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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions. - Page 682

post #20431 of 77343
I think the Cabrera deal is excellent, personally.
post #20432 of 77343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland View Post

I think the Cabrera deal is excellent, personally.

laugh.gif of course you do
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post #20433 of 77343
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHolesInMySocks View Post

When can Trout become a FA?


Another 3-4 years I believe? Angels can take him to arbitration after his current deal is up if I am not mistaken.
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post #20434 of 77343

Cabrera is now making around $50,000 for each at bat

TODAY I GOT TIME BRUV

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TODAY I GOT TIME BRUV

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post #20435 of 77343
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlBooBoo5 View Post

Cabrera is now making around $50,000 for each at bat

laugh.gif

Life. What some people can make of it... *sigh*
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post #20436 of 77343
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Originally Posted by dakid23 View Post

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Originally Posted by JumpmanFromDaBay View Post

Going to the Giants/A's tonight in SF! Couldn't pass up $12 lower level pimp.gif


Pac Bell or what ever it's called now is just smokin.gif

It is pimp.gif
post #20437 of 77343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Marcus View Post

Detroit will regret this deal in 3-4 years
post #20438 of 77343
Thread Starter 
If they're smart, they'll never put him in the field again and they'll still get 6+ wins out of him a year.

This is still insane. It'll be the Pujols deal in a few years. Or maybe he'll break the curse.
post #20439 of 77343
They used Scherzer's money he didn't take laugh.gif
I love Miggy and think he's top 3 best player in mlb, but at his age 10 years is absurd. Pujols deal was just as bad, and this one adds 50 mil to it

Baseball needs a salary cap
post #20440 of 77343
Thread Starter 
Miguel Cabrera deal a disaster for Detroit.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
In analyzing Miguel Cabrera's enormous contract extension with the Detroit Tigers, I might as well just re-run my column on the Ryan Howard contract from April 2010: Teams do not need to just to extend veteran players who are two years from free agency out into their late 30s (or beyond).

The Tigers might as well just light much of the $292 million they're giving to Cabrera on fire or invest it in downtown Detroit real estate, which probably wouldn't be any worse of an investment.

Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game but not the best player even in his own league, because being the best player involves more than just hitting -- defense matters, position matters, baserunning matters, and Miggy, while preternaturally gifted at hitting, isn't very good at those other things. He's been worth about seven WAR (wins above replacement) per season over the past few, and paying $30 million per year for that kind of production is probably reasonable, even if it implies that a free-agent version of Mike Trout would be worth the GDP of a small island nation.

Way too many years

The issues with the deal are the timing and the length. The timing makes no sense -- Cabrera had two seasons to go to free agency, and the Tigers could just as easily have taken care of this next winter, perhaps after making sure that Miggy stays healthy through the whole season. The leverage wouldn't have shifted; Cabrera would have been a year closer to free agency but a year older and perhaps a year heavier, too. He might have even declined offensively in the interim, although I wouldn't have bet on it. They could have even waited into 2015.

Any number of variables could have changed in the meantime that allowed them to strike a better deal; it is inconceivable that Cabrera's price would have gone up in that same span of time.

As for the length, we just went through this with Albert Pujols, who signed a heavily backloaded 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels before 2012, only to enter his decline phase on the flight out to Anaheim, Calif. His body has begun to break down, too, as we often see with bigger players in their 30s. Cabrera is now signed through an age-40 season that, as likely as not, won't ever happen.

History not on Miggy's side

Cabrera is peaking now, but hitters of his type -- bat-only corner guys -- no matter how good, decline into their 30s and do so, in general, more precipitously than more athletic or up-the-middle players. Many corner players who were nearly as productive in their 20s as Cabrera didn't even make it to age 40, guys like Ron Santo, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Bonds, Buddy Bell and **** Allen, none of whom played past age 37.

The history of players like Miggy in their 30s and early 40s isn't promising for Detroit. Only seven corner position players (first base, third base, left field, right field or designated hitter) have generated 40-plus WAR past age 30 since 1961. All but Roberto Clemente played at least through age 39. No pure first baseman has done it; Edgar Martinez, who played through age 41, is the only DH to do so. The top first basemen on the list were Willie Stargell at 36.2 and Rafael Palmeiro, whose career ended in disgrace after a positive performance-enhancing drug test, at 35.8.

None of the players on the list of 35-plus WAR has a listed weight higher than Chipper Jones' 210 pounds, although I think we can safely say Barry Bonds weighed north of that in his late 30s; Miggy is listed, somewhat conservatively, at 240. Jim Thome, listed at 250 pounds, had the highest WAR after age 30 of any player listed at 240 or above, with 32.9, followed by Frank Thomas at 23.3 and David Ortiz at 23.0.

Ortiz might be the best comparison for what the Tigers can reasonably hope to get from Cabrera. Papi has stayed healthy and productive into his late 30s, averaging 132 games and 4.1 WAR over the past seven seasons. He earned $28.5 million over the past two seasons and will make $31 million over the next two, or just a little more than what Miggy will make per season under the new deal. And the Boston Red Sox have kept his contracts limited in duration rather than committing to him a decade in ad***** -- with no evidence at all that this has cost them any kind of significant premium.

