2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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dland24 said:
Did you guys know that Chipper Jones caused a forest fire the other day?

700


Cant help but giggle a little it.
Click to expand...
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...started-a-fire-in-the-woods-outside-his-house

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...y-starts-forest-fire-tweets-article-1.1589485
 
isnt that some kind of crime? (assuming that he doesnt own the forest behind his house too)...the dudes who accidentally started the wildfires in CA got charged with a crime no?
 
Yankees still a fourth-place team.

Unless you were deep in the heart of the Amazon or making that final ascent to the summit of Mount Everest, you probably heard that the New York Yankees signed a pitcher on Wednesday. Not just any pitcher, mind you, but Masahiro Tanaka, the import from Nippon Professional Baseball, and the best player available in a free-agent market that's already seen most of the big names sign contracts.

You also may have heard that a lot of currency was involved in making this deal happen, $155 million, spread out over seven years, a lot of money even for an MLB team in 2014.

If the Yu Darvish contract and Darvish's performance had not already done it, the bidding war for Tanaka and the eventual dollar figure of the contract officially closes the door on the era in which players from Japan's professional league were considered novelties. From now on, NPB's top stars will be looked at as comparable to very good MLBers, and their contracts will continue to reflect this reality. But that's an article for another day.

You're here for the bottom line -- specifically, the real-world effect on the bottom line of the Yankees' win total in 2014. So let's get cracking.

The Yankees are a team facing difficult challenges going into the 2014 season. A surprising frugality set over the organization the last few years thanks to the team's obsession with getting the payroll under the luxury tax limit in order to "reset" the penalties. An aging team, the Yankees did little last winter to staunch the bleeding of talent due to departures and age. The team still managed to put together 85 wins and stay relevant until the closing weeks of the season, but it didn't seem so much as a heroic battle in which the Yankees simply came out on the losing end, but more akin to an aging lion in the African veldt, giving one last weak roar as the jackals take his kill.

Star, not a superstar
Masahiro Tanaka's ZiPS projection.

Year ERA IP ERA+ WAR
2014 3.68 191 113 3.8
2015 3.55 185 117 4
2016 3.48 168 120 3.7
2017 3.4 150.2 122 3.5
2018 3.5 141.1 119 3.1
2019 3.6 132.2 116 2.8
2020 3.69 124.1 113 2.5
Playoffs? Playoffs?
Where did the Yankees stand before the signing? To get an idea, I fired up the old ZiPS projection system and the Monte Carlo simulator and used 2014 projections to get an estimate of the team's chances of contention. Before the Tanaka signing, the Yankees' mean projected record came out at 80-82, the worst of the five teams in the AL East. There's a great deal of uncertainty, and a team projected to have 80-win talent may actually have 85- or 75-win talent. Or possibly even 90- or 70-win talent. That's the use of a Monte Carlo system, putting together all these uncertain probabilities.

In the end, after simulating the 2014 season a million times (assuming current roster construction), the pre-Tanaka Yankees won the division 7.2 percent of the time, made the playoffs either through a division championship or a wild card 19.7 percent of the time, and won the World Series in 1.7 percent of the million simulations. Adding Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann helps the team, but only really cancels out the loss of Robinson Cano -- it doesn't fix the team's other holes. The only question is just how much Tanaka moves the needle.

Tanaka's projections in New York are solid (see table above), but the problem for the Yankees is that Tanaka is unlikely to be is a true superstar, someone like Clayton Kershaw, who can actually add six to 10 wins to a team.

His projected 3.8 WAR represents a three to four-win upgrade for the Yankees, with his innings likely to displace some combination of innings thrown by David Phelps, Michael Pineda, Vidal Nuno and a few others, projected to be somewhere between around 1.0 WAR.

Running the simulation a second time, with the Tanaka boost now built-in, the outlook for the Yankees improves, but not to the degree that it thrusts the franchise back into the first tier of playoff contenders. The Tanaka Yankees simulate to an 83-80 average finish, which keeps them behind every other AL East team other than Baltimore, and gives them a 12.0 percent shot at the division, 29.4 percent playoff odds and 2.6 percent odds of winning the World Series.
Minor changes
The odds of New York making the playoffs, winning the division and World Series, before and after the Tanaka signing.

