2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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When it's said in done Votto will be wearing a Dodgers uniform, mark my words.
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When it's said in done Votto will be wearing a Dodgers uniform, mark my words.
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You guys believe you're entitled to everyone though.Originally Posted by Proshares
What? He'll be a Yankee. Tex to 3rd, A-Rod DH and Votto 1B. Duh.
Spoiler [+]I kid you not, I heard that on the radio today
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You guys believe you're entitled to everyone though.Originally Posted by Proshares
What? He'll be a Yankee. Tex to 3rd, A-Rod DH and Votto 1B. Duh.
Spoiler [+]I kid you not, I heard that on the radio today
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Yep.
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Yep.
jumpmanfromdabay
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No he won't. Mark My Words
jumpmanfromdabay
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No he won't. Mark My Words
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40 of the 60 Seattle Spring Training invitees have had less than one year of big league experience.
Coo.
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40 of the 60 Seattle Spring Training invitees have had less than one year of big league experience.
Coo.
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ill just leave this here
Miggy lookin beastly
Miggy lookin beastly
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ill just leave this here
Miggy lookin beastly
Miggy lookin beastly
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JumpmanFromDaBay wrote:
No he won't. Mark My Words
Miggy looks like he's going to shut a lot of clowns up
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JumpmanFromDaBay wrote:
No he won't. Mark My Words
Miggy looks like he's going to shut a lot of clowns up
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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what happened with cespedes?
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
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what happened with cespedes?
Miguel Cabrera's hot corner debate.
The myth of the steady rise.
Comparing the Pujols and Fielder deals.
The shifting landscape in baseball.
• The bottom line in baseball: Big TV money buys big stars, writes Bill Lubinger.
• Prince Fielder doesn't let his emotions get the best of him anymore, writes Carlos Monarrez. Nolan Ryan says the Tigers are a force to be dealt with.
Little Leaguers recall an intimidating Prince Fielder at age 9.
• The great debate about Miguel Cabrera has begun, writes Bob Wojnowski.
• Dodgers fans should be careful what they wish for with the incoming owner, writes T.J. Simers.
I'm not sure I agree with T.J. If the next owner has the money to win the bidding that may well be close to $2 billion -- and word is that the leading bidders are built mostly on one big-money guy -- that can't be anything but an improvement over the current situation. There's nowhere to go but up.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Twins' 2011 payroll could be an aberration, says the owner.
2. Dealing away Jesus Montero could prove costly for the Yankees in the long run, writes Joel Sherman.
3. Josh Willingham is ready to play right field for the Twins.
4. Hal McCoy grades Walt Jocketty on his offseason moves.
5. The Cardinals are in the running for Roy Oswalt. The Rangers are scheduled to meet with him Monday.
Texas' interest, of course, is rooted in Oswalt's past relationship with Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux from their days with the Houston Astros.
6. Matt Harrison is focused on staying in the rotation. As I've written here before: Harrison is among the most underrated starters in the AL. He had a 3.80 ERA pitching in one of the toughest home parks (for pitchers) in the majors and a 2.99 ERA on the road.
7. The Rockies might install a humidor for their Triple-A team.
8. Edwin Jackson is trying to decide whether to sign with the Orioles. The upside: Baltimore may well have offered the most money. The downside: It would be tough sledding in the next few years for Jackson, pitching in a small ballpark for a team that hasn't had a winning record in a long time.
9. The Rays have pitching to deal.
Spoiler [+]
During the past couple of days, some rival executives have debated whether the Detroit Tigers are serious about playing Miguel Cabrera at third base, or if this is just early lip service until they get to spring training and Jim Leyland gets a chance to sit down with the slugger to tell him it's not happening.
"There's no way they go with that," said one highly ranked NL exec. "It can't work."
But Leyland has flatly insisted that Cabrera can be his third baseman. He did so on "Mike & Mike" on Friday morning, and later talked to Tom Gage of the Detroit News. From Tom's story:
We'll see.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Roy Oswalt is expected to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals soon, as Gordon Edes writes. That means that St. Louis has six starters for five spots, assuming that Oswalt joins Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse. At the winter meetings, the Cardinals talked to other teams about Westbrook and Lohse; if you recall, Lohse has a no-trade clause and has indicated he has no intention of moving.
• Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he'd like a deal with Josh Hamilton by the start of the season. It figures to be difficult to reach an agreement, because Hamilton's side has visions of the huge free-agent payouts to Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder dancing in their heads, and the Rangers will aim for a much more conservative deal. If Hamilton sticks to what he said recently -- that he won't give the Rangers a hometown discount -- he is destined for free agency. (And you can bet he would be an interesting target for the Los Angeles Dodgers next fall, as a complement to Matt Kemp.)
• Mark Cuban and Dennis Gilbert are out of the bidding for the Dodgers. I've written here before: It's not clear from his actions whether Cuban is burning to own a baseball team. He talks about his interest when asked and seems to flirt a lot with the idea.
If Frank McCourt hadn't taken the Dodgers into bankruptcy and wrested control of the sale process away from Major League Baseball, Gilbert and his group may have been regarded as the leading contenders to buy the team, because of his relationship with the commissioner and Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
• Fielder has by far the latest signing date of any big-money free agent. The signing dates for the players who got nine-figure contracts, before Fielder signed this week:
Carlos Beltran: Jan. 13, 2005
Mark Teixeira: Jan. 6, 2009
Matt Holliday: Jan. 5, 2010
Fielder is on a fast track to put up some big numbers, writes John Lowe.
Another evaluator on Fielder: "This is someone who really loves baseball. He really loves to play. You'll never have to fight him to get him on the field."
• The Dodgers are anticipating good things from Dee Gordon, who has worked out extensively with Barry Larkin and Juan Castro this winter, after finishing very strongly last season. Check out his game log from 2011, day-by-day.
• The Washington Nationals believe that Chien-Ming Wang could be a help at the end of their rotation after coming back late last season and improving start to start. He didn't walk anyone in his last four outings, a sign of his progress from shoulder surgery.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Bud Selig reiterated what has been reported for many weeks: MLB wants and expects the expanded playoff format for this year. And as reported here, baseball is leaning toward a one-game playoff to determine division champions, rather than basing that on head-to-head results.
2. The Boston Red Sox signed John Maine.
3. The New York Mets signed an infielder.
4. Ryan Theriot joined a former teammate with the San Francisco Giants. From Henry Schulman's story:
6. White Sox GM Kenny Williams was booed at the team's fanfest event.
7. The Houston Astros are taking a flier on Zach Duke.
8. The Tampa Bay Rays announced the signing of Jeff Keppinger. They beat out the New York Yankees, among other teams.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]
Q: I disagree with your opinion that Alex Rodriguez's contract hindered Texas' ability to construct its roster from '01 to '03. He averaged 9 WAR per year and was worth the money he was paid. Throughout this period the Rangers had a payroll that ranked in the top 10 in baseball. The fact is they had plenty of money to spend but failed to build a successful team around their superstar shortstop. Chan Ho Park didn't work out, nor did Juan Gonzalez. I would love to read the reasons why you feel the way you do, as this is the second or third time in the past week that you have referenced his contract in such light. Was he not good enough? Was it just far too much money? I clearly see why teams have an apprehension throwing that much money at one player, and I'm relieved the Mariners didn't sign Prince, yet A-Rod should be looked at as an example of a player being paid what he was worth. The blame rests with their front office and the players who didn't produce.
Paul Larsgaard
Bellingham, Wash.
A: Paul -- thanks for your email. Folks who have worked for the Rangers during the last decade strongly believe that devoting such a high percentage of their payroll to one player -- no matter how well he played -- constricted the way they constructed the rest of the team. It's not just me; the people making the decisions came to believe that. And in recent years, you've seen teams steer away from situations in which they devote more than 15 percent (or so) of their payroll to one guy. Joe Mauer is one exception …
"There's no way they go with that," said one highly ranked NL exec. "It can't work."
But Leyland has flatly insisted that Cabrera can be his third baseman. He did so on "Mike & Mike" on Friday morning, and later talked to Tom Gage of the Detroit News. From Tom's story:
- If Cabrera has merely agreed, he's taking one for the team. Whenever something goes wrong, in that case, he could resent the switch. Or begin to resent it.
- But if Cabrera really wants to move back to his former position, he'll fight through any obstacles.
- On Friday, after a rough drive to his home outside Pittsburgh, manager Jim Leyland left no doubt about Cabrera's willingness to switch.
- "I think he wants to show the world he can play third base," Leyland said. "I don't think this is going to be bad. He told me he wants to play there."
- Enough said?
- The Tigers would not have signed Fielder without Cabrera's willingness to switch. They also would not have signed him without being convinced Cabrera's willingness was real.
- Here's more:
- [A]nd it won't require a body makeover for him to do it. The Tigers won't ask him to lose a lot of weight.
- "Everybody is all hung up on what he looks like and the fact he's heavy," Leyland said. "Sure, I want him to lose a little bit of weight, but I'll tell you what, not too much.
- "When you get conscious of your weight, you can lose strength along with weight. You can lose some self-confidence, too, and maybe you don't perform as well. That's no good."
We'll see.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Roy Oswalt is expected to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals soon, as Gordon Edes writes. That means that St. Louis has six starters for five spots, assuming that Oswalt joins Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse. At the winter meetings, the Cardinals talked to other teams about Westbrook and Lohse; if you recall, Lohse has a no-trade clause and has indicated he has no intention of moving.
• Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he'd like a deal with Josh Hamilton by the start of the season. It figures to be difficult to reach an agreement, because Hamilton's side has visions of the huge free-agent payouts to Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder dancing in their heads, and the Rangers will aim for a much more conservative deal. If Hamilton sticks to what he said recently -- that he won't give the Rangers a hometown discount -- he is destined for free agency. (And you can bet he would be an interesting target for the Los Angeles Dodgers next fall, as a complement to Matt Kemp.)
• Mark Cuban and Dennis Gilbert are out of the bidding for the Dodgers. I've written here before: It's not clear from his actions whether Cuban is burning to own a baseball team. He talks about his interest when asked and seems to flirt a lot with the idea.
If Frank McCourt hadn't taken the Dodgers into bankruptcy and wrested control of the sale process away from Major League Baseball, Gilbert and his group may have been regarded as the leading contenders to buy the team, because of his relationship with the commissioner and Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
• Fielder has by far the latest signing date of any big-money free agent. The signing dates for the players who got nine-figure contracts, before Fielder signed this week:
Carlos Beltran: Jan. 13, 2005
Mark Teixeira: Jan. 6, 2009
Matt Holliday: Jan. 5, 2010
Fielder is on a fast track to put up some big numbers, writes John Lowe.
Another evaluator on Fielder: "This is someone who really loves baseball. He really loves to play. You'll never have to fight him to get him on the field."
• The Dodgers are anticipating good things from Dee Gordon, who has worked out extensively with Barry Larkin and Juan Castro this winter, after finishing very strongly last season. Check out his game log from 2011, day-by-day.
• The Washington Nationals believe that Chien-Ming Wang could be a help at the end of their rotation after coming back late last season and improving start to start. He didn't walk anyone in his last four outings, a sign of his progress from shoulder surgery.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Bud Selig reiterated what has been reported for many weeks: MLB wants and expects the expanded playoff format for this year. And as reported here, baseball is leaning toward a one-game playoff to determine division champions, rather than basing that on head-to-head results.
