2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

champcruthik · May 19, 2011

Actually helped my fantasy team

game-winning RBI for Crawford and Papelbon with the win!
Neftali Feliz looking shaky in back-to-back save opportunities.

champcruthik · May 19, 2011

Actually helped my fantasy team

game-winning RBI for Crawford and Papelbon with the win!
Neftali Feliz looking shaky in back-to-back save opportunities.

dland24 · May 19, 2011

Should have had a Jed Lowrie RBI single to win the game, but that moron Iglesias was tagging up on a blooper.

dland24 · May 19, 2011

Should have had a Jed Lowrie RBI single to win the game, but that moron Iglesias was tagging up on a blooper.

proshares · May 20, 2011

What's wrong with Feliz?

Spoiler [+]

Last night, Neftali Feliz blew his second save of the season, giving up a run to the Royals in the ninth inning of a game that the Rangers would eventually go on to lose in extra innings. Because the run he allowed was charged to Derek Holland, his ERA actually fell to 1.26, so on the surface, it would seem like there’s not much to worry about.

Once you put ERA aside, however, it’s clear that not all is right with the Ranger’s closer. His BB/9 has jumped from 2.34 last year to 7.53 this year, and perhaps more worryingly, his K/9 has plummeted – he’s struck out just eight of the 62 batters he’s faced this year. Feliz is a power pitcher who succeeds by throwing the ball past hitters, and right now, he’s just not doing that.

However, diagnosing the cause of Feliz’s problems is somewhat complicated, because, well, just look at this:

Vs LHBs: 2.79 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 39.1% GB%, 3.47 xFIP
Vs RHBs: 17.36 BB/9, 0.00 K/9, 29.1% GB%, 10.40 xFIP

That is not a typo. Feliz, a right-handed pitcher, has been his normal self against left-handed bats so far this year. His numbers are right in line with what he did against them the past two years. However, he’s faced 27 right-handed batters so far this year and has failed to strike out a single one – this after striking out 27% of the RHBs he’d faced over the past two seasons. He’s already issued more walks vs RHBs this year (nine) than he did all of last year (eight).

Generally, when a power pitcher goes south in a hurry, velocity is the first place to look. In Feliz’s case, his velocity has been down a bit this year (average fastball of 95.1 MPH this season compared to 96.3 MPH last year), but that doesn’t appear to be the culprit as he proved emphatically last night. In blowing the save against Kansas City, Feliz threw nothing but fastballs – 32 of them in all, averaging 97.4 MPH and topping out at 100 MPH. It didn’t matter. He got four swinging strikes on his 32 fastballs, but only one of those was from a right-handed batter, Mike Aviles, who ended up getting a base hit off Feliz anyway.

So, why has Feliz lost the ability to strikeout right-handed batters? To be honest, I don’t know. Looking at his heat maps for his fastball, the location doesn’t seem to be significantly different. He’s still pounding the upper part of the strike zone and pitching them mostly away. He doesn’t appear to be centering his fastball any more than he has in previous years. That doesn’t mean it’s not a location issue, but at the least, it’s not an obvious location issue.

So, let’s look at movement. His fastball does appear to be somewhat straighter this year – here’s two graphs of his horizontal movement, the first from 2011 and the second from 2010:

However, while there is a difference in horizontal movement, it’s not clear to me why this would only manifest itself against right-handed batters. Opposite-handed hitters should be whacking a predictably straight fastball as well, but they’re not – his problems have exclusively been against righties.

Usually, I’d like to propose some kind of theory as to what might be going wrong, but I honestly have no idea. It’s only 27 batters, so we could chalk it up to small sample size, but the odds of a guy with his kind of stuff and previous dominance facing 27 same-handed hitters without notching a single strikeout are very long. There’s something going on here – I just don’t know what it is yet.

Feliz is a guy we’ll have to keep an eye on. I’m sure the Rangers are just as curious about this as we are.

Bautista's leap.

Spoiler [+]

As long as Jose Bautista continues to hit like this it is our duty to write articles in his honor. Earlier in the week Dave Cameron analyzed how much of a bargain Bautista’s 5 yr/$65 mil extension with the Blue Jays will represent even if he sustains just a semblance of his current performance. Dave also offered up a pu pu platter of statistical nuggets summarizing Jose’s nutty season. Today I’ll look at where Bautista’s rise to superstardom ranks historically to answer the titular question.

We all know the man can hit. In just 35 games he has 4.0 WAR to his name, slashing .360/.509/.816 and with 16 home runs in the process. His rest of season ZiPS projection is .267/.388/.567, which is better than most players are hitting right now. Seriously, his regression-riddled wOBA for the rest of the season is .419 — only six players currently boast a mark greater than that.

