2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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Ox.
formerly oxpenguin
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i need a champions fitted hat but the WS hat will do
these past several days have been rough
too early to be hyped on the lakers and ducks and my boys keep making me look bad
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Pro: One more. Are Buxton and Sano the real deals?
They're both going to be studs.
Sano reminds me of a Reynolds who doesn't strike out. Best thing they could have done for him was move him to 3rd.
Buxton is being move aggressively, which I always like. Probably be in AA next year.
Top 50 MLB free agents.
Sano reminds me of a Reynolds who doesn't strike out. Best thing they could have done for him was move him to 3rd.
Buxton is being move aggressively, which I always like. Probably be in AA next year.
Top 50 MLB free agents.
Major league teams have more money than ever to spend on players, so I'm expecting the recent trend of salary inflation to continue this offseason even without many superstars available as free agents. That's a good thing for many players on my list of the top 50 free agents available, because this year's free-agent class has a lot of impact in the top 10 or so names, but after that, the crop becomes pretty sparse.
This isn't surprising, given how many players sign long-term extensions to stay with their current teams. Hunter Pence, who would have been in the top 10, re-signed with San Francisco right at the end of the season, taking another impact guy off the market before he even reached it. So beyond the top of the list, you see a lot of fringe regulars and back-end starters. There's also the occasional upside play on a guy who has been injured or is coming off a year below his career norms.
With these rankings, I try to give a rough idea of the offer I'd be comfortable making to each player, assuming I were the general manager of a contending team (or would-be contending team) and operating at or above the median payroll level.
Estimating the actual dollar value of a player to any specific team is nearly impossible, because we don't know what the marginal revenue product of a win is for each club -- and that number can change for a team from season to season, or even within a season, if it's much better or worse than expected. (For example, the marginal revenue product of one win, meaning the additional revenues generated by one more victory, for the Pirates likely went up as their 2013 season went on and it became clearer that they were a playoff team with a shot at the division title.)
My numbers are not predictions, and they often will fall short of actual market values, due to the "winner's curse" phenomenon, where the winner of an auction for a good of uncertain value is the bidder whose internal estimates of that value are the highest (and thus perhaps too optimistic), and because teams with large payrolls can and often do pay more for a win in the free-agent market.
I've also noted which players have received a $14.1 million qualifying offer. If a player receives one and signs elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick, and having a qualifying offer "attached" can really hurt the value of non-elite free agents.
Now, on to the rankings.
1Robinson Cano
AGE: 31DOB: 10/22/82HT: 6-0WT: 210POS: 2B
AVG .314OBP .383OPS .899HR 27WAR 7.6
A seven-win second baseman at age 31 who's showing little to no deterioration in his skills would be among the best free agents in any offseason, but this year's crop is weak enough to push Cano to the top.
Swing and approach changes spurred by Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long several years ago took Cano to superstar level, helping him become more patient and recognize off-speed stuff earlier so he can make better choices at the plate. Cano has very quick hands and generates plenty of power from his hips, producing hard contact that results in high BABIPs as well as an average of 28 homers the past five seasons (only slightly boosted by Yankee Stadium's cozy right-field dimensions).
If there's a flaw in his game, it's an occasional vulnerability to left-handed pitchers, especially those who can spin a curveball or sweep a slider down and away from him, a pitch he's shown a tendency to chase, but not enough to cause a major platoon split so far. He's a slightly above-average defender who probably could be more than that but occasionally appears to take a play off here or there, although it's worth crediting him for how far he's come on defense since he was a prospect who looked like he may not stay at second.
If you want an impact player and have $22 million to $25 million a year to spend, this is your guy, a 2-hole hitter for the next three or four years who should still be productive into his mid-30s.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
2Jacoby Ellsbury
AGE: 30DOB: 9/11/1983HT: 6-1WT: 195POS: CF
AVG .298OBP .3355OPS .781SB 52WAR 5.8
If, for the moment, we ignore Ellsbury's injury-marred 2012 season, we're looking at a 30-year-old centerfielder who plays outstanding defense, is a plus runner who adds value with his baserunning, and has generated over 14 WAR overall across his past two healthy seasons. Even before we discuss the inflationary nature of the free-agent market, that's a $20 million player, and one who typically would get six years and perhaps seven.
The hitch with Ellsbury is that he's had injuries wipe out most of two of his past four seasons, limiting him to 18 games in 2010 and 74 in 2012, both years where he played poorly when he wasn't on the disabled list. He broke several ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre in 2010, dislocated his shoulder in another collision in 2012, and even played with a stress fracture in his foot in September and October of this season. Whether that makes him injury-prone, or merely another one of those unlucky Andersons, is the main question for suitors to answer internally.
His 2013 skill set alone makes him the second-best free agent available, and the hope that he can recapture some of the power he showed in 2011, when he started to drop the bat head more often to drive pitchers on the inner half, likely will lead teams to bid him up over that $20 million mark.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
3Masahiro Tanaka
AGE: 25DOB: 11/1/1988HT: 6-2WT: 205POS: RHP
W-L 24-0*ERA 1.27IP 212SO 183BB 32
*All stats from 2013 Nippon Professional Baseball season
Way too much is being made of Tanaka's won-loss record this year for Rakuten -- as if we still haven't learned how utterly useless a measure that is of individual pitcher performance, 24 years after Storm Davis went 19-7 with a 4.36 ERA -- but he is the best free-agent starter available.
Comparisons to Yu Darvish are unfortunate, and wrong, but if we must keep to former NPB players, Hiroki Kuroda is a better fit: A potential No. 2 starter with outstanding control and at least one above-average to plus off-speed weapon to miss bats.
Tanaka used to pitch away from contact, but in the past two years, he has become more aggressive within the zone with his fastball, and his splitter is a solid 60 on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and his slider will flash above-average to plus, while he mixes in a below-average curveball and a cutter, the same "kitchen-sink" approach pitchers often use in NPB but have to simplify when they come to MLB.
Tanaka's delivery doesn't include as much hip rotation as many pitchers developed in Japan; he hides the ball behind him but doesn't generate much torque, and he's got a big hook in the back of his delivery. He also missed a month with an undisclosed injury in spring 2012, which has to be a concern given his high workloads dating to high school.
The optimistic view of Tanaka sees incredible control and at least one pitch, possibly two, to miss MLB hitters' bats, making him worth the $15 million-plus it'll take in annual salary to sign him. There are absolutely reasons for skepticism here, but the same holds true for every free-agent starter on this list.
STATS IN NPB
4Ubaldo Jimenez
AGE: 29DOB: 1/22/1984HT: 6-5WT: 210POS: RHP
W-L 13-9ERA 3.30SO 194BB 80WAR 2.7
From his first start with Cleveland in 2011 through the 2013 All-Star break, Ubaldo Jimenez was kind of terrible: He posted a 5.10 ERA in 340 2/3 innings, walking 175, allowing 45 homers, and striking out 299.
Cleveland pitching coach Mickey Callaway started to work aggressively with Jimenez this past spring, getting him to speed up his delivery and keep himself more online toward the plate when he strides. There were flashes of the new Ubaldo in the first half of 2013, and in the second half, he was dominant, punching out 100 against 27 walks in 84 innings. In fact, Jimenez allowed more than three runs in only five starts after April.
He'll pitch at 30 years old in 2014 and looks like a new guy out there, establishing the fastball earlier in counts, throwing it for more strikes and getting more swings and misses on it. That allows him to set up his plus slider, short and hard at 85-87 mph, as well as a low- to mid-80s splitter with good bottom that helps him against left-handed hitters.
The lack of track record is terrifying, but a 30-year-old with this kind of stuff and his newfound control has to get four years, if not more, in this kind of market, likely for $14 million to $15 million a year.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
5Shin-Soo Choo
AGE: 31DOB: 7/13/82HT: 5-11WT: 205POS: OF
AVG .285OBP .423OPS .885HR 21WAR 4.2
Choo is among the best free-agent position players on the market, one whose WAR stats probably understate his value, as he was asked to play out of position (in center field) in 2013.
When he returns to right field for a new club next year, his defensive value will improve, pushing his value up toward 6 WAR. He's among the majors' most patient hitters, an ideal leadoff guy with 15-20 homer power in a neutral park and an unusual talent for getting himself to first base via the HBP.
He has a major Achilles' heel, however, as his at-bats against lefties have been a lengthy exercise in futility, with lines of .215/.347/.265 in 2013; .199/.318/.286 in 2012; and .243/.340/.341 for his career. Those numbers the past two years, accumulated across 463 plate appearances, make him a strong candidate for a platoon, something few teams would consider with a player who is going to make the kind of money Choo should earn as a free agent.
Five years is probably too much given his age (32) and injury history, although it wouldn't surprise me if he got that, and he's worth close to $20 million a year to a high-revenue contender.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
6Ervin Santana
AGE: 30DOB: 12/12/1982HT: 6-2WT: 185POS: RHP
W-L 9-10ERA 3.24SO 161BB 51WAR 2.9
Santana's season with the Royals was a big part of why they managed to stay in the postseason race until the final two weeks of September, as he gave the Royals both quality and quantity while showing that he could pitch outside of the pitcher-friendly ballpark in Anaheim.
Santana's velocity was unchanged, but he used his sinker more often and got more movement on it, while he also threw more strikes across the board. The drop in his home run rate after leaving a tough home-run park has to help his case, as does the increased use of the sinker that explains how he kept the ball in the park more effectively.
He may always be a little homer-prone, but he's now in a range you can live with. He's one of the best free-agent starters available, and should get four years and top-of-the-market money as a result.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
7Ricky Nolasco
AGE: 30DOB: 12/13/1982HT: 6-2WT: 223POS: RHP
W-L 13-11ERA 3.70SO 165BB 46WAR 1.8
Nolasco looked like a new man in his first dozen starts after being a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, where he posted a 2.07 ERA, struck out 62, and walked 17 in 74 innings. His last three regular-season starts were fiascoes, as the Giants jumped all over his fastball in one outing, and in his next two, he seemed to shy away from establishing that pitch and was beaten on his curveball and split-change.
Given the additional scouting resources teams throw at potential free agents in September, the reports general managers get on Nolasco may not reflect how good he was until mid-September, especially the period where he was working to mimic Zack Greinke's approach, adding and subtracting with the fastball and putting guys away with the slider.
He's not Greinke, but he's durable enough to be Greinke-lite, worth 2.5 to 3 wins a year with a high probability of delivering 200 innings, which will get him three years and possibly four, all at mid-rotation money.
PLAYER CARD
8Brian McCann
AGE: 29DOB: 2/20/84HT: 6-3WT: 230POS: C
AVG .256OBP .336OPS .797HR 20WAR 2.2
McCann is a strong offensive catcher, one of the best in baseball, who frames pitches well and has a track record of consistent production.
McCann has a patient approach and solid recognition of off-speed stuff, and has good hip rotation for power, hitting 20 to 24 homers in each of the past six seasons. Behind the plate, he's a terrible throwing catcher, but among the better framing catchers in the majors, delivering a lot of extra value to his teams that current defensive metrics don't adequately capture. (Also, the fact that a good framing catcher can make a tangible difference is a sign that we need automated calling of balls and strikes, stat.)
I'd hate to go five years on any free-agent catcher, given the wear and tear on such a player's knees and lower back, but McCann might command that, as well as more than $15 million a year, and is an ideal candidate for a club in desperate need of a policeman to make sure no opposing players break any unwritten rules.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
9Stephen Drew
AGE: 30DOB: 3/16/83HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
AVG .253OBP .332OPS .776HR 13WAR 3.1
Drew just completed his first full healthy(ish) season since 2010, when a catastrophic ankle injury cost him a calendar year and led to his ouster from Arizona. He looked as good in the field as he had before he got hurt.
In a market with few shortstop options, that should make Drew a hot commodity. At the plate, he's a dead fastball hitter with a line-drive oriented swing, with just enough loft for 12-15 homers in a neutral park, but he struggles against any kind of off-speed stuff and is close to an automatic out against lefties.
The resurgence of his range in the field, thanks to the recovery of his ankle, is what makes him valuable -- replacement level is so low at shortstop that the offense he provides against right-handed pitchers makes him a 3-4 WAR player when healthy, worth three years and $12 million to $14 million a year to discount for his durability.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
10A.J. Burnett
AGE: 36DOB: 1/3/1977HT: 6-4WT: 230POS: RHP
W-L 10-11ERA 3.30SO 209BB 67WAR 1.7
Burnett had just three full, healthy seasons as a starter before he reached free agency at age 31, but in the five years under the contract he initially signed with the Yankees after 2008, he reached 30 starts and 186 innings in every season, with three of those years coming in at 3.0 WAR (per FanGraphs) or greater.
He ranked second among qualifying major league starters in ground-ball rate in 2013, thanks to the tremendous life on his fastball, and his curveball, a spike, was the most valuable in the majors, according to FanGraphs' pitch values. Hitters were just .147/.182/.198 when the pitch ended a plate appearance, and with two strikes, nearly a quarter of hitters swung and missed at the curveball for strike three. Even if his velocity slides with age -- he'll be pitching at 37 in 2014 -- his improved command of the spike curveball, a real rarity on that pitch, means he should continue missing bats at a high rate for a few years to come.
Three guaranteed years might be pushing it at his age, but his recent track record says he's worth that and more than $15 million per year.
PLAYER CARD
11Matt Garza
AGE: 29DOB: 11/26/1983HT: 6-4WT: 215POS: RHP
W-L 10-6ERA 3.82SO 136BB 42WAR 1.5
Garza followed the Ryan Dempster model one year later, pitching well for the Cubs, going to Texas in a trade, and pitching worse after the deal, hurting his stock a little as he heads into free agency.
He is a four-pitch pitcher who has reduced his worst offering, his changeup, to show-me status, while ramping up the use of his tailing two-seam fastball -- a positive move but one that hasn't helped him keep the ball on the ground or in the park.
The hard contact he's surrendering detracts from the value he brings through above-average control and the ability to miss bats with his slider, making him a mid-rotation, 3-WAR starter with a moderately high beta.
Assuming the 2012 elbow issue or 2013 lat strain don't cause him to flunk a physical, he's a three-year deal candidate in the $12 million to $14 million a year range.
PLAYER CARD
12Mike Napoli
AGE: 32DOB: 10/31/1981HT: 6-0WT: 220POS: 1B
AVG .259OBP .360OPS .842HR 23WAR 4.1
Napoli agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal with Boston last winter, only to have it voided after the Red Sox discovered he had a degenerative hip condition, resulting in a one-year deal that guaranteed him just $5 million.
He stayed healthy all year, however, and ended up earning his $13 million by spending 165 days on the active roster. He should garner more interest this offseason, but I'd expect offers to still carry playing time incentives to protect any club against an extended DL stint due to the hip. On the field, he's a three true outcomes hitter -- walks, strikeouts, and 20-30 homers -- who showed this year that he can play a solid first base, with better range and hands than he'd shown as a part-time first baseman in Texas.
Even $13 million is cheap for a four-win player on a good team, and I'd be willing to offer him incentives to take him past that number, up to $16 million to $18 million per year, with the right protections on a two-year deal.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
13Curtis Granderson
AGE: 32DOB: 3/16/1981HT: 6-1WT: 195POS: OF
AVG .229OBP .317OPS .724HR 7WAR 1.1
In 2011, Granderson was worth 6.7 WAR (per FanGraphs), among the most valuable position players in the league, thanks to his turnaround against left-handed pitchers that made him a complete player who drew walks and hit for substantial power.
His 2012 season was a step back, as his defense declined and he swung and missed more often just to maintain the same level of power output, while 2013 was a washout because of two fractures that limited him to 61 games. This could make him an appealing buy-low candidate, as he hits free agency off a miserable platform year, but a team might pay him hoping for 2011 and accepting 2012, when he was a 3-4 WAR player on offense who cost the Yankees with his glove in center.
Sign him for three years and $40 million to $45 million, run him out to left field every day, and hope that he stays healthy.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
14Jarrod Saltalamacchia
AGE: 28DOB: 5/2/85HT: 6-4WT: 235POS: C
AVG .273OBP .338OPS .804HR 14WAR 2.9
Saltalamacchia's development into an above-average catcher was a long process requiring patience two previous teams didn't have, but he blossomed with Boston, finishing seventh among MLB catchers in wOBA (min: 300 PA) this past season.
Some of that value came from a career-high .372 BABIP, which is totally unsustainable, but he's always been a solid line-drive hitter, and he tightened up his plate discipline just enough that you could comfortably posit him as a 2-WAR catcher going forward.
Although he is a switch-hitter, he could use a right-handed hitting platoon partner, as more than 600 MLB plate appearances against lefties have demonstrated that this is not his forte: .206/.267/.332, with about a .090 drop in his BABIP compared to what he does against right-handers. He's a below-average defensive catcher both at throwing and framing, but is passable enough to stay there and let his bat play, at least when he's hitting from the left side.
The market for catching is so weak that it's hard to imagine him getting fewer than three years.
PLAYER CARD
15Bartolo Colon
AGE: 40DOB: 5/24/1973HT: 5-11WT: 265POS: RHP
W-L 18-6ERA 2.65SO 117BB 29WAR 5.1
Fat jokes and PED jokes aside, the guy is 40 years old, throws one pitch (a fastball, 85 percent of the time, leading all MLB starters last year), and did about two-thirds of his work in 2013 in strong pitchers' parks. Even if he were svelte and had a clean history, he'd be facing a lot of skepticism and probably one-year-plus-option offers.
That all makes him more interesting to me as a variation of the buy-low candidate -- he's coming off a great year that a lot of teams will want to disbelieve, so he may find it hard to receive full value after a season that was worth four to five wins above replacement. He's like a house with an ugly kitchen where all the appliances work. It's a question of what you can live with, and what you're willing to pay.
PLAYER CARD
16Jhonny Peralta
AGE: 31DOB: 5/28/1982HT: 6-2WT: 215POS: SS/3B
AVG .303OBP .358OPS .815HR 11WAR 3.3
Peralta's a competent hitter for an infielder who created a ton of value for Detroit in the past three-plus years by standing around shortstop and playing adequate defense at a position where replacement value is currently somewhere in the crawl space under my house. (Seriously, you don't want to go in there.)
He smokes left-handed pitching and is decent enough against right-handers that he doesn't require a platoon-mate, struggling only against righties' sliders and plus-plus fastballs -- weaknesses for most right-handed hitters. He should have a lot of interest from clubs that need help at third base, where he'd probably be an asset on defense as well, but someone has to call and see if he'll play shortstop again, because the two major defensive metrics (UZR and DRS) both have him above-average there in each of the past three seasons.
It doesn't look pretty, but it doesn't have to. A fringe shortstop who posts a .340 OBP with 15-20 homers is practically an All-Star these days.
PLAYER CARD
17Carlos Beltran
AGE: 36DOB: 4/24/1977HT: 6-1WT: 210POS: OF
AVG .296OBP .339OPS .830HR 24WAR 2.4
Beltran hits the market in better position than he did two years ago, coming off two strong, healthy years for St. Louis where his offense wasn't far below where it was in his peak years.
His injury-plagued 2009 and 2010 seasons are less of an immediate concern at this point, although any 37-year-old position player carries a significant injury risk, and there's good reason to look at him as a left field or DH option to limit how much work his knees have to put in.
There were some red flags in his 2013 performance -- his defense was markedly worse, his platoon split widened with a .282 OBP against lefties (in a small sample), and his walk rate was the worst of his career -- all of which could point to an imminent decline. He also still makes a lot of hard contact with plus power, something few batters on this market can offer.
