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Strikeouts are bad, but they're not the worst thing in the world. If we could replace one or two of our most prone hitters with ones who could hit for average we'd be fine.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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If you saw the ALCS, you'll know why I personally wouldn't want to add strikeouts to the Yanks 
everyone says "Yeah but Curtis hit 42 HR's and BJ hit almost 30 and was injured for a month" but that stuff doesn't help when you're facing top of the line pitchers in 3 straight games.
everyone says "Yeah but Curtis hit 42 HR's and BJ hit almost 30 and was injured for a month" but that stuff doesn't help when you're facing top of the line pitchers in 3 straight games.
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I need this to happen.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/lists/...#tab=photo-title=Michael+Bourn&photo=31401039
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nevermind.
i'd rather have Otis Nixon right now than Drew Stubbs.
i'd rather have Otis Nixon right now than Drew Stubbs.
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Ryan Ludwick Declines Mutual Option
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [October 31, 2012 at 1:04pm CST]
Ryan Ludwick declined his side of the mutual option on his contract, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). As expected, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client will become a free agent. Ludwick's contract included a $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.
Ludwick will pursue a multiyear deal after hitting 26 home runs and posting a .275/.346/.531 batting line in 472 plate appearances with Cincinnati this past season. The Reds need outfielders and will consider working out a new deal with Ludwick. Both sides are “very interested” in discussing another contract, Heyman reported two weeks ago.
per: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [October 31, 2012 at 1:04pm CST]
Ryan Ludwick declined his side of the mutual option on his contract, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). As expected, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client will become a free agent. Ludwick's contract included a $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.
Ludwick will pursue a multiyear deal after hitting 26 home runs and posting a .275/.346/.531 batting line in 472 plate appearances with Cincinnati this past season. The Reds need outfielders and will consider working out a new deal with Ludwick. Both sides are “very interested” in discussing another contract, Heyman reported two weeks ago.
per: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012
jumpmanfromdabay
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Ned Colleti deserves an Extension
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jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
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never seen a GM over pay for players as much as he does.
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Colleti should have been tossed overboard as soon as the new regime moved in.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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I understand that a strikeout and pop out are the same thing basically, but it's just frustrating because we aren't putting any pressure on the defense to make a play. I agree that if we could replace a few of the guys with high average guys, it would greatly improve this team.
If you saw the ALCS, you'll know why I personally wouldn't want to add strikeouts to the Yanks
I'm with you Pro. Same **** happened to my A's.
The homers are nice, but when facing a top of the line guy, he's going to limit the homers (especially a strikeout pitcher).
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not only you need to make contact in the POSTSEASON you need to make the defense make plays. i think thats what happen with the so called "HOMERUN" team during this POSTSEASON.
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Amen. McCourt was the only one holding him back.
dacomeup
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I would love that.
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Still irritated the Dodgers basically handed the Sox a blank slate. Was looking forward to watching them flounder around with those terrible contracts for years to come. Hope LAD enjoys paying the power hitter who doesn't hit for power anymore, and the speed guy who isn't that speedy anymore.
The Angels, Dan Haren, and Playing It Safe.
The 25 Best – and Five Worst – Free Agent Values.
Newman’s Own: Best Corner OF’s Of 2012.
The Trap of Overpaying.
It’s decision time for the Los Angeles Angels. It’s decision time for everybody, but the Angels are a part of everybody, and like everybody else, they’re trying to figure out what their 2013 big-league roster might look like. They just traded Ervin Santana to the Royals. They were going to decline his option, and this way they effectively declined his option and also added a potential reliever. Now the Angels have to figure out what they’re doing with Dan Haren and Torii Hunter. A Haren decision in particular will have to be made quickly.
The Angels have until tomorrow to decide whether to pick up Haren’s $15.5 million 2013 option, or whether to buy it out for $3.5 million. Thus the Angels have until tomorrow to decide whether Dan Haren is worth $12 million over one year. From many reports, the Angels are currently trying to trade Haren, just as they did with Santana. Doing so would free up money for Zack Greinke, who is supposedly the Angels’ top offseason priority.
Let’s operate here under two assumptions:
the Angels greatly prefer Greinke over Haren
the Angels do not wish to pay both Greinke and Haren
Those assumptions seem pretty safe to me. The Angels have been free with their money in the past, but every team has a budget, and the Angels apparently aren’t real interested in paying eight figures for a would-be fourth starter. Now let’s take a glance at how the Angels’ present starting rotation looks, leaving Greinke and Haren out:
Jered Weaver
C.J. Wilson
Jerome Williams
Garrett Richards
uhh
There are candidates for that fifth spot — it’s not like the Angels as an organization have but four starting pitchers — but this organization isn’t deep. It’s deep in some places, and it’s deep in the wallet, but it isn’t deep in starters. If we were to represent organizational depth with a ball pit, the Angels’ starting pitcher ball pit would be sparsely populated by balls.
The Angels, of course, will address their rotation, because the offseason is just starting, not just finishing. The Angels fancy themselves a contender and a contender needs to have starters. The Angels seem like they’re going to go all out for Greinke, because they know him and they like him. Maybe the Angels ought to even be considered the Zack Greinke favorites. But one cannot just assume that Greinke will re-sign, and that makes me wonder about the Angels’ approach with Haren.
There’s apparently a sense of urgency when it comes to dealing Haren away, although reports could be incorrect. If the Angels were to deal Haren in the coming days, they’d get a player return, but they’d mostly be saving money. They probably wouldn’t get a very good big-league starting pitcher. Their rotation would be thin, and in need of a significant upgrade if the Angels want to go to the 2013 playoffs.
It seems to me there’s a safer route. I’ll quote Nick Cafardo:
Angels righthander Dan Haren is drawing interest from “several teams,” including the Red Sox, according to a major league source.
Right now, there is reportedly trade interest in Dan Haren. Dan Haren isn’t going to get more or less expensive. If teams are interested in trading for Haren today, it stands to reason teams would be interested in trading for Haren later in the offseason. Maybe not as many teams, but some teams, perhaps even more desperately. One figures the Dan Haren trade interest wouldn’t just evaporate.
Reports have suggested the Angels want to clear Haren before dealing with Greinke, but perhaps they should keep Haren until or unless they get Greinke locked up. If the Angels had their way, they’d have Greinke re-signed by now, but he’s probably going to take a while to sort out his options. There will be plenty of teams interested in his services, and they’ll all be offering big money. Greinke might not sign before the winter meetings. A lot could happen between now and then.
If the Angels were to eventually re-sign Greinke, odds are there would still be teams interested in trading for Haren. Starting pitching is always in demand, Haren would be a short-term commitment, and he has very recently pitched like he belongs at the front of a rotation. If Greinke were to end up somewhere else, though, the Angels would have Haren as a fallback. They’d have Haren for, essentially, a year and $12 million.
The problem with Haren is, naturally, his most recent season. For the first time since 2004, he posted an ERA worse than the league average. For the first time since 2003, he posted an FIP worse than the league average. His xFIP was very slightly better than the league average. Haren’s velocity dropped, and he landed on the disabled list with a back injury he’d tried pitching through. Between June 9 and July 3, Haren allowed 27 runs in 27 innings.
But when Haren came back, the Angels suggested the physical issues were mostly gone, and that what remained was mechanical. It makes sense that a guy pitching hurt would alter his mechanics, and it became a matter of getting Haren back on track. For whatever it’s worth, over Haren’s final nine starts, he registered 43 strikeouts and five unintentional walks. Three of those starts, granted, were against Seattle.
In 2011, Dan Haren was worth 6.1 WAR. Those days are probably gone — Haren’s only getting older — but those days are also recent days. Prior to 2012, Dan Haren was legitimately fantastic. In 2012, Dan Haren was more roughly league-average. He seems to be something of a bounce-back candidate, and at $12 million, he wouldn’t have to be worth a ton to be worth the contract. And on a one-year deal, the risk would be fairly low.
There’s always the option that the Angels could decline Haren’s option and then try to re-sign him at a lower price. Doing so, though, would expose Haren to the market, where he could sign anywhere. The Angels would have competition, and it might require a multi-year commitment to get Haren back. It’s a gamble. Losing Haren and hoping for Greinke is a gamble, because no matter what the Angels’ odds might be for re-signing Greinke, they aren’t 100 percent.
Picking up Haren’s option and holding onto him for the time being wouldn’t lock the Angels into having Haren for 2013. It would just give them support as they work on signing their top priority. There are other starting pitchers out there, of course, but none are as good as Greinke, and few offer Haren’s blend of risk/reward. The Angels know they can have Haren for one year, they know his 2012 was affected by an injury, and they know in 2011 he pitched like an ace. Other pitchers would cost unknown amounts of resources, in terms of players, money, or years. If the Angels ditched Haren and missed out on Greinke, they’d survive, but would their rotation be as good as it would be had they not ditched Haren instead?
Ultimately, the Angels are the most informed, here. Analysis has shown that re-signed players outperform regular-signed players in terms of $/WAR, presumably because the original organizations have the most information. The Angels know the most about Haren’s repertoire, and they know the most about Haren’s back. Maybe the Angels simply see too many red flags — that’s something to consider, if the Angels hurry to trade Haren away.
But at least statistically, there’s an argument for keeping Haren around, if only until Greinke makes a choice. If Haren can be traded now, he could probably be traded after Thanksgiving. And if you just end up stuck with Dan Haren, well, there are worse starting pitchers to end up stuck with on a one-year commitment.
The Angels have until tomorrow to decide whether to pick up Haren’s $15.5 million 2013 option, or whether to buy it out for $3.5 million. Thus the Angels have until tomorrow to decide whether Dan Haren is worth $12 million over one year. From many reports, the Angels are currently trying to trade Haren, just as they did with Santana. Doing so would free up money for Zack Greinke, who is supposedly the Angels’ top offseason priority.
Let’s operate here under two assumptions:
the Angels greatly prefer Greinke over Haren
the Angels do not wish to pay both Greinke and Haren
Those assumptions seem pretty safe to me. The Angels have been free with their money in the past, but every team has a budget, and the Angels apparently aren’t real interested in paying eight figures for a would-be fourth starter. Now let’s take a glance at how the Angels’ present starting rotation looks, leaving Greinke and Haren out:
Jered Weaver
C.J. Wilson
Jerome Williams
Garrett Richards
uhh
There are candidates for that fifth spot — it’s not like the Angels as an organization have but four starting pitchers — but this organization isn’t deep. It’s deep in some places, and it’s deep in the wallet, but it isn’t deep in starters. If we were to represent organizational depth with a ball pit, the Angels’ starting pitcher ball pit would be sparsely populated by balls.
The Angels, of course, will address their rotation, because the offseason is just starting, not just finishing. The Angels fancy themselves a contender and a contender needs to have starters. The Angels seem like they’re going to go all out for Greinke, because they know him and they like him. Maybe the Angels ought to even be considered the Zack Greinke favorites. But one cannot just assume that Greinke will re-sign, and that makes me wonder about the Angels’ approach with Haren.
There’s apparently a sense of urgency when it comes to dealing Haren away, although reports could be incorrect. If the Angels were to deal Haren in the coming days, they’d get a player return, but they’d mostly be saving money. They probably wouldn’t get a very good big-league starting pitcher. Their rotation would be thin, and in need of a significant upgrade if the Angels want to go to the 2013 playoffs.
It seems to me there’s a safer route. I’ll quote Nick Cafardo:
Angels righthander Dan Haren is drawing interest from “several teams,” including the Red Sox, according to a major league source.
Right now, there is reportedly trade interest in Dan Haren. Dan Haren isn’t going to get more or less expensive. If teams are interested in trading for Haren today, it stands to reason teams would be interested in trading for Haren later in the offseason. Maybe not as many teams, but some teams, perhaps even more desperately. One figures the Dan Haren trade interest wouldn’t just evaporate.
Reports have suggested the Angels want to clear Haren before dealing with Greinke, but perhaps they should keep Haren until or unless they get Greinke locked up. If the Angels had their way, they’d have Greinke re-signed by now, but he’s probably going to take a while to sort out his options. There will be plenty of teams interested in his services, and they’ll all be offering big money. Greinke might not sign before the winter meetings. A lot could happen between now and then.
If the Angels were to eventually re-sign Greinke, odds are there would still be teams interested in trading for Haren. Starting pitching is always in demand, Haren would be a short-term commitment, and he has very recently pitched like he belongs at the front of a rotation. If Greinke were to end up somewhere else, though, the Angels would have Haren as a fallback. They’d have Haren for, essentially, a year and $12 million.
The problem with Haren is, naturally, his most recent season. For the first time since 2004, he posted an ERA worse than the league average. For the first time since 2003, he posted an FIP worse than the league average. His xFIP was very slightly better than the league average. Haren’s velocity dropped, and he landed on the disabled list with a back injury he’d tried pitching through. Between June 9 and July 3, Haren allowed 27 runs in 27 innings.
But when Haren came back, the Angels suggested the physical issues were mostly gone, and that what remained was mechanical. It makes sense that a guy pitching hurt would alter his mechanics, and it became a matter of getting Haren back on track. For whatever it’s worth, over Haren’s final nine starts, he registered 43 strikeouts and five unintentional walks. Three of those starts, granted, were against Seattle.
In 2011, Dan Haren was worth 6.1 WAR. Those days are probably gone — Haren’s only getting older — but those days are also recent days. Prior to 2012, Dan Haren was legitimately fantastic. In 2012, Dan Haren was more roughly league-average. He seems to be something of a bounce-back candidate, and at $12 million, he wouldn’t have to be worth a ton to be worth the contract. And on a one-year deal, the risk would be fairly low.
There’s always the option that the Angels could decline Haren’s option and then try to re-sign him at a lower price. Doing so, though, would expose Haren to the market, where he could sign anywhere. The Angels would have competition, and it might require a multi-year commitment to get Haren back. It’s a gamble. Losing Haren and hoping for Greinke is a gamble, because no matter what the Angels’ odds might be for re-signing Greinke, they aren’t 100 percent.
Picking up Haren’s option and holding onto him for the time being wouldn’t lock the Angels into having Haren for 2013. It would just give them support as they work on signing their top priority. There are other starting pitchers out there, of course, but none are as good as Greinke, and few offer Haren’s blend of risk/reward. The Angels know they can have Haren for one year, they know his 2012 was affected by an injury, and they know in 2011 he pitched like an ace. Other pitchers would cost unknown amounts of resources, in terms of players, money, or years. If the Angels ditched Haren and missed out on Greinke, they’d survive, but would their rotation be as good as it would be had they not ditched Haren instead?
Ultimately, the Angels are the most informed, here. Analysis has shown that re-signed players outperform regular-signed players in terms of $/WAR, presumably because the original organizations have the most information. The Angels know the most about Haren’s repertoire, and they know the most about Haren’s back. Maybe the Angels simply see too many red flags — that’s something to consider, if the Angels hurry to trade Haren away.
But at least statistically, there’s an argument for keeping Haren around, if only until Greinke makes a choice. If Haren can be traded now, he could probably be traded after Thanksgiving. And if you just end up stuck with Dan Haren, well, there are worse starting pitchers to end up stuck with on a one-year commitment.
The 25 Best – and Five Worst – Free Agent Values.
Free Agency officially starts tomorrow, as the kinda-sorta-but-not-really-exclusive negotiating period comes to an end today, and players who haven’t re-signed with their former teams are free to sign with anyone they choose. Well, that’s not really true. They can sign with any team that makes them an offer. I’m pretty sure Jose Valverde couldn’t re-sign with the Tigers no matter how much he wanted to.
With free agency starting up, you’re also about to get inundated with lists of the top free agents. 50 seems to have been the agreed upon number, as Tim Dierkes already has his Top 50 up at MLBTradeRumors, while Keith Law has said that his list goes up on ESPN Insider when the clock strikes midnight. I’m sure there will be others, and some of them will probably ask you to view their list in a slideshow. Those people are the Jose Valverde of list makers. Don’t be one of those people. Slideshows are the worst.
Here at FanGraphs, we’re not giving you a slideshow. We’re not giving you a Top 50 Free Agent list either, because, to be honest, my list would have looked an awful lot like Tim’s, and probably an awful lot like Keith’s. I just didn’t see a lot of usefulness in telling you that I agree that Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton are the two best free agents on the market, nor was I super interested in trying to draw a distinction between Carlos Lee and Carlos Pena. They’re both not good anymore. Does anyone really want to read about those guys today? Me either.
So, instead of producing our own list of 50 best free agents on the market in some order, we’re going to provide a different slant – using the Contract Crowdsourcing results that went up in full this morning, I’m going to provide a list of the 25 players that I would be most interested in signing at those given prices. And, for extra fun, the five players who I would not go anywhere near at the prices you guys projected them to sign for.
You’ll see bigger contracts at the top than at the bottom, even though you can get a better ROI on a smaller deal if the guy goes bananas, as Aaron Hill did last year. That said, those kinds of years are tough to predict, and in general, I think teams are better off getting a good player at a good price rather than a role player at a great price, even if in retrospect, some of those players will turn into good players and provide a lot of value beyond what they’re being paid. The goal here isn’t to provide the best value in terms of $/WAR, but to identify — at least, in my view — which contracts are likely to have the biggest magnitude of effect on a team’s chances of winning going forward. And, on the flip side, the contracts that could do the most harm to a team’s ability to contend over the life of the deal.
So, without further ado, here are my Top 25 Free Agent Values, followed by the Five Free Agent Landmines to avoid this winter.
1. Nick Swisher, OF: 4 years, $56 million
Back at the end of August, I wrote up Swisher’s potential value in response to a report that he was hoping for “a Jayson Werth contract”, and found that to be unlikely at best. In the couple of months since that post was written, Swisher had another awful postseason, and now reports suggest that the Yankees aren’t even going to attempt to re-sign him, which can’t be good for his market value. So, even the 6/90 to 7/100 suggestions of late August seem inflated, but there’s no reason Swisher should have to settle for 4/56.
Swisher’s been a +4 win player for each of the last three years, mixing in consistent offensive performance with solid defense and durability. He’s not sexy, but he’s rock solid across the board, with no obvious flaws or red flags to be found. He’s the safest bet in the entire class, and a four year deal would only take him through age 35. If a team can actually get Swisher for 4/56, they should jump on it before the rest of the league realizes that they’re skipping out on a bargain.
2. B.J. Upton, OF: 4 years, $52 million
Upton hasn’t been as good or as consistent as Swisher, but he’s also four years younger, and a four year deal would barely even extend into his decline phase. Upton’s probably never going to develop into what he was projected to be as a prospect, but there aren’t that many guys who can play center field and post a wRC+ of 107, as Upton has throughout his career in Tampa Bay. For a team that needs a center fielder, Upton’s the best bet on the market, especially at a deflated price like this.
3. Anibal Sanchez, SP: 4 years, $52 million
Sanchez has flown under the radar to some extent, overshadowed by Josh Johnson in Miami and Justin Verlander in Detroit, but he’s a legitimately good starter who has seemingly put his health problems behind him, throwing nearly 600 innings over the last three years. His stuff is good, his results are good, and his durability problems are probably overstated at this point. For essentially the same deal that Mark Buehrle got last winter, this would be a nice addition for any team looking to bolster their rotation.
4. Zack Greinke, SP: 6 years, $114 million
Greinke’s the best pitcher on the market and will almost certainly command the biggest paycheck, especially if Texas, Anaheim, and Los Angeles engage in a bidding war for his services, which could push his final contract quite a bit higher than this. If 6/114 was going to get it done, my guess is he’d already be an Angel. Despite his inconsistencies, he has a chance to be a difference maker, and he’s hitting the market in a year where there aren’t many others who can say the same.
5. Angel Pagan, OF – 3 years, $30 million
Pagan probably earned himself some extra cash with his postseason performance, as the switch-hitter showed he can play center field and provide some offense at the top of a championship batting order as well. Two months ago, I called him the most underrated player in the game. This winter, he’ll get some real money, but even at 3/30, he’s got value potential, and could be a great fit on a number of contending teams.
6. Melky Cabrera, OF – 2 years, $16 million
First off, I don’t think Melky would even want a two year deal at this kind of price. He’s the classic “pillow contract” guy, and a one year deal both limits the signing team’s risk and gives Cabrera the chance to re-enter the market next year if he proves he can hit and pass drug tests at the same time. So, my guess is he signs for something more like $6-$8 million on a one year deal, but either way, whoever lands him could get a real steal, as even pre-2012 Melky was worth this kind of contract, and if you believe that any of his improvement will carry over to 2013, he could end up being one of the better performers of the entire class.
