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Thanks Jose for your time in NY. You will be missed!
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- 7,925
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Thanks Jose for your time in NY. You will be missed!
Reds and Rays have (IMO) always been the perfect fit for what they both need. TB needs a first baseman and the Reds need that front line pitcher. Alonso and one of your catching prospects (maybe one other players) for Shields for work for both of em. Only reason you don't trade Alonso is if you think Votto walks in free agency year after next. But it's worth the risk especially with how bad the kid looks in LF.
Reds and Rays have (IMO) always been the perfect fit for what they both need. TB needs a first baseman and the Reds need that front line pitcher. Alonso and one of your catching prospects (maybe one other players) for Shields for work for both of em. Only reason you don't trade Alonso is if you think Votto walks in free agency year after next. But it's worth the risk especially with how bad the kid looks in LF.
Originally Posted by Periwinkle
I remember someone saying the Marlins have been pocketing their money, but Pujols too?
[h1]
[/h1][h1]S.E.C. Subpoenas Details on Marlins’ Stadium Financing[/h1]By KEN BELSON
As the Marlins’ new stadium nears completion in /travel.nytimes.com/travel/guides/north-america/united-states/florida/miami/overview.html">http://travel.nytimes.com...rida/miami/overview.html|||realestate::::::http://topics.nytimes.com...south-florida/index.html" code-source="nyt-geo">Miami, the wreckage from the deal to finance it continues to mount.
The /topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/s/securities_and_exchange_commission/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com...ge_commission/index.html">Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenaed the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County seeking details about what investigation and analysis they did before agreeing to issue nearly $500 million in /topics.nytimes.com/your-money/investments/stocks-and-bonds/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com...cks-and-bonds/index.html" type="Topic">bonds to pay for the stadium and adjoining parking lots in the Little Havana neighborhood.
In a 20-page letter to the county dated Dec. 1, the commission also asked for any documents concerning the team’s ability to help pay for the stadium.
It is also seeking records of any campaign contributions that the Marlins may have given to officials working for the city, the county and the state, and all correspondence going back to 2007 with the owners of the Marlins and their lawyers as well as the baseball commissioner /topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/bud_selig/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com...e/s/bud_selig/index.html">Bud Selig and Bob DuPuy, his former deputy.
The commission wants all the documents by Jan. 6, a deadline the county may have trouble meeting, R. A. Cuevas Jr., its lawyer, said.
P. J. Loyello, the Marlins’ spokesman, said the team would “fully cooperate
Originally Posted by Periwinkle
I remember someone saying the Marlins have been pocketing their money, but Pujols too?
[h1]
[/h1][h1]S.E.C. Subpoenas Details on Marlins’ Stadium Financing[/h1]By KEN BELSON
As the Marlins’ new stadium nears completion in /travel.nytimes.com/travel/guides/north-america/united-states/florida/miami/overview.html">http://travel.nytimes.com...rida/miami/overview.html|||realestate::::::http://topics.nytimes.com...south-florida/index.html" code-source="nyt-geo">Miami, the wreckage from the deal to finance it continues to mount.
The /topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/s/securities_and_exchange_commission/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com...ge_commission/index.html">Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenaed the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County seeking details about what investigation and analysis they did before agreeing to issue nearly $500 million in /topics.nytimes.com/your-money/investments/stocks-and-bonds/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com...cks-and-bonds/index.html" type="Topic">bonds to pay for the stadium and adjoining parking lots in the Little Havana neighborhood.
In a 20-page letter to the county dated Dec. 1, the commission also asked for any documents concerning the team’s ability to help pay for the stadium.
It is also seeking records of any campaign contributions that the Marlins may have given to officials working for the city, the county and the state, and all correspondence going back to 2007 with the owners of the Marlins and their lawyers as well as the baseball commissioner /topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/bud_selig/index.html">http://topics.nytimes.com...e/s/bud_selig/index.html">Bud Selig and Bob DuPuy, his former deputy.
The commission wants all the documents by Jan. 6, a deadline the county may have trouble meeting, R. A. Cuevas Jr., its lawyer, said.
P. J. Loyello, the Marlins’ spokesman, said the team would “fully cooperate
Miami's big risk with Jose Reyes.
The winter meetings agenda.
Contenders that should do nothing.
Reyes deal begins era of change in NY.
Spoiler [+]
It appears that the SEC inquiry into the financing of the Miami Marlins' new stadium hasn't stopped them from spending their potentially troubled windfall. They did so more wisely this time than they did on Heath Bell, but the risk involved in giving Jose Reyes six years and a salary that assumes a fairly high level of health and performance is significant.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Kathy KmonicekJose Reyes will become a member of the Marlins.
Reyes, at full health, is absolutely a star and among the best players in the game, even if 2011 was an outlier because he kept himself on the field more (and with free agency awaiting him after the season). He's a solid defensive shortstop when his legs permit it, but hasn't been plus there in several years except for his arm. Because he can play a position with such a low offensive baseline -- NL shortstops as a whole hit .261/.314/.374 in 2011, worse than any other position except pitchers -- the value of his bat makes him worth well over $10 million per year. Even his composite line in the three years since the breakout, .306/.352/.452, would make him among the top three shortstops in the game. He's worth four or five wins pretty easily if he stays healthy for most of each season and stays at shortstop.
The problem, of course, is that those "ifs" are enormous ones, and the conditions become less likely as he gets older. A six year deal includes his ages 32, 33 and 34 seasons, and given how much trouble he had with his legs in his 20s and the toll it has taken on his defense, it seems wildly optimistic to assume he'll still be at shortstop when this contract ends, or that he'll go through it without missing 150-200 games. The five-win player he is today could be a two-win or less player in 2017, especially if his legs move him out of the middle of the field entirely. I'd love to have Reyes at even $20 million a year for the next season or two, but giving six years is saying, in essence, that you don't care about the ROI on the deal as long as you get that player right now, and Miami isn't good enough to take that stance on a player yet. (And, while this is a bit of a tangent, was there another club within $10 million of them? Twenty million?)
Hanley Ramirez will now most likely move to third base, although I could see him developing into an above-average or even plus defender there, and his bat -- assuming 2011 was just a fluke down year rather than the beginning of some unusually early decline. Prospect Matt Dominguez, who is among the best defensive third basemen in organized baseball but can't recognize or hit an off-speed pitch, probably becomes a throw-in to some later trade.
The biggest winners here -- besides Reyes, obviously -- are the New York Mets, who get to say they made a good-faith effort to retain their star but weren't willing to go to the lengths to which the Marlins went to sign him. There is no rational argument that the Mets should have invested for that length of time in a player as risky as Reyes is -- they should be thinking long-term, and Reyes' risk increases exponentially as time goes on. Shortstop is a tough hole for them to fill in the short term, but given their other issues, they are better off with Reyes in South Florida.
The other big winner should be Jimmy Rollins, as the best remaining middle infielder in a market where at least three contenders -- the Phillies, Brewers and Giants -- are looking for shortstops. I'd also like to be in Ben Cherington's shoes, with a slight surplus in the middle infield that could be amplified in a market where there's more demand for shortstops than there is supply.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Kathy KmonicekJose Reyes will become a member of the Marlins.
Reyes, at full health, is absolutely a star and among the best players in the game, even if 2011 was an outlier because he kept himself on the field more (and with free agency awaiting him after the season). He's a solid defensive shortstop when his legs permit it, but hasn't been plus there in several years except for his arm. Because he can play a position with such a low offensive baseline -- NL shortstops as a whole hit .261/.314/.374 in 2011, worse than any other position except pitchers -- the value of his bat makes him worth well over $10 million per year. Even his composite line in the three years since the breakout, .306/.352/.452, would make him among the top three shortstops in the game. He's worth four or five wins pretty easily if he stays healthy for most of each season and stays at shortstop.
The problem, of course, is that those "ifs" are enormous ones, and the conditions become less likely as he gets older. A six year deal includes his ages 32, 33 and 34 seasons, and given how much trouble he had with his legs in his 20s and the toll it has taken on his defense, it seems wildly optimistic to assume he'll still be at shortstop when this contract ends, or that he'll go through it without missing 150-200 games. The five-win player he is today could be a two-win or less player in 2017, especially if his legs move him out of the middle of the field entirely. I'd love to have Reyes at even $20 million a year for the next season or two, but giving six years is saying, in essence, that you don't care about the ROI on the deal as long as you get that player right now, and Miami isn't good enough to take that stance on a player yet. (And, while this is a bit of a tangent, was there another club within $10 million of them? Twenty million?)
Hanley Ramirez will now most likely move to third base, although I could see him developing into an above-average or even plus defender there, and his bat -- assuming 2011 was just a fluke down year rather than the beginning of some unusually early decline. Prospect Matt Dominguez, who is among the best defensive third basemen in organized baseball but can't recognize or hit an off-speed pitch, probably becomes a throw-in to some later trade.
The biggest winners here -- besides Reyes, obviously -- are the New York Mets, who get to say they made a good-faith effort to retain their star but weren't willing to go to the lengths to which the Marlins went to sign him. There is no rational argument that the Mets should have invested for that length of time in a player as risky as Reyes is -- they should be thinking long-term, and Reyes' risk increases exponentially as time goes on. Shortstop is a tough hole for them to fill in the short term, but given their other issues, they are better off with Reyes in South Florida.
The other big winner should be Jimmy Rollins, as the best remaining middle infielder in a market where at least three contenders -- the Phillies, Brewers and Giants -- are looking for shortstops. I'd also like to be in Ben Cherington's shoes, with a slight surplus in the middle infield that could be amplified in a market where there's more demand for shortstops than there is supply.
The winter meetings agenda.
Spoiler [+]
DALLAS -- An agent with prominent clientele said Thursday that the volume of phone calls he had gotten had started to die down in recent days, for a simple and practical reason. "I think a lot of people are just waiting to get to the winter meetings," he explained. "It's a great place to get things done, because you can go down the hall and knock on a door and meet face-to-face."
It was at the winter meetings last year where Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin secretly went to the suite of Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore and told him he was interested in Zack Greinke, and that he'd be willing to part with Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain in a trade. Moore responded that Greinke wasn't interested in going to Milwaukee -- a stance that changed within hours.
It was at the winter meetings last year where dozens of executives launched curse words after hearing that the Washington Nationals invested $126 million in Jayson Werth, and where the Boston Red Sox completed deals for both Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and were anointed as an unbeatable team.
It will be at the winter meetings this year where new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington will hit the national stage for the first time in need of a designated hitter (David Ortiz?), a closer and a right-handed hitter. He and a number of executives appear poised to have four very busy days, because there are a whole lot of issues to be resolved.
Here's a look at the main issues on the winter meetings agenda:
1. Where will the Big Fish swim?
Dan Lozano, the agent for Albert Pujols, will be at the winter meetings, and Scott Boras, the agent for Prince Fielder, says he'll be there, too. There does not appear to be a high volume of bidders for either player, but soon we'll know if Pujols is going back to the St. Louis Cardinals or if the Chicago Cubs are going to make a serious move on one of the two first basemen.
Bernie Miklasz has some advice for Pujols and the Cardinals: Bend just a little. Rival agents believe the wiggle room for the Cardinals could be through some kind of lifetime post-career stipulations, whereby St. Louis agrees to kick in X number of millions to ensure that Pujols works for the organization after he retires. This will essentially allow the Cardinals to increase their offer to Pujols just enough to put a deal over the top, and at the same time, allow them to defer payments for a decade or more.
If the Nationals landed Fielder, they would clearly launch themselves into the next step of the baseball ladder, building a powerful lineup around the slugger, along with Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Werth, Danny Espinosa, Anthony Rendon, etc. If the Brewers engage seriously with Boras again, this could be a great sign for them, because it may mean that no team has stepped up with an offer in the $160-200 million range; Milwaukee could stretch into the $120-140 million range.
The Seattle Mariners may have the money to get Fielder, but the lingering question is whether Fielder would want to play in Seattle in a bad hitters' park and a thin lineup. And all along, executives with other teams have wondered whether the Texas Rangers would make a move on Fielder, who could finish his next contract with some time as a designated hitter if he were to sign with an American League team.
The Mariners' first priority is waiting for Fielder to make up his mind, writes Geoff Baker.
2. International invasion, Part I
The edited YouTube highlight reel of Yeonis Cespedes has drawn about 36,000 views, and there have been almost that many scouts who've made the journey to the Dominican Republic to watch the outfielder who defected from Cuba. As Jerry Crasnick wrote the other day, Cespedes already has been compared to Raul Mondesi, as a five-tool package.
The Detroit Tigers are reportedly interested, and so are the Miami Marlins and many other teams. This may be a situation in which the New York Yankees will flex their financial muscles, because Cespedes fits their needs in so many ways: They want to get younger and more athletic; they are open to the idea of identifying an upgrade in right field over Nick Swisher, who is eligible for free agency in a year; and Cespedes would help balance their lineup. Other teams say the Yankees have made it known they will listen to offers on Swisher and have wondered about who the team has envisioned using in right field in the event they find a trade for Swisher -- and Cespedes may be the answer.
Cespedes needs to establish residency in the Dominican Republic before he can apply to Major League Baseball to become a free agent, and whenever those dominoes fall, the bidding will begin.
3. International invasion, Part II
Most of the pitchers who've come to the big leagues from Japan have not lived up to the hype, from Hideki Irabu to Daisuke Matsuzaka; there has been something lost in translation. But some scouts have strong feelings that Yu Darvish, a 25-year-old right-hander, would fare well, because he is bigger, stronger and, in their eyes, just a little tougher. Clubs have been waiting for Darvish to be posted -- so that teams could bid on the right to negotiate with him -- and whenever that happens, whether it's in the week ahead or next month, he will become one of the most sought-after players in the market.
The Toronto Blue Jays have done a lot of work in scouting him, but the Rangers are considered to be the favorites to land him. But keep in mind that the new restrictions on international signings don't apply to free agents from Japan. If the Yankees or Red Sox or Cubs are willing and able to invest big dollars, the pursuit of players like Darvish presents one of the few opportunities for them to do so.
4. Closing time
The Blue Jays need a closer, and so do the Red Sox, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres and others, and there are about a dozen closer candidates available, from the high-end guys such as Ryan Madson and Francisco Rodriguez to the relievers who are on the market for trade like Andrew Bailey and Huston Street.
