2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[cyber smoke]

[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

The Mariners have got to fire Jack Z... That trade is atrocious.

Hardly atrocious.

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

The Mariners have got to fire Jack Z... That trade is atrocious.

Hardly atrocious.

 

[N41D]

You traded a cost controlled top level arm and another live arm for a catcher that can't catch... Barf. Keep Pineda and pay Fielder if you want a good first baseman. That trade is stupid.

 

[N41D]

You traded a cost controlled top level arm and another live arm for a catcher that can't catch... Barf. Keep Pineda and pay Fielder if you want a good first baseman. That trade is stupid.

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

Originally Posted by Cyber Smoke


[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

i would like to keep robertson

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

Originally Posted by Cyber Smoke


[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

i would like to keep robertson

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

You traded a cost controlled top level arm and another live arm for a catcher that can't catch... Barf. Keep Pineda and pay Fielder if you want a good first baseman. That trade is stupid.

And if Smoak can turn it around and pan out while Montero hits 35 + at DH every year then it's definitely a trade worth making. They're still stacked with pitching in the minors and although none are going to reach a level Pineda can reach, they still have a 25 year old Felix. He's got two or three Cy's left in him.

They could have done a lot better a few years ago by keeping Pineda and still getting Montero, but what you gonna do about that now? Mariners were desperate for a bat and getting Prince was looking like a much lesser possibility. 

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

You traded a cost controlled top level arm and another live arm for a catcher that can't catch... Barf. Keep Pineda and pay Fielder if you want a good first baseman. That trade is stupid.

And if Smoak can turn it around and pan out while Montero hits 35 + at DH every year then it's definitely a trade worth making. They're still stacked with pitching in the minors and although none are going to reach a level Pineda can reach, they still have a 25 year old Felix. He's got two or three Cy's left in him.

They could have done a lot better a few years ago by keeping Pineda and still getting Montero, but what you gonna do about that now? Mariners were desperate for a bat and getting Prince was looking like a much lesser possibility. 

 

[briannnnn]

Originally Posted by Cyber Smoke


[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

Hmm.

I don't want to give up Robertson.

Wish I could tell the Yankees "Don't do it!  Don't you do it!!" /Herm Edwards voice

 

[briannnnn]

Originally Posted by Cyber Smoke


[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

Hmm.

I don't want to give up Robertson.

Wish I could tell the Yankees "Don't do it!  Don't you do it!!" /Herm Edwards voice

 

[CP1708]

651, listen to what you just said. Young #2 arm for a DH. A DH?

 

[CP1708]

651, listen to what you just said. Young #2 arm for a DH. A DH?

 

[N41D]

Right CP... They traded a stud #2 potential ace level pitcher AND threw in another arm with upside for a DH who might be passable defensively at first base... Terrible.

 

[N41D]

Right CP... They traded a stud #2 potential ace level pitcher AND threw in another arm with upside for a DH who might be passable defensively at first base... Terrible.

 

[proshares]

I feel they could have gotten another piece or two. They both got what they needed. I think Montero fits right in and produces right away. His bat is enough to make up for the lack of a position IMO.

 

[proshares]

I feel they could have gotten another piece or two. They both got what they needed. I think Montero fits right in and produces right away. His bat is enough to make up for the lack of a position IMO.

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by briannnnn

Originally Posted by Cyber Smoke


[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

Hmm.

I don't want to give up Robertson.

Wish I could tell the Yankees "Don't do it!  Don't you do it!!" /Herm Edwards voice



This kid is EXTREMELY overrated and they're talking about giving up Robertson?  Unless you have extreme faith in Hughes to the pen and Joba coming back and Soriano performing as well as he did last year, you don't give up that kid for Mark freaking Trumbo.

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by briannnnn

Originally Posted by Cyber Smoke


[h1]http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/28950/20120114/yankees_angels_discussing_trumbo/[/h1]

[h1]Yankees, Angels Discussing Trumbo?[/h1]


Jan 14, 2012 8:48 AM EST

The Yankees and Angels are discussing the possibility of a trade involving first baseman Mark Trumbo, according to a source.

Los Angeles signed Albert Pujols earlier this offseason, making Trumbo somewhat expendable.

It's possible that New York could move reliever David Robertson in a deal for the young slugger.

Hmm.

I don't want to give up Robertson.

Wish I could tell the Yankees "Don't do it!  Don't you do it!!" /Herm Edwards voice



This kid is EXTREMELY overrated and they're talking about giving up Robertson?  Unless you have extreme faith in Hughes to the pen and Joba coming back and Soriano performing as well as he did last year, you don't give up that kid for Mark freaking Trumbo.

 

[proshares]

The Yankees' Pineda play.

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If Yankees executives are a little anxious this morning, you wouldn't blame them. Nineteen months ago, they agreed to a deal for what they viewed as a difference-making pitcher, and the swap seemed so assured that one club official told everyone he bumped into at the Yankees' complex in Florida that everything was finished. But at the 24th hour, the trade was blown up; Cliff Lee was the pitcher in that proposed pitcher, Jesus Montero was the trade bait, and the team that pulled out, of course, was the Seattle Mariners.

