level middlemen (shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and center fielder Carlos Gomez) offset the presence of Rickie Weeks, but their unit projects to be on par with the Cardinals because of PECOTA's surprisingly low opinion of both Yadier Molina and Colby Rasmus (the latter due to minus-8 FRAA defense). Just above those two are the Reds, whose offensive advantage from the Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan catching tandem is offset by the Paul Janish/Edgar Renteria black hole at shortstop. As with Rasmus, PECOTA is particularly down on Drew Stubbs, whose offensive production improved considerably last year, and whose defense is lauded by observers but less so by our forecasting system.

The up-the-middle business only takes you so far. Most offenses' butter-and-egg men (to borrow a term from Vin Scully) come from the infield and outfield corners, and pitching is no small matter, either. Still, it's worth remembering that any team whose mid-diamond players step up offensively will get a considerable boost to its chances of reaching the playoffs. Based on recent playoff history, this is one piece of conventional wisdom that certainly has some merit.

Most irreplaceable players:

Spoiler [+]
It's been an awful couple of weeks for baseball injuries. On the young season, we've already seen stars Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman go on the disabled list. You can't really replace the production of players on that level, but some of them are more irreplaceable than others.

When determining the most valuable players in baseball, an ever-increasing number of statistical tools are now at our disposal. The most straightforward of these is wins above replacement (WAR). Yet analysis of which players are most valuable often seems to stop at the water's edge of that player's value in a vacuum. In reality, how valuable a player is to his team is determined not just by his own production, but also by how much more production he provides than his team's Plan B at the position. Yes, this means of evaluating penalizes players who play for deep teams, but it is a reality.

If a player has a WAR of 6.0 in a season, and his backup is negative -2.0, that player is more valuable to his team than another player with a WAR of 9.0 whose backup is worth 4.0.

That's why, on this list of the most irreplaceable players in baseball, you won't see Longoria. The estimated full-season dropoff from him to backup Sean Rodriguez is roughly 3.0. That's a lot, but it's not among the five highest in baseball. Hamilton was a big loss for the Rangers this week, but Texas doesn't lose nearly as much as you'd think. Thanks to David Murphy, one of the best fourth outfielders in the game, the dropoff is around 3-4 wins over a full season.

Let's take a closer look at the five most irreplaceable position players in baseball, whose misfortune would provide the most doom when you factor in the quality of the players' backup:

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: No one would seriously argue that Fielder is a more valuable player than Albert Pujols. Fielder's career OPS+ is 140, Pujols' is 171.

But should Pujols get hurt, his likely fill-in would be Lance Berkman, whose career OPS+ is 145, 140 the last three seasons, and even 114 in last year's injury-plagued campaign. (Allen Craig, a strong hitter, would step in for Berkman in left field.) The dropoff from Pujols to Berkman is around five wins.

Should Fielder go down, his backups are Erick Almonte, a 33-year-old minor leauge journeyman, and Mark Kotsay, whose calling card, even in his prime, was an outfielder's glove. The scary thing for the Brewers is that Fielder is a free agent this winter, and they'll likely need a long-term replacement very soon.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6 wins)

4. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: 2010 was a down season for Ramirez, with a .300/.378/.475 campaign providing an OPS+ of just 124. Yet more fantasy owners chose him as the first shortstop than anyone else heading into 2011, because even a down year like that is superior to what other shortstops provide. In Ramirez's previous three seasons, he checked in with an OPS+ of 145, 143 and 148.

And if Ramirez is better than the league's starting shortstops, imagine how much better he is than his backup in Florida, Donnie Murphy. The wandering middle infielder has a career .202/.271/.370 hitting line in 442 major league plate appearances, good for a career OPS+ of 70. How irreplaceable is Ramirez? The Marlins fired their manager last year after Ramirez failed to hustle. Florida knew you can find another manager, but another Ramirez is far more difficult to come by.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 6.5 wins)

3. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: On a team with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter, Cano has become the most valuable Yankee in the starting lineup by a decent margin. His .319/.381/.534 line was good for an OPS+ of 142 in 2010, which was tops on the team. Add in tremendous defense at second base, and he'd be hard to replace in any lineup.

But then, look at the options to replace him. Eduardo Nunez is a solid defensive shortstop, and that would presumably translate to the less-demanding position across the second base bag. But with just a .721 OPS and four home runs in Triple-A last year, the vacuum a Cano injury would create for the Yankees would be enormous.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7 wins)

2. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: Minnesota will see first-hand just how awful life will be without Mauer, whose mysterious leg injury landed him on the DL on Thursday. Mauer hit .327/.402/.469 in 2010, and that has to be considered a down year for him. In 2009, his .365/.444/.587 line is among the best seasons any catcher in baseball history has ever enjoyed.

Say this for his backup, Drew Butera: He is quite strong defensively, with 44 percent of would-be basestealers caught on his watch. But his career OPS of .514 in 168 major league plate appearances probably isn't just small sample size skew; his career minor league OPS is .613 in 1,630 plate appearances.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 7.5 wins)

1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: There's been no more unfortunate injury in baseball this season than Zimmerman's abdominal strain. The best third baseman in the game put up an OPS+ of 142 to go with superb defense in 2010. He was off to a fast start in 2011, and the hope is he'll return in a couple of weeks.

What exacerbates Zimmerman's absence is backup Alex Cora. There's no decent way to say this: Cora doesn't belong on a major league roster anymore. He is a bright, engaging guy, whose OPS+ last year was 49, and he's now 35 years old. His defense, once a strength, has deteriorated badly, and playing at third base, Cora is actually out of position.
(Estimated full-season dropoff: 8.5 wins)

Rumors:

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Cause for concern with Braden?[/h3]
11:04AM ET

[h5]Dallas Braden | Athletics [/h5]


Dallas Braden was not optimistic about making his next start. At this stage, the Athletics would likely be happy if that is all the time the left-hander will miss.

Braden was forced to leave Saturday's start against Detroit with shoulder stiffness, and hinted to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he fears a significant injury. While stiffness is common for pitchers, Braden said to Slusser: "Not like this."

Braden appeared to be turning the corner, allowing one earned run over 11 innings at the time of his departure Saturday. Tyson Ross is the likely candidate to replace the perfect game southpaw in his next start.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Latest on Gutierrez[/h3]
10:51AM ET

[h5]Franklin Gutierrez | Mariners [/h5]


UPDATE: In what can't be viewed as a good sign, manager Eric Wedge said Gutierrez has flown back to Seattle to meet with team medical personnel ahead of a decision on what to do next.

--

Franklin Gutierrez was slated to start a three-game rehab stint in Triple-A Tacoma Friday, but that plan changed when the weather reports suggested potential postponements. So the club moved the Gold Glover's rehab to Class-A High Desert. But that didn't work out, either.

Gutierrez felt sick again and could not make his schedule appearance, which has the club looking to send him out for further evaluation, possibly the Mayo Clinic, tweets 710 ESPN's Shannon Drayer.

It sure looks like Michael Saunders and Ryan Langerhans will continue to share center field for a while as Gutierrez gets the medical treatment he needs, which also keeps Milton Bradley (left field) and Jack Cust (DH) in the lineup regularly, too.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Reyes, Litsch on bubble in Toronto[/h3]
10:42AM ET

[h5]Toronto Blue Jays [/h5]


The Toronto Blue Jays are on pace to welcome Brandon Morrow back to the rotation later this week, but who he replaces in the rotation is no longer a slam dunk.

Jo-Jo Reyes appeared to be on his way out of the starting five following a five-walk outing Saturday in Boston, but Mark Rutsay of the Toronto Sun reports that Jesse Litsch put himself on the bubble when he was roughed up at Fenway Park Sunday.

