2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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I thought it was a very entertaining ASG. There were some really memorable moments in this one:

-Prince's bomb
-Bautista's catch
-Pence hosing Bautista
-Bell's entrance
-Panda's double (homer)
-Wilson's save (homer)

Even the cleats were awesome. Great night.
 
I thought it was a very entertaining ASG. There were some really memorable moments in this one:

-Prince's bomb
-Bautista's catch
-Pence hosing Bautista
-Bell's entrance
-Panda's double (homer)
-Wilson's save (homer)

Even the cleats were awesome. Great night.
 
Heath Bell doing the entrance from Angels In The Outfield
laugh.gif
 
[h1]Presenting Your 2011 Un-Stars[/h1]
By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor

GYI0065096747_extra_large_large.jpg


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Jul 13, 2011 - Okay, so it seems like every major leaguer with a pulse wound up being labeled an "All-Star" ... but there were actually some regulars who, despite Major League Baseball's best efforts, just couldn't quite squeeze onto one of the All-Star rosters. Which is a real shame, except it gives us an opportunity to construct of team of baseball's worst every-day players this season (which isn't the same as baseball's worst players, period; just more fun) ...

C: Miguel Olivo
Olivo's really not so terrible. Sure, his .265 on-base percentage is a living rally-killer. But he co-leads the Mariners with 12 home runs, and his .397 slugging percentage ranks second on the squad. There just aren't many catchers who play almost every day, and Olivo's been the worst of the small group. (If you're really looking for a catcher who can't hit, there's always Jeff Mathis. I mean, always.)

DH: Adam Dunn
Go figure. One of Major League Baseball's most consistent hitters is suffering through the worst (by far) season of his career, and nobody knows why.

Dishonorable Mentions: Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero

1B: Aubrey Huff
Most of the players here aren't bad players, at all; they are, like Dunn and Aubrey Huff, pretty good players having pretty awful seasons. If there were just awful players, their teams would likely have given up on them weeks or months ago. A year ago, Aubrey Huff was the best hitter on a team that won the World Series. Sure, Huff might have been a little over his head. But nobody could have remotely guessed that he would drop from .290/.385/.506 to .236/.290/.361 (so far). The slightly scary thing is that Huff did hit almost exactly this poorly in 2009, coming off an outstanding 2008.

Dishonorable Mentions: Lyle Overbay, James Loney, Derek Lee

2B: Dan Uggla
Then there's Dan Uggla -- by the way, did you know Uggla means owl in the Klingon language? -- who got $62 million from the Braves last winter, and has rewarded Atlanta's largesse with what's easily the worst season of his career, the highlights including a .185 batting average that shows absolutely no signs of going anywhere soon.

Dishonorable Mentions: Orlando Cabrera, Aaron Hill, Omar Infante



SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
Then there's Yuniesky Betancourt, who's working on a four-year streak of being among the very worst every-day players in the majors. What makes Yuni so special is that he's a lousy hitter and a lousy fielder, which is usually a combination that gets you a new (and lesser-paying) job, but somehow Betancourt keeps fooling people. Hey, it's good work if you can get it.

Dishonorable Mentions: Cliff Pennington, Miguel Tejada

3B: Chone Figgins
Disaster, thy name is Chone. After Figgins' breakout season in 2009, the Mariners signed Figgins for four years and $36 million. In 2010, he became Seattle's every-day second baseman and his numbers fell way off (though, it should be said, they looked an awful lot like his 2008 numbers). A blip, perhaps? Or perhaps an adjustment issue to his new city and (sorta) new position? Apparently not. In 2010, Figgins was not good. In 2011, he's been execrable. It's all good, though ... only two more years after this one.

Dishonorable Mentions: Chris Johnson, Casey McGehee, Brandon Inge

LF: Raul Ibañez
The good news is that Ibañez got off to a lousy start last season, too; a year ago at the break, the Phillies' left fielder was sitting at .243/.326/.397, but went .309/.375/.494 to finish the season with respectable numbers. The bad news is two-fold: 1) Ibañez is having another lousy first half, almost exactly as lousy as last year's, and 2) at 39, he seems less likely to bounce back than he did a year ago. Actually, there's one more fold of bad news: Ibañez is still owed roughly $5 million for the rest of this season, which makes it all the more difficult to bench him or release him.

Dishonorable Mention: Juan Pierre

CF: Alex Rios
Yes, the White Sox have two players on this list, which goes a long way toward explaining why they're just ninth in the American League in scoring despite what was supposedly to be a power-packed lineup. And this isn't a short-term issue, with Rios owed $12.5 million in both 2012 and '13.

Dishonorable Mention: Chris Coghlan

RF: Ichiro Suzuki
Yes, a month ago I thought Ichiro was going to turn things around. No, it hasn't happened yet. Ichiro entered this season with a .331 career batting average; this season he's batting .270. Ichiro entered this season with a .376 career on-base percentage; this season it's just .317. Last year the Mariners scored only 513 runs, which was some sort of record. This year they're on pace for 535 runs, which would establish some sort of two-year record. And they're going to do it, too, unless Ichiro somehow returns to being Ichiro!

Dishonorable Mentions: Jayson Werth, David DeJesus

SP: Bronson Arroyo
Arroyo's never been a star, but he's almost always been effective. And generally consistent. His numbers in 2009 and '10 included (virtually) the same ERAs (3.84/3.88), HR/9 (1.3/1.2), walks per nine innings (2.7/2.5) and strikeouts per nine (5.0/5.3). And this year? His ERA has skyrocketed to 5.45, thanks largely to having given up 25 home runs in 108 innings. Granted, it looks like Arroyo's been victimized mostly by poor luck -- in the form of more fly balls happening to fly over the fence -- but those fly balls count, and so they've counted against Arroyo's ERA.

Dishonorable Mentions: Wade Davis, James McDonald, Tyler Chatwood

Read More: Aubrey Huff (1B - SFG), Adam Dunn (DH - CWS), Dan Uggla (2B - ATL), Miguel Olivo (C - SEA), Chone Figgins (3B - SEA), Jeff Mathis (C - ANA), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS - MIL), Seattle Mariners

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[h1]Presenting Your 2011 Un-Stars[/h1]
By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor

GYI0065096747_extra_large_large.jpg


Tweet

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Jul 13, 2011 - Okay, so it seems like every major leaguer with a pulse wound up being labeled an "All-Star" ... but there were actually some regulars who, despite Major League Baseball's best efforts, just couldn't quite squeeze onto one of the All-Star rosters. Which is a real shame, except it gives us an opportunity to construct of team of baseball's worst every-day players this season (which isn't the same as baseball's worst players, period; just more fun) ...

C: Miguel Olivo
Olivo's really not so terrible. Sure, his .265 on-base percentage is a living rally-killer. But he co-leads the Mariners with 12 home runs, and his .397 slugging percentage ranks second on the squad. There just aren't many catchers who play almost every day, and Olivo's been the worst of the small group. (If you're really looking for a catcher who can't hit, there's always Jeff Mathis. I mean, always.)

DH: Adam Dunn
Go figure. One of Major League Baseball's most consistent hitters is suffering through the worst (by far) season of his career, and nobody knows why.

Dishonorable Mentions: Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero

1B: Aubrey Huff
Most of the players here aren't bad players, at all; they are, like Dunn and Aubrey Huff, pretty good players having pretty awful seasons. If there were just awful players, their teams would likely have given up on them weeks or months ago. A year ago, Aubrey Huff was the best hitter on a team that won the World Series. Sure, Huff might have been a little over his head. But nobody could have remotely guessed that he would drop from .290/.385/.506 to .236/.290/.361 (so far). The slightly scary thing is that Huff did hit almost exactly this poorly in 2009, coming off an outstanding 2008.

Dishonorable Mentions: Lyle Overbay, James Loney, Derek Lee

2B: Dan Uggla
Then there's Dan Uggla -- by the way, did you know Uggla means owl in the Klingon language? -- who got $62 million from the Braves last winter, and has rewarded Atlanta's largesse with what's easily the worst season of his career, the highlights including a .185 batting average that shows absolutely no signs of going anywhere soon.

Dishonorable Mentions: Orlando Cabrera, Aaron Hill, Omar Infante



SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
Then there's Yuniesky Betancourt, who's working on a four-year streak of being among the very worst every-day players in the majors. What makes Yuni so special is that he's a lousy hitter and a lousy fielder, which is usually a combination that gets you a new (and lesser-paying) job, but somehow Betancourt keeps fooling people. Hey, it's good work if you can get it.

Dishonorable Mentions: Cliff Pennington, Miguel Tejada

3B: Chone Figgins
Disaster, thy name is Chone. After Figgins' breakout season in 2009, the Mariners signed Figgins for four years and $36 million. In 2010, he became Seattle's every-day second baseman and his numbers fell way off (though, it should be said, they looked an awful lot like his 2008 numbers). A blip, perhaps? Or perhaps an adjustment issue to his new city and (sorta) new position? Apparently not. In 2010, Figgins was not good. In 2011, he's been execrable. It's all good, though ... only two more years after this one.

Dishonorable Mentions: Chris Johnson, Casey McGehee, Brandon Inge

LF: Raul Ibañez
The good news is that Ibañez got off to a lousy start last season, too; a year ago at the break, the Phillies' left fielder was sitting at .243/.326/.397, but went .309/.375/.494 to finish the season with respectable numbers. The bad news is two-fold: 1) Ibañez is having another lousy first half, almost exactly as lousy as last year's, and 2) at 39, he seems less likely to bounce back than he did a year ago. Actually, there's one more fold of bad news: Ibañez is still owed roughly $5 million for the rest of this season, which makes it all the more difficult to bench him or release him.

Dishonorable Mention: Juan Pierre

CF: Alex Rios
Yes, the White Sox have two players on this list, which goes a long way toward explaining why they're just ninth in the American League in scoring despite what was supposedly to be a power-packed lineup. And this isn't a short-term issue, with Rios owed $12.5 million in both 2012 and '13.

Dishonorable Mention: Chris Coghlan

RF: Ichiro Suzuki
Yes, a month ago I thought Ichiro was going to turn things around. No, it hasn't happened yet. Ichiro entered this season with a .331 career batting average; this season he's batting .270. Ichiro entered this season with a .376 career on-base percentage; this season it's just .317. Last year the Mariners scored only 513 runs, which was some sort of record. This year they're on pace for 535 runs, which would establish some sort of two-year record. And they're going to do it, too, unless Ichiro somehow returns to being Ichiro!

