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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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Cowboys*
Ranking all 30 farm systems.
To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)
The future is now
The full schedule of Keith Law's annual prospect rankings package.
Jan. 28: Farm system rankings
Jan. 29: Top 100 prospects
Jan. 30: AL East top 10s | ALC | ALW
Jan. 31: NL East top 10s | NLC | NLW
Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and also have depth down to and past the end of their top 10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released on Thursday and Friday.)
Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple of very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars, and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salaried players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.
One last point: Of my top 10 farm systems, only three are "large market" teams (although the proper term would be "high revenue"). Scouting and player development are still the best way to build a competitive major league team, and while some extra money in scouting helps, success in either area is far more a function of the people you employ than the money you throw at the players. Good organizations hire and retain good people, enact strong processes and then execute them -- even when fans or writers don't see the big picture.
1. Houston Astros
On the one hand, when you pick first overall every year, you should probably end up with a pretty good farm system, and the Astros' top five prospects are all first-round picks. On the other hand, the Astros have done everything they needed to do to restock what was a few years ago the worst system in the majors, like exceeding MLB's recommended signing bonuses for Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz in 2012, or landing prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Domingo Santana and Asher Wojciechowski in trades.
They've become more aggressive in Latin America, as well, after years of dormancy following the departure of legendary Venezuelan scout Andres Reiner in 2005, and have been willing to endure some brutal seasons at the major league level in pursuit of the goal of strengthening the weak system. They have depth and they have a couple of high-ceiling guys at the top of the system, getting close to the point where the light at the end of the tunnel no longer looks like an oncoming train. It's been ugly, Astros fans, but hang in there.
2. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have more high-end talent -- I'm referring to players who have both high ceilings and also have a reasonable probability of getting close to those ceilings -- than any other organization right now. They have a pair of potential future MVP candidates in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, with more power arms than this system has had in ages. They don't quite have Houston's depth, but the gap between the systems is quite small.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Almost everything went right for the Pirates in 2013 -- and I'm only talking about their farm system. They bounced back from failing to sign their first-round pick in '12, Mark Appel, by landing the best prep hitter in last year's class in Austin Meadows, while several prospects already in the system took huge steps forward into my overall top 20.
4. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.
Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.
5. Boston Red Sox
They rival Houston for the best top 10 of any team, with as many prospects on the top 100 as the Astros have, and while they don't have Houston's depth, Boston's system is pretty deep, with at least a half-dozen pitching prospects who reasonably project (that is, not just pie-in-the-sky forecasting) as No. 4 starters or better.
And that ignores the part about their best prospects being position players who hit and most of whom play very good defense. When a defensive whiz like Christian Vazquez, a catcher who can hit a little, can't crack your top 10, you're doing a lot of things right.
6. New York Mets
The turnaround in this system is remarkable, especially when you consider they have not had a top-10 pick since they took Matt Harvey in 2010, and it puts the Mets in excellent shape relative to the other four teams in their division.
The decisions to trade R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd look even better in hindsight. The Mets also have one of the minors' best collections of pitchers who throw strikes but aren't strictly finesse guys.
7. Kansas City Royals
The first wave of top Royals prospects hit Kansas City over the past two years, but most of them haven't come close to expectations yet -- although I think Eric Hosmer has finally turned that corner. The next group is less hyped, but might be just as good, with power arms leading the way and a couple of strong bats.
This wave of talent is shallower than the last one, but the Royals' biggest window of contention is going to start very soon.
8. Colorado Rockies
A sneaky-good system, although with Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray throwing 98 mph tablets by hitters I doubt the Rockies can keep their prospect depth on the QT. They've generally been a productive club in Latin America despite avoiding the biggest bonus babies, and I'm in the camp that assumes that 2012 first-rounder David Dahl will return this April without missing a beat.
9. San Diego Padres
The Padres were my top system two years ago and graduated a lot of that depth to the majors. However, they filled the void nicely with two more solid drafts, helping make up for lost seasons from Casey Kelly and Rymer Liriano (both of whom missed 2013 due to Tommy John surgery).
Their recent trade for major league reliever Alex Torres also included Jesse Hahn, another power arm to add to the system, but he missed their top 10 behind several pitchers with a better chance to remain starters.
10. Baltimore Orioles
Very top-heavy, but a strong front five, all on the top 100, due in no small part to a string of four straight solid first-round picks since the Matt Hobgood fiasco. (Hobgood, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 draft, has a 5.05 ERA in his career and hasn't made it past Class A.)
Their depth is improving, though it's still behind where it'll need to be to keep the club competitive in the AL East, and more investment in intriguing international amateurs like Olelky Peralta will help bolster the system.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
Also a very top-heavy system, like Baltimore's, with two elite guys at the top and three solid guys after, followed by a lot of reliever/fifth starter depth. They did have some intriguing arms in short-season ball who could push this system's overall value up a lot by next year, especially since none of their top eight prospects are likely to lose eligibility in 2014.
12. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have produced so much homegrown talent over the past five years that it's hard to believe they're still above the median, but with potential superstar Oscar Taveras on top, a half-dozen more prospects who project as regulars or better, and lots of pitching and bench depth, they're poised to keep stocking the major league team for several more years. One system weakness, though, as you might have heard: shortstop.
13. Texas Rangers
Most of the talent here is very young and likely three years away, but there is as much All-Star potential in this system as there is in just about any of the systems after the top five -- just a lot less probability, as guys like Joey Gallo or Lewis Brinson could be elite big leaguers just as easily as they could wash out in Double-A.
14. Philadelphia Phillies
Similar to Texas but with fewer prospects who are potential grade 65 or better players in the majors. I thought the Phillies had one of the best drafts, perhaps the best of anyone, in 2013, landing a few high-ceiling high school kids -- such as shortstop J.P. Crawford -- while mixing in some solid college bats like catcher Andrew Knapp.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
A lot of high-ceiling pitching here, which is probably a good strategy for a team that plays in a hitter's park 1,100 feet above sea level, but light on near-term position players other than shortstop Chris Owings.
One bright spot on the hitting side: Brandon Drury, who looked like a throw-in to the Justin Upton trade, but broke out with a big year for low Class A South Bend and may help salvage a mostly disastrous trade for the D-backs.
16. Cincinnati Reds
Plenty of outfielders and power arms here, light up the middle and possibly light on starting pitching candidates after Robert Stephenson. At worst, they'll put a pretty good bullpen together on the cheap from all of those A-ball starters, a group that includes 2012 supplemental first-round pick Nick Travieso.
17. Cleveland Indians
Danny Salazar reaching the majors was great for the system, but deletes him from the Indians' top 10, and they had several prospects who had disappointing years, none more than former No. 3 overall pick Trevor Bauer, whose stuff wavered and who couldn't throw strikes. Aggressive promotions for Dorssys Paulino and Jose Ramirez hurt their performances, although both are still promising middle infield prospects.
18. Washington Nationals
The Nats' system has a little more depth than it's had in several years, but most of their elite prospects have already graduated, with only Lucas Giolito in the overall top 50. Their list's caliber drops off quickly after six or seven names.
19. Miami Marlins
They keep graduating guys like Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich faster than most other organizations would, which doesn't help their ranking but also is one positive way that the front office has bucked the industry. They don't stash good players in the minors to manipulate service time -- when a kid shows he might be ready, he's up to sink or swim. This will be a big year for some starter prospects in the system who may be on the cusp of a move to the pen.
20. New York Yankees
It seemed like everyone who mattered in this system got hurt in 2013, and of those who didn't most had disappointing years. The good news is every one of the injured prospects should be healthy to start 2014 (except Slade Heathcott, for whom "healthy" is an abstract concept), but it also means the Mason Williamses and Tyler Austins of the system will run out of excuses if they don't hit.
A strong day one draft class in 2013 -- when they had three of the top 33 picks -- helped boost the system.
21. Seattle Mariners
The M's graduated three top prospects to the majors in 2013 in Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, so there's less on the farm now after the two starting pitchers (Taijuan Walker and James Paxton) who are on the cusp of helping the big league team. Their Class A clubs will be the teams to watch if you're looking for prospects.
22. Atlanta Braves
A very top-heavy system, led by first-rounder Lucas Sims and Panamanian catcher Christian Bethancourt, but years of subpar drafts as well as trades to bolster the major league team have thinned the system out. Atlanta is the only team with two undrafted (yet draft-eligible) free agents in its top 10 prospects.
23. Tampa Bay Rays
Years of good trades helped keep the Rays near the top of the list since I started compiling these rankings, but they've been crushed by the graduations of Wil Myers and Chris Archer last year plus several unproductive drafts -- when Kevin Kiermaier and Tim Beckham reached the majors in September, they were the first players drafted and developed by the Rays to suit up for the team since David Price and Matt Moore from the 2007 draft.
The Rays have been hurt by on-field success that gives them lower picks and limits their draft and international bonus pools, but they haven't fared well even within those limits.
24. Toronto Blue Jays
It's tough to trade away three top 100 prospects, as the Jays did last winter, and maintain a strong system, but the Jays compounded that problem by failing to sign their first overall pick (Phil Bickford) for the second time in three years.
The Jays can afford to trade prospects if they're hitting on high draft picks, but they haven't done so often enough other than the selections they ended up dealing.
25. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have a lot of high-floor arms in their system and a couple of intriguing up-the-middle bats, but not quite enough of either to overcome a lack of high-ceiling (potential star) prospects after hard-throwing Kyle Crick. They are in position to use that pitching depth to make a midseason acquisition if they need to this year, which wasn't true of their system going into 2013.
26. Oakland Athletics
The A's have one of the youngest top 10s of any team in the majors, but aside from budding superstar Addison Russell, most of their talent is far away and still very uncertain.
27. Chicago White Sox
The ranking doesn't reflect it yet, but this system is headed in the right direction thanks to better drafts, including a few surprises from later-round picks. I did not include Cuban defector Jose Abreu in any rankings, as he's 27 years old, but the Sox would be higher if he counted in their favor.
28. Detroit Tigers
This system boils down to third baseman Nick Castellanos and a lot of power arms who seem like probable relievers, as well as some slick defensive middle infielders, any of whom could establish himself as a valuable asset with a year of offensive production. I'd like the system more had the Doug Fister trade yielded a top-50 prospect, as you'd expect given Fister's performance the past two years.
29. Los Angeles Angels
An awful system after years of lost first-round picks and trades to bulk up the major league team, it improved marginally in 2013 with some new arms, but regression from most of the top position player prospects in the system was a huge disappointment.
30. Milwaukee Brewers
There may not be a player in this system who projects as an above-average player in the majors; the best bets are all teenagers who played in low Class A or below in 2013, and none is close to a lock to get there.
The system lacks ceiling and it lacks depth beyond reliever candidates and likely fourth outfielders, with nothing in the middle of the diamond and no starting pitching of note.
The future is now
The full schedule of Keith Law's annual prospect rankings package.
Jan. 28: Farm system rankings
Jan. 29: Top 100 prospects
Jan. 30: AL East top 10s | ALC | ALW
Jan. 31: NL East top 10s | NLC | NLW
Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and also have depth down to and past the end of their top 10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released on Thursday and Friday.)
Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple of very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars, and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salaried players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.
One last point: Of my top 10 farm systems, only three are "large market" teams (although the proper term would be "high revenue"). Scouting and player development are still the best way to build a competitive major league team, and while some extra money in scouting helps, success in either area is far more a function of the people you employ than the money you throw at the players. Good organizations hire and retain good people, enact strong processes and then execute them -- even when fans or writers don't see the big picture.
1. Houston Astros
On the one hand, when you pick first overall every year, you should probably end up with a pretty good farm system, and the Astros' top five prospects are all first-round picks. On the other hand, the Astros have done everything they needed to do to restock what was a few years ago the worst system in the majors, like exceeding MLB's recommended signing bonuses for Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz in 2012, or landing prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Domingo Santana and Asher Wojciechowski in trades.
They've become more aggressive in Latin America, as well, after years of dormancy following the departure of legendary Venezuelan scout Andres Reiner in 2005, and have been willing to endure some brutal seasons at the major league level in pursuit of the goal of strengthening the weak system. They have depth and they have a couple of high-ceiling guys at the top of the system, getting close to the point where the light at the end of the tunnel no longer looks like an oncoming train. It's been ugly, Astros fans, but hang in there.
2. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have more high-end talent -- I'm referring to players who have both high ceilings and also have a reasonable probability of getting close to those ceilings -- than any other organization right now. They have a pair of potential future MVP candidates in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, with more power arms than this system has had in ages. They don't quite have Houston's depth, but the gap between the systems is quite small.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Almost everything went right for the Pirates in 2013 -- and I'm only talking about their farm system. They bounced back from failing to sign their first-round pick in '12, Mark Appel, by landing the best prep hitter in last year's class in Austin Meadows, while several prospects already in the system took huge steps forward into my overall top 20.
4. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.
Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.
5. Boston Red Sox
They rival Houston for the best top 10 of any team, with as many prospects on the top 100 as the Astros have, and while they don't have Houston's depth, Boston's system is pretty deep, with at least a half-dozen pitching prospects who reasonably project (that is, not just pie-in-the-sky forecasting) as No. 4 starters or better.
And that ignores the part about their best prospects being position players who hit and most of whom play very good defense. When a defensive whiz like Christian Vazquez, a catcher who can hit a little, can't crack your top 10, you're doing a lot of things right.
6. New York Mets
The turnaround in this system is remarkable, especially when you consider they have not had a top-10 pick since they took Matt Harvey in 2010, and it puts the Mets in excellent shape relative to the other four teams in their division.
The decisions to trade R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd look even better in hindsight. The Mets also have one of the minors' best collections of pitchers who throw strikes but aren't strictly finesse guys.
7. Kansas City Royals
The first wave of top Royals prospects hit Kansas City over the past two years, but most of them haven't come close to expectations yet -- although I think Eric Hosmer has finally turned that corner. The next group is less hyped, but might be just as good, with power arms leading the way and a couple of strong bats.
This wave of talent is shallower than the last one, but the Royals' biggest window of contention is going to start very soon.
8. Colorado Rockies
A sneaky-good system, although with Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray throwing 98 mph tablets by hitters I doubt the Rockies can keep their prospect depth on the QT. They've generally been a productive club in Latin America despite avoiding the biggest bonus babies, and I'm in the camp that assumes that 2012 first-rounder David Dahl will return this April without missing a beat.
9. San Diego Padres
The Padres were my top system two years ago and graduated a lot of that depth to the majors. However, they filled the void nicely with two more solid drafts, helping make up for lost seasons from Casey Kelly and Rymer Liriano (both of whom missed 2013 due to Tommy John surgery).
Their recent trade for major league reliever Alex Torres also included Jesse Hahn, another power arm to add to the system, but he missed their top 10 behind several pitchers with a better chance to remain starters.
10. Baltimore Orioles
Very top-heavy, but a strong front five, all on the top 100, due in no small part to a string of four straight solid first-round picks since the Matt Hobgood fiasco. (Hobgood, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 draft, has a 5.05 ERA in his career and hasn't made it past Class A.)
Their depth is improving, though it's still behind where it'll need to be to keep the club competitive in the AL East, and more investment in intriguing international amateurs like Olelky Peralta will help bolster the system.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
Also a very top-heavy system, like Baltimore's, with two elite guys at the top and three solid guys after, followed by a lot of reliever/fifth starter depth. They did have some intriguing arms in short-season ball who could push this system's overall value up a lot by next year, especially since none of their top eight prospects are likely to lose eligibility in 2014.
12. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have produced so much homegrown talent over the past five years that it's hard to believe they're still above the median, but with potential superstar Oscar Taveras on top, a half-dozen more prospects who project as regulars or better, and lots of pitching and bench depth, they're poised to keep stocking the major league team for several more years. One system weakness, though, as you might have heard: shortstop.
13. Texas Rangers
Most of the talent here is very young and likely three years away, but there is as much All-Star potential in this system as there is in just about any of the systems after the top five -- just a lot less probability, as guys like Joey Gallo or Lewis Brinson could be elite big leaguers just as easily as they could wash out in Double-A.
14. Philadelphia Phillies
Similar to Texas but with fewer prospects who are potential grade 65 or better players in the majors. I thought the Phillies had one of the best drafts, perhaps the best of anyone, in 2013, landing a few high-ceiling high school kids -- such as shortstop J.P. Crawford -- while mixing in some solid college bats like catcher Andrew Knapp.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
A lot of high-ceiling pitching here, which is probably a good strategy for a team that plays in a hitter's park 1,100 feet above sea level, but light on near-term position players other than shortstop Chris Owings.
One bright spot on the hitting side: Brandon Drury, who looked like a throw-in to the Justin Upton trade, but broke out with a big year for low Class A South Bend and may help salvage a mostly disastrous trade for the D-backs.
16. Cincinnati Reds
Plenty of outfielders and power arms here, light up the middle and possibly light on starting pitching candidates after Robert Stephenson. At worst, they'll put a pretty good bullpen together on the cheap from all of those A-ball starters, a group that includes 2012 supplemental first-round pick Nick Travieso.
17. Cleveland Indians
Danny Salazar reaching the majors was great for the system, but deletes him from the Indians' top 10, and they had several prospects who had disappointing years, none more than former No. 3 overall pick Trevor Bauer, whose stuff wavered and who couldn't throw strikes. Aggressive promotions for Dorssys Paulino and Jose Ramirez hurt their performances, although both are still promising middle infield prospects.
18. Washington Nationals
The Nats' system has a little more depth than it's had in several years, but most of their elite prospects have already graduated, with only Lucas Giolito in the overall top 50. Their list's caliber drops off quickly after six or seven names.
19. Miami Marlins
They keep graduating guys like Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich faster than most other organizations would, which doesn't help their ranking but also is one positive way that the front office has bucked the industry. They don't stash good players in the minors to manipulate service time -- when a kid shows he might be ready, he's up to sink or swim. This will be a big year for some starter prospects in the system who may be on the cusp of a move to the pen.
20. New York Yankees
It seemed like everyone who mattered in this system got hurt in 2013, and of those who didn't most had disappointing years. The good news is every one of the injured prospects should be healthy to start 2014 (except Slade Heathcott, for whom "healthy" is an abstract concept), but it also means the Mason Williamses and Tyler Austins of the system will run out of excuses if they don't hit.
A strong day one draft class in 2013 -- when they had three of the top 33 picks -- helped boost the system.
21. Seattle Mariners
The M's graduated three top prospects to the majors in 2013 in Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, so there's less on the farm now after the two starting pitchers (Taijuan Walker and James Paxton) who are on the cusp of helping the big league team. Their Class A clubs will be the teams to watch if you're looking for prospects.
22. Atlanta Braves
A very top-heavy system, led by first-rounder Lucas Sims and Panamanian catcher Christian Bethancourt, but years of subpar drafts as well as trades to bolster the major league team have thinned the system out. Atlanta is the only team with two undrafted (yet draft-eligible) free agents in its top 10 prospects.
23. Tampa Bay Rays
Years of good trades helped keep the Rays near the top of the list since I started compiling these rankings, but they've been crushed by the graduations of Wil Myers and Chris Archer last year plus several unproductive drafts -- when Kevin Kiermaier and Tim Beckham reached the majors in September, they were the first players drafted and developed by the Rays to suit up for the team since David Price and Matt Moore from the 2007 draft.
The Rays have been hurt by on-field success that gives them lower picks and limits their draft and international bonus pools, but they haven't fared well even within those limits.
24. Toronto Blue Jays
It's tough to trade away three top 100 prospects, as the Jays did last winter, and maintain a strong system, but the Jays compounded that problem by failing to sign their first overall pick (Phil Bickford) for the second time in three years.
The Jays can afford to trade prospects if they're hitting on high draft picks, but they haven't done so often enough other than the selections they ended up dealing.
25. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have a lot of high-floor arms in their system and a couple of intriguing up-the-middle bats, but not quite enough of either to overcome a lack of high-ceiling (potential star) prospects after hard-throwing Kyle Crick. They are in position to use that pitching depth to make a midseason acquisition if they need to this year, which wasn't true of their system going into 2013.
26. Oakland Athletics
The A's have one of the youngest top 10s of any team in the majors, but aside from budding superstar Addison Russell, most of their talent is far away and still very uncertain.
27. Chicago White Sox
The ranking doesn't reflect it yet, but this system is headed in the right direction thanks to better drafts, including a few surprises from later-round picks. I did not include Cuban defector Jose Abreu in any rankings, as he's 27 years old, but the Sox would be higher if he counted in their favor.
28. Detroit Tigers
This system boils down to third baseman Nick Castellanos and a lot of power arms who seem like probable relievers, as well as some slick defensive middle infielders, any of whom could establish himself as a valuable asset with a year of offensive production. I'd like the system more had the Doug Fister trade yielded a top-50 prospect, as you'd expect given Fister's performance the past two years.
29. Los Angeles Angels
An awful system after years of lost first-round picks and trades to bulk up the major league team, it improved marginally in 2013 with some new arms, but regression from most of the top position player prospects in the system was a huge disappointment.
30. Milwaukee Brewers
There may not be a player in this system who projects as an above-average player in the majors; the best bets are all teenagers who played in low Class A or below in 2013, and none is close to a lock to get there.
The system lacks ceiling and it lacks depth beyond reliever candidates and likely fourth outfielders, with nothing in the middle of the diamond and no starting pitching of note.
Derek Jeter, Yankees must face facts.
Early picks for every division.
Two small-market clubs going all-in.
Five strangest moves of winter.
Predicting 2014 disappointments.
Rumors.
Simply put, what Derek Jeter will try to do in 2014 -- be a regular shortstop for a playoff team in the summer in which he will turn 40 years old -- is unprecedented. No one has ever done it before.
The closest was Luis Aparicio, the Hall of Fame shortstop. He turned 39 in April 1973 and that year, he played 132 games for the Boston Red Sox, hitting .271 with 18 extra-base hits in 561 plate appearances. The Red Sox went 89-73, but the next season, Mario Guerrero was their shortstop and Aparicio was cut, which gives you some insight into how he played.
"Luis was at the end of the line, as much offense as defense," says Peter Gammons, who covered the Red Sox then for the Boston Globe. "The next spring Darrell Johnson was the manager and he released Aparicio and Orlando Cepeda the same day in spring training."
Jeter's ankle trouble limited him to just 17 games and 73 plate appearances last season. The fact that Jeter posted a .542 OPS is really irrelevant, because it was such a small sample size, and Jeter was never fully healed and able to do the sort of conditioning and preparation he usually does, after spending a lot of last offseason in a walking boot.
The fact is that nobody really knows, as of now, what Jeter could be next summer -- not the doctors who have worked with him, not Manager Joe Girardi, not Jeter. And the future Hall of Famer and the Yankees should go into this year with eyes wide open to all possibilities.
There should be regular conversations between Jeter and the staff about how he's playing, about what's working and what's not working, because the Yankees have too much at stake this year, after failing to make the playoffs last season and spending almost half a billion dollars to upgrade the roster, to simply commit the whole season to a player surrounded by so many question marks at such a key position.
The Yankees need to be open-minded. They should be prepared to give Jeter a good chunk of time to re-establish himself, given how Jeter performed less than two years ago. In 2012, Jeter led the majors with 216 hits, including 47 extra-base hits and a .791 OPS.
Jeter needs to be open-minded, as well. He has been a superlative player for almost two decades and because of that, he could safely assume that he will be in the lineup each day, as the Yankees' best available option at shortstop. But there will be a day when Jeter will not be the best option, and the Yankees did not assume that Jeter would be OK this year, which is why they signed a safety net in Brendan Ryan, who is regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the big leagues.
Jim Thome told me a few years ago that he reached a turning point in his career when he embraced his physical limitations. He realized that if he took days off, he was more effective when he played. Thome was once one of baseball's best grinders, someone who played every day, but because of back trouble, it became more difficult for him to be ready to play in day games after night games, or every day for a week.
So he and his managers assessed the forthcoming schedule and picked out days when rest made sense, when Thome was better served by having a day off, when the team was better served, in the big picture, by having Thome rest.
It's possible that Jeter will come back and will be able to play daily, as he did in 2012, when he played 159 games, with 135 appearances shortstop and 25 at DH. It's also possible that on given days -- such as when Masahiro Tanaka pitches and generates grounders with his splitter -- that the Yankees would be better served by having Ryan at shortstop. Depending on how Jeter plays, there could be days when the Yankees' best lineup will be having Ryan at shortstop, Carlos Beltran at DH and an outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, with Jeter sitting out.
If Jeter bounces back and hits like he did in 2012, then he should be a part of the top of the Yankees' lineup. Two years ago, Jeter had a .364 on-base percentage hitting leadoff and New York ranked third in OBP for leadoff hitters among the 30 teams. Ellsbury, one of the game's elite leadoff hitters and a major stolen base threat, should hit in the No. 1 spot at the start of the year and Jeter should hit No. 2, with Beltran likely sliding in at No. 3.
But if Jeter doesn't hit early in the season and Gardner gets on base regularly, then Girardi and Jeter should be prepared for change; if Jeter doesn't hit early, the manager and the captain should be open to the possibility that the Yankees could be better with Ellsbury and Gardner at the top of the order.
Girardi has always had great affection and respect for Jeter; having watched the two of them since 1998, I think Girardi almost thinks of Jeter as something close to a younger brother. If Girardi ever moved Jeter to a lower spot in the lineup, it should never be construed as a personal slight, or an insult; it would be because Girardi put together the lineup that he believed gave the Yankees their best chance to win, which he owes to the Yankees, to the other players, to Jeter.
It's not unusual for an aged star to shift to a different part of the order. Paul O'Neill sometimes hit sixth or seventh in 2001, his last season. Mickey Mantle actually hit in the No. 2 spot in eight games in his last season of 1968. Joe DiMaggio hit in the No. 5 spot in handful of games in his last season. Thome started in five different parts of the order in 2011.
It happens.
Maybe it won't happen to Jeter this year, maybe it will. No matter what happens, Jeter will be forever remembered as an all-time great player, one of the best of his generation, and there's no sense in any of them -- Girardi, Jeter, General Manager Brian Cashman -- feeling uncomfortable about talking about changes that are inevitable, whether it's this year or the next or the year after that.
Around the league
• With Matt Garza's deal with the Brewers now official, all eyes in the industry have turned to Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, the two most prominent starting pitchers available, given their ages and 2013 performances. Both are attached to draft-pick compensation, of course.
Sam Mellinger speculates on what the Garza signing might mean for the Royals, who have kept the back porch light on for Santana in case he decides he's OK with a team-friendly deal.
• Walt Jocketty thinks Billy Hamilton is ready. From John Fay's story:
"I don't feel pressure … [Hamilton said.] "This is how it usually is before a season. I know what my job is. It's to come in and spot up (Shin-Soo) Choo. It's going to be tough to do what he did. Coming into the season, I want to play my game."((
The Reds don't expect Hamilton's on-base percentage to approach Choo's. Choo got on base at a .423 clip -- second in the National League to Joey Votto. Hamilton hit .256 with a .308 on-base at Louisville.((
But Hamilton gives the Reds speed. The Reds think he will be an upgrade in center, even though Hamilton is new to the position. He also gives the Reds a rare base-stealing threat. He stole 13 bases in 14 attempts after his call-up last year. He set an all-time record for the minor leagues with 155 steals in 2012.
But it's a big question whether Hamilton's bat is ready. If it is, new manager Bryan Price knows what kind of impact Hamilton can have.
"I saw what Ichiro (Suzuki) did for the 2001 Seattle Mariners," Price said. "We're not comparing the two. But the speed element -- Ichiro wasn't going to hit a lot of home runs -- but he put a lot of balls in play, beat out a lot of ground balls. Almost anything to the left side was going to be a hit unless the third baseman cut it off.
"He wreaked havoc. Pitchers had to rush to the plate. They paid a lot of attention to him. He got a lot of fastballs for guys hitting behind him. He got a lot of hitters in good counts to hit. He created a lot of scoring opportunities. I understand the importance of it."
It's crucial for the Reds' lineup that Hamilton is an effective player, and given his incredible prowess on the bases, it may not be necessary for Hamilton to produce within the standard models for leadoff hitters. If Hamilton has a .300 on-base percentage, for example -- and that may be what the Reds could reasonably expect in Hamilton's first year in the big leagues -- he could still score a whole lot of runs because his singles and walks tend to lead to him standing on second or third base shortly thereafter.
Think of Hamilton like a young starting pitcher who has one great tool -- an overpowering fastball -- but who lacks a great second or third pitch. It's possible that the pitcher will get hammered, and it's also possible he can dominate some lineups.
What will be especially important, in Hamilton's first months as a regular, is that the other parts of the Reds' lineup are functional. If Hamilton struggles, the Reds cannot afford to have dead spots in the seventh and eighth holes in their batting order. Last year, Cincinnati's No. 7 hitters ranked 22nd in OPS, and their No. 8 hitters were 24th.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Orioles have remained in contact with the representatives for some starting pitchers. A lot of teams are bottom-feeding right now, trolling around and waiting for the right deal -- for the prices to drop and for the players' desperation to rise.
2. Ryan Flaherty is going to spring training trying to win the Orioles' second base job.
3. Michael Young tells Dylan Hernandez he will either play for the Dodgers or retire, in all likelihood. The Dodgers are his first choice, writes J.P. Hoornstra.
4. The White Sox are preparing for the No. 3 pick in the draft, writes Colleen Kane.
NL East
• Darin Ruf should be playing right field for the Phillies instead of Marlon Byrd, writes Bob Brookover.
• Curtis Granderson is ready to bring his leadership skills to the Mets, writes Kevin Kernan.
• Ryan Doumit may or may not get some time at catcher.
NL West
• The curveball pushed Russell Wilson to football, writes Troy Renck.
AL East
• The National Post breaks down all of the rotations in the AL East.
• Bryce Brentz is going to keep plugging away.
AL Central
• Joba Chamberlain has dropped some weight.
• Michael Bourn says the 2014 Indians will contend.
It's worth repeating: Cleveland's offense, which was tied for fifth in runs in 2013, has a chance to be markedly better this season, given the struggles of Bourn, Asdrubal Cabrera and Nick Swisher last season.
• Don Cooper sees a bright future in Chicago.
• Byron Buxton is a natural as a father, too, writes Mike Berardino.
AL West
• The Astros' new pitching coach has a wealth of experience, writes Evan Drellich.
• Randy Harvey wonders if the Astros' pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka was all for show.
• The Tanaka contract could motivate Yu Darvish, writes Jeff Wilson.
• Shin-Soo Choo says he'll be better against lefties. As mentioned here before, some evaluators believe his regression against lefties is rooted in the moment that Jonathan Sanchez broke his thumb with a pitch in 2011.
• Robinson Cano is embracing new opportunities, writes Bob Dutton.
The closest was Luis Aparicio, the Hall of Fame shortstop. He turned 39 in April 1973 and that year, he played 132 games for the Boston Red Sox, hitting .271 with 18 extra-base hits in 561 plate appearances. The Red Sox went 89-73, but the next season, Mario Guerrero was their shortstop and Aparicio was cut, which gives you some insight into how he played.
"Luis was at the end of the line, as much offense as defense," says Peter Gammons, who covered the Red Sox then for the Boston Globe. "The next spring Darrell Johnson was the manager and he released Aparicio and Orlando Cepeda the same day in spring training."
Jeter's ankle trouble limited him to just 17 games and 73 plate appearances last season. The fact that Jeter posted a .542 OPS is really irrelevant, because it was such a small sample size, and Jeter was never fully healed and able to do the sort of conditioning and preparation he usually does, after spending a lot of last offseason in a walking boot.
The fact is that nobody really knows, as of now, what Jeter could be next summer -- not the doctors who have worked with him, not Manager Joe Girardi, not Jeter. And the future Hall of Famer and the Yankees should go into this year with eyes wide open to all possibilities.
There should be regular conversations between Jeter and the staff about how he's playing, about what's working and what's not working, because the Yankees have too much at stake this year, after failing to make the playoffs last season and spending almost half a billion dollars to upgrade the roster, to simply commit the whole season to a player surrounded by so many question marks at such a key position.
The Yankees need to be open-minded. They should be prepared to give Jeter a good chunk of time to re-establish himself, given how Jeter performed less than two years ago. In 2012, Jeter led the majors with 216 hits, including 47 extra-base hits and a .791 OPS.
Jeter needs to be open-minded, as well. He has been a superlative player for almost two decades and because of that, he could safely assume that he will be in the lineup each day, as the Yankees' best available option at shortstop. But there will be a day when Jeter will not be the best option, and the Yankees did not assume that Jeter would be OK this year, which is why they signed a safety net in Brendan Ryan, who is regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in the big leagues.
Jim Thome told me a few years ago that he reached a turning point in his career when he embraced his physical limitations. He realized that if he took days off, he was more effective when he played. Thome was once one of baseball's best grinders, someone who played every day, but because of back trouble, it became more difficult for him to be ready to play in day games after night games, or every day for a week.
So he and his managers assessed the forthcoming schedule and picked out days when rest made sense, when Thome was better served by having a day off, when the team was better served, in the big picture, by having Thome rest.
It's possible that Jeter will come back and will be able to play daily, as he did in 2012, when he played 159 games, with 135 appearances shortstop and 25 at DH. It's also possible that on given days -- such as when Masahiro Tanaka pitches and generates grounders with his splitter -- that the Yankees would be better served by having Ryan at shortstop. Depending on how Jeter plays, there could be days when the Yankees' best lineup will be having Ryan at shortstop, Carlos Beltran at DH and an outfield of Alfonso Soriano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, with Jeter sitting out.
If Jeter bounces back and hits like he did in 2012, then he should be a part of the top of the Yankees' lineup. Two years ago, Jeter had a .364 on-base percentage hitting leadoff and New York ranked third in OBP for leadoff hitters among the 30 teams. Ellsbury, one of the game's elite leadoff hitters and a major stolen base threat, should hit in the No. 1 spot at the start of the year and Jeter should hit No. 2, with Beltran likely sliding in at No. 3.
But if Jeter doesn't hit early in the season and Gardner gets on base regularly, then Girardi and Jeter should be prepared for change; if Jeter doesn't hit early, the manager and the captain should be open to the possibility that the Yankees could be better with Ellsbury and Gardner at the top of the order.
Girardi has always had great affection and respect for Jeter; having watched the two of them since 1998, I think Girardi almost thinks of Jeter as something close to a younger brother. If Girardi ever moved Jeter to a lower spot in the lineup, it should never be construed as a personal slight, or an insult; it would be because Girardi put together the lineup that he believed gave the Yankees their best chance to win, which he owes to the Yankees, to the other players, to Jeter.
It's not unusual for an aged star to shift to a different part of the order. Paul O'Neill sometimes hit sixth or seventh in 2001, his last season. Mickey Mantle actually hit in the No. 2 spot in eight games in his last season of 1968. Joe DiMaggio hit in the No. 5 spot in handful of games in his last season. Thome started in five different parts of the order in 2011.
It happens.
Maybe it won't happen to Jeter this year, maybe it will. No matter what happens, Jeter will be forever remembered as an all-time great player, one of the best of his generation, and there's no sense in any of them -- Girardi, Jeter, General Manager Brian Cashman -- feeling uncomfortable about talking about changes that are inevitable, whether it's this year or the next or the year after that.
Around the league
• With Matt Garza's deal with the Brewers now official, all eyes in the industry have turned to Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, the two most prominent starting pitchers available, given their ages and 2013 performances. Both are attached to draft-pick compensation, of course.
Sam Mellinger speculates on what the Garza signing might mean for the Royals, who have kept the back porch light on for Santana in case he decides he's OK with a team-friendly deal.
• Walt Jocketty thinks Billy Hamilton is ready. From John Fay's story:
"I don't feel pressure … [Hamilton said.] "This is how it usually is before a season. I know what my job is. It's to come in and spot up (Shin-Soo) Choo. It's going to be tough to do what he did. Coming into the season, I want to play my game."((
The Reds don't expect Hamilton's on-base percentage to approach Choo's. Choo got on base at a .423 clip -- second in the National League to Joey Votto. Hamilton hit .256 with a .308 on-base at Louisville.((
But Hamilton gives the Reds speed. The Reds think he will be an upgrade in center, even though Hamilton is new to the position. He also gives the Reds a rare base-stealing threat. He stole 13 bases in 14 attempts after his call-up last year. He set an all-time record for the minor leagues with 155 steals in 2012.
But it's a big question whether Hamilton's bat is ready. If it is, new manager Bryan Price knows what kind of impact Hamilton can have.
"I saw what Ichiro (Suzuki) did for the 2001 Seattle Mariners," Price said. "We're not comparing the two. But the speed element -- Ichiro wasn't going to hit a lot of home runs -- but he put a lot of balls in play, beat out a lot of ground balls. Almost anything to the left side was going to be a hit unless the third baseman cut it off.
"He wreaked havoc. Pitchers had to rush to the plate. They paid a lot of attention to him. He got a lot of fastballs for guys hitting behind him. He got a lot of hitters in good counts to hit. He created a lot of scoring opportunities. I understand the importance of it."
It's crucial for the Reds' lineup that Hamilton is an effective player, and given his incredible prowess on the bases, it may not be necessary for Hamilton to produce within the standard models for leadoff hitters. If Hamilton has a .300 on-base percentage, for example -- and that may be what the Reds could reasonably expect in Hamilton's first year in the big leagues -- he could still score a whole lot of runs because his singles and walks tend to lead to him standing on second or third base shortly thereafter.
Think of Hamilton like a young starting pitcher who has one great tool -- an overpowering fastball -- but who lacks a great second or third pitch. It's possible that the pitcher will get hammered, and it's also possible he can dominate some lineups.
What will be especially important, in Hamilton's first months as a regular, is that the other parts of the Reds' lineup are functional. If Hamilton struggles, the Reds cannot afford to have dead spots in the seventh and eighth holes in their batting order. Last year, Cincinnati's No. 7 hitters ranked 22nd in OPS, and their No. 8 hitters were 24th.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Orioles have remained in contact with the representatives for some starting pitchers. A lot of teams are bottom-feeding right now, trolling around and waiting for the right deal -- for the prices to drop and for the players' desperation to rise.
2. Ryan Flaherty is going to spring training trying to win the Orioles' second base job.
3. Michael Young tells Dylan Hernandez he will either play for the Dodgers or retire, in all likelihood. The Dodgers are his first choice, writes J.P. Hoornstra.
4. The White Sox are preparing for the No. 3 pick in the draft, writes Colleen Kane.
NL East
• Darin Ruf should be playing right field for the Phillies instead of Marlon Byrd, writes Bob Brookover.
• Curtis Granderson is ready to bring his leadership skills to the Mets, writes Kevin Kernan.
• Ryan Doumit may or may not get some time at catcher.
NL West
• The curveball pushed Russell Wilson to football, writes Troy Renck.
AL East
• The National Post breaks down all of the rotations in the AL East.
• Bryce Brentz is going to keep plugging away.
AL Central
• Joba Chamberlain has dropped some weight.
• Michael Bourn says the 2014 Indians will contend.
It's worth repeating: Cleveland's offense, which was tied for fifth in runs in 2013, has a chance to be markedly better this season, given the struggles of Bourn, Asdrubal Cabrera and Nick Swisher last season.
• Don Cooper sees a bright future in Chicago.
• Byron Buxton is a natural as a father, too, writes Mike Berardino.
AL West
• The Astros' new pitching coach has a wealth of experience, writes Evan Drellich.
• Randy Harvey wonders if the Astros' pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka was all for show.
• The Tanaka contract could motivate Yu Darvish, writes Jeff Wilson.
• Shin-Soo Choo says he'll be better against lefties. As mentioned here before, some evaluators believe his regression against lefties is rooted in the moment that Jonathan Sanchez broke his thumb with a pitch in 2011.
• Robinson Cano is embracing new opportunities, writes Bob Dutton.
Early picks for every division.
There are still some front-line free agents who will sign before the start of the regular season, and the inevitable spring training injuries to come, so it's too early to lock in predictions for 2014.
But right now, this is what I'm looking at:
Division winners for the AL -- Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics
Wild-card teams -- Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
Division winners for the NL -- Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild-card teams -- Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
With David Price still in Tampa Bay, the Rays could have an extraordinary rotation. The Tigers may lack thump in the middle of their lineup, but they should be significantly better defensively with more speed and Joe Nathan will stabilize their bullpen. Oakland loses Bartolo Colon, but the Athletics will have Sonny Gray at the outset of the season with what could be an overpowering bullpen. Xander Bogaerts should help the Red Sox get back to the playoffs.
Washington added Doug Fister to an already strong rotation, and I bet the Nationals will be fueled by what they didn’t accomplish last year. Atlanta has growing money concerns with its young core, but has enough depth to get back to the playoffs. St. Louis looks capable of running away with the NL Central if its young pitching continues to manifest. Though the Dodgers have lineup holes, their pitching staff -- led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke -- could be extraordinary.
The two teams I’m most torn about, among those picked for the postseason here, are the Padres and Yankees.
I wrote here the other day about the Padres' collection of front-line pitching, including the expected return of Cory Luebke and deals for Joaquin Benoit, Alex Torres and Josh Johnson. The big question about San Diego will be whether its lineup will improve, given that it ranked 24th in runs scored last season.
It's worth noting that the Padres actually scored just 31 fewer runs than the Dodgers last season, in a year in which Everth Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal were suspended, Yonder Alonso was limited to 92 games because of injury and Cameron Maybin played in only 14 games. Only one member of the Padres, Will Venable, played more than 146 games.
San Diego was basically luckless in 2013 and there's no guarantee that won't happen again. But the Padres have some depth, with the potential to post productive lineups against right-handers and left-handers, because of acute platoon numbers.
• Venable -- .807 OPS versus right-handers
• Chris Denorfia -- .799 OPS versus left-handers
• Carlos Quentin -- 1.057 OPS versus left-handers
• Kyle Blanks -- .829 OPS versus left-handers
• Jedd Gyorko -- .829 OPS versus left-handers
• Grandal -- .752 OPS versus left-handers
• Seth Smith -- .748 OPS versus right-handers
[+] Enlarge
Andy Hayt/Getty Images
Padres third baseman Chase Headley is expected to bounce back in 2014.
Chase Headley should be better, and the Padres can reasonably expect that Cabrera and Alonso are going to play in a lot more games. They’re a really interesting team -- and time will tell whether they can separate themselves from a pack of wild-card contenders that may include Pittsburgh, which must overcome the loss of A.J. Burnett; Cincinnati, which has had a quiet winter; the Diamondbacks, who may still add a needed starting pitcher before the start of the regular season; the Giants, who could be helped by the addition of Tim Hudson and a possible comeback season from a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval.
About the Yankees: Yes, their infield is full of question marks -- seemingly the only sure thing is that the quartet you see on Opening Day will not be the same in September -- and they have pitching questions. But when assessing their 2014 playoff chances, we should remember that what they have is tremendous potential for difference-making in-season upgrades now that they’ve moved past the $189 million threshold.
No longer will they be counting nickels and dimes. New York will be able to take on money, which is a unique power in the middle of a season.
The Yankees' farm system might be something of a mess, and in a competitive bidding situation for the likes of Price that may well be pivotal. But some teams will get to July and August and start looking to dump money off their 2014 books, and the Yankees will be more willing and able to absorb that cost than other teams -- much in the same way that the Rangers took on Prince Fielder and the money owed to him. That means the Yankees could be in position to take on the onerous contracts of good players who are marketed.
For example: Someone like Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies' shortstop, who is owed $134 million for the next seven seasons.
Let's pause a moment to make this absolutely clear: This is all speculation at this point. There is no indication that Colorado is dangling Tulowitzki; rather, they've made it known they intend to keep him.
But if the Rockies struggled early and began looking for opportunities to unburden themselves of the 29-year-old's contract, this is the type of player the Yankees would be uniquely positioned to target. A limited number of teams would be willing to take on Tulowitzki's deal.
Others who could be made available, depending on how their respective teams are faring and whether they might be looking to move dollars in midseason:
• Billy Butler -- He’s owed $8 million for this season and $12 million for next season at a time when fewer teams are willing to anoint (and pay for) a full-time DH. He’s not really a fit for the Yankees, though, because they're already loaded with DH candidates.
• Rickie Weeks -- Owed $11 million for 2014 in the last season of his deal before reaching free agency.
• Jimmy Rollins -- Owed $11 million for 2014 and has a very makeable $11 million vesting option for 2015.
• Cliff Lee -- Will make $62.5 million in 2014 and 2015, including a $12.5 million buyout on a 2016 option.
• Cole Hamels -- In second year of a seven-year, $147 million deal.
• Josh Willingham -- Will make $7 million this year in the last season before free agency.
• Michael Cuddyer -- Is set to make $10.5 million this season before free agency.
• Yovani Gallardo -- Teams were concerned by his 2013 performance, and he'll make $11.2 million this year, with a $13 million team option for next season.
• Jim Johnson -- Oakland is unafraid of making major bullpen changes in a pennant race, and if the Yankees are struggling to fill the closer's role these two teams could be a match, depending on the prospect.
• Carlos Gonzalez -- Owed $63.5 million for the next four seasons. He's probably a candidate for more of a prospect-driven deal than a salary dump.
• Matt Kemp -- Owed $128 million for the next six seasons.
• Carl Crawford -- Given his struggles in Boston, it would seem unlikely the Yankees would consider him. He'll make $82 million over the next four seasons.
• Andre Ethier -- Owed $71.5 million for the rest of his current deal.
• Matt Wieters -- The Orioles dangled him in the trade market last winter, and if Baltimore flounders early, it would make sense for them to take offers again. But like Gonzalez, he'd be a candidate for a prospect-driven deal.
• Mark Buehrle -- He had a 4.15 ERA last season in his 13th consecutive season of more than 200 innings, so he is a plow horse -- and being paid like a racehorse. Buerhle will make $37 million for 2014 and 2015, and rival executives say the Blue Jays made him available in the past year. If he's throwing effectively, this is the perfect salary-dump candidate for a prospect-starved organization as Toronto looks to save as much money as possible.
• Jose Reyes -- Owed $86 million for the next four seasons including a buyout of his 2018 option. He is 30 years old, and if the Blue Jays were willing to eat some of his contract, he could be interesting for a team that may soon need a shortstop -- such as the Yankees.
The Royals might have their best team in the past two decades, and may well reach the postseason; if I don't pick the Yankees, I'll probably go with the Royals because of their dominant defense and bullpen. The Indians' offense should be better. The Angels' rotation should be improved, and they have the best player in the sport. The Orioles' waning chances seem to be predicated on whether they get a couple of unexpected pitching performances to complement their solid everyday lineup.
For the readers: What would your picks be?
Around the league
• Within this piece, there is word that the Phillies have hired a statistical analyst.
• Justin Masterson and the Indians have shelved talks about a multiyear deal.
• Jerry Remy is returning to broadcasting. Remy’s return looks like the wrong move.
• David Ortiz wants a new contract, but the Red Sox should stick to the plan, writes Gerry Callahan.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Reds want to keep Homer Bailey.
2. The Brewers signed Pete Orr.
NL East
• Craig Kimbrel was among those attending the Braves’ early camp.
• Brandon Beachy is hoping his frustration is in the past, as Mark Bowman writes.
• Drew Storen wants to keep rolling.
• Intensity will be Matt Williams' calling card, writes Mike Harris.
• The Phillies' rotation worries Ryne Sandberg.
NL Central
• A Cardinals prospect is looking forward to spring training.
NL West
• Ubaldo Jimenez is still available, writes Troy Renck, who doesn’t think there could be a match with the Rockies.
AL Central
• Victor Martinez wants to be back for 2015.
• Yordano Ventura was named one of the top minor leaguers.
AL West
• The Rangers could have another move, writes Gerry Fraley.
• Corey Hart believes his knees have improved, writes Bob Dutton.
From the story:
"I've ramped up everything," he said Sunday when the Mariners concluded their two-day FanFest at Safeco Field. "I’ve been running bases and doing baseball stuff. I haven’t gotten on the field yet to do fly balls, but I’ve been doing simulated ground balls to work on my footwork and agility. It’s been progressing. I’ve been able to do everything. It’s been nice."
There might be no aspect of the Mariners’ upcoming spring camp that will be more closely watched or more crucial to their success than Hart’s ability to handle the daily grind on his knees after missing all of last season.
"Does he hit the ground running?" general manager Jack Zduriencik said. "We’ll have to find out. He’s certainly talented. He could be a really good piece for us."
I still think it makes sense for either the Mariners or the Rangers to sign Nelson Cruz.
But right now, this is what I'm looking at:
Division winners for the AL -- Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics
Wild-card teams -- Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
Division winners for the NL -- Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild-card teams -- Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres
With David Price still in Tampa Bay, the Rays could have an extraordinary rotation. The Tigers may lack thump in the middle of their lineup, but they should be significantly better defensively with more speed and Joe Nathan will stabilize their bullpen. Oakland loses Bartolo Colon, but the Athletics will have Sonny Gray at the outset of the season with what could be an overpowering bullpen. Xander Bogaerts should help the Red Sox get back to the playoffs.
Washington added Doug Fister to an already strong rotation, and I bet the Nationals will be fueled by what they didn’t accomplish last year. Atlanta has growing money concerns with its young core, but has enough depth to get back to the playoffs. St. Louis looks capable of running away with the NL Central if its young pitching continues to manifest. Though the Dodgers have lineup holes, their pitching staff -- led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke -- could be extraordinary.
The two teams I’m most torn about, among those picked for the postseason here, are the Padres and Yankees.
I wrote here the other day about the Padres' collection of front-line pitching, including the expected return of Cory Luebke and deals for Joaquin Benoit, Alex Torres and Josh Johnson. The big question about San Diego will be whether its lineup will improve, given that it ranked 24th in runs scored last season.
It's worth noting that the Padres actually scored just 31 fewer runs than the Dodgers last season, in a year in which Everth Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal were suspended, Yonder Alonso was limited to 92 games because of injury and Cameron Maybin played in only 14 games. Only one member of the Padres, Will Venable, played more than 146 games.
San Diego was basically luckless in 2013 and there's no guarantee that won't happen again. But the Padres have some depth, with the potential to post productive lineups against right-handers and left-handers, because of acute platoon numbers.
• Venable -- .807 OPS versus right-handers
• Chris Denorfia -- .799 OPS versus left-handers
• Carlos Quentin -- 1.057 OPS versus left-handers
• Kyle Blanks -- .829 OPS versus left-handers
• Jedd Gyorko -- .829 OPS versus left-handers
• Grandal -- .752 OPS versus left-handers
• Seth Smith -- .748 OPS versus right-handers
[+] Enlarge
Andy Hayt/Getty Images
Padres third baseman Chase Headley is expected to bounce back in 2014.
Chase Headley should be better, and the Padres can reasonably expect that Cabrera and Alonso are going to play in a lot more games. They’re a really interesting team -- and time will tell whether they can separate themselves from a pack of wild-card contenders that may include Pittsburgh, which must overcome the loss of A.J. Burnett; Cincinnati, which has had a quiet winter; the Diamondbacks, who may still add a needed starting pitcher before the start of the regular season; the Giants, who could be helped by the addition of Tim Hudson and a possible comeback season from a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval.
About the Yankees: Yes, their infield is full of question marks -- seemingly the only sure thing is that the quartet you see on Opening Day will not be the same in September -- and they have pitching questions. But when assessing their 2014 playoff chances, we should remember that what they have is tremendous potential for difference-making in-season upgrades now that they’ve moved past the $189 million threshold.
No longer will they be counting nickels and dimes. New York will be able to take on money, which is a unique power in the middle of a season.
The Yankees' farm system might be something of a mess, and in a competitive bidding situation for the likes of Price that may well be pivotal. But some teams will get to July and August and start looking to dump money off their 2014 books, and the Yankees will be more willing and able to absorb that cost than other teams -- much in the same way that the Rangers took on Prince Fielder and the money owed to him. That means the Yankees could be in position to take on the onerous contracts of good players who are marketed.
For example: Someone like Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies' shortstop, who is owed $134 million for the next seven seasons.
Let's pause a moment to make this absolutely clear: This is all speculation at this point. There is no indication that Colorado is dangling Tulowitzki; rather, they've made it known they intend to keep him.
But if the Rockies struggled early and began looking for opportunities to unburden themselves of the 29-year-old's contract, this is the type of player the Yankees would be uniquely positioned to target. A limited number of teams would be willing to take on Tulowitzki's deal.
Others who could be made available, depending on how their respective teams are faring and whether they might be looking to move dollars in midseason:
• Billy Butler -- He’s owed $8 million for this season and $12 million for next season at a time when fewer teams are willing to anoint (and pay for) a full-time DH. He’s not really a fit for the Yankees, though, because they're already loaded with DH candidates.
• Rickie Weeks -- Owed $11 million for 2014 in the last season of his deal before reaching free agency.
• Jimmy Rollins -- Owed $11 million for 2014 and has a very makeable $11 million vesting option for 2015.
• Cliff Lee -- Will make $62.5 million in 2014 and 2015, including a $12.5 million buyout on a 2016 option.
• Cole Hamels -- In second year of a seven-year, $147 million deal.
• Josh Willingham -- Will make $7 million this year in the last season before free agency.
• Michael Cuddyer -- Is set to make $10.5 million this season before free agency.
• Yovani Gallardo -- Teams were concerned by his 2013 performance, and he'll make $11.2 million this year, with a $13 million team option for next season.
• Jim Johnson -- Oakland is unafraid of making major bullpen changes in a pennant race, and if the Yankees are struggling to fill the closer's role these two teams could be a match, depending on the prospect.
• Carlos Gonzalez -- Owed $63.5 million for the next four seasons. He's probably a candidate for more of a prospect-driven deal than a salary dump.
• Matt Kemp -- Owed $128 million for the next six seasons.
• Carl Crawford -- Given his struggles in Boston, it would seem unlikely the Yankees would consider him. He'll make $82 million over the next four seasons.
• Andre Ethier -- Owed $71.5 million for the rest of his current deal.
• Matt Wieters -- The Orioles dangled him in the trade market last winter, and if Baltimore flounders early, it would make sense for them to take offers again. But like Gonzalez, he'd be a candidate for a prospect-driven deal.
• Mark Buehrle -- He had a 4.15 ERA last season in his 13th consecutive season of more than 200 innings, so he is a plow horse -- and being paid like a racehorse. Buerhle will make $37 million for 2014 and 2015, and rival executives say the Blue Jays made him available in the past year. If he's throwing effectively, this is the perfect salary-dump candidate for a prospect-starved organization as Toronto looks to save as much money as possible.
• Jose Reyes -- Owed $86 million for the next four seasons including a buyout of his 2018 option. He is 30 years old, and if the Blue Jays were willing to eat some of his contract, he could be interesting for a team that may soon need a shortstop -- such as the Yankees.
The Royals might have their best team in the past two decades, and may well reach the postseason; if I don't pick the Yankees, I'll probably go with the Royals because of their dominant defense and bullpen. The Indians' offense should be better. The Angels' rotation should be improved, and they have the best player in the sport. The Orioles' waning chances seem to be predicated on whether they get a couple of unexpected pitching performances to complement their solid everyday lineup.
For the readers: What would your picks be?
Around the league
• Within this piece, there is word that the Phillies have hired a statistical analyst.
• Justin Masterson and the Indians have shelved talks about a multiyear deal.
• Jerry Remy is returning to broadcasting. Remy’s return looks like the wrong move.
• David Ortiz wants a new contract, but the Red Sox should stick to the plan, writes Gerry Callahan.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Reds want to keep Homer Bailey.
2. The Brewers signed Pete Orr.
NL East
• Craig Kimbrel was among those attending the Braves’ early camp.
• Brandon Beachy is hoping his frustration is in the past, as Mark Bowman writes.
• Drew Storen wants to keep rolling.
• Intensity will be Matt Williams' calling card, writes Mike Harris.
• The Phillies' rotation worries Ryne Sandberg.
NL Central
• A Cardinals prospect is looking forward to spring training.
NL West
• Ubaldo Jimenez is still available, writes Troy Renck, who doesn’t think there could be a match with the Rockies.
AL Central
• Victor Martinez wants to be back for 2015.
• Yordano Ventura was named one of the top minor leaguers.
AL West
• The Rangers could have another move, writes Gerry Fraley.
• Corey Hart believes his knees have improved, writes Bob Dutton.
From the story:
"I've ramped up everything," he said Sunday when the Mariners concluded their two-day FanFest at Safeco Field. "I’ve been running bases and doing baseball stuff. I haven’t gotten on the field yet to do fly balls, but I’ve been doing simulated ground balls to work on my footwork and agility. It’s been progressing. I’ve been able to do everything. It’s been nice."
There might be no aspect of the Mariners’ upcoming spring camp that will be more closely watched or more crucial to their success than Hart’s ability to handle the daily grind on his knees after missing all of last season.
"Does he hit the ground running?" general manager Jack Zduriencik said. "We’ll have to find out. He’s certainly talented. He could be a really good piece for us."
I still think it makes sense for either the Mariners or the Rangers to sign Nelson Cruz.
Two small-market clubs going all-in.
When the New York Yankees really go for it, when they unleash their financial might in an effort to protect their brand and win a championship, that means firing almost a half-billion dollars at the best and most expensive players.
Two other teams have unleashed the full fury of their resources this winter, although you might've missed it. The Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres have pulled out all stops, and if you're trying to imagine what that looks like, well, just think of drag-racing Mini Coopers.
That is not said to demean either franchise. Actually, it's noted with great admiration. This is a baseball version of "The Charge of the Light Brigade," and the Padres and Rays should be respected for it, for doing all that they can to compete against the moneyed monsters within their respective divisions.
