2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Spoiler [+]
Aaron Harang grew up about five minutes from what was once known as Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego and would go to the park to watch the Padres, to watch Tony Gwynn; so signing with his hometown team over the winter was a good fit for him. His whole family is in San Diego, and his wife's whole family is there, too.

insider_a_harang_sy_200.jpg

AP Photo/Charlie RiedelAaron Harang's fly ball tendencies now will be rewarded.

But the comfort level for Harang in San Diego will go beyond any daycare help from the relatives. After years of pitching in the Reds' tiny ballpark, where just about any ball hit into the air to right field was a candidate to land in the Ohio River, Harang will now make his home starts in Petco Park, which swallows fly balls.

For Harang, this is a very big deal, because he is a fly ball pitcher. Over the past four years, Harang ranks ninth among all pitchers (minimum 600 IP) in fly ball percentage (42.2):

Ted Lilly: 49.1
Jered Weaver: 48.0
Tim Wakefield: 46.0
Scott Kazmir: 45.0
Scott Baker: 45.0
Matt Cain: 44.4
Ervin Santana: 42.9
Johan Santana: 42.7
Aaron Harang: 42.2

Scott Regan of ESPN Stats & Information considered all the home runs that Harang allowed since the start of 2008 and imagined a universe in which Harang had been pitching in Petco Park over the past three years, rather than in Cincinnati. The difference would have been enormous.

From Scott: "Using the HitTracker Software, I was able to transpose/overlay every home-game home run that Harang has given up since 2008 (43 total) and plot it at PETCO. Looking at the diagram, where the park change might benefit Harang seems to be in right/right center where 11 of the home runs he had given up would have stayed in the park at Petco. Over the past three years (2008 to 2010), Harang has given up more home runs to right/right center than any other part of the park.

17 -- Right/Right center
16 -- Left/Left center
10 -- Center

Overall, 13 of the 43 home runs Harang gave up at home would not have been home runs in San Diego (30 percent). So as you see in the graphic, all the red dots are home runs in Cincy that wouldn't be in San Diego."

harang1.jpg

The red dots represent home runs in Cincy that would have been mere fly outs in San Diego.

Harang does feel that over time, pitching in Cincinnati affected his choices. Rather than pounding the strike zone with fastballs -- which is the approach that Harang had always had -- Harang felt himself trying to miss bats. Rather than challenging hitters, he became more apt to throw a breaking ball. "The last couple of years, I felt I was pitching away from contact, and in turn making mistakes," he said the other day.

After the Padres signed Harang, San Diego pitching coach Darren Balsley reviewed videotape from Harang's best seasons and determined that over time, Harang had tended to quicken his delivery. With this in mind, Harang and Balsley have worked to slow down the right-hander's mechanics, to get back to a little higher leg kick and holding his weight back on his right leg a little longer, before he drives toward the plate.

Chris Young had success for the Padres for years, thriving in Petco Park, with some dynamics similar to those of Harang -- a deceptive delivery that makes his fastball look a little faster, and as an acute fly ball pitcher. Harang isn't going to tailor his pitch selection to Petco Park; he just wants to get back to throwing the way he did in 2006 and 2007. "You can't go in with the whole mindset of 'I can make mistakes,'" he said. "I'm not going to go in there and nit-pick around. I'm going to be aggressive."

---

Harang has had an OK spring training, although he is the type of pitcher who could be particularly impacted by the conditions in Arizona.

Another member of the San Diego rotation, Tim Stauffer, had a good outing.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• John Mozeliak, the general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, brought his golf clubs to spring training, and on the first day he arrived those sticks were placed in the trunk of his car. And the GM hasn't touched them since, because of a camp that began hectically. The Albert Pujols negotiations ended without an agreement, and then Adam Wainwright blew out his elbow. As Mozeliak talked over the phone on Wednesday morning, he mentioned that he is about to ask for the clubs to be packed away, to be taken to St. Louis.

The Cardinals' camp settled, though, after the Wainwright injury. Lance Berkman had elbow and leg issues early, but seems to be doing OK, and while new shortstop Ryan Theriot hasn't hit much this spring, Mozeliak feels like he's fit in well.

The Cardinals are also heartened by what they've seen from Kyle McClellan, who is expected to take Wainwright's spot in the St. Louis rotation. "In terms of what we've seen, it's what we would've expected," Mozeliak said. "He has a strong repertoire of pitches. The big challenge for him is going to be going through a lineup multiple times."

It's not as if the Cardinals are converting a lifelong reliever to plug a hole. McClellan competed against Jaime Garcia for a spot in the St. Louis rotation in the spring of 2010, and when he was told that he was being moved to the bullpen, he was deeply disappointed. McClellan pitched in relief and had a good season, posting a 2.27 ERA, and now, a year later, he's getting his shot.

"This is always what he's dreamed of doing," Mozeliak said. "Candidly, he felt like this is what he was going to do last year... I have a lot of confidence in him."

• It's looking more and more like Brian Wilson will open the year on the disabled list. And Cody Ross limped off the field.

• Heard this: The Rangers will likely decide by the weekend how they will use Neftali Feliz at the outset of the season. Alexi Ogando has been moved to the bullpen.

Matt Harrison had a good outing, perhaps locking up a spot in the Texas rotation. Meanwhile, Brandon Webb has been shut down again; we are nearing the two-year anniversary of his last appearance in a major league game, Anthony Andro writes.

• Heard this: The Nationals signed Oliver Perez based on a recommendation by pitching coordinator Spin Williams, who knows Perez from the days when both were with the Pittsburgh Pirates. There is no risk at all in this move, because Perez is being paid the minimum salary -- with the Mets picking up the rest -- and if Perez finds himself, there could be some reward for Washington.

Gio Gonzalez continues to have an overpowering spring: He has a 2.14 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 21⅔ innings after his start Wednesday.

Brandon McCarthy, who will be Oakland's No. 5 starter, has altered his pitching style, Susan Slusser writes.

George Sherrill is having a shaky spring training, David O'Brien writes.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Kyle Drabek will be a part of the Toronto rotation at the outset of the season, in the No. 2 spot.

2. Rick Ankiel is likely to be the center fielder for the Nationals, which is not good news for Nyjer Morgan.

3. Brett Lawrie was sent to the minors -- but he will be back soon, Mike Rutsey writes.

4. Luis Castillo is happy for his opportunity with the Phillies, writes D. Murphy.

5. Brad Emaus is going to get a shot to be the Mets' second baseman.

6. Joe Girardi seemed to hint that Freddy Garcia will be the No. 4 starter, over Bartolo Colon, Erik Boland writes. I think the bottom line in this conversation for the Yankees is this: Garcia has a recent track record, given that he is coming off a 12-win, 157-inning season with Chicago, and Colon -- who has a total of 257 innings in the big leagues since the end of the 2005 season -- does not.

7. Matt Reynolds remains on target to win a job in the Colorado bullpen.

8. Kila Ka'aihue is likely to see more time at first base than Billy Butler, writes Bob Dutton.

9. The Reds figure to choose between Jeremy Hermida and Fred Lewis, for an extra outfielder.

10. Carlos Silva made a great case for himself, Paul Sullivan writes. Mike Quade wants the roles for the staff set by Saturday.

11. Kevin Slowey is adjusting to the bullpen.

12. Julio Borbon is likely to be the Texas center fielder.

13. Chris Johnson could be the long-term answer at third base for Houston, Richard Justice says.

14. Jason Michaels is a guy who can help the Astros in a pinch.

15. Matt Dominguez is not ready to hit in the big leagues, writes Mike Berardino.

16. The Rays' bullpen is basically settled, says Joe Maddon.

17. Dustin Ackley was sent to the minors, and Jack Wilson will open the year as the Mariners' second baseman, writes Geoff Baker.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brandon Morrow will start the year on the disabled list. There are a lot of components to this decision, including the Jays being proactive in managing Morrow's innings count early in the season. With Morrow feeling at less than 100 percent because of the muscular strain, the thinking was that it was better to make sure he's OK -- and to take the opportunity to pull back on the reins a little bit.

Remember, Morrow threw only 146.1 innings in 2010, striking out 178, so the Jays will probably keep him in the range of 175-180 innings this year. Morrow will make his debut on April 8.

2. It looks like Roy Oswalt is OK, after taking a line drive off his neck.

3. The Mets want Carlos Beltran ready for the start of the season, writes David Lennon.

4. Within this notebook, there is word that Vernon Wells came out of a game with a tight hamstring.

5. Carlos Guillen's future with the Tigers is in serious doubt.

6. A surgeon thinks Jake Peavy is OK; the target date seems to be May 1, writes Mark Gonzales.

7. John Jaso is dealing with a groin injury.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. We're coming up on the two-year anniversary of the day that Major League Baseball formed a committee to study the Oakland Athletics' ballpark situation.

2. Jorge Posada is willing to play elsewhere in 2012 if the Yankees don't want him back, writes Kevin Kernan.

3. A former marketing director will run the Negro Leagues Museum.

4. Homer Bailey is expected to get the ball in the Reds' second game.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Brian Matusz didn't last long against the Twins.

2. Watched a lot of the Mets-Cardinals game on Wednesday and came away with this: Jake Westbrook appeared very solid, in his best outing of spring training. And R.A. Dickey appears poised to have another strong season, throwing that hard knuckler of his.

3. Adrian Gonzalez went 3-for-6 in a Triple-A game.

4. Russell Branyan mashed a grand slam.

5. Ervin Santana was The Man for the Angels.

6. Chris Sale made an adjustment that helped him.

7. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire got to use the lineup he'll have during the season, and it has a whole lot of depth, Kelsie Smith writes.

8. Ricky Nolasco had a good outing. Which he needed.

Prospect stuff.

Spoiler [+]
Arizona pitching prospect Jarrod Parker has regained his velocity after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2010 season, but he showed inconsistent command and secondary stuff in big league outings this spring. He looked very promising in his outing in a Double-A game on Wednesday, but with the same issues that can serve as a reminder: velocity comes back quickly after ligament replacement surgery while everything else takes more time.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6253441&story=6253266">http://sports.espn.go.com...253441&...idth=640,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6253266#">[+] Enlarge
mlb_a_parker_300.jpg

AP Photo/Charlie RiedelIf command follows velo, Parker could help the D-backs sooner rather than later.

Parker touched 96 mph and sat 93-95, occasionally dialing down as low as 90 to locate better, and showed promise with all three offspeed pitches, including a changeup with a ton of action on it followed by another changeup with no action on it. That kind of inconsistency isn't surprising for someone in year 2 of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but I imagine it's frustrating for a pitcher who remembers how well he could locate before he got hurt. I'd expect Parker to return to Double-A to start the season and move up, either to Triple-A or to the majors, once his command returns and he shows he can consistently locate at least one of those two breaking balls. Given how strong he looks and how well he's repeating his delivery -- love that long stride to the plate -- that could happen midyear.

• Cubs shortstop Junior Lake certainly looks the part, tall, projectable, an above-average runner, with some bat speed. His swing is long, mostly because he loads his hands so deep, and his overall approach at the plate wasn't great. He held his own last year in high-A, increasing his walk rate and cutting his strikeout rate despite moving up a level, but I would worry that the jump to Class AA would expose the rawness of his offensive game right now. I wouldn't be shocked to see him outgrow shortstop, too.

• Former top Cubs prospect Jay Jackson was a shell of his former self on Wednesday, sitting 87-88 in his first inning of work and 85-87 afterwards with a flat slider, just generally getting whacked like a weed while unable to finish his assignment for the day. I have to assume he's hurt for his fastball to be missing that much velocity.

• On a brighter note, Cubs lefty Chris Rusin, a senior sign out of Kentucky in 2009, showed some promise as a back-end starter with good control of three pitches, nothing straight, including a two-seamer at 87-88 mph that had insane life on it. He throws with very little effort and generally located well, but the velocity is fringy enough (he touched 91 with a four-semaer) that he will get hurt if he doesn't develop plus command -- he left one such fastball over the plate and the hitter, Ed Easley, nearly put it out on Center Avenue. I could see a lot of use for Rusin, though -- at the absolute worst, he's an ideal emergency callup starter, but I think he's more than that. In a world where teams are willing to pay Zach Duke $4.25 million, there's a place for Chris Rusin at $400K.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Nathan to close?[/h3]
3:28PM ET

[h5]Joe Nathan | Twins [/h5]


The Minnesota Twins have yet to name a closer for the upcoming season, but they may know more on the situation this weekend. Joe Nathan is slated to pitch on back-to-back days for the first time all spring, and if he is effective and has no setbacks Saturday and Sunday -- particularly during the second outing -- the right-hander could be named the closer going forward.

Matt Capps, however, has been stellar this spring while Nathan has been inconsistent, allowing six earned runs in 6 1/3 innings while walking three and striking out three. Furthermore, it appears that the club's second all-time saves leader is still building arm strength, lending credence to Capps starting the season as the closer.

To be fair to Nathan, he yielded all six of those runs in 1/3 of an inning versus the Phillies on March 13, so he has shown signs of consistency with the one exception.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Barney, for the win?[/h3]
3:07PM ET

[h5]Darwin Barney | Cubs [/h5]


It's been presumed all spring that either Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker or a trade acquisition would start at second base for the Chicago Cubs on Opening Day, or at least some combination of the aforementioned. But that may not be the case, reports Carrie Muskat.

Darwin Barney has shoved his way into the conversation, says manager Mike Quade: "He's given himself every chance to be an important part of this infield."

Barney, 25, is hitting .359/.405/.436 in 16 games this spring, nearly identical numbers to that of Baker. DeWitt has struggled at .167.

It would be ideal if DeWitt, a left-handed hitter, and one of the two righties were paired together, but the spring numbers don't support such an alignment.

The Cubs could option Barney and wait for things to work themselves out, or make the tough choice to try and pass DeWitt, who is out of options, thrpough waivers.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Feliz to close, rotation set?[/h3]
2:51PM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]


[h5]Rangers likely rotation [h5][/h5][/h5]

The Texas Rangers have set both their rotation and the back end of their bullpen with decisions made today, including the announcement that Neftali Feliz will close for the club again this season, as tweeted by Jeff Wilson.

Also, left-hander Michael Kirkman was sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City, which means Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Tommy Hunter will fill out the rotation in Arlington, at least to start the season.

If Brandon Webb gets right, he'll eventually take one of the bottom three spots, and Kirkman is the next name on the totem pole should someone struggle enough to warrant being replaced.

Scott Feldman could also be in the mix to some extent, as could Martin Perez, but the left-handed prospect may not be ready until late in the season.

Alexi Ogando, who also got a look as a starter, will almost certainly be Feliz's main right-handed setup man.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Replacing Ross by the bay[/h3]
2:10PM ET

[h5]Cody Ross | Giants [/h5]


Cody Ross is likely to start the season on the disabled list with a calf injury, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, which may open up a roster spot for Nate Schierholtz or even Travis Ishikawa.

Aaron Rowand and Mark DeRosa figure to fill in for Ross with Andrew Torres and Pat Burrell manning center and left field. Schierholtz, a natural right fielder, could make the club by default, or the Giants can choose to use DeRosa exclusively in the outfield.

The extent of Ross's calf injury is unknown, but it doesn't appear to be a long-term problem, so the club isn't likely to check on permanent solutions at this time.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could Minor be back?[/h3]
1:57PM ET

[h5]Atlanta Braves [/h5]


UPDATE: Jair Jurrjens left his start Thursday after one inning of work, but as David O'Brien tweets did not walk off the field limping so it's difficult to blame the right-hander's previous problems with his knee and hamstring.

But if Jurrjens is hurt, Minor is likely to be called back to start in his place.

...

The Atlanta Braves' No. 5 starter competition has come down to right-hander Brandon Beachy and lefty Mike Minor, and CBS Sports' Danny Knobler tweets that the strong expectation is that Beachy will get the nod.

Minor would then head back to Triple-A Gwinnett, but may not be down long. The Braves know what he's capable of and it's not like he lost the competition -- his spring numbers were strong, Beachy was just a little bit better. Minor is likely to be the first arm called if a starter lands on the disabled list, and right-hander Jair Jurrjens will be on injury watch from the get-go.

If the rotation remains healthy, the Braves could use one of them as trade bait to land help in another area.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Rendon's draft status[/h3]
1:34PM ET

[h5]Top Draft Prospects [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
When the season began five weeks ago, Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon was the No. 1 prospect thanks to plus defense, and advanced approach at the plate and above-average power. But he's slipped to No. 2 in the latest Future 50, due to some timing issues at the plate and the fact that a shoulder problem prevented him from playing third base.

Until now, that is. Rendon doubled, walked and was hit by a pitch in five trips to the plate Wednesday night versus Houston, but more importantly returned to the hot corner. He handled three ground balls, including one on a sacrifice bunt, with no apparent issues making the throw.

If Rendon continues to show no ill-affects of the ankle injury or the shoulder problem and his bat heats up as the weather warms a bit, the Pittsburgh Pirates may have one tough decision at No. 1 overall.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Boyer, Izzy vie for final spot[/h3]
1:23PM ET

[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3289Jason Isringhausen, who has said he'd retire rather than accept a minor league assignment, is making a strong case to make the roster out of spring camp. But so is Blaine Boyer, and the right-hander's opt-out clause may force the hand of the Mets sooner rather than later.

Isringhausen experienced some inflammation earlier this week but felt fine after a bullpen session Wednesday, tweeted the imitable Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

Boyer's numbers are slightly better than that of Isringhausen's and the latter's injury history may ultimately make the Mets' decision an easy one.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Reyes among final four[/h3]
1:12PM ET

[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]


The Boston Red Sox and Dennys Reyes have agreed to extend his out clause until Saturday, giving the club more time to decide between the veteran left-hander and fellow southpaw arms such as Rich Hill, Randy Williams and Andrew Miller.

Miller has struggled this spring but the other three have all compiled strong cases to make the club. Reyes, Hill and Williams may have even been good enough to attract some attention from other clubs, since only one of them is likely to make the 25-man roster.

Reyes' opt-out clause is for just an instance, giving him a few days to find a club before the start of the regular season -- if the Red Sox don't choose to keep him. Hill, Miller and Williams lack such a clause.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Gutierrez out for Opening Day?[/h3]
1:02PM ET

[h5]Franklin Gutierrez | Mariners [/h5]


Franklin Gutierrez was diagnosed with a slow digestive tract earlier this month but a change in diet has yet to help him shake the stomach issues that have plagued for the last year or so. He hasn't played in almost a week and is undergoing more tests, reports The News Tribune.

The club reassigned veteran outfielder Gabe Gross to minor league camp this week and was expected to keep veteran Ryan Langerhans on the roster and option Michael Saunders to Triple-A Tacoma. That may change in Saunders' favor if Gutierrez isn't healthy soon.

Saunders and Langerhans both can handle center field with Gutierrez unavailable, but the Gold Glover played through similar issues last season so barring unforeseen issues with his current ailment, it's still a better bet that he's ready by Opening Day.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Lewis, Hermida battle it out[/h3]
12:45PM ET

[h5]Cincinnati Reds [/h5]


The Cincinnati Reds are planning to carry five outfielders to open the season, which means on top of keeping starters Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs along with the two left field options in Chris Heisey and Johnny Gomes, they'll take either Jeremy Hermida or Fred Lewis along for the ride, too.

At the plate, Hermida is winning this contest hands down, as he's hitting .355/.488/.677 with three homers and a 9-5 BB/K ratio. Lewis has just seven hits in 40 at-bats and has yet to homer. He does have a bit of a defensive advantage, however, and is a better baserunner.

But considering Heisey can spell Stubbs in center as well as Lewis, Hermida may have a decided advantage heading into the final week of spring camp. The loser is likely to become a free agent.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could Guillen be done in Motown?[/h3]
11:16AM ET

[h5]Carlos Guillen | Tigers [/h5]


Carlos Guillen has been slow to recover from microfracture knee surgery and will begin the season on the disabled list. The Tigers aren't sure when Guillen will return and there is some speculation whether he has played his last game in a Detroit uniform.

Lynn Henning of the Detroit News says Guillen's tenure with the Bengals is in serious doubt due to lingering issues with the knee.

"The Tigers will need to get on with their lives," Henning predicts. "Guillen probably gets bought out even if he escapes the DL."

Manager Jim Leyland confirmed earlier this week that Will Rhymes will open the season as his starting second baseman with Scott Sizemore headed to Triple-A. Rhymes' performance could influence whether the Tigers are willing to cut the cord with Guillen, whose first goal would simply be to prove he is healthy enough to contribute defensively.

Guillen had big seasons at the plate for the Tigers in 2006 and 2007, but has not come close to those numbers since.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Playing it safe with Morrow[/h3]
10:51AM ET

[h5]Brandon Morrow | Blue Jays [/h5]


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28734Brandon Morrow will start the season on the disabled list, forcing the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jaysToronto Blue Jays to dig one step deeper into their starting pitching crop to start the season.

