Projecting Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespesdes will get paid but can he hit?
Spoiler [+]
A free-agent market rather thin on outfielders gets a little more exciting soon, with Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes entering the mix once he's approved for temporary residency in the Dominican Republic. With Grady Sizemore's return to Cleveland, Coco Crisp becomes by far the best center fielder available, so it's not surprising that most teams have sent scouts to check on Cespedes.
Evaluating a player from Cuba provides a unique set of challenges that aren't present when scouting other international prospects. Observing workouts isn't the ideal scouting situation. And as awesome as the official Yoenis Cespedes video is -- featuring a "Star Wars" opening and a montage set to "Sailing" by Christopher Cross -- it's a thin foundation on which to give an eight-figure contract.
As such, the stats become even more important than usual as they provide the main source of objective information about Cespedes.
However, the stats come with problems of their own. Getting comprehensive Cuban baseball stats is a difficult task because the record-keeping is spotty. Further complicating the task is the fact that unlike moves from Japan, there are relatively few major leaguers with experience playing Cuban baseball. And you can forget about things like park factors.
[h4]Translation mode[/h4]
Here's how Cespedes' recent Cuban stats would roughly translate if he were playing in the majors (and he had a neutral home park).
[table][tr][th=""]Yr[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OB[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][/tr][tr][td]'08[/td][td].243[/td][td].290[/td][td].388[/td][td]21[/td][td]77[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]'09[/td][td].262[/td][td].322[/td][td].410[/td][td]19[/td][td]75[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]'10[/td][td].269[/td][td].329[/td][td].412[/td][td]18[/td][td]66[/td][td]6[/td][/tr][tr][td]'11[/td][td].266[/td][td].332[/td][td].445[/td][td]27[/td][td]98[/td][td]13[/td][/tr][/table]
Using the stats of the Cuban baseball players who have come to the U.S. in the past 15 years, we can deduce that Cuba's Serie Nacional is a high-batting-average league that's comparable to the low minors. The spread of stats also tells us something about Cuban baseball. Generally speaking, the higher the level of a league, the closer together the statistics of individual players are. The differences in player stats for Cuba, once you take into consideration the shorter season, suggest a level similar to high Class A.
In the table to the right, I've translated Cespedes' Cuban stats to show you what they would look like if he were playing for a major league team with a neutral home park. And if we assume he's a good defensive center fielder, he appears to be a solid player. Using the ZiPS projection system, we can get a good estimate of what Cespedes' numbers would look like in the majors over the next few years. While projecting based on Cuban stats can be tricky for some of the reasons I outlined above, ZiPS nailed the Alexei Ramirez projection when he signed with the White Sox a few years ago. For 2008 through 2011, ZiPS projected that Ramirez's line would be .269 AVG/.316 OBP/.418 SLG , and his actual line was .279/.323/.421. So that gives us some hope for the Cespedes projection.
Based on Cespedes' Cuban career, ZiPS suggests that his profile is similar to players such as Kevin McReynolds, Mike Devereaux and Aaron Rowand. And going forward, it's not hard to see why Cespedes is so sought after. ZiPS projects him to be clearly better than any center fielder on the market, and while he doesn't project to be a star in any individual season, he may be able to catch that label in his better seasons.
[h4]Projecting Cespedes[/h4]
Using Cespedes' Cuban stats, I used the ZiPS projection system to give a glimpse of his future.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td].270[/td][td].331[/td][td].435[/td][td]23[/td][td]86[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td].269[/td][td].331[/td][td].439[/td][td]23[/td][td]84[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td].267[/td][td].330[/td][td].435[/td][td]22[/td][td]83[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td].268[/td][td].330[/td][td].436[/td][td]22[/td][td]82[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td].264[/td][td].327[/td][td].428[/td][td]21[/td][td]79[/td][td]7[/td][td]2.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2017[/td][td].263[/td][td].324[/td][td].418[/td][td]19[/td][td]74[/td][td]6[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2018[/td][td].259[/td][td].320[/td][td].402[/td][td]17[/td][td]66[/td][td]5[/td][td]1.9[/td][/tr][tr][td]2019[/td][td].256[/td][td].314[/td][td].386[/td][td]13[/td][td]54[/td][td]4[/td][td]1.3[/td][/tr][/table]
There are also good reasons for teams to shy away from paying him like a three-win player over the next several seasons. Simply put, there's a lot more uncertainty surrounding Cespedes than other comparable players. An Aroldis Chapman-type contract is far more likely, and his best destination is a lesser team that can afford to take an upside risk rather than a team like the Yankees or Red Sox that require a little more certainty and a little less gambling.
The other gorilla in the room is his age. Reported Cuban ages have a spotty record in terms of accuracy, and given the relations between the United States and Cuba, there's not much cooperation in verifying ages, as has been done more strenuously in other foreign countries over the past 10 years. Cespedes' listed age is 26, and if he's three years older than he says he is, his projected WAR for the next five years drops from 15.8 to 12.6. If he's five years older, it drops to 9.4 WAR.
That being said, Cespedes has intriguing potential, and adding top international talent is good for MLB and good for fans. Whether Cespedes is a success like Alexei Ramirez or a disappointment like Andy Morales is a question we'll have to wait a few years to answer.
