2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Pro posted that article a while back that showed how Cabrera had more RBI cuz he had close to 100 extra runners on in front of him, which makes sense, ya know, batting 3rd following Austin Jackson, while Trout bats 1st and follows the 8-9 hitters. :lol:

But hey, Triple Crown > Triple threat.
 
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WAR is probably the smartest thing out there in terms of gauging the worth of a player/pitcher even if people refuse to even check it out or admit it.

It takes into account every single statistic that is meaningful toward the actual game, adjusts for home/road parks played in and competition and gives you a quantitative value. I've never said it is the end of all discussions because it does have some minor flaws as everything does. But some of you guys (along with a lot of the old time writers) refuse to admit change and figure out that there are other stats besides your precious counting stats that can acutally help you see deeper into the game. I'm 99% sure that most of you haven't even taken the time to look at these stats, try and grasp an understanding of it and then coming in and denouncing it. It's not even like it's something that's extremely hard to grasp unless you're a toddler. No one is asking you to accept it as the end of the argument but to just keep an open mind to it. There's a reason they're out there and a reason they're being used more and more in front offices everyday. You folks think that just because people use these far out stats or WAR that they don't watch the games and just look at box scores and if you do think that, then I can't help you. I've ever posted nearly the entire glossary for the new advanced stats in this thread before :lol:

An open mind to new things to help you understand and watch the game better isn't a bad thing. Plus, I don't need to even reference WAR to show you Trout is the clear MVP this year :lol:
 
Oh I know for sure he locked it up yesterday. But, same as last year with Verlander getting Cy & MVP, I'm gonna fight it until he gets it :lol:

I would have LOVED to see the reaction of folks if someone would have passed him in HR's. The way people talked you would think he'd be out of the MVP race completely if he didn't win the TC.
 
I love baseball. Best sport in the world. So many incredible moments/storylines in the last couple of days.

Props to Kansas City Royals fans. Not that there are too many on here. But watching Miguel Cabrera get a curtain call on the road was something special and gave me chills.

Oakland A's man. What an incredible story. Watching the passion that they play with on a daily basis is something special. We'll see how far they can get.

Cant wait for friday. Would absolutely love to see the Rangers get bounced out of the playoffs.

Mike Trout and Buster Posey for MVP!!!!

(I realize these thoughts were all over the place. Oh well. Go Giants!)

***EDIT - 15,000th post!!!****
 
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Mez 0ne said:
such an awful mix from Day 1, move made no sense
Click to expand...

That's what got me about his back talk to his coaches yesterday, he had the chance to pick his own coaches and still went back and tossed dirt at them :lol: it'll be interesting to see if ESPN brings him back.
 
Bobby Valentine failed from the start.

NEW YORK -- Before his final game as the Boston Red Sox manager Wednesday, Bobby Valentine walked around the field during batting practice to speak to each of his players, starting at third base and moving to shortstop and eventually making his way to the outfield. He offered handshakes and hugs in what they all certainly understood was a goodbye.

It may have been his best moment with the Red Sox, and it's unfortunate that it came at the very end, long after his future as manager had been decided. Typically, Valentine had mitigated any good feelings earlier in the day by saying on radio that his coaches undermined him -- an honest answer and completely unnecessary and senseless, because it changed nothing other than to slime people who could be looking for jobs in the days ahead.

We can all wonder why Valentine would say what he said, and join the legions of employees in the Red Sox organization -- those in uniform and those out of uniform -- who have asked the same question time and again, since the very first days of spring training. That's when Valentine's tenure as an effective leader of this team ended just as it began, on a practice field at the team's spring training facility.



The Red Sox players had not been happy about the hiring of Valentine, who had a reputation of being exceedingly critical, and as he took over the job, that was a perception he had to work against.



He's not the first, however. Terry Collins was known for an explosive intensity before he was picked as manager of the Mets. He worked hard to adjust -- and as he tempered that part of his personality, the players responded to him, with respect and hard play. Buck Showalter had a reputation among players as an overbearing manager, someone who was difficult to play for, and now the Orioles swear by him, deeply respecting his preparation and loving his humor and love for the game.

Valentine is very smart and, like Collins and Showalter, has a bottomless passion for baseball; maybe, if everything had played out differently, the players would have come to see that. Instead, right away, Valentine reinforced their preconceived notions.

According to sources within the organization, Valentine had asked for a change in the way cutoff plays were run, and when he walked onto a field early in spring training, what he saw almost immediately was that shortstop Mike Aviles was not where he wanted him. Valentine loudly and profanely questioned Aviles' aptitude, others in the organization say. What Valentine did not know at that moment was that the Red Sox players hadn't yet been instructed on where to go in the new cutoff alignment.

Aviles is highly respected, a grinder, and other players were bothered enough by the exchange that three leaders on the team -- Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez -- went to Valentine to express concern and provide context for Aviles' mistake. Gonzalez, sources say, asked Valentine that if he wanted to get on a player verbally, the first baseman would be OK with being a target, because he could take it.

It was a moment that others in the organization now look back on as a crossroad in Valentine's year as manager, because in that instant, he could have gone one of two ways.

He could have listened to the players, embraced what they were saying, called a team meeting the next day and built on the incident. He could have apologized to Aviles and then told all of them, in so many words, Mike, you should know that these three guys over here -- Ortiz, Pedroia and Gonzalez -- have your back and are really good teammates, and that's a great thing. And I'm really feeling good about what we have in this room.

"But it didn't go that way," a member of the organization said.

Valentine did express regret to Aviles. But the players perceived Valentine as being miffed by the situation, as if the players had overreacted to something he believed was innocuous. The players perceived that Valentine thought his authority was being challenged.



Right away, this incident badly damaged the fragile connection between him and the players, and was probably destroyed once and for all by his comments about Kevin Youkilis in April. At the time, Valentine didn't believe his remarks were all that meaningful, and were taken the wrong way by players.