Dishonorable Mentions: Jayson Werth, David DeJesus

SP: Bronson Arroyo
Arroyo's never been a star, but he's almost always been effective. And generally consistent. His numbers in 2009 and '10 included (virtually) the same ERAs (3.84/3.88), HR/9 (1.3/1.2), walks per nine innings (2.7/2.5) and strikeouts per nine (5.0/5.3). And this year? His ERA has skyrocketed to 5.45, thanks largely to having given up 25 home runs in 108 innings. Granted, it looks like Arroyo's been victimized mostly by poor luck -- in the form of more fly balls happening to fly over the fence -- but those fly balls count, and so they've counted against Arroyo's ERA.

Dishonorable Mentions: Wade Davis, James McDonald, Tyler Chatwood

Read More: Aubrey Huff (1B - SFG), Adam Dunn (DH - CWS), Dan Uggla (2B - ATL), Miguel Olivo (C - SEA), Chone Figgins (3B - SEA), Jeff Mathis (C - ANA), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS - MIL), Seattle Mariners

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The Brewers big gamble.

Spoiler [+]
Even under the best of circumstances, RP Francisco Rodriguez, acquired late Tuesday night from the New York Mets, wouldn't be worth more than a win to the Milwaukee Brewers over the rest of the season. But he's an odd fit for Milwaukee that makes it likely he'll be worth less than that.

Rodriguez is generating the highest ground-ball rate of his career, but is heading to a team with below-average defenders at three of its four infield spots. And he's allowing more balls in play overall this year with a career-low strikeout rate, meaning there will be more chances for Milwaukee's below-average defense (they're also weak in the outfield corners) to convert those balls in play into hits. If the Brewers were set on acquiring a reliever, they should have gone after one who misses more bats, rather than a guy who used to do that but hasn't done so this year.

As for the cost to the Brewers, all we know right now is that they're on the hook for at least $3.5 million, the value of Rodriguez's buyout, but could end up paying him the full $17.5 million next year based on a vesting clause in the reliever's contract that kicks in at 55 games closed -- he is currently at 34.

That alone is an awfully steep price to pay for maybe an added win in 2011, but they're also sending two players to be named to the Mets, and it could make this even worse if either of those players is a decent prospect.

Milwaukee's system is depleted right now, but they do have players who project to have some major league value, from Wily Peralta to Tyler Thornburg to Khris Davis (who needs a promotion to Double-A). Even one of those would be too much to give up on top of the money they owe Rodriguez.

The Mets come out looking pretty good, ridding themselves of that option, its buyout and a headache that threatened to affect how Terry Collins ran his bullpen. If they can also land a useful prospect or two in the bargain, so much the better.

Bautista's historic season.

Spoiler [+]
Pitchers on 29 teams got a welcome respite in June, as Jose Bautista returned to mortality, hitting only .258/.405/.430 with four home runs for the month. If anyone thought that Joey Bats and his brutal assault on hurlers had run its course, Bautista's .395/.455/1.000 with seven home runs in the first 10 games of July does a pretty good job at shattering that apparent misconception.

Now more than halfway through the season, we can seriously start to look at Bautista's year in a historical context. Perhaps the most amazing thing about Bautista's 2011 is that the continued decline in league offense actually serves to mask just how dominating he's been. Bautista's 1.170 OPS so far this season would, if the season ended today, leave him with the 34th-best single-season mark in baseball history. OPS+, kept by BaseballReference.com, goes a step farther and calculates league- and park-neutral OBP and SLG compared to league average. Once league and park are taken into account, Bautista's current OPS+ of 217 would rank 21st in MLB history.

Perhaps the most amazing thing is that this still underrates Bautista's domination as a hitter. As baseball evolves, the difference between the best and worst players has inevitably closed as the level of play has improved. These gaps tend to widen in the short term during expansion years and in years where the talent level clearly declined (most notably World War II).

[h4]Historic company[/h4]
Based on z-score, which is a player's standard deviations from the mean, Jose Bautista's 2011 season is among the 20 best of all time.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Z-Score[/th][/tr][tr][td]2004[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]10.693[/td][/tr][tr][td]2002[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]9.963[/td][/tr][tr][td]1920[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]9.898[/td][/tr][tr][td]1941[/td][td]Ted Williams[/td][td]9.325[/td][/tr][tr][td]1923[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]9.064[/td][/tr][tr][td]1921[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]8.980[/td][/tr][tr][td]2001[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]8.346[/td][/tr][tr][td]1924[/td][td]Rogers Hornsby[/td][td]7.865[/td][/tr][tr][td]1926[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.835[/td][/tr][tr][td]1925[/td][td]Rogers Hornsby[/td][td]7.822[/td][/tr][tr][td]1924[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.809[/td][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]7.518[/td][/tr][tr][td]1931[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.381[/td][/tr][tr][td]1957[/td][td]Ted Williams[/td][td]7.358[/td][/tr][tr][td]1927[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.352[/td][/tr][tr][td]1927[/td][td]Lou Gehrig[/td][td]7.291[/td][/tr][tr][td]1932[/td][td]Jimmie Foxx[/td][td]7.274[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Jose Bautista[/td][td]6.998[/td][/tr][tr][td]1930[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]6.787[/td][/tr][tr][td]1980[/td][td]George Brett[/td][td]6.683[/td][/tr][/table]

The effect this has is that putting up an extreme performance, whether positive or negative, becomes more difficult over time. You can get a visual impression of the concept by simply looking at Major League Baseball compared to lower leagues -- as you get to lower levels of play, you see more extreme performances, down through Triple-A and Double-A to college and high school, and eventually down to even little league. The difference between Justin Verlander and Fausto Carmona is much smaller than that between the best and worst high school player.

Now, baseball 80 years ago isn't the same as high school ball from a competitive standpoint, but there is a demonstrable gap in the levels of play. To attempt to correct for this, instead of calculating offensive performance as a percentage of league average, I went through history to calculate the z-score of every hitting performance in baseball history. A z-score is simply the number of standard deviations from the mean. I'm using park-neutral runs created per 27 outs (RC/27) for this exercise with stolen base information removed (we're looking at straight hitting here rather than entire offensive contribution).

By calculating performance in this manner, Bautista just edges into the top 20 batting performances of all time at 18th (see table). Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx are the players that combine for those 17 better seasons -- five inner-circle Hall of Famers, and a sixth who ought to be. If you look at just the past 50 years, Bautista's 2011 season ranks as the greatest hitting performance by anybody not named Barry Bonds.

Any way you slice it, Bautista's having one of the best hitting years that anybody reading this has seen or will ever see. Not bad for a journeyman utility player.

The Brewers go all-in.

Spoiler [+]
If the 2011 season was a poker game, the Milwaukee Brewers were the team that had already pushed its entire stack of prospect chips into the center of the table, knowing that Prince Fielder is probably going to depart as a free agent after this year, knowing they had a chance to win.

So it's as if Brewers owner Mark Attanasio -- the guy who has pushed Milwaukee's pile of chips -- reached into his back pocket and pulled out the deed to a time share in Maui and thrown it into the mix. The Brewers have raised the stakes in the NL Central, with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez.

Milwaukee will have to absorb at least the $3.5 million buyout on Rodriguez's 2012 contract -- at least. The Mets are basically picking up Rodriguez's salary for the rest of this season, or about $5 million, and will get two players to be named, and neither of them will be a major prospect; the Brewers, who have traded off minor leaguers repeatedly over the last five years in their effort to win, don't have a lot of prospects, according to rival general managers.

As GM Doug Melvin explained the other day over the phone, he had hoped to add a couple of bullpen pieces before the trade deadline. Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 20th in ERA, at 3.92, and the relief corps that manager Ron Roenicke has worked with has had some injury and inefficiency. Rodriguez has 23 saves and a 1.41 WHIP, which is the worst of his career, with the trend line consistent in its downward trajectory:

2002: 0.88
2003: 0.99
2004: 1.00
2005: 1.14
2006: 1.10
2007: 1.25
2008: 1.29
2009: 1.31
2010: 1.15
2011: 1.41

The major reason for the diminished numbers is that his pure stuff is diminished. He doesn't throw nearly as hard as he once did, and so he nibbles. But part of the reason is Rodriguez's approach to pitching in 2011: He never gives in. As a pitcher, Mets manager Terry Collins said of him Saturday, he is afraid of nothing -- not the hitter, nor the count, nor the score. He is going to throw exactly what pitch he wants to throw regardless of those factors, and Rodriguez will do everything he can to throw a pitch other than the cookie fastball when he's behind in the count. The man has 291 saves in the major leagues.

And interestingly, it is that history as a closer that makes the trade for Rodriguez an interesting gamble for the Brewers. K-Rod needs to finish only 21 more games in order to vest a 2012 option for $17.5 million and give him the highest salary for any closer in the history of the majors. Melvin was specific in saying that it will up to Roenicke in determining who will be the closer, and given how well Brewers closer John Axford has pitched, there is no reason for the Brewers to make a change now. Since allowing four runs in an ugly first outing this season, Axford has posted a 1.99 ERA, and overall, he's racked up 53 strikeouts in 41.1 innings. In theory, it'll be easy for Roenicke to say Axford is his closer and Rodriguez is his set-up man. In theory, it could be simple for the Brewers to steer around that $17.5 million option.

But the Brewers' acquisition of Rodriguez sets up a dynamic that is something like the New York Jets trading for Donovan McNabb to be the backup to Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Milwaukee has created a situation that is ripe for second-guessing and mounting pressure on Axford, and on Roenicke. If Axford slumps at all and the Brewers lose some games late, fans and media -- and maybe even players in the Milwaukee clubhouse -- will expect Roenicke to go for the natural alternative and call on one of the sport's most successful closers of the past decade.

Axford will now be closing games in K-Rod's significant shadow, and given his remarkable history of making adjustments and fighting through struggles to become a solid major league closer, he may well handle this kind of situation without a problem. But others have not. In the Brewers' admirable effort to create a bullpen safety net, they are running the risk of planting doubt.