PLAYOFFS DIV WS
Before 7.2% 19.7% 1.7%
After 12.0% 29.4% 2.6%
To put the probabilities a different way, Tanaka improves the Yankees' chances to win the AL East by only 4.8 percentage points, claim a wild card by only 9.7 percentage points, and win the World Series by less than 1 percentage point.

Tanaka's likely to succeed in the majors, but he doesn't fix the Yankees by himself.

Still good dollar value
Purely from a value standpoint, $155 million for Tanaka is not unreasonable. ZiPS still believes Tanaka has growth left as a pitcher and assuming $5.45 million per win in free agency with 5 percent yearly growth, estimates that a pitcher of Tanaka's abilities should earn $146 million over seven years in a straight-up contract in free agency. There's also an opt-out clause after four years that provides additional cost to the Yankees, as Tanaka's ability to seek a new contract if he hits his optimistic projections reduces the upside that the Yankees can wring out of the contract.

The indirect costs to the Yankees are high as well. This was the team's best chance to reset the luxury tax penalty to the minimum. With Tanaka in the fold at $22 million a year, the Yankees already have $147 million in guaranteed contracts for nine players in 2015 and $142 million guaranteed for seven players in 2016.

Before the Tanaka signing, the Yankees appeared to be an aging, expensive, hole-ridden team, with a weak farm system, that had an uphill fight to be serious contenders. After the Tanaka signing, the Yankees appear to be a slightly better aging, expensive, hole-ridden team, with a weak farm system, that has an uphill fight to be contenders. The Bronx Bombers are expensively raging against the dying of the light, but the Masahiro Tanaka signing only delays the darkness.

Pitchers poised to make 'the leap'.

One of 2013's big stories was the emergence of Max Scherzer, the eventual American League Cy Young Award winner. Though he entered the season with a career-best ERA of 3.50 and neither an All-Star Game or Cy Young vote to his name, the 28-year-old righty dominated the AL en route to a 21-3 record, a sterling 2.90 ERA, and the Cy Young Award.

The elite pitchers in baseball don't emerge from the ground, fully formed stars in the manner of Greek mythology; they usually come from the group of good to very good pitchers. Somewhere out there, there's a merely good pitcher about to become a terrific one. The challenge is identifying just who that will be.

The odds of any particular pitcher taking a step forward are relatively small -- if it were easy, everybody would do it -- but here are my favorite candidates to break out and have a Cy Young-esque 2014 season.


Mat Latos, RHP | Cincinnati Reds
Still just 26 years old for the 2014 season, Latos has been one of the more dependable starters during in the majors, never missing serious time (127 starts in four full seasons), with his worst single-season ERA being just 3.48.

At 6-foot-6, Latos looks like a pitcher, and his stuff, a few fastball flavors, slider, curve, and change, all thrown with good command, tends to agree. Despite a record for durability, we have yet to see a full season of Latos being completely "on" as he continued to pitch through shoulder soreness (2011), an abdominal strain (2013), and suffered a rough start in 2012 while he adjusted to the pitcher-unfriendly confines of Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

He finished eighth in the NL in FIP (3.10) last season and appears ready to take the next step.


Jeff Samardzija, RHP | Chicago Cubs
Three years ago, Samardzija's name being on a list like this would be absolutely ludicrous. Lots of people -- myself included -- doubted the Cubs could ever turn Samardzija from a flamethrower with miserable command into a top-flight starter.

Even the Cubs appeared to question their chances at times, trying the Shark in a number of roles in his first three stints in the majors, which consisted of a 5.95 ERA and 50 walks in 81 2/3 innings for Chicago. He even struggled at times to get minor leaguers out, with a 4.17 ERA and five walks per game in Triple-A -- not exactly screaming "top-flight starter."

The wide receiver jokes about Samardzija are a thing of the past as he continues to show steady improvement. Sometimes the hardest thing for a prospect to do is lose those extra walks, but while he's no Bob Tewksbury, his 3.1 walks per nine in the past two seasons is quite respectable. Samardzija's second half featured a rather ugly 4.72 ERA, but a lot of that was fueled by a .324 BABIP as the Cubs' summer turned sour faster than an egg salad sandwich left sitting in your car.


