jumpmanfromdabay
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“@Ken_Rosenthal: Source confirms: Greinke 6 years, $147M. His $24.5M average would be highest in history for a pitcher, surpassing CC Sabathia's $24.4M.”
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
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That's what has me concerned.
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He'll be alright. He isn't even slotted to be the Ace. That's Kershaw.
Kershaw
Greinke
Billingsley
Lilly
Capuano
Harang
Beckett
...anybody need arms. 2 out of Harang/Lilly/Capuano will be wearing different uni's next season.
Kershaw
Greinke
Billingsley
Lilly
Capuano
Harang
Beckett
...anybody need arms. 2 out of Harang/Lilly/Capuano will be wearing different uni's next season.
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Eh LA isnt Boston or NY, or even STL. We love the dodgers but the media isn't all that crazy IMHO. His biggest worries would be traffic, simers, or enraged cholos
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Simers can rot in hell.
And the Giants should be concerned moving forward. Because 1-2 years time the Dodgers will be king of the NL West.
jumpmanfromdabay
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We will see.
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Dodgers sign Ryu
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Don't see how the Greinke deal is a bad one, on par with the deals Hamels and Cain received via extension.
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mark reynolds to cleveland...
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Greinke's contract 
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@Royals: #Royals acquire RHPs James Shields, Wade Davis and player to be named or cash from Tampa Bay for Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery and Leonard.
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******g dumb *** Royals.
He's not as good as them IMO. Especially for six years. It's not just him, it's just the insane amount of money on the payroll for players who aren't that great.
The Royals management needs to be disbanded for this trade.
I didn't see Retro's post, holy **** at the players going to Tampa for two years of a #2 and a #4 starter? Six years of team control for Myers. Two upside arms. Because why? They think he'll go through growing pains that Hosmer and Moustakas went through? Jesus ******g Christ.
for two years of a #2 and a #4 starter? Six years of team control for Myers. Two upside arms. Because why? They think he'll go through growing pains that Hosmer and Moustakas went through? Jesus ******g Christ.
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DeadsetAce
Supporter
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god damn, LA
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McCarthyYou'll be missed in Oakland. Best of luck. Hope he can stay healthy because we all know what he can do.
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This. But at the same time, Dayton Moore and his regime could give a damn about the next six years. If they don't win the division (long shot with a healthy Detroit in the mix) or win the wild card (long shot considering the strength of the AL east), Moore and company are done-zo.I didn't see Retro's post, holy **** at the players going to Tampafor two years of a #2 and a #4 starter? Six years of team control for Myers. Two upside arms. Because why? They think he'll go through growing pains that Hosmer and Moustakas went through? Jesus ******g Christ.
After a while, you have to deal prospects for sure things. Once upon a time, Alex Gordon was ranked the #1 prospect in KC's farm system in back-to-back years and was heralded as the second coming of George Brett. So too was Hosmer and Moustakas. All three of these guys give you solid production and the jury is still out on the star potential of Hosmer and Moustakas. But "blue chip" prospects are just that: containers into which scouts pour their dreams and comparisons.
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Blue-chip Myers and two other top prospects for two years of Shields and a relief pitcher? Is this real life?
Tampa annoys me. And as always, the Royals will be the Royals.
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I didn't see Retro's post, holy **** at the players going to Tampa
You really think he's a number two, he's playing in front of the best defense in baseball and in one of the most severe pitching parks. I think he's a 3/4 honestly and I think the royals better hope Hosemer and Moustakes hit the tar out of the baseball next year.
at4768
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man i baseball, can't wait for the tigers to start back up
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Annnnnd Dayton Moore is still Dayton Moore.You have the most valuable prospect in baseball and you trade him AND MORE for James Shields... Ouch.
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Big Game James is a BEAST mayne
He gets No run support and still Eats up Innings.
Gonna miss Dude.
Myers Needs to be up in the Bigs from Day one. if Rays talk about upping the offensive output, time to prove it.
He gets No run support and still Eats up Innings.
Gonna miss Dude.
Myers Needs to be up in the Bigs from Day one. if Rays talk about upping the offensive output, time to prove it.
Man, I was trying to be a little nice about is Osh
Myers acquisition a coup for Rays.
Differing GM styles slowing trade market.
Dodgers now clear NL West favorite.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' new problem.
The best alternative to Greinke.
D-backs gain flexibility with McCarthy.
Rumors.
Myers acquisition a coup for Rays.
The Kansas City Royals' main goal this offseason had to be to make the club into a potential 85-win team, at a minimum. In a desperately weak AL Central, an 85-win baseline puts you within variance of contention -- a little luck, a breakout or two, some ill fortune in Detroit or Chicago -- and that's about the best GM Dayton Moore could reasonably have accomplished in one winter.
The best path to do that was to try to max out the lineup, adding top prospect Wil Myers in right field in place of Jeff Francoeur and all the outs he makes, letting new hitting coach Jack Maloof try to fix Eric Hosmer by getting his hands down, and adding starting pitching whenever possible. Instead, the Royals traded Myers for pitching help in a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays featuring James Shields that might make them slightly better in the short term but at a severe long-term cost. And it's quite possible they don't even sniff 80 wins with the pitching they just acquired, unless there's another substantial deal coming.
Royals get help at a cost
The Royals did get pitching help for 2013, clearly. They had no one on their 2012 staff who was close to as valuable as Shields was -- using Fangraphs' WAR, for one quick reference point, Shields' total of 4.3 was more than double that of any Royals' starters. Kansas City used a lot of replacement-level arms in its rotation this past season and might have done so again, so Shields really could add 4-5 wins to the Royals' win total by adding 220 of his usual innings and ridding the team of the need to use guys the caliber of Nate Adcock and Vin Mazzaro. Shields has plus command with an out-pitch changeup and an above-average curveball, but can be homer-prone because his fastball isn't that hard and is a little true. His contract will pay him more than $22 million over the next two years, making him a good value but not an outstanding one.
Kansas City also got Wade Davis in this deal, and I'd like to see him given another shot in the rotation even with his newfound success in relief, where his stuff got dramatically better and his strikeout rate spiked. It could be a spring training experiment in which the team stretches him out and sees how his arm responds. If he's back down to 2011 levels, they scrap it and put him in the pen, but when he was coming up as a prospect he threw harder and had better bite on his curveball.
At 92-95 mph on his fastball with a curveball around 80-82, which is what he was in the minors but less than what he showed in relief this year, he'd have a chance to be a league-average starter, especially given his size and capacity to handle 200 innings. Even a 2-WAR guy is helpful to a team that just nonsensically guaranteed it will pay Luke Hochevar about $5.5 million to post a 5-plus ERA, and Davis could be better than that if his stuff holds up in the rotation. At worst, he returns to the pen where he was excellent in 2012, but only provides about 70 innings of work.
[+] Enlarge
James ShieldsKim Klement/US PresswireA workhorse, Shields has thrown more than 225 innings in each of the last two years.
The net result for the Royals, assuming that the player to be named later is not significant, is that they probably added 3-4 wins for 2013 with this trade, and that's just not enough to get them into contention, or to justify giving up one of the top two pure hitting prospects (along with Oscar Taveras of the St. Louis Cardinals) in all of the minors. The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions.
Unfortunately, as with former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and the Erik Bedard deal, trades made under those circumstances often come back around to be the cause of a change in leadership. This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end.
Rays cash in
For Tampa Bay, this is a heist, a potential franchise-making deal that should allow the Rays to continue their run of contention on a dime for several more years as they acquire a centerpiece bat in Myers, a potential mid-rotation starter in Jake Odorizzi, and two other prospects, none of whom has more than a few days of major-league service -- meaning the Rays get six years of club control of each of them.
Myers is by far the most important name here, a top-five prospect in all of baseball who has raked at every level and should have debuted in the majors this summer but was blocked by the Royals' Francoeur fetish. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he has lengthened his stride at the plate, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple-A. I could see him debuting this year with a modest average but strong power numbers, only to bring the average up in time because he's a smart, patient hitter who'll also increase his bat control as his body matures. In the long run, he's a potential top-five overall player in the league, and you don't get guys like that just any day.
Odorizzi finished strongly in Triple-A for the Royals this year and is major league ready, or close to it. The righty is a former high school wide receiver who's very athletic with a clean, repeatable delivery -- maybe too clean as he doesn't have a ton of deception and his 90-94 mph fastball is straight, making him a touch homer-prone. He has a four-pitch mix, led by a solid-to-average changeup that produced a reverse platoon split for him across Double- and Triple-A this year. I'd like to see him scrap one breaking ball, more likely the curve, to see if committing to one such pitch makes it more effective, but even without that I like his athleticism and fastball command even if he's not more more than an emergency call-up in 2013.
Lefty Mike Montgomery has the widest range of possible outcomes of the four players in the deal, because he has the stuff of a No. 2 starter and the command of the little kid down the block who aims for the living room window and breaks one on the second floor instead.
He's had minor elbow issues but never had a serious injury; he was struggling with his landing in spring training, a relatively minor thing to fix, but was worse in 2012 than he had been the year before.
Montgomery will touch 97 and sit in the low to mid-90s with an above-average changeup and a big, slow curveball that looks pretty but isn't hard or sharp enough to be more than a third pitch in his arsenal. He has had disputes with the Royals' player-development people over aspects of his between-outings regimen, and perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. His arm is live enough that he's absolutely worth taking a flier on even though there's a fairly high chance he ends up in the pen or as nothing at all.
The Rays also got short-season outfielder Patrick Leonard, who has plus raw power from a somewhat uphill swing and a plus arm, although he's probably headed for first base in the long run and will have to show real improvement in his hit tool to profile there.
The Rays still have a surplus of starters, with David Price the ace, Matt Moore not far behind, and Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all candidates for the other three spots, while Odorizzi himself is probably ready for a major league role. More importantly, Myers could be their second-best hitter at some point this year, behind only Evan Longoria, given a mildly optimistic forecast for a guy who has always hit when healthy.
Myers also gives them the impact hitting prospect they haven't had since Longoria -- their best position-player prospects, such as Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, and even Tim Beckham before his fall from grace -- have all been up-the-middle guys with more defensive value and less bat. Myers should be a good defensive right fielder in time, as he's a good athlete with very good instincts, but his value is going to come on offense, and that's something the Rays lack, even in the upper levels of their system.
He alone, for two years of Shields and three years of Davis (who has club options beyond that), would have made sense. To get Myers plus a likely mid-rotation starter, plus a lefty with arm strength, plus a low-level hitting prospect, makes this an outstanding day for Rays fans.
The best path to do that was to try to max out the lineup, adding top prospect Wil Myers in right field in place of Jeff Francoeur and all the outs he makes, letting new hitting coach Jack Maloof try to fix Eric Hosmer by getting his hands down, and adding starting pitching whenever possible. Instead, the Royals traded Myers for pitching help in a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays featuring James Shields that might make them slightly better in the short term but at a severe long-term cost. And it's quite possible they don't even sniff 80 wins with the pitching they just acquired, unless there's another substantial deal coming.
Royals get help at a cost
The Royals did get pitching help for 2013, clearly. They had no one on their 2012 staff who was close to as valuable as Shields was -- using Fangraphs' WAR, for one quick reference point, Shields' total of 4.3 was more than double that of any Royals' starters. Kansas City used a lot of replacement-level arms in its rotation this past season and might have done so again, so Shields really could add 4-5 wins to the Royals' win total by adding 220 of his usual innings and ridding the team of the need to use guys the caliber of Nate Adcock and Vin Mazzaro. Shields has plus command with an out-pitch changeup and an above-average curveball, but can be homer-prone because his fastball isn't that hard and is a little true. His contract will pay him more than $22 million over the next two years, making him a good value but not an outstanding one.
Kansas City also got Wade Davis in this deal, and I'd like to see him given another shot in the rotation even with his newfound success in relief, where his stuff got dramatically better and his strikeout rate spiked. It could be a spring training experiment in which the team stretches him out and sees how his arm responds. If he's back down to 2011 levels, they scrap it and put him in the pen, but when he was coming up as a prospect he threw harder and had better bite on his curveball.
