2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Bowden: Dempster to L.A.
1:16
PM ETRyan Dempster | Cubs Recommend7Comments2EmailUPDATE: Dempster will land in Los Angeles after some small details are finalized, tweets ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden.

Once the deal is official, the starting pitching market will become even thinner, leaving Matt Garza, Josh Johnson and James Shields for contenders to consider, unless a surprise target surfaces.

Bowden :lol:

JIM BOWDEN@JimBowdenESPNxmCubs source just told me that a Dempster deal to Dodgers NOT done and that Dempster opened up to other teams & they are working hard w 1 now
 
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Yea I'm gonna stop with all these updates, **** is getting out of control :lol:

I think Nate could be useful in Philly.
 
ooIRON MANoo said:
Theo putting in work... Lol
He's just dumping players for peanuts. Got worked by Dempster and can't dump Soriano. Very dissapointing for Cubs fans.
Victorino brings a lot to the table but hard to root for due to past history.
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Theo is doing a pretty good job. We got 3 Young pitchers. Soto is crap, Dempster is 34 and cubs aint trying to pay him that 14 million, and reed johnson is a 35 year old average baseball player. Nothing major. I think Theo should of speeded up the process on Soriano to the dodgers because they got Shane, now we have 1 hour and 15 minutes to get rid of Soriano. I think it was a bad moved by the Braves by giving up Vazicano.
 
i liked the way philly made out dumped some $$ and got a few decent prospects. lee will be dealt in offseason
 
Jerseyjz said:
i liked the way philly made out dumped some $$ and got a few decent prospects. lee will be dealt in offseason
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yeah this is a lost season; Phillies will re-tool and contend again next year

they are now in that Yankees, Angels, Red Sox category as far as revenue streams
 
Theo did work. No matter what anyone says. He's down to Soriano and Garza being the only high dollar guys left, and Sori will get moved after clearing waivers. Garza, maybe in the offseason I guess. No biggie.

He flipped Maholm and Johnson for prospects, aging Dempster for prospects, even got one for Soto of all people.

He had already landed Rizzo in the offseason to pair with Starlin, I assume Brett Jackson comes up pretty soon to get some big league time, I'm not sure how someone spins that he didn't do anything and all he did was get peanuts. :lol:
 
Meh. At least on the Rangers deals, Theo traded Dempster/Soto for 3 spare prospect pieces. Wouldn't call that doing work.

Dempster is better than Oswalt/Feldman, so whatever.
 
Texas had to answer LAA for getting Grienke somehow, Dempster was their answer.

Yankees get McGhee solid RH bat.

Arizona failed on their blockbuster deal.

Should be seeing a lot of big names clear waivers soon
 
Nowitness41Dirk said:
Meh. At least on the Rangers deals, Theo traded Dempster/Soto for 3 spare prospect pieces. Wouldn't call that doing work.
Dempster is better than Oswalt/Feldman, so whatever.
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3 spare projects? go do your research bro. all the players that got traded today for cubs do not fit long term plans.
 
Proshares said:
Bowden: Dempster to L.A.
1:16
PM ETRyan Dempster | Cubs Recommend7Comments2EmailUPDATE: Dempster will land in Los Angeles after some small details are finalized, tweets ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden.
Once the deal is official, the starting pitching market will become even thinner, leaving Matt Garza, Josh Johnson and James Shields for contenders to consider, unless a surprise target surfaces.
Bowden :lol:
JIM BOWDEN@JimBowdenESPNxmCubs source just told me that a Dempster deal to Dodgers NOT done and that Dempster opened up to other teams & they are working hard w 1 now
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Bowden is a CLOWN

:smh:
 
SportsJunkie said:
3 spare projects? go do your research bro. all the players that got traded today for cubs do not fit long term plans.
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I think his point was that the prospects they got back aren't all that great, which is true. But getting something back instead of nothing so that's a plus I suppose.

Post up all the reviews in a bit.
 
Breaking down the Ryan Dempster deal.

After much speculation, Ryan Dempster was finally traded just moments before the trade deadline. In the end, he was sent to the Texas Rangers, and the Chicago Cubs received prospects Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks in exchange.
[+] Enlarge
Ryan DempsterAP Photo/Gene J. PuskarDempster isn't an ace, but he will give the Rangers quality innings.

Dempster could easily be worth two wins to Texas through the end of the season over what the Rangers would have gotten from the shattered remains of Roy Oswalt, which are being vacuumed off the Ballpark at Arlington mound as I write. That said, Dempster has been extremely lucky this season in several areas that are not actual skills, from a .245 batting average on balls in play to an extraordinarily high strand rate, and he has the worst ground ball rate of his career.

However, he has two strong offspeed weapons in a mid-80s slider that he throws for strikes (and throws quite often) and a low-80s splitter that functions like a hard changeup with some late tumble to keep hitters from elevating it. He's good enough to start a playoff game for Texas, but I don't think he's the No. 1 starter for which many Rangers fans were clamoring -- even though the team is four games up in the loss column and didn't need to pay that kind of price.

The Cubs' leverage to move Dempster was limited by his 10-and-5 rights, allowing him to veto any potential trade, and his impending free agency, so acquiring a solid prospect in Villanueva is a reasonable return. A third baseman, Villanueva was hopelessly blocked in the Rangers' organization, where Mike Olt can't even find a place to play because of Adrian Beltre, but he does have major league potential as a plus defender with doubles power. He's a below-average runner and is not patient, which means he'll fit right in with most of the Cubs' other offensive prospects. He turned 21 in June and put up a .285/.356/.421 line this year for high Class A Myrtle Beach, which has one of the toughest parks for hitters in the minors.

