2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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ooIRON MANoo said:
WearinTheFourFive said:
The Dodgers ownership went out and made the sexy move, but I don't know how well it will really help them long term.
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Sexy move that the A's were going to make? Sounds like sour grapes.

long term? This is a low risk move, if Hanley turns it around and becomes the player people thought he would be this trade is a boom for the Dodgers. If he continues his slide, and is a bust, then we gave up a no. 3 starter (at best). Low risk, high reward. The money, who cares about the money now, this is how big market teams operate, they take on contracts. I'm more happy about that, than getting Hanley. Finally operating like a big market team.
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It would've been a good move, if the Marlins were picking up half the remaining contract (like they were going to if they traded him to the A's). So yeah, the Dodgers made a dumb move.
 
Philadelphia pretty much had to pay Hamels, though they showed a lack of foresight in how they approached negotiations. No point in having all that money tied into those older players, and yet being a frontline pitcher short of a contender.

Plus their TV deal expires in a few years, and they'll want to keep the best possible product on the field so they can get the best possible deal. Read that they led the majors in local ratings last season, and it's the fourth biggest TV market so they're bound for a huge windfall.

Seems Hamilton has some new issue every year. **** is tired.
 
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I said it in the A's thread and I'll say it here, I think we should have pulled the trigger for Hanley. I know his contract is bad but we don't have many commitments and most our guys are under team control for a while. I have no problem taking on a bad contract, I just don't want to give up top prospects because our farm isn't deep enough. I hope Beane can pull the trigger for someone else because the left side of our infield is :x.
 
abovelegit1 said:
Seems Hamilton has some new issue every year. **** is tired.
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Talking about Josh? He's literally just flailing at everything right now and hasn't made any adjustments to break this slump...

He's so out of sync it seems like the last few nights he's had guys throwing 92-94 MPH fastballs out over the plate daring him to hit them and he's swinging through them. Beckett challenged him all night tonight with fastballs and he couldn't put the bat on them..

He's not working counts and just swinging early in the count at anything trying to put the ball in play. Between him and watching Michael Young's abortion every time he steps to the plate or has a ball hit in his direction... Ugh. :x
 
Yeah, agreed with everything you said. Beckett isn't fooling anyone these days, and he made Josh look bad on average fastballs w/ static movement. But my new issue comment was more in reference to him coming out saying he's out of sorts mentally, which really seems like a seasonal thing with him. Slumps happen all the time, but if it's constantly affecting your mentality it has to be said that you're mentally weak.

Sidenote: MLBTV w/ the ipad is a God send.
 
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Prospects losing trade value.

I was talking to a front-office executive last week who was lamenting about the disappointing season of a certain highly regarded prospect in the system. He's the kind of player who could have been the centerpiece of an attractive trade package, but not anymore.



It's important to keep in mind that prospects serve two purposes to the organization. The first, obviously, is to produce at the big league level for the parent team. The second -- and equally important purpose at this time of year -- is to be a means of acquiring big league talent for a playoff run.



With that in mind, here are some players whose clubs wish were currently worth more as valuable pieces in a trade deadline package.




New York Yankees: Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances


When dumping high-priced players, teams tend to want in return someone who is close to big league ready. Players fitting that profile provide less risk, and they also serve a public relations role by showing the fans what the team got back. The Yankees began the year with two highly regarded pitchers at Triple-A who pretty much represented the sum of their upper-level talent, but both have had disastrous 2012 campaigns.




After reeling off a trio of impressive starts, left-handed Banuelos struggled with his control in a May 18 outing, hit the disabled list with what was described as elbow soreness, and hasn't pitched since. Betances, a right-hander, has had an even more disturbing year. His messy delivery has always been a concern, but he's completely fallen apart mechanically, earning a demotion to Double-A after putting up a 6.39 ERA in the International League with 69 walks in 74 2/3 innings. He's had mixed results since returning to the Eastern League, but his trade value couldn't be lower.




Baltimore Orioles: Parker Bridwell, Jason Esposito, Nick Delmonico


Along with the big league ready players, teams often look for that high-ceiling kid at Low-A, and other than Dylan Bundy's remarkable start at the beginning of the year, it's been nothing but bad news for Baltimore's Sally League affiliate. Right-hander Bridwell entered the year as the big kid with upside who throws hard, and he has a 6.30 ERA.



Esposito is a second-round pick out of Vanderbilt who should dominate at this level, and he's hitting .225/.281/.297. Delmonico received a $1.525 million bonus as a sixth-round pick and is hitting .249/.344/.396 while looking like a first-base-only type. That's three potential trade pieces off the table, and without finding prospects around studs like Bundy and shortstop Manny Machado, it leaves the Orioles in a bind when it comes to making a major move.




Washington Nationals: Anthony Rendon, Sammy Solis, Matt Purke


When players get hurt, they can't develop, and scouts don't see them. That automatically causes a downgrade in a player's stock, and the Nationals have lost three of their top prospects this year to injuries, which eliminates them from any possible trade scenarios.



Rendon, the club's 2011 first-rounder, missed much of the year with an ankle injury, and is only now starting to get game action in the Gulf Coast League. And though he likely would not have moved anyway, teams need a stud to lead off a package for a top pitcher, and the Nationals lost two big arms in left-handers Solis (Tommy John surgery) and big-money 2011 pick Purke (shoulder). It's left Washington a bit handcuffed in terms of getting a deal done.




Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran


There are trade targets and then there is Zack Greinke. While he isn't absolutely available, it's certain that no trade for Greinke happens without the Milwaukee Brewers acquiring a top-flight prospect in return. That puts the Braves in a bit of a bind, as they have some depth in their system but right-hander Julio Teheran is their only stud -- the only guy who could bring back a player like Greinke.



Teheran has had an off-year while still struggling to find some consistency with his breaking ball. With an ERA approaching 5.00 at Triple-A Gwinnett, he still has the potential to be a frontline starter, but the Braves don't want to trade their only top-notch prospect, especially when his value has been lowered by the tough year. By all accounts, Atlanta is in on Greinke, but it's hard to see the Braves competing with the more attractive packages that a team such as the Texas Rangers can float out there.




Los Angeles Dodgers: Joc Pederson, Tim Federowicz, Alex Castellanos


The Dodgers made the first blockbuster deal of the trade season late Tuesday night by sending right-hander Nate Eovaldi and minor leaguer Scott McGough to the Miami Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate. Prior to that deal, right-handers Garrett Gould and Allen Webster, along with Eovaldi, were the names floating around in possible trades and there's a reason for that: If you want to make a deal with the Dodgers, you'd better not be looking for a hitter.



It's the most unbalanced system in the game, with the top non-pitching prospect in the system being outfielder Pederson at High-A. There's an open debate as to who is the second-best hitting prospect behind Pederson. There are Triple-A players with likely (but limited) big league futures such as catcher Tim Federowicz and utilityman Alex Castellanos, or moderate-ceiling, high-risk players at the lower levels who just don't have value until they produce. Teams that don't want pitching have nothing to talk about here.



Kevin Goldstein covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has worked for Baseball Prospectus since 2006, where he is a national writer, and has covered the sport for a decade, with a focus on scouting, prospects and player development. He has previously worked for Baseball America and the self-started The Prospect Report. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.

Harper no ROY sure thing.

As we approach the dog days of summer, it's about the time of year when we can seriously start talking about MLB awards. Most of the big ones are still up for debate, but there seems to be an air of inevitability surrounding the rookie of the year awards, with people assuming Mike Trout will take home the trophy in the American League, and Bryce Harper in the NL.



There's no arguing with Trout, as he could probably stop playing today and still win the award, but Harper is another story, as his candidacy seems to be propped up by a whole lotta hype. So for a few minutes let's turn off the television, put down the newspaper, and let the statistics speak for themselves. Fact is, Harper has serious competition for NL Rookie of the Year, as a few under-the-radar standouts are making a strong case for the hardware.



Let's start in Milwaukee with Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki, who won three batting titles in the Japanese Central League before signing a two-year deal with Milwaukee last offseason. Aoki started the year on the bench, but when Mat Gamel's early-season knee injury pushed Corey Hart to first base, that opened the door for the international import in right.



Aoki's numbers match up quite well with Harper's, as he has an edge in batting average (.283 to .268) and OBP (.355 to .340) and trails slightly in slugging (.423 to .443). And if advanced metrics are more your thing, you might already know that Aoki has a tiny edge in wRC+ (117 to 116). Yes, Aoki is more than 10 years older than Harper, but there is plenty of precedent for Japanese imports, such as Ichiro Suzuki, coming over and winning ROY.



Also coming out of the National League Central is a sleeper candidate who has avoided big-time recognition, even within his own city. Third baseman Todd Frazier was supposed to take a back seat in Cincinnati this season to rookie shortstop Zack Cozart and first-year catcher Devin Mesoraco. Both highly touted prospects have performed well defensively, but batting averages of .245 and .216 have allowed the eyes of the future to rest on Frazier.

