2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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Eh, maybe. I think him and Omar Vizquel are probably still borderline when they get to 3,000. Can you think of years when either one was truly up there for best at their position as Jeter was most years? Esp in Omar's case, you play 24-25 years it kinda takes the luster off getting only 3,000 hits.
Eh, maybe. I think him and Omar Vizquel are probably still borderline when they get to 3,000. Can you think of years when either one was truly up there for best at their position as Jeter was most years? Esp in Omar's case, you play 24-25 years it kinda takes the luster off getting only 3,000 hits.
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I agree w. everything you said....but are there any 3000+ hit members NOT in the HOF (save Pete Rose)?
What's going to help their cause is the fact that they have both remained "clean" during the roid era.
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I agree w. everything you said....but are there any 3000+ hit members NOT in the HOF (save Pete Rose)?
What's going to help their cause is the fact that they have both remained "clean" during the roid era.
Yea, they'll definitely get a lot closer to the 75% than they probably would have since they'll both get the "clean" vote.
I heard an interesting debate the other day about that was bound to come up with the comparison between Cal and Jeter. I still think he's below Cal on the all time list with SS's but I wouldn't say he's that far behind. I'd say he's a little above Larkin now though. Rings aside.
Anywho.
Matt Moore impressive in Futures Game.
Who's next to 3,000?
Defensive Trades.
Power arms on display at the Futures Game.
Toughest 2nd half schedules.
Comparing Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
I heard an interesting debate the other day about that was bound to come up with the comparison between Cal and Jeter. I still think he's below Cal on the all time list with SS's but I wouldn't say he's that far behind. I'd say he's a little above Larkin now though. Rings aside.
Anywho.
Matt Moore impressive in Futures Game.
Spoiler [+]
After watching http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays')">Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospect Matt Moore's clean one-inning, one-strikeout performance for Team USA in Sunday's Futures Game, I sent out the following tweet:
"My editor is going to have to keep me from writing 5000 words about Matt Moore - with a lot of exclamation points..."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesMatt Moore was throwing in the high 90s at the Futures Game, but when will he reach the majors?
This won't be 5,000 words, and I will do my best to keep the excess punctuation down, but the sentiment remains the same.
I mentioned in my video preview of the game that Moore was the arm I was most looking forward to seeing, as he's continued to be not just effective, but dominant, after moving to Double-A this season. He did not disappoint on Sunday, as he was the most impressive arm in the Futures Game. What does he think he's doing better this year?
"Focusing on one pitch at a time and get strike one over," Moore said before the game. "Good things happen when I do that."
The numbers show that Moore has led the minor leagues in strikeouts the last two seasons, and he hasn't missed a beat this year with 125 in 96 2/3 innings, including an 11-K no-hitter in mid-June. For his pro career, Moore has fanned more than 12 1/2 batters per nine innings with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including a rate approaching 5-to-1 this season. The 22-year-old southpaw is on pace to drop his walk rate substantially for the third season in a row (from 5.1 to 3.8 to 2.4 per nine) as he moves up the ladder. He is indeed getting strike one over more.
He's listed at 6-foot-2, but that's a little generous. Then again, it doesn't matter. He has a loose arm that was bringing fastballs in the 96-98 mph range in a short stint, with what scouts call "easy" velocity. In All-Star Games, where prospects only throw one inning, we often see the radar gun lit up a little higher because the pitchers don't have to hold anything back, but it was impressive nonetheless. The late life on his fastball, getting run on the arm side, just adds to its effectiveness.
The tilt on Moore's 86-88 mph slider makes it a nasty pitch, and though he didn't really get a chance to show it off in this game, the reports on Moore's circle change this year state that it is much improved as well. Moore's progression this year has not been just about strike one, but also about the development of his changeup to give him a legitimate third weapon. Despite striking out 208 batters last year, Moore said the organization told him he needed to go to his change more this season.
"I use [the change] as much or more than my breaking ball now," Moore said. "It went from being a pitch I threw 6 to 8 percent of the time to something I throw 15 to 20 percent of the time. It's become a real good pitch for me, and I've got a real good feel for it now. All I had to do was just start throwing it. The pitch was there, but it just wasn't polished up because I hadn't been throwing it."
One other thing I liked about Moore was that he was aggressive and worked quickly. I've heard from other scouts that the limited times he's gotten into trouble this season are sometimes caused by speeding up his delivery a little too much and getting on more of an east-west plane instead of staying on-line to the plate. Still, if that's what we're quibbling about, Moore is in good shape.
When will he see him in the majors? The Rays generally take a slower, more patient approach to promoting and developing their pitching prospects, and they have enough starting pitching depth and options that they don't need to rush Moore. If we see him this year, it may only be for a cameo. 2012 is when we can start looking for some potential impact, but regardless, Moore is a must-have in keeper and dynasty formats.
The bottom line: In the video preview, I said that Moore was "arguably" the best pitching prospect in the game. Despite getting just a limited look on Sunday, as far as I'm concerned there is no argument.
"My editor is going to have to keep me from writing 5000 words about Matt Moore - with a lot of exclamation points..."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesMatt Moore was throwing in the high 90s at the Futures Game, but when will he reach the majors?
This won't be 5,000 words, and I will do my best to keep the excess punctuation down, but the sentiment remains the same.
I mentioned in my video preview of the game that Moore was the arm I was most looking forward to seeing, as he's continued to be not just effective, but dominant, after moving to Double-A this season. He did not disappoint on Sunday, as he was the most impressive arm in the Futures Game. What does he think he's doing better this year?
"Focusing on one pitch at a time and get strike one over," Moore said before the game. "Good things happen when I do that."
The numbers show that Moore has led the minor leagues in strikeouts the last two seasons, and he hasn't missed a beat this year with 125 in 96 2/3 innings, including an 11-K no-hitter in mid-June. For his pro career, Moore has fanned more than 12 1/2 batters per nine innings with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including a rate approaching 5-to-1 this season. The 22-year-old southpaw is on pace to drop his walk rate substantially for the third season in a row (from 5.1 to 3.8 to 2.4 per nine) as he moves up the ladder. He is indeed getting strike one over more.
He's listed at 6-foot-2, but that's a little generous. Then again, it doesn't matter. He has a loose arm that was bringing fastballs in the 96-98 mph range in a short stint, with what scouts call "easy" velocity. In All-Star Games, where prospects only throw one inning, we often see the radar gun lit up a little higher because the pitchers don't have to hold anything back, but it was impressive nonetheless. The late life on his fastball, getting run on the arm side, just adds to its effectiveness.
The tilt on Moore's 86-88 mph slider makes it a nasty pitch, and though he didn't really get a chance to show it off in this game, the reports on Moore's circle change this year state that it is much improved as well. Moore's progression this year has not been just about strike one, but also about the development of his changeup to give him a legitimate third weapon. Despite striking out 208 batters last year, Moore said the organization told him he needed to go to his change more this season.
"I use [the change] as much or more than my breaking ball now," Moore said. "It went from being a pitch I threw 6 to 8 percent of the time to something I throw 15 to 20 percent of the time. It's become a real good pitch for me, and I've got a real good feel for it now. All I had to do was just start throwing it. The pitch was there, but it just wasn't polished up because I hadn't been throwing it."
One other thing I liked about Moore was that he was aggressive and worked quickly. I've heard from other scouts that the limited times he's gotten into trouble this season are sometimes caused by speeding up his delivery a little too much and getting on more of an east-west plane instead of staying on-line to the plate. Still, if that's what we're quibbling about, Moore is in good shape.
When will he see him in the majors? The Rays generally take a slower, more patient approach to promoting and developing their pitching prospects, and they have enough starting pitching depth and options that they don't need to rush Moore. If we see him this year, it may only be for a cameo. 2012 is when we can start looking for some potential impact, but regardless, Moore is a must-have in keeper and dynasty formats.
The bottom line: In the video preview, I said that Moore was "arguably" the best pitching prospect in the game. Despite getting just a limited look on Sunday, as far as I'm concerned there is no argument.
Who's next to 3,000?
Spoiler [+]
Well, Derek Jeter finally got his 3,000th hit. The last few turned out to be the most difficult, with a trip to the disabled list turning the last leg of Jeter's chase into a marathon.
While people confidently project the end of the 300-game winner, nobody thinks the 3,000-hit club is nearing extinction. So, who's next? The ZiPS projection system has eight players with at least a 1 percent chance and five with at least a 10 percent chance of collecting their 3,000th hit over the next eight years.
[h4]Jeter's shot at 4,000[/h4]
Now that Jeter has 3,000 hits, there aren't many clear milestones left. He already has the most hits as a shortstop and the most hits as a Yankee. Rickey Henderson's runs scored mark is too far away and A-Rod, younger by two years, is already ahead of him. And for greatest American League shortstop ever, he's either already passed Cal Ripken if you think Jeter's a decent defender, or hopelessly behind Ripken if you think he isn't (I'll avoid this sticky wicket for the time being). On a personal level, Jeter's best shot at a future individual milestone are the 4,000-hit mark and Pete Rose's 4,256.
Throughout most of his career, Jeter's been one of the very few hitters with a chance to get to 4,000. A very small one, no doubt, but even having a greater-than-zero chance of pulling it off is a pretty rare feat. Jeter's shot at 4,000 has evaporated in the past year and a half. It's hard to remember while watching Jeter this year, but he was an MVP candidate just two years ago with an excellent health record. He still has a shot, as there's certainly at least some chance at a late-career surge, though it's hard to see that right now. The ZiPS projection system estimates the odds at about 340-to-1, down from about 30-1 after 2009. So even now, Jeter reaching 4,000 hits wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world to happen.
Getting to 4,000 is unlikely for everyone. Even for Ty Cobb and Rose, their shots at 4,000 were fairly long until late in their careers due to unknowns such as health. As a result, 4,256 hits is probably insurmountable for Jeter. Any scenario that gets Jeter to 4,000 involves him bouncing back, staying healthy and playing well into his 40s and limping across the finish line. That means that 4,256, for Jeter at least, now appears to be the equivalent of the 3-minute mile.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguezAlex Rodriguez has 2,762 hits and is a near-lock to get to 3,000. ZiPS sees him having a 98 percent chance, and it's likely he'll get to 3,000 in 2013. And while it seems strange that we've come to this point, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damonJohnny Damon (78 percent, 2013) is also on a strong approach path. After Damon, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jonesChipper Jones has a slight chance (6 percent), but I'll easily take the under on that considering Chipper threatens retirement every offseason and probably doesn't have the inclination to stretch his career that long. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3576/vladimir-guerreroVladimir Guerrero (38 percent, 2016) and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4570/ichiro-suzukiIchiro Suzuki (36 percent, 2016) are two more players who have seen their chances decline thanks to poor seasons. And when you're in your mid-to-late 30s, a poor season or two is hard to make up when you're racing against father time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3441/edgar-renteriaEdgar Renteria still technically has a 1 percent shot, as his age (he's still just 34) and hit total (2,281) are promising, but he's playing too poorly nowadays to get enough at-bats to make a serious run. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3878/adrian-beltreAdrian Beltre started young enough to give him a chance (7 percent, 201
and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujolsAlbert Pujols is still in a great position to get his last thousand hits (75 percent, 201.
A few players near 3,000 have simply run out of time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2523/ivan-rodriguezIvan Rodriguez and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2149/omar-vizquelOmar Vizquel are within 200 knocks, but they both look like they'll fall short. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2974/manny-ramirezManny Ramirez retired after his failed drug test, leaving him within 500 forever, and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3727/miguel-tejadaMiguel Tejada may be done after a terrible 2011.
Further off, there are a lot of possibilities. A lot can happen over 10-15 years, so nobody in their 20s is a slam dunk, no matter how good they are, but several players have established chances. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5544/miguel-cabreraMiguel Cabrera got an early start and is playing at an MVP level and at a projected 3,035 hits (48 percent chance), has the best established chance of the younger players. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5035/carl-crawfordCarl Crawford isn't having a pretty season, but he also has the most hits of anyone in their 20s. ZiPS has him finishing at 2,762, with a 28 percent chance. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5411/jose-reyesJose Reyes comes in at 2,680, with a 24 percent chance of reaching the milestone. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6204/robinson-canoRobinson Cano is projected to finish with 2,815 hits, which is a 32 percent shot. Unless http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez has really forgotten how to hit, his projection of 2,880 hits and a 24 percent chance make him a contender.
If we go even younger, it becomes increasingly speculative, but that doesn't mean there aren't some early candidates for 3,000 hits. It may seem silly to talk about http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30450/starlin-castroStarlin Castro, but he's very young, with 250 hits and a career .303 batting average at the age of 21. He's projected at 2,501 hits and a 17 percent chance, but this could either increase or decrease rapidly based on how he develops. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton's not a great hitter for average, but 500 hits before your 24th birthday is a nice cushion -- ZiPS projects him at 2,690 with a 21 percent chance at 3,000.
While the 3,000-hit mark is likely to be passed repeatedly, it still remains an impressive achievement for the length of time and excellence it requires to surpass. Even the least impressive members of the club, Lou Brock and possibly Johnny Damon, were really good ballplayers for a long time.
A lot has been said over the past year about Jeter's steep decline, and rightfully so, but for at least one game this season, it's nice to take a break from watching Jeter's decline to celebrate the player he was.
While people confidently project the end of the 300-game winner, nobody thinks the 3,000-hit club is nearing extinction. So, who's next? The ZiPS projection system has eight players with at least a 1 percent chance and five with at least a 10 percent chance of collecting their 3,000th hit over the next eight years.
[h4]Jeter's shot at 4,000[/h4]
Throughout most of his career, Jeter's been one of the very few hitters with a chance to get to 4,000. A very small one, no doubt, but even having a greater-than-zero chance of pulling it off is a pretty rare feat. Jeter's shot at 4,000 has evaporated in the past year and a half. It's hard to remember while watching Jeter this year, but he was an MVP candidate just two years ago with an excellent health record. He still has a shot, as there's certainly at least some chance at a late-career surge, though it's hard to see that right now. The ZiPS projection system estimates the odds at about 340-to-1, down from about 30-1 after 2009. So even now, Jeter reaching 4,000 hits wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world to happen.
Getting to 4,000 is unlikely for everyone. Even for Ty Cobb and Rose, their shots at 4,000 were fairly long until late in their careers due to unknowns such as health. As a result, 4,256 hits is probably insurmountable for Jeter. Any scenario that gets Jeter to 4,000 involves him bouncing back, staying healthy and playing well into his 40s and limping across the finish line. That means that 4,256, for Jeter at least, now appears to be the equivalent of the 3-minute mile.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguezAlex Rodriguez has 2,762 hits and is a near-lock to get to 3,000. ZiPS sees him having a 98 percent chance, and it's likely he'll get to 3,000 in 2013. And while it seems strange that we've come to this point, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damonJohnny Damon (78 percent, 2013) is also on a strong approach path. After Damon, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jonesChipper Jones has a slight chance (6 percent), but I'll easily take the under on that considering Chipper threatens retirement every offseason and probably doesn't have the inclination to stretch his career that long. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3576/vladimir-guerreroVladimir Guerrero (38 percent, 2016) and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4570/ichiro-suzukiIchiro Suzuki (36 percent, 2016) are two more players who have seen their chances decline thanks to poor seasons. And when you're in your mid-to-late 30s, a poor season or two is hard to make up when you're racing against father time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3441/edgar-renteriaEdgar Renteria still technically has a 1 percent shot, as his age (he's still just 34) and hit total (2,281) are promising, but he's playing too poorly nowadays to get enough at-bats to make a serious run. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3878/adrian-beltreAdrian Beltre started young enough to give him a chance (7 percent, 201
and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujolsAlbert Pujols is still in a great position to get his last thousand hits (75 percent, 201.A few players near 3,000 have simply run out of time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2523/ivan-rodriguezIvan Rodriguez and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2149/omar-vizquelOmar Vizquel are within 200 knocks, but they both look like they'll fall short. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2974/manny-ramirezManny Ramirez retired after his failed drug test, leaving him within 500 forever, and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3727/miguel-tejadaMiguel Tejada may be done after a terrible 2011.
Further off, there are a lot of possibilities. A lot can happen over 10-15 years, so nobody in their 20s is a slam dunk, no matter how good they are, but several players have established chances. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5544/miguel-cabreraMiguel Cabrera got an early start and is playing at an MVP level and at a projected 3,035 hits (48 percent chance), has the best established chance of the younger players. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5035/carl-crawfordCarl Crawford isn't having a pretty season, but he also has the most hits of anyone in their 20s. ZiPS has him finishing at 2,762, with a 28 percent chance. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5411/jose-reyesJose Reyes comes in at 2,680, with a 24 percent chance of reaching the milestone. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6204/robinson-canoRobinson Cano is projected to finish with 2,815 hits, which is a 32 percent shot. Unless http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez has really forgotten how to hit, his projection of 2,880 hits and a 24 percent chance make him a contender.
If we go even younger, it becomes increasingly speculative, but that doesn't mean there aren't some early candidates for 3,000 hits. It may seem silly to talk about http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30450/starlin-castroStarlin Castro, but he's very young, with 250 hits and a career .303 batting average at the age of 21. He's projected at 2,501 hits and a 17 percent chance, but this could either increase or decrease rapidly based on how he develops. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton's not a great hitter for average, but 500 hits before your 24th birthday is a nice cushion -- ZiPS projects him at 2,690 with a 21 percent chance at 3,000.
While the 3,000-hit mark is likely to be passed repeatedly, it still remains an impressive achievement for the length of time and excellence it requires to surpass. Even the least impressive members of the club, Lou Brock and possibly Johnny Damon, were really good ballplayers for a long time.
A lot has been said over the past year about Jeter's steep decline, and rightfully so, but for at least one game this season, it's nice to take a break from watching Jeter's decline to celebrate the player he was.
Defensive Trades.
Spoiler [+]
With over half of MLB's 30 teams within five games of their division lead, the demand for impact hitters and starting pitchers far exceeds the supply. As economists would explain, we can expect prices to skyrocket in these situations as sellers look to auction their top players to the highest bidder.
As a result, teams looking to bolster their lineups for the pennant race might be better off targeting certain players whose defensive play can have the same impact as a slugger or ace pitcher. Fortunately, defensive talent is more affordable than comparable upgrades.
The Colorado Rockies have gotten a jump on the market, acquiring defensive stalwart Mark Ellis from the A's for a fringe prospect and the infamous Player To Be Named Later, shoring up second base, their weakest defensive position (an estimated -12 Runs Saved this year). While Ellis is no longer at his defensive peak (24 Runs Saved and a second-place finish in Fielding Bible Award voting in 200, if he simply plays average defense in the second half he's a 10-run improvement the rest of the season, which translates to roughly one win in the standings. Since the trade, the thin Colorado air has also rejuvenated Ellis' bat, certainly an unexpected bonus for the Rockies.
Which other teams could benefit the most from defensive upgrades at certain positions?
[h3]Philadelphia Phillies -- Left Field (-11 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Phillies fans have been quick to call for an upgrade over rookie rightfielder Domonic Brown after a slow start at the plate; many conclude from the bumpy beginning to his MLB career that his minor league development was unnecessarily rushed (though he spent a similar amount of time in the upper levels of the minors as Evan Longoria, and with equal or better production). However, leftfielder Raul Ibanez has been a bigger detriment, struggling just as much at the plate and even worse in the field.
The Phillies could use a right-handed or switch-hitting corner outfielder who improves the team defensively, and they might not have to leave the division to find one. Switch-hitting Carlos Beltran has excelled in the move from centerfield to right (10 Runs Saved so far this year) and has rebounded nicely at the plate. Further, Beltran's contract stipulates that he cannot be offered arbitration when he hits free agency this offseason, so the Mets don't have to worry about Beltran sticking around past 2011 and coming back to haunt them. Though inter-divisional trades are rare, this one might actually make sense for both sides.
[h3]Detroit Tigers -- Entire Infield (-29 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Formerly an elite defensive third baseman, Brandon Inge is struggling on both sides of the ball this year. Jhonny Peralta is having a great bounce-back season at the plate but is a little out of his element at shortstop (-8 Runs Saved). At second base, the combination of Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn is also having a hard time on both offense and defense.
The Tigers would benefit from a good defensive shortstop, allowing Peralta to shift to second or third. The team would get a reasonable boost in the field, but Jim Leyland's lineup would also benefit by mixing and matching Inge and Santiago as potential platoon players. Jack Wilson and J.J. Hardy should be considered here, if the latter doesn't sign an extension with Baltimore first.
[h3]St. Louis Cardinals -- Shortstop (-16 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Last offseason, the Cardinals were convinced that Brendan Ryan needed to be replaced by a stronger offensive player, so they signed another "Ryan," Ryan Theriot, and traded Brendan to Seattle for fringe prospect Maikel Cleto.
The Cardinals were correct about Brendan's offense: he hit .223 with non-existent power last season, while Theriot hit .270 with a comparable lack of power. Translating their production into runs, Brendan created 35 runs at the plate in 2010 according to Bill James' Runs Created, while Theriot totaled 57. If the Cardinals expected both to produce at similar levels this year, 22-run offensive upgrade is certainly substantial.
However, Brendan's defensive value more than compensates for the offensive difference. Brendan saved an estimated 27 runs with his glove last year, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Runs Saved metric; Theriot finished with -5 Runs Saved last year. Quite simply, the Cardinals' new shortstop doesn't produce as many groundouts as the old one, amounting to a 32-run defensive gap last year. Despite Brendan's abysmal bat, his glove made him a more valuable player.
The trend has continued in 2011. Brendan Ryan has been more valuable at the plate (27 Runs Created to Theriot's 35), but far more valuable in the field (7 Runs Saved to Theriot's -15). To top it off, Brendan's salary ($1 million) is a fraction of his replacement's ($3.3 million).
The Cardinals' staff is also the second-heaviest groundball unit in the league, so a strong defensive shortstop would be especially valuable. Leading ground ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook both have higher ERAs than their peripheral numbers indicate, according to the statistic FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). If St. Louis doesn't want to take another look at Brendan Ryan, perhaps Jack Wilson, J.J. Hardy, or Clint Barmes will do the trick? Even if manager Tony LaRussa wants to keep playing Theriot regularly, the Cardinals would benefit from a defensive platoon where a defensive-minded shortstop makes the start when Garcia or Westbrook is on the mound.
[h3]Pittsburgh Pirates -- First Base (-8 Runs Saved), Second Base (-7 Runs Saved)[/h3]
If the Pirates see themselves as contenders (and why shouldn't they?), they'll need a few upgrades without mortgaging their future. As mentioned above, impact starting pitchers or hitters are likely going to cost multiple prospects, so the Pirates would be wise to consider cheap defensive upgrades.
Additionally, low-cost free agent acquisition Lyle Overbay has been a disappointment at the plate and in the field. Neil Walker is also not a good defensive infielder, with -9 Runs Saved last year and -5 this year.
The Pirates will be getting a bat with impact potential with Pedro Alvarez coming off the disabled list. However, Alvarez is a poor defensive third baseman according to scouting reports, and the numbers agree: in 1,100 MLB innings, Alvarez has cost Pittsburgh an estimated 16 runs in the field.
Alvarez might provide a boost to the lineup, but his glove could sink the team's infield defense. With Overbay struggling on both sides of the ball, perhaps the Pirates should cut ties with Overbay, move Alvarez to first and pick up a cheap defensive-minded infielder to play third base. The new alignment would be stronger defensively, and the third baseman couldn't be much worse than Overbay at the plate. Seattle's Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson have been pushed aside by the promotions of Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, so both veteran infielders might be available even if the Mariners still hope to contend.
[h3]Cleveland Indians -- Second Base (-7 Runs Saved)[/h3]
The Indians' infield has struggled defensively this season, despite a triple play the first weekend of the year and Asbrubal Cabrera's multiple Web Gems. The fact is that Matt LaPorta (-8 Runs Saved), Orlando Cabrera (-7 Runs Saved across three positions), and Asdrubal (-5 Runs Saved) don't reach as many ground balls as they should, especially behind a pitching staff reliant on so many grounders.
Time will tell how rookie Lonnie Chisenhall will fare at the hot corner, but it might be time to look for alternatives to Orlando Cabrera at second base. Any of the previously mentioned infielders could be considered, including Adam Kennedy and Clint Barmes.
Additionally, a recent injury to star rightfielder Shin-Soo Choo has the team searching for a replacement for Choo's potent bat and strong arm from right field. Carlos Beltran would provide both, as would Jeff Francoeur to a lesser extent.
[h3]Atlanta Braves -- Center Field (-3 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Rumors have the Braves inquiring about outfield bats, and neither Nate McLouth nor Jordan Schafer has hit well enough to stay in the lineup. While McLouth has historically rated terribly in centerfield (-38 Runs Saved over six seasons, including -5 this year), at least Schafer has rates around average.
If the search for an outfield bat comes up empty, perhaps a defensive upgrade would be in order. Mike Cameron (1 Run Saved in 2011) was just cut in Boston and Carlos Gomez (16 Runs Saved) is having trouble getting into the lineup regularly in Milwaukee, while Denard Span (9 Runs Saved) and Peter Bourjos (19 Runs Saved) have prospects sneaking up behind them and may become expendable in the near future. The A's might also consider trading Coco Crisp (8 Runs Saved).
[h3]Milwaukee Brewers -- Third Base (-6 Runs Saved) and Shortstop (-10 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Casey McGehee rated poorly at third base last season (-8 Runs Saved), and he rates poorly again this season (-7 Runs Saved); the only difference is that McGehee stopped hitting this year, too. Yuniesky Betancourt has rated as one of the worst shortstops for several consecutive seasons; the only difference this year is that Yuni has shown that he can't hit National League pitching, either. Ron Reinecke's aggressive shifting philosophy hasn't changed the fact that neither is a good defensive infielder.
Milwaukee is clearly going for broke this season before Prince Fielder hits free agency, and if they want to make their best run in a competitive division they should consider defensive upgrades on the left side of the infield. The team may hold out hope for McGehee's bat to come around, but Betancourt has been consistently ineffective on both sides of the ball. Any of the aforementioned shortstops would be an improvement, as would Jayson Nix and Jack Hannahan, whose current jobs are in jeopardy by prospects Brett Lawrie and Lonnie Chisenhall, respectively.
As a result, teams looking to bolster their lineups for the pennant race might be better off targeting certain players whose defensive play can have the same impact as a slugger or ace pitcher. Fortunately, defensive talent is more affordable than comparable upgrades.
The Colorado Rockies have gotten a jump on the market, acquiring defensive stalwart Mark Ellis from the A's for a fringe prospect and the infamous Player To Be Named Later, shoring up second base, their weakest defensive position (an estimated -12 Runs Saved this year). While Ellis is no longer at his defensive peak (24 Runs Saved and a second-place finish in Fielding Bible Award voting in 200
, if he simply plays average defense in the second half he's a 10-run improvement the rest of the season, which translates to roughly one win in the standings. Since the trade, the thin Colorado air has also rejuvenated Ellis' bat, certainly an unexpected bonus for the Rockies.Which other teams could benefit the most from defensive upgrades at certain positions?
[h3]Philadelphia Phillies -- Left Field (-11 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Phillies fans have been quick to call for an upgrade over rookie rightfielder Domonic Brown after a slow start at the plate; many conclude from the bumpy beginning to his MLB career that his minor league development was unnecessarily rushed (though he spent a similar amount of time in the upper levels of the minors as Evan Longoria, and with equal or better production). However, leftfielder Raul Ibanez has been a bigger detriment, struggling just as much at the plate and even worse in the field.
The Phillies could use a right-handed or switch-hitting corner outfielder who improves the team defensively, and they might not have to leave the division to find one. Switch-hitting Carlos Beltran has excelled in the move from centerfield to right (10 Runs Saved so far this year) and has rebounded nicely at the plate. Further, Beltran's contract stipulates that he cannot be offered arbitration when he hits free agency this offseason, so the Mets don't have to worry about Beltran sticking around past 2011 and coming back to haunt them. Though inter-divisional trades are rare, this one might actually make sense for both sides.
Formerly an elite defensive third baseman, Brandon Inge is struggling on both sides of the ball this year. Jhonny Peralta is having a great bounce-back season at the plate but is a little out of his element at shortstop (-8 Runs Saved). At second base, the combination of Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn is also having a hard time on both offense and defense.
The Tigers would benefit from a good defensive shortstop, allowing Peralta to shift to second or third. The team would get a reasonable boost in the field, but Jim Leyland's lineup would also benefit by mixing and matching Inge and Santiago as potential platoon players. Jack Wilson and J.J. Hardy should be considered here, if the latter doesn't sign an extension with Baltimore first.
Last offseason, the Cardinals were convinced that Brendan Ryan needed to be replaced by a stronger offensive player, so they signed another "Ryan," Ryan Theriot, and traded Brendan to Seattle for fringe prospect Maikel Cleto.
The Cardinals were correct about Brendan's offense: he hit .223 with non-existent power last season, while Theriot hit .270 with a comparable lack of power. Translating their production into runs, Brendan created 35 runs at the plate in 2010 according to Bill James' Runs Created, while Theriot totaled 57. If the Cardinals expected both to produce at similar levels this year, 22-run offensive upgrade is certainly substantial.
However, Brendan's defensive value more than compensates for the offensive difference. Brendan saved an estimated 27 runs with his glove last year, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Runs Saved metric; Theriot finished with -5 Runs Saved last year. Quite simply, the Cardinals' new shortstop doesn't produce as many groundouts as the old one, amounting to a 32-run defensive gap last year. Despite Brendan's abysmal bat, his glove made him a more valuable player.
The trend has continued in 2011. Brendan Ryan has been more valuable at the plate (27 Runs Created to Theriot's 35), but far more valuable in the field (7 Runs Saved to Theriot's -15). To top it off, Brendan's salary ($1 million) is a fraction of his replacement's ($3.3 million).
The Cardinals' staff is also the second-heaviest groundball unit in the league, so a strong defensive shortstop would be especially valuable. Leading ground ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook both have higher ERAs than their peripheral numbers indicate, according to the statistic FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). If St. Louis doesn't want to take another look at Brendan Ryan, perhaps Jack Wilson, J.J. Hardy, or Clint Barmes will do the trick? Even if manager Tony LaRussa wants to keep playing Theriot regularly, the Cardinals would benefit from a defensive platoon where a defensive-minded shortstop makes the start when Garcia or Westbrook is on the mound.
If the Pirates see themselves as contenders (and why shouldn't they?), they'll need a few upgrades without mortgaging their future. As mentioned above, impact starting pitchers or hitters are likely going to cost multiple prospects, so the Pirates would be wise to consider cheap defensive upgrades.
Additionally, low-cost free agent acquisition Lyle Overbay has been a disappointment at the plate and in the field. Neil Walker is also not a good defensive infielder, with -9 Runs Saved last year and -5 this year.
The Pirates will be getting a bat with impact potential with Pedro Alvarez coming off the disabled list. However, Alvarez is a poor defensive third baseman according to scouting reports, and the numbers agree: in 1,100 MLB innings, Alvarez has cost Pittsburgh an estimated 16 runs in the field.
Alvarez might provide a boost to the lineup, but his glove could sink the team's infield defense. With Overbay struggling on both sides of the ball, perhaps the Pirates should cut ties with Overbay, move Alvarez to first and pick up a cheap defensive-minded infielder to play third base. The new alignment would be stronger defensively, and the third baseman couldn't be much worse than Overbay at the plate. Seattle's Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson have been pushed aside by the promotions of Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, so both veteran infielders might be available even if the Mariners still hope to contend.
The Indians' infield has struggled defensively this season, despite a triple play the first weekend of the year and Asbrubal Cabrera's multiple Web Gems. The fact is that Matt LaPorta (-8 Runs Saved), Orlando Cabrera (-7 Runs Saved across three positions), and Asdrubal (-5 Runs Saved) don't reach as many ground balls as they should, especially behind a pitching staff reliant on so many grounders.
