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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions. - Page 413

post #12361 of 77278
With all the hate for BJ Upton in this thread, I'd just like to share that the Rays got the 29th pick for losing him haha
post #12362 of 77278
BJ heard you guys and is starting to turn it around with his bat.

Props to Greg Walker as well.
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post #12363 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proshares View Post

Framing the Hitters.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
All anyone can talk about these days, some of the time, is the matter of pitch-framing. It’s a concept we’ve been vaguely aware of since childhood, or since whenever we started paying attention to baseball, but for a while it was one of those things we ignored because we didn’t know how to measure it. Then some people started to measure it, and it seemed to make a big difference sometimes, and that’s exciting, and people got excited. People remain excited, since framing is a new field and it’s fascinating to learn how some catchers can do it while other catchers struggle. It’s a very small part of the game overall, but it still has that new-stat scent, and evidence suggests at the extremes it’s pretty significant. I’m thankful for the advances in pitch-framing research.

When people talk about framing, or receiving, though, they talk mainly about the catchers. That’s fine, the catchers are most responsible. They’ll talk a little about the pitchers, and that’s fine too, because catchers need the pitchers’ help. It’s hard to frame a pitch thrown to the opposite side of the plate. But good framing has victims, and worse framing has beneficiaries. The pitchers are affected but the batters are affected too, and it stands to reason framing isn’t completely independent of the guy in the box. Batters probably have some effect, so those batters are worth investigating. Which batters end up with the most extra strikes? Which batters end up with the fewest?


I’ll tell you right now: when I’ve looked at this before, I’ve discovered the obvious. There’s variation among the batters, but there’s more variation among the pitchers and the catchers. Batters have only a little to do with the way pitches are called. But as long as we’re investigating a small part of the game, we might as well investigate a small part of a small part of the game, because where do we stop? Why should we stop? It’s perfectly fine to learn for learning’s sake.

This explanation again. I don’t know how many times I’ve gone over Diff/1000 on FanGraphs, but I might as well do it once more. Diff/1000 is a stat I made up. It uses stats available here at FanGraphs — strikes, pitches, Zone%, O-Swing%, and Swing%. Using the plate-discipline data, we can calculate a number of expected strikes (Zone + O-Swing). We can then subtract that from the number of actual strikes, and put that on a per-1000-called-pitches basis. Then we can adjust it to set the league average to zero. For hitters, a positive Diff/1000 means they’ve had more strikes called against them than you’d expect. A negative Diff/1000 suggests a smaller zone. One of these days, you’ll all be familiar with this and I won’t have to keep going over this same summary.

I calculated Diff/1000 for all batters in 2011 and 2012. I looked only at the batters who faced at least 1,000 pitches in each season. The resulting correlation is 0.48, which suggests that we’re measuring something real. A total of 215 batters were investigated. Here’s a table of quintiles, which should also be informative:

Quintile 2011 Diff 2012 Diff
Group 1 25 9
Group 2 10 7
Group 3 0 1
Group 4 -9 -10
Group 5 -26 -14

The top 20% in Diff/1000 in 2011 saw an average of 25 extra strikes per 1,000 called pitches. The next season, they came in at +9. The bottom 20% came in at -26 and -14, respectively. It’s apparent that there’s regression, but it’s also apparent the regression isn’t 100%. Something is going on, here, that has at least something to do with the guy with the bat.

That’s all background. What’s most interesting right now is data for the current regular season. Which hitters have seen the most extra strikes, and which have seen the fewest? I’ve prepared a couple top-10 tables, and we’ll start with the unfortunate hitters. These hitters have seen a higher rate of strikes than you’d expect based on the rest of their numbers.