Everything about his turnaround defies logic. This isn’t the case of an upper echelon prospect like Brandon Wood figuring something out. Bautista was always patient at the plate and played decent defense, but he was the epitome of a player whose value was linked directly to his team-controlled status. He was a stopgap solution, a non-tender candidate, not a stud in the making. He wasn’t going to make $65 million in his entire career, and now that amount over five years is considered a massive bargain. But is his drastic improvement unprecedented? In the annals of baseball history, has anyone ever improved as much and as quickly?

My first thought was to run a straight year-to-year comparison to see if anyone has experienced an uptick like Bautista’s, but I remembered that his improvement actually began at the end of the 2009 season. In September 2009, he hit .257/.339/.606, skewing his seasonal numbers. Though he produced 1.9 WAR on the whole, some significant portion of that had to be attributable to the power surge that month. Jumping from 1.9 WAR to 6.9 WAR is incredibly impressive, but the former number isn’t entirely indicative of his talent level prior to the mechanical changes he implemented.

To that end I decided to average his 2008-09 numbers and use that figure as the comparative basis. Bautista averaged 1.2 WAR from 2008-09 (0.4 in 2008, 1.9 in 2009). The jump from between replacement level and below average player to best-hitter-in-the-game is much more remarkable. To better model his improvement, however, the question was not one of how often a player improved by five or more wins above replacement level, but rather how frequently a player at, or below, Bautista’s prior talent level improved in a similar fashion.

Stipulating that the player had to tally at least 400 plate appearances in the two initial seasons being averaged, there were 841 players with a WAR average of no greater than 1.2 since 1960 who played at least one more season. Here are the biggest improvements from that average to the third season of the span:

Bret Boone (1999-2001): 0.3 WAR in 1999-00, 7.8 WAR in 2001
Dale Murphy (1978-1980): 0.1 WAR in 1978-79, 6.0 WAR in 1980
Jose Bautista (2008-2010): 1.2 WAR in 2008-09, 6.9 WAR in 2010
Cristian Guzman (1999-2001): -1.6 WAR in 1999-00, 3.9 WAR in 2001
Lloyd Moseby (1981-1983): 1.0 WAR in 1981-82, 6.2 WAR in 1983

Murphy’s first two full seasons were 1978 and 1979, so his improvement was more in line with natural development as a youngster. The same can be said of Guzman, whose first two seasons came in 1999 and 2000, and Moseby, whose second and third seasons came in 1981 and 1982. Of the top five, only Boone makes sense as a comparable situation, as both players were around 30 years old when they broke out, and each had a decent season or two in his past.

Moving further down the top fifteen improvements, another comparable player emerges: Leo Cardenas (1967-69), who averaged 0.9 WAR in 1967-68, and tallied six wins the next year. A few other players stood out, such as Joe Carter, Steve Finley and Dave Parker, but each of them had already produced a few all-star level campaigns. They were known to be solid players and were re-establishing themselves as all-stars.

Boone seems like the best comparable overall, as he averaged close to six wins above replacement from 2001-03 after several average or below average seasons.

Is Bautista’s meteoric rise to stardom unprecedented? No, not exactly, at least when the question is examined like this. What might be unprecedented is his improvement on the aforementioned improvement, assuming he finishes at around 10-11 WAR this season. This has the makings of an historic season, folks. Let’s not allow the terms “regression

proshares · May 20, 2011

What's wrong with Feliz?

Spoiler [+]

Last night, Neftali Feliz blew his second save of the season, giving up a run to the Royals in the ninth inning of a game that the Rangers would eventually go on to lose in extra innings. Because the run he allowed was charged to Derek Holland, his ERA actually fell to 1.26, so on the surface, it would seem like there’s not much to worry about.

Once you put ERA aside, however, it’s clear that not all is right with the Ranger’s closer. His BB/9 has jumped from 2.34 last year to 7.53 this year, and perhaps more worryingly, his K/9 has plummeted – he’s struck out just eight of the 62 batters he’s faced this year. Feliz is a power pitcher who succeeds by throwing the ball past hitters, and right now, he’s just not doing that.

However, diagnosing the cause of Feliz’s problems is somewhat complicated, because, well, just look at this:

Vs LHBs: 2.79 BB/9, 7.45 K/9, 39.1% GB%, 3.47 xFIP
Vs RHBs: 17.36 BB/9, 0.00 K/9, 29.1% GB%, 10.40 xFIP

That is not a typo. Feliz, a right-handed pitcher, has been his normal self against left-handed bats so far this year. His numbers are right in line with what he did against them the past two years. However, he’s faced 27 right-handed batters so far this year and has failed to strike out a single one – this after striking out 27% of the RHBs he’d faced over the past two seasons. He’s already issued more walks vs RHBs this year (nine) than he did all of last year (eight).