Rick Porcello, RHP | Detroit Tigers
It would seem almost unfair for the Tigers to get the next Max Scherzer, but despite a mixed-record in the majors, Porcello retains some breakout potential.

He's still very young -- he just turned 25, is younger than Chris Archer and a few months older than Matt Harvey -- and his strikeout rate has shown continual improvement (from 4.7 his first two seasons to 7.2 last year) and his FIP has gone down every year he's been in the majors.

What has hidden Porcello's improvement is that he's a ground ball pitcher (third-highest ground ball percentage in baseball last year) on a team that had been playing a lot of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. An infield of Cabrera (at first), Ian Kinsler, Jose Iglesias, and Nick Castellanos is likely to provide better defensive support for Porcello in 2014.


Justin Masterson, RHP | Cleveland Indians
By ERA, Masterson's 2013 was not as strong as his career-best 2011, but there is one key difference: strikeout rate. From 2010 to 2012, his rate hovered at about 17 percent, but in 2013 it jumped up to 24.3 percent. Strikeout rates for pitchers tend to stabilize very quickly, much less prone to the lucky/unlucky runs that can sometimes plague other pitcher statistics, like BABIP and homers allowed.

A 30 percent boost in strikeout rate is nothing to laugh at -- it was Scherzer's jump from 8.0 K/9 to 11.1 K/9 in 2012 that set off my alarm -- and all that's missing for the grounder-heavy Masterson is a top-notch infield defense.


Homer Bailey, RHP | Cincinnati Reds
After years of underperforming, Bailey finally established himself as a Real Major Leaguer in 2012, but I still suspect that his upside is higher than the solid 111 ERA+ he has put up the past two seasons.

In 2013, Bailey was 11th in baseball in percentage of pitches that were swinging strikes. The top 10 includes both Cy Young Award winners and five others who received votes (Yu Darvish, Anibal Sanchez, Sale, Harvey, and Madison Bumgarner). Bailey throws hard, with the seventh-fastest fastball average in 2013 and the second-fastest slider, and given his ability to miss bats, his upside is higher than simply being a good No. 2 or 3 starter.


Ivan Nova, RHP | New York Yankees
Nova cut back on his fastball usage in 2012 and saw his ERA rocket above 5.00. He went back to his heater 60 percent of the time in 2013, and got his ERA down to 3.10 in 20 starts. His biggest problem may not be other batters so much as an infield with more holes than the plot of a Michael Bay movie.

Two small-market clubs going all-in.

When the New York Yankees really go for it, when they unleash their financial might in an effort to protect their brand and win a championship, that means firing almost half-a-billion dollars at the best and most expensive players.

Two other teams have unleashed the full fury of their resources this winter, although you might've missed it. The Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres have pulled out all stops, and if you're trying to imagine what that looks like, well, just think of drag-racing Mini-Coopers.

That is not said to demean either franchise. Actually, it's noted with great admiration. This is a baseball version of The Charge of the Light Brigades, and the Padres and Rays should be respected for it, for doing all that they can to compete against the moneyed monsters within their respective divisions.

The Rays agreed to terms with Grant Balfour Thursday, in a winter in which they spent dollars to sign James Loney and David DeJesus, their own free agents. To put those numbers in context: Masahiro Tanaka will make a little over $22 million per season in his seven-year deal with the Yankees, and Loney's $21 million, three-year deal represents the Rays' largest investment in a free agent ... ever; Balfour represents the third-largest investment. Unless some great offer suddenly emerges for David Price, it appears the Rays will keep the Cy Young left-hander, in spite of his $14 million salary, and go into the 2014 season with a franchise-record $74 million payroll, or about 18 to 20 percent higher than their 2013 budget.

The Padres have quietly made a similar move, a push that really began a couple of years ago with the team's new ownership approving deals for Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, and then taking on Ian Kennedy last summer in the midst of his arbitration years. This winter, the Padres committed $8 million for Josh Johnson, signed Joaquin Benoit to a two-year, $15.5 million deal, traded for Seth Smith to address a specific roster need, and traded for left-hander Alex Torres in a seven-player deal with the Rays on Wednesday.

And just as the Rays seem to be leaning toward keeping Price, rather than flipping him for prospects, the Padres have chosen to carry third baseman Chase Headley into the last season before he becomes eligible for free agency, instead of trading him.