The Rays agreed to terms with Grant Balfour on Thursday, in a winter in which they spent dollars to sign James Loney and David DeJesus, their own free agents. To put the numbers in context: Masahiro Tanaka will make $22 million-plus per season in his seven-year deal with the Yankees, and Loney's $21 million, three-year deal represents the Rays' largest investment in a free agent ... ever. Balfour represents the third-largest investment. Unless some great offer suddenly emerges for David Price, it appears the Rays will keep the Cy Young left-hander, in spite of his $14 million salary, and go into the 2014 season with a franchise-record $74 million payroll, or about 18-20 percent higher than their 2013 budget.
The Padres have quietly made a similar move, a push that really began a couple of years ago when the team's new ownership approved deals for Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, and then took on Ian Kennedy last summer in the midst of his arbitration years. This winter, the Padres committed $8 million to Josh Johnson, signed Joaquin Benoit to a two-year, $15.5 million deal, traded for Seth Smith to address a specific roster need, and traded for left-hander Alex Torres in a seven-player deal with the Rays on Wednesday.
And just as the Rays seem to be leaning toward keeping Price, rather than flipping him for prospects, the Padres have chosen to carry third baseman Chase Headley into the last season before he becomes eligible for free agency, instead of trading him.
It appears that the Padres will take a payroll of about $85 million into the 2014 season, or about $30 million more than the team spent in 2012.
Padres GM Josh Byrnes noted the improvement of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, and the expected return of Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly, in addition to Kennedy and Johnson. San Diego could have one of the best pitching staffs in the National League. To contend with the powers of the NL West, Byrnes said, "We're going to have to have really, really good pitching, and we'll at least have a chance."
Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman, in the Dominican Republic, wrote in an e-mail: "We want to give our organization the best chance to compete and to win. We know that it's going to cost us more than we can practically afford. In some respects it's the price of our success. If we didn't have these types of players, if we didn't have the opportunity for a great season we'd be looking at a significantly different payroll."
Around the league
• Jon Lester made it very clear: He's willing to take a hometown discount to stay in Boston.
How much could that mean, given Lester's age and pitching history?
One comparable salary might be what Matt Cain got with the Giants before the 2012 season -- a six-year, $127.5 million deal. The Red Sox might prefer something closer to the $80 million, five-year deal that Anibal Sanchez got from the Tigers.
For years, there had always been some question about how good Lester could be, because he wasn't as consistently excellent as the game's very best pitchers. But in his work in the last months of the 2013 season, and through the postseason, he seemed to climb from the lofty second tier of starting pitchers into the top tier. He seemed to fully realize his potential, pitching to both sides of the plate.
In the second half of 2013, Lester allowed just four homers in 87 2/3 innings, with a 2.57 ERA, and in five October starts he surrendered only six earned runs in 34 2/3 innings, with 29 strikeouts. He would seem to be worthy of a solid five-year investment, at least, with perhaps some haggling over a sixth year.
• Grady Sizemore, now 31, hasn't played in a major league game since 2011, and he's had a total of 435 plate appearances since 2009. The Red Sox did extensive work leading up to their signing of Sizemore, to get a sense of where he is.
"We spent quite a bit of time with him over the last couple weeks, mostly in Arizona," said GM Ben Cherington. "Our scouts and medical staff went out there to see him. He's doing everything possible to put himself in a position to play and of course we know how good he is when he can do that. We think we can help him, but we'll know a lot more by the end of March."
John Farrell has a long history with Sizemore.
Sizemore changed his mind at the last minute, says Reds GM Walt Jocketty.
• Matt Garza is close to landing a four-year, $52 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, although as of Thursday evening, it hadn't been pushed across the finish line.
Club officials with other teams indicated they were leery of giving him more than a three-year contract because of his history of elbow trouble, but Garza has some extra appeal as the best available free-agent pitcher who is not tied to draft-pick compensation. The fact that Garza is prepared to take a four-year deal with a team not viewed as a classic landing spot for pitchers is a clue that the Brewers separated themselves by being willing to consider a fourth year.
The Cardinals should be prohibitive favorites to win the NL Central, based on statistical models and the potency of their young pitching, but the Brewers could be interesting; they usually hit, and with the addition of Kyle Lohse and Garza in the last year, their rotation will be improved, undoubtedly. Just as the Yankees had to extend themselves in the Tanaka bidding because of the failure of their player development system to produce good young pitching, the Brewers have had to fill in the gaps of what they are not generating from within.
• The Pirates are turning the page on A.J. Burnett's return, writes Jerry Crasnick.
• Jonny Gomes had some thoughts about the Yankees. Gomes also had some specific thoughts on A-Rod, as Scott Lauber writes. From the piece:
"He does steroids or whatever, it sucks. He does this or that, it sucks. He's always in the news, it sucks," the Red Sox left fielder told the Herald yesterday before the 75th annual Boston Baseball Writers' dinner. "But this is the players' union he's going against. It's all of us. Not a real good idea."
Rodriguez recently filed a lawsuit against the MLBPA and Major League Baseball in an attempt to overturn a 162-game suspension for his violation of the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. It was expected that the embattled New York Yankees third baseman would take action against MLB, but turning against the union has irritated many players in the rank and file, including Gomes.
The union represented A-Rod in his arbitration hearing last fall, but Rodriguez' suit claims the MLBPA "abdicated its responsibility" to defend a player and even takes issue with former union chief Michael Weiner, who died of brain cancer in November.
"I think what he had going on is pretty individual," Gomes said. "He did it. It was his decision, his suspension. But I don't think it's really a good idea to go after our union. Down to my (expletive) kids, down to the benefits we have, down to our retirement fund, the union makes our lives better.
"We pay dues to the union for our rights ... Him and the Yankees were butting heads last year. Whatever, don't care. But he's truly going against every single major league player, and every single major league player that's played this game before. It brings a whole different light on things."
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Orioles haven't talked with Fernando Rodney in weeks, writes Dan Connolly.
2. The Orioles signed Aaron Laffey.
3. Nothing is pending with a contract extension, says Max Scherzer.
4. The Royals signed Jon Rauch.
5. David Aardsma agreed to terms with the Indians.
6. Sooner is better for an extension for Giancarlo Stanton, says the Marlins' GM.
7. The Giants worked out a two-year deal with a utility player.
Dings and dents
1. Matt Harvey wants to come back in September.
2. Miguel Cabrera says he's ready to go.
NL East
• Darin Ruf is ready for any role.
• Mike Adams is something of a forgotten man.
NL Central
• Don't count the Pirates in yet, writes Dejan Kovacevic.
AL East
• Blue Jays fans are fidgety, writes John Lott.
• Alex Anthopoulos is taking the brunt of the criticism for the Jays' inaction this winter, but the bottom line is always the budget -- as it is for the Orioles' Dan Duquette. These GMs are required to paint within the lines prescribed by ownership, and to this point, there has been no indication that either Anthopoulos or Duquette has gotten a green light to increase payroll. Last year was the first season in Jays' history that the team went over $100 million.
• Bob Elliott wonders: What's next for the Jays?
AL Central
• Rick Hahn's moves have revitalized the White Sox fan base.
• Brian Dozier is worthy of a good guy award, writes Jim Souhan.
• Drew Smyly is excited about joining the Tigers' rotation.
• Nick Castellanos is comfortable at third base, writes Lynn Henning.
• Gordon Beckham is over his injuries.
• Bench and bullpen will be key for the Indians, writes Paul Hoynes.
AL West
• A Hall of Famer is delivering advice to Texas pitchers.
• Michael Kirkman is on his last opportunity with the Rangers.
• The Mariners' manager has become the latest disciple of the Seahawks' coach.
Two other teams have unleashed the full fury of their resources this winter, although you might've missed it. The Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres have pulled out all stops, and if you're trying to imagine what that looks like, well, just think of drag-racing Mini Coopers.
That is not said to demean either franchise. Actually, it's noted with great admiration. This is a baseball version of "The Charge of the Light Brigade," and the Padres and Rays should be respected for it, for doing all that they can to compete against the moneyed monsters within their respective divisions.
The Rays agreed to terms with Grant Balfour on Thursday, in a winter in which they spent dollars to sign James Loney and David DeJesus, their own free agents. To put the numbers in context: Masahiro Tanaka will make $22 million-plus per season in his seven-year deal with the Yankees, and Loney's $21 million, three-year deal represents the Rays' largest investment in a free agent ... ever. Balfour represents the third-largest investment. Unless some great offer suddenly emerges for David Price, it appears the Rays will keep the Cy Young left-hander, in spite of his $14 million salary, and go into the 2014 season with a franchise-record $74 million payroll, or about 18-20 percent higher than their 2013 budget.
The Padres have quietly made a similar move, a push that really began a couple of years ago when the team's new ownership approved deals for Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, and then took on Ian Kennedy last summer in the midst of his arbitration years. This winter, the Padres committed $8 million to Josh Johnson, signed Joaquin Benoit to a two-year, $15.5 million deal, traded for Seth Smith to address a specific roster need, and traded for left-hander Alex Torres in a seven-player deal with the Rays on Wednesday.
And just as the Rays seem to be leaning toward keeping Price, rather than flipping him for prospects, the Padres have chosen to carry third baseman Chase Headley into the last season before he becomes eligible for free agency, instead of trading him.
It appears that the Padres will take a payroll of about $85 million into the 2014 season, or about $30 million more than the team spent in 2012.
Padres GM Josh Byrnes noted the improvement of Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, and the expected return of Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland and Casey Kelly, in addition to Kennedy and Johnson. San Diego could have one of the best pitching staffs in the National League. To contend with the powers of the NL West, Byrnes said, "We're going to have to have really, really good pitching, and we'll at least have a chance."
Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman, in the Dominican Republic, wrote in an e-mail: "We want to give our organization the best chance to compete and to win. We know that it's going to cost us more than we can practically afford. In some respects it's the price of our success. If we didn't have these types of players, if we didn't have the opportunity for a great season we'd be looking at a significantly different payroll."
Around the league
• Jon Lester made it very clear: He's willing to take a hometown discount to stay in Boston.
How much could that mean, given Lester's age and pitching history?
One comparable salary might be what Matt Cain got with the Giants before the 2012 season -- a six-year, $127.5 million deal. The Red Sox might prefer something closer to the $80 million, five-year deal that Anibal Sanchez got from the Tigers.
For years, there had always been some question about how good Lester could be, because he wasn't as consistently excellent as the game's very best pitchers. But in his work in the last months of the 2013 season, and through the postseason, he seemed to climb from the lofty second tier of starting pitchers into the top tier. He seemed to fully realize his potential, pitching to both sides of the plate.
In the second half of 2013, Lester allowed just four homers in 87 2/3 innings, with a 2.57 ERA, and in five October starts he surrendered only six earned runs in 34 2/3 innings, with 29 strikeouts. He would seem to be worthy of a solid five-year investment, at least, with perhaps some haggling over a sixth year.
• Grady Sizemore, now 31, hasn't played in a major league game since 2011, and he's had a total of 435 plate appearances since 2009. The Red Sox did extensive work leading up to their signing of Sizemore, to get a sense of where he is.
"We spent quite a bit of time with him over the last couple weeks, mostly in Arizona," said GM Ben Cherington. "Our scouts and medical staff went out there to see him. He's doing everything possible to put himself in a position to play and of course we know how good he is when he can do that. We think we can help him, but we'll know a lot more by the end of March."
John Farrell has a long history with Sizemore.
Sizemore changed his mind at the last minute, says Reds GM Walt Jocketty.
• Matt Garza is close to landing a four-year, $52 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, although as of Thursday evening, it hadn't been pushed across the finish line.
Club officials with other teams indicated they were leery of giving him more than a three-year contract because of his history of elbow trouble, but Garza has some extra appeal as the best available free-agent pitcher who is not tied to draft-pick compensation. The fact that Garza is prepared to take a four-year deal with a team not viewed as a classic landing spot for pitchers is a clue that the Brewers separated themselves by being willing to consider a fourth year.
The Cardinals should be prohibitive favorites to win the NL Central, based on statistical models and the potency of their young pitching, but the Brewers could be interesting; they usually hit, and with the addition of Kyle Lohse and Garza in the last year, their rotation will be improved, undoubtedly. Just as the Yankees had to extend themselves in the Tanaka bidding because of the failure of their player development system to produce good young pitching, the Brewers have had to fill in the gaps of what they are not generating from within.
• The Pirates are turning the page on A.J. Burnett's return, writes Jerry Crasnick.
• Jonny Gomes had some thoughts about the Yankees. Gomes also had some specific thoughts on A-Rod, as Scott Lauber writes. From the piece:
"He does steroids or whatever, it sucks. He does this or that, it sucks. He's always in the news, it sucks," the Red Sox left fielder told the Herald yesterday before the 75th annual Boston Baseball Writers' dinner. "But this is the players' union he's going against. It's all of us. Not a real good idea."
Rodriguez recently filed a lawsuit against the MLBPA and Major League Baseball in an attempt to overturn a 162-game suspension for his violation of the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. It was expected that the embattled New York Yankees third baseman would take action against MLB, but turning against the union has irritated many players in the rank and file, including Gomes.
The union represented A-Rod in his arbitration hearing last fall, but Rodriguez' suit claims the MLBPA "abdicated its responsibility" to defend a player and even takes issue with former union chief Michael Weiner, who died of brain cancer in November.
"I think what he had going on is pretty individual," Gomes said. "He did it. It was his decision, his suspension. But I don't think it's really a good idea to go after our union. Down to my (expletive) kids, down to the benefits we have, down to our retirement fund, the union makes our lives better.
"We pay dues to the union for our rights ... Him and the Yankees were butting heads last year. Whatever, don't care. But he's truly going against every single major league player, and every single major league player that's played this game before. It brings a whole different light on things."
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Orioles haven't talked with Fernando Rodney in weeks, writes Dan Connolly.
2. The Orioles signed Aaron Laffey.
3. Nothing is pending with a contract extension, says Max Scherzer.
4. The Royals signed Jon Rauch.
5. David Aardsma agreed to terms with the Indians.
6. Sooner is better for an extension for Giancarlo Stanton, says the Marlins' GM.
7. The Giants worked out a two-year deal with a utility player.
Dings and dents
1. Matt Harvey wants to come back in September.
2. Miguel Cabrera says he's ready to go.
NL East
• Darin Ruf is ready for any role.
• Mike Adams is something of a forgotten man.
NL Central
• Don't count the Pirates in yet, writes Dejan Kovacevic.
AL East
• Blue Jays fans are fidgety, writes John Lott.
• Alex Anthopoulos is taking the brunt of the criticism for the Jays' inaction this winter, but the bottom line is always the budget -- as it is for the Orioles' Dan Duquette. These GMs are required to paint within the lines prescribed by ownership, and to this point, there has been no indication that either Anthopoulos or Duquette has gotten a green light to increase payroll. Last year was the first season in Jays' history that the team went over $100 million.
• Bob Elliott wonders: What's next for the Jays?
AL Central
• Rick Hahn's moves have revitalized the White Sox fan base.
• Brian Dozier is worthy of a good guy award, writes Jim Souhan.
• Drew Smyly is excited about joining the Tigers' rotation.
• Nick Castellanos is comfortable at third base, writes Lynn Henning.
• Gordon Beckham is over his injuries.
• Bench and bullpen will be key for the Indians, writes Paul Hoynes.
AL West
• A Hall of Famer is delivering advice to Texas pitchers.
• Michael Kirkman is on his last opportunity with the Rangers.
• The Mariners' manager has become the latest disciple of the Seahawks' coach.
Five strangest moves of winter.
Every offseason, there are some deals that make you scratch your head. Not necessarily for the money paid to the player, but for the return received in trade or how that player actually fits on the roster. The 2013-2014 MLB offseason has been no exception.
Let's take a look at five transactions where we're not sure what one team was thinking.
Colorado Rockies trade Dexter Fowler to the Houston Astros for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes
Fowler isn't perfect, but he was the best center fielder the Rockies had. They preferred the upside of Lyles, hoping that they could find another Tyler Chatwood. And perhaps there is logic in that, because they're both young pitchers who might have been rushed to the majors.
But where Chatwood has a good fastball and gets tons of ground balls, Lyles has neither a good fastball nor generates enough grounders to succeed at high altitude. Last season, among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, just two -- Charlie Morton and Samuel Deduno -- generated a higher percentage of ground balls than did Chatwood. Lyles, meanwhile, ranked 41st on that list. Perhaps the Rockies can change Lyles' game, but that's a big bet when the player you're giving up is a known and precious commodity -- a league-average center fielder.
The issue is that Fowler may be even be more than that. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th among qualified center fielders in wRC+, on par with Carlos Gomez. And now that he has left Coors Field, his defensive statistics -- advanced and otherwise -- will only look better, as the cavernous Colorado ballpark throws off all defensive outfield evaluations. To compound the problem, the Rockies are now hoping to play star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in center field more frequently, but given the giant pasture there and CarGo's past knee troubles, that plan looks like a recipe for disaster.
The Astros also gave up Barnes in the deal, but he is likely no better than replacement level, and the Rockies already had two such players in their outfield in Charlie Blackmon and Charlie Culberson. Barnes then became even more irrelevant when the the Rockies traded for Drew Stubbs less than two weeks later. He'll be lucky to be the team's fifth outfielder.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign Chris Perez
There's no way to sucarcoat it: Last year, Perez was terrible. The Dodgers had a full bullpen of better pitchers -- particularly Kenley Jansen, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell, Brian Wilson and Ronald Belisario. In addition, rookies Chris Withrow and Jose Dominguez were better. Heck, even Carlos Marmol, in his time with the Dodgers, performed better than did Perez in Cleveland. The Dodgers then added to their stable of competent-to-good relievers when they signed Jamey Wright.
With as many as eight competent relievers under contract, surely the Dodgers didn't need a ninth? And yet, they decided to lock in Perez. This makes little sense, and will probably cost a kid like Withrow or Dominguez a shot at a big league job.
The deal also didn't really make much sense from Perez's standpoint, if his end goal is to try to retain a closer's job. At best, he'll be No. 3 on the depth chart for saves behind Jansen and Wilson, and the Dodgers will have no reason to trade him to a contender at midseason, since they will already be contenders. If he doesn't work out in a middle-leverage role, he'll be cut. And if he does work out, he may have pigeonholed himself back into the far-less-lucrative setup man territory.
The Dodgers are probably hoping for a rebound from Perez, but given that they already had a whole bullpen full of better choices, and the fact that Perez's average fastball velocity was the lowest of his career last year, there is little reason to expect such a rebound. On top of all that, there was no reason to lock him up for a major league job in early December when they could have waited for cheaper options to emerge. All things considered, this move just didn't make any sense.
San Francisco Giants sign Joaquin Arias to two-year extension
Like Perez, Arias is a replacement-level player. He has one skill -- he is above-average at third base defensively. The Giants have sometimes made use of this skill -- Arias started at third base 18 times last season, but the bulk of his work there has come as a defensive replacement.
In his two seasons with the Giants, he has played 129 games at third base, but he has started just 57 of them, and has played a complete game at the hot corner just 51 times. He's a defensive sub -- around when the team wants to give Pablo Sandoval a breather, and on the bench when they don't. Nevertheless, the team locked him into a two-year deal this week, to cover his last two arbitration years. The cost will be modest, so it's an easily corrected mistake, but one that shouldn't have been made in the first place.
For one thing, Sandoval is a free agent after the 2014 season, and the Giants' next starting third baseman might not need to be replaced defensively. Furthermore, Sandoval is once again in shape this year, and dare we say, the best shape of his life. With such improved conditioning, he might not need to be replaced as frequently himself this season. After all, it's not like he's a defensive disaster -- for his career, he has a positive UZR at the hot corner.
Finally, the team has Nick Noonan available at the league minimum salary. Like Arias, Noonan is a banjo-hitting utility infielder with a good glove. The difference is that Noonan is a lot further from arbitration, and will make less for the foreseeable future.
Having Arias around this year isn't the worst thing in the world, but given that the Giants don't know what third base will look like next year and have a league-minimum earner around in Noonan, it wasn't necessary to lock in Arias for a second year.
Detroit Tigers trade Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Robbie Ray, Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi
The Nationals may have got the steal of the offseason with this deal. Last year, Fister's 4.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) made him the 12th-most valuable pitcher in the majors, and over the past three years, only eight pitchers have had a higher WAR.
For their trouble, the Tigers got a utility infielder that they didn't really need and two pitchers who don't figure to crack their starting rotation and have just a grand total of 31 innings pitched above Double-A. Ray is a decent prospect, but for a team that is trying to win the World Series right now, this was a perplexing move. The Mariners were the first team to be burned when they got too little in return for Fister, and the Tigers will almost assuredly be the second.
Nationals sign Nate McLouth to two-year deal
McLouth is a good player and the Nationals had some depth issues with their outfield last year. So on the surface, this signing makes perfect sense. But then you read things like the team expects to give him "significant at-bats," and you see that he will be paid more than $5 million a season, which is more than what most fourth outfielders make. And you start to wonder, exactly how is this arrangement going to work?
By signing this contract, the Nationals are essentially saying that they are confident that one of their corner outfielders -- Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth -- will get hurt at some point. And maybe that will happen. But what if it doesn't? What if they're healthy all season? McLouth is a nice player, but any day he spends in the lineup in front of a healthy Harper or Werth is a day where the Nationals don't have their best team on the field. McLouth on his best day might be as good as Harper or Werth on their worst, but you'd have to squint to see it. In the past three seasons, McLouth's best wRC+ is an even 100; that is also Werth's worst. Harper's wRC+ hasn't yet dipped beneath 121, and probably won't any time soon.
Perhaps the Nationals want to play McLouth in center, but that wouldn't be a great idea. McLouth hasn't played significant innings in center since 2011, and he hasn't played well in center since 2009, and that was really the only season out of his five with significant time in center field in which he was actually valuable.
Scott Hairston would be a better bet to play over Denard Span if he needs a breather. For one, Hairston hits right-handed, which better complements Span. For another, he has played a better defensive center field in his career than McLouth. For their careers, Hairston has been worth 3.4 UZR per 150 games in center, while McLouth's UZR/150 is minus-12.3. And when you throw in the fact that both McLouth and Span hit left-handed and that Span is McLouth's equal at the plate and clear superior with the glove (Span's UZR/150 in center is 6.1), it's hard to see how you would justify playing McLouth over Span at all, never mind in center field.
McLouth is a nice player, but he is inferior to all three of Washington's starting outfielders, and in certain situations -- specifically against left-handed pitchers -- he is inferior to Hairston as well. So unless one of the other four outfielders lands on the disabled list, giving McLouth that aforementioned significant playing time will be a mistake.
Let's take a look at five transactions where we're not sure what one team was thinking.
Colorado Rockies trade Dexter Fowler to the Houston Astros for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes
Fowler isn't perfect, but he was the best center fielder the Rockies had. They preferred the upside of Lyles, hoping that they could find another Tyler Chatwood. And perhaps there is logic in that, because they're both young pitchers who might have been rushed to the majors.
But where Chatwood has a good fastball and gets tons of ground balls, Lyles has neither a good fastball nor generates enough grounders to succeed at high altitude. Last season, among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, just two -- Charlie Morton and Samuel Deduno -- generated a higher percentage of ground balls than did Chatwood. Lyles, meanwhile, ranked 41st on that list. Perhaps the Rockies can change Lyles' game, but that's a big bet when the player you're giving up is a known and precious commodity -- a league-average center fielder.
The issue is that Fowler may be even be more than that. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th among qualified center fielders in wRC+, on par with Carlos Gomez. And now that he has left Coors Field, his defensive statistics -- advanced and otherwise -- will only look better, as the cavernous Colorado ballpark throws off all defensive outfield evaluations. To compound the problem, the Rockies are now hoping to play star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in center field more frequently, but given the giant pasture there and CarGo's past knee troubles, that plan looks like a recipe for disaster.
The Astros also gave up Barnes in the deal, but he is likely no better than replacement level, and the Rockies already had two such players in their outfield in Charlie Blackmon and Charlie Culberson. Barnes then became even more irrelevant when the the Rockies traded for Drew Stubbs less than two weeks later. He'll be lucky to be the team's fifth outfielder.
Los Angeles Dodgers sign Chris Perez
There's no way to sucarcoat it: Last year, Perez was terrible. The Dodgers had a full bullpen of better pitchers -- particularly Kenley Jansen, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell, Brian Wilson and Ronald Belisario. In addition, rookies Chris Withrow and Jose Dominguez were better. Heck, even Carlos Marmol, in his time with the Dodgers, performed better than did Perez in Cleveland. The Dodgers then added to their stable of competent-to-good relievers when they signed Jamey Wright.
With as many as eight competent relievers under contract, surely the Dodgers didn't need a ninth? And yet, they decided to lock in Perez. This makes little sense, and will probably cost a kid like Withrow or Dominguez a shot at a big league job.
The deal also didn't really make much sense from Perez's standpoint, if his end goal is to try to retain a closer's job. At best, he'll be No. 3 on the depth chart for saves behind Jansen and Wilson, and the Dodgers will have no reason to trade him to a contender at midseason, since they will already be contenders. If he doesn't work out in a middle-leverage role, he'll be cut. And if he does work out, he may have pigeonholed himself back into the far-less-lucrative setup man territory.
The Dodgers are probably hoping for a rebound from Perez, but given that they already had a whole bullpen full of better choices, and the fact that Perez's average fastball velocity was the lowest of his career last year, there is little reason to expect such a rebound. On top of all that, there was no reason to lock him up for a major league job in early December when they could have waited for cheaper options to emerge. All things considered, this move just didn't make any sense.
San Francisco Giants sign Joaquin Arias to two-year extension
Like Perez, Arias is a replacement-level player. He has one skill -- he is above-average at third base defensively. The Giants have sometimes made use of this skill -- Arias started at third base 18 times last season, but the bulk of his work there has come as a defensive replacement.
In his two seasons with the Giants, he has played 129 games at third base, but he has started just 57 of them, and has played a complete game at the hot corner just 51 times. He's a defensive sub -- around when the team wants to give Pablo Sandoval a breather, and on the bench when they don't. Nevertheless, the team locked him into a two-year deal this week, to cover his last two arbitration years. The cost will be modest, so it's an easily corrected mistake, but one that shouldn't have been made in the first place.
For one thing, Sandoval is a free agent after the 2014 season, and the Giants' next starting third baseman might not need to be replaced defensively. Furthermore, Sandoval is once again in shape this year, and dare we say, the best shape of his life. With such improved conditioning, he might not need to be replaced as frequently himself this season. After all, it's not like he's a defensive disaster -- for his career, he has a positive UZR at the hot corner.
Finally, the team has Nick Noonan available at the league minimum salary. Like Arias, Noonan is a banjo-hitting utility infielder with a good glove. The difference is that Noonan is a lot further from arbitration, and will make less for the foreseeable future.
Having Arias around this year isn't the worst thing in the world, but given that the Giants don't know what third base will look like next year and have a league-minimum earner around in Noonan, it wasn't necessary to lock in Arias for a second year.
Detroit Tigers trade Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Robbie Ray, Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi
The Nationals may have got the steal of the offseason with this deal. Last year, Fister's 4.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) made him the 12th-most valuable pitcher in the majors, and over the past three years, only eight pitchers have had a higher WAR.
For their trouble, the Tigers got a utility infielder that they didn't really need and two pitchers who don't figure to crack their starting rotation and have just a grand total of 31 innings pitched above Double-A. Ray is a decent prospect, but for a team that is trying to win the World Series right now, this was a perplexing move. The Mariners were the first team to be burned when they got too little in return for Fister, and the Tigers will almost assuredly be the second.
Nationals sign Nate McLouth to two-year deal
McLouth is a good player and the Nationals had some depth issues with their outfield last year. So on the surface, this signing makes perfect sense. But then you read things like the team expects to give him "significant at-bats," and you see that he will be paid more than $5 million a season, which is more than what most fourth outfielders make. And you start to wonder, exactly how is this arrangement going to work?
By signing this contract, the Nationals are essentially saying that they are confident that one of their corner outfielders -- Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth -- will get hurt at some point. And maybe that will happen. But what if it doesn't? What if they're healthy all season? McLouth is a nice player, but any day he spends in the lineup in front of a healthy Harper or Werth is a day where the Nationals don't have their best team on the field. McLouth on his best day might be as good as Harper or Werth on their worst, but you'd have to squint to see it. In the past three seasons, McLouth's best wRC+ is an even 100; that is also Werth's worst. Harper's wRC+ hasn't yet dipped beneath 121, and probably won't any time soon.
Perhaps the Nationals want to play McLouth in center, but that wouldn't be a great idea. McLouth hasn't played significant innings in center since 2011, and he hasn't played well in center since 2009, and that was really the only season out of his five with significant time in center field in which he was actually valuable.
Scott Hairston would be a better bet to play over Denard Span if he needs a breather. For one, Hairston hits right-handed, which better complements Span. For another, he has played a better defensive center field in his career than McLouth. For their careers, Hairston has been worth 3.4 UZR per 150 games in center, while McLouth's UZR/150 is minus-12.3. And when you throw in the fact that both McLouth and Span hit left-handed and that Span is McLouth's equal at the plate and clear superior with the glove (Span's UZR/150 in center is 6.1), it's hard to see how you would justify playing McLouth over Span at all, never mind in center field.
McLouth is a nice player, but he is inferior to all three of Washington's starting outfielders, and in certain situations -- specifically against left-handed pitchers -- he is inferior to Hairston as well. So unless one of the other four outfielders lands on the disabled list, giving McLouth that aforementioned significant playing time will be a mistake.
Predicting 2014 disappointments.
As we fight our way through the doldrums of winter to the opening day of spring training, we've been talking the past few weeks about players with shots at breaking out in 2014. (Last week, I looked at pitchers poised to make "the leap" in 2013.)
Baseball's a zero-sum game, with every win being a loss for someone else and every home run hit being a home run allowed for the other guys. Inevitably, there are going to be a number of players who are going to disappoint in 2014, so I decided to take a look at players headed for such a falloff. For each of the players involved, I've included their 2014 ZiPS projection. After all, what's the fun of having a projection system lying around if you're not going to use it?
Carlos Beltran, RF | New York Yankees
Beltran had two solid years in St. Louis and is one of the most underrated players of this generation, but the Yankees are signing Beltran two years too late. If you graph the aging curve of late-30s outfielders -- and they're mostly good ones because the lesser lights are long gone at this point -- it looks like you're drawing a really cool water slide.
Beltran's walk rate has dropped off an even steeper cliff, his 2013 rate being only half of what it was just four or five years ago. Beltran's swinging at more marginal pitches than ever before, hacking at 31.4 percent of pitches out of the strike zone the past two seasons. Contrast that with his prime years, when that percentage was in the mid-teens. Beltran's defense is no longer a plus, and while he'll get significant time at DH, the presence of Alfonso Soriano means he's going to be needed in the field regularly.
2014 ZiPS projection: .267/.327/.479, 26 HR, 115 OPS+, 1.7 WAR (as RF), 2.2 WAR (DH)
Derek Jeter, SS | New York Yankees
The main reason I think the Yankees are far from a playoff team is their reliance on older players (like Beltran), as well as older players with injury concerns (like Jeter). The soon-to-be-40-year-old shortstop had his 2013 season ruined by the ankle he broke in the 2012 ALCS, and while the Yankees have hedged their bets and kept Brendan Ryan around in case of Jeter missing significant time again, they clearly expect a positive contribution from Jeter this season.
That's an uphill climb, given that Jeter turns 40 in June and had already declined enough defensively to become an extremely marginal defender at shortstop before the injury. Jeter will beat the .190/.288/.254 line he put up in 2013, and his defense -- which major defensive metrics estimated would have been worth minus-40 runs over a full season -- will be better. But if he stays healthy and is hitting .250/.300/.300 in June, will a team with a history of giving Jeter anything he wants tell him it's over?
2014 ZiPS projection: .259/.322/.357, 5 HR, 7 SB, 85 OPS+, 0.4 WAR, 330 PA
Corey Hart, 1B/OF | Seattle Mariners
After the blockbuster signing of Robinson Cano, the Mariners went bargain hunting, signing Hart to a one-year deal with incentives that could allow him to nearly double his salary. The Mariners were obviously eager to add some more power to a team that slugged .390 in 2013, but even though Hart's health is no longer an issue, it's a reach.
Like Michael Morse, Hart gets most of his value from power, and Safeco Field has never been kind to right-handed power hitters, even with the fence moved in slightly. In Hart's final two years in Milwaukee, he had a 39/17 home/road homer split, suggesting that the Mariners probably needed to sign Miller Park, as well.
2014 ZiPS projection: .246/.307/.421, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 106 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
Jeff Locke, LHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Riding an 8-2, 2.15-ERA first half, Locke earned a surprise trip to the All-Star Game in July. An ERA of 5.98 the rest of the way brought his final-season stats down to a more realistic -- but still adequate -- 3.52 ERA over 30 starts. Soft-tossers who don't strike anybody out are generally poor long-term bets, and the ones who do survive tend to have excellent control (or are knuckleballers). Seeing as Locke led the National League in walks allowed, we can't praise his command.
2014 ZiPS projection: 8-10, 4.09 ERA, 88 ERA+, 1.0 WAR
John Danks, LHP | Chicago White Sox
When the White Sox signed Danks to a five-year extension after the 2011 season, it seemed like a reasonable gamble. Reasonable or not, it looks ugly today, as Danks has simply not been the same pitcher since his shoulder surgery.
Never having big velocity numbers to start, Danks' fastball dipped below 90 mph, and from his Pitch f/x data, both his horizontal and vertical breaks on nearly every pitch were at career-lows this past season. If Danks is to get a second wind in his career, it's going to need to be for a team like San Diego that plays in a park that will better insulate him from the occasional mistake pitch.
2014 ZiPS projection: 6-9, 5.12 ERA, 84 ERA+, 0.5 WAR
Junior Lake, OF | Chicago Cubs
The second half of the season was extremely bleak on the North Side (even by Cubs standards), but Lake was one of the few bright spots, hitting .284/.332/.428 after being called up from Triple-A Iowa. While the Cubs have a farm system stocked with future stars, Lake isn't likely to be one of them.
His numbers in Iowa look promising on a cursory glance (.295/.341/.462 in 2013), but for the Pacific Coast League, which hasn't had the same drop-off in offense that the majors has, they're fourth-outfielder material. The ZiPS projection system translates his Iowa performance at .258/.298/.377 and his 2012 minor league performance at .255/.301/.373.
2014 ZiPS projection: .252/.295/.380, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 12 SB, 0.3 WAR
Jarred Cosart, RHP | Houston Astros
Cosart had an impressive 1.95 ERA in his first 10 starts in the majors, at age 23. But if you let your eyes drift over and start looking at his other stats, his brief time in the majors suddenly looks a lot less impressive.
Walking more than five batters per game in the majors (with more walks than strikeouts) after walking five batters per game in the Pacific Coast League does not bode well for continued success in the majors. Cosart's not approaching the lost-cause status that Trevor Bauer's nearing, but his game still needs considerable refinement.
2014 ZiPS projection: 6-7, 4.30 ERA, 93 ERA+, 1.3 WAR
Baseball's a zero-sum game, with every win being a loss for someone else and every home run hit being a home run allowed for the other guys. Inevitably, there are going to be a number of players who are going to disappoint in 2014, so I decided to take a look at players headed for such a falloff. For each of the players involved, I've included their 2014 ZiPS projection. After all, what's the fun of having a projection system lying around if you're not going to use it?
Carlos Beltran, RF | New York Yankees
Beltran had two solid years in St. Louis and is one of the most underrated players of this generation, but the Yankees are signing Beltran two years too late. If you graph the aging curve of late-30s outfielders -- and they're mostly good ones because the lesser lights are long gone at this point -- it looks like you're drawing a really cool water slide.
Beltran's walk rate has dropped off an even steeper cliff, his 2013 rate being only half of what it was just four or five years ago. Beltran's swinging at more marginal pitches than ever before, hacking at 31.4 percent of pitches out of the strike zone the past two seasons. Contrast that with his prime years, when that percentage was in the mid-teens. Beltran's defense is no longer a plus, and while he'll get significant time at DH, the presence of Alfonso Soriano means he's going to be needed in the field regularly.
2014 ZiPS projection: .267/.327/.479, 26 HR, 115 OPS+, 1.7 WAR (as RF), 2.2 WAR (DH)
Derek Jeter, SS | New York Yankees
The main reason I think the Yankees are far from a playoff team is their reliance on older players (like Beltran), as well as older players with injury concerns (like Jeter). The soon-to-be-40-year-old shortstop had his 2013 season ruined by the ankle he broke in the 2012 ALCS, and while the Yankees have hedged their bets and kept Brendan Ryan around in case of Jeter missing significant time again, they clearly expect a positive contribution from Jeter this season.
That's an uphill climb, given that Jeter turns 40 in June and had already declined enough defensively to become an extremely marginal defender at shortstop before the injury. Jeter will beat the .190/.288/.254 line he put up in 2013, and his defense -- which major defensive metrics estimated would have been worth minus-40 runs over a full season -- will be better. But if he stays healthy and is hitting .250/.300/.300 in June, will a team with a history of giving Jeter anything he wants tell him it's over?
2014 ZiPS projection: .259/.322/.357, 5 HR, 7 SB, 85 OPS+, 0.4 WAR, 330 PA
Corey Hart, 1B/OF | Seattle Mariners
After the blockbuster signing of Robinson Cano, the Mariners went bargain hunting, signing Hart to a one-year deal with incentives that could allow him to nearly double his salary. The Mariners were obviously eager to add some more power to a team that slugged .390 in 2013, but even though Hart's health is no longer an issue, it's a reach.
Like Michael Morse, Hart gets most of his value from power, and Safeco Field has never been kind to right-handed power hitters, even with the fence moved in slightly. In Hart's final two years in Milwaukee, he had a 39/17 home/road homer split, suggesting that the Mariners probably needed to sign Miller Park, as well.
2014 ZiPS projection: .246/.307/.421, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 106 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
Jeff Locke, LHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Riding an 8-2, 2.15-ERA first half, Locke earned a surprise trip to the All-Star Game in July. An ERA of 5.98 the rest of the way brought his final-season stats down to a more realistic -- but still adequate -- 3.52 ERA over 30 starts. Soft-tossers who don't strike anybody out are generally poor long-term bets, and the ones who do survive tend to have excellent control (or are knuckleballers). Seeing as Locke led the National League in walks allowed, we can't praise his command.
2014 ZiPS projection: 8-10, 4.09 ERA, 88 ERA+, 1.0 WAR
John Danks, LHP | Chicago White Sox
When the White Sox signed Danks to a five-year extension after the 2011 season, it seemed like a reasonable gamble. Reasonable or not, it looks ugly today, as Danks has simply not been the same pitcher since his shoulder surgery.
Never having big velocity numbers to start, Danks' fastball dipped below 90 mph, and from his Pitch f/x data, both his horizontal and vertical breaks on nearly every pitch were at career-lows this past season. If Danks is to get a second wind in his career, it's going to need to be for a team like San Diego that plays in a park that will better insulate him from the occasional mistake pitch.
2014 ZiPS projection: 6-9, 5.12 ERA, 84 ERA+, 0.5 WAR
Junior Lake, OF | Chicago Cubs
The second half of the season was extremely bleak on the North Side (even by Cubs standards), but Lake was one of the few bright spots, hitting .284/.332/.428 after being called up from Triple-A Iowa. While the Cubs have a farm system stocked with future stars, Lake isn't likely to be one of them.
His numbers in Iowa look promising on a cursory glance (.295/.341/.462 in 2013), but for the Pacific Coast League, which hasn't had the same drop-off in offense that the majors has, they're fourth-outfielder material. The ZiPS projection system translates his Iowa performance at .258/.298/.377 and his 2012 minor league performance at .255/.301/.373.
2014 ZiPS projection: .252/.295/.380, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 12 SB, 0.3 WAR
Jarred Cosart, RHP | Houston Astros
Cosart had an impressive 1.95 ERA in his first 10 starts in the majors, at age 23. But if you let your eyes drift over and start looking at his other stats, his brief time in the majors suddenly looks a lot less impressive.
Walking more than five batters per game in the majors (with more walks than strikeouts) after walking five batters per game in the Pacific Coast League does not bode well for continued success in the majors. Cosart's not approaching the lost-cause status that Trevor Bauer's nearing, but his game still needs considerable refinement.
2014 ZiPS projection: 6-7, 4.30 ERA, 93 ERA+, 1.3 WAR
Rumors.
White Sox have faith in Cooper
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
12:47
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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There's plenty of reason for optimism with the pitching staff that the Chicago White Sox already have in the fold as teams around the league continue to count down the days until their hurlers report for the start of Spring Training.
As Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago writes, "Sure the White Sox lost 99 games last season, but the 3.98 staff ERA was ninth in the American League. To put that into perspective, the White Sox were the only team with a losing record to have a staff ERA under 4.00 and were the only losing team in the top 10 in staff ERA."
If the rotation can hold up their end of the bargain, then Nate Jones could well be the answer to replace the traded Addison Reed at the end of games. As Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times points out, "pitching coach Don Cooper has a way of molding closers."
"Listen, man, I can go back to Shingo Takatsu, [Dustin] Hermanson, Bobby [Jenks] and all the years after that [Sergio Santos, Santiago]," Cooper said. "We never had, 'Hey, we just acquired a closer.' We always figured out who was the best guy to close."
That track record and trust in Cooper's tutelage goes along way towards explaining why the White Sox have not gone after any free agent closers like the still-available Fernando Rodney.
Dan Szymborski
Predicting 2014 disappointments
"When the White Sox signed John Danks to a five-year extension after the 2011 season, it seemed like a reasonable gamble. Reasonable or not, it looks ugly today, as Danks has simply not been the same pitcher since his shoulder surgery."
Tags:John Danks, Addison Reed, Nate Jones, Don Cooper
Yankees could turn to Phillies for help
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
11:52
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Now that the New York Yankees have signed Masahiro Tanaka to a contract that catapulted their 2014 payroll above their self-imposed $189 million cap, ESPN.com's Buster Olney thinks the team might have a huge advantage once the season gets into full swing.
"Yes, their infield is full of question marks -- seemingly the only sure thing is that the quartet you see on Opening Day will not be the same in September -- and they have pitching questions," Olney writes. "But when assessing their 2014 playoff chances, we should remember that what they have is tremendous potential for difference-making in-season upgrades.
"No longer will they be counting nickels and dimes. New York will be able to take on money, which is a unique power in the middle of a season."
That power could well be used to lure away one, if not more, of the high-priced Philadelphia Phillies to the Bronx, should the aging National League East team struggle in the first half of the season. In particular, Olney suggests that the likes of Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee and/or Cole Hamels might each be made available by the Phillies under the right circumstances.
Additionally, by claiming that extra salary, the Yankees would not necessarily be hamstrung by the fact their minor league system has fewer prospects than most organizations that they can use in a "win today" kind of trade. ESPN Insider's Keith Law ranked the Yankees just No. 20 in the majors in his 2014 annual rank of farm systems.
Jerry Crasnick
Odd offseason for the aging Phillies
"According to Baseball-reference.com, the Phillies had the third-oldest contingent of position players in the majors last year (at an average age of 30.0), behind the Yankees and the Dodgers. And they didn't get any younger with the addition of the 36-year-old Byrd. Of the projected 2014 position-player starters, center fielder Ben Revere, third baseman Cody Asche and Brown are the only ones who weren't born during the 1970s."
Tags:Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Masahiro Tanaka
Last chance for V-Mart in Detroit?
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
10:22
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The highest-paid player on the Oakland Athletics is Yoenis Cespedes, who is scheduled to make $10.5 million in 2014. Even for a budget-conscious team like the A's, that's not a contract that's going to break the bank going forward. However, for the Detroit Tigers, with seven players set to make at least $10 million this season, at some point there's got to be some trimming of the payroll.
That's the concern of Victor Martinez, who is set to make $12 million in this, the final year of a four-year deal. Although Martinez says he'd like to return to Detroit next season, he's quite aware that he might not be able to do so. "I want to stay here, yes," Martinez said. "But they have a lot going on. They have Scherzer; they have Miggy."
As Tom Gage of the Detroit News points out, Martinez "will no doubt hit cleanup for the Tigers this season" but is quite aware of the ticking of the clock. "You're getting older and you know that the end of your career might be right in the corner," Martinez laments.
With an expected roster of at least ten players who will be at least 30 years of age at the start of this season, with Scherzer set to join that group in July, Martinez may well end up being the "old man out" when his free agency does, in fact, kick in.
Tags
etroit Tigers, Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter
Tribe and Masterson far apart
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
9:20
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Although Justin Masterson can become a free agent at the end of the year, he's still going to be a member of the Cleveland Indians rotation this season. However, the arbitration-eligible pitcher has yet to come to terms on a contract with the team for 2014, and the longer it takes to do so, the less likely it is he'll stick around for 2015 and beyond.
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Cleveland Indians have "shelved" talks with Masterson and his agent as it relates to a multi-year contract. The two sides will instead focus their energies on a compromise one-year deal in the hopes of avoiding a scheduled February 20 arbitration hearing.
"There is a $3.75 million difference between what Masterson is seeking for the 2014 season and what the Indians have offered. It’s the biggest difference among any unsigned player who filed for arbitration this winter," Hoynes writes. "The 6-6, 250-pound Masterson filed at $11.8 million. The Indians countered at $8.05 million. The midpoint is $9.925 million."
Although both sides have said they're open to a long-term relationship, because of the gulf in the current negotiations the chances of some sort of meeting of the minds going forward seems highly unlikely to occur.
Hoynes also suggests that the Indians might be interested in pitcher Scott Baker, who pitched in just three September contests for the Chicago Cubs in 2013. The Cubs don't seem to want him back, but the Seattle Mariners have also reportedly expressed interest in the former 15-game winner.
Tags:Cleveland Indians, Justin Masterson, Scott Baker
Monday Roundup: O's second thoughts
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
2:34
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Despite hitting just .224 in 85 games for the Baltimore Orioles last season, Ryan Flaherty heads towards the spring optimistic that he will be able to win the starting second base job outright.
According to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, Flaherty is the favorite to win the job now that Brian Roberts has signed with the New York Yankees. Flaherty is expected to compete with Jemile Weeks and Jonathan Schoop for the spot in the Baltimore lineup.
"Schoop is more versatile, but if the Orioles envision him as their eventual second baseman, he needs to play the position every day in Norfolk. Weeks' value would increase if he can move around," Kubatko writes.
Here's a recap of some of the other buzz from around the major leagues this Monday afternoon:
David Ortiz: The Boston Red Sox designated hitter would like to finish out his career at Fenway Park, but only if the team is willing to give him a multi-year deal when his current contract expires at the end of the season. If not, Big Papi might be forced to seek employment elsewhere.
Ervin Santana: Where will the free agent pitcher end up for 2014? Although there are many interested suitors, including the Chicago Cubs and potentially the Toronto Blue Jays, one team that might not be picking up the phone is the Seattle Mariners.
Drew Storen: The reliever says that he is not worried about recent trade rumors that surfaced when Grant Balfour's name was linked to the Washington Nationals. He says his name has come up many times since 2011, so he's used to it, and fully expects to pitch for the Nats in 2014.
Jason Kipnis: The second baseman says he is "absolutely open" to talking with the Cleveland Indians about a contract extension, but does not want the situation to become an in-season distraction. Although he won't become a free agent until 2018, without a long-term deal, he would be subject to arbitration every season until that time.
Brandon Beachy: Atlanta Braves beat writer Mark Bowman says that the pitcher, who saw action in only five games last season after recovering from 2012 Tommy John surgery, "will not have any limitations when Spring Training begins. But he says he will pace himself during the camp's early portion."
Chris Nelson: The infielder, who played for three different teams in 2013, is reportedly on the verge of "wrapping up a deal" with the Cincinnati Reds, this according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
Paul Janish: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the "slick fielding shortstop" has signed a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies and will be invited to big league camp.
Tags:Brandon Beachy, Ryan Flaherty, David Ortiz, Chris Nelson, Jemile Weeks, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Ervin Santana, Drew Storen, Paul Janish
Reds ponder future for Bailey, Chapman
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
1:22
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Cincinnati Reds and Homer Bailey both seem to be optimistic that an agreement will be reached that would avoid the pitcher's 2014 salary being set by an arbitrator. However, although the Reds say they want to keep Bailey in their rotation for the long-term, so far there hasn't been any movement on that front.
"I'm not going to put a timeline on anything," Bailey said. "These are not processes that get done overnight. Last year we did our arbitration four days before we went to the hearing. They had a bunch of guys to sign. I'm not one to rush things and say it has to be done by this type of date. It's not something I want to have to deal with during the season."
The two sides are about $3 million apart for 2014. Bailey could become a free agent after the season if a new deal is not worked out before then. If Bailey were to walk, or perhaps get traded near this year's deadline, there's always the possibility that the Reds could finally decide to convert Aroldis Chapman from their closer to part of their rotation.
C. Trent Rosencrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that manager Bryan Price says the Reds would like to get more than 60 innings out of Aroldis Chapman this season. While Price is likely talking about the potential of using the pitcher in relief stints of more than just one inning at a time, the temptation to use him as a starter is certainly something the new manager has pondered in the past.
"In regards to Aroldis, I was on record last Spring Training that pitchers get better throwing innings, especially pitchers that don't have a lot of innings under their belt or pitchers that struggle to throw strikes or throw their secondary pitches over the plate. I haven't changed that philosophy," Price said shortly after taking over for Dusty Baker.
Tags:Cincinnati Reds, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman
White Sox rotation taking shape
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
12:33
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Chicago White Sox were one of the teams that tried to woo Masahiro Tanaka to their rotation, but in the end, they fell short of that goal. However, general manager Rick Hahn remains quite optimistic in what he already has on the mound for 2014.
The White Sox are heading into the season with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and John Danks as their top three. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago notes that pitching coach Don Cooper said this weekend that Felipe Paulino has "a real good chance" at making the Chicago White Sox rotation. His station also quoted Cooper as saying that "Erik Johnson is penciled in pretty firmly" already in the starting five.
Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago writes that the team's optimism in Johnson is part of the reason they weren't all that upset to miss out on Tanaka. "The White Sox could have as many as two rotation spots up for grabs if no roster additions are made in the next two months, but Johnson's focus will remain on the small details while letting the big picture take care of itself."
"The goal is to follow the process and try to work on what I need to work on each day, whether it be fastball, curve, slider, change," Johnson said this weekend. "Whatever they say I need to work on, that’s what I'm going to put my emphasis on."
While Hahn would not confirm anything at the back end of the rotation, he did tell the Chicago Daily Herald that "having the competition between Johnson, Paulino, Andre Rienzo, the kid (Eric) Surkamp we took off waivers from San Francisco and Charlie Leesman, we've got interesting guys with some upside that could help us."
Tags:Chris Sale, John Danks, Jose Quintana, Eric Surkamp, Felipe Paulino, Erik Johnson, Charlie Leesman, Andre Rienzo
Could David Ortiz leave Boston?
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
11:03
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The 2013 season ended with David Ortiz standing in the middle of Fenway Park with a microphone in his hand, celebrating a World Series victory with the Boston fans for what he infamously had hailed earlier in the year as being "our city." While it's hard to imagine Ortiz ever playing elsewhere, the slugger would not rule it out in a Sunday interview.
Ortiz told a local sports anchor that while he would like to retire as a member of the Boston Red Sox, "as I always keep on telling people, this is a business. Sometimes you've got to do what's best for you and your family. As long as they keep offering me a job and I keep doing what I'm supposed to do and the relationship keeps on building up, I'm going to be there. Hopefully, I won't have to go and wear another uniform."
But, Ortiz added that if he doesn't get offered a long-term deal, it may be "time to move on." Getting a contract that isn't just for one more season is something that is hugely important to Big Papi. According to Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, "Since last season ended, (Ortiz) has expressed his desire in interviews for another extension, but Boston general manager Ben Cherington said the club had not yet entered negotiations and did not seem to consider it a matter of urgency."
Ortiz is in the final year of two-year, $26 million deal and would become a free agent at the end of the season if an extension is not worked out prior to the offseason.
Tagsavid Ortiz
With Garza gone, what pitcher is next?
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
10:22
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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After several starts and stops, the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Matt Garza finally announced that they have come to terms on a multi-year contract. According to several sources, the deal is for four seasons, with an option for 2018, that could ultimately earn the pitcher as much as $67 million.
With Garza off the board, Ervin Santana is considered by many to be the best remaining option on the market, and the pitcher reportedly has received interest from several teams. One of those teams, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish is the Chicago Cubs, though he thinks that while it is "not impossible" he could go there, a signing is not likely at this time.
ESPN Insider Eno Sarris thinks that the best fit for Santana might well be north of the border. "The Toronto Blue Jays have to sign a pitcher. It's not a question of desire. They're short a starting pitcher, maybe two ...(and) two potentially elite starting pitchers are available on the free-agent market: Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, and the Blue Jays must make sure at least one of them is toeing the rubber in the Rogers Centre by summer."
Sarris lists Brandon Morrow, J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison as the current candidates for the final three spots in Toronto's rotation behind R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle. His opinion of that collection of arms? "For a roster that looks to be built for the now, it's a grim group of pitchers."
It doesn't look like Santana will end up with the Seattle Mariners. As Greg Johns of MLB.com reports, while general manager Jack Zduriencik said this weekend that he does want to add a No. 3 starter to his rotation, "his answer clearly indicated the club will continue pursuing lower-profile free agents."
"The Mariners just signed former Brewers first-round draft pick Mark Rogers to a minor league deal," said Johns, "and they are believed to be in the running for former Twins starter Scott Baker, who pitched well for the Cubs in the final month last season after returning from Tommy John surgery."
Tags:Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers, Mark Rogers, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Baker, Ervin Santana
Doumit done as a catcher?
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
9:33
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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(UPDATE: On Sunday, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution contacted Ryan Doumit's agent. He said that the comments made by Brian Dozier about his client not wanting to catch anymore were untrue. "If Dozier had been correct," O'Brien writes, "it would sure have been interesting to see what the Braves thought and eventually did about the situation. But as of now, it doesn't seem like the comment was at all accurate.")
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that while talking with Minnesota Twins infielder Brian Dozier, the second baseman mentioned to him that Ryan Doumit "is 'not catching anymore' after talking it over with his family."
Doumit had suffered a concussion in August after taking a foul tip off his mask while playing behind the plate, and apparently wants to avoid a repeat occurrence at all costs. This news, if true, might come as a bit of a surprise to the Atlanta Braves.
Doumit, who played with the Twins last season, is now with the Braves after a December trade sent him to the team in exchange for pitcher Sean Gilmartin. At the time, most people thought Doumit was being acquired to catch in the event that Evan Gattis struggled handing full-time catcher duties in the post-Brian McCann era. However, if he's not planning to get behind the plate, there's really no place for him to play.
As ESPN.com's Keith Law noted at the time of the deal, "The problem is that Atlanta doesn't have a spot to move (Doumit) to if it decides it can't live with his catching, with first base and all three outfield spots filled. He could end up an expensive bench piece for a team that could use the help but operates on a budget that doesn't allow for that kind of extravagance."
Tags:Ryan Doumit, Evan Gattis
No Rangers return for Young
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
9:04
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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(UPDATE: According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Michael Young "remains undecided whether he will return for his 15th major league season or retire to spend more time with his three sons." Young said on Sunday that if he does decide to return to the majors this season it's "a safe bet" that he would do so in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform.)
There doesn't seem to be any happy reunion on the horizon for Michael Young and the Texas Rangers, as the American League West team expects to look internally for somebody to fill the role of utility infielder off the bench.
According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the Rangers had considered making Young an offer earlier this offseason, but don't foresee that happening now. Wilson added that Jon Daniels said that while Young "likely has many opportunities to play," if he chooses retirement the Rangers would like to be part of that announcement.
There's still a chance the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers might come calling, but one other potential suitor could be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have previously had interest in Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland this winter, but as of the moment, seem to be resigned to starting a combination of Gaby Sanchez and Andrew Lambo at first base.
Young could certainly provide some veteran depth at the position, but it remains to be seen if he even wants to play at all in 2014.
Jim Bowden
Five players who benefit from non-moves
"Lambo showed some promise in 2013, crushing 32 home runs with a .932 OPS in Double- and Triple-A, but he had just 30 at-bats during a September call-up. He's a bit old to be considered a "prospect," but multiple pro scouts said me that they believe Lambo has a chance to put up the same type of numbers as Morneau did for the Pirates in 2013. Right now, he's in line to get the bulk of the at-bats for the Pirates at first base."
Tags:Michael Young, Andrew Lambo, Gaby Sanchez
Will Santana return to Minnesota?
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
1:38
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Mike Berardino of St. Paul Pioneer Press reports from TwinsFest that Minnesota Twins general manager Terry Ryan said that left-hander Johan Santana "very much remains" on the team's radar.
"He lives down in Fort Myers, so geographically it makes a lot of sense," Ryan said. "We've had some dialogue with his representation. He's not quite ready to make a decision yet, but we're keeping an eye on him down there. Obviously it would be a good fit for both of us."
Ryan said that the Twins are courting Santana, even though the pitcher won't be ready until sometime in the summer. This statement took ESPN New York's Adam Rubin a bit by surprise because he says Santana's people have always portrayed Johan as expecting to be ready for the beginning of the season.
"Santana is recovering from a second surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. It took him 19 months to get into a major league game again the first time, and this is a rare surgery for a pitcher," Rubin says. So, Ryan's comment that Santana is "not ready to go" is certainly new information being brought to the table that bears watching going forward.
Tags:Minnesota Twins, Johan Santana
Pestano ready to rebound
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
12:22
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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In 2012, Cleveland Indians reliever Vinnie Pestano was as reliable as they come, finishing second in the majors with 36 holds on the year. Last season, it all fell apart for Pestano, as he threw so poorly he ended up getting demoted to Triple-A in July.
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, a previously undisclosed injury may have been to blame. He writes that Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway acknowledged that Pestano suffered an elbow injury while pitching for Team USA in the WBC last spring, adding that it was the first such admission from anyone in the organization.