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reports highly rated prospect Kyle Drabek will move into the second spot in the rotation between Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil. Jo-Jo Reyes will go fourth followed by Jesse Litsch.

If all goes well, Morrow is expected to miss just one outing, putting the competition for starts on hold for the time being.

The April outings will turn into auditions for Reyes and Litsch, with Marc Rzepczynski waiting in the wings should one of them falter.

Our Buster Oleny gives his take on why Morrow is headed to the DL:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Morrow's innings
"There are a lot of components to this decision, including the Jays being proactive in managing Morrow's innings count early in the season. With Morrow feeling at less than 100 percent because of the muscular strain, the thinking was that it was better to make sure he's OK -- and to take the opportunity to pull back on the reins a little bit. Remember, Morrow threw only 146.1 innings in 2010, striking out 178, so the Jays will probably keep him in the range of 175-180 innings this year."
http://[h3]Silva's late rally[/h3]
10:46AM ET

[h5]Carlos Silva | Cubs [/h5]


Maybe the possibility of losing a job brings out the best in Carlos Silva.

The Cubs' right-hander showed up at Cubs camp seemingly miffed that he would even have to compete for a rotation spot. After a series of shaky outings, Silva appears to have fallen far behind Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner for the final two spots.

The Cubs wanted to give Silva one more look and he responded by retiring 17 of the last 18 batters he faced in Wednesday's outing Oakland. At the very least, manager Mike Quade has a much tougher decision to make, writes Paul Sullivan in the Chicago Tribune.

Cashner, viewed as a centerpiece of the Cubs's future, is Silva's main competition for now. Cashner sports a 3.97 ERA in four games, but he has issued seven bases on balls.

Wednesday?s performance also could enhance the trade value for Silva, but a $11.5 million contract will be a major obstacle.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Slowey be traded?[/h3]
10:25AM ET

[h5]Kevin Slowey | Twins [/h5]


After months of uncertainty, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire answered his rotation questions Tuesday, naming Scott Baker as his fifth starter and moving Kevin Slowey to the bullpen.

Slowey's name will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors, but La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune notes that the Twins used nine different starters last season, so there is plenty of incentive to keep the right-hander around as insurance.

Joe Christensen of the Tribune writes Thursday that Slowey is making the adjustment to a bullpen role.

The chances of Slowey being traded could increase if the Twins feel top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is ready for a promotion at midseason.

Colorado and Toronto have been mentioned as possible destinations for Slowey in recent weeks. The Rockies, however, are now more comfortable using Esmil Rogers as their fifth starter in place of the injured Aaron Cook.

Milwaukee has pitching issues due to Zack Greinke's uncertain health, but the Brewers may be unwilling and unable to give up top minor league talent for Slowey, especially if Greinke misses only a few starts.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Lawrie's timetable[/h3]
10:19AM ET

[h5]Toronto Blue Jays [/h5]


The Toronto Blue Jays sent Brett Lawrie to the minor leagues Wednesday, but not before the 21-year-old infielder cut down the timetable before his major league debut.

Mike Rutsey of the Toronto Sun reports that Lawrie was thought to be a year or two away from the big leagues. But that thinking changed and Lawrie could end up in the majors at some point in 2011.

Lawrie, acquired from Milwaukee in the offseason, made the switch to third base from second this spring. When the Blue Jays feel Lawrie is ready, that could prompt a move of Jose Bautista from third base to right field.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Tough call on Garcia[/h3]
10:05AM ET

[h5]Freddy Garcia | Yankees [/h5]


Freddy Garcia seemed to be closing in on the fifth spot in the New York Yankees' rotation, but back-to-back shaky outings have moved him "from front-runner to fringe candidate," reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

Erik Boland of Newsday has a different take, writing that manager Joe Girardi is dropping hints that Garcia will be the No. 5 starter over Bartolo Colon.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30400Ivan Nova has been impressive in his last four outings and has all but locked up the No. 4 spot.

Ben Shpigel of the New York Times reports Garcia may not have another chance to face major league hitters before the Yankees make a decision. Garcia will pitch in a minor league game Thursday. Girardi will be in attendance, but the manager admits it will be difficult to evaluate a performance in a minor league game.

Our Buster Olney says the choice will come down to more than just Grapefruit League outings:

- Doug Mittler

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[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Who is No. 5 in the Bronx?
"I think the bottom line in this conversation for the Yankees is this: Garcia has a recent track record, given that he is coming off a 12-win, 157-inning season with Chicago, and Colon -- who has a total of 257 innings in the big leagues since the end of the 2005 season -- does not."

http://[h3]Concerns with Sherrill?[/h3]
9:54AM ET

[h5]George Sherrill | Braves [/h5]


Are the Atlanta Braves growing more concerned with the performance of reliever George Sherrill?

Sherrill squandered a 3-1 lead against Florida Wednesday for his third rocky outing in eight spring appearances. While team officials downplayed things, David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC reports "eyebrows are surely being raised" over Sherrill's struggles.

The Braves gave Sherrill a $1.2 million deal after he posted a career-worst 6.69 ERA in 65 appearances for the Dodgers last season. An Opening Day roster spot appears to be a guarantee, but the club could cut the cord at some point if Sherrill doesn't improve.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Ankiel claims CF job in DC?[/h3]
9:33AM ET

[h5]Rick Ankiel | Nationals [/h5]


The Washington Nationals apparently are poised to name Rick Ankiel as their regular center fielder, feeling he has more of an upside than Nyjer Morgan or Roger Bernadina.

Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports the Nats have "reached a near-final decision" on Ankiel, who is hitting just .200 this spring but has drawn praise from manager Jim Riggleman.

Kilgore says the Nats are counting on a healthy Ankiel regaining his form from 2008 when he hit 25 homers and drove in 71 runs for the Cardinals.

The Nats would then face a tough decision on Morgan, who could be on the trading block. Rumor Central's Jason A. Churchill suggests the Dodgers might be interested with Matt Kemp moving to a corner outfield spot.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Deciding on a catcher in Houston[/h3]
8:33AM ET

[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astroshttp://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astrosHouston Astros are still formulating a Plan B behind the plate after learning that Jason Castro has been diagnosed with a medial meniscus tear of the right knee and may miss the season.

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark hears that the Astros would like to add a veteran catcher, but have "just about zero money to spend." An official of one club tells Stark they have "nothing going" on that front.

Castro's injury has meant more playing time for Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles while non-roster invite Carlos Corporan also has played himself into consideration with a strong spring.

There were reports the Astros were looking at the Nats' http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28714Jesus Flores, but MLB.com's Bill Ladson says that interest as cooled.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The latest on Granderson[/h3]
8:01AM ET

[h5]Curtis Granderson | Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees will need to do some shuffling in the outfield, at least temporarily, if Curtis Granderson is forced to miss the start of the season with an oblique strain.

Granderson showed some improvement Wednesday, but his availability for the start of the season remained uncertain.

The Yankees didn't send Granderson for an MRI, which is an encouraging sign, but the center fielder could end up on the disabled list to prevent the injury from lingering all season.

If Granderson lands on the DL, Brett Gardner would move back to center field, leaving more playing time in left field to Andruw Jones. Justin Maxwell or Greg Golson also could make the Opening Day roster as a backup infielder.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Closer by committee in Atlanta[/h3]
7:47AM ET

[h5]Atlanta Braves [/h5]


All spring it's been a battle between left-hander Johnny Venters and right-hander http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30653Craig Kimbrel for the right to close games for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-bravesAtlanta Braves this season.

The competition will continue into the regular season after manager Fredi Gonzalez confirmed Wednesday that the relievers will share the closer duties.

Venters went another scoreless inning Wednesday and has yet to allow a run in eight frames this spring. Kimbrel, however, has rallied back from a sluggish start to make it a contest.

The dual closer format will allow Gonzalez to mix and match, depending on whether left-handed or right-handed hitters are coming up. At some stage, Gonzalez will be tempted to declare a primary closer, and our guess is Kimbrel if he can consistently throw strikes.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Emaus leads way for Mets' 2B job[/h3]
7:26AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


The candidates for the New York Mets' second base job have been falling one by one, and the surprise winner appears to be Rule 5 draftee Brad Emaus.

Luis Castillo was released last week and Justin Turner was sent to the minor leagues Wednesday. Daniel Murphy and Luis Hernandez technically remain in the hunt, but Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports Emaus is the clear leader.

Murphy will make the team as a left-handed bat off the bench, but was unable to land the starting job due to his shaky defense.

Emaus has a big supporter in Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi, who drafted the infielder out of Tulane while general manager of the Blue Jays and was influential in the Mets selecting him in the Rule 5 draft.

The selection of Emaus would be another indication that the Mets are looking to quickly turn the page on the Omar Minaya regime. Another Rule 5 draftee, reliever Pedro Beato, is expected to land a spot on the 25-man roster.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Wilson's replacement[/h3]
7:06AM ET

[h5]Brian Wilson | Giants [/h5]


While it would be temporary, no doubt, the San Francisco Giants may need to start planning for someone else to handle the ninth inning early this season, as Brian Wilson's oblique injury isn't healing as fast as the club had hoped, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.

At this stage, Wilson could end up starting the season on the disabled list.

The candidates include right-hander Sergio Romo and left-hander Jeremy Affeldt, with Javier Lopez and Santiago Casilla as pottential backup options. Affeldt recorded four saves a year ago and 13 in 2004 for the Kansas City Royals. Romo had a monstrous season last year in a setup role.

Wilson isn't expected to miss a lot of time, so the Giants aren't in the market for a long-term answer at this stage.
 
Spoiler [+]
Aaron Harang grew up about five minutes from what was once known as Jack Murphy Stadium in San Diego and would go to the park to watch the Padres, to watch Tony Gwynn; so signing with his hometown team over the winter was a good fit for him. His whole family is in San Diego, and his wife's whole family is there, too.

insider_a_harang_sy_200.jpg

AP Photo/Charlie RiedelAaron Harang's fly ball tendencies now will be rewarded.

But the comfort level for Harang in San Diego will go beyond any daycare help from the relatives. After years of pitching in the Reds' tiny ballpark, where just about any ball hit into the air to right field was a candidate to land in the Ohio River, Harang will now make his home starts in Petco Park, which swallows fly balls.

For Harang, this is a very big deal, because he is a fly ball pitcher. Over the past four years, Harang ranks ninth among all pitchers (minimum 600 IP) in fly ball percentage (42.2):

Ted Lilly: 49.1
Jered Weaver: 48.0
Tim Wakefield: 46.0
Scott Kazmir: 45.0
Scott Baker: 45.0
Matt Cain: 44.4
Ervin Santana: 42.9
Johan Santana: 42.7
Aaron Harang: 42.2

Scott Regan of ESPN Stats & Information considered all the home runs that Harang allowed since the start of 2008 and imagined a universe in which Harang had been pitching in Petco Park over the past three years, rather than in Cincinnati. The difference would have been enormous.

From Scott: "Using the HitTracker Software, I was able to transpose/overlay every home-game home run that Harang has given up since 2008 (43 total) and plot it at PETCO. Looking at the diagram, where the park change might benefit Harang seems to be in right/right center where 11 of the home runs he had given up would have stayed in the park at Petco. Over the past three years (2008 to 2010), Harang has given up more home runs to right/right center than any other part of the park.

17 -- Right/Right center
16 -- Left/Left center
10 -- Center

Overall, 13 of the 43 home runs Harang gave up at home would not have been home runs in San Diego (30 percent). So as you see in the graphic, all the red dots are home runs in Cincy that wouldn't be in San Diego."

harang1.jpg

The red dots represent home runs in Cincy that would have been mere fly outs in San Diego.

Harang does feel that over time, pitching in Cincinnati affected his choices. Rather than pounding the strike zone with fastballs -- which is the approach that Harang had always had -- Harang felt himself trying to miss bats. Rather than challenging hitters, he became more apt to throw a breaking ball. "The last couple of years, I felt I was pitching away from contact, and in turn making mistakes," he said the other day.

After the Padres signed Harang, San Diego pitching coach Darren Balsley reviewed videotape from Harang's best seasons and determined that over time, Harang had tended to quicken his delivery. With this in mind, Harang and Balsley have worked to slow down the right-hander's mechanics, to get back to a little higher leg kick and holding his weight back on his right leg a little longer, before he drives toward the plate.

Chris Young had success for the Padres for years, thriving in Petco Park, with some dynamics similar to those of Harang -- a deceptive delivery that makes his fastball look a little faster, and as an acute fly ball pitcher. Harang isn't going to tailor his pitch selection to Petco Park; he just wants to get back to throwing the way he did in 2006 and 2007. "You can't go in with the whole mindset of 'I can make mistakes,'" he said. "I'm not going to go in there and nit-pick around. I'm going to be aggressive."

---

Harang has had an OK spring training, although he is the type of pitcher who could be particularly impacted by the conditions in Arizona.

Another member of the San Diego rotation, Tim Stauffer, had a good outing.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• John Mozeliak, the general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, brought his golf clubs to spring training, and on the first day he arrived those sticks were placed in the trunk of his car. And the GM hasn't touched them since, because of a camp that began hectically. The Albert Pujols negotiations ended without an agreement, and then Adam Wainwright blew out his elbow. As Mozeliak talked over the phone on Wednesday morning, he mentioned that he is about to ask for the clubs to be packed away, to be taken to St. Louis.

The Cardinals' camp settled, though, after the Wainwright injury. Lance Berkman had elbow and leg issues early, but seems to be doing OK, and while new shortstop Ryan Theriot hasn't hit much this spring, Mozeliak feels like he's fit in well.

The Cardinals are also heartened by what they've seen from Kyle McClellan, who is expected to take Wainwright's spot in the St. Louis rotation. "In terms of what we've seen, it's what we would've expected," Mozeliak said. "He has a strong repertoire of pitches. The big challenge for him is going to be going through a lineup multiple times."

It's not as if the Cardinals are converting a lifelong reliever to plug a hole. McClellan competed against Jaime Garcia for a spot in the St. Louis rotation in the spring of 2010, and when he was told that he was being moved to the bullpen, he was deeply disappointed. McClellan pitched in relief and had a good season, posting a 2.27 ERA, and now, a year later, he's getting his shot.

"This is always what he's dreamed of doing," Mozeliak said. "Candidly, he felt like this is what he was going to do last year... I have a lot of confidence in him."

• It's looking more and more like Brian Wilson will open the year on the disabled list. And Cody Ross limped off the field.

• Heard this: The Rangers will likely decide by the weekend how they will use Neftali Feliz at the outset of the season. Alexi Ogando has been moved to the bullpen.

Matt Harrison had a good outing, perhaps locking up a spot in the Texas rotation. Meanwhile, Brandon Webb has been shut down again; we are nearing the two-year anniversary of his last appearance in a major league game, Anthony Andro writes.

• Heard this: The Nationals signed Oliver Perez based on a recommendation by pitching coordinator Spin Williams, who knows Perez from the days when both were with the Pittsburgh Pirates. There is no risk at all in this move, because Perez is being paid the minimum salary -- with the Mets picking up the rest -- and if Perez finds himself, there could be some reward for Washington.

Gio Gonzalez continues to have an overpowering spring: He has a 2.14 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 21⅔ innings after his start Wednesday.

Brandon McCarthy, who will be Oakland's No. 5 starter, has altered his pitching style, Susan Slusser writes.

George Sherrill is having a shaky spring training, David O'Brien writes.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Kyle Drabek will be a part of the Toronto rotation at the outset of the season, in the No. 2 spot.

2. Rick Ankiel is likely to be the center fielder for the Nationals, which is not good news for Nyjer Morgan.

3. Brett Lawrie was sent to the minors -- but he will be back soon, Mike Rutsey writes.

4. Luis Castillo is happy for his opportunity with the Phillies, writes D. Murphy.

5. Brad Emaus is going to get a shot to be the Mets' second baseman.

6. Joe Girardi seemed to hint that Freddy Garcia will be the No. 4 starter, over Bartolo Colon, Erik Boland writes. I think the bottom line in this conversation for the Yankees is this: Garcia has a recent track record, given that he is coming off a 12-win, 157-inning season with Chicago, and Colon -- who has a total of 257 innings in the big leagues since the end of the 2005 season -- does not.

7. Matt Reynolds remains on target to win a job in the Colorado bullpen.

8. Kila Ka'aihue is likely to see more time at first base than Billy Butler, writes Bob Dutton.

9. The Reds figure to choose between Jeremy Hermida and Fred Lewis, for an extra outfielder.

10. Carlos Silva made a great case for himself, Paul Sullivan writes. Mike Quade wants the roles for the staff set by Saturday.

11. Kevin Slowey is adjusting to the bullpen.

12. Julio Borbon is likely to be the Texas center fielder.

13. Chris Johnson could be the long-term answer at third base for Houston, Richard Justice says.

14. Jason Michaels is a guy who can help the Astros in a pinch.

15. Matt Dominguez is not ready to hit in the big leagues, writes Mike Berardino.

16. The Rays' bullpen is basically settled, says Joe Maddon.

17. Dustin Ackley was sent to the minors, and Jack Wilson will open the year as the Mariners' second baseman, writes Geoff Baker.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brandon Morrow will start the year on the disabled list. There are a lot of components to this decision, including the Jays being proactive in managing Morrow's innings count early in the season. With Morrow feeling at less than 100 percent because of the muscular strain, the thinking was that it was better to make sure he's OK -- and to take the opportunity to pull back on the reins a little bit.

Remember, Morrow threw only 146.1 innings in 2010, striking out 178, so the Jays will probably keep him in the range of 175-180 innings this year. Morrow will make his debut on April 8.

2. It looks like Roy Oswalt is OK, after taking a line drive off his neck.

3. The Mets want Carlos Beltran ready for the start of the season, writes David Lennon.

4. Within this notebook, there is word that Vernon Wells came out of a game with a tight hamstring.

5. Carlos Guillen's future with the Tigers is in serious doubt.

6. A surgeon thinks Jake Peavy is OK; the target date seems to be May 1, writes Mark Gonzales.

7. John Jaso is dealing with a groin injury.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. We're coming up on the two-year anniversary of the day that Major League Baseball formed a committee to study the Oakland Athletics' ballpark situation.

2. Jorge Posada is willing to play elsewhere in 2012 if the Yankees don't want him back, writes Kevin Kernan.

3. A former marketing director will run the Negro Leagues Museum.

4. Homer Bailey is expected to get the ball in the Reds' second game.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Brian Matusz didn't last long against the Twins.

2. Watched a lot of the Mets-Cardinals game on Wednesday and came away with this: Jake Westbrook appeared very solid, in his best outing of spring training. And R.A. Dickey appears poised to have another strong season, throwing that hard knuckler of his.

3. Adrian Gonzalez went 3-for-6 in a Triple-A game.

4. Russell Branyan mashed a grand slam.

5. Ervin Santana was The Man for the Angels.

6. Chris Sale made an adjustment that helped him.

7. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire got to use the lineup he'll have during the season, and it has a whole lot of depth, Kelsie Smith writes.

8. Ricky Nolasco had a good outing. Which he needed.

Prospect stuff.

Spoiler [+]
Arizona pitching prospect Jarrod Parker has regained his velocity after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2010 season, but he showed inconsistent command and secondary stuff in big league outings this spring. He looked very promising in his outing in a Double-A game on Wednesday, but with the same issues that can serve as a reminder: velocity comes back quickly after ligament replacement surgery while everything else takes more time.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6253441&story=6253266">http://sports.espn.go.com...253441&...idth=640,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6253266#">[+] Enlarge
mlb_a_parker_300.jpg

AP Photo/Charlie RiedelIf command follows velo, Parker could help the D-backs sooner rather than later.

Parker touched 96 mph and sat 93-95, occasionally dialing down as low as 90 to locate better, and showed promise with all three offspeed pitches, including a changeup with a ton of action on it followed by another changeup with no action on it. That kind of inconsistency isn't surprising for someone in year 2 of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but I imagine it's frustrating for a pitcher who remembers how well he could locate before he got hurt. I'd expect Parker to return to Double-A to start the season and move up, either to Triple-A or to the majors, once his command returns and he shows he can consistently locate at least one of those two breaking balls. Given how strong he looks and how well he's repeating his delivery -- love that long stride to the plate -- that could happen midyear.

• Cubs shortstop Junior Lake certainly looks the part, tall, projectable, an above-average runner, with some bat speed. His swing is long, mostly because he loads his hands so deep, and his overall approach at the plate wasn't great. He held his own last year in high-A, increasing his walk rate and cutting his strikeout rate despite moving up a level, but I would worry that the jump to Class AA would expose the rawness of his offensive game right now. I wouldn't be shocked to see him outgrow shortstop, too.