7. Josh Hamilton, OF – 5 years, $100 million
You can’t talk about Hamilton’s value without mentioning the long list of risks, but value is a combination of risk and reward, and focusing on one without the other is short sighted. And, of course, the reward for bringing in Hamilton could be quite high, as he’s one of the game’s best players when he’s healthy. He’s basically this year’s Jose Reyes, who many wanted to shy away from at a similar price last year due to injury concerns, but Reyes proved to be a legitimate value in year one of his deal, and Hamilton could easily do the same for whoever takes a shot on his potential without being scared away by the risks.
8. Hiroki Kuroda, SP: 2 years, $24 million
The latest reports indicate that Kuroda will probably accept another one year deal, so even this estimate will probably prove to be a bit too high. Kuroda was a steal for the Yankees last year and remains a quality starter, and any time you can get a quality free agent starter without the risk of a long term deal, that’s a nice addition.
9. David Ortiz, DH – 2 years, $26 million
Why no one wanted to give Ortiz a two year deal last winter is beyond me, but it seems like everyone has realized the error of their ways, and recognize that he’s still got a lot to offer an AL team who needs an offensive upgrade in a hurry. The age and injury concerns limit the length — and risk — of the deal, and at $13 million per year, Ortiz is a bargain. The lack of long term value is the only reason he’s this low.
10. Torii Hunter, OF: 2 years, $20 million
While pretty much everything about Hunter’s career year screams “fluke!” and the stats that measure his core skills are going the wrong way, we can’t ignore the fact that Hunter has put up +11.6 WAR over the last three years, and certainly didn’t look like he was getting old in 2012. On a short term deal at a price that essentially pays him like a league average player, Hunter could provide a nice value buy for any team who wants an short term outfield patch.
11. Ryan Dempster, SP: 3 years, $36 million
Fun fact: Over the last three years, Zack Greinke has a 23% K%, while Ryan Dempster has a 22% K%. Greinke has an ERA- of 96, while Dempster has an ERA- of 99. Sure, Greinke’s better, and he’s younger, but is he that much better than Dempster, to the point where there’s a bidding war for his services while Dempster is basically being seen as a back-end starter near the end of his career? I’d happily take both. At 3/36, Dempster’s basically this year’s Jimmy Rollins – a good player in his thirties who seems to be taking too big of a hit for his age and not getting enough credit for his performance.
12. Brandon McCarthy, SP: 2 years, $20 million
With McCarthy, you can’t talk about him without talking about the fact that his season ended due to brain surgery, and there’s just no way to know if that’s going to have any kind of long lasting effect, either physically or mentally. Juan Nicasio came back from a similarly scary situation, and McCarthy seems like a guy who wants to keep pitching, so but that incident probably is going to keep the offers to short term deals, especially given his arm problems that seem to recur every season. Still, when he’s on the mound, he’s quite good, and I’d imagine most teams in baseball would have to evaluate his medicals if he was available for this price, because 2/20 for a pitcher of McCarthy’s abilities is quite the nice buy.
13. Shane Victorino, OF: 3 years, $30 million
Angel Pagan with a little more speed and a little more fame. They’re very similar players, though Victorino’s reliance on power as a part of his game scares me a little bit, as that seems like a thing that could go away pretty quickly for a little guy in his thirties. Still, at $10 million a year, Victorino would be a nice value for the first year and probably two, and the cost isn’t so high that the third year would be a sinkhole. Any team wanting Pagan that doesn’t get him should look Victorino’s direction.
14. Edwin Jackson, SP: 3 years, $36 million
Jackson hasn’t really changed at all since hitting the market last winter, but the sense is that he’ll get his three year deal this time around, given that he’s still going to be just 29-years-old next year, and he put another quality season on his resume in 2012. He’s not an ace, but he’s a durable innings eater who keeps runs off the board at an above average rate, and there are a lot of teams who could use 200 above average innings at a reasonable price.
15. Roy Oswalt, SP: 1 year, $6 million
2012 was basically a lost year for Oswalt, and he probably learned his lesson about trying to sit out half the season and then come in ready to pitch in a pennant race. I doubt he wants to end his career on that kind of low note, so expect him to be less picky about where he plays this winter, and with a full spring training in a better environment to pitch, he could be quite the nice bounce back option.
16. Joe Blanton, SP: 2 years, $14 million
Over the last three years, Blanton has an xFIP- of 90, which is the fourth best among free agent starting pitchers. The problem is his ERA- of 121 hasn’t come in a particularly small sample size, so we’re dealing with 400 innings where Blanton’s hits and home runs have basically undone all the good he’s accomplished by limiting walks and racking up strikeouts. You generally want to bet on guys with this kind of BB/K rate, and Blanton might turn out to be a steal in a big ballpark with good defensive teammates, but he’s definitely a risk. At this price, it’s a risk worth taking, but you have to know that you might end up with an overpaid BP thrower.
17. Marco Scutaro, IF: 2 years, $16 million
The hero of the Giants postseason is in line for a bit of a raise after his monstrous second half performance, but his age is going to keep the paycheck from getting too out of control. He’s still a slap-hitting 37-year-old with marginal power and some durability question marks, but as he showed for the Giants, contact skills and defense up the middle are a valuable package. The pixie dust will eventually wear off, but $8 million a year for an avearage-ish second baseman, even one at the end of his career, is a decent deal.
18. Maicer Izturis, IF: 2 years, $10 million
I’m pretty sure this is the only Top Free Agent list you’ll see Maicer Izturis on, since he’s an aging utility player coming off a poor season, but for a team that has 400 plate appearances and a weak starting infielder at either second or third, Izturis could be a valuable 10th guy. From 2009 to 2011, he was basically a league average hitter who could handle all three IF positions, and while everything got worse last year, we’re dealing with a half season’s worth of playing time. The larger sample of Izturis’ career peg him as a great part-time guy who won’t kill you if he has to play regularly. $5 million a year for roster flexibility and depth is worth it for a team with some resources.
19. Kevin Youkilis, 3B: 2 years, $18 million
Youkilis’ body seems to be breaking down in front of our eyes, so a two year commitment to a 34-year-old with health problems and regressing skills is a bit of a risk, but we should remember that a downgraded Youkilis is still a pretty decent player. His power is still hanging around and he’s always going to draw his walks, so as long as he can even play a respectable third base and stay in the line-up, he’s a value at this price. I’d rather have him on a one year deal, but if push came to shove, I wouldn’t be a afraid of 2/18.
20. Adam LaRoche, 1B: 3 years, $36 million
I endorse this price with some hesitation, as LaRoche is clearly coming off a career year at age 32, and this could look like a silly overreaction to recent performance if some of the improvement isn’t real. Still, the increased power and reduced K% (relative to league average) give some hope that there’s been sustainable changes made, and he doesn’t have to carry them over for that long to be worth $36 million. If he’s even a +3 win player in 2013 and then ages normally, this is a deal worth doing. If he goes back to being a +2 win guy, then it’s probably a bit of an overpay, but there’s enough potential there to make it worth a shot.
21. Stephen Drew, SS: 2 years, $16 million
Like with Izturis, you’re betting on 2012 not being overly predictive, and going more off his overall body of work than what he was last year. Injuries and the loss of power are concerning, but there aren’t a lot of good shortstops in Major League baseball anymore, and Drew has been one before. This might seem a bit rich for a bounce back guy, but given how thin SS is, he doesn’t have to hit much to be worth $8 million, and if his offense rebounds back to prior levels, there is some upside here.
22. Jeff Keppinger, IF: 2 years, $10 million
Keppinger is essentially Marco Scutaro with terrible defense. Like Scutaro, he almost never swings and misses, and while his offense is based on a quantity of singles, he can get enough of them to be a decent hitter. The problem is that he’s really probably best suited to DH, which isn’t exactly where you want a slap-hitting singles guy, but he can fake it at first and third well enough to be a backup corner infielder, and his skillset makes him an ideal pinch-hitter. He shouldn’t be an everyday guy, but like Izturis, he has value in a 10th man role.
23. Travis Hafner, DH: 1 year, $5 million
With Hafner, we have a DH who simply can’t play more than 100 games a year without something hurting. Last year, he only managed 66 games. Anyone signing Hafner is signing up for a half season of playing time, and maybe less. But, he’s worth having for what he can do when he does play. Last year, he posted a 119 wRC+ while his BABIP sunk to .233, which hasn’t been any kind of career trend for him. His BB/K/ISO were still at elite levels, and while you’d expect an old slow DH to have BABIP problems, even a modest return towards his career average sets him up as a pretty nifty hitter. For a team that can plan on replacing him in-season when he hits the DL but wants the upgrade when he’s healthy enough to play, a low risk one year deal is a nice way to improve the offense.
24. Carlos Villanueva, SP: 2 years, $12 million
Villanueva is this year’s Chris Capuano; a guy who misses more bats than his stuff would suggest and can be a good performer if you think the home run problem might fix itself after a change of scenery. His reputation for wearing down in the second half will likely keep his price down, but any team that wants a lower cost strikeout pitcher with some upside, Villanueva’s a nice fit.
25. Kelly Shoppach, C: 1 year, $3 million
Shoppach’s rising strikeout rate is a concern, and his time as a decent bat against lefties may be coming to an end, but a team looking for a nifty backup catcher who wouldn’t embarrass himself in full-time action could do a lot worse than Shoppach, especially at this price. Given the amount of lousy catchers in baseball right now, Shoppach should be able to do better than this.
And now, for the five crowdsourced contracts that I wouldn’t want to go anywhere near.
1. Delmon Young, DH: 2 years, $16 million
It’s not clear that Delmon Young should even get a Major League contract this winter. He definitely shouldn’t be anyone’s starting DH next year. He’s basically a platoon player at this point in his career, and as a right-handed bat, that means he should play a couple of times per week. Giving him $8 million a year is just lighting cash on fire. Giving him $8 million a year for two years would be one of the dumbest decisions in recent history. I think the game has gotten smarter than this, and I don’t see Young coming anywhere near this price. Which is good, becuase this price is nutso.
2. Kyle Lohse, SP: 4 years, $52 million
Who wants to pay $13 million per year for the age 34-37 years of a pitcher whose career year was based on a low BABIP? Not me. Lohse is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who can soak up innings and occasionally give you a strong season when things go right, but at his age, that’s worth $10 million a year for a couple of years, not $13 million for four. Run away, GMs, run away.
3. Mike Napoli, C/1B: 3 years, $36 million
If you think there’s a good chance that 2011 Napoli will re-emerge, this kind of deal would make sense, but 2012 Napoli should scare teams away from a three year deal. His strikeout went went up 50%, and while he still hit 24 home runs, the doubles went away entirely, so his distribution of extra base hits probably overstates his actual power levels now. He’s the classic old-player-skills type, so while he’ll be just 31, he’s also got a catcher’s wear and tear on his body. Just too many red flags for me here. I think he ends up in Boston on a one year deal that makes sense for everyone, but if the price is really three years, look elsewhere.
4. Michael Bourn, CF: 5 years, $70 million
I wrote about my concerns with Bourn’s future performance a month ago, as I just don’t see a lot of historical precedent for guys succeeding in their thirties with a high K/low power offensive skillset. Those things don’t go together, so if Bourn is going to remain an offensive threat, he’s going to be something of a trailblazer, which isn’t really what you’re looking for when giving out five year deals. As mentioned, there are quite a few average bat/decent glove CFs on the market this year, and most of them will come a lot cheaper than this. Given his contact problems and price tag, I’d rather go another direction.
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP: 1 year, $4 million
Sure, it’s just a one year flier, so why not? How about becomes there’s no evidence that even a healthy Dice-K is any good, and he inflicts pain on everyone watching him pitch. The terrible command combined with 10 minutes between pitches make his starts torture for fans of both sides, and there’s just not enough potential here to justify sucking the life out of the game every five days. There are better, younger, cheaper pitchers who aren’t horrendous to watch. Sign one of them instead. Boycot Dice-K. Please.
So, there you have it – the 25 best and five worst values of the off-season, based on the crowdsourced projections and my best guess as to how these guys will perform going forward. Given that there are five times as many values as landmines, you can probably guess that I think the crowdsourced values are too low, and I expect prices to be higher across the board for most of these guys. But, even with that expectation, I still think there are going to be some decent buys in free agency, especially for a team looking for a center fielder or a back-end starting pitcher. This is a pretty deep free agent class, even if it’s not strong at the top, and an organization willing to wait until January will likely find themselves picking from some decent leftovers.
With free agency starting up, you’re also about to get inundated with lists of the top free agents. 50 seems to have been the agreed upon number, as Tim Dierkes already has his Top 50 up at MLBTradeRumors, while Keith Law has said that his list goes up on ESPN Insider when the clock strikes midnight. I’m sure there will be others, and some of them will probably ask you to view their list in a slideshow. Those people are the Jose Valverde of list makers. Don’t be one of those people. Slideshows are the worst.
Here at FanGraphs, we’re not giving you a slideshow. We’re not giving you a Top 50 Free Agent list either, because, to be honest, my list would have looked an awful lot like Tim’s, and probably an awful lot like Keith’s. I just didn’t see a lot of usefulness in telling you that I agree that Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton are the two best free agents on the market, nor was I super interested in trying to draw a distinction between Carlos Lee and Carlos Pena. They’re both not good anymore. Does anyone really want to read about those guys today? Me either.
So, instead of producing our own list of 50 best free agents on the market in some order, we’re going to provide a different slant – using the Contract Crowdsourcing results that went up in full this morning, I’m going to provide a list of the 25 players that I would be most interested in signing at those given prices. And, for extra fun, the five players who I would not go anywhere near at the prices you guys projected them to sign for.
You’ll see bigger contracts at the top than at the bottom, even though you can get a better ROI on a smaller deal if the guy goes bananas, as Aaron Hill did last year. That said, those kinds of years are tough to predict, and in general, I think teams are better off getting a good player at a good price rather than a role player at a great price, even if in retrospect, some of those players will turn into good players and provide a lot of value beyond what they’re being paid. The goal here isn’t to provide the best value in terms of $/WAR, but to identify — at least, in my view — which contracts are likely to have the biggest magnitude of effect on a team’s chances of winning going forward. And, on the flip side, the contracts that could do the most harm to a team’s ability to contend over the life of the deal.
So, without further ado, here are my Top 25 Free Agent Values, followed by the Five Free Agent Landmines to avoid this winter.
1. Nick Swisher, OF: 4 years, $56 million
Back at the end of August, I wrote up Swisher’s potential value in response to a report that he was hoping for “a Jayson Werth contract”, and found that to be unlikely at best. In the couple of months since that post was written, Swisher had another awful postseason, and now reports suggest that the Yankees aren’t even going to attempt to re-sign him, which can’t be good for his market value. So, even the 6/90 to 7/100 suggestions of late August seem inflated, but there’s no reason Swisher should have to settle for 4/56.
Swisher’s been a +4 win player for each of the last three years, mixing in consistent offensive performance with solid defense and durability. He’s not sexy, but he’s rock solid across the board, with no obvious flaws or red flags to be found. He’s the safest bet in the entire class, and a four year deal would only take him through age 35. If a team can actually get Swisher for 4/56, they should jump on it before the rest of the league realizes that they’re skipping out on a bargain.
2. B.J. Upton, OF: 4 years, $52 million
Upton hasn’t been as good or as consistent as Swisher, but he’s also four years younger, and a four year deal would barely even extend into his decline phase. Upton’s probably never going to develop into what he was projected to be as a prospect, but there aren’t that many guys who can play center field and post a wRC+ of 107, as Upton has throughout his career in Tampa Bay. For a team that needs a center fielder, Upton’s the best bet on the market, especially at a deflated price like this.
3. Anibal Sanchez, SP: 4 years, $52 million
Sanchez has flown under the radar to some extent, overshadowed by Josh Johnson in Miami and Justin Verlander in Detroit, but he’s a legitimately good starter who has seemingly put his health problems behind him, throwing nearly 600 innings over the last three years. His stuff is good, his results are good, and his durability problems are probably overstated at this point. For essentially the same deal that Mark Buehrle got last winter, this would be a nice addition for any team looking to bolster their rotation.
4. Zack Greinke, SP: 6 years, $114 million
Greinke’s the best pitcher on the market and will almost certainly command the biggest paycheck, especially if Texas, Anaheim, and Los Angeles engage in a bidding war for his services, which could push his final contract quite a bit higher than this. If 6/114 was going to get it done, my guess is he’d already be an Angel. Despite his inconsistencies, he has a chance to be a difference maker, and he’s hitting the market in a year where there aren’t many others who can say the same.
5. Angel Pagan, OF – 3 years, $30 million
Pagan probably earned himself some extra cash with his postseason performance, as the switch-hitter showed he can play center field and provide some offense at the top of a championship batting order as well. Two months ago, I called him the most underrated player in the game. This winter, he’ll get some real money, but even at 3/30, he’s got value potential, and could be a great fit on a number of contending teams.
6. Melky Cabrera, OF – 2 years, $16 million
First off, I don’t think Melky would even want a two year deal at this kind of price. He’s the classic “pillow contract” guy, and a one year deal both limits the signing team’s risk and gives Cabrera the chance to re-enter the market next year if he proves he can hit and pass drug tests at the same time. So, my guess is he signs for something more like $6-$8 million on a one year deal, but either way, whoever lands him could get a real steal, as even pre-2012 Melky was worth this kind of contract, and if you believe that any of his improvement will carry over to 2013, he could end up being one of the better performers of the entire class.
7. Josh Hamilton, OF – 5 years, $100 million
You can’t talk about Hamilton’s value without mentioning the long list of risks, but value is a combination of risk and reward, and focusing on one without the other is short sighted. And, of course, the reward for bringing in Hamilton could be quite high, as he’s one of the game’s best players when he’s healthy. He’s basically this year’s Jose Reyes, who many wanted to shy away from at a similar price last year due to injury concerns, but Reyes proved to be a legitimate value in year one of his deal, and Hamilton could easily do the same for whoever takes a shot on his potential without being scared away by the risks.
8. Hiroki Kuroda, SP: 2 years, $24 million
The latest reports indicate that Kuroda will probably accept another one year deal, so even this estimate will probably prove to be a bit too high. Kuroda was a steal for the Yankees last year and remains a quality starter, and any time you can get a quality free agent starter without the risk of a long term deal, that’s a nice addition.
9. David Ortiz, DH – 2 years, $26 million
Why no one wanted to give Ortiz a two year deal last winter is beyond me, but it seems like everyone has realized the error of their ways, and recognize that he’s still got a lot to offer an AL team who needs an offensive upgrade in a hurry. The age and injury concerns limit the length — and risk — of the deal, and at $13 million per year, Ortiz is a bargain. The lack of long term value is the only reason he’s this low.
10. Torii Hunter, OF: 2 years, $20 million
While pretty much everything about Hunter’s career year screams “fluke!” and the stats that measure his core skills are going the wrong way, we can’t ignore the fact that Hunter has put up +11.6 WAR over the last three years, and certainly didn’t look like he was getting old in 2012. On a short term deal at a price that essentially pays him like a league average player, Hunter could provide a nice value buy for any team who wants an short term outfield patch.
11. Ryan Dempster, SP: 3 years, $36 million
Fun fact: Over the last three years, Zack Greinke has a 23% K%, while Ryan Dempster has a 22% K%. Greinke has an ERA- of 96, while Dempster has an ERA- of 99. Sure, Greinke’s better, and he’s younger, but is he that much better than Dempster, to the point where there’s a bidding war for his services while Dempster is basically being seen as a back-end starter near the end of his career? I’d happily take both. At 3/36, Dempster’s basically this year’s Jimmy Rollins – a good player in his thirties who seems to be taking too big of a hit for his age and not getting enough credit for his performance.
12. Brandon McCarthy, SP: 2 years, $20 million
With McCarthy, you can’t talk about him without talking about the fact that his season ended due to brain surgery, and there’s just no way to know if that’s going to have any kind of long lasting effect, either physically or mentally. Juan Nicasio came back from a similarly scary situation, and McCarthy seems like a guy who wants to keep pitching, so but that incident probably is going to keep the offers to short term deals, especially given his arm problems that seem to recur every season. Still, when he’s on the mound, he’s quite good, and I’d imagine most teams in baseball would have to evaluate his medicals if he was available for this price, because 2/20 for a pitcher of McCarthy’s abilities is quite the nice buy.
13. Shane Victorino, OF: 3 years, $30 million
Angel Pagan with a little more speed and a little more fame. They’re very similar players, though Victorino’s reliance on power as a part of his game scares me a little bit, as that seems like a thing that could go away pretty quickly for a little guy in his thirties. Still, at $10 million a year, Victorino would be a nice value for the first year and probably two, and the cost isn’t so high that the third year would be a sinkhole. Any team wanting Pagan that doesn’t get him should look Victorino’s direction.