Generally, when a power pitcher goes south in a hurry, velocity is the first place to look. In Feliz’s case, his velocity has been down a bit this year (average fastball of 95.1 MPH this season compared to 96.3 MPH last year), but that doesn’t appear to be the culprit as he proved emphatically last night. In blowing the save against Kansas City, Feliz threw nothing but fastballs – 32 of them in all, averaging 97.4 MPH and topping out at 100 MPH. It didn’t matter. He got four swinging strikes on his 32 fastballs, but only one of those was from a right-handed batter, Mike Aviles, who ended up getting a base hit off Feliz anyway.

So, why has Feliz lost the ability to strikeout right-handed batters? To be honest, I don’t know. Looking at his heat maps for his fastball, the location doesn’t seem to be significantly different. He’s still pounding the upper part of the strike zone and pitching them mostly away. He doesn’t appear to be centering his fastball any more than he has in previous years. That doesn’t mean it’s not a location issue, but at the least, it’s not an obvious location issue.

So, let’s look at movement. His fastball does appear to be somewhat straighter this year – here’s two graphs of his horizontal movement, the first from 2011 and the second from 2010:

However, while there is a difference in horizontal movement, it’s not clear to me why this would only manifest itself against right-handed batters. Opposite-handed hitters should be whacking a predictably straight fastball as well, but they’re not – his problems have exclusively been against righties.

Usually, I’d like to propose some kind of theory as to what might be going wrong, but I honestly have no idea. It’s only 27 batters, so we could chalk it up to small sample size, but the odds of a guy with his kind of stuff and previous dominance facing 27 same-handed hitters without notching a single strikeout are very long. There’s something going on here – I just don’t know what it is yet.

Feliz is a guy we’ll have to keep an eye on. I’m sure the Rangers are just as curious about this as we are.

Bautista's leap.

Spoiler [+]

As long as Jose Bautista continues to hit like this it is our duty to write articles in his honor. Earlier in the week Dave Cameron analyzed how much of a bargain Bautista’s 5 yr/$65 mil extension with the Blue Jays will represent even if he sustains just a semblance of his current performance. Dave also offered up a pu pu platter of statistical nuggets summarizing Jose’s nutty season. Today I’ll look at where Bautista’s rise to superstardom ranks historically to answer the titular question.

We all know the man can hit. In just 35 games he has 4.0 WAR to his name, slashing .360/.509/.816 and with 16 home runs in the process. His rest of season ZiPS projection is .267/.388/.567, which is better than most players are hitting right now. Seriously, his regression-riddled wOBA for the rest of the season is .419 — only six players currently boast a mark greater than that.

Everything about his turnaround defies logic. This isn’t the case of an upper echelon prospect like Brandon Wood figuring something out. Bautista was always patient at the plate and played decent defense, but he was the epitome of a player whose value was linked directly to his team-controlled status. He was a stopgap solution, a non-tender candidate, not a stud in the making. He wasn’t going to make $65 million in his entire career, and now that amount over five years is considered a massive bargain. But is his drastic improvement unprecedented? In the annals of baseball history, has anyone ever improved as much and as quickly?

My first thought was to run a straight year-to-year comparison to see if anyone has experienced an uptick like Bautista’s, but I remembered that his improvement actually began at the end of the 2009 season. In September 2009, he hit .257/.339/.606, skewing his seasonal numbers. Though he produced 1.9 WAR on the whole, some significant portion of that had to be attributable to the power surge that month. Jumping from 1.9 WAR to 6.9 WAR is incredibly impressive, but the former number isn’t entirely indicative of his talent level prior to the mechanical changes he implemented.

To that end I decided to average his 2008-09 numbers and use that figure as the comparative basis. Bautista averaged 1.2 WAR from 2008-09 (0.4 in 2008, 1.9 in 2009). The jump from between replacement level and below average player to best-hitter-in-the-game is much more remarkable. To better model his improvement, however, the question was not one of how often a player improved by five or more wins above replacement level, but rather how frequently a player at, or below, Bautista’s prior talent level improved in a similar fashion.

Stipulating that the player had to tally at least 400 plate appearances in the two initial seasons being averaged, there were 841 players with a WAR average of no greater than 1.2 since 1960 who played at least one more season. Here are the biggest improvements from that average to the third season of the span:

Bret Boone (1999-2001): 0.3 WAR in 1999-00, 7.8 WAR in 2001
Dale Murphy (1978-1980): 0.1 WAR in 1978-79, 6.0 WAR in 1980
Jose Bautista (2008-2010): 1.2 WAR in 2008-09, 6.9 WAR in 2010
Cristian Guzman (1999-2001): -1.6 WAR in 1999-00, 3.9 WAR in 2001
Lloyd Moseby (1981-1983): 1.0 WAR in 1981-82, 6.2 WAR in 1983

Murphy’s first two full seasons were 1978 and 1979, so his improvement was more in line with natural development as a youngster. The same can be said of Guzman, whose first two seasons came in 1999 and 2000, and Moseby, whose second and third seasons came in 1981 and 1982. Of the top five, only Boone makes sense as a comparable situation, as both players were around 30 years old when they broke out, and each had a decent season or two in his past.

