White Sox's window of contention.
Indians' window of contention.
Tigers' window of contention.
Royals' window of contention.
Twins' window of contention.
Chicago White Sox
Optimal year of contention: 2013
Overview
Whether the White Sox have a better chance to win it all in 2013 or 2014 really depends a lot on how they replace the two key free agents, Paul Konerko and Gavin Floyd, who could leave after the season. They have the resources to upgrade in free agency, whether it's re-signing either or signing a replacement. Since there are no guarantees in free agency, I'll take my chances with the 2013 version, a team just one season removed from 85 wins and a second-place finish.
The road to a playoff spot in the AL Central doesn't get much easier with the Tigers still a force and the Royals on the rise, but the White Sox have a solid rotation led by talented lefty Chris Sale, a deep bullpen and an offense that was seventh in the majors in runs scored in 2012. There aren't any impact prospects on the way in the immediate future, which is why their window could close for a few seasons after 2013.
Extension candidates
Chris Sale, LHP (eligible for free agency after 2016): Fellow lefties Brett Anderson and Jon Lester were locked up to long-term deals before reaching arbitration and after one full season as a big league starter. Sale was equally impressive, if not more, in his first year as a starter. Anderson received four years and $12.5 million with two club options worth $20 million from Oakland. Lester received five years and $30.5 million with a $13 million club option from Boston. The 23-year-old Sale should surpass Lester's deal, and I'll go out on a limb and say a fair extension for Sale could end up valuing close to the total of both deals combined. How about five years and $43 million with two club options worth $33 million?
CWS payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $101M (2)
2014 $71M (6)
2015 $30M
2016 $15M
2017 $0M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Addison Reed, RHP (2017): The offseason after he saved 30 games and posted a 3.55 ERA, the White Sox gave Sergio Santos a pre-arbitration extension for three years and $8.25 million with three club options valued at $22.75 million. Then they traded him, knowing that Reed was on the fast track to the majors. The 24-year-old Reed saved 29 games and posted a 4.75 ERA during his rookie season of 2012. While there several young power arms in the organization, Reed looks like the answer to close games long-term.
Alejandro De Aza, CF (2015): Leadoff men who can get on base at a .349 clip, steal 26 bases and provide some pop (44 extra-base hits) are few and far between. De Aza will be heading into his age 32 season when he reaches free agency so he doesn't have a ton of leverage. Considering he wasn't a big league regular until late in his career, he'd probably be ecstatic with a four-year, $24 million extension that includes a club option for his age 33 season.
Weaknesses
Remember how Sale was briefly moved to the bullpen after just five starts because of a "slightly tender elbow?" He convinced the organization that he was fine and returned to starting after just one relief appearance. There were no other issues but it still has to be at least a minor concern. Jake Peavy averaged just over 100 innings per season between 2009-2011 due to various ailments. John Danks missed most of 2012 with a shoulder injury and underwent season-ending arthroscopic surgery in August. Floyd went on the disabled list twice in 2012 with elbow ailments. Concerned a little, White Sox fans? You should be. Those are your top four starters. Jose Quintana had a surprisingly good rookie year filling in and Hector Santiago could do the same if called upon in 2013. If both are in the 2013 rotation, however, it will be very tough to keep up with the Tigers.
Potential free-agent targets
Now that I've identified the concern with rotation health, maybe it's not such a bad idea to jump into the Kyle Lohse sweepstakes. And while they're at it, how about considering free agent Michael Bourn as an upgrade to Dayan Viciedo in the outfield? Viciedo crushes left-handed pitching and struggles against right-handers. Unfortunately, there are a lot more right-handed pitchers in the league. OK, I just solved all their problems. Lohse solidifies the rotation. Bourn upgrades the outfield defense and top of the lineup. Bring on the Tigers!
Trade bait
The farm system is improving but still isn't filled with a ton of future major league talent. What they do have, though, is a lot of athletic outfielders with upside. Prospects Trayce Thompson, Keenyn Walker, and Jared Mitchell are all expected to start the season in the upper minors, and Courtney Hawkins, the 13th pick in the 2012 draft, will likely play with high Class A Winston-Salem. They'll be able to deal from that area of strength if they're looking to add at the trade deadline. A major leaguer who could be dealt in-season is Gordon Beckham, an OBP-challenged second baseman who has some value because of his power (16 homers in 2012).
Waiting in the wings
I wouldn't expect a full youth movement in Chicago in the coming years. Instead, they're in a position to graduate a couple prospects to the big leagues in each of the next few seasons, starting with second baseman Carlos Sanchez and starting pitcher Andre Rienzo in 2014, two players who started the season in high-A and finished one step away from the big leagues in Triple-A.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Carlos Sanchez, 2B (2014); Courtney Hawkins, OF (2015); Trayce Thompson, OF (2015); Keenyn Walker, OF (2016); Erik Johnson, RHP (2015); Andre Rienzo, RHP (2014); Scott Snodgress, LHP (2015)
Optimal year of contention: 2013
Overview
Whether the White Sox have a better chance to win it all in 2013 or 2014 really depends a lot on how they replace the two key free agents, Paul Konerko and Gavin Floyd, who could leave after the season. They have the resources to upgrade in free agency, whether it's re-signing either or signing a replacement. Since there are no guarantees in free agency, I'll take my chances with the 2013 version, a team just one season removed from 85 wins and a second-place finish.
The road to a playoff spot in the AL Central doesn't get much easier with the Tigers still a force and the Royals on the rise, but the White Sox have a solid rotation led by talented lefty Chris Sale, a deep bullpen and an offense that was seventh in the majors in runs scored in 2012. There aren't any impact prospects on the way in the immediate future, which is why their window could close for a few seasons after 2013.
