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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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Zach Duke oppo three-run bomb and seven scoreless innings in his season debut.
Love that guy.
Love that guy.
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Zach Duke oppo three-run bomb and seven scoreless innings in his season debut.
Love that guy.
Love that guy.
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Anybody caught the end of the Royals/Rangers game? Pena was pissed.
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Anybody caught the end of the Royals/Rangers game? Pena was pissed.
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Its like when Rich Aurilia was hitting in front of Barry.
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Its like when Rich Aurilia was hitting in front of Barry.
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Originally Posted by Paul Is On Tilt
Anybody caught the end of the Royals/Rangers game? Pena was pissed.
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Originally Posted by Paul Is On Tilt
Anybody caught the end of the Royals/Rangers game? Pena was pissed.
Mock Draft.
Pineda.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Update on Lind[/h3]
10:08AM ET
[h5]Adam Lind | Blue Jays [/h5]
UPDATE: Lind tripled, singled, walked and struck out in four extended spring training at-bats Monday. Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun says Lind is working toward rejoining the Jays for their next road trip to Baltimore and Kansas City starting Monday.
--
Adam Lind has been out since May 7 with a sore back but is getting closer to returning, reports MLB.com. That can only be good news for Jose Bautista who could suffer from a lack of lineup protection as the season progresses.
The club will use Yunel Escobar in the cleanup spot this week after Aaron Hill, Juan Rivera and Edwin Encarnacion have seen time in that spot.
Lind, however, may not play regularly in the field once he does get back in attempt to keep him healthy. He will, however, jump back into the cleanup role.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Damage control by La Russa?[/h3]
10:02AM ET
[h5]Jaime Garcia | Cardinals [/h5]
Could Cardinals lefthander Jaime Garcia be a little perturbed with how he was used in Saturday's start in Colorado?
According to Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch, manager Tony La Russa met with Garcia before Sunday's game to help clarify "any mixed messages" the pitcher may have taken from Saturday's trip to the woodshed.
Garcia surrendered 12 runs (11 earned) to the Rockies, and his pitch count reached 107 before he was lifted after 3 1/3 innings. With no day off scheduled for Monday, La Russa said he wanted to avoid overworking his bullpen.
Garcia took one for the team, and his ERA leaped from 1.93 to 3.28 in a single outing. Pitchers, like all players, can be sensitive about their statistics, and La Russa might have been doing a little damage control.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Coke eyes June 8 return[/h3]
9:45AM ET
[h5]Phil Coke | Tigers [/h5]
Phil Coke expects to need just one rehab start and is on pace to return to the Detroit Tigers' rotation June 8 in Texas, reports Mark Snyder of the Free Press.
Coke, who landed on the disabled list last week with a bone bruise, said he has no pain in his foot and is ready to make one rehab start for Triple-A Toledo on Friday. Coke is just 1-5 with a 3.81 ERA, but has often been the victim of limited run support.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Barton to drop down in order?[/h3]
9:34AM ET
[h5]Daric Barton | Athletics [/h5]
Daric Barton still has the support of Oakland manager Bob Geren, even if it may be from a different perch in the batting order.
Geren hinted Monday that he might drop Barton down in the order after the first baseman went 0-for-4 against the Yankees, lowering his batting average to .206. Barton has hit second in all 49 games in which he has played.
One possibility for the two hole is David DeJesus, who primarily hit first and second with the Royals and is hitting close to .300 in his last 17 games. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that Ryan Sweeney and Cliff Pennington are other options for Geren.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Ike's return delayed[/h3]
9:17AM ET
[h5]Ike Davis | Mets [/h5]
Mets first baseman Ike Davis eyed a return from the disabled list olast Thursday, the first day he was eligible, but that was way too optimistic.
Davis was re-examined Monday night because the Mets are concerned with how long it has taken him to recover from the left ankle sprain and bone bruise, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post. The Mets hope to get an updated prognosis on Tuesday.
Daniel Murphy has been getting the bulk of the playing time at first base in the absence of Davis, who is hitting .302.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Webb's rehab start[/h3]
9:09AM ET
[h5]Brandon Webb | Rangers [/h5]
UPDATE: Webb made his first professional start since Opening Day of 2009, allowing five runs on eight hits in 31/3 innings for Double-A Frisco on Monday. The numbers are less important than Webb saying afterwards that he came through the outing healthy.
It's still too early to put a timetable on Webb's return. He speculated that he would be doing another rehab start in another five or six days.
--
UPDATE: Webb will start a rehab assignment Monday, reports Jeff Wilson, and has been cleared for three or four innings in his first outing. He threw a bullpen session Friday.
The Rangers have 30 days from Monday to activate the right-hander, assign him to a minor league roster or shut him down again.
...
Brandon Webb may finally be making legitimate progress toward a return to the big leagues, reports ESPNDallas.com.
Webb threw 55 of 79 pitches for strikes over six frames in Arizona and the report says Webb hit 84 mph on the radar gun, still 4-6 mph below where he was prior to the injury.
Anything Webb gives the Rangers in 2011 is a bonus at this point, but it appears it's all about building arm strength, not avoiding pain.
- Jason Churchill
http://[h3]Soria's future in KC[/h3]
8:51AM ET
[h5]Joakim Soria | Royals [/h5]
Royals manager Ned Yost said it is time for http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28688/joakim-soriaJoakim Soria to be used in "less pressure situations." That is often a euphemism for a flat-out benching, and Yost may be facing a delicate balancing act with how to use the deposed over the next few weeks.
Following another meltdown by Soria Monday against the Angels, Yost will work Aaron Crow into the closer's role, at least for the time being. Crow is the logical choice after going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 22 games. "I was told it was just temporary until Jack gets back to his old self. Then he'll be back closing out like he used to," Crow tells the Kansas City Star.
Soria's confidence has been eroded by five blown saves, but this is a pitcher with a proven track record of 139 career saves. But if Crow were to take the closer's job and run with it, could the Royals be looking to deal Soria?
Soria makes a relatively modest $4 million this season, and the Royals have contract options for each of the next three seasons, beginning with an affordable $6 million in 2012. He remains a key part of the Royals future, but things can change quickly, especially since his salary numbers only enhance his trade value.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy on the block?[/h3]
8:17AM ET
[h5]David Murphy | Rangers [/h5]
A quality left fielder is hard to find, and that could make the Rangers' David Murphy a valuable bargaining chip, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Sullivan writes that major league left fielders went in to Memorial Day with a combined .713 OPS, the lowest from that position in the past 30 years. Murphy has done little to bolster those numbers with a .626 OPS, but his career .784 OPS suggests the current number is an aberration.
With Josh Hamilton back from the disabled list, Murphy is back to being a fourth outfielder. Speculation in the past week has the Rangers looking for relief help, and Murphy could be trade bait.
If Murphy is traded, the Rangers lose a valuable insurance policy behind the injury-plagued Hamilton.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Garza could return Sunday[/h3]
7:56AM ET
[h5]Matt Garza | Cubs [/h5]
The injury-plagued Chicago Cubs could have Matt Garza back in the rotation as soon as Sunday against the Cardinals after the righthander threw on flat ground and played long toss Monday.
Garza has been sidelined since May 17 with tightness in his right elbow. Garza felt he didn?t need to go on the disabled list in the first place, so a quick return seems plausible.
The return of Garza would likely move the recently acquired Rodrigo Lopez, who started Monday against Houston, back to the bullpen.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Replacing Soriano [/h3]
7:38AM ET
[h5]Alfonso Soriano | Cubs [/h5]
Already dealing with the rash of injuries, the Chicago Cubs are awaiting word on the status of left fielder Alfonso Soriano, who left Monday's game against Houston in the first inning with a strained left quadriceps and underwent an MRI.
The Cubs had already placed utility infielder Jeff Baker on the 15-day disabled list earlier Monday, a day after putting Reed Johnson on the DL with back spasms. Center fielder Marlon Byrd already is on the DL, as are pitchers Andrew Cahsner and Matt Garza.
Blake DeWitt took in left field Monday and will get the bulk of playing time unless the Cubs tap into the farm system again, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. DeWitt has started just five games in the field this season and had never played the outfield in the big leagues until this year.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Reyes to play Thursday?[/h3]
7:17AM ET
[h5]Jose Reyes | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets barely missed Jose Reyes Monday, collecting 15 hits in a 7-3 win over the Pirates, but few expect that production to continue without the star shortstop in the lineup.
Reyes was placed on the bereavement list after learning of the death of his paternal grandmother and left the team Monday to fly home to Santiago, Dominican Republic. A player on the bereavement must miss a minimum of three days and a maximum of seven days.
Reyes told ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas that he hopes to return Wednesday, making him eligible to return Thursday afternoon against the Pirates. In the meantime, Mets fans will get a look at Ruben Tejada, billed as the shortstop of the future under the likely scenario that Reyes is either traded or departs via free agency.
Spoiler [+]
One change at the top can wreak havoc with the rest of the projection, which is what happened here; six or seven picks in the top 10 would change if the Pirates don't do what I'm projecting here at No. 1 overall. A couple of notes before we get into the projection itself:
• Texas A&M starter John Stilson, who already projected as a reliever in pro ball due to a violent delivery, needs surgery to fix a SLAP lesion -- SLAP stands for superior labral from anterior to posterior, and is a type of labrum injury -- in his shoulder and is off the board.
• Another college starter who is destined for the 'pen, TCU righty Kyle Winkler, missed his second weekend in three, reportedly due to arm "tenderness," and probably has to have a good showing at next weekend's regional to put himself back in the top two rounds.
• We're hearing bonus demands on some players, but not all, making the demands that have leaked out (including Josh Bell's intention to send a letter to all 30 teams saying he'd prefer to go to the University of Texas) seem outsized in comparison. I've chosen not to react too strongly to those anecdotal reports until we have numbers in for more players.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates are still seriously on Danny Hultzen and Bubba Starling, and I wouldn't rule Anthony Rendon out entirely, but my gut tells me right now they'll find Cole's raw stuff -- he hit 101 for me on Friday night and touched 100 many times, including in the eighth inning -- too good to pass up.
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Rendon did play some second base in the Conference USA tournament, and while I don't see that as his future position, or know anyone who does, it would fit with the persistent rumor that Dustin Ackley is headed for left field. Francisco Lindor is still an outside possibility, as he was scheduled to work out for the Mariners, but even if Rendon goes first overall there's still a chance the Mariners take Cole or even Starling. (As for Rendon's position switch, is there a more insane idea than taking a player who has already suffered catastrophic injuries to both ankles and putting him at the most injury-prone position anywhere besides catcher? Are we trying to get Rendon killed? He's a plus defender at third, maybe more than just plus, when healthy. This is a totally unwarranted risk to take.)
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen is gone, it's Trevor Bauer or Dylan Bundy here, with Cole and Starling as backup plans. The D-backs had a small army at ASU to see both UCLA arms this weekend, including GM Kevin Towers, and Bauer hit 95 in the first and ninth innings while spinning a shutout. But Hultzen's been their guy all spring.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
If Bundy goes at No. 3 to Arizona, the Orioles have the other top Oklahoma prep arm, Archie Bradley, in their sights, and I wouldn't rule out Cole here, either.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Cole is still the dream scenario for the Royals, who could end up with Bundy, as well. They're determined to get a pitcher who'll move quickly through their system to the big leagues so that he arrives with all their other premium minor league talent, and given the depth of pitching in this draft they can do that without reaching in the least.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
I believe the player the Nationals covet here is Bauer, but they'd be happy with Bubba Starling, who'd give them another headline-grabbing prospect in a system that's already added two of them in the past two drafts. GM Mike Rizzo was also on hand to witness Bauer's shutout on Saturday, and I think they could pencil him into their late 2012 rotation with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Gray threw extremely well in the SEC tournament and seems to have established himself as Arizona's safe bet here with an unprotected pick, assuming that bigger names like Bundy are already gone.
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy
Cleveland's board is still wide open; the Indians have indicated they can go over slot, and have even been linked to Archie Bradley, although the biggest names right now are Lindor, Jed Bradley and Javier Baez. If Bauer actually gets here, he's their pick.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, (Gardner, Kan.)
They've also been tied to George Springer, Javier Baez and Archie Bradley, although the latter seems unlikely with the Cubs saying they're focusing on hitters. They sent a small army in to see Springer at the Big East tournament.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
I know they're also interested in Barnes and Gray but seem less interested in Lindor than previously thought. Spangenberg is very signable, key for an unprotected pick, but isn't too much of a reach due to his hit and run tools.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
It sounds like the Astros are prepared to tangle with Bradley's football scholarship to Oklahoma and potentially high price tag. Alternatives include Lindor and Jed Bradley (no relation).
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Still hearing the same batch of names here, primarily Jungmann, Mikie Mahtook, Cory Spangenberg and possibly Lindor or Springer. I'm still surprised by how little I'm hearing Jungmann's name, given how good he is. I'm also hearing Utah's C.J. Cron in the Brewers' mix at No. 12 or 15, more likely 15 since he won't go in between the picks. Taylor Guerrieri's also an outside possibility.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
I'm guessing they'll take a college player here and prepare to spend in later picks, with Michael, Mahtook and Jungmann all leading candidates. Earlier interest in Taylor Guerrieri seems to have cooled.
[h6]Florida Marlins [/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, CF, LSU
The Marlins haven't taken a college position player in the first round since 1996, when they took Fullerton star Mark Kotsay. Since then, the highest they've ever taken a college bat is in the sandwich round with Chris Coghlan in 2006. The Mahtook rumor here gained a lot of steam in the past week, buoyed by the fact they took him in the 39th round in 2008. (They also took outfielder Kess Carter, now a top 200-caliber player at Western Kentucky, in the 43rd round that year.) Spangenberg remains a possibility here and they're linked to every Florida high school player of note in every year.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Cron's a safe, signable plan at this spot, with big raw power and the potential to replace Prince Fielder in a year or two. If Mahtook's here, they'd probably take him, and Spangenberg would fit the bill as an athletic position player with a good swing who'll sign quickly, since this pick is unprotected.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Javier Baez, 3B, Arlington Country Day School (Jacksonville, Fla.)
This really depends on whether they'll be allowed by MLB to go over slot; other names in the mix include expensive guys like Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard and Taylor Guerrieri.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
The Halos are also linked to Guerrieri and Dillon Howard. I think they'd like Henry Owens if they were picking 10-15 spots lower.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
The A's would love Springer or Spangenberg and rate Josh Bell very highly even with his rising price tag. Joe Ross is a backup plan here, with Alex Meyer and Norris also in the conversation.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
This would be amusing since Boston took Meyer out of high school and made a pretty good run at signing him on deadline day in 2008. They'll take the best player who falls here but are less likely to take a prep arm than anything else.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
The Rockies are heavy on Wong and Cron, with one (non-Rockies) cross-checker indicating that he thought they were down to those two players for this pick.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
In just about any other draft Bradley would be a top 10-15 pick, but the depth of college arms and trouble with his breaking ball have him sliding on many boards, although he could still go as high as No. 8 (Indians) or 11 (Astros). The Jays will probably go college here and then mix in prep players, including over-slot guys, in later rounds, just as they did last year.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, (Columbia, S.C.)
I've heard mostly prep arms here, including Fernandez, although they have some interest in slugger Larry Greene.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Brian Goodwin, CF, Miami Dade College
Or Larry Greene, or Meyer if he should fall this far, although I think they'd take Goodwin over Greene.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State
Sounds like they'll try to take at least one high-probability player in the first round, with Susac, Cron and Wong all possibilities, as well as any premium arm that should slide here.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy (Ark.) HS
They're wide open with this, their regular (protected) pick, and more likely to go for upside or exceed slot. Tyler Beede is also possible here.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Josh Bell, OF, Dallas Jesuit Prep
They're being linked to Beede, of course, since he's the local kid, but their general preference is to do high school arms later in the draft. Bell could easily fall out of the first round as it sounds like his bonus demand is more than any team is (currently) willing to offer. But that could change, especially if a big-spending team like the Red Sox or Yankees (picking at No. 51) nabs him.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Keep hearing they want a college arm, and a lefty if one fits. That could be Anderson or Vanderbilt's Grayson Garvin or even Florida State's Sean Gilmartin, who'd be a reach in the late first round.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Atlanta will take the best player available, with high school preferred to college. One thing you can take to the bank is Atlanta sticking to slot, with team president John Schuerholz sitting at the head of MLB's draft reform committee.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Also hearing best player available here, with genuine interest in Stephenson beyond geography, as well as Ross and Norris.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Tyler Anderson and Wong are also in the mix here; Beede's price tag is reportedly big, as in top 5-to-10 picks big, but there's also a strong feeling he wants to sign.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Travis Harrison, 3B, Tustin (Calif.) HS
Harrison is making a late push for consideration in the 30-45 range after a slow showing early.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Johnny Eierman, SS, Warsaw (Mo.) HS
The Rays are aiming for upside wherever possible, especially if they can bank one higher-probability guy at 24, and all indications are that they will take the best players they can regardless of bonus demands or slot recommendations. Given where they draft now, it's their best chance to acquire stars. I've also heard Travis Harrison in Tampa's mix.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Still hearing Josh Osich connected with Texas but they could probably grab him with their next pick at 37, and Harrison is probably in the same boat.
• Texas A&M starter John Stilson, who already projected as a reliever in pro ball due to a violent delivery, needs surgery to fix a SLAP lesion -- SLAP stands for superior labral from anterior to posterior, and is a type of labrum injury -- in his shoulder and is off the board.
• Another college starter who is destined for the 'pen, TCU righty Kyle Winkler, missed his second weekend in three, reportedly due to arm "tenderness," and probably has to have a good showing at next weekend's regional to put himself back in the top two rounds.
• We're hearing bonus demands on some players, but not all, making the demands that have leaked out (including Josh Bell's intention to send a letter to all 30 teams saying he'd prefer to go to the University of Texas) seem outsized in comparison. I've chosen not to react too strongly to those anecdotal reports until we have numbers in for more players.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates are still seriously on Danny Hultzen and Bubba Starling, and I wouldn't rule Anthony Rendon out entirely, but my gut tells me right now they'll find Cole's raw stuff -- he hit 101 for me on Friday night and touched 100 many times, including in the eighth inning -- too good to pass up.
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Rendon did play some second base in the Conference USA tournament, and while I don't see that as his future position, or know anyone who does, it would fit with the persistent rumor that Dustin Ackley is headed for left field. Francisco Lindor is still an outside possibility, as he was scheduled to work out for the Mariners, but even if Rendon goes first overall there's still a chance the Mariners take Cole or even Starling. (As for Rendon's position switch, is there a more insane idea than taking a player who has already suffered catastrophic injuries to both ankles and putting him at the most injury-prone position anywhere besides catcher? Are we trying to get Rendon killed? He's a plus defender at third, maybe more than just plus, when healthy. This is a totally unwarranted risk to take.)
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen is gone, it's Trevor Bauer or Dylan Bundy here, with Cole and Starling as backup plans. The D-backs had a small army at ASU to see both UCLA arms this weekend, including GM Kevin Towers, and Bauer hit 95 in the first and ninth innings while spinning a shutout. But Hultzen's been their guy all spring.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
If Bundy goes at No. 3 to Arizona, the Orioles have the other top Oklahoma prep arm, Archie Bradley, in their sights, and I wouldn't rule out Cole here, either.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Cole is still the dream scenario for the Royals, who could end up with Bundy, as well. They're determined to get a pitcher who'll move quickly through their system to the big leagues so that he arrives with all their other premium minor league talent, and given the depth of pitching in this draft they can do that without reaching in the least.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
I believe the player the Nationals covet here is Bauer, but they'd be happy with Bubba Starling, who'd give them another headline-grabbing prospect in a system that's already added two of them in the past two drafts. GM Mike Rizzo was also on hand to witness Bauer's shutout on Saturday, and I think they could pencil him into their late 2012 rotation with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Gray threw extremely well in the SEC tournament and seems to have established himself as Arizona's safe bet here with an unprotected pick, assuming that bigger names like Bundy are already gone.
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy
Cleveland's board is still wide open; the Indians have indicated they can go over slot, and have even been linked to Archie Bradley, although the biggest names right now are Lindor, Jed Bradley and Javier Baez. If Bauer actually gets here, he's their pick.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, (Gardner, Kan.)
They've also been tied to George Springer, Javier Baez and Archie Bradley, although the latter seems unlikely with the Cubs saying they're focusing on hitters. They sent a small army in to see Springer at the Big East tournament.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
I know they're also interested in Barnes and Gray but seem less interested in Lindor than previously thought. Spangenberg is very signable, key for an unprotected pick, but isn't too much of a reach due to his hit and run tools.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
It sounds like the Astros are prepared to tangle with Bradley's football scholarship to Oklahoma and potentially high price tag. Alternatives include Lindor and Jed Bradley (no relation).
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Still hearing the same batch of names here, primarily Jungmann, Mikie Mahtook, Cory Spangenberg and possibly Lindor or Springer. I'm still surprised by how little I'm hearing Jungmann's name, given how good he is. I'm also hearing Utah's C.J. Cron in the Brewers' mix at No. 12 or 15, more likely 15 since he won't go in between the picks. Taylor Guerrieri's also an outside possibility.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
I'm guessing they'll take a college player here and prepare to spend in later picks, with Michael, Mahtook and Jungmann all leading candidates. Earlier interest in Taylor Guerrieri seems to have cooled.
[h6]Florida Marlins [/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, CF, LSU
The Marlins haven't taken a college position player in the first round since 1996, when they took Fullerton star Mark Kotsay. Since then, the highest they've ever taken a college bat is in the sandwich round with Chris Coghlan in 2006. The Mahtook rumor here gained a lot of steam in the past week, buoyed by the fact they took him in the 39th round in 2008. (They also took outfielder Kess Carter, now a top 200-caliber player at Western Kentucky, in the 43rd round that year.) Spangenberg remains a possibility here and they're linked to every Florida high school player of note in every year.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Cron's a safe, signable plan at this spot, with big raw power and the potential to replace Prince Fielder in a year or two. If Mahtook's here, they'd probably take him, and Spangenberg would fit the bill as an athletic position player with a good swing who'll sign quickly, since this pick is unprotected.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Javier Baez, 3B, Arlington Country Day School (Jacksonville, Fla.)