Once again, the Yankees are in that twilight zone situation: They've agreed to trade Montero for what they believe will be a difference-making pitcher, Michael Pineda -- who turns 23 in four days -- and physical examinations are pending; the deal may not be announced, officially, until next week.

But the Mariners and Yankees have been talking about this deal for months. Presumably, there won't be any seller's remorse in Seattle, despite the strong initial reaction from rival GMs that the framework of the proposed deal -- Pineda and Campos for Jesus Montero and the underrated Hector Noesi -- is an extraordinary trade for the Yankees, who also have signed Hiroki Kuroda.

"If the Mariners liked Montero so much," asked one official, "why didn't they just trade Cliff Lee for him?" That, of course, would've allowed Seattle to keep Pineda, as part of a young, powerful rotation -- and the Rays have demonstrated, again, that strong starting pitching is this sport's great equalizer. The Mariners' blueprint, before this trade, was to build around Felix Hernandez, Pineda, No. 1 pick Danny Hultzen and other starters going forward.

Another question raised by a rival executive: If the Mariners were going to trade a frontline starter, why not deal the more expensive Felix Hernandez -- who will make $58 million over the next three seasons -- and get Montero as part of a bigger and better package in return?

But as the Mariners moved through this offseason, one evaluator said, it became painfully apparent to them that acquiring offensive talent is, in the end, much more difficult for them than to develop pitching, largely because of their pitcher-friendly ballpark. Adrian Beltre may be the last big-time hitter who signs with Seattle, because others are leery of what the dimensions of Safeco Field will do their numbers.

There is no doubt, either, that Montero is viewed as an elite hitter; long before this trade, some scouts have compared his style and unusual ability (for a power hitter) to make contact and drive the ball the other way to that of Edgar Martinez, the Mariners' Hall of Fame candidate. "He could hit 25-30 homers a year for 10 years," said an evaluator on Friday night.

But in order for the Mariners to get fair value in this deal, some rival officials noted, Montero must be a catcher. "You can't trade a young starter like Pineda unless you are filling a premium position," said one executive. "Shortstop. Third base. Center field. Maybe second base. And catcher."

A lot of evaluators don't believe that Montero has a future as a catcher, because of concerns over his hands, his devotion to the position, and the lack of quickness in his feet. Prior to the 2010 season, the Yankees altered Montero's throwing mechanics, eliminating the movement in his feet in such a way that allowed him to take advantage of his strong arm.

The Yankees believe he will be a catcher, and so do the Mariners. Other teams love Montero's bat, but still see him as a DH.

But the chorus is loud on the future of Pineda, who is a lot like CC Sabathia in his height, at 6-foot-7, and in one crucial trait -- despite his size, Pineda is a strike-thrower, in the mid-90s. Even as a 22-year-old rookie last summer, Pineda ranked 31st in strikeout-to-walk ratio, at 3.15, and he ranked seventh in strikeouts per nine innings. The Yankees intend to tuck him in the middle of their rotation, behind Kuroda and Nova, to ease the pressure that he will have in his first season in New York, and if the deal goes through, they will have two young starters in Nova and Pineda once Sabathia begins to decline.

[h4]Tale of two seasons[/h4]
How Pineda's numbers broke down before and after the All-Star break.
[table][tr][th=""]Stats[/th][th=""]Before Break[/th][th=""]After Break[/th][/tr][tr][td]W-L[/td][td]8-6[/td][td]1-4[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA[/td][td]3.03[/td][td]5.12[/td][/tr][tr][td]IP-HR[/td][td]113-10[/td][td]58-8[/td][/tr][/table]

"You almost never see talents like that get traded," said one GM. "It makes you wonder if (the Mariners) saw something they didn't like in the second half."

The Yankees will take their chances, and soon enough, they will learn if the Mariners are ready to push this deal across the finish line and land Montero, once and for all.

The Yankees were like Michael Corleone in The Godfather: They settled all family business in one day.

Some numbers on Pineda: He had the lowest opponent batting average against right-handed hitters in 2011 (.184), recorded the fifth-highest average fastball velocity among starting pitchers (94.5) and had the fifth-highest fastball miss percentage among starters (20.4).

The Mariners desperately needed offense, having recorded the lowest BA of an AL team in the DH era (since 1973) last season -- .233. They should get plenty out of Montero, who last season recorded the sixth-highest OPS of a player during their age 21 season or younger since WWII, with .996.

The Mariners went the trade route to add offense, writes Larry Stone. It's a headline-grabber, writes Larry LaRue.