At 92-95 mph on his fastball with a curveball around 80-82, which is what he was in the minors but less than what he showed in relief this year, he'd have a chance to be a league-average starter, especially given his size and capacity to handle 200 innings. Even a 2-WAR guy is helpful to a team that just nonsensically guaranteed it will pay Luke Hochevar about $5.5 million to post a 5-plus ERA, and Davis could be better than that if his stuff holds up in the rotation. At worst, he returns to the pen where he was excellent in 2012, but only provides about 70 innings of work.
[+] Enlarge
James ShieldsKim Klement/US PresswireA workhorse, Shields has thrown more than 225 innings in each of the last two years.
The net result for the Royals, assuming that the player to be named later is not significant, is that they probably added 3-4 wins for 2013 with this trade, and that's just not enough to get them into contention, or to justify giving up one of the top two pure hitting prospects (along with Oscar Taveras of the St. Louis Cardinals) in all of the minors. The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions.
Unfortunately, as with former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and the Erik Bedard deal, trades made under those circumstances often come back around to be the cause of a change in leadership. This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end.
Rays cash in
For Tampa Bay, this is a heist, a potential franchise-making deal that should allow the Rays to continue their run of contention on a dime for several more years as they acquire a centerpiece bat in Myers, a potential mid-rotation starter in Jake Odorizzi, and two other prospects, none of whom has more than a few days of major-league service -- meaning the Rays get six years of club control of each of them.
Myers is by far the most important name here, a top-five prospect in all of baseball who has raked at every level and should have debuted in the majors this summer but was blocked by the Royals' Francoeur fetish. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he has lengthened his stride at the plate, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple-A. I could see him debuting this year with a modest average but strong power numbers, only to bring the average up in time because he's a smart, patient hitter who'll also increase his bat control as his body matures. In the long run, he's a potential top-five overall player in the league, and you don't get guys like that just any day.
Odorizzi finished strongly in Triple-A for the Royals this year and is major league ready, or close to it. The righty is a former high school wide receiver who's very athletic with a clean, repeatable delivery -- maybe too clean as he doesn't have a ton of deception and his 90-94 mph fastball is straight, making him a touch homer-prone. He has a four-pitch mix, led by a solid-to-average changeup that produced a reverse platoon split for him across Double- and Triple-A this year. I'd like to see him scrap one breaking ball, more likely the curve, to see if committing to one such pitch makes it more effective, but even without that I like his athleticism and fastball command even if he's not more more than an emergency call-up in 2013.
Lefty Mike Montgomery has the widest range of possible outcomes of the four players in the deal, because he has the stuff of a No. 2 starter and the command of the little kid down the block who aims for the living room window and breaks one on the second floor instead.
He's had minor elbow issues but never had a serious injury; he was struggling with his landing in spring training, a relatively minor thing to fix, but was worse in 2012 than he had been the year before.
Montgomery will touch 97 and sit in the low to mid-90s with an above-average changeup and a big, slow curveball that looks pretty but isn't hard or sharp enough to be more than a third pitch in his arsenal. He has had disputes with the Royals' player-development people over aspects of his between-outings regimen, and perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. His arm is live enough that he's absolutely worth taking a flier on even though there's a fairly high chance he ends up in the pen or as nothing at all.
The Rays also got short-season outfielder Patrick Leonard, who has plus raw power from a somewhat uphill swing and a plus arm, although he's probably headed for first base in the long run and will have to show real improvement in his hit tool to profile there.
The Rays still have a surplus of starters, with David Price the ace, Matt Moore not far behind, and Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all candidates for the other three spots, while Odorizzi himself is probably ready for a major league role. More importantly, Myers could be their second-best hitter at some point this year, behind only Evan Longoria, given a mildly optimistic forecast for a guy who has always hit when healthy.
Myers also gives them the impact hitting prospect they haven't had since Longoria -- their best position-player prospects, such as Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, and even Tim Beckham before his fall from grace -- have all been up-the-middle guys with more defensive value and less bat. Myers should be a good defensive right fielder in time, as he's a good athlete with very good instincts, but his value is going to come on offense, and that's something the Rays lack, even in the upper levels of their system.
He alone, for two years of Shields and three years of Davis (who has club options beyond that), would have made sense. To get Myers plus a likely mid-rotation starter, plus a lefty with arm strength, plus a low-level hitting prospect, makes this an outstanding day for Rays fans.
Differing GM styles slowing trade market.
When it comes to wheeling and dealing, Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers has a solid reputation as a gunslinger. In fact, at one point in his tenure with the San Diego Padres, he and then-manager Bruce Bochy were depicted in riding chaps and cowboy hats on the cover of the team’s annual media guide -- an image he’d probably prefer people forget.
However, this offseason, Towers has been in the middle of as many trade talks as any general manager in baseball. And yet, he saw no results, which forced him to tiptoe into free agency, inking right-hander Brandon McCarthy to a two-year contract last week.
At the winter meetings, Towers was reminiscing with me about the good old days when GMs actually had trade talks one club at a time, trying to make deals just GM to GM. He remembered when he used to make deals on cocktail napkins at the bar of the winter meetings that would quickly be consummated the next day.
No longer.
Towers said he never had a single trade discussion in Nashville that didn’t include multiple teams with dozens of players being discussed, changed and mixed by the minute, not the hour. Towers reminded me how difficult it is to get two teams to tango together, let alone half a dozen teams.
Sunday night’s blockbuster trade between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals typifies how a deal can be made between a “new-school” general manager, such as Andrew Friedman, and an “old-school” GM, such as Dayton Moore. They pulled off the type of trade that has become increasingly difficult to do.
The reality in baseball is there exists a clear schism between new-school and old-school GMs, and it has nothing to do with the "stats versus scouts" debate. That divide is slowing down the trade activity in the industry.
It’s a question of style
The new-school GMs include many of today’s bright young minds who all love to think outside of the box and try to find more complicated ways to make better trades. They want to improve multiple levels of their teams and often use aggressive negotiation tactics.
The problem is some of the old-school GMs don’t like the new method of doing deals and prefer to have serious trade talks with the GMs who speak the same language. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has been just as active as Towers, and he’s closed two significant trades this month with old-school GMs Ruben Amaro (Philadelphia Phillies) and Mike Rizzo (Washington Nations), acquiring Vance Worley, Trevor May and Alex Meyer, three young arms the Twins desperately need.
"Old-school" general managers
GM TEAM
Sandy Alderson New York Mets
Ruben Amaro Philadelphia Phillies
Billy Beane Oakland Athletics
Larry Beinfest President, Miami Marlins
Brian Cashman New York Yankees
Ned Colletti Los Angeles Dodgers
Dave Dombrowski Detroit Tigers
Dan Duquette Baltimore Orioles
Walt Jocketty Cincinnati Reds
Doug Melvin Milwaukee Brewers
Dayton Moore Kansas City Royals
Mike Rizzo Washington Nationals
Terry Ryan Minnesota Twins
Brian Sabean San Francisco Giants
Kevin Towers Arizona Diamondbacks
Frank Wren Atlanta Braves
Jack Zduriencik Seattle Mariners
In Towers’ opinion, the style of "new-school" GMs changed over the past two years, and he feels he has to re-enact Muhammad Ali’s “rope-a-dope,” in which Ali just stood and took punches as he figured out -- and tried to tire out -- his opponent. These GMs are peppering him with “9 million ideas” every minute via texts and emails from all directions, and Towers has more bells ringing than the pinball machines he used to play as a kid.
Towers said he will continue to work on four- and five-way deals in hopes of landing his long-term solution at shortstop. He’s playing along in the Justin Upton discussions and is open to moving right-hander Trevor Bauer, one of his most promising young starters. His counterparts keep bringing him ideas, and in doing his due diligence he keeps listening and gives his counter-proposals. It’s just not his preferred way to do business, and it wouldn’t be surprising if some of these multi-team proposals end up leading to a more simplistic deal like two young starters to the Cleveland Indians for Asdrubal Cabrera or Francisco Lindor.
Ryan told me he’s been overwhelmed by the style of new-school GMs, and is, quite frankly, worn out by their approach. Instead, he’s stayed focused on improving his starting pitching and zeroed in on the two teams with whom he had the best shot of making a trade. He worked hard with the Nationals before finally trading Denard Span for Meyer. Ryan would have loved to get a second piece, but involving multiple teams might have caused this deal to fall through. In the end, Ryan needed to improve the Twins, and pulling the trigger on a deal that brings back the team’s biggest need -- starting pitching -- was necessary.
In the Philly deal, Amaro didn’t want to include both pitchers and felt it was a slight overpay for speedy outfielder Ben Revere. However, when B.J. Upton got five years and $75 million, then listened to Scott Boras' asking price for Michael Bourn (more than what Upton got), he clearly realized paying a little bit more and solving center field was a lot less costly than the free-agent market.
Get used to it
The podium at the winter meetings might have been the loneliest place in Nashville, Tenn. It was just used twice for active player-related moves. The first was to officially announce the David Wright signing that occurred prior to the commencement of the meetings and the second was to announce Alex Rodriguez’s hip surgery.
"New-school" general managers
GM TEAM
Alex Anthopolous Toronto Blue Jays
Chris Antonetti Cleveland Indians
Josh Byrnes San Diego Padres
Ben Cherington Boston Red Sox
Jon Daniels Texas Rangers
Jerry DiPoto Los Angeles Angels
Andrew Friedman Tampa Bay Rays
Bill Geivett Colorado Rockies
Jed Hoyer Chicago Cubs
Neal Huntington Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeff Luhnow Houston Astros
John Mozeliak St. Louis Cardinals
The lack of free-agent activity was blamed on the bottleneck at the top of the class, as everyone waited for Zack Greinke to decide (he chose the Dodgers), and Josh Hamilton to test the market. (In my opinion, Hamilton likely will stay with the Rangers as soon as they supply him with a suitable offer.)
However, what about the trade market? Why was there so much inactivity in an industry that was dying to make moves? Besides the free-agent market, many executives pointed directly to the divide between old-school and new-school general managers.
For more than a decade, people have tried to differentiate these two schools of thought simply on how each side evaluated players. Old-school GMs were too dependent on scouting reports and archaic ways to measure statistics, instead of advanced metrics and video breakdown. They also weighted makeup and character more heavily than they should.
However, the fact is old- and new-school methods to evaluate players have come together basically as one package of information. Certainly, San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean will continue to weigh makeup and loyalty more heavily than other categories, and Ryan will continue to place more emphasis on scouting than new-school GMs. On the other hand, Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein of the Cubs will continue to use sabermetrics more than Towers. But overall, every team blends scouting and analytics when evaluating players.
This is a golden age for baseball, as we have more information available to us than ever before, and many tech-savvy GMs are taking advantage of this in an effort to swing deals. However, the human element remains important, especially if you have just 29 other human beings with whom to do business. If some of them, like Ryan and Towers, prefer a style that’s more suited for the way they like to do business, and if a style or strategy prevents deals from getting done, then perhaps an adjustment should be made. This is a results-oriented business and the Nationals and Phillies wouldn’t have solved their center field woes if they didn’t understand the best way to do business with Ryan was with a straightforward style of negotiation.
There is no right or wrong style, and technology will continue to play a larger role in how deals are made. That said, it's imperative that all GMs learn how to deal with the other 29 if they want to maximize their chances of success.
However, this offseason, Towers has been in the middle of as many trade talks as any general manager in baseball. And yet, he saw no results, which forced him to tiptoe into free agency, inking right-hander Brandon McCarthy to a two-year contract last week.
At the winter meetings, Towers was reminiscing with me about the good old days when GMs actually had trade talks one club at a time, trying to make deals just GM to GM. He remembered when he used to make deals on cocktail napkins at the bar of the winter meetings that would quickly be consummated the next day.
No longer.
Towers said he never had a single trade discussion in Nashville that didn’t include multiple teams with dozens of players being discussed, changed and mixed by the minute, not the hour. Towers reminded me how difficult it is to get two teams to tango together, let alone half a dozen teams.
Sunday night’s blockbuster trade between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals typifies how a deal can be made between a “new-school” general manager, such as Andrew Friedman, and an “old-school” GM, such as Dayton Moore. They pulled off the type of trade that has become increasingly difficult to do.
The reality in baseball is there exists a clear schism between new-school and old-school GMs, and it has nothing to do with the "stats versus scouts" debate. That divide is slowing down the trade activity in the industry.