He'll probably get two years, because he's a possible Hall of Famer coming off two good years, although I'd rather go one year and $12-plus million than run the risk of the second year.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
18Scott Feldman
AGE: 30DOB: 2/7/1983HT: 6-7WT: 230POS: RHP
W-L 12-12ERA 3.86SO 132BB 56WAR 1.6
Feldman's stats took a small hit after moving back to the American League after a midseason trade from the Cubs, but he held his value well enough pitching in a tough division in the second half to keep himself in line for a long-term deal.
His 2012 ERA (5.09) didn't reflect how well he'd pitched overall if you went by his peripherals (strikeout, walk, and home run rates), and in 2013, everything came together and then some, as his .258 BABIP allowed was the lowest of his career. What's real about Feldman's 2013 improvement, however, is a sharper curveball, with better angle and depth, and more ground balls from his sinker than he's ever produced before. His walk rates have always been low and he strikes out just enough batters to post an ERA in the area of 4.00.
He's a good fourth starter who'll be paid like a third starter, probably a three-year deal in the $25 million to $30 million range total.
PLAYER CARD
19Hiroka Kuroda
AGE: 38DOB: 2/10/1975HT: 6-1WT: 205POS: RHP
W-L 11-13ERA 3.31SO 150BB 43WAR 4.1
DJ EZ-Hirok looked like he'd be a top-10 free agent until a late-season fade that added almost a run to his ERA across his final seven starts, as his fastball became more line-drive and homer-prone and he found himself unable to get to his out pitch, the splitter.
Before that point, Kuroda was his usual self, keeping the ball down, rarely walking anybody, and missing enough bats with the splitter to be an above-average and very durable starter. The eye test matched the stats for his end-of-year demise, as his fastball had no life and he was getting too much of the middle of the zone, shocking for a guy who'd generally worked the edges well for his career.
He'll be pitching at age 39 in 2014, and I think there's at least a 30 percent chance that he's already going over the cliff, so I wouldn't go more than a year and about $7 million to $8 million guaranteed, hoping there's another 3-WAR season in there but recognizing that if he's not that, there's a good chance he's down near replacement level.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
20Scott Kazmir
AGE: 29DOB: 1/24/84HT: 6-0WT: 185POS: LHP
W-L 8-7ERA 4.04SO 162BB 47WAR 1.1
Kazmir was out of organized baseball in 2012 and hadn't been above replacement level in the majors since 2008, but the time off and some mechanical tweaks have helped him recover his lost velocity. After working in the offseason with private pitching coach Ron Wolforth, he's sinking the ball more, and more effectively, than when he tried to remake himself in that vein in 2011.
Kazmir is getting better leverage off his back leg and rotating his upper body more completely; it's a delivery that looks more violent but brought back some of his lost velocity and allowed him to throw his slider for strikes. He has qualified just twice for the ERA title, the last time in 2007, so he shouldn't be paid like a mid-rotation starter even though his peripherals say he was one, but two years and $5 million to $6 million per year wouldn't be as insane as it sounds.
PLAYER CARD
21Tim Hudson
AGE: 38DOB: 7/14/75HT: 6-1WT: 175POS: RHP
W-L 8-7ERA 3.97SO 95BB 36WAR 1.0
If Hudson were younger, he'd likely be in line for a three- or four-year deal this offseason, even coming off a major ankle injury. He hasn't posted an ERA over 4.00 since 2006, and his primary skill, generating ground balls, is one that pitchers can hold even as their fastballs start to slip with age.
But Hudson will be 39 in July, so he's one of the best short-term starting pitcher options on the market, with outstanding control of that 88-90 mph sinker and an above-average slider as a way to miss some right-handers' bats. I wouldn't bank on more than about 180 innings from Hudson in 2014, but they'll likely be good ones, with a mid-3s ERA if he's got the right infield behind him.
PLAYER CARD
22Dan Haren
AGE: 33DOB: 9/17/80HT: 6-5WT: 215POS: RHP
W-L 10-14ERA 4.67SO 151BB 31WAR -0.1
Haren's one year in Washington started horribly, leading to a mid-year DL stint that he said was more for "mental reasons" than due to any injury, after which he posted numbers not too far off from his previous standard: 87 2/3 innings, 84 strikeouts, 18 walks, 9 homers, and a 3.29 ERA. While he's not going to do that over a full season, he has the command and control to learn to succeed with an 88 mph fastball, and the out pitch in the splitter that can help him continue to miss bats and potentially keep the ball in the park.
Locating the fastball down in the zone was key for him in the second half, and if he can do that to set up the splitter, he'll be a fourth or even third starter as long as he's healthy.
PLAYER CARD
23Nelson Cruz
AGE: 33DOB: 7/1/80HT: 6-2WT: 230POS: OF
AVG .266OBP .327OPS .822HR 27WAR 2
Cruz's 2013 season ended when he accepted a 50-game suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal, but prior to that, he'd had a very Nelson Cruz season -- lots of power, a low OBP, dubious defense -- but without his usual platoon or home/road split.
At 33, he probably hasn't acquired any new skills, but I could see teams looking at his road performance in 2013 (.267/.319/.519), or his uncharacteristic performance against right-handed starters (.262/.316/.521 after two years of a .244/.293/.443 line), and figuring he's a middle-of-the-order solution.
I think he's a complementary piece, good for 25-30 homers but with declining OBPs (toward and eventually below .300) as he ages, not someone I'd give more than two years. Texas gave him a qualifying offer, and he's the kind of player whose value could be significantly affected by that.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
24Juan Uribe
AGE: 34DOB: 3/22/1979HT: 6-0WT: 235POS: UTILITY
AVG .278OBP .331OPS .769HR 12WAR 4.1
The Uribear got himself in better shape -- I wouldn't say "good" shape, but better -- for 2013, improving his defense at third and running better than he had in years, producing the most valuable season of his career to date.
He can hit a good fastball and, as we all know now, a hanging breaking ball, but quality sliders and curveballs give him fits and he's never going to be a high-OBP or high-contact hitter. He'll play at 35 in 2014, so he's too risky for a multiyear deal, but his defense and power make him a solid bet for a year and $8 million, maybe a tick more if you think his clubhouse presence brings some extra value, too.
PLAYER CARD
25Kendrys Morales
AGE: 30DOB: 6/20/1983HT: 6-1WT: 225POS: DH/1B
AVG .277OBP .336OPS .785HR 23WAR 2.7
Morales improved slightly on his numbers from his return to action in 2012, a year that might have reflected the long layoff after a catastrophic foot injury cost him the 2011 season. The 2009 version of Morales isn't coming back, but he can be a productive solution at first or DH for a second-division club.
A switch-hitter, he's a better hitter from the left side, with more rotation and loft in his swing, and has a tendency to get long to the ball when hitting right-handed. He's a DH who can handle first base on a part-time basis, but most teams would like more defense out of that spot than he can provide.
The right environment could get him to 30 homers, but I'd expect more like 20-25 with a mediocre OBP and wouldn't go past two years and $12 million or so. Seattle gave him a qualifying offer, which could crush his value.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
26Jason Vargas
AGE: 30DOB: 2/2/1983HT: 6-0WT: 215POS: LHP
W-L 9-8ERA 4.02SO 109BB 46WAR 1.8
Vargas has had a quiet four-year run as a capable fifth starter, throwing 761 innings with a 3.97 ERA in two good pitchers' parks, good for about 7-8 WAR in that span.
He hasn't fully committed to junk-balling, still using his fastball 56 percent of the time, but works very heavily with his changeup (only four qualifying starters used it more) and curveball. The changeup has made him slightly more effective against right-handed batters, as it appears to be heading for the lower middle part of the zone but tails off and gets hitters to mistime and swing over the top of it.
Finesse lefties like this have a good history of holding value into their 30s even with below-average fastballs, and assuming Vargas' issue with a blood clot near his armpit has no lasting effects, he'd be worth two years and $10 million to $12 million.
PLAYER CARD
27Josh Johnson
AGE: 29DOB: 1/31/1984HT: 6-7WT: 210POS: RHP
W-L 2-8ERA 6.20SO 83BB 30WAR -1.6
Johnson was among the majors' best pitchers when healthy over his tenure in Miami, but he's been healthy less frequently in recent years and in 2013 was just awful when he wasn't on Toronto's disabled list. It's possible that the bone spurs that were removed from his elbow in early October were the cause of his loss of command -- his velocity was normal, but his fastball had little life and he was around the middle of the plate far too often, resulting in a career-high home run rate driven by that poor location.
He's the highest-upside pitcher among starting pitchers on this market, with enormous risk due to his injury history, but well worth a one-year deal with a generous option.
PLAYER CARD
28Carlos Ruiz
AGE: 31DOB: 1/22/79HT: 5-10WT: 205POS: C
AVG .268OBP .320OPS .688HR 5WAR 1.7
Ruiz might have made a lot more money had he been a free agent last offseason, but a positive test for amphetamines and an awful 2013 will diminish interest in him, especially as he's now a 35-year-old catcher who might not be able to handle full-time duty. His brief power surge in 2012 was probably a mirage, and he struggled to hit better velocity this past season.
He'd be a solid platoon catcher with a left-handed-hitting partner, although he'll likely get a one- or two-year deal for more than part-time money.
PLAYER CARD
29Marlon Byrd
AGE: 36DOB: 8/30/77HT: 6-0WT: 215POS: OF
AVG .291OBP .336OPS .843HR 24WAR 5
Byrd's bounceback year came after a 2012 season that saw him perform like a player at the end of his career until he was suspended for using a steroid-masking agent. In 2013, he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career while also posting the second-best BABIP of his career, all at age 35.
He plays an adequate corner outfield with above-average power, but I expect him to lose a good 30-40 points off his batting average and wouldn't go beyond a year and $6 million to $7 million guaranteed, if that.
PLAYER CARD
30Omar Infante
AGE: 31DOB: 12/26/81HT: 5-11WT: 195POS: 2B
AVG .318OBP .345OPS .795HR 10WAR 2.4
Infante plays solid-average defense at second and rarely strikes out, a combination of skills that has been enough to make him a 2-WAR or better player in each of the past three years, even though he does nothing particularly well. He's a versatile infielder who can handle short and is solid at third, so as he ages he's better cast in a super-utility role than as an everyday second baseman without power.
His .318 average in 2013, the second-best mark of his career, was a fluke, so expect him to drop back into the .270-.290 range with a low-.300s OBP, the kind of player worth a year and $4 million to $5 million because he can fill a couple of spots, but not much more than that.
PLAYER CARD
31Phil Hughes
AGE: 27DOB: 7/24/1986HT: 6-5WT: 240POS: RHP
W-L 4-14ERA 5.19SO 121BB 42WAR -0.7
Hughes never had any sustained success as a starter for the Yankees due to an absence of life on his four-seam fastball, making him an extreme fly ball/line-drive pitcher. He also lacks a viable third pitch, preferably one that would add lateral movement to his pitch mix.
He switched this year from a hard mid-70s curveball that broke almost straight down to a short, soft slider around 79-82 mph that is hard to command because of the way the pitch dies over the plate. He needs work to be more than a fifth starter, even though he has the durability. He certainly could benefit from a move to a large ballpark.
Otherwise, I like him as a short reliever who can air it out and potentially get tighter rotation on whatever breaking ball he takes going forward. Either way, he's a candidate for a one-year deal where he can reestablish his value for next winter.
PLAYER CARD
32Paul Maholm
AGE: 31DOB: 6/25/1982HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: LHP
W-L 10-11ERA 4.41SO 105BB 47WAR -0.1
Maholm was a dependable fourth or fifth starter for years, but he may have come too close to the ledge in 2013 as he had the worst fastball velocity of his career and couldn't keep the ball in the park despite a high ground-ball rate. His higher BABIP was probably also a function of that lost velocity, meaning Maholm is going to have to pitch backward and de-emphasize the fastball to be effective.
He's a left-hander with a good changeup, two common traits in pitchers who've made that transition, but right now I wouldn't go beyond a year, as he's a fifth starter with some downside risk.
PLAYER CARD
33James Loney
AGE: 29DOB: 5/7/1984HT: 6-3WT: 220POS: 1B
AVG .299OBP .348OPS .778HR 13WAR 2.7
Loney is a time-out-of-joint player, a high-contact, low-power first baseman with a good glove in an era where we want our first basemen to mash, even if it means a bunch of strikeouts. The Rays just let Loney be Loney and got the best full season of his career as a result, but the market for this kind of player remains slim, as few teams value this skill set at a traditional power position.
He might slip to .280/.335/.420 or so, but that's still a 2-WAR player and worth a year and $4 million to $5 million.
PLAYER CARD
34Chris Young
AGE: 30DOB: 9/5/83HT: 6-2WT: 190POS: OF
AVG .200OBP .280OPS .659HR 12WAR 0.0
I loved Chris Young as a buy-low candidate for Oakland (who acquired him in a trade with Arizona) last winter, but 2013 turned out to be a new low-water mark for him as he played the backup to Coco Crisp and only had 130 at-bats after the All-Star break. Young did shorten his swing in the second half, but the results weren't great, and he might be better off accepting more strikeouts if it restores his old power.
He's still a good buy-low candidate in my eyes, as he has some pop and patience, and can still play an average (if not better) center field. If I could get him for a year and $2 million guaranteed, I'd take that flier.
PLAYER CARD
35David Murphy
AGE: 32DOB: 10/18/1981HT: 6-4WT: 210POS: OF
AVG .220OBP .282OPS .656HR 13WAR 0.2
Murphy was never more than a platoon outfielder, since he couldn't hit left-handed pitching at all, but he stopped hitting right-handed pitching in 2013 and ended up a perfect example of that mythical beast: the replacement-level player.
He was eaten alive by off-speed stuff and struggled to elevate anything, only producing anything of value on defense, where he was well above-average in left field. He might not get a guaranteed deal, but I think he can at least return to the .275/.335/.440 level he showed from 2008 to 2011, which, with his glove, makes him worth $2 million to $3 million a year.
PLAYER CARD
36Franklin Gutierrez
AGE: 30DOB: 2/21/83HT: 6-2WT: 195POS: OF
AVG .248OBP .273OPS .776HR 10WAR 0.4
It wasn't that long ago that any discussion of the game's top defensive players had to start with Gutierrez, who was the game's best defensive center fielder in 2009 and among the best in 2010 and 2011. He's been hurt so often since then, however, that he's only accumulated 658 plate appearances in the past three seasons, and his defensive metrics have reflected his injuries and slight playing time.
On a one-year deal as a backup for a team with an uncertain center-field position, however, he'd be a good value play who has .250/.300/.450 potential at the plate if healthy.
PLAYER CARD
37Suk-Min Yoon
AGE: 27DOB: 7/24/86HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: RHP
W-L 3-6ERA 4.00IP 82 2/3SO 76BB 28
*All stats from 2013 Kia Tigers Professional Baseball season
Yoon wasn't the same after the 2013 World Baseball Classic, returning to KBO late in the spring and eventually landing in the bullpen when he couldn't regain his stuff as a starter. Prior to 2013, Yoon would work in the 90-92 mph range in the rotation with a full assortment of off-speed pitches, including an above-average or better changeup.
In 2013, he dropped to 87-90 mph and had to rely even more on his secondary stuff, only getting his velocity back in relief work. His fastball is true and up in the zone, so it's more likely he ends up in relief here than in a rotation, but I'd at least give him a chance to show he can miss enough bats with the changeup and slider to end up a fourth or fifth fourth starter.
STATS IN KBO
38Kelly Johnson
AGE: 31DOB: 2/22/1982HT: 6-1WT: 200POS: UTILITY
AVG .235OBP .305OPS .715HR 16WAR 1.3
Johnson is a three-true-outcomes player who doesn't hit enough homers to mitigate the lack of contact and low batting averages he produces. He's able to turn on a fastball, but pitchers who can locate their off-speed stuff eat him alive, especially if they can do so within the strike zone.
He played mostly in left field for the Rays in 2013, but has spent of his career at second base, where he's a slightly below-average defender. He runs deep counts, draws enough walks to keep his OBP over .300, and might sneak back to 20 homers in a full season, making him worth a year and $3 million to $4 million, but nothing further.
PLAYER CARD
39Joe Nathan
AGE: 38DOB: 11/22/74HT: 6-4WT: 230POS: RHP
SV 43ERA 1.39SO 73BB 22WAR 3.2
That ERA is misleading, but Nathan did have two very solid years in relief for the Rangers, producing more than 4 wins above replacement for the $14 million he was paid, and sparing us all endless "the Rangers need a proven closer" stories in that span.
There were some slight red flags in 2013, as his velocity was a little lower and he became more reliant on the slider than ever before, and hitters squared him up a little more often.
Nathan likely has two or three years left as a solid late-game relief option, good for just 60-70 innings a year in one-inning stints, overvalued by saves but still worth up to 2 WAR.
PLAYER CARD
40Jesse Crain
AGE: 32DOB: 7/5/1981HT: 6-1WT: 215POS: RHP
SV 0ERA 0.74SO 46BB 11WAR 2.4
Another pitcher in the "good when healthy" category, Crain was otherwordly for 36 innings to start 2013, but went down with a shoulder strain in early July and never returned, even after a late-July trade to Tampa Bay for a couple of non-prospects.
Crain's velocity was good when he pitched and he'd brought back the tight curveball he'd used more often in Minnesota, but his history of shoulder ailments, including major surgery in 2007 and at least two subsequent DL stints, will likely preclude him from getting more than a one-year, incentive-laden deal. He might be worth $1 million or so if he's healthy for 50 innings in 2014.
PLAYER CARD
41Fernando Rodney
AGE: 36DOB: 3/18/77HT: 5-11WT: 220POS: RHP
SV 37ERA 3.38SO 82BB 36WAR 0.5
Rodney was right on target in 2012, but he was wide of the mark too often in 2013, as his walk rate was more in line with his performance before his 2011 meltdown year in Anaheim. He works in the mid-90s with a legitimate out pitch in the changeup, but below-average fastball command and the lack of a breaking ball make him vulnerable to rallies of his own making.
He's a solid late-inning relief option but nowhere close to a 0.60 ERA guy or to what those 85 saves the past few years might seem to tell you.
PLAYER CARD
42Joaquin Benoit
AGE: 36DOB: 7/26/1977HT: 6-3WT: 220POS: RHP
SV 24ERA 2.01SO 73BB 22WAR 2.8
The grand slam he surrendered to David Ortiz in Game 2 of the ALCS shouldn't change our evaluation of Benoit, as he just turned in his fourth straight season of effective short relief work since Tampa Bay signed him off the scrap heap before 2010.
The Tigers used him judiciously in 2013, bringing him back without any days of rest only 15 times all season, which may be part of why he was throwing harder than ever. He's still a fastball-changeup guy with an average slider he doesn't need very often, and as long as he keeps throwing strikes, as he has the past four years, he can be a 1-WAR reliever who works in leveraged situations.
PLAYER CARD
43Jason Hammel
AGE: 31DOB: 9/2/1982HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: RHP
W-L 7-8ERA 4.97SO 96BB 48WAR 0.0
Hammel was so homer-prone in 2013 that he gave up more bombs in 139 innings than he did in any of the three full seasons he pitched for the Rockies.
His big 2012 season came thanks to heavy use of a two-seamer he'd introduced the previous fall, a low-90s fastball with plus sink that generated a 53 percent ground ball rate. Elbow trouble in 2013 killed his velocity and that two-seam action, reducing his effectiveness at missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground.
His velocity ticked back up in a final-day relief outing and he could have value as a swingman if he can't maintain his stuff in a fifth-starter role.