The Rutgers alum leads all NL rookies (min. 200 PAs) in SLG (.534), wOBA (.369), wRC+ (130) and FanGraphs version of WAR (1.9). (Andrelton Simmons of the Atlanta Braves has 1.8 WAR and is another ROY candidate, but he's out for a few more weeks with a broken pinkie and he's played in just 33 games.)



Veteran-favoring manager Dusty Baker has made it clear that a healthy Scott Rolen will start over Frazier at third. Luckily for the rookie's award hopes, Rolen already has made multiple trips to the DL this season, and Joey Votto's recent trip to the DL will mean even more playing time for Frazier, who can fill in at first as well as left field.



Finally, we cannot forget about Wade Miley of the Arizona Diamondbacks. After four seasons in the minors, Miley made seven starts for Arizona in 2011, building a record of 6-2. (To hold rookie status, a pitcher must not pitch more than 50 innings before Sept. 1 in any previous MLB season.) During 2012 spring training, he was not considered a serious candidate to make the D-backs' roster, let alone be a starter. Miley made three relief appearances before an injury to Daniel Hudson opened a spot in the rotation in April.



Miley, who has been a revelation for Arizona, joined Harper on the 2012 All-Star team. The southpaw currently tops all NL rookies with 11 wins, 85 strikeouts, and a 2.6 WAR, per FanGraphs. The anchor of Arizona's rotation in 2012, Miley has the team-best 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.



With these kinds of numbers, it seems unbelievable that Miley, Frazier and Aoki have been largely lost among national media outlets, heroes only to the stat sheets. Why has Harper become America's "chosen one," an All-Star in his first season?

The answer is a number that neither Aoki nor Frazier can match: 19, as in Harper's age when he first took the field as a National in April. Aoki is 30, practically an old man in the world of professional athletics, and Miley and Frazier are a not-so-flashy 25 and 26, respectively.

This fact alone makes Harper special because he has produced stats equal to the top rookies at a much younger age. But this is "rookie of the year" we're talking about, not the award for the player with the brightest future.



Should Harper's age give him an edge in the rookie of the year voting?



Based on stats and the history of the award, that's a clown question, bro.

Five blockbusters that make sense.

With less than a week before baseball's July 31 trade deadline, activity has picked up considerably. With so few sellers and contenders looking to solidify their rosters for a run on the postseason, some clubs might have to think much bigger on possible trades. In order to pry away some impact talent, they will have to give away some talent, too. Here are five major moves that I think could work for both "buyers" and "sellers."

Minnesota Twins send Francisco Liriano, Jared Burton, Justin Mourneau, Josh Willingham and cash to the San Francisco Giants for Brandon Belt, Kyle Crick, Mike Kickham and Heath Hembree

The Giants make a blockbuster move to get back to the World Series but at a serious long-term price. In Liriano, the Giants get another quality starting pitcher to put behind Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum. In Burton the Giants upgrade the back end of their bullpen to help the struggling Santiago Casilla. The Giants also add two middle-of-the-order bats with Willingham in right field and Mourneau at first base.

The Giants of course are banking on Morneau to have a strong second half after recovering from a wrist injury and concussion, but they don't seem to have faith in Belt and he should be playing somewhere. The Twins would have to also send enough cash to cover a good portion of the remainder of Morneau’s contract, which consists of what’s left on this year’s $14 million, as well as the $14 million due Morneau in 2013. But they're paying Morneau no matter what, they might as well get some talent for him while they can. All of these moves help the Giants win (and in 2013).

The Twins, on the other hand, get an inexpensive long-term solution at first base in Belt (who the Giants don't seem to have faith in), a top young starting pitching prospect in Crick, a future closer in Hembree and another middle-of-the-rotation starter in the southpaw Kickham. In this trade the Twins obviously build for the future and lower payroll significantly.



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Milwaukee Brewers send Zack Greinke to Los Angeles Angels for Jean Segura and Garrett Richards

The Milwaukee Brewers get a long-term solution at shortstop in Segura, who adds speed to the top of the Brewers lineup. Segura has been long regarded the Angels’ top middle infield prospect and with both Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick inked to long-term contracts, it only makes sense to use Segura to get a difference-making top-of-the-rotation starter like Greinke. Richards has a power arm and projects to be a quality No. 2 or No. 3 starter when his command comes around. The deal allows the Halos to hold on to top power-hitting prospect C.J. Cron and right-handed starter John Hellweg who could be a surprise contributor to the Angels come September.

Greinke has hinted to close friends that he would be willing to sign a long-term commitment with either the Angels or Braves if he was traded to one of the those two teams. With Greinke joining Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren in the rotation, the Angels quickly become a post-season favorite.



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Chicago Cubs send Matt Garza to the Atlanta Braves for Randall Delgado, J.R. Graham and Zeke Spruill

The Braves would control Garza beyond this year, and he would join Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson at the top of their rotation. The Chicago Cubs, who wanted to get Delgado in the Dempster transaction, would get Delgado in this deal instead, along with two other good arms in Graham and Spruill. Getting three young pitchers for their future staff is exactly what the Cubs want to do to carry out their long-term plan. The Garza acquisition puts the Braves in a much better position to contend with the Nationals or try to hold on to their thin wild card lead. Spruill has a 92-94 mph sinker with an above-average change and developing slider. Graham has a power arm and could start or close. He has a 95-mph fastball and a hard slider that has a wipe out break on occasion.



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Chicago Cubs send Ryan Dempster to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Ethan Martin and Garrett Gould

The deal would have the caveat that the Dodgers would get a 48-hour window to sign Dempster to a contract extension. Martin will sit in the 95 mph range with an above-average curve and a developing slider that he started throwing last year. When his command finally arrives, Martin will, too, and the 2008 first-rounder has finally started to show some promise this year at Double-A Chattanooga. Gould was the primary pitcher who would have gone to Miami in the Carlos Lee trade before Lee used his 10-and-5 rights to nix the deal. Gould will sit in the 92-93 mph range and couple that with a major-league average curve ball and changeup. The Cubs will have stockpiled five power arms to build for the future in just two trades.



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Tampa Bay Rays send James Shields and B.J. Upton to the Texas Rangers for Cody Buckel, Craig Gentry, Leury Garcia and Luke Jackson

The Rangers get another solid starter in Shields, who is still still striking out almost a batter per inning and on pace for more than 200 innings in a "down" year. Upton solidifies center field, thus allowing Josh Hamilton to move to left field full-time -- his best position -- so he can concentrate on getting his bat back to the dominating form he had in April and May. Rangers brass is convinced that Gentry is a breakout player whose success has been stunted because he’s been mixed and matched in the lineup rather than slotted an everyday player. In Tampa, Gentry would get that opportunity as the Rays’ every day center fielder. The Rays also would control Gentry for the next five years as opposed to Upton, who will be a free agent in October.

Buckel gives the the Rays another future impact starter while Jackson simply adds to their stockpile of good young arms. Garcia would rival Hak-Ju Lee for the title of the Rays’ best shortstop prospect; the Rangers can deal Garcia only because they have Andrus and Jurickson Profar. The Rangers also would be able to hold on to all three of their top prospects in Martin Perez, Mike Olt and Profar while upgrading their starting rotation for another shot at a world championship while the Rays make a sacrifice today for another shot at tomorrow.

Analyzing the Ramirez, Rodriguez trades.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have received virtually no production from the left side of their infield this year; their shortstops have hit .232/.285/.319, and their third basemen have hit .249/.308/.373, so wherever they play Hanley Ramirez, he's an upgrade, worth a win or more if he can return to shortstop for the rest of this season. It's a good use of the Dodgers' money to see if manager Don Mattingly can rejuvenate Ramirez's career the way he seems to have helped Matt Kemp's, but does carry risk that Ramirez's peak years are just gone.




While this is a solid buy-low move by the Dodgers, using their newfound cash to acquire a player who might otherwise be out of reach, there's also a pretty good chance that Ramirez's tenure as an above-average to star-caliber player is over. He has proven unequal to the task of defense at third base, a position he is more than athletic enough to handle but where he's been well below average, costing the Marlins between four and 10 runs this year depending on your defensive metric of choice. He's also shown less bat speed this year than he did in previous seasons, although he's really young to already see his hands slowing like that.



Ramirez is one of the only major leaguers I have ever seen where his effort level seemed to vary to the point where his performance was affected, and it is possible that a new environment will restore some of his lost production for that reason -- although that's a large gamble for any GM to take. A poor defensive shortstop or third baseman hitting .250/.320/.430 is not a $15 million player. The Dodgers also receive lefty specialist Randy Choate, highly effective against left-handed hitters but nearly useless against right-handed hitters.



For the Miami Marlins, as odious as it is to see the team move a large contract and increase the flow of public money into ownership's pockets, there's a lot of baseball sense in this trade. They clear $31.5 million over the next two years for a player who might only be worth 2-3 wins a year, and clearly wasn't going to be the bargain he appeared to be when he first signed that extension.