It’s a question of style
The new-school GMs include many of today’s bright young minds who all love to think outside of the box and try to find more complicated ways to make better trades. They want to improve multiple levels of their teams and often use aggressive negotiation tactics.
The problem is some of the old-school GMs don’t like the new method of doing deals and prefer to have serious trade talks with the GMs who speak the same language. Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan has been just as active as Towers, and he’s closed two significant trades this month with old-school GMs Ruben Amaro (Philadelphia Phillies) and Mike Rizzo (Washington Nations), acquiring Vance Worley, Trevor May and Alex Meyer, three young arms the Twins desperately need.
"Old-school" general managers
GM TEAM
Sandy Alderson New York Mets
Ruben Amaro Philadelphia Phillies
Billy Beane Oakland Athletics
Larry Beinfest President, Miami Marlins
Brian Cashman New York Yankees
Ned Colletti Los Angeles Dodgers
Dave Dombrowski Detroit Tigers
Dan Duquette Baltimore Orioles
Walt Jocketty Cincinnati Reds
Doug Melvin Milwaukee Brewers
Dayton Moore Kansas City Royals
Mike Rizzo Washington Nationals
Terry Ryan Minnesota Twins
Brian Sabean San Francisco Giants
Kevin Towers Arizona Diamondbacks
Frank Wren Atlanta Braves
Jack Zduriencik Seattle Mariners
In Towers’ opinion, the style of "new-school" GMs changed over the past two years, and he feels he has to re-enact Muhammad Ali’s “rope-a-dope,” in which Ali just stood and took punches as he figured out -- and tried to tire out -- his opponent. These GMs are peppering him with “9 million ideas” every minute via texts and emails from all directions, and Towers has more bells ringing than the pinball machines he used to play as a kid.
Towers said he will continue to work on four- and five-way deals in hopes of landing his long-term solution at shortstop. He’s playing along in the Justin Upton discussions and is open to moving right-hander Trevor Bauer, one of his most promising young starters. His counterparts keep bringing him ideas, and in doing his due diligence he keeps listening and gives his counter-proposals. It’s just not his preferred way to do business, and it wouldn’t be surprising if some of these multi-team proposals end up leading to a more simplistic deal like two young starters to the Cleveland Indians for Asdrubal Cabrera or Francisco Lindor.
Ryan told me he’s been overwhelmed by the style of new-school GMs, and is, quite frankly, worn out by their approach. Instead, he’s stayed focused on improving his starting pitching and zeroed in on the two teams with whom he had the best shot of making a trade. He worked hard with the Nationals before finally trading Denard Span for Meyer. Ryan would have loved to get a second piece, but involving multiple teams might have caused this deal to fall through. In the end, Ryan needed to improve the Twins, and pulling the trigger on a deal that brings back the team’s biggest need -- starting pitching -- was necessary.
In the Philly deal, Amaro didn’t want to include both pitchers and felt it was a slight overpay for speedy outfielder Ben Revere. However, when B.J. Upton got five years and $75 million, then listened to Scott Boras' asking price for Michael Bourn (more than what Upton got), he clearly realized paying a little bit more and solving center field was a lot less costly than the free-agent market.
Get used to it
The podium at the winter meetings might have been the loneliest place in Nashville, Tenn. It was just used twice for active player-related moves. The first was to officially announce the David Wright signing that occurred prior to the commencement of the meetings and the second was to announce Alex Rodriguez’s hip surgery.
"New-school" general managers
GM TEAM
Alex Anthopolous Toronto Blue Jays
Chris Antonetti Cleveland Indians
Josh Byrnes San Diego Padres
Ben Cherington Boston Red Sox
Jon Daniels Texas Rangers
Jerry DiPoto Los Angeles Angels
Andrew Friedman Tampa Bay Rays
Bill Geivett Colorado Rockies
Jed Hoyer Chicago Cubs
Neal Huntington Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeff Luhnow Houston Astros
John Mozeliak St. Louis Cardinals
The lack of free-agent activity was blamed on the bottleneck at the top of the class, as everyone waited for Zack Greinke to decide (he chose the Dodgers), and Josh Hamilton to test the market. (In my opinion, Hamilton likely will stay with the Rangers as soon as they supply him with a suitable offer.)
However, what about the trade market? Why was there so much inactivity in an industry that was dying to make moves? Besides the free-agent market, many executives pointed directly to the divide between old-school and new-school general managers.
For more than a decade, people have tried to differentiate these two schools of thought simply on how each side evaluated players. Old-school GMs were too dependent on scouting reports and archaic ways to measure statistics, instead of advanced metrics and video breakdown. They also weighted makeup and character more heavily than they should.
However, the fact is old- and new-school methods to evaluate players have come together basically as one package of information. Certainly, San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean will continue to weigh makeup and loyalty more heavily than other categories, and Ryan will continue to place more emphasis on scouting than new-school GMs. On the other hand, Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein of the Cubs will continue to use sabermetrics more than Towers. But overall, every team blends scouting and analytics when evaluating players.
This is a golden age for baseball, as we have more information available to us than ever before, and many tech-savvy GMs are taking advantage of this in an effort to swing deals. However, the human element remains important, especially if you have just 29 other human beings with whom to do business. If some of them, like Ryan and Towers, prefer a style that’s more suited for the way they like to do business, and if a style or strategy prevents deals from getting done, then perhaps an adjustment should be made. This is a results-oriented business and the Nationals and Phillies wouldn’t have solved their center field woes if they didn’t understand the best way to do business with Ryan was with a straightforward style of negotiation.
There is no right or wrong style, and technology will continue to play a larger role in how deals are made. That said, it's imperative that all GMs learn how to deal with the other 29 if they want to maximize their chances of success.
Dodgers now clear NL West favorite.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' spending spree, which may only be interrupted by the heat death of the universe, continued in huge fashion this weekend with their reported agreement with free-agent starter Zack Greinke and signing of Korean lefty Hyun-jin Ryu, whom they had won negotiating rights to via the posting system. Greinke gives them one of the best nominal No. 2 starters in the game, an ace in most rotations, while Ryu will join the back of the team's rotation but could eventually end up in the 'pen.
Greinke was the top free-agent starter available this offseason and his reported six-year, $147 million contract -- now the highest ever for a right-hander -- was probably driven up by three other factors. One, the Dodgers are operating their own currency system independent of the U.S. Treasury, inspired no doubt by my great-great-great-uncle John. Two, Greinke was far and away the best starter available in free agency this year, the only one with even the potential to post a 6-WAR season. If you wanted an ace, it was Greinke or bust, with the next group of arms all looking more like good mid-rotation guys. Three, perhaps most importantly of all, baseball teams are swimming in cash, with no place else to put it but into the major league roster.
The current CBA curtailed spending on amateur talent even as the value of that talent has been increasing. If you can't put all this extra cash into the Rule 4 draft or into Latin America, you're going to put it into improving your big league club -- unless you own the Miami Marlins, in which case you're going to put it in your pockets.
I have never bought into the argument that Greinke's history with social anxiety disorder and depression makes him a poor fit for a large market -- there's a joke to be made here about the number of therapists in L.A. -- and I'm glad to see that the Dodgers don't buy it, either. Greinke is capable of pitching at a high level in any market, and he's an unusually good bet to stay healthy because his delivery is low effort and he tends to pace himself during games, preserving his best stuff for higher-leverage situations. No starting pitcher is likely to outperform the contract Greinke just got, but he's got a better chance than most to make it look good in the end, just as Mike Mussina did for the New York Yankees on his seven-year deal.
I've received widely varying reports on Ryu's potential here in MLB, ranging from reliever to future No. 3 starter. I fall more into the former camp based on video I've seen and the specifics of his scouting report; he's a bad-bodied left-hander with an out-pitch changeup, average to above-average fastball and fringy breaking ball. The Dodgers gave him a six-year, $36 million deal after paying a $25.7 million posting fee.
The pair of signings gives the Dodgers a surplus in their rotation, even assuming Chad Billingsley bows to fate and has elbow surgery and that Ted Lilly isn't healthy, either. Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano aren't league-average pitchers but could be above replacement level for someone on what is for each a de facto one-year deal. The Dodgers don't have to worry about money, apparently, so they could agree to pay those pitchers' full salaries and get a prospect or a fringy big leaguer in return.
The Dodgers have the best team on paper in the division at this point, not just due to their offseason but due to the potential to have Matt Kemp fully healthy for the first time since April. The San Francisco Giants have moved to bring back the same team that won the World Series in 2012, but haven't upgraded the roster anywhere, with very little upside from their lineup at this point and no Melky Cabrera in left.
Although it's anathema to the way GM Brian Sabean has run this club, it might make sense for the Giants to look at dealing Madison Bumgarner, who looked fatigued late in the season, for a young bat. Bumgarner has five years of team control left at $35 million in total salary, with two club options beyond that.
Greinke was the top free-agent starter available this offseason and his reported six-year, $147 million contract -- now the highest ever for a right-hander -- was probably driven up by three other factors. One, the Dodgers are operating their own currency system independent of the U.S. Treasury, inspired no doubt by my great-great-great-uncle John. Two, Greinke was far and away the best starter available in free agency this year, the only one with even the potential to post a 6-WAR season. If you wanted an ace, it was Greinke or bust, with the next group of arms all looking more like good mid-rotation guys. Three, perhaps most importantly of all, baseball teams are swimming in cash, with no place else to put it but into the major league roster.
The current CBA curtailed spending on amateur talent even as the value of that talent has been increasing. If you can't put all this extra cash into the Rule 4 draft or into Latin America, you're going to put it into improving your big league club -- unless you own the Miami Marlins, in which case you're going to put it in your pockets.
I have never bought into the argument that Greinke's history with social anxiety disorder and depression makes him a poor fit for a large market -- there's a joke to be made here about the number of therapists in L.A. -- and I'm glad to see that the Dodgers don't buy it, either. Greinke is capable of pitching at a high level in any market, and he's an unusually good bet to stay healthy because his delivery is low effort and he tends to pace himself during games, preserving his best stuff for higher-leverage situations. No starting pitcher is likely to outperform the contract Greinke just got, but he's got a better chance than most to make it look good in the end, just as Mike Mussina did for the New York Yankees on his seven-year deal.
I've received widely varying reports on Ryu's potential here in MLB, ranging from reliever to future No. 3 starter. I fall more into the former camp based on video I've seen and the specifics of his scouting report; he's a bad-bodied left-hander with an out-pitch changeup, average to above-average fastball and fringy breaking ball. The Dodgers gave him a six-year, $36 million deal after paying a $25.7 million posting fee.
The pair of signings gives the Dodgers a surplus in their rotation, even assuming Chad Billingsley bows to fate and has elbow surgery and that Ted Lilly isn't healthy, either. Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano aren't league-average pitchers but could be above replacement level for someone on what is for each a de facto one-year deal. The Dodgers don't have to worry about money, apparently, so they could agree to pay those pitchers' full salaries and get a prospect or a fringy big leaguer in return.
The Dodgers have the best team on paper in the division at this point, not just due to their offseason but due to the potential to have Matt Kemp fully healthy for the first time since April. The San Francisco Giants have moved to bring back the same team that won the World Series in 2012, but haven't upgraded the roster anywhere, with very little upside from their lineup at this point and no Melky Cabrera in left.
Although it's anathema to the way GM Brian Sabean has run this club, it might make sense for the Giants to look at dealing Madison Bumgarner, who looked fatigued late in the season, for a young bat. Bumgarner has five years of team control left at $35 million in total salary, with two club options beyond that.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' new problem.
We had the Los Angeles Dodgers on "Sunday Night Baseball" on May 20, at a time when the team was fighting to stay in first place without Matt Kemp. They were 27-13, and before the game, manager Don Mattingly had spoken with admiration about his players, about how they were competing. He acknowledged that it would be very difficult for them to continue to play that well with Kemp sidelined, but he loved what he was seeing in how the players trusted each other.
Their No. 2 hitter was Elian Herrera, Bobby Abreu was their No. 3 hitter, and their best player at that time was probably A.J. Ellis. I remember thinking during that night how the Dodgers seemed to have more energy in their dugout than any team I had seen other than the San Francisco Giants, and of course, they all went crazy when Scott Van Slyke bashed a three-run pinch-hit homer.