"I think some of that WBC injury really trained his arm to do something different than he's done in the past," Callaway was quoted as saying. "The reason Vinnie was so good in the past, is that he has unorthodox mechanics. When he had a little bit of an injury in the WBC, he started throwing like a normal person, which isn't good."
Callaway said he expects the reliever to regain his 2012 form now that he has had time to fully recover and get back to pitching in the manner that led to his prior success.
Tags:Cleveland Indians, Vinnie Pestano
Sano prepares to have major impact
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
10:32
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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For Minnesota Twins prospect Miguel Sano, the offseason got off to a rocky start when he played in just two games in the Dominican Winter League before getting shut down with a strained ligament in his throwing elbow. However, the third baseman is determined to avoid surgery and show the team he's ready to begin his big league career.
Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Sano fully expects to not only make the Twins opening roster, but insists that he'll have a huge impact on the team this season. "His sore elbow kept him from doing his normal workout for six weeks, so (Sano) put on a few extra pounds. But if his body has gotten bigger this offseason, so have his expectations. Sano may have only 67 games of experience above Class A, but made it clear Saturday in Target Field that he intends to play here this season -- and right away."
Miller says that Sano predicted that he would hit 45 home runs this year -- "Maybe 55, you never know." That's probably more the excitement of youth than boa****l bravado talking, but Sano has received a clean bill of health by team doctors, and with no pain or apparent structural damage to be seen, there's every reason for optimism.
Tags:Minnesota Twins, Miguel Sano
Verlander doesn't think he'll miss time
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
9:17
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Earlier this week, Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski seemed to be hedging on whether or not pitcher Justin Verlander would be recovered enough from his offseason surgery to be able to take the mound for the team by Opening Day.
"I'm not concerned for him being out an extended period," Dombrowski said. "If he misses any time of the season, it would only be a very short time period. I'm not ready to say that he will. But he's doing very well."
On Saturday, after hearing back from Verlander, who was confused as to why those comments seemed to hint he might not be ready to hit the ground running, Dombrowksi clarified the situation. "We anticipate that he will be ready for the start of the season -- and he should be ready. I can't say 100 percent that he will be ready, but I'd be very surprised if he's not," Dombrowski told the Detroit News.
The Tigers open the 2014 season with a three game series at home against the Kansas City Royals beginning on Monday, March 31.
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
12:47
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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There's plenty of reason for optimism with the pitching staff that the Chicago White Sox already have in the fold as teams around the league continue to count down the days until their hurlers report for the start of Spring Training.
As Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago writes, "Sure the White Sox lost 99 games last season, but the 3.98 staff ERA was ninth in the American League. To put that into perspective, the White Sox were the only team with a losing record to have a staff ERA under 4.00 and were the only losing team in the top 10 in staff ERA."
If the rotation can hold up their end of the bargain, then Nate Jones could well be the answer to replace the traded Addison Reed at the end of games. As Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times points out, "pitching coach Don Cooper has a way of molding closers."
"Listen, man, I can go back to Shingo Takatsu, [Dustin] Hermanson, Bobby [Jenks] and all the years after that [Sergio Santos, Santiago]," Cooper said. "We never had, 'Hey, we just acquired a closer.' We always figured out who was the best guy to close."
That track record and trust in Cooper's tutelage goes along way towards explaining why the White Sox have not gone after any free agent closers like the still-available Fernando Rodney.
Dan Szymborski
Predicting 2014 disappointments
"When the White Sox signed John Danks to a five-year extension after the 2011 season, it seemed like a reasonable gamble. Reasonable or not, it looks ugly today, as Danks has simply not been the same pitcher since his shoulder surgery."
Tags:John Danks, Addison Reed, Nate Jones, Don Cooper
Yankees could turn to Phillies for help
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
11:52
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Now that the New York Yankees have signed Masahiro Tanaka to a contract that catapulted their 2014 payroll above their self-imposed $189 million cap, ESPN.com's Buster Olney thinks the team might have a huge advantage once the season gets into full swing.
"Yes, their infield is full of question marks -- seemingly the only sure thing is that the quartet you see on Opening Day will not be the same in September -- and they have pitching questions," Olney writes. "But when assessing their 2014 playoff chances, we should remember that what they have is tremendous potential for difference-making in-season upgrades.
"No longer will they be counting nickels and dimes. New York will be able to take on money, which is a unique power in the middle of a season."
That power could well be used to lure away one, if not more, of the high-priced Philadelphia Phillies to the Bronx, should the aging National League East team struggle in the first half of the season. In particular, Olney suggests that the likes of Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee and/or Cole Hamels might each be made available by the Phillies under the right circumstances.
Additionally, by claiming that extra salary, the Yankees would not necessarily be hamstrung by the fact their minor league system has fewer prospects than most organizations that they can use in a "win today" kind of trade. ESPN Insider's Keith Law ranked the Yankees just No. 20 in the majors in his 2014 annual rank of farm systems.
Jerry Crasnick
Odd offseason for the aging Phillies
"According to Baseball-reference.com, the Phillies had the third-oldest contingent of position players in the majors last year (at an average age of 30.0), behind the Yankees and the Dodgers. And they didn't get any younger with the addition of the 36-year-old Byrd. Of the projected 2014 position-player starters, center fielder Ben Revere, third baseman Cody Asche and Brown are the only ones who weren't born during the 1970s."
Tags:Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Masahiro Tanaka
Last chance for V-Mart in Detroit?
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
10:22
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The highest-paid player on the Oakland Athletics is Yoenis Cespedes, who is scheduled to make $10.5 million in 2014. Even for a budget-conscious team like the A's, that's not a contract that's going to break the bank going forward. However, for the Detroit Tigers, with seven players set to make at least $10 million this season, at some point there's got to be some trimming of the payroll.
That's the concern of Victor Martinez, who is set to make $12 million in this, the final year of a four-year deal. Although Martinez says he'd like to return to Detroit next season, he's quite aware that he might not be able to do so. "I want to stay here, yes," Martinez said. "But they have a lot going on. They have Scherzer; they have Miggy."
As Tom Gage of the Detroit News points out, Martinez "will no doubt hit cleanup for the Tigers this season" but is quite aware of the ticking of the clock. "You're getting older and you know that the end of your career might be right in the corner," Martinez laments.
With an expected roster of at least ten players who will be at least 30 years of age at the start of this season, with Scherzer set to join that group in July, Martinez may well end up being the "old man out" when his free agency does, in fact, kick in.
Tags
etroit Tigers, Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Torii HunterTribe and Masterson far apart
January, 28, 2014
JAN 28
9:20
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Although Justin Masterson can become a free agent at the end of the year, he's still going to be a member of the Cleveland Indians rotation this season. However, the arbitration-eligible pitcher has yet to come to terms on a contract with the team for 2014, and the longer it takes to do so, the less likely it is he'll stick around for 2015 and beyond.
Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Cleveland Indians have "shelved" talks with Masterson and his agent as it relates to a multi-year contract. The two sides will instead focus their energies on a compromise one-year deal in the hopes of avoiding a scheduled February 20 arbitration hearing.
"There is a $3.75 million difference between what Masterson is seeking for the 2014 season and what the Indians have offered. It’s the biggest difference among any unsigned player who filed for arbitration this winter," Hoynes writes. "The 6-6, 250-pound Masterson filed at $11.8 million. The Indians countered at $8.05 million. The midpoint is $9.925 million."
Although both sides have said they're open to a long-term relationship, because of the gulf in the current negotiations the chances of some sort of meeting of the minds going forward seems highly unlikely to occur.
Hoynes also suggests that the Indians might be interested in pitcher Scott Baker, who pitched in just three September contests for the Chicago Cubs in 2013. The Cubs don't seem to want him back, but the Seattle Mariners have also reportedly expressed interest in the former 15-game winner.
Tags:Cleveland Indians, Justin Masterson, Scott Baker
Monday Roundup: O's second thoughts
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
2:34
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Despite hitting just .224 in 85 games for the Baltimore Orioles last season, Ryan Flaherty heads towards the spring optimistic that he will be able to win the starting second base job outright.
According to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, Flaherty is the favorite to win the job now that Brian Roberts has signed with the New York Yankees. Flaherty is expected to compete with Jemile Weeks and Jonathan Schoop for the spot in the Baltimore lineup.
"Schoop is more versatile, but if the Orioles envision him as their eventual second baseman, he needs to play the position every day in Norfolk. Weeks' value would increase if he can move around," Kubatko writes.
Here's a recap of some of the other buzz from around the major leagues this Monday afternoon:
David Ortiz: The Boston Red Sox designated hitter would like to finish out his career at Fenway Park, but only if the team is willing to give him a multi-year deal when his current contract expires at the end of the season. If not, Big Papi might be forced to seek employment elsewhere.
Ervin Santana: Where will the free agent pitcher end up for 2014? Although there are many interested suitors, including the Chicago Cubs and potentially the Toronto Blue Jays, one team that might not be picking up the phone is the Seattle Mariners.
Drew Storen: The reliever says that he is not worried about recent trade rumors that surfaced when Grant Balfour's name was linked to the Washington Nationals. He says his name has come up many times since 2011, so he's used to it, and fully expects to pitch for the Nats in 2014.
Jason Kipnis: The second baseman says he is "absolutely open" to talking with the Cleveland Indians about a contract extension, but does not want the situation to become an in-season distraction. Although he won't become a free agent until 2018, without a long-term deal, he would be subject to arbitration every season until that time.
Brandon Beachy: Atlanta Braves beat writer Mark Bowman says that the pitcher, who saw action in only five games last season after recovering from 2012 Tommy John surgery, "will not have any limitations when Spring Training begins. But he says he will pace himself during the camp's early portion."
Chris Nelson: The infielder, who played for three different teams in 2013, is reportedly on the verge of "wrapping up a deal" with the Cincinnati Reds, this according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.
Paul Janish: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the "slick fielding shortstop" has signed a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies and will be invited to big league camp.
Tags:Brandon Beachy, Ryan Flaherty, David Ortiz, Chris Nelson, Jemile Weeks, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Ervin Santana, Drew Storen, Paul Janish
Reds ponder future for Bailey, Chapman
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
1:22
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Cincinnati Reds and Homer Bailey both seem to be optimistic that an agreement will be reached that would avoid the pitcher's 2014 salary being set by an arbitrator. However, although the Reds say they want to keep Bailey in their rotation for the long-term, so far there hasn't been any movement on that front.
"I'm not going to put a timeline on anything," Bailey said. "These are not processes that get done overnight. Last year we did our arbitration four days before we went to the hearing. They had a bunch of guys to sign. I'm not one to rush things and say it has to be done by this type of date. It's not something I want to have to deal with during the season."
The two sides are about $3 million apart for 2014. Bailey could become a free agent after the season if a new deal is not worked out before then. If Bailey were to walk, or perhaps get traded near this year's deadline, there's always the possibility that the Reds could finally decide to convert Aroldis Chapman from their closer to part of their rotation.
C. Trent Rosencrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that manager Bryan Price says the Reds would like to get more than 60 innings out of Aroldis Chapman this season. While Price is likely talking about the potential of using the pitcher in relief stints of more than just one inning at a time, the temptation to use him as a starter is certainly something the new manager has pondered in the past.
"In regards to Aroldis, I was on record last Spring Training that pitchers get better throwing innings, especially pitchers that don't have a lot of innings under their belt or pitchers that struggle to throw strikes or throw their secondary pitches over the plate. I haven't changed that philosophy," Price said shortly after taking over for Dusty Baker.
Tags:Cincinnati Reds, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman
White Sox rotation taking shape
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
12:33
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The Chicago White Sox were one of the teams that tried to woo Masahiro Tanaka to their rotation, but in the end, they fell short of that goal. However, general manager Rick Hahn remains quite optimistic in what he already has on the mound for 2014.
The White Sox are heading into the season with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and John Danks as their top three. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago notes that pitching coach Don Cooper said this weekend that Felipe Paulino has "a real good chance" at making the Chicago White Sox rotation. His station also quoted Cooper as saying that "Erik Johnson is penciled in pretty firmly" already in the starting five.
Doug Padilla of ESPN Chicago writes that the team's optimism in Johnson is part of the reason they weren't all that upset to miss out on Tanaka. "The White Sox could have as many as two rotation spots up for grabs if no roster additions are made in the next two months, but Johnson's focus will remain on the small details while letting the big picture take care of itself."
"The goal is to follow the process and try to work on what I need to work on each day, whether it be fastball, curve, slider, change," Johnson said this weekend. "Whatever they say I need to work on, that’s what I'm going to put my emphasis on."
While Hahn would not confirm anything at the back end of the rotation, he did tell the Chicago Daily Herald that "having the competition between Johnson, Paulino, Andre Rienzo, the kid (Eric) Surkamp we took off waivers from San Francisco and Charlie Leesman, we've got interesting guys with some upside that could help us."
Tags:Chris Sale, John Danks, Jose Quintana, Eric Surkamp, Felipe Paulino, Erik Johnson, Charlie Leesman, Andre Rienzo
Could David Ortiz leave Boston?
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
11:03
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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The 2013 season ended with David Ortiz standing in the middle of Fenway Park with a microphone in his hand, celebrating a World Series victory with the Boston fans for what he infamously had hailed earlier in the year as being "our city." While it's hard to imagine Ortiz ever playing elsewhere, the slugger would not rule it out in a Sunday interview.
Ortiz told a local sports anchor that while he would like to retire as a member of the Boston Red Sox, "as I always keep on telling people, this is a business. Sometimes you've got to do what's best for you and your family. As long as they keep offering me a job and I keep doing what I'm supposed to do and the relationship keeps on building up, I'm going to be there. Hopefully, I won't have to go and wear another uniform."
But, Ortiz added that if he doesn't get offered a long-term deal, it may be "time to move on." Getting a contract that isn't just for one more season is something that is hugely important to Big Papi. According to Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, "Since last season ended, (Ortiz) has expressed his desire in interviews for another extension, but Boston general manager Ben Cherington said the club had not yet entered negotiations and did not seem to consider it a matter of urgency."
Ortiz is in the final year of two-year, $26 million deal and would become a free agent at the end of the season if an extension is not worked out prior to the offseason.
Tags
avid OrtizWith Garza gone, what pitcher is next?
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
10:22
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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After several starts and stops, the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Matt Garza finally announced that they have come to terms on a multi-year contract. According to several sources, the deal is for four seasons, with an option for 2018, that could ultimately earn the pitcher as much as $67 million.
With Garza off the board, Ervin Santana is considered by many to be the best remaining option on the market, and the pitcher reportedly has received interest from several teams. One of those teams, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish is the Chicago Cubs, though he thinks that while it is "not impossible" he could go there, a signing is not likely at this time.
ESPN Insider Eno Sarris thinks that the best fit for Santana might well be north of the border. "The Toronto Blue Jays have to sign a pitcher. It's not a question of desire. They're short a starting pitcher, maybe two ...(and) two potentially elite starting pitchers are available on the free-agent market: Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, and the Blue Jays must make sure at least one of them is toeing the rubber in the Rogers Centre by summer."
Sarris lists Brandon Morrow, J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison as the current candidates for the final three spots in Toronto's rotation behind R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle. His opinion of that collection of arms? "For a roster that looks to be built for the now, it's a grim group of pitchers."
It doesn't look like Santana will end up with the Seattle Mariners. As Greg Johns of MLB.com reports, while general manager Jack Zduriencik said this weekend that he does want to add a No. 3 starter to his rotation, "his answer clearly indicated the club will continue pursuing lower-profile free agents."
"The Mariners just signed former Brewers first-round draft pick Mark Rogers to a minor league deal," said Johns, "and they are believed to be in the running for former Twins starter Scott Baker, who pitched well for the Cubs in the final month last season after returning from Tommy John surgery."
Tags:Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers, Mark Rogers, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Baker, Ervin Santana
Doumit done as a catcher?
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
9:33
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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(UPDATE: On Sunday, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution contacted Ryan Doumit's agent. He said that the comments made by Brian Dozier about his client not wanting to catch anymore were untrue. "If Dozier had been correct," O'Brien writes, "it would sure have been interesting to see what the Braves thought and eventually did about the situation. But as of now, it doesn't seem like the comment was at all accurate.")
Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that while talking with Minnesota Twins infielder Brian Dozier, the second baseman mentioned to him that Ryan Doumit "is 'not catching anymore' after talking it over with his family."
Doumit had suffered a concussion in August after taking a foul tip off his mask while playing behind the plate, and apparently wants to avoid a repeat occurrence at all costs. This news, if true, might come as a bit of a surprise to the Atlanta Braves.
Doumit, who played with the Twins last season, is now with the Braves after a December trade sent him to the team in exchange for pitcher Sean Gilmartin. At the time, most people thought Doumit was being acquired to catch in the event that Evan Gattis struggled handing full-time catcher duties in the post-Brian McCann era. However, if he's not planning to get behind the plate, there's really no place for him to play.
As ESPN.com's Keith Law noted at the time of the deal, "The problem is that Atlanta doesn't have a spot to move (Doumit) to if it decides it can't live with his catching, with first base and all three outfield spots filled. He could end up an expensive bench piece for a team that could use the help but operates on a budget that doesn't allow for that kind of extravagance."
Tags:Ryan Doumit, Evan Gattis
No Rangers return for Young
January, 27, 2014
JAN 27
9:04
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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(UPDATE: According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Michael Young "remains undecided whether he will return for his 15th major league season or retire to spend more time with his three sons." Young said on Sunday that if he does decide to return to the majors this season it's "a safe bet" that he would do so in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform.)
There doesn't seem to be any happy reunion on the horizon for Michael Young and the Texas Rangers, as the American League West team expects to look internally for somebody to fill the role of utility infielder off the bench.
According to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the Rangers had considered making Young an offer earlier this offseason, but don't foresee that happening now. Wilson added that Jon Daniels said that while Young "likely has many opportunities to play," if he chooses retirement the Rangers would like to be part of that announcement.
There's still a chance the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers might come calling, but one other potential suitor could be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have previously had interest in Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland this winter, but as of the moment, seem to be resigned to starting a combination of Gaby Sanchez and Andrew Lambo at first base.
Young could certainly provide some veteran depth at the position, but it remains to be seen if he even wants to play at all in 2014.
Jim Bowden
Five players who benefit from non-moves
"Lambo showed some promise in 2013, crushing 32 home runs with a .932 OPS in Double- and Triple-A, but he had just 30 at-bats during a September call-up. He's a bit old to be considered a "prospect," but multiple pro scouts said me that they believe Lambo has a chance to put up the same type of numbers as Morneau did for the Pirates in 2013. Right now, he's in line to get the bulk of the at-bats for the Pirates at first base."
Tags:Michael Young, Andrew Lambo, Gaby Sanchez
Will Santana return to Minnesota?
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
1:38
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Mike Berardino of St. Paul Pioneer Press reports from TwinsFest that Minnesota Twins general manager Terry Ryan said that left-hander Johan Santana "very much remains" on the team's radar.
"He lives down in Fort Myers, so geographically it makes a lot of sense," Ryan said. "We've had some dialogue with his representation. He's not quite ready to make a decision yet, but we're keeping an eye on him down there. Obviously it would be a good fit for both of us."
Ryan said that the Twins are courting Santana, even though the pitcher won't be ready until sometime in the summer. This statement took ESPN New York's Adam Rubin a bit by surprise because he says Santana's people have always portrayed Johan as expecting to be ready for the beginning of the season.
"Santana is recovering from a second surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. It took him 19 months to get into a major league game again the first time, and this is a rare surgery for a pitcher," Rubin says. So, Ryan's comment that Santana is "not ready to go" is certainly new information being brought to the table that bears watching going forward.
Tags:Minnesota Twins, Johan Santana
Pestano ready to rebound
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
12:22
PM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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In 2012, Cleveland Indians reliever Vinnie Pestano was as reliable as they come, finishing second in the majors with 36 holds on the year. Last season, it all fell apart for Pestano, as he threw so poorly he ended up getting demoted to Triple-A in July.
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, a previously undisclosed injury may have been to blame. He writes that Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway acknowledged that Pestano suffered an elbow injury while pitching for Team USA in the WBC last spring, adding that it was the first such admission from anyone in the organization.
"I think some of that WBC injury really trained his arm to do something different than he's done in the past," Callaway was quoted as saying. "The reason Vinnie was so good in the past, is that he has unorthodox mechanics. When he had a little bit of an injury in the WBC, he started throwing like a normal person, which isn't good."
Callaway said he expects the reliever to regain his 2012 form now that he has had time to fully recover and get back to pitching in the manner that led to his prior success.
Tags:Cleveland Indians, Vinnie Pestano
Sano prepares to have major impact
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
10:32
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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For Minnesota Twins prospect Miguel Sano, the offseason got off to a rocky start when he played in just two games in the Dominican Winter League before getting shut down with a strained ligament in his throwing elbow. However, the third baseman is determined to avoid surgery and show the team he's ready to begin his big league career.
Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Sano fully expects to not only make the Twins opening roster, but insists that he'll have a huge impact on the team this season. "His sore elbow kept him from doing his normal workout for six weeks, so (Sano) put on a few extra pounds. But if his body has gotten bigger this offseason, so have his expectations. Sano may have only 67 games of experience above Class A, but made it clear Saturday in Target Field that he intends to play here this season -- and right away."
Miller says that Sano predicted that he would hit 45 home runs this year -- "Maybe 55, you never know." That's probably more the excitement of youth than boa****l bravado talking, but Sano has received a clean bill of health by team doctors, and with no pain or apparent structural damage to be seen, there's every reason for optimism.
Tags:Minnesota Twins, Miguel Sano
Verlander doesn't think he'll miss time
January, 26, 2014
JAN 26
9:17
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN.com
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Earlier this week, Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski seemed to be hedging on whether or not pitcher Justin Verlander would be recovered enough from his offseason surgery to be able to take the mound for the team by Opening Day.
"I'm not concerned for him being out an extended period," Dombrowski said. "If he misses any time of the season, it would only be a very short time period. I'm not ready to say that he will. But he's doing very well."
On Saturday, after hearing back from Verlander, who was confused as to why those comments seemed to hint he might not be ready to hit the ground running, Dombrowksi clarified the situation. "We anticipate that he will be ready for the start of the season -- and he should be ready. I can't say 100 percent that he will be ready, but I'd be very surprised if he's not," Dombrowski told the Detroit News.
The Tigers open the 2014 season with a three game series at home against the Kansas City Royals beginning on Monday, March 31.
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Tom Verducci:
Baseball's State of the Union: Some Ways to Improve the Game
Baseball's State of the Union: Some Ways to Improve the Game
Baseball's State of the Union: Some ways to improve the game
SI.com
When Koji Uehara struck out Matt Carpenter for the final out of the 2013 World Series, the celebration at Fenway Park that night might well have served as a celebration of everything that is right about baseball today. A year that opened with a passionate international tournament that football could not dream of replicating, the World Baseball Classic, ended with a team, the "Boston Strong" Red Sox, reminding us that the accessibility and everyday companionship of baseball provides larger social import rarely seen in other sports. The 2013 Red Sox joined the 1947 Dodgers, the 1955 Dodgers, the 1968 Tigers, the 2001 Yankees and the 2004 Red Sox among teams with profound civic meaning.
Moreover, by almost any measurable, the business of Major League Baseball is more successful than ever before. New national TV contracts that begin this year soared 102 percent in value. Money from regional sports networks has skyrocketed, with the Dodgers leading the way with a $6 billion deal over 25 years. Attendance remained greater than 30,000 per game for a 10th consecutive year -- extending a run in which every year since steroid testing began (2004-13) has drawn more fans per game than every year of the Steroid Era at its height (1995-2003). Apple named the MLB At Bat app as the highest grossing app for the fifth straight year. Postseason TV viewership was up 20 percent. Labor peace extended through a record 20th straight season.
How flush with money is baseball? Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw just signed the richest contract ever, a seven-year deal that will pay him $30.7 million a year -- or roughly $1 million a start. Big money for stars is one thing. Even more tellingly, a 31-year-old outfielder who never has been an All-Star, Shin-Soo Choo, makes more money ($18.5 million) than Peyton Manning ($18 million).
The champagne corks that popped that October night in Fenway Park, however, were not matched by many at the Park Avenue offices of MLB or the commissioner's office in Milwaukee. Underneath the pride in the sport's financial success is a concern for the game's standing as both an American cultural institution and an entertainment option, particularly for a younger generation of fans bombarded with choice and marching to a louder, faster drumbeat than did their parents.
As President Obama delivers his State of the Union address tonight, he confronts a time when citizens and lawmakers, like boxers heading to their corners, reflexively take diametric positions that make the politics of compromise so difficult. For baseball, the State of the Union is a concern less for where it stands but more for where it may be headed.
"I think we're at an obvious crossroads," Red Sox president Larry Lucchino said, "especially with the change in the leadership in the commissioner's office pending. The next five to seven years will be an important time that offers both challenges and opportunities.
"The aging and graying of baseball's demographics is obviously a concern and has been for several years, but the opportunity it presents is interesting. The world of technology has only partially hit baseball and it's going to change a lot of things, as it has in every industry it has touched. How baseball adapts to that and utilizes technology is a major challenge going forward."
Said agent Scott Boras, "We are stepping out of one era and advancing into a new one. What we do have is fresh content seven days a week for eight months. We offer a dynamic that is seven times that of the NFL. The question is, how do we get the next generation?"
Commissioner Bud Selig has said repeatedly that he will retire when his contract ends on Jan. 24, 2015. He turns 80 in July. Some owners still believe Selig will sign another two-year extension. Others believe he will hand-pick his successor from within baseball. Almost none of them believe an outsider has much of a chance.
The challenge for the next commissioner is obvious if not delicate: How much do you change a sport that prides itself on timelessness? The adoption of instant replay and the abolishment of home-plate collisions this year is a start. Baseball must consider changes to the way it looks, the way it is marketed, even the way it is played. Running baseball these days is like wrapping yourself in a luxurious down comforter in a house with no heat: the TV money is the comforter that provides the warm feeling, but sooner or later you have to get around to fixing the furnace.
"My sense is we already [messed up] our place in the national consciousness," said a high-ranking NL executive. "The only thing that has saved us is the DVR. When the DVR was invented it put a premium on live daily content, which became the only thing where commercials were still relevant. That sole fact is responsible for an $8 billion business. If it weren't for that, baseball players wouldn't make three times what football players make."
Baseball players earn averages of $3.2 million a year and $17.9 million in a career -- or 68% more than football players per year ($1.9 million) and 167% more over their average career ($6.7 million). If live content is king in the DVR age, the kingdom of baseball is enormous. Baseball plays more games by the third week of April than the NFL does in its entire season, postseason included.
Conversely, the huge quantity of all that live content -- the stuff advertisers love because people don't time shift it so they can zap through the commercials -- erodes the "event" feel of baseball in a society that places increased premium on "events." Even the World Series has lost some luster as an event, in part because of interleague play and especially because of the increased popularity of college and pro football.
Last season baseball staged 29 playoff games in a 30-day span. The Wild Card games, which began in 2012, have been a hit because their win-or-go home dynamic creates an "event" feel. Last year the two Wild Card games drew more viewers than all 14 non-clinching League Division Series Games.
By the time casual fans get to the World Series, having been asked to watch a month's worth of important three-and-a-half hour games -- and with NFL betting pools and fantasy leagues in full swing by then -- they need a Game 7 to become truly enthralled. And that's where MLB has been unlucky. There has been only one World Series Game 7 in the past 11 years -- the first such drought in the history of the Fall Classic. (The last Game 7, in 2011, is the highest-rated game among the 55 World Series games played since the championship-starved Red Sox won in 2004.) In contrast, from 1985-91, in the golden age of baseball network viewership, baseball staged four Game 7s in seven years.
The apex of World Series viewing was Game 7 of the 1986 World Series between the Red Sox and Mets, which drew a 38.9 rating and a 55 percent share while up against Monday Night Football. The broadcast environment has changed too much since then for a direct comparison to be applicable (for instance, the rise of cable and streaming and on-demand content). Options for an entertainment-obsessed society have multiplied.
Even considering those caveats, however, what concerns baseball is that it has lost ground to basketball and with young viewers. In 1986, the World Series did twice the rating of the NBA Finals (28.6-14.1). Last year the NBA Finals out-rated the World Series for the fourth time in the past five years (10.5-8.9).
The aging of the baseball audience is obvious. The median viewer age for the World Series clincher was 53; for the NBA Finals clincher it was 40. According to Sports Media Watch, among 18-34 viewers, more women watched Game 6 of the NBA Finals than men watched Game 6 of the World Series. The NBA Finals, which benefits from King Football being dormant in June, attracted more than twice as many 34-and-under viewers (10.83 million) as did the World Series (4.68 million).
Still, when Harris Poll asked sports fans last December to identify their favorite sport, more than twice as many people picked baseball over pro basketball -- 14 percent to six percent. (Pro football led the way with 35 percent.) The poll found baseball's appeal was particularly strong among Hispanics, households with income greater than $100,000 and with suburbanites, and particularly weak among African-Americans, people who live in rural areas and "Echo Boomers," a.k.a. young viewers.
Baseball's loss of young viewers in the postseason typically is blamed on late start times and long games, but those popular theories hold little truth. The 1986 World Series, for instance, had later start times than the 2013 World Series and had the exact same average time of game (3:20). Among the 29 playoff games last year, the seven lowest-rated games all started at 6 p.m. or earlier. It's an established fact: if you put the games on earlier fewer people will watch.
What has hurt baseball's younger viewership may be more about how culture changed. Many of the qualities associated with baseball are less valued in today's society than they were in 1986, qualities such as teamwork, humility, patience, pensiveness, perseverance, and strategizing. The qualities that have gained in cultural value are not associated with baseball, such as self-promotion, entrepreneurship, violence, action, noise and gambling. In 1986 people bought albums, read books and watched network TV; now they buy songs, read tweets and watch video on their phones.
You could see an example of this cultural shift to the faster and louder -- essentially, away from baseball and toward football -- in how Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander reacted to the ravings of Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman after the NFC title game: Sherman, he said, would get a pitch toward his head if he ever tried that kind of self-promotion in baseball. In football, where simply doing your job invites over-the-top self-congratulation, Sherman only became more popular.
(You can add performance-enhancing drugs to this shift in sporting values, too. Since 2006, the NFL has had 172 percent more PED suspensions than baseball, 87-32, and yet baseball, with the far better testing program, is mentioned far more often as the sport with the drug "problem.")
Exciting young baseball players such as Bryce Harper, Jose Fernandez and Yasiel Puig have been castigated for not "acting the right way," which typically means tamping personality. Meanwhile, sports fans are flocking to "personalities" in other sports, be they aspirational or notorious; as in the reality TV genre, value judgments on character are no longer necessarily applicable to popularity. It's unheard of to find a baseball player in popular culture today (commercials, movies, TV, etc.) with a speaking role out of uniform, as athletes such as Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, LeBron James and Dale Earnhardt Jr. regularly do.
"The one thing we have to change is this idea about 'playing the game the way it ought to be played,'" said one senior MLB executive. "I'm not talking about showing up the opponent. I'm talking about showing genuine emotion -- like Shane Victorino in the World Series. The 18-34 [viewer] is used to seeing celebrations and exhibits of passion. In baseball, that's not allowed. Remember when Matt Harvey was criticized for doing too many TV appearances? We have to move away from that."
As society speeds up, baseball is slowing down. Last year produced the lowest batting average in the major leagues since the designated hitter was adopted 40 years ago. Runs per game sunk to its lowest level since 1992. Meanwhile, strikeouts hit a record high for an eighth straight year.
Baseball has seen a perfect storm develop for run prevention. There are more good pitchers than ever before while average velocity is increasing and while the increase in information and data, because of how it affects scouting and the alignment of defenders, heavily favors defense. The net result is more games with more pitching changes and more strikeouts and fewer runs. Translation: it takes longer for less to happen. Last year more than one out of every four plate appearances ended without the ball being put into play -- strikeouts and walks accounted for 28 percent of the game, with the raw numbers for such non-contact plays having increased by 10 percent in 10 years.
"The ball not being in play is a huge thing," said an NL executive. "The game is fundamentally different than it was 50 years ago."
Here's a quick way to measure how it takes more and more pitches and more and more pitchers to produce fewer and fewer runs. It's a look at the rate of strikeouts, the number of pitching changes per game (PC) and the total runs per game in the 40 years since the adoption of the DH, taken in snapshots 10 years apart:
Year/Strikeouts/Pitching Changes/Runs per Game
2013 19.86% 5.90 8.34
2003 16.43% 5.33 9.46
1993 16.97% 4.54 9.20
1983 13.52% 3.21 8.62
1973 13.68% 2.74 8.42
There is no evidence that the rates of strikeouts and pitching changes are slowing. Said one owner, "The game is a fantastically appealing game in part because of the daily-ness, the randomness and the complexity, but it's going to have to change. The NFL has a Competition Committee that is changing the rules every year. Baseball embraces and celebrates its history, but it has to make adjustments, too. And people will not find it an abomination. We did it a little this year with replay. These changes should be looked at with greater enthusiasm rather than resignation."
The NFL radically has changed how pro football is played. It sells quarterbacks the way Hollywood sells leading actors, and continually changes the rules to keep these stars healthy and make them look better. Completing a pass has never been easier. With hardly anyone bothering to notice what it did to the history books, the NFL this year set all-time records for completions, pass attempts, percentage of passes completed, total yards and points. Of the top 12 quarterbacks all time as ranked by passing yards per game, 10 of them are active.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell rather casually floated the idea recently of changing the very fundamental scoring rules of the sport -- doing away with the extra point and re-valuing a touchdown as seven points -- and caused barely a ripple of concern. The NFL uses pencil and paper, not stone tablets, to write its rules. Almost nobody thinks this is a bad thing that the NFL has little historical consistency.
Baseball, because there is a kind of tyranny in its statistics, does not enjoy a similar freedom. To be fair, Selig has modernized the game in many ways. Since 1997 baseball has instituted interleague play, increased revenue sharing, the toughest steroid testing program in American sports, replay on boundary calls, World Series homefield advantage to the league that wins the All-Star Game, realignment, a second wild card in each league and now expanded replay. But none of those changes have addressed the conundrum of how the game is taking longer to produce less action while the pace of popular culture has quickened.
What kind of changes may be next? What follows are some ideas that could at least be starting points for healthy discussions. Keep in mind that changes in baseball come slowly and incrementally, so the idea of implementing all of them, or even most of them, any time soon is not realistic. Consider these as conversation starters:
• The Bonus Batter. I proposed this idea last October. Each manager each game gets to pick one at-bat when he can send any batter to the plate -- including somebody already in the lineup -- to bat for someone else without having to lose the player who gives up the at-bat. The idea is to get the stars of the game to the plate in the biggest moments and, if the manager picks the right spot, a situation where he can't be walked. It also adds tension and strategy to the game.
Sounds crazy? People thought the same thing in 1973 about the idea of designating one player to do nothing but hit.
• The Summer Game. It makes no sense that in one of the few windows when baseball has the sports calendar to itself -- the All-Star break in July -- it goes dark for two nights after the All-Star Game. It needs an "event." It should schedule one game for the Thursday after the All-Star Game, bill it as The Summer Game, and play it at an iconic American venue, such as the foothills near Mount Rushmore, the mall in Washington D.C., the Field of Dreams field in Iowa, Doubleday Field in Cooperstown, N.Y., the Rose Bowl, Michigan Stadium, TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Neb., etc. In some cases you may need to build a temporary field and compromise on attendance and dimensions, but you're talking about one regular season game out of 2,430 that is visually stunning, brings Major League Baseball to a place it never has been before, appeals to the "event" appetite of demanding sports viewers, and underscores baseball's unique place in Americana.
• Bracket-style Home Run Derby. The current format is tedious and uninspired. Do away with "rounds" of hitting. Select the 16 most high-profile sluggers and let them go at it bracket-style. (Can you say "office pool?") How about Harper going head-to-head against Mike Trout? Winner advances, loser is knocked out. Think you might want to watch that?
• Best-of-five LCS. The inventory of non-clinching postseason games has grown while attracting smaller audiences. A best-of-five LCS (the way it was from 1969-84) pumps more urgency into the postseason and lifts the profile of the World Series, which becomes the only best-of-seven round instead of just another round.
• A neutral site World Series. Boras is a proponent of creating a Super Bowl-style World Series Weekend. At a predetermined warm-weather site, hold an awards gala on Friday night, in which the top awards are announced, followed by Games 1 and 2 of the World Series the next two nights. The series then would be hosted in a 2-2-1 format by the league champions. The down side: one team would not get a World Series home game in the event of a sweep. A possible workaround to that problem is to play only one game at the neutral site or adopt a best-of-nine format with no off days.
"I'm big on the World Series being a planned event," Boras said. "The problem with World Series ratings right now is that they are regional."
• Fund college baseball. "Baseball literally has billions of dollars set aside, and for what?" said one club executive. "What they should and can do tomorrow is to fund scholarships for college programs."
Baseball programs are allowed a maximum of only 11.7 scholarships. Full rides are almost unheard of. Basketball and football typically pay the full cost of college for elite players, thus providing a major incentive for the multi-sport athlete to chose those sports over baseball.
• Install a pitch clock. Baseball has tried for 20 years to improve the pace of games, but without an actual clock it never will happen. The rulebook states that a pitcher should deliver a pitch within 12 seconds when the bases are empty. It's the most abused rule in the book. The average time between pitches is about 19 seconds with the bases empty and 27 seconds with runners on.
• Limit timeouts. Baseball is the only sport where teams get an unlimited number of timeouts. The number of mound conferences between the catcher and pitcher has become absurd. If the manager and pitching coach are limited in their trips to the mound (a second in the same inning requires the removal of the pitcher), so should the catcher.
• Limit pitching changes. A rule already exists: a pitcher has to face one batter. But what if he had to obtain one out before he could be removed? Or, if you gave a manager an allowance of only one mid-inning change per inning, what if he had to finish the inning?
• Start every batter with a 1-and-1 count. This is too radical for my tastes. You essentially would be changing strikeouts to two strikes and walks to three balls. This is a common tactic for amateur coaches in scrimmages to improve the pace of play to get more repetitions for hitters, pitchers and fielders -- and it does work toward creating a faster game. I just don't believe baseball requires something this drastic.
It's worth remembering that baseball is a thriving business. More people consume baseball in more ways than ever before. No other sport provides fans, especially families, with a better (and cheaper) in-person experience than baseball, where the ballpark itself, the outdoor air and the impulse to gather as a community are part of the unique attraction. And as the American population continues to age, baseball's strong loyalty from an older demographic may not be a bad thing.
But what happens as this young generation of discriminating viewers ages, the viewers occupied by football who don't watch the World Series unless their favorite team is playing or unless there is a Game 7? Will they turn to baseball as they age and their lives slow down? Or does the lack of an emotional connection to baseball in their youth keep them forever apart from the sport? No one can be sure of that answer, not in these unprecedented times when culture changes so quickly and when entertainment choices grow so abundant. In such uncertain times, the greatest risk to take may be not taking one at all.
SI.com
When Koji Uehara struck out Matt Carpenter for the final out of the 2013 World Series, the celebration at Fenway Park that night might well have served as a celebration of everything that is right about baseball today. A year that opened with a passionate international tournament that football could not dream of replicating, the World Baseball Classic, ended with a team, the "Boston Strong" Red Sox, reminding us that the accessibility and everyday companionship of baseball provides larger social import rarely seen in other sports. The 2013 Red Sox joined the 1947 Dodgers, the 1955 Dodgers, the 1968 Tigers, the 2001 Yankees and the 2004 Red Sox among teams with profound civic meaning.
Moreover, by almost any measurable, the business of Major League Baseball is more successful than ever before. New national TV contracts that begin this year soared 102 percent in value. Money from regional sports networks has skyrocketed, with the Dodgers leading the way with a $6 billion deal over 25 years. Attendance remained greater than 30,000 per game for a 10th consecutive year -- extending a run in which every year since steroid testing began (2004-13) has drawn more fans per game than every year of the Steroid Era at its height (1995-2003). Apple named the MLB At Bat app as the highest grossing app for the fifth straight year. Postseason TV viewership was up 20 percent. Labor peace extended through a record 20th straight season.
How flush with money is baseball? Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw just signed the richest contract ever, a seven-year deal that will pay him $30.7 million a year -- or roughly $1 million a start. Big money for stars is one thing. Even more tellingly, a 31-year-old outfielder who never has been an All-Star, Shin-Soo Choo, makes more money ($18.5 million) than Peyton Manning ($18 million).
The champagne corks that popped that October night in Fenway Park, however, were not matched by many at the Park Avenue offices of MLB or the commissioner's office in Milwaukee. Underneath the pride in the sport's financial success is a concern for the game's standing as both an American cultural institution and an entertainment option, particularly for a younger generation of fans bombarded with choice and marching to a louder, faster drumbeat than did their parents.
As President Obama delivers his State of the Union address tonight, he confronts a time when citizens and lawmakers, like boxers heading to their corners, reflexively take diametric positions that make the politics of compromise so difficult. For baseball, the State of the Union is a concern less for where it stands but more for where it may be headed.
"I think we're at an obvious crossroads," Red Sox president Larry Lucchino said, "especially with the change in the leadership in the commissioner's office pending. The next five to seven years will be an important time that offers both challenges and opportunities.
"The aging and graying of baseball's demographics is obviously a concern and has been for several years, but the opportunity it presents is interesting. The world of technology has only partially hit baseball and it's going to change a lot of things, as it has in every industry it has touched. How baseball adapts to that and utilizes technology is a major challenge going forward."
Said agent Scott Boras, "We are stepping out of one era and advancing into a new one. What we do have is fresh content seven days a week for eight months. We offer a dynamic that is seven times that of the NFL. The question is, how do we get the next generation?"
Commissioner Bud Selig has said repeatedly that he will retire when his contract ends on Jan. 24, 2015. He turns 80 in July. Some owners still believe Selig will sign another two-year extension. Others believe he will hand-pick his successor from within baseball. Almost none of them believe an outsider has much of a chance.
The challenge for the next commissioner is obvious if not delicate: How much do you change a sport that prides itself on timelessness? The adoption of instant replay and the abolishment of home-plate collisions this year is a start. Baseball must consider changes to the way it looks, the way it is marketed, even the way it is played. Running baseball these days is like wrapping yourself in a luxurious down comforter in a house with no heat: the TV money is the comforter that provides the warm feeling, but sooner or later you have to get around to fixing the furnace.
"My sense is we already [messed up] our place in the national consciousness," said a high-ranking NL executive. "The only thing that has saved us is the DVR. When the DVR was invented it put a premium on live daily content, which became the only thing where commercials were still relevant. That sole fact is responsible for an $8 billion business. If it weren't for that, baseball players wouldn't make three times what football players make."
Baseball players earn averages of $3.2 million a year and $17.9 million in a career -- or 68% more than football players per year ($1.9 million) and 167% more over their average career ($6.7 million). If live content is king in the DVR age, the kingdom of baseball is enormous. Baseball plays more games by the third week of April than the NFL does in its entire season, postseason included.
Conversely, the huge quantity of all that live content -- the stuff advertisers love because people don't time shift it so they can zap through the commercials -- erodes the "event" feel of baseball in a society that places increased premium on "events." Even the World Series has lost some luster as an event, in part because of interleague play and especially because of the increased popularity of college and pro football.
Last season baseball staged 29 playoff games in a 30-day span. The Wild Card games, which began in 2012, have been a hit because their win-or-go home dynamic creates an "event" feel. Last year the two Wild Card games drew more viewers than all 14 non-clinching League Division Series Games.
By the time casual fans get to the World Series, having been asked to watch a month's worth of important three-and-a-half hour games -- and with NFL betting pools and fantasy leagues in full swing by then -- they need a Game 7 to become truly enthralled. And that's where MLB has been unlucky. There has been only one World Series Game 7 in the past 11 years -- the first such drought in the history of the Fall Classic. (The last Game 7, in 2011, is the highest-rated game among the 55 World Series games played since the championship-starved Red Sox won in 2004.) In contrast, from 1985-91, in the golden age of baseball network viewership, baseball staged four Game 7s in seven years.
The apex of World Series viewing was Game 7 of the 1986 World Series between the Red Sox and Mets, which drew a 38.9 rating and a 55 percent share while up against Monday Night Football. The broadcast environment has changed too much since then for a direct comparison to be applicable (for instance, the rise of cable and streaming and on-demand content). Options for an entertainment-obsessed society have multiplied.
Even considering those caveats, however, what concerns baseball is that it has lost ground to basketball and with young viewers. In 1986, the World Series did twice the rating of the NBA Finals (28.6-14.1). Last year the NBA Finals out-rated the World Series for the fourth time in the past five years (10.5-8.9).
The aging of the baseball audience is obvious. The median viewer age for the World Series clincher was 53; for the NBA Finals clincher it was 40. According to Sports Media Watch, among 18-34 viewers, more women watched Game 6 of the NBA Finals than men watched Game 6 of the World Series. The NBA Finals, which benefits from King Football being dormant in June, attracted more than twice as many 34-and-under viewers (10.83 million) as did the World Series (4.68 million).
Still, when Harris Poll asked sports fans last December to identify their favorite sport, more than twice as many people picked baseball over pro basketball -- 14 percent to six percent. (Pro football led the way with 35 percent.) The poll found baseball's appeal was particularly strong among Hispanics, households with income greater than $100,000 and with suburbanites, and particularly weak among African-Americans, people who live in rural areas and "Echo Boomers," a.k.a. young viewers.
Baseball's loss of young viewers in the postseason typically is blamed on late start times and long games, but those popular theories hold little truth. The 1986 World Series, for instance, had later start times than the 2013 World Series and had the exact same average time of game (3:20). Among the 29 playoff games last year, the seven lowest-rated games all started at 6 p.m. or earlier. It's an established fact: if you put the games on earlier fewer people will watch.
What has hurt baseball's younger viewership may be more about how culture changed. Many of the qualities associated with baseball are less valued in today's society than they were in 1986, qualities such as teamwork, humility, patience, pensiveness, perseverance, and strategizing. The qualities that have gained in cultural value are not associated with baseball, such as self-promotion, entrepreneurship, violence, action, noise and gambling. In 1986 people bought albums, read books and watched network TV; now they buy songs, read tweets and watch video on their phones.
You could see an example of this cultural shift to the faster and louder -- essentially, away from baseball and toward football -- in how Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander reacted to the ravings of Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman after the NFC title game: Sherman, he said, would get a pitch toward his head if he ever tried that kind of self-promotion in baseball. In football, where simply doing your job invites over-the-top self-congratulation, Sherman only became more popular.
(You can add performance-enhancing drugs to this shift in sporting values, too. Since 2006, the NFL has had 172 percent more PED suspensions than baseball, 87-32, and yet baseball, with the far better testing program, is mentioned far more often as the sport with the drug "problem.")
Exciting young baseball players such as Bryce Harper, Jose Fernandez and Yasiel Puig have been castigated for not "acting the right way," which typically means tamping personality. Meanwhile, sports fans are flocking to "personalities" in other sports, be they aspirational or notorious; as in the reality TV genre, value judgments on character are no longer necessarily applicable to popularity. It's unheard of to find a baseball player in popular culture today (commercials, movies, TV, etc.) with a speaking role out of uniform, as athletes such as Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, LeBron James and Dale Earnhardt Jr. regularly do.
"The one thing we have to change is this idea about 'playing the game the way it ought to be played,'" said one senior MLB executive. "I'm not talking about showing up the opponent. I'm talking about showing genuine emotion -- like Shane Victorino in the World Series. The 18-34 [viewer] is used to seeing celebrations and exhibits of passion. In baseball, that's not allowed. Remember when Matt Harvey was criticized for doing too many TV appearances? We have to move away from that."
As society speeds up, baseball is slowing down. Last year produced the lowest batting average in the major leagues since the designated hitter was adopted 40 years ago. Runs per game sunk to its lowest level since 1992. Meanwhile, strikeouts hit a record high for an eighth straight year.
Baseball has seen a perfect storm develop for run prevention. There are more good pitchers than ever before while average velocity is increasing and while the increase in information and data, because of how it affects scouting and the alignment of defenders, heavily favors defense. The net result is more games with more pitching changes and more strikeouts and fewer runs. Translation: it takes longer for less to happen. Last year more than one out of every four plate appearances ended without the ball being put into play -- strikeouts and walks accounted for 28 percent of the game, with the raw numbers for such non-contact plays having increased by 10 percent in 10 years.
"The ball not being in play is a huge thing," said an NL executive. "The game is fundamentally different than it was 50 years ago."
Here's a quick way to measure how it takes more and more pitches and more and more pitchers to produce fewer and fewer runs. It's a look at the rate of strikeouts, the number of pitching changes per game (PC) and the total runs per game in the 40 years since the adoption of the DH, taken in snapshots 10 years apart:
Year/Strikeouts/Pitching Changes/Runs per Game
2013 19.86% 5.90 8.34
2003 16.43% 5.33 9.46
1993 16.97% 4.54 9.20
1983 13.52% 3.21 8.62
1973 13.68% 2.74 8.42
There is no evidence that the rates of strikeouts and pitching changes are slowing. Said one owner, "The game is a fantastically appealing game in part because of the daily-ness, the randomness and the complexity, but it's going to have to change. The NFL has a Competition Committee that is changing the rules every year. Baseball embraces and celebrates its history, but it has to make adjustments, too. And people will not find it an abomination. We did it a little this year with replay. These changes should be looked at with greater enthusiasm rather than resignation."
The NFL radically has changed how pro football is played. It sells quarterbacks the way Hollywood sells leading actors, and continually changes the rules to keep these stars healthy and make them look better. Completing a pass has never been easier. With hardly anyone bothering to notice what it did to the history books, the NFL this year set all-time records for completions, pass attempts, percentage of passes completed, total yards and points. Of the top 12 quarterbacks all time as ranked by passing yards per game, 10 of them are active.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell rather casually floated the idea recently of changing the very fundamental scoring rules of the sport -- doing away with the extra point and re-valuing a touchdown as seven points -- and caused barely a ripple of concern. The NFL uses pencil and paper, not stone tablets, to write its rules. Almost nobody thinks this is a bad thing that the NFL has little historical consistency.
Baseball, because there is a kind of tyranny in its statistics, does not enjoy a similar freedom. To be fair, Selig has modernized the game in many ways. Since 1997 baseball has instituted interleague play, increased revenue sharing, the toughest steroid testing program in American sports, replay on boundary calls, World Series homefield advantage to the league that wins the All-Star Game, realignment, a second wild card in each league and now expanded replay. But none of those changes have addressed the conundrum of how the game is taking longer to produce less action while the pace of popular culture has quickened.
What kind of changes may be next? What follows are some ideas that could at least be starting points for healthy discussions. Keep in mind that changes in baseball come slowly and incrementally, so the idea of implementing all of them, or even most of them, any time soon is not realistic. Consider these as conversation starters:
• The Bonus Batter. I proposed this idea last October. Each manager each game gets to pick one at-bat when he can send any batter to the plate -- including somebody already in the lineup -- to bat for someone else without having to lose the player who gives up the at-bat. The idea is to get the stars of the game to the plate in the biggest moments and, if the manager picks the right spot, a situation where he can't be walked. It also adds tension and strategy to the game.
Sounds crazy? People thought the same thing in 1973 about the idea of designating one player to do nothing but hit.
• The Summer Game. It makes no sense that in one of the few windows when baseball has the sports calendar to itself -- the All-Star break in July -- it goes dark for two nights after the All-Star Game. It needs an "event." It should schedule one game for the Thursday after the All-Star Game, bill it as The Summer Game, and play it at an iconic American venue, such as the foothills near Mount Rushmore, the mall in Washington D.C., the Field of Dreams field in Iowa, Doubleday Field in Cooperstown, N.Y., the Rose Bowl, Michigan Stadium, TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Neb., etc. In some cases you may need to build a temporary field and compromise on attendance and dimensions, but you're talking about one regular season game out of 2,430 that is visually stunning, brings Major League Baseball to a place it never has been before, appeals to the "event" appetite of demanding sports viewers, and underscores baseball's unique place in Americana.
• Bracket-style Home Run Derby. The current format is tedious and uninspired. Do away with "rounds" of hitting. Select the 16 most high-profile sluggers and let them go at it bracket-style. (Can you say "office pool?") How about Harper going head-to-head against Mike Trout? Winner advances, loser is knocked out. Think you might want to watch that?
• Best-of-five LCS. The inventory of non-clinching postseason games has grown while attracting smaller audiences. A best-of-five LCS (the way it was from 1969-84) pumps more urgency into the postseason and lifts the profile of the World Series, which becomes the only best-of-seven round instead of just another round.
• A neutral site World Series. Boras is a proponent of creating a Super Bowl-style World Series Weekend. At a predetermined warm-weather site, hold an awards gala on Friday night, in which the top awards are announced, followed by Games 1 and 2 of the World Series the next two nights. The series then would be hosted in a 2-2-1 format by the league champions. The down side: one team would not get a World Series home game in the event of a sweep. A possible workaround to that problem is to play only one game at the neutral site or adopt a best-of-nine format with no off days.
"I'm big on the World Series being a planned event," Boras said. "The problem with World Series ratings right now is that they are regional."
• Fund college baseball. "Baseball literally has billions of dollars set aside, and for what?" said one club executive. "What they should and can do tomorrow is to fund scholarships for college programs."
Baseball programs are allowed a maximum of only 11.7 scholarships. Full rides are almost unheard of. Basketball and football typically pay the full cost of college for elite players, thus providing a major incentive for the multi-sport athlete to chose those sports over baseball.
• Install a pitch clock. Baseball has tried for 20 years to improve the pace of games, but without an actual clock it never will happen. The rulebook states that a pitcher should deliver a pitch within 12 seconds when the bases are empty. It's the most abused rule in the book. The average time between pitches is about 19 seconds with the bases empty and 27 seconds with runners on.
• Limit timeouts. Baseball is the only sport where teams get an unlimited number of timeouts. The number of mound conferences between the catcher and pitcher has become absurd. If the manager and pitching coach are limited in their trips to the mound (a second in the same inning requires the removal of the pitcher), so should the catcher.
• Limit pitching changes. A rule already exists: a pitcher has to face one batter. But what if he had to obtain one out before he could be removed? Or, if you gave a manager an allowance of only one mid-inning change per inning, what if he had to finish the inning?
• Start every batter with a 1-and-1 count. This is too radical for my tastes. You essentially would be changing strikeouts to two strikes and walks to three balls. This is a common tactic for amateur coaches in scrimmages to improve the pace of play to get more repetitions for hitters, pitchers and fielders -- and it does work toward creating a faster game. I just don't believe baseball requires something this drastic.
It's worth remembering that baseball is a thriving business. More people consume baseball in more ways than ever before. No other sport provides fans, especially families, with a better (and cheaper) in-person experience than baseball, where the ballpark itself, the outdoor air and the impulse to gather as a community are part of the unique attraction. And as the American population continues to age, baseball's strong loyalty from an older demographic may not be a bad thing.
But what happens as this young generation of discriminating viewers ages, the viewers occupied by football who don't watch the World Series unless their favorite team is playing or unless there is a Game 7? Will they turn to baseball as they age and their lives slow down? Or does the lack of an emotional connection to baseball in their youth keep them forever apart from the sport? No one can be sure of that answer, not in these unprecedented times when culture changes so quickly and when entertainment choices grow so abundant. In such uncertain times, the greatest risk to take may be not taking one at all.
lightweight champion
Banned
- 13,481
- 5,271
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2007
So the Brew crew just giving away money, lack a playoff roster, and their farm system is the worst in the majors? That fanbase is totally effed.
Top 100 Prospects (#1-#50).
Top 100 Prospects (#51-#100).
Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2014 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.
This is my seventh such ranking for Insider, with a lot of movement within the list from last year's but many of the same names still present. Six of last year's top 10 players are still on the list, and only 13 of last year's top 50 lost their eligibility for 2014. The list is heavy on position players up the middle, including shortstops near the top of the list and many potential everyday catchers further down. First base is extremely weak, and the pitching talent in the minors is still skewed heavily toward right-handed arms.
The Guidelines
Law's prospect rankings
Jan. 28: Farm system rankings
HOU No. 1 | MIN close | Luhnow
Jan. 29: Top 100 prospects
No. 1-50 | 51-100 | Law chat Jan. 30: AL East top 10s | ALC | ALW
Jan. 31: NL East top 10s | NLC | NLW
• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1. That means St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is ineligible, based on his days on the 25-man roster.
• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
• I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Masahiro Tanaka this year (among others). I've also excluded Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, as he's already 27 years old, too old for a list that by design is comprised of players who are almost all 22 and under.
• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Carlos Gomez is an 80 defender. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 in 2013. An "ineligible" player was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.
Top 100 index | No. 1-50 | No. 51-100
1Byron Buxton, CF
AGE: 20DOB: 12/18/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 189
AVG: .334OBP: .424OPS: .944HR: 12SB: 55
The best player available in the 2012 amateur draft turned out to be even better than expected in his first full year of pro ball, showing off four plus tools right away with a solid approach befitting his status as an older high school senior last spring.
Buxton is an outstanding athlete, like a 20-year-old Eric Davis with a grade-70 arm in center, among the fastest runners you will ever see on a baseball field and with the potential to grow into power in time. He's always had very quick wrists, but the Twins have done a great job of smoothing out Buxton's swing; he's more balanced through contact and already has more power because he keeps his back foot in contact with the ground so he gets more loft in his swing.
Buxton's instincts in the field were evident in high school, but he's proven to be a more advanced hitter than anyone anticipated, given his relatively advanced age for a high school draftee (more than 18 1/2 years old on draft day) and experience playing against mediocre prep competition in rural Georgia. He's comfortable running deep counts and recognizes balls and strikes well already, although his recognition of off-speed stuff lags a little behind that. This combination of quick-twitch actions with size and feel for the game is extremely unusual, something we see only once a decade or so.