PLAYER CARD
44Joba Chamerlain
AGE: 31DOB: 9/2/1982HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: RHP
W-L 7-8ERA 4.97SO 96BB 48WAR 0.0
Joba might never have amounted to anything even if the Yankees had done everything right, but it is hard to think of a recent example of a pitcher who's been mishandled to this extent by any club that didn't simultaneously employ Dusty Baker. (Mark Prior waves with his non-throwing hand.)
Chamberlain still has a plus fastball and he'll flash a plus slider that can generate some ugly swings -- when he's not leaving it up over the plate, which he does too often. I think he's a one-year, change-of-scenery candidate for a setup role, a guy who has a good history of at least missing bats and is one grade of command away from being a 1.5-WAR reliever for someone other than the Yanks.
PLAYER CARD
45Bronson Arroyo
AGE: 36DOB: 2/24/1977HT: 6-4WT: 195POS: RHP
W-L 14-12ERA 3.79SO 124BB 34WAR 2.5
There's some value in durability, which Arroyo has, with 32 or more starts in nine straight seasons, including all eight since he moved to hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He's had to ramp up the use of his slider as his velocity has slipped into the upper 80s, averaging about 87 mph the past three years, and his problems with the long ball are only likely to increase as he gets older.
He fills up the strike zone and takes the ball every fifth day, which is somewhat faint praise but still makes him a $2 million to $3 million fifth-starter candidate on a one-year deal.
PLAYER CARD
46Brian Wilson
AGE: 31DOB: 3/16/1982HT: 6-2WT: 203POS: RHP
SV 0ERA 0.66SO 13BB 2WAR 0.6
If you want to give the people their beard and circus, this is your guy. Wilson actually looked very good in his late-season return to action with the Dodgers, throwing as hard as ever (after his second Tommy John surgery), and, in a limited sample, throwing strikes.
He's a solid setup candidate who has that closer aura in case a team wants a backup option for the ninth inning, worth a year (maybe with an option), and $2 million to $3 million.
PLAYER CARD
47Dioner Navarro
AGE: 29DOB: 2/9/84HT: 5-9WT: 205POS: C
AVG .300OBP .365OPS .857HR 13WAR 2.0
Navarro's surprising half-season in Chicago produced 2 WAR, a combination of his unusually high (by his own career norms) BABIP, a career high in homers, a solid walk rate, and above-average throwing.
He's a mediocre pitch-framer and hasn't performed like this since 2008, but would be worth up to $2 million on a one-year deal to be a fringe starter or a heavy-usage backup, given how little there is of value behind the plate right now.
PLAYER CARD
48Corey Hart
AGE: 31DOB: 3/24/82HT: 6-6WT: 235POS: 1B/OF
AVG .270*OBP .334OPS .841HR 30WAR 1.8
*Stats listed above are from 2012 season.
Hart missed all of 2013 after undergoing surgery on both knees, making his availability for full-time duty in 2014 something of a question mark, but making him one of the better high-risk/high-reward plays on the market.
He averaged .279/.343/.514 in his last three seasons in Milwaukee, an offense-first guy who struggles on defense but is very comfortable as the boy in the batter's box, except against right-handed pitchers' sliders, which have always given him fits. There's the risk he won't be able to handle a full season's workload, and the risk that after knee problems he'll lose some or much of his power because he can't fully utilize his lower half, but there's also the possibility that he slugs .475 or better even if it's in somewhat limited duty.
A team like Tampa Bay, with a hole at first and a history of going after guys like this, could see great value on a one-year, $3 million to $4 million deal.
PLAYER CARD
49Grant Balfour
AGE: 35DOB: 12/30/1977HT: 6-2WT: 200POS: RHP
SV 38ERA 2.59SO 72BB 27WAR 1.4
Balfour's been the beneficiary of a huge ballpark and good defense his past few years in Oakland, but he has that Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji] tag and is likely to be treated as such in the market when he's more of a solid middle reliever or setup type.
He has always had a big four-seamer that he could command in and around the zone, but in the past four years, he's gradually shifted from a fastball-only guy to a fastball-slider guy. He'll use the slider as a swing-and-miss pitch by going low and away to right-handed batters, while his hard curveball is his out pitch against lefties; he threw 66 curveballs to left-handed batters in 2013, but didn't allow any of those men to reach on that pitch, generating 13 swings and misses.
Because of the straight fastball, he's a heavy fly ball/line drive guy and likely will look worse in another park or in front of an inferior defense, but he can still provide a half- to a full win of value in a 65-inning relief role.
PLAYER CARD
50Mike Pelfrey
AGE: 33DOB: 6/6/1980HT: 6-4WT: 225POS: RHP
W-L 5-13ERA 5.19SO 101BB 53WAR -0.3
Pelfrey was basically replacement level in 2013, his first full year back after Tommy John surgery, which was by far the worst of his career.
Prior to the injury he'd been durable, if never close to what he was expected to be when he was the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Wichita State. He still works with an above-average fastball and has some sink, although his ground ball rate in Minnesota was a bit higher than his previous career norms.
The hope is that he can recapture that ground ball rate, while retaining his good control, which should get him a year and $2-3 million, although without a viable breaking ball he'll never be more than a fourth starter.
PLAYER CARD
This isn't surprising, given how many players sign long-term extensions to stay with their current teams. Hunter Pence, who would have been in the top 10, re-signed with San Francisco right at the end of the season, taking another impact guy off the market before he even reached it. So beyond the top of the list, you see a lot of fringe regulars and back-end starters. There's also the occasional upside play on a guy who has been injured or is coming off a year below his career norms.
With these rankings, I try to give a rough idea of the offer I'd be comfortable making to each player, assuming I were the general manager of a contending team (or would-be contending team) and operating at or above the median payroll level.
Estimating the actual dollar value of a player to any specific team is nearly impossible, because we don't know what the marginal revenue product of a win is for each club -- and that number can change for a team from season to season, or even within a season, if it's much better or worse than expected. (For example, the marginal revenue product of one win, meaning the additional revenues generated by one more victory, for the Pirates likely went up as their 2013 season went on and it became clearer that they were a playoff team with a shot at the division title.)
My numbers are not predictions, and they often will fall short of actual market values, due to the "winner's curse" phenomenon, where the winner of an auction for a good of uncertain value is the bidder whose internal estimates of that value are the highest (and thus perhaps too optimistic), and because teams with large payrolls can and often do pay more for a win in the free-agent market.
I've also noted which players have received a $14.1 million qualifying offer. If a player receives one and signs elsewhere, the signing team will lose a draft pick, and having a qualifying offer "attached" can really hurt the value of non-elite free agents.
Now, on to the rankings.
1Robinson Cano
AGE: 31DOB: 10/22/82HT: 6-0WT: 210POS: 2B
AVG .314OBP .383OPS .899HR 27WAR 7.6
A seven-win second baseman at age 31 who's showing little to no deterioration in his skills would be among the best free agents in any offseason, but this year's crop is weak enough to push Cano to the top.
Swing and approach changes spurred by Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long several years ago took Cano to superstar level, helping him become more patient and recognize off-speed stuff earlier so he can make better choices at the plate. Cano has very quick hands and generates plenty of power from his hips, producing hard contact that results in high BABIPs as well as an average of 28 homers the past five seasons (only slightly boosted by Yankee Stadium's cozy right-field dimensions).
If there's a flaw in his game, it's an occasional vulnerability to left-handed pitchers, especially those who can spin a curveball or sweep a slider down and away from him, a pitch he's shown a tendency to chase, but not enough to cause a major platoon split so far. He's a slightly above-average defender who probably could be more than that but occasionally appears to take a play off here or there, although it's worth crediting him for how far he's come on defense since he was a prospect who looked like he may not stay at second.
If you want an impact player and have $22 million to $25 million a year to spend, this is your guy, a 2-hole hitter for the next three or four years who should still be productive into his mid-30s.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
2Jacoby Ellsbury
AGE: 30DOB: 9/11/1983HT: 6-1WT: 195POS: CF
AVG .298OBP .3355OPS .781SB 52WAR 5.8
If, for the moment, we ignore Ellsbury's injury-marred 2012 season, we're looking at a 30-year-old centerfielder who plays outstanding defense, is a plus runner who adds value with his baserunning, and has generated over 14 WAR overall across his past two healthy seasons. Even before we discuss the inflationary nature of the free-agent market, that's a $20 million player, and one who typically would get six years and perhaps seven.
The hitch with Ellsbury is that he's had injuries wipe out most of two of his past four seasons, limiting him to 18 games in 2010 and 74 in 2012, both years where he played poorly when he wasn't on the disabled list. He broke several ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre in 2010, dislocated his shoulder in another collision in 2012, and even played with a stress fracture in his foot in September and October of this season. Whether that makes him injury-prone, or merely another one of those unlucky Andersons, is the main question for suitors to answer internally.
His 2013 skill set alone makes him the second-best free agent available, and the hope that he can recapture some of the power he showed in 2011, when he started to drop the bat head more often to drive pitchers on the inner half, likely will lead teams to bid him up over that $20 million mark.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
3Masahiro Tanaka
AGE: 25DOB: 11/1/1988HT: 6-2WT: 205POS: RHP
W-L 24-0*ERA 1.27IP 212SO 183BB 32
*All stats from 2013 Nippon Professional Baseball season
Way too much is being made of Tanaka's won-loss record this year for Rakuten -- as if we still haven't learned how utterly useless a measure that is of individual pitcher performance, 24 years after Storm Davis went 19-7 with a 4.36 ERA -- but he is the best free-agent starter available.
Comparisons to Yu Darvish are unfortunate, and wrong, but if we must keep to former NPB players, Hiroki Kuroda is a better fit: A potential No. 2 starter with outstanding control and at least one above-average to plus off-speed weapon to miss bats.
Tanaka used to pitch away from contact, but in the past two years, he has become more aggressive within the zone with his fastball, and his splitter is a solid 60 on the 20-80 scale. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and his slider will flash above-average to plus, while he mixes in a below-average curveball and a cutter, the same "kitchen-sink" approach pitchers often use in NPB but have to simplify when they come to MLB.
Tanaka's delivery doesn't include as much hip rotation as many pitchers developed in Japan; he hides the ball behind him but doesn't generate much torque, and he's got a big hook in the back of his delivery. He also missed a month with an undisclosed injury in spring 2012, which has to be a concern given his high workloads dating to high school.
The optimistic view of Tanaka sees incredible control and at least one pitch, possibly two, to miss MLB hitters' bats, making him worth the $15 million-plus it'll take in annual salary to sign him. There are absolutely reasons for skepticism here, but the same holds true for every free-agent starter on this list.
STATS IN NPB
4Ubaldo Jimenez
AGE: 29DOB: 1/22/1984HT: 6-5WT: 210POS: RHP
W-L 13-9ERA 3.30SO 194BB 80WAR 2.7
From his first start with Cleveland in 2011 through the 2013 All-Star break, Ubaldo Jimenez was kind of terrible: He posted a 5.10 ERA in 340 2/3 innings, walking 175, allowing 45 homers, and striking out 299.
Cleveland pitching coach Mickey Callaway started to work aggressively with Jimenez this past spring, getting him to speed up his delivery and keep himself more online toward the plate when he strides. There were flashes of the new Ubaldo in the first half of 2013, and in the second half, he was dominant, punching out 100 against 27 walks in 84 innings. In fact, Jimenez allowed more than three runs in only five starts after April.
He'll pitch at 30 years old in 2014 and looks like a new guy out there, establishing the fastball earlier in counts, throwing it for more strikes and getting more swings and misses on it. That allows him to set up his plus slider, short and hard at 85-87 mph, as well as a low- to mid-80s splitter with good bottom that helps him against left-handed hitters.
The lack of track record is terrifying, but a 30-year-old with this kind of stuff and his newfound control has to get four years, if not more, in this kind of market, likely for $14 million to $15 million a year.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
5Shin-Soo Choo
AGE: 31DOB: 7/13/82HT: 5-11WT: 205POS: OF
AVG .285OBP .423OPS .885HR 21WAR 4.2
Choo is among the best free-agent position players on the market, one whose WAR stats probably understate his value, as he was asked to play out of position (in center field) in 2013.
When he returns to right field for a new club next year, his defensive value will improve, pushing his value up toward 6 WAR. He's among the majors' most patient hitters, an ideal leadoff guy with 15-20 homer power in a neutral park and an unusual talent for getting himself to first base via the HBP.
He has a major Achilles' heel, however, as his at-bats against lefties have been a lengthy exercise in futility, with lines of .215/.347/.265 in 2013; .199/.318/.286 in 2012; and .243/.340/.341 for his career. Those numbers the past two years, accumulated across 463 plate appearances, make him a strong candidate for a platoon, something few teams would consider with a player who is going to make the kind of money Choo should earn as a free agent.
Five years is probably too much given his age (32) and injury history, although it wouldn't surprise me if he got that, and he's worth close to $20 million a year to a high-revenue contender.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
6Ervin Santana
AGE: 30DOB: 12/12/1982HT: 6-2WT: 185POS: RHP
W-L 9-10ERA 3.24SO 161BB 51WAR 2.9
Santana's season with the Royals was a big part of why they managed to stay in the postseason race until the final two weeks of September, as he gave the Royals both quality and quantity while showing that he could pitch outside of the pitcher-friendly ballpark in Anaheim.
Santana's velocity was unchanged, but he used his sinker more often and got more movement on it, while he also threw more strikes across the board. The drop in his home run rate after leaving a tough home-run park has to help his case, as does the increased use of the sinker that explains how he kept the ball in the park more effectively.
He may always be a little homer-prone, but he's now in a range you can live with. He's one of the best free-agent starters available, and should get four years and top-of-the-market money as a result.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
7Ricky Nolasco
AGE: 30DOB: 12/13/1982HT: 6-2WT: 223POS: RHP
W-L 13-11ERA 3.70SO 165BB 46WAR 1.8
Nolasco looked like a new man in his first dozen starts after being a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, where he posted a 2.07 ERA, struck out 62, and walked 17 in 74 innings. His last three regular-season starts were fiascoes, as the Giants jumped all over his fastball in one outing, and in his next two, he seemed to shy away from establishing that pitch and was beaten on his curveball and split-change.
Given the additional scouting resources teams throw at potential free agents in September, the reports general managers get on Nolasco may not reflect how good he was until mid-September, especially the period where he was working to mimic Zack Greinke's approach, adding and subtracting with the fastball and putting guys away with the slider.
He's not Greinke, but he's durable enough to be Greinke-lite, worth 2.5 to 3 wins a year with a high probability of delivering 200 innings, which will get him three years and possibly four, all at mid-rotation money.
PLAYER CARD
8Brian McCann
AGE: 29DOB: 2/20/84HT: 6-3WT: 230POS: C
AVG .256OBP .336OPS .797HR 20WAR 2.2
McCann is a strong offensive catcher, one of the best in baseball, who frames pitches well and has a track record of consistent production.
McCann has a patient approach and solid recognition of off-speed stuff, and has good hip rotation for power, hitting 20 to 24 homers in each of the past six seasons. Behind the plate, he's a terrible throwing catcher, but among the better framing catchers in the majors, delivering a lot of extra value to his teams that current defensive metrics don't adequately capture. (Also, the fact that a good framing catcher can make a tangible difference is a sign that we need automated calling of balls and strikes, stat.)
I'd hate to go five years on any free-agent catcher, given the wear and tear on such a player's knees and lower back, but McCann might command that, as well as more than $15 million a year, and is an ideal candidate for a club in desperate need of a policeman to make sure no opposing players break any unwritten rules.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
9Stephen Drew
AGE: 30DOB: 3/16/83HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: SS
AVG .253OBP .332OPS .776HR 13WAR 3.1
Drew just completed his first full healthy(ish) season since 2010, when a catastrophic ankle injury cost him a calendar year and led to his ouster from Arizona. He looked as good in the field as he had before he got hurt.
In a market with few shortstop options, that should make Drew a hot commodity. At the plate, he's a dead fastball hitter with a line-drive oriented swing, with just enough loft for 12-15 homers in a neutral park, but he struggles against any kind of off-speed stuff and is close to an automatic out against lefties.
The resurgence of his range in the field, thanks to the recovery of his ankle, is what makes him valuable -- replacement level is so low at shortstop that the offense he provides against right-handed pitchers makes him a 3-4 WAR player when healthy, worth three years and $12 million to $14 million a year to discount for his durability.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
10A.J. Burnett
AGE: 36DOB: 1/3/1977HT: 6-4WT: 230POS: RHP
W-L 10-11ERA 3.30SO 209BB 67WAR 1.7
Burnett had just three full, healthy seasons as a starter before he reached free agency at age 31, but in the five years under the contract he initially signed with the Yankees after 2008, he reached 30 starts and 186 innings in every season, with three of those years coming in at 3.0 WAR (per FanGraphs) or greater.
He ranked second among qualifying major league starters in ground-ball rate in 2013, thanks to the tremendous life on his fastball, and his curveball, a spike, was the most valuable in the majors, according to FanGraphs' pitch values. Hitters were just .147/.182/.198 when the pitch ended a plate appearance, and with two strikes, nearly a quarter of hitters swung and missed at the curveball for strike three. Even if his velocity slides with age -- he'll be pitching at 37 in 2014 -- his improved command of the spike curveball, a real rarity on that pitch, means he should continue missing bats at a high rate for a few years to come.
Three guaranteed years might be pushing it at his age, but his recent track record says he's worth that and more than $15 million per year.
PLAYER CARD
11Matt Garza
AGE: 29DOB: 11/26/1983HT: 6-4WT: 215POS: RHP
W-L 10-6ERA 3.82SO 136BB 42WAR 1.5
Garza followed the Ryan Dempster model one year later, pitching well for the Cubs, going to Texas in a trade, and pitching worse after the deal, hurting his stock a little as he heads into free agency.
He is a four-pitch pitcher who has reduced his worst offering, his changeup, to show-me status, while ramping up the use of his tailing two-seam fastball -- a positive move but one that hasn't helped him keep the ball on the ground or in the park.
The hard contact he's surrendering detracts from the value he brings through above-average control and the ability to miss bats with his slider, making him a mid-rotation, 3-WAR starter with a moderately high beta.
Assuming the 2012 elbow issue or 2013 lat strain don't cause him to flunk a physical, he's a three-year deal candidate in the $12 million to $14 million a year range.
PLAYER CARD
12Mike Napoli
AGE: 32DOB: 10/31/1981HT: 6-0WT: 220POS: 1B
AVG .259OBP .360OPS .842HR 23WAR 4.1
Napoli agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal with Boston last winter, only to have it voided after the Red Sox discovered he had a degenerative hip condition, resulting in a one-year deal that guaranteed him just $5 million.
He stayed healthy all year, however, and ended up earning his $13 million by spending 165 days on the active roster. He should garner more interest this offseason, but I'd expect offers to still carry playing time incentives to protect any club against an extended DL stint due to the hip. On the field, he's a three true outcomes hitter -- walks, strikeouts, and 20-30 homers -- who showed this year that he can play a solid first base, with better range and hands than he'd shown as a part-time first baseman in Texas.
Even $13 million is cheap for a four-win player on a good team, and I'd be willing to offer him incentives to take him past that number, up to $16 million to $18 million per year, with the right protections on a two-year deal.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
13Curtis Granderson
AGE: 32DOB: 3/16/1981HT: 6-1WT: 195POS: OF
AVG .229OBP .317OPS .724HR 7WAR 1.1
In 2011, Granderson was worth 6.7 WAR (per FanGraphs), among the most valuable position players in the league, thanks to his turnaround against left-handed pitchers that made him a complete player who drew walks and hit for substantial power.