Morrow, currently on the 15-day disabled list with inflammation in his right elbow, is expected to pitch Friday or Sunday.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Rangers may delay Martin signing[/h3]
10:23AM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]


We mentioned Wednesday that the Texas Rangers are expected to sign Cuban defector Leonys Martin and give the Cuban defector a signing bonus in the neighborhood of $15 million, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Meanwhile, MLB.com?s T.R. Sullivan reported Sunday the Rangers will likely delay announcing the signing of Martin due to customs and immigration red tape. Sullivan says it could be beyond this week before he is ready to play for the Rangers.

In Thursday's blog, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney talked to several talent evaluators who seemed to be split on Martin, including one who wonders if Martin is worth the cost:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The book on Martin
"Talent evaluator No. 2: 'I like Leonys Martin and he was undoubtedly one of Cuba's top young players, but, as with a lot of good Cuban players, I'm not convinced his skill set will translate into him becoming a premium Major League player. The best way I can describe Martin is that his reputation seems to exceed the sum of his parts. Martin has plus speed and a good arm but no other premium skills or tools, so the rumored $15M seems aggressive.'"
http://[h3]Webb open to bullpen role[/h3]
10:14AM ET

[h5]Brandon Webb | Rangers [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangersTexas Rangers' best-case senario for 2011 called for a prominent role in the rotation for free agent signee http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5455Brandon Webb, who has pitched in all of one game since 2009 due to shoulder problems,

Webb began the season on the disabled list and his progress has been slow, although he did throw 70 pitches in the Yankee Stadium bullpen Sunday afternoon. Afterwards, Webb told MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan he would be willing to work out of the bullpen as a reliever if that's what the Rangers need when he gets back.

Right now there is no room in the rotation for Webb, Tommy Hunter or Scott Feldman, all of whom are all on the disabled list, so Webb's best route might be to start as a long reliever. It will be a major adjustment for Webb, who has made all put one of his 199 career appearances as a starter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Twins minor leaguer hospitalized[/h3]
9:59AM ET

[h5]Minnesota Twins [/h5]


There is cause for concern with the health of Twins minor leaguer Paul Bargas, a lefthanded reliever obtained in an offseason trade with Colorado for Jose Morales.

GM Bill Smith tells La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune that Bargas has has been hospitalized at the UCLA Medical Center because of a neurological condition. "He is very sick," Smith said.

The 23-year-old Bargas reported to minor league camp in March but never worked out or pitched for the club. He was 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA for Class A Asheville of the Carolina League.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Phillips miffed at benching[/h3]
9:43AM ET

[h5]Brandon Phillips | Reds [/h5]


Reds second baseman http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5031Brandon Phillips insists that the strained groin he suffered Wednesday in San Diego was no big deal.

Manager Dusty Baker clearly thinks otherwise, sitting Phillips for the third straight game Sunday against Pittsburgh. Baker insists he is merely being cautious due to the chilly weather, but the forced inactivity clearly has Phillips feeling a bit miffed.

Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that one of Phillips' Twitter followers wrote him Sunday to offer support. Phillips tweeted back: "It's hard just sitting down! You know I would play hurt!!" That response may not go over so well in Baker's office.

Miguel Cairo has started three straight games at second in place of Phillips.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Matusz stays on the shelf[/h3]
9:26AM ET

[h5]Brian Matusz | Orioles [/h5]


With a seven-game losing streak, the Baltimore Orioles are looking for help anywhere they can find out. Immediate assistance won't be coming from Brian Matusz, who could be several weeks before Brian Matusz is ready to make his season debut, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.

The Orioles had hoped that Matusz would start throwing bullpen sessions off the mound this week at Camden Yards, but manager Buck Showalter said Sunday that the 24-year-old lefthander is still feeling effects from a strained left intercostal muscle and hasn't been cleared to throw.

The absence of Matusz should mean more time in the rotation for Brad Bergesen, who pitched five respectable innings Sunday against Cleveland.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The Bay Watch[/h3]
8:53AM ET

[h5]Jason Bay | Mets [/h5]


There are no shortage of excuses as to why the New York Mets are off to a 5-11 start, and the absence of Jason Bay due to a strained left rib cage certainly hasn?t helped.

If all goes well, Bay could make his season debut Tuesday against the Houston Astros. Bay appeared in a second rehabilitation game Sunday, going 0-for-3 and playing seven innings in left field for Class-A St. Lucie. He will meet with Mets management Monday to make his case for a return to the lineup.

Willie Harris has received the bulk of the playing time in left field with Bay sidelined. The Mets are currently carrying 13 pitchers, so one of the eight relievers might have to be demoted to make room for Bay.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Can Schumaker avoid DL stint? [/h3]
8:39AM ET

[h5]Skip Schumaker | Cardinals [/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals appear confident that they can avoid stints on the DL for second baseman Skip Schumaker and outfielder Allen Craig, general manager John Mozeliak tells the Post Dispatch.

Schumaker (hyperextended right elbow) and Craig (strained his left groin) missed Sunday's finale of a weekend series in Los Angeles and will have exams Monday in St. Louis.

Should Schumaker need some extra time, it will mean some extra at-bats for Daniel Descalso made his first major-league start at second base Sunday and made a diving catch against Ivan De Jesus in the eighth inning.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Franklin on thin ice as Cards' closer[/h3]
8:25AM ET

[h5]Ryan Franklin | Cardinals [/h5]


Ryan Franklin dropped to the Mendoza Line Sunday, a number that is bad enough when it comes to batting average, let alone a save percentage.

Franklin has concerted just one of five save chances for the St. Louis Cardinals this season, and Joe Strauss of the Post Dispatch reports that the club "has reached a breaking point" after the right-hander allowed a game-winning homer to Matt Kemp of the Dodgers on Sunday.

An indication that Franklin already was on shaky ground came at the start of the ninth when manager Tony La Russa used Trever Miller, who allowed a double before giving way to Franklin.

Strauss reports that La Russa could use Monday's off day to ponder options that were once off the table. Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs have been mentioned as closers in waiting should Franklin leave via free agency after the season. The timetables of those relievers could be accelerated, particularly for Boggs, who appears to have overcome the back stiffness that bothered him in spring training.

There also is 40-year-old Miguel Batista, who had 31 saves for the Blue Jays in 2005.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Could Upton have landed in Boston?[/h3]
7:58AM ET

[h5]Justin Upton | Diamondbacks [/h5]


Justin Upton gave another demonstration of his raw talent by blasting a 478-foot homer for the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday.

Upton, who is off to a solid start with four homers and a .304 average, could have ended up in Boston this season, but the price was too high, reports Nick Cafardo in Sunday's Boston Globe.

Cafardo reports that Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was willing to deal the 21-year-old outfielder to the Red Sox over the winter, but only if he got the same package Boston gave the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez or a straight up deal for Clay Buchholz in return.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Costly DL stint for Saito[/h3]
7:45AM ET

[h5]Takashi Saito | Brewers [/h5]


Every day on the disabled list makes the wallet of Takashi Saito a little lighter.

The Brewers are counting on Saito to be a valuable set-up reliever, but he has not pitched since April 4 and remains on the disabled list with hamstring injuries. Nick Cafardo wrotes in Sunday's Boston Globe that Saito can earn up to five $100,000 bonuses based on time spent on the active roster.