This really depends on whether they'll be allowed by MLB to go over slot; other names in the mix include expensive guys like Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard and Taylor Guerrieri.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
The Halos are also linked to Guerrieri and Dillon Howard. I think they'd like Henry Owens if they were picking 10-15 spots lower.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
The A's would love Springer or Spangenberg and rate Josh Bell very highly even with his rising price tag. Joe Ross is a backup plan here, with Alex Meyer and Norris also in the conversation.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
This would be amusing since Boston took Meyer out of high school and made a pretty good run at signing him on deadline day in 2008. They'll take the best player who falls here but are less likely to take a prep arm than anything else.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
The Rockies are heavy on Wong and Cron, with one (non-Rockies) cross-checker indicating that he thought they were down to those two players for this pick.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
In just about any other draft Bradley would be a top 10-15 pick, but the depth of college arms and trouble with his breaking ball have him sliding on many boards, although he could still go as high as No. 8 (Indians) or 11 (Astros). The Jays will probably go college here and then mix in prep players, including over-slot guys, in later rounds, just as they did last year.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, (Columbia, S.C.)
I've heard mostly prep arms here, including Fernandez, although they have some interest in slugger Larry Greene.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Brian Goodwin, CF, Miami Dade College
Or Larry Greene, or Meyer if he should fall this far, although I think they'd take Goodwin over Greene.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State
Sounds like they'll try to take at least one high-probability player in the first round, with Susac, Cron and Wong all possibilities, as well as any premium arm that should slide here.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy (Ark.) HS
They're wide open with this, their regular (protected) pick, and more likely to go for upside or exceed slot. Tyler Beede is also possible here.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Josh Bell, OF, Dallas Jesuit Prep
They're being linked to Beede, of course, since he's the local kid, but their general preference is to do high school arms later in the draft. Bell could easily fall out of the first round as it sounds like his bonus demand is more than any team is (currently) willing to offer. But that could change, especially if a big-spending team like the Red Sox or Yankees (picking at No. 51) nabs him.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Keep hearing they want a college arm, and a lefty if one fits. That could be Anderson or Vanderbilt's Grayson Garvin or even Florida State's Sean Gilmartin, who'd be a reach in the late first round.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Atlanta will take the best player available, with high school preferred to college. One thing you can take to the bank is Atlanta sticking to slot, with team president John Schuerholz sitting at the head of MLB's draft reform committee.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Also hearing best player available here, with genuine interest in Stephenson beyond geography, as well as Ross and Norris.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Tyler Anderson and Wong are also in the mix here; Beede's price tag is reportedly big, as in top 5-to-10 picks big, but there's also a strong feeling he wants to sign.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Travis Harrison, 3B, Tustin (Calif.) HS
Harrison is making a late push for consideration in the 30-45 range after a slow showing early.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Johnny Eierman, SS, Warsaw (Mo.) HS
The Rays are aiming for upside wherever possible, especially if they can bank one higher-probability guy at 24, and all indications are that they will take the best players they can regardless of bonus demands or slot recommendations. Given where they draft now, it's their best chance to acquire stars. I've also heard Travis Harrison in Tampa's mix.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Still hearing Josh Osich connected with Texas but they could probably grab him with their next pick at 37, and Harrison is probably in the same boat.
Pineda.
Spoiler [+]
You'd be forgiven if you didn't expect Michael Pineda to out-pitch his Cy Young rotation mate, Felix Hernandez, especially at the outset of his rookie season. Before King Felix, the Seattle Mariners' organization had a poor track record in developing young pitchers, so perhaps Pineda was overlooked.
But the 22-year-old has been more effective than most expected in his first two months in the majors. After his dominant 7-inning, 9-strikeout start against the San Diego Padres on May 21, Pineda ranked among the league leaders in most statistical categories. His high strikeout total and low home run and walk rates suggest that Pineda has been more than just lucky so far. His fantastic start has kept the afterthought Mariners in the thick of the American League West race.
What's the secret to his success? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that hitters have rarely pulled the ball against the young Mariners' right hander. Baseball Info Solutions' data confirms this: Pineda has allowed hitters to pull just 31 percent of batted balls, compared to the 2011 league average of 40 percent. Only Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw have been better at avoiding the pulled ball.
[h4]Going the other way[/h4]
Michael Pineda has allowed the third-fewest amount of pulled balls against him.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]28%[/td][td]37%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Kershaw[/td][td]31%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]31%[/td][td]38%[/td][td]31%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Harang[/td][td]31%[/td][td]42%[/td][td]27%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roy Oswalt[/td][td]32%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]33%[/td][/tr][tr][td]League Average[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
What's the big deal about pulling the ball? The answer is in the numbers. Batters hit over 60 points higher and slug 200 points better when pulling the ball compared to going the other way, and they hit over four times more home runs to the pull field.
As the astute reader might point out, pulled ground balls, line drives and fly balls are very different animals. Pineda gets relatively few ground balls; in fact, he's been one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball, largely thanks to his heater. When hitters have caught up to Pineda's 96 mph fastball this season, they've hit a fly ball 61 percent of the time, the third-highest fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball this year.
Hitters pull ground balls, on average, 54 percent of the time, compared to just 12 percent hit to the opposite field. However, only 24 percent of fly balls are hit to the hitters' pull side, compared to 40 percent of flies hit the other way.
[h4]Power to all fields[/h4]
A breakdown of the type and direction of batted balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ground Balls[/td][td]54%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Line Drives[/td][td]38%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fly Balls[/td][td]24%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]All[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
Fly ball pitchers like Pineda have to be cautious, because when hitters do pull the ball on a fly, the damage can often be catastrophic. An amazing 26 percent of pulled fly balls have left the park as home runs this year, which is actually down slightly from 27 percent last year. By comparison, only 4 percent of fly balls hit to center and 2 percent of opposite field flies result in home runs.
[h4]Beware of the pull[/h4]
MLB averages by direction of fly balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Batting Average[/td][td]0.402[/td][td]0.194[/td][td]0.141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slugging Percentage[/td][td]1.297[/td][td]0.426[/td][td]0.283[/td][/tr][tr][td]Home Run Rate[/td][td]26.0%[/td][td]4.3%[/td][td]2.2%[/td][/tr][/table]
As Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Info recently illustrated, Pineda has shown an affinity for the outside corner to both right-handed hitters and lefties, especially early in the at-bat. With Pineda living on the outside edge, hitters are forced to go with the pitch and push it to the opposite field, where they usually do the least damage.
Through his May 21 start, just 12 of the 71 fly balls (17 percent, compared to the league average of 24 percent) Pineda have been pulled. Combine that with a spacious home ball park in Safeco Field, and Pineda's home run rate is predictably low, which in turn has helped keep his ERA low.
But will he keep it up? Will Pineda continue to induce opposite field fly balls and avoid the deadly pulled side as he has so far in 2011?
The short answer is yes, to a certain extent. For the 100 pitchers last season who induced at least 200 batted balls both before and after July 1 of last season, their ground ball and fly ball rates correlated extremely well, at the .80 level. This suggests that Pineda is likely to continue inducing fly balls at the high rate we've seen from him so far.
However, the pulled fly ball percentage correlation was weaker at .34. For now we can presume that there's a reasonable chance Pineda will continue to avoid pulled fly balls, but he likely will regress to the league average rate a good amount. Of course, his home park will still be on his side; just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels about Safeco Field's treatment of fly balls. Even with some regression, Pineda has a very bright future ahead of him.
But the 22-year-old has been more effective than most expected in his first two months in the majors. After his dominant 7-inning, 9-strikeout start against the San Diego Padres on May 21, Pineda ranked among the league leaders in most statistical categories. His high strikeout total and low home run and walk rates suggest that Pineda has been more than just lucky so far. His fantastic start has kept the afterthought Mariners in the thick of the American League West race.
What's the secret to his success? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that hitters have rarely pulled the ball against the young Mariners' right hander. Baseball Info Solutions' data confirms this: Pineda has allowed hitters to pull just 31 percent of batted balls, compared to the 2011 league average of 40 percent. Only Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw have been better at avoiding the pulled ball.
[h4]Going the other way[/h4]
Michael Pineda has allowed the third-fewest amount of pulled balls against him.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]28%[/td][td]37%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Kershaw[/td][td]31%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]31%[/td][td]38%[/td][td]31%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Harang[/td][td]31%[/td][td]42%[/td][td]27%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roy Oswalt[/td][td]32%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]33%[/td][/tr][tr][td]League Average[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
What's the big deal about pulling the ball? The answer is in the numbers. Batters hit over 60 points higher and slug 200 points better when pulling the ball compared to going the other way, and they hit over four times more home runs to the pull field.
As the astute reader might point out, pulled ground balls, line drives and fly balls are very different animals. Pineda gets relatively few ground balls; in fact, he's been one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball, largely thanks to his heater. When hitters have caught up to Pineda's 96 mph fastball this season, they've hit a fly ball 61 percent of the time, the third-highest fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball this year.
Hitters pull ground balls, on average, 54 percent of the time, compared to just 12 percent hit to the opposite field. However, only 24 percent of fly balls are hit to the hitters' pull side, compared to 40 percent of flies hit the other way.
[h4]Power to all fields[/h4]
A breakdown of the type and direction of batted balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ground Balls[/td][td]54%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Line Drives[/td][td]38%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fly Balls[/td][td]24%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]All[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
Fly ball pitchers like Pineda have to be cautious, because when hitters do pull the ball on a fly, the damage can often be catastrophic. An amazing 26 percent of pulled fly balls have left the park as home runs this year, which is actually down slightly from 27 percent last year. By comparison, only 4 percent of fly balls hit to center and 2 percent of opposite field flies result in home runs.
[h4]Beware of the pull[/h4]
MLB averages by direction of fly balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Batting Average[/td][td]0.402[/td][td]0.194[/td][td]0.141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slugging Percentage[/td][td]1.297[/td][td]0.426[/td][td]0.283[/td][/tr][tr][td]Home Run Rate[/td][td]26.0%[/td][td]4.3%[/td][td]2.2%[/td][/tr][/table]
As Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Info recently illustrated, Pineda has shown an affinity for the outside corner to both right-handed hitters and lefties, especially early in the at-bat. With Pineda living on the outside edge, hitters are forced to go with the pitch and push it to the opposite field, where they usually do the least damage.
Through his May 21 start, just 12 of the 71 fly balls (17 percent, compared to the league average of 24 percent) Pineda have been pulled. Combine that with a spacious home ball park in Safeco Field, and Pineda's home run rate is predictably low, which in turn has helped keep his ERA low.
But will he keep it up? Will Pineda continue to induce opposite field fly balls and avoid the deadly pulled side as he has so far in 2011?
The short answer is yes, to a certain extent. For the 100 pitchers last season who induced at least 200 batted balls both before and after July 1 of last season, their ground ball and fly ball rates correlated extremely well, at the .80 level. This suggests that Pineda is likely to continue inducing fly balls at the high rate we've seen from him so far.
However, the pulled fly ball percentage correlation was weaker at .34. For now we can presume that there's a reasonable chance Pineda will continue to avoid pulled fly balls, but he likely will regress to the league average rate a good amount. Of course, his home park will still be on his side; just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels about Safeco Field's treatment of fly balls. Even with some regression, Pineda has a very bright future ahead of him.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Night off for Elvis?[/h3]
11:14AM ET
[h5]Elvis Andrus | Rangers [/h5]
Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus could get the night off Tuesday after getting spiked by teammate Michael Young in the left foot in Monday's win over the Rays, says MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Andrus did not play in the ninth inning Monday and was replaced by Andres Blanco, who could get the start if Andrus is not ready.
Young was starting at second base because Ian Kinsler was given the day off. Sullivan adds that Young is expected to start at second with Kinsler at DH on Tuesday.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Johnson's return delayed?[/h3]
10:56AM ET
[h5]Josh Johnson | Marlins [/h5]
The Marlins were hoping sidelined ace Josh Johnson would be ready to return June 7, the next time they need a fifth starter, but that now looks like wishful thinking.
Manager Edwin Rodriguez was not overly optimistic that Johnson, on the DL with shoulder inflammation, would be ready in time and Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel says the Fish are considering alternatives.
The Marlins will likely try to stay away from Brian Sanches, a veteran reliever who worked three innings in an emergency start last weekend.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Back issues for Ramirez[/h3]
10:35AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
We may have a reason for the dramatic fall in production this season by http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez.
The Marlins' All-Star shortstop was out of Monday lineup against the D-backs at Chase Field because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding Monday it?s the worst pain he?s experienced.
The Marlins have been playing over their heads and will be hard pressed to continue on that path without Ramirez, even if he is hitting a mere .210 with 17 RBI. The Marlins are saying Ramirez is day-to-day, but a return in the next day or two seems unlikely.
Emilio Bonifacio started at shortsop against the D-backs Monday and has 22 career starts at the position.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pudge to the Giants?[/h3]
10:16AM ET
[h5]Ivan Rodriguez | Nationals [/h5]
UPDATE: ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets Tuesday that the Nationals have reached out to the Giants to gauge their interest in Rodriguez, but adds it "doesn't appear as if a lot of progress has been made."
--
UPDATE: The Nationals are not planning on dealing Rodriguez, reports Adam Kilgore, but that doesn't mean they won't. "To move him, it would have to be a good deal that helps us long term, not a quick fix trade for offense to get us to the time when Ryan Zimmerman is back," Rizzo said. "Pudge would be a big piece for a contending team if they needed a catcher."
It sure sounds like posturing, doesn't it?
--
In the wake of the injury to Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants are likely to hit the market for catching. Eli Whiteside will be joined by Chris Stewart in the meantime, but our own Jim Bowden has a suggestion via Twitter: "Nats should offer Pudge to Giants and give at-bats to their young catchers."
This makes so much sense that it probably has no chance of happening. Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos are the immediate future behind the plate for the Nationals with Derek Norris on the way. Pudge could step in with Whiteside in San Francisco and solidify the catching position.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Dave Cameron[/h5]
Is Pudge the answer in SF?
11:14AM ET
[h5]Elvis Andrus | Rangers [/h5]
Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus could get the night off Tuesday after getting spiked by teammate Michael Young in the left foot in Monday's win over the Rays, says MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Andrus did not play in the ninth inning Monday and was replaced by Andres Blanco, who could get the start if Andrus is not ready.
Young was starting at second base because Ian Kinsler was given the day off. Sullivan adds that Young is expected to start at second with Kinsler at DH on Tuesday.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Johnson's return delayed?[/h3]
10:56AM ET
[h5]Josh Johnson | Marlins [/h5]
The Marlins were hoping sidelined ace Josh Johnson would be ready to return June 7, the next time they need a fifth starter, but that now looks like wishful thinking.
Manager Edwin Rodriguez was not overly optimistic that Johnson, on the DL with shoulder inflammation, would be ready in time and Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel says the Fish are considering alternatives.
The Marlins will likely try to stay away from Brian Sanches, a veteran reliever who worked three innings in an emergency start last weekend.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Back issues for Ramirez[/h3]
10:35AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
We may have a reason for the dramatic fall in production this season by http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez.
The Marlins' All-Star shortstop was out of Monday lineup against the D-backs at Chase Field because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding Monday it?s the worst pain he?s experienced.
The Marlins have been playing over their heads and will be hard pressed to continue on that path without Ramirez, even if he is hitting a mere .210 with 17 RBI. The Marlins are saying Ramirez is day-to-day, but a return in the next day or two seems unlikely.
Emilio Bonifacio started at shortsop against the D-backs Monday and has 22 career starts at the position.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pudge to the Giants?[/h3]
10:16AM ET
[h5]Ivan Rodriguez | Nationals [/h5]
UPDATE: ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets Tuesday that the Nationals have reached out to the Giants to gauge their interest in Rodriguez, but adds it "doesn't appear as if a lot of progress has been made."
--
UPDATE: The Nationals are not planning on dealing Rodriguez, reports Adam Kilgore, but that doesn't mean they won't. "To move him, it would have to be a good deal that helps us long term, not a quick fix trade for offense to get us to the time when Ryan Zimmerman is back," Rizzo said. "Pudge would be a big piece for a contending team if they needed a catcher."
It sure sounds like posturing, doesn't it?
--
In the wake of the injury to Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants are likely to hit the market for catching. Eli Whiteside will be joined by Chris Stewart in the meantime, but our own Jim Bowden has a suggestion via Twitter: "Nats should offer Pudge to Giants and give at-bats to their young catchers."
This makes so much sense that it probably has no chance of happening. Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos are the immediate future behind the plate for the Nationals with Derek Norris on the way. Pudge could step in with Whiteside in San Francisco and solidify the catching position.
- Jason A. Churchill
Is Pudge the answer in SF?
10:08AM ET
[h5]Adam Lind | Blue Jays [/h5]
UPDATE: Lind tripled, singled, walked and struck out in four extended spring training at-bats Monday. Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun says Lind is working toward rejoining the Jays for their next road trip to Baltimore and Kansas City starting Monday.
--
Adam Lind has been out since May 7 with a sore back but is getting closer to returning, reports MLB.com. That can only be good news for Jose Bautista who could suffer from a lack of lineup protection as the season progresses.
The club will use Yunel Escobar in the cleanup spot this week after Aaron Hill, Juan Rivera and Edwin Encarnacion have seen time in that spot.
Lind, however, may not play regularly in the field once he does get back in attempt to keep him healthy. He will, however, jump back into the cleanup role.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Damage control by La Russa?[/h3]
10:02AM ET
[h5]Jaime Garcia | Cardinals [/h5]
Could Cardinals lefthander Jaime Garcia be a little perturbed with how he was used in Saturday's start in Colorado?
According to Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch, manager Tony La Russa met with Garcia before Sunday's game to help clarify "any mixed messages" the pitcher may have taken from Saturday's trip to the woodshed.
Garcia surrendered 12 runs (11 earned) to the Rockies, and his pitch count reached 107 before he was lifted after 3 1/3 innings. With no day off scheduled for Monday, La Russa said he wanted to avoid overworking his bullpen.
Garcia took one for the team, and his ERA leaped from 1.93 to 3.28 in a single outing. Pitchers, like all players, can be sensitive about their statistics, and La Russa might have been doing a little damage control.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Coke eyes June 8 return[/h3]
9:45AM ET
[h5]Phil Coke | Tigers [/h5]
Phil Coke expects to need just one rehab start and is on pace to return to the Detroit Tigers' rotation June 8 in Texas, reports Mark Snyder of the Free Press.
Coke, who landed on the disabled list last week with a bone bruise, said he has no pain in his foot and is ready to make one rehab start for Triple-A Toledo on Friday. Coke is just 1-5 with a 3.81 ERA, but has often been the victim of limited run support.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Barton to drop down in order?[/h3]
9:34AM ET
[h5]Daric Barton | Athletics [/h5]
Daric Barton still has the support of Oakland manager Bob Geren, even if it may be from a different perch in the batting order.
Geren hinted Monday that he might drop Barton down in the order after the first baseman went 0-for-4 against the Yankees, lowering his batting average to .206. Barton has hit second in all 49 games in which he has played.
One possibility for the two hole is David DeJesus, who primarily hit first and second with the Royals and is hitting close to .300 in his last 17 games. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that Ryan Sweeney and Cliff Pennington are other options for Geren.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Ike's return delayed[/h3]
9:17AM ET
[h5]Ike Davis | Mets [/h5]
Mets first baseman Ike Davis eyed a return from the disabled list olast Thursday, the first day he was eligible, but that was way too optimistic.
Davis was re-examined Monday night because the Mets are concerned with how long it has taken him to recover from the left ankle sprain and bone bruise, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post. The Mets hope to get an updated prognosis on Tuesday.
Daniel Murphy has been getting the bulk of the playing time at first base in the absence of Davis, who is hitting .302.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Webb's rehab start[/h3]
9:09AM ET
[h5]Brandon Webb | Rangers [/h5]
UPDATE: Webb made his first professional start since Opening Day of 2009, allowing five runs on eight hits in 31/3 innings for Double-A Frisco on Monday. The numbers are less important than Webb saying afterwards that he came through the outing healthy.
It's still too early to put a timetable on Webb's return. He speculated that he would be doing another rehab start in another five or six days.
--
UPDATE: Webb will start a rehab assignment Monday, reports Jeff Wilson, and has been cleared for three or four innings in his first outing. He threw a bullpen session Friday.
The Rangers have 30 days from Monday to activate the right-hander, assign him to a minor league roster or shut him down again.
...
Brandon Webb may finally be making legitimate progress toward a return to the big leagues, reports ESPNDallas.com.
Webb threw 55 of 79 pitches for strikes over six frames in Arizona and the report says Webb hit 84 mph on the radar gun, still 4-6 mph below where he was prior to the injury.
Anything Webb gives the Rangers in 2011 is a bonus at this point, but it appears it's all about building arm strength, not avoiding pain.
- Jason Churchill
http://[h3]Soria's future in KC[/h3]
8:51AM ET
[h5]Joakim Soria | Royals [/h5]
Royals manager Ned Yost said it is time for http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28688/joakim-soriaJoakim Soria to be used in "less pressure situations." That is often a euphemism for a flat-out benching, and Yost may be facing a delicate balancing act with how to use the deposed over the next few weeks.
Following another meltdown by Soria Monday against the Angels, Yost will work Aaron Crow into the closer's role, at least for the time being. Crow is the logical choice after going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 22 games. "I was told it was just temporary until Jack gets back to his old self. Then he'll be back closing out like he used to," Crow tells the Kansas City Star.
Soria's confidence has been eroded by five blown saves, but this is a pitcher with a proven track record of 139 career saves. But if Crow were to take the closer's job and run with it, could the Royals be looking to deal Soria?
Soria makes a relatively modest $4 million this season, and the Royals have contract options for each of the next three seasons, beginning with an affordable $6 million in 2012. He remains a key part of the Royals future, but things can change quickly, especially since his salary numbers only enhance his trade value.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy on the block?[/h3]
8:17AM ET
[h5]David Murphy | Rangers [/h5]
A quality left fielder is hard to find, and that could make the Rangers' David Murphy a valuable bargaining chip, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Sullivan writes that major league left fielders went in to Memorial Day with a combined .713 OPS, the lowest from that position in the past 30 years. Murphy has done little to bolster those numbers with a .626 OPS, but his career .784 OPS suggests the current number is an aberration.
With Josh Hamilton back from the disabled list, Murphy is back to being a fourth outfielder. Speculation in the past week has the Rangers looking for relief help, and Murphy could be trade bait.
If Murphy is traded, the Rangers lose a valuable insurance policy behind the injury-plagued Hamilton.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Garza could return Sunday[/h3]
7:56AM ET
[h5]Matt Garza | Cubs [/h5]
The injury-plagued Chicago Cubs could have Matt Garza back in the rotation as soon as Sunday against the Cardinals after the righthander threw on flat ground and played long toss Monday.
Garza has been sidelined since May 17 with tightness in his right elbow. Garza felt he didn?t need to go on the disabled list in the first place, so a quick return seems plausible.