2. The Boston Red Sox signed John Maine.
3. The New York Mets signed an infielder.
4. Ryan Theriot joined a former teammate with the San Francisco Giants. From Henry Schulman's story:
- [Bruce] Bochy reiterated that Crawford, the Giants' best defensive infielder, will go to camp next month as the starting shortstop, and that is the plan for the season.
- However, the Giants feel more comfortable having a shortstop who hits right-handed on the bench to face tough left-handed pitchers. Crawford was 4-for-30 against them as a rookie. Theriot is a .301 career hitter against lefties, .310 last year with St. Louis.
6. White Sox GM Kenny Williams was booed at the team's fanfest event.
7. The Houston Astros are taking a flier on Zach Duke.
8. The Tampa Bay Rays announced the signing of Jeff Keppinger. They beat out the New York Yankees, among other teams.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]
Q: I disagree with your opinion that Alex Rodriguez's contract hindered Texas' ability to construct its roster from '01 to '03. He averaged 9 WAR per year and was worth the money he was paid. Throughout this period the Rangers had a payroll that ranked in the top 10 in baseball. The fact is they had plenty of money to spend but failed to build a successful team around their superstar shortstop. Chan Ho Park didn't work out, nor did Juan Gonzalez. I would love to read the reasons why you feel the way you do, as this is the second or third time in the past week that you have referenced his contract in such light. Was he not good enough? Was it just far too much money? I clearly see why teams have an apprehension throwing that much money at one player, and I'm relieved the Mariners didn't sign Prince, yet A-Rod should be looked at as an example of a player being paid what he was worth. The blame rests with their front office and the players who didn't produce.
Paul Larsgaard
Bellingham, Wash.
A: Paul -- thanks for your email. Folks who have worked for the Rangers during the last decade strongly believe that devoting such a high percentage of their payroll to one player -- no matter how well he played -- constricted the way they constructed the rest of the team. It's not just me; the people making the decisions came to believe that. And in recent years, you've seen teams steer away from situations in which they devote more than 15 percent (or so) of their payroll to one guy. Joe Mauer is one exception …
The myth of the steady rise.
Spoiler [+]
Having lost 95 or more games in three of the last four seasons, the Seattle Mariners have moved into full-scale rebuilding mode. Their big offensive upgrade of the winter was 22-year-old Jesus Montero, and the team is currently penciling in players with less than a full year of experience at second base (Dustin Ackley), third base (Kyle Seager) and left field (Mike Carp), plus wherever Montero ends up playing. General manager Jack Zduriencik is preaching patience, letting the fans know that they should expect to take some lumps this year, but that the fruit of going young will pay off with a steady rise up the standings as the kids mature.
Zduriencik can point to the Texas Rangers, who slowly stockpiled talent for years and saw their win total rise every season from 2007 through 2011. However, a more thorough look at recent history suggests that teams don't usually follow this model of taking a slow, methodical rise from good to bad.
That isn't to say that teams that lose with a bunch of young players don't improve as those guys develop, or that the strategy currently being employed in Seattle won't work in the long term. However, the evidence does show that improvement often comes from a big unexpected leap forward, as opposed to a steady rise.
The most recent example of this phenomenon was last year's Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the National League West with a 94-68 record and took the Milwaukee Brewers to five games in the NLDS. The Diamondbacks had won just 65 games in 2010 and 70 games in 2009, so they certainly weren't trending upward with a youth movement. They spent most of last winter fielding offers for star right fielder Justin Upton before finally deciding to hang on to him, and then GM Kevin Towers filled out roster with seven free agents, all of whom were 33 or older.
One of those additions, J.J. Putz, proved to be a vital cog in their bullpen turnaround, and the team improved on its 2010 record by 29 games. Rather than turning the franchise around slowly, the Diamondbacks relied on a roster full of solid contributors around one superstar (Upton) and were able to thrust themselves back into contention in short order.
The D-backs weren't the only team that skipped the slow climb back toward contention in recent years. The 2010 San Diego Padres improved by 15 wins and lost out on a division title during the final game of the season, while the Cincinnati Reds added 13 wins to their prior season total and captured the NL Central title. In 2009, the Colorado Rockies won 92 games and the wild-card spot just a year after winning 74 games and trading away Matt Holliday. Then, of course, there are the Tampa Bay Rays, who famously jumped from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 in 2008.
[h4]Rebuilding myth[/h4]
Of the teams with the 10 worst records in 2008, only one has seen an incremental increase in wins.
[table][tr][th=""]TEAM[/th][th=""]'08[/th][th=""]'09[/th][th=""]'10[/th][th=""]'11[/th][th=""]AVG[/th][/tr][tr][td]KC[/td][td]75[/td][td]65[/td][td]67[/td][td]71[/td][td]67.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]COL[/td][td]74[/td][td]92[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][td]84.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]CIN[/td][td]74[/td][td]78[/td][td]91[/td][td]79[/td][td]82.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]DET[/td][td]74[/td][td]86[/td][td]81[/td][td]95[/td][td]87.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]SF[/td][td]72[/td][td]88[/td][td]92[/td][td]86[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]ATL[/td][td]72[/td][td]86[/td][td]91[/td][td]89[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]BAL[/td][td]68[/td][td]64[/td][td]66[/td][td]69[/td][td]66.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]PIT[/td][td]67[/td][td]62[/td][td]57[/td][td]72[/td][td]63.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SD[/td][td]63[/td][td]75[/td][td]90[/td][td]71[/td][td]78.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SEA[/td][td]61[/td][td]85[/td][td]61[/td][td]67[/td][td]71.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]WAS[/td][td]59[/td][td]59[/td][td]69[/td][td]80[/td][td]69.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]AVG[/td][td]69.0[/td][td]76.4[/td][td]77.1[/td][td]78.0[/td][td]77.2[/td][/tr][/table]
These big leaps forward may look like the exception rather than the rule, but the data suggests that large, unexpected improvements are actually more common than sustained rises through the ranks. The table to the right shows the 10 worst records in baseball in 2008, and then their win totals for each of the next three seasons:
The teams that struggled the most in 2008 were significantly improved the following year, but their average win totals in the following two seasons barely improved. The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers were able to make the leap directly from bottom-10 team to perennial contenders, with all three posting .500 or better records in each season since. The only team that is following the traditional model of incremental improvement is the Nationals.
Even looking closer at the history of teams that built from within with young talent, we don't really see this steady rise from bad to OK to contender. Tampa Bay won 67 games in 2005, 61 games in 2006 and 66 games in 2007 before surging forward to 97 victories and a World Series appearance in 2008. The Rays were stockpiling young talent during those years of losing, but they jumped straight from being terrible to being great in one season.
Baseball is a weird game, full of unexpected outcomes and things that simply couldn't have been predicted in any kind of five-year plan. Young players get hurt, bad players have good years, expected contenders fall apart and teams that were written off as also-rans make the playoffs every year. Building from within is a good strategy, but teams should also put themselves in a position to capitalize if the stars align and they end up as the season's surprise contender.
The Miami Marlins made the biggest offseason splash in attempting to upgrade a roster that won 72 games last year, but don't be surprised if one of the other 10 teams that finished with 75 or fewer wins last year makes a run at a playoff spot as well.
The unexpected contender has become so common that we need to begin to expect it. Teams go from terrible to good in one season every year, and every team in baseball should begin 2012 with some modicum of hope. The Mariners, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins might look like also-rans on paper, but don't be surprised if we're talking about whether one of these teams can actually pull off the upset in September.
Zduriencik can point to the Texas Rangers, who slowly stockpiled talent for years and saw their win total rise every season from 2007 through 2011. However, a more thorough look at recent history suggests that teams don't usually follow this model of taking a slow, methodical rise from good to bad.
That isn't to say that teams that lose with a bunch of young players don't improve as those guys develop, or that the strategy currently being employed in Seattle won't work in the long term. However, the evidence does show that improvement often comes from a big unexpected leap forward, as opposed to a steady rise.
The most recent example of this phenomenon was last year's Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the National League West with a 94-68 record and took the Milwaukee Brewers to five games in the NLDS. The Diamondbacks had won just 65 games in 2010 and 70 games in 2009, so they certainly weren't trending upward with a youth movement. They spent most of last winter fielding offers for star right fielder Justin Upton before finally deciding to hang on to him, and then GM Kevin Towers filled out roster with seven free agents, all of whom were 33 or older.
One of those additions, J.J. Putz, proved to be a vital cog in their bullpen turnaround, and the team improved on its 2010 record by 29 games. Rather than turning the franchise around slowly, the Diamondbacks relied on a roster full of solid contributors around one superstar (Upton) and were able to thrust themselves back into contention in short order.
The D-backs weren't the only team that skipped the slow climb back toward contention in recent years. The 2010 San Diego Padres improved by 15 wins and lost out on a division title during the final game of the season, while the Cincinnati Reds added 13 wins to their prior season total and captured the NL Central title. In 2009, the Colorado Rockies won 92 games and the wild-card spot just a year after winning 74 games and trading away Matt Holliday. Then, of course, there are the Tampa Bay Rays, who famously jumped from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 in 2008.
[h4]Rebuilding myth[/h4]
Of the teams with the 10 worst records in 2008, only one has seen an incremental increase in wins.
[table][tr][th=""]TEAM[/th][th=""]'08[/th][th=""]'09[/th][th=""]'10[/th][th=""]'11[/th][th=""]AVG[/th][/tr][tr][td]KC[/td][td]75[/td][td]65[/td][td]67[/td][td]71[/td][td]67.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]COL[/td][td]74[/td][td]92[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][td]84.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]CIN[/td][td]74[/td][td]78[/td][td]91[/td][td]79[/td][td]82.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]DET[/td][td]74[/td][td]86[/td][td]81[/td][td]95[/td][td]87.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]SF[/td][td]72[/td][td]88[/td][td]92[/td][td]86[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]ATL[/td][td]72[/td][td]86[/td][td]91[/td][td]89[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]BAL[/td][td]68[/td][td]64[/td][td]66[/td][td]69[/td][td]66.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]PIT[/td][td]67[/td][td]62[/td][td]57[/td][td]72[/td][td]63.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SD[/td][td]63[/td][td]75[/td][td]90[/td][td]71[/td][td]78.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SEA[/td][td]61[/td][td]85[/td][td]61[/td][td]67[/td][td]71.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]WAS[/td][td]59[/td][td]59[/td][td]69[/td][td]80[/td][td]69.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]AVG[/td][td]69.0[/td][td]76.4[/td][td]77.1[/td][td]78.0[/td][td]77.2[/td][/tr][/table]
These big leaps forward may look like the exception rather than the rule, but the data suggests that large, unexpected improvements are actually more common than sustained rises through the ranks. The table to the right shows the 10 worst records in baseball in 2008, and then their win totals for each of the next three seasons:
The teams that struggled the most in 2008 were significantly improved the following year, but their average win totals in the following two seasons barely improved. The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers were able to make the leap directly from bottom-10 team to perennial contenders, with all three posting .500 or better records in each season since. The only team that is following the traditional model of incremental improvement is the Nationals.