They also received a solid starting pitching prospect in the deal in right-hander Nate Eovaldi, even though they didn't have to cover any of Ramirez's salary. Eovaldi's main issue is his lack of an average third pitch, which has led to large platoon splits, with lefties hitting .349/.404/.519 against him in the majors this year; as a starter he's 93-97 and has an above-average slider in the mid- to upper 80s that is very effective against right-handers but not sharp enough to be his out pitch against left-handers. He should be part of the Marlins' 2013 rotation, especially since their farm system doesn't have a significant starting pitching prospect above A-ball, but he's still a work in progress.



Right-hander Scott McGough has a quick arm and an above-average fastball but has struggled throwing strikes this year in the Cal League, and profiles as a middle reliever.



Pirates add Rodriguez
The Pittsburgh Pirates' acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez is just the type of move their fans should fear -- the team is buying into their won-loss record too much and trading some of the products of the long rebuilding effort before they really arrive. It's not a disaster, as the team didn't trade Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon or Alen Hanson, but it was too much to give up for a veteran player who doesn't make the team substantially better.



Rodriguez has a fringy fastball that occasionally cracks 90 but mostly sits in the upper 80s, while his best pitch is a true curveball in the upper 70s with big, two-plane break. He commands the pitch well, throwing it for strikes and getting it below the zone for swings and misses, even against right-handed hitters, making up for a changeup that's barely an average pitch. He's using a two-seamer more this year, generating slightly more groundballs but also missing fewer bats, and is at an age (33) where his velocity could start to decline rather quickly, making the potential that he picks up his player option for 2014 a little scary for the Pirates. He might make the team a win better for the rest of this year, but at the cost of one of their top five prospects and a pretty significant expense for a team on a low payroll that is probably not going to end up in the postseason.



In exchange, the Houston Astros get one significant prospect in outfielder Robbie Grossman, who has recovered from a broken hamate bone and a rough April to resume his high-OBP ways, hitting .329/.443/.490 since June 1. His tools aren't great, but he's a polished hitter with a good approach, great hand-eye coordination, and a swing with a direct path to the ball for contact, although his power ceiling is probably limited to 15-18 homers a year right now. He's an average runner who should be above-average defensively in a corner but won't be a centerfielder in the majors.



Left-hander Rudy Owens has good control and feel for pitching but fringy stuff and profiles as a fifth starter, while left-hander Colton Cain also has good feel for pitching but below-average stuff and is probably just organizational depth. Clearing that much payroll while getting one significant prospect in return is an outstanding move, especially since six months ago it appeared that accomplishing both things in a Rodriguez deal would be impossible.

Rumors.

Reds ask about Span
10:33
AM ETDenard Span | Twins Recommend2Comments2EmailThe Cincinnati Reds have kicked the tires on a deal for outfielder Denard Span but have not had any formal talks with the Minnesota Twins, reports Ken Rosenthal.

Rosenthal cautions that a deal is unlikely since the Twins will ask for far more than minor league left-hander Tony Cingrani. The Phillies' Juan Pierre, who has been linked to the Reds in recent weeks, might be a more plausible alternative.

Meanwhile, Jon Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote Wednesday the Reds could very well stand pat at the deadline since they don't have a glaring need.

Span has been linked to the Nationals for months, but Washington might be more interested in adding a pitcher given the upcoming shutdown of Stephen Strasburg.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Denard Span
Deal for Josh Johnson unlikely
10:07
AM ETMiami Marlins Recommend1Comments4EmailThe Miami Marlins are in full sell-off mode following the blockbuster deal that sends Hanley Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Fish have dumped four veterans in two days with Ramirez and Randy Choate heading to Hollywood and Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante already in Detroit.

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports other deals are possible, but says it would take an "overwhelming offer" for the Fish to part with ace Josh Johnson. The Texas Rangers are among the teams linked to Johson in recent days.

Any team looking for a hitter could land Carlos Lee at a deep discount. The Pirates were previously mentioned as a suitor for Lee and could inquire again.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney has more on what has become a lost summer on South Beach:



Buster Olney
Deal for Johnson unlikely

"The Marlins have made good baseball trades this week, and at the same time, they are fighting the perception that they are conducting a lawn sale, with price tags on everything. So even if they get really good offers for Josh Johnson, that doesn't necessarily mean they?ll trade the right-hander. The Marlins had told other teams that if they traded Hanley Ramirez, they wouldn't trade Josh Johnson; it was going to be one or the other."
Tags:Miami Marlins, Carlos Lee, Josh Johnson
Contingency plans in Atlanta
9:49
AM ETAtlanta Braves Recommend2Comments0EmailBraves general manager Frank Wren said in a radio interview that a deal for Ryan Dempster was highly unlikely, and the Braves are considering other options.

David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says Boston's Jon Lester and possibly Tampa Bay's James Shields could be options for the Braves, adding that the club, despite some reports, has not pursued the Cubs' Matt Garza and Minnesota's Francisco Liriano.

Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel reports the Braves have scouted Zack Greinke heavily and would like to sign him as a free agent this winter no matter where he is traded. Of the Braves young pitching talent, the Brewers are believed to be most interested in Julio Teheran.

- Doug Mittler



Buster Olney
Atlanta needs to make a deal

"With Andrelton Simmons expected back in the next month and with Craig Kimbrel totally dominating hitters, Atlanta has a chance to be a really good team by season's end. But there has been cracks in Tommy Hanson's performance of late, and nobody knows if Ben Sheets can continue to throw so well, and help is needed in the rotation. This is why Atlanta tried to make a deal for Ryan Dempster, and why they'll continue to talk about other available starters - veteran pitchers who could provide stability."
Tags:Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves
Greinke as good as gone?
9:31
AM ETZack Greinke | Brewers Recommend7Comments19EmailAny concerns that Zack Greinke may be damaged goods were erased Tuesday night when the former Cy Young winner, making his first start in 10 days, allowed one run and three hits over seven innings in Philadelphia.

The decision to temporarily shut down Greinke raised some eyebrows, but he pitched so well Tuesday that it may very well be his last game in a Brewers uniform. With Cole Hamels deciding to remain in Philadelphia, the Brewers have the ultimate bargaining chip less than a week before the deadline.

A major source tells Tom Haudricourt in Thursday's Journal Sentinel that Greinke is "as good as gone."

Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com says the Rangers, Angels, Braves and White Sox have been the teams showing the most interest in Greinke. With a trade for Ryan Dempster off the board, the Braves could now focus their attention on Greinke, tweets Jon Heyman.

Daryl Van Schouwen of the Sun-Times says the White Sox are as active as any team in the Greinke chase.

The White Sox may be the club that wants Greinke the most, but they lack young talent to trade in return. General manager Ken Williams may have to get creative to get something done, but he's done that kind of thing before, so stay tuned on that front.

ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden writes that the Texas Rangers appear to be the favorites to land Greinke, based on the bullets they have to spend in trade and their need for such a player.

- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill



Jim Bowden
Greinke a nice fit in Texas

"The most likely landing place for Greinke remains the Texas Rangers, whose loaded farm system has more good trade chips than any other contending team in baseball. Although shortstop Jurickson Profar is off limits and third baseman Mike Olt isn't a great fit because the Brewers have Aramis Ramirez under contract for another couple of years, left-hander Martin Perez or righty Neftali Feliz could be involved in a swap for Greinke. There are some baseball executives involved in the process who told me that in an ideal world, the Brewers would trade Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers for top pitching prospect Zach Lee, and then turn around and send Greinke to the Rangers for Olt. However, the Dodgers part of the transaction does not look like it's going to work, as the Dodgers seem more likely to use Lee to get Matt Garza or Josh Johnson, both of whom they can control beyond this year."
Tags:Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
Scutaro likely to be dealt
9:19
AM ETMarco Scutaro | Rockies Recommend1Comments0EmailThe Colorado Rockies, one of the few teams we can undoubtedly classify as trade deadline sellers, have yet to make a move. That could change over the next few days, and the most likely player to be dealt is shortstop Marco Scutaro, says Troy Renck of the Denver Post.

Scutaro has $2.3 million remaining on the final year of his contract and has additional value since he can play both shortstop and second base.

Renck says the teams scouting Scutaro Wednesday include the Nationals, who will be without shortstop Ian Desmond for a month. The Oakland Athletics also are looking for a shortstop and could have heightened interest in Scutaro if their pursuit of Yunel Escobar stalls.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Marco Scutaro, Colorado Rockies
A's eyeing Escobar
9:04
AM ETYunel Escobar | Blue Jays Recommend2Comments0EmailThe Oakland Athletics had strong interest in Hanley Ramirez before the Miami Marlins decided late Tuesday night to ship the infielder to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a blockbuster deal. The A's have moved on, and appear to have set their sights on Yunel Escobar.

Susan Slusser reports Escobar remains an option for the A's, adding the Jays are believed to have strong interest in pitcher Brett Anderson.