Extension candidates
Chris Sale, LHP (eligible for free agency after 2016): Fellow lefties Brett Anderson and Jon Lester were locked up to long-term deals before reaching arbitration and after one full season as a big league starter. Sale was equally impressive, if not more, in his first year as a starter. Anderson received four years and $12.5 million with two club options worth $20 million from Oakland. Lester received five years and $30.5 million with a $13 million club option from Boston. The 23-year-old Sale should surpass Lester's deal, and I'll go out on a limb and say a fair extension for Sale could end up valuing close to the total of both deals combined. How about five years and $43 million with two club options worth $33 million?
CWS payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $101M (2)
2014 $71M (6)
2015 $30M
2016 $15M
2017 $0M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Addison Reed, RHP (2017): The offseason after he saved 30 games and posted a 3.55 ERA, the White Sox gave Sergio Santos a pre-arbitration extension for three years and $8.25 million with three club options valued at $22.75 million. Then they traded him, knowing that Reed was on the fast track to the majors. The 24-year-old Reed saved 29 games and posted a 4.75 ERA during his rookie season of 2012. While there several young power arms in the organization, Reed looks like the answer to close games long-term.
Alejandro De Aza, CF (2015): Leadoff men who can get on base at a .349 clip, steal 26 bases and provide some pop (44 extra-base hits) are few and far between. De Aza will be heading into his age 32 season when he reaches free agency so he doesn't have a ton of leverage. Considering he wasn't a big league regular until late in his career, he'd probably be ecstatic with a four-year, $24 million extension that includes a club option for his age 33 season.
Weaknesses
Remember how Sale was briefly moved to the bullpen after just five starts because of a "slightly tender elbow?" He convinced the organization that he was fine and returned to starting after just one relief appearance. There were no other issues but it still has to be at least a minor concern. Jake Peavy averaged just over 100 innings per season between 2009-2011 due to various ailments. John Danks missed most of 2012 with a shoulder injury and underwent season-ending arthroscopic surgery in August. Floyd went on the disabled list twice in 2012 with elbow ailments. Concerned a little, White Sox fans? You should be. Those are your top four starters. Jose Quintana had a surprisingly good rookie year filling in and Hector Santiago could do the same if called upon in 2013. If both are in the 2013 rotation, however, it will be very tough to keep up with the Tigers.
Potential free-agent targets
Now that I've identified the concern with rotation health, maybe it's not such a bad idea to jump into the Kyle Lohse sweepstakes. And while they're at it, how about considering free agent Michael Bourn as an upgrade to Dayan Viciedo in the outfield? Viciedo crushes left-handed pitching and struggles against right-handers. Unfortunately, there are a lot more right-handed pitchers in the league. OK, I just solved all their problems. Lohse solidifies the rotation. Bourn upgrades the outfield defense and top of the lineup. Bring on the Tigers!
Trade bait
The farm system is improving but still isn't filled with a ton of future major league talent. What they do have, though, is a lot of athletic outfielders with upside. Prospects Trayce Thompson, Keenyn Walker, and Jared Mitchell are all expected to start the season in the upper minors, and Courtney Hawkins, the 13th pick in the 2012 draft, will likely play with high Class A Winston-Salem. They'll be able to deal from that area of strength if they're looking to add at the trade deadline. A major leaguer who could be dealt in-season is Gordon Beckham, an OBP-challenged second baseman who has some value because of his power (16 homers in 2012).
Waiting in the wings
I wouldn't expect a full youth movement in Chicago in the coming years. Instead, they're in a position to graduate a couple prospects to the big leagues in each of the next few seasons, starting with second baseman Carlos Sanchez and starting pitcher Andre Rienzo in 2014, two players who started the season in high-A and finished one step away from the big leagues in Triple-A.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Carlos Sanchez, 2B (2014); Courtney Hawkins, OF (2015); Trayce Thompson, OF (2015); Keenyn Walker, OF (2016); Erik Johnson, RHP (2015); Andre Rienzo, RHP (2014); Scott Snodgress, LHP (2015)
Indians' window of contention.
Cleveland Indians
Optimal year of contention: 2016
Overview
It was a promising first half of baseball for the Indians. Heading into the All-Star break, they were three games over .500 and only three games behind the first-place White Sox in the AL Central. A disastrous 24-53 second half followed, however, costing manager Manny Acta his job a week before the end of the season.
New manager Terry Francona has been the team's biggest acquisition this offseason, although the additions of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds to the lineup and Brett Myers to the rotation should help. Swisher replaces Shin-Soo Choo, who was traded to the Reds in a three-team trade that landed the Indians a pitching prospect, Trevor Bauer, who could be the team's future ace.
GM Chris Antonetti also made it a point to acquire some much-needed right-handed hitters to balance out a left-handed-heavy lineup. In addition to Reynolds, Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes were acquired from Toronto, and Drew Stubbs came over from Cincinnati. When it comes down to it, though, any exceeding of expectations in Cleveland will likely come down to the team's top starters, Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, actually pitching like they belong at the front of a rotation. Jimenez hasn't been that guy since 2010. Masterson appeared to be headed down that road after a strong 2011 season before regressing last year.
Extension candidates
Jason Kipnis, 2B (eligible for free agency after 2017): The 25-year-old struggled in the second half of his first full big league season (.650 OPS) and couldn't hit lefties at all (.580 OPS), yet showed why he could be one of the top offensive second basemen in the American League by clubbing 14 home runs and stealing 31 bases. If he can jump into the 20-homer and 40-stolen base categories, that's when he'll start to get real expensive. Extending him because he has the potential to reach those numbers before he actually reaches those numbers will be much cheaper, but obviously more risky.
CLE payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $41M (7)
2014 $30M (11)
2015 $21M
2016 $23M
2017 $1M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Michael Brantley, OF (2016): He's a solid performer who puts up average numbers across the board and can play all three outfield spots, but his value is limited if he's playing in an outfield corner due to a lack of home run power. With Drew Stubbs in the mix, the 25-year-old Brantley likely moves back to left field for the next season or two. That might be a good time to sign him to a very team-friendly contract that buys out his arbitration years and possibly includes a club option or two.