Attanasio and Melvin are smart guys, and they know this; it's all part of the risk equation. They've just added an experienced, successful pitcher to a team that's already contending, and have done it despite having little in the way of prospects to offer. Their bet on themselves just got bigger. It was a somewhat stunning trade.

• The Mets have ensured themselves of not having Rodriguez's $17.5 option hanging over them, but the risk is not small for them, either. The dumping of their closer in the middle of what has been a surprisingly good season is going to anger some fans and will likely fuel the belief in some corners of the clubhouse that the front office really isn't devoted to winning now despite the surprising play of Collins' team.

Carlos Beltran doesn't have a contractual option for next season -- he is not coming back, which makes his situation different than that of Rodriguez. But the Rodriguez trade does signal that Mets GM Sandy Alderson is not going to make some Hail Mary attempt to chase down the Phillies or Braves. The deal of Rodriguez is a strong indication that Beltran is almost certainly going to be traded, which is good news for the Giants and other interested teams.

The trade of Rodriguez now -- and Beltran later -- would be part of a smart and conservative strategy. The Mets aren't as good as Philadelphia and Atlanta, and the last thing in the world that Collins and the team needs is a 10-week media countdown of Rodriguez's vesting option. Better to move on and go about the business of trying to build a team that can win, which is ultimately the only thing guaranteed to turn around the team's plummeting attendance and TV ratings.

This is the matter of the Mets backing up the truck, write Kevin Kernan and Dan Martin. Alderson had to make this deal, writes Joel Sherman. The trade of K-Rod was inevitable, writes John Harper.
[h3]All-Star Game notes[/h3]
• In between rounds of the Home Run Derby on Monday night, Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz peppered an MLB official with rules questions about the competition. If there needs to be a swing-off between players, would those home runs be counted for the teams, they asked. What determines who will go first, they asked. At one point, when Ortiz started to struggle in the first round, he and the Derby teammates he picked -- Gonzalez, Robinson Cano and Jose Bautista -- huddled near home plate. "We were talking about how David needed to hit one more homer," Gonzalez said, as he sat down after the huddle, "because that would mean that he'd at least tie. Two more homers, and the American League wins."

Ortiz's team wound up winning anyway, in a wipeout, and he and the others were totally into it, invested in each other. Every time Cano came to the plate, his Yankees teammates -- Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin and David Robertson -- gathered nearby and yelled out support. They even supported the National League guys. When Matt Kemp went homerless in his first seven swings, Gonzalez and Martin started screaming to Kemp, trying to get his attention; they wanted him to step out, take his time, take a drink and settle himself, rather than rush. After Kemp hit his first homer, Martin and the others were thrilled for him; they didn't want to see him shut out.

In the midst of the second round, Ortiz -- who had just been eliminated -- turned to me, raised his arms and shouted, "Look at my team!"

Ortiz's handling of this is something worth remembering, as baseball and the players' association consider badly needed changes for the All-Star Game going forward, to cope with rising numbers of All-Stars who decline to show up. Respected veterans should be chosen to serve All-Star captains -- not to pick all of the players for the team, but to reinforce, within the ranks of the players, the sense of responsibility and commitment toward each other. It's one thing to ignore a call from an MLB official or an agent asking you to attend to the All-Star Game, but it would be something very different if it was Albert Pujols or Gonzalez or Granderson on the other end of the line asking, out of respect for the other players.

• Bud Selig says he is firm about leaving his job after 2012. There are high-ranking executives throughout the sport who are convinced he will stay on.

• A sore knee kept Josh Beckett from participating in the All-Star Game, as Peter Abraham writes.

• Some All-Star Game notes, courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info:

All-Star Game MVPs, First Basemen
Price Fielder -- 2011
Fred McGriff -- 1994
Steve Garvey -- 1974, 1978
Willie McCovey -- 1969

Players who drove in 3+ Runs with a HR in the All-Star Game, last 35 seasons
Prince Fielder, Brewers -- 2011
Alfonso Soriano, Rangers -- 2004
Barry Bonds, Giants -- 1998
Will Clark, Giants -- 1992
Cal Ripken Jr., Orioles -- 1991
Fred Lynn, Angels -- 1983*
*grand slam

NEXT LEVEL: Fielder's home run traveled 410 feet. Eleven of his 22 home runs in the regular season have traveled at least 400 feet. The home run was hit to center field, where Fielder has hit just three of his 22 home runs this season. Fielder's home run was off Rangers left hander C.J. Wilson. This season, Fielder has four home runs against left-handed pitchers.

FROM ELIAS:

• Gonzalez's home run ended the NL's perfect game bid after 3 2/3 innings. It is the third time in All-Star Game history that a perfect game bid of that long was ended by a home run. The last occurrence was in 1980, when AL pitchers were perfect for 4 2/3 innings and Ken Griffey Sr. homered to break it up. It also happened in 1959. NL pitchers were perfect for 3 2/3 innings when Al Kaline homered.

• Gonzalez's home run was the first homer by either team in an All-Star Game since J.D. Drew in the seventh inning of the 2008 game, ending a drought of 206 at-bats in the All-Star Game without a home run.

• The fact that Gonzalez went yard against Cliff Lee shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Gonzalez owns a .538 (7-for-13) career batting average with a HR versus the Phillies left-hander, his fourth-highest average against an active pitcher with a minimum of 10 at-bats. In addition, only one active player has a higher career batting average versus Lee than Gonzalez (Rajai Davis: .545) with a minimum of 10 at-bats.

Tyler Clippard was the winning pitcher, after facing one batter. It's the second straight year a Nationals pitcher was the winning pitcher, as Matt Capps won last season. Both Clippard and Capps won by pitching one-third of an inning.

• Dean Stone in 1954 might have done Clippard one better -- he faced zero batters and got the ASG win. While Stone was on the mound, Red Schoendist was caught stealing home. Stone's AL team scored the go-ahead runs the next inning.

• Four pitchers have won an All-Star Game by pitching 1/3 of an inning: Capps, Clippard, Stone and Johnny Antonelli.

An interesting note on home-field advantage:

[h4]Making it count[/h4]
Since the All-Star Game began determining home-field advantage in the World Series, the home team has won five of eight times.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]ASG Winner[/th][th=""]World Series winner[/th][th=""]Series Result[/th][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]NL[/td][td]??[/td][td]??[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]NL[/td][td]NL -- Giants[/td][td]Def. Rangers, 4-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- Yankees[/td][td]Def. Phillies, 4-2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]AL[/td][td]NL -- Phillies[/td][td]Def. Rays, 4-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- Red Sox[/td][td]Def. Rockies, 4-0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2006[/td][td]AL[/td][td]NL -- Cardinals[/td][td]Def. Tigers, 4-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2005[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- White Sox[/td][td]Def. Astros, 4-0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2004[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- Red Sox[/td][td]Def. Cardinals, 4-0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]AL[/td][td]NL -- Marlins[/td][td]Def. Yankees, 4-2[/td][/tr][/table]

MORE NOTES FROM ELIAS:

• From 1984 through 2010 there was only one home run in the All-Star Game hit by a left-handed batter against a lefty pitcher: Jason Giambi off Billy Wagner at U.S. Cellular Field in 2003. But each of the two homers hit Tuesday night were that type: Gonzalez against Lee and Fielder off Wilson, making the 2011 All-Star Game the first in major league history with two such home runs. It's also worth remembering that the only grand slam in All-Star Game history was a lefty versus lefty clout: Lynn off Atlee Hammaker in 1983 at Comiskey Park.

• Fielder started at first base and batted cleanup Tuesday night, exactly as his father did for the American League in 1991. Cecil and Prince Fielder are one of four father-son pairs to each start in the All-Star Game, along with Bobby and Barry Bonds, and three generations of Boones (Ray, Bob and Bret). The Fielders are the first tandem to each start in the cleanup spot.
 
The Brewers big gamble.

Spoiler [+]
Even under the best of circumstances, RP Francisco Rodriguez, acquired late Tuesday night from the New York Mets, wouldn't be worth more than a win to the Milwaukee Brewers over the rest of the season. But he's an odd fit for Milwaukee that makes it likely he'll be worth less than that.

Rodriguez is generating the highest ground-ball rate of his career, but is heading to a team with below-average defenders at three of its four infield spots. And he's allowing more balls in play overall this year with a career-low strikeout rate, meaning there will be more chances for Milwaukee's below-average defense (they're also weak in the outfield corners) to convert those balls in play into hits. If the Brewers were set on acquiring a reliever, they should have gone after one who misses more bats, rather than a guy who used to do that but hasn't done so this year.

As for the cost to the Brewers, all we know right now is that they're on the hook for at least $3.5 million, the value of Rodriguez's buyout, but could end up paying him the full $17.5 million next year based on a vesting clause in the reliever's contract that kicks in at 55 games closed -- he is currently at 34.

That alone is an awfully steep price to pay for maybe an added win in 2011, but they're also sending two players to be named to the Mets, and it could make this even worse if either of those players is a decent prospect.

Milwaukee's system is depleted right now, but they do have players who project to have some major league value, from Wily Peralta to Tyler Thornburg to Khris Davis (who needs a promotion to Double-A). Even one of those would be too much to give up on top of the money they owe Rodriguez.

The Mets come out looking pretty good, ridding themselves of that option, its buyout and a headache that threatened to affect how Terry Collins ran his bullpen. If they can also land a useful prospect or two in the bargain, so much the better.

Bautista's historic season.

Spoiler [+]
Pitchers on 29 teams got a welcome respite in June, as Jose Bautista returned to mortality, hitting only .258/.405/.430 with four home runs for the month. If anyone thought that Joey Bats and his brutal assault on hurlers had run its course, Bautista's .395/.455/1.000 with seven home runs in the first 10 games of July does a pretty good job at shattering that apparent misconception.

Now more than halfway through the season, we can seriously start to look at Bautista's year in a historical context. Perhaps the most amazing thing about Bautista's 2011 is that the continued decline in league offense actually serves to mask just how dominating he's been. Bautista's 1.170 OPS so far this season would, if the season ended today, leave him with the 34th-best single-season mark in baseball history. OPS+, kept by BaseballReference.com, goes a step farther and calculates league- and park-neutral OBP and SLG compared to league average. Once league and park are taken into account, Bautista's current OPS+ of 217 would rank 21st in MLB history.