Within this John Fay piece, Dusty Baker says there are about a dozen closer candidates being considered by the Cincinnati Reds. The bullpen is a Mets priority, writes Mike Puma. The Rangers are talking about Bailey, and they arrive at the winter meetings seeking pitching, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Coming up short(stops)
Jose Reyes is the best free-agent shortstop available, and Jimmy Rollins is right behind him. It's a time when a number of teams are trying to identify a shortstop -- the Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and, most notably, the Philadelphia Phillies. If Fielder leaves Milwaukee and Reyes signs with the Marlins or Mets, do not rule out the possibility of the Brewers making a big play on Rollins.
6. Houston, we have a problem
The Houston Astros are in the process of hiring a general manager, and presumably, there will be progress made in that direction during the winter meetings, when Houston's bigwigs can interview multiple candidates quickly.
7. Another round of Moneyball for Oakland
The Oakland Athletics appear ready to invest in their future again, as they continue to wait for the ballpark situation to be resolved, so other teams expect they will trade their best young players for younger prospects. Bailey is likely to be traded, and along the way they are expected to field offers for Gio Gonzalez, who is not signed into the future, and for Trevor Cahill, who has been on the fringe of the Cy Young voting early in his career, and would provide cost certainty. Cahill is signed with Oakland for $28.7 million over the next four years, with club options for 2016 and 2017.
8. C.J. Wilson
He is the best free-agent starting pitcher, and the Rangers would like him back, but only at a number they consider reasonable. If Wilson gets an offer in the range of $75 million or more, that may take the Rangers out of play. The Nationals and Marlins are the teams most likely to make a push for the lefty, although there is concern in at least some corners of the Miami front office about Wilson's command struggles in the postseason.
9. Landing Marlins
Miami's offseason strategy has had some special effects built into it, with the Marlins suggesting they are big players on just about all of the biggest free agents (from Pujols on down) to build the expectations of their fan base. So far, their offers to Pujols have been far short of the $200 million benchmark that is required if you are actually "serious" about signing him, but Miami did sign closer Heath Bell, and they are widely viewed as the leading contenders for Reyes.
One way or another, they'll have better players in 2012. The Marlins say a federal probe into their ballpark deal won't affect their business.
10. WWTD?
This is the question being asked in Chicago: What will Theo do? Will he go after Fielder? Is his interest in Pujols sincere? Will he trade Matt Garza? Will he trade Sean Marshall? The Cubs figure to be in the middle of a lot of the winter meetings movement. Expect the Cubs to be very active, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
11. A product of the Golden Era joins the Hall of Fame
Maybe Gil Hodges will get in this year, or maybe it'll be the year of Ron Santo. I've thought all along Jim Kaat should be honored at the Hall, for his many, many years of great service within baseball. The winner will be announced this week. Phil Rogers makes a case for Santo and others here.
• Pedro Martinez is going to make his retirement official, writes Tim Britton.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. These winter meetings could shape the outfield of the Giants and Athletics.
2. The Chicago White Sox figure to be one of the most active teams at the meetings, and Kenny Williams canceled a scheduled call with reporters Saturday.
3. Tim Wakefield wants another year with the Red Sox. I'd bet the family farm that Wakefield will not be brought back by Boston.
4. The Jays grabbed another version of Jose Molina in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels.
5. The Angels added a lefty.
6. Omar Minaya has joined the Padres in time for the closer hunt, writes Bill Center.
7. Joey Votto isn't fretting about trade rumors, writes John Fay.
8. John Mabry has been added to Mike Matheny's staff, Derrick Goold writes.
9. Mark Feinsand writes about what Brian Cashman will have on his plate at the winter meetings. The Yankees are going to wait until the prices drop.
10. Bobby Valentine left his mark in the Dominican Republic, writes Scott Lauber.
11. Johnny Damon would love to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays.
12. Here are the top questions for Dan Duquette, from Dan Connolly.
13. Doug Melvin addressed what we had here the other day, which is not accurately conveyed in this story. To be clear: The Brewers have not increased their offer to Fielder but did indicate they were open to the idea of improving their offer -- and this took place in their most recent conversation, which was at the GM meetings.
14. The price for offensive help could be high for the Rays.
15. The winter meetings could be busy for the Atlanta Braves, writes David O'Brien.
It was at the winter meetings last year where Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin secretly went to the suite of Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore and told him he was interested in Zack Greinke, and that he'd be willing to part with Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain in a trade. Moore responded that Greinke wasn't interested in going to Milwaukee -- a stance that changed within hours.
It was at the winter meetings last year where dozens of executives launched curse words after hearing that the Washington Nationals invested $126 million in Jayson Werth, and where the Boston Red Sox completed deals for both Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and were anointed as an unbeatable team.
It will be at the winter meetings this year where new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington will hit the national stage for the first time in need of a designated hitter (David Ortiz?), a closer and a right-handed hitter. He and a number of executives appear poised to have four very busy days, because there are a whole lot of issues to be resolved.
Here's a look at the main issues on the winter meetings agenda:
1. Where will the Big Fish swim?
Dan Lozano, the agent for Albert Pujols, will be at the winter meetings, and Scott Boras, the agent for Prince Fielder, says he'll be there, too. There does not appear to be a high volume of bidders for either player, but soon we'll know if Pujols is going back to the St. Louis Cardinals or if the Chicago Cubs are going to make a serious move on one of the two first basemen.
Bernie Miklasz has some advice for Pujols and the Cardinals: Bend just a little. Rival agents believe the wiggle room for the Cardinals could be through some kind of lifetime post-career stipulations, whereby St. Louis agrees to kick in X number of millions to ensure that Pujols works for the organization after he retires. This will essentially allow the Cardinals to increase their offer to Pujols just enough to put a deal over the top, and at the same time, allow them to defer payments for a decade or more.
If the Nationals landed Fielder, they would clearly launch themselves into the next step of the baseball ladder, building a powerful lineup around the slugger, along with Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Werth, Danny Espinosa, Anthony Rendon, etc. If the Brewers engage seriously with Boras again, this could be a great sign for them, because it may mean that no team has stepped up with an offer in the $160-200 million range; Milwaukee could stretch into the $120-140 million range.
The Seattle Mariners may have the money to get Fielder, but the lingering question is whether Fielder would want to play in Seattle in a bad hitters' park and a thin lineup. And all along, executives with other teams have wondered whether the Texas Rangers would make a move on Fielder, who could finish his next contract with some time as a designated hitter if he were to sign with an American League team.
The Mariners' first priority is waiting for Fielder to make up his mind, writes Geoff Baker.
2. International invasion, Part I
The edited YouTube highlight reel of Yeonis Cespedes has drawn about 36,000 views, and there have been almost that many scouts who've made the journey to the Dominican Republic to watch the outfielder who defected from Cuba. As Jerry Crasnick wrote the other day, Cespedes already has been compared to Raul Mondesi, as a five-tool package.
The Detroit Tigers are reportedly interested, and so are the Miami Marlins and many other teams. This may be a situation in which the New York Yankees will flex their financial muscles, because Cespedes fits their needs in so many ways: They want to get younger and more athletic; they are open to the idea of identifying an upgrade in right field over Nick Swisher, who is eligible for free agency in a year; and Cespedes would help balance their lineup. Other teams say the Yankees have made it known they will listen to offers on Swisher and have wondered about who the team has envisioned using in right field in the event they find a trade for Swisher -- and Cespedes may be the answer.
Cespedes needs to establish residency in the Dominican Republic before he can apply to Major League Baseball to become a free agent, and whenever those dominoes fall, the bidding will begin.
3. International invasion, Part II
Most of the pitchers who've come to the big leagues from Japan have not lived up to the hype, from Hideki Irabu to Daisuke Matsuzaka; there has been something lost in translation. But some scouts have strong feelings that Yu Darvish, a 25-year-old right-hander, would fare well, because he is bigger, stronger and, in their eyes, just a little tougher. Clubs have been waiting for Darvish to be posted -- so that teams could bid on the right to negotiate with him -- and whenever that happens, whether it's in the week ahead or next month, he will become one of the most sought-after players in the market.
The Toronto Blue Jays have done a lot of work in scouting him, but the Rangers are considered to be the favorites to land him. But keep in mind that the new restrictions on international signings don't apply to free agents from Japan. If the Yankees or Red Sox or Cubs are willing and able to invest big dollars, the pursuit of players like Darvish presents one of the few opportunities for them to do so.
4. Closing time
The Blue Jays need a closer, and so do the Red Sox, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres and others, and there are about a dozen closer candidates available, from the high-end guys such as Ryan Madson and Francisco Rodriguez to the relievers who are on the market for trade like Andrew Bailey and Huston Street.
Within this John Fay piece, Dusty Baker says there are about a dozen closer candidates being considered by the Cincinnati Reds. The bullpen is a Mets priority, writes Mike Puma. The Rangers are talking about Bailey, and they arrive at the winter meetings seeking pitching, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Coming up short(stops)
Jose Reyes is the best free-agent shortstop available, and Jimmy Rollins is right behind him. It's a time when a number of teams are trying to identify a shortstop -- the Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and, most notably, the Philadelphia Phillies. If Fielder leaves Milwaukee and Reyes signs with the Marlins or Mets, do not rule out the possibility of the Brewers making a big play on Rollins.
6. Houston, we have a problem
The Houston Astros are in the process of hiring a general manager, and presumably, there will be progress made in that direction during the winter meetings, when Houston's bigwigs can interview multiple candidates quickly.
7. Another round of Moneyball for Oakland
The Oakland Athletics appear ready to invest in their future again, as they continue to wait for the ballpark situation to be resolved, so other teams expect they will trade their best young players for younger prospects. Bailey is likely to be traded, and along the way they are expected to field offers for Gio Gonzalez, who is not signed into the future, and for Trevor Cahill, who has been on the fringe of the Cy Young voting early in his career, and would provide cost certainty. Cahill is signed with Oakland for $28.7 million over the next four years, with club options for 2016 and 2017.
8. C.J. Wilson
He is the best free-agent starting pitcher, and the Rangers would like him back, but only at a number they consider reasonable. If Wilson gets an offer in the range of $75 million or more, that may take the Rangers out of play. The Nationals and Marlins are the teams most likely to make a push for the lefty, although there is concern in at least some corners of the Miami front office about Wilson's command struggles in the postseason.
9. Landing Marlins
Miami's offseason strategy has had some special effects built into it, with the Marlins suggesting they are big players on just about all of the biggest free agents (from Pujols on down) to build the expectations of their fan base. So far, their offers to Pujols have been far short of the $200 million benchmark that is required if you are actually "serious" about signing him, but Miami did sign closer Heath Bell, and they are widely viewed as the leading contenders for Reyes.
One way or another, they'll have better players in 2012. The Marlins say a federal probe into their ballpark deal won't affect their business.
10. WWTD?
This is the question being asked in Chicago: What will Theo do? Will he go after Fielder? Is his interest in Pujols sincere? Will he trade Matt Garza? Will he trade Sean Marshall? The Cubs figure to be in the middle of a lot of the winter meetings movement. Expect the Cubs to be very active, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
11. A product of the Golden Era joins the Hall of Fame
Maybe Gil Hodges will get in this year, or maybe it'll be the year of Ron Santo. I've thought all along Jim Kaat should be honored at the Hall, for his many, many years of great service within baseball. The winner will be announced this week. Phil Rogers makes a case for Santo and others here.
• Pedro Martinez is going to make his retirement official, writes Tim Britton.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. These winter meetings could shape the outfield of the Giants and Athletics.
2. The Chicago White Sox figure to be one of the most active teams at the meetings, and Kenny Williams canceled a scheduled call with reporters Saturday.
3. Tim Wakefield wants another year with the Red Sox. I'd bet the family farm that Wakefield will not be brought back by Boston.
4. The Jays grabbed another version of Jose Molina in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels.
5. The Angels added a lefty.
6. Omar Minaya has joined the Padres in time for the closer hunt, writes Bill Center.
7. Joey Votto isn't fretting about trade rumors, writes John Fay.
8. John Mabry has been added to Mike Matheny's staff, Derrick Goold writes.
9. Mark Feinsand writes about what Brian Cashman will have on his plate at the winter meetings. The Yankees are going to wait until the prices drop.
10. Bobby Valentine left his mark in the Dominican Republic, writes Scott Lauber.
11. Johnny Damon would love to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays.
12. Here are the top questions for Dan Duquette, from Dan Connolly.
13. Doug Melvin addressed what we had here the other day, which is not accurately conveyed in this story. To be clear: The Brewers have not increased their offer to Fielder but did indicate they were open to the idea of improving their offer -- and this took place in their most recent conversation, which was at the GM meetings.
14. The price for offensive help could be high for the Rays.
15. The winter meetings could be busy for the Atlanta Braves, writes David O'Brien.
Contenders that should do nothing.
Spoiler [+]
The current iterations of the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have at least three things in common: all three crafted their own tragic endings to the 2011 season, all three figure to contend again in 2012, and all three teams don't need to do very much in order to do so.
Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that's what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there's no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there's no need for pricey, top-tier signings.
First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.
Given Mitch Moreland's modest upside and wrist problems, there's some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.
On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts -- big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome -- aren't necessary for another run.
As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries -- an inordinate number of injuries -- are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston's major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.
Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball's best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there's no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that's never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren't necessary in the least.
Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they're in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.
On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won't be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there's enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.
While the offense won't be exceptional, there's some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there's also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.
Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes -- as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves -- that's all that's needed to ensure another run.
Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that's what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there's no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there's no need for pricey, top-tier signings.
First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.
Given Mitch Moreland's modest upside and wrist problems, there's some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.
On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts -- big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome -- aren't necessary for another run.
As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries -- an inordinate number of injuries -- are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston's major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.
Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball's best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there's no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that's never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren't necessary in the least.
Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they're in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.
On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won't be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there's enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.
While the offense won't be exceptional, there's some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there's also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.
Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes -- as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves -- that's all that's needed to ensure another run.
Reyes deal begins era of change in NY.
Spoiler [+]
As soon as colleague Enrique Rojas reported the massive push in the Miami Marlins' offer to sign Jose Reyes, the New York Mets were left scrambling to confirm the information for themselves -- and by the time they had, Reyes had agreed to terms with the Marlins. All along, the Mets' feeling was that they were comfortable giving Reyes a deal somewhere in the range of five years and $80 million, but they were not interested in engaging in a bidding war for the shortstop. Sandy Alderson acknowledged that the Marlins' offer was out of their range.
The question now is what direction the Mets should take -- and with David Wright signed through only 2012 with an option for 2013, he is unlikely to be around when the Mets are rebuilt into a contender. It would make complete sense for them to consider offers for the third baseman sometime between now and July 31 to take advantage of his market value.