Evaluating a player from Cuba provides a unique set of challenges that aren't present when scouting other international prospects. Observing workouts isn't the ideal scouting situation. And as awesome as the official Yoenis Cespedes video is -- featuring a "Star Wars" opening and a montage set to "Sailing" by Christopher Cross -- it's a thin foundation on which to give an eight-figure contract.
As such, the stats become even more important than usual as they provide the main source of objective information about Cespedes.
However, the stats come with problems of their own. Getting comprehensive Cuban baseball stats is a difficult task because the record-keeping is spotty. Further complicating the task is the fact that unlike moves from Japan, there are relatively few major leaguers with experience playing Cuban baseball. And you can forget about things like park factors.
[h4]Translation mode[/h4]
Here's how Cespedes' recent Cuban stats would roughly translate if he were playing in the majors (and he had a neutral home park).
[table][tr][th=""]Yr[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OB[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][/tr][tr][td]'08[/td][td].243[/td][td].290[/td][td].388[/td][td]21[/td][td]77[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]'09[/td][td].262[/td][td].322[/td][td].410[/td][td]19[/td][td]75[/td][td]5[/td][/tr][tr][td]'10[/td][td].269[/td][td].329[/td][td].412[/td][td]18[/td][td]66[/td][td]6[/td][/tr][tr][td]'11[/td][td].266[/td][td].332[/td][td].445[/td][td]27[/td][td]98[/td][td]13[/td][/tr][/table]
Using the stats of the Cuban baseball players who have come to the U.S. in the past 15 years, we can deduce that Cuba's Serie Nacional is a high-batting-average league that's comparable to the low minors. The spread of stats also tells us something about Cuban baseball. Generally speaking, the higher the level of a league, the closer together the statistics of individual players are. The differences in player stats for Cuba, once you take into consideration the shorter season, suggest a level similar to high Class A.
In the table to the right, I've translated Cespedes' Cuban stats to show you what they would look like if he were playing for a major league team with a neutral home park. And if we assume he's a good defensive center fielder, he appears to be a solid player. Using the ZiPS projection system, we can get a good estimate of what Cespedes' numbers would look like in the majors over the next few years. While projecting based on Cuban stats can be tricky for some of the reasons I outlined above, ZiPS nailed the Alexei Ramirez projection when he signed with the White Sox a few years ago. For 2008 through 2011, ZiPS projected that Ramirez's line would be .269 AVG/.316 OBP/.418 SLG , and his actual line was .279/.323/.421. So that gives us some hope for the Cespedes projection.
Based on Cespedes' Cuban career, ZiPS suggests that his profile is similar to players such as Kevin McReynolds, Mike Devereaux and Aaron Rowand. And going forward, it's not hard to see why Cespedes is so sought after. ZiPS projects him to be clearly better than any center fielder on the market, and while he doesn't project to be a star in any individual season, he may be able to catch that label in his better seasons.
[h4]Projecting Cespedes[/h4]
Using Cespedes' Cuban stats, I used the ZiPS projection system to give a glimpse of his future.
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td].270[/td][td].331[/td][td].435[/td][td]23[/td][td]86[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td].269[/td][td].331[/td][td].439[/td][td]23[/td][td]84[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td].267[/td][td].330[/td][td].435[/td][td]22[/td][td]83[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td].268[/td][td].330[/td][td].436[/td][td]22[/td][td]82[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.1[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td].264[/td][td].327[/td][td].428[/td][td]21[/td][td]79[/td][td]7[/td][td]2.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2017[/td][td].263[/td][td].324[/td][td].418[/td][td]19[/td][td]74[/td][td]6[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2018[/td][td].259[/td][td].320[/td][td].402[/td][td]17[/td][td]66[/td][td]5[/td][td]1.9[/td][/tr][tr][td]2019[/td][td].256[/td][td].314[/td][td].386[/td][td]13[/td][td]54[/td][td]4[/td][td]1.3[/td][/tr][/table]
There are also good reasons for teams to shy away from paying him like a three-win player over the next several seasons. Simply put, there's a lot more uncertainty surrounding Cespedes than other comparable players. An Aroldis Chapman-type contract is far more likely, and his best destination is a lesser team that can afford to take an upside risk rather than a team like the Yankees or Red Sox that require a little more certainty and a little less gambling.
The other gorilla in the room is his age. Reported Cuban ages have a spotty record in terms of accuracy, and given the relations between the United States and Cuba, there's not much cooperation in verifying ages, as has been done more strenuously in other foreign countries over the past 10 years. Cespedes' listed age is 26, and if he's three years older than he says he is, his projected WAR for the next five years drops from 15.8 to 12.6. If he's five years older, it drops to 9.4 WAR.
That being said, Cespedes has intriguing potential, and adding top international talent is good for MLB and good for fans. Whether Cespedes is a success like Alexei Ramirez or a disappointment like Andy Morales is a question we'll have to wait a few years to answer.
Cespesdes will get paid but can he hit?
Spoiler [+]
The fact is, if a guy has never faced big league pitching, it’s hard to say he’s your classic “five-tool player." It’s probably one of the most overused and misused labels scouts place on young players. Why?
Of the five baseball “tools
Of the five baseball “tools