Perhaps the most amazing thing is that this still underrates Bautista's domination as a hitter. As baseball evolves, the difference between the best and worst players has inevitably closed as the level of play has improved. These gaps tend to widen in the short term during expansion years and in years where the talent level clearly declined (most notably World War II).

[h4]Historic company[/h4]
Based on z-score, which is a player's standard deviations from the mean, Jose Bautista's 2011 season is among the 20 best of all time.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Z-Score[/th][/tr][tr][td]2004[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]10.693[/td][/tr][tr][td]2002[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]9.963[/td][/tr][tr][td]1920[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]9.898[/td][/tr][tr][td]1941[/td][td]Ted Williams[/td][td]9.325[/td][/tr][tr][td]1923[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]9.064[/td][/tr][tr][td]1921[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]8.980[/td][/tr][tr][td]2001[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]8.346[/td][/tr][tr][td]1924[/td][td]Rogers Hornsby[/td][td]7.865[/td][/tr][tr][td]1926[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.835[/td][/tr][tr][td]1925[/td][td]Rogers Hornsby[/td][td]7.822[/td][/tr][tr][td]1924[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.809[/td][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]Barry Bonds[/td][td]7.518[/td][/tr][tr][td]1931[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.381[/td][/tr][tr][td]1957[/td][td]Ted Williams[/td][td]7.358[/td][/tr][tr][td]1927[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]7.352[/td][/tr][tr][td]1927[/td][td]Lou Gehrig[/td][td]7.291[/td][/tr][tr][td]1932[/td][td]Jimmie Foxx[/td][td]7.274[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]Jose Bautista[/td][td]6.998[/td][/tr][tr][td]1930[/td][td]Babe Ruth[/td][td]6.787[/td][/tr][tr][td]1980[/td][td]George Brett[/td][td]6.683[/td][/tr][/table]

The effect this has is that putting up an extreme performance, whether positive or negative, becomes more difficult over time. You can get a visual impression of the concept by simply looking at Major League Baseball compared to lower leagues -- as you get to lower levels of play, you see more extreme performances, down through Triple-A and Double-A to college and high school, and eventually down to even little league. The difference between Justin Verlander and Fausto Carmona is much smaller than that between the best and worst high school player.

Now, baseball 80 years ago isn't the same as high school ball from a competitive standpoint, but there is a demonstrable gap in the levels of play. To attempt to correct for this, instead of calculating offensive performance as a percentage of league average, I went through history to calculate the z-score of every hitting performance in baseball history. A z-score is simply the number of standard deviations from the mean. I'm using park-neutral runs created per 27 outs (RC/27) for this exercise with stolen base information removed (we're looking at straight hitting here rather than entire offensive contribution).

By calculating performance in this manner, Bautista just edges into the top 20 batting performances of all time at 18th (see table). Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx are the players that combine for those 17 better seasons -- five inner-circle Hall of Famers, and a sixth who ought to be. If you look at just the past 50 years, Bautista's 2011 season ranks as the greatest hitting performance by anybody not named Barry Bonds.

Any way you slice it, Bautista's having one of the best hitting years that anybody reading this has seen or will ever see. Not bad for a journeyman utility player.

The Brewers go all-in.

Spoiler [+]
If the 2011 season was a poker game, the Milwaukee Brewers were the team that had already pushed its entire stack of prospect chips into the center of the table, knowing that Prince Fielder is probably going to depart as a free agent after this year, knowing they had a chance to win.

So it's as if Brewers owner Mark Attanasio -- the guy who has pushed Milwaukee's pile of chips -- reached into his back pocket and pulled out the deed to a time share in Maui and thrown it into the mix. The Brewers have raised the stakes in the NL Central, with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez.

Milwaukee will have to absorb at least the $3.5 million buyout on Rodriguez's 2012 contract -- at least. The Mets are basically picking up Rodriguez's salary for the rest of this season, or about $5 million, and will get two players to be named, and neither of them will be a major prospect; the Brewers, who have traded off minor leaguers repeatedly over the last five years in their effort to win, don't have a lot of prospects, according to rival general managers.

As GM Doug Melvin explained the other day over the phone, he had hoped to add a couple of bullpen pieces before the trade deadline. Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 20th in ERA, at 3.92, and the relief corps that manager Ron Roenicke has worked with has had some injury and inefficiency. Rodriguez has 23 saves and a 1.41 WHIP, which is the worst of his career, with the trend line consistent in its downward trajectory:

2002: 0.88
2003: 0.99
2004: 1.00
2005: 1.14
2006: 1.10
2007: 1.25
2008: 1.29
2009: 1.31
2010: 1.15
2011: 1.41

The major reason for the diminished numbers is that his pure stuff is diminished. He doesn't throw nearly as hard as he once did, and so he nibbles. But part of the reason is Rodriguez's approach to pitching in 2011: He never gives in. As a pitcher, Mets manager Terry Collins said of him Saturday, he is afraid of nothing -- not the hitter, nor the count, nor the score. He is going to throw exactly what pitch he wants to throw regardless of those factors, and Rodriguez will do everything he can to throw a pitch other than the cookie fastball when he's behind in the count. The man has 291 saves in the major leagues.

And interestingly, it is that history as a closer that makes the trade for Rodriguez an interesting gamble for the Brewers. K-Rod needs to finish only 21 more games in order to vest a 2012 option for $17.5 million and give him the highest salary for any closer in the history of the majors. Melvin was specific in saying that it will up to Roenicke in determining who will be the closer, and given how well Brewers closer John Axford has pitched, there is no reason for the Brewers to make a change now. Since allowing four runs in an ugly first outing this season, Axford has posted a 1.99 ERA, and overall, he's racked up 53 strikeouts in 41.1 innings. In theory, it'll be easy for Roenicke to say Axford is his closer and Rodriguez is his set-up man. In theory, it could be simple for the Brewers to steer around that $17.5 million option.

But the Brewers' acquisition of Rodriguez sets up a dynamic that is something like the New York Jets trading for Donovan McNabb to be the backup to Mark Sanchez at quarterback. Milwaukee has created a situation that is ripe for second-guessing and mounting pressure on Axford, and on Roenicke. If Axford slumps at all and the Brewers lose some games late, fans and media -- and maybe even players in the Milwaukee clubhouse -- will expect Roenicke to go for the natural alternative and call on one of the sport's most successful closers of the past decade.

Axford will now be closing games in K-Rod's significant shadow, and given his remarkable history of making adjustments and fighting through struggles to become a solid major league closer, he may well handle this kind of situation without a problem. But others have not. In the Brewers' admirable effort to create a bullpen safety net, they are running the risk of planting doubt.

Attanasio and Melvin are smart guys, and they know this; it's all part of the risk equation. They've just added an experienced, successful pitcher to a team that's already contending, and have done it despite having little in the way of prospects to offer. Their bet on themselves just got bigger. It was a somewhat stunning trade.

• The Mets have ensured themselves of not having Rodriguez's $17.5 option hanging over them, but the risk is not small for them, either. The dumping of their closer in the middle of what has been a surprisingly good season is going to anger some fans and will likely fuel the belief in some corners of the clubhouse that the front office really isn't devoted to winning now despite the surprising play of Collins' team.

Carlos Beltran doesn't have a contractual option for next season -- he is not coming back, which makes his situation different than that of Rodriguez. But the Rodriguez trade does signal that Mets GM Sandy Alderson is not going to make some Hail Mary attempt to chase down the Phillies or Braves. The deal of Rodriguez is a strong indication that Beltran is almost certainly going to be traded, which is good news for the Giants and other interested teams.

The trade of Rodriguez now -- and Beltran later -- would be part of a smart and conservative strategy. The Mets aren't as good as Philadelphia and Atlanta, and the last thing in the world that Collins and the team needs is a 10-week media countdown of Rodriguez's vesting option. Better to move on and go about the business of trying to build a team that can win, which is ultimately the only thing guaranteed to turn around the team's plummeting attendance and TV ratings.

This is the matter of the Mets backing up the truck, write Kevin Kernan and Dan Martin. Alderson had to make this deal, writes Joel Sherman. The trade of K-Rod was inevitable, writes John Harper.
[h3]All-Star Game notes[/h3]
• In between rounds of the Home Run Derby on Monday night, Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz peppered an MLB official with rules questions about the competition. If there needs to be a swing-off between players, would those home runs be counted for the teams, they asked. What determines who will go first, they asked. At one point, when Ortiz started to struggle in the first round, he and the Derby teammates he picked -- Gonzalez, Robinson Cano and Jose Bautista -- huddled near home plate. "We were talking about how David needed to hit one more homer," Gonzalez said, as he sat down after the huddle, "because that would mean that he'd at least tie. Two more homers, and the American League wins."

Ortiz's team wound up winning anyway, in a wipeout, and he and the others were totally into it, invested in each other. Every time Cano came to the plate, his Yankees teammates -- Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin and David Robertson -- gathered nearby and yelled out support. They even supported the National League guys. When Matt Kemp went homerless in his first seven swings, Gonzalez and Martin started screaming to Kemp, trying to get his attention; they wanted him to step out, take his time, take a drink and settle himself, rather than rush. After Kemp hit his first homer, Martin and the others were thrilled for him; they didn't want to see him shut out.

In the midst of the second round, Ortiz -- who had just been eliminated -- turned to me, raised his arms and shouted, "Look at my team!"

Ortiz's handling of this is something worth remembering, as baseball and the players' association consider badly needed changes for the All-Star Game going forward, to cope with rising numbers of All-Stars who decline to show up. Respected veterans should be chosen to serve All-Star captains -- not to pick all of the players for the team, but to reinforce, within the ranks of the players, the sense of responsibility and commitment toward each other. It's one thing to ignore a call from an MLB official or an agent asking you to attend to the All-Star Game, but it would be something very different if it was Albert Pujols or Gonzalez or Granderson on the other end of the line asking, out of respect for the other players.

• Bud Selig says he is firm about leaving his job after 2012. There are high-ranking executives throughout the sport who are convinced he will stay on.

• A sore knee kept Josh Beckett from participating in the All-Star Game, as Peter Abraham writes.