Time will tell how rookie Lonnie Chisenhall will fare at the hot corner, but it might be time to look for alternatives to Orlando Cabrera at second base. Any of the previously mentioned infielders could be considered, including Adam Kennedy and Clint Barmes.
Additionally, a recent injury to star rightfielder Shin-Soo Choo has the team searching for a replacement for Choo's potent bat and strong arm from right field. Carlos Beltran would provide both, as would Jeff Francoeur to a lesser extent.
Rumors have the Braves inquiring about outfield bats, and neither Nate McLouth nor Jordan Schafer has hit well enough to stay in the lineup. While McLouth has historically rated terribly in centerfield (-38 Runs Saved over six seasons, including -5 this year), at least Schafer has rates around average.
If the search for an outfield bat comes up empty, perhaps a defensive upgrade would be in order. Mike Cameron (1 Run Saved in 2011) was just cut in Boston and Carlos Gomez (16 Runs Saved) is having trouble getting into the lineup regularly in Milwaukee, while Denard Span (9 Runs Saved) and Peter Bourjos (19 Runs Saved) have prospects sneaking up behind them and may become expendable in the near future. The A's might also consider trading Coco Crisp (8 Runs Saved).
Casey McGehee rated poorly at third base last season (-8 Runs Saved), and he rates poorly again this season (-7 Runs Saved); the only difference is that McGehee stopped hitting this year, too. Yuniesky Betancourt has rated as one of the worst shortstops for several consecutive seasons; the only difference this year is that Yuni has shown that he can't hit National League pitching, either. Ron Reinecke's aggressive shifting philosophy hasn't changed the fact that neither is a good defensive infielder.
Milwaukee is clearly going for broke this season before Prince Fielder hits free agency, and if they want to make their best run in a competitive division they should consider defensive upgrades on the left side of the infield. The team may hold out hope for McGehee's bat to come around, but Betancourt has been consistently ineffective on both sides of the ball. Any of the aforementioned shortstops would be an improvement, as would Jayson Nix and Jack Hannahan, whose current jobs are in jeopardy by prospects Brett Lawrie and Lonnie Chisenhall, respectively.
Power arms on display at the Futures Game.
Spoiler [+]
Power arms were the order of the day at this year's Futures Game, as expected, with at least nine pitchers touching 96 mph or better and two guys running it up to 98 on Sunday. A number of those pitchers project as No. 1 starters when you consider their repertoires and deliveries.
Most impressive in that group were left-hander Matt Moore (Tampa Bay) and right-hander Carlos Martinez (St. Louis). Moore was 94-98 with a very sharp slider at 86-87 with late, hard tilt and a solid-average changeup at 86, and he showed a loose arm and an easy delivery that he repeated well over the course of his inning. Martinez was just as easy and loose, working at 96-98 but having his fastball play up because it got in on hitters so quickly. He threw a hard slurve at 80-82 with very sharp two-plane break -- it's a curveball but has more tilt than most curves do as he gets a little on the side of it, but the result is just an evil pitch. He could turn over a changeup as well. Martinez didn't command the ball as well as Moore did but was just as aggressive.
Two other NL East right-handers stood out with big fastballs and sharp curveballs. Jarred Cosart of the Phillies was 96-97 with a mid-70s curveball that had some angle but seemed to break sharply away from right-handers at the last second. However, he does cut himself off a little in his delivery, causing him to come across his body. That's not good for a guy who's already missed some time with arm soreness. Arodys Vizcaino of Atlanta was also 96-97 with some life up in the zone and a hard 82-83 mph curveball that had two-plane action and great depth. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but didn't seem to get much extension out front. Both are potential No. 1 starters if they stay healthy, as Vizcaino missed a chunk of 2010 with a partial tear in his elbow ligament.
I'll have more on other Futures Game pitchers later, but here are some quick thoughts on hitters who stood out one way or another:
• Jose Altuve (Houston) is tiny -- apparently only about 5-foot-5½ if you ask him -- and recent history is very much against him on that count. It does look like these insanely high batting averages he's posting aren't a fluke, though. He does wrap his bat slightly with his hands high and deep, but after that he does just about everything right, with plenty of hand strength to whip the bat around into the zone and very good rotation from top to bottom to drive the ball. He's not a burner and looks like he'll have only doubles power, but if you hit in the low-.300s with a handful of walks and solid defense at second base, you're at least an everyday player -- and probably a fan favorite.
• Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore) was the most impressive hitter overall, especially in batting practice. He gets great extension through the zone and controls the bat head well, with good balance overall and solid hip rotation for power. He's not a great runner and is in search of a position; he was a shortstop but wasn't going to stay there, and so far this year he's spent time at second and third, mostly second, where he appeared briefly Sunday. His bat profiles at either spot, and he does have the arm for third.
• Diamondbacks prospect Paul Goldschmidt earned plenty of cheers despite an 0-for-4 day with a punchout. He sets up like Jeff Bagwell with a very wide base and virtually no stride, just a stutter-step as a trigger that doesn't start his weight transfer. He generates power from his lower and upper halves, although he doesn't load his hips at all, but once he starts his swing he rotates his torso and hips in sync and shows easy pull power. If you're looking for the glass-half-empty forecast, he's a first baseman only who doesn't have great bat speed, just a good eye and that big power, and first base is a tough place to profile offensively.
• The feel-good story of the day was Tim Beckham (Tampa Bay) smoking a double off Kelvin Herrera during the U.S. team's eighth-inning rally, turning on a 92 mph fastball and showing that he still can run a little even though he's gotten bigger since high school. Beckham's defense reportedly has improved substantially this season, and he was having a great season at the plate until about four weeks ago, when a five-game hitless streak shaved 50 points off his season OPS, but the offensive standard at short is so low that he can still profile as a regular there. And with fellow prospect Hak-Ju Lee showing good instincts at short, good running speed and a quick bat, the Rays seem to have a surplus at the position.
• It wasn't the greatest day for Bryce Harper, who struck out twice in an 0-for-4 day, but he did show off his arm with a throw from the left-field corner that looked like it was shot from a bazooka. He struck out on some pretty tough pitches, but more importantly, the game made clear what he has to work on -- recognizing quality off-speed stuff, especially changeups, because pitchers will change speeds on him all day until he shows he can make that adjustment. I know Nationals fans can't wait to see Harper in Washington, but bringing him up this season (which the team has said it won't do) wouldn't do him any favors. He'll be a superstar on his timetable.
Later, I'll go into several other players, including the game's MVP, Grant Green, and its youngest prospect, Jurickson Profar, as well as several of the pitchers I didn't mention in this story.
Most impressive in that group were left-hander Matt Moore (Tampa Bay) and right-hander Carlos Martinez (St. Louis). Moore was 94-98 with a very sharp slider at 86-87 with late, hard tilt and a solid-average changeup at 86, and he showed a loose arm and an easy delivery that he repeated well over the course of his inning. Martinez was just as easy and loose, working at 96-98 but having his fastball play up because it got in on hitters so quickly. He threw a hard slurve at 80-82 with very sharp two-plane break -- it's a curveball but has more tilt than most curves do as he gets a little on the side of it, but the result is just an evil pitch. He could turn over a changeup as well. Martinez didn't command the ball as well as Moore did but was just as aggressive.
Two other NL East right-handers stood out with big fastballs and sharp curveballs. Jarred Cosart of the Phillies was 96-97 with a mid-70s curveball that had some angle but seemed to break sharply away from right-handers at the last second. However, he does cut himself off a little in his delivery, causing him to come across his body. That's not good for a guy who's already missed some time with arm soreness. Arodys Vizcaino of Atlanta was also 96-97 with some life up in the zone and a hard 82-83 mph curveball that had two-plane action and great depth. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but didn't seem to get much extension out front. Both are potential No. 1 starters if they stay healthy, as Vizcaino missed a chunk of 2010 with a partial tear in his elbow ligament.
I'll have more on other Futures Game pitchers later, but here are some quick thoughts on hitters who stood out one way or another:
• Jose Altuve (Houston) is tiny -- apparently only about 5-foot-5½ if you ask him -- and recent history is very much against him on that count. It does look like these insanely high batting averages he's posting aren't a fluke, though. He does wrap his bat slightly with his hands high and deep, but after that he does just about everything right, with plenty of hand strength to whip the bat around into the zone and very good rotation from top to bottom to drive the ball. He's not a burner and looks like he'll have only doubles power, but if you hit in the low-.300s with a handful of walks and solid defense at second base, you're at least an everyday player -- and probably a fan favorite.
• Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore) was the most impressive hitter overall, especially in batting practice. He gets great extension through the zone and controls the bat head well, with good balance overall and solid hip rotation for power. He's not a great runner and is in search of a position; he was a shortstop but wasn't going to stay there, and so far this year he's spent time at second and third, mostly second, where he appeared briefly Sunday. His bat profiles at either spot, and he does have the arm for third.
• Diamondbacks prospect Paul Goldschmidt earned plenty of cheers despite an 0-for-4 day with a punchout. He sets up like Jeff Bagwell with a very wide base and virtually no stride, just a stutter-step as a trigger that doesn't start his weight transfer. He generates power from his lower and upper halves, although he doesn't load his hips at all, but once he starts his swing he rotates his torso and hips in sync and shows easy pull power. If you're looking for the glass-half-empty forecast, he's a first baseman only who doesn't have great bat speed, just a good eye and that big power, and first base is a tough place to profile offensively.
• The feel-good story of the day was Tim Beckham (Tampa Bay) smoking a double off Kelvin Herrera during the U.S. team's eighth-inning rally, turning on a 92 mph fastball and showing that he still can run a little even though he's gotten bigger since high school. Beckham's defense reportedly has improved substantially this season, and he was having a great season at the plate until about four weeks ago, when a five-game hitless streak shaved 50 points off his season OPS, but the offensive standard at short is so low that he can still profile as a regular there. And with fellow prospect Hak-Ju Lee showing good instincts at short, good running speed and a quick bat, the Rays seem to have a surplus at the position.
• It wasn't the greatest day for Bryce Harper, who struck out twice in an 0-for-4 day, but he did show off his arm with a throw from the left-field corner that looked like it was shot from a bazooka. He struck out on some pretty tough pitches, but more importantly, the game made clear what he has to work on -- recognizing quality off-speed stuff, especially changeups, because pitchers will change speeds on him all day until he shows he can make that adjustment. I know Nationals fans can't wait to see Harper in Washington, but bringing him up this season (which the team has said it won't do) wouldn't do him any favors. He'll be a superstar on his timetable.
Later, I'll go into several other players, including the game's MVP, Grant Green, and its youngest prospect, Jurickson Profar, as well as several of the pitchers I didn't mention in this story.
Toughest 2nd half schedules.
Spoiler [+]
You'd love to have a lot of games against the Dodgers in the second half except on the days that Clayton Kershaw is pitching. The Mariners have a young and thin lineup, so you might be glad to see Seattle on your schedule -- but not if you happened to catch it when Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda are on the hill. Washington doesn't have a great record, but the Nationals have been playing well in the past month.
And while the Giants might appear to have a relatively easy schedule for the second half, they always seem to play 2-1 and 3-2 games regardless of which team is in the other dugout.
So the concept of strength of schedule has a lot of variables. The Reds are under .500, but they have the kind of talent that makes them very dangerous; they are capable of getting hot and ripping off 10 straight wins.
But schedules are something that the guys in the suits -- the general managers and assistant GMs -- will take a close look at as they decide whether and when to pull a trigger on moves. The Diamondbacks had easily the toughest schedule of all NL teams in the first quarter of this season, and after they weathered it with a record close to .500, the Arizona brain trust viewed its team as a possible contender. Now the Diamondbacks have what appears to be a stunningly favorable second-half schedule.
Arizona closes the year with a bounty of home games, and 40 percent -- 40 percent -- of its remaining games are against the Dodgers and Padres.
The Rays had a relatively easy schedule out of the gate, but it has gotten rougher of late, and their seas will only get higher in the second half.
Let's rank the second-half schedules for contenders among both leagues from toughest to easiest, with contender being defined as any team that was fewer than 10 games out of first place at the start of play on Saturday.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 36
Noteworthy: Tampa Bay has 26 games in the second half against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Big Finish: Thirteen of the Rays' final 19 games are against the Yankees and the Red Sox. Yeesh.
2. Seattle Mariners
Home/away: Thirty-three of their final 71 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 46
Noteworthy: In the last nine days before the trade deadline, the Mariners will run the gamut of AL East teams, with consecutive series against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.
Big Finish: Seven of the Mariners' final 10 games will be on the road.
3. Minnesota Twins
Home/away: Forty-two of their last 73 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 41
Noteworthy: Look again at the huge number of home games for the Twins in the second half -- the most of any contending team. But they have a rainout makeup at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 19 wedged into a long homestand that won't be easy.
Big Finish: The Twins' final three games are at home against the Royals.
4. Texas Rangers
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 35
Noteworthy: Texas still has seven games left with Boston and six with Tampa Bay; the Rangers are finished with the Yankees.
Big Finish: Nine of the Rangers' final 12 games will be on the road.
5. Chicago White Sox
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 37
Noteworthy: Chicago opens the second half with a nine-game road trip.
Big Finish: The White Sox close the season with a nice six-game homestand versus the Royals and the Jays.
6. Boston Red Sox
Home/away: 36 of 72
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 33
Noteworthy: Boston clubbed the Orioles before the All-Star break, and the Red Sox will get more chances to do that, with 10 games remaining against Baltimore.
Big Finish: The Red Sox close their season with six consecutive road games -- at New York and Baltimore.
7. New York Yankees
Home/away: 32 of 74
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: The Yankees have the fewest home games remaining among the contenders, and they still have one major West Coast trip remaining, with a swing through Anaheim and Seattle.
Big Finish: The last nine games for the Yankees will be an AL East-palooza -- six against the Rays and three against the Red Sox.
8. Los Angeles Angels
Home/away: 33 of 70
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Between now and the trade deadline, the Angels will live on the road -- 14 of 17 games. After that, it's relatively easy.
Big Finish: The Angels' final six games are at home -- versus Oakland, then versus Texas.
9. Cleveland Indians
Home/away: Thirty-six of their final 73 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 25
Noteworthy: The Indians have a total of four games left against the AL East trio of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay -- just one series at Fenway Aug. 1-4.
Big Finish: The Indians are in Detroit for the final three games of the season, and it could be for all the marbles.
10. Detroit Tigers
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 23
Noteworthy: The Tigers have 12 games remaining against Cleveland in the second half. Big Finish: Detroit closes out with seven consecutive home games.
Here are the rankings for the National League (to repeat, the rankings are from toughest remaining schedules to easiest):
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Phillies had one of the easiest schedules of the year at the outset of the season, but it'll be tougher in the second half -- and the Phillies might be better equipped with Chase Utley back.
Big Finish: The Phillies close out the season on the road -- at New York and at Atlanta. One final test.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 38
Noteworthy: The Cardinals' first nine games after the All-Star break are against decent teams, on the road -- at Cincinnati, at New York, at Pittsburgh.
Big Finish: If the Cardinals are close entering the last week, this could bode well -- their last six games are against the National League's worst teams, the Cubs and Astros.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Home/away: Thirty-six of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Pirates could tilt one way or the other by Aug. 14 because they have a lot of games against contenders between now and then -- including a seven-game road swing that will take them through Atlanta and Philadelphia leading up to the trade deadline.
Big Finish: Ten of the Pirates' final 13 games are on the road.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Home/away: Thirty-four of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Brewers open the second half with 11 consecutive road games -- through Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco.
Big Finish: The Brewers will close out the season with six home games against the Marlins and Pirates.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 35
Noteworthy: The Reds' first 16 games after the All-Star break are against teams with records over .500 -- a big mountain to climb right away.
Big Finish: The Reds' last six games will be on the road against the Pirates and Mets.
6. Colorado Rockies
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 32
Noteworthy: Starting near the end of August, the Rockies have a nine-game road swing against division rivals that could be pivotal for them.
Big Finish: The Rockies have seven games on the road in the last week, with four at Houston and three at San Francisco.
7. Atlanta Braves
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 29 Noteworthy: Twenty-five of the Braves' last 44 games are at home. Big Finish: The Braves host the Phillies for the final three games of the season, and the division title may be on the line.
8. San Francisco Giants
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Every game the Giants play in September will be within the Pacific time zone, which makes for pain-free travel.
Big Finish: The Giants have a 10-game road trip before they come home for the final three games against Colorado.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 25
Noteworthy: Whether the Diamondbacks continue to press the Giants will depend a lot on their play against the San Diego Padres and Dodgers -- they have 28 games against the Padres and Los Angeles.
Big Finish: The Diamondbacks end the season with nine consecutive home games.
• After the Yankees' wrenching loss in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, a couple of the Yankees were crying, but some of the veterans spoke with a lot of perspective, about how great it had been to be part of that team, at that time, right after 9/11. Scott Brosius and Paul O'Neill, for example, knew it would be the last time they would play together.
But Derek Jeter's emotions seemed very different than anybody else's in that room. He was just angry. He was accustomed to winning and the Yankees had come within three outs of their fourth consecutive title, and he was just angry. He had played through a broken foot and other injuries and had come up big in a big moment in that game, as usual.
On Saturday, though, Jeter managed to surprise even himself, with his 5-for-5 performance on the day he collected a 3,000th hit -- a homer, of course -- and his performance was the talk of baseball.
Jeter has announced he will not be at the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but already there is an effort being made to get him to Arizona to be honored, to be celebrated. The educated guess here is that folks he respects will convince him. We'll see.
Saturday was a great day at Yankee Stadium, Tyler Kepner writes. It was the ultimate Jeterian feat, writes Wayne Coffey.
It was perfect for Jeter that this came in a win, writes Joel Sherman. This was a reminder of the past, writes Bob Klapisch.
Jeter added to his legacy, writes Mike Lupica.
The fan who caught the ball gave it to Jeter, Sam Borden writes.
From ESPN Stats & Info: The pitch that resulted in No. 3000 was a 78.3 mph curveball low in the zone (the 8 on your phone). In the past five seasons, Jeter had hit only one other home run on a curveball (that was April 30, 2010, off Freddy Garcia of the White Sox). The SIG Home Run Tracker put the distance of Jeter's home run at 420 feet, his longest homer since Aug. 24 of last year and his second-longest at the new Yankee Stadium. He hadn't gone deep in the Bronx since July 22 of last year (off the Royals' Bruce Chen).
The fans who got right-field seats at Yankee Stadium on Saturday expecting Jeter to continue his opposite-field trend had to be disappointed. Three of Jeter's five hits were pulled to left, and a fourth was dumped into center. That's more hits to left than he had in his previous 10 games combined.
In the past three seasons, he's had only one other game in which he's sent three base hits to left field (Aug. 4, 2010, versus Toronto).
[h4]Percent of Jeter's outfield hits to left field[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Percentage[/th][th=""]Home Runs[/th][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]32.7[/td][td]4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]27.6[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011*[/td][td]22.5[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Saturday[/td][td]60.0[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]* Entering Saturday[/td][/tr][/table]
• Ryan Dempster tore into his manager in the dugout. Not good. I wrote here a couple of weeks ago that Mike Quade has lost some players in his clubhouse, and the whole situation feels impossible: Quade is like a guy with a sandbag trying to hold back a flood because his team isn't very good and the veteran leadership is a problem. Some players feel that Quade has changed his approach with them since being shifted from a coach to the manager.
• About Francisco Rodriguez's contract option: The great concern among rival executives is that a what-if situation arises.
K-Rod has finished 34 games and needs 21 more -- or 20, depending on how the contract is interpreted, because of a stipulation about combined games finished from 2010-11 -- from having his $17.5 million option vest automatically. "What if you trade for him to be a setup man," a GM explained, "and your closer gets hurt?"
Then K-Rod's new manager would have a giant political mess, because naturally he'd want to use a guy with a decade of experience closing games -- but the front office wouldn't exactly be thrilled with the possibility of having the $17.5 million option kick in.
In a market that will be glutted with right-handed relievers, Rodriguez's contract option makes him a scary option.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Terry Collins spoke positively about the progress of David Wright, Ike Davis and Jose Reyes; it's possible that all three will be back playing within three weeks, depending on their progress.
2. J.J. Putz will be the D-backs' closer once he comes back from the disabled list, Diamondback manager Kirk Gibson said.
And while the Giants might appear to have a relatively easy schedule for the second half, they always seem to play 2-1 and 3-2 games regardless of which team is in the other dugout.
So the concept of strength of schedule has a lot of variables. The Reds are under .500, but they have the kind of talent that makes them very dangerous; they are capable of getting hot and ripping off 10 straight wins.
But schedules are something that the guys in the suits -- the general managers and assistant GMs -- will take a close look at as they decide whether and when to pull a trigger on moves. The Diamondbacks had easily the toughest schedule of all NL teams in the first quarter of this season, and after they weathered it with a record close to .500, the Arizona brain trust viewed its team as a possible contender. Now the Diamondbacks have what appears to be a stunningly favorable second-half schedule.
Arizona closes the year with a bounty of home games, and 40 percent -- 40 percent -- of its remaining games are against the Dodgers and Padres.
The Rays had a relatively easy schedule out of the gate, but it has gotten rougher of late, and their seas will only get higher in the second half.
Let's rank the second-half schedules for contenders among both leagues from toughest to easiest, with contender being defined as any team that was fewer than 10 games out of first place at the start of play on Saturday.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 36
Noteworthy: Tampa Bay has 26 games in the second half against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Big Finish: Thirteen of the Rays' final 19 games are against the Yankees and the Red Sox. Yeesh.
2. Seattle Mariners
Home/away: Thirty-three of their final 71 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 46
Noteworthy: In the last nine days before the trade deadline, the Mariners will run the gamut of AL East teams, with consecutive series against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.
Big Finish: Seven of the Mariners' final 10 games will be on the road.
3. Minnesota Twins
Home/away: Forty-two of their last 73 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 41
Noteworthy: Look again at the huge number of home games for the Twins in the second half -- the most of any contending team. But they have a rainout makeup at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 19 wedged into a long homestand that won't be easy.
Big Finish: The Twins' final three games are at home against the Royals.
4. Texas Rangers
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 35
Noteworthy: Texas still has seven games left with Boston and six with Tampa Bay; the Rangers are finished with the Yankees.
Big Finish: Nine of the Rangers' final 12 games will be on the road.
5. Chicago White Sox
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 37
Noteworthy: Chicago opens the second half with a nine-game road trip.
Big Finish: The White Sox close the season with a nice six-game homestand versus the Royals and the Jays.
6. Boston Red Sox
Home/away: 36 of 72
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 33
Noteworthy: Boston clubbed the Orioles before the All-Star break, and the Red Sox will get more chances to do that, with 10 games remaining against Baltimore.
Big Finish: The Red Sox close their season with six consecutive road games -- at New York and Baltimore.
7. New York Yankees
Home/away: 32 of 74
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: The Yankees have the fewest home games remaining among the contenders, and they still have one major West Coast trip remaining, with a swing through Anaheim and Seattle.
Big Finish: The last nine games for the Yankees will be an AL East-palooza -- six against the Rays and three against the Red Sox.
8. Los Angeles Angels
Home/away: 33 of 70
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Between now and the trade deadline, the Angels will live on the road -- 14 of 17 games. After that, it's relatively easy.
Big Finish: The Angels' final six games are at home -- versus Oakland, then versus Texas.
9. Cleveland Indians
Home/away: Thirty-six of their final 73 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 25
Noteworthy: The Indians have a total of four games left against the AL East trio of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay -- just one series at Fenway Aug. 1-4.
Big Finish: The Indians are in Detroit for the final three games of the season, and it could be for all the marbles.
10. Detroit Tigers
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 23
Noteworthy: The Tigers have 12 games remaining against Cleveland in the second half. Big Finish: Detroit closes out with seven consecutive home games.
Here are the rankings for the National League (to repeat, the rankings are from toughest remaining schedules to easiest):
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Phillies had one of the easiest schedules of the year at the outset of the season, but it'll be tougher in the second half -- and the Phillies might be better equipped with Chase Utley back.
Big Finish: The Phillies close out the season on the road -- at New York and at Atlanta. One final test.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 38
Noteworthy: The Cardinals' first nine games after the All-Star break are against decent teams, on the road -- at Cincinnati, at New York, at Pittsburgh.
Big Finish: If the Cardinals are close entering the last week, this could bode well -- their last six games are against the National League's worst teams, the Cubs and Astros.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Home/away: Thirty-six of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Pirates could tilt one way or the other by Aug. 14 because they have a lot of games against contenders between now and then -- including a seven-game road swing that will take them through Atlanta and Philadelphia leading up to the trade deadline.
Big Finish: Ten of the Pirates' final 13 games are on the road.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Home/away: Thirty-four of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Brewers open the second half with 11 consecutive road games -- through Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco.
Big Finish: The Brewers will close out the season with six home games against the Marlins and Pirates.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 35
Noteworthy: The Reds' first 16 games after the All-Star break are against teams with records over .500 -- a big mountain to climb right away.
Big Finish: The Reds' last six games will be on the road against the Pirates and Mets.
6. Colorado Rockies
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 32
Noteworthy: Starting near the end of August, the Rockies have a nine-game road swing against division rivals that could be pivotal for them.
Big Finish: The Rockies have seven games on the road in the last week, with four at Houston and three at San Francisco.
7. Atlanta Braves
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 29 Noteworthy: Twenty-five of the Braves' last 44 games are at home. Big Finish: The Braves host the Phillies for the final three games of the season, and the division title may be on the line.
8. San Francisco Giants
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Every game the Giants play in September will be within the Pacific time zone, which makes for pain-free travel.
Big Finish: The Giants have a 10-game road trip before they come home for the final three games against Colorado.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 25
Noteworthy: Whether the Diamondbacks continue to press the Giants will depend a lot on their play against the San Diego Padres and Dodgers -- they have 28 games against the Padres and Los Angeles.
Big Finish: The Diamondbacks end the season with nine consecutive home games.
• After the Yankees' wrenching loss in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, a couple of the Yankees were crying, but some of the veterans spoke with a lot of perspective, about how great it had been to be part of that team, at that time, right after 9/11. Scott Brosius and Paul O'Neill, for example, knew it would be the last time they would play together.
But Derek Jeter's emotions seemed very different than anybody else's in that room. He was just angry. He was accustomed to winning and the Yankees had come within three outs of their fourth consecutive title, and he was just angry. He had played through a broken foot and other injuries and had come up big in a big moment in that game, as usual.
On Saturday, though, Jeter managed to surprise even himself, with his 5-for-5 performance on the day he collected a 3,000th hit -- a homer, of course -- and his performance was the talk of baseball.
Jeter has announced he will not be at the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but already there is an effort being made to get him to Arizona to be honored, to be celebrated. The educated guess here is that folks he respects will convince him. We'll see.
Saturday was a great day at Yankee Stadium, Tyler Kepner writes. It was the ultimate Jeterian feat, writes Wayne Coffey.
It was perfect for Jeter that this came in a win, writes Joel Sherman. This was a reminder of the past, writes Bob Klapisch.
Jeter added to his legacy, writes Mike Lupica.
The fan who caught the ball gave it to Jeter, Sam Borden writes.
From ESPN Stats & Info: The pitch that resulted in No. 3000 was a 78.3 mph curveball low in the zone (the 8 on your phone). In the past five seasons, Jeter had hit only one other home run on a curveball (that was April 30, 2010, off Freddy Garcia of the White Sox). The SIG Home Run Tracker put the distance of Jeter's home run at 420 feet, his longest homer since Aug. 24 of last year and his second-longest at the new Yankee Stadium. He hadn't gone deep in the Bronx since July 22 of last year (off the Royals' Bruce Chen).
The fans who got right-field seats at Yankee Stadium on Saturday expecting Jeter to continue his opposite-field trend had to be disappointed. Three of Jeter's five hits were pulled to left, and a fourth was dumped into center. That's more hits to left than he had in his previous 10 games combined.
In the past three seasons, he's had only one other game in which he's sent three base hits to left field (Aug. 4, 2010, versus Toronto).
[h4]Percent of Jeter's outfield hits to left field[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Percentage[/th][th=""]Home Runs[/th][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]32.7[/td][td]4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]27.6[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011*[/td][td]22.5[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Saturday[/td][td]60.0[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]* Entering Saturday[/td][/tr][/table]
• Ryan Dempster tore into his manager in the dugout. Not good. I wrote here a couple of weeks ago that Mike Quade has lost some players in his clubhouse, and the whole situation feels impossible: Quade is like a guy with a sandbag trying to hold back a flood because his team isn't very good and the veteran leadership is a problem. Some players feel that Quade has changed his approach with them since being shifted from a coach to the manager.
• About Francisco Rodriguez's contract option: The great concern among rival executives is that a what-if situation arises.
K-Rod has finished 34 games and needs 21 more -- or 20, depending on how the contract is interpreted, because of a stipulation about combined games finished from 2010-11 -- from having his $17.5 million option vest automatically. "What if you trade for him to be a setup man," a GM explained, "and your closer gets hurt?"
Then K-Rod's new manager would have a giant political mess, because naturally he'd want to use a guy with a decade of experience closing games -- but the front office wouldn't exactly be thrilled with the possibility of having the $17.5 million option kick in.
In a market that will be glutted with right-handed relievers, Rodriguez's contract option makes him a scary option.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Terry Collins spoke positively about the progress of David Wright, Ike Davis and Jose Reyes; it's possible that all three will be back playing within three weeks, depending on their progress.
2. J.J. Putz will be the D-backs' closer once he comes back from the disabled list, Diamondback manager Kirk Gibson said.
Comparing Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
Spoiler [+]
The highlight of Sunday's Futures Game was supposed to be a United States team outfield that included Washington's Bryce Harper and the Angels' Mike Trout. The pair is easily the top two prospects in baseball, but the 1-2 order has been the cause of much debate during the first half of the season. While Trout's call-up to the big leagues takes a tiny bit of luster off of what will still be a star-studded game, there's still plenty of time to keep the debate raging. The fact Trout is suddenly an Angel instead of an Arkansas Traveler doesn't change the player, so here's how scouts and team executives broke down the two prior to the call-up.
Hitting: Both players have impressed scouts with their raw hitting ability, as Trout has a career minor league average of .338 while Harper was hitting .318 in Low-A as an 18-year-old and is 5-for-14 in his first four Double-A games. Harper's ability to hit for average is especially impressive considering his power-focused approach and downright violent swing, but one National League scout sees it as legitimate, saying, "He makes all the right adjustments, not just from at-bat to at-bat, but from pitch to pitch. He just has a fantastic approach." Still, Trout projects easily as a .300-plus hitter in the big leagues, while Harper is expected to be more of a .280-.300 hitter once he's a part of the middle of the Nationals' lineup. "Trout's certainly the better pure hitter," said an American League talent evaluator. "He makes more contact, has fewer holes than Harper and a much simpler swing."
Advantage: Trout
Power: This is where Harper really shines. "It's just rare to see a player like this," said an American League executive. "I can show you plenty of young players with extreme raw power, but his ability to utilize it in games right now is special." While scouts are generally reticent to use the top score of 80 on any player concerning any tool, it's nearly impossible to find a scout who doesn't use the number to project Harper's power, indicating a consistent 35-40-plus home run hitter in the big leagues. Still, Trout is no slouch in this department. With nine home runs in 75 Texas League games this year, he already was showing an improved home run rate, and with his size and strength, scouts project him to be an above-average power threat as his game matures. "It's part of his game people don't talk about, but should," added an American League scout. "He's never going to match Harper in this department, but he's going to hit 20 home runs a year in his prime, and that might be low."
