Then you're overrating Shields and Davis and underrating the prospects they got back, the players they acquired and the players they're using to replace what they lost. And you're overrating Baltimore too.
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Then you're overrating Shields and Davis and underrating the prospects they got back, the players they acquired and the players they're using to replace what they lost. And you're overrating Baltimore too.
How to catch the Blue Jays.
New CBA a problem for free agents.
Rumors.
The busy offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays continued over the weekend, with the team acquiring NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets in a seven-player trade. Toronto's complete overhaul of the rotation looks to be done, but is it enough to fend off the rest of the division?
There's no question that the Jays gave up a lot of value to bring Dickey across the border. As Keith Law outlined Monday, Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are legitimately excellent prospects and the odds are strong that one or both will succeed with the Mets.
Projecting Dickey
Dickey isn't a short-term fix because typical aging patterns don't apply to knuckleballers. We looked at the issue more deeply in a recent issue of ESPN The Magazine and found that when it came to innings remaining, a 38-year-old knuckler could be considered to be in about the same position as a "conventional" 33- or 34-year-old pitcher.
Year IP ERA K WAR
2013 194.2 3.88 149 4.0
2014 194.2 4.11 142 3.5
2015 191.1 4.33 136 2.8
2016 180.0 4.35 128 2.7
That being said, pitchers of Dickey's value don't come cheaply and the acquisition makes perfect sense when examined against the backdrop of the other moves the Blue Jays made this season. Unlike a team like the Kansas City Royals, Toronto has a base of talent strong enough that a win-now trade is warranted. The ZiPS projection system estimated that the Jays' big trade with the Miami Marlins put the estimated talent level of the Toronto roster at around 90 wins, and this trade pushes that figure even higher.
Dickey's unlikely to be nearly 6 wins above replacement again in the American League in 2012 -- pitchers aren't immune to regression and he's moving to a league and park that will likely result in more homers allowed -- but he doesn't need to be a Cy Young winner in 2013 to push Toronto's playoff chances forward. The ZiPS projection system projects Dickey at a 3.88 ERA in 194⅔ innings in Toronto, good enough to be a 4-WAR season. Coupled with the Melky Cabrera signing, ZiPS now estimates the talent of Toronto's roster at 93 wins, making the Blue Jays the early favorites going into the season.
Now the question that remains is just how the rest of the division responds to this trade. Moves aren't made in a vacuum, after all, so the strength of the competition is something that has to be taken into consideration in any kind of offseason planning. So, what, if anything, could the rest of the division do to answer this trade?
The Tampa Bay Rays already made their big move of the winter, acquiring Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields, and are unlikely to answer with another big move of their own. Their payroll situation is tight, and unlike the New York Yankees, their payroll limits are out of necessity rather than preference. Shields is likely more valuable in 2013 than Wil Myers, but Myers fills a more pressing need for the team long term. ZiPS has the Rays at 88 wins right now (see table).
The Yankees are up against a self-imposed salary cap, so unless they choose to ignore it, the upgrades available to the team are limited. Even assuming the Ichiro contract is a done deal and Kevin Youkilis is a solid DH when A-Rod eventually returns around midseason, the team could still use the outfield help. Even most of the second-tier outfielders like Shane Victorino and Ryan Ludwick are gone and the corner outfield options essentially consist of eating crow and bringing back Nick Swisher or a large drop-off to Delmon Young or Scott Hairston. New York still projects in the mid-to-high 80s in wins as there's still talent on the roster, but there's serious downside here.
Projected standings
As of Dec. 18, the Jays are the clear favorite in the AL East.
Team W L PCT GB
Toronto 93 69 .574 --
Tampa Bay 88 74 .543 5
New York 87 75 .537 6
Boston 85 77 .525 8
Baltimore 77 85 .475 16
The Boston Red Sox were projected at 76 wins last month with their on-hand talent, but assuming the Mike Napoli signing is finalized, him plus the additions of Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes have boosted their mean win projection by about 10 wins. The team could still theoretically decide to overpay Swisher, but the lineup is probably set at this point. Edwin Jackson's probably the best signing left the team could make.
The biggest loser in the AL East moves has been the Baltimore Orioles, now in likely the most precarious position of any AL East team. The O's were projected to win 80 games as of a month ago, but with the aggressive improvements of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the 2013 returns of Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera and the Rays nicely solving their Shields conundrum, the O's position has eroded. Last season was a fun ride, but rather than take 2012 as a sign that the time was right to really go for some quality additions, the big moves have been re-signing Nate McLouth and acquiring Danny Valencia. After missing out on most free agents and likely unwilling to move Adam Jones to left to give them a reason to sign Michael Bourn, the O's practically need to bring in one of Jackson, Swisher or Kyle Lohse to save the offseason from being a categorical failure.
Toronto's fan base ought to be nothing but smiles on Tuesday. The Jays, on paper, are likely the best team in the AL East right now. Pennants are won on the field, of course, but Toronto's offseason revamping has been astonishing. We don't know yet if the wins will materialize, but despite what sports movies always tell us, being the favorite is a better position than being the underdog.
There's no question that the Jays gave up a lot of value to bring Dickey across the border. As Keith Law outlined Monday, Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are legitimately excellent prospects and the odds are strong that one or both will succeed with the Mets.
Projecting Dickey
Dickey isn't a short-term fix because typical aging patterns don't apply to knuckleballers. We looked at the issue more deeply in a recent issue of ESPN The Magazine and found that when it came to innings remaining, a 38-year-old knuckler could be considered to be in about the same position as a "conventional" 33- or 34-year-old pitcher.
Year IP ERA K WAR
2013 194.2 3.88 149 4.0
2014 194.2 4.11 142 3.5
2015 191.1 4.33 136 2.8
2016 180.0 4.35 128 2.7
That being said, pitchers of Dickey's value don't come cheaply and the acquisition makes perfect sense when examined against the backdrop of the other moves the Blue Jays made this season. Unlike a team like the Kansas City Royals, Toronto has a base of talent strong enough that a win-now trade is warranted. The ZiPS projection system estimated that the Jays' big trade with the Miami Marlins put the estimated talent level of the Toronto roster at around 90 wins, and this trade pushes that figure even higher.
Dickey's unlikely to be nearly 6 wins above replacement again in the American League in 2012 -- pitchers aren't immune to regression and he's moving to a league and park that will likely result in more homers allowed -- but he doesn't need to be a Cy Young winner in 2013 to push Toronto's playoff chances forward. The ZiPS projection system projects Dickey at a 3.88 ERA in 194⅔ innings in Toronto, good enough to be a 4-WAR season. Coupled with the Melky Cabrera signing, ZiPS now estimates the talent of Toronto's roster at 93 wins, making the Blue Jays the early favorites going into the season.
Now the question that remains is just how the rest of the division responds to this trade. Moves aren't made in a vacuum, after all, so the strength of the competition is something that has to be taken into consideration in any kind of offseason planning. So, what, if anything, could the rest of the division do to answer this trade?
The Tampa Bay Rays already made their big move of the winter, acquiring Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields, and are unlikely to answer with another big move of their own. Their payroll situation is tight, and unlike the New York Yankees, their payroll limits are out of necessity rather than preference. Shields is likely more valuable in 2013 than Wil Myers, but Myers fills a more pressing need for the team long term. ZiPS has the Rays at 88 wins right now (see table).
The Yankees are up against a self-imposed salary cap, so unless they choose to ignore it, the upgrades available to the team are limited. Even assuming the Ichiro contract is a done deal and Kevin Youkilis is a solid DH when A-Rod eventually returns around midseason, the team could still use the outfield help. Even most of the second-tier outfielders like Shane Victorino and Ryan Ludwick are gone and the corner outfield options essentially consist of eating crow and bringing back Nick Swisher or a large drop-off to Delmon Young or Scott Hairston. New York still projects in the mid-to-high 80s in wins as there's still talent on the roster, but there's serious downside here.
Projected standings
As of Dec. 18, the Jays are the clear favorite in the AL East.
Team W L PCT GB
Toronto 93 69 .574 --
Tampa Bay 88 74 .543 5
New York 87 75 .537 6
Boston 85 77 .525 8
Baltimore 77 85 .475 16
The Boston Red Sox were projected at 76 wins last month with their on-hand talent, but assuming the Mike Napoli signing is finalized, him plus the additions of Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes have boosted their mean win projection by about 10 wins. The team could still theoretically decide to overpay Swisher, but the lineup is probably set at this point. Edwin Jackson's probably the best signing left the team could make.
The biggest loser in the AL East moves has been the Baltimore Orioles, now in likely the most precarious position of any AL East team. The O's were projected to win 80 games as of a month ago, but with the aggressive improvements of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the 2013 returns of Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera and the Rays nicely solving their Shields conundrum, the O's position has eroded. Last season was a fun ride, but rather than take 2012 as a sign that the time was right to really go for some quality additions, the big moves have been re-signing Nate McLouth and acquiring Danny Valencia. After missing out on most free agents and likely unwilling to move Adam Jones to left to give them a reason to sign Michael Bourn, the O's practically need to bring in one of Jackson, Swisher or Kyle Lohse to save the offseason from being a categorical failure.
Toronto's fan base ought to be nothing but smiles on Tuesday. The Jays, on paper, are likely the best team in the AL East right now. Pennants are won on the field, of course, but Toronto's offseason revamping has been astonishing. We don't know yet if the wins will materialize, but despite what sports movies always tell us, being the favorite is a better position than being the underdog.
New CBA a problem for free agents.
When the terms of the new labor agreement were negotiated a year ago, the rules about draft-pick compensation were changed in an effort to help free agents.
In the past, there had been instances of second- or third-tier players not getting offers because teams didn't want to surrender the required draft-pick compensation. Most famously, Juan Cruz -- a journeyman middle reliever who had some good numbers -- was once classified as a Type A free agent, and because signing Cruz meant sacrificing a top draft pick, nobody pursued him for months, and he eventually signed a modest, two-year, $6 million deal with the Kansas City Royals.
The new rules were designed to ensure that only elite free agents, who received $13.3 million qualifying offers from their former teams, were attached to draft-pick compensation. The hope was that the compensation wouldn't hinder the players at all this winter.
But that's not how it's playing out, in the eyes of some general managers and agents. It's not a coincidence, in their eyes, that some of the biggest free agents still on the board are players tied to draft-pick compensation -- most notably Rafael Soriano. "He's a good pitcher," said one GM, "but I don't think teams are wild about giving up a draft pick for a reliever."
Especially in light of other rule changes -- the draft and international signing spending caps, which prevent teams that sign top free agents from making up for lost picks by splurging on picks in later rounds. Because teams have constrained opportunity to improve their organizations through the draft, they are more reluctant to surrender picks.
This didn't affect an elite player such as Josh Hamilton. But Soriano, Adam LaRoche, Kyle Lohse and Nick Swisher -- all unsigned, to this point -- are not in that category.
"You know who the luckiest [free agents] were?" asked one GM rhetorically. "Those guys who got traded in midseason."
Shane Victorino, for example, and Anibal Sanchez. Because they were dealt after the season opened, they were no longer subject to draft-pick compensation, which probably helped their chances of getting big-money contracts.
Consider how the Boston Red Sox did their picking and choosing among free agents:
• Victorino, traded in midseason.
• Ryan Dempster, traded in midseason -- also not tied to draft-pick compensation.
• Mike Napoli, who was not given a qualifying offer by the Texas Rangers; no draft-pick compensation. (The Red Sox and Napoli are still haggling over a restructuring of his deal, after red flags popped up in his medicals.)
• Like Napoli, neither Jonny Gomes nor David Ross received a qualifying offer and were not tied to draft-pick compensation.
This is not a coincidence. LaRoche has been sitting on a two-year offer for weeks from the Nationals, and while he might fit the Rangers or the Chicago White Sox, the fact that he would cost a top draft pick is really hurting him.
There are some teams that still have money to spend in the last half of the offseason, such as the Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs and Rangers. But some officials believe that the draft-pick compensation has become a real factor in the size and scope of the offers.
For example: In theory, the Cubs could be interested in someone like Michael Bourn, a proven performer. But because they know they would have to surrender a top pick to sign him, their deal with him would have to be team friendly -- a contract that would essentially account for what the team perceives to be the value of the draft pick being surrendered. (In their case, a second-round pick, as the top 10 picks of the draft are protected, and the Cubs hold the No. 2 overall pick.)
"You've got to keep your picks, because there aren't as many ways to get better as there used to be," said one official.
Nobody can fully forecast the impact of a new of rules until they're put into use, and the loopholes and the problems are then exposed by smart executives and agents. It seems that once again, an adjustment will be needed with the draft-pick compensation rules in the next round of negotiations. Maybe the qualifying offers should be comprised of three years, instead of one. If the New York Yankees had been required to offer Soriano a three-year deal at $13.3 million annually in order to recoup a draft pick, there is no chance they would've done that, and Soriano would have hit the market free and clear.
As it stands, however, he is now in draft-pick purgatory. The Yankees almost certainly won't consider taking him back because they would prefer the draft pick (and don't have room in their budget for him, anyway), and some teams that engage with him probably will be looking for a discount to offset the value of the pick they'd have to give up to sign him.
Draft pick compensation was designed to provide a team some relief after they lost a significant player. It was never meant to be a drag on the player's market value in free agency. For some free agents, the system continues to be a drag.
Around the league
The Cleveland Indians gave Swisher a full Buckeye treatment, writes Paul Hoynes.
The Mariners have found out it's all about timing, in their rebuilding.
• The Rangers met with A.J. Pierzynski, writes Gerry Fraley. He'd be a good fit now for the Rangers, who need left-handed hitting and can utilize him in a designated hitter-catcher role.
• By the way: The Cubs never thought they were on the cusp of signing Anibal Sanchez. They thought they were fighting an uphill battle to wrest him away from the Tigers -- and they lost.
• Ichiro told the Athletics he thinks that Hiroyuki Nakajima will hit in the big leagues. After watching this video, I think the biggest question will be whether Nakajima's throwing arm is strong enough to play shortstop in the majors. Mike Bordick didn't have a strong arm and made it work, and the same could be said for Omar Vizquel in the latter half of his career.
Oakland's investment in Nakajima, $6.5 million over two years, is modest enough to give the Athletics some flexibility in evaluating and placing him. If Nakajima -- a Gold Glove shortstop in Japan -- plays the position well enough, the Athletics will have good value. If not, he can be shifted into more of a utility role and Oakland can seek an alternative in midseason.
Nakajima definitely has a strong presence, and a sense of humor, as Susan Slusser writes. This was an Athletics' ripple versus the Angels' big splash, writes Ron Kroichick.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Phil Mickelson says he won't be part of the Padres' ownership group.
2. Adam Wainwright is going into his contract year.
3. Pete Rose Jr. was picked to manage.
4. The Milwaukee Brewers made some minor changes.
5. Washington's roster is good, but not complete, writes Adam Kilgore.
6. Michael Young and John Lannan were introduced, and Ruben Amaro talked about the outfield situation.
7. Peter Schmuck wonders: Are other teams leaving the Baltimore Orioles behind?
8. Joba Chamberlain called Kevin Youkilis to bury the hatchet, writes Mark Feinsand.
9. The Braves are still looking for a left fielder, writes David O'Brien. From his piece:
After all going into the season with what they have now does seem a bit more feasible and less risky than it would've if they had stated that intention a few weeks ago, after signing center fielder B.J. Upton. More feasible because they later since re-signed outfielder Reed Johnson, and less risky because Juan Francisco has continued to make what the Braves believe to be significant strides during winter ball in the Dominican Republic, where he's slimmed down some and kept working on his swing.
From what I gather, the Braves would be fairly comfortable going into the season with Martin Prado splitting time with Reed Johnson in left field and splitting time with Francisco at third base, and saving the extra funds for a big in-season trade or two as needs arise.
In that scenario, Prado would play every day but at a couple of positions once again -- he has proved that playing multiple positions doesn't affect his offense the way it does some players -- and Johnson and Francisco would play mostly against pitchers they handle best, lefties for Johnson and righties for Francisco.
In that scenario, Prado or second-year shortstop Andrelton Simmons probably would bat leadoff.
10. The Tampa Bay Rays lead the majors in rebuilding value in pitchers, and they view Roberto Hernandez -- the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- as an interesting gamble. It has always been about command for Carmona, who was absolutely dominant in 2007.
11. Kevin Towers hopes that Arizona Diamondbacks fans understand the moves he has made.
In the past, there had been instances of second- or third-tier players not getting offers because teams didn't want to surrender the required draft-pick compensation. Most famously, Juan Cruz -- a journeyman middle reliever who had some good numbers -- was once classified as a Type A free agent, and because signing Cruz meant sacrificing a top draft pick, nobody pursued him for months, and he eventually signed a modest, two-year, $6 million deal with the Kansas City Royals.
The new rules were designed to ensure that only elite free agents, who received $13.3 million qualifying offers from their former teams, were attached to draft-pick compensation. The hope was that the compensation wouldn't hinder the players at all this winter.
But that's not how it's playing out, in the eyes of some general managers and agents. It's not a coincidence, in their eyes, that some of the biggest free agents still on the board are players tied to draft-pick compensation -- most notably Rafael Soriano. "He's a good pitcher," said one GM, "but I don't think teams are wild about giving up a draft pick for a reliever."
Especially in light of other rule changes -- the draft and international signing spending caps, which prevent teams that sign top free agents from making up for lost picks by splurging on picks in later rounds. Because teams have constrained opportunity to improve their organizations through the draft, they are more reluctant to surrender picks.
This didn't affect an elite player such as Josh Hamilton. But Soriano, Adam LaRoche, Kyle Lohse and Nick Swisher -- all unsigned, to this point -- are not in that category.
"You know who the luckiest [free agents] were?" asked one GM rhetorically. "Those guys who got traded in midseason."
Shane Victorino, for example, and Anibal Sanchez. Because they were dealt after the season opened, they were no longer subject to draft-pick compensation, which probably helped their chances of getting big-money contracts.
Consider how the Boston Red Sox did their picking and choosing among free agents:
• Victorino, traded in midseason.
• Ryan Dempster, traded in midseason -- also not tied to draft-pick compensation.
• Mike Napoli, who was not given a qualifying offer by the Texas Rangers; no draft-pick compensation. (The Red Sox and Napoli are still haggling over a restructuring of his deal, after red flags popped up in his medicals.)
• Like Napoli, neither Jonny Gomes nor David Ross received a qualifying offer and were not tied to draft-pick compensation.
This is not a coincidence. LaRoche has been sitting on a two-year offer for weeks from the Nationals, and while he might fit the Rangers or the Chicago White Sox, the fact that he would cost a top draft pick is really hurting him.
There are some teams that still have money to spend in the last half of the offseason, such as the Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs and Rangers. But some officials believe that the draft-pick compensation has become a real factor in the size and scope of the offers.
For example: In theory, the Cubs could be interested in someone like Michael Bourn, a proven performer. But because they know they would have to surrender a top pick to sign him, their deal with him would have to be team friendly -- a contract that would essentially account for what the team perceives to be the value of the draft pick being surrendered. (In their case, a second-round pick, as the top 10 picks of the draft are protected, and the Cubs hold the No. 2 overall pick.)
"You've got to keep your picks, because there aren't as many ways to get better as there used to be," said one official.
Nobody can fully forecast the impact of a new of rules until they're put into use, and the loopholes and the problems are then exposed by smart executives and agents. It seems that once again, an adjustment will be needed with the draft-pick compensation rules in the next round of negotiations. Maybe the qualifying offers should be comprised of three years, instead of one. If the New York Yankees had been required to offer Soriano a three-year deal at $13.3 million annually in order to recoup a draft pick, there is no chance they would've done that, and Soriano would have hit the market free and clear.
As it stands, however, he is now in draft-pick purgatory. The Yankees almost certainly won't consider taking him back because they would prefer the draft pick (and don't have room in their budget for him, anyway), and some teams that engage with him probably will be looking for a discount to offset the value of the pick they'd have to give up to sign him.
Draft pick compensation was designed to provide a team some relief after they lost a significant player. It was never meant to be a drag on the player's market value in free agency. For some free agents, the system continues to be a drag.
Around the league
The Cleveland Indians gave Swisher a full Buckeye treatment, writes Paul Hoynes.
The Mariners have found out it's all about timing, in their rebuilding.
• The Rangers met with A.J. Pierzynski, writes Gerry Fraley. He'd be a good fit now for the Rangers, who need left-handed hitting and can utilize him in a designated hitter-catcher role.
• By the way: The Cubs never thought they were on the cusp of signing Anibal Sanchez. They thought they were fighting an uphill battle to wrest him away from the Tigers -- and they lost.
• Ichiro told the Athletics he thinks that Hiroyuki Nakajima will hit in the big leagues. After watching this video, I think the biggest question will be whether Nakajima's throwing arm is strong enough to play shortstop in the majors. Mike Bordick didn't have a strong arm and made it work, and the same could be said for Omar Vizquel in the latter half of his career.
Oakland's investment in Nakajima, $6.5 million over two years, is modest enough to give the Athletics some flexibility in evaluating and placing him. If Nakajima -- a Gold Glove shortstop in Japan -- plays the position well enough, the Athletics will have good value. If not, he can be shifted into more of a utility role and Oakland can seek an alternative in midseason.
Nakajima definitely has a strong presence, and a sense of humor, as Susan Slusser writes. This was an Athletics' ripple versus the Angels' big splash, writes Ron Kroichick.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Phil Mickelson says he won't be part of the Padres' ownership group.
2. Adam Wainwright is going into his contract year.
3. Pete Rose Jr. was picked to manage.
4. The Milwaukee Brewers made some minor changes.
5. Washington's roster is good, but not complete, writes Adam Kilgore.
6. Michael Young and John Lannan were introduced, and Ruben Amaro talked about the outfield situation.
7. Peter Schmuck wonders: Are other teams leaving the Baltimore Orioles behind?
8. Joba Chamberlain called Kevin Youkilis to bury the hatchet, writes Mark Feinsand.
9. The Braves are still looking for a left fielder, writes David O'Brien. From his piece:
After all going into the season with what they have now does seem a bit more feasible and less risky than it would've if they had stated that intention a few weeks ago, after signing center fielder B.J. Upton. More feasible because they later since re-signed outfielder Reed Johnson, and less risky because Juan Francisco has continued to make what the Braves believe to be significant strides during winter ball in the Dominican Republic, where he's slimmed down some and kept working on his swing.
From what I gather, the Braves would be fairly comfortable going into the season with Martin Prado splitting time with Reed Johnson in left field and splitting time with Francisco at third base, and saving the extra funds for a big in-season trade or two as needs arise.
In that scenario, Prado would play every day but at a couple of positions once again -- he has proved that playing multiple positions doesn't affect his offense the way it does some players -- and Johnson and Francisco would play mostly against pitchers they handle best, lefties for Johnson and righties for Francisco.
In that scenario, Prado or second-year shortstop Andrelton Simmons probably would bat leadoff.
10. The Tampa Bay Rays lead the majors in rebuilding value in pitchers, and they view Roberto Hernandez -- the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- as an interesting gamble. It has always been about command for Carmona, who was absolutely dominant in 2007.
11. Kevin Towers hopes that Arizona Diamondbacks fans understand the moves he has made.
Rumors.
Ethier available?
11:50
AM ETAndre Ethier | Dodgers Recommend0Comments2EmailThere are conflicting reports out there this week on the Los Angeles Dodgers' plans for right fielder Andre Ethier, who was mentioned in trade rumors earlier this offseason.
Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that the club is shopping Ethier while Ken Rosenthal writes that the Dodgers are not shopping him, but adds that GM Ned Colletti would likely be open to moving him.
Rosenthal also notes that two American League clubs have expressed interest in Ethier, but that no offers have been made.
Ethier could be a nice fit in Baltimore or Tampa, but his $85 million extension signed during the 2012 season kicks in this spring and certainly eliminates the Rays and probably the Orioles, too.
The Red Sox, who were in on Josh Hamilton and could be just as interested in Nick Swisher, could also be a potential landing spot for Ethier, as could the Texas Rangers. The Phillies and Mariners could use a bat, though for the Phillies they may not have the available payroll to make such a move.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers
Is Nolasco worth Trumbo?
10:38
AM ETMark Trumbo | Angels Recommend0Comments9EmailWhile multiple reports have stated the Los Angeles Angels do not intend on trading Mark Trumbo, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark tweets Tuesday that the Miami Marlins have interest in the slugger and are trying to pry him away from LA in trade talks that potentially include right-hander Rocky Nolasco.
The Angels may prefer to move centerfielder Peter Bourjos, but Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald cites a source saying the Marlins have no interest in Bourjos and want a better bat in return.
Nolasco may or may not be a great fit for the Angels simply because he may not be better than what he would be replacing. After Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hanson, the Angels can go with Joe Blanton and either Garrett Richards or Jerome Williams, very capable No. 5 starters, and Richards has a chance to be a lot more than that.
Nolasco, however, is an above-average starting pitcher, despite ERAs in the 4.5 range in each of the past three seasons. Fielding Independent Pitching suggests that the Marlins defense has hurt Nolasco dearly, to the tune of more than a half of a run per game since the start of the 2010 campaign.
Still, Nolasco will make $11.5 million in 2013 and then hit the free agent market. Trading four control years of Trumbo for that may be too steep. Stay tuned.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo, Ricky Nolasco
Top traded prospects
9:30
AM ETTraded Prospects Recommend0Comments1EmailTop prospects traded this offseason
1. Wil Myers, OF -- Tampa Bay Rays2. Travis d'Arnaud, C -- New York Mets 3. Trevor Bauer, RHP -- Cleveland Indians 4. Alex Meyer, RHP -- Minnesota Twins 5. Noah Syndergaard, RHP -- New York Mets 6. Jake Marisnick, OF -- Miami Marlins 7. Justin Nicolino, LHP -- Miami Marlins 8. Jake Odorizzi, RHP -- Tampa Bay Rays 9. Mike Montgomery, LHP -- Tampa Bay Rays 10. Trevor May, RHP -- Minnesota TwinsWithin a handful a trades this offseason there have been several high-level prospects changing organizations. Moves like these can alter the direction of a club's rebuilding phase and/or change the dynamic levels of talent in their farm system.
Some will not remain prospects for long, likely including Bauer, d'Arnaud and Myers, and this time next year most of the above 10 will have at least some experience in the majors.
May is also likely to see the big leagues in 2013 and a healthy Montgomery could see Tampa late in the season.
The Blue Jays have traded four of their top 10 prospects -- Marisnick, Nicolino, Syndergaard and d'Arnaud -- to acquire proven veterans Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
At least five eyeing Howell
8:40
AM ETJ.P. Howell | Rays Recommend0Comments0EmailThe market nearly has run dry on left-handed relievers this offseason -- check out the few left -- but the likes of J.P. Howell remains and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that five clubs have shown interest.
The five are the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners and Nationals, and there may be others that have gone unreported to date.
The Mariners' interest is a bit peculiar since they have three southpaws -- Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush -- all due back in 2013 after quality 2012 campaigns.
The Nationals lost Sean Burnett to the Angels earlier this month, and have few in-house options, if any. Ladson mentions Bill Bray as one possibility.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Sean Burnett, Bill Bray, J.P. Howell
Bourn's market shrinks
8:02
AM ETMichael Bourn | Braves Recommend0Comments24EmailIt's one week until Christmas, and Michael Bourn remains the odd man out in the free agent outfield sweepstakes. Agent Scott Boras is often at his best when the market appears to be eroding, and he faces another challenge with Bourn, who was believed to be in line for a deal in the five-year, $75 million range at the start of the offseason.
With Josh Hamilton officially headed to the Los Angeles Angels, the Texas Rangers remain a viable option, given that there is some extra cash available and the need for a lefty bat in a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported Sunday that some baseball people believe the Yankees are quietly interested and "will pounce if the price comes down." The Yankees could use a leadoff hitter, but have been reluctant to pull the trigger on a major deal as they aim to remain on pace to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $189 million for 2014 -- which means few, if any, multi-year deals for free agents.
Furthermore, Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com reports Tuesday that the Yankees do not currently have interest in Bourn, for various reasons. Among those reasons, Matthews lists, include the club's left-handed heavy outfield of Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki.
Another option for Bourn exists in Seattle, where MLB.com's Greg Johns reported at the winter meetings that the Mariners were very interested. The Mariners were linked previously to Hamilton, and could shift more of their attention to Bourn.
Maybe Boras gets Bourn a one-year deal somewhere, as he did with Stephen Drew, which places the Gold Glove defender back into free agency next winter.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Michael Bourn, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees
Jackson could be next
7:51
AM ETEdwin Jackson | Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailWith the top two free agent starters off the board in Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, fellow right-hander Edwin Jackson could see his market develop quickly.
It also helps that Ryan Dempster, a similarly-valued arm, was signed to a two-year deal Thursday by the Boston Red Sox, potentially setting the market for Jackson at two or three years and $12-14 million per season.
Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com tweeted Thursday night that the San Diego Padres are "strongly pursuing" Jackson, and the veteran also could be a fit for the Orioles, Mariners, Indians and Angels.
Tuesday night, however, Jim Bowden tweeted that the Padres are out on Jackson, after refusing to offer more than three years. Bowden adds that the Cubs and Rangers are still in the hunt.
The Blue Jays had been mentioned have possible suitors, but are likely out of the picture since they complete the deal for R.A. Dickey.
Jackson would appear to be a possible fit for the Brewers, who were in on Dempster, but GM Doug Melvin told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that the club has no plans to chase another starting pitcher.
There has been some chatter this week that the Angels might be willing to move Mark Trumbo or Peter Bourjos for a starting pitcher -- though it's just speculation at this point -- and Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins is one name bandied about as a possibility. Los Angeles could also have eyes for Jackson, or Kyle Lohse, the top two free agent starting pitchers remaining.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers
December 18, 2012Update on Rangers' search
4:33
PM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments16EmailWhen the offseason started, the Texas Rangers were expected to be hot on the trail of a frontline starting pitcher or two, while also considering offensive alternatives to Josh Hamilton, who has signed with the rival Angels.
Right-hander Zack Greinke was the prize of the pitching market, and he's inked a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. James Shields was a backup plan, but he's now been traded to Kansas City. Then there's Justin Uptown, who may have been the club's best alternative to Hamilton, but it appears less likely he'll be traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks. So... now what?
The Rangers could hone in on trading for the Mets' R.A. Dickey or even try for the Phillies' Cliff Lee. Lee may or may not be truly available -- earlier this offseason he was linked to a trade with Arizona that involved Upton, an idea that was quickly shot down by the Diamondbacks -- but trading Lee could open up the kind of payroll the Phillies could use to make a play for free agent centerfielder Michael Bourn.
Nick Swisher is perhaps the best hitter still left on the open market, and he could handle either first base or a corner outfield spot for Texas, and he'll cost a lot less than Hamilton would have.
Catcher A.J. Pierzynski makes some sense, too, and the club was scheduled to meet with the veteran Tuesday, reports Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
Adam LaRoche, a first baseman, is another possibility, especially since his lefty bat could help replace Hamilton's, but it seems he prefers a return to the Nationals. If the Rangers offered three years guaranteed, however, they may be able to swoop in and steal him. The Orioles are thought to be considering offering the three years to LaRoche.
Texas does have needs in the outfield, however, which could make Bourn ideal, even if they were also to sign Swisher to play a corner outfield spot.
Regardless, the Rangers options in the wake of losing Hamilton and losing out on Greinke aren't just dwindling, they're disappearing.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:A.J. Pierzynski, Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, R.A. Dickey, James Shields, Texas Rangers, Michael Bourn
December 18, 2012Brewers' search for relievers
2:56
PM ETMilwaukee Brewers Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Milwaukee Brewers are searching for bullpen help and GM Doug Melvin told Jim Bowden and Casey Stern on SiriusXM Radio Tuesday that the club has expressed interest in a handful of free agents that fit the bill.
Melvin named four arms: Left-hander Mike Gonzalez and right-handers Jon Rauch, Kyle Farnsworth and Jason Frasor. All have experience closing, at least to some extent.
The top free agent reliever left on the market is Rafael Soriano, but the Brewers appear to be looking for seventh and eighth inning help to lead to closer John Axford, which likely means they have no interest in trading for Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan.
The market for free agent setup men hasn't necessarily been set, as the likes of Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League were signed as closers. Santiago Casilla's 3-year, $15 million extension with the Giants could serve as a standard for the aforementioned group the Brewers are eyeing, though all of them are older than Casilla and none performed as well in 2012.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Santiago Casilla, Jon Rauch, John Axford, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Frasor, Milwaukee Brewers
December 18, 2012Chances of Upton deal
2:35
PM ETJustin Upton | Diamondbacks Recommend0Comments2EmailWhen the Arizona Diamondbacks traded for shortstop Didi Gregorius from the Cincinnati Reds in a three-way deal last week, GM Kevin Towers came out and said it was highly unlikely Justin Upton would be traded now that the team had acquired what they needed without moving the right fielder. Not everyone believes that, however, including yours truly.
Reading between the lines, it certainly appears that one of the major factors in Upton being available is the team's disenchantment with him. Upton has three years left on his contract and will make $9.75 million this season before earning $14 million in 2014 and 2015 each. Coming off his second poor offensive showing in four seasons, the Diamondbacks may not be able to afford passing up a chance to get value for him now.
If Upton stays in Arizona and struggles again like he did in 2012, his trade value will certainly plummet, and having one less remaining on his contract doesn't help, either.
Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com wrote Tuesday that some executives believe Upton will be moved between now and the start of the season, despite Towers' comments last week. The Rangers could be the most motivated club to make a deal with Arizona after losing out on Josh Hamilton.
Other clubs that could have strong interest in Upton include the Orioles, Indians, Mariners, Red Sox, Phillies and Braves.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Justin Upton
December 18, 2012Update on LaRoche
1:56
PM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Washington Nationals still appear to be the favorites for free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, but the player is believed to want three years while the club hasn't changed its stance on their best offer of two years. Other clubs have been mentioned, but none are believed to be willing to give LaRoche the extra year of guaranteed money. Until now?
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes this week that the Orioles have interest and may be willing to give that third year.
Connolly says that another potential catch is the draft pick sacrifice necessary to sign LaRoche since the Nationals tendered the slugger a qualifying offer. The Orioles are slated to select No. 25 overall in June's draft and as a club still trying to build a foundation down on the farm, the pick is quite valuable.
The Orioles could use Chris Davis at first base and chase Lance Berkman or Travis Hafner to serve as the DH, which would save the club cash and the draft pick, but Connolly called the interest in LaRoche "legitimate."
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Chris Davis, Lance Berkman, Adam LaRoche
December 18, 2012What now for Berkman?
1:38
PM ETLance Berkman | Cardinals Recommend0Comments4EmailLance Berkman was the prime target of the Houston Astros in they search for a designated hitter, but the club inked Carlos Pena to a one-year deal Monday and stated that they planned on using him as the Dh as well as a little first base. Where does that leave Berkman?.
The veteran, if he chooses to return in 2013, could be a fit in Tampa Bay or even Baltimore, and the Mariners or Indians could also have interest.
The Astros could still see Berkman as a fit if they wanted to mix the two into the 1B/DH rotation.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
December 18, 2012Updated catching market
11:32
AM ETFree Agent Catchers Recommend0Comments18EmailMike NapoliA.J. PierzynskiRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderBrian SchneiderYorvit TorrealbaRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class is no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars.
Had the Phillies and Braves not picked up their options on Carlos Ruiz and Brian McCann, this batch of free agent backstops would be a little more enticing.
Napoli and Pierzynski clearly lead the crop, which just lost the third potential starter in Martin, who inked a two-year deal with the Pirates.
That means the Yankees will be in the market for a backstop, but whether they'll be willing to pay up for one of the top two -- who will command multi-year deals at around $10 million per -- or would look to make a trade remains to be seen just yet.