Saito is trying to heal the hamstring fully in the hopes of avoiding the shoulder problems that plagued him in Atlanta. His injury has given Kameron Loe a chance to be the right-handed set-up reliever. Loe had a rough outing Sunday, allowing three runs in a third of an inning against Washington.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Mejia making push for the call?[/h3]
7:21AM ET

[h5]Jenrry Mejia | Mets [/h5]


Before Dillon Gee was called up as an emergency starter over the weekend, the New York Mets gave serious consideration to calling up 21-year-old Jenrry Mejia, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

The decided before spring training began that Mejia would head to Triple-A Buffalo and continue his development as a starting pitcher. The righthander has been stellar in his first two starts, allowing one run in 12 2/3 scoreless frames and striking out 11.

The Mets needed a starter when Chris Young landed on the disabled list, and Gee stepped up by limiting the Braves to one run in 5 2/3 innings Sunday in Atlanta. But the fact that Mejia was considered for Sunday?s start is a strong indication he is progressing well and could find his way back to Queens sooner rather than later.

The ultimate decision may be determined by service time, however. Rumor Central's Jason A. Churchill notes that Mejia already has 110 days of service and 62 more will give him a full year under his belt, pushing him that much closer to becoming arbitration eligible.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Finding a new DH in Tampa[/h3]
7:05AM ET

[h5]Tampa Bay Rays [/h5]


Rays manager Joe Maddon needed to find a new designated hitter once Manny Ramirez sailed into the sunset last week, and the initial plan was to use Dan Johnson on a semi-regular basis with Casey Kotchman taking over for Johnson at first base.

The emergence of YouTube sensation Sam Fuld, however, has prompted Maddon to reconsider his plans.

Fuld is hitting .341 and is making his share of spectacular catches in left field, freeing up Johnny Damon for most of the DH work.

The Rays may look outside the organization for offensive help at some point, but that is not likely for a couple of months, reports Marc Topkin in Sunday's St. Pete Times. Once Evan Longoria returns, the Rays will get a better read as to their offensive needs.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The fate of King Felix in Seattle[/h3]
6:53AM ET

[h5]Felix Hernandez | Mariners [/h5]


The Seattle Mariners are 5-11 to start the season and already have two losing streaks of at least four games. The offense isn't scoring runs -- second-worst runs-per-game average in baseball heading into the series finale in Kansas City Sunday and King Felix Hernandez is, again, receiving no support.

In that light, our own Buster Olney wonders if GM Jack Zduriencik, who has previously -- and recently -- stated that his ace right-hander is not going to be traded, might be forced to change his mind and use Hernandez as the bait to rebuild his club quicker.

It's April, however, not June or August, and the M's front office knew this was going to be a rebuilding season. You don't typically contend during such a season, so while the results are disappointing to the organization, it would be a knee-jerk reaction to use 15 games of results and make major changes, especially when they include the club's most valuable player.

There are good results to point to for Seattle, however, such as the performance of first baseman Justin Smoak, who is hitting .283 with a .414 on-base percentage and has cut his strikeout rates down considerably from a year ago.

Olney has more on the M's and their Cy Young winner:

- Jason A. Churchill

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]B uster Olney[/h5]
Trading King Felix a good idea?
"Trading Hernandez would anger Seattle's fan base, for sure. But there's no need to worry about that, because M's fans are already staying away from Safeco Field; what the Mariners' leadership should choose is the best and most efficient path to on-field success -- whether that's with Hernandez, or with the huge cache of prospects it would get for him. If the Mariners start winning again, Seattle will support the team; they have demonstrated this in the past. Will Zduriencik be a part of that? Will King Felix? We'll see."
 
So what happened to the best, hyped up team of the NL West tonight? Offense ain't looking too potent.
 
So what happened to the best, hyped up team of the NL West tonight? Offense ain't looking too potent.
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

So what happened to the best, hyped up team of the NL West tonight? Offense ain't looking too potent.

tim lincecum happened
 
Originally Posted by Proshares

So what happened to the best, hyped up team of the NL West tonight? Offense ain't looking too potent.

tim lincecum happened
 
laugh.gif
my statement was more of a poke at that overrated team than not knowing Lincecum was on the mound.
 
laugh.gif
my statement was more of a poke at that overrated team than not knowing Lincecum was on the mound.
 
Spoiler [+]
On April 19, 2009, the Florida Marlins had the best record in baseball at 11-1. The Blue Jays had the best record in the American League at 10-4. The Padres were second in the NL West at 9-4, and the Royals were in a three-way tie for first place at 7-5. None of those teams made the playoffs or came close to keeping up their opening paces. The Marlins barely played .500 ball the rest of the way, while none of the other three clubs would win even 45 percent of their remaining games.

Most years don't turn themselves upside down to that degree, but it sticks out in my mind because I appeared on ESPN Radio late that month (while I was scouting a New Jersey high school player named Mike Trout) and answered questions about whether any of those "hot start" teams could keep it up. The answer, most of the time, was and is "No."

The flavor of the week right now is Cleveland, fresh off a sweep of last week's flavor, Baltimore. I had Cleveland finishing in fourth this year at 67-95, and I still think the Indians are a lot closer to that than they are to a 90-win season.

One reason is obvious -- the schedule, which can dramatically skew team records and even player stats in tiny samples. Among Cleveland's 11 wins are three-game sweeps of two of the league's worst teams, Seattle and Baltimore. The Indians lost series to preseason divisional favorites Chicago and the Angels, two games to one in each, but also mixed in a sweep of the Red Sox, who were widely picked (including by me) to win the World Series this year thanks to a strong run-prevention scheme and solid offense. The Red Sox pitched well in that series, but Cleveland limited Boston to five runs in three games.

I think you can make a case that Cleveland's offense, currently third in the AL in runs scored, will remain above-average over the long haul. The Indians' two best hitters, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana, were both sporting sub-.300 OBPs after Sunday's game, so as Travis Hafner and Asdrubal Cabrera (slugging .541!) come back to earth, Choo and Santana can pick up the slack, as could Grady Sizemore if he can stay on the field. Cleveland is also expected to call up top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall in June, once the potential for "super-two" arbitration status is diminished, using him in place of the unproductive Jack Hannahan at third base.

Where I doubt Cleveland most is on the run-prevention side of the ledger. The two fluky starts by Mitch Talbot weren't signs of things to come anyway, and now his injury exposes Cleveland's lack of pitching depth in the upper levels. Josh Tomlin's 2.75 ERA and three wins mask fringy stuff, including a below-average fastball and no real out pitch to miss bats; he's likely to be homer-prone in addition to just generally hit-prone. Carlos Carrasco at least has two above-average pitches in his fastball and changeup, but he has never really had an average breaking ball and his command remains a stubborn problem. Even erstwhile ace Justin Masterson has weaknesses, including a career-long platoon split borne of his low arm slot, and while I expect him to dominate right-handed hitters I doubt he'll sustain his current .103/.212/.103 line against them.

The bullpen is headed for a similar regression. Closer Chris Perez has had career-long control issues, but in this year's tiny sample he hasn't missed bats. Rafael Perez hasn't been the same since he was worked hard in the 2007 postseason, and rookie reliever Vinnie Pestano will eventually have to throw something other than a fastball. One or two of these guys may surprise us, but through Sunday's games Cleveland has the lowest opponents' OPS in the league (and the fourth-best ERA), and that's not going to continue, especially not with a below-average defense that would benefit from having Michael Brantley in center and Sizemore in left.

I don't mean to pick on Cleveland specifically; I don't think the Royals are going to finish over .500, nor do I expect the Nationals to do the same. I doubt Boston or Atlanta finishes under .500 or that Minnesota ends up in last place.

I've said it once before about the start of the season, but it bears repeating: We notice these "streaks" only because nothing preceded them, so the standings reflect the hot/cold starts and nothing else. Just about every good team will have a bad stretch, and just about every bad team will have a strong week or two. But it would be a shock to see any of these upside-down starts persist for the entire year.