Cabrera will most likely be a $30 million-per-year player in 2014 and 2015, but the Tigers already had those years under control at salaries well below that mark. The problem is that, even with increasing revenues across MLB driving salaries up, he's unlikely to be a $30 million-per-year player in 2016 or 2017, and the odds of him being that in 2023 are infinitesimal.

He and Justin Verlander are now set to make about $58 million combined in 2019, playing in a market that is shedding population. It's not any better a formula from a business perspective than it is from a baseball one.

Timing of Miguel Cabrera deal is bizarre.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Miguel Cabrera's new contract, which is reportedly worth close to $300 million, should keep him with the Detroit Tigers for the rest of his career.

Most of the industry is shell-shocked and isn't sure how to react to this news. Here are my five key takeaways.

1. The timing is weird

If Cabrera happened to be a free agent this offseason, this is the kind of contract I would expect him to get. Problem is, he's not a free agent. In fact, he's under team control for two more years. Furthermore, he is coming off of back-to-back MVP awards, and you could argue that his leverage will never be greater. So why now, of all times, would you give him a contract extension?

If anything, this reeks of desperation after the Tigers couldn't get Max Scherzer to agree to a contract extension last week (more on that later), and the Tigers are giving off the vibe of a jilted lover on the rebound.

And with so many teams locking up their superstars before they hit free agency, it's not as if we're going to be see record-shattering contracts given to free agents the next two winters. Odds are, Cabrera's next two years won't be as good as his last by virtue of the fact that he was outrageously good the last two seasons, and because he turns 31 next month, which is when hitters typically start to decline.

2. Owners not learning

After the second Alex Rodriguez contract being a complete disaster and Albert Pujols' latest contract shaping up like one, you would have thought that owners would have finally learned their lesson about how players will age in the PED-testing era. Apparently not.

Every time we see a deal where a guy gets big money into his 40s, I'm left scratching my head. When this deal ends, Cabrera will be on the wrong side of 40, and the Tigers just set a precedent they don't have to set.

3. New plateau for superstars

With the average annual value of this deal looking like it will eclipse $30 million -- and the same goes for Clayton Kershaw's recent deal -- it's clear that we have reached a new plateau of $30 million per year for star players. Considering A-Rod first got $25 million per year in 2000, it's somewhat surprising it took this long.

4. Trout has to be thrilled

Speaking of new plateaus, this contract has to make Mike Trout and his agent very happy. If Miguel Cabrera is going to be getting more than $30 million per year, any contract for Trout has start at that amount for his free-agent years, and probably eclipse $40 million per year by the end of it.

It took a while for the league to get from $20 million per year to $30 million, but the jump from 30 to 40 won't take nearly as long.

5. Scherzer's last season in Detroit

From my perspective, this deal means that this will be Scherzer's last season with the Tigers. The club wanted him to take a six-year deal, he stood firm at seven, and they appear to have committed their resources elsewhere.

Scherzer will immediately become the best pitcher on the market next winter (assuming he's healthy), and the Tigers will likely turn their attention to the next group of arms, such as James Shields, Justin Masterson or Jon Lester, assuming he doesn't re-sign with Boston.

When will Trout's reign end?
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout clearly has established himself as the best player in Major League Baseball. He is ranked No. 1 in the "Baseball Tonight" 100, and he will be the favorite to remain on the top of this list for the next five years.

The rest of the top five will turn over, as there are a number of players who will move in and out over the next half-decade. Let’s have some fun and take a look at the guys who I think will populate the list of top-five players each year through the 2019 season.

Understand these lists are purely what I think could happen, and I'm assuming some amount of good health and luck during these five years, while hypothesizing some outcomes based on current performance and trajectory. I added some statistical projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections system, just to give you a sense of what the stats say about these guys. In some case, I'm a bit more optimistic than the computer models.

Top 5 players in 2015 (projected via ZiPS)

1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels (.289/.384/.505, 42 SB, 8.9 WAR)
2. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.48 ERA, 222 K's, 5.7 WAR)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates (.286/.375/.489, 6.2 WAR)
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers (.310/.397/.565, 35 HR, 5.2 WAR)
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants (.293/.369/.468, 6.3WAR)

After back-to-back AL MVP campaigns, Cabrera, who is No. 2 this year, should continue a slight descent down the list after ranking No. 1 a year ago.

Kershaw should claim another first- or second-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting this year, which would put him where he belongs -- as baseball’s second-best player behind Trout. McCutchen is the NL version of Trout: an all-around center fielder whose defense and speed should allow him to move past Cabrera. Posey has already won two World Series titles, an MVP Award, a Silver Slugger Award and a Rookie of the Year Award, and has been named to two All-Star Games. He should round out the top five.

