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pretty sure it's the yanks, if the dodgers are 2 billion i feel like the yanks would be 20 million...well at least 4-5 billion.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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pretty sure it's the yanks, if the dodgers are 2 billion i feel like the yanks would be 20 million...well at least 4-5 billion.
Projecting the National League.
Overrating Josh Johnson.
Projecting the American League.
Jeff Samardzija a good rotation gamble.
Spoiler [+]
Using the ZiPS projection system, a Monte Carlo simulation and a few scary-sounding bits of math stuff, the 2012 season was simmed a million times to see which teams projected to come out on top.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and 5th-percentile projected win totals, which is essentially a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams and shred all the expectations.
We have already projected the American League, and today we tackle the Senior Circuit.
[h3]National League East[/h3]
The NL East looks stronger than it has in years, as four teams have a realistic shot at winning the division. The Philadelphia Phillies enter another year as the favorite but never by so small a margin, thanks to the team starting to show its age as the injuries pile up. Philadelphia did just win 102 games last year and the biggest reason, an amazing rotation, remains mostly intact. The Phillies may limp to October, but having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can paper over a lot of offensive faults.
The Atlanta Braves' pitching depth has recently taken some hits with Arodys Vizcaino taking his 100 mph to the operating table for Tommy John surgery and the ongoing injury issues of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. They still retain a solid rotation, though with less margin for error, but also get a likely bounce from Jason Heyward and a full year of Michael Bourn, a significant upgrade compared to the departed Nate McLouth.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals were two of the most aggressive teams in baseball in the offseason, something that would be surprising to read three or four years ago. The Marlins landed one of the big prizes, Jose Reyes, giving them the best left side of the infield in baseball. Heath Bell is a significant upgrade in the pen to Whatshisname, and the team is only a healthy Josh Johnson season from making the playoffs. Washington missed out on the names it was targeting in free agency, but Gio Gonzalez -- who was acquired via trade -- should be solid, and Bryce Harper's limitless potential will arrive on stage imminently.
The New York Mets will be eliminated from the playoffs weeks ahead of anyone else in the division, but that's not to say they don't have interesting storylines. They still won't be good, but Johan Santana having a solid return and Lucas Duda proving 2011's performance wasn't a fluke could keep the team from becoming a doormat. Settling the legal issues surrounding the team, even if expensive, removes a gigantic distraction.
[h4]National League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Philadelphia Phillies
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
34.2%
[/td][td]
28.0%
[/td][td]
62.2%
[/td][td]
6.4%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Atlanta Braves
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
28.9%
[/td][td]
28.1%
[/td][td]
57.0%
[/td][td]
5.8%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Miami Marlins
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
24.8%
[/td][td]
27.1%
[/td][td]
51.9%
[/td][td]
5.2%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Washington Nationals
[/td][td]
84
[/td][td]
78
[/td][td]
6
[/td][td]
11.4%
[/td][td]
19.5%
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
3.0%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Mets
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
18
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
58
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League Central[/h3]
The Central looks much like it did in 2012, minus a couple of superstar first basemen. The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals both made some moves to soften some of the blow of losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds -- one of the more disappointing teams in 2011 -- cashed in some of their prospects for Mat Latos. The divisional race is tight enough that it may come down to which team's the healthiest.
The Chicago Cubs have figured out the best way to avoid failing to meet expectations is to enter the season without any. I mean that in the best possible way. Theo Epstein was the biggest non-player acquisition in baseball for some time and has a clean slate to build the Cubs into serious contenders. But not in 2012. The Pittsburgh Pirates made some noise for a month or so last season, but while the team has a direction for the first time in decades, they're not yet at their destination.
The Houston Astros will play 162 games of baseball this year. They'll win some of them.
[h4]National League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Cincinnati Reds
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
36.5%
[/td][td]
14.9%
[/td][td]
51.4%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
14.7%
[/td][td]
45.6%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
71
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
St. Louis Cardinals
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
27.0%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
41.0%
[/td][td]
4.0%
[/td][td]
98
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago Cubs
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
6.6%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
65
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Pittsburgh Pirates
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
2.2%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Houston Astros
[/td][td]
59
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
28
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
49
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League West[/h3]
The NL West looks to be a three-team fight between the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. Arizona was a surprise in 2011, but it has continued to improve the team with the offseason addition of Trevor Cahill. Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley are on the way, either to make the rotation better in the near future or as parts of lucrative trades.
San Francisco missed a lot of opportunities this offseason, but the Giants at least have the potential to improve offensively and still boast an amazing 1-2-3 punch of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. There's enough talent on the roster top 90 wins. The Rockies are nearly forgotten after a 73-win 2011, but they still have impressive top-shelf talent, and Drew Pomeranz should contribute very quickly. If Nolan Arenado continues to plow his way through the minors, he would represent a de facto major midseason acquisition for Colorado.
Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can take a team a long way, but even their combined 18 wins above replacement last year got the Los Angeles Dodgers to only 82 wins. The supporting cast around those two remains very weak as the Dodgers spent $45 million this offseason to bring in what amounts to a bevy of role players who were good five or six years ago. Kenley Jansen will muscle the closer job from Javy Guerra some time this season and be one of the best in baseball, but other than that, the Dodgers need everything to go right to be competitive.
The San Diego Padres added some solid prospects to the team, but none are likely to star in 2012. The loss of Latos, easily the best pitcher in a somewhat overrated rotation, hurts the team in the short term, and bringing in Carlos Quentin is unlikely to be enough to get the team back above .500.
[h4]National League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Arizona Diamondbacks
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
37.2%
[/td][td]
14.6%
[/td][td]
51.8%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Francisco Giants
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
31.5%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
45.5%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
99
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Colorado Rockies
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
25.3%
[/td][td]
13.5%
[/td][td]
38.8%
[/td][td]
3.8%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Diego Padres
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.7%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.9%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Dodgers
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
15
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
3.4%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and 5th-percentile projected win totals, which is essentially a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams and shred all the expectations.
We have already projected the American League, and today we tackle the Senior Circuit.
[h3]National League East[/h3]
The NL East looks stronger than it has in years, as four teams have a realistic shot at winning the division. The Philadelphia Phillies enter another year as the favorite but never by so small a margin, thanks to the team starting to show its age as the injuries pile up. Philadelphia did just win 102 games last year and the biggest reason, an amazing rotation, remains mostly intact. The Phillies may limp to October, but having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can paper over a lot of offensive faults.
The Atlanta Braves' pitching depth has recently taken some hits with Arodys Vizcaino taking his 100 mph to the operating table for Tommy John surgery and the ongoing injury issues of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. They still retain a solid rotation, though with less margin for error, but also get a likely bounce from Jason Heyward and a full year of Michael Bourn, a significant upgrade compared to the departed Nate McLouth.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals were two of the most aggressive teams in baseball in the offseason, something that would be surprising to read three or four years ago. The Marlins landed one of the big prizes, Jose Reyes, giving them the best left side of the infield in baseball. Heath Bell is a significant upgrade in the pen to Whatshisname, and the team is only a healthy Josh Johnson season from making the playoffs. Washington missed out on the names it was targeting in free agency, but Gio Gonzalez -- who was acquired via trade -- should be solid, and Bryce Harper's limitless potential will arrive on stage imminently.
The New York Mets will be eliminated from the playoffs weeks ahead of anyone else in the division, but that's not to say they don't have interesting storylines. They still won't be good, but Johan Santana having a solid return and Lucas Duda proving 2011's performance wasn't a fluke could keep the team from becoming a doormat. Settling the legal issues surrounding the team, even if expensive, removes a gigantic distraction.
[h4]National League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Philadelphia Phillies
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
34.2%
[/td][td]
28.0%
[/td][td]
62.2%
[/td][td]
6.4%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Atlanta Braves
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
28.9%
[/td][td]
28.1%
[/td][td]
57.0%
[/td][td]
5.8%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Miami Marlins
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
24.8%
[/td][td]
27.1%
[/td][td]
51.9%
[/td][td]
5.2%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Washington Nationals
[/td][td]
84
[/td][td]
78
[/td][td]
6
[/td][td]
11.4%
[/td][td]
19.5%
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
3.0%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Mets
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
18
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
58
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League Central[/h3]
The Central looks much like it did in 2012, minus a couple of superstar first basemen. The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals both made some moves to soften some of the blow of losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds -- one of the more disappointing teams in 2011 -- cashed in some of their prospects for Mat Latos. The divisional race is tight enough that it may come down to which team's the healthiest.
The Chicago Cubs have figured out the best way to avoid failing to meet expectations is to enter the season without any. I mean that in the best possible way. Theo Epstein was the biggest non-player acquisition in baseball for some time and has a clean slate to build the Cubs into serious contenders. But not in 2012. The Pittsburgh Pirates made some noise for a month or so last season, but while the team has a direction for the first time in decades, they're not yet at their destination.