Weaknesses
Not knowing what you're going to get out of your top starters counts as a major weakness. The Indians also don't know what they're getting out of Carlos Carrasco, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, or if Bauer will be able to make much of an impact as a rookie in 2013. Zach McAllister might have been their most reliable starter in 2012 and his ERA was over 5.00 in his last 12 starts. Even Myers, who was pretty consistent throughout his career as a starting pitcher, is a bit of a question mark after spending the entire 2012 season in the bullpen.
Potential free-agent targets
I can envision a potential 2016 lineup that includes Carlos Santana behind the plate, Swisher at first base, Kipnis at second base, Francisco Lindor at shortstop, and Lonnie Chisenhall at third base. There are a few decent outfield prospects in the system, but I suppose they could be looking to add a big bat for the middle of the order as they enter their window for contention. Some of the more intriguing names that could become free agents after the 2015 season: Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Nick Markakis, and Justin Upton. If Francona has the Tribe heading in the right direction, Cleveland wouldn't be a bad destination, though a couple of those guys could be out of their price range.
Trade bait
If Jimenez and/or Masterson fail to turn things around in 2013, the Indians could give up hope and trade one or both to a team who thinks they can help turn them around. Unfortunately, they wouldn't be getting back much in return for a struggling veteran. A better scenario has them pitching well, the Indians falling out of the playoff race anyway, and then they'd be traded for something of value.
Other names that could surface in trade rumors if the team falls out of the race are Asdrubal Cabrera, who was reportedly part of trade talks this offseason, and closer Chris Perez. Aviles could then serve as a stopgap at shortstop until Lindor is ready, while Vinnie Pestano could step into the closer's role. A Cleveland team in playoff contention could look to upgrade its 25-man roster by shopping one of its many infield prospects not named Lindor.
Waiting in the wings
The clear-cut jewel of the farm system is Lindor, a switch-hitting 19-year-old who will provide plus defense at shortstop and enough offense to make him a perennial All-Star once he's been in the majors for a year or two. He has a clear path to Cleveland once Cabrera becomes a free agent after the 2014 season. Dorssys Paulino, 18, and Ronny Rodriguez, 20, also very talented shortstop prospects, will eventually settle into new positions (or become trade bait) as they move closer to the majors.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Dorssys Paulino, SS (2016); Ronny Rodriguez, SS (2015); Francisco Lindor, SS (2015); Luigi Rodriguez, OF (2016); Trevor Bauer, RHP (2013); Mitch Brown, RHP (2016); Danny Salazar, RHP (2014)
Optimal year of contention: 2016
Overview
It was a promising first half of baseball for the Indians. Heading into the All-Star break, they were three games over .500 and only three games behind the first-place White Sox in the AL Central. A disastrous 24-53 second half followed, however, costing manager Manny Acta his job a week before the end of the season.
New manager Terry Francona has been the team's biggest acquisition this offseason, although the additions of Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds to the lineup and Brett Myers to the rotation should help. Swisher replaces Shin-Soo Choo, who was traded to the Reds in a three-team trade that landed the Indians a pitching prospect, Trevor Bauer, who could be the team's future ace.
GM Chris Antonetti also made it a point to acquire some much-needed right-handed hitters to balance out a left-handed-heavy lineup. In addition to Reynolds, Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes were acquired from Toronto, and Drew Stubbs came over from Cincinnati. When it comes down to it, though, any exceeding of expectations in Cleveland will likely come down to the team's top starters, Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, actually pitching like they belong at the front of a rotation. Jimenez hasn't been that guy since 2010. Masterson appeared to be headed down that road after a strong 2011 season before regressing last year.
Extension candidates
Jason Kipnis, 2B (eligible for free agency after 2017): The 25-year-old struggled in the second half of his first full big league season (.650 OPS) and couldn't hit lefties at all (.580 OPS), yet showed why he could be one of the top offensive second basemen in the American League by clubbing 14 home runs and stealing 31 bases. If he can jump into the 20-homer and 40-stolen base categories, that's when he'll start to get real expensive. Extending him because he has the potential to reach those numbers before he actually reaches those numbers will be much cheaper, but obviously more risky.
CLE payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $41M (7)
2014 $30M (11)
2015 $21M
2016 $23M
2017 $1M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Michael Brantley, OF (2016): He's a solid performer who puts up average numbers across the board and can play all three outfield spots, but his value is limited if he's playing in an outfield corner due to a lack of home run power. With Drew Stubbs in the mix, the 25-year-old Brantley likely moves back to left field for the next season or two. That might be a good time to sign him to a very team-friendly contract that buys out his arbitration years and possibly includes a club option or two.
Weaknesses
Not knowing what you're going to get out of your top starters counts as a major weakness. The Indians also don't know what they're getting out of Carlos Carrasco, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, or if Bauer will be able to make much of an impact as a rookie in 2013. Zach McAllister might have been their most reliable starter in 2012 and his ERA was over 5.00 in his last 12 starts. Even Myers, who was pretty consistent throughout his career as a starting pitcher, is a bit of a question mark after spending the entire 2012 season in the bullpen.
Potential free-agent targets
I can envision a potential 2016 lineup that includes Carlos Santana behind the plate, Swisher at first base, Kipnis at second base, Francisco Lindor at shortstop, and Lonnie Chisenhall at third base. There are a few decent outfield prospects in the system, but I suppose they could be looking to add a big bat for the middle of the order as they enter their window for contention. Some of the more intriguing names that could become free agents after the 2015 season: Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Nick Markakis, and Justin Upton. If Francona has the Tribe heading in the right direction, Cleveland wouldn't be a bad destination, though a couple of those guys could be out of their price range.