Among catcher who could be available via trade include John Buck and J.P. Arencibia, both of the Blue Jays. Either could be expendable thanks to the presence of top prospect Travis d'Arnaud, but Toronto might want to wait until d'Arnaud gets closer to ready after his 2012 was cut short with a knee injury, which could mean neither Buck or Arencibia will be available until later in the 2013 season.
Another readily available catcher is Geovany Soto, the former Cub and 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, who was non-tendered by the Rangers as of Dec. 1.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals or even minor league contracts.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Geovany Soto, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Russell Martin, Mike Napoli, A.J. Pierzynski, J.P. Arencibia
December 18, 2012Last of the hitters
9:18
AM ETTop Free Agent Bats Recommend0Comments22EmailTop Free Agent HittersMichael Bourn, OF Nick Swisher, OF Adam LaRoche, 1BCody Ross, OF Lance Berkman, 1B/DHSeveral names are already off the market, including top prize Josh Hamilton, but Bourn, Swisher and LaRoche all remain free agents likely to land multi-year deals.
Bourn is the lone center field option left, but his market has dried up over the past few weeks, as several teams in need of a centerfielder have already found other answers via signings and trades. At this stage, it's hard to see how Bourn could wind up with a deal he expected to land when the offseason began.
On the trade front, Justin Upton is the top target among hitters with Shin-Soo Choo having been swapped. And if LaRoche returns to Washington, that would likely make Michael Morse a trade candidate. The Orioles and Rangers could also see LaRoche as a fit.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, Cody Ross, Nick Swisher, Justin Upton, Adam LaRoche
December 18, 2012Who's on first in Baltimore?
8:13
AM ETBaltimore Orioles Recommend0Comments9EmailIf the Baltimore Orioles fail to land a first baseman, manager Buck Showalter is comfortable giving the job to Chris Davis with Wilson Betemit as the backup, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com.
In the meantime, general manager Dan Duquette continues to search for another bat either at first base or at DH. But the free agent market at first base is very thin beyond Adam LaRoche, who wants to stay with the Nationals but has yet to sign a deal.
Kubatko says there has been no indication the club would consider shifting Nick Markakis or Nolan Reimold at first base to provide an outfield spot for Davis.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
December 18, 2012Options for offense
7:45
AM ETClubs seeking bats Recommend0Comments2EmailA number of clubs that have been searching for hitters lost an option Thursday when Josh Hamilton signed with the Los Angeles Angels. The Phillies, Mariners and Red Sox are the top of that list. Who's left for these clubs to chase?
The top free agent is Nick Swisher, who is being pursued by the Cleveland Indians, too, with first baseman Adam LaRoche also still available. Lance Berkman, if he decides to return in 2013, could be an option for AL clubs looking for a DH, and Stephen Drew an offense-first shortstop still being considered by the Athletics.
Catcher A.J. Pierzynski and outfielders, Delmon Young Cody Ross and Grady Sizemore remain available. Sizemore is a major injury risk and can't be counted on to play regularly, at least not right out of the gate.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Halos will make Kendrys Morales or Mark Trumbo available after adding Hamilton to the mix, but both would draw some interest from teams looking for a bat.
Both Swisher and LaRoche will cost the signing team a draft, as will centerfielder Michael Bourn, who lacks power but gets on base, steals bases and plays great defense.
If LaRoche re-ups with Washington, Michael Morse could hit the trade market, and the likes of Brennan Boesch could also be traded this winter.
With the lack of big-time options, perhaps the Yankees start shopping Curtis Granderson aggressively, especially after the Indians set a nice market for players in their contract years when they traded Shin-Soo Choo earlier this week.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden has more on the Angels' surplus:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Could the Angels trade extra bats for pitching
"The New York Mets have to be thrilled about Hamilton signing with the Angels. They've been shopping Dickey all winter, and the Texas Rangers have been the main suitor. Now, the Rangers might feel more desperate to get Dickey after losing Hamilton, which gives the Mets more leverage. What also helps the Mets is that the Angels' surplus of oufielders might put them in the mix for Dickey, as the Mets need outfield help desperately. A package of speedy center fielder Peter Bourjos and right-hander Garrett Richards might be enough to get the Dickey conversation started, and the Halos could go so far as to throw in catcher Hank Conger(another Mets need) to get the deal done. The Angels have a weak farm system and are clearly in win-now mode, so they might as well try to put themselves over the top. Also, they lost both Ervin Santana and Dan Haren this winter, so they need some pitching depth. Dickey would make them the clear favorite in the AL West. The Angels being in the mix for Dickey could help the Mets in getting the Rangers to increase their offer, going so far as to part with lefty Martin Perez and Mike Olt for the knuckleballer."
11:50
AM ETAndre Ethier | Dodgers Recommend0Comments2EmailThere are conflicting reports out there this week on the Los Angeles Dodgers' plans for right fielder Andre Ethier, who was mentioned in trade rumors earlier this offseason.
Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that the club is shopping Ethier while Ken Rosenthal writes that the Dodgers are not shopping him, but adds that GM Ned Colletti would likely be open to moving him.
Rosenthal also notes that two American League clubs have expressed interest in Ethier, but that no offers have been made.
Ethier could be a nice fit in Baltimore or Tampa, but his $85 million extension signed during the 2012 season kicks in this spring and certainly eliminates the Rays and probably the Orioles, too.
The Red Sox, who were in on Josh Hamilton and could be just as interested in Nick Swisher, could also be a potential landing spot for Ethier, as could the Texas Rangers. The Phillies and Mariners could use a bat, though for the Phillies they may not have the available payroll to make such a move.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers
Is Nolasco worth Trumbo?
10:38
AM ETMark Trumbo | Angels Recommend0Comments9EmailWhile multiple reports have stated the Los Angeles Angels do not intend on trading Mark Trumbo, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark tweets Tuesday that the Miami Marlins have interest in the slugger and are trying to pry him away from LA in trade talks that potentially include right-hander Rocky Nolasco.
The Angels may prefer to move centerfielder Peter Bourjos, but Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald cites a source saying the Marlins have no interest in Bourjos and want a better bat in return.
Nolasco may or may not be a great fit for the Angels simply because he may not be better than what he would be replacing. After Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Tommy Hanson, the Angels can go with Joe Blanton and either Garrett Richards or Jerome Williams, very capable No. 5 starters, and Richards has a chance to be a lot more than that.
Nolasco, however, is an above-average starting pitcher, despite ERAs in the 4.5 range in each of the past three seasons. Fielding Independent Pitching suggests that the Marlins defense has hurt Nolasco dearly, to the tune of more than a half of a run per game since the start of the 2010 campaign.
Still, Nolasco will make $11.5 million in 2013 and then hit the free agent market. Trading four control years of Trumbo for that may be too steep. Stay tuned.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo, Ricky Nolasco
Top traded prospects
9:30
AM ETTraded Prospects Recommend0Comments1EmailTop prospects traded this offseason
1. Wil Myers, OF -- Tampa Bay Rays2. Travis d'Arnaud, C -- New York Mets 3. Trevor Bauer, RHP -- Cleveland Indians 4. Alex Meyer, RHP -- Minnesota Twins 5. Noah Syndergaard, RHP -- New York Mets 6. Jake Marisnick, OF -- Miami Marlins 7. Justin Nicolino, LHP -- Miami Marlins 8. Jake Odorizzi, RHP -- Tampa Bay Rays 9. Mike Montgomery, LHP -- Tampa Bay Rays 10. Trevor May, RHP -- Minnesota TwinsWithin a handful a trades this offseason there have been several high-level prospects changing organizations. Moves like these can alter the direction of a club's rebuilding phase and/or change the dynamic levels of talent in their farm system.
Some will not remain prospects for long, likely including Bauer, d'Arnaud and Myers, and this time next year most of the above 10 will have at least some experience in the majors.
May is also likely to see the big leagues in 2013 and a healthy Montgomery could see Tampa late in the season.
The Blue Jays have traded four of their top 10 prospects -- Marisnick, Nicolino, Syndergaard and d'Arnaud -- to acquire proven veterans Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays
At least five eyeing Howell
8:40
AM ETJ.P. Howell | Rays Recommend0Comments0EmailThe market nearly has run dry on left-handed relievers this offseason -- check out the few left -- but the likes of J.P. Howell remains and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that five clubs have shown interest.
The five are the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners and Nationals, and there may be others that have gone unreported to date.
The Mariners' interest is a bit peculiar since they have three southpaws -- Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush -- all due back in 2013 after quality 2012 campaigns.
The Nationals lost Sean Burnett to the Angels earlier this month, and have few in-house options, if any. Ladson mentions Bill Bray as one possibility.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Sean Burnett, Bill Bray, J.P. Howell
Bourn's market shrinks
8:02
AM ETMichael Bourn | Braves Recommend0Comments24EmailIt's one week until Christmas, and Michael Bourn remains the odd man out in the free agent outfield sweepstakes. Agent Scott Boras is often at his best when the market appears to be eroding, and he faces another challenge with Bourn, who was believed to be in line for a deal in the five-year, $75 million range at the start of the offseason.
With Josh Hamilton officially headed to the Los Angeles Angels, the Texas Rangers remain a viable option, given that there is some extra cash available and the need for a lefty bat in a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported Sunday that some baseball people believe the Yankees are quietly interested and "will pounce if the price comes down." The Yankees could use a leadoff hitter, but have been reluctant to pull the trigger on a major deal as they aim to remain on pace to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $189 million for 2014 -- which means few, if any, multi-year deals for free agents.
Furthermore, Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com reports Tuesday that the Yankees do not currently have interest in Bourn, for various reasons. Among those reasons, Matthews lists, include the club's left-handed heavy outfield of Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki.
Another option for Bourn exists in Seattle, where MLB.com's Greg Johns reported at the winter meetings that the Mariners were very interested. The Mariners were linked previously to Hamilton, and could shift more of their attention to Bourn.
Maybe Boras gets Bourn a one-year deal somewhere, as he did with Stephen Drew, which places the Gold Glove defender back into free agency next winter.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Michael Bourn, Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees
Jackson could be next
7:51
AM ETEdwin Jackson | Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailWith the top two free agent starters off the board in Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, fellow right-hander Edwin Jackson could see his market develop quickly.
It also helps that Ryan Dempster, a similarly-valued arm, was signed to a two-year deal Thursday by the Boston Red Sox, potentially setting the market for Jackson at two or three years and $12-14 million per season.
Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com tweeted Thursday night that the San Diego Padres are "strongly pursuing" Jackson, and the veteran also could be a fit for the Orioles, Mariners, Indians and Angels.
Tuesday night, however, Jim Bowden tweeted that the Padres are out on Jackson, after refusing to offer more than three years. Bowden adds that the Cubs and Rangers are still in the hunt.
The Blue Jays had been mentioned have possible suitors, but are likely out of the picture since they complete the deal for R.A. Dickey.
Jackson would appear to be a possible fit for the Brewers, who were in on Dempster, but GM Doug Melvin told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that the club has no plans to chase another starting pitcher.
There has been some chatter this week that the Angels might be willing to move Mark Trumbo or Peter Bourjos for a starting pitcher -- though it's just speculation at this point -- and Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins is one name bandied about as a possibility. Los Angeles could also have eyes for Jackson, or Kyle Lohse, the top two free agent starting pitchers remaining.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers
December 18, 2012Update on Rangers' search
4:33
PM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments16EmailWhen the offseason started, the Texas Rangers were expected to be hot on the trail of a frontline starting pitcher or two, while also considering offensive alternatives to Josh Hamilton, who has signed with the rival Angels.
Right-hander Zack Greinke was the prize of the pitching market, and he's inked a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. James Shields was a backup plan, but he's now been traded to Kansas City. Then there's Justin Uptown, who may have been the club's best alternative to Hamilton, but it appears less likely he'll be traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks. So... now what?
The Rangers could hone in on trading for the Mets' R.A. Dickey or even try for the Phillies' Cliff Lee. Lee may or may not be truly available -- earlier this offseason he was linked to a trade with Arizona that involved Upton, an idea that was quickly shot down by the Diamondbacks -- but trading Lee could open up the kind of payroll the Phillies could use to make a play for free agent centerfielder Michael Bourn.
Nick Swisher is perhaps the best hitter still left on the open market, and he could handle either first base or a corner outfield spot for Texas, and he'll cost a lot less than Hamilton would have.
Catcher A.J. Pierzynski makes some sense, too, and the club was scheduled to meet with the veteran Tuesday, reports Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
Adam LaRoche, a first baseman, is another possibility, especially since his lefty bat could help replace Hamilton's, but it seems he prefers a return to the Nationals. If the Rangers offered three years guaranteed, however, they may be able to swoop in and steal him. The Orioles are thought to be considering offering the three years to LaRoche.
Texas does have needs in the outfield, however, which could make Bourn ideal, even if they were also to sign Swisher to play a corner outfield spot.
Regardless, the Rangers options in the wake of losing Hamilton and losing out on Greinke aren't just dwindling, they're disappearing.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:A.J. Pierzynski, Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, R.A. Dickey, James Shields, Texas Rangers, Michael Bourn
December 18, 2012Brewers' search for relievers
2:56
PM ETMilwaukee Brewers Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Milwaukee Brewers are searching for bullpen help and GM Doug Melvin told Jim Bowden and Casey Stern on SiriusXM Radio Tuesday that the club has expressed interest in a handful of free agents that fit the bill.
Melvin named four arms: Left-hander Mike Gonzalez and right-handers Jon Rauch, Kyle Farnsworth and Jason Frasor. All have experience closing, at least to some extent.
The top free agent reliever left on the market is Rafael Soriano, but the Brewers appear to be looking for seventh and eighth inning help to lead to closer John Axford, which likely means they have no interest in trading for Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan.
The market for free agent setup men hasn't necessarily been set, as the likes of Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League were signed as closers. Santiago Casilla's 3-year, $15 million extension with the Giants could serve as a standard for the aforementioned group the Brewers are eyeing, though all of them are older than Casilla and none performed as well in 2012.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Santiago Casilla, Jon Rauch, John Axford, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Frasor, Milwaukee Brewers
December 18, 2012Chances of Upton deal
2:35
PM ETJustin Upton | Diamondbacks Recommend0Comments2EmailWhen the Arizona Diamondbacks traded for shortstop Didi Gregorius from the Cincinnati Reds in a three-way deal last week, GM Kevin Towers came out and said it was highly unlikely Justin Upton would be traded now that the team had acquired what they needed without moving the right fielder. Not everyone believes that, however, including yours truly.
Reading between the lines, it certainly appears that one of the major factors in Upton being available is the team's disenchantment with him. Upton has three years left on his contract and will make $9.75 million this season before earning $14 million in 2014 and 2015 each. Coming off his second poor offensive showing in four seasons, the Diamondbacks may not be able to afford passing up a chance to get value for him now.
If Upton stays in Arizona and struggles again like he did in 2012, his trade value will certainly plummet, and having one less remaining on his contract doesn't help, either.
Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com wrote Tuesday that some executives believe Upton will be moved between now and the start of the season, despite Towers' comments last week. The Rangers could be the most motivated club to make a deal with Arizona after losing out on Josh Hamilton.
Other clubs that could have strong interest in Upton include the Orioles, Indians, Mariners, Red Sox, Phillies and Braves.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Justin Upton
December 18, 2012Update on LaRoche
1:56
PM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Washington Nationals still appear to be the favorites for free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, but the player is believed to want three years while the club hasn't changed its stance on their best offer of two years. Other clubs have been mentioned, but none are believed to be willing to give LaRoche the extra year of guaranteed money. Until now?
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes this week that the Orioles have interest and may be willing to give that third year.
Connolly says that another potential catch is the draft pick sacrifice necessary to sign LaRoche since the Nationals tendered the slugger a qualifying offer. The Orioles are slated to select No. 25 overall in June's draft and as a club still trying to build a foundation down on the farm, the pick is quite valuable.
The Orioles could use Chris Davis at first base and chase Lance Berkman or Travis Hafner to serve as the DH, which would save the club cash and the draft pick, but Connolly called the interest in LaRoche "legitimate."
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Chris Davis, Lance Berkman, Adam LaRoche
December 18, 2012What now for Berkman?
1:38
PM ETLance Berkman | Cardinals Recommend0Comments4EmailLance Berkman was the prime target of the Houston Astros in they search for a designated hitter, but the club inked Carlos Pena to a one-year deal Monday and stated that they planned on using him as the Dh as well as a little first base. Where does that leave Berkman?.
The veteran, if he chooses to return in 2013, could be a fit in Tampa Bay or even Baltimore, and the Mariners or Indians could also have interest.
The Astros could still see Berkman as a fit if they wanted to mix the two into the 1B/DH rotation.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
December 18, 2012Updated catching market
11:32
AM ETFree Agent Catchers Recommend0Comments18EmailMike NapoliA.J. PierzynskiRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderBrian SchneiderYorvit TorrealbaRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class is no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars.
Had the Phillies and Braves not picked up their options on Carlos Ruiz and Brian McCann, this batch of free agent backstops would be a little more enticing.
Napoli and Pierzynski clearly lead the crop, which just lost the third potential starter in Martin, who inked a two-year deal with the Pirates.
That means the Yankees will be in the market for a backstop, but whether they'll be willing to pay up for one of the top two -- who will command multi-year deals at around $10 million per -- or would look to make a trade remains to be seen just yet.
Among catcher who could be available via trade include John Buck and J.P. Arencibia, both of the Blue Jays. Either could be expendable thanks to the presence of top prospect Travis d'Arnaud, but Toronto might want to wait until d'Arnaud gets closer to ready after his 2012 was cut short with a knee injury, which could mean neither Buck or Arencibia will be available until later in the 2013 season.
Another readily available catcher is Geovany Soto, the former Cub and 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, who was non-tendered by the Rangers as of Dec. 1.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals or even minor league contracts.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Geovany Soto, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Russell Martin, Mike Napoli, A.J. Pierzynski, J.P. Arencibia
December 18, 2012Last of the hitters
9:18
AM ETTop Free Agent Bats Recommend0Comments22EmailTop Free Agent HittersMichael Bourn, OF Nick Swisher, OF Adam LaRoche, 1BCody Ross, OF Lance Berkman, 1B/DHSeveral names are already off the market, including top prize Josh Hamilton, but Bourn, Swisher and LaRoche all remain free agents likely to land multi-year deals.
Bourn is the lone center field option left, but his market has dried up over the past few weeks, as several teams in need of a centerfielder have already found other answers via signings and trades. At this stage, it's hard to see how Bourn could wind up with a deal he expected to land when the offseason began.
On the trade front, Justin Upton is the top target among hitters with Shin-Soo Choo having been swapped. And if LaRoche returns to Washington, that would likely make Michael Morse a trade candidate. The Orioles and Rangers could also see LaRoche as a fit.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, Cody Ross, Nick Swisher, Justin Upton, Adam LaRoche
December 18, 2012Who's on first in Baltimore?
8:13
AM ETBaltimore Orioles Recommend0Comments9EmailIf the Baltimore Orioles fail to land a first baseman, manager Buck Showalter is comfortable giving the job to Chris Davis with Wilson Betemit as the backup, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com.
In the meantime, general manager Dan Duquette continues to search for another bat either at first base or at DH. But the free agent market at first base is very thin beyond Adam LaRoche, who wants to stay with the Nationals but has yet to sign a deal.
Kubatko says there has been no indication the club would consider shifting Nick Markakis or Nolan Reimold at first base to provide an outfield spot for Davis.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
December 18, 2012Options for offense
7:45
AM ETClubs seeking bats Recommend0Comments2EmailA number of clubs that have been searching for hitters lost an option Thursday when Josh Hamilton signed with the Los Angeles Angels. The Phillies, Mariners and Red Sox are the top of that list. Who's left for these clubs to chase?
The top free agent is Nick Swisher, who is being pursued by the Cleveland Indians, too, with first baseman Adam LaRoche also still available. Lance Berkman, if he decides to return in 2013, could be an option for AL clubs looking for a DH, and Stephen Drew an offense-first shortstop still being considered by the Athletics.
Catcher A.J. Pierzynski and outfielders, Delmon Young Cody Ross and Grady Sizemore remain available. Sizemore is a major injury risk and can't be counted on to play regularly, at least not right out of the gate.
It remains to be seen whether or not the Halos will make Kendrys Morales or Mark Trumbo available after adding Hamilton to the mix, but both would draw some interest from teams looking for a bat.
Both Swisher and LaRoche will cost the signing team a draft, as will centerfielder Michael Bourn, who lacks power but gets on base, steals bases and plays great defense.
If LaRoche re-ups with Washington, Michael Morse could hit the trade market, and the likes of Brennan Boesch could also be traded this winter.
With the lack of big-time options, perhaps the Yankees start shopping Curtis Granderson aggressively, especially after the Indians set a nice market for players in their contract years when they traded Shin-Soo Choo earlier this week.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden has more on the Angels' surplus:
- Jason A. Churchill
Jim Bowden | The GM's Office
Could the Angels trade extra bats for pitching
"The New York Mets have to be thrilled about Hamilton signing with the Angels. They've been shopping Dickey all winter, and the Texas Rangers have been the main suitor. Now, the Rangers might feel more desperate to get Dickey after losing Hamilton, which gives the Mets more leverage. What also helps the Mets is that the Angels' surplus of oufielders might put them in the mix for Dickey, as the Mets need outfield help desperately. A package of speedy center fielder Peter Bourjos and right-hander Garrett Richards might be enough to get the Dickey conversation started, and the Halos could go so far as to throw in catcher Hank Conger(another Mets need) to get the deal done. The Angels have a weak farm system and are clearly in win-now mode, so they might as well try to put themselves over the top. Also, they lost both Ervin Santana and Dan Haren this winter, so they need some pitching depth. Dickey would make them the clear favorite in the AL West. The Angels being in the mix for Dickey could help the Mets in getting the Rangers to increase their offer, going so far as to part with lefty Martin Perez and Mike Olt for the knuckleballer."
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Angels trade Kendrys Morales to Seattle for Jason Vargas...
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Funny how things come back full circle...he ended up missing the 2011 season after celebrating on a walk off vs the M's.
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Someone give us a third baseman/catcher
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Wow, $1000 is steep.Have any of you guys got an on-field batting practice pass? My brother and I are gonna go down to Tampa to see the Yankees' Spring Training and I was thinking of buying their Inside Experience program, which is $425, but I can upgrade it for $1000 and that includes an on-field BP pass. I was wondering if it's worth the extra $500 for the pass? Can we interact with the players or is it just watching them with the reporters/photographers? Any help is appreciated...
I don't think it's worth it. It's spring training, so I bunch of minor leaguers or guys hoping for a shot mixed in with the big league squad. I don't see the players to interact much for it to be worth 1k.
But, that's just my opinion. Never heard of it not knew they did on field passes
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pretty bummed out we traded Kendrys... That was my dude right there. Watch him beast when he plays us like what Vlad and Napoli did when they went to the Rangers 
He was just getting healthy too. Younger than both Pujols and Hamilton and is a switch-hitter.
He was just getting healthy too. Younger than both Pujols and Hamilton and is a switch-hitter.
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Shocking the rangers would have signed AJ
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Edwin Jackson fits the Cubs' strategy.
Padres are a sleeper team.
Kinsler should play first base.
Given the current price of starting pitching in free agency, the annual salary of $11 million (excluding the $8 million he'll receive as a signing bonus) that Edwin Jackson got from the Chicago Cubs is reasonable, especially because he probably carries relatively little risk of either a significant dip in performance or of missing a significant chunk of time.
Jackson, 29, threw 183 innings in 2008 and has exceeded that total in each of the four seasons since, and has made 31 or more starts in all six seasons since he became a major league starter. He just posted the highest strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate of his career, numbers he could pretty easily repeat, given his stuff and previous performance. He probably will never turn into the No. 1 or 2 starter that his raw stuff would indicate, but a pitcher who is worth roughly three wins above replacement every season with only minimal deviations from that number is still a valuable asset.
Signing a top free agent to a long-term deal isn't usually a great strategy for a 90-plus loss team, but there's merit to the Cubs' move here. Jackson's presence on the roster gives them more flexibility to potentially trade a starter, if not two, during the 2013 season.
Matt Garza likely would be an ex-Cub by now if he'd finished the 2012 season healthy, and he could move as early as spring training if he looks like his old self. If Scott Baker or Scott Feldman throw well in the first half of 2013, they would be ideal trade bait before the July 31 deadline, which is the best argument for signing them in the first place -- but now doing so won't leave the team with a skeleton crew rotation behind Jeff Samardzija in the final two months of the season.
Jackson also gives the Cubs a third starter for their 2014 rotation after Samardzija and Travis Wood, particularly critical because the Cubs didn't have a solid starting-pitching prospect above short-season ball this year; even an optimistic forecast on Pierce Johnson, the top college pitcher the Cubs drafted in 2012, wouldn't have him in the majors until mid-2014.
With next winter's free-agent market looking as if it'll be light on starting pitchers, signing Jackson now, even if it's for a year longer than I'd want to go on a pitcher of his caliber, makes some sense as insurance against entering the 2014 season with filler in three rotation spots. And if you must go four years, Jackson's history of durability and consistent performance should make you less queasy about it than you'd be with Kyle Lohse or Anibal Sanchez.
I'm more or less dismissing the possibility that Jackson improves from what he has been the past four years, but I suppose it's not impossible. He does have the big fastball and can hold that velocity deep into games, often hitting 97 mph to 98 mph on a few pitches toward the end of an outing, but his command, especially up in the zone, has always left a little to be desired and made him prone to hard contact, including home runs.
He misses bats with his slider, but gets beaten on his fastball too often to be more than a mid-rotation guy who eats a lot of innings, and I've long held that teams buy into him because they see the velocity and figure he can be fixed. The Cubs' deal with him pays him like he'll be as good as he's been, but no better; if there is another level for Jackson, that's potential upside for the Cubs. I just don't expect it, given how long he's been the pitcher we know him to be.
The Cubs also picked up swingman Carlos Villanueva on a pretty cheap two-year deal, paying him $10 million total for a term that probably will see him working both in the rotation and out of the bullpen. He adds to the starting pitching depth, which could make trading Garza and one of Baker or Feldman easier this season, but with the rotation full at the moment, Villanueva probably will head for the bullpen, an area of weakness for the 2012 team that's looking better now with this deal and with the signing of Kyuji Fujikawa.
The Cubs' offseason as a whole hasn't done anything to interfere with the rebuilding program in place; no one's been blocked, and they haven't lost any draft picks or prospects. They're focusing on cheap, short-term deals with players who have a lot of potential to produce surplus value, and the one exception, Jackson, was the safest remaining bet on the starting pitching market. It's the best path for a team that has money but is restricted by the new CBA from putting it into amateur talent acquisition.
Jackson, 29, threw 183 innings in 2008 and has exceeded that total in each of the four seasons since, and has made 31 or more starts in all six seasons since he became a major league starter. He just posted the highest strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate of his career, numbers he could pretty easily repeat, given his stuff and previous performance. He probably will never turn into the No. 1 or 2 starter that his raw stuff would indicate, but a pitcher who is worth roughly three wins above replacement every season with only minimal deviations from that number is still a valuable asset.
Signing a top free agent to a long-term deal isn't usually a great strategy for a 90-plus loss team, but there's merit to the Cubs' move here. Jackson's presence on the roster gives them more flexibility to potentially trade a starter, if not two, during the 2013 season.
Matt Garza likely would be an ex-Cub by now if he'd finished the 2012 season healthy, and he could move as early as spring training if he looks like his old self. If Scott Baker or Scott Feldman throw well in the first half of 2013, they would be ideal trade bait before the July 31 deadline, which is the best argument for signing them in the first place -- but now doing so won't leave the team with a skeleton crew rotation behind Jeff Samardzija in the final two months of the season.
Jackson also gives the Cubs a third starter for their 2014 rotation after Samardzija and Travis Wood, particularly critical because the Cubs didn't have a solid starting-pitching prospect above short-season ball this year; even an optimistic forecast on Pierce Johnson, the top college pitcher the Cubs drafted in 2012, wouldn't have him in the majors until mid-2014.
With next winter's free-agent market looking as if it'll be light on starting pitchers, signing Jackson now, even if it's for a year longer than I'd want to go on a pitcher of his caliber, makes some sense as insurance against entering the 2014 season with filler in three rotation spots. And if you must go four years, Jackson's history of durability and consistent performance should make you less queasy about it than you'd be with Kyle Lohse or Anibal Sanchez.
I'm more or less dismissing the possibility that Jackson improves from what he has been the past four years, but I suppose it's not impossible. He does have the big fastball and can hold that velocity deep into games, often hitting 97 mph to 98 mph on a few pitches toward the end of an outing, but his command, especially up in the zone, has always left a little to be desired and made him prone to hard contact, including home runs.
He misses bats with his slider, but gets beaten on his fastball too often to be more than a mid-rotation guy who eats a lot of innings, and I've long held that teams buy into him because they see the velocity and figure he can be fixed. The Cubs' deal with him pays him like he'll be as good as he's been, but no better; if there is another level for Jackson, that's potential upside for the Cubs. I just don't expect it, given how long he's been the pitcher we know him to be.
The Cubs also picked up swingman Carlos Villanueva on a pretty cheap two-year deal, paying him $10 million total for a term that probably will see him working both in the rotation and out of the bullpen. He adds to the starting pitching depth, which could make trading Garza and one of Baker or Feldman easier this season, but with the rotation full at the moment, Villanueva probably will head for the bullpen, an area of weakness for the 2012 team that's looking better now with this deal and with the signing of Kyuji Fujikawa.
The Cubs' offseason as a whole hasn't done anything to interfere with the rebuilding program in place; no one's been blocked, and they haven't lost any draft picks or prospects. They're focusing on cheap, short-term deals with players who have a lot of potential to produce surplus value, and the one exception, Jackson, was the safest remaining bet on the starting pitching market. It's the best path for a team that has money but is restricted by the new CBA from putting it into amateur talent acquisition.
Padres are a sleeper team.
Last season, the San Diego Padres finished with 76 wins. The first half was difficult, but that's understandable, as it was dragged down by the presence of Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, Jeff Suppan and Kip Wells. The team also dealt with injuries to Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland, Andrew Cashner and Carlos Quentin. They also didn't get catcher Yasmani Grandal up until close to the All-Star break.
This season, they will once again be without Luebke, Wieland, Cashner and Grandal for the first two months or so due to injuries and suspension (Grandal), but in the second half the Padres proved they could be a good team, going 42-33 after the All-Star break, and they are shaping up as a sleeper team for 2013. They just need to make one more key move this winter.
Despite lacking in star power, the Pads actually have a pretty good offense. Overall, the team finished 13th in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) last season, and the lineup was anchored by Quentin -- when healthy -- and Chase Headley, who had a banner campaign, one that netted him a fifth-place finish in the National League Most Valuable Award race. Quentin though, was just as impressive. He totaled just 340 plate appearances, but among outfielders with 300 or more PA, his 146 wRC+ tied for sixth-best with Matt Kemp and Justin Ruggiano. For one year anyway, he proved to be the rare player whose power wasn't affected by Petco Park, as Quentin's .246 home ISO (isolated power) was actually higher than his .241 road ISO. It's not a large sample, but it was encouraging nonetheless.
Also encouraging is how the Padres platoon players -- Headley, Quentin and Cameron Maybin -- start day in and day out, but the other positions flip-flop as needed. Yonder Alonso doesn't platoon that much, but he has Jesus Guzman and the 157 wRC+ he has posted against lefties the past two seasons to caddy for him. In right field, Chris Denorfia and Will Venable make a good team. Over the past three seasons, Denorfia has posted a 142 wRC+ against lefties, while Venable clocks in with a 112 wRC+ against righties.
At second base, Logan Forsythe and Alexi Amarista also team up. In their first two major league seasons, Forsythe has posted a 146 wRC+ against lefties, while Amarista a 82 wRC+ against righties. That's not a great mark, but it bests Forsythe's and allows the team to play off the pair's strengths. Of course, prospect Jedd Gyorko may force his way onto the roster in the spring. If he locks down the second base job that would give Amarista the chance to slide over to shortstop, where he could form an effective platoon with Everth Cabrera. While Cabrera has hit righties equally as well as has Amarista, Amarista has hit lefties much more effectively (96 wRC+ for Amarista versus a 55 wRC+ for Cabrera).
In other words, the Padres offense has pieces that fit together, despite the lack of name-brand value. The pitching is similarly deep, but the quality could use a boost -- which is where the "one more move" comes in.
Last season, the team's relievers were pretty good, and they should remain so with the addition of Brad Boxberger for a full season and hopefully improved health from closer Huston Street. But the starting pitchers were dreadful. The rotation had to endure 22 starts with a collective 6.08 ERA from Ross Ohlendorf, Wells and Suppan, in addition to the growing pains of youngsters Casey Kelly and Andrew Werner. Even guys who were part of the plan, like Clayton Richard and his 4.62 FIP (fielding independent pitching), weren't much help. The only Padres' starting pitcher to top 1.0 WAR (wins above replacement) was Edinson Volquez. Altogether, the Padres' starting rotation posted a 121 FIP- that was second-worst in the majors. (Only the Minnesota Twins were worse.)
The team should be trying to avoid these rotation missteps. Back in November, I advocated for the team to sign Kyle Lohse, and in recent days the team was linked to Edwin Jackson, but neither of those players now appear to likely to sign in San Diego, as general manager Josh Byrnes has been reticent to go past three years on any contract for a free-agent pitcher.
As it stands now, the best starting rotation that the team could run out on Opening Day is Anthony Bass, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Casey Kelly and Eric Stults, with Robbie Erlin possibly forcing his way into the picture and Jason Marquis behind the "break in case of emergency" glass. By midseason, at least two of Cashner, Luebke and Wieland would hopefully push two of Richard, Stults and Volquez out of the picture, but if the Padres could find a way to force them out of the picture at the outset, that would put the team on firmer ground. It would also give the team the luxury of not rushing back their prized starters.
There are sure to be palatable options at San Diego's disposal. If the Texas Rangers sign Jackson, they may have a starter to trade. The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays still have more starters than available rotation spots, and pitchers like Rick Porcello and Gavin Floyd have been mentioned in trade rumors this winter as well. And those are just the players that we know about. As the winter continues to shake out, teams will see their depth change, and with San Diego's deep farm system -- which Keith Law ranked as the best in baseball a year ago -- the team will have the resources with which to complete a trade or two. Whether or not the Padres do could go a long way to determining whether or not they are a sleeper.
Last year, the Cardinals took home the second wild card with 88 wins. The Padres have some work to do on the pitching front to get to that number, but they have an underrated offense and just need to add some stability to their rotation. It might be a little hard to see at this juncture, but that's why we call them sleeper teams -- because most are discounting their chances. The NL West will once again be solid, but it does not have a spectacular team, no matter how much money the Dodgers spend this offseason. Manager Bud Black wrings the most out of his players, and if he is given another solid starter or two at the season's outset, San Diego may just find itself in the thick of things come September.
This season, they will once again be without Luebke, Wieland, Cashner and Grandal for the first two months or so due to injuries and suspension (Grandal), but in the second half the Padres proved they could be a good team, going 42-33 after the All-Star break, and they are shaping up as a sleeper team for 2013. They just need to make one more key move this winter.
Despite lacking in star power, the Pads actually have a pretty good offense. Overall, the team finished 13th in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) last season, and the lineup was anchored by Quentin -- when healthy -- and Chase Headley, who had a banner campaign, one that netted him a fifth-place finish in the National League Most Valuable Award race. Quentin though, was just as impressive. He totaled just 340 plate appearances, but among outfielders with 300 or more PA, his 146 wRC+ tied for sixth-best with Matt Kemp and Justin Ruggiano. For one year anyway, he proved to be the rare player whose power wasn't affected by Petco Park, as Quentin's .246 home ISO (isolated power) was actually higher than his .241 road ISO. It's not a large sample, but it was encouraging nonetheless.