The Houston Astros will play 162 games of baseball this year. They'll win some of them.
[h4]National League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Cincinnati Reds
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
36.5%
[/td][td]
14.9%
[/td][td]
51.4%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
14.7%
[/td][td]
45.6%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
71
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
St. Louis Cardinals
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
27.0%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
41.0%
[/td][td]
4.0%
[/td][td]
98
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago Cubs
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
6.6%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
65
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Pittsburgh Pirates
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
2.2%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Houston Astros
[/td][td]
59
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
28
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
49
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League West[/h3]
The NL West looks to be a three-team fight between the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. Arizona was a surprise in 2011, but it has continued to improve the team with the offseason addition of Trevor Cahill. Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley are on the way, either to make the rotation better in the near future or as parts of lucrative trades.
San Francisco missed a lot of opportunities this offseason, but the Giants at least have the potential to improve offensively and still boast an amazing 1-2-3 punch of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. There's enough talent on the roster top 90 wins. The Rockies are nearly forgotten after a 73-win 2011, but they still have impressive top-shelf talent, and Drew Pomeranz should contribute very quickly. If Nolan Arenado continues to plow his way through the minors, he would represent a de facto major midseason acquisition for Colorado.
Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can take a team a long way, but even their combined 18 wins above replacement last year got the Los Angeles Dodgers to only 82 wins. The supporting cast around those two remains very weak as the Dodgers spent $45 million this offseason to bring in what amounts to a bevy of role players who were good five or six years ago. Kenley Jansen will muscle the closer job from Javy Guerra some time this season and be one of the best in baseball, but other than that, the Dodgers need everything to go right to be competitive.
The San Diego Padres added some solid prospects to the team, but none are likely to star in 2012. The loss of Latos, easily the best pitcher in a somewhat overrated rotation, hurts the team in the short term, and bringing in Carlos Quentin is unlikely to be enough to get the team back above .500.
[h4]National League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Arizona Diamondbacks
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
37.2%
[/td][td]
14.6%
[/td][td]
51.8%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Francisco Giants
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
31.5%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
45.5%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
99
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Colorado Rockies
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
25.3%
[/td][td]
13.5%
[/td][td]
38.8%
[/td][td]
3.8%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Diego Padres
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.7%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.9%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Dodgers
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
15
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
3.4%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Overrating Josh Johnson.
Spoiler [+]
On today's list of the No. 26-50 players in baseball according to the ESPN 500, Miami Marlins ace Josh Johnson came in at No. 30, one spot behind fellow sometimes-injured starter Chris Carpenter. It's easy to see why Johnson (and Carpenter, for that matter) ranked so highly, as they are dominating starters when they take the mound.
Johnson's career ERA- is 70, meaning that he's prevented runs at a rate 30 percent better than an average pitcher during that time. To put that in perspective, Roy Halladay's career ERA- is 71. On a per-inning basis, Johnson stacks up favorably against any pitcher in the game.
However, while Johnson's quality level is extremely high, his quantity of innings pitched is relatively low. He's managed just 725 innings across parts of seven seasons and has made more than 14 starts in a season just three times in his career. Persistent health problems have been an issue that Johnson just hasn't been able to shake, and given his lingering shoulder problems that limited him to just 60 innings pitched last year, the Marlins need to have muted expectations for how often he'll be able to take the hill in 2012.
That realization is a large part of the reason that the team aggressively pursued Mark Buehrle as a free agent. Buehrle might be the furthest thing from Johnson currently pitching in the game today -- a soft-tossing left-hander who rarely gets a strikeout but who is a mortal lock to take the hill every fifth day and pitch deep into the ballgame. Buehrle has reached the 200-inning mark in an astounding 11 consecutive seasons and has never once been on the disabled list. In fact, he's never missed a start for any reason since being called up to the big leagues in 2000. And yet, the ironman among current starting pitchers was rated only 134th by the voters in the ESPN 500, sliding in between Aramis Ramirez and John Danks.
So, we know that the voters prefer quality over quantity in their starting pitchers, but now that the Marlins have both, which one is likely to provide more value for Miami in 2012?
These kinds of situations are the reason behind statistics like wins above replacement, as baseball needed a way to measure the value of a player in relation to who might end up taking his place in case of an injury. Because WAR is a counting stat, rather than something like ERA, it allows us to compare the value of excellent performances in limited playing quantities against players who aren't as valuable on a per-game basis but are more reliable and keep a team from having to turn to a replacement level player to fill a hole.
Considering Johnson's many injuries since debuting in 2006 -- Buehrle has thrown 540 more innnings during that time -- you might expect that Buehrle would have a massive advantage in WAR while both have been big league starters, but it's actually fairly close -- 20.8 for Buehrle, 18.5 for Johnson. Using a straight average, Buehrle has averaged 3.5 WAR per season in the last six years, while Johnson has come in at 3.1. They've gotten there very different ways, but the end results suggest that they've been similarly valuable to their respective franchises.
However, the ESPN 500 is about 2012 performance, and a straight average might underrepresent Johnson's value since it includes entire years where he barely pitched while recovering from surgery. The potential value he represents if he stays healthy -- as he did in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 6.0 WAR per season and was the third-best pitcher in the National League -- far surpasses what the Marlins could reasonably expect from Buehrle going forward.
Buehrle can reasonably expect to be worth about 3.5 WAR this season, as he's been between 3.4 and 4.6 in every season since 2007 and is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game today. How many innings would Johnson have to throw to exceed that total? If you take Johnson's career WAR of 18.6 and divide it by his 725 innings pitched, you get .025 WAR per inning. To exceed 3.5 WAR, Johnson would have to throw 138 innings this season. Interestingly enough, Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections have Johnson pegged for 129 innings this year, suggesting that Buehrle and Johnson may end up with very similar values for 2012.
While it's understandable that the voters preferred upside instead of boring old durability, the respective histories of these two pitchers suggest that the Marlins' best pitcher this season might not be Josh Johnson after all. Perhaps voters underestimated just how valuable the Marlins' new workhorse can really be.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Johnson's career ERA- is 70, meaning that he's prevented runs at a rate 30 percent better than an average pitcher during that time. To put that in perspective, Roy Halladay's career ERA- is 71. On a per-inning basis, Johnson stacks up favorably against any pitcher in the game.
However, while Johnson's quality level is extremely high, his quantity of innings pitched is relatively low. He's managed just 725 innings across parts of seven seasons and has made more than 14 starts in a season just three times in his career. Persistent health problems have been an issue that Johnson just hasn't been able to shake, and given his lingering shoulder problems that limited him to just 60 innings pitched last year, the Marlins need to have muted expectations for how often he'll be able to take the hill in 2012.
That realization is a large part of the reason that the team aggressively pursued Mark Buehrle as a free agent. Buehrle might be the furthest thing from Johnson currently pitching in the game today -- a soft-tossing left-hander who rarely gets a strikeout but who is a mortal lock to take the hill every fifth day and pitch deep into the ballgame. Buehrle has reached the 200-inning mark in an astounding 11 consecutive seasons and has never once been on the disabled list. In fact, he's never missed a start for any reason since being called up to the big leagues in 2000. And yet, the ironman among current starting pitchers was rated only 134th by the voters in the ESPN 500, sliding in between Aramis Ramirez and John Danks.
So, we know that the voters prefer quality over quantity in their starting pitchers, but now that the Marlins have both, which one is likely to provide more value for Miami in 2012?
These kinds of situations are the reason behind statistics like wins above replacement, as baseball needed a way to measure the value of a player in relation to who might end up taking his place in case of an injury. Because WAR is a counting stat, rather than something like ERA, it allows us to compare the value of excellent performances in limited playing quantities against players who aren't as valuable on a per-game basis but are more reliable and keep a team from having to turn to a replacement level player to fill a hole.
Considering Johnson's many injuries since debuting in 2006 -- Buehrle has thrown 540 more innnings during that time -- you might expect that Buehrle would have a massive advantage in WAR while both have been big league starters, but it's actually fairly close -- 20.8 for Buehrle, 18.5 for Johnson. Using a straight average, Buehrle has averaged 3.5 WAR per season in the last six years, while Johnson has come in at 3.1. They've gotten there very different ways, but the end results suggest that they've been similarly valuable to their respective franchises.
However, the ESPN 500 is about 2012 performance, and a straight average might underrepresent Johnson's value since it includes entire years where he barely pitched while recovering from surgery. The potential value he represents if he stays healthy -- as he did in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 6.0 WAR per season and was the third-best pitcher in the National League -- far surpasses what the Marlins could reasonably expect from Buehrle going forward.