14. Edwin Jackson, SP: 3 years, $36 million
Jackson hasn’t really changed at all since hitting the market last winter, but the sense is that he’ll get his three year deal this time around, given that he’s still going to be just 29-years-old next year, and he put another quality season on his resume in 2012. He’s not an ace, but he’s a durable innings eater who keeps runs off the board at an above average rate, and there are a lot of teams who could use 200 above average innings at a reasonable price.
15. Roy Oswalt, SP: 1 year, $6 million
2012 was basically a lost year for Oswalt, and he probably learned his lesson about trying to sit out half the season and then come in ready to pitch in a pennant race. I doubt he wants to end his career on that kind of low note, so expect him to be less picky about where he plays this winter, and with a full spring training in a better environment to pitch, he could be quite the nice bounce back option.
16. Joe Blanton, SP: 2 years, $14 million
Over the last three years, Blanton has an xFIP- of 90, which is the fourth best among free agent starting pitchers. The problem is his ERA- of 121 hasn’t come in a particularly small sample size, so we’re dealing with 400 innings where Blanton’s hits and home runs have basically undone all the good he’s accomplished by limiting walks and racking up strikeouts. You generally want to bet on guys with this kind of BB/K rate, and Blanton might turn out to be a steal in a big ballpark with good defensive teammates, but he’s definitely a risk. At this price, it’s a risk worth taking, but you have to know that you might end up with an overpaid BP thrower.
17. Marco Scutaro, IF: 2 years, $16 million
The hero of the Giants postseason is in line for a bit of a raise after his monstrous second half performance, but his age is going to keep the paycheck from getting too out of control. He’s still a slap-hitting 37-year-old with marginal power and some durability question marks, but as he showed for the Giants, contact skills and defense up the middle are a valuable package. The pixie dust will eventually wear off, but $8 million a year for an avearage-ish second baseman, even one at the end of his career, is a decent deal.
18. Maicer Izturis, IF: 2 years, $10 million
I’m pretty sure this is the only Top Free Agent list you’ll see Maicer Izturis on, since he’s an aging utility player coming off a poor season, but for a team that has 400 plate appearances and a weak starting infielder at either second or third, Izturis could be a valuable 10th guy. From 2009 to 2011, he was basically a league average hitter who could handle all three IF positions, and while everything got worse last year, we’re dealing with a half season’s worth of playing time. The larger sample of Izturis’ career peg him as a great part-time guy who won’t kill you if he has to play regularly. $5 million a year for roster flexibility and depth is worth it for a team with some resources.
19. Kevin Youkilis, 3B: 2 years, $18 million
Youkilis’ body seems to be breaking down in front of our eyes, so a two year commitment to a 34-year-old with health problems and regressing skills is a bit of a risk, but we should remember that a downgraded Youkilis is still a pretty decent player. His power is still hanging around and he’s always going to draw his walks, so as long as he can even play a respectable third base and stay in the line-up, he’s a value at this price. I’d rather have him on a one year deal, but if push came to shove, I wouldn’t be a afraid of 2/18.
20. Adam LaRoche, 1B: 3 years, $36 million
I endorse this price with some hesitation, as LaRoche is clearly coming off a career year at age 32, and this could look like a silly overreaction to recent performance if some of the improvement isn’t real. Still, the increased power and reduced K% (relative to league average) give some hope that there’s been sustainable changes made, and he doesn’t have to carry them over for that long to be worth $36 million. If he’s even a +3 win player in 2013 and then ages normally, this is a deal worth doing. If he goes back to being a +2 win guy, then it’s probably a bit of an overpay, but there’s enough potential there to make it worth a shot.
21. Stephen Drew, SS: 2 years, $16 million
Like with Izturis, you’re betting on 2012 not being overly predictive, and going more off his overall body of work than what he was last year. Injuries and the loss of power are concerning, but there aren’t a lot of good shortstops in Major League baseball anymore, and Drew has been one before. This might seem a bit rich for a bounce back guy, but given how thin SS is, he doesn’t have to hit much to be worth $8 million, and if his offense rebounds back to prior levels, there is some upside here.
22. Jeff Keppinger, IF: 2 years, $10 million
Keppinger is essentially Marco Scutaro with terrible defense. Like Scutaro, he almost never swings and misses, and while his offense is based on a quantity of singles, he can get enough of them to be a decent hitter. The problem is that he’s really probably best suited to DH, which isn’t exactly where you want a slap-hitting singles guy, but he can fake it at first and third well enough to be a backup corner infielder, and his skillset makes him an ideal pinch-hitter. He shouldn’t be an everyday guy, but like Izturis, he has value in a 10th man role.
23. Travis Hafner, DH: 1 year, $5 million
With Hafner, we have a DH who simply can’t play more than 100 games a year without something hurting. Last year, he only managed 66 games. Anyone signing Hafner is signing up for a half season of playing time, and maybe less. But, he’s worth having for what he can do when he does play. Last year, he posted a 119 wRC+ while his BABIP sunk to .233, which hasn’t been any kind of career trend for him. His BB/K/ISO were still at elite levels, and while you’d expect an old slow DH to have BABIP problems, even a modest return towards his career average sets him up as a pretty nifty hitter. For a team that can plan on replacing him in-season when he hits the DL but wants the upgrade when he’s healthy enough to play, a low risk one year deal is a nice way to improve the offense.
24. Carlos Villanueva, SP: 2 years, $12 million
Villanueva is this year’s Chris Capuano; a guy who misses more bats than his stuff would suggest and can be a good performer if you think the home run problem might fix itself after a change of scenery. His reputation for wearing down in the second half will likely keep his price down, but any team that wants a lower cost strikeout pitcher with some upside, Villanueva’s a nice fit.
25. Kelly Shoppach, C: 1 year, $3 million
Shoppach’s rising strikeout rate is a concern, and his time as a decent bat against lefties may be coming to an end, but a team looking for a nifty backup catcher who wouldn’t embarrass himself in full-time action could do a lot worse than Shoppach, especially at this price. Given the amount of lousy catchers in baseball right now, Shoppach should be able to do better than this.
And now, for the five crowdsourced contracts that I wouldn’t want to go anywhere near.
1. Delmon Young, DH: 2 years, $16 million
It’s not clear that Delmon Young should even get a Major League contract this winter. He definitely shouldn’t be anyone’s starting DH next year. He’s basically a platoon player at this point in his career, and as a right-handed bat, that means he should play a couple of times per week. Giving him $8 million a year is just lighting cash on fire. Giving him $8 million a year for two years would be one of the dumbest decisions in recent history. I think the game has gotten smarter than this, and I don’t see Young coming anywhere near this price. Which is good, becuase this price is nutso.
2. Kyle Lohse, SP: 4 years, $52 million
Who wants to pay $13 million per year for the age 34-37 years of a pitcher whose career year was based on a low BABIP? Not me. Lohse is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who can soak up innings and occasionally give you a strong season when things go right, but at his age, that’s worth $10 million a year for a couple of years, not $13 million for four. Run away, GMs, run away.
3. Mike Napoli, C/1B: 3 years, $36 million
If you think there’s a good chance that 2011 Napoli will re-emerge, this kind of deal would make sense, but 2012 Napoli should scare teams away from a three year deal. His strikeout went went up 50%, and while he still hit 24 home runs, the doubles went away entirely, so his distribution of extra base hits probably overstates his actual power levels now. He’s the classic old-player-skills type, so while he’ll be just 31, he’s also got a catcher’s wear and tear on his body. Just too many red flags for me here. I think he ends up in Boston on a one year deal that makes sense for everyone, but if the price is really three years, look elsewhere.
4. Michael Bourn, CF: 5 years, $70 million
I wrote about my concerns with Bourn’s future performance a month ago, as I just don’t see a lot of historical precedent for guys succeeding in their thirties with a high K/low power offensive skillset. Those things don’t go together, so if Bourn is going to remain an offensive threat, he’s going to be something of a trailblazer, which isn’t really what you’re looking for when giving out five year deals. As mentioned, there are quite a few average bat/decent glove CFs on the market this year, and most of them will come a lot cheaper than this. Given his contact problems and price tag, I’d rather go another direction.
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP: 1 year, $4 million
Sure, it’s just a one year flier, so why not? How about becomes there’s no evidence that even a healthy Dice-K is any good, and he inflicts pain on everyone watching him pitch. The terrible command combined with 10 minutes between pitches make his starts torture for fans of both sides, and there’s just not enough potential here to justify sucking the life out of the game every five days. There are better, younger, cheaper pitchers who aren’t horrendous to watch. Sign one of them instead. Boycot Dice-K. Please.
So, there you have it – the 25 best and five worst values of the off-season, based on the crowdsourced projections and my best guess as to how these guys will perform going forward. Given that there are five times as many values as landmines, you can probably guess that I think the crowdsourced values are too low, and I expect prices to be higher across the board for most of these guys. But, even with that expectation, I still think there are going to be some decent buys in free agency, especially for a team looking for a center fielder or a back-end starting pitcher. This is a pretty deep free agent class, even if it’s not strong at the top, and an organization willing to wait until January will likely find themselves picking from some decent leftovers.
Newman’s Own: Best Corner OF’s Of 2012.
Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.
Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen
The Shortstops
1. Tyler Austin, New York Yankees
Of position prospects in the Yankees organization, no player has a higher floor than Tyler Austin. He profiles as a solid average regular with room for a bit more. On a list which lacks impact talent, he’s the safest bet to hit for both enough average and power to profile as an everyday player. Having seen the likes of Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton and Jason Heyward at the minor league level, no player on this list projects for that kind of impact potential.
Read my previous piece on Tyler Austin.
2. Rymer Liriano, San Diego Padres
My look at Liriano was extremely brief, but one has no choice but to be impressed by his compact, powerful frame and explosive hands. His need for extended periods of adjustment after earning promotions concerns me a bit, as does his swing mechanics. However, the payoff if things break right is enough for him to rank second on this list.
3. Michael Choice, Oakland Athletics
In March, I found myself in Phoenix watching Michael Choice taking reps in right field thinking, “That’s going to hurt his value.” Little did I know a power outage in the Double-A Texas League would drop him even further. Before succumbing to a season ending injury, Choice was in the midst of a .435/.493/.710 July, so I’m cutting him a little slack for another season.
4. Jonathan Galvez, San Diego Padres
The obligatory, “At least one tool shed needs to be highly ranked” pick, Jonathan Galvez has a lean, athletic frame that makes scouts swoon. He made a great first impression when I saw him in Arizona and had a fine, albeit injury shortened season in Double-A. If this list were based on tools alone, he’d be in the top-3.
5. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers (CF)
Pederson is a center fielder on paper, but poor route running and bad reads off of batted balls in Double-A forces me to slide him down the defensive spectrum. In person, Pederson presents as less physical than I was expecting based on his 18 home run, 26 stolen base campaign in the California League. However, I came away very impressed with his bat control and ability to command the strike zone at such a young age.
6. Keury De La Cruz, Boston Red Sox
De La Cruz has holes in his offensive game which very well might catch up to him at the upper levels, but there may not be a better pure hitter on this list. One scout called it a, “65 hit tool” which is very high praise. De La Cruz’ defense lags far behind his bat. For me, he’d rank higher if I could envision a scenario where De La Cruz could man center field in a pinch. Unfortunately, it’s a below average glove in left at this point, so center is just not a viable option.
7. Todd Cunningham, Atlanta Braves (CF)
The anti-Jonathan Galvez, Cunningham is short on tools, but has a big league floor due to advanced baseball skills. He’s certainly a “tweener” for me, but he did spend the 2012 season manning center field which is definitely a positive considering I saw a player without a position when Cunningham debuted in 2010. At present, Cunningham’s ability to switch hit, make consistent contact and play all three outfield spots leaves him with an ideal fourth outfielder profile.
8. Alfredo Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
I’ll be the first to admit I had no idea who Alfredo Marte in April when I traveled to Chattanooga to see Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer on back-to-back evenings. At one point, I turned to a friend in attendance and said, “That Marte guy is going to be a fourth outfielder for somebody.” Without a doubt, Marte had a fine season at the Double-A level. But at 23, he was also a little older than most legit prospects who pass through. He’s a big leaguer, but his role is still to be determined.
9. Jaff Decker, San Diego Padres
When prospect followers point to walk rate at the lower levels as a sign of prospect “awesomeness”, I find myself wanting to serve a heaping portion of Jaff Decker. While he continues to post eye popping on base percentages, talk of limitations in other areas seems to be catching up to him. Now 22 and coming off of a season lost to injury, I have no choice but to move him down this list.
10. Ariel Ovando, Houston Astros
Ovando was a bohemoth in person with room to fill out his frame. At present, he has holes in his swing and is a defensive liability. At 18, it doesn’t much matter because he’s far ahead of other young, Latin players I’ve seen. Ovando is ranked 10th on this list due to his having the floor of a Single-A wash out, but his power ceiling is also as high as anybody ranked. A less conservative prospect writer would have Ovando ranked much higher.
11. James Darnell, San Diego Padres
At 26, time is running out for James Darnell. Like Decker, his season was cut short due to injury at a time when he seemed ready to break through for good. The University of South Carolina product is a big leaguer, but will open 2013 at an age (26) when a five-to-six year career as a bench player is a great outcome. I like the power potential and ability to draw a walk, but “old player skills” point to a decent floor without a ton of upward mobility.
12. Williams Jerez, Boston Red Sox (CF)
This rank is 99.9% projection and 0.1% production. At 6-foot-4, 190 pounds with the classic left-handed stroke, Darryl Strawberry was the first name that popped into my head when watching Jerez in batting practice. Of course physical resemblance means little until the on field production is there to match. Still, I would welcome Jerez into my organization with open arms on the chance things come together even though they probably never will.
13. Marc Krauss, Houston Astros
After a 2011 look in Chattanooga, I was convinced Marc Krauss was a prospect dud. He was slow, presented with a ton of swing-and-miss, and the power was less than I was expecting. There was nothing to like. A second look in 2012 featured Krauss raking Double-A pitching with a much improved approach and shorter path to the baseball. I still can’t shake the memories of 2011 Krauss, but he now profiles as a big leaguer for me instead of a quality organizational piece.
14. Kentrail Davis, Milwaukee Brewers
I really want to like Kentrail Davis as a prospect, but his all-around game includes just as many negatives as positives. He has speed, but his body type leaves him unlikely to maintain it. Davis walks at a strong clip, but strikes out too much. His offensive game is well-balanced… for a center fielder. Davis is an outfielder with a “tweener” profile and “extra guy” projection at this point.
15. Fred Ford, Kansas City Royals
My look at Ford was brief, but he has impressive size and power potential. The strikeouts are a major red flag, but I’d take a shot on him just to see how he develops. In 2013, I’ll receive ample opportunity to follow up on Ford as he’s likely to be Lexington bound.
16. Gilbert Gomez, New York Mets (CF)
On a bad Savannah team, Gomez stuck out as a legitimate big league prospect. Once again, it’s a fourth outfielder profile, but his advanced approach and wiry frame allows for some projection. My issue with Gomez is that he’s slow and will have to move to a corner outfield spot at physical maturity, if not sooner.
17. Kendrick Perkins, Boston Red Sox
Seeing Perkins’ 35.5% strikeout rate in the New York-Penn League took me by surprise as he barreled the baseball as well as any prospect on his team when watching Lowell play in Auburn. At present, he’s a bad body prospect who would benefit by dropping 20 pounds or so. Perkins will always have to work hard to maintain his frame, but I’ve seen prospects transform physicall in a single off-season. I hope to see the same from Perkins if he’s assigned to Greenville next spring.
18. Jordan Akins, Texas Rangers
Akins has top-3 tools on this list without question, but how does a prospect rectify a 162/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio? Is that even possible? If I can’t picture a true path to the big leagues, which I can’t, then I have no choice but to rank Akins last. Unless he gives up baseball for the gridiron which is a distinct possibility, he’ll be given many years to figure it out at the minor league level. I’m just doubtful he ever will.
Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen
The Shortstops
1. Tyler Austin, New York Yankees
Of position prospects in the Yankees organization, no player has a higher floor than Tyler Austin. He profiles as a solid average regular with room for a bit more. On a list which lacks impact talent, he’s the safest bet to hit for both enough average and power to profile as an everyday player. Having seen the likes of Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton and Jason Heyward at the minor league level, no player on this list projects for that kind of impact potential.
Read my previous piece on Tyler Austin.
2. Rymer Liriano, San Diego Padres
My look at Liriano was extremely brief, but one has no choice but to be impressed by his compact, powerful frame and explosive hands. His need for extended periods of adjustment after earning promotions concerns me a bit, as does his swing mechanics. However, the payoff if things break right is enough for him to rank second on this list.
3. Michael Choice, Oakland Athletics
In March, I found myself in Phoenix watching Michael Choice taking reps in right field thinking, “That’s going to hurt his value.” Little did I know a power outage in the Double-A Texas League would drop him even further. Before succumbing to a season ending injury, Choice was in the midst of a .435/.493/.710 July, so I’m cutting him a little slack for another season.
4. Jonathan Galvez, San Diego Padres
The obligatory, “At least one tool shed needs to be highly ranked” pick, Jonathan Galvez has a lean, athletic frame that makes scouts swoon. He made a great first impression when I saw him in Arizona and had a fine, albeit injury shortened season in Double-A. If this list were based on tools alone, he’d be in the top-3.
5. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers (CF)
Pederson is a center fielder on paper, but poor route running and bad reads off of batted balls in Double-A forces me to slide him down the defensive spectrum. In person, Pederson presents as less physical than I was expecting based on his 18 home run, 26 stolen base campaign in the California League. However, I came away very impressed with his bat control and ability to command the strike zone at such a young age.
6. Keury De La Cruz, Boston Red Sox
De La Cruz has holes in his offensive game which very well might catch up to him at the upper levels, but there may not be a better pure hitter on this list. One scout called it a, “65 hit tool” which is very high praise. De La Cruz’ defense lags far behind his bat. For me, he’d rank higher if I could envision a scenario where De La Cruz could man center field in a pinch. Unfortunately, it’s a below average glove in left at this point, so center is just not a viable option.
7. Todd Cunningham, Atlanta Braves (CF)
The anti-Jonathan Galvez, Cunningham is short on tools, but has a big league floor due to advanced baseball skills. He’s certainly a “tweener” for me, but he did spend the 2012 season manning center field which is definitely a positive considering I saw a player without a position when Cunningham debuted in 2010. At present, Cunningham’s ability to switch hit, make consistent contact and play all three outfield spots leaves him with an ideal fourth outfielder profile.
8. Alfredo Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
I’ll be the first to admit I had no idea who Alfredo Marte in April when I traveled to Chattanooga to see Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer on back-to-back evenings. At one point, I turned to a friend in attendance and said, “That Marte guy is going to be a fourth outfielder for somebody.” Without a doubt, Marte had a fine season at the Double-A level. But at 23, he was also a little older than most legit prospects who pass through. He’s a big leaguer, but his role is still to be determined.
9. Jaff Decker, San Diego Padres
When prospect followers point to walk rate at the lower levels as a sign of prospect “awesomeness”, I find myself wanting to serve a heaping portion of Jaff Decker. While he continues to post eye popping on base percentages, talk of limitations in other areas seems to be catching up to him. Now 22 and coming off of a season lost to injury, I have no choice but to move him down this list.
10. Ariel Ovando, Houston Astros
Ovando was a bohemoth in person with room to fill out his frame. At present, he has holes in his swing and is a defensive liability. At 18, it doesn’t much matter because he’s far ahead of other young, Latin players I’ve seen. Ovando is ranked 10th on this list due to his having the floor of a Single-A wash out, but his power ceiling is also as high as anybody ranked. A less conservative prospect writer would have Ovando ranked much higher.
11. James Darnell, San Diego Padres
At 26, time is running out for James Darnell. Like Decker, his season was cut short due to injury at a time when he seemed ready to break through for good. The University of South Carolina product is a big leaguer, but will open 2013 at an age (26) when a five-to-six year career as a bench player is a great outcome. I like the power potential and ability to draw a walk, but “old player skills” point to a decent floor without a ton of upward mobility.
12. Williams Jerez, Boston Red Sox (CF)
This rank is 99.9% projection and 0.1% production. At 6-foot-4, 190 pounds with the classic left-handed stroke, Darryl Strawberry was the first name that popped into my head when watching Jerez in batting practice. Of course physical resemblance means little until the on field production is there to match. Still, I would welcome Jerez into my organization with open arms on the chance things come together even though they probably never will.