Buxton could be the next 20-homer/50-stolen base player, with high averages and OBPs and great defense in center, which would make him a perennial MVP candidate for the Twins for years.
Top level: High Class A (Ft. Myers) | 2013 rank: 22
2Xander Bogaerts, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 10/1/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 185
AVG: .297OBP: .388OPS: .865HR: 15SB: 7
For all of Bogaerts' tools -- and he has many -- it was his patient approach at the plate that stood out in the Aruban's brief major league stint in 2013. Bogaerts has explosive potential as a hitter, as the ball comes off his bat exceptionally well, and the fact he sees the ball so well and makes good decisions as a hitter bodes well for his ability to adjust to major league pitching if he's handed an everyday job in 2014.
He has quick and very strong hands at the plate, with moderate hip rotation that still projects to plus power because of the speed and force of his swing. He's a natural shortstop, with soft hands and very good actions as well as plenty of arm for the left side of the infield. Although his frame could allow him to get too big for the position, he's maintained his conditioning well enough to stay at short for the near future, and the possibility of a 25- to 30-homer bat with strong on-base skills at that position gives Boston strong incentive to leave him there.
He could be Troy Tulowitzki with a little less arm, and that's an MVP-caliber player.
Top level: Majors (Boston) | 2013 rank: 5
3Addison Russell, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 1/23/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 195
AVG: .269OBP: .369OPS: .865HR: 17SB: 21
One of the best pure hitters in the minors, Russell is an incredibly gifted player who has a mature approach at the plate and some of the softest hands you'll ever see in the field.
Once a muscled-up third baseman, Russell dropped more than 20 pounds before his senior year of high school because he wanted to prove to scouts he could stay at shortstop, a decision that has worked out in every respect and also reflects his work ethic and humility as a ballplayer.
He has a simple, fluid right-handed swing with some loft through his finish to generate line drives; his bat speed is so good and the contact he makes is so hard that I still see more power in the future for him, 15-20 homers a year, if not more. In the field, he has the hands to be an elite shortstop and his actions are fine, with only his feet lagging slightly because he doesn't have the first-step quickness of traditional shortstops. He has plenty of arm for short or third and has shown he can take instruction well enough that no one is seriously talking about him moving to another position.
He had a slow start for high Class A Stockton in 2013, but from June 1 until his promotion to Triple-A, he hit .319/.421/.578 in 299 plate appearances as one of the youngest regulars in the California League. If the A's wanted to make him their everyday shortstop in 2014, it wouldn't be that far-fetched an idea. His hands and his eye are ready to play; his aptitude for the game is so good that the bat will catch up.
Top level: Triple-A (Sacramento) | 2013 rank: 10
4Carlos Correa, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 9/22/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
AVG: .320OBP: .405OPS: .872HR: 9SB: 10
Correa played the whole year at 18 in the low Class A Midwest League, one of the youngest regulars in any full-season circuit, and after a rough April, blew everyone away with his combination of physical potential and on-field acumen.
He hit .338/.410/.479 after an early-May DL stint caused by a pitch taken off the wrist, improving his approach at the plate as the season went on, and making far more contact than you'd expect of a player his age in his first year of pro ball -- he ranked above the league median in strikeout rate even with the bad start to his season.
Correa is a big kid, already 6-foot-4 and more than 200 pounds, likely on his way to 220 or so, which will push the boundaries of what typically plays at shortstop in the majors. But he's very athletic for his size, with solid footwork and a 70-grade arm. The tradeoff with his size will be power, as he already shows plenty of raw power and could end up in the 25-30 homer range.
He's got a quiet approach, short to the ball with great hand acceleration, moderately rotational, producing more line drives now than big flies but with the hand-eye coordination to do so down the road. Other than a lack of speed, he's close to the ideal prospect, and if he ends up following the Manny Machado route to third base, his bat will still make him a star.
Top level: Low Class A (Quad Cities) | 2013 rank: 24
5Oscar Taveras, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 6/19/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 200
AVG: .310OBP: .348OPS: .819HR: 5SB: 5
It was a lost year for Taveras, who spent most of 2013 hobbling around in a boot to protect an injured ankle that refused to heal. He remains the Cardinals' best prospect and is probably ready to take over in right field for the departed Carlos Beltran, but losing out on several hundred Triple-A at-bats won't help his development as a hitter or as a professional ballplayer.
Taveras has tremendous leverage at the plate, with a high-effort swing that he's only slightly toned down since he first emerged as a top prospect in low Class A. He's a great bad-ball hitter with power to all fields, rarely striking out, but rarely walking, either. He's a lot like a left-handed Vladimir Guerrero at the plate, with a better glove in right but less arm (there are sniper rifles less powerful than Vlad's arm).
Besides health, Taveras has been knocked for appearing to play with less than full effort at times, although much of that in 2013 may have been a function of trying to play when he could barely walk. I still think he peaks as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power, but the lack of Triple-A time may slow him down in the near term.
Top level: Triple-A (Memphis) | 2013 rank: 2
6Francisco Lindor, SS
AGE 21DOB: 11/14/93B/T: B/RHT: 5-11WT: 175
AVG: .303OBP: .380OPS: .787HR: 2SB: 25
Lindor continues to play well above his years, reaching Double-A while still 19 years old, walking more than he struck out and playing major league-caliber defense already. I'm not sure what remains for Lindor to learn before he's ready to take over the position in Cleveland, and while they could wait for him to fill out a little more physically, he's strong enough now that big league fastballs aren't going to knock the bat out of his hands.
Lindor is a plus runner and switch-hitter with a good swing on both sides of the plate; his right-handed swing is a little better, as he keeps his weight back longer, but his platoon splits flipped this year from 2012 and I think he'll produce against all types of pitching. His feel for the game has always been his greatest strength -- he has instincts and game awareness, and when you combine that with soft hands and a plus arm, you get a Gold Glove-type of defender at a critical position.
Lindor doesn't look like a power hitter but has exceptional lower-half strength and his swing will allow him to eventually get to that power even though he doesn't finish with a ton of loft. Even at 12-15 homers, which is probably a neutral projection for him, he'll be an All-Star thanks to grade-70 defense and OBPs up near .400 with plenty of doubles and 20-plus steals a year.
Top level: Double-A (Akron) | 2013 rank: 7
7Javier Baez, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 12/1/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 195
AVG: .282OBP: .341OPS: .920HR: 37SB: 20
Baez has the best bat speed of any hitter in the minors right now, and the ball explodes off his bat like he's splitting atoms with contact.
He's got 30-plus home run power, and showed at least some signs in the second half of 2012 that he could improve his plate discipline, working the count a little more effectively in some of his plate appearances. He's still prone to the at-bat where you watch him and wonder what he was thinking, the kind of brain cramp that won't be forgiven in the big leagues, but he can turn around the next time and hit a ball 400 feet the other way if the pitcher tries the same trick twice.
Baez is agile enough to handle shortstop, and could even be average or a tick better there, but his arm will play anywhere on the diamond and he's quick enough to handle second if the Cubs move him there. Wherever he plays, he'll probably start his career as a low-walk guy, maybe a .270/.310/.450 type of hitter right out of the chute, but the progress he showed in 2013 may give us hope he can improve that OBP in time and become an MVP candidate.
Top level: Double-A (Tennessee) | 2013 rank: 31
8Miguel Sano, 3B
AGE: 20DOB: 5/11/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
AVG: .280OBP: .382OPS: .992HR: 35SB: 11
Sano is the best pure offensive prospect in the minors, boasting 80-grade raw power and an easy swing that generates hard contact using his hips and legs, along with a history of making adjustments to his plan at the plate.
He reached Double-A at age 20 last year, and after a slow start there hit .258/.374/.609 after the Eastern League's All-Star Game. His power is slightly ahead of his ability to hit and make contact, but he has shown plenty of the latter skill, with strong walk rates since he reached full-season ball and the ability to pick up spin and changing speeds.
His defense is still the main question, as he's still rough at third base and that body is only going to get bigger as he gets into his 20s. Sano is also dealing with an elbow issue which shouldn't require Tommy John surgery, but the possibility he'll need that procedure remains on the table, and it would cost him a few hundred at-bats he needs and could prevent a late 2014 call-up.
If rehab alone does the trick, or a move to first base, Sano should be in the Twins' lineup on Opening Day of next year, on his way to 30- to 35-homer seasons with mid-.300 OBPs.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2013 rank: 11
9Archie Bradley, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/10/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 225
W-L: 14-5ERA: 1.84IP: 152.0SO: 162BB: 69
This is what they're supposed to look like: Big, strong, athletic, aggressive, with a pair of 70-grade pitches and promise of a third one.
Bradley, who passed up a scholarship to be a quarterback at Oklahoma after high school, effectively skipped high Class A, throwing just 28 innings there before a promotion to Double-A at age 20, and improved his performance across the board despite the two-level jump.
His command and control were both significantly better in 2013; his walk rate dropped by nearly 30 percent from low Class A to Double-A, and his rate of walks plus hit batsmen dropped by 40 percent, while he even slashed his wild pitch total (which could also be a function of who was catching him) from 17 to 2.
Bradley works with a 92-98 mph fastball and a power curveball in the low 80s with depth and right rotation. He needs more work on his changeup, and needs to use his large frame to stay on top of the fastball so it doesn't sit up in the zone. His arm works and he's extremely competitive on the mound, so the Diamondbacks were right to move him out of the hitter-friendly Cal League as quickly as possible.
He'll be ready to help the major league team by the second half of this year and projects as their future No. 1 starter.
Top level: Double-A (Mobile) | 2013 rank: 29
10Kyle Zimmer, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 9/13/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 215
W-L: 6-9ERA: 4.32IP: 108.1SO: 140BB: 36
Zimmer's season ended on a bit of a down note, as a bout of shoulder tendinitis led the Royals to shut him down for precautionary reasons (an MRI was clean), but before that he'd been on a run that established him as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation prospect who's not that far away from the majors.
Zimmer will show you two 70-grade pitches in addition to his 93-97 mph fastball -- a yellow hammer curveball with depth and angle, and a mid-80s changeup with great arm speed and some late action to it. He's an outstanding athlete, as you might expect from a converted position player, and has less mileage on his arm than most college products.
He does use a fourth pitch, a below-average slider that he needs to junk or at least limit to just a few pitches a game, and he has a tendency to rush off the rubber and speed up his entire delivery, costing him command and reducing his body control through the process.
Zimmer finished his season on fire, punching out 63 and walking eight in his last eight starts of the summer, half of them after a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and as long as his shoulder is happy he should move quickly to Triple-A. He's the future ace the Royals have been trying to develop since they traded Zack Greinke.
Top level: Double-A (Northwest Arkansas) | 2013 rank: 27
11Mark Appel, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/15/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 190
W-L: 3-1ERA: 3.79IP: 38.0SO: 33BB: 9
Appel came into last spring with an agenda on the mound after turning down a multimillion dollar offer from the Pirates, who took him eighth overall in the 2012 draft.
After hearing questions about his willingness to attack hitters and get swings and misses on his off-speed stuff, Appel tightened everything up for 2013, showing a little more velocity, a sharper breaking ball and a real willingness to claim the inner half of the plate and get into hitters' kitchens more than he had in the past. His decision to return to Stanford ended up paying off when the Astros selected him first overall in 2013.
On the right night, he'll show three plus pitches, sitting 92-97 mph on a fastball he complements with a wipeout slider and a low-to-mid-80s changeup with action and deception to it, but it's how he deployed those pitches last spring that impressed -- getting ahead with the fastball, changing eye levels, backing hitters off -- rather than just the pure stuff. Appel is a great athlete who repeats his delivery, getting out over his front side with a late release point and very clean mechanics.
Moving to every fifth day in pro ball might impact his stuff a little, but even if he loses 2 mph he's still a potential front-line starter with command and control of three above-average to plus offerings.
Top level: Low Class A (Quad Cities) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
12Jonathan Gray, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/5/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 255
W-L: 4-0ERA: 1.93IP: 37.1SO: 51BB: 8
Gray burst on the amateur scene last February when he hit 98 on a freezing Saturday in Oklahoma City on the college season's opening weekend, and it only got better from there, as he hit 100 mph a few weeks later and showed a venomous mid-80s slider that he could throw effectively to right- and left-handed batters.
The Oklahoma product's stock took a small hit when he tested positive for Adderall in MLB's predraft testing program, but after signing he made rapid improvement in the Rockies' system as Colorado made him throw the changeup more, to the point where it was flashing plus by the end of the summer.
Gray's a physical presence on the mound, with a lightning-quick arm, taking a long stride toward the plate with moderate hip rotation and accelerating his arm quickly after a slightly stiff landing. Other than the changeup, which is coming along faster than expected, his main issues are fastball command and maintaining his delivery when working out of the stretch.
He's a potential No. 1 starter with a very high floor as long as he stays healthy, as even fringy command will still lead to a ton of swings and misses on his primary two pitches.
Top level: High Class A (Modesto) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
13Gregory Polanco, RF
AGE: 22DOB: 9/14/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 220
AVG: .285OBP: .356OPS: .791HR: 12SB: 38
Polanco is one of the most exciting position-player prospects in the minors due to his combination of all five tools and a very mature approach to all parts of the game.
His main calling card now is his plus-plus defense in center, with great range due to his speed and much better reads on balls than he was making early last year. He shortened up his swing without sacrificing any power, maintaining his high contact rates despite spending half of 2013 at Double-A in just his second year in full-season leagues. He's a 70-grade runner out of the box, and his plate discipline and approach are way beyond what you'd expect from a player so young and inexperienced.
He's going to impact the game on offense, on defense and on the bases, a 25-homer guy with high OBPs and outstanding glovework in the outfield. The suddenly talent-rich Pirates can prepare to get even richer.
Top level: Triple-A (Indianapolis) | 2013 rank: 55
14Julio Urias, LHP
AGE: 17DOB: 8/12/96B/T: L/LHT: 5-11WT: 160
W-L: 2-0ERA: 2.48IP: 54.1SO: 67BB: 16
The Dodgers signed Urias -- who is the youngest player on this list by a wide margin -- during the same trip to Mexico that netted them Yasiel Puig, which may end up one of the most productive scouting runs in baseball history, as Urias has enormous upside if he can just stay healthy while Los Angeles gradually builds up his arm to handle a starter's workload.
He has four pitches now, with a fastball up to 95 mph and a plus curveball, but stood out more for his feel for pitching, carving low Class A hitters up with his full assortment and by locating his fastball around the zone. He's barely 5-foot-11, but is young enough that he could still be growing; his weight is of greater concern, as he's a little chubby already -- although guys like Fernando Valenzuela weren't exactly body-beautiful, either. He also has a drooping eyelid (ptosis) that scared some teams off, but the issue is cosmetic and doesn't affect his ability to pitch.
For Urias to reach his ceiling, it's about staying healthy, and continuing to improve his command as he faces tougher hitters who won't chase fastballs up or watch curveballs right over the heart of the plate.
Top level: Low Class A (Great Lakes) | 2013 rank: Unranked
15Kris Bryant, 3B
AGE: 22DOB: 1/4/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215
AVG: .336OBP: .390OPS: 1.078HR: 9SB: 1
A first-round talent out of high school who ended up at the University of San Diego, Bryant went second overall to the Cubs in 2013 after crushing NCAA leaderboards into singularities all spring, then proceeded to do the same in a month and a half of pro ball, slugging .688 over the summer and .727 in the Arizona Fall League.
Bryant has big-time power, especially to his pull side, with huge hip rotation after starting with a very wide base. He has no stride and a tendency to slightly overrotate; combined with just average bat speed, it creates some risk that his contact rates will drop as he faces better velocity in Double-A or higher. He's a good athlete for his size and has a chance to remain at third base; if he has to move to the outfield, he'll be above average to plus in right, with plenty of arm for any position on the field.
At worst, he'll be an impact power bat with good defense in right and adequate OBPs; his ceiling is a 30- to 35-homer bat with .350-plus OBPs and solid-average defense at third, the kind of bat you stick in the cleanup spot so you can build your lineup around him.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
16Taijuan Walker, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/13/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 210
W-L: 9-10ERA: 2.93IP: 141.1SO: 160BB: 57
Everyone still loves Walker's combination of athleticism, height and absurdly easy velocity, all of which earn comparisons to a young Doc Gooden, but with better makeup.
He took some small steps backward mechanically in 2013 while supplanting his curveball with a cutter, and while his ceiling remains very high, there's a little less probability than there was last winter. Walker gets into the mid-90s on his fastball with minimal effort, and the first part of his arm swing is easy and fluid. When he's on, his cutter is a swing-and-miss offering, although he's still developing his feel for it, time and attention that may be part of the deterioration of his curveball.
Walker's stride is shorter than ever now and he finishes very upright, which robs him of depth on his curveball and leaves his fastball finishing up in the zone, rather than with downhill plane from his height. He also wraps his wrist on the curveball and doesn't get the tight rotation he used to get on the pitch.
A pitcher with his classic frame who can hit 97 mph and has a potential out pitch (the cutter) is still an outstanding prospect, the best in the Mariners' system, but there will be unrealized potential here if he doesn't get back to finishing over his front side and getting that bite back on his curveball.
Top level: Majors | 2013 rank: 9
17Eddie Butler, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 3/13/91B/T: B/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
W-L: 9-5ERA: 1.80IP: 149.2SO: 143BB: 52
The Rockies took Butler in the second round of the 2012 draft on the basis of his combination of a plus fastball with tremendous sink and a hard slider, but his low arm slot and lack of a solid third pitch had many teams viewing him as a likely reliever in the majors.
His slot is still low, but Butler is more than a two-pitch guy now and the Radford alum profiles as a future top-of-the-rotation starter. Butler will work in the mid-90s, touching 98 mph from the windup, with big-time life on the pitch because of his low slot -- not just sink, but tailing life as well, producing a ground out/air out rate just under 60 percent across three levels this year.
His silder is still there and still plus in the mid-to-upper 80s, but the changeup was the real revelation this year; if you saw the Futures Game, you saw him throw one at 90 mph that moved almost like a screwball, and you probably heard the gasps from everyone in the scouts' seats. He probably didn't belong in the low Class A South Atlantic League to start the year, but he was just as effective at his next two stops, with no platoon split to speak of in high Class A or Double-A.
With three pitches and the ability to keep the ball down, he's at least a No. 2 starter, and you couldn't find a better fit for Coors Field than this kind of power and life.
Top level: Double-A (Tulsa) | 2013 rank: Unranked
18Corey Seager, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 4/27/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
AVG: .269OBP: .351OPS: .824HR: 16SB: 10
Seager proved to be an advanced hitter for his age when he tore up the low Class A Midwest League right out of high school, showing a good approach at the plate and developing power, especially after he came off the disabled list in early June. He has some mechanical issues to work out at the plate, weaknesses that high Class A and Arizona Fall League pitchers exploited, but they're fixable, and his size and athleticism give him star potential once he moves off shortstop to third base.
As a hitter, Seager has 25- to 30-homer potential thanks to outstanding hip rotation and a huge frame that is the main reason he'll eventually slide to third base. Late in 2013, he changed his stance, drifting and rolling over his front foot, which made him late on fastballs and gave him less time to recognize pitch types, but it wasn't something he did in high school or earlier in the year, and should be simple to correct. He's also hit southpaws well since entering pro ball, unusual for a left-handed high school hitter but a great sign for his future development.
Seager has very good hands and plenty of arm, but he'd be the largest shortstop in MLB history if he doesn't move, and most teams will opt for an above-average defender there. He'll be a above-average defender at third who gets on base and hits for power, which would make him one of the best third basemen in the majors when he reaches that peak.
Top level: High Class A (Rancho Cucamonga) | 2013 rank: 46
19George Springer, OF
AGE: 24DOB: 9/19/89B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 200
AVG: .303OBP: .411OPS: 1.010HR: 37SB: 45
Springer may be a mold-breaker, a player whose raw abilities are so outsized that he can overcome contact problems that would sink almost any lesser player.
He grades out highly in all five tools, with plus power already and 70 speed once he's underway. His swing has a ton of leverage in it, almost knocking him over at times, but his hands are so quick that he makes a lot of hard line-drive contact -- when he's not swinging and missing, which he does often, in large part because he makes no adjustment at all with two strikes.
He's continued to improve his routes in center field and probably will stay there unless Houston ends up with a 70- or 80-grade defender to replace him. Springer could be a 30/30 player who draws plenty of walks; his ultimate value will depend on the contact he makes still being hard contact.
I could easily see him being a consistently high-BABIP guy who strikes out 180 times a year and still hits .280 or better, because of how quick his hands are, and that player in center field would be an All-Star.
Top level: Triple-A (Oklahoma City) | 2013 rank: 43
20Tyler Glasnow RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 8/23/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-7WT: 195
W-L: 9-3ERA: 2.18IP: 111.1SO: 164BB: 61
Glasnow was 88-91 mph as a high school senior but had a ton of physical projection to his 6-foot-7, broad-shouldered frame, some of which has already started to appear and has kicked up his velocity into the mid-90s.
His fastball is heavy and hard to elevate, so while he doesn't command the pitch that well yet -- not uncommon for a tall, lanky pitcher who's working to get those long levers working consistently -- low Class A hitters couldn't do much with the pitch.
He throws both a curveball and slider, with the slider the better pitch right now, hard and tight at 84-87, while the curveball has good 11-to-5 break and sits in the upper 70s. His command and control lag behind his stuff, as he's only a fair athlete and needs more reps to learn to improve his body control, but he did show gradual improvement in strike-throwing as the season went on. In his last three outings of 2013 he faced 54 batters over 14 innings, allowing one hit, walking 10 and punching out 24.
The scariest part about Glasnow is that he could still get stronger, and it's not hard to imagine him with three plus pitches, bumping 98 with plane and cleaning up the mess at the plate with either of his breaking balls.
Top level: Low Class A (West Virginia) | 2013 rank: Unranked
21Lucas Giolito, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 7/14/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 225
W-L: 2-1ERA: 1.96IP: 36.2SO: 39BB: 14
Giolito might have been the first high school right-hander ever taken first overall in the draft had he not suffered a thickness tear to one of his right elbow ligaments in March of 2012, eventually requiring Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound as early as you can possibly return from that operation, back to hitting 98 mph again with great downhill plane that prevented hitters from elevating the ball against him all summer.
His curveball flashed plus-plus again, and his feel for the pitch will likely return with more reps; while he does need to work on his changeup, it was the best it's ever been during instructional league this past September, with good separation from the fastball and better arm speed. He's a very hard-working kid who does a lot of the little things well, like fielding his position and holding runners, which endears him to old-school coaches who place a lot of emphasis on those "fundamentals." I like those too, but I don't care as much when the pitcher is 6-foot-6 and has a chance for two 70-grade pitches with command and feel.
He might move slowly in 2014, as he's just 19 years old and will be in his first full year back from the elbow surgery, but he projects as a No. 1 starter not too far down the road.
Top level: Short-season Class A (Auburn) | 2013 rank: 77
22Raul Mondesi, SS
AGE: 18DOB: 7/27/95B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 165
AVG: .261OBP: .311OPS: .672HR: 7SB: 24
Mondesi didn't turn 18 until the last week of July, but spent the entire year in the low Class A Midwest League as one of its youngest regulars, thanks to his plus defense at short (arguably a grade 70) and outstanding feel for the game, two attributes that earn him comparisons to Texas infielder Jurickson Profar.
The son of the former Dodgers Rookie of the Year with the same name, Mondesi has his father's face but not his body type, which is a good thing, as he's not likely to end up slow and fat as his father did in his 30s. Raul Jr. is lithe and quick, with easy, natural actions on all kinds of plays at shortstop, with a plus arm to go with it.
At the plate, he needs to get stronger first and foremost, and tends to glide a little over his front side, something he can make up for because his hands are so quick; his approach is solid, considering his youth, and he keeps his hands inside the ball really well for such a young player.
I don't see him developing his father's power, as he's more of a line-drive hitter, but he has a rotational swing that could get him to 40-odd doubles in the majors, and I wouldn't be shocked if he broke out this year at age 18 the way Profar did at 18 in 2011.
Top level: Low Class A (Lexington) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
23Kevin Gausman, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 1/6/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 3-6ERA: 3.51IP: 82.0SO: 82BB: 14
It wasn't the ideal year for Gausman in 2013. He probably should have been left in the minors for a few more months before he was given so much as a spot start in the majors, where he struggled over 47 ⅔ IP, but he looked more like his old self later in the year when he resumed throwing his slider more often.
He has a strong three-pitch arsenal to project as a No. 2 starter, with a fastball that sits 94-97 mph and has touched 100 in shorter looks, with good life down in the zone, as well as a plus changeup that has long been his primary out pitch, with good arm speed and a very severe late tumble. His slider has come and gone since the Orioles drafted him, but at the end of September he used it more and it became sharper and more consistent, 83-86 with late bite, sometimes sweeping it away from right-handers but other times giving it an almost 11-to-5 break, although he was working in relief at the time.
He was in the majors too soon and could use a good 15-20 starts in the minors to focus on improving his command and feel for that pitch, but the promise he showed with it in relief -- MLB hitters failed to put any of the last 25 sliders he threw in 2013 in play -- should give Orioles fans a lot of optimism.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2013 rank: 26
24Noah Syndergaard, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/29/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-6WT: 240
W-L: 9-4ERA: 3.06IP: 117.2SO: 133BB: 28
Syndergaard had an awesome 2013 season from start to finish, improving in multiple ways as the season went on while putting up superb numbers as a 20-year-old in high Class A and Double-A, and still has room for further improvement.
He already has the build of a workhorse starter, with velocity up to 98 mph that's easy like Sunday morning and the ability to get downhill plane on it when he stays on top of the ball. His changeup is comfortably plus already, but his curveball, a grade-40ish pitch in high school and early in his pro career, is already solid average, and plays up because he gets on top of the ball and releases so close to the plate; hitters swing and miss at it like it's a sharper, harder pitch.
It's very unusual to have a pitcher this young show this kind of athleticism, present command and pure stuff and even if Syndergaard doesn't improve further, he's at least a quality third starter who can handle 200-inning workloads, but the curveball could get a little tighter and push him up to a No. 2 or better.
Top level: Double-A (Binghamton) | 2013 rank: 97
25Braden Shipley, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 2/22/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 0-3ERA: 4.99IP: 39.2SO: 40BB: 14
Shipley fell to the 15th spot in the 2013 draft thanks mostly to a run on bats in the 10 picks before the Diamondbacks selected, but that just made him a great value for Arizona, getting the sixth-ranked player on my own board, a super-athletic converted position player who already had a plus secondary pitch in his changeup.
After he signed, the Diamondbacks had Shipley correct a problem with his hand break that made it too easy for hitters to pick up the ball, but once he corrected that, he found it easier to get on top of the ball, and the curveball his college coach rarely called started to emerge as a plus pitch. (At Nevada, he would usually be prohibited from throwing the curveball at all until the fifth inning.)
Shipley pitches at 92-95 mph with his heater but can flash a little higher than that, with a legitimate big league out pitch already in his changeup, with good deception at 83-86 as well as heavy late action. His stride is very long toward the plate and his arm accelerates quickly once he turns it over; as you'd expect from a converted guy, he fields his position well and has the body control to repeat his delivery.
If the curveball he showed late in 2013 is a permanent feature he's on his way to being the No. 2 starter in Arizona not too far down the line.
Top level: Low Class A (South Bend) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
26Jorge Soler, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 2/25/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
AVG: .281OBP: .343OPS: .810HR: 8SB: 5
Soler, who the Cubs signed for $30 million out of Cuba in 2012, was 55 games into a promising first full season in the minors when he fouled a ball off his leg, breaking a bone and missing out on a likely mid-year promotion to Double-A.
He returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, looking rusty but physically imposing, with a good 15-20 pounds of added muscle since I'd seen him the previous summer in rookie ball. Soler has outstanding hand speed and acceleration at the plate, with big-time power when he concentrates on staying back and letting his hips work to add leverage to his swing; he does have a tendency to cut across the ball rather than finishing toward the middle of the field, which reduces his power. His plan at the plate has been better than anticipated, and he's going to be above-average to plus in right field.
Soler was also suspended at one point for an on-field incident during which he threatened the opposing dugout with a bat after a hard collision at second base (and some words exchanged), a sign that while he's very competitive, he's still got some maturing and adjusting to U.S. baseball culture ahead of him. I see explosive offensive potential, with easy plus power and enough feel for the zone to be a middle-of-the-order bat.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2013 rank: 42
27Jameson Taillon, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/18/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 235
W-L: 5-10ERA: 3.73IP: 147.1SO: 143BB: 52
Taillon's a very good starting pitching prospect, but might fall a little short of fan expectations because the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
He has the raw ingredients to be an ace -- size, velocity (92-98, often more 94-9
, a hard-breaking slider, and a history of throwing strikes. He can use the breaking ball to get left-handers out, backdooring it in counts where they might be looking for his changeup.
The problem is that hitters get a good look at the ball out of his hands, and say that his fastball is easier to hit than the velocity would indicate. He also has limited feel for his changeup, which comes in too hard and misses up to his arm side, possibly because he's overthrowing it. Taillon just turned 22 and is already in Triple-A, even with those areas for improvement, and could probably be a league-average starter for the Pirates by Opening Day of 2015, with a good probability of becoming a top 30-40 starter in the league at his peak.
Top level: Triple-A (Indianapolis) | 2013 rank: 20
28Albert Almora, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 4/16/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
AVG: .329OBP: .376OPS: .842HR: 3SB: 4
Almora lacks the huge upside of the three Cubs position player prospects ahead of him on this list because his tools aren't as explosive, but he makes up for that with incredible instincts and game awareness that make him a very high-probability prospect who looks like a lock to spend a decade in the big leagues in center field.
He gets some of the best reads off the bat I've ever seen from an outfield prospect, so although he's a below-average runner he still plays a plus center field. At the plate, Almora has a clean, controlled swing that produces a lot of hard contact, with hip rotation for future average to above-average power. He has great hand-eye coordination that allows him to square up a lot of pitches, but has to learn to rein himself in and wait for a pitch he can drive to make full use of his hit and power tools -- and if that means taking a few more walks, well, both he and the Cubs could use that right about now.
Almora won't end up the superstar that the Cubs are hoping to get from Baez/Bryant/Soler, but should be a solid producer for years who sneaks on to a few All-Star teams as the baseball world learns to appreciate what he can do in the field.
Top level: Low Class A (Kane County) | 2013 rank: 33
29Robert Stephenson, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 1/24/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 190
W-L: 7-7ERA: 2.99IP: 114.1SO: 136BB: 35
The Lighthouse made solid progress this year despite missing about a month with a hamstring injury that still nagged at him even after he reached Double-A in mid-August.
Despite the leg issue, Stephenson still showed premium stuff, a 93-98 mph fastball and a power breaking ball in the low 80s that is almost unhittable, especially for right-handed batters. His changeup still has a ways to go, although the Reds are forcing him to throw a certain number each game so he doesn't just rely on blowing his fastball by left-handed hitters (which he can do, at least at the lower levels).
Stephenson stays over the rubber well and takes a long stride toward the plate, but he's pretty late turning his pitching arm over and is stiff when he gets out over that front side. He also has a head-bobble after release, which is usually a bad sign for the pitcher's command, but in Stephenson's case command isn't a problem, nor is control; he walked just 22 batters across both A-ball leagues this year, just 5.6 percent of the men he faced.
He'll pitch at 21 years old in 2014, likely starting in Double-A, and the Reds have handled him carefully enough to keep him healthy; as the changeup goes, so goes Stephenson, with that No. 1 starter upside still within reach.
Top level: Double-A (Pensaocola) | 2013 rank: 48
30Aaron Sanchez, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/1/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 190
W-L: 4-5ERA: 3.34IP: 86.1SO: 75BB: 40
The gap between Sanchez's ability and his results grew a little this year, a season when the latter should have been catching up to the former as he gained experience and his body matured. He continues to show top-of-the-rotation stuff, but not the command or control required to get there, and alterations to his delivery were at least one reason why.
Sanchez has hit 99 mph and sits 92-96 with very little effort to get there, and shows four pitches, led by a hard two-plane curveball in the upper 70s with shape and depth to it. He generates a lot of ground balls already, but the Jays tried to have him switch to a sinker grip this year, resulting in an outing where he faced nine batters, walked four, and couldn't finish an inning of work.
His delivery has also regressed, as he now has a terribly short stride and finishes with his torso almost completely upright, so his fastball rides up, his head jerks at release, and he doesn't get the same finish to his breaking stuff. Upright finishes are also associated with higher risk of arm injuries, so there's every reason to try to get him striding longer and finishing out front -- it'll keep him healthy and make him a better pitcher.
Until that happens, though, he's going to pitch below the raw grades of his stuff, which would be a shame given his arm and great makeup.
Top level: High Class A (Dunedin) | 2013 rank: 19
31Dylan Bundy, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 11/15/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 195
W-L: 9-3ERA: 2.08IP: 103.2SO: 119BB: 28
Note: Stats listed are from the 2012 season.
Bundy missed all of 2013 after tearing a ligament in his right elbow (an injury that was first called a forearm strain, then a flexor mass strain), which led to late-June surgery that probably puts him out until about the same point in 2014. When healthy, he was the best pitching prospect in baseball, boasting a fastball up to 99 mph, a wipeout cutter that he could command like a 10-year veteran, a hard curveball and a developing changeup.
He has an outstanding delivery -- the mere act of pitching does bad things to an elbow -- but Bundy generated most of his power from his lower half, and if we graded conditioning and work ethic Bundy would have graded out as an 80 in both. It may take a half-season or longer for Bundy's command and feel for his off-speed stuff to return, and I hope that the Orioles' emphasis on getting him quicker to the plate takes a backseat until he's back to full strength.
He's an incredibly special talent who should still be an impact player if the surgery proves to be nothing more than an extended vacation for him.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2013 rank: 3
32Nick Castellanos, 3B
AGE: 21DOB: 3/4/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 210
AVG: .276OBP: .343OPS: .793HR: 18SB: 4
The Tigers' trade of Prince Fielder allows Miguel Cabrera to move to first base and clears the way for Castellanos -- who had been getting reps in the outfield in deference to Cabrera -- to return to the infield, which helps him as he's more valuable if he can prove he can handle third base. Castellanos is a batter first, posting an above-the-median batting line as the Triple-A International League's youngest position player (minimum 300 plate appearances), finishing in the top 20 in slugging and leading the league in total bases.
He's very strong for a 21-year-old, with a simple, repeatable swing that starts with a deep load and is heavily rotational, leading to that above-average power that will end up plus, probably 25-30 homers per year, even in Comerica Park. He tightened up his approach at the plate this year, recognizing after reaching Double-A last year that he needed to be more disciplined about pitches just off the corners. He'll need work at third base, as he's a below-average runner without much natural quickness, but with better footwork and more reps at the position he should end up at least fringe-average.
If he costs them five runs a year in the field, which I doubt, he'll more than make up for it with his bat, hitting .290-.300 with doubles and homers.
Top level: Majors (Detroit) | 2013 rank: 38
33Austin Hedges, C
AGE: 21DOB: 8/18/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190
AVG: .260OBP: .333OPS: .723HR: 4SB: 8
The minors' premier defensive catcher is one of the best bets on the list to have a long MLB career, although it remains to be seen what kind of role he has. His glove will keep him playing as long as he's healthy, regardless of whether or not he hits, but he has the raw power to become an impact bat for the position as well.
Hedges is as natural and smooth a receiver as any in the minors, with one of the strongest and most accurate arms as well. At the plate, he's reduced his stride and is more balanced than he was a year ago, still showing big-time rotation and loft in his swing, but his power wasn't evident on the field this year, only in BP, although some of that may have been a hangover from getting hit on the left hand with a pitch in early May. His contact rates are very strong for a hitter so young, as he was well below the Cal League median for strikeout rate despite being the second-youngest position player in the league after Addison Russell, so it's about getting into better counts to drive the ball, not an inability to hit.
He's ranked here because I see 20-25 homer power potential with a .250-.260 average, which, with plus defense, would make him an All-Star.
Top level: Double-A (San Antonio) | 2013 rank: 36
34Andrew Heaney, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 6/5/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 190
W-L: 9-3ERA: 1.60IP: 95.1SO: 89BB: 26
The Marlins' first pick (ninth overall) in the 2012 draft, Heaney showed himself to be more than just a "pitchability" lefty, working with a solid-average fastball and two plus secondary pitches as he dominated high Class A and came close to doing the same in Double-A in six August starts.
Heaney comes from an arm slot a little under three-quarters and cuts himself off slightly, but those two points both add to his deception, and the way he can manipulate the ball makes him even harder for hitters to square up. His slider and changeup are both in the upper 70s/low 80s, with the slider showing good tilt and angle and the changeup bringing good arm speed and downward fade, and he commands all three pitches.
If he threw harder and had a somewhat cleaner delivery, he'd be a top 10 or 15 overall prospect, but as is I think he's a good No. 3 starter trending up toward a No. 2 because of his control and how hard it is for hitters to pick up the ball.
Top level: Double-A (Jacksonville) | 2013 rank: Unranked
35Austin Meadows, CF
AGE: 18DOB: 5/3/95B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200
AVG: .316OBP: .424OPS: .977HR: 7SB: 3
Meadows, who ranked fifth on my 2013 draft board, went ninth overall to the Pirates in the pick they received for failing to sign Mark Appel in the previous draft, and the Bucs had to be celebrating when the best athlete in the class was still on the board for them with that selection.
He was a two-sport star in high school and seemed a little raw in baseball, especially at the plate, getting notice more for his explosive power/speed combination and the potential for his 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame to put on another 20 or so pounds of strength. He's a plus runner who can play center as long as he doesn't outgrow it and lose speed; his arm is fringy and would push him to left, raising the bar his bat has to reach for him to be a star.
Meadows has a sound left-handed swing, with good bat speed and the rotation to generate power from his legs as well as his arms; his finish is a little flat, and he could add a small stride rather than just a toe-tap. The Pirates have already made some minor tweaks, but were also thrilled to see that he had more feel at the plate and in center than anyone thought based on his spring.
He might have the best shot of anyone in the 2013 draft class to explode into an 8-WAR player, the way Mike Trout -- another huge, athletic center fielder who proved more polished than forecasted -- did after 2009.
Top level: Short-season Class A (Jamestown) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
36Travis d'Arnaud
AGE: 25DOB: 2/10/89B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
AVG: .286OBP: .420OPS: .934HR: 3SB: 0
d'Arnaud would be a top-10 prospect if he could stay on the field, but 2013 was yet another injury-shortened year for the twice-traded prospect who has reached 400 plate appearances in just two of his six full pro seasons.
When he's on the field, he's an impact player on both sides of the ball, featuring outstanding receiving (including pitch-framing) ability, an above-average arm, and good relationships with pitchers, as well as above-average power that should lead to 20-25 homers if he plays a full season. His hand-eye coordination is excellent but his approach isn't as polished, as he's not a patient hitter and struggled terribly against both sliders and curveballs in his brief major league time in 2013.
A premium defensive catcher who even hits .240 with power is still a highly valuable commodity right now, as replacement level at catcher is low enough to give a GM the bends, so for d'Arnaud the main issue is just trying to avoid the trainer's room so he can get 450-500 plate appearances in 2014.
Top level: Majors (New York Mets) | 2013 rank: 14
37Dominic Smith, 1B
AGE: 18DOB: 6/15/95B/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 185
AVG: .301OBP: .398OPS: .837HR: 3SB: 2
Smith was the best pure hitter in the 2013 draft class, sporting a beautiful left-handed swing and flashing above-average power, along with plus defense at first base and an arm that reached 92 mph when he was on the mound in high school.
When Smith keeps his weight back, he generates big-time power from his lower half, with hard contact thanks to quick, strong wrists. He had a habit of drifting too quickly over his front leg, something the Mets seem to have worked on eliminating. He's a low-heartbeat hitter, approaching at-bats as if he were much older and more experienced. Smith is athletic but not a runner, and his footwork has limited him to first base, where he projects as a 70-grade defender thanks to incredibly soft hands. He has areas to work on, mostly recognition of breaking stuff and keeping his focus on using the whole field, which is minor stuff compared with the bigger issues of swing mechanics and plate discipline.
His ceiling is an impact bat at first, a cleanup hitter with 25-30 homer power and .300-plus averages to go with outstanding defense. I'd like to see him challenged with an assignment to the low Class A Sally League this year, as he's too advanced a hitter for short-season ball.
Top level: Rookie (Kingsport) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
38Hunter Harvey, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 12/9/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 175
W-L: 0-1ERA: 1.76IP: 25.1SO: 33BB: 6
The son of former big league closer Bryan Harvey, Hunter went to Baltimore with the 22nd overall pick of the 2013 draft, thanks to those bloodlines, a fastball consistently in the 90-94 range, and a hammer curveball he seemed to manipulate into different shapes.
He's a projectable kid, but the velocity ticked up right after he signed, as he was sitting 94-97 mph by the end of the summer and his command was just as good as if not better than what it was in the spring. His changeup flashes above-average but he still needs reps with it as it lags well behind his other two pitches; in a minuscule sample, lefties hit him much harder (.350 batting average against) than right-handed hitters (.154) did in pro ball. His arm slot is high, which gives depth to the curveball but can make it tough to turn over a changeup, which he'll need to combat lefties.
The Orioles have started to try to clean up and simplify his delivery, getting him more online to the plate. He's going to put on another 15-20 pounds, and if the changeup comes along he might end up in the same tier as Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.
Top level: Short-season Class A (Aberdeen) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
39Matt Wisler, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 9/12/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 10-6ERA: 2.78IP: 136.0SO: 131BB: 33
The Padres' seventh-round selection in 2011 had a solid full-season debut in 2012, but last year was his coming out party as he improved in just about every possible way, from stuff to command to confidence on the mound.
Wisler works with two plus pitches already, a fastball at a legit 93-96 mph and a slider that's a grade 60 or a 70, working consistently in the bottom of the zone and showing no fear when attacking hitters on the inner half or even when falling behind in the count. The main knock on Wisler is his delivery, as he doesn't use his lower half as much as he should and he pronates his pitching arm late, with his front foot already touching the ground. That leads to some inconsistency in his slot, but he hasn't had any trouble yet with command or control, only with his feel for his changeup, which he can't turn over properly when his arm drifts down.
He's an 80-grade competitor and a diligent worker, giving him a better chance than most pitchers to reach his ceiling, which for him is a No. 2 starter who can handle 200-plus innings a year.
Top level: Double-A (San Antonio) | 2013 rank: Unranked
40Lucas Sims, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 5/10/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
W-L: 12-4ERA: 2.62IP: 116.2SO: 134BB: 46
Sims came on right from the start of 2013, his first full year in pro ball after Atlanta took him with the 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft.
Still just 19 years old, Sims works in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 96 frequently, with a power breaking ball that's already plus -- showing good depth and 11-to-5 break -- while his hard changeup improved as well this year with good fading action and adequate arm speed. He's put on 10-15 pounds since high school, helping him throw a little harder and maintain his velocity better into games. It's not an ideal delivery, as he pronates his elbow a little late and tends to fly open, but his arm is also very loose and once he gets it turned over it's extremely quick.
Sims still has a little room to fill out and add more velocity or just increase his potential workloads, and if the effort required to speed that arm up doesn't affect him -- or if Atlanta gets him to generate more torque from his legs -- he's a potential No. 2 starter for the Braves.
Top level: Low Class A (Rome) | 2013 rank: Unranked
41Joc Pederson, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 4/21/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-1WT: 185
AVG: .278OBP: .381OPS: .878HR: 22SB: 31
I whiffed on Pederson last year after he looked terrible in the AFL, a stint when (in hindsight) it seems obvious he was exhausted and couldn't show off any of his above-average tools. That became clear in the first half of this season, as Pederson showed power and speed as well as a great approach against right-handed pitchers, all while playing above-average or better defense in center.
I think he profiles better in right, as he's got the arm for it and most teams will have a better option on defense in center, but he won't hurt anyone out there if he ends up the starter. At the plate he has plus raw power already, trending up, with outstanding hip rotation after a moderately deep load back below his right shoulder, and a solid weight transfer as he strides into contact.
Pederson's only real weakness is facing left-handed pitching, as lefties dominated him this year across the board (.206/.282/.382 line) and he struggled to make contact against lefty breaking stuff. His father threw him BP left-handed when he was growing up, making this issue a bit of a surprise, and he's young enough to overcome it with experience; his front leg can get a little soft and roll over, which may (or may not) be connected. That's probably the only thing standing between him and becoming an All-Star big league outfielder.
Top level: Double-A (Chattanooga) | 2013 rank: Unranked
42Henry Owens, LHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/21/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-6WT: 205
W-L: 11-6ERA: 2.67IP: 135.0SO: 169BB: 68
Owens was prospect No. 101 on last year's rankings, first in the column of guys who just missed the main list, but he showed across-the-board improvement in 2013 and now projects as a No. 3 starter with a chance to be a good No. 2.
He has always been a strike-thrower, but was working in the upper 80s as a starter in high school and right after signing, showing 90-92 in short stints. In 2013, he was working at that higher range as a starter and his curveball got sharper and harder as well, now more 72-74 as opposed to the upper 60s he showed the year before. The curve will settle in as an average to slightly above-average pitch, but he already has the swing-and-miss weapon in his plus-plus changeup, made even more effective because hitters do not pick up the ball out of his hand.
Owens has always had feel and control, but now the stuff is catching up to his polish and he's not far away from contributing in Fenway.
Top level: Double-A (Portland) | 2013 rank: Just missed
43Eduardo Rodriguez, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 4/07/93B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 200
W-L: 10-7ERA: 3.41IP: 145.0SO: 125BB: 49
A gut-feel choice for me last year at No. 100, Rodriguez came out throwing well from the start of the season, showing three pitches, two above-average and one with promise, earning a midyear promotion to Double-A at age 20.
Rodriguez will sit 91-94 mph with his fastball, mostly four-seamers with the occasional two-seamer, and has a plus changeup in the 84-88 range with good arm speed and hard fading action to his arm side. His slider is inconsistent, mostly 82-83, short and sometimes flat but other times sharp enough for him to backfoot a right-handed hitter. His arm swing is sound, although he's not consistent off the rubber, staying over it on some pitches and drifting forward on others, with more effort in his delivery when he drifts.
Rodriguez won't turn 21 until April and has both physical and mental development ahead of him, with the stuff to be a No. 2 starter but not yet the feel or command.
Top level: Double-A (Bowie) | 2013 rank: 100
44Jorge Alfaro, C
AGE: 20DOB: 6/11/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 185
AVG: .265OBP: .346OPS: .809HR: 18SB: 18
Alfaro, one of my two sleepers for Texas going into 2012 (along with Cody Buckel, who broke out in 2012 but missed all of 2013 with the "yips"), repeated low Class A Hickory for most of last season after only about a half-season's worth of at-bats there the previous year, but made visible progress in many aspects of his game the second time around.
He has always had the raw tools to be a superstar, with an 80-grade arm and 80 power, but had no discernible plan at the plate other than "swing, then swing," and his tools behind the plate weren't matched by the effort or energy required to be an asset at the position. In 2013, he grew up, taking better at-bats and working harder at all aspects of his game, with good enough results for a late-season promotion to Myrtle Beach.
He's an unusual specimen for a catcher, built like a corner outfielder but athletic like a middle infielder, with the quick-twitch muscles of a player like Justin Upton, just lacking the finer things like instincts and effort required to convert them into performance. His 2013 season shows those aspects of his game are now coming, and if Myrtle Beach (a brutal park for power) doesn't stifle him, he could start to move more quickly toward an everyday major league job.
Top level: High Class A (Myrtle Beach) | 2013 rank: Unranked
45Clint Frazier, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 9/6/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190
AVG: .297OBP: .362OPS: .868HR: 5SB: 3
If you take Javier Baez out of the discussion, Frazier probably has the best bat speed of any player in organized baseball, with furious hand acceleration producing hard contact and surprising power for a player his size.
His value is all in his bat, as he's almost certain to end up in left field because he's an average-at-best runner with a fringy to below-average arm, although he has the aptitude to play up the middle if the situation forced it. That bat projects well at any position, however, thanks to those unbelievably quick wrists and a sound swing that doesn't leave him collapsing as so many "swing as hard as you can" hitters do. Frazier's main developmental need is recognizing off-speed stuff, which was a problem for him in high school, and even A-ball pitchers who have a little command of their breaking pitches will present him with a challenge.
His floor is low, as he has to hit to have value, but he's got an All-Star ceiling if he improves his recognition and can maintain high batting averages with 20-25 home run output.
Top level: Rookie (Arizona League) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
46J.P. Crawford, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 1/11/95B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
AVG: .308OBP: .405OPS: .805HR: 1SB: 14
Crawford could have gone as high as 10th in the 2013 draft, as he was one of the Blue Jays' final choices for their pick in that spot, and was in every team's mix on down to the Phillies at 16, who were on him all spring as one of the draft's only true shortstops.
The Phils aren't afraid of slow-development guys, which Crawford appeared to be as a physically immature player who had present speed and some feel to hit. For these reasons his performance in the Gulf Coast League was surprising -- he finished second in the league in OBP and walked as often as he struck out, all while playing above-average defense at shortstop. He even held his own in a brief trial in low-A, an aggressive assignment for an 18-year-old just out of high school.
Crawford needs some help with his first step and actions around the bag at second base, and he's going to have to get stronger so he can continue to hit as he faces better fastballs, but the Phillies may have just nabbed an impact player in the middle of the diamond.
Top level: Low Class A (Lakewood) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
47David Dahl, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 4/1/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 185
AVG: .275OBP: .310OPS: .735HR: 0SB: 2
I'm sure Dahl wishes 2013 never happened, as it began with a punitive demotion to extended spring training after just one game in the Sally League and ended in mid-May with a torn hamstring that refused to heal until instructional league. The demotion came after Dahl missed a team flight, a one-time event that by all accounts was an outlier for Dahl, and by instructs he was in great physical shape and able to move around without limitations. That puts us almost where we were last year with Dahl, except that he's lost about 350-400 at-bats of development that might have sped him to the majors.
On the field, Dahl boasts strong tools across the board, with above-average speed now that may trend down as his frame fills out, a variable that will determine whether he stays in center or moves to right field; his arm is strong enough for either spot and he'll likely show plus range in a corner. His real impact will come at the plate, where he's got a very quick bat and is short and direct to the ball, with good loft in his finish for future-plus power, possibly projecting as a 25 homer, 20 steals guy with good OBPs.
He looked very advanced at the plate in 2012 and may not suffer too much from the time off. He'll turn 20 on April 1, and even if he starts back in Asheville should be ready to spend most of the year in high-A or above.
Top level: Low Class A (Asheville) | 2013 rank: 37
48Max Fried, LHP
AGE: 20DOB: 1/18/94B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 185
W-L: 6-7ERA: 3.49IP: 118.2SO: 100BB: 56
Fried had a good but not ideal first full year in pro ball, showing improved stuff and staying healthy but struggling more with command than anyone might have anticipated.
He worked in the low 90s all year but showed he can reach back for 96 when he needs it, and both his curveball and changeup will show plus, with the curveball a solid 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. Fried is extremely athletic with a loose if slightly long arm action, taking a good long stride toward the plate and turning over his pitching hand in plenty of time to bring it forward. He can repeat his delivery, but has a habit of nibbling as if he didn't have power stuff, trying to be too fine when he should try to blow a hitter away with velocity or a curveball breaking down and away from a left-handed hitter.
He's very competitive with great makeup, so no one doubts he'll make this adjustment in time and cut his walk rate as he moves up; he'll have to do so to continue to project as a future No. 2 starter.
Top level: Low Class A (Fort Wayne) | 2013 rank: 51
49Eddie Rosario, CF/2B
AGE: 22DOB: 9/28/91B/T: L/RHT: 6-0WT: 170
AVG: .302OBP: .350OPS: .810HR: 10SB: 10
Rosario is a mix of positives and negatives, a player who can really hit and run but hasn't settled into any position yet and whose makeup remains a major question, especially after a failed drug test that led to a suspension for the first 50 games of 2014.
At the plate, he has quick, strong hands and a good approach that leads to lots of contact but not walks; he's an above-average runner but has little or no idea what to do with it, posting a 50 percent success (or failure) rate in base stealing for the second straight year. In the field, he's solid-average in center field and would probably be plus in a corner, but the Twins' surfeit of center fielders has led them to try Rosario at second base, where he's fringy if you like him and a lost cause if you don't.
Rumors about Rosario being less than a great kid have been around for a while, but the drug suspension, for a second failed test for a drug of abuse, is the only tangible evidence that's the case so far. He needed those at-bats, as it's most likely at this point that he ends up back in the outfield, probably in left where he'll have to continue to produce 35-40 doubles power with a high average; missing 50 games at second base doesn't help his cause to stay at that position, either.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2013 rank: 65
50Yordano Ventura, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 6/3/91B/T: R/RHT: 5-11WT: 180
W-L: 8-6ERA: 3.14IP: 134.2SO: 155BB: 53
Ventura still looks a lot like a reliever to me, a slight, 5-foot-10 right-hander with a huge fastball but a strong fly ball tendency that may make him too homer-prone to start in the majors.
He has improved his arsenal since this time last year, however, as the Royals worked hard to help him improve his changeup to ensure he has the three-pitch mix to start. Ventura will sit in the mid-to-upper 90s even as a starter, hitting 99 mph for me in one 2013 outing and repeatedly hitting 97 when I saw him start in 2012. His best pitch is a power curveball in the low 80s, short but very sharp thanks to its velocity, while the changeup, maybe a grade 40 before the year, was flashing average by year-end. He's also mixing in a slider/cutter in the 90-92 mph range, a pitch he's overthrowing a little but could certainly use as a fourth option, especially if the changeup ends up more of a fringy weapon against lefties.
Ultimately, his role is going to come down to whether he can keep the ball in the park enough; the fastball is hard but lacks life and he doesn't get plane on it, so he'll have to command it extremely well or pitch more with his secondaries to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. Otherwise, he's a potentially explosive reliever who'd probably sit 97-100 in one- or two-inning stints.
Top level: Majors (Kansas City) | 2013 rank: Just missed
This is my seventh such ranking for Insider, with a lot of movement within the list from last year's but many of the same names still present. Six of last year's top 10 players are still on the list, and only 13 of last year's top 50 lost their eligibility for 2014. The list is heavy on position players up the middle, including shortstops near the top of the list and many potential everyday catchers further down. First base is extremely weak, and the pitching talent in the minors is still skewed heavily toward right-handed arms.
The Guidelines
Law's prospect rankings
Jan. 28: Farm system rankings
HOU No. 1 | MIN close | Luhnow
Jan. 29: Top 100 prospects
No. 1-50 | 51-100 | Law chat Jan. 30: AL East top 10s | ALC | ALW
Jan. 31: NL East top 10s | NLC | NLW
• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1. That means St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is ineligible, based on his days on the 25-man roster.
• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.
• I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Masahiro Tanaka this year (among others). I've also excluded Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, as he's already 27 years old, too old for a list that by design is comprised of players who are almost all 22 and under.
• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.
• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. Carlos Gomez is an 80 defender. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.
• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 in 2013. An "ineligible" player was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.
Top 100 index | No. 1-50 | No. 51-100
1Byron Buxton, CF
AGE: 20DOB: 12/18/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 189
AVG: .334OBP: .424OPS: .944HR: 12SB: 55
The best player available in the 2012 amateur draft turned out to be even better than expected in his first full year of pro ball, showing off four plus tools right away with a solid approach befitting his status as an older high school senior last spring.
Buxton is an outstanding athlete, like a 20-year-old Eric Davis with a grade-70 arm in center, among the fastest runners you will ever see on a baseball field and with the potential to grow into power in time. He's always had very quick wrists, but the Twins have done a great job of smoothing out Buxton's swing; he's more balanced through contact and already has more power because he keeps his back foot in contact with the ground so he gets more loft in his swing.
Buxton's instincts in the field were evident in high school, but he's proven to be a more advanced hitter than anyone anticipated, given his relatively advanced age for a high school draftee (more than 18 1/2 years old on draft day) and experience playing against mediocre prep competition in rural Georgia. He's comfortable running deep counts and recognizes balls and strikes well already, although his recognition of off-speed stuff lags a little behind that. This combination of quick-twitch actions with size and feel for the game is extremely unusual, something we see only once a decade or so.
Buxton could be the next 20-homer/50-stolen base player, with high averages and OBPs and great defense in center, which would make him a perennial MVP candidate for the Twins for years.
Top level: High Class A (Ft. Myers) | 2013 rank: 22
2Xander Bogaerts, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 10/1/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 185
AVG: .297OBP: .388OPS: .865HR: 15SB: 7
For all of Bogaerts' tools -- and he has many -- it was his patient approach at the plate that stood out in the Aruban's brief major league stint in 2013. Bogaerts has explosive potential as a hitter, as the ball comes off his bat exceptionally well, and the fact he sees the ball so well and makes good decisions as a hitter bodes well for his ability to adjust to major league pitching if he's handed an everyday job in 2014.
He has quick and very strong hands at the plate, with moderate hip rotation that still projects to plus power because of the speed and force of his swing. He's a natural shortstop, with soft hands and very good actions as well as plenty of arm for the left side of the infield. Although his frame could allow him to get too big for the position, he's maintained his conditioning well enough to stay at short for the near future, and the possibility of a 25- to 30-homer bat with strong on-base skills at that position gives Boston strong incentive to leave him there.
He could be Troy Tulowitzki with a little less arm, and that's an MVP-caliber player.
Top level: Majors (Boston) | 2013 rank: 5
3Addison Russell, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 1/23/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 195
AVG: .269OBP: .369OPS: .865HR: 17SB: 21
One of the best pure hitters in the minors, Russell is an incredibly gifted player who has a mature approach at the plate and some of the softest hands you'll ever see in the field.