Advantage: Harper
Speed: This contest is similar to power, in that while neither is slow, Trout's top-of-the-line wheels give him a major edge. Scouts consistently clock Trout with sub-4.0 second times from home to first and he's an effective base stealer, with 28 stolen bases in 36 attempts in the Texas League. The only question is how long he'll maintain that speed long-term. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Trout is built more like a defensive back than a classic speedster, leaving a National League scout to say, "It's just not what 80 runners look like, so I don't know if it will last forever." An American League scout was less concerned, saying, "It's not just speed, it's easy speed," and adding, "he'll steal 50 bases a year in the big leagues." Harper also surprises with average to slightly above speed, and already has 20 stolen bases this season. That said, few scouts think he'll maintain that speed into his prime. "I could see him stealing 15-20 bases when he gets to the big leagues," said an American League scouting executive, "but in the end, he's going to get bigger, slower and become more of a classic bat-first slugger."
Advantage: Trout
Field: A catcher in high school and his one junior college season, Harper has made a seamless transition to the outfield and projects as a solid right fielder. Unfortunately, that can't compare in value to a well above-average center fielder, and between his speed and instincts, Trout glides from gap to gap and covers plenty of ground. "We can talk all we want about the offensive potential of these two guys," said one American League executive, "but when one of them not only plays up the middle but plays the position extremely well, that's a huge difference in overall value."
Advantage: Trout
Throwing: Trout's throwing arm is his weakest tool, ranking merely as average. Harper's best defensive tool as a catcher was his plus-plus arm strength, and that's carried over to the outfield, where he's already registered eight outfield assists. He could potentially be a weapon in right field, but there are some concerns. "It's good, but I can't go further than plus because of his incredibly long release, which is an understated factor," said an American League scout.
Advantage: Harper
Makeup: This is the debate that could fill a book. Trout earns nonstop raves for his work ethic and high-energy style of play, while Harper's behavior has been well documented, including a recent incident in which he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher following a home run. "Harper plays hard, but he's a total 'me first' guy," said one American League scout. But an NL evaluator wasn't as concerned. "I've seen plenty of stars that are real jerks," he said, "and I think Harper plays with what I call a positive arrogance." The fact there is any concern for Harper's antics gives the edge to Trout, who gets as much praise for his approach to the game as he does for his obvious skills.
Advantage: Trout
The final call: Industry professionals are understandably split evenly between the two.
"He's somehow more than I expected," said a National League scout of Harper. "He's like a 12-year-old playing on a high school varsity team," he added. "I realize Trout is in the big leagues, but there are plenty of organizations where Harper would be, as well. He's phenomenal and has a Hall of Fame ceiling."
An American League scout disagreed, summarizing, "Trout is going to be a .300-plus hitter with a .380-plus on-base percentage and 20-25 home runs with 50-plus stolen bases. He's a gold-glove middle of the diamond defender with plus-plus makeup and energy. That is a special talent, there is nobody with that package."
An American League scouting executive agreed, saying, "Harper is going to produce more runs than Trout, and be an MVP-level hitter, but Trout is going to do what he does as a center fielder, and when you take that into account, he's far more valuable."
A National League front office member went in the opposite direction. "Harper is younger, and has a higher upside," he said. "The only thing Trout does better is speed and defense and Harper is more than playable in those departments. It's Harper, it's not as close as you think, and I love Trout."
The debate rages on, and due to the age of the two top prospects in baseball, the discussion has the potential to continue into the next decade.
Hitting: Both players have impressed scouts with their raw hitting ability, as Trout has a career minor league average of .338 while Harper was hitting .318 in Low-A as an 18-year-old and is 5-for-14 in his first four Double-A games. Harper's ability to hit for average is especially impressive considering his power-focused approach and downright violent swing, but one National League scout sees it as legitimate, saying, "He makes all the right adjustments, not just from at-bat to at-bat, but from pitch to pitch. He just has a fantastic approach." Still, Trout projects easily as a .300-plus hitter in the big leagues, while Harper is expected to be more of a .280-.300 hitter once he's a part of the middle of the Nationals' lineup. "Trout's certainly the better pure hitter," said an American League talent evaluator. "He makes more contact, has fewer holes than Harper and a much simpler swing."
Advantage: Trout
Power: This is where Harper really shines. "It's just rare to see a player like this," said an American League executive. "I can show you plenty of young players with extreme raw power, but his ability to utilize it in games right now is special." While scouts are generally reticent to use the top score of 80 on any player concerning any tool, it's nearly impossible to find a scout who doesn't use the number to project Harper's power, indicating a consistent 35-40-plus home run hitter in the big leagues. Still, Trout is no slouch in this department. With nine home runs in 75 Texas League games this year, he already was showing an improved home run rate, and with his size and strength, scouts project him to be an above-average power threat as his game matures. "It's part of his game people don't talk about, but should," added an American League scout. "He's never going to match Harper in this department, but he's going to hit 20 home runs a year in his prime, and that might be low."
Advantage: Harper
Speed: This contest is similar to power, in that while neither is slow, Trout's top-of-the-line wheels give him a major edge. Scouts consistently clock Trout with sub-4.0 second times from home to first and he's an effective base stealer, with 28 stolen bases in 36 attempts in the Texas League. The only question is how long he'll maintain that speed long-term. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Trout is built more like a defensive back than a classic speedster, leaving a National League scout to say, "It's just not what 80 runners look like, so I don't know if it will last forever." An American League scout was less concerned, saying, "It's not just speed, it's easy speed," and adding, "he'll steal 50 bases a year in the big leagues." Harper also surprises with average to slightly above speed, and already has 20 stolen bases this season. That said, few scouts think he'll maintain that speed into his prime. "I could see him stealing 15-20 bases when he gets to the big leagues," said an American League scouting executive, "but in the end, he's going to get bigger, slower and become more of a classic bat-first slugger."
Advantage: Trout
Field: A catcher in high school and his one junior college season, Harper has made a seamless transition to the outfield and projects as a solid right fielder. Unfortunately, that can't compare in value to a well above-average center fielder, and between his speed and instincts, Trout glides from gap to gap and covers plenty of ground. "We can talk all we want about the offensive potential of these two guys," said one American League executive, "but when one of them not only plays up the middle but plays the position extremely well, that's a huge difference in overall value."
Advantage: Trout
Throwing: Trout's throwing arm is his weakest tool, ranking merely as average. Harper's best defensive tool as a catcher was his plus-plus arm strength, and that's carried over to the outfield, where he's already registered eight outfield assists. He could potentially be a weapon in right field, but there are some concerns. "It's good, but I can't go further than plus because of his incredibly long release, which is an understated factor," said an American League scout.
Advantage: Harper
Makeup: This is the debate that could fill a book. Trout earns nonstop raves for his work ethic and high-energy style of play, while Harper's behavior has been well documented, including a recent incident in which he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher following a home run. "Harper plays hard, but he's a total 'me first' guy," said one American League scout. But an NL evaluator wasn't as concerned. "I've seen plenty of stars that are real jerks," he said, "and I think Harper plays with what I call a positive arrogance." The fact there is any concern for Harper's antics gives the edge to Trout, who gets as much praise for his approach to the game as he does for his obvious skills.
Advantage: Trout
The final call: Industry professionals are understandably split evenly between the two.
"He's somehow more than I expected," said a National League scout of Harper. "He's like a 12-year-old playing on a high school varsity team," he added. "I realize Trout is in the big leagues, but there are plenty of organizations where Harper would be, as well. He's phenomenal and has a Hall of Fame ceiling."
An American League scout disagreed, summarizing, "Trout is going to be a .300-plus hitter with a .380-plus on-base percentage and 20-25 home runs with 50-plus stolen bases. He's a gold-glove middle of the diamond defender with plus-plus makeup and energy. That is a special talent, there is nobody with that package."
An American League scouting executive agreed, saying, "Harper is going to produce more runs than Trout, and be an MVP-level hitter, but Trout is going to do what he does as a center fielder, and when you take that into account, he's far more valuable."
A National League front office member went in the opposite direction. "Harper is younger, and has a higher upside," he said. "The only thing Trout does better is speed and defense and Harper is more than playable in those departments. It's Harper, it's not as close as you think, and I love Trout."
The debate rages on, and due to the age of the two top prospects in baseball, the discussion has the potential to continue into the next decade.
Yea, they'll definitely get a lot closer to the 75% than they probably would have since they'll both get the "clean" vote.
I heard an interesting debate the other day about that was bound to come up with the comparison between Cal and Jeter. I still think he's below Cal on the all time list with SS's but I wouldn't say he's that far behind. I'd say he's a little above Larkin now though. Rings aside.
Anywho.
Matt Moore impressive in Futures Game.
Who's next to 3,000?
Defensive Trades.
Power arms on display at the Futures Game.
Toughest 2nd half schedules.
Comparing Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
I heard an interesting debate the other day about that was bound to come up with the comparison between Cal and Jeter. I still think he's below Cal on the all time list with SS's but I wouldn't say he's that far behind. I'd say he's a little above Larkin now though. Rings aside.
Anywho.
Matt Moore impressive in Futures Game.
Spoiler [+]
After watching http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays')">Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospect Matt Moore's clean one-inning, one-strikeout performance for Team USA in Sunday's Futures Game, I sent out the following tweet:
"My editor is going to have to keep me from writing 5000 words about Matt Moore - with a lot of exclamation points..."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesMatt Moore was throwing in the high 90s at the Futures Game, but when will he reach the majors?
This won't be 5,000 words, and I will do my best to keep the excess punctuation down, but the sentiment remains the same.
I mentioned in my video preview of the game that Moore was the arm I was most looking forward to seeing, as he's continued to be not just effective, but dominant, after moving to Double-A this season. He did not disappoint on Sunday, as he was the most impressive arm in the Futures Game. What does he think he's doing better this year?
"Focusing on one pitch at a time and get strike one over," Moore said before the game. "Good things happen when I do that."
The numbers show that Moore has led the minor leagues in strikeouts the last two seasons, and he hasn't missed a beat this year with 125 in 96 2/3 innings, including an 11-K no-hitter in mid-June. For his pro career, Moore has fanned more than 12 1/2 batters per nine innings with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including a rate approaching 5-to-1 this season. The 22-year-old southpaw is on pace to drop his walk rate substantially for the third season in a row (from 5.1 to 3.8 to 2.4 per nine) as he moves up the ladder. He is indeed getting strike one over more.
He's listed at 6-foot-2, but that's a little generous. Then again, it doesn't matter. He has a loose arm that was bringing fastballs in the 96-98 mph range in a short stint, with what scouts call "easy" velocity. In All-Star Games, where prospects only throw one inning, we often see the radar gun lit up a little higher because the pitchers don't have to hold anything back, but it was impressive nonetheless. The late life on his fastball, getting run on the arm side, just adds to its effectiveness.
The tilt on Moore's 86-88 mph slider makes it a nasty pitch, and though he didn't really get a chance to show it off in this game, the reports on Moore's circle change this year state that it is much improved as well. Moore's progression this year has not been just about strike one, but also about the development of his changeup to give him a legitimate third weapon. Despite striking out 208 batters last year, Moore said the organization told him he needed to go to his change more this season.
"I use [the change] as much or more than my breaking ball now," Moore said. "It went from being a pitch I threw 6 to 8 percent of the time to something I throw 15 to 20 percent of the time. It's become a real good pitch for me, and I've got a real good feel for it now. All I had to do was just start throwing it. The pitch was there, but it just wasn't polished up because I hadn't been throwing it."
One other thing I liked about Moore was that he was aggressive and worked quickly. I've heard from other scouts that the limited times he's gotten into trouble this season are sometimes caused by speeding up his delivery a little too much and getting on more of an east-west plane instead of staying on-line to the plate. Still, if that's what we're quibbling about, Moore is in good shape.
When will he see him in the majors? The Rays generally take a slower, more patient approach to promoting and developing their pitching prospects, and they have enough starting pitching depth and options that they don't need to rush Moore. If we see him this year, it may only be for a cameo. 2012 is when we can start looking for some potential impact, but regardless, Moore is a must-have in keeper and dynasty formats.
The bottom line: In the video preview, I said that Moore was "arguably" the best pitching prospect in the game. Despite getting just a limited look on Sunday, as far as I'm concerned there is no argument.
"My editor is going to have to keep me from writing 5000 words about Matt Moore - with a lot of exclamation points..."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesMatt Moore was throwing in the high 90s at the Futures Game, but when will he reach the majors?
This won't be 5,000 words, and I will do my best to keep the excess punctuation down, but the sentiment remains the same.
I mentioned in my video preview of the game that Moore was the arm I was most looking forward to seeing, as he's continued to be not just effective, but dominant, after moving to Double-A this season. He did not disappoint on Sunday, as he was the most impressive arm in the Futures Game. What does he think he's doing better this year?
"Focusing on one pitch at a time and get strike one over," Moore said before the game. "Good things happen when I do that."
The numbers show that Moore has led the minor leagues in strikeouts the last two seasons, and he hasn't missed a beat this year with 125 in 96 2/3 innings, including an 11-K no-hitter in mid-June. For his pro career, Moore has fanned more than 12 1/2 batters per nine innings with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including a rate approaching 5-to-1 this season. The 22-year-old southpaw is on pace to drop his walk rate substantially for the third season in a row (from 5.1 to 3.8 to 2.4 per nine) as he moves up the ladder. He is indeed getting strike one over more.
He's listed at 6-foot-2, but that's a little generous. Then again, it doesn't matter. He has a loose arm that was bringing fastballs in the 96-98 mph range in a short stint, with what scouts call "easy" velocity. In All-Star Games, where prospects only throw one inning, we often see the radar gun lit up a little higher because the pitchers don't have to hold anything back, but it was impressive nonetheless. The late life on his fastball, getting run on the arm side, just adds to its effectiveness.
The tilt on Moore's 86-88 mph slider makes it a nasty pitch, and though he didn't really get a chance to show it off in this game, the reports on Moore's circle change this year state that it is much improved as well. Moore's progression this year has not been just about strike one, but also about the development of his changeup to give him a legitimate third weapon. Despite striking out 208 batters last year, Moore said the organization told him he needed to go to his change more this season.
"I use [the change] as much or more than my breaking ball now," Moore said. "It went from being a pitch I threw 6 to 8 percent of the time to something I throw 15 to 20 percent of the time. It's become a real good pitch for me, and I've got a real good feel for it now. All I had to do was just start throwing it. The pitch was there, but it just wasn't polished up because I hadn't been throwing it."
One other thing I liked about Moore was that he was aggressive and worked quickly. I've heard from other scouts that the limited times he's gotten into trouble this season are sometimes caused by speeding up his delivery a little too much and getting on more of an east-west plane instead of staying on-line to the plate. Still, if that's what we're quibbling about, Moore is in good shape.
When will he see him in the majors? The Rays generally take a slower, more patient approach to promoting and developing their pitching prospects, and they have enough starting pitching depth and options that they don't need to rush Moore. If we see him this year, it may only be for a cameo. 2012 is when we can start looking for some potential impact, but regardless, Moore is a must-have in keeper and dynasty formats.
The bottom line: In the video preview, I said that Moore was "arguably" the best pitching prospect in the game. Despite getting just a limited look on Sunday, as far as I'm concerned there is no argument.
Who's next to 3,000?
Spoiler [+]
Well, Derek Jeter finally got his 3,000th hit. The last few turned out to be the most difficult, with a trip to the disabled list turning the last leg of Jeter's chase into a marathon.
While people confidently project the end of the 300-game winner, nobody thinks the 3,000-hit club is nearing extinction. So, who's next? The ZiPS projection system has eight players with at least a 1 percent chance and five with at least a 10 percent chance of collecting their 3,000th hit over the next eight years.
[h4]Jeter's shot at 4,000[/h4]
Now that Jeter has 3,000 hits, there aren't many clear milestones left. He already has the most hits as a shortstop and the most hits as a Yankee. Rickey Henderson's runs scored mark is too far away and A-Rod, younger by two years, is already ahead of him. And for greatest American League shortstop ever, he's either already passed Cal Ripken if you think Jeter's a decent defender, or hopelessly behind Ripken if you think he isn't (I'll avoid this sticky wicket for the time being). On a personal level, Jeter's best shot at a future individual milestone are the 4,000-hit mark and Pete Rose's 4,256.
Throughout most of his career, Jeter's been one of the very few hitters with a chance to get to 4,000. A very small one, no doubt, but even having a greater-than-zero chance of pulling it off is a pretty rare feat. Jeter's shot at 4,000 has evaporated in the past year and a half. It's hard to remember while watching Jeter this year, but he was an MVP candidate just two years ago with an excellent health record. He still has a shot, as there's certainly at least some chance at a late-career surge, though it's hard to see that right now. The ZiPS projection system estimates the odds at about 340-to-1, down from about 30-1 after 2009. So even now, Jeter reaching 4,000 hits wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world to happen.
Getting to 4,000 is unlikely for everyone. Even for Ty Cobb and Rose, their shots at 4,000 were fairly long until late in their careers due to unknowns such as health. As a result, 4,256 hits is probably insurmountable for Jeter. Any scenario that gets Jeter to 4,000 involves him bouncing back, staying healthy and playing well into his 40s and limping across the finish line. That means that 4,256, for Jeter at least, now appears to be the equivalent of the 3-minute mile.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguezAlex Rodriguez has 2,762 hits and is a near-lock to get to 3,000. ZiPS sees him having a 98 percent chance, and it's likely he'll get to 3,000 in 2013. And while it seems strange that we've come to this point, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damonJohnny Damon (78 percent, 2013) is also on a strong approach path. After Damon, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jonesChipper Jones has a slight chance (6 percent), but I'll easily take the under on that considering Chipper threatens retirement every offseason and probably doesn't have the inclination to stretch his career that long. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3576/vladimir-guerreroVladimir Guerrero (38 percent, 2016) and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4570/ichiro-suzukiIchiro Suzuki (36 percent, 2016) are two more players who have seen their chances decline thanks to poor seasons. And when you're in your mid-to-late 30s, a poor season or two is hard to make up when you're racing against father time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3441/edgar-renteriaEdgar Renteria still technically has a 1 percent shot, as his age (he's still just 34) and hit total (2,281) are promising, but he's playing too poorly nowadays to get enough at-bats to make a serious run. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3878/adrian-beltreAdrian Beltre started young enough to give him a chance (7 percent, 201 and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujolsAlbert Pujols is still in a great position to get his last thousand hits (75 percent, 201.
A few players near 3,000 have simply run out of time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2523/ivan-rodriguezIvan Rodriguez and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2149/omar-vizquelOmar Vizquel are within 200 knocks, but they both look like they'll fall short. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2974/manny-ramirezManny Ramirez retired after his failed drug test, leaving him within 500 forever, and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3727/miguel-tejadaMiguel Tejada may be done after a terrible 2011.
Further off, there are a lot of possibilities. A lot can happen over 10-15 years, so nobody in their 20s is a slam dunk, no matter how good they are, but several players have established chances. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5544/miguel-cabreraMiguel Cabrera got an early start and is playing at an MVP level and at a projected 3,035 hits (48 percent chance), has the best established chance of the younger players. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5035/carl-crawfordCarl Crawford isn't having a pretty season, but he also has the most hits of anyone in their 20s. ZiPS has him finishing at 2,762, with a 28 percent chance. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5411/jose-reyesJose Reyes comes in at 2,680, with a 24 percent chance of reaching the milestone. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6204/robinson-canoRobinson Cano is projected to finish with 2,815 hits, which is a 32 percent shot. Unless http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez has really forgotten how to hit, his projection of 2,880 hits and a 24 percent chance make him a contender.
If we go even younger, it becomes increasingly speculative, but that doesn't mean there aren't some early candidates for 3,000 hits. It may seem silly to talk about http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30450/starlin-castroStarlin Castro, but he's very young, with 250 hits and a career .303 batting average at the age of 21. He's projected at 2,501 hits and a 17 percent chance, but this could either increase or decrease rapidly based on how he develops. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton's not a great hitter for average, but 500 hits before your 24th birthday is a nice cushion -- ZiPS projects him at 2,690 with a 21 percent chance at 3,000.
While the 3,000-hit mark is likely to be passed repeatedly, it still remains an impressive achievement for the length of time and excellence it requires to surpass. Even the least impressive members of the club, Lou Brock and possibly Johnny Damon, were really good ballplayers for a long time.
A lot has been said over the past year about Jeter's steep decline, and rightfully so, but for at least one game this season, it's nice to take a break from watching Jeter's decline to celebrate the player he was.
While people confidently project the end of the 300-game winner, nobody thinks the 3,000-hit club is nearing extinction. So, who's next? The ZiPS projection system has eight players with at least a 1 percent chance and five with at least a 10 percent chance of collecting their 3,000th hit over the next eight years.
[h4]Jeter's shot at 4,000[/h4]
Throughout most of his career, Jeter's been one of the very few hitters with a chance to get to 4,000. A very small one, no doubt, but even having a greater-than-zero chance of pulling it off is a pretty rare feat. Jeter's shot at 4,000 has evaporated in the past year and a half. It's hard to remember while watching Jeter this year, but he was an MVP candidate just two years ago with an excellent health record. He still has a shot, as there's certainly at least some chance at a late-career surge, though it's hard to see that right now. The ZiPS projection system estimates the odds at about 340-to-1, down from about 30-1 after 2009. So even now, Jeter reaching 4,000 hits wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world to happen.
Getting to 4,000 is unlikely for everyone. Even for Ty Cobb and Rose, their shots at 4,000 were fairly long until late in their careers due to unknowns such as health. As a result, 4,256 hits is probably insurmountable for Jeter. Any scenario that gets Jeter to 4,000 involves him bouncing back, staying healthy and playing well into his 40s and limping across the finish line. That means that 4,256, for Jeter at least, now appears to be the equivalent of the 3-minute mile.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguezAlex Rodriguez has 2,762 hits and is a near-lock to get to 3,000. ZiPS sees him having a 98 percent chance, and it's likely he'll get to 3,000 in 2013. And while it seems strange that we've come to this point, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damonJohnny Damon (78 percent, 2013) is also on a strong approach path. After Damon, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jonesChipper Jones has a slight chance (6 percent), but I'll easily take the under on that considering Chipper threatens retirement every offseason and probably doesn't have the inclination to stretch his career that long. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3576/vladimir-guerreroVladimir Guerrero (38 percent, 2016) and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4570/ichiro-suzukiIchiro Suzuki (36 percent, 2016) are two more players who have seen their chances decline thanks to poor seasons. And when you're in your mid-to-late 30s, a poor season or two is hard to make up when you're racing against father time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3441/edgar-renteriaEdgar Renteria still technically has a 1 percent shot, as his age (he's still just 34) and hit total (2,281) are promising, but he's playing too poorly nowadays to get enough at-bats to make a serious run. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3878/adrian-beltreAdrian Beltre started young enough to give him a chance (7 percent, 201
and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujolsAlbert Pujols is still in a great position to get his last thousand hits (75 percent, 201.A few players near 3,000 have simply run out of time. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2523/ivan-rodriguezIvan Rodriguez and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2149/omar-vizquelOmar Vizquel are within 200 knocks, but they both look like they'll fall short. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2974/manny-ramirezManny Ramirez retired after his failed drug test, leaving him within 500 forever, and http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3727/miguel-tejadaMiguel Tejada may be done after a terrible 2011.
Further off, there are a lot of possibilities. A lot can happen over 10-15 years, so nobody in their 20s is a slam dunk, no matter how good they are, but several players have established chances. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5544/miguel-cabreraMiguel Cabrera got an early start and is playing at an MVP level and at a projected 3,035 hits (48 percent chance), has the best established chance of the younger players. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5035/carl-crawfordCarl Crawford isn't having a pretty season, but he also has the most hits of anyone in their 20s. ZiPS has him finishing at 2,762, with a 28 percent chance. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5411/jose-reyesJose Reyes comes in at 2,680, with a 24 percent chance of reaching the milestone. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6204/robinson-canoRobinson Cano is projected to finish with 2,815 hits, which is a 32 percent shot. Unless http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6195/hanley-ramirezHanley Ramirez has really forgotten how to hit, his projection of 2,880 hits and a 24 percent chance make him a contender.
If we go even younger, it becomes increasingly speculative, but that doesn't mean there aren't some early candidates for 3,000 hits. It may seem silly to talk about http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30450/starlin-castroStarlin Castro, but he's very young, with 250 hits and a career .303 batting average at the age of 21. He's projected at 2,501 hits and a 17 percent chance, but this could either increase or decrease rapidly based on how he develops. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28841/justin-uptonJustin Upton's not a great hitter for average, but 500 hits before your 24th birthday is a nice cushion -- ZiPS projects him at 2,690 with a 21 percent chance at 3,000.
While the 3,000-hit mark is likely to be passed repeatedly, it still remains an impressive achievement for the length of time and excellence it requires to surpass. Even the least impressive members of the club, Lou Brock and possibly Johnny Damon, were really good ballplayers for a long time.
A lot has been said over the past year about Jeter's steep decline, and rightfully so, but for at least one game this season, it's nice to take a break from watching Jeter's decline to celebrate the player he was.
Defensive Trades.
Spoiler [+]
With over half of MLB's 30 teams within five games of their division lead, the demand for impact hitters and starting pitchers far exceeds the supply. As economists would explain, we can expect prices to skyrocket in these situations as sellers look to auction their top players to the highest bidder.
As a result, teams looking to bolster their lineups for the pennant race might be better off targeting certain players whose defensive play can have the same impact as a slugger or ace pitcher. Fortunately, defensive talent is more affordable than comparable upgrades.
The Colorado Rockies have gotten a jump on the market, acquiring defensive stalwart Mark Ellis from the A's for a fringe prospect and the infamous Player To Be Named Later, shoring up second base, their weakest defensive position (an estimated -12 Runs Saved this year). While Ellis is no longer at his defensive peak (24 Runs Saved and a second-place finish in Fielding Bible Award voting in 200, if he simply plays average defense in the second half he's a 10-run improvement the rest of the season, which translates to roughly one win in the standings. Since the trade, the thin Colorado air has also rejuvenated Ellis' bat, certainly an unexpected bonus for the Rockies.
Which other teams could benefit the most from defensive upgrades at certain positions?
[h3]Philadelphia Phillies -- Left Field (-11 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Phillies fans have been quick to call for an upgrade over rookie rightfielder Domonic Brown after a slow start at the plate; many conclude from the bumpy beginning to his MLB career that his minor league development was unnecessarily rushed (though he spent a similar amount of time in the upper levels of the minors as Evan Longoria, and with equal or better production). However, leftfielder Raul Ibanez has been a bigger detriment, struggling just as much at the plate and even worse in the field.
The Phillies could use a right-handed or switch-hitting corner outfielder who improves the team defensively, and they might not have to leave the division to find one. Switch-hitting Carlos Beltran has excelled in the move from centerfield to right (10 Runs Saved so far this year) and has rebounded nicely at the plate. Further, Beltran's contract stipulates that he cannot be offered arbitration when he hits free agency this offseason, so the Mets don't have to worry about Beltran sticking around past 2011 and coming back to haunt them. Though inter-divisional trades are rare, this one might actually make sense for both sides.
[h3]Detroit Tigers -- Entire Infield (-29 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Formerly an elite defensive third baseman, Brandon Inge is struggling on both sides of the ball this year. Jhonny Peralta is having a great bounce-back season at the plate but is a little out of his element at shortstop (-8 Runs Saved). At second base, the combination of Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn is also having a hard time on both offense and defense.
The Tigers would benefit from a good defensive shortstop, allowing Peralta to shift to second or third. The team would get a reasonable boost in the field, but Jim Leyland's lineup would also benefit by mixing and matching Inge and Santiago as potential platoon players. Jack Wilson and J.J. Hardy should be considered here, if the latter doesn't sign an extension with Baltimore first.
[h3]St. Louis Cardinals -- Shortstop (-16 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Last offseason, the Cardinals were convinced that Brendan Ryan needed to be replaced by a stronger offensive player, so they signed another "Ryan," Ryan Theriot, and traded Brendan to Seattle for fringe prospect Maikel Cleto.
The Cardinals were correct about Brendan's offense: he hit .223 with non-existent power last season, while Theriot hit .270 with a comparable lack of power. Translating their production into runs, Brendan created 35 runs at the plate in 2010 according to Bill James' Runs Created, while Theriot totaled 57. If the Cardinals expected both to produce at similar levels this year, 22-run offensive upgrade is certainly substantial.
However, Brendan's defensive value more than compensates for the offensive difference. Brendan saved an estimated 27 runs with his glove last year, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Runs Saved metric; Theriot finished with -5 Runs Saved last year. Quite simply, the Cardinals' new shortstop doesn't produce as many groundouts as the old one, amounting to a 32-run defensive gap last year. Despite Brendan's abysmal bat, his glove made him a more valuable player.
The trend has continued in 2011. Brendan Ryan has been more valuable at the plate (27 Runs Created to Theriot's 35), but far more valuable in the field (7 Runs Saved to Theriot's -15). To top it off, Brendan's salary ($1 million) is a fraction of his replacement's ($3.3 million).
The Cardinals' staff is also the second-heaviest groundball unit in the league, so a strong defensive shortstop would be especially valuable. Leading ground ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook both have higher ERAs than their peripheral numbers indicate, according to the statistic FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). If St. Louis doesn't want to take another look at Brendan Ryan, perhaps Jack Wilson, J.J. Hardy, or Clint Barmes will do the trick? Even if manager Tony LaRussa wants to keep playing Theriot regularly, the Cardinals would benefit from a defensive platoon where a defensive-minded shortstop makes the start when Garcia or Westbrook is on the mound.
[h3]Pittsburgh Pirates -- First Base (-8 Runs Saved), Second Base (-7 Runs Saved)[/h3]
If the Pirates see themselves as contenders (and why shouldn't they?), they'll need a few upgrades without mortgaging their future. As mentioned above, impact starting pitchers or hitters are likely going to cost multiple prospects, so the Pirates would be wise to consider cheap defensive upgrades.
Additionally, low-cost free agent acquisition Lyle Overbay has been a disappointment at the plate and in the field. Neil Walker is also not a good defensive infielder, with -9 Runs Saved last year and -5 this year.
The Pirates will be getting a bat with impact potential with Pedro Alvarez coming off the disabled list. However, Alvarez is a poor defensive third baseman according to scouting reports, and the numbers agree: in 1,100 MLB innings, Alvarez has cost Pittsburgh an estimated 16 runs in the field.
Alvarez might provide a boost to the lineup, but his glove could sink the team's infield defense. With Overbay struggling on both sides of the ball, perhaps the Pirates should cut ties with Overbay, move Alvarez to first and pick up a cheap defensive-minded infielder to play third base. The new alignment would be stronger defensively, and the third baseman couldn't be much worse than Overbay at the plate. Seattle's Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson have been pushed aside by the promotions of Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, so both veteran infielders might be available even if the Mariners still hope to contend.
[h3]Cleveland Indians -- Second Base (-7 Runs Saved)[/h3]
The Indians' infield has struggled defensively this season, despite a triple play the first weekend of the year and Asbrubal Cabrera's multiple Web Gems. The fact is that Matt LaPorta (-8 Runs Saved), Orlando Cabrera (-7 Runs Saved across three positions), and Asdrubal (-5 Runs Saved) don't reach as many ground balls as they should, especially behind a pitching staff reliant on so many grounders.
Time will tell how rookie Lonnie Chisenhall will fare at the hot corner, but it might be time to look for alternatives to Orlando Cabrera at second base. Any of the previously mentioned infielders could be considered, including Adam Kennedy and Clint Barmes.
Additionally, a recent injury to star rightfielder Shin-Soo Choo has the team searching for a replacement for Choo's potent bat and strong arm from right field. Carlos Beltran would provide both, as would Jeff Francoeur to a lesser extent.
[h3]Atlanta Braves -- Center Field (-3 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Rumors have the Braves inquiring about outfield bats, and neither Nate McLouth nor Jordan Schafer has hit well enough to stay in the lineup. While McLouth has historically rated terribly in centerfield (-38 Runs Saved over six seasons, including -5 this year), at least Schafer has rates around average.