Hendricks is more of an organizational starter, 87-89 mph with an average cutter and changeup and below-average curveball but good command and a repeatable delivery and arm action. The right-hander could surface as a fifth starter, but his stuff is probably too fringy for that.

The Cubs' haul from the trades of Dempster, Paul Maholm, Reed Johnson and Geovany Soto over the past few days netted one major prospect in Arodys Vizcaino, who once healthy will be the best pitching prospect in their system, as well as a solid quantity of organizational prospect depth. They also still have Matt Garza, a valuable trade asset because he's both effective and under control for 2013, and who should return at least one above-average prospect in a trade this offseason.

Jonathan Broxton an odd fit for Reds.

Jonathan Broxton is a peculiar addition for the Cincinnati Reds, for whom the bullpen is a strength while the top of the lineup is a festering sore.

Broxton hasn't thrown as hard or missed as many bats the past two years as he did prior to his injury, succeeding this year thanks to a spike in his ground ball rate because of a little increased life on his fastball, which previously was flatter and thus easier to hit in the air. He's a depth guy for the Reds, who were a little left-handed in the back of their 'pen but didn't need a premium arm with Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall present.

In exchange for Broxton, the Kansas City Royals get right-hander J.C. Sulbaran, a possible back-end starter who's 90-94 mph with a plus changeup and some feel for a curveball. Born in Curacao, he has competed for the Netherlands in several international competitions, including the Beijing Olympics in 2008. He was also a high school teammate of Eric Hosmer. His fastball is true and his command is erratic, both of which hold him back as a potential starter, although with the potential for two above-average secondary pitches he could be an effective non-specialist reliever. He has whiffed more than a man per inning for Double-A Pensacola.

Left-hander Donnie Joseph is currently at Triple-A and is strictly a reliever, most likely a lefty specialist with a fastball/slider combination that has left-handed batters 7-for-54 against him this year with 24 punchouts and two extra-base hits across two levels. For Broxton, it's a solid return.

Marlins-Cardinals trade

I'm surprised that the Cardinals gave up so quickly on 2010 first-rounder Zack Cox, although in their defense he has been awful this year as a 23-year-old in Triple-A, posting a .294 OBP; he hasn't drawn a walk since June 21, a span covering 25 games and exactly 100 at-bats. Cox has above-average raw power that has started to show up in games this year, although he still has a whole-field approach that unfortunately doesn't include working the count as much as it has to. He's fringy at third base with a plus arm but a slow lower half.

Is that too high of a price for a homer-prone right-handed reliever? I tend to think it is. Edward Mujica has switched to using a two-seamer more often this year to try to keep the ball in the park, without great success and at a cost of some swings and misses, and even with a splitter in his arsenal he has trouble with left-handed batters. He's marginally better than a replacement-level right-handed reliever and not someone I'd give up a decent, if clearly faded, prospect to acquire.

Phillies add system depth in two deals.

The Philadelphia Phillies made two notable trades early Tuesday afternoon, sending Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Ethan Martin and Josh Lindblom, and Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for Tommy Joseph, Nate Schierholtz and Seth Rosin.

Victorino helps the Dodgers primarily because of who he's replacing, as L.A.'s left fielders have hit a whopping .259/.329/.348 this season, while the replacements for Andre Ethier when he was on the DL were even worse. But Victorino isn't the player he was a year or two ago, as his bat speed has started to slow and his range in center has slipped. He could be worth an extra win to the Dodgers given how little they've gotten from left field this year.

The return for the Phillies is surprisingly good, given his down year and impending free agency. Martin is an upside play, a 2008 first-round pick who has bounced back from two disappointing years when his command and velocity weren't where they were expected to be. The right-hander is 93-97 again and flashes a plus curveball, which could be a very strong combo in a relief role; to start, he'll need to improve his fringy changeup and throw a lot more strikes, although his 12 percent walk rate this year is actually the best of his career and the 23-year-old is striking out almost a man per inning at Double-A Chattanooga. He's a good athlete who had some potential as a third baseman with power in high school.

Lindblom has an above-average fastball but no out pitch; his best weapon is an 82-85 mph slider that isn't really sharp enough to consistently get under hitters' bats, and he should probably junk his slow curveball entirely. He could end up a capable middle reliever, but his value is primarily in his low cost.

Pence is a marginal upgrade for the Giants over Gregor Blanco, adding more offense but at some cost on defense; AT&T Park also isn't the ideal spot for a hitter like Pence, whose power is above-average but not the kind of huge power that will play even in a large stadium. He'll earn somewhere around $13-14 million in 2013 through arbitration. What boggles the mind is why the Giants allowed Carlos Beltran, a better if more injury-prone player whom they gave up a top prospect for a year ago, to walk away last offseason only to have to trade for a replacement midyear. Did they not realize how lacking their offense would be?

Joseph is an offensive catcher with arm strength whose receiving, although improved from his high school days, needs work and could lead to his moving off the position or ending up a backup. Joseph has above-average raw power right now with average bat speed but good rotation with his strong upper body; his plate discipline is adequate, and his performance this year partly reflects his youth relative to his competition. (He has a .705 OPS for Double-A Richmond and turned 21 a few weeks ago.) If his receiving continues to improve, he could end up a valuable everyday catcher because of his bat, but right now it's probably worse than even money that he can do so.