Buehrle can reasonably expect to be worth about 3.5 WAR this season, as he's been between 3.4 and 4.6 in every season since 2007 and is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game today. How many innings would Johnson have to throw to exceed that total? If you take Johnson's career WAR of 18.6 and divide it by his 725 innings pitched, you get .025 WAR per inning. To exceed 3.5 WAR, Johnson would have to throw 138 innings this season. Interestingly enough, Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections have Johnson pegged for 129 innings this year, suggesting that Buehrle and Johnson may end up with very similar values for 2012.
While it's understandable that the voters preferred upside instead of boring old durability, the respective histories of these two pitchers suggest that the Marlins' best pitcher this season might not be Josh Johnson after all. Perhaps voters underestimated just how valuable the Marlins' new workhorse can really be.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Projecting the American League.
Spoiler [+]
Using the ZiPS projection system, a Monte Carlo simulation and a few scary-sounding bits of math stuff, the 2012 season was simmed a million times to see which teams projected to come out on top.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and fifth-percentile projected win totals, which is basically a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams shred all the expectations.
Today, we'll project and analyze the American League divisions. On Friday, we'll tackle the National League.
[h3]American League East[/h3]
The AL East should look quite similar to what we've seen in recent seasons: a three-way battle between three of the elite teams, the Toronto Blue Jays hanging around .500 and the Baltimore Orioles hoping that baseball's next structural change doesn't involve a soccer-style relegation. Michael Pineda's apparent exchange of mph on his fastball for inches on his waist notwithstanding, the New York Yankees addressed the bottom-of-the-rotation weakness more aggressively than last season. While the team is old, the Yankees have a strong case for being the best team in the division.
In Boston, Andrew Bailey is a suitable replacement for Jonathan Papelbon, but Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney are likely complementary players at best. Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Rays actually spent more in the free-agent market this winter than either the Boston Red Sox or Yankees did. And while he's not going to be the force he was several years ago, Carlos Pena is not much of a risk at $7 million.
Toronto continues to have the misfortune of playing in the AL East. Big, long-awaited improvements from Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil could make the Jays relevant, but it's a very tough division to play in. In the NL Central, I'd be tempted to call Toronto the favorite, but not here. The O's, after having learned in 2011 that you can't simply declare yourselves a .500 team, are mostly looking for upside here, such as a recovered Brian Matusz. They'll have a high pick in the 2013 draft.
[h4]American League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
48.1%
[/td][td]
30.8%
[/td][td]
78.9%
[/td][td]
8.3%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Boston Red Sox
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
4
[/td][td]
25.9%
[/td][td]
35.2%
[/td][td]
61.1%
[/td][td]
6.2%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
5
[/td][td]
21.6%
[/td][td]
33.8%
[/td][td]
55.4%
[/td][td]
5.6%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
4.3%
[/td][td]
13.9%
[/td][td]
18.2%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Baltimore Orioles
[/td][td]
67
[/td][td]
95
[/td][td]
26
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
0.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
83
[/td][td]
54
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League Central[/h3]
The AL Central looks like it may be the worst race in baseball, with computers and flesh-and-blood alike seeing the Detroit Tigers as the overwhelming favorite. The Tigers aren't so deep that a poorly placed injury or two won't leave an opening for one of the other teams, but the smart money is on them. The Cleveland Indians competed last year ahead of schedule, and they have an outside shot of giving the Tigers a run. Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson are a solid 1-2, and there's enough upside in players like Grady Sizemore (should he ever get healthy) to make them the best bet to take advantage if the Tigers stumble.
The Chicago White Sox continue to walk the awkward line between rebuilding and competing, now doing neither all that well. While the trades of Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin initially suggested the team was going the rebuilding route, they also inked John Danks to a long-term contract. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios don't bounce back, the White Sox probably win 75 games and the GM in charge of the White Sox next offseason won't be current GM Kenny Williams.
The Kansas City Royals are regularly graduating players to the majors from their farm system, and while their offense looks better than it has in a long time, the pitching hasn't improved at the same rate and the rotation is not yet a positive contributor. The Minnesota Twins have a similar lack of pitching, and even if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau make big comebacks, their starting pitching isn't much better than Kansas City's.
[h4]American League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Detroit Tigers
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
71
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
71.0%
[/td][td]
7.8%
[/td][td]
78.8%
[/td][td]
8.1%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Cleveland Indians
[/td][td]
82
[/td][td]
80
[/td][td]
9
[/td][td]
17.8%
[/td][td]
12.9%
[/td][td]
30.7%
[/td][td]
2.9%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
68
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago White Sox
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
6.7%
[/td][td]
5.9%
[/td][td]
12.6%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
17
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.5%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Minnesota Twins
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
1.2%
[/td][td]
1.3%
[/td][td]
2.5%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
56
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League West[/h3]
The AL West is all Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, leaving little opening for either the Seattle Mariners or the rebuilding Oakland Athletics to be competitive this year. The Angels may worry about the end of the blockbuster Albert Pujols contract, but at this point, he's an MVP candidate, and that C.J. Wilson fellow ain't too shabby. The Rangers replaced Wilson with the best Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher to come overseas, and were good enough to earn their two World Series trips, even if neither ended with a Ranger proclaiming his upcoming trip to Disney World.
Seattle and Oakland don't have the firepower to compete with the teams at the top of their division, and they'll spend their seasons continuing to build for the future. Oakland's offense is a ragtag bunch, similar to that in an '80s movie (without a happy ending), but Tom Milone and Brad Peacock will provide pleasant surprises to a pretty decent rotation.
Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero are both in Seattle's lineup, and the Mariners continuing to find the offense to match their stable of pitching prospects will put the team back on the road to relevance, but not in 2012.
[h4]American League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Texas Rangers
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
59.4%
[/td][td]
21.9%
[/td][td]
81.3%
[/td][td]
8.6%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Angels
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
3
[/td][td]
39.3%
[/td][td]
28.8%
[/td][td]
68.1%
[/td][td]
7.0%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Seattle Mariners
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
0.9%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
57
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Oakland Athletics
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
23
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
1.4%
[/td][td]
1.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
59
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and fifth-percentile projected win totals, which is basically a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams shred all the expectations.
Today, we'll project and analyze the American League divisions. On Friday, we'll tackle the National League.
[h3]American League East[/h3]
The AL East should look quite similar to what we've seen in recent seasons: a three-way battle between three of the elite teams, the Toronto Blue Jays hanging around .500 and the Baltimore Orioles hoping that baseball's next structural change doesn't involve a soccer-style relegation. Michael Pineda's apparent exchange of mph on his fastball for inches on his waist notwithstanding, the New York Yankees addressed the bottom-of-the-rotation weakness more aggressively than last season. While the team is old, the Yankees have a strong case for being the best team in the division.
In Boston, Andrew Bailey is a suitable replacement for Jonathan Papelbon, but Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney are likely complementary players at best. Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Rays actually spent more in the free-agent market this winter than either the Boston Red Sox or Yankees did. And while he's not going to be the force he was several years ago, Carlos Pena is not much of a risk at $7 million.
Toronto continues to have the misfortune of playing in the AL East. Big, long-awaited improvements from Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil could make the Jays relevant, but it's a very tough division to play in. In the NL Central, I'd be tempted to call Toronto the favorite, but not here. The O's, after having learned in 2011 that you can't simply declare yourselves a .500 team, are mostly looking for upside here, such as a recovered Brian Matusz. They'll have a high pick in the 2013 draft.
[h4]American League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
48.1%
[/td][td]
30.8%
[/td][td]
78.9%
[/td][td]
8.3%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Boston Red Sox
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
4
[/td][td]
25.9%
[/td][td]
35.2%
[/td][td]
61.1%
[/td][td]
6.2%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
5
[/td][td]
21.6%
[/td][td]
33.8%
[/td][td]
55.4%
[/td][td]
5.6%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
4.3%
[/td][td]
13.9%
[/td][td]
18.2%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Baltimore Orioles
[/td][td]
67
[/td][td]
95
[/td][td]
26
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
0.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
83
[/td][td]
54
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League Central[/h3]
The AL Central looks like it may be the worst race in baseball, with computers and flesh-and-blood alike seeing the Detroit Tigers as the overwhelming favorite. The Tigers aren't so deep that a poorly placed injury or two won't leave an opening for one of the other teams, but the smart money is on them. The Cleveland Indians competed last year ahead of schedule, and they have an outside shot of giving the Tigers a run. Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson are a solid 1-2, and there's enough upside in players like Grady Sizemore (should he ever get healthy) to make them the best bet to take advantage if the Tigers stumble.
The Chicago White Sox continue to walk the awkward line between rebuilding and competing, now doing neither all that well. While the trades of Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin initially suggested the team was going the rebuilding route, they also inked John Danks to a long-term contract. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios don't bounce back, the White Sox probably win 75 games and the GM in charge of the White Sox next offseason won't be current GM Kenny Williams.