But Pedroia responded forcefully, with words that were designed to support a teammate but effectively ended any chance Valentine could repair his relationship with his clubhouse, because the words defined the wall that existed: "I know Youk plays as hard as anyone I've ever seen in my life and I have his back and his teammates have his back ... I don't really understand what Bobby's trying to do, but that's not the way we go about our stuff around here. I'm sure he'll figure that out soon ... Maybe in Japan or something, but over here in the U.S. we're on a three-game winning streak and we want to feel good and keep it rolling."

It all went downhill from there, through Boston's joyless season, with stories of dysfunction and feuds reaching other clubhouses, like daily reviews of a Kardashian reality show.



In speaking with reporters Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, Valentine indicated he had two regrets from the season -- first, his comments about Youkilis, and second, how he hadn't gotten a handle on the team's bullpen issues in a more timely fashion. There were several instances in which he spoke in the past tense, tellingly.

Then Valentine reached out to his players, for the last time, connecting with them on the field. It was too little and far too late.



Valentine says being the Red Sox manager has been a great life experience, writes Brian MacPherson. For the Red Sox, the 2012 season is a wrap, writes Dan Shaughnessy.

The Red Sox again will ask about the availability of Toronto Blue Jays manager John Farrell. The last days of the Blue Jays' season have been brutal, with the players talking about the lack of leadership.

Ben Cherington took responsibility for what happened.



Elsewhere


• Ozzie Guillen's time in Miami may end quickly, as well; the Marlins have been aggressively searching for a replacement for him.

Dave Hyde writes: Will Jeff Loria save the Marlins from himself? Ozzie's lone regret: His Castro comment. Greg Stoda thinks the Marlins should keep Ozzie.

• During one of the first days that Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder were teammates, back in spring training, Cabrera got into the batting cage and with swing after swing, he blasted line drives to right-center field. Fielder, an accomplished All-Star, watched in amazement. When batting practice ended, Fielder walked over to Cabrera and asked him -- sounding like a fan more than a peer, filled with awe -- "How do you do what you do?"

This is how Cabrera is viewed within the sport, never more than now, when Cabrera is the first player in 45 years to win the Triple Crown.

What a great response the Royals' fans gave to Cabrera. Cabrera has earned his crown, writes Drew Sharp. He is a perfect fit, writes Bob Wojnowski.

• Mike Trout is a tough act to follow.

• As our colleague Orel Hershiser said, watching the Oakland Athletics is like watching a college team, in how much fun they have and how cohesive they are. They have won 68 of their past 101 games, and the end to their season was classic A's, writes Susan Slusser.

The A's are baseball's version of Bigfoot, writes Scott Ostler. They answered all doubts, writes Mark Purdy.

The Rangers' collapse is complete, and now, they'll have to take the road through the wild-card game. Josh Hamilton talked about the fly ball he dropped. Yu Darvish will start the wild-card game against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Rangers lost seven of their last nine games to finish the regular season second in the AL West.



From Elias Sports Bureau: The Rangers spent the most days in first place (178) without winning the division title during the divisional era (since 1969). The '09 Tigers are second with 164, followed by the '07 Mets with 159.

• The Orioles weren't able to win a home game in the Division Series. The Orioles weren't able to put together some magic at the end, writes Peter Schmuck.

• The New York Yankees are rolling into the playoffs, as healthy as they've been all season, with CC Sabathia throwing well and Robinson Cano crushing the ball -- he's got 24 hits in nine games. The Yankees are a very dangerous team right now because of the way their lineup has come together.

The bubbly never gets old for the Yankees -- like Derek Jeter, writes Filip Bondy. The Yankees showed grit, writes Joel Sherman.

• The St. Louis Cardinals have no need to apologize after grinding their way into the postseason, writes Bernie Miklasz. The Cardinals celebrated their clincher.

• Rush hour will be really crazy in Atlanta Friday, as David O'Brien writes.

• The Washington Nationals locked up the No. 1 seed in the NL, writes Adam Kilgore. Davey Johnson felt numbness in his leg.

• The San Francisco Giants are facing Dusty Baker and the Cincinnati Reds. Buster Posey won the batting title.

The Reds finished with 97 wins.

From ESPN Stats and Info, some notes on the season:



• Jeter is the second-oldest player to lead the majors in hits and sixth-oldest with 200-plus hits in a season.
• Bryce Harper's 22 homers are the second-most in a season by a teenager (Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964).
• Adam Dunn's 222 strikeouts are the most in AL history and second-most in MLB history.
• R.A. Dickey (20-6) is the first knuckleballer with 20 wins since Joe Niekro in 1980 and first Mets pitcher since Frank Viola in 1990.
• Cliff Lee is the first pitcher in the modern era to strike out 200-plus batters and have six or fewer wins in a season (Elias).
• Gio Gonzalez (21-8) sets the Nationals/Expos franchise record in wins.
• Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are the first teammates to finish 1-2 in the majors in strikeouts since Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in 2003.
• Jim Johnson's 51 saves are tied for third in AL history and an Orioles' record.
• Craig Kimbrel's 16.7 K per 9 innings is the highest in MLB history (min. 50 IP).
• Fernando Rodney's 0.60 ERA is the lowest in MLB history (min. 50 IP).
• Boston's .436 winning percentage is the club's lowest since 1965.
• The Pirates had their 20th consecutive losing season (longest streak ever among the four major sports).
• The Phillies finish the season with a non-winning record for first time since 2002.

Moves, deals and decisions


1. As Terry Francona gets interviewed by the Cleveland Indians, his personal relationship with the folks in that organization -- Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro, specifically -- is a significant factor. After years in Boston working for owners with whom he was not close, Francona may get the opportunity to work with people he really knows well.



Will Francona go to an organization that will have one of the lowest payrolls in the majors for years to come? Will the Indians pay him a salary suitable for someone who was among the best-paid managers in the game? We'll see.



Sandy Alomar, Jr. will have his interview today.



2. The Blue Jays say they're prepared to overpay. We've heard this time and again, and over and over, their club ownership has pulled the proverbial rug from underneath the front office. The club ownership has been miserly, writes Cathal Kelly.