• Former top Cubs prospect Jay Jackson was a shell of his former self on Wednesday, sitting 87-88 in his first inning of work and 85-87 afterwards with a flat slider, just generally getting whacked like a weed while unable to finish his assignment for the day. I have to assume he's hurt for his fastball to be missing that much velocity.

• On a brighter note, Cubs lefty Chris Rusin, a senior sign out of Kentucky in 2009, showed some promise as a back-end starter with good control of three pitches, nothing straight, including a two-seamer at 87-88 mph that had insane life on it. He throws with very little effort and generally located well, but the velocity is fringy enough (he touched 91 with a four-semaer) that he will get hurt if he doesn't develop plus command -- he left one such fastball over the plate and the hitter, Ed Easley, nearly put it out on Center Avenue. I could see a lot of use for Rusin, though -- at the absolute worst, he's an ideal emergency callup starter, but I think he's more than that. In a world where teams are willing to pay Zach Duke $4.25 million, there's a place for Chris Rusin at $400K.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Nathan to close?[/h3]
3:28PM ET

[h5]Joe Nathan | Twins [/h5]


The Minnesota Twins have yet to name a closer for the upcoming season, but they may know more on the situation this weekend. Joe Nathan is slated to pitch on back-to-back days for the first time all spring, and if he is effective and has no setbacks Saturday and Sunday -- particularly during the second outing -- the right-hander could be named the closer going forward.

Matt Capps, however, has been stellar this spring while Nathan has been inconsistent, allowing six earned runs in 6 1/3 innings while walking three and striking out three. Furthermore, it appears that the club's second all-time saves leader is still building arm strength, lending credence to Capps starting the season as the closer.

To be fair to Nathan, he yielded all six of those runs in 1/3 of an inning versus the Phillies on March 13, so he has shown signs of consistency with the one exception.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Barney, for the win?[/h3]
3:07PM ET

[h5]Darwin Barney | Cubs [/h5]


It's been presumed all spring that either Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker or a trade acquisition would start at second base for the Chicago Cubs on Opening Day, or at least some combination of the aforementioned. But that may not be the case, reports Carrie Muskat.

Darwin Barney has shoved his way into the conversation, says manager Mike Quade: "He's given himself every chance to be an important part of this infield."

Barney, 25, is hitting .359/.405/.436 in 16 games this spring, nearly identical numbers to that of Baker. DeWitt has struggled at .167.

It would be ideal if DeWitt, a left-handed hitter, and one of the two righties were paired together, but the spring numbers don't support such an alignment.

The Cubs could option Barney and wait for things to work themselves out, or make the tough choice to try and pass DeWitt, who is out of options, thrpough waivers.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Feliz to close, rotation set?[/h3]
2:51PM ET

[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]


[h5]Rangers likely rotation [h5][/h5][/h5]

The Texas Rangers have set both their rotation and the back end of their bullpen with decisions made today, including the announcement that Neftali Feliz will close for the club again this season, as tweeted by Jeff Wilson.

Also, left-hander Michael Kirkman was sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City, which means Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Tommy Hunter will fill out the rotation in Arlington, at least to start the season.

If Brandon Webb gets right, he'll eventually take one of the bottom three spots, and Kirkman is the next name on the totem pole should someone struggle enough to warrant being replaced.

Scott Feldman could also be in the mix to some extent, as could Martin Perez, but the left-handed prospect may not be ready until late in the season.

Alexi Ogando, who also got a look as a starter, will almost certainly be Feliz's main right-handed setup man.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Replacing Ross by the bay[/h3]
2:10PM ET

[h5]Cody Ross | Giants [/h5]


Cody Ross is likely to start the season on the disabled list with a calf injury, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, which may open up a roster spot for Nate Schierholtz or even Travis Ishikawa.

Aaron Rowand and Mark DeRosa figure to fill in for Ross with Andrew Torres and Pat Burrell manning center and left field. Schierholtz, a natural right fielder, could make the club by default, or the Giants can choose to use DeRosa exclusively in the outfield.

The extent of Ross's calf injury is unknown, but it doesn't appear to be a long-term problem, so the club isn't likely to check on permanent solutions at this time.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could Minor be back?[/h3]
1:57PM ET

[h5]Atlanta Braves [/h5]


UPDATE: Jair Jurrjens left his start Thursday after one inning of work, but as David O'Brien tweets did not walk off the field limping so it's difficult to blame the right-hander's previous problems with his knee and hamstring.

But if Jurrjens is hurt, Minor is likely to be called back to start in his place.

...

The Atlanta Braves' No. 5 starter competition has come down to right-hander Brandon Beachy and lefty Mike Minor, and CBS Sports' Danny Knobler tweets that the strong expectation is that Beachy will get the nod.

Minor would then head back to Triple-A Gwinnett, but may not be down long. The Braves know what he's capable of and it's not like he lost the competition -- his spring numbers were strong, Beachy was just a little bit better. Minor is likely to be the first arm called if a starter lands on the disabled list, and right-hander Jair Jurrjens will be on injury watch from the get-go.

If the rotation remains healthy, the Braves could use one of them as trade bait to land help in another area.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Rendon's draft status[/h3]
1:34PM ET

[h5]Top Draft Prospects [/h5]

[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
When the season began five weeks ago, Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon was the No. 1 prospect thanks to plus defense, and advanced approach at the plate and above-average power. But he's slipped to No. 2 in the latest Future 50, due to some timing issues at the plate and the fact that a shoulder problem prevented him from playing third base.

Until now, that is. Rendon doubled, walked and was hit by a pitch in five trips to the plate Wednesday night versus Houston, but more importantly returned to the hot corner. He handled three ground balls, including one on a sacrifice bunt, with no apparent issues making the throw.

If Rendon continues to show no ill-affects of the ankle injury or the shoulder problem and his bat heats up as the weather warms a bit, the Pittsburgh Pirates may have one tough decision at No. 1 overall.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Boyer, Izzy vie for final spot[/h3]
1:23PM ET

[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3289Jason Isringhausen, who has said he'd retire rather than accept a minor league assignment, is making a strong case to make the roster out of spring camp. But so is Blaine Boyer, and the right-hander's opt-out clause may force the hand of the Mets sooner rather than later.

Isringhausen experienced some inflammation earlier this week but felt fine after a bullpen session Wednesday, tweeted the imitable Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

Boyer's numbers are slightly better than that of Isringhausen's and the latter's injury history may ultimately make the Mets' decision an easy one.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Reyes among final four[/h3]
1:12PM ET

[h5]Boston Red Sox [/h5]


The Boston Red Sox and Dennys Reyes have agreed to extend his out clause until Saturday, giving the club more time to decide between the veteran left-hander and fellow southpaw arms such as Rich Hill, Randy Williams and Andrew Miller.

Miller has struggled this spring but the other three have all compiled strong cases to make the club. Reyes, Hill and Williams may have even been good enough to attract some attention from other clubs, since only one of them is likely to make the 25-man roster.

Reyes' opt-out clause is for just an instance, giving him a few days to find a club before the start of the regular season -- if the Red Sox don't choose to keep him. Hill, Miller and Williams lack such a clause.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Gutierrez out for Opening Day?[/h3]
1:02PM ET

[h5]Franklin Gutierrez | Mariners [/h5]


Franklin Gutierrez was diagnosed with a slow digestive tract earlier this month but a change in diet has yet to help him shake the stomach issues that have plagued for the last year or so. He hasn't played in almost a week and is undergoing more tests, reports The News Tribune.

The club reassigned veteran outfielder Gabe Gross to minor league camp this week and was expected to keep veteran Ryan Langerhans on the roster and option Michael Saunders to Triple-A Tacoma. That may change in Saunders' favor if Gutierrez isn't healthy soon.

Saunders and Langerhans both can handle center field with Gutierrez unavailable, but the Gold Glover played through similar issues last season so barring unforeseen issues with his current ailment, it's still a better bet that he's ready by Opening Day.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Lewis, Hermida battle it out[/h3]
12:45PM ET

[h5]Cincinnati Reds [/h5]


The Cincinnati Reds are planning to carry five outfielders to open the season, which means on top of keeping starters Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs along with the two left field options in Chris Heisey and Johnny Gomes, they'll take either Jeremy Hermida or Fred Lewis along for the ride, too.

At the plate, Hermida is winning this contest hands down, as he's hitting .355/.488/.677 with three homers and a 9-5 BB/K ratio. Lewis has just seven hits in 40 at-bats and has yet to homer. He does have a bit of a defensive advantage, however, and is a better baserunner.

But considering Heisey can spell Stubbs in center as well as Lewis, Hermida may have a decided advantage heading into the final week of spring camp. The loser is likely to become a free agent.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could Guillen be done in Motown?[/h3]
11:16AM ET

[h5]Carlos Guillen | Tigers [/h5]


Carlos Guillen has been slow to recover from microfracture knee surgery and will begin the season on the disabled list. The Tigers aren't sure when Guillen will return and there is some speculation whether he has played his last game in a Detroit uniform.

Lynn Henning of the Detroit News says Guillen's tenure with the Bengals is in serious doubt due to lingering issues with the knee.

"The Tigers will need to get on with their lives," Henning predicts. "Guillen probably gets bought out even if he escapes the DL."

Manager Jim Leyland confirmed earlier this week that Will Rhymes will open the season as his starting second baseman with Scott Sizemore headed to Triple-A. Rhymes' performance could influence whether the Tigers are willing to cut the cord with Guillen, whose first goal would simply be to prove he is healthy enough to contribute defensively.

Guillen had big seasons at the plate for the Tigers in 2006 and 2007, but has not come close to those numbers since.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Playing it safe with Morrow[/h3]
10:51AM ET

[h5]Brandon Morrow | Blue Jays [/h5]


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28734Brandon Morrow will start the season on the disabled list, forcing the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jaysToronto Blue Jays to dig one step deeper into their starting pitching crop to start the season.

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reports highly rated prospect Kyle Drabek will move into the second spot in the rotation between Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil. Jo-Jo Reyes will go fourth followed by Jesse Litsch.

If all goes well, Morrow is expected to miss just one outing, putting the competition for starts on hold for the time being.

The April outings will turn into auditions for Reyes and Litsch, with Marc Rzepczynski waiting in the wings should one of them falter.

Our Buster Oleny gives his take on why Morrow is headed to the DL:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Morrow's innings
"There are a lot of components to this decision, including the Jays being proactive in managing Morrow's innings count early in the season. With Morrow feeling at less than 100 percent because of the muscular strain, the thinking was that it was better to make sure he's OK -- and to take the opportunity to pull back on the reins a little bit. Remember, Morrow threw only 146.1 innings in 2010, striking out 178, so the Jays will probably keep him in the range of 175-180 innings this year."
http://[h3]Silva's late rally[/h3]
10:46AM ET

[h5]Carlos Silva | Cubs [/h5]


Maybe the possibility of losing a job brings out the best in Carlos Silva.

The Cubs' right-hander showed up at Cubs camp seemingly miffed that he would even have to compete for a rotation spot. After a series of shaky outings, Silva appears to have fallen far behind Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner for the final two spots.

The Cubs wanted to give Silva one more look and he responded by retiring 17 of the last 18 batters he faced in Wednesday's outing Oakland. At the very least, manager Mike Quade has a much tougher decision to make, writes Paul Sullivan in the Chicago Tribune.

Cashner, viewed as a centerpiece of the Cubs's future, is Silva's main competition for now. Cashner sports a 3.97 ERA in four games, but he has issued seven bases on balls.

Wednesday?s performance also could enhance the trade value for Silva, but a $11.5 million contract will be a major obstacle.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Will Slowey be traded?[/h3]
10:25AM ET

[h5]Kevin Slowey | Twins [/h5]


After months of uncertainty, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire answered his rotation questions Tuesday, naming Scott Baker as his fifth starter and moving Kevin Slowey to the bullpen.

Slowey's name will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors, but La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune notes that the Twins used nine different starters last season, so there is plenty of incentive to keep the right-hander around as insurance.

Joe Christensen of the Tribune writes Thursday that Slowey is making the adjustment to a bullpen role.

The chances of Slowey being traded could increase if the Twins feel top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is ready for a promotion at midseason.

Colorado and Toronto have been mentioned as possible destinations for Slowey in recent weeks. The Rockies, however, are now more comfortable using Esmil Rogers as their fifth starter in place of the injured Aaron Cook.

Milwaukee has pitching issues due to Zack Greinke's uncertain health, but the Brewers may be unwilling and unable to give up top minor league talent for Slowey, especially if Greinke misses only a few starts.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Lawrie's timetable[/h3]
10:19AM ET

[h5]Toronto Blue Jays [/h5]


The Toronto Blue Jays sent Brett Lawrie to the minor leagues Wednesday, but not before the 21-year-old infielder cut down the timetable before his major league debut.

Mike Rutsey of the Toronto Sun reports that Lawrie was thought to be a year or two away from the big leagues. But that thinking changed and Lawrie could end up in the majors at some point in 2011.

Lawrie, acquired from Milwaukee in the offseason, made the switch to third base from second this spring. When the Blue Jays feel Lawrie is ready, that could prompt a move of Jose Bautista from third base to right field.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Tough call on Garcia[/h3]
10:05AM ET

[h5]Freddy Garcia | Yankees [/h5]


Freddy Garcia seemed to be closing in on the fifth spot in the New York Yankees' rotation, but back-to-back shaky outings have moved him "from front-runner to fringe candidate," reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

Erik Boland of Newsday has a different take, writing that manager Joe Girardi is dropping hints that Garcia will be the No. 5 starter over Bartolo Colon.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30400Ivan Nova has been impressive in his last four outings and has all but locked up the No. 4 spot.

Ben Shpigel of the New York Times reports Garcia may not have another chance to face major league hitters before the Yankees make a decision. Garcia will pitch in a minor league game Thursday. Girardi will be in attendance, but the manager admits it will be difficult to evaluate a performance in a minor league game.

Our Buster Olney says the choice will come down to more than just Grapefruit League outings:

- Doug Mittler

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Who is No. 5 in the Bronx?
"I think the bottom line in this conversation for the Yankees is this: Garcia has a recent track record, given that he is coming off a 12-win, 157-inning season with Chicago, and Colon -- who has a total of 257 innings in the big leagues since the end of the 2005 season -- does not."

http://[h3]Concerns with Sherrill?[/h3]
9:54AM ET

[h5]George Sherrill | Braves [/h5]


Are the Atlanta Braves growing more concerned with the performance of reliever George Sherrill?

Sherrill squandered a 3-1 lead against Florida Wednesday for his third rocky outing in eight spring appearances. While team officials downplayed things, David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC reports "eyebrows are surely being raised" over Sherrill's struggles.

The Braves gave Sherrill a $1.2 million deal after he posted a career-worst 6.69 ERA in 65 appearances for the Dodgers last season. An Opening Day roster spot appears to be a guarantee, but the club could cut the cord at some point if Sherrill doesn't improve.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Ankiel claims CF job in DC?[/h3]
9:33AM ET

[h5]Rick Ankiel | Nationals [/h5]


The Washington Nationals apparently are poised to name Rick Ankiel as their regular center fielder, feeling he has more of an upside than Nyjer Morgan or Roger Bernadina.

Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports the Nats have "reached a near-final decision" on Ankiel, who is hitting just .200 this spring but has drawn praise from manager Jim Riggleman.

Kilgore says the Nats are counting on a healthy Ankiel regaining his form from 2008 when he hit 25 homers and drove in 71 runs for the Cardinals.

The Nats would then face a tough decision on Morgan, who could be on the trading block. Rumor Central's Jason A. Churchill suggests the Dodgers might be interested with Matt Kemp moving to a corner outfield spot.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Deciding on a catcher in Houston[/h3]
8:33AM ET

[h5]Houston Astros [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astroshttp://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astrosHouston Astros are still formulating a Plan B behind the plate after learning that Jason Castro has been diagnosed with a medial meniscus tear of the right knee and may miss the season.

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark hears that the Astros would like to add a veteran catcher, but have "just about zero money to spend." An official of one club tells Stark they have "nothing going" on that front.

Castro's injury has meant more playing time for Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles while non-roster invite Carlos Corporan also has played himself into consideration with a strong spring.

There were reports the Astros were looking at the Nats' http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=28714Jesus Flores, but MLB.com's Bill Ladson says that interest as cooled.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The latest on Granderson[/h3]
8:01AM ET

[h5]Curtis Granderson | Yankees [/h5]


The New York Yankees will need to do some shuffling in the outfield, at least temporarily, if Curtis Granderson is forced to miss the start of the season with an oblique strain.

Granderson showed some improvement Wednesday, but his availability for the start of the season remained uncertain.

The Yankees didn't send Granderson for an MRI, which is an encouraging sign, but the center fielder could end up on the disabled list to prevent the injury from lingering all season.

If Granderson lands on the DL, Brett Gardner would move back to center field, leaving more playing time in left field to Andruw Jones. Justin Maxwell or Greg Golson also could make the Opening Day roster as a backup infielder.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Closer by committee in Atlanta[/h3]
7:47AM ET

[h5]Atlanta Braves [/h5]


All spring it's been a battle between left-hander Johnny Venters and right-hander http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30653Craig Kimbrel for the right to close games for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-bravesAtlanta Braves this season.

The competition will continue into the regular season after manager Fredi Gonzalez confirmed Wednesday that the relievers will share the closer duties.

Venters went another scoreless inning Wednesday and has yet to allow a run in eight frames this spring. Kimbrel, however, has rallied back from a sluggish start to make it a contest.

The dual closer format will allow Gonzalez to mix and match, depending on whether left-handed or right-handed hitters are coming up. At some stage, Gonzalez will be tempted to declare a primary closer, and our guess is Kimbrel if he can consistently throw strikes.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Emaus leads way for Mets' 2B job[/h3]
7:26AM ET

[h5]New York Mets [/h5]


The candidates for the New York Mets' second base job have been falling one by one, and the surprise winner appears to be Rule 5 draftee Brad Emaus.

Luis Castillo was released last week and Justin Turner was sent to the minor leagues Wednesday. Daniel Murphy and Luis Hernandez technically remain in the hunt, but Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports Emaus is the clear leader.

Murphy will make the team as a left-handed bat off the bench, but was unable to land the starting job due to his shaky defense.

Emaus has a big supporter in Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi, who drafted the infielder out of Tulane while general manager of the Blue Jays and was influential in the Mets selecting him in the Rule 5 draft.

The selection of Emaus would be another indication that the Mets are looking to quickly turn the page on the Omar Minaya regime. Another Rule 5 draftee, reliever Pedro Beato, is expected to land a spot on the 25-man roster.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Wilson's replacement[/h3]
7:06AM ET

[h5]Brian Wilson | Giants [/h5]


While it would be temporary, no doubt, the San Francisco Giants may need to start planning for someone else to handle the ninth inning early this season, as Brian Wilson's oblique injury isn't healing as fast as the club had hoped, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.

At this stage, Wilson could end up starting the season on the disabled list.

The candidates include right-hander Sergio Romo and left-hander Jeremy Affeldt, with Javier Lopez and Santiago Casilla as pottential backup options. Affeldt recorded four saves a year ago and 13 in 2004 for the Kansas City Royals. Romo had a monstrous season last year in a setup role.

Wilson isn't expected to miss a lot of time, so the Giants aren't in the market for a long-term answer at this stage.
 
Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter isn't backing down from the American League East's big boys.

In fact, it seems as if Showalter is going out of his way to antagonize the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

In an interview in the April edition of Men's Journal, Showalter lashed out at Yankees captain Derek Jeter as well as Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, according to a report in the Bergen (N.J.) Record.

"Thefirst time we went to Yankee Stadium, I screamed at Derek Jeter fromthe dugout," Showalter told the magazine, according to the BergenRecord. "Our guys are thinking, 'Wow, he's screaming at Derek Jeter.'Well, he's always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I knowhow many calls that team gets -- and yes, he [ticks] me off."

Speaking about the Red Sox, Showalter mocked the notion that Epstein's biggest offseason acquisitions -- namely, left fielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez -- were indicative of the Red Sox GM's savvy.

"I'd like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays]payroll," Showalter told Men's Journal, according to the Record. "Yougot Carl Crawford 'cause you paid more than anyone else, and that'swhat makes you smarter? That's why I like whipping their butt. It'sgreat, knowing those guys with the $205 million payroll are saying,'How the hell are they beating us?' "

Showalter told the Record last week that he might have been better offtoning down his comments in Men's Journal, but he did confirm that hemade them.

On Thursday, Red Sox manager Terry Francona said he had been given "the short version" of the story through a Red Sox staffer.

Francona didn't want to respond to the story itself, but defended his general manager.