The Kansas City Royals are regularly graduating players to the majors from their farm system, and while their offense looks better than it has in a long time, the pitching hasn't improved at the same rate and the rotation is not yet a positive contributor. The Minnesota Twins have a similar lack of pitching, and even if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau make big comebacks, their starting pitching isn't much better than Kansas City's.
[h4]American League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Detroit Tigers
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
71
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
71.0%
[/td][td]
7.8%
[/td][td]
78.8%
[/td][td]
8.1%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Cleveland Indians
[/td][td]
82
[/td][td]
80
[/td][td]
9
[/td][td]
17.8%
[/td][td]
12.9%
[/td][td]
30.7%
[/td][td]
2.9%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
68
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago White Sox
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
6.7%
[/td][td]
5.9%
[/td][td]
12.6%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
17
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.5%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Minnesota Twins
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
1.2%
[/td][td]
1.3%
[/td][td]
2.5%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
56
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League West[/h3]
The AL West is all Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, leaving little opening for either the Seattle Mariners or the rebuilding Oakland Athletics to be competitive this year. The Angels may worry about the end of the blockbuster Albert Pujols contract, but at this point, he's an MVP candidate, and that C.J. Wilson fellow ain't too shabby. The Rangers replaced Wilson with the best Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher to come overseas, and were good enough to earn their two World Series trips, even if neither ended with a Ranger proclaiming his upcoming trip to Disney World.
Seattle and Oakland don't have the firepower to compete with the teams at the top of their division, and they'll spend their seasons continuing to build for the future. Oakland's offense is a ragtag bunch, similar to that in an '80s movie (without a happy ending), but Tom Milone and Brad Peacock will provide pleasant surprises to a pretty decent rotation.
Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero are both in Seattle's lineup, and the Mariners continuing to find the offense to match their stable of pitching prospects will put the team back on the road to relevance, but not in 2012.
[h4]American League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Texas Rangers
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
59.4%
[/td][td]
21.9%
[/td][td]
81.3%
[/td][td]
8.6%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Angels
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
3
[/td][td]
39.3%
[/td][td]
28.8%
[/td][td]
68.1%
[/td][td]
7.0%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Seattle Mariners
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
0.9%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
57
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Oakland Athletics
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
23
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
1.4%
[/td][td]
1.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
59
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Jeff Samardzija a good rotation gamble.
Spoiler [+]
The word out of Mesa is that Jeff Samardzija has won a spot in the Cubs' rotation, beating out Randy Wells and Travis Wood, who were both demoted to Triple-A Iowa.
Samardzija, who began his pro career as a starter in the minors before being moved to the bullpen, threw six scoreless innings on Wednesday against the Cleveland Indians. While it wasn't a great outing, it was certainly the best combination of stuff and feel that I've seen from Samardzija, who up until this spring looked like nothing more than bullpen cannon fodder. I'm far from sold on him as some kind of beast in the rotation, but at least now there's something there that wasn't there before.
Samardzija was 91-94 in the first inning but dialed it up in the second and sat mostly 94-96 the rest of the way, hitting 97-98 a few times, but lacking consistency with his location; he needs to drive that ball down in the zone, taking advantage of his 6-foot-5 frame, but he left a lot of fastballs up in the zone and didn't seem to find that location, especially the corner low and away from right-handers, until the very end of his outing. His slider was average, breaking in toward left-handers' bats too much, but you could see a weapon in there against right-handed hitters if he can hit that same down-and-away area of the zone. He did throw a handful of changeups to lefties and it's clearly the better pitch for him against those hitters, with good arm speed and separation from the fastball (averaging around 86), good enough that I wasn't sure why he kept going to the slider. His arm works fine, although he wasn't landing online to the plate and often bounced a little off his front foot when he came down.
Samardzija has been penciled into the rotation, at least to start the season, although I assume the Cubs will have to throttle his innings in the second half since he's averaged just 114 innings a year in swing or relief roles over the last three seasons. And it makes sense for the Cubs to see if they have a starter here -- they lack rotation depth and had the flexibility to send Wells and Wood to Triple-A while they see what Samardzija can provide them. That said, I can't go all in on Samardzija as a starter based on this look -- there's potential there, with a plus fastball and two secondary pitches you could project as above-average, but the command and feel, while far above where they were last year when he walked 5.1 men per nine innings, still aren't at major league starter level. It's found money for the Cubs' front office, though, and well worth the flier given the lack of pitching depth in the upper levels of their farm system.
Samardzija, who began his pro career as a starter in the minors before being moved to the bullpen, threw six scoreless innings on Wednesday against the Cleveland Indians. While it wasn't a great outing, it was certainly the best combination of stuff and feel that I've seen from Samardzija, who up until this spring looked like nothing more than bullpen cannon fodder. I'm far from sold on him as some kind of beast in the rotation, but at least now there's something there that wasn't there before.
Samardzija was 91-94 in the first inning but dialed it up in the second and sat mostly 94-96 the rest of the way, hitting 97-98 a few times, but lacking consistency with his location; he needs to drive that ball down in the zone, taking advantage of his 6-foot-5 frame, but he left a lot of fastballs up in the zone and didn't seem to find that location, especially the corner low and away from right-handers, until the very end of his outing. His slider was average, breaking in toward left-handers' bats too much, but you could see a weapon in there against right-handed hitters if he can hit that same down-and-away area of the zone. He did throw a handful of changeups to lefties and it's clearly the better pitch for him against those hitters, with good arm speed and separation from the fastball (averaging around 86), good enough that I wasn't sure why he kept going to the slider. His arm works fine, although he wasn't landing online to the plate and often bounced a little off his front foot when he came down.
Samardzija has been penciled into the rotation, at least to start the season, although I assume the Cubs will have to throttle his innings in the second half since he's averaged just 114 innings a year in swing or relief roles over the last three seasons. And it makes sense for the Cubs to see if they have a starter here -- they lack rotation depth and had the flexibility to send Wells and Wood to Triple-A while they see what Samardzija can provide them. That said, I can't go all in on Samardzija as a starter based on this look -- there's potential there, with a plus fastball and two secondary pitches you could project as above-average, but the command and feel, while far above where they were last year when he walked 5.1 men per nine innings, still aren't at major league starter level. It's found money for the Cubs' front office, though, and well worth the flier given the lack of pitching depth in the upper levels of their farm system.
Projecting the National League.
Overrating Josh Johnson.
Projecting the American League.
Jeff Samardzija a good rotation gamble.
Spoiler [+]
Using the ZiPS projection system, a Monte Carlo simulation and a few scary-sounding bits of math stuff, the 2012 season was simmed a million times to see which teams projected to come out on top.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and 5th-percentile projected win totals, which is essentially a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams and shred all the expectations.
We have already projected the American League, and today we tackle the Senior Circuit.
[h3]National League East[/h3]
The NL East looks stronger than it has in years, as four teams have a realistic shot at winning the division. The Philadelphia Phillies enter another year as the favorite but never by so small a margin, thanks to the team starting to show its age as the injuries pile up. Philadelphia did just win 102 games last year and the biggest reason, an amazing rotation, remains mostly intact. The Phillies may limp to October, but having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can paper over a lot of offensive faults.
The Atlanta Braves' pitching depth has recently taken some hits with Arodys Vizcaino taking his 100 mph to the operating table for Tommy John surgery and the ongoing injury issues of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. They still retain a solid rotation, though with less margin for error, but also get a likely bounce from Jason Heyward and a full year of Michael Bourn, a significant upgrade compared to the departed Nate McLouth.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals were two of the most aggressive teams in baseball in the offseason, something that would be surprising to read three or four years ago. The Marlins landed one of the big prizes, Jose Reyes, giving them the best left side of the infield in baseball. Heath Bell is a significant upgrade in the pen to Whatshisname, and the team is only a healthy Josh Johnson season from making the playoffs. Washington missed out on the names it was targeting in free agency, but Gio Gonzalez -- who was acquired via trade -- should be solid, and Bryce Harper's limitless potential will arrive on stage imminently.
The New York Mets will be eliminated from the playoffs weeks ahead of anyone else in the division, but that's not to say they don't have interesting storylines. They still won't be good, but Johan Santana having a solid return and Lucas Duda proving 2011's performance wasn't a fluke could keep the team from becoming a doormat. Settling the legal issues surrounding the team, even if expensive, removes a gigantic distraction.