3. The New York Mets are limited by their budget.



4. The Chicago Cubs fired their third-base coach.



5. The Phillies fired some coaches, and there are more changes coming, writes Bob Brookover. Sam Perlozzo said goodbye.

Dings and dents


1. Matt Kemp is having surgery.



2. Troy Tulowitzki knows he needs to get stronger.

AL Central


• The Indians had a terrible finish to what was a very frustrating season.

• The Chicago White Sox are set to address offseason questions. The White Sox will seek more ways to draw fans.

• The Twins' attention now turns to offseason fixes.

AL West


• Jered Weaver lasted only an inning in his final start. The Angels were hurt by their bullpen, writes Mark Whicker. Jerry Dipoto gets a pass this time around, writes Jeff Miller.

• Geoff Baker assesses the progress of the Seattle Mariners. Eric Wedge thinks the Mariners will get better.

NL Central


• Shelby Miller shined in his first big league start.

• The Houston Astros are headed for a time of drastic changes. Houston finished 55-107, writes Zachary Levine.

• Bryan LaHair's season finished in a great way.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates lost their final game in a frustrating season. It was a sad ending, writes Joe Starkey.

NL West


• Justin Upton very likely will be back with the team, says their chief executive. Ken Kendrick says Upton makes the D-Backs go.

• The Colorado Rockies finished their worst season, as Troy Renck writes.

• Chase Headley won the RBI title.

By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats and Info



5: Hits for the Orioles in their final two games of the season combined.
6: Home runs in four career season finales for Evan Longoria (DNP in 2010 finale).
9: Consecutive multi-hit games to end the season for Robinson Cano, the longest multi-hit streak in the majors this season.
10: Different players to win the Triple Crown since 1920 (when runs batted in became official), inluding Cabrera this season.
25: Home runs for Ryan Zimmerman, the third time he's reached that number in the past four seasons.
42: Saves for Craig Kimbrel, tied for first in the NL for the second straight year. He's the first pitcher in Braves history with multiple seasons leading the league in saves.

Top 10 pitchers in the playoffs.

A number of the best starting pitchers in baseball this year, including Cy Young contenders R.A. Dickey, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Felix Hernandez, won't be pitching in the postseason, but we still have plenty of top arms to watch among the 10 teams who did qualify for the big dance. Here, in reverse order, are the top 10 starting pitchers on postseason rosters, based on how they might perform this month.




10. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants


I might have had Bumgarner higher on the list if he weren't showing possible signs of fatigue with a late-season fade this year, a surprising end to a season in which he appeared to be taking another leap forward into possible Cy Young contention. Earlier in the year, his fastball was maybe a mile an hour faster, but it also was coming out of his hand more easily and was harder for hitters to pick up. His slider had a little more tilt and a little more velocity as well.

Over his past seven starts, he has looked tired, losing some velocity and bite on the breaking ball, with results to match (5.89 ERA in that span). But he's also going to get eight days of rest before his first playoff appearance, and because he insists nothing is seriously wrong, that extra rest could be enough to get us a glimpse of the dominant pitcher Bumgarner, helped by that low slot and long arm action, was for the first two-thirds of the season.




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9. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati Reds


Cueto emerged as the Reds' ace this year, reaching career highs in starts, innings and strikeouts with largely the same repertoire he used in the previous two years. His fastball command was better, as was his overall control, and he's using his cutter slightly more often to keep hitters from sitting on the hard -- but often straight -- fastball. He can be hard for hitters to pick up and the possibility that he'll throw any of four pitches -- excluding the curveball, which he rarely uses -- in any count helps add to the value of the deception in his delivery.




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8. Max Scherzer, RHP, Detroit Tigers


Scherzer led the American League in strikeout rate this year by fanning 29.6 percent of batters, and actually struck out a higher percentage of non-pitchers than the major league leader in strikeout rate, Stephen Strasburg. Scherzer has come a long way since he was in the Arizona Diamondbacks' system and looked like he'd end up in the bullpen because his delivery was so violent that he sometimes couldn't see the plate when he released the ball. He's cleaner now, throwing more strikes, setting hitters up with the best velocity he has shown as a starter and finishing them with the slider. Other than his teammate Justin Verlander, he's the most likely pitcher on this list to have a dominant start this month where he punches out a dozen or so batters.




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7. Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals


I'm still stunned that Wainwright, just a year off Tommy John surgery, threw 198 innings this year at a pretty high level. That's not quite what we're accustomed to from him, but not that far off either, especially if you believe his high BABIP this year was a function of bad luck or lack of defensive support. The best news for the Cardinals, and the reason I've got him stuffed on this list, is that big, beautiful curveball of his, a pitch I worried he might leave on the operating table. It's still his out pitch and it's still among the best in the majors. I wonder if he and teammate Carlos Beltran ever talk about that pitch. Probably not. Might be awkward.




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6. Kris Medlen, RHP, Atlanta Braves


I'll admit to punting slightly on Medlen; you could make a strong case I have him too high, or too low, but I don't think you could make a strong case that I should have omitted him. Medlen has been pitching like an ace the past few months thanks to plus command of three pitches, including an out-pitch changeup that FanGraphs' pitch run values rated as the most valuable in the National League this year. Medlen's curveball was sharper this year, with better depth even than it had prior to his Tommy John surgery, and because Atlanta vacillated on his role and kept him in the bullpen early in the year, they have the good fortune to have Medlen fairly fresh heading into October.




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5. CC Sabathia, LHP, New York Yankees


Sabathia's season was interrupted by two DL stints, including a minor elbow injury that may explain why his stuff was a little shorter this year. That said, his stuff is still better than most left-handers around the game, but not as hard or dominant as Sabathia's stuff was just a year ago, when he was nearly as good as Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. The slider is filthy, with big tilt and a late downward break that has even right-handed hitters swinging over the top, and the changeup remains extremely effective as hitters don't pick it up. But everything is down a tick this year, which may not matter that much in October but has to concern the Yankees a little bit going forward.




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4. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Washington Nationals


When Gio is around the plate, which has been true more often than not this year, he's incredibly tough to hit, and he has also shown me (and Nats fans) that he's capable of being more aggressive and competitive than he was a few years ago when he first reached the majors. What impressed me most about Gio this season, however, was his ability to get outs with his fastball -- swings and misses, called strikes, and even weaker-than-expected contact.