But the Dodgers won't field a team anything like that any time soon; there may never be a day in our lifetimes when they will be viewed as gritty, gutty underachievers. In the seven months since the new Dodgers ownership has been in place, it has spent $650 million, or about the same as Frank McCourt spent over six seasons, from 2006-11.
Six hundred fifty million. In seven months. Including the $61 million spent on Hyun-Jin Ryu.
The Dodgers have 10 players on their roster who are set to make at least $11 million.
One of their new owners told one of the Dodgers' front office executives that his goal is to have an All-Star at every position, and they are close to making that happen. Their No. 1 starter, Clayton Kershaw, is among the three or four best pitchers on the planet, and their No. 2 starter, Zack Greinke, is the highest-paid right-handed pitcher ever.
A lineup like this looks really good on paper:
LF Carl Crawford
2B Mark Ellis
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Kemp
RF Andre Ethier
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B Luis Cruz
C Ellis
P Kershaw
But with the riches comes a very different type of pressure, and Mattingly has the experience to know this as well as anyone, having played his entire career with the New York Yankees, and for George Steinbrenner. The Dodgers have so many All-Stars and have spent so much money that joylessness could become a major opponent.
From the very first day of spring training, they will face more scrutiny than any other team in the majors. They will be expected to win, and any series of losses will be followed with "How come you guys stink?" questions. Anything short of a deep run into the postseason will be regarded as a failure, and if they win, their owners will get the bulk of the credit.
This dynamic will test their clubhouse, and it will be interesting to see how the Dodgers' leadership develops. Kershaw is a candidate for this, even at a young age, and I'd bet that Greinke will really like playing with him. Kemp has been a leader among the position players before all the additions; some folks in the clubhouse say the chemistry among the position players was still a work in progress as the 2012 season ended.
The Giants have won two of the last three World Series yet they will be regarded as underdogs because of the Dodgers' payroll escalation. "The funny thing," said a rival evaluator, "is that I think the Giants are still the better team."
That very well could be the case. The Dodgers, as currently constructed, could have a major defensive problem at shortstop with Ramirez. They look as if they could be vulnerable against left-handed pitching, and although they have again invested heavy dollars in their bullpen, there are questions about the quality of that group.
In May, there wasn't any pressure on the Dodgers. Their owner had slowly stripped down their payroll, and they had few resources to improve the team around Kershaw, Kemp and Ethier. Now they have all the resources and all the All-Stars, and that won't be as easy as it sounds -- but nobody will feel sorry for them, ever again.
Rays-Royals deal
I've written this here before and it's appropriate again today: If Rays GM Andrew Friedman did his work at Vegas blackjack tables rather than at St. Petersburg's Trop, he'd be the guy who always adhered to his point system. He wouldn't take another card while standing at 17, ever, and he'd be the last guy to ever say he had a gut feeling that the next card was going to work out. The Rays have stayed at the contenders' table for a remarkably long time -- we'll be going on six years in 2013 -- despite their inherent disadvantages, because Friedman has so skillfully managed the pile of chips.
So in trading James Shields, there was no chance that he would get less than exactly what he needed and wanted. He had excellent leverage, because the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks both wanted Shields, a pitcher whose contract in structured in such a way that makes him even more attractive as a trade target: In a series of team options, Shields is set to make $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014, limiting the risk for the team acquiring him.
Wil Myers could become the Rays' next Evan Longoria: You'll probably see him called up a handful of days into the 2013 season, after he misses enough days to have his free agency backed up to 2019 rather than 2018, and then he'll hit in the middle of the Tampa Bay lineup.
And the Rays could approach him with the same type of deal that they have dangled in front of all their best young players, built on the same philosophy that this Rays-Royals swap is built on: a guarantee up front of at least some payoff, and in return for that, the Rays position themselves to extract value over the long term.
The Royals are looking at it from a different perspective: They believe their window of opportunity is opening right now, with their talented young core of position players -- which could be the best in the American League if Eric Hosmer rebounds from his poor second season. Kansas City has a very underrated and dominant bullpen, as well.
Some Royals evaluators had told their peers at other teams early in the offseason that KC wasn't under pressure from ownership to contend in 2013, and that more development was needed -- a surprising evaluation, in the eyes of rival evaluators. "I don't think they're that far away, in that division," said one GM. "You get the right starting pitching and they could challenge [Detroit]."
Shields could be that guy. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2011 and after a miserable first half in 2012, he had the majors' fifth-best ERA in the second half. He and Wade Davis lead a group that has Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, and if they get even a mediocre effort out of the rotation, that might be enough to push the Tigers. It'll be a very different-looking team if Hosmer improves.
Dayton Moore is going all-in for next season.
Friedman clearly got the better value in the deal, in the eyes of Keith Law. That's almost a given; when Friedman has the leverage, when he has the cards -- as he did in this situation -- he isn't going to make a bad trade. The Royals got what they want, too.
This trade is a reach for Moore, writes Sam Mellinger. From his column:
To be clear: I'm with what seems to be the industry consensus, that the Royals are reaching too far and too early and giving up too much.
Myers may be their best homegrown position player since Carlos Beltran, and Shields may be Paul Byrd.
But this much should also be recognized: Moore and owner David Glass just made the kind of move I've been hammering them to make for quite some time.
Along with Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, the Royals' top four starting pitchers for 2013 have all been acquired in the last few months. Shields is due around $10 million and Davis $2.8 million, meaning Glass has OK'd the $80 million payroll that a lot of us have been screaming for.
The Royals are trying to win, in other words, and trying to do so now -- so in some ways it's a bit disingenuous to be complaining now that they're doing it.
The Royals still have a good farm system. Internally, they view Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer as better pitching prospects than Odorizzi. And as several scouts around the sport have observed in recent weeks, Myers and Odorizzi will have to make multiple All-Star Games to accumulate more trade value than they have right now.
So this trade is not the unmitigated disaster some are calling it.
The Rays are constantly trying to find a balance, writes Roger Mooney.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Indians signed Mark Reynolds. It's not entirely clear whether this takes them out on Kevin Youkilis, but it would seem to make it more likely Youkilis could land with the Yankees.
2. This could help the Yankees' chances, writes Ken Davidoff.
3. Skip Schumaker's days with the Cardinals seem to be over.
4. Michael Young gives the Phillies what they want.
5. Bill Center takes a look back at two Padres trades.
6. Dante Bichette wants the Rockies to swing sledgehammers.
7. With the trade of Young, there will be an undisputed leader of the Texas clubhouse, writes Evan Grant. Young's departure shouldn't be reason for the idiots' glee.
8. The Braves are glad they got their center fielder early.
Their No. 2 hitter was Elian Herrera, Bobby Abreu was their No. 3 hitter, and their best player at that time was probably A.J. Ellis. I remember thinking during that night how the Dodgers seemed to have more energy in their dugout than any team I had seen other than the San Francisco Giants, and of course, they all went crazy when Scott Van Slyke bashed a three-run pinch-hit homer.
But the Dodgers won't field a team anything like that any time soon; there may never be a day in our lifetimes when they will be viewed as gritty, gutty underachievers. In the seven months since the new Dodgers ownership has been in place, it has spent $650 million, or about the same as Frank McCourt spent over six seasons, from 2006-11.
Six hundred fifty million. In seven months. Including the $61 million spent on Hyun-Jin Ryu.
The Dodgers have 10 players on their roster who are set to make at least $11 million.
One of their new owners told one of the Dodgers' front office executives that his goal is to have an All-Star at every position, and they are close to making that happen. Their No. 1 starter, Clayton Kershaw, is among the three or four best pitchers on the planet, and their No. 2 starter, Zack Greinke, is the highest-paid right-handed pitcher ever.
A lineup like this looks really good on paper:
LF Carl Crawford
2B Mark Ellis
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Kemp
RF Andre Ethier
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B Luis Cruz
C Ellis
P Kershaw
But with the riches comes a very different type of pressure, and Mattingly has the experience to know this as well as anyone, having played his entire career with the New York Yankees, and for George Steinbrenner. The Dodgers have so many All-Stars and have spent so much money that joylessness could become a major opponent.
From the very first day of spring training, they will face more scrutiny than any other team in the majors. They will be expected to win, and any series of losses will be followed with "How come you guys stink?" questions. Anything short of a deep run into the postseason will be regarded as a failure, and if they win, their owners will get the bulk of the credit.
This dynamic will test their clubhouse, and it will be interesting to see how the Dodgers' leadership develops. Kershaw is a candidate for this, even at a young age, and I'd bet that Greinke will really like playing with him. Kemp has been a leader among the position players before all the additions; some folks in the clubhouse say the chemistry among the position players was still a work in progress as the 2012 season ended.
The Giants have won two of the last three World Series yet they will be regarded as underdogs because of the Dodgers' payroll escalation. "The funny thing," said a rival evaluator, "is that I think the Giants are still the better team."
That very well could be the case. The Dodgers, as currently constructed, could have a major defensive problem at shortstop with Ramirez. They look as if they could be vulnerable against left-handed pitching, and although they have again invested heavy dollars in their bullpen, there are questions about the quality of that group.
In May, there wasn't any pressure on the Dodgers. Their owner had slowly stripped down their payroll, and they had few resources to improve the team around Kershaw, Kemp and Ethier. Now they have all the resources and all the All-Stars, and that won't be as easy as it sounds -- but nobody will feel sorry for them, ever again.
Rays-Royals deal
I've written this here before and it's appropriate again today: If Rays GM Andrew Friedman did his work at Vegas blackjack tables rather than at St. Petersburg's Trop, he'd be the guy who always adhered to his point system. He wouldn't take another card while standing at 17, ever, and he'd be the last guy to ever say he had a gut feeling that the next card was going to work out. The Rays have stayed at the contenders' table for a remarkably long time -- we'll be going on six years in 2013 -- despite their inherent disadvantages, because Friedman has so skillfully managed the pile of chips.
So in trading James Shields, there was no chance that he would get less than exactly what he needed and wanted. He had excellent leverage, because the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks both wanted Shields, a pitcher whose contract in structured in such a way that makes him even more attractive as a trade target: In a series of team options, Shields is set to make $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014, limiting the risk for the team acquiring him.
Wil Myers could become the Rays' next Evan Longoria: You'll probably see him called up a handful of days into the 2013 season, after he misses enough days to have his free agency backed up to 2019 rather than 2018, and then he'll hit in the middle of the Tampa Bay lineup.
And the Rays could approach him with the same type of deal that they have dangled in front of all their best young players, built on the same philosophy that this Rays-Royals swap is built on: a guarantee up front of at least some payoff, and in return for that, the Rays position themselves to extract value over the long term.
The Royals are looking at it from a different perspective: They believe their window of opportunity is opening right now, with their talented young core of position players -- which could be the best in the American League if Eric Hosmer rebounds from his poor second season. Kansas City has a very underrated and dominant bullpen, as well.
Some Royals evaluators had told their peers at other teams early in the offseason that KC wasn't under pressure from ownership to contend in 2013, and that more development was needed -- a surprising evaluation, in the eyes of rival evaluators. "I don't think they're that far away, in that division," said one GM. "You get the right starting pitching and they could challenge [Detroit]."
Shields could be that guy. He finished third in Cy Young voting in 2011 and after a miserable first half in 2012, he had the majors' fifth-best ERA in the second half. He and Wade Davis lead a group that has Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, and if they get even a mediocre effort out of the rotation, that might be enough to push the Tigers. It'll be a very different-looking team if Hosmer improves.
Dayton Moore is going all-in for next season.
Friedman clearly got the better value in the deal, in the eyes of Keith Law. That's almost a given; when Friedman has the leverage, when he has the cards -- as he did in this situation -- he isn't going to make a bad trade. The Royals got what they want, too.
This trade is a reach for Moore, writes Sam Mellinger. From his column:
To be clear: I'm with what seems to be the industry consensus, that the Royals are reaching too far and too early and giving up too much.
Myers may be their best homegrown position player since Carlos Beltran, and Shields may be Paul Byrd.
But this much should also be recognized: Moore and owner David Glass just made the kind of move I've been hammering them to make for quite some time.