• Some All-Star Game notes, courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info:

All-Star Game MVPs, First Basemen
Price Fielder -- 2011
Fred McGriff -- 1994
Steve Garvey -- 1974, 1978
Willie McCovey -- 1969

Players who drove in 3+ Runs with a HR in the All-Star Game, last 35 seasons
Prince Fielder, Brewers -- 2011
Alfonso Soriano, Rangers -- 2004
Barry Bonds, Giants -- 1998
Will Clark, Giants -- 1992
Cal Ripken Jr., Orioles -- 1991
Fred Lynn, Angels -- 1983*
*grand slam

NEXT LEVEL: Fielder's home run traveled 410 feet. Eleven of his 22 home runs in the regular season have traveled at least 400 feet. The home run was hit to center field, where Fielder has hit just three of his 22 home runs this season. Fielder's home run was off Rangers left hander C.J. Wilson. This season, Fielder has four home runs against left-handed pitchers.

FROM ELIAS:

• Gonzalez's home run ended the NL's perfect game bid after 3 2/3 innings. It is the third time in All-Star Game history that a perfect game bid of that long was ended by a home run. The last occurrence was in 1980, when AL pitchers were perfect for 4 2/3 innings and Ken Griffey Sr. homered to break it up. It also happened in 1959. NL pitchers were perfect for 3 2/3 innings when Al Kaline homered.

• Gonzalez's home run was the first homer by either team in an All-Star Game since J.D. Drew in the seventh inning of the 2008 game, ending a drought of 206 at-bats in the All-Star Game without a home run.

• The fact that Gonzalez went yard against Cliff Lee shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Gonzalez owns a .538 (7-for-13) career batting average with a HR versus the Phillies left-hander, his fourth-highest average against an active pitcher with a minimum of 10 at-bats. In addition, only one active player has a higher career batting average versus Lee than Gonzalez (Rajai Davis: .545) with a minimum of 10 at-bats.

Tyler Clippard was the winning pitcher, after facing one batter. It's the second straight year a Nationals pitcher was the winning pitcher, as Matt Capps won last season. Both Clippard and Capps won by pitching one-third of an inning.

• Dean Stone in 1954 might have done Clippard one better -- he faced zero batters and got the ASG win. While Stone was on the mound, Red Schoendist was caught stealing home. Stone's AL team scored the go-ahead runs the next inning.

• Four pitchers have won an All-Star Game by pitching 1/3 of an inning: Capps, Clippard, Stone and Johnny Antonelli.

An interesting note on home-field advantage:

[h4]Making it count[/h4]
Since the All-Star Game began determining home-field advantage in the World Series, the home team has won five of eight times.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]ASG Winner[/th][th=""]World Series winner[/th][th=""]Series Result[/th][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]NL[/td][td]??[/td][td]??[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]NL[/td][td]NL -- Giants[/td][td]Def. Rangers, 4-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- Yankees[/td][td]Def. Phillies, 4-2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2008[/td][td]AL[/td][td]NL -- Phillies[/td][td]Def. Rays, 4-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2007[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- Red Sox[/td][td]Def. Rockies, 4-0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2006[/td][td]AL[/td][td]NL -- Cardinals[/td][td]Def. Tigers, 4-1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2005[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- White Sox[/td][td]Def. Astros, 4-0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2004[/td][td]AL[/td][td]AL -- Red Sox[/td][td]Def. Cardinals, 4-0[/td][/tr][tr][td]2003[/td][td]AL[/td][td]NL -- Marlins[/td][td]Def. Yankees, 4-2[/td][/tr][/table]

MORE NOTES FROM ELIAS:

• From 1984 through 2010 there was only one home run in the All-Star Game hit by a left-handed batter against a lefty pitcher: Jason Giambi off Billy Wagner at U.S. Cellular Field in 2003. But each of the two homers hit Tuesday night were that type: Gonzalez against Lee and Fielder off Wilson, making the 2011 All-Star Game the first in major league history with two such home runs. It's also worth remembering that the only grand slam in All-Star Game history was a lefty versus lefty clout: Lynn off Atlee Hammaker in 1983 at Comiskey Park.

• Fielder started at first base and batted cleanup Tuesday night, exactly as his father did for the American League in 1991. Cecil and Prince Fielder are one of four father-son pairs to each start in the All-Star Game, along with Bobby and Barry Bonds, and three generations of Boones (Ray, Bob and Bret). The Fielders are the first tandem to each start in the cleanup spot.
 
Olivo is actually a big reason why the Mariners were able to compete in the first half. He had some timely hitting and his leadership value has gone a long way with this team.
 
Olivo is actually a big reason why the Mariners were able to compete in the first half. He had some timely hitting and his leadership value has gone a long way with this team.
 


[h5]FEATURE[/h5][h1]A Major-League Divorce[/h1][h2]Jamie and Frank McCourt moved to L.A. in 2004 to live their dream—as owners of the illustrious Dodgers—then went on a massive spending spree: $74 million on four homes, a $12 million pool, and a $10,000-a-month hairstylist. But though their team hit an initial winning streak, their marriage cratered. With their divorce producing a slew of unsavory financial details, Vanessa Grigoriadis learns why Major League Baseball is as furious as the McCourts are with each other.[/h2]
BY VANESSA GRIGORIADIS


Read More http://www.vanityfair.com/society/f...t-divorce-201108?printable=true#ixzz1S19r0uAh
 


[h5]FEATURE[/h5][h1]A Major-League Divorce[/h1][h2]Jamie and Frank McCourt moved to L.A. in 2004 to live their dream—as owners of the illustrious Dodgers—then went on a massive spending spree: $74 million on four homes, a $12 million pool, and a $10,000-a-month hairstylist. But though their team hit an initial winning streak, their marriage cratered. With their divorce producing a slew of unsavory financial details, Vanessa Grigoriadis learns why Major League Baseball is as furious as the McCourts are with each other.[/h2]
BY VANESSA GRIGORIADIS


Read More http://www.vanityfair.com/society/f...t-divorce-201108?printable=true#ixzz1S19r0uAh
 
Trade value #50-#31.

Spoiler [+]
After yesterday’s recap of last year’s list, and the lessons taken from it, we’re off to the races again with the 2011 Trade Value series.

To maintain transparency and avoid any kerfuffles this time around, I want to be clear that this column was inspired by Bill Simmons, who tackles this same topic for the NBA. Thanks for the fantastic idea, Bill.

Before we get to the last five spots on the list, let’s talk briefly about what question this list is attempting to answer. Trade value is not an easy thing to measure, and it differs for each team – the Yankees will be interested in an entirely different type of player than the Astros, for instance. Winning teams with high payrolls will give up prospects that rebuilding teams would never move, while for some teams a premium player with a salary to match just isn’t someone they’d be willing to add to their payroll. No teams will put the same value on the player, so we have to answer something a little more broad than “would this team trade Player A for Player B
 
Trade value #50-#31.

Spoiler [+]
After yesterday’s recap of last year’s list, and the lessons taken from it, we’re off to the races again with the 2011 Trade Value series.

To maintain transparency and avoid any kerfuffles this time around, I want to be clear that this column was inspired by Bill Simmons, who tackles this same topic for the NBA. Thanks for the fantastic idea, Bill.

Before we get to the last five spots on the list, let’s talk briefly about what question this list is attempting to answer. Trade value is not an easy thing to measure, and it differs for each team – the Yankees will be interested in an entirely different type of player than the Astros, for instance. Winning teams with high payrolls will give up prospects that rebuilding teams would never move, while for some teams a premium player with a salary to match just isn’t someone they’d be willing to add to their payroll. No teams will put the same value on the player, so we have to answer something a little more broad than “would this team trade Player A for Player B
 
Debunking the AL MVP.

Spoiler [+]
The baseball season still has two and a half months left of games to be played, but the bifurcation around the All Star Game often results in award discussions. The discussions tend to grow contentious when one player clearly stands out amongst the crop of candidates, but is passed over in lieu of a player with a more fitting narrative.

Right now, Jose Bautista is the most valuable player in the American League, not Adrian Gonzalez.

Bautista boasts a .334/.468/.702 line, and a gaudy .487 wOBA. He has launched 31 home runs in 84 games, and is on pace to hit right around 50 by the end of the season. He is walking in almost 20 percent of his plate appearances and has actually improved his strikeout rate. With average defense and plus-baserunning, it becomes difficult to point out any flaws in his game. Last year was clearly his breakout season, as he tallied 6.9 wins above replacement. In slightly over half of a season this year he has already produced 6.6 WAR, and very well may turn in one of the best seasons in the history of baseball.

Gonzalez is having a fantastic season, but one very clearly south of Bautista. The Red Sox first baseman has a higher batting average at .354, and a better fielding mark (albeit at an easier position), and that’s about it. His on-base percentage is 54 points lower. His .591 slugging percentage is 111 points lower. Put everything together and Gonzalez has a .429 wOBA, which would lead the league if not for the fact that Bautista’s mark is almost 60 points higher. Gonzalez is the best player in the American League outside of the Jose Bautista division, but there is a clear line of demarcation between he and Bautista.

Why are so many touting Gonzalez as the MVP of the first half? The arguments tend to boil down to the following areas: his quest for the batting title, the high RBI total, clutch performance, and the performance of the Red Sox as a team.

Only one of those is valid — the team performance — and an argument can be made that Bautista’s advantage on a singular player level is so vast that any disparity between the Red Sox and Blue Jays is negated.

Yes, Gonzalez has a league-leading 77 runs batted in. He also leads the league in batting average. Bautista has knocked in “only
 
Debunking the AL MVP.

Spoiler [+]
The baseball season still has two and a half months left of games to be played, but the bifurcation around the All Star Game often results in award discussions. The discussions tend to grow contentious when one player clearly stands out amongst the crop of candidates, but is passed over in lieu of a player with a more fitting narrative.

Right now, Jose Bautista is the most valuable player in the American League, not Adrian Gonzalez.

Bautista boasts a .334/.468/.702 line, and a gaudy .487 wOBA. He has launched 31 home runs in 84 games, and is on pace to hit right around 50 by the end of the season. He is walking in almost 20 percent of his plate appearances and has actually improved his strikeout rate. With average defense and plus-baserunning, it becomes difficult to point out any flaws in his game. Last year was clearly his breakout season, as he tallied 6.9 wins above replacement. In slightly over half of a season this year he has already produced 6.6 WAR, and very well may turn in one of the best seasons in the history of baseball.