Top 5 players in 2016

1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.270/.385/.493, 41 SB, 8.2 WAR)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins (2.65 ERA, 4.6 WAR)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates (.282/.373/.474, 5.8 WAR)
4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (2.50 ERA, 212 K's, 5.4 WAR)
5. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins (.259/.372/.552, 35 HR)

Last year, Fernandez was the best 20-year-old pitcher I had ever seen and he is only going to get better. By 2016 he should take over as the best pitcher in the game. His teammate, Stanton, also projects as a top-five player, and he is the only guy currently in the game I could ever see hitting 60 homers in a season, something that hasn't been done since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa did it in 2001.

Whether Stanton is playing for Miami or some other team, no ballpark will be able to tame his power. He has the potential to develop into one of the game’s all-time home run leaders, as long as recent knee problems don't become chronic.

Top 5 players in 2017

1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.271/.386/.491, 40 SB, 7.9 WAR)
2. Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets (2.93 ERA, 2.9 WAR)
3. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals (.288/.387/.571, 34 HR, 6.4 WAR)
4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.278/.358/.496, 4.1 WAR)
5. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles (.282/.330/.492, 5.5 WAR)

We finally start to see some real change on the list in 2017. By this time, Harvey will be three years removed from Tommy John surgery and a legit Cy Young Award winner. I have to assume the modest WAR projection is because there is some concern about recovery, and therefore his innings totals.

Likewise, all the tools brandished by Harper, Puig and Machado will have matured as they become superstars both on and off the field. All three position players should become perennial MVP, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove candidates.

Top 5 players in 2018

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels (.269/.381/.483, 36 SB, 7.6 WAR)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (2.73 ERA, 3.8 WAR)
3. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.274/.356/.492, 4.0 WAR)
4. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (.255/.378/.553, 36 HR, 6.5 WAR)
5. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets (2.91 ERA, 2.8 WAR)

So why does Fernandez appear on this list in 2016 and again here, but not in 2017? Call it a hunch that so many innings at such a young age will force him to miss some time in the next few years, which will hurt his ranking at some point. Puig and Harper are rock-solid behind Trout, while Harvey and Fernandez will have established themselves as the two best pitchers in baseball.

Top 5 players in 2019

1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.266/.376/.469, 32 SB, 7.2 WAR)
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (.286/.390/.573, 36 HR, 6.6 WAR)
3. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (.260/.342/.421, 3.7 WAR)
4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.272/.356/.494, 4.0 WAR)
5. Javier Baez, 2B, Chicago Cubs (.262/.315/.535, 36 HR, 4.5 WAR)

Baez, a shortstop now, will move to second base down the line and join Davey Johnson, Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg as the only second basemen in baseball to hit 40 home runs in a season. Baez will win his first NL MVP award while helping the Cubs make it to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

Buxton emerges as another threat to the top of the list, with Puig and Harper right there as well, giving us the best collection of outfield talent the game has seen in a while. This will be the second straight season that Harper isn't ejected from a game, and Puig will be working on his third consecutive year without a speeding ticket.

Rival execs aghast at Cabrera contract.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
To understand just how terrible the industry reviews are of the Detroit Tigers' deal with Miguel Cabrera, it's appropriate to draw on the examples from the movie industry.

The Cabrera deal, in the eyes, of rival executives, is Disaster Movie bad.

The Cabrera deal, in the eyes of officials with other teams, is Battlefield Earth bad.
It's is Heaven's Gate bad. It is Sahara bad.

Folks from around the sport believe that Cabrera's deal is a guaranteed loser, and they do not understand what the Tigers could be thinking to sign on for this money pit that they know will have ripple effects on the entire industry.

"I just don't get it," said one high-ranking NL executive. "They lost their minds."

Said another: "It's an awful deal for the Tigers, and it's worse for baseball."

The criticism of the contract should not be confused with criticism of Cabrera, whose skills as a hitter are universally respected. But executives with teams other than the Tigers ticked off a bunch of ideas Thursday evening that they believe would have been better than Detroit giving Cabrera -- who turns 31 in 21 days -- the largest contract in the history of professional sports.

Among those:

1. The Tigers could've waited

"Why now?" was the most-asked question among officials who talked about the deal on Thursday evening. They noted that Cabrera would not be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season, and the officials questioned believe that if the Tigers had taken the same offer to Cabrera in the fall or next spring, there's no chance he would've passed on it because of the scope of the contract.

"If they had waited, they would've gotten another year of information, another year to monitor his health," said one AL evaluator. "Maybe he'll suffer an injury this summer. He's a big guy, and you don't know how long his body will be able to hold up [at that weight]."

Said another: "If you give a player a long-term deal two seasons before free agency, you usually can expect some sort of discount. Where's the discount?"

An NL official: "When A-Rod got his deal from the Yankees, he was a free agent. Cabrera's not even close to free agency, and he gets the biggest deal ever. It makes no sense."

An NL evaluator: "Why assume risk when you don't have to?"

2. The Tigers could've saved money and reduced risk with a different contract structure

Under the terms of Cabrera's extension, he will get the highest annual salary for any player, ever. Executives with other teams are convinced the Tigers could've signed him without committing for so many seasons.

"You could give him $35 million for three seasons [in an extension]," said one official, "and you would've saved yourself more than $100 million in risk. Hell, you could give him $45 million a year for three years, and it would've been impossible for him to turn that down -- and you save money on the back end."