It appears that the Padres will take a payroll of about $85 million into the 2014 season, or about $30 million more than the team spent in 2012.

Padres GM Josh Byrnes noted the improvement of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, the expected return of Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly, in addition to Kennedy and Johnson. It's possible that San Diego could have one of the best pitching staffs in the National League. To contend with the powers of the NL West, Byrnes said, "we're going to have to have really, really good pitching, and we'll at least have a chance."

Friedman, in the Dominican Republic, wrote in an e-mail: "We want to give our organization the best chance to compete and to win. We know that it's going to cost us more than we can practically afford. In some respects it's the price of our success. If we didn't have these types of players, if we didn't have the opportunity for a great season we'd be looking at a significantly different payroll."

Around the league

• Jon Lester made it very clear: He's willing to take a hometown discount to stay in Boston.

How much could that mean, given Lester's age and pitching history?

One comparable might be what Matt Cain got with the Giants before the 2012 season -- the six-year, $127.5 million deal which also covered the 2012 season. The Red Sox might prefer something closer to the $80 million, five-year deal that Anibal Sanchez got from the Tigers.

For years, there had always been some question about how good Lester good be, because he wasn't as consistently excellent as the game's very best pitchers. But in his work in the last months of the 2013 season, and through the postseason, he seemed to climb from the lofty second tier of starting pitchers into the top tier. He seemed to fully realize his potential, pitching to both sides of the plate.

In the second half of 2013, Lester allowed just four homers in 87 2/3 innings, with a 2.57 ERA, and in five starts in October, he surrendered only six earned runs in 34 2/3 innings, with 29 strikeouts. He would seem to be worthy of a solid five-year investment, at least, with perhaps some haggling over a sixth year.

• Grady Sizemore, now 31, hasn't played in a major league game since 2011, and he's had a total of 435 plate appearances since 2009. The Red Sox did extensive work leading up to their signing of Sizemore, to get a sense of where he is.

"We spent quite a bit of time with him over the last couple weeks, mostly in Arizona," said GM Ben Cherington. "Our scouts and medical staff went out there to see him. He's doing everything possible to put himself in a position to play and of course we know how good he is when he can do that. We think we can help him, but we'll know a lot more by the end of March."

John Farrell has a long history with Sizemore.

Sizemore changed his mind at the last minute, says Reds GM Walt Jocketty.

• Matt Garza is close to landing a four-year, $52 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, although as of Thursday evening, it hadn't been pushed across the finish line.

Club officials with other teams indicated that they were leery of giving him more than a three-year contract because of his history of elbow trouble, but Garza has some extra appeal as the best available free-agent pitcher who is not tied to draft-pick compensation. The fact that Garza is prepared to take a four-year deal with a team not viewed as a classic landing spot for pitchers is a clue that the Brewers separated themselves by being willing to consider a fourth year.

The Cardinals should be prohibitive favorites to win the NL Central, based on statistical models and the potency of their young pitching, but the Brewers could be interesting; they usually hit, and with the addition of Kyle Lohse and Garza in the last year, their rotation will be improved, undoubtedly. Just as the Yankees had to extend themselves in the Tanaka bidding because of the failure of their player development system to produce good young pitching, the Brewers have had to fill in the gaps of what they are not generating from within.

• The Pirates are turning the page on A.J. Burnett's return, writes Jerry Crasnick.

• Jonny Gomes had some thoughts about the Yankees. Gomes also had some specific thoughts on A-Rod, as Scott Lauber writes. From the piece:
"He does steroids or whatever, it sucks. He does this or that, it sucks. He's always in the news, it sucks," the Red Sox left fielder told the Herald yesterday before the 75th annual Boston Baseball Writers' dinner. "But this is the players' union he's going against. It's all of us. Not a real good idea."

Rodriguez recently filed a lawsuit against the MLBPA and Major League Baseball in an attempt to overturn a 162-game suspension for his violation of the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. It was expected that the embattled New York Yankees third baseman would take action against MLB, but turning against the union has irritated many players in the rank and file, including Gomes.

The union represented A-Rod in his arbitration hearing last fall, but Rodriguez' suit claims the MLBPA "abdicated its responsibility" to defend a player and even takes issue with former union chief Michael Weiner, who died of brain cancer in November.