He has had the sharp curveball for years and an adequate changeup, but the fastball coming in a little harder along with improved location around the zone made him a much better pitcher overall. And if you're wondering where I would have put Strasburg on this list, he would have been No. 2. I'm sure having two of the top four starters among all playoff teams wouldn't help your odds of winning a postseason series at all.




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3. Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers


Darvish has remade himself a little bit as a pitcher over the course of his one full season here in MLB, improving his command and control while shifting his repertoire to feature his cutter more. Since his last high-walk start on Aug. 12, Darvish made seven more starts, never walking more than two batters, punching out 59 in 53 innings with a 2.13 ERA. He can get hitters out with multiple pitches, including a slow curveball he throws for strikes, a fastball up to 96, and a hard true slider that is actually his best swing-and-miss pitch, but if the cutter makes him more able to set everything else up, let's go with it.




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2. Matt Cain, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Cain often ends up underrated by advanced metrics that cast a somewhat skeptical eye on his ability to limit hits on balls in play and, in particular, to succeed as a fly ball pitcher who's not homer-prone. He does pitch up in the zone with a fastball that appears to "explode" but never sinks. That's largely an illusion, I'm sure, but one borne out in a way in the resulting statistics: hitters hit the ball in the air, but only rarely square it up well enough to drive it out. Yet traditionalists have similarly underrated Cain because of middling won-lost records or because they lost sight of him behind Tim Lincecum earlier in his career. Cain will work with all four pitches and actually mixed in more off-speed stuff this year, especially his short mid-80s slider, missing more bats than ever even while posting a career-low walk rate.



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1. Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers


Verlander seems almost inhuman with his ability to hold upper-90s velocity through 120 pitches, touching triple digits late in those outings sometimes, while he can also get hitters out with any of this three off-speed pitches, including a changeup that you think hitters would welcome (just for a respite from the heat) but still seem to flail at when he deigns to throw it.



He has been absurdly durable, his arm works great, he repeats his delivery, he throws strikes and he can beat you pretty much any way he wants to. He was the best pitcher in the American League this year, and he was just as indispensable to the Tigers' division crown as the rather well-publicized Miguel Cabrera. If I could pick any starter in baseball to pitch in a one-game playoff for me today, it would be Verlander.

Reds now the team to beat.

The last week of the 2012 season will go down in history as a particularly stressful time in the American League. We're less than 48 hours from the end of the end of the regular season, the divisional crown is still yet to be awarded in the East and West divisions and the Detroit Tigers took until the 160th game to put away the Chicago White Sox. In the Senior Circuit, the Cincinnati Reds had a comparatively easy time, clinching the division title more than a week ago, guaranteeing Cincinnati a spot in the division series.



With the NL Central not being truly up for grabs since the beginning of August, the Reds haven't had much to play for other than playoff seeding and personal pride, the equivalent of putting your feet up by the fireplace compared to the bedlam in the AL.



If we're looking ahead to the playoffs, does one method of making the postseason bode better than the other? Unusual in baseball's mythology is that there are two opposite bits of conventional wisdom on the subject. Some believe that the fire resulting from a successful pennant fight forges the strongest steel and avoids complacency and rust. Others believe that the extra time to recover from the inevitable bumps and bruises of the long season is a team's best weapon. So which is it, if either?

To answer this, I went back through every playoff game to estimate the expected winning percentage for every team in every game, all the way back to the first official baseball playoffs of 1903. The National League and American Association did play a series of informal postseason games in the 19th century, but they were the equivalent of casual barnstorming, so we won't include them.



To estimate a team's expected winning percentage going into each game, I calculated the average of the team's actual win-loss record and the team's Pythagorean win-loss record. The reason I used this method is that it works -- the best predictor, historically, of a team's eventual playoff win-loss record treats the yearly actual and Pythag winning percentages equally. Technically, it's 50.1% Pythag, 49.9% actual, but what's a thousandth between friends?


I then looked at all teams that made the playoffs by an eight-game margin or more, all teams that didn't play any crucial games in the closing days of the season as a result. Based on the games they played in the playoffs, using the expected winning percentage and the odds ratio, you'd expect those winning teams to have a .516 winning percentage in their playoff games against their actual opponents. They actually managed a .542 winning percentage. This may sound like a rather small amount, but it really isn't -- it's actually a bigger boost than home-field advantage cumulatively provides over the course of an entire series. (For the math-friendly, it's a large enough improvement that we can reject the null hypothesis that there is no effect at the 95-percent confidence level.)


On the other end, I looked at teams that made the playoffs by fewer than five games. Their actual playoff winning percentage of .483 fell short of their expected winning percentage of .493. Again, a small, but real margin when we're talking about more than 600 playoff games involving these teams.



That raises the possibility that good teams are simply breaking the odds ratio, but upon checking that, I found it not to be the case. When you consider only teams with similar winning percentages, the teams that had the easier road to the playoffs consistently outperformed the ones with the rockier roads.



With the least stressful path to the postseason, the Reds, already a serious contender, get that little extra boost to their playoff chances. How often does a team have the luxury of playing conservatively with the health of their best player (Joey Votto) during a stretch drive? The Reds enter the playoff season well rested, with a deep bullpen, and essentially the entire roster that got them where they are today healthy and in attendance. You can't say quite the same for the Giants, who are still weaker without their best hitter this year, Melky Cabrera -- they still played well, but it's highly misleading to look at the record in isolation to evaluate Melky's performance -- or the Nationals, who lost Stephen Strasburg to their self-imposed innings limit.



In the end, a small advantage is just that: a small advantage. But with the best teams in baseball very evenly matched, an additional small advantage is extremely valuable. Through baseball history, 44 percent of playoff series have been decided in the final game, so anything that benefits your team to the tune of an extra win, an extra run, or even an extra hit is a pretty big deal. Just ask the 1986 Red Sox what one more good play at the right time would've done.