3. The Tigers could've used the David Ortiz deal as a talking point in the negotiations.

Defensively, Cabrera is viewed -- at best -- as a subpar first baseman, the position he will play in the immediate future, and rival officials assume that there will be a time within two or three years when the Tigers will shift Cabrera into a designated hitter role.

The highest-paid DH, by far, is David Ortiz, who just signed a one-year, $16 million extension. The DH spot is generally being deemphasized within the industry, with teams veering away from identifying a full-time player at that position -- and paying a high salary.

Elite starting pitchers, shortstops, second basemen, third basemen, center fielders are paid a premium because of how production at their respective positions is valued, and on the other hand, designated hitters and closers are generally at the bottom end of that scale.

"You could make the [negotiating] argument that his salary should go down over time, because once he becomes a DH, he loses some value," said an AL executive. "Maybe you could've said to him, ‘hey, we'll pay you X for the next few years, but after that, we'll have an adjustment.' But Cabrera's salary goes up."

The NL evaluator said, with a high degree of astonishment: "He's going to get double what Ortiz will make. At least with A-Rod, the Yankees had a player who was playing a premium position where his production is outsized. Cabrera adds nothing defensively. He actually is a negative defensively, and that's not going to improve over time."

Said an AL executive: "They basically gave him $100 million-plus in a retirement package."

Cabrera is poised to retire a Tiger, writes Lynn Henning.

• Dave Dombrowski and Max Scherzer cleared the air.

Around the league

• On Thursday's podcast, Tim Kurkjian previewed the American League West, and Derrick Goold ran through all things St. Louis. Well, the baseball team, anyway.

• CC Sabathia continues to pitch well with his diminished velocity.

• Prince Fielder hit a really, really long home run.

• The New York Mets have kept their wallets closed, writes Richard Sandomir and Ken Belson.

• Baseball's return to Montreal generates mixed feelings, writes Richard Griffin.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. At the outset of spring training -- before Grady Sizemore showed how great he could be -- Boston \ penciled-in plan was to use Daniel Nava in the leadoff spot against right-handers… and the Red Sox are sticking with that.

2. Hunter Pence says he won't be the prototypical No. 2 hitter.

3. Johnny Cueto is going to be the Opening Day starter.

4. Scott Diamond was magnanimous after being cut.

5. The Yankees sent some relief pitchers to the minors.

6. The Pirates are set at first base. For the moment.

7. The Astros claimed Alex Presley.

8. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start Sunday for the Dodgers.

9. Archie Bradley was sent to the minors.

10. Chris Young landed with Seattle.

The fight for jobs

1. Mike Olt won a job with the Cubs.

2. Jason Bartlett made the Twins' roster.

3. The Rockies picked some outfielders.

Dings and dents

1. Craig Breslow is going to open the season on the disabled list.

2. Nelson Cruz had a CAT scan.

3. Doug Fister has a lat strain.

4. Ed Lucas made the Marlins roster, and then got hurt.

Thursday's games

1. Scott Kazmir got the best of the Giants.

2. Corey Kluber went seven innings.

3. Aaron Harang made his debut with the Braves.

4. Tanner Scheppers had a good day.

AL East

• Xander Bogaert comes from humble roots, writes Stan Grossfeld.

• Baltimore's rotation is full of potential this year, writes Dan Connolly.

• Drew Hutchison looks like a keeper, writes Mike Rutsey.

• Tampa Bay is sticking with its rotation plan.

• The Rays are optimistic, writes Marc Topkin.

AL Central

• Here are five things the Royals learned, from Andy McCullough.

• Nick Swisher likes everything about the 2014 Indians.

• Adam Dunn is thinking full time.

AL West

• As noted within this Steve Kroner piece, Yoenis Cespedes hit the ball hard.

• Donnie Murphy is making an impression with Texas.

• The Angels are rolling.

• Ian Stewart is looking to rebound.

• The Mariners have taken a risk, writes Jerry Brewer.

NL East

• If the Mets don't pay up with Matt Harvey, the Yankees could, writes Joel Sherman.

• The Nationals will utilize defensive shifts this season.

• Matt Gelb writes about Ryan Howard and the question of whether he can bounce back.

• Dan Uggla has momentum coming out of spring training.

NL Central

• The Reds have some roster issues still in the air.

• Stephen Piscotty is this year's Michael Wacha.

• Rolling their spending forward could give the Cubs a chance to make a splash, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

• Ryan Braun is comfortable with his move to right field.

• Starling Marte wants to stay with the Pirates.

NL West

• The Padres' success could be contingent on staying healthy.

Other stuff

• Some teams are rolling out new items on their ballpark menus, leaving us to wonder if we should applaud, or be appalled.

The White Sox: An three-pound ice cream palooza. From the story: The sundae's foundation is four scoops each of vanilla, chocolate and strawberry ice cream. It comes drizzled with caramel, strawberry sauce and chocolate syrup, and includes two bananas, whipped cream and cherries. It will weigh about 3 pounds and cost $17.