The Mets are justified for letting the oft-injured Reyes leave, writes John Harper. The Mets have lost their credibility, writes Joel Sherman. From Joel's story:
The Marlins are rebranding, Juan Rodriguez writes. Now they figure to move Hanley Ramirez to third base, and the two will be installed at the top of the Miami order. When healthy and productive, they both perfectly fit the style favored by Ozzie Guillen. It's possible now that the Marlins will look to add Albert Pujols instead of pitching, writes Clark Spencer.
The Marlins have never had a payroll higher than $60 million, and now they owe more than $60 million to five players for next season: Josh Johnson ($13.75 million), Ramirez ($15 million), Reyes (his contract averages out to about $18.5 million per year), Ricky Nolasco ($9 million) and Heath Bell (about $9 million).
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• All along, the Texas Rangers' feeling about C.J. Wilson has been along these lines: They really like him, and they'd like to have him back -- but only if the price is in line with their budget and how they assess his value. And with the Washington Nationals having targeted Wilson to join Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, and bidding aggressively, the lefty may go out of the Rangers' comfort zone.
Which is why Texas' strong interest in the 32-year-old Mark Buehrle makes a lot of sense. He's older than Wilson, and therefore he couldn't command a six-year deal at this stage in his career. But he could give Texas the 200 innings that Wilson has in each of the past two years; Buehrle, after all, has generated more than 200 innings in 11 consecutive seasons.
Buehrle has pitched in the AL in a hitters' park and has been among the most consistent players in the big leagues the past decade. He's pitched effectively in Texas, posting a 3.86 ERA in eight career games in Arlington.
If Buehrle and John Danks depart the Chicago White Sox, there will be massive holes in Chicago's rotation, writes Mark Gonzales.
• Manny Ramirez filed for reinstatement, and he's working out and is ready to take offers. But he may struggle to find a job, primarily because he's 40 and is viewed as a DH-only option by a lot of talent evaluators, but also because he's burned so many bridges through the years. According to a source, it's unlikely but possible that the Tampa Bay Rays will sign him, but beyond that, there were a lot of teams indicating zero interest in Ramirez on Sunday. Dan Duquette, who signed Ramirez for the Boston Red Sox, called the news about his reinstatement "interesting" -- but I can't imagine a manager who would hate the "Manny Being Manny" stuff more than Buck Showalter.
• The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be facing a light market for Pujols. It is mentioned within the story that the Chicago Cubs' reported interest in Pujols is viewed skeptically.
From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:
On Monday, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of its Golden Era Committee balloting. Media reports indicate that the likeliest player to be elected is former Cubs third baseman Ron Santo.
Some career notes for Santo:
• Played 15 MLB seasons from 1960-74 (14 spent with Cubs; played final season with White Sox)
• .277 BA, 342 HR, 1,331 RBIs
• Four career 30-HR seasons
• Nine All-Star appearances
• Five Gold Gloves
• Finished top 5 in MVP voting twice (1967, '69)
• Led NL with 13 triples in 1964
• Cubs broadcaster, 1990-2011
In Cubs franchise history, Santo ranks fifth in games (2,126), fourth in homers (337), fifth in RBIs (1,290) and second in walks (1,071).
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers could be in line for a barren winter. They will look around for a starting pitcher, and among the veteran free agents, the guy who could make the most sense is Aaron Harang. The Dodgers figure to have money available to them during the season, after their next ownership is in place, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they added an expensive player or two during the year.
2. Clayton Kershaw's representatives have had early contact with the Dodgers about a possible long-term deal for the lefty, but there hasn't been any serious negotiating yet.
3. The Angels are bumping up against their budget limits, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
4. Alex Anthopoulos is in the red zone, writes Bob Elliott. Anthopoulos is ready to wheel and deal, writes Richard Griffin.
5. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Laynce Nix to a two-year deal to augment their bench. The Phillies' primary focus in these meetings will be to re-sign Jimmy Rollins, writes Bob Brookover.
6. The Red Sox already have a lot of payroll obligation as these winter meetings begin, writes Brian MacPherson.
7. Theo Epstein is ready to deal, writes Paul Sullivan.
8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are pleased with their current roster, writes Nick Piecoro. Wrote the other day that in the end, there seems to be a good chance that Joe Saunders could come back on a two-year deal for something in the range of $12 million.
9. The Nationals' priorities at the winter meetings are signing a starting pitcher, such as Buehrle, and improving their bench, writes Adam Kilgore. There is no mention of Prince Fielder.
10. The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for answers in the rotation and at first base in these meetings, writes Michael Sanserino.
11. The Kansas City Royals' shopping is nearly done, writes Bob Dutton.
12. Francisco Cordero is unlikely to return to the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
13. Expect the AL Central teams to be busy, writes Tony Paul.
14. The Cleveland Indians will continue to rely on young talent, writes Paul Hoynes. Within this piece, he mentions that it's possible that in the current rush for closers, the Indians would listen to offers for Chris Perez.
15. Doug Melvin scoffs at the notion that he should trade a starting pitcher.
16. The Baltimore Orioles added some baseball veterans to their staff, Dan Connolly writes.
17. The Minnesota Twins are expected to meet with the agent for Michael Cuddyer this week, writes Joe Christensen.
18. Business is happening and the Astros don't have a GM, writes Zachary Levine.
The question now is what direction the Mets should take -- and with David Wright signed through only 2012 with an option for 2013, he is unlikely to be around when the Mets are rebuilt into a contender. It would make complete sense for them to consider offers for the third baseman sometime between now and July 31 to take advantage of his market value.
The Mets are justified for letting the oft-injured Reyes leave, writes John Harper. The Mets have lost their credibility, writes Joel Sherman. From Joel's story:
- Normally one who speaks with a wry smile and an even tone, Alderson turned particularly strident in saying that he does not intend to trade David Wright now and instead wants to find pieces to make the club better.
- "I am not conceding anything about 2012," Alderson said. "We are here [at the Winter Meetings] for the next four days to put the best team out in 2012 with or without Jose Reyes."
- Alderson is not backing down from the challenge. Fine. But the most important victories now have to be about competence; about doing enough positives as to begin to win back faith en route to winning games.
The Marlins are rebranding, Juan Rodriguez writes. Now they figure to move Hanley Ramirez to third base, and the two will be installed at the top of the Miami order. When healthy and productive, they both perfectly fit the style favored by Ozzie Guillen. It's possible now that the Marlins will look to add Albert Pujols instead of pitching, writes Clark Spencer.
The Marlins have never had a payroll higher than $60 million, and now they owe more than $60 million to five players for next season: Josh Johnson ($13.75 million), Ramirez ($15 million), Reyes (his contract averages out to about $18.5 million per year), Ricky Nolasco ($9 million) and Heath Bell (about $9 million).
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• All along, the Texas Rangers' feeling about C.J. Wilson has been along these lines: They really like him, and they'd like to have him back -- but only if the price is in line with their budget and how they assess his value. And with the Washington Nationals having targeted Wilson to join Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, and bidding aggressively, the lefty may go out of the Rangers' comfort zone.
Which is why Texas' strong interest in the 32-year-old Mark Buehrle makes a lot of sense. He's older than Wilson, and therefore he couldn't command a six-year deal at this stage in his career. But he could give Texas the 200 innings that Wilson has in each of the past two years; Buehrle, after all, has generated more than 200 innings in 11 consecutive seasons.
Buehrle has pitched in the AL in a hitters' park and has been among the most consistent players in the big leagues the past decade. He's pitched effectively in Texas, posting a 3.86 ERA in eight career games in Arlington.
If Buehrle and John Danks depart the Chicago White Sox, there will be massive holes in Chicago's rotation, writes Mark Gonzales.
• Manny Ramirez filed for reinstatement, and he's working out and is ready to take offers. But he may struggle to find a job, primarily because he's 40 and is viewed as a DH-only option by a lot of talent evaluators, but also because he's burned so many bridges through the years. According to a source, it's unlikely but possible that the Tampa Bay Rays will sign him, but beyond that, there were a lot of teams indicating zero interest in Ramirez on Sunday. Dan Duquette, who signed Ramirez for the Boston Red Sox, called the news about his reinstatement "interesting" -- but I can't imagine a manager who would hate the "Manny Being Manny" stuff more than Buck Showalter.
• The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be facing a light market for Pujols. It is mentioned within the story that the Chicago Cubs' reported interest in Pujols is viewed skeptically.
From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:
On Monday, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of its Golden Era Committee balloting. Media reports indicate that the likeliest player to be elected is former Cubs third baseman Ron Santo.
Some career notes for Santo:
• Played 15 MLB seasons from 1960-74 (14 spent with Cubs; played final season with White Sox)
• .277 BA, 342 HR, 1,331 RBIs
• Four career 30-HR seasons
• Nine All-Star appearances
• Five Gold Gloves
• Finished top 5 in MVP voting twice (1967, '69)
• Led NL with 13 triples in 1964
• Cubs broadcaster, 1990-2011
In Cubs franchise history, Santo ranks fifth in games (2,126), fourth in homers (337), fifth in RBIs (1,290) and second in walks (1,071).
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers could be in line for a barren winter. They will look around for a starting pitcher, and among the veteran free agents, the guy who could make the most sense is Aaron Harang. The Dodgers figure to have money available to them during the season, after their next ownership is in place, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they added an expensive player or two during the year.
2. Clayton Kershaw's representatives have had early contact with the Dodgers about a possible long-term deal for the lefty, but there hasn't been any serious negotiating yet.
3. The Angels are bumping up against their budget limits, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
4. Alex Anthopoulos is in the red zone, writes Bob Elliott. Anthopoulos is ready to wheel and deal, writes Richard Griffin.
5. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Laynce Nix to a two-year deal to augment their bench. The Phillies' primary focus in these meetings will be to re-sign Jimmy Rollins, writes Bob Brookover.
6. The Red Sox already have a lot of payroll obligation as these winter meetings begin, writes Brian MacPherson.
7. Theo Epstein is ready to deal, writes Paul Sullivan.
8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are pleased with their current roster, writes Nick Piecoro. Wrote the other day that in the end, there seems to be a good chance that Joe Saunders could come back on a two-year deal for something in the range of $12 million.
9. The Nationals' priorities at the winter meetings are signing a starting pitcher, such as Buehrle, and improving their bench, writes Adam Kilgore. There is no mention of Prince Fielder.
10. The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for answers in the rotation and at first base in these meetings, writes Michael Sanserino.
11. The Kansas City Royals' shopping is nearly done, writes Bob Dutton.
12. Francisco Cordero is unlikely to return to the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
13. Expect the AL Central teams to be busy, writes Tony Paul.
14. The Cleveland Indians will continue to rely on young talent, writes Paul Hoynes. Within this piece, he mentions that it's possible that in the current rush for closers, the Indians would listen to offers for Chris Perez.
15. Doug Melvin scoffs at the notion that he should trade a starting pitcher.
16. The Baltimore Orioles added some baseball veterans to their staff, Dan Connolly writes.
17. The Minnesota Twins are expected to meet with the agent for Michael Cuddyer this week, writes Joe Christensen.
18. Business is happening and the Astros don't have a GM, writes Zachary Levine.
Miami's big risk with Jose Reyes.
The winter meetings agenda.
Contenders that should do nothing.
Reyes deal begins era of change in NY.
Spoiler [+]
It appears that the SEC inquiry into the financing of the Miami Marlins' new stadium hasn't stopped them from spending their potentially troubled windfall. They did so more wisely this time than they did on Heath Bell, but the risk involved in giving Jose Reyes six years and a salary that assumes a fairly high level of health and performance is significant.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Kathy KmonicekJose Reyes will become a member of the Marlins.
Reyes, at full health, is absolutely a star and among the best players in the game, even if 2011 was an outlier because he kept himself on the field more (and with free agency awaiting him after the season). He's a solid defensive shortstop when his legs permit it, but hasn't been plus there in several years except for his arm. Because he can play a position with such a low offensive baseline -- NL shortstops as a whole hit .261/.314/.374 in 2011, worse than any other position except pitchers -- the value of his bat makes him worth well over $10 million per year. Even his composite line in the three years since the breakout, .306/.352/.452, would make him among the top three shortstops in the game. He's worth four or five wins pretty easily if he stays healthy for most of each season and stays at shortstop.
The problem, of course, is that those "ifs" are enormous ones, and the conditions become less likely as he gets older. A six year deal includes his ages 32, 33 and 34 seasons, and given how much trouble he had with his legs in his 20s and the toll it has taken on his defense, it seems wildly optimistic to assume he'll still be at shortstop when this contract ends, or that he'll go through it without missing 150-200 games. The five-win player he is today could be a two-win or less player in 2017, especially if his legs move him out of the middle of the field entirely. I'd love to have Reyes at even $20 million a year for the next season or two, but giving six years is saying, in essence, that you don't care about the ROI on the deal as long as you get that player right now, and Miami isn't good enough to take that stance on a player yet. (And, while this is a bit of a tangent, was there another club within $10 million of them? Twenty million?)
Hanley Ramirez will now most likely move to third base, although I could see him developing into an above-average or even plus defender there, and his bat -- assuming 2011 was just a fluke down year rather than the beginning of some unusually early decline. Prospect Matt Dominguez, who is among the best defensive third basemen in organized baseball but can't recognize or hit an off-speed pitch, probably becomes a throw-in to some later trade.
The biggest winners here -- besides Reyes, obviously -- are the New York Mets, who get to say they made a good-faith effort to retain their star but weren't willing to go to the lengths to which the Marlins went to sign him. There is no rational argument that the Mets should have invested for that length of time in a player as risky as Reyes is -- they should be thinking long-term, and Reyes' risk increases exponentially as time goes on. Shortstop is a tough hole for them to fill in the short term, but given their other issues, they are better off with Reyes in South Florida.
The other big winner should be Jimmy Rollins, as the best remaining middle infielder in a market where at least three contenders -- the Phillies, Brewers and Giants -- are looking for shortstops. I'd also like to be in Ben Cherington's shoes, with a slight surplus in the middle infield that could be amplified in a market where there's more demand for shortstops than there is supply.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Kathy KmonicekJose Reyes will become a member of the Marlins.
Reyes, at full health, is absolutely a star and among the best players in the game, even if 2011 was an outlier because he kept himself on the field more (and with free agency awaiting him after the season). He's a solid defensive shortstop when his legs permit it, but hasn't been plus there in several years except for his arm. Because he can play a position with such a low offensive baseline -- NL shortstops as a whole hit .261/.314/.374 in 2011, worse than any other position except pitchers -- the value of his bat makes him worth well over $10 million per year. Even his composite line in the three years since the breakout, .306/.352/.452, would make him among the top three shortstops in the game. He's worth four or five wins pretty easily if he stays healthy for most of each season and stays at shortstop.