The deal bolsters the Yankees' rotation, as David Waldstein writes. This deal adds to Brian Cashman's legacy, writes John Harper. The Yankees renovated their rotation, writes Dan Martin and Joel Sherman. The Yankees shook up the offseason, writes Anthony Rieber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• A great question, asked by a really smart executive: Why is Yoenis Cespedes playing in any winter ball games? His first couple of games were rough, not surprisingly, because he hasn't played in a really long time. But already there are red flags about his ability to recognize a breaking ball -- as with Wily Mo Pena -- and he really wouldn't have gained anything if he had had success.

The Tigers are one of the teams watching Cespedes. The Nationals were not mentioned by the outfielder, as he discussed his possible suitors.

• The Indians would seem to be in a position to land a good first baseman, one way or another. There are not many opportunities remaining for a veteran first baseman to get regular at-bats, and the Indians have been patiently waiting for the market prices to come back to them. As of today, Casey Kotchman is unsigned, and so is Carlos Pena, and if the Nationals were to sign Prince Fielder, Adam LaRoche would become available. All of the remaining first basemen (including Derrek Lee, who had indicated earlier in this offseason that he didn't want to sign with the Indians) are plus defenders, which will be important for a rotation loaded with groundball pitchers.

Three of the top-10-ranked pitchers in groundball ratio in 2011 -- Derek Lowe, Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona -- will pitch for the Indians in 2012.

Chris Antonetti is working on making that first base decision, as Paul Hoynes writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The D-Backs have interest in Bartolo Colon. Keep in mind that Kevin Towers, Arizona's GM, worked for the Yankees for a year, so he will presumably get an honest read from New York about what they believe Colon could contribute.

2. The Rangers are among the teams talking with Prince Fielder. I think the stance for the Cubs and Rangers has been consistent all along: If a Fielder deal can be had on the team's terms, they'd be interested. One rival executive thinks that whether it's the Nationals, Rangers or Cubs, the structure will be something along the lines of a six- or seven-year deal, with an opt-out clause after two or three years in the contract.

The Nationals have made a lot of deals with Scott Boras, as Thomas Boswell writes.

Mark Teixeira's contract situation is a cautionary tale for the Fielder bidders, writes Bob Klapisch.

3. Kerry Wood has a new deal, writes Gordon Wittenmyer. There is optimism in the air at the Cubs' convention, writes Paul Sullivan.

4. Charges against Drew Pomeranz have been dismissed.

5. The Padres can blame Frank McCourt for the owners' decision to hold approval on the club's sale, sources say. Major League Baseball wants to make sure that incoming Padres owner Jeff Moorad is properly capitalized -- which is something that became a debilitating problem in McCourt's ownership.

6. A legal request by McCourt was denied.

7. There are six Pirates eligible for arbitration.

8. Tim Lincecum's arbitration request will be record-setting, as Ron Blum writes.

9. Mike DiGiovanna considers Albert Pujols' value to the Angels.

10. The Red Sox want to keep Jason Varitek in the family.

11. Here are some free-agent possibilities for the Orioles.

12. Martin Prado signed with the Braves, and they signed Jack Wilson.

13. Kyle Kendrick agreed to terms.

Projecting the Yankees in the AL East.

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After a pretty quiet offseason, the New York Yankees finally made their move Friday, signing former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda and picking up Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners for Jesus Montero.

Trading Montero is a tough thing to do, but the Yankees pick up another young, cost-controlled player with star potential. More importantly, the Yankees, in what appears to be a very competitive three-team race in the AL East between New York, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, address what is a crucial team need.

The 2011 Yankee starters went 71-45 with a 4.03 ERA, impressive considering how many unknowns there were going into the season. However, it's not wise to count on things simply falling together, as they did when the team got good seasons out of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia after signing them to minor league contracts. Garcia is back in New York, but he also hasn't been healthy enough to qualify for the ERA title since 2006 and last matched 2011's 3.62 ERA in 2001 for the Mariners. Given the general lousiness of A.J. Burnett (still two years to go!) and the uncertainty surrounding Phil Hughes, bringing in some pitching was the way to go.

Plan A had been Edwin Jackson, but Jackson's status as one of the few remaining solid starters on the free-agent market led him to go out of the Yankees' price range, which is a pretty impressive achievement in itself. Jackson is a durable pitcher and still young, but his ZiPS projection of 12-9, 4.33, 2.3 WAR (wins above replacement) in New York isn't exactly enough to make you want to bring him in for the $15 million to $17 million per season he's rumored to be seeking.

So the Yankees went another way, getting Kuroda on a one-year contract and pulling the trigger on the Pineda trade. When projecting the acquisitions going forward, the first thing to avoid is setting unrealistic expectations. Kuroda is 37, is moving to a tougher league and a tougher park, and last year's 3.07 ERA doesn't look quite as shiny when you consider his FIP of 3.78, the highest number of his MLB career. Similarly, Pineda had a fantastic rookie season, but pitching in Yankee Stadium is different than pitching at Safeco Field, and young pitchers generally take their share of bumps and bruises.