The Rangers: Bacon on a stick. From the story: At $7 per piece, the new "bacon on a stick" at Globe Life Park will become available Monday, March 31, when the Rangers' season begins. It's dipped in maple glaze before being served, fork-free, to customers.

The Diamondbacks: A corn dog, with everything. From the story: It's an 18-inch corn dog stuffed with cheddar cheese, jalapenos and bacon, served with a side of fries. The cost? A cool $25.

• A federal judge is going to meet today with some involved in the Astros' network.

• Barry Larkin is excited to throw out the first pitch Monday.

And today will be better than yesterday.

Miguel Cabrera’s Terrible and Understandable Contract.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Yesterday, the Tigers agreed to make Miguel Cabrera the highest paid player in baseball history. If you look at the entirety of their future financial commitments to him as one single entity rather than two separate agreements, then this is the biggest contract in U.S. sports history. Over the next decade, the Tigers have agreed to pay Cabrera $292 million, a staggering figure for any player, and even more stunning given the context in which it was handed out. Cabrera turns 31 in less than a month. He wasn’t eligible to hit the free agent market for another two years. The contract begins with his age-33 season, and yet, without the benefit of free agency as leverage, he got more for eight years than Robinson Cano got for 10.

As you might imagine, I have a lot of thoughts about this contract. They don’t all agree with each other. So, let’s just go through the things I believe about this deal.

Point: The Tigers simply didn’t have to do this.

The Tigers already controlled Cabrera’s rights for the next two seasons, and were completely within their rights to tell him that they were going to hold off on talking about a new deal until next winter. This isn’t a young player with breakout potential whose cost could dramatically increase as he gets closer to free agency. In reality, Cabrera’s value can only really go down, given that even he likely can’t put up another 192 wRC+ season. The Tigers already paid for the rights to his 2014 and 2015 seasons, and while Cabrera might have wanted a long term commitment, they didn’t have to give him one now.

Counter Point: Deciding not to extend is a decision not to re-sign.

It’s easy to say that the Tigers could have just let Cabrera play out these final two years and then let the market tell him he wasn’t worth 8/$248M, but in practice, elite players who aren’t signed to long term extensions simply do not re-sign with their original clubs when they hit the free agent market. It just doesn’t happen.

Over the last five off-seasons, there have been 30 free agent contracts signed with a total value of $50 million or more. Of those 30 free agent contracts, exactly one — Derek Jeter — re-signed with the team that passed on giving him an extension before he got to free agency. Every other premium free agent changed teams, and realistically, we could argue that Jeter wasn’t really a premium free agent after the 2010 season, landing a $56 million guarantee only because of his history with the Yankees.

There’s just no recent example of a team telling a superstar that they weren’t interested in a pre-free agent extension and still managing to keep that player around. Not extending Cabrera would have simply been a decision to let Cabrera leave after the 2015 season and finish his career with another team. It is incompatible with the facts to suggest that the Tigers could have let him play out his contract and then re-signed him once they had more time to evaluate how well he had started to age. It doesn’t happen. Players who are not offered extensions don’t stick around. If the Tigers told Cabrera that they’d negotiate with him in two years, history strongly suggests he would not have stayed in Detroit. If they wanted to keep him beyond 2015, they had to give him an extension at some point before he reached free agency.

Point: This second half of this contract is going to be a disaster for the Tigers.

As good as Miguel Cabrera is now, the history of big heavy guys in their mid-to-late 30s is almost universally awful. Guys the size of Miguel Cabrera just don’t age well, as their bodies begin to betray them and they spend significant periods of time on the disabled list. We may already be seeing the beginnings of Cabrera’s physical decline, and his September performance was a reminder of how human a superstar can be at less than 100%.

Even with the move back to first base and the ability to DH if need be, Cabrera is unlikely to remain a full time, everyday player for the length of his contract. Even if the hitting skills don’t diminish, the durability will, and the latter portion of Frank Thomas‘ career — 400 to 500 good but not elite plate appearances per year — should be a realistic expectation for Cabrera during his new deal. He might not even lose his natural ability to hit a baseball, but it’s hard to earn $30 million per year from the disabled list.

Counter Point: Mike Ilitch probably doesn’t care much about the long term ramifications.

The Tigers owner is 84 years old. We can talk all we want about the folly of signing Cabrera through his age-40 season, but perhaps more relevantly, the Tigers just signed Cabrera through Ilitch’s age-93 season. Without being too morbid, I think you can make a pretty solid case that an 84 year old should put a very low value on what will happen 10 years into the future. If anyone should place a significant value on the present at the expense of the future, it is the age bracket to which Mr. Ilitch belongs. As they say, you can’t take it with you, and no one is going to throw a huge parade honoring his late career fiscal responsibility.

If he wants to see the team win a World Series while he’s alive, letting Miguel Cabrera walk is a poor decision. This move is almost certainly destructive to the organization’s long term future, but it probably isn’t very destructive to Mike Ilitch’s long term future, and he’s the guy holding the checkbook.

Counter Counter Point: Team owners should act as organizational stewards, not self interested overlords.