13. Marc Krauss, Houston Astros
After a 2011 look in Chattanooga, I was convinced Marc Krauss was a prospect dud. He was slow, presented with a ton of swing-and-miss, and the power was less than I was expecting. There was nothing to like. A second look in 2012 featured Krauss raking Double-A pitching with a much improved approach and shorter path to the baseball. I still can’t shake the memories of 2011 Krauss, but he now profiles as a big leaguer for me instead of a quality organizational piece.
14. Kentrail Davis, Milwaukee Brewers
I really want to like Kentrail Davis as a prospect, but his all-around game includes just as many negatives as positives. He has speed, but his body type leaves him unlikely to maintain it. Davis walks at a strong clip, but strikes out too much. His offensive game is well-balanced… for a center fielder. Davis is an outfielder with a “tweener” profile and “extra guy” projection at this point.
15. Fred Ford, Kansas City Royals
My look at Ford was brief, but he has impressive size and power potential. The strikeouts are a major red flag, but I’d take a shot on him just to see how he develops. In 2013, I’ll receive ample opportunity to follow up on Ford as he’s likely to be Lexington bound.
16. Gilbert Gomez, New York Mets (CF)
On a bad Savannah team, Gomez stuck out as a legitimate big league prospect. Once again, it’s a fourth outfielder profile, but his advanced approach and wiry frame allows for some projection. My issue with Gomez is that he’s slow and will have to move to a corner outfield spot at physical maturity, if not sooner.
17. Kendrick Perkins, Boston Red Sox
Seeing Perkins’ 35.5% strikeout rate in the New York-Penn League took me by surprise as he barreled the baseball as well as any prospect on his team when watching Lowell play in Auburn. At present, he’s a bad body prospect who would benefit by dropping 20 pounds or so. Perkins will always have to work hard to maintain his frame, but I’ve seen prospects transform physicall in a single off-season. I hope to see the same from Perkins if he’s assigned to Greenville next spring.
18. Jordan Akins, Texas Rangers
Akins has top-3 tools on this list without question, but how does a prospect rectify a 162/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio? Is that even possible? If I can’t picture a true path to the big leagues, which I can’t, then I have no choice but to rank Akins last. Unless he gives up baseball for the gridiron which is a distinct possibility, he’ll be given many years to figure it out at the minor league level. I’m just doubtful he ever will.
The Trap of Overpaying.
Yesterday, the Royals acquired Ervin Santana, agreeing to pick up his $13 million option (of which they’ll be paying $12 million) after acquiring him from the Angels, who would chosen to make him a free agent instead. The Angels made it pretty clear – to them, Santana wasn’t worth $12 million for 2013. They would rather allocate that money towards a bigger offer for Zack Greinke, and if that fails, they’ll likely attempt to replace Santana with another free agent.
In other words, the Angels have options. They’re a winning franchise in a major metropolitan city with nice weather, so attracting free agents isn’t a big challenge, so long as they’re offering something close to market value. The Angels can afford to take calculated risks with players, knowing that their pool of potential replacements is pretty large.
That doesn’t describe the Royals at all. They’ve lost 90+ games in eight of the last nine years, and haven’t had a winning season since 2003. They haven’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 1988-1989. A good chunk of the players currently active in MLB weren’t alive the last time the Royals made the playoffs (1985). They play in middle America, and Kansas City isn’t known as a melting pot of society. If the Angels and Royals make a player the same offer, odds are pretty good that most players would choose to the Angels. So, any time a mid-to-small market team with a track record of losing signs a free agent, you always hear that “they had to overpay” in order to get that player.
And while it’s a true statement, it doesn’t mean that these teams should actually do it.
In general, these franchises that have trouble attracting free agents have below average payrolls, because the revenues they generate from their television contracts aren’t as large as major urban teams can command, and their history of losing has suppressed attendance and stunted the growth of the fan base. Last year, these franchises ran out payrolls between $55 million (San Diego) and $81 million (Baltimore). The new television money that kicks in starting next year will likely push the bottom end of the payroll threshold up, but that would only serve to push the scale to somewhere around $60-$90 million at the low end.
Let’s just take $75 million as an estimated payroll for these kinds of teams. At that payroll target, overspending in order to land a free agent doesn’t make sense in almost every scenario.
In order to be a legitimate contender, a team needs something like +40 WAR, and really, you want to be closer to +50. The Orioles and A’s both had +41 WAR last year, the lowest totals for any of the 10 teams that qualified for the postseason. On a $75 million budget, that means you need to be paying an aggregate of less than $2 million per win.
The market price for wins in free agency is somewhere $5 million, and probably headed up towards closer to $6 million this winter. That’s what teams with bigger payrolls or clubs who are looking for one player to put them over the top are going to be paying. So, if you’re Kansas City or Pittsburgh or Cleveland, and you’re trying to lure a player to your town, you’re probably going to have to outbid a winning coastal team, and come in closer to $7 or $8 million per win.
But, unfortunately, the math doesn’t work very well if you start adding in guys who cost that much. Say, for instance, a team in this situation wants to buy five wins in free agency – that’s probably going to cost them in excess of $30-$35 million once they put out offers strong enough to win the bidding. That leaves somewhere between $40-$45 million for the rest of the roster, and a deficit of at least 35 wins, and probably more like 40 if you want to avoid the play-in game.
In other words, a couple of “necessary overpays” in free agency leaves you needing to build out the rest of your roster at something around $1 million per win. And I don’t care how good your farm system is, that’s pretty close to impossible. You’d have to have practically an entire roster of 0-3 service time players, with only a few arbitration eligible guys sprinkled in, and it’s just not that common for guys to be elite players in their first couple of years in the big leagues.
Let’s just look at the Rays, for instance. They’re the poster child for recent success due to a strong farm system. Last year, they racked up +49 WAR on a payroll of $64 million, so they’re the blueprint for success right now. Their internally developed core players — David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis on the pitching side, and Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce among their everyday players — combined for +33 WAR at a cost of $33 million.
You really can’t do any better than that. That’s multiple top five picks panning out exceptionally well, getting Evan Longoria to sign the most team friendly contract in baseball history, and hitting a home run on some late picks or steals from other organization who turn into useful contributors before they hit arbitration. The absolute best internal core anyone has developed in recent history still comes out to $1 million per win, simply because good players require raises.
With that group and a $75 million payroll, you’d have $42 million to spend and still need eight wins at the bare minimum to put yourself in playoff contention. Even if we bump that budget up by another $10 million, you’d have to buy at least eight wins for $52 million, which is $6.5 million per win. That puts you on the bubble, making you the Orioles or the A’s. If you want to get closer to the rest of the playoff contender, you need something more like 12 more wins. Even with an $85 million payroll, that means you have to get those wins at an average cost of $4.3 million each. And that’s if you have the Rays core in place, which no one besides the Rays actually have, and even they won’t have it for much longer.
The idea that a team “has to overspend” to sign free agents because of their market is based in some truth, but there’s a logical leap required — that a team in this position has to sign market value free agents to begin with — that isn’t true. That thought process is a trap. If you’re dead set on signing free agents without accounting for how you’re going to build a winner around those free agents with the money you have left after you sign them, you’re pushing your organization further away from winning, even as you marginally improve the roster at the same time.
The market price for wins at the high end of the free agent market is set by teams who don’t have these constrictions, or who are at a spot on the curve where the return on each additional win is very high. For a team that isn’t yet on the bubble of playoff contention, and who doesn’t have the payroll flexibility to be able to afford market price wins, overpaying for a free agent is more harmful than it is helpful.
The choice isn’t overpay or do nothing, as it is often framed in this debate. There are values to be had in free agency, and there are values to be had in trades. A team can win with this kind of payroll. They just can’t do it if they’re constantly committing large chunks of that payroll to players who are only going to return a couple of marginal wins. Overpaying a free agent is a choice, not a requirement. And for teams in this payroll range, it’s usually a bad choice.
In other words, the Angels have options. They’re a winning franchise in a major metropolitan city with nice weather, so attracting free agents isn’t a big challenge, so long as they’re offering something close to market value. The Angels can afford to take calculated risks with players, knowing that their pool of potential replacements is pretty large.
That doesn’t describe the Royals at all. They’ve lost 90+ games in eight of the last nine years, and haven’t had a winning season since 2003. They haven’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 1988-1989. A good chunk of the players currently active in MLB weren’t alive the last time the Royals made the playoffs (1985). They play in middle America, and Kansas City isn’t known as a melting pot of society. If the Angels and Royals make a player the same offer, odds are pretty good that most players would choose to the Angels. So, any time a mid-to-small market team with a track record of losing signs a free agent, you always hear that “they had to overpay” in order to get that player.
And while it’s a true statement, it doesn’t mean that these teams should actually do it.
In general, these franchises that have trouble attracting free agents have below average payrolls, because the revenues they generate from their television contracts aren’t as large as major urban teams can command, and their history of losing has suppressed attendance and stunted the growth of the fan base. Last year, these franchises ran out payrolls between $55 million (San Diego) and $81 million (Baltimore). The new television money that kicks in starting next year will likely push the bottom end of the payroll threshold up, but that would only serve to push the scale to somewhere around $60-$90 million at the low end.
Let’s just take $75 million as an estimated payroll for these kinds of teams. At that payroll target, overspending in order to land a free agent doesn’t make sense in almost every scenario.
In order to be a legitimate contender, a team needs something like +40 WAR, and really, you want to be closer to +50. The Orioles and A’s both had +41 WAR last year, the lowest totals for any of the 10 teams that qualified for the postseason. On a $75 million budget, that means you need to be paying an aggregate of less than $2 million per win.
The market price for wins in free agency is somewhere $5 million, and probably headed up towards closer to $6 million this winter. That’s what teams with bigger payrolls or clubs who are looking for one player to put them over the top are going to be paying. So, if you’re Kansas City or Pittsburgh or Cleveland, and you’re trying to lure a player to your town, you’re probably going to have to outbid a winning coastal team, and come in closer to $7 or $8 million per win.
But, unfortunately, the math doesn’t work very well if you start adding in guys who cost that much. Say, for instance, a team in this situation wants to buy five wins in free agency – that’s probably going to cost them in excess of $30-$35 million once they put out offers strong enough to win the bidding. That leaves somewhere between $40-$45 million for the rest of the roster, and a deficit of at least 35 wins, and probably more like 40 if you want to avoid the play-in game.
In other words, a couple of “necessary overpays” in free agency leaves you needing to build out the rest of your roster at something around $1 million per win. And I don’t care how good your farm system is, that’s pretty close to impossible. You’d have to have practically an entire roster of 0-3 service time players, with only a few arbitration eligible guys sprinkled in, and it’s just not that common for guys to be elite players in their first couple of years in the big leagues.
Let’s just look at the Rays, for instance. They’re the poster child for recent success due to a strong farm system. Last year, they racked up +49 WAR on a payroll of $64 million, so they’re the blueprint for success right now. Their internally developed core players — David Price, James Shields, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis on the pitching side, and Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce among their everyday players — combined for +33 WAR at a cost of $33 million.
You really can’t do any better than that. That’s multiple top five picks panning out exceptionally well, getting Evan Longoria to sign the most team friendly contract in baseball history, and hitting a home run on some late picks or steals from other organization who turn into useful contributors before they hit arbitration. The absolute best internal core anyone has developed in recent history still comes out to $1 million per win, simply because good players require raises.
With that group and a $75 million payroll, you’d have $42 million to spend and still need eight wins at the bare minimum to put yourself in playoff contention. Even if we bump that budget up by another $10 million, you’d have to buy at least eight wins for $52 million, which is $6.5 million per win. That puts you on the bubble, making you the Orioles or the A’s. If you want to get closer to the rest of the playoff contender, you need something more like 12 more wins. Even with an $85 million payroll, that means you have to get those wins at an average cost of $4.3 million each. And that’s if you have the Rays core in place, which no one besides the Rays actually have, and even they won’t have it for much longer.
The idea that a team “has to overspend” to sign free agents because of their market is based in some truth, but there’s a logical leap required — that a team in this position has to sign market value free agents to begin with — that isn’t true. That thought process is a trap. If you’re dead set on signing free agents without accounting for how you’re going to build a winner around those free agents with the money you have left after you sign them, you’re pushing your organization further away from winning, even as you marginally improve the roster at the same time.
The market price for wins at the high end of the free agent market is set by teams who don’t have these constrictions, or who are at a spot on the curve where the return on each additional win is very high. For a team that isn’t yet on the bubble of playoff contention, and who doesn’t have the payroll flexibility to be able to afford market price wins, overpaying for a free agent is more harmful than it is helpful.
The choice isn’t overpay or do nothing, as it is often framed in this debate. There are values to be had in free agency, and there are values to be had in trades. A team can win with this kind of payroll. They just can’t do it if they’re constantly committing large chunks of that payroll to players who are only going to return a couple of marginal wins. Overpaying a free agent is a choice, not a requirement. And for teams in this payroll range, it’s usually a bad choice.
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Still irritated the Dodgers basically handed the Sox a blank slate. Was looking forward to watching them flounder around with those terrible contracts for years to come. Hope LAD enjoys paying the power hitter who doesn't hit for power anymore, and the speed guy who isn't that speedy anymore.
And they signed a right-fielder who can't hit lefties.
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
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Cubs had a trade in place for Haren centered around Marmol of all people...seems like it's off.
Keith Law's top FA list: 31-50 first, 30-11 second then the top 10.
Keith Law's top FA list: 31-50 first, 30-11 second then the top 10.
For the seventh year, Keith Law breaks down the top 50 free agents, this time for the Class of 2012-13. Law's reports are based on firsthand observations. He has been the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. since 2006. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
This year's free-agent crop is very thin at the highest tier -- after the top player, everyone has a significant question mark in the short term as well as questions over the long term -- but there's great depth further down the list, especially in relief pitchers, quality platoon or bench players, and even some back-end starters. There's a lot of money floating around in baseball right now, but throwing it at the best the free-agent market has to offer might be the worst strategy in a market where players in the top 10 are riskier than normal.
Note: Ages are as of Opening Day 2013.
Law's complete top 50: 1-10 Insider | 11-30 Insider | 31-50 Insider
Rank Player
31 Joakim Soria
Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Kansas City Royals Status:
Terms:
Joakim Soria
Joakim Soria
#48 RP
Kansas City Royals
2011 STATS
GM60
W5
L5
BB17
K60
ERA4.03
The Royals declined their 2013 option on Soria, ending what has to be a disappointing chapter for their fans -- the team never tried him in the rotation (even though he has the stuff for it), and never flipped him for prospects when he was healthy and a closer was nothing more than a luxury for the team.
Even when closing, Soria pitched a lot like a starter, establishing his fastball early and mixing in various other pitches -- in 2011, he showed four off-speed pitches -- but still getting most of his swings and misses on the four-seamer and the cutter. That deception would have played well in the rotation, but after two elbow ligament replacement surgeries, Soria is probably destined to finish his career in the bullpen, and is a good candidate for a two-year deal with incentives for staying healthy.
Rank Player
32 Marco Scutaro
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 2B
'12 team: San Francisco Giants Status:
Terms:
Marco Scutaro
Marco Scutaro
#19 2B
San Francisco Giants
2012 STATS
GM156
HR7
RBI74
R87
OBP.348
AVG.306
Scutaro hasn't posted a full-season OPS of .800 anywhere in his career, so I think we can assume that his .362/.385/.473 (BA/OBP/SLG) run in 61 games for San Francisco isn't a sudden leap forward in ability at age 36.
He's a capable second baseman, sure-handed but lacking the range he had when he was still with the Jays, and while he's not a high-walk guy he does have strong plate discipline, rarely expanding the zone and making a lot of contact within it. He could be an average second baseman for another year or two, although his age would make me wary of any deal of more than one season.
Rank Player
33 Carlos Villanueva
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Toronto Blue Jays Status:
Terms:
Carlos Villanueva
Carlos Villanueva
#33 RP
Toronto Blue Jays
2012 STATS
GM38
W7
L7
BB46
K122
ERA4.16
Villanueva is a rare bird, a true swingman who's good enough to start on a part-time basis but probably wouldn't make most teams' full-time rotations.
When he starts, he doesn't lose much velocity -- his fastball is fringy in either role -- but his slider isn't as sharp and his changeup doesn't have the same fade, with both pitches finishing up in the zone too often. That said, there's substantial value in a multi-inning reliever with good control who can take a few turns as a starter and who misses enough bats to help in either role, enough value that he's worth giving two years.
Rank Player
34 Jose Valverde
Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Detroit Tigers Status:
Terms:
Jose Valverde
Jose Valverde
#46 RP
Detroit Tigers
2012 STATS
GM71
W3
L4
BB27
K48
ERA3.78
Valverde's self-immolation in October was just an extreme end to a season that saw his command slipping and his splitter less effective, reducing him to ordinary reliever status despite the high save totals and so-called "perfect" season in 2012.
He's a reclamation project for a team willing to see if he can relocate the strike zone without throwing fastballs up and over the plate, and there's a real risk with a reliever who has lost it like this that the underlying reason is physical, not mental or mechanical.
Rank Player
35 Francisco Liriano
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: LHP
'12 team: Chicago White Sox Status:
Terms:
Francisco Liriano
Francisco Liriano
#58 SP
Chicago White Sox
2012 STATS
GM34
W6
L12
BB87
K167
ERA5.34
Liriano's results never seem to line up with his peripherals or his raw stuff, largely because he's not the same guy when working from the stretch, with consistently worse numbers when he has men on base.
He has an above-average fastball and a slider that flashes plus, missing left-handers' bats, but it's hard to project him to a 'pen role because of the trouble he has with runners on. There's a lot of temptation for teams in a 29-year-old lefty who throws hard and has a strong breaking ball, but there's a large obstacle preventing him from being a league-average starter or shutdown reliever.
Rank Player
36 Russell Martin
Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: C
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Russell Martin
Russell Martin
#55 C
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM133
HR21
RBI53
R50
OBP.311
AVG.211
The catching market is atrocious -- I may have mentioned that elsewhere -- leaving Martin one of the few options for a team looking for a full-time solution at the spot.
He's a solid defender, an average thrower who receives well, especially in framing pitches. He still works the count and will take a walk, but his bat speed has been down for several years now and he'll be lucky to slug .400 outside of Yankee Stadium. He's an emergency starter, good for a team that lacks an internal candidate, but a backup on a better-quality roster. Fun with arbitrary end points: If you throw out Martin's huge first month with the Yankees, he hit .217/.312/.387 in 876 plate appearances with New York.
Rank Player
37 Ryu Hyun-Jin
Age: 26 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: LHP
'12 team: Hanwha Eagles Status:
Terms:
Fujikawa
Ryu Hyun-Jin
#99 LHP
Hanwha Eagles
2012 STATS
GM48
W6
L6
BB46
K210
ERA2.66
Ryu will be posted by his KBO team, the Hanwha Eagles, and should attract interest from just about every club because of his potential as a reliever who can get hitters on both sides of the plate out.
He is a thick-bodied lefty who has been a starter in Korea, working with a drop-and-drive delivery but with very late elbow pronation, and in the rotation his fastball is just average at 88-91. He does have a plus changeup with good arm speed and a fringy curveball in the upper 70s, which is a better left-on-left option right now than his slider. I don't love the arm action and he had Tommy John surgery when he was in high school, but if he moves to the bullpen he could work in the low 90s with an out pitch in the change, a better option than being a back-end starter with some question about durability.
Rank Player
38 Kyle Farnsworth
Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
Kyle Farnsworth
Kyle Farnsworth
#43 RP
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM34
W1
L6
BB14
K25
ERA4.00
He still throws hard, and after missing half the year with an elbow strain, he was pretty close to what he'd been for Tampa Bay the year before. He had a brutal four-walk outing a few days after his late-June return, and then walked just seven men unintentionally the rest of the season, punching out 22 and allowing just one homer in 25 innings.
Farnsworth has a pretty simple plan -- hope to get ahead with the fastball, then finish guys off with sliders, using the cutter to get around the fact that you could paint highway stripes with that straight four-seamer. For one year, assuming he passes a physical, he's a good reclamation project for some team because the Rays already did part of the work.
Rank Player
39 Mike Adams
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Mike Adams
Mike Adams
#37 RP
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM61
W5
L3
BB17
K45
ERA3.27
Adams is a cutter machine who was dominant in the National League with the Padres but has been merely good since coming over to the AL and pitching in a less friendly home park.
He does use his curveball more often now, running it up to 80 with a hard downward break, giving him another weapon to keep him from overusing his four-seamer, which has average velocity and below-average life.