Even looking closer at the history of teams that built from within with young talent, we don't really see this steady rise from bad to OK to contender. Tampa Bay won 67 games in 2005, 61 games in 2006 and 66 games in 2007 before surging forward to 97 victories and a World Series appearance in 2008. The Rays were stockpiling young talent during those years of losing, but they jumped straight from being terrible to being great in one season.
Baseball is a weird game, full of unexpected outcomes and things that simply couldn't have been predicted in any kind of five-year plan. Young players get hurt, bad players have good years, expected contenders fall apart and teams that were written off as also-rans make the playoffs every year. Building from within is a good strategy, but teams should also put themselves in a position to capitalize if the stars align and they end up as the season's surprise contender.
The Miami Marlins made the biggest offseason splash in attempting to upgrade a roster that won 72 games last year, but don't be surprised if one of the other 10 teams that finished with 75 or fewer wins last year makes a run at a playoff spot as well.
The unexpected contender has become so common that we need to begin to expect it. Teams go from terrible to good in one season every year, and every team in baseball should begin 2012 with some modicum of hope. The Mariners, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins might look like also-rans on paper, but don't be surprised if we're talking about whether one of these teams can actually pull off the upset in September.
Comparing the Pujols and Fielder deals.
Spoiler [+]
No free agent position player came within $50 million of the deals that Albert Pujols ($246 million, according to the union's calculation) and Prince Fielder ($214 million) got this winter.
No, check that: No free agent position player came within $100 million. There was a top 1 percent in the baseball world this winter, as well, with the middle class left to take the leftovers. The third-highest free-agent position player this winter was Jose Reyes, at $106 million, and the fourth-highest was Jimmy Rollins, whose deal of $38 million is more than $200 million less than Pujols' contract.
This makes the Pujols and Fielder deals fascinating to talent evaluators who have pored over the remains of the agreements as if conducting an autopsy.
An informal poll of 10 evaluators in the last few days -- a mix of team presidents, general managers, assistant GMs and scouts -- generated a solid consensus about whose deal was better for the respective clubs.
Five believe the Tigers' signing of Fielder was the better deal.
Three believe Pujols was the better signing.
Two believe both teams are not going to get what they paid for.
What follows are most of the individual responses:
High-ranking AL official: "I think I have to go with the Angels' signing of Pujols, only because from the marketing perspective, you understand what [Angels owner] Arte Moreno is trying to do. I think Pujols is going to have a much-bigger impact from a revenue standpoint than Prince Fielder, because the Tigers have a ceiling with how much revenue they can generate. He's not going to change their TV (revenue), in the way that Pujols will. Albert's the older player, but I think he's the bigger star, and he'll generate more money."
High-ranking NL official: "Is Pujols going to be productive for two or three more years? Longer? That, to me, is the key question. If Pujols can be productive for the next six years, then the Angels got the better deal. If not, then Detroit. The Pujols deal could be an epic disaster if he's not productive in the last five or six years of the deal, at $30 million annually. The Fielder deal is one of the craziest deals in a while. That would have been a great deal at the beginning of the offseason. Not sure why the Tigers didn't just go huge for seven years. Given the market, $26 million a year over seven years or something would have been plenty. The nine years is just inexplicable in late January."
AL talent evaluator: "Fielder's the better deal. Fielder is the younger player, and he's left-handed; he turns 28 this spring. It's not inconceivable that at the end of this deal, he could still play a couple of more years, if he's pushing for the Hall of Fame. People I know say he absolutely loves this game. He loves playing baseball. I first saw Prince when he was in the ninth grade; he could rake then, and he can still rake now."
NL executive: "I think the Tigers got the better deal. Age matters. I might change my mind after the Cabrera 3B experiment unfolds."
NL executive: "Having lived those deals, I don't think either one of them will be happy."
AL Scout: "Either deal is appealing, but I would go with the younger guy with fewer years -- Fielder."
AL official: "It's tough to tell. You have got Miguel Cabrera moving to third base, and that will dictate a lot to the value of the Fielder deal. Pujols fits better with Angels, but Trumbo has to switch positions or get traded. I think both will be good players early in the contract, but the true value will be told when they are 4-5 years into the deals."
NL evaluator: "I like the Tigers' deal for Fielder more than the Angels' deal for Pujols. Fielder is younger and more consistent while Pujols is older -- and some people question his age being as young as he maintains -- and has seen his OPS decline for four straight seasons. Fielder got less money total, fewer years, and less average annual value. Pujols brings leadership and legacy, but going forward the better player is Fielder."
AL Scout: "It's hard to like either of those deals, especially with respect to the Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez deals. However, if you're going to like one of them, I'd prefer the shorter, cheaper deal given to the younger player, to put it pretty simply, so I'd go with Detroit. I'm not sure either guy will carry any defensive value even three or four years into their respective deals, though at least Detroit can say that as Prince's deal winds down, they at least won't be paying him $30M per year as the Angels will to Pujols. Not crazy about either one, but Prince's seems to be more sensible."
For the readers: Which deal do you think is better?
• I asked a longtime agent to give me an estimate of what it would require for the Kansas City Royals to sign Eric Hosmer to a 10-year-deal, to lock him down. "I'd say $80 million to $90 million," he said.
There are a small handful of players who signed enormous contracts very early in their careers, all with small-market and mid-market teams.
1. Evan Longoria: Early in the 2008 season, Longoria signed a six-year, $17.5 million deal -- it's now worth slightly more than that because of some contractual options -- and the guaranteed salaries run through the end of the 2013 season. Here's the Tampa Bay kicker: The Rays hold club options through 2016, for $7.5 million in '14, $11 million in 2015 and $11.5 million in 2016.
2. Troy Tulowitzki: Back in 2008, he agreed to a six-year deal worth $31 million, and last winter, that was renegotiated. The Rockies shortstop is now signed through 2020 for $157.5 million.
3. Ryan Braun: The slugger's original deal was for eight years and $45 million, but rather than take the same approach as Fielder, Braun renegotiated his contract; he's signed through 2020 and will make an additional $105 million in the last five years of the contract.
• Stephen Strasburg's first 92 innings in the majors, in light of his age, have been matched by exactly one pitcher in history. A current pitcher, actually.
From John Labombarda of Elias: Players with 100 or more strikeouts, an ERA less than 2.60 and a WHIP less than 1.00 through a season in which they turned 23:
Neftali Feliz: 2009-11, 164 strikeouts, 2.55 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Strasburg: 2010-11, 116 strikeouts, 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
• Some day in 2012, Colorado Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado will be in the big leagues; it's just a question of when. The Rockies believe his approach at the plate is ready for the big leagues, but they will likely give him more time to evolve in the minors and want to see him have more success in the minors -- and more failure, as he learns to make day-to-day adjustments.
• Forget the question about whether Hanley Ramirez will be able to make the position change to third, says Andre Dawson -- the bigger question is whether he gets back to being the type of offensive player he was in the past, as he told Joe Capozzi.
Totally agree. And the lack of aggressive trade suitors tells you other teams have the same doubt.
• A whole bunch of rich guys continue to bid on the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Bill Shaikin writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Oakland Athletics remain open to signing Manny Ramirez.
2. Right on schedule, at the end of January, the Baltimore Orioles are poised to make some roster moves. It really is incredible that year after year after year, they are left to pick over the carcass of the offseason, after the other teams are done. Baltimore is talking to the St. Louis Cardinals about Kyle McClellan.
3. The Minnesota Twins are going to try Trevor Plouffe in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup.
4. Shaun Marcum is going to tweak his delivery.
5. Despite all that happened in the last week, the Tigers are not looking to trade their top third base prospect, writes Lynn Henning.
6. Roy Oswalt will meet with the Texas Rangers today, and he must answer questions in the right way.
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]
Note: I wrote the other day that, generally speaking, spending 15 percent of your payroll on one player is probably something teams would shy away from.
Q: The 15% rule is a good one, Buster, but it's not enough. The real rules are: no one player more than 15%; no two more than 25%, no three more than 33%, no four more than 40% and no six more than 50%. It's how you go about constructing a roster.
Greg, L.A.
A: Greg: Generally speaking, I'd bet there are a whole lot of general managers who agree with you.
No, check that: No free agent position player came within $100 million. There was a top 1 percent in the baseball world this winter, as well, with the middle class left to take the leftovers. The third-highest free-agent position player this winter was Jose Reyes, at $106 million, and the fourth-highest was Jimmy Rollins, whose deal of $38 million is more than $200 million less than Pujols' contract.
This makes the Pujols and Fielder deals fascinating to talent evaluators who have pored over the remains of the agreements as if conducting an autopsy.
An informal poll of 10 evaluators in the last few days -- a mix of team presidents, general managers, assistant GMs and scouts -- generated a solid consensus about whose deal was better for the respective clubs.
Five believe the Tigers' signing of Fielder was the better deal.
Three believe Pujols was the better signing.
Two believe both teams are not going to get what they paid for.
What follows are most of the individual responses:
High-ranking AL official: "I think I have to go with the Angels' signing of Pujols, only because from the marketing perspective, you understand what [Angels owner] Arte Moreno is trying to do. I think Pujols is going to have a much-bigger impact from a revenue standpoint than Prince Fielder, because the Tigers have a ceiling with how much revenue they can generate. He's not going to change their TV (revenue), in the way that Pujols will. Albert's the older player, but I think he's the bigger star, and he'll generate more money."
High-ranking NL official: "Is Pujols going to be productive for two or three more years? Longer? That, to me, is the key question. If Pujols can be productive for the next six years, then the Angels got the better deal. If not, then Detroit. The Pujols deal could be an epic disaster if he's not productive in the last five or six years of the deal, at $30 million annually. The Fielder deal is one of the craziest deals in a while. That would have been a great deal at the beginning of the offseason. Not sure why the Tigers didn't just go huge for seven years. Given the market, $26 million a year over seven years or something would have been plenty. The nine years is just inexplicable in late January."
AL talent evaluator: "Fielder's the better deal. Fielder is the younger player, and he's left-handed; he turns 28 this spring. It's not inconceivable that at the end of this deal, he could still play a couple of more years, if he's pushing for the Hall of Fame. People I know say he absolutely loves this game. He loves playing baseball. I first saw Prince when he was in the ninth grade; he could rake then, and he can still rake now."
NL executive: "I think the Tigers got the better deal. Age matters. I might change my mind after the Cabrera 3B experiment unfolds."
NL executive: "Having lived those deals, I don't think either one of them will be happy."
AL Scout: "Either deal is appealing, but I would go with the younger guy with fewer years -- Fielder."
AL official: "It's tough to tell. You have got Miguel Cabrera moving to third base, and that will dictate a lot to the value of the Fielder deal. Pujols fits better with Angels, but Trumbo has to switch positions or get traded. I think both will be good players early in the contract, but the true value will be told when they are 4-5 years into the deals."
NL evaluator: "I like the Tigers' deal for Fielder more than the Angels' deal for Pujols. Fielder is younger and more consistent while Pujols is older -- and some people question his age being as young as he maintains -- and has seen his OPS decline for four straight seasons. Fielder got less money total, fewer years, and less average annual value. Pujols brings leadership and legacy, but going forward the better player is Fielder."