BABIP

Spoiler [+]
More than a decade ago, Voros McCracken published perhaps the most hotly debated baseball research in recent history, concluding that pitchers have little or no control over the outcomes of balls in play.

Since then, analysts and fantasy players alike have preached the Defense-Independent Pitching gospel far and wide. According to the theory, a pitcher's Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) will gravitate towards the league average (around .300) over large enough samples. Carl Pavano and Ricky Romero had two of the highest BABIP figures in 2009, only to see their "luck" turn around (and their ERAs significantly drop) in 2010.

Is it really that simple? Can we rely on the highest BABIP pitchers to improve and the lowest to subsequently decline? Our research produced some interesting results.

Last year's BABIP leader, Trevor Cahill of the Oakland Athletics, allowed hits on just 24 percent of balls in play. Over the course of the season, Cahill gave up 34 fewer hits than a pitcher with a league average BABIP, likely saving him over a full run on his ERA.

Interestingly, Cahill is also an extreme groundball pitcher. The average major league pitcher induces 43 percent ground balls, 18 percent line drives and 37 percent fly balls. Cahill yielded 55 percent ground balls, the seventh-highest rate among qualified pitchers. The young A's hurler also benefited from a strong infield defense vacuuming up his grounders; Oakland's infield rated as the third-best according to Runs Saved, as provided by Baseball Info Solutions.

[h4]Lowest BABIP, 2010[/h4]
The five pitchers with the lowest BABIP last season, as well as ground ball and fly ball percentages (minimum 450 balls in play)
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]GB%[/th][th=""]FB%[/th][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Cahill[/td][td]0.236[/td][td].55[/td][td].29[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bronson Arroyo[/td][td]0.239[/td][td].43[/td][td].40[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]0.247[/td][td].28[/td][td].51[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]0.249[/td][td].63[/td][td].22[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Sanchez[/td][td]0.252[/td][td].41[/td][td].43[/td][/tr][/table]

As you can see from the above chart, both ground ball and fly ball pitchers are among the BABIP leaders for 2010. The most extreme ground ball pitcher, Tim Hudson at 63 percent, ranked fourth at .249, while the most-extreme fly ball pitcher, Ted Lilly with just a .28 ground ball rate, ranked third at .247. Cahill, Lilly and Bronson Arroyo also ranked in the top 15 in BABIP in 2009.

With pitchers from both extremes on the leaderboard, maybe pitchers do have some control over the outcomes of their balls in play? Is a ground ball from Tim Hudson or Trevor Cahill different from any other pitcher?

[h4]Letting it all hang out[/h4]
Fly ball hangtime (in seconds) for the top fly ball pitchers from 2010
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]FB%[/th][th=""]Average hangtime[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td].51[/td][td]4.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Slowey[/td][td].50[/td][td]4.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Armando Galarraga[/td][td].49[/td][td]4.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jered Weaver[/td][td].47[/td][td]4.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phil Hughes[/td][td].47[/td][td]4.2[/td][/tr][/table]

As it turns out, yes. The five most extreme ground ball pitchers allowed a .215 batting average on ground balls, compared to the league average of .234.

A similar effect holds for the opposite end of the spectrum. Fly ball pitchers tend to allow high fly balls which hang in the air longer and give outfielders have a better chance to get underneath them. Fly balls from Lilly average 4.3 seconds of hang time, while fly balls from Hudson and Derek Lowe fell to the ground roughly a half a second earlier, on average. Lilly and other fly ball pitchers like him allow more soft fly balls, so hitters have a lower BABIP on their fly balls against them.

In addition to their grounder/liner/fliner/fly classifications, Baseball Info Solutions categorizes each ball in play as hard, medium or soft. This combination allows us to produce an "expected BABIP" (xBABIP) based on the quality of bat-on-ball contact allowed. This can help us get a better indication of which pitchers induced particularly strong or weak contact, regardless of how fortunate the outcomes were.

[h4]Ahead of the pack[/h4]
2010 leaders in expected BABIP (min. 450 balls in play)
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]xBABIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jered Weaver[/td][td]0.276[/td][td]0.263[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Wakefield[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.266[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]0.247[/td][td]0.266[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Vargas[/td][td]0.272[/td][td]0.269[/td][/tr][tr][td]Armando Galarraga[/td][td]0.261[/td][td]0.271[/td][/tr][/table]

Jered Weaver led all of baseball with a .263 xBABIP last year. Tim Wakefield and fly ball pitchers Lilly and Armando Galarraga also induced particularly weak contact last year.

Traditional BABIP theories would suggest that Jonathan Niese and Yovani Gallardo are bound for improvement in 2011 after each allowed hits on 32 percent of balls in play last year, but xBABIP suggests that they allowed the hardest contact in baseball last year and that their numbers were in line with what they deserved. Tampa Bay Rays fans are hoping James Shields recovers from his .341 BABIP last year, but he had the fourth-highest xBABIP, suggesting his struggles were more than simple bad luck.

That's not to say luck has nothing to do with a pitcher's batting average on balls in play. It can fluctuate based on a number of factors, and defense and random luck are certainly among them. However, it's also import to recognize that the pitcher's ability to force particularly weak ground balls or fly balls plays a very important role as well. Extreme ground ball and fly ball pitchers seem to have a particular ability to induce weak contact, and should not be expected to regress entirely to the league average.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Belt on the hot seat?[/h3]
11:13AM ET

[h5]San Francisco Giants [/h5]


All signs are pointing to Cody Ross coming off the disabled list as soon as Tuesday, and San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy is dropping hints that rookie first baseman Brandon Belt could be headed back to the minor leagues.

Ross played in his second rehab game for Triple-A Fresno in Las Vegas Monday night. If he reports no pain, the outfielder could be in the lineup as soon as Tuesday in Denver, reports MLB.com's Chris Haft.

The candidates for demotion to make rook for Ross will be between Darren Ford or Belt, who won the first base job out of spring training but is hitting just .196 in April. The Giants want the 23-year-old Belt to play every day, and that might no longer be an option thanks to his slow start.

While Belt has a team-high eight walks, Bochy has cautioned that the rookie needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

Aubrey Huff moved to right field at the start of the season to make room for Belt, but he was back at first base Monday night in Colorado, another sign that Belt could be headed back down.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Rhodes available Tuesday[/h3]
11:11AM ET

[h5]Arthur Rhodes | Rangers [/h5]


Texas Rangers reliever Arthur Rhodes should be available to work Tuesday night against the Angels following his extended outing Sunday against the Yankees, reports Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com<./a>

The 41-year-old Rhodes needed 34 pitches over 1 1/3 innings in his Bronx outing, which was five more throws than he made in any appearance for the Reds last season. Rhodes was not used in a 7-1 win over the Angels Monday night.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Contingency plans for V-Mart[/h3]
10:26AM ET

[h5]Victor Martinez | Tigers [/h5]


The Detroit Tigers could be scrambling for a catcher after Victor Martinez aggravated a groin injury that forced him out of Monday night's game in Seattle.

Martinez will be evaluated again Tuesday and hopes to avoid a trip to the disabled list. Manager Jim Leyland didn't sound overly optimistic when he told reporters: "I'm sure we're going to have to do something."

Not only will the Tigers miss the potent bat of Martinez in the middle of the lineup, but there are issues behind the plate. Alex Avila was already scheduled to catch the entire Seattle series, leaving utilityman Don Kelly as the backup catcher, for now.