That being said, even considering the new hurlers as "good" rather than potential 2012 aces, the Yankees have helped themselves considerably in the 2012 AL East race. ZiPS projects Kuroda at 12-9, 4.33, 2.3 WAR and Pineda projects as 11-7, 4.11, 2.9 WAR. While that's not likely to earn either of them any Cy Young votes, it solidifies the rotation quite a bit.

At 5.2 combined projected WAR, Kuroda and Pineda project to be worth nearly four wins better than some combination of Burnett, Hughes and prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances. Hughes will still get his chances -- there's little in baseball more temporary than a pitching rotation -- and giving the top prospects sufficient time in Triple-A to work out control issues can only help the team down the road.

Four wins doesn't sound like a monumental increase, but when you're a team with an expectation around 90 wins in a tight division, that's a valuable addition at this point in the winter. Before the moves, ZiPS has seen the top three teams in the AL East in a preliminary forecast of 88-92 wins. Kuroda and Pineda boost the mean expectation for the Yankees to 94 wins, enough to make them the favorites in the AL East and a solid six games ahead of the Rays.

The offseason isn't over by a long shot, and the Red Sox and Rays have time to make additions to their rosters as well. Reality has a way of thwarting expectations, but looking at it in the depth of winter, the Yankees have improved their odds of an invincible summer and a flag-filled autumn.

A quick note on Michael Pineda's splits.

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Since the swap of Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero became public last night, a few talking points have become pretty commonplace. Some of them – Pineda’s reliance on his fastball and slider due to a subpar change-up, for instance – are definitely true, and are stories supported by the evidence. However, there have also been a few points that have been raised that don’t stand up to closer scrutiny, and those mostly stem from cursory looks at Pineda’s splits.

Split data, by its nature, generally consists of small sample sizes. In breaking a season down into smaller slices, you’re necessarily introducing greater uncertainty into the numbers. It’s important to not draw too many strong conclusions from what appear to be trends in split data, and at the same time, to make sure you’re looking at the entire picture.

With Pineda, two of his 2011 splits are most commonly cited as reasons for the Yankees to have some concern about his future performance – his home/road splits (specifically, the 2.92/4.40 ERA numbers) and his first half/second half splits (3.03/5.12 ERA). From these numbers, questions have been raised about how well Pineda will do outside of spacious Safeco Field and whether he’ll be able to hold up over a full-season and still be able to pitch well for the Yankees in the playoffs.

In both cases, however, looking a little deeper than simple ERA shows that these concerns are probably overblown.

Let’s start with his home and road numbers. For context, here are the relevant numbers for both:
[table][tr][th=""]Split[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]K%[/th][th=""]GB%[/th][th=""]HR/FB[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]LOB%[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]xFIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Home[/td][td]9.1%[/td][td]26.6%[/td][td]35.4%[/td][td]10.5%[/td][td]0.220[/td][td]77.5%[/td][td]3.62[/td][td]3.51[/td][/tr][tr][td]Away[/td][td]7.0%[/td][td]23.5%[/td][td]37.0%[/td][td]7.8%[/td][td]0.286[/td][td]64.4%[/td][td]3.26[/td][td]3.55[/td][/tr][/table]
His walk and strikeout rates are both slightly higher at home, though the numbers are close enough to essentially be equal. His GB% is slightly higher on the road, but again, there’s not a big enough gap to really read into that at all. In those three core categories, there’s really nothing to show that Pineda actually pitched much better at home.

In fact, if there was one area where you’d expect Safeco’s park factor to show up, it would be in HR/FB rate. Safeco’s a pretty big ballpark and heavily suppresses home runs for right-handed batters, but Pineda’s HR/FB rate was actually lower on the road than it was in Seattle. While this might be a bit surprising, the reality is that Safeco actually isn’t all that beneficial to right-handed pitchers, as the right field porch is fairly short and the ball carries pretty well that direction. Left-handed pull hitters – the ones most likely to take Pineda deep – do just fine in Safeco. This is one of those times that a general park factor just isn’t all that helpful, because the park’s asymmetrical dimensions create very different effects for lefties and righties.

So, why was his ERA at home so much lower? Well, the chart should make it pretty obvious. Not only was his BABIP 66 points lower at home than on the road, but his road strand rate was just absurdly low. A pitcher who posts a 3.26 FIP and a .286 BABIP, as Pineda did away from home a year ago, should strand something close to 75% of his baserunners. Pineda stranded just 64%, the kind of total that is so low that you’d expect improvement from even the worst pitcher in baseball.

Essentially, his road ERA was just artificially inflated because of a strand rate that has no real predictive value. And there’s no reason to believe that Michael Pineda is going to strand runners on the road again next season. That’s one of those numbers, like a player’s batting average in Thursday day games, that is basically just trivia rather than anything useful. This is a case where home/road ERA isn’t giving us any insight into how a pitcher’s home park helped him perform better. It’s a number that’s best ignored, honestly – it doesn’t really tell us anything about what we should expect in 2012 and beyond.