The Tigers franchise will not pass with Mr. Ilitch, so there’s a very decent chance that he has simply spent someone else’s future money to help improve his own odds of seeing the team win a World Series. He’s within his rights to do so, and no one is going to shy away from buying a hugely profitable Major League franchise simply because of one large liability on the books, but there’s an ethical argument to be made that owners have a duty to protect the franchise’s best interests even if they aren’t aligned with their own personal best interests.

While buying a team gives you the ability to use it as your own personal toy, professional sports franchises aren’t really private entities; they exist for the shared enjoyment of many. And the city of Detroit and Tigers fans everywhere are going to pay a toll due to this decision. This contract may make all the sense in the world for an elderly owner, but that doesn’t make it the right move for the franchise, and if one believes than an owner should act as a steward for the organization, than this contract is still irresponsible even if it’s rational for Mr. Ilitch to sign it.

Point: The Tigers are rich, so they don’t need to worry about spending money as efficiently as possible.

The Tigers have an estimated 2014 payroll of around $160 million, so they certainly do not have to operate on the same kind of budget as teams like the A’s. They have a new TV contract coming, and the sport as a whole is flooded with cash, so even with this contract, it’s not like the Tigers financial solvency is being threatened. Part of the value of having a big budget is that it allows you to overpay for great players without it crippling the franchise. The Giants won two World Series titles with Barry Zito on the books, after all. As long as they keep running up payrolls of $150+ million, having one bad $30 million contract on the books won’t kill them.

Counter Point: Funds are never unlimited; wasting resources is never helpful.

Even with their $160 million payroll, the Tigers are going into Opening Day with Rajai Davis in left field and some combination of Alex Gonzalez or Andrew Romine at shortstop. The Tigers have two glaring needs to upgrade, and yet are still passing on available quality veterans due to concerns about their cost. There is no such thing as a team that simply has so much money that salary is not a prohibitive restriction to adding talent. The Dodgers have the most expensive roster in baseball history and are starting a replacement level scrub at second base. The Yankees are the Yankees and boast an infield that might not be better than the Astros.

Money is always a constraint, and the money that the Tigers have just spent on an aging Cabrera will be money that can’t go to other players to fill other needs. There’s always an opportunity cost to signing a player, and if that player doesn’t produce enough value to justify his salary, it is detrimental to the franchise. Even rich franchises. Having Miguel Cabrera is great until having Miguel Cabrera is why you also have Alex Gonzalez.

Point: This contract is a ridiculous overpay.

The point of a pre-free agent extension is that a team gets a discount in exchange for taking away the player’s risk of injury before he gets a chance to land a big contract in free agency. By giving Cabrera the equivalent of 10/$292M when he was two years away from free agency, the Tigers are implicitly arguing that his open market value this winter would have been something more along the lines of $325 to $350 million.

There’s no reasonable justification for that valuation, not when Robinson Cano topped at $240 million and only had a single bidder over $175M. One can rationally prefer Cabrera to Cano, but there’s no way that Cabrera is 30% to 40% more valuable. Or, to put things into the Tigers own valuation formula, there’s no reasonable argument that Cabrera is twice as valuable as Max Scherzer, even though their final offer to him was less than half of what they have now committed to Cabrera. If the Tigres are lucky, they’ll end up paying something like $9 million per win over the life of Cabrera’s deal, and that’s including the two years that they already had under control. If they really wanted to throw this kind of money around, they simply could have done better than signing up for Cabrera’s entire decline phase.

Counter Point: There isn’t one. This deal is a ridiculous overpay.

I understand why the Tigers wanted to keep Miguel Cabrera around for the rest of his career. He’s going to go into the Hall of Fame as a Tiger, and he’ll be remembered as one of the greatest players to ever wear the Detroit uniform. It’s hard to let those guys leave. The Cardinals are pretty happy they let Albert Pujols go, though, and in a few years, the Tigers will wish they had let Cabrera go too.

As I find more POV's, I'll post em.
post #20441 of 77343
Money is good these days for the owners but they keep topping themselves with the bar they set, and the next player will need more and so on. Trout's agent best believe is ready.

Michael Rosenberg, SI.com:
Quote:
That is why this Cabrera deal is so illogical. What was the urgency here? Cabrera turns 31 next month. He has two years left on his contract. Even if Cabrera has another MVP-type season, as I suspect he will, would his price have been that much higher in a year? And even if the price did go up, why couldn't the Tigers just let Cabrera walk as a free agent? That's what the Cardinals did with Pujols, and one World Series appearance later, I'd say it worked out pretty well for them.

The Tigers assumed all the risk of this contract, and they didn't have to do it. They could have enjoyed two years of Cabrera's peak wCithout worrying about how he will age. That is every owner's dream.

Well, almost every owner.
Quote:
There is no delicate way to put this: Ilitch wants to win a World Series before he dies. He is 84 years old and his health has been a concern the last few years; recently, he missed the jersey retirement ceremony for Red Wings defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom because of health issues. If Ilitch was willing to lose money all those years when the Tigers were bad, you better believe he is willing to lose money to make them really good.