"Whatever,"Francona said. "For the record, I think Theo's really smart, whether hehas a high payroll or not. ... I'll stay away from that."

Francona paused a moment, then added: "I think Theo's proved with his choice of managers that he's pretty smart."

http://sports.espn.go.com...11/news/story?id=6252444






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Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter isn't backing down from the American League East's big boys.

In fact, it seems as if Showalter is going out of his way to antagonize the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

In an interview in the April edition of Men's Journal, Showalter lashed out at Yankees captain Derek Jeter as well as Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, according to a report in the Bergen (N.J.) Record.

"Thefirst time we went to Yankee Stadium, I screamed at Derek Jeter fromthe dugout," Showalter told the magazine, according to the BergenRecord. "Our guys are thinking, 'Wow, he's screaming at Derek Jeter.'Well, he's always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I knowhow many calls that team gets -- and yes, he [ticks] me off."

Speaking about the Red Sox, Showalter mocked the notion that Epstein's biggest offseason acquisitions -- namely, left fielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez -- were indicative of the Red Sox GM's savvy.

"I'd like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays]payroll," Showalter told Men's Journal, according to the Record. "Yougot Carl Crawford 'cause you paid more than anyone else, and that'swhat makes you smarter? That's why I like whipping their butt. It'sgreat, knowing those guys with the $205 million payroll are saying,'How the hell are they beating us?' "

Showalter told the Record last week that he might have been better offtoning down his comments in Men's Journal, but he did confirm that hemade them.

On Thursday, Red Sox manager Terry Francona said he had been given "the short version" of the story through a Red Sox staffer.

Francona didn't want to respond to the story itself, but defended his general manager.

"Whatever,"Francona said. "For the record, I think Theo's really smart, whether hehas a high payroll or not. ... I'll stay away from that."

Francona paused a moment, then added: "I think Theo's proved with his choice of managers that he's pretty smart."

http://sports.espn.go.com...11/news/story?id=6252444






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Coming from a guy who is well known to wear his welcome out and the teams takes leaps and bounds after he's fired I'm not gonna get too riled up about him talking
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I give him a year or two in Baltimore.
 
Coming from a guy who is well known to wear his welcome out and the teams takes leaps and bounds after he's fired I'm not gonna get too riled up about him talking
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I give him a year or two in Baltimore.
 
Bedard looking great again tonight fellas. 5 1/3 IP with no runs on one hit and 4 K's.

1.13 ERA for the Spring.
 
Bedard looking great again tonight fellas. 5 1/3 IP with no runs on one hit and 4 K's.

1.13 ERA for the Spring.
 
Spoiler [+]
Right after starter Adam Wainwright was lost for the season, manager Tony La Russa said nobody would feel sorry for the St. Louis Cardinals, and that despite the crushing nature of that injury, the team would just have to plow ahead, because there will be games and the season will be played.

insider_a_larussa_sy_300.jpg

Joel Auerbach/Getty ImagesEven after Adam Wainwright's injury, St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa has remained upbeat about his team's 2011 chances.

So it was within the first day or so after the Wainwright injury that Cardinals GM John Mozeliak found himself in La Russa's office being encouraged by the manager, who spoke of how much he liked the team the Cardinals had put together. La Russa has been around long enough to know that sometimes these kinds of things start to even out among rivals; the other teams start to lose their key players to injuries, too.

Which is precisely what has happened in the National League Central. The Milwaukee Brewers will be without starter Zack Greinke for the first month or so, having lost him to a basketball injury, and they'll know on Monday -- when Shaun Marcum is scheduled to pitch -- whether they'll also have a hole in the No. 2 spot in their rotation. The Cincinnati Reds were thought to have more rotation depth than any team in the division, to go along with their extraordinarily talented core of young position players, but in the past two weeks, the Reds' starters have dropped like falling dominoes. Johnny Cueto was the first, with arm trouble. Bronson Arroyo has been under the weather, and on Thursday he was tested for valley fever; it turns out he has been diagnosed with mononucleosis. Mike Leake has remained healthy but has pitched poorly. On Friday, Homer Bailey -- who had been slotted as high as second in the rotation, as the others started to have problems -- was shut down because of a shoulder impingement, as John Fay writes, an injury that the Reds say is not serious.

Right now, the first turn of the Reds' rotation could look something like this:

Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake
Sam LeCure





Nobody is going to feel sorry for them, and Reds GM Walt Jocketty -- who worked alongside La Russa in Oakland and St. Louis for years -- knows this. On Friday evening, Jocketty sent this email:

"Everything is pretty good here. We have had a couple setbacks with Cueto and Bailey, but they are short term and should only miss a couple of starts. We are lucky to have the depth we have to overcome the setbacks. Bronson has had numerous tests and all is well and he has been cleared to make his next start on Tuesday."

There may be teams with higher ceilings in other divisions, but there is no division that is deeper than the NL Central, which has no less than four teams that appear to have a legitimate shot to finish in first place. They haven't even played a single game that counts, and already it's starting to feel like a long and tough year in this division. Extra credit will be given for competitive survival.

The Brewers picked up a swingman, in Sergio Mitre; Doug Melvin views him as a reliever. The Chicago Cubs cut Braden Looper, who indicated that he is retiring, and Carlos Silva's chances for making the team improved.

Drayton McLane is close to selling the Houston Astros to Jim Crane.There could be greatness in the Astros, writes Richard Justice. Crane was once a student-athlete.

• There are four songs in the running for Troy Tulowitzki's walk-up music; vote here. I know which song I would vote for, but I'm never telling anyone, ever.

• And the hits just keep on coming for the Philadelphia Phillies, who will be without closer Brad Lidge indefinitely. The Phillies are now without their No. 3 hitter from last year, given the absence of Chase Utley, and their No. 5 hitter, given the departure of Jayson Werth, and their closer. To put that into perspective, imagine the New York Yankees without Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Mariano Rivera, or the San Francisco Giants without Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff and Brian Wilson; imagine the Boston Red Sox without Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Jonathan Papelbon. Since that first day when the starting rotation was introduced, Cliff Lee sitting in the middle of Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, almost nothing has gone right for Philadelphia.

And in time, we'll see if Placido Polanco's injury situation is more precarious than what has been let on so far, as rival evaluators believe.

Lidge will start the year for the third time in four years, as Paul Hagen writes.

Tommy Hunter could miss up to six weeks. Not good. Neftali Feliz is not an option for the rotation, by the way.

Mat Latos has an inflamed bursa sac. Not good. Tim Stauffer will pitch on Opening Day.

• It's a wait-and-see situation with Joe Nathan, after a spring in which Matt Capps has thrown well, writes La Velle Neal. It sounds like Nathan will open the year as the Minnesota closer, and then as time goes along, performance will dictate any necessary adjustments.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Within this Nick Piecoro notebook, there is some positive news about J.J. Putz, the Arizona closer.

2. There was a sign of progress for Brian Wilson, as mentioned within this notebook.

3. Jair Jurrjens's injury is believed to be minor.

4. Joe Beimel had a setback and will start the year on the disabled list.

5. The Marlins' starting outfield will be together for the first time.

6. An injury to Brian Tallet has muddled the St. Louis bullpen situation, as Derrick Goold writes.

7. Joel Zumaya could begin throwing soon.

8. A cut on the thumb has hurt a Minnesota reliever.

9. Five Brewers are likely to start the season on the disabled list, including Corey Hart and LaTroy Hawkins.

10. Octavio Dotel will open the season on the Toronto Blue Jays' disabled list.

11. Dioner Navarro has a strain.

12. Adam LaRoche has been shut down until Monday.

13. Kyle Farnsworth had another injury scare.

14. The Red Sox, like a lot of teams, are dealing with injuries a lot, and working to be at the forefront of injury prevention.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Mike Sweeney signed with the Kansas City Royals so he could retire as a Royal. He had a nice career, and nobody represented the sport better. Here's some key dates in Sweeney's tenure, courtesy of the Kansas City Star.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

2. The Cleveland Indians' payroll has shrunk for the third straight season, writes Paul Hoynes.

3. Jayson Werth is OK with hitting in the No. 2 spot in the Washington lineup.

4. The Tampa Bay Rays cut a couple of pitchers.

5. The Yankees added depth in Kevin Millwood. At some point, they're likely to name Freddy Garcia as their No. 5 starter.
[h3]The Battle For Jobs[/h3]
1. Russell Branyan made the Arizona Diamondbacks' roster, and kept the secret from almost everybody.

2. Marc Kroon has kept hope alive, with a dominant inning.

3. Pat Burrell will open the year as the Giants' left fielder, which means Brandon Belt could be headed to the minors.

4. Josh Tomlin won a spot in the Cleveland rotation, but David Huff did not.

5. Wilson Betemit still has a place with the Royals, for now.

6. Esmil Rogers was named as the No. 5 starter for the Colorado Rockies.

7. Chris Carter was sent down, but wasn't shaken by the news, writes Susan Slusser.

8. Robert Andino might not have a spot with the Orioles.
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. At a time when Scott Kazmir is really struggling, Scott Palmer threw out a good outing. I don't think it's overstating the case to say that Kazmir will be pitching for his job as the season opens; the Angels need to see improvement.

2. Kyle Lohse continues to impress, writes Rick Hummel.

3. Within this notebook, there is word that Tsuyoshi Nishioka has hit in 13 consecutive games.

4. Within this notebook, there is word that Starlin Castro has been killing the ball.

5. Gordon Beckham carried a .351 average into Friday's exhibition.

6. Within this Geoff Baker notebook, there is word that Erik Bedard had another strong start.

7. Nate McLouth is finishing strong in spring training.

Spoiler [+]
The first time that Justin Verlander started this spring, he tried two pick-off moves -- nailing the Yankees' Russell Martin on his second try -- and spun a 3-2 curveball to Alex Rodriguez, which is something that veterans really don't do early in camp.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6265580&story=6265549">http://sports.espn.go.com...265580&...idth=640,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6265549#">[+] Enlarge
ins_u_verlander_300.jpg

Matt Stamey/US PresswireVerlander has been on a mission this spring.

But, as Verlander explained the next day, he was on a mission. He has often started slowly in April, with a career ERA over 5.00 for the month, and so he wanted to go into the season at full speed, in the way that he pitched, in the way that he competed, in the way that he felt.

He will make the first start of the season in about 72 hours, against the Yankees on Thursday, but Verlander looks as if he has achieved what he set out to accomplish. He has a spring ERA of 0.96, and rival scouts are raving about how good the Tigers' ace looks, how focused and how precise his command is.

He made six starts in spring training, worked 28 innings, walked three and struck out 23, while allowing just one home run, and a new teammate had very high praise for him Sunday, as Tom Gage reports. Said Brad Penny:

"That might be the best spring I've ever seen out of a pitcher. He has to be feeling really good and confident. He had no hiccups. But he came in with a plan. I haven't seen too many guys do that -- other than to get their work in."
[h3]The Golden Ticket[/h3]
On the last day of the winter meetings, Brian Broderick was in Chandler, Ariz., and his girlfriend was at the computer, listening to the Rule 5 draft. "I heard my name being called, and we both sat around asking, 'Did that really happen?'" Broderick recalled the other day.

Being chosen in the Rule 5 draft is something akin to finding a Golden Ticket for Willy Wonka's chocolate factory. You are guaranteed entrance. After that -- well, who knows.

Players become eligible for the Rule 5 draft when the organizations for whom they have played have decided they don't have a place them, for whatever reason, on the 40-man roster. While pitching at two levels in the Cardinals' organization in 2010, Broderick went 14-7 with a 3.66 ERA, in 26 games, but he wasn't added to the 40-man roster. This made him eligible for the Rule 5 draft, along with hundreds of others, and the Washington Nationals chose him, as the 16th pick overall.

But remember, any player taken in the Rule 5 draft must either stick with his new team on the major league roster the entire season, or else be offered back to his original club. Broderick made up his mind that he wanted to approach this spring training in the same way that he had in previous springs, with the same thought process that he had developed through his time in the minors. Dennis Martinez had talked with him about being aggressive in the strike zone, and Mike Fetters, the former reliever, had worked with him on using his mechanics to get downward sink on the ball.

Broderick felt incredibly nervous the first time he was called into an exhibition. "I was kind of shaking as I was warming up," he said. The whole thing felt surreal to him, because in time, he would be facing players he had followed as a baseball fan -- David Wright, Jose Reyes. His first pitch was a strike, and right away, he felt as if he settled in, with the feeling that what he was doing on the mound was really no different than he had done many times before, only in a different venue.

He has had excellent results this spring, working in 10 games, walking just two in 14.2 innings, posting a 2.45 ERA and holding opponents to a .204 batting average.

For Rule 5 picks, showing an ability to throw strikes is incredibly important, because in all likelihood, they will open the season as a spare part, used in non-pressure situations -- and the last thing that any manager or general manager will want is to have to use other relievers in a one-sided regular-season game to bail out a rookie. "I'm pitching well and just trying to put pressure on them with their situation," Broderick said. "I'm kind of anxious to see what's going to happen."

Washington GM Mike Rizzo wrote in an e-mail, "Brian has been excellent in spring. He has a calm demeanor, and confident personality. He feels he belongs.

"He comes at hitters at great angles, effective downhill plane. Great sink to his fastball, and he pounds the lower half of the zone. Combine that with an effective curveball, and an above-average changeup that he can throw in all counts. This was a prime example of good scouting. Not flashy stuff, but has all the other skills to be an effective major-league pitcher."

Many other Rule 5 picks have been returned to their old organizations already, but as of this moment, it appears that Broderick is going to make the team.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Another veteran who looks tremendous: Alex Rodriguez, who seems to have found his groove, as Pete Caldera writes.

• The Cubs cut Carlos Silva in part because of what he said to reporters on Saturday, and what he said about pitching coach Mark Riggins, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes. And Mike Quade provided a small example of why players love him -- and why GM Jim Hendry chose him over other candidates, including Ryne Sandberg. From Gordon's story:
  • Silva, who was one of the worst performers in camp until his most recent start Wednesday, said the Cubs misled him about his status and criticized Riggins in particular for that, saying, ''He has to learn he's in the big leagues now.'' Riggins previously was the Cubs' minor-league pitching coordinator. Cubs officials, who say Silva was respectful in conversations with them, were livid about the hefty right-hander's public comments.
    ''First of all, he's dead f---ing wrong about my pitching coach. And I got no f---ing time for that,'' manager Mike Quade said. ''And second, respect is a two-way street, period. If you're not willing to give it, you're not getting it.

    ''And the third thing -- that everybody needs to know -- this was my call. If you want to be irritated with somebody, this is on me.''
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Some scouts who have been hovering around the Phillies this spring believe that Placido Polanco's elbow issue is going to be a problem that greatly impacts how many games the third baseman is going to play this year. But remember, it's a long season, and the Phillies are a team with resources. "Dave Montgomery (the Phillies' owner) has a lot invested in this team, and he'll give [Ruben] Amaro the latitude to go get help for that lineup," said a high-ranking executive with another club. "They'll make trades." Something else about the Phillies: Whether they blow through the regular season or barely scrape and claw their way into the playoffs, if, in fact, they survive to play in October, they'll still be a team nobody wants to play because of their rotation.
All of these injuries may make some fans fear this season, rather than look forward to it, writes Phil Sheridan.Meanwhile, the Phillies are taking a look at other relievers, in the aftermath of the Brad Lidge injury.

2. Jake Peavy is ready for extended spring, writes Daryl van Schouwen.

3. Grady Sizemore looked good in his most recent test.

4. Michael Cuddyer is ready to go, after being shut down early in spring training for wart surgery.

5. Jason Kendall suffered a setback.

6. Adam LaRoche will play hurt this year, with a shoulder tear.

7. The Mets have real concerns about Jason Isringhausen's elbow.

8. Pedro Feliciano is hurting, so the Yankees are making other plans, writes Ben Shpigel.

9. As expected, Andrew Bailey will start the year on the disabled list. It looks like he's a few weeks from being activated.

10. Brian Wilson will stay in Arizona, to continue the rehab of his oblique issue.

11. Mat Latos could start the year on the DL.

12. Julio Borbon was scratched with elbow tightness.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Astros added a left-handed bat. Houston will delay its roster moves until the last minute.
2. The Phillies optioned Josh Barfield.

3. The Brewers traded for Nyjer Morgan, but say that Carlos Gomez is still their starting center fielder.

4. Lorenzo Cain was sent to the minors by the Royals, which probably has something to do with how well Melky Cabrera has played this spring.

5. Nyjer Morgan's turbulent stay with Washington is over.

6. Brad Bergesen seems to be leading Chris Tillman as they compete for a rotation spot, writes Jeff Zrebiec.

7. Kenshin Kawakami could start the year in Class AA.

8. Mike Hampton has retired.

9. The lineup that Joe Maddon plans on using tonight will be close to what his Opening Day lineup will be, writes Marc Topkin.

10. Suddenly, the Rangers have a lot of things to debate, writes Randy Galloway. Alexi Ogando could now move into the Texas rotation.

11. The Marlins are not likely to go after Pedro Feliz for their third base job; rather, Florida could go with Donnie Murphy.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Unlikely roster spot for Almonte[/h3]
11:17AM ET

[h5]Milwaukee Brewers [/h5]


One of the feel-good stories of the spring could belong to 33-year-old Erick Almonte.

Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports that, barring a late trade or injury, Almonte claimed the Brewers' final reserve infield spot Sunday when Luis Cruz cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Nashville.

Almonte has played in just 39 major league games, and none since 2003 with the Yankees.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Finding a home for Kawakami[/h3]
11:03AM ET

[h5]Kenshin Kawakami | Braves [/h5]


The Atlanta Braves have been shopping Kenshin Kawakami for months, and the decision to re-assign the Japanese right-hander to minor league camp Sunday is a sign that nothing is close.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves are still hoping that they can trade Kawakami and find a team willing to pay a "respectable portion" of the $6.77 million he is owed this year.

In an updated story, Bowman says the Orioles and Pirates showed some interest in Kawakami over the winter. The greater interest has come from Japanese clubs, but Kawakami still wants to pitch in the United States.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Gomez still the starter in Milwaukee[/h3]
10:41AM ET

[h5]Carlos Gomez | Brewers [/h5]


Sunday's acquisition of Nyjer Morgan immediately called into question the Milwaukee Brewers' commitment to Carlos Gomez as their starting center fielder.

General manager Doug Melvin tells Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel that Gomez remains atop the depth chart. Morgan is viewed as injury insurance that became affordable once the Nationals dropped their asking price.

Gomez has yet to reach the potential predicting of him, posting a .246 batting average over four seasons, so his job his far from etched in stone. At the very least, Morgan's arrival is a warning that a slow start might not be tolerated.

The Brewers had eliminated one candidate to back up Gomez on Friday by trading Chris Dickerson to the New York Yankees for reliever Sergio Mitre.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Izzy on the bubble[/h3]
10:22AM ET

[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]


The race for the final spot in the New York Mets' bullpen is down to veteran Jason Isringhausen and Blaine Boyer, and each helped their cause with a scoreless inning Sunday.

Isringhausen has said he'd retire rather than accept a minor league assignment, and that could be a sticking point.

Isringhausen, who has a history of elbow trouble, experienced some inflammation last week but insists he is feeling fine. David Waldstein of the New York Times reports the Mets are considering asking the reliever to stay in spring training for a week or two to build his arm strength, but Isringhausen said Sunday that he was not inclined to do that.

Isringhausen is on the bubble since Rule 5 draftee Pedro Beato is all but assured of a bullpen spot.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Getting by without Lidge[/h3]
10:01AM ET

[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]


The Philadelphia Phillies are holding their collective breath over the status of closer Brad Lidge, who will have an MRI Tuesday to determine if he has structural damage in his right shoulder.

Lidge will begin the season on the disabled list, with the question being how long he will be sidelined. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel would prefer that one of his two alternatives in the bullpen ? Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras -- took over the closing duties, rather than going with a dual attack. Madson is likely the favorite.

Madson has been stellar this spring and one assistant GM told Rumor Central's Jason A. Churchill this week that the reliever looked "pretty nasty at times," oo the Phillies should be fine until Lidge returns.

The Phillies could look outside the organization, but teams are generally reluctant to trade bullpen depth this early in the season.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Martinez leads in roster race[/h3]
9:38AM ET

[h5]Philadelphia Phillies [/h5]


The Philadelphia Phillies have two bench jobs open on their roster and the inside track for one of them belongs to Michael Martinez, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

With Josh Barfield sent to the minors and Chase Utley scheduled to open the season on the disabled list, the competition includes Martinez, Luis Castillo, Pete Orr and Delwyn Young.