AL Scout: "It's hard to like either of those deals, especially with respect to the Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez deals. However, if you're going to like one of them, I'd prefer the shorter, cheaper deal given to the younger player, to put it pretty simply, so I'd go with Detroit. I'm not sure either guy will carry any defensive value even three or four years into their respective deals, though at least Detroit can say that as Prince's deal winds down, they at least won't be paying him $30M per year as the Angels will to Pujols. Not crazy about either one, but Prince's seems to be more sensible."
For the readers: Which deal do you think is better?
• I asked a longtime agent to give me an estimate of what it would require for the Kansas City Royals to sign Eric Hosmer to a 10-year-deal, to lock him down. "I'd say $80 million to $90 million," he said.
There are a small handful of players who signed enormous contracts very early in their careers, all with small-market and mid-market teams.
1. Evan Longoria: Early in the 2008 season, Longoria signed a six-year, $17.5 million deal -- it's now worth slightly more than that because of some contractual options -- and the guaranteed salaries run through the end of the 2013 season. Here's the Tampa Bay kicker: The Rays hold club options through 2016, for $7.5 million in '14, $11 million in 2015 and $11.5 million in 2016.
2. Troy Tulowitzki: Back in 2008, he agreed to a six-year deal worth $31 million, and last winter, that was renegotiated. The Rockies shortstop is now signed through 2020 for $157.5 million.
3. Ryan Braun: The slugger's original deal was for eight years and $45 million, but rather than take the same approach as Fielder, Braun renegotiated his contract; he's signed through 2020 and will make an additional $105 million in the last five years of the contract.
• Stephen Strasburg's first 92 innings in the majors, in light of his age, have been matched by exactly one pitcher in history. A current pitcher, actually.
From John Labombarda of Elias: Players with 100 or more strikeouts, an ERA less than 2.60 and a WHIP less than 1.00 through a season in which they turned 23:
Neftali Feliz: 2009-11, 164 strikeouts, 2.55 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Strasburg: 2010-11, 116 strikeouts, 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
• Some day in 2012, Colorado Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado will be in the big leagues; it's just a question of when. The Rockies believe his approach at the plate is ready for the big leagues, but they will likely give him more time to evolve in the minors and want to see him have more success in the minors -- and more failure, as he learns to make day-to-day adjustments.
• Forget the question about whether Hanley Ramirez will be able to make the position change to third, says Andre Dawson -- the bigger question is whether he gets back to being the type of offensive player he was in the past, as he told Joe Capozzi.
Totally agree. And the lack of aggressive trade suitors tells you other teams have the same doubt.
• A whole bunch of rich guys continue to bid on the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Bill Shaikin writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Oakland Athletics remain open to signing Manny Ramirez.
2. Right on schedule, at the end of January, the Baltimore Orioles are poised to make some roster moves. It really is incredible that year after year after year, they are left to pick over the carcass of the offseason, after the other teams are done. Baltimore is talking to the St. Louis Cardinals about Kyle McClellan.
3. The Minnesota Twins are going to try Trevor Plouffe in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup.
4. Shaun Marcum is going to tweak his delivery.
5. Despite all that happened in the last week, the Tigers are not looking to trade their top third base prospect, writes Lynn Henning.
6. Roy Oswalt will meet with the Texas Rangers today, and he must answer questions in the right way.
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]
Note: I wrote the other day that, generally speaking, spending 15 percent of your payroll on one player is probably something teams would shy away from.
Q: The 15% rule is a good one, Buster, but it's not enough. The real rules are: no one player more than 15%; no two more than 25%, no three more than 33%, no four more than 40% and no six more than 50%. It's how you go about constructing a roster.
Greg, L.A.
A: Greg: Generally speaking, I'd bet there are a whole lot of general managers who agree with you.
The shifting landscape in baseball.
Spoiler [+]
The other day, a smart baseball official noted the shifting landscape in the game. "It's becoming more and more difficult to find good everyday position players," he said. "It used to be that good young pitching was harder to come by, but now I think it's getting more difficult to find the position player who can do everything to stay in the lineup every day."
Such as hitting effectively, against both right-handers and left-handers. Such as playing sound defense (unless you happen to be an AL designated hitter). Such as remaining healthy.
In other words, the volume of prospects projected to play 150 games and have 600 plate appearances annually is diminishing. This is why the ability of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to be in the lineup every day was one of the major selling points of their free agency, and why the Seattle Mariners operated in the face of conventional wisdom and traded a young starting pitcher with No. 1-type stuff -- Michael Pineda -- for Jesus Montero, who is expected to be a strong everyday offensive player at catcher or designated hitter.
None of this is happening overnight. General managers still would give their pinkies for Clayton Kershaw. But since Major League Baseball and the players' association got serious about drug testing in 2006, run production has decreased, good pitching is more easily acquired and elite power hitters have become more scarce. In 2011, two hitters reached 40 homers -- Jose Bautista, with 43, and Curtis Granderson, with 41. In 2005, there were nine. In 2001, a time generally regarded as the pinnacle of the steroids era, there were 12.
The increasingly desperate search for offense has caused some teams to focus on flexibility -- on developing and finding cheaper players who can man multiple positions and help create favorable matchups on a given day. The Tampa Bay Rays are regarded as the masters of this, and Ben Zobrist could be the poster child of this mastery. In 2010, he played six positions, helping to facilitate lineups that could include everyone from Matt Joyce to Sean Rodriguez to Reid Brignac. The other day, the Rays signed Jeff Keppinger because of his ability to mash left-handed pitching and play multiple infield positions.
Some of it is because of improved medicine: Teams use the disabled list more often to treat and rest players in a way they did not decades ago. Some of the shift is through the rise in the use of sabermetrics, in how teams evaluate and implement those favorable matchups -- much in the same way that relievers are now used.
You can track a dramatic change in the way starting pitchers and relievers are used through the number of complete games. For example, 11 NL pitchers had 13 or more complete games in 1968; in 2011, Roy Halladay led the NL with eight complete games.
There is a more gradual shift in the number of near iron men, but it's there, too.
In the 10-team National League of 1968, 24 players played in 150 or more games. The Chicago Cubs had six regulars who posted at least 150 games:
Ernie Banks, 150
Glenn Beckert, 155
Randy Hundley, 160 (Yes, he was the catcher)
Don Kessinger, 160
Ron Santo, 162
Billy Williams, 163
By comparison, center fielder Adolfo Phillips was a slacker, playing in 143 games.
In the 16-team National League last year, just 30 players played in at least 150 games. The 14-team American League, with the built-in advantage of being able to regularly rest everyday guys with the DH, had 32 players who played in 150 or more games; in 1968, there were 27 players with 150 or more games played.
What does it all mean? Well, the market value of rock-solid position players appears to be climbing, which the Pittsburgh Pirates may find out if failed contract negotiations nudge them into trading Andrew McCutchen. And increasingly, you may see teams follow the Rays' example in coveting versatile players and evaluating day by day the best way to use them.
• Lots of good wishes for Brooks Robinson, who was hurt in a fall on Saturday, Joe Capozzi writes. He broke two bones, writes Dan Connolly.
• More problems may come for other players guilty of identity fraud.
• Paul Konerko told it like it is for the White Sox faithful. From the story:
Such as hitting effectively, against both right-handers and left-handers. Such as playing sound defense (unless you happen to be an AL designated hitter). Such as remaining healthy.
In other words, the volume of prospects projected to play 150 games and have 600 plate appearances annually is diminishing. This is why the ability of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to be in the lineup every day was one of the major selling points of their free agency, and why the Seattle Mariners operated in the face of conventional wisdom and traded a young starting pitcher with No. 1-type stuff -- Michael Pineda -- for Jesus Montero, who is expected to be a strong everyday offensive player at catcher or designated hitter.
None of this is happening overnight. General managers still would give their pinkies for Clayton Kershaw. But since Major League Baseball and the players' association got serious about drug testing in 2006, run production has decreased, good pitching is more easily acquired and elite power hitters have become more scarce. In 2011, two hitters reached 40 homers -- Jose Bautista, with 43, and Curtis Granderson, with 41. In 2005, there were nine. In 2001, a time generally regarded as the pinnacle of the steroids era, there were 12.
The increasingly desperate search for offense has caused some teams to focus on flexibility -- on developing and finding cheaper players who can man multiple positions and help create favorable matchups on a given day. The Tampa Bay Rays are regarded as the masters of this, and Ben Zobrist could be the poster child of this mastery. In 2010, he played six positions, helping to facilitate lineups that could include everyone from Matt Joyce to Sean Rodriguez to Reid Brignac. The other day, the Rays signed Jeff Keppinger because of his ability to mash left-handed pitching and play multiple infield positions.
Some of it is because of improved medicine: Teams use the disabled list more often to treat and rest players in a way they did not decades ago. Some of the shift is through the rise in the use of sabermetrics, in how teams evaluate and implement those favorable matchups -- much in the same way that relievers are now used.
You can track a dramatic change in the way starting pitchers and relievers are used through the number of complete games. For example, 11 NL pitchers had 13 or more complete games in 1968; in 2011, Roy Halladay led the NL with eight complete games.
There is a more gradual shift in the number of near iron men, but it's there, too.
In the 10-team National League of 1968, 24 players played in 150 or more games. The Chicago Cubs had six regulars who posted at least 150 games:
Ernie Banks, 150
Glenn Beckert, 155
Randy Hundley, 160 (Yes, he was the catcher)
Don Kessinger, 160
Ron Santo, 162
Billy Williams, 163
By comparison, center fielder Adolfo Phillips was a slacker, playing in 143 games.
In the 16-team National League last year, just 30 players played in at least 150 games. The 14-team American League, with the built-in advantage of being able to regularly rest everyday guys with the DH, had 32 players who played in 150 or more games; in 1968, there were 27 players with 150 or more games played.
What does it all mean? Well, the market value of rock-solid position players appears to be climbing, which the Pittsburgh Pirates may find out if failed contract negotiations nudge them into trading Andrew McCutchen. And increasingly, you may see teams follow the Rays' example in coveting versatile players and evaluating day by day the best way to use them.
• Lots of good wishes for Brooks Robinson, who was hurt in a fall on Saturday, Joe Capozzi writes. He broke two bones, writes Dan Connolly.
• More problems may come for other players guilty of identity fraud.
• Paul Konerko told it like it is for the White Sox faithful. From the story:
• The bottom line in baseball: Big TV money buys big stars, writes Bill Lubinger.
• Prince Fielder doesn't let his emotions get the best of him anymore, writes Carlos Monarrez. Nolan Ryan says the Tigers are a force to be dealt with.
Little Leaguers recall an intimidating Prince Fielder at age 9.
• The great debate about Miguel Cabrera has begun, writes Bob Wojnowski.
• Dodgers fans should be careful what they wish for with the incoming owner, writes T.J. Simers.
I'm not sure I agree with T.J. If the next owner has the money to win the bidding that may well be close to $2 billion -- and word is that the leading bidders are built mostly on one big-money guy -- that can't be anything but an improvement over the current situation. There's nowhere to go but up.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Twins' 2011 payroll could be an aberration, says the owner.
2. Dealing away Jesus Montero could prove costly for the Yankees in the long run, writes Joel Sherman.
3. Josh Willingham is ready to play right field for the Twins.
4. Hal McCoy grades Walt Jocketty on his offseason moves.
5. The Cardinals are in the running for Roy Oswalt. The Rangers are scheduled to meet with him Monday.
Texas' interest, of course, is rooted in Oswalt's past relationship with Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux from their days with the Houston Astros.