Also encouraging is how the Padres platoon players -- Headley, Quentin and Cameron Maybin -- start day in and day out, but the other positions flip-flop as needed. Yonder Alonso doesn't platoon that much, but he has Jesus Guzman and the 157 wRC+ he has posted against lefties the past two seasons to caddy for him. In right field, Chris Denorfia and Will Venable make a good team. Over the past three seasons, Denorfia has posted a 142 wRC+ against lefties, while Venable clocks in with a 112 wRC+ against righties.
At second base, Logan Forsythe and Alexi Amarista also team up. In their first two major league seasons, Forsythe has posted a 146 wRC+ against lefties, while Amarista a 82 wRC+ against righties. That's not a great mark, but it bests Forsythe's and allows the team to play off the pair's strengths. Of course, prospect Jedd Gyorko may force his way onto the roster in the spring. If he locks down the second base job that would give Amarista the chance to slide over to shortstop, where he could form an effective platoon with Everth Cabrera. While Cabrera has hit righties equally as well as has Amarista, Amarista has hit lefties much more effectively (96 wRC+ for Amarista versus a 55 wRC+ for Cabrera).
In other words, the Padres offense has pieces that fit together, despite the lack of name-brand value. The pitching is similarly deep, but the quality could use a boost -- which is where the "one more move" comes in.
Last season, the team's relievers were pretty good, and they should remain so with the addition of Brad Boxberger for a full season and hopefully improved health from closer Huston Street. But the starting pitchers were dreadful. The rotation had to endure 22 starts with a collective 6.08 ERA from Ross Ohlendorf, Wells and Suppan, in addition to the growing pains of youngsters Casey Kelly and Andrew Werner. Even guys who were part of the plan, like Clayton Richard and his 4.62 FIP (fielding independent pitching), weren't much help. The only Padres' starting pitcher to top 1.0 WAR (wins above replacement) was Edinson Volquez. Altogether, the Padres' starting rotation posted a 121 FIP- that was second-worst in the majors. (Only the Minnesota Twins were worse.)
The team should be trying to avoid these rotation missteps. Back in November, I advocated for the team to sign Kyle Lohse, and in recent days the team was linked to Edwin Jackson, but neither of those players now appear to likely to sign in San Diego, as general manager Josh Byrnes has been reticent to go past three years on any contract for a free-agent pitcher.
As it stands now, the best starting rotation that the team could run out on Opening Day is Anthony Bass, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Casey Kelly and Eric Stults, with Robbie Erlin possibly forcing his way into the picture and Jason Marquis behind the "break in case of emergency" glass. By midseason, at least two of Cashner, Luebke and Wieland would hopefully push two of Richard, Stults and Volquez out of the picture, but if the Padres could find a way to force them out of the picture at the outset, that would put the team on firmer ground. It would also give the team the luxury of not rushing back their prized starters.
There are sure to be palatable options at San Diego's disposal. If the Texas Rangers sign Jackson, they may have a starter to trade. The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays still have more starters than available rotation spots, and pitchers like Rick Porcello and Gavin Floyd have been mentioned in trade rumors this winter as well. And those are just the players that we know about. As the winter continues to shake out, teams will see their depth change, and with San Diego's deep farm system -- which Keith Law ranked as the best in baseball a year ago -- the team will have the resources with which to complete a trade or two. Whether or not the Padres do could go a long way to determining whether or not they are a sleeper.
Last year, the Cardinals took home the second wild card with 88 wins. The Padres have some work to do on the pitching front to get to that number, but they have an underrated offense and just need to add some stability to their rotation. It might be a little hard to see at this juncture, but that's why we call them sleeper teams -- because most are discounting their chances. The NL West will once again be solid, but it does not have a spectacular team, no matter how much money the Dodgers spend this offseason. Manager Bud Black wrings the most out of his players, and if he is given another solid starter or two at the season's outset, San Diego may just find itself in the thick of things come September.
Kinsler should play first base.
The Texas Rangers haven't had a great offseason so far. After attempting (and failing) to land both Zack Greinke and Justin Upton, the team also saw Josh Hamilton defect to the division rival Los Angeles Angels, while Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, and Koji Uehara are all headed to the Boston Red Sox. The only free agent they've signed is Joakim Soria, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and might not be ready for the start of the 2013 season. In other words, the Rangers are going to have quite a different look next year.
Even the players who are sticking around are likely to experience some changes, as super prospect Jurickson Profar is expected to take a bigger role in 2013, potentially even moving into an everyday job. While Elvis Andrus is blocking his path at shortstop, Profar could play a decent amount of second base, which might force the Rangers to relocate incumbent starter Ian Kinsler to another spot on the diamond.
The question facing the Rangers is where that spot should be. Besides a two-inning stint at third base -- where the team is more than pleased with Adrian Beltre -- Kinsler has spent his entire big league career at second base. With the departures of Hamilton and Napoli, the team has openings in the outfield and at DH, but they've also talked about moving Kinsler to first base, a position where they didn't get a lot of production last year. Mitch Moreland, their primary first baseman, had a wRC+ of 104, which ranked 28th in baseball among players at the position with at least 300 plate appearances.
You don't see many second baseman shift over to first base, especially those who are listed at 6-foot, but Kinsler is a better fit there than one would think based solely on his height.
While first base is generally thought of as a power position, and second baseman aren't generally known for their power, Kinsler actually hits more like a first baseman than a second baseman. For his career, he has an isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average, which gives you a measure of how much power a player hit for) of .188. For comparison, Adrian Gonzalez has an ISO of .195 over the last three years. Kinsler isn't known as a prodigious home run guy, but like Gonzalez, he racks up a copious amount of doubles, which are pretty effective for driving in runs themselves.
For instance, compare Kinsler's overall offensive performance to Adam LaRoche, whom the Rangers have been linked to at various times this winter. Here are their numbers since 2010:
Kinsler: .263/.350/.441, 111 wRC+
LaRoche: .255/.327/.462, 109 wRC+
No one thinks of LaRoche as an underpowered hitter for the position, and Kinsler's offensive track record is even stronger. Any team willing to give LaRoche a first base job should also be willing to consider Kinsler a first baseman, as there's not a lot of evidence that LaRoche is a significantly better hitter overall.
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
LaRoche doesn't actually hit for more power than Kinsler.And the Rangers wouldn't be covering totally new ground here either. There is precedent for teams moving high-contact, gap power middle infielders to first base and having it pay off in a significant way. The Milwaukee Brewers converted high-contact, middling power second baseman Paul Molitor into a first baseman at age 34, and he went on to average more than 4 wins above replacement for the next four years. Like Kinsler, Molitor was a guy who focused more on not striking out than hitting the ball over the wall, but he was still a highly productive 1B/DH, hitting better in his 30s than he did in his 20s, partially due to the improved health from not having to play a demanding position on the field.
Molitor, of course, is not the only low-strikeout, lots-of-doubles player who has succeeded as a high quality first baseman. John Olerud slugged .465 for his career, averaging 17 home runs per full season, and still produced more than 60 WAR during a brilliant career. Mark Grace slugged just .442 and never hit more than 17 home runs in a season, but he was still a consistently above average player until age 37. Don Mattingly, Will Clark, John Kruk and Sean Casey ... there's a long list of guys who were very good first baseman despite not being a prototypical slugger.
The thing most of these guys had in common, of course, was excellent defense at first base. Mattingly won nine Gold Gloves in a 10-year span, Grace won four and Olerud won three. Often times, the first baseman who doesn't hit for power makes up for the lack of home runs by saving runs in the field, as their more slender frames allow them to be far more agile at the position than the big lumbering sluggers who just try to not embarrass themselves between at-bats.
While Kinsler would have to adjust to learning a new position, he has the quickness and range to develop into that kind of quality defensive first baseman. While Kinsler was a bit of a defensive problem at second base coming up (-22 UZR in his first three seasons), his hard work has helped him become an above-average defender at second base in recent years (+17 UZR in his last three seasons). And, of course, the pool of players who Kinsler would be measured against at first base is not as impressive as the group at second, so he'd likely grade out as an average or better defender at first base even while learning how to make the transition. With more experience, Kinsler could easily become one of the best defenders at the position in the sport.
Kinsler might not look like a first baseman, but he hits for more power than you might think, and there's a strong history of smaller, skinnier players being highly valuable players at first base by making a lot of contact, hitting a bunch of doubles and playing great defense at the position. Kinsler already had the contact and doubles skill set, and his quickness should allow him to develop into a good defensive player at first as well.
With Profar forcing his way onto the roster, the Rangers need a spot for Kinsler, and they have an opening at first base. Don't be surprised if Kinsler ends up as a productive first baseman before too long, even if he's not hitting 30 home runs every year.
/SPOILER]
Rumors.
Even the players who are sticking around are likely to experience some changes, as super prospect Jurickson Profar is expected to take a bigger role in 2013, potentially even moving into an everyday job. While Elvis Andrus is blocking his path at shortstop, Profar could play a decent amount of second base, which might force the Rangers to relocate incumbent starter Ian Kinsler to another spot on the diamond.
The question facing the Rangers is where that spot should be. Besides a two-inning stint at third base -- where the team is more than pleased with Adrian Beltre -- Kinsler has spent his entire big league career at second base. With the departures of Hamilton and Napoli, the team has openings in the outfield and at DH, but they've also talked about moving Kinsler to first base, a position where they didn't get a lot of production last year. Mitch Moreland, their primary first baseman, had a wRC+ of 104, which ranked 28th in baseball among players at the position with at least 300 plate appearances.
You don't see many second baseman shift over to first base, especially those who are listed at 6-foot, but Kinsler is a better fit there than one would think based solely on his height.
While first base is generally thought of as a power position, and second baseman aren't generally known for their power, Kinsler actually hits more like a first baseman than a second baseman. For his career, he has an isolated slugging (slugging percentage minus batting average, which gives you a measure of how much power a player hit for) of .188. For comparison, Adrian Gonzalez has an ISO of .195 over the last three years. Kinsler isn't known as a prodigious home run guy, but like Gonzalez, he racks up a copious amount of doubles, which are pretty effective for driving in runs themselves.
For instance, compare Kinsler's overall offensive performance to Adam LaRoche, whom the Rangers have been linked to at various times this winter. Here are their numbers since 2010:
Kinsler: .263/.350/.441, 111 wRC+
LaRoche: .255/.327/.462, 109 wRC+
No one thinks of LaRoche as an underpowered hitter for the position, and Kinsler's offensive track record is even stronger. Any team willing to give LaRoche a first base job should also be willing to consider Kinsler a first baseman, as there's not a lot of evidence that LaRoche is a significantly better hitter overall.
[+] Enlarge
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
LaRoche doesn't actually hit for more power than Kinsler.And the Rangers wouldn't be covering totally new ground here either. There is precedent for teams moving high-contact, gap power middle infielders to first base and having it pay off in a significant way. The Milwaukee Brewers converted high-contact, middling power second baseman Paul Molitor into a first baseman at age 34, and he went on to average more than 4 wins above replacement for the next four years. Like Kinsler, Molitor was a guy who focused more on not striking out than hitting the ball over the wall, but he was still a highly productive 1B/DH, hitting better in his 30s than he did in his 20s, partially due to the improved health from not having to play a demanding position on the field.
Molitor, of course, is not the only low-strikeout, lots-of-doubles player who has succeeded as a high quality first baseman. John Olerud slugged .465 for his career, averaging 17 home runs per full season, and still produced more than 60 WAR during a brilliant career. Mark Grace slugged just .442 and never hit more than 17 home runs in a season, but he was still a consistently above average player until age 37. Don Mattingly, Will Clark, John Kruk and Sean Casey ... there's a long list of guys who were very good first baseman despite not being a prototypical slugger.
The thing most of these guys had in common, of course, was excellent defense at first base. Mattingly won nine Gold Gloves in a 10-year span, Grace won four and Olerud won three. Often times, the first baseman who doesn't hit for power makes up for the lack of home runs by saving runs in the field, as their more slender frames allow them to be far more agile at the position than the big lumbering sluggers who just try to not embarrass themselves between at-bats.
While Kinsler would have to adjust to learning a new position, he has the quickness and range to develop into that kind of quality defensive first baseman. While Kinsler was a bit of a defensive problem at second base coming up (-22 UZR in his first three seasons), his hard work has helped him become an above-average defender at second base in recent years (+17 UZR in his last three seasons). And, of course, the pool of players who Kinsler would be measured against at first base is not as impressive as the group at second, so he'd likely grade out as an average or better defender at first base even while learning how to make the transition. With more experience, Kinsler could easily become one of the best defenders at the position in the sport.
Kinsler might not look like a first baseman, but he hits for more power than you might think, and there's a strong history of smaller, skinnier players being highly valuable players at first base by making a lot of contact, hitting a bunch of doubles and playing great defense at the position. Kinsler already had the contact and doubles skill set, and his quickness should allow him to develop into a good defensive player at first as well.
With Profar forcing his way onto the roster, the Rangers need a spot for Kinsler, and they have an opening at first base. Don't be surprised if Kinsler ends up as a productive first baseman before too long, even if he's not hitting 30 home runs every year.
/SPOILER]
Rumors.
Realistic suitors for LaRoche
10:49
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailAdam LaRoche is still dangling on the open market and while the buzz suggests he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, the Baltimore Orioles may be the most likely club to give him what he wants.
LaRoche is thought to be seeking a three-year deal, according to numerous reports, and the O's have legitimate interest and may be willing to offer that third year.
The Texas Rangers could have some interest in LaRoche, but the club has approached Ian Kinsler about possibly playing first base in 2013 -- with top prospect Jurickson Profar manning second base -- which eliminates the need for LaRoche.
The Nationals do not appear willing to budge on their two-year maximum offer, which could open the door for the Orioles.
The Red Sox were mentioned early in the offseason as a potential fit for LaRoche, but the club is working to finalize a deal with Mike Napoli, whose presence would assist in covering the first base position and likely push them out of the LaRoche market.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Adam LaRoche
Twins projected rotation
10:01
AM ETMinnesota Twins Recommend0Comments0EmailPotential Twins' starting five
1. Vance Worley, RHP2. Kevin Correia, RHP3. Scott Diamond, LHP4. Mike Pelfrey, RHP5. Liam Hendriks, RHPThe Minnesota Twins set out this offseason to add starting pitching to their organization, both in terms of the big-league level for 2013 and for the future. They have done just that, and may not be done.
The club has signed right-handers Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia to free agent contracts, and acquired Vance Worley, Trevor May and Alex Meyer via trade.
General manager Terry Ryan continues to look for help for next season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Star-Tribune reports that the Twins have contacted the agent for right-hander Rich Harden.
Harden could attract interest from several clubs looking to sign a veteran with some upside without guaranteeing a roster spot.
The possible starting five suggested above, right could include prospect Kyle Gibson and/or Brian Duensing, and May could be in the mix, too.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Minnesota Twins, Rich Harden, Scott Diamond, Brian Duensing, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley
Updated Mets target list
9:55
AM ETNew York Mets Recommend0Comments1EmailThe New York Mets have had a busy offseason. They re-signed David Wright to a big contract and traded R.A. Dickey for a strong package of prospects. Their next moves may bring players in, rather than sending talent away.
Thursday, Ken Davidoff tweeted that the Mets have expressed interest in left-hander Francisco Liriano, who could be a nice buy-low, sell-high candidate for 2013. Friday morning Davidoff reports that Carl Pavano, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano are also of interest to the Mets, as are Chris Young and Shaun Marcum. Harang and Capuano are trade candidates.
Kevin Burkhardt of SNY tweeted that the club is very interested in outfielder Grady Sizemore. Sizemore, potentially like Liriano, is likely to get a one-year contract with a chance to reestablish himself for he market next year.
Sizemore comes with great injury risk, so the Mets aren't likely to rely on him to cover a position, but if he returns to form at even a 75 percent clip, they can flip him in July to a contender needing a bat and an outfielder.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Carl Pavano, Shaun Marcum, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, New York Mets, Francisco Liriano, Grady Sizemore
Porcello for bullpen help?
9:51
AM ETRick Porcello | Tigers Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Detroit Tigers are believed to have had conversations with a number of clubs regarding right-hander Rick Porcello, and have fielded calls on Drew Smyly, according to reports. With a few moves Wednesday and Thursday, however, the Tigers' potential trade partners may have been altered.
The Angels picked up Jason Vargas from Seattle and the Cubs signed both Carlos Villanueva and Edwin Jackson. The Halos and Cubs could both be out on Porcello now, but the Mariners could remain in play.
The Pirates, Rockies and Padres have also been mentioned as possible fits, and Jon Morosi tweets that the Orioles have been in contact with Detroit, too.
Baltimore is also in talks with free agent Joe Saunders and if they get that deal done they could remove themselves from the Porcello conversation.
Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com pens an update Friday morning in which he suggests the Tigers could seek bullpen help in exchange for Porcello and that the O's and M's are the most active in talks.
One thing I can't stop thinking: Trade Porcello, keep Smyly, unless someone makes an offer that can't be refused. The Tigers don't have to deal either pitcher -- neither will earn a prohibitive salary in 2013 -- so GM Dave Dombrowski has the leverage.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
Mets like Crisp
9:42
AM ETCoco Crisp | Athletics Recommend0Comments0EmailWhen the Oakland Athletics acquired Chris Young from the Arizona Diamondbacks in October, Coco Crisp became expendable. Sure, the A's can use of the two in left field and focus on defense, but centerfielders are not easy to find, suggesting Crisp and Young have more value to the A's as trade bait.
Thursday, Ken Davidoff reports via Twitter that the Mets have expressed interest in Crisp, but that the sense is the A's will hang onto the switch hitting speedster.
Perhaps the free agency of Michael Bourn is holding up the potential trade market for Crisp and once Bourn signs, Crisp's value could soar.
Other clubs that could use a strong glove in center include the Cubs and Rangers. The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo earlier this month and plan to use him in center, but Crisp would allow the club to use Choo in a corner where he profiles much better defensively and use both Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick in more fitting roles.
The Braves could see Crisp as a nice fit in left field, as Martin Prado moves to third base to take over for the retired Chipper Jones.
The Mets in-house outfield options leave much to be desired as the most experienced outfielder on the roster is Daniel Murphy, who is now playing second base.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, Shin-Soo Choo, Oakland Athletics, New York Mets, Chris Young, Coco Crisp
Three questions with Berkman
9:11
AM ETLance Berkman | Cardinals Recommend0Comments4EmailLance Berkman was the prime target of the Houston Astros in they search for a designated hitter, but the club inked Carlos Pena to a one-year deal Monday and stated that they planned on using him as the Dh as well as a little first base. Where does that leave Berkman?.
The veteran, if he chooses to return in 2013, could be a fit in Tampa Bay or even Baltimore, and the Mariners or Indians could also have interest.
The Astros could still see Berkman as a fit if they wanted to mix the two into the 1B/DH rotation.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney writes in his blog Friday that there could be strong interest in Berkman, but there are questions to which clubs will need answers first:
- Jason A. Churchill
Buster Olney
Strong interest in Berkman?
"Under the right circumstances, there will be no shortage of interest in him because when he's healthy, he can be a devastating on-base percentage machine. Even in a season in which he hobbled through just 32 games last summer, he posted a .381 on-base percentage. But there are three overriding questions that executives privately say they have about him:
A) Is he healthy, after having knee surgery?
B) Is he in shape?
C) Is he motivated to play again? Because he needs C) to get to B).
Tags:Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Nationals eyeing Howell, Gonzalez
8:46
AM ETWashington Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Washington Nationals, having lost Sean Burnett to free agency, are considering J.P. Howell and Mike Gonzalez, according to various reports, including ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden, via Twitter.
Gonzalez, Bowden's tweet adds, is also being pursued by the Cincinnati Reds. The southpaw could also be a fit in Philadelphia and Texas. Howell, has four other suitors.
The Nationals signed Bill Bray to a minor league deal earlier this offseason, but it may not be out of the question the clubs signs both Gonzalez and Howell, especially if they plan on moving Michael Morse after signing Adam LaRoche, clearing some payroll.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals, J.P. Howell, Mike Gonzalez
Catching market full of backups
8:33
AM ETMarket for catchers Recommend0Comments20EmailMike Napoli | Pending agreement with Red SoxA.J. Pierzynski | Rangers: one year, $7.5 millionRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderBrian SchneiderYorvit TorrealbaRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorJesus FloresJ.R. Tow*****bby WilsonThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class is no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars, and now that Pierzynski has signed, the market is full of part-time options and depth.
The Yankees appear set on starting the season with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Austin Romine, though it's conceivable they could take a flier on another veteran, particularly on a minor league contract with no guaranteed roster spot.
Now that the Blue Jays have traded prospect Travis d'Arnaud to the Mets -- after dealing Jeff Mathis to the Marlins -- it's likely that two of John Buck, Josh Thole or J.P. Arencibia stay put, but one of them could go. Buck seems to be the best bet to be moved.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals, at best, or minor league contracts.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:J.P. Arencibia, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Russell Martin, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Geovany Soto, Kelly Shoppach, Yorvit Torrealba, Miguel Olivo
The timing of a Stanton trade
8:13
AM ETGiancarlo Stanton | Marlins Recommend0Comments0EmailTop collections of youth
1. San Diego Padres
Yasmani Grandal, Case Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Max Fried, Austin Hedges, Jedd Gyorko, Joe Ross, Zach Eflin, Walker Weickel 2. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer, Enny Romero, Drew Vettleson, Blake Snell, Richie Shaffer, Taylor Guerreri, Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, Alex Colome 3. Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, James Paxton, Victor Sanchez 4. Oakland Athletics
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Addison Russell, Sony Gray, Dan Straily, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Derek Norris 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Wyatt Mathisen, Luis Heredia Perhaps the hottest topic among many fan bases is the idea that the Miami Marlins may field offers for right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Since the Fish traded away their two best starting pitchers and their starting shortstop, the club has fielded calls, but sources tell Rumor Central that Miami's executives are refusing to discuss trades involving the budding superstar. That stance could change fairly soon, however.
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until this time next year, which means he will spend 2013 as a 23-year-old threat to the 50-homer mark and won't crack the half-million dollar mark in terms of salary. He'll be affordable, even for the Marlins, through 2014, too.
Stanton's moderate salary, however, may not -- and should not -- prevent the club from seeing what they can get for him between now and the start of the 2014 season. It may be more ideal to let him continue to mash at the plate, perhaps hit 40-50 long balls this coming season and driving the trade cost through the roof.
Stanton, of course, made it known how unhappy he was with the organization's decision to have a fire sale, creating a scenario in which its difficult to believe he'd ever sign an extension to stay in South Beach. Once the team decides the time is right to seriously consider trading him, rival clubs will line up around the block to make their pitch.
If Stanton gets off to a great start in '13 it's conceivable that the Marlins' brass could check the offer sheets to see what they can get and if a team overwhelms them, Stanton could be dealt before the trade deadline.
Such a transaction, whether it take place over the summer or between seasons, is likely to be a franchise changer, at least if Miami handles it right and demands the right kind of talents in return. The timing is right sometime in the next 15 months or so, however, since the club-controlled years of service are extremely valuable and the closer he gets to free agency the more his value sinks.
Any of the 29 other clubs could have strong interest and a handful of those that have strong farm systems and good-to-great young talents in the big leagues will have a shot to land the Big Fish. They'll likely have to wait a year, but the chances Stanton isn't worth the wait -- and the premium bait it will require to get the Marlins to bite.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton
December 20, 2012Rangers search for pitching
4:01
PM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Texas Rangers began the offseason looking to add a bat -- perhaps in the form of re-signing Josh Hamilton -- and a significant acquisition for the starting rotation. In the past two weeks, the club's top targets -- Hamilton and Zack Greinke -- have signed with other clubs. The biggest need may be the starting pitcher, but with Edwin Jackson signing in Chicago Thursday, there isn't a lot left on the free agent market.
The top free agents include Kyle Lohse, Francisco Liriano and Shaun Marcum, but the trade market may be dry. Matt Garza could potentially be available, but he's coming off an injury during the second half of 2012 and the Cubs may want to see what they have in '13 before moving their most accomplished starter.
If the Phillies are willing to discuss Cliff Lee, the Rangers could be a fit. The Phillies' motivation for moving Lee would be centered on clearing payroll so they could sign an outfielder such as Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher. Whether either is a possibility is unknown, so for now Lee is not on the trade block.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Cliff Lee, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse
December 20, 2012Next for the Mariners
3:15
PM ETSeattle Mariners Recommend0Comments0EmailIt's been a disappointing offseason for the Seattle Mariners thus far as they lost out on Josh Hamilton and had been unable to make any significant addition to the league's worst offense. Until Wednesday, when the club traded left-hander Jason Vargas to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Kendrys Morales.
Morales is likely to share time at DH and first base with the likes of Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. In the meantime, the M's may not be done adding to their roster.
With Vargas gone, the Mariners probably have a true need in the starting rotation. They have yet to be linked to Edwin Jackson or Kyle Lohse, but could show interest in Shaun Marcum or make a trade for a veteran arm or two prior to spring training. It's likely that there will be at least one non-roster invitee fighting for one of the five rotation spot, too, in the same manner Kevin Millwood did a year ago.
The Mariners, of course, are not done improving their offense and word is they are turning over every rock in an effort to field a competitive team next year. They have money to spend and for the right return -- more than two years control of a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat, they also have prospects to trade.
One bat they have been linked to of late is Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to a report by FOXSports.com.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Seattle Mariners, Jason Vargas, Kendrys Morales
December 20, 2012Two in on Hanrahan
2:52
PM ETJoel Hanrahan | Pirates Recommend0Comments2EmailAt least two clubs, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, are eyeing Pittsburgh Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan, who is due about $7 million via arbitration,
Those two clubs are the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. The Dodgers signed right-hander Brandon League to a three-year deal earlier this offseason and adding Hanrahan likely makes League an expensive setup man.
The Red Sox's situation is different. Andrew Bailey is a walking injury and cannot be relied upon entering the season and Daniel Bard took a large step back in 2012 after attempting to transition into a starter.
ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes confirms the club's interest in Hanrahan, and explores what the Sox may be able to offer the Pirates in return:
- Jason A. Churchill
Gordon Edes | ESPN Boston
The asking price for Hanrahan
"With incumbent closerAndrew Bailey still a question mark after a season in which he was injured for most of the year, then pitched ineffectively, it makes sense that the Sox would explore bullpen upgrades. But Pittsburgh is looking for pitching, primarily starters, and one major league source said Pittsburgh is seeking a "significant return" for Hanrahan, an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He earned $4.1 million in 2012 and can expect a significant bump in salary arbitration. Boston's rotation would appear to be set with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey and Felix Doubront, so it's possible the Sox could offer left-hander Franklin Morales or right-handerAlfredo Aceves, or tap into their inventory of young arms, offering a Brandon Workman or Anthony Ranaudo. But that's speculation."
Tags
ittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Daniel Bard, Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan
December 20, 2012Report: Cubs land E-Jax
2:38
PM ETEdwin Jackson | Nationals Recommend0Comments3EmailThe Edwin Jackson sweepstakes is over, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. The right-hander has signed with the Chicago Cubs for four-years and $52 million, giving the club two free agent starting pitching acquisition this week.
If the season started today the Cubs' rotation would consist of Jackson, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Baker and Matt Garza, with Scott Feldman a sixth option.
The Cubs' next move could be trading Alfonso Soriano or adding to the club's outfield or bullpen.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers
December 20, 2012Marlins add Polanco
2:33
PM ETMiami Marlins Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Miami Marlins were considering a small handful of options at third base, including veteran Miguel Tejada, whom the club had scouted in the winter leagues, tweeted ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.
The Marlins' Thursday signed Placido Polanco to a one-year deal and the veteran will presumably get most of the reps at the hot corner in 2013.
It's conceivable that the Fish will add more options this winter and use multiple players at the position, especially considering Polanco's recent injury history, so the door may not be closed on Tejada, Brando Inge or Mark DeRosa.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Miami Marlins, Greg Dobbs, Mark DeRosa, Brandon Inge, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada
December 20, 2012Available lefty relievers
1:27
PM ETFree Agent Relievers Recommend0Comments4EmailThe relief pitching market again has seen the bar set quite high with Jeremy Affeldt's three-year, $18 million deal to remain in San Francisco. Affeldt was the top left-hander on the market, leaving a mediocre crop for the rest of the league.
Furthermore, Oliver Perez re-signed with Seattle and veteran Brian Fuentes, 37, announced his retirement last month. J.P. Howell, Pedro Feliciano and Mike Gonzalez remain on the market.
Randy Choate inked a deal with the Cardinals Wednesday, shrinking the lefty reliever market by one. Veteran Darren Oliver is key to the free agent market for lefty relievers, as he's considering retirement. If he hangs up the spikes the Blue Jays may be in the market for one of the aforementioned southpaws, adding demand to the limited supply.
Jon Morosi reports Wednesday that Oliver has yet to make a decision on his future and has not asked to be traded. Oliver lives in Dallas and presumably would like to go back to the Rangers to finish his career.
Sean Burnett came off the board Wednesday with a two-year deal from the Angels.
Right-hander Koji Uehara could be an alternative for clubs, as the 37-year-old held right-handed batters to a .188 average in 2012 and has historically been very good against them thanks to plus-plus control and a big-time changeup.
With Perez in the fold, Seattle could be willing to part with one of their other two solid lefty relievers in Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez, Pedro Feliciano, Randy Choate, Brian Fuentes, Jeremy Affeldt, Sean Burnett, Tim Byrdak, J.P. Howell, Oliver Perez, Charlie Furbush, Lucas Luetge, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees
December 20, 2012At least five eyeing Howell
12:12
PM ETJ.P. Howell | Rays Recommend0Comments0EmailThe market nearly has run dry on left-handed relievers this offseason -- check out the few left -- but the likes of J.P. Howell remains and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that five clubs have shown interest.
The five are the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners and Nationals, and there may be others that have gone unreported to date.
The Mariners' interest is a bit peculiar since they have three southpaws -- Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush -- all due back in 2013 after quality 2012 campaigns.
The Nationals lost Sean Burnett to the Angels earlier this month, and have few in-house options, if any. Ladson mentions Bill Bray as one possibility.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:J.P. Howell, Bill Bray, Sean Burnett, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
December 20, 2012Available free agent starters
10:04
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments15EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP | Tigers: five years, $80 million Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHPRyan Dempster, RHP | Red Sox: two years, $26.5 millionJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHPShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPThis year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.
Until Greinke inked with L.A. last weekend, the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees). Since Greinke's deal, though, we've seen Sanchez get a big-money, multi-year contract, as well as Dempster sign with the Red Sox, so things have picked up.
The big x factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in last weekend's blockbuster. That likely takes the Royals out of the list of eligible suitors, especially the top two -- unless either Lohse or Jackson can be had on a one-year deal -- but still leaves plenty of teams looking for pitching, including the Cubs, Brewers, Twins and Indians. The deep-pocketed Angels and Rangers are also still looking to fill out their rotations.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
December 20, 2012Rockies' search for rotation help
10:04
AM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments0EmailIf the season were to start today -- and thank goodness it doesn't, because the weather outside is frightful, and the fire is so delightful ... also, if the season started in mid-December, Dean Martin would have nothing about which to sing -- the Colorado Rockies might be an arm short in their rotation.
Among the club's present options are Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge De La Rosa. There's nothing wrong with such a collection on the surface, but ...
Nicasio and De La Rosa are coming off serious injuries, Chatwood may belong in the bullpen and both Pomeranz and Friedrich still need work on their control and command.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies are eyeing Jeff Karstens and Freddy Garcia, and the club was linked to Rick Porcello last week.
The Tigers are fielding calls on Drew Smyly, too, an arm that could interest the Rockies, though they may prefer to spend a few million bucks rather than giving up talent to acquire one.
Jeff Francis has also been linked to the Rockies and remaining free agents such as Aaron Cook, Rich Harden, Derek Lowe, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, Carlos Villanueva and Chris Young could all be considerations.
- Jason A. Churchill
10:49
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailAdam LaRoche is still dangling on the open market and while the buzz suggests he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, the Baltimore Orioles may be the most likely club to give him what he wants.
LaRoche is thought to be seeking a three-year deal, according to numerous reports, and the O's have legitimate interest and may be willing to offer that third year.
The Texas Rangers could have some interest in LaRoche, but the club has approached Ian Kinsler about possibly playing first base in 2013 -- with top prospect Jurickson Profar manning second base -- which eliminates the need for LaRoche.
The Nationals do not appear willing to budge on their two-year maximum offer, which could open the door for the Orioles.
The Red Sox were mentioned early in the offseason as a potential fit for LaRoche, but the club is working to finalize a deal with Mike Napoli, whose presence would assist in covering the first base position and likely push them out of the LaRoche market.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Adam LaRoche
Twins projected rotation
10:01
AM ETMinnesota Twins Recommend0Comments0EmailPotential Twins' starting five
1. Vance Worley, RHP2. Kevin Correia, RHP3. Scott Diamond, LHP4. Mike Pelfrey, RHP5. Liam Hendriks, RHPThe Minnesota Twins set out this offseason to add starting pitching to their organization, both in terms of the big-league level for 2013 and for the future. They have done just that, and may not be done.
The club has signed right-handers Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia to free agent contracts, and acquired Vance Worley, Trevor May and Alex Meyer via trade.
General manager Terry Ryan continues to look for help for next season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Star-Tribune reports that the Twins have contacted the agent for right-hander Rich Harden.
Harden could attract interest from several clubs looking to sign a veteran with some upside without guaranteeing a roster spot.
The possible starting five suggested above, right could include prospect Kyle Gibson and/or Brian Duensing, and May could be in the mix, too.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Minnesota Twins, Rich Harden, Scott Diamond, Brian Duensing, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley
Updated Mets target list
9:55
AM ETNew York Mets Recommend0Comments1EmailThe New York Mets have had a busy offseason. They re-signed David Wright to a big contract and traded R.A. Dickey for a strong package of prospects. Their next moves may bring players in, rather than sending talent away.
Thursday, Ken Davidoff tweeted that the Mets have expressed interest in left-hander Francisco Liriano, who could be a nice buy-low, sell-high candidate for 2013. Friday morning Davidoff reports that Carl Pavano, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano are also of interest to the Mets, as are Chris Young and Shaun Marcum. Harang and Capuano are trade candidates.
Kevin Burkhardt of SNY tweeted that the club is very interested in outfielder Grady Sizemore. Sizemore, potentially like Liriano, is likely to get a one-year contract with a chance to reestablish himself for he market next year.
Sizemore comes with great injury risk, so the Mets aren't likely to rely on him to cover a position, but if he returns to form at even a 75 percent clip, they can flip him in July to a contender needing a bat and an outfielder.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Carl Pavano, Shaun Marcum, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, New York Mets, Francisco Liriano, Grady Sizemore
Porcello for bullpen help?
9:51
AM ETRick Porcello | Tigers Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Detroit Tigers are believed to have had conversations with a number of clubs regarding right-hander Rick Porcello, and have fielded calls on Drew Smyly, according to reports. With a few moves Wednesday and Thursday, however, the Tigers' potential trade partners may have been altered.
The Angels picked up Jason Vargas from Seattle and the Cubs signed both Carlos Villanueva and Edwin Jackson. The Halos and Cubs could both be out on Porcello now, but the Mariners could remain in play.
The Pirates, Rockies and Padres have also been mentioned as possible fits, and Jon Morosi tweets that the Orioles have been in contact with Detroit, too.
Baltimore is also in talks with free agent Joe Saunders and if they get that deal done they could remove themselves from the Porcello conversation.
Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com pens an update Friday morning in which he suggests the Tigers could seek bullpen help in exchange for Porcello and that the O's and M's are the most active in talks.
One thing I can't stop thinking: Trade Porcello, keep Smyly, unless someone makes an offer that can't be refused. The Tigers don't have to deal either pitcher -- neither will earn a prohibitive salary in 2013 -- so GM Dave Dombrowski has the leverage.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
Mets like Crisp
9:42
AM ETCoco Crisp | Athletics Recommend0Comments0EmailWhen the Oakland Athletics acquired Chris Young from the Arizona Diamondbacks in October, Coco Crisp became expendable. Sure, the A's can use of the two in left field and focus on defense, but centerfielders are not easy to find, suggesting Crisp and Young have more value to the A's as trade bait.