The return of Garza would likely move the recently acquired Rodrigo Lopez, who started Monday against Houston, back to the bullpen.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Replacing Soriano [/h3]
7:38AM ET
[h5]Alfonso Soriano | Cubs [/h5]
Already dealing with the rash of injuries, the Chicago Cubs are awaiting word on the status of left fielder Alfonso Soriano, who left Monday's game against Houston in the first inning with a strained left quadriceps and underwent an MRI.
The Cubs had already placed utility infielder Jeff Baker on the 15-day disabled list earlier Monday, a day after putting Reed Johnson on the DL with back spasms. Center fielder Marlon Byrd already is on the DL, as are pitchers Andrew Cahsner and Matt Garza.
Blake DeWitt took in left field Monday and will get the bulk of playing time unless the Cubs tap into the farm system again, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. DeWitt has started just five games in the field this season and had never played the outfield in the big leagues until this year.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Reyes to play Thursday?[/h3]
7:17AM ET
[h5]Jose Reyes | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets barely missed Jose Reyes Monday, collecting 15 hits in a 7-3 win over the Pirates, but few expect that production to continue without the star shortstop in the lineup.
Reyes was placed on the bereavement list after learning of the death of his paternal grandmother and left the team Monday to fly home to Santiago, Dominican Republic. A player on the bereavement must miss a minimum of three days and a maximum of seven days.
Reyes told ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas that he hopes to return Wednesday, making him eligible to return Thursday afternoon against the Pirates. In the meantime, Mets fans will get a look at Ruben Tejada, billed as the shortstop of the future under the likely scenario that Reyes is either traded or departs via free agency.
Mock Draft.
Pineda.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Update on Lind[/h3]
10:08AM ET
[h5]Adam Lind | Blue Jays [/h5]
UPDATE: Lind tripled, singled, walked and struck out in four extended spring training at-bats Monday. Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun says Lind is working toward rejoining the Jays for their next road trip to Baltimore and Kansas City starting Monday.
--
Adam Lind has been out since May 7 with a sore back but is getting closer to returning, reports MLB.com. That can only be good news for Jose Bautista who could suffer from a lack of lineup protection as the season progresses.
The club will use Yunel Escobar in the cleanup spot this week after Aaron Hill, Juan Rivera and Edwin Encarnacion have seen time in that spot.
Lind, however, may not play regularly in the field once he does get back in attempt to keep him healthy. He will, however, jump back into the cleanup role.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Damage control by La Russa?[/h3]
10:02AM ET
[h5]Jaime Garcia | Cardinals [/h5]
Could Cardinals lefthander Jaime Garcia be a little perturbed with how he was used in Saturday's start in Colorado?
According to Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch, manager Tony La Russa met with Garcia before Sunday's game to help clarify "any mixed messages" the pitcher may have taken from Saturday's trip to the woodshed.
Garcia surrendered 12 runs (11 earned) to the Rockies, and his pitch count reached 107 before he was lifted after 3 1/3 innings. With no day off scheduled for Monday, La Russa said he wanted to avoid overworking his bullpen.
Garcia took one for the team, and his ERA leaped from 1.93 to 3.28 in a single outing. Pitchers, like all players, can be sensitive about their statistics, and La Russa might have been doing a little damage control.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Coke eyes June 8 return[/h3]
9:45AM ET
[h5]Phil Coke | Tigers [/h5]
Phil Coke expects to need just one rehab start and is on pace to return to the Detroit Tigers' rotation June 8 in Texas, reports Mark Snyder of the Free Press.
Coke, who landed on the disabled list last week with a bone bruise, said he has no pain in his foot and is ready to make one rehab start for Triple-A Toledo on Friday. Coke is just 1-5 with a 3.81 ERA, but has often been the victim of limited run support.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Barton to drop down in order?[/h3]
9:34AM ET
[h5]Daric Barton | Athletics [/h5]
Daric Barton still has the support of Oakland manager Bob Geren, even if it may be from a different perch in the batting order.
Geren hinted Monday that he might drop Barton down in the order after the first baseman went 0-for-4 against the Yankees, lowering his batting average to .206. Barton has hit second in all 49 games in which he has played.
One possibility for the two hole is David DeJesus, who primarily hit first and second with the Royals and is hitting close to .300 in his last 17 games. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that Ryan Sweeney and Cliff Pennington are other options for Geren.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Ike's return delayed[/h3]
9:17AM ET
[h5]Ike Davis | Mets [/h5]
Mets first baseman Ike Davis eyed a return from the disabled list olast Thursday, the first day he was eligible, but that was way too optimistic.
Davis was re-examined Monday night because the Mets are concerned with how long it has taken him to recover from the left ankle sprain and bone bruise, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post. The Mets hope to get an updated prognosis on Tuesday.
Daniel Murphy has been getting the bulk of the playing time at first base in the absence of Davis, who is hitting .302.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Webb's rehab start[/h3]
9:09AM ET
[h5]Brandon Webb | Rangers [/h5]
UPDATE: Webb made his first professional start since Opening Day of 2009, allowing five runs on eight hits in 31/3 innings for Double-A Frisco on Monday. The numbers are less important than Webb saying afterwards that he came through the outing healthy.
It's still too early to put a timetable on Webb's return. He speculated that he would be doing another rehab start in another five or six days.
--
UPDATE: Webb will start a rehab assignment Monday, reports Jeff Wilson, and has been cleared for three or four innings in his first outing. He threw a bullpen session Friday.
The Rangers have 30 days from Monday to activate the right-hander, assign him to a minor league roster or shut him down again.
...
Brandon Webb may finally be making legitimate progress toward a return to the big leagues, reports ESPNDallas.com.
Webb threw 55 of 79 pitches for strikes over six frames in Arizona and the report says Webb hit 84 mph on the radar gun, still 4-6 mph below where he was prior to the injury.
Anything Webb gives the Rangers in 2011 is a bonus at this point, but it appears it's all about building arm strength, not avoiding pain.
- Jason Churchill
http://[h3]Soria's future in KC[/h3]
8:51AM ET
[h5]Joakim Soria | Royals [/h5]
Royals manager Ned Yost said it is time for http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28688/joakim-soriaJoakim Soria to be used in "less pressure situations." That is often a euphemism for a flat-out benching, and Yost may be facing a delicate balancing act with how to use the deposed over the next few weeks.
Following another meltdown by Soria Monday against the Angels, Yost will work Aaron Crow into the closer's role, at least for the time being. Crow is the logical choice after going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 22 games. "I was told it was just temporary until Jack gets back to his old self. Then he'll be back closing out like he used to," Crow tells the Kansas City Star.
Soria's confidence has been eroded by five blown saves, but this is a pitcher with a proven track record of 139 career saves. But if Crow were to take the closer's job and run with it, could the Royals be looking to deal Soria?
Soria makes a relatively modest $4 million this season, and the Royals have contract options for each of the next three seasons, beginning with an affordable $6 million in 2012. He remains a key part of the Royals future, but things can change quickly, especially since his salary numbers only enhance his trade value.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy on the block?[/h3]
8:17AM ET
[h5]David Murphy | Rangers [/h5]
A quality left fielder is hard to find, and that could make the Rangers' David Murphy a valuable bargaining chip, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Sullivan writes that major league left fielders went in to Memorial Day with a combined .713 OPS, the lowest from that position in the past 30 years. Murphy has done little to bolster those numbers with a .626 OPS, but his career .784 OPS suggests the current number is an aberration.
With Josh Hamilton back from the disabled list, Murphy is back to being a fourth outfielder. Speculation in the past week has the Rangers looking for relief help, and Murphy could be trade bait.
If Murphy is traded, the Rangers lose a valuable insurance policy behind the injury-plagued Hamilton.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Garza could return Sunday[/h3]
7:56AM ET
[h5]Matt Garza | Cubs [/h5]
The injury-plagued Chicago Cubs could have Matt Garza back in the rotation as soon as Sunday against the Cardinals after the righthander threw on flat ground and played long toss Monday.
Garza has been sidelined since May 17 with tightness in his right elbow. Garza felt he didn?t need to go on the disabled list in the first place, so a quick return seems plausible.
The return of Garza would likely move the recently acquired Rodrigo Lopez, who started Monday against Houston, back to the bullpen.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Replacing Soriano [/h3]
7:38AM ET
[h5]Alfonso Soriano | Cubs [/h5]
Already dealing with the rash of injuries, the Chicago Cubs are awaiting word on the status of left fielder Alfonso Soriano, who left Monday's game against Houston in the first inning with a strained left quadriceps and underwent an MRI.
The Cubs had already placed utility infielder Jeff Baker on the 15-day disabled list earlier Monday, a day after putting Reed Johnson on the DL with back spasms. Center fielder Marlon Byrd already is on the DL, as are pitchers Andrew Cahsner and Matt Garza.
Blake DeWitt took in left field Monday and will get the bulk of playing time unless the Cubs tap into the farm system again, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. DeWitt has started just five games in the field this season and had never played the outfield in the big leagues until this year.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Reyes to play Thursday?[/h3]
7:17AM ET
[h5]Jose Reyes | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets barely missed Jose Reyes Monday, collecting 15 hits in a 7-3 win over the Pirates, but few expect that production to continue without the star shortstop in the lineup.
Reyes was placed on the bereavement list after learning of the death of his paternal grandmother and left the team Monday to fly home to Santiago, Dominican Republic. A player on the bereavement must miss a minimum of three days and a maximum of seven days.
Reyes told ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas that he hopes to return Wednesday, making him eligible to return Thursday afternoon against the Pirates. In the meantime, Mets fans will get a look at Ruben Tejada, billed as the shortstop of the future under the likely scenario that Reyes is either traded or departs via free agency.
Spoiler [+]
One change at the top can wreak havoc with the rest of the projection, which is what happened here; six or seven picks in the top 10 would change if the Pirates don't do what I'm projecting here at No. 1 overall. A couple of notes before we get into the projection itself:
• Texas A&M starter John Stilson, who already projected as a reliever in pro ball due to a violent delivery, needs surgery to fix a SLAP lesion -- SLAP stands for superior labral from anterior to posterior, and is a type of labrum injury -- in his shoulder and is off the board.
• Another college starter who is destined for the 'pen, TCU righty Kyle Winkler, missed his second weekend in three, reportedly due to arm "tenderness," and probably has to have a good showing at next weekend's regional to put himself back in the top two rounds.
• We're hearing bonus demands on some players, but not all, making the demands that have leaked out (including Josh Bell's intention to send a letter to all 30 teams saying he'd prefer to go to the University of Texas) seem outsized in comparison. I've chosen not to react too strongly to those anecdotal reports until we have numbers in for more players.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates are still seriously on Danny Hultzen and Bubba Starling, and I wouldn't rule Anthony Rendon out entirely, but my gut tells me right now they'll find Cole's raw stuff -- he hit 101 for me on Friday night and touched 100 many times, including in the eighth inning -- too good to pass up.
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Rendon did play some second base in the Conference USA tournament, and while I don't see that as his future position, or know anyone who does, it would fit with the persistent rumor that Dustin Ackley is headed for left field. Francisco Lindor is still an outside possibility, as he was scheduled to work out for the Mariners, but even if Rendon goes first overall there's still a chance the Mariners take Cole or even Starling. (As for Rendon's position switch, is there a more insane idea than taking a player who has already suffered catastrophic injuries to both ankles and putting him at the most injury-prone position anywhere besides catcher? Are we trying to get Rendon killed? He's a plus defender at third, maybe more than just plus, when healthy. This is a totally unwarranted risk to take.)
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen is gone, it's Trevor Bauer or Dylan Bundy here, with Cole and Starling as backup plans. The D-backs had a small army at ASU to see both UCLA arms this weekend, including GM Kevin Towers, and Bauer hit 95 in the first and ninth innings while spinning a shutout. But Hultzen's been their guy all spring.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
If Bundy goes at No. 3 to Arizona, the Orioles have the other top Oklahoma prep arm, Archie Bradley, in their sights, and I wouldn't rule out Cole here, either.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Cole is still the dream scenario for the Royals, who could end up with Bundy, as well. They're determined to get a pitcher who'll move quickly through their system to the big leagues so that he arrives with all their other premium minor league talent, and given the depth of pitching in this draft they can do that without reaching in the least.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
I believe the player the Nationals covet here is Bauer, but they'd be happy with Bubba Starling, who'd give them another headline-grabbing prospect in a system that's already added two of them in the past two drafts. GM Mike Rizzo was also on hand to witness Bauer's shutout on Saturday, and I think they could pencil him into their late 2012 rotation with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Gray threw extremely well in the SEC tournament and seems to have established himself as Arizona's safe bet here with an unprotected pick, assuming that bigger names like Bundy are already gone.
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy
Cleveland's board is still wide open; the Indians have indicated they can go over slot, and have even been linked to Archie Bradley, although the biggest names right now are Lindor, Jed Bradley and Javier Baez. If Bauer actually gets here, he's their pick.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, (Gardner, Kan.)
They've also been tied to George Springer, Javier Baez and Archie Bradley, although the latter seems unlikely with the Cubs saying they're focusing on hitters. They sent a small army in to see Springer at the Big East tournament.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
I know they're also interested in Barnes and Gray but seem less interested in Lindor than previously thought. Spangenberg is very signable, key for an unprotected pick, but isn't too much of a reach due to his hit and run tools.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
It sounds like the Astros are prepared to tangle with Bradley's football scholarship to Oklahoma and potentially high price tag. Alternatives include Lindor and Jed Bradley (no relation).
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Still hearing the same batch of names here, primarily Jungmann, Mikie Mahtook, Cory Spangenberg and possibly Lindor or Springer. I'm still surprised by how little I'm hearing Jungmann's name, given how good he is. I'm also hearing Utah's C.J. Cron in the Brewers' mix at No. 12 or 15, more likely 15 since he won't go in between the picks. Taylor Guerrieri's also an outside possibility.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
I'm guessing they'll take a college player here and prepare to spend in later picks, with Michael, Mahtook and Jungmann all leading candidates. Earlier interest in Taylor Guerrieri seems to have cooled.
[h6]Florida Marlins [/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, CF, LSU
The Marlins haven't taken a college position player in the first round since 1996, when they took Fullerton star Mark Kotsay. Since then, the highest they've ever taken a college bat is in the sandwich round with Chris Coghlan in 2006. The Mahtook rumor here gained a lot of steam in the past week, buoyed by the fact they took him in the 39th round in 2008. (They also took outfielder Kess Carter, now a top 200-caliber player at Western Kentucky, in the 43rd round that year.) Spangenberg remains a possibility here and they're linked to every Florida high school player of note in every year.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Cron's a safe, signable plan at this spot, with big raw power and the potential to replace Prince Fielder in a year or two. If Mahtook's here, they'd probably take him, and Spangenberg would fit the bill as an athletic position player with a good swing who'll sign quickly, since this pick is unprotected.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Javier Baez, 3B, Arlington Country Day School (Jacksonville, Fla.)
This really depends on whether they'll be allowed by MLB to go over slot; other names in the mix include expensive guys like Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard and Taylor Guerrieri.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
The Halos are also linked to Guerrieri and Dillon Howard. I think they'd like Henry Owens if they were picking 10-15 spots lower.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
The A's would love Springer or Spangenberg and rate Josh Bell very highly even with his rising price tag. Joe Ross is a backup plan here, with Alex Meyer and Norris also in the conversation.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
This would be amusing since Boston took Meyer out of high school and made a pretty good run at signing him on deadline day in 2008. They'll take the best player who falls here but are less likely to take a prep arm than anything else.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
The Rockies are heavy on Wong and Cron, with one (non-Rockies) cross-checker indicating that he thought they were down to those two players for this pick.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
In just about any other draft Bradley would be a top 10-15 pick, but the depth of college arms and trouble with his breaking ball have him sliding on many boards, although he could still go as high as No. 8 (Indians) or 11 (Astros). The Jays will probably go college here and then mix in prep players, including over-slot guys, in later rounds, just as they did last year.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, (Columbia, S.C.)
I've heard mostly prep arms here, including Fernandez, although they have some interest in slugger Larry Greene.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Brian Goodwin, CF, Miami Dade College
Or Larry Greene, or Meyer if he should fall this far, although I think they'd take Goodwin over Greene.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State
Sounds like they'll try to take at least one high-probability player in the first round, with Susac, Cron and Wong all possibilities, as well as any premium arm that should slide here.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy (Ark.) HS
They're wide open with this, their regular (protected) pick, and more likely to go for upside or exceed slot. Tyler Beede is also possible here.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Josh Bell, OF, Dallas Jesuit Prep
They're being linked to Beede, of course, since he's the local kid, but their general preference is to do high school arms later in the draft. Bell could easily fall out of the first round as it sounds like his bonus demand is more than any team is (currently) willing to offer. But that could change, especially if a big-spending team like the Red Sox or Yankees (picking at No. 51) nabs him.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Keep hearing they want a college arm, and a lefty if one fits. That could be Anderson or Vanderbilt's Grayson Garvin or even Florida State's Sean Gilmartin, who'd be a reach in the late first round.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Atlanta will take the best player available, with high school preferred to college. One thing you can take to the bank is Atlanta sticking to slot, with team president John Schuerholz sitting at the head of MLB's draft reform committee.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Also hearing best player available here, with genuine interest in Stephenson beyond geography, as well as Ross and Norris.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Tyler Anderson and Wong are also in the mix here; Beede's price tag is reportedly big, as in top 5-to-10 picks big, but there's also a strong feeling he wants to sign.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Travis Harrison, 3B, Tustin (Calif.) HS
Harrison is making a late push for consideration in the 30-45 range after a slow showing early.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Johnny Eierman, SS, Warsaw (Mo.) HS
The Rays are aiming for upside wherever possible, especially if they can bank one higher-probability guy at 24, and all indications are that they will take the best players they can regardless of bonus demands or slot recommendations. Given where they draft now, it's their best chance to acquire stars. I've also heard Travis Harrison in Tampa's mix.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Still hearing Josh Osich connected with Texas but they could probably grab him with their next pick at 37, and Harrison is probably in the same boat.
• Texas A&M starter John Stilson, who already projected as a reliever in pro ball due to a violent delivery, needs surgery to fix a SLAP lesion -- SLAP stands for superior labral from anterior to posterior, and is a type of labrum injury -- in his shoulder and is off the board.
• Another college starter who is destined for the 'pen, TCU righty Kyle Winkler, missed his second weekend in three, reportedly due to arm "tenderness," and probably has to have a good showing at next weekend's regional to put himself back in the top two rounds.
• We're hearing bonus demands on some players, but not all, making the demands that have leaked out (including Josh Bell's intention to send a letter to all 30 teams saying he'd prefer to go to the University of Texas) seem outsized in comparison. I've chosen not to react too strongly to those anecdotal reports until we have numbers in for more players.
[h6]Pittsburgh Pirates
[/h6]
Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
The Pirates are still seriously on Danny Hultzen and Bubba Starling, and I wouldn't rule Anthony Rendon out entirely, but my gut tells me right now they'll find Cole's raw stuff -- he hit 101 for me on Friday night and touched 100 many times, including in the eighth inning -- too good to pass up.
[h6]Seattle Mariners[/h6]
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
Rendon did play some second base in the Conference USA tournament, and while I don't see that as his future position, or know anyone who does, it would fit with the persistent rumor that Dustin Ackley is headed for left field. Francisco Lindor is still an outside possibility, as he was scheduled to work out for the Mariners, but even if Rendon goes first overall there's still a chance the Mariners take Cole or even Starling. (As for Rendon's position switch, is there a more insane idea than taking a player who has already suffered catastrophic injuries to both ankles and putting him at the most injury-prone position anywhere besides catcher? Are we trying to get Rendon killed? He's a plus defender at third, maybe more than just plus, when healthy. This is a totally unwarranted risk to take.)
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
If Hultzen is gone, it's Trevor Bauer or Dylan Bundy here, with Cole and Starling as backup plans. The D-backs had a small army at ASU to see both UCLA arms this weekend, including GM Kevin Towers, and Bauer hit 95 in the first and ninth innings while spinning a shutout. But Hultzen's been their guy all spring.
[h6]Baltimore Orioles [/h6]
Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso (Okla.) HS
If Bundy goes at No. 3 to Arizona, the Orioles have the other top Oklahoma prep arm, Archie Bradley, in their sights, and I wouldn't rule out Cole here, either.
[h6]Kansas City Royals[/h6]
Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
Cole is still the dream scenario for the Royals, who could end up with Bundy, as well. They're determined to get a pitcher who'll move quickly through their system to the big leagues so that he arrives with all their other premium minor league talent, and given the depth of pitching in this draft they can do that without reaching in the least.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
I believe the player the Nationals covet here is Bauer, but they'd be happy with Bubba Starling, who'd give them another headline-grabbing prospect in a system that's already added two of them in the past two drafts. GM Mike Rizzo was also on hand to witness Bauer's shutout on Saturday, and I think they could pencil him into their late 2012 rotation with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.
[h6]Arizona Diamondbacks[/h6]
Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Gray threw extremely well in the SEC tournament and seems to have established himself as Arizona's safe bet here with an unprotected pick, assuming that bigger names like Bundy are already gone.
[h6]Cleveland Indians[/h6]
Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy
Cleveland's board is still wide open; the Indians have indicated they can go over slot, and have even been linked to Archie Bradley, although the biggest names right now are Lindor, Jed Bradley and Javier Baez. If Bauer actually gets here, he's their pick.
[h6]Chicago Cubs[/h6]
Bubba Starling, CF, Gardner-Edgerton HS, (Gardner, Kan.)
They've also been tied to George Springer, Javier Baez and Archie Bradley, although the latter seems unlikely with the Cubs saying they're focusing on hitters. They sent a small army in to see Springer at the Big East tournament.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Cory Spangenberg, 3B, Indian River State College
I know they're also interested in Barnes and Gray but seem less interested in Lindor than previously thought. Spangenberg is very signable, key for an unprotected pick, but isn't too much of a reach due to his hit and run tools.
[h6]Houston Astros[/h6]
Archie Bradley, RHP, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS
It sounds like the Astros are prepared to tangle with Bradley's football scholarship to Oklahoma and potentially high price tag. Alternatives include Lindor and Jed Bradley (no relation).
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
Still hearing the same batch of names here, primarily Jungmann, Mikie Mahtook, Cory Spangenberg and possibly Lindor or Springer. I'm still surprised by how little I'm hearing Jungmann's name, given how good he is. I'm also hearing Utah's C.J. Cron in the Brewers' mix at No. 12 or 15, more likely 15 since he won't go in between the picks. Taylor Guerrieri's also an outside possibility.
[h6]New York Mets[/h6]
Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
I'm guessing they'll take a college player here and prepare to spend in later picks, with Michael, Mahtook and Jungmann all leading candidates. Earlier interest in Taylor Guerrieri seems to have cooled.