Adams had surgery to remove a rib in October, addressing thoracic outlet syndrome that was causing numbness in his pitching hand, and could miss a little bit of 2013 depending on how his recovery goes. He's a solid option for the seventh or eighth inning.
Rank Player
40 Jeff Keppinger
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: IF
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
Jeff Keppinger
Jeff Keppinger
#7 3B
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM115
HR9
RBI40
R46
OBP.367
AVG.325
Keppinger has one major baseball skill -- he can make contact, and does so pretty well with all pitch types. He doesn't walk and has minimal power, but he's never struck out in 10 percent of his plate appearances at any level of pro ball.
His main weakness is fastballs on the inner half, since he doesn't have the strength to pull them or the hand speed to stay inside the ball, but pitchers who can't locate there risk getting too much plate and giving up a line drive. He can fake second and third base and can handle either outfield corner, giving him value as a super-sub who gets 400-500 PAs but isn't a strict regular anywhere.
He'll play at 33 next year so a two-year deal would be the maximum I'd offer.
Rank Player
41 Jonathan Broxton
Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Cincinnati Reds Status:
Terms:
Jonathan Broxton
Jonathan Broxton
#50 RP
Cincinnati Reds
2012 STATS
GM60
W4
L5
BB17
K45
ERA2.48
After Broxton returned in the NL in July, his ground-ball rate dropped closer to his career norm while his strikeout rate jumped and he stopped walking guys.
The sample with Cincinnati was smaller, but he was much more aggressive when behind in the count after the move from Kansas City, especially when he was in a three-ball count. (Interesting if possibly meaningless factoid: Broxton walked just one batter in his last 18 appearances of the year.)
His slider still isn't back to where it was before his injury, but he has shown he can pitch more effectively with his fastball than he has in years, and if the slider should return he could be worth up to two wins above replacement.
Rank Player
42 Stephen Drew
Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: SS
'12 team: Oakland Athletics Status:
Terms:
Stephen Drew
Stephen Drew
#5 SS
Oakland Athletics
2012 STATS
GM79
HR7
RBI28
R38
OBP.309
AVG.223
Drew needed to get out of Arizona one way or another after club officials questioned his toughness and work ethic when he took longer than expected to return from a catastrophic leg injury, the type of makeup concerns that also dogged his brother for most of his career.
More relevant here is the probability that Drew will never be an above-average defender at short again given the injury, and the question of whether his bat would play every day at second. He's still a good fastball hitter who has a little pop, probably 15-20 homers in a neutral park (that is, not Oakland), and who can draw a few walks because he rarely expands the zone.
At short, that's a potential above-average regular. I think at second base he's at least an everyday player once he learns the position, but until we know for sure that he can handle the position it's hard to see a team guaranteeing him multiple years.
Rank Player
43 Joe Blanton
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Los Angeles Dodgers Status:
Terms:
Joe Blanton
Joe Blanton
#56 SP
Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 STATS
GM31
W10
L13
BB34
K166
ERA4.71
Blanton's fringy fastball was becoming more hittable over time, so he has slightly reinvented himself as a primarily cutter/curveball starter who pounds the zone with a five-pitch repertoire and hopes that the many home runs he gives up are largely solo shots.
An elbow injury in 2011 that didn't require surgery is the only blemish on his record of durability, but innings are valuable only if they don't involve giving up lots of runs, and Blanton's stuff makes him fairly homer-prone across the board.
Perhaps the reinvention continues and he ditches the four-seamer -- his most taterrific pitch -- entirely, but as currently constituted, he's a fifth starter.
Rank Player
44 Jonny Gomes
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: DH
'12 team: Oakland Athletics Status:
Terms:
Jonny Gomes
Jonny Gomes
#31 DH
Oakland Athletics
2012 STATS
GM99
HR18
RBI47
R46
OBP.377
AVG.262
Some of what Gomes did this season looks like a fluke, but he has always been a great fastball hitter, a dead-pull guy who's vulnerable to soft away or just generally to changing speeds. He does see a lot of pitches in an effort to get himself to a fastball, although I am skeptical that at 32 he finally figured out how to hit the slider.
He's an indifferent fielder who's probably best suited to DH duty. In a good ballpark for right-handed pull hitters, like Houston, he'd be a great one-year candidate for the DH spot with occasional duties in left.
Rank Player
45 Delmon Young
Age: 27 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: OF
'12 team: Detroit Tigers Status:
Terms:
Delmon Young
Delmon Young
#21 DH
Detroit Tigers
2012 STATS
GM151
HR18
RBI74
R54
OBP.296
AVG.267
Young's postseason heroics shouldn't mask his severe limitations as a player: He's a liability any time you hand him a glove and his OBP over the past two seasons is below .300.
His terrible walk rates are no accident; he swings far too often at pitches outside the zone, about 50 percent more often than an average hitter does, and breaking stuff gives him fits. He does have a history of hitting left-handed pitching fairly well and he has the power to murder a fastball that catches too much of the zone, but even at age 27 he's likely too far gone as a hitter to ever improve his hacking ways.
Rank Player
46 Francisco Rodriguez
Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Milwaukee Brewers Status:
Terms:
Francisco Rodriguez
Francisco Rodriguez
#57 RP
Milwaukee Brewers
2012 STATS
GM78
W2
L7
BB31
K72
ERA4.38
Before a late-July meltdown that saw him allow 10 runs across four straight appearances, K-Rod had faced 160 batters, fanned 40, walked 18, allowed five homers and posted a 3.59 ERA. After that four-game stretch, K-Rod faced 95 more batters, struck out 28, walked five, gave up two homers and had a 2.70 ERA. That's a pretty good season outside of a week where he was the worst pitcher on the planet.
The main problem for K-Rod in 2012 was that he wasn't getting down in the zone as well as he used to, showing better velocity on the two-seamer but less life. He'll need to get the sink he showed in 2011 back, or work more heavily with his off-speed stuff, which would mean throwing the changeup (still an above-average pitch) in the zone more often. There's enough raw material to see him becoming a solid eighth-inning guy for someone, but the old K-Rod isn't walking through that bullpen door tonight.
Rank Player
47 Daisuke Matsuzaka
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Boston Red Sox Status:
Terms:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Daisuke Matsuzaka
#18 SP
Boston Red Sox
2012 STATS
GM48
W1
L7
BB20
K41
ERA8.28
One of my least favorite pitchers ever to watch live, since he takes forever to deliver a pitch and refuses to come inside to hitters, Daisuke is still worth a gamble for a GM with a need for starting pitching and a prescription for omeprazole.
I'd simplify his repertoire to fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup -- he's always had a good change, but never used it enough -- and have him use the curve and fastball less and the change and cutter more. Lefties teed off on him in 2012, but did nearly all their damage against him on fastballs; he threw 33 changeups to lefties last year, and gave up only one hit, a single.
That idea is not a panacea, especially since he'll have to throw more strikes with all of his pitches, but it's enough of a plan for a team to give Daisuke a one-year deal with incentives and try to at least rehabilitate him into a back-end starter.
Rank Player
48 Joel Peralta
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
Joel Peralta
Joel Peralta
#62 RP
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM76
W2
L6
BB17
K84
ERA3.63
You would think Peralta's success with a splitter as his out pitch would encourage more teams to experiment with that offering, especially with guys of this profile -- sub-6-foot right-handers who get on top of the ball at release but lack movement on their fastballs.
His splitter has hard, late bottom, even running a little to his glove side, and it makes his fastball more effective because hitters don't know if the pitch will appear to rise or if the bottom will fall out of it. He's actually more effective against left-handed batters, but his curveball helps him get right-handed hitters out. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher and would be a poor fit in a small park, but otherwise is a solid option in middle relief.
Rank Player
49 Placido Polanco
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 3B
'12 team: Philadelphia Phillies Status:
Terms:
Placido Polanco
Placido Polanco
#27 3B
Philadelphia Phillies
2012 STATS
GM90
HR2
RBI19
R28
OBP.302
AVG.257
When the Phillies gave Polanco three years after the 2010 season, the main problem with the deal was its length, taking Polanco through his age-36 season, and sure enough his body started to give out as the deal went on, leaving the Phillies with an average of 114 games of Polanco per year.
Fortunately for Philly, he played superb defense at third, better than I expected given his questionable lateral mobility, and he could still provide value as a part-time third/second baseman and occasional pinch hitter against lefties. Let's just keep it to one year this time, shall we?
Rank Player
50 Koji Uehara
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Koji Uehara
Koji Uehara
#19 RP
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM37
W0
L0
BB3
K43
ERA1.75
Uehara has 80 control on the 20-80 scouting scale, with just three walks in 36 innings last year and just 27 unintentional walks in 211 innings since he came to the U.S. His fastball is fringy, mostly in the upper 80s with an occasional 91, but it plays up because he throws it about as often as he throws an above-average splitter that he can locate right at the bottom edge of the strike zone.
He's a severe fly-ball pitcher who's been homer-prone on and off throughout his career and I'd feel better signing him if my team played in a neutral park or a pitcher-friendly one. He kills right-handed batters and is more than good enough against lefties to be a seventh- or eighth-inning guy, as long as you can live with the long balls.
This year's free-agent crop is very thin at the highest tier -- after the top player, everyone has a significant question mark in the short term as well as questions over the long term -- but there's great depth further down the list, especially in relief pitchers, quality platoon or bench players, and even some back-end starters. There's a lot of money floating around in baseball right now, but throwing it at the best the free-agent market has to offer might be the worst strategy in a market where players in the top 10 are riskier than normal.
Note: Ages are as of Opening Day 2013.
Law's complete top 50: 1-10 Insider | 11-30 Insider | 31-50 Insider
Rank Player
31 Joakim Soria
Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Kansas City Royals Status:
Terms:
Joakim Soria
Joakim Soria
#48 RP
Kansas City Royals
2011 STATS
GM60
W5
L5
BB17
K60
ERA4.03
The Royals declined their 2013 option on Soria, ending what has to be a disappointing chapter for their fans -- the team never tried him in the rotation (even though he has the stuff for it), and never flipped him for prospects when he was healthy and a closer was nothing more than a luxury for the team.
Even when closing, Soria pitched a lot like a starter, establishing his fastball early and mixing in various other pitches -- in 2011, he showed four off-speed pitches -- but still getting most of his swings and misses on the four-seamer and the cutter. That deception would have played well in the rotation, but after two elbow ligament replacement surgeries, Soria is probably destined to finish his career in the bullpen, and is a good candidate for a two-year deal with incentives for staying healthy.
Rank Player
32 Marco Scutaro
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 2B
'12 team: San Francisco Giants Status:
Terms:
Marco Scutaro
Marco Scutaro
#19 2B
San Francisco Giants
2012 STATS
GM156
HR7
RBI74
R87
OBP.348
AVG.306
Scutaro hasn't posted a full-season OPS of .800 anywhere in his career, so I think we can assume that his .362/.385/.473 (BA/OBP/SLG) run in 61 games for San Francisco isn't a sudden leap forward in ability at age 36.
He's a capable second baseman, sure-handed but lacking the range he had when he was still with the Jays, and while he's not a high-walk guy he does have strong plate discipline, rarely expanding the zone and making a lot of contact within it. He could be an average second baseman for another year or two, although his age would make me wary of any deal of more than one season.
Rank Player
33 Carlos Villanueva
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Toronto Blue Jays Status:
Terms:
Carlos Villanueva
Carlos Villanueva
#33 RP
Toronto Blue Jays
2012 STATS
GM38
W7
L7
BB46
K122
ERA4.16
Villanueva is a rare bird, a true swingman who's good enough to start on a part-time basis but probably wouldn't make most teams' full-time rotations.
When he starts, he doesn't lose much velocity -- his fastball is fringy in either role -- but his slider isn't as sharp and his changeup doesn't have the same fade, with both pitches finishing up in the zone too often. That said, there's substantial value in a multi-inning reliever with good control who can take a few turns as a starter and who misses enough bats to help in either role, enough value that he's worth giving two years.
Rank Player
34 Jose Valverde
Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Detroit Tigers Status:
Terms:
Jose Valverde
Jose Valverde
#46 RP
Detroit Tigers
2012 STATS
GM71
W3
L4
BB27
K48
ERA3.78
Valverde's self-immolation in October was just an extreme end to a season that saw his command slipping and his splitter less effective, reducing him to ordinary reliever status despite the high save totals and so-called "perfect" season in 2012.
He's a reclamation project for a team willing to see if he can relocate the strike zone without throwing fastballs up and over the plate, and there's a real risk with a reliever who has lost it like this that the underlying reason is physical, not mental or mechanical.
Rank Player
35 Francisco Liriano
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: LHP
'12 team: Chicago White Sox Status:
Terms:
Francisco Liriano
Francisco Liriano
#58 SP
Chicago White Sox
2012 STATS
GM34
W6
L12
BB87
K167
ERA5.34
Liriano's results never seem to line up with his peripherals or his raw stuff, largely because he's not the same guy when working from the stretch, with consistently worse numbers when he has men on base.
He has an above-average fastball and a slider that flashes plus, missing left-handers' bats, but it's hard to project him to a 'pen role because of the trouble he has with runners on. There's a lot of temptation for teams in a 29-year-old lefty who throws hard and has a strong breaking ball, but there's a large obstacle preventing him from being a league-average starter or shutdown reliever.
Rank Player
36 Russell Martin
Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: C
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Russell Martin
Russell Martin
#55 C
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM133
HR21
RBI53
R50
OBP.311
AVG.211
The catching market is atrocious -- I may have mentioned that elsewhere -- leaving Martin one of the few options for a team looking for a full-time solution at the spot.
He's a solid defender, an average thrower who receives well, especially in framing pitches. He still works the count and will take a walk, but his bat speed has been down for several years now and he'll be lucky to slug .400 outside of Yankee Stadium. He's an emergency starter, good for a team that lacks an internal candidate, but a backup on a better-quality roster. Fun with arbitrary end points: If you throw out Martin's huge first month with the Yankees, he hit .217/.312/.387 in 876 plate appearances with New York.
Rank Player
37 Ryu Hyun-Jin
Age: 26 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: LHP
'12 team: Hanwha Eagles Status:
Terms:
Fujikawa
Ryu Hyun-Jin
#99 LHP
Hanwha Eagles
2012 STATS
GM48
W6
L6
BB46
K210
ERA2.66
Ryu will be posted by his KBO team, the Hanwha Eagles, and should attract interest from just about every club because of his potential as a reliever who can get hitters on both sides of the plate out.
He is a thick-bodied lefty who has been a starter in Korea, working with a drop-and-drive delivery but with very late elbow pronation, and in the rotation his fastball is just average at 88-91. He does have a plus changeup with good arm speed and a fringy curveball in the upper 70s, which is a better left-on-left option right now than his slider. I don't love the arm action and he had Tommy John surgery when he was in high school, but if he moves to the bullpen he could work in the low 90s with an out pitch in the change, a better option than being a back-end starter with some question about durability.
Rank Player
38 Kyle Farnsworth
Age: 36 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
Kyle Farnsworth
Kyle Farnsworth
#43 RP
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM34
W1
L6
BB14
K25
ERA4.00
He still throws hard, and after missing half the year with an elbow strain, he was pretty close to what he'd been for Tampa Bay the year before. He had a brutal four-walk outing a few days after his late-June return, and then walked just seven men unintentionally the rest of the season, punching out 22 and allowing just one homer in 25 innings.
Farnsworth has a pretty simple plan -- hope to get ahead with the fastball, then finish guys off with sliders, using the cutter to get around the fact that you could paint highway stripes with that straight four-seamer. For one year, assuming he passes a physical, he's a good reclamation project for some team because the Rays already did part of the work.
Rank Player
39 Mike Adams
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Mike Adams
Mike Adams
#37 RP
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM61
W5
L3
BB17
K45
ERA3.27
Adams is a cutter machine who was dominant in the National League with the Padres but has been merely good since coming over to the AL and pitching in a less friendly home park.
He does use his curveball more often now, running it up to 80 with a hard downward break, giving him another weapon to keep him from overusing his four-seamer, which has average velocity and below-average life.
Adams had surgery to remove a rib in October, addressing thoracic outlet syndrome that was causing numbness in his pitching hand, and could miss a little bit of 2013 depending on how his recovery goes. He's a solid option for the seventh or eighth inning.
Rank Player
40 Jeff Keppinger
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: IF
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
Jeff Keppinger
Jeff Keppinger
#7 3B
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM115
HR9
RBI40
R46
OBP.367
AVG.325
Keppinger has one major baseball skill -- he can make contact, and does so pretty well with all pitch types. He doesn't walk and has minimal power, but he's never struck out in 10 percent of his plate appearances at any level of pro ball.
His main weakness is fastballs on the inner half, since he doesn't have the strength to pull them or the hand speed to stay inside the ball, but pitchers who can't locate there risk getting too much plate and giving up a line drive. He can fake second and third base and can handle either outfield corner, giving him value as a super-sub who gets 400-500 PAs but isn't a strict regular anywhere.
He'll play at 33 next year so a two-year deal would be the maximum I'd offer.
Rank Player
41 Jonathan Broxton
Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Cincinnati Reds Status:
Terms:
Jonathan Broxton
Jonathan Broxton
#50 RP
Cincinnati Reds
2012 STATS
GM60
W4
L5
BB17
K45
ERA2.48
After Broxton returned in the NL in July, his ground-ball rate dropped closer to his career norm while his strikeout rate jumped and he stopped walking guys.
The sample with Cincinnati was smaller, but he was much more aggressive when behind in the count after the move from Kansas City, especially when he was in a three-ball count. (Interesting if possibly meaningless factoid: Broxton walked just one batter in his last 18 appearances of the year.)
His slider still isn't back to where it was before his injury, but he has shown he can pitch more effectively with his fastball than he has in years, and if the slider should return he could be worth up to two wins above replacement.
Rank Player
42 Stephen Drew
Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: SS
'12 team: Oakland Athletics Status:
Terms:
Stephen Drew
Stephen Drew
#5 SS
Oakland Athletics
2012 STATS
GM79
HR7
RBI28
R38
OBP.309
AVG.223
Drew needed to get out of Arizona one way or another after club officials questioned his toughness and work ethic when he took longer than expected to return from a catastrophic leg injury, the type of makeup concerns that also dogged his brother for most of his career.
More relevant here is the probability that Drew will never be an above-average defender at short again given the injury, and the question of whether his bat would play every day at second. He's still a good fastball hitter who has a little pop, probably 15-20 homers in a neutral park (that is, not Oakland), and who can draw a few walks because he rarely expands the zone.
At short, that's a potential above-average regular. I think at second base he's at least an everyday player once he learns the position, but until we know for sure that he can handle the position it's hard to see a team guaranteeing him multiple years.
Rank Player
43 Joe Blanton
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Los Angeles Dodgers Status:
Terms:
Joe Blanton
Joe Blanton
#56 SP
Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 STATS
GM31
W10
L13
BB34
K166
ERA4.71
Blanton's fringy fastball was becoming more hittable over time, so he has slightly reinvented himself as a primarily cutter/curveball starter who pounds the zone with a five-pitch repertoire and hopes that the many home runs he gives up are largely solo shots.
An elbow injury in 2011 that didn't require surgery is the only blemish on his record of durability, but innings are valuable only if they don't involve giving up lots of runs, and Blanton's stuff makes him fairly homer-prone across the board.
Perhaps the reinvention continues and he ditches the four-seamer -- his most taterrific pitch -- entirely, but as currently constituted, he's a fifth starter.
Rank Player
44 Jonny Gomes
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: DH
'12 team: Oakland Athletics Status:
Terms:
Jonny Gomes
Jonny Gomes
#31 DH
Oakland Athletics
2012 STATS
GM99
HR18
RBI47
R46
OBP.377
AVG.262
Some of what Gomes did this season looks like a fluke, but he has always been a great fastball hitter, a dead-pull guy who's vulnerable to soft away or just generally to changing speeds. He does see a lot of pitches in an effort to get himself to a fastball, although I am skeptical that at 32 he finally figured out how to hit the slider.
He's an indifferent fielder who's probably best suited to DH duty. In a good ballpark for right-handed pull hitters, like Houston, he'd be a great one-year candidate for the DH spot with occasional duties in left.
Rank Player
45 Delmon Young
Age: 27 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: OF
'12 team: Detroit Tigers Status:
Terms:
Delmon Young
Delmon Young
#21 DH
Detroit Tigers
2012 STATS
GM151
HR18
RBI74
R54
OBP.296
AVG.267
Young's postseason heroics shouldn't mask his severe limitations as a player: He's a liability any time you hand him a glove and his OBP over the past two seasons is below .300.