Once a muscled-up third baseman, Russell dropped more than 20 pounds before his senior year of high school because he wanted to prove to scouts he could stay at shortstop, a decision that has worked out in every respect and also reflects his work ethic and humility as a ballplayer.
He has a simple, fluid right-handed swing with some loft through his finish to generate line drives; his bat speed is so good and the contact he makes is so hard that I still see more power in the future for him, 15-20 homers a year, if not more. In the field, he has the hands to be an elite shortstop and his actions are fine, with only his feet lagging slightly because he doesn't have the first-step quickness of traditional shortstops. He has plenty of arm for short or third and has shown he can take instruction well enough that no one is seriously talking about him moving to another position.
He had a slow start for high Class A Stockton in 2013, but from June 1 until his promotion to Triple-A, he hit .319/.421/.578 in 299 plate appearances as one of the youngest regulars in the California League. If the A's wanted to make him their everyday shortstop in 2014, it wouldn't be that far-fetched an idea. His hands and his eye are ready to play; his aptitude for the game is so good that the bat will catch up.
Top level: Triple-A (Sacramento) | 2013 rank: 10
4Carlos Correa, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 9/22/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
AVG: .320OBP: .405OPS: .872HR: 9SB: 10
Correa played the whole year at 18 in the low Class A Midwest League, one of the youngest regulars in any full-season circuit, and after a rough April, blew everyone away with his combination of physical potential and on-field acumen.
He hit .338/.410/.479 after an early-May DL stint caused by a pitch taken off the wrist, improving his approach at the plate as the season went on, and making far more contact than you'd expect of a player his age in his first year of pro ball -- he ranked above the league median in strikeout rate even with the bad start to his season.
Correa is a big kid, already 6-foot-4 and more than 200 pounds, likely on his way to 220 or so, which will push the boundaries of what typically plays at shortstop in the majors. But he's very athletic for his size, with solid footwork and a 70-grade arm. The tradeoff with his size will be power, as he already shows plenty of raw power and could end up in the 25-30 homer range.
He's got a quiet approach, short to the ball with great hand acceleration, moderately rotational, producing more line drives now than big flies but with the hand-eye coordination to do so down the road. Other than a lack of speed, he's close to the ideal prospect, and if he ends up following the Manny Machado route to third base, his bat will still make him a star.
Top level: Low Class A (Quad Cities) | 2013 rank: 24
5Oscar Taveras, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 6/19/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 200
AVG: .310OBP: .348OPS: .819HR: 5SB: 5
It was a lost year for Taveras, who spent most of 2013 hobbling around in a boot to protect an injured ankle that refused to heal. He remains the Cardinals' best prospect and is probably ready to take over in right field for the departed Carlos Beltran, but losing out on several hundred Triple-A at-bats won't help his development as a hitter or as a professional ballplayer.
Taveras has tremendous leverage at the plate, with a high-effort swing that he's only slightly toned down since he first emerged as a top prospect in low Class A. He's a great bad-ball hitter with power to all fields, rarely striking out, but rarely walking, either. He's a lot like a left-handed Vladimir Guerrero at the plate, with a better glove in right but less arm (there are sniper rifles less powerful than Vlad's arm).
Besides health, Taveras has been knocked for appearing to play with less than full effort at times, although much of that in 2013 may have been a function of trying to play when he could barely walk. I still think he peaks as a .300 hitter with 30-homer power, but the lack of Triple-A time may slow him down in the near term.
Top level: Triple-A (Memphis) | 2013 rank: 2
6Francisco Lindor, SS
AGE 21DOB: 11/14/93B/T: B/RHT: 5-11WT: 175
AVG: .303OBP: .380OPS: .787HR: 2SB: 25
Lindor continues to play well above his years, reaching Double-A while still 19 years old, walking more than he struck out and playing major league-caliber defense already. I'm not sure what remains for Lindor to learn before he's ready to take over the position in Cleveland, and while they could wait for him to fill out a little more physically, he's strong enough now that big league fastballs aren't going to knock the bat out of his hands.
Lindor is a plus runner and switch-hitter with a good swing on both sides of the plate; his right-handed swing is a little better, as he keeps his weight back longer, but his platoon splits flipped this year from 2012 and I think he'll produce against all types of pitching. His feel for the game has always been his greatest strength -- he has instincts and game awareness, and when you combine that with soft hands and a plus arm, you get a Gold Glove-type of defender at a critical position.
Lindor doesn't look like a power hitter but has exceptional lower-half strength and his swing will allow him to eventually get to that power even though he doesn't finish with a ton of loft. Even at 12-15 homers, which is probably a neutral projection for him, he'll be an All-Star thanks to grade-70 defense and OBPs up near .400 with plenty of doubles and 20-plus steals a year.
Top level: Double-A (Akron) | 2013 rank: 7
7Javier Baez, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 12/1/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 195
AVG: .282OBP: .341OPS: .920HR: 37SB: 20
Baez has the best bat speed of any hitter in the minors right now, and the ball explodes off his bat like he's splitting atoms with contact.
He's got 30-plus home run power, and showed at least some signs in the second half of 2012 that he could improve his plate discipline, working the count a little more effectively in some of his plate appearances. He's still prone to the at-bat where you watch him and wonder what he was thinking, the kind of brain cramp that won't be forgiven in the big leagues, but he can turn around the next time and hit a ball 400 feet the other way if the pitcher tries the same trick twice.
Baez is agile enough to handle shortstop, and could even be average or a tick better there, but his arm will play anywhere on the diamond and he's quick enough to handle second if the Cubs move him there. Wherever he plays, he'll probably start his career as a low-walk guy, maybe a .270/.310/.450 type of hitter right out of the chute, but the progress he showed in 2013 may give us hope he can improve that OBP in time and become an MVP candidate.
Top level: Double-A (Tennessee) | 2013 rank: 31
8Miguel Sano, 3B
AGE: 20DOB: 5/11/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
AVG: .280OBP: .382OPS: .992HR: 35SB: 11
Sano is the best pure offensive prospect in the minors, boasting 80-grade raw power and an easy swing that generates hard contact using his hips and legs, along with a history of making adjustments to his plan at the plate.
He reached Double-A at age 20 last year, and after a slow start there hit .258/.374/.609 after the Eastern League's All-Star Game. His power is slightly ahead of his ability to hit and make contact, but he has shown plenty of the latter skill, with strong walk rates since he reached full-season ball and the ability to pick up spin and changing speeds.
His defense is still the main question, as he's still rough at third base and that body is only going to get bigger as he gets into his 20s. Sano is also dealing with an elbow issue which shouldn't require Tommy John surgery, but the possibility he'll need that procedure remains on the table, and it would cost him a few hundred at-bats he needs and could prevent a late 2014 call-up.
If rehab alone does the trick, or a move to first base, Sano should be in the Twins' lineup on Opening Day of next year, on his way to 30- to 35-homer seasons with mid-.300 OBPs.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2013 rank: 11
9Archie Bradley, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/10/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 225
W-L: 14-5ERA: 1.84IP: 152.0SO: 162BB: 69
This is what they're supposed to look like: Big, strong, athletic, aggressive, with a pair of 70-grade pitches and promise of a third one.
Bradley, who passed up a scholarship to be a quarterback at Oklahoma after high school, effectively skipped high Class A, throwing just 28 innings there before a promotion to Double-A at age 20, and improved his performance across the board despite the two-level jump.
His command and control were both significantly better in 2013; his walk rate dropped by nearly 30 percent from low Class A to Double-A, and his rate of walks plus hit batsmen dropped by 40 percent, while he even slashed his wild pitch total (which could also be a function of who was catching him) from 17 to 2.
Bradley works with a 92-98 mph fastball and a power curveball in the low 80s with depth and right rotation. He needs more work on his changeup, and needs to use his large frame to stay on top of the fastball so it doesn't sit up in the zone. His arm works and he's extremely competitive on the mound, so the Diamondbacks were right to move him out of the hitter-friendly Cal League as quickly as possible.
He'll be ready to help the major league team by the second half of this year and projects as their future No. 1 starter.
Top level: Double-A (Mobile) | 2013 rank: 29
10Kyle Zimmer, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 9/13/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 215
W-L: 6-9ERA: 4.32IP: 108.1SO: 140BB: 36
Zimmer's season ended on a bit of a down note, as a bout of shoulder tendinitis led the Royals to shut him down for precautionary reasons (an MRI was clean), but before that he'd been on a run that established him as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation prospect who's not that far away from the majors.
Zimmer will show you two 70-grade pitches in addition to his 93-97 mph fastball -- a yellow hammer curveball with depth and angle, and a mid-80s changeup with great arm speed and some late action to it. He's an outstanding athlete, as you might expect from a converted position player, and has less mileage on his arm than most college products.
He does use a fourth pitch, a below-average slider that he needs to junk or at least limit to just a few pitches a game, and he has a tendency to rush off the rubber and speed up his entire delivery, costing him command and reducing his body control through the process.
Zimmer finished his season on fire, punching out 63 and walking eight in his last eight starts of the summer, half of them after a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and as long as his shoulder is happy he should move quickly to Triple-A. He's the future ace the Royals have been trying to develop since they traded Zack Greinke.
Top level: Double-A (Northwest Arkansas) | 2013 rank: 27
11Mark Appel, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/15/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 190
W-L: 3-1ERA: 3.79IP: 38.0SO: 33BB: 9
Appel came into last spring with an agenda on the mound after turning down a multimillion dollar offer from the Pirates, who took him eighth overall in the 2012 draft.
After hearing questions about his willingness to attack hitters and get swings and misses on his off-speed stuff, Appel tightened everything up for 2013, showing a little more velocity, a sharper breaking ball and a real willingness to claim the inner half of the plate and get into hitters' kitchens more than he had in the past. His decision to return to Stanford ended up paying off when the Astros selected him first overall in 2013.
On the right night, he'll show three plus pitches, sitting 92-97 mph on a fastball he complements with a wipeout slider and a low-to-mid-80s changeup with action and deception to it, but it's how he deployed those pitches last spring that impressed -- getting ahead with the fastball, changing eye levels, backing hitters off -- rather than just the pure stuff. Appel is a great athlete who repeats his delivery, getting out over his front side with a late release point and very clean mechanics.
Moving to every fifth day in pro ball might impact his stuff a little, but even if he loses 2 mph he's still a potential front-line starter with command and control of three above-average to plus offerings.
Top level: Low Class A (Quad Cities) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
12Jonathan Gray, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/5/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 255
W-L: 4-0ERA: 1.93IP: 37.1SO: 51BB: 8
Gray burst on the amateur scene last February when he hit 98 on a freezing Saturday in Oklahoma City on the college season's opening weekend, and it only got better from there, as he hit 100 mph a few weeks later and showed a venomous mid-80s slider that he could throw effectively to right- and left-handed batters.
The Oklahoma product's stock took a small hit when he tested positive for Adderall in MLB's predraft testing program, but after signing he made rapid improvement in the Rockies' system as Colorado made him throw the changeup more, to the point where it was flashing plus by the end of the summer.
Gray's a physical presence on the mound, with a lightning-quick arm, taking a long stride toward the plate with moderate hip rotation and accelerating his arm quickly after a slightly stiff landing. Other than the changeup, which is coming along faster than expected, his main issues are fastball command and maintaining his delivery when working out of the stretch.
He's a potential No. 1 starter with a very high floor as long as he stays healthy, as even fringy command will still lead to a ton of swings and misses on his primary two pitches.
Top level: High Class A (Modesto) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
13Gregory Polanco, RF
AGE: 22DOB: 9/14/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 220
AVG: .285OBP: .356OPS: .791HR: 12SB: 38
Polanco is one of the most exciting position-player prospects in the minors due to his combination of all five tools and a very mature approach to all parts of the game.
His main calling card now is his plus-plus defense in center, with great range due to his speed and much better reads on balls than he was making early last year. He shortened up his swing without sacrificing any power, maintaining his high contact rates despite spending half of 2013 at Double-A in just his second year in full-season leagues. He's a 70-grade runner out of the box, and his plate discipline and approach are way beyond what you'd expect from a player so young and inexperienced.
He's going to impact the game on offense, on defense and on the bases, a 25-homer guy with high OBPs and outstanding glovework in the outfield. The suddenly talent-rich Pirates can prepare to get even richer.
Top level: Triple-A (Indianapolis) | 2013 rank: 55
14Julio Urias, LHP
AGE: 17DOB: 8/12/96B/T: L/LHT: 5-11WT: 160
W-L: 2-0ERA: 2.48IP: 54.1SO: 67BB: 16
The Dodgers signed Urias -- who is the youngest player on this list by a wide margin -- during the same trip to Mexico that netted them Yasiel Puig, which may end up one of the most productive scouting runs in baseball history, as Urias has enormous upside if he can just stay healthy while Los Angeles gradually builds up his arm to handle a starter's workload.
He has four pitches now, with a fastball up to 95 mph and a plus curveball, but stood out more for his feel for pitching, carving low Class A hitters up with his full assortment and by locating his fastball around the zone. He's barely 5-foot-11, but is young enough that he could still be growing; his weight is of greater concern, as he's a little chubby already -- although guys like Fernando Valenzuela weren't exactly body-beautiful, either. He also has a drooping eyelid (ptosis) that scared some teams off, but the issue is cosmetic and doesn't affect his ability to pitch.
For Urias to reach his ceiling, it's about staying healthy, and continuing to improve his command as he faces tougher hitters who won't chase fastballs up or watch curveballs right over the heart of the plate.
Top level: Low Class A (Great Lakes) | 2013 rank: Unranked
15Kris Bryant, 3B
AGE: 22DOB: 1/4/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215
AVG: .336OBP: .390OPS: 1.078HR: 9SB: 1
A first-round talent out of high school who ended up at the University of San Diego, Bryant went second overall to the Cubs in 2013 after crushing NCAA leaderboards into singularities all spring, then proceeded to do the same in a month and a half of pro ball, slugging .688 over the summer and .727 in the Arizona Fall League.
Bryant has big-time power, especially to his pull side, with huge hip rotation after starting with a very wide base. He has no stride and a tendency to slightly overrotate; combined with just average bat speed, it creates some risk that his contact rates will drop as he faces better velocity in Double-A or higher. He's a good athlete for his size and has a chance to remain at third base; if he has to move to the outfield, he'll be above average to plus in right, with plenty of arm for any position on the field.
At worst, he'll be an impact power bat with good defense in right and adequate OBPs; his ceiling is a 30- to 35-homer bat with .350-plus OBPs and solid-average defense at third, the kind of bat you stick in the cleanup spot so you can build your lineup around him.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
16Taijuan Walker, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/13/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 210
W-L: 9-10ERA: 2.93IP: 141.1SO: 160BB: 57
Everyone still loves Walker's combination of athleticism, height and absurdly easy velocity, all of which earn comparisons to a young Doc Gooden, but with better makeup.
He took some small steps backward mechanically in 2013 while supplanting his curveball with a cutter, and while his ceiling remains very high, there's a little less probability than there was last winter. Walker gets into the mid-90s on his fastball with minimal effort, and the first part of his arm swing is easy and fluid. When he's on, his cutter is a swing-and-miss offering, although he's still developing his feel for it, time and attention that may be part of the deterioration of his curveball.
Walker's stride is shorter than ever now and he finishes very upright, which robs him of depth on his curveball and leaves his fastball finishing up in the zone, rather than with downhill plane from his height. He also wraps his wrist on the curveball and doesn't get the tight rotation he used to get on the pitch.
A pitcher with his classic frame who can hit 97 mph and has a potential out pitch (the cutter) is still an outstanding prospect, the best in the Mariners' system, but there will be unrealized potential here if he doesn't get back to finishing over his front side and getting that bite back on his curveball.
Top level: Majors | 2013 rank: 9
17Eddie Butler, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 3/13/91B/T: B/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
W-L: 9-5ERA: 1.80IP: 149.2SO: 143BB: 52
The Rockies took Butler in the second round of the 2012 draft on the basis of his combination of a plus fastball with tremendous sink and a hard slider, but his low arm slot and lack of a solid third pitch had many teams viewing him as a likely reliever in the majors.
His slot is still low, but Butler is more than a two-pitch guy now and the Radford alum profiles as a future top-of-the-rotation starter. Butler will work in the mid-90s, touching 98 mph from the windup, with big-time life on the pitch because of his low slot -- not just sink, but tailing life as well, producing a ground out/air out rate just under 60 percent across three levels this year.
His silder is still there and still plus in the mid-to-upper 80s, but the changeup was the real revelation this year; if you saw the Futures Game, you saw him throw one at 90 mph that moved almost like a screwball, and you probably heard the gasps from everyone in the scouts' seats. He probably didn't belong in the low Class A South Atlantic League to start the year, but he was just as effective at his next two stops, with no platoon split to speak of in high Class A or Double-A.
With three pitches and the ability to keep the ball down, he's at least a No. 2 starter, and you couldn't find a better fit for Coors Field than this kind of power and life.
Top level: Double-A (Tulsa) | 2013 rank: Unranked
18Corey Seager, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 4/27/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
AVG: .269OBP: .351OPS: .824HR: 16SB: 10
Seager proved to be an advanced hitter for his age when he tore up the low Class A Midwest League right out of high school, showing a good approach at the plate and developing power, especially after he came off the disabled list in early June. He has some mechanical issues to work out at the plate, weaknesses that high Class A and Arizona Fall League pitchers exploited, but they're fixable, and his size and athleticism give him star potential once he moves off shortstop to third base.
As a hitter, Seager has 25- to 30-homer potential thanks to outstanding hip rotation and a huge frame that is the main reason he'll eventually slide to third base. Late in 2013, he changed his stance, drifting and rolling over his front foot, which made him late on fastballs and gave him less time to recognize pitch types, but it wasn't something he did in high school or earlier in the year, and should be simple to correct. He's also hit southpaws well since entering pro ball, unusual for a left-handed high school hitter but a great sign for his future development.
Seager has very good hands and plenty of arm, but he'd be the largest shortstop in MLB history if he doesn't move, and most teams will opt for an above-average defender there. He'll be a above-average defender at third who gets on base and hits for power, which would make him one of the best third basemen in the majors when he reaches that peak.
Top level: High Class A (Rancho Cucamonga) | 2013 rank: 46
19George Springer, OF
AGE: 24DOB: 9/19/89B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 200
AVG: .303OBP: .411OPS: 1.010HR: 37SB: 45
Springer may be a mold-breaker, a player whose raw abilities are so outsized that he can overcome contact problems that would sink almost any lesser player.
He grades out highly in all five tools, with plus power already and 70 speed once he's underway. His swing has a ton of leverage in it, almost knocking him over at times, but his hands are so quick that he makes a lot of hard line-drive contact -- when he's not swinging and missing, which he does often, in large part because he makes no adjustment at all with two strikes.
He's continued to improve his routes in center field and probably will stay there unless Houston ends up with a 70- or 80-grade defender to replace him. Springer could be a 30/30 player who draws plenty of walks; his ultimate value will depend on the contact he makes still being hard contact.
I could easily see him being a consistently high-BABIP guy who strikes out 180 times a year and still hits .280 or better, because of how quick his hands are, and that player in center field would be an All-Star.
Top level: Triple-A (Oklahoma City) | 2013 rank: 43
20Tyler Glasnow RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 8/23/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-7WT: 195
W-L: 9-3ERA: 2.18IP: 111.1SO: 164BB: 61
Glasnow was 88-91 mph as a high school senior but had a ton of physical projection to his 6-foot-7, broad-shouldered frame, some of which has already started to appear and has kicked up his velocity into the mid-90s.
His fastball is heavy and hard to elevate, so while he doesn't command the pitch that well yet -- not uncommon for a tall, lanky pitcher who's working to get those long levers working consistently -- low Class A hitters couldn't do much with the pitch.
He throws both a curveball and slider, with the slider the better pitch right now, hard and tight at 84-87, while the curveball has good 11-to-5 break and sits in the upper 70s. His command and control lag behind his stuff, as he's only a fair athlete and needs more reps to learn to improve his body control, but he did show gradual improvement in strike-throwing as the season went on. In his last three outings of 2013 he faced 54 batters over 14 innings, allowing one hit, walking 10 and punching out 24.
The scariest part about Glasnow is that he could still get stronger, and it's not hard to imagine him with three plus pitches, bumping 98 with plane and cleaning up the mess at the plate with either of his breaking balls.
Top level: Low Class A (West Virginia) | 2013 rank: Unranked
21Lucas Giolito, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 7/14/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 225
W-L: 2-1ERA: 1.96IP: 36.2SO: 39BB: 14
Giolito might have been the first high school right-hander ever taken first overall in the draft had he not suffered a thickness tear to one of his right elbow ligaments in March of 2012, eventually requiring Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound as early as you can possibly return from that operation, back to hitting 98 mph again with great downhill plane that prevented hitters from elevating the ball against him all summer.
His curveball flashed plus-plus again, and his feel for the pitch will likely return with more reps; while he does need to work on his changeup, it was the best it's ever been during instructional league this past September, with good separation from the fastball and better arm speed. He's a very hard-working kid who does a lot of the little things well, like fielding his position and holding runners, which endears him to old-school coaches who place a lot of emphasis on those "fundamentals." I like those too, but I don't care as much when the pitcher is 6-foot-6 and has a chance for two 70-grade pitches with command and feel.
He might move slowly in 2014, as he's just 19 years old and will be in his first full year back from the elbow surgery, but he projects as a No. 1 starter not too far down the road.
Top level: Short-season Class A (Auburn) | 2013 rank: 77
22Raul Mondesi, SS
AGE: 18DOB: 7/27/95B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 165
AVG: .261OBP: .311OPS: .672HR: 7SB: 24
Mondesi didn't turn 18 until the last week of July, but spent the entire year in the low Class A Midwest League as one of its youngest regulars, thanks to his plus defense at short (arguably a grade 70) and outstanding feel for the game, two attributes that earn him comparisons to Texas infielder Jurickson Profar.
The son of the former Dodgers Rookie of the Year with the same name, Mondesi has his father's face but not his body type, which is a good thing, as he's not likely to end up slow and fat as his father did in his 30s. Raul Jr. is lithe and quick, with easy, natural actions on all kinds of plays at shortstop, with a plus arm to go with it.
At the plate, he needs to get stronger first and foremost, and tends to glide a little over his front side, something he can make up for because his hands are so quick; his approach is solid, considering his youth, and he keeps his hands inside the ball really well for such a young player.
I don't see him developing his father's power, as he's more of a line-drive hitter, but he has a rotational swing that could get him to 40-odd doubles in the majors, and I wouldn't be shocked if he broke out this year at age 18 the way Profar did at 18 in 2011.
Top level: Low Class A (Lexington) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
23Kevin Gausman, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 1/6/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 3-6ERA: 3.51IP: 82.0SO: 82BB: 14
It wasn't the ideal year for Gausman in 2013. He probably should have been left in the minors for a few more months before he was given so much as a spot start in the majors, where he struggled over 47 ⅔ IP, but he looked more like his old self later in the year when he resumed throwing his slider more often.
He has a strong three-pitch arsenal to project as a No. 2 starter, with a fastball that sits 94-97 mph and has touched 100 in shorter looks, with good life down in the zone, as well as a plus changeup that has long been his primary out pitch, with good arm speed and a very severe late tumble. His slider has come and gone since the Orioles drafted him, but at the end of September he used it more and it became sharper and more consistent, 83-86 with late bite, sometimes sweeping it away from right-handers but other times giving it an almost 11-to-5 break, although he was working in relief at the time.
He was in the majors too soon and could use a good 15-20 starts in the minors to focus on improving his command and feel for that pitch, but the promise he showed with it in relief -- MLB hitters failed to put any of the last 25 sliders he threw in 2013 in play -- should give Orioles fans a lot of optimism.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2013 rank: 26
24Noah Syndergaard, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 8/29/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-6WT: 240
W-L: 9-4ERA: 3.06IP: 117.2SO: 133BB: 28
Syndergaard had an awesome 2013 season from start to finish, improving in multiple ways as the season went on while putting up superb numbers as a 20-year-old in high Class A and Double-A, and still has room for further improvement.
He already has the build of a workhorse starter, with velocity up to 98 mph that's easy like Sunday morning and the ability to get downhill plane on it when he stays on top of the ball. His changeup is comfortably plus already, but his curveball, a grade-40ish pitch in high school and early in his pro career, is already solid average, and plays up because he gets on top of the ball and releases so close to the plate; hitters swing and miss at it like it's a sharper, harder pitch.
It's very unusual to have a pitcher this young show this kind of athleticism, present command and pure stuff and even if Syndergaard doesn't improve further, he's at least a quality third starter who can handle 200-inning workloads, but the curveball could get a little tighter and push him up to a No. 2 or better.
Top level: Double-A (Binghamton) | 2013 rank: 97
25Braden Shipley, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 2/22/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 0-3ERA: 4.99IP: 39.2SO: 40BB: 14
Shipley fell to the 15th spot in the 2013 draft thanks mostly to a run on bats in the 10 picks before the Diamondbacks selected, but that just made him a great value for Arizona, getting the sixth-ranked player on my own board, a super-athletic converted position player who already had a plus secondary pitch in his changeup.
After he signed, the Diamondbacks had Shipley correct a problem with his hand break that made it too easy for hitters to pick up the ball, but once he corrected that, he found it easier to get on top of the ball, and the curveball his college coach rarely called started to emerge as a plus pitch. (At Nevada, he would usually be prohibited from throwing the curveball at all until the fifth inning.)
Shipley pitches at 92-95 mph with his heater but can flash a little higher than that, with a legitimate big league out pitch already in his changeup, with good deception at 83-86 as well as heavy late action. His stride is very long toward the plate and his arm accelerates quickly once he turns it over; as you'd expect from a converted guy, he fields his position well and has the body control to repeat his delivery.
If the curveball he showed late in 2013 is a permanent feature he's on his way to being the No. 2 starter in Arizona not too far down the line.
Top level: Low Class A (South Bend) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
26Jorge Soler, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 2/25/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
AVG: .281OBP: .343OPS: .810HR: 8SB: 5
Soler, who the Cubs signed for $30 million out of Cuba in 2012, was 55 games into a promising first full season in the minors when he fouled a ball off his leg, breaking a bone and missing out on a likely mid-year promotion to Double-A.
He returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, looking rusty but physically imposing, with a good 15-20 pounds of added muscle since I'd seen him the previous summer in rookie ball. Soler has outstanding hand speed and acceleration at the plate, with big-time power when he concentrates on staying back and letting his hips work to add leverage to his swing; he does have a tendency to cut across the ball rather than finishing toward the middle of the field, which reduces his power. His plan at the plate has been better than anticipated, and he's going to be above-average to plus in right field.
Soler was also suspended at one point for an on-field incident during which he threatened the opposing dugout with a bat after a hard collision at second base (and some words exchanged), a sign that while he's very competitive, he's still got some maturing and adjusting to U.S. baseball culture ahead of him. I see explosive offensive potential, with easy plus power and enough feel for the zone to be a middle-of-the-order bat.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2013 rank: 42
27Jameson Taillon, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/18/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-6WT: 235
W-L: 5-10ERA: 3.73IP: 147.1SO: 143BB: 52
Taillon's a very good starting pitching prospect, but might fall a little short of fan expectations because the whole is less than the sum of the parts.
He has the raw ingredients to be an ace -- size, velocity (92-98, often more 94-9
, a hard-breaking slider, and a history of throwing strikes. He can use the breaking ball to get left-handers out, backdooring it in counts where they might be looking for his changeup.The problem is that hitters get a good look at the ball out of his hands, and say that his fastball is easier to hit than the velocity would indicate. He also has limited feel for his changeup, which comes in too hard and misses up to his arm side, possibly because he's overthrowing it. Taillon just turned 22 and is already in Triple-A, even with those areas for improvement, and could probably be a league-average starter for the Pirates by Opening Day of 2015, with a good probability of becoming a top 30-40 starter in the league at his peak.
Top level: Triple-A (Indianapolis) | 2013 rank: 20
28Albert Almora, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 4/16/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
AVG: .329OBP: .376OPS: .842HR: 3SB: 4
Almora lacks the huge upside of the three Cubs position player prospects ahead of him on this list because his tools aren't as explosive, but he makes up for that with incredible instincts and game awareness that make him a very high-probability prospect who looks like a lock to spend a decade in the big leagues in center field.
He gets some of the best reads off the bat I've ever seen from an outfield prospect, so although he's a below-average runner he still plays a plus center field. At the plate, Almora has a clean, controlled swing that produces a lot of hard contact, with hip rotation for future average to above-average power. He has great hand-eye coordination that allows him to square up a lot of pitches, but has to learn to rein himself in and wait for a pitch he can drive to make full use of his hit and power tools -- and if that means taking a few more walks, well, both he and the Cubs could use that right about now.
Almora won't end up the superstar that the Cubs are hoping to get from Baez/Bryant/Soler, but should be a solid producer for years who sneaks on to a few All-Star teams as the baseball world learns to appreciate what he can do in the field.
Top level: Low Class A (Kane County) | 2013 rank: 33
29Robert Stephenson, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 1/24/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 190
W-L: 7-7ERA: 2.99IP: 114.1SO: 136BB: 35
The Lighthouse made solid progress this year despite missing about a month with a hamstring injury that still nagged at him even after he reached Double-A in mid-August.
Despite the leg issue, Stephenson still showed premium stuff, a 93-98 mph fastball and a power breaking ball in the low 80s that is almost unhittable, especially for right-handed batters. His changeup still has a ways to go, although the Reds are forcing him to throw a certain number each game so he doesn't just rely on blowing his fastball by left-handed hitters (which he can do, at least at the lower levels).
Stephenson stays over the rubber well and takes a long stride toward the plate, but he's pretty late turning his pitching arm over and is stiff when he gets out over that front side. He also has a head-bobble after release, which is usually a bad sign for the pitcher's command, but in Stephenson's case command isn't a problem, nor is control; he walked just 22 batters across both A-ball leagues this year, just 5.6 percent of the men he faced.
He'll pitch at 21 years old in 2014, likely starting in Double-A, and the Reds have handled him carefully enough to keep him healthy; as the changeup goes, so goes Stephenson, with that No. 1 starter upside still within reach.
Top level: Double-A (Pensaocola) | 2013 rank: 48
30Aaron Sanchez, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/1/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 190
W-L: 4-5ERA: 3.34IP: 86.1SO: 75BB: 40
The gap between Sanchez's ability and his results grew a little this year, a season when the latter should have been catching up to the former as he gained experience and his body matured. He continues to show top-of-the-rotation stuff, but not the command or control required to get there, and alterations to his delivery were at least one reason why.
Sanchez has hit 99 mph and sits 92-96 with very little effort to get there, and shows four pitches, led by a hard two-plane curveball in the upper 70s with shape and depth to it. He generates a lot of ground balls already, but the Jays tried to have him switch to a sinker grip this year, resulting in an outing where he faced nine batters, walked four, and couldn't finish an inning of work.
His delivery has also regressed, as he now has a terribly short stride and finishes with his torso almost completely upright, so his fastball rides up, his head jerks at release, and he doesn't get the same finish to his breaking stuff. Upright finishes are also associated with higher risk of arm injuries, so there's every reason to try to get him striding longer and finishing out front -- it'll keep him healthy and make him a better pitcher.
Until that happens, though, he's going to pitch below the raw grades of his stuff, which would be a shame given his arm and great makeup.
Top level: High Class A (Dunedin) | 2013 rank: 19
31Dylan Bundy, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 11/15/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 195
W-L: 9-3ERA: 2.08IP: 103.2SO: 119BB: 28
Note: Stats listed are from the 2012 season.
Bundy missed all of 2013 after tearing a ligament in his right elbow (an injury that was first called a forearm strain, then a flexor mass strain), which led to late-June surgery that probably puts him out until about the same point in 2014. When healthy, he was the best pitching prospect in baseball, boasting a fastball up to 99 mph, a wipeout cutter that he could command like a 10-year veteran, a hard curveball and a developing changeup.
He has an outstanding delivery -- the mere act of pitching does bad things to an elbow -- but Bundy generated most of his power from his lower half, and if we graded conditioning and work ethic Bundy would have graded out as an 80 in both. It may take a half-season or longer for Bundy's command and feel for his off-speed stuff to return, and I hope that the Orioles' emphasis on getting him quicker to the plate takes a backseat until he's back to full strength.
He's an incredibly special talent who should still be an impact player if the surgery proves to be nothing more than an extended vacation for him.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2013 rank: 3
32Nick Castellanos, 3B
AGE: 21DOB: 3/4/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 210
AVG: .276OBP: .343OPS: .793HR: 18SB: 4
The Tigers' trade of Prince Fielder allows Miguel Cabrera to move to first base and clears the way for Castellanos -- who had been getting reps in the outfield in deference to Cabrera -- to return to the infield, which helps him as he's more valuable if he can prove he can handle third base. Castellanos is a batter first, posting an above-the-median batting line as the Triple-A International League's youngest position player (minimum 300 plate appearances), finishing in the top 20 in slugging and leading the league in total bases.
He's very strong for a 21-year-old, with a simple, repeatable swing that starts with a deep load and is heavily rotational, leading to that above-average power that will end up plus, probably 25-30 homers per year, even in Comerica Park. He tightened up his approach at the plate this year, recognizing after reaching Double-A last year that he needed to be more disciplined about pitches just off the corners. He'll need work at third base, as he's a below-average runner without much natural quickness, but with better footwork and more reps at the position he should end up at least fringe-average.
If he costs them five runs a year in the field, which I doubt, he'll more than make up for it with his bat, hitting .290-.300 with doubles and homers.
Top level: Majors (Detroit) | 2013 rank: 38
33Austin Hedges, C
AGE: 21DOB: 8/18/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190
AVG: .260OBP: .333OPS: .723HR: 4SB: 8
The minors' premier defensive catcher is one of the best bets on the list to have a long MLB career, although it remains to be seen what kind of role he has. His glove will keep him playing as long as he's healthy, regardless of whether or not he hits, but he has the raw power to become an impact bat for the position as well.
Hedges is as natural and smooth a receiver as any in the minors, with one of the strongest and most accurate arms as well. At the plate, he's reduced his stride and is more balanced than he was a year ago, still showing big-time rotation and loft in his swing, but his power wasn't evident on the field this year, only in BP, although some of that may have been a hangover from getting hit on the left hand with a pitch in early May. His contact rates are very strong for a hitter so young, as he was well below the Cal League median for strikeout rate despite being the second-youngest position player in the league after Addison Russell, so it's about getting into better counts to drive the ball, not an inability to hit.
He's ranked here because I see 20-25 homer power potential with a .250-.260 average, which, with plus defense, would make him an All-Star.
Top level: Double-A (San Antonio) | 2013 rank: 36
34Andrew Heaney, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 6/5/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 190
W-L: 9-3ERA: 1.60IP: 95.1SO: 89BB: 26
The Marlins' first pick (ninth overall) in the 2012 draft, Heaney showed himself to be more than just a "pitchability" lefty, working with a solid-average fastball and two plus secondary pitches as he dominated high Class A and came close to doing the same in Double-A in six August starts.
Heaney comes from an arm slot a little under three-quarters and cuts himself off slightly, but those two points both add to his deception, and the way he can manipulate the ball makes him even harder for hitters to square up. His slider and changeup are both in the upper 70s/low 80s, with the slider showing good tilt and angle and the changeup bringing good arm speed and downward fade, and he commands all three pitches.
If he threw harder and had a somewhat cleaner delivery, he'd be a top 10 or 15 overall prospect, but as is I think he's a good No. 3 starter trending up toward a No. 2 because of his control and how hard it is for hitters to pick up the ball.
Top level: Double-A (Jacksonville) | 2013 rank: Unranked
35Austin Meadows, CF
AGE: 18DOB: 5/3/95B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200
AVG: .316OBP: .424OPS: .977HR: 7SB: 3
Meadows, who ranked fifth on my 2013 draft board, went ninth overall to the Pirates in the pick they received for failing to sign Mark Appel in the previous draft, and the Bucs had to be celebrating when the best athlete in the class was still on the board for them with that selection.
He was a two-sport star in high school and seemed a little raw in baseball, especially at the plate, getting notice more for his explosive power/speed combination and the potential for his 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame to put on another 20 or so pounds of strength. He's a plus runner who can play center as long as he doesn't outgrow it and lose speed; his arm is fringy and would push him to left, raising the bar his bat has to reach for him to be a star.
Meadows has a sound left-handed swing, with good bat speed and the rotation to generate power from his legs as well as his arms; his finish is a little flat, and he could add a small stride rather than just a toe-tap. The Pirates have already made some minor tweaks, but were also thrilled to see that he had more feel at the plate and in center than anyone thought based on his spring.
He might have the best shot of anyone in the 2013 draft class to explode into an 8-WAR player, the way Mike Trout -- another huge, athletic center fielder who proved more polished than forecasted -- did after 2009.
Top level: Short-season Class A (Jamestown) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
36Travis d'Arnaud
AGE: 25DOB: 2/10/89B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
AVG: .286OBP: .420OPS: .934HR: 3SB: 0
d'Arnaud would be a top-10 prospect if he could stay on the field, but 2013 was yet another injury-shortened year for the twice-traded prospect who has reached 400 plate appearances in just two of his six full pro seasons.
When he's on the field, he's an impact player on both sides of the ball, featuring outstanding receiving (including pitch-framing) ability, an above-average arm, and good relationships with pitchers, as well as above-average power that should lead to 20-25 homers if he plays a full season. His hand-eye coordination is excellent but his approach isn't as polished, as he's not a patient hitter and struggled terribly against both sliders and curveballs in his brief major league time in 2013.
A premium defensive catcher who even hits .240 with power is still a highly valuable commodity right now, as replacement level at catcher is low enough to give a GM the bends, so for d'Arnaud the main issue is just trying to avoid the trainer's room so he can get 450-500 plate appearances in 2014.
Top level: Majors (New York Mets) | 2013 rank: 14
37Dominic Smith, 1B
AGE: 18DOB: 6/15/95B/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 185
AVG: .301OBP: .398OPS: .837HR: 3SB: 2
Smith was the best pure hitter in the 2013 draft class, sporting a beautiful left-handed swing and flashing above-average power, along with plus defense at first base and an arm that reached 92 mph when he was on the mound in high school.
When Smith keeps his weight back, he generates big-time power from his lower half, with hard contact thanks to quick, strong wrists. He had a habit of drifting too quickly over his front leg, something the Mets seem to have worked on eliminating. He's a low-heartbeat hitter, approaching at-bats as if he were much older and more experienced. Smith is athletic but not a runner, and his footwork has limited him to first base, where he projects as a 70-grade defender thanks to incredibly soft hands. He has areas to work on, mostly recognition of breaking stuff and keeping his focus on using the whole field, which is minor stuff compared with the bigger issues of swing mechanics and plate discipline.
His ceiling is an impact bat at first, a cleanup hitter with 25-30 homer power and .300-plus averages to go with outstanding defense. I'd like to see him challenged with an assignment to the low Class A Sally League this year, as he's too advanced a hitter for short-season ball.
Top level: Rookie (Kingsport) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
38Hunter Harvey, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 12/9/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 175
W-L: 0-1ERA: 1.76IP: 25.1SO: 33BB: 6
The son of former big league closer Bryan Harvey, Hunter went to Baltimore with the 22nd overall pick of the 2013 draft, thanks to those bloodlines, a fastball consistently in the 90-94 range, and a hammer curveball he seemed to manipulate into different shapes.
He's a projectable kid, but the velocity ticked up right after he signed, as he was sitting 94-97 mph by the end of the summer and his command was just as good as if not better than what it was in the spring. His changeup flashes above-average but he still needs reps with it as it lags well behind his other two pitches; in a minuscule sample, lefties hit him much harder (.350 batting average against) than right-handed hitters (.154) did in pro ball. His arm slot is high, which gives depth to the curveball but can make it tough to turn over a changeup, which he'll need to combat lefties.
The Orioles have started to try to clean up and simplify his delivery, getting him more online to the plate. He's going to put on another 15-20 pounds, and if the changeup comes along he might end up in the same tier as Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.
Top level: Short-season Class A (Aberdeen) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
39Matt Wisler, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 9/12/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 10-6ERA: 2.78IP: 136.0SO: 131BB: 33
The Padres' seventh-round selection in 2011 had a solid full-season debut in 2012, but last year was his coming out party as he improved in just about every possible way, from stuff to command to confidence on the mound.
Wisler works with two plus pitches already, a fastball at a legit 93-96 mph and a slider that's a grade 60 or a 70, working consistently in the bottom of the zone and showing no fear when attacking hitters on the inner half or even when falling behind in the count. The main knock on Wisler is his delivery, as he doesn't use his lower half as much as he should and he pronates his pitching arm late, with his front foot already touching the ground. That leads to some inconsistency in his slot, but he hasn't had any trouble yet with command or control, only with his feel for his changeup, which he can't turn over properly when his arm drifts down.
He's an 80-grade competitor and a diligent worker, giving him a better chance than most pitchers to reach his ceiling, which for him is a No. 2 starter who can handle 200-plus innings a year.
Top level: Double-A (San Antonio) | 2013 rank: Unranked
40Lucas Sims, RHP
AGE: 19DOB: 5/10/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 195
W-L: 12-4ERA: 2.62IP: 116.2SO: 134BB: 46
Sims came on right from the start of 2013, his first full year in pro ball after Atlanta took him with the 21st overall pick in the 2012 draft.
Still just 19 years old, Sims works in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 96 frequently, with a power breaking ball that's already plus -- showing good depth and 11-to-5 break -- while his hard changeup improved as well this year with good fading action and adequate arm speed. He's put on 10-15 pounds since high school, helping him throw a little harder and maintain his velocity better into games. It's not an ideal delivery, as he pronates his elbow a little late and tends to fly open, but his arm is also very loose and once he gets it turned over it's extremely quick.
Sims still has a little room to fill out and add more velocity or just increase his potential workloads, and if the effort required to speed that arm up doesn't affect him -- or if Atlanta gets him to generate more torque from his legs -- he's a potential No. 2 starter for the Braves.
Top level: Low Class A (Rome) | 2013 rank: Unranked
41Joc Pederson, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 4/21/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-1WT: 185
AVG: .278OBP: .381OPS: .878HR: 22SB: 31
I whiffed on Pederson last year after he looked terrible in the AFL, a stint when (in hindsight) it seems obvious he was exhausted and couldn't show off any of his above-average tools. That became clear in the first half of this season, as Pederson showed power and speed as well as a great approach against right-handed pitchers, all while playing above-average or better defense in center.
I think he profiles better in right, as he's got the arm for it and most teams will have a better option on defense in center, but he won't hurt anyone out there if he ends up the starter. At the plate he has plus raw power already, trending up, with outstanding hip rotation after a moderately deep load back below his right shoulder, and a solid weight transfer as he strides into contact.
Pederson's only real weakness is facing left-handed pitching, as lefties dominated him this year across the board (.206/.282/.382 line) and he struggled to make contact against lefty breaking stuff. His father threw him BP left-handed when he was growing up, making this issue a bit of a surprise, and he's young enough to overcome it with experience; his front leg can get a little soft and roll over, which may (or may not) be connected. That's probably the only thing standing between him and becoming an All-Star big league outfielder.
Top level: Double-A (Chattanooga) | 2013 rank: Unranked
42Henry Owens, LHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/21/92B/T: L/LHT: 6-6WT: 205
W-L: 11-6ERA: 2.67IP: 135.0SO: 169BB: 68
Owens was prospect No. 101 on last year's rankings, first in the column of guys who just missed the main list, but he showed across-the-board improvement in 2013 and now projects as a No. 3 starter with a chance to be a good No. 2.
He has always been a strike-thrower, but was working in the upper 80s as a starter in high school and right after signing, showing 90-92 in short stints. In 2013, he was working at that higher range as a starter and his curveball got sharper and harder as well, now more 72-74 as opposed to the upper 60s he showed the year before. The curve will settle in as an average to slightly above-average pitch, but he already has the swing-and-miss weapon in his plus-plus changeup, made even more effective because hitters do not pick up the ball out of his hand.
Owens has always had feel and control, but now the stuff is catching up to his polish and he's not far away from contributing in Fenway.
Top level: Double-A (Portland) | 2013 rank: Just missed
43Eduardo Rodriguez, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 4/07/93B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 200
W-L: 10-7ERA: 3.41IP: 145.0SO: 125BB: 49
A gut-feel choice for me last year at No. 100, Rodriguez came out throwing well from the start of the season, showing three pitches, two above-average and one with promise, earning a midyear promotion to Double-A at age 20.
Rodriguez will sit 91-94 mph with his fastball, mostly four-seamers with the occasional two-seamer, and has a plus changeup in the 84-88 range with good arm speed and hard fading action to his arm side. His slider is inconsistent, mostly 82-83, short and sometimes flat but other times sharp enough for him to backfoot a right-handed hitter. His arm swing is sound, although he's not consistent off the rubber, staying over it on some pitches and drifting forward on others, with more effort in his delivery when he drifts.
Rodriguez won't turn 21 until April and has both physical and mental development ahead of him, with the stuff to be a No. 2 starter but not yet the feel or command.
Top level: Double-A (Bowie) | 2013 rank: 100
44Jorge Alfaro, C
AGE: 20DOB: 6/11/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 185
AVG: .265OBP: .346OPS: .809HR: 18SB: 18
Alfaro, one of my two sleepers for Texas going into 2012 (along with Cody Buckel, who broke out in 2012 but missed all of 2013 with the "yips"), repeated low Class A Hickory for most of last season after only about a half-season's worth of at-bats there the previous year, but made visible progress in many aspects of his game the second time around.
He has always had the raw tools to be a superstar, with an 80-grade arm and 80 power, but had no discernible plan at the plate other than "swing, then swing," and his tools behind the plate weren't matched by the effort or energy required to be an asset at the position. In 2013, he grew up, taking better at-bats and working harder at all aspects of his game, with good enough results for a late-season promotion to Myrtle Beach.
He's an unusual specimen for a catcher, built like a corner outfielder but athletic like a middle infielder, with the quick-twitch muscles of a player like Justin Upton, just lacking the finer things like instincts and effort required to convert them into performance. His 2013 season shows those aspects of his game are now coming, and if Myrtle Beach (a brutal park for power) doesn't stifle him, he could start to move more quickly toward an everyday major league job.
Top level: High Class A (Myrtle Beach) | 2013 rank: Unranked
45Clint Frazier, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 9/6/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190
AVG: .297OBP: .362OPS: .868HR: 5SB: 3
If you take Javier Baez out of the discussion, Frazier probably has the best bat speed of any player in organized baseball, with furious hand acceleration producing hard contact and surprising power for a player his size.
His value is all in his bat, as he's almost certain to end up in left field because he's an average-at-best runner with a fringy to below-average arm, although he has the aptitude to play up the middle if the situation forced it. That bat projects well at any position, however, thanks to those unbelievably quick wrists and a sound swing that doesn't leave him collapsing as so many "swing as hard as you can" hitters do. Frazier's main developmental need is recognizing off-speed stuff, which was a problem for him in high school, and even A-ball pitchers who have a little command of their breaking pitches will present him with a challenge.
His floor is low, as he has to hit to have value, but he's got an All-Star ceiling if he improves his recognition and can maintain high batting averages with 20-25 home run output.
Top level: Rookie (Arizona League) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
46J.P. Crawford, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 1/11/95B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
AVG: .308OBP: .405OPS: .805HR: 1SB: 14
Crawford could have gone as high as 10th in the 2013 draft, as he was one of the Blue Jays' final choices for their pick in that spot, and was in every team's mix on down to the Phillies at 16, who were on him all spring as one of the draft's only true shortstops.
The Phils aren't afraid of slow-development guys, which Crawford appeared to be as a physically immature player who had present speed and some feel to hit. For these reasons his performance in the Gulf Coast League was surprising -- he finished second in the league in OBP and walked as often as he struck out, all while playing above-average defense at shortstop. He even held his own in a brief trial in low-A, an aggressive assignment for an 18-year-old just out of high school.
Crawford needs some help with his first step and actions around the bag at second base, and he's going to have to get stronger so he can continue to hit as he faces better fastballs, but the Phillies may have just nabbed an impact player in the middle of the diamond.
Top level: Low Class A (Lakewood) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
47David Dahl, OF
AGE: 19DOB: 4/1/94B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 185
AVG: .275OBP: .310OPS: .735HR: 0SB: 2
I'm sure Dahl wishes 2013 never happened, as it began with a punitive demotion to extended spring training after just one game in the Sally League and ended in mid-May with a torn hamstring that refused to heal until instructional league. The demotion came after Dahl missed a team flight, a one-time event that by all accounts was an outlier for Dahl, and by instructs he was in great physical shape and able to move around without limitations. That puts us almost where we were last year with Dahl, except that he's lost about 350-400 at-bats of development that might have sped him to the majors.
On the field, Dahl boasts strong tools across the board, with above-average speed now that may trend down as his frame fills out, a variable that will determine whether he stays in center or moves to right field; his arm is strong enough for either spot and he'll likely show plus range in a corner. His real impact will come at the plate, where he's got a very quick bat and is short and direct to the ball, with good loft in his finish for future-plus power, possibly projecting as a 25 homer, 20 steals guy with good OBPs.
He looked very advanced at the plate in 2012 and may not suffer too much from the time off. He'll turn 20 on April 1, and even if he starts back in Asheville should be ready to spend most of the year in high-A or above.
Top level: Low Class A (Asheville) | 2013 rank: 37
48Max Fried, LHP
AGE: 20DOB: 1/18/94B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 185
W-L: 6-7ERA: 3.49IP: 118.2SO: 100BB: 56
Fried had a good but not ideal first full year in pro ball, showing improved stuff and staying healthy but struggling more with command than anyone might have anticipated.
He worked in the low 90s all year but showed he can reach back for 96 when he needs it, and both his curveball and changeup will show plus, with the curveball a solid 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale. Fried is extremely athletic with a loose if slightly long arm action, taking a good long stride toward the plate and turning over his pitching hand in plenty of time to bring it forward. He can repeat his delivery, but has a habit of nibbling as if he didn't have power stuff, trying to be too fine when he should try to blow a hitter away with velocity or a curveball breaking down and away from a left-handed hitter.
He's very competitive with great makeup, so no one doubts he'll make this adjustment in time and cut his walk rate as he moves up; he'll have to do so to continue to project as a future No. 2 starter.
Top level: Low Class A (Fort Wayne) | 2013 rank: 51
49Eddie Rosario, CF/2B
AGE: 22DOB: 9/28/91B/T: L/RHT: 6-0WT: 170
AVG: .302OBP: .350OPS: .810HR: 10SB: 10
Rosario is a mix of positives and negatives, a player who can really hit and run but hasn't settled into any position yet and whose makeup remains a major question, especially after a failed drug test that led to a suspension for the first 50 games of 2014.
At the plate, he has quick, strong hands and a good approach that leads to lots of contact but not walks; he's an above-average runner but has little or no idea what to do with it, posting a 50 percent success (or failure) rate in base stealing for the second straight year. In the field, he's solid-average in center field and would probably be plus in a corner, but the Twins' surfeit of center fielders has led them to try Rosario at second base, where he's fringy if you like him and a lost cause if you don't.
Rumors about Rosario being less than a great kid have been around for a while, but the drug suspension, for a second failed test for a drug of abuse, is the only tangible evidence that's the case so far. He needed those at-bats, as it's most likely at this point that he ends up back in the outfield, probably in left where he'll have to continue to produce 35-40 doubles power with a high average; missing 50 games at second base doesn't help his cause to stay at that position, either.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2013 rank: 65
50Yordano Ventura, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 6/3/91B/T: R/RHT: 5-11WT: 180
W-L: 8-6ERA: 3.14IP: 134.2SO: 155BB: 53
Ventura still looks a lot like a reliever to me, a slight, 5-foot-10 right-hander with a huge fastball but a strong fly ball tendency that may make him too homer-prone to start in the majors.
He has improved his arsenal since this time last year, however, as the Royals worked hard to help him improve his changeup to ensure he has the three-pitch mix to start. Ventura will sit in the mid-to-upper 90s even as a starter, hitting 99 mph for me in one 2013 outing and repeatedly hitting 97 when I saw him start in 2012. His best pitch is a power curveball in the low 80s, short but very sharp thanks to its velocity, while the changeup, maybe a grade 40 before the year, was flashing average by year-end. He's also mixing in a slider/cutter in the 90-92 mph range, a pitch he's overthrowing a little but could certainly use as a fourth option, especially if the changeup ends up more of a fringy weapon against lefties.
Ultimately, his role is going to come down to whether he can keep the ball in the park enough; the fastball is hard but lacks life and he doesn't get plane on it, so he'll have to command it extremely well or pitch more with his secondaries to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. Otherwise, he's a potentially explosive reliever who'd probably sit 97-100 in one- or two-inning stints.
Top level: Majors (Kansas City) | 2013 rank: Just missed
Top 100 Prospects (#51-#100).
Top 100 index | No. 1-50 | No. 51-100
51Jackie Bradley Jr., OF
AGE: 23DOB: 4/19/90B/T: L/RHT: 5-10WT: 195
AVG: .275OBP: .374OPS: .842HR: 10SB: 7
While Bradley Jr.'s Jackpot Wad took over Fort Myers last spring, with a .419/.507/.613 line in 62 at-bats, the push for his Hall of Fame induction might have been a touch premature, as Bradley wasn't the same guy when the bell rang in April as he was when the games didn't count.
Major league pitchers were able to beat him in the zone with plus velocity and down and away with off-speed stuff, but Bradley managed to perform as well as expected after a demotion to Pawtucket. His ideal game is plus-plus defense in center with a high OBP at the plate and fringy power, maybe 10 to 15 homers a year; when he tries to over-rotate to hit the ball out to right, he expands his zone and makes less contact as a result.
Staying short to the ball and focusing on going line-to-line rather than trying to hit for power should make him an above-average regular, with OBPs in the .360 to .380 range. He could also save 10 or more runs a year on defense, enough to make Red Sox fans say "Jacoby who?"
Top level: Majors (Boston) | 2013 rank: 40
52Billy Hamilton, CF
AGE: 23DOB: 9/9/90B/T: B/RHT: 6-0WT: 160
AVG: .256OBP: .308OPS: .651HR: 6SB: 75
I was a little too optimistic about Hamilton's hit tool last year, and his 2013 season in Triple-A showed he's not quite ready to make an impact in the majors.
Hamilton's an 80-grade runner, perhaps the fastest man to step on a baseball field in a few decades, and his baserunning has improved to an unheard-of degree since he signed with the Reds, who've also taught him to switch-hit and switched him to center field, with the latter transition more successful so far than the former.
His issue is that pitchers have begun crowding him on the inner half because his wrists aren't strong enough to handle hard stuff in on his hands; you need a certain degree of hand/wrist strength to hit what major league pitchers are throwing, especially to that area of the zone. If he can find that missing strength, he has the other tools to be an impact player -- his speed is game-changing, and he's already an above-average defender in center.
I'm still concerned about Hamilton's ability to make this adjustment, as his frame is narrow, so his probability isn't great, while his upside still is.
Top level: Majors (Cincinnati) | 2013 rank: 30
53Garin Cecchini, 3B
AGE: 21DOB: *****/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 200
AVG: .297OBP: .388OPS: .865HR: 15SB: 7
Cecchini had a minor hamstring issue that slowed him down in 2013, but he showed he could really hit, projecting as a consistent .300-plus hitter whose future hit grade is a 65 or a 70. Now he just has to show he can stay at third base.
As a hitter, Cecchini has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, actually walking more than he struck out this year despite moving up a level midseason. He has some raw power but rarely shows it in games, preferring to use the middle of the field, although with no stride and a tendency to stay more linear and short to the ball, he'll have a hard time getting past 15 homers. His defense at third will never be pretty, but I believe he can stay there based on his instincts and game awareness, which will make up for a lack of first-step quickness.
His downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher averages and OBPs while providing comparable defense at third base.
Top level: Double-A (Portland) | 2013 rank: Unranked
54Rosell Herrera, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 10/16/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 180
AVG: .343OBP: .419OPS: .933HR: 16SB: 21
Herrera was my sleeper prospect for the Rockies going into 2012 but ended up demoted to short-season ball that summer and looked like he might never capitalize on his prodigious talent. He turned it around in 2013 in a return to Asheville, showing more maturity in all aspects of his game, with speed and power and even a surprisingly high walk rate.
His offense is a function of his immense physical gifts, as his lower half is going to generate noise complaints from neighbors, from a comically high leg kick and late landing to a soft front side when he overswings. He has very quick hands and likes to get his arms extended to drive the ball out to the gaps, with good hip rotation once his legs are firmly on the ground.
He might not stay at shortstop; he has the actions and quickness, but his frame is big and he could end up outgrowing the position and moving to third. He should have the power for the position, 20-plus homers a year, with solid OBPs once the Rockies can smooth him out at the plate.
Top level: Low Class A (Asheville) | 2013 rank: Unranked
55Colin Moran
AGE: 21DOB: 10/1/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 190
AVG: .299OBP: .354OPS: .796HR: 4SB: 1
Moran went fifth overall in the 2013 draft, the first time the Marlins selected a college position player with their first-round pick since taking Mark Kotsay in 1996. In doing so, the Marlins passed on better athletes and players with more upside to take a very strong college performer who did almost everything you'd want from an amateur player at the plate.
His swing isn't pretty the way you'd expect from a left-handed hitter with his pedigree; he takes a long stride forward in the box but keeps his weight back, also keeping his hands very deep, with good hip rotation as well. His hands come set in a different spot from swing to swing, and he can get locked into a "grooved" path that has him cutting up too much through the ball. What he does have, beyond performance, are very strong wrists and forearms that allow him to drive the ball even when he's a half-tick behind in his timing, as well as excellent plate discipline and a willingness to lay off pitches he can't drive.