Neither the Reds nor the other two NL division winners, the Nationals and the Giants, should start selling their championship hats and T-shirts quite yet, but every game the AL's best spend beating up each other makes the World Series championship staying in the NL for the third straight year (last time was 1981) a little bit more likely.
 
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The fear in his eyes
tired.gif


It's been so long for ichrio..he cannot trust such a foreign act a champagne shower to celebrate 
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Medlen's plan for beating St. Louis.

When Fredi Gonzalez hands Kris Medlen the ball and asks him to beat the St. Louis Cardinals, the right-hander will do the same things that for months have made him baseball's best pitcher.



He'll pitch off his fastball, steal strikes with his curveball and frustrate hitters with his changeup. He'll run two-seamers into righties and away from lefties. He'll make some balls look like strikes, and hitters will inevitably swing at them. He'll make some strikes look like cookies, but they'll cut enough, sink enough, fade enough, that hitters won't do much with any of them. Medlen will do all of that, because that's how a 5-foot-10 right-hander without premium velocity wins.



But all of those are nothing without Medlen's natural aggressiveness. He stands tall and pulls his hat low and delivers pitches, as a NL talent evaluator put it, "with conviction." Medlen is not deliberate, and he doesn't pitch away from contact. As he makes his first career playoff start in the National League wild-card game, that should help him.



"You have to throw strikes in the playoffs," a big league pitcher said recently. "Umpires don't want controversial pitches to dictate games on that stage, so you have to throw the ball across the plate."



Medlen will throw strikes. But beyond that, how should he attack St. Louis? With the help of the NL evaluator, here's a batter-by-batter plan for Medlen against the Cardinals.



1. Jon Jay, CF (Bats: Left)

Jay isn't an overly aggressive leadoff hitter, even when a pitcher may be trying to groove one and get a quick strike -- he swung at less than 18 percent of first-pitch fastballs this season, or about half as often as Derek Jeter. That's a chance for Medlen to run a heater away on the outer half and get to 0-1. It's then Medlen's tendency to change speeds, but with Jay, who's trying to spray the ball to a gap, he should stick with the fastball away and force early contact.



"[Medlen's] fastball is 88-91 [mph] but plays a lot better than that because he has plus-command, and it looks like it's in the zone but then sinks out of it," the evaluator said.



If Medlen gets to two strikes, he could go to his changeup but still throw it for a strike. Jay anticipates "waste" pitches, and in 0-2 counts -- when Medlen may try one -- he swings only 17 percent of the time.



When in doubt: Pound the fastball down and away



2. Carlos Beltran, RF (Bats: Both)

Medlen faced Beltran three times in May, and although those few at-bats don't tell us much about Beltran on the whole, what Medlen did worked. He'll likely go back to his same approach of using his fastball to walk Beltran to the ledge and his off-speed to push him over.

Medlen threw first-pitch curveballs for strikes in two of the at-bats. He doubled up on the curve once, and another time used his fastball to set up two changeups away to strike out Beltran.



"His curveball has 12-6 action, but it's a get-me-over pitch," the evaluator said. What Medlen shouldn't do is throw fastballs inside for strikes. Beltran likes those.



When in doubt: Something soft away



3. Matt Holliday, LF (Bats: Right)


Holliday can bait pitchers just by the way he sets up. He's off the plate and quiet, standing upright, his hands tucked behind his right ear. The outside corner looks wide open, as it appears Holliday would need to reach to get there. But watch his feet and upper body. He's a little staggered in the box, his left foot in front over his right, and he steps toward the plate. Because of the way he dives towards the plate and likes to extend his arms, he has much better coverage of the outer third than you would guess from his set-up alone. And this is a little scary: On outer-half fastballs this season, Holliday is slugging .589.


"Medlen likes to throw his breaking ball and changeup off of the two-seamer in," the evaluator said.


That should be how he dances with Holliday, with a right-on-right changeup as his strikeout pitch.


When in doubt: Bust him in to go soft away



4. Allen Craig, 1B (Bats: Right)

It's easy to lose Craig in this lineup because of the names that flank him, but he presents a unique challenge. He can hit the fastball. He can adjust to a breaking ball. He can foul off the tough ones. He can hit a mistake out of the park. This is one where Medlen should simply trust his strength, beginning with back-dooring a two-seamer away.



"When Medlen throws his fastball away to right-handers, the movement back to the corner is very tough," the evaluator said. "A lot of those are taken because of the action on them. They just don't look like strikes."



If Craig's pitch data shows one specific weakness, it could be the changeup. He'll hack at the fastball and wave at the breaking ball like anyone, but there's just something about the changeup for him. He has seen 159 changeups this year and swung at 48 percent of them even though just 45 percent have been in the strike zone. In the four counts Medlen has most often thrown changeups to righties this year -- 1-2, 2-2, 3-1, 3-2 -- Craig has seen 40 changes and offered at 55 percent of them.



When in doubt: Let him chase the change



5. Yadier Molina, C (Bats: Right)

Take Holliday's setup, think the opposite, and you get close to Molina. His right foot is closer to the plate, with his left one set back, and his hands hang over the white line of the batter's box. It seems like he can be beaten inside, but that's an illusion. Molina dares pitchers to throw fastballs inside. Why? Because he kills fastballs inside. Molina has seen 319 inside fastballs this season, and he has a 1.115 OPS against them.



Because Medlen has great command and movement on his fastball, you'd think running it down and in to Molina may work, as that's a tough pitch for a right-handed batter to get to coming from a right-handed pitcher (two most common results: foul ball or a deep bone bruise on the left shin). But Molina has a 1.179 OPS again low-and-in fastballs from righties this season, so maybe that's not the way to go.



Looks like early-count breaking balls away or an outside fastball that misses the barrel by an inch.



When in doubt: Toss it underhand like Henry Rowengartner



6. David Freese, 3B (Bats: Right)

Freese hunts fastballs, and the only place Medlen could get really hurt is in the vertical strip in the middle of the strike zone, where Freese has a .949 OPS. Freese isn't reckless at the plate -- his 10.1 percent walk rate is better than average -- but he has power and likes to take his hacks. Medlen can use that to work off the corner and try to expand the zone.