The Jays could be willing to deal Escobar given they have highly-touted Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria waiting in the wings. Escobar is under contract through 2013 with club options for both 2014 and 2015 at affordable rates.


- Doug Mittler
Tags:Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics, Yunel Escobar
Wigginton a fit in the Bronx?
8:47
AM ETTy Wigginton | Phillies Recommend1Comments2EmailThe New York Yankees claim they have the in-house resources to survive without Alex Rodriguez, who will be out six to eight weeks, with a broken bone in his hand.

Jayson Nix and Eric Chavez are the primarys option at third base, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post cautions that the Yankees could be playing with fire given Chavez' history of injuries. Nix may have had a three-run double Wednesday in Seattle, but it Is hard to believe the Yankees view him as an everyday player.

Sherman suggests the Yankees would look for a player such Philadelphia's Ty Wigginton, who can play several positions. That could depend on whether the Phils, who have won four straight games, see themselves as contenders.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Ty Wigginton
Werth could return Tuesday
8:17
AM ETJayson Werth | Nationals Recommend1Comments0EmailThe first-place Washington Nationals could have right fielder Jayson Werth back in the lineup as soon as next Tuesday against the Phillies, manager Davey Johnson tells the Washington Post.

Werth, who broke his left wrist in a game against the Phillies in early May, is on a rehab assignment at Triple-A Syracuse. Once Werth returns, Bryce Harper will slide back over to center field, which means less at-bats for Roger Bernadina, who has started the last three games.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals
Can the White Sox land Greinke?
7:57
AM ETChicago White Sox Recommend1Comments1EmailKen Williams already has pulled off deals for Kevin Youkilis and Brett Myers, but they could end up being warm-up acts if the aggressive White Sox general manager has his way.

Daryl Van Schouwen of the Sun-Times reports Thursday the White Sox are as active as any team in pursuit of Brewers ace Zack Greinke

The Sun-Times report cautions that any deal for Greinke probably take more than what the Chicago farm system has to offer. The Sox would likely have to part with a player off the 25-man roster, such as right-hander Gavin Floyd.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox
Pirates could deal a starter
7:36
AM ETPittsburgh Pirates Recommend1Comments3EmailThe Pittsburgh Pirates may not be done dealing after acquiring left-hander Wandy Rodriguez from the Houston Astros on Tuesday night.

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports the Pirates are sending signals they could now trade away a starter, with Jeff Karstens and Kevin Correia the most likely candidates to move.

The Pirates are in the market to add a bat and have been linked in the past to Carlos Quentin, who is off the board after signing an extension with the Padres. Chase Headley has been linked to the Pirates, but our Buster Olney reported earlier this week the Padres have asked for a "significant package of prospects."

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Kevin Correia, Jeff Karstens, Pittsburgh Pirates
Padres talk extension with Street
6:51
AM ETHuston Street | Padres Recommend2Comments0EmailThe San Diego Padres effectively took Carlos Quentin off the trade market Sunday by announcing a three-year, $27 million deal with the veteran outfielder. Could GM Josh Byrnes look to do the same with closer Huston Street?

Jon Heyman tweeted Wednesday night the Padres are expected to offer Street a one-year deal plus an option, adding that the reliever may want to stay in San Diego.

The Padres always could make Street available if contract talks falter.

Street, who is 17-for-17 in save opportunities, is making $7.5 million this season and has a $9 million option for 2013. The St. Louis Cardinals are among the teams linked to Street in recent weeks.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Huston Street
Lee on the block?
6:39
AM ETCliff Lee | Phillies Recommend0Comments6EmailThe Philadelphia Phillies, having now committed $144 million to Cole Hamels, may clear some payroll space by trading Cliff Lee. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com reported Wednesday that while the club isn't shopping Lee just yet, there are rival executives that believe it could happen over the coming days.

The Phillies' motivation for trading Lee would be two-fold. For one, they could fill some holes with the trade return, perhaps including third base and the outfield. Second, the club is slated to pay the first-level luxury tax this year and could hit the second-level next year without cutting payroll somewhere.

Clubs that could look into Lee's availability include the usual suspects in the Bronx, Beantown, both L.A. clubs and the Texas Rangers.

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweets, however, that there are no present indications that Lee is or will be available, and that part of Cole Hamels' lure to re-sign was pitching with Lee and Halladay. We have to believe there were $144 million other reasons Hamels chose to stay in Philly, however.

Lee can block trades to 21 teams, though the Rangers and Yankees are among the eight not on that list.

- Jason A. Churchill
 
At What Point Should We Worry About Velocity Loss?

I’ve written quite a bit this year on trends in pitcher aging, specifically velocity loss and gain. In the last iteration I focused on the odds of pitchers gaining velocity back after a season where their fastball dropped by at least 1 mph.

In that piece I listed a few pitchers to keep your eye on given that their velocity was down from 2011. In June, I wrote about CC Sabathia for ESPN and noted that the big lefty is likely beginning to “age”, as the odds are quite a bit higher that pitchers over the age of 30 do not gain velocity back once they’ve lost it.

After thinking about it a while it occurred to me that there is of course the chance that these pitchers will gain their velocity back by the end of the year (as I noted in both pieces). We know that, generally speaking, pitchers gain velocity as the season goes on. Temperatures rise, and so too do fastball velocities. If this is the case I wondered at what point in the season we can say with greater certainty that a pitcher is throwing as hard as he is going to throw. Is there a particular month where a velocity decline is more likely to translate to or predict a full season velocity decline?

To get an initial sense of the numbers I looked at fastball velocities for individual pitchers in each month since 2002. I used BIS data as I wanted as large a sample as possible, and BIS fastball velocity data has a correlation of roughly .97 with PITCHf/x velocity data.

I was mainly interested in two numbers: the correlation of fastball velocity in a given month to the rest of season velocity (i.e. how well does April’s velocity predict May through September), and the odds of finishing the season down at least 1 mph when a pitcher’s velocity was down at least 1 mph in a given month from the same time the previous year (i.e. if April 2012’s velocity is at least 1 mph less than April 2011, what are the increased odds of finishing 2012 down at least 1 mph).

I restricted the sample a few different ways. The main thing I wanted to control for was pitchers getting called up late in the season and having fresher arms, or getting injured in May only to return for July and August and biasing the data. Therefore, I set a minimum innings pitched threshold that had to be met in each month of a given season. I also excluded any pitchers that switched roles (i.e. moved from starter to reliever, or vice versa) to avoid any artificial increases or decreases in velocity, year over year.

The first cut I looked at was for starting pitchers that threw at least 25 innings in each month in a given season. Here are the results:



Monthly velocity is generally just as predictive for starters from May through August. There is a little bit of a difference in April, although it’s not drastic (roughly 2%). But the fact that April velocity is less predictive of rest of season suggests that we should take April velocity declines (and, I guess, gains as well) with a grain of salt. This also matches up pretty well with what we find when looking at how the loss of velocity in a month affects the chances of being down at season’s end.

I calculated odds ratios for starters in the sample to see whether losing velocity in certain months was a better predictor of an overall velocity drop than other months. Overall, a velocity loss in any month relative to how a pitcher was throwing the year before increased the chances of a velocity loss for the season, but there are differences by month:

% with 1 mph drop in month and full season % without 1 mph drop in month but dropped full season
April 38% 9%
May 47% 6%
June 55% 5%
July 56% 4%
August 53% 6%

What we find is that losing velocity in June or July increases a starter’s odds of finishing the year with an overall velocity loss the most (11.9 and 13.7 respectively for June and July). Losing velocity in April isn’t insignificant, but relative to other months it is less worrisome.

To bottom-line the findings: by June, we should have a pretty good idea of how hard a pitcher is going to throw for the rest of the season. If a pitcher is down at least 1 mph in June relatively to the previous June we shouldn’t expect them to magically recover their velocity in the second half of the season. Part of this, of course, is timing–you don’t have as many pitches left in the season to recover.

In terms of next steps, there are a bunch of ways to improve this study:

1) It would be interesting to look at not just velocity in a given month and it’s correlation to rest of season velocity, but season-to-date velocity through a given month.

2) Monthly data was used because it was the easiest to get my hands on. However, months are somewhat arbitrary endpoints. It might be more telling to look at how velocity trends predict seasonal outcomes based on the number of pitches instead of just months.

3) The odds ratios are good starts, but I didn’t do anything to control for pitchers that were already down in terms of their velocity prior to a given month. So, for example, if a pitcher was down 1 mph in July they may very well have been down 1 in June and even May. So July’s odds may be partially inflated because a pitcher has been losing velocity all year, making it very difficult to make up velocity in the remaining two months of the season after digging themselves such a big hole.

4) Relievers: I did run the numbers for relievers but I am not sure how much I trust them. I used a minimum number of 10 innings pitched in each month as the threshold, which reduced the sample. The correlation between monthly velocity and rest of season velocity looked similar to starters, but the odds ratios in terms of velocity loss looked completely different. There could be a logical reason behind this, but I haven’t thought of one yet outside of the way I selected the sample could have skewed things.