[h4]National League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Philadelphia Phillies
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
34.2%
[/td][td]
28.0%
[/td][td]
62.2%
[/td][td]
6.4%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Atlanta Braves
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
28.9%
[/td][td]
28.1%
[/td][td]
57.0%
[/td][td]
5.8%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Miami Marlins
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
24.8%
[/td][td]
27.1%
[/td][td]
51.9%
[/td][td]
5.2%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Washington Nationals
[/td][td]
84
[/td][td]
78
[/td][td]
6
[/td][td]
11.4%
[/td][td]
19.5%
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
3.0%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Mets
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
18
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
58
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League Central[/h3]
The Central looks much like it did in 2012, minus a couple of superstar first basemen. The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals both made some moves to soften some of the blow of losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds -- one of the more disappointing teams in 2011 -- cashed in some of their prospects for Mat Latos. The divisional race is tight enough that it may come down to which team's the healthiest.
The Chicago Cubs have figured out the best way to avoid failing to meet expectations is to enter the season without any. I mean that in the best possible way. Theo Epstein was the biggest non-player acquisition in baseball for some time and has a clean slate to build the Cubs into serious contenders. But not in 2012. The Pittsburgh Pirates made some noise for a month or so last season, but while the team has a direction for the first time in decades, they're not yet at their destination.
The Houston Astros will play 162 games of baseball this year. They'll win some of them.
[h4]National League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Cincinnati Reds
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
36.5%
[/td][td]
14.9%
[/td][td]
51.4%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
14.7%
[/td][td]
45.6%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
71
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
St. Louis Cardinals
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
27.0%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
41.0%
[/td][td]
4.0%
[/td][td]
98
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago Cubs
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
6.6%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
65
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Pittsburgh Pirates
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
2.2%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Houston Astros
[/td][td]
59
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
28
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
49
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League West[/h3]
The NL West looks to be a three-team fight between the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. Arizona was a surprise in 2011, but it has continued to improve the team with the offseason addition of Trevor Cahill. Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley are on the way, either to make the rotation better in the near future or as parts of lucrative trades.
San Francisco missed a lot of opportunities this offseason, but the Giants at least have the potential to improve offensively and still boast an amazing 1-2-3 punch of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. There's enough talent on the roster top 90 wins. The Rockies are nearly forgotten after a 73-win 2011, but they still have impressive top-shelf talent, and Drew Pomeranz should contribute very quickly. If Nolan Arenado continues to plow his way through the minors, he would represent a de facto major midseason acquisition for Colorado.
Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can take a team a long way, but even their combined 18 wins above replacement last year got the Los Angeles Dodgers to only 82 wins. The supporting cast around those two remains very weak as the Dodgers spent $45 million this offseason to bring in what amounts to a bevy of role players who were good five or six years ago. Kenley Jansen will muscle the closer job from Javy Guerra some time this season and be one of the best in baseball, but other than that, the Dodgers need everything to go right to be competitive.
The San Diego Padres added some solid prospects to the team, but none are likely to star in 2012. The loss of Latos, easily the best pitcher in a somewhat overrated rotation, hurts the team in the short term, and bringing in Carlos Quentin is unlikely to be enough to get the team back above .500.
[h4]National League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Arizona Diamondbacks
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
37.2%
[/td][td]
14.6%
[/td][td]
51.8%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Francisco Giants
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
31.5%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
45.5%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
99
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Colorado Rockies
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
25.3%
[/td][td]
13.5%
[/td][td]
38.8%
[/td][td]
3.8%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Diego Padres
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.7%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.9%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Dodgers
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
15
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
3.4%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and 5th-percentile projected win totals, which is essentially a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams and shred all the expectations.
We have already projected the American League, and today we tackle the Senior Circuit.
[h3]National League East[/h3]
The NL East looks stronger than it has in years, as four teams have a realistic shot at winning the division. The Philadelphia Phillies enter another year as the favorite but never by so small a margin, thanks to the team starting to show its age as the injuries pile up. Philadelphia did just win 102 games last year and the biggest reason, an amazing rotation, remains mostly intact. The Phillies may limp to October, but having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can paper over a lot of offensive faults.
The Atlanta Braves' pitching depth has recently taken some hits with Arodys Vizcaino taking his 100 mph to the operating table for Tommy John surgery and the ongoing injury issues of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. They still retain a solid rotation, though with less margin for error, but also get a likely bounce from Jason Heyward and a full year of Michael Bourn, a significant upgrade compared to the departed Nate McLouth.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals were two of the most aggressive teams in baseball in the offseason, something that would be surprising to read three or four years ago. The Marlins landed one of the big prizes, Jose Reyes, giving them the best left side of the infield in baseball. Heath Bell is a significant upgrade in the pen to Whatshisname, and the team is only a healthy Josh Johnson season from making the playoffs. Washington missed out on the names it was targeting in free agency, but Gio Gonzalez -- who was acquired via trade -- should be solid, and Bryce Harper's limitless potential will arrive on stage imminently.
The New York Mets will be eliminated from the playoffs weeks ahead of anyone else in the division, but that's not to say they don't have interesting storylines. They still won't be good, but Johan Santana having a solid return and Lucas Duda proving 2011's performance wasn't a fluke could keep the team from becoming a doormat. Settling the legal issues surrounding the team, even if expensive, removes a gigantic distraction.
[h4]National League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Philadelphia Phillies
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
34.2%
[/td][td]
28.0%
[/td][td]
62.2%
[/td][td]
6.4%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Atlanta Braves
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
28.9%
[/td][td]
28.1%
[/td][td]
57.0%
[/td][td]
5.8%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Miami Marlins
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
24.8%
[/td][td]
27.1%
[/td][td]
51.9%
[/td][td]
5.2%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Washington Nationals
[/td][td]
84
[/td][td]
78
[/td][td]
6
[/td][td]
11.4%
[/td][td]
19.5%
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
3.0%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Mets
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
18
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
58
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League Central[/h3]
The Central looks much like it did in 2012, minus a couple of superstar first basemen. The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals both made some moves to soften some of the blow of losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, respectively, and the Cincinnati Reds -- one of the more disappointing teams in 2011 -- cashed in some of their prospects for Mat Latos. The divisional race is tight enough that it may come down to which team's the healthiest.
The Chicago Cubs have figured out the best way to avoid failing to meet expectations is to enter the season without any. I mean that in the best possible way. Theo Epstein was the biggest non-player acquisition in baseball for some time and has a clean slate to build the Cubs into serious contenders. But not in 2012. The Pittsburgh Pirates made some noise for a month or so last season, but while the team has a direction for the first time in decades, they're not yet at their destination.
The Houston Astros will play 162 games of baseball this year. They'll win some of them.
[h4]National League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Cincinnati Reds
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
36.5%
[/td][td]
14.9%
[/td][td]
51.4%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
30.9%
[/td][td]
14.7%
[/td][td]
45.6%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
71
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
St. Louis Cardinals
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
27.0%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
41.0%
[/td][td]
4.0%
[/td][td]
98
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago Cubs
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
6.6%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
65
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Pittsburgh Pirates
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
2.2%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Houston Astros
[/td][td]
59
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
28
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.0%
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
49
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]National League West[/h3]
The NL West looks to be a three-team fight between the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. Arizona was a surprise in 2011, but it has continued to improve the team with the offseason addition of Trevor Cahill. Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley are on the way, either to make the rotation better in the near future or as parts of lucrative trades.
San Francisco missed a lot of opportunities this offseason, but the Giants at least have the potential to improve offensively and still boast an amazing 1-2-3 punch of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. There's enough talent on the roster top 90 wins. The Rockies are nearly forgotten after a 73-win 2011, but they still have impressive top-shelf talent, and Drew Pomeranz should contribute very quickly. If Nolan Arenado continues to plow his way through the minors, he would represent a de facto major midseason acquisition for Colorado.
Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp can take a team a long way, but even their combined 18 wins above replacement last year got the Los Angeles Dodgers to only 82 wins. The supporting cast around those two remains very weak as the Dodgers spent $45 million this offseason to bring in what amounts to a bevy of role players who were good five or six years ago. Kenley Jansen will muscle the closer job from Javy Guerra some time this season and be one of the best in baseball, but other than that, the Dodgers need everything to go right to be competitive.
The San Diego Padres added some solid prospects to the team, but none are likely to star in 2012. The loss of Latos, easily the best pitcher in a somewhat overrated rotation, hurts the team in the short term, and bringing in Carlos Quentin is unlikely to be enough to get the team back above .500.
[h4]National League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Arizona Diamondbacks
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
37.2%
[/td][td]
14.6%
[/td][td]
51.8%
[/td][td]
5.1%
[/td][td]
103
[/td][td]
74
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Francisco Giants
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
76
[/td][td]
1
[/td][td]
31.5%
[/td][td]
14.0%
[/td][td]
45.5%
[/td][td]
4.5%
[/td][td]
99
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Colorado Rockies
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
2
[/td][td]
25.3%
[/td][td]
13.5%
[/td][td]
38.8%
[/td][td]
3.8%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
San Diego Padres
[/td][td]
75
[/td][td]
87
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
3.7%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.9%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
63
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Dodgers
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
15
[/td][td]
2.3%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
3.4%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Overrating Josh Johnson.