That was the impetus for the Fielder signing, the Pudge Rodriguez signing, the Magglio Ordonez signing and the Justin Verlander extension. Of those, only the Verlander extension made sense to other teams. But Ilitch doesn't care if his fellow owners think he is fiscally responsible, and the Tigers have won a lot of games in the past few years. It has been worth it to the owner.

Ilitch wants Cabrera to be a Tiger for as long as he owns the team. Ilitch wants to win the World Series, he has no interest in regrouping for a year, and he has a limited understanding of sabermetrics or statistical studies of aging ballplayers, even when the player is as undeniably great as Cabrera.

Years ago, Ilitch's general manager, Dave Dombrowski, would say that when you spend too much of your payroll on one player, it rarely works out. Dombrowski did not get dumber. He surely knows how risky this is. But Dombrowski has learned Ilitch will overpay for anybody he really wants, and he wants Cabrera more than anybody he has ever employed. The contract does not make sense because the player will get old. It happened because the owner already has.
post #20442 of 77343
Thread Starter 
If he really wanted to **** around and address like the one weakness they may have, he'd force DD to ship Castellanos to SD for Headley laugh.gif
post #20443 of 77343
Incredible.
post #20444 of 77343
Trout is going to get a billion dollars.

Seriously, he is.


These 30 year old dudes getting 10/300ish will be nothing compared to a guy that will be 25-26 and be even more valuable than they've been for their teams. He's going to get a 14 year - 900 million dollar offer or some ****. laugh.gif
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post #20445 of 77343
Thread Starter 
I've thought about it this past off season...and I think the Angels will offer him a part (very small) ownership to convince him to forego free agency if he has another two amazing seasons.
post #20446 of 77343
how does the whole arbitration work?
trout gonna get a 750M deal when his time is up
post #20447 of 77343
RE: Trout contract -- this was from John Heyman a couple weeks ago:
Quote:
Angels, Mike Trout still discussing new six-year deal

TEMPE, Ariz. -- Young superstar Mike Trout and the Angels continue to discuss six-year deals that would keep him in Los Angeles/Anaheim until he's 29 years old, with the sides maintaining a clear sense of optimism that something will eventually get done, likely somewhere in the $150 million range.

The focus is said to be mostly on the six-year length. That length would enable the Angels to extend him through his three arbitration years and more importantly three years of free agency while allowing him to bank about $150 million (or 50 times more than he's been guaranteed thus far, counting his amateur signing bonus) and also be in position to seek a monster free-agent contract as a 29-year-old, seven years from now.

While there's been a positive feeling since before the Angels gave Trout a record pre-arbitration $1 million contract for 2014 and that has extended through now, sources caution that they are still negotiating the exact dollar figure so no deal has been agreed to yet.

The Angels would prefer to buy out even more than three free-agent years, but it's believed that recent talks have centered around the six-year term.
post #20448 of 77343
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMan14 View Post

how does the whole arbitration work?
trout gonna get a 750M deal when his time is up

Hope this helps.
Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
In certain specific instances, a player and team may choose to go through a salary arbitration hearing in order to determine that player’s salary for the upcoming season.

Players are eligible for arbitration hearings if they meet any of the following requirements:

● They have at least three full seasons of MLB service time, and less than six. Players with six or more years of service time become free agents after their contracts have expired, while players with less than six seasons are under team-control. Up until players have acquired three seasons of service time, their salary is determined solely by their team. For years three through six, players can take their salary demands to an arbitration panel if they can’t reach an agreement with their team.

● If they have less then three full seasons of MLB service time, but are within the top 22% of players with more than two years of service time. This is called the “Super Two” exception, and it often leads to top prospects being held down in the minor leagues until they have passed the Super Two threshold. For more on this, see our Super Two page.

If a player qualifies for arbitration, they can still reach a contract agreement with their team and choose not to go to a hearing. If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, though, both sides submit their salary request to an arbitration panel. A hearing is conducted, and both sides are allowed to state why they believe the player’s salary should be set at the level they specified. The arbitration panel — an unbiased, third party — then decides which case is stronger, and awards the player the salary they deem most appropriate.

Arbitration panels are notoriously old school, and tend to make their decisions based on player comparisons and traditional statistics like RBIs and Wins. If you are interested in finding arbitration comps for specific players, you can search past historical results using MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration tracker tool.

It used to be that teams could offer soon-to-be free agents arbitration, and their draft pick compensation would be determined by if a player accepted or declined the offer. That has changed with the new CBA — see: Draft Pick Compensation for more details — and now teams can’t offer their free agents arbitration.

Teams must offer eligible players arbitration by December 12th, or else those players are non-tendered and released. After then, players and teams have until January 17th to reach an agreement, or else both sides must submit their salary demands to an arbitration panel. Hearings are conducted throughout the first few weeks of February.
post #20449 of 77343
Thread Starter 
Sad but true.



Them DUI's don't even raise an alarm laugh.gif
post #20450 of 77343
Quote:
Friday, March 28, 2014
Grady Sizemore to start in center
By Gordon Edes
ESPNBoston.com

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell announced Friday morning that Grady Sizemore will be the team's Opening Day center fielder, a prospect that seemed almost unimaginable when camp opened six weeks ago.