6. Matt Harrison is focused on staying in the rotation. As I've written here before: Harrison is among the most underrated starters in the AL. He had a 3.80 ERA pitching in one of the toughest home parks (for pitchers) in the majors and a 2.99 ERA on the road.
7. The Rockies might install a humidor for their Triple-A team.
8. Edwin Jackson is trying to decide whether to sign with the Orioles. The upside: Baltimore may well have offered the most money. The downside: It would be tough sledding in the next few years for Jackson, pitching in a small ballpark for a team that hasn't had a winning record in a long time.
9. The Rays have pitching to deal.
Miguel Cabrera's hot corner debate.
The myth of the steady rise.
Comparing the Pujols and Fielder deals.
The shifting landscape in baseball.
• The bottom line in baseball: Big TV money buys big stars, writes Bill Lubinger.
• Prince Fielder doesn't let his emotions get the best of him anymore, writes Carlos Monarrez. Nolan Ryan says the Tigers are a force to be dealt with.
Little Leaguers recall an intimidating Prince Fielder at age 9.
• The great debate about Miguel Cabrera has begun, writes Bob Wojnowski.
• Dodgers fans should be careful what they wish for with the incoming owner, writes T.J. Simers.
I'm not sure I agree with T.J. If the next owner has the money to win the bidding that may well be close to $2 billion -- and word is that the leading bidders are built mostly on one big-money guy -- that can't be anything but an improvement over the current situation. There's nowhere to go but up.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Twins' 2011 payroll could be an aberration, says the owner.
2. Dealing away Jesus Montero could prove costly for the Yankees in the long run, writes Joel Sherman.
3. Josh Willingham is ready to play right field for the Twins.
4. Hal McCoy grades Walt Jocketty on his offseason moves.
5. The Cardinals are in the running for Roy Oswalt. The Rangers are scheduled to meet with him Monday.
Texas' interest, of course, is rooted in Oswalt's past relationship with Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux from their days with the Houston Astros.
6. Matt Harrison is focused on staying in the rotation. As I've written here before: Harrison is among the most underrated starters in the AL. He had a 3.80 ERA pitching in one of the toughest home parks (for pitchers) in the majors and a 2.99 ERA on the road.
7. The Rockies might install a humidor for their Triple-A team.
8. Edwin Jackson is trying to decide whether to sign with the Orioles. The upside: Baltimore may well have offered the most money. The downside: It would be tough sledding in the next few years for Jackson, pitching in a small ballpark for a team that hasn't had a winning record in a long time.
9. The Rays have pitching to deal.
Spoiler [+]
During the past couple of days, some rival executives have debated whether the Detroit Tigers are serious about playing Miguel Cabrera at third base, or if this is just early lip service until they get to spring training and Jim Leyland gets a chance to sit down with the slugger to tell him it's not happening.
"There's no way they go with that," said one highly ranked NL exec. "It can't work."
But Leyland has flatly insisted that Cabrera can be his third baseman. He did so on "Mike & Mike" on Friday morning, and later talked to Tom Gage of the Detroit News. From Tom's story:
We'll see.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Roy Oswalt is expected to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals soon, as Gordon Edes writes. That means that St. Louis has six starters for five spots, assuming that Oswalt joins Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse. At the winter meetings, the Cardinals talked to other teams about Westbrook and Lohse; if you recall, Lohse has a no-trade clause and has indicated he has no intention of moving.
• Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he'd like a deal with Josh Hamilton by the start of the season. It figures to be difficult to reach an agreement, because Hamilton's side has visions of the huge free-agent payouts to Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder dancing in their heads, and the Rangers will aim for a much more conservative deal. If Hamilton sticks to what he said recently -- that he won't give the Rangers a hometown discount -- he is destined for free agency. (And you can bet he would be an interesting target for the Los Angeles Dodgers next fall, as a complement to Matt Kemp.)
• Mark Cuban and Dennis Gilbert are out of the bidding for the Dodgers. I've written here before: It's not clear from his actions whether Cuban is burning to own a baseball team. He talks about his interest when asked and seems to flirt a lot with the idea.
If Frank McCourt hadn't taken the Dodgers into bankruptcy and wrested control of the sale process away from Major League Baseball, Gilbert and his group may have been regarded as the leading contenders to buy the team, because of his relationship with the commissioner and Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
• Fielder has by far the latest signing date of any big-money free agent. The signing dates for the players who got nine-figure contracts, before Fielder signed this week:
Carlos Beltran: Jan. 13, 2005
Mark Teixeira: Jan. 6, 2009
Matt Holliday: Jan. 5, 2010
Fielder is on a fast track to put up some big numbers, writes John Lowe.
Another evaluator on Fielder: "This is someone who really loves baseball. He really loves to play. You'll never have to fight him to get him on the field."
• The Dodgers are anticipating good things from Dee Gordon, who has worked out extensively with Barry Larkin and Juan Castro this winter, after finishing very strongly last season. Check out his game log from 2011, day-by-day.
• The Washington Nationals believe that Chien-Ming Wang could be a help at the end of their rotation after coming back late last season and improving start to start. He didn't walk anyone in his last four outings, a sign of his progress from shoulder surgery.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Bud Selig reiterated what has been reported for many weeks: MLB wants and expects the expanded playoff format for this year. And as reported here, baseball is leaning toward a one-game playoff to determine division champions, rather than basing that on head-to-head results.
2. The Boston Red Sox signed John Maine.
3. The New York Mets signed an infielder.
4. Ryan Theriot joined a former teammate with the San Francisco Giants. From Henry Schulman's story:
6. White Sox GM Kenny Williams was booed at the team's fanfest event.
7. The Houston Astros are taking a flier on Zach Duke.
8. The Tampa Bay Rays announced the signing of Jeff Keppinger. They beat out the New York Yankees, among other teams.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]
Q: I disagree with your opinion that Alex Rodriguez's contract hindered Texas' ability to construct its roster from '01 to '03. He averaged 9 WAR per year and was worth the money he was paid. Throughout this period the Rangers had a payroll that ranked in the top 10 in baseball. The fact is they had plenty of money to spend but failed to build a successful team around their superstar shortstop. Chan Ho Park didn't work out, nor did Juan Gonzalez. I would love to read the reasons why you feel the way you do, as this is the second or third time in the past week that you have referenced his contract in such light. Was he not good enough? Was it just far too much money? I clearly see why teams have an apprehension throwing that much money at one player, and I'm relieved the Mariners didn't sign Prince, yet A-Rod should be looked at as an example of a player being paid what he was worth. The blame rests with their front office and the players who didn't produce.
Paul Larsgaard
Bellingham, Wash.
A: Paul -- thanks for your email. Folks who have worked for the Rangers during the last decade strongly believe that devoting such a high percentage of their payroll to one player -- no matter how well he played -- constricted the way they constructed the rest of the team. It's not just me; the people making the decisions came to believe that. And in recent years, you've seen teams steer away from situations in which they devote more than 15 percent (or so) of their payroll to one guy. Joe Mauer is one exception …
"There's no way they go with that," said one highly ranked NL exec. "It can't work."
But Leyland has flatly insisted that Cabrera can be his third baseman. He did so on "Mike & Mike" on Friday morning, and later talked to Tom Gage of the Detroit News. From Tom's story:
- If Cabrera has merely agreed, he's taking one for the team. Whenever something goes wrong, in that case, he could resent the switch. Or begin to resent it.
- But if Cabrera really wants to move back to his former position, he'll fight through any obstacles.
- On Friday, after a rough drive to his home outside Pittsburgh, manager Jim Leyland left no doubt about Cabrera's willingness to switch.
- "I think he wants to show the world he can play third base," Leyland said. "I don't think this is going to be bad. He told me he wants to play there."
- Enough said?
- The Tigers would not have signed Fielder without Cabrera's willingness to switch. They also would not have signed him without being convinced Cabrera's willingness was real.
- Here's more:
- [A]nd it won't require a body makeover for him to do it. The Tigers won't ask him to lose a lot of weight.
- "Everybody is all hung up on what he looks like and the fact he's heavy," Leyland said. "Sure, I want him to lose a little bit of weight, but I'll tell you what, not too much.
- "When you get conscious of your weight, you can lose strength along with weight. You can lose some self-confidence, too, and maybe you don't perform as well. That's no good."
We'll see.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Roy Oswalt is expected to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals soon, as Gordon Edes writes. That means that St. Louis has six starters for five spots, assuming that Oswalt joins Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse. At the winter meetings, the Cardinals talked to other teams about Westbrook and Lohse; if you recall, Lohse has a no-trade clause and has indicated he has no intention of moving.
• Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels says he'd like a deal with Josh Hamilton by the start of the season. It figures to be difficult to reach an agreement, because Hamilton's side has visions of the huge free-agent payouts to Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder dancing in their heads, and the Rangers will aim for a much more conservative deal. If Hamilton sticks to what he said recently -- that he won't give the Rangers a hometown discount -- he is destined for free agency. (And you can bet he would be an interesting target for the Los Angeles Dodgers next fall, as a complement to Matt Kemp.)
• Mark Cuban and Dennis Gilbert are out of the bidding for the Dodgers. I've written here before: It's not clear from his actions whether Cuban is burning to own a baseball team. He talks about his interest when asked and seems to flirt a lot with the idea.
If Frank McCourt hadn't taken the Dodgers into bankruptcy and wrested control of the sale process away from Major League Baseball, Gilbert and his group may have been regarded as the leading contenders to buy the team, because of his relationship with the commissioner and Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
• Fielder has by far the latest signing date of any big-money free agent. The signing dates for the players who got nine-figure contracts, before Fielder signed this week:
Carlos Beltran: Jan. 13, 2005
Mark Teixeira: Jan. 6, 2009
Matt Holliday: Jan. 5, 2010
Fielder is on a fast track to put up some big numbers, writes John Lowe.
Another evaluator on Fielder: "This is someone who really loves baseball. He really loves to play. You'll never have to fight him to get him on the field."
• The Dodgers are anticipating good things from Dee Gordon, who has worked out extensively with Barry Larkin and Juan Castro this winter, after finishing very strongly last season. Check out his game log from 2011, day-by-day.
• The Washington Nationals believe that Chien-Ming Wang could be a help at the end of their rotation after coming back late last season and improving start to start. He didn't walk anyone in his last four outings, a sign of his progress from shoulder surgery.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Bud Selig reiterated what has been reported for many weeks: MLB wants and expects the expanded playoff format for this year. And as reported here, baseball is leaning toward a one-game playoff to determine division champions, rather than basing that on head-to-head results.
2. The Boston Red Sox signed John Maine.
3. The New York Mets signed an infielder.
4. Ryan Theriot joined a former teammate with the San Francisco Giants. From Henry Schulman's story:
- [Bruce] Bochy reiterated that Crawford, the Giants' best defensive infielder, will go to camp next month as the starting shortstop, and that is the plan for the season.
- However, the Giants feel more comfortable having a shortstop who hits right-handed on the bench to face tough left-handed pitchers. Crawford was 4-for-30 against them as a rookie. Theriot is a .301 career hitter against lefties, .310 last year with St. Louis.