Now, for the second half fade narrative. Here’s the same table as above, just with his performances by month:
[table][tr][th=""]Split[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]K%[/th][th=""]GB%[/th][th=""]HR/FB[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]LOB%[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]xFIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mar/Apr[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]23.8%[/td][td]30.9%[/td][td]0.0%[/td][td]0.262[/td][td]76.5%[/td][td]2.26[/td][td]3.90[/td][/tr][tr][td]May[/td][td]5.6%[/td][td]28.6%[/td][td]36.6%[/td][td]10.8%[/td][td]0.231[/td][td]82.0%[/td][td]3.15[/td][td]2.98[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jun[/td][td]8.3%[/td][td]21.2%[/td][td]26.5%[/td][td]7.5%[/td][td]0.243[/td][td]76.1%[/td][td]3.90[/td][td]4.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jul[/td][td]9.3%[/td][td]28.8%[/td][td]40.6%[/td][td]14.3%[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]46.1%[/td][td]3.74[/td][td]3.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aug[/td][td]7.4%[/td][td]24.2%[/td][td]46.8%[/td][td]19.0%[/td][td]0.262[/td][td]65.4%[/td][td]4.20[/td][td]3.09[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sept/Oct[/td][td]6.7%[/td][td]22.7%[/td][td]45.3%[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]0.275[/td][td]71.4%[/td][td]3.41[/td][td]3.44[/td][/tr][/table]
Again, we’re looking at a scenario where ERA isn’t really giving us an accurate picture of what happened. As you can see by looking at the numbers, the spike in runs allowed was basically due to a regression in his BABIP and HR/FB rates from the first half of the season. His K/BB ratio is nearly identical from the first half to the second half, and Pineda actually started generating far more ground balls as the season wore on. Those numbers do have predictive value, and don’t support the idea that Pineda was “wearing down

 

[proshares]

The Yankees' Pineda play.

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If Yankees executives are a little anxious this morning, you wouldn't blame them. Nineteen months ago, they agreed to a deal for what they viewed as a difference-making pitcher, and the swap seemed so assured that one club official told everyone he bumped into at the Yankees' complex in Florida that everything was finished. But at the 24th hour, the trade was blown up; Cliff Lee was the pitcher in that proposed pitcher, Jesus Montero was the trade bait, and the team that pulled out, of course, was the Seattle Mariners.

Once again, the Yankees are in that twilight zone situation: They've agreed to trade Montero for what they believe will be a difference-making pitcher, Michael Pineda -- who turns 23 in four days -- and physical examinations are pending; the deal may not be announced, officially, until next week.

But the Mariners and Yankees have been talking about this deal for months. Presumably, there won't be any seller's remorse in Seattle, despite the strong initial reaction from rival GMs that the framework of the proposed deal -- Pineda and Campos for Jesus Montero and the underrated Hector Noesi -- is an extraordinary trade for the Yankees, who also have signed Hiroki Kuroda.

"If the Mariners liked Montero so much," asked one official, "why didn't they just trade Cliff Lee for him?" That, of course, would've allowed Seattle to keep Pineda, as part of a young, powerful rotation -- and the Rays have demonstrated, again, that strong starting pitching is this sport's great equalizer. The Mariners' blueprint, before this trade, was to build around Felix Hernandez, Pineda, No. 1 pick Danny Hultzen and other starters going forward.

Another question raised by a rival executive: If the Mariners were going to trade a frontline starter, why not deal the more expensive Felix Hernandez -- who will make $58 million over the next three seasons -- and get Montero as part of a bigger and better package in return?

But as the Mariners moved through this offseason, one evaluator said, it became painfully apparent to them that acquiring offensive talent is, in the end, much more difficult for them than to develop pitching, largely because of their pitcher-friendly ballpark. Adrian Beltre may be the last big-time hitter who signs with Seattle, because others are leery of what the dimensions of Safeco Field will do their numbers.

There is no doubt, either, that Montero is viewed as an elite hitter; long before this trade, some scouts have compared his style and unusual ability (for a power hitter) to make contact and drive the ball the other way to that of Edgar Martinez, the Mariners' Hall of Fame candidate. "He could hit 25-30 homers a year for 10 years," said an evaluator on Friday night.

But in order for the Mariners to get fair value in this deal, some rival officials noted, Montero must be a catcher. "You can't trade a young starter like Pineda unless you are filling a premium position," said one executive. "Shortstop. Third base. Center field. Maybe second base. And catcher."

A lot of evaluators don't believe that Montero has a future as a catcher, because of concerns over his hands, his devotion to the position, and the lack of quickness in his feet. Prior to the 2010 season, the Yankees altered Montero's throwing mechanics, eliminating the movement in his feet in such a way that allowed him to take advantage of his strong arm.

The Yankees believe he will be a catcher, and so do the Mariners. Other teams love Montero's bat, but still see him as a DH.