Name Pitches Diff/1000
Marwin Gonzalez 527 52
Jean Segura 886 51
Clint Barmes 562 50
Yuniesky Betancourt 688 48
Will Middlebrooks 763 48
Michael Bourn 578 45
Paul Goldschmidt 1071 45
Brendan Ryan 618 43
Ian Desmond 832 40
Marcell Ozuna 522 39

Obviously, it’s far from a death sentence. Goldschmidt’s been amazing. Segura’s been amazing. Bourn’s been good. This has only a little to do with overall productivity. But it isn’t irrelevant. Here’s the other side of the leaderboard:

Name Pitches Diff/1000
Andre Ethier 818 -65
Chris Iannetta 728 -51
Alexei Ramirez 771 -44
Carl Crawford 728 -42
Tyler Flowers 541 -41
Nick Punto 659 -39
Miguel Montero 848 -38
Dayan Viciedo 558 -38
Ike Davis 777 -36
Adrian Gonzalez 799 -36

Ethier’s been pretty bad. Davis has been pretty bad. Montero has been pretty bad. Getting extra strikes doesn’t make you bad, and getting extra balls doesn’t make you good. But still, it’s of interest to explore the extremes, those being Ethier and Gonzalez.

Thanks to Texas Leaguers, we can check out their respective 2013 called strike zones:

ethierzone.png

gonzalezzone.png

That’s Ethier on top and Gonzalez on bottom. You might have to stare for a while to see the differences, but the numbers above say they’re there. According to StatCorner, pitches taken in the zone by Ethier have gone for balls 23% of the time, and pitches taken out of the zone have gone for strikes 6% of the time. Pitches taken in the zone by Gonzalez have gone for balls 11% of the time, and pitches taken out of the zone have gone for strikes 10% of the time. Differences exist, although I’m not entirely certain why. A couple batting screenshots:

ethierstance.png
gonzalezstance.png

don’t yet understand why some hitters get bigger zones and some hitters get smaller zones. It might entirely have to do with a combination of batter height and unbalanced scheduling against various catchers. One notices that there are four Dodgers in the lower table above. One notices that the season is only a third of the way over, and these numbers could look very different at the end. There will be regression and shuffling and the final tables will say different things. But no matter the effect a hitter actually has, some hitters do end up with too many strikes, and some end up with too few. It matters only some, and not a lot, but that’s never stopped us from discussing something before. How many articles have there been about optimized lineup construction?

See, it’s not that Andre Ethier’s been unlucky. It’s that he hasn’t been lucky enough.



Let me know if you guys can see the images in this post.

 

I can't see any of the spoilers right now. But what did BJ Upton do though?

I like things that most people haven't or won't come accross. That's what makes me...ME!!!!  happy.gif
 

 

 

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I like things that most people haven't or won't come accross. That's what makes me...ME!!!!  happy.gif
 

 

 

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post #12364 of 77278
Arod will still play with the Yankees they can't void his contact bc of steroid allegations or if he gets suspended. Lucky guy.
post #12365 of 77278
Dom & Granderson Feasting on short porches

laugh.gif

It's all an illusion.

anyone have a Vid of the Puig Throw ? NM, found it
Edited by GUNNA GET IT - 6/6/13 at 2:07pm
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post #12366 of 77278

Video

 

 

puig_debut_dp_2013-06-03.gif

post #12367 of 77278
Quote:
Dom & Granderson Feasting on short porches

laugh.gif

It's all an illusion.
Same with a gang of Astros.
post #12368 of 77278
Thnx FreddieB.


True! Kev.


Nationals' Bryce Harper to meet with Dr. James Andrews
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Washington National star Bryce Harper is going to see famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews, Washington Post beat reporter Adam Kilgore reported on his Twitter feed Thursday afternoon.

While nothing is certain, of course, going to see Dr. Andrews rarely leads to good short-term news for baseball players. Kilgore reports that the swelling in Harper’s left knee hasn’t gone down, and the team wants an outside opinion. This is another jolt of bad news in a season that was supposed to be memorable—for good reasons—in our nation’s capital.
Bryce Harper is on the disabled list because of bursitis in his left knee. (AP Photo)

But with the team muddling around .500 and eight full games behind the Atlanta Braves in the N.L. East entering play Thursday, it’s been memorable for the wrong reasons. Ace Stephen Strasburg landed on the 15-day disabled on Wednesday with a lat strain after leaving his start against the Braves last week after just two innings.

The Nationals have struggled offensively, hitting just .230 as a team. Harper, the team’s 20-year-old budding superstar, has been the most consistent producer—he has 12 homers and a .287/.386/.587 slash line—when he’s been in the lineup. But multiple unrelated injuries have limited him to just 44 of Washington’s first 59 games.