Moving further down the top fifteen improvements, another comparable player emerges: Leo Cardenas (1967-69), who averaged 0.9 WAR in 1967-68, and tallied six wins the next year. A few other players stood out, such as Joe Carter, Steve Finley and Dave Parker, but each of them had already produced a few all-star level campaigns. They were known to be solid players and were re-establishing themselves as all-stars.

Boone seems like the best comparable overall, as he averaged close to six wins above replacement from 2001-03 after several average or below average seasons.

Is Bautista’s meteoric rise to stardom unprecedented? No, not exactly, at least when the question is examined like this. What might be unprecedented is his improvement on the aforementioned improvement, assuming he finishes at around 10-11 WAR this season. This has the makings of an historic season, folks. Let’s not allow the terms “regression

statis22 · May 20, 2011

So who wants to tell me how a guy gets credited with a save in a 15-5 game? Seriously tho.

statis22 · May 20, 2011

So who wants to tell me how a guy gets credited with a save in a 15-5 game? Seriously tho.

proshares · May 20, 2011

Don't quote me stat but I think it's because he came in to start the 7th with a five run lead and got the remaining 9 outs to end the game. I'm not even sure, save rules are always tricky to me

proshares · May 20, 2011

Don't quote me stat but I think it's because he came in to start the 7th with a five run lead and got the remaining 9 outs to end the game. I'm not even sure, save rules are always tricky to me

periwinkle · May 21, 2011

I think it's that if you pitch 3 innings in relief in a game or something you'll get a save, I used to always rack up saves that way playing MVP Baseball

periwinkle · May 21, 2011

I think it's that if you pitch 3 innings in relief in a game or something you'll get a save, I used to always rack up saves that way playing MVP Baseball

briannnnn · May 21, 2011

Yes, one way to get a save is pitch three innings of relief without sacrificing the lead.

briannnnn · May 21, 2011

Yes, one way to get a save is pitch three innings of relief without sacrificing the lead.

kevin cleveland · May 21, 2011

This Twins/Diamondbacks game has been stupid entertaining.

kevin cleveland · May 21, 2011

This Twins/Diamondbacks game has been stupid entertaining.

651akathepaul · May 22, 2011

Guys....Don't snooze on the AL West. Seattle has the rotation of death right now.

651akathepaul · May 22, 2011

Guys....Don't snooze on the AL West. Seattle has the rotation of death right now.

abovelegit1 · May 22, 2011

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Guys....Don't snooze on the AL West. Seattle has the rotation of death right now.

Too bad "deathly" would also describe their offense.

abovelegit1 · May 22, 2011

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Guys....Don't snooze on the AL West. Seattle has the rotation of death right now.

Too bad "deathly" would also describe their offense.

kevin cleveland · May 22, 2011

James Shields strikes out 13 Marlins on his way to a complete game shutout. He gave up a walk and three singles.

5-2, 76.2 innings, 2.00 ERA, 73 strikeouts, 15 walks, 0.93 WHIP, .205 BAA.

kevin cleveland · May 22, 2011

James Shields strikes out 13 Marlins on his way to a complete game shutout. He gave up a walk and three singles.

5-2, 76.2 innings, 2.00 ERA, 73 strikeouts, 15 walks, 0.93 WHIP, .205 BAA.

proshares · May 23, 2011

Matt Garza.

Spoiler [+]

Matt Garza is good. Very good. His stuff, as many a catcher will attest, is as filthy as a chimney sweep. Yet, despite this, he has produced the results of a merely above-average starter. This year, in-the-know Cubs fans have observed The Tale of Two Garzas -- the story of a devastating strikeout pitcher who just can't seem to keep the scoreboard clean.

What gives? Which is the real Matt Garza? The one who can make Albert Pujols look like Neifi Perez, or the one who watches opponents slap pitches for key double after key double? Well, the truth lies somewhere in between.

Garza is never hard to find in a dugout. Leaning on the railing, nervously spitting sunflower seeds, waiting for any reason to vault over the railing and scream a little, the Cubs third starting pitcher is always totally immersed in the game, whether he's pitching or still four days away from taking the mound. But the Cubs didn't trade a hefty slice of their farm system for a cheerleader -- they wanted Garza win some games. Unfortunately for the Cubs, that hasn't happened very often this year.