Zolecki notes that manager Charlie Manuel has strong praise for Martinez' defense in both the infield and outfield.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Winn looking for a contender?[/h3]
9:24AM ET

[h5]Randy Winn | Orioles [/h5]


Veteran outfielder Randy Winn is back on the free agent market after being released Monday morning by the Orioles, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.

Winn's options may be limited, but the 36-year-old could be tempted to look for a playoff contender. Winn has played in 1,717 games and has never appeared in a postseason contest, the longest streak among active players.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Final roster spot in Cincinnati[/h3]
9:10AM ET

[h5]Cincinnati Reds [/h5]


The final spot on the Cincinnati Reds' roster is down to Fred Lewis or Juan Francisco for a backup outfield berth, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Lewis and Francisco are both left-handed hitters, but Francisco may have the edge because he also can play third base. Lewis, who is dealing with a sore side, started slowly but has hits in six of his last eight games.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Heilman back to the bullpen?[/h3]
8:38AM ET

[h5]Aaron Heilman | Diamondbacks [/h5]


As recently as Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks appeared to be leaning toward Aaron Heilman as their fifth starter over Armando Galarraga.

Heilman could have locked down the job with a solid outing Sunday, but Bob McManaman reports the job is still open after Heilman allowed eight runs in two innings against the Cincinnati Reds.

After a strong start, Heilman has been in a rut lately, allowing 19 earned runs in his last five outings. Heilman has plenty of bullpen experience and has been an effective reliever, a fact that could work against him.

Galarraga has made just nine relief appearances and would be better suited for a starting role.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Evans' roster spot in jeopardy[/h3]
8:20AM ET

[h5]Nick Evans | Mets [/h5]


Nick Evans has spent parts of the last three seasons with the New York Mets. Sticking around for a fourth season looks like a sticky proposition.

Manager Terry Collins told veteran Willie Harris Sunday that he had earned a roster spot, and the odd man out could be Evans, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

With Daniel Murphy a strong candidate to earn the final spot on the bench, Evans faces a likely trip to the waiver wire. Evans is out of options, making him a likely candidate to be claimed. The first baseman/outfielder could end up on the roster if Carlos Beltran begins the season on the disabled list, but that would be a temporary reprieve.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Finding a fit for Feliz[/h3]
8:05AM ET

[h5]Pedro Feliz | Royals [/h5]


Realizing he was not a fit in Kansas City, veteran third baseman Pedro Feliz asked for and was granted his release from the Royals Sunday night.

Feliz saw little time in camp as Mike Aviles solidified his job as the regular third baseman and Wilson Betemit emerged as the backup.

The Florida Marlins have been mentioned as a possible destination for Feliz while the Fish wait for Matt Dominguez to develop, but Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel says a deal for Feliz is unlikely.

Could Feliz end up back in Philadelphia, where played in 2008 and 2009? The Phillies are auditioning Luis Castillo, but could move Placido Polanco to second if that doesn't pan out. Feliz did not hit well enough for the Phillies' liking, but they may have to settle for less due to Chase Utley's injury.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Twins in no rush to deal Slowey[/h3]
7:43AM ET

[h5]Kevin Slowey | Twins [/h5]


After months of uncertainty, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire answered his rotation questions last week, naming Scott Baker as his fifth starter and moving Kevin Slowey to the bullpen.

While Slowey's name will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors, the Twins are in no rush to trade him, reports Nick Cafardo in Sunday?s Boston Globe. One scout tells Cafardo: "He's throwing too well for them to deal him."

La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune notes that the Twins used nine different starters last season, so there is plenty of incentive to keep the right-hander around as insurance.

Colorado and Toronto have been mentioned as possible destinations for Slowey in recent weeks. The Rockies, however, are now more comfortable using Esmil Rogers as their fifth starter in place of the injured Aaron Cook.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Who closes in Minnesota?[/h3]
7:29AM ET

[h5]Joe Nathan | Twins [/h5]


The Minnesota Twins appear to be leaning toward using Joe Nathan as the closer to start the season, as tweeted by Phil Mackey of ESPN 1500.

But with Nathan's struggles this spring having had elbow surgery last year, Matt Capps' presence is sure to be an important one, and it wouldn't surprise us if Capps got some save chances early, too, or simply takes over the job until Nathan gets right.

Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com sees manager Ron Gardenhire using a combination of Nathan and Capps until Nathan proves he's fully recovered from the surgery.

Nathan's slider has yet to come back all the way and it may take some time, just as it did with left-hander Francisco Liriano.

Fantasy owners may want to double or triple up for saves if Nathan or Capps is on your roster, since there are no guarantees that either ones gets 40-plus save opportunities.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Impact of Bailey injury[/h3]
7:21AM ET

[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]


Andrew Bailey made a visit to renowned orthopedic surgeon James Andrews earlier this month, and an exam on his right forearm did not reveal anything serious. The injury, however, is believed to be significant enough to put the Oakland closer on the disabled list to start the season.

Bailey, a two-time All-Star who has a history of elbow trouble, had 25 saves last year.

The A's may be better equipped to withstand losing their closer than other teams because of the acquisition of left-hander Brian Fuentes and right-hander Grant Balfour But bullpen depth was a main reason for the club?s optimism, so a serious injury to Bailey would have a major impact.

If Fuentes takes over as closer, that would likely elevate http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6365Craig Breslow to the role of lefty set-up man.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Reyes the final piece?[/h3]
7:01AM ET

[h5]Dennys Reyes | Red Sox [/h5]


Dennys Reyes signed a big-league deal with the Boston Red Sox Saturday and was placed on the 40-man roster, pretty much cementing his place on the roster -- though manager Terry Francona stops short of such an declaration.

With Reyes in the fold, the club has one spot left with three arms vying for the role. Left-hander Hideki Okajima and right-handers Alfredo Aceves and Matt Albers continue to battle for the job, but Albers may have the advantage because he is out of options and each of his two fellow competitors have options remaining.

It would seem that Okajima is in line to be the lead lefty in the bullpen -- he has served in the role before for the Sox -- which leaves Albers and Aceves out in the cold.


Piece on the D'Backs.

Spoiler [+]
By all measures, the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks were an utter disaster. They finished with a record of 65-97, the third-worst in all of baseball. Manager A.J. Hinch got fired midway through the season, and general manager Josh Byrnes also got the ax, even with five years remaining on his contract.

And while changes were clearly necessary from a public relations standpoint, a bounce-back season in 2011 probably would have happened whether new manager Kirk Gibson and new GM Kevin Towers came on the scene or not. Even below-average luck in Arizona's bullpen should pull the team within hailing distance of .500, and it is easy to see Arizona's path to a winning season ahead.

Let's start with the baseline. The Diamondbacks finished at 65-97, but their Pythagorean expected win-loss record was a slightly better 69-93, based on runs scored and runs allowed. But why was this mark so poor? Yes, Arizona ranked 15th in runs scored -- middle of the pack, though that is less impressive, given their hitter-friendly ballpark -- but the pitching, particularly the bullpen, performed at a shocking level of incompetence.

Last season, Arizona's bullpen ERA was 5.74. To put that into context, the Chicago Cubs ranked 29th in all of baseball in bullpen ERA -- and Chicago's mark was 4.72, more than a full run better than Arizona's. No team has put up a worse bullpen ERA since 2007, when the Tampa Bay Rays checked in at 6.16 and the Baltimore Orioles posted a mark of 5.75. And no National League bullpen posted a worse ERA than Arizona's 2010 unit did since well before bullpens were used as frequently as they are today. The Colorado Rockies, for reference, never produced a worse bullpen ERA during the height of pre-humidor Coors Field.

But while the ERA is historically unsightly, the components going into the ERA were merely garden-variety bad. Arizona's bullpen xFIP was 4.86 -- still worst in the league, but within hailing distance of the Detroit Tigers' 4.68 and Kansas City Royals' 4.55. Merely by replacing the ERAs of Arizona's returning relievers with their 2010 expected ERAs would knock 43 runs off of their runs allowed total from 2010, bringing their expected win-loss record to 73-89. That's an eight-win improvement over their actual record and four wins above their expected record -- without any changes whatsoever.

Of course, Arizona actually did make some changes as well (after all, it's hard to get fans excited over the winter with a dramatic news conference detailing how the team was unlucky). J.J. Putz stands as the biggest addition to the bullpen, and his 2.83 ERA in 54 innings last season was remarkably close to his xFIP of 2.87. Putz, if he throws the same number of innings in 2011, would be a dramatic improvement over the departed Blaine Boyer, who threw 57 innings with a 4.26 ERA in 2010 -- an xFIP of 4.60, one of the few Arizona pitchers to outperform expected ERA. That exchange alone slices another 10 runs off of Arizona's runs allowed, meaning their expected win-loss record improves to 74-88.

[h4]MAG iPAD APP FREE FOR INSIDERS[/h4]
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The new ESPN The Magazine iPad app includes daily updated content and an iPad-optimized version of each issue of ESPN The Magazine.

Clearly, they'll need some other improvements. Daniel Hernandez (4.31 ERA in 79.1 innings in 2010), acquired this winter from Baltimore in the Mark Reynolds trade, will need to provide quality innings to replace those provided by Jordan Norberto (5.82 ERA in 20 innings), Cesar Valdez (7.65 ERA in 20 innings), Leo Rosales (7.16 ERA in 16.1 innings) and Bobby Howry (10.67 ERA in 14.1 innings). If Hernandez can repeat that 2010 performance while taking on that quartet's forgettable innings, it knocks another 26 runs off of Arizona's runs allowed, bringing their expected win-loss record to 77-85.

And while it is unreasonable to expect Daniel Hudson to put up the 1.69 ERA he managed in 11 starts after coming over in the Edwin Jackson trade last July, Hudson is projected to post an ERA of 3.56 in 2011, according to Dan Szymborski's ZiPS. Replace the combined totals of Edwin Jackson and Hudson from 2010 with that Hudson season, and another 20 runs come off Arizona's runs allowed, bringing their expected win-loss record to 79-83.

So while Kevin Towers stood pat with his pitching -- indeed, his big acquisition other than Putz was starter Zach Duke, a recent spring training casualty -- it will be his hitting that determines if Arizona will finish above or below that break-even mark. A full season from Miguel Montero would go a long way toward making that happen, with a healthy Russell Branyan likely assuring it. ZiPS also likes Justin Upton to significantly improve upon his 2010 campaign, though Kelly Johnson is a likely candidate to regress.

It won't matter, though: It is extremely unlikely that Arizona will suffer through the horrific performances -- and horrific luck -- that it did last season, particularly from the bullpen. Towers is smart enough to know he'd get credit for a turnaround the moment he entered his new office, even if the law of averages had a lot to do with it.
 
Spoiler [+]
Right after starter Adam Wainwright was lost for the season, manager Tony La Russa said nobody would feel sorry for the St. Louis Cardinals, and that despite the crushing nature of that injury, the team would just have to plow ahead, because there will be games and the season will be played.

insider_a_larussa_sy_300.jpg

Joel Auerbach/Getty ImagesEven after Adam Wainwright's injury, St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa has remained upbeat about his team's 2011 chances.

So it was within the first day or so after the Wainwright injury that Cardinals GM John Mozeliak found himself in La Russa's office being encouraged by the manager, who spoke of how much he liked the team the Cardinals had put together. La Russa has been around long enough to know that sometimes these kinds of things start to even out among rivals; the other teams start to lose their key players to injuries, too.

Which is precisely what has happened in the National League Central. The Milwaukee Brewers will be without starter Zack Greinke for the first month or so, having lost him to a basketball injury, and they'll know on Monday -- when Shaun Marcum is scheduled to pitch -- whether they'll also have a hole in the No. 2 spot in their rotation. The Cincinnati Reds were thought to have more rotation depth than any team in the division, to go along with their extraordinarily talented core of young position players, but in the past two weeks, the Reds' starters have dropped like falling dominoes. Johnny Cueto was the first, with arm trouble. Bronson Arroyo has been under the weather, and on Thursday he was tested for valley fever; it turns out he has been diagnosed with mononucleosis. Mike Leake has remained healthy but has pitched poorly. On Friday, Homer Bailey -- who had been slotted as high as second in the rotation, as the others started to have problems -- was shut down because of a shoulder impingement, as John Fay writes, an injury that the Reds say is not serious.

Right now, the first turn of the Reds' rotation could look something like this:

Edinson Volquez
Travis Wood
Bronson Arroyo
Mike Leake
Sam LeCure





Nobody is going to feel sorry for them, and Reds GM Walt Jocketty -- who worked alongside La Russa in Oakland and St. Louis for years -- knows this. On Friday evening, Jocketty sent this email:

"Everything is pretty good here. We have had a couple setbacks with Cueto and Bailey, but they are short term and should only miss a couple of starts. We are lucky to have the depth we have to overcome the setbacks. Bronson has had numerous tests and all is well and he has been cleared to make his next start on Tuesday."

There may be teams with higher ceilings in other divisions, but there is no division that is deeper than the NL Central, which has no less than four teams that appear to have a legitimate shot to finish in first place. They haven't even played a single game that counts, and already it's starting to feel like a long and tough year in this division. Extra credit will be given for competitive survival.

The Brewers picked up a swingman, in Sergio Mitre; Doug Melvin views him as a reliever. The Chicago Cubs cut Braden Looper, who indicated that he is retiring, and Carlos Silva's chances for making the team improved.

Drayton McLane is close to selling the Houston Astros to Jim Crane.There could be greatness in the Astros, writes Richard Justice. Crane was once a student-athlete.

• There are four songs in the running for Troy Tulowitzki's walk-up music; vote here. I know which song I would vote for, but I'm never telling anyone, ever.

• And the hits just keep on coming for the Philadelphia Phillies, who will be without closer Brad Lidge indefinitely. The Phillies are now without their No. 3 hitter from last year, given the absence of Chase Utley, and their No. 5 hitter, given the departure of Jayson Werth, and their closer. To put that into perspective, imagine the New York Yankees without Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Mariano Rivera, or the San Francisco Giants without Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff and Brian Wilson; imagine the Boston Red Sox without Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Jonathan Papelbon. Since that first day when the starting rotation was introduced, Cliff Lee sitting in the middle of Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, almost nothing has gone right for Philadelphia.

And in time, we'll see if Placido Polanco's injury situation is more precarious than what has been let on so far, as rival evaluators believe.

Lidge will start the year for the third time in four years, as Paul Hagen writes.

Tommy Hunter could miss up to six weeks. Not good. Neftali Feliz is not an option for the rotation, by the way.

Mat Latos has an inflamed bursa sac. Not good. Tim Stauffer will pitch on Opening Day.

• It's a wait-and-see situation with Joe Nathan, after a spring in which Matt Capps has thrown well, writes La Velle Neal. It sounds like Nathan will open the year as the Minnesota closer, and then as time goes along, performance will dictate any necessary adjustments.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Within this Nick Piecoro notebook, there is some positive news about J.J. Putz, the Arizona closer.

2. There was a sign of progress for Brian Wilson, as mentioned within this notebook.

3. Jair Jurrjens's injury is believed to be minor.

4. Joe Beimel had a setback and will start the year on the disabled list.

5. The Marlins' starting outfield will be together for the first time.

6. An injury to Brian Tallet has muddled the St. Louis bullpen situation, as Derrick Goold writes.

7. Joel Zumaya could begin throwing soon.

8. A cut on the thumb has hurt a Minnesota reliever.

9. Five Brewers are likely to start the season on the disabled list, including Corey Hart and LaTroy Hawkins.

10. Octavio Dotel will open the season on the Toronto Blue Jays' disabled list.

11. Dioner Navarro has a strain.

12. Adam LaRoche has been shut down until Monday.

13. Kyle Farnsworth had another injury scare.

14. The Red Sox, like a lot of teams, are dealing with injuries a lot, and working to be at the forefront of injury prevention.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Mike Sweeney signed with the Kansas City Royals so he could retire as a Royal. He had a nice career, and nobody represented the sport better. Here's some key dates in Sweeney's tenure, courtesy of the Kansas City Star.

[h4]Buster's New Book[/h4]
busterbook2.jpg
Buster Olney is the author of the book "recipient[/color] of the Jimmy V Award at the ESPYS.

"Surprising and unforgettable." - Mike Krzyzewski

"Olney knows the beating heart of life and the pulse of humanity that makes sports matter." - George F. Will

"A true inspiration." - Pat Summitt

2. The Cleveland Indians' payroll has shrunk for the third straight season, writes Paul Hoynes.

3. Jayson Werth is OK with hitting in the No. 2 spot in the Washington lineup.

4. The Tampa Bay Rays cut a couple of pitchers.

5. The Yankees added depth in Kevin Millwood. At some point, they're likely to name Freddy Garcia as their No. 5 starter.
[h3]The Battle For Jobs[/h3]
1. Russell Branyan made the Arizona Diamondbacks' roster, and kept the secret from almost everybody.

2. Marc Kroon has kept hope alive, with a dominant inning.

3. Pat Burrell will open the year as the Giants' left fielder, which means Brandon Belt could be headed to the minors.

4. Josh Tomlin won a spot in the Cleveland rotation, but David Huff did not.

5. Wilson Betemit still has a place with the Royals, for now.

6. Esmil Rogers was named as the No. 5 starter for the Colorado Rockies.

7. Chris Carter was sent down, but wasn't shaken by the news, writes Susan Slusser.

8. Robert Andino might not have a spot with the Orioles.
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. At a time when Scott Kazmir is really struggling, Scott Palmer threw out a good outing. I don't think it's overstating the case to say that Kazmir will be pitching for his job as the season opens; the Angels need to see improvement.

2. Kyle Lohse continues to impress, writes Rick Hummel.

3. Within this notebook, there is word that Tsuyoshi Nishioka has hit in 13 consecutive games.

4. Within this notebook, there is word that Starlin Castro has been killing the ball.

5. Gordon Beckham carried a .351 average into Friday's exhibition.

6. Within this Geoff Baker notebook, there is word that Erik Bedard had another strong start.

7. Nate McLouth is finishing strong in spring training.

Spoiler [+]
The first time that Justin Verlander started this spring, he tried two pick-off moves -- nailing the Yankees' Russell Martin on his second try -- and spun a 3-2 curveball to Alex Rodriguez, which is something that veterans really don't do early in camp.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6265580&story=6265549">http://sports.espn.go.com...265580&...idth=640,height=750,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6265549#">[+] Enlarge
ins_u_verlander_300.jpg

Matt Stamey/US PresswireVerlander has been on a mission this spring.

But, as Verlander explained the next day, he was on a mission. He has often started slowly in April, with a career ERA over 5.00 for the month, and so he wanted to go into the season at full speed, in the way that he pitched, in the way that he competed, in the way that he felt.

He will make the first start of the season in about 72 hours, against the Yankees on Thursday, but Verlander looks as if he has achieved what he set out to accomplish. He has a spring ERA of 0.96, and rival scouts are raving about how good the Tigers' ace looks, how focused and how precise his command is.

He made six starts in spring training, worked 28 innings, walked three and struck out 23, while allowing just one home run, and a new teammate had very high praise for him Sunday, as Tom Gage reports. Said Brad Penny:

"That might be the best spring I've ever seen out of a pitcher. He has to be feeling really good and confident. He had no hiccups. But he came in with a plan. I haven't seen too many guys do that -- other than to get their work in."
[h3]The Golden Ticket[/h3]
On the last day of the winter meetings, Brian Broderick was in Chandler, Ariz., and his girlfriend was at the computer, listening to the Rule 5 draft. "I heard my name being called, and we both sat around asking, 'Did that really happen?'" Broderick recalled the other day.

Being chosen in the Rule 5 draft is something akin to finding a Golden Ticket for Willy Wonka's chocolate factory. You are guaranteed entrance. After that -- well, who knows.

Players become eligible for the Rule 5 draft when the organizations for whom they have played have decided they don't have a place them, for whatever reason, on the 40-man roster. While pitching at two levels in the Cardinals' organization in 2010, Broderick went 14-7 with a 3.66 ERA, in 26 games, but he wasn't added to the 40-man roster. This made him eligible for the Rule 5 draft, along with hundreds of others, and the Washington Nationals chose him, as the 16th pick overall.

But remember, any player taken in the Rule 5 draft must either stick with his new team on the major league roster the entire season, or else be offered back to his original club. Broderick made up his mind that he wanted to approach this spring training in the same way that he had in previous springs, with the same thought process that he had developed through his time in the minors. Dennis Martinez had talked with him about being aggressive in the strike zone, and Mike Fetters, the former reliever, had worked with him on using his mechanics to get downward sink on the ball.

Broderick felt incredibly nervous the first time he was called into an exhibition. "I was kind of shaking as I was warming up," he said. The whole thing felt surreal to him, because in time, he would be facing players he had followed as a baseball fan -- David Wright, Jose Reyes. His first pitch was a strike, and right away, he felt as if he settled in, with the feeling that what he was doing on the mound was really no different than he had done many times before, only in a different venue.