The problem, of course, is that those "ifs" are enormous ones, and the conditions become less likely as he gets older. A six year deal includes his ages 32, 33 and 34 seasons, and given how much trouble he had with his legs in his 20s and the toll it has taken on his defense, it seems wildly optimistic to assume he'll still be at shortstop when this contract ends, or that he'll go through it without missing 150-200 games. The five-win player he is today could be a two-win or less player in 2017, especially if his legs move him out of the middle of the field entirely. I'd love to have Reyes at even $20 million a year for the next season or two, but giving six years is saying, in essence, that you don't care about the ROI on the deal as long as you get that player right now, and Miami isn't good enough to take that stance on a player yet. (And, while this is a bit of a tangent, was there another club within $10 million of them? Twenty million?)
Hanley Ramirez will now most likely move to third base, although I could see him developing into an above-average or even plus defender there, and his bat -- assuming 2011 was just a fluke down year rather than the beginning of some unusually early decline. Prospect Matt Dominguez, who is among the best defensive third basemen in organized baseball but can't recognize or hit an off-speed pitch, probably becomes a throw-in to some later trade.
The biggest winners here -- besides Reyes, obviously -- are the New York Mets, who get to say they made a good-faith effort to retain their star but weren't willing to go to the lengths to which the Marlins went to sign him. There is no rational argument that the Mets should have invested for that length of time in a player as risky as Reyes is -- they should be thinking long-term, and Reyes' risk increases exponentially as time goes on. Shortstop is a tough hole for them to fill in the short term, but given their other issues, they are better off with Reyes in South Florida.
The other big winner should be Jimmy Rollins, as the best remaining middle infielder in a market where at least three contenders -- the Phillies, Brewers and Giants -- are looking for shortstops. I'd also like to be in Ben Cherington's shoes, with a slight surplus in the middle infield that could be amplified in a market where there's more demand for shortstops than there is supply.
The winter meetings agenda.
Spoiler [+]
DALLAS -- An agent with prominent clientele said Thursday that the volume of phone calls he had gotten had started to die down in recent days, for a simple and practical reason. "I think a lot of people are just waiting to get to the winter meetings," he explained. "It's a great place to get things done, because you can go down the hall and knock on a door and meet face-to-face."
It was at the winter meetings last year where Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin secretly went to the suite of Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore and told him he was interested in Zack Greinke, and that he'd be willing to part with Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain in a trade. Moore responded that Greinke wasn't interested in going to Milwaukee -- a stance that changed within hours.
It was at the winter meetings last year where dozens of executives launched curse words after hearing that the Washington Nationals invested $126 million in Jayson Werth, and where the Boston Red Sox completed deals for both Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and were anointed as an unbeatable team.
It will be at the winter meetings this year where new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington will hit the national stage for the first time in need of a designated hitter (David Ortiz?), a closer and a right-handed hitter. He and a number of executives appear poised to have four very busy days, because there are a whole lot of issues to be resolved.
Here's a look at the main issues on the winter meetings agenda:
1. Where will the Big Fish swim?
Dan Lozano, the agent for Albert Pujols, will be at the winter meetings, and Scott Boras, the agent for Prince Fielder, says he'll be there, too. There does not appear to be a high volume of bidders for either player, but soon we'll know if Pujols is going back to the St. Louis Cardinals or if the Chicago Cubs are going to make a serious move on one of the two first basemen.
Bernie Miklasz has some advice for Pujols and the Cardinals: Bend just a little. Rival agents believe the wiggle room for the Cardinals could be through some kind of lifetime post-career stipulations, whereby St. Louis agrees to kick in X number of millions to ensure that Pujols works for the organization after he retires. This will essentially allow the Cardinals to increase their offer to Pujols just enough to put a deal over the top, and at the same time, allow them to defer payments for a decade or more.
If the Nationals landed Fielder, they would clearly launch themselves into the next step of the baseball ladder, building a powerful lineup around the slugger, along with Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Werth, Danny Espinosa, Anthony Rendon, etc. If the Brewers engage seriously with Boras again, this could be a great sign for them, because it may mean that no team has stepped up with an offer in the $160-200 million range; Milwaukee could stretch into the $120-140 million range.
The Seattle Mariners may have the money to get Fielder, but the lingering question is whether Fielder would want to play in Seattle in a bad hitters' park and a thin lineup. And all along, executives with other teams have wondered whether the Texas Rangers would make a move on Fielder, who could finish his next contract with some time as a designated hitter if he were to sign with an American League team.
The Mariners' first priority is waiting for Fielder to make up his mind, writes Geoff Baker.
2. International invasion, Part I
The edited YouTube highlight reel of Yeonis Cespedes has drawn about 36,000 views, and there have been almost that many scouts who've made the journey to the Dominican Republic to watch the outfielder who defected from Cuba. As Jerry Crasnick wrote the other day, Cespedes already has been compared to Raul Mondesi, as a five-tool package.
The Detroit Tigers are reportedly interested, and so are the Miami Marlins and many other teams. This may be a situation in which the New York Yankees will flex their financial muscles, because Cespedes fits their needs in so many ways: They want to get younger and more athletic; they are open to the idea of identifying an upgrade in right field over Nick Swisher, who is eligible for free agency in a year; and Cespedes would help balance their lineup. Other teams say the Yankees have made it known they will listen to offers on Swisher and have wondered about who the team has envisioned using in right field in the event they find a trade for Swisher -- and Cespedes may be the answer.
Cespedes needs to establish residency in the Dominican Republic before he can apply to Major League Baseball to become a free agent, and whenever those dominoes fall, the bidding will begin.
3. International invasion, Part II
Most of the pitchers who've come to the big leagues from Japan have not lived up to the hype, from Hideki Irabu to Daisuke Matsuzaka; there has been something lost in translation. But some scouts have strong feelings that Yu Darvish, a 25-year-old right-hander, would fare well, because he is bigger, stronger and, in their eyes, just a little tougher. Clubs have been waiting for Darvish to be posted -- so that teams could bid on the right to negotiate with him -- and whenever that happens, whether it's in the week ahead or next month, he will become one of the most sought-after players in the market.
The Toronto Blue Jays have done a lot of work in scouting him, but the Rangers are considered to be the favorites to land him. But keep in mind that the new restrictions on international signings don't apply to free agents from Japan. If the Yankees or Red Sox or Cubs are willing and able to invest big dollars, the pursuit of players like Darvish presents one of the few opportunities for them to do so.
4. Closing time
The Blue Jays need a closer, and so do the Red Sox, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres and others, and there are about a dozen closer candidates available, from the high-end guys such as Ryan Madson and Francisco Rodriguez to the relievers who are on the market for trade like Andrew Bailey and Huston Street.
Within this John Fay piece, Dusty Baker says there are about a dozen closer candidates being considered by the Cincinnati Reds. The bullpen is a Mets priority, writes Mike Puma. The Rangers are talking about Bailey, and they arrive at the winter meetings seeking pitching, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Coming up short(stops)
Jose Reyes is the best free-agent shortstop available, and Jimmy Rollins is right behind him. It's a time when a number of teams are trying to identify a shortstop -- the Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and, most notably, the Philadelphia Phillies. If Fielder leaves Milwaukee and Reyes signs with the Marlins or Mets, do not rule out the possibility of the Brewers making a big play on Rollins.
6. Houston, we have a problem
The Houston Astros are in the process of hiring a general manager, and presumably, there will be progress made in that direction during the winter meetings, when Houston's bigwigs can interview multiple candidates quickly.
7. Another round of Moneyball for Oakland
The Oakland Athletics appear ready to invest in their future again, as they continue to wait for the ballpark situation to be resolved, so other teams expect they will trade their best young players for younger prospects. Bailey is likely to be traded, and along the way they are expected to field offers for Gio Gonzalez, who is not signed into the future, and for Trevor Cahill, who has been on the fringe of the Cy Young voting early in his career, and would provide cost certainty. Cahill is signed with Oakland for $28.7 million over the next four years, with club options for 2016 and 2017.
8. C.J. Wilson
He is the best free-agent starting pitcher, and the Rangers would like him back, but only at a number they consider reasonable. If Wilson gets an offer in the range of $75 million or more, that may take the Rangers out of play. The Nationals and Marlins are the teams most likely to make a push for the lefty, although there is concern in at least some corners of the Miami front office about Wilson's command struggles in the postseason.
9. Landing Marlins
Miami's offseason strategy has had some special effects built into it, with the Marlins suggesting they are big players on just about all of the biggest free agents (from Pujols on down) to build the expectations of their fan base. So far, their offers to Pujols have been far short of the $200 million benchmark that is required if you are actually "serious" about signing him, but Miami did sign closer Heath Bell, and they are widely viewed as the leading contenders for Reyes.
One way or another, they'll have better players in 2012. The Marlins say a federal probe into their ballpark deal won't affect their business.
10. WWTD?
This is the question being asked in Chicago: What will Theo do? Will he go after Fielder? Is his interest in Pujols sincere? Will he trade Matt Garza? Will he trade Sean Marshall? The Cubs figure to be in the middle of a lot of the winter meetings movement. Expect the Cubs to be very active, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
11. A product of the Golden Era joins the Hall of Fame
Maybe Gil Hodges will get in this year, or maybe it'll be the year of Ron Santo. I've thought all along Jim Kaat should be honored at the Hall, for his many, many years of great service within baseball. The winner will be announced this week. Phil Rogers makes a case for Santo and others here.
• Pedro Martinez is going to make his retirement official, writes Tim Britton.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. These winter meetings could shape the outfield of the Giants and Athletics.
2. The Chicago White Sox figure to be one of the most active teams at the meetings, and Kenny Williams canceled a scheduled call with reporters Saturday.
3. Tim Wakefield wants another year with the Red Sox. I'd bet the family farm that Wakefield will not be brought back by Boston.
4. The Jays grabbed another version of Jose Molina in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels.
5. The Angels added a lefty.
6. Omar Minaya has joined the Padres in time for the closer hunt, writes Bill Center.
7. Joey Votto isn't fretting about trade rumors, writes John Fay.
8. John Mabry has been added to Mike Matheny's staff, Derrick Goold writes.
9. Mark Feinsand writes about what Brian Cashman will have on his plate at the winter meetings. The Yankees are going to wait until the prices drop.
10. Bobby Valentine left his mark in the Dominican Republic, writes Scott Lauber.
11. Johnny Damon would love to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays.
12. Here are the top questions for Dan Duquette, from Dan Connolly.
13. Doug Melvin addressed what we had here the other day, which is not accurately conveyed in this story. To be clear: The Brewers have not increased their offer to Fielder but did indicate they were open to the idea of improving their offer -- and this took place in their most recent conversation, which was at the GM meetings.
14. The price for offensive help could be high for the Rays.
15. The winter meetings could be busy for the Atlanta Braves, writes David O'Brien.
It was at the winter meetings last year where Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin secretly went to the suite of Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore and told him he was interested in Zack Greinke, and that he'd be willing to part with Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain in a trade. Moore responded that Greinke wasn't interested in going to Milwaukee -- a stance that changed within hours.
It was at the winter meetings last year where dozens of executives launched curse words after hearing that the Washington Nationals invested $126 million in Jayson Werth, and where the Boston Red Sox completed deals for both Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and were anointed as an unbeatable team.
It will be at the winter meetings this year where new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington will hit the national stage for the first time in need of a designated hitter (David Ortiz?), a closer and a right-handed hitter. He and a number of executives appear poised to have four very busy days, because there are a whole lot of issues to be resolved.
Here's a look at the main issues on the winter meetings agenda:
1. Where will the Big Fish swim?
Dan Lozano, the agent for Albert Pujols, will be at the winter meetings, and Scott Boras, the agent for Prince Fielder, says he'll be there, too. There does not appear to be a high volume of bidders for either player, but soon we'll know if Pujols is going back to the St. Louis Cardinals or if the Chicago Cubs are going to make a serious move on one of the two first basemen.
Bernie Miklasz has some advice for Pujols and the Cardinals: Bend just a little. Rival agents believe the wiggle room for the Cardinals could be through some kind of lifetime post-career stipulations, whereby St. Louis agrees to kick in X number of millions to ensure that Pujols works for the organization after he retires. This will essentially allow the Cardinals to increase their offer to Pujols just enough to put a deal over the top, and at the same time, allow them to defer payments for a decade or more.
If the Nationals landed Fielder, they would clearly launch themselves into the next step of the baseball ladder, building a powerful lineup around the slugger, along with Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Werth, Danny Espinosa, Anthony Rendon, etc. If the Brewers engage seriously with Boras again, this could be a great sign for them, because it may mean that no team has stepped up with an offer in the $160-200 million range; Milwaukee could stretch into the $120-140 million range.
The Seattle Mariners may have the money to get Fielder, but the lingering question is whether Fielder would want to play in Seattle in a bad hitters' park and a thin lineup. And all along, executives with other teams have wondered whether the Texas Rangers would make a move on Fielder, who could finish his next contract with some time as a designated hitter if he were to sign with an American League team.
The Mariners' first priority is waiting for Fielder to make up his mind, writes Geoff Baker.
2. International invasion, Part I
The edited YouTube highlight reel of Yeonis Cespedes has drawn about 36,000 views, and there have been almost that many scouts who've made the journey to the Dominican Republic to watch the outfielder who defected from Cuba. As Jerry Crasnick wrote the other day, Cespedes already has been compared to Raul Mondesi, as a five-tool package.
The Detroit Tigers are reportedly interested, and so are the Miami Marlins and many other teams. This may be a situation in which the New York Yankees will flex their financial muscles, because Cespedes fits their needs in so many ways: They want to get younger and more athletic; they are open to the idea of identifying an upgrade in right field over Nick Swisher, who is eligible for free agency in a year; and Cespedes would help balance their lineup. Other teams say the Yankees have made it known they will listen to offers on Swisher and have wondered about who the team has envisioned using in right field in the event they find a trade for Swisher -- and Cespedes may be the answer.
Cespedes needs to establish residency in the Dominican Republic before he can apply to Major League Baseball to become a free agent, and whenever those dominoes fall, the bidding will begin.