Trade bait
If Jimenez and/or Masterson fail to turn things around in 2013, the Indians could give up hope and trade one or both to a team who thinks they can help turn them around. Unfortunately, they wouldn't be getting back much in return for a struggling veteran. A better scenario has them pitching well, the Indians falling out of the playoff race anyway, and then they'd be traded for something of value.
Other names that could surface in trade rumors if the team falls out of the race are Asdrubal Cabrera, who was reportedly part of trade talks this offseason, and closer Chris Perez. Aviles could then serve as a stopgap at shortstop until Lindor is ready, while Vinnie Pestano could step into the closer's role. A Cleveland team in playoff contention could look to upgrade its 25-man roster by shopping one of its many infield prospects not named Lindor.
Waiting in the wings
The clear-cut jewel of the farm system is Lindor, a switch-hitting 19-year-old who will provide plus defense at shortstop and enough offense to make him a perennial All-Star once he's been in the majors for a year or two. He has a clear path to Cleveland once Cabrera becomes a free agent after the 2014 season. Dorssys Paulino, 18, and Ronny Rodriguez, 20, also very talented shortstop prospects, will eventually settle into new positions (or become trade bait) as they move closer to the majors.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Dorssys Paulino, SS (2016); Ronny Rodriguez, SS (2015); Francisco Lindor, SS (2015); Luigi Rodriguez, OF (2016); Trevor Bauer, RHP (2013); Mitch Brown, RHP (2016); Danny Salazar, RHP (2014)
Tigers' window of contention.
Detroit Tigers
Optimal year of contention: 2013
Overview
The Tigers were sleepwalking through most of the regular season before snapping out of it just in time to overtake the White Sox in late September, and then stayed on a roll through the first two rounds of the playoffs before getting swept by the Giants in the World Series.
Maybe it's the wake-up call they needed in order to take it up a notch in 2013. They definitely have the overall talent to leave their division rivals in the dust by mid-August, and the starting rotation to beat any team in a playoff series. Right fielder Torii Hunter was signed to a two-year deal, giving the team a veteran clubhouse leader who can still play at age 37. Designated hitter Victor Martinez returns after missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL. They'll also have a full season with Anibal Sanchez in their rotation after he was re-signed to a five-year, $80 million deal. And as was the case in 2012, they have young prospects ready to make an impact when called upon.
Extension candidates
Justin Verlander, RHP (eligible for free agency after 2014): He still has two years and $40 million left on a five-year, $79.5 million deal signed before the 2010 season. Over the course of the deal, he's been, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball with a 59-22 record, 2.79 ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per nine in 100 starts. A six-year extension through his age 37 season at $25 million per season might be just a starting point in order to keep him in Detroit.
DET payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $119M (7)
2014 $107M (9)
2015 $62M
2016 $40M
2017 $40M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Austin Jackson, CF (2015): At age 25 and in his third season as a big leaguer, Jackson showed that he had become a complete player who offers Gold Glove-caliber defense, hits for average (.300), gets on base (.377 OBP) and hits for power (55 extra-base hits). Andrew McCutchen's six-year, $51 million contract extension might be a good comp for what a Jackson extension might cost the Tigers.
Doug Fister, RHP (2015): One of the more underrated starters in baseball, Fister won't command as much as Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, but a similar deal to what Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia received during his first year of arbitration (four years, $27.5 million, plus two club options worth a total of $23.5 million) might work.
Max Scherzer, RHP (2014): The 28-year-old may have entered the class of elite starters in the majors after winning 16 games with a 3.74 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 32 starts in 2012. On most teams, he's the No. 1 starter, and he'll soon be paid like one. The Tigers must decide if they can extend both Scherzer and Verlander to what would be massive contracts that exceed what Sanchez already received this offseason.
Weaknesses
As closer Jose Valverde fell apart in the playoffs, the Tigers' chances to advance to the World Series nearly did, too. Valverde is now a free agent, and the team has failed to address the void this offseason. Instead, the Tigers are indicating 22-year-old prospect Bruce Rondon, who has 29 2/3 innings of experience in the upper minors, will be their next closer. The potential is certainly there -- he can reportedly hit 102 mph on the radar gun and has shown improved control over the past year -- but a World Series contender relying on a rookie with limited success in the minors to pitch with the game on the line seems a bit far-fetched.
They do have a deep bullpen with several power arms capable of closing out games to fall back on, and several Latin American relievers to help make Rondon's transition to the big leagues as comfortable as possible. One thing is for certain: Hitters won't be comfortable at the plate with him on the mound, though it could be in a Mitch Williams kind of way.
Potential free-agent targets
Former Giants closer Brian Wilson is still looking for work and trying to convince teams he'll be as good as ever after missing most of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery. If he starts the season on the disabled list and spends 3-4 weeks on a rehab assignment, the Tigers will know a lot more about Rondon's readiness by the time Wilson is ready to contribute. Francisco Rodriguez is also available, and could be an option.
Trade bait
Rick Porcello's name has been floating around in trade rumors since Sanchez re-signed. Lefty Drew Smyly is ready to make an impact and might even beat out Porcello for a rotation spot, anyway. Employing six good starters is almost a necessity these days, so I wouldn't expect a deal unless the Tigers get a very good return for Porcello. Nick Castellanos, the team's top prospect, is who every team will ask about if the Tigers call around looking to upgrade their 25-man roster. Castellanos is blocked by AL MVP Miguel Cabrera at third base, his natural position, and is seeing reps in the outfield as a way of creating a path to the bigs.
Waiting in the wings
Andy Dirks will get a much-deserved chance to play regularly in left field for the Tigers, while prospects Castellanos and Avisail Garcia, both candidates to take over the regular job in 2014 if Dirks falters, continue to work on their overall game in the upper minors. Garcia already showed what he can do as a part-time player in the majors in 2012. With a few months of regular at-bats in the minors, he should be sharp when called upon in that role once again.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF (2014); Avisail Garcia, OF (2013); Bruce Rondon, RHP (2013); Casey Crosby, LHP (2014)
Optimal year of contention: 2013
Overview
The Tigers were sleepwalking through most of the regular season before snapping out of it just in time to overtake the White Sox in late September, and then stayed on a roll through the first two rounds of the playoffs before getting swept by the Giants in the World Series.