[h6]Florida Marlins [/h6]
Mikie Mahtook, CF, LSU
The Marlins haven't taken a college position player in the first round since 1996, when they took Fullerton star Mark Kotsay. Since then, the highest they've ever taken a college bat is in the sandwich round with Chris Coghlan in 2006. The Mahtook rumor here gained a lot of steam in the past week, buoyed by the fact they took him in the 39th round in 2008. (They also took outfielder Kess Carter, now a top 200-caliber player at Western Kentucky, in the 43rd round that year.) Spangenberg remains a possibility here and they're linked to every Florida high school player of note in every year.
[h6]Milwaukee Brewers[/h6]
C.J. Cron, 1B, Utah
Cron's a safe, signable plan at this spot, with big raw power and the potential to replace Prince Fielder in a year or two. If Mahtook's here, they'd probably take him, and Spangenberg would fit the bill as an athletic position player with a good swing who'll sign quickly, since this pick is unprotected.
[h6]Los Angeles Dodgers[/h6]
Javier Baez, 3B, Arlington Country Day School (Jacksonville, Fla.)
This really depends on whether they'll be allowed by MLB to go over slot; other names in the mix include expensive guys like Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard and Taylor Guerrieri.
[h6]Los Angeles Angels[/h6]
Jose Fernandez, RHP, Alonso HS (Tampa, Fla.)
The Halos are also linked to Guerrieri and Dillon Howard. I think they'd like Henry Owens if they were picking 10-15 spots lower.
[h6]Oakland Athletics [/h6]
George Springer, OF, UConn
The A's would love Springer or Spangenberg and rate Josh Bell very highly even with his rising price tag. Joe Ross is a backup plan here, with Alex Meyer and Norris also in the conversation.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Alex Meyer, RHP, Kentucky
This would be amusing since Boston took Meyer out of high school and made a pretty good run at signing him on deadline day in 2008. They'll take the best player who falls here but are less likely to take a prep arm than anything else.
[h6]Colorado Rockies [/h6]
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii
The Rockies are heavy on Wong and Cron, with one (non-Rockies) cross-checker indicating that he thought they were down to those two players for this pick.
[h6]Toronto Blue Jays[/h6]
Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
In just about any other draft Bradley would be a top 10-15 pick, but the depth of college arms and trouble with his breaking ball have him sliding on many boards, although he could still go as high as No. 8 (Indians) or 11 (Astros). The Jays will probably go college here and then mix in prep players, including over-slot guys, in later rounds, just as they did last year.
[h6]St. Louis Cardinals[/h6]
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS, (Columbia, S.C.)
I've heard mostly prep arms here, including Fernandez, although they have some interest in slugger Larry Greene.
[h6]Washington Nationals[/h6]
Brian Goodwin, CF, Miami Dade College
Or Larry Greene, or Meyer if he should fall this far, although I think they'd take Goodwin over Greene.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Andrew Susac, C, Oregon State
Sounds like they'll try to take at least one high-probability player in the first round, with Susac, Cron and Wong all possibilities, as well as any premium arm that should slide here.
[h6]San Diego Padres[/h6]
Dillon Howard, RHP, Searcy (Ark.) HS
They're wide open with this, their regular (protected) pick, and more likely to go for upside or exceed slot. Tyler Beede is also possible here.
[h6]Boston Red Sox[/h6]
Josh Bell, OF, Dallas Jesuit Prep
They're being linked to Beede, of course, since he's the local kid, but their general preference is to do high school arms later in the draft. Bell could easily fall out of the first round as it sounds like his bonus demand is more than any team is (currently) willing to offer. But that could change, especially if a big-spending team like the Red Sox or Yankees (picking at No. 51) nabs him.
[h6]Cincinnati Reds[/h6]
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon
Keep hearing they want a college arm, and a lefty if one fits. That could be Anderson or Vanderbilt's Grayson Garvin or even Florida State's Sean Gilmartin, who'd be a reach in the late first round.
[h6]Atlanta Braves[/h6]
Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS (Oakland, Calif.)
Atlanta will take the best player available, with high school preferred to college. One thing you can take to the bank is Atlanta sticking to slot, with team president John Schuerholz sitting at the head of MLB's draft reform committee.
[h6]San Francisco[/h6]
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Alhambra (Calif.) HS
Also hearing best player available here, with genuine interest in Stephenson beyond geography, as well as Ross and Norris.
[h6]Minnesota Twins[/h6]
Tyler Beede, RHP, Lawrence Academy (Groton, Mass.)
Tyler Anderson and Wong are also in the mix here; Beede's price tag is reportedly big, as in top 5-to-10 picks big, but there's also a strong feeling he wants to sign.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Travis Harrison, 3B, Tustin (Calif.) HS
Harrison is making a late push for consideration in the 30-45 range after a slow showing early.
[h6]Tampa Bay Rays[/h6]
Johnny Eierman, SS, Warsaw (Mo.) HS
The Rays are aiming for upside wherever possible, especially if they can bank one higher-probability guy at 24, and all indications are that they will take the best players they can regardless of bonus demands or slot recommendations. Given where they draft now, it's their best chance to acquire stars. I've also heard Travis Harrison in Tampa's mix.
[h6]Texas Rangers[/h6]
Brandon Nimmo, OF, East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.)
Still hearing Josh Osich connected with Texas but they could probably grab him with their next pick at 37, and Harrison is probably in the same boat.
Pineda.
Spoiler [+]
You'd be forgiven if you didn't expect Michael Pineda to out-pitch his Cy Young rotation mate, Felix Hernandez, especially at the outset of his rookie season. Before King Felix, the Seattle Mariners' organization had a poor track record in developing young pitchers, so perhaps Pineda was overlooked.
But the 22-year-old has been more effective than most expected in his first two months in the majors. After his dominant 7-inning, 9-strikeout start against the San Diego Padres on May 21, Pineda ranked among the league leaders in most statistical categories. His high strikeout total and low home run and walk rates suggest that Pineda has been more than just lucky so far. His fantastic start has kept the afterthought Mariners in the thick of the American League West race.
What's the secret to his success? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that hitters have rarely pulled the ball against the young Mariners' right hander. Baseball Info Solutions' data confirms this: Pineda has allowed hitters to pull just 31 percent of batted balls, compared to the 2011 league average of 40 percent. Only Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw have been better at avoiding the pulled ball.
[h4]Going the other way[/h4]
Michael Pineda has allowed the third-fewest amount of pulled balls against him.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]28%[/td][td]37%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Kershaw[/td][td]31%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]31%[/td][td]38%[/td][td]31%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Harang[/td][td]31%[/td][td]42%[/td][td]27%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roy Oswalt[/td][td]32%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]33%[/td][/tr][tr][td]League Average[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
What's the big deal about pulling the ball? The answer is in the numbers. Batters hit over 60 points higher and slug 200 points better when pulling the ball compared to going the other way, and they hit over four times more home runs to the pull field.
As the astute reader might point out, pulled ground balls, line drives and fly balls are very different animals. Pineda gets relatively few ground balls; in fact, he's been one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball, largely thanks to his heater. When hitters have caught up to Pineda's 96 mph fastball this season, they've hit a fly ball 61 percent of the time, the third-highest fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball this year.
Hitters pull ground balls, on average, 54 percent of the time, compared to just 12 percent hit to the opposite field. However, only 24 percent of fly balls are hit to the hitters' pull side, compared to 40 percent of flies hit the other way.
[h4]Power to all fields[/h4]
A breakdown of the type and direction of batted balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ground Balls[/td][td]54%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Line Drives[/td][td]38%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fly Balls[/td][td]24%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]All[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
Fly ball pitchers like Pineda have to be cautious, because when hitters do pull the ball on a fly, the damage can often be catastrophic. An amazing 26 percent of pulled fly balls have left the park as home runs this year, which is actually down slightly from 27 percent last year. By comparison, only 4 percent of fly balls hit to center and 2 percent of opposite field flies result in home runs.
[h4]Beware of the pull[/h4]
MLB averages by direction of fly balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Batting Average[/td][td]0.402[/td][td]0.194[/td][td]0.141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slugging Percentage[/td][td]1.297[/td][td]0.426[/td][td]0.283[/td][/tr][tr][td]Home Run Rate[/td][td]26.0%[/td][td]4.3%[/td][td]2.2%[/td][/tr][/table]
As Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Info recently illustrated, Pineda has shown an affinity for the outside corner to both right-handed hitters and lefties, especially early in the at-bat. With Pineda living on the outside edge, hitters are forced to go with the pitch and push it to the opposite field, where they usually do the least damage.
Through his May 21 start, just 12 of the 71 fly balls (17 percent, compared to the league average of 24 percent) Pineda have been pulled. Combine that with a spacious home ball park in Safeco Field, and Pineda's home run rate is predictably low, which in turn has helped keep his ERA low.
But will he keep it up? Will Pineda continue to induce opposite field fly balls and avoid the deadly pulled side as he has so far in 2011?
The short answer is yes, to a certain extent. For the 100 pitchers last season who induced at least 200 batted balls both before and after July 1 of last season, their ground ball and fly ball rates correlated extremely well, at the .80 level. This suggests that Pineda is likely to continue inducing fly balls at the high rate we've seen from him so far.
However, the pulled fly ball percentage correlation was weaker at .34. For now we can presume that there's a reasonable chance Pineda will continue to avoid pulled fly balls, but he likely will regress to the league average rate a good amount. Of course, his home park will still be on his side; just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels about Safeco Field's treatment of fly balls. Even with some regression, Pineda has a very bright future ahead of him.
But the 22-year-old has been more effective than most expected in his first two months in the majors. After his dominant 7-inning, 9-strikeout start against the San Diego Padres on May 21, Pineda ranked among the league leaders in most statistical categories. His high strikeout total and low home run and walk rates suggest that Pineda has been more than just lucky so far. His fantastic start has kept the afterthought Mariners in the thick of the American League West race.
What's the secret to his success? Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that hitters have rarely pulled the ball against the young Mariners' right hander. Baseball Info Solutions' data confirms this: Pineda has allowed hitters to pull just 31 percent of batted balls, compared to the 2011 league average of 40 percent. Only Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw have been better at avoiding the pulled ball.
[h4]Going the other way[/h4]
Michael Pineda has allowed the third-fewest amount of pulled balls against him.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]28%[/td][td]37%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Kershaw[/td][td]31%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]36%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]31%[/td][td]38%[/td][td]31%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Harang[/td][td]31%[/td][td]42%[/td][td]27%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roy Oswalt[/td][td]32%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]33%[/td][/tr][tr][td]League Average[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
What's the big deal about pulling the ball? The answer is in the numbers. Batters hit over 60 points higher and slug 200 points better when pulling the ball compared to going the other way, and they hit over four times more home runs to the pull field.
As the astute reader might point out, pulled ground balls, line drives and fly balls are very different animals. Pineda gets relatively few ground balls; in fact, he's been one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball, largely thanks to his heater. When hitters have caught up to Pineda's 96 mph fastball this season, they've hit a fly ball 61 percent of the time, the third-highest fly ball rate of any pitcher in baseball this year.
Hitters pull ground balls, on average, 54 percent of the time, compared to just 12 percent hit to the opposite field. However, only 24 percent of fly balls are hit to the hitters' pull side, compared to 40 percent of flies hit the other way.
[h4]Power to all fields[/h4]
A breakdown of the type and direction of batted balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ground Balls[/td][td]54%[/td][td]34%[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Line Drives[/td][td]38%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fly Balls[/td][td]24%[/td][td]36%[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]All[/td][td]40%[/td][td]35%[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][/table]
Fly ball pitchers like Pineda have to be cautious, because when hitters do pull the ball on a fly, the damage can often be catastrophic. An amazing 26 percent of pulled fly balls have left the park as home runs this year, which is actually down slightly from 27 percent last year. By comparison, only 4 percent of fly balls hit to center and 2 percent of opposite field flies result in home runs.
[h4]Beware of the pull[/h4]
MLB averages by direction of fly balls in 2011.
[table][tr][th=""]Category[/th][th=""]Pulled[/th][th=""]Up the Middle[/th][th=""]Opposite Field[/th][/tr][tr][td]Batting Average[/td][td]0.402[/td][td]0.194[/td][td]0.141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slugging Percentage[/td][td]1.297[/td][td]0.426[/td][td]0.283[/td][/tr][tr][td]Home Run Rate[/td][td]26.0%[/td][td]4.3%[/td][td]2.2%[/td][/tr][/table]
As Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Info recently illustrated, Pineda has shown an affinity for the outside corner to both right-handed hitters and lefties, especially early in the at-bat. With Pineda living on the outside edge, hitters are forced to go with the pitch and push it to the opposite field, where they usually do the least damage.
Through his May 21 start, just 12 of the 71 fly balls (17 percent, compared to the league average of 24 percent) Pineda have been pulled. Combine that with a spacious home ball park in Safeco Field, and Pineda's home run rate is predictably low, which in turn has helped keep his ERA low.
But will he keep it up? Will Pineda continue to induce opposite field fly balls and avoid the deadly pulled side as he has so far in 2011?
The short answer is yes, to a certain extent. For the 100 pitchers last season who induced at least 200 batted balls both before and after July 1 of last season, their ground ball and fly ball rates correlated extremely well, at the .80 level. This suggests that Pineda is likely to continue inducing fly balls at the high rate we've seen from him so far.
However, the pulled fly ball percentage correlation was weaker at .34. For now we can presume that there's a reasonable chance Pineda will continue to avoid pulled fly balls, but he likely will regress to the league average rate a good amount. Of course, his home park will still be on his side; just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels about Safeco Field's treatment of fly balls. Even with some regression, Pineda has a very bright future ahead of him.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Night off for Elvis?[/h3]
11:14AM ET
[h5]Elvis Andrus | Rangers [/h5]
Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus could get the night off Tuesday after getting spiked by teammate Michael Young in the left foot in Monday's win over the Rays, says MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Andrus did not play in the ninth inning Monday and was replaced by Andres Blanco, who could get the start if Andrus is not ready.
Young was starting at second base because Ian Kinsler was given the day off. Sullivan adds that Young is expected to start at second with Kinsler at DH on Tuesday.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Johnson's return delayed?[/h3]
10:56AM ET
[h5]Josh Johnson | Marlins [/h5]
The Marlins were hoping sidelined ace Josh Johnson would be ready to return June 7, the next time they need a fifth starter, but that now looks like wishful thinking.
Manager Edwin Rodriguez was not overly optimistic that Johnson, on the DL with shoulder inflammation, would be ready in time and Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel says the Fish are considering alternatives.
The Marlins will likely try to stay away from Brian Sanches, a veteran reliever who worked three innings in an emergency start last weekend.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Back issues for Ramirez[/h3]
10:35AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
We may have a reason for the dramatic fall in production this season by http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez.
The Marlins' All-Star shortstop was out of Monday lineup against the D-backs at Chase Field because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding Monday it?s the worst pain he?s experienced.
The Marlins have been playing over their heads and will be hard pressed to continue on that path without Ramirez, even if he is hitting a mere .210 with 17 RBI. The Marlins are saying Ramirez is day-to-day, but a return in the next day or two seems unlikely.
Emilio Bonifacio started at shortsop against the D-backs Monday and has 22 career starts at the position.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pudge to the Giants?[/h3]
10:16AM ET
[h5]Ivan Rodriguez | Nationals [/h5]
UPDATE: ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets Tuesday that the Nationals have reached out to the Giants to gauge their interest in Rodriguez, but adds it "doesn't appear as if a lot of progress has been made."
--
UPDATE: The Nationals are not planning on dealing Rodriguez, reports Adam Kilgore, but that doesn't mean they won't. "To move him, it would have to be a good deal that helps us long term, not a quick fix trade for offense to get us to the time when Ryan Zimmerman is back," Rizzo said. "Pudge would be a big piece for a contending team if they needed a catcher."
It sure sounds like posturing, doesn't it?
--
In the wake of the injury to Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants are likely to hit the market for catching. Eli Whiteside will be joined by Chris Stewart in the meantime, but our own Jim Bowden has a suggestion via Twitter: "Nats should offer Pudge to Giants and give at-bats to their young catchers."
This makes so much sense that it probably has no chance of happening. Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos are the immediate future behind the plate for the Nationals with Derek Norris on the way. Pudge could step in with Whiteside in San Francisco and solidify the catching position.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Dave Cameron[/h5]
Is Pudge the answer in SF?
11:14AM ET
[h5]Elvis Andrus | Rangers [/h5]
Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus could get the night off Tuesday after getting spiked by teammate Michael Young in the left foot in Monday's win over the Rays, says MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Andrus did not play in the ninth inning Monday and was replaced by Andres Blanco, who could get the start if Andrus is not ready.
Young was starting at second base because Ian Kinsler was given the day off. Sullivan adds that Young is expected to start at second with Kinsler at DH on Tuesday.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Johnson's return delayed?[/h3]
10:56AM ET
[h5]Josh Johnson | Marlins [/h5]
The Marlins were hoping sidelined ace Josh Johnson would be ready to return June 7, the next time they need a fifth starter, but that now looks like wishful thinking.
Manager Edwin Rodriguez was not overly optimistic that Johnson, on the DL with shoulder inflammation, would be ready in time and Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel says the Fish are considering alternatives.
The Marlins will likely try to stay away from Brian Sanches, a veteran reliever who worked three innings in an emergency start last weekend.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Back issues for Ramirez[/h3]
10:35AM ET
[h5]Hanley Ramirez | Marlins [/h5]
We may have a reason for the dramatic fall in production this season by http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez.
The Marlins' All-Star shortstop was out of Monday lineup against the D-backs at Chase Field because of continued stiffness in his lower back that forced him to leave Sunday's game in Los Angeles.
Ramirez tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel that he's felt discomfort for about a month, adding Monday it?s the worst pain he?s experienced.
The Marlins have been playing over their heads and will be hard pressed to continue on that path without Ramirez, even if he is hitting a mere .210 with 17 RBI. The Marlins are saying Ramirez is day-to-day, but a return in the next day or two seems unlikely.
Emilio Bonifacio started at shortsop against the D-backs Monday and has 22 career starts at the position.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pudge to the Giants?[/h3]
10:16AM ET
[h5]Ivan Rodriguez | Nationals [/h5]
UPDATE: ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets Tuesday that the Nationals have reached out to the Giants to gauge their interest in Rodriguez, but adds it "doesn't appear as if a lot of progress has been made."
--
UPDATE: The Nationals are not planning on dealing Rodriguez, reports Adam Kilgore, but that doesn't mean they won't. "To move him, it would have to be a good deal that helps us long term, not a quick fix trade for offense to get us to the time when Ryan Zimmerman is back," Rizzo said. "Pudge would be a big piece for a contending team if they needed a catcher."
It sure sounds like posturing, doesn't it?
--
In the wake of the injury to Buster Posey, the San Francisco Giants are likely to hit the market for catching. Eli Whiteside will be joined by Chris Stewart in the meantime, but our own Jim Bowden has a suggestion via Twitter: "Nats should offer Pudge to Giants and give at-bats to their young catchers."
This makes so much sense that it probably has no chance of happening. Jesus Flores and Wilson Ramos are the immediate future behind the plate for the Nationals with Derek Norris on the way. Pudge could step in with Whiteside in San Francisco and solidify the catching position.
- Jason A. Churchill
Is Pudge the answer in SF?
10:08AM ET
[h5]Adam Lind | Blue Jays [/h5]
UPDATE: Lind tripled, singled, walked and struck out in four extended spring training at-bats Monday. Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun says Lind is working toward rejoining the Jays for their next road trip to Baltimore and Kansas City starting Monday.
--
Adam Lind has been out since May 7 with a sore back but is getting closer to returning, reports MLB.com. That can only be good news for Jose Bautista who could suffer from a lack of lineup protection as the season progresses.
The club will use Yunel Escobar in the cleanup spot this week after Aaron Hill, Juan Rivera and Edwin Encarnacion have seen time in that spot.
Lind, however, may not play regularly in the field once he does get back in attempt to keep him healthy. He will, however, jump back into the cleanup role.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Damage control by La Russa?[/h3]
10:02AM ET
[h5]Jaime Garcia | Cardinals [/h5]
Could Cardinals lefthander Jaime Garcia be a little perturbed with how he was used in Saturday's start in Colorado?
According to Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch, manager Tony La Russa met with Garcia before Sunday's game to help clarify "any mixed messages" the pitcher may have taken from Saturday's trip to the woodshed.
Garcia surrendered 12 runs (11 earned) to the Rockies, and his pitch count reached 107 before he was lifted after 3 1/3 innings. With no day off scheduled for Monday, La Russa said he wanted to avoid overworking his bullpen.
Garcia took one for the team, and his ERA leaped from 1.93 to 3.28 in a single outing. Pitchers, like all players, can be sensitive about their statistics, and La Russa might have been doing a little damage control.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Coke eyes June 8 return[/h3]
9:45AM ET
[h5]Phil Coke | Tigers [/h5]
Phil Coke expects to need just one rehab start and is on pace to return to the Detroit Tigers' rotation June 8 in Texas, reports Mark Snyder of the Free Press.
Coke, who landed on the disabled list last week with a bone bruise, said he has no pain in his foot and is ready to make one rehab start for Triple-A Toledo on Friday. Coke is just 1-5 with a 3.81 ERA, but has often been the victim of limited run support.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Barton to drop down in order?[/h3]
9:34AM ET
[h5]Daric Barton | Athletics [/h5]
Daric Barton still has the support of Oakland manager Bob Geren, even if it may be from a different perch in the batting order.
Geren hinted Monday that he might drop Barton down in the order after the first baseman went 0-for-4 against the Yankees, lowering his batting average to .206. Barton has hit second in all 49 games in which he has played.
One possibility for the two hole is David DeJesus, who primarily hit first and second with the Royals and is hitting close to .300 in his last 17 games. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that Ryan Sweeney and Cliff Pennington are other options for Geren.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Ike's return delayed[/h3]
9:17AM ET
[h5]Ike Davis | Mets [/h5]
Mets first baseman Ike Davis eyed a return from the disabled list olast Thursday, the first day he was eligible, but that was way too optimistic.
Davis was re-examined Monday night because the Mets are concerned with how long it has taken him to recover from the left ankle sprain and bone bruise, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post. The Mets hope to get an updated prognosis on Tuesday.
Daniel Murphy has been getting the bulk of the playing time at first base in the absence of Davis, who is hitting .302.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Webb's rehab start[/h3]
9:09AM ET
[h5]Brandon Webb | Rangers [/h5]
UPDATE: Webb made his first professional start since Opening Day of 2009, allowing five runs on eight hits in 31/3 innings for Double-A Frisco on Monday. The numbers are less important than Webb saying afterwards that he came through the outing healthy.