Along with Jeremy Guthrie and Ervin Santana, the Royals' top four starting pitchers for 2013 have all been acquired in the last few months. Shields is due around $10 million and Davis $2.8 million, meaning Glass has OK'd the $80 million payroll that a lot of us have been screaming for.
The Royals are trying to win, in other words, and trying to do so now -- so in some ways it's a bit disingenuous to be complaining now that they're doing it.
The Royals still have a good farm system. Internally, they view Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer as better pitching prospects than Odorizzi. And as several scouts around the sport have observed in recent weeks, Myers and Odorizzi will have to make multiple All-Star Games to accumulate more trade value than they have right now.
So this trade is not the unmitigated disaster some are calling it.
The Rays are constantly trying to find a balance, writes Roger Mooney.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Indians signed Mark Reynolds. It's not entirely clear whether this takes them out on Kevin Youkilis, but it would seem to make it more likely Youkilis could land with the Yankees.
2. This could help the Yankees' chances, writes Ken Davidoff.
3. Skip Schumaker's days with the Cardinals seem to be over.
4. Michael Young gives the Phillies what they want.
5. Bill Center takes a look back at two Padres trades.
6. Dante Bichette wants the Rockies to swing sledgehammers.
7. With the trade of Young, there will be an undisputed leader of the Texas clubhouse, writes Evan Grant. Young's departure shouldn't be reason for the idiots' glee.
8. The Braves are glad they got their center fielder early.
The best alternative to Greinke.
A bunch of starting pitchers have already left the market. Dan Haren is the latest, but before him, Hiroki Kuroda, Jeremy Guthrie, Hisashi Iwakuma, Scott Baker, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Jason Marquis and Andy Pettitte were all snapped up, and the Los Angeles Dodgers won the rights to negotiate with Ryu Hyun-jin.
Now, with Zack Greinke seemingly having narrowed his choices down to the Dodgers and Texas Rangers, the top pitcher on the market is also as good as gone. So who is the next-best option out there?
Looking at the remaining players on the market, there are eight who wouldn't make you immediately go into convulsions: Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Francisco Liriano, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Villanueva. If you squint, you could include guys like Joe Blanton and Chris Young, but we'll leave them out of this discussion.
Right away, we see that most of these guys have a warning light or two flashing. Dempster will be in his age-36 season in 2013, and he didn't take too kindly to the American League last season. Jackson doesn't have a real red flag, but he has been traded approximately 3,482 times, which is either good or bad depending on your perspective.
Lohse was presented with a qualifying offer, so whoever signs him is going to have to forfeit a draft pick. That may limit his suitors to the teams that have a protected first-round pick or perhaps a team picking at the end of the first round that was going to have a small draft budget anyway. There are also questions as to whether Lohse has been the product of his environment in St. Louis.
Liriano's role vacillated the past couple of seasons, and he has started 30 games in a season only once in his big league career. Marcum has a nasty habit of being above-average in the season's first two months and then a piñata afterward (see table). McCarthy was already viewed as injury-prone before taking a ball off the head in September that required surgery.
Rough finish
Shaun Marcum starts strong and finishes slow.
MONTH FIP
March/April 4.02
May 3.27
June 4.47
July 4.63
August 4.93
Sept./Oct. 4.42
During his career, Sanchez has dealt with elbow and shoulder problems, and while it hasn't affected him the past three years (his fastball velocity from 2010 to 2012 was actually higher than it was before his shoulder injury) it's definitely something in the back of team's minds. Finally, Villanueva has never been a starter for a full season -- last year's 16-start campaign counts as his career high -- and there are some who don't believe he is durable enough to consistently maintain a 30-start workload.
To get a good picture of what these guys are capable of, we want to look at their past three years. In this way, we won't overrate their most recent production. In doing so, we can highlight some of their flaws in comparison to the others. A few things jump out right away. The first is Villanueva's ground-ball rate. While most of the other pitchers on the list generate grounders more than 40 percent of the time, Villanueva has generated them only 35.8 percent of the time since 2010. Marcum also is under 40 percent, but he has walked batters far less frequently than has Villanueva.
As mentioned, another red flag is McCarthy's innings total. Over the past three seasons, McCarthy has tossed only 281 2/3 innings, which is more than 300 fewer than Dempster, Jackson and Sanchez. Speaking of Jackson, he combines not striking out a lot of hitters (his 19.5 percent K rate ranks sixth of eight in this group) with putting a lot of hitters on base (his 1.35 WHIP ranks seventh of eight). Jackson was better in both respects last season, but it is something on which to keep an eye (or even two).
Looking across the board, one pitcher comes out looking pretty rosy, and that is Sanchez. Of the myriad of statistics I looked at in this three-year comparison, the only one in which he doesn't come out as one of the better pitchers in is batting average on balls in play. And that isn't all that surprising, since the Miami Marlins -- his primary team during that period -- have had one of the worst defenses in the majors the past few years, and the Detroit Tigers' defense last season was straight-up abominable.
But in looking at the three most important markers -- strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate --Sanchez is the only pitcher who comes out in the top half of this group every time. He also comes out in the top half of the group in home runs per fly ball rate, ERA, FIP and the raft of "minus" stats that FanGraphs uses -- ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- -- which relate how pitchers did in those particular stats in comparison to the league average.
Finally, Sanchez has been the most consistent of the group. Over the past three years, he is the only pitcher who has been worth at least three wins above replacement in each season (though Dempster and Jackson come close). In fact, Sanchez has been worth at least 3.8 WAR in each of the past three seasons, which is close enough that we can say he's been a four-win player. No one else in this group can claim that. Of the other 21 seasons in this group, only two of them were worth more than four wins -- Liriano's 6.1 WAR in 2010 and McCarthy's 4.8 WAR in 2011. If you could bottle those seasons and crank them out every year, you'd be a happy camper, but there is a reason most of the talk around each pitcher has centered on one- to two-year contracts.
Most throughout the game scoffed when it was revealed a few weeks ago that Sanchez wanted between $90 and 100 million over six years for his next contract, but in a market where Shane Victorino is worth $13 million per year and Greinke is poised to land a deal north of $20 million a year, $16.6 million a year for Sanchez doesn't sound so outrageous. Like Jackson, Liriano, McCarthy and Villanueva, Sanchez will still be under 30 years old in 2013. And over the past three seasons, Sanchez has proved himself durable and consistently good. He's succeeded in the National League and the American League, and he's succeeded during the playoffs. And if that wasn't enough, Sanchez also won't cost his next team a draft pick the way Lohse will. Once Greinke signs, Sanchez not only will be the best option remaining on the market, but he'll also be the safest.
Now, with Zack Greinke seemingly having narrowed his choices down to the Dodgers and Texas Rangers, the top pitcher on the market is also as good as gone. So who is the next-best option out there?
Looking at the remaining players on the market, there are eight who wouldn't make you immediately go into convulsions: Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Francisco Liriano, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Villanueva. If you squint, you could include guys like Joe Blanton and Chris Young, but we'll leave them out of this discussion.
Right away, we see that most of these guys have a warning light or two flashing. Dempster will be in his age-36 season in 2013, and he didn't take too kindly to the American League last season. Jackson doesn't have a real red flag, but he has been traded approximately 3,482 times, which is either good or bad depending on your perspective.
Lohse was presented with a qualifying offer, so whoever signs him is going to have to forfeit a draft pick. That may limit his suitors to the teams that have a protected first-round pick or perhaps a team picking at the end of the first round that was going to have a small draft budget anyway. There are also questions as to whether Lohse has been the product of his environment in St. Louis.
Liriano's role vacillated the past couple of seasons, and he has started 30 games in a season only once in his big league career. Marcum has a nasty habit of being above-average in the season's first two months and then a piñata afterward (see table). McCarthy was already viewed as injury-prone before taking a ball off the head in September that required surgery.
Rough finish
Shaun Marcum starts strong and finishes slow.
MONTH FIP
March/April 4.02
May 3.27
June 4.47
July 4.63
August 4.93
Sept./Oct. 4.42
During his career, Sanchez has dealt with elbow and shoulder problems, and while it hasn't affected him the past three years (his fastball velocity from 2010 to 2012 was actually higher than it was before his shoulder injury) it's definitely something in the back of team's minds. Finally, Villanueva has never been a starter for a full season -- last year's 16-start campaign counts as his career high -- and there are some who don't believe he is durable enough to consistently maintain a 30-start workload.
To get a good picture of what these guys are capable of, we want to look at their past three years. In this way, we won't overrate their most recent production. In doing so, we can highlight some of their flaws in comparison to the others. A few things jump out right away. The first is Villanueva's ground-ball rate. While most of the other pitchers on the list generate grounders more than 40 percent of the time, Villanueva has generated them only 35.8 percent of the time since 2010. Marcum also is under 40 percent, but he has walked batters far less frequently than has Villanueva.
As mentioned, another red flag is McCarthy's innings total. Over the past three seasons, McCarthy has tossed only 281 2/3 innings, which is more than 300 fewer than Dempster, Jackson and Sanchez. Speaking of Jackson, he combines not striking out a lot of hitters (his 19.5 percent K rate ranks sixth of eight in this group) with putting a lot of hitters on base (his 1.35 WHIP ranks seventh of eight). Jackson was better in both respects last season, but it is something on which to keep an eye (or even two).
Looking across the board, one pitcher comes out looking pretty rosy, and that is Sanchez. Of the myriad of statistics I looked at in this three-year comparison, the only one in which he doesn't come out as one of the better pitchers in is batting average on balls in play. And that isn't all that surprising, since the Miami Marlins -- his primary team during that period -- have had one of the worst defenses in the majors the past few years, and the Detroit Tigers' defense last season was straight-up abominable.
But in looking at the three most important markers -- strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate --Sanchez is the only pitcher who comes out in the top half of this group every time. He also comes out in the top half of the group in home runs per fly ball rate, ERA, FIP and the raft of "minus" stats that FanGraphs uses -- ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- -- which relate how pitchers did in those particular stats in comparison to the league average.
Finally, Sanchez has been the most consistent of the group. Over the past three years, he is the only pitcher who has been worth at least three wins above replacement in each season (though Dempster and Jackson come close). In fact, Sanchez has been worth at least 3.8 WAR in each of the past three seasons, which is close enough that we can say he's been a four-win player. No one else in this group can claim that. Of the other 21 seasons in this group, only two of them were worth more than four wins -- Liriano's 6.1 WAR in 2010 and McCarthy's 4.8 WAR in 2011. If you could bottle those seasons and crank them out every year, you'd be a happy camper, but there is a reason most of the talk around each pitcher has centered on one- to two-year contracts.
Most throughout the game scoffed when it was revealed a few weeks ago that Sanchez wanted between $90 and 100 million over six years for his next contract, but in a market where Shane Victorino is worth $13 million per year and Greinke is poised to land a deal north of $20 million a year, $16.6 million a year for Sanchez doesn't sound so outrageous. Like Jackson, Liriano, McCarthy and Villanueva, Sanchez will still be under 30 years old in 2013. And over the past three seasons, Sanchez has proved himself durable and consistently good. He's succeeded in the National League and the American League, and he's succeeded during the playoffs. And if that wasn't enough, Sanchez also won't cost his next team a draft pick the way Lohse will. Once Greinke signs, Sanchez not only will be the best option remaining on the market, but he'll also be the safest.
D-backs gain flexibility with McCarthy.
Brandon McCarthy would likely have been in line for a three- or four-year deal, the kind we expect Kyle Lohse and Anibal Sanchez get (although we haven't seen any such deal handed out to a starter so far this winter), had it not been for the comebacker that ended his 2012 season. He signed a reported two-year, $15.5 million deal today with Arizona.
McCarthy is a groundball/control guy who misses just enough bats to be an above-average starter, and he works better when he's got a good infield defense behind him, something that was true through his two years in Oakland. The Diamondbacks don't have a good glove at third, but could have above-average defenders at the other three positions if they stick with Cliff Pennington at shortstop. McCarthy's ability to sink the ball had to be appealing to the Diamondbacks given their home park's habit of increasing home run rates, but he'll have to be able to keep the cutter and sinker down in the zone more than he did in 2012, especially before his midyear DL stint for shoulder soreness. He's likely to be worth 2-3 wins if he throws 160-170 innings this year.