When the Cubs acquired Garza this offseason, they were getting a starter who had pitched nearly 200 innings for three straight seasons with an ERA under 4.00. So far in 2011, Garza has been decent, but not lights-out-go-to-bed-you're-grounded, sporting a 3.72 ERA.

After his trade to the North Side, the common fear surrounded his stadium change. Despite his good ERA with the Tampa Bay Rays, Garza allowed more than the league average in homers in both 2009 and 2010 -- despite playing in a park known to depress power numbers. Moving to Wrigley Field, where a windy day can transform a popup into a double and a Mohawk into a comb-over, Garza looked poised for some serious struggles.

Instead, he changed his approach and found a new form of success.

In 2010, Garza threw his four-seam fastball (the straight or rising fastball) about 60 percent of the time, essentially challenging hitters to do their worst. This approach, coupled with the Rays' superior defense, made Garza relatively successful. However, without Evan Longoria snaring grounders like a demigod, the righty needed a more defensive-independent approach. So he replaced his extra four-seamers with a slew of bendy and wobbly pitches: more two-seamers (22 percent), sliders (21 percent), changeups (12 percent) and curves (11 percent).

FanGraphs

Garza has gone from a fastball-obsessed flamethrower to a crafty right-hander, who happens to sport a flammable fastball. The result has been a significant uptick in swinging strikes (7.5 percent in 2010 to 11.1 percent in 2011). Only his curveball seems to have lost some whiffs, but nearly every other pitch has induced many more frustrated batters; his changeup alone went from 33 percent whiffs to more than 54 percent.

His ERA (3.72) is nearly his career best; his strikeouts per nine innings (10.99) are way up from his career norm (7.36); and despite the extra K's, his walks per nine (3.23) are near his career norm (3.1

. Everything but the ERA screams, "Elite!"

In the National League, Garza gets to face pitchers and pinch hitters -- essentially giving an extra one or two strikeouts every game over his former league -- but still, no one anticipated that Garza would (1) change his approach and (2) become a strikeout machine because of it.

Fielding independent pitching (FIP), a statistic which combines strikeouts, walks, homers and hit-by-pitches to predict ERA, suggests Garza has actually been playing at a sub-2.00 ERA level. Through his first nine starts, Garza has mustered a 1.82 FIP, good for second in the majors behind Roy Halladay.

So is Garza on the road to Cy Young consideration? Well, no. Not really.

One of the reasons Garza's FIP is so low is the same reason his ERA is so high: BABIP. Garza's batting average on balls in play is extraordinarily high this year. Coming into his 10th start, Garza brings with him the highest BABIP of his career (.362). For pitchers, balls in play tend to go for only about a .300 average. When they fluctuate from that number, it oftentimes means the pitcher is rather lucky or unlucky.

Garza's high BABIP, which is about 60 points higher than his career norm, has not only allowed extra runs to score (increasing his ERA), but has also helped depress his FIP. Like the dandelion, which chokes out the grass but offers its own little flower, Garza's high and unlucky BABIP has led to more strikeouts. As noted before, Garza's K's are way up (about 55 percent up per inning). However, if we look at his strikeouts per batter faced, he has only gone from 19 percent (in 2008 through 2010) to 28 percent -- up only 9 percent, not 55 percent.

On top of that, Garza has allowed only one home run this year, after allowing 28 in 2010 and 25 in 2009. Though his new pitch selection approach may certainly play a role, he still appears to have Lady Luck's favor. Only 2.4 percent of Garza's fly balls have gone deep this year, despite allowing around 10 percent the last two years. One must expect, especially given his home stadium, that he will return to his career norm.

So altogether, the Cubs have one tough pitcher to predict: He's changed his approach significantly and seems to have increased his strikeouts; he's pitched better than his record (2-4) implies and maybe even better than his ERA suggests; but he's also pitched worse than his stellar K/9 and FIP report.

Which Garza will the Cubs get moving forward? Probably one similar to what we saw from 2008 through 2010, but over the next few years, Garza will likely continue to mature into one of the league's better right-handers, improving to a 3.25-3.50 ERA pitcher over the coming years. For now, though, his new approach will likely only improve his play marginally, taking him from a 4.00 ERA pitcher to a 3.80 ERA pitcher.

In the meantime, he'll at least be one hell of cheerleader.

Best bench in baseball.

Spoiler [+]

Eleven years removed from his MVP season, well past his prime, and near the end of his career, Jason Giambi doesn't play much anymore. When the Rockies penciled him into the lineup Thursday, it marked just his second start in nearly a month.

But the 40-year-old slugger showed he had something left in the tank, blasting three homers and knocking in all seven of Colorado's runs in a blowout win over the Phillies. In the process, Giambi accomplished a feat that's becoming increasingly rare in baseball: providing a big contribution off the bench.