At third base, he has the hands and arm but is rough getting his feet started, in part because he always starts on his heels, and in part because he's not a quick-twitch athlete.
He'll have many questions to answer in the Florida State League in 2014, from his defense to his ability to hit better pitching, but if he answers most of those, he's a potential No. 3 or No. 5 hitter and above-average regular at third base.
Top level: Low Class A (Greensboro) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
56Blake Swihart, C
AGE: 21DOB: 4/3/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 175
AVG: .298OBP: .366OPS: .794HR: 2SB: 7
Swihart, the No. 100 prospect on my list before the 2012 season, had a slow start that year but finished strong, and then carried it over with a breakout season in 2013 that saw him improve on offense and defense.
He is a tremendous athlete who played all over the field in high school, but last year the athleticism started to translate into very good defensive skills, with a plus arm that's quite accurate to go with better actions and receiving behind the plate. As a hitter, Swihart started to control the zone more effectively in 2013, with a 20 percent drop in his strikeout rate and a 33 percent hike in his walk rate even with the move up to high-A. He's a switch-hitter who lacked reps from the left side before entering pro ball but made substantial progress in his approach from that side last year, taking more than 80 percent of his plate appearances from that side.
Right now, Swihart is more of a line-drive hitter with doubles power but still projects to have average to above-average power when he peaks, 15 to 20 bombs a year, along with a strong OBP and plus defense behind the plate. He wasn't young for his level in either of the past two years, as he graduated high school at 19, but he's ready for Double-A now. With defensive wizard Christian Vazquez ahead of him, Swihart should get plenty of time in the high minors to continue to work on hitting left-handed and keeping his arm stroke short and simple behind the plate.
Top level: High Class A (Salem) | 2013 rank: Unranked
57Stephen Piscotty, OF
AGE: 23DOB: 1/14/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 210
AVG: .295OBP: .355OPS: .819HR: 15SB: 11
Piscotty was the Cardinals' supplemental first-round pick in 2012, their third overall selection after Michael Wacha and James Ramsey, an upside play on a player with ability who came from a program at Stanford that didn't make full use of his skills.
Freed from those constraints, Piscotty finished his first full year in pro ball in Double-A, striking out in less than 10 percent of his plate appearances on the year, then tearing up the Arizona Fall League in a hint of more production to come. Piscotty has a line-drive approach right now with hard contact to all fields, but he'll show plus pull power in batting practice, and you could see him becoming more comfortable dropping the bat head to drive the ball out to left as the season went on.
He's adequate in the outfield, better with reads and routes than with quickness or raw range, with a strong arm to stay in right. He's not a great athlete and is a below-average runner, but there's All-Star upside in the bat, a future No. 2 hitter profile who hits for average and power.
Top level: Double-A (Springfield) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
58Marcus Stroman, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 5/1/91B/T: R/RHT: 5-9WT: 185
W-L: 9-5ERA: 3.30IP: 111.2SO: 129BB: 27
As a relatively short, African-American pitcher, Stroman will get compared to Tom Gordon until the day he retires, but that might sell short the breadth of his arsenal and his chance to at least work as a starter in the majors for longer than Gordon did.
Stroman is an outstanding athlete who was drafted as a position player out of high school by the Nationals. He shunned Washington to attend Duke and made himself into a 2012 first-round pick on the mound, with a fastball that consistently sits 92-95 mph for 100 or so pitches. He'll now show three average-or-better secondary offerings in a hard slider/cutter at 86-88 that touched 91 for me in a short Arizona Fall League stint, a power slurve at 83-85 and a changeup with good tailing action in the 84-86 range. He has a very quick arm, and hitters don't pick up the ball well out of his hand, especially right-handed hitters who have to face his under-three-quarters slot coming right at them.
The knock on Stroman is his height. He's listed at 5-foot-9 and could be an inch under that, which makes it hard for him to get downhill plane on anything and will probably always leave him fly ball- and homer-prone. You can survive like that in the majors if you don't walk anyone, which Stroman doesn't, and if you miss a lot of bats, which so far he has. He's either a top-tier reliever, up in the Craig Kimbrel/Aroldis Chapman stratosphere, or a midrotation starter if he can keep the ball from leaving the park more than 25 to 30 times a year.
Top level: Double-A (New Hampshire) | 2013 rank: Unranked
59Erik Johnson, RHP
AGE: 24DOB: 12/30/89B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 235
W-L: 12-3ERA: 1.96IP: 142.0SO: 131BB: 40
Johnson built on a solid full-season debut in 2012 with an even better 2013 that saw him move from Double-A to Triple-A and reach the majors in September, racking up a full workload of 170 innings with just 51 walks across the three levels.
His stuff was better most of the year than what you might have seen from him in September, but when he isn't overthrowing his slider, he gets more depth to the pitch and misses a lot of bats with it. The slider is new to Johnson since his college days at California, replacing the mid-70s curveball that had a sharp break but was less effective against better hitters. He sits best at 92-93 mph, able to throw harder but with less life and command. His main developmental need is to improve his changeup, which looks good out of his hand but has not been effective enough against left-handed hitters since he reached Double-A.
He's built like a workhorse who can handle 220-plus innings in his peak years, with the fastball and swing-and-miss pitch to get him there if he can find a solution to get left-handed hitters out more consistently.
Top level: Majors (Chicago) | 2013 rank: Unranked
60Rafael Montero, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 10/17/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 170
W-L: 12-7ERA: 2.78IP: 155.1SO: 150BB: 35
Montero has a lower ceiling than the pitchers ahead of him on this list -- and even many of the pitchers behind him -- but he's extremely advanced right now and has better stuff than your standard "command right-hander," which is often a euphemism for a guy with a light fastball.
He will show plenty of 93s and 94s and commands the heck out of it to both sides of the plate, pairing it with an above-average slider and an above-average changeup, nothing knockout but all very effective because he can locate. His arm is quick, and while he's got a slight build for a starter, there isn't much effort involved in his delivery. My one concern on Montero is that he's a fly ball guy and could be homer-prone in the majors, although in his favor is the fact that in Las Vegas, a brutal park for a fly ball pitcher, he gave up just four homers in 88 innings.
He has the stuff and control (walking just six men in his final six starts of 2013) to contribute in the majors right now, and if the Mets need an extra starter in April or May, he should get the call before Noah Syndergaard.
Top level: Triple-A (Las Vegas) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
61Mookie Betts, 2B
AGE: 21DOB: 10/7/92B/T: R/RHT: 5-9WT: 156
AVG: .314OBP: .417OPS: .923HR: 15SB: 38
Betts was one of the year's biggest breakout prospects, a 2011 fifth-round pick who had an unremarkable pro debut in short-season Class A Lowell in 2012, but ripped through both full-season A-ball levels last year and established himself as one of the best middle infield prospects in the game.
He has some early hand movement before he loads his swing, but it's window-dressing and doesn't prevent him from being short and direct to the ball, with good hip rotation and some loft in his finish that could eventually produce 20-homer power. He's a plus runner and at least a 55-grade defender at second, with good range to his right and the athleticism to end up plus there; I know some scouts see him as a potential shortstop if the opportunity were to arise. His best attribute might be his feel for the strike zone; he's very balanced at the plate, even when he sees off-speed stuff, and makes quick adjustments within each at bat like a player with more pro experience would.
He could be an All-Star at second, maybe close to that at short, and despite his short stature there's still upside here because he's such a good athlete that he has untapped potential on both sides of the ball.
Top level: High Class A (Salem) | 2013 rank: Unranked
62Alex Meyer, RHP
AGE: 24DOB: 1/3/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-9WT: 220
W-L: 4-3ERA: 2.99IP: 78.1SO: 100BB: 32
When Meyer is on, he looks like a top-of-the-rotation guy, sitting in the upper 90s with sink and a slider sharp enough to sever someone's femoral artery on its way to the plate. He doesn't throw his changeup enough yet, and it's a grade-45 on bad days and a 50 (average) to 55 on good days, just something he needs to throw more and more to improve his feel for it, since his low-three-quarters arm slot gives left-handed hitters a nice long look at the ball out of his hand.
He is very lanky, and long-levered pitchers don't have a great history in MLB, as they often take more time to learn to repeat their deliveries and seem, anecdotally, to be injury-prone; only Randy Johnson and J.R. Richard have reached 20-plus WAR among pitchers 6-foot-8 or taller, and only Johnson has made 250 starts.
Meyer does have exceptional stuff, however, and there's not a lot of effort involved in him throwing 97 mph lawn darts, so there's cause to believe he can be a starter and potentially a No. 2 given enough time and patience.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2013 rank: 61
63Maikel Franco, 3B/1B
AGE: 21DOB: 8/26/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180
AVG: .320OBP: .356OPS: .926HR: 31SB: 1
Franco had a huge year at the plate in 2013, showing power and outstanding plate coverage, ripping through two levels just a year after he looked like he might need a late-spring demotion to short-season ball.
The 20-year-old punched out just 70 times in nearly 600 plate appearances, so while his recognition of off-speed stuff is poor, he has enough hand-eye coordination to foul off some of those pitches and keep himself alive to hunt for another fastball. His hands get very high and deep, and between that and his raw strength he has at least grade-65 power, although he doesn't always get to it between that deep load and inconsistent hip rotation.
Franco's main problem right now is position; he is a poor defender at third, a well below-average runner with thick lower legs whose first step was too slow for the position, although he has a 70 or so arm. The Phillies have indicated they intend to move him to first base, likely because they see Cody Asche as their third baseman of the future, limiting Franco's potential peak value.
He's an everyday player as a first baseman who should hit .290 or so with a low OBP but 25-30 homers a year, which might get him into the occasional All-Star game along the way.
Top level: Double-A (Reading) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
64Rougned Odor, 2B
AGE: 20DOB: 2/3/94B/T: L/RHT: 5-11WT: 170
AVG: .305OBP: .365OPS: .839HR: 11SB: 32
Odor doesn't have huge tools, but he has the one that counts, the hit tool, and tremendous feel for the game that has always had him playing above his raw abilities.
His swing isn't textbook, with a lot of extraneous movement in his front leg and in his hands before he loads, and he never really comes set, but still manages to whip the bat through the zone and generate lots of hard contact, mostly doubles power now but probably growing into 10-15 homers down the road. He's a very good defender at second base and an above-average runner with good instincts on the bases -- and pretty much everywhere else on the diamond. He's an aggressive, intense player, one who is now learning how to channel that into consistent production at the plate.
I'd like to see a quieter approach, but you can't change a kid who's had this much success as is and may never need to make that kind of adjustment; he's a potential All-Star at second, most likely a consistently above-average regular whom coaches love for his energy as well as his talent.
Top level: Double-A (Frisco) | 2013 rank: Unranked
65A.J. Cole, RHP
AGE: 24DOB: 1/5/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-9WT: 220
W-L: 10-5ERA: 3.60IP: 142.2SO: 151BB: 33
Cole was traded to Oakland in the Gio Gonzalez deal before 2012, flopped in high Class A for the Athletics, then went back to Washington in the three-team John Jaso/Michael Morse deal, after which he seemed to right the ship somewhat, even working his way up to Double-A by year-end.
His best pitch is still his fastball, 93-97 mph without a lot of effort, a little true but also one that gets in on right-handed hitters quickly. His curveball is more of a power slurve, 77-84 mph and varying in shape as he tries to maintain a consistent arm slot for the pitch; when he stays up toward three-quarters, it has angle and depth, and when he finishes it out front, it's a real weapon for him in pitchers' counts.
He began using his changeup more in Harrisburg and it was approaching average by the end of August, although he still showed a large platoon split in Double-A. His control is well ahead of his command, but the latter will come as he gets more consistency with his arm slot and release point.
Cole's still on the thin side with room to add some muscle, more for stamina than for added velocity, but the key for him is body control and repeating that delivery. With the Nats having one of baseball's best rotations, they can take their time to get Cole right, and develop him into a good midrotation starter.
Top level: Double-A (Harrisburg) | 2013 rank: 89
66Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 12/1/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 6-2ERA: 2.01IP: 67.0SO: 51BB: 12
Guerrieri was off to an excellent start in low Class A Bowling Green, running his career line to a 1.59 ERA in 119 innings with just 17 walks and 96 punchouts before his elbow snapped, requiring Tommy John surgery that will put him out of action until at least late summer.
He was a power arm out of the 2011 draft, but showed right away he had feel for pitching beyond anyone's evaluations of him in high school, locating down in the zone and throwing strikes with his fastball and breaking ball. Guerrieri will run it up to 97 mph but can find success a grade below that because he can sink it and work side to side, and the Rays have made him work more on the changeup since his curveball was already a plus pitch. He tested positive for marijuana while injured, leading to a 50-game suspension that will be covered by his time on the disabled list; it has little bearing on his on-field projection, but tells us something about a player's desire to reach the majors.
If Guerrieri can keep himself clean and get back on the field by August, he could be just a couple of years from a rotation spot, with No. 2 starter upside once he develops more feel for his change.
Top level: Low Class A (Bowling Green) | 2013 rank: 47
67C.J. Edwards, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 9/3/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 155
W-L: 8-2ERA: 1.86IP: 116.1SO: 155BB: 41
The Cubs acquired Edwards in the Matt Garza trade last July after which we quickly saw the return of his electric stuff and athletic, if slight, build.
Edwards will sit 91-96 mph with little effort, getting natural cutting action on the pitch as well as some downhill plane, and he has a big, old-school curveball that's a 55 or 60 on the 20-80 scale, and both pitches have missed bats in the minors. His changeup has made progress and was solid-average by year-end, giving him a three-pitch mix along with average control, similar in total package to Chris Archer at a similar stage of development.
Where Archer had size to go with his athleticism, Edwards is a rake, listed at 6-foot-2, 155 pounds, and while he's not that emaciated, he's still on the skinny side for a potential 200-inning starter. He's been healthy so far, and he has No. 2 starter upside if he can handle the workload associated with making 33 starts a year in the majors, a tremendous get for the Cubs for two months of Matt Garza's time.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2013 rank: Unranked
68Gary Sanchez, C
AGE: 21DOB: 12/2/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 220
AVG: .253OBP: .324OPS: .736HR: 15SB: 3
Sanchez shows flashes of star potential but has yet to put any of it together for an extended stretch of time -- although in his defense, he played all of 2013 at age 20 and has already reached Double-A, where he'll probably spend most or all of this season.
He has huge upside as a hitter, with plus-plus raw power and very hard contact, even with a slightly noisy approach, thanks to huge hip rotation and great strength in his wrists and forearms. His recognition of secondary stuff needs work, but his hand-eye coordination is so good that he's always had good contact rates, even striking out less often in the Florida State League than fellow young'uns Miguel Sano, Javier Baez and Byron Buxton.
Sanchez is often compared, unfairly, to former Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, but Sanchez has always been a better catcher across the board -- catching, throwing, agility -- and just needed to show the commitment and a better work ethic, which he did in 2013. He has a cannon, at least a 70-grade arm, and has improved his release over the past few years, but the finer points of catching like game-calling are still a ways off, and he may never be a good framer.
Even a grade-45 defender back there with Sanchez's potential offensive upside will be an MVP candidate, and if he continues to work at receiving and on his plate discipline he'll be ready to take over and make a real impact for the Yankees by 2016.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2013 rank: 18
69Kyle Crick, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 11/30/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 220
W-L: 3-1ERA: 1.57IP: 68.2SO: 95BB: 39
Crick has two huge pitches in his fastball and slider, and hitters have a hard time connecting with either pitch, as his 34 percent strikeout rate in high Class A attests (43 percent in the Arizona Fall League).
The fastball is 92-97 and the mid-80s slider has average tilt but plays up because it's hard and hitters pick up the break late. He's got the size to be a starter as well, country strong and already looking like a big leaguer physically. There's a lot of refining to do from here, however, starting with his well below-average command, thanks to a high-effort delivery that he still hasn't gotten under control. His changeup remains a below-average pitch, hard and straight and easy to pick up, leading to big platoon splits. Crick missed time in the regular season with an oblique strain, throwing just 83 innings on the season including the AFL, so he may spend 2014 facing an innings cap.
Double-A will be a key test for Crick, who will have to command his fastball better and find a way to get lefties out now that he'll be facing a higher caliber of hitter. I know many scouts who see him as a potential No. 2 starter, but his probability right now is low and he may be more of a power reliever instead.
Top level: High Class A (San Jose) | 2013 rank: 76
70Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 10/7/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 200
W-L: 6-3ERA: 3.06IP: 129.1SO: 124BB: 66
Foltynewicz, which is Polish for "throws gas," had a strong showing in his second season at low Class A in 2012, and came into last season needing to show that his success there had nothing to do with his experience level. It's fair to say now that that's the case, as Foltynewicz was quickly promoted out of high Class A and pitched fairly well as a 21-year-old in Double-A, hitting 100 mph in every start of the year but his final one (when he topped out at 99, he must have been exhausted) and showing improvement in both secondary pitches.
His curveball and changeup are both developing, the curve (present grade of 55, future 60) more than the change (45/50), although with his impressive arm speed he could probably pick up a slider like it was a $20 bill lying on the pavement. For Foltynewicz, it's now about refinement -- improving his fastball command, working more to the bottom of the zone, and getting consistency with the two off-speed weapons.
It's an ace's fastball, but I think the overall package is more of a league-average to above-average starter, 200-plus innings of better performance than the Astros have seen from a starter in quite some time.
Top level: Double-A (Corpus Christi) | 2013 rank: Unranked
71Arismendy Alcantara, 2B
AGE: 22DOB: 10/29/91B/T: B/RHT: 5-10WT: 160
AVG: .271OBP: .352OPS: .804HR: 15SB: 31
Alcantara was a bit of a surprise pick for the 2013 Futures Game, given how many higher-profile prospects the Cubs have, but homered from the left side and impressed scouts with his range of tools; he had a cold spell right after the game, but bounced back in August for a solid seasonal line that still doesn't give you a great idea of his upside as a potential All-Star at second base.
He can run and is a legitimate switch-hitter with sneaky power thanks to very strong wrists. He's a versatile athlete who could back up shortstop but probably shouldn't play it every day; he could also likely handle center or third base if needed, and might be a candidate for a Tony Phillips-type super-utility role.
He needs to tighten up his control of the strike zone and a full year of playing second base would help him substantially. Of note: He bears a striking resemblance to Chris Paul.
Top level: Double-A (Tennessee) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
72Chris Owings, SS
AGE: 22DOB: 8/12/91B/T: R/RHT: 5-10WT: 180
AVG: .330OBP: .359OPS: .841HR: 12SB: 20
Owings returns to the rankings after an absence of two years; he ranked 84th in 2011 but comical walk rates and a lack of development in his approach at the plate seemed to slow his progress.
His 2013 line was boosted by playing in hitter-friendly Triple-A Reno, but Owings' bat speed is undeniable and his swing is simple and direct. I don't see loft in the swing for home-run power, but he's an above-average runner and I think he'll hit plenty of line-drives to the gaps for 30-40 doubles a year. At shortstop, he has great instincts, quick feet, and a plus arm, everything required to be at least a 60-grade defender there -- very much what Didi Gregorius was supposed to be, but with better hit and run tools.
Owings was 17 years old when he signed, so he had 2,000 pro plate appearances before he turned 22 and is more than ready to take over as the everyday shortstop in Arizona now, where he might walk once a week but will contribute in plenty of other ways to keep the job.
Top level: Majors (Arizona) | 2013 rank: Unranked
73Nick Kingham, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/8/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 220
W-L: 9-6ERA: 2.89IP: 143.1SO: 144BB: 44
Kingham was the Pirates' fourth-round pick in 2010 out of Las Vegas powerhouse Sierra Vista High School, which has also recently produced Astros first baseman Chris Carter and Tampa Bay's 2011 first-round pick Jake Hager.
Kingham looks like the best prospect the school has churned out so far, a command right-hander with three solid to above-average pitches and a fluid delivery that's easy for him to repeat. He'll sit in the low 90s with an above-average curveball, and his changeup has gradually improved over the past two seasons to the point at which it's consistently average or better -- at times the superior weapon to the breaking ball. Kingham comes from a slot just below three-quarters but gets on top of the ball well; his stride is moderate, but there's so little effort to his arm swing it's hard to believe he can reach the 93-94 range.
I wish he had a little more life or plane on the fastball, as he's a moderate fly ball pitcher, but all of the other elements are in place for a league-average, 200-inning starter once he gets a few reps in the majors.
Top level: Double-A (Altoona) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
74Alen Hanson, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 10/22/92B/T: B/RHT: 5-11WT: 170
AVG: .274OBP: .329OPS: .755HR: 8SB: 30
The 2013 season was a mixed bag for Hanson, who came into the season needing to work on his defense at shortstop. He did so, but perhaps to the detriment of his offensive performance.
At the plate, Hanson has a compact left-handed swing that makes a lot of contact with below-average power, while his right-handed swing has more loft but has produced less contact as he's moved up the minor league ladder. He's patient enough to work deep counts but isn't at the point at which he can convert that into either a high OBP or hard contact in hitter's counts; in the Arizona Fall League, in which he was clearly tired, he was chasing fastballs up and sliders down and away, looking completely overmatched as a result.
His defense improved substantially over the course of 2013; he was always athletic enough for the position but worked on his footwork and his mental approach at short, reducing the mistakes that bedeviled him in 2012.
His ceiling is an average defender at short who hits .300 with 50-60 walks per season and doubles power, which would be an above-average or better regular, but to get there, he'll have to shorten up from the right side and continue to improve his ball-strike recognition.
Top level: Double-A (Altoona) | 2013 rank: 34
75Zach Lee, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 9/13/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 10-10ERA: 3.22IP: 142.2SO: 131BB: 35
I like Lee a little more than this ranking indicates, in part because I believe in betting on superior athletes to improve, even when a comparable player of less athletic ability would have plateaued.
If Lee never gets better, he's still a future No. 3 starter with a solid, average fastball at 90-94 mph which he can locate and an average-to-tick-above curveball that could be a little sharper. He'll also show a changeup with good action and a slider that, depending on the day, can look better than the curveball, although the consensus is that the latter will be his primary breaking ball.
Lee's an excellent athlete -- formerly committed to play quarterback at LSU -- with an easy, fluid delivery and superlative body control. I still think there's another gear in there when he gets to age 24 or so, maybe another grade of fastball, maybe a little quicker arm that makes the curveball sharper. He has a high floor thanks to his command and feel, but there is plenty of reason to hope for a little more.
Top level: Double-A (Chattanooga) | 2013 rank: 67
76Kohl Stewart, RHP
AGE 19DOB: 10/7/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 0-0ERA: 1.35IP: 20SO: 24BB: 4
Stewart, a two-sport star who turned down a scholarship to play quarterback at Texas A&M to try his luck at baseball instead, was the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft and the first high school player taken.
He is a great athlete with exceptional arm strength but has a long way to go to develop into a frontline starter because his delivery is so crude. He's up to 97 mph without a lot of effort, sitting at 92-94 with good downhill plane and a little arm-side run. His slider is his best pitch right now: 85-88 with good, late tilt, but his command of the pitch is below average, not where his command of his power 79-82 mph curveball is. He does throw a changeup, making him an unusual prep pitcher with the full four-pitch mix, and has good arm speed at 83-85 with no action.
Stewart's delivery doesn't reflect his athleticism, as his hips are stiff and he gets his pitching arm turned over late, drifting off the rubber rather than striding with more force. All of those factors mean he has ace stuff, with a chance for at least two plus-plus pitches and four that are average or better but lacks the command or control right now to put them to good use.
The Twins will likely spend a lot of time with Stewart this spring, working on making him into a pitcher rather than a thrower, so he might be a good five years away from the majors, though he is the system's most exciting pitching prospect.
Top level: Rookie (Elizabethton) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
77Jesse Biddle, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 10/22/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 225
W-L: 5-14ERA: 3.64IP: 138.1SO: 154BB: 82
Biddle is the Phillies' top pitching prospect, a local product who was outstanding early in the season before he came down with whooping cough.
When healthy, Biddle will sit at 90-92 mph but has 93-94 potential when he needs it. He complements the fastball with a big, slow curveball that lefties do not pick up at all, as well as solid-average changeup that he's continuing to improve his feel for. His fastball command came and went this season, with the illness -- which didn't prevent him from making every start until his last scheduled one of the season -- one factor behind that, but in his favor was an increased ability to get swings and misses on the fastball, something he'll need as neither the curve nor the change is a bona fide out pitch.
He's a solid No. 3 starter -- a little above league average -- with the potential for more if he doesn't contract diphtheria this summer.
Top level: Double-A (Reading) | 2013 rank: 95
78Jonathan Singleton, 1B
AGE: 22DOB: 9/18/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 235
AVG: .230OBP: .351OPS: .753HR: 11SB: 1
Singleton missed the first 50 games of 2013 after testing positive for marijuana, a drug for which players on the 40-man roster aren't tested, meaning this is no longer an issue for Singleton going forward. After his return, however, he wasn't in great shape and never got going at the plate until going to Puerto Rico for winter ball. He's probably in line to return to Triple-A to start 2014.
Everything the industry liked about Singleton in 2012 is still there -- a beautiful left-handed swing with extension through contact for power and great balance from start to finish. He's ready to face right-handed major league pitching right now, but his recognition against lefties has long been a weakness, with 48 punchouts in 120 plate appearances against them in 2013.
The floor here is a platoon regular who destroys right-handers but needs a caddie against southpaws; he has just 600 plate appearances against lefties in his pro career, though, and might just need more reps to become a complete player who is capable of hitting .270-280 with 25-plus homers and a strong OBP.
Top level: Triple-A (Oklahoma City) | 2013 rank: 32
79Hak-Ju Lee, SS
AGE: 23DOB: 11/4/90B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 170
AVG: .422OBP: .536OPS: 1.136HR: 1SB: 6
I saw Lee play on April 18 and was pleased to see a much better setup and swing from him at the plate than he'd showed in the Arizona Fall League in 2012. In his next game, however, he suffered a tramautic knee injury that knocked him out for the season and leaves his future potential up in the air.
So much of Lee's game revolves around his speed that if the injury reduces his ability to run or limits his lateral quickness at shortstop, he might lose any chance to be an impact player. That would be a shame because, prior to the injury, he looked like a star at shortstop, a potential plus defender and runner who has a very good approach at the plate with a line-drive swing, lacking only power among the five tools.
He's ranked in a holding pattern here until we see how much of his quickness remains, and for his sake and baseball's in general -- another Korean star player in MLB would only help grow the game globally -- I hope his tools are all intact.
Top level: Triple-A (Durham) | 2013 rank: 78
80Delino DeShields, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 8/16/92B/T: R/RHT: 5-9WT: 205
AVG: .317OBP: .405OPS: .873HR: 5SB: 51
DeShields didn't steal 100 bags again in 2013 but did have a solid season as a 20-year-old in hitter-friendly Lancaster, although, at this point, it's looking more like he'll end up in the outfield, most likely in left.
He can hit, with a short swing and strength to drive the ball to the gaps and maybe peaking as a 10-12 homer guy. An 80-grade runner in high school, he's more of a 65 runner now when underway, which is still plenty fast to rack up high stolen-base totals in the majors. His defense at second and in center remains below average, and his arm might limit him to left field down the road, where the Astros would hope he'd be a modern-day Tim Raines: getting on base with good defense and baserunning value.
His main issue, however, is a lack of effort -- his on-field effort level is often embarrassing and has many scouts I've talked to dismissing him as a top prospect entirely. I see a 21-year-old with a lot of physical ability who needs to grow up to reach his ceiling, but he's far too young to assume he'll never be able to do it.
Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2013 rank: 83
81Miguel Almonte, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 4/4/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
W-L: 6-9ERA: 3.10IP: 130.2SO: 132BB: 36
Almonte was one of several sleepers I mentioned in the still-exciting Royals system last season and should join fellow top-100 prospect Raul Mondesi in high Class A Wilmington this April on a club that might have half of the Royals' top 10 prospects on its Opening Day roster.
Almonte's potential is tremendous, with the upside of a No. 1 or 2 starter if everything clicks for him. He'll show an above-average fastball every time out now, but he'll flash a 70-grade fastball in some starts, hitting 95-96 mph on those nights, and his changeup is plus right now -- so good, in fact, that he might use it too often when he needs to work on his breaking ball and fastball command. He likes to throw two variations on the curve -- one a spike that he can't command (almost nobody can) -- and it's going to be time for him to pick one and focus on developing it to the exclusion of the other. Almonte's arm is very quick but he's still learning how to generate that speed from his lower half instead of just relying on his arm quickness.
That's about three major areas for him to improve on to reach that ceiling, which sounds like a lot until you see his birth date and consider that he started 2012 still in the Dominican Republic. He's a player Royals fans can dream on.
Top level: Low Class A (Lexington) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
82Vincent Velasquez, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 6/7/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 203
W-L: 4-3ERA: 2.99IP: 78.1SO: 100BB: 32
My sleeper prospect for Houston going into 2012 came back late in that season from 2010 Tommy John surgery but was back at full strength last season and quietly had an outstanding season for a kid making his full-season debut, even if it was a year later than expected.
Velasquez has filled out nicely since high school and now sits at 93-94 mph with his fastball -- touching 96. He's always had a good changeup, which now shows plus at times, with average command of both pitches and above-average control overall. Velasquez's biggest issue now is the breaking ball, which ranges from well below average to above average within the same game -- sometimes within the same inning -- because he hasn't found consistent feel for his release of that pitch -- a little surprising given his three-quarters arm slot and ability to stay on top of the ball.
He needs more reps -- he is 21 and has fewer than 200 innings of pro experience across three-plus seasons -- to see if the curve can become an average or better pitch; if it does, he's at least a mid-rotation guy, and, if not, I think he has the control and changeup to still be a No. 4 starter.
Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2013 rank: Unranked
83Brian Goodwin, CF
AGE: 23DOB: 11/2/90B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 195
AVG: .252OBP: .355OPS: .762HR: 10SB: 19
Goodwin skipped high Class A in the summer of 2012, largely because the field conditions at Potomac are so poor that the Nats don't like sending outfield prospects there. Instead, he went right to Double-A Harrisburg, where he showed flashes of all five tools but never put everything together like I'd hoped, and returned there for all of 2013.
His season was uneven -- not bad -- as he did a lot of smaller things well, like working the count more effectively and improving his reads on defense. Goodwin is a plus-plus runner with quick wrists and generates plenty of bat speed for doubles and triples power with enough rotational action for maybe 10-15 homers per season. His arm would play in right or center, and with his speed, I think he's a lock to stay in center. His approach against right-handers is good, and his recognition problems with breaking stuff show up mostly against lefties, resulting in a growing platoon split.
When he's "on," there's an explosive aspect to his game that makes me think there's more production coming down the road and that he'll put everything together and end up a 70-grade defender who hits .280 with 70-80 walks per season and a slew of extra-base hits. He's just progressing in fits and starts and might be a guy who needs an extra 500 at-bats before the tools fully translate into results.
Top level: Double-A (Harrisburg) | 2013 rank: 44
84Jake Marisnick, CF
AGE: 23DOB: 3/30/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 225
AVG: .289OBP: .350OPS: .840HR: 12SB: 11
Marisnick didn't belong in the majors in 2013; it seems like the Marlins might not have realized that he and Christian Yelich could play on separate teams, so when they promoted Yelich in July, they brought Marisnick up at the same time, but Marisnick hit just .183/.231/.248 in 118 plate appearances.
He's a very good athlete who already plays an excellent center field and whose power-speed combination might make him a better fantasy hitter than real-baseball hitter. Marisnick has a lot of swing and miss in his approach -- from poor pitch recognition to timing problems -- but when he gets his arms extended, he has above-average-to-plus power out to left and left-center and has the speed to turn some singles into doubles.
Rushing him a half-season too early won't help him work on his ability to pick up breaking stuff; he could probably use three months in Triple-A, if not more. Even if the Marlins feel like his defense will help them now, they might be leaving some potential untapped by forcing him to sink or swim against major league arms.
Top level: Double-A (Harrisburg) | 2013 rank: 44
85Tyler Austin, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 9/6/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 220
AVG: .265OBP: .351OPS: .730HR: 6SB: 4
Austin's all about the bat -- he can play right field but is nothing special there, and two seasons removed from any time at third base means he has no real chance to return to the dirt.
Unfortunately, he suffered a bone bruise in his wrist in late April, which he tried to play through it into July, that wrecked his first season in Double-A. He returned briefly in August and went to the Arizona Fall League but left there after two weeks with further discomfort in the joint. When healthy, Austin has a very sound swing that is geared both toward contact and power and is short to contact with good extension. He rotates his hips well to generate power, all with enough patience to keep his OBP in the .350 range. The wrist injury left his bat speed slower -- you see he was late on fastballs he'd have squared up a season before -- and it sapped most of his power as well.
He'll be only about average in right field -- making the necessary plays but not much more -- so he needs to hit and hit for power to be a regular. Like Hak-Ju Lee, he's still on this list as I wait to see if he's back to full strength in 2014, because I do believe in his potential with the bat.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2013 rank: 52
86Jonathan Schoop, SS
AGE: 22DOB: 10/16/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 210
AVG: .278OBP: .330OPS: .790HR: 14SB: 1
Schoop's season was all but ruined by a stress fracture in his lower back, so while he appeared for six different clubs in 2013 (including the Dutch World Baseball Classic team and Surprise in the Arizona Fall League), he was never quite himself anywhere he played.
He is a monster physically, and when he's healthy, he has plus to plus-plus power already, with 25-30 homer potential in a few years. He had some trouble with his swing this season after the back issue cropped up but looked better in the AFL -- more balanced throughout his swing and looser than he had been all season. But his timing was off and he didn't perform any better in Arizona than he had in Triple-A.
Schoop has played shortstop, but he's too big for the position, and after the back injury, Baltimore moved him to second base full time. I think he's a better fit at third; he has a 55- or 60-grade arm, and his hands are more than good enough for the infield, and the power will play at third base. Schoop needed the reset button of an offseason, and if he's healthy to start 2014, he could be in Baltimore by midseason at the keystone.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2013 rank: 50
87Mason Williams, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 8/21/91B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 180
AVG: .245OBP: .304OPS: .641HR: 4SB: 15
Williams was one of several top Yankee prospects to get hurt and have a disappointing 2013 season; the biggest knock of all on Williams was that he was out of shape to start the season and seemed to be playing and moving without energy. He did look more like his old self in the Arizona Fall League, having dropped some weight and running sub-4.2 seconds down the line again while playing better in center field.
He is a potential Gold Glove defender in center, a future 70 on the 20-80 scale with good reads off the bat and bursting speed to chase down balls in the gaps. He's not a hacker at the plate, but he's not as selective as he should be; he can make contact so easily that he often chases pitches he should let go by and needs to be willing to work the count more to his advantage. Williams also had some mechanical issues at the plate in 2013, finishing too closed after stridin and sometimes getting his front hip out too early, all of which need to be reined in to maximize his production.
His ultimate outcome should be a high-average, doubles-power guy who might hit 15 homers in his best season, but even .290-plus with 50-60 walks and 10 homers with great defense is an above-average regular.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2013 rank: 35
88Matt Davidson, 3B
AGE: 23DOB: 3/26/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 225
AVG: .280OBP: .350OPS: .831HR: 17SB: 1
Davidson has been on this list for four straight years and appears ready to take over as the White Sox's regular third baseman after they acquired him from Arizona in December.
He has a sweet right-handed swing: very simple and repeatable, with moderate loft in his finish. He is more of a 35-doubles candidate than a plus-power guy; he'll likely hit 15-20 homers per season if he doesn't get too pull-conscious, which, given his swing and approach would hurt him too much in the batting average and contact departments. He's an adequate third baseman, having worked substantially on his reads and getting his feet moving more quickly; you'd like to see him be more aggressive on balls in front of him -- especially ones he should play with one hand -- but he'll make the plays he has to make to be a solid defender.
He'll play at 23 years old in 2014 and still has a little development ahead of him -- mostly in pitch recognition -- but he should be an above-average regular at third base given a season or two there to continue to progress.
Top level: Majors (Arizona) | 2013 rank: 75
89Matt Barnes, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 6/17/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
W-L: 6-10ERA: 4.13IP: 113.1SO: 142BB: 48
Barnes had a very strong season in Double-A, missing a ton of bats and continuing to develop his curveball and changeup. He's still not at the point at which he's likely to have all three offerings working on the same day.
He shows a low-90s fastball and can add a little more when needed; hitters don't see the ball well out of his hand at all, so he gets a ton of swings and misses on his fastball, even within the zone. His curveball was much better in the second half of the season, a downer breaking ball that he didn't command early but was more effective with later in the season, while his changeup was probably better in the spring and might be a little too hard to be more than an average pitch. He continues to command his fastball better than his off-speed stuff and will probably spend most of 2014 in Triple-A working on the latter.
I see at least a mid-rotation starter here, with a chance to play above that if the secondary pitches come along. Guys who miss bats with fastball strikes like this are pretty uncommon, so I could be easily selling him short.
Top level: Triple-A (Pawtucket) | 2013 rank: 79
90Christian Bethancourt, C
AGE: 21DOB: 9/2/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 215
AVG: .277OBP: .305OPS: .741HR: 12SB: 11
Bethancourt repeated Double-A after an inexcusably bad season at the plate there in 2012 but seemed to make enough minor adjustments at the plate to at least get to his power more often and project as an everyday catcher in the majors.
His calling card is his defense -- perhaps the best in the minors right now -- which is good enough to challenge Yadier Molina's for the best in MLB when the time comes. He's a plus-plus receiver with an 80-grade arm that is strong, quick and accurate. At the plate, Bethancourt has plus power, but he's a relentless hacker, with just 78 walks in 1,824 career plate appearances (4.2 percent, if you didn't want to bust out Excel for that), and that lack of patience has held back his ability to get pitches he can drive.
If he gets a full season in the majors in 2015, he'll probably post an OBP of less than .300 but with 10-15 homers and two wins worth of defensive value. And if he ever figures out how to take a couple of pitches, there's more power in there -- enough to make him a fringe All-Star.
Top level: Double-A (Mississippi) | 2013 rank: Unranked
91Kolten Wong, 2B
AGE: 23DOB: 10/10/90B/T: L/RHT: 5-9WT: 185
AVG: .303OBP: .369OPS: .835HR: 10SB: 20
Wong has one above-average tool: his ability to hit. He combines that with very good instincts, so, despite his lack of any plus tools, the Cardinals are comfortable penciling him in as their everyday second baseman for 2014.
He has a short swing with above-average bat speed, letting the ball travel well and going for contact rather than power. His walk rates in pro ball haven't been great, but he doesn't strike out much and, in general, has been successful at putting the ball in play rather than just working the count for walks. His defense is average at second base; his arm is just a tick below average and his footwork is OK, but the Cardinals have done a great job at developing defenders and have improved Wong's reads and lateral range to the point at which he's more than fringy at the position. He's pretty much an average runner but massively improved his baserunning acumen last season.
I see an average regular here -- maybe a tick above -- with a little bit of upside if he develops a better on-base ability after some time in the majors.
Top level: Majors (St. Louis) | 2013 rank: 96
92Brandon Nimmo, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 3/27/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 185
AVG: .273OBP: .397OPS: .756HR: 2SB: 10
Nimmo was the Mets' first-round pick in 2011 out of a high school in Wyoming that didn't have a baseball team, which left him with limited experience, mostly Americal Legion ball and some showcases the summer before his senior year. Despite having several above-average tools, he didn't have a lot of reps against decent pitching and moved slowly through short-season ball before reaching the hitter's graveyard of Savannah this season.
He raked away from Savannah (.302/.421/.405) and showed great patience at the plate, a hugely positive marker for a player as inexperienced as he is. Nimmo has great rotation in his swing but can be a little long to the ball because he loads his hands high, behind his left shoulder. He's a fringe-average defender in center -- better with reads than with range -- but he'll be plus in either corner. The main areas for improvement for Nimmo are against left-handed pitchers -- against whom he was better this season but still not where he'll need to be to play every day -- and staying healthy, as he had a nagging wrist injury last summer on top of knee surgery in high school.
High-OBP guys with other tools, especially defensive ability, are pretty uncommon, and a healthy Nimmo should be an average to above-average regular by the time he's 24.
Top level: Low Class A (Savannah) | 2013 rank: Just missed
93Justin Nicolino, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/22/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 8-4ERA: 3.11IP: 142.0SO: 95BB: 30
Nicolino is the same guy he was a season ago, but the failure to miss bats this season was a disappointment given his combination of command and stuff.
He has a quiet delivery, extremely easy to repeat, which allows him to throw all three of his pitches for strikes with above-average command that will end up plus. His fastball is just average, but his changeup is already plus, if not better, and he'll show a 55-grade curveball that is a little short but plays up because he can locate it well. He's also played around with a slider, which isn't a viable weapon for him yet but could give him another way to keep hitters off balance.
Nicolino keeps his walk rates low and posts good (not huge) groundball rates, so his floor is high, but his ceiling isn't more than a slightly above-average starter until he shows he can strike more hitters out.
Top level: Double-A (Jacksonville) | 2013 rank: 62
94Hunter Renfroe, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 1/28/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 200
AVG: .271OBP: .308OPS: .767HR: 6SB: 2
Renfroe had two nondescript seasons at Mississippi State before breaking out in the spring of 2013, which helped push him to the top half of the first round of the draft once he had some results to go with his plus power and speed tools.
He is broad-shouldered with a solid build and has the plus-plus power you'd expect from a guy that size. His swing is very rotational, with a good stride into the ball and excellent follow-through to generate all of that power. He lifts his back foot off the ground at contact, which isn't ideal since it means he's hitting entirely off his front foot, something a few good big league hitters have done but that most don't.
He's a plus runner with a strong arm and should be an excellent defender in right, saving up to 10 runs per season between his glove and his arm. The question on Renfroe, and it's a significant one, is his pitch recognition and the resulting trouble he has making contact; he doesn't pick up spin that well, and pitchers can change speeds on him to get him off balance, all of which (plus fatigue) seemed to catch up to him in his very brief time in low Class A last season.
Right now, he projects as a low-average, power-speed guy, a No. 5- or 6-hole hitter who adds a lot of value on defense and on the bases -- but he'll have to improve his contact rates to get there.
Top level: Low Class A (Ft. Wayne) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
95Nick Ciuffo, C
AGE: 19DOB: 3/7/95B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 205
AVG: .258OBP: .296OPS: .604HR: 0SB: 0
The best receiving catcher in the 2013 draft has some work to do in other aspects of his game but offers a high floor thanks to his good hands and above-average raw power.
As a hitter, Ciuffo has a simple left-handed swing, with very little stride and a consistent path. He rotates his hips well and has the hand strength to pull the ball, even when he rolls over his front foot through contact; that power makes him pull-conscious at times, something he'll have to avoid to keep his contact rate and batting average up.
Behind the plate, Ciuffo should be an excellent framer thanks to strong, yet soft, hands, and he's already improved his footwork since signing. He has plus arm strength but a long throwing stroke -- like he's winding up to pitch -- which he'll need to cut down to help him control the running game. I'm less concerned with his fielding than with his hit tool, as he has more work to do to use the whole field so he can keep his average up.
He's a potential above-average regular, a plus defender across the board who might hit .240-250 with 18-20 homers per season in a position at which a pulse is enough to put you above replacement level.
Top level: Rookie (Gulf Coast League) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
96Chris Anderson, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/29/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
W-L: 3-0ERA: 1.96IP: 46.0SO: 50BB: 24
The Dodgers' first-round pick in 2013 had an up-and-down spring at Jacksonville University -- blowing everyone away early in the spring with a plus slider and a fastball up to 95 mph -- but the coaching staff worked him hard and he couldn't maintain it through the end of the college season.
His velocity was better this summer after a brief layoff and some lighter use in pro ball, with his fastball touching 98 mph and his changeup solid-average or a tick below.
Anderson is physically imposing -- built for big workloads -- with a strong lower half and a good, long stride to the plate. He doesn't have the command or poise of system-mate Zach Lee but has a higher ceiling as a potential No. 2 starter if he can locate better and maintains his composure when something goes wrong behind him.
Top level: Low Class A (Great Lakes) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
97Josh Bell, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 8/14/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 213
AVG: .279OBP: .353OPS: .806HR: 13SB: 1
Bell was on my 2012 list but suffered a season-ending knee injury that April and missed key development time, especially given how much work he had to do at the plate.
He is a switch-hitter with well-above-average power, even to the opposite field. He is far more advanced from the left side of the plate than the right side, from which his swing gets longer and his swing path is much less consistent. His ball-strike recognition was solid in high school and remains a strength; his walk rate was only fair in West Virginia last season, but part of that is the result of his strong plate coverage, not a lack of patience. His ability to drive pitches on the outer half out to left field when batting left-handed is unusual, especially for his age and for a hitter who doesn't strike out at an alarming rate.
The Pirates have kept Bell in right field, but he's far more likely to end up in left because he's a below-average runner with a below-average arm. If the bat comes along now that the lost season is behind him, though, he'll still profile as an average to above-average regular in left, getting on base at a .350-plus clip with 20-25 homers per season.
Top level: Low Class A (West Virginia) | 2013 rank: Unranked
98Tim Anderson, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 6/23/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180
AVG: .277OBP: .348OPS: .711HR: 1SB: 24
Praise be the White Sox for finally being aggressive with their top draft picks; while it didn't work out for Courtney Hawkins in 2013, a raw high school kid who should have gone to low Class A rather than high A, pushing the 20-year-old Anderson to low A got him needed at-bats against better pitching.
Anderson held his own there, striking out a little more than you'd like but showing off his gap power and speed without ever looking overmatched. He has a very quick but mostly flat swing, more from his hands than his hips or legs, so he can slap the ball all over but isn't well set up to drive it in any direction. He drifts a little on to his front foot, which, combined with the lack of hip rotation, makes it hard to get maximum force into any contact he makes. He's a plus runner, and questions about his defense while in junior college were less evident in pro ball as the White Sox helped clean up his arm stroke, and his footwork has already improved.
He's a great athlete overall and does have the strength to surprise us down the road with 15-homer pop, but it's more likely he settles in as a slap-hitter/speed guy who plays above-average defense at short.
Top level: Low Class A (Kannapolis) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
99Jose Peraza, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 4/30/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 165
AVG: .288OBP: .341OPS: .712HR: 1SB: 64
Peraza is an above-average defensive shortstop and a 70-grade runner who played well as a 19-year-old in the South Atlantic League in 2013 but will have to show he can hit for enough power to keep up that performance into the big leagues.
He has a very short, direct swing with almost no load and very little follow-through and has posted very high contact rates across his three seasons in pro ball but virtually no power -- a concern because, by the time a player like this reaches Double-A, pitchers will start to try to pound him inside with velocity, and he needs to find enough strength to fight that stuff off.
Peraza is slight, but not weak, and might end up with 10-homer power if he can relax his swing's finish and get more loft in it. In the field, Peraza has very quick feet and good actions for a shortstop; he projects as a 65 or better defender at second, where he might end up because of Andrelton Simmons' presence at shortstop and where Peraza would be a potential All-Star.
Top level: Low Class A (Rome) | 2013 rank: Unranked
100Rob Kaminsky, LHP
AGE: 19DOB: 9/2/94B/T: R/LHT: 5-11WT: 191
W-L: 0-3ERA: 3.68IP: 22.0SO: 28BB: 9
Kaminsky was one of the most polished high school arms in last year's draft, boasting already impressive stuff and good feel for pitching to make up for his lack of projection.
The New Jersey prep product sits at 90-92 mph with his fastball as a starter now, but his current money pitch is a grade-65 curveball with tight rotation and good depth; he has some feel for a changeup, but it's well behind the other two pitches due largely to lack of use in high school. He has a strong lower half and makes good use of it with a long "step-over" stride, moderate hip rotation and an arm swing by which he pronates his forearm quickly after an early Lincecum-like plunge. He's athletic for his build and finishes well over his front side, which he has to do to avoid the plague of the undersized starting pitcher -- a fly ball tendency from a fastball that doesn't sink or tail.
He doesn't offer any physical projection and will probably peak in the 90-94 mph range at best, but hitters say he's extremely hard to hit because they don't see the ball and can't distinguish between the fastball and the curve. If that changeup comes along, he's a potential No. 3 starter, and he should fare very well in the low minors as he's learning.
Top level: Rookie (Gulf Coast) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
51Jackie Bradley Jr., OF
AGE: 23DOB: 4/19/90B/T: L/RHT: 5-10WT: 195
AVG: .275OBP: .374OPS: .842HR: 10SB: 7
While Bradley Jr.'s Jackpot Wad took over Fort Myers last spring, with a .419/.507/.613 line in 62 at-bats, the push for his Hall of Fame induction might have been a touch premature, as Bradley wasn't the same guy when the bell rang in April as he was when the games didn't count.
Major league pitchers were able to beat him in the zone with plus velocity and down and away with off-speed stuff, but Bradley managed to perform as well as expected after a demotion to Pawtucket. His ideal game is plus-plus defense in center with a high OBP at the plate and fringy power, maybe 10 to 15 homers a year; when he tries to over-rotate to hit the ball out to right, he expands his zone and makes less contact as a result.
Staying short to the ball and focusing on going line-to-line rather than trying to hit for power should make him an above-average regular, with OBPs in the .360 to .380 range. He could also save 10 or more runs a year on defense, enough to make Red Sox fans say "Jacoby who?"
Top level: Majors (Boston) | 2013 rank: 40
52Billy Hamilton, CF
AGE: 23DOB: 9/9/90B/T: B/RHT: 6-0WT: 160
AVG: .256OBP: .308OPS: .651HR: 6SB: 75
I was a little too optimistic about Hamilton's hit tool last year, and his 2013 season in Triple-A showed he's not quite ready to make an impact in the majors.
Hamilton's an 80-grade runner, perhaps the fastest man to step on a baseball field in a few decades, and his baserunning has improved to an unheard-of degree since he signed with the Reds, who've also taught him to switch-hit and switched him to center field, with the latter transition more successful so far than the former.
His issue is that pitchers have begun crowding him on the inner half because his wrists aren't strong enough to handle hard stuff in on his hands; you need a certain degree of hand/wrist strength to hit what major league pitchers are throwing, especially to that area of the zone. If he can find that missing strength, he has the other tools to be an impact player -- his speed is game-changing, and he's already an above-average defender in center.
I'm still concerned about Hamilton's ability to make this adjustment, as his frame is narrow, so his probability isn't great, while his upside still is.
Top level: Majors (Cincinnati) | 2013 rank: 30
53Garin Cecchini, 3B
AGE: 21DOB: *****/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 200
AVG: .297OBP: .388OPS: .865HR: 15SB: 7
Cecchini had a minor hamstring issue that slowed him down in 2013, but he showed he could really hit, projecting as a consistent .300-plus hitter whose future hit grade is a 65 or a 70. Now he just has to show he can stay at third base.
As a hitter, Cecchini has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, actually walking more than he struck out this year despite moving up a level midseason. He has some raw power but rarely shows it in games, preferring to use the middle of the field, although with no stride and a tendency to stay more linear and short to the ball, he'll have a hard time getting past 15 homers. His defense at third will never be pretty, but I believe he can stay there based on his instincts and game awareness, which will make up for a lack of first-step quickness.
His downside is a Bill Mueller-type of career, but I see Cecchini hitting for higher averages and OBPs while providing comparable defense at third base.
Top level: Double-A (Portland) | 2013 rank: Unranked
54Rosell Herrera, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 10/16/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 180
AVG: .343OBP: .419OPS: .933HR: 16SB: 21
Herrera was my sleeper prospect for the Rockies going into 2012 but ended up demoted to short-season ball that summer and looked like he might never capitalize on his prodigious talent. He turned it around in 2013 in a return to Asheville, showing more maturity in all aspects of his game, with speed and power and even a surprisingly high walk rate.
His offense is a function of his immense physical gifts, as his lower half is going to generate noise complaints from neighbors, from a comically high leg kick and late landing to a soft front side when he overswings. He has very quick hands and likes to get his arms extended to drive the ball out to the gaps, with good hip rotation once his legs are firmly on the ground.
He might not stay at shortstop; he has the actions and quickness, but his frame is big and he could end up outgrowing the position and moving to third. He should have the power for the position, 20-plus homers a year, with solid OBPs once the Rockies can smooth him out at the plate.
Top level: Low Class A (Asheville) | 2013 rank: Unranked
55Colin Moran
AGE: 21DOB: 10/1/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 190
AVG: .299OBP: .354OPS: .796HR: 4SB: 1
Moran went fifth overall in the 2013 draft, the first time the Marlins selected a college position player with their first-round pick since taking Mark Kotsay in 1996. In doing so, the Marlins passed on better athletes and players with more upside to take a very strong college performer who did almost everything you'd want from an amateur player at the plate.
His swing isn't pretty the way you'd expect from a left-handed hitter with his pedigree; he takes a long stride forward in the box but keeps his weight back, also keeping his hands very deep, with good hip rotation as well. His hands come set in a different spot from swing to swing, and he can get locked into a "grooved" path that has him cutting up too much through the ball. What he does have, beyond performance, are very strong wrists and forearms that allow him to drive the ball even when he's a half-tick behind in his timing, as well as excellent plate discipline and a willingness to lay off pitches he can't drive.
At third base, he has the hands and arm but is rough getting his feet started, in part because he always starts on his heels, and in part because he's not a quick-twitch athlete.
He'll have many questions to answer in the Florida State League in 2014, from his defense to his ability to hit better pitching, but if he answers most of those, he's a potential No. 3 or No. 5 hitter and above-average regular at third base.
Top level: Low Class A (Greensboro) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
56Blake Swihart, C
AGE: 21DOB: 4/3/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-1WT: 175
AVG: .298OBP: .366OPS: .794HR: 2SB: 7
Swihart, the No. 100 prospect on my list before the 2012 season, had a slow start that year but finished strong, and then carried it over with a breakout season in 2013 that saw him improve on offense and defense.
He is a tremendous athlete who played all over the field in high school, but last year the athleticism started to translate into very good defensive skills, with a plus arm that's quite accurate to go with better actions and receiving behind the plate. As a hitter, Swihart started to control the zone more effectively in 2013, with a 20 percent drop in his strikeout rate and a 33 percent hike in his walk rate even with the move up to high-A. He's a switch-hitter who lacked reps from the left side before entering pro ball but made substantial progress in his approach from that side last year, taking more than 80 percent of his plate appearances from that side.
Right now, Swihart is more of a line-drive hitter with doubles power but still projects to have average to above-average power when he peaks, 15 to 20 bombs a year, along with a strong OBP and plus defense behind the plate. He wasn't young for his level in either of the past two years, as he graduated high school at 19, but he's ready for Double-A now. With defensive wizard Christian Vazquez ahead of him, Swihart should get plenty of time in the high minors to continue to work on hitting left-handed and keeping his arm stroke short and simple behind the plate.
Top level: High Class A (Salem) | 2013 rank: Unranked
57Stephen Piscotty, OF
AGE: 23DOB: 1/14/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 210
AVG: .295OBP: .355OPS: .819HR: 15SB: 11
Piscotty was the Cardinals' supplemental first-round pick in 2012, their third overall selection after Michael Wacha and James Ramsey, an upside play on a player with ability who came from a program at Stanford that didn't make full use of his skills.
Freed from those constraints, Piscotty finished his first full year in pro ball in Double-A, striking out in less than 10 percent of his plate appearances on the year, then tearing up the Arizona Fall League in a hint of more production to come. Piscotty has a line-drive approach right now with hard contact to all fields, but he'll show plus pull power in batting practice, and you could see him becoming more comfortable dropping the bat head to drive the ball out to left as the season went on.
He's adequate in the outfield, better with reads and routes than with quickness or raw range, with a strong arm to stay in right. He's not a great athlete and is a below-average runner, but there's All-Star upside in the bat, a future No. 2 hitter profile who hits for average and power.
Top level: Double-A (Springfield) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
58Marcus Stroman, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 5/1/91B/T: R/RHT: 5-9WT: 185
W-L: 9-5ERA: 3.30IP: 111.2SO: 129BB: 27
As a relatively short, African-American pitcher, Stroman will get compared to Tom Gordon until the day he retires, but that might sell short the breadth of his arsenal and his chance to at least work as a starter in the majors for longer than Gordon did.
Stroman is an outstanding athlete who was drafted as a position player out of high school by the Nationals. He shunned Washington to attend Duke and made himself into a 2012 first-round pick on the mound, with a fastball that consistently sits 92-95 mph for 100 or so pitches. He'll now show three average-or-better secondary offerings in a hard slider/cutter at 86-88 that touched 91 for me in a short Arizona Fall League stint, a power slurve at 83-85 and a changeup with good tailing action in the 84-86 range. He has a very quick arm, and hitters don't pick up the ball well out of his hand, especially right-handed hitters who have to face his under-three-quarters slot coming right at them.
The knock on Stroman is his height. He's listed at 5-foot-9 and could be an inch under that, which makes it hard for him to get downhill plane on anything and will probably always leave him fly ball- and homer-prone. You can survive like that in the majors if you don't walk anyone, which Stroman doesn't, and if you miss a lot of bats, which so far he has. He's either a top-tier reliever, up in the Craig Kimbrel/Aroldis Chapman stratosphere, or a midrotation starter if he can keep the ball from leaving the park more than 25 to 30 times a year.
Top level: Double-A (New Hampshire) | 2013 rank: Unranked
59Erik Johnson, RHP
AGE: 24DOB: 12/30/89B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 235
W-L: 12-3ERA: 1.96IP: 142.0SO: 131BB: 40
Johnson built on a solid full-season debut in 2012 with an even better 2013 that saw him move from Double-A to Triple-A and reach the majors in September, racking up a full workload of 170 innings with just 51 walks across the three levels.