His terrible walk rates are no accident; he swings far too often at pitches outside the zone, about 50 percent more often than an average hitter does, and breaking stuff gives him fits. He does have a history of hitting left-handed pitching fairly well and he has the power to murder a fastball that catches too much of the zone, but even at age 27 he's likely too far gone as a hitter to ever improve his hacking ways.
Rank Player
46 Francisco Rodriguez
Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Milwaukee Brewers Status:
Terms:
Francisco Rodriguez
Francisco Rodriguez
#57 RP
Milwaukee Brewers
2012 STATS
GM78
W2
L7
BB31
K72
ERA4.38
Before a late-July meltdown that saw him allow 10 runs across four straight appearances, K-Rod had faced 160 batters, fanned 40, walked 18, allowed five homers and posted a 3.59 ERA. After that four-game stretch, K-Rod faced 95 more batters, struck out 28, walked five, gave up two homers and had a 2.70 ERA. That's a pretty good season outside of a week where he was the worst pitcher on the planet.
The main problem for K-Rod in 2012 was that he wasn't getting down in the zone as well as he used to, showing better velocity on the two-seamer but less life. He'll need to get the sink he showed in 2011 back, or work more heavily with his off-speed stuff, which would mean throwing the changeup (still an above-average pitch) in the zone more often. There's enough raw material to see him becoming a solid eighth-inning guy for someone, but the old K-Rod isn't walking through that bullpen door tonight.
Rank Player
47 Daisuke Matsuzaka
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Boston Red Sox Status:
Terms:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Daisuke Matsuzaka
#18 SP
Boston Red Sox
2012 STATS
GM48
W1
L7
BB20
K41
ERA8.28
One of my least favorite pitchers ever to watch live, since he takes forever to deliver a pitch and refuses to come inside to hitters, Daisuke is still worth a gamble for a GM with a need for starting pitching and a prescription for omeprazole.
I'd simplify his repertoire to fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup -- he's always had a good change, but never used it enough -- and have him use the curve and fastball less and the change and cutter more. Lefties teed off on him in 2012, but did nearly all their damage against him on fastballs; he threw 33 changeups to lefties last year, and gave up only one hit, a single.
That idea is not a panacea, especially since he'll have to throw more strikes with all of his pitches, but it's enough of a plan for a team to give Daisuke a one-year deal with incentives and try to at least rehabilitate him into a back-end starter.
Rank Player
48 Joel Peralta
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
Joel Peralta
Joel Peralta
#62 RP
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM76
W2
L6
BB17
K84
ERA3.63
You would think Peralta's success with a splitter as his out pitch would encourage more teams to experiment with that offering, especially with guys of this profile -- sub-6-foot right-handers who get on top of the ball at release but lack movement on their fastballs.
His splitter has hard, late bottom, even running a little to his glove side, and it makes his fastball more effective because hitters don't know if the pitch will appear to rise or if the bottom will fall out of it. He's actually more effective against left-handed batters, but his curveball helps him get right-handed hitters out. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher and would be a poor fit in a small park, but otherwise is a solid option in middle relief.
Rank Player
49 Placido Polanco
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 3B
'12 team: Philadelphia Phillies Status:
Terms:
Placido Polanco
Placido Polanco
#27 3B
Philadelphia Phillies
2012 STATS
GM90
HR2
RBI19
R28
OBP.302
AVG.257
When the Phillies gave Polanco three years after the 2010 season, the main problem with the deal was its length, taking Polanco through his age-36 season, and sure enough his body started to give out as the deal went on, leaving the Phillies with an average of 114 games of Polanco per year.
Fortunately for Philly, he played superb defense at third, better than I expected given his questionable lateral mobility, and he could still provide value as a part-time third/second baseman and occasional pinch hitter against lefties. Let's just keep it to one year this time, shall we?
Rank Player
50 Koji Uehara
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Koji Uehara
Koji Uehara
#19 RP
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM37
W0
L0
BB3
K43
ERA1.75
Uehara has 80 control on the 20-80 scouting scale, with just three walks in 36 innings last year and just 27 unintentional walks in 211 innings since he came to the U.S. His fastball is fringy, mostly in the upper 80s with an occasional 91, but it plays up because he throws it about as often as he throws an above-average splitter that he can locate right at the bottom edge of the strike zone.
He's a severe fly-ball pitcher who's been homer-prone on and off throughout his career and I'd feel better signing him if my team played in a neutral park or a pitcher-friendly one. He kills right-handed batters and is more than good enough against lefties to be a seventh- or eighth-inning guy, as long as you can live with the long balls.
Law's complete top 50: 1-10 Insider | 11-30 Insider | 31-50 Insider
Rank Player
11 Ryan Dempster
Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Ryan Dempster
Ryan Dempster
#46 SP
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM28
W12
L8
BB52
K153
ERA3.38
As lucky as Dempster was with the Cubs in the first two-thirds of the 2012 season, he was as just as unlucky with Texas after the midseason trade. His batting average on balls in play was unsustainably low with Chicago and his strand rate unsustainably high, with both figures moving too far in the other direction after the trade.
His stuff was unchanged -- he still has two above-average off-speed pitches in a mid-80s slider that he throws for strikes (and throws quite often) and a low-80s splitter that functions like a hard changeup with some late tumble to keep hitters from elevating it. He does need to keep his fastball out of the middle of the plate, at least if he stays in the American League or goes to another hitter-friendly park, but he's a solid mid-rotation option for someone on a two- or even three-year deal.
Rank Player
12 Mariano Rivera
Age: 43 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
#42 RP
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM9
W1
L1
BB2
K8
ERA2.16
If Rivera does pitch in 2013, as expected, it's going to be for the Yankees, who would welcome him back with open arms. So, he's not quite as "free" as the other free agents on this list.
He missed most of the 2012 season after injuring his knee while shagging fly balls during batting practice, but that time off could even help him regain a little lost arm strength, although the reasonable forecast for him remains the same: 65 or so innings, very few walks, lots of ground balls and broken bats, and one cutter after another.
Just stay away from the outfield this year, Mo.
Rank Player
13 Mike Napoli
Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: C/1B/DH
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Mike Napoli
Mike Napoli
#25 C
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM108
HR24
RBI56
R53
OBP.343
AVG.227
Napoli's huge 2011 season looks like a pretty strong outlier at this point. He might be the biggest fool's-good candidate in the top 20 this year due to that one great year, his age and the likely decline in his durability over the course of whatever deal he signs.
This is a classic "old player's skills" player, patient with power, striking out a lot and contributing little on defense. As long as he can catch part-time, he's an everyday player who has a chance to be above average, but his defense has always been shaky and he probably couldn't catch full-time even if a team wanted him to.
He does get on base even when he's not hitting for average, and his power isn't just dead-pull, so there are reasons to think he won't head off the cliff as a hitter in his early 30s. But if he's mostly a first baseman or DH, that bat's a lot less valuable.
Rank Player
14 Rafael Soriano
Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Rafael Soriano
Rafael Soriano
#29 RP
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM69
W2
L1
BB24
K69
ERA2.26
Soriano bounced back from an injury-shortened 2011 season to more or less return to his 2010 form, when he spent one year with Tampa Bay before landing a wildly player-friendly deal with the Yankees.
Throwing more sliders than ever before, Soriano still kept his walk rate down and kept the ball in the park enough to be an eighth- or ninth-inning option for most teams going forward. He's sitting mostly 90-94 mph now, and the increased use of the slider has actually made the fastball more effective.
I don't know how many more years of effectiveness remain in this arm and I believe he's only good for 60 to 70 innings at the extreme, but the market is almost certain to overvalue him with multiple years because of his capital-C Closer experience.
Rank Player
15 A.J. Pierzynski
Age: 36 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: C
'12 team: Chicago White Sox Status:
Terms:
A.J. Pierzynski
A.J. Pierzynski
#12 C
Chicago White Sox
2012 STATS
GM135
HR27
RBI77
R68
OBP.326
AVG.278
Pierzynski's power spike at age 35 will not recur, but this winter's market for catchers is abysmal and he does have a track record of hitting for average and some doubles power, making a lot of contact and never walking. If that doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement, you're right, and the potential for Pierzynski -- an average defender behind the plate -- to fall off a cliff on offense or defense is quite high given his age and career total of more than 13,000 major league innings at catcher.
He should be good for .280/.310/.420 for another year or two before that happens.
Rank Player
16 Adam LaRoche
Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: 1B
'12 team: Washington Nationals Status:
Terms:
Adam LaRoche
Adam LaRoche
#25 1B
Washington Nationals
2012 STATS
GM154
HR33
RBI100
R76
OBP.343
AVG.271
LaRoche was healthy in 2012 and showed off his raw power along with his elite defense at first base, which earned him (he said, half-mockingly) his first Gold Glove.
He's also 33 and an old-man's skills hitter, with patience and power but lots of strikeouts and just one season in his career when he topped a .280 average. He's a well below-average runner and a dead fastball hitter, so any loss of bat speed could be catastrophic. For now, he's a solid player good for three wins above replacement, but long-term projections are going to slope down fairly steeply.
I'd love to have him for one year, would be content with two years and would jump into the Potomac River before giving him four.
Rank Player
17 Melky Cabrera
Age: 28 Bats: B Throws: L
Position: LF
'12 team: San Francisco Giants Status:
Terms:
Melky Cabrera
Melky Cabrera
#53 LF
San Francisco Giants
2012 STATS
GM113
HR11
RBI60
R84
OBP.390
AVG.346
Cabrera's 2012 season looked like a severe statistical fluke; he was thriving almost entirely on a spike in his batting average on balls in play, with his lack of patience and power exactly where they were prior to his trade to San Francisco.
He isn't a selective hitter but has good plate coverage. His ability to convert more of that contact into hits is what changed, or seemed to change, this season. However, his suspension for testosterone use throws his entire performance into doubt. Some teams will assume his performance boost was due to testosterone and others will look at the BABIP jump and figure he would have eventually come back to earth.
He's a poor center fielder who's just average in left or right. But despite the PED and makeup questions, every team should be willing to give him a one-year deal, as even a return to his 2011 performance level would allow him to play every day for some clubs.
Rank Player
18 Torii Hunter
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: OF
'12 team: Los Angeles Angels Status:
Terms:
Torii Hunter
Torii Hunter
#48 RF
Los Angeles Angels
2012 STATS
GM140
HR16
RBI92
R81
OBP.365
AVG.313
Hunter is one of the most respected players in the game by both fellow players and members of the media, so it pains me to rain on his free-agent parade. But what you saw from Hunter in 2012 isn't at all indicative of what he's going to provide on his next deal.
He's been losing bat speed for the past few years and compensated this season by being much more aggressive earlier in the count, even if the pitch in question wasn't one worth swinging at. His power is diminished, and he's not going to hit .390 on balls in play again, so what you're likely buying is a .330 OBP guy who plays a very good right field and has great makeup. That's a solid player -- an everyday guy -- but nothing more, with the downside risk of any position player in his late 30s. (Torii Hunter is in his late 30s. That sounds very, very wrong to me.)
I'd take him for a year without hesitation, but if the .313 average makes someone go three years or more, they are asking for trouble.
Rank Player
19 Hisashi Iwakuma
Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Seattle Mariners Status:
Terms:
Hisashi Iwakuma
Hisashi Iwakuma
#18 SP
Seattle Mariners
2012 STATS
GM30
W9
L5
BB43
K101
ERA3.16
Iwakuma languished in Seattle's bullpen in the first half of 2012 but was much more effective when he entered their rotation, posting a 2.65 ERA while cutting his walk and home run rates compared to what they were when he was working in relief.
While his velocity is just average, Iwakuma can sink the fastball and throws a hard splitter that's not far below the speed of his fastball, adding to the deception from the pitch's tumble. His slider is short but comes in around 80-82 mph with some late dive, while he could probably lose the low-70s curveball that doesn't miss bats but presents the potential for damage if he hangs it.
I worry about the potential for home runs from the average fastball and fringy curve, but the combination of above-average control and high ground ball rates make him very appealing as a potential No. 3 or good No. 4 starter.
Rank Player
20 Angel Pagan
Age: 31 Bats: B Throws: R
Position: CF
'12 team: San Francisco Giants Status:
Terms:
Angel Pagan
Angel Pagan
#16 CF
San Francisco Giants
2012 STATS
GM154
HR8
RBI56
R95
OBP.338
AVG.288
Pagan might have raised his free-agent stock this October -- not so much with his performance, but simply by getting exposure, showing that while he lacks a plus tool beyond running speed, he has a number of ways to contribute to a club even in an outfield corner.
A switch-hitter, Pagan has more power and a better eye from the left side, opening his hips early when hitting right-handed, although he's comfortable going the other way rather than trying to pull pitches he can't get to. He's an above-average defender in an outfield corner but would come in average or below if asked to play center regularly. That plus running speed has helped Pagan add value through basestealing and baserunning over the past few years, although that's the kind of tool that can fade quickly as a player gets into his mid-30s. I'd love to get Pagan on a two- to three-year deal to play left and to slide over to center as a backup when needed, hitting him eighth or ninth since he doesn't get on base enough to be an ideal leadoff guy.
I don't foresee more 5-WAR seasons in Pagan's future, between his age, his reliance on his legs and the potential for a widening platoon split that eventually leaves him as a part-time player.
Rank Player
21 Ryan Madson
Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Cincinnati Reds Status:
Terms:
Ryan Madson
Ryan Madson
#46 RP
Cincinnati Reds
2011 STATS
GM62
W4
L2
BB16
K62
ERA2.37
Madson seemed like a better bet than most relievers to stay healthy when he signed a once-year deal with Cincy last winter, but he blew out his elbow before ever throwing a pitch for the Reds and now reenters the market off a lost season.
Before his injury, Madson had evolved into a mostly two-pitch reliever, with an above-average fastball at 92-95 mph and a plus-plus changeup with great deception and late downward action. He'll mix in the occasional cutter to keep hitters off his four-seamer, but it's nothing more than a show-me pitch to mess with hitters' minds.
He'll probably need lighter handling in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and his control might take some time to fully return, but by the second year he should be back to his pre-injury form and workload.
Rank Player
22 Brandon McCarthy
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Oakland Athletics Status:
Terms:
Brandon McCarthy
Brandon McCarthy
#32 SP
Oakland Athletics
2012 STATS
GM18
W8
L6
BB24
K73
ERA3.24
McCarthy was among the biggest and best surprises in the American League in 2011, but a shoulder injury and a concussion suffered when he was hit in the head with a line drive limited him to 111 innings in 2012.
Aside from health, the main difference between his two seasons was in his ability to keep his two main pitches, a cutter and a sinker, down in the zone; he left more of both pitches up, especially in the first half, and too many of them turned into line drives. His velocity was fine, with both pitches in the 89-92 range, and he can change eye levels with an upper-70s curveball. He's not going to miss a ton of bats, but he will avoid walks and, if healthy, should be able to generate groundballs as he did the prior season.
Assuming he's healthy enough for a regular workload of 160 to 170 innings this year, he should be worth 2-3 wins above replacement.
Rank Player
23 Shaun Marcum
Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Milwaukee Brewers Status:
Terms:
Shaun Marcum
Shaun Marcum
#18 SP
Milwaukee Brewers
2012 STATS
GM21
W7
L4
BB41
K109
ERA3.70
Marcum has succeeded for years despite a fastball in the upper 80s because of a plus changeup, a short slider he can locate and a very aggressive, almost combative pitching plan.
A heavy workload in his first year back from elbow surgery in 2010 seems to have taken its toll, however, and he now seems to be relegated to pitching with a below-average fastball without the precise command he'll need to be more than a fourth or fifth starter. He started to compensate for the lost velocity by throwing the fastball less in 2012 than he ever had in any previous season, throwing more sliders and cutters -- almost like a right-handed Doug Davis, but without Davis' fear of contact.
I love that Marcum goes after hitters like they kicked his dog, but a fastball at 85-88 mph is too hittable for the heart of the plate, and he'll need to continue to adjust his approach to pitch in the middle of anyone's rotation.
Rank Player
24 Kevin Youkilis
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 3B
'12 team: Chicago White Sox Status:
Terms:
Kevin Youkilis
Kevin Youkilis
#20 3B
Chicago White Sox
2012 STATS
GM122
HR19
RBI60
R72
OBP.336
AVG.235
If Youkilis' knee is healthy for most of 2013 -- which is a significant assumption -- he should be a 2.5-3 WAR player, even with his defense at third declining. He's still incredibly disciplined at the plate, rarely swinging and missing at pitches out of the zone, seeing more than four pitches per plate appearance and drawing walks.
The knee injury that cost him some time in 2012 sapped a lot of his power -- even doubles power -- because of how much he used his lower half to drive the ball, and of course limited his ability to take the field and to handle third base.
He'll probably be paid like a full-time player, but the repeated trouble with his knee, even after the trade to Chicago, would make me wary of guaranteeing him more than part-timer money going forward.
Rank Player
25 Ichiro Suzuki
Age: 39 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Ichiro Suzuki
Ichiro Suzuki
#31 LF
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM162
HR9
RBI55
R77
OBP.307
AVG.283
Ichiro looked rejuvenated after a midseason trade from Seattle to New York, a process helped by a ballpark that's quite friendly to left-handed hitters, with Yankee Stadium accounting for five of his nine home runs in just 21 percent of his season's plate appearances.
He remains an above-average runner who plays plus defense in right field -- even with an outlier figure in 2011, from 2009 to 2012 he averaged 7.5 runs saved on defense relative to an average right-fielder, according to UZR. And he can handle center on an emergency basis.
I like him a lot more if he's used part-time, platooned against lefties and used as a defensive replacement, but he'll probably get offers for full-time work based on his name value and strong finish with the Yankees.
Rank Player
26 Jeremy Guthrie
Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Kansas City Royals Status:
Terms:
Jeremy Guthrie
Jeremy Guthrie
#33 SP
Kansas City Royals
2012 STATS
GM33
W8
L12
BB50
K101
ERA4.76
Guthrie remade himself after a midseason "your problem for my problem" trade that sent him from Colorado to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez. The move gave him back his confidence in his fastball and allowed him to return to his old pitching style, getting ahead with the fastball or curveball and finishing guys off with the slider.
That slider is the key for him going forward -- when he gets it down at 83-84 mph, it's an above-average pitch, but when he leaves it up in the 79-82 range, it's far too hittable. Aside from a fluky injury in April 2012, Guthrie's been very durable, averaging 202 innings a year from 2008 to 2011, and I think he can come close to league-average territory again now that he's out of Denver.
Rank Player
27 Ryan Ludwick
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: Cincinnati Reds Status:
Terms:
Ryan Ludwick
Ryan Ludwick
#48 LF
Cincinnati Reds
2012 STATS
GM125
HR26
RBI80
R53
OBP.346
AVG.275
Ludwick's performance in 2012 produced the second-best WAR of his career (per FanGraphs), after his extreme outlier season in 2008, but this time around it looks just as unsustainable. He fattened up on a lot of weak pitching in 2012, especially within the NL Central, and is very vulnerable to off-speed stuff, especially changeups.
He's a below-average defender in left, good enough to fill the position but a net negative once he's there. If he's challenged by better competition and has a little less randomness go his way, he'll be back to extra-outfielder status this year.
Rank Player
28 Lance Berkman
Age: 37 Bats: B Throws: L
Position: 1B
'12 team: St. Louis Cardinals Status:
Terms:
Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman
#12 1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2012 STATS
GM32
HR2
RBI7
R12
OBP.381
AVG.259
Berkman's season was lost to two knee surgeries, making his superb 2011 performance a distant memory because of uncertainty over how much he'll be able to take the field.
He does still dominate right-handed pitching, both in power and in getting on base, and could use the rest afforded to him if he's used in a strict left/right platoon. He'll play at age 37 this year and almost certainly has to be handled carefully, probably as a DH and bat off the bench with minimal time in the field.
He's a potential asset to an AL team with a flexible manager who grasps platoon mechanics, such as Joe Maddon or Buck Showalter, but is probably best suited for an incentive-laden deal with a low base because of his health.
Rank Player
29 Shane Victorino
Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: R
Position: LF
'12 team: Los Angeles Dodgers Status:
Terms:
Shane Victorino
Shane Victorino
#8 LF
Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 STATS
GM154
HR11
RBI55
R72
OBP.321
AVG.255
Victorino's bat speed has slowed to the point where he's best utilized as a fourth outfielder who can fill any of the three outfield spots and come off the bench as a right-handed hitter, since even in his prime he was never very good hitting from the left side.