Thursday, Ken Davidoff reports via Twitter that the Mets have expressed interest in Crisp, but that the sense is the A's will hang onto the switch hitting speedster.
Perhaps the free agency of Michael Bourn is holding up the potential trade market for Crisp and once Bourn signs, Crisp's value could soar.
Other clubs that could use a strong glove in center include the Cubs and Rangers. The Reds acquired Shin-Soo Choo earlier this month and plan to use him in center, but Crisp would allow the club to use Choo in a corner where he profiles much better defensively and use both Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick in more fitting roles.
The Braves could see Crisp as a nice fit in left field, as Martin Prado moves to third base to take over for the retired Chipper Jones.
The Mets in-house outfield options leave much to be desired as the most experienced outfielder on the roster is Daniel Murphy, who is now playing second base.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, Shin-Soo Choo, Oakland Athletics, New York Mets, Chris Young, Coco Crisp
Three questions with Berkman
9:11
AM ETLance Berkman | Cardinals Recommend0Comments4EmailLance Berkman was the prime target of the Houston Astros in they search for a designated hitter, but the club inked Carlos Pena to a one-year deal Monday and stated that they planned on using him as the Dh as well as a little first base. Where does that leave Berkman?.
The veteran, if he chooses to return in 2013, could be a fit in Tampa Bay or even Baltimore, and the Mariners or Indians could also have interest.
The Astros could still see Berkman as a fit if they wanted to mix the two into the 1B/DH rotation.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney writes in his blog Friday that there could be strong interest in Berkman, but there are questions to which clubs will need answers first:
- Jason A. Churchill
Buster Olney
Strong interest in Berkman?
"Under the right circumstances, there will be no shortage of interest in him because when he's healthy, he can be a devastating on-base percentage machine. Even in a season in which he hobbled through just 32 games last summer, he posted a .381 on-base percentage. But there are three overriding questions that executives privately say they have about him:
A) Is he healthy, after having knee surgery?
B) Is he in shape?
C) Is he motivated to play again? Because he needs C) to get to B).
Tags:Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Nationals eyeing Howell, Gonzalez
8:46
AM ETWashington Nationals Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Washington Nationals, having lost Sean Burnett to free agency, are considering J.P. Howell and Mike Gonzalez, according to various reports, including ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden, via Twitter.
Gonzalez, Bowden's tweet adds, is also being pursued by the Cincinnati Reds. The southpaw could also be a fit in Philadelphia and Texas. Howell, has four other suitors.
The Nationals signed Bill Bray to a minor league deal earlier this offseason, but it may not be out of the question the clubs signs both Gonzalez and Howell, especially if they plan on moving Michael Morse after signing Adam LaRoche, clearing some payroll.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals, J.P. Howell, Mike Gonzalez
Catching market full of backups
8:33
AM ETMarket for catchers Recommend0Comments20EmailMike Napoli | Pending agreement with Red SoxA.J. Pierzynski | Rangers: one year, $7.5 millionRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderBrian SchneiderYorvit TorrealbaRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorJesus FloresJ.R. Tow*****bby WilsonThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class is no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars, and now that Pierzynski has signed, the market is full of part-time options and depth.
The Yankees appear set on starting the season with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Austin Romine, though it's conceivable they could take a flier on another veteran, particularly on a minor league contract with no guaranteed roster spot.
Now that the Blue Jays have traded prospect Travis d'Arnaud to the Mets -- after dealing Jeff Mathis to the Marlins -- it's likely that two of John Buck, Josh Thole or J.P. Arencibia stay put, but one of them could go. Buck seems to be the best bet to be moved.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals, at best, or minor league contracts.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:J.P. Arencibia, A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Russell Martin, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Geovany Soto, Kelly Shoppach, Yorvit Torrealba, Miguel Olivo
The timing of a Stanton trade
8:13
AM ETGiancarlo Stanton | Marlins Recommend0Comments0EmailTop collections of youth
1. San Diego Padres
Yasmani Grandal, Case Kelly, Rymer Liriano, Max Fried, Austin Hedges, Jedd Gyorko, Joe Ross, Zach Eflin, Walker Weickel 2. Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer, Enny Romero, Drew Vettleson, Blake Snell, Richie Shaffer, Taylor Guerreri, Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, Alex Colome 3. Seattle Mariners
Taijuan Walker, Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller, James Paxton, Victor Sanchez 4. Oakland Athletics
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Addison Russell, Sony Gray, Dan Straily, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Derek Norris 5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Tony Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Wyatt Mathisen, Luis Heredia Perhaps the hottest topic among many fan bases is the idea that the Miami Marlins may field offers for right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Since the Fish traded away their two best starting pitchers and their starting shortstop, the club has fielded calls, but sources tell Rumor Central that Miami's executives are refusing to discuss trades involving the budding superstar. That stance could change fairly soon, however.
Stanton will not be arbitration eligible until this time next year, which means he will spend 2013 as a 23-year-old threat to the 50-homer mark and won't crack the half-million dollar mark in terms of salary. He'll be affordable, even for the Marlins, through 2014, too.
Stanton's moderate salary, however, may not -- and should not -- prevent the club from seeing what they can get for him between now and the start of the 2014 season. It may be more ideal to let him continue to mash at the plate, perhaps hit 40-50 long balls this coming season and driving the trade cost through the roof.
Stanton, of course, made it known how unhappy he was with the organization's decision to have a fire sale, creating a scenario in which its difficult to believe he'd ever sign an extension to stay in South Beach. Once the team decides the time is right to seriously consider trading him, rival clubs will line up around the block to make their pitch.
If Stanton gets off to a great start in '13 it's conceivable that the Marlins' brass could check the offer sheets to see what they can get and if a team overwhelms them, Stanton could be dealt before the trade deadline.
Such a transaction, whether it take place over the summer or between seasons, is likely to be a franchise changer, at least if Miami handles it right and demands the right kind of talents in return. The timing is right sometime in the next 15 months or so, however, since the club-controlled years of service are extremely valuable and the closer he gets to free agency the more his value sinks.
Any of the 29 other clubs could have strong interest and a handful of those that have strong farm systems and good-to-great young talents in the big leagues will have a shot to land the Big Fish. They'll likely have to wait a year, but the chances Stanton isn't worth the wait -- and the premium bait it will require to get the Marlins to bite.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton
December 20, 2012Rangers search for pitching
4:01
PM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Texas Rangers began the offseason looking to add a bat -- perhaps in the form of re-signing Josh Hamilton -- and a significant acquisition for the starting rotation. In the past two weeks, the club's top targets -- Hamilton and Zack Greinke -- have signed with other clubs. The biggest need may be the starting pitcher, but with Edwin Jackson signing in Chicago Thursday, there isn't a lot left on the free agent market.
The top free agents include Kyle Lohse, Francisco Liriano and Shaun Marcum, but the trade market may be dry. Matt Garza could potentially be available, but he's coming off an injury during the second half of 2012 and the Cubs may want to see what they have in '13 before moving their most accomplished starter.
If the Phillies are willing to discuss Cliff Lee, the Rangers could be a fit. The Phillies' motivation for moving Lee would be centered on clearing payroll so they could sign an outfielder such as Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher. Whether either is a possibility is unknown, so for now Lee is not on the trade block.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Cliff Lee, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse
December 20, 2012Next for the Mariners
3:15
PM ETSeattle Mariners Recommend0Comments0EmailIt's been a disappointing offseason for the Seattle Mariners thus far as they lost out on Josh Hamilton and had been unable to make any significant addition to the league's worst offense. Until Wednesday, when the club traded left-hander Jason Vargas to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Kendrys Morales.
Morales is likely to share time at DH and first base with the likes of Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. In the meantime, the M's may not be done adding to their roster.
With Vargas gone, the Mariners probably have a true need in the starting rotation. They have yet to be linked to Edwin Jackson or Kyle Lohse, but could show interest in Shaun Marcum or make a trade for a veteran arm or two prior to spring training. It's likely that there will be at least one non-roster invitee fighting for one of the five rotation spot, too, in the same manner Kevin Millwood did a year ago.
The Mariners, of course, are not done improving their offense and word is they are turning over every rock in an effort to field a competitive team next year. They have money to spend and for the right return -- more than two years control of a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat, they also have prospects to trade.
One bat they have been linked to of late is Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to a report by FOXSports.com.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Seattle Mariners, Jason Vargas, Kendrys Morales
December 20, 2012Two in on Hanrahan
2:52
PM ETJoel Hanrahan | Pirates Recommend0Comments2EmailAt least two clubs, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, are eyeing Pittsburgh Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan, who is due about $7 million via arbitration,
Those two clubs are the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. The Dodgers signed right-hander Brandon League to a three-year deal earlier this offseason and adding Hanrahan likely makes League an expensive setup man.
The Red Sox's situation is different. Andrew Bailey is a walking injury and cannot be relied upon entering the season and Daniel Bard took a large step back in 2012 after attempting to transition into a starter.
ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes confirms the club's interest in Hanrahan, and explores what the Sox may be able to offer the Pirates in return:
- Jason A. Churchill
Gordon Edes | ESPN Boston
The asking price for Hanrahan
"With incumbent closerAndrew Bailey still a question mark after a season in which he was injured for most of the year, then pitched ineffectively, it makes sense that the Sox would explore bullpen upgrades. But Pittsburgh is looking for pitching, primarily starters, and one major league source said Pittsburgh is seeking a "significant return" for Hanrahan, an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He earned $4.1 million in 2012 and can expect a significant bump in salary arbitration. Boston's rotation would appear to be set with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Dempster, John Lackey and Felix Doubront, so it's possible the Sox could offer left-hander Franklin Morales or right-handerAlfredo Aceves, or tap into their inventory of young arms, offering a Brandon Workman or Anthony Ranaudo. But that's speculation."
Tags
ittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Daniel Bard, Andrew Bailey, Joel HanrahanDecember 20, 2012Report: Cubs land E-Jax
2:38
PM ETEdwin Jackson | Nationals Recommend0Comments3EmailThe Edwin Jackson sweepstakes is over, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. The right-hander has signed with the Chicago Cubs for four-years and $52 million, giving the club two free agent starting pitching acquisition this week.
If the season started today the Cubs' rotation would consist of Jackson, Carlos Villanueva, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Baker and Matt Garza, with Scott Feldman a sixth option.
The Cubs' next move could be trading Alfonso Soriano or adding to the club's outfield or bullpen.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Milwaukee Brewers, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers
December 20, 2012Marlins add Polanco
2:33
PM ETMiami Marlins Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Miami Marlins were considering a small handful of options at third base, including veteran Miguel Tejada, whom the club had scouted in the winter leagues, tweeted ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.
The Marlins' Thursday signed Placido Polanco to a one-year deal and the veteran will presumably get most of the reps at the hot corner in 2013.
It's conceivable that the Fish will add more options this winter and use multiple players at the position, especially considering Polanco's recent injury history, so the door may not be closed on Tejada, Brando Inge or Mark DeRosa.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Miami Marlins, Greg Dobbs, Mark DeRosa, Brandon Inge, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada
December 20, 2012Available lefty relievers
1:27
PM ETFree Agent Relievers Recommend0Comments4EmailThe relief pitching market again has seen the bar set quite high with Jeremy Affeldt's three-year, $18 million deal to remain in San Francisco. Affeldt was the top left-hander on the market, leaving a mediocre crop for the rest of the league.
Furthermore, Oliver Perez re-signed with Seattle and veteran Brian Fuentes, 37, announced his retirement last month. J.P. Howell, Pedro Feliciano and Mike Gonzalez remain on the market.
Randy Choate inked a deal with the Cardinals Wednesday, shrinking the lefty reliever market by one. Veteran Darren Oliver is key to the free agent market for lefty relievers, as he's considering retirement. If he hangs up the spikes the Blue Jays may be in the market for one of the aforementioned southpaws, adding demand to the limited supply.
Jon Morosi reports Wednesday that Oliver has yet to make a decision on his future and has not asked to be traded. Oliver lives in Dallas and presumably would like to go back to the Rangers to finish his career.
Sean Burnett came off the board Wednesday with a two-year deal from the Angels.
Right-hander Koji Uehara could be an alternative for clubs, as the 37-year-old held right-handed batters to a .188 average in 2012 and has historically been very good against them thanks to plus-plus control and a big-time changeup.
With Perez in the fold, Seattle could be willing to part with one of their other two solid lefty relievers in Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez, Pedro Feliciano, Randy Choate, Brian Fuentes, Jeremy Affeldt, Sean Burnett, Tim Byrdak, J.P. Howell, Oliver Perez, Charlie Furbush, Lucas Luetge, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees
December 20, 2012At least five eyeing Howell
12:12
PM ETJ.P. Howell | Rays Recommend0Comments0EmailThe market nearly has run dry on left-handed relievers this offseason -- check out the few left -- but the likes of J.P. Howell remains and MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that five clubs have shown interest.
The five are the Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Mariners and Nationals, and there may be others that have gone unreported to date.
The Mariners' interest is a bit peculiar since they have three southpaws -- Oliver Perez, Lucas Luetge and Charlie Furbush -- all due back in 2013 after quality 2012 campaigns.
The Nationals lost Sean Burnett to the Angels earlier this month, and have few in-house options, if any. Ladson mentions Bill Bray as one possibility.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:J.P. Howell, Bill Bray, Sean Burnett, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
December 20, 2012Available free agent starters
10:04
AM ETFree Agent Starters Recommend0Comments15EmailFree Agent Starting PitchersZack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 millionAnibal Sanchez, RHP | Tigers: five years, $80 million Kyle Lohse, RHPEdwin Jackson, RHPRyan Dempster, RHP | Red Sox: two years, $26.5 millionJeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 millionBrandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 millionHisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 millionHiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 millionDan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 millionFrancisco Liriano, LHPShaun Marcum, RHPRoy Oswalt, RHPJoe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHPThis year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.
Until Greinke inked with L.A. last weekend, the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees). Since Greinke's deal, though, we've seen Sanchez get a big-money, multi-year contract, as well as Dempster sign with the Red Sox, so things have picked up.
The big x factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in last weekend's blockbuster. That likely takes the Royals out of the list of eligible suitors, especially the top two -- unless either Lohse or Jackson can be had on a one-year deal -- but still leaves plenty of teams looking for pitching, including the Cubs, Brewers, Twins and Indians. The deep-pocketed Angels and Rangers are also still looking to fill out their rotations.
- Jason A. Churchill
Tags:Texas Rangers, Anibal Sanchez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster
December 20, 2012Rockies' search for rotation help
10:04
AM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments0EmailIf the season were to start today -- and thank goodness it doesn't, because the weather outside is frightful, and the fire is so delightful ... also, if the season started in mid-December, Dean Martin would have nothing about which to sing -- the Colorado Rockies might be an arm short in their rotation.
Among the club's present options are Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Tyler Chatwood, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge De La Rosa. There's nothing wrong with such a collection on the surface, but ...
Nicasio and De La Rosa are coming off serious injuries, Chatwood may belong in the bullpen and both Pomeranz and Friedrich still need work on their control and command.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies are eyeing Jeff Karstens and Freddy Garcia, and the club was linked to Rick Porcello last week.
The Tigers are fielding calls on Drew Smyly, too, an arm that could interest the Rockies, though they may prefer to spend a few million bucks rather than giving up talent to acquire one.
Jeff Francis has also been linked to the Rockies and remaining free agents such as Aaron Cook, Rich Harden, Derek Lowe, Shaun Marcum, Kevin Millwood, Carlos Villanueva and Chris Young could all be considerations.
- Jason A. Churchill
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Ryan Freel killed himself.
It seemed like he got a concussion every couple weeks when he played. Even had a guy named Farney that lived in his head.
It seemed like he got a concussion every couple weeks when he played. Even had a guy named Farney that lived in his head.
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|I R.I.P.
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not the biggest reds fan around here, but I always looked forward to how Freel played. one of the hardest working players on the Reds back then.
very sad to hear him go. |I even more so for his daughters, whom I remembered looked out for him when he had pneumonia one summer.
very sad to hear him go. |I even more so for his daughters, whom I remembered looked out for him when he had pneumonia one summer.
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dam r.i.p |I
swish going to the indians, ibanez signed with the mariners ....
yanks are literally making no moves, guess the run is finally ending soon
hope you're all happy !!!
swish going to the indians, ibanez signed with the mariners ....
yanks are literally making no moves, guess the run is finally ending soon
hope you're all happy !!!
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crazy about Freel, man... he sucked but that guy was fun to watch.
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Swisher is good value for wrong team.
Trade fits for Kubel, Diamondbacks.
Rangers sticking with their plan.
Teams that must act.
Rumors.
Given the state of the free-agent market this winter, it's not surprising that Nick Swisher would get a four-year deal or an annual salary of $14 million, with a vesting option for a fifth season at the same rate. The surprise is that the contract came from a second-division club in Cleveland that operates with one of the game's lowest payrolls and doesn't appear to have significant hopes of playoff contention for at least two more years.
[+] Enlarge
William Perlman/US Presswire
Swisher shouldn't expect this kind of celebration in Cleveland anytime soon.Swisher's approach at the plate and ability to hit from both sides of the plate has led to strong OBPs throughout his career, and that combined with above-average power and average defense in right have made him a valuable and perhaps even underrated player, especially since he arrived in the Bronx.
His plan at the plate is to get into fastball counts, and he's very good at laying off breaking stuff outside the zone, with high strikeout totals a small price to pay for everything else he delivers at the plate. Cleveland was short an outfielder after the Shin-Soo Choo trade -- and really had two center fielders in Drew Stubbs and Michael Brantley, but no true corner guys -- so absent the contract, Swisher's addition makes plenty of sense, since he fills a hole and isn't blocking any strong prospects in the near term. In fact, Cleveland's system is strong in the middle infield and improving on the mound, but the club lacks impact corner bats everywhere on the diamond, so I could even understand an argument for overpaying a little for one in free agency.
What I don't get is the logic of a below-.500 team giving a four-year contract to a corner outfielder who is entering his age-32 season. Cleveland lost 94 games in 2012 and had the second-worst run differential in the majors; prior to the Swisher signing, its only significant move of the offseason was trading Choo for Trevor Bauer, a great deal for the long term, but hardly enough to make the team a contender in 2013 or 2014.
Swisher has held his value fairly consistently through his prime years, but corner bats don't typically age well into their mid-30s, and Swisher's passive approach, with lots of walks and strikeouts, is often a harbinger of an earlier decline. For a good team, Swisher on a three-year deal at the same annual salary of $14 million would have made sense, since he could have delivered plenty of value in the first year or two to justify the contract even if his decline started before the deal was up. For Cleveland, however, the club is staring at a situation in which it is unlikely to post a winning record before Swisher's performance slips from 3-4 wins above replacement per season to probably half that.
He may be more valuable to the team as a tradeable asset next offseason, before any decline sets in, than as a player to keep for the full four years, given the rapid inflation in free-agent salaries and the threat of a very thin free-agent pool after 2013.
[+] Enlarge
William Perlman/US Presswire
Swisher shouldn't expect this kind of celebration in Cleveland anytime soon.Swisher's approach at the plate and ability to hit from both sides of the plate has led to strong OBPs throughout his career, and that combined with above-average power and average defense in right have made him a valuable and perhaps even underrated player, especially since he arrived in the Bronx.
His plan at the plate is to get into fastball counts, and he's very good at laying off breaking stuff outside the zone, with high strikeout totals a small price to pay for everything else he delivers at the plate. Cleveland was short an outfielder after the Shin-Soo Choo trade -- and really had two center fielders in Drew Stubbs and Michael Brantley, but no true corner guys -- so absent the contract, Swisher's addition makes plenty of sense, since he fills a hole and isn't blocking any strong prospects in the near term. In fact, Cleveland's system is strong in the middle infield and improving on the mound, but the club lacks impact corner bats everywhere on the diamond, so I could even understand an argument for overpaying a little for one in free agency.
What I don't get is the logic of a below-.500 team giving a four-year contract to a corner outfielder who is entering his age-32 season. Cleveland lost 94 games in 2012 and had the second-worst run differential in the majors; prior to the Swisher signing, its only significant move of the offseason was trading Choo for Trevor Bauer, a great deal for the long term, but hardly enough to make the team a contender in 2013 or 2014.
Swisher has held his value fairly consistently through his prime years, but corner bats don't typically age well into their mid-30s, and Swisher's passive approach, with lots of walks and strikeouts, is often a harbinger of an earlier decline. For a good team, Swisher on a three-year deal at the same annual salary of $14 million would have made sense, since he could have delivered plenty of value in the first year or two to justify the contract even if his decline started before the deal was up. For Cleveland, however, the club is staring at a situation in which it is unlikely to post a winning record before Swisher's performance slips from 3-4 wins above replacement per season to probably half that.
He may be more valuable to the team as a tradeable asset next offseason, before any decline sets in, than as a player to keep for the full four years, given the rapid inflation in free-agent salaries and the threat of a very thin free-agent pool after 2013.
Trade fits for Kubel, Diamondbacks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks now have a glut of outfielders with the signing of Cody Ross, writes Nick Piecoro. The Diamondbacks' intent is to trade another outfielder, and privately, some in the organization have indicated that the most likely guy to go is Jason Kubel.
This is why this deal makes sense from Arizona's perspective: Kubel is regarded as a very subpar outfielder, while Ross is average, and a better athlete (with more speed) -- at the same price. Piecoro notes that the signing of Ross raises some questions of logic about Arizona's plan. If defense is being given a greater value by the Diamondbacks, why did Arizona trade away Chris Young -- a better defender than Ross, as well as being younger and carrying less long-term financial burden -- early in the offseason for a modest package?
It's all water under the bridge now: Arizona plows ahead with a higher payroll and more depth at the big league level, and if Kubel does turn out to be the guy the Diamondbacks trade, they could get a second-tier prospect in return for him. Kubel is owed $7.5 million for next season and has a $7.5 million option for 2014, with a $1 million buyout.
The teams for which he might be a fit (and these are listed in no particular order):
1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tampa Bay needs a DH, given the departures of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena; Kubel could take on that role. He would fit their payroll, given his relatively modest salary. He would give them left-handed power in the middle of their lineup, precisely where they need it:
CF Desmond Jennings
2B Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
DH ?
RF Matt Joyce
SS Yunel Escobar
1B James Loney
LF Brandon Guyer/Ryan Roberts
C Jose Molina
So the Rays could definitely see value in Kubel, although Tampa Bay probably would never overpay for a DH candidate -- and there are concerns about Kubel's home/road splits: Last year, Kubel's OPS was 153 points higher in Arizona, a great hitters' park, than on the road. The question is whether some other team would be willing to give up more than Tampa Bay.
2. Chicago White Sox: With A.J. Pierzynski gone, they have a dire need for left-handed hitting, and Kubel would provide that. But he would be an imperfect fit, given their roster construction; because Adam Dunn is the primary designated hitter and Paul Konerko is the first baseman, Kubel would have to play in the outfield most days in order to be in the lineup. According to fangraphs.com, Kubel was a subpar outfielder last season -- which isn't going to be a surprise to anyone who has watched him play.
In many respects, Gerardo Parra would be a better fit for the White Sox, but he would likely be much more expensive.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: They tried to sign Ichiro Suzuki and missed, and they also missed on Ross. Kubel, who mashed 30 homers last season, would represent an offensive upgrade over Philadelphia's current options, for sure. But Ruben Amaro would have to be comfortable with Kubel's outfield defense in a year in which the Phillies are probably already going to have more than their share of defensive problems.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore has been surprisingly quiet this offseason, so the Orioles have some flexibility to make a move -- and remember, Arizona GM Kevin Towers has made deals with Dan Duquette in the past. Kubel could help DH or fill in the outfield for the Orioles, whose lineup with him could look like this:
RF Nick Markakis
SS J.J. Hardy
CF Adam Jones
DH Kubel
C Matt Wieters
3B Manny Machado
1B Chris Davis
LF Nate McLouth/Nolan Reimold
2B Brian Roberts
5. Atlanta Braves: As they signed B.J. Upton, they tried to trade for Denard Span and have had conversations about Dexter Fowler; either one of those players would be a good fit for what Atlanta needs, which is a top-of-the-order hitter. But Kubel could be a decent Plan B -- if the Braves became comfortable with the idea of adding another high-strikeout guy (151 last season) to a mix that already includes Dan Uggla and Upton. And if the Braves traded for Kubel, this would greatly reduce the playing opportunities for Juan Francisco, a very powerful hitter who is having a strong showing in winter ball (.944 OPS). If Kubel were to start in left field for Atlanta against right-handed pitchers, that would mean Martin Prado would play third, and Francisco would be on the bench.
6. Texas Rangers: They need left-handed hitting, too, and they lack power in the aftermath of Josh Hamilton's departure. But Kubel is an imperfect fit for the Rangers as well, because they prefer to keep their DH spot flexible and have a lot of day-to-day candidates: Pierzynski, on the days he doesn't catch; Mitch Moreland, if Ian Kinsler is moved to first base; Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz, who seem to be constantly dealing with leg issues and could get some relief in the DH spot; David Murphy, if the Rangers prefer to play Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry in the outfield on some days.
7. New York Yankees: Sure, Kubel's swing would be perfect for Yankee Stadium, and yes, he would generate some of the power lost with the expected exit of Nick Swisher. But the Yankees' focus is on right-handed hitting right now, and they don't have much money to spend.
8. New York Mets: They certainly have room for him. But if the next two seasons are all about rebuilding for New York, what's the point in swapping assets for an older outfielder who doesn't really fit the park or the long-term plans?
Here's some more on Ross, from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats and Information:
Ross' 2012 season with Red Sox (home/road):
Slugging percentage: .565/.390
OPS: .921/.684
AB per HR: 19.1/25.3
Ross' numbers in 2011/2012:
BA: .240/.267
HR: 14/22
Slugging percentage: .405/.481
WAR: minus-0.1/1.6
Around the league
• The Boston Red Sox are closing in on a trade for Joel Hanrahan, as Gordon Edes first reported, and Mark Melancon could be in the deal.
Hanrahan's velocity readings dipped in the second half of last season, and his control slipped markedly after he hurt an ankle. Here's Hanrahan's game log from last season.
The Red Sox will have a whole lot of arms, and should be able to put together a good bullpen. Among their options: Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Craig Breslow, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara and Clayton Mortensen.
Jason Grilli will become the Pirates' closer, writes Michael Sanserino.
• The negotiations between Adam LaRoche and the Washington Nationals seem to be reaching a tipping point, and given that LaRoche doesn't have a robust market and that the Nationals have made it clear they want him back, it'd be a surprise if he signed elsewhere.
If another team were to sign LaRoche, they'd have to give up a draft pick -- and that's probably not going to happen for a 33-year-old first baseman. The Nationals want resolution on this soon and have made that clear to LaRoche. If he re-signs, as expected, then Washington's lineup will be very strong and could look something like this:
CF Denard Span
RF Jayson Werth
LF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B LaRoche
SS Ian Desmond
2B Danny Espinosa
C Kurt Suzuki/Wilson Ramos
• The Seattle Mariners signed Raul Ibanez. Seattle has a crowd of DH candidates now, with Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, Jesus Montero, Jason Bay and Justin Smoak. At the very least, it appears Smoak will have to show something in spring training; he had a very good September after struggling for most of three seasons.
This is the third go-round for Ibanez and the Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.
• The Orioles have seen their business increase after a surprising 2012.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Phillies' outfield options are dwindling.
2. The Houston Astros are not talking with Jose Lopez.
3. The Rays won't rush Wil Myers to the big leagues, writes Roger Mooney. At the very least, it makes sense for Tampa Bay to hold Myers out of the big leagues long enough to delay his free agency by a year.
4. The Yankees will be less reliant on power next season, writes Joel Sherman.
5. David Ross might be the biggest addition for the Red Sox, writes Nick Cafardo.
6. Terry Francona has been hard at work.
7. The Colorado Rockies need to add a starting pitcher or two, writes Troy Renck.
This is why this deal makes sense from Arizona's perspective: Kubel is regarded as a very subpar outfielder, while Ross is average, and a better athlete (with more speed) -- at the same price. Piecoro notes that the signing of Ross raises some questions of logic about Arizona's plan. If defense is being given a greater value by the Diamondbacks, why did Arizona trade away Chris Young -- a better defender than Ross, as well as being younger and carrying less long-term financial burden -- early in the offseason for a modest package?
It's all water under the bridge now: Arizona plows ahead with a higher payroll and more depth at the big league level, and if Kubel does turn out to be the guy the Diamondbacks trade, they could get a second-tier prospect in return for him. Kubel is owed $7.5 million for next season and has a $7.5 million option for 2014, with a $1 million buyout.
The teams for which he might be a fit (and these are listed in no particular order):
1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tampa Bay needs a DH, given the departures of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena; Kubel could take on that role. He would fit their payroll, given his relatively modest salary. He would give them left-handed power in the middle of their lineup, precisely where they need it:
CF Desmond Jennings
2B Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
DH ?
RF Matt Joyce
SS Yunel Escobar
1B James Loney
LF Brandon Guyer/Ryan Roberts
C Jose Molina
So the Rays could definitely see value in Kubel, although Tampa Bay probably would never overpay for a DH candidate -- and there are concerns about Kubel's home/road splits: Last year, Kubel's OPS was 153 points higher in Arizona, a great hitters' park, than on the road. The question is whether some other team would be willing to give up more than Tampa Bay.
2. Chicago White Sox: With A.J. Pierzynski gone, they have a dire need for left-handed hitting, and Kubel would provide that. But he would be an imperfect fit, given their roster construction; because Adam Dunn is the primary designated hitter and Paul Konerko is the first baseman, Kubel would have to play in the outfield most days in order to be in the lineup. According to fangraphs.com, Kubel was a subpar outfielder last season -- which isn't going to be a surprise to anyone who has watched him play.
In many respects, Gerardo Parra would be a better fit for the White Sox, but he would likely be much more expensive.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: They tried to sign Ichiro Suzuki and missed, and they also missed on Ross. Kubel, who mashed 30 homers last season, would represent an offensive upgrade over Philadelphia's current options, for sure. But Ruben Amaro would have to be comfortable with Kubel's outfield defense in a year in which the Phillies are probably already going to have more than their share of defensive problems.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore has been surprisingly quiet this offseason, so the Orioles have some flexibility to make a move -- and remember, Arizona GM Kevin Towers has made deals with Dan Duquette in the past. Kubel could help DH or fill in the outfield for the Orioles, whose lineup with him could look like this:
RF Nick Markakis
SS J.J. Hardy
CF Adam Jones
DH Kubel
C Matt Wieters
3B Manny Machado
1B Chris Davis
LF Nate McLouth/Nolan Reimold
2B Brian Roberts
5. Atlanta Braves: As they signed B.J. Upton, they tried to trade for Denard Span and have had conversations about Dexter Fowler; either one of those players would be a good fit for what Atlanta needs, which is a top-of-the-order hitter. But Kubel could be a decent Plan B -- if the Braves became comfortable with the idea of adding another high-strikeout guy (151 last season) to a mix that already includes Dan Uggla and Upton. And if the Braves traded for Kubel, this would greatly reduce the playing opportunities for Juan Francisco, a very powerful hitter who is having a strong showing in winter ball (.944 OPS). If Kubel were to start in left field for Atlanta against right-handed pitchers, that would mean Martin Prado would play third, and Francisco would be on the bench.
6. Texas Rangers: They need left-handed hitting, too, and they lack power in the aftermath of Josh Hamilton's departure. But Kubel is an imperfect fit for the Rangers as well, because they prefer to keep their DH spot flexible and have a lot of day-to-day candidates: Pierzynski, on the days he doesn't catch; Mitch Moreland, if Ian Kinsler is moved to first base; Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz, who seem to be constantly dealing with leg issues and could get some relief in the DH spot; David Murphy, if the Rangers prefer to play Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry in the outfield on some days.
7. New York Yankees: Sure, Kubel's swing would be perfect for Yankee Stadium, and yes, he would generate some of the power lost with the expected exit of Nick Swisher. But the Yankees' focus is on right-handed hitting right now, and they don't have much money to spend.
8. New York Mets: They certainly have room for him. But if the next two seasons are all about rebuilding for New York, what's the point in swapping assets for an older outfielder who doesn't really fit the park or the long-term plans?
Here's some more on Ross, from Justin Havens of ESPN Stats and Information:
Ross' 2012 season with Red Sox (home/road):
Slugging percentage: .565/.390
OPS: .921/.684
AB per HR: 19.1/25.3
Ross' numbers in 2011/2012:
BA: .240/.267
HR: 14/22
Slugging percentage: .405/.481
WAR: minus-0.1/1.6
Around the league
• The Boston Red Sox are closing in on a trade for Joel Hanrahan, as Gordon Edes first reported, and Mark Melancon could be in the deal.
Hanrahan's velocity readings dipped in the second half of last season, and his control slipped markedly after he hurt an ankle. Here's Hanrahan's game log from last season.
The Red Sox will have a whole lot of arms, and should be able to put together a good bullpen. Among their options: Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Craig Breslow, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara and Clayton Mortensen.
Jason Grilli will become the Pirates' closer, writes Michael Sanserino.
• The negotiations between Adam LaRoche and the Washington Nationals seem to be reaching a tipping point, and given that LaRoche doesn't have a robust market and that the Nationals have made it clear they want him back, it'd be a surprise if he signed elsewhere.
If another team were to sign LaRoche, they'd have to give up a draft pick -- and that's probably not going to happen for a 33-year-old first baseman. The Nationals want resolution on this soon and have made that clear to LaRoche. If he re-signs, as expected, then Washington's lineup will be very strong and could look something like this:
CF Denard Span
RF Jayson Werth
LF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B LaRoche
SS Ian Desmond
2B Danny Espinosa
C Kurt Suzuki/Wilson Ramos
• The Seattle Mariners signed Raul Ibanez. Seattle has a crowd of DH candidates now, with Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, Jesus Montero, Jason Bay and Justin Smoak. At the very least, it appears Smoak will have to show something in spring training; he had a very good September after struggling for most of three seasons.
This is the third go-round for Ibanez and the Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.
• The Orioles have seen their business increase after a surprising 2012.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Phillies' outfield options are dwindling.
2. The Houston Astros are not talking with Jose Lopez.
3. The Rays won't rush Wil Myers to the big leagues, writes Roger Mooney. At the very least, it makes sense for Tampa Bay to hold Myers out of the big leagues long enough to delay his free agency by a year.
4. The Yankees will be less reliant on power next season, writes Joel Sherman.
5. David Ross might be the biggest addition for the Red Sox, writes Nick Cafardo.
6. Terry Francona has been hard at work.
7. The Colorado Rockies need to add a starting pitcher or two, writes Troy Renck.
Rangers sticking with their plan.
The wrong reaction for the Texas Rangers would be an overreaction, a course correction that takes them off a trajectory that has carried them through two World Series appearances in the last three years.
Yes, it's been a rough offseason for the Rangers: They missed on Zack Greinke and James Shields, and Josh Hamilton signed with a division rival, and unless the Diamondbacks reassess their demands for Justin Upton, they're not going to get the right fielder, either. No matter what the Rangers do between now and the start of the 2013 season, it appears Texas won't have as a good a team as it did in May, when the Rangers looked like a juggernaut.
But they should still have a good team because they have a lot of pitching -- Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and others. Texas' ballpark tends to be a place that creates offensive stars, the same way that Oakland's park tends to foster excellent pitching. No matter how the Rangers decide to round out their lineup, they'll score enough runs to contend.
Michael Bourn is still available in free agency, and so are Nick Swisher and Adam LaRoche, and any of them would provide an upgrade. But each of those three players are tied to draft-pick compensation, and the Rangers, like a lot of other teams, are reluctant to give up their pick -- and, as old friend Peter Gammons has noted, the draft-pool money that would be attached to that top pick.