One short-term option could be calling up former major leaguer Omir Santos, who is hitting .429 at Triple-A Toledo. If the injury to Martinez is serious, the Tiger could be the latest club to make a pitch to free agent Bengie Molina.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Zumaya's future in Motown[/h3]
10:05AM ET

[h5]Joel Zumaya | Tigers [/h5]


Has Joel Zumaya thrown his last pitch for the Detroit Tigers?

At the very least, Zumaya will not be pitching in Motown anytime soon after the Tigers moved the reliever from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list Monday. The earliest he could now pitch is late May.

Tigers trainer Kevin Rand, told John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press that Zumaya continues to have pain in the tip of his right elbow and might need another surgery.

Another surgery would put Zumaya's 2011 return in doubt. He is eligible for free agency after the season, and the Tigers could be unwilling to re-sign the injury-plagued right-hander who has pitched no more than 31 games in any of the last four seasons.

Drew Sharp of the Free Press suggested last week that it might be time for the Tigers to cut the cord with a key member of their 2006 American League championship team.

http://[h3]Peavy's latest setback[/h3]
9:42AM ET

[h5]Jake Peavy | White Sox [/h5]


A few weeks ago, White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper was considering the idea of occasionally employing a six-man rotation once Jake Peavy was ready.

The White Sox will have to settle for a Fab Five for now after Peavy was removed from his rehab outing with Double-A Birmingham on Monday after just two-thirds of an inning after experiencing some arm discomfort.

Peavy will be re-evaluated Tuesday. At the very least, Peavy's projected return by the end of April appears highly unlikely. The latest setback should mean a more extended time in the rotation for Philip Humber, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four appearances.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Yost sticking with Ka'aihue[/h3]
9:21AM ET

[h5]Kila Ka'aihue | Royals [/h5]


The Kansas City Royals wanted a defensive upgrade at first base this season when they decided to make Billy Butler their primary designated hitter and installed Kila Ka'aihue at the position.

Butler may not be a Gold Glove, but still feels he can play a respectable first base if needed. That seemed like a possibility since Ka'aihue is hitting just .160 with five RBI in the first 14 games. Manager Ned Yost, however, tells Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star that he plans to stick with Ka'aihue, noting he had some strong at-bats Sunday against Seattle.

Butler is hitting a sizzling .368 and will have a spot in the lineup, even if it is not at first base for the foreseeable future. Ka"aihue is believed to be keeping first base warm until prized prospect Eric Hosmer is ready.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Longoria eyes April 29 return[/h3]
8:44AM ET

[h5]Evan Longoria | Rays [/h5]


That timetable is looking more and more accurate. Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune reports that Longoria is on pace to start a minor-league rehab assignment Monday with the idea of rejoining the Rays on April 29 when they open their next homestand.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29105Sean Rodriguez and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4254Felipe Lopez have been sharing third base in Tampa in Longoria's absence.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]How long will Damon sit?[/h3]
8:32AM ET

[h5]Johnny Damon | Rays [/h5]


Johnny Damon was out of the Tampa Bay Rays' lineup Monday with with a bruised tip of left ring finger, but the injury is not expected to require a trip to the disabled list, reports Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune.

The red-hot Damon, who had 11 RBI in six games last week, said he hoped to start gripping a bat in the next few days and could be available as a pinch-hitter as early as Tuesday.

Damon has been spending the bulk of his time as the DH with Sam Fuld taking over in left field. Felipe Lopez replaced Damon as the DH on Monday night.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Scutaro done in Beantown?[/h3]
8:12AM ET

[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]


The Boston Red Sox have now won three straight for the first time this season and they have Jed Lowrie to thank as much as anyone else on the roster. The shortstop had four hits including a home run Monday and has 15 hits in his last 24 at-bats. Lowrie's hot streak could keep Marco Scutaro on the bench, and ultimately it may mean more than that.

Scutaro is 6-for-32 this season and is in the final year of his contract with the club, which makes him a prime trade target should the Sox choose to shop him -- if they aren't already.

It's nice to have depth but it appears Jose Iglesias is ready enough for fill-in duty should something happen to Lowrie, so Scutaro could be sent packing this summer, or before, though it might be best if he got things turned around at the plate first to improve his value.

Clubs that could use a veteran shortstop include the Minnesota Twins, who lost Tsuyoshi Nishioka to injury, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Red Sox apparently won't have to worry about Scutaro pouting on the bench. Scutaro tells WEEI.com he is not upset with his current reserve role.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Bay eyes Thursday return[/h3]
8:00AM ET

[h5]Jason Bay | Mets [/h5]

<
There are no shortage of excuses as to why the New York Mets are off to a 5-11 start, and the absence of Jason Bay due to a strained left rib cage certainly hasn't helped.

Bay had hoped to return from the disabled list Tuesday, but the Mets decided he will play two more games in at Port St. Lucie and return Thursday, tweets ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. That puts Bay in line to play Thursday night against the Astros.

The Mets could use a few long balls, but Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes Tuesday that Bay has demonstrated only warning track power.

Willie Harris has received the bulk of the playing time in left field with Bay sidelined. The Mets are currently carrying 13 pitchers, so one of the eight relievers might have to be demoted to make room for Bay.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Phils' options to replace Romero[/h3]
7:46AM ET

[h5]J.C. Romero | Phillies [/h5]


The Philadelphia Phillies appear to be staring at a trip to the disabled list for reliever J.C. Romero, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.

Romero strained his right calf in the ninth inning Monday in a 6-3, 12-inning loss to the Brewers and limped through the Phillies' clubhouse afterward.

Possible replacements for Romero include right-hander Michael Stutes and left-hander Mike Zagurski. Stutes made a nice impression in spring training and has 11 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Zagurksi, also at Triple-A, would provide a second lefty in the bullpen to Antonio Bastardo.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Disturbing trend for Braden[/h3]
7:20AM ET

[h5]Dallas Braden | Athletics [/h5]


The Oakland Athletics are dealing with more injury woes after http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28749Dallas Braden was placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder stiffness.

Southpaw reliever David Purcey, acquired via trade from the Toronto Blue Jays, will take Braden's spot on the roster. The club is making plans for either Ross or lefty Bobby Cramer to take Braden's turn in the rotation.

Braden was forced to leave Saturday's start against Detroit with shoulder stiffness, and hinted to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he fears a significant injury. While stiffness is common for pitchers, Braden said to Slusser: "Not like this."

Braden appeared to be turning the corner, allowing one earned run over 11 innings at the time of his departure Saturday. But now the lefthander is back on the shelf, and ESPN.com's Christina Karl asks if the latest injury to Braden is part of a disturbing trend for the A's:

- Doug Mittler

kahrl_christina_30.jpg
[h5]Christina Kahrl[/h5]
Braden's latest DL trip
"The last thing the A's need now is another cause to question whether or not they're going to see another season handicapped by too much time lost to injuries. With Braden joining closer Andrew Bailey and key set-up reliever Michael Wuertz on the DL, you can wonder if the A's aren't dealing with a more basic problem -- that perhaps it wasn't the trainers, but the on-field talent itself that's the issue. If health is a skill, and it's one the A's turn out to lack, their chances of unseating Texas might take even bigger hits than Braden's latest setback in the long season to come."
http://[h3]Draft depth impact[/h3]
7:02AM ET

[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]


The Tampa Bay Rays have 10 of the first 60 picks and other clubs such as San Diego, Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington and Boston have more than one first-round choice. The class is deep, so each of those organizations should gain an advantage over the rest of the league in terms of stocking up for the future.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have two top-10 picks, however -- Nos. 3 and 7 -- and could add two frontline starting pitchers if they choose to go that route. There's a chance they could add two of Connecticut righty Matt Barnes, Virginia's Danny Hultzen, Vanderbilt right-hander Sonny Gray and Georgia Tech souythpaw Jed Bradley, or take one of them and look for upside in a prep player such as OF/RHP Bubba Starling, right-hander Dylan Bundy or shortstop Francisco Lindor.