Schierholtz is a platoon outfielder who's capable in either corner and can hit right-handers well enough to be part of a solution with the proper platoon partner. Rosin is a big, right-handed strikethrower who has seen his velocity spike this summer after he returned to the rotation for high Class A San Jose. His fastball is bumping 95 mph, and he could end up a back-end starter if that holds. It's a very good return for Pence, not close to what the Phillies gave up last summer, but excellent considering Pence's potential cost next year.

Trading two outfielders, even with one coming back, has to open a spot in Philly for the team to give Domonic Brown another chance in the big leagues, although his performance in Triple-A this year has been disappointing. He still has the physical ability to be at least an above-average regular, but frequent mechanical issues with his swing -- along with the team's tinkering -- and poor instincts on the field have held him back. The Phils are in a rare situation for them where they can guarantee him at-bats through the end of the season without having to worry about the standings, which is the right thing to do for him and for the team.

This is Keith Law's stuff.
 
SportsJunkie said:
3 spare projects? go do your research bro. all the players that got traded today for cubs do not fit long term plans.
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Where did I say anything about Soto or Dempster fitting into long-term plans? I was commenting on the idea that Theo did work when, in reality, he traded away rentals for spare prospects.

None of the guys the Rangers traded for Soto/Dempster profile as big league regulars and weren't near the Rangers upper-echelon group. Villanueva might be an average ML third baseman but at 21 in Class-A and not exactly lighting it up, meh. Dudes were tweeting today tht he might be a Top 100 prospect, but nobody around the Rangers really thinks he was in their Top 15 or so guys and he was clearly the best of the bunch.

That's Theo doing work? I just don't think so. He didn't get anybody that was certain to contribute long-term or ready to step in today and help. Theo did fine and did exactly what the Cubs should have done. I know that's exciting and new for you guys, though. :lol:
 
From Fangraphs:

Today’s Trades.

For those of you just playing catch-up, here’s a rundown of the deals that were made before the deadline today.

Philadelphia Phillies send OF Hunter Pence to San Francisco for C Tommy Joseph, OF Nate Schierholtz, and RP Seth Rosin.

Pence analysis here, Prospects analysis here

Philadelphia Phillies send OF Shane Victorino to Los Angeles Dodgers for RP Josh Lindblom and SP Ethan Martin.

Trade analysis here

Chicago Cubs send SP Ryan Dempster to the Texas Rangers for 3B Christian Villanueva and SP Kyle Hendricks.

Dempster analysis here. Prospect analysis here

Kansas City Royals send RP Jonathan Broxton to the Cincinnati Reds for SP J.C. Sulbaran and RP Donnie Joseph.

Broxton analysis here.

Miami Marlins send 1B Gaby Sanchez and RP Kyle Kaminska to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Gorkys Hernandez and a competitive balance pick in the 2013 draft.

Sanchez analysis here.

Arizona Diamondbacks send RP Craig Breslow to the Boston Red Sox for RP Matt Albers and OF Scott Podsednik.

Miami Marlins send RP Edward Mujica to the St. Louis Cardinals for 3B Zack Cox.

New York Yankees send RP Chad Qualls to the Pittsburgh Pirates for 3B Casey McGehee.

Boston Red Sox send 1B Lars Anderson to the Cleveland Indians for SP Steven Wright.

You can find stats for each player by clicking on their name above, and find analysis of the deals in the posts here on the main page.

Pirates Take Calculated Risk In Acquiring Sanchez.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have built up a pretty good farm system under Neal Huntington’s watch. Our own Marc Hulet ranked them ninth before the season, and over at ESPN, Keith Law ranked them eighth. They have also simulteanously been upgrading their Major League core, and have morphed into a contender this season. To do this at the same time, you have to get a little bit lucky, and you have to be a little bit creative and you can’t be squeamish about taking risks. They showed the latter two elements in trades both yesterday — when they acquired Travis Snider — and today by making two deals that essentially swap out Casey McGehee for Gaby Sanchez.

The first, and more important deal, sends outfielder Gorkys Hernandez and a 2013 competitive balance draft picks to the Marlins for Gaby Sanchez and minor league reliever Kyle Kaminska. According to Jim Callis from Baseball America, that pick is currently slated to be the 33rd selection in next year’s draft, and will carry a $1.525 million price tag, which is none too shabby, especially for a player that wasn’t even on the active roster. It would be very easy to declare this a huge win for the Marlins, especially if they no longer considered the 28-year old Sanchez to be part of the future in Miami (small caveat — here’s the list of players picked at #33 — not a lot of All-Stars in that group. Though obviously that doesn’t mean Miami won’t get someone good). That they also get a wild card in Hernandez, who once upon a time (2009, to be exact) was a top-100 prospect, and is still just 24 years old, is a nice get.

At the same time, this deal is no skin off of the Pirates’ collective backs. For one, Hernandez likely never had a place in Pittsburgh even before the team acquired Snider. And second, while the draft pick would be nice, it means nothing to the Pirates at this point. They didn’t do anything to earn it, and they have two first-round picks next season anyway. Even better, they may have acquired the perfect platoon-mate for Garrett Jones. McGehee had been filling that role, but Sanchez could prove an upgrade for two reasons.