3. International invasion, Part II
Most of the pitchers who've come to the big leagues from Japan have not lived up to the hype, from Hideki Irabu to Daisuke Matsuzaka; there has been something lost in translation. But some scouts have strong feelings that Yu Darvish, a 25-year-old right-hander, would fare well, because he is bigger, stronger and, in their eyes, just a little tougher. Clubs have been waiting for Darvish to be posted -- so that teams could bid on the right to negotiate with him -- and whenever that happens, whether it's in the week ahead or next month, he will become one of the most sought-after players in the market.
The Toronto Blue Jays have done a lot of work in scouting him, but the Rangers are considered to be the favorites to land him. But keep in mind that the new restrictions on international signings don't apply to free agents from Japan. If the Yankees or Red Sox or Cubs are willing and able to invest big dollars, the pursuit of players like Darvish presents one of the few opportunities for them to do so.
4. Closing time
The Blue Jays need a closer, and so do the Red Sox, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres and others, and there are about a dozen closer candidates available, from the high-end guys such as Ryan Madson and Francisco Rodriguez to the relievers who are on the market for trade like Andrew Bailey and Huston Street.
Within this John Fay piece, Dusty Baker says there are about a dozen closer candidates being considered by the Cincinnati Reds. The bullpen is a Mets priority, writes Mike Puma. The Rangers are talking about Bailey, and they arrive at the winter meetings seeking pitching, writes Jeff Wilson.
5. Coming up short(stops)
Jose Reyes is the best free-agent shortstop available, and Jimmy Rollins is right behind him. It's a time when a number of teams are trying to identify a shortstop -- the Brewers, Marlins, Cardinals, San Francisco Giants and, most notably, the Philadelphia Phillies. If Fielder leaves Milwaukee and Reyes signs with the Marlins or Mets, do not rule out the possibility of the Brewers making a big play on Rollins.
6. Houston, we have a problem
The Houston Astros are in the process of hiring a general manager, and presumably, there will be progress made in that direction during the winter meetings, when Houston's bigwigs can interview multiple candidates quickly.
7. Another round of Moneyball for Oakland
The Oakland Athletics appear ready to invest in their future again, as they continue to wait for the ballpark situation to be resolved, so other teams expect they will trade their best young players for younger prospects. Bailey is likely to be traded, and along the way they are expected to field offers for Gio Gonzalez, who is not signed into the future, and for Trevor Cahill, who has been on the fringe of the Cy Young voting early in his career, and would provide cost certainty. Cahill is signed with Oakland for $28.7 million over the next four years, with club options for 2016 and 2017.
8. C.J. Wilson
He is the best free-agent starting pitcher, and the Rangers would like him back, but only at a number they consider reasonable. If Wilson gets an offer in the range of $75 million or more, that may take the Rangers out of play. The Nationals and Marlins are the teams most likely to make a push for the lefty, although there is concern in at least some corners of the Miami front office about Wilson's command struggles in the postseason.
9. Landing Marlins
Miami's offseason strategy has had some special effects built into it, with the Marlins suggesting they are big players on just about all of the biggest free agents (from Pujols on down) to build the expectations of their fan base. So far, their offers to Pujols have been far short of the $200 million benchmark that is required if you are actually "serious" about signing him, but Miami did sign closer Heath Bell, and they are widely viewed as the leading contenders for Reyes.
One way or another, they'll have better players in 2012. The Marlins say a federal probe into their ballpark deal won't affect their business.
10. WWTD?
This is the question being asked in Chicago: What will Theo do? Will he go after Fielder? Is his interest in Pujols sincere? Will he trade Matt Garza? Will he trade Sean Marshall? The Cubs figure to be in the middle of a lot of the winter meetings movement. Expect the Cubs to be very active, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
11. A product of the Golden Era joins the Hall of Fame
Maybe Gil Hodges will get in this year, or maybe it'll be the year of Ron Santo. I've thought all along Jim Kaat should be honored at the Hall, for his many, many years of great service within baseball. The winner will be announced this week. Phil Rogers makes a case for Santo and others here.
• Pedro Martinez is going to make his retirement official, writes Tim Britton.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. These winter meetings could shape the outfield of the Giants and Athletics.
2. The Chicago White Sox figure to be one of the most active teams at the meetings, and Kenny Williams canceled a scheduled call with reporters Saturday.
3. Tim Wakefield wants another year with the Red Sox. I'd bet the family farm that Wakefield will not be brought back by Boston.
4. The Jays grabbed another version of Jose Molina in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels.
5. The Angels added a lefty.
6. Omar Minaya has joined the Padres in time for the closer hunt, writes Bill Center.
7. Joey Votto isn't fretting about trade rumors, writes John Fay.
8. John Mabry has been added to Mike Matheny's staff, Derrick Goold writes.
9. Mark Feinsand writes about what Brian Cashman will have on his plate at the winter meetings. The Yankees are going to wait until the prices drop.
10. Bobby Valentine left his mark in the Dominican Republic, writes Scott Lauber.
11. Johnny Damon would love to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays.
12. Here are the top questions for Dan Duquette, from Dan Connolly.
13. Doug Melvin addressed what we had here the other day, which is not accurately conveyed in this story. To be clear: The Brewers have not increased their offer to Fielder but did indicate they were open to the idea of improving their offer -- and this took place in their most recent conversation, which was at the GM meetings.
14. The price for offensive help could be high for the Rays.
15. The winter meetings could be busy for the Atlanta Braves, writes David O'Brien.
Contenders that should do nothing.
Spoiler [+]
The current iterations of the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have at least three things in common: all three crafted their own tragic endings to the 2011 season, all three figure to contend again in 2012, and all three teams don't need to do very much in order to do so.
Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that's what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there's no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there's no need for pricey, top-tier signings.
First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.
Given Mitch Moreland's modest upside and wrist problems, there's some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.
On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts -- big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome -- aren't necessary for another run.
As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries -- an inordinate number of injuries -- are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston's major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.
Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball's best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there's no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that's never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren't necessary in the least.
Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they're in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.
On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won't be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there's enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.
While the offense won't be exceptional, there's some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there's also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.
Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes -- as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves -- that's all that's needed to ensure another run.
Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that's what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there's no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there's no need for pricey, top-tier signings.
First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.
Given Mitch Moreland's modest upside and wrist problems, there's some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.
On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts -- big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome -- aren't necessary for another run.
As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries -- an inordinate number of injuries -- are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston's major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.
Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball's best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there's no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that's never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren't necessary in the least.
Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they're in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.
On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won't be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there's enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.
While the offense won't be exceptional, there's some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there's also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.
Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes -- as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves -- that's all that's needed to ensure another run.
Reyes deal begins era of change in NY.
Spoiler [+]
As soon as colleague Enrique Rojas reported the massive push in the Miami Marlins' offer to sign Jose Reyes, the New York Mets were left scrambling to confirm the information for themselves -- and by the time they had, Reyes had agreed to terms with the Marlins. All along, the Mets' feeling was that they were comfortable giving Reyes a deal somewhere in the range of five years and $80 million, but they were not interested in engaging in a bidding war for the shortstop. Sandy Alderson acknowledged that the Marlins' offer was out of their range.
The question now is what direction the Mets should take -- and with David Wright signed through only 2012 with an option for 2013, he is unlikely to be around when the Mets are rebuilt into a contender. It would make complete sense for them to consider offers for the third baseman sometime between now and July 31 to take advantage of his market value.
The Mets are justified for letting the oft-injured Reyes leave, writes John Harper. The Mets have lost their credibility, writes Joel Sherman. From Joel's story:
The Marlins are rebranding, Juan Rodriguez writes. Now they figure to move Hanley Ramirez to third base, and the two will be installed at the top of the Miami order. When healthy and productive, they both perfectly fit the style favored by Ozzie Guillen. It's possible now that the Marlins will look to add Albert Pujols instead of pitching, writes Clark Spencer.
The Marlins have never had a payroll higher than $60 million, and now they owe more than $60 million to five players for next season: Josh Johnson ($13.75 million), Ramirez ($15 million), Reyes (his contract averages out to about $18.5 million per year), Ricky Nolasco ($9 million) and Heath Bell (about $9 million).
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• All along, the Texas Rangers' feeling about C.J. Wilson has been along these lines: They really like him, and they'd like to have him back -- but only if the price is in line with their budget and how they assess his value. And with the Washington Nationals having targeted Wilson to join Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, and bidding aggressively, the lefty may go out of the Rangers' comfort zone.
Which is why Texas' strong interest in the 32-year-old Mark Buehrle makes a lot of sense. He's older than Wilson, and therefore he couldn't command a six-year deal at this stage in his career. But he could give Texas the 200 innings that Wilson has in each of the past two years; Buehrle, after all, has generated more than 200 innings in 11 consecutive seasons.
Buehrle has pitched in the AL in a hitters' park and has been among the most consistent players in the big leagues the past decade. He's pitched effectively in Texas, posting a 3.86 ERA in eight career games in Arlington.
If Buehrle and John Danks depart the Chicago White Sox, there will be massive holes in Chicago's rotation, writes Mark Gonzales.
• Manny Ramirez filed for reinstatement, and he's working out and is ready to take offers. But he may struggle to find a job, primarily because he's 40 and is viewed as a DH-only option by a lot of talent evaluators, but also because he's burned so many bridges through the years. According to a source, it's unlikely but possible that the Tampa Bay Rays will sign him, but beyond that, there were a lot of teams indicating zero interest in Ramirez on Sunday. Dan Duquette, who signed Ramirez for the Boston Red Sox, called the news about his reinstatement "interesting" -- but I can't imagine a manager who would hate the "Manny Being Manny" stuff more than Buck Showalter.
• The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be facing a light market for Pujols. It is mentioned within the story that the Chicago Cubs' reported interest in Pujols is viewed skeptically.
From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:
On Monday, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of its Golden Era Committee balloting. Media reports indicate that the likeliest player to be elected is former Cubs third baseman Ron Santo.
Some career notes for Santo:
• Played 15 MLB seasons from 1960-74 (14 spent with Cubs; played final season with White Sox)
• .277 BA, 342 HR, 1,331 RBIs
• Four career 30-HR seasons
• Nine All-Star appearances
• Five Gold Gloves
• Finished top 5 in MVP voting twice (1967, '69)
• Led NL with 13 triples in 1964
• Cubs broadcaster, 1990-2011
In Cubs franchise history, Santo ranks fifth in games (2,126), fourth in homers (337), fifth in RBIs (1,290) and second in walks (1,071).
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers could be in line for a barren winter. They will look around for a starting pitcher, and among the veteran free agents, the guy who could make the most sense is Aaron Harang. The Dodgers figure to have money available to them during the season, after their next ownership is in place, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they added an expensive player or two during the year.
2. Clayton Kershaw's representatives have had early contact with the Dodgers about a possible long-term deal for the lefty, but there hasn't been any serious negotiating yet.
3. The Angels are bumping up against their budget limits, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
4. Alex Anthopoulos is in the red zone, writes Bob Elliott. Anthopoulos is ready to wheel and deal, writes Richard Griffin.
5. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Laynce Nix to a two-year deal to augment their bench. The Phillies' primary focus in these meetings will be to re-sign Jimmy Rollins, writes Bob Brookover.
6. The Red Sox already have a lot of payroll obligation as these winter meetings begin, writes Brian MacPherson.
7. Theo Epstein is ready to deal, writes Paul Sullivan.
8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are pleased with their current roster, writes Nick Piecoro. Wrote the other day that in the end, there seems to be a good chance that Joe Saunders could come back on a two-year deal for something in the range of $12 million.
9. The Nationals' priorities at the winter meetings are signing a starting pitcher, such as Buehrle, and improving their bench, writes Adam Kilgore. There is no mention of Prince Fielder.
10. The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for answers in the rotation and at first base in these meetings, writes Michael Sanserino.
11. The Kansas City Royals' shopping is nearly done, writes Bob Dutton.
12. Francisco Cordero is unlikely to return to the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
13. Expect the AL Central teams to be busy, writes Tony Paul.
14. The Cleveland Indians will continue to rely on young talent, writes Paul Hoynes. Within this piece, he mentions that it's possible that in the current rush for closers, the Indians would listen to offers for Chris Perez.
15. Doug Melvin scoffs at the notion that he should trade a starting pitcher.
16. The Baltimore Orioles added some baseball veterans to their staff, Dan Connolly writes.
17. The Minnesota Twins are expected to meet with the agent for Michael Cuddyer this week, writes Joe Christensen.
18. Business is happening and the Astros don't have a GM, writes Zachary Levine.
The question now is what direction the Mets should take -- and with David Wright signed through only 2012 with an option for 2013, he is unlikely to be around when the Mets are rebuilt into a contender. It would make complete sense for them to consider offers for the third baseman sometime between now and July 31 to take advantage of his market value.
The Mets are justified for letting the oft-injured Reyes leave, writes John Harper. The Mets have lost their credibility, writes Joel Sherman. From Joel's story:
- Normally one who speaks with a wry smile and an even tone, Alderson turned particularly strident in saying that he does not intend to trade David Wright now and instead wants to find pieces to make the club better.
- "I am not conceding anything about 2012," Alderson said. "We are here [at the Winter Meetings] for the next four days to put the best team out in 2012 with or without Jose Reyes."
- Alderson is not backing down from the challenge. Fine. But the most important victories now have to be about competence; about doing enough positives as to begin to win back faith en route to winning games.
The Marlins are rebranding, Juan Rodriguez writes. Now they figure to move Hanley Ramirez to third base, and the two will be installed at the top of the Miami order. When healthy and productive, they both perfectly fit the style favored by Ozzie Guillen. It's possible now that the Marlins will look to add Albert Pujols instead of pitching, writes Clark Spencer.
The Marlins have never had a payroll higher than $60 million, and now they owe more than $60 million to five players for next season: Josh Johnson ($13.75 million), Ramirez ($15 million), Reyes (his contract averages out to about $18.5 million per year), Ricky Nolasco ($9 million) and Heath Bell (about $9 million).
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• All along, the Texas Rangers' feeling about C.J. Wilson has been along these lines: They really like him, and they'd like to have him back -- but only if the price is in line with their budget and how they assess his value. And with the Washington Nationals having targeted Wilson to join Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, and bidding aggressively, the lefty may go out of the Rangers' comfort zone.
Which is why Texas' strong interest in the 32-year-old Mark Buehrle makes a lot of sense. He's older than Wilson, and therefore he couldn't command a six-year deal at this stage in his career. But he could give Texas the 200 innings that Wilson has in each of the past two years; Buehrle, after all, has generated more than 200 innings in 11 consecutive seasons.