He has had excellent results this spring, working in 10 games, walking just two in 14.2 innings, posting a 2.45 ERA and holding opponents to a .204 batting average.

For Rule 5 picks, showing an ability to throw strikes is incredibly important, because in all likelihood, they will open the season as a spare part, used in non-pressure situations -- and the last thing that any manager or general manager will want is to have to use other relievers in a one-sided regular-season game to bail out a rookie. "I'm pitching well and just trying to put pressure on them with their situation," Broderick said. "I'm kind of anxious to see what's going to happen."

Washington GM Mike Rizzo wrote in an e-mail, "Brian has been excellent in spring. He has a calm demeanor, and confident personality. He feels he belongs.

"He comes at hitters at great angles, effective downhill plane. Great sink to his fastball, and he pounds the lower half of the zone. Combine that with an effective curveball, and an above-average changeup that he can throw in all counts. This was a prime example of good scouting. Not flashy stuff, but has all the other skills to be an effective major-league pitcher."

Many other Rule 5 picks have been returned to their old organizations already, but as of this moment, it appears that Broderick is going to make the team.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Another veteran who looks tremendous: Alex Rodriguez, who seems to have found his groove, as Pete Caldera writes.

• The Cubs cut Carlos Silva in part because of what he said to reporters on Saturday, and what he said about pitching coach Mark Riggins, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes. And Mike Quade provided a small example of why players love him -- and why GM Jim Hendry chose him over other candidates, including Ryne Sandberg. From Gordon's story:
  • Silva, who was one of the worst performers in camp until his most recent start Wednesday, said the Cubs misled him about his status and criticized Riggins in particular for that, saying, ''He has to learn he's in the big leagues now.'' Riggins previously was the Cubs' minor-league pitching coordinator. Cubs officials, who say Silva was respectful in conversations with them, were livid about the hefty right-hander's public comments.
    ''First of all, he's dead f---ing wrong about my pitching coach. And I got no f---ing time for that,'' manager Mike Quade said. ''And second, respect is a two-way street, period. If you're not willing to give it, you're not getting it.

    ''And the third thing -- that everybody needs to know -- this was my call. If you want to be irritated with somebody, this is on me.''
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Some scouts who have been hovering around the Phillies this spring believe that Placido Polanco's elbow issue is going to be a problem that greatly impacts how many games the third baseman is going to play this year. But remember, it's a long season, and the Phillies are a team with resources. "Dave Montgomery (the Phillies' owner) has a lot invested in this team, and he'll give [Ruben] Amaro the latitude to go get help for that lineup," said a high-ranking executive with another club. "They'll make trades." Something else about the Phillies: Whether they blow through the regular season or barely scrape and claw their way into the playoffs, if, in fact, they survive to play in October, they'll still be a team nobody wants to play because of their rotation.
All of these injuries may make some fans fear this season, rather than look forward to it, writes Phil Sheridan.Meanwhile, the Phillies are taking a look at other relievers, in the aftermath of the Brad Lidge injury.

2. Jake Peavy is ready for extended spring, writes Daryl van Schouwen.

3. Grady Sizemore looked good in his most recent test.

4. Michael Cuddyer is ready to go, after being shut down early in spring training for wart surgery.

5. Jason Kendall suffered a setback.

6. Adam LaRoche will play hurt this year, with a shoulder tear.

7. The Mets have real concerns about Jason Isringhausen's elbow.

8. Pedro Feliciano is hurting, so the Yankees are making other plans, writes Ben Shpigel.

9. As expected, Andrew Bailey will start the year on the disabled list. It looks like he's a few weeks from being activated.

10. Brian Wilson will stay in Arizona, to continue the rehab of his oblique issue.

11. Mat Latos could start the year on the DL.

12. Julio Borbon was scratched with elbow tightness.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Astros added a left-handed bat. Houston will delay its roster moves until the last minute.
2. The Phillies optioned Josh Barfield.

3. The Brewers traded for Nyjer Morgan, but say that Carlos Gomez is still their starting center fielder.

4. Lorenzo Cain was sent to the minors by the Royals, which probably has something to do with how well Melky Cabrera has played this spring.

5. Nyjer Morgan's turbulent stay with Washington is over.

6. Brad Bergesen seems to be leading Chris Tillman as they compete for a rotation spot, writes Jeff Zrebiec.

7. Kenshin Kawakami could start the year in Class AA.

8. Mike Hampton has retired.

9. The lineup that Joe Maddon plans on using tonight will be close to what his Opening Day lineup will be, writes Marc Topkin.

10. Suddenly, the Rangers have a lot of things to debate, writes Randy Galloway. Alexi Ogando could now move into the Texas rotation.

11. The Marlins are not likely to go after Pedro Feliz for their third base job; rather, Florida could go with Donnie Murphy.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Unlikely roster spot for Almonte[/h3]
11:17AM ET

[h5]Milwaukee Brewers [/h5]


One of the feel-good stories of the spring could belong to 33-year-old Erick Almonte.

Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports that, barring a late trade or injury, Almonte claimed the Brewers' final reserve infield spot Sunday when Luis Cruz cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Nashville.

Almonte has played in just 39 major league games, and none since 2003 with the Yankees.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Finding a home for Kawakami[/h3]
11:03AM ET

[h5]Kenshin Kawakami | Braves [/h5]


The Atlanta Braves have been shopping Kenshin Kawakami for months, and the decision to re-assign the Japanese right-hander to minor league camp Sunday is a sign that nothing is close.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves are still hoping that they can trade Kawakami and find a team willing to pay a "respectable portion" of the $6.77 million he is owed this year.

In an updated story, Bowman says the Orioles and Pirates showed some interest in Kawakami over the winter. The greater interest has come from Japanese clubs, but Kawakami still wants to pitch in the United States.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Gomez still the starter in Milwaukee[/h3]
10:41AM ET

[h5]Carlos Gomez | Brewers [/h5]


Sunday's acquisition of Nyjer Morgan immediately called into question the Milwaukee Brewers' commitment to Carlos Gomez as their starting center fielder.

General manager Doug Melvin tells Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel that Gomez remains atop the depth chart. Morgan is viewed as injury insurance that became affordable once the Nationals dropped their asking price.

Gomez has yet to reach the potential predicting of him, posting a .246 batting average over four seasons, so his job his far from etched in stone. At the very least, Morgan's arrival is a warning that a slow start might not be tolerated.

The Brewers had eliminated one candidate to back up Gomez on Friday by trading Chris Dickerson to the New York Yankees for reliever Sergio Mitre.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Izzy on the bubble[/h3]
10:22AM ET

[h5]Jason Isringhausen | Mets [/h5]


The race for the final spot in the New York Mets' bullpen is down to veteran Jason Isringhausen and Blaine Boyer, and each helped their cause with a scoreless inning Sunday.

Isringhausen has said he'd retire rather than accept a minor league assignment, and that could be a sticking point.

Isringhausen, who has a history of elbow trouble, experienced some inflammation last week but insists he is feeling fine. David Waldstein of the New York Times reports the Mets are considering asking the reliever to stay in spring training for a week or two to build his arm strength, but Isringhausen said Sunday that he was not inclined to do that.

Isringhausen is on the bubble since Rule 5 draftee Pedro Beato is all but assured of a bullpen spot.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Getting by without Lidge[/h3]
10:01AM ET

[h5]Brad Lidge | Phillies [/h5]


The Philadelphia Phillies are holding their collective breath over the status of closer Brad Lidge, who will have an MRI Tuesday to determine if he has structural damage in his right shoulder.

Lidge will begin the season on the disabled list, with the question being how long he will be sidelined. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel would prefer that one of his two alternatives in the bullpen ? Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras -- took over the closing duties, rather than going with a dual attack. Madson is likely the favorite.

Madson has been stellar this spring and one assistant GM told Rumor Central's Jason A. Churchill this week that the reliever looked "pretty nasty at times," oo the Phillies should be fine until Lidge returns.

The Phillies could look outside the organization, but teams are generally reluctant to trade bullpen depth this early in the season.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Martinez leads in roster race[/h3]
9:38AM ET

[h5]Philadelphia Phillies [/h5]


The Philadelphia Phillies have two bench jobs open on their roster and the inside track for one of them belongs to Michael Martinez, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

With Josh Barfield sent to the minors and Chase Utley scheduled to open the season on the disabled list, the competition includes Martinez, Luis Castillo, Pete Orr and Delwyn Young.

Zolecki notes that manager Charlie Manuel has strong praise for Martinez' defense in both the infield and outfield.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Winn looking for a contender?[/h3]
9:24AM ET

[h5]Randy Winn | Orioles [/h5]


Veteran outfielder Randy Winn is back on the free agent market after being released Monday morning by the Orioles, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun.

Winn's options may be limited, but the 36-year-old could be tempted to look for a playoff contender. Winn has played in 1,717 games and has never appeared in a postseason contest, the longest streak among active players.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Final roster spot in Cincinnati[/h3]
9:10AM ET

[h5]Cincinnati Reds [/h5]


The final spot on the Cincinnati Reds' roster is down to Fred Lewis or Juan Francisco for a backup outfield berth, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Lewis and Francisco are both left-handed hitters, but Francisco may have the edge because he also can play third base. Lewis, who is dealing with a sore side, started slowly but has hits in six of his last eight games.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Heilman back to the bullpen?[/h3]
8:38AM ET

[h5]Aaron Heilman | Diamondbacks [/h5]


As recently as Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks appeared to be leaning toward Aaron Heilman as their fifth starter over Armando Galarraga.

Heilman could have locked down the job with a solid outing Sunday, but Bob McManaman reports the job is still open after Heilman allowed eight runs in two innings against the Cincinnati Reds.

After a strong start, Heilman has been in a rut lately, allowing 19 earned runs in his last five outings. Heilman has plenty of bullpen experience and has been an effective reliever, a fact that could work against him.

Galarraga has made just nine relief appearances and would be better suited for a starting role.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Evans' roster spot in jeopardy[/h3]
8:20AM ET

[h5]Nick Evans | Mets [/h5]


Nick Evans has spent parts of the last three seasons with the New York Mets. Sticking around for a fourth season looks like a sticky proposition.

Manager Terry Collins told veteran Willie Harris Sunday that he had earned a roster spot, and the odd man out could be Evans, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

With Daniel Murphy a strong candidate to earn the final spot on the bench, Evans faces a likely trip to the waiver wire. Evans is out of options, making him a likely candidate to be claimed. The first baseman/outfielder could end up on the roster if Carlos Beltran begins the season on the disabled list, but that would be a temporary reprieve.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Finding a fit for Feliz[/h3]
8:05AM ET

[h5]Pedro Feliz | Royals [/h5]


Realizing he was not a fit in Kansas City, veteran third baseman Pedro Feliz asked for and was granted his release from the Royals Sunday night.

Feliz saw little time in camp as Mike Aviles solidified his job as the regular third baseman and Wilson Betemit emerged as the backup.

The Florida Marlins have been mentioned as a possible destination for Feliz while the Fish wait for Matt Dominguez to develop, but Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel says a deal for Feliz is unlikely.

Could Feliz end up back in Philadelphia, where played in 2008 and 2009? The Phillies are auditioning Luis Castillo, but could move Placido Polanco to second if that doesn't pan out. Feliz did not hit well enough for the Phillies' liking, but they may have to settle for less due to Chase Utley's injury.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Twins in no rush to deal Slowey[/h3]
7:43AM ET

[h5]Kevin Slowey | Twins [/h5]


After months of uncertainty, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire answered his rotation questions last week, naming Scott Baker as his fifth starter and moving Kevin Slowey to the bullpen.

While Slowey's name will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors, the Twins are in no rush to trade him, reports Nick Cafardo in Sunday?s Boston Globe. One scout tells Cafardo: "He's throwing too well for them to deal him."

La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune notes that the Twins used nine different starters last season, so there is plenty of incentive to keep the right-hander around as insurance.

Colorado and Toronto have been mentioned as possible destinations for Slowey in recent weeks. The Rockies, however, are now more comfortable using Esmil Rogers as their fifth starter in place of the injured Aaron Cook.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Who closes in Minnesota?[/h3]
7:29AM ET

[h5]Joe Nathan | Twins [/h5]


The Minnesota Twins appear to be leaning toward using Joe Nathan as the closer to start the season, as tweeted by Phil Mackey of ESPN 1500.

But with Nathan's struggles this spring having had elbow surgery last year, Matt Capps' presence is sure to be an important one, and it wouldn't surprise us if Capps got some save chances early, too, or simply takes over the job until Nathan gets right.

Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com sees manager Ron Gardenhire using a combination of Nathan and Capps until Nathan proves he's fully recovered from the surgery.

Nathan's slider has yet to come back all the way and it may take some time, just as it did with left-hander Francisco Liriano.

Fantasy owners may want to double or triple up for saves if Nathan or Capps is on your roster, since there are no guarantees that either ones gets 40-plus save opportunities.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Impact of Bailey injury[/h3]
7:21AM ET

[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]


Andrew Bailey made a visit to renowned orthopedic surgeon James Andrews earlier this month, and an exam on his right forearm did not reveal anything serious. The injury, however, is believed to be significant enough to put the Oakland closer on the disabled list to start the season.

Bailey, a two-time All-Star who has a history of elbow trouble, had 25 saves last year.

The A's may be better equipped to withstand losing their closer than other teams because of the acquisition of left-hander Brian Fuentes and right-hander Grant Balfour But bullpen depth was a main reason for the club?s optimism, so a serious injury to Bailey would have a major impact.

If Fuentes takes over as closer, that would likely elevate http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6365Craig Breslow to the role of lefty set-up man.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Reyes the final piece?[/h3]
7:01AM ET

[h5]Dennys Reyes | Red Sox [/h5]


Dennys Reyes signed a big-league deal with the Boston Red Sox Saturday and was placed on the 40-man roster, pretty much cementing his place on the roster -- though manager Terry Francona stops short of such an declaration.

With Reyes in the fold, the club has one spot left with three arms vying for the role. Left-hander Hideki Okajima and right-handers Alfredo Aceves and Matt Albers continue to battle for the job, but Albers may have the advantage because he is out of options and each of his two fellow competitors have options remaining.

It would seem that Okajima is in line to be the lead lefty in the bullpen -- he has served in the role before for the Sox -- which leaves Albers and Aceves out in the cold.


Piece on the D'Backs.

Spoiler [+]
By all measures, the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks were an utter disaster. They finished with a record of 65-97, the third-worst in all of baseball. Manager A.J. Hinch got fired midway through the season, and general manager Josh Byrnes also got the ax, even with five years remaining on his contract.

And while changes were clearly necessary from a public relations standpoint, a bounce-back season in 2011 probably would have happened whether new manager Kirk Gibson and new GM Kevin Towers came on the scene or not. Even below-average luck in Arizona's bullpen should pull the team within hailing distance of .500, and it is easy to see Arizona's path to a winning season ahead.

Let's start with the baseline. The Diamondbacks finished at 65-97, but their Pythagorean expected win-loss record was a slightly better 69-93, based on runs scored and runs allowed. But why was this mark so poor? Yes, Arizona ranked 15th in runs scored -- middle of the pack, though that is less impressive, given their hitter-friendly ballpark -- but the pitching, particularly the bullpen, performed at a shocking level of incompetence.

Last season, Arizona's bullpen ERA was 5.74. To put that into context, the Chicago Cubs ranked 29th in all of baseball in bullpen ERA -- and Chicago's mark was 4.72, more than a full run better than Arizona's. No team has put up a worse bullpen ERA since 2007, when the Tampa Bay Rays checked in at 6.16 and the Baltimore Orioles posted a mark of 5.75. And no National League bullpen posted a worse ERA than Arizona's 2010 unit did since well before bullpens were used as frequently as they are today. The Colorado Rockies, for reference, never produced a worse bullpen ERA during the height of pre-humidor Coors Field.

But while the ERA is historically unsightly, the components going into the ERA were merely garden-variety bad. Arizona's bullpen xFIP was 4.86 -- still worst in the league, but within hailing distance of the Detroit Tigers' 4.68 and Kansas City Royals' 4.55. Merely by replacing the ERAs of Arizona's returning relievers with their 2010 expected ERAs would knock 43 runs off of their runs allowed total from 2010, bringing their expected win-loss record to 73-89. That's an eight-win improvement over their actual record and four wins above their expected record -- without any changes whatsoever.

Of course, Arizona actually did make some changes as well (after all, it's hard to get fans excited over the winter with a dramatic news conference detailing how the team was unlucky). J.J. Putz stands as the biggest addition to the bullpen, and his 2.83 ERA in 54 innings last season was remarkably close to his xFIP of 2.87. Putz, if he throws the same number of innings in 2011, would be a dramatic improvement over the departed Blaine Boyer, who threw 57 innings with a 4.26 ERA in 2010 -- an xFIP of 4.60, one of the few Arizona pitchers to outperform expected ERA. That exchange alone slices another 10 runs off of Arizona's runs allowed, meaning their expected win-loss record improves to 74-88.

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Clearly, they'll need some other improvements. Daniel Hernandez (4.31 ERA in 79.1 innings in 2010), acquired this winter from Baltimore in the Mark Reynolds trade, will need to provide quality innings to replace those provided by Jordan Norberto (5.82 ERA in 20 innings), Cesar Valdez (7.65 ERA in 20 innings), Leo Rosales (7.16 ERA in 16.1 innings) and Bobby Howry (10.67 ERA in 14.1 innings). If Hernandez can repeat that 2010 performance while taking on that quartet's forgettable innings, it knocks another 26 runs off of Arizona's runs allowed, bringing their expected win-loss record to 77-85.

And while it is unreasonable to expect Daniel Hudson to put up the 1.69 ERA he managed in 11 starts after coming over in the Edwin Jackson trade last July, Hudson is projected to post an ERA of 3.56 in 2011, according to Dan Szymborski's ZiPS. Replace the combined totals of Edwin Jackson and Hudson from 2010 with that Hudson season, and another 20 runs come off Arizona's runs allowed, bringing their expected win-loss record to 79-83.

So while Kevin Towers stood pat with his pitching -- indeed, his big acquisition other than Putz was starter Zach Duke, a recent spring training casualty -- it will be his hitting that determines if Arizona will finish above or below that break-even mark. A full season from Miguel Montero would go a long way toward making that happen, with a healthy Russell Branyan likely assuring it. ZiPS also likes Justin Upton to significantly improve upon his 2010 campaign, though Kelly Johnson is a likely candidate to regress.

It won't matter, though: It is extremely unlikely that Arizona will suffer through the horrific performances -- and horrific luck -- that it did last season, particularly from the bullpen. Towers is smart enough to know he'd get credit for a turnaround the moment he entered his new office, even if the law of averages had a lot to do with it.
 
James Shields piece and other stuff.

Spoiler [+]
A.J. Burnett is a pivotal figure for the Yankees, as he comes back from his second-half collapse in 2010, and Josh Beckett could upgrade the Red Sox rotation if he rediscovers greatness. The Tampa Bay Rays have a similar dynamic within their rotation, a veteran pitcher trying to find himself after a miserable finish to last season.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6269048&story=6269044">http://sports.espn.go.com...269048&...idth=640,height=550,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6269044#">[+] Enlarge
ins_u_shields_300.jpg

Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireExpect James Shields to mix it up more.

James Shields allowed a league-high 34 homers last season, and in the second half, opposing hitters posted an .877 OPS against him, which means that the average hitter performed like Evan Longoria against him after the All-Star break.

The Rays' staff met with Shields at the outset of camp and among the discussion points was a conversation about pitch selection. Without being precise about what was said, Rays manager Joe Maddon explained on Monday evening that Shields was presented with information about his pitch selection -- how he got hit in certain counts while throwing certain pitches, a reflection, perhaps, of how predictable he had become.

Maddon has encouraged Shields to throw his curveball more, to widen a repertoire that has almost been built entirely on fastballs and changeups. Hitters almost always take first-pitch curveballs, so if Shields can throw get-ahead curveballs, Maddon said, he can create another layer of doubt in the hitters' minds -- "weird thoughts," is the way Maddon described it -- about what pitch Shields will throw next, about how the ball-strike count is turning against them.

Shields has also altered his mechanics slightly, and Maddon feels like he has not been overthrowing his fastball. "Our guy is young, he's healthy and he's experienced," said Maddon. "I really think he'll have a bounce-back year."