There's probably a price at which Bourn would work for the Rangers, but it's likely far less, and for far fewer years, than what the All-Star center fielder would be looking for. B.J. Upton got $75.25 million from Bourn's old team, the Braves, and Bourn would want at least that -- and that would seem to be well out of the Rangers' price range. Some of the teams that use extensive statistical analysis (and the Rangers could fall into that category) are concerned about whether Bourn, who turns 30 on Thursday, would hold his value over the course of a long-term deal, because he's not a big on-base percentage guy (.348 in 2012) and much of his game is predicated on speed.
Texas' plan was to go after Greinke and wait to see what developed with Hamilton, and the fact that the Rangers missed out on both doesn't change their level of interest in the other free agents still on the board -- unless they can sign someone like a Bourn or a Swisher on their terms.
Otherwise, Texas will make small-bore moves, like signing A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year deal; the Rangers will rely on their own internal options and use platoons in a few spots in their lineup.
The Rangers' significant resources in prospects and money are still available. Maybe the Rangers will make their move before the July 31 trade deadline, or maybe they'll contend without a major move -- and still be in position to be one of the teams with a legitimate shot at David Price when the Rays trade the left-hander; rival executives view that as inevitable because of Tampa Bay's financial limitations.
The Rangers are not going to alter their long-term plan.
The Rangers are biding their time.
Notables
• The Nationals want an answer from LaRoche, writes Adam Kilgore. From his piece:
If talks with LaRoche continue to drag out, potential trade partners with interest in Morse will continue to dry up. Here's one example. The Nationals had discussed a deal for Morse with the Mariners, according to a person familiar with the talks. But on Wednesday the Mariners traded for slugging first baseman Kendrys Morales, seemingly eliminating their need for Morse.
Whether the Nationals had LaRoche or Morse at first base would also trickle down to more trivial decisions, such as the type of minor league free agents the Nationals would pursue.
The apparent suitors for LaRoche have been dwindling at a surprising rate, likely pushed away by having to give away a first-round pick in order to sign him. The Rangers did not make a strong push for LaRoche, and their agreement yesterday with catcher A.J. Pierzynski satisfies their need for a left-handed bat.
• Jeremy Bonderman is giving it another shot, as Geoff Baker writes.
• Francisco Liriano signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Liriano tends to bounce his slider in the dirt, and the king of that practice is A.J. Burnett -- and they're now both in the same rotation. Catcher Russell Martin might want to stockpile some ice packs.
• The fact that the Orioles haven't made big moves means that Dan Duquette is following a plan, writes Peter Schmuck.
The Orioles made a mysterious roster move.
• Sandy Rosario is one of the kings of the waiver wire this winter.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Andrew Keh wonders: Is there anybody out there for the Mets?
2. The Yankees approved a new personal trainer for Alex Rodriguez.
3. The Mariners are eager to sign Raul Ibanez, writes George King.
The Yankees would like Ibanez back, but their overriding priority right now is to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder; if they can do that and Ibanez is still available, then they could work out a deal with him.
4. Boston is looking at Joel Hanrahan, but the Red Sox roster is just about set.
5. The Tigers got a player back.
6. The Reds did all their shopping early this year.
7. The Indians signed Scott Kazmir. His velocity is said to be higher in winter ball this year, and remember, he always seemed to pitched well against Terry Francona's teams in Boston.
8. Tom Gorzelanny, signed to pitch out of the Milwaukee bullpen, is glad to have the Brewers' lineup on his side.
9. The Twins are giving Rich Harden a chance.
10. The Athletics are seeking a new five-year lease.
Yes, it's been a rough offseason for the Rangers: They missed on Zack Greinke and James Shields, and Josh Hamilton signed with a division rival, and unless the Diamondbacks reassess their demands for Justin Upton, they're not going to get the right fielder, either. No matter what the Rangers do between now and the start of the 2013 season, it appears Texas won't have as a good a team as it did in May, when the Rangers looked like a juggernaut.
But they should still have a good team because they have a lot of pitching -- Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and others. Texas' ballpark tends to be a place that creates offensive stars, the same way that Oakland's park tends to foster excellent pitching. No matter how the Rangers decide to round out their lineup, they'll score enough runs to contend.
Michael Bourn is still available in free agency, and so are Nick Swisher and Adam LaRoche, and any of them would provide an upgrade. But each of those three players are tied to draft-pick compensation, and the Rangers, like a lot of other teams, are reluctant to give up their pick -- and, as old friend Peter Gammons has noted, the draft-pool money that would be attached to that top pick.
There's probably a price at which Bourn would work for the Rangers, but it's likely far less, and for far fewer years, than what the All-Star center fielder would be looking for. B.J. Upton got $75.25 million from Bourn's old team, the Braves, and Bourn would want at least that -- and that would seem to be well out of the Rangers' price range. Some of the teams that use extensive statistical analysis (and the Rangers could fall into that category) are concerned about whether Bourn, who turns 30 on Thursday, would hold his value over the course of a long-term deal, because he's not a big on-base percentage guy (.348 in 2012) and much of his game is predicated on speed.
Texas' plan was to go after Greinke and wait to see what developed with Hamilton, and the fact that the Rangers missed out on both doesn't change their level of interest in the other free agents still on the board -- unless they can sign someone like a Bourn or a Swisher on their terms.
Otherwise, Texas will make small-bore moves, like signing A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year deal; the Rangers will rely on their own internal options and use platoons in a few spots in their lineup.
The Rangers' significant resources in prospects and money are still available. Maybe the Rangers will make their move before the July 31 trade deadline, or maybe they'll contend without a major move -- and still be in position to be one of the teams with a legitimate shot at David Price when the Rays trade the left-hander; rival executives view that as inevitable because of Tampa Bay's financial limitations.
The Rangers are not going to alter their long-term plan.
The Rangers are biding their time.
Notables
• The Nationals want an answer from LaRoche, writes Adam Kilgore. From his piece:
If talks with LaRoche continue to drag out, potential trade partners with interest in Morse will continue to dry up. Here's one example. The Nationals had discussed a deal for Morse with the Mariners, according to a person familiar with the talks. But on Wednesday the Mariners traded for slugging first baseman Kendrys Morales, seemingly eliminating their need for Morse.
Whether the Nationals had LaRoche or Morse at first base would also trickle down to more trivial decisions, such as the type of minor league free agents the Nationals would pursue.
The apparent suitors for LaRoche have been dwindling at a surprising rate, likely pushed away by having to give away a first-round pick in order to sign him. The Rangers did not make a strong push for LaRoche, and their agreement yesterday with catcher A.J. Pierzynski satisfies their need for a left-handed bat.
• Jeremy Bonderman is giving it another shot, as Geoff Baker writes.
• Francisco Liriano signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Liriano tends to bounce his slider in the dirt, and the king of that practice is A.J. Burnett -- and they're now both in the same rotation. Catcher Russell Martin might want to stockpile some ice packs.
• The fact that the Orioles haven't made big moves means that Dan Duquette is following a plan, writes Peter Schmuck.
The Orioles made a mysterious roster move.
• Sandy Rosario is one of the kings of the waiver wire this winter.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Andrew Keh wonders: Is there anybody out there for the Mets?
2. The Yankees approved a new personal trainer for Alex Rodriguez.
3. The Mariners are eager to sign Raul Ibanez, writes George King.
The Yankees would like Ibanez back, but their overriding priority right now is to add a right-handed-hitting outfielder; if they can do that and Ibanez is still available, then they could work out a deal with him.
4. Boston is looking at Joel Hanrahan, but the Red Sox roster is just about set.
5. The Tigers got a player back.
6. The Reds did all their shopping early this year.
7. The Indians signed Scott Kazmir. His velocity is said to be higher in winter ball this year, and remember, he always seemed to pitched well against Terry Francona's teams in Boston.
8. Tom Gorzelanny, signed to pitch out of the Milwaukee bullpen, is glad to have the Brewers' lineup on his side.
9. The Twins are giving Rich Harden a chance.
10. The Athletics are seeking a new five-year lease.
Teams that must act.
With only 50 days remaining until the first February report dates -- and 100 until Opening Day -- most teams have already crossed off the majority of the items on their winter to-do lists, and only a handful of the top 20 free agents are still looking for work. But while many of baseball's best clubs have stayed busy bringing in new players or bringing back old ones, a few of the teams that made (or came close to making) the playoffs last season have been quiet. Here's a look at four teams with more tumbleweeds than transactions this winter, and what they can do to salvage their offseason:
Baltimore Orioles
Biggest move they've made: Re-signing Nate McClouth to a one-year contract
Why they haven't been busier: The Orioles went from last place to the playoffs without making many major moves last winter, and they didn't stop tinkering after Opening Day. Unlike the New York Yankees, who've spent much of the winter trying to keep or replace free agents, the O's entered the offseason with most of their important players under team control for 2013. However, they will have to pony up for arbitration raises, which restricts their financial flexibility.
Will they wish they'd done more? The Orioles' run differential -- which was barely in the black -- didn't prevent them from making the playoffs last season, but the odds aren't good that they'll be able to replicate their 29-9 regular-season record in one-run games. Baltimore can hope for better health and better production from its young players, but with the Orioles' division rivals all active since October, the team runs a real risk of falling prey to the Plexiglas Principle and losing ground to the teams it leapfrogged last season.
What might they still do? Last winter, GM Dan Duquette waited until January to sign Wei-Yin Chen and until February to trade for Jason Hammel, so it wouldn't be surprising if he took the patient approach again. This year, Joe Saunders is the most likely late entry to the rotation. It's a long shot, but the O's also have been linked to Adam LaRoche, who would fit in nicely at first base with Mark Reynolds off the roster.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas Rangers
Biggest move they've made: Signing A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year contract
Why they haven't done more: The Rangers have been linked to almost every major free agent on both sides of the ball, but they were outbid by the Los Angeles Dodgers for Zack Greinke and have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to the other players in whom they've expressed interest. Before inking Pierzynski -- who PECOTA projects to decline steeply in his age-36 season -- they hadn't sealed the deal with anyone but backup catcher Geovany Soto and former Royals closer Joakim Soria, who missed the 2012 season to Tommy John surgery.
Will they wish they'd done more? The Rangers weren't wrong to draw the line for Josh Hamilton at four years, but they can't have been happy to see him end up elsewhere in the AL West. Texas still has plenty of productive players, but it has lost a lot of power and will find it tough to return to 90 wins with its current collection of talent. Barring a big surprise move, the Angels look like the team to beat, but they might regret some of their spending in the long run.
What might they still do? The Rangers will miss Mike Adams and Koji Uehara, but they probably will add another arm or two to their bullpen, with Joel Hanrahan and J.P. Howell reportedly possible fits. It's not out of the question that Texas could land one of the few remaining high-profile free agents, but its interest in Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, LaRoche, Kyle Lohse and Rafael Soriano -- all of whom require draft-pick compensation -- has been lukewarm at best.
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St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest move they've made: Signed Randy Choate to a three-year contract
Why they haven't done more: The Cardinals simply haven't had many holes to fill. The 2012 team had just three free agents: Lohse, Lance Berkman and Brian Fuentes (who retired). Choate replaced Fuentes; Ty Wigginton replaced traded Skip Schumaker; and Allen Craig's performance last season made Berkman expendable. Even without Lohse, St. Louis has a full rotation's worth of veteran starters, with Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal and Shelby Miller waiting in the wings. The Cards had a better run differential than the first-place Reds last season, so they might also be hoping they'll benefit from better luck in 2013.
Will they wish they'd done more? St. Louis will face stiff competition from Cincinnati, but if the Cardinals finish second in the Central again, it won't be because they wasted their winter. The Cardinals' inactivity is a sign of their strength: Even with few new faces, they would look like a potential playoff team if the season started today.
What might they still do? The Cards are still in the market for some middle-infield help, but if Rafael Furcal's elbow is truly intact, they won't need to make a move until Furcal hits free agency next winter. It's unlikely that St. Louis will make any significant acquisitions between now and the start of the season, although it will spend spring training trying to extend Adam Wainwright, whose current contract expires at the end of next year.
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Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest move they've made: Signed Tom Gorzelanny to a two-year contract
Why they haven't done more: Despite reports early this offseason that tied Hamilton to Milwaukee, the Brewers were always unlikely to be a big player for prominent free agents. Saddled with the smallest market in baseball, the Brewers reportedly lost money when a franchise-record payroll failed to produce a playoff team or increased attendance last season. Owner Mark Attanasio has reportedly lowered the ceiling to $80 million for 2013, leaving Milwaukee without the cash to compete on the open market. The Brewers were outbid by the Red Sox for Ryan Dempster, and the team isn't interested in going to three years for any free-agent starter.
Will they wish they'd done more? If wishes were free agents, GM Doug Melvin would've made a move more exciting than signing a southpaw swingman. It's not that the Brewers didn't want to do more, it's that their budget wasn't big enough.
What might they still do? The Brewers' 4.66 relief ERA was the highest in baseball last season; a better bullpen might have made their September surge much more interesting. Fortunately for them, bullpens can get good as quickly as they go bad, and, historically, teams with bullpens as bad as the 2012 Brewers' have improved significantly in the next season.
The additions of Gorzelanny and Burke Badenhop should help, but Milwaukee is still looking for arms, with Melvin naming Jon Rauch, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Gonzalez and Jason Frasor as potential targets. The Brewers might bring back free agent Alex Gonzalez to back up shortstop Jean Segura if Gonzalez can't secure a starting somewhere else.
Baltimore Orioles
Biggest move they've made: Re-signing Nate McClouth to a one-year contract
Why they haven't been busier: The Orioles went from last place to the playoffs without making many major moves last winter, and they didn't stop tinkering after Opening Day. Unlike the New York Yankees, who've spent much of the winter trying to keep or replace free agents, the O's entered the offseason with most of their important players under team control for 2013. However, they will have to pony up for arbitration raises, which restricts their financial flexibility.
Will they wish they'd done more? The Orioles' run differential -- which was barely in the black -- didn't prevent them from making the playoffs last season, but the odds aren't good that they'll be able to replicate their 29-9 regular-season record in one-run games. Baltimore can hope for better health and better production from its young players, but with the Orioles' division rivals all active since October, the team runs a real risk of falling prey to the Plexiglas Principle and losing ground to the teams it leapfrogged last season.
What might they still do? Last winter, GM Dan Duquette waited until January to sign Wei-Yin Chen and until February to trade for Jason Hammel, so it wouldn't be surprising if he took the patient approach again. This year, Joe Saunders is the most likely late entry to the rotation. It's a long shot, but the O's also have been linked to Adam LaRoche, who would fit in nicely at first base with Mark Reynolds off the roster.
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Texas Rangers
Biggest move they've made: Signing A.J. Pierzynski to a one-year contract
Why they haven't done more: The Rangers have been linked to almost every major free agent on both sides of the ball, but they were outbid by the Los Angeles Dodgers for Zack Greinke and have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to the other players in whom they've expressed interest. Before inking Pierzynski -- who PECOTA projects to decline steeply in his age-36 season -- they hadn't sealed the deal with anyone but backup catcher Geovany Soto and former Royals closer Joakim Soria, who missed the 2012 season to Tommy John surgery.
Will they wish they'd done more? The Rangers weren't wrong to draw the line for Josh Hamilton at four years, but they can't have been happy to see him end up elsewhere in the AL West. Texas still has plenty of productive players, but it has lost a lot of power and will find it tough to return to 90 wins with its current collection of talent. Barring a big surprise move, the Angels look like the team to beat, but they might regret some of their spending in the long run.
What might they still do? The Rangers will miss Mike Adams and Koji Uehara, but they probably will add another arm or two to their bullpen, with Joel Hanrahan and J.P. Howell reportedly possible fits. It's not out of the question that Texas could land one of the few remaining high-profile free agents, but its interest in Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, LaRoche, Kyle Lohse and Rafael Soriano -- all of whom require draft-pick compensation -- has been lukewarm at best.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest move they've made: Signed Randy Choate to a three-year contract
Why they haven't done more: The Cardinals simply haven't had many holes to fill. The 2012 team had just three free agents: Lohse, Lance Berkman and Brian Fuentes (who retired). Choate replaced Fuentes; Ty Wigginton replaced traded Skip Schumaker; and Allen Craig's performance last season made Berkman expendable. Even without Lohse, St. Louis has a full rotation's worth of veteran starters, with Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal and Shelby Miller waiting in the wings. The Cards had a better run differential than the first-place Reds last season, so they might also be hoping they'll benefit from better luck in 2013.
Will they wish they'd done more? St. Louis will face stiff competition from Cincinnati, but if the Cardinals finish second in the Central again, it won't be because they wasted their winter. The Cardinals' inactivity is a sign of their strength: Even with few new faces, they would look like a potential playoff team if the season started today.
What might they still do? The Cards are still in the market for some middle-infield help, but if Rafael Furcal's elbow is truly intact, they won't need to make a move until Furcal hits free agency next winter. It's unlikely that St. Louis will make any significant acquisitions between now and the start of the season, although it will spend spring training trying to extend Adam Wainwright, whose current contract expires at the end of next year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest move they've made: Signed Tom Gorzelanny to a two-year contract
Why they haven't done more: Despite reports early this offseason that tied Hamilton to Milwaukee, the Brewers were always unlikely to be a big player for prominent free agents. Saddled with the smallest market in baseball, the Brewers reportedly lost money when a franchise-record payroll failed to produce a playoff team or increased attendance last season. Owner Mark Attanasio has reportedly lowered the ceiling to $80 million for 2013, leaving Milwaukee without the cash to compete on the open market. The Brewers were outbid by the Red Sox for Ryan Dempster, and the team isn't interested in going to three years for any free-agent starter.
Will they wish they'd done more? If wishes were free agents, GM Doug Melvin would've made a move more exciting than signing a southpaw swingman. It's not that the Brewers didn't want to do more, it's that their budget wasn't big enough.
What might they still do? The Brewers' 4.66 relief ERA was the highest in baseball last season; a better bullpen might have made their September surge much more interesting. Fortunately for them, bullpens can get good as quickly as they go bad, and, historically, teams with bullpens as bad as the 2012 Brewers' have improved significantly in the next season.
The additions of Gorzelanny and Burke Badenhop should help, but Milwaukee is still looking for arms, with Melvin naming Jon Rauch, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Gonzalez and Jason Frasor as potential targets. The Brewers might bring back free agent Alex Gonzalez to back up shortstop Jean Segura if Gonzalez can't secure a starting somewhere else.
Rumors.
Rangers sticking to plan
8:57
AM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments16EmailWhen the offseason started, the Texas Rangers were expected to be hot on the trail of a frontline starting pitcher or two, while also considering offensive alternatives to Josh Hamilton, who has signed with the rival Angels.
Right-hander Zack Greinke was the prize of the pitching market, and he's inked a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. James Shields was a backup plan, but he's now been traded to Kansas City, and R.A. Dickey was traded to the Blue Jays instead. Then there's Justin Upton, who may have been the Rangers' best alternative to Hamilton, but it appears less likely he'll be traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks. So... now what?
Michael Bourn remains a free agent, and he could fill the void Hamilton left in centerfield while also serving as a dynamic leadoff hitter for what is still a strong lineup, one that now includes catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who signed last week.
Adam LaRoche, a first baseman, is another possibility, especially since his lefty bat could help replace Hamilton's. The Nationals seem intent on keeping their offer to LaRoche at two years, but if the Rangers offered three years guaranteed, they may be able to swoop in and steal him.
The key factor in all of the team's decisions so far this offseason is that GM Jon Daniels and Co. have made it a point that they will make moves on their terms -- not based on what a player or agent or someone else thinks.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney believes that even after all of the missed opportunities this offseason, the Rangers are sticking to their guns by avoiding an overreaction (i.e., a mistake signing). And as Olney points out, good things sometimes come to those who wait:
- Jason A. Churchill
Buster Olney
Rangers playing the waiting game
"The Rangers' significant resources in prospects and money are still available. Maybe the Rangers will make their move before the July 31 trade deadline, or maybe they'll contend without a major move -- and still be in position to be one of the teams with a legitimate shot at David Price when the Rays trade the left-hander; rival executives view that as inevitable because of Tampa Bay's financial limitations."
Tags:Michael Bourn, Texas Rangers, James Shields, R.A. Dickey, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, A.J. Pierzynski
December 23, 2012Saunders' suitors
12:20
PM ETJoe Saunders | Orioles Recommend0Comments0Email
Just because he doesn't own a Cy Young Award like Zack Greinke or throw as hard as Edwin Jackson doesn't mean Joe Saunders isn't a sought-after commodity this winter.
The veteran lefty has been drawing interest from the San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates, according to FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.
The Baltimore Orioles, with whom Saunders finished up 2012, are also in the mix. The Pirates, though, may no longer be after inking Francisco Liriano last week.
The New York Mets are also considering Saunders for a rotation spot, per Newsday's Mac Carig.
The veteran, who is still just 31 years old, doesn't have great stuff and shouldn't be counted on as anything more than a back-end-of-the-rotation arm, but he is reliable, having made at least 28 starts each of the past five seasons while posting a respectable 4.04 ERA in just under 1,000 innings during that time.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney thinks Saunders could wind up back in Baltimore:
- Jason Catania
Buster Olney
Saunders enjoyed Baltimore
"I spoke with Saunders the day after he shut down the Yankees in Game 4 of the playoffs -- he also started and won the one-game wild-card game against Texas -- and he talked about how much he liked pitching for the Orioles, and how he was very open to coming back. And there has been a lot of sentiment within the Orioles' organization to re-sign Saunders, a Virginia native. Now that other starting pitchers have come off the board, the market for him is becoming more defined, with four teams involved, and the Orioles have stepped up in their efforts to keep him. It seems Saunders would be in position to get more than the two-year, $15 million deal signed by Joe Blanton."
Tagsittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Joe Saunders
December 23, 2012Hairston looking for starting job?
11:56
AM ETScott Hairston | Mets Recommend0Comments1EmailEarlier this month, free agent outfielder Scott Hairston told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that a return to the New York Mets was "probable,"
And yet, three weeks have passed and nothing has transpired, especially since Hairston remains adamant about getting a two-year deal. Viewed as an excellent role player and pinch-hitter, Hairston is looking for a larger role, which could mean he's targeting clubs that have at least one open or unsettled outfield spot.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that the Phillies and Braves could be possibilities that fit such criteria.
The Bronx has been floated as a possible destination, but George King of the New York Post reports that a two-year deal would not come from the Yankees, who already have three starting outfielders in place, which probably makes them less attractive from Hairston's point of view.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, though, thinks Hairston is just what the Yankees need:
- Jason Catania
Buster Olney
Hairston would help Yanks
"The Yankees are desperate for right-handed hitting and there could be no better second-tier fit than Hairston, who does damage against left-handed pitching; last season, he posted a .550 slugging average against lefties. For his career, he's got a .500 slugging percentage against lefties. He'd be a perfect complement to the very left-handed Yankees' outfield (Ichiro Suzuki, Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson), and serve time at DH."
Tags:Scott Hairston, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves
December 23, 2012Is Porcello as good as gone?
11:51
AM ETRick Porcello | Tigers Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Detroit Tigers are believed to have had conversations with a number of clubs regarding right-hander Rick Porcello, according to reports. With a few moves last week, however, the Tigers' potential trade partners may have been altered.
The Angels picked up Jason Vargas from Seattle, and the Cubs signed both Carlos Villanueva and Edwin Jackson -- so both clubs could be out on Porcello now.
The Mariners may be in play, as could the Pirates, Rockies and Padres, all of whom have been mentioned as possible fits. Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com noted that the Orioles have been in contact with Detroit, too, although the Baltimore Sun's Eduardo Encina doesn't necessarily see a match involving a Porcello-for-J.J. Hardy possibility.
The Tigers still have a need in their bullpen, particularly at the back end, so if Porcello is going to be traded, it would make sense for GM Dave Dombrowski to target a high-leverage reliever who could close, in case Bruce Rondon -- a rookie with shaky control and no experience in the majors -- isn't able to handle the role.
- Jason A. Churchill and Jason Catania
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, J.J. Hardy, Detroit Tigers, Rick Porcello
December 23, 2012How Swisher helps Indians
11:32
AM ETNick Swisher | Yankees Recommend0Comments4EmailEarlier this week, our own Buster Olney tweeted that the Cleveland Indians were stepping up their efforts to try and land free agent Nick Swisher, and on Saturday, Jim Bowden of The GM's Office, followed up with a tweet of his own, stating that Swisher was giving "serious consideration" to the Indians reported four-year offer.
Then on Sunday, news came that Swisher agreed to sign with Cleveland. The deal is reported to be for $56 million over four years with a vesting option for 2017 worth $14 million.
Swisher essentially replaces the traded Shin-Soo Choo in right field, as both players are similar high-OBP types with power, and Swisher's ability to switch hit will help a lineup that skews lefty, whereas Choo struggled against southpaws. Plus, Swisher can also help fill in at first base, where Mark Reynolds is likely to see the majority of starts.
This move also means that two-thirds of the Indians outfield will be different, with Swisher in right, recently-acquired Drew Stubbs handling centerfield and Michael Brantley, the lone incumbent, in left.
One other consideration: The Indians, who have the fifth overall pick in next June's draft, will forfeit their second-round selection because Swisher was given -- and turned down -- a qualifying offer from his former club, the Yankees, who now pick up a compensation pick at the end of the first round.
It's believed that Swisher chose the Indians over the Red Sox, Rangers and Mariners, so those three clubs are likely to continue to look for outfield help.
- Jason Catania
Tags
rew Stubbs, Texas Rangers, Nick Swisher, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Seattle Mariners
December 23, 2012Ultimatum for LaRoche?
11:12
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments1EmailAdam LaRoche is still dangling on the open market, and while he's indicated that he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, he's also sticking to his target of landing a three-year deal.
The Nats, though, don't seem inclined to up their two-year offer -- one that's been on the table for a while now -- and in fact, it's possible that GM Mike Rizzo could give LaRoche an ultimatum of sorts, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Under that scenario, the Nats, who were hoping to have this situation resolved by the end of the year, could basically tell LaRoche that if he doesn't agree to their terms, they will plan to move on without him by shifting Michael Morse to first base. Essentially, the club has more leverage than the player in this case, or at least, that's how it's being presented.
It's not as if LaRoche has zero leverage, though, as the Baltimore Orioles are legitimately interested in him -- and may be willing to give him the three-year contract he covets.
The Texas Rangers also could have some interest in LaRoche, but the club has approached Ian Kinsler about possibly playing first base in 2013 -- with top prospect Jurickson Profar manning second base -- which eliminates the need for LaRoche.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Michael Morse, Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles
December 23, 2012M's working on offense
10:26
AM ETSeattle Mariners Recommend0Comments2EmailFor the most part, it's been a disappointing offseason for the Seattle Mariners, as they lost out on Josh Hamilton and had been unable to make any significant addition to the league's worst offense. But in the past few days, the club has begun addressing that problem.
On Wednesday, the M's traded left-hander Jason Vargas to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Kendrys Morales, who is likely to share time at DH and first base with Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.
Then on Saturday, news broke that Seattle had reached an agreement with free agent outfielder/DH Raul Ibanez on a one-year, $2.75 million deal.
Given that the M's are now overloaded with DH-type hitters in Morales, Montero and Ibanez, it's possible that catcher/DH John Jaso could be a trade chip. While he's not a good defensive catcher, he can at least handle 40-60 starts behind the dish and is coming off a season in which he slashed .276/.394/.456. Given the state of the catcher market, that sort of production would make Jaso a sought-after backup backstop.
The Mariners still have a ways to go to improve their offense, and word is they are turning over every rock in an effort to field a competitive team next year. They have money to spend, and for the right return -- more than two years' worth of control of a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat -- they also have prospects to trade.
One such name the club has been linked to of late is Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to a report by FOXSports.com.
- Jason A. Churchill and Jason Catania
Tags:Andre Ethier, John Jaso, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, Seattle Mariners
December 23, 2012The ninth in Pittsburgh
10:04
AM ETPittsburgh Pirates Recommend0Comments0EmailIf the reported trade between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox is carried out, there will be a new closer in the Steel City.
Joel Hanrahan, who has been an All-Star each of the past two seasons, is heading to Boston, which opens up the ninth inning. The top candidate for the job would appear to be reliever Jason Grilli, who re-signed with the Pirates a few weeks ago. At 36, Grilli is a bit on the older side to become a first-time closer, but he's had a late-career epiphany of sorts, posting a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP -- with a whopping 12.5 K/9 rate -- over 91.1 innings (92 games) the past two season in Pittsburgh.
The move also saves the Pirates some money, as Hanrahan is eligible for his third and final round of arbitration this winter and is expected to see his salary bump from last season's $4.1 million into the $7 million range. It's possible that last week's signing of Francisco Liriano for $14 million over two years all but booked Hanrahan's ticket out of town.
If Grilli doesn't pan out as closer, another option could be Mark Melancon, who reportedly could be part of the deal and heading to the Pirates. While he struggled mightily to start last season, Melancon did have success closing for the Houston Astros in 2011.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Jason Grilli, Joel Hanrahan, Mark Melancon, Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox
December 23, 2012Hanrahan's role in Boston
9:47
AM ETJoel Hanrahan | Pirates Recommend0Comments3EmailThe Boston Red Sox had been chasing after Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan last week, and the club reportedly has its man, per ESPN Insider Jim Bowden.
The deal has not been officially completed, but reports have indicated that Hanrahan and perhaps another player would be heading to Boston, while the Pirates would get four players on their end, including outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands and pitching prospect Stolmy Pimentel.
Once everything is finalized, Hanrahan would become the Red Sox's closer. Andrew Bailey, who was acquired this time last year to be the team's ninth-inning solution, has become so injury-prone that it's tricky to rely on him. It is possible, though, that Bailey could become trade bait, as he's been extremely effective -- when healthy -- and a team in need of a quality bullpen arm with the upside of a stopper, like the Detroit Tigers or New York Mets, could come calling while the asking price is down.
While likely a coincidence, it is worth pointing out that since taking over a little more than a year ago, Boston GM Ben Cherington has now made three separate moves to acquire a ninth-inning option. The first was trading shortstop Jed Lowrie (with pitcher Kyle Weiland) for Mark Melancon, and the second was getting Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney for the price of outfielder Josh Reddick (and prospects Miles Head and Raul Alcantara). Red Sox fans have to be hoping the third time's the charm.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Jerry Sands, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan
December 22, 2012Impact of Ross to D-backs
12:53
PM ETCody Ross | Diamondbacks Recommend0Comments1EmailUPDATE: It appears that Ross has found a new home. The veteran outfielder has agreed to a three-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
This seems like a bit of a surprise move on the surface, as Arizona already has plenty of outfielders, even after trading away Chris Young earlier in the offseason. It's possible, however, that one of them could be moved in a trade now that Ross is on board.
As for which ones are most likely trade candidates now, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney speculates that it could be Jason Kubel, whose lefty power bat could be a good fit with the Texas Rangers (or perhaps the New York Yankees). And ESPN Insider Jim Bowden suggests that if Kubel isn't on the block, we could finally see Justin Upton moved. (Seems like we've written that last part a few times before, huh?)
...
Cody Ross has been chased by the Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies. Now the Texas Rangers, with whom he met last week, are in on the outfielder.
A capable corner outfield defender, Ross is generally pedestrian versus right-handed pitching and did not hit much away from Fenway in 2012 -- .294 OBP, .390 SLG. -- so he could be seen as anything from a full-time starter to a platoon candidate who sees most of his action against lefties.
With the Rangers, Ross may be best suited as a platoon bat, perhaps sharing time with David Murphy, a lefty hitter who has been consistently above-average versus right-handers throughout his career.
Ross has other options, however, and may choose one of them over Texas rather than limiting himself to starting fewer games. The Phillies, Red Sox or Mariners could be willing to give him a regular starting job.
The Cleveland Indians, who have been linked most to Nick Swisher, also could be a fit for Ross, and he'd likely get full-time duty there.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Texas Rangers, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Justin Upton, Jason Kubel
December 22, 2012Cubs could get crafty
12:06
PM ETEdwin Jackson | Nationals Recommend0Comments4EmailAfter inking Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal this week, the Chicago Cubs gave themselves some trade leverage going forward.
Jackson deepens the Cubs rotation enough that the club could look to trade another starter, especially since Chicago also signed Carlos Villanueva this week.
If the season started today the Cubs' rotation would consist of Jackson, Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Scott Baker, with Villanueva likely used as a swing man and Scott Feldman as yet another option.
The Cubs' next move could be unloading Alfonso Soriano or adding to the outfield or bullpen, but ESPN Insider's Keith Law suggests that one pitcher, in particular, could be a trade chip in the coming months:
- Jason Catania
Keith Law
Garza a trade candidate
"Matt Garza likely would be an ex-Cub by now if he'd finished the 2012 season healthy, and he could move as early as spring training if he looks like his old self. If Scott Baker or Scott Feldman throw well in the first half of 2013, they would be ideal trade bait before the July 31 deadline, which is the best argument for signing them in the first place -- but now doing so won't leave the team with a skeleton crew rotation behind Jeff Samardzija in the final two months of the season."
Tags:Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Baker, Edwin Jackson, Carlos Villanueva, Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
December 22, 2012Tulo, Cargo as trade bait
11:25
AM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments10EmailTypically, when a team has two building block players like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, the club hangs onto them, especially when those players are signed to long-term deals, like Tulo and Cargo are. But is it crazy to think that one of both of the Colorado Rockies stars could be traded?
As ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are two great players stuck in a bad situation in Denver, where the Rockies have gone just 137-187 over the past two seasons, including 98 losses last year.
The biggest problem for Colorado has been the rotation, as the club is having trouble developing young, impact arms via the draft and international signings, and obviously the top free agent pitchers don't view hitter's haven Coors Field as a plumb destination. So if the Rockies were to explore dealing one or both of Tulo and Cargo, the return would have to include multiple starting pitchers or a few top pitching prospects, among other things.
As Bowden suggests, the Cardinals could match up well in a trade for Gonzalez, who seems more likely to be traded than Tulowitzki, given his more palatable contract. (Tulo is signed through 2020 at nearly $160 million, and as good as he is, that would make him tough to move, as would his injury history.) Gonzalez could then team with St. Louis' top hitting prospect Oscar Taveras in the middle of the lineup for years, and St. Louis could put any number of pitchers on the table, including Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal or Joe Kelly, all of whom are big league ready and under team control.
Another team that has young pitching to spare and is constantly searching for more offense? The Seattle Mariners, who sport one of the deepest and most talented batches of pitching prospects in baseball, including Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Brandon Maurer.
Just some food for thought.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly
December 22, 2012Cabrera's trade value
10:22
AM ETCleveland Indians Recommend0Comments2EmailSeveral Cleveland Indians have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason, and it was expected that a few of the bigger names could be dealt. After moving outfielder Shin-Soo Choo recently, however, the Tribe might decide to hang onto shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, closer Chris Perez, and others, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
The Indians do not appear to be done making moves, though, as they have been mentioned as a prominent suitor for free agent Nick Swisher.
The Indians could still choose to trade Cabrera or Perez, or perhaps even right-hander Justin Masterson, if the club gets the kind of offers it is looking for in return, which likely includes more pitching and outfield help. After the Choo trade, the club still lacks starting-caliber options in left and right field and may be in the market for more help at either corner infield, depending on how they plan on using new acquisition Mark Reynolds.
Jim Bowden of The GM's Office, suggests that Cabrera, in particular, could be interesting for the Cardinals, Dodgers and Yankees, and he likes what the Indians have done so far this offseason, especially the return for trading Choo:
- Jason Catania
Jim Bowden
Bauer a great get
"The Indians' main goal this offseason was to improve their starting rotation with a long-term answer. For most of the offseason, they felt the only way to accomplish this would have been to trade two-time All-Star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, who is arguably their best player, and Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was interested. When Towers told the Indians he had shifted gears and eyed a younger shortstop like the Reds' Didi Gregorius, it led to a deal that sent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati and brought Bauer to Cleveland. The Reds had attempted to acquire Choo last season, and Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti revisited that interest to get the deal with Arizona done and add the power-hitting Stubbs to boot."