If the search for an outfield bat comes up empty, perhaps a defensive upgrade would be in order. Mike Cameron (1 Run Saved in 2011) was just cut in Boston and Carlos Gomez (16 Runs Saved) is having trouble getting into the lineup regularly in Milwaukee, while Denard Span (9 Runs Saved) and Peter Bourjos (19 Runs Saved) have prospects sneaking up behind them and may become expendable in the near future. The A's might also consider trading Coco Crisp (8 Runs Saved).
[h3]Milwaukee Brewers -- Third Base (-6 Runs Saved) and Shortstop (-10 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Casey McGehee rated poorly at third base last season (-8 Runs Saved), and he rates poorly again this season (-7 Runs Saved); the only difference is that McGehee stopped hitting this year, too. Yuniesky Betancourt has rated as one of the worst shortstops for several consecutive seasons; the only difference this year is that Yuni has shown that he can't hit National League pitching, either. Ron Reinecke's aggressive shifting philosophy hasn't changed the fact that neither is a good defensive infielder.
Milwaukee is clearly going for broke this season before Prince Fielder hits free agency, and if they want to make their best run in a competitive division they should consider defensive upgrades on the left side of the infield. The team may hold out hope for McGehee's bat to come around, but Betancourt has been consistently ineffective on both sides of the ball. Any of the aforementioned shortstops would be an improvement, as would Jayson Nix and Jack Hannahan, whose current jobs are in jeopardy by prospects Brett Lawrie and Lonnie Chisenhall, respectively.
As a result, teams looking to bolster their lineups for the pennant race might be better off targeting certain players whose defensive play can have the same impact as a slugger or ace pitcher. Fortunately, defensive talent is more affordable than comparable upgrades.
The Colorado Rockies have gotten a jump on the market, acquiring defensive stalwart Mark Ellis from the A's for a fringe prospect and the infamous Player To Be Named Later, shoring up second base, their weakest defensive position (an estimated -12 Runs Saved this year). While Ellis is no longer at his defensive peak (24 Runs Saved and a second-place finish in Fielding Bible Award voting in 200
, if he simply plays average defense in the second half he's a 10-run improvement the rest of the season, which translates to roughly one win in the standings. Since the trade, the thin Colorado air has also rejuvenated Ellis' bat, certainly an unexpected bonus for the Rockies.Which other teams could benefit the most from defensive upgrades at certain positions?
[h3]Philadelphia Phillies -- Left Field (-11 Runs Saved)[/h3]
Phillies fans have been quick to call for an upgrade over rookie rightfielder Domonic Brown after a slow start at the plate; many conclude from the bumpy beginning to his MLB career that his minor league development was unnecessarily rushed (though he spent a similar amount of time in the upper levels of the minors as Evan Longoria, and with equal or better production). However, leftfielder Raul Ibanez has been a bigger detriment, struggling just as much at the plate and even worse in the field.
The Phillies could use a right-handed or switch-hitting corner outfielder who improves the team defensively, and they might not have to leave the division to find one. Switch-hitting Carlos Beltran has excelled in the move from centerfield to right (10 Runs Saved so far this year) and has rebounded nicely at the plate. Further, Beltran's contract stipulates that he cannot be offered arbitration when he hits free agency this offseason, so the Mets don't have to worry about Beltran sticking around past 2011 and coming back to haunt them. Though inter-divisional trades are rare, this one might actually make sense for both sides.
Formerly an elite defensive third baseman, Brandon Inge is struggling on both sides of the ball this year. Jhonny Peralta is having a great bounce-back season at the plate but is a little out of his element at shortstop (-8 Runs Saved). At second base, the combination of Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn is also having a hard time on both offense and defense.
The Tigers would benefit from a good defensive shortstop, allowing Peralta to shift to second or third. The team would get a reasonable boost in the field, but Jim Leyland's lineup would also benefit by mixing and matching Inge and Santiago as potential platoon players. Jack Wilson and J.J. Hardy should be considered here, if the latter doesn't sign an extension with Baltimore first.
Last offseason, the Cardinals were convinced that Brendan Ryan needed to be replaced by a stronger offensive player, so they signed another "Ryan," Ryan Theriot, and traded Brendan to Seattle for fringe prospect Maikel Cleto.
The Cardinals were correct about Brendan's offense: he hit .223 with non-existent power last season, while Theriot hit .270 with a comparable lack of power. Translating their production into runs, Brendan created 35 runs at the plate in 2010 according to Bill James' Runs Created, while Theriot totaled 57. If the Cardinals expected both to produce at similar levels this year, 22-run offensive upgrade is certainly substantial.
However, Brendan's defensive value more than compensates for the offensive difference. Brendan saved an estimated 27 runs with his glove last year, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Runs Saved metric; Theriot finished with -5 Runs Saved last year. Quite simply, the Cardinals' new shortstop doesn't produce as many groundouts as the old one, amounting to a 32-run defensive gap last year. Despite Brendan's abysmal bat, his glove made him a more valuable player.
The trend has continued in 2011. Brendan Ryan has been more valuable at the plate (27 Runs Created to Theriot's 35), but far more valuable in the field (7 Runs Saved to Theriot's -15). To top it off, Brendan's salary ($1 million) is a fraction of his replacement's ($3.3 million).
The Cardinals' staff is also the second-heaviest groundball unit in the league, so a strong defensive shortstop would be especially valuable. Leading ground ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook both have higher ERAs than their peripheral numbers indicate, according to the statistic FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). If St. Louis doesn't want to take another look at Brendan Ryan, perhaps Jack Wilson, J.J. Hardy, or Clint Barmes will do the trick? Even if manager Tony LaRussa wants to keep playing Theriot regularly, the Cardinals would benefit from a defensive platoon where a defensive-minded shortstop makes the start when Garcia or Westbrook is on the mound.
If the Pirates see themselves as contenders (and why shouldn't they?), they'll need a few upgrades without mortgaging their future. As mentioned above, impact starting pitchers or hitters are likely going to cost multiple prospects, so the Pirates would be wise to consider cheap defensive upgrades.
Additionally, low-cost free agent acquisition Lyle Overbay has been a disappointment at the plate and in the field. Neil Walker is also not a good defensive infielder, with -9 Runs Saved last year and -5 this year.
The Pirates will be getting a bat with impact potential with Pedro Alvarez coming off the disabled list. However, Alvarez is a poor defensive third baseman according to scouting reports, and the numbers agree: in 1,100 MLB innings, Alvarez has cost Pittsburgh an estimated 16 runs in the field.
Alvarez might provide a boost to the lineup, but his glove could sink the team's infield defense. With Overbay struggling on both sides of the ball, perhaps the Pirates should cut ties with Overbay, move Alvarez to first and pick up a cheap defensive-minded infielder to play third base. The new alignment would be stronger defensively, and the third baseman couldn't be much worse than Overbay at the plate. Seattle's Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson have been pushed aside by the promotions of Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, so both veteran infielders might be available even if the Mariners still hope to contend.
The Indians' infield has struggled defensively this season, despite a triple play the first weekend of the year and Asbrubal Cabrera's multiple Web Gems. The fact is that Matt LaPorta (-8 Runs Saved), Orlando Cabrera (-7 Runs Saved across three positions), and Asdrubal (-5 Runs Saved) don't reach as many ground balls as they should, especially behind a pitching staff reliant on so many grounders.
Time will tell how rookie Lonnie Chisenhall will fare at the hot corner, but it might be time to look for alternatives to Orlando Cabrera at second base. Any of the previously mentioned infielders could be considered, including Adam Kennedy and Clint Barmes.
Additionally, a recent injury to star rightfielder Shin-Soo Choo has the team searching for a replacement for Choo's potent bat and strong arm from right field. Carlos Beltran would provide both, as would Jeff Francoeur to a lesser extent.
Rumors have the Braves inquiring about outfield bats, and neither Nate McLouth nor Jordan Schafer has hit well enough to stay in the lineup. While McLouth has historically rated terribly in centerfield (-38 Runs Saved over six seasons, including -5 this year), at least Schafer has rates around average.
If the search for an outfield bat comes up empty, perhaps a defensive upgrade would be in order. Mike Cameron (1 Run Saved in 2011) was just cut in Boston and Carlos Gomez (16 Runs Saved) is having trouble getting into the lineup regularly in Milwaukee, while Denard Span (9 Runs Saved) and Peter Bourjos (19 Runs Saved) have prospects sneaking up behind them and may become expendable in the near future. The A's might also consider trading Coco Crisp (8 Runs Saved).
Casey McGehee rated poorly at third base last season (-8 Runs Saved), and he rates poorly again this season (-7 Runs Saved); the only difference is that McGehee stopped hitting this year, too. Yuniesky Betancourt has rated as one of the worst shortstops for several consecutive seasons; the only difference this year is that Yuni has shown that he can't hit National League pitching, either. Ron Reinecke's aggressive shifting philosophy hasn't changed the fact that neither is a good defensive infielder.
Milwaukee is clearly going for broke this season before Prince Fielder hits free agency, and if they want to make their best run in a competitive division they should consider defensive upgrades on the left side of the infield. The team may hold out hope for McGehee's bat to come around, but Betancourt has been consistently ineffective on both sides of the ball. Any of the aforementioned shortstops would be an improvement, as would Jayson Nix and Jack Hannahan, whose current jobs are in jeopardy by prospects Brett Lawrie and Lonnie Chisenhall, respectively.
Power arms on display at the Futures Game.
Spoiler [+]
Power arms were the order of the day at this year's Futures Game, as expected, with at least nine pitchers touching 96 mph or better and two guys running it up to 98 on Sunday. A number of those pitchers project as No. 1 starters when you consider their repertoires and deliveries.
Most impressive in that group were left-hander Matt Moore (Tampa Bay) and right-hander Carlos Martinez (St. Louis). Moore was 94-98 with a very sharp slider at 86-87 with late, hard tilt and a solid-average changeup at 86, and he showed a loose arm and an easy delivery that he repeated well over the course of his inning. Martinez was just as easy and loose, working at 96-98 but having his fastball play up because it got in on hitters so quickly. He threw a hard slurve at 80-82 with very sharp two-plane break -- it's a curveball but has more tilt than most curves do as he gets a little on the side of it, but the result is just an evil pitch. He could turn over a changeup as well. Martinez didn't command the ball as well as Moore did but was just as aggressive.
Two other NL East right-handers stood out with big fastballs and sharp curveballs. Jarred Cosart of the Phillies was 96-97 with a mid-70s curveball that had some angle but seemed to break sharply away from right-handers at the last second. However, he does cut himself off a little in his delivery, causing him to come across his body. That's not good for a guy who's already missed some time with arm soreness. Arodys Vizcaino of Atlanta was also 96-97 with some life up in the zone and a hard 82-83 mph curveball that had two-plane action and great depth. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but didn't seem to get much extension out front. Both are potential No. 1 starters if they stay healthy, as Vizcaino missed a chunk of 2010 with a partial tear in his elbow ligament.
I'll have more on other Futures Game pitchers later, but here are some quick thoughts on hitters who stood out one way or another:
• Jose Altuve (Houston) is tiny -- apparently only about 5-foot-5½ if you ask him -- and recent history is very much against him on that count. It does look like these insanely high batting averages he's posting aren't a fluke, though. He does wrap his bat slightly with his hands high and deep, but after that he does just about everything right, with plenty of hand strength to whip the bat around into the zone and very good rotation from top to bottom to drive the ball. He's not a burner and looks like he'll have only doubles power, but if you hit in the low-.300s with a handful of walks and solid defense at second base, you're at least an everyday player -- and probably a fan favorite.
• Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore) was the most impressive hitter overall, especially in batting practice. He gets great extension through the zone and controls the bat head well, with good balance overall and solid hip rotation for power. He's not a great runner and is in search of a position; he was a shortstop but wasn't going to stay there, and so far this year he's spent time at second and third, mostly second, where he appeared briefly Sunday. His bat profiles at either spot, and he does have the arm for third.
• Diamondbacks prospect Paul Goldschmidt earned plenty of cheers despite an 0-for-4 day with a punchout. He sets up like Jeff Bagwell with a very wide base and virtually no stride, just a stutter-step as a trigger that doesn't start his weight transfer. He generates power from his lower and upper halves, although he doesn't load his hips at all, but once he starts his swing he rotates his torso and hips in sync and shows easy pull power. If you're looking for the glass-half-empty forecast, he's a first baseman only who doesn't have great bat speed, just a good eye and that big power, and first base is a tough place to profile offensively.
• The feel-good story of the day was Tim Beckham (Tampa Bay) smoking a double off Kelvin Herrera during the U.S. team's eighth-inning rally, turning on a 92 mph fastball and showing that he still can run a little even though he's gotten bigger since high school. Beckham's defense reportedly has improved substantially this season, and he was having a great season at the plate until about four weeks ago, when a five-game hitless streak shaved 50 points off his season OPS, but the offensive standard at short is so low that he can still profile as a regular there. And with fellow prospect Hak-Ju Lee showing good instincts at short, good running speed and a quick bat, the Rays seem to have a surplus at the position.
• It wasn't the greatest day for Bryce Harper, who struck out twice in an 0-for-4 day, but he did show off his arm with a throw from the left-field corner that looked like it was shot from a bazooka. He struck out on some pretty tough pitches, but more importantly, the game made clear what he has to work on -- recognizing quality off-speed stuff, especially changeups, because pitchers will change speeds on him all day until he shows he can make that adjustment. I know Nationals fans can't wait to see Harper in Washington, but bringing him up this season (which the team has said it won't do) wouldn't do him any favors. He'll be a superstar on his timetable.
Later, I'll go into several other players, including the game's MVP, Grant Green, and its youngest prospect, Jurickson Profar, as well as several of the pitchers I didn't mention in this story.
Most impressive in that group were left-hander Matt Moore (Tampa Bay) and right-hander Carlos Martinez (St. Louis). Moore was 94-98 with a very sharp slider at 86-87 with late, hard tilt and a solid-average changeup at 86, and he showed a loose arm and an easy delivery that he repeated well over the course of his inning. Martinez was just as easy and loose, working at 96-98 but having his fastball play up because it got in on hitters so quickly. He threw a hard slurve at 80-82 with very sharp two-plane break -- it's a curveball but has more tilt than most curves do as he gets a little on the side of it, but the result is just an evil pitch. He could turn over a changeup as well. Martinez didn't command the ball as well as Moore did but was just as aggressive.
Two other NL East right-handers stood out with big fastballs and sharp curveballs. Jarred Cosart of the Phillies was 96-97 with a mid-70s curveball that had some angle but seemed to break sharply away from right-handers at the last second. However, he does cut himself off a little in his delivery, causing him to come across his body. That's not good for a guy who's already missed some time with arm soreness. Arodys Vizcaino of Atlanta was also 96-97 with some life up in the zone and a hard 82-83 mph curveball that had two-plane action and great depth. He accelerates his arm very quickly and gets on top of the ball well but didn't seem to get much extension out front. Both are potential No. 1 starters if they stay healthy, as Vizcaino missed a chunk of 2010 with a partial tear in his elbow ligament.
I'll have more on other Futures Game pitchers later, but here are some quick thoughts on hitters who stood out one way or another:
• Jose Altuve (Houston) is tiny -- apparently only about 5-foot-5½ if you ask him -- and recent history is very much against him on that count. It does look like these insanely high batting averages he's posting aren't a fluke, though. He does wrap his bat slightly with his hands high and deep, but after that he does just about everything right, with plenty of hand strength to whip the bat around into the zone and very good rotation from top to bottom to drive the ball. He's not a burner and looks like he'll have only doubles power, but if you hit in the low-.300s with a handful of walks and solid defense at second base, you're at least an everyday player -- and probably a fan favorite.
• Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore) was the most impressive hitter overall, especially in batting practice. He gets great extension through the zone and controls the bat head well, with good balance overall and solid hip rotation for power. He's not a great runner and is in search of a position; he was a shortstop but wasn't going to stay there, and so far this year he's spent time at second and third, mostly second, where he appeared briefly Sunday. His bat profiles at either spot, and he does have the arm for third.
• Diamondbacks prospect Paul Goldschmidt earned plenty of cheers despite an 0-for-4 day with a punchout. He sets up like Jeff Bagwell with a very wide base and virtually no stride, just a stutter-step as a trigger that doesn't start his weight transfer. He generates power from his lower and upper halves, although he doesn't load his hips at all, but once he starts his swing he rotates his torso and hips in sync and shows easy pull power. If you're looking for the glass-half-empty forecast, he's a first baseman only who doesn't have great bat speed, just a good eye and that big power, and first base is a tough place to profile offensively.
• The feel-good story of the day was Tim Beckham (Tampa Bay) smoking a double off Kelvin Herrera during the U.S. team's eighth-inning rally, turning on a 92 mph fastball and showing that he still can run a little even though he's gotten bigger since high school. Beckham's defense reportedly has improved substantially this season, and he was having a great season at the plate until about four weeks ago, when a five-game hitless streak shaved 50 points off his season OPS, but the offensive standard at short is so low that he can still profile as a regular there. And with fellow prospect Hak-Ju Lee showing good instincts at short, good running speed and a quick bat, the Rays seem to have a surplus at the position.
• It wasn't the greatest day for Bryce Harper, who struck out twice in an 0-for-4 day, but he did show off his arm with a throw from the left-field corner that looked like it was shot from a bazooka. He struck out on some pretty tough pitches, but more importantly, the game made clear what he has to work on -- recognizing quality off-speed stuff, especially changeups, because pitchers will change speeds on him all day until he shows he can make that adjustment. I know Nationals fans can't wait to see Harper in Washington, but bringing him up this season (which the team has said it won't do) wouldn't do him any favors. He'll be a superstar on his timetable.
Later, I'll go into several other players, including the game's MVP, Grant Green, and its youngest prospect, Jurickson Profar, as well as several of the pitchers I didn't mention in this story.
Toughest 2nd half schedules.
Spoiler [+]
You'd love to have a lot of games against the Dodgers in the second half except on the days that Clayton Kershaw is pitching. The Mariners have a young and thin lineup, so you might be glad to see Seattle on your schedule -- but not if you happened to catch it when Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda are on the hill. Washington doesn't have a great record, but the Nationals have been playing well in the past month.
And while the Giants might appear to have a relatively easy schedule for the second half, they always seem to play 2-1 and 3-2 games regardless of which team is in the other dugout.
So the concept of strength of schedule has a lot of variables. The Reds are under .500, but they have the kind of talent that makes them very dangerous; they are capable of getting hot and ripping off 10 straight wins.
But schedules are something that the guys in the suits -- the general managers and assistant GMs -- will take a close look at as they decide whether and when to pull a trigger on moves. The Diamondbacks had easily the toughest schedule of all NL teams in the first quarter of this season, and after they weathered it with a record close to .500, the Arizona brain trust viewed its team as a possible contender. Now the Diamondbacks have what appears to be a stunningly favorable second-half schedule.
Arizona closes the year with a bounty of home games, and 40 percent -- 40 percent -- of its remaining games are against the Dodgers and Padres.
The Rays had a relatively easy schedule out of the gate, but it has gotten rougher of late, and their seas will only get higher in the second half.
Let's rank the second-half schedules for contenders among both leagues from toughest to easiest, with contender being defined as any team that was fewer than 10 games out of first place at the start of play on Saturday.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 36
Noteworthy: Tampa Bay has 26 games in the second half against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Big Finish: Thirteen of the Rays' final 19 games are against the Yankees and the Red Sox. Yeesh.
2. Seattle Mariners
Home/away: Thirty-three of their final 71 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 46
Noteworthy: In the last nine days before the trade deadline, the Mariners will run the gamut of AL East teams, with consecutive series against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.
Big Finish: Seven of the Mariners' final 10 games will be on the road.
3. Minnesota Twins
Home/away: Forty-two of their last 73 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 41
Noteworthy: Look again at the huge number of home games for the Twins in the second half -- the most of any contending team. But they have a rainout makeup at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 19 wedged into a long homestand that won't be easy.
Big Finish: The Twins' final three games are at home against the Royals.
4. Texas Rangers
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 35
Noteworthy: Texas still has seven games left with Boston and six with Tampa Bay; the Rangers are finished with the Yankees.
Big Finish: Nine of the Rangers' final 12 games will be on the road.
5. Chicago White Sox
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 37
Noteworthy: Chicago opens the second half with a nine-game road trip.
Big Finish: The White Sox close the season with a nice six-game homestand versus the Royals and the Jays.
6. Boston Red Sox
Home/away: 36 of 72
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 33
Noteworthy: Boston clubbed the Orioles before the All-Star break, and the Red Sox will get more chances to do that, with 10 games remaining against Baltimore.
Big Finish: The Red Sox close their season with six consecutive road games -- at New York and Baltimore.
7. New York Yankees
Home/away: 32 of 74
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: The Yankees have the fewest home games remaining among the contenders, and they still have one major West Coast trip remaining, with a swing through Anaheim and Seattle.
Big Finish: The last nine games for the Yankees will be an AL East-palooza -- six against the Rays and three against the Red Sox.
8. Los Angeles Angels
Home/away: 33 of 70
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Between now and the trade deadline, the Angels will live on the road -- 14 of 17 games. After that, it's relatively easy.
Big Finish: The Angels' final six games are at home -- versus Oakland, then versus Texas.
9. Cleveland Indians
Home/away: Thirty-six of their final 73 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 25
Noteworthy: The Indians have a total of four games left against the AL East trio of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay -- just one series at Fenway Aug. 1-4.
Big Finish: The Indians are in Detroit for the final three games of the season, and it could be for all the marbles.
10. Detroit Tigers
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 23
Noteworthy: The Tigers have 12 games remaining against Cleveland in the second half. Big Finish: Detroit closes out with seven consecutive home games.
Here are the rankings for the National League (to repeat, the rankings are from toughest remaining schedules to easiest):
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Phillies had one of the easiest schedules of the year at the outset of the season, but it'll be tougher in the second half -- and the Phillies might be better equipped with Chase Utley back.
Big Finish: The Phillies close out the season on the road -- at New York and at Atlanta. One final test.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 38
Noteworthy: The Cardinals' first nine games after the All-Star break are against decent teams, on the road -- at Cincinnati, at New York, at Pittsburgh.
Big Finish: If the Cardinals are close entering the last week, this could bode well -- their last six games are against the National League's worst teams, the Cubs and Astros.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Home/away: Thirty-six of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Pirates could tilt one way or the other by Aug. 14 because they have a lot of games against contenders between now and then -- including a seven-game road swing that will take them through Atlanta and Philadelphia leading up to the trade deadline.
Big Finish: Ten of the Pirates' final 13 games are on the road.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Home/away: Thirty-four of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Brewers open the second half with 11 consecutive road games -- through Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco.
Big Finish: The Brewers will close out the season with six home games against the Marlins and Pirates.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 35
Noteworthy: The Reds' first 16 games after the All-Star break are against teams with records over .500 -- a big mountain to climb right away.
Big Finish: The Reds' last six games will be on the road against the Pirates and Mets.
6. Colorado Rockies
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 32
Noteworthy: Starting near the end of August, the Rockies have a nine-game road swing against division rivals that could be pivotal for them.
Big Finish: The Rockies have seven games on the road in the last week, with four at Houston and three at San Francisco.
7. Atlanta Braves
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 29 Noteworthy: Twenty-five of the Braves' last 44 games are at home. Big Finish: The Braves host the Phillies for the final three games of the season, and the division title may be on the line.
8. San Francisco Giants
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Every game the Giants play in September will be within the Pacific time zone, which makes for pain-free travel.
Big Finish: The Giants have a 10-game road trip before they come home for the final three games against Colorado.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 25
Noteworthy: Whether the Diamondbacks continue to press the Giants will depend a lot on their play against the San Diego Padres and Dodgers -- they have 28 games against the Padres and Los Angeles.
Big Finish: The Diamondbacks end the season with nine consecutive home games.
• After the Yankees' wrenching loss in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, a couple of the Yankees were crying, but some of the veterans spoke with a lot of perspective, about how great it had been to be part of that team, at that time, right after 9/11. Scott Brosius and Paul O'Neill, for example, knew it would be the last time they would play together.
But Derek Jeter's emotions seemed very different than anybody else's in that room. He was just angry. He was accustomed to winning and the Yankees had come within three outs of their fourth consecutive title, and he was just angry. He had played through a broken foot and other injuries and had come up big in a big moment in that game, as usual.
On Saturday, though, Jeter managed to surprise even himself, with his 5-for-5 performance on the day he collected a 3,000th hit -- a homer, of course -- and his performance was the talk of baseball.
Jeter has announced he will not be at the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but already there is an effort being made to get him to Arizona to be honored, to be celebrated. The educated guess here is that folks he respects will convince him. We'll see.
Saturday was a great day at Yankee Stadium, Tyler Kepner writes. It was the ultimate Jeterian feat, writes Wayne Coffey.
It was perfect for Jeter that this came in a win, writes Joel Sherman. This was a reminder of the past, writes Bob Klapisch.
Jeter added to his legacy, writes Mike Lupica.
The fan who caught the ball gave it to Jeter, Sam Borden writes.
From ESPN Stats & Info: The pitch that resulted in No. 3000 was a 78.3 mph curveball low in the zone (the 8 on your phone). In the past five seasons, Jeter had hit only one other home run on a curveball (that was April 30, 2010, off Freddy Garcia of the White Sox). The SIG Home Run Tracker put the distance of Jeter's home run at 420 feet, his longest homer since Aug. 24 of last year and his second-longest at the new Yankee Stadium. He hadn't gone deep in the Bronx since July 22 of last year (off the Royals' Bruce Chen).
The fans who got right-field seats at Yankee Stadium on Saturday expecting Jeter to continue his opposite-field trend had to be disappointed. Three of Jeter's five hits were pulled to left, and a fourth was dumped into center. That's more hits to left than he had in his previous 10 games combined.
In the past three seasons, he's had only one other game in which he's sent three base hits to left field (Aug. 4, 2010, versus Toronto).
[h4]Percent of Jeter's outfield hits to left field[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Percentage[/th][th=""]Home Runs[/th][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]32.7[/td][td]4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]27.6[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011*[/td][td]22.5[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Saturday[/td][td]60.0[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]* Entering Saturday[/td][/tr][/table]
• Ryan Dempster tore into his manager in the dugout. Not good. I wrote here a couple of weeks ago that Mike Quade has lost some players in his clubhouse, and the whole situation feels impossible: Quade is like a guy with a sandbag trying to hold back a flood because his team isn't very good and the veteran leadership is a problem. Some players feel that Quade has changed his approach with them since being shifted from a coach to the manager.
• About Francisco Rodriguez's contract option: The great concern among rival executives is that a what-if situation arises.
K-Rod has finished 34 games and needs 21 more -- or 20, depending on how the contract is interpreted, because of a stipulation about combined games finished from 2010-11 -- from having his $17.5 million option vest automatically. "What if you trade for him to be a setup man," a GM explained, "and your closer gets hurt?"
Then K-Rod's new manager would have a giant political mess, because naturally he'd want to use a guy with a decade of experience closing games -- but the front office wouldn't exactly be thrilled with the possibility of having the $17.5 million option kick in.
In a market that will be glutted with right-handed relievers, Rodriguez's contract option makes him a scary option.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Terry Collins spoke positively about the progress of David Wright, Ike Davis and Jose Reyes; it's possible that all three will be back playing within three weeks, depending on their progress.
2. J.J. Putz will be the D-backs' closer once he comes back from the disabled list, Diamondback manager Kirk Gibson said.
And while the Giants might appear to have a relatively easy schedule for the second half, they always seem to play 2-1 and 3-2 games regardless of which team is in the other dugout.
So the concept of strength of schedule has a lot of variables. The Reds are under .500, but they have the kind of talent that makes them very dangerous; they are capable of getting hot and ripping off 10 straight wins.
But schedules are something that the guys in the suits -- the general managers and assistant GMs -- will take a close look at as they decide whether and when to pull a trigger on moves. The Diamondbacks had easily the toughest schedule of all NL teams in the first quarter of this season, and after they weathered it with a record close to .500, the Arizona brain trust viewed its team as a possible contender. Now the Diamondbacks have what appears to be a stunningly favorable second-half schedule.
Arizona closes the year with a bounty of home games, and 40 percent -- 40 percent -- of its remaining games are against the Dodgers and Padres.
The Rays had a relatively easy schedule out of the gate, but it has gotten rougher of late, and their seas will only get higher in the second half.
Let's rank the second-half schedules for contenders among both leagues from toughest to easiest, with contender being defined as any team that was fewer than 10 games out of first place at the start of play on Saturday.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 36
Noteworthy: Tampa Bay has 26 games in the second half against the Red Sox and Yankees.
Big Finish: Thirteen of the Rays' final 19 games are against the Yankees and the Red Sox. Yeesh.
2. Seattle Mariners
Home/away: Thirty-three of their final 71 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 46
Noteworthy: In the last nine days before the trade deadline, the Mariners will run the gamut of AL East teams, with consecutive series against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.
Big Finish: Seven of the Mariners' final 10 games will be on the road.
3. Minnesota Twins
Home/away: Forty-two of their last 73 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 41
Noteworthy: Look again at the huge number of home games for the Twins in the second half -- the most of any contending team. But they have a rainout makeup at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 19 wedged into a long homestand that won't be easy.
Big Finish: The Twins' final three games are at home against the Royals.
4. Texas Rangers
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 35
Noteworthy: Texas still has seven games left with Boston and six with Tampa Bay; the Rangers are finished with the Yankees.
Big Finish: Nine of the Rangers' final 12 games will be on the road.
5. Chicago White Sox
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 37
Noteworthy: Chicago opens the second half with a nine-game road trip.
Big Finish: The White Sox close the season with a nice six-game homestand versus the Royals and the Jays.
6. Boston Red Sox
Home/away: 36 of 72
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 33
Noteworthy: Boston clubbed the Orioles before the All-Star break, and the Red Sox will get more chances to do that, with 10 games remaining against Baltimore.
Big Finish: The Red Sox close their season with six consecutive road games -- at New York and Baltimore.
7. New York Yankees
Home/away: 32 of 74
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: The Yankees have the fewest home games remaining among the contenders, and they still have one major West Coast trip remaining, with a swing through Anaheim and Seattle.
Big Finish: The last nine games for the Yankees will be an AL East-palooza -- six against the Rays and three against the Red Sox.
8. Los Angeles Angels
Home/away: 33 of 70
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Between now and the trade deadline, the Angels will live on the road -- 14 of 17 games. After that, it's relatively easy.
Big Finish: The Angels' final six games are at home -- versus Oakland, then versus Texas.
9. Cleveland Indians
Home/away: Thirty-six of their final 73 are at home.
Games vs. teams with records over .500: 25
Noteworthy: The Indians have a total of four games left against the AL East trio of Boston, New York and Tampa Bay -- just one series at Fenway Aug. 1-4.
Big Finish: The Indians are in Detroit for the final three games of the season, and it could be for all the marbles.
10. Detroit Tigers
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 23
Noteworthy: The Tigers have 12 games remaining against Cleveland in the second half. Big Finish: Detroit closes out with seven consecutive home games.
Here are the rankings for the National League (to repeat, the rankings are from toughest remaining schedules to easiest):
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Home/away: Thirty-two of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Phillies had one of the easiest schedules of the year at the outset of the season, but it'll be tougher in the second half -- and the Phillies might be better equipped with Chase Utley back.
Big Finish: The Phillies close out the season on the road -- at New York and at Atlanta. One final test.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 38
Noteworthy: The Cardinals' first nine games after the All-Star break are against decent teams, on the road -- at Cincinnati, at New York, at Pittsburgh.
Big Finish: If the Cardinals are close entering the last week, this could bode well -- their last six games are against the National League's worst teams, the Cubs and Astros.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Home/away: Thirty-six of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Pirates could tilt one way or the other by Aug. 14 because they have a lot of games against contenders between now and then -- including a seven-game road swing that will take them through Atlanta and Philadelphia leading up to the trade deadline.