"Hitters don't ever get comfortable against Medlen because he's always moving off the plate," the evaluator said. "And because his changeup is so good, you have to hit the fastball. If he gets a few inches off the plate, it's over."



If Medlen falls behind, he has two secondary pitches he can throw for strikes at any time.



When in doubt: Expand the zone with the fastball, then adjust



7. Daniel Descalso, 2B (Bats: Left)

Medlen faced Descalso a few times earlier this season and challenged him with fastballs. One day in May when Medlen was feeling surly, he went fastball-change-change-curveball and struck out Descalso. Other than that, it's been heaters, and that treatment still applies, but with an emphasis on the inner third.



Against inside fastballs from righties this season, Descalso has a .478 OPS, and not many of those righties probably could start the fastball at his hip and run it back to the insider corner for a strike like Medlen can. If Descalso is caught cheating on the pitch, a changeup down and away would set him straight.



When in doubt: Challenge him inside



8. Pete Kozma, SS (Bats: Right)

Kozma will find the ball, but he's not going to hit for much power unless he runs into a middle-middle fastball. At this spot in the order, Medlen should choose pitch efficiency over anything else. Throw a fastball in the down zone and let him hit it at a defender. This doesn't always have to be difficult.



When in doubt: Just throw a strike

Orioles must lean on their bullpen.

A Baltimore Orioles fan might put money on the O's to win their wild-card play-in game against the Texas Rangers on Friday night, but a betting man wouldn't, at least with even odds. Then again, by now the betting man might have already gone broke backing Baltimore's opponents.



The Orioles have spent the whole season surprising people. First, they flouted the expectation that they couldn't compete in the AL East, then the near-certainty that they couldn't sustain their early-season success (or, for that matter, their success later in the season). To reach the American League Division Series, they'll have to have one more surprise in store.

The Orioles have drawn a difficult opponent. The Rangers will have their strongest starter, Yu Darvish, on the mound. Texas outscored its regular-season opponents by more than 100 runs; Baltimore's run differential barely broke even. Darvish has posted a 2.13 ERA over his last seven starts, striking out 59 batters against just 10 walks in 50 2/3 innings and looking a lot like the ace the Rangers expected to see when they signed him. Not only will the O's have to defeat Darvish, they'll have to do it in Arlington, where the Rangers have gone 50-31.



And while the Orioles might appear to have more "momentum" in the wake of the Rangers' disappointing denouement, history has taught us that how a team fares leading up to October doesn't help us predict how it will play once the postseason starts.



Darvish's opponent has not yet been named. As we went to press, O's manager Buck Showalter was still deciding between Steve Johnson, a soft-tossing righty with just 38 1/3 big-league innings under his belt, and Joe Saunders, a soft-tossing lefty who's been about league average in his eight-year career. Johnson, whose sore knee was declared good to go after a successful bullpen session on Wednesday, seems likely to get the nod, both because the Rangers excel against southpaws and because Saunders has struggled in Arlington, recording a 9.38 ERA there in six career starts.



In many cases, a team's choice of starter can make a major impact on its odds of success in an elimination game, but neither Johnson nor Saunders would move the needle much more than the other. In a sense, that's appropriate, since the Orioles' rotation has consisted of a largely interchangeable (and often interchanged) cast of characters all season. Either way, as Showalter admitted, the O's will have their work cut out for them.



However, there is a way for the Orioles to tilt the odds away from Texas, if not quite in their own favor: rely on their relievers.



Aside from their record in one-run games (29-9), the Orioles haven't led the AL in anything this year. Their starters have the league's sixth-highest ERA. The O's rank fifth-worst in baserunning and tied for fourth-worst in true average. Their defensive efficiency rates a good-but-not-great fifth-best. But there is one area in which they've stood out: Among AL teams, just the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays -- both of whom play in far more favorable parks for pitchers -- had lower bullpen ERAs than Baltimore's 3.00. Granted, even accounting for Baltimore's above-average defense, some of their successful arms have benefited from luck on balls in play, which could turn at any time. But the bullpen has still been the team's best asset.



A battle of the bullpens would favor Baltimore, especially with Mike Adams unavailable for Texas. Getting to the Rangers' relievers could prove difficult -- Yu Darvish hasn't had an outing shorter than 6 1/3 innings in over two months -- but the Orioles can ensure that their own enter the fray early.



On Wednesday, Dave Cameron argued that the A's should bypass or keep an extremely short leash on starter A.J. Griffin in their own decisive showdown with Texas, which proved prescient when Griffin was roughed up in the third inning and removed with the Rangers up 5-1. The A's were able to recover from that deficit -- hardly the deepest hole they've dug themselves out of this season -- but they made it more difficult by letting Griffin go too long.



As Cameron observed, starters become markedly less effective each time through an order. In the regular season, teams have to live with that loss of effectiveness, since they can't afford to burn their bullpens every night. But in an elimination game, when a loss signifies the end of the season, that concern is secondary.


Anthony Gruppuso/US Presswire
Darren O'Day has been one of several highly effective relievers for the Orioles this season.If anything, the Orioles are a better candidate for the bullpen-heavy blueprint than the A's were. Oakland went into its 162nd game with a tired bullpen, and Griffin might have been more likely to have a successful start than either Johnson or Saunders. But the Orioles can tailor their roster for the play-in game and stock their 'pen with as many arms as they want. And with Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Luis Ayala, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton, and a trio of converted starters -- Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Tommy Hunter -- at their disposal, the O's bullpen is deep enough that if they were feeling adventurous, they could bypass their starters completely.

We won't see a strategy as extreme as the all-reliever approach. It could be risky to ask players to try something new in a game with no margin for error, and Showalter himself could take some heat if he strays too far from convention and doesn't emerge with a win. However, the Orioles should strongly consider removing their starter after he's faced every Ranger once, even if he's cruising. A few effective innings is no guarantee of continued success, and by the time a starter runs into trouble, it could be too late to warm up someone in time to prevent runs from scoring. If the Orioles were to run through most of their relievers en route to a win, they would have Saturday to recover before facing the Yankees in the series opener on Sunday, when Jason Hammel -- their most consistent starter this season -- could be available to pitch.