It's still too early to put a timetable on Webb's return. He speculated that he would be doing another rehab start in another five or six days.
--
UPDATE: Webb will start a rehab assignment Monday, reports Jeff Wilson, and has been cleared for three or four innings in his first outing. He threw a bullpen session Friday.
The Rangers have 30 days from Monday to activate the right-hander, assign him to a minor league roster or shut him down again.
...
Brandon Webb may finally be making legitimate progress toward a return to the big leagues, reports ESPNDallas.com.
Webb threw 55 of 79 pitches for strikes over six frames in Arizona and the report says Webb hit 84 mph on the radar gun, still 4-6 mph below where he was prior to the injury.
Anything Webb gives the Rangers in 2011 is a bonus at this point, but it appears it's all about building arm strength, not avoiding pain.
- Jason Churchill
http://[h3]Soria's future in KC[/h3]
8:51AM ET
[h5]Joakim Soria | Royals [/h5]
Royals manager Ned Yost said it is time for http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28688/joakim-soriaJoakim Soria to be used in "less pressure situations." That is often a euphemism for a flat-out benching, and Yost may be facing a delicate balancing act with how to use the deposed over the next few weeks.
Following another meltdown by Soria Monday against the Angels, Yost will work Aaron Crow into the closer's role, at least for the time being. Crow is the logical choice after going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in 22 games. "I was told it was just temporary until Jack gets back to his old self. Then he'll be back closing out like he used to," Crow tells the Kansas City Star.
Soria's confidence has been eroded by five blown saves, but this is a pitcher with a proven track record of 139 career saves. But if Crow were to take the closer's job and run with it, could the Royals be looking to deal Soria?
Soria makes a relatively modest $4 million this season, and the Royals have contract options for each of the next three seasons, beginning with an affordable $6 million in 2012. He remains a key part of the Royals future, but things can change quickly, especially since his salary numbers only enhance his trade value.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Murphy on the block?[/h3]
8:17AM ET
[h5]David Murphy | Rangers [/h5]
A quality left fielder is hard to find, and that could make the Rangers' David Murphy a valuable bargaining chip, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.
Sullivan writes that major league left fielders went in to Memorial Day with a combined .713 OPS, the lowest from that position in the past 30 years. Murphy has done little to bolster those numbers with a .626 OPS, but his career .784 OPS suggests the current number is an aberration.
With Josh Hamilton back from the disabled list, Murphy is back to being a fourth outfielder. Speculation in the past week has the Rangers looking for relief help, and Murphy could be trade bait.
If Murphy is traded, the Rangers lose a valuable insurance policy behind the injury-plagued Hamilton.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Garza could return Sunday[/h3]
7:56AM ET
[h5]Matt Garza | Cubs [/h5]
The injury-plagued Chicago Cubs could have Matt Garza back in the rotation as soon as Sunday against the Cardinals after the righthander threw on flat ground and played long toss Monday.
Garza has been sidelined since May 17 with tightness in his right elbow. Garza felt he didn?t need to go on the disabled list in the first place, so a quick return seems plausible.
The return of Garza would likely move the recently acquired Rodrigo Lopez, who started Monday against Houston, back to the bullpen.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Replacing Soriano [/h3]
7:38AM ET
[h5]Alfonso Soriano | Cubs [/h5]
Already dealing with the rash of injuries, the Chicago Cubs are awaiting word on the status of left fielder Alfonso Soriano, who left Monday's game against Houston in the first inning with a strained left quadriceps and underwent an MRI.
The Cubs had already placed utility infielder Jeff Baker on the 15-day disabled list earlier Monday, a day after putting Reed Johnson on the DL with back spasms. Center fielder Marlon Byrd already is on the DL, as are pitchers Andrew Cahsner and Matt Garza.
Blake DeWitt took in left field Monday and will get the bulk of playing time unless the Cubs tap into the farm system again, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. DeWitt has started just five games in the field this season and had never played the outfield in the big leagues until this year.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Reyes to play Thursday?[/h3]
7:17AM ET
[h5]Jose Reyes | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets barely missed Jose Reyes Monday, collecting 15 hits in a 7-3 win over the Pirates, but few expect that production to continue without the star shortstop in the lineup.
Reyes was placed on the bereavement list after learning of the death of his paternal grandmother and left the team Monday to fly home to Santiago, Dominican Republic. A player on the bereavement must miss a minimum of three days and a maximum of seven days.
Reyes told ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas that he hopes to return Wednesday, making him eligible to return Thursday afternoon against the Pirates. In the meantime, Mets fans will get a look at Ruben Tejada, billed as the shortstop of the future under the likely scenario that Reyes is either traded or departs via free agency.
Trade targets in the corner OF.
Trade targerts at 1B/DH.
Giants pitching.
Rays defense.
New closer for the Royals.
The Slow Decline of A-Rod.
Spoiler [+]
PLAYER: Andre Ethier
TEAM: Dodgers
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $9.25M, arbitration-eligible after this season (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.6
Corner outfield ranks as one of the thinnest positions for available talent, so we’re including a pair of front-line players from teams with ownership problems to lead off.
Frank McCourt reportedly faces a budget crisis with the next round of payroll expenses coming due June 15; more broadly, MLB could prompt the Dodgers to cut salary as the league works to find a new ownership group. Ethier is the team’s third-highest-paid player (behind…Rafael Furcal and Hiroki Kuroda?). He’s also one of the Dodgers’ best players, ranked 7th among MLB right fielders (an insane group that includes out-of-their-mind starts by Jose Bautista, Matt Joyce, and Lance Berkman) in wOBA. UZR hates Ethier (combined -38.3 fielding runs last three years), holding down his rest-of-season projection. Still, if the Dodgers do make Ethier available, he’d instantly become the most sought-after corner OF commodity, both for his bat and having another year left before free agency (albeit at a big price).
So, will it happen? You’d think the Dodgers would sooner try to move less exciting vets like Casey Blake before they hack into their core. Having an MLB team as a ward of the state (or at least under MLB’s close eye) hasn’t triggered any recent in-season fire sales either. The Texas Rangers added one of the best pitchers in baseball in Cliff Lee last summer — as well as veterans like Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu — even as the team was about to be auctioned off in bankruptcy court. Even the downtrodden Montreal Expos didn’t slash payroll when they were owned by MLB and rumored to be contraction targets in 2002; Dealin’ Omar Minaya instead engineered deals for Bartolo Colom and Cliff Floyd, with the Colon deal still ranking as one of the most generous prospect giveaways of all-time. Throw in Ned Colletti’s history of fetishizing veterans and (over)reaching even when on the periphery of a pennant race (see: Carlos Santana for Casey Blake), and it would probably take a big offer to land Ethier.
Still, Ethier would look a hell of a lot better than Raul Ibanez in the Phillies outfield, wouldn’t he?
PLAYER: Carlos Beltran
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: $18.5M, Walk year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.4
One of the most attractive corner outfield options is also one of the most difficult to peg. For the Trade Target series, we’re using rest-of-season ZiPS to project players’ offensive value, then three-year UZR to peg the defense. Of course the problem (well, one of them) in this case is that Beltran played just 145 games in the past two seasons combined. His .274/.363/.514, .379 wOBA start to this season is roughly in line with his .380 wOBA 2008 campaign. But Beltran derived his massive 7.6 WAR that season from uncommon durability (161 games) as well as defensive value that no longer applies (12.4 UZR and a Gold Glove playing center field then, vs. average to below-average defense playing a corner OF slot now).
Still, this rest-of-season WAR projection assumes Beltran misses about a quarter of his remaining games, and that he doesn’t leave Citi Field. A move to, say, Cleveland would plop Beltran into a more favorable park for hitters. If Travis Hafner returns to the Indians lineup at 100%, and Grady Sizemore becomes healthy enough to be a productive everyday center fielder again, you won’t see this kind of deal happen. But based on their track record of the past few years, you can’t bet on both happening.
The key here — other than the health of Hafner and Sizemore — will be money. Even with a fresh cash influx from new minority owner David Einhorn, the Mets probably wouldn’t mind ditching the rest of Beltran’s $18.5 million salary. If he were to be dealt fairly soon and Beltran’s health holds up, a gain of 2 or more wins for the team that trades for him is possible. As with many deadline trades in recent years, the Beltran-receiving team could ask the Mets pick up a significant chunk of Beltran’s remaining salary in exchange for giving up a better prospect (Beltran also has a no-trade clause in his contract which adds another layer of complexity).
A team like the Indians, without a ton of cash to spend that also places great value on young talent, would have to find a middle ground between financial help and not mortgaging the farm. Still, flags fly forever, and the Tribe has a legitimate chance for some big things this season. Beltran could greatly help their cause.
PLAYER: Luke Scott
TEAM: Orioles
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: $6.4M, arbitration-eligible after this season, likely non-tender
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Seems like he’s been around forever, doesn’t it? Yet the soon-to-be 33-year-old Scott isn’t slated to hit six-year free agency until after the 2012 season. No matter — he’s a likely non-tender after year, making him a straight rental for a contending team.
Scott’s off to a crummy start this year at .232/.316/.413, .319 wOBA, particularly given his limited defensive value. The highest strikeout rate since his rookie season and the highest swinging-strike rate of his career makes you wonder if his career might already be in decline. On the other hand, Scott hit .285/.368/.535 last year, without any underlying stats looking too far out of whack. That HR/FB rate has a good chance to bump higher from its current career-low of 12.5%, which would help his numbers across the board. The Orioles will likely be motivated to move Scott too, given Nolan Reimold‘s recent (small-sample) emergence and the team’s longer-term outlook (Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero look like crappy off-season signings).
So which team would be the best fit? Ideally a club seeking left-handed sock that could slot Scott at first base and DH as well as left field. The Rays have a bigger need for right-handed hitting, and both Brandon Guyer and Desmond Jennings could be solid internal options, once they’re over the Super 2 hump. Still, the Rays could stand to add power where Casey Kotchman and Sam Fuld primarily offer defensive value (unless you think Kotchman’s going to hit .361 all year). The price for Scott should also be low enough for even the notoriously prospect-clingy Rays to justify a move.
PLAYER: Kosuke Fukudome
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Giants
CONTRACT STATUS: $13.5M, walk year (Cubs must sign Fukudome to an extension by Nov. 15 or release him, allowing him to become a free agent)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.6
Fukudome owns one of the weirdest statistical profiles in the game this season. He’d shown modest, accelerating power in his first three major league seasons; his ISO has plunged to .063 this year. He’d never hit higher than .263 in the the majors before; he’s at .315 this year, thanks to a sky-high .382 BABIP. He went from a decent gloveman in right field his first couple seasons to below average last year; he’s on pace to be one of the worst fielders in the game this season, depending on how much you trust single-season UZR figures. But man, the guy sure can walk. Fukudome has hiked his walk rate to a career-best 16.7% this season; he’d rank 8th in MLB if he had a few more at-bats to qualify among league leaders.
So what can kind of market value does an aging, small-to-moderate power, lousy-defense, high-walk, inflated .435 OBP corner fielder with a no-trade clause have on the open market? If the Cubs would be willing to pick up the bulk of his remaining ’11 salary, Fukudome becomes one of the most attractive top-of-the-order candidates on the trade market. He would add a welcome jolt of on-base ability to a Giants team that, with Buster Posey out for the year, needs more help than Brandon Belt alone can provide. They’ve got to do better than the 4th-worst team OBP (.304) in MLB if they’re going to defend their title.
PLAYER: Jeff Francoeur
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Diamondbacks
CONTRACT STATUS: $2.5M, mutual option for 2012 (in other words, bye-bye, Jeffy)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.4
One of Sabermetria’s favorite whipping boys, Francoeur has always had his uses, even at the worst of times. He’s a career .302/.346/.494 hitter vs. lefty pitching. He’s got roughly league-average range, which along with a great throwing arm make him an above-average right fielder. He gives great quote. And of course there’s this. Are we seeing a legitimate breakout this year, into something more?
Francoeur’s ISO (.212) and wOBA (.363) are at their highest level since his terrific rookie season. He’s still just 27 years old, so a power breakout at this stage is certainly possible. Other encouraging signs: .299 BABIP right in line with his career average, and the lowest swinging strike rate and second-highest contact rate of his career. Still, his groundball rate is up, and much of his production can be linked to a big spike in HR/FB rate. In short…we just don’t know.
Here’s what we do know: The Royals have a ton of excellent prospects rising through the system, including 20-year-old outfielder prospect Wil Myers. After a hot start, they’ve faded badly and look unlikely to contend this season. And Francoeur’s dirt-cheap salary could make him a more likely trade candidate than anyone else on this list.
The Rangers used Francoeur as a platoon man and bench piece on their way to the World Series last year. Arizona would be a perfect destination this year. Gerardo Parra has leverage fantastic defense and deft baserunning into a successful season. But he also sports a 626 OPS vs. lefties, and neither Xavier Nady nor Willie Bloomquist provide viable platoons. Even with serious long-term debt and hopes for longer-term success, the DBacks could swing a deal for Francoeur without killing their bottom line, or their future.
TEAM: Dodgers
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $9.25M, arbitration-eligible after this season (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.6
Corner outfield ranks as one of the thinnest positions for available talent, so we’re including a pair of front-line players from teams with ownership problems to lead off.
Frank McCourt reportedly faces a budget crisis with the next round of payroll expenses coming due June 15; more broadly, MLB could prompt the Dodgers to cut salary as the league works to find a new ownership group. Ethier is the team’s third-highest-paid player (behind…Rafael Furcal and Hiroki Kuroda?). He’s also one of the Dodgers’ best players, ranked 7th among MLB right fielders (an insane group that includes out-of-their-mind starts by Jose Bautista, Matt Joyce, and Lance Berkman) in wOBA. UZR hates Ethier (combined -38.3 fielding runs last three years), holding down his rest-of-season projection. Still, if the Dodgers do make Ethier available, he’d instantly become the most sought-after corner OF commodity, both for his bat and having another year left before free agency (albeit at a big price).
So, will it happen? You’d think the Dodgers would sooner try to move less exciting vets like Casey Blake before they hack into their core. Having an MLB team as a ward of the state (or at least under MLB’s close eye) hasn’t triggered any recent in-season fire sales either. The Texas Rangers added one of the best pitchers in baseball in Cliff Lee last summer — as well as veterans like Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu — even as the team was about to be auctioned off in bankruptcy court. Even the downtrodden Montreal Expos didn’t slash payroll when they were owned by MLB and rumored to be contraction targets in 2002; Dealin’ Omar Minaya instead engineered deals for Bartolo Colom and Cliff Floyd, with the Colon deal still ranking as one of the most generous prospect giveaways of all-time. Throw in Ned Colletti’s history of fetishizing veterans and (over)reaching even when on the periphery of a pennant race (see: Carlos Santana for Casey Blake), and it would probably take a big offer to land Ethier.
Still, Ethier would look a hell of a lot better than Raul Ibanez in the Phillies outfield, wouldn’t he?
PLAYER: Carlos Beltran
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: $18.5M, Walk year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.4
One of the most attractive corner outfield options is also one of the most difficult to peg. For the Trade Target series, we’re using rest-of-season ZiPS to project players’ offensive value, then three-year UZR to peg the defense. Of course the problem (well, one of them) in this case is that Beltran played just 145 games in the past two seasons combined. His .274/.363/.514, .379 wOBA start to this season is roughly in line with his .380 wOBA 2008 campaign. But Beltran derived his massive 7.6 WAR that season from uncommon durability (161 games) as well as defensive value that no longer applies (12.4 UZR and a Gold Glove playing center field then, vs. average to below-average defense playing a corner OF slot now).
Still, this rest-of-season WAR projection assumes Beltran misses about a quarter of his remaining games, and that he doesn’t leave Citi Field. A move to, say, Cleveland would plop Beltran into a more favorable park for hitters. If Travis Hafner returns to the Indians lineup at 100%, and Grady Sizemore becomes healthy enough to be a productive everyday center fielder again, you won’t see this kind of deal happen. But based on their track record of the past few years, you can’t bet on both happening.
The key here — other than the health of Hafner and Sizemore — will be money. Even with a fresh cash influx from new minority owner David Einhorn, the Mets probably wouldn’t mind ditching the rest of Beltran’s $18.5 million salary. If he were to be dealt fairly soon and Beltran’s health holds up, a gain of 2 or more wins for the team that trades for him is possible. As with many deadline trades in recent years, the Beltran-receiving team could ask the Mets pick up a significant chunk of Beltran’s remaining salary in exchange for giving up a better prospect (Beltran also has a no-trade clause in his contract which adds another layer of complexity).
A team like the Indians, without a ton of cash to spend that also places great value on young talent, would have to find a middle ground between financial help and not mortgaging the farm. Still, flags fly forever, and the Tribe has a legitimate chance for some big things this season. Beltran could greatly help their cause.
PLAYER: Luke Scott
TEAM: Orioles
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: $6.4M, arbitration-eligible after this season, likely non-tender
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Seems like he’s been around forever, doesn’t it? Yet the soon-to-be 33-year-old Scott isn’t slated to hit six-year free agency until after the 2012 season. No matter — he’s a likely non-tender after year, making him a straight rental for a contending team.
Scott’s off to a crummy start this year at .232/.316/.413, .319 wOBA, particularly given his limited defensive value. The highest strikeout rate since his rookie season and the highest swinging-strike rate of his career makes you wonder if his career might already be in decline. On the other hand, Scott hit .285/.368/.535 last year, without any underlying stats looking too far out of whack. That HR/FB rate has a good chance to bump higher from its current career-low of 12.5%, which would help his numbers across the board. The Orioles will likely be motivated to move Scott too, given Nolan Reimold‘s recent (small-sample) emergence and the team’s longer-term outlook (Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero look like crappy off-season signings).
So which team would be the best fit? Ideally a club seeking left-handed sock that could slot Scott at first base and DH as well as left field. The Rays have a bigger need for right-handed hitting, and both Brandon Guyer and Desmond Jennings could be solid internal options, once they’re over the Super 2 hump. Still, the Rays could stand to add power where Casey Kotchman and Sam Fuld primarily offer defensive value (unless you think Kotchman’s going to hit .361 all year). The price for Scott should also be low enough for even the notoriously prospect-clingy Rays to justify a move.
PLAYER: Kosuke Fukudome
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Giants
CONTRACT STATUS: $13.5M, walk year (Cubs must sign Fukudome to an extension by Nov. 15 or release him, allowing him to become a free agent)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.6
Fukudome owns one of the weirdest statistical profiles in the game this season. He’d shown modest, accelerating power in his first three major league seasons; his ISO has plunged to .063 this year. He’d never hit higher than .263 in the the majors before; he’s at .315 this year, thanks to a sky-high .382 BABIP. He went from a decent gloveman in right field his first couple seasons to below average last year; he’s on pace to be one of the worst fielders in the game this season, depending on how much you trust single-season UZR figures. But man, the guy sure can walk. Fukudome has hiked his walk rate to a career-best 16.7% this season; he’d rank 8th in MLB if he had a few more at-bats to qualify among league leaders.
So what can kind of market value does an aging, small-to-moderate power, lousy-defense, high-walk, inflated .435 OBP corner fielder with a no-trade clause have on the open market? If the Cubs would be willing to pick up the bulk of his remaining ’11 salary, Fukudome becomes one of the most attractive top-of-the-order candidates on the trade market. He would add a welcome jolt of on-base ability to a Giants team that, with Buster Posey out for the year, needs more help than Brandon Belt alone can provide. They’ve got to do better than the 4th-worst team OBP (.304) in MLB if they’re going to defend their title.
PLAYER: Jeff Francoeur
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Diamondbacks
CONTRACT STATUS: $2.5M, mutual option for 2012 (in other words, bye-bye, Jeffy)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.4
One of Sabermetria’s favorite whipping boys, Francoeur has always had his uses, even at the worst of times. He’s a career .302/.346/.494 hitter vs. lefty pitching. He’s got roughly league-average range, which along with a great throwing arm make him an above-average right fielder. He gives great quote. And of course there’s this. Are we seeing a legitimate breakout this year, into something more?
Francoeur’s ISO (.212) and wOBA (.363) are at their highest level since his terrific rookie season. He’s still just 27 years old, so a power breakout at this stage is certainly possible. Other encouraging signs: .299 BABIP right in line with his career average, and the lowest swinging strike rate and second-highest contact rate of his career. Still, his groundball rate is up, and much of his production can be linked to a big spike in HR/FB rate. In short…we just don’t know.
Here’s what we do know: The Royals have a ton of excellent prospects rising through the system, including 20-year-old outfielder prospect Wil Myers. After a hot start, they’ve faded badly and look unlikely to contend this season. And Francoeur’s dirt-cheap salary could make him a more likely trade candidate than anyone else on this list.
The Rangers used Francoeur as a platoon man and bench piece on their way to the World Series last year. Arizona would be a perfect destination this year. Gerardo Parra has leverage fantastic defense and deft baserunning into a successful season. But he also sports a 626 OPS vs. lefties, and neither Xavier Nady nor Willie Bloomquist provide viable platoons. Even with serious long-term debt and hopes for longer-term success, the DBacks could swing a deal for Francoeur without killing their bottom line, or their future.
Trade targerts at 1B/DH.
Spoiler [+]
PLAYER: Billy Butler
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Angels, Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: Four-year, $30 million deal through 2014
PROJECTED WAR: 2.1
Butler is tricky when stacked up against the rest of the players on this list because he’s in the first of a four-year deal. Everyone else discussed below will reach free agency at the end of the season. For that reason, the Royals could hold onto him — since the team could contend in the next few seasons as its bevy of upper-echelon prospects reach the major leagues.
On the flip side, Butler could extract a significant return, given that 2-3 WAR at an average annual value of $7.5 million a year for the next several seasons represents a bargain.
He isn’t exactly a top flight first baseman, but the Rays are currently using Johnny Damon as their designated hitter, and the Angels have a declining Bobby Abreu in that role. Neither is a lock to be given guaranteed major-league deals next season. Neither is lighting the world on fire. And neither is projected to improve drastically down the stretch.
Mark Trumbo and Casey Kotchman probably aren’t long-term solutions for their respective teams and it’s unclear what the Angels will get from Kendrys Morales moving forward. If Butler had to play first base, he wouldn’t be the worst fielder in the world and would still provide plenty of value.
Butler would add another dimension to both lineups, and while he isn’t a difference-maker to the point that his acquisition guarantees a playoff berth for either team this season, he is a cost-effective building block. He won’t come cheap, and the teams would have to part ways with premium talent, but a three-win player signed to a team-friendly contract is worth that type of return.