There's a chance that Anthony Rendon, who started the season as the No. 1 prospect, falls past the Pirates at No. 1 and perhaps even Seattle at 2.

Here's more from the MLB Draft Blog:

insider2_64x36.jpg
[h5]Jason A. Churchill[/h5]
The top of the draft is unsettled
"Late in March, (Keith) Law wrote that Hultzen, the No. 4 prospect in the most recent Future 50, isn't likely to be ranked that high when draft day comes, but there's buzz that even the Seattle Mariners may consider Hultzen at No. 2. It's still more likely that Seattle takes Gerrit Cole or (Anthony) Rendon, whichever Pittsburgh leaves on the board, but the more Rendon fails to wow, the more speculation will grow about potential alternatives for the Mariners, and even the Diamondbacks at No. 3."

http://[h3]Nats seek CF help[/h3]
7:01AM ET

[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]


The Washington Nationals, who ended the spring by trading Nyjer Morgan and anointing Rick Ankiel the starter in center field, have apparently given up on that alignment and are seeking help at the position, reports FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

According to Rosenthal, the club is not sold on Roger Bernadina, who is starting in center in Triple-A, or reserve Jerry Hairston, but would probably like to grab a player such as B.J. Upton -- a native of nearby Virginia -- of the Tampa Bay Rays, though he's not available, at least as long as the Rays are within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

Other options could include Boston's Mike Cameron, who could platoon with the left-handed hitting Rick Ankiel, or even Scott Podsednik who is nearly ready to return for the Blue Jays but doesn't have a place to play regularly.

Toronto's Corey Patterson could even be a player the Nationals check in on, but they may prefer a more significant upgrade, which likely means they'll have to wait until at least June.
 
Spoiler [+]
On April 19, 2009, the Florida Marlins had the best record in baseball at 11-1. The Blue Jays had the best record in the American League at 10-4. The Padres were second in the NL West at 9-4, and the Royals were in a three-way tie for first place at 7-5. None of those teams made the playoffs or came close to keeping up their opening paces. The Marlins barely played .500 ball the rest of the way, while none of the other three clubs would win even 45 percent of their remaining games.

Most years don't turn themselves upside down to that degree, but it sticks out in my mind because I appeared on ESPN Radio late that month (while I was scouting a New Jersey high school player named Mike Trout) and answered questions about whether any of those "hot start" teams could keep it up. The answer, most of the time, was and is "No."

The flavor of the week right now is Cleveland, fresh off a sweep of last week's flavor, Baltimore. I had Cleveland finishing in fourth this year at 67-95, and I still think the Indians are a lot closer to that than they are to a 90-win season.

One reason is obvious -- the schedule, which can dramatically skew team records and even player stats in tiny samples. Among Cleveland's 11 wins are three-game sweeps of two of the league's worst teams, Seattle and Baltimore. The Indians lost series to preseason divisional favorites Chicago and the Angels, two games to one in each, but also mixed in a sweep of the Red Sox, who were widely picked (including by me) to win the World Series this year thanks to a strong run-prevention scheme and solid offense. The Red Sox pitched well in that series, but Cleveland limited Boston to five runs in three games.

I think you can make a case that Cleveland's offense, currently third in the AL in runs scored, will remain above-average over the long haul. The Indians' two best hitters, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana, were both sporting sub-.300 OBPs after Sunday's game, so as Travis Hafner and Asdrubal Cabrera (slugging .541!) come back to earth, Choo and Santana can pick up the slack, as could Grady Sizemore if he can stay on the field. Cleveland is also expected to call up top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall in June, once the potential for "super-two" arbitration status is diminished, using him in place of the unproductive Jack Hannahan at third base.

Where I doubt Cleveland most is on the run-prevention side of the ledger. The two fluky starts by Mitch Talbot weren't signs of things to come anyway, and now his injury exposes Cleveland's lack of pitching depth in the upper levels. Josh Tomlin's 2.75 ERA and three wins mask fringy stuff, including a below-average fastball and no real out pitch to miss bats; he's likely to be homer-prone in addition to just generally hit-prone. Carlos Carrasco at least has two above-average pitches in his fastball and changeup, but he has never really had an average breaking ball and his command remains a stubborn problem. Even erstwhile ace Justin Masterson has weaknesses, including a career-long platoon split borne of his low arm slot, and while I expect him to dominate right-handed hitters I doubt he'll sustain his current .103/.212/.103 line against them.

The bullpen is headed for a similar regression. Closer Chris Perez has had career-long control issues, but in this year's tiny sample he hasn't missed bats. Rafael Perez hasn't been the same since he was worked hard in the 2007 postseason, and rookie reliever Vinnie Pestano will eventually have to throw something other than a fastball. One or two of these guys may surprise us, but through Sunday's games Cleveland has the lowest opponents' OPS in the league (and the fourth-best ERA), and that's not going to continue, especially not with a below-average defense that would benefit from having Michael Brantley in center and Sizemore in left.

I don't mean to pick on Cleveland specifically; I don't think the Royals are going to finish over .500, nor do I expect the Nationals to do the same. I doubt Boston or Atlanta finishes under .500 or that Minnesota ends up in last place.

I've said it once before about the start of the season, but it bears repeating: We notice these "streaks" only because nothing preceded them, so the standings reflect the hot/cold starts and nothing else. Just about every good team will have a bad stretch, and just about every bad team will have a strong week or two. But it would be a shock to see any of these upside-down starts persist for the entire year.

BABIP

Spoiler [+]
More than a decade ago, Voros McCracken published perhaps the most hotly debated baseball research in recent history, concluding that pitchers have little or no control over the outcomes of balls in play.

Since then, analysts and fantasy players alike have preached the Defense-Independent Pitching gospel far and wide. According to the theory, a pitcher's Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) will gravitate towards the league average (around .300) over large enough samples. Carl Pavano and Ricky Romero had two of the highest BABIP figures in 2009, only to see their "luck" turn around (and their ERAs significantly drop) in 2010.

Is it really that simple? Can we rely on the highest BABIP pitchers to improve and the lowest to subsequently decline? Our research produced some interesting results.

Last year's BABIP leader, Trevor Cahill of the Oakland Athletics, allowed hits on just 24 percent of balls in play. Over the course of the season, Cahill gave up 34 fewer hits than a pitcher with a league average BABIP, likely saving him over a full run on his ERA.

Interestingly, Cahill is also an extreme groundball pitcher. The average major league pitcher induces 43 percent ground balls, 18 percent line drives and 37 percent fly balls. Cahill yielded 55 percent ground balls, the seventh-highest rate among qualified pitchers. The young A's hurler also benefited from a strong infield defense vacuuming up his grounders; Oakland's infield rated as the third-best according to Runs Saved, as provided by Baseball Info Solutions.

[h4]Lowest BABIP, 2010[/h4]
The five pitchers with the lowest BABIP last season, as well as ground ball and fly ball percentages (minimum 450 balls in play)
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]GB%[/th][th=""]FB%[/th][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Cahill[/td][td]0.236[/td][td].55[/td][td].29[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bronson Arroyo[/td][td]0.239[/td][td].43[/td][td].40[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]0.247[/td][td].28[/td][td].51[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]0.249[/td][td].63[/td][td].22[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Sanchez[/td][td]0.252[/td][td].41[/td][td].43[/td][/tr][/table]

As you can see from the above chart, both ground ball and fly ball pitchers are among the BABIP leaders for 2010. The most extreme ground ball pitcher, Tim Hudson at 63 percent, ranked fourth at .249, while the most-extreme fly ball pitcher, Ted Lilly with just a .28 ground ball rate, ranked third at .247. Cahill, Lilly and Bronson Arroyo also ranked in the top 15 in BABIP in 2009.