He has an above-average arm and is still an asset on the bases despite the occasional boneheaded play -- it's almost surprising how good he is at reading pitchers' moves when you consider how poor his instincts look at times. He's a one-year-deal player at this point, but the lack of center-field options might encourage some team to give him two or three years to be a starter.
Rank Player
30 Kyuji Fujikawa
Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Hanshin Tigers Status:
Terms:
Fujikawa
Kyuji Fujikawa
#22 RP
Hanshin Tigers
2012 STATS
GM48
W2
L2
BB15
K58
ERA1.32
The closer for the Hanshin Tigers is a true free agent now at age 32 after a successful 12-year NPB career that saw him strike out one out of every three batters he faced.
He's not as dominant as he used to be and pitches with a solid-average fastball and a good splitter that is occasionally plus, showing more of a steady drop than the abrupt tumble of a really good splitter. He also missed some time in 2012 with an adductor strain, and hasn't thrown 70 innings in a season since 2007.
He has potential as a setup man but I don't think he's an elite reliever unless that splitter gets sharper or more consistent.
Rank Player
11 Ryan Dempster
Age: 35 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Ryan Dempster
Ryan Dempster
#46 SP
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM28
W12
L8
BB52
K153
ERA3.38
As lucky as Dempster was with the Cubs in the first two-thirds of the 2012 season, he was as just as unlucky with Texas after the midseason trade. His batting average on balls in play was unsustainably low with Chicago and his strand rate unsustainably high, with both figures moving too far in the other direction after the trade.
His stuff was unchanged -- he still has two above-average off-speed pitches in a mid-80s slider that he throws for strikes (and throws quite often) and a low-80s splitter that functions like a hard changeup with some late tumble to keep hitters from elevating it. He does need to keep his fastball out of the middle of the plate, at least if he stays in the American League or goes to another hitter-friendly park, but he's a solid mid-rotation option for someone on a two- or even three-year deal.
Rank Player
12 Mariano Rivera
Age: 43 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
#42 RP
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM9
W1
L1
BB2
K8
ERA2.16
If Rivera does pitch in 2013, as expected, it's going to be for the Yankees, who would welcome him back with open arms. So, he's not quite as "free" as the other free agents on this list.
He missed most of the 2012 season after injuring his knee while shagging fly balls during batting practice, but that time off could even help him regain a little lost arm strength, although the reasonable forecast for him remains the same: 65 or so innings, very few walks, lots of ground balls and broken bats, and one cutter after another.
Just stay away from the outfield this year, Mo.
Rank Player
13 Mike Napoli
Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: C/1B/DH
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Mike Napoli
Mike Napoli
#25 C
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM108
HR24
RBI56
R53
OBP.343
AVG.227
Napoli's huge 2011 season looks like a pretty strong outlier at this point. He might be the biggest fool's-good candidate in the top 20 this year due to that one great year, his age and the likely decline in his durability over the course of whatever deal he signs.
This is a classic "old player's skills" player, patient with power, striking out a lot and contributing little on defense. As long as he can catch part-time, he's an everyday player who has a chance to be above average, but his defense has always been shaky and he probably couldn't catch full-time even if a team wanted him to.
He does get on base even when he's not hitting for average, and his power isn't just dead-pull, so there are reasons to think he won't head off the cliff as a hitter in his early 30s. But if he's mostly a first baseman or DH, that bat's a lot less valuable.
Rank Player
14 Rafael Soriano
Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Rafael Soriano
Rafael Soriano
#29 RP
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM69
W2
L1
BB24
K69
ERA2.26
Soriano bounced back from an injury-shortened 2011 season to more or less return to his 2010 form, when he spent one year with Tampa Bay before landing a wildly player-friendly deal with the Yankees.
Throwing more sliders than ever before, Soriano still kept his walk rate down and kept the ball in the park enough to be an eighth- or ninth-inning option for most teams going forward. He's sitting mostly 90-94 mph now, and the increased use of the slider has actually made the fastball more effective.
I don't know how many more years of effectiveness remain in this arm and I believe he's only good for 60 to 70 innings at the extreme, but the market is almost certain to overvalue him with multiple years because of his capital-C Closer experience.
Rank Player
15 A.J. Pierzynski
Age: 36 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: C
'12 team: Chicago White Sox Status:
Terms:
A.J. Pierzynski
A.J. Pierzynski
#12 C
Chicago White Sox
2012 STATS
GM135
HR27
RBI77
R68
OBP.326
AVG.278
Pierzynski's power spike at age 35 will not recur, but this winter's market for catchers is abysmal and he does have a track record of hitting for average and some doubles power, making a lot of contact and never walking. If that doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement, you're right, and the potential for Pierzynski -- an average defender behind the plate -- to fall off a cliff on offense or defense is quite high given his age and career total of more than 13,000 major league innings at catcher.
He should be good for .280/.310/.420 for another year or two before that happens.
Rank Player
16 Adam LaRoche
Age: 33 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: 1B
'12 team: Washington Nationals Status:
Terms:
Adam LaRoche
Adam LaRoche
#25 1B
Washington Nationals
2012 STATS
GM154
HR33
RBI100
R76
OBP.343
AVG.271
LaRoche was healthy in 2012 and showed off his raw power along with his elite defense at first base, which earned him (he said, half-mockingly) his first Gold Glove.
He's also 33 and an old-man's skills hitter, with patience and power but lots of strikeouts and just one season in his career when he topped a .280 average. He's a well below-average runner and a dead fastball hitter, so any loss of bat speed could be catastrophic. For now, he's a solid player good for three wins above replacement, but long-term projections are going to slope down fairly steeply.
I'd love to have him for one year, would be content with two years and would jump into the Potomac River before giving him four.
Rank Player
17 Melky Cabrera
Age: 28 Bats: B Throws: L
Position: LF
'12 team: San Francisco Giants Status:
Terms:
Melky Cabrera
Melky Cabrera
#53 LF
San Francisco Giants
2012 STATS
GM113
HR11
RBI60
R84
OBP.390
AVG.346
Cabrera's 2012 season looked like a severe statistical fluke; he was thriving almost entirely on a spike in his batting average on balls in play, with his lack of patience and power exactly where they were prior to his trade to San Francisco.
He isn't a selective hitter but has good plate coverage. His ability to convert more of that contact into hits is what changed, or seemed to change, this season. However, his suspension for testosterone use throws his entire performance into doubt. Some teams will assume his performance boost was due to testosterone and others will look at the BABIP jump and figure he would have eventually come back to earth.
He's a poor center fielder who's just average in left or right. But despite the PED and makeup questions, every team should be willing to give him a one-year deal, as even a return to his 2011 performance level would allow him to play every day for some clubs.
Rank Player
18 Torii Hunter
Age: 37 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: OF
'12 team: Los Angeles Angels Status:
Terms:
Torii Hunter
Torii Hunter
#48 RF
Los Angeles Angels
2012 STATS
GM140
HR16
RBI92
R81
OBP.365
AVG.313
Hunter is one of the most respected players in the game by both fellow players and members of the media, so it pains me to rain on his free-agent parade. But what you saw from Hunter in 2012 isn't at all indicative of what he's going to provide on his next deal.
He's been losing bat speed for the past few years and compensated this season by being much more aggressive earlier in the count, even if the pitch in question wasn't one worth swinging at. His power is diminished, and he's not going to hit .390 on balls in play again, so what you're likely buying is a .330 OBP guy who plays a very good right field and has great makeup. That's a solid player -- an everyday guy -- but nothing more, with the downside risk of any position player in his late 30s. (Torii Hunter is in his late 30s. That sounds very, very wrong to me.)
I'd take him for a year without hesitation, but if the .313 average makes someone go three years or more, they are asking for trouble.
Rank Player
19 Hisashi Iwakuma
Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Seattle Mariners Status:
Terms:
Hisashi Iwakuma
Hisashi Iwakuma
#18 SP
Seattle Mariners
2012 STATS
GM30
W9
L5
BB43
K101
ERA3.16
Iwakuma languished in Seattle's bullpen in the first half of 2012 but was much more effective when he entered their rotation, posting a 2.65 ERA while cutting his walk and home run rates compared to what they were when he was working in relief.
While his velocity is just average, Iwakuma can sink the fastball and throws a hard splitter that's not far below the speed of his fastball, adding to the deception from the pitch's tumble. His slider is short but comes in around 80-82 mph with some late dive, while he could probably lose the low-70s curveball that doesn't miss bats but presents the potential for damage if he hangs it.
I worry about the potential for home runs from the average fastball and fringy curve, but the combination of above-average control and high ground ball rates make him very appealing as a potential No. 3 or good No. 4 starter.
Rank Player
20 Angel Pagan
Age: 31 Bats: B Throws: R
Position: CF
'12 team: San Francisco Giants Status:
Terms:
Angel Pagan
Angel Pagan
#16 CF
San Francisco Giants
2012 STATS
GM154
HR8
RBI56
R95
OBP.338
AVG.288
Pagan might have raised his free-agent stock this October -- not so much with his performance, but simply by getting exposure, showing that while he lacks a plus tool beyond running speed, he has a number of ways to contribute to a club even in an outfield corner.
A switch-hitter, Pagan has more power and a better eye from the left side, opening his hips early when hitting right-handed, although he's comfortable going the other way rather than trying to pull pitches he can't get to. He's an above-average defender in an outfield corner but would come in average or below if asked to play center regularly. That plus running speed has helped Pagan add value through basestealing and baserunning over the past few years, although that's the kind of tool that can fade quickly as a player gets into his mid-30s. I'd love to get Pagan on a two- to three-year deal to play left and to slide over to center as a backup when needed, hitting him eighth or ninth since he doesn't get on base enough to be an ideal leadoff guy.
I don't foresee more 5-WAR seasons in Pagan's future, between his age, his reliance on his legs and the potential for a widening platoon split that eventually leaves him as a part-time player.
Rank Player
21 Ryan Madson
Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Cincinnati Reds Status:
Terms:
Ryan Madson
Ryan Madson
#46 RP
Cincinnati Reds
2011 STATS
GM62
W4
L2
BB16
K62
ERA2.37
Madson seemed like a better bet than most relievers to stay healthy when he signed a once-year deal with Cincy last winter, but he blew out his elbow before ever throwing a pitch for the Reds and now reenters the market off a lost season.
Before his injury, Madson had evolved into a mostly two-pitch reliever, with an above-average fastball at 92-95 mph and a plus-plus changeup with great deception and late downward action. He'll mix in the occasional cutter to keep hitters off his four-seamer, but it's nothing more than a show-me pitch to mess with hitters' minds.
He'll probably need lighter handling in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery, and his control might take some time to fully return, but by the second year he should be back to his pre-injury form and workload.
Rank Player
22 Brandon McCarthy
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Oakland Athletics Status:
Terms:
Brandon McCarthy
Brandon McCarthy
#32 SP
Oakland Athletics
2012 STATS
GM18
W8
L6
BB24
K73
ERA3.24
McCarthy was among the biggest and best surprises in the American League in 2011, but a shoulder injury and a concussion suffered when he was hit in the head with a line drive limited him to 111 innings in 2012.
Aside from health, the main difference between his two seasons was in his ability to keep his two main pitches, a cutter and a sinker, down in the zone; he left more of both pitches up, especially in the first half, and too many of them turned into line drives. His velocity was fine, with both pitches in the 89-92 range, and he can change eye levels with an upper-70s curveball. He's not going to miss a ton of bats, but he will avoid walks and, if healthy, should be able to generate groundballs as he did the prior season.
Assuming he's healthy enough for a regular workload of 160 to 170 innings this year, he should be worth 2-3 wins above replacement.
Rank Player
23 Shaun Marcum
Age: 31 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Milwaukee Brewers Status:
Terms:
Shaun Marcum
Shaun Marcum
#18 SP
Milwaukee Brewers
2012 STATS
GM21
W7
L4
BB41
K109
ERA3.70
Marcum has succeeded for years despite a fastball in the upper 80s because of a plus changeup, a short slider he can locate and a very aggressive, almost combative pitching plan.
A heavy workload in his first year back from elbow surgery in 2010 seems to have taken its toll, however, and he now seems to be relegated to pitching with a below-average fastball without the precise command he'll need to be more than a fourth or fifth starter. He started to compensate for the lost velocity by throwing the fastball less in 2012 than he ever had in any previous season, throwing more sliders and cutters -- almost like a right-handed Doug Davis, but without Davis' fear of contact.
I love that Marcum goes after hitters like they kicked his dog, but a fastball at 85-88 mph is too hittable for the heart of the plate, and he'll need to continue to adjust his approach to pitch in the middle of anyone's rotation.
Rank Player
24 Kevin Youkilis
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: 3B
'12 team: Chicago White Sox Status:
Terms:
Kevin Youkilis
Kevin Youkilis
#20 3B
Chicago White Sox
2012 STATS
GM122
HR19
RBI60
R72
OBP.336
AVG.235
If Youkilis' knee is healthy for most of 2013 -- which is a significant assumption -- he should be a 2.5-3 WAR player, even with his defense at third declining. He's still incredibly disciplined at the plate, rarely swinging and missing at pitches out of the zone, seeing more than four pitches per plate appearance and drawing walks.
The knee injury that cost him some time in 2012 sapped a lot of his power -- even doubles power -- because of how much he used his lower half to drive the ball, and of course limited his ability to take the field and to handle third base.
He'll probably be paid like a full-time player, but the repeated trouble with his knee, even after the trade to Chicago, would make me wary of guaranteeing him more than part-timer money going forward.
Rank Player
25 Ichiro Suzuki
Age: 39 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Ichiro Suzuki
Ichiro Suzuki
#31 LF
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM162
HR9
RBI55
R77
OBP.307
AVG.283
Ichiro looked rejuvenated after a midseason trade from Seattle to New York, a process helped by a ballpark that's quite friendly to left-handed hitters, with Yankee Stadium accounting for five of his nine home runs in just 21 percent of his season's plate appearances.
He remains an above-average runner who plays plus defense in right field -- even with an outlier figure in 2011, from 2009 to 2012 he averaged 7.5 runs saved on defense relative to an average right-fielder, according to UZR. And he can handle center on an emergency basis.
I like him a lot more if he's used part-time, platooned against lefties and used as a defensive replacement, but he'll probably get offers for full-time work based on his name value and strong finish with the Yankees.
Rank Player
26 Jeremy Guthrie
Age: 33 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Kansas City Royals Status:
Terms:
Jeremy Guthrie
Jeremy Guthrie
#33 SP
Kansas City Royals
2012 STATS
GM33
W8
L12
BB50
K101
ERA4.76
Guthrie remade himself after a midseason "your problem for my problem" trade that sent him from Colorado to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez. The move gave him back his confidence in his fastball and allowed him to return to his old pitching style, getting ahead with the fastball or curveball and finishing guys off with the slider.
That slider is the key for him going forward -- when he gets it down at 83-84 mph, it's an above-average pitch, but when he leaves it up in the 79-82 range, it's far too hittable. Aside from a fluky injury in April 2012, Guthrie's been very durable, averaging 202 innings a year from 2008 to 2011, and I think he can come close to league-average territory again now that he's out of Denver.
Rank Player
27 Ryan Ludwick
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: Cincinnati Reds Status:
Terms:
Ryan Ludwick
Ryan Ludwick
#48 LF
Cincinnati Reds
2012 STATS
GM125
HR26
RBI80
R53
OBP.346
AVG.275
Ludwick's performance in 2012 produced the second-best WAR of his career (per FanGraphs), after his extreme outlier season in 2008, but this time around it looks just as unsustainable. He fattened up on a lot of weak pitching in 2012, especially within the NL Central, and is very vulnerable to off-speed stuff, especially changeups.
He's a below-average defender in left, good enough to fill the position but a net negative once he's there. If he's challenged by better competition and has a little less randomness go his way, he'll be back to extra-outfielder status this year.
Rank Player
28 Lance Berkman
Age: 37 Bats: B Throws: L
Position: 1B
'12 team: St. Louis Cardinals Status:
Terms:
Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman
#12 1B
St. Louis Cardinals
2012 STATS
GM32
HR2
RBI7
R12
OBP.381
AVG.259
Berkman's season was lost to two knee surgeries, making his superb 2011 performance a distant memory because of uncertainty over how much he'll be able to take the field.
He does still dominate right-handed pitching, both in power and in getting on base, and could use the rest afforded to him if he's used in a strict left/right platoon. He'll play at age 37 this year and almost certainly has to be handled carefully, probably as a DH and bat off the bench with minimal time in the field.
He's a potential asset to an AL team with a flexible manager who grasps platoon mechanics, such as Joe Maddon or Buck Showalter, but is probably best suited for an incentive-laden deal with a low base because of his health.
Rank Player
29 Shane Victorino
Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: R
Position: LF
'12 team: Los Angeles Dodgers Status:
Terms:
Shane Victorino
Shane Victorino
#8 LF
Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 STATS
GM154
HR11
RBI55
R72
OBP.321
AVG.255
Victorino's bat speed has slowed to the point where he's best utilized as a fourth outfielder who can fill any of the three outfield spots and come off the bench as a right-handed hitter, since even in his prime he was never very good hitting from the left side.
He has an above-average arm and is still an asset on the bases despite the occasional boneheaded play -- it's almost surprising how good he is at reading pitchers' moves when you consider how poor his instincts look at times. He's a one-year-deal player at this point, but the lack of center-field options might encourage some team to give him two or three years to be a starter.
Rank Player
30 Kyuji Fujikawa
Age: 32 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: RHP
'12 team: Hanshin Tigers Status:
Terms:
Fujikawa
Kyuji Fujikawa
#22 RP
Hanshin Tigers
2012 STATS
GM48
W2
L2
BB15
K58
ERA1.32
The closer for the Hanshin Tigers is a true free agent now at age 32 after a successful 12-year NPB career that saw him strike out one out of every three batters he faced.
He's not as dominant as he used to be and pitches with a solid-average fastball and a good splitter that is occasionally plus, showing more of a steady drop than the abrupt tumble of a really good splitter. He also missed some time in 2012 with an adductor strain, and hasn't thrown 70 innings in a season since 2007.
He has potential as a setup man but I don't think he's an elite reliever unless that splitter gets sharper or more consistent.
Law's complete top 50: 1-10 Insider | 11-30 Insider | 31-50 Insider
Rank Player
1 Zack Greinke
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Los Angeles Angels Status:
Terms:
Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke
#23 SP
Los Angeles Angels
2012 STATS
GM34
W15
L5
BB54
K200
ERA3.48
Greinke is the top free agent available, a pitcher who has the repertoire, feel and command of a top-of-the-rotation starter and the durability teams should expect from a pitcher who will be paid like an ace.
He will pitch in the low to mid-90s, adding and subtracting, working to both corners regardless of where the hitter bats and throwing strikes with all of his pitches. His breaking stuff, both a curve and slider, misses bats, with the slider showing good tilt in the low 80s and the curveball, mostly in the mid-70s but occasionally down in the upper 60s, showing very good depth and looking harder than its true velocity when it leaves his hand. His changeup is probably his weakest pitch, too hard and a little straight, but he is willing to backfoot the slider to a left-handed batter in changeup counts. He comes from a slot just below three-quarters with a very clean, easy arm action and good athleticism that contributes to his above-average fielding potential. He has been very durable, reaching 200 innings in four of the past five years, missing that mark in 2011 due to a rib injury he suffered while playing basketball.
What you will hear about Greinke, unfortunately, are references to his battles with anxiety and depression, as if they constitute bad makeup or make him unfit to play in a high-pressure market. Greinke's condition, which is a medical matter and not a personality defect, has been under control for years, and he has pitched in pennant races the past two years, this last one in a major media market. If he is not a true No. 1 starter, then he's a 1A, which is more about an occasional tendency to get too much of the plate than about any softness in his character. I'd be very comfortable giving him a five-year deal.
Rank Player
2 B.J. Upton
Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: CF
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
B.J. Upton
B.J. Upton
#2 CF
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM146
HR28
RBI78
R79
OBP.298
AVG.246
Bossman Junior is one of the most aggravating players in the majors because he has the tools to be a superstar but hasn't been able to put all of them into action at the same time for more than a few months. He enters free agency at age 28 coming off a disappointing season that saw his walk rate plummet as he gave up some patience for more power, a trade-off that boosted his superficial stats but made him less valuable overall.
The one thing that concerns me about Upton's 2012 season isn't specifically his on-base percentage but how often he missed fastballs in the zone or fouled them off rather than squaring them up. Upton has good bat speed and remains a great athlete who can run, throw and play a very good center field. He is young enough to maintain those skills for the next five years, but he needs to find a workable middle ground between his swing-at-everything approach of 2012 and the more patient approach he had earlier in his career.