The move leaves the Diamondbacks with a modest pitching surplus that they could use to make a trade. Their Opening Day rotation includes McCarthy, Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, and likely one of three youngsters, rookies Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer and sophomore Patrick Corbin. Bauer seems to have fallen out of favor in the organization and seems the most likely to be traded, although his stock just eighteen months after he was the third overall pick in the Rule 4 Draft is probably still pretty high. Corbin's stuff played up in his handful of relief appearances, so while he's the most experienced and could be a fifth starter, the ideal alignment of pitchers might have Skaggs in the rotation with Corbin as a long man, ready to move into the rotation if there's a need between Opening Day and the return of Daniel Hudson.
As for McCarthy, this has to be a happy outcome given the uncertainty at the end of September over whether he'd continue to pitch or even suffer permanent damage from his head injury. He's now guaranteed more than $15 million over the next two years, which speaks both to how good he was right up to the point when he was hit and to the rapid salary inflation in this offseason's free agent market. Lohse, Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson have to be pleased to see that a pitcher with McCarthy's risk factors can get $7.75 million guaranteed per year.
McCarthy is a groundball/control guy who misses just enough bats to be an above-average starter, and he works better when he's got a good infield defense behind him, something that was true through his two years in Oakland. The Diamondbacks don't have a good glove at third, but could have above-average defenders at the other three positions if they stick with Cliff Pennington at shortstop. McCarthy's ability to sink the ball had to be appealing to the Diamondbacks given their home park's habit of increasing home run rates, but he'll have to be able to keep the cutter and sinker down in the zone more than he did in 2012, especially before his midyear DL stint for shoulder soreness. He's likely to be worth 2-3 wins if he throws 160-170 innings this year.
The move leaves the Diamondbacks with a modest pitching surplus that they could use to make a trade. Their Opening Day rotation includes McCarthy, Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, and likely one of three youngsters, rookies Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer and sophomore Patrick Corbin. Bauer seems to have fallen out of favor in the organization and seems the most likely to be traded, although his stock just eighteen months after he was the third overall pick in the Rule 4 Draft is probably still pretty high. Corbin's stuff played up in his handful of relief appearances, so while he's the most experienced and could be a fifth starter, the ideal alignment of pitchers might have Skaggs in the rotation with Corbin as a long man, ready to move into the rotation if there's a need between Opening Day and the return of Daniel Hudson.
As for McCarthy, this has to be a happy outcome given the uncertainty at the end of September over whether he'd continue to pitch or even suffer permanent damage from his head injury. He's now guaranteed more than $15 million over the next two years, which speaks both to how good he was right up to the point when he was hit and to the rapid salary inflation in this offseason's free agent market. Lohse, Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson have to be pleased to see that a pitcher with McCarthy's risk factors can get $7.75 million guaranteed per year.
Rumors.
Yankees' odds on Youkilis
3:53PM ET
Kevin Youkilis | White Sox
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The chances of the New York Yankees landing Kevin Youkilis may have increased with word that the Cleveland Indians have agreed to a one-year contract with free agent slugger Mark Reynolds.
Reynolds, who was non-tendered by the Orioles following a season in which he hit 23 homers, would likely take over at first base for Cleveland, but he also could be used as the designated hitter.
So with one serious suitor down, the Yankees' odds on Youkilis may have improved, reports Anthony McCarron and Christian Red of the New York Daily News.
Joe Bick, Youkilis' agent, tells Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com his client is "seriously considering" an offer from the Yankees that is considered "very legitimate."
The buzz at the winter meetings had the Yankees offering Youkilis a one-year deal worth $12 million. The Indians reportedly offered the Ohio native a two-year, $18 million contract to rejoin his former Boston manager, new Tribe skipper Terry Francona.
The Yankees are in the market for a third baseman to replace Alex Rodriguez, who will miss the start of the season following hip surgery. The Mariners and Dodgers are among the teams that also have reportedly shown interest in Youkilis, so he still has some leverage.
- Doug Mittler
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Kevin Youkilis, New York Yankees
Morning line on Wainwright
3:30PM ET
Adam Wainwright | Cardinals
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Among those who should be taking close notes on Zack Greinke's six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers is Cardinals righthander Adam Wainwright, who hits the free agent market after next season.
Wainwright put his injury-plagued past behind him with a 14-13 record and a 3.94 ERA in 2012, coming within two frames of his fourth 200-inning season. MLB.com's Jenufer Langosch predicts Wainwright could command an average annual salary of at least $20 million, but it is highly unlikely the Cardinals would offer anything close to the six years the Dodgers gave Greinke.
As we saw this fall by their decision to pass on Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals will not overpay, even after a career year. While Wainwright, who owns a 3.15 career ERA, wants to return, Langosch says the pitcher is unlikely to give a substantial hometown discount.
- Doug Mittler
Odds of Upton deal less likely?
2:40PM ET
Justin Upton | Diamondbacks
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The ripple effect of the Royals-Rays blockbuster that sends James Shields to Kansas City was felt all the way out in the Arizona desert.
The Diamondbacks' Justin Upton was at the center of several rumors at the winter meetings that had the outfielder headed to the Texas Rangers as part of a three- or four-team deal.
Shields has been a top target for the D-backs for the past two seasons, but they balked at trading a host of prospects for him. With Shields off the board, it appears that the Rangers and D-backs may no longer have the additional partners to get involved in a blockbuster, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.
That could change if the Rangers, who obviously covet Upton, fail to re-sign Josh Hamilton. The D-backs have their sights on Texas shortstops Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, but Rangers GM Jon Daniels has refused to part with either. But if Hamilton lands outside of Arlington, the Rangers will have a more acute need for a power bat and could alter their thinking in order to land Upton.
- Doug Mittler
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Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Justin Upton, Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Reds still need leadoff man
2:16PM ET
Ryan Ludwick | Reds
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With the news that the Cincinnati Reds have re-signed outfielder Ryan Ludwick, a two-year, $15 million deal that was announced Monday, the club's biggest question left is what to do for a leadoff hitter.
The deal means the Reds outfield will look pretty much the same in 2013 as it did in 2012. That's both good and bad.
It's good because Ludwick and Jay Bruce were productive on the corners, but it's bad because the Reds might not have much left to try to solve their pesky leadoff hitter-slash-centerfielder problem.
While center is not a gaping hole -- veteran Drew Stubbs is a plus defender -- the team's lack of a top-of-the-lineup bat remains a major problem. As ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reminds us, the No. 1 spot in the order produced a look-away bad .208 batting average.
There had been some speculation that the Reds could go after Michael Bourn to fix both issues with one move, but that now appears unlikely.
One possible solution? Prospect Billy Hamilton, who may be the fastest man in baseball after setting the single-season stolen base record with 155 last season, is being transitioned from shortstop to centerfield. He reached Double-A in 2012, and he looks like he could be the long-term answer for Cincy -- perhaps arriving as soon as the second half of next year -- provided he takes to the new position and continues to improve his approach at the plate.
- Jason Catania
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Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati Reds, Michael Bourn, Drew Stubbs
Beimel ahead of schedule
2:03PM ET
Joe Beimel | Rangers
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Veteran lefthander Joe Beimel is coming off Tommy John surgery and is still searching for a job.
On the bright side, MLB.com's Evan Drellich reported over the weekend that Beimel's recovery is ahead of schedule and he should be fully ready for the start of spring training.
The 35-year-old Beimel, who lasted pitched in 2011 for the Pirates and has worked for six different clubs, underwent the surgery in May. Lefty relievers are always in demand, so he can expect at least a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
- Doug Mittler
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Joe Beimel
Available free agent starters
1:15PM ET
Free Agent Starters
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Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Zack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 million
Anibal Sanchez, RHP
Kyle Lohse, RHP
Edwin Jackson, RHP
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 million
Ryan Dempster, RHP
Brandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 million
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 million
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 million
Dan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 million
Francisco Liriano, LHP
Shaun Marcum, RHP
Roy Oswalt, RHP
Joe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
This year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.
Until the news on Greinke's agreement with the Dodgers broke late Saturday, it was clear that the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters one, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees).
Now that Greinke, who was not only the top arm in free agency but also in the middle of his prime, has set the top end of the pitching market, though, expect the likes of Sanchez, Lohse and Jackson to sign sooner than later.
The big x factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in Sunday's blockbuster. That takes the Royals out of the list of eligible suitors, but still leaves plenty of teams looking for pitching, including the Cubs, Brewers, Twins and Rangers.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
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Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Ryan Dempster, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Anibal Sanchez, Texas Rangers
Could the Yankees bid on Hamilton?
1:05PM ET
Josh Hamilton | Rangers
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One school of thought regarding Josh Hamilton says the Rangers could not pull off a Texas two-step and land both the former AL MVP and free agent Zack Greinke. We saw Greinke take his talents to Hollywood over the weekend, so maybe this is the time that the Rangers make a more aggressive play for Hamilton.
Getting a read on the Hamilton sweepstakes isn't easy. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, kept a cone of silence with the media at the winter meetings, a practice that may have done his clients no favors.
The Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers all have been linked to Hamilton at some point, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Friday that the New York Yankees have quietly ran a background check on Hamilton, suggesting they could have some interest after all.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted Sunday the Yankees are not pursuing Hamilton at this point, and would only get involved if the outfielder fell into their lap.
Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com has a different take:
- Doug Mittler
Andrew Marchand
Are the Yankees acting coy?
"As for Josh Hamilton, the Yankees cannot be ruled out. They could add Hamilton, while still reaching their goal of a $189 million payroll by 2014. In part of this potential equation, the Yankees could simply let Curtis Granderson leave after this season or deal him. Granderson is owed $15 million in 2013. If the Yankees were to trade Granderson and sign Hamilton, they would essentially be dealing Granderson for Hamilton and whatever players they received in a Granderson transaction. It actually makes a lot of sense, if the Yankees come to the conclusion Hamilton can handle New York. Yankees officials have acted lukewarm to the idea, but they might be acting coy."
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Atlanta's left field search
11:28AM ET
Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta Braves were unable to complete a deal for a left fielder at the winter meetings as some of the players they were interested in -- Shane Victorino, Denard Span and Ben Revere -- landed elsewhere.
If the season began today, David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says the Braves could go with Juan Francisco as a primary or platoon third baseman, and have Martin Prado split time between left field and third base instead of moving to third full-time. Another left field platoon option is Reed Johnson, who re-signed last week.
We mentioned last week the club might be willing to deal Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado, especially since their value declines if they spend another year in Triple-A. "If we're going to trade one of those guys it's going to be a significant deal," GM Frank Wren told O'Brien last week. "And I don't know if that's going to happen or not."
As for the trade route, the Braves reportedly have inquired about Arizona's Justin Upton, Colorado's Dexter Fowler, Cleveland's Shin-Soo Choo and Kansas City's Alex Gordon, among others.
- Doug Mittler
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Atlanta Braves, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado
Impact of McCarthy deal
11:03AM ET
Brandon McCarthy | Athletics
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Plenty of teams were interested in Brandon McCarthy, who landed a two-year, $15.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday.
There may be a gamble regarding McCarthy, who went 8-6 with a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts with the A's last season before being hit in the head with a line drive. But he remains a lower-cost alternative to other free agent starters such as Kyle Lohse and Anibal Sanchez, who are looking for a big payday.
Phil Rogers reports the Cubs offered McCarthy a two-year contract that would have allowed him to earn more than his deal with Arizona if he stayed healthy and pitched well, but it did not include as much guaranteed money.
ESPN Insider's Keith Law explains why the remaining free agents have to be pleased with McCarthy's deal:
- Doug Mittler
Keith Law
Lohse, Sanchez will get paid
"As for McCarthy, this has to be a happy outcome given the uncertainty at the end of September over whether he'd continue to pitch or even suffer permanent damage from his head injury. He's now guaranteed more than $15 million over the next two years, which speaks both to how good he was right up to the point when he was hit and to the rapid salary inflation in this offseason's free agent market. Lohse, Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson have to be pleased to see that a pitcher with McCarthy's risk factors can get $7.75 million guaranteed per year."
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Arizona Diamondbacks, Brandon McCarthy
Why A.J. hasn't signed
10:37AM ET
A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox
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Free agent A.J. Pierzynski would seem to be a viable short-term solution for teams looking for catching help, a list that includes the Yankees, Mets and Rays, among others.