Like many things, this is a first step. Hopefully I’ll get a chance to revisit this or some enterprising readers will jump right in.

In the meantime, here is a “watch-list” of 2012 starters that were down at least 1mph in June and July this year relative to those months in 2011:

Name Team FBv Difference in June (mph) FBv Difference in July (mph)
Derek Holland Rangers -2.7 -1.7
Tim Hudson Braves -2.5 -2.8
Doug Fister Tigers -1.9 -1.2
CC Sabathia Yankees -1.8 -2.2
Erik Bedard Pirates -1.8 -1.2
Tim Lincecum Giants -1.6 -1.2
Felix Hernandez Mariners -1.4 -0.7
Vance Worley Phillies -1.4 -0.6
Tommy Hanson Braves -1.2 -1.0
Jered Weaver Angels -1.2 -0.9
Bartolo Colon Athletics -1.2 -1.1
Justin Verlander Tigers -1.1 -1.5
Justin Masterson Indians -1.1 -1.3
Johnny Cueto Reds -1.1 -0.5
Yovani Gallardo Brewers -1.0 -1.6
Ryan Vogelsong Giants -1.0 -0.6
Jason Marquis Padres -0.8 -1.0
Mark Buehrle Marlins -0.7 -1.3
Ubaldo Jimenez Indians -0.5 -1.2
James McDonald Pirates -0.5 -1.2
Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks -0.4 -1.7
Ivan Nova Yankees -0.2 -1.3
Carlos Zambrano Marlins 0.0 -1.5
Mat Latos Reds 0.1 -1.5

Hanley Gives Dodgers Life on Left Side.

Dodgers shortstops in 2012: .229/.283/.317, .272 wOBA, 70 wRC+. 20th in baseball. Dodgers third basemen in 2012: .248/.321/.355, .296 wOBA, 85 wRC+. 21st in baseball.

The reasons the Dodgers desired Hanley Ramirez are readily apparent. Even if Ramirez is no longer the shortstop force that defined his early career as a Florida Marlin, even if Ramirez is just the player he’s been the last two seasons, the Dodgers have improved greatly on the left side of the infield.


A look at Ramirez’s peripheral stats would suggest that not much has changed since 2010, a year in which Ramirez hit .300/.378/.475, good for a 129 wRC+. Ramirez is walking a little less and striking out a little more in 2012, and he’s hitting for just as much power. But just like 2011 — the year he posted a 96 wRC+, the only sub-average mark of his career — the singles aren’t falling in. Ramirez had a .327 BABIP in 2010, then a career low. In 2011 that dropped to .275, and this season it’s down to .271.

His BABIP is down at least 80 points from his career marks on both liners and grounders. It’s down at least 40 points to each the pull, center and opposite fields. And it’s down against both lefties and righties.

So then, the question: is it luck, or is Ramirez just not hitting the ball as hard? There are signs of a real change in Ramirez’s skill level. ESPN Stats and Info presented an excellent graphic showing Ramirez struggling to hit inside pitches — after hitting well over .300 on inside fastballs in 2009 and 2010, he’s down below .200 over the past two seasons. In addition, after hitting 21.5 runs better than average against sliders and curves prior to 2010, he’s been 3.4 runs below average against those pitches the past two seasons.

But we’re still talking about just 553 balls in play over the past two seasons. Any hit robbed by weather or park or a great fielding play is still knocking just under two full points off his BABIP. It would take just 15 more hits out of those 553 balls in play to get to a .300 BABIP. Then we’re talking about a wOBA in the .340-.355 range instead of his actual mediocre .315-.330 marks.

Luckily for the Dodgers, though, anything above what Hanley has done already this season — a .329 wOBA, 104 wRC+ — is gravy. Hanley’s 4.2 wRAA so far beats Los Angeles’s third base production to date by 17 runs and beats their shortstop production by 20 runs. Juan Uribe, Dee Gordon, Justin Sellers, Adam Kennedy — Ramirez is a vast improvement over this motley crew of left-side laggards.

The Dodgers are somehow just a half-game out of playoff contention despite dealing with myriad injury issues along with their incompetence on the left side of the infield. For the price — a starter with potential but one that will take some work for the Marlins — Los Angeles was unlikely to find a better option. Aramis Ramirez would have cost a similar amount of future value as well as cash, and the Padres are asking for a huge return in exchange for Chase Headley.

This Hanley Ramirez is no longer a superstar, but he fills the holes of the Los Angeles Dodgers nearly perfectly. If the Dodgers are going to make a run at the playoffs, they need contributions from the left side of their infield, and Ramirez makes that a possibility again.


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Don’t Crucify the Marlins for Making Smart Moves.

On Monday, the Marlins traded Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to the Detroit Tigers for highly thought of pitching prospect Jacob Turner and a couple of other prospects, admitting that their grand experiment hadn’t produced a contender in 2012 as they had hoped. That deal didn’t generate much controversy, as Sanchez is a free agent at the end of the year and Infante is a role player without much name value.

Late last night, however, they agreed to ship Hanley Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Nathan Eovaldi, and the internet exploded.

Sports Illustrated:

For all of their rebranding and relocating, the Miami Marlins have done the one thing their fan base is least likely to tolerate, which is to bring back memories of the fire sales that followed their World Series wins in 1997 and 2003. The Sanchez/Infante trade could have been seen as part of a short-term regrouping on Tuesday. On Wednesday, in light of the Ramirez trade, that is no longer possible.

The Sporting News:

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria got his sweetheart ballpark deal and asked fans to fill it; in a span of about 36 hours, he disrespectfully chased them away because he didn’t get immediate satisfaction on the field. And according to at least two sources, other teams’ front offices are looking down on this latest Marlins fire sale.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

The ever-fraudulent Florida Marlins are holding another fire sale. Their bold quest for another World Series championship barely made it past the All-Star Game.

Fraudulent. Disrespectful. Not possible that this is a baseball decision. It’s fire sale pandemonium, and the outrage meter is turned up extra high. And yet, it may all be completely wrong.

What the Marlins have done in the past three days is trade two months of a pitcher they probably weren’t going to re-sign, a year and a half of an average second baseman, and an overpaid underachiever who most teams wouldn’t have even claimed on waivers. As Knobler notes, the Marlins were willing to pick up half of Ramirez’s salary to trade him to Oakland, and Billy Beane was hesitant to even pull the trigger at that price. This wasn’t so much a fire sale as it was an inventory closeout of unwanted goods.

Yes, the Marlins have a bad history of tearing down their rosters. After they won the World Series in 1997, they traded away Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Robb Nen, Moises Alou, Devon White, and Jeff Conine before the season began, and then shipped off Gary Sheffield, Charles Johnson, and Bobby Bonilla six weeks into the season. That was a fire sale that turned a team that went 92-70 into a team that went 54-108. The team traded away nine of their highest profile players and slashed their payroll down from $50 million down to $15 million, coming in ahead of only the Pirates and Expos in total spending that year.

Over the next five years, the Marlins would build back up their farm system and, in 2003, found themselves as something of a surprise contender. On the backs of 21-year-old Dontrelle Willis, 23-year-old Josh Beckett, and 20-year-old Miguel Cabrera, an extremely young team snagged the wild card and ended up winning the World Series. Once again, the Marlins celebrated their championship by going cheap, though didn’t do anything near as extreme as the 1997 offseason. Ivan Rodriguez left as a free agent, Derrek Lee was traded to the Cubs, Juan Encarnacion was traded to the Dodgers, and Mark Redman was traded to the A’s.

But, those weren’t catastrophic moves that doomed the franchise. Redman was replaced by a returning A.J. Burnett, who actually upgraded the rotation. Choi actually posted an .882 OPS in 2004, essentially matching the .888 OPS that Lee put up the year before. Encarnacion’s job was given to Cabrera, which was an obvious improvement. They couldn’t replace Pudge behind the plate, but he got a 4 year, $40 million deal from the Tigers to cover his age 32-35 season and then took a huge step back offensively after the first year of the deal. Not signing a catcher headed into his decline phase certainly isn’t the same thing as a fire sale.

The 2004 Marlins didn’t get torn apart, nor did they collapse into the worst team in baseball. Their opening day payroll shrunk from $49 million to $42 million and they went from 91 wins to 83 wins. Despite what you may read this morning, the Marlins don’t have a history of selling off all their good players as soon as they get what they want. They did that once — 15 years ago — and that was under previous owner Wayne Huizenga.

I get that Jeffrey Loria is easy to hate. How he handled the Expos was awful, he’s done a lot of slimey things as the owner of the Marlins, and yes, he just spent a long time convincing the city of Miami to build him a publicly financed stadium that has greatly increased attendance, and in turn, his revenues. I have no interest in defending Jeffrey Loria from any of the valid criticisms that are leveled at him. However, the reality is that he wasn’t in charge of the team in 1997, and the off-season of 2003-2004 wasn’t a “fire sale”.