His 2012 season was a step back, as his defense declined and he swung and missed more often just to maintain the same level of power output, while 2013 was a washout because of two fractures that limited him to 61 games. This could make him an appealing buy-low candidate, as he hits free agency off a miserable platform year, but a team might pay him hoping for 2011 and accepting 2012, when he was a 3-4 WAR player on offense who cost the Yankees with his glove in center.
Sign him for three years and $40 million to $45 million, run him out to left field every day, and hope that he stays healthy.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
14Jarrod Saltalamacchia
AGE: 28DOB: 5/2/85HT: 6-4WT: 235POS: C
AVG .273OBP .338OPS .804HR 14WAR 2.9
Saltalamacchia's development into an above-average catcher was a long process requiring patience two previous teams didn't have, but he blossomed with Boston, finishing seventh among MLB catchers in wOBA (min: 300 PA) this past season.
Some of that value came from a career-high .372 BABIP, which is totally unsustainable, but he's always been a solid line-drive hitter, and he tightened up his plate discipline just enough that you could comfortably posit him as a 2-WAR catcher going forward.
Although he is a switch-hitter, he could use a right-handed hitting platoon partner, as more than 600 MLB plate appearances against lefties have demonstrated that this is not his forte: .206/.267/.332, with about a .090 drop in his BABIP compared to what he does against right-handers. He's a below-average defensive catcher both at throwing and framing, but is passable enough to stay there and let his bat play, at least when he's hitting from the left side.
The market for catching is so weak that it's hard to imagine him getting fewer than three years.
PLAYER CARD
15Bartolo Colon
AGE: 40DOB: 5/24/1973HT: 5-11WT: 265POS: RHP
W-L 18-6ERA 2.65SO 117BB 29WAR 5.1
Fat jokes and PED jokes aside, the guy is 40 years old, throws one pitch (a fastball, 85 percent of the time, leading all MLB starters last year), and did about two-thirds of his work in 2013 in strong pitchers' parks. Even if he were svelte and had a clean history, he'd be facing a lot of skepticism and probably one-year-plus-option offers.
That all makes him more interesting to me as a variation of the buy-low candidate -- he's coming off a great year that a lot of teams will want to disbelieve, so he may find it hard to receive full value after a season that was worth four to five wins above replacement. He's like a house with an ugly kitchen where all the appliances work. It's a question of what you can live with, and what you're willing to pay.
PLAYER CARD
16Jhonny Peralta
AGE: 31DOB: 5/28/1982HT: 6-2WT: 215POS: SS/3B
AVG .303OBP .358OPS .815HR 11WAR 3.3
Peralta's a competent hitter for an infielder who created a ton of value for Detroit in the past three-plus years by standing around shortstop and playing adequate defense at a position where replacement value is currently somewhere in the crawl space under my house. (Seriously, you don't want to go in there.)
He smokes left-handed pitching and is decent enough against right-handers that he doesn't require a platoon-mate, struggling only against righties' sliders and plus-plus fastballs -- weaknesses for most right-handed hitters. He should have a lot of interest from clubs that need help at third base, where he'd probably be an asset on defense as well, but someone has to call and see if he'll play shortstop again, because the two major defensive metrics (UZR and DRS) both have him above-average there in each of the past three seasons.
It doesn't look pretty, but it doesn't have to. A fringe shortstop who posts a .340 OBP with 15-20 homers is practically an All-Star these days.
PLAYER CARD
17Carlos Beltran
AGE: 36DOB: 4/24/1977HT: 6-1WT: 210POS: OF
AVG .296OBP .339OPS .830HR 24WAR 2.4
Beltran hits the market in better position than he did two years ago, coming off two strong, healthy years for St. Louis where his offense wasn't far below where it was in his peak years.
His injury-plagued 2009 and 2010 seasons are less of an immediate concern at this point, although any 37-year-old position player carries a significant injury risk, and there's good reason to look at him as a left field or DH option to limit how much work his knees have to put in.
There were some red flags in his 2013 performance -- his defense was markedly worse, his platoon split widened with a .282 OBP against lefties (in a small sample), and his walk rate was the worst of his career -- all of which could point to an imminent decline. He also still makes a lot of hard contact with plus power, something few batters on this market can offer.
He'll probably get two years, because he's a possible Hall of Famer coming off two good years, although I'd rather go one year and $12-plus million than run the risk of the second year.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
18Scott Feldman
AGE: 30DOB: 2/7/1983HT: 6-7WT: 230POS: RHP
W-L 12-12ERA 3.86SO 132BB 56WAR 1.6
Feldman's stats took a small hit after moving back to the American League after a midseason trade from the Cubs, but he held his value well enough pitching in a tough division in the second half to keep himself in line for a long-term deal.
His 2012 ERA (5.09) didn't reflect how well he'd pitched overall if you went by his peripherals (strikeout, walk, and home run rates), and in 2013, everything came together and then some, as his .258 BABIP allowed was the lowest of his career. What's real about Feldman's 2013 improvement, however, is a sharper curveball, with better angle and depth, and more ground balls from his sinker than he's ever produced before. His walk rates have always been low and he strikes out just enough batters to post an ERA in the area of 4.00.
He's a good fourth starter who'll be paid like a third starter, probably a three-year deal in the $25 million to $30 million range total.
PLAYER CARD
19Hiroka Kuroda
AGE: 38DOB: 2/10/1975HT: 6-1WT: 205POS: RHP
W-L 11-13ERA 3.31SO 150BB 43WAR 4.1
DJ EZ-Hirok looked like he'd be a top-10 free agent until a late-season fade that added almost a run to his ERA across his final seven starts, as his fastball became more line-drive and homer-prone and he found himself unable to get to his out pitch, the splitter.
Before that point, Kuroda was his usual self, keeping the ball down, rarely walking anybody, and missing enough bats with the splitter to be an above-average and very durable starter. The eye test matched the stats for his end-of-year demise, as his fastball had no life and he was getting too much of the middle of the zone, shocking for a guy who'd generally worked the edges well for his career.
He'll be pitching at age 39 in 2014, and I think there's at least a 30 percent chance that he's already going over the cliff, so I wouldn't go more than a year and about $7 million to $8 million guaranteed, hoping there's another 3-WAR season in there but recognizing that if he's not that, there's a good chance he's down near replacement level.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
20Scott Kazmir
AGE: 29DOB: 1/24/84HT: 6-0WT: 185POS: LHP
W-L 8-7ERA 4.04SO 162BB 47WAR 1.1
Kazmir was out of organized baseball in 2012 and hadn't been above replacement level in the majors since 2008, but the time off and some mechanical tweaks have helped him recover his lost velocity. After working in the offseason with private pitching coach Ron Wolforth, he's sinking the ball more, and more effectively, than when he tried to remake himself in that vein in 2011.
Kazmir is getting better leverage off his back leg and rotating his upper body more completely; it's a delivery that looks more violent but brought back some of his lost velocity and allowed him to throw his slider for strikes. He has qualified just twice for the ERA title, the last time in 2007, so he shouldn't be paid like a mid-rotation starter even though his peripherals say he was one, but two years and $5 million to $6 million per year wouldn't be as insane as it sounds.
PLAYER CARD
21Tim Hudson
AGE: 38DOB: 7/14/75HT: 6-1WT: 175POS: RHP
W-L 8-7ERA 3.97SO 95BB 36WAR 1.0
If Hudson were younger, he'd likely be in line for a three- or four-year deal this offseason, even coming off a major ankle injury. He hasn't posted an ERA over 4.00 since 2006, and his primary skill, generating ground balls, is one that pitchers can hold even as their fastballs start to slip with age.
But Hudson will be 39 in July, so he's one of the best short-term starting pitcher options on the market, with outstanding control of that 88-90 mph sinker and an above-average slider as a way to miss some right-handers' bats. I wouldn't bank on more than about 180 innings from Hudson in 2014, but they'll likely be good ones, with a mid-3s ERA if he's got the right infield behind him.
PLAYER CARD
22Dan Haren
AGE: 33DOB: 9/17/80HT: 6-5WT: 215POS: RHP
W-L 10-14ERA 4.67SO 151BB 31WAR -0.1
Haren's one year in Washington started horribly, leading to a mid-year DL stint that he said was more for "mental reasons" than due to any injury, after which he posted numbers not too far off from his previous standard: 87 2/3 innings, 84 strikeouts, 18 walks, 9 homers, and a 3.29 ERA. While he's not going to do that over a full season, he has the command and control to learn to succeed with an 88 mph fastball, and the out pitch in the splitter that can help him continue to miss bats and potentially keep the ball in the park.
Locating the fastball down in the zone was key for him in the second half, and if he can do that to set up the splitter, he'll be a fourth or even third starter as long as he's healthy.
PLAYER CARD
23Nelson Cruz
AGE: 33DOB: 7/1/80HT: 6-2WT: 230POS: OF
AVG .266OBP .327OPS .822HR 27WAR 2
Cruz's 2013 season ended when he accepted a 50-game suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal, but prior to that, he'd had a very Nelson Cruz season -- lots of power, a low OBP, dubious defense -- but without his usual platoon or home/road split.
At 33, he probably hasn't acquired any new skills, but I could see teams looking at his road performance in 2013 (.267/.319/.519), or his uncharacteristic performance against right-handed starters (.262/.316/.521 after two years of a .244/.293/.443 line), and figuring he's a middle-of-the-order solution.
I think he's a complementary piece, good for 25-30 homers but with declining OBPs (toward and eventually below .300) as he ages, not someone I'd give more than two years. Texas gave him a qualifying offer, and he's the kind of player whose value could be significantly affected by that.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
24Juan Uribe
AGE: 34DOB: 3/22/1979HT: 6-0WT: 235POS: UTILITY
AVG .278OBP .331OPS .769HR 12WAR 4.1
The Uribear got himself in better shape -- I wouldn't say "good" shape, but better -- for 2013, improving his defense at third and running better than he had in years, producing the most valuable season of his career to date.
He can hit a good fastball and, as we all know now, a hanging breaking ball, but quality sliders and curveballs give him fits and he's never going to be a high-OBP or high-contact hitter. He'll play at 35 in 2014, so he's too risky for a multiyear deal, but his defense and power make him a solid bet for a year and $8 million, maybe a tick more if you think his clubhouse presence brings some extra value, too.
PLAYER CARD
25Kendrys Morales
AGE: 30DOB: 6/20/1983HT: 6-1WT: 225POS: DH/1B
AVG .277OBP .336OPS .785HR 23WAR 2.7
Morales improved slightly on his numbers from his return to action in 2012, a year that might have reflected the long layoff after a catastrophic foot injury cost him the 2011 season. The 2009 version of Morales isn't coming back, but he can be a productive solution at first or DH for a second-division club.
A switch-hitter, he's a better hitter from the left side, with more rotation and loft in his swing, and has a tendency to get long to the ball when hitting right-handed. He's a DH who can handle first base on a part-time basis, but most teams would like more defense out of that spot than he can provide.
The right environment could get him to 30 homers, but I'd expect more like 20-25 with a mediocre OBP and wouldn't go past two years and $12 million or so. Seattle gave him a qualifying offer, which could crush his value.
• Received qualifying offer
PLAYER CARD
26Jason Vargas
AGE: 30DOB: 2/2/1983HT: 6-0WT: 215POS: LHP
W-L 9-8ERA 4.02SO 109BB 46WAR 1.8
Vargas has had a quiet four-year run as a capable fifth starter, throwing 761 innings with a 3.97 ERA in two good pitchers' parks, good for about 7-8 WAR in that span.
He hasn't fully committed to junk-balling, still using his fastball 56 percent of the time, but works very heavily with his changeup (only four qualifying starters used it more) and curveball. The changeup has made him slightly more effective against right-handed batters, as it appears to be heading for the lower middle part of the zone but tails off and gets hitters to mistime and swing over the top of it.
Finesse lefties like this have a good history of holding value into their 30s even with below-average fastballs, and assuming Vargas' issue with a blood clot near his armpit has no lasting effects, he'd be worth two years and $10 million to $12 million.
PLAYER CARD
27Josh Johnson
AGE: 29DOB: 1/31/1984HT: 6-7WT: 210POS: RHP
W-L 2-8ERA 6.20SO 83BB 30WAR -1.6
Johnson was among the majors' best pitchers when healthy over his tenure in Miami, but he's been healthy less frequently in recent years and in 2013 was just awful when he wasn't on Toronto's disabled list. It's possible that the bone spurs that were removed from his elbow in early October were the cause of his loss of command -- his velocity was normal, but his fastball had little life and he was around the middle of the plate far too often, resulting in a career-high home run rate driven by that poor location.
He's the highest-upside pitcher among starting pitchers on this market, with enormous risk due to his injury history, but well worth a one-year deal with a generous option.
PLAYER CARD
28Carlos Ruiz
AGE: 31DOB: 1/22/79HT: 5-10WT: 205POS: C
AVG .268OBP .320OPS .688HR 5WAR 1.7
Ruiz might have made a lot more money had he been a free agent last offseason, but a positive test for amphetamines and an awful 2013 will diminish interest in him, especially as he's now a 35-year-old catcher who might not be able to handle full-time duty. His brief power surge in 2012 was probably a mirage, and he struggled to hit better velocity this past season.
He'd be a solid platoon catcher with a left-handed-hitting partner, although he'll likely get a one- or two-year deal for more than part-time money.
PLAYER CARD
29Marlon Byrd
AGE: 36DOB: 8/30/77HT: 6-0WT: 215POS: OF
AVG .291OBP .336OPS .843HR 24WAR 5
Byrd's bounceback year came after a 2012 season that saw him perform like a player at the end of his career until he was suspended for using a steroid-masking agent. In 2013, he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career while also posting the second-best BABIP of his career, all at age 35.
He plays an adequate corner outfield with above-average power, but I expect him to lose a good 30-40 points off his batting average and wouldn't go beyond a year and $6 million to $7 million guaranteed, if that.
PLAYER CARD
30Omar Infante
AGE: 31DOB: 12/26/81HT: 5-11WT: 195POS: 2B
AVG .318OBP .345OPS .795HR 10WAR 2.4
Infante plays solid-average defense at second and rarely strikes out, a combination of skills that has been enough to make him a 2-WAR or better player in each of the past three years, even though he does nothing particularly well. He's a versatile infielder who can handle short and is solid at third, so as he ages he's better cast in a super-utility role than as an everyday second baseman without power.
His .318 average in 2013, the second-best mark of his career, was a fluke, so expect him to drop back into the .270-.290 range with a low-.300s OBP, the kind of player worth a year and $4 million to $5 million because he can fill a couple of spots, but not much more than that.
PLAYER CARD
31Phil Hughes
AGE: 27DOB: 7/24/1986HT: 6-5WT: 240POS: RHP
W-L 4-14ERA 5.19SO 121BB 42WAR -0.7
Hughes never had any sustained success as a starter for the Yankees due to an absence of life on his four-seam fastball, making him an extreme fly ball/line-drive pitcher. He also lacks a viable third pitch, preferably one that would add lateral movement to his pitch mix.
He switched this year from a hard mid-70s curveball that broke almost straight down to a short, soft slider around 79-82 mph that is hard to command because of the way the pitch dies over the plate. He needs work to be more than a fifth starter, even though he has the durability. He certainly could benefit from a move to a large ballpark.
Otherwise, I like him as a short reliever who can air it out and potentially get tighter rotation on whatever breaking ball he takes going forward. Either way, he's a candidate for a one-year deal where he can reestablish his value for next winter.
PLAYER CARD
32Paul Maholm
AGE: 31DOB: 6/25/1982HT: 6-2WT: 220POS: LHP
W-L 10-11ERA 4.41SO 105BB 47WAR -0.1
Maholm was a dependable fourth or fifth starter for years, but he may have come too close to the ledge in 2013 as he had the worst fastball velocity of his career and couldn't keep the ball in the park despite a high ground-ball rate. His higher BABIP was probably also a function of that lost velocity, meaning Maholm is going to have to pitch backward and de-emphasize the fastball to be effective.
He's a left-hander with a good changeup, two common traits in pitchers who've made that transition, but right now I wouldn't go beyond a year, as he's a fifth starter with some downside risk.
PLAYER CARD
33James Loney
AGE: 29DOB: 5/7/1984HT: 6-3WT: 220POS: 1B
AVG .299OBP .348OPS .778HR 13WAR 2.7
Loney is a time-out-of-joint player, a high-contact, low-power first baseman with a good glove in an era where we want our first basemen to mash, even if it means a bunch of strikeouts. The Rays just let Loney be Loney and got the best full season of his career as a result, but the market for this kind of player remains slim, as few teams value this skill set at a traditional power position.
He might slip to .280/.335/.420 or so, but that's still a 2-WAR player and worth a year and $4 million to $5 million.
PLAYER CARD
34Chris Young
AGE: 30DOB: 9/5/83HT: 6-2WT: 190POS: OF
AVG .200OBP .280OPS .659HR 12WAR 0.0
I loved Chris Young as a buy-low candidate for Oakland (who acquired him in a trade with Arizona) last winter, but 2013 turned out to be a new low-water mark for him as he played the backup to Coco Crisp and only had 130 at-bats after the All-Star break. Young did shorten his swing in the second half, but the results weren't great, and he might be better off accepting more strikeouts if it restores his old power.
He's still a good buy-low candidate in my eyes, as he has some pop and patience, and can still play an average (if not better) center field. If I could get him for a year and $2 million guaranteed, I'd take that flier.
PLAYER CARD
35David Murphy
AGE: 32DOB: 10/18/1981HT: 6-4WT: 210POS: OF
AVG .220OBP .282OPS .656HR 13WAR 0.2
Murphy was never more than a platoon outfielder, since he couldn't hit left-handed pitching at all, but he stopped hitting right-handed pitching in 2013 and ended up a perfect example of that mythical beast: the replacement-level player.
He was eaten alive by off-speed stuff and struggled to elevate anything, only producing anything of value on defense, where he was well above-average in left field. He might not get a guaranteed deal, but I think he can at least return to the .275/.335/.440 level he showed from 2008 to 2011, which, with his glove, makes him worth $2 million to $3 million a year.
PLAYER CARD
36Franklin Gutierrez
AGE: 30DOB: 2/21/83HT: 6-2WT: 195POS: OF
AVG .248OBP .273OPS .776HR 10WAR 0.4
It wasn't that long ago that any discussion of the game's top defensive players had to start with Gutierrez, who was the game's best defensive center fielder in 2009 and among the best in 2010 and 2011. He's been hurt so often since then, however, that he's only accumulated 658 plate appearances in the past three seasons, and his defensive metrics have reflected his injuries and slight playing time.
On a one-year deal as a backup for a team with an uncertain center-field position, however, he'd be a good value play who has .250/.300/.450 potential at the plate if healthy.
PLAYER CARD
37Suk-Min Yoon
AGE: 27DOB: 7/24/86HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: RHP
W-L 3-6ERA 4.00IP 82 2/3SO 76BB 28
*All stats from 2013 Kia Tigers Professional Baseball season
Yoon wasn't the same after the 2013 World Baseball Classic, returning to KBO late in the spring and eventually landing in the bullpen when he couldn't regain his stuff as a starter. Prior to 2013, Yoon would work in the 90-92 mph range in the rotation with a full assortment of off-speed pitches, including an above-average or better changeup.
In 2013, he dropped to 87-90 mph and had to rely even more on his secondary stuff, only getting his velocity back in relief work. His fastball is true and up in the zone, so it's more likely he ends up in relief here than in a rotation, but I'd at least give him a chance to show he can miss enough bats with the changeup and slider to end up a fourth or fifth fourth starter.