Buehrle has pitched in the AL in a hitters' park and has been among the most consistent players in the big leagues the past decade. He's pitched effectively in Texas, posting a 3.86 ERA in eight career games in Arlington.
If Buehrle and John Danks depart the Chicago White Sox, there will be massive holes in Chicago's rotation, writes Mark Gonzales.
• Manny Ramirez filed for reinstatement, and he's working out and is ready to take offers. But he may struggle to find a job, primarily because he's 40 and is viewed as a DH-only option by a lot of talent evaluators, but also because he's burned so many bridges through the years. According to a source, it's unlikely but possible that the Tampa Bay Rays will sign him, but beyond that, there were a lot of teams indicating zero interest in Ramirez on Sunday. Dan Duquette, who signed Ramirez for the Boston Red Sox, called the news about his reinstatement "interesting" -- but I can't imagine a manager who would hate the "Manny Being Manny" stuff more than Buck Showalter.
• The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be facing a light market for Pujols. It is mentioned within the story that the Chicago Cubs' reported interest in Pujols is viewed skeptically.
From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:
On Monday, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of its Golden Era Committee balloting. Media reports indicate that the likeliest player to be elected is former Cubs third baseman Ron Santo.
Some career notes for Santo:
• Played 15 MLB seasons from 1960-74 (14 spent with Cubs; played final season with White Sox)
• .277 BA, 342 HR, 1,331 RBIs
• Four career 30-HR seasons
• Nine All-Star appearances
• Five Gold Gloves
• Finished top 5 in MVP voting twice (1967, '69)
• Led NL with 13 triples in 1964
• Cubs broadcaster, 1990-2011
In Cubs franchise history, Santo ranks fifth in games (2,126), fourth in homers (337), fifth in RBIs (1,290) and second in walks (1,071).
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Los Angeles Dodgers could be in line for a barren winter. They will look around for a starting pitcher, and among the veteran free agents, the guy who could make the most sense is Aaron Harang. The Dodgers figure to have money available to them during the season, after their next ownership is in place, so it wouldn't be a surprise if they added an expensive player or two during the year.
2. Clayton Kershaw's representatives have had early contact with the Dodgers about a possible long-term deal for the lefty, but there hasn't been any serious negotiating yet.
3. The Angels are bumping up against their budget limits, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
4. Alex Anthopoulos is in the red zone, writes Bob Elliott. Anthopoulos is ready to wheel and deal, writes Richard Griffin.
5. The Philadelphia Phillies signed Laynce Nix to a two-year deal to augment their bench. The Phillies' primary focus in these meetings will be to re-sign Jimmy Rollins, writes Bob Brookover.
6. The Red Sox already have a lot of payroll obligation as these winter meetings begin, writes Brian MacPherson.
7. Theo Epstein is ready to deal, writes Paul Sullivan.
8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are pleased with their current roster, writes Nick Piecoro. Wrote the other day that in the end, there seems to be a good chance that Joe Saunders could come back on a two-year deal for something in the range of $12 million.
9. The Nationals' priorities at the winter meetings are signing a starting pitcher, such as Buehrle, and improving their bench, writes Adam Kilgore. There is no mention of Prince Fielder.
10. The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for answers in the rotation and at first base in these meetings, writes Michael Sanserino.
11. The Kansas City Royals' shopping is nearly done, writes Bob Dutton.
12. Francisco Cordero is unlikely to return to the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Fay.
13. Expect the AL Central teams to be busy, writes Tony Paul.
14. The Cleveland Indians will continue to rely on young talent, writes Paul Hoynes. Within this piece, he mentions that it's possible that in the current rush for closers, the Indians would listen to offers for Chris Perez.
15. Doug Melvin scoffs at the notion that he should trade a starting pitcher.
16. The Baltimore Orioles added some baseball veterans to their staff, Dan Connolly writes.
17. The Minnesota Twins are expected to meet with the agent for Michael Cuddyer this week, writes Joe Christensen.
18. Business is happening and the Astros don't have a GM, writes Zachary Levine.
Marlins get a potential bargin in Jose Reyes.
Jose Reyes and other big money shortstops.
Spoiler [+]
Before the off-season started, we asked you guys to project how much the primary free agents would sign for this winter. The FanGraphs Crowd tabbed Jose Reyes for a six year, $101 million contract. Tonight, he signed with the Marlins for six years and $106 million, so you guys can count this as a feather in your cap — the crowd figured out what the market for Reyes would be quite well.
So, now, the question is simply whether the Marlins were wise to throw $106 million at Reyes to begin with. Paul Swydan tackled how Reyes would fit into the Marlins roster a few weeks ago, and covered those issues pretty well. So instead, let’s talk about Reyes’ value as a player, and whether giving him this much guaranteed money is a good idea.
First off, I don’t think there’s any question that Jose Reyes is legitimately one of the very best players in baseball. Despite breaking into the majors in 2003 at age 20 and struggling to hit big league pitching at a point when most guys are still working their way up through the minors, he has a career 112 wRC+ while playing a quality defensive shortstop. The average wRC+ for shortstops in baseball during Reyes’ career is 87 by the way, so you can essentially say that he’s performed at an offensive level 28 percent better than his peers in his career to date. The list of players who can sustain that kind of performance over a nine-year stretch is very small.
The numbers are even more impressive if you look at his performance levels since 2006, when he learned a modicum of plate discipline and added legitimate power to his arsenal. His wRC+ over that timeframe is 120, ranking second in baseball at the position behind only now-former-shortstop Hanley Ramirez. To put that in further context, Adam Dunn‘s wRC+ since 2006 is 122. Reyes has performed at a similar offensive level to Dunn over the past six years, and he’s done it while playing shortstop.
This kind of offensive performance at a premium position is exceedingly valuable, which is why Reyes has four seasons of at least +5.8 WAR in the past six years. The devil is always in the details, though, and in Reyes’ case, the details are those other two years. It’s impossible to talk about Reyes’ value without also talking about his 2009 and 2010 seasons, where he managed just 779 total plate appearances and +3.7 WAR between both years, struggling with injuries and reduced performance even when he was on the field.
Without those injuries, Reyes could have made a case for a contract twice the size of the one he signed with Miami, but seemingly chronic hamstring problems have earned him the label of a high-risk player. The value is certainly there when he’s on the field, but his ability to stay on the field enough to justify a big contract is essentially the question that will determine whether the Marlins made the right call today. Performance isn’t the issue, as a full-throttle Jose Reyes is clearly worth in excess of $18 million per season — in his case, it’s simply a question of health.
So, how many games does Reyes need to play per season to justify his contract? To answer that, we can run a calculation based on a few assumptions. While it’s too early in the off-season to say exactly what the market price for a win is, the signings we’ve seen indicate that it’s still in the $5 million range — it’s certainly no less than $4 million, and might be as high as $6 million — but we’ll stick with $5 million for now and you can simply shift the numbers slightly in either direction if you feel that it’s closer to four or six based on your own assumptions. Inflation is harder to peg, but an assumption of 5% annual inflation over the next six years seems likely to be in the ballpark at least, and again, you can always substitute a different number if you don’t like the 5% estimate.
Here’s essentially what Reyes would need to produce to justify this contract as fair market price, based on $5 million per win and 5% annual inflation over the life of the contract:
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][th=""]$/WAR[/th][th=""]Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]3.53[/td][td]$5.00[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]3.37[/td][td]$5.25[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td]3.20[/td][td]$5.51[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td]3.05[/td][td]$5.79[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td]2.91[/td][td]$6.08[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2017[/td][td]2.77[/td][td]$6.38[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][/table]
At that price, the Marlins are essentially paying for a total of +19 WAR over the next six years. What does +19 WAR from a shortstop look like over a six year period?
Well, from 2006 to 2011, it looked a lot like J.J. Hardy — another guy who produced at a good rate while spending a decent amount of time nursing injuries. Over the last six years, Hardy managed 2,813 plate appearances, or about 470 per season. That’s about as few as you can realistically expect from Reyes, even if you think his leg problems are going to continue to haunt him going forward, and yet Hardy was able to accumulate +18.5 WAR over a six year period while averaging fewer than 500 PA per season.
That’s what a 100 wRC+ and high quality defense (+50.2 UZR) at a premium position will do for a player. Most metrics don’t value Reyes’ defense quite as highly, but he should be able to clear the league-average-hitter bar fairly easily — even the broken 2010 Reyes managed a 104 wRC+ — and a healthy Reyes is capable of far, far more. So it seems pretty clear that if Reyes racks up 2,800 plate appearances over the next six years, he’ll earn the money Miami is paying him. If he gets much over 3,000 PA, he’ll start to look like a legitimate bargain.
This is a pretty low bar to clear, honestly. Reyes could miss 40 to 50 games per season and still rack up 3,000 PA over the next six years. The Marlins have essentially signed him to a contract that gives him room to spend more than a month each year on the DL while still getting what they’ve paid for. It’s possible that they’ll get exactly that, and Reyes will produce value for five months while watching on the sidelines for an extended period each year, but I don’t think anyone has figured out how to forecast injury projections so well that we should recognize that there isn’t real potential value to be had in this deal.
If Reyes manages to stay reasonably healthy for most of the next six years, the Marlins are going to get a lot of surplus value from this contract. They’ve signed an elite player who isn’t yet 30 years old and whose skillset historically ages quite well. He doesn’t have to be the next ironhorse to earn this contract — he just has to stay away from something like a skillset-altering leg injury. Essentially, if he can avoid the Grady Sizemore career path, he’s a pretty good bet to be worth this contract and then some.
The Marlins should be commended for their willingness to take a risk on Reyes. The move isn’t without its potential downfalls, but the value is certainly there, and Reyes makes them a substantially better team.
So, now, the question is simply whether the Marlins were wise to throw $106 million at Reyes to begin with. Paul Swydan tackled how Reyes would fit into the Marlins roster a few weeks ago, and covered those issues pretty well. So instead, let’s talk about Reyes’ value as a player, and whether giving him this much guaranteed money is a good idea.
First off, I don’t think there’s any question that Jose Reyes is legitimately one of the very best players in baseball. Despite breaking into the majors in 2003 at age 20 and struggling to hit big league pitching at a point when most guys are still working their way up through the minors, he has a career 112 wRC+ while playing a quality defensive shortstop. The average wRC+ for shortstops in baseball during Reyes’ career is 87 by the way, so you can essentially say that he’s performed at an offensive level 28 percent better than his peers in his career to date. The list of players who can sustain that kind of performance over a nine-year stretch is very small.
The numbers are even more impressive if you look at his performance levels since 2006, when he learned a modicum of plate discipline and added legitimate power to his arsenal. His wRC+ over that timeframe is 120, ranking second in baseball at the position behind only now-former-shortstop Hanley Ramirez. To put that in further context, Adam Dunn‘s wRC+ since 2006 is 122. Reyes has performed at a similar offensive level to Dunn over the past six years, and he’s done it while playing shortstop.
This kind of offensive performance at a premium position is exceedingly valuable, which is why Reyes has four seasons of at least +5.8 WAR in the past six years. The devil is always in the details, though, and in Reyes’ case, the details are those other two years. It’s impossible to talk about Reyes’ value without also talking about his 2009 and 2010 seasons, where he managed just 779 total plate appearances and +3.7 WAR between both years, struggling with injuries and reduced performance even when he was on the field.
Without those injuries, Reyes could have made a case for a contract twice the size of the one he signed with Miami, but seemingly chronic hamstring problems have earned him the label of a high-risk player. The value is certainly there when he’s on the field, but his ability to stay on the field enough to justify a big contract is essentially the question that will determine whether the Marlins made the right call today. Performance isn’t the issue, as a full-throttle Jose Reyes is clearly worth in excess of $18 million per season — in his case, it’s simply a question of health.
So, how many games does Reyes need to play per season to justify his contract? To answer that, we can run a calculation based on a few assumptions. While it’s too early in the off-season to say exactly what the market price for a win is, the signings we’ve seen indicate that it’s still in the $5 million range — it’s certainly no less than $4 million, and might be as high as $6 million — but we’ll stick with $5 million for now and you can simply shift the numbers slightly in either direction if you feel that it’s closer to four or six based on your own assumptions. Inflation is harder to peg, but an assumption of 5% annual inflation over the next six years seems likely to be in the ballpark at least, and again, you can always substitute a different number if you don’t like the 5% estimate.
Here’s essentially what Reyes would need to produce to justify this contract as fair market price, based on $5 million per win and 5% annual inflation over the life of the contract:
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][th=""]$/WAR[/th][th=""]Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]3.53[/td][td]$5.00[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]3.37[/td][td]$5.25[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td]3.20[/td][td]$5.51[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td]3.05[/td][td]$5.79[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td]2.91[/td][td]$6.08[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2017[/td][td]2.77[/td][td]$6.38[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][/table]
At that price, the Marlins are essentially paying for a total of +19 WAR over the next six years. What does +19 WAR from a shortstop look like over a six year period?
Well, from 2006 to 2011, it looked a lot like J.J. Hardy — another guy who produced at a good rate while spending a decent amount of time nursing injuries. Over the last six years, Hardy managed 2,813 plate appearances, or about 470 per season. That’s about as few as you can realistically expect from Reyes, even if you think his leg problems are going to continue to haunt him going forward, and yet Hardy was able to accumulate +18.5 WAR over a six year period while averaging fewer than 500 PA per season.
That’s what a 100 wRC+ and high quality defense (+50.2 UZR) at a premium position will do for a player. Most metrics don’t value Reyes’ defense quite as highly, but he should be able to clear the league-average-hitter bar fairly easily — even the broken 2010 Reyes managed a 104 wRC+ — and a healthy Reyes is capable of far, far more. So it seems pretty clear that if Reyes racks up 2,800 plate appearances over the next six years, he’ll earn the money Miami is paying him. If he gets much over 3,000 PA, he’ll start to look like a legitimate bargain.
This is a pretty low bar to clear, honestly. Reyes could miss 40 to 50 games per season and still rack up 3,000 PA over the next six years. The Marlins have essentially signed him to a contract that gives him room to spend more than a month each year on the DL while still getting what they’ve paid for. It’s possible that they’ll get exactly that, and Reyes will produce value for five months while watching on the sidelines for an extended period each year, but I don’t think anyone has figured out how to forecast injury projections so well that we should recognize that there isn’t real potential value to be had in this deal.