Maybe it's the wake-up call they needed in order to take it up a notch in 2013. They definitely have the overall talent to leave their division rivals in the dust by mid-August, and the starting rotation to beat any team in a playoff series. Right fielder Torii Hunter was signed to a two-year deal, giving the team a veteran clubhouse leader who can still play at age 37. Designated hitter Victor Martinez returns after missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL. They'll also have a full season with Anibal Sanchez in their rotation after he was re-signed to a five-year, $80 million deal. And as was the case in 2012, they have young prospects ready to make an impact when called upon.
Extension candidates
Justin Verlander, RHP (eligible for free agency after 2014): He still has two years and $40 million left on a five-year, $79.5 million deal signed before the 2010 season. Over the course of the deal, he's been, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball with a 59-22 record, 2.79 ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per nine in 100 starts. A six-year extension through his age 37 season at $25 million per season might be just a starting point in order to keep him in Detroit.
DET payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $119M (7)
2014 $107M (9)
2015 $62M
2016 $40M
2017 $40M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Austin Jackson, CF (2015): At age 25 and in his third season as a big leaguer, Jackson showed that he had become a complete player who offers Gold Glove-caliber defense, hits for average (.300), gets on base (.377 OBP) and hits for power (55 extra-base hits). Andrew McCutchen's six-year, $51 million contract extension might be a good comp for what a Jackson extension might cost the Tigers.
Doug Fister, RHP (2015): One of the more underrated starters in baseball, Fister won't command as much as Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, but a similar deal to what Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia received during his first year of arbitration (four years, $27.5 million, plus two club options worth a total of $23.5 million) might work.
Max Scherzer, RHP (2014): The 28-year-old may have entered the class of elite starters in the majors after winning 16 games with a 3.74 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in 32 starts in 2012. On most teams, he's the No. 1 starter, and he'll soon be paid like one. The Tigers must decide if they can extend both Scherzer and Verlander to what would be massive contracts that exceed what Sanchez already received this offseason.
Weaknesses
As closer Jose Valverde fell apart in the playoffs, the Tigers' chances to advance to the World Series nearly did, too. Valverde is now a free agent, and the team has failed to address the void this offseason. Instead, the Tigers are indicating 22-year-old prospect Bruce Rondon, who has 29 2/3 innings of experience in the upper minors, will be their next closer. The potential is certainly there -- he can reportedly hit 102 mph on the radar gun and has shown improved control over the past year -- but a World Series contender relying on a rookie with limited success in the minors to pitch with the game on the line seems a bit far-fetched.
They do have a deep bullpen with several power arms capable of closing out games to fall back on, and several Latin American relievers to help make Rondon's transition to the big leagues as comfortable as possible. One thing is for certain: Hitters won't be comfortable at the plate with him on the mound, though it could be in a Mitch Williams kind of way.
Potential free-agent targets
Former Giants closer Brian Wilson is still looking for work and trying to convince teams he'll be as good as ever after missing most of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery. If he starts the season on the disabled list and spends 3-4 weeks on a rehab assignment, the Tigers will know a lot more about Rondon's readiness by the time Wilson is ready to contribute. Francisco Rodriguez is also available, and could be an option.
Trade bait
Rick Porcello's name has been floating around in trade rumors since Sanchez re-signed. Lefty Drew Smyly is ready to make an impact and might even beat out Porcello for a rotation spot, anyway. Employing six good starters is almost a necessity these days, so I wouldn't expect a deal unless the Tigers get a very good return for Porcello. Nick Castellanos, the team's top prospect, is who every team will ask about if the Tigers call around looking to upgrade their 25-man roster. Castellanos is blocked by AL MVP Miguel Cabrera at third base, his natural position, and is seeing reps in the outfield as a way of creating a path to the bigs.
Waiting in the wings
Andy Dirks will get a much-deserved chance to play regularly in left field for the Tigers, while prospects Castellanos and Avisail Garcia, both candidates to take over the regular job in 2014 if Dirks falters, continue to work on their overall game in the upper minors. Garcia already showed what he can do as a part-time player in the majors in 2012. With a few months of regular at-bats in the minors, he should be sharp when called upon in that role once again.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF (2014); Avisail Garcia, OF (2013); Bruce Rondon, RHP (2013); Casey Crosby, LHP (2014)
Royals' window of contention.
Kansas City Royals
Optimal year of contention: 2015
Overview
The way the Royals are operating this offseason, you'd think they were all in for 2013. They traded away two of their best prospects in a deal for a pair of starting pitchers, James Shields and Wade Davis, who can help the team win now. They re-signed veteran Jeremy Guthrie after a successful two-month stint with the team to finish the season, and they acquired Ervin Santana and most of his $13 million salary in hopes that he can return to his pre-2012 form.
I wouldn't count this team out, especially if the Tigers have another less-than-inspiring regular season. The lineup has the potential to be very good and the bullpen is already stellar. A more realistic climb would have the Royals going from 72 wins in 2012 to 85 in 2013. A 90-win season and possible playoff berth would be the next step in 2014. Led by a team of talented veterans still in their prime, the Royals could then make a serious run at a World Series title in 2015.
Extension candidates
Eric Hosmer, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2017): Hosmer has too much talent not to rebound from his sophomore slump. The Royals know this. Hosmer knows this. Everyone knows this. So if the Royals can give catcher Salvador Perez a contract extension -- albeit a very team-friendly one -- after just 39 big league games, then it's not a stretch to think the 23-year-old Hosmer could get one that buys out what will likely be four arbitration years starting next offseason, and possibly tacking on two club options. The problem is that Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, who rarely allows his players to take those kinds of deals, preferring to wait for free agency no matter what.