But the chorus is loud on the future of Pineda, who is a lot like CC Sabathia in his height, at 6-foot-7, and in one crucial trait -- despite his size, Pineda is a strike-thrower, in the mid-90s. Even as a 22-year-old rookie last summer, Pineda ranked 31st in strikeout-to-walk ratio, at 3.15, and he ranked seventh in strikeouts per nine innings. The Yankees intend to tuck him in the middle of their rotation, behind Kuroda and Nova, to ease the pressure that he will have in his first season in New York, and if the deal goes through, they will have two young starters in Nova and Pineda once Sabathia begins to decline.

[h4]Tale of two seasons[/h4]
How Pineda's numbers broke down before and after the All-Star break.
[table][tr][th=""]Stats[/th][th=""]Before Break[/th][th=""]After Break[/th][/tr][tr][td]W-L[/td][td]8-6[/td][td]1-4[/td][/tr][tr][td]ERA[/td][td]3.03[/td][td]5.12[/td][/tr][tr][td]IP-HR[/td][td]113-10[/td][td]58-8[/td][/tr][/table]

"You almost never see talents like that get traded," said one GM. "It makes you wonder if (the Mariners) saw something they didn't like in the second half."

The Yankees will take their chances, and soon enough, they will learn if the Mariners are ready to push this deal across the finish line and land Montero, once and for all.

The Yankees were like Michael Corleone in The Godfather: They settled all family business in one day.

Some numbers on Pineda: He had the lowest opponent batting average against right-handed hitters in 2011 (.184), recorded the fifth-highest average fastball velocity among starting pitchers (94.5) and had the fifth-highest fastball miss percentage among starters (20.4).

The Mariners desperately needed offense, having recorded the lowest BA of an AL team in the DH era (since 1973) last season -- .233. They should get plenty out of Montero, who last season recorded the sixth-highest OPS of a player during their age 21 season or younger since WWII, with .996.

The Mariners went the trade route to add offense, writes Larry Stone. It's a headline-grabber, writes Larry LaRue.

The deal bolsters the Yankees' rotation, as David Waldstein writes. This deal adds to Brian Cashman's legacy, writes John Harper. The Yankees renovated their rotation, writes Dan Martin and Joel Sherman. The Yankees shook up the offseason, writes Anthony Rieber.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• A great question, asked by a really smart executive: Why is Yoenis Cespedes playing in any winter ball games? His first couple of games were rough, not surprisingly, because he hasn't played in a really long time. But already there are red flags about his ability to recognize a breaking ball -- as with Wily Mo Pena -- and he really wouldn't have gained anything if he had had success.

The Tigers are one of the teams watching Cespedes. The Nationals were not mentioned by the outfielder, as he discussed his possible suitors.

• The Indians would seem to be in a position to land a good first baseman, one way or another. There are not many opportunities remaining for a veteran first baseman to get regular at-bats, and the Indians have been patiently waiting for the market prices to come back to them. As of today, Casey Kotchman is unsigned, and so is Carlos Pena, and if the Nationals were to sign Prince Fielder, Adam LaRoche would become available. All of the remaining first basemen (including Derrek Lee, who had indicated earlier in this offseason that he didn't want to sign with the Indians) are plus defenders, which will be important for a rotation loaded with groundball pitchers.

Three of the top-10-ranked pitchers in groundball ratio in 2011 -- Derek Lowe, Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona -- will pitch for the Indians in 2012.

Chris Antonetti is working on making that first base decision, as Paul Hoynes writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The D-Backs have interest in Bartolo Colon. Keep in mind that Kevin Towers, Arizona's GM, worked for the Yankees for a year, so he will presumably get an honest read from New York about what they believe Colon could contribute.

2. The Rangers are among the teams talking with Prince Fielder. I think the stance for the Cubs and Rangers has been consistent all along: If a Fielder deal can be had on the team's terms, they'd be interested. One rival executive thinks that whether it's the Nationals, Rangers or Cubs, the structure will be something along the lines of a six- or seven-year deal, with an opt-out clause after two or three years in the contract.

The Nationals have made a lot of deals with Scott Boras, as Thomas Boswell writes.

Mark Teixeira's contract situation is a cautionary tale for the Fielder bidders, writes Bob Klapisch.

3. Kerry Wood has a new deal, writes Gordon Wittenmyer. There is optimism in the air at the Cubs' convention, writes Paul Sullivan.

4. Charges against Drew Pomeranz have been dismissed.

5. The Padres can blame Frank McCourt for the owners' decision to hold approval on the club's sale, sources say. Major League Baseball wants to make sure that incoming Padres owner Jeff Moorad is properly capitalized -- which is something that became a debilitating problem in McCourt's ownership.

6. A legal request by McCourt was denied.

7. There are six Pirates eligible for arbitration.

8. Tim Lincecum's arbitration request will be record-setting, as Ron Blum writes.

9. Mike DiGiovanna considers Albert Pujols' value to the Angels.

10. The Red Sox want to keep Jason Varitek in the family.

11. Here are some free-agent possibilities for the Orioles.

12. Martin Prado signed with the Braves, and they signed Jack Wilson.

13. Kyle Kendrick agreed to terms.

Projecting the Yankees in the AL East.