PLAYER: Carlos Pena
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $10 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 2.0
Pena is by no means having a season reminiscent of his 2007 to 2009 performances with the Rays, but he’s still fairly adept in the field and he has remained, at worst, league average with the bat. There’s also room for improvement given his peripherals — his line drive rate has risen to its 2007-08 level and his contact rate is its highest since 2004.
The Indians wouldn’t have much interest in him as a designated hitter since Travis Hafner is in the midst of a good year at the dish, but Pena could form a fairly potent platoon with Matt LaPorta. Given the injuries to both Hafner and Sizemore, LaPorta could find himself in the outfield quite a bit, opening up a spot at first base for Pena.
If Sizemore is healthy but Hafner continues to miss time, one can slot in at DH. By acquiring Pena the Indians would fortify two questionable positions — LaPorta’s ability to sustain this production and Hafner’s health — without committing anything for the future or surrendering much in return.
PLAYER: Jason Kubel
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Blue Jays
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $5.25 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.5 (DH), 0.9 (1B)
Kubel is the classic example of a player whose perceived value is greater than his actual contributions. His higher batting averages and home run totals are intriguing, and he has primarily played in the corner outfield, where fielding inadequacies can be somewhat hidden. Even so, the fielding metrics frown on his efforts, and he’s a below-average baserunner. But Kubel has some power and could provide value to a contending team.
The Blue Jays have Adam Lind at first base, but Toronto is using Juan Rivera as its designated hitter. The team might be a year or two away from contending, but have played well so far, and could conceivably sneak its way into the wild card hunt. Kubel isn’t exponentially better than Rivera, but he certainly would be an offensive improvement.
He’s also the type of player who could be worth 1.5-2 wins above replacement per year as a full-time DH — at a nominal cost — should the Jays decide to re-sign him.
On the whole, designated hitters aren’t producing like they have in the past, and acquiring Kubel would allow Toronto to improve its offense this season without drastically hindering future payroll flexibility.
PLAYER: Josh Willingham
TEAM: Athletics
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Rangers, Braves
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $6 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Texas is still in first place though the Rangers are by no means running away with the division. Michael Young is having a solid season as a designated hitter, and Mitch Moreland has been a surprise at first base. But you have to wonder how the team will fare if it’s merely three games above .500 when both players are performing above expectations. To that end, Willingham makes a lot of sense. He could platoon with Moreland at first base, play a little outfield or fill in as designated hitter if injuries strike Young or Kinsler (in that case, Young would likely play the keystone).
At worst, Willingham would give the Rangers another potent bat on the bench and provide depth, an important component of roster management given the wear-and-tear over the course of the season.
The Braves offense has sputtered for most of the season, and while Freddie Freeman might be the first baseman of the future, it stands to reason that a platoon at first base wouldn’t be the worst thing for his development. Better prospects than Freeman have begun their major league initiations in a platoon, and Willingham essentially could become the right-handed version of Eric Hinske: big bat off the bench with some starts thrown in. And don’t discount the possibility that Willingham also could play the outfield in Atlanta, given that Joe Mather has started several games.
Willingham likely will get a multi-year deal after the season, but even as a one-year rental, he could improve a slumping offense.
PLAYER: Jim Thome
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $3 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Thome cannot play the field anymore. He joked that he left his glove in Chicago when the Dodgers acquired him from the White Sox for the 2009 stretch-run. At 40 years old he also is close to the end of his career. Having said that, he still can be productive, and last year he gave the Twins 340 PAs of his peak offensive production. Thome returning to the Phillies wouldn’t only be a great story (his big contract back in 2003 helped usher in the Citizens Bank Park era of Phillies baseball), but he’d legitimately help the team.
Whether he pinch-hits or he serves as the designated hitter in interleague games, Thome would give the Phillies another huge weapon at minimal cost, which is a key consideration given the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold. Since Thome and Kubel are the Twins’ only assets capable of generating a decent return, GM Bill Smith can’t afford to get greedy and ask for the world.
From the Phillies standpoint, Ross Gload is battling a severe hip injury that will either force him to play with pain or will end his season. What makes more sense for a championship contending team: 60% of a mediocre left-handed pinch-hitter, or 100% of one of the best left-handed hitters in major league history who can still mash? That answer is pretty clear. The move might be a long-shot, especially if Gload isn’t put on the disabled list, but it makes sense on several levels.
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Angels, Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: Four-year, $30 million deal through 2014
PROJECTED WAR: 2.1
Butler is tricky when stacked up against the rest of the players on this list because he’s in the first of a four-year deal. Everyone else discussed below will reach free agency at the end of the season. For that reason, the Royals could hold onto him — since the team could contend in the next few seasons as its bevy of upper-echelon prospects reach the major leagues.
On the flip side, Butler could extract a significant return, given that 2-3 WAR at an average annual value of $7.5 million a year for the next several seasons represents a bargain.
He isn’t exactly a top flight first baseman, but the Rays are currently using Johnny Damon as their designated hitter, and the Angels have a declining Bobby Abreu in that role. Neither is a lock to be given guaranteed major-league deals next season. Neither is lighting the world on fire. And neither is projected to improve drastically down the stretch.
Mark Trumbo and Casey Kotchman probably aren’t long-term solutions for their respective teams and it’s unclear what the Angels will get from Kendrys Morales moving forward. If Butler had to play first base, he wouldn’t be the worst fielder in the world and would still provide plenty of value.
Butler would add another dimension to both lineups, and while he isn’t a difference-maker to the point that his acquisition guarantees a playoff berth for either team this season, he is a cost-effective building block. He won’t come cheap, and the teams would have to part ways with premium talent, but a three-win player signed to a team-friendly contract is worth that type of return.
PLAYER: Carlos Pena
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $10 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 2.0
Pena is by no means having a season reminiscent of his 2007 to 2009 performances with the Rays, but he’s still fairly adept in the field and he has remained, at worst, league average with the bat. There’s also room for improvement given his peripherals — his line drive rate has risen to its 2007-08 level and his contact rate is its highest since 2004.
The Indians wouldn’t have much interest in him as a designated hitter since Travis Hafner is in the midst of a good year at the dish, but Pena could form a fairly potent platoon with Matt LaPorta. Given the injuries to both Hafner and Sizemore, LaPorta could find himself in the outfield quite a bit, opening up a spot at first base for Pena.
If Sizemore is healthy but Hafner continues to miss time, one can slot in at DH. By acquiring Pena the Indians would fortify two questionable positions — LaPorta’s ability to sustain this production and Hafner’s health — without committing anything for the future or surrendering much in return.
PLAYER: Jason Kubel
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Blue Jays
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $5.25 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.5 (DH), 0.9 (1B)
Kubel is the classic example of a player whose perceived value is greater than his actual contributions. His higher batting averages and home run totals are intriguing, and he has primarily played in the corner outfield, where fielding inadequacies can be somewhat hidden. Even so, the fielding metrics frown on his efforts, and he’s a below-average baserunner. But Kubel has some power and could provide value to a contending team.
The Blue Jays have Adam Lind at first base, but Toronto is using Juan Rivera as its designated hitter. The team might be a year or two away from contending, but have played well so far, and could conceivably sneak its way into the wild card hunt. Kubel isn’t exponentially better than Rivera, but he certainly would be an offensive improvement.
He’s also the type of player who could be worth 1.5-2 wins above replacement per year as a full-time DH — at a nominal cost — should the Jays decide to re-sign him.
On the whole, designated hitters aren’t producing like they have in the past, and acquiring Kubel would allow Toronto to improve its offense this season without drastically hindering future payroll flexibility.
PLAYER: Josh Willingham
TEAM: Athletics
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Rangers, Braves
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $6 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Texas is still in first place though the Rangers are by no means running away with the division. Michael Young is having a solid season as a designated hitter, and Mitch Moreland has been a surprise at first base. But you have to wonder how the team will fare if it’s merely three games above .500 when both players are performing above expectations. To that end, Willingham makes a lot of sense. He could platoon with Moreland at first base, play a little outfield or fill in as designated hitter if injuries strike Young or Kinsler (in that case, Young would likely play the keystone).
At worst, Willingham would give the Rangers another potent bat on the bench and provide depth, an important component of roster management given the wear-and-tear over the course of the season.
The Braves offense has sputtered for most of the season, and while Freddie Freeman might be the first baseman of the future, it stands to reason that a platoon at first base wouldn’t be the worst thing for his development. Better prospects than Freeman have begun their major league initiations in a platoon, and Willingham essentially could become the right-handed version of Eric Hinske: big bat off the bench with some starts thrown in. And don’t discount the possibility that Willingham also could play the outfield in Atlanta, given that Joe Mather has started several games.
Willingham likely will get a multi-year deal after the season, but even as a one-year rental, he could improve a slumping offense.
PLAYER: Jim Thome
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $3 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Thome cannot play the field anymore. He joked that he left his glove in Chicago when the Dodgers acquired him from the White Sox for the 2009 stretch-run. At 40 years old he also is close to the end of his career. Having said that, he still can be productive, and last year he gave the Twins 340 PAs of his peak offensive production. Thome returning to the Phillies wouldn’t only be a great story (his big contract back in 2003 helped usher in the Citizens Bank Park era of Phillies baseball), but he’d legitimately help the team.
Whether he pinch-hits or he serves as the designated hitter in interleague games, Thome would give the Phillies another huge weapon at minimal cost, which is a key consideration given the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold. Since Thome and Kubel are the Twins’ only assets capable of generating a decent return, GM Bill Smith can’t afford to get greedy and ask for the world.
From the Phillies standpoint, Ross Gload is battling a severe hip injury that will either force him to play with pain or will end his season. What makes more sense for a championship contending team: 60% of a mediocre left-handed pinch-hitter, or 100% of one of the best left-handed hitters in major league history who can still mash? That answer is pretty clear. The move might be a long-shot, especially if Gload isn’t put on the disabled list, but it makes sense on several levels.
Giants pitching.
Spoiler [+]
Quick, guess which team’s pitching staff has the lowest HR/FB rate in baseball. Okay, the subject probably gives away the answer, but even if it didn’t, the smart guess would have been San Francisco. After all, they’ve been dominating this category for the last decade.
We spent a decent amount of time this winter talking about the Giants ability to prevent home runs. It started off talking about Matt Cain, moved on to a broader discussion, and then shifted towards looking at whether Dave Righetti might be the key to understanding why San Francisco continues to keep the ball in the park better than any other team in baseball. While we don’t have a concrete answer yet, as more data piles up, three oft-cited factors are seeing their potential influences diminished – the pitchers themselves, sample size of the data, and park factors.
We’ll start with the latter. While AT&T Park is certainly part of the reason why the Giants have been able to depress home run rates over the years, their pitchers continue to carry this trait with them on road trips. In fact, the Giants HR/FB rate is lower on the road (5.7%, lowest in baseball) this year than it is at home (6.6%, 10th in baseball). These numbers aren’t as crazy low as they would have been a few years ago, as the league HR/FB rate continues to drop (it’s now just below nine percent for 2011), but there’s no denying that the Giants are once again allowing fewer home runs on fly balls than any other team in baseball. As we noted over the winter, the Giants have consistently been one of the best teams in baseball at preventing home runs away from their home park, and they’re continuing this trend again this year. There’s more going on here than playing half their games in an environment where it is hard to put the ball in the seats.
As for sample size, it continues to grow by the day. We’re going on 10 years of batted ball data now and the trend is remarkably consistent. If this was only a pattern seen over the last few years, it could still be seen as simply an outlier on the data, something that we’d expect to find given enough digging through a massive amount of numbers. But, the pattern is showing no signs of slowing up, and we’re now dealing with a decade’s worth of evidence. This stopped being a small sample size a while ago.
That leaves us with the final factor often referenced as a significant influence – the pitchers themselves. We’ve heard all kinds of theories for why Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are hard to hit home runs against, and some of them even sound like they have merit. However, it’s always been hard to ignore the glut of mediocre pitchers who showed up in San Francisco and immediately stopped giving up home runs upon arrival. Brett Tomko, Jerome Williams, Matt Morris, Russ Ortiz… these guys are not exactly Cy Young.
Well, we can another name to that pile – Ryan Vogelsong. He entered the season with a career 8.5% HR/FB rate in just under 300 innings in the Major Leagues, none of them coming since 2006. Now, thrust into the Giants rotation to replace Barry Zito, he’s tossed up a nifty little 4.0% HR/FB rate in 41 innings. By himself, he proves nothing, and a 40 inning sample isn’t all that useful. But, when taking a look at the Giants history of right-handed pitchers over the last ten years, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the team found a guy off the scrap heap and has turned him into a pretty decent starting pitcher. They’ve been doing this forever.
When I talked to Dave Righetti about this during Spring Training, he seemed genuinely interested and confused by the data at the same time. I’m right there with him. I find the Giants ability to keep this up both fascinating and bewildering – I don’t know that anyone knows how they’re doing it, but they’re doing it again, and it’s getting harder and harder to say that Righetti – or someone in the Giants organization – hasn’t figured out some way to either acquire or develop pitchers who just don’t give up home runs.
We spent a decent amount of time this winter talking about the Giants ability to prevent home runs. It started off talking about Matt Cain, moved on to a broader discussion, and then shifted towards looking at whether Dave Righetti might be the key to understanding why San Francisco continues to keep the ball in the park better than any other team in baseball. While we don’t have a concrete answer yet, as more data piles up, three oft-cited factors are seeing their potential influences diminished – the pitchers themselves, sample size of the data, and park factors.
We’ll start with the latter. While AT&T Park is certainly part of the reason why the Giants have been able to depress home run rates over the years, their pitchers continue to carry this trait with them on road trips. In fact, the Giants HR/FB rate is lower on the road (5.7%, lowest in baseball) this year than it is at home (6.6%, 10th in baseball). These numbers aren’t as crazy low as they would have been a few years ago, as the league HR/FB rate continues to drop (it’s now just below nine percent for 2011), but there’s no denying that the Giants are once again allowing fewer home runs on fly balls than any other team in baseball. As we noted over the winter, the Giants have consistently been one of the best teams in baseball at preventing home runs away from their home park, and they’re continuing this trend again this year. There’s more going on here than playing half their games in an environment where it is hard to put the ball in the seats.
As for sample size, it continues to grow by the day. We’re going on 10 years of batted ball data now and the trend is remarkably consistent. If this was only a pattern seen over the last few years, it could still be seen as simply an outlier on the data, something that we’d expect to find given enough digging through a massive amount of numbers. But, the pattern is showing no signs of slowing up, and we’re now dealing with a decade’s worth of evidence. This stopped being a small sample size a while ago.
That leaves us with the final factor often referenced as a significant influence – the pitchers themselves. We’ve heard all kinds of theories for why Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are hard to hit home runs against, and some of them even sound like they have merit. However, it’s always been hard to ignore the glut of mediocre pitchers who showed up in San Francisco and immediately stopped giving up home runs upon arrival. Brett Tomko, Jerome Williams, Matt Morris, Russ Ortiz… these guys are not exactly Cy Young.
Well, we can another name to that pile – Ryan Vogelsong. He entered the season with a career 8.5% HR/FB rate in just under 300 innings in the Major Leagues, none of them coming since 2006. Now, thrust into the Giants rotation to replace Barry Zito, he’s tossed up a nifty little 4.0% HR/FB rate in 41 innings. By himself, he proves nothing, and a 40 inning sample isn’t all that useful. But, when taking a look at the Giants history of right-handed pitchers over the last ten years, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the team found a guy off the scrap heap and has turned him into a pretty decent starting pitcher. They’ve been doing this forever.
When I talked to Dave Righetti about this during Spring Training, he seemed genuinely interested and confused by the data at the same time. I’m right there with him. I find the Giants ability to keep this up both fascinating and bewildering – I don’t know that anyone knows how they’re doing it, but they’re doing it again, and it’s getting harder and harder to say that Righetti – or someone in the Giants organization – hasn’t figured out some way to either acquire or develop pitchers who just don’t give up home runs.
Rays defense.
Spoiler [+]
A few weeks ago, with his team streaking back into contention, Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon tweeted about a key to his team’s success:
Indeed, the Rays’ defense has been fantastic this season. Tampa Bay leads the majors in ultimate zone rating, defensive runs saved, and defensive batting average on balls in play.
Tampa Bay’s defense this year is even more impressive considering it lost Carl Crawford, who led the team in UZR in 2010. The tandem of Matt Joyce and Sam Fuld have done well holding down Crawford’s spot in left field this season, tallying 1.6 and 2.6 UZR, respectively.
The biggest contributor to Tampa Bay’s defense this season is Evan Longoria, who has a 6.8 UZR despite missing the first month of the season. Longoria is off to a modest start offensively — .323 wOBA so far — but he is on fire defensively. His current UZR/150 is 54.5, which is based on a small 200-inning sample and certainly unsustainable for a full year, but impressive nonetheless.
The opposite case is B.J. Upton, who is having a resurgent offensive season, his .352 wOBA is his best mark since 2008, but is struggling in the field. Upton has never logged a negative UZR season in his career, but has a -2.7 mark so far this year, and a UZR/150 of -9.8. Upton’s defense has been on a downward trend in the last few years. His UZRs since 2008 are 7.8, 6.7 and 1.4. Based on that, it would not be surprising to see Upton have an average or below average defensive season in 2011, but his current pace seems extreme.
Exceptional defense is nothing new for the Rays. Tampa has finished first or second in the AL in UZR and in the top three of defensive BABIP in each of the last three years. Given, Tropicana Field is one of better pitchers parks in the majors, but the Rays’ defense is not simply a product of its home stadium:
In the first two years of the Joe Maddon era, the Rays’ defensive BABIP was about 10-percent worse than league average, both at home and on the road. In 2007, Maddon’s team played in the same ballpark as they do today, but it was second-worst in UZR and dead last in defensive BABIP. Starting in 2008, Tampa Bay’s BABIP has been better than league average every season. Tropicana Field’s large foul ground contributes to the split between home and road, although all teams generally have better BABIPs at home anyway.
The Rays are always looking for the extra edge needed to compete against the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox. Since they turned the corner in 2008, defense has been a big strength for Tampa Bay, and the first two months of 2011 are no exception.
Indeed, the Rays’ defense has been fantastic this season. Tampa Bay leads the majors in ultimate zone rating, defensive runs saved, and defensive batting average on balls in play.
Tampa Bay’s defense this year is even more impressive considering it lost Carl Crawford, who led the team in UZR in 2010. The tandem of Matt Joyce and Sam Fuld have done well holding down Crawford’s spot in left field this season, tallying 1.6 and 2.6 UZR, respectively.
The biggest contributor to Tampa Bay’s defense this season is Evan Longoria, who has a 6.8 UZR despite missing the first month of the season. Longoria is off to a modest start offensively — .323 wOBA so far — but he is on fire defensively. His current UZR/150 is 54.5, which is based on a small 200-inning sample and certainly unsustainable for a full year, but impressive nonetheless.
The opposite case is B.J. Upton, who is having a resurgent offensive season, his .352 wOBA is his best mark since 2008, but is struggling in the field. Upton has never logged a negative UZR season in his career, but has a -2.7 mark so far this year, and a UZR/150 of -9.8. Upton’s defense has been on a downward trend in the last few years. His UZRs since 2008 are 7.8, 6.7 and 1.4. Based on that, it would not be surprising to see Upton have an average or below average defensive season in 2011, but his current pace seems extreme.
Exceptional defense is nothing new for the Rays. Tampa has finished first or second in the AL in UZR and in the top three of defensive BABIP in each of the last three years. Given, Tropicana Field is one of better pitchers parks in the majors, but the Rays’ defense is not simply a product of its home stadium:
In the first two years of the Joe Maddon era, the Rays’ defensive BABIP was about 10-percent worse than league average, both at home and on the road. In 2007, Maddon’s team played in the same ballpark as they do today, but it was second-worst in UZR and dead last in defensive BABIP. Starting in 2008, Tampa Bay’s BABIP has been better than league average every season. Tropicana Field’s large foul ground contributes to the split between home and road, although all teams generally have better BABIPs at home anyway.
The Rays are always looking for the extra edge needed to compete against the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox. Since they turned the corner in 2008, defense has been a big strength for Tampa Bay, and the first two months of 2011 are no exception.
New closer for the Royals.
Spoiler [+]
If, during Spring Training, you predicted Aaron Crow would make the Kansas City Royals 25 man roster, it’s likely people would have laughed at you. After all, he was coming off a poor season at Double A; in which he posted a 5.66 ERA and a less than spectacular 4.74 xFIP. If, once he made the team, you predicted he would be the Royals best reliever two months into the season, people would have had you committed to an institution. Well, we’re two months into the season and it looks like you should be the newest member of Mensa. Aaron Crow has already far surpassed expectations in his rookie season. Can he continue his dominance going forward, or does his current performance scream small sample size fluke?
The problem with evaluating Crow is his interesting path to the big leagues. Crow was a highly regarded prospect entering the 2008 draft. He did not sign, however, and chose to re-enter the draft the following season. Despite the layoff, the Royals selected Crow with the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft.
Unfortunately, the time away from baseball seemed to hurt Crow’s development.Though he actually performed well at his first stop in the minors, *As reader Yirmiyahu pointed out in the comments, Double A was Crow’s first stop. He was demoted due to his poor performance. Crow really struggled upon reaching Double A. Crow’s strikeout rate plummeted from 10.84 to 6.79 following the promotion, while his walk rate soared to an unsightly 4.45. Crow was so bad in Double A that the Royals actually sent him down to work out his issues. Based on that performance, it seemed highly unlikely that Crow would be pitching in the majors this season; let alone pitching this well.
Yet somehow, the 24 year old pitcher has all of his doubters eating crow this season.*
After a conversion to the bullpen, Crow has relied on mainly his fastball and slider to keep hitters off balance. He also flashes a curve, but has used it pretty sparingly this season. While his 95 mph heater has been effective, Crow’s slider has been his strongest weapon this season.
According to Pitch Type Values, Crow’s slider has been worth 4.10 runs above average; good for seventh among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. Due to the effectiveness of his two-pitch mix, Crow has struck out nearly a batter per inning in his rookie season.
While we only have 27.0 innings of major league performance to look at, it looks as if Crow can continue his strong performance as the season progresses. While his 1.33 ERA and left on base percentage are due for some regression, Crow still carries a 2.95 FIP and a 2.91 xFIP.
The Kansas City Royals have received a ton of criticism for mishandling prospects once they reach the major leagues. In the case of Crow, the Royals deserve credit for accurately evaluating what they had. Crow’s conversion to the bullpen has been a huge boost for the Royals this season. If his current performance is any indication, the Royals may have stumbled upon one of the best relievers in baseball for years to come. For a guy whose major league future was in doubt after last season, his performance this year deserves some big-time recognition.
*That’s the title of the article. Get it?