Spoiler [+]
On today's list of the No. 26-50 players in baseball according to the ESPN 500, Miami Marlins ace Josh Johnson came in at No. 30, one spot behind fellow sometimes-injured starter Chris Carpenter. It's easy to see why Johnson (and Carpenter, for that matter) ranked so highly, as they are dominating starters when they take the mound.
Johnson's career ERA- is 70, meaning that he's prevented runs at a rate 30 percent better than an average pitcher during that time. To put that in perspective, Roy Halladay's career ERA- is 71. On a per-inning basis, Johnson stacks up favorably against any pitcher in the game.
However, while Johnson's quality level is extremely high, his quantity of innings pitched is relatively low. He's managed just 725 innings across parts of seven seasons and has made more than 14 starts in a season just three times in his career. Persistent health problems have been an issue that Johnson just hasn't been able to shake, and given his lingering shoulder problems that limited him to just 60 innings pitched last year, the Marlins need to have muted expectations for how often he'll be able to take the hill in 2012.
That realization is a large part of the reason that the team aggressively pursued Mark Buehrle as a free agent. Buehrle might be the furthest thing from Johnson currently pitching in the game today -- a soft-tossing left-hander who rarely gets a strikeout but who is a mortal lock to take the hill every fifth day and pitch deep into the ballgame. Buehrle has reached the 200-inning mark in an astounding 11 consecutive seasons and has never once been on the disabled list. In fact, he's never missed a start for any reason since being called up to the big leagues in 2000. And yet, the ironman among current starting pitchers was rated only 134th by the voters in the ESPN 500, sliding in between Aramis Ramirez and John Danks.
So, we know that the voters prefer quality over quantity in their starting pitchers, but now that the Marlins have both, which one is likely to provide more value for Miami in 2012?
These kinds of situations are the reason behind statistics like wins above replacement, as baseball needed a way to measure the value of a player in relation to who might end up taking his place in case of an injury. Because WAR is a counting stat, rather than something like ERA, it allows us to compare the value of excellent performances in limited playing quantities against players who aren't as valuable on a per-game basis but are more reliable and keep a team from having to turn to a replacement level player to fill a hole.
Considering Johnson's many injuries since debuting in 2006 -- Buehrle has thrown 540 more innnings during that time -- you might expect that Buehrle would have a massive advantage in WAR while both have been big league starters, but it's actually fairly close -- 20.8 for Buehrle, 18.5 for Johnson. Using a straight average, Buehrle has averaged 3.5 WAR per season in the last six years, while Johnson has come in at 3.1. They've gotten there very different ways, but the end results suggest that they've been similarly valuable to their respective franchises.
However, the ESPN 500 is about 2012 performance, and a straight average might underrepresent Johnson's value since it includes entire years where he barely pitched while recovering from surgery. The potential value he represents if he stays healthy -- as he did in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 6.0 WAR per season and was the third-best pitcher in the National League -- far surpasses what the Marlins could reasonably expect from Buehrle going forward.
Buehrle can reasonably expect to be worth about 3.5 WAR this season, as he's been between 3.4 and 4.6 in every season since 2007 and is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game today. How many innings would Johnson have to throw to exceed that total? If you take Johnson's career WAR of 18.6 and divide it by his 725 innings pitched, you get .025 WAR per inning. To exceed 3.5 WAR, Johnson would have to throw 138 innings this season. Interestingly enough, Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections have Johnson pegged for 129 innings this year, suggesting that Buehrle and Johnson may end up with very similar values for 2012.
While it's understandable that the voters preferred upside instead of boring old durability, the respective histories of these two pitchers suggest that the Marlins' best pitcher this season might not be Josh Johnson after all. Perhaps voters underestimated just how valuable the Marlins' new workhorse can really be.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Johnson's career ERA- is 70, meaning that he's prevented runs at a rate 30 percent better than an average pitcher during that time. To put that in perspective, Roy Halladay's career ERA- is 71. On a per-inning basis, Johnson stacks up favorably against any pitcher in the game.
However, while Johnson's quality level is extremely high, his quantity of innings pitched is relatively low. He's managed just 725 innings across parts of seven seasons and has made more than 14 starts in a season just three times in his career. Persistent health problems have been an issue that Johnson just hasn't been able to shake, and given his lingering shoulder problems that limited him to just 60 innings pitched last year, the Marlins need to have muted expectations for how often he'll be able to take the hill in 2012.
That realization is a large part of the reason that the team aggressively pursued Mark Buehrle as a free agent. Buehrle might be the furthest thing from Johnson currently pitching in the game today -- a soft-tossing left-hander who rarely gets a strikeout but who is a mortal lock to take the hill every fifth day and pitch deep into the ballgame. Buehrle has reached the 200-inning mark in an astounding 11 consecutive seasons and has never once been on the disabled list. In fact, he's never missed a start for any reason since being called up to the big leagues in 2000. And yet, the ironman among current starting pitchers was rated only 134th by the voters in the ESPN 500, sliding in between Aramis Ramirez and John Danks.
So, we know that the voters prefer quality over quantity in their starting pitchers, but now that the Marlins have both, which one is likely to provide more value for Miami in 2012?
These kinds of situations are the reason behind statistics like wins above replacement, as baseball needed a way to measure the value of a player in relation to who might end up taking his place in case of an injury. Because WAR is a counting stat, rather than something like ERA, it allows us to compare the value of excellent performances in limited playing quantities against players who aren't as valuable on a per-game basis but are more reliable and keep a team from having to turn to a replacement level player to fill a hole.
Considering Johnson's many injuries since debuting in 2006 -- Buehrle has thrown 540 more innnings during that time -- you might expect that Buehrle would have a massive advantage in WAR while both have been big league starters, but it's actually fairly close -- 20.8 for Buehrle, 18.5 for Johnson. Using a straight average, Buehrle has averaged 3.5 WAR per season in the last six years, while Johnson has come in at 3.1. They've gotten there very different ways, but the end results suggest that they've been similarly valuable to their respective franchises.
However, the ESPN 500 is about 2012 performance, and a straight average might underrepresent Johnson's value since it includes entire years where he barely pitched while recovering from surgery. The potential value he represents if he stays healthy -- as he did in 2009 and 2010, when he averaged 6.0 WAR per season and was the third-best pitcher in the National League -- far surpasses what the Marlins could reasonably expect from Buehrle going forward.
Buehrle can reasonably expect to be worth about 3.5 WAR this season, as he's been between 3.4 and 4.6 in every season since 2007 and is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game today. How many innings would Johnson have to throw to exceed that total? If you take Johnson's career WAR of 18.6 and divide it by his 725 innings pitched, you get .025 WAR per inning. To exceed 3.5 WAR, Johnson would have to throw 138 innings this season. Interestingly enough, Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projections have Johnson pegged for 129 innings this year, suggesting that Buehrle and Johnson may end up with very similar values for 2012.
While it's understandable that the voters preferred upside instead of boring old durability, the respective histories of these two pitchers suggest that the Marlins' best pitcher this season might not be Josh Johnson after all. Perhaps voters underestimated just how valuable the Marlins' new workhorse can really be.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Projecting the American League.
Spoiler [+]
Using the ZiPS projection system, a Monte Carlo simulation and a few scary-sounding bits of math stuff, the 2012 season was simmed a million times to see which teams projected to come out on top.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and fifth-percentile projected win totals, which is basically a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams shred all the expectations.
Today, we'll project and analyze the American League divisions. On Friday, we'll tackle the National League.
[h3]American League East[/h3]
The AL East should look quite similar to what we've seen in recent seasons: a three-way battle between three of the elite teams, the Toronto Blue Jays hanging around .500 and the Baltimore Orioles hoping that baseball's next structural change doesn't involve a soccer-style relegation. Michael Pineda's apparent exchange of mph on his fastball for inches on his waist notwithstanding, the New York Yankees addressed the bottom-of-the-rotation weakness more aggressively than last season. While the team is old, the Yankees have a strong case for being the best team in the division.
In Boston, Andrew Bailey is a suitable replacement for Jonathan Papelbon, but Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney are likely complementary players at best. Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Rays actually spent more in the free-agent market this winter than either the Boston Red Sox or Yankees did. And while he's not going to be the force he was several years ago, Carlos Pena is not much of a risk at $7 million.
Toronto continues to have the misfortune of playing in the AL East. Big, long-awaited improvements from Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil could make the Jays relevant, but it's a very tough division to play in. In the NL Central, I'd be tempted to call Toronto the favorite, but not here. The O's, after having learned in 2011 that you can't simply declare yourselves a .500 team, are mostly looking for upside here, such as a recovered Brian Matusz. They'll have a high pick in the 2013 draft.