But Sizemore, who has undergone seven surgeries since 2009 and had not played in a game at any level the last two seasons, has passed all physical tests this spring and showed few ill effects from his long layoff, batting .333 with a home run.

Rookie outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. will open the season with Triple-A Pawtucket.

"To Grady's credit, he has answered the questions with his play, and he has responded physically," Farrell said.

Farrell shared his decision with the 31-year-old Sizemore, a three-time All-Star who signed a contract for a $750,000 base salary in late January, shortly before meeting with the media late Friday morning.

The manager said Sizemore took it in stride.

"He smiled," he said.

Sizemore, who was not scheduled to play Friday but said he will play in the team's exhibition finale Saturday, said he called his father, also named Grady, with the news.

"He took it in stride, like me," Sizemore said.

Sizemore was asked how this compared to making his first major league team as a 21-year-old in 2004.

"I'd say this was definitely a lot more satisfying," he said. "After going through what I've gone through, all the negative things that have happened, it's a long time since I've had positive news, a long time since I've been able to play, to feel this good in this setting, to look forward to coming to the ballpark not thinking, 'What's going to happen next? What's going to hurt today?' Everything's great."

Farrell said the plan is to continue with the same kind of progression that was prescribed for Sizemore this spring, where his playing time was gradually increased. Sizemore just played three games in a row, which is probably the same workload with which he'll begin the season, Farrell said.

"The durability with what we've been able to challenge him with, he's come out of it fine," Farrell said. "And even if he were to be asked to play today, he feels great to play a fourth consecutive day. However, we're not doing that based on the progression."

Sizemore said he wasn't even sure how much he would be able to run again in the wake of microfracture surgeries on both knees and a third knee procedure, as well as surgery on his back, elbow and two operations for sports hernias. He praised Dr. Dan Dyrek, the team's director of medical services, for laying out a comprehensive plan that has worked beyond Sizemore's fondest hopes.

"I think I'm getting there," Sizemore said when asked if he felt he could return to being the player he was before being injured. "I feel great now. I feel as good as I could have hoped coming in before camp, and I think there's still room for improvement.

"I'm not going to put high expectations on it. I'm going try keep improving on what I've done so far."

Farrell said the Red Sox don't believe that Sizemore has reached his ceiling.

"That's the thing that probably has us the most excited," Farrell said. "The repetition, and volume in spring training, he's not hit a physical threshold where there's pushback and it's, 'Uh-oh, his body is not responding, we've got to stop.' There's been none of that. So the gradual increase of games played, there's a cautious level of optimism that he'll become an everyday player again."

Farrell said the club was "open-minded" about the competition for the center-field job, and he acknowledged the improbability of Sizemore having recovered to the degree he has.

"This is a rarity," Farrell said. "There's no question about it. I think it speaks to his work ethic and athleticism. Those are the two main ingredients for why he's going north."

Bradley, who has hit .158 this spring and struck out a team-high 17 times in 57 at-bats, remains a "critical" part of the team's plans, Farrell said.

"Like any competitor, he was disappointed, as we fully expected him to be," Farrell said. "He's a very driven athlete. He looks upon this as a challenge to meet and get back to the big leagues.

"Jackie is critically important to us, not just for today but for what we would consider a long period of time, and we anticipate him being on our major league roster at some point this season. We don't know when. We think it's important for Jackie to go down and get some regular at-bats and get on a little bit of a roll and kind of get his game going, and be like we know Jackie can be."

Bradley showed only glimpses of the player who had stirred so much excitement last spring.

"I knew it was going to be a competing thing," he said. "[Sizemore] played well. I didn't perform in spring training, but I feel like I'm ready for the season and ready to prove it."

"We all didn't, I guess, see Jackie Bradley Jr. this spring," he added.

Asked if he could appreciate what Sizemore had accomplished, making it back to this point, Bradley said: "Oh yeah. For anybody, if you said you didn't admire what he had been through and the things he's been able to do, you'd be lying. He's amazing, a great ballplayer, great person, great teammate."

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post #20451 of 77343

Give me $500,000 a year. I be his personal chauffeur. Anytime of the the day. I'll be on call. Hell I'll even wear that stupid hat.

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post #20452 of 77343
Thread Starter 
Damn, that's great for Grady pimp.gif
post #20453 of 77343
He'll be hurt in 2 weeks, if not sooner.
post #20454 of 77343
he costs less than $1M. he's basically free. i'll take 3 games if i can laugh.gif

i would think we don't plan on playing him 6 nights a week
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post #20455 of 77343
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proshares View Post

Damn, that's great for Grady pimp.gif
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post #20456 of 77343
is there a reason that LA and AZ already started regular season games?
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post #20457 of 77343
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadsetAce View Post

is there a reason that LA and AZ already started regular season games?

MLB likes $$$. And wants a global audience.
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post #20458 of 77343
oh these are the overseas games, right? totally forgot laugh.gif
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post #20459 of 77343
Trout and Angels agree to 6 year extension smokin.gifsmokin.gifsmokin.gif
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post #20460 of 77343

6yr $140M deal for Trout and Angels. 

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