Big Finish: Ten of the Pirates' final 13 games are on the road.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
Home/away: Thirty-four of their last 72 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 36
Noteworthy: The Brewers open the second half with 11 consecutive road games -- through Arizona, Colorado and San Francisco.
Big Finish: The Brewers will close out the season with six home games against the Marlins and Pirates.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 35
Noteworthy: The Reds' first 16 games after the All-Star break are against teams with records over .500 -- a big mountain to climb right away.
Big Finish: The Reds' last six games will be on the road against the Pirates and Mets.
6. Colorado Rockies
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 71 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 32
Noteworthy: Starting near the end of August, the Rockies have a nine-game road swing against division rivals that could be pivotal for them.
Big Finish: The Rockies have seven games on the road in the last week, with four at Houston and three at San Francisco.
7. Atlanta Braves
Home/away: Thirty-five of their last 70 are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 29 Noteworthy: Twenty-five of the Braves' last 44 games are at home. Big Finish: The Braves host the Phillies for the final three games of the season, and the division title may be on the line.
8. San Francisco Giants
Home/away: Thirty-seven of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 26
Noteworthy: Every game the Giants play in September will be within the Pacific time zone, which makes for pain-free travel.
Big Finish: The Giants have a 10-game road trip before they come home for the final three games against Colorado.
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
Home/away: Thirty-nine of their last 70 games are at home.
Games vs. teams with record over .500: 25
Noteworthy: Whether the Diamondbacks continue to press the Giants will depend a lot on their play against the San Diego Padres and Dodgers -- they have 28 games against the Padres and Los Angeles.
Big Finish: The Diamondbacks end the season with nine consecutive home games.
• After the Yankees' wrenching loss in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, a couple of the Yankees were crying, but some of the veterans spoke with a lot of perspective, about how great it had been to be part of that team, at that time, right after 9/11. Scott Brosius and Paul O'Neill, for example, knew it would be the last time they would play together.
But Derek Jeter's emotions seemed very different than anybody else's in that room. He was just angry. He was accustomed to winning and the Yankees had come within three outs of their fourth consecutive title, and he was just angry. He had played through a broken foot and other injuries and had come up big in a big moment in that game, as usual.
On Saturday, though, Jeter managed to surprise even himself, with his 5-for-5 performance on the day he collected a 3,000th hit -- a homer, of course -- and his performance was the talk of baseball.
Jeter has announced he will not be at the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but already there is an effort being made to get him to Arizona to be honored, to be celebrated. The educated guess here is that folks he respects will convince him. We'll see.
Saturday was a great day at Yankee Stadium, Tyler Kepner writes. It was the ultimate Jeterian feat, writes Wayne Coffey.
It was perfect for Jeter that this came in a win, writes Joel Sherman. This was a reminder of the past, writes Bob Klapisch.
Jeter added to his legacy, writes Mike Lupica.
The fan who caught the ball gave it to Jeter, Sam Borden writes.
From ESPN Stats & Info: The pitch that resulted in No. 3000 was a 78.3 mph curveball low in the zone (the 8 on your phone). In the past five seasons, Jeter had hit only one other home run on a curveball (that was April 30, 2010, off Freddy Garcia of the White Sox). The SIG Home Run Tracker put the distance of Jeter's home run at 420 feet, his longest homer since Aug. 24 of last year and his second-longest at the new Yankee Stadium. He hadn't gone deep in the Bronx since July 22 of last year (off the Royals' Bruce Chen).
The fans who got right-field seats at Yankee Stadium on Saturday expecting Jeter to continue his opposite-field trend had to be disappointed. Three of Jeter's five hits were pulled to left, and a fourth was dumped into center. That's more hits to left than he had in his previous 10 games combined.
In the past three seasons, he's had only one other game in which he's sent three base hits to left field (Aug. 4, 2010, versus Toronto).
[h4]Percent of Jeter's outfield hits to left field[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Percentage[/th][th=""]Home Runs[/th][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]32.7[/td][td]4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]27.6[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011*[/td][td]22.5[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Saturday[/td][td]60.0[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]* Entering Saturday[/td][/tr][/table]
• Ryan Dempster tore into his manager in the dugout. Not good. I wrote here a couple of weeks ago that Mike Quade has lost some players in his clubhouse, and the whole situation feels impossible: Quade is like a guy with a sandbag trying to hold back a flood because his team isn't very good and the veteran leadership is a problem. Some players feel that Quade has changed his approach with them since being shifted from a coach to the manager.
• About Francisco Rodriguez's contract option: The great concern among rival executives is that a what-if situation arises.
K-Rod has finished 34 games and needs 21 more -- or 20, depending on how the contract is interpreted, because of a stipulation about combined games finished from 2010-11 -- from having his $17.5 million option vest automatically. "What if you trade for him to be a setup man," a GM explained, "and your closer gets hurt?"
Then K-Rod's new manager would have a giant political mess, because naturally he'd want to use a guy with a decade of experience closing games -- but the front office wouldn't exactly be thrilled with the possibility of having the $17.5 million option kick in.
In a market that will be glutted with right-handed relievers, Rodriguez's contract option makes him a scary option.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Terry Collins spoke positively about the progress of David Wright, Ike Davis and Jose Reyes; it's possible that all three will be back playing within three weeks, depending on their progress.
2. J.J. Putz will be the D-backs' closer once he comes back from the disabled list, Diamondback manager Kirk Gibson said.
Comparing Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
Spoiler [+]
The highlight of Sunday's Futures Game was supposed to be a United States team outfield that included Washington's Bryce Harper and the Angels' Mike Trout. The pair is easily the top two prospects in baseball, but the 1-2 order has been the cause of much debate during the first half of the season. While Trout's call-up to the big leagues takes a tiny bit of luster off of what will still be a star-studded game, there's still plenty of time to keep the debate raging. The fact Trout is suddenly an Angel instead of an Arkansas Traveler doesn't change the player, so here's how scouts and team executives broke down the two prior to the call-up.
Hitting: Both players have impressed scouts with their raw hitting ability, as Trout has a career minor league average of .338 while Harper was hitting .318 in Low-A as an 18-year-old and is 5-for-14 in his first four Double-A games. Harper's ability to hit for average is especially impressive considering his power-focused approach and downright violent swing, but one National League scout sees it as legitimate, saying, "He makes all the right adjustments, not just from at-bat to at-bat, but from pitch to pitch. He just has a fantastic approach." Still, Trout projects easily as a .300-plus hitter in the big leagues, while Harper is expected to be more of a .280-.300 hitter once he's a part of the middle of the Nationals' lineup. "Trout's certainly the better pure hitter," said an American League talent evaluator. "He makes more contact, has fewer holes than Harper and a much simpler swing."
Advantage: Trout
Power: This is where Harper really shines. "It's just rare to see a player like this," said an American League executive. "I can show you plenty of young players with extreme raw power, but his ability to utilize it in games right now is special." While scouts are generally reticent to use the top score of 80 on any player concerning any tool, it's nearly impossible to find a scout who doesn't use the number to project Harper's power, indicating a consistent 35-40-plus home run hitter in the big leagues. Still, Trout is no slouch in this department. With nine home runs in 75 Texas League games this year, he already was showing an improved home run rate, and with his size and strength, scouts project him to be an above-average power threat as his game matures. "It's part of his game people don't talk about, but should," added an American League scout. "He's never going to match Harper in this department, but he's going to hit 20 home runs a year in his prime, and that might be low."
Advantage: Harper
Speed: This contest is similar to power, in that while neither is slow, Trout's top-of-the-line wheels give him a major edge. Scouts consistently clock Trout with sub-4.0 second times from home to first and he's an effective base stealer, with 28 stolen bases in 36 attempts in the Texas League. The only question is how long he'll maintain that speed long-term. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Trout is built more like a defensive back than a classic speedster, leaving a National League scout to say, "It's just not what 80 runners look like, so I don't know if it will last forever." An American League scout was less concerned, saying, "It's not just speed, it's easy speed," and adding, "he'll steal 50 bases a year in the big leagues." Harper also surprises with average to slightly above speed, and already has 20 stolen bases this season. That said, few scouts think he'll maintain that speed into his prime. "I could see him stealing 15-20 bases when he gets to the big leagues," said an American League scouting executive, "but in the end, he's going to get bigger, slower and become more of a classic bat-first slugger."
Advantage: Trout
Field: A catcher in high school and his one junior college season, Harper has made a seamless transition to the outfield and projects as a solid right fielder. Unfortunately, that can't compare in value to a well above-average center fielder, and between his speed and instincts, Trout glides from gap to gap and covers plenty of ground. "We can talk all we want about the offensive potential of these two guys," said one American League executive, "but when one of them not only plays up the middle but plays the position extremely well, that's a huge difference in overall value."
Advantage: Trout
Throwing: Trout's throwing arm is his weakest tool, ranking merely as average. Harper's best defensive tool as a catcher was his plus-plus arm strength, and that's carried over to the outfield, where he's already registered eight outfield assists. He could potentially be a weapon in right field, but there are some concerns. "It's good, but I can't go further than plus because of his incredibly long release, which is an understated factor," said an American League scout.
Advantage: Harper
Makeup: This is the debate that could fill a book. Trout earns nonstop raves for his work ethic and high-energy style of play, while Harper's behavior has been well documented, including a recent incident in which he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher following a home run. "Harper plays hard, but he's a total 'me first' guy," said one American League scout. But an NL evaluator wasn't as concerned. "I've seen plenty of stars that are real jerks," he said, "and I think Harper plays with what I call a positive arrogance." The fact there is any concern for Harper's antics gives the edge to Trout, who gets as much praise for his approach to the game as he does for his obvious skills.
Advantage: Trout
The final call: Industry professionals are understandably split evenly between the two.
"He's somehow more than I expected," said a National League scout of Harper. "He's like a 12-year-old playing on a high school varsity team," he added. "I realize Trout is in the big leagues, but there are plenty of organizations where Harper would be, as well. He's phenomenal and has a Hall of Fame ceiling."
An American League scout disagreed, summarizing, "Trout is going to be a .300-plus hitter with a .380-plus on-base percentage and 20-25 home runs with 50-plus stolen bases. He's a gold-glove middle of the diamond defender with plus-plus makeup and energy. That is a special talent, there is nobody with that package."
An American League scouting executive agreed, saying, "Harper is going to produce more runs than Trout, and be an MVP-level hitter, but Trout is going to do what he does as a center fielder, and when you take that into account, he's far more valuable."
A National League front office member went in the opposite direction. "Harper is younger, and has a higher upside," he said. "The only thing Trout does better is speed and defense and Harper is more than playable in those departments. It's Harper, it's not as close as you think, and I love Trout."
The debate rages on, and due to the age of the two top prospects in baseball, the discussion has the potential to continue into the next decade.
Hitting: Both players have impressed scouts with their raw hitting ability, as Trout has a career minor league average of .338 while Harper was hitting .318 in Low-A as an 18-year-old and is 5-for-14 in his first four Double-A games. Harper's ability to hit for average is especially impressive considering his power-focused approach and downright violent swing, but one National League scout sees it as legitimate, saying, "He makes all the right adjustments, not just from at-bat to at-bat, but from pitch to pitch. He just has a fantastic approach." Still, Trout projects easily as a .300-plus hitter in the big leagues, while Harper is expected to be more of a .280-.300 hitter once he's a part of the middle of the Nationals' lineup. "Trout's certainly the better pure hitter," said an American League talent evaluator. "He makes more contact, has fewer holes than Harper and a much simpler swing."
Advantage: Trout
Power: This is where Harper really shines. "It's just rare to see a player like this," said an American League executive. "I can show you plenty of young players with extreme raw power, but his ability to utilize it in games right now is special." While scouts are generally reticent to use the top score of 80 on any player concerning any tool, it's nearly impossible to find a scout who doesn't use the number to project Harper's power, indicating a consistent 35-40-plus home run hitter in the big leagues. Still, Trout is no slouch in this department. With nine home runs in 75 Texas League games this year, he already was showing an improved home run rate, and with his size and strength, scouts project him to be an above-average power threat as his game matures. "It's part of his game people don't talk about, but should," added an American League scout. "He's never going to match Harper in this department, but he's going to hit 20 home runs a year in his prime, and that might be low."
Advantage: Harper
Speed: This contest is similar to power, in that while neither is slow, Trout's top-of-the-line wheels give him a major edge. Scouts consistently clock Trout with sub-4.0 second times from home to first and he's an effective base stealer, with 28 stolen bases in 36 attempts in the Texas League. The only question is how long he'll maintain that speed long-term. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Trout is built more like a defensive back than a classic speedster, leaving a National League scout to say, "It's just not what 80 runners look like, so I don't know if it will last forever." An American League scout was less concerned, saying, "It's not just speed, it's easy speed," and adding, "he'll steal 50 bases a year in the big leagues." Harper also surprises with average to slightly above speed, and already has 20 stolen bases this season. That said, few scouts think he'll maintain that speed into his prime. "I could see him stealing 15-20 bases when he gets to the big leagues," said an American League scouting executive, "but in the end, he's going to get bigger, slower and become more of a classic bat-first slugger."
Advantage: Trout
Field: A catcher in high school and his one junior college season, Harper has made a seamless transition to the outfield and projects as a solid right fielder. Unfortunately, that can't compare in value to a well above-average center fielder, and between his speed and instincts, Trout glides from gap to gap and covers plenty of ground. "We can talk all we want about the offensive potential of these two guys," said one American League executive, "but when one of them not only plays up the middle but plays the position extremely well, that's a huge difference in overall value."
Advantage: Trout
Throwing: Trout's throwing arm is his weakest tool, ranking merely as average. Harper's best defensive tool as a catcher was his plus-plus arm strength, and that's carried over to the outfield, where he's already registered eight outfield assists. He could potentially be a weapon in right field, but there are some concerns. "It's good, but I can't go further than plus because of his incredibly long release, which is an understated factor," said an American League scout.
Advantage: Harper
Makeup: This is the debate that could fill a book. Trout earns nonstop raves for his work ethic and high-energy style of play, while Harper's behavior has been well documented, including a recent incident in which he blew a kiss at the opposing pitcher following a home run. "Harper plays hard, but he's a total 'me first' guy," said one American League scout. But an NL evaluator wasn't as concerned. "I've seen plenty of stars that are real jerks," he said, "and I think Harper plays with what I call a positive arrogance." The fact there is any concern for Harper's antics gives the edge to Trout, who gets as much praise for his approach to the game as he does for his obvious skills.
Advantage: Trout
The final call: Industry professionals are understandably split evenly between the two.
"He's somehow more than I expected," said a National League scout of Harper. "He's like a 12-year-old playing on a high school varsity team," he added. "I realize Trout is in the big leagues, but there are plenty of organizations where Harper would be, as well. He's phenomenal and has a Hall of Fame ceiling."
An American League scout disagreed, summarizing, "Trout is going to be a .300-plus hitter with a .380-plus on-base percentage and 20-25 home runs with 50-plus stolen bases. He's a gold-glove middle of the diamond defender with plus-plus makeup and energy. That is a special talent, there is nobody with that package."
An American League scouting executive agreed, saying, "Harper is going to produce more runs than Trout, and be an MVP-level hitter, but Trout is going to do what he does as a center fielder, and when you take that into account, he's far more valuable."
A National League front office member went in the opposite direction. "Harper is younger, and has a higher upside," he said. "The only thing Trout does better is speed and defense and Harper is more than playable in those departments. It's Harper, it's not as close as you think, and I love Trout."
The debate rages on, and due to the age of the two top prospects in baseball, the discussion has the potential to continue into the next decade.
Speaking of Damon.
Spoiler [+]
Much of the focus this past week was devoted to Derek Jeter, who homered off of David Price on Saturday to become just the 28th player in major league history to record 3,000 hits. The attention was well deserved, as this was a monumental feat worthy of celebration. When the on-field festivities subsided, however, I couldn’t help but hearken to an earlier article about milestones that buck the Hall of Fame tradition.
No, this has nothing to do with Jeter, who was a first ballot Hall of Famer even if he ended his career at 2,999 like Stan Ross, but rather a current member of the Rays who was in attendance this weekend: Johnny Damon.
Damon has 92 hits this season and is projected to finish with 155, putting him right in line with his totals over the last several seasons. Finishing with 155 hits would also push his career tally to 2,726. Assuming he falls somewhere in the vicinity of that projection, wouldn’t it seem like the 37-year old Damon is a virtual lock for 3,000 hits? He would have to decide to stick around for at least another two seasons, and find an American League team in need of a designated hitter and occasional left fielder, but neither of those caveats seems far-fetched.
Damon has averaged around 150 hits/yr since 2007. With 2,726 entering next season, he would only need to average 137 hits for two seasons, or 91 hits for three seasons. Sure, injuries could derail his pursuit, but I find it difficult to argue that he couldn’t average 90-100 hits from 2012-14, hanging up his cleats as the 30th member of the 3,000 hits club (Alex Rodriguez will get there sooner).
If he gets to that plateau, either his induction into the Hall of Fame becomes automatic, or the milestone itself is cheapened. Given that he would be the 30th person ever to achieve what is considered to be a holy grail of baseball accomplishments, the former scenario seems much more likely than the latter. Yet, Damon has never felt like a Hall of Fame player. He has barely even felt like a superstar. How is it possible that someone with a high probability of getting 3,000+ hits in his career, who won’t have played 25+ seasons like, say, Nolan Ryan or Jamie Moyer, has had such a relatively forgettable career?
Back in April, Matt Klaasen wrote of Damon’s chances of getting into Cooperstown, calling them slim on the basis that he was outperformed by Andre Dawson both in career and peak wins above replacement. You might recall that, while Dawson’s induction wasn’t as criticized as that of Jim Rice, it was still much debatable.
The numbers between Dawson and Damon aren’t even close, and they still won’t be if Damon plays three more seasons and gets his 3,000th hit. Dawson finished with 62.3 WAR while Damon currently stands at 45.5. Add another six wins above replacement from here until the end of the 2014 season and there is still a rather large difference between the two. Obviously having 3,000 hits gives Damon a huge advantage, but the point remains that his candidacy is likely to come under scrutiny even with one of the rarest career accomplishments in baseball under his belt. Of everyone with 3,000 hits, he would have the worst career numbers, and his resume sans milestone pales in comparison to others at his position.
On the other side of the spectrum, he will finish his career with some solid counting stats. He will likely end up with totals around 250 HR, 400 SB, 1,900 runs, 1,200 RBIs. Damon is the perfect example of someone who has been good for a long time, but never truly great. His decline phase has seen him range from 2.4-3.7 WAR, and in his peak he vacillated between below average and all-star levels. His career has been impressive on the whole, but without the milestone his candidacy is barely worthy of a debate. The milestone itself shouldn
No, this has nothing to do with Jeter, who was a first ballot Hall of Famer even if he ended his career at 2,999 like Stan Ross, but rather a current member of the Rays who was in attendance this weekend: Johnny Damon.
Damon has 92 hits this season and is projected to finish with 155, putting him right in line with his totals over the last several seasons. Finishing with 155 hits would also push his career tally to 2,726. Assuming he falls somewhere in the vicinity of that projection, wouldn’t it seem like the 37-year old Damon is a virtual lock for 3,000 hits? He would have to decide to stick around for at least another two seasons, and find an American League team in need of a designated hitter and occasional left fielder, but neither of those caveats seems far-fetched.
Damon has averaged around 150 hits/yr since 2007. With 2,726 entering next season, he would only need to average 137 hits for two seasons, or 91 hits for three seasons. Sure, injuries could derail his pursuit, but I find it difficult to argue that he couldn’t average 90-100 hits from 2012-14, hanging up his cleats as the 30th member of the 3,000 hits club (Alex Rodriguez will get there sooner).
If he gets to that plateau, either his induction into the Hall of Fame becomes automatic, or the milestone itself is cheapened. Given that he would be the 30th person ever to achieve what is considered to be a holy grail of baseball accomplishments, the former scenario seems much more likely than the latter. Yet, Damon has never felt like a Hall of Fame player. He has barely even felt like a superstar. How is it possible that someone with a high probability of getting 3,000+ hits in his career, who won’t have played 25+ seasons like, say, Nolan Ryan or Jamie Moyer, has had such a relatively forgettable career?
Back in April, Matt Klaasen wrote of Damon’s chances of getting into Cooperstown, calling them slim on the basis that he was outperformed by Andre Dawson both in career and peak wins above replacement. You might recall that, while Dawson’s induction wasn’t as criticized as that of Jim Rice, it was still much debatable.
The numbers between Dawson and Damon aren’t even close, and they still won’t be if Damon plays three more seasons and gets his 3,000th hit. Dawson finished with 62.3 WAR while Damon currently stands at 45.5. Add another six wins above replacement from here until the end of the 2014 season and there is still a rather large difference between the two. Obviously having 3,000 hits gives Damon a huge advantage, but the point remains that his candidacy is likely to come under scrutiny even with one of the rarest career accomplishments in baseball under his belt. Of everyone with 3,000 hits, he would have the worst career numbers, and his resume sans milestone pales in comparison to others at his position.
On the other side of the spectrum, he will finish his career with some solid counting stats. He will likely end up with totals around 250 HR, 400 SB, 1,900 runs, 1,200 RBIs. Damon is the perfect example of someone who has been good for a long time, but never truly great. His decline phase has seen him range from 2.4-3.7 WAR, and in his peak he vacillated between below average and all-star levels. His career has been impressive on the whole, but without the milestone his candidacy is barely worthy of a debate. The milestone itself shouldn
Speaking of Damon.
Spoiler [+]
Much of the focus this past week was devoted to Derek Jeter, who homered off of David Price on Saturday to become just the 28th player in major league history to record 3,000 hits. The attention was well deserved, as this was a monumental feat worthy of celebration. When the on-field festivities subsided, however, I couldn’t help but hearken to an earlier article about milestones that buck the Hall of Fame tradition.
No, this has nothing to do with Jeter, who was a first ballot Hall of Famer even if he ended his career at 2,999 like Stan Ross, but rather a current member of the Rays who was in attendance this weekend: Johnny Damon.
Damon has 92 hits this season and is projected to finish with 155, putting him right in line with his totals over the last several seasons. Finishing with 155 hits would also push his career tally to 2,726. Assuming he falls somewhere in the vicinity of that projection, wouldn’t it seem like the 37-year old Damon is a virtual lock for 3,000 hits? He would have to decide to stick around for at least another two seasons, and find an American League team in need of a designated hitter and occasional left fielder, but neither of those caveats seems far-fetched.
Damon has averaged around 150 hits/yr since 2007. With 2,726 entering next season, he would only need to average 137 hits for two seasons, or 91 hits for three seasons. Sure, injuries could derail his pursuit, but I find it difficult to argue that he couldn’t average 90-100 hits from 2012-14, hanging up his cleats as the 30th member of the 3,000 hits club (Alex Rodriguez will get there sooner).
If he gets to that plateau, either his induction into the Hall of Fame becomes automatic, or the milestone itself is cheapened. Given that he would be the 30th person ever to achieve what is considered to be a holy grail of baseball accomplishments, the former scenario seems much more likely than the latter. Yet, Damon has never felt like a Hall of Fame player. He has barely even felt like a superstar. How is it possible that someone with a high probability of getting 3,000+ hits in his career, who won’t have played 25+ seasons like, say, Nolan Ryan or Jamie Moyer, has had such a relatively forgettable career?
Back in April, Matt Klaasen wrote of Damon’s chances of getting into Cooperstown, calling them slim on the basis that he was outperformed by Andre Dawson both in career and peak wins above replacement. You might recall that, while Dawson’s induction wasn’t as criticized as that of Jim Rice, it was still much debatable.
The numbers between Dawson and Damon aren’t even close, and they still won’t be if Damon plays three more seasons and gets his 3,000th hit. Dawson finished with 62.3 WAR while Damon currently stands at 45.5. Add another six wins above replacement from here until the end of the 2014 season and there is still a rather large difference between the two. Obviously having 3,000 hits gives Damon a huge advantage, but the point remains that his candidacy is likely to come under scrutiny even with one of the rarest career accomplishments in baseball under his belt. Of everyone with 3,000 hits, he would have the worst career numbers, and his resume sans milestone pales in comparison to others at his position.
On the other side of the spectrum, he will finish his career with some solid counting stats. He will likely end up with totals around 250 HR, 400 SB, 1,900 runs, 1,200 RBIs. Damon is the perfect example of someone who has been good for a long time, but never truly great. His decline phase has seen him range from 2.4-3.7 WAR, and in his peak he vacillated between below average and all-star levels. His career has been impressive on the whole, but without the milestone his candidacy is barely worthy of a debate. The milestone itself shouldn
No, this has nothing to do with Jeter, who was a first ballot Hall of Famer even if he ended his career at 2,999 like Stan Ross, but rather a current member of the Rays who was in attendance this weekend: Johnny Damon.
Damon has 92 hits this season and is projected to finish with 155, putting him right in line with his totals over the last several seasons. Finishing with 155 hits would also push his career tally to 2,726. Assuming he falls somewhere in the vicinity of that projection, wouldn’t it seem like the 37-year old Damon is a virtual lock for 3,000 hits? He would have to decide to stick around for at least another two seasons, and find an American League team in need of a designated hitter and occasional left fielder, but neither of those caveats seems far-fetched.
Damon has averaged around 150 hits/yr since 2007. With 2,726 entering next season, he would only need to average 137 hits for two seasons, or 91 hits for three seasons. Sure, injuries could derail his pursuit, but I find it difficult to argue that he couldn’t average 90-100 hits from 2012-14, hanging up his cleats as the 30th member of the 3,000 hits club (Alex Rodriguez will get there sooner).
If he gets to that plateau, either his induction into the Hall of Fame becomes automatic, or the milestone itself is cheapened. Given that he would be the 30th person ever to achieve what is considered to be a holy grail of baseball accomplishments, the former scenario seems much more likely than the latter. Yet, Damon has never felt like a Hall of Fame player. He has barely even felt like a superstar. How is it possible that someone with a high probability of getting 3,000+ hits in his career, who won’t have played 25+ seasons like, say, Nolan Ryan or Jamie Moyer, has had such a relatively forgettable career?
Back in April, Matt Klaasen wrote of Damon’s chances of getting into Cooperstown, calling them slim on the basis that he was outperformed by Andre Dawson both in career and peak wins above replacement. You might recall that, while Dawson’s induction wasn’t as criticized as that of Jim Rice, it was still much debatable.
The numbers between Dawson and Damon aren’t even close, and they still won’t be if Damon plays three more seasons and gets his 3,000th hit. Dawson finished with 62.3 WAR while Damon currently stands at 45.5. Add another six wins above replacement from here until the end of the 2014 season and there is still a rather large difference between the two. Obviously having 3,000 hits gives Damon a huge advantage, but the point remains that his candidacy is likely to come under scrutiny even with one of the rarest career accomplishments in baseball under his belt. Of everyone with 3,000 hits, he would have the worst career numbers, and his resume sans milestone pales in comparison to others at his position.
On the other side of the spectrum, he will finish his career with some solid counting stats. He will likely end up with totals around 250 HR, 400 SB, 1,900 runs, 1,200 RBIs. Damon is the perfect example of someone who has been good for a long time, but never truly great. His decline phase has seen him range from 2.4-3.7 WAR, and in his peak he vacillated between below average and all-star levels. His career has been impressive on the whole, but without the milestone his candidacy is barely worthy of a debate. The milestone itself shouldn
- 8,956
- 39
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2007
3,000 will get Damon close but no way in hell should be in the hall. Like you guys said, was he ever that good for his position?
first half MVP's?
AL-Bautista
NL-Kemp? Prince?
first half MVP's?
AL-Bautista
NL-Kemp? Prince?
- 8,956
- 39
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2007
3,000 will get Damon close but no way in hell should be in the hall. Like you guys said, was he ever that good for his position?
first half MVP's?
AL-Bautista
NL-Kemp? Prince?
first half MVP's?
AL-Bautista
NL-Kemp? Prince?
- 4,201
- 141
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2010
Jose Bautista and Andrew McCutchen.
- 4,201
- 141
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2010
Jose Bautista and Andrew McCutchen.
- 13,432
- 224
- Joined
- May 8, 2006
Bautista and Kemp.
- 13,432
- 224
- Joined
- May 8, 2006
Bautista and Kemp.
Bautista and Reyes or Kemp.
This year in the NL will be a true test at MVP. They got it started in the right direction giving Hernandez the Cy, let's see if they'll give the MVP to a deserving player from a non-playoff/losing squad or hand it to someone on the winning squad.
This year in the NL will be a true test at MVP. They got it started in the right direction giving Hernandez the Cy, let's see if they'll give the MVP to a deserving player from a non-playoff/losing squad or hand it to someone on the winning squad.
Bautista and Reyes or Kemp.
This year in the NL will be a true test at MVP. They got it started in the right direction giving Hernandez the Cy, let's see if they'll give the MVP to a deserving player from a non-playoff/losing squad or hand it to someone on the winning squad.
This year in the NL will be a true test at MVP. They got it started in the right direction giving Hernandez the Cy, let's see if they'll give the MVP to a deserving player from a non-playoff/losing squad or hand it to someone on the winning squad.
More prospect reports from the Futures Game.
Five AL trades to make.
Five NL trades to make.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Beltran would OK BoSox, SF[/h3]
8:10AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Mets [/h5]
When the New York Mets were in San Francisco last weekend, there was plenty of buzz on how Carlos Beltran would be a nice fit in AT&T Park.
Beltran has moved on to Phoenix for the All-Star Game, and while there has been no talk of him landing with the D-backs, the outfielder was quite candid about possibly ending up across the country in Boston.
Beltran said it would be a no-brainer to OK a deal to the Red Sox should he be asked to do so.
As for San Francisco, the Giants have been searching for an offensive jolt even before http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30112/buster-poseyBuster Posey went down for the season, and the Giants have the pitching surplus the Mets would covet.
The Giants have so far have refused to budge on dealing a pitcher such as http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28472/jonathan-sanchezJonathan Sanchez, but GM Brian Sabean tells Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News that he and his staff recently began to make contact with trade targets, having conversations with an estimated 15 teams to gauge their willingness to deal.
Could we have a match? Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reported Thursday that the Mets are beginning to take calls on Beltran.
The July 31 trade deadline is less of a barrier to a Beltran deal. He could be dealt in August in a waiver deal since few teams would put in a claim on a player who makes $18.5 million this season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Hardy end up being traded?[/h3]
7:54AM ET
[h5]J.J. Hardy | Orioles [/h5]
There was talk in mid-June that the Baltimore Orioles held internal discussions about a potential contract extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy and that they hoped to initiate contract talks with Hardy's agent before the All-Star break.
The All-Star break is finally here, and Hardy tells Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun he is confident a deal can be reached during the mini-vacation.
If a deal can't get done, don't be surprised if Hardy is used as a major trade chip. The Reds and Brewers are clubs that could use upgrades at short.
ESPN Insider's Matt Meyers suggests a deal that would send Hardy to the Reds for Yonder Alonso:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Matt Meyers[/h5]
Hardy to the Reds for Alonso
http://[h3]Could Bedard land in the Bronx?[/h3]
7:43AM ET
[h5]Erik Bedard | Mariners [/h5]
The Mariners saw a bargaining chip decline in value when Erik Bedard landed on the disabled list earlier this month, and the rate of return may have diminished further.
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes that Bedard won't return to the mound any sooner than Seattle's July 22-24 series in Boston.
Bedard would then be making just a pair of starts prior to the July 31 deadline. Given Bedard?s injury history, that might not be enough time for potential suitors to ascertain whether the lefthander still is damaged goods.
Baker brings up the valuable lesson of Jarrod Washburn, who was acquired by Detroit from Seattle two summers ago and was a disaster down the stretch due to knee problems.
Jonah Keri of FanGraphs suggested Monday that one feasible deal is for the Mariners to ship Bedard to the Yankees for infielder Eduardo Nunez.
"Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position," Keri writes. "Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option."