KC payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $67M (2)
2014 $40M (11)
2015 $27M
2016 $2M
2017 $0M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Mike Moustakas, 3B (2017): After a huge first half in which he posted an .817 OPS with 15 homers, Moustakas ran out of gas in the second half (.586 OPS). But a solid defender at the hot corner who can hit 15 homers in the span of three months is going to get paid eventually. Might as well do it now while the team still has some leverage.
James Shields, RHP (2013): Barring a catastrophic season, Shields will have his $13.5 million club option picked up for the 2014 season and then he can bolt as a free agent. Two years of Shields probably won't seem like enough if Wil Myers becomes the power-hitting force he's expected to become in Tampa Bay. So extending the 31-year-old for another three seasons at around $42 million could take some of that misery away from Royals fans.
Weaknesses
A lineup with Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, and Myers would've been fun to watch, but it loses luster when you take out Myers, who hit 37 home runs between Triple-A and Double-A last season, and insert Jeff Francoeur, a great guy who had a very unproductive season in 2012, into the right-field spot. If he doesn't bounce back, there doesn't seem to be anyone else ready to step in and take his job, and the club's offense won't be as dangerous as it could have been.
Potential free-agent targets
If 2015 is the year to target, signing Shields to an extension would be a great starting point. Guthrie will be in the last year of his current deal in 2014; Kyle Zimmer, last year's first-round draft pick, should already have plenty of big league seasoning; and Danny Duffy, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, will likely be part of the rotation. The rest of the team should remain intact, with years of experience and possibly a couple winning seasons under their belt. One more top-of-the-rotation starter and a right fielder to help Royals fans forget about Myers, and this team could do some things. It's unlikely the Royals will go after the elite free agents, like Felix Hernandez, but how about Brandon McCarthy, assuming he stays healthy over the next two seasons, or Homer Bailey?
Trade bait
There's a pretty good chance that the Royals' starting pitching depth will be very strong heading into next offseason. Duffy and Felipe Paulino, both recovering from Tommy John surgery, are both expected back sometime in the second half. Pitching prospect John Lamb, who appeared to be on the fast track before Tommy John surgery cost him most of the past two seasons, is back, and could be on the rise once again by season's end. Zimmer and hard-throwing Yordano Ventura are close. If the Royals wanted to find an upgrade next season in right field, or maybe even second base, they still have the pieces to go out and acquire an impact player.
Waiting in the wings
With Myers out of the picture, there won't be any more position players knocking on the door to the majors for several years. Center fielder Bubba Starling, the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft, has five-tool potential, but is very raw and not anywhere close to reaching his potential. Shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, who was playing in the rookie-level Pioneer League as a 16-year-old last season, has the pedigree -- he's Raul Mondesi's son -- to go along with the talent and baseball instincts needed to move quickly, but he's still a few years away. Third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert and outfielder Jorge Bonifacio also have huge potential, but are also a long way from reaching it.
That is not the case with Zimmer, a near major league-ready starting pitcher taken with the fifth overall pick in the 2012 draft. The 21-year-old will likely start the season in High A and finish in Double-A or Triple-A with an early-season call-up in 2014 a strong possibility.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B (2015); Adalberto Mondesi, SS (2016); Jorge Bonifacio, OF (2015); Bubba Starling, OF (2016); Yordano Ventura, RHP (2014); Kyle Zimmer, RHP (2014); John Lamb, LHP (2014)
Optimal year of contention: 2015
Overview
The way the Royals are operating this offseason, you'd think they were all in for 2013. They traded away two of their best prospects in a deal for a pair of starting pitchers, James Shields and Wade Davis, who can help the team win now. They re-signed veteran Jeremy Guthrie after a successful two-month stint with the team to finish the season, and they acquired Ervin Santana and most of his $13 million salary in hopes that he can return to his pre-2012 form.
I wouldn't count this team out, especially if the Tigers have another less-than-inspiring regular season. The lineup has the potential to be very good and the bullpen is already stellar. A more realistic climb would have the Royals going from 72 wins in 2012 to 85 in 2013. A 90-win season and possible playoff berth would be the next step in 2014. Led by a team of talented veterans still in their prime, the Royals could then make a serious run at a World Series title in 2015.
Extension candidates
Eric Hosmer, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2017): Hosmer has too much talent not to rebound from his sophomore slump. The Royals know this. Hosmer knows this. Everyone knows this. So if the Royals can give catcher Salvador Perez a contract extension -- albeit a very team-friendly one -- after just 39 big league games, then it's not a stretch to think the 23-year-old Hosmer could get one that buys out what will likely be four arbitration years starting next offseason, and possibly tacking on two club options. The problem is that Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, who rarely allows his players to take those kinds of deals, preferring to wait for free agency no matter what.
KC payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $67M (2)
2014 $40M (11)
2015 $27M
2016 $2M
2017 $0M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Mike Moustakas, 3B (2017): After a huge first half in which he posted an .817 OPS with 15 homers, Moustakas ran out of gas in the second half (.586 OPS). But a solid defender at the hot corner who can hit 15 homers in the span of three months is going to get paid eventually. Might as well do it now while the team still has some leverage.
James Shields, RHP (2013): Barring a catastrophic season, Shields will have his $13.5 million club option picked up for the 2014 season and then he can bolt as a free agent. Two years of Shields probably won't seem like enough if Wil Myers becomes the power-hitting force he's expected to become in Tampa Bay. So extending the 31-year-old for another three seasons at around $42 million could take some of that misery away from Royals fans.
Weaknesses
A lineup with Billy Butler, Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez, and Myers would've been fun to watch, but it loses luster when you take out Myers, who hit 37 home runs between Triple-A and Double-A last season, and insert Jeff Francoeur, a great guy who had a very unproductive season in 2012, into the right-field spot. If he doesn't bounce back, there doesn't seem to be anyone else ready to step in and take his job, and the club's offense won't be as dangerous as it could have been.