STATS IN KBO
38Kelly Johnson
AGE: 31DOB: 2/22/1982HT: 6-1WT: 200POS: UTILITY
AVG .235OBP .305OPS .715HR 16WAR 1.3
Johnson is a three-true-outcomes player who doesn't hit enough homers to mitigate the lack of contact and low batting averages he produces. He's able to turn on a fastball, but pitchers who can locate their off-speed stuff eat him alive, especially if they can do so within the strike zone.
He played mostly in left field for the Rays in 2013, but has spent of his career at second base, where he's a slightly below-average defender. He runs deep counts, draws enough walks to keep his OBP over .300, and might sneak back to 20 homers in a full season, making him worth a year and $3 million to $4 million, but nothing further.
PLAYER CARD
39Joe Nathan
AGE: 38DOB: 11/22/74HT: 6-4WT: 230POS: RHP
SV 43ERA 1.39SO 73BB 22WAR 3.2
That ERA is misleading, but Nathan did have two very solid years in relief for the Rangers, producing more than 4 wins above replacement for the $14 million he was paid, and sparing us all endless "the Rangers need a proven closer" stories in that span.
There were some slight red flags in 2013, as his velocity was a little lower and he became more reliant on the slider than ever before, and hitters squared him up a little more often.
Nathan likely has two or three years left as a solid late-game relief option, good for just 60-70 innings a year in one-inning stints, overvalued by saves but still worth up to 2 WAR.
PLAYER CARD
40Jesse Crain
AGE: 32DOB: 7/5/1981HT: 6-1WT: 215POS: RHP
SV 0ERA 0.74SO 46BB 11WAR 2.4
Another pitcher in the "good when healthy" category, Crain was otherwordly for 36 innings to start 2013, but went down with a shoulder strain in early July and never returned, even after a late-July trade to Tampa Bay for a couple of non-prospects.
Crain's velocity was good when he pitched and he'd brought back the tight curveball he'd used more often in Minnesota, but his history of shoulder ailments, including major surgery in 2007 and at least two subsequent DL stints, will likely preclude him from getting more than a one-year, incentive-laden deal. He might be worth $1 million or so if he's healthy for 50 innings in 2014.
PLAYER CARD
41Fernando Rodney
AGE: 36DOB: 3/18/77HT: 5-11WT: 220POS: RHP
SV 37ERA 3.38SO 82BB 36WAR 0.5
Rodney was right on target in 2012, but he was wide of the mark too often in 2013, as his walk rate was more in line with his performance before his 2011 meltdown year in Anaheim. He works in the mid-90s with a legitimate out pitch in the changeup, but below-average fastball command and the lack of a breaking ball make him vulnerable to rallies of his own making.
He's a solid late-inning relief option but nowhere close to a 0.60 ERA guy or to what those 85 saves the past few years might seem to tell you.
PLAYER CARD
42Joaquin Benoit
AGE: 36DOB: 7/26/1977HT: 6-3WT: 220POS: RHP
SV 24ERA 2.01SO 73BB 22WAR 2.8
The grand slam he surrendered to David Ortiz in Game 2 of the ALCS shouldn't change our evaluation of Benoit, as he just turned in his fourth straight season of effective short relief work since Tampa Bay signed him off the scrap heap before 2010.
The Tigers used him judiciously in 2013, bringing him back without any days of rest only 15 times all season, which may be part of why he was throwing harder than ever. He's still a fastball-changeup guy with an average slider he doesn't need very often, and as long as he keeps throwing strikes, as he has the past four years, he can be a 1-WAR reliever who works in leveraged situations.
PLAYER CARD
43Jason Hammel
AGE: 31DOB: 9/2/1982HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: RHP
W-L 7-8ERA 4.97SO 96BB 48WAR 0.0
Hammel was so homer-prone in 2013 that he gave up more bombs in 139 innings than he did in any of the three full seasons he pitched for the Rockies.
His big 2012 season came thanks to heavy use of a two-seamer he'd introduced the previous fall, a low-90s fastball with plus sink that generated a 53 percent ground ball rate. Elbow trouble in 2013 killed his velocity and that two-seam action, reducing his effectiveness at missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground.
His velocity ticked back up in a final-day relief outing and he could have value as a swingman if he can't maintain his stuff in a fifth-starter role.
PLAYER CARD
44Joba Chamerlain
AGE: 31DOB: 9/2/1982HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: RHP
W-L 7-8ERA 4.97SO 96BB 48WAR 0.0
Joba might never have amounted to anything even if the Yankees had done everything right, but it is hard to think of a recent example of a pitcher who's been mishandled to this extent by any club that didn't simultaneously employ Dusty Baker. (Mark Prior waves with his non-throwing hand.)
Chamberlain still has a plus fastball and he'll flash a plus slider that can generate some ugly swings -- when he's not leaving it up over the plate, which he does too often. I think he's a one-year, change-of-scenery candidate for a setup role, a guy who has a good history of at least missing bats and is one grade of command away from being a 1.5-WAR reliever for someone other than the Yanks.
PLAYER CARD
45Bronson Arroyo
AGE: 36DOB: 2/24/1977HT: 6-4WT: 195POS: RHP
W-L 14-12ERA 3.79SO 124BB 34WAR 2.5
There's some value in durability, which Arroyo has, with 32 or more starts in nine straight seasons, including all eight since he moved to hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He's had to ramp up the use of his slider as his velocity has slipped into the upper 80s, averaging about 87 mph the past three years, and his problems with the long ball are only likely to increase as he gets older.
He fills up the strike zone and takes the ball every fifth day, which is somewhat faint praise but still makes him a $2 million to $3 million fifth-starter candidate on a one-year deal.
PLAYER CARD
46Brian Wilson
AGE: 31DOB: 3/16/1982HT: 6-2WT: 203POS: RHP
SV 0ERA 0.66SO 13BB 2WAR 0.6
If you want to give the people their beard and circus, this is your guy. Wilson actually looked very good in his late-season return to action with the Dodgers, throwing as hard as ever (after his second Tommy John surgery), and, in a limited sample, throwing strikes.
He's a solid setup candidate who has that closer aura in case a team wants a backup option for the ninth inning, worth a year (maybe with an option), and $2 million to $3 million.
PLAYER CARD
47Dioner Navarro
AGE: 29DOB: 2/9/84HT: 5-9WT: 205POS: C
AVG .300OBP .365OPS .857HR 13WAR 2.0
Navarro's surprising half-season in Chicago produced 2 WAR, a combination of his unusually high (by his own career norms) BABIP, a career high in homers, a solid walk rate, and above-average throwing.
He's a mediocre pitch-framer and hasn't performed like this since 2008, but would be worth up to $2 million on a one-year deal to be a fringe starter or a heavy-usage backup, given how little there is of value behind the plate right now.
PLAYER CARD
48Corey Hart
AGE: 31DOB: 3/24/82HT: 6-6WT: 235POS: 1B/OF
AVG .270*OBP .334OPS .841HR 30WAR 1.8
*Stats listed above are from 2012 season.
Hart missed all of 2013 after undergoing surgery on both knees, making his availability for full-time duty in 2014 something of a question mark, but making him one of the better high-risk/high-reward plays on the market.
He averaged .279/.343/.514 in his last three seasons in Milwaukee, an offense-first guy who struggles on defense but is very comfortable as the boy in the batter's box, except against right-handed pitchers' sliders, which have always given him fits. There's the risk he won't be able to handle a full season's workload, and the risk that after knee problems he'll lose some or much of his power because he can't fully utilize his lower half, but there's also the possibility that he slugs .475 or better even if it's in somewhat limited duty.
A team like Tampa Bay, with a hole at first and a history of going after guys like this, could see great value on a one-year, $3 million to $4 million deal.
PLAYER CARD
49Grant Balfour
AGE: 35DOB: 12/30/1977HT: 6-2WT: 200POS: RHP
SV 38ERA 2.59SO 72BB 27WAR 1.4
Balfour's been the beneficiary of a huge ballpark and good defense his past few years in Oakland, but he has that Proven Closer[emoji]8482[/emoji] tag and is likely to be treated as such in the market when he's more of a solid middle reliever or setup type.
He has always had a big four-seamer that he could command in and around the zone, but in the past four years, he's gradually shifted from a fastball-only guy to a fastball-slider guy. He'll use the slider as a swing-and-miss pitch by going low and away to right-handed batters, while his hard curveball is his out pitch against lefties; he threw 66 curveballs to left-handed batters in 2013, but didn't allow any of those men to reach on that pitch, generating 13 swings and misses.
Because of the straight fastball, he's a heavy fly ball/line drive guy and likely will look worse in another park or in front of an inferior defense, but he can still provide a half- to a full win of value in a 65-inning relief role.
PLAYER CARD
50Mike Pelfrey
AGE: 33DOB: 6/6/1980HT: 6-4WT: 225POS: RHP
W-L 5-13ERA 5.19SO 101BB 53WAR -0.3
Pelfrey was basically replacement level in 2013, his first full year back after Tommy John surgery, which was by far the worst of his career.
Prior to the injury he'd been durable, if never close to what he was expected to be when he was the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Wichita State. He still works with an above-average fastball and has some sink, although his ground ball rate in Minnesota was a bit higher than his previous career norms.
The hope is that he can recapture that ground ball rate, while retaining his good control, which should get him a year and $2-3 million, although without a viable breaking ball he'll never be more than a fourth starter.
PLAYER CARD
jewbacca
Banned
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I'm not pro, but I believe Buxton will be. Not sure on Sano.
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Jewbacca: Feel free to chime in anytime. More baseball knowledge the better.
I'll say it for the tenth time, I love Tanaka as an elite #2.
I'll say it for the tenth time, I love Tanaka as an elite #2.
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A good friend of mine lives in Japan, and has seen Tanaka pitch "countless times." He claims Tanaka will be more in the mold of Daisuke than Yu. Take that for what its worth.
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Yes, I agree from what I've seen and read. Darvish is the easy comparison, but I don't expect Tanaka to pitch the same or be as good.
More Dice-K or Kuroda.
More Dice-K or Kuroda.
DeadsetAce
Supporter
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red sox made three offers of $14.1M for one year to ellsbury, drew, and napoli 
clearly they only want drew
no offer to salty...which is interesting. figured he would be back since ross can't play a full load.
clearly they only want drew
no offer to salty...which is interesting. figured he would be back since ross can't play a full load.
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red sox made three offers of $14.1M for one year to ellsbury, drew, and napoli
clearly they only want drew
no offer to salty...which is interesting. figured he would be back since ross can't play a full load.
Sox going to try and take McCann from us
DeadsetAce
Supporter
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i hope not...let the yankees over pay for him
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Dude, the disrespect to Ellsbury. I was thinking 5/75 minimum to start.
Drew is not worth $14M-per on any galaxy.
Drew is not worth $14M-per on any galaxy.
Contracts are going to keep going up before they go back down again. MLB is flush with money, $14mm sounded about right for Drew for a year. He stays healthy again, they'll swap him at the deadline for a need and have a cheap replacement.
Reason why they low balled Ellsbury. There's no need for him in their minds. They have a cheap replacement who by all means looks like he's going to be a stud. They know someone is going to vastly overpay for Ellsbury thinking that he's A - healthy and/or B - he'll regain some of that power which he never will. There's a reason they're called career years
Take out that one anomaly of a season and you really have no difference between him going into FA this year and Bourn going into FA last season I think.
Good for Magic. If they want to give him $300mm, by all means go ahead.
The Yanks are damned if they do and damned if they don't but they're taking the right path here in standing pat. There's no other suitor besides the LA teams. Both are going to overpay and one is going to have to get rid of a very good 2B to do so.
Reason why they low balled Ellsbury. There's no need for him in their minds. They have a cheap replacement who by all means looks like he's going to be a stud. They know someone is going to vastly overpay for Ellsbury thinking that he's A - healthy and/or B - he'll regain some of that power which he never will. There's a reason they're called career years
Take out that one anomaly of a season and you really have no difference between him going into FA this year and Bourn going into FA last season I think.
Good for Magic. If they want to give him $300mm, by all means go ahead.
The Yanks are damned if they do and damned if they don't but they're taking the right path here in standing pat. There's no other suitor besides the LA teams. Both are going to overpay and one is going to have to get rid of a very good 2B to do so.
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Magic Johnson was seen leaving a local airport and Robby Cano about an hour after him
Thought the Dodgers said they had no interest in Cano?
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Makes little sense after Guerrero.
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I'll be impressed if they secure Tanaka and Price.
Kershaw, Greinke, Price, Tanaka, Ryu.
Kershaw, Greinke, Price, Tanaka, Ryu.
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Numerous teams. Yanks, Dodgers, etc. He's a strong #2.
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He's going to cost more than Darvish's 60/52.
Another reason I'd stay away.
Yea MMG, that's a part of it. But their guy (Kuroda) is still debating whether or not to return to Japan and retire after a year.
Buy-low free agent options.
'Victims' of the qualifying offer.
This was interesting...
Cardinals should target Tulowitzki.
Don't fear a long-term Cano deal.
Boston being unfair to Torey Lovullo.
As free agency opens to every team, focus will center on stars such as Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury, and rightfully so. The possibility of them leaving the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees is exciting to think about, especially if your favorite team needs help up the middle.
But there are players hanging out in the weeds who can be just as influential, and will be signed early in the process. Many focused on Boston's signing of Shane Victorino last year, but the Sox also signed David Ross, Jonny Gomes and Koji Uehara, and all before Christmas. The Pirates signed Russell Martin, whom the Yankees didn't even consider re-signing, before December. And the Rays snapped up James Loney, who went from having the worst season of his career in 2012 to the best season of his career in 2013, in December's first week.
Bargains will abound this winter as well, and these five players have a chance to be five great buy-low candidates.
Carlos Ruiz, C
After a breakout campaign in 2012 in which he posted a .325/.394/.540, things fell apart for Ruiz in 2013. He started the season late after his suspension for banned stimulants, and his batting line fell to .268/.320/.368. His walk rate also fell off, and his power completely disappeared.
On the plus side, many of his ratios were positive. He kept his strikeouts in line, and his swinging strike rate was as low as ever (4.6 percent). He also chased fewer balls out of the zone than he had previously. In addition, Ruiz had a history of hitting well even before 2012. From 2009-2011, the Panama native hit .281/.376/.417, which is 105 points higher in OPS than he had in 2013.
In other words, Ruiz -- who has always been solid, if not stellar, defensively -- doesn't need to hit like he did in 2012 to be a big asset for someone behind the plate. He turns 35 in January, but he wasn't given a qualifying offer, which means he could be a bargain on a short-term deal.
Chris Young, CF
An All-Star in 2010, Young's performance has trended steadily downhill since, to the point that he wasn't even a full-time starter with the Oakland A's this past season. At this point, we're probably past the point that Young is someone who you want starting 150 times a season, but he still does a lot of things well.
He still has a very healthy walk percentage, is a good baserunner and has good range in the outfield, with the ability to roam all three outfield spots (though his arm is a little weak for right field). He also still hits lefties well. Over the past three years, his 122 wRC+ against southpaws ranks 26th out of 69 qualified outfielders.
He was down from most of these levels in 2013, particularly against lefties, against whom he posted just a 99 wRC+, and he is an increasing liability against right-handeders. But he will be just 30 next season, and given that he still excels in certain facets of the game, could be a valuable fourth outfielder with the potential for more.
Chris Capuano, LHP
It's hard to find pitchers who rack up a lot of strikeouts, particularly those who throw with their left hand. As such, Capuano provides a valuable skill. His strikeout percentage was down a little this past season, but his velocity didn't decline, and his swinging strike rates were within the limits he had established in the previous two seasons.
In fact, his whiff/swing rates were up for his changeup and slider. In addition, over the past three seasons, he has been one of the more efficient pitchers among those who will hit free agency this winter. Capuano has had his share of injuries, but he has still racked up 490 innings pitched over the past three seasons while posting a strikeout/walk ratio of 3.14. For context, that's better than Tim Lincecum (2.39), who just got a $35 million deal.
Manny Parra, LHP
Parra has always had the pure stuff needed to dominate, but command issues have plagued him. In three years as a starter, he posted a 5.21 ERA and walked 215 batters in 428 innings. His strikeouts were there, but the walks led to an insanely high WHIP (1.659) that is simply untenable for a starting pitcher.
He vanished from the majors in 2011 before rebranding himself exclusively as a reliever in 2012. And from a rate perspective, things weren't much better. His WHIP was still higher than 1.6, and his walk rate was the highest of his career to date.
Last year, pitching for the Cincinnati Reds, something clicked. Not only was he able to limit his walks, but his strikeouts went through the roof. In addition, he was able to post a 3.43 K/BB against right-handed batters (he had never been better than 1.82 before 2013). And with a strikeout rate of 30 percent against lefties the past two seasons, Parra could end up being a pretty valuable weapon late in games.
Chad Gaudin, RHP
When choosing a free-agent starter from the group of non-elites, you're generally left with two options: dependable innings eater or potential lightning in a bottle. Gaudin would definitely be in the latter category.
He hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season since 2009, which was also the last season before 2013 that he was utilized as a starting pitcher. There may be something to that -- he has had injuries to his foot, hip, elbow and shoulder, and he even ended last year on the disabled list with carpal tunnel syndrome. But he also flashed some pretty good stuff when he did pitch last season.
He allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 starts last season, and he struck out 60 batters in 66 1/3 innings. For the season, his 21.7 percent strikeout rate ranked 36th out of the 153 pitchers who tossed 90 or more innings. The track record is extremely thin, and he has rarely been durable, but he may have rediscovered himself last season, and it probably won't cost much to see if he can be duplicate the success in 2014.
But there are players hanging out in the weeds who can be just as influential, and will be signed early in the process. Many focused on Boston's signing of Shane Victorino last year, but the Sox also signed David Ross, Jonny Gomes and Koji Uehara, and all before Christmas. The Pirates signed Russell Martin, whom the Yankees didn't even consider re-signing, before December. And the Rays snapped up James Loney, who went from having the worst season of his career in 2012 to the best season of his career in 2013, in December's first week.
Bargains will abound this winter as well, and these five players have a chance to be five great buy-low candidates.
Carlos Ruiz, C
After a breakout campaign in 2012 in which he posted a .325/.394/.540, things fell apart for Ruiz in 2013. He started the season late after his suspension for banned stimulants, and his batting line fell to .268/.320/.368. His walk rate also fell off, and his power completely disappeared.
On the plus side, many of his ratios were positive. He kept his strikeouts in line, and his swinging strike rate was as low as ever (4.6 percent). He also chased fewer balls out of the zone than he had previously. In addition, Ruiz had a history of hitting well even before 2012. From 2009-2011, the Panama native hit .281/.376/.417, which is 105 points higher in OPS than he had in 2013.
In other words, Ruiz -- who has always been solid, if not stellar, defensively -- doesn't need to hit like he did in 2012 to be a big asset for someone behind the plate. He turns 35 in January, but he wasn't given a qualifying offer, which means he could be a bargain on a short-term deal.
Chris Young, CF
An All-Star in 2010, Young's performance has trended steadily downhill since, to the point that he wasn't even a full-time starter with the Oakland A's this past season. At this point, we're probably past the point that Young is someone who you want starting 150 times a season, but he still does a lot of things well.
He still has a very healthy walk percentage, is a good baserunner and has good range in the outfield, with the ability to roam all three outfield spots (though his arm is a little weak for right field). He also still hits lefties well. Over the past three years, his 122 wRC+ against southpaws ranks 26th out of 69 qualified outfielders.