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Izzy didn't plead with Alderson to stay[/h3]
7:32AM ET
[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]
UPDATE: While Isringhausen's preference is to stay in Queens, he was irate about a headline suggesting he had pleaded with Alderson not to trade him. "I never [bleeping] said one thing about, 'Please don't trade me,'" Isringhausen told Mike Puma of the New York Post.
--
If Jason Isringhausen has his way, it would be to play out the season with the New York Mets.
Andy Martino of the NY Daily News reported last week the Mets are working to sell a trio of relievers, including Francisco Rodriguez as well as setup man Isringhausen and lefthanded specialist http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3910/tim-byrdakTim Byrdak.
Martino reports Monday that when the 38-year-old Isringhausen became aware of the trade winds, the reliever went to Sandy Alderson and told the general manager his preference was to stay in the Big Apple. While he certainly might still trade Isringhausen, Alderson said Sunday that he would consider the veteran's comments.
Isringhausen has taken over the eighth inning role for the Mets and would be a valuable addition to a playoff contender. The problem is the Mets are on the fringe of contention themselves, but staying there would be difficult without Izzy.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pirates look for catching help[/h3]
7:22AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
With Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder on the disabled list, the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for catching help. It turns out the Bucs' pursuit may have been going on for months.
A report on FoxSports.com says the Pirates and Angels engaged in serious talks earlier this season about a trade that would have sent outfielder/first baseman Garrett Jones to Anaheim and catcher Jeff Mathis to Pittsburgh. The discussions reportedly ended after Pirates officials decided they couldn't part with Jones' bat.
The surprisingly competitive Bucs are currently using a catching tandem of Michael McKenry and Eric Fryer. It doesn't help the Pirates that they are competing for catching help with the Giants, who are looking for a replacement for the injured Buster Posey.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]MLB irked at Jeter?[/h3]
7:07AM ET
[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]
The selection process for the All-Star Game has the distinct feel of the Pro Bowl, where a host of players elected to pass up the honor for a few days of rest of relaxation. Those players, of course, will still cash any bonus check that comes with an All-Star selection.
The most prominent of the absentees is Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who recorded his 3,000th hit. Mark Feinsand of the NY Daily News says among those disappointed were Major League Baseball officials, who were hoping Jeter would fly out Tuesday, appear on the field during player introductions, tip his cap and then return to New York. "This could have been a celebration of his 3,000th hit," the official said. "He didn't have to play."
According to a report on FoxSports.com, Jeter will not be attending the festivities because of "emotional and physical exhaustion" from his pursuit of 3,000 hits.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Staying away from LA[/h3]
6:51AM ET
[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]
Even if the bankrupt Los Angeles Dodgers somehow come up with the available cash this winter, the turmoil surrounding the franchise may be enough to scare some players away.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Dodgers talked to some potential free agents who said off-the-field issues such as ownership and the front office would be considered before signing with the Dodgers. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer and C.J. Wilson were among those expressing at least some skepticism.
Translation: Frank McCourt (if he is still around) will have to pay a premium to get any notable free agent to come to Chavez Ravine.
While Padres closer Heath Bell said he would consider the Dodgers, he sounded an alarm about the flood of empty seats at Dodger Stadium.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bell to Angels, Phillies?[/h3]
6:29AM ET
[h5]Heath Bell | Padres [/h5]
The market for relief help is expected to be strong, and it's no secret that the top prize should be San Diego closer Heath Bell. The Padres have slid into last place in the National League West and our Buster Olney wrote recently that Bell might be one of the few difference-makers available.
Nick Cafardo outlined several trade scenarios for Bell in Sunday's Boston Globe. Start with the Yankees, who could be making inquiries given the losses of setup men Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain, and the elbow issues that have bothered Mariano Rivera.
Cafardo cites a major league source who says the Rays are also interested, and they are able to offer a good package of young players. The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies also are believed to be keeping a close eye on Bell, who has 26 saves this season.
The Padres could be hurt by a crowded relief market. Teams may be reluctant to pay a high price for Bell and could go for a less costly alternative such as Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes or Mike Gonzalez.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that his poll of executives has Bell landing in Philadelphia, despite reports that Philly isn't in the market to add salary.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Jonah Keri[/h5]
Bell to Angels for two prospects
Spoiler [+]
Here are some more thoughts on players who appeared in Sunday's Futures Game, focusing on players I didn't include in my first wrapup piece.
One note on these velocities: Most of the pitchers you saw on Sunday were starters who were pitching one inning in what is essentially a showcase game. They didn't have to worry about pacing themselves, and many guys will try to air it out in a situation like that with the guns up and the cameras on. Most of the freakish velocities I'm mentioning would be more of the high end of a range for these guys as starters.
• Henderson Alvarez (Toronto) was 93-97 mph with a fringy curveball that had good two-plane break but lacked tight rotation; he didn't show the plus changeup but located the fastball well. There's some effort there, but he loads his hips to the point where the hitter can see the Z in "Alvarez" and he also generates tremendous torque to get his arm accelerated. I don't know why he doesn't miss more bats, but plus fastball/plus changeup/fringy curveball is still a mid-rotation or better starter in the long term.
• Drew Pomeranz was 93-95 but didn't command the pitch, throwing an average changeup at 84-86 but not the curveball that has helped him strike out 32 of the 56 left-handed hitters he's faced this year, allowing two walks, four singles, and three doubles to the other 24. It looked like Cleveland has done a little maintenance work on the delivery so he's not so horribly long in back, although he still doesn't repeat it well enough for average fastball command.
• I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast. Also with a brief showing, James Paxton (Seattle) threw all fastballs -- impressive at 93-96 with good extension out front, but it would have been nice to see some offspeed stuff.
• I've mentioned concerns about Julio Teheran's breaking ball before, and it was true yesterday too. You saw slow rotation and very early break that hitters will pick up; it's less advanced than Alvarez's, for example, although Teheran is taller, looser, and younger, so he still has top-end projection.
• Tyler Thornburg (Milwaukee) was 92-94 and really drives the ball down well from a very high arm slot, one you rarely see on a starter, but given his short stature he needs to do that to get good downhill plane on the pitch. The curveball was average at 78-81 but he didn't show anything else. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I would rather see the Brewers promote him to the majors and stick him right in the pen than trade a prospect or two to get 15 innings from some veteran reliever down the stretch.
• I was also asked about Brad Peacock (Washington), who has posted outstanding numbers as a starter in Double-A this year after looking more like a one-pitch reliever in the Fall League last year. Peacock was 91-94 with an average curveball (he calls it a knuckle-curve, which isn't great news since so few pitchers can command that pitch) at 73-76 with break somewhere between 12/6 and 11/5. He threw one changeup at 81 mph, running it in to a right-handed hitter. He's a smaller guy with a lot of effort who really has to work to repeat his delivery at all and probably projects as a pen guy despite the knockout performance in the Eastern League.
• The group of hitters wasn't as impressive as the arms, which reflects the situation in the minors as a whole right now. The MVP was shortstop Grant Green (Oakland), who put a very good swing on a two-strike fastball for a double over the left fielder's head, and showed in general a compact approach where he was short to the ball but didn't get great extension. He's a big, athletic kid who hasn't hit for power since his sophomore year of college, and this swing isn't going to produce it.
• Jurickson Profar (Texas) was the youngest player (1 in the game and went up there to get his hacks, putting the first pitch in play in each of his two at bats, popping one out and driving a triple to deep left center on a 91 mph fastball. He looked overanxious in BP too, but did manage to square up an average fastball and showed off his ability to run and instincts.
• Will Middlebrooks (Boston) gets very good extension on his swing and has very good bat speed, although he loads his hands pretty deep creating some unnecessary length. He looked a little raw once the game started, struggling on defense and hitting two balls on the ground, but did stay with a curveball from Liam Hendriks, and he showed in BP that he gets good hip rotation and that extension I mentioned for above-average power.
One note on these velocities: Most of the pitchers you saw on Sunday were starters who were pitching one inning in what is essentially a showcase game. They didn't have to worry about pacing themselves, and many guys will try to air it out in a situation like that with the guns up and the cameras on. Most of the freakish velocities I'm mentioning would be more of the high end of a range for these guys as starters.
• Henderson Alvarez (Toronto) was 93-97 mph with a fringy curveball that had good two-plane break but lacked tight rotation; he didn't show the plus changeup but located the fastball well. There's some effort there, but he loads his hips to the point where the hitter can see the Z in "Alvarez" and he also generates tremendous torque to get his arm accelerated. I don't know why he doesn't miss more bats, but plus fastball/plus changeup/fringy curveball is still a mid-rotation or better starter in the long term.
• Drew Pomeranz was 93-95 but didn't command the pitch, throwing an average changeup at 84-86 but not the curveball that has helped him strike out 32 of the 56 left-handed hitters he's faced this year, allowing two walks, four singles, and three doubles to the other 24. It looked like Cleveland has done a little maintenance work on the delivery so he's not so horribly long in back, although he still doesn't repeat it well enough for average fastball command.
• I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast. Also with a brief showing, James Paxton (Seattle) threw all fastballs -- impressive at 93-96 with good extension out front, but it would have been nice to see some offspeed stuff.
• I've mentioned concerns about Julio Teheran's breaking ball before, and it was true yesterday too. You saw slow rotation and very early break that hitters will pick up; it's less advanced than Alvarez's, for example, although Teheran is taller, looser, and younger, so he still has top-end projection.
• Tyler Thornburg (Milwaukee) was 92-94 and really drives the ball down well from a very high arm slot, one you rarely see on a starter, but given his short stature he needs to do that to get good downhill plane on the pitch. The curveball was average at 78-81 but he didn't show anything else. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I would rather see the Brewers promote him to the majors and stick him right in the pen than trade a prospect or two to get 15 innings from some veteran reliever down the stretch.
• I was also asked about Brad Peacock (Washington), who has posted outstanding numbers as a starter in Double-A this year after looking more like a one-pitch reliever in the Fall League last year. Peacock was 91-94 with an average curveball (he calls it a knuckle-curve, which isn't great news since so few pitchers can command that pitch) at 73-76 with break somewhere between 12/6 and 11/5. He threw one changeup at 81 mph, running it in to a right-handed hitter. He's a smaller guy with a lot of effort who really has to work to repeat his delivery at all and probably projects as a pen guy despite the knockout performance in the Eastern League.
• The group of hitters wasn't as impressive as the arms, which reflects the situation in the minors as a whole right now. The MVP was shortstop Grant Green (Oakland), who put a very good swing on a two-strike fastball for a double over the left fielder's head, and showed in general a compact approach where he was short to the ball but didn't get great extension. He's a big, athletic kid who hasn't hit for power since his sophomore year of college, and this swing isn't going to produce it.
• Jurickson Profar (Texas) was the youngest player (1
in the game and went up there to get his hacks, putting the first pitch in play in each of his two at bats, popping one out and driving a triple to deep left center on a 91 mph fastball. He looked overanxious in BP too, but did manage to square up an average fastball and showed off his ability to run and instincts.• Will Middlebrooks (Boston) gets very good extension on his swing and has very good bat speed, although he loads his hands pretty deep creating some unnecessary length. He looked a little raw once the game started, struggling on defense and hitting two balls on the ground, but did stay with a curveball from Liam Hendriks, and he showed in BP that he gets good hip rotation and that extension I mentioned for above-average power.
Five AL trades to make.
Spoiler [+]
With the trade deadline fast approaching and nine of the 14 American League teams within six games of a playoff spot, the door is open for multiple trades between now and July 31, plus a few waiver deals in August. We're going to ignore the inevitable disappointment that hits every July when few impact deals are made. Instead, let's cook up five trades that could give a lift to this year's contenders.
Texas Rangers trade Tanner Scheppers and Michael Kirkman to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran
A sample of 30-some lucky games aside, Endy Chavez isn't a championship-caliber center fielder. The Rangers' recent success and new 20-year, $3 billion(!) TV deal has turned the team into the high-revenue powerhouse it should have been all these years. That means they can afford to upgrade, and very well might upgrade, even if it means paying some serious bucks to do so. Beltran is in the final year of a seven-year deal that pays him $18.5 million this year, so even if he gets dealt right near the non-waiver deadline, he'll be owed about $6 million -- a sum that'll be too rich for many teams to handle.
Some questions need to be answered, such as whether Josh Hamilton could slide back to center field for the stretch run and be effective there, but there's no questioning Beltran's ability when healthy. The 34-year-old is hitting .288/.375/.506 in a pitcher's park and playing plus defense in a corner outfield slot. The Mets will also likely be happy to shed $6 million-plus in payroll. Acquiring power arms like Scheppers and Kirkman would sweeten the deal considerably, especially if Scheppers is fully recovered from past shoulder troubles and more recent back issues, and if Kirkman can refine his command. If the Rangers pick up all of Beltran's remaining salary, it's possible he could cost a little less, too.
New York Yankees trade Eduardo Nunez to the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard
The Yankees are a strong bet to make the playoffs whether or not they do anything at the trade deadline. And Billy Beane isn't the only person to note the randomness that can occur during the playoffs (even if he's the only one to use excrement to make that point). Still, a healthy Bedard would be a clear upgrade over at least one Yankees pitcher, whether it's Phil Hughes trying to round back into form, or one of the Yankees' scrap-heap finds.
Bedard's 3.00 ERA would rank second in the Yankees' rotation, and his 3.27 xFIP would rank third; he could be a playoff starter on this staff. Left-handed starters like Bedard can be a plus given Yankee Stadium's easy-to-reach right-field porch, and Bedard is much better than your garden-variety lefty, with a career strikeout rate just under a batter an inning and a strikeout-to-walk rate better than 3-to-1 this year. As always, health is the concern with Bedard -- he's expected back from his latest ailment, a knee injury, after the All-Star break.
Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position. Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option.
One thing to keep in mind is that Nunez often fills in at third base. Were a deal to get done, look for it to happen very close to the July 31 deadline to give Alex Rodriguez time to heal from his knee surgery and to avoid overexposing the next guy behind Nunez on the Yankees' third base depth depth chart, Ramiro Pena.
Cleveland Indians trade Nick Weglarz to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Hiroki Kuroda and $2 million
His record looks ugly thanks to the sixth-worst run support in baseball, but Kuroda has put up another solid season, with a 3.06 ERA, 3.66 xFIP and strikeout-to-walk rate of nearly 3-to-1. The 36-year-old's pinpoint control (just over two walks allowed per nine innings for his career) bodes well for his succeeding outside Dodger Stadium, even if he's not top-of-the-rotation material. He doesn't have to be for the Tribe, who have innings concerns with young pitchers like Carlos Carrasco and regression concerns with unlikely success stories like Josh Tomlin, and mostly need a veteran who can offer 12 to 15 starts of slightly above-average performance. Kuroda's making $12 million this year, so the Indians could benefit from the Dodgers sending some cash back.
The 23-year-old Weglarz has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, and his defense is shaky. But he's also a legitimate on-base threat with power, something the Dodgers sorely need. James Loney isn't much better than replacement level and existing prospects like Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson are talented, but not sure things. Adding another candidate for the future first base or left field job would be a coup for a team that probably won't do anything more exciting than this for the rest of this season … on the field anyway.
Detroit Tigers trade Wade Gaynor and Bruce Rondon to the Chicago Cubs for Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood and $4 million
Brandon Inge has been one of the worst everyday players in all of baseball, "hitting" .186/.253/.255. Meanwhile, Ramirez might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now, posting a 1.435 OPS so far this month to overcome a slow start.
It gets complicated with Ramirez's contract, though. He'd be owed about $5 million for the rest of this year if he gets dealt near the deadline. Meanwhile, his $16 million club option would become a player option if he gets dealt, likely putting the Tigers on the hook for that salary -- as well as the $6 million they'll still owe Inge after this year. Still, Ramirez could provide a big boost for one of baseball's most top-heavy lineups, making the Tigers potential favorites to win the AL Central. The Cubs' willingness to handle some of the financial burden could make or break any Ramirez deal. Adding Wood, who struggles at times to find the strike zone but improves the Tigers' bullpen depth, could further expedite a trade.
On the other side, Gaynor's having an off-year after an impressive 2010, but he was a 20-20 player in college who could emerge as an everyday major league third baseman with further development. Rondon is a two-pitch reliever with iffy control but big-time strikeout potential.
Los Angeles Angels trade Fabio Martinez Mesa and Trevor Reckling to the San Diego Padres for Heath Bell
This is a team with the cognitive dissonance to believe that four years and $81 million for Vernon Wells is a good idea, and that Jeff Mathis' pitcher-like offense is adequate given his defensive skills. Even in those two cases, the Angels could easily use internal options like Mike Trout and Hank Conger to address the problem. That leaves the bullpen as the most likely area to upgrade. Like most American League contenders, the Angels are set at the closer position, with rookie Jordan Walden doing an excellent job. But the pen gets thin after veteran lefty Scott Downs and strikeout-reaper Rich Thompson. Bell could be the final piece to a sneakily scary Angels team, especially if they make the playoffs: Good luck scoring runs against Jered Weaver and Dan Haren in the first seven innings, or Bell and Walden in the last two … assuming Bell's performance and declining peripherals hold up away from Petco Park, that is.
Martinez Mesa cooks with gas and led the Midwest League in strikeouts last year, but he also struggles mightily with command and is on the mend from a shoulder injury. Getting a potential Carlos Marmol plus a moderate-upside starter for two months of Heath Bell seems a favorable return, even if Bell ends up qualifying for Type A free agent status at year's end.
Texas Rangers trade Tanner Scheppers and Michael Kirkman to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran
A sample of 30-some lucky games aside, Endy Chavez isn't a championship-caliber center fielder. The Rangers' recent success and new 20-year, $3 billion(!) TV deal has turned the team into the high-revenue powerhouse it should have been all these years. That means they can afford to upgrade, and very well might upgrade, even if it means paying some serious bucks to do so. Beltran is in the final year of a seven-year deal that pays him $18.5 million this year, so even if he gets dealt right near the non-waiver deadline, he'll be owed about $6 million -- a sum that'll be too rich for many teams to handle.
Some questions need to be answered, such as whether Josh Hamilton could slide back to center field for the stretch run and be effective there, but there's no questioning Beltran's ability when healthy. The 34-year-old is hitting .288/.375/.506 in a pitcher's park and playing plus defense in a corner outfield slot. The Mets will also likely be happy to shed $6 million-plus in payroll. Acquiring power arms like Scheppers and Kirkman would sweeten the deal considerably, especially if Scheppers is fully recovered from past shoulder troubles and more recent back issues, and if Kirkman can refine his command. If the Rangers pick up all of Beltran's remaining salary, it's possible he could cost a little less, too.
New York Yankees trade Eduardo Nunez to the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard
The Yankees are a strong bet to make the playoffs whether or not they do anything at the trade deadline. And Billy Beane isn't the only person to note the randomness that can occur during the playoffs (even if he's the only one to use excrement to make that point). Still, a healthy Bedard would be a clear upgrade over at least one Yankees pitcher, whether it's Phil Hughes trying to round back into form, or one of the Yankees' scrap-heap finds.
Bedard's 3.00 ERA would rank second in the Yankees' rotation, and his 3.27 xFIP would rank third; he could be a playoff starter on this staff. Left-handed starters like Bedard can be a plus given Yankee Stadium's easy-to-reach right-field porch, and Bedard is much better than your garden-variety lefty, with a career strikeout rate just under a batter an inning and a strikeout-to-walk rate better than 3-to-1 this year. As always, health is the concern with Bedard -- he's expected back from his latest ailment, a knee injury, after the All-Star break.
Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position. Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option.
One thing to keep in mind is that Nunez often fills in at third base. Were a deal to get done, look for it to happen very close to the July 31 deadline to give Alex Rodriguez time to heal from his knee surgery and to avoid overexposing the next guy behind Nunez on the Yankees' third base depth depth chart, Ramiro Pena.
Cleveland Indians trade Nick Weglarz to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Hiroki Kuroda and $2 million
His record looks ugly thanks to the sixth-worst run support in baseball, but Kuroda has put up another solid season, with a 3.06 ERA, 3.66 xFIP and strikeout-to-walk rate of nearly 3-to-1. The 36-year-old's pinpoint control (just over two walks allowed per nine innings for his career) bodes well for his succeeding outside Dodger Stadium, even if he's not top-of-the-rotation material. He doesn't have to be for the Tribe, who have innings concerns with young pitchers like Carlos Carrasco and regression concerns with unlikely success stories like Josh Tomlin, and mostly need a veteran who can offer 12 to 15 starts of slightly above-average performance. Kuroda's making $12 million this year, so the Indians could benefit from the Dodgers sending some cash back.
The 23-year-old Weglarz has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, and his defense is shaky. But he's also a legitimate on-base threat with power, something the Dodgers sorely need. James Loney isn't much better than replacement level and existing prospects like Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson are talented, but not sure things. Adding another candidate for the future first base or left field job would be a coup for a team that probably won't do anything more exciting than this for the rest of this season … on the field anyway.
Detroit Tigers trade Wade Gaynor and Bruce Rondon to the Chicago Cubs for Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood and $4 million
Brandon Inge has been one of the worst everyday players in all of baseball, "hitting" .186/.253/.255. Meanwhile, Ramirez might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now, posting a 1.435 OPS so far this month to overcome a slow start.
It gets complicated with Ramirez's contract, though. He'd be owed about $5 million for the rest of this year if he gets dealt near the deadline. Meanwhile, his $16 million club option would become a player option if he gets dealt, likely putting the Tigers on the hook for that salary -- as well as the $6 million they'll still owe Inge after this year. Still, Ramirez could provide a big boost for one of baseball's most top-heavy lineups, making the Tigers potential favorites to win the AL Central. The Cubs' willingness to handle some of the financial burden could make or break any Ramirez deal. Adding Wood, who struggles at times to find the strike zone but improves the Tigers' bullpen depth, could further expedite a trade.
On the other side, Gaynor's having an off-year after an impressive 2010, but he was a 20-20 player in college who could emerge as an everyday major league third baseman with further development. Rondon is a two-pitch reliever with iffy control but big-time strikeout potential.
Los Angeles Angels trade Fabio Martinez Mesa and Trevor Reckling to the San Diego Padres for Heath Bell
This is a team with the cognitive dissonance to believe that four years and $81 million for Vernon Wells is a good idea, and that Jeff Mathis' pitcher-like offense is adequate given his defensive skills. Even in those two cases, the Angels could easily use internal options like Mike Trout and Hank Conger to address the problem. That leaves the bullpen as the most likely area to upgrade. Like most American League contenders, the Angels are set at the closer position, with rookie Jordan Walden doing an excellent job. But the pen gets thin after veteran lefty Scott Downs and strikeout-reaper Rich Thompson. Bell could be the final piece to a sneakily scary Angels team, especially if they make the playoffs: Good luck scoring runs against Jered Weaver and Dan Haren in the first seven innings, or Bell and Walden in the last two … assuming Bell's performance and declining peripherals hold up away from Petco Park, that is.
Martinez Mesa cooks with gas and led the Midwest League in strikeouts last year, but he also struggles mightily with command and is on the mend from a shoulder injury. Getting a potential Carlos Marmol plus a moderate-upside starter for two months of Heath Bell seems a favorable return, even if Bell ends up qualifying for Type A free agent status at year's end.
Five NL trades to make.
Spoiler [+]
Once the final out is recorded in Tuesday night's All-Star Game, the baseball world will shift its attention to MLB's next big event: the July 31 trade deadline. As far as Insider is concerned, it's never too early to start talking about the deals the might be made.
In the National League, there are a dozen teams that can make a case for being contenders, though we know that a couple of those clubs (such as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals) would need a lot of rationalizing in order to do so. And although it would be easy to count out the Colorado Rockies, they've shown a remarkable ability to shine in the second half, so they can't be counted out. Therefore, if we disregard the Mets and Nats, that leaves us with 10 contenders in the Senior Circuit. Of that group, only the Philadelphia Phillies feel like a stone-cold lock for the postseason, and even they could use a couple of upgrades.
So what kind of moves can we expect to see from the contenders? I'm not smart enough to predict the future, but I can tell you that these five trades make too much sense not to happen.
Cincinnati Reds trade Yonder Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles for J.J. Hardy
In case you haven't noticed, the Reds have a serious problem at shortstop. Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria have gotten the bulk of the at-bats there, and both have an OPS below .580. As Dave Cameron pointed out recently, J.J. Hardy has been putting together an excellent season, and although the O's have hinted they want to re-sign him, they should be focusing on getting younger. Enter Alonso.
He's a first baseman by trade, but he's blocked in Cincy by Joey Votto. The Reds have had the 24-year-old Alonso playing some left field for Triple-A Louisville, but that's the baseball equivalent of jamming a square peg in a round hole. The O's don't have a long-term solution at first, and Alonso, who's hitting .298/.372/.490, would fit perfectly there.
The Reds are a win-now team and have outscored opponents by 29 runs despite being two games under .500. The NL Central is wide open, and Hardy could help put them over the top. And even they don't re-sign Hardy, they have Zack Cozart ready to take over next year. Cozart is about to turn 26 years old and won't be a star, but he could be a decent regular for a couple of years.
San Francisco Giants trade Franciso Peguero to Minnesota Twins for Michael Cuddyer
It's possible that the Giants will decide to bask in the glow of their 2010 title and not bother with a mid-season upgrade, but this club is in desperate need of some offense. If they get a bat or two, they can repeat.
The Twins need to start looking to the future, and Cuddyer, who's 32 and a free agent after this year, probably isn't a part of it. He's an ideal NL player because he can play first base or right field, as well as second or third in a pinch. Therefore, he would give manager Bruce Bochy a ton of flexibility on double switches. Also, Cuddyer has the extra special veteran glow the Giants so desperately covet.
Peguero, who Keith Law ranked as the Giants' No. 4 prospect in the preseason, missed the first couple of months of the season with a knee injury. The 23-year-old has posted an .849 OPS since his recent promotion to Double-A, and would be a good return for a free-agent-to-be such as Cuddyer.
Philadelphia Phillies trade Jarred Cosart to the Houston Astros for Hunter Pence
Pence could also make sense for the Giants (and Cuddyer for the Phils), but Astros GM Ed Wade served as Phillies GM from 1998 to 2005 and traded them Roy Oswalt last July, so Houston and Philly are natural trading partners.
The Phillies could really use a right-handed bat, particularly in the outfield, to balance out their left-leaning lineup. Pence won't be a free agent for another year and a half, so he wouldn't be a half-season rental. Therefore, the Phils would need to give up their top pitching prospect in order to get him. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and years away from competing. They've already shown a willingness to deal their "name" players, when they moved Oswalt and Lance Berkman at last year's deadline. Pence is good, but not good enough to build the franchise around, and should be moved for a younger, cheaper player.
Carlos Beltran would also be a fit for the Phillies or Giants, but it's unlikely the New York Mets would want to trade him to their division rival.
Arizona Diamondbacks trade Matt Davidson and A.J. Pollock to the Oakland Athletics for Gio Gonzalez
Discount the D-backs at your own risk. Not only are they three games behind the Giants for first place in the NL West, but their run differential is just one run worse. However, they need some pitching, as their starting pitcher FIP (4.00) ranks 11th in the NL. Gonzalez has some control issues, but he's one of the most consistent strikeout pitchers in the game and would be a huge upgrade for Arizona's staff for this year and beyond. And that's why the price is so steep: Gonzalez will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this year and won't be a free agent for three more years, so Arizona would have him under control for a while.
Why does Oakland do this deal? Because they haven't been able to put together an even average offense in years and desperately need some promising young position players. Both third baseman Davidson and center fielder Pollock are recent first-round picks and would give the A's a much-needed boost of offensive potential. With Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Miguel Montero, the D-backs have a strong core of players who are young enough to keep them in contention for awhile. Adding Gonzalez to the mix would boost that effort immediately and into the future.
Milwaukee Brewers trade any number of warm bodies to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Rafael Furcal
When the Brewers gutted their farm system last winter in trades for Shawn Marcum and Zack Greinke, the message was clear: We want to win now. However, running Yuniesky Betancourt out out at shortstop night in and night out runs directly counter to that plan.
Betancourt has an OPS+ of 74 in more than 1,400 plate appearances over the last three seasons and might be the worst everyday player in baseball. (Spare me the "he's an excellent defender" talk. Although there is reason to be skeptical of defensive metrics, every single one says Betancourt is awful on defense.)
The good news for the Brew Crew is that it won't be hard to upgrade at that position. As noted, Milwaukee's farm system is threadbare, but that's why the Los Angeles Dodgers are the perfect trading partner -- they're desperate to cut salary.
Furcal is making $10 million, and the Dodgers, who you may have heard are in some financial trouble, can save around $4 million if they trade him in the next couple of weeks. Furcal hasn't been playing particularly well since his return from the DL, but his track record suggests he would be a major upgrade over Betancourt and he shouldn't cost that much in talent to acquire, so any middling prospect should do. Furcal does have a limited no-trade clause and can block deals to specific teams. However, considering the shape of the Dodgers, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't agree to go play for a contender for a couple of months.
In the National League, there are a dozen teams that can make a case for being contenders, though we know that a couple of those clubs (such as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals) would need a lot of rationalizing in order to do so. And although it would be easy to count out the Colorado Rockies, they've shown a remarkable ability to shine in the second half, so they can't be counted out. Therefore, if we disregard the Mets and Nats, that leaves us with 10 contenders in the Senior Circuit. Of that group, only the Philadelphia Phillies feel like a stone-cold lock for the postseason, and even they could use a couple of upgrades.
So what kind of moves can we expect to see from the contenders? I'm not smart enough to predict the future, but I can tell you that these five trades make too much sense not to happen.
Cincinnati Reds trade Yonder Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles for J.J. Hardy
In case you haven't noticed, the Reds have a serious problem at shortstop. Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria have gotten the bulk of the at-bats there, and both have an OPS below .580. As Dave Cameron pointed out recently, J.J. Hardy has been putting together an excellent season, and although the O's have hinted they want to re-sign him, they should be focusing on getting younger. Enter Alonso.
He's a first baseman by trade, but he's blocked in Cincy by Joey Votto. The Reds have had the 24-year-old Alonso playing some left field for Triple-A Louisville, but that's the baseball equivalent of jamming a square peg in a round hole. The O's don't have a long-term solution at first, and Alonso, who's hitting .298/.372/.490, would fit perfectly there.
The Reds are a win-now team and have outscored opponents by 29 runs despite being two games under .500. The NL Central is wide open, and Hardy could help put them over the top. And even they don't re-sign Hardy, they have Zack Cozart ready to take over next year. Cozart is about to turn 26 years old and won't be a star, but he could be a decent regular for a couple of years.
San Francisco Giants trade Franciso Peguero to Minnesota Twins for Michael Cuddyer
It's possible that the Giants will decide to bask in the glow of their 2010 title and not bother with a mid-season upgrade, but this club is in desperate need of some offense. If they get a bat or two, they can repeat.
The Twins need to start looking to the future, and Cuddyer, who's 32 and a free agent after this year, probably isn't a part of it. He's an ideal NL player because he can play first base or right field, as well as second or third in a pinch. Therefore, he would give manager Bruce Bochy a ton of flexibility on double switches. Also, Cuddyer has the extra special veteran glow the Giants so desperately covet.
Peguero, who Keith Law ranked as the Giants' No. 4 prospect in the preseason, missed the first couple of months of the season with a knee injury. The 23-year-old has posted an .849 OPS since his recent promotion to Double-A, and would be a good return for a free-agent-to-be such as Cuddyer.
Philadelphia Phillies trade Jarred Cosart to the Houston Astros for Hunter Pence
Pence could also make sense for the Giants (and Cuddyer for the Phils), but Astros GM Ed Wade served as Phillies GM from 1998 to 2005 and traded them Roy Oswalt last July, so Houston and Philly are natural trading partners.