For starters, Sanchez won’t cost as much going forward. McGehee is making $2.5375 million this season, and just by being in the majors and playing in 90 percent of his team’s games this season, his salary was likely to go by at least $500,000, but probably closer to $1 million. Sanchez, on the other hand, hasn’t yet reached arbitration, and any first-year bump he will get is going to be dampened by his being optioned to Triple-A earlier this season.

The second reason is that Sanchez is probably just plain better than McGehee. Since the start of 2011, success has been fleeting for McGehee. He hit .291/.360/.532 across 89 plate appearances this June, but remove that month and he has hit .219/.277/.337 across 804 PA since the start of ’11. There’s also the question of which McGehee is the real McGehee — is it the guy who posted a 6 wRC+ against lefties last season, or the one who has posted a 119 wRC+ against them this season?

There are, to be certain, questions surrounding Sanchez’s play. In the season’s first two months, his plate discipline eroded, while his strikeout percentage ticked further north. For a guy who was such a disciplined hitter coming into the season, it was a troubling development, as was his newfound inability to hit a fastball. Then again, both may have been flukes. Back in Triple-A, Sanchez’s walk-rate re-inflated, as did his ISO and SLG. Now, granted, he’s facing inferior competition there, but Sanchez wouldn’t exactly be the first Marlins player to suffer a demotion, be traded, and then find success elsewhere. Sanchez has always hit lefties well — to the tune of a 137 wRC+ — so if his plate discipline sticks once he returns to the majors, he should make a great platoon partner.

When the Bucs parted with Brad Lincoln, Huntington said he would find a reliever in short order, and he actually found two in Kaminski and Chad Qualls, who was acquired from the Yankees for McGehee. Qualls has been much maligned this year, but if you look at his splits the last three seasons, you find that he while lefties are firebombing him, he is doing just fine against right-handed hitters. Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle probably would have preferred someone who could fill Lincoln’s exact role, as Hurdle frequently pushed Lincoln past the three-out barrier. Then again, few managers like to burn through their bullpen playing matchups like Hurdle does, so Qualls may work out just fine as a ROOGY.

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were fluke contenders, and they faded as the summer progressed. This summer, they are legitimate contenders, and Neal Huntington and Co. have done their best to augment their core while not robbing their future at the same time. In netting Gaby Sanchez for a draft pick, and then turning the dead wood that was Casey McGehee into a reliever who may replace some of what they lost in Brad Lincoln, the Pirates made some calculated gambles. But the payoff is a balanced roster with upside. Sanchez isn’t going to carry Pittsburgh to October, but if he hits the way he did last season, and this season in Triple-A, he and Garrett Jones will form a very effective first-base tandem.

Reds Beef Up Strong Bullpen With Broxton.

The Cincinnati Reds acquired right-handed relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for minor-league pitchers Donnie Joseph (LHP) and J.C. Sulbaran (RHP). Broxton signed a one-year deal with the Royals for $5.6 million and has been the Royals closer. He will be a free agent at the end of this season.

Joseph has pitched in relief for the Reds’ Double-A and Triple-A teams this season. Subaran has been a starter for the Reds’ Double-A squad.

The Reds’ acquisition of Broxton was a bit surprising, given the strength of Cincinnati’s bullpen this season. As we profiled last week, Aroldis Chapman has been lights out as the Reds’ closer, posting record-breaking strikeout numbers with his 100 mph fastball and his nasty slider. But Chapman’s not the only Reds reliever having a strong season. Overall, the bullpen has posted a 10.23 K/9, a .79 HR/9, and a .216 batting average against. Walks have been a bit of a problem, particularly for right-handed relievers Logan Ondrusek and Jose Arredondo. Broxton somewhat adds to that problem.

The burly right-hander was having a nice season for the Royals, but is no longer the dominant closer he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers from 2007 to 2009. Broxton’s strikeout numbers — which used to rival what Chapman is doing this year — have steadily declined; his K/9 this season is at 6.31, the lowest of his career. Broxton has gotten his walk rate under control — now at 3.53/9 — after a disastrous season of walks with the Dodgers in 2011. He’s also been much stingier with home runs this season, but that may very well change as he moves from the spacious Kauffman Stadium to the launching pad at Great American Ballpark.

USA Today is reporting that the Reds will use Broxton in the 8th inning to set-up Chapman in the 9th. But a mix-and-match scenario with left-hander Sean Marshall makes more sense. Marshall’s been effective against all batters this season with a 5.75 K/BB and a 2.39 FIP in 38 innings pitched. On the other hand, Marshall hasn’t yielded a home run to a left-handed batter all season and posts a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate against left-handed batters.

The Reds added to a strength by trading for Broxton. Cincinnati’s bullpen has performed well so far this season, but also been one of the least used ‘pens at only 273.1 innings to date. Manager Dusty Baker will have more flexibility in the later innings to use Broxton against right-handed batters and Sean Marshall against lefties. That will free up Arredondo, Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon and Sam LeClure for middle relief.

Overall, the Broxton trade may not have been a necessary one for the division-leading Reds, but it makes them stronger down the stretch.

Rangers Swoop In On Ryan Dempster.

With Ryan Dempster unwilling to go to Atlanta and the Dodgers unwilling to pay up, the door opened on this trading deadline afternoon for the Rangers to swoop in and grab one of the season’s most surprising starting pitchers. Texas will send right-hander Kyle Hendricks and infielder Christian Villanueva to the Cubs to complete the deal.