If Harper has to miss a significant amount of time—and, again, that’s not been determined—the Nationals might be staring at a significant deficit in the division when the All-Star break rolls around.
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post #12369 of 77278
James Andrews' name strikes fear in the heart of passionate sports fans.

Someone find madj in a dive bar self-medicating.
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post #12370 of 77278

mean.gif can't catch a break

post #12371 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik View Post

James Andrews' name strikes fear in the heart of passionate sports fans.

Someone find madj in a dive bar self-medicating.
When you think things can't get any worse, they do tired.gif sometimes it's just not your year...
post #12372 of 77278
post #12373 of 77278
That is the best news I've heard all day. Let's go ahead and have Bryant slip to five.
post #12374 of 77278

Haven't been around for the B.J. Upton slander but I see it daily on other sports message boards....people saying how he wasn't worth the money, the move was a fail, etc etc. How in the hell can a sample size of around 8% be a fail. The season needs to play out before we can even start discussing his worth, and even then, it's a bit pre-mature given this is year 1 of 5. Let's relax a little before we crown him as the next Nate McClouth*. The BJ Upton signing brought us Justin Upton AND Chris Johnson. When's the last time you heard anyone say the phrase, "they miss Chipper Jones"? I surely haven't and I've watched all but 3 Braves games this season. Of course we miss Chipper, but Johnson's play as exceeded ALL expectations in replacing #10 at 3B. So what if our big contract is under-performing when our smaller contracts (Johnson, Pena, Schaffer, and the man-beast EL OSO BLANCO) are all over-achieving. 8 game lead on ESPN's love child Nationals, we're good right now. 

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post #12375 of 77278
Thank you for the BJ Upton backup.

Not to mention he's only 28 and motivated playing alongside his younger brother, who was taking to start the season.
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post #12376 of 77278
the problem is, BJ is being overpaid even if he is putting up his Usual numbers.

but thats an overall epidemic in Baseball.
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post #12377 of 77278
Fair enough. Add Greinke to the list.

A-Rod the worst offender.
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post #12378 of 77278
Albert and Josh as well.
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post #12379 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by GUNNA GET IT View Post

the problem is, BJ is being overpaid even if he is putting up his Usual numbers.

but thats an overall epidemic in Baseball.

 

I blame the Yankees for all of baseball's problems lol. 

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post #12380 of 77278
That's why I respect the Tampa and Texas way so much more.

Develop a plethora of young arms. Pitching depth is a serious weapon.

The offense will come from the Kelly Johnson's and James Loney's of the world.
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post #12381 of 77278

Did someone say MLB's fiscal irresponsibility...... 

 

 

 

 

 

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post #12382 of 77278
Mo Vaughn was a good signing...said no one ever.
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post #12383 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik View Post

That's why I respect the Tampa and Texas way so much more.

Develop a plethora of young arms. Pitching depth is a serious weapon.

The offense will come from the Kelly Johnson's and James Loney's of the world.

 

Can't talk farms and stables w/o mentioning the Braves. 

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post #12384 of 77278
Texas and Tampa for AL. Probably could add Oakland as well.

Atlanta and St. Louis for NL. Probably could add Cincy as well.
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post #12385 of 77278
Wait, Puig threw him out from the warning track?
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post #12386 of 77278
Never saw the big deal with gray. Now Kris Bryant on the other hand.. hopefully giants pick up my boy Krook. Got five to six friends that will get drafted. Big pay day for one of them.
post #12387 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik View Post

Mo Vaughn was a good signing...said no one ever.

Said the dancers at The Foxy Lady
post #12388 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by Th3RealF0lkBlu3s View Post

Wait, Puig threw him out from the warning track?

While moving to his left and letting loose a frozen rope off-balance, no less. pimp.gif

 

Kid's got a (Cuban) missile.

post #12389 of 77278
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampCruThik View Post

Mo Vaughn was a good signing...said no one ever.

 

roll.gif

 

Cant see Bryant getting past the Cubbies...Praying Austin Meadows falls to #12, though.

post #12390 of 77278
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