He was down from most of these levels in 2013, particularly against lefties, against whom he posted just a 99 wRC+, and he is an increasing liability against right-handeders. But he will be just 30 next season, and given that he still excels in certain facets of the game, could be a valuable fourth outfielder with the potential for more.
Chris Capuano, LHP
It's hard to find pitchers who rack up a lot of strikeouts, particularly those who throw with their left hand. As such, Capuano provides a valuable skill. His strikeout percentage was down a little this past season, but his velocity didn't decline, and his swinging strike rates were within the limits he had established in the previous two seasons.
In fact, his whiff/swing rates were up for his changeup and slider. In addition, over the past three seasons, he has been one of the more efficient pitchers among those who will hit free agency this winter. Capuano has had his share of injuries, but he has still racked up 490 innings pitched over the past three seasons while posting a strikeout/walk ratio of 3.14. For context, that's better than Tim Lincecum (2.39), who just got a $35 million deal.
Manny Parra, LHP
Parra has always had the pure stuff needed to dominate, but command issues have plagued him. In three years as a starter, he posted a 5.21 ERA and walked 215 batters in 428 innings. His strikeouts were there, but the walks led to an insanely high WHIP (1.659) that is simply untenable for a starting pitcher.
He vanished from the majors in 2011 before rebranding himself exclusively as a reliever in 2012. And from a rate perspective, things weren't much better. His WHIP was still higher than 1.6, and his walk rate was the highest of his career to date.
Last year, pitching for the Cincinnati Reds, something clicked. Not only was he able to limit his walks, but his strikeouts went through the roof. In addition, he was able to post a 3.43 K/BB against right-handed batters (he had never been better than 1.82 before 2013). And with a strikeout rate of 30 percent against lefties the past two seasons, Parra could end up being a pretty valuable weapon late in games.
Chad Gaudin, RHP
When choosing a free-agent starter from the group of non-elites, you're generally left with two options: dependable innings eater or potential lightning in a bottle. Gaudin would definitely be in the latter category.
He hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season since 2009, which was also the last season before 2013 that he was utilized as a starting pitcher. There may be something to that -- he has had injuries to his foot, hip, elbow and shoulder, and he even ended last year on the disabled list with carpal tunnel syndrome. But he also flashed some pretty good stuff when he did pitch last season.
He allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 12 starts last season, and he struck out 60 batters in 66 1/3 innings. For the season, his 21.7 percent strikeout rate ranked 36th out of the 153 pitchers who tossed 90 or more innings. The track record is extremely thin, and he has rarely been durable, but he may have rediscovered himself last season, and it probably won't cost much to see if he can be duplicate the success in 2014.
'Victims' of the qualifying offer.
There are always unexpected consequences with each labor agreement, and the most notable shift under the current deal is the draft-pick compensation drag: So many teams have become fully invested in drafting and developing that they shy away from some of the free agents who cost a team a high draft pick.
Kyle Lohse got caught in the draft-pick vise last year, and so did Michael Bourn and Rafael Soriano. For some free agents, getting a qualifying offer from their current teams, along with the reality of the draft-pick compensation, is similar to an NFL player getting a franchise tag because it undercuts the player's ability to have a free market.
Thirteen players got qualifying offers Monday, and the potential draft-pick drag won't hurt some of them because they are elite free agents, the best of the best -- Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann.
Some free agents may be impacted somewhat because some teams are philosophically opposed to giving up draft picks and won't consider the likes of Shin-Soo Choo, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, but those players are expected to make out just fine. (A couple of executives estimated Monday that Choo will wind up with a five-year deal in the range of $15 million per year). Carlos Beltran may have his market limited in a more significant way by his age and his defense. Some evaluators say that his range has diminished dramatically in recent seasons -- his UZR/150 ranking was the second-worst among all MLB outfielders in 2013 -- so the offers to him may mostly come from American League teams who could use him at DH.
Hiroki Kuroda, who got a qualifying offer from the Yankees, is expected to re-sign with them or return to Japan, so it won't be a big issue for him either way.
The most interesting case of the players given qualifying offers might be that of Nelson Cruz. He is 33 years old and he served a 50-game PED suspension in 2013, two factors that could chase away some teams, beyond the draft pick compensation now tied to him. But remember that at a time when offense is diminishing and right-handed power hitters are scarce, Cruz is one of the better right-handed home run hitters in the game, having hit 27 homers in 109 games this year after hitting 33, 22, 29 and 24 homers in the previous four seasons. He is well-liked and regarded as a good teammate.
Will some teams desperate for power, for offense -- the Phillies, for example -- step out and give him a strong multiyear offer? The Phillies have a protected first-round pick (top 10), which means they would have to surrender only a second-round pick for signing Cruz or anyone else who received a qualifying offer.
Cruz is expected to decline the qualifying offer, writes Jeff Wilson.
Curtis Granderson clubbed 84 homers in 2011 and 2012, more than Miguel Cabrera, so it figures that some other teams will take a shot at him, partly because of his reputation as being one of baseball's best citizens. Granderson, an Illinois native, would be a great fit for the Cubs or White Sox, two teams that have their first-round picks protected.
But there are a handful of players who may have their free agency completely undercut by the tender offers this year, in the way that Lohse was crushed last winter:
• Stephen Drew: He played spectacular defense in the postseason and rival evaluators say they don't think that Xander Bogaerts, as great as he looks, can be a solution at shortstop on a full-time basis. If the Red Sox can keep Drew for one more year, he'll buy them some time. As one executive said about the qualifying offer, "[For a big-market team] there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal."
There is speculation that the Mets could give up a draft pick to sign Drew, but the Mets' planning likely is geared to 2015 rather than 2014 because of the injury to starter Matt Harvey. They are not expected to pursue Drew.
• Mike Napoli: Teams shied away from Napoli last winter because of his hip trouble, and Napoli had a good season, transitioning well to first base. It may be that Napoli wants to stay with the Red Sox, anyway, given his experience in 2013.
• Kendrys Morales: He is 30 years old, and after missing most of two seasons because of a horrific ankle injury, he came back to hit 22 homers in 2012 and 23 in 2013, almost exclusively as a DH. It's possible that, like Cruz, he will benefit from the desperation need for power-hitting in the sport, but a lot of teams will run in the other direction because they prefer positional flexibility or don't want to give up a draft pick.
It may be that Morales' best money would come from the Mariners, perhaps with that one-year qualifying offer.
The Pirates didn't make a qualifying offer to A.J. Burnett, but that doesn't mean he won't be back, writes Jenn Menendez.
The Red Sox made offers to three players, but not to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
As expected, the Yankees made qualifying offers to three different players. The Yankees must find the right amount to keep Cano, writes Joel Sherman.
• Speaking of the Yankees, I think we may have gotten some insight into the Yankees' mindset going into the latest round of the Cano negotiations from the Derek Jeter talks last weekend.
Jeter held a player option for $9.5 million, and his agent, Casey Close, presumably informed the Yankees that they intended to opt out of the contract, and asked for more money in a new deal.
If the Yankees had taken a hard-line business approach, they could have simply told Jeter: No, because you played in 17 games this year and hit .190, and because we have no idea what you might contribute in 2014, when you turn 40. If you want to test those numbers on the open market, feel free, and we're here when you want to talk again.
But the Yankees relented and gave him more money, and you'd have to assume that Close was able to exercise the one piece of leverage available to him: After the Yankees failed to make the playoffs in 2013, a year in which Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte retired and TV ratings dropped, the last thing they want is another tough negotiation with the future Hall of Famer.
The Yankees -- perhaps feeling the pressure from a rough 2013 -- capitulated.
The same sort of dynamic could be in play with the Cano talks, which broke off last spring with the Yankees offering something in the range of $160 million to $165 million and Cano asking for $300 million. My guess: The Yankees will wind up settling on an eight-year deal in the $200 million range.
Around the league
• Tigers GM David Dombrowski had heard from a lot of folks about the intelligence of Brad Ausmus, so the GM didn't go into his conversations with Ausmus wondering about his answers about strategic moves.
Dombrowski explained on Monday that he was curious about how someone as bright as Ausmus would communicate -- the words he used, and whether his intelligence might be something of a barrier.
"He presented himself in a down-to-earth fashion," Dombrowski said, recalling how he has been around other smart people who struggle to communicate with others. "[Ausmus] was very clear and well-spoken."
A wise person once said to me that the smartest people are those who don't need to show you they are smart. I covered Ausmus in his first years in the big leagues, when he played for the Padres in 1993 and 1994, and this is the way he's always been. It was a strength for him as a catcher in dealing with pitchers, and it will continue to be a strength for him as a manager.
• There is a lot of head-scratching in the sport about why the Cubs or Mariners waited so long to interview Ausmus, and didn't rush to hire him.
"You have a Hall of Fame-caliber general manager in Dombrowski, who had no previous ties to Ausmus at all, and his team was in the playoffs for a lot of October," said one evaluator, "and he saw enough in him to move fast. Why didn't somebody else? It doesn't make sense. There aren't a lot of great manager candidates right now."
Ausmus wanted to interview for the Cubs' job as soon as it came open, more than a month ago, but he wasn't brought into the process until recently.
The Mariners have narrowed their search. Chip Hale is said to have a good shot to get this job, and he'd be a good fit.
• The Diamondbacks continue to be a natural fit for trade talks about Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija (which stalled before the July 31 deadline) and Cubs outfielder Nate Schierholtz. Arizona has surplus in the middle infield and in center field, and other teams say they are willing to discuss D-backs lefty Tyler Skaggs -- but not right-hander Archie Bradley.
The Rays will be weighing offers for David Price this winter, and they have extensively scouted the Diamondbacks' farm system. But if Arizona (or just about any team) pursued a deal for Price, they'd want to be able to sign him to a long-term contract -- and that may simply be too expensive, given that Price will command a deal in the range of $150 million to $175 million.
• Heard this prediction from two rival officials Monday: Brian McCann will sign with the Red Sox. "They need catching help now," said one official, "and he could do that for a couple of years and then move to DH after David Ortiz finishes."
And I wrote here last week how David Ross would be excellent recruiter, as a longtime friend of McCann.
• There are multiple teams interested in Tim Hudson, for three reasons:
A. He demonstrated last year that he can still be an effective pitcher, posting a 3.97 ERA in 21 starts before he got hurt.
B. He won't be that expensive, given that he is 38 years old; his next deal will almost certainly be for one or two years.
C. He is regarded as a tremendous person and teammate, someone who can help lead a staff.
The Braves have made an offer to Tim Hudson.
• Joe Nathan is the best of the relievers available, so it figures that he'll wind up getting a good two-year deal from some contender. Detroit could be a natural fit -- although the Tigers have other looming payroll issues, with Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer looking for big extensions.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Orioles declined their option on Alexi Casilla.
2. The Red Sox could land Giancarlo Stanton with a bold trade.
3. The Brewers added a utility man.
4. There's a market for a right-handed bat like Paul Konerko's.
5. The Rockies picked up Matt Belisle's option.
6. Ryan Vogelsong became a free agent.
NL East
• Matt Williams has plans to rein in Bryce Harper.
• Bronson Arroyo would definitely consider the Mets.
AL Central
• Bullpen and speed are atop the Tigers' wish list, writes Tony Paul.
• The Royals gave a qualifying offer to Ervin Santana.
• The Indians want to keep Ubaldo Jimenez. I've heard Jimenez would prefer to pitch in another place.
Kyle Lohse got caught in the draft-pick vise last year, and so did Michael Bourn and Rafael Soriano. For some free agents, getting a qualifying offer from their current teams, along with the reality of the draft-pick compensation, is similar to an NFL player getting a franchise tag because it undercuts the player's ability to have a free market.
Thirteen players got qualifying offers Monday, and the potential draft-pick drag won't hurt some of them because they are elite free agents, the best of the best -- Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann.
Some free agents may be impacted somewhat because some teams are philosophically opposed to giving up draft picks and won't consider the likes of Shin-Soo Choo, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, but those players are expected to make out just fine. (A couple of executives estimated Monday that Choo will wind up with a five-year deal in the range of $15 million per year). Carlos Beltran may have his market limited in a more significant way by his age and his defense. Some evaluators say that his range has diminished dramatically in recent seasons -- his UZR/150 ranking was the second-worst among all MLB outfielders in 2013 -- so the offers to him may mostly come from American League teams who could use him at DH.
Hiroki Kuroda, who got a qualifying offer from the Yankees, is expected to re-sign with them or return to Japan, so it won't be a big issue for him either way.
The most interesting case of the players given qualifying offers might be that of Nelson Cruz. He is 33 years old and he served a 50-game PED suspension in 2013, two factors that could chase away some teams, beyond the draft pick compensation now tied to him. But remember that at a time when offense is diminishing and right-handed power hitters are scarce, Cruz is one of the better right-handed home run hitters in the game, having hit 27 homers in 109 games this year after hitting 33, 22, 29 and 24 homers in the previous four seasons. He is well-liked and regarded as a good teammate.
Will some teams desperate for power, for offense -- the Phillies, for example -- step out and give him a strong multiyear offer? The Phillies have a protected first-round pick (top 10), which means they would have to surrender only a second-round pick for signing Cruz or anyone else who received a qualifying offer.
Cruz is expected to decline the qualifying offer, writes Jeff Wilson.
Curtis Granderson clubbed 84 homers in 2011 and 2012, more than Miguel Cabrera, so it figures that some other teams will take a shot at him, partly because of his reputation as being one of baseball's best citizens. Granderson, an Illinois native, would be a great fit for the Cubs or White Sox, two teams that have their first-round picks protected.
But there are a handful of players who may have their free agency completely undercut by the tender offers this year, in the way that Lohse was crushed last winter:
• Stephen Drew: He played spectacular defense in the postseason and rival evaluators say they don't think that Xander Bogaerts, as great as he looks, can be a solution at shortstop on a full-time basis. If the Red Sox can keep Drew for one more year, he'll buy them some time. As one executive said about the qualifying offer, "[For a big-market team] there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal."
There is speculation that the Mets could give up a draft pick to sign Drew, but the Mets' planning likely is geared to 2015 rather than 2014 because of the injury to starter Matt Harvey. They are not expected to pursue Drew.
• Mike Napoli: Teams shied away from Napoli last winter because of his hip trouble, and Napoli had a good season, transitioning well to first base. It may be that Napoli wants to stay with the Red Sox, anyway, given his experience in 2013.
• Kendrys Morales: He is 30 years old, and after missing most of two seasons because of a horrific ankle injury, he came back to hit 22 homers in 2012 and 23 in 2013, almost exclusively as a DH. It's possible that, like Cruz, he will benefit from the desperation need for power-hitting in the sport, but a lot of teams will run in the other direction because they prefer positional flexibility or don't want to give up a draft pick.
It may be that Morales' best money would come from the Mariners, perhaps with that one-year qualifying offer.
The Pirates didn't make a qualifying offer to A.J. Burnett, but that doesn't mean he won't be back, writes Jenn Menendez.
The Red Sox made offers to three players, but not to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
As expected, the Yankees made qualifying offers to three different players. The Yankees must find the right amount to keep Cano, writes Joel Sherman.
• Speaking of the Yankees, I think we may have gotten some insight into the Yankees' mindset going into the latest round of the Cano negotiations from the Derek Jeter talks last weekend.
Jeter held a player option for $9.5 million, and his agent, Casey Close, presumably informed the Yankees that they intended to opt out of the contract, and asked for more money in a new deal.
If the Yankees had taken a hard-line business approach, they could have simply told Jeter: No, because you played in 17 games this year and hit .190, and because we have no idea what you might contribute in 2014, when you turn 40. If you want to test those numbers on the open market, feel free, and we're here when you want to talk again.
But the Yankees relented and gave him more money, and you'd have to assume that Close was able to exercise the one piece of leverage available to him: After the Yankees failed to make the playoffs in 2013, a year in which Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte retired and TV ratings dropped, the last thing they want is another tough negotiation with the future Hall of Famer.
The Yankees -- perhaps feeling the pressure from a rough 2013 -- capitulated.
The same sort of dynamic could be in play with the Cano talks, which broke off last spring with the Yankees offering something in the range of $160 million to $165 million and Cano asking for $300 million. My guess: The Yankees will wind up settling on an eight-year deal in the $200 million range.
Around the league
• Tigers GM David Dombrowski had heard from a lot of folks about the intelligence of Brad Ausmus, so the GM didn't go into his conversations with Ausmus wondering about his answers about strategic moves.
Dombrowski explained on Monday that he was curious about how someone as bright as Ausmus would communicate -- the words he used, and whether his intelligence might be something of a barrier.
"He presented himself in a down-to-earth fashion," Dombrowski said, recalling how he has been around other smart people who struggle to communicate with others. "[Ausmus] was very clear and well-spoken."
A wise person once said to me that the smartest people are those who don't need to show you they are smart. I covered Ausmus in his first years in the big leagues, when he played for the Padres in 1993 and 1994, and this is the way he's always been. It was a strength for him as a catcher in dealing with pitchers, and it will continue to be a strength for him as a manager.
• There is a lot of head-scratching in the sport about why the Cubs or Mariners waited so long to interview Ausmus, and didn't rush to hire him.
"You have a Hall of Fame-caliber general manager in Dombrowski, who had no previous ties to Ausmus at all, and his team was in the playoffs for a lot of October," said one evaluator, "and he saw enough in him to move fast. Why didn't somebody else? It doesn't make sense. There aren't a lot of great manager candidates right now."
Ausmus wanted to interview for the Cubs' job as soon as it came open, more than a month ago, but he wasn't brought into the process until recently.
The Mariners have narrowed their search. Chip Hale is said to have a good shot to get this job, and he'd be a good fit.
• The Diamondbacks continue to be a natural fit for trade talks about Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija (which stalled before the July 31 deadline) and Cubs outfielder Nate Schierholtz. Arizona has surplus in the middle infield and in center field, and other teams say they are willing to discuss D-backs lefty Tyler Skaggs -- but not right-hander Archie Bradley.
The Rays will be weighing offers for David Price this winter, and they have extensively scouted the Diamondbacks' farm system. But if Arizona (or just about any team) pursued a deal for Price, they'd want to be able to sign him to a long-term contract -- and that may simply be too expensive, given that Price will command a deal in the range of $150 million to $175 million.
• Heard this prediction from two rival officials Monday: Brian McCann will sign with the Red Sox. "They need catching help now," said one official, "and he could do that for a couple of years and then move to DH after David Ortiz finishes."
And I wrote here last week how David Ross would be excellent recruiter, as a longtime friend of McCann.
• There are multiple teams interested in Tim Hudson, for three reasons:
A. He demonstrated last year that he can still be an effective pitcher, posting a 3.97 ERA in 21 starts before he got hurt.
B. He won't be that expensive, given that he is 38 years old; his next deal will almost certainly be for one or two years.
C. He is regarded as a tremendous person and teammate, someone who can help lead a staff.
The Braves have made an offer to Tim Hudson.
• Joe Nathan is the best of the relievers available, so it figures that he'll wind up getting a good two-year deal from some contender. Detroit could be a natural fit -- although the Tigers have other looming payroll issues, with Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer looking for big extensions.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Orioles declined their option on Alexi Casilla.
2. The Red Sox could land Giancarlo Stanton with a bold trade.
3. The Brewers added a utility man.
4. There's a market for a right-handed bat like Paul Konerko's.
5. The Rockies picked up Matt Belisle's option.
6. Ryan Vogelsong became a free agent.
NL East
• Matt Williams has plans to rein in Bryce Harper.
• Bronson Arroyo would definitely consider the Mets.
AL Central
• Bullpen and speed are atop the Tigers' wish list, writes Tony Paul.
• The Royals gave a qualifying offer to Ervin Santana.