For the Rangers, dealing with injuries to Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis as well as the ineffectiveness of Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman, starting pitching suddenly became a need. The Rangers are six games clear of a Wild Card and a near-lock to make the playoffs, but the Athletics and Angels are within 3.5 and 4.0 games respectively, and with the Angels nabbing Zack Greinke a division title is by on means locked up. The Rangers sensed a need for starting depth and pounced.

Dempster leaves the National League behind only Ryan Vogelsong for the ERA lead at 2.25. Even though his peripheral statistics aren’t so lofty, Dempster is indeed enjoying a career year by many measures. A career low 2.34 BB/9 has his FIP down to 3.41, tied for his best mark as a full-time starter. His 3.07 K/BB ratio is a career high and his first time over three.

The environment Dempster is about to enter will be the toughest he has pitched in over his entire career. It will be his first time in the American League, facing designated hitters and generally superior rosters than in the NL Central. The Ballpark in Arlington is the toughest park he’s ever had to pitch in — Wrigley Field can be unfriendly, but Texas has a 109 home run park factor, well above the 104 for Chicago.

Dempster increasingly become a flyball pitcher over his last three seasons as well, dropping from 47.4% in 2010 to 44.1% in 2011 to 42.1% this season. Dempster has been human at home with the Cubs, posting a 2.82 ERA and a 4.44 FIP largely thanks to a 1.21 HR/9. More of the same — at least in regards to the home run ball — is likely in Texas.

Still, Dempster projects as an average to above-average pitcher — ZiPS has him for a 3.92 FIP the rest of the way — and that’s all the Rangers need given their current injury struggles. Neftali Feliz hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy in the rotation and could be better served in the bullpen. Scott Feldman has a 4.61 career FIP as a starter. Roy Oswalt is serving up almost two homers per nine innings. The Rangers can now run a playoff rotation of Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Dempster and Derek Holland without worrying about any of their struggling or injured pieces, and the difference between Dempster and Feldman could be the difference between a division title or a one-game Wild Card play-in.

The Rangers had to take on nearly $5 million in salary to make the deal happen, and the prospects aren’t valueless either. Mike Newman just wrote up Villanueva as a sleeper prospect and Hendricks has been solid in the low minors, if a bit old for the level. To fill the biggest need on the major league level, however, such a price is minimal, leaving the Rangers well positioned for the season’s final two months.

UPDATE: Anthony Andro of Fox Sports Southwest reported Neftali Feliz will undergo Tommy John surgery. That may be why the Rangers swooped in for Dempster at the last minute — conceivably, the Rangers could have ran a rotation of Darvish, Feliz, Harrison, Holland and Oswalt, but with Feliz out Feldman would have been necessary for the rest of the season. With Dempster a clear upgrade over Feldman Oswalt (see update 2), the decision was necessary for Texas.

UPDATE 2: Roy Oswalt is headed to the bullpen for the Rangers.

Philly Receives Respectable Return for Hunter Pence.

The San Francisco Giants have secured a veteran outfielder for the stretch run but it comes at the cost of a young catching prospect.

Tommy Joseph, 21, was the organization’s second round draft pick in 2009 and he’s moved methodically through the minor league system, one level each year, and landed in double-A to begin the 2012 season. Despite being known as an offensive-minded catcher, the Arizona native has yet to post a wRC+ above 95, meaning he’s struggled to produce league-average offense. Despite that, he’s shown raw power potential and slugged 22 home runs in 127 high-A games last season. This season his isolated power rating has dipped to .132 (from .198 in ’11).

Joseph doesn’t hit for average, his walk rate is modest and he flirts with 20% strikeout rates so he’ll need to remain at catcher to have any true value at the big league level. Defensively, he’s made strides in the finer aspects of his game, which is good news because his strong arm would be wasted at first base and he just doesn’t have the type of profile that hints at future success there.

Philadelphia currently has the underrated Carlos Ruiz starting behind the plate at the big league level but he’s already 33 and won’t be around forever. The club’s best catching prospect – prior to this deal – was Sebastian Valle who also has a number of question marks surrounding his future potential in the majors. Prior to the season, I ranked Valle as the Phillies’ third best prospect in a relatively weak system and he appears to have taken a small step back this season. Joseph, on the other hand, was ranked as the Giants’ third best prospect in another weak system and his value has held steady.

Joseph and Valle are both currently playing at the double-A level and neither has performed well enough to warrant a promotion so they may split time behind the dish while Joseph also sees some time at first base. The former is likely about a year away from receiving his first cup of coffee with the big league club.

For me, the real steal of the deal may be Seth Rosin. I ranked the right-handed reliever in the “Sleeper Alert” section of the Giants 2011-12 Top 15 prospect list and said, “If you’re a rival executive talking trade with the Giants this winter you’ll want to ask for Rosin as a throw in to any deal.” It’s nice of Philadelphia to listen.

The North Dakota native and University of Minnesota alum has been a little slower to develop – like many cold weather state prospects – but he’s produced solid minor league numbers and has a decent repertoire, including a low-90s fastball, curveball and changeup. He also has strong frame and has been durable.

Rosin, 23, has been pitching in high-A ball and currently has a 4.31 ERA but his FIP is more than a full run lower at 3.18. His strikeout rate currently sits at 10.86 K/9 and he’s showcased solid control. He’s made some spot starts and could be a useful bullpen arm at the big league level. In the grand scheme of things a middle reliever and spot starter does not have huge value but he could be a solid, cost-controlled commodity for three to six big league seasons.