Gonzalez is having a fantastic season, but one very clearly south of Bautista. The Red Sox first baseman has a higher batting average at .354, and a better fielding mark (albeit at an easier position), and that’s about it. His on-base percentage is 54 points lower. His .591 slugging percentage is 111 points lower. Put everything together and Gonzalez has a .429 wOBA, which would lead the league if not for the fact that Bautista’s mark is almost 60 points higher. Gonzalez is the best player in the American League outside of the Jose Bautista division, but there is a clear line of demarcation between he and Bautista.

Why are so many touting Gonzalez as the MVP of the first half? The arguments tend to boil down to the following areas: his quest for the batting title, the high RBI total, clutch performance, and the performance of the Red Sox as a team.

Only one of those is valid — the team performance — and an argument can be made that Bautista’s advantage on a singular player level is so vast that any disparity between the Red Sox and Blue Jays is negated.

Yes, Gonzalez has a league-leading 77 runs batted in. He also leads the league in batting average. Bautista has knocked in “only
 
The Marlins' home attendance is so bad that the team recentlyconceded that they have no hopes of filling their stadium at any pointfor the rest of the year: they've closed the upper deck of Sun Life Stadium,for reasons of cosmetics and pride — it will provide "a betterambience," said a team spokesman. But the real reason is that theydon't want to have to pay security personnel and support staff to covera part of the stadium that absolutely no one buys tickets for.

In fact, the upper deck had already been closed on weeknights, andwas only held open on Fridays and Saturdays, which the club is finallyputting a stop to. Instead, the team will just automatically upgradetheir upper deck season ticket holders to lower deck seats, and nuts toanyone who wants nosebleeds.
Yikes.

The Indians closed off the outfield sections of the upper deck for awhile, but not the whole damn thing. Attendance has picked up a little bit, luckily.
 
The Marlins' home attendance is so bad that the team recentlyconceded that they have no hopes of filling their stadium at any pointfor the rest of the year: they've closed the upper deck of Sun Life Stadium,for reasons of cosmetics and pride — it will provide "a betterambience," said a team spokesman. But the real reason is that theydon't want to have to pay security personnel and support staff to covera part of the stadium that absolutely no one buys tickets for.

In fact, the upper deck had already been closed on weeknights, andwas only held open on Fridays and Saturdays, which the club is finallyputting a stop to. Instead, the team will just automatically upgradetheir upper deck season ticket holders to lower deck seats, and nuts toanyone who wants nosebleeds.
Yikes.

The Indians closed off the outfield sections of the upper deck for awhile, but not the whole damn thing. Attendance has picked up a little bit, luckily.
 
^ Sure man, NP next time just shoot a PM IDK if they're still banning folks for requesting insider information.

Crazy about the Marlins.  They needed a winning/good year to draw fans since they're opening the new stadium next season.

Klaw's top 50 midseason prospects.

Spoiler [+]
With the Futures Game and more than half the minor league season in our rearview mirror, it's time to update the rankings of the top prospects in the minors.

This list doesn't include players who've graduated to the majors (Mike Trout, Domonic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, etc.), who have exhausted or are on pace to exhaust their rookie eligibility for 2012, and there are no 2011 draftees on this list because the draftees who might be good enough to make the list haven't signed yet.

As always, I emphasize upside and favor players with the potential to be stars at their positions or to pitch at the top of a rotation.

714Lawheader.jpg


1.jpg

Bryce Harper

OF

6-4

245

was.gif


Analysis: He's a future superstar with huge raw power and a constantly improving approach at the plate. And he won't turn 19 until October. Preseason Ranking: 2

2.jpg

Matt Moore

LHP

6-2

205

tam.gif


Analysis: He has three above-average to plus pitches and easy velocity, and has improved his control this year. All of that adds up to a No. 1 starter. Preseason Ranking: 16

3.jpg

Shelby Miller

RHP

6-1

190

stl.gif


Analysis: He's the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors with a plus fastball, above-average to plus curveball and much better changeup. Preseason Ranking: 9

4.jpg

Carlos Martinez

RHP

6-0

165

stl.gif


Analysis: Another easy velocity guy who'll touch 100 and has a plus breaking ball. A native of the Dominican Republic, he originally signed with Boston in 2009, but the deal was voided because of incomplete documentation. Just wait for the flurry of stories on how the Red Sox should still have Martinez's rights once he reaches the big leagues and turns into a star. Preseason Ranking: 52

5.jpg

Manny Machado

SS

6-3

185

bal.gif


Analysis: It wasn't clear how advanced (or raw) his approach was when he was drafted No. 3 in 2010, but it's clear now. He has an .816 OPS across two levels, and it's looking more likely that he'll stay at short than it did last year. Preseason Ranking: 26

6.jpg

Devin Mesoraco

C

6-1

220

cin.gif


Analysis: A major league-ready offensive catcher who can catch and throw well. A potential All-Star. Preseason Ranking: 31

7.jpg

Hak-Ju Lee

SS

6-2

170

tam.gif


Analysis: He's a four-tool player with fringy power who profiles as a plus defensive shortstop who can hit and run. Preseason Ranking: 49

8.jpg

Desmond Jennings

OF

6-2

200

tam.gif


Analysis: He'll get his 1,000th plate appearance in Triple-A at some point in the next 10 days. The tools are still there.Preseason Ranking: 20

9.jpg

Brett Lawrie

3B

6-0

213

tor.gif


Analysis: Lawrie hasn't played since May 31 after he was hit on the hand by a pitch just a day before he was going to be called up to the majors. He still profiles as an impact bat who might have to move to right field. Preseason Ranking: 37

10.jpg

Martin Perez

LHP

6-0

178

tex.gif


Analysis: His stuff is intact and still slightly ahead of results, but lefties with this kind of velocity and plus changeup are extremely valuable. Preseason Ranking: 18

11.jpg

Arodys Vizcaino

RHP

6-0

189

atl.gif


Analysis: Vizcaino would have been the talk of the Futures Game if it wasn't for Moore -- electric stuff, great arm speed, better breaking ball than expected. He just needs to stay healthy. Preseason Ranking: 47

12.jpg

Julio Teheran

RHP

6-2

150

atl.gif


Analysis: He's still very highly regarded in the industry, but I'd like to see some improvement on his curveball, which has been stagnant for two years. He's still just 20 years old. Preseason Ranking: 6

13.jpg

Jacob Turner

RHP

6-5

210

det.gif


Analysis: Turner has an electric arm and shows above-average control as a 20-year-old in the Double-A Eastern League. He could see the majors later this month and would outperform Charlie Furbush. Preseason Ranking: 22

14.jpg

Jameson Taillon

RHP

6-6

225

pit.gif


Analysis: He has a plus fastball, flashes a plus slider and has just eight walks on the season (though four came in his past two starts). The Pirates have been very cautious with his workload, and he hasn't faced more than 22 batters in any outing this season, which isn't great for future durability. Preseason Ranking: 30

15.jpg

Aaron Hicks

OF

6-2

185

min.gif


Analysis: Hicks got off to a horrible start, but is now hitting .294/.414/.447 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) since May 1. He's a true center fielder who projects to have above-average defense, a plus arm, the ability to get on base and more power once he gets out of the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Preseason Ranking: 10

16.jpg

Wil Myers

OF

6-3

190

kan.gif


Analysis: Myers can be a little mechanical at the plate with a stiff front leg. But he has a great overall approach and is a good enough athlete to be a defensive asset in right field. Preseason Ranking: 8

17.jpg

Jarred Cosart

RHP

6-3

180

phi.gif


Analysis: I was dismayed to see how much he throws across his body, but the fastball/curveball combo is worthy of the front of the rotation. Preseason Ranking: 34

18.jpg

Manny Banuelos

LHP

5-10

155

nyy.gif


Analysis: He struggled with his command early after looking so good in the fall and spring. He has four walks against 24 strikeouts in his past four outings (19 2/3 IP), and that's a positive sign. Preseason Ranking: 12

19.jpg

Jarrod Parker

RHP

6-1

180

ari.gif


Analysis: He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, but command has been slow to return after Tommy John surgery in late 2009. Preseason Ranking: 25

20.jpg

Travis D'Arnaud

C

6-2

195

tor.gif


Analysis: The offensive breakout finally happened this year with a .315/.388/.552 line in New Hampshire -- and he's actually been better on the road. It's All-Star production at that position if he can just stay healthy. Preseason Ranking: NR

21.jpg

Jesus Montero

C

6-4

225

nyy.gif


Analysis: His bat still hasn't really come around, although I have to believe the power and patience are all still in there. For a guy who projects as a first baseman or DH, though, .289/.346/.418 isn't an inspiring offensive performance given his history. Preseason Ranking: 4

22.jpg

Jurickson Profar

SS

5-11

165

tex.gif


Analysis: Profar is an incredibly instinctive player who can run, hit, get on base, play short and throw. Preseason Ranking: 81

23.jpg

Miguel Sano

3B

6-3

195

min.gif


Analysis: This 18-year-old projects as an impact bat at first base or in left field with big raw power. Weird stat quirk: He's a right-handed hitter but has a reverse split in 2011, hitting .311/.368/.607 against right-handed pitchers in 21 games for rookie-level Elizabethton. Preseason Ranking: 29

24.jpg

Jonathan Singleton

1B

6-2

215

phi.gif


Analysis: He began his pro career as a first baseman, but since he's blocked in the big leagues by Ryan Howard, the Phillies moved him to the outfield. He struggled with the switch and is now playing first again. He also had issues with some mechanical tweaks that have since been undone. Like Hicks, he gets on base at a great clip for his age (19), and his power may be held down by the FSL. Preseason Ranking: 27

25.jpg

Jean Segura

SS

5-11

155

laa.gif


Analysis: He hasn't played since the last update because of a hamstring strain, but I still like his combination of speed and ability to square up the ball. Preseason Ranking: 35

26.jpg

Matt Harvey

RHP

6-4

225

nym.gif


Analysis: His transition to Double-A hasn't gone smoothly (13 runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings so far) but is up to 97 mph with a chance for three above-average secondary pitches. Preseason Ranking: 83

27.jpg

Oswaldo Arcia

OF

6-0

210

min.gif


Analysis: I have to think he would have been in the Futures Game if he'd been healthy. He's hitting .300/.345/.480 in a tiny sample in high-A as a 20-year-old who projects to stay in right field. Preseason Ranking: 74