Tags:Trevor Bauer, Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians, Mark Reynolds, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera
December 22, 2012The Bourn Ranger?
10:14
AM ETMichael Bourn | Braves Recommend0Comments24EmailIt's one week until Christmas, and Michael Bourn remains the odd man out in the free agent outfield sweepstakes.
Agent Scott Boras, who is often at his best when the market appears to be eroding, faces another challenge with Bourn, who was believed to be in line for a deal in the five-year, $75 million range at the start of the offseason.
With Josh Hamilton officially headed to the Los Angeles Angels, the Texas Rangers remain a viable option, given that the club has some extra cash available and a need for a lefty bat in a predominantly right-handed lineup. CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman writes that Texas has started looking into Bourn.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that some baseball people believe the Yankees are quietly interested and "will pounce if the price comes down." The Yankees could use a leadoff hitter, but have been reluctant to pull the trigger on a major deal as they aim to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $189 million for 2014 -- which means few, if any, multi-year deals for free agents.
Furthermore, Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com reports that the Yankees do not currently have interest in Bourn, for various reasons. Among those reasons, Matthews lists, is the club's left-handed heavy outfield of Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweets Friday that Bourn's market includes Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Texas, Philadelphia and the Mets.
Maybe Boras gets Bourn a one-year deal as he did with Stephen Drew, which would mean the Gold Glove defender heads back into free agency next winter.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Michael Bourn
December 22, 2012Soriano comes with steep price
10:01
AM ETRafael Soriano | Yankees Recommend0Comments4EmailRafael Soriano opted out of the final year of his deal with the New York Yankees in order to secure a multi-year contract with another contender. It's nearly Christmas and the right-hander is still looking for the right fit.
Early in the offseason it appeared that perhaps the Dodgers, Reds, Rangers or Angels were possibilities, but each of those clubs has spent money on their bullpen and do not appear to be in the market to commit two or three years and $10-12 million per season, or more, to sign a reliever who just turned 33.
Soriano's position in the market may improve once the Pirates trade Joel Hanrahan, whom the Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox have reportedly targeted.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweeted that the Toronto Blue Jays are a sleeper team to watch, as they could team up Soriano with Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos in the late innings.
If the Red Sox do not acquire Hanrahan, Soriano could become a legitimate target for them.
- Jason A. Churchill
FanGraphs
Why Soriano's market hasn't developed
"The Yankees saddled [Soriano] with a qualifying offer, upping the cost of acquiring him. (A team that signs a player who received a qualifying offer must forfeit a first-round pick, except for the teams with the top 10 picks, which are protected. They would forfeit a second-round pick instead.) ... It would be throwing caution to the wind to surrender a first-round pick for a relief pitcher -- any relief pitcher -- but you also could make the case that it would be unwise for teams to cough up a second-round pick for a reliever. That, in conjunction with the fact that there are very few teams who need a closer may affect the money for which Soriano signs." - Paul Swydan
Tagsetroit Tigers, Rafael Soriano, Joel Hanrahan, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox
December 22, 2012Catching market full of backups
9:42
AM ETMarket for catchers Recommend0Comments21EmailThe Catchers Market
Mike Napoli | Red Sox: three years, $39 million (pending agreement)A.J. Pierzynski | Rangers: one year, $7.5 millionRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionGeovany Soto| Rangers: one year, $2.75 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderYorvit TorrealbaBrian SchneiderRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorJesus FloresJ.R. Tow*****bby Wilson | Yankees: minor league contractThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class has been no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars, and now that Pierzynski has signed with the Rangers, the remaining free agent catchers are limited to part-time options and depth.
The Yankees appear set on starting the season with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Austin Romine, though it's conceivable they could take a flier on another veteran even after bringing in Wilson.
Now that the Blue Jays have traded prospect Travis d'Arnaud and veteran John Buck to the Mets -- after they'd acquired him earlier in the offseason from the Marlins in a deal that also sent catcher Jeff Mathis to Miami -- it's likely that Toronto's done dealing backstops and will stick with J.P. Arencibia and Josh Thole.
The Red Sox could make a move from a surplus of catchers once their signing of Napoli, which is being held up by an issue with one of his hips discovered during his physical, becomes official. At that point, Boston would have Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway and Napoli, who is expected to handle first base duties, all capable of playing catcher.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals, at best, or minor league contracts with invites to spring training.
- Jason A. Churchill
8:57
AM ETTexas Rangers Recommend0Comments16EmailWhen the offseason started, the Texas Rangers were expected to be hot on the trail of a frontline starting pitcher or two, while also considering offensive alternatives to Josh Hamilton, who has signed with the rival Angels.
Right-hander Zack Greinke was the prize of the pitching market, and he's inked a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. James Shields was a backup plan, but he's now been traded to Kansas City, and R.A. Dickey was traded to the Blue Jays instead. Then there's Justin Upton, who may have been the Rangers' best alternative to Hamilton, but it appears less likely he'll be traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks. So... now what?
Michael Bourn remains a free agent, and he could fill the void Hamilton left in centerfield while also serving as a dynamic leadoff hitter for what is still a strong lineup, one that now includes catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who signed last week.
Adam LaRoche, a first baseman, is another possibility, especially since his lefty bat could help replace Hamilton's. The Nationals seem intent on keeping their offer to LaRoche at two years, but if the Rangers offered three years guaranteed, they may be able to swoop in and steal him.
The key factor in all of the team's decisions so far this offseason is that GM Jon Daniels and Co. have made it a point that they will make moves on their terms -- not based on what a player or agent or someone else thinks.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney believes that even after all of the missed opportunities this offseason, the Rangers are sticking to their guns by avoiding an overreaction (i.e., a mistake signing). And as Olney points out, good things sometimes come to those who wait:
- Jason A. Churchill
Buster Olney
Rangers playing the waiting game
"The Rangers' significant resources in prospects and money are still available. Maybe the Rangers will make their move before the July 31 trade deadline, or maybe they'll contend without a major move -- and still be in position to be one of the teams with a legitimate shot at David Price when the Rays trade the left-hander; rival executives view that as inevitable because of Tampa Bay's financial limitations."
Tags:Michael Bourn, Texas Rangers, James Shields, R.A. Dickey, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, A.J. Pierzynski
December 23, 2012Saunders' suitors
12:20
PM ETJoe Saunders | Orioles Recommend0Comments0Email
Just because he doesn't own a Cy Young Award like Zack Greinke or throw as hard as Edwin Jackson doesn't mean Joe Saunders isn't a sought-after commodity this winter.
The veteran lefty has been drawing interest from the San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates, according to FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.
The Baltimore Orioles, with whom Saunders finished up 2012, are also in the mix. The Pirates, though, may no longer be after inking Francisco Liriano last week.
The New York Mets are also considering Saunders for a rotation spot, per Newsday's Mac Carig.
The veteran, who is still just 31 years old, doesn't have great stuff and shouldn't be counted on as anything more than a back-end-of-the-rotation arm, but he is reliable, having made at least 28 starts each of the past five seasons while posting a respectable 4.04 ERA in just under 1,000 innings during that time.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney thinks Saunders could wind up back in Baltimore:
- Jason Catania
Buster Olney
Saunders enjoyed Baltimore
"I spoke with Saunders the day after he shut down the Yankees in Game 4 of the playoffs -- he also started and won the one-game wild-card game against Texas -- and he talked about how much he liked pitching for the Orioles, and how he was very open to coming back. And there has been a lot of sentiment within the Orioles' organization to re-sign Saunders, a Virginia native. Now that other starting pitchers have come off the board, the market for him is becoming more defined, with four teams involved, and the Orioles have stepped up in their efforts to keep him. It seems Saunders would be in position to get more than the two-year, $15 million deal signed by Joe Blanton."
Tags
ittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Joe SaundersDecember 23, 2012Hairston looking for starting job?
11:56
AM ETScott Hairston | Mets Recommend0Comments1EmailEarlier this month, free agent outfielder Scott Hairston told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that a return to the New York Mets was "probable,"
And yet, three weeks have passed and nothing has transpired, especially since Hairston remains adamant about getting a two-year deal. Viewed as an excellent role player and pinch-hitter, Hairston is looking for a larger role, which could mean he's targeting clubs that have at least one open or unsettled outfield spot.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that the Phillies and Braves could be possibilities that fit such criteria.
The Bronx has been floated as a possible destination, but George King of the New York Post reports that a two-year deal would not come from the Yankees, who already have three starting outfielders in place, which probably makes them less attractive from Hairston's point of view.
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, though, thinks Hairston is just what the Yankees need:
- Jason Catania
Buster Olney
Hairston would help Yanks
"The Yankees are desperate for right-handed hitting and there could be no better second-tier fit than Hairston, who does damage against left-handed pitching; last season, he posted a .550 slugging average against lefties. For his career, he's got a .500 slugging percentage against lefties. He'd be a perfect complement to the very left-handed Yankees' outfield (Ichiro Suzuki, Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson), and serve time at DH."
Tags:Scott Hairston, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves
December 23, 2012Is Porcello as good as gone?
11:51
AM ETRick Porcello | Tigers Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Detroit Tigers are believed to have had conversations with a number of clubs regarding right-hander Rick Porcello, according to reports. With a few moves last week, however, the Tigers' potential trade partners may have been altered.
The Angels picked up Jason Vargas from Seattle, and the Cubs signed both Carlos Villanueva and Edwin Jackson -- so both clubs could be out on Porcello now.
The Mariners may be in play, as could the Pirates, Rockies and Padres, all of whom have been mentioned as possible fits. Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com noted that the Orioles have been in contact with Detroit, too, although the Baltimore Sun's Eduardo Encina doesn't necessarily see a match involving a Porcello-for-J.J. Hardy possibility.
The Tigers still have a need in their bullpen, particularly at the back end, so if Porcello is going to be traded, it would make sense for GM Dave Dombrowski to target a high-leverage reliever who could close, in case Bruce Rondon -- a rookie with shaky control and no experience in the majors -- isn't able to handle the role.
- Jason A. Churchill and Jason Catania
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, J.J. Hardy, Detroit Tigers, Rick Porcello
December 23, 2012How Swisher helps Indians
11:32
AM ETNick Swisher | Yankees Recommend0Comments4EmailEarlier this week, our own Buster Olney tweeted that the Cleveland Indians were stepping up their efforts to try and land free agent Nick Swisher, and on Saturday, Jim Bowden of The GM's Office, followed up with a tweet of his own, stating that Swisher was giving "serious consideration" to the Indians reported four-year offer.
Then on Sunday, news came that Swisher agreed to sign with Cleveland. The deal is reported to be for $56 million over four years with a vesting option for 2017 worth $14 million.
Swisher essentially replaces the traded Shin-Soo Choo in right field, as both players are similar high-OBP types with power, and Swisher's ability to switch hit will help a lineup that skews lefty, whereas Choo struggled against southpaws. Plus, Swisher can also help fill in at first base, where Mark Reynolds is likely to see the majority of starts.
This move also means that two-thirds of the Indians outfield will be different, with Swisher in right, recently-acquired Drew Stubbs handling centerfield and Michael Brantley, the lone incumbent, in left.
One other consideration: The Indians, who have the fifth overall pick in next June's draft, will forfeit their second-round selection because Swisher was given -- and turned down -- a qualifying offer from his former club, the Yankees, who now pick up a compensation pick at the end of the first round.
It's believed that Swisher chose the Indians over the Red Sox, Rangers and Mariners, so those three clubs are likely to continue to look for outfield help.
- Jason Catania
Tags
rew Stubbs, Texas Rangers, Nick Swisher, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Seattle MarinersDecember 23, 2012Ultimatum for LaRoche?
11:12
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments1EmailAdam LaRoche is still dangling on the open market, and while he's indicated that he prefers to remain in Washington with the Nationals, he's also sticking to his target of landing a three-year deal.
The Nats, though, don't seem inclined to up their two-year offer -- one that's been on the table for a while now -- and in fact, it's possible that GM Mike Rizzo could give LaRoche an ultimatum of sorts, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Under that scenario, the Nats, who were hoping to have this situation resolved by the end of the year, could basically tell LaRoche that if he doesn't agree to their terms, they will plan to move on without him by shifting Michael Morse to first base. Essentially, the club has more leverage than the player in this case, or at least, that's how it's being presented.
It's not as if LaRoche has zero leverage, though, as the Baltimore Orioles are legitimately interested in him -- and may be willing to give him the three-year contract he covets.
The Texas Rangers also could have some interest in LaRoche, but the club has approached Ian Kinsler about possibly playing first base in 2013 -- with top prospect Jurickson Profar manning second base -- which eliminates the need for LaRoche.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Michael Morse, Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles
December 23, 2012M's working on offense
10:26
AM ETSeattle Mariners Recommend0Comments2EmailFor the most part, it's been a disappointing offseason for the Seattle Mariners, as they lost out on Josh Hamilton and had been unable to make any significant addition to the league's worst offense. But in the past few days, the club has begun addressing that problem.
On Wednesday, the M's traded left-hander Jason Vargas to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Kendrys Morales, who is likely to share time at DH and first base with Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero.
Then on Saturday, news broke that Seattle had reached an agreement with free agent outfielder/DH Raul Ibanez on a one-year, $2.75 million deal.
Given that the M's are now overloaded with DH-type hitters in Morales, Montero and Ibanez, it's possible that catcher/DH John Jaso could be a trade chip. While he's not a good defensive catcher, he can at least handle 40-60 starts behind the dish and is coming off a season in which he slashed .276/.394/.456. Given the state of the catcher market, that sort of production would make Jaso a sought-after backup backstop.
The Mariners still have a ways to go to improve their offense, and word is they are turning over every rock in an effort to field a competitive team next year. They have money to spend, and for the right return -- more than two years' worth of control of a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat -- they also have prospects to trade.
One such name the club has been linked to of late is Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to a report by FOXSports.com.
- Jason A. Churchill and Jason Catania
Tags:Andre Ethier, John Jaso, Raul Ibanez, Kendrys Morales, Seattle Mariners
December 23, 2012The ninth in Pittsburgh
10:04
AM ETPittsburgh Pirates Recommend0Comments0EmailIf the reported trade between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox is carried out, there will be a new closer in the Steel City.
Joel Hanrahan, who has been an All-Star each of the past two seasons, is heading to Boston, which opens up the ninth inning. The top candidate for the job would appear to be reliever Jason Grilli, who re-signed with the Pirates a few weeks ago. At 36, Grilli is a bit on the older side to become a first-time closer, but he's had a late-career epiphany of sorts, posting a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP -- with a whopping 12.5 K/9 rate -- over 91.1 innings (92 games) the past two season in Pittsburgh.
The move also saves the Pirates some money, as Hanrahan is eligible for his third and final round of arbitration this winter and is expected to see his salary bump from last season's $4.1 million into the $7 million range. It's possible that last week's signing of Francisco Liriano for $14 million over two years all but booked Hanrahan's ticket out of town.
If Grilli doesn't pan out as closer, another option could be Mark Melancon, who reportedly could be part of the deal and heading to the Pirates. While he struggled mightily to start last season, Melancon did have success closing for the Houston Astros in 2011.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Jason Grilli, Joel Hanrahan, Mark Melancon, Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox
December 23, 2012Hanrahan's role in Boston
9:47
AM ETJoel Hanrahan | Pirates Recommend0Comments3EmailThe Boston Red Sox had been chasing after Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan last week, and the club reportedly has its man, per ESPN Insider Jim Bowden.
The deal has not been officially completed, but reports have indicated that Hanrahan and perhaps another player would be heading to Boston, while the Pirates would get four players on their end, including outfielder/first baseman Jerry Sands and pitching prospect Stolmy Pimentel.
Once everything is finalized, Hanrahan would become the Red Sox's closer. Andrew Bailey, who was acquired this time last year to be the team's ninth-inning solution, has become so injury-prone that it's tricky to rely on him. It is possible, though, that Bailey could become trade bait, as he's been extremely effective -- when healthy -- and a team in need of a quality bullpen arm with the upside of a stopper, like the Detroit Tigers or New York Mets, could come calling while the asking price is down.
While likely a coincidence, it is worth pointing out that since taking over a little more than a year ago, Boston GM Ben Cherington has now made three separate moves to acquire a ninth-inning option. The first was trading shortstop Jed Lowrie (with pitcher Kyle Weiland) for Mark Melancon, and the second was getting Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney for the price of outfielder Josh Reddick (and prospects Miles Head and Raul Alcantara). Red Sox fans have to be hoping the third time's the charm.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Jerry Sands, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan
December 22, 2012Impact of Ross to D-backs
12:53
PM ETCody Ross | Diamondbacks Recommend0Comments1EmailUPDATE: It appears that Ross has found a new home. The veteran outfielder has agreed to a three-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
This seems like a bit of a surprise move on the surface, as Arizona already has plenty of outfielders, even after trading away Chris Young earlier in the offseason. It's possible, however, that one of them could be moved in a trade now that Ross is on board.
As for which ones are most likely trade candidates now, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney speculates that it could be Jason Kubel, whose lefty power bat could be a good fit with the Texas Rangers (or perhaps the New York Yankees). And ESPN Insider Jim Bowden suggests that if Kubel isn't on the block, we could finally see Justin Upton moved. (Seems like we've written that last part a few times before, huh?)
...
Cody Ross has been chased by the Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies. Now the Texas Rangers, with whom he met last week, are in on the outfielder.
A capable corner outfield defender, Ross is generally pedestrian versus right-handed pitching and did not hit much away from Fenway in 2012 -- .294 OBP, .390 SLG. -- so he could be seen as anything from a full-time starter to a platoon candidate who sees most of his action against lefties.
With the Rangers, Ross may be best suited as a platoon bat, perhaps sharing time with David Murphy, a lefty hitter who has been consistently above-average versus right-handers throughout his career.
Ross has other options, however, and may choose one of them over Texas rather than limiting himself to starting fewer games. The Phillies, Red Sox or Mariners could be willing to give him a regular starting job.
The Cleveland Indians, who have been linked most to Nick Swisher, also could be a fit for Ross, and he'd likely get full-time duty there.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Texas Rangers, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Justin Upton, Jason Kubel
December 22, 2012Cubs could get crafty
12:06
PM ETEdwin Jackson | Nationals Recommend0Comments4EmailAfter inking Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal this week, the Chicago Cubs gave themselves some trade leverage going forward.
Jackson deepens the Cubs rotation enough that the club could look to trade another starter, especially since Chicago also signed Carlos Villanueva this week.
If the season started today the Cubs' rotation would consist of Jackson, Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood and Scott Baker, with Villanueva likely used as a swing man and Scott Feldman as yet another option.
The Cubs' next move could be unloading Alfonso Soriano or adding to the outfield or bullpen, but ESPN Insider's Keith Law suggests that one pitcher, in particular, could be a trade chip in the coming months:
- Jason Catania
Keith Law
Garza a trade candidate
"Matt Garza likely would be an ex-Cub by now if he'd finished the 2012 season healthy, and he could move as early as spring training if he looks like his old self. If Scott Baker or Scott Feldman throw well in the first half of 2013, they would be ideal trade bait before the July 31 deadline, which is the best argument for signing them in the first place -- but now doing so won't leave the team with a skeleton crew rotation behind Jeff Samardzija in the final two months of the season."
Tags:Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Baker, Edwin Jackson, Carlos Villanueva, Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
December 22, 2012Tulo, Cargo as trade bait
11:25
AM ETColorado Rockies Recommend0Comments10EmailTypically, when a team has two building block players like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, the club hangs onto them, especially when those players are signed to long-term deals, like Tulo and Cargo are. But is it crazy to think that one of both of the Colorado Rockies stars could be traded?
As ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes, Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are two great players stuck in a bad situation in Denver, where the Rockies have gone just 137-187 over the past two seasons, including 98 losses last year.
The biggest problem for Colorado has been the rotation, as the club is having trouble developing young, impact arms via the draft and international signings, and obviously the top free agent pitchers don't view hitter's haven Coors Field as a plumb destination. So if the Rockies were to explore dealing one or both of Tulo and Cargo, the return would have to include multiple starting pitchers or a few top pitching prospects, among other things.
As Bowden suggests, the Cardinals could match up well in a trade for Gonzalez, who seems more likely to be traded than Tulowitzki, given his more palatable contract. (Tulo is signed through 2020 at nearly $160 million, and as good as he is, that would make him tough to move, as would his injury history.) Gonzalez could then team with St. Louis' top hitting prospect Oscar Taveras in the middle of the lineup for years, and St. Louis could put any number of pitchers on the table, including Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal or Joe Kelly, all of whom are big league ready and under team control.
Another team that has young pitching to spare and is constantly searching for more offense? The Seattle Mariners, who sport one of the deepest and most talented batches of pitching prospects in baseball, including Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Brandon Maurer.
Just some food for thought.
- Jason Catania
Tags:Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly
December 22, 2012Cabrera's trade value
10:22
AM ETCleveland Indians Recommend0Comments2EmailSeveral Cleveland Indians have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason, and it was expected that a few of the bigger names could be dealt. After moving outfielder Shin-Soo Choo recently, however, the Tribe might decide to hang onto shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, closer Chris Perez, and others, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
The Indians do not appear to be done making moves, though, as they have been mentioned as a prominent suitor for free agent Nick Swisher.
The Indians could still choose to trade Cabrera or Perez, or perhaps even right-hander Justin Masterson, if the club gets the kind of offers it is looking for in return, which likely includes more pitching and outfield help. After the Choo trade, the club still lacks starting-caliber options in left and right field and may be in the market for more help at either corner infield, depending on how they plan on using new acquisition Mark Reynolds.
Jim Bowden of The GM's Office, suggests that Cabrera, in particular, could be interesting for the Cardinals, Dodgers and Yankees, and he likes what the Indians have done so far this offseason, especially the return for trading Choo:
- Jason Catania
Jim Bowden
Bauer a great get
"The Indians' main goal this offseason was to improve their starting rotation with a long-term answer. For most of the offseason, they felt the only way to accomplish this would have been to trade two-time All-Star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, who is arguably their best player, and Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was interested. When Towers told the Indians he had shifted gears and eyed a younger shortstop like the Reds' Didi Gregorius, it led to a deal that sent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati and brought Bauer to Cleveland. The Reds had attempted to acquire Choo last season, and Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti revisited that interest to get the deal with Arizona done and add the power-hitting Stubbs to boot."
Tags:Trevor Bauer, Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians, Mark Reynolds, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera
December 22, 2012The Bourn Ranger?
10:14
AM ETMichael Bourn | Braves Recommend0Comments24EmailIt's one week until Christmas, and Michael Bourn remains the odd man out in the free agent outfield sweepstakes.
Agent Scott Boras, who is often at his best when the market appears to be eroding, faces another challenge with Bourn, who was believed to be in line for a deal in the five-year, $75 million range at the start of the offseason.
With Josh Hamilton officially headed to the Los Angeles Angels, the Texas Rangers remain a viable option, given that the club has some extra cash available and a need for a lefty bat in a predominantly right-handed lineup. CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman writes that Texas has started looking into Bourn.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that some baseball people believe the Yankees are quietly interested and "will pounce if the price comes down." The Yankees could use a leadoff hitter, but have been reluctant to pull the trigger on a major deal as they aim to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $189 million for 2014 -- which means few, if any, multi-year deals for free agents.
Furthermore, Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com reports that the Yankees do not currently have interest in Bourn, for various reasons. Among those reasons, Matthews lists, is the club's left-handed heavy outfield of Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweets Friday that Bourn's market includes Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Texas, Philadelphia and the Mets.
Maybe Boras gets Bourn a one-year deal as he did with Stephen Drew, which would mean the Gold Glove defender heads back into free agency next winter.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
Tags:New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Michael Bourn
December 22, 2012Soriano comes with steep price
10:01
AM ETRafael Soriano | Yankees Recommend0Comments4EmailRafael Soriano opted out of the final year of his deal with the New York Yankees in order to secure a multi-year contract with another contender. It's nearly Christmas and the right-hander is still looking for the right fit.
Early in the offseason it appeared that perhaps the Dodgers, Reds, Rangers or Angels were possibilities, but each of those clubs has spent money on their bullpen and do not appear to be in the market to commit two or three years and $10-12 million per season, or more, to sign a reliever who just turned 33.
Soriano's position in the market may improve once the Pirates trade Joel Hanrahan, whom the Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox have reportedly targeted.
ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden tweeted that the Toronto Blue Jays are a sleeper team to watch, as they could team up Soriano with Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos in the late innings.
If the Red Sox do not acquire Hanrahan, Soriano could become a legitimate target for them.
- Jason A. Churchill
FanGraphs
Why Soriano's market hasn't developed
"The Yankees saddled [Soriano] with a qualifying offer, upping the cost of acquiring him. (A team that signs a player who received a qualifying offer must forfeit a first-round pick, except for the teams with the top 10 picks, which are protected. They would forfeit a second-round pick instead.) ... It would be throwing caution to the wind to surrender a first-round pick for a relief pitcher -- any relief pitcher -- but you also could make the case that it would be unwise for teams to cough up a second-round pick for a reliever. That, in conjunction with the fact that there are very few teams who need a closer may affect the money for which Soriano signs." - Paul Swydan
Tags
etroit Tigers, Rafael Soriano, Joel Hanrahan, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red SoxDecember 22, 2012Catching market full of backups
9:42
AM ETMarket for catchers Recommend0Comments21EmailThe Catchers Market
Mike Napoli | Red Sox: three years, $39 million (pending agreement)A.J. Pierzynski | Rangers: one year, $7.5 millionRussell Martin | Pirates: two years, $17 millionDavid Ross | Red Sox: two years, $6.2 millionGeovany Soto| Rangers: one year, $2.75 millionKelly ShoppachMiguel OlivoRod BarajasGerald Laird | Braves: two years, $3 millionChris SnyderYorvit TorrealbaBrian SchneiderRonny PaulinoHenry BlancoKoyie HillWil NievesHumberto Quintero | Phillies: minor league contractMatt TreanorJesus FloresJ.R. Tow*****bby Wilson | Yankees: minor league contractThe free agent market for catchers is never deep and rarely offers a star, and this year's class has been no different. The list at right is full of backups and organizational depth, with just a few potential regulars, and now that Pierzynski has signed with the Rangers, the remaining free agent catchers are limited to part-time options and depth.
The Yankees appear set on starting the season with Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and prospect Austin Romine, though it's conceivable they could take a flier on another veteran even after bringing in Wilson.
Now that the Blue Jays have traded prospect Travis d'Arnaud and veteran John Buck to the Mets -- after they'd acquired him earlier in the offseason from the Marlins in a deal that also sent catcher Jeff Mathis to Miami -- it's likely that Toronto's done dealing backstops and will stick with J.P. Arencibia and Josh Thole.
The Red Sox could make a move from a surplus of catchers once their signing of Napoli, which is being held up by an issue with one of his hips discovered during his physical, becomes official. At that point, Boston would have Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Ross, Ryan Lavarnway and Napoli, who is expected to handle first base duties, all capable of playing catcher.
Many other clubs have openings for their backup job, and the majority of the free agents are likely to receive one-year deals, at best, or minor league contracts with invites to spring training.
- Jason A. Churchill
do work son
Banned
- 17,118
- 5,186
- Joined
- May 22, 2010
damn man, ryan freel was actually one of the players i really liked. always played out of his mind in the field. played multiple positions i think too
- 21,784
- 2,957
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
dam r.i.p |I
swish going to the indians, ibanez signed with the mariners ....
yanks are literally making no moves, guess the run is finally ending soon
hope you're all happy !!!
Lol at the mildly serious indignation.
Rest well, Freel.
Mike Olt And Prospect Golden Rules.
Rangers Nab A.J. Pierzynski.
Francisco Liriano and the Slow Death of ERA.
Value and Perception in the Corner OF Market.
Kendrys Morales and Partial Uselessness.
Did Michael Bourn & Scott Boras Wait Too Long?
Cubs Sign Edwin Jackson
Adjusting to Josh Hamilton.
A Golden rule of developing prospects is, “Never move a player off a more valuable defensive position until he proves incapable of playing there at the Major League Level.” This leaves the Texas Rangers in an enviable, but difficult position as they have a 10 win left-side of the infield and both the best third base and shortstop prospects in baseball.
Jurickson Profar is untouchable, but Mike Olt has been discussed in a number of trade rumors. first, he was rumored to the Braves for shortstop Andrelton Simmons. More recently, Olt’s name was thrown as a key piece in a package for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. This leaves me questioning if the Rangers are working to sell high on the former UConn Husky.
In April, I arrived in Surprise, Arizona at the Rangers minor league complex and stumbled upon a Double-A batting practice session including Olt. While I was impressed by a muscular physique primed for power, the ball did not explode off his barrel like other top power prospects I’ve seen.
Later in the day, a couple of Olt at-bats left him looking lost against Major League pitching. Concerned about a first impression gleaned from the smallest of sample sizes, I began to ask contacts who had seen Olt what they thought. As a third base prospect, Olt was universally praised for a well-rounded skill set buoyed by a plus defensive profile. An “above average regular” was used frequently to describe Olt with offensive projections in the .270 batting average, 25 home run range.
Since then, I’ve perceived a disconnect between the prospect and scouting communities regarding Olt. His .288/.398/.579 line in Double-A has landed him in the prospect pantheon at a time when his own organization has been shopping him around.
From a scouting perspective, Olt has to remain at third base to maintain maximum value. Move him to left field or first base, and his defensive value is negated — Especially in the outfield. This explains Texas’ hesitation to name him the “first baseman of the future”. By doing so, the Rangers devalue their own asset which is never good for business.
For this reason, Olt to New York never made sense as David Wright‘s new contract will allow him to retire a Met.
Between 1999 and 2009, teammate Adrian Beltre accumulated 43.2 wins above replacement behind plus defense at third and slightly above average offensive production. This ranked him 21st amongst all position players in WAR.
Had Beltre been a first baseman during that period, his lack of offense might have led to his being bumped from the starting lineup altogether. Beltre’s wRC+ of 105 would have tied for 29th amongst all first baseman with 3000 plate appearances or more. Remember journeyman Tony Clark? He posted a wRC+ of 105 too.
Olt is similar to the player Beltre was a decade ago in terms triple slash projection and defensive value. And with his propensity for striking out, Olt might produce less offensively. When Mike Moustakas is worth 3.5 wins behind a 90 wRC+ and plus defense, it’s conceivable to rank Olt as a top-12 third baseman entering 2013.
Unfortunately for him, Beltre is currently producing at hall of fame levels. Shift Olt to another position and his risk for exposure is too high. For the Rangers, shopping him at maximum value is the smart move.
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Jurickson Profar is untouchable, but Mike Olt has been discussed in a number of trade rumors. first, he was rumored to the Braves for shortstop Andrelton Simmons. More recently, Olt’s name was thrown as a key piece in a package for Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. This leaves me questioning if the Rangers are working to sell high on the former UConn Husky.
In April, I arrived in Surprise, Arizona at the Rangers minor league complex and stumbled upon a Double-A batting practice session including Olt. While I was impressed by a muscular physique primed for power, the ball did not explode off his barrel like other top power prospects I’ve seen.
Later in the day, a couple of Olt at-bats left him looking lost against Major League pitching. Concerned about a first impression gleaned from the smallest of sample sizes, I began to ask contacts who had seen Olt what they thought. As a third base prospect, Olt was universally praised for a well-rounded skill set buoyed by a plus defensive profile. An “above average regular” was used frequently to describe Olt with offensive projections in the .270 batting average, 25 home run range.
Since then, I’ve perceived a disconnect between the prospect and scouting communities regarding Olt. His .288/.398/.579 line in Double-A has landed him in the prospect pantheon at a time when his own organization has been shopping him around.
From a scouting perspective, Olt has to remain at third base to maintain maximum value. Move him to left field or first base, and his defensive value is negated — Especially in the outfield. This explains Texas’ hesitation to name him the “first baseman of the future”. By doing so, the Rangers devalue their own asset which is never good for business.
For this reason, Olt to New York never made sense as David Wright‘s new contract will allow him to retire a Met.
Between 1999 and 2009, teammate Adrian Beltre accumulated 43.2 wins above replacement behind plus defense at third and slightly above average offensive production. This ranked him 21st amongst all position players in WAR.
Had Beltre been a first baseman during that period, his lack of offense might have led to his being bumped from the starting lineup altogether. Beltre’s wRC+ of 105 would have tied for 29th amongst all first baseman with 3000 plate appearances or more. Remember journeyman Tony Clark? He posted a wRC+ of 105 too.
Olt is similar to the player Beltre was a decade ago in terms triple slash projection and defensive value. And with his propensity for striking out, Olt might produce less offensively. When Mike Moustakas is worth 3.5 wins behind a 90 wRC+ and plus defense, it’s conceivable to rank Olt as a top-12 third baseman entering 2013.
Unfortunately for him, Beltre is currently producing at hall of fame levels. Shift Olt to another position and his risk for exposure is too high. For the Rangers, shopping him at maximum value is the smart move.
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Rangers Nab A.J. Pierzynski.
To date, it hasn’t been the offseason that the Texas Rangers wanted it to be. There’s still plenty of time, and the team still has plenty of talent, but the Rangers have been looking to make a move of significance. Later Thursday, they were able to make one, locking up free-agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski. And more, while Pierzynski is coming off arguably the best season of his entire big-league career, the Rangers got him for one year and $7.5 million. While Pierzynski doesn’t make the Rangers into something they weren’t by himself, he fills a need with so little risk the Rangers could hardly afford not to sign him.
With Geovany Soto and Eli Whiteside, the Rangers already had catchers, but they didn’t have good catchers, or left-handed-hitting catchers with a fair amount of power. While it’s presently unclear exactly how Pierzynski and Soto will split time, Pierzynski has exceeded 500 plate appearances in every season but one since 2003. In that one, he reached 497. Pierzynski has proven that he can handle an awful lot of work, and Soto just batted .198.
This Pierzynski contract isn’t one to flip out about, by any means. Pierzynski is an aging, unspectacular player coming off a late-career year and coming out of a hitter-friendly ballpark. A $7.5-million salary isn’t something you find in the sofa unless you’re somewhere in or near Dodger Stadium. But the Rangers filled a need and didn’t have to go beyond 2013 to do it. For reference, the FanGraphs crowd predicted that Pierzynski would sign for two years and $18 million. The crowd has thus far been eerily accurate, and Pierzynski signed for a lesser commitment than almost everyone expected.
There are, of course, concerns, and all of them are legitimate. Pierzynski didn’t sign a multi-year deal, and there are reasons for that. In a few days, Pierzynski will officially turn 36, and that’s pretty old for a regular backstop. You expect that a player at this point will be in his decline phase, and you expect that the next season will be worse than the previous season. Seldom do players maintain strong performances as they approach 40.
There are questions about Pierzynski’s defense. This is reportedly the reason the Yankees stayed away, even though Pierzynski’s swing is a perfect fit for the ballpark. Looking at the pitch-framing numbers, Pierzynski is neither good nor bad, but he’s below-average at blocking pitches, he’s below-average at throwing runners out, and he’s had confrontations with his pitchers about game-calling. You don’t acquire A.J. Pierzynski as an alternative to Jose Molina.
Pierzynski is also known for his fiery, irritating personality, and he’s sort of the baseball equivalent of a hockey agitator. In the heat of competition, plenty of players can’t stand him, and away from the heat of competition, plenty of players still can’t stand him. Pierzynski was recently voted baseball’s most hated player, and so you can’t predict how he’ll fit into a new clubhouse. He could potentially be disruptive, or worse.
And then there’s the matter of Pierzynski going from 13 home runs to nine home runs to eight home runs to 27 home runs. Pierzynski, in 2012, beat his previous career-high for dingers by 50%, and there’s every reason to be skeptical of such a late-career spike. His 118 wRC+ was his first above-average wRC+ since 2003, and you just can’t expect that sort of performance to repeat, at Pierzynski’s age.