A generation ago, teams carried 10-man pitching staffs, allowing managers to deploy a litany of platoons and employ ace pinch-hitters, while still saving room for speedy pinch-runners and defensive replacements who could make big plays late in a game. Before Bobby Cox built a dynasty in Atlanta, he managed the first winning clubs in Blue Jays history, using his deep bench to field platoons at multiple positions. Meanwhile, professional pinch-hitters like Manny Mota and Wallace Johnson stayed employed despite having little value other than their ability to bag a base hit late in a game.

Today, teams use 12-, even 13-man pitching staffs, leaving little room to collect a group of quality backups. For all the advantages managers gain by being able to play bullpen matchups, they're giving a lot of that back by trotting out shallow benches.

Though it's tough to peg one person for starting the trend of bloated bullpens and tiny benches, Tony LaRussa certainly helped get the movement going with the way he built his pen around Dennis Eckersley while managing the Oakland A's in the late 1980s.

Baseball being a game of copycats, other teams started expanding the size of their bullpens too, hoping to tap into that Oakland magic. The trend rapidly accelerated once pitch counts and more conservative usage of starting pitchers came into vogue. Today, a typical American League team carries just four bench players.

One of the best ways to handle this severe limitation is to build a versatile roster. The Tampa Bay Rays have Ben Zobrist, who doubles as one of the better hitters in the league and a multi-position threat, having played everywhere except pitcher and catcher in 2009, then skipping just pitcher, catcher, and shortstop last season. Adding Sean Rodriguez (seven positions played last year) allows the Rays to platoon, pinch-run, and pinch-hit as well as any club with just four bench guys possibly can. (Why the Rays have bothered with a seven-man pen when their long relief man almost never pitches is another question, and a strike against their usually sharp manager Joe Maddon).

Through the season's first six weeks, however, the honor of baseball's best bench goes to another team: LaRussa's own St. Louis Cardinals. Perhaps realizing what he's wrought with his bullpen tinkering, LaRussa has long targeted the most versatile players to man his bench, shying away from the Matt Stairs-types who can get you an occasional pinch-hit homer, but little else.

[h4]Hole Cards[/h4]
Baseball's best bench is one of many reasons the St. Louis Cardinals sit in first place in the NL Central.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]AVG/OBP/SLG[/th][/tr][tr][td]John Jay[/td][td]89[/td][td].312/.398/.455[/td][/tr][tr][td]Allen Craig[/td][td]80[/td][td].319/.400/.507[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nick Punto[/td][td]77[/td][td].262/.355/.385[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gerald Laird[/td][td]48[/td][td].214/.313/.381[/td][/tr][/table]

This year's club is no exception. The three bench players who've seen the most playing time, Allen Craig, John Jay, and Nick Punto, have played four, three, and three positions, respectively. All three have hit well too (see table), so much so that Craig has seized the starting second base job with Skip Schumaker on the disabled list. LaRussa's penchant for flexing players at different spots doesn't just extend to relative no-names either. To make room for other players, Albert Pujols has played two games at third base this year, the first time he's handled that position in nine years. As much as Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have supercharged the offense and Jaime Garcia, Kyle McLellan, and Kyle Lohse have been revelations in the rotation, the Cardinals might not be in first place if not for the contributions of their reserves.

The contending team that might have the weakest bench is Philadelphia. Though the Phillies knew they had a major injury risk with Chase Utley, they failed to acquire quality backups, watching Wilson Valdez (.234/.261/.290, not far off his career numbers) and Pete Orr (.230/.299/.279, and ditto) struggle mightily in Utley's place. Thirty-four-year-old Brian Schneider predictably flailed (.173/.218/.327) behind Carlos Ruiz at catcher, before going on the DL. With Raul Ibanez looking close to the end and All-Star center fielder Shane Victorino on the DL, backup outfielder Ben Francisco's performance (.216/.329/.360) has also been a letdown, though his career numbers are considerably better.

With a team heavy on star power but also showing age, injuries, or both at several positions, the Phillies could sorely use some bench reinforcements to hold off the upstart Marlins and Braves in the AL East. Given GM Ruben Amaro's history of making in-season upgrades (including Matt Stairs, Professional Hitter himself), we could well see that happen in the next few weeks.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]

http://[h3]Will Pujols' slow start be costly?[/h3]
10:43AM ET

[h5]Albert Pujols | Cardinals [/h5]

It has been exactly a month since Albert Pujols last hit a home run, and the decline in power production couldn't come at a worse time for the Cardinals first baseman.