His stuff was better most of the year than what you might have seen from him in September, but when he isn't overthrowing his slider, he gets more depth to the pitch and misses a lot of bats with it. The slider is new to Johnson since his college days at California, replacing the mid-70s curveball that had a sharp break but was less effective against better hitters. He sits best at 92-93 mph, able to throw harder but with less life and command. His main developmental need is to improve his changeup, which looks good out of his hand but has not been effective enough against left-handed hitters since he reached Double-A.
He's built like a workhorse who can handle 220-plus innings in his peak years, with the fastball and swing-and-miss pitch to get him there if he can find a solution to get left-handed hitters out more consistently.
Top level: Majors (Chicago) | 2013 rank: Unranked
60Rafael Montero, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 10/17/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 170
W-L: 12-7ERA: 2.78IP: 155.1SO: 150BB: 35
Montero has a lower ceiling than the pitchers ahead of him on this list -- and even many of the pitchers behind him -- but he's extremely advanced right now and has better stuff than your standard "command right-hander," which is often a euphemism for a guy with a light fastball.
He will show plenty of 93s and 94s and commands the heck out of it to both sides of the plate, pairing it with an above-average slider and an above-average changeup, nothing knockout but all very effective because he can locate. His arm is quick, and while he's got a slight build for a starter, there isn't much effort involved in his delivery. My one concern on Montero is that he's a fly ball guy and could be homer-prone in the majors, although in his favor is the fact that in Las Vegas, a brutal park for a fly ball pitcher, he gave up just four homers in 88 innings.
He has the stuff and control (walking just six men in his final six starts of 2013) to contribute in the majors right now, and if the Mets need an extra starter in April or May, he should get the call before Noah Syndergaard.
Top level: Triple-A (Las Vegas) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
61Mookie Betts, 2B
AGE: 21DOB: 10/7/92B/T: R/RHT: 5-9WT: 156
AVG: .314OBP: .417OPS: .923HR: 15SB: 38
Betts was one of the year's biggest breakout prospects, a 2011 fifth-round pick who had an unremarkable pro debut in short-season Class A Lowell in 2012, but ripped through both full-season A-ball levels last year and established himself as one of the best middle infield prospects in the game.
He has some early hand movement before he loads his swing, but it's window-dressing and doesn't prevent him from being short and direct to the ball, with good hip rotation and some loft in his finish that could eventually produce 20-homer power. He's a plus runner and at least a 55-grade defender at second, with good range to his right and the athleticism to end up plus there; I know some scouts see him as a potential shortstop if the opportunity were to arise. His best attribute might be his feel for the strike zone; he's very balanced at the plate, even when he sees off-speed stuff, and makes quick adjustments within each at bat like a player with more pro experience would.
He could be an All-Star at second, maybe close to that at short, and despite his short stature there's still upside here because he's such a good athlete that he has untapped potential on both sides of the ball.
Top level: High Class A (Salem) | 2013 rank: Unranked
62Alex Meyer, RHP
AGE: 24DOB: 1/3/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-9WT: 220
W-L: 4-3ERA: 2.99IP: 78.1SO: 100BB: 32
When Meyer is on, he looks like a top-of-the-rotation guy, sitting in the upper 90s with sink and a slider sharp enough to sever someone's femoral artery on its way to the plate. He doesn't throw his changeup enough yet, and it's a grade-45 on bad days and a 50 (average) to 55 on good days, just something he needs to throw more and more to improve his feel for it, since his low-three-quarters arm slot gives left-handed hitters a nice long look at the ball out of his hand.
He is very lanky, and long-levered pitchers don't have a great history in MLB, as they often take more time to learn to repeat their deliveries and seem, anecdotally, to be injury-prone; only Randy Johnson and J.R. Richard have reached 20-plus WAR among pitchers 6-foot-8 or taller, and only Johnson has made 250 starts.
Meyer does have exceptional stuff, however, and there's not a lot of effort involved in him throwing 97 mph lawn darts, so there's cause to believe he can be a starter and potentially a No. 2 given enough time and patience.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2013 rank: 61
63Maikel Franco, 3B/1B
AGE: 21DOB: 8/26/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180
AVG: .320OBP: .356OPS: .926HR: 31SB: 1
Franco had a huge year at the plate in 2013, showing power and outstanding plate coverage, ripping through two levels just a year after he looked like he might need a late-spring demotion to short-season ball.
The 20-year-old punched out just 70 times in nearly 600 plate appearances, so while his recognition of off-speed stuff is poor, he has enough hand-eye coordination to foul off some of those pitches and keep himself alive to hunt for another fastball. His hands get very high and deep, and between that and his raw strength he has at least grade-65 power, although he doesn't always get to it between that deep load and inconsistent hip rotation.
Franco's main problem right now is position; he is a poor defender at third, a well below-average runner with thick lower legs whose first step was too slow for the position, although he has a 70 or so arm. The Phillies have indicated they intend to move him to first base, likely because they see Cody Asche as their third baseman of the future, limiting Franco's potential peak value.
He's an everyday player as a first baseman who should hit .290 or so with a low OBP but 25-30 homers a year, which might get him into the occasional All-Star game along the way.
Top level: Double-A (Reading) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
64Rougned Odor, 2B
AGE: 20DOB: 2/3/94B/T: L/RHT: 5-11WT: 170
AVG: .305OBP: .365OPS: .839HR: 11SB: 32
Odor doesn't have huge tools, but he has the one that counts, the hit tool, and tremendous feel for the game that has always had him playing above his raw abilities.
His swing isn't textbook, with a lot of extraneous movement in his front leg and in his hands before he loads, and he never really comes set, but still manages to whip the bat through the zone and generate lots of hard contact, mostly doubles power now but probably growing into 10-15 homers down the road. He's a very good defender at second base and an above-average runner with good instincts on the bases -- and pretty much everywhere else on the diamond. He's an aggressive, intense player, one who is now learning how to channel that into consistent production at the plate.
I'd like to see a quieter approach, but you can't change a kid who's had this much success as is and may never need to make that kind of adjustment; he's a potential All-Star at second, most likely a consistently above-average regular whom coaches love for his energy as well as his talent.
Top level: Double-A (Frisco) | 2013 rank: Unranked
65A.J. Cole, RHP
AGE: 24DOB: 1/5/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-9WT: 220
W-L: 10-5ERA: 3.60IP: 142.2SO: 151BB: 33
Cole was traded to Oakland in the Gio Gonzalez deal before 2012, flopped in high Class A for the Athletics, then went back to Washington in the three-team John Jaso/Michael Morse deal, after which he seemed to right the ship somewhat, even working his way up to Double-A by year-end.
His best pitch is still his fastball, 93-97 mph without a lot of effort, a little true but also one that gets in on right-handed hitters quickly. His curveball is more of a power slurve, 77-84 mph and varying in shape as he tries to maintain a consistent arm slot for the pitch; when he stays up toward three-quarters, it has angle and depth, and when he finishes it out front, it's a real weapon for him in pitchers' counts.
He began using his changeup more in Harrisburg and it was approaching average by the end of August, although he still showed a large platoon split in Double-A. His control is well ahead of his command, but the latter will come as he gets more consistency with his arm slot and release point.
Cole's still on the thin side with room to add some muscle, more for stamina than for added velocity, but the key for him is body control and repeating that delivery. With the Nats having one of baseball's best rotations, they can take their time to get Cole right, and develop him into a good midrotation starter.
Top level: Double-A (Harrisburg) | 2013 rank: 89
66Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 12/1/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 6-2ERA: 2.01IP: 67.0SO: 51BB: 12
Guerrieri was off to an excellent start in low Class A Bowling Green, running his career line to a 1.59 ERA in 119 innings with just 17 walks and 96 punchouts before his elbow snapped, requiring Tommy John surgery that will put him out of action until at least late summer.
He was a power arm out of the 2011 draft, but showed right away he had feel for pitching beyond anyone's evaluations of him in high school, locating down in the zone and throwing strikes with his fastball and breaking ball. Guerrieri will run it up to 97 mph but can find success a grade below that because he can sink it and work side to side, and the Rays have made him work more on the changeup since his curveball was already a plus pitch. He tested positive for marijuana while injured, leading to a 50-game suspension that will be covered by his time on the disabled list; it has little bearing on his on-field projection, but tells us something about a player's desire to reach the majors.
If Guerrieri can keep himself clean and get back on the field by August, he could be just a couple of years from a rotation spot, with No. 2 starter upside once he develops more feel for his change.
Top level: Low Class A (Bowling Green) | 2013 rank: 47
67C.J. Edwards, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 9/3/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 155
W-L: 8-2ERA: 1.86IP: 116.1SO: 155BB: 41
The Cubs acquired Edwards in the Matt Garza trade last July after which we quickly saw the return of his electric stuff and athletic, if slight, build.
Edwards will sit 91-96 mph with little effort, getting natural cutting action on the pitch as well as some downhill plane, and he has a big, old-school curveball that's a 55 or 60 on the 20-80 scale, and both pitches have missed bats in the minors. His changeup has made progress and was solid-average by year-end, giving him a three-pitch mix along with average control, similar in total package to Chris Archer at a similar stage of development.
Where Archer had size to go with his athleticism, Edwards is a rake, listed at 6-foot-2, 155 pounds, and while he's not that emaciated, he's still on the skinny side for a potential 200-inning starter. He's been healthy so far, and he has No. 2 starter upside if he can handle the workload associated with making 33 starts a year in the majors, a tremendous get for the Cubs for two months of Matt Garza's time.
Top level: High Class A (Daytona) | 2013 rank: Unranked
68Gary Sanchez, C
AGE: 21DOB: 12/2/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 220
AVG: .253OBP: .324OPS: .736HR: 15SB: 3
Sanchez shows flashes of star potential but has yet to put any of it together for an extended stretch of time -- although in his defense, he played all of 2013 at age 20 and has already reached Double-A, where he'll probably spend most or all of this season.
He has huge upside as a hitter, with plus-plus raw power and very hard contact, even with a slightly noisy approach, thanks to huge hip rotation and great strength in his wrists and forearms. His recognition of secondary stuff needs work, but his hand-eye coordination is so good that he's always had good contact rates, even striking out less often in the Florida State League than fellow young'uns Miguel Sano, Javier Baez and Byron Buxton.
Sanchez is often compared, unfairly, to former Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, but Sanchez has always been a better catcher across the board -- catching, throwing, agility -- and just needed to show the commitment and a better work ethic, which he did in 2013. He has a cannon, at least a 70-grade arm, and has improved his release over the past few years, but the finer points of catching like game-calling are still a ways off, and he may never be a good framer.
Even a grade-45 defender back there with Sanchez's potential offensive upside will be an MVP candidate, and if he continues to work at receiving and on his plate discipline he'll be ready to take over and make a real impact for the Yankees by 2016.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2013 rank: 18
69Kyle Crick, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 11/30/92B/T: L/RHT: 6-4WT: 220
W-L: 3-1ERA: 1.57IP: 68.2SO: 95BB: 39
Crick has two huge pitches in his fastball and slider, and hitters have a hard time connecting with either pitch, as his 34 percent strikeout rate in high Class A attests (43 percent in the Arizona Fall League).
The fastball is 92-97 and the mid-80s slider has average tilt but plays up because it's hard and hitters pick up the break late. He's got the size to be a starter as well, country strong and already looking like a big leaguer physically. There's a lot of refining to do from here, however, starting with his well below-average command, thanks to a high-effort delivery that he still hasn't gotten under control. His changeup remains a below-average pitch, hard and straight and easy to pick up, leading to big platoon splits. Crick missed time in the regular season with an oblique strain, throwing just 83 innings on the season including the AFL, so he may spend 2014 facing an innings cap.
Double-A will be a key test for Crick, who will have to command his fastball better and find a way to get lefties out now that he'll be facing a higher caliber of hitter. I know many scouts who see him as a potential No. 2 starter, but his probability right now is low and he may be more of a power reliever instead.
Top level: High Class A (San Jose) | 2013 rank: 76
70Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 10/7/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 200
W-L: 6-3ERA: 3.06IP: 129.1SO: 124BB: 66
Foltynewicz, which is Polish for "throws gas," had a strong showing in his second season at low Class A in 2012, and came into last season needing to show that his success there had nothing to do with his experience level. It's fair to say now that that's the case, as Foltynewicz was quickly promoted out of high Class A and pitched fairly well as a 21-year-old in Double-A, hitting 100 mph in every start of the year but his final one (when he topped out at 99, he must have been exhausted) and showing improvement in both secondary pitches.
His curveball and changeup are both developing, the curve (present grade of 55, future 60) more than the change (45/50), although with his impressive arm speed he could probably pick up a slider like it was a $20 bill lying on the pavement. For Foltynewicz, it's now about refinement -- improving his fastball command, working more to the bottom of the zone, and getting consistency with the two off-speed weapons.
It's an ace's fastball, but I think the overall package is more of a league-average to above-average starter, 200-plus innings of better performance than the Astros have seen from a starter in quite some time.
Top level: Double-A (Corpus Christi) | 2013 rank: Unranked
71Arismendy Alcantara, 2B
AGE: 22DOB: 10/29/91B/T: B/RHT: 5-10WT: 160
AVG: .271OBP: .352OPS: .804HR: 15SB: 31
Alcantara was a bit of a surprise pick for the 2013 Futures Game, given how many higher-profile prospects the Cubs have, but homered from the left side and impressed scouts with his range of tools; he had a cold spell right after the game, but bounced back in August for a solid seasonal line that still doesn't give you a great idea of his upside as a potential All-Star at second base.
He can run and is a legitimate switch-hitter with sneaky power thanks to very strong wrists. He's a versatile athlete who could back up shortstop but probably shouldn't play it every day; he could also likely handle center or third base if needed, and might be a candidate for a Tony Phillips-type super-utility role.
He needs to tighten up his control of the strike zone and a full year of playing second base would help him substantially. Of note: He bears a striking resemblance to Chris Paul.
Top level: Double-A (Tennessee) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
72Chris Owings, SS
AGE: 22DOB: 8/12/91B/T: R/RHT: 5-10WT: 180
AVG: .330OBP: .359OPS: .841HR: 12SB: 20
Owings returns to the rankings after an absence of two years; he ranked 84th in 2011 but comical walk rates and a lack of development in his approach at the plate seemed to slow his progress.
His 2013 line was boosted by playing in hitter-friendly Triple-A Reno, but Owings' bat speed is undeniable and his swing is simple and direct. I don't see loft in the swing for home-run power, but he's an above-average runner and I think he'll hit plenty of line-drives to the gaps for 30-40 doubles a year. At shortstop, he has great instincts, quick feet, and a plus arm, everything required to be at least a 60-grade defender there -- very much what Didi Gregorius was supposed to be, but with better hit and run tools.
Owings was 17 years old when he signed, so he had 2,000 pro plate appearances before he turned 22 and is more than ready to take over as the everyday shortstop in Arizona now, where he might walk once a week but will contribute in plenty of other ways to keep the job.
Top level: Majors (Arizona) | 2013 rank: Unranked
73Nick Kingham, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/8/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 220
W-L: 9-6ERA: 2.89IP: 143.1SO: 144BB: 44
Kingham was the Pirates' fourth-round pick in 2010 out of Las Vegas powerhouse Sierra Vista High School, which has also recently produced Astros first baseman Chris Carter and Tampa Bay's 2011 first-round pick Jake Hager.
Kingham looks like the best prospect the school has churned out so far, a command right-hander with three solid to above-average pitches and a fluid delivery that's easy for him to repeat. He'll sit in the low 90s with an above-average curveball, and his changeup has gradually improved over the past two seasons to the point at which it's consistently average or better -- at times the superior weapon to the breaking ball. Kingham comes from a slot just below three-quarters but gets on top of the ball well; his stride is moderate, but there's so little effort to his arm swing it's hard to believe he can reach the 93-94 range.
I wish he had a little more life or plane on the fastball, as he's a moderate fly ball pitcher, but all of the other elements are in place for a league-average, 200-inning starter once he gets a few reps in the majors.
Top level: Double-A (Altoona) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
74Alen Hanson, SS
AGE: 21DOB: 10/22/92B/T: B/RHT: 5-11WT: 170
AVG: .274OBP: .329OPS: .755HR: 8SB: 30
The 2013 season was a mixed bag for Hanson, who came into the season needing to work on his defense at shortstop. He did so, but perhaps to the detriment of his offensive performance.
At the plate, Hanson has a compact left-handed swing that makes a lot of contact with below-average power, while his right-handed swing has more loft but has produced less contact as he's moved up the minor league ladder. He's patient enough to work deep counts but isn't at the point at which he can convert that into either a high OBP or hard contact in hitter's counts; in the Arizona Fall League, in which he was clearly tired, he was chasing fastballs up and sliders down and away, looking completely overmatched as a result.
His defense improved substantially over the course of 2013; he was always athletic enough for the position but worked on his footwork and his mental approach at short, reducing the mistakes that bedeviled him in 2012.
His ceiling is an average defender at short who hits .300 with 50-60 walks per season and doubles power, which would be an above-average or better regular, but to get there, he'll have to shorten up from the right side and continue to improve his ball-strike recognition.
Top level: Double-A (Altoona) | 2013 rank: 34
75Zach Lee, RHP
AGE: 22DOB: 9/13/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 10-10ERA: 3.22IP: 142.2SO: 131BB: 35
I like Lee a little more than this ranking indicates, in part because I believe in betting on superior athletes to improve, even when a comparable player of less athletic ability would have plateaued.
If Lee never gets better, he's still a future No. 3 starter with a solid, average fastball at 90-94 mph which he can locate and an average-to-tick-above curveball that could be a little sharper. He'll also show a changeup with good action and a slider that, depending on the day, can look better than the curveball, although the consensus is that the latter will be his primary breaking ball.
Lee's an excellent athlete -- formerly committed to play quarterback at LSU -- with an easy, fluid delivery and superlative body control. I still think there's another gear in there when he gets to age 24 or so, maybe another grade of fastball, maybe a little quicker arm that makes the curveball sharper. He has a high floor thanks to his command and feel, but there is plenty of reason to hope for a little more.
Top level: Double-A (Chattanooga) | 2013 rank: 67
76Kohl Stewart, RHP
AGE 19DOB: 10/7/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 195
W-L: 0-0ERA: 1.35IP: 20SO: 24BB: 4
Stewart, a two-sport star who turned down a scholarship to play quarterback at Texas A&M to try his luck at baseball instead, was the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft and the first high school player taken.
He is a great athlete with exceptional arm strength but has a long way to go to develop into a frontline starter because his delivery is so crude. He's up to 97 mph without a lot of effort, sitting at 92-94 with good downhill plane and a little arm-side run. His slider is his best pitch right now: 85-88 with good, late tilt, but his command of the pitch is below average, not where his command of his power 79-82 mph curveball is. He does throw a changeup, making him an unusual prep pitcher with the full four-pitch mix, and has good arm speed at 83-85 with no action.
Stewart's delivery doesn't reflect his athleticism, as his hips are stiff and he gets his pitching arm turned over late, drifting off the rubber rather than striding with more force. All of those factors mean he has ace stuff, with a chance for at least two plus-plus pitches and four that are average or better but lacks the command or control right now to put them to good use.
The Twins will likely spend a lot of time with Stewart this spring, working on making him into a pitcher rather than a thrower, so he might be a good five years away from the majors, though he is the system's most exciting pitching prospect.
Top level: Rookie (Elizabethton) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
77Jesse Biddle, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 10/22/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-4WT: 225
W-L: 5-14ERA: 3.64IP: 138.1SO: 154BB: 82
Biddle is the Phillies' top pitching prospect, a local product who was outstanding early in the season before he came down with whooping cough.
When healthy, Biddle will sit at 90-92 mph but has 93-94 potential when he needs it. He complements the fastball with a big, slow curveball that lefties do not pick up at all, as well as solid-average changeup that he's continuing to improve his feel for. His fastball command came and went this season, with the illness -- which didn't prevent him from making every start until his last scheduled one of the season -- one factor behind that, but in his favor was an increased ability to get swings and misses on the fastball, something he'll need as neither the curve nor the change is a bona fide out pitch.
He's a solid No. 3 starter -- a little above league average -- with the potential for more if he doesn't contract diphtheria this summer.
Top level: Double-A (Reading) | 2013 rank: 95
78Jonathan Singleton, 1B
AGE: 22DOB: 9/18/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 235
AVG: .230OBP: .351OPS: .753HR: 11SB: 1
Singleton missed the first 50 games of 2013 after testing positive for marijuana, a drug for which players on the 40-man roster aren't tested, meaning this is no longer an issue for Singleton going forward. After his return, however, he wasn't in great shape and never got going at the plate until going to Puerto Rico for winter ball. He's probably in line to return to Triple-A to start 2014.
Everything the industry liked about Singleton in 2012 is still there -- a beautiful left-handed swing with extension through contact for power and great balance from start to finish. He's ready to face right-handed major league pitching right now, but his recognition against lefties has long been a weakness, with 48 punchouts in 120 plate appearances against them in 2013.
The floor here is a platoon regular who destroys right-handers but needs a caddie against southpaws; he has just 600 plate appearances against lefties in his pro career, though, and might just need more reps to become a complete player who is capable of hitting .270-280 with 25-plus homers and a strong OBP.
Top level: Triple-A (Oklahoma City) | 2013 rank: 32
79Hak-Ju Lee, SS
AGE: 23DOB: 11/4/90B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 170
AVG: .422OBP: .536OPS: 1.136HR: 1SB: 6
I saw Lee play on April 18 and was pleased to see a much better setup and swing from him at the plate than he'd showed in the Arizona Fall League in 2012. In his next game, however, he suffered a tramautic knee injury that knocked him out for the season and leaves his future potential up in the air.
So much of Lee's game revolves around his speed that if the injury reduces his ability to run or limits his lateral quickness at shortstop, he might lose any chance to be an impact player. That would be a shame because, prior to the injury, he looked like a star at shortstop, a potential plus defender and runner who has a very good approach at the plate with a line-drive swing, lacking only power among the five tools.
He's ranked in a holding pattern here until we see how much of his quickness remains, and for his sake and baseball's in general -- another Korean star player in MLB would only help grow the game globally -- I hope his tools are all intact.
Top level: Triple-A (Durham) | 2013 rank: 78
80Delino DeShields, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 8/16/92B/T: R/RHT: 5-9WT: 205
AVG: .317OBP: .405OPS: .873HR: 5SB: 51
DeShields didn't steal 100 bags again in 2013 but did have a solid season as a 20-year-old in hitter-friendly Lancaster, although, at this point, it's looking more like he'll end up in the outfield, most likely in left.
He can hit, with a short swing and strength to drive the ball to the gaps and maybe peaking as a 10-12 homer guy. An 80-grade runner in high school, he's more of a 65 runner now when underway, which is still plenty fast to rack up high stolen-base totals in the majors. His defense at second and in center remains below average, and his arm might limit him to left field down the road, where the Astros would hope he'd be a modern-day Tim Raines: getting on base with good defense and baserunning value.
His main issue, however, is a lack of effort -- his on-field effort level is often embarrassing and has many scouts I've talked to dismissing him as a top prospect entirely. I see a 21-year-old with a lot of physical ability who needs to grow up to reach his ceiling, but he's far too young to assume he'll never be able to do it.
Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2013 rank: 83
81Miguel Almonte, RHP
AGE: 20DOB: 4/4/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180
W-L: 6-9ERA: 3.10IP: 130.2SO: 132BB: 36
Almonte was one of several sleepers I mentioned in the still-exciting Royals system last season and should join fellow top-100 prospect Raul Mondesi in high Class A Wilmington this April on a club that might have half of the Royals' top 10 prospects on its Opening Day roster.
Almonte's potential is tremendous, with the upside of a No. 1 or 2 starter if everything clicks for him. He'll show an above-average fastball every time out now, but he'll flash a 70-grade fastball in some starts, hitting 95-96 mph on those nights, and his changeup is plus right now -- so good, in fact, that he might use it too often when he needs to work on his breaking ball and fastball command. He likes to throw two variations on the curve -- one a spike that he can't command (almost nobody can) -- and it's going to be time for him to pick one and focus on developing it to the exclusion of the other. Almonte's arm is very quick but he's still learning how to generate that speed from his lower half instead of just relying on his arm quickness.
That's about three major areas for him to improve on to reach that ceiling, which sounds like a lot until you see his birth date and consider that he started 2012 still in the Dominican Republic. He's a player Royals fans can dream on.
Top level: Low Class A (Lexington) | 2013 rank: Sleeper
82Vincent Velasquez, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 6/7/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 203
W-L: 4-3ERA: 2.99IP: 78.1SO: 100BB: 32
My sleeper prospect for Houston going into 2012 came back late in that season from 2010 Tommy John surgery but was back at full strength last season and quietly had an outstanding season for a kid making his full-season debut, even if it was a year later than expected.
Velasquez has filled out nicely since high school and now sits at 93-94 mph with his fastball -- touching 96. He's always had a good changeup, which now shows plus at times, with average command of both pitches and above-average control overall. Velasquez's biggest issue now is the breaking ball, which ranges from well below average to above average within the same game -- sometimes within the same inning -- because he hasn't found consistent feel for his release of that pitch -- a little surprising given his three-quarters arm slot and ability to stay on top of the ball.
He needs more reps -- he is 21 and has fewer than 200 innings of pro experience across three-plus seasons -- to see if the curve can become an average or better pitch; if it does, he's at least a mid-rotation guy, and, if not, I think he has the control and changeup to still be a No. 4 starter.
Top level: High Class A (Lancaster) | 2013 rank: Unranked
83Brian Goodwin, CF
AGE: 23DOB: 11/2/90B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 195
AVG: .252OBP: .355OPS: .762HR: 10SB: 19
Goodwin skipped high Class A in the summer of 2012, largely because the field conditions at Potomac are so poor that the Nats don't like sending outfield prospects there. Instead, he went right to Double-A Harrisburg, where he showed flashes of all five tools but never put everything together like I'd hoped, and returned there for all of 2013.
His season was uneven -- not bad -- as he did a lot of smaller things well, like working the count more effectively and improving his reads on defense. Goodwin is a plus-plus runner with quick wrists and generates plenty of bat speed for doubles and triples power with enough rotational action for maybe 10-15 homers per season. His arm would play in right or center, and with his speed, I think he's a lock to stay in center. His approach against right-handers is good, and his recognition problems with breaking stuff show up mostly against lefties, resulting in a growing platoon split.
When he's "on," there's an explosive aspect to his game that makes me think there's more production coming down the road and that he'll put everything together and end up a 70-grade defender who hits .280 with 70-80 walks per season and a slew of extra-base hits. He's just progressing in fits and starts and might be a guy who needs an extra 500 at-bats before the tools fully translate into results.
Top level: Double-A (Harrisburg) | 2013 rank: 44
84Jake Marisnick, CF
AGE: 23DOB: 3/30/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-3WT: 225
AVG: .289OBP: .350OPS: .840HR: 12SB: 11
Marisnick didn't belong in the majors in 2013; it seems like the Marlins might not have realized that he and Christian Yelich could play on separate teams, so when they promoted Yelich in July, they brought Marisnick up at the same time, but Marisnick hit just .183/.231/.248 in 118 plate appearances.
He's a very good athlete who already plays an excellent center field and whose power-speed combination might make him a better fantasy hitter than real-baseball hitter. Marisnick has a lot of swing and miss in his approach -- from poor pitch recognition to timing problems -- but when he gets his arms extended, he has above-average-to-plus power out to left and left-center and has the speed to turn some singles into doubles.
Rushing him a half-season too early won't help him work on his ability to pick up breaking stuff; he could probably use three months in Triple-A, if not more. Even if the Marlins feel like his defense will help them now, they might be leaving some potential untapped by forcing him to sink or swim against major league arms.
Top level: Double-A (Harrisburg) | 2013 rank: 44
85Tyler Austin, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 9/6/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 220
AVG: .265OBP: .351OPS: .730HR: 6SB: 4
Austin's all about the bat -- he can play right field but is nothing special there, and two seasons removed from any time at third base means he has no real chance to return to the dirt.
Unfortunately, he suffered a bone bruise in his wrist in late April, which he tried to play through it into July, that wrecked his first season in Double-A. He returned briefly in August and went to the Arizona Fall League but left there after two weeks with further discomfort in the joint. When healthy, Austin has a very sound swing that is geared both toward contact and power and is short to contact with good extension. He rotates his hips well to generate power, all with enough patience to keep his OBP in the .350 range. The wrist injury left his bat speed slower -- you see he was late on fastballs he'd have squared up a season before -- and it sapped most of his power as well.
He'll be only about average in right field -- making the necessary plays but not much more -- so he needs to hit and hit for power to be a regular. Like Hak-Ju Lee, he's still on this list as I wait to see if he's back to full strength in 2014, because I do believe in his potential with the bat.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2013 rank: 52
86Jonathan Schoop, SS
AGE: 22DOB: 10/16/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 210
AVG: .278OBP: .330OPS: .790HR: 14SB: 1
Schoop's season was all but ruined by a stress fracture in his lower back, so while he appeared for six different clubs in 2013 (including the Dutch World Baseball Classic team and Surprise in the Arizona Fall League), he was never quite himself anywhere he played.
He is a monster physically, and when he's healthy, he has plus to plus-plus power already, with 25-30 homer potential in a few years. He had some trouble with his swing this season after the back issue cropped up but looked better in the AFL -- more balanced throughout his swing and looser than he had been all season. But his timing was off and he didn't perform any better in Arizona than he had in Triple-A.
Schoop has played shortstop, but he's too big for the position, and after the back injury, Baltimore moved him to second base full time. I think he's a better fit at third; he has a 55- or 60-grade arm, and his hands are more than good enough for the infield, and the power will play at third base. Schoop needed the reset button of an offseason, and if he's healthy to start 2014, he could be in Baltimore by midseason at the keystone.
Top level: Majors (Baltimore) | 2013 rank: 50
87Mason Williams, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 8/21/91B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 180
AVG: .245OBP: .304OPS: .641HR: 4SB: 15
Williams was one of several top Yankee prospects to get hurt and have a disappointing 2013 season; the biggest knock of all on Williams was that he was out of shape to start the season and seemed to be playing and moving without energy. He did look more like his old self in the Arizona Fall League, having dropped some weight and running sub-4.2 seconds down the line again while playing better in center field.
He is a potential Gold Glove defender in center, a future 70 on the 20-80 scale with good reads off the bat and bursting speed to chase down balls in the gaps. He's not a hacker at the plate, but he's not as selective as he should be; he can make contact so easily that he often chases pitches he should let go by and needs to be willing to work the count more to his advantage. Williams also had some mechanical issues at the plate in 2013, finishing too closed after stridin and sometimes getting his front hip out too early, all of which need to be reined in to maximize his production.
His ultimate outcome should be a high-average, doubles-power guy who might hit 15 homers in his best season, but even .290-plus with 50-60 walks and 10 homers with great defense is an above-average regular.
Top level: Double-A (Trenton) | 2013 rank: 35
88Matt Davidson, 3B
AGE: 23DOB: 3/26/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 225
AVG: .280OBP: .350OPS: .831HR: 17SB: 1
Davidson has been on this list for four straight years and appears ready to take over as the White Sox's regular third baseman after they acquired him from Arizona in December.
He has a sweet right-handed swing: very simple and repeatable, with moderate loft in his finish. He is more of a 35-doubles candidate than a plus-power guy; he'll likely hit 15-20 homers per season if he doesn't get too pull-conscious, which, given his swing and approach would hurt him too much in the batting average and contact departments. He's an adequate third baseman, having worked substantially on his reads and getting his feet moving more quickly; you'd like to see him be more aggressive on balls in front of him -- especially ones he should play with one hand -- but he'll make the plays he has to make to be a solid defender.
He'll play at 23 years old in 2014 and still has a little development ahead of him -- mostly in pitch recognition -- but he should be an above-average regular at third base given a season or two there to continue to progress.
Top level: Majors (Arizona) | 2013 rank: 75
89Matt Barnes, RHP
AGE: 23DOB: 6/17/90B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 205
W-L: 6-10ERA: 4.13IP: 113.1SO: 142BB: 48
Barnes had a very strong season in Double-A, missing a ton of bats and continuing to develop his curveball and changeup. He's still not at the point at which he's likely to have all three offerings working on the same day.
He shows a low-90s fastball and can add a little more when needed; hitters don't see the ball well out of his hand at all, so he gets a ton of swings and misses on his fastball, even within the zone. His curveball was much better in the second half of the season, a downer breaking ball that he didn't command early but was more effective with later in the season, while his changeup was probably better in the spring and might be a little too hard to be more than an average pitch. He continues to command his fastball better than his off-speed stuff and will probably spend most of 2014 in Triple-A working on the latter.
I see at least a mid-rotation starter here, with a chance to play above that if the secondary pitches come along. Guys who miss bats with fastball strikes like this are pretty uncommon, so I could be easily selling him short.
Top level: Triple-A (Pawtucket) | 2013 rank: 79
90Christian Bethancourt, C
AGE: 21DOB: 9/2/91B/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 215
AVG: .277OBP: .305OPS: .741HR: 12SB: 11
Bethancourt repeated Double-A after an inexcusably bad season at the plate there in 2012 but seemed to make enough minor adjustments at the plate to at least get to his power more often and project as an everyday catcher in the majors.
His calling card is his defense -- perhaps the best in the minors right now -- which is good enough to challenge Yadier Molina's for the best in MLB when the time comes. He's a plus-plus receiver with an 80-grade arm that is strong, quick and accurate. At the plate, Bethancourt has plus power, but he's a relentless hacker, with just 78 walks in 1,824 career plate appearances (4.2 percent, if you didn't want to bust out Excel for that), and that lack of patience has held back his ability to get pitches he can drive.
If he gets a full season in the majors in 2015, he'll probably post an OBP of less than .300 but with 10-15 homers and two wins worth of defensive value. And if he ever figures out how to take a couple of pitches, there's more power in there -- enough to make him a fringe All-Star.
Top level: Double-A (Mississippi) | 2013 rank: Unranked
91Kolten Wong, 2B
AGE: 23DOB: 10/10/90B/T: L/RHT: 5-9WT: 185
AVG: .303OBP: .369OPS: .835HR: 10SB: 20
Wong has one above-average tool: his ability to hit. He combines that with very good instincts, so, despite his lack of any plus tools, the Cardinals are comfortable penciling him in as their everyday second baseman for 2014.
He has a short swing with above-average bat speed, letting the ball travel well and going for contact rather than power. His walk rates in pro ball haven't been great, but he doesn't strike out much and, in general, has been successful at putting the ball in play rather than just working the count for walks. His defense is average at second base; his arm is just a tick below average and his footwork is OK, but the Cardinals have done a great job at developing defenders and have improved Wong's reads and lateral range to the point at which he's more than fringy at the position. He's pretty much an average runner but massively improved his baserunning acumen last season.
I see an average regular here -- maybe a tick above -- with a little bit of upside if he develops a better on-base ability after some time in the majors.
Top level: Majors (St. Louis) | 2013 rank: 96
92Brandon Nimmo, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 3/27/93B/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 185
AVG: .273OBP: .397OPS: .756HR: 2SB: 10
Nimmo was the Mets' first-round pick in 2011 out of a high school in Wyoming that didn't have a baseball team, which left him with limited experience, mostly Americal Legion ball and some showcases the summer before his senior year. Despite having several above-average tools, he didn't have a lot of reps against decent pitching and moved slowly through short-season ball before reaching the hitter's graveyard of Savannah this season.
He raked away from Savannah (.302/.421/.405) and showed great patience at the plate, a hugely positive marker for a player as inexperienced as he is. Nimmo has great rotation in his swing but can be a little long to the ball because he loads his hands high, behind his left shoulder. He's a fringe-average defender in center -- better with reads than with range -- but he'll be plus in either corner. The main areas for improvement for Nimmo are against left-handed pitchers -- against whom he was better this season but still not where he'll need to be to play every day -- and staying healthy, as he had a nagging wrist injury last summer on top of knee surgery in high school.
High-OBP guys with other tools, especially defensive ability, are pretty uncommon, and a healthy Nimmo should be an average to above-average regular by the time he's 24.
Top level: Low Class A (Savannah) | 2013 rank: Just missed
93Justin Nicolino, LHP
AGE: 22DOB: 11/22/91B/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 190
W-L: 8-4ERA: 3.11IP: 142.0SO: 95BB: 30
Nicolino is the same guy he was a season ago, but the failure to miss bats this season was a disappointment given his combination of command and stuff.
He has a quiet delivery, extremely easy to repeat, which allows him to throw all three of his pitches for strikes with above-average command that will end up plus. His fastball is just average, but his changeup is already plus, if not better, and he'll show a 55-grade curveball that is a little short but plays up because he can locate it well. He's also played around with a slider, which isn't a viable weapon for him yet but could give him another way to keep hitters off balance.
Nicolino keeps his walk rates low and posts good (not huge) groundball rates, so his floor is high, but his ceiling isn't more than a slightly above-average starter until he shows he can strike more hitters out.
Top level: Double-A (Jacksonville) | 2013 rank: 62
94Hunter Renfroe, OF
AGE: 22DOB: 1/28/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 200
AVG: .271OBP: .308OPS: .767HR: 6SB: 2
Renfroe had two nondescript seasons at Mississippi State before breaking out in the spring of 2013, which helped push him to the top half of the first round of the draft once he had some results to go with his plus power and speed tools.
He is broad-shouldered with a solid build and has the plus-plus power you'd expect from a guy that size. His swing is very rotational, with a good stride into the ball and excellent follow-through to generate all of that power. He lifts his back foot off the ground at contact, which isn't ideal since it means he's hitting entirely off his front foot, something a few good big league hitters have done but that most don't.
He's a plus runner with a strong arm and should be an excellent defender in right, saving up to 10 runs per season between his glove and his arm. The question on Renfroe, and it's a significant one, is his pitch recognition and the resulting trouble he has making contact; he doesn't pick up spin that well, and pitchers can change speeds on him to get him off balance, all of which (plus fatigue) seemed to catch up to him in his very brief time in low Class A last season.
Right now, he projects as a low-average, power-speed guy, a No. 5- or 6-hole hitter who adds a lot of value on defense and on the bases -- but he'll have to improve his contact rates to get there.
Top level: Low Class A (Ft. Wayne) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
95Nick Ciuffo, C
AGE: 19DOB: 3/7/95B/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 205
AVG: .258OBP: .296OPS: .604HR: 0SB: 0
The best receiving catcher in the 2013 draft has some work to do in other aspects of his game but offers a high floor thanks to his good hands and above-average raw power.
As a hitter, Ciuffo has a simple left-handed swing, with very little stride and a consistent path. He rotates his hips well and has the hand strength to pull the ball, even when he rolls over his front foot through contact; that power makes him pull-conscious at times, something he'll have to avoid to keep his contact rate and batting average up.
Behind the plate, Ciuffo should be an excellent framer thanks to strong, yet soft, hands, and he's already improved his footwork since signing. He has plus arm strength but a long throwing stroke -- like he's winding up to pitch -- which he'll need to cut down to help him control the running game. I'm less concerned with his fielding than with his hit tool, as he has more work to do to use the whole field so he can keep his average up.
He's a potential above-average regular, a plus defender across the board who might hit .240-250 with 18-20 homers per season in a position at which a pulse is enough to put you above replacement level.
Top level: Rookie (Gulf Coast League) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
96Chris Anderson, RHP
AGE: 21DOB: 7/29/92B/T: R/RHT: 6-4WT: 215
W-L: 3-0ERA: 1.96IP: 46.0SO: 50BB: 24
The Dodgers' first-round pick in 2013 had an up-and-down spring at Jacksonville University -- blowing everyone away early in the spring with a plus slider and a fastball up to 95 mph -- but the coaching staff worked him hard and he couldn't maintain it through the end of the college season.
His velocity was better this summer after a brief layoff and some lighter use in pro ball, with his fastball touching 98 mph and his changeup solid-average or a tick below.
Anderson is physically imposing -- built for big workloads -- with a strong lower half and a good, long stride to the plate. He doesn't have the command or poise of system-mate Zach Lee but has a higher ceiling as a potential No. 2 starter if he can locate better and maintains his composure when something goes wrong behind him.
Top level: Low Class A (Great Lakes) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
97Josh Bell, OF
AGE: 21DOB: 8/14/92B/T: B/RHT: 6-3WT: 213
AVG: .279OBP: .353OPS: .806HR: 13SB: 1
Bell was on my 2012 list but suffered a season-ending knee injury that April and missed key development time, especially given how much work he had to do at the plate.
He is a switch-hitter with well-above-average power, even to the opposite field. He is far more advanced from the left side of the plate than the right side, from which his swing gets longer and his swing path is much less consistent. His ball-strike recognition was solid in high school and remains a strength; his walk rate was only fair in West Virginia last season, but part of that is the result of his strong plate coverage, not a lack of patience. His ability to drive pitches on the outer half out to left field when batting left-handed is unusual, especially for his age and for a hitter who doesn't strike out at an alarming rate.
The Pirates have kept Bell in right field, but he's far more likely to end up in left because he's a below-average runner with a below-average arm. If the bat comes along now that the lost season is behind him, though, he'll still profile as an average to above-average regular in left, getting on base at a .350-plus clip with 20-25 homers per season.
Top level: Low Class A (West Virginia) | 2013 rank: Unranked
98Tim Anderson, SS
AGE: 20DOB: 6/23/93B/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180
AVG: .277OBP: .348OPS: .711HR: 1SB: 24
Praise be the White Sox for finally being aggressive with their top draft picks; while it didn't work out for Courtney Hawkins in 2013, a raw high school kid who should have gone to low Class A rather than high A, pushing the 20-year-old Anderson to low A got him needed at-bats against better pitching.
Anderson held his own there, striking out a little more than you'd like but showing off his gap power and speed without ever looking overmatched. He has a very quick but mostly flat swing, more from his hands than his hips or legs, so he can slap the ball all over but isn't well set up to drive it in any direction. He drifts a little on to his front foot, which, combined with the lack of hip rotation, makes it hard to get maximum force into any contact he makes. He's a plus runner, and questions about his defense while in junior college were less evident in pro ball as the White Sox helped clean up his arm stroke, and his footwork has already improved.
He's a great athlete overall and does have the strength to surprise us down the road with 15-homer pop, but it's more likely he settles in as a slap-hitter/speed guy who plays above-average defense at short.
Top level: Low Class A (Kannapolis) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
99Jose Peraza, SS
AGE: 19DOB: 4/30/94B/T: R/RHT: 6-0WT: 165
AVG: .288OBP: .341OPS: .712HR: 1SB: 64
Peraza is an above-average defensive shortstop and a 70-grade runner who played well as a 19-year-old in the South Atlantic League in 2013 but will have to show he can hit for enough power to keep up that performance into the big leagues.
He has a very short, direct swing with almost no load and very little follow-through and has posted very high contact rates across his three seasons in pro ball but virtually no power -- a concern because, by the time a player like this reaches Double-A, pitchers will start to try to pound him inside with velocity, and he needs to find enough strength to fight that stuff off.
Peraza is slight, but not weak, and might end up with 10-homer power if he can relax his swing's finish and get more loft in it. In the field, Peraza has very quick feet and good actions for a shortstop; he projects as a 65 or better defender at second, where he might end up because of Andrelton Simmons' presence at shortstop and where Peraza would be a potential All-Star.
Top level: Low Class A (Rome) | 2013 rank: Unranked
100Rob Kaminsky, LHP
AGE: 19DOB: 9/2/94B/T: R/LHT: 5-11WT: 191
W-L: 0-3ERA: 3.68IP: 22.0SO: 28BB: 9
Kaminsky was one of the most polished high school arms in last year's draft, boasting already impressive stuff and good feel for pitching to make up for his lack of projection.
The New Jersey prep product sits at 90-92 mph with his fastball as a starter now, but his current money pitch is a grade-65 curveball with tight rotation and good depth; he has some feel for a changeup, but it's well behind the other two pitches due largely to lack of use in high school. He has a strong lower half and makes good use of it with a long "step-over" stride, moderate hip rotation and an arm swing by which he pronates his forearm quickly after an early Lincecum-like plunge. He's athletic for his build and finishes well over his front side, which he has to do to avoid the plague of the undersized starting pitcher -- a fly ball tendency from a fastball that doesn't sink or tail.
He doesn't offer any physical projection and will probably peak in the 90-94 mph range at best, but hitters say he's extremely hard to hit because they don't see the ball and can't distinguish between the fastball and the curve. If that changeup comes along, he's a potential No. 3 starter, and he should fare very well in the low minors as he's learning.
Top level: Rookie (Gulf Coast) | 2013 rank: Ineligible
jewbacca
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The Astros have some serious prospects on the way.
And it is well deserved after these couple years of misery.
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A.J. Burnett: New and Best Option.
Are We Overrating the Nationals Again?
A Data-Centric View on Why the Phillies May Want to Avoid Losing.
Spending $50 Million on Two Very Different Pitchers.
What If Mike Trout Had Average Speed?
Doing More With Less.
I wrote a little bit about A.J. Burnett late last week. The article is here, and it’s about the significance to the Pittsburgh Pirates of Burnett deciding to either retire or return to Pittsburgh for another go. I figured it would be a hugely significant decision either way, and I wrote it like that because things appeared like that: The most recent word was that Burnett would either come back for the same team or hang it up for good to spend time with his family. There was no real indication Burnett would be willing to consider other employers if he returned.
So Travis Sawchik brought some news on Tuesday. The good news for the Pirates: Burnett intends to pitch in 2014. The bad news for the Pirates: Burnett intends to explore other organizations. Which doesn’t mean he’s written the Pirates off, but now they’ll have competition. Burnett’s officially a pursuable free-agent now, and while he could still end up back in the same uniform, he’s got his eyes and ears open. And that changes a whole lot of things.
Or maybe it just changes one thing — that being the market for free-agent starting pitching. But then that market is important to a handful of players and to a handful of teams. There are two big things to consider. For one, the Pirates declined to extend to Burnett a qualifying offer, so he can be signed without the sacrifice of a draft pick. And secondly, Burnett might suddenly be the best free-agent starter left. Where the rest of baseball was thinking about Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo and a few others, Burnett might be the best bet to have a good year in 2014.
But…. Burnett’s old! Totally. He’s had elbow problems in the very distant past. With age comes a certain degree of unpredictability, and every passing day brings Burnett closer to the day on which he can no longer throw successfully in the major leagues. Yet Arroyo’s just as old. Santana’s a year removed from being a salary dump by a team in need of starting pitching. Jimenez is a year removed from being a mechanical mess with almost triple-digit walks. On the remaining market, there’s security and dependability to be found nowhere. What we do have are performance numbers, and they paint a certain picture.
Burnett seemed to turn his career around when he landed with the Pirates a couple seasons ago. Over that span, he made 61 starts. Among starters, he ranked in the top tenth in WAR. He was also in the top tenth in adjusted FIP and xFIP, and only three other starters generated a higher groundball rate. If ace pitchers get strikeouts while limiting walks and dingers, Burnett has recently done two of the three, and it’s not like his walks have been out of control. Around his Pirates numbers, you find the names of other really good pitchers.
Santana and Jimenez are looking to cash in on really successful 2013 campaigns. Burnett beat them in Wins Above Replacement. And Burnett was also good in 2012, when Santana and Jimenez were wrecks. if you care more about looking forward than about looking back, well, for one thing, a big part of looking forward is looking back. But also, Burnett is projected to be the best starter out of the free-agent pool, at least according to Steamer. Santana and Jimenez are projected to be fine, but Burnett is projected to be legitimately good.
That’s enough about math; enough about projections. We can be satisfied just calling the starters reasonably good. Burnett stands to be a shorter-term acquisition, but that kind of works to a team’s benefit more than detriment with free agents older than 30. And as noted, Burnett doesn’t have the draft pick attached the way that Santana and Jimenez do. Teams are valuing those draft picks highly, maybe too highly, and that’s a reason why Matt Garza signed first. That’s a reason why some teams have looked at Arroyo as an alternative. Give up a pick for a free-agent, and you’re basically getting the player for money and a prospect. Burnett would require no such prospect.
It might scare some teams off that Burnett only turned things around when he returned to the National League. There’s some potential legitimacy in that concern. One might also recall that Burnett spent 2013 pitching to quality catcher Russell Martin, and Martin is documented to be an excellent framer. But Burnett was also successful in 2012 pitching to Rod Barajas, so it’s not like framing can explain away everything. Burnett has pitched well to a good catcher and to a bad one.
One thing we don’t know is just how open Burnett will be to pitching somewhere other than Pittsburgh. If he wants to stay in the vicinity of his family on the East Coast, he’s probably not bolting for Seattle or Oakland. He’s not a true free-agent in the usual sense of the term. But if he’s willing to pitch for other teams then that’s obviously somewhat bad news for Santana and Jimenez and the rest, because he represents increased supply with constant demand. He might now be another option for the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s clearly an option for the Baltimore Orioles. The Philadelphia Phillies have been rumored, and there are others who could check in. At the top of the class, Santana and Jimenez have a little less leverage because now there’ll be a little less desperation.
The thought that keeps crossing my mind is that the Orioles could somewhat salvage a nothing offseason by plucking Burnett out of free agency. He’s better than Arroyo, he’s probably better than Santana and Jimenez, and he wouldn’t cost a pick. He’d make a bigger impact than signing Nelson Cruz or Kendrys Morales, probably, and again, he wouldn’t cost a pick. Maybe the Orioles could even swing a pair of moves, with Burnett being the more important one. That’s a team with holes on it. I don’t know how much money they really have to spend, but they seem like the most likely Option B for Burnett after the Pirates, who couldn’t even afford to offer Burnett $14 million. The Orioles might be able to make the biggest move left.
Or maybe they’ll sit it out. Or maybe Burnett will end up back with the Pirates after all. The need is there, and the Pirates are close enough to true playoff contention. The only thing we know for sure at the moment is that Burnett is going to pitch instead of retire. But as a pitcher without a current team, Burnett sure changes the look of the free-agent landscape. Somehow, A.J. Burnett, of all people, has been more consistent than the previously thought-of top of the class.
So Travis Sawchik brought some news on Tuesday. The good news for the Pirates: Burnett intends to pitch in 2014. The bad news for the Pirates: Burnett intends to explore other organizations. Which doesn’t mean he’s written the Pirates off, but now they’ll have competition. Burnett’s officially a pursuable free-agent now, and while he could still end up back in the same uniform, he’s got his eyes and ears open. And that changes a whole lot of things.
Or maybe it just changes one thing — that being the market for free-agent starting pitching. But then that market is important to a handful of players and to a handful of teams. There are two big things to consider. For one, the Pirates declined to extend to Burnett a qualifying offer, so he can be signed without the sacrifice of a draft pick. And secondly, Burnett might suddenly be the best free-agent starter left. Where the rest of baseball was thinking about Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Bronson Arroyo and a few others, Burnett might be the best bet to have a good year in 2014.
But…. Burnett’s old! Totally. He’s had elbow problems in the very distant past. With age comes a certain degree of unpredictability, and every passing day brings Burnett closer to the day on which he can no longer throw successfully in the major leagues. Yet Arroyo’s just as old. Santana’s a year removed from being a salary dump by a team in need of starting pitching. Jimenez is a year removed from being a mechanical mess with almost triple-digit walks. On the remaining market, there’s security and dependability to be found nowhere. What we do have are performance numbers, and they paint a certain picture.
Burnett seemed to turn his career around when he landed with the Pirates a couple seasons ago. Over that span, he made 61 starts. Among starters, he ranked in the top tenth in WAR. He was also in the top tenth in adjusted FIP and xFIP, and only three other starters generated a higher groundball rate. If ace pitchers get strikeouts while limiting walks and dingers, Burnett has recently done two of the three, and it’s not like his walks have been out of control. Around his Pirates numbers, you find the names of other really good pitchers.
Santana and Jimenez are looking to cash in on really successful 2013 campaigns. Burnett beat them in Wins Above Replacement. And Burnett was also good in 2012, when Santana and Jimenez were wrecks. if you care more about looking forward than about looking back, well, for one thing, a big part of looking forward is looking back. But also, Burnett is projected to be the best starter out of the free-agent pool, at least according to Steamer. Santana and Jimenez are projected to be fine, but Burnett is projected to be legitimately good.
That’s enough about math; enough about projections. We can be satisfied just calling the starters reasonably good. Burnett stands to be a shorter-term acquisition, but that kind of works to a team’s benefit more than detriment with free agents older than 30. And as noted, Burnett doesn’t have the draft pick attached the way that Santana and Jimenez do. Teams are valuing those draft picks highly, maybe too highly, and that’s a reason why Matt Garza signed first. That’s a reason why some teams have looked at Arroyo as an alternative. Give up a pick for a free-agent, and you’re basically getting the player for money and a prospect. Burnett would require no such prospect.
It might scare some teams off that Burnett only turned things around when he returned to the National League. There’s some potential legitimacy in that concern. One might also recall that Burnett spent 2013 pitching to quality catcher Russell Martin, and Martin is documented to be an excellent framer. But Burnett was also successful in 2012 pitching to Rod Barajas, so it’s not like framing can explain away everything. Burnett has pitched well to a good catcher and to a bad one.
One thing we don’t know is just how open Burnett will be to pitching somewhere other than Pittsburgh. If he wants to stay in the vicinity of his family on the East Coast, he’s probably not bolting for Seattle or Oakland. He’s not a true free-agent in the usual sense of the term. But if he’s willing to pitch for other teams then that’s obviously somewhat bad news for Santana and Jimenez and the rest, because he represents increased supply with constant demand. He might now be another option for the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s clearly an option for the Baltimore Orioles. The Philadelphia Phillies have been rumored, and there are others who could check in. At the top of the class, Santana and Jimenez have a little less leverage because now there’ll be a little less desperation.
The thought that keeps crossing my mind is that the Orioles could somewhat salvage a nothing offseason by plucking Burnett out of free agency. He’s better than Arroyo, he’s probably better than Santana and Jimenez, and he wouldn’t cost a pick. He’d make a bigger impact than signing Nelson Cruz or Kendrys Morales, probably, and again, he wouldn’t cost a pick. Maybe the Orioles could even swing a pair of moves, with Burnett being the more important one. That’s a team with holes on it. I don’t know how much money they really have to spend, but they seem like the most likely Option B for Burnett after the Pirates, who couldn’t even afford to offer Burnett $14 million. The Orioles might be able to make the biggest move left.
Or maybe they’ll sit it out. Or maybe Burnett will end up back with the Pirates after all. The need is there, and the Pirates are close enough to true playoff contention. The only thing we know for sure at the moment is that Burnett is going to pitch instead of retire. But as a pitcher without a current team, Burnett sure changes the look of the free-agent landscape. Somehow, A.J. Burnett, of all people, has been more consistent than the previously thought-of top of the class.
Are We Overrating the Nationals Again?
A year ago, pretty much everyone picked the Nationals to win the NL East. Why not? They’d won 98 games in 2012, and they’d done so without full seasons from Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, or Jayson Werth. They’d done so without a real center fielder, since Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina had started 64 games there while Harper was still in the minors or otherwise unavailable, a problem that newcomer Denard Span was intended to fix. They’d also won 98 without Rafael Soriano, a seemingly luxurious addition who had been added to a bullpen that was already solid, and without Dan Haren, who was a risk but had many years of excellent performance behind him and wasn’t being counted on to be more than the fourth starter.
No one wanted to say that the Nationals were going to top 100 wins, but plenty of us thought it. In a division with only one other serious contender, they seemed like a lock. They seemed like the safest bet in the game.
It didn’t work out that way, because it never does. The Nationals didn’t win 100 games, or anything close to it. Besieged by injuries to Harper, Werth, and Ross Detwiler, as well as an atrocious first half from Haren and big steps back from Danny Espinosa and Drew Storen, Washington was still a .500 team into late August. That they managed to even get to a final record of 86-76 was due to a furious 18-9 September and big contributions from a healthy Werth and a repaired Haren, but they didn’t come close to the playoffs and ended the year as one of 2013′s biggest disappointments.
A year later, we’re doing it again. The Nationals are routinely appearing on lists of “best winters” or “most improved,” largely due to the heist that added Doug Fister to what is now one of baseball’s most fearsome rotation foursomes without subtracting much in return. The moves to import lefty reliever Jerry Blevins and backup outfielder Nate McLouth weren’t quite so splashy, but each should add a small amount of value, and that great September run certainly didn’t hurt. Just yesterday, Buster Olney named the Nationals as his pick to win the NL East, and he’s not wrong; I’d probably do the same, because Fister is great, the East still only has one other good team, and I don’t fully trust an Atlanta lineup that didn’t replace Brian McCann and still has to depend on B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla.
Rank Team WAR
16 Pirates 36.9
17 Giants 36.6
18 Nationals 36.5
19 Mariners 36.5
20 Orioles 33.5
By all accounts, the 2014 Nationals are going to be the best team in the division. And yet, I can’t help but remember what happened last year and look at our Depth Charts, which have a decidedly less rosy outlook on Washington. The Nationals are seen as being essentially tied for 17th with the Giants, who lost 88 games last year and didn’t do much to improve this winter outside of Tim Hudson and Michael Morse. They’re seen as being equal to the Mariners, who lost 91 games and had to add Robinson Cano just to get to this point. They’re below the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rockies, who didn’t make the playoffs last year and probably aren’t going to be on many preseason predictions lists this year.
Obviously, in order to put stock into that, you have to believe in two things: Steamer projections and the playing time estimates entered by our depth chart team, comprised of FanGraphs authors. (I manage the NL West, so you know where to go if anything seems off to you.) Neither of those are infallible, though I think both do a pretty good job, so you’re free to put as much or as little faith into those projections as you like.
For my part, I’m not comfortable just pushing those numbers aside, so let’s look into this. Are we completely overrating the Nationals again? Or is it something else? Eyeballing the lineup projections, most seem about right, with maybe a few sticking points. Adam LaRoche at 1.1 WAR isn’t unfair as he heads into his age-34 season, not when he’s been worth less than a win in three of the last four years. (The Fan Scouting Report has him at 1.7 WAR at the moment, so you apparently don’t feel too differently.) Ryan Zimmerman may yet have another elite season in him, but for now he’s projected to essentially repeat 2013, and I think we all know at some point in the near future he’s no longer a third baseman.