If Reyes manages to stay reasonably healthy for most of the next six years, the Marlins are going to get a lot of surplus value from this contract. They’ve signed an elite player who isn’t yet 30 years old and whose skillset historically ages quite well. He doesn’t have to be the next ironhorse to earn this contract — he just has to stay away from something like a skillset-altering leg injury. Essentially, if he can avoid the Grady Sizemore career path, he’s a pretty good bet to be worth this contract and then some.
The Marlins should be commended for their willingness to take a risk on Reyes. The move isn’t without its potential downfalls, but the value is certainly there, and Reyes makes them a substantially better team.
Jose Reyes and other big money shortstops.
Spoiler [+]
The Marlins made the first big move of the winter meetings Sunday night, agreeing to sign Jose Reyes to a six-year contract worth $106 million. It’s obviously the largest contract in franchise history, more than doubling the four-year, $52 million pact signed by Carlos Delgado prior to the 2005 season. It’s also the second largest contract ever given to a free agent shortstop, and the fourth largest ever given to a shortstop overall.
Reyes joined some exclusive company with his contract, becoming just the fourth shortstop to secure a nine-figure contract. Two of the other three guys are first ballot Hall of Famers, and the third is one of the five best players in the world. The Marlins are hoping Reyes will live up to those standards during the next six years, as well as spark interest in Miami’s Latin American community. Here is a breakdown of how four of baseball’s wealthiest shortstops performed during the life of their contract…
Alex Rodriguez – ten years, $252 million
For all intents and purposes, A-Rod was the perfect free agent when he hit the open market after the 2000 season. He was a 25-year-old shortstop that played above-average defense and already had three 8+ WAR seasons and five 4.5+ WAR seasons to credit. Tom Hicks and the Rangers took a lot of heat for bidding against themselves and overpaying, but at least they overpaid for the right kind of player — an up-the-middle superstar in his mid-20′s.
A-Rod’s tenure with the Rangers lasted just three years, during which he played in 485 of 486 possible games, racked up 27.1 WAR, and won an MVP Award (probably should have been two). He voluntarily moved to third base to facilitate his trade to the Yankees, costing himself a handful of runs a year in positional adjustment. Rodriguez won two more MVP Awards in New York and picked up another 30 WAR over the next four seasons before opting out of the final three years of his contract. A-Rod was paid $171 million during the seven years of the contract and provided approximately $181.9 million in value with his on-field production.
Derek Jeter – ten years, $189 million
Unlike Reyes and A-Rod, Jeter was not a free agent when this deal was signed (before the 2001 season). The Yankees and their eventual captain agreed to this contract one year before he was scheduled to hit free agency, one year after they had tentatively agreed to a seven-year, $118.5 million deal. Believe it or not, George Steinbrenner did not want to set a salary record, so the seven-year agreement fell through and was replaced by a one-year, $10 million pact.
Jeter was 26 years old when he landed the contract and was coming off four straight 3.8+ WAR seasons, including 6.5 and 7.5 WAR in 1998 and 1999, respectively. As you know, Jeter’s offense was never a problem, it was his defense. He produced 246.3 runs with his bat and baserunning during the life of his contract, but gave back 59.5 runs with his glove. All told, Jeter produced 47.8 WAR during his deal, which was worth approximately $169 million in on-field value.
Troy Tulowitzki – seven years, $134 million
Depending on who you ask, Tulo signed either a seven-year, $134 million contract, or a ten-year, $157.75 million contract. I tend to fall into the former category because he was already under contract for $23.75 million from 2011-2013, but we’re arguing technicalities. The Rockies extended their franchise player three years before he was scheduled to hit free agency, and more than likely four years before he was scheduled to hit free agency thanks to the 2014 club option in the original deal.
Anyway, Tulowitzki — who wears number two because he idolized Jeter growing up; I’m sure that makes Derek feel old — had produced three 5.6+ WAR seasons in his first four years as a big leaguer at the time of the huge extension. He tacked on another 6.3 WAR in 2011. Colorado did take on serious risk with the extension, but like I said with A-Rod, a superstar up-the-middle player in his mid-20′s is a pretty good player to gamble on.
Miguel Tejada – six-years, $72 million
Jeter, A-Rod, and Nomar Garciaparra got a lot of attention as the “Big Three
Reyes joined some exclusive company with his contract, becoming just the fourth shortstop to secure a nine-figure contract. Two of the other three guys are first ballot Hall of Famers, and the third is one of the five best players in the world. The Marlins are hoping Reyes will live up to those standards during the next six years, as well as spark interest in Miami’s Latin American community. Here is a breakdown of how four of baseball’s wealthiest shortstops performed during the life of their contract…
Alex Rodriguez – ten years, $252 million
For all intents and purposes, A-Rod was the perfect free agent when he hit the open market after the 2000 season. He was a 25-year-old shortstop that played above-average defense and already had three 8+ WAR seasons and five 4.5+ WAR seasons to credit. Tom Hicks and the Rangers took a lot of heat for bidding against themselves and overpaying, but at least they overpaid for the right kind of player — an up-the-middle superstar in his mid-20′s.
A-Rod’s tenure with the Rangers lasted just three years, during which he played in 485 of 486 possible games, racked up 27.1 WAR, and won an MVP Award (probably should have been two). He voluntarily moved to third base to facilitate his trade to the Yankees, costing himself a handful of runs a year in positional adjustment. Rodriguez won two more MVP Awards in New York and picked up another 30 WAR over the next four seasons before opting out of the final three years of his contract. A-Rod was paid $171 million during the seven years of the contract and provided approximately $181.9 million in value with his on-field production.
Derek Jeter – ten years, $189 million
Unlike Reyes and A-Rod, Jeter was not a free agent when this deal was signed (before the 2001 season). The Yankees and their eventual captain agreed to this contract one year before he was scheduled to hit free agency, one year after they had tentatively agreed to a seven-year, $118.5 million deal. Believe it or not, George Steinbrenner did not want to set a salary record, so the seven-year agreement fell through and was replaced by a one-year, $10 million pact.
Jeter was 26 years old when he landed the contract and was coming off four straight 3.8+ WAR seasons, including 6.5 and 7.5 WAR in 1998 and 1999, respectively. As you know, Jeter’s offense was never a problem, it was his defense. He produced 246.3 runs with his bat and baserunning during the life of his contract, but gave back 59.5 runs with his glove. All told, Jeter produced 47.8 WAR during his deal, which was worth approximately $169 million in on-field value.
Troy Tulowitzki – seven years, $134 million
Depending on who you ask, Tulo signed either a seven-year, $134 million contract, or a ten-year, $157.75 million contract. I tend to fall into the former category because he was already under contract for $23.75 million from 2011-2013, but we’re arguing technicalities. The Rockies extended their franchise player three years before he was scheduled to hit free agency, and more than likely four years before he was scheduled to hit free agency thanks to the 2014 club option in the original deal.
Anyway, Tulowitzki — who wears number two because he idolized Jeter growing up; I’m sure that makes Derek feel old — had produced three 5.6+ WAR seasons in his first four years as a big leaguer at the time of the huge extension. He tacked on another 6.3 WAR in 2011. Colorado did take on serious risk with the extension, but like I said with A-Rod, a superstar up-the-middle player in his mid-20′s is a pretty good player to gamble on.
Miguel Tejada – six-years, $72 million
Jeter, A-Rod, and Nomar Garciaparra got a lot of attention as the “Big Three
Marlins get a potential bargin in Jose Reyes.
Jose Reyes and other big money shortstops.
Spoiler [+]
Before the off-season started, we asked you guys to project how much the primary free agents would sign for this winter. The FanGraphs Crowd tabbed Jose Reyes for a six year, $101 million contract. Tonight, he signed with the Marlins for six years and $106 million, so you guys can count this as a feather in your cap — the crowd figured out what the market for Reyes would be quite well.
So, now, the question is simply whether the Marlins were wise to throw $106 million at Reyes to begin with. Paul Swydan tackled how Reyes would fit into the Marlins roster a few weeks ago, and covered those issues pretty well. So instead, let’s talk about Reyes’ value as a player, and whether giving him this much guaranteed money is a good idea.
First off, I don’t think there’s any question that Jose Reyes is legitimately one of the very best players in baseball. Despite breaking into the majors in 2003 at age 20 and struggling to hit big league pitching at a point when most guys are still working their way up through the minors, he has a career 112 wRC+ while playing a quality defensive shortstop. The average wRC+ for shortstops in baseball during Reyes’ career is 87 by the way, so you can essentially say that he’s performed at an offensive level 28 percent better than his peers in his career to date. The list of players who can sustain that kind of performance over a nine-year stretch is very small.
The numbers are even more impressive if you look at his performance levels since 2006, when he learned a modicum of plate discipline and added legitimate power to his arsenal. His wRC+ over that timeframe is 120, ranking second in baseball at the position behind only now-former-shortstop Hanley Ramirez. To put that in further context, Adam Dunn‘s wRC+ since 2006 is 122. Reyes has performed at a similar offensive level to Dunn over the past six years, and he’s done it while playing shortstop.
This kind of offensive performance at a premium position is exceedingly valuable, which is why Reyes has four seasons of at least +5.8 WAR in the past six years. The devil is always in the details, though, and in Reyes’ case, the details are those other two years. It’s impossible to talk about Reyes’ value without also talking about his 2009 and 2010 seasons, where he managed just 779 total plate appearances and +3.7 WAR between both years, struggling with injuries and reduced performance even when he was on the field.
Without those injuries, Reyes could have made a case for a contract twice the size of the one he signed with Miami, but seemingly chronic hamstring problems have earned him the label of a high-risk player. The value is certainly there when he’s on the field, but his ability to stay on the field enough to justify a big contract is essentially the question that will determine whether the Marlins made the right call today. Performance isn’t the issue, as a full-throttle Jose Reyes is clearly worth in excess of $18 million per season — in his case, it’s simply a question of health.
So, how many games does Reyes need to play per season to justify his contract? To answer that, we can run a calculation based on a few assumptions. While it’s too early in the off-season to say exactly what the market price for a win is, the signings we’ve seen indicate that it’s still in the $5 million range — it’s certainly no less than $4 million, and might be as high as $6 million — but we’ll stick with $5 million for now and you can simply shift the numbers slightly in either direction if you feel that it’s closer to four or six based on your own assumptions. Inflation is harder to peg, but an assumption of 5% annual inflation over the next six years seems likely to be in the ballpark at least, and again, you can always substitute a different number if you don’t like the 5% estimate.
Here’s essentially what Reyes would need to produce to justify this contract as fair market price, based on $5 million per win and 5% annual inflation over the life of the contract:
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][th=""]$/WAR[/th][th=""]Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]3.53[/td][td]$5.00[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]3.37[/td][td]$5.25[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td]3.20[/td][td]$5.51[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td]3.05[/td][td]$5.79[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td]2.91[/td][td]$6.08[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2017[/td][td]2.77[/td][td]$6.38[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][/table]
At that price, the Marlins are essentially paying for a total of +19 WAR over the next six years. What does +19 WAR from a shortstop look like over a six year period?
Well, from 2006 to 2011, it looked a lot like J.J. Hardy — another guy who produced at a good rate while spending a decent amount of time nursing injuries. Over the last six years, Hardy managed 2,813 plate appearances, or about 470 per season. That’s about as few as you can realistically expect from Reyes, even if you think his leg problems are going to continue to haunt him going forward, and yet Hardy was able to accumulate +18.5 WAR over a six year period while averaging fewer than 500 PA per season.
That’s what a 100 wRC+ and high quality defense (+50.2 UZR) at a premium position will do for a player. Most metrics don’t value Reyes’ defense quite as highly, but he should be able to clear the league-average-hitter bar fairly easily — even the broken 2010 Reyes managed a 104 wRC+ — and a healthy Reyes is capable of far, far more. So it seems pretty clear that if Reyes racks up 2,800 plate appearances over the next six years, he’ll earn the money Miami is paying him. If he gets much over 3,000 PA, he’ll start to look like a legitimate bargain.
This is a pretty low bar to clear, honestly. Reyes could miss 40 to 50 games per season and still rack up 3,000 PA over the next six years. The Marlins have essentially signed him to a contract that gives him room to spend more than a month each year on the DL while still getting what they’ve paid for. It’s possible that they’ll get exactly that, and Reyes will produce value for five months while watching on the sidelines for an extended period each year, but I don’t think anyone has figured out how to forecast injury projections so well that we should recognize that there isn’t real potential value to be had in this deal.
If Reyes manages to stay reasonably healthy for most of the next six years, the Marlins are going to get a lot of surplus value from this contract. They’ve signed an elite player who isn’t yet 30 years old and whose skillset historically ages quite well. He doesn’t have to be the next ironhorse to earn this contract — he just has to stay away from something like a skillset-altering leg injury. Essentially, if he can avoid the Grady Sizemore career path, he’s a pretty good bet to be worth this contract and then some.
The Marlins should be commended for their willingness to take a risk on Reyes. The move isn’t without its potential downfalls, but the value is certainly there, and Reyes makes them a substantially better team.
So, now, the question is simply whether the Marlins were wise to throw $106 million at Reyes to begin with. Paul Swydan tackled how Reyes would fit into the Marlins roster a few weeks ago, and covered those issues pretty well. So instead, let’s talk about Reyes’ value as a player, and whether giving him this much guaranteed money is a good idea.
First off, I don’t think there’s any question that Jose Reyes is legitimately one of the very best players in baseball. Despite breaking into the majors in 2003 at age 20 and struggling to hit big league pitching at a point when most guys are still working their way up through the minors, he has a career 112 wRC+ while playing a quality defensive shortstop. The average wRC+ for shortstops in baseball during Reyes’ career is 87 by the way, so you can essentially say that he’s performed at an offensive level 28 percent better than his peers in his career to date. The list of players who can sustain that kind of performance over a nine-year stretch is very small.
The numbers are even more impressive if you look at his performance levels since 2006, when he learned a modicum of plate discipline and added legitimate power to his arsenal. His wRC+ over that timeframe is 120, ranking second in baseball at the position behind only now-former-shortstop Hanley Ramirez. To put that in further context, Adam Dunn‘s wRC+ since 2006 is 122. Reyes has performed at a similar offensive level to Dunn over the past six years, and he’s done it while playing shortstop.
This kind of offensive performance at a premium position is exceedingly valuable, which is why Reyes has four seasons of at least +5.8 WAR in the past six years. The devil is always in the details, though, and in Reyes’ case, the details are those other two years. It’s impossible to talk about Reyes’ value without also talking about his 2009 and 2010 seasons, where he managed just 779 total plate appearances and +3.7 WAR between both years, struggling with injuries and reduced performance even when he was on the field.