All of these are valid. No one’s going to tell you that Pierzynski is guaranteed to be a good player and a good teammate in 2013. He could be unpopular, and he could be unsuccessful, and then the Rangers would have a mess on their hands. But it would be a minor mess, because Pierzynski isn’t costing a fortune and he’s only got the one-year commitment. There’s so little risk with a one-year deal like this, and consider what Pierzynski just did.
At 35, Pierzynski set career highs in home runs and wRC+. One can’t just pretend that didn’t happen, and one can’t just erase that from his performance history. You expect that players at Pierzynski’s age will get worse, but Pierzynski just performed a lot better and that has to be factored into any future projection. Specific data points are probably more meaningful than general principles.
Pierzynski’s defense isn’t a strength, but that’s only a part of the whole picture. Michael Young‘s defense wasn’t a strength, but the Rangers still loved him. And as for Pierzynski’s personality, that could realistically go either way, and there’s no way to predict it. Odds are, Pierzynski is one of those guys you hate to play against but love to play with, and it’s not reasonable to think that Pierzynski might bring down the whole clubhouse. He’s one guy, and he’s driven by a desire to win, and that’ll probably do more good than harm. Even if you disagree, there’s no basis for asserting the opposite.
This past season was an interesting one for Pierzynski. Aside from the home runs, he reduced his groundball rate while making less contact and striking out more often. That doesn’t confirm anything, but that suggests an adjustment to his swing, which would imply that the homer spike might not have been a complete coincidence. Pierzynski might have made an effort to make power more of his game. And while it’s unquestionable that Pierzynski benefited from his environment — over his White Sox career, he hit 74 dingers at home and 44 dingers on the road — he isn’t leaving U.S. Cellular for a neutral park. Texas is actually more friendly to left-handed batters than Chicago is, with a similar home-run factor and a higher overall runs factor. Pierzynski might not post the same sort of power numbers in Los Angeles or Oakland, but he didn’t commit to playing half his games in Los Angeles or Oakland.
If Pierzynski simply goes back to what he was before 2012, he’ll be more or less worth the contract the Rangers gave him. But 2012 happened, too, introducing new information. In the simplest of terms, Pierzynski’s player page gives him a 2012 WAR of 3.4, and the Rangers got him for a year and $7.5 million. Of course Pierzynski probably won’t WAR 3.4 again in 2013. But if any of those gains carry over, he could be a small bargain, and if they don’t, he could and should be just fine. That makes this a perfectly sensible acquisition.
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With Geovany Soto and Eli Whiteside, the Rangers already had catchers, but they didn’t have good catchers, or left-handed-hitting catchers with a fair amount of power. While it’s presently unclear exactly how Pierzynski and Soto will split time, Pierzynski has exceeded 500 plate appearances in every season but one since 2003. In that one, he reached 497. Pierzynski has proven that he can handle an awful lot of work, and Soto just batted .198.
This Pierzynski contract isn’t one to flip out about, by any means. Pierzynski is an aging, unspectacular player coming off a late-career year and coming out of a hitter-friendly ballpark. A $7.5-million salary isn’t something you find in the sofa unless you’re somewhere in or near Dodger Stadium. But the Rangers filled a need and didn’t have to go beyond 2013 to do it. For reference, the FanGraphs crowd predicted that Pierzynski would sign for two years and $18 million. The crowd has thus far been eerily accurate, and Pierzynski signed for a lesser commitment than almost everyone expected.
There are, of course, concerns, and all of them are legitimate. Pierzynski didn’t sign a multi-year deal, and there are reasons for that. In a few days, Pierzynski will officially turn 36, and that’s pretty old for a regular backstop. You expect that a player at this point will be in his decline phase, and you expect that the next season will be worse than the previous season. Seldom do players maintain strong performances as they approach 40.
There are questions about Pierzynski’s defense. This is reportedly the reason the Yankees stayed away, even though Pierzynski’s swing is a perfect fit for the ballpark. Looking at the pitch-framing numbers, Pierzynski is neither good nor bad, but he’s below-average at blocking pitches, he’s below-average at throwing runners out, and he’s had confrontations with his pitchers about game-calling. You don’t acquire A.J. Pierzynski as an alternative to Jose Molina.
Pierzynski is also known for his fiery, irritating personality, and he’s sort of the baseball equivalent of a hockey agitator. In the heat of competition, plenty of players can’t stand him, and away from the heat of competition, plenty of players still can’t stand him. Pierzynski was recently voted baseball’s most hated player, and so you can’t predict how he’ll fit into a new clubhouse. He could potentially be disruptive, or worse.
And then there’s the matter of Pierzynski going from 13 home runs to nine home runs to eight home runs to 27 home runs. Pierzynski, in 2012, beat his previous career-high for dingers by 50%, and there’s every reason to be skeptical of such a late-career spike. His 118 wRC+ was his first above-average wRC+ since 2003, and you just can’t expect that sort of performance to repeat, at Pierzynski’s age.
All of these are valid. No one’s going to tell you that Pierzynski is guaranteed to be a good player and a good teammate in 2013. He could be unpopular, and he could be unsuccessful, and then the Rangers would have a mess on their hands. But it would be a minor mess, because Pierzynski isn’t costing a fortune and he’s only got the one-year commitment. There’s so little risk with a one-year deal like this, and consider what Pierzynski just did.
At 35, Pierzynski set career highs in home runs and wRC+. One can’t just pretend that didn’t happen, and one can’t just erase that from his performance history. You expect that players at Pierzynski’s age will get worse, but Pierzynski just performed a lot better and that has to be factored into any future projection. Specific data points are probably more meaningful than general principles.
Pierzynski’s defense isn’t a strength, but that’s only a part of the whole picture. Michael Young‘s defense wasn’t a strength, but the Rangers still loved him. And as for Pierzynski’s personality, that could realistically go either way, and there’s no way to predict it. Odds are, Pierzynski is one of those guys you hate to play against but love to play with, and it’s not reasonable to think that Pierzynski might bring down the whole clubhouse. He’s one guy, and he’s driven by a desire to win, and that’ll probably do more good than harm. Even if you disagree, there’s no basis for asserting the opposite.
This past season was an interesting one for Pierzynski. Aside from the home runs, he reduced his groundball rate while making less contact and striking out more often. That doesn’t confirm anything, but that suggests an adjustment to his swing, which would imply that the homer spike might not have been a complete coincidence. Pierzynski might have made an effort to make power more of his game. And while it’s unquestionable that Pierzynski benefited from his environment — over his White Sox career, he hit 74 dingers at home and 44 dingers on the road — he isn’t leaving U.S. Cellular for a neutral park. Texas is actually more friendly to left-handed batters than Chicago is, with a similar home-run factor and a higher overall runs factor. Pierzynski might not post the same sort of power numbers in Los Angeles or Oakland, but he didn’t commit to playing half his games in Los Angeles or Oakland.
If Pierzynski simply goes back to what he was before 2012, he’ll be more or less worth the contract the Rangers gave him. But 2012 happened, too, introducing new information. In the simplest of terms, Pierzynski’s player page gives him a 2012 WAR of 3.4, and the Rangers got him for a year and $7.5 million. Of course Pierzynski probably won’t WAR 3.4 again in 2013. But if any of those gains carry over, he could be a small bargain, and if they don’t, he could and should be just fine. That makes this a perfectly sensible acquisition.
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Francisco Liriano and the Slow Death of ERA.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have reportedly agreed to sign Francisco Liriano to a two year, $14 million contract. It’s an interesting deal, and we’ll talk about the specifics of Liriano and the Pirates in a second, but I first want to look at where this deal fits into an interesting off-season trend.
From a runs allowed perspective, Francisco Liriano was terrible last year. Just like he was the year before, too. By RA9-wins, Liriano has basically been a replacement level pitcher for the last two years, putting up an ERA- of 127 over that span. Of the 109 pitchers who have thrown 250 or more innings since the start of the 2011 season, Liriano’s ERA- ranks 104th. In terms of preventing runs, he’s been better than only Chris Volstad, J.A. Happ, Derek Lowe, Josh Tomlin, and Brian Duensing.
From a FIP perspective, though, Liriano has been a bit better. Not good, but better. We’ve got his WAR (based on walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed) over the last two years at +2.9, making him a below average — but not abysmal — starter. Liriano’s stuff and peripherals suggest that he should get better results going forward than he’s gotten in the past. And if his stuff and peripherals are right, then 2/14 for Liriano could easily be a bargain for the Pirates.
But here’s the thing; Liriano’s stuff and peripherals have been saying this for a while, and he’s been underperforming his FIP for nearly his entire career.
Season IP ERA- FIP- xFIP-
2005 23 132 77 46
2006 121 48 58 53
2008 76 91 91 98
2009 136 132 112 101
2010 191 88 64 70
2011 134 125 113 112
2012 156 129 104 100
Career 840 104 89 87
With the exception of his remarkable 2006 season and a half year comeback in 2008, Liriano’s ERA hasn’t been anywhere close to his FIP or xFIP. In 2009, 2011, and 2012, xFIP suggests that Liriano has been something like league average. In 2009, 2011, and 2012, ERA suggests that Liriano has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Even in 2010, when his results were good, they weren’t nearly as good as his BB/K/HR rates suggested that they should be. The last time Liriano’s results matched his peripherals, Lou Piniella won Manager of the Year, Geovany Soto was Rookie of the Year, and Randy Johnson was still a member of the Diamondbacks rotation.
This is the kind of track record that gets a pitcher described as an outlier. For whatever reason, Liriano has been consistently terrible at stranding runners, and while it’s easy to write that off as a fluke over a year or even two, it gets a bit tougher to believe that this is all just random variance in sequencing when he’s at 840 innings pitched and has a career LOB% under 70%.
But yet, here are the Pirates, paying Liriano for a performance that requires his FIP to be the more predictive aspect, not his his strand rate and ERA. This deal follows on the heels of the Angels giving Joe Blanton essentially the same contract for the same kind of paradox. And it follows Zack Greinke getting paid like an ace, even though you have to disbelieve in the predictive power of ERA to believe that Zack Greinke is an ace. And it follows Anibal Sanchez signing an $80 million contract coming off a couple of seasons where his ERA- (96) had him as a decent starter but his FIP (87) had him as one of the better starters in baseball. Toss in Scott Feldman getting $6 million from the Cubs, and this has been a pretty profitable winter for starting pitchers who posted much better FIPs than ERAs over the last few years.
Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse and his 74 ERA- are still sitting on the market, with no real rumors to suggest that any team is actively pursuing him in a serious way. Joe Saunders, who had a better ERA than Edwin Jackson last year and has a better career ERA as well, is still on the market after watching Jackson sign a $52 million contract with the Cubs yesterday. Brandon McCarthy, who has an 83 ERA- over the last three years — the best total of any free agent starter this winter — signed a contract that pays him basically the same total as Liriano and Blanton. Obviously, there’s extenuating factors related to McCarthy’s health, but it’s interesting that the guy who posted the best three-year-ERA of the entire class signed the same deal as two guys who were well below average in terms of runs allowed since 2010.
Not every pitching acquisition has followed this trend, of course. Jeremy Guthrie got paid for his history of run prevention, even though FIP and xFIP hate him. The Angels offset their Blanton acquisition by trading for Jason Vargas, whose value is reliant upon low BABIPs and HR/FB rates. Teams don’t appear to be beating down Roy Oswalt‘s door, even though his peripherals suggest that he could still be a pretty effective pitcher for someone next year. I’m not saying that teams don’t care about ERA anymore. But they certainly appear to be caring about it less, or at the least, giving more credit to pitchers who have given them reason to think that maybe their future ERA will be better than their past ERA.
That’s what the Pirates are betting on with Liriano. They made this exact same bet with A.J. Burnett last year — he was coming off two roughly replacement level seasons by RA9, but had been just a bit below average by FIP — and it paid off big time, as he gave them 200 excellent innings for a bargain price. But Burnett had a better track record than Liriano, had been healthier than Liriano, and hadn’t seen the same wild velocity fluctuations as Liriano, and they still only had to pick up $13 million of the $33 million he was owed in 2012-2013 when they acquired him from New York. A year later, they’re paying $14 million for Liriano, a worse version of the same idea.
It’s a bet that’s probably worth making, especially for a team that isn’t going to be landing any frontline starters at frontline starter prices, but it’s worth noting that the price for these kinds of pitchers seems to be going up pretty quickly. Guys like Liriano used to have to settle for one year deals, but now, teams are betting multi-year contracts on their peripherals being more predictive than their ERAs.
After years of overpaying for unsustainable results, it seems like MLB teams have made adjustments, and are now better identifying which pitchers to go after in free agency. A high ERA no longer means that you’re not getting paid. That’s what I call progress.
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From a runs allowed perspective, Francisco Liriano was terrible last year. Just like he was the year before, too. By RA9-wins, Liriano has basically been a replacement level pitcher for the last two years, putting up an ERA- of 127 over that span. Of the 109 pitchers who have thrown 250 or more innings since the start of the 2011 season, Liriano’s ERA- ranks 104th. In terms of preventing runs, he’s been better than only Chris Volstad, J.A. Happ, Derek Lowe, Josh Tomlin, and Brian Duensing.
From a FIP perspective, though, Liriano has been a bit better. Not good, but better. We’ve got his WAR (based on walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed) over the last two years at +2.9, making him a below average — but not abysmal — starter. Liriano’s stuff and peripherals suggest that he should get better results going forward than he’s gotten in the past. And if his stuff and peripherals are right, then 2/14 for Liriano could easily be a bargain for the Pirates.
But here’s the thing; Liriano’s stuff and peripherals have been saying this for a while, and he’s been underperforming his FIP for nearly his entire career.
Season IP ERA- FIP- xFIP-
2005 23 132 77 46
2006 121 48 58 53
2008 76 91 91 98
2009 136 132 112 101
2010 191 88 64 70
2011 134 125 113 112
2012 156 129 104 100
Career 840 104 89 87
With the exception of his remarkable 2006 season and a half year comeback in 2008, Liriano’s ERA hasn’t been anywhere close to his FIP or xFIP. In 2009, 2011, and 2012, xFIP suggests that Liriano has been something like league average. In 2009, 2011, and 2012, ERA suggests that Liriano has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Even in 2010, when his results were good, they weren’t nearly as good as his BB/K/HR rates suggested that they should be. The last time Liriano’s results matched his peripherals, Lou Piniella won Manager of the Year, Geovany Soto was Rookie of the Year, and Randy Johnson was still a member of the Diamondbacks rotation.
This is the kind of track record that gets a pitcher described as an outlier. For whatever reason, Liriano has been consistently terrible at stranding runners, and while it’s easy to write that off as a fluke over a year or even two, it gets a bit tougher to believe that this is all just random variance in sequencing when he’s at 840 innings pitched and has a career LOB% under 70%.
But yet, here are the Pirates, paying Liriano for a performance that requires his FIP to be the more predictive aspect, not his his strand rate and ERA. This deal follows on the heels of the Angels giving Joe Blanton essentially the same contract for the same kind of paradox. And it follows Zack Greinke getting paid like an ace, even though you have to disbelieve in the predictive power of ERA to believe that Zack Greinke is an ace. And it follows Anibal Sanchez signing an $80 million contract coming off a couple of seasons where his ERA- (96) had him as a decent starter but his FIP (87) had him as one of the better starters in baseball. Toss in Scott Feldman getting $6 million from the Cubs, and this has been a pretty profitable winter for starting pitchers who posted much better FIPs than ERAs over the last few years.
Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse and his 74 ERA- are still sitting on the market, with no real rumors to suggest that any team is actively pursuing him in a serious way. Joe Saunders, who had a better ERA than Edwin Jackson last year and has a better career ERA as well, is still on the market after watching Jackson sign a $52 million contract with the Cubs yesterday. Brandon McCarthy, who has an 83 ERA- over the last three years — the best total of any free agent starter this winter — signed a contract that pays him basically the same total as Liriano and Blanton. Obviously, there’s extenuating factors related to McCarthy’s health, but it’s interesting that the guy who posted the best three-year-ERA of the entire class signed the same deal as two guys who were well below average in terms of runs allowed since 2010.
Not every pitching acquisition has followed this trend, of course. Jeremy Guthrie got paid for his history of run prevention, even though FIP and xFIP hate him. The Angels offset their Blanton acquisition by trading for Jason Vargas, whose value is reliant upon low BABIPs and HR/FB rates. Teams don’t appear to be beating down Roy Oswalt‘s door, even though his peripherals suggest that he could still be a pretty effective pitcher for someone next year. I’m not saying that teams don’t care about ERA anymore. But they certainly appear to be caring about it less, or at the least, giving more credit to pitchers who have given them reason to think that maybe their future ERA will be better than their past ERA.
That’s what the Pirates are betting on with Liriano. They made this exact same bet with A.J. Burnett last year — he was coming off two roughly replacement level seasons by RA9, but had been just a bit below average by FIP — and it paid off big time, as he gave them 200 excellent innings for a bargain price. But Burnett had a better track record than Liriano, had been healthier than Liriano, and hadn’t seen the same wild velocity fluctuations as Liriano, and they still only had to pick up $13 million of the $33 million he was owed in 2012-2013 when they acquired him from New York. A year later, they’re paying $14 million for Liriano, a worse version of the same idea.
It’s a bet that’s probably worth making, especially for a team that isn’t going to be landing any frontline starters at frontline starter prices, but it’s worth noting that the price for these kinds of pitchers seems to be going up pretty quickly. Guys like Liriano used to have to settle for one year deals, but now, teams are betting multi-year contracts on their peripherals being more predictive than their ERAs.
After years of overpaying for unsustainable results, it seems like MLB teams have made adjustments, and are now better identifying which pitchers to go after in free agency. A high ERA no longer means that you’re not getting paid. That’s what I call progress.
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Value and Perception in the Corner OF Market.
Value is an all-encompassing term comprised of performance relative to the position, league and readily available alternatives, as well as the price paid to acquire that production. It’s also fueled by the utility of the player to the team in how he is used. A team can maximize value by using a player according to his strengths while masking his faults. However, if a team perceives a player incorrectly, it runs the risk of minimizing his value.
This idea of maximizing strengths most often surfaces in the form of platoons. A lefty-crusher who struggles against righties won’t face same-handed pitchers much in a straight platoon. The idea of perceiving a player incorrectly and minimizing his value occurs when teams incorrectly view a platoon player as an everyday starter.
Which brings us to the free agent market, which still includes Cody Ross, Scott Hairston and Juan Rivera, three players best utilized as the lefty-crushing component of a platoon sandwich. Only Ross is viewed by many teams as an everyday starter — valid to an extent — and is seeking a contract commensurate with that view.
While he could certainly start for several teams, his value is largely connected to his production against lefties, who only throw about 25% of the innings in a season. He is a better overall player than Hairston and Rivera, averaging ~2 WAR over the last four seasons, yet he is 32 years old and is reportedly seeking a deal in the 3/$24 vicinity.
Given these factors, teams might find it more cost-effective to sign Hairston or Rivera for a strict platoon role. Assuming they are platooned with players that hit righties well, an interested team could eke out even more production.
Over the last four years, Rivera has posted respective wRC+ marks against lefties of 106, 122, 102 and 167. Hairston is at 135, 90, 84 and 149 over the same span. Collectively, Rivera has a .359 wOBA and 125 wRC+ against southpaws in 585 PAs since 2009, while Hairston has a .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+ in 546 PAs. Both hit lefties well, though Rivera’s yearly numbers fluctuated less and he remained above average each season.
As an everyday player, Ross has a .333 wOBA and 105 wRC+ from 2009-12. While his numbers against lefties are superior to Rivera’s and Hairston’s, the apt comparison here is his overall numbers to their platoon splits. Teams perceive Hairston as a part-time player and aren’t going to sign Rivera for everyday duty either, but they will do so with Ross.
Strictly comparing their offensive proclivities against lefties, Ross is the best bet, but it’s unlikely that he’ll sign for something like 1/$3 or 2/$7. It’s also hard to imagine Hairston signing for much more than 2/$10 or Rivera getting even half of that.
There are inherent advantages in using Ross as an everyday player — saving a roster spot and increasing the consistency on both offense and defense a platoon may lack — but a team strapped for cash could likely replicate his production by pairing the less expensive Hairston or Rivera with a lefty that hits righties well. Ross has value, and teams could do far worse than a potential 2 WAR corner outfielder, but the issue is whether a team would rather spend $8 million for 100% of him, or half that cost for 85-90% of him.
The bar isn’t set very high in finding someone to handle righties either, as Ross has a .316 wOBA and just a 93 wRC+ since 2009 in that split. The list of players who have produced better includes Casey McGehee, Vernon Wells, Erick Aybar and Nyjer Morgan. Looking at the last two years, Ross has a .320 wOBA and 100 wRC+ against righties, improving on his 2009-10 numbers. The list of players who have outperformed him over the last two years includes Raul Ibanez, Coco Crisp and Michael Brantley.
Ross is a decent player but it’s doubtful he is really worth $8-$9 million per year when a platoon of, say, Juan Rivera and Nyjer Morgan could replicate most of that production for a fraction of the price. Ross is somewhat in between an everyday player and a platoon candidate but the perceived uncertainty is costly compared to players clearly perceived as part-time players. With Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher still available, and a number of teams getting creative with trades, it will be interesting to see where the pieces fall. What happens with the likes of Ross, Hairston and Rivera could go a long way towards establishing how teams currently view cost-effectiveness and value.
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This idea of maximizing strengths most often surfaces in the form of platoons. A lefty-crusher who struggles against righties won’t face same-handed pitchers much in a straight platoon. The idea of perceiving a player incorrectly and minimizing his value occurs when teams incorrectly view a platoon player as an everyday starter.
Which brings us to the free agent market, which still includes Cody Ross, Scott Hairston and Juan Rivera, three players best utilized as the lefty-crushing component of a platoon sandwich. Only Ross is viewed by many teams as an everyday starter — valid to an extent — and is seeking a contract commensurate with that view.
While he could certainly start for several teams, his value is largely connected to his production against lefties, who only throw about 25% of the innings in a season. He is a better overall player than Hairston and Rivera, averaging ~2 WAR over the last four seasons, yet he is 32 years old and is reportedly seeking a deal in the 3/$24 vicinity.
Given these factors, teams might find it more cost-effective to sign Hairston or Rivera for a strict platoon role. Assuming they are platooned with players that hit righties well, an interested team could eke out even more production.
Over the last four years, Rivera has posted respective wRC+ marks against lefties of 106, 122, 102 and 167. Hairston is at 135, 90, 84 and 149 over the same span. Collectively, Rivera has a .359 wOBA and 125 wRC+ against southpaws in 585 PAs since 2009, while Hairston has a .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+ in 546 PAs. Both hit lefties well, though Rivera’s yearly numbers fluctuated less and he remained above average each season.
As an everyday player, Ross has a .333 wOBA and 105 wRC+ from 2009-12. While his numbers against lefties are superior to Rivera’s and Hairston’s, the apt comparison here is his overall numbers to their platoon splits. Teams perceive Hairston as a part-time player and aren’t going to sign Rivera for everyday duty either, but they will do so with Ross.
Strictly comparing their offensive proclivities against lefties, Ross is the best bet, but it’s unlikely that he’ll sign for something like 1/$3 or 2/$7. It’s also hard to imagine Hairston signing for much more than 2/$10 or Rivera getting even half of that.
There are inherent advantages in using Ross as an everyday player — saving a roster spot and increasing the consistency on both offense and defense a platoon may lack — but a team strapped for cash could likely replicate his production by pairing the less expensive Hairston or Rivera with a lefty that hits righties well. Ross has value, and teams could do far worse than a potential 2 WAR corner outfielder, but the issue is whether a team would rather spend $8 million for 100% of him, or half that cost for 85-90% of him.
The bar isn’t set very high in finding someone to handle righties either, as Ross has a .316 wOBA and just a 93 wRC+ since 2009 in that split. The list of players who have produced better includes Casey McGehee, Vernon Wells, Erick Aybar and Nyjer Morgan. Looking at the last two years, Ross has a .320 wOBA and 100 wRC+ against righties, improving on his 2009-10 numbers. The list of players who have outperformed him over the last two years includes Raul Ibanez, Coco Crisp and Michael Brantley.
Ross is a decent player but it’s doubtful he is really worth $8-$9 million per year when a platoon of, say, Juan Rivera and Nyjer Morgan could replicate most of that production for a fraction of the price. Ross is somewhat in between an everyday player and a platoon candidate but the perceived uncertainty is costly compared to players clearly perceived as part-time players. With Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher still available, and a number of teams getting creative with trades, it will be interesting to see where the pieces fall. What happens with the likes of Ross, Hairston and Rivera could go a long way towards establishing how teams currently view cost-effectiveness and value.
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Kendrys Morales and Partial Uselessness.
As facts about Kendrys Morales go, here are a few of them. On Wednesday, Morales was traded from the Angels to the Mariners in exchange for Jason Vargas. Morales is and has always been a switch-hitter as a professional. Morales began switch-hitting when he was 12 years old, and the right side is his natural side. That is, Morales naturally bats right-handed, and he had to learn how to swing as a lefty. Every switch-hitter starts off with a natural side, but what’s interesting about the Morales case is this:
Career as a lefty: 127 wRC+
Career as a righty: 84 wRC+
Morales has thrived from his unnatural side, and struggled from his natural side. You can pull off an 84 wRC+ if you’re a shortstop or a center fielder or a pitcher, but not so much if you’re a 1B/DH. For his career, as a right-handed hitter, Morales has been unhelpful.
I don’t know what the consensus is on switch-hitters, but most people probably think of them as mirror images. They probably think Player X is more or less Player X no matter which side he’s standing on. Of course we shouldn’t expect that to be true — different sides are stronger than others — and it isn’t true in the case of Morales. The sample size as a righty is limited, perhaps too limited for absolute comfort, but my understanding is that platoon splits for switch-hitters stabilize pretty fast, and Morales’ separation is enormous.
If we dig deeper, we can find more of interest:
as LHB wOBA ISO
Pull 0.480 0.381
Center 0.450 0.289
Opposite 0.321 0.122
as RHB wOBA ISO
Pull 0.313 0.168
Center 0.347 0.182
Opposite 0.372 0.276
Batting left-handed, Morales has been a pretty conventional pull hitter with power up the middle, too. He’s yanked a lot of home runs to right-center field, and a lot of those home runs have been impressive. Batting right-handed, Morales has had the majority of his success up the middle and especially the other way. As a righty, Morales has had his power to right field. There’s no particular Angel Stadium park factor we should be taking into consideration right here. Morales has just done his damage to center and right, regardless of where he’s stood.
If we know that Morales has been worse as a righty, and if we know that he’s hit as a righty to the opposite field, what that suggests is that Morales has been later to get around. We can’t refer to him as a punch hitter or a slap hitter, because those isolated sluggings are substantial. Morales has had power from his natural side. Just not so much pull power. Morales’ strikeout rate has been a little lower from the right side than from the left side. Historically, there’s been no difference in swing rate, and there’s been no significant difference in contact rate. It’s the batted-ball profile that’s different.
Before we move on, I suppose I should show you some dinger .gifs. This is a post topic that cries out for images. We should get an idea of what Morales’ swings actually look like. These are all from 2012.
Morales certainly looks powerful from the right side, just as from the left side. Although, granted, I selected clips of home runs, so, yeah. His stances are open, but Morales holds his hands a little higher as a lefty, and he seems to have a more pronounced step. When you have a guy who generates different results, you expect that there will be differences in swing mechanics. Some are easily observed, and I’m not even good at analyzing this sort of thing. If you are, you might see far, far more.
So we’ve established that Morales has been relatively unsuccessful batting right-handed, despite that being his natural side. Now we wonder: are there any signs of improvement, or is this just what Morales is? I did a lot of Googling, and below I’m going to present a few article excerpts:
October 2009:
“His right-handed swing came alive in the second half of the season. That’s important.”
Finding his stroke from his natural right side — he began switch-hitting at age 12 — enabled Morales to play every day after sitting against most lefties early in the season.
April 2010:
Morales made strides in the second half and worked all winter in Miami — taking batting practice six days a week — to refine his right-handed stroke. He also sought out his former hitting coach in Cuba, Miguel Valdez, who had also defected. Valdez filmed him and then tinkered with his right-handed stance.
[...]
“This guy’s got a great swing from both sides. … There’s not going to be much difference when it’s all said and done, I don’t believe,” manager Mike Scioscia said.
August 2009:
“I’ve been able to see the ball better from that side, reading patterns,” Morales said, having raised his average against lefties to .275 and his slugging percentage to .475. “I made a couple of adjustments with my hands.”
Morales didn’t bat a whole lot against left-handed pitchers in 2012, which makes it look like he was being strictly platooned. He basically was, but there were reasons for that: Morales needed some occasional days off, and the Angels needed to play the right-handed Mark Trumbo. In 2010, before getting hurt, Morales wasn’t platooned, nor was he platooned down the stretch in 2009. It’s unclear at this point just what the Angels wound up thinking about Morales as a switch-hitter.
But, in one of the excerpts above, Scioscia says that Morales really found his right-handed swing in 2009′s second half. I’m dreadfully uncomfortable splitting an already small sample like this, but watch what happens if you split Morales’ career at the 2009 All-Star break:
Through ’09 ASB, as a righty: .224/.242/.336
Since ’09 ASB, as a righty: .269/.315/.472
Now the picture looks a little different. We already said that platoon splits for switch-hitters tend to stabilize quickly. Does that mean they can re-stabilize quickly? Is Morales not as useless as his overall career split?
It’s interesting that, for his career, Morales has pulled the ball 40% of the time batting lefty, but 43% of the time batting righty. We wouldn’t have thought that, based on the power profile included above. But of more interest to me are groundballs. Groundballs should not be a big part of Kendrys Morales’ game, on account of he’s Kendrys Morales, just look at him, I mean come on. He’s an aggressive power hitter. So:
Split GB%
LHB, 06-08 45%
LHB, 09-12 45%
RHB, 06-08 60%
RHB, 09-12 50%
Nothing doing in the left-handed swing. In the right-handed swing, we see a significant drop in groundball rate, as Morales has done a better job of putting the ball in the air, where it belongs (for him). Last season, Morales actually hit more grounders from the left side than from the right side. Last season, from the right side, Morales slugged .471. The sample is small, but performance is performance, and Morales wasn’t even 100% coming back from injury.
Overall, Kendrys Morales has not been much of a switch-hitter, as he’s been fairly unproductive batting right-handed, which is a big part of any switch-hitter’s job. Given Morales’ career splits, one assumes the Mariners should think about platooning him going forward. Yet there are signs that Morales might have made substantial progress over the years. It’s hard to say anything for sure, given the nature of the sample sizes we’re dealing with, but Morales might not actually be partially useless, as he used to be. His natural side might be catching up, and for a guy a year away from free agency, there are worse career possibilities.
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Career as a lefty: 127 wRC+
Career as a righty: 84 wRC+
Morales has thrived from his unnatural side, and struggled from his natural side. You can pull off an 84 wRC+ if you’re a shortstop or a center fielder or a pitcher, but not so much if you’re a 1B/DH. For his career, as a right-handed hitter, Morales has been unhelpful.
I don’t know what the consensus is on switch-hitters, but most people probably think of them as mirror images. They probably think Player X is more or less Player X no matter which side he’s standing on. Of course we shouldn’t expect that to be true — different sides are stronger than others — and it isn’t true in the case of Morales. The sample size as a righty is limited, perhaps too limited for absolute comfort, but my understanding is that platoon splits for switch-hitters stabilize pretty fast, and Morales’ separation is enormous.
If we dig deeper, we can find more of interest:
as LHB wOBA ISO
Pull 0.480 0.381
Center 0.450 0.289
Opposite 0.321 0.122
as RHB wOBA ISO
Pull 0.313 0.168
Center 0.347 0.182
Opposite 0.372 0.276
Batting left-handed, Morales has been a pretty conventional pull hitter with power up the middle, too. He’s yanked a lot of home runs to right-center field, and a lot of those home runs have been impressive. Batting right-handed, Morales has had the majority of his success up the middle and especially the other way. As a righty, Morales has had his power to right field. There’s no particular Angel Stadium park factor we should be taking into consideration right here. Morales has just done his damage to center and right, regardless of where he’s stood.
If we know that Morales has been worse as a righty, and if we know that he’s hit as a righty to the opposite field, what that suggests is that Morales has been later to get around. We can’t refer to him as a punch hitter or a slap hitter, because those isolated sluggings are substantial. Morales has had power from his natural side. Just not so much pull power. Morales’ strikeout rate has been a little lower from the right side than from the left side. Historically, there’s been no difference in swing rate, and there’s been no significant difference in contact rate. It’s the batted-ball profile that’s different.
Before we move on, I suppose I should show you some dinger .gifs. This is a post topic that cries out for images. We should get an idea of what Morales’ swings actually look like. These are all from 2012.
Morales certainly looks powerful from the right side, just as from the left side. Although, granted, I selected clips of home runs, so, yeah. His stances are open, but Morales holds his hands a little higher as a lefty, and he seems to have a more pronounced step. When you have a guy who generates different results, you expect that there will be differences in swing mechanics. Some are easily observed, and I’m not even good at analyzing this sort of thing. If you are, you might see far, far more.
So we’ve established that Morales has been relatively unsuccessful batting right-handed, despite that being his natural side. Now we wonder: are there any signs of improvement, or is this just what Morales is? I did a lot of Googling, and below I’m going to present a few article excerpts:
October 2009:
“His right-handed swing came alive in the second half of the season. That’s important.”
Finding his stroke from his natural right side — he began switch-hitting at age 12 — enabled Morales to play every day after sitting against most lefties early in the season.
April 2010:
Morales made strides in the second half and worked all winter in Miami — taking batting practice six days a week — to refine his right-handed stroke. He also sought out his former hitting coach in Cuba, Miguel Valdez, who had also defected. Valdez filmed him and then tinkered with his right-handed stance.
[...]
“This guy’s got a great swing from both sides. … There’s not going to be much difference when it’s all said and done, I don’t believe,” manager Mike Scioscia said.
August 2009:
“I’ve been able to see the ball better from that side, reading patterns,” Morales said, having raised his average against lefties to .275 and his slugging percentage to .475. “I made a couple of adjustments with my hands.”
Morales didn’t bat a whole lot against left-handed pitchers in 2012, which makes it look like he was being strictly platooned. He basically was, but there were reasons for that: Morales needed some occasional days off, and the Angels needed to play the right-handed Mark Trumbo. In 2010, before getting hurt, Morales wasn’t platooned, nor was he platooned down the stretch in 2009. It’s unclear at this point just what the Angels wound up thinking about Morales as a switch-hitter.
But, in one of the excerpts above, Scioscia says that Morales really found his right-handed swing in 2009′s second half. I’m dreadfully uncomfortable splitting an already small sample like this, but watch what happens if you split Morales’ career at the 2009 All-Star break:
Through ’09 ASB, as a righty: .224/.242/.336
Since ’09 ASB, as a righty: .269/.315/.472
Now the picture looks a little different. We already said that platoon splits for switch-hitters tend to stabilize quickly. Does that mean they can re-stabilize quickly? Is Morales not as useless as his overall career split?
It’s interesting that, for his career, Morales has pulled the ball 40% of the time batting lefty, but 43% of the time batting righty. We wouldn’t have thought that, based on the power profile included above. But of more interest to me are groundballs. Groundballs should not be a big part of Kendrys Morales’ game, on account of he’s Kendrys Morales, just look at him, I mean come on. He’s an aggressive power hitter. So:
Split GB%
LHB, 06-08 45%
LHB, 09-12 45%
RHB, 06-08 60%
RHB, 09-12 50%
Nothing doing in the left-handed swing. In the right-handed swing, we see a significant drop in groundball rate, as Morales has done a better job of putting the ball in the air, where it belongs (for him). Last season, Morales actually hit more grounders from the left side than from the right side. Last season, from the right side, Morales slugged .471. The sample is small, but performance is performance, and Morales wasn’t even 100% coming back from injury.