Pujols will be seeking untold millions when he reaches free agency next fall and no one is saying that a slow start alone by the three-time MVP will have a major impact. But what if the slump continues? Has Pujols, whose .269 average is 60 points below his career BA, built up enough capital to overcome a full season of declined production?

"There's a long way to go, but if the decrease in power continues, how many teams will rush in to give an epic contract to a player who turns 32 before the start of next season?" Bernie Miklasz writes in Monday's Post-Dispatch. "And would it cause the Cardinals to become more cautious in what they choose to offer Pujols after the season?"

Miklasz adds that the Cards made a wise move by wrapping up Matt Holliday, whose $120 million deal looks prudent when you compare it to the $136 million give to Jayson Werth by the Nationals.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Change at the top in Denver?[/h3]
10:19AM ET

[h5]Colorado Rockies [/h5]

Rockies manager Jim Tracy tinkered with the top of his lineup Sunday in Milwaukee, a move that could become more permanent.

Dexter Fowler has been the Rockies' primary leadoff hitter, but was dropped to the No. 2 hole, the spot he has held for the bulk of his career. Tracy has been looking for an added boost at the top of the order, and Fowler's 54 strikeouts leaves him miscast as a leadoff hitter.

Asked if Fowler could remain in the No. 2 slot, Tracy didn't dismiss the idea, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post.

Alfredo Amezaga hit first in Sunday's defeat, while Seth Smith and Jonathan Herrera represent potential leadoff options. Renck suggests the Rockies could also take a look at Triple-A Colorado Springs and call up Charlie Blackmon, who is hitting .344.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Wright to see specialist[/h3]
10:00AM ET

[h5]David Wright | Mets [/h5]

UPDATE: Wright will fly to Los Angeles on Tuesday to see noted spine specialist Dr. Robert Watkins.

Wright says the trip was planned all along, but was delayed until he would be comfortable enough to handle the cross-country flight. Still, the Mets still are uncertain as to when Wright will return.

--

UPDATE: Wright was officially placed on the disabled list Wednesday and Nick Evans was called up to fill the roster spot. There has been no word on how long Wright may miss, but in one small way this could be good for the Mets as they rebuild for 2012 and 2013.

Turner and Murphy get more time, the club potentially climbs a few spots higher for the 2012 Draft without Wright in the lineup and, voila! The San Antonio Spurs (Tim Duncan) all over again. Right?

...

The New York Mets have yet to officially place David Wright on the disabled list, but expect the team is likely to be extra cautious after announcing Wednesday that the star third baseman has a stress fracture in his lower back.

GM Sandy Alderson said the team will get a second opinion from another back specialist at the team's hospital before committing to the DL. The plan will likely be for Wright to rest for 10 days, then can resume baseball activities.

Alderson adds that first baseman Nick Evans will be promoted from Triple-A Buffalo if Wright goes on the shelf. Willie Harris started at third base in Monday's loss to the Marlins. Second baseman Justin Turner was moved to third in the late innings and is another option at the position, as is Daniel Murphy.

There was some speculation that the Mets could call up the light-hitting Ruben Tejada, but that would compromise an already thin lineup.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Dodgers add a catcher?[/h3]
9:46AM ET

[h5]Rod Barajas | Dodgers [/h5]

The Los Angeles Dodgers may be looking to add a catcher to their roster after Rod Barajas suffered a sprained right wrist Sunday against the White Sox.

While X-rays were negative, Barajas could miss a few days, leaving Dioner Navarro as the only available catcher on the roster. Navarro is hitting a paltry .115 with seven strikeouts in 26 at-bats.

Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com says the Dodgers could bring back A.J. Ellis, the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. Ellis hit .267 in six games for the Dodgers before being sent back to Triple-A Albuquerque on April 25.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Impact of Wilpon comments[/h3]
9:30AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]

The New York Mets will have to do their latest round of damage control regarding comments made by principal owner Fred Wilpon in a feature story in "The New Yorker."

The article by Jeffrey Toobin chronicles Wilpon's rise to prominence as a baseball owner, and includes some brutally honest critiques of some of his marquee players.

Wilpon, for example, says shortstop and free-agent-to-be Jose Reyes will not be getting a mega-contract from the Mets and calls third baseman David Wright: "Really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar." The owner also was critical of the lucrative deal given to outfielder Carlos Beltran.

At the very least, the article could hamper the efforts of the Mets to re-sign Reyes, which already was a questionable proposition at best. Wilpon has a reputation of being a player-friendly owner, an image that could now take a serious hit.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets that Wilpon "made a big mistake" by cooperating with the story.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]McLouth to the DL?[/h3]
8:52AM ET

[h5]Nate McLouth | Braves [/h5]

Right fielder Jayson Werth landed on the 15-day disabled list Sunday. The injury-plagued Atlanta Braves are hoping that center fielder Nate McLouth doesn't join him on the shelf.