Potential free-agent targets
If 2015 is the year to target, signing Shields to an extension would be a great starting point. Guthrie will be in the last year of his current deal in 2014; Kyle Zimmer, last year's first-round draft pick, should already have plenty of big league seasoning; and Danny Duffy, who is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, will likely be part of the rotation. The rest of the team should remain intact, with years of experience and possibly a couple winning seasons under their belt. One more top-of-the-rotation starter and a right fielder to help Royals fans forget about Myers, and this team could do some things. It's unlikely the Royals will go after the elite free agents, like Felix Hernandez, but how about Brandon McCarthy, assuming he stays healthy over the next two seasons, or Homer Bailey?
Trade bait
There's a pretty good chance that the Royals' starting pitching depth will be very strong heading into next offseason. Duffy and Felipe Paulino, both recovering from Tommy John surgery, are both expected back sometime in the second half. Pitching prospect John Lamb, who appeared to be on the fast track before Tommy John surgery cost him most of the past two seasons, is back, and could be on the rise once again by season's end. Zimmer and hard-throwing Yordano Ventura are close. If the Royals wanted to find an upgrade next season in right field, or maybe even second base, they still have the pieces to go out and acquire an impact player.
Waiting in the wings
With Myers out of the picture, there won't be any more position players knocking on the door to the majors for several years. Center fielder Bubba Starling, the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft, has five-tool potential, but is very raw and not anywhere close to reaching his potential. Shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, who was playing in the rookie-level Pioneer League as a 16-year-old last season, has the pedigree -- he's Raul Mondesi's son -- to go along with the talent and baseball instincts needed to move quickly, but he's still a few years away. Third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert and outfielder Jorge Bonifacio also have huge potential, but are also a long way from reaching it.
That is not the case with Zimmer, a near major league-ready starting pitcher taken with the fifth overall pick in the 2012 draft. The 21-year-old will likely start the season in High A and finish in Double-A or Triple-A with an early-season call-up in 2014 a strong possibility.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B (2015); Adalberto Mondesi, SS (2016); Jorge Bonifacio, OF (2015); Bubba Starling, OF (2016); Yordano Ventura, RHP (2014); Kyle Zimmer, RHP (2014); John Lamb, LHP (2014)
Twins' window of contention.
Minnesota Twins
Optimal year of contention: 2016
Overview
The Twins have been busy this offseason, dealing from an area of strength (center field) to acquire some young power arms, which has definitely been an area of weakness. Denard Span was traded to the Nationals for prospect Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9 right-hander who can throw in the mid-90's. Ben Revere was traded to the Phillies for Vance Worley, who immediately steps in as one of their top two starters, and prospect Trevor May, who also throws in the mid-90's. Both May and Meyer could reach Minnesota at some point in 2014.
Considering the state of the Twins' pitching staff going into the offseason and the team's reputation for stocking its farm system with pitchers that have good command and little upside, this is a nice change. Overall, the farm system is in very good shape. The big league club could suffer through another bad season or two, but could be back to its winning ways soon.
Extension candidates
Scott Diamond, LHP (eligible for free agency after 2017): Just because he was the Twins' best starter in 2012 and will likely start on Opening Day this season doesn't make him a No. 1 starter. (Or even a No. 3 starter, at least in terms of dollar value.) The 26-year-old is a very good back-of-the-rotation starter on a good team, which still won't result in a huge payday. Some financial security would be great for Diamond and some back-of-the-rotation stability would be great for the Twins as they look to fill holes at the top of their rotation.
MIN payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $64M (2)
2014 $46M (7)
2015 $27M
2016 $23M
2017 $23M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Vance Worley, RHP (2017): Much of what was said about Diamond also applies to Worley. He's not as good as the 3.01 ERA he posted as a rookie in 2011, but he could provide some solid innings for a few years at a reasonable price. Unlike Diamond, he's a Super Two, so he'll hit arbitration a year earlier even though they'll hit the free-agent market at the same time.
Weaknesses
Take your pick. The rotation will probably be better than last year with the additions of Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey, but not close to being good enough to compete in the AL Central. The bullpen has two pretty good arms, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, to pitch in the late innings, and a lot of question marks as to who will bridge the gap to them. As for the lineup, Darin Mastroianni could be the starting center fielder. He looks pretty good as a fourth outfielder, not so much as a starter. The middle infield could consist of 38-year-old Jamey Carroll and Pedro Florimon. Help is on the way, but it won't be in Minnesota soon enough. The Twins could have a tough time improving on their 66-win total from 2012.
Potential free-agent targets
By the time the Twins are ready to win, the roster could be filled with some of the big-time prospects down on the farm right now. What that group lacks is a surefire middle infield prospect -- which could change if the team finds one in the next couple of drafts -- but let's assume that will be the weakness if we look three years ahead. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia and shortstop Ian Desmond could be the biggest names on the free-agent market, though it's hard to imagine they don't get extended by their clubs. The Twins could find some bargains, however, with veterans who might have enough left in the tank despite likely exiting their prime years. Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Rickie Weeks would fit into that category.
Trade bait
On a few different occasions in 2012, Justin Morneau actually resembled the guy who won the AL MVP award in 2006 and was an AL All-Star the ensuing four seasons. He started strong, posting an .865 OPS with 9 homers in his first 124 at-bats of the season before slumping badly in June. The 31-year-old followed with two more strong months, and then another slump in September. That makes four really good months with the two bad months dropping his OPS to a less-than-impressive .773 on the season. Maybe the Twins weren't shopping him this offseason, or maybe teams in need of first base help weren't totally convinced that he's back to form after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. Things were all quiet on the trade front this offseason. That won't be the case if he puts together a few more productive months before the trade deadline.