• The Indians want to keep Ubaldo Jimenez. I've heard Jimenez would prefer to pitch in another place.
This was interesting...
Cardinals should target Tulowitzki.
While watching the Boston Red Sox celebrate wasn't exactly the way the St. Louis Cardinals hoped the 2013 season would end, the year was still an overall success for the National League champs. And though it would be easy for Cardinals GM John Mozeliak to feel satisfied with his club, complacency is one of the biggest enemies of excellent teams, and one of St. Louis' primary goals this offseason needs to be fixing its hole at shortstop.
St. Louis is one of the model organizations in baseball, but shortstop was a constant issue for the Cardinals and one that they did little to remedy. While it was bad luck that Rafael Furcal needed Tommy John surgery and the missed season, the club didn't do much to put together a good Plan B. The Plan B it went with, in this case, was hoping that former first-round pick Pete Kozma had solved his primary weakness -- hitting the ball.
Kozma played solid defense at short but hit just .217/.275/.273, and no amount of great defense can overcome that. The Cardinals may have successfully made it to Game 6 of the World Series with Kozma playing shortstop, but they made it there despite him, not because of him. Teams that accept weaknesses or being "good enough" are teams that ultimately encounter nasty doses of reality.
The good news is that the Cardinals are not without resources. The team is financially successful, has a deep farm system and has more starting pitchers than it knows what to do with. There are many potential solutions at shortstop, as outlined in the list below, including an ideal scenario that Mozeliak should be trying to make happen.
The grand slam: Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki is the best, most realistic shortstop addition available for the Cardinals (i.e., no "Jurassic Park"-esque experiments with Honus Wagner DNA) but, not surprisingly, the toughest one to pull off. Colorado ownership has expressed a desire to hang onto Tulowitzki (and Carlos Gonzalez) and increase payroll, but the Rockies are realistically not looking like a team that's going to be dangerous in 2014 or 2015, and the Cards have the need and the arms to make Colorado reconsider.
[+] Enlarge
Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports
Kozma was 0-for-10 in the World Series, and his Game 1 error opened the floodgates for Boston.
Tulo is owed a good chunk of money, but in the current climate, seven years and $130 million (with a club option/buyout for an eighth year) is hardly a scary wad of dough. That makes his contract a fair price on the open market if he averages 3.2 WAR or so a season over the course of his remaining contract. The ZiPS projection system has Tulo averaging 4 WAR per season despite his mean expectation for games played to max out at 129. All told, ZiPS estimates his market value at $161 million, meaning that he's likely to be safely worth his contract.
While the contract means that the Cardinals shouldn't simply throw all of their prospects at the Rockies, it does mean that they'll have to give up at least one of their exciting, non-Michael Wacha young pitchers, such as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez. The latter two make the most sense to trade because a terrific young starter in the bullpen is a waste; when the Tampa Bay Rays have starting pitchers coming up through the ranks, they don't send the excess to the pen -- they wring maximum value from other teams. Tulowitzki is one of those players you can call "maximum value."
One of the difficulties the Cardinals have in terms of improving is that they're already both good and deep at most positions. Shortstop is the position the Cardinals at which they can most easily make a major upgrade, and getting one of the best shortstops in baseball is the most sensible way for St. Louis to keep teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds playing catch-up.
The three-run homer: Jurickson Profar
We've gone down this road before in a slightly different form, but a Cardinals-Rangers match still makes sense for both teams. The Rangers have a logjam in the middle infield, with Elvis Andrus signed until 2022, Ian Kinsler through 2017 and Rougned Odor coming up quickly behind Profar.
While Profar wasn't great in his debut, he was just 20 years old, and he still projects to be a star. It would take a player of special value to part with one of the team's stable of young arms, but Profar is worth it.
Double down the line: Jhonny Peralta
Peralta became a whole lot more interesting as a free agent once the Detroit Tigers declined to make a qualifying offer. While Peralta was mixed up in the Biogenesis scandal, it would be a mistake to overrate the difference it would make in his play going forward. After all, Peralta's suspension wasn't for an in-season drug test but from older drug use that was uncovered, meaning that Peralta's been tested for drugs several times since then, as required under MLB's CBA.
[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/USA TODAY Sports
Peralta, who would not cost the Cardinals a draft pick, could be a good fit in St. Louis.
He has always gotten an unfair rap for his defense and is more than adequate at short. Plus, he managed to hit .303/.358/.457 in 2013. If the rest of baseball shies away from Peralta, it's a good opportunity for the Cardinals.
The long single: J.J. Hardy
Hardy is due $7.9 million in 2014 and will be a free agent next winter, so any of the big-name prospects are out of the question for what would be a one-season rental. But if the Baltimore Orioles are feeling good about Manny Machado's recovery and think he can handle shortstop, a trade for someone such as Lance Lynn (or a second-tier prospect like Tim ****ey) could benefit both franchises. (It's probably a year too late to get the O's -- or anyone -- excited about David Freese.)
Given the likely demands of the Orioles and Hardy's contract expiring after the season, bringing in the two-time reigning AL Gold Glove shortstop would be a significant upgrade -- but a short-term one -- and the Cardinals would be right back in the same position for 2015.
Infield hit: Stephen Drew
Drew had a lousy postseason and was given a qualifying offer, so he'd cost the Cards a draft pick. That said, he's also a solidly above-average shortstop, both offensively and defensively, and comes with a much smaller price tag than Tulowitzki, both in terms of prospects and dollars.
What makes Drew one of the lesser options is simply the likelihood that he returns to the Red Sox, even with a full-time job not completely assured. Like Hardy, Drew would be a short-term fix, and the Cardinals will still need to emphasize developing a shortstop.
Hit and run: Greg Garcia
Garcia, who was Kolten Wong's double-play partner at the University of Hawaii, is by no means a blue-chip prospect, but the 24-year-old recovered from a rough start at Triple-A Memphis to post a .377 OBP for the season. If the Cardinals go with an in-house solution, why not experiment with a shortstop who has actual experience? He can't be worse than Kozma.
The sac fly: Ryan Jackson
Jackson's .278/.352/.346 line in the Pacific Coast League doesn't exactly cause much in the way of excitement, but he's A-Rod in his prime compared to Kozma's .232/.292/.355 line in Triple-A. Jackson and Garcia split reps at Memphis this season, and while the latter offers a little more offensive upside, Jackson has a better defensive rep.
The weak grounder: Daniel Descalso
Descalso has had periods in which he's been interesting with the bat, but he's probably not good enough to be anything more than a decent backup at short and without the interesting upside that either Garcia or Jackson could have there. Descalso should be a valuable role player, a guy who can fill in anywhere in the infield, with a lefty bat that has some occasional pop. That said, he would be miscast as a full-time shortstop.
The strikeout: Pete Kozma
Kozma's likely to be a little better in 2014 than he was in 2013 -- the ZiPS projection system has him improving to a .220/.276/.304 line, enough to bring him above replacement level by a hair. While the Cardinals can rightfully claim that they couldn't just magically come up with a shortstop replacement in the middle of the World Series, that excuse won't work in the winter.
St. Louis is one of the model organizations in baseball, but shortstop was a constant issue for the Cardinals and one that they did little to remedy. While it was bad luck that Rafael Furcal needed Tommy John surgery and the missed season, the club didn't do much to put together a good Plan B. The Plan B it went with, in this case, was hoping that former first-round pick Pete Kozma had solved his primary weakness -- hitting the ball.
Kozma played solid defense at short but hit just .217/.275/.273, and no amount of great defense can overcome that. The Cardinals may have successfully made it to Game 6 of the World Series with Kozma playing shortstop, but they made it there despite him, not because of him. Teams that accept weaknesses or being "good enough" are teams that ultimately encounter nasty doses of reality.
The good news is that the Cardinals are not without resources. The team is financially successful, has a deep farm system and has more starting pitchers than it knows what to do with. There are many potential solutions at shortstop, as outlined in the list below, including an ideal scenario that Mozeliak should be trying to make happen.
The grand slam: Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki is the best, most realistic shortstop addition available for the Cardinals (i.e., no "Jurassic Park"-esque experiments with Honus Wagner DNA) but, not surprisingly, the toughest one to pull off. Colorado ownership has expressed a desire to hang onto Tulowitzki (and Carlos Gonzalez) and increase payroll, but the Rockies are realistically not looking like a team that's going to be dangerous in 2014 or 2015, and the Cards have the need and the arms to make Colorado reconsider.
[+] Enlarge
Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports
Kozma was 0-for-10 in the World Series, and his Game 1 error opened the floodgates for Boston.
Tulo is owed a good chunk of money, but in the current climate, seven years and $130 million (with a club option/buyout for an eighth year) is hardly a scary wad of dough. That makes his contract a fair price on the open market if he averages 3.2 WAR or so a season over the course of his remaining contract. The ZiPS projection system has Tulo averaging 4 WAR per season despite his mean expectation for games played to max out at 129. All told, ZiPS estimates his market value at $161 million, meaning that he's likely to be safely worth his contract.
While the contract means that the Cardinals shouldn't simply throw all of their prospects at the Rockies, it does mean that they'll have to give up at least one of their exciting, non-Michael Wacha young pitchers, such as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez. The latter two make the most sense to trade because a terrific young starter in the bullpen is a waste; when the Tampa Bay Rays have starting pitchers coming up through the ranks, they don't send the excess to the pen -- they wring maximum value from other teams. Tulowitzki is one of those players you can call "maximum value."
One of the difficulties the Cardinals have in terms of improving is that they're already both good and deep at most positions. Shortstop is the position the Cardinals at which they can most easily make a major upgrade, and getting one of the best shortstops in baseball is the most sensible way for St. Louis to keep teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds playing catch-up.
The three-run homer: Jurickson Profar
We've gone down this road before in a slightly different form, but a Cardinals-Rangers match still makes sense for both teams. The Rangers have a logjam in the middle infield, with Elvis Andrus signed until 2022, Ian Kinsler through 2017 and Rougned Odor coming up quickly behind Profar.
While Profar wasn't great in his debut, he was just 20 years old, and he still projects to be a star. It would take a player of special value to part with one of the team's stable of young arms, but Profar is worth it.
Double down the line: Jhonny Peralta
Peralta became a whole lot more interesting as a free agent once the Detroit Tigers declined to make a qualifying offer. While Peralta was mixed up in the Biogenesis scandal, it would be a mistake to overrate the difference it would make in his play going forward. After all, Peralta's suspension wasn't for an in-season drug test but from older drug use that was uncovered, meaning that Peralta's been tested for drugs several times since then, as required under MLB's CBA.
[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/USA TODAY Sports
Peralta, who would not cost the Cardinals a draft pick, could be a good fit in St. Louis.
He has always gotten an unfair rap for his defense and is more than adequate at short. Plus, he managed to hit .303/.358/.457 in 2013. If the rest of baseball shies away from Peralta, it's a good opportunity for the Cardinals.
The long single: J.J. Hardy
Hardy is due $7.9 million in 2014 and will be a free agent next winter, so any of the big-name prospects are out of the question for what would be a one-season rental. But if the Baltimore Orioles are feeling good about Manny Machado's recovery and think he can handle shortstop, a trade for someone such as Lance Lynn (or a second-tier prospect like Tim ****ey) could benefit both franchises. (It's probably a year too late to get the O's -- or anyone -- excited about David Freese.)
Given the likely demands of the Orioles and Hardy's contract expiring after the season, bringing in the two-time reigning AL Gold Glove shortstop would be a significant upgrade -- but a short-term one -- and the Cardinals would be right back in the same position for 2015.
Infield hit: Stephen Drew
Drew had a lousy postseason and was given a qualifying offer, so he'd cost the Cards a draft pick. That said, he's also a solidly above-average shortstop, both offensively and defensively, and comes with a much smaller price tag than Tulowitzki, both in terms of prospects and dollars.
What makes Drew one of the lesser options is simply the likelihood that he returns to the Red Sox, even with a full-time job not completely assured. Like Hardy, Drew would be a short-term fix, and the Cardinals will still need to emphasize developing a shortstop.
Hit and run: Greg Garcia
Garcia, who was Kolten Wong's double-play partner at the University of Hawaii, is by no means a blue-chip prospect, but the 24-year-old recovered from a rough start at Triple-A Memphis to post a .377 OBP for the season. If the Cardinals go with an in-house solution, why not experiment with a shortstop who has actual experience? He can't be worse than Kozma.
The sac fly: Ryan Jackson
Jackson's .278/.352/.346 line in the Pacific Coast League doesn't exactly cause much in the way of excitement, but he's A-Rod in his prime compared to Kozma's .232/.292/.355 line in Triple-A. Jackson and Garcia split reps at Memphis this season, and while the latter offers a little more offensive upside, Jackson has a better defensive rep.
The weak grounder: Daniel Descalso
Descalso has had periods in which he's been interesting with the bat, but he's probably not good enough to be anything more than a decent backup at short and without the interesting upside that either Garcia or Jackson could have there. Descalso should be a valuable role player, a guy who can fill in anywhere in the infield, with a lefty bat that has some occasional pop. That said, he would be miscast as a full-time shortstop.
The strikeout: Pete Kozma
Kozma's likely to be a little better in 2014 than he was in 2013 -- the ZiPS projection system has him improving to a .220/.276/.304 line, enough to bring him above replacement level by a hair. While the Cardinals can rightfully claim that they couldn't just magically come up with a shortstop replacement in the middle of the World Series, that excuse won't work in the winter.
Don't fear a long-term Cano deal.
MLB free agency officially begins on Tuesday, as players will have the right to begin negotiating with all 30 teams and financial figures can start to be officially exchanged. And when it does begin, no free agent will ask for bigger numbers than Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano. He is undisputedly the best player on the market this winter, and early reports have suggested that he's looking for a monstrous contract, maybe even aiming to become baseball's first $300 million player.
With any deal for a player of Cano's stature, we're essentially guaranteed a minimum of seven years, and recent trends suggest that elite position players -- Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder most notably -- have enough leverage to demand eight-, nine- or even 10-year contracts. Joey Votto got a 10-year deal from the Reds when he was two years from free agency, effectively making that a 12-year commitment, and he didn't even have the leverage of other teams bidding up his price. However, those three players all play first base, and their value comes almost entirely from their hitting skills.
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Andrew Weber/USA TODAY Sports
Prince Fielder didn't produce in the 2013 playoffs.
Cano is a second baseman, and while he's an amazing hitter relative to other second basemen, his offense wouldn't be as impressive at a less demanding position. A significant part of Cano's value comes from the fact that he can play an up-the-middle position, and teams have historically not paid the same price for defensive value as they have for offensive value. Especially when it comes to signing a player into his late 30s -- Cano just turned 31, so even an eight-year deal would take him through his age-38 season -- teams have historically been skeptical about betting on up-the-middle players sustaining their value, at least relative to the bets they are willing to make on players who derive their value from standing at the plate and hitting the ball really far.
So, how big a contract could Cano command in the open market, and how legitimate are the concerns about up-the-middle players breaking down?
There does seem to be a decent amount of skepticism about how second basemen in particular will hold up toward the end of their careers. Roberto Alomar, for instance, fell apart after his age-33 season, going from an MVP-caliber star to a nearly worthless scrub almost overnight. He was one of the best players ever to man the position but was totally washed up by his 34th birthday. One theory espoused for the unexpected and dramatic declines of second basemen: They take a physical beating from hanging in on the double play, having years of players slide into their legs and knees, and eventually, it just wears them down.
However, the theory is usually based on anecdotal evidence. It's one thing to point to Alomar or Ryne Sandberg, but is there actually evidence that second basemen who hit like Cano are more likely to flame out than players at other positions?
This is a little bit of a tricky question to answer simply because there are so few second basemen who hit like Cano. But, there have been some, and we can look at their careers to see whether we see a pattern of early collapses.
For a fair comparison, here are the top five offensive second basemen over the past 50 years, from ages 28-30, sorted by wRC+:
Joe Morgan: 2,019 plate appearances, 156 wRC+, 26.8 WAR
Rod Carew: 1,994 PA, 152 wRC+, 20.0 WAR
Robinson Cano: 2,059 PA, 142 wRC+, 19.1 WAR
Chase Utley: 2,007 PA, 141 wRC+, 23.4 WAR
Craig Biggio: 1,907 PA, 137 wRC+, 15.3 WAR
For all five, the playing time during those three seasons was pretty similar, ranging from 416 games for Biggio to 480 for Cano. Cano actually has more games played and more plate appearances during his age 28-30 seasons than any of the other four players on the list, so relative to his peers, durability seems not to be an issue.
How did the other four do in the latter stages of their careers, performance-wise, starting with their age-31 seasons? Let's look at the numbers.
Morgan: 5,390 PA, 135 wRC+, 46.7 WAR
Biggio: 6,744 PA, 113 wRC+, 33.6 WAR
Carew: 4,915 PA, 130 wRC+, 28.4 WAR
Utley: 1,858 PA, 121 wRC+, 15.9 WAR
Morgan played until he was 40, and was even better after turning 30 than he was before. His two best seasons came at ages 31 and 32, and even at the end of his career, he was an excellent player. He played second base all the way to the end of his career as well, never moving to an easier position even after 20 years of turning double plays.
Biggio also had the two best years of his career at ages 31 and 32, and he played until he was 41, but he's actually a bit more in the Alomar camp than the Morgan camp, as he was essentially an average player from 34-41. He wasn't a very effective player at the end of his career, and his decline from greatness to mediocrity was swift. He was so good in his early 30s, however, that the overall performance during that span is still excellent.
Carew was a bit of a mix of the two, at least in terms of age-31 excellence, as he also had the best year of his career in that season, but he comes with a bit of a caveat: He moved to first base full time at age 30 and spent the second half of his career playing a much less demanding position. Still, the move to first base didn't keep him from being a fantastic player in his 30s, as he retained almost all of his offensive value and was a very good player through age 36 before tailing off in his last few years.
Finally, we have the incomplete story of Utley. He just finished his age-34 season, and his past four years have been full of injuries. However, Utley's been so good when he has been on the field that he's been at least a plus-3 WAR player in each of his age 31-34 seasons, even while only averaging 108 games per season. We don't know what Utley's next few years will look like, but if he represents the injury-prone downside of taking a beating at second base, that's a pretty great worst-case scenario.
Of the four second basemen in the past 50 years who were comparable to Cano heading into a similar point in his career, two are in the Hall of Fame, one should be and the active player will have a decent case if he can stick around for a few more years at the level he's been playing recently. It's hard to get a better set of comparables than that.
Maybe signing a contract of eight-plus years for Cano won't turn out to be a good idea, just as it doesn't appear to have been a good idea to give Fielder a nine-year deal or Pujols a 10-year deal. These long contracts come with tons of risk. However, the evidence that great second basemen in particular come with extra risk seems to be lacking. I'd be leery of giving any player on the wrong side of 30 a deal that runs for nearly a decade, but teams shouldn't be less willing to give that kind of deal to Cano just because he plays second base.
With any deal for a player of Cano's stature, we're essentially guaranteed a minimum of seven years, and recent trends suggest that elite position players -- Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder most notably -- have enough leverage to demand eight-, nine- or even 10-year contracts. Joey Votto got a 10-year deal from the Reds when he was two years from free agency, effectively making that a 12-year commitment, and he didn't even have the leverage of other teams bidding up his price. However, those three players all play first base, and their value comes almost entirely from their hitting skills.
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Andrew Weber/USA TODAY Sports
Prince Fielder didn't produce in the 2013 playoffs.