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After a pretty quiet offseason, the New York Yankees finally made their move Friday, signing former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda and picking up Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners for Jesus Montero.

Trading Montero is a tough thing to do, but the Yankees pick up another young, cost-controlled player with star potential. More importantly, the Yankees, in what appears to be a very competitive three-team race in the AL East between New York, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, address what is a crucial team need.

The 2011 Yankee starters went 71-45 with a 4.03 ERA, impressive considering how many unknowns there were going into the season. However, it's not wise to count on things simply falling together, as they did when the team got good seasons out of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia after signing them to minor league contracts. Garcia is back in New York, but he also hasn't been healthy enough to qualify for the ERA title since 2006 and last matched 2011's 3.62 ERA in 2001 for the Mariners. Given the general lousiness of A.J. Burnett (still two years to go!) and the uncertainty surrounding Phil Hughes, bringing in some pitching was the way to go.

Plan A had been Edwin Jackson, but Jackson's status as one of the few remaining solid starters on the free-agent market led him to go out of the Yankees' price range, which is a pretty impressive achievement in itself. Jackson is a durable pitcher and still young, but his ZiPS projection of 12-9, 4.33, 2.3 WAR (wins above replacement) in New York isn't exactly enough to make you want to bring him in for the $15 million to $17 million per season he's rumored to be seeking.

So the Yankees went another way, getting Kuroda on a one-year contract and pulling the trigger on the Pineda trade. When projecting the acquisitions going forward, the first thing to avoid is setting unrealistic expectations. Kuroda is 37, is moving to a tougher league and a tougher park, and last year's 3.07 ERA doesn't look quite as shiny when you consider his FIP of 3.78, the highest number of his MLB career. Similarly, Pineda had a fantastic rookie season, but pitching in Yankee Stadium is different than pitching at Safeco Field, and young pitchers generally take their share of bumps and bruises.

That being said, even considering the new hurlers as "good" rather than potential 2012 aces, the Yankees have helped themselves considerably in the 2012 AL East race. ZiPS projects Kuroda at 12-9, 4.33, 2.3 WAR and Pineda projects as 11-7, 4.11, 2.9 WAR. While that's not likely to earn either of them any Cy Young votes, it solidifies the rotation quite a bit.

At 5.2 combined projected WAR, Kuroda and Pineda project to be worth nearly four wins better than some combination of Burnett, Hughes and prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances. Hughes will still get his chances -- there's little in baseball more temporary than a pitching rotation -- and giving the top prospects sufficient time in Triple-A to work out control issues can only help the team down the road.

Four wins doesn't sound like a monumental increase, but when you're a team with an expectation around 90 wins in a tight division, that's a valuable addition at this point in the winter. Before the moves, ZiPS has seen the top three teams in the AL East in a preliminary forecast of 88-92 wins. Kuroda and Pineda boost the mean expectation for the Yankees to 94 wins, enough to make them the favorites in the AL East and a solid six games ahead of the Rays.

The offseason isn't over by a long shot, and the Red Sox and Rays have time to make additions to their rosters as well. Reality has a way of thwarting expectations, but looking at it in the depth of winter, the Yankees have improved their odds of an invincible summer and a flag-filled autumn.

A quick note on Michael Pineda's splits.

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Since the swap of Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero became public last night, a few talking points have become pretty commonplace. Some of them – Pineda’s reliance on his fastball and slider due to a subpar change-up, for instance – are definitely true, and are stories supported by the evidence. However, there have also been a few points that have been raised that don’t stand up to closer scrutiny, and those mostly stem from cursory looks at Pineda’s splits.

Split data, by its nature, generally consists of small sample sizes. In breaking a season down into smaller slices, you’re necessarily introducing greater uncertainty into the numbers. It’s important to not draw too many strong conclusions from what appear to be trends in split data, and at the same time, to make sure you’re looking at the entire picture.

With Pineda, two of his 2011 splits are most commonly cited as reasons for the Yankees to have some concern about his future performance – his home/road splits (specifically, the 2.92/4.40 ERA numbers) and his first half/second half splits (3.03/5.12 ERA). From these numbers, questions have been raised about how well Pineda will do outside of spacious Safeco Field and whether he’ll be able to hold up over a full-season and still be able to pitch well for the Yankees in the playoffs.

In both cases, however, looking a little deeper than simple ERA shows that these concerns are probably overblown.