The third player headed to Philadelphia is outfielder Nate Schierholtz who has struggled to find consistent playing time at the big league level but was coveted by a few teams. He’ll basically perform at a league-average level until Philadelphia acquires or promotes someone with more potential. He’s currently earning $1.3 million in 2012 and could be non-tendered this fall as an arbitration-eligible player.

Giants Upgrade Their Outfield With Hunter Pence.

The San Francisco Giants today acquired Hunter Pence from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for outfielder Nate Schierholtz, catching prospect Tommy Joseph, and right-handed pitcher Seth Rosin, who’s still in Single-A. The Giants will be responsible for the remainder of Pence’s $10.4 million salary for this season. Update: The Giants will receive cash from the Phillies to cover some portion of the $3.3 million remaining on Pence’s salary this season, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Next season will be Pence’s last year of arbitration-eligibility after which he will become a free agent.

Pence is a right fielder and will replace the Gregor Blanco-Nate Schierholtz platoon that’s patrolled right field at AT&T Park this season. Pence will upgrade the Giants on offense but could be a liability on defense, particularly in the tricky corners of the right-field wall and Triples Alley at AT&T.

So far this season, Pence is batting .271/.336/.447 with a .339 wOBA and a 111 wRC+. Even with that line, Pence may be the right-handed power bat the Giants have been searching for. Pence is no Carlos Beltran, who the Giants acquired at last year’s deadline, but he’s hit 17 home runs this season, making him the immediate leader on the Giants. Schierholtz and Blanco, both left-handed hitters, have combined for ten home runs so far this season.

AT&T can be hard on power hitters, but it suppresses left-handed power to a much greater extent than right-handed power. According to Statcorner, the home run park factor for left-handed hitters at AT&T is 66; for righties, it’s 88. In 82 career plate appearances at AT&T Park, Pence has batted .329/.366/.566 with three doubles and five home runs.

Blanco, a non-roster invitee, had an excellent spring and won the the right field job over Schierholtz. His overall line for the season is .245/.337/.362 with a .321 wOBA and a 101 wRC+. But Blanco built much of that line with excellent play in May and has slumped badly in June and July. That opened the door for Schierholtz, who’s batted .257/.327/.429 with a .321 wOBA and a 102 wRC+ so far this season. Schierholtz has been in the Giants organization his entire career but didn’t hit consistently enough to be an every day player.

The addition of Pence will also give the Giants flexibility in center field. Angel Pagan has held that position all season but, like Blanco, is mired in a slump. Pagan, a switch hitter, is batting .210/.244/.309 in July after igniting the Giants offense with .375/.422/.462 in May. Pagan’s defense in center field has also been sub-par. He seems to have trouble reading the ball off the bat and often breaks the wrong way on fly balls to the outfield. Blanco is an excellent defender and could steady the outfield defense for the Giants, especially with Pence in right field.

With the rival Dodgers making big moves in the last week, the Giants had no choice to counter with their own. Even if Pence gets hot, he’s not the kind of hitter that can carry a team offensively. But with Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera having great seasons at the plate, Pence adds another dimension the Giants have been missing. When Pablo Sandoval returns from the disabled list, where he’s nursing a strained hamstring, the Giants lineup will look more balanced and formidable.

Dodgers Get Shane Victorino for Nothing They’ll Miss.

Okay, they didn’t actually get him for nothing. To acquire the Phillies center fielder (who will almost certainly play left in LA), the Dodgers gave up 25-year-old reliever Josh Lindblom and enigmatic right-handed pitching prospect Ethan Martin. Reports are that the Dodgers felt comfortable moving Lindblom after acquiring Brandon League from the Mariners last night, but in reality, they should have always been comfortable trading Josh Lindblom for value, because Josh Lindblom is simply not a particularly valuable player.

Over the last two years, Lindblom has thrown 77 innings in the big leagues and posted a 2.91 ERA, so on the surface, he appears to be a good young relief pitcher. In reality, though, there are warning signs everywhere.

Lindblom is an extreme fly ball pitcher, as only 69 of his 141 career balls in play (34.3%) have been hit on the ground. Not surprisingly, that has translated into a bit of a home run problem, as he’s given up 1.05 HR/9, a bit above the league average for NL relievers. But, HR-prone fly ball guys can still be good relievers as long as they pound the strike zone and miss a lot of bats.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, Lindblom has been essentially average at those two things as well. His 9.0% BB%/22.7% K% are just barely ahead of the average marks for an NL reliever (9.2 BB%/21.7% K%), and are supported by the underlying numbers as well — he throws an average number of strikes and gets an average amount of contact.

Toss in the significant career platoon split (.244 wOBA allowed to RHBs, .360 wOBA to LHBs), and Lindblom essentially profiles as a decent situational middle reliever. This is basically the same skillset the Dodgers got in Brandon League, so their bullpen won’t take much of a hit at all in this series of moves.

While the Phillies were unlikely to retain Victorino beyond this season and may not have wanted to risk making him a $12 million qualifying offer to get draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere, getting an okay reliever and a prospect who is probably a reliever is still an underwhelming haul for one of the better position players to change places this summer. Victorino isn’t having the same kind of All-Star season he had a year ago, but his high contact/gap power/great baserunning/good defense package is still quite valuable. Even without as much power as he showed a year ago, he’s at +2.1 WAR in 431 plate appearances. Average hitters who do everything else well are nifty pieces, and the Dodgers just got a big upgrade in left field without having to give up much to get it.