The Phillies could really use a right-handed bat, particularly in the outfield, to balance out their left-leaning lineup. Pence won't be a free agent for another year and a half, so he wouldn't be a half-season rental. Therefore, the Phils would need to give up their top pitching prospect in order to get him. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and years away from competing. They've already shown a willingness to deal their "name" players, when they moved Oswalt and Lance Berkman at last year's deadline. Pence is good, but not good enough to build the franchise around, and should be moved for a younger, cheaper player.
Carlos Beltran would also be a fit for the Phillies or Giants, but it's unlikely the New York Mets would want to trade him to their division rival.
Arizona Diamondbacks trade Matt Davidson and A.J. Pollock to the Oakland Athletics for Gio Gonzalez
Discount the D-backs at your own risk. Not only are they three games behind the Giants for first place in the NL West, but their run differential is just one run worse. However, they need some pitching, as their starting pitcher FIP (4.00) ranks 11th in the NL. Gonzalez has some control issues, but he's one of the most consistent strikeout pitchers in the game and would be a huge upgrade for Arizona's staff for this year and beyond. And that's why the price is so steep: Gonzalez will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this year and won't be a free agent for three more years, so Arizona would have him under control for a while.
Why does Oakland do this deal? Because they haven't been able to put together an even average offense in years and desperately need some promising young position players. Both third baseman Davidson and center fielder Pollock are recent first-round picks and would give the A's a much-needed boost of offensive potential. With Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Miguel Montero, the D-backs have a strong core of players who are young enough to keep them in contention for awhile. Adding Gonzalez to the mix would boost that effort immediately and into the future.
Milwaukee Brewers trade any number of warm bodies to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Rafael Furcal
When the Brewers gutted their farm system last winter in trades for Shawn Marcum and Zack Greinke, the message was clear: We want to win now. However, running Yuniesky Betancourt out out at shortstop night in and night out runs directly counter to that plan.
Betancourt has an OPS+ of 74 in more than 1,400 plate appearances over the last three seasons and might be the worst everyday player in baseball. (Spare me the "he's an excellent defender" talk. Although there is reason to be skeptical of defensive metrics, every single one says Betancourt is awful on defense.)
The good news for the Brew Crew is that it won't be hard to upgrade at that position. As noted, Milwaukee's farm system is threadbare, but that's why the Los Angeles Dodgers are the perfect trading partner -- they're desperate to cut salary.
Furcal is making $10 million, and the Dodgers, who you may have heard are in some financial trouble, can save around $4 million if they trade him in the next couple of weeks. Furcal hasn't been playing particularly well since his return from the DL, but his track record suggests he would be a major upgrade over Betancourt and he shouldn't cost that much in talent to acquire, so any middling prospect should do. Furcal does have a limited no-trade clause and can block deals to specific teams. However, considering the shape of the Dodgers, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't agree to go play for a contender for a couple of months.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Boras won't talk Ellsbury deal[/h3]
9:52AM ET
[h5]Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox [/h5]
Agent Scott Boras put the kibosh on any chance of the Boston Red Sox negotiating an in-season deal with Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
"These things are offseason discussions," Boras told the Boston Herald. "Whenever people ask me midseason about contracts, you have to make sure the player finishes the season. Only then is it the right point."
Even an offseason deal would by no means be a guarantee with Boras, who often has his clients test the free agent waters. Ellsbury, who is batting .316 with 11 homers and 28 stolen bases, is under Red Sox control through the 2013 season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards shopping Rasmus?[/h3]
9:40AM ET
[h5]Colby Rasmus | Cardinals [/h5]
The St. Louis Cardinals have managed to stay afloat in the National League Central despite a rash of injuries. A team that has used the disabled list 15 times this season is willing to deal, and the trade bait might include the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Over the next three weeks the Cardinals hope to move aggressively to acquire a pitcher to bolster the back end of its starting rotation or to give the bullpen a jolt. The main bargaining chip could be the previously unavailable Rasmus, who is closing in on arbitration and has shown erratic development as a center fielder. But even with his stock down slightly, Rasmus (.264 BA) could still bring back solid value.
Strauss hears that GM John Mozeliak be willing to call on long-standing interest from the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, who could use another bat.
A trade of Rasmus could indicate the Cardinals are willing to hand the center field job over to Jon Jay, at least temporarily.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jacob Turner close to The Show?[/h3]
9:23AM ET
[h5]Detroit Tigers [/h5]
Jacob Turner got a brief glimpse of the spotlight when he retired two batters for Team USA in the ninth inning of Sunday's Futures Game. That may be only a warm-up act for the 2009 first-round draft choice, who could be pitching for the Detroit Tigers by next week.
The Tigers sent starting pitcher Charlie Furbush to the minors after he got knocked out early Saturday night. John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes that could open the door for Turner, whose next start might be a week from Wednesday in Detroit against Oakland.
The Tigers, like a host of other teams, are looking for starting pitching as the deadline draw nears. Another option is to stay in house with the 20-year-old Turner, who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a host of no-decisions at Double-A Erie.
Our Keith Law gives his take on what he saw from Turner, as well as other prospects, in Sunday's Futures Game:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Futures Game Part II
"I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast."
9:52AM ET
[h5]Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox [/h5]
Agent Scott Boras put the kibosh on any chance of the Boston Red Sox negotiating an in-season deal with Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
"These things are offseason discussions," Boras told the Boston Herald. "Whenever people ask me midseason about contracts, you have to make sure the player finishes the season. Only then is it the right point."
Even an offseason deal would by no means be a guarantee with Boras, who often has his clients test the free agent waters. Ellsbury, who is batting .316 with 11 homers and 28 stolen bases, is under Red Sox control through the 2013 season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards shopping Rasmus?[/h3]
9:40AM ET
[h5]Colby Rasmus | Cardinals [/h5]
The St. Louis Cardinals have managed to stay afloat in the National League Central despite a rash of injuries. A team that has used the disabled list 15 times this season is willing to deal, and the trade bait might include the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Over the next three weeks the Cardinals hope to move aggressively to acquire a pitcher to bolster the back end of its starting rotation or to give the bullpen a jolt. The main bargaining chip could be the previously unavailable Rasmus, who is closing in on arbitration and has shown erratic development as a center fielder. But even with his stock down slightly, Rasmus (.264 BA) could still bring back solid value.
Strauss hears that GM John Mozeliak be willing to call on long-standing interest from the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, who could use another bat.
A trade of Rasmus could indicate the Cardinals are willing to hand the center field job over to Jon Jay, at least temporarily.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jacob Turner close to The Show?[/h3]
9:23AM ET
[h5]Detroit Tigers [/h5]
Jacob Turner got a brief glimpse of the spotlight when he retired two batters for Team USA in the ninth inning of Sunday's Futures Game. That may be only a warm-up act for the 2009 first-round draft choice, who could be pitching for the Detroit Tigers by next week.
The Tigers sent starting pitcher Charlie Furbush to the minors after he got knocked out early Saturday night. John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes that could open the door for Turner, whose next start might be a week from Wednesday in Detroit against Oakland.
The Tigers, like a host of other teams, are looking for starting pitching as the deadline draw nears. Another option is to stay in house with the 20-year-old Turner, who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a host of no-decisions at Double-A Erie.
Our Keith Law gives his take on what he saw from Turner, as well as other prospects, in Sunday's Futures Game:
- Doug Mittler
Futures Game Part II
"I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast."
8:10AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Mets [/h5]
When the New York Mets were in San Francisco last weekend, there was plenty of buzz on how Carlos Beltran would be a nice fit in AT&T Park.
Beltran has moved on to Phoenix for the All-Star Game, and while there has been no talk of him landing with the D-backs, the outfielder was quite candid about possibly ending up across the country in Boston.
Beltran said it would be a no-brainer to OK a deal to the Red Sox should he be asked to do so.
As for San Francisco, the Giants have been searching for an offensive jolt even before http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30112/buster-poseyBuster Posey went down for the season, and the Giants have the pitching surplus the Mets would covet.
The Giants have so far have refused to budge on dealing a pitcher such as http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28472/jonathan-sanchezJonathan Sanchez, but GM Brian Sabean tells Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News that he and his staff recently began to make contact with trade targets, having conversations with an estimated 15 teams to gauge their willingness to deal.
Could we have a match? Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reported Thursday that the Mets are beginning to take calls on Beltran.
The July 31 trade deadline is less of a barrier to a Beltran deal. He could be dealt in August in a waiver deal since few teams would put in a claim on a player who makes $18.5 million this season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Hardy end up being traded?[/h3]
7:54AM ET
[h5]J.J. Hardy | Orioles [/h5]
There was talk in mid-June that the Baltimore Orioles held internal discussions about a potential contract extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy and that they hoped to initiate contract talks with Hardy's agent before the All-Star break.
The All-Star break is finally here, and Hardy tells Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun he is confident a deal can be reached during the mini-vacation.
If a deal can't get done, don't be surprised if Hardy is used as a major trade chip. The Reds and Brewers are clubs that could use upgrades at short.
ESPN Insider's Matt Meyers suggests a deal that would send Hardy to the Reds for Yonder Alonso:
- Doug Mittler
Hardy to the Reds for Alonso
http://[h3]Could Bedard land in the Bronx?[/h3]
7:43AM ET
[h5]Erik Bedard | Mariners [/h5]
The Mariners saw a bargaining chip decline in value when Erik Bedard landed on the disabled list earlier this month, and the rate of return may have diminished further.
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes that Bedard won't return to the mound any sooner than Seattle's July 22-24 series in Boston.
Bedard would then be making just a pair of starts prior to the July 31 deadline. Given Bedard?s injury history, that might not be enough time for potential suitors to ascertain whether the lefthander still is damaged goods.
Baker brings up the valuable lesson of Jarrod Washburn, who was acquired by Detroit from Seattle two summers ago and was a disaster down the stretch due to knee problems.
Jonah Keri of FanGraphs suggested Monday that one feasible deal is for the Mariners to ship Bedard to the Yankees for infielder Eduardo Nunez.
"Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position," Keri writes. "Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option."
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Izzy didn't plead with Alderson to stay[/h3]
7:32AM ET
[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]
UPDATE: While Isringhausen's preference is to stay in Queens, he was irate about a headline suggesting he had pleaded with Alderson not to trade him. "I never [bleeping] said one thing about, 'Please don't trade me,'" Isringhausen told Mike Puma of the New York Post.
--
If Jason Isringhausen has his way, it would be to play out the season with the New York Mets.
Andy Martino of the NY Daily News reported last week the Mets are working to sell a trio of relievers, including Francisco Rodriguez as well as setup man Isringhausen and lefthanded specialist http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3910/tim-byrdakTim Byrdak.
Martino reports Monday that when the 38-year-old Isringhausen became aware of the trade winds, the reliever went to Sandy Alderson and told the general manager his preference was to stay in the Big Apple. While he certainly might still trade Isringhausen, Alderson said Sunday that he would consider the veteran's comments.
Isringhausen has taken over the eighth inning role for the Mets and would be a valuable addition to a playoff contender. The problem is the Mets are on the fringe of contention themselves, but staying there would be difficult without Izzy.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pirates look for catching help[/h3]
7:22AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
With Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder on the disabled list, the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for catching help. It turns out the Bucs' pursuit may have been going on for months.
A report on FoxSports.com says the Pirates and Angels engaged in serious talks earlier this season about a trade that would have sent outfielder/first baseman Garrett Jones to Anaheim and catcher Jeff Mathis to Pittsburgh. The discussions reportedly ended after Pirates officials decided they couldn't part with Jones' bat.
The surprisingly competitive Bucs are currently using a catching tandem of Michael McKenry and Eric Fryer. It doesn't help the Pirates that they are competing for catching help with the Giants, who are looking for a replacement for the injured Buster Posey.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]MLB irked at Jeter?[/h3]
7:07AM ET
[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]
The selection process for the All-Star Game has the distinct feel of the Pro Bowl, where a host of players elected to pass up the honor for a few days of rest of relaxation. Those players, of course, will still cash any bonus check that comes with an All-Star selection.
The most prominent of the absentees is Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who recorded his 3,000th hit. Mark Feinsand of the NY Daily News says among those disappointed were Major League Baseball officials, who were hoping Jeter would fly out Tuesday, appear on the field during player introductions, tip his cap and then return to New York. "This could have been a celebration of his 3,000th hit," the official said. "He didn't have to play."
According to a report on FoxSports.com, Jeter will not be attending the festivities because of "emotional and physical exhaustion" from his pursuit of 3,000 hits.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Staying away from LA[/h3]
6:51AM ET
[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]
Even if the bankrupt Los Angeles Dodgers somehow come up with the available cash this winter, the turmoil surrounding the franchise may be enough to scare some players away.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Dodgers talked to some potential free agents who said off-the-field issues such as ownership and the front office would be considered before signing with the Dodgers. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer and C.J. Wilson were among those expressing at least some skepticism.
Translation: Frank McCourt (if he is still around) will have to pay a premium to get any notable free agent to come to Chavez Ravine.
While Padres closer Heath Bell said he would consider the Dodgers, he sounded an alarm about the flood of empty seats at Dodger Stadium.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bell to Angels, Phillies?[/h3]
6:29AM ET
[h5]Heath Bell | Padres [/h5]
The market for relief help is expected to be strong, and it's no secret that the top prize should be San Diego closer Heath Bell. The Padres have slid into last place in the National League West and our Buster Olney wrote recently that Bell might be one of the few difference-makers available.
Nick Cafardo outlined several trade scenarios for Bell in Sunday's Boston Globe. Start with the Yankees, who could be making inquiries given the losses of setup men Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain, and the elbow issues that have bothered Mariano Rivera.
Cafardo cites a major league source who says the Rays are also interested, and they are able to offer a good package of young players. The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies also are believed to be keeping a close eye on Bell, who has 26 saves this season.
The Padres could be hurt by a crowded relief market. Teams may be reluctant to pay a high price for Bell and could go for a less costly alternative such as Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes or Mike Gonzalez.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that his poll of executives has Bell landing in Philadelphia, despite reports that Philly isn't in the market to add salary.
- Doug Mittler
Bell to Angels for two prospects
More prospect reports from the Futures Game.
Five AL trades to make.
Five NL trades to make.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Beltran would OK BoSox, SF[/h3]
8:10AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Mets [/h5]
When the New York Mets were in San Francisco last weekend, there was plenty of buzz on how Carlos Beltran would be a nice fit in AT&T Park.
Beltran has moved on to Phoenix for the All-Star Game, and while there has been no talk of him landing with the D-backs, the outfielder was quite candid about possibly ending up across the country in Boston.
Beltran said it would be a no-brainer to OK a deal to the Red Sox should he be asked to do so.
As for San Francisco, the Giants have been searching for an offensive jolt even before http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30112/buster-poseyBuster Posey went down for the season, and the Giants have the pitching surplus the Mets would covet.
The Giants have so far have refused to budge on dealing a pitcher such as http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28472/jonathan-sanchezJonathan Sanchez, but GM Brian Sabean tells Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News that he and his staff recently began to make contact with trade targets, having conversations with an estimated 15 teams to gauge their willingness to deal.
Could we have a match? Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reported Thursday that the Mets are beginning to take calls on Beltran.
The July 31 trade deadline is less of a barrier to a Beltran deal. He could be dealt in August in a waiver deal since few teams would put in a claim on a player who makes $18.5 million this season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Hardy end up being traded?[/h3]
7:54AM ET
[h5]J.J. Hardy | Orioles [/h5]
There was talk in mid-June that the Baltimore Orioles held internal discussions about a potential contract extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy and that they hoped to initiate contract talks with Hardy's agent before the All-Star break.
The All-Star break is finally here, and Hardy tells Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun he is confident a deal can be reached during the mini-vacation.
If a deal can't get done, don't be surprised if Hardy is used as a major trade chip. The Reds and Brewers are clubs that could use upgrades at short.
ESPN Insider's Matt Meyers suggests a deal that would send Hardy to the Reds for Yonder Alonso:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Matt Meyers[/h5]
Hardy to the Reds for Alonso
http://[h3]Could Bedard land in the Bronx?[/h3]
7:43AM ET
[h5]Erik Bedard | Mariners [/h5]
The Mariners saw a bargaining chip decline in value when Erik Bedard landed on the disabled list earlier this month, and the rate of return may have diminished further.
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes that Bedard won't return to the mound any sooner than Seattle's July 22-24 series in Boston.
Bedard would then be making just a pair of starts prior to the July 31 deadline. Given Bedard?s injury history, that might not be enough time for potential suitors to ascertain whether the lefthander still is damaged goods.
Baker brings up the valuable lesson of Jarrod Washburn, who was acquired by Detroit from Seattle two summers ago and was a disaster down the stretch due to knee problems.
Jonah Keri of FanGraphs suggested Monday that one feasible deal is for the Mariners to ship Bedard to the Yankees for infielder Eduardo Nunez.
"Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position," Keri writes. "Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option."
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Izzy didn't plead with Alderson to stay[/h3]
7:32AM ET
[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]
UPDATE: While Isringhausen's preference is to stay in Queens, he was irate about a headline suggesting he had pleaded with Alderson not to trade him. "I never [bleeping] said one thing about, 'Please don't trade me,'" Isringhausen told Mike Puma of the New York Post.
--
If Jason Isringhausen has his way, it would be to play out the season with the New York Mets.
Andy Martino of the NY Daily News reported last week the Mets are working to sell a trio of relievers, including Francisco Rodriguez as well as setup man Isringhausen and lefthanded specialist http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3910/tim-byrdakTim Byrdak.
Martino reports Monday that when the 38-year-old Isringhausen became aware of the trade winds, the reliever went to Sandy Alderson and told the general manager his preference was to stay in the Big Apple. While he certainly might still trade Isringhausen, Alderson said Sunday that he would consider the veteran's comments.
Isringhausen has taken over the eighth inning role for the Mets and would be a valuable addition to a playoff contender. The problem is the Mets are on the fringe of contention themselves, but staying there would be difficult without Izzy.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pirates look for catching help[/h3]
7:22AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
With Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder on the disabled list, the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for catching help. It turns out the Bucs' pursuit may have been going on for months.
A report on FoxSports.com says the Pirates and Angels engaged in serious talks earlier this season about a trade that would have sent outfielder/first baseman Garrett Jones to Anaheim and catcher Jeff Mathis to Pittsburgh. The discussions reportedly ended after Pirates officials decided they couldn't part with Jones' bat.
The surprisingly competitive Bucs are currently using a catching tandem of Michael McKenry and Eric Fryer. It doesn't help the Pirates that they are competing for catching help with the Giants, who are looking for a replacement for the injured Buster Posey.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]MLB irked at Jeter?[/h3]
7:07AM ET
[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]
The selection process for the All-Star Game has the distinct feel of the Pro Bowl, where a host of players elected to pass up the honor for a few days of rest of relaxation. Those players, of course, will still cash any bonus check that comes with an All-Star selection.
The most prominent of the absentees is Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who recorded his 3,000th hit. Mark Feinsand of the NY Daily News says among those disappointed were Major League Baseball officials, who were hoping Jeter would fly out Tuesday, appear on the field during player introductions, tip his cap and then return to New York. "This could have been a celebration of his 3,000th hit," the official said. "He didn't have to play."
According to a report on FoxSports.com, Jeter will not be attending the festivities because of "emotional and physical exhaustion" from his pursuit of 3,000 hits.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Staying away from LA[/h3]
6:51AM ET
[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]
Even if the bankrupt Los Angeles Dodgers somehow come up with the available cash this winter, the turmoil surrounding the franchise may be enough to scare some players away.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Dodgers talked to some potential free agents who said off-the-field issues such as ownership and the front office would be considered before signing with the Dodgers. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer and C.J. Wilson were among those expressing at least some skepticism.
Translation: Frank McCourt (if he is still around) will have to pay a premium to get any notable free agent to come to Chavez Ravine.
While Padres closer Heath Bell said he would consider the Dodgers, he sounded an alarm about the flood of empty seats at Dodger Stadium.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bell to Angels, Phillies?[/h3]
6:29AM ET
[h5]Heath Bell | Padres [/h5]
The market for relief help is expected to be strong, and it's no secret that the top prize should be San Diego closer Heath Bell. The Padres have slid into last place in the National League West and our Buster Olney wrote recently that Bell might be one of the few difference-makers available.
Nick Cafardo outlined several trade scenarios for Bell in Sunday's Boston Globe. Start with the Yankees, who could be making inquiries given the losses of setup men Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain, and the elbow issues that have bothered Mariano Rivera.
Cafardo cites a major league source who says the Rays are also interested, and they are able to offer a good package of young players. The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies also are believed to be keeping a close eye on Bell, who has 26 saves this season.
The Padres could be hurt by a crowded relief market. Teams may be reluctant to pay a high price for Bell and could go for a less costly alternative such as Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes or Mike Gonzalez.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that his poll of executives has Bell landing in Philadelphia, despite reports that Philly isn't in the market to add salary.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Jonah Keri[/h5]
Bell to Angels for two prospects
Spoiler [+]
Here are some more thoughts on players who appeared in Sunday's Futures Game, focusing on players I didn't include in my first wrapup piece.
One note on these velocities: Most of the pitchers you saw on Sunday were starters who were pitching one inning in what is essentially a showcase game. They didn't have to worry about pacing themselves, and many guys will try to air it out in a situation like that with the guns up and the cameras on. Most of the freakish velocities I'm mentioning would be more of the high end of a range for these guys as starters.
• Henderson Alvarez (Toronto) was 93-97 mph with a fringy curveball that had good two-plane break but lacked tight rotation; he didn't show the plus changeup but located the fastball well. There's some effort there, but he loads his hips to the point where the hitter can see the Z in "Alvarez" and he also generates tremendous torque to get his arm accelerated. I don't know why he doesn't miss more bats, but plus fastball/plus changeup/fringy curveball is still a mid-rotation or better starter in the long term.
• Drew Pomeranz was 93-95 but didn't command the pitch, throwing an average changeup at 84-86 but not the curveball that has helped him strike out 32 of the 56 left-handed hitters he's faced this year, allowing two walks, four singles, and three doubles to the other 24. It looked like Cleveland has done a little maintenance work on the delivery so he's not so horribly long in back, although he still doesn't repeat it well enough for average fastball command.
• I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast. Also with a brief showing, James Paxton (Seattle) threw all fastballs -- impressive at 93-96 with good extension out front, but it would have been nice to see some offspeed stuff.
• I've mentioned concerns about Julio Teheran's breaking ball before, and it was true yesterday too. You saw slow rotation and very early break that hitters will pick up; it's less advanced than Alvarez's, for example, although Teheran is taller, looser, and younger, so he still has top-end projection.
• Tyler Thornburg (Milwaukee) was 92-94 and really drives the ball down well from a very high arm slot, one you rarely see on a starter, but given his short stature he needs to do that to get good downhill plane on the pitch. The curveball was average at 78-81 but he didn't show anything else. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I would rather see the Brewers promote him to the majors and stick him right in the pen than trade a prospect or two to get 15 innings from some veteran reliever down the stretch.
• I was also asked about Brad Peacock (Washington), who has posted outstanding numbers as a starter in Double-A this year after looking more like a one-pitch reliever in the Fall League last year. Peacock was 91-94 with an average curveball (he calls it a knuckle-curve, which isn't great news since so few pitchers can command that pitch) at 73-76 with break somewhere between 12/6 and 11/5. He threw one changeup at 81 mph, running it in to a right-handed hitter. He's a smaller guy with a lot of effort who really has to work to repeat his delivery at all and probably projects as a pen guy despite the knockout performance in the Eastern League.
• The group of hitters wasn't as impressive as the arms, which reflects the situation in the minors as a whole right now. The MVP was shortstop Grant Green (Oakland), who put a very good swing on a two-strike fastball for a double over the left fielder's head, and showed in general a compact approach where he was short to the ball but didn't get great extension. He's a big, athletic kid who hasn't hit for power since his sophomore year of college, and this swing isn't going to produce it.
• Jurickson Profar (Texas) was the youngest player (1 in the game and went up there to get his hacks, putting the first pitch in play in each of his two at bats, popping one out and driving a triple to deep left center on a 91 mph fastball. He looked overanxious in BP too, but did manage to square up an average fastball and showed off his ability to run and instincts.
• Will Middlebrooks (Boston) gets very good extension on his swing and has very good bat speed, although he loads his hands pretty deep creating some unnecessary length. He looked a little raw once the game started, struggling on defense and hitting two balls on the ground, but did stay with a curveball from Liam Hendriks, and he showed in BP that he gets good hip rotation and that extension I mentioned for above-average power.
One note on these velocities: Most of the pitchers you saw on Sunday were starters who were pitching one inning in what is essentially a showcase game. They didn't have to worry about pacing themselves, and many guys will try to air it out in a situation like that with the guns up and the cameras on. Most of the freakish velocities I'm mentioning would be more of the high end of a range for these guys as starters.
• Henderson Alvarez (Toronto) was 93-97 mph with a fringy curveball that had good two-plane break but lacked tight rotation; he didn't show the plus changeup but located the fastball well. There's some effort there, but he loads his hips to the point where the hitter can see the Z in "Alvarez" and he also generates tremendous torque to get his arm accelerated. I don't know why he doesn't miss more bats, but plus fastball/plus changeup/fringy curveball is still a mid-rotation or better starter in the long term.
• Drew Pomeranz was 93-95 but didn't command the pitch, throwing an average changeup at 84-86 but not the curveball that has helped him strike out 32 of the 56 left-handed hitters he's faced this year, allowing two walks, four singles, and three doubles to the other 24. It looked like Cleveland has done a little maintenance work on the delivery so he's not so horribly long in back, although he still doesn't repeat it well enough for average fastball command.
• I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast. Also with a brief showing, James Paxton (Seattle) threw all fastballs -- impressive at 93-96 with good extension out front, but it would have been nice to see some offspeed stuff.
• I've mentioned concerns about Julio Teheran's breaking ball before, and it was true yesterday too. You saw slow rotation and very early break that hitters will pick up; it's less advanced than Alvarez's, for example, although Teheran is taller, looser, and younger, so he still has top-end projection.
• Tyler Thornburg (Milwaukee) was 92-94 and really drives the ball down well from a very high arm slot, one you rarely see on a starter, but given his short stature he needs to do that to get good downhill plane on the pitch. The curveball was average at 78-81 but he didn't show anything else. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I would rather see the Brewers promote him to the majors and stick him right in the pen than trade a prospect or two to get 15 innings from some veteran reliever down the stretch.
• I was also asked about Brad Peacock (Washington), who has posted outstanding numbers as a starter in Double-A this year after looking more like a one-pitch reliever in the Fall League last year. Peacock was 91-94 with an average curveball (he calls it a knuckle-curve, which isn't great news since so few pitchers can command that pitch) at 73-76 with break somewhere between 12/6 and 11/5. He threw one changeup at 81 mph, running it in to a right-handed hitter. He's a smaller guy with a lot of effort who really has to work to repeat his delivery at all and probably projects as a pen guy despite the knockout performance in the Eastern League.
• The group of hitters wasn't as impressive as the arms, which reflects the situation in the minors as a whole right now. The MVP was shortstop Grant Green (Oakland), who put a very good swing on a two-strike fastball for a double over the left fielder's head, and showed in general a compact approach where he was short to the ball but didn't get great extension. He's a big, athletic kid who hasn't hit for power since his sophomore year of college, and this swing isn't going to produce it.
• Jurickson Profar (Texas) was the youngest player (1
in the game and went up there to get his hacks, putting the first pitch in play in each of his two at bats, popping one out and driving a triple to deep left center on a 91 mph fastball. He looked overanxious in BP too, but did manage to square up an average fastball and showed off his ability to run and instincts.• Will Middlebrooks (Boston) gets very good extension on his swing and has very good bat speed, although he loads his hands pretty deep creating some unnecessary length. He looked a little raw once the game started, struggling on defense and hitting two balls on the ground, but did stay with a curveball from Liam Hendriks, and he showed in BP that he gets good hip rotation and that extension I mentioned for above-average power.
Five AL trades to make.
Spoiler [+]
With the trade deadline fast approaching and nine of the 14 American League teams within six games of a playoff spot, the door is open for multiple trades between now and July 31, plus a few waiver deals in August. We're going to ignore the inevitable disappointment that hits every July when few impact deals are made. Instead, let's cook up five trades that could give a lift to this year's contenders.
Texas Rangers trade Tanner Scheppers and Michael Kirkman to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran
A sample of 30-some lucky games aside, Endy Chavez isn't a championship-caliber center fielder. The Rangers' recent success and new 20-year, $3 billion(!) TV deal has turned the team into the high-revenue powerhouse it should have been all these years. That means they can afford to upgrade, and very well might upgrade, even if it means paying some serious bucks to do so. Beltran is in the final year of a seven-year deal that pays him $18.5 million this year, so even if he gets dealt right near the non-waiver deadline, he'll be owed about $6 million -- a sum that'll be too rich for many teams to handle.
Some questions need to be answered, such as whether Josh Hamilton could slide back to center field for the stretch run and be effective there, but there's no questioning Beltran's ability when healthy. The 34-year-old is hitting .288/.375/.506 in a pitcher's park and playing plus defense in a corner outfield slot. The Mets will also likely be happy to shed $6 million-plus in payroll. Acquiring power arms like Scheppers and Kirkman would sweeten the deal considerably, especially if Scheppers is fully recovered from past shoulder troubles and more recent back issues, and if Kirkman can refine his command. If the Rangers pick up all of Beltran's remaining salary, it's possible he could cost a little less, too.
New York Yankees trade Eduardo Nunez to the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard
The Yankees are a strong bet to make the playoffs whether or not they do anything at the trade deadline. And Billy Beane isn't the only person to note the randomness that can occur during the playoffs (even if he's the only one to use excrement to make that point). Still, a healthy Bedard would be a clear upgrade over at least one Yankees pitcher, whether it's Phil Hughes trying to round back into form, or one of the Yankees' scrap-heap finds.
Bedard's 3.00 ERA would rank second in the Yankees' rotation, and his 3.27 xFIP would rank third; he could be a playoff starter on this staff. Left-handed starters like Bedard can be a plus given Yankee Stadium's easy-to-reach right-field porch, and Bedard is much better than your garden-variety lefty, with a career strikeout rate just under a batter an inning and a strikeout-to-walk rate better than 3-to-1 this year. As always, health is the concern with Bedard -- he's expected back from his latest ailment, a knee injury, after the All-Star break.
Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position. Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option.
One thing to keep in mind is that Nunez often fills in at third base. Were a deal to get done, look for it to happen very close to the July 31 deadline to give Alex Rodriguez time to heal from his knee surgery and to avoid overexposing the next guy behind Nunez on the Yankees' third base depth depth chart, Ramiro Pena.
Cleveland Indians trade Nick Weglarz to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Hiroki Kuroda and $2 million
His record looks ugly thanks to the sixth-worst run support in baseball, but Kuroda has put up another solid season, with a 3.06 ERA, 3.66 xFIP and strikeout-to-walk rate of nearly 3-to-1. The 36-year-old's pinpoint control (just over two walks allowed per nine innings for his career) bodes well for his succeeding outside Dodger Stadium, even if he's not top-of-the-rotation material. He doesn't have to be for the Tribe, who have innings concerns with young pitchers like Carlos Carrasco and regression concerns with unlikely success stories like Josh Tomlin, and mostly need a veteran who can offer 12 to 15 starts of slightly above-average performance. Kuroda's making $12 million this year, so the Indians could benefit from the Dodgers sending some cash back.
The 23-year-old Weglarz has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, and his defense is shaky. But he's also a legitimate on-base threat with power, something the Dodgers sorely need. James Loney isn't much better than replacement level and existing prospects like Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson are talented, but not sure things. Adding another candidate for the future first base or left field job would be a coup for a team that probably won't do anything more exciting than this for the rest of this season … on the field anyway.
Detroit Tigers trade Wade Gaynor and Bruce Rondon to the Chicago Cubs for Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood and $4 million
Brandon Inge has been one of the worst everyday players in all of baseball, "hitting" .186/.253/.255. Meanwhile, Ramirez might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now, posting a 1.435 OPS so far this month to overcome a slow start.