Waiting in the wings
Third baseman Miguel Sano might have the best raw power in the minors, and he hit 28 homers for low Class A Beloit last year. However, his future is probably at first base or in an outfield corner. The trades of Span and Revere give Aaron Hicks a wide open path to the center field job. Manager Ron Gardenhire recently told GM Terry Ryan he wants the 23-year-old to have a legitimate chance to win the job out of spring training. A 2008 first-round pick, Hicks had a terrific season with Double-A New Britain (.844 OPS, 13 homers, 32 steals). Once he gets to Minnesota, he could have another rookie with him in the outfield. Oswaldo Arcia, who had a .928 OPS between high Class A and Double-A last season, could get a look early in the season if Chris Parmelee struggles in right field.
The Twins nabbed multi-dimensional outfielder Byron Buxton with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, and will add another top talent with the No. 3 selection in June.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Miguel Sano, 3B (2015); Oswaldo Arcia, OF (2013); Byron Buxton, CF (2016); Aaron Hicks, CF (2013); Kyle Gibson, RHP (2013); Trevor May, RHP (2014); Alex Meyer, RHP (2014)
Optimal year of contention: 2016
Overview
The Twins have been busy this offseason, dealing from an area of strength (center field) to acquire some young power arms, which has definitely been an area of weakness. Denard Span was traded to the Nationals for prospect Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9 right-hander who can throw in the mid-90's. Ben Revere was traded to the Phillies for Vance Worley, who immediately steps in as one of their top two starters, and prospect Trevor May, who also throws in the mid-90's. Both May and Meyer could reach Minnesota at some point in 2014.
Considering the state of the Twins' pitching staff going into the offseason and the team's reputation for stocking its farm system with pitchers that have good command and little upside, this is a nice change. Overall, the farm system is in very good shape. The big league club could suffer through another bad season or two, but could be back to its winning ways soon.
Extension candidates
Scott Diamond, LHP (eligible for free agency after 2017): Just because he was the Twins' best starter in 2012 and will likely start on Opening Day this season doesn't make him a No. 1 starter. (Or even a No. 3 starter, at least in terms of dollar value.) The 26-year-old is a very good back-of-the-rotation starter on a good team, which still won't result in a huge payday. Some financial security would be great for Diamond and some back-of-the-rotation stability would be great for the Twins as they look to fill holes at the top of their rotation.
MIN payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons (as of 1/17/13), with the number of arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.
YEAR GS
2013 $64M (2)
2014 $46M (7)
2015 $27M
2016 $23M
2017 $23M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Vance Worley, RHP (2017): Much of what was said about Diamond also applies to Worley. He's not as good as the 3.01 ERA he posted as a rookie in 2011, but he could provide some solid innings for a few years at a reasonable price. Unlike Diamond, he's a Super Two, so he'll hit arbitration a year earlier even though they'll hit the free-agent market at the same time.
Weaknesses
Take your pick. The rotation will probably be better than last year with the additions of Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey, but not close to being good enough to compete in the AL Central. The bullpen has two pretty good arms, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, to pitch in the late innings, and a lot of question marks as to who will bridge the gap to them. As for the lineup, Darin Mastroianni could be the starting center fielder. He looks pretty good as a fourth outfielder, not so much as a starter. The middle infield could consist of 38-year-old Jamey Carroll and Pedro Florimon. Help is on the way, but it won't be in Minnesota soon enough. The Twins could have a tough time improving on their 66-win total from 2012.
Potential free-agent targets
By the time the Twins are ready to win, the roster could be filled with some of the big-time prospects down on the farm right now. What that group lacks is a surefire middle infield prospect -- which could change if the team finds one in the next couple of drafts -- but let's assume that will be the weakness if we look three years ahead. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia and shortstop Ian Desmond could be the biggest names on the free-agent market, though it's hard to imagine they don't get extended by their clubs. The Twins could find some bargains, however, with veterans who might have enough left in the tank despite likely exiting their prime years. Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Rickie Weeks would fit into that category.
Trade bait
On a few different occasions in 2012, Justin Morneau actually resembled the guy who won the AL MVP award in 2006 and was an AL All-Star the ensuing four seasons. He started strong, posting an .865 OPS with 9 homers in his first 124 at-bats of the season before slumping badly in June. The 31-year-old followed with two more strong months, and then another slump in September. That makes four really good months with the two bad months dropping his OPS to a less-than-impressive .773 on the season. Maybe the Twins weren't shopping him this offseason, or maybe teams in need of first base help weren't totally convinced that he's back to form after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. Things were all quiet on the trade front this offseason. That won't be the case if he puts together a few more productive months before the trade deadline.
Waiting in the wings
Third baseman Miguel Sano might have the best raw power in the minors, and he hit 28 homers for low Class A Beloit last year. However, his future is probably at first base or in an outfield corner. The trades of Span and Revere give Aaron Hicks a wide open path to the center field job. Manager Ron Gardenhire recently told GM Terry Ryan he wants the 23-year-old to have a legitimate chance to win the job out of spring training. A 2008 first-round pick, Hicks had a terrific season with Double-A New Britain (.844 OPS, 13 homers, 32 steals). Once he gets to Minnesota, he could have another rookie with him in the outfield. Oswaldo Arcia, who had a .928 OPS between high Class A and Double-A last season, could get a look early in the season if Chris Parmelee struggles in right field.
The Twins nabbed multi-dimensional outfielder Byron Buxton with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, and will add another top talent with the No. 3 selection in June.
Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Miguel Sano, 3B (2015); Oswaldo Arcia, OF (2013); Byron Buxton, CF (2016); Aaron Hicks, CF (2013); Kyle Gibson, RHP (2013); Trevor May, RHP (2014); Alex Meyer, RHP (2014)
, and must have already exhausted his rookie of the year eligibility. So players like Jurickson Profar and Dylan Bundy don't qualify -- they'll appear on my top 100 prospects rankings in early February -- while players like Mike Minor and Mat Latos just barely missed the age cutoff.