[h4]American League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
48.1%
[/td][td]
30.8%
[/td][td]
78.9%
[/td][td]
8.3%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Boston Red Sox
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
4
[/td][td]
25.9%
[/td][td]
35.2%
[/td][td]
61.1%
[/td][td]
6.2%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
5
[/td][td]
21.6%
[/td][td]
33.8%
[/td][td]
55.4%
[/td][td]
5.6%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
4.3%
[/td][td]
13.9%
[/td][td]
18.2%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Baltimore Orioles
[/td][td]
67
[/td][td]
95
[/td][td]
26
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
0.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
83
[/td][td]
54
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League Central[/h3]
The AL Central looks like it may be the worst race in baseball, with computers and flesh-and-blood alike seeing the Detroit Tigers as the overwhelming favorite. The Tigers aren't so deep that a poorly placed injury or two won't leave an opening for one of the other teams, but the smart money is on them. The Cleveland Indians competed last year ahead of schedule, and they have an outside shot of giving the Tigers a run. Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson are a solid 1-2, and there's enough upside in players like Grady Sizemore (should he ever get healthy) to make them the best bet to take advantage if the Tigers stumble.
The Chicago White Sox continue to walk the awkward line between rebuilding and competing, now doing neither all that well. While the trades of Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin initially suggested the team was going the rebuilding route, they also inked John Danks to a long-term contract. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios don't bounce back, the White Sox probably win 75 games and the GM in charge of the White Sox next offseason won't be current GM Kenny Williams.
The Kansas City Royals are regularly graduating players to the majors from their farm system, and while their offense looks better than it has in a long time, the pitching hasn't improved at the same rate and the rotation is not yet a positive contributor. The Minnesota Twins have a similar lack of pitching, and even if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau make big comebacks, their starting pitching isn't much better than Kansas City's.
[h4]American League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Detroit Tigers
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
71
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
71.0%
[/td][td]
7.8%
[/td][td]
78.8%
[/td][td]
8.1%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Cleveland Indians
[/td][td]
82
[/td][td]
80
[/td][td]
9
[/td][td]
17.8%
[/td][td]
12.9%
[/td][td]
30.7%
[/td][td]
2.9%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
68
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago White Sox
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
6.7%
[/td][td]
5.9%
[/td][td]
12.6%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
17
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.5%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Minnesota Twins
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
1.2%
[/td][td]
1.3%
[/td][td]
2.5%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
56
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League West[/h3]
The AL West is all Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, leaving little opening for either the Seattle Mariners or the rebuilding Oakland Athletics to be competitive this year. The Angels may worry about the end of the blockbuster Albert Pujols contract, but at this point, he's an MVP candidate, and that C.J. Wilson fellow ain't too shabby. The Rangers replaced Wilson with the best Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher to come overseas, and were good enough to earn their two World Series trips, even if neither ended with a Ranger proclaiming his upcoming trip to Disney World.
Seattle and Oakland don't have the firepower to compete with the teams at the top of their division, and they'll spend their seasons continuing to build for the future. Oakland's offense is a ragtag bunch, similar to that in an '80s movie (without a happy ending), but Tom Milone and Brad Peacock will provide pleasant surprises to a pretty decent rotation.
Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero are both in Seattle's lineup, and the Mariners continuing to find the offense to match their stable of pitching prospects will put the team back on the road to relevance, but not in 2012.
[h4]American League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Texas Rangers
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
59.4%
[/td][td]
21.9%
[/td][td]
81.3%
[/td][td]
8.6%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Angels
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
3
[/td][td]
39.3%
[/td][td]
28.8%
[/td][td]
68.1%
[/td][td]
7.0%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Seattle Mariners
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
0.9%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
57
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Oakland Athletics
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
23
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
1.4%
[/td][td]
1.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
59
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and fifth-percentile projected win totals, which is basically a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams shred all the expectations.
Today, we'll project and analyze the American League divisions. On Friday, we'll tackle the National League.
[h3]American League East[/h3]
The AL East should look quite similar to what we've seen in recent seasons: a three-way battle between three of the elite teams, the Toronto Blue Jays hanging around .500 and the Baltimore Orioles hoping that baseball's next structural change doesn't involve a soccer-style relegation. Michael Pineda's apparent exchange of mph on his fastball for inches on his waist notwithstanding, the New York Yankees addressed the bottom-of-the-rotation weakness more aggressively than last season. While the team is old, the Yankees have a strong case for being the best team in the division.
In Boston, Andrew Bailey is a suitable replacement for Jonathan Papelbon, but Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney are likely complementary players at best. Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Rays actually spent more in the free-agent market this winter than either the Boston Red Sox or Yankees did. And while he's not going to be the force he was several years ago, Carlos Pena is not much of a risk at $7 million.
Toronto continues to have the misfortune of playing in the AL East. Big, long-awaited improvements from Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil could make the Jays relevant, but it's a very tough division to play in. In the NL Central, I'd be tempted to call Toronto the favorite, but not here. The O's, after having learned in 2011 that you can't simply declare yourselves a .500 team, are mostly looking for upside here, such as a recovered Brian Matusz. They'll have a high pick in the 2013 draft.
[h4]American League East projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
48.1%
[/td][td]
30.8%
[/td][td]
78.9%
[/td][td]
8.3%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Boston Red Sox
[/td][td]
89
[/td][td]
73
[/td][td]
4
[/td][td]
25.9%
[/td][td]
35.2%
[/td][td]
61.1%
[/td][td]
6.2%
[/td][td]
101
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
5
[/td][td]
21.6%
[/td][td]
33.8%
[/td][td]
55.4%
[/td][td]
5.6%
[/td][td]
104
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
81
[/td][td]
12
[/td][td]
4.3%
[/td][td]
13.9%
[/td][td]
18.2%
[/td][td]
1.7%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Baltimore Orioles
[/td][td]
67
[/td][td]
95
[/td][td]
26
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
0.7%
[/td][td]
0.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
83
[/td][td]
54
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League Central[/h3]
The AL Central looks like it may be the worst race in baseball, with computers and flesh-and-blood alike seeing the Detroit Tigers as the overwhelming favorite. The Tigers aren't so deep that a poorly placed injury or two won't leave an opening for one of the other teams, but the smart money is on them. The Cleveland Indians competed last year ahead of schedule, and they have an outside shot of giving the Tigers a run. Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson are a solid 1-2, and there's enough upside in players like Grady Sizemore (should he ever get healthy) to make them the best bet to take advantage if the Tigers stumble.
The Chicago White Sox continue to walk the awkward line between rebuilding and competing, now doing neither all that well. While the trades of Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin initially suggested the team was going the rebuilding route, they also inked John Danks to a long-term contract. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios don't bounce back, the White Sox probably win 75 games and the GM in charge of the White Sox next offseason won't be current GM Kenny Williams.
The Kansas City Royals are regularly graduating players to the majors from their farm system, and while their offense looks better than it has in a long time, the pitching hasn't improved at the same rate and the rotation is not yet a positive contributor. The Minnesota Twins have a similar lack of pitching, and even if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau make big comebacks, their starting pitching isn't much better than Kansas City's.
[h4]American League Central projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Detroit Tigers
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
71
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
71.0%
[/td][td]
7.8%
[/td][td]
78.8%
[/td][td]
8.1%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
73
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Cleveland Indians
[/td][td]
82
[/td][td]
80
[/td][td]
9
[/td][td]
17.8%
[/td][td]
12.9%
[/td][td]
30.7%
[/td][td]
2.9%
[/td][td]
100
[/td][td]
68
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Chicago White Sox
[/td][td]
77
[/td][td]
85
[/td][td]
14
[/td][td]
6.7%
[/td][td]
5.9%
[/td][td]
12.6%
[/td][td]
1.1%
[/td][td]
91
[/td][td]
60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
74
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
17
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
3.2%
[/td][td]
6.5%
[/td][td]
0.6%
[/td][td]
94
[/td][td]
64
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Minnesota Twins
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
1.2%
[/td][td]
1.3%
[/td][td]
2.5%
[/td][td]
0.2%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
56
[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]American League West[/h3]
The AL West is all Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, leaving little opening for either the Seattle Mariners or the rebuilding Oakland Athletics to be competitive this year. The Angels may worry about the end of the blockbuster Albert Pujols contract, but at this point, he's an MVP candidate, and that C.J. Wilson fellow ain't too shabby. The Rangers replaced Wilson with the best Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher to come overseas, and were good enough to earn their two World Series trips, even if neither ended with a Ranger proclaiming his upcoming trip to Disney World.
Seattle and Oakland don't have the firepower to compete with the teams at the top of their division, and they'll spend their seasons continuing to build for the future. Oakland's offense is a ragtag bunch, similar to that in an '80s movie (without a happy ending), but Tom Milone and Brad Peacock will provide pleasant surprises to a pretty decent rotation.
Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero are both in Seattle's lineup, and the Mariners continuing to find the offense to match their stable of pitching prospects will put the team back on the road to relevance, but not in 2012.
[h4]American League West projections[/h4][table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
W
[/th][th=""]
L
[/th][th=""]
GB
[/th][th=""]
DIV%
[/th][th=""]
WC%
[/th][th=""]
Playoffs
[/th][th=""]
Win WS
[/th][th=""]
95th%
[/th][th=""]
5th%
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Texas Rangers
[/td][td]
93
[/td][td]
69
[/td][td]
--
[/td][td]
59.4%
[/td][td]
21.9%
[/td][td]
81.3%
[/td][td]
8.6%
[/td][td]
107
[/td][td]
76
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Los Angeles Angels
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
3
[/td][td]
39.3%
[/td][td]
28.8%
[/td][td]
68.1%
[/td][td]
7.0%
[/td][td]
105
[/td][td]
72
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Seattle Mariners
[/td][td]
72
[/td][td]
90
[/td][td]
21
[/td][td]
0.9%
[/td][td]
2.4%
[/td][td]
3.3%
[/td][td]
0.3%
[/td][td]
88
[/td][td]
57
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Oakland Athletics
[/td][td]
70
[/td][td]
92
[/td][td]
23
[/td][td]
0.4%
[/td][td]
1.4%
[/td][td]
1.8%
[/td][td]
0.1%
[/td][td]
86
[/td][td]
59
[/td][/tr][/table]
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Jeff Samardzija a good rotation gamble.
Spoiler [+]
The word out of Mesa is that Jeff Samardzija has won a spot in the Cubs' rotation, beating out Randy Wells and Travis Wood, who were both demoted to Triple-A Iowa.
Samardzija, who began his pro career as a starter in the minors before being moved to the bullpen, threw six scoreless innings on Wednesday against the Cleveland Indians. While it wasn't a great outing, it was certainly the best combination of stuff and feel that I've seen from Samardzija, who up until this spring looked like nothing more than bullpen cannon fodder. I'm far from sold on him as some kind of beast in the rotation, but at least now there's something there that wasn't there before.
Samardzija was 91-94 in the first inning but dialed it up in the second and sat mostly 94-96 the rest of the way, hitting 97-98 a few times, but lacking consistency with his location; he needs to drive that ball down in the zone, taking advantage of his 6-foot-5 frame, but he left a lot of fastballs up in the zone and didn't seem to find that location, especially the corner low and away from right-handers, until the very end of his outing. His slider was average, breaking in toward left-handers' bats too much, but you could see a weapon in there against right-handed hitters if he can hit that same down-and-away area of the zone. He did throw a handful of changeups to lefties and it's clearly the better pitch for him against those hitters, with good arm speed and separation from the fastball (averaging around 86), good enough that I wasn't sure why he kept going to the slider. His arm works fine, although he wasn't landing online to the plate and often bounced a little off his front foot when he came down.
Samardzija has been penciled into the rotation, at least to start the season, although I assume the Cubs will have to throttle his innings in the second half since he's averaged just 114 innings a year in swing or relief roles over the last three seasons. And it makes sense for the Cubs to see if they have a starter here -- they lack rotation depth and had the flexibility to send Wells and Wood to Triple-A while they see what Samardzija can provide them. That said, I can't go all in on Samardzija as a starter based on this look -- there's potential there, with a plus fastball and two secondary pitches you could project as above-average, but the command and feel, while far above where they were last year when he walked 5.1 men per nine innings, still aren't at major league starter level. It's found money for the Cubs' front office, though, and well worth the flier given the lack of pitching depth in the upper levels of their farm system.
Samardzija, who began his pro career as a starter in the minors before being moved to the bullpen, threw six scoreless innings on Wednesday against the Cleveland Indians. While it wasn't a great outing, it was certainly the best combination of stuff and feel that I've seen from Samardzija, who up until this spring looked like nothing more than bullpen cannon fodder. I'm far from sold on him as some kind of beast in the rotation, but at least now there's something there that wasn't there before.
Samardzija was 91-94 in the first inning but dialed it up in the second and sat mostly 94-96 the rest of the way, hitting 97-98 a few times, but lacking consistency with his location; he needs to drive that ball down in the zone, taking advantage of his 6-foot-5 frame, but he left a lot of fastballs up in the zone and didn't seem to find that location, especially the corner low and away from right-handers, until the very end of his outing. His slider was average, breaking in toward left-handers' bats too much, but you could see a weapon in there against right-handed hitters if he can hit that same down-and-away area of the zone. He did throw a handful of changeups to lefties and it's clearly the better pitch for him against those hitters, with good arm speed and separation from the fastball (averaging around 86), good enough that I wasn't sure why he kept going to the slider. His arm works fine, although he wasn't landing online to the plate and often bounced a little off his front foot when he came down.
Samardzija has been penciled into the rotation, at least to start the season, although I assume the Cubs will have to throttle his innings in the second half since he's averaged just 114 innings a year in swing or relief roles over the last three seasons. And it makes sense for the Cubs to see if they have a starter here -- they lack rotation depth and had the flexibility to send Wells and Wood to Triple-A while they see what Samardzija can provide them. That said, I can't go all in on Samardzija as a starter based on this look -- there's potential there, with a plus fastball and two secondary pitches you could project as above-average, but the command and feel, while far above where they were last year when he walked 5.1 men per nine innings, still aren't at major league starter level. It's found money for the Cubs' front office, though, and well worth the flier given the lack of pitching depth in the upper levels of their farm system.
- 7,805
- 247
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2006
So Jamie Moyer made the Rockies' rotation.
- 7,805
- 247
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2006
So Jamie Moyer made the Rockies' rotation.
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Doesnt he have the record for most HR`s given up or most losses or something? Its not a good stat, i know that much.
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Doesnt he have the record for most HR`s given up or most losses or something? Its not a good stat, i know that much.
- 57,881
- 29,280
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2005
I mean...The guy has been in the league since 1986.
He's the man though.
- 57,881
- 29,280
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2005
I mean...The guy has been in the league since 1986.
He's the man though.
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Damn.........he been pitching since i was 2 years old..............Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
I mean...The guy has been in the league since 1986.
He's the man though.
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Damn.........he been pitching since i was 2 years old..............Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
I mean...The guy has been in the league since 1986.
He's the man though.
- 601
- 11
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2008
Pro, does that mean ten of the MLB teams are worth 1+ billion??
- 601
- 11
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2008
Pro, does that mean ten of the MLB teams are worth 1+ billion??
- 601
- 11
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2008
Pro, does that mean ten of the MLB teams are worth 1+ billion??
- 8,139
- 88
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2005
Whats up with Pineda's shoulder injury?
- 8,139
- 88
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2005
Whats up with Pineda's shoulder injury?
- 57,881
- 29,280
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2005
Tendonitis. Precautionary or not...This had to be a worry for the Yanks. Only thing that could've completely derailed that trade was if Pineda had arm problems. Stay tuned, I guess.
- 57,881
- 29,280
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2005
Tendonitis. Precautionary or not...This had to be a worry for the Yanks. Only thing that could've completely derailed that trade was if Pineda had arm problems. Stay tuned, I guess.
- 7,805
- 247
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2006
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32
Whats up with Pineda's shoulder injury?
Yankee fans seem to have their ideas:
- Verducci effect
- Pineda didn't work out in the offseason (came into camp 15 lbs overweight)
- He may have had a problem starting from the end of the season with Seattle
- Too much tweaks in his mechanics that either affected the shoulder or aggravated something that was already affecting his shoulder.
And someone thinks Cashman knew this was a potential problem, hence the Andy Pettitte signing.
This makes the Pineda trade hurt even more for some fans as Jesus Montero is healthy with the M's...
But hey! At least the battle for the rotation is over and decided!
- 7,805
- 247
- Joined
- Jul 2, 2006
Originally Posted by Stringer Bell 32
Whats up with Pineda's shoulder injury?
Yankee fans seem to have their ideas:
- Verducci effect
- Pineda didn't work out in the offseason (came into camp 15 lbs overweight)
- He may have had a problem starting from the end of the season with Seattle
- Too much tweaks in his mechanics that either affected the shoulder or aggravated something that was already affecting his shoulder.
And someone thinks Cashman knew this was a potential problem, hence the Andy Pettitte signing.
This makes the Pineda trade hurt even more for some fans as Jesus Montero is healthy with the M's...
But hey! At least the battle for the rotation is over and decided!
- 8,818
- 4,296
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2004
reposting this from last year
according to this i should be rooting for the cardinals.
according to this i should be rooting for the cardinals.
- 8,818
- 4,296
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2004
reposting this from last year
according to this i should be rooting for the cardinals.
according to this i should be rooting for the cardinals.
- 57,881
- 29,280
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2005
- Status