28.jpg

Tyler Skaggs

LHP

6-4

195

ari.gif


Analysis: The Futures Game wasn't a great showing for him -- he's usually more like 90-94 with a plus curveball, and there's still projection left in that body. Preseason Ranking: 78

29.jpg

Casey Kelly

RHP

6-2

215

sdg.gif


Analysis: At some point, the results are going to have to come closer to the stuff. His 4.21 ERA at Double-A is underwhelming.Preseason Ranking: 19

30.jpg

Taijuan Walker

RHP

6-4

195

sea.gif


Analysis: He's pitching at 94 and touching 97-plus, with feel and plus fastball command. He's a great athlete, too. Preseason Ranking: NR

31.jpg

Zack Wheeler

RHP

6-3

180

sfo.gif


Analysis: There's some thought he could end up in the 'pen because the fastball command isn't there, but he barely pitched last year, and the lack of repetitions may be a reason. It's No. 1 or 2 starter stuff. Preseason Ranking: 36

32.jpg

Mike Montgomery

LHP

6-5

180

kan.gif


Analysis: In a holding pattern here -- he could end up in the big leagues if resuming long-tossing really is the key, or he could drop 30-40 spots if he continues to struggle to throw strikes. Preseason Ranking: 28

33.jpg

Zach Lee

RHP

6-4

190

lad.gif


Analysis: Lee is still mostly about projection and athleticism, but he will flash an above-average fastball with good shape on the curveball. Preseason Ranking: 91

34.jpg

Dellin Betances

RHP

6-8

245

nyy.gif


Analysis: Betances is a physical monster who doesn't repeat his delivery well because he's not that athletic but is missing bats this year on raw stuff. Preseason Ranking: 73

35.jpg

Drew Pomeranz

RHP

6-5

231

cle.gif


Analysis: Looks like his delivery is a little cleaner than it was when Cleveland drafted him, although he's still going to have to work to repeat it enough to have average fastball command. His three-pitch mix makes him death to lefties and solid against righties as well. Preseason Ranking: 60

36.jpg

A.J. Cole

RHP

6-4

180

was.gif


Analysis: Going pro may have been the best decision of Cole's life, as he's been more focused and aggressive and is commanding the fastball better than he did in high school. Since his first two starts, he has posted the following line for low-A Hagerstown: 39 1/3 IP, 34 H, 6 BB, 50 K, 2.75 ERA. Preseason Ranking: NR

37.jpg

Allen Webster

RHP

6-3

185

lad.gif


Analysis: Webster is a converted outfielder pitching with a grade-60 fastball. He shows a future-plus breaking ball and has an average changeup. Chattanooga teammate Nate Eovaldi would be somewhere in the next 50, too. Preseason Ranking: NR

38.jpg

Jonathan Schoop

3B

6-1

187

bal.gif


Analysis: He's looking a little overmatched at age 19 in high A but has all the elements to be an above-average regular at third base with power and defense. Preseason Ranking: NR

39.jpg

Henderson Alvarez

RHP

6-1

195

tor.gif


Analysis: Alvarez has No. 1 starter stuff, but as with Casey Kelly, the results don't quite line up with the scouting report. He's hit 100 mph as a starter and already has a plus changeup, but there's effort in that delivery, and he has to show he can miss more bats. Preseason Ranking: NR

40.jpg

Nick Franklin

SS

6-1

170

sea.gif


Analysis: This has been a disappointing follow-up to his breakout season in 2010, but the Mariners promoted him to Double-A in late June anyway only to see him hit the DL after four games when he was hit in the jaw by another player's bat. Preseason Ranking: NR

41.jpg

Christian Yelich

1B

6-4

185

fla.gif


Analysis: Yelich is more than holding his own as a true 19-year-old in low A with some pop, some plate discipline and 19 steals in 23 attempts. He's even played some center field, although left is his probable destination. Preseason Ranking: 79

42.jpg

Will Middlebrooks

3B

6-4

200

bos.gif


Analysis: He still has to work on recognizing off-speed pitches and working the count. Otherwise, he should be a plus defender at third who hits 25-plus homers. Preseason Ranking: NR

43.jpg

Nolan Arenado

3B

6-1

205

col.gif


Analysis: Arenado is a heavy-footed third baseman with great instincts and a great swing that should produce power. One red flag: He's doing most of his damage off left-handers, hitting .286/.332/.427 against right-handed pitchers and .377/.418/689 against lefties. Those numbers are in the hitter-friendly Cal League, so take them with a grain of salt. Preseason Ranking: 92

44.jpg

Yasmani Grandal

C

6-2

205

cin.gif


Analysis: Oddly enough, his receiving skills have been questioned this season, but he's throwing well and hit from both sides of the plate in high A, although the swing looks much better from the left side. Preseason Ranking: NR

45.jpg

Jake Odorizzi

RHP

6-2

175

kan.gif


Analysis: I'm still waiting for his off-speed stuff to take a step forward, and his high-A numbers reflect a favorable home park and the fact that he made two-thirds of his starts at home. But he's athletic with good control with some projection still remaining. Preseason Ranking: NR

46.jpg

Luis Heredia

RHP

6-6

205

pit.gif


Analysis: Early reports from the Gulf Coast League are positive -- he has a chance for three plus pitches with a body that's already built for durability. Preseason Ranking: NR

47.jpg

Tyrell Jenkins

RHP

6-4

180

stl.gif


Analysis: Jenkins is a tremendous athlete with a plus fastball, a plus curveball and feel for a changeup. Hitters do see the fastball well out of his hand, but he could be a top 25-30 starter in the majors if the command and control are there. Preseason Ranking: NR

48.jpg

Drew Hutchison

RHP

6-2

165

tor.gif


Analysis: He has run it up to 95 but is pitching with more of a solid-average fastball. He's more impressive because of his feel for pitching and fastball command, but he has the projection to throw harder. Preseason Ranking: NR

49.jpg

Jason Kipnis

2B

5-10

175

cle.gif


Analysis: He's a Kelly Johnson-type player but a better pure hitter than Johnson has been. Preseason Ranking: 56

50.jpg

Jose Altuve

2B

5-7

170

hou.gif


Analysis: The little man can hit. If he were 5-foot-10, the industry would be all over him. Preseason Ranking: NR

Honorable mentions: Bryce Brentz, OF, Boston; Wily Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee; Cheslor Cuthbert, IF, Kansas City; Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado (69 in preseason); Kaleb Cowart, 3B, L.A. Angels; Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia (93 in preseason); Nate Eovaldi, RHP, L.A. Dodgers.
 
^ Sure man, NP next time just shoot a PM IDK if they're still banning folks for requesting insider information.

Crazy about the Marlins.  They needed a winning/good year to draw fans since they're opening the new stadium next season.

Klaw's top 50 midseason prospects.

Spoiler [+]
With the Futures Game and more than half the minor league season in our rearview mirror, it's time to update the rankings of the top prospects in the minors.

This list doesn't include players who've graduated to the majors (Mike Trout, Domonic Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, etc.), who have exhausted or are on pace to exhaust their rookie eligibility for 2012, and there are no 2011 draftees on this list because the draftees who might be good enough to make the list haven't signed yet.

As always, I emphasize upside and favor players with the potential to be stars at their positions or to pitch at the top of a rotation.

714Lawheader.jpg


1.jpg

Bryce Harper

OF

6-4

245

was.gif


Analysis: He's a future superstar with huge raw power and a constantly improving approach at the plate. And he won't turn 19 until October. Preseason Ranking: 2

2.jpg

Matt Moore

LHP

6-2

205

tam.gif


Analysis: He has three above-average to plus pitches and easy velocity, and has improved his control this year. All of that adds up to a No. 1 starter. Preseason Ranking: 16

3.jpg

Shelby Miller

RHP

6-1

190

stl.gif


Analysis: He's the best right-handed pitching prospect in the minors with a plus fastball, above-average to plus curveball and much better changeup. Preseason Ranking: 9

4.jpg

Carlos Martinez

RHP

6-0

165

stl.gif


Analysis: Another easy velocity guy who'll touch 100 and has a plus breaking ball. A native of the Dominican Republic, he originally signed with Boston in 2009, but the deal was voided because of incomplete documentation. Just wait for the flurry of stories on how the Red Sox should still have Martinez's rights once he reaches the big leagues and turns into a star. Preseason Ranking: 52

5.jpg

Manny Machado

SS

6-3

185

bal.gif


Analysis: It wasn't clear how advanced (or raw) his approach was when he was drafted No. 3 in 2010, but it's clear now. He has an .816 OPS across two levels, and it's looking more likely that he'll stay at short than it did last year. Preseason Ranking: 26

6.jpg

Devin Mesoraco

C

6-1

220

cin.gif


Analysis: A major league-ready offensive catcher who can catch and throw well. A potential All-Star. Preseason Ranking: 31

7.jpg

Hak-Ju Lee

SS

6-2

170

tam.gif


Analysis: He's a four-tool player with fringy power who profiles as a plus defensive shortstop who can hit and run. Preseason Ranking: 49

8.jpg

Desmond Jennings

OF

6-2

200

tam.gif


Analysis: He'll get his 1,000th plate appearance in Triple-A at some point in the next 10 days. The tools are still there.Preseason Ranking: 20

9.jpg

Brett Lawrie

3B

6-0

213

tor.gif


Analysis: Lawrie hasn't played since May 31 after he was hit on the hand by a pitch just a day before he was going to be called up to the majors. He still profiles as an impact bat who might have to move to right field. Preseason Ranking: 37

10.jpg

Martin Perez

LHP

6-0

178

tex.gif


Analysis: His stuff is intact and still slightly ahead of results, but lefties with this kind of velocity and plus changeup are extremely valuable. Preseason Ranking: 18

11.jpg

Arodys Vizcaino

RHP

6-0

189

atl.gif


Analysis: Vizcaino would have been the talk of the Futures Game if it wasn't for Moore -- electric stuff, great arm speed, better breaking ball than expected. He just needs to stay healthy. Preseason Ranking: 47

12.jpg

Julio Teheran

RHP

6-2

150

atl.gif


Analysis: He's still very highly regarded in the industry, but I'd like to see some improvement on his curveball, which has been stagnant for two years. He's still just 20 years old. Preseason Ranking: 6