Rank Player
3 Josh Hamilton
Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton
#32 CF
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM148
HR43
RBI128
R103
OBP.354
AVG.285
Hamilton has the bat speed, the eye at the plate and the raw power to hit the way he did two years ago, when he won the AL MVP award. But while his bat is willing, his body is weak. He shouldn't be counted on for more than 120-130 games per year, perhaps a little less if he is asked to play center field and a little more if he is allowed to play left or even DH part time to save the wear and tear on his body.
He could be an above-average defender if he plays left full time, but his bat is less valuable there than it would be up the middle. At the plate, he has 80 raw power (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with tremendous bat speed, although his approach has started to deteriorate the past two years. He looked particularly vulnerable to lefties who can spin something away from him in that span.
Hamilton should have been in line for a monster deal this winter, but major league scouts who went in to see him in September had to come away with reservations. His power was there, but he looked like more of a mistake hitter. He has some more 2010-like stretches in him, but I doubt he plays 150 games in any one season again. Since he's an old 31 already, I'd be loath to go beyond three years.
Rank Player
4 Michael Bourn
Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: CF
'12 team: Atlanta Braves Status:
Terms:
Michael Bourn
Michael Bourn
#24 CF
Atlanta Braves
2012 STATS
GM155
HR9
RBI57
R96
OBP.348
AVG.274
Bourn is a premium defensive center fielder, one of the best in the game, and a tremendous baserunner, doing just enough with the bat to make him an above-average regular and borderline All-Star.
His primary value is with his glove, as he has outstanding range derived from his plus raw speed and good instincts in center. He is the type of player who would be ideal on a team with a large center field to cover or simply one with a flyball-oriented pitching staff. He is an aggressive baserunner, with a career success rate over 80 percent on stolen bases, and he adds further value through his ability to take extra bases when hitters after him put the ball in play.
His swing is very closed and doesn't generate much power, as he uses his hands more than his legs and tries to hit line drives to all fields. That closed stance after his stride means he can be tied up on the inner half, at or under his hands, such as a fastball from a lefty or a slider down and in from a righty. Given his speed, however, the approach works because he is a threat to reach base whenever he puts the ball in play.
The one concern I have with Bourn is that so much of his value is tied up in his legs, rather than his eyes or his bat. He is one major leg injury or a series of smaller ones away from losing the value he contributes on defense and on the bases. That value could diminish if he loses speed due to age as he gets into his 30s. I don't think either scenario is highly likely, but it's the major risk in signing a player like Bourn to a lengthy deal.
Rank Player
5 Hiroki Kuroda
Age: 38 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Hiroki Kuroda
Hiroki Kuroda
#18 SP
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM33
W16
L11
BB51
K167
ERA3.32
Kuroda is one of a small number of free agents on this list who aren't entirely free, as he is willing to sign only with teams in certain markets. That said, his performance in the tougher league and an unfriendly ballpark in 2012 should help give him his pick of destinations in 2013 and perhaps a two-year deal if he wants one.
In my rankings last year, I raised concerns about the drop in his ground ball rate (43.2 percent in 2011) and rise in his line-drive rate in 2011, but with the Yankees, he reversed the trend and posted the best ground ball rate of his career (53.2 percent), trading a little velocity for a little more sink on the fastball and getting better bottom on his splitter. His mid-80s slider is still an effective weapon against right-handed hitters, but his curveball, by far his least-used option, is more of a show-me pitch -- one he should probably use less.
Kuroda should be worth at least three wins above replacement again in 2013 and, even entering his age-38 season, is worth a two-year commitment.
Rank Player
6 Kyle Lohse
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: St. Louis Cardinals Status:
Terms:
Kyle Lohse
Kyle Lohse
#26 SP
St. Louis Cardinals
2012 STATS
GM33
W16
L3
BB38
K143
ERA2.86
Has Lohse really remade himself as a pitcher, as some have suggested, or merely improved by throwing more strikes while getting more help from his defense? I'm inclined toward the latter, making Lohse more attractive as an innings-eater than a difference-maker for a contender.
He has averaged nearly 200 innings the past two years and just posted the best walk rate of his career, the fourth-best rate (as a percentage of batters faced) of any qualifying starter in the National League in 2012. Lohse pitches with an average to fringe-average fastball, right around 90 mph, and his go-to pitch is an 83-86 mph slider that is more like a slider/cutter, with a short break that allows him to keep it in the zone when he needs to but doesn't have the swing-and-miss power of a true slider with hard break down and away from right-handed batters.
That lack of a true out pitch would concern me if I were looking at signing Lohse and had a porous defense or wanted to sign him beyond two years to an age where diminishing velocity would be a concern. If he loses another grade off his fastball, he'll drop to fifth-starter territory or worse.
Rank Player
7 Dan Haren
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Los Angeles Angels Status:
Terms:
Dan Haren
Dan Haren
#24 SP
Los Angeles Angels
2012 STATS
GM30
W12
L13
BB38
K142
ERA4.33
He has been one of the most durable starters in the majors over the past six years but made the first DL trip of his career in July when a back problem that flared up in early June became too much to pitch through. After that, however, he was close to his old self, posting a 3.95 ERA with a strikeout-walk ratio of 5-to-1 and a slightly elevated home run rate. That latter point is a concern, as he was giving up the long ball on all pitches, leaving fastballs way up in the zone at 88-90 but also getting less consistent bottom on his splitter, making the pitch as hittable as a hanging slider.
Haren has the plus command and control to be successful even with a fringe-average fastball as long as he has that splitter working and missing bats. But getting a consistent release point is difficult with back trouble, and Haren has never been able to strike guys out purely with stuff.
The risk associated with a pitcher who has had back trouble -- while this was Haren's first DL stint, it wasn't his first bout of back pain -- is enormous, which will likely limit how much teams are willing to guarantee Haren. The flip side is that, when healthy, he is reliable and pitches at a very high level, someone who would be a No. 2 in just about any rotation.
Rank Player
8 Edwin Jackson
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Washington Nationals Status:
Terms:
Edwin Jackson
Edwin Jackson
#33 SP
Washington Nationals
2012 STATS
GM31
W10
L11
BB58
K168
ERA4.03
It's time to accept that this is almost certainly what Jackson is going to be. He looks like an ace, holding mid-90s velocity or better for 100 pitches, but just turned in another season of good-not-great performance, this time entirely in the National League.
His 2012 season looks a lot like his 2010, with a couple of extra home runs and a lot fewer wild pitches. Even though he is 29, he has more than 1,200 major-league innings across seven organizations and no pitching coach has been able to get him over the hump.
Jackson is held back by limited fastball command and a tendency to try to pitch up in the zone with it, which is kind of what hitters want. He has a very hard, short-breaking slider that hitters swing over or tap into the ground. If Jackson could get ahead in the count with the fastball more consistently, he'd have more opportunities to try to finish hitters off with that slider. But too often hitters get a chance to put that high heat in place.
He is very durable and can show flashes of greatness, but it's hard to see him taking a step forward after so many failed attempts to turn him into an ace.
Rank Player
9 Anibal Sanchez
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Detroit Tigers Status:
Terms:
Anibal Sanchez
Anibal Sanchez
#19 SP
Detroit Tigers
2012 STATS
GM31
W9
L13
BB48
K167
ERA3.86
Sanchez had significant shoulder problems earlier in his career but has been healthy since the start of 2010, making himself into an above-average starter thanks to a plus changeup with good deception and at times some late tumble.
He mostly pitches at 90-94 but saw his velocity creep upward after a midseason trade to Detroit, even touching 95-96 on occasion. His fastball doesn't have great life, but his ability to locate it has improved over the past two years and he usually stays out of the middle-up part of the zone, where he'd be very homer-prone. His workloads have been consistent for three years -- between 820 and 841 batters faced in each season -- and his walk rate keeps improving, with a career-best 5.5 percent this year. That changeup has made him extremely effective against left-handed batters, producing reverse platoon splits the past two seasons.
I'd be wary of his history of shoulder trouble even with the recent durability, but otherwise he is a worthy candidate for a high-salary, three-year deal.
Rank Player
10 Nick Swisher
Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Nick Swisher
Nick Swisher
#33 RF
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM148
HR24
RBI93
R75
OBP.364
AVG.272
Swisher was very consistent over his four years in New York, posting WAR totals (FanGraphs' version) between 3.2 and 4.1 in each season, with his OBP -- his greatest asset as a hitter -- also sitting in a narrow range. He is a patient, almost passive hitter who tries to get himself into fastball counts whenever possible and remains very good at laying off breaking stuff outside the zone. He is a legitimate switch-hitter, with more power when hitting from the left side but enough production from the right side to remain viable as a full-time regular.
On defense, Swisher is a solid-average glove in right field with an enough arm and can fill in on an emergency basis in center, although given his age, his defense will likely decline over the life of any contract. Players with this passive approach tend not to age well into their 30s, but his power and ability to hit from both sides make him attractive on a three-year deal, where he'd probably still be a league-average right fielder when it's over.
Rank Player
1 Zack Greinke
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Los Angeles Angels Status:
Terms:
Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke
#23 SP
Los Angeles Angels
2012 STATS
GM34
W15
L5
BB54
K200
ERA3.48
Greinke is the top free agent available, a pitcher who has the repertoire, feel and command of a top-of-the-rotation starter and the durability teams should expect from a pitcher who will be paid like an ace.
He will pitch in the low to mid-90s, adding and subtracting, working to both corners regardless of where the hitter bats and throwing strikes with all of his pitches. His breaking stuff, both a curve and slider, misses bats, with the slider showing good tilt in the low 80s and the curveball, mostly in the mid-70s but occasionally down in the upper 60s, showing very good depth and looking harder than its true velocity when it leaves his hand. His changeup is probably his weakest pitch, too hard and a little straight, but he is willing to backfoot the slider to a left-handed batter in changeup counts. He comes from a slot just below three-quarters with a very clean, easy arm action and good athleticism that contributes to his above-average fielding potential. He has been very durable, reaching 200 innings in four of the past five years, missing that mark in 2011 due to a rib injury he suffered while playing basketball.
What you will hear about Greinke, unfortunately, are references to his battles with anxiety and depression, as if they constitute bad makeup or make him unfit to play in a high-pressure market. Greinke's condition, which is a medical matter and not a personality defect, has been under control for years, and he has pitched in pennant races the past two years, this last one in a major media market. If he is not a true No. 1 starter, then he's a 1A, which is more about an occasional tendency to get too much of the plate than about any softness in his character. I'd be very comfortable giving him a five-year deal.
Rank Player
2 B.J. Upton
Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: CF
'12 team: Tampa Bay Rays Status:
Terms:
B.J. Upton
B.J. Upton
#2 CF
Tampa Bay Rays
2012 STATS
GM146
HR28
RBI78
R79
OBP.298
AVG.246
Bossman Junior is one of the most aggravating players in the majors because he has the tools to be a superstar but hasn't been able to put all of them into action at the same time for more than a few months. He enters free agency at age 28 coming off a disappointing season that saw his walk rate plummet as he gave up some patience for more power, a trade-off that boosted his superficial stats but made him less valuable overall.
The one thing that concerns me about Upton's 2012 season isn't specifically his on-base percentage but how often he missed fastballs in the zone or fouled them off rather than squaring them up. Upton has good bat speed and remains a great athlete who can run, throw and play a very good center field. He is young enough to maintain those skills for the next five years, but he needs to find a workable middle ground between his swing-at-everything approach of 2012 and the more patient approach he had earlier in his career.
Rank Player
3 Josh Hamilton
Age: 31 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: Texas Rangers Status:
Terms:
Josh Hamilton
Josh Hamilton
#32 CF
Texas Rangers
2012 STATS
GM148
HR43
RBI128
R103
OBP.354
AVG.285
Hamilton has the bat speed, the eye at the plate and the raw power to hit the way he did two years ago, when he won the AL MVP award. But while his bat is willing, his body is weak. He shouldn't be counted on for more than 120-130 games per year, perhaps a little less if he is asked to play center field and a little more if he is allowed to play left or even DH part time to save the wear and tear on his body.
He could be an above-average defender if he plays left full time, but his bat is less valuable there than it would be up the middle. At the plate, he has 80 raw power (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with tremendous bat speed, although his approach has started to deteriorate the past two years. He looked particularly vulnerable to lefties who can spin something away from him in that span.
Hamilton should have been in line for a monster deal this winter, but major league scouts who went in to see him in September had to come away with reservations. His power was there, but he looked like more of a mistake hitter. He has some more 2010-like stretches in him, but I doubt he plays 150 games in any one season again. Since he's an old 31 already, I'd be loath to go beyond three years.
Rank Player
4 Michael Bourn
Age: 30 Bats: L Throws: R
Position: CF
'12 team: Atlanta Braves Status:
Terms:
Michael Bourn
Michael Bourn
#24 CF
Atlanta Braves
2012 STATS
GM155
HR9
RBI57
R96
OBP.348
AVG.274
Bourn is a premium defensive center fielder, one of the best in the game, and a tremendous baserunner, doing just enough with the bat to make him an above-average regular and borderline All-Star.
His primary value is with his glove, as he has outstanding range derived from his plus raw speed and good instincts in center. He is the type of player who would be ideal on a team with a large center field to cover or simply one with a flyball-oriented pitching staff. He is an aggressive baserunner, with a career success rate over 80 percent on stolen bases, and he adds further value through his ability to take extra bases when hitters after him put the ball in play.
His swing is very closed and doesn't generate much power, as he uses his hands more than his legs and tries to hit line drives to all fields. That closed stance after his stride means he can be tied up on the inner half, at or under his hands, such as a fastball from a lefty or a slider down and in from a righty. Given his speed, however, the approach works because he is a threat to reach base whenever he puts the ball in play.
The one concern I have with Bourn is that so much of his value is tied up in his legs, rather than his eyes or his bat. He is one major leg injury or a series of smaller ones away from losing the value he contributes on defense and on the bases. That value could diminish if he loses speed due to age as he gets into his 30s. I don't think either scenario is highly likely, but it's the major risk in signing a player like Bourn to a lengthy deal.
Rank Player
5 Hiroki Kuroda
Age: 38 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Hiroki Kuroda
Hiroki Kuroda
#18 SP
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM33
W16
L11
BB51
K167
ERA3.32
Kuroda is one of a small number of free agents on this list who aren't entirely free, as he is willing to sign only with teams in certain markets. That said, his performance in the tougher league and an unfriendly ballpark in 2012 should help give him his pick of destinations in 2013 and perhaps a two-year deal if he wants one.
In my rankings last year, I raised concerns about the drop in his ground ball rate (43.2 percent in 2011) and rise in his line-drive rate in 2011, but with the Yankees, he reversed the trend and posted the best ground ball rate of his career (53.2 percent), trading a little velocity for a little more sink on the fastball and getting better bottom on his splitter. His mid-80s slider is still an effective weapon against right-handed hitters, but his curveball, by far his least-used option, is more of a show-me pitch -- one he should probably use less.
Kuroda should be worth at least three wins above replacement again in 2013 and, even entering his age-38 season, is worth a two-year commitment.
Rank Player
6 Kyle Lohse
Age: 34 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: St. Louis Cardinals Status:
Terms:
Kyle Lohse
Kyle Lohse
#26 SP
St. Louis Cardinals
2012 STATS
GM33
W16
L3
BB38
K143
ERA2.86
Has Lohse really remade himself as a pitcher, as some have suggested, or merely improved by throwing more strikes while getting more help from his defense? I'm inclined toward the latter, making Lohse more attractive as an innings-eater than a difference-maker for a contender.
He has averaged nearly 200 innings the past two years and just posted the best walk rate of his career, the fourth-best rate (as a percentage of batters faced) of any qualifying starter in the National League in 2012. Lohse pitches with an average to fringe-average fastball, right around 90 mph, and his go-to pitch is an 83-86 mph slider that is more like a slider/cutter, with a short break that allows him to keep it in the zone when he needs to but doesn't have the swing-and-miss power of a true slider with hard break down and away from right-handed batters.
That lack of a true out pitch would concern me if I were looking at signing Lohse and had a porous defense or wanted to sign him beyond two years to an age where diminishing velocity would be a concern. If he loses another grade off his fastball, he'll drop to fifth-starter territory or worse.
Rank Player
7 Dan Haren
Age: 32 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Los Angeles Angels Status:
Terms:
Dan Haren
Dan Haren
#24 SP
Los Angeles Angels
2012 STATS
GM30
W12
L13
BB38
K142
ERA4.33
He has been one of the most durable starters in the majors over the past six years but made the first DL trip of his career in July when a back problem that flared up in early June became too much to pitch through. After that, however, he was close to his old self, posting a 3.95 ERA with a strikeout-walk ratio of 5-to-1 and a slightly elevated home run rate. That latter point is a concern, as he was giving up the long ball on all pitches, leaving fastballs way up in the zone at 88-90 but also getting less consistent bottom on his splitter, making the pitch as hittable as a hanging slider.
Haren has the plus command and control to be successful even with a fringe-average fastball as long as he has that splitter working and missing bats. But getting a consistent release point is difficult with back trouble, and Haren has never been able to strike guys out purely with stuff.
The risk associated with a pitcher who has had back trouble -- while this was Haren's first DL stint, it wasn't his first bout of back pain -- is enormous, which will likely limit how much teams are willing to guarantee Haren. The flip side is that, when healthy, he is reliable and pitches at a very high level, someone who would be a No. 2 in just about any rotation.
Rank Player
8 Edwin Jackson
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Washington Nationals Status:
Terms:
Edwin Jackson
Edwin Jackson
#33 SP
Washington Nationals
2012 STATS
GM31
W10
L11
BB58
K168
ERA4.03
It's time to accept that this is almost certainly what Jackson is going to be. He looks like an ace, holding mid-90s velocity or better for 100 pitches, but just turned in another season of good-not-great performance, this time entirely in the National League.
His 2012 season looks a lot like his 2010, with a couple of extra home runs and a lot fewer wild pitches. Even though he is 29, he has more than 1,200 major-league innings across seven organizations and no pitching coach has been able to get him over the hump.
Jackson is held back by limited fastball command and a tendency to try to pitch up in the zone with it, which is kind of what hitters want. He has a very hard, short-breaking slider that hitters swing over or tap into the ground. If Jackson could get ahead in the count with the fastball more consistently, he'd have more opportunities to try to finish hitters off with that slider. But too often hitters get a chance to put that high heat in place.
He is very durable and can show flashes of greatness, but it's hard to see him taking a step forward after so many failed attempts to turn him into an ace.
Rank Player
9 Anibal Sanchez
Age: 29 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: SP
'12 team: Detroit Tigers Status:
Terms:
Anibal Sanchez
Anibal Sanchez
#19 SP
Detroit Tigers
2012 STATS
GM31
W9
L13
BB48
K167
ERA3.86
Sanchez had significant shoulder problems earlier in his career but has been healthy since the start of 2010, making himself into an above-average starter thanks to a plus changeup with good deception and at times some late tumble.
He mostly pitches at 90-94 but saw his velocity creep upward after a midseason trade to Detroit, even touching 95-96 on occasion. His fastball doesn't have great life, but his ability to locate it has improved over the past two years and he usually stays out of the middle-up part of the zone, where he'd be very homer-prone. His workloads have been consistent for three years -- between 820 and 841 batters faced in each season -- and his walk rate keeps improving, with a career-best 5.5 percent this year. That changeup has made him extremely effective against left-handed batters, producing reverse platoon splits the past two seasons.
I'd be wary of his history of shoulder trouble even with the recent durability, but otherwise he is a worthy candidate for a high-salary, three-year deal.
Rank Player
10 Nick Swisher
Age: 32 Bats: B Throws: L
Position: OF
'12 team: New York Yankees Status:
Terms:
Nick Swisher
Nick Swisher
#33 RF
New York Yankees
2012 STATS
GM148
HR24
RBI93
R75
OBP.364
AVG.272
Swisher was very consistent over his four years in New York, posting WAR totals (FanGraphs' version) between 3.2 and 4.1 in each season, with his OBP -- his greatest asset as a hitter -- also sitting in a narrow range. He is a patient, almost passive hitter who tries to get himself into fastball counts whenever possible and remains very good at laying off breaking stuff outside the zone. He is a legitimate switch-hitter, with more power when hitting from the left side but enough production from the right side to remain viable as a full-time regular.
On defense, Swisher is a solid-average glove in right field with an enough arm and can fill in on an emergency basis in center, although given his age, his defense will likely decline over the life of any contract. Players with this passive approach tend not to age well into their 30s, but his power and ability to hit from both sides make him attractive on a three-year deal, where he'd probably still be a league-average right fielder when it's over.
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