6. White Sox GM Kenny Williams was booed at the team's fanfest event.
7. The Houston Astros are taking a flier on Zach Duke.
8. The Tampa Bay Rays announced the signing of Jeff Keppinger. They beat out the New York Yankees, among other teams.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]
Q: I disagree with your opinion that Alex Rodriguez's contract hindered Texas' ability to construct its roster from '01 to '03. He averaged 9 WAR per year and was worth the money he was paid. Throughout this period the Rangers had a payroll that ranked in the top 10 in baseball. The fact is they had plenty of money to spend but failed to build a successful team around their superstar shortstop. Chan Ho Park didn't work out, nor did Juan Gonzalez. I would love to read the reasons why you feel the way you do, as this is the second or third time in the past week that you have referenced his contract in such light. Was he not good enough? Was it just far too much money? I clearly see why teams have an apprehension throwing that much money at one player, and I'm relieved the Mariners didn't sign Prince, yet A-Rod should be looked at as an example of a player being paid what he was worth. The blame rests with their front office and the players who didn't produce.
Paul Larsgaard
Bellingham, Wash.
A: Paul -- thanks for your email. Folks who have worked for the Rangers during the last decade strongly believe that devoting such a high percentage of their payroll to one player -- no matter how well he played -- constricted the way they constructed the rest of the team. It's not just me; the people making the decisions came to believe that. And in recent years, you've seen teams steer away from situations in which they devote more than 15 percent (or so) of their payroll to one guy. Joe Mauer is one exception …
The myth of the steady rise.
Spoiler [+]
Having lost 95 or more games in three of the last four seasons, the Seattle Mariners have moved into full-scale rebuilding mode. Their big offensive upgrade of the winter was 22-year-old Jesus Montero, and the team is currently penciling in players with less than a full year of experience at second base (Dustin Ackley), third base (Kyle Seager) and left field (Mike Carp), plus wherever Montero ends up playing. General manager Jack Zduriencik is preaching patience, letting the fans know that they should expect to take some lumps this year, but that the fruit of going young will pay off with a steady rise up the standings as the kids mature.
Zduriencik can point to the Texas Rangers, who slowly stockpiled talent for years and saw their win total rise every season from 2007 through 2011. However, a more thorough look at recent history suggests that teams don't usually follow this model of taking a slow, methodical rise from good to bad.
That isn't to say that teams that lose with a bunch of young players don't improve as those guys develop, or that the strategy currently being employed in Seattle won't work in the long term. However, the evidence does show that improvement often comes from a big unexpected leap forward, as opposed to a steady rise.
The most recent example of this phenomenon was last year's Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the National League West with a 94-68 record and took the Milwaukee Brewers to five games in the NLDS. The Diamondbacks had won just 65 games in 2010 and 70 games in 2009, so they certainly weren't trending upward with a youth movement. They spent most of last winter fielding offers for star right fielder Justin Upton before finally deciding to hang on to him, and then GM Kevin Towers filled out roster with seven free agents, all of whom were 33 or older.
One of those additions, J.J. Putz, proved to be a vital cog in their bullpen turnaround, and the team improved on its 2010 record by 29 games. Rather than turning the franchise around slowly, the Diamondbacks relied on a roster full of solid contributors around one superstar (Upton) and were able to thrust themselves back into contention in short order.
The D-backs weren't the only team that skipped the slow climb back toward contention in recent years. The 2010 San Diego Padres improved by 15 wins and lost out on a division title during the final game of the season, while the Cincinnati Reds added 13 wins to their prior season total and captured the NL Central title. In 2009, the Colorado Rockies won 92 games and the wild-card spot just a year after winning 74 games and trading away Matt Holliday. Then, of course, there are the Tampa Bay Rays, who famously jumped from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 in 2008.
[h4]Rebuilding myth[/h4]
Of the teams with the 10 worst records in 2008, only one has seen an incremental increase in wins.
[table][tr][th=""]TEAM[/th][th=""]'08[/th][th=""]'09[/th][th=""]'10[/th][th=""]'11[/th][th=""]AVG[/th][/tr][tr][td]KC[/td][td]75[/td][td]65[/td][td]67[/td][td]71[/td][td]67.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]COL[/td][td]74[/td][td]92[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][td]84.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]CIN[/td][td]74[/td][td]78[/td][td]91[/td][td]79[/td][td]82.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]DET[/td][td]74[/td][td]86[/td][td]81[/td][td]95[/td][td]87.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]SF[/td][td]72[/td][td]88[/td][td]92[/td][td]86[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]ATL[/td][td]72[/td][td]86[/td][td]91[/td][td]89[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]BAL[/td][td]68[/td][td]64[/td][td]66[/td][td]69[/td][td]66.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]PIT[/td][td]67[/td][td]62[/td][td]57[/td][td]72[/td][td]63.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SD[/td][td]63[/td][td]75[/td][td]90[/td][td]71[/td][td]78.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SEA[/td][td]61[/td][td]85[/td][td]61[/td][td]67[/td][td]71.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]WAS[/td][td]59[/td][td]59[/td][td]69[/td][td]80[/td][td]69.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]AVG[/td][td]69.0[/td][td]76.4[/td][td]77.1[/td][td]78.0[/td][td]77.2[/td][/tr][/table]
These big leaps forward may look like the exception rather than the rule, but the data suggests that large, unexpected improvements are actually more common than sustained rises through the ranks. The table to the right shows the 10 worst records in baseball in 2008, and then their win totals for each of the next three seasons:
The teams that struggled the most in 2008 were significantly improved the following year, but their average win totals in the following two seasons barely improved. The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers were able to make the leap directly from bottom-10 team to perennial contenders, with all three posting .500 or better records in each season since. The only team that is following the traditional model of incremental improvement is the Nationals.
Even looking closer at the history of teams that built from within with young talent, we don't really see this steady rise from bad to OK to contender. Tampa Bay won 67 games in 2005, 61 games in 2006 and 66 games in 2007 before surging forward to 97 victories and a World Series appearance in 2008. The Rays were stockpiling young talent during those years of losing, but they jumped straight from being terrible to being great in one season.
Baseball is a weird game, full of unexpected outcomes and things that simply couldn't have been predicted in any kind of five-year plan. Young players get hurt, bad players have good years, expected contenders fall apart and teams that were written off as also-rans make the playoffs every year. Building from within is a good strategy, but teams should also put themselves in a position to capitalize if the stars align and they end up as the season's surprise contender.
The Miami Marlins made the biggest offseason splash in attempting to upgrade a roster that won 72 games last year, but don't be surprised if one of the other 10 teams that finished with 75 or fewer wins last year makes a run at a playoff spot as well.
The unexpected contender has become so common that we need to begin to expect it. Teams go from terrible to good in one season every year, and every team in baseball should begin 2012 with some modicum of hope. The Mariners, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins might look like also-rans on paper, but don't be surprised if we're talking about whether one of these teams can actually pull off the upset in September.
Zduriencik can point to the Texas Rangers, who slowly stockpiled talent for years and saw their win total rise every season from 2007 through 2011. However, a more thorough look at recent history suggests that teams don't usually follow this model of taking a slow, methodical rise from good to bad.
That isn't to say that teams that lose with a bunch of young players don't improve as those guys develop, or that the strategy currently being employed in Seattle won't work in the long term. However, the evidence does show that improvement often comes from a big unexpected leap forward, as opposed to a steady rise.
The most recent example of this phenomenon was last year's Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the National League West with a 94-68 record and took the Milwaukee Brewers to five games in the NLDS. The Diamondbacks had won just 65 games in 2010 and 70 games in 2009, so they certainly weren't trending upward with a youth movement. They spent most of last winter fielding offers for star right fielder Justin Upton before finally deciding to hang on to him, and then GM Kevin Towers filled out roster with seven free agents, all of whom were 33 or older.
One of those additions, J.J. Putz, proved to be a vital cog in their bullpen turnaround, and the team improved on its 2010 record by 29 games. Rather than turning the franchise around slowly, the Diamondbacks relied on a roster full of solid contributors around one superstar (Upton) and were able to thrust themselves back into contention in short order.
The D-backs weren't the only team that skipped the slow climb back toward contention in recent years. The 2010 San Diego Padres improved by 15 wins and lost out on a division title during the final game of the season, while the Cincinnati Reds added 13 wins to their prior season total and captured the NL Central title. In 2009, the Colorado Rockies won 92 games and the wild-card spot just a year after winning 74 games and trading away Matt Holliday. Then, of course, there are the Tampa Bay Rays, who famously jumped from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 in 2008.
[h4]Rebuilding myth[/h4]
Of the teams with the 10 worst records in 2008, only one has seen an incremental increase in wins.
[table][tr][th=""]TEAM[/th][th=""]'08[/th][th=""]'09[/th][th=""]'10[/th][th=""]'11[/th][th=""]AVG[/th][/tr][tr][td]KC[/td][td]75[/td][td]65[/td][td]67[/td][td]71[/td][td]67.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]COL[/td][td]74[/td][td]92[/td][td]83[/td][td]79[/td][td]84.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]CIN[/td][td]74[/td][td]78[/td][td]91[/td][td]79[/td][td]82.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]DET[/td][td]74[/td][td]86[/td][td]81[/td][td]95[/td][td]87.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]SF[/td][td]72[/td][td]88[/td][td]92[/td][td]86[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]ATL[/td][td]72[/td][td]86[/td][td]91[/td][td]89[/td][td]88.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]BAL[/td][td]68[/td][td]64[/td][td]66[/td][td]69[/td][td]66.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]PIT[/td][td]67[/td][td]62[/td][td]57[/td][td]72[/td][td]63.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SD[/td][td]63[/td][td]75[/td][td]90[/td][td]71[/td][td]78.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]SEA[/td][td]61[/td][td]85[/td][td]61[/td][td]67[/td][td]71.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]WAS[/td][td]59[/td][td]59[/td][td]69[/td][td]80[/td][td]69.3[/td][/tr][tr][td]AVG[/td][td]69.0[/td][td]76.4[/td][td]77.1[/td][td]78.0[/td][td]77.2[/td][/tr][/table]
These big leaps forward may look like the exception rather than the rule, but the data suggests that large, unexpected improvements are actually more common than sustained rises through the ranks. The table to the right shows the 10 worst records in baseball in 2008, and then their win totals for each of the next three seasons:
The teams that struggled the most in 2008 were significantly improved the following year, but their average win totals in the following two seasons barely improved. The Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers were able to make the leap directly from bottom-10 team to perennial contenders, with all three posting .500 or better records in each season since. The only team that is following the traditional model of incremental improvement is the Nationals.
Even looking closer at the history of teams that built from within with young talent, we don't really see this steady rise from bad to OK to contender. Tampa Bay won 67 games in 2005, 61 games in 2006 and 66 games in 2007 before surging forward to 97 victories and a World Series appearance in 2008. The Rays were stockpiling young talent during those years of losing, but they jumped straight from being terrible to being great in one season.
Baseball is a weird game, full of unexpected outcomes and things that simply couldn't have been predicted in any kind of five-year plan. Young players get hurt, bad players have good years, expected contenders fall apart and teams that were written off as also-rans make the playoffs every year. Building from within is a good strategy, but teams should also put themselves in a position to capitalize if the stars align and they end up as the season's surprise contender.
The Miami Marlins made the biggest offseason splash in attempting to upgrade a roster that won 72 games last year, but don't be surprised if one of the other 10 teams that finished with 75 or fewer wins last year makes a run at a playoff spot as well.