Werth at 2.0 WAR definitely feels low, but then again, he’ll be 35 years old and he’s seemingly always fighting injuries, so part of that projection is the fact that he’s only pegged for 476 plate appearances right now, as well as that he was worth only three wins total in 2011-12. (What the projection systems can’t know, of course, is the change in his batting stance last summer that seemed to kick off his fantastic tear.) If anything is going to stand out there to Nationals fans, it’s going to be shortstop Ian Desmond, projected for 3.0 WAR after back-to-back seasons of 5.0 WAR. Steamer expects him to give back some of his value on offense — and he largely didn’t maintain his 2012 power in 2013 — as well as being less valuable on defense. I’m not going to put money on another five win season from Desmond, but if you feel that’s a little light, I wouldn’t argue all that strenuously with you about it.
When you flip over to the rotation, some of the risk begins to appear. The top four, with Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann joining Strasburg and Fister, is one of the top quartets in the game. Argue for the Dodgers, maybe, or the Tigers — less so now that Fister is gone, of course — or maybe the Cardinals, but this is a projected group that’s tough to beat:
Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Stephen Strasburg 186.0 9.9 2.8 0.7 .305 73.2 % 3.13 2.90 4.0
Gio Gonzalez 180.0 8.9 3.4 0.7 .304 71.1 % 3.68 3.37 2.9
Jordan Zimmermann 174.0 7.0 2.0 0.9 .305 70.3 % 3.77 3.54 2.5
Doug Fister 164.0 7.3 1.9 0.6 .310 70.8 % 3.32 3.09 3.1
…but then, that’s what we said last year too, and when Detwiler couldn’t answer the bell — he made just one start after June — the team’s lack of rotation depth was exposed. Ross Ohlendorf and rookies Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark actually pitched well in limited time, but so far 2014 looks like the exact same situation:
Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Tanner Roark 122.0 6.9 2.7 0.8 .306 69.7 % 3.93 3.68 1.5
Ross Detwiler 28.0 6.0 2.7 0.9 .306 68.1 % 4.33 4.00 0.2
Taylor Jordan 28.0 6.1 2.5 0.7 .307 68.2 % 4.06 3.74 0.3
Ross Ohlendorf 28.0 7.2 2.9 1.1 .299 73.5 % 3.91 4.13 0.2
Danny Rosenbaum 28.0 5.2 3.7 1.0 .302 66.7 % 4.99 4.65 0.0
Chris Young 21.0 5.7 3.0 1.5 .291 71.1 % 4.88 5.08 -0.1
Nate Karns 21.0 8.6 4.1 0.8 .301 70.6 % 4.08 3.87 0.2
Roark’s not a bad guy to have around — I assume I don’t need to tell you to ignore the 7-1 and 1.51 ERA in limited time last year, largely against lousy competition — but ideally, he’s someone who steps in when you need a replacement, not someone you’re counting on. Detwiler plans to compete to win his job back; he’s also been healthy enough to throw more than 75 innings exactly once in his career, and was one of just six pitchers last year to throw at least 70 frames and strike out fewer than five per nine. As for the rest? If Young or Rosenbaum is actually seeing signficant time, something has gone extremely wrong.
Maybe this is a landing spot for A.J. Burnett, if reports that he’ll pitch for a team that isn’t the Pirates (but presumably not far from his Baltimore home) are true. Maybe, as illustrated in Jeff Sullivan’s article earlier this week, perhaps the additional win or two or three that an Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez could add makes Washington the ever-present “mystery team” who finds more value in that small boost than other teams might. Yes, a draft pick would be lost, but clearly Nats GM Mike Rizzo hasn’t been averse to the surprise January move, as we saw last year when he grabbed Soriano out of seemingly nowhere, and Detwiler might be better off a second lefty in the pen than he’d ever be as a mediocre starter. (For the record, I wrote something very similar about the possibility of them going after Kyle Lohse last year, for nearly identical reasons. Nats fans were not pleased, to put it lightly. I wonder if that’d be the same reaction now.)
Back to the original topic, when we make division predictions again, I’m probably going to pick Washington. It’s hard not to, with the idea of Harper and Werth and adding Fister to that rotation, especially when the Mets, Marlins, and Phillies look like disasters and the Braves have issues of their own. With everything running at full speed, this could very well be the 100 win team we thought we’d see last year. But it’s hard to wash over how injury-prone their offensive stars seem to be (toss in Anthony Rendon‘s ankles to that conversation), or how boom-or-bust LaRoche is, or how little they have behind catcher Wilson Ramos, or how much of a question mark their rotation depth could be, and so that pick is going to get made with just a little more hesitation on my part. Adding another starter, even with how talented that rotation appears to be, would go a long way towards alleviating that.
No one wanted to say that the Nationals were going to top 100 wins, but plenty of us thought it. In a division with only one other serious contender, they seemed like a lock. They seemed like the safest bet in the game.
It didn’t work out that way, because it never does. The Nationals didn’t win 100 games, or anything close to it. Besieged by injuries to Harper, Werth, and Ross Detwiler, as well as an atrocious first half from Haren and big steps back from Danny Espinosa and Drew Storen, Washington was still a .500 team into late August. That they managed to even get to a final record of 86-76 was due to a furious 18-9 September and big contributions from a healthy Werth and a repaired Haren, but they didn’t come close to the playoffs and ended the year as one of 2013′s biggest disappointments.
A year later, we’re doing it again. The Nationals are routinely appearing on lists of “best winters” or “most improved,” largely due to the heist that added Doug Fister to what is now one of baseball’s most fearsome rotation foursomes without subtracting much in return. The moves to import lefty reliever Jerry Blevins and backup outfielder Nate McLouth weren’t quite so splashy, but each should add a small amount of value, and that great September run certainly didn’t hurt. Just yesterday, Buster Olney named the Nationals as his pick to win the NL East, and he’s not wrong; I’d probably do the same, because Fister is great, the East still only has one other good team, and I don’t fully trust an Atlanta lineup that didn’t replace Brian McCann and still has to depend on B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla.
Rank Team WAR
16 Pirates 36.9
17 Giants 36.6
18 Nationals 36.5
19 Mariners 36.5
20 Orioles 33.5
By all accounts, the 2014 Nationals are going to be the best team in the division. And yet, I can’t help but remember what happened last year and look at our Depth Charts, which have a decidedly less rosy outlook on Washington. The Nationals are seen as being essentially tied for 17th with the Giants, who lost 88 games last year and didn’t do much to improve this winter outside of Tim Hudson and Michael Morse. They’re seen as being equal to the Mariners, who lost 91 games and had to add Robinson Cano just to get to this point. They’re below the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rockies, who didn’t make the playoffs last year and probably aren’t going to be on many preseason predictions lists this year.
Obviously, in order to put stock into that, you have to believe in two things: Steamer projections and the playing time estimates entered by our depth chart team, comprised of FanGraphs authors. (I manage the NL West, so you know where to go if anything seems off to you.) Neither of those are infallible, though I think both do a pretty good job, so you’re free to put as much or as little faith into those projections as you like.
For my part, I’m not comfortable just pushing those numbers aside, so let’s look into this. Are we completely overrating the Nationals again? Or is it something else? Eyeballing the lineup projections, most seem about right, with maybe a few sticking points. Adam LaRoche at 1.1 WAR isn’t unfair as he heads into his age-34 season, not when he’s been worth less than a win in three of the last four years. (The Fan Scouting Report has him at 1.7 WAR at the moment, so you apparently don’t feel too differently.) Ryan Zimmerman may yet have another elite season in him, but for now he’s projected to essentially repeat 2013, and I think we all know at some point in the near future he’s no longer a third baseman.
Werth at 2.0 WAR definitely feels low, but then again, he’ll be 35 years old and he’s seemingly always fighting injuries, so part of that projection is the fact that he’s only pegged for 476 plate appearances right now, as well as that he was worth only three wins total in 2011-12. (What the projection systems can’t know, of course, is the change in his batting stance last summer that seemed to kick off his fantastic tear.) If anything is going to stand out there to Nationals fans, it’s going to be shortstop Ian Desmond, projected for 3.0 WAR after back-to-back seasons of 5.0 WAR. Steamer expects him to give back some of his value on offense — and he largely didn’t maintain his 2012 power in 2013 — as well as being less valuable on defense. I’m not going to put money on another five win season from Desmond, but if you feel that’s a little light, I wouldn’t argue all that strenuously with you about it.
When you flip over to the rotation, some of the risk begins to appear. The top four, with Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann joining Strasburg and Fister, is one of the top quartets in the game. Argue for the Dodgers, maybe, or the Tigers — less so now that Fister is gone, of course — or maybe the Cardinals, but this is a projected group that’s tough to beat:
Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Stephen Strasburg 186.0 9.9 2.8 0.7 .305 73.2 % 3.13 2.90 4.0
Gio Gonzalez 180.0 8.9 3.4 0.7 .304 71.1 % 3.68 3.37 2.9
Jordan Zimmermann 174.0 7.0 2.0 0.9 .305 70.3 % 3.77 3.54 2.5
Doug Fister 164.0 7.3 1.9 0.6 .310 70.8 % 3.32 3.09 3.1
…but then, that’s what we said last year too, and when Detwiler couldn’t answer the bell — he made just one start after June — the team’s lack of rotation depth was exposed. Ross Ohlendorf and rookies Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark actually pitched well in limited time, but so far 2014 looks like the exact same situation:
Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR
Tanner Roark 122.0 6.9 2.7 0.8 .306 69.7 % 3.93 3.68 1.5
Ross Detwiler 28.0 6.0 2.7 0.9 .306 68.1 % 4.33 4.00 0.2
Taylor Jordan 28.0 6.1 2.5 0.7 .307 68.2 % 4.06 3.74 0.3
Ross Ohlendorf 28.0 7.2 2.9 1.1 .299 73.5 % 3.91 4.13 0.2
Danny Rosenbaum 28.0 5.2 3.7 1.0 .302 66.7 % 4.99 4.65 0.0
Chris Young 21.0 5.7 3.0 1.5 .291 71.1 % 4.88 5.08 -0.1
Nate Karns 21.0 8.6 4.1 0.8 .301 70.6 % 4.08 3.87 0.2
Roark’s not a bad guy to have around — I assume I don’t need to tell you to ignore the 7-1 and 1.51 ERA in limited time last year, largely against lousy competition — but ideally, he’s someone who steps in when you need a replacement, not someone you’re counting on. Detwiler plans to compete to win his job back; he’s also been healthy enough to throw more than 75 innings exactly once in his career, and was one of just six pitchers last year to throw at least 70 frames and strike out fewer than five per nine. As for the rest? If Young or Rosenbaum is actually seeing signficant time, something has gone extremely wrong.
Maybe this is a landing spot for A.J. Burnett, if reports that he’ll pitch for a team that isn’t the Pirates (but presumably not far from his Baltimore home) are true. Maybe, as illustrated in Jeff Sullivan’s article earlier this week, perhaps the additional win or two or three that an Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez could add makes Washington the ever-present “mystery team” who finds more value in that small boost than other teams might. Yes, a draft pick would be lost, but clearly Nats GM Mike Rizzo hasn’t been averse to the surprise January move, as we saw last year when he grabbed Soriano out of seemingly nowhere, and Detwiler might be better off a second lefty in the pen than he’d ever be as a mediocre starter. (For the record, I wrote something very similar about the possibility of them going after Kyle Lohse last year, for nearly identical reasons. Nats fans were not pleased, to put it lightly. I wonder if that’d be the same reaction now.)
Back to the original topic, when we make division predictions again, I’m probably going to pick Washington. It’s hard not to, with the idea of Harper and Werth and adding Fister to that rotation, especially when the Mets, Marlins, and Phillies look like disasters and the Braves have issues of their own. With everything running at full speed, this could very well be the 100 win team we thought we’d see last year. But it’s hard to wash over how injury-prone their offensive stars seem to be (toss in Anthony Rendon‘s ankles to that conversation), or how boom-or-bust LaRoche is, or how little they have behind catcher Wilson Ramos, or how much of a question mark their rotation depth could be, and so that pick is going to get made with just a little more hesitation on my part. Adding another starter, even with how talented that rotation appears to be, would go a long way towards alleviating that.
A Data-Centric View on Why the Phillies May Want to Avoid Losing.
On Sunday, I wrote about the Phillies offseason and how their seemingly wishy-washy approach to rebuilding may, possibly, potentially, could be perfectly rational. Buried within the article was a throwaway comment. I said:
The fans in Philadelphia simply don’t have patience for losers.
Commenters rightly pointed out that this is true of all teams. Instead of letting it go, I argued that Philly fans seem to respond more elastically than fans of other cities.
Perhaps this is a good time to share my credentials. I grew up 20 minutes from the Philadelphia sports complex. I had full season tickets at the Vet during those years when announced attendance was around 13,000 and actual attendance appeared closer to 3,000. The section security guard would sit down and watch part of the game with us because there was nothing to guard. He would go in the dugout between innings and come back with bazooka gum and sunflower seeds, sometimes with autographs. Those were my favorite years of baseball – between 1995 and 2001 - and my hometown Phillies were godawfulterrible.
I understand that there are many types of fans in Philadelphia, as there are many types of fans everywhere. There are fair weather fans, die hard fans, and plenty who fit somewhere in between. I recognize that it’s disingenuous to say “I grew up a Phillies fan, so I can say what I want about them.” I admit, it smells a little bit like “I have a black friend so it’s okay that I’m about to say something racist.” But I’ve also lived in four major league cities and Philadelphia is quite noticeably different in its fandom.
In the previously referenced article, commenter TeddyWestside said:
Sure some people will “run away” until we have a contender, but those aren’t real fans. Those are the people that go to games because it’s the “thing to do.” EVERY franchise has fans like that, so don’t you act like we are the only ones…Sure, when the team underperforms I am not going to 20 games a year. I’ll still go to a handful, but I’ll watch EVERY other game at home. Same goes for the other fans. We won’t spend our hard earned money to go watch a team lose, but bet your *** we support from our couches and bars. So don’t act like we are frontrunners, because you are way off base.
No, I’m not Jimmy Rollins and I’m not accusing you of being a front runner. This is a perfectly rational thing to do. When I attended those games at the Vet, my parents were able to buy excellent seats for $12 apiece. Similar seats now cost over $100 apiece. It’s not financially practical to attend ballgames unless you derive a lot of utility (happiness) from attending. Winning and playoff contention are an important element of that utility for most people.
TeddyWestside’s comment does strike at the heart of the matter. From the team’s perspective, the only thing that matters is that fans are spending less of their discretionary income on the team. Teddy has identified himself as the common man’s fan. Assuming this is true, he has also identified that his spending on the Phillies has/will decline due to the team’s poor play. I assume he would agree that the more the team loses, the less he would spend. TW’s still spending some money on the team, but there are actual bandwagon fans who stop spending altogether. This hurts the team’s bottom line, and it’s part of the reason why I consider it plausible that their current offseason strategy is the best one available for their unique circumstances.
I wanted to test this a little more vigorously using attendance data. Unfortunately, the computer I have with me doesn’t have anything more advanced than OpenOffice Calc, so we’ll have to keep things basic. I gathered attendance data from Baseball Reference on every National League team dating back to 1996. I restricted it to NL teams because I had to do a fair amount of manual data entry, and I included the Astros but dropped the Expos/Nationals. I then limited the list to seasons where attendance dropped by at least 10 percent. That left me with 33 seasons. The Cubs and Cardinals did not have any seasons where attendance declined by 10 percent.
Before reviewing the results, let’s make the shortcomings clear. This is a very simplistic analysis that ignores many factors. Since the data is not prepared properly, we can’t use it to draw meaningful conclusions. What we can do is take the information and form hypotheses to be tested later. Another shortcoming is that I’ve used attendance as a proxy for revenue. And keep in mind, my arbitrary cutoff was 10 percent, which is a large drop in attendance. Some teams saw long term trends that didn’t eclipse the 10 percent threshold. Lastly, no effort was spent in examining how quickly teams recover from bad seasons. In short, there are a lot of ways to slice and dice this data, but for the purpose of today, we’ll stick to a narrow focus.
As for the table headings, year is the year, team is the team, W’s Yr X is that year’s win total, W’s Yr X-1 is the previous season’s win total, and Atnd/gm is the attendance per game. I used per game attendance because the Phillies had one 84 home game season in the sample.
Year Team W’s Yr X-1 W’s Yr X Change in Wins Atnd/gm Yr Pct Change in Atnd Note
1997 Philadelphia Phillies 67 68 1 18403 -0.173
2000 Philadelphia Phillies 77 65 -12 19911 -0.116
2005 Philadelphia Phillies 86 88 2 32905 -0.180 New Park 2004
2013 Philadelphia Phillies 81 73 -8 37190 -0.155
2001 Atlanta Braves 95 88 -7 34858 -0.127
1998 Florida Marlins 92 54 -38 21363 -0.268
1999 Florida Marlins 54 64 10 17118 -0.199
2000 Florida Marlins 64 79 15 15041 -0.121
2013 Miami Marlins 69 62 -7 19584 -0.285 New Park 2012
2003 New York Mets 75 66 -9 26757 -0.227
2009 New York Mets 89 70 -19 39118 -0.216 New Park 2009
2010 New York Mets 70 79 9 31602 -0.192 New Park 2009
2002 Houston Astros 93 84 -9 31078 -0.133 New Park 2002
2009 Houston Astros 86 74 -12 31124 -0.104
2011 Houston Astros 76 56 -20 25519 -0.113
2012 Houston Astros 56 55 -1 19849 -0.222
2001 Cincinnati Reds 85 66 -19 23207 -0.262
2005 Cincinnati Reds 76 73 -3 23696 -0.161
2009 Cincinnati Reds 74 78 4 21579 -0.151
2002 Milwaukee Brewers 68 56 -12 24311 -0.299
2013 Milwaukee Brewers 83 74 -9 31248 -0.106
2002 Pittsburgh Pirates 62 72 10 22312 -0.267 New Park 2001
1999 Arizona Diamondbacks 65 100 35 37280 -0.164 2nd Yr of Franchise
2003 Arizona Diamondbacks 98 84 -14 34636 -0.123
2004 Arizona Diamondbacks 84 51 -33 31106 -0.102
2005 Arizona Diamondbacks 51 77 26 25425 -0.183
2009 Arizona Diamondbacks 81 70 -11 26281 -0.152
2002 Colorado Rockies 73 73 33800 -0.135
2005 Colorado Rockies 68 67 -1 23634 -0.181
2011 Los Angeles Dodgers 80 82 2 36236 -0.176
2008 San Diego Padres 89 63 -26 29970 -0.130
2009 San Diego Padres 63 75 12 23699 -0.209
2008 San Francisco Giants 71 72 1 35356 -0.112
The table is sortable, I left it sorted by team by year as the default. From this view, I’m mainly interested in the teams with multi-season drops in attendance, namely the Marlins, Mets, Astros, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Their experiences share some common characteristics.
After winning the World Series in 1997, the Marlins held a fire sale and lost over 100 games in 1998. Attendance fell precipitately that season. The team then improved it’s record by 10 games but saw a further drop in attendance. They only won 64 games, so that’s understandable. The next season, they won 79 games, yet still hemorrhaged fans. Our research on win curves and the link between winning and revenue suggests that they should have seen increased revenue as they moved from 54 to 79 wins over two seasons. With what we actually observed, they probably actually earned less revenue season to season.
Despite our assumptions about win curves and dollars per win, this isn’t a counter intuitive finding. The Marlins telegraphed their bad hand by conducting a fire sale, but most teams try to decline more quietly, thus milking a few extra dollars out of the fan base. It can take time for the common fan to realize that Ryan Howard isn’t a franchise cornerstone. Around here, we’ve known that for years, but there are still a ton of fans who are only just beginning to suspect.
The Mets are a weird one because they really screwed up with their new park. They opened their doors in teeth of the housing crisis, overpriced their seats, and were embroiled in the Bernie Madoff fiasco. The team did see a sharp performance decline, but the drop in attendance began due to other factors.
The Astros of the late 2000′s had a lot in common with today’s Phillies. They’re both formerly strong rosters who hung onto their core too long and began to decline. The Astros finally bit the bullet and went for the full rebuild. Attendance plummeted the first two seasons of the rebuild as the team dropped from 76 to 56 to 55 wins. Attendance between 2012 and 2013 was stable, indicating that the team has hit a trough. The Phillies already saw a sharp decline in attendance when dropping from 81 to 73 wins. A full rebuild could probably bring them to wherever their trough is within a couple seasons. Getting back out could be a problem.
The Diamondbacks story looks similar to the Marlins. Attendance dropped after winning the World Series. The team was actually decent in that first season, but then fell apart to win only 51 games. The following season, they won 26 more games but still lost droves of fans.
The Padres are another weird one. Ownership issues coincided with the team’s collapse which likely exacerbated the decline in attendance. Their attendance did jump about 3,000 fans per game with their 90 win season in 2010 and hasn’t moved since then despite three straight losing efforts.
Keeping in mind that a firm conclusion should not be reached with this data, there is some evidence that the decision to engage in a full rebuild could affect team finances for many seasons. Since the Phillies are locked into most of their core through the 2016 and 2017 seasons, it might be financially premature to begin a rebuild. If attendance declined to around 19,000 per game, like with the Astros, the Phillies could have trouble meeting payroll.
Some might suggest that they trade their pricey contracts, but that might not be an option. Cole Hamels may return a decent prospect from a rich team like the Dodgers, but what other expensive player could return an asset in trade? To trade Howard, Papelbon, or even Lee, the Phillies would need to take on extra salary. We can probably assume that attendance would take a nose dive if the Phillies waved the white flag by trading away their aging stars. If they have to take on extra salary in the process, they may end up fielding an Astros-style roster of minimum salary players, but with three times that cost in payments to other teams.
Businesses will often attempt to maximize revenue in the short run and worry about profit later. A full rebuild effectively minimizes revenue. For that reason alone, the Phillies might find it more financially prudent to rebuild the slow way. A few first overall picks might help speed up the rebuild process, but Philadelphia has experienced first hand that it’s no guarantee. After this analysis, I’m still inclined to say that the Phillies might be doing the right thing. Who knows. I am fairly confident in saying that rebuilding is not a one-size-fits-all activity, and we should stop assuming otherwise.
The fans in Philadelphia simply don’t have patience for losers.
Commenters rightly pointed out that this is true of all teams. Instead of letting it go, I argued that Philly fans seem to respond more elastically than fans of other cities.
Perhaps this is a good time to share my credentials. I grew up 20 minutes from the Philadelphia sports complex. I had full season tickets at the Vet during those years when announced attendance was around 13,000 and actual attendance appeared closer to 3,000. The section security guard would sit down and watch part of the game with us because there was nothing to guard. He would go in the dugout between innings and come back with bazooka gum and sunflower seeds, sometimes with autographs. Those were my favorite years of baseball – between 1995 and 2001 - and my hometown Phillies were godawfulterrible.
I understand that there are many types of fans in Philadelphia, as there are many types of fans everywhere. There are fair weather fans, die hard fans, and plenty who fit somewhere in between. I recognize that it’s disingenuous to say “I grew up a Phillies fan, so I can say what I want about them.” I admit, it smells a little bit like “I have a black friend so it’s okay that I’m about to say something racist.” But I’ve also lived in four major league cities and Philadelphia is quite noticeably different in its fandom.
In the previously referenced article, commenter TeddyWestside said:
Sure some people will “run away” until we have a contender, but those aren’t real fans. Those are the people that go to games because it’s the “thing to do.” EVERY franchise has fans like that, so don’t you act like we are the only ones…Sure, when the team underperforms I am not going to 20 games a year. I’ll still go to a handful, but I’ll watch EVERY other game at home. Same goes for the other fans. We won’t spend our hard earned money to go watch a team lose, but bet your *** we support from our couches and bars. So don’t act like we are frontrunners, because you are way off base.
No, I’m not Jimmy Rollins and I’m not accusing you of being a front runner. This is a perfectly rational thing to do. When I attended those games at the Vet, my parents were able to buy excellent seats for $12 apiece. Similar seats now cost over $100 apiece. It’s not financially practical to attend ballgames unless you derive a lot of utility (happiness) from attending. Winning and playoff contention are an important element of that utility for most people.
TeddyWestside’s comment does strike at the heart of the matter. From the team’s perspective, the only thing that matters is that fans are spending less of their discretionary income on the team. Teddy has identified himself as the common man’s fan. Assuming this is true, he has also identified that his spending on the Phillies has/will decline due to the team’s poor play. I assume he would agree that the more the team loses, the less he would spend. TW’s still spending some money on the team, but there are actual bandwagon fans who stop spending altogether. This hurts the team’s bottom line, and it’s part of the reason why I consider it plausible that their current offseason strategy is the best one available for their unique circumstances.
I wanted to test this a little more vigorously using attendance data. Unfortunately, the computer I have with me doesn’t have anything more advanced than OpenOffice Calc, so we’ll have to keep things basic. I gathered attendance data from Baseball Reference on every National League team dating back to 1996. I restricted it to NL teams because I had to do a fair amount of manual data entry, and I included the Astros but dropped the Expos/Nationals. I then limited the list to seasons where attendance dropped by at least 10 percent. That left me with 33 seasons. The Cubs and Cardinals did not have any seasons where attendance declined by 10 percent.
Before reviewing the results, let’s make the shortcomings clear. This is a very simplistic analysis that ignores many factors. Since the data is not prepared properly, we can’t use it to draw meaningful conclusions. What we can do is take the information and form hypotheses to be tested later. Another shortcoming is that I’ve used attendance as a proxy for revenue. And keep in mind, my arbitrary cutoff was 10 percent, which is a large drop in attendance. Some teams saw long term trends that didn’t eclipse the 10 percent threshold. Lastly, no effort was spent in examining how quickly teams recover from bad seasons. In short, there are a lot of ways to slice and dice this data, but for the purpose of today, we’ll stick to a narrow focus.
As for the table headings, year is the year, team is the team, W’s Yr X is that year’s win total, W’s Yr X-1 is the previous season’s win total, and Atnd/gm is the attendance per game. I used per game attendance because the Phillies had one 84 home game season in the sample.
Year Team W’s Yr X-1 W’s Yr X Change in Wins Atnd/gm Yr Pct Change in Atnd Note
1997 Philadelphia Phillies 67 68 1 18403 -0.173
2000 Philadelphia Phillies 77 65 -12 19911 -0.116
2005 Philadelphia Phillies 86 88 2 32905 -0.180 New Park 2004
2013 Philadelphia Phillies 81 73 -8 37190 -0.155
2001 Atlanta Braves 95 88 -7 34858 -0.127
1998 Florida Marlins 92 54 -38 21363 -0.268
1999 Florida Marlins 54 64 10 17118 -0.199
2000 Florida Marlins 64 79 15 15041 -0.121
2013 Miami Marlins 69 62 -7 19584 -0.285 New Park 2012
2003 New York Mets 75 66 -9 26757 -0.227
2009 New York Mets 89 70 -19 39118 -0.216 New Park 2009
2010 New York Mets 70 79 9 31602 -0.192 New Park 2009
2002 Houston Astros 93 84 -9 31078 -0.133 New Park 2002
2009 Houston Astros 86 74 -12 31124 -0.104
2011 Houston Astros 76 56 -20 25519 -0.113
2012 Houston Astros 56 55 -1 19849 -0.222
2001 Cincinnati Reds 85 66 -19 23207 -0.262
2005 Cincinnati Reds 76 73 -3 23696 -0.161
2009 Cincinnati Reds 74 78 4 21579 -0.151
2002 Milwaukee Brewers 68 56 -12 24311 -0.299
2013 Milwaukee Brewers 83 74 -9 31248 -0.106
2002 Pittsburgh Pirates 62 72 10 22312 -0.267 New Park 2001
1999 Arizona Diamondbacks 65 100 35 37280 -0.164 2nd Yr of Franchise
2003 Arizona Diamondbacks 98 84 -14 34636 -0.123
2004 Arizona Diamondbacks 84 51 -33 31106 -0.102
2005 Arizona Diamondbacks 51 77 26 25425 -0.183
2009 Arizona Diamondbacks 81 70 -11 26281 -0.152
2002 Colorado Rockies 73 73 33800 -0.135
2005 Colorado Rockies 68 67 -1 23634 -0.181
2011 Los Angeles Dodgers 80 82 2 36236 -0.176
2008 San Diego Padres 89 63 -26 29970 -0.130
2009 San Diego Padres 63 75 12 23699 -0.209
2008 San Francisco Giants 71 72 1 35356 -0.112
The table is sortable, I left it sorted by team by year as the default. From this view, I’m mainly interested in the teams with multi-season drops in attendance, namely the Marlins, Mets, Astros, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Their experiences share some common characteristics.
After winning the World Series in 1997, the Marlins held a fire sale and lost over 100 games in 1998. Attendance fell precipitately that season. The team then improved it’s record by 10 games but saw a further drop in attendance. They only won 64 games, so that’s understandable. The next season, they won 79 games, yet still hemorrhaged fans. Our research on win curves and the link between winning and revenue suggests that they should have seen increased revenue as they moved from 54 to 79 wins over two seasons. With what we actually observed, they probably actually earned less revenue season to season.
Despite our assumptions about win curves and dollars per win, this isn’t a counter intuitive finding. The Marlins telegraphed their bad hand by conducting a fire sale, but most teams try to decline more quietly, thus milking a few extra dollars out of the fan base. It can take time for the common fan to realize that Ryan Howard isn’t a franchise cornerstone. Around here, we’ve known that for years, but there are still a ton of fans who are only just beginning to suspect.
The Mets are a weird one because they really screwed up with their new park. They opened their doors in teeth of the housing crisis, overpriced their seats, and were embroiled in the Bernie Madoff fiasco. The team did see a sharp performance decline, but the drop in attendance began due to other factors.
The Astros of the late 2000′s had a lot in common with today’s Phillies. They’re both formerly strong rosters who hung onto their core too long and began to decline. The Astros finally bit the bullet and went for the full rebuild. Attendance plummeted the first two seasons of the rebuild as the team dropped from 76 to 56 to 55 wins. Attendance between 2012 and 2013 was stable, indicating that the team has hit a trough. The Phillies already saw a sharp decline in attendance when dropping from 81 to 73 wins. A full rebuild could probably bring them to wherever their trough is within a couple seasons. Getting back out could be a problem.
The Diamondbacks story looks similar to the Marlins. Attendance dropped after winning the World Series. The team was actually decent in that first season, but then fell apart to win only 51 games. The following season, they won 26 more games but still lost droves of fans.
The Padres are another weird one. Ownership issues coincided with the team’s collapse which likely exacerbated the decline in attendance. Their attendance did jump about 3,000 fans per game with their 90 win season in 2010 and hasn’t moved since then despite three straight losing efforts.
Keeping in mind that a firm conclusion should not be reached with this data, there is some evidence that the decision to engage in a full rebuild could affect team finances for many seasons. Since the Phillies are locked into most of their core through the 2016 and 2017 seasons, it might be financially premature to begin a rebuild. If attendance declined to around 19,000 per game, like with the Astros, the Phillies could have trouble meeting payroll.
Some might suggest that they trade their pricey contracts, but that might not be an option. Cole Hamels may return a decent prospect from a rich team like the Dodgers, but what other expensive player could return an asset in trade? To trade Howard, Papelbon, or even Lee, the Phillies would need to take on extra salary. We can probably assume that attendance would take a nose dive if the Phillies waved the white flag by trading away their aging stars. If they have to take on extra salary in the process, they may end up fielding an Astros-style roster of minimum salary players, but with three times that cost in payments to other teams.
Businesses will often attempt to maximize revenue in the short run and worry about profit later. A full rebuild effectively minimizes revenue. For that reason alone, the Phillies might find it more financially prudent to rebuild the slow way. A few first overall picks might help speed up the rebuild process, but Philadelphia has experienced first hand that it’s no guarantee. After this analysis, I’m still inclined to say that the Phillies might be doing the right thing. Who knows. I am fairly confident in saying that rebuilding is not a one-size-fits-all activity, and we should stop assuming otherwise.
Spending $50 Million on Two Very Different Pitchers.
Early in the off-season, Ricky Nolasco signed with the Minnesota Twins for $49 million over four years. Over the weekend, Matt Garza signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for $50 million over four years. While these contracts are nearly identical, the two pitchers could hardly be more different.
Over the last three seasons, Nolasco has averaged 199 innings per year, while Garza’s averaged just 152 innings per year. Nolasco has been reliably durable, avoiding the disabled list entirely for each of the last three seasons, while Garza has had three separate stints on the DL since the start of the 2011 season. Nolasco’s strongest selling point is his health track record; health is Garza’s weak point.
Nolasco has his own weak points, however. He’s consistently underperformed his FIP for nearly his entire career, as his 108 ERA-/92 FIP- is the largest spread of any active starting pitcher in baseball at the moment. While Nolasco’s BB/K/HR rates are all solid, he has a long history of giving up hits on balls in play and failing to strand runners, so his run prevention has never matched up with the estimators. Garza, on the other hand, has a below average BABIP for his career, and has a slightly positive ERA/FIP differential, though that hasn’t held true over the last three years.
On a per-innings basis, Garza is pretty clearly the better pitcher, but Nolasco has traditionally given his teams more innings. The choice between the two could be generally described as the age-old trade-off between quality and quantity. And the market has apparently determined that the difference in durability exactly offsets Garza’s difference in per-innings performance, as they signed the same basic contract in the same off-season with neither having free agent compensation attached.
That brings up the obvious question: is the market right?
Let’s start with what we know about predicting pitcher injuries. Jeff Zimmermann has done a lot of work on disabled list forecasts, and last year, the model he created to forecast DL stints did astonishingly well. If you look at the data he’s produced for 2014 DL predictions, you’ll see that, on average, starting pitchers are forecast to have a 38% chance of landing on the disabled list, with the spread ranging from roughly 30% — guys like Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Leake — up to around 50% — Tim Hudson, Brandon McCarthy, and yes, Matt Garza — at the higher end of things. Bartolo Colon stands out as something of an outlier, getting a 64% chance of landing on the DL, but the range is mostly 30%-50%, as 113 of the 127 pitchers fall within that span.
Zimmermann’s model definitely labels Garza as high-risk and Nolasco as low-risk, as Garza is forecast for a 51% chance of landing on the DL at some point in 2014, while Nolasco is just at 34%. This is a big gap, certainly, but what does it translate into in terms of expected number of starts going forward? Well, pulling Zimmermann’s data for disabled list stints by pitchers in 2013, I found that the average DL stint for a hurler last year was 69 days, though that is significantly inflated by pitchers who missed the entire season after recovering from surgery. The median is probably a better number to use here, since most pitchers who land on the DL don’t end up having season-ending surgery, so we’ll use the 51 day median instead of the 69 day average.
Taking Zimmermann’s DL forecast percentages and applying them to the 51 day median length of a DL stint for a pitcher, we’d find that his model would suggest Garza may be in line for something like 26 days on the DL next year. That’s basically a whole month of the season, and would cost Garza roughly five starts, plus some diminished performance on either side of the DL stay, so maybe the real cost is a loss of six or seven starts. That’s 20% of the season, and with that kind of risk, it’s easy to see why teams weren’t exactly bidding through the roof to land Garza.
However, Nolasco is still a pitcher, and even previously durable pitchers get injured too, so the difference isn’t five extra starts for Nolasco. The model projected him for a 34% chance of landing on the DL, after all, so applying the median DL stint of 51 days, it would suggest 17 DL days for Nolasco in 2014. Instead of a 26 day difference, we’re actually looking at a nine day difference in DL forecasts, or essentially two starts of the season.
Two extra starts. That’s roughly 12 extra innings. Even if you used the average DL stint instead of the median (to account for the higher chance of Garza actually needing surgery and missing the whole year), you’re still only looking at a 12 day DL difference, which is still only 2-3 extra starts over the course of the year. We’re talking about a forecast health difference of less than 20 innings, based on Zimmermann’s model at least.
If we’re really only looking at a 20 inning difference between a very high risk and a very low risk starting pitcher, then it seems that perhaps the price discount that injury prone starting pitchers are taking might perhaps be too high. After all, over 160 innings at something close to their career norms, Garza should be expected to allow roughly 70 runs, while Nolasco would be expected to give up something closer to 85 runs in 180 innings. Getting 20 extra innings and giving up 15 additional runs in the process isn’t so beneficial to winning games; any generic Triple-A arm can make up 20 innings while giving up fewer than 15 runs in the process.
Of course, these numbers are all estimates, and teams have far better access to medical data than we do. It is probably telling that a bunch of teams who have had Matt Garza aren’t interested in having him back, and they’re the ones who know the most about the red flags that doctors have raised. However, projecting future health is still mostly guesswork, and it seems like it’s possible that teams are putting too much of an emphasis on formerly durable pitchers and not enough on the quality of the pitcher when he is on the mound.
Over the last three seasons, Nolasco has averaged 199 innings per year, while Garza’s averaged just 152 innings per year. Nolasco has been reliably durable, avoiding the disabled list entirely for each of the last three seasons, while Garza has had three separate stints on the DL since the start of the 2011 season. Nolasco’s strongest selling point is his health track record; health is Garza’s weak point.
Nolasco has his own weak points, however. He’s consistently underperformed his FIP for nearly his entire career, as his 108 ERA-/92 FIP- is the largest spread of any active starting pitcher in baseball at the moment. While Nolasco’s BB/K/HR rates are all solid, he has a long history of giving up hits on balls in play and failing to strand runners, so his run prevention has never matched up with the estimators. Garza, on the other hand, has a below average BABIP for his career, and has a slightly positive ERA/FIP differential, though that hasn’t held true over the last three years.
On a per-innings basis, Garza is pretty clearly the better pitcher, but Nolasco has traditionally given his teams more innings. The choice between the two could be generally described as the age-old trade-off between quality and quantity. And the market has apparently determined that the difference in durability exactly offsets Garza’s difference in per-innings performance, as they signed the same basic contract in the same off-season with neither having free agent compensation attached.
That brings up the obvious question: is the market right?
Let’s start with what we know about predicting pitcher injuries. Jeff Zimmermann has done a lot of work on disabled list forecasts, and last year, the model he created to forecast DL stints did astonishingly well. If you look at the data he’s produced for 2014 DL predictions, you’ll see that, on average, starting pitchers are forecast to have a 38% chance of landing on the disabled list, with the spread ranging from roughly 30% — guys like Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Leake — up to around 50% — Tim Hudson, Brandon McCarthy, and yes, Matt Garza — at the higher end of things. Bartolo Colon stands out as something of an outlier, getting a 64% chance of landing on the DL, but the range is mostly 30%-50%, as 113 of the 127 pitchers fall within that span.
Zimmermann’s model definitely labels Garza as high-risk and Nolasco as low-risk, as Garza is forecast for a 51% chance of landing on the DL at some point in 2014, while Nolasco is just at 34%. This is a big gap, certainly, but what does it translate into in terms of expected number of starts going forward? Well, pulling Zimmermann’s data for disabled list stints by pitchers in 2013, I found that the average DL stint for a hurler last year was 69 days, though that is significantly inflated by pitchers who missed the entire season after recovering from surgery. The median is probably a better number to use here, since most pitchers who land on the DL don’t end up having season-ending surgery, so we’ll use the 51 day median instead of the 69 day average.
Taking Zimmermann’s DL forecast percentages and applying them to the 51 day median length of a DL stint for a pitcher, we’d find that his model would suggest Garza may be in line for something like 26 days on the DL next year. That’s basically a whole month of the season, and would cost Garza roughly five starts, plus some diminished performance on either side of the DL stay, so maybe the real cost is a loss of six or seven starts. That’s 20% of the season, and with that kind of risk, it’s easy to see why teams weren’t exactly bidding through the roof to land Garza.
However, Nolasco is still a pitcher, and even previously durable pitchers get injured too, so the difference isn’t five extra starts for Nolasco. The model projected him for a 34% chance of landing on the DL, after all, so applying the median DL stint of 51 days, it would suggest 17 DL days for Nolasco in 2014. Instead of a 26 day difference, we’re actually looking at a nine day difference in DL forecasts, or essentially two starts of the season.
Two extra starts. That’s roughly 12 extra innings. Even if you used the average DL stint instead of the median (to account for the higher chance of Garza actually needing surgery and missing the whole year), you’re still only looking at a 12 day DL difference, which is still only 2-3 extra starts over the course of the year. We’re talking about a forecast health difference of less than 20 innings, based on Zimmermann’s model at least.
If we’re really only looking at a 20 inning difference between a very high risk and a very low risk starting pitcher, then it seems that perhaps the price discount that injury prone starting pitchers are taking might perhaps be too high. After all, over 160 innings at something close to their career norms, Garza should be expected to allow roughly 70 runs, while Nolasco would be expected to give up something closer to 85 runs in 180 innings. Getting 20 extra innings and giving up 15 additional runs in the process isn’t so beneficial to winning games; any generic Triple-A arm can make up 20 innings while giving up fewer than 15 runs in the process.
Of course, these numbers are all estimates, and teams have far better access to medical data than we do. It is probably telling that a bunch of teams who have had Matt Garza aren’t interested in having him back, and they’re the ones who know the most about the red flags that doctors have raised. However, projecting future health is still mostly guesswork, and it seems like it’s possible that teams are putting too much of an emphasis on formerly durable pitchers and not enough on the quality of the pitcher when he is on the mound.
What If Mike Trout Had Average Speed?
Mike Trout is a dude. The total package. He combines the abilities to hit for average and power and play impact defense at a premium position, with top of the charts speed that he uses both prolifically and efficiently. While metrics now exist to measure the effect of speed on player defense and baserunning, it is less simple to measure how speed contributes to one’s batting line. Let’s attempt to separate the impact of Trout’s speed on his slash line, and then do the same with a very different player with whom Trout is often compared, for MVP reasons.
Here is Trout’s 2013 performance by major batted ball types. (Popups are included in overall totals, but are not listed separately for purposes of this exercise.)
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Trout Mike FLY 138 31.29% 0.362 1.080 111 191
LD 107 24.26% 0.645 0.944 114 106
GB 174 39.46% 0.356 0.391 93 228
ALL BIP 0.410 0.711 178
The 3rd and 4th columns list AVG and SLG by BIP type, the 5th lists the frequency of each type relative to the MLB average, scaled to 100, and the 6th lists run value production by batted ball type, also relative to the MLB average, again scaled to 100. Trout’s strengths are numerous and obvious – he hits plenty of fly balls, many of them hit very hard, and lots of line drives too. His production on fly balls and ground balls are both about double the MLB average, thanks to his exceptional power/speed combination.
To determine how much his speed contributes to these figures, we must do both of the following:
1) Approximate how many extra hits his speed provided, and
2) Approximate how many additional total bases on existing hits his speed provided
The answer to the first point lies entirely within his population of ground balls. MLB hitters batted .237 and slugged .257 on ground balls in 2013. Trout, because of his speed, should be expected to exceed those marks, but based on his hard and soft ground ball rates, not nearly to the extent of the .356 AVG and .391 SLG he actually posted. Based solely upon the authority with which he hit the ball on the ground, Trout’s projected AVG-SLG line on grounders in 2013 would have been .267-.287. That means that Trout got approximately 16 more hits and 20 more total bases than he would have if he had league average speed.
Now let’s move on to the line drives and fly balls. Here we are not talking about adding to or subtracting from the hit total. Instead we are looking for the difference between the actual and projected spread of singles-doubles-triples within that batted ball population, based upon the relative authority with which the player being evaluated hits the ball. Trout’s isolated power on line drives is pretty much in line with what it should be, but the average hitter with this level of isolated power hit more than the single line drive homer that Trout hit in 2013. What the average player is accomplishing by hitting the ball out of the park, Trout is doing while keeping the ball inside it. Trout’s actual 1B-2B-3B line on liners was 43-21-4, the typical spread by a hitter with similar power would be 43-24-1 – that’s a difference of three total bases attributable to Trout’s speed. Essentially, three doubles turned into triples. Let’s do the same with fly balls. Trout’s actual 1B-2B-3B split on flyballs was 8-11-5. The typical split for an MLB hitter with similar projected isolated power on fly balls would be 9-14-1, resulting in a net difference of five total bases attributable to Trout’s speed.
Overall, we’ve come up with 16 additional hits and 28 additional total bases attributable to Mike Trout’s speed. Let’s look at what this does to his overall BIP batting statistics by category below.
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Trout Mike FLY 138 31.29% 0.362 1.043 111 183
LD 107 24.26% 0.645 0.916 114 103
GB 174 39.46% 0.267 0.287 93 126
ALL BIP 0.376 0.650 150
Trout’s overall slash line goes from .323-.432-.557 to .295-.409-.509 – still pretty darned good. It’s pretty handy, however, to be able to isolate the impact of his speed upon his raw numbers. This enables to separately age his pure batting ability and the speed component as the years go by. Trout is obviously a great hitter with or without his speed, but there are other speed-oriented players whose offensive value essentially disappears once you peel away the speed. Past and present BABIP overachievers like Ichiro Suzuki or Michael Bourn, among others, could be more accurately evaluated using such an approach.
As a point of reference, let’s do the same exercise for another great hitter, who just happens to be a slow baserunner. He also just happens to be Trout’s immediate neighbor in the MVP voting the last two years, Miguel Cabrera.
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Cabrera Miguel FLY 141 31.06% 0.475 1.475 110 347
LD 107 23.57% 0.672 0.836 111 100
GB 174 38.33% 0.283 0.289 90 136
ALL BIP 0.415 0.762 194
The fundamentals are actually quite comparable to Trout’s. Their fly ball and line drive frequency are almost identical, while Cabrera’s fly ball production is far superior, mainly because his ability to pull the ball in the air is far advanced compared to his younger counterpart. (Pulling the baseball in general will be examined in greater detail in an upcoming post.) Cabrera’s actual ground ball production is much lower than Trout’s, at least before we adjust for speed.
Cabrera’s hard and soft grounder marks are both far superior to Trout’s, and just about anyone else’s for that matter. So much so that Cabrera’s projected AVG-SLG on grounders would be .337-.368, meaning that his lack of speed cost him nine hits and 13 total bases on ground balls alone in 2013. Cabrera’s actual isolated power on line drives is a relatively meager .164, a little more than half of Trout’s actual mark. This makes little sense, as Cabrera impacts the baseball even more than Trout does. Cabrera’s actual 1B-2B-3B split on liners was 63-13-0; the typical spread for a hitter with similar power would be 48-27-1, for a whopping loss of 16 total bases attributable to Cabrera’s lack of speed. As for fly balls, Cabrera had an actual 1B-2B-3B split of 11-13-1, while a hitter with similar projected isolated power would have a 6-18-1 spread, a loss of five total bases attributable to his lack of speed. As great as he was and is, upward adjustment for those bases lost turns him into an even greater hitter – from a .348-.442-.636 line into a .364-.456-.697 Hornsby-esque monster. His adjusted BIP numbers appear below.
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Cabrera Miguel FLY 141 31.06% 0.475 1.511 110 358
LD 107 23.57% 0.672 0.974 111 114
GB 174 38.33% 0.337 0.368 90 203
ALL BIP 0.434 0.836 223
This is an imperfect but advantageous method to approximate the effects of player speed on their slash lines. My gut, and the scout in me surmises that it might be overstating the ground ball impact, and understating the line drive/fly ball impact, while coming pretty close overall. The essence of player evaluation is peeling back as many layers as possible to identify the true player within, and this is just another small step toward that end.
Here is Trout’s 2013 performance by major batted ball types. (Popups are included in overall totals, but are not listed separately for purposes of this exercise.)
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Trout Mike FLY 138 31.29% 0.362 1.080 111 191
LD 107 24.26% 0.645 0.944 114 106
GB 174 39.46% 0.356 0.391 93 228
ALL BIP 0.410 0.711 178
The 3rd and 4th columns list AVG and SLG by BIP type, the 5th lists the frequency of each type relative to the MLB average, scaled to 100, and the 6th lists run value production by batted ball type, also relative to the MLB average, again scaled to 100. Trout’s strengths are numerous and obvious – he hits plenty of fly balls, many of them hit very hard, and lots of line drives too. His production on fly balls and ground balls are both about double the MLB average, thanks to his exceptional power/speed combination.
To determine how much his speed contributes to these figures, we must do both of the following:
1) Approximate how many extra hits his speed provided, and
2) Approximate how many additional total bases on existing hits his speed provided
The answer to the first point lies entirely within his population of ground balls. MLB hitters batted .237 and slugged .257 on ground balls in 2013. Trout, because of his speed, should be expected to exceed those marks, but based on his hard and soft ground ball rates, not nearly to the extent of the .356 AVG and .391 SLG he actually posted. Based solely upon the authority with which he hit the ball on the ground, Trout’s projected AVG-SLG line on grounders in 2013 would have been .267-.287. That means that Trout got approximately 16 more hits and 20 more total bases than he would have if he had league average speed.
Now let’s move on to the line drives and fly balls. Here we are not talking about adding to or subtracting from the hit total. Instead we are looking for the difference between the actual and projected spread of singles-doubles-triples within that batted ball population, based upon the relative authority with which the player being evaluated hits the ball. Trout’s isolated power on line drives is pretty much in line with what it should be, but the average hitter with this level of isolated power hit more than the single line drive homer that Trout hit in 2013. What the average player is accomplishing by hitting the ball out of the park, Trout is doing while keeping the ball inside it. Trout’s actual 1B-2B-3B line on liners was 43-21-4, the typical spread by a hitter with similar power would be 43-24-1 – that’s a difference of three total bases attributable to Trout’s speed. Essentially, three doubles turned into triples. Let’s do the same with fly balls. Trout’s actual 1B-2B-3B split on flyballs was 8-11-5. The typical split for an MLB hitter with similar projected isolated power on fly balls would be 9-14-1, resulting in a net difference of five total bases attributable to Trout’s speed.
Overall, we’ve come up with 16 additional hits and 28 additional total bases attributable to Mike Trout’s speed. Let’s look at what this does to his overall BIP batting statistics by category below.
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Trout Mike FLY 138 31.29% 0.362 1.043 111 183
LD 107 24.26% 0.645 0.916 114 103
GB 174 39.46% 0.267 0.287 93 126
ALL BIP 0.376 0.650 150
Trout’s overall slash line goes from .323-.432-.557 to .295-.409-.509 – still pretty darned good. It’s pretty handy, however, to be able to isolate the impact of his speed upon his raw numbers. This enables to separately age his pure batting ability and the speed component as the years go by. Trout is obviously a great hitter with or without his speed, but there are other speed-oriented players whose offensive value essentially disappears once you peel away the speed. Past and present BABIP overachievers like Ichiro Suzuki or Michael Bourn, among others, could be more accurately evaluated using such an approach.
As a point of reference, let’s do the same exercise for another great hitter, who just happens to be a slow baserunner. He also just happens to be Trout’s immediate neighbor in the MVP voting the last two years, Miguel Cabrera.
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Cabrera Miguel FLY 141 31.06% 0.475 1.475 110 347
LD 107 23.57% 0.672 0.836 111 100
GB 174 38.33% 0.283 0.289 90 136
ALL BIP 0.415 0.762 194
The fundamentals are actually quite comparable to Trout’s. Their fly ball and line drive frequency are almost identical, while Cabrera’s fly ball production is far superior, mainly because his ability to pull the ball in the air is far advanced compared to his younger counterpart. (Pulling the baseball in general will be examined in greater detail in an upcoming post.) Cabrera’s actual ground ball production is much lower than Trout’s, at least before we adjust for speed.
Cabrera’s hard and soft grounder marks are both far superior to Trout’s, and just about anyone else’s for that matter. So much so that Cabrera’s projected AVG-SLG on grounders would be .337-.368, meaning that his lack of speed cost him nine hits and 13 total bases on ground balls alone in 2013. Cabrera’s actual isolated power on line drives is a relatively meager .164, a little more than half of Trout’s actual mark. This makes little sense, as Cabrera impacts the baseball even more than Trout does. Cabrera’s actual 1B-2B-3B split on liners was 63-13-0; the typical spread for a hitter with similar power would be 48-27-1, for a whopping loss of 16 total bases attributable to Cabrera’s lack of speed. As for fly balls, Cabrera had an actual 1B-2B-3B split of 11-13-1, while a hitter with similar projected isolated power would have a 6-18-1 spread, a loss of five total bases attributable to his lack of speed. As great as he was and is, upward adjustment for those bases lost turns him into an even greater hitter – from a .348-.442-.636 line into a .364-.456-.697 Hornsby-esque monster. His adjusted BIP numbers appear below.
TYPE # % AVG SLG FREQ PROD
Cabrera Miguel FLY 141 31.06% 0.475 1.511 110 358
LD 107 23.57% 0.672 0.974 111 114
GB 174 38.33% 0.337 0.368 90 203
ALL BIP 0.434 0.836 223
This is an imperfect but advantageous method to approximate the effects of player speed on their slash lines. My gut, and the scout in me surmises that it might be overstating the ground ball impact, and understating the line drive/fly ball impact, while coming pretty close overall. The essence of player evaluation is peeling back as many layers as possible to identify the true player within, and this is just another small step toward that end.
Doing More With Less.
A part of the allure of Greg Maddux was how he was able to post an above-league average K/9 during the prime years of his career despite not having the velocity of many of his peers. He was the epitome of sacrificing velocity for movement and location in a time when pitchers were observed peeking over their shoulder to the scoreboard to see what they hit on the in-park radar gun.
Thomas Boswell encapsulated Maddux rather well in repeating an anecdote from a time the two spent together in the early 90′s:
One day I sat a dozen feet behind Maddux’s catcher as three Braves pitchers, all in a row, did their throwing sessions side-by-side. Lefty Steve Avery made his catcher’s glove explode with noise from his 95-mph fastball. His curve looked like it broke a foot-and-a-half. He was terrifying. Yet I could barely tell the difference between Greg’s pitches. Was that a slider, a changeup, a two-seam or four-seam fastball? Maddux certainly looked better than most college pitchers, but not much. Nothing was scary.
Afterward, I asked him how it went, how he felt, everything except “Is your arm okay?” He picked up the tone. With a cocked grin, like a Mad Dog whose table scrap doesn’t taste quite right, he said, “That’s all I got.”
Maddux, while frustrating batters and fascinating fans, made it cool again to be a pitcher that got results without relying upon velocity. In a time when teams are consistently on the hunt for pitching, those who find pitchers who can miss bats with sequencing, location, and deception
The league-wide strikeout percentage (K%) was 19.8% in 2013 while the average fastball velocity (FBv) was 91.7 mph. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of the pitches thrown, with an overall contact rate of 87.0% and a Z-Contact% of 79.5%. Pitchers who are toughest on batters tend to strike them out frequently by generating frequent swings and misses and limiting both overall contact as well as contact within the strike zone. There were several examples of pitchers (min 100 IP) in 2013 that were able to achieve above-average results in each area despite a FBv
Thomas Boswell encapsulated Maddux rather well in repeating an anecdote from a time the two spent together in the early 90′s:
One day I sat a dozen feet behind Maddux’s catcher as three Braves pitchers, all in a row, did their throwing sessions side-by-side. Lefty Steve Avery made his catcher’s glove explode with noise from his 95-mph fastball. His curve looked like it broke a foot-and-a-half. He was terrifying. Yet I could barely tell the difference between Greg’s pitches. Was that a slider, a changeup, a two-seam or four-seam fastball? Maddux certainly looked better than most college pitchers, but not much. Nothing was scary.
Afterward, I asked him how it went, how he felt, everything except “Is your arm okay?” He picked up the tone. With a cocked grin, like a Mad Dog whose table scrap doesn’t taste quite right, he said, “That’s all I got.”
Maddux, while frustrating batters and fascinating fans, made it cool again to be a pitcher that got results without relying upon velocity. In a time when teams are consistently on the hunt for pitching, those who find pitchers who can miss bats with sequencing, location, and deception
The league-wide strikeout percentage (K%) was 19.8% in 2013 while the average fastball velocity (FBv) was 91.7 mph. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of the pitches thrown, with an overall contact rate of 87.0% and a Z-Contact% of 79.5%. Pitchers who are toughest on batters tend to strike them out frequently by generating frequent swings and misses and limiting both overall contact as well as contact within the strike zone. There were several examples of pitchers (min 100 IP) in 2013 that were able to achieve above-average results in each area despite a FBv
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Addison Russell #3 on the prospect list
Start him at SS next year and put Jed Lowrie at 2B
Start him at SS next year and put Jed Lowrie at 2B
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Jed will likely be gone next year.
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Sad, man. I can't imagine never watching the A's win the World Series.
mr marcus
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I chuckled but not in a malicious way......just sucks to live that long and not experience that for an obvious die hard fan
jewbacca
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As a Houstionian, I was 4 and 5 when the Rockets went back to back. I was 15 when the Astros got swept in the World Series. In a decade plus, the Texans haven't even made it to an AFC championship game.
Those championship teams and moments don't have very often for most cities, so you really have to enjoy it when it happens.
The feelings when the Texans clinched their first AFC south title and when the Astros clinched a WS birth can't even be described.
Those championship teams and moments don't have very often for most cities, so you really have to enjoy it when it happens.
The feelings when the Texans clinched their first AFC south title and when the Astros clinched a WS birth can't even be described.
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Sad, man. I can't imagine never watching the A's win the World Series.
I was born in 1991:
-The A's have never made a world series in my life
-The Raiders have made 1 super bowl, barely showed up
-The Warriors have made playoffs twice.
|I
jumpmanfromdabay
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I am very lucky to have seen the Giants in the 2002, 2010 & 2012 World Series
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Cubs ascendant 
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