The Orioles owe much of their success this season to the quality of their bullpen's work in high-leverage situations and the quantity of its work overall. They've gotten more innings out of their 'pen this season than all but three other teams, and 30 more innings than any other playoff team. Despite that innings total, no Orioles reliever ranks among the top 10 in baseball in innings or appearances, which is a testament to their depth. Because of that depth, the O's can afford to double down and go with what got them here. The Rangers saw how valuable good bullpens can be last October, when manager Ron Washington rode his relievers hard, and they saw how vulnerable starters can be on Wednesday, when the A's let them get out to an early lead. The Orioles should learn from the A's mistake and give Washington a taste of his own medicine tomorrow.

Key matchups in winner-take-all games.

The most intriguing matchups in today's winner-take-all wildcard games:



1. The Rangers' lineup against Buck Showalter's bullpen



Joe Saunders is getting the start for Baltimore, but the roster rules for the one-game playoff suit a manager who is really good at running a bullpen. Showalter will have a full array of relief options at his disposal in this game, and presumably, he won't be shy in calling on them when necessary. For example: It would be a shock if the left-handed hitting Josh Hamilton faces a right-hander today, unless it's closer Jim Johnson, because Showalter can repeatedly summon lefties from his bullpen. And generally speaking, the Rangers are heavy in right-handed hitters, with Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli and Michael Young, meaning that Showalter can call on righties to face strings of right-handed hitters. (Although as you can see by the numbers below, Beltre has had much more success against right-handers than lefties this year.)



Baltimore must turn in its roster by 10 a.m. today, as Roch Kubatko writes, but you can bet the Orioles will be heavy in relief options.



Some of the noteworthy lefty-right splits to keep in mind today:



Hamilton OPS vs. right-handers: .965. Versus left-handers: .853
Beltre OPS vs. right-handers: .984. Versus left-handers: .737
Kinsler OPS vs. right-handers: .671. Versus left-handers: .988
Darren O'Day vs. opposing right-handed hitters: .584 OPS. LH hitters: .664
Pedro Strop vs. opposing RH hitters: .556 OPS. LH hitters: .674

2. Yu Darvish and Kris Medlen vs. Their Jitters



The Rangers brought Darvish on board with the idea of bringing him along slowly as a complementary part of their rotation, and they worked to avoid putting him in the spotlight early in this season. But now all the pressure is on Darvish, in his first year with the team, because a lot of pitching staff has been compromised by injury or subpar performance.



Darvish has been better late in the season, because his command has been better. From ESPN Stats & Information:



6: Losses for Yu Darvish when he does not throw at least 60 percent first-pitch strikes.
6: Consecutive starts Yu Darvish has thrown at least 60 percent first-pitch strikes.

Medlen is a confident pitcher, writes David O'Brien. From his story:


[W]hen a reporter prefaced a question about one of his eye-popping statistics recently by saying "beyond the streak, which is obviously going to end at some point...," a little voice from Medlen's vicinity goes, "nuh uh."



It went unnoticed, so Medlen came back with: "Will it?"



The question was more of an answer, really, and a nod to the power of his capacity for positive thinking. The former 10th round pick of the Braves is 5-foot-10 -- maybe with his hair spiked up -- and his fastball tops out at about 92, but he is a sports psychologist's dream. For those who preach picturing the positive, Medlen is a poster boy. What images can he conjure up at this point that don't look good?

How will Kyle Lohse handle the moment? Well, he might be the most relaxed personality in the sport, even on the days he pitches. Lohse expects better results in this game. He thought he tipped pitches last time out.



3. The Rangers Vs. Their Psyche



Think about everything this team has been through over the last 25 months. They lost the World Series in 2010, twice came within a strike of winning the 2011 World Series before losing, and now they're on the verge of one of the most notable late-season collapses in history; within the sport, they were viewed as strong favorites to play deep into October at the very least, and today, Ron Washington or Adrian Beltre or Michael Young or others must find a way to get the Rangers beyond the doubt that must be curdling within this team.



The Rangers have one game to save their season.



4. Josh Hamilton Vs. Josh Hamilton



He's been regarded as the most talented players in the sport, and yet time and again, Hamilton seems to beat himself, either with impatience at the plate or some drift in his concentration. "He must be really frustrating for the other players on that team," said one longtime evaluator Thursday, the day after Hamilton dropped a fly ball -- the latest in a series of defensive he has made late in this season.



Early in last year's playoffs, Hamilton kept swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and struggled, and then late in the Rangers' ALCS series against Detroit, he locked down his discipline and was really good for the rest of the postseason.



Which Hamilton will show up? We'll see.



5. NL baserunners vs. The Stacked Odds



There will be some really good baserunners on the NL wildcard game, like Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward and Jon Jay. But in all likelihood, there will be few runners on the move because, quite simply, nobody runs on Lohse (who allowed only six steals in 10 attempts all year); almost nobody runs on Yadier Molina, who threw out 35 of the 73 baserunners who tried to steal against him; nobody runs on Medlen, who surrendered only five steals this year (on seven attempts); and almost nobody runs on David Ross, who will be the Braves' catcher today -- opponents have just 19 steals in 34 attempts against him.



Ross is getting the start for the Braves today. From ESPN Stats & Info, Medlen in pitching to Ross has a .081 ERA, has allowed an opponents batting average of .190, OPS of .488, and not a single stolen base. This is in 44 1/1 innings pitched. Not bad.



6. Managers Vs. The Trigger Finger



Fredi Gonzalez has an incredible weapon at his disposal in Craig Kimbrel, and all during the regular season, Gonzalez was disciplined in holding out Kimbrel until the Braves had a lead. There was only one game in which Kimbrel was asked to get more than three outs. But this game, with everything on the line, presents a far different set of parameters. To review: Kimbrel had 116 strikeouts and 14 walks in 62.2 innings this season, and allowed earned runs twice in the last three months of the season.



Gonzalez said earlier this year that he learned a lot from watching the aggressiveness of another manager -- Tony La Russa -- who may have been the best manager ever at running a bullpen and creating matchups. Gonzalez and Mike Matheny will have the opportunity to do the same today.