Let’s start with his home and road numbers. For context, here are the relevant numbers for both:
[table][tr][th=""]Split[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]K%[/th][th=""]GB%[/th][th=""]HR/FB[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]LOB%[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]xFIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Home[/td][td]9.1%[/td][td]26.6%[/td][td]35.4%[/td][td]10.5%[/td][td]0.220[/td][td]77.5%[/td][td]3.62[/td][td]3.51[/td][/tr][tr][td]Away[/td][td]7.0%[/td][td]23.5%[/td][td]37.0%[/td][td]7.8%[/td][td]0.286[/td][td]64.4%[/td][td]3.26[/td][td]3.55[/td][/tr][/table]
His walk and strikeout rates are both slightly higher at home, though the numbers are close enough to essentially be equal. His GB% is slightly higher on the road, but again, there’s not a big enough gap to really read into that at all. In those three core categories, there’s really nothing to show that Pineda actually pitched much better at home.

In fact, if there was one area where you’d expect Safeco’s park factor to show up, it would be in HR/FB rate. Safeco’s a pretty big ballpark and heavily suppresses home runs for right-handed batters, but Pineda’s HR/FB rate was actually lower on the road than it was in Seattle. While this might be a bit surprising, the reality is that Safeco actually isn’t all that beneficial to right-handed pitchers, as the right field porch is fairly short and the ball carries pretty well that direction. Left-handed pull hitters – the ones most likely to take Pineda deep – do just fine in Safeco. This is one of those times that a general park factor just isn’t all that helpful, because the park’s asymmetrical dimensions create very different effects for lefties and righties.

So, why was his ERA at home so much lower? Well, the chart should make it pretty obvious. Not only was his BABIP 66 points lower at home than on the road, but his road strand rate was just absurdly low. A pitcher who posts a 3.26 FIP and a .286 BABIP, as Pineda did away from home a year ago, should strand something close to 75% of his baserunners. Pineda stranded just 64%, the kind of total that is so low that you’d expect improvement from even the worst pitcher in baseball.

Essentially, his road ERA was just artificially inflated because of a strand rate that has no real predictive value. And there’s no reason to believe that Michael Pineda is going to strand runners on the road again next season. That’s one of those numbers, like a player’s batting average in Thursday day games, that is basically just trivia rather than anything useful. This is a case where home/road ERA isn’t giving us any insight into how a pitcher’s home park helped him perform better. It’s a number that’s best ignored, honestly – it doesn’t really tell us anything about what we should expect in 2012 and beyond.

Now, for the second half fade narrative. Here’s the same table as above, just with his performances by month:
[table][tr][th=""]Split[/th][th=""]BB%[/th][th=""]K%[/th][th=""]GB%[/th][th=""]HR/FB[/th][th=""]BABIP[/th][th=""]LOB%[/th][th=""]FIP[/th][th=""]xFIP[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mar/Apr[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]23.8%[/td][td]30.9%[/td][td]0.0%[/td][td]0.262[/td][td]76.5%[/td][td]2.26[/td][td]3.90[/td][/tr][tr][td]May[/td][td]5.6%[/td][td]28.6%[/td][td]36.6%[/td][td]10.8%[/td][td]0.231[/td][td]82.0%[/td][td]3.15[/td][td]2.98[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jun[/td][td]8.3%[/td][td]21.2%[/td][td]26.5%[/td][td]7.5%[/td][td]0.243[/td][td]76.1%[/td][td]3.90[/td][td]4.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jul[/td][td]9.3%[/td][td]28.8%[/td][td]40.6%[/td][td]14.3%[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]46.1%[/td][td]3.74[/td][td]3.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aug[/td][td]7.4%[/td][td]24.2%[/td][td]46.8%[/td][td]19.0%[/td][td]0.262[/td][td]65.4%[/td][td]4.20[/td][td]3.09[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sept/Oct[/td][td]6.7%[/td][td]22.7%[/td][td]45.3%[/td][td]9.5%[/td][td]0.275[/td][td]71.4%[/td][td]3.41[/td][td]3.44[/td][/tr][/table]
Again, we’re looking at a scenario where ERA isn’t really giving us an accurate picture of what happened. As you can see by looking at the numbers, the spike in runs allowed was basically due to a regression in his BABIP and HR/FB rates from the first half of the season. His K/BB ratio is nearly identical from the first half to the second half, and Pineda actually started generating far more ground balls as the season wore on. Those numbers do have predictive value, and don’t support the idea that Pineda was “wearing down

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

anything new on fielder?

 

[Bend_The_Knee]

anything new on fielder?

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by CP1708

651, listen to what you just said. Young #2 arm for a DH. A DH?

M's know what impact a DH can have on a team..I digress...This trade works out for both teams and looking at the general impact of both players is narrow minded when the Mariners will still have a great rotation for years to come and a lineup that can score runs.
Anyway, the talking is done. We'll just see how it all unfolds.

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by CP1708

651, listen to what you just said. Young #2 arm for a DH. A DH?

M's know what impact a DH can have on a team..I digress...This trade works out for both teams and looking at the general impact of both players is narrow minded when the Mariners will still have a great rotation for years to come and a lineup that can score runs.
Anyway, the talking is done. We'll just see how it all unfolds.