And neither is what they’re doing now. Hanley Ramirez hasn’t hit in two years, his transition to third base hasn’t gone very well, and he’s due $31.5 million over the next two seasons. Trading him now is no different than what the Arizona Diamondbacks did by making Justin Upton available in trade, and no one was calling that a fire sale just three months into the defense of their 2011 NL West title. In reality, underperforming teams that aren’t in the playoff race trade expensive underachievers and pending free agents every year. It’s not fraud, it’s baseball.

If the team trades Josh Johnson in the next week, I’m sure that will just be seen as more evidence that the Marlins are up to their old tricks. But, with Cole Hamels off the market, there’s a strong demand for premium pitching, and the Marlins will likely get a very strong return for the last year and a half of team control they have over Johnson. And, given Johnson’s history of health problems, his declining velocity and strikeout rates, and the team’s recent acquisitions of two good young starting pitching prospects, now is probably the perfect time to move Johnson for value.

Whether it can be interpreted other ways or not, these trades make baseball sense. You can view them through the lens of “Evil Jeffrey Loria Screwing Over His Fans Again” if you want, but I don’t think the facts really support that kind of conclusion.

If the Marlins don’t spend any of the money they just saved by getting rid of Hanley Ramirez, if they don’t extend Giancarlo Stanton, and they turn back into a low-payroll team that lives off revenue sharing, they should absolutely be crucified for that. But they haven’t done that yet, and it’s not fair to assume that is the plan simply because that was Huizenga’s plan 15 years ago.

If the Marlins do reinvest Hanley’s money into upgrading other parts of the roster, and they do get a good return for Josh Johnson before he breaks down again, there’s a pretty good chance that the 2013 Marlins will be better than the 2012 version. I understand why you might not think Loria deserves the benefit of the doubt, but a rush to judgement isn’t any better.


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ooIRON MANoo said:
WearinTheFourFive said:
It would've been a good move, if the Marlins were picking up half the remaining contract (like they were going to if they traded him to the A's). So yeah, the Dodgers made a dumb move.
Click to expand...

Please explain how it's a "dumb move" Mr. Salt?
Click to expand...

It's arithmetic, m'lady:

Hanley has been worth 3 WAR total over the last 2 years.

On the open market, 1 WAR is worth approximately $5 million.

Hanley is due $31.5 million over the next two years.

In order to make good on their investment, the Dodgers need Hanley to perform twice as well over the next two seasons compared to the last 2 seasons.

The A's, who also tried to trade for Hanley, were going to make the Marlins take on half of the remaining contract, so Hanley would be due about $15 million over the next two seasons total. For the A's to then justify their investment, Hanley would only have to maintain his current playing level.

In my humble opinion, this looks like an apparent move by the new ownership to make a move at the trade deadline in order to show the fanbase that they are moving in a new direction. Sadly, the team has been over paying players for quite some time now (see Jason Shmidt and Andrew Jones signings).
 
Biggest trade deadline holes to fill.

With the trade deadline now just five days away, some executives spent part of Wednesday digesting the deals that took place late Tuesday night and continuing their assessment of their own teams and the market.

The number of shopping days is dwindling, and here are the biggest holes to be filled:



1. Los Angeles Angels: Starting pitcher
There is so much for the Angels to love about their team. Some rival GMs already believe Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and he's at the top of what is a really good lineup. Angels ace Jered Weaver has been throwing well, and Dan Haren looked OK in his return to the rotation last Sunday night. Ernesto Frieri might turn out to be the best pickup made by any team all season; since GM Jerry DiPoto made his deal for the right-hander, Frieri has 69 strikeouts in 41 innings with a 1.54 ERA.



But the Angels don't have a lot of margin for error in the AL West, given the presence of the Texas Rangers and the blistering hot Oakland Athletics, and they do have real weakness at the back end of their rotation. Ervin Santana has an ERA of 6.00 and has been placed in a 15-out plan by manager Mike Scioscia in an effort to get him right, and Jerome Williams tends to be very Jekyll-or-Hyde.




They need an upgrade, they are looking for an upgrade, and so as the conversations continue about some of the available starters, the Angels will be right in the middle of it all.

The Angels are among the teams calling the Milwaukee Brewers about Zack Greinke, now that the Milwaukee right-hander is available.



If the Angels make a trade, one executive expects infielder Jean Segura to be in the middle of whatever they do, as the organization's most marketable young player.



2. Oakland: Left side of the infield
Look, if you're not buying that the Athletics are for real, then you're not paying attention to the numbers. They've got the best ERA in the majors, will soon be helped by pitching prospect Daniel Straily who's having one of the best seasons of any prospect -- if you haven't seen his numbers, here they are -- and they've got two really productive hitters in their middle of their lineup in Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick.



And they never seem to lose anymore. They've got seven straight victories, 12 wins in their last 13 games since the All-Star break and have won 27 of their last 36 games. They have put themselves in a position to get help, and they need help at shortstop or third base, and they were engaged with the Miami Marlins about Hanley Ramirez before he was dealt to the Dodgers.



The market for shortstops and third basemen is woefully thin. The Toronto Blue Jays are ready to trade Yunel Escobar, and the Colorado Rockies will entertain offers for Marco Scutaro. Oakland is one of the teams engaged with the San Diego Padres on Chase Headley. One thing to keep in mind: The Athletics do have a surplus of pitching from which to deal.

Escobar is next on the docket, writes Susan Slusser.

Oakland is on the hunt, writes Tim Kawakami.

The Athletics are on a big-time roll; they blew out Toronto Wednesday, and along the way Reddick made a crazy catch.



3. Texas: Starting pitcher
They're not looking for just any starter. They're looking for someone better than what they have, and their rotation has been thinned by injury. The underrated Colby Lewis is out for the year, and while Roy Oswalt is confident he can bounce back from his back trouble, there is no guarantee that's going to happen.



If an elite starting pitcher is traded -- a Greinke, a Josh Johnson -- the Rangers figure to be right in the mix.



Neftali Feliz's exact role after he returns to the Rangers hasn't been decided, writes Jeff Wilson.



4. Atlanta Braves: Starting pitcher
There is a lot to really like about the Braves and how they're coming together this season, with the maturation of Jason Heyward. With Andrelton Simmons expected back in the next month and Craig Kimbrel totally dominating hitters, Atlanta has a chance to be a really good team by season's end.



But there has been cracks in Tommy Hanson's performance of late, and nobody knows if Ben Sheets can continue to throw so well, and help is needed in the rotation. This is why Atlanta tried to make a deal for Ryan Dempster and why they'll continue to talk about other available starters -- veteran pitchers who could provide stability.

Atlanta GM Frank Wren now says a Dempster deal is highly unlikely.



5. Chicago White Sox: Starting pitcher
Detroit made its big play, adding Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez, and now the White Sox would like to answer. They need a starting pitcher, but they are limited with the lack of depth in their farm system, rival evaluators believe. In a bidding war for a preeminent starter like Greinke, they may have trouble topping other offers.

The White Sox would love Greinke, writes Daryl van Schouwen.



6. San Francisco Giants: Bullpen help
The Giants have been fine since the loss of Brian Wilson, but they could use another arm -- maybe someone like Chris Perez, who the Indians could make available if Cleveland decides to become sellers after today's game with the Tigers. (And even if the Indians don't become full-blown sellers, they might get the best possible value for Perez by dealing him now and promoting Vinny Pestano into the closer's role.)



7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Lineup help
They talked (briefly) about Justin Upton and are among the clubs in the Headley mix. But it's possible that in the end, they will view the costs as prohibitive, because in so many cases teams are asking for their best pitching prospects.



8. Cincinnati Reds: Left-handed hitting
They have talked about players like Juan Pierre and Shane Victorino. With Joey Votto out, they recently started a lineup comprised entirely of right-handed hitters. Cincinnati needs to prepare for possible postseason matchups, as well, when Dusty Baker will need to have some left-handed options for his bench.



9. Cleveland: Starting pitcher, outfield help
The Indians could be sellers and buyers. If they add lineup help, the Indians will undoubtedly focus on right-handed hitting.



10. Baltimore Orioles: Starting pitcher
Baltimore's need for pitching is obvious, but the question is, how much should the Orioles be willing to surrender to make it happen? Other teams are asking about their top prospects, like Manny Machado, but the Orioles have rejected those proposals -- rightly. It'd be better for the Orioles to consider options from the B-list, like Shaun Marcum.



More trade talk


• The Headley trade talks continue, fueled, perhaps, by his show of power Wednesday.

• Ryan Dempster was angry after being pulled from Wednesday's game. You wonder if there might be more tension for him in the hours ahead, because it's apparent that there is some frustration in the Cubs' effort to deal the veteran right-hander.

Dempster can reject any proposed deal, because of his 10-and-5 rights, and so the Chicago Cubs had been in consultation with him about what might be acceptable -- and they had operated under the impression that Dempster would approve a trade to the Braves. Club president Theo Epstein arranged a swap of Dempster for Randall Delgado.