Gonzalez and pitching coach Roger McDowell will have to figure out when the right time will be to summon Kimbrel, who has come in with runners on base only twice this year (and stranded all four runners he inherited). They'll have to figure out when the right time to go to Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters. And Gonzalez and Mike Matheny and Showalter and Ron Washington will have to decide when to play the many roster cards available to them.



7. The St. Louis bullpen Vs. Atlanta's left-handed hitters



The Braves are perceived to be more vulnerable against lefties, because most of the guys who have made up the top of their order hit left-handed, with Bourn, Heyward and Freddie Freeman. But the Cardinals haven't had strong left-handed relief options this year; rather, Matheny might choose to go with a more effective right-hander, like the very underrated Mitchell Boggs, when facing the left-handed portion of the Braves' lineup.



8. Joe Nathan Vs. The Postseason Ledge



The Texas reliever has had an excellent first season for the Rangers, picking up 37 saves, but his history in the postseason -- comprised almost entirely of games against the Yankees -- has not been good. He's allowed seven earned runs, seven walks and 12 hits in eight innings. He'd welcome a fresh opportunity.



9. Chris Davis Vs. His Old Team



He had several opportunities to establish himself as the Rangers first baseman, and it just didn't work out -- and now, he's one of the hottest hitters in the majors, while playing right field for the Orioles. Davis has homered in six of his last seven games, with 13 RBI. Up until now, he has struggled against Texas, with two singles and nine strikeouts in 17 at-bats.



10. Chipper Jones Vs. The Moment



It's hard to believe that today could be the last as a Major Leaguer for the future Hall of Famer, and at some point today, he probably will come up in a big spot, for an at-bat that will be the cherry on top of his legacy. Jones has fared well against Lohse in the past, with six hits in 13 at-bats, including two doubles and a homer.



The Braves could change their image with a win today, writes Jeff Schultz.



Notables


• Jim Tracy could find out today if he's going to be fired.

• From ESPN Stats and Info: Yu Darvish makes his career start vs. Orioles today, and he's 10-3 this season when facing opponents for first time, with a 3.13 ERA. After he's faced a team, his ERA has jumped to 4.67 in subsequent matchups.


• Ann Killion is looking for a Bay Bridge series.

• Madison Bumgarner is getting the ball in Game 2 of the playoffs.

• Buster Posey is the epitome of an MVP, writes Alex Pavlovic.

• The Nationals must wait and wonder, as Adam Kilgore writes. Through the years, Ryan Zimmerman's spirit has persisted.

• Alex Rodriguez says he will be fine in the postseason, writes Anthony McCarron. This year, Rafael Soriano will have to fill in at closer.

• Prince Fielder thinks Miguel Cabrera is the best ever. For Jim Leyland, there is tension and triumph. Leyland's status is still up in the air, as Tom Gage writes. Justin Verlander did a really cool thing for Cabrera.

• The Tigers' rotation makes them dangerous, writes Bob Wojnowski.

• Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier have been a dynamic duo, writes John Erardi.


Moves, deals and decisions

1. Whoever replaces Bobby Valentine as the Red Sox manager is going to have a tremendous opportunity to be embraced by the players, and to build something really strong going forward, because the change is so welcomed. John Farrell is, as has been reported for weeks, Boston's top target.

The Red Sox are looking for a fresh start, writes Tim Britton.

On Thursday, the Red Sox officials did not criticize Valentine in any way, and that's the way it should be. They've moved on, and it makes no sense for them to pile onto the criticism that Valentine has already received. The Red Sox did well in moving quickly, writes Dan Shaughnessy. It was a year of chaos, writes Alex Speier.

2. It may be time for the Jays to trade John Farrell, writes Bob Elliott. Toronto should treat Farrell's situation as it would with all impending free agents, because Farrell's contract runs through the end of next year. If they aren't sure they want him past 2013, or even next year -- or if they are certain he will walk away -- then they should just make their best trade with the Red Sox now and move on to pick a manager they can build with (like Torey Lovullo).

3. Others in the Marlins organization are encouraging owner Jeffrey Loria to fire Ozzie Guillen, writes Joe Capozzi. Loria is mulling a decision, writes Clark Spencer.

4. Now that Ryne Sandberg has been promoted onto Charlie Manuel's coaching staff, there is speculation in Philadelphia that he's the manager in waiting. Manuel says he's comfortable with the changes, and with his contract, as Jim Salisbury writes. If the Phillies get off to a bad start next year, the speculation about Manuel's job will begin early.

5. The Pirates' hitting coach is leaving.

6. The Royals fired hitting coach Kevin Seitzer ). Eric Hosmer, who slumped early, says he (Hosmer) overreacted.

7. Chris Antonetti has high hopes for his next manager. He doesn't expect economics will be a factor.

8. The Brewers will be looking for a veteran starter this winter.

9. The Twins fired some people.

10. The Diamondbacks are looking for infield help.

11. Hitting coach Chris Chambliss was fired.

12. The Rays will not move from their pitching-heavy philosophy.

Dings and dents

• Paul Konerko had surgery.


AL East

• Evan Longoria's health is a key issue for the Rays.


AL Central

• Chris Perez needs a better filter, says his boss.

• The late collapse of the White Sox still hurts.


AL West

• Geoff Baker addresses the question of whether the timing is right for the Mariners to spend in the free agent market.


NL Central

• Theo Epstein says Cubs fans shouldn't expect a quick fix.


NL West

• The Dodgers are not raising their ticket prices. Dee Gordon looks like he'll be the odd man out.
 
The more I think about it, the more I lean 50/50 Verlander & Price than I did before. It's crazy that Verlander's numbers are not that different from last year and he won in a landslide :lol:
 
I have no idea who to pick. I could see both games being 1-0 tight games or 9-8 barnburners. Gun to my head, Atlanta and Texas.
 
Yea, I don't have a good feeling about the O's pulling it out...The Rangers slid pretty bad in Sept but Darvish went undefeated with an ERA for like 1.9....
 
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