13.jpg

Jacob Turner

RHP

6-5

210

det.gif


Analysis: Turner has an electric arm and shows above-average control as a 20-year-old in the Double-A Eastern League. He could see the majors later this month and would outperform Charlie Furbush. Preseason Ranking: 22

14.jpg

Jameson Taillon

RHP

6-6

225

pit.gif


Analysis: He has a plus fastball, flashes a plus slider and has just eight walks on the season (though four came in his past two starts). The Pirates have been very cautious with his workload, and he hasn't faced more than 22 batters in any outing this season, which isn't great for future durability. Preseason Ranking: 30

15.jpg

Aaron Hicks

OF

6-2

185

min.gif


Analysis: Hicks got off to a horrible start, but is now hitting .294/.414/.447 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) since May 1. He's a true center fielder who projects to have above-average defense, a plus arm, the ability to get on base and more power once he gets out of the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Preseason Ranking: 10

16.jpg

Wil Myers

OF

6-3

190

kan.gif


Analysis: Myers can be a little mechanical at the plate with a stiff front leg. But he has a great overall approach and is a good enough athlete to be a defensive asset in right field. Preseason Ranking: 8

17.jpg

Jarred Cosart

RHP

6-3

180

phi.gif


Analysis: I was dismayed to see how much he throws across his body, but the fastball/curveball combo is worthy of the front of the rotation. Preseason Ranking: 34

18.jpg

Manny Banuelos

LHP

5-10

155

nyy.gif


Analysis: He struggled with his command early after looking so good in the fall and spring. He has four walks against 24 strikeouts in his past four outings (19 2/3 IP), and that's a positive sign. Preseason Ranking: 12

19.jpg

Jarrod Parker

RHP

6-1

180

ari.gif


Analysis: He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, but command has been slow to return after Tommy John surgery in late 2009. Preseason Ranking: 25

20.jpg

Travis D'Arnaud

C

6-2

195

tor.gif


Analysis: The offensive breakout finally happened this year with a .315/.388/.552 line in New Hampshire -- and he's actually been better on the road. It's All-Star production at that position if he can just stay healthy. Preseason Ranking: NR

21.jpg

Jesus Montero

C

6-4

225

nyy.gif


Analysis: His bat still hasn't really come around, although I have to believe the power and patience are all still in there. For a guy who projects as a first baseman or DH, though, .289/.346/.418 isn't an inspiring offensive performance given his history. Preseason Ranking: 4

22.jpg

Jurickson Profar

SS

5-11

165

tex.gif


Analysis: Profar is an incredibly instinctive player who can run, hit, get on base, play short and throw. Preseason Ranking: 81

23.jpg

Miguel Sano

3B

6-3

195

min.gif


Analysis: This 18-year-old projects as an impact bat at first base or in left field with big raw power. Weird stat quirk: He's a right-handed hitter but has a reverse split in 2011, hitting .311/.368/.607 against right-handed pitchers in 21 games for rookie-level Elizabethton. Preseason Ranking: 29

24.jpg

Jonathan Singleton

1B

6-2

215

phi.gif


Analysis: He began his pro career as a first baseman, but since he's blocked in the big leagues by Ryan Howard, the Phillies moved him to the outfield. He struggled with the switch and is now playing first again. He also had issues with some mechanical tweaks that have since been undone. Like Hicks, he gets on base at a great clip for his age (19), and his power may be held down by the FSL. Preseason Ranking: 27

25.jpg

Jean Segura

SS

5-11

155

laa.gif


Analysis: He hasn't played since the last update because of a hamstring strain, but I still like his combination of speed and ability to square up the ball. Preseason Ranking: 35

26.jpg

Matt Harvey

RHP

6-4

225

nym.gif


Analysis: His transition to Double-A hasn't gone smoothly (13 runs allowed in 12 2/3 innings so far) but is up to 97 mph with a chance for three above-average secondary pitches. Preseason Ranking: 83

27.jpg

Oswaldo Arcia

OF

6-0

210

min.gif


Analysis: I have to think he would have been in the Futures Game if he'd been healthy. He's hitting .300/.345/.480 in a tiny sample in high-A as a 20-year-old who projects to stay in right field. Preseason Ranking: 74

28.jpg

Tyler Skaggs

LHP

6-4

195

ari.gif


Analysis: The Futures Game wasn't a great showing for him -- he's usually more like 90-94 with a plus curveball, and there's still projection left in that body. Preseason Ranking: 78

29.jpg

Casey Kelly

RHP

6-2

215

sdg.gif


Analysis: At some point, the results are going to have to come closer to the stuff. His 4.21 ERA at Double-A is underwhelming.Preseason Ranking: 19

30.jpg

Taijuan Walker

RHP

6-4

195

sea.gif


Analysis: He's pitching at 94 and touching 97-plus, with feel and plus fastball command. He's a great athlete, too. Preseason Ranking: NR

31.jpg

Zack Wheeler

RHP

6-3

180

sfo.gif


Analysis: There's some thought he could end up in the 'pen because the fastball command isn't there, but he barely pitched last year, and the lack of repetitions may be a reason. It's No. 1 or 2 starter stuff. Preseason Ranking: 36

32.jpg

Mike Montgomery

LHP

6-5

180

kan.gif


Analysis: In a holding pattern here -- he could end up in the big leagues if resuming long-tossing really is the key, or he could drop 30-40 spots if he continues to struggle to throw strikes. Preseason Ranking: 28

33.jpg

Zach Lee

RHP

6-4

190

lad.gif


Analysis: Lee is still mostly about projection and athleticism, but he will flash an above-average fastball with good shape on the curveball. Preseason Ranking: 91

34.jpg

Dellin Betances

RHP

6-8

245

nyy.gif


Analysis: Betances is a physical monster who doesn't repeat his delivery well because he's not that athletic but is missing bats this year on raw stuff. Preseason Ranking: 73

35.jpg

Drew Pomeranz

RHP

6-5

231

cle.gif


Analysis: Looks like his delivery is a little cleaner than it was when Cleveland drafted him, although he's still going to have to work to repeat it enough to have average fastball command. His three-pitch mix makes him death to lefties and solid against righties as well. Preseason Ranking: 60

36.jpg

A.J. Cole

RHP

6-4

180

was.gif


Analysis: Going pro may have been the best decision of Cole's life, as he's been more focused and aggressive and is commanding the fastball better than he did in high school. Since his first two starts, he has posted the following line for low-A Hagerstown: 39 1/3 IP, 34 H, 6 BB, 50 K, 2.75 ERA. Preseason Ranking: NR

37.jpg

Allen Webster

RHP

6-3

185

lad.gif


Analysis: Webster is a converted outfielder pitching with a grade-60 fastball. He shows a future-plus breaking ball and has an average changeup. Chattanooga teammate Nate Eovaldi would be somewhere in the next 50, too. Preseason Ranking: NR

38.jpg

Jonathan Schoop

3B

6-1

187

bal.gif


Analysis: He's looking a little overmatched at age 19 in high A but has all the elements to be an above-average regular at third base with power and defense. Preseason Ranking: NR

39.jpg

Henderson Alvarez

RHP

6-1

195

tor.gif


Analysis: Alvarez has No. 1 starter stuff, but as with Casey Kelly, the results don't quite line up with the scouting report. He's hit 100 mph as a starter and already has a plus changeup, but there's effort in that delivery, and he has to show he can miss more bats. Preseason Ranking: NR

40.jpg

Nick Franklin

SS

6-1

170

sea.gif


Analysis: This has been a disappointing follow-up to his breakout season in 2010, but the Mariners promoted him to Double-A in late June anyway only to see him hit the DL after four games when he was hit in the jaw by another player's bat. Preseason Ranking: NR

41.jpg

Christian Yelich

1B

6-4

185

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Analysis: Yelich is more than holding his own as a true 19-year-old in low A with some pop, some plate discipline and 19 steals in 23 attempts. He's even played some center field, although left is his probable destination. Preseason Ranking: 79

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Will Middlebrooks

3B

6-4

200

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Analysis: He still has to work on recognizing off-speed pitches and working the count. Otherwise, he should be a plus defender at third who hits 25-plus homers. Preseason Ranking: NR

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Nolan Arenado

3B

6-1

205

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Analysis: Arenado is a heavy-footed third baseman with great instincts and a great swing that should produce power. One red flag: He's doing most of his damage off left-handers, hitting .286/.332/.427 against right-handed pitchers and .377/.418/689 against lefties. Those numbers are in the hitter-friendly Cal League, so take them with a grain of salt. Preseason Ranking: 92

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Yasmani Grandal

C

6-2

205

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Analysis: Oddly enough, his receiving skills have been questioned this season, but he's throwing well and hit from both sides of the plate in high A, although the swing looks much better from the left side. Preseason Ranking: NR

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Jake Odorizzi

RHP

6-2

175

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Analysis: I'm still waiting for his off-speed stuff to take a step forward, and his high-A numbers reflect a favorable home park and the fact that he made two-thirds of his starts at home. But he's athletic with good control with some projection still remaining. Preseason Ranking: NR

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Luis Heredia

RHP

6-6

205

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Analysis: Early reports from the Gulf Coast League are positive -- he has a chance for three plus pitches with a body that's already built for durability. Preseason Ranking: NR

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Tyrell Jenkins

RHP

6-4

180

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Analysis: Jenkins is a tremendous athlete with a plus fastball, a plus curveball and feel for a changeup. Hitters do see the fastball well out of his hand, but he could be a top 25-30 starter in the majors if the command and control are there. Preseason Ranking: NR

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Drew Hutchison

RHP

6-2

165

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Analysis: He has run it up to 95 but is pitching with more of a solid-average fastball. He's more impressive because of his feel for pitching and fastball command, but he has the projection to throw harder. Preseason Ranking: NR

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Jason Kipnis

2B

5-10

175

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Analysis: He's a Kelly Johnson-type player but a better pure hitter than Johnson has been. Preseason Ranking: 56

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Jose Altuve

2B

5-7

170

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Analysis: The little man can hit. If he were 5-foot-10, the industry would be all over him. Preseason Ranking: NR

Honorable mentions: Bryce Brentz, OF, Boston; Wily Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee; Cheslor Cuthbert, IF, Kansas City; Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado (69 in preseason); Kaleb Cowart, 3B, L.A. Angels; Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia (93 in preseason); Nate Eovaldi, RHP, L.A. Dodgers.
 
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