Without those injuries, Reyes could have made a case for a contract twice the size of the one he signed with Miami, but seemingly chronic hamstring problems have earned him the label of a high-risk player. The value is certainly there when he’s on the field, but his ability to stay on the field enough to justify a big contract is essentially the question that will determine whether the Marlins made the right call today. Performance isn’t the issue, as a full-throttle Jose Reyes is clearly worth in excess of $18 million per season — in his case, it’s simply a question of health.
So, how many games does Reyes need to play per season to justify his contract? To answer that, we can run a calculation based on a few assumptions. While it’s too early in the off-season to say exactly what the market price for a win is, the signings we’ve seen indicate that it’s still in the $5 million range — it’s certainly no less than $4 million, and might be as high as $6 million — but we’ll stick with $5 million for now and you can simply shift the numbers slightly in either direction if you feel that it’s closer to four or six based on your own assumptions. Inflation is harder to peg, but an assumption of 5% annual inflation over the next six years seems likely to be in the ballpark at least, and again, you can always substitute a different number if you don’t like the 5% estimate.
Here’s essentially what Reyes would need to produce to justify this contract as fair market price, based on $5 million per win and 5% annual inflation over the life of the contract:
[table][tr][th=""]Year[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][th=""]$/WAR[/th][th=""]Value[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]3.53[/td][td]$5.00[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]3.37[/td][td]$5.25[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td]3.20[/td][td]$5.51[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td]3.05[/td][td]$5.79[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td]2.91[/td][td]$6.08[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][tr][td]2017[/td][td]2.77[/td][td]$6.38[/td][td]$17.67[/td][/tr][/table]
At that price, the Marlins are essentially paying for a total of +19 WAR over the next six years. What does +19 WAR from a shortstop look like over a six year period?
Well, from 2006 to 2011, it looked a lot like J.J. Hardy — another guy who produced at a good rate while spending a decent amount of time nursing injuries. Over the last six years, Hardy managed 2,813 plate appearances, or about 470 per season. That’s about as few as you can realistically expect from Reyes, even if you think his leg problems are going to continue to haunt him going forward, and yet Hardy was able to accumulate +18.5 WAR over a six year period while averaging fewer than 500 PA per season.
That’s what a 100 wRC+ and high quality defense (+50.2 UZR) at a premium position will do for a player. Most metrics don’t value Reyes’ defense quite as highly, but he should be able to clear the league-average-hitter bar fairly easily — even the broken 2010 Reyes managed a 104 wRC+ — and a healthy Reyes is capable of far, far more. So it seems pretty clear that if Reyes racks up 2,800 plate appearances over the next six years, he’ll earn the money Miami is paying him. If he gets much over 3,000 PA, he’ll start to look like a legitimate bargain.
This is a pretty low bar to clear, honestly. Reyes could miss 40 to 50 games per season and still rack up 3,000 PA over the next six years. The Marlins have essentially signed him to a contract that gives him room to spend more than a month each year on the DL while still getting what they’ve paid for. It’s possible that they’ll get exactly that, and Reyes will produce value for five months while watching on the sidelines for an extended period each year, but I don’t think anyone has figured out how to forecast injury projections so well that we should recognize that there isn’t real potential value to be had in this deal.
If Reyes manages to stay reasonably healthy for most of the next six years, the Marlins are going to get a lot of surplus value from this contract. They’ve signed an elite player who isn’t yet 30 years old and whose skillset historically ages quite well. He doesn’t have to be the next ironhorse to earn this contract — he just has to stay away from something like a skillset-altering leg injury. Essentially, if he can avoid the Grady Sizemore career path, he’s a pretty good bet to be worth this contract and then some.
The Marlins should be commended for their willingness to take a risk on Reyes. The move isn’t without its potential downfalls, but the value is certainly there, and Reyes makes them a substantially better team.
Jose Reyes and other big money shortstops.
Spoiler [+]
The Marlins made the first big move of the winter meetings Sunday night, agreeing to sign Jose Reyes to a six-year contract worth $106 million. It’s obviously the largest contract in franchise history, more than doubling the four-year, $52 million pact signed by Carlos Delgado prior to the 2005 season. It’s also the second largest contract ever given to a free agent shortstop, and the fourth largest ever given to a shortstop overall.
Reyes joined some exclusive company with his contract, becoming just the fourth shortstop to secure a nine-figure contract. Two of the other three guys are first ballot Hall of Famers, and the third is one of the five best players in the world. The Marlins are hoping Reyes will live up to those standards during the next six years, as well as spark interest in Miami’s Latin American community. Here is a breakdown of how four of baseball’s wealthiest shortstops performed during the life of their contract…
Alex Rodriguez – ten years, $252 million
For all intents and purposes, A-Rod was the perfect free agent when he hit the open market after the 2000 season. He was a 25-year-old shortstop that played above-average defense and already had three 8+ WAR seasons and five 4.5+ WAR seasons to credit. Tom Hicks and the Rangers took a lot of heat for bidding against themselves and overpaying, but at least they overpaid for the right kind of player — an up-the-middle superstar in his mid-20′s.
A-Rod’s tenure with the Rangers lasted just three years, during which he played in 485 of 486 possible games, racked up 27.1 WAR, and won an MVP Award (probably should have been two). He voluntarily moved to third base to facilitate his trade to the Yankees, costing himself a handful of runs a year in positional adjustment. Rodriguez won two more MVP Awards in New York and picked up another 30 WAR over the next four seasons before opting out of the final three years of his contract. A-Rod was paid $171 million during the seven years of the contract and provided approximately $181.9 million in value with his on-field production.
Derek Jeter – ten years, $189 million
Unlike Reyes and A-Rod, Jeter was not a free agent when this deal was signed (before the 2001 season). The Yankees and their eventual captain agreed to this contract one year before he was scheduled to hit free agency, one year after they had tentatively agreed to a seven-year, $118.5 million deal. Believe it or not, George Steinbrenner did not want to set a salary record, so the seven-year agreement fell through and was replaced by a one-year, $10 million pact.
Jeter was 26 years old when he landed the contract and was coming off four straight 3.8+ WAR seasons, including 6.5 and 7.5 WAR in 1998 and 1999, respectively. As you know, Jeter’s offense was never a problem, it was his defense. He produced 246.3 runs with his bat and baserunning during the life of his contract, but gave back 59.5 runs with his glove. All told, Jeter produced 47.8 WAR during his deal, which was worth approximately $169 million in on-field value.
Troy Tulowitzki – seven years, $134 million
Depending on who you ask, Tulo signed either a seven-year, $134 million contract, or a ten-year, $157.75 million contract. I tend to fall into the former category because he was already under contract for $23.75 million from 2011-2013, but we’re arguing technicalities. The Rockies extended their franchise player three years before he was scheduled to hit free agency, and more than likely four years before he was scheduled to hit free agency thanks to the 2014 club option in the original deal.
Anyway, Tulowitzki — who wears number two because he idolized Jeter growing up; I’m sure that makes Derek feel old — had produced three 5.6+ WAR seasons in his first four years as a big leaguer at the time of the huge extension. He tacked on another 6.3 WAR in 2011. Colorado did take on serious risk with the extension, but like I said with A-Rod, a superstar up-the-middle player in his mid-20′s is a pretty good player to gamble on.
Miguel Tejada – six-years, $72 million
Jeter, A-Rod, and Nomar Garciaparra got a lot of attention as the “Big Three
Reyes joined some exclusive company with his contract, becoming just the fourth shortstop to secure a nine-figure contract. Two of the other three guys are first ballot Hall of Famers, and the third is one of the five best players in the world. The Marlins are hoping Reyes will live up to those standards during the next six years, as well as spark interest in Miami’s Latin American community. Here is a breakdown of how four of baseball’s wealthiest shortstops performed during the life of their contract…
Alex Rodriguez – ten years, $252 million
For all intents and purposes, A-Rod was the perfect free agent when he hit the open market after the 2000 season. He was a 25-year-old shortstop that played above-average defense and already had three 8+ WAR seasons and five 4.5+ WAR seasons to credit. Tom Hicks and the Rangers took a lot of heat for bidding against themselves and overpaying, but at least they overpaid for the right kind of player — an up-the-middle superstar in his mid-20′s.
A-Rod’s tenure with the Rangers lasted just three years, during which he played in 485 of 486 possible games, racked up 27.1 WAR, and won an MVP Award (probably should have been two). He voluntarily moved to third base to facilitate his trade to the Yankees, costing himself a handful of runs a year in positional adjustment. Rodriguez won two more MVP Awards in New York and picked up another 30 WAR over the next four seasons before opting out of the final three years of his contract. A-Rod was paid $171 million during the seven years of the contract and provided approximately $181.9 million in value with his on-field production.
Derek Jeter – ten years, $189 million
Unlike Reyes and A-Rod, Jeter was not a free agent when this deal was signed (before the 2001 season). The Yankees and their eventual captain agreed to this contract one year before he was scheduled to hit free agency, one year after they had tentatively agreed to a seven-year, $118.5 million deal. Believe it or not, George Steinbrenner did not want to set a salary record, so the seven-year agreement fell through and was replaced by a one-year, $10 million pact.
Jeter was 26 years old when he landed the contract and was coming off four straight 3.8+ WAR seasons, including 6.5 and 7.5 WAR in 1998 and 1999, respectively. As you know, Jeter’s offense was never a problem, it was his defense. He produced 246.3 runs with his bat and baserunning during the life of his contract, but gave back 59.5 runs with his glove. All told, Jeter produced 47.8 WAR during his deal, which was worth approximately $169 million in on-field value.
Troy Tulowitzki – seven years, $134 million
Depending on who you ask, Tulo signed either a seven-year, $134 million contract, or a ten-year, $157.75 million contract. I tend to fall into the former category because he was already under contract for $23.75 million from 2011-2013, but we’re arguing technicalities. The Rockies extended their franchise player three years before he was scheduled to hit free agency, and more than likely four years before he was scheduled to hit free agency thanks to the 2014 club option in the original deal.
Anyway, Tulowitzki — who wears number two because he idolized Jeter growing up; I’m sure that makes Derek feel old — had produced three 5.6+ WAR seasons in his first four years as a big leaguer at the time of the huge extension. He tacked on another 6.3 WAR in 2011. Colorado did take on serious risk with the extension, but like I said with A-Rod, a superstar up-the-middle player in his mid-20′s is a pretty good player to gamble on.
Miguel Tejada – six-years, $72 million
Jeter, A-Rod, and Nomar Garciaparra got a lot of attention as the “Big Three
- 9,530
- 91
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2003
I can see Albert going to Miami, he'd be a great fit there.
- 9,530
- 91
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2003
I can see Albert going to Miami, he'd be a great fit there.
- 7,774
- 4,685
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2003
Hmmmm.
Team won't open their books.
City/County pays for majority of new state of the art stadium.
Politicians may have been bought off.
Team claims dire financial times yet leaked documents show that isn't the case.
Marlins the latest team to master the drill.
Team won't open their books.
City/County pays for majority of new state of the art stadium.
Politicians may have been bought off.
Team claims dire financial times yet leaked documents show that isn't the case.
Marlins the latest team to master the drill.
- 7,774
- 4,685
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2003
Hmmmm.
Team won't open their books.
City/County pays for majority of new state of the art stadium.
Politicians may have been bought off.
Team claims dire financial times yet leaked documents show that isn't the case.
Marlins the latest team to master the drill.
Team won't open their books.
City/County pays for majority of new state of the art stadium.
Politicians may have been bought off.
Team claims dire financial times yet leaked documents show that isn't the case.
Marlins the latest team to master the drill.
- 7,774
- 4,685
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2003
Hmmmm.
Team won't open their books.
City/County pays for majority of new state of the art stadium.
Politicians may have been bought off.
Team claims dire financial times yet leaked documents show that isn't the case.
Marlins the latest team to master the drill.
Team won't open their books.
City/County pays for majority of new state of the art stadium.
Politicians may have been bought off.
Team claims dire financial times yet leaked documents show that isn't the case.
Marlins the latest team to master the drill.
- 1,525
- 62
- Joined
- Jul 4, 2003
Ned Colletti needs to be fired. Yesterday.
Aaron Harang and Jerry Hairston to 2-year deals? Unbelievable.
Aaron Harang and Jerry Hairston to 2-year deals? Unbelievable.
- 1,525
- 62
- Joined
- Jul 4, 2003
Ned Colletti needs to be fired. Yesterday.
Aaron Harang and Jerry Hairston to 2-year deals? Unbelievable.
Aaron Harang and Jerry Hairston to 2-year deals? Unbelievable.
- 4,112
- 10
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2006
Interesting to see that every SS lived up to their ends of the deal when they got big money....
I think the Yanks knew Jeter was below average at SS and didnt care for a long while.
I think the Yanks knew Jeter was below average at SS and didnt care for a long while.
- 4,112
- 10
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2006
Interesting to see that every SS lived up to their ends of the deal when they got big money....
I think the Yanks knew Jeter was below average at SS and didnt care for a long while.
I think the Yanks knew Jeter was below average at SS and didnt care for a long while.
- 5,298
- 273
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2007
Originally Posted by cubanref
Originally Posted by Dade B0Y
- 5,298
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- Feb 12, 2007
Originally Posted by cubanref
Originally Posted by Dade B0Y
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- 61,320
- 22,997
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2008
marlins making moves.
their tickets will be a hot sell the 1st 2 months, but they wont keep that going
how can u with no fanbase??
if the marlins land pujols, just imagine how many runs he will drive in with hanley & reyes in front of him
their tickets will be a hot sell the 1st 2 months, but they wont keep that going
how can u with no fanbase??
if the marlins land pujols, just imagine how many runs he will drive in with hanley & reyes in front of him
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- 61,320
- 22,997
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2008
marlins making moves.
their tickets will be a hot sell the 1st 2 months, but they wont keep that going
how can u with no fanbase??
if the marlins land pujols, just imagine how many runs he will drive in with hanley & reyes in front of him
their tickets will be a hot sell the 1st 2 months, but they wont keep that going
how can u with no fanbase??
if the marlins land pujols, just imagine how many runs he will drive in with hanley & reyes in front of him
- 1,370
- 26
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2009
Marlins are going to be stacked if they get Pujols. Reyes, Ramirez, Stanton, Pujols, Sanchez, Bonifacio
all that speed and power.
- 1,370
- 26
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2009
Marlins are going to be stacked if they get Pujols. Reyes, Ramirez, Stanton, Pujols, Sanchez, Bonifacio
all that speed and power.
- Status