Shields's numbers in spring training this year: A 1.88 ERA in four starts, with two walks and seven strikeouts.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Oakland Athletics' advantage over most teams is the quality and the depth of their pitching, and while a lot of teams are currently scrambling to grab someone for the end of their rotation, the Athletics have a Tyson Ross quandary. The right-hander threw well this spring, allowing one run in 15.1 innings, and with most teams, that would be enough to make a rotation. But Oakland is already lined up and ready to go with Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Brandon McCarthy (who finished the spring with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio), and so now the Athletics must decide what to do with Ross -- return him to the minors, where he can prepare as the organization's de facto No. 6 starter, or keep him on the big-league staff and use him in a relief role until Andrew Bailey recovers from his forearm strain.
Ross appears ready for the big leagues.
• It has not been a good spring training for the Padres, who are looking for answers and instead will open the season without Mat Latos.

• Maddon is transparent on who will be his closer this year: He doesn't know, and he won't know, day to day, because it'll be all about the matchups for him, with his closer-by-committee approach. If he needs a Kyle Farnsworth or a Joel Peralta to get out of a seventh-inning or eighth-inning jam, he said, "I'm not going to hold anybody back. ... We're going to do [closer-by-committee] every night, so honestly I don't know."

• Evan Longoria says the AK-47 stolen from him is a personal item, and he declined to talk about it. Which is completely his prerogative.

Look, everybody has a view on gun control and I'm no different, but the next comment isn't about that: Going forward, for Longoria -- a high-profile baseball superstar -- there are probably better places to keep an AK-47 than in an apartment. For his sake. Maybe it'd be better to lock it up in a safe someplace, to be taken out for recreational use.

For the readers: What's your take on this?

• Wrote here yesterday about Rule 5 pick Brian Broderick and his quest to make the Nationals. He has been informed he's on the team, and he's pretty happy about it.

Mark Prior sat in the corner of the Yankees' clubhouse on Monday night, talking with reporters about the team's decision to have him remain in Florida to continue his comeback. Prior probably will throw in some extended spring games, then join the Yankees' Class A affiliate in Tampa, until the weather in the Northeast improves. And then Prior will probably move up to Class AA or Class AAA, later in April or in early May.

Prior was calm, circumspect as he spoke. He isn't pitching in the big leagues yet, but he views his work this spring as a success. He is throwing hard, with fastballs in the low-90s, and now he feels like he needs to improve on the quality of his breaking ball, which is coming along. And he needs to demonstrate for the Yankees that he can work on back-to-back days. "I think I'm major-league ready from a stuff standpoint," Prior said.

He was asked about what he thinks the chances are that he'll pitch in the big leagues this year, and Prior smiled slightly. He has learned, through his experience, to not count on anything, to not look ahead, to never assume. "I'm taking it day by day," Prior said. "Right now, I'm enjoying playing, having a good time."

Yankees manager Joe Girardi was more definitive. "I think he's got a pretty good shot, I do," he said.

• Dave Dombrowski, the GM of the Tigers, has watched Miguel Cabrera kill the ball in recent weeks, doing what he usually does. "He's ready to start the season," said Dombrowski.

And Dombrowski feels like Cabrera is in a good place, as he goes through treatment in the aftermath of his February arrest. "The program that has been put in place has a lot of support in place," he said. "Not only at the park, but away from the park. ... He's doing everything he can to work himself through it."
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Chad Billingsley agreed to a three-year extension, as Jim Peltz writes.
2. The Red Sox came into spring training intent on using Jacoby Ellsbury in the No. 9 spot in their lineup, but he has been impressive in camp -- so now it's a real possibility they could use him to lead off, at the top of what should be a dominant lineup.

3. The Rangers traded Matt Treanor to free up an extra bullpen spot, writes Anthony Andro. Texas has too many question marks, writes Jennifer Floyd Engel.

Alexi Ogando will start against a college team today.

4. The Royals wanted a defensive-minded catcher to work with their staff, writes Bob Dutton.

5. The Marlins had two roster spots open.

6. Donnie Murphy is in line to be the Opening Day third baseman for the Marlins.

7. Andrew Cashner's innings will be monitored, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.

8. The Mariners cut Josh Wilson, as Geoff Baker writes.

9. The Padres traded for an infielder.

10. Josh Fields was traded to the Rockies.

11. Fernando Salas had a good camp, but was told by the Cardinals that he's going to the minor leagues, as Rick Hummel writes.

12. The Rays returned a Rule 5 pick to the Red Sox.
[h3]The Battle for Jobs[/h3]
1. Brent Morel is ready to begin his work at third base for the White Sox.
2. Mark Trumbo hasn't locked up a job yet; Howie Kendrick might get a lot of the playing time at first base in the absence of Kendrys Morales.

3. Armando Galarraga will be in the Arizona rotation, rather than Aaron Heilman.

4. Gustavo Molina will be the Yankees' backup catcher. Jesus Montero didn't make it, as Mark Feinsand writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Justin Morneau says so far, so good.
2. Chase Utley has no timetable for his possible return, but is convinced he will play this year; he will bring a lot of questions north with him.

3. The Yankees seem optimistic that Curtis Granderson will be ready on Opening Day, but rain could impact his preparation today and Wednesday.

4. Alexei Ramirez has been hit by back spasms, but should be ready for Opening Day, his manager says.

5. Jose Valverde is OK now, but he was hurting in 2010, as Dave Birkett writes.

6. Jay Gibbons appears headed to the disabled list.

7. The Mets have asked Jason Isringhausen to stay in Florida.

8. Looks like Carlos Beltran could be ready for Opening Day.

9. Johnny Cueto began his throwing program, as John Fay writes.

10. Brian Wilson will probably not be ready for Opening Day, says Bruce Bochy.

11. Brian Matusz is OK.

12. The Red Sox have no injury worries at the moment, but Theo Epstein knocked on wood.

13. Shaun Marcum felt fine after his last outing. Good news for Milwaukee.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Mike Leake bounced back with a good outing.
2. Max Scherzer's last outing was a dud.

3. Matt Harrison was solid in his final exhibition start.

4. Ted Lilly was a little shaky.

5. The Giants beat Oakland.

6. Jake Fox annoyed both managers on Monday.

7. Carlos Carrasco looked strong.

8. Francisco Liriano's last tune-up went well.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Almonte, Reed close to roster spots[/h3]
9:20AM ET

[h5]Milwaukee Brewers [/h5]


One of the feel-good stories of the spring could belong to 33-year-old Erick Almonte.

Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reported Monday that, barring a late trade or injury, Almonte claimed the Brewers' final reserve infield spot Sunday when Luis Cruz cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Nashville.

Cruz, however, refused the assignment and is expected to sign a deal with the Texas Rangers.

Almonte has played in just 39 major league games, and none since 2003 with the Yankees.

In an updated story, Haudricourt says the final two roster spots will likely go to Almonte as well as Jeremy Reed, another veteran who has paid his minor league dues.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Beltran ready for Opening Day?[/h3]
9:13AM ET

[h5]Carlos Beltran | Mets [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-metsNew York Mets may not need those contingency plans in right field after all.

Carlos Beltran is scheduled to be used in Tuesday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals with the full intention of placing him on the Opening Day roster, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

Playing Beltran on Tuesday would be a sign of confidence in his health since the Mets would then lose the ability to backdate any trip to the disabled list. Beltran has played in just one Grapefruit League game this spring due to right knee tendinitis.

Scott Hairston or Willie Harris would likely play right field if Beltran isn't ready.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Wilson's replacement[/h3]
8:56AM ET

[h5]Brian Wilson | Giants [/h5]


The San Francisco Giants will likely open the season with Brian Wilson on the disabled list after the closer declared Monday night that his chances of overcoming a strained oblique muscle by Opening Day are "less than 50-50."

It may not be a lengthy stay for Wilson, whose Dl stint could be backdated to make him eligible by April 5.

Manager Bruce Bochy was undecided if he would designate a replacement closer or go with a committee. If Bochy goes with a single closer, Chris Haft of MLB.com says the most likely candidates are Santiago Casilla or Jeremy Affeldt. Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez could enter the mix if a committee approach is used.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]More 2B insurance in Philadelphia[/h3]
8:40AM ET

[h5]Kevin Frandsen | Padres [/h5]


With Chase Utley offering no specific timetable as to when he will return from chronic knee pain, the Philadelphia Phillies are looking for additional insurance at second base.

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweeted Monday that the Phillies have reached an agreement with Kevin Frandsen, who was released by the Padres last week. Frandsen was believed to be headed to the Diamondbacks, but that deal never came to fruition.

The Phillies are choosing between Wilson Valdez or Luis Castillo for the Opening Day assignment at second base.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The first base job in Arizona[/h3]
8:13AM ET

[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]


Russell Branyan was told last week he had earned a spot on the Diamondbacks roster, even if it remains uncertain how much playing time he will get at first base.

The last roster for a position player appears to be down to Juan Miranda and Brandon Allen, who have been competing with Branyan all spring. Steve Gilbert of MLB.com notes Miranda is out of options and the team would lean towards keeping him. Allen would then start at Triple-A Reno and be the first on the promotion list should Miranda or Xavier Nady falter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Gustavo makes his case [/h3]
7:54AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


Jesus Montero came to Yankees camp penciled in as the backup to catcher Russell Martin, but an unimpressive spring has left the job up for grabs.

With two days left before Opening Day, Gustavo Molina appears to have the inside track for the job and will head north with the team on Tuesday, reports Mark Feinsand of the Daily News. Manager Joe Girardi has indicated he would wait and see if any other catchers become available as teams make their final cuts.

In case you're wondering, Gustavo is not related to the other catching Molinas in the major leagues. He has 41 at-bats over parts of three major league seasons.

Montero is headed back to Triple-A Scranton, while Austin Romine, another catching prospect, will return to Double-A Trenton, giving both a chance to play every day.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Plenty of Triple-A time for Viciedo?[/h3]
7:24AM ET

[h5]Dayan Viciedo | White Sox [/h5]


Dayan Viciedo was showing the Chicago White Sox he could play right field at the major league level before fracturing his thumb on March 10.

Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com reports Viciedo is healing on schedule and is expected to play at Triple-A Charlotte once he returns to game shape.

The White Sox have plenty invested in Viciedo, who will make $1.25 million this season plus a portion of his $4 million signing bonus. Padilla cautions that if a starting spot isn't available at the major league level, indications are the White Sox will be content with Viciedo getting 400-plus at-bats at the minor league level.

Nothing is available right away. Carlos Quentin will be the starting right fielder while Lastings Milledge looks like the frontrunner for a bench role.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Evans' roster spot in jeopardy[/h3]
7:03AM ET

[h5]Nick Evans | Mets [/h5]


Nick Evans has spent parts of the last three seasons with the New York Mets. Sticking around for a fourth season looks like a sticky proposition.

Manager Terry Collins told veteran Willie Harris Sunday that he had earned a roster spot, and the odd man out could be Evans, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

With Daniel Murphy a strong candidate to earn the final spot on the bench, Evans faces a likely trip to the waiver wire. Evans is out of options, making him a likely candidate to be claimed. The first baseman/outfielder could end up on the roster if Carlos Beltran begins the season on the disabled list, but that would be a temporary reprieve.

The Mets announced that he will play Tuesday's Grapefruit League game Tuesday against Washington, which is a strong indication he will be ready for Opening Day and not need to go to the DL.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Billingsley nearing extension?[/h3]
7:00AM ET

[h5]Chad Billingsley | Dodgers [/h5]

The Los Angeles Dodgers are close to signing right-hander Chad Billingsley to a three-year contract extension worth more than $30 million, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
Nothing is official just yet, but such a pact buys out Billingsley's final year of arbitration and two years of free agency, which could set the tone for the club to get a multi-year deal done with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who will be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season.

Billingsley struggled at some points last season but getting a new deal could spark his confidence going forward.


VERY interesting piece on Billingsley's extension.

Spoiler [+]
Last night word leaked out that the Dodgers had reached a contract extension with Chad Billingsley, with the reported figures putting the deal somewhere in the range of $35 to $36 million for three years, with the contract not kicking in until next winter – he will still earn the $6.3 million salary in 2011 that was already agreed upon. The deal covers his final arbitration year and the first two years of free agency at an average rate of around $12 million per season.

Given what other pitchers with similar service time have been signing for of late, however, it looks to me that Billingsley may have left a lot of money on the table in order to sign this deal. While he might not have the reputation as one of the premier pitchers in the game, his arbiter-friendly numbers stack up well against some bigger name pitchers. In 4+ seasons, he’s thrown 826 innings, posted 59 wins, and has a 3.55 ERA.

Last winter, Felix Hernandez was at the same stage of his career. He was arbitration eligible for the second time, coming off an initial $3.8 million award in his first trip through the process – the same amount Billingsley received. He had thrown 905 innings in his career, posting 58 wins and a 3.45 ERA, eerily similar to what Billingsley had posted. He signed away his final two years of arbitration and his first three years of free agency for $78 million, an average of nearly $16 million per year, which is also the same contract that Justin Verlander got from the Tigers last winter. Verlander was arbitration eligible for the second time, coming off a $3.7 million award in his first trip through, and had career marks of 840 innings pitched, 65 wins, and a 3.92 ERA. He received barely more than Felix received, signing for $80 million over five years.

While it’s easy to scoff at a comparison between Felix and Billingsley, Verlander is actually a decent comparison, even by metrics that provide better information than wins and ERA. To start, Verlander was the same age when he signed his extension as Billingsley is now, so their numbers come from similar stages of development. They have nearly identical FIP and xFIPs as well, as Billingsley is at 3.68/4.05, while Verlander’s marks through 2009 put him at 3.80/4.15. Verlander’s marks are a little bit better since they came in the American League, but the difference is fairly minimal.

Now, Verlander’s 2009 season was significantly better than Billingsley’s 2010 – he threw an extra 50 innings and simply pitched better than Billingsley ever has, and I’m not saying that Billingsley is as good as Verlander. I’m simply noting that their statistical profiles at a similar stage of their careers are pretty similar, whether you look at traditional metrics (as the arbiter would) or whether you look at more advanced metrics. Billingsley’s agent could have made a pretty convincing argument that Verlander was a realistic comparison to work from, and even if all parties agreed that he should not get quite the same deal as the Tigers and Mariners handed out, the general framework for a pitcher at this level of service time and prior performance had been pretty well established.

Instead of getting 5/80, though, Billingsley settled for a contract that essentially pays him $43 million over four years once you factor in his 2011 salary that was agreed upon to avoid arbitration. That contract is essentially in line with what Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson received in their extensions at the same point of their careers – Greinke got 4/38 from the Royals before the 2009 season, while Johnson got 4/39 from the Marlins last winter. These seem to be the two deals that the Billingsley contract was actually built upon, but while both of them are certainly terrific pitchers, neither of them had the same resume that Billingsley came to the table with.

We’ll start with Johnson, since his deal also came last winter and is more recent. He was coming off a first year arbitration award of just $1.4 million, and he signed the deal with career numbers that included just 481 innings pitched, 34 wins, and a 3.40 ERA. He had pitched well in 2009, but had a history of arm problems and had spent nearly half of his Major League career on the disabled list.

Greinke was also coming off a first year arbitration award of $1.4 million, and while he’d thrown more innings than Johnson (659, to be exact), his career ERA was 4.28 and his W-L record was 34-45. He obviously went on to do quite well in the season immediately after he signed the extension, but that wasn’t in evidence when he agreed upon the deal. His track record to that point was rather inconsistent, and he didn’t have the quantity or quality of performance that Billingsley could point to in negotiations.

Perhaps most interesting, however, is the extension that Wandy Rodriguez signed with the Astros just a few months ago. Rodriguez was in his final year of arbitration, so he was at the point where Billingsley would have been at the end of the 2011 season – when his new deal actually kicks in. Rodriguez signed a 3 year, $34 million extension with the Astros covering the same years that Billingsley just gave up to get some security. His career numbers – 985 innings, 62 wins, and a 4.18 ERA.

If, this year, Billingsley threw 160 innings, posted a 7.43 ERA, and won just three games, he would end the year with those same career numbers. If Wandy Rodriguez’s deal set the market for what the final year of arbitration and first two years of free agency are worth, Billingsley essentially locked in a price that would be fair (based on career numbers) if he was the worst pitcher in baseball this year.

Perhaps he really wanted to stay in Los Angeles, and he had motivations beyond simply squeezing the Dodgers for every last penny he could get. Whatever the reasoning, though, it seems pretty clear that Billingsley left a lot of money on the table with this deal.

Piece on Brandon Allen from Arizona.

Spoiler [+]
Brandon Allen has done everything a prospect can do to prove he deserves a legitimate major league opportunity, but the Diamondbacks seem unwilling to give their young slugger an extended look. With the emergence of Juan Miranda as a potential starter and the news that Russell Branyan will make the opening day roster, Allen appears to be the odd man out at first base. Since the team signed Xavier Nady to an incentive-laden major league deal and is committed to giving Gerardo Parra another shot as a starter, Allen also finds himself on the outside looking in at a crowded outfield. Add in that he has options remaining and it becomes increasingly likely with each passing day that he will open the season back in the Diamondbacks farm system, a destination he has completely outgrown.

Over 688 Triple-A plate appearances since 2009, Allen has hit .277/.397/.541 with passable defense at both first base and left field. He’s young, cost-controlled, and clearly capable of producing at a high level, but for whatever reason the Snakes lack confidence in his abilities. Scouts have expressed concern about his swing, but anybody with those numbers at the highest level of minor league competition deserves serious major league consideration.

The decision to keep Branyan in lieu of Allen makes even less sense when context is introduced. Branyan is injury-prone, aging, and in no way a long-term solution for a team, let alone one in the Diamondbacks’ position. He also bats from the left side of the plate, so he does not gain an advantage over Allen by being able to properly platoon with Miranda. Even if he produces well, is it really that far-fetched to think that an Allen/Miranda combination couldn’t match his numbers?

The Bill James projections peg Allen for a .251/.338/.462 line — very similar to Branyan’s numbers last season — and suggest Miranda could hit somewhere around .288/.362/.511. If those seem overly optimistic, Marcel considers them both capable of hitting at a league average level. Branyan may be more of a known entity, but he does not project to hit substantially better than either of the aforementioned prospects.

The Diamondbacks are not a three-win first baseman away from seriously contending, and even if they were, Branyan is in no way a sure thing to reach that mark. An Allen-Miranda platoon — even though both players bat from the left side — could match the league average with the upside to exceed that mark. Plus, the team would be able to better assess its assets by seeing what they can do in a more meaningful environment. Allen shouldn’t need another .280/.410/.550 in Triple A to merit a legitimate opportunity.

By opting for Branyan, or Nady, instead of Allen, the Diamondbacks are blocking a young slugger for the chance to miss the playoffs by nine games instead of thirteen, neither of which represents a desirable finish. There is a big difference between signing studs guaranteed to produce at a high level that simultaneously roadblock youngsters and what the Diamondbacks have done here by signing short-term question marks.

If the Diamondbacks are so low on Allen, then why not try to trade him? Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently suggested that the Rays were exploring Allen’s value at the winter meetings and have been high on him in the past. Perhaps the Nationals could view Allen as a potential successor to Adam LaRoche, or as a fourth outfielder. The Athletics could certainly afford to give him a shot as well, as when a good number of fans cannot even name your starting first baseman, odds are you can improve at the position.

Plain and simple, Allen belongs in the major leagues in some capacity, and if the Diamondbacks are not going to give him the shot he deserves — and I’m not talking about 50 meaningless plate appearances in September — then it makes little sense to let such a talented and useful player rot in their system. If they view Miranda as the solution moving forward, that’s perfectly acceptable, but sending Allen back to the minors is not the course of action here.

Allen does not need any more seasoning. He needs a major league season under his belt, and if the Diamondbacks are not the team willing to give him that opportunity, I fully expect their phones to be ringing off the hook over the next couple of weeks with teams inquiring about his availability. This might not be a full-blown “Free _____
 
James Shields piece and other stuff.

Spoiler [+]
A.J. Burnett is a pivotal figure for the Yankees, as he comes back from his second-half collapse in 2010, and Josh Beckett could upgrade the Red Sox rotation if he rediscovers greatness. The Tampa Bay Rays have a similar dynamic within their rotation, a veteran pitcher trying to find himself after a miserable finish to last season.

http:///sports.espn.go.com/espn/gallery/enlargePhoto?id=6269048&story=6269044">http://sports.espn.go.com...269048&...idth=640,height=550,scrollbars=no,noresize'); return false;" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=6269044#">[+] Enlarge
ins_u_shields_300.jpg

Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireExpect James Shields to mix it up more.

James Shields allowed a league-high 34 homers last season, and in the second half, opposing hitters posted an .877 OPS against him, which means that the average hitter performed like Evan Longoria against him after the All-Star break.

The Rays' staff met with Shields at the outset of camp and among the discussion points was a conversation about pitch selection. Without being precise about what was said, Rays manager Joe Maddon explained on Monday evening that Shields was presented with information about his pitch selection -- how he got hit in certain counts while throwing certain pitches, a reflection, perhaps, of how predictable he had become.