The unexpected contender has become so common that we need to begin to expect it. Teams go from terrible to good in one season every year, and every team in baseball should begin 2012 with some modicum of hope. The Mariners, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins might look like also-rans on paper, but don't be surprised if we're talking about whether one of these teams can actually pull off the upset in September.
Comparing the Pujols and Fielder deals.
Spoiler [+]
No free agent position player came within $50 million of the deals that Albert Pujols ($246 million, according to the union's calculation) and Prince Fielder ($214 million) got this winter.
No, check that: No free agent position player came within $100 million. There was a top 1 percent in the baseball world this winter, as well, with the middle class left to take the leftovers. The third-highest free-agent position player this winter was Jose Reyes, at $106 million, and the fourth-highest was Jimmy Rollins, whose deal of $38 million is more than $200 million less than Pujols' contract.
This makes the Pujols and Fielder deals fascinating to talent evaluators who have pored over the remains of the agreements as if conducting an autopsy.
An informal poll of 10 evaluators in the last few days -- a mix of team presidents, general managers, assistant GMs and scouts -- generated a solid consensus about whose deal was better for the respective clubs.
Five believe the Tigers' signing of Fielder was the better deal.
Three believe Pujols was the better signing.
Two believe both teams are not going to get what they paid for.
What follows are most of the individual responses:
High-ranking AL official: "I think I have to go with the Angels' signing of Pujols, only because from the marketing perspective, you understand what [Angels owner] Arte Moreno is trying to do. I think Pujols is going to have a much-bigger impact from a revenue standpoint than Prince Fielder, because the Tigers have a ceiling with how much revenue they can generate. He's not going to change their TV (revenue), in the way that Pujols will. Albert's the older player, but I think he's the bigger star, and he'll generate more money."
High-ranking NL official: "Is Pujols going to be productive for two or three more years? Longer? That, to me, is the key question. If Pujols can be productive for the next six years, then the Angels got the better deal. If not, then Detroit. The Pujols deal could be an epic disaster if he's not productive in the last five or six years of the deal, at $30 million annually. The Fielder deal is one of the craziest deals in a while. That would have been a great deal at the beginning of the offseason. Not sure why the Tigers didn't just go huge for seven years. Given the market, $26 million a year over seven years or something would have been plenty. The nine years is just inexplicable in late January."
AL talent evaluator: "Fielder's the better deal. Fielder is the younger player, and he's left-handed; he turns 28 this spring. It's not inconceivable that at the end of this deal, he could still play a couple of more years, if he's pushing for the Hall of Fame. People I know say he absolutely loves this game. He loves playing baseball. I first saw Prince when he was in the ninth grade; he could rake then, and he can still rake now."
NL executive: "I think the Tigers got the better deal. Age matters. I might change my mind after the Cabrera 3B experiment unfolds."
NL executive: "Having lived those deals, I don't think either one of them will be happy."
AL Scout: "Either deal is appealing, but I would go with the younger guy with fewer years -- Fielder."
AL official: "It's tough to tell. You have got Miguel Cabrera moving to third base, and that will dictate a lot to the value of the Fielder deal. Pujols fits better with Angels, but Trumbo has to switch positions or get traded. I think both will be good players early in the contract, but the true value will be told when they are 4-5 years into the deals."
NL evaluator: "I like the Tigers' deal for Fielder more than the Angels' deal for Pujols. Fielder is younger and more consistent while Pujols is older -- and some people question his age being as young as he maintains -- and has seen his OPS decline for four straight seasons. Fielder got less money total, fewer years, and less average annual value. Pujols brings leadership and legacy, but going forward the better player is Fielder."
AL Scout: "It's hard to like either of those deals, especially with respect to the Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez deals. However, if you're going to like one of them, I'd prefer the shorter, cheaper deal given to the younger player, to put it pretty simply, so I'd go with Detroit. I'm not sure either guy will carry any defensive value even three or four years into their respective deals, though at least Detroit can say that as Prince's deal winds down, they at least won't be paying him $30M per year as the Angels will to Pujols. Not crazy about either one, but Prince's seems to be more sensible."
For the readers: Which deal do you think is better?
• I asked a longtime agent to give me an estimate of what it would require for the Kansas City Royals to sign Eric Hosmer to a 10-year-deal, to lock him down. "I'd say $80 million to $90 million," he said.
There are a small handful of players who signed enormous contracts very early in their careers, all with small-market and mid-market teams.
1. Evan Longoria: Early in the 2008 season, Longoria signed a six-year, $17.5 million deal -- it's now worth slightly more than that because of some contractual options -- and the guaranteed salaries run through the end of the 2013 season. Here's the Tampa Bay kicker: The Rays hold club options through 2016, for $7.5 million in '14, $11 million in 2015 and $11.5 million in 2016.
2. Troy Tulowitzki: Back in 2008, he agreed to a six-year deal worth $31 million, and last winter, that was renegotiated. The Rockies shortstop is now signed through 2020 for $157.5 million.
3. Ryan Braun: The slugger's original deal was for eight years and $45 million, but rather than take the same approach as Fielder, Braun renegotiated his contract; he's signed through 2020 and will make an additional $105 million in the last five years of the contract.
• Stephen Strasburg's first 92 innings in the majors, in light of his age, have been matched by exactly one pitcher in history. A current pitcher, actually.
From John Labombarda of Elias: Players with 100 or more strikeouts, an ERA less than 2.60 and a WHIP less than 1.00 through a season in which they turned 23:
Neftali Feliz: 2009-11, 164 strikeouts, 2.55 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Strasburg: 2010-11, 116 strikeouts, 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
• Some day in 2012, Colorado Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado will be in the big leagues; it's just a question of when. The Rockies believe his approach at the plate is ready for the big leagues, but they will likely give him more time to evolve in the minors and want to see him have more success in the minors -- and more failure, as he learns to make day-to-day adjustments.
• Forget the question about whether Hanley Ramirez will be able to make the position change to third, says Andre Dawson -- the bigger question is whether he gets back to being the type of offensive player he was in the past, as he told Joe Capozzi.
Totally agree. And the lack of aggressive trade suitors tells you other teams have the same doubt.
• A whole bunch of rich guys continue to bid on the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Bill Shaikin writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Oakland Athletics remain open to signing Manny Ramirez.
2. Right on schedule, at the end of January, the Baltimore Orioles are poised to make some roster moves. It really is incredible that year after year after year, they are left to pick over the carcass of the offseason, after the other teams are done. Baltimore is talking to the St. Louis Cardinals about Kyle McClellan.
3. The Minnesota Twins are going to try Trevor Plouffe in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup.
4. Shaun Marcum is going to tweak his delivery.
5. Despite all that happened in the last week, the Tigers are not looking to trade their top third base prospect, writes Lynn Henning.
6. Roy Oswalt will meet with the Texas Rangers today, and he must answer questions in the right way.
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]
Note: I wrote the other day that, generally speaking, spending 15 percent of your payroll on one player is probably something teams would shy away from.
Q: The 15% rule is a good one, Buster, but it's not enough. The real rules are: no one player more than 15%; no two more than 25%, no three more than 33%, no four more than 40% and no six more than 50%. It's how you go about constructing a roster.
Greg, L.A.
A: Greg: Generally speaking, I'd bet there are a whole lot of general managers who agree with you.
No, check that: No free agent position player came within $100 million. There was a top 1 percent in the baseball world this winter, as well, with the middle class left to take the leftovers. The third-highest free-agent position player this winter was Jose Reyes, at $106 million, and the fourth-highest was Jimmy Rollins, whose deal of $38 million is more than $200 million less than Pujols' contract.
This makes the Pujols and Fielder deals fascinating to talent evaluators who have pored over the remains of the agreements as if conducting an autopsy.
An informal poll of 10 evaluators in the last few days -- a mix of team presidents, general managers, assistant GMs and scouts -- generated a solid consensus about whose deal was better for the respective clubs.
Five believe the Tigers' signing of Fielder was the better deal.
Three believe Pujols was the better signing.
Two believe both teams are not going to get what they paid for.
What follows are most of the individual responses:
High-ranking AL official: "I think I have to go with the Angels' signing of Pujols, only because from the marketing perspective, you understand what [Angels owner] Arte Moreno is trying to do. I think Pujols is going to have a much-bigger impact from a revenue standpoint than Prince Fielder, because the Tigers have a ceiling with how much revenue they can generate. He's not going to change their TV (revenue), in the way that Pujols will. Albert's the older player, but I think he's the bigger star, and he'll generate more money."
High-ranking NL official: "Is Pujols going to be productive for two or three more years? Longer? That, to me, is the key question. If Pujols can be productive for the next six years, then the Angels got the better deal. If not, then Detroit. The Pujols deal could be an epic disaster if he's not productive in the last five or six years of the deal, at $30 million annually. The Fielder deal is one of the craziest deals in a while. That would have been a great deal at the beginning of the offseason. Not sure why the Tigers didn't just go huge for seven years. Given the market, $26 million a year over seven years or something would have been plenty. The nine years is just inexplicable in late January."
AL talent evaluator: "Fielder's the better deal. Fielder is the younger player, and he's left-handed; he turns 28 this spring. It's not inconceivable that at the end of this deal, he could still play a couple of more years, if he's pushing for the Hall of Fame. People I know say he absolutely loves this game. He loves playing baseball. I first saw Prince when he was in the ninth grade; he could rake then, and he can still rake now."
NL executive: "I think the Tigers got the better deal. Age matters. I might change my mind after the Cabrera 3B experiment unfolds."
NL executive: "Having lived those deals, I don't think either one of them will be happy."
AL Scout: "Either deal is appealing, but I would go with the younger guy with fewer years -- Fielder."
AL official: "It's tough to tell. You have got Miguel Cabrera moving to third base, and that will dictate a lot to the value of the Fielder deal. Pujols fits better with Angels, but Trumbo has to switch positions or get traded. I think both will be good players early in the contract, but the true value will be told when they are 4-5 years into the deals."
NL evaluator: "I like the Tigers' deal for Fielder more than the Angels' deal for Pujols. Fielder is younger and more consistent while Pujols is older -- and some people question his age being as young as he maintains -- and has seen his OPS decline for four straight seasons. Fielder got less money total, fewer years, and less average annual value. Pujols brings leadership and legacy, but going forward the better player is Fielder."
AL Scout: "It's hard to like either of those deals, especially with respect to the Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez deals. However, if you're going to like one of them, I'd prefer the shorter, cheaper deal given to the younger player, to put it pretty simply, so I'd go with Detroit. I'm not sure either guy will carry any defensive value even three or four years into their respective deals, though at least Detroit can say that as Prince's deal winds down, they at least won't be paying him $30M per year as the Angels will to Pujols. Not crazy about either one, but Prince's seems to be more sensible."
For the readers: Which deal do you think is better?
• I asked a longtime agent to give me an estimate of what it would require for the Kansas City Royals to sign Eric Hosmer to a 10-year-deal, to lock him down. "I'd say $80 million to $90 million," he said.
There are a small handful of players who signed enormous contracts very early in their careers, all with small-market and mid-market teams.