Overall, Kendrys Morales has not been much of a switch-hitter, as he’s been fairly unproductive batting right-handed, which is a big part of any switch-hitter’s job. Given Morales’ career splits, one assumes the Mariners should think about platooning him going forward. Yet there are signs that Morales might have made substantial progress over the years. It’s hard to say anything for sure, given the nature of the sample sizes we’re dealing with, but Morales might not actually be partially useless, as he used to be. His natural side might be catching up, and for a guy a year away from free agency, there are worse career possibilities.
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Did Michael Bourn & Scott Boras Wait Too Long?
Josh Hamilton got $125 million. B.J. Upton got $75 million. Angel Pagan got $40 million. Shane Victorino got $39 million. Melky Cabrera got $16 million. And Michael Bourn, the best center fielder still on the board — at this point, he’s probably the best free agent position player left, period — is still waiting for the right offer.
In the meantime, many other teams that looked like a good fit for him have filled center field with another player: the Nationals traded for Denard Span, the Phillies traded for Ben Revere, the Athletics traded for Chris Young. In the meantime, bloggers like Martin Gandy of Talking Chop, the SBNation Braves blog, are starting to wonder whether Bourn will need to take a one-year offer and wait ’til next year for his payday. So did Bourn wait too long? Did Scott Boras, gasp!, make a mistake?
I doubt it. Scott Boras is famous for getting his clients to wait until the last minute. At the beginning of the offseason, Bourn was one of many intriguing free agent possibilities. Now, he’s one of the only impact players left, and that has value. As a matter of fact, of all of Boras’s impact free agents to get big multiyear deals, virtually all of them signed it in December or January. (I’m ignoring his big-dollar extensions, because the timing on an extension is very different from the timing on a free agent.)
Here’s a table of many of his biggest free-agent deals. I put this together by hand so I’ve undoubtedly missed several; please let me know in the comments.
Name Date Years Dollars Team
Greg Maddux 12/9/1992 5 yr $28M Braves
Kevin Brown 12/12/1998 7 yr $105M Dodgers
Alex Rodriguez 12/11/2000 10 yr $252M Rangers
Chan Ho Park 1/16/2002 5 yr $65M Rangers
Adrian Beltre 12/16/2004 5 yr $64M Mariners
Kevin Millwood 12/26/2005 5 yr $60M Rangers
Carlos Beltran 1/9/2005 7 yr $119M Mets
Daisuke Matsuzaka* 12/13/2006 6 yr $52M Red Sox
Barry Zito 12/28/2006 7 yr $126M Giants
Andruw Jones 12/5/2007 2 yr $36.2M Dodgers
J.D. Drew 1/26/2007 5 yr $70M Red Sox
Mark Teixeira 12/23/2008 8 yr $180M Yankees
Derek Lowe 1/15/2009 4 yr $60M Braves
Manny Ramirez 3/*****09 2 yr $45M Dodgers
Jayson Werth 12/6/2010 7 yr $126M Nationals
Matt Holliday 1/5/2010 7 yr $120M Cardinals
Adrian Beltre 1/5/2011 5 yr $80M Rangers
Rafael Soriano 1/1*****11 3 yr $35M Yankees
Prince Fielder 1/25/2012 9 yr $214M Tigers
* The Red Sox paid a $51.1 million posting fee for Matsuzaka on November 16, 2007, and had 30 days to complete a deal. They completed it on the 29th day.
Now, those are his greatest successes, and lest I fall in the trap of sampling on the dependent variable, I had better note some of the times when he failed to get a rich multiyear deal for one of his clients.
In the 2009 offseason, Adrian Beltre was coming off a disappointing contract year in Seattle, and he didn’t receive any offers that Boras felt were worthy of his talents. So, on January 5, he signed with the Red Sox for one year and $10 million, hit the cover off the ball, and got an $80 million deal 12 months later. That was a rousing success. Other one-year deals didn’t work out as well.
Edwin Jackson was looking for a multiyear deal in the 2011 offseason. As Mike Axisa wrote back in August:
[Jackson] did in fact receive a multi-year offer, a three-year contract worth more than $30 million from the Pirates according to Ken Rosenthal. He instead opted for the one-year pillow contract, a Scott Boras specialty.
Jackson signed that one-year contract on February 2, 2012. Today, he signed for $52 million over four years.
Carlos Pena has been in this situation quite often in his career. Coming off a three-year, $24 million contract in the 2010 offseason, Boras tried to build his value with a one-year “pillow contract,” as Pena signed a one-year deal with the Cubs on December 8, 2010.
But it didn’t work; since then, Pena has signed two subsequent one-year deals, for less money each time. He signed a one year, $7.25 million contract with the Rays on January 23, 2012, and then he just signed a one year, $2.9 million contract with the Astros on December 17, 2012.
In the 2011 offseason, Ryan Madson appeared to have a 4 year, $44 million contract on the table from the Phillies, but it fell through. He signed a one-year, $8.5 million contract with the Reds (it was $6 million in 2012, then a mutual option with a $2.5 buyout for 2013).
Of course, Madson blew out his elbow and missed the whole year, and had to content himself with a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Angels. Shockingly, he signed that on November 28, 2012, the earliest that I have seen a Scott Boras free agent sign.
So, considering that Boras has such a well-established pattern of holding his free agents late in the offseason, why does it continue to be effective for the majority of his high-profile free agents? How is it that, twelve years after the Alex Rodriguez contract, where he famously convinced Rangers owner Tom Hicks to bid against himself, Scott Boras is able to get such a high value for most of his elite free agents?
Boras’s pattern is so well-known that a year ago, Jerry Crasnick wrote a column about this exact tendency of his. Crasnick quoted one NL executive as saying, “You have to marvel at his smarts and all that. But eventually, if you don’t change the plays, the defense stops you. And he keeps running the same plays.” However, another executive said: “But who knows? The amazing thing is, somehow he always seems to get them the money.”
The key is that scarcity runs in two directions. On the one hand, there are only 30 teams in baseball, and there is a limited number at any one time who will have a pressing need for a free agent at a given position. On the other hand, there are a very limited number of impact free agents.
Boras is willing to run out the clock and let the number of possible destinations dwindle because he relies on the fact that good free agents become increasingly scarce as the offseason wears on. He plays on the insecurity and sense of panic that teams start to feel as they approach the season and don’t feel happy with their teams as currently constructed.
After the trading flurry at the winter meetings, after many of the biggest-profile names have signed their contracts, there’s almost always a Boras client still on the board in December or January, and he’s usually the best player available at that point — and often, that Boras client has been the best free agent available all offseason.
There are almost always a few teams willing to pay a premium for a player like that, in the hopes that they’ll be able to basically score unanswered points against their division rivals. Boras realizes that the offseason is dynamic, and preys on teams who have been disappointed in their plans to upgrade their teams. His players often represent a last-ditch effort to upgrade a team after lower-cost creative options (like Denard Span) have already come off the board.
He occasionally outsmarts himself, as he may have done with Madson, and most famously of all with Matt Harrington. The Boras waiting game doesn’t always work. But all the same, it’s been pretty damn effective over the years. I wouldn’t bet against Boras — or Bourn.
UPDATE: Apparently, Edwin Jackson just signed a four year, $52 million deal with the Cubs. So the Scott Boras strategy — signing a one-year contract and then waiting till late December — clearly paid off for him, even though he’s no longer a Boras client.
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In the meantime, many other teams that looked like a good fit for him have filled center field with another player: the Nationals traded for Denard Span, the Phillies traded for Ben Revere, the Athletics traded for Chris Young. In the meantime, bloggers like Martin Gandy of Talking Chop, the SBNation Braves blog, are starting to wonder whether Bourn will need to take a one-year offer and wait ’til next year for his payday. So did Bourn wait too long? Did Scott Boras, gasp!, make a mistake?
I doubt it. Scott Boras is famous for getting his clients to wait until the last minute. At the beginning of the offseason, Bourn was one of many intriguing free agent possibilities. Now, he’s one of the only impact players left, and that has value. As a matter of fact, of all of Boras’s impact free agents to get big multiyear deals, virtually all of them signed it in December or January. (I’m ignoring his big-dollar extensions, because the timing on an extension is very different from the timing on a free agent.)
Here’s a table of many of his biggest free-agent deals. I put this together by hand so I’ve undoubtedly missed several; please let me know in the comments.
Name Date Years Dollars Team
Greg Maddux 12/9/1992 5 yr $28M Braves
Kevin Brown 12/12/1998 7 yr $105M Dodgers
Alex Rodriguez 12/11/2000 10 yr $252M Rangers
Chan Ho Park 1/16/2002 5 yr $65M Rangers
Adrian Beltre 12/16/2004 5 yr $64M Mariners
Kevin Millwood 12/26/2005 5 yr $60M Rangers
Carlos Beltran 1/9/2005 7 yr $119M Mets
Daisuke Matsuzaka* 12/13/2006 6 yr $52M Red Sox
Barry Zito 12/28/2006 7 yr $126M Giants
Andruw Jones 12/5/2007 2 yr $36.2M Dodgers
J.D. Drew 1/26/2007 5 yr $70M Red Sox
Mark Teixeira 12/23/2008 8 yr $180M Yankees
Derek Lowe 1/15/2009 4 yr $60M Braves
Manny Ramirez 3/*****09 2 yr $45M Dodgers
Jayson Werth 12/6/2010 7 yr $126M Nationals
Matt Holliday 1/5/2010 7 yr $120M Cardinals
Adrian Beltre 1/5/2011 5 yr $80M Rangers
Rafael Soriano 1/1*****11 3 yr $35M Yankees
Prince Fielder 1/25/2012 9 yr $214M Tigers
* The Red Sox paid a $51.1 million posting fee for Matsuzaka on November 16, 2007, and had 30 days to complete a deal. They completed it on the 29th day.
Now, those are his greatest successes, and lest I fall in the trap of sampling on the dependent variable, I had better note some of the times when he failed to get a rich multiyear deal for one of his clients.
In the 2009 offseason, Adrian Beltre was coming off a disappointing contract year in Seattle, and he didn’t receive any offers that Boras felt were worthy of his talents. So, on January 5, he signed with the Red Sox for one year and $10 million, hit the cover off the ball, and got an $80 million deal 12 months later. That was a rousing success. Other one-year deals didn’t work out as well.
Edwin Jackson was looking for a multiyear deal in the 2011 offseason. As Mike Axisa wrote back in August:
[Jackson] did in fact receive a multi-year offer, a three-year contract worth more than $30 million from the Pirates according to Ken Rosenthal. He instead opted for the one-year pillow contract, a Scott Boras specialty.
Jackson signed that one-year contract on February 2, 2012. Today, he signed for $52 million over four years.
Carlos Pena has been in this situation quite often in his career. Coming off a three-year, $24 million contract in the 2010 offseason, Boras tried to build his value with a one-year “pillow contract,” as Pena signed a one-year deal with the Cubs on December 8, 2010.
But it didn’t work; since then, Pena has signed two subsequent one-year deals, for less money each time. He signed a one year, $7.25 million contract with the Rays on January 23, 2012, and then he just signed a one year, $2.9 million contract with the Astros on December 17, 2012.
In the 2011 offseason, Ryan Madson appeared to have a 4 year, $44 million contract on the table from the Phillies, but it fell through. He signed a one-year, $8.5 million contract with the Reds (it was $6 million in 2012, then a mutual option with a $2.5 buyout for 2013).
Of course, Madson blew out his elbow and missed the whole year, and had to content himself with a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Angels. Shockingly, he signed that on November 28, 2012, the earliest that I have seen a Scott Boras free agent sign.
So, considering that Boras has such a well-established pattern of holding his free agents late in the offseason, why does it continue to be effective for the majority of his high-profile free agents? How is it that, twelve years after the Alex Rodriguez contract, where he famously convinced Rangers owner Tom Hicks to bid against himself, Scott Boras is able to get such a high value for most of his elite free agents?
Boras’s pattern is so well-known that a year ago, Jerry Crasnick wrote a column about this exact tendency of his. Crasnick quoted one NL executive as saying, “You have to marvel at his smarts and all that. But eventually, if you don’t change the plays, the defense stops you. And he keeps running the same plays.” However, another executive said: “But who knows? The amazing thing is, somehow he always seems to get them the money.”
The key is that scarcity runs in two directions. On the one hand, there are only 30 teams in baseball, and there is a limited number at any one time who will have a pressing need for a free agent at a given position. On the other hand, there are a very limited number of impact free agents.
Boras is willing to run out the clock and let the number of possible destinations dwindle because he relies on the fact that good free agents become increasingly scarce as the offseason wears on. He plays on the insecurity and sense of panic that teams start to feel as they approach the season and don’t feel happy with their teams as currently constructed.
After the trading flurry at the winter meetings, after many of the biggest-profile names have signed their contracts, there’s almost always a Boras client still on the board in December or January, and he’s usually the best player available at that point — and often, that Boras client has been the best free agent available all offseason.
There are almost always a few teams willing to pay a premium for a player like that, in the hopes that they’ll be able to basically score unanswered points against their division rivals. Boras realizes that the offseason is dynamic, and preys on teams who have been disappointed in their plans to upgrade their teams. His players often represent a last-ditch effort to upgrade a team after lower-cost creative options (like Denard Span) have already come off the board.
He occasionally outsmarts himself, as he may have done with Madson, and most famously of all with Matt Harrington. The Boras waiting game doesn’t always work. But all the same, it’s been pretty damn effective over the years. I wouldn’t bet against Boras — or Bourn.
UPDATE: Apparently, Edwin Jackson just signed a four year, $52 million deal with the Cubs. So the Scott Boras strategy — signing a one-year contract and then waiting till late December — clearly paid off for him, even though he’s no longer a Boras client.
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Cubs Sign Edwin Jackson
Last winter, I was flummoxed at the league’s apparent lack of interest in Edwin Jackson. He’d just put up his third straight solid season at age 27, and had established himself as a durable, effective +3 to +4 win starter. Unfortunately, in that post, I made a pretty bad assumption:
Someone’s going to get a steal with Edwin Jackson, and given what he’s likely to do for the price he’s going to cost, the signing team should probably want to lock him in at these rates for the next few years. From Jackson’s perspective, he’s just been given a thorough rejection in his efforts to land a long term contract in a market where he should have been a pretty well sought after commodity, so he shouldn’t expect that posting another 200 inning season with a decent ERA will land him a raise next winter.
Guess what? Jackson posted another 200 inning season with a decent ERA and now he’s landing a huge raise, as the Cubs are reportedly set to sign him to a four year, $52 million contract.
On the one hand, it’s a little weird that Jackson could get a year older and pitch a little worse than he did in the prior year, and still see it result in 4/52 a winter after he settled for 1/11, but most of the weirdness is that he had to settle for 1/11 in the first place. Since Jackson’s breakout year with the Tigers in 2009, he’s thrown 812 innings and posted a 95/93/95 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- line. Despite all the talk about his inconsistency, he’s given his teams 200 above average innings year in and year out, and his combination of effectiveness and health are a valuable package. Over the last four years, he’s been worth +14 WAR, regardless of whether you want to evaluate him by FIP or runs allowed.
In some ways, Jackson is the anti-Mark Buehrle, in that he has good stuff and a reputation for being inconsistent and losing his command of the strike zone. In other ways, though, Jackson is basically the same as Buehrle, as he gives you a reliable innings eater who can keep you in games but has enough deficiencies to fail the front-of-the-rotation starter test. Last year, at age 32, Buehrle signed a four year, $60 million contract. This is basically the market price for an above average innings sponge, and that’s exactly what Jackson is.
So, why would a rebuilding team like the Cubs want an above average innings sponge? Jeff Sullivan tackled that exact topic last week, when it was reported that they were on the verge of signing Anibal Sanchez. I’m just going to go ahead and quote him.
All right, we can still try to explain the Cubs’ interest. There are explanations for why this wouldn’t be so weird of a fit after all. We’ll begin just with the 2013 on-field product. There’s value in improving the team, even if the team doesn’t seem like a contender, because not only can contenders emerge by surprise, but fans simply respond better to a team that doesn’t suck so much. And with Sanchez, the 2013 Cubs might not suck so much. He’d join Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Scott Feldman, and Scott Baker as rotation candidates, and a pretty good rotation could be formed out of that group. The Cubs added Kyuji Fujikawa to the bullpen, and their run production could get a little better. With Sanchez, the 2013 Cubs could be a reasonable, respectable baseball team, and I’ll cite once more the 2012 Orioles and the 2012 Athletics. You never know.
The idea that bad-to-mediocre teams shouldn’t try to improve their clubs is just flat out wrong. We simply don’t know how to predict the future with enough accuracy to suggest that teams that don’t look like contenders should just lose on purpose. The marginal value of a win is higher for teams that are closer to contention, but it’s not zero for teams that are still working on stockpiling talent. And, when you have a chance to add a valuable player, that is stockpiling talent. Jackson wasn’t signed to a one year deal, and he’s not likely to turn into a useless waste of cash after this season. The Cubs just signed a quality starter for multiple years, and the truth about not being able to predict the future goes even more for years beyond the next one. We have no idea what the 2014 Cubs are going to look like, but it’s quite possible that their aggressive moves to improve this winter will have laid the foundation for them to make a run up the NL Central standings within the next couple of years.
After all, just last year, Jackson signed with a team that wasn’t necessarily expected to contend. When the Nationals signed Jackson, our lovable own poet Carson Cistulli wrote:
It’s possible that the Jackson signing represents an attempt on the part of Washington simply to not be mediocre. Or to be less mediocre. That’s a possible, if entirely uninspiring, explanation for the deal — because there’s value in being “just fine.” Furthermore, it’s possible that the Nationals see value in Jackson as a player either to flip for a decent prospect at the deadline, or from whom to gain a compensation pick in the 2013 draft after Jackson becomes a Type B free agent when the season is over.
For the Nationals to become actual contenders, though, at least one of the following three names will have to appear in fewer of manager Davey Johnson‘s lineups than is projected: Roger Bernadina, Ian Desmond, and Adam LaRoche.
It’s unlikely that any of those is an average major leaguer.
This is not to pick on Carson, but to point out that a year ago, it looked like the Nationals had big holes at first base and shortstop. LaRoche led all NL first baseman in WAR. Ditto Desmond and shortstops. Bernadina put up a 114 wRC+ in a super-sub role, and accumulated +1.9 WAR in less than a half season of playing time. Between the three of them, they racked up +11.1 WAR, and were a huge part of why the Nationals finished the season with the best record in baseball.
The point is, and remains, that we just don’t know what’s going to happen next year, much less in the years that come after that. We can handicap the races a bit, and talk about likelihoods and projections, but we’re really just saying that a team looks like they could win between 70 and 90 games, or 80 and 100, depending on what kind of unpredictable things break their way. The Cubs are probably more in the 70 to 90 range. We shouldn’t expect them to contend simply because they signed Edwin Jackson.
But we should note that Edwin Jackson makes them better, and this price for Edwin Jackson is still completely reasonable based on his established performance level. That the Cubs aren’t yet obvious contenders shouldn’t cause us to tell them to stop trying to improve. By bringing in Jackson and Carlos Villanueva today, while already adding Scott Baker and Scott Feldman, the Cubs have now acquired four interesting starting pitchers this winter. They’ve rebuilt their entire rotation, essentially, and have set themselves up to be able to trade Matt Garza — after he proves he’s healthy, anyway — without it creating a huge problem for their Major League team. They did the same drastic overhaul of their rotation that the Twins and Royals went after this winter, just they did it without giving up useful Major League outfielders or top outfield prospects in the process.
The Cubs are a big market team. They needed to add talent to make any kind of serious playoff run in the future. They might not be ready to make that run in 2013, but they’ve given themselves a better chance to be a surprise team next year, and now they’ve solidified their rotation beyond next year with a quality pitcher at a decent price.
For Jackson, after years of getting traded and changing teams every year, he now has some security. And he has that security with a team that has made some big strides this winter, improving both their present and their future at the same time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Someone’s going to get a steal with Edwin Jackson, and given what he’s likely to do for the price he’s going to cost, the signing team should probably want to lock him in at these rates for the next few years. From Jackson’s perspective, he’s just been given a thorough rejection in his efforts to land a long term contract in a market where he should have been a pretty well sought after commodity, so he shouldn’t expect that posting another 200 inning season with a decent ERA will land him a raise next winter.
Guess what? Jackson posted another 200 inning season with a decent ERA and now he’s landing a huge raise, as the Cubs are reportedly set to sign him to a four year, $52 million contract.
On the one hand, it’s a little weird that Jackson could get a year older and pitch a little worse than he did in the prior year, and still see it result in 4/52 a winter after he settled for 1/11, but most of the weirdness is that he had to settle for 1/11 in the first place. Since Jackson’s breakout year with the Tigers in 2009, he’s thrown 812 innings and posted a 95/93/95 ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- line. Despite all the talk about his inconsistency, he’s given his teams 200 above average innings year in and year out, and his combination of effectiveness and health are a valuable package. Over the last four years, he’s been worth +14 WAR, regardless of whether you want to evaluate him by FIP or runs allowed.
In some ways, Jackson is the anti-Mark Buehrle, in that he has good stuff and a reputation for being inconsistent and losing his command of the strike zone. In other ways, though, Jackson is basically the same as Buehrle, as he gives you a reliable innings eater who can keep you in games but has enough deficiencies to fail the front-of-the-rotation starter test. Last year, at age 32, Buehrle signed a four year, $60 million contract. This is basically the market price for an above average innings sponge, and that’s exactly what Jackson is.
So, why would a rebuilding team like the Cubs want an above average innings sponge? Jeff Sullivan tackled that exact topic last week, when it was reported that they were on the verge of signing Anibal Sanchez. I’m just going to go ahead and quote him.
All right, we can still try to explain the Cubs’ interest. There are explanations for why this wouldn’t be so weird of a fit after all. We’ll begin just with the 2013 on-field product. There’s value in improving the team, even if the team doesn’t seem like a contender, because not only can contenders emerge by surprise, but fans simply respond better to a team that doesn’t suck so much. And with Sanchez, the 2013 Cubs might not suck so much. He’d join Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Scott Feldman, and Scott Baker as rotation candidates, and a pretty good rotation could be formed out of that group. The Cubs added Kyuji Fujikawa to the bullpen, and their run production could get a little better. With Sanchez, the 2013 Cubs could be a reasonable, respectable baseball team, and I’ll cite once more the 2012 Orioles and the 2012 Athletics. You never know.
The idea that bad-to-mediocre teams shouldn’t try to improve their clubs is just flat out wrong. We simply don’t know how to predict the future with enough accuracy to suggest that teams that don’t look like contenders should just lose on purpose. The marginal value of a win is higher for teams that are closer to contention, but it’s not zero for teams that are still working on stockpiling talent. And, when you have a chance to add a valuable player, that is stockpiling talent. Jackson wasn’t signed to a one year deal, and he’s not likely to turn into a useless waste of cash after this season. The Cubs just signed a quality starter for multiple years, and the truth about not being able to predict the future goes even more for years beyond the next one. We have no idea what the 2014 Cubs are going to look like, but it’s quite possible that their aggressive moves to improve this winter will have laid the foundation for them to make a run up the NL Central standings within the next couple of years.
After all, just last year, Jackson signed with a team that wasn’t necessarily expected to contend. When the Nationals signed Jackson, our lovable own poet Carson Cistulli wrote:
It’s possible that the Jackson signing represents an attempt on the part of Washington simply to not be mediocre. Or to be less mediocre. That’s a possible, if entirely uninspiring, explanation for the deal — because there’s value in being “just fine.” Furthermore, it’s possible that the Nationals see value in Jackson as a player either to flip for a decent prospect at the deadline, or from whom to gain a compensation pick in the 2013 draft after Jackson becomes a Type B free agent when the season is over.
For the Nationals to become actual contenders, though, at least one of the following three names will have to appear in fewer of manager Davey Johnson‘s lineups than is projected: Roger Bernadina, Ian Desmond, and Adam LaRoche.
It’s unlikely that any of those is an average major leaguer.
This is not to pick on Carson, but to point out that a year ago, it looked like the Nationals had big holes at first base and shortstop. LaRoche led all NL first baseman in WAR. Ditto Desmond and shortstops. Bernadina put up a 114 wRC+ in a super-sub role, and accumulated +1.9 WAR in less than a half season of playing time. Between the three of them, they racked up +11.1 WAR, and were a huge part of why the Nationals finished the season with the best record in baseball.
The point is, and remains, that we just don’t know what’s going to happen next year, much less in the years that come after that. We can handicap the races a bit, and talk about likelihoods and projections, but we’re really just saying that a team looks like they could win between 70 and 90 games, or 80 and 100, depending on what kind of unpredictable things break their way. The Cubs are probably more in the 70 to 90 range. We shouldn’t expect them to contend simply because they signed Edwin Jackson.
But we should note that Edwin Jackson makes them better, and this price for Edwin Jackson is still completely reasonable based on his established performance level. That the Cubs aren’t yet obvious contenders shouldn’t cause us to tell them to stop trying to improve. By bringing in Jackson and Carlos Villanueva today, while already adding Scott Baker and Scott Feldman, the Cubs have now acquired four interesting starting pitchers this winter. They’ve rebuilt their entire rotation, essentially, and have set themselves up to be able to trade Matt Garza — after he proves he’s healthy, anyway — without it creating a huge problem for their Major League team. They did the same drastic overhaul of their rotation that the Twins and Royals went after this winter, just they did it without giving up useful Major League outfielders or top outfield prospects in the process.
The Cubs are a big market team. They needed to add talent to make any kind of serious playoff run in the future. They might not be ready to make that run in 2013, but they’ve given themselves a better chance to be a surprise team next year, and now they’ve solidified their rotation beyond next year with a quality pitcher at a decent price.
For Jackson, after years of getting traded and changing teams every year, he now has some security. And he has that security with a team that has made some big strides this winter, improving both their present and their future at the same time.
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Adjusting to Josh Hamilton.
The easy thing is talking about what Josh Hamilton has done. For his career, he’s hit .304, with 161 dingers. Last year, his WAR was 4.4, and before that it was 4.1, and before that he won the American League MVP. Hamilton just signed a substantial contract with the Angels, and the season most relevant to the Angels during negotiations would’ve been Hamilton’s 2012. Hamilton started impossibly strong and cooled off, finishing with excellent numbers overall. If the Angels didn’t think Josh Hamilton is excellent, they wouldn’t have guaranteed him an eighth of a billion dollars.
The harder thing is talking about what Josh Hamilton will do, precisely because we don’t and can’t know. We can only try to guess, based on what we assume to be relevant information, and when talking about Hamilton’s future — which everybody’s tried to do — it seems worthwhile to take a closer look at those 2012 trends. For some time, Hamilton was practically impossible to pitch to. Then he became easy to pitch to, at least relative to the earlier version of himself. Random statistical fluctuation, or something the Angels ought to be thinking about?
It can be sloppy to divide a season at an arbitrary date, but it’s also extremely simple and you can still get a point across, if there’s a point to be made. Through the end of last May, Josh Hamilton had a 1.184 OPS. He struck out in 19% of his plate appearances. Over the remainder of the season, Hamilton posted an .809 OPS, and he struck out in 29% of his plate appearances. Hamilton started off as the greatest player in the world, and he finished getting booed by his own hometown fans as the Rangers somehow missed the playoffs. One wonders what might have changed. There’s not always something that changes when numbers behave in this way, but it’s not a bad idea to check.
I wondered how pitchers might have adjusted their approaches to Hamilton after Hamilton demonstrated that he could just hit dingers whenever he wanted to. See, a neat thing about pitching is you’re not locked into a concrete game plan. You can make changes, in anticipation or even on the fly. Given what Hamilton was doing toward the start last year, it would make sense if pitchers and catchers gave their plans a second thought. To examine, we turn first to the plate-discipline data:
Zone% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact%
Through May 36% 83% 43% 81% 54%
June on 38% 82% 42% 76% 47%
We don’t see anything in the first three columns of data. Pitchers threw roughly as many pitches in the strike zone, and Hamilton was swinging at the same locations, more or less. The last two columns are more interesting — Hamilton made less-frequent contact. At strikes and at balls. When it comes to investigating pitcher tendencies, what’s simpler than looking at raw fastball rate? Was Hamilton seeing fewer fastballs over the course of the year? Presented below is a graph, showing Hamilton’s rolling average fastball rate, based on 20-game samples:
That’s not necessarily very helpful, as we can identify relative maximums and relative minimums. But there does seem to be the hint of an overall drop as you move along the x-axis (Time). Hamilton’s fastball rate was already low; it only got lower. Let’s break this data down by handedness.
vs. RHP Fastball% Swing% Whiff% In Play%
Through May 55% 57% 29% 39%
June on 51% 58% 34% 27%
Against righties, Hamilton saw a reduced fastball rate, and an increased whiff rate. Fewer of his swings resulted in batted balls put in play (or hit for dingers).
vs. LHP Fastball% Swing% Whiff% In Play%
Through May 49% 65% 36% 33%
June on 43% 58% 44% 30%
Similar against lefties — fewer fastballs, more whiffs. The samples are smaller, of course, but still in the hundreds of pitches. Overall, combining righties and lefties, Hamilton’s rate of fastballs seen dropped from 53% to just under 49%. That’s small, and it might just be a consequence of Hamilton getting into more deep and/or pitcher-friendly counts, but it could be meaningful. It would help to have the Rangers’ overall rates of fastballs seen, for the sake of comparison.
There’s something else we can look at pretty easily, and it’s first pitches. Hamilton is a free swinger, and he’s not afraid to go after the first pitch of an at-bat. Against righties, Hamilton’s first-pitch fastball rate dropped from 60% to 52% after May. Against lefties, it dropped from 60% to 47% after May. These differences feel more substantial, and suggest that pitchers were trying to counter Hamilton’s aggressiveness. Interestingly, against lefties, Hamilton’s first-pitch swing rate dropped from 68% to 49% after May. The samples are limited, but Hamilton calmed himself down.
The data indicates that Josh Hamilton saw fewer fastballs last season after his torrid stretch of productivity. That should hardly come as a surprise, yet Hamilton’s initial fastball rate was already very low. Overall, Hamilton saw 50% fastballs. Out of 1,685 player seasons since 2002, Hamilton in 2012 had the sixth-lowest fastball rate. The lowest we’ve measured is 47%, for 2009 Ryan Howard. Hamilton was near an extreme.
Hamilton saw fewer fastballs, and fewer first-pitch fastballs, and his numbers got worse and his strikeouts went up. It will be interesting to see if this continues, to see if Hamilton sees even fewer fastballs still going forward. In that event, it will be interesting to see how Hamilton responds, to see if he can deal with it and continue to produce at a high level like the Angels expect. Last season, Hamilton didn’t stop swinging, and he missed more and more. If pitchers are aware of that, then it’s Hamilton who’s going to have to make the adjustments. The Angels, clearly, figure he’ll be fine. And, maybe, he will be.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The harder thing is talking about what Josh Hamilton will do, precisely because we don’t and can’t know. We can only try to guess, based on what we assume to be relevant information, and when talking about Hamilton’s future — which everybody’s tried to do — it seems worthwhile to take a closer look at those 2012 trends. For some time, Hamilton was practically impossible to pitch to. Then he became easy to pitch to, at least relative to the earlier version of himself. Random statistical fluctuation, or something the Angels ought to be thinking about?
It can be sloppy to divide a season at an arbitrary date, but it’s also extremely simple and you can still get a point across, if there’s a point to be made. Through the end of last May, Josh Hamilton had a 1.184 OPS. He struck out in 19% of his plate appearances. Over the remainder of the season, Hamilton posted an .809 OPS, and he struck out in 29% of his plate appearances. Hamilton started off as the greatest player in the world, and he finished getting booed by his own hometown fans as the Rangers somehow missed the playoffs. One wonders what might have changed. There’s not always something that changes when numbers behave in this way, but it’s not a bad idea to check.
I wondered how pitchers might have adjusted their approaches to Hamilton after Hamilton demonstrated that he could just hit dingers whenever he wanted to. See, a neat thing about pitching is you’re not locked into a concrete game plan. You can make changes, in anticipation or even on the fly. Given what Hamilton was doing toward the start last year, it would make sense if pitchers and catchers gave their plans a second thought. To examine, we turn first to the plate-discipline data:
Zone% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact%
Through May 36% 83% 43% 81% 54%
June on 38% 82% 42% 76% 47%
We don’t see anything in the first three columns of data. Pitchers threw roughly as many pitches in the strike zone, and Hamilton was swinging at the same locations, more or less. The last two columns are more interesting — Hamilton made less-frequent contact. At strikes and at balls. When it comes to investigating pitcher tendencies, what’s simpler than looking at raw fastball rate? Was Hamilton seeing fewer fastballs over the course of the year? Presented below is a graph, showing Hamilton’s rolling average fastball rate, based on 20-game samples:
That’s not necessarily very helpful, as we can identify relative maximums and relative minimums. But there does seem to be the hint of an overall drop as you move along the x-axis (Time). Hamilton’s fastball rate was already low; it only got lower. Let’s break this data down by handedness.
vs. RHP Fastball% Swing% Whiff% In Play%
Through May 55% 57% 29% 39%
June on 51% 58% 34% 27%
Against righties, Hamilton saw a reduced fastball rate, and an increased whiff rate. Fewer of his swings resulted in batted balls put in play (or hit for dingers).
vs. LHP Fastball% Swing% Whiff% In Play%
Through May 49% 65% 36% 33%
June on 43% 58% 44% 30%
Similar against lefties — fewer fastballs, more whiffs. The samples are smaller, of course, but still in the hundreds of pitches. Overall, combining righties and lefties, Hamilton’s rate of fastballs seen dropped from 53% to just under 49%. That’s small, and it might just be a consequence of Hamilton getting into more deep and/or pitcher-friendly counts, but it could be meaningful. It would help to have the Rangers’ overall rates of fastballs seen, for the sake of comparison.
There’s something else we can look at pretty easily, and it’s first pitches. Hamilton is a free swinger, and he’s not afraid to go after the first pitch of an at-bat. Against righties, Hamilton’s first-pitch fastball rate dropped from 60% to 52% after May. Against lefties, it dropped from 60% to 47% after May. These differences feel more substantial, and suggest that pitchers were trying to counter Hamilton’s aggressiveness. Interestingly, against lefties, Hamilton’s first-pitch swing rate dropped from 68% to 49% after May. The samples are limited, but Hamilton calmed himself down.
The data indicates that Josh Hamilton saw fewer fastballs last season after his torrid stretch of productivity. That should hardly come as a surprise, yet Hamilton’s initial fastball rate was already very low. Overall, Hamilton saw 50% fastballs. Out of 1,685 player seasons since 2002, Hamilton in 2012 had the sixth-lowest fastball rate. The lowest we’ve measured is 47%, for 2009 Ryan Howard. Hamilton was near an extreme.
Hamilton saw fewer fastballs, and fewer first-pitch fastballs, and his numbers got worse and his strikeouts went up. It will be interesting to see if this continues, to see if Hamilton sees even fewer fastballs still going forward. In that event, it will be interesting to see how Hamilton responds, to see if he can deal with it and continue to produce at a high level like the Angels expect. Last season, Hamilton didn’t stop swinging, and he missed more and more. If pitchers are aware of that, then it’s Hamilton who’s going to have to make the adjustments. The Angels, clearly, figure he’ll be fine. And, maybe, he will be.
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- Jun 10, 2004
i think he played every position at some point with the Reds except first, pitcher, and catcher. i need to see if I still have that old highlight video of him I made.
he had two daughters.
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New MLB batting practice caps, via UniWatch:
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/fandom/post/_/id/16228/first-look-new-mlb-batting-practice-caps
"The new caps have no silly stretch panels and no extraneous design."
Some are major improvements:
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/fandom/post/_/id/16228/first-look-new-mlb-batting-practice-caps
"The new caps have no silly stretch panels and no extraneous design."
Some are major improvements:
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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Lovin the new A's BP hat. Previous one was :x.
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