Maddon has encouraged Shields to throw his curveball more, to widen a repertoire that has almost been built entirely on fastballs and changeups. Hitters almost always take first-pitch curveballs, so if Shields can throw get-ahead curveballs, Maddon said, he can create another layer of doubt in the hitters' minds -- "weird thoughts," is the way Maddon described it -- about what pitch Shields will throw next, about how the ball-strike count is turning against them.

Shields has also altered his mechanics slightly, and Maddon feels like he has not been overthrowing his fastball. "Our guy is young, he's healthy and he's experienced," said Maddon. "I really think he'll have a bounce-back year."

Shields's numbers in spring training this year: A 1.88 ERA in four starts, with two walks and seven strikeouts.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• The Oakland Athletics' advantage over most teams is the quality and the depth of their pitching, and while a lot of teams are currently scrambling to grab someone for the end of their rotation, the Athletics have a Tyson Ross quandary. The right-hander threw well this spring, allowing one run in 15.1 innings, and with most teams, that would be enough to make a rotation. But Oakland is already lined up and ready to go with Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Brandon McCarthy (who finished the spring with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio), and so now the Athletics must decide what to do with Ross -- return him to the minors, where he can prepare as the organization's de facto No. 6 starter, or keep him on the big-league staff and use him in a relief role until Andrew Bailey recovers from his forearm strain.
Ross appears ready for the big leagues.
• It has not been a good spring training for the Padres, who are looking for answers and instead will open the season without Mat Latos.

• Maddon is transparent on who will be his closer this year: He doesn't know, and he won't know, day to day, because it'll be all about the matchups for him, with his closer-by-committee approach. If he needs a Kyle Farnsworth or a Joel Peralta to get out of a seventh-inning or eighth-inning jam, he said, "I'm not going to hold anybody back. ... We're going to do [closer-by-committee] every night, so honestly I don't know."

• Evan Longoria says the AK-47 stolen from him is a personal item, and he declined to talk about it. Which is completely his prerogative.

Look, everybody has a view on gun control and I'm no different, but the next comment isn't about that: Going forward, for Longoria -- a high-profile baseball superstar -- there are probably better places to keep an AK-47 than in an apartment. For his sake. Maybe it'd be better to lock it up in a safe someplace, to be taken out for recreational use.

For the readers: What's your take on this?

• Wrote here yesterday about Rule 5 pick Brian Broderick and his quest to make the Nationals. He has been informed he's on the team, and he's pretty happy about it.

Mark Prior sat in the corner of the Yankees' clubhouse on Monday night, talking with reporters about the team's decision to have him remain in Florida to continue his comeback. Prior probably will throw in some extended spring games, then join the Yankees' Class A affiliate in Tampa, until the weather in the Northeast improves. And then Prior will probably move up to Class AA or Class AAA, later in April or in early May.

Prior was calm, circumspect as he spoke. He isn't pitching in the big leagues yet, but he views his work this spring as a success. He is throwing hard, with fastballs in the low-90s, and now he feels like he needs to improve on the quality of his breaking ball, which is coming along. And he needs to demonstrate for the Yankees that he can work on back-to-back days. "I think I'm major-league ready from a stuff standpoint," Prior said.

He was asked about what he thinks the chances are that he'll pitch in the big leagues this year, and Prior smiled slightly. He has learned, through his experience, to not count on anything, to not look ahead, to never assume. "I'm taking it day by day," Prior said. "Right now, I'm enjoying playing, having a good time."

Yankees manager Joe Girardi was more definitive. "I think he's got a pretty good shot, I do," he said.

• Dave Dombrowski, the GM of the Tigers, has watched Miguel Cabrera kill the ball in recent weeks, doing what he usually does. "He's ready to start the season," said Dombrowski.

And Dombrowski feels like Cabrera is in a good place, as he goes through treatment in the aftermath of his February arrest. "The program that has been put in place has a lot of support in place," he said. "Not only at the park, but away from the park. ... He's doing everything he can to work himself through it."
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Chad Billingsley agreed to a three-year extension, as Jim Peltz writes.
2. The Red Sox came into spring training intent on using Jacoby Ellsbury in the No. 9 spot in their lineup, but he has been impressive in camp -- so now it's a real possibility they could use him to lead off, at the top of what should be a dominant lineup.

3. The Rangers traded Matt Treanor to free up an extra bullpen spot, writes Anthony Andro. Texas has too many question marks, writes Jennifer Floyd Engel.

Alexi Ogando will start against a college team today.

4. The Royals wanted a defensive-minded catcher to work with their staff, writes Bob Dutton.

5. The Marlins had two roster spots open.

6. Donnie Murphy is in line to be the Opening Day third baseman for the Marlins.

7. Andrew Cashner's innings will be monitored, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.

8. The Mariners cut Josh Wilson, as Geoff Baker writes.

9. The Padres traded for an infielder.

10. Josh Fields was traded to the Rockies.

11. Fernando Salas had a good camp, but was told by the Cardinals that he's going to the minor leagues, as Rick Hummel writes.

12. The Rays returned a Rule 5 pick to the Red Sox.
[h3]The Battle for Jobs[/h3]
1. Brent Morel is ready to begin his work at third base for the White Sox.
2. Mark Trumbo hasn't locked up a job yet; Howie Kendrick might get a lot of the playing time at first base in the absence of Kendrys Morales.

3. Armando Galarraga will be in the Arizona rotation, rather than Aaron Heilman.

4. Gustavo Molina will be the Yankees' backup catcher. Jesus Montero didn't make it, as Mark Feinsand writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Justin Morneau says so far, so good.
2. Chase Utley has no timetable for his possible return, but is convinced he will play this year; he will bring a lot of questions north with him.

3. The Yankees seem optimistic that Curtis Granderson will be ready on Opening Day, but rain could impact his preparation today and Wednesday.

4. Alexei Ramirez has been hit by back spasms, but should be ready for Opening Day, his manager says.

5. Jose Valverde is OK now, but he was hurting in 2010, as Dave Birkett writes.

6. Jay Gibbons appears headed to the disabled list.

7. The Mets have asked Jason Isringhausen to stay in Florida.

8. Looks like Carlos Beltran could be ready for Opening Day.

9. Johnny Cueto began his throwing program, as John Fay writes.

10. Brian Wilson will probably not be ready for Opening Day, says Bruce Bochy.

11. Brian Matusz is OK.

12. The Red Sox have no injury worries at the moment, but Theo Epstein knocked on wood.

13. Shaun Marcum felt fine after his last outing. Good news for Milwaukee.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Mike Leake bounced back with a good outing.
2. Max Scherzer's last outing was a dud.

3. Matt Harrison was solid in his final exhibition start.

4. Ted Lilly was a little shaky.

5. The Giants beat Oakland.

6. Jake Fox annoyed both managers on Monday.

7. Carlos Carrasco looked strong.

8. Francisco Liriano's last tune-up went well.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Almonte, Reed close to roster spots[/h3]
9:20AM ET

[h5]Milwaukee Brewers [/h5]


One of the feel-good stories of the spring could belong to 33-year-old Erick Almonte.

Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reported Monday that, barring a late trade or injury, Almonte claimed the Brewers' final reserve infield spot Sunday when Luis Cruz cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Nashville.

Cruz, however, refused the assignment and is expected to sign a deal with the Texas Rangers.

Almonte has played in just 39 major league games, and none since 2003 with the Yankees.

In an updated story, Haudricourt says the final two roster spots will likely go to Almonte as well as Jeremy Reed, another veteran who has paid his minor league dues.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Beltran ready for Opening Day?[/h3]
9:13AM ET

[h5]Carlos Beltran | Mets [/h5]


The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-metsNew York Mets may not need those contingency plans in right field after all.

Carlos Beltran is scheduled to be used in Tuesday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals with the full intention of placing him on the Opening Day roster, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

Playing Beltran on Tuesday would be a sign of confidence in his health since the Mets would then lose the ability to backdate any trip to the disabled list. Beltran has played in just one Grapefruit League game this spring due to right knee tendinitis.

Scott Hairston or Willie Harris would likely play right field if Beltran isn't ready.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Wilson's replacement[/h3]
8:56AM ET

[h5]Brian Wilson | Giants [/h5]


The San Francisco Giants will likely open the season with Brian Wilson on the disabled list after the closer declared Monday night that his chances of overcoming a strained oblique muscle by Opening Day are "less than 50-50."

It may not be a lengthy stay for Wilson, whose Dl stint could be backdated to make him eligible by April 5.

Manager Bruce Bochy was undecided if he would designate a replacement closer or go with a committee. If Bochy goes with a single closer, Chris Haft of MLB.com says the most likely candidates are Santiago Casilla or Jeremy Affeldt. Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez could enter the mix if a committee approach is used.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]More 2B insurance in Philadelphia[/h3]
8:40AM ET

[h5]Kevin Frandsen | Padres [/h5]


With Chase Utley offering no specific timetable as to when he will return from chronic knee pain, the Philadelphia Phillies are looking for additional insurance at second base.

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweeted Monday that the Phillies have reached an agreement with Kevin Frandsen, who was released by the Padres last week. Frandsen was believed to be headed to the Diamondbacks, but that deal never came to fruition.

The Phillies are choosing between Wilson Valdez or Luis Castillo for the Opening Day assignment at second base.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]The first base job in Arizona[/h3]
8:13AM ET

[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]


Russell Branyan was told last week he had earned a spot on the Diamondbacks roster, even if it remains uncertain how much playing time he will get at first base.

The last roster for a position player appears to be down to Juan Miranda and Brandon Allen, who have been competing with Branyan all spring. Steve Gilbert of MLB.com notes Miranda is out of options and the team would lean towards keeping him. Allen would then start at Triple-A Reno and be the first on the promotion list should Miranda or Xavier Nady falter.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Gustavo makes his case [/h3]
7:54AM ET

[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]


Jesus Montero came to Yankees camp penciled in as the backup to catcher Russell Martin, but an unimpressive spring has left the job up for grabs.

With two days left before Opening Day, Gustavo Molina appears to have the inside track for the job and will head north with the team on Tuesday, reports Mark Feinsand of the Daily News. Manager Joe Girardi has indicated he would wait and see if any other catchers become available as teams make their final cuts.

In case you're wondering, Gustavo is not related to the other catching Molinas in the major leagues. He has 41 at-bats over parts of three major league seasons.

Montero is headed back to Triple-A Scranton, while Austin Romine, another catching prospect, will return to Double-A Trenton, giving both a chance to play every day.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Plenty of Triple-A time for Viciedo?[/h3]
7:24AM ET

[h5]Dayan Viciedo | White Sox [/h5]


Dayan Viciedo was showing the Chicago White Sox he could play right field at the major league level before fracturing his thumb on March 10.

Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com reports Viciedo is healing on schedule and is expected to play at Triple-A Charlotte once he returns to game shape.

The White Sox have plenty invested in Viciedo, who will make $1.25 million this season plus a portion of his $4 million signing bonus. Padilla cautions that if a starting spot isn't available at the major league level, indications are the White Sox will be content with Viciedo getting 400-plus at-bats at the minor league level.

Nothing is available right away. Carlos Quentin will be the starting right fielder while Lastings Milledge looks like the frontrunner for a bench role.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Evans' roster spot in jeopardy[/h3]
7:03AM ET

[h5]Nick Evans | Mets [/h5]


Nick Evans has spent parts of the last three seasons with the New York Mets. Sticking around for a fourth season looks like a sticky proposition.

Manager Terry Collins told veteran Willie Harris Sunday that he had earned a roster spot, and the odd man out could be Evans, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.

With Daniel Murphy a strong candidate to earn the final spot on the bench, Evans faces a likely trip to the waiver wire. Evans is out of options, making him a likely candidate to be claimed. The first baseman/outfielder could end up on the roster if Carlos Beltran begins the season on the disabled list, but that would be a temporary reprieve.

The Mets announced that he will play Tuesday's Grapefruit League game Tuesday against Washington, which is a strong indication he will be ready for Opening Day and not need to go to the DL.

- Doug Mittler

http://[h3]Billingsley nearing extension?[/h3]
7:00AM ET

[h5]Chad Billingsley | Dodgers [/h5]

The Los Angeles Dodgers are close to signing right-hander Chad Billingsley to a three-year contract extension worth more than $30 million, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
Nothing is official just yet, but such a pact buys out Billingsley's final year of arbitration and two years of free agency, which could set the tone for the club to get a multi-year deal done with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who will be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season.

Billingsley struggled at some points last season but getting a new deal could spark his confidence going forward.


VERY interesting piece on Billingsley's extension.

Spoiler [+]
Last night word leaked out that the Dodgers had reached a contract extension with Chad Billingsley, with the reported figures putting the deal somewhere in the range of $35 to $36 million for three years, with the contract not kicking in until next winter – he will still earn the $6.3 million salary in 2011 that was already agreed upon. The deal covers his final arbitration year and the first two years of free agency at an average rate of around $12 million per season.

Given what other pitchers with similar service time have been signing for of late, however, it looks to me that Billingsley may have left a lot of money on the table in order to sign this deal. While he might not have the reputation as one of the premier pitchers in the game, his arbiter-friendly numbers stack up well against some bigger name pitchers. In 4+ seasons, he’s thrown 826 innings, posted 59 wins, and has a 3.55 ERA.

Last winter, Felix Hernandez was at the same stage of his career. He was arbitration eligible for the second time, coming off an initial $3.8 million award in his first trip through the process – the same amount Billingsley received. He had thrown 905 innings in his career, posting 58 wins and a 3.45 ERA, eerily similar to what Billingsley had posted. He signed away his final two years of arbitration and his first three years of free agency for $78 million, an average of nearly $16 million per year, which is also the same contract that Justin Verlander got from the Tigers last winter. Verlander was arbitration eligible for the second time, coming off a $3.7 million award in his first trip through, and had career marks of 840 innings pitched, 65 wins, and a 3.92 ERA. He received barely more than Felix received, signing for $80 million over five years.

While it’s easy to scoff at a comparison between Felix and Billingsley, Verlander is actually a decent comparison, even by metrics that provide better information than wins and ERA. To start, Verlander was the same age when he signed his extension as Billingsley is now, so their numbers come from similar stages of development. They have nearly identical FIP and xFIPs as well, as Billingsley is at 3.68/4.05, while Verlander’s marks through 2009 put him at 3.80/4.15. Verlander’s marks are a little bit better since they came in the American League, but the difference is fairly minimal.

Now, Verlander’s 2009 season was significantly better than Billingsley’s 2010 – he threw an extra 50 innings and simply pitched better than Billingsley ever has, and I’m not saying that Billingsley is as good as Verlander. I’m simply noting that their statistical profiles at a similar stage of their careers are pretty similar, whether you look at traditional metrics (as the arbiter would) or whether you look at more advanced metrics. Billingsley’s agent could have made a pretty convincing argument that Verlander was a realistic comparison to work from, and even if all parties agreed that he should not get quite the same deal as the Tigers and Mariners handed out, the general framework for a pitcher at this level of service time and prior performance had been pretty well established.

Instead of getting 5/80, though, Billingsley settled for a contract that essentially pays him $43 million over four years once you factor in his 2011 salary that was agreed upon to avoid arbitration. That contract is essentially in line with what Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson received in their extensions at the same point of their careers – Greinke got 4/38 from the Royals before the 2009 season, while Johnson got 4/39 from the Marlins last winter. These seem to be the two deals that the Billingsley contract was actually built upon, but while both of them are certainly terrific pitchers, neither of them had the same resume that Billingsley came to the table with.

We’ll start with Johnson, since his deal also came last winter and is more recent. He was coming off a first year arbitration award of just $1.4 million, and he signed the deal with career numbers that included just 481 innings pitched, 34 wins, and a 3.40 ERA. He had pitched well in 2009, but had a history of arm problems and had spent nearly half of his Major League career on the disabled list.

Greinke was also coming off a first year arbitration award of $1.4 million, and while he’d thrown more innings than Johnson (659, to be exact), his career ERA was 4.28 and his W-L record was 34-45. He obviously went on to do quite well in the season immediately after he signed the extension, but that wasn’t in evidence when he agreed upon the deal. His track record to that point was rather inconsistent, and he didn’t have the quantity or quality of performance that Billingsley could point to in negotiations.

Perhaps most interesting, however, is the extension that Wandy Rodriguez signed with the Astros just a few months ago. Rodriguez was in his final year of arbitration, so he was at the point where Billingsley would have been at the end of the 2011 season – when his new deal actually kicks in. Rodriguez signed a 3 year, $34 million extension with the Astros covering the same years that Billingsley just gave up to get some security. His career numbers – 985 innings, 62 wins, and a 4.18 ERA.

If, this year, Billingsley threw 160 innings, posted a 7.43 ERA, and won just three games, he would end the year with those same career numbers. If Wandy Rodriguez’s deal set the market for what the final year of arbitration and first two years of free agency are worth, Billingsley essentially locked in a price that would be fair (based on career numbers) if he was the worst pitcher in baseball this year.

Perhaps he really wanted to stay in Los Angeles, and he had motivations beyond simply squeezing the Dodgers for every last penny he could get. Whatever the reasoning, though, it seems pretty clear that Billingsley left a lot of money on the table with this deal.

Piece on Brandon Allen from Arizona.

Spoiler [+]
Brandon Allen has done everything a prospect can do to prove he deserves a legitimate major league opportunity, but the Diamondbacks seem unwilling to give their young slugger an extended look. With the emergence of Juan Miranda as a potential starter and the news that Russell Branyan will make the opening day roster, Allen appears to be the odd man out at first base. Since the team signed Xavier Nady to an incentive-laden major league deal and is committed to giving Gerardo Parra another shot as a starter, Allen also finds himself on the outside looking in at a crowded outfield. Add in that he has options remaining and it becomes increasingly likely with each passing day that he will open the season back in the Diamondbacks farm system, a destination he has completely outgrown.

Over 688 Triple-A plate appearances since 2009, Allen has hit .277/.397/.541 with passable defense at both first base and left field. He’s young, cost-controlled, and clearly capable of producing at a high level, but for whatever reason the Snakes lack confidence in his abilities. Scouts have expressed concern about his swing, but anybody with those numbers at the highest level of minor league competition deserves serious major league consideration.

The decision to keep Branyan in lieu of Allen makes even less sense when context is introduced. Branyan is injury-prone, aging, and in no way a long-term solution for a team, let alone one in the Diamondbacks’ position. He also bats from the left side of the plate, so he does not gain an advantage over Allen by being able to properly platoon with Miranda. Even if he produces well, is it really that far-fetched to think that an Allen/Miranda combination couldn’t match his numbers?

The Bill James projections peg Allen for a .251/.338/.462 line — very similar to Branyan’s numbers last season — and suggest Miranda could hit somewhere around .288/.362/.511. If those seem overly optimistic, Marcel considers them both capable of hitting at a league average level. Branyan may be more of a known entity, but he does not project to hit substantially better than either of the aforementioned prospects.

The Diamondbacks are not a three-win first baseman away from seriously contending, and even if they were, Branyan is in no way a sure thing to reach that mark. An Allen-Miranda platoon — even though both players bat from the left side — could match the league average with the upside to exceed that mark. Plus, the team would be able to better assess its assets by seeing what they can do in a more meaningful environment. Allen shouldn’t need another .280/.410/.550 in Triple A to merit a legitimate opportunity.

By opting for Branyan, or Nady, instead of Allen, the Diamondbacks are blocking a young slugger for the chance to miss the playoffs by nine games instead of thirteen, neither of which represents a desirable finish. There is a big difference between signing studs guaranteed to produce at a high level that simultaneously roadblock youngsters and what the Diamondbacks have done here by signing short-term question marks.

If the Diamondbacks are so low on Allen, then why not try to trade him? Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic recently suggested that the Rays were exploring Allen’s value at the winter meetings and have been high on him in the past. Perhaps the Nationals could view Allen as a potential successor to Adam LaRoche, or as a fourth outfielder. The Athletics could certainly afford to give him a shot as well, as when a good number of fans cannot even name your starting first baseman, odds are you can improve at the position.

Plain and simple, Allen belongs in the major leagues in some capacity, and if the Diamondbacks are not going to give him the shot he deserves — and I’m not talking about 50 meaningless plate appearances in September — then it makes little sense to let such a talented and useful player rot in their system. If they view Miranda as the solution moving forward, that’s perfectly acceptable, but sending Allen back to the minors is not the course of action here.

Allen does not need any more seasoning. He needs a major league season under his belt, and if the Diamondbacks are not the team willing to give him that opportunity, I fully expect their phones to be ringing off the hook over the next couple of weeks with teams inquiring about his availability. This might not be a full-blown “Free _____
 
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