The 35-year-old Pierzynski posted solid .278/.326/.501 numbers last season for the White Sox, earning a reasonable $6 million. One reason teams may be a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal is the catcher's sometimes abrasive personality, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
"I know it worked in Chicago," an AL GM tells Cafardo, "but if it doesn't work with a whole group of new pitchers and teammates, it could be disruptive."
At some point, however, Pierzynski's numbers will be difficult to ignore.
- Doug Mittler
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A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
A's passed on Anderson for Myers
9:43AM ET
Oakland Athletics
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The Kansas City Royals have been shopping Wil Myers for weeks (remember the Jon Lester talk?), aware they would have to part with the top outfield prospect in order to bring back a top-shelf starter in return. The Royals finally pulled the trigger on Sunday night, landing James Shields and Wade Davis from the Rays in a multi-player deal.
But what other teams were in on the discussions?
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports the Oakland Athletics turned down a straight up deal of Myers for lefthander Brett Anderson. That makes sense on Oakland's part since Anderson, who made a successful return from Tommy John surgery, is still a year away from arbitration and Myers is still a prospect, albeit a very good one.
- Doug Mittler
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Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees in hot pursuit of Ichiro
9:14AM ET
Ichiro Suzuki | Yankees
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The chances of Ichiro Suzuki returning to the Bronx seemed to fluctuate over the past few weeks. It was no secret that the 10-time All-Star, who enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence with the New York Yankees late last summer, was interested in returning, although the stalled pace of the talks may have prompted him to look elsewhere.
But with Christmas two weeks away, the Yankees are now showing strong interest in re-signing Ichiro. "They are all over him, That (a deal with Ichiro) will happen," a source tells Ken Rosenthal.
The 39-year-old Ichiro hit .322 -- and posted an impressive .794 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) -- in his 67 games with the Yankees, suggesting the 39-year-old outfielder isn't yet finished. Rosenthal says the return of Ichiro would not preclude the Yankees from re-signing free agent Raul Ibanez, another left-handed hitter who likely would get most of his at-bats as a DH.
- Doug Mittler
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Ichiro Suzuki, New York Yankees
Mets want more than Olt for Dickey
8:53AM ET
R.A. Dickey | Mets
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In the wake of Zack Greinke's six-year, $147 million dollar deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, R.A. Dickey looks like a bargain by comparison.
Dickey, the NL's Cy Young winner, is set to make just $5 million for 2013 -- or a little over what Greinke will make per month once his new contract becomes official -- so Anthony McCarron of the Daily News Sunday raised the question of whether the trade market for Dickey will see a bump now that we know the market value for baseball's elite starting pitchers.
An obvious suitor would be the Texas Rangers, who were believed to be a competitor in the Greinke sweepstakes. But the Mets continue to drive a hard bargain and have made it clear to the Rangers that if they want Dickey, it would need to part with more than just highly regarded third base prospect Mike Olt, reports Andy Martino of the Daily News. Olt would presumably move to left field in New York due to the presence of David Wright.
The Royals, of course, are out of the Dickey talks now that they have landed James Shields from the Rays in Sunday's blockbuster. The Blue Jays, who have a surplus of catching the Mets covet, could be a possibility.
Meanwhile, Martino reports there has been modest progress since the end of the winter meetings in talks between the Mets and Dickey's agent about a contract extension. Dickey has been asking for a two-year, $26 million contract extension, and might already have reduced his price.
- Doug Mittler
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R.A. Dickey, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Mike Olt
Twins, Liriano talks stall
8:24AM ET
Francisco Liriano | White Sox
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There was some buzz prior to the winter meetings that the Twins, who are in the market for starting pitching, have had conversations with Francisco Liriano's representatives about bringing the lefthander back to Minnesota.
La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune, however, tweeted over the weekend that those discussions have gone backwards.
The 29-year-old lefthander had one of his worst years in the majors last season, going 3-10 with a 5.31 ERA with the Twins before being dealt to the White Sox in July. It seems a little odd the Twins would be looking to bring back a pitcher who they essentially gave up on just four months ago, but desperate times require desperate measures. Minnesota did land one starter last week, acquiring Vance Worley from the Phillies for Ben Revere.
- Doug Mittler
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Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
Rolling the dice in KC
8:05AM ET
Kansas City Royals
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After years of asking their fans to be patient, the Kansas City Royals are pushing their chips into the center of the table for 2013.
As Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star puts it, the Royals pulled off arguably the biggest deal of Dayton Moore's six-year tenure as general manager, acquiring veteran right-handers James Shields and Wade Davis from Tampa Bay in a six-player deal that sent prized outfield prospect Wil Myers to the Rays.
For the Royals, this deal was all about overhauling a dreadful rotation, a process that began when they acquired right-hander Ervin Santana from the Los Angeles Angels and retained free-agent right-hander Jeremy Guthrie. In effect, the Royals have pushed up their timetable to compete in what they think is a winnable AL Central, perhaps sacrificing 2015 and beyond, when Myers is expected to be a major contributor.
This is a team that hasn't tasted the postseason since **** Howser was the manager, a drought Moore desperately wants to end. But Our Keith Law says Moore is taking a big gamble:
- Doug Mittler
Keith Law
Moore taking a gamble
"The net result for the Royals, assuming that the player to be named later is not significant, is that they probably added 3-4 wins for 2013 with this trade, and that's just not enough to get them into contention, or to justify giving up one of the top two pure hitting prospects (along with Oscar Taveras of the St. Louis Cardinals) in all of the minors. The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions. Unfortunately, as with former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and the Erik Bedard deal, trades made under those circumstances often come back around to be the cause of a change in leadership. This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end."
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Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, James Shields, Wade Davis
What's next for the Dodgers?
7:11AM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers
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It was a huge weekend for the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers, who appear to have acquired the No.2 and No. 3 starters in their rotation behind Clayton Kershaw.
The Dodgers came to terms Sunday with Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu shortly before a Sunday deadline. Ryu's deal is for six years and sources told ESPN it's worth $36 million with an out clause that kicks in after the fifth year if he has pitched 750 or more innings, says Mark Saxon.
The Dodgers also Kershaw as well as Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano serving as solid back-end of the rotation pieces. There are as many as seven veteran starting pitchers, depending on the health of Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly.
At this stage, Harang, Capuano and Lilly are obvious bargaining chips. Lilly has a $12 million deal for 2013 and has a no-trade clause, so a deal will not be easy. Harang is scheduled to make $7 million next season while Capuano has a $6 million deal for 2013. Both Harang and Capuano had ERAs under 4,00, so there is some market value.
Our Keith Law has more on LA's options:
- Doug Mittler
Keith Law
What's next in LA?
"The pair of signings gives the Dodgers a surplus in their rotation, even assuming Chad Billingsley bows to fate and has elbow surgery and that Ted Lilly isn't healthy, either. Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano aren't league-average pitchers but could be above replacement level for someone on what is for each a de facto one-year deal. The Dodgers don't have to worry about money, apparently, so they could agree to pay those pitchers' full salaries and get a prospect or a fringy big leaguer in return."
3:53PM ET
Kevin Youkilis | White Sox
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The chances of the New York Yankees landing Kevin Youkilis may have increased with word that the Cleveland Indians have agreed to a one-year contract with free agent slugger Mark Reynolds.
Reynolds, who was non-tendered by the Orioles following a season in which he hit 23 homers, would likely take over at first base for Cleveland, but he also could be used as the designated hitter.
So with one serious suitor down, the Yankees' odds on Youkilis may have improved, reports Anthony McCarron and Christian Red of the New York Daily News.
Joe Bick, Youkilis' agent, tells Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com his client is "seriously considering" an offer from the Yankees that is considered "very legitimate."
The buzz at the winter meetings had the Yankees offering Youkilis a one-year deal worth $12 million. The Indians reportedly offered the Ohio native a two-year, $18 million contract to rejoin his former Boston manager, new Tribe skipper Terry Francona.
The Yankees are in the market for a third baseman to replace Alex Rodriguez, who will miss the start of the season following hip surgery. The Mariners and Dodgers are among the teams that also have reportedly shown interest in Youkilis, so he still has some leverage.
- Doug Mittler
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Kevin Youkilis, New York Yankees
Morning line on Wainwright
3:30PM ET
Adam Wainwright | Cardinals
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Among those who should be taking close notes on Zack Greinke's six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers is Cardinals righthander Adam Wainwright, who hits the free agent market after next season.
Wainwright put his injury-plagued past behind him with a 14-13 record and a 3.94 ERA in 2012, coming within two frames of his fourth 200-inning season. MLB.com's Jenufer Langosch predicts Wainwright could command an average annual salary of at least $20 million, but it is highly unlikely the Cardinals would offer anything close to the six years the Dodgers gave Greinke.
As we saw this fall by their decision to pass on Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals will not overpay, even after a career year. While Wainwright, who owns a 3.15 career ERA, wants to return, Langosch says the pitcher is unlikely to give a substantial hometown discount.
- Doug Mittler
Odds of Upton deal less likely?
2:40PM ET
Justin Upton | Diamondbacks
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The ripple effect of the Royals-Rays blockbuster that sends James Shields to Kansas City was felt all the way out in the Arizona desert.
The Diamondbacks' Justin Upton was at the center of several rumors at the winter meetings that had the outfielder headed to the Texas Rangers as part of a three- or four-team deal.
Shields has been a top target for the D-backs for the past two seasons, but they balked at trading a host of prospects for him. With Shields off the board, it appears that the Rangers and D-backs may no longer have the additional partners to get involved in a blockbuster, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.
That could change if the Rangers, who obviously covet Upton, fail to re-sign Josh Hamilton. The D-backs have their sights on Texas shortstops Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, but Rangers GM Jon Daniels has refused to part with either. But if Hamilton lands outside of Arlington, the Rangers will have a more acute need for a power bat and could alter their thinking in order to land Upton.
- Doug Mittler
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Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Justin Upton, Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks
Reds still need leadoff man
2:16PM ET
Ryan Ludwick | Reds
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With the news that the Cincinnati Reds have re-signed outfielder Ryan Ludwick, a two-year, $15 million deal that was announced Monday, the club's biggest question left is what to do for a leadoff hitter.
The deal means the Reds outfield will look pretty much the same in 2013 as it did in 2012. That's both good and bad.
It's good because Ludwick and Jay Bruce were productive on the corners, but it's bad because the Reds might not have much left to try to solve their pesky leadoff hitter-slash-centerfielder problem.
While center is not a gaping hole -- veteran Drew Stubbs is a plus defender -- the team's lack of a top-of-the-lineup bat remains a major problem. As ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reminds us, the No. 1 spot in the order produced a look-away bad .208 batting average.
There had been some speculation that the Reds could go after Michael Bourn to fix both issues with one move, but that now appears unlikely.
One possible solution? Prospect Billy Hamilton, who may be the fastest man in baseball after setting the single-season stolen base record with 155 last season, is being transitioned from shortstop to centerfield. He reached Double-A in 2012, and he looks like he could be the long-term answer for Cincy -- perhaps arriving as soon as the second half of next year -- provided he takes to the new position and continues to improve his approach at the plate.
- Jason Catania
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Ryan Ludwick, Cincinnati Reds, Michael Bourn, Drew Stubbs
Beimel ahead of schedule
2:03PM ET
Joe Beimel | Rangers
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Veteran lefthander Joe Beimel is coming off Tommy John surgery and is still searching for a job.
On the bright side, MLB.com's Evan Drellich reported over the weekend that Beimel's recovery is ahead of schedule and he should be fully ready for the start of spring training.
The 35-year-old Beimel, who lasted pitched in 2011 for the Pirates and has worked for six different clubs, underwent the surgery in May. Lefty relievers are always in demand, so he can expect at least a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
- Doug Mittler
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Joe Beimel
Available free agent starters
1:15PM ET
Free Agent Starters
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Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Zack Greinke, RHP | Dodgers: six years, $147 million
Anibal Sanchez, RHP
Kyle Lohse, RHP
Edwin Jackson, RHP
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP | Royals: three years, $25 million
Ryan Dempster, RHP
Brandon McCarthy, RHP | D-backs: two years, $15.5 million
Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP | Mariners: two years, $15 million
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP | Yankees: one year, $15 million
Dan Haren, RHP | Nationals: one year, $13 million
Francisco Liriano, LHP
Shaun Marcum, RHP
Roy Oswalt, RHP
Joe Saunders, LHP
Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
This year's crop of free agent starters doesn't have much in the way of high-end arms, aside from Zack Greinke, who's officially a Dodger, but it's rather deep with second- and third-tier possibilities for the middles and back-ends of rotations.