Victorino replaces a black hole of a job share in left field, pushing Bobby Abreu and Tony Gwynn back to the bench where they belong. Given that he’s also replacing guys who were offering no production, this trade has the potential to offer the same kind of upgrade as last week’s Hanley Ramirez acquisition. The Dodgers have to be thrilled that they could solve their left field issues at this kind of low price, and they continue to put pressure on the Giants to make a counter if they want to keep pace in the NL West. This new Dodgers roster is a lot better than the one they were running out there two weeks ago.

For the Phillies, you can understand why they made this deal, assuming they weren’t going to give Victorino a qualifying offer in order to get draft pick compensation, but getting a bad command fly ball reliever and a bad command fly ball pitching prospect is not exactly a huge return. The Dodgers have to be pleased with how the last few weeks have gone, and if they add Ryan Dempster this afternoon, they might just be the big trade deadline winners.

Cubs Gamble on Vizcaino, Sell Low on Soto.

“As a whole, not specifically regarding potential deals, we need to add a lot of pitching to the system. It’s not enough to have a handful or two. You need waves and waves coming through your system, and we don’t have that. We hardly have even one wave coming, so we need to rebuild a lot of pitching depth.”

–Theo Epstein, July 18, 2012

On Monday night, the Chicago Cubs executed a pair of trades, sending players to both the Braves and the Rangers in exchange for pitching, pitching, pitching. Here’s the breakdown of those trades:

Braves get:
SP Paul Maholm
OF Reed Johnson

Cubs get:
SP Arodys Vizcaino
RP Jaye Champman

***

Rangers get:
C Geovany Soto

Cubs get:
SP Jake Brigham

The Braves trade feels a bit like a fleecing for the Cubs; the Rangers trade is at best a wash. Let us see why.

The Braves Trade

First: We must reiterate the fact that there is not always a “winner” and “loser” in the MLB trade market. Teams are often trading from strengths and according to their seasonal situation, meaning the result is not a zero sum gain, but instead both teams are benefiting.

And so, when I say the Cubs performed a bit of deadline sorcery, I am saying this more as a credit to the Cubs than a shaming on the Braves. Entering the 2012 MLB season, the Cubs had little chance to reach the playoffs, and therefore little reason to sign the likes of Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. But Johnson, as I observed at the time, was pretty sharp for a fourth outfielder — and by limiting him to playing his strengths, a team could extract some steady WAR from him. And Maholm had been a steady performer with the Pirates over the previous three seasons, limiting his HR/FB rate and keeping his FIP low.

Both players were solid bets for decent production. So Johnson and Maholm got one-year deals, plus a team option second year for Maholm, at reasonable, if not discounted, rates. Around the time of the signing, it looked like the Cubs were starting to put together a team in the low 80s win category, and they might even be able to compete for the second Wild Card, but that was before Chris Volstad, Travis Wood and Randy Wells collectively laid a big egg and Fate handed the Cubs a 12-game losing streak.

But in the case that things did play out like this, Theo Epstein and company had still done a solid job identifying some undervalued talent on the market and grabbed two players who were clearly not apart of their long-term plans.

So, in many ways, this trade cost the Cubs nothing. Johnson and Maholm were brought in purely on speculative purposes — in speculation of a potential run at the Wild Card and, more importantly, in speculation of a possible trade deadline deal. And considering what they received in exchange, that speculation appears to have paid dividends.

Arodys Vizaino had Tommy John Surgery in during the 2012 Spring Training, but even despite the fact he will not throw a pitch until 2013, he is all but guaranteed to be the Cubs top prospect now. Marc Hulet ranked him No. 2 in a Braves system thick with talented pitching. For all the sensation that Anthony Rizzo has become on the north side, Vizcaino has the potential to be the same on the pitching side.

In 2011 — as a mere 20-year-old — Vizcaino appeared in 17 games as a reliever, and managed a 3.54 FIP and 3.82 SIERA, and he entered 2012 in competition for a rotation spot. Theo’s stated goal this trade season was to add pitching depth, and he just found a crown jewel for his prospect system.

It seems surprising the Braves would let Vizcaino — who was “untouchable” in 2011 — go for the price of two role-playing veterans, but perhaps they are much less optimistic he can retain his silly command post-surgery? Maybe they are displeased with his progress during the recovery? We do not know.

Chapman, a 25-year-old reliever with decent numbers in his second go-round in Triple-A, is a nice grab for a team that will need to construct a serious bullpen sometime in the next three years. But for now, the Cubs don’t need a bullpen and Chapman doesn’t profile much more than a middle reliever.

Rangers Trade

Whereas the Braves trade appears like a stroke of market-manipulating genius from the Epstein/Hoyer group, the Rangers trade feels more like a “That’s it?” scenario. At one time — I know the time, actually; it was 2008 and then later it was 2010 — catcher Geovany Soto looked like a beacon of hope in a Jim Hendry franchise gone old-school. Soto not only fielded the toughest position on the diamond in a, you know, not bad fashion, he also did something that no Cubs hitter in the Hendry era seemed inclined to do: He took walks.

In 2008, Soto had 23 homers and a .364 OBP. In 2010, he clapped 17 dongers and raised up to a .393 OBP. But injuries were too often his bedfellow, and he seemed incapable of staying on the field a full season. Add to that an easing creep of decline in his numbers, and suddenly Geo is getting traded for — no offense, Jake — Jacob Brigham.