With pitchers from both extremes on the leaderboard, maybe pitchers do have some control over the outcomes of their balls in play? Is a ground ball from Tim Hudson or Trevor Cahill different from any other pitcher?

[h4]Letting it all hang out[/h4]
Fly ball hangtime (in seconds) for the top fly ball pitchers from 2010
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]FB%[/th][th=""]Average hangtime[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td].51[/td][td]4.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Slowey[/td][td].50[/td][td]4.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Armando Galarraga[/td][td].49[/td][td]4.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jered Weaver[/td][td].47[/td][td]4.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]Phil Hughes[/td][td].47[/td][td]4.2[/td][/tr][/table]

As it turns out, yes. The five most extreme ground ball pitchers allowed a .215 batting average on ground balls, compared to the league average of .234.

A similar effect holds for the opposite end of the spectrum. Fly ball pitchers tend to allow high fly balls which hang in the air longer and give outfielders have a better chance to get underneath them. Fly balls from Lilly average 4.3 seconds of hang time, while fly balls from Hudson and Derek Lowe fell to the ground roughly a half a second earlier, on average. Lilly and other fly ball pitchers like him allow more soft fly balls, so hitters have a lower BABIP on their fly balls against them.

In addition to their grounder/liner/fliner/fly classifications, Baseball Info Solutions categorizes each ball in play as hard, medium or soft. This combination allows us to produce an "expected BABIP" (xBABIP) based on the quality of bat-on-ball contact allowed. This can help us get a better indication of which pitchers induced particularly strong or weak contact, regardless of how fortunate the outcomes were.

[h4]Ahead of the pack[/h4]
2010 leaders in expected BABIP (min. 450 balls in play)
[table][tr][th=""]Pitcher[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]xBABIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jered Weaver[/td][td]0.276[/td][td]0.263[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Wakefield[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.266[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ted Lilly[/td][td]0.247[/td][td]0.266[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Vargas[/td][td]0.272[/td][td]0.269[/td][/tr][tr][td]Armando Galarraga[/td][td]0.261[/td][td]0.271[/td][/tr][/table]

Jered Weaver led all of baseball with a .263 xBABIP last year. Tim Wakefield and fly ball pitchers Lilly and Armando Galarraga also induced particularly weak contact last year.

Traditional BABIP theories would suggest that Jonathan Niese and Yovani Gallardo are bound for improvement in 2011 after each allowed hits on 32 percent of balls in play last year, but xBABIP suggests that they allowed the hardest contact in baseball last year and that their numbers were in line with what they deserved. Tampa Bay Rays fans are hoping James Shields recovers from his .341 BABIP last year, but he had the fourth-highest xBABIP, suggesting his struggles were more than simple bad luck.

That's not to say luck has nothing to do with a pitcher's batting average on balls in play. It can fluctuate based on a number of factors, and defense and random luck are certainly among them. However, it's also import to recognize that the pitcher's ability to force particularly weak ground balls or fly balls plays a very important role as well. Extreme ground ball and fly ball pitchers seem to have a particular ability to induce weak contact, and should not be expected to regress entirely to the league average.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Belt on the hot seat?[/h3]
11:13AM ET

[h5]San Francisco Giants [/h5]


All signs are pointing to Cody Ross coming off the disabled list as soon as Tuesday, and San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy is dropping hints that rookie first baseman Brandon Belt could be headed back to the minor leagues.

Ross played in his second rehab game for Triple-A Fresno in Las Vegas Monday night. If he reports no pain, the outfielder could be in the lineup as soon as Tuesday in Denver, reports MLB.com's Chris Haft.

The candidates for demotion to make rook for Ross will be between Darren Ford or Belt, who won the first base job out of spring training but is hitting just .196 in April. The Giants want the 23-year-old Belt to play every day, and that might no longer be an option thanks to his slow start.

While Belt has a team-high eight walks, Bochy has cautioned that the rookie needs to be more aggressive at the plate.

Aubrey Huff moved to right field at the start of the season to make room for Belt, but he was back at first base Monday night in Colorado, another sign that Belt could be headed back down.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Rhodes available Tuesday[/h3]
11:11AM ET

[h5]Arthur Rhodes | Rangers [/h5]


Texas Rangers reliever Arthur Rhodes should be available to work Tuesday night against the Angels following his extended outing Sunday against the Yankees, reports Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com<./a>

The 41-year-old Rhodes needed 34 pitches over 1 1/3 innings in his Bronx outing, which was five more throws than he made in any appearance for the Reds last season. Rhodes was not used in a 7-1 win over the Angels Monday night.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Contingency plans for V-Mart[/h3]
10:26AM ET

[h5]Victor Martinez | Tigers [/h5]


The Detroit Tigers could be scrambling for a catcher after Victor Martinez aggravated a groin injury that forced him out of Monday night's game in Seattle.

Martinez will be evaluated again Tuesday and hopes to avoid a trip to the disabled list. Manager Jim Leyland didn't sound overly optimistic when he told reporters: "I'm sure we're going to have to do something."

Not only will the Tigers miss the potent bat of Martinez in the middle of the lineup, but there are issues behind the plate. Alex Avila was already scheduled to catch the entire Seattle series, leaving utilityman Don Kelly as the backup catcher, for now.

One short-term option could be calling up former major leaguer Omir Santos, who is hitting .429 at Triple-A Toledo. If the injury to Martinez is serious, the Tiger could be the latest club to make a pitch to free agent Bengie Molina.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Zumaya's future in Motown[/h3]
10:05AM ET

[h5]Joel Zumaya | Tigers [/h5]


Has Joel Zumaya thrown his last pitch for the Detroit Tigers?

At the very least, Zumaya will not be pitching in Motown anytime soon after the Tigers moved the reliever from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list Monday. The earliest he could now pitch is late May.

Tigers trainer Kevin Rand, told John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press that Zumaya continues to have pain in the tip of his right elbow and might need another surgery.

Another surgery would put Zumaya's 2011 return in doubt. He is eligible for free agency after the season, and the Tigers could be unwilling to re-sign the injury-plagued right-hander who has pitched no more than 31 games in any of the last four seasons.

Drew Sharp of the Free Press suggested last week that it might be time for the Tigers to cut the cord with a key member of their 2006 American League championship team.

http://[h3]Peavy's latest setback[/h3]
9:42AM ET

[h5]Jake Peavy | White Sox [/h5]


A few weeks ago, White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper was considering the idea of occasionally employing a six-man rotation once Jake Peavy was ready.

The White Sox will have to settle for a Fab Five for now after Peavy was removed from his rehab outing with Double-A Birmingham on Monday after just two-thirds of an inning after experiencing some arm discomfort.

Peavy will be re-evaluated Tuesday. At the very least, Peavy's projected return by the end of April appears highly unlikely. The latest setback should mean a more extended time in the rotation for Philip Humber, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four appearances.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Yost sticking with Ka'aihue[/h3]
9:21AM ET

[h5]Kila Ka'aihue | Royals [/h5]


The Kansas City Royals wanted a defensive upgrade at first base this season when they decided to make Billy Butler their primary designated hitter and installed Kila Ka'aihue at the position.

Butler may not be a Gold Glove, but still feels he can play a respectable first base if needed. That seemed like a possibility since Ka'aihue is hitting just .160 with five RBI in the first 14 games. Manager Ned Yost, however, tells Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star that he plans to stick with Ka'aihue, noting he had some strong at-bats Sunday against Seattle.