But Dempster balked at the deal, and the Cubs haven't gotten suitable offers from the Dodgers, the team for which Dempster wants to pitch. The Cubs' hope remains that Dempster agrees to the Atlanta trade -- and quickly, because Braves GM Frank Wren is already beginning to move on to other discussions -- but they may ultimately decide to keep the right-hander through the trade deadline.

If that happens, the Cubs could keep Dempster and make him a qualifying offer of $12.5 million in the offseason and get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Sure, the Cubs could be at risk of having Dempster accept their one-year tender, but they could also make it clear that Dempster would not have a spot in the rotation.

Epstein isn't talking about Dempster's status, writes Mark Gonzales.

• The Marlins have made good baseball trades this week, and at the same time, they are fighting the perception that they are conducting a lawn sale, with price tags on everything. So even if they get really good offers for Johnson, that doesn't necessarily mean they'll trade the right-hander. The Marlins had told other teams that if they traded Ramirez, they wouldn't trade Johnson; it was going to be one or the other.

More trades are possible, writes Clark Spencer. The Marlins must be preparing for bigger things, writes Mike Berardino. The Marlins are not committed to trading Johnson, writes Juan Rodriguez.

There was a lot of talk and anger in other front offices Wednesday -- concern that the Marlins are doing irreparable damage to the South Florida market by tearing up the team so quickly after rebranding it in the offseason.

It was time for the Marlins to trade Hanley, writes Greg Cote.



Elsewhere


• The Rays enjoyed a blowout of Baltimore Wednesday, and Tampa Bay is eight games out of first place in the AL East and 2 1/2 games behind in the wild-card race.



• It's hard to describe how bad the Houston Astros have been, but the numbers speak for themselves: They've got two wins in their last 24 games, with a minus-73 run differential. To put that into perspective, their average run differential per game is minus-3.04. The average run differential for the '62 Mets was minus-2.04.

There are questions about whether Francisco Cordero will continue as the Houston closer.

The Astros have reason to hope, writes Randy Harvey.

• The signing of Cole Hamels creates a foundation for the future, writes David Murphy. Hamels is happy to stay in Philadelphia, writes John Finger.

In recent weeks, the Phillies have called around to different teams to gauge interest in Hunter Pence, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. Meanwhile, the Phillies picked up another comeback victory.



Hamels' value
Most wins above replacement among NL left-handed starters through their age-28 season (since 1950).

Player WAR Seasons
Steve Carlton 33.3 1965-73
Sandy Koufax 32.7 1955-64
Fernando Valenzuela 30.8 1980-89
Cole Hamels 25.7 2006-12*
* Still has rest of this season to add WAR.
With this deal, the Phillies have committed $68 million in 2013 for three starting pitchers -- Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

Largest pitcher contracts in MLB history
CC Sabathia, NYY: Seven years, $161M
Cole Hamels, PHI: Six years, $144M
Johan Santana, NYM: Six years, $137.5M
Barry Zito, SF: Seven years, $126M
CC Sabathia, NYY: Five years, $122M
Mike Hampton, COL: Eight years, $121M



• Hanley Ramirez got off to a good start with the Dodgers, who are taking a big gamble, as Dylan Hernandez writes. He got a warm welcome from his new teammates, writes Jim Peltz. Bill Plaschke likes the deal.

The Dodgers' trade caught the attention of the Arizona Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro writes.

By The Numbers
From ESPN Stats & Info



7: Straight wins (in seven straight starts) for Jered Weaver; three behind Chuck Finley for Angels single-season record.
9: Starts allowing five earned runs or more for Tim Lincecum this season, most in MLB.
14: Wins for David Price, the first pitcher in MLB to hit that mark this season.
16: Run differential in A's win against the Blue Jays, largest run differential in a shutout this season.

Moves, deals and decisions


1. The Rays moved to cut Hideki Matsui.



2. The New York Yankees turned to Eric Chavez. They'll monitor the trade market, and if they find a match, they'll make a move, but the Yankees are more likely to go with internal solutions. This is not a crisis situation for the Yankees, writes Bob Klapisch. Totally agree with him.



3. The St. Louis Cardinals added reliever Brian Fuentes.



4. The Indians made a roster move.



5. The Giants have some big roster decisions coming Friday.

Dings and dents


1. J.P. Arencibia will miss most of the next two months with a broken hand.



2. Jayson Werth could be back within a week.



3. Andrew Bailey is making progress in his rehab.



4. Trevor Bauer was shut down.

NL East notes


Stephen Strasburg was absolutely dominant for seven innings in Washington's victory. His innings count has reached 117 1/3.

From ESPN Stats & Info: Strasburg struck out 11 and walked none in a 5-2 win against the Mets, his third career 10-K, 0-BB game. Since 2010 (Stasburg's debut season) only Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez have more (four apiece).

Strasburg leads the majors in strikeouts despite ranking outside the top 50 in innings pitched. Among all qualified starters age 25 or younger in the last 100 years, Kerry Wood in 1998 is the only one to average more strikeouts per nine innings.

• The Braves hit a bunch of home runs.

• Some New York Mets argued with each other after Tim Byrdak allowed a home run.

NL Central notes


• You can't stop the Reds, you can only hope to contain them. Cincinnati is within one game of having the best record in the majors.

• Garrett Jones got a big hit, writes Bill Brink.

• The Cardinals got to celebrate.

• The Brewers' bullpen blew up again.

NL West notes


• Arizona's winning streak ended.

• Tim Lincecum had a really rough outing.

AL East notes


From ESPN Stats & Info, how Price dominated the Orioles:



A) Price used his curveball as a put-away pitch. Nine of the 14 curveballs he threw were with two strikes, and he recorded a career-best eight outs, including six strikeouts, on those nine curveballs.
B) Six of Price's nine two-strike curveballs were down and out of the strike zone, and Orioles hitters missed on all five of their swings against them.
C) While Price used his curveball down in the zone, he worked primarily up with his fastball. He threw 44 percent of his fastballs up in the zone, his highest percentage since his first start this season and his highest ever against the Orioles. Two of his three fastball strikeouts Wednesday were up in the zone.

• The Yankees salvaged the series finale in Seattle, writes David Waldstein.

• It's hard to make sense of how poorly Ricky Romero has been pitching.

• The Orioles had an ugly first inning and got blown out, writes Eduardo Encina.

• Josh Beckett started and lost again.

AL Central notes


• Derek Lowe struggled again.

• Max Scherzer and the Tigers won in Cleveland. The Detroit middle infield is honing its communication.

• The White Sox swept the Twins.

• The Royals buried themselves, writes Bob Dutton. Jeff Francoeur snapped out of a slump.

• The Twins had a terrible series, says Ron Gardenhire.

AL West notes


• The Angels blew out the Royals with some help from a refreshed Torii Hunter.

From ESPN Stats & Info: A game after his franchise-record streak of 15 straight games with a run ended, Mike Trout scored three more runs Wednesday. Trout is scoring 51 percent of the time when he reaches base safely this season, by far the highest rate in MLB (Freddie Freeman is second at 46 percent).

• Derek Holland had a strong outing.

Easy upgrades for contenders.

As the trading deadline approaches, teams are open to any and all moves that might make them better. Some clubs have sought upgrades at positions where they've already received decent production, but the higher the bar the trade target has to clear, the fewer the potential fixes (and the higher the price). The path of least resistance for a contender hoping to improve is often to patch a particularly weak position with an average player who can give them more than they've been getting without costing too much in any other area.



The weakest performance by a collection of players at any position on a contending team this season has been at second base in Detroit, where seven players -- notably Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn and Danny Worth -- have played at replacement level or below, combining for a total of -2.2 WARP. It's no coincidence that the Detroit Tigers traded for a second baseman on Tuesday, filling what had been a gaping hole with Omar Infante, who should be at least average for them the rest of the way. We can see the same pattern on display in other acquisitions: The Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez because their shortstops -- notably the injured Dee Gordon -- had combined for -0.6 WARP.



Although some positional holes have already been plugged, several more remain. The teams that manage to find fixes for their most obvious flaws might be the ones that emerge from the pack of contenders with a playoff berth. The following are the most glaring positional weaknesses that contenders are still trying to fill, as well as a potential fits for each team.




Los Angeles Dodgers, 1B (-1.5 WARP)
The Dodgers filled one hole in their infield when they added Ramirez, but an even worse one remains at first base where James Loney and Juan Rivera haven't hit all year. It sounds like an exaggeration to say that anyone would be better than Loney, but it isn't: Of the 29 first basemen who've had at least 200 plate appearances this season, only the recently demoted Justin Smoak has a lower true average (TAv) than Loney's .218.



According to Jayson Stark, Justin Morneau is the bat the Minnesota Twins are most likely to move, and he might make an excellent fit for the Dodgers. While he hasn't recovered the offensive form he showed before his concussion problems, he has stayed in the lineup. Even if he doesn't improve at the plate, he'd represent a sizable upgrade for LA.