1. Evan Longoria: Early in the 2008 season, Longoria signed a six-year, $17.5 million deal -- it's now worth slightly more than that because of some contractual options -- and the guaranteed salaries run through the end of the 2013 season. Here's the Tampa Bay kicker: The Rays hold club options through 2016, for $7.5 million in '14, $11 million in 2015 and $11.5 million in 2016.
2. Troy Tulowitzki: Back in 2008, he agreed to a six-year deal worth $31 million, and last winter, that was renegotiated. The Rockies shortstop is now signed through 2020 for $157.5 million.
3. Ryan Braun: The slugger's original deal was for eight years and $45 million, but rather than take the same approach as Fielder, Braun renegotiated his contract; he's signed through 2020 and will make an additional $105 million in the last five years of the contract.
• Stephen Strasburg's first 92 innings in the majors, in light of his age, have been matched by exactly one pitcher in history. A current pitcher, actually.
From John Labombarda of Elias: Players with 100 or more strikeouts, an ERA less than 2.60 and a WHIP less than 1.00 through a season in which they turned 23:
Neftali Feliz: 2009-11, 164 strikeouts, 2.55 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Strasburg: 2010-11, 116 strikeouts, 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
• Some day in 2012, Colorado Rockies third base prospect Nolan Arenado will be in the big leagues; it's just a question of when. The Rockies believe his approach at the plate is ready for the big leagues, but they will likely give him more time to evolve in the minors and want to see him have more success in the minors -- and more failure, as he learns to make day-to-day adjustments.
• Forget the question about whether Hanley Ramirez will be able to make the position change to third, says Andre Dawson -- the bigger question is whether he gets back to being the type of offensive player he was in the past, as he told Joe Capozzi.
Totally agree. And the lack of aggressive trade suitors tells you other teams have the same doubt.
• A whole bunch of rich guys continue to bid on the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Bill Shaikin writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Oakland Athletics remain open to signing Manny Ramirez.
2. Right on schedule, at the end of January, the Baltimore Orioles are poised to make some roster moves. It really is incredible that year after year after year, they are left to pick over the carcass of the offseason, after the other teams are done. Baltimore is talking to the St. Louis Cardinals about Kyle McClellan.
3. The Minnesota Twins are going to try Trevor Plouffe in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup.
4. Shaun Marcum is going to tweak his delivery.
5. Despite all that happened in the last week, the Tigers are not looking to trade their top third base prospect, writes Lynn Henning.
6. Roy Oswalt will meet with the Texas Rangers today, and he must answer questions in the right way.
[h3]From The Mailbag[/h3]
Note: I wrote the other day that, generally speaking, spending 15 percent of your payroll on one player is probably something teams would shy away from.
Q: The 15% rule is a good one, Buster, but it's not enough. The real rules are: no one player more than 15%; no two more than 25%, no three more than 33%, no four more than 40% and no six more than 50%. It's how you go about constructing a roster.
Greg, L.A.
A: Greg: Generally speaking, I'd bet there are a whole lot of general managers who agree with you.
The shifting landscape in baseball.
Spoiler [+]
The other day, a smart baseball official noted the shifting landscape in the game. "It's becoming more and more difficult to find good everyday position players," he said. "It used to be that good young pitching was harder to come by, but now I think it's getting more difficult to find the position player who can do everything to stay in the lineup every day."
Such as hitting effectively, against both right-handers and left-handers. Such as playing sound defense (unless you happen to be an AL designated hitter). Such as remaining healthy.
In other words, the volume of prospects projected to play 150 games and have 600 plate appearances annually is diminishing. This is why the ability of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to be in the lineup every day was one of the major selling points of their free agency, and why the Seattle Mariners operated in the face of conventional wisdom and traded a young starting pitcher with No. 1-type stuff -- Michael Pineda -- for Jesus Montero, who is expected to be a strong everyday offensive player at catcher or designated hitter.
None of this is happening overnight. General managers still would give their pinkies for Clayton Kershaw. But since Major League Baseball and the players' association got serious about drug testing in 2006, run production has decreased, good pitching is more easily acquired and elite power hitters have become more scarce. In 2011, two hitters reached 40 homers -- Jose Bautista, with 43, and Curtis Granderson, with 41. In 2005, there were nine. In 2001, a time generally regarded as the pinnacle of the steroids era, there were 12.
The increasingly desperate search for offense has caused some teams to focus on flexibility -- on developing and finding cheaper players who can man multiple positions and help create favorable matchups on a given day. The Tampa Bay Rays are regarded as the masters of this, and Ben Zobrist could be the poster child of this mastery. In 2010, he played six positions, helping to facilitate lineups that could include everyone from Matt Joyce to Sean Rodriguez to Reid Brignac. The other day, the Rays signed Jeff Keppinger because of his ability to mash left-handed pitching and play multiple infield positions.
Some of it is because of improved medicine: Teams use the disabled list more often to treat and rest players in a way they did not decades ago. Some of the shift is through the rise in the use of sabermetrics, in how teams evaluate and implement those favorable matchups -- much in the same way that relievers are now used.
You can track a dramatic change in the way starting pitchers and relievers are used through the number of complete games. For example, 11 NL pitchers had 13 or more complete games in 1968; in 2011, Roy Halladay led the NL with eight complete games.
There is a more gradual shift in the number of near iron men, but it's there, too.
In the 10-team National League of 1968, 24 players played in 150 or more games. The Chicago Cubs had six regulars who posted at least 150 games:
Ernie Banks, 150
Glenn Beckert, 155
Randy Hundley, 160 (Yes, he was the catcher)
Don Kessinger, 160
Ron Santo, 162
Billy Williams, 163
By comparison, center fielder Adolfo Phillips was a slacker, playing in 143 games.
In the 16-team National League last year, just 30 players played in at least 150 games. The 14-team American League, with the built-in advantage of being able to regularly rest everyday guys with the DH, had 32 players who played in 150 or more games; in 1968, there were 27 players with 150 or more games played.
What does it all mean? Well, the market value of rock-solid position players appears to be climbing, which the Pittsburgh Pirates may find out if failed contract negotiations nudge them into trading Andrew McCutchen. And increasingly, you may see teams follow the Rays' example in coveting versatile players and evaluating day by day the best way to use them.
• Lots of good wishes for Brooks Robinson, who was hurt in a fall on Saturday, Joe Capozzi writes. He broke two bones, writes Dan Connolly.
• More problems may come for other players guilty of identity fraud.
• Paul Konerko told it like it is for the White Sox faithful. From the story:
Such as hitting effectively, against both right-handers and left-handers. Such as playing sound defense (unless you happen to be an AL designated hitter). Such as remaining healthy.
In other words, the volume of prospects projected to play 150 games and have 600 plate appearances annually is diminishing. This is why the ability of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to be in the lineup every day was one of the major selling points of their free agency, and why the Seattle Mariners operated in the face of conventional wisdom and traded a young starting pitcher with No. 1-type stuff -- Michael Pineda -- for Jesus Montero, who is expected to be a strong everyday offensive player at catcher or designated hitter.
None of this is happening overnight. General managers still would give their pinkies for Clayton Kershaw. But since Major League Baseball and the players' association got serious about drug testing in 2006, run production has decreased, good pitching is more easily acquired and elite power hitters have become more scarce. In 2011, two hitters reached 40 homers -- Jose Bautista, with 43, and Curtis Granderson, with 41. In 2005, there were nine. In 2001, a time generally regarded as the pinnacle of the steroids era, there were 12.
The increasingly desperate search for offense has caused some teams to focus on flexibility -- on developing and finding cheaper players who can man multiple positions and help create favorable matchups on a given day. The Tampa Bay Rays are regarded as the masters of this, and Ben Zobrist could be the poster child of this mastery. In 2010, he played six positions, helping to facilitate lineups that could include everyone from Matt Joyce to Sean Rodriguez to Reid Brignac. The other day, the Rays signed Jeff Keppinger because of his ability to mash left-handed pitching and play multiple infield positions.
Some of it is because of improved medicine: Teams use the disabled list more often to treat and rest players in a way they did not decades ago. Some of the shift is through the rise in the use of sabermetrics, in how teams evaluate and implement those favorable matchups -- much in the same way that relievers are now used.
You can track a dramatic change in the way starting pitchers and relievers are used through the number of complete games. For example, 11 NL pitchers had 13 or more complete games in 1968; in 2011, Roy Halladay led the NL with eight complete games.
There is a more gradual shift in the number of near iron men, but it's there, too.
In the 10-team National League of 1968, 24 players played in 150 or more games. The Chicago Cubs had six regulars who posted at least 150 games:
Ernie Banks, 150
Glenn Beckert, 155
Randy Hundley, 160 (Yes, he was the catcher)
Don Kessinger, 160
Ron Santo, 162
Billy Williams, 163
By comparison, center fielder Adolfo Phillips was a slacker, playing in 143 games.
In the 16-team National League last year, just 30 players played in at least 150 games. The 14-team American League, with the built-in advantage of being able to regularly rest everyday guys with the DH, had 32 players who played in 150 or more games; in 1968, there were 27 players with 150 or more games played.
What does it all mean? Well, the market value of rock-solid position players appears to be climbing, which the Pittsburgh Pirates may find out if failed contract negotiations nudge them into trading Andrew McCutchen. And increasingly, you may see teams follow the Rays' example in coveting versatile players and evaluating day by day the best way to use them.
• Lots of good wishes for Brooks Robinson, who was hurt in a fall on Saturday, Joe Capozzi writes. He broke two bones, writes Dan Connolly.
• More problems may come for other players guilty of identity fraud.
• Paul Konerko told it like it is for the White Sox faithful. From the story:
• The bottom line in baseball: Big TV money buys big stars, writes Bill Lubinger.
• Prince Fielder doesn't let his emotions get the best of him anymore, writes Carlos Monarrez. Nolan Ryan says the Tigers are a force to be dealt with.
Little Leaguers recall an intimidating Prince Fielder at age 9.
• The great debate about Miguel Cabrera has begun, writes Bob Wojnowski.
• Dodgers fans should be careful what they wish for with the incoming owner, writes T.J. Simers.
I'm not sure I agree with T.J. If the next owner has the money to win the bidding that may well be close to $2 billion -- and word is that the leading bidders are built mostly on one big-money guy -- that can't be anything but an improvement over the current situation. There's nowhere to go but up.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Twins' 2011 payroll could be an aberration, says the owner.
2. Dealing away Jesus Montero could prove costly for the Yankees in the long run, writes Joel Sherman.
3. Josh Willingham is ready to play right field for the Twins.
4. Hal McCoy grades Walt Jocketty on his offseason moves.
5. The Cardinals are in the running for Roy Oswalt. The Rangers are scheduled to meet with him Monday.
Texas' interest, of course, is rooted in Oswalt's past relationship with Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux from their days with the Houston Astros.
6. Matt Harrison is focused on staying in the rotation. As I've written here before: Harrison is among the most underrated starters in the AL. He had a 3.80 ERA pitching in one of the toughest home parks (for pitchers) in the majors and a 2.99 ERA on the road.
7. The Rockies might install a humidor for their Triple-A team.
8. Edwin Jackson is trying to decide whether to sign with the Orioles. The upside: Baltimore may well have offered the most money. The downside: It would be tough sledding in the next few years for Jackson, pitching in a small ballpark for a team that hasn't had a winning record in a long time.
9. The Rays have pitching to deal.
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