Butler is hitting a sizzling .368 and will have a spot in the lineup, even if it is not at first base for the foreseeable future. Ka"aihue is believed to be keeping first base warm until prized prospect Eric Hosmer is ready.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Longoria eyes April 29 return[/h3]
8:44AM ET

[h5]Evan Longoria | Rays [/h5]


That timetable is looking more and more accurate. Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune reports that Longoria is on pace to start a minor-league rehab assignment Monday with the idea of rejoining the Rays on April 29 when they open their next homestand.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29105Sean Rodriguez and http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4254Felipe Lopez have been sharing third base in Tampa in Longoria's absence.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]How long will Damon sit?[/h3]
8:32AM ET

[h5]Johnny Damon | Rays [/h5]


Johnny Damon was out of the Tampa Bay Rays' lineup Monday with with a bruised tip of left ring finger, but the injury is not expected to require a trip to the disabled list, reports Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune.

The red-hot Damon, who had 11 RBI in six games last week, said he hoped to start gripping a bat in the next few days and could be available as a pinch-hitter as early as Tuesday.

Damon has been spending the bulk of his time as the DH with Sam Fuld taking over in left field. Felipe Lopez replaced Damon as the DH on Monday night.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Scutaro done in Beantown?[/h3]
8:12AM ET

[h5]Marco Scutaro | Red Sox [/h5]


The Boston Red Sox have now won three straight for the first time this season and they have Jed Lowrie to thank as much as anyone else on the roster. The shortstop had four hits including a home run Monday and has 15 hits in his last 24 at-bats. Lowrie's hot streak could keep Marco Scutaro on the bench, and ultimately it may mean more than that.

Scutaro is 6-for-32 this season and is in the final year of his contract with the club, which makes him a prime trade target should the Sox choose to shop him -- if they aren't already.

It's nice to have depth but it appears Jose Iglesias is ready enough for fill-in duty should something happen to Lowrie, so Scutaro could be sent packing this summer, or before, though it might be best if he got things turned around at the plate first to improve his value.

Clubs that could use a veteran shortstop include the Minnesota Twins, who lost Tsuyoshi Nishioka to injury, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Red Sox apparently won't have to worry about Scutaro pouting on the bench. Scutaro tells WEEI.com he is not upset with his current reserve role.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Bay eyes Thursday return[/h3]
8:00AM ET

[h5]Jason Bay | Mets [/h5]

<
There are no shortage of excuses as to why the New York Mets are off to a 5-11 start, and the absence of Jason Bay due to a strained left rib cage certainly hasn't helped.

Bay had hoped to return from the disabled list Tuesday, but the Mets decided he will play two more games in at Port St. Lucie and return Thursday, tweets ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. That puts Bay in line to play Thursday night against the Astros.

The Mets could use a few long balls, but Andy Martino of the New York Daily News writes Tuesday that Bay has demonstrated only warning track power.

Willie Harris has received the bulk of the playing time in left field with Bay sidelined. The Mets are currently carrying 13 pitchers, so one of the eight relievers might have to be demoted to make room for Bay.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Phils' options to replace Romero[/h3]
7:46AM ET

[h5]J.C. Romero | Phillies [/h5]


The Philadelphia Phillies appear to be staring at a trip to the disabled list for reliever J.C. Romero, reports MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.

Romero strained his right calf in the ninth inning Monday in a 6-3, 12-inning loss to the Brewers and limped through the Phillies' clubhouse afterward.

Possible replacements for Romero include right-hander Michael Stutes and left-hander Mike Zagurski. Stutes made a nice impression in spring training and has 11 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Zagurksi, also at Triple-A, would provide a second lefty in the bullpen to Antonio Bastardo.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Disturbing trend for Braden[/h3]
7:20AM ET

[h5]Dallas Braden | Athletics [/h5]


The Oakland Athletics are dealing with more injury woes after http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28749Dallas Braden was placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder stiffness.

Southpaw reliever David Purcey, acquired via trade from the Toronto Blue Jays, will take Braden's spot on the roster. The club is making plans for either Ross or lefty Bobby Cramer to take Braden's turn in the rotation.

Braden was forced to leave Saturday's start against Detroit with shoulder stiffness, and hinted to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he fears a significant injury. While stiffness is common for pitchers, Braden said to Slusser: "Not like this."

Braden appeared to be turning the corner, allowing one earned run over 11 innings at the time of his departure Saturday. But now the lefthander is back on the shelf, and ESPN.com's Christina Karl asks if the latest injury to Braden is part of a disturbing trend for the A's:

- Doug Mittler

kahrl_christina_30.jpg
[h5]Christina Kahrl[/h5]
Braden's latest DL trip
"The last thing the A's need now is another cause to question whether or not they're going to see another season handicapped by too much time lost to injuries. With Braden joining closer Andrew Bailey and key set-up reliever Michael Wuertz on the DL, you can wonder if the A's aren't dealing with a more basic problem -- that perhaps it wasn't the trainers, but the on-field talent itself that's the issue. If health is a skill, and it's one the A's turn out to lack, their chances of unseating Texas might take even bigger hits than Braden's latest setback in the long season to come."
http://[h3]Draft depth impact[/h3]
7:02AM ET

[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]


The Tampa Bay Rays have 10 of the first 60 picks and other clubs such as San Diego, Toronto, Milwaukee, Washington and Boston have more than one first-round choice. The class is deep, so each of those organizations should gain an advantage over the rest of the league in terms of stocking up for the future.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have two top-10 picks, however -- Nos. 3 and 7 -- and could add two frontline starting pitchers if they choose to go that route. There's a chance they could add two of Connecticut righty Matt Barnes, Virginia's Danny Hultzen, Vanderbilt right-hander Sonny Gray and Georgia Tech souythpaw Jed Bradley, or take one of them and look for upside in a prep player such as OF/RHP Bubba Starling, right-hander Dylan Bundy or shortstop Francisco Lindor.

There's a chance that Anthony Rendon, who started the season as the No. 1 prospect, falls past the Pirates at No. 1 and perhaps even Seattle at 2.

Here's more from the MLB Draft Blog:

insider2_64x36.jpg
[h5]Jason A. Churchill[/h5]
The top of the draft is unsettled
"Late in March, (Keith) Law wrote that Hultzen, the No. 4 prospect in the most recent Future 50, isn't likely to be ranked that high when draft day comes, but there's buzz that even the Seattle Mariners may consider Hultzen at No. 2. It's still more likely that Seattle takes Gerrit Cole or (Anthony) Rendon, whichever Pittsburgh leaves on the board, but the more Rendon fails to wow, the more speculation will grow about potential alternatives for the Mariners, and even the Diamondbacks at No. 3."

http://[h3]Nats seek CF help[/h3]
7:01AM ET

[h5]Washington Nationals [/h5]


The Washington Nationals, who ended the spring by trading Nyjer Morgan and anointing Rick Ankiel the starter in center field, have apparently given up on that alignment and are seeking help at the position, reports FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

According to Rosenthal, the club is not sold on Roger Bernadina, who is starting in center in Triple-A, or reserve Jerry Hairston, but would probably like to grab a player such as B.J. Upton -- a native of nearby Virginia -- of the Tampa Bay Rays, though he's not available, at least as long as the Rays are within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

Other options could include Boston's Mike Cameron, who could platoon with the left-handed hitting Rick Ankiel, or even Scott Podsednik who is nearly ready to return for the Blue Jays but doesn't have a place to play regularly.

Toronto's Corey Patterson could even be a player the Nationals check in on, but they may prefer a more significant upgrade, which likely means they'll have to wait until at least June.
 
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