"I think what he had going on is pretty individual," Gomes said. "He did it. It was his decision, his suspension. But I don't think it's really a good idea to go after our union. Down to my (expletive) kids, down to the benefits we have, down to our retirement fund, the union makes our lives better.

"We pay dues to the union for our rights ... Him and the Yankees were butting heads last year. Whatever, don't care. But he's truly going against every single major league player, and every single major league player that's played this game before. It brings a whole different light on things."

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Orioles haven't talked with Fernando Rodney in weeks, writes Dan Connolly.

2. The Orioles signed Aaron Laffey.

3. Nothing is pending with a contract extension, says Max Scherzer.

4. The Royals signed Jon Rauch.

5. David Aardsma agreed to terms with the Indians.

6. Sooner is better for an extension for Giancarlo Stanton, says the Marlins' GM.

7. The Giants worked out a two-year deal with a utility player.

Dings and dents

1. Matt Harvey wants to come back in September.

2. Miguel Cabrera says he's ready to go.

NL East

• Darin Ruf is ready for any role.

• Mike Adams is something of a forgotten man.

NL Central

• Don't count the Pirates in yet, writes Dejan Kovacevic.

AL East

• Blue Jays fans are fidgety, writes John Lott.

• Alex Anthopoulos is taking the brunt of the criticism for the Jays' inaction this winter, but the bottom line is always the budget -- as it is for the Orioles' Dan Duquette. These GMs are required to paint within the lines prescribed by ownership, and to this point, there has been no indication that either Anthopoulos or Duquette has gotten a green light to increase payroll. Last year was the first season in Jays' history that the team went over $100 million.

• Bob Elliott wonders: What's next for the Jays?

AL Central

• Rick Hahn's moves have revitalized the White Sox fan base.

• Brian Dozier is worthy of a good guy award, writes Jim Souhan.

• Drew Smyly is excited about joining the Tigers' rotation.

• Nick Castellanos is comfortable at third base, writes Lynn Henning.

• Gordon Beckham is over his injuries.

• Bench and bullpen will be key for the Indians, writes Paul Hoynes.

AL West

• A Hall of Famer is delivering advice to Texas pitchers.

• Michael Kirkman is on his last opportunity with the Rangers.

• The Mariners' manager has become the latest disciple of the Seahawks' coach.
 
When it comes to drugs and PED's don't know why baseball has always been under the microscope. NBA and the NFL, have the same issues, yet it is always swept under the rug.
 
Not fourth best Deadset but probably still behind TB and Boston.

They could potentially have one of the worst infields of all time :lol: I'm glad they got Tanaka but that's mostly because it'll stop them from spending blindly on the upcoming FA SP's.

There's just so much that needs to go 100% right in order for them to stand in the hunt. The AL could legitimately have 10 contending teams :x think the NL is in for an even worse beating this year unfortunately.
 
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ooIRON MANoo said:
When it comes to drugs and PED's don't know why baseball has always been under the microscope. NBA and the NFL, have the same issues, yet it is always swept under the rug.
Click to expand...

It's because the stats in baseball mean much more than the stats in any other league.
 
Proshares said:
Not fourth best Deadset but probably still behind TB and Boston.

They could potentially have one of the worst infields of all time
laugh.gif
I'm glad they got Tanaka but that's mostly because it'll stop them from spending blindly on the upcoming FA SP's.

There's just so much that needs to go 100% right in order for them to stand in the hunt. The AL could legitimately have 10 contending teams
sick.gif
think the NL is in for an even worse beating this year unfortunately.
Click to expand...
Wait, but wasn't signing Tanaka essentially (to use your words) "spending blindly on the free agent pitchers?" 
laugh.gif
 
Sure, I guess that's one way to look at it :lol: I was referring more to the upcoming FA class. They needed the signing for this upcoming season.

If Kershaw was still without an extension, I would have been more opposed. I say it because if they went into the season sans Tanaka combined with either CC continuing to struggle or missing the playoffs again, I have no doubt in my mind they would have made Scherzer the next $200mm+ pitcher. Masterson and Bailey are the only guys upcoming under 30 (barely) and they'll end up getting close to $100mm next off season. As much as I like Bailey, that's obscene. I'll take my chances on a 25 year old for 4 years I guess.

Long walk for a short drink of water.
 
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