A little about Brigham: He is in Double-A for the second straight year; he is 24 years old; and he has not had a FIP below 4.23 since 2010, and even then, his FIP sky-rocketed to 4.76 when he moved from Single-A ball to High-A. He has trouble controlling his walks, but can also strike out a few. His home run rate (per PA) appears to be high this season, so there is a good chance his current 4.58 FIP is a good deal higher than his xFIP, but all told, Brigham is not a prospect. Not for the Rangers, at least.

Still, he might develop into a low rotation pitcher, or perhaps a useful bullpen cog, but his potential does not seem to match Geo’s history, so to speak.

Was this a bad trade for the Cubs? Well Soto’s bat at present appears to be a very strong candidate for regression, but the injury history suggests he could break again at any moment. In fact, his limited playing time this season may suggest the team lacked confidence in his overall health. Meanwhile, the Cubs have Wellington Castillo — likely now called up — and Steve Clevenger. Castillo once ranked as a No. 14 prospect for the Cubs, and he could perceivably win the starting job rather quickly. He is already 25, though, and he and Clevenger might both end up being just average-ish catchers.

All told, though, the Cubs traded from a strength — their catching situation, which had three decent options — to build on their weakness and achieve their stated goal. It is just a little surprising that Brigham was all they got in return, but who knows? In 10 years, this may be the Infamous Brigham Trade, and my descendants will come back to this spot and put a placard on where I stood to say, “That’s it?” And Brigham’s descendants will write movie scripts and include mentions of how nobody thought a young man from central Florida could become THE Jacob Brigham.

So good luck Jake. You’ll need it — because the tides of the Cubs minor league system are starting to swell with the influx of pitching talent.

Braves Scoop Up Useful Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson.

The Braves are taking a long-term risk for a short-term gain in trading Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman for Reed Johnson and Paul Maholm. The most talented player in the deal is obviously Arodys Vizcaino, but he also comes with a ton of question marks.

Johnson and Maholm will be asked to do exactly what they did in Chicago. Johnson will be a spot starter in the outfield against tough left-handed pitchers or on days when Chipper Jones rests, and Maholm is expected to fill in the back end of a rotation that has been troubled by inconsistency all season.

The Braves were one of the big names courting Ryan Dempster, but may have made out better for the cheaper Maholm, who also has a $6.5 club option for 2013. Here are their respective FIP- over the past three years:

Dempster: of 96, 98, 84
Maholm: 106, 100, 101

Obviously, Dempster is more talented, but not by a significant enough margin that would justify the cost of a player with as high of a floor in Randall Delgado for two months of Dempster. In the past, Maholm showed the ability to limit home runs, mostly due to pitching in a pitcher friendly ballpark in Pittsburgh. He has a career HR/9 of 0.68 at home and 1.01 in away games, and his move to a relatively pitcher friendly park in Turner Field should allow his home run rate to tick back near its former levels. For comparison, his HR/9 this year jumped up to 0.88 in his first year in Wrigley Field while he maintained a comparable 0.92 HR/9 away from Chicago.

If Maholm is able to lower his home run rate back down closer to the levels he became accustomed to in Pittsburgh, he should be a very effective starter. The addition of his cutter over the past few years, specifically in an uptick in frequency this year, has allowed him to post a career high strikeout percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those numbers combined with a move to a pitcher friendly park could push his FIP- to a better than league average mark. With four consecutive years with a WAR above 2 and a current mark of 1.6, it is easy to expect Maholm to be worth the $6.5 million option next season. He is far from a flashy pitcher as his fastball velocity sits at around 87 mph, but he changes speeds well and induces ground balls roughly 50% of the time which allows him to be a a surprisingly effective pitcher. With Ben Sheets always being an injury risk, Tommy Hanson‘s velocity dropping, Mike Minor having an up-and-down season despite solid performances as of late, a solid starter like Maholm fits perfectly into the Braves plans for the next year and a half.

Johnson is the type of player the Braves have been trying to acquire for years. In trading for Matt Diaz last season, the Braves attempted to fill in the right-handed bat to spell their plethora of left-handed hitters and round out their bench. Diaz’s injury and ineffectiveness made it necessary to search for a player like Johnson, a more versatile outfielder who still hits lefties at a high level. The Braves bench has been a problem, as outside of Juan Francisco they lack a quality hitter due to Eric Hinske‘s problems at the plate and Fredi Gonzalez’s unwillingness to burn David Ross as a pinch hitter. Johnson gives the team a solid late game pinch hitter against left-handed relievers, and will allow Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward to stay fresh down the stretch run.

These are not the two players that will necessarily cause the Braves to jump over the Nationals or to run away in the wild card race, but they help round out their roster nicely. The rotation still looks underwhelming when planning for the playoffs, but with an offense that has scored more runs than every team in the NL outside of St. Louis, a pitcher who can keep the team in the game and a lefty masher are quality acquisitions to enhance the Braves postseason chances.
 
That's what I'm gettin at, we never get prospects, good or bad. And Theo has done nothin but stack em since he got there. He's pulled in like 10-12 pospects since October. Rizzo bein one of them. Then whatever his haul was during the draft. In a year or two if one or two of those guys sprinkle in and make an impact, or even allow him to flip them to add pieces, then he's doin something we haven't had since, late 80's when we produced Grace, Palmeiro, Moyer, Maddux, Walton, Smith etc. And not all of those guys were supposed to be major impacts, minus Grace and Maddux.

Now we just have to flip Sori and Garza for some sort of haul and I'm happy as can be. Hopefully our org can work with some of these kids and profuce somethin out of em.
 
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