Until the news on Greinke's agreement with the Dodgers broke late Saturday, it was clear that the pitchers market had been moving more slowly than the hitters one, as no starter had signed for more than three years or for more than $15 million per season (which is what Kuroda got for another year with the Yankees).
Now that Greinke, who was not only the top arm in free agency but also in the middle of his prime, has set the top end of the pitching market, though, expect the likes of Sanchez, Lohse and Jackson to sign sooner than later.
The big x factor in this market was the Rays, who shook things up by trading James Shields to Kansas City in Sunday's blockbuster. That takes the Royals out of the list of eligible suitors, but still leaves plenty of teams looking for pitching, including the Cubs, Brewers, Twins and Rangers.
- Doug Mittler and Jason A. Churchill
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Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Ryan Dempster, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Anibal Sanchez, Texas Rangers
Could the Yankees bid on Hamilton?
1:05PM ET
Josh Hamilton | Rangers
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One school of thought regarding Josh Hamilton says the Rangers could not pull off a Texas two-step and land both the former AL MVP and free agent Zack Greinke. We saw Greinke take his talents to Hollywood over the weekend, so maybe this is the time that the Rangers make a more aggressive play for Hamilton.
Getting a read on the Hamilton sweepstakes isn't easy. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, kept a cone of silence with the media at the winter meetings, a practice that may have done his clients no favors.
The Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers all have been linked to Hamilton at some point, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Friday that the New York Yankees have quietly ran a background check on Hamilton, suggesting they could have some interest after all.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted Sunday the Yankees are not pursuing Hamilton at this point, and would only get involved if the outfielder fell into their lap.
Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com has a different take:
- Doug Mittler
Andrew Marchand
Are the Yankees acting coy?
"As for Josh Hamilton, the Yankees cannot be ruled out. They could add Hamilton, while still reaching their goal of a $189 million payroll by 2014. In part of this potential equation, the Yankees could simply let Curtis Granderson leave after this season or deal him. Granderson is owed $15 million in 2013. If the Yankees were to trade Granderson and sign Hamilton, they would essentially be dealing Granderson for Hamilton and whatever players they received in a Granderson transaction. It actually makes a lot of sense, if the Yankees come to the conclusion Hamilton can handle New York. Yankees officials have acted lukewarm to the idea, but they might be acting coy."
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Texas Rangers, Josh Hamilton, New York Yankees
Atlanta's left field search
11:28AM ET
Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta Braves were unable to complete a deal for a left fielder at the winter meetings as some of the players they were interested in -- Shane Victorino, Denard Span and Ben Revere -- landed elsewhere.
If the season began today, David O'Brien of the Atlanta JC says the Braves could go with Juan Francisco as a primary or platoon third baseman, and have Martin Prado split time between left field and third base instead of moving to third full-time. Another left field platoon option is Reed Johnson, who re-signed last week.
We mentioned last week the club might be willing to deal Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado, especially since their value declines if they spend another year in Triple-A. "If we're going to trade one of those guys it's going to be a significant deal," GM Frank Wren told O'Brien last week. "And I don't know if that's going to happen or not."
As for the trade route, the Braves reportedly have inquired about Arizona's Justin Upton, Colorado's Dexter Fowler, Cleveland's Shin-Soo Choo and Kansas City's Alex Gordon, among others.
- Doug Mittler
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Atlanta Braves, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado
Impact of McCarthy deal
11:03AM ET
Brandon McCarthy | Athletics
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Plenty of teams were interested in Brandon McCarthy, who landed a two-year, $15.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday.
There may be a gamble regarding McCarthy, who went 8-6 with a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts with the A's last season before being hit in the head with a line drive. But he remains a lower-cost alternative to other free agent starters such as Kyle Lohse and Anibal Sanchez, who are looking for a big payday.
Phil Rogers reports the Cubs offered McCarthy a two-year contract that would have allowed him to earn more than his deal with Arizona if he stayed healthy and pitched well, but it did not include as much guaranteed money.
ESPN Insider's Keith Law explains why the remaining free agents have to be pleased with McCarthy's deal:
- Doug Mittler
Keith Law
Lohse, Sanchez will get paid
"As for McCarthy, this has to be a happy outcome given the uncertainty at the end of September over whether he'd continue to pitch or even suffer permanent damage from his head injury. He's now guaranteed more than $15 million over the next two years, which speaks both to how good he was right up to the point when he was hit and to the rapid salary inflation in this offseason's free agent market. Lohse, Sanchez, and Edwin Jackson have to be pleased to see that a pitcher with McCarthy's risk factors can get $7.75 million guaranteed per year."
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Arizona Diamondbacks, Brandon McCarthy
Why A.J. hasn't signed
10:37AM ET
A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox
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Free agent A.J. Pierzynski would seem to be a viable short-term solution for teams looking for catching help, a list that includes the Yankees, Mets and Rays, among others.
The 35-year-old Pierzynski posted solid .278/.326/.501 numbers last season for the White Sox, earning a reasonable $6 million. One reason teams may be a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal is the catcher's sometimes abrasive personality, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
"I know it worked in Chicago," an AL GM tells Cafardo, "but if it doesn't work with a whole group of new pitchers and teammates, it could be disruptive."
At some point, however, Pierzynski's numbers will be difficult to ignore.
- Doug Mittler
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A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox
A's passed on Anderson for Myers
9:43AM ET
Oakland Athletics
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The Kansas City Royals have been shopping Wil Myers for weeks (remember the Jon Lester talk?), aware they would have to part with the top outfield prospect in order to bring back a top-shelf starter in return. The Royals finally pulled the trigger on Sunday night, landing James Shields and Wade Davis from the Rays in a multi-player deal.
But what other teams were in on the discussions?
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports the Oakland Athletics turned down a straight up deal of Myers for lefthander Brett Anderson. That makes sense on Oakland's part since Anderson, who made a successful return from Tommy John surgery, is still a year away from arbitration and Myers is still a prospect, albeit a very good one.
- Doug Mittler
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Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees in hot pursuit of Ichiro
9:14AM ET
Ichiro Suzuki | Yankees
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The chances of Ichiro Suzuki returning to the Bronx seemed to fluctuate over the past few weeks. It was no secret that the 10-time All-Star, who enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence with the New York Yankees late last summer, was interested in returning, although the stalled pace of the talks may have prompted him to look elsewhere.
But with Christmas two weeks away, the Yankees are now showing strong interest in re-signing Ichiro. "They are all over him, That (a deal with Ichiro) will happen," a source tells Ken Rosenthal.
The 39-year-old Ichiro hit .322 -- and posted an impressive .794 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) -- in his 67 games with the Yankees, suggesting the 39-year-old outfielder isn't yet finished. Rosenthal says the return of Ichiro would not preclude the Yankees from re-signing free agent Raul Ibanez, another left-handed hitter who likely would get most of his at-bats as a DH.
- Doug Mittler
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Ichiro Suzuki, New York Yankees
Mets want more than Olt for Dickey
8:53AM ET
R.A. Dickey | Mets
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In the wake of Zack Greinke's six-year, $147 million dollar deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, R.A. Dickey looks like a bargain by comparison.
Dickey, the NL's Cy Young winner, is set to make just $5 million for 2013 -- or a little over what Greinke will make per month once his new contract becomes official -- so Anthony McCarron of the Daily News Sunday raised the question of whether the trade market for Dickey will see a bump now that we know the market value for baseball's elite starting pitchers.
An obvious suitor would be the Texas Rangers, who were believed to be a competitor in the Greinke sweepstakes. But the Mets continue to drive a hard bargain and have made it clear to the Rangers that if they want Dickey, it would need to part with more than just highly regarded third base prospect Mike Olt, reports Andy Martino of the Daily News. Olt would presumably move to left field in New York due to the presence of David Wright.
The Royals, of course, are out of the Dickey talks now that they have landed James Shields from the Rays in Sunday's blockbuster. The Blue Jays, who have a surplus of catching the Mets covet, could be a possibility.
Meanwhile, Martino reports there has been modest progress since the end of the winter meetings in talks between the Mets and Dickey's agent about a contract extension. Dickey has been asking for a two-year, $26 million contract extension, and might already have reduced his price.
- Doug Mittler
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R.A. Dickey, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Mike Olt
Twins, Liriano talks stall
8:24AM ET
Francisco Liriano | White Sox
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There was some buzz prior to the winter meetings that the Twins, who are in the market for starting pitching, have had conversations with Francisco Liriano's representatives about bringing the lefthander back to Minnesota.
La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune, however, tweeted over the weekend that those discussions have gone backwards.
The 29-year-old lefthander had one of his worst years in the majors last season, going 3-10 with a 5.31 ERA with the Twins before being dealt to the White Sox in July. It seems a little odd the Twins would be looking to bring back a pitcher who they essentially gave up on just four months ago, but desperate times require desperate measures. Minnesota did land one starter last week, acquiring Vance Worley from the Phillies for Ben Revere.
- Doug Mittler
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Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
Rolling the dice in KC
8:05AM ET
Kansas City Royals
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After years of asking their fans to be patient, the Kansas City Royals are pushing their chips into the center of the table for 2013.
As Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star puts it, the Royals pulled off arguably the biggest deal of Dayton Moore's six-year tenure as general manager, acquiring veteran right-handers James Shields and Wade Davis from Tampa Bay in a six-player deal that sent prized outfield prospect Wil Myers to the Rays.
For the Royals, this deal was all about overhauling a dreadful rotation, a process that began when they acquired right-hander Ervin Santana from the Los Angeles Angels and retained free-agent right-hander Jeremy Guthrie. In effect, the Royals have pushed up their timetable to compete in what they think is a winnable AL Central, perhaps sacrificing 2015 and beyond, when Myers is expected to be a major contributor.
This is a team that hasn't tasted the postseason since **** Howser was the manager, a drought Moore desperately wants to end. But Our Keith Law says Moore is taking a big gamble:
- Doug Mittler
Keith Law
Moore taking a gamble
"The net result for the Royals, assuming that the player to be named later is not significant, is that they probably added 3-4 wins for 2013 with this trade, and that's just not enough to get them into contention, or to justify giving up one of the top two pure hitting prospects (along with Oscar Taveras of the St. Louis Cardinals) in all of the minors. The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions. Unfortunately, as with former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and the Erik Bedard deal, trades made under those circumstances often come back around to be the cause of a change in leadership. This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end."
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Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, James Shields, Wade Davis
What's next for the Dodgers?
7:11AM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers
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It was a huge weekend for the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers, who appear to have acquired the No.2 and No. 3 starters in their rotation behind Clayton Kershaw.
The Dodgers came to terms Sunday with Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu shortly before a Sunday deadline. Ryu's deal is for six years and sources told ESPN it's worth $36 million with an out clause that kicks in after the fifth year if he has pitched 750 or more innings, says Mark Saxon.
The Dodgers also Kershaw as well as Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano serving as solid back-end of the rotation pieces. There are as many as seven veteran starting pitchers, depending on the health of Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly.
At this stage, Harang, Capuano and Lilly are obvious bargaining chips. Lilly has a $12 million deal for 2013 and has a no-trade clause, so a deal will not be easy. Harang is scheduled to make $7 million next season while Capuano has a $6 million deal for 2013. Both Harang and Capuano had ERAs under 4,00, so there is some market value.
Our Keith Law has more on LA's options:
- Doug Mittler
Keith Law
What's next in LA?
"The pair of signings gives the Dodgers a surplus in their rotation, even assuming Chad Billingsley bows to fate and has elbow surgery and that Ted Lilly isn't healthy, either. Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano aren't league-average pitchers but could be above replacement level for someone on what is for each a de facto one-year deal. The Dodgers don't have to worry about money, apparently, so they could agree to pay those pitchers' full salaries and get a prospect or a fringy big leaguer in return."
- Status