Cano is a second baseman, and while he's an amazing hitter relative to other second basemen, his offense wouldn't be as impressive at a less demanding position. A significant part of Cano's value comes from the fact that he can play an up-the-middle position, and teams have historically not paid the same price for defensive value as they have for offensive value. Especially when it comes to signing a player into his late 30s -- Cano just turned 31, so even an eight-year deal would take him through his age-38 season -- teams have historically been skeptical about betting on up-the-middle players sustaining their value, at least relative to the bets they are willing to make on players who derive their value from standing at the plate and hitting the ball really far.
So, how big a contract could Cano command in the open market, and how legitimate are the concerns about up-the-middle players breaking down?
There does seem to be a decent amount of skepticism about how second basemen in particular will hold up toward the end of their careers. Roberto Alomar, for instance, fell apart after his age-33 season, going from an MVP-caliber star to a nearly worthless scrub almost overnight. He was one of the best players ever to man the position but was totally washed up by his 34th birthday. One theory espoused for the unexpected and dramatic declines of second basemen: They take a physical beating from hanging in on the double play, having years of players slide into their legs and knees, and eventually, it just wears them down.
However, the theory is usually based on anecdotal evidence. It's one thing to point to Alomar or Ryne Sandberg, but is there actually evidence that second basemen who hit like Cano are more likely to flame out than players at other positions?
This is a little bit of a tricky question to answer simply because there are so few second basemen who hit like Cano. But, there have been some, and we can look at their careers to see whether we see a pattern of early collapses.
For a fair comparison, here are the top five offensive second basemen over the past 50 years, from ages 28-30, sorted by wRC+:
Joe Morgan: 2,019 plate appearances, 156 wRC+, 26.8 WAR
Rod Carew: 1,994 PA, 152 wRC+, 20.0 WAR
Robinson Cano: 2,059 PA, 142 wRC+, 19.1 WAR
Chase Utley: 2,007 PA, 141 wRC+, 23.4 WAR
Craig Biggio: 1,907 PA, 137 wRC+, 15.3 WAR
For all five, the playing time during those three seasons was pretty similar, ranging from 416 games for Biggio to 480 for Cano. Cano actually has more games played and more plate appearances during his age 28-30 seasons than any of the other four players on the list, so relative to his peers, durability seems not to be an issue.
How did the other four do in the latter stages of their careers, performance-wise, starting with their age-31 seasons? Let's look at the numbers.
Morgan: 5,390 PA, 135 wRC+, 46.7 WAR
Biggio: 6,744 PA, 113 wRC+, 33.6 WAR
Carew: 4,915 PA, 130 wRC+, 28.4 WAR
Utley: 1,858 PA, 121 wRC+, 15.9 WAR
Morgan played until he was 40, and was even better after turning 30 than he was before. His two best seasons came at ages 31 and 32, and even at the end of his career, he was an excellent player. He played second base all the way to the end of his career as well, never moving to an easier position even after 20 years of turning double plays.
Biggio also had the two best years of his career at ages 31 and 32, and he played until he was 41, but he's actually a bit more in the Alomar camp than the Morgan camp, as he was essentially an average player from 34-41. He wasn't a very effective player at the end of his career, and his decline from greatness to mediocrity was swift. He was so good in his early 30s, however, that the overall performance during that span is still excellent.
Carew was a bit of a mix of the two, at least in terms of age-31 excellence, as he also had the best year of his career in that season, but he comes with a bit of a caveat: He moved to first base full time at age 30 and spent the second half of his career playing a much less demanding position. Still, the move to first base didn't keep him from being a fantastic player in his 30s, as he retained almost all of his offensive value and was a very good player through age 36 before tailing off in his last few years.
Finally, we have the incomplete story of Utley. He just finished his age-34 season, and his past four years have been full of injuries. However, Utley's been so good when he has been on the field that he's been at least a plus-3 WAR player in each of his age 31-34 seasons, even while only averaging 108 games per season. We don't know what Utley's next few years will look like, but if he represents the injury-prone downside of taking a beating at second base, that's a pretty great worst-case scenario.
Of the four second basemen in the past 50 years who were comparable to Cano heading into a similar point in his career, two are in the Hall of Fame, one should be and the active player will have a decent case if he can stick around for a few more years at the level he's been playing recently. It's hard to get a better set of comparables than that.
Maybe signing a contract of eight-plus years for Cano won't turn out to be a good idea, just as it doesn't appear to have been a good idea to give Fielder a nine-year deal or Pujols a 10-year deal. These long contracts come with tons of risk. However, the evidence that great second basemen in particular come with extra risk seems to be lacking. I'd be leery of giving any player on the wrong side of 30 a deal that runs for nearly a decade, but teams shouldn't be less willing to give that kind of deal to Cano just because he plays second base.
Boston being unfair to Torey Lovullo.
The Yankees haven't issued uniform No. 6 since Joe Torre left after the 2007 season, because the folks at the top of that organization recognize that there will be a day -- possibly next summer -- when Torre will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Torre was an excellent player, with 2,342 hits, nine All-Star appearances and an MVP Award, but his 12 seasons as manager of the Yankees push his candidacy over the top: He was the on-field leader of baseball's last dynasty, with the Yankees accumulating four championships and five World Series appearances in the span of six years. He was the perfect personality to manage a near-perfect roster, and the success of those teams, in the post-free-agency era that began in 1976, is unparalleled.
Torre is an important part of the Yankees' history, which is why the time will come, after he is celebrated in Cooperstown, that No. 6 will be retired in Torre's honor, with all of the attending pomp and circumstance.
Because it's the right thing to do, no matter the strain that occurred as Torre left the organization. There are personal relationships that were damaged along the way, and most or all will never be repaired because of what was done and said when he departed and because of what is contained within the pages of Torre's book. The split was ugly, unquestionably.
But like two divorced parents who do right by their children, the Yankees and Torre have chosen to set their differences aside when it comes to the treatment of their shared history. Torre has not boycotted Yankee Stadium, nor turned his back on the Yankees' organization; the Yankees never exiled Torre.
When the Yankees honored Mariano Rivera at the end of the season, Torre was part of the ceremony, and introduced in the same way that Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada and others were introduced. There was no hint of bitterness.
Which was the right thing to do. Because they all understand that what they accomplished together belongs to the ages, to fans, and should never be overshadowed by lingering personal feuds and disputes.
The Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 1918 and did not win another for the next 85 years. But finally, in 2004, they won again, with a memorable group of players that Johnny Damon dubbed as the "Idiots." The general manager of that team was Theo Epstein, and three years later, with Epstein serving as GM, they won again. Two championships in four years, transformative success for the Red Sox -- success shared by John Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino, Epstein, Terry Francona, the staff and the players.
Subsequently, there were divorces. There was a book that made a lot of the principals mad -- Francona's Boston memoir, published last spring -- and there is bitterness. Francona is with the Indians now, and Epstein left the Red Sox after the 2011 season to join the Cubs.
Now the Cubs and Epstein are looking for a manager and they have asked for permission to speak with Torey Lovullo, the bench coach for the Red Sox team that won the World Series last week.
Lovullo is 48 years old and has been considered a candidate for numerous major league managerial jobs, but has never gotten his shot. After John Farrell became manager of the Blue Jays in the fall of 2011, Lovullo -- who had managed in the Red Sox farm system -- went to Toronto to be part of Farrell's coaching staff. When Farrell returned to the Boston organization, so did Lovullo.
This point is worth repeating: Lovullo left the Red Sox at the same time that Epstein did, and then came back.
As written by Gordon Wittenmeyer, the Red Sox have denied the Cubs' request to interview Lovullo, and in so doing, they have denied Lovullo this shot at becoming a manager. Their decision, it is said, is because of an agreement made in the midst of Epstein's tumultuous departure that Epstein would not hire anyone from the Red Sox -- an effort by the Red Sox, at that time, to ensure that Epstein would not immediately raid the organization that he helped to shape.
Again: Lovullo left the Red Sox at the same time that Epstein did, to go to Toronto. He went away, and then returned. This is not as cut-and-dried as it would be if Epstein tried to hire a longtime farm director or scouting director, or a young manager-in-waiting. Farrell could be the Boston manager for many years to come. There is no apparent opportunity for Lovullo to be promoted in the foreseeable future.
Professional sports teams routinely grant valued employees permission to discuss advancement elsewhere, and for Lovullo, this is not a lateral move -- this could be a chance for his first managerial job in the big leagues.
You would hope that Lovullo is not being caught in the last crossfire of a breakup that is now two years old, like the child who is manipulated in a nasty custody proceeding.
You would hope that the folks at the top of the Red Sox organization have moved on, no matter the nature of Epstein's departure, because the personal feelings should always be secondary to what they all accomplished together.
Because it's the right thing to do. For their own sake and, in this moment, for the sake of Torey Lovullo.
By the way: The Red Sox leadership did a nice thing here, thanking the Cardinals and the city of St. Louis.
Around the league
• The Rangers' signing of Geovany Soto is a safety net for Texas to begin its offseason. Texas isn't perceived by rival evaluators to have much catching in its pipeline, and so as the Rangers begin the offseason, they know that they at least have Soto, who has a good working relationship with their best pitcher, Yu Darvish. They could still add to the position, with someone like Brian McCann, who would join the Rangers as a DH-first catcher. McCann remains a possibility, writes Jeff Wilson.
Scott Lauber has more on Boston's interest in Brian McCann.
• There will be interest in Bartolo Colon, coming off a season in which he went 18-6 and had a 2.65 ERA. But he is 40 years old and has a PED suspension in his history, which means there will be some queasiness about how much he can be counted on -- especially for a small-market club like Oakland.
If the Athletics had given Colon a qualifying offer of $14.1 million, he might've accounted for a staggering 20 percent of their payroll, which was just too much for them, in light of his history. If Colon played for a large-budget team like the Dodgers or Yankees or Phillies, the question of whether to give Colon a qualifying offer would've been a no-brainer. Some club executives believe this is another example of how the rules are stacked in favor of the big-market clubs.
It figures that Colon will land with a big-market team that can feel comfortable giving him a pricey one-year deal -- maybe in the range of $10 million to $11 million -- or perhaps even a two-year deal. It'll be interesting to see if the Yankees consider Colon if Hiroki Kuroda decides to leave.
• This is what has happened with managers in the past three days.
1) On Sunday, Dave Dombrowski -- an executive with a track record that could someday earn him induction into the Hall of Fame -- passed on the chance to hire someone he knows well from his own coaching staff, Lloyd McClendon, and instead hired someone with whom he has no working history, Brad Ausmus.
2) On Tuesday, the Seattle Mariners hired McClendon, at the end of a meandering managerial search.
As Tim Kurkjian says, in so many words, you never know what you're going to see in baseball -- because in this case, you certainly would have assumed that the Mariners would have followed Dombrowski's lead.
McClendon is stepping into a tough spot, writes Jerry Brewer.
• The awards finalists were announced.
• The A's will not play at AT&T Park, writes Mark Purdy.
• Three other factors which will greatly impact Kendrys Morales' ability to get offers that compete with the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer that he got from the Mariners.
1) He's the second best free-agent DH available, behind Carlos Beltran, at a time when there are very few full-time DH positions available.
2) Brian McCann is being looked at as a combination DH-catcher by some AL teams.
3) The Royals have made it clear to the industry that they are ready to deal Billy Butler, a really good hitter who is three years younger than Morales -- and Butler is owed just $20.5 million over the next two seasons.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Rockies are interested in some relievers, writes Troy Renck.
2. Grant Balfour is drawing interest, writes Susan Slusser.
3. The Dodgers are signaling a shift in philosophy, writes J.P. Hoornstra.
4. Tim Wallach might be the Dodgers' bench coach next season, writes Ken Gurnick.
5. It's not entirely clear whether Jeff Jones will be retained as pitching coach for the Tigers. You wonder if Brad Ausmus would consider his former teammate, Doug Brocail, who recently left his duties as the pitching coach for the Astros.
6. No qualifying offer for Bronson Arroyo stinks, writes Paul Daugherty.
7. The Orioles hired Jeff Manto.
8. The Cardinals are pondering some moves.
9. The Twins cut ties with Nick Blackburn.
Dings and dents
1. Dustin Pedroia's surgery will be complicated.
AL East
• Dan Connolly writes about the Orioles' early plans.
NL West
• Chase Headley's contract is a sticking point for the Padres, writes Jeff Sanders.
Torre was an excellent player, with 2,342 hits, nine All-Star appearances and an MVP Award, but his 12 seasons as manager of the Yankees push his candidacy over the top: He was the on-field leader of baseball's last dynasty, with the Yankees accumulating four championships and five World Series appearances in the span of six years. He was the perfect personality to manage a near-perfect roster, and the success of those teams, in the post-free-agency era that began in 1976, is unparalleled.
Torre is an important part of the Yankees' history, which is why the time will come, after he is celebrated in Cooperstown, that No. 6 will be retired in Torre's honor, with all of the attending pomp and circumstance.
Because it's the right thing to do, no matter the strain that occurred as Torre left the organization. There are personal relationships that were damaged along the way, and most or all will never be repaired because of what was done and said when he departed and because of what is contained within the pages of Torre's book. The split was ugly, unquestionably.
But like two divorced parents who do right by their children, the Yankees and Torre have chosen to set their differences aside when it comes to the treatment of their shared history. Torre has not boycotted Yankee Stadium, nor turned his back on the Yankees' organization; the Yankees never exiled Torre.
When the Yankees honored Mariano Rivera at the end of the season, Torre was part of the ceremony, and introduced in the same way that Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada and others were introduced. There was no hint of bitterness.
Which was the right thing to do. Because they all understand that what they accomplished together belongs to the ages, to fans, and should never be overshadowed by lingering personal feuds and disputes.
The Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 1918 and did not win another for the next 85 years. But finally, in 2004, they won again, with a memorable group of players that Johnny Damon dubbed as the "Idiots." The general manager of that team was Theo Epstein, and three years later, with Epstein serving as GM, they won again. Two championships in four years, transformative success for the Red Sox -- success shared by John Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino, Epstein, Terry Francona, the staff and the players.
Subsequently, there were divorces. There was a book that made a lot of the principals mad -- Francona's Boston memoir, published last spring -- and there is bitterness. Francona is with the Indians now, and Epstein left the Red Sox after the 2011 season to join the Cubs.
Now the Cubs and Epstein are looking for a manager and they have asked for permission to speak with Torey Lovullo, the bench coach for the Red Sox team that won the World Series last week.
Lovullo is 48 years old and has been considered a candidate for numerous major league managerial jobs, but has never gotten his shot. After John Farrell became manager of the Blue Jays in the fall of 2011, Lovullo -- who had managed in the Red Sox farm system -- went to Toronto to be part of Farrell's coaching staff. When Farrell returned to the Boston organization, so did Lovullo.
This point is worth repeating: Lovullo left the Red Sox at the same time that Epstein did, and then came back.
As written by Gordon Wittenmeyer, the Red Sox have denied the Cubs' request to interview Lovullo, and in so doing, they have denied Lovullo this shot at becoming a manager. Their decision, it is said, is because of an agreement made in the midst of Epstein's tumultuous departure that Epstein would not hire anyone from the Red Sox -- an effort by the Red Sox, at that time, to ensure that Epstein would not immediately raid the organization that he helped to shape.
Again: Lovullo left the Red Sox at the same time that Epstein did, to go to Toronto. He went away, and then returned. This is not as cut-and-dried as it would be if Epstein tried to hire a longtime farm director or scouting director, or a young manager-in-waiting. Farrell could be the Boston manager for many years to come. There is no apparent opportunity for Lovullo to be promoted in the foreseeable future.
Professional sports teams routinely grant valued employees permission to discuss advancement elsewhere, and for Lovullo, this is not a lateral move -- this could be a chance for his first managerial job in the big leagues.
You would hope that Lovullo is not being caught in the last crossfire of a breakup that is now two years old, like the child who is manipulated in a nasty custody proceeding.
You would hope that the folks at the top of the Red Sox organization have moved on, no matter the nature of Epstein's departure, because the personal feelings should always be secondary to what they all accomplished together.
Because it's the right thing to do. For their own sake and, in this moment, for the sake of Torey Lovullo.
By the way: The Red Sox leadership did a nice thing here, thanking the Cardinals and the city of St. Louis.
Around the league
• The Rangers' signing of Geovany Soto is a safety net for Texas to begin its offseason. Texas isn't perceived by rival evaluators to have much catching in its pipeline, and so as the Rangers begin the offseason, they know that they at least have Soto, who has a good working relationship with their best pitcher, Yu Darvish. They could still add to the position, with someone like Brian McCann, who would join the Rangers as a DH-first catcher. McCann remains a possibility, writes Jeff Wilson.
Scott Lauber has more on Boston's interest in Brian McCann.
• There will be interest in Bartolo Colon, coming off a season in which he went 18-6 and had a 2.65 ERA. But he is 40 years old and has a PED suspension in his history, which means there will be some queasiness about how much he can be counted on -- especially for a small-market club like Oakland.
If the Athletics had given Colon a qualifying offer of $14.1 million, he might've accounted for a staggering 20 percent of their payroll, which was just too much for them, in light of his history. If Colon played for a large-budget team like the Dodgers or Yankees or Phillies, the question of whether to give Colon a qualifying offer would've been a no-brainer. Some club executives believe this is another example of how the rules are stacked in favor of the big-market clubs.
It figures that Colon will land with a big-market team that can feel comfortable giving him a pricey one-year deal -- maybe in the range of $10 million to $11 million -- or perhaps even a two-year deal. It'll be interesting to see if the Yankees consider Colon if Hiroki Kuroda decides to leave.
• This is what has happened with managers in the past three days.
1) On Sunday, Dave Dombrowski -- an executive with a track record that could someday earn him induction into the Hall of Fame -- passed on the chance to hire someone he knows well from his own coaching staff, Lloyd McClendon, and instead hired someone with whom he has no working history, Brad Ausmus.
2) On Tuesday, the Seattle Mariners hired McClendon, at the end of a meandering managerial search.
As Tim Kurkjian says, in so many words, you never know what you're going to see in baseball -- because in this case, you certainly would have assumed that the Mariners would have followed Dombrowski's lead.
McClendon is stepping into a tough spot, writes Jerry Brewer.
• The awards finalists were announced.
• The A's will not play at AT&T Park, writes Mark Purdy.
• Three other factors which will greatly impact Kendrys Morales' ability to get offers that compete with the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer that he got from the Mariners.
1) He's the second best free-agent DH available, behind Carlos Beltran, at a time when there are very few full-time DH positions available.
2) Brian McCann is being looked at as a combination DH-catcher by some AL teams.
3) The Royals have made it clear to the industry that they are ready to deal Billy Butler, a really good hitter who is three years younger than Morales -- and Butler is owed just $20.5 million over the next two seasons.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Rockies are interested in some relievers, writes Troy Renck.
2. Grant Balfour is drawing interest, writes Susan Slusser.
3. The Dodgers are signaling a shift in philosophy, writes J.P. Hoornstra.
4. Tim Wallach might be the Dodgers' bench coach next season, writes Ken Gurnick.
5. It's not entirely clear whether Jeff Jones will be retained as pitching coach for the Tigers. You wonder if Brad Ausmus would consider his former teammate, Doug Brocail, who recently left his duties as the pitching coach for the Astros.
6. No qualifying offer for Bronson Arroyo stinks, writes Paul Daugherty.
7. The Orioles hired Jeff Manto.
8. The Cardinals are pondering some moves.
9. The Twins cut ties with Nick Blackburn.
Dings and dents
1. Dustin Pedroia's surgery will be complicated.
AL East
• Dan Connolly writes about the Orioles' early plans.
NL West
• Chase Headley's contract is a sticking point for the Padres, writes Jeff Sanders.
- Status