The problem with evaluating Crow is his interesting path to the big leagues. Crow was a highly regarded prospect entering the 2008 draft. He did not sign, however, and chose to re-enter the draft the following season. Despite the layoff, the Royals selected Crow with the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft.
Unfortunately, the time away from baseball seemed to hurt Crow’s development.
Yet somehow, the 24 year old pitcher has all of his doubters eating crow this season.*
After a conversion to the bullpen, Crow has relied on mainly his fastball and slider to keep hitters off balance. He also flashes a curve, but has used it pretty sparingly this season. While his 95 mph heater has been effective, Crow’s slider has been his strongest weapon this season.
According to Pitch Type Values, Crow’s slider has been worth 4.10 runs above average; good for seventh among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. Due to the effectiveness of his two-pitch mix, Crow has struck out nearly a batter per inning in his rookie season.
While we only have 27.0 innings of major league performance to look at, it looks as if Crow can continue his strong performance as the season progresses. While his 1.33 ERA and left on base percentage are due for some regression, Crow still carries a 2.95 FIP and a 2.91 xFIP.
The Kansas City Royals have received a ton of criticism for mishandling prospects once they reach the major leagues. In the case of Crow, the Royals deserve credit for accurately evaluating what they had. Crow’s conversion to the bullpen has been a huge boost for the Royals this season. If his current performance is any indication, the Royals may have stumbled upon one of the best relievers in baseball for years to come. For a guy whose major league future was in doubt after last season, his performance this year deserves some big-time recognition.
*That’s the title of the article. Get it?
The Slow Decline of A-Rod.
Spoiler [+]
Trade targets in the corner OF.
Trade targerts at 1B/DH.
Giants pitching.
Rays defense.
New closer for the Royals.
The Slow Decline of A-Rod.
Spoiler [+]
PLAYER: Andre Ethier
TEAM: Dodgers
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $9.25M, arbitration-eligible after this season (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.6
Corner outfield ranks as one of the thinnest positions for available talent, so we’re including a pair of front-line players from teams with ownership problems to lead off.
Frank McCourt reportedly faces a budget crisis with the next round of payroll expenses coming due June 15; more broadly, MLB could prompt the Dodgers to cut salary as the league works to find a new ownership group. Ethier is the team’s third-highest-paid player (behind…Rafael Furcal and Hiroki Kuroda?). He’s also one of the Dodgers’ best players, ranked 7th among MLB right fielders (an insane group that includes out-of-their-mind starts by Jose Bautista, Matt Joyce, and Lance Berkman) in wOBA. UZR hates Ethier (combined -38.3 fielding runs last three years), holding down his rest-of-season projection. Still, if the Dodgers do make Ethier available, he’d instantly become the most sought-after corner OF commodity, both for his bat and having another year left before free agency (albeit at a big price).
So, will it happen? You’d think the Dodgers would sooner try to move less exciting vets like Casey Blake before they hack into their core. Having an MLB team as a ward of the state (or at least under MLB’s close eye) hasn’t triggered any recent in-season fire sales either. The Texas Rangers added one of the best pitchers in baseball in Cliff Lee last summer — as well as veterans like Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu — even as the team was about to be auctioned off in bankruptcy court. Even the downtrodden Montreal Expos didn’t slash payroll when they were owned by MLB and rumored to be contraction targets in 2002; Dealin’ Omar Minaya instead engineered deals for Bartolo Colom and Cliff Floyd, with the Colon deal still ranking as one of the most generous prospect giveaways of all-time. Throw in Ned Colletti’s history of fetishizing veterans and (over)reaching even when on the periphery of a pennant race (see: Carlos Santana for Casey Blake), and it would probably take a big offer to land Ethier.
Still, Ethier would look a hell of a lot better than Raul Ibanez in the Phillies outfield, wouldn’t he?
PLAYER: Carlos Beltran
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: $18.5M, Walk year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.4
One of the most attractive corner outfield options is also one of the most difficult to peg. For the Trade Target series, we’re using rest-of-season ZiPS to project players’ offensive value, then three-year UZR to peg the defense. Of course the problem (well, one of them) in this case is that Beltran played just 145 games in the past two seasons combined. His .274/.363/.514, .379 wOBA start to this season is roughly in line with his .380 wOBA 2008 campaign. But Beltran derived his massive 7.6 WAR that season from uncommon durability (161 games) as well as defensive value that no longer applies (12.4 UZR and a Gold Glove playing center field then, vs. average to below-average defense playing a corner OF slot now).
Still, this rest-of-season WAR projection assumes Beltran misses about a quarter of his remaining games, and that he doesn’t leave Citi Field. A move to, say, Cleveland would plop Beltran into a more favorable park for hitters. If Travis Hafner returns to the Indians lineup at 100%, and Grady Sizemore becomes healthy enough to be a productive everyday center fielder again, you won’t see this kind of deal happen. But based on their track record of the past few years, you can’t bet on both happening.
The key here — other than the health of Hafner and Sizemore — will be money. Even with a fresh cash influx from new minority owner David Einhorn, the Mets probably wouldn’t mind ditching the rest of Beltran’s $18.5 million salary. If he were to be dealt fairly soon and Beltran’s health holds up, a gain of 2 or more wins for the team that trades for him is possible. As with many deadline trades in recent years, the Beltran-receiving team could ask the Mets pick up a significant chunk of Beltran’s remaining salary in exchange for giving up a better prospect (Beltran also has a no-trade clause in his contract which adds another layer of complexity).
A team like the Indians, without a ton of cash to spend that also places great value on young talent, would have to find a middle ground between financial help and not mortgaging the farm. Still, flags fly forever, and the Tribe has a legitimate chance for some big things this season. Beltran could greatly help their cause.
PLAYER: Luke Scott
TEAM: Orioles
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: $6.4M, arbitration-eligible after this season, likely non-tender
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Seems like he’s been around forever, doesn’t it? Yet the soon-to-be 33-year-old Scott isn’t slated to hit six-year free agency until after the 2012 season. No matter — he’s a likely non-tender after year, making him a straight rental for a contending team.
Scott’s off to a crummy start this year at .232/.316/.413, .319 wOBA, particularly given his limited defensive value. The highest strikeout rate since his rookie season and the highest swinging-strike rate of his career makes you wonder if his career might already be in decline. On the other hand, Scott hit .285/.368/.535 last year, without any underlying stats looking too far out of whack. That HR/FB rate has a good chance to bump higher from its current career-low of 12.5%, which would help his numbers across the board. The Orioles will likely be motivated to move Scott too, given Nolan Reimold‘s recent (small-sample) emergence and the team’s longer-term outlook (Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero look like crappy off-season signings).
So which team would be the best fit? Ideally a club seeking left-handed sock that could slot Scott at first base and DH as well as left field. The Rays have a bigger need for right-handed hitting, and both Brandon Guyer and Desmond Jennings could be solid internal options, once they’re over the Super 2 hump. Still, the Rays could stand to add power where Casey Kotchman and Sam Fuld primarily offer defensive value (unless you think Kotchman’s going to hit .361 all year). The price for Scott should also be low enough for even the notoriously prospect-clingy Rays to justify a move.
PLAYER: Kosuke Fukudome
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Giants
CONTRACT STATUS: $13.5M, walk year (Cubs must sign Fukudome to an extension by Nov. 15 or release him, allowing him to become a free agent)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.6
Fukudome owns one of the weirdest statistical profiles in the game this season. He’d shown modest, accelerating power in his first three major league seasons; his ISO has plunged to .063 this year. He’d never hit higher than .263 in the the majors before; he’s at .315 this year, thanks to a sky-high .382 BABIP. He went from a decent gloveman in right field his first couple seasons to below average last year; he’s on pace to be one of the worst fielders in the game this season, depending on how much you trust single-season UZR figures. But man, the guy sure can walk. Fukudome has hiked his walk rate to a career-best 16.7% this season; he’d rank 8th in MLB if he had a few more at-bats to qualify among league leaders.
So what can kind of market value does an aging, small-to-moderate power, lousy-defense, high-walk, inflated .435 OBP corner fielder with a no-trade clause have on the open market? If the Cubs would be willing to pick up the bulk of his remaining ’11 salary, Fukudome becomes one of the most attractive top-of-the-order candidates on the trade market. He would add a welcome jolt of on-base ability to a Giants team that, with Buster Posey out for the year, needs more help than Brandon Belt alone can provide. They’ve got to do better than the 4th-worst team OBP (.304) in MLB if they’re going to defend their title.
PLAYER: Jeff Francoeur
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Diamondbacks
CONTRACT STATUS: $2.5M, mutual option for 2012 (in other words, bye-bye, Jeffy)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.4
One of Sabermetria’s favorite whipping boys, Francoeur has always had his uses, even at the worst of times. He’s a career .302/.346/.494 hitter vs. lefty pitching. He’s got roughly league-average range, which along with a great throwing arm make him an above-average right fielder. He gives great quote. And of course there’s this. Are we seeing a legitimate breakout this year, into something more?
Francoeur’s ISO (.212) and wOBA (.363) are at their highest level since his terrific rookie season. He’s still just 27 years old, so a power breakout at this stage is certainly possible. Other encouraging signs: .299 BABIP right in line with his career average, and the lowest swinging strike rate and second-highest contact rate of his career. Still, his groundball rate is up, and much of his production can be linked to a big spike in HR/FB rate. In short…we just don’t know.
Here’s what we do know: The Royals have a ton of excellent prospects rising through the system, including 20-year-old outfielder prospect Wil Myers. After a hot start, they’ve faded badly and look unlikely to contend this season. And Francoeur’s dirt-cheap salary could make him a more likely trade candidate than anyone else on this list.
The Rangers used Francoeur as a platoon man and bench piece on their way to the World Series last year. Arizona would be a perfect destination this year. Gerardo Parra has leverage fantastic defense and deft baserunning into a successful season. But he also sports a 626 OPS vs. lefties, and neither Xavier Nady nor Willie Bloomquist provide viable platoons. Even with serious long-term debt and hopes for longer-term success, the DBacks could swing a deal for Francoeur without killing their bottom line, or their future.
TEAM: Dodgers
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $9.25M, arbitration-eligible after this season (free agent after 2012)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.6
Corner outfield ranks as one of the thinnest positions for available talent, so we’re including a pair of front-line players from teams with ownership problems to lead off.
Frank McCourt reportedly faces a budget crisis with the next round of payroll expenses coming due June 15; more broadly, MLB could prompt the Dodgers to cut salary as the league works to find a new ownership group. Ethier is the team’s third-highest-paid player (behind…Rafael Furcal and Hiroki Kuroda?). He’s also one of the Dodgers’ best players, ranked 7th among MLB right fielders (an insane group that includes out-of-their-mind starts by Jose Bautista, Matt Joyce, and Lance Berkman) in wOBA. UZR hates Ethier (combined -38.3 fielding runs last three years), holding down his rest-of-season projection. Still, if the Dodgers do make Ethier available, he’d instantly become the most sought-after corner OF commodity, both for his bat and having another year left before free agency (albeit at a big price).
So, will it happen? You’d think the Dodgers would sooner try to move less exciting vets like Casey Blake before they hack into their core. Having an MLB team as a ward of the state (or at least under MLB’s close eye) hasn’t triggered any recent in-season fire sales either. The Texas Rangers added one of the best pitchers in baseball in Cliff Lee last summer — as well as veterans like Jeff Francoeur and Jorge Cantu — even as the team was about to be auctioned off in bankruptcy court. Even the downtrodden Montreal Expos didn’t slash payroll when they were owned by MLB and rumored to be contraction targets in 2002; Dealin’ Omar Minaya instead engineered deals for Bartolo Colom and Cliff Floyd, with the Colon deal still ranking as one of the most generous prospect giveaways of all-time. Throw in Ned Colletti’s history of fetishizing veterans and (over)reaching even when on the periphery of a pennant race (see: Carlos Santana for Casey Blake), and it would probably take a big offer to land Ethier.
Still, Ethier would look a hell of a lot better than Raul Ibanez in the Phillies outfield, wouldn’t he?
PLAYER: Carlos Beltran
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: $18.5M, Walk year
PROJECTED WAR: 1.4
One of the most attractive corner outfield options is also one of the most difficult to peg. For the Trade Target series, we’re using rest-of-season ZiPS to project players’ offensive value, then three-year UZR to peg the defense. Of course the problem (well, one of them) in this case is that Beltran played just 145 games in the past two seasons combined. His .274/.363/.514, .379 wOBA start to this season is roughly in line with his .380 wOBA 2008 campaign. But Beltran derived his massive 7.6 WAR that season from uncommon durability (161 games) as well as defensive value that no longer applies (12.4 UZR and a Gold Glove playing center field then, vs. average to below-average defense playing a corner OF slot now).
Still, this rest-of-season WAR projection assumes Beltran misses about a quarter of his remaining games, and that he doesn’t leave Citi Field. A move to, say, Cleveland would plop Beltran into a more favorable park for hitters. If Travis Hafner returns to the Indians lineup at 100%, and Grady Sizemore becomes healthy enough to be a productive everyday center fielder again, you won’t see this kind of deal happen. But based on their track record of the past few years, you can’t bet on both happening.
The key here — other than the health of Hafner and Sizemore — will be money. Even with a fresh cash influx from new minority owner David Einhorn, the Mets probably wouldn’t mind ditching the rest of Beltran’s $18.5 million salary. If he were to be dealt fairly soon and Beltran’s health holds up, a gain of 2 or more wins for the team that trades for him is possible. As with many deadline trades in recent years, the Beltran-receiving team could ask the Mets pick up a significant chunk of Beltran’s remaining salary in exchange for giving up a better prospect (Beltran also has a no-trade clause in his contract which adds another layer of complexity).
A team like the Indians, without a ton of cash to spend that also places great value on young talent, would have to find a middle ground between financial help and not mortgaging the farm. Still, flags fly forever, and the Tribe has a legitimate chance for some big things this season. Beltran could greatly help their cause.
PLAYER: Luke Scott
TEAM: Orioles
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: $6.4M, arbitration-eligible after this season, likely non-tender
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Seems like he’s been around forever, doesn’t it? Yet the soon-to-be 33-year-old Scott isn’t slated to hit six-year free agency until after the 2012 season. No matter — he’s a likely non-tender after year, making him a straight rental for a contending team.
Scott’s off to a crummy start this year at .232/.316/.413, .319 wOBA, particularly given his limited defensive value. The highest strikeout rate since his rookie season and the highest swinging-strike rate of his career makes you wonder if his career might already be in decline. On the other hand, Scott hit .285/.368/.535 last year, without any underlying stats looking too far out of whack. That HR/FB rate has a good chance to bump higher from its current career-low of 12.5%, which would help his numbers across the board. The Orioles will likely be motivated to move Scott too, given Nolan Reimold‘s recent (small-sample) emergence and the team’s longer-term outlook (Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero look like crappy off-season signings).
So which team would be the best fit? Ideally a club seeking left-handed sock that could slot Scott at first base and DH as well as left field. The Rays have a bigger need for right-handed hitting, and both Brandon Guyer and Desmond Jennings could be solid internal options, once they’re over the Super 2 hump. Still, the Rays could stand to add power where Casey Kotchman and Sam Fuld primarily offer defensive value (unless you think Kotchman’s going to hit .361 all year). The price for Scott should also be low enough for even the notoriously prospect-clingy Rays to justify a move.
PLAYER: Kosuke Fukudome
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Giants
CONTRACT STATUS: $13.5M, walk year (Cubs must sign Fukudome to an extension by Nov. 15 or release him, allowing him to become a free agent)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.6
Fukudome owns one of the weirdest statistical profiles in the game this season. He’d shown modest, accelerating power in his first three major league seasons; his ISO has plunged to .063 this year. He’d never hit higher than .263 in the the majors before; he’s at .315 this year, thanks to a sky-high .382 BABIP. He went from a decent gloveman in right field his first couple seasons to below average last year; he’s on pace to be one of the worst fielders in the game this season, depending on how much you trust single-season UZR figures. But man, the guy sure can walk. Fukudome has hiked his walk rate to a career-best 16.7% this season; he’d rank 8th in MLB if he had a few more at-bats to qualify among league leaders.
So what can kind of market value does an aging, small-to-moderate power, lousy-defense, high-walk, inflated .435 OBP corner fielder with a no-trade clause have on the open market? If the Cubs would be willing to pick up the bulk of his remaining ’11 salary, Fukudome becomes one of the most attractive top-of-the-order candidates on the trade market. He would add a welcome jolt of on-base ability to a Giants team that, with Buster Posey out for the year, needs more help than Brandon Belt alone can provide. They’ve got to do better than the 4th-worst team OBP (.304) in MLB if they’re going to defend their title.
PLAYER: Jeff Francoeur
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Diamondbacks
CONTRACT STATUS: $2.5M, mutual option for 2012 (in other words, bye-bye, Jeffy)
PROJECTED WAR: 0.4
One of Sabermetria’s favorite whipping boys, Francoeur has always had his uses, even at the worst of times. He’s a career .302/.346/.494 hitter vs. lefty pitching. He’s got roughly league-average range, which along with a great throwing arm make him an above-average right fielder. He gives great quote. And of course there’s this. Are we seeing a legitimate breakout this year, into something more?
Francoeur’s ISO (.212) and wOBA (.363) are at their highest level since his terrific rookie season. He’s still just 27 years old, so a power breakout at this stage is certainly possible. Other encouraging signs: .299 BABIP right in line with his career average, and the lowest swinging strike rate and second-highest contact rate of his career. Still, his groundball rate is up, and much of his production can be linked to a big spike in HR/FB rate. In short…we just don’t know.
Here’s what we do know: The Royals have a ton of excellent prospects rising through the system, including 20-year-old outfielder prospect Wil Myers. After a hot start, they’ve faded badly and look unlikely to contend this season. And Francoeur’s dirt-cheap salary could make him a more likely trade candidate than anyone else on this list.
The Rangers used Francoeur as a platoon man and bench piece on their way to the World Series last year. Arizona would be a perfect destination this year. Gerardo Parra has leverage fantastic defense and deft baserunning into a successful season. But he also sports a 626 OPS vs. lefties, and neither Xavier Nady nor Willie Bloomquist provide viable platoons. Even with serious long-term debt and hopes for longer-term success, the DBacks could swing a deal for Francoeur without killing their bottom line, or their future.
Trade targerts at 1B/DH.
Spoiler [+]
PLAYER: Billy Butler
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Angels, Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: Four-year, $30 million deal through 2014
PROJECTED WAR: 2.1
Butler is tricky when stacked up against the rest of the players on this list because he’s in the first of a four-year deal. Everyone else discussed below will reach free agency at the end of the season. For that reason, the Royals could hold onto him — since the team could contend in the next few seasons as its bevy of upper-echelon prospects reach the major leagues.
On the flip side, Butler could extract a significant return, given that 2-3 WAR at an average annual value of $7.5 million a year for the next several seasons represents a bargain.
He isn’t exactly a top flight first baseman, but the Rays are currently using Johnny Damon as their designated hitter, and the Angels have a declining Bobby Abreu in that role. Neither is a lock to be given guaranteed major-league deals next season. Neither is lighting the world on fire. And neither is projected to improve drastically down the stretch.
Mark Trumbo and Casey Kotchman probably aren’t long-term solutions for their respective teams and it’s unclear what the Angels will get from Kendrys Morales moving forward. If Butler had to play first base, he wouldn’t be the worst fielder in the world and would still provide plenty of value.
Butler would add another dimension to both lineups, and while he isn’t a difference-maker to the point that his acquisition guarantees a playoff berth for either team this season, he is a cost-effective building block. He won’t come cheap, and the teams would have to part ways with premium talent, but a three-win player signed to a team-friendly contract is worth that type of return.
PLAYER: Carlos Pena
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $10 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 2.0
Pena is by no means having a season reminiscent of his 2007 to 2009 performances with the Rays, but he’s still fairly adept in the field and he has remained, at worst, league average with the bat. There’s also room for improvement given his peripherals — his line drive rate has risen to its 2007-08 level and his contact rate is its highest since 2004.
The Indians wouldn’t have much interest in him as a designated hitter since Travis Hafner is in the midst of a good year at the dish, but Pena could form a fairly potent platoon with Matt LaPorta. Given the injuries to both Hafner and Sizemore, LaPorta could find himself in the outfield quite a bit, opening up a spot at first base for Pena.
If Sizemore is healthy but Hafner continues to miss time, one can slot in at DH. By acquiring Pena the Indians would fortify two questionable positions — LaPorta’s ability to sustain this production and Hafner’s health — without committing anything for the future or surrendering much in return.
PLAYER: Jason Kubel
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Blue Jays
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $5.25 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.5 (DH), 0.9 (1B)
Kubel is the classic example of a player whose perceived value is greater than his actual contributions. His higher batting averages and home run totals are intriguing, and he has primarily played in the corner outfield, where fielding inadequacies can be somewhat hidden. Even so, the fielding metrics frown on his efforts, and he’s a below-average baserunner. But Kubel has some power and could provide value to a contending team.
The Blue Jays have Adam Lind at first base, but Toronto is using Juan Rivera as its designated hitter. The team might be a year or two away from contending, but have played well so far, and could conceivably sneak its way into the wild card hunt. Kubel isn’t exponentially better than Rivera, but he certainly would be an offensive improvement.
He’s also the type of player who could be worth 1.5-2 wins above replacement per year as a full-time DH — at a nominal cost — should the Jays decide to re-sign him.
On the whole, designated hitters aren’t producing like they have in the past, and acquiring Kubel would allow Toronto to improve its offense this season without drastically hindering future payroll flexibility.
PLAYER: Josh Willingham
TEAM: Athletics
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Rangers, Braves
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $6 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Texas is still in first place though the Rangers are by no means running away with the division. Michael Young is having a solid season as a designated hitter, and Mitch Moreland has been a surprise at first base. But you have to wonder how the team will fare if it’s merely three games above .500 when both players are performing above expectations. To that end, Willingham makes a lot of sense. He could platoon with Moreland at first base, play a little outfield or fill in as designated hitter if injuries strike Young or Kinsler (in that case, Young would likely play the keystone).
At worst, Willingham would give the Rangers another potent bat on the bench and provide depth, an important component of roster management given the wear-and-tear over the course of the season.
The Braves offense has sputtered for most of the season, and while Freddie Freeman might be the first baseman of the future, it stands to reason that a platoon at first base wouldn’t be the worst thing for his development. Better prospects than Freeman have begun their major league initiations in a platoon, and Willingham essentially could become the right-handed version of Eric Hinske: big bat off the bench with some starts thrown in. And don’t discount the possibility that Willingham also could play the outfield in Atlanta, given that Joe Mather has started several games.