San Francisco Giants, 2B (-1.3 WARP)


Others: Baltimore Orioles, 2B (-1.1 WARP), Chicago White Sox, 2B (-0.8 WARP), Oakland Athletics, 2B (-0.8 WARP)



The Tigers aren't the only contending team that has had problems at second base. The Giants (Ryan Theriot, Emmanuel Burriss), Orioles (the injured Robert Andino and Brian Roberts), White Sox (Gordon Beckham) and A's (Jemile Weeks) have all had their own issues at the keystone. Infante is off the market, but a few semi-attractive options remain, including the Rockies' Marco Scutaro, the Cubs' Darwin Barney and the Diamondbacks' Stephen Drew, who's struggled since his return but is unlikely to remain in Arizona beyond this season.



The Blue Jays' Kelly Johnson is another intriguing option who might be on the move. The A's will likely stick with Weeks and hope he recovers his rookie form. Across the bay, the Giants were too strapped for cash to bring in a bat during the winter, but with the Dodgers retooling, a little offensive help would go a long way for San Francisco. At this point, the O's would benefit from the addition of almost any warm body.



If they can't come up with a match at second, they could compensate by bringing in veteran starter Randy Wolf. The Brewers would give him away for salary relief, and Baltimore seems to be a likely destination, since Wolf would add some experience to the Orioles' young rotation and allow them to look like buyers without surrendering anything of value.




Oakland Athletics, 3B (-1.3 WARP)


The A's have been unable to find a fit at third since Scott Sizemore's season-ending injury -- their late-April pickup of Brandon Inge predictably bombed -- but the next few days might lead to a more lasting solution. Oakland was reportedly in on Ramirez, but with Hanley spoken for, the A's will have to look elsewhere.



Another name they've been linked to is Chase Headley, who would make a lot of sense for Billy Beane's team. Headley's offensive prowess has always been disguised by Petco Park; the 28-year-old has mustered an impressive .279/.378/.488 line away from San Diego this season, which would be a major improvement over the .185/.230/.332 showing by Inge, Josh Donaldson and the rest of Oakland's miserable hot-corner crew.




Tampa Bay Rays, C (-1.2 WARP)


The Rays have been sitting on the fence between buying and selling for some time, but recent indications are that, with Evan Longoria on the comeback trail, they may decide to stay in the race. If they do, catcher is one area where the Rays could improve without breaking the bank. Even in a typically terrible offensive season, Jose Molina has done enough with his glove to hold on to a job, but his backups' bats have been no better.



The Rays could take the struggling Kurt Suzuki off Oakland's hands and hope he rebounds, allowing Derek Norris to take over in Oakland. If the Rays want to get really adventurous, they could deal from their strength -- young, homegrown starting pitching -- and possibly send Jeremy Hellickson to the Cleveland Indians for Carlos Santana in an exchange of promising players who haven't yet turned into stars.




Pittsburgh Pirates, SS (-1.1 WARP)


Clint Barmes has been the Loney of shortstops in 2012: No one currently playing the position has hit worse. He has helped on defense, but on the whole, his contributions have hurt the team. Backup Josh Harrison has hit well enough to be an upgrade, and the Pirates might not have much left to spend after taking over the remainder of Wandy Rodriguez's contract.



But if the Pirates want to go outside the organization in search of a solution, Brendan Ryan might make sense. Ryan's bat hasn't been much better than Barmes', but his glove is good enough to make him an asset anyway. Pirates fans have already lived through the end of Jack Wilson's tenure with the team, so they're used to the sight of a defensive whiz with a weak bat at short.




Washington Nationals, LF (-1.0 WARP)


Others: Tigers, RF (-1.0 WARP), Cincinnati Reds, CF (-0.7 WARP), Pirates, RF (-0.5 WARP)



Roger Bernadina has been a pleasant surprise in center, and Mike Morse has been better of late at the plate, so the Nats probably won't make a move for a starting position player, and Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski says the Tigers are done dealing. However, the Reds and Pirates might still make a move for an outfielder.



The Reds reportedly turned down a Shane Victorino-for-Logan Ondrusek offer, which -- if true -- seems like a strange decision. If the Twins can be persuaded to sell, maybe Denard Span would be more to Cincinnati's liking. Justin Upton, Josh Willingham and even B.J. Upton might be beyond the Pirates' means. But if the Boston Red Sox decide to sell, impending free agent Cody Ross could solve Pittsburgh's corner outfield conundrum.



Ben Lindbergh is the Editor-in-Chief of Baseball Prospectus. He formerly worked as a baseball analyst for Bloomberg Sports, has interned for multiple MLB teams, and is a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.
 
RaWeX05 said:
Marlins might give back the new stadium.
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they do a decent job of making a profit , thats what the whole ordeal was about last year.....they con'd the city into paying for part of the stadium.

so i would imagine with attendance up and more ad/merchandising/parking revenue they should be ok money wise
 
Proshares said:
Man no one is hitting 30 at Target Field, except Willingham who has somehow managed to crack in Oakland and Minnesota which is astounding to me :lol:
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I was talking more specifically their final years in the Metrodome, but yes, it was less likely at Target Field.

Willingham is simply the man! This year probably is his ceiling though. :lol:
 
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WearinTheFourFive said:
ooIRON MANoo said:
WearinTheFourFive said:
It would've been a good move, if the Marlins were picking up half the remaining contract (like they were going to if they traded him to the A's). So yeah, the Dodgers made a dumb move.
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Please explain how it's a "dumb move" Mr. Salt?
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It's arithmetic, m'lady:

Hanley has been worth 3 WAR total over the last 2 years.

On the open market, 1 WAR is worth approximately $5 million.

Hanley is due $31.5 million over the next two years.

In order to make good on their investment, the Dodgers need Hanley to perform twice as well over the next two seasons compared to the last 2 seasons.

The A's, who also tried to trade for Hanley, were going to make the Marlins take on half of the remaining contract, so Hanley would be due about $15 million over the next two seasons total. For the A's to then justify their investment, Hanley would only have to maintain his current playing level.

In my humble opinion, this looks like an apparent move by the new ownership to make a move at the trade deadline in order to show the fanbase that they are moving in a new direction. Sadly, the team has been over paying players for quite some time now (see Jason Shmidt and Andrew Jones signings).
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Wouldn't compare this move to those two. Hanley is younger, better and slightly cheaper than both of those guys. I agree that it would've been nice to have the Marlins pay half of the contract, but the Dodgers are finally acting like a big market team so that wasn't a huge factor for them.

Even if you want to argue that they're overpaying, at least its for a player who was an all star and MVP candidate just a couple of years ago and he fills a HUGE hole for the team. So yes, if the A's would've taken on his full contract, I guess you could say it would've been a dumb move. But since the Dodgers are willing and able to spend now, it really was a no brainer.  

Ethier-Kemp-Ramirez in the middle of the line-up for the next couple of years...
smokin.gif
 
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trey ohh five said:
I can't tell you how disappointed I am in the Marlins. Traded the player that has been most loyal to us for the past 7 years, I'm seriously considering switching my allegiance to a team that actually cares about the fans.
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fans don't care either. y'all never have.
 
WearinTheFourFive said:
It's arithmetic, m'lady:
Hanley has been worth 3 WAR total over the last 2 years.
On the open market, 1 WAR is worth approximately $5 million.
Hanley is due $31.5 million over the next two years.
In order to make good on their investment, the Dodgers need Hanley to perform twice as well over the next two seasons compared to the last 2 seasons.
The A's, who also tried to trade for Hanley, were going to make the Marlins take on half of the remaining contract, so Hanley would be due about $15 million over the next two seasons total. For the A's to then justify their investment, Hanley would only have to maintain his current playing level.
In my humble opinion, this looks like an apparent move by the new ownership to make a move at the trade deadline in order to show the fanbase that they are moving in a new direction. Sadly, the team has been over paying players for quite some time now (see Jason Shmidt and Andrew Jones signings).
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Spoken like a true fan of a small market team... Glad we are not there anymore.

Unfortunately our farm system isn't deep due to lack of spending on the player development side. The only chip is taking on money, that feels good to say.

This isn't the open market either. Obviously the A's have a plethora of prospects that is the chip they play. Our chip was better than yours. Did they overpay? Yes. Is Hanley living up to his contract? No Look at every big market team in contention and they all have a big contract or two, because they can afford to.

The best part of the Hanley trade isn't Hanley, it's the fact that ownership said "Hell yeah, don't trip, we'll cover that $38 mil left". On top of that they are still putting together additional trades. Hanley at current levels is better than the players we currently have.

Risk worth taking. Bought low, huge upside.

Dempster for Martin and Gould :/
 
Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN
We've reached the point on Dempster LAD-CHC talks where both sides know what the other wants to do. Now we'll see if something changes.
 
Good for them, I've been prepared for them or Texas to get him. Who cares what he does the rest of the season, let's see what he does when the lights shine brightest. If last year was any indication...Oh yea, they can never complain about what the Yanks did in the 00's again though :lol:

*cough* SKA *cough*
 
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