McLouth strained his left oblique while checking his swing in the first inning Sunday in Anaheim. David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says McLouth could land on the DL if his condition isn't improved before Tuesday.

Joe Mather would be the likely candidate to replace McLouth in center, but Mather could be used in right field in place of Heyward. If both starters are sidelined, Mather could end up in center with Wilkin Ramirez or Eric Hinske starting in right.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Who replaces Heyward?[/h3]
8:42AM ET

[h5]Jason Heyward | Braves [/h5]

With Jason Heyward's shoulder becoming a daily problem, the Atlanta Braves played it safe and placed the prized right fielder on the disabled list after Sunday's loss to the Angels.

Heyward's ailing shoulder flared up after batting practice on Friday, and caused him to be a late scratch for Saturday's game. The hope is that some rest will be the best thing for Heyward, who is hitting just .214.

They purchased the contract of outfielder Wilkin Ramirez from Triple-A Gwinnett Sunday and created a 40-man roster spot for Ramirez by moving relief pitcher Peter Moylan from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL.

David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says the Braves will likely go with hot-hitting Joe Mather in right field, although Ramirez could see some playing time.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]More at-bats for Paulino[/h3]
8:20AM ET

[h5]Ronny Paulino | Mets [/h5]

Ronny Paulino was behind the plate for the New York Mets on Sunday and he is expected to start the next few games at catcher.

Josh Thole is hitting a mere .205 and manager Terry Collins wants to give him a few days off to tinker with his swing. Paulino, who missed the first month of the season while serving a suspension, is hitting .306 in 13 games.

Paulino had received limited playing time as part of a platoon and the Mets want to get him some extra at-bats.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Could Astros be looking to deal?[/h3]
7:55AM ET

[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]

Could Jim Crane look to make an immediate impact when he takes over as principal owner of the Houston Astros?

Drayton McLane's $680 million deal to sell the Astros was announced last week and David Barron of the Houston Chronicle expects smooth sailing as the two sides work out the details of the sale.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the initial feeling is that Crane will spend to rebuild the Astros in the offseason, but he may have to sell off before that.

Brett Myers could be a valuable bargaining chip with the Yankees expected to set the pace in the pursuit of the veteran right-hander. Cafardo adds that right fielder Hunter Pence and center fielder Michael Bourn will be attractive to teams looking for outfielders.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Soriano's opt-out clause[/h3]
7:40AM ET

[h5]Rafael Soriano | Yankees [/h5]

Yankees setup reliever Rafael Soriano landed on the disabled list last Tuesday and is expected to miss at least another few weeks due to an ailing elbow.

Soriano didn't help matters by blaming the offense and the not the bullpen, for the team's recent slide.

The $35 million signing of Soriano is shaping up as an enormous bust. Nick Cafardo writes in Sunday's Boston Globe notes that Soriano, likely unhappy due to his set-up role, does have an opt-out clause after this season. But at this stage, it appears Soriano will stay put since he would be walking away from $24 million, a figure he is unlikely to reach with any other club.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Lidge back in three weeks?[/h3]
7:18AM ET

[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]

The Phillies have played all season without second baseman Chase Utley and closer Brad Lidge. We already know that Utley is scheduled to make his 2011 debut Monday against the Reds, and there is reason for optimism regarding Lidge as well.

Lidge, on the disabled list with a strained right posterior rotator cuff, headed to Florida Sunday to continue his rehab. He is expected to appear in extended spring games as well as some rehab games with Class A Clearwater and could be back in the Phillies' bullpen in 2 1/2 to three weeks, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

Ryan Madson is 9-for-9 in save opportunities in place of Lidge. Madson was unavailable to pitch Sunday because of soreness in his right hand, but says he us fine for Monday.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Tribe, M's buyers at deadline?[/h3]
7:01AM ET

[h5]Surprise Buyers [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Before the season started two of the starting pitchers expected to be discussed at the trade deadline were Cleveland's Fausto Carmona and Seattle's Erik Bedard. A lot had to happen for either to have value, especially Bedard, and as it turns out, neither pitcher may change addresses before July 31. But not because they don't have said value.

A funny thing happened since Opening Day -- both the Indians and Mariners found themselves in contention when they woke up Monday morning. Cleveland leads the American League Central and Seattle sits just 1 1/2 games back in the west.

Both clubs may look to add to their rosters rather than sell off veterans. Cleveland could use more pitching and Seattle needs offensive help, and perhaps a reliever.

There are still more than nine weeks until the trade deadline -- roughly 60 games -- so a lot can change. It doesn't appear as if Cleveland will stop scoring runs, however, and Seattle's pitching staff is absurdly good right now

proshares · May 23, 2011