It gets complicated with Ramirez's contract, though. He'd be owed about $5 million for the rest of this year if he gets dealt near the deadline. Meanwhile, his $16 million club option would become a player option if he gets dealt, likely putting the Tigers on the hook for that salary -- as well as the $6 million they'll still owe Inge after this year. Still, Ramirez could provide a big boost for one of baseball's most top-heavy lineups, making the Tigers potential favorites to win the AL Central. The Cubs' willingness to handle some of the financial burden could make or break any Ramirez deal. Adding Wood, who struggles at times to find the strike zone but improves the Tigers' bullpen depth, could further expedite a trade.
On the other side, Gaynor's having an off-year after an impressive 2010, but he was a 20-20 player in college who could emerge as an everyday major league third baseman with further development. Rondon is a two-pitch reliever with iffy control but big-time strikeout potential.
Los Angeles Angels trade Fabio Martinez Mesa and Trevor Reckling to the San Diego Padres for Heath Bell
This is a team with the cognitive dissonance to believe that four years and $81 million for Vernon Wells is a good idea, and that Jeff Mathis' pitcher-like offense is adequate given his defensive skills. Even in those two cases, the Angels could easily use internal options like Mike Trout and Hank Conger to address the problem. That leaves the bullpen as the most likely area to upgrade. Like most American League contenders, the Angels are set at the closer position, with rookie Jordan Walden doing an excellent job. But the pen gets thin after veteran lefty Scott Downs and strikeout-reaper Rich Thompson. Bell could be the final piece to a sneakily scary Angels team, especially if they make the playoffs: Good luck scoring runs against Jered Weaver and Dan Haren in the first seven innings, or Bell and Walden in the last two … assuming Bell's performance and declining peripherals hold up away from Petco Park, that is.
Martinez Mesa cooks with gas and led the Midwest League in strikeouts last year, but he also struggles mightily with command and is on the mend from a shoulder injury. Getting a potential Carlos Marmol plus a moderate-upside starter for two months of Heath Bell seems a favorable return, even if Bell ends up qualifying for Type A free agent status at year's end.
Texas Rangers trade Tanner Scheppers and Michael Kirkman to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran
A sample of 30-some lucky games aside, Endy Chavez isn't a championship-caliber center fielder. The Rangers' recent success and new 20-year, $3 billion(!) TV deal has turned the team into the high-revenue powerhouse it should have been all these years. That means they can afford to upgrade, and very well might upgrade, even if it means paying some serious bucks to do so. Beltran is in the final year of a seven-year deal that pays him $18.5 million this year, so even if he gets dealt right near the non-waiver deadline, he'll be owed about $6 million -- a sum that'll be too rich for many teams to handle.
Some questions need to be answered, such as whether Josh Hamilton could slide back to center field for the stretch run and be effective there, but there's no questioning Beltran's ability when healthy. The 34-year-old is hitting .288/.375/.506 in a pitcher's park and playing plus defense in a corner outfield slot. The Mets will also likely be happy to shed $6 million-plus in payroll. Acquiring power arms like Scheppers and Kirkman would sweeten the deal considerably, especially if Scheppers is fully recovered from past shoulder troubles and more recent back issues, and if Kirkman can refine his command. If the Rangers pick up all of Beltran's remaining salary, it's possible he could cost a little less, too.
New York Yankees trade Eduardo Nunez to the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard
The Yankees are a strong bet to make the playoffs whether or not they do anything at the trade deadline. And Billy Beane isn't the only person to note the randomness that can occur during the playoffs (even if he's the only one to use excrement to make that point). Still, a healthy Bedard would be a clear upgrade over at least one Yankees pitcher, whether it's Phil Hughes trying to round back into form, or one of the Yankees' scrap-heap finds.
Bedard's 3.00 ERA would rank second in the Yankees' rotation, and his 3.27 xFIP would rank third; he could be a playoff starter on this staff. Left-handed starters like Bedard can be a plus given Yankee Stadium's easy-to-reach right-field porch, and Bedard is much better than your garden-variety lefty, with a career strikeout rate just under a batter an inning and a strikeout-to-walk rate better than 3-to-1 this year. As always, health is the concern with Bedard -- he's expected back from his latest ailment, a knee injury, after the All-Star break.
Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position. Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option.
One thing to keep in mind is that Nunez often fills in at third base. Were a deal to get done, look for it to happen very close to the July 31 deadline to give Alex Rodriguez time to heal from his knee surgery and to avoid overexposing the next guy behind Nunez on the Yankees' third base depth depth chart, Ramiro Pena.
Cleveland Indians trade Nick Weglarz to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Hiroki Kuroda and $2 million
His record looks ugly thanks to the sixth-worst run support in baseball, but Kuroda has put up another solid season, with a 3.06 ERA, 3.66 xFIP and strikeout-to-walk rate of nearly 3-to-1. The 36-year-old's pinpoint control (just over two walks allowed per nine innings for his career) bodes well for his succeeding outside Dodger Stadium, even if he's not top-of-the-rotation material. He doesn't have to be for the Tribe, who have innings concerns with young pitchers like Carlos Carrasco and regression concerns with unlikely success stories like Josh Tomlin, and mostly need a veteran who can offer 12 to 15 starts of slightly above-average performance. Kuroda's making $12 million this year, so the Indians could benefit from the Dodgers sending some cash back.
The 23-year-old Weglarz has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, and his defense is shaky. But he's also a legitimate on-base threat with power, something the Dodgers sorely need. James Loney isn't much better than replacement level and existing prospects like Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson are talented, but not sure things. Adding another candidate for the future first base or left field job would be a coup for a team that probably won't do anything more exciting than this for the rest of this season … on the field anyway.
Detroit Tigers trade Wade Gaynor and Bruce Rondon to the Chicago Cubs for Aramis Ramirez, Kerry Wood and $4 million
Brandon Inge has been one of the worst everyday players in all of baseball, "hitting" .186/.253/.255. Meanwhile, Ramirez might be the hottest hitter in baseball right now, posting a 1.435 OPS so far this month to overcome a slow start.
It gets complicated with Ramirez's contract, though. He'd be owed about $5 million for the rest of this year if he gets dealt near the deadline. Meanwhile, his $16 million club option would become a player option if he gets dealt, likely putting the Tigers on the hook for that salary -- as well as the $6 million they'll still owe Inge after this year. Still, Ramirez could provide a big boost for one of baseball's most top-heavy lineups, making the Tigers potential favorites to win the AL Central. The Cubs' willingness to handle some of the financial burden could make or break any Ramirez deal. Adding Wood, who struggles at times to find the strike zone but improves the Tigers' bullpen depth, could further expedite a trade.
On the other side, Gaynor's having an off-year after an impressive 2010, but he was a 20-20 player in college who could emerge as an everyday major league third baseman with further development. Rondon is a two-pitch reliever with iffy control but big-time strikeout potential.
Los Angeles Angels trade Fabio Martinez Mesa and Trevor Reckling to the San Diego Padres for Heath Bell
This is a team with the cognitive dissonance to believe that four years and $81 million for Vernon Wells is a good idea, and that Jeff Mathis' pitcher-like offense is adequate given his defensive skills. Even in those two cases, the Angels could easily use internal options like Mike Trout and Hank Conger to address the problem. That leaves the bullpen as the most likely area to upgrade. Like most American League contenders, the Angels are set at the closer position, with rookie Jordan Walden doing an excellent job. But the pen gets thin after veteran lefty Scott Downs and strikeout-reaper Rich Thompson. Bell could be the final piece to a sneakily scary Angels team, especially if they make the playoffs: Good luck scoring runs against Jered Weaver and Dan Haren in the first seven innings, or Bell and Walden in the last two … assuming Bell's performance and declining peripherals hold up away from Petco Park, that is.
Martinez Mesa cooks with gas and led the Midwest League in strikeouts last year, but he also struggles mightily with command and is on the mend from a shoulder injury. Getting a potential Carlos Marmol plus a moderate-upside starter for two months of Heath Bell seems a favorable return, even if Bell ends up qualifying for Type A free agent status at year's end.
Five NL trades to make.
Spoiler [+]
Once the final out is recorded in Tuesday night's All-Star Game, the baseball world will shift its attention to MLB's next big event: the July 31 trade deadline. As far as Insider is concerned, it's never too early to start talking about the deals the might be made.
In the National League, there are a dozen teams that can make a case for being contenders, though we know that a couple of those clubs (such as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals) would need a lot of rationalizing in order to do so. And although it would be easy to count out the Colorado Rockies, they've shown a remarkable ability to shine in the second half, so they can't be counted out. Therefore, if we disregard the Mets and Nats, that leaves us with 10 contenders in the Senior Circuit. Of that group, only the Philadelphia Phillies feel like a stone-cold lock for the postseason, and even they could use a couple of upgrades.
So what kind of moves can we expect to see from the contenders? I'm not smart enough to predict the future, but I can tell you that these five trades make too much sense not to happen.
Cincinnati Reds trade Yonder Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles for J.J. Hardy
In case you haven't noticed, the Reds have a serious problem at shortstop. Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria have gotten the bulk of the at-bats there, and both have an OPS below .580. As Dave Cameron pointed out recently, J.J. Hardy has been putting together an excellent season, and although the O's have hinted they want to re-sign him, they should be focusing on getting younger. Enter Alonso.
He's a first baseman by trade, but he's blocked in Cincy by Joey Votto. The Reds have had the 24-year-old Alonso playing some left field for Triple-A Louisville, but that's the baseball equivalent of jamming a square peg in a round hole. The O's don't have a long-term solution at first, and Alonso, who's hitting .298/.372/.490, would fit perfectly there.
The Reds are a win-now team and have outscored opponents by 29 runs despite being two games under .500. The NL Central is wide open, and Hardy could help put them over the top. And even they don't re-sign Hardy, they have Zack Cozart ready to take over next year. Cozart is about to turn 26 years old and won't be a star, but he could be a decent regular for a couple of years.
San Francisco Giants trade Franciso Peguero to Minnesota Twins for Michael Cuddyer
It's possible that the Giants will decide to bask in the glow of their 2010 title and not bother with a mid-season upgrade, but this club is in desperate need of some offense. If they get a bat or two, they can repeat.
The Twins need to start looking to the future, and Cuddyer, who's 32 and a free agent after this year, probably isn't a part of it. He's an ideal NL player because he can play first base or right field, as well as second or third in a pinch. Therefore, he would give manager Bruce Bochy a ton of flexibility on double switches. Also, Cuddyer has the extra special veteran glow the Giants so desperately covet.
Peguero, who Keith Law ranked as the Giants' No. 4 prospect in the preseason, missed the first couple of months of the season with a knee injury. The 23-year-old has posted an .849 OPS since his recent promotion to Double-A, and would be a good return for a free-agent-to-be such as Cuddyer.
Philadelphia Phillies trade Jarred Cosart to the Houston Astros for Hunter Pence
Pence could also make sense for the Giants (and Cuddyer for the Phils), but Astros GM Ed Wade served as Phillies GM from 1998 to 2005 and traded them Roy Oswalt last July, so Houston and Philly are natural trading partners.
The Phillies could really use a right-handed bat, particularly in the outfield, to balance out their left-leaning lineup. Pence won't be a free agent for another year and a half, so he wouldn't be a half-season rental. Therefore, the Phils would need to give up their top pitching prospect in order to get him. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and years away from competing. They've already shown a willingness to deal their "name" players, when they moved Oswalt and Lance Berkman at last year's deadline. Pence is good, but not good enough to build the franchise around, and should be moved for a younger, cheaper player.
Carlos Beltran would also be a fit for the Phillies or Giants, but it's unlikely the New York Mets would want to trade him to their division rival.
Arizona Diamondbacks trade Matt Davidson and A.J. Pollock to the Oakland Athletics for Gio Gonzalez
Discount the D-backs at your own risk. Not only are they three games behind the Giants for first place in the NL West, but their run differential is just one run worse. However, they need some pitching, as their starting pitcher FIP (4.00) ranks 11th in the NL. Gonzalez has some control issues, but he's one of the most consistent strikeout pitchers in the game and would be a huge upgrade for Arizona's staff for this year and beyond. And that's why the price is so steep: Gonzalez will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this year and won't be a free agent for three more years, so Arizona would have him under control for a while.
Why does Oakland do this deal? Because they haven't been able to put together an even average offense in years and desperately need some promising young position players. Both third baseman Davidson and center fielder Pollock are recent first-round picks and would give the A's a much-needed boost of offensive potential. With Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Miguel Montero, the D-backs have a strong core of players who are young enough to keep them in contention for awhile. Adding Gonzalez to the mix would boost that effort immediately and into the future.
Milwaukee Brewers trade any number of warm bodies to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Rafael Furcal
When the Brewers gutted their farm system last winter in trades for Shawn Marcum and Zack Greinke, the message was clear: We want to win now. However, running Yuniesky Betancourt out out at shortstop night in and night out runs directly counter to that plan.
Betancourt has an OPS+ of 74 in more than 1,400 plate appearances over the last three seasons and might be the worst everyday player in baseball. (Spare me the "he's an excellent defender" talk. Although there is reason to be skeptical of defensive metrics, every single one says Betancourt is awful on defense.)
The good news for the Brew Crew is that it won't be hard to upgrade at that position. As noted, Milwaukee's farm system is threadbare, but that's why the Los Angeles Dodgers are the perfect trading partner -- they're desperate to cut salary.
Furcal is making $10 million, and the Dodgers, who you may have heard are in some financial trouble, can save around $4 million if they trade him in the next couple of weeks. Furcal hasn't been playing particularly well since his return from the DL, but his track record suggests he would be a major upgrade over Betancourt and he shouldn't cost that much in talent to acquire, so any middling prospect should do. Furcal does have a limited no-trade clause and can block deals to specific teams. However, considering the shape of the Dodgers, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't agree to go play for a contender for a couple of months.
In the National League, there are a dozen teams that can make a case for being contenders, though we know that a couple of those clubs (such as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals) would need a lot of rationalizing in order to do so. And although it would be easy to count out the Colorado Rockies, they've shown a remarkable ability to shine in the second half, so they can't be counted out. Therefore, if we disregard the Mets and Nats, that leaves us with 10 contenders in the Senior Circuit. Of that group, only the Philadelphia Phillies feel like a stone-cold lock for the postseason, and even they could use a couple of upgrades.
So what kind of moves can we expect to see from the contenders? I'm not smart enough to predict the future, but I can tell you that these five trades make too much sense not to happen.
Cincinnati Reds trade Yonder Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles for J.J. Hardy
In case you haven't noticed, the Reds have a serious problem at shortstop. Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria have gotten the bulk of the at-bats there, and both have an OPS below .580. As Dave Cameron pointed out recently, J.J. Hardy has been putting together an excellent season, and although the O's have hinted they want to re-sign him, they should be focusing on getting younger. Enter Alonso.
He's a first baseman by trade, but he's blocked in Cincy by Joey Votto. The Reds have had the 24-year-old Alonso playing some left field for Triple-A Louisville, but that's the baseball equivalent of jamming a square peg in a round hole. The O's don't have a long-term solution at first, and Alonso, who's hitting .298/.372/.490, would fit perfectly there.
The Reds are a win-now team and have outscored opponents by 29 runs despite being two games under .500. The NL Central is wide open, and Hardy could help put them over the top. And even they don't re-sign Hardy, they have Zack Cozart ready to take over next year. Cozart is about to turn 26 years old and won't be a star, but he could be a decent regular for a couple of years.
San Francisco Giants trade Franciso Peguero to Minnesota Twins for Michael Cuddyer
It's possible that the Giants will decide to bask in the glow of their 2010 title and not bother with a mid-season upgrade, but this club is in desperate need of some offense. If they get a bat or two, they can repeat.
The Twins need to start looking to the future, and Cuddyer, who's 32 and a free agent after this year, probably isn't a part of it. He's an ideal NL player because he can play first base or right field, as well as second or third in a pinch. Therefore, he would give manager Bruce Bochy a ton of flexibility on double switches. Also, Cuddyer has the extra special veteran glow the Giants so desperately covet.
Peguero, who Keith Law ranked as the Giants' No. 4 prospect in the preseason, missed the first couple of months of the season with a knee injury. The 23-year-old has posted an .849 OPS since his recent promotion to Double-A, and would be a good return for a free-agent-to-be such as Cuddyer.
Philadelphia Phillies trade Jarred Cosart to the Houston Astros for Hunter Pence
Pence could also make sense for the Giants (and Cuddyer for the Phils), but Astros GM Ed Wade served as Phillies GM from 1998 to 2005 and traded them Roy Oswalt last July, so Houston and Philly are natural trading partners.
The Phillies could really use a right-handed bat, particularly in the outfield, to balance out their left-leaning lineup. Pence won't be a free agent for another year and a half, so he wouldn't be a half-season rental. Therefore, the Phils would need to give up their top pitching prospect in order to get him. The Astros are the worst team in baseball and years away from competing. They've already shown a willingness to deal their "name" players, when they moved Oswalt and Lance Berkman at last year's deadline. Pence is good, but not good enough to build the franchise around, and should be moved for a younger, cheaper player.
Carlos Beltran would also be a fit for the Phillies or Giants, but it's unlikely the New York Mets would want to trade him to their division rival.
Arizona Diamondbacks trade Matt Davidson and A.J. Pollock to the Oakland Athletics for Gio Gonzalez
Discount the D-backs at your own risk. Not only are they three games behind the Giants for first place in the NL West, but their run differential is just one run worse. However, they need some pitching, as their starting pitcher FIP (4.00) ranks 11th in the NL. Gonzalez has some control issues, but he's one of the most consistent strikeout pitchers in the game and would be a huge upgrade for Arizona's staff for this year and beyond. And that's why the price is so steep: Gonzalez will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this year and won't be a free agent for three more years, so Arizona would have him under control for a while.
Why does Oakland do this deal? Because they haven't been able to put together an even average offense in years and desperately need some promising young position players. Both third baseman Davidson and center fielder Pollock are recent first-round picks and would give the A's a much-needed boost of offensive potential. With Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Miguel Montero, the D-backs have a strong core of players who are young enough to keep them in contention for awhile. Adding Gonzalez to the mix would boost that effort immediately and into the future.
Milwaukee Brewers trade any number of warm bodies to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Rafael Furcal
When the Brewers gutted their farm system last winter in trades for Shawn Marcum and Zack Greinke, the message was clear: We want to win now. However, running Yuniesky Betancourt out out at shortstop night in and night out runs directly counter to that plan.
Betancourt has an OPS+ of 74 in more than 1,400 plate appearances over the last three seasons and might be the worst everyday player in baseball. (Spare me the "he's an excellent defender" talk. Although there is reason to be skeptical of defensive metrics, every single one says Betancourt is awful on defense.)
The good news for the Brew Crew is that it won't be hard to upgrade at that position. As noted, Milwaukee's farm system is threadbare, but that's why the Los Angeles Dodgers are the perfect trading partner -- they're desperate to cut salary.
Furcal is making $10 million, and the Dodgers, who you may have heard are in some financial trouble, can save around $4 million if they trade him in the next couple of weeks. Furcal hasn't been playing particularly well since his return from the DL, but his track record suggests he would be a major upgrade over Betancourt and he shouldn't cost that much in talent to acquire, so any middling prospect should do. Furcal does have a limited no-trade clause and can block deals to specific teams. However, considering the shape of the Dodgers, it's hard to imagine he wouldn't agree to go play for a contender for a couple of months.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Boras won't talk Ellsbury deal[/h3]
9:52AM ET
[h5]Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox [/h5]
Agent Scott Boras put the kibosh on any chance of the Boston Red Sox negotiating an in-season deal with Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
"These things are offseason discussions," Boras told the Boston Herald. "Whenever people ask me midseason about contracts, you have to make sure the player finishes the season. Only then is it the right point."
Even an offseason deal would by no means be a guarantee with Boras, who often has his clients test the free agent waters. Ellsbury, who is batting .316 with 11 homers and 28 stolen bases, is under Red Sox control through the 2013 season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards shopping Rasmus?[/h3]
9:40AM ET
[h5]Colby Rasmus | Cardinals [/h5]
The St. Louis Cardinals have managed to stay afloat in the National League Central despite a rash of injuries. A team that has used the disabled list 15 times this season is willing to deal, and the trade bait might include the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Over the next three weeks the Cardinals hope to move aggressively to acquire a pitcher to bolster the back end of its starting rotation or to give the bullpen a jolt. The main bargaining chip could be the previously unavailable Rasmus, who is closing in on arbitration and has shown erratic development as a center fielder. But even with his stock down slightly, Rasmus (.264 BA) could still bring back solid value.
Strauss hears that GM John Mozeliak be willing to call on long-standing interest from the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, who could use another bat.
A trade of Rasmus could indicate the Cardinals are willing to hand the center field job over to Jon Jay, at least temporarily.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jacob Turner close to The Show?[/h3]
9:23AM ET
[h5]Detroit Tigers [/h5]
Jacob Turner got a brief glimpse of the spotlight when he retired two batters for Team USA in the ninth inning of Sunday's Futures Game. That may be only a warm-up act for the 2009 first-round draft choice, who could be pitching for the Detroit Tigers by next week.
The Tigers sent starting pitcher Charlie Furbush to the minors after he got knocked out early Saturday night. John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes that could open the door for Turner, whose next start might be a week from Wednesday in Detroit against Oakland.
The Tigers, like a host of other teams, are looking for starting pitching as the deadline draw nears. Another option is to stay in house with the 20-year-old Turner, who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a host of no-decisions at Double-A Erie.
Our Keith Law gives his take on what he saw from Turner, as well as other prospects, in Sunday's Futures Game:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Futures Game Part II
"I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast."
9:52AM ET
[h5]Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox [/h5]
Agent Scott Boras put the kibosh on any chance of the Boston Red Sox negotiating an in-season deal with Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
"These things are offseason discussions," Boras told the Boston Herald. "Whenever people ask me midseason about contracts, you have to make sure the player finishes the season. Only then is it the right point."
Even an offseason deal would by no means be a guarantee with Boras, who often has his clients test the free agent waters. Ellsbury, who is batting .316 with 11 homers and 28 stolen bases, is under Red Sox control through the 2013 season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cards shopping Rasmus?[/h3]
9:40AM ET
[h5]Colby Rasmus | Cardinals [/h5]
The St. Louis Cardinals have managed to stay afloat in the National League Central despite a rash of injuries. A team that has used the disabled list 15 times this season is willing to deal, and the trade bait might include the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, reports Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch.
Over the next three weeks the Cardinals hope to move aggressively to acquire a pitcher to bolster the back end of its starting rotation or to give the bullpen a jolt. The main bargaining chip could be the previously unavailable Rasmus, who is closing in on arbitration and has shown erratic development as a center fielder. But even with his stock down slightly, Rasmus (.264 BA) could still bring back solid value.
Strauss hears that GM John Mozeliak be willing to call on long-standing interest from the pitching-rich Tampa Bay Rays, who could use another bat.
A trade of Rasmus could indicate the Cardinals are willing to hand the center field job over to Jon Jay, at least temporarily.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jacob Turner close to The Show?[/h3]
9:23AM ET
[h5]Detroit Tigers [/h5]
Jacob Turner got a brief glimpse of the spotlight when he retired two batters for Team USA in the ninth inning of Sunday's Futures Game. That may be only a warm-up act for the 2009 first-round draft choice, who could be pitching for the Detroit Tigers by next week.
The Tigers sent starting pitcher Charlie Furbush to the minors after he got knocked out early Saturday night. John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes that could open the door for Turner, whose next start might be a week from Wednesday in Detroit against Oakland.
The Tigers, like a host of other teams, are looking for starting pitching as the deadline draw nears. Another option is to stay in house with the 20-year-old Turner, who is 3-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a host of no-decisions at Double-A Erie.
Our Keith Law gives his take on what he saw from Turner, as well as other prospects, in Sunday's Futures Game:
- Doug Mittler
Futures Game Part II
"I was asked about both Jacob Turner (Detroit) and Matt Harvey (Mets), but neither pitched much as they split the ninth inning; Turner in particular didn't have feel for his curveball, and it's normally better than what you saw on the broadcast."
8:10AM ET
[h5]Carlos Beltran | Mets [/h5]
When the New York Mets were in San Francisco last weekend, there was plenty of buzz on how Carlos Beltran would be a nice fit in AT&T Park.
Beltran has moved on to Phoenix for the All-Star Game, and while there has been no talk of him landing with the D-backs, the outfielder was quite candid about possibly ending up across the country in Boston.
Beltran said it would be a no-brainer to OK a deal to the Red Sox should he be asked to do so.
As for San Francisco, the Giants have been searching for an offensive jolt even before http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30112/buster-poseyBuster Posey went down for the season, and the Giants have the pitching surplus the Mets would covet.
The Giants have so far have refused to budge on dealing a pitcher such as http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28472/jonathan-sanchezJonathan Sanchez, but GM Brian Sabean tells Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News that he and his staff recently began to make contact with trade targets, having conversations with an estimated 15 teams to gauge their willingness to deal.
Could we have a match? Kevin Kernan of the New York Post reported Thursday that the Mets are beginning to take calls on Beltran.
The July 31 trade deadline is less of a barrier to a Beltran deal. He could be dealt in August in a waiver deal since few teams would put in a claim on a player who makes $18.5 million this season.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Could Hardy end up being traded?[/h3]
7:54AM ET
[h5]J.J. Hardy | Orioles [/h5]
There was talk in mid-June that the Baltimore Orioles held internal discussions about a potential contract extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy and that they hoped to initiate contract talks with Hardy's agent before the All-Star break.
The All-Star break is finally here, and Hardy tells Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun he is confident a deal can be reached during the mini-vacation.
If a deal can't get done, don't be surprised if Hardy is used as a major trade chip. The Reds and Brewers are clubs that could use upgrades at short.
ESPN Insider's Matt Meyers suggests a deal that would send Hardy to the Reds for Yonder Alonso:
- Doug Mittler
Hardy to the Reds for Alonso
http://[h3]Could Bedard land in the Bronx?[/h3]
7:43AM ET
[h5]Erik Bedard | Mariners [/h5]
The Mariners saw a bargaining chip decline in value when Erik Bedard landed on the disabled list earlier this month, and the rate of return may have diminished further.
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times writes that Bedard won't return to the mound any sooner than Seattle's July 22-24 series in Boston.
Bedard would then be making just a pair of starts prior to the July 31 deadline. Given Bedard?s injury history, that might not be enough time for potential suitors to ascertain whether the lefthander still is damaged goods.
Baker brings up the valuable lesson of Jarrod Washburn, who was acquired by Detroit from Seattle two summers ago and was a disaster down the stretch due to knee problems.
Jonah Keri of FanGraphs suggested Monday that one feasible deal is for the Mariners to ship Bedard to the Yankees for infielder Eduardo Nunez.
"Given the combination of positives (track record of success, dirt-cheap salary) and negatives (health) here, a top-tier prospect in return is a stretch. M's GM Jack Zduriencik has expressed interest in Nunez in the past, and the 24-year-old shortstop has posted a .752 OPS this season, which is excellent for that position," Keri writes. "Brandon Laird, a slugging third baseman who hit 23 homers in 107 games at Double-A last year and could play an outfield corner, could also be an option."
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Izzy didn't plead with Alderson to stay[/h3]
7:32AM ET
[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]
UPDATE: While Isringhausen's preference is to stay in Queens, he was irate about a headline suggesting he had pleaded with Alderson not to trade him. "I never [bleeping] said one thing about, 'Please don't trade me,'" Isringhausen told Mike Puma of the New York Post.
--
If Jason Isringhausen has his way, it would be to play out the season with the New York Mets.
Andy Martino of the NY Daily News reported last week the Mets are working to sell a trio of relievers, including Francisco Rodriguez as well as setup man Isringhausen and lefthanded specialist http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3910/tim-byrdakTim Byrdak.
Martino reports Monday that when the 38-year-old Isringhausen became aware of the trade winds, the reliever went to Sandy Alderson and told the general manager his preference was to stay in the Big Apple. While he certainly might still trade Isringhausen, Alderson said Sunday that he would consider the veteran's comments.
Isringhausen has taken over the eighth inning role for the Mets and would be a valuable addition to a playoff contender. The problem is the Mets are on the fringe of contention themselves, but staying there would be difficult without Izzy.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pirates look for catching help[/h3]
7:22AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
With Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder on the disabled list, the Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for catching help. It turns out the Bucs' pursuit may have been going on for months.
A report on FoxSports.com says the Pirates and Angels engaged in serious talks earlier this season about a trade that would have sent outfielder/first baseman Garrett Jones to Anaheim and catcher Jeff Mathis to Pittsburgh. The discussions reportedly ended after Pirates officials decided they couldn't part with Jones' bat.
The surprisingly competitive Bucs are currently using a catching tandem of Michael McKenry and Eric Fryer. It doesn't help the Pirates that they are competing for catching help with the Giants, who are looking for a replacement for the injured Buster Posey.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]MLB irked at Jeter?[/h3]
7:07AM ET
[h5]Derek Jeter | Yankees [/h5]
The selection process for the All-Star Game has the distinct feel of the Pro Bowl, where a host of players elected to pass up the honor for a few days of rest of relaxation. Those players, of course, will still cash any bonus check that comes with an All-Star selection.
The most prominent of the absentees is Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who recorded his 3,000th hit. Mark Feinsand of the NY Daily News says among those disappointed were Major League Baseball officials, who were hoping Jeter would fly out Tuesday, appear on the field during player introductions, tip his cap and then return to New York. "This could have been a celebration of his 3,000th hit," the official said. "He didn't have to play."
According to a report on FoxSports.com, Jeter will not be attending the festivities because of "emotional and physical exhaustion" from his pursuit of 3,000 hits.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Staying away from LA[/h3]
6:51AM ET
[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]
Even if the bankrupt Los Angeles Dodgers somehow come up with the available cash this winter, the turmoil surrounding the franchise may be enough to scare some players away.
Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Dodgers talked to some potential free agents who said off-the-field issues such as ownership and the front office would be considered before signing with the Dodgers. Prince Fielder, Michael Cuddyer and C.J. Wilson were among those expressing at least some skepticism.
Translation: Frank McCourt (if he is still around) will have to pay a premium to get any notable free agent to come to Chavez Ravine.
While Padres closer Heath Bell said he would consider the Dodgers, he sounded an alarm about the flood of empty seats at Dodger Stadium.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Bell to Angels, Phillies?[/h3]
6:29AM ET
[h5]Heath Bell | Padres [/h5]
The market for relief help is expected to be strong, and it's no secret that the top prize should be San Diego closer Heath Bell. The Padres have slid into last place in the National League West and our Buster Olney wrote recently that Bell might be one of the few difference-makers available.
Nick Cafardo outlined several trade scenarios for Bell in Sunday's Boston Globe. Start with the Yankees, who could be making inquiries given the losses of setup men Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain, and the elbow issues that have bothered Mariano Rivera.
Cafardo cites a major league source who says the Rays are also interested, and they are able to offer a good package of young players. The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies also are believed to be keeping a close eye on Bell, who has 26 saves this season.
The Padres could be hurt by a crowded relief market. Teams may be reluctant to pay a high price for Bell and could go for a less costly alternative such as Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes or Mike Gonzalez.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets that his poll of executives has Bell landing in Philadelphia, despite reports that Philly isn't in the market to add salary.
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Bell to Angels for two prospects
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#Dbacks have been told they will not be asked to move to the AL West in realignment, sources said. Houston will move. FOXSportsArizona.com
#Dbacks have been told they will not be asked to move to the AL West in realignment, sources said. Houston will move. FOXSportsArizona.com
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#Dbacks have been told they will not be asked to move to the AL West in realignment, sources said. Houston will move. FOXSportsArizona.com
#Dbacks have been told they will not be asked to move to the AL West in realignment, sources said. Houston will move. FOXSportsArizona.com
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GreenNGold89
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