Willingham likely will get a multi-year deal after the season, but even as a one-year rental, he could improve a slumping offense.
PLAYER: Jim Thome
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $3 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Thome cannot play the field anymore. He joked that he left his glove in Chicago when the Dodgers acquired him from the White Sox for the 2009 stretch-run. At 40 years old he also is close to the end of his career. Having said that, he still can be productive, and last year he gave the Twins 340 PAs of his peak offensive production. Thome returning to the Phillies wouldn’t only be a great story (his big contract back in 2003 helped usher in the Citizens Bank Park era of Phillies baseball), but he’d legitimately help the team.
Whether he pinch-hits or he serves as the designated hitter in interleague games, Thome would give the Phillies another huge weapon at minimal cost, which is a key consideration given the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold. Since Thome and Kubel are the Twins’ only assets capable of generating a decent return, GM Bill Smith can’t afford to get greedy and ask for the world.
From the Phillies standpoint, Ross Gload is battling a severe hip injury that will either force him to play with pain or will end his season. What makes more sense for a championship contending team: 60% of a mediocre left-handed pinch-hitter, or 100% of one of the best left-handed hitters in major league history who can still mash? That answer is pretty clear. The move might be a long-shot, especially if Gload isn’t put on the disabled list, but it makes sense on several levels.
TEAM: Royals
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Angels, Rays
CONTRACT STATUS: Four-year, $30 million deal through 2014
PROJECTED WAR: 2.1
Butler is tricky when stacked up against the rest of the players on this list because he’s in the first of a four-year deal. Everyone else discussed below will reach free agency at the end of the season. For that reason, the Royals could hold onto him — since the team could contend in the next few seasons as its bevy of upper-echelon prospects reach the major leagues.
On the flip side, Butler could extract a significant return, given that 2-3 WAR at an average annual value of $7.5 million a year for the next several seasons represents a bargain.
He isn’t exactly a top flight first baseman, but the Rays are currently using Johnny Damon as their designated hitter, and the Angels have a declining Bobby Abreu in that role. Neither is a lock to be given guaranteed major-league deals next season. Neither is lighting the world on fire. And neither is projected to improve drastically down the stretch.
Mark Trumbo and Casey Kotchman probably aren’t long-term solutions for their respective teams and it’s unclear what the Angels will get from Kendrys Morales moving forward. If Butler had to play first base, he wouldn’t be the worst fielder in the world and would still provide plenty of value.
Butler would add another dimension to both lineups, and while he isn’t a difference-maker to the point that his acquisition guarantees a playoff berth for either team this season, he is a cost-effective building block. He won’t come cheap, and the teams would have to part ways with premium talent, but a three-win player signed to a team-friendly contract is worth that type of return.
PLAYER: Carlos Pena
TEAM: Cubs
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Indians
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $10 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 2.0
Pena is by no means having a season reminiscent of his 2007 to 2009 performances with the Rays, but he’s still fairly adept in the field and he has remained, at worst, league average with the bat. There’s also room for improvement given his peripherals — his line drive rate has risen to its 2007-08 level and his contact rate is its highest since 2004.
The Indians wouldn’t have much interest in him as a designated hitter since Travis Hafner is in the midst of a good year at the dish, but Pena could form a fairly potent platoon with Matt LaPorta. Given the injuries to both Hafner and Sizemore, LaPorta could find himself in the outfield quite a bit, opening up a spot at first base for Pena.
If Sizemore is healthy but Hafner continues to miss time, one can slot in at DH. By acquiring Pena the Indians would fortify two questionable positions — LaPorta’s ability to sustain this production and Hafner’s health — without committing anything for the future or surrendering much in return.
PLAYER: Jason Kubel
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Blue Jays
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $5.25 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.5 (DH), 0.9 (1B)
Kubel is the classic example of a player whose perceived value is greater than his actual contributions. His higher batting averages and home run totals are intriguing, and he has primarily played in the corner outfield, where fielding inadequacies can be somewhat hidden. Even so, the fielding metrics frown on his efforts, and he’s a below-average baserunner. But Kubel has some power and could provide value to a contending team.
The Blue Jays have Adam Lind at first base, but Toronto is using Juan Rivera as its designated hitter. The team might be a year or two away from contending, but have played well so far, and could conceivably sneak its way into the wild card hunt. Kubel isn’t exponentially better than Rivera, but he certainly would be an offensive improvement.
He’s also the type of player who could be worth 1.5-2 wins above replacement per year as a full-time DH — at a nominal cost — should the Jays decide to re-sign him.
On the whole, designated hitters aren’t producing like they have in the past, and acquiring Kubel would allow Toronto to improve its offense this season without drastically hindering future payroll flexibility.
PLAYER: Josh Willingham
TEAM: Athletics
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Rangers, Braves
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $6 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Texas is still in first place though the Rangers are by no means running away with the division. Michael Young is having a solid season as a designated hitter, and Mitch Moreland has been a surprise at first base. But you have to wonder how the team will fare if it’s merely three games above .500 when both players are performing above expectations. To that end, Willingham makes a lot of sense. He could platoon with Moreland at first base, play a little outfield or fill in as designated hitter if injuries strike Young or Kinsler (in that case, Young would likely play the keystone).
At worst, Willingham would give the Rangers another potent bat on the bench and provide depth, an important component of roster management given the wear-and-tear over the course of the season.
The Braves offense has sputtered for most of the season, and while Freddie Freeman might be the first baseman of the future, it stands to reason that a platoon at first base wouldn’t be the worst thing for his development. Better prospects than Freeman have begun their major league initiations in a platoon, and Willingham essentially could become the right-handed version of Eric Hinske: big bat off the bench with some starts thrown in. And don’t discount the possibility that Willingham also could play the outfield in Atlanta, given that Joe Mather has started several games.
Willingham likely will get a multi-year deal after the season, but even as a one-year rental, he could improve a slumping offense.
PLAYER: Jim Thome
TEAM: Twins
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: One-year, $3 million, FA in 2012
PROJECTED WAR: 1.0
Thome cannot play the field anymore. He joked that he left his glove in Chicago when the Dodgers acquired him from the White Sox for the 2009 stretch-run. At 40 years old he also is close to the end of his career. Having said that, he still can be productive, and last year he gave the Twins 340 PAs of his peak offensive production. Thome returning to the Phillies wouldn’t only be a great story (his big contract back in 2003 helped usher in the Citizens Bank Park era of Phillies baseball), but he’d legitimately help the team.
Whether he pinch-hits or he serves as the designated hitter in interleague games, Thome would give the Phillies another huge weapon at minimal cost, which is a key consideration given the team’s proximity to the luxury tax threshold. Since Thome and Kubel are the Twins’ only assets capable of generating a decent return, GM Bill Smith can’t afford to get greedy and ask for the world.
From the Phillies standpoint, Ross Gload is battling a severe hip injury that will either force him to play with pain or will end his season. What makes more sense for a championship contending team: 60% of a mediocre left-handed pinch-hitter, or 100% of one of the best left-handed hitters in major league history who can still mash? That answer is pretty clear. The move might be a long-shot, especially if Gload isn’t put on the disabled list, but it makes sense on several levels.
Giants pitching.
Spoiler [+]
Quick, guess which team’s pitching staff has the lowest HR/FB rate in baseball. Okay, the subject probably gives away the answer, but even if it didn’t, the smart guess would have been San Francisco. After all, they’ve been dominating this category for the last decade.
We spent a decent amount of time this winter talking about the Giants ability to prevent home runs. It started off talking about Matt Cain, moved on to a broader discussion, and then shifted towards looking at whether Dave Righetti might be the key to understanding why San Francisco continues to keep the ball in the park better than any other team in baseball. While we don’t have a concrete answer yet, as more data piles up, three oft-cited factors are seeing their potential influences diminished – the pitchers themselves, sample size of the data, and park factors.
We’ll start with the latter. While AT&T Park is certainly part of the reason why the Giants have been able to depress home run rates over the years, their pitchers continue to carry this trait with them on road trips. In fact, the Giants HR/FB rate is lower on the road (5.7%, lowest in baseball) this year than it is at home (6.6%, 10th in baseball). These numbers aren’t as crazy low as they would have been a few years ago, as the league HR/FB rate continues to drop (it’s now just below nine percent for 2011), but there’s no denying that the Giants are once again allowing fewer home runs on fly balls than any other team in baseball. As we noted over the winter, the Giants have consistently been one of the best teams in baseball at preventing home runs away from their home park, and they’re continuing this trend again this year. There’s more going on here than playing half their games in an environment where it is hard to put the ball in the seats.
As for sample size, it continues to grow by the day. We’re going on 10 years of batted ball data now and the trend is remarkably consistent. If this was only a pattern seen over the last few years, it could still be seen as simply an outlier on the data, something that we’d expect to find given enough digging through a massive amount of numbers. But, the pattern is showing no signs of slowing up, and we’re now dealing with a decade’s worth of evidence. This stopped being a small sample size a while ago.
That leaves us with the final factor often referenced as a significant influence – the pitchers themselves. We’ve heard all kinds of theories for why Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are hard to hit home runs against, and some of them even sound like they have merit. However, it’s always been hard to ignore the glut of mediocre pitchers who showed up in San Francisco and immediately stopped giving up home runs upon arrival. Brett Tomko, Jerome Williams, Matt Morris, Russ Ortiz… these guys are not exactly Cy Young.
Well, we can another name to that pile – Ryan Vogelsong. He entered the season with a career 8.5% HR/FB rate in just under 300 innings in the Major Leagues, none of them coming since 2006. Now, thrust into the Giants rotation to replace Barry Zito, he’s tossed up a nifty little 4.0% HR/FB rate in 41 innings. By himself, he proves nothing, and a 40 inning sample isn’t all that useful. But, when taking a look at the Giants history of right-handed pitchers over the last ten years, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the team found a guy off the scrap heap and has turned him into a pretty decent starting pitcher. They’ve been doing this forever.
When I talked to Dave Righetti about this during Spring Training, he seemed genuinely interested and confused by the data at the same time. I’m right there with him. I find the Giants ability to keep this up both fascinating and bewildering – I don’t know that anyone knows how they’re doing it, but they’re doing it again, and it’s getting harder and harder to say that Righetti – or someone in the Giants organization – hasn’t figured out some way to either acquire or develop pitchers who just don’t give up home runs.
We spent a decent amount of time this winter talking about the Giants ability to prevent home runs. It started off talking about Matt Cain, moved on to a broader discussion, and then shifted towards looking at whether Dave Righetti might be the key to understanding why San Francisco continues to keep the ball in the park better than any other team in baseball. While we don’t have a concrete answer yet, as more data piles up, three oft-cited factors are seeing their potential influences diminished – the pitchers themselves, sample size of the data, and park factors.
We’ll start with the latter. While AT&T Park is certainly part of the reason why the Giants have been able to depress home run rates over the years, their pitchers continue to carry this trait with them on road trips. In fact, the Giants HR/FB rate is lower on the road (5.7%, lowest in baseball) this year than it is at home (6.6%, 10th in baseball). These numbers aren’t as crazy low as they would have been a few years ago, as the league HR/FB rate continues to drop (it’s now just below nine percent for 2011), but there’s no denying that the Giants are once again allowing fewer home runs on fly balls than any other team in baseball. As we noted over the winter, the Giants have consistently been one of the best teams in baseball at preventing home runs away from their home park, and they’re continuing this trend again this year. There’s more going on here than playing half their games in an environment where it is hard to put the ball in the seats.
As for sample size, it continues to grow by the day. We’re going on 10 years of batted ball data now and the trend is remarkably consistent. If this was only a pattern seen over the last few years, it could still be seen as simply an outlier on the data, something that we’d expect to find given enough digging through a massive amount of numbers. But, the pattern is showing no signs of slowing up, and we’re now dealing with a decade’s worth of evidence. This stopped being a small sample size a while ago.
That leaves us with the final factor often referenced as a significant influence – the pitchers themselves. We’ve heard all kinds of theories for why Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are hard to hit home runs against, and some of them even sound like they have merit. However, it’s always been hard to ignore the glut of mediocre pitchers who showed up in San Francisco and immediately stopped giving up home runs upon arrival. Brett Tomko, Jerome Williams, Matt Morris, Russ Ortiz… these guys are not exactly Cy Young.
Well, we can another name to that pile – Ryan Vogelsong. He entered the season with a career 8.5% HR/FB rate in just under 300 innings in the Major Leagues, none of them coming since 2006. Now, thrust into the Giants rotation to replace Barry Zito, he’s tossed up a nifty little 4.0% HR/FB rate in 41 innings. By himself, he proves nothing, and a 40 inning sample isn’t all that useful. But, when taking a look at the Giants history of right-handed pitchers over the last ten years, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the team found a guy off the scrap heap and has turned him into a pretty decent starting pitcher. They’ve been doing this forever.
When I talked to Dave Righetti about this during Spring Training, he seemed genuinely interested and confused by the data at the same time. I’m right there with him. I find the Giants ability to keep this up both fascinating and bewildering – I don’t know that anyone knows how they’re doing it, but they’re doing it again, and it’s getting harder and harder to say that Righetti – or someone in the Giants organization – hasn’t figured out some way to either acquire or develop pitchers who just don’t give up home runs.
Rays defense.
Spoiler [+]
A few weeks ago, with his team streaking back into contention, Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon tweeted about a key to his team’s success:
Indeed, the Rays’ defense has been fantastic this season. Tampa Bay leads the majors in ultimate zone rating, defensive runs saved, and defensive batting average on balls in play.
Tampa Bay’s defense this year is even more impressive considering it lost Carl Crawford, who led the team in UZR in 2010. The tandem of Matt Joyce and Sam Fuld have done well holding down Crawford’s spot in left field this season, tallying 1.6 and 2.6 UZR, respectively.
The biggest contributor to Tampa Bay’s defense this season is Evan Longoria, who has a 6.8 UZR despite missing the first month of the season. Longoria is off to a modest start offensively — .323 wOBA so far — but he is on fire defensively. His current UZR/150 is 54.5, which is based on a small 200-inning sample and certainly unsustainable for a full year, but impressive nonetheless.
The opposite case is B.J. Upton, who is having a resurgent offensive season, his .352 wOBA is his best mark since 2008, but is struggling in the field. Upton has never logged a negative UZR season in his career, but has a -2.7 mark so far this year, and a UZR/150 of -9.8. Upton’s defense has been on a downward trend in the last few years. His UZRs since 2008 are 7.8, 6.7 and 1.4. Based on that, it would not be surprising to see Upton have an average or below average defensive season in 2011, but his current pace seems extreme.
Exceptional defense is nothing new for the Rays. Tampa has finished first or second in the AL in UZR and in the top three of defensive BABIP in each of the last three years. Given, Tropicana Field is one of better pitchers parks in the majors, but the Rays’ defense is not simply a product of its home stadium:
In the first two years of the Joe Maddon era, the Rays’ defensive BABIP was about 10-percent worse than league average, both at home and on the road. In 2007, Maddon’s team played in the same ballpark as they do today, but it was second-worst in UZR and dead last in defensive BABIP. Starting in 2008, Tampa Bay’s BABIP has been better than league average every season. Tropicana Field’s large foul ground contributes to the split between home and road, although all teams generally have better BABIPs at home anyway.
The Rays are always looking for the extra edge needed to compete against the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox. Since they turned the corner in 2008, defense has been a big strength for Tampa Bay, and the first two months of 2011 are no exception.
Indeed, the Rays’ defense has been fantastic this season. Tampa Bay leads the majors in ultimate zone rating, defensive runs saved, and defensive batting average on balls in play.
Tampa Bay’s defense this year is even more impressive considering it lost Carl Crawford, who led the team in UZR in 2010. The tandem of Matt Joyce and Sam Fuld have done well holding down Crawford’s spot in left field this season, tallying 1.6 and 2.6 UZR, respectively.
The biggest contributor to Tampa Bay’s defense this season is Evan Longoria, who has a 6.8 UZR despite missing the first month of the season. Longoria is off to a modest start offensively — .323 wOBA so far — but he is on fire defensively. His current UZR/150 is 54.5, which is based on a small 200-inning sample and certainly unsustainable for a full year, but impressive nonetheless.
The opposite case is B.J. Upton, who is having a resurgent offensive season, his .352 wOBA is his best mark since 2008, but is struggling in the field. Upton has never logged a negative UZR season in his career, but has a -2.7 mark so far this year, and a UZR/150 of -9.8. Upton’s defense has been on a downward trend in the last few years. His UZRs since 2008 are 7.8, 6.7 and 1.4. Based on that, it would not be surprising to see Upton have an average or below average defensive season in 2011, but his current pace seems extreme.
Exceptional defense is nothing new for the Rays. Tampa has finished first or second in the AL in UZR and in the top three of defensive BABIP in each of the last three years. Given, Tropicana Field is one of better pitchers parks in the majors, but the Rays’ defense is not simply a product of its home stadium:
In the first two years of the Joe Maddon era, the Rays’ defensive BABIP was about 10-percent worse than league average, both at home and on the road. In 2007, Maddon’s team played in the same ballpark as they do today, but it was second-worst in UZR and dead last in defensive BABIP. Starting in 2008, Tampa Bay’s BABIP has been better than league average every season. Tropicana Field’s large foul ground contributes to the split between home and road, although all teams generally have better BABIPs at home anyway.
The Rays are always looking for the extra edge needed to compete against the deep-pocketed Yankees and Red Sox. Since they turned the corner in 2008, defense has been a big strength for Tampa Bay, and the first two months of 2011 are no exception.
New closer for the Royals.
Spoiler [+]
If, during Spring Training, you predicted Aaron Crow would make the Kansas City Royals 25 man roster, it’s likely people would have laughed at you. After all, he was coming off a poor season at Double A; in which he posted a 5.66 ERA and a less than spectacular 4.74 xFIP. If, once he made the team, you predicted he would be the Royals best reliever two months into the season, people would have had you committed to an institution. Well, we’re two months into the season and it looks like you should be the newest member of Mensa. Aaron Crow has already far surpassed expectations in his rookie season. Can he continue his dominance going forward, or does his current performance scream small sample size fluke?
The problem with evaluating Crow is his interesting path to the big leagues. Crow was a highly regarded prospect entering the 2008 draft. He did not sign, however, and chose to re-enter the draft the following season. Despite the layoff, the Royals selected Crow with the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft.
Unfortunately, the time away from baseball seemed to hurt Crow’s development.Though he actually performed well at his first stop in the minors, *As reader Yirmiyahu pointed out in the comments, Double A was Crow’s first stop. He was demoted due to his poor performance. Crow really struggled upon reaching Double A. Crow’s strikeout rate plummeted from 10.84 to 6.79 following the promotion, while his walk rate soared to an unsightly 4.45. Crow was so bad in Double A that the Royals actually sent him down to work out his issues. Based on that performance, it seemed highly unlikely that Crow would be pitching in the majors this season; let alone pitching this well.
Yet somehow, the 24 year old pitcher has all of his doubters eating crow this season.*
After a conversion to the bullpen, Crow has relied on mainly his fastball and slider to keep hitters off balance. He also flashes a curve, but has used it pretty sparingly this season. While his 95 mph heater has been effective, Crow’s slider has been his strongest weapon this season.
According to Pitch Type Values, Crow’s slider has been worth 4.10 runs above average; good for seventh among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. Due to the effectiveness of his two-pitch mix, Crow has struck out nearly a batter per inning in his rookie season.
While we only have 27.0 innings of major league performance to look at, it looks as if Crow can continue his strong performance as the season progresses. While his 1.33 ERA and left on base percentage are due for some regression, Crow still carries a 2.95 FIP and a 2.91 xFIP.
The Kansas City Royals have received a ton of criticism for mishandling prospects once they reach the major leagues. In the case of Crow, the Royals deserve credit for accurately evaluating what they had. Crow’s conversion to the bullpen has been a huge boost for the Royals this season. If his current performance is any indication, the Royals may have stumbled upon one of the best relievers in baseball for years to come. For a guy whose major league future was in doubt after last season, his performance this year deserves some big-time recognition.
*That’s the title of the article. Get it?
The problem with evaluating Crow is his interesting path to the big leagues. Crow was a highly regarded prospect entering the 2008 draft. He did not sign, however, and chose to re-enter the draft the following season. Despite the layoff, the Royals selected Crow with the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft.
Unfortunately, the time away from baseball seemed to hurt Crow’s development.
Yet somehow, the 24 year old pitcher has all of his doubters eating crow this season.*
After a conversion to the bullpen, Crow has relied on mainly his fastball and slider to keep hitters off balance. He also flashes a curve, but has used it pretty sparingly this season. While his 95 mph heater has been effective, Crow’s slider has been his strongest weapon this season.
According to Pitch Type Values, Crow’s slider has been worth 4.10 runs above average; good for seventh among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. Due to the effectiveness of his two-pitch mix, Crow has struck out nearly a batter per inning in his rookie season.
While we only have 27.0 innings of major league performance to look at, it looks as if Crow can continue his strong performance as the season progresses. While his 1.33 ERA and left on base percentage are due for some regression, Crow still carries a 2.95 FIP and a 2.91 xFIP.
The Kansas City Royals have received a ton of criticism for mishandling prospects once they reach the major leagues. In the case of Crow, the Royals deserve credit for accurately evaluating what they had. Crow’s conversion to the bullpen has been a huge boost for the Royals this season. If his current performance is any indication, the Royals may have stumbled upon one of the best relievers in baseball for years to come. For a guy whose major league future was in doubt after last season, his performance this year deserves some big-time recognition.
*That’s the title of the article. Get it?
The Slow Decline of A-Rod.
Spoiler [+]
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- Jun 14, 2006
dam i just heard the news about gary carter , inoperable brain cancer stage 4 ..
not a met fan but i remember carter being the heart of that 86 team that won it. hope he beats it but looks like theres nothing they can do.
sucks , his family just has to wait and enjoy him while he's here. life's too short fellas, enjoy it to the fullest while you can .......
not a met fan but i remember carter being the heart of that 86 team that won it. hope he beats it but looks like theres nothing they can do.
sucks , his family just has to wait and enjoy him while he's here. life's too short fellas, enjoy it to the fullest while you can .......
- 28,664
- 10,621
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2006
dam i just heard the news about gary carter , inoperable brain cancer stage 4 ..
not a met fan but i remember carter being the heart of that 86 team that won it. hope he beats it but looks like theres nothing they can do.
sucks , his family just has to wait and enjoy him while he's here. life's too short fellas, enjoy it to the fullest while you can .......
not a met fan but i remember carter being the heart of that 86 team that won it. hope he beats it but looks like theres nothing they can do.
sucks , his family just has to wait and enjoy him while he's here. life's too short fellas, enjoy it to the fullest while you can .......
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