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A path to change for the Red Sox.
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- The signs of change in Red Sox camp started on the sidewalk -- damp from Thursday morning showers -- which leads from the players' parking lot to the clubhouse. Somebody who didn't look like John Lackey strolled down that path and then you realized: Wow, that's John Lackey.


He looks so thin, from his offseason regimen, that he could be a body double for Jered Weaver. He looks so thin that Dustin Pedroia, as impolitic and blunt as ever, jokingly asked him if he had contracted a life-threatening disease in the offseason.



But there was more change, when Shane Victorino walked in, filling the room with energy; and one of the guys housed next to Victorino's locker is Jonny Gomes.



Pieces of the greatest change, however, could be seen on the apron of the indoor batting cages, where the Red Sox worked out. Manager John Farrell moved back and forth, breezily talking with his coaches, with players, with front-office personnel. Some of the folks in the organization noted that shift immediately the other day, when Farrell interacted with general manager Ben Cherington. There was a comfort level and a trust that simply was never there last spring, when Bobby Valentine was in the room and Cherington was in his first year on the job with a manager who probably wasn't his first choice.



Pedroia and others have been careful to say, without equivocation, that Boston's shocking 69-win season wasn't Valentine's fault, and that the players are responsible for the pitching and the hitting and the fielding, and in the end, for the victories and defeats. But no matter how they got there, you cannot overstate how dysfunctional the Red Sox were last year -- just as now, you cannot overstate how excited they are to get back to doing what they love to do.



Nobody should overreact to bullpen sessions -- heck, some general managers find them so worthless that they don't even bother watching -- but the word is Lackey is driving the ball down in the strike zone in a way that he hadn't in recent seasons. He feels the difference in his arm, with the extension.



Jon Lester has a good competitive chip on his shoulder, and it shows, some of the Red Sox say. Andrew Bailey is said to be throwing really well here, and the same can be said for Daniel Bard, who has lowered his arm angle slightly, to get back to where he was in 2011.



David Ross caught Junichi Tazawa, who was maybe the best thing that emerged from the wreckage of 2012, and came away in awe of his splitter, thinking that perhaps it is of the same quality thrown by Kevin Brown and Tim Hudson, the two best he has ever caught.



The Red Sox staffers have talked in their conversations about how, in a more stable environment, the team could have a wipeout bullpen, with Tazawa, Bailey and Bard working from the right side in front of closer Joel Hanrahan, and Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales and Craig Breslow working from the left side. Much more production is needed from the rotation, of course, which ranked 27th in ERA last season at 5.19.



But if there is change, it will all start on that sidewalk leading to the spring training clubhouse, because the Red Sox players seem much more enthused about going to work, and their workplace.



Elsewhere

• John Lackey looks to rebound, writes Tim Britton.

• Larry Lucchino labeled the Red Sox as scrappy underdogs, but that doesn't fly, writes Steve Buckley. The Red Sox foresee an end to the sellout streak.

• WARNING: WHAT FOLLOWS IS COMPLETE SPECULATION: Chipper Jones is returning to the Braves' camp today. You can take this and book it: If the Braves' third basemen, Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson, struggle in the first half of the season, there will be a conversation about whether Chipper might come back. Chipper said last year that he had learned that he can't play every day any more, but there were stretches of last season when he was the Braves' best hitter; last year, he was still a really good hitter, posting a .377 on-base percentage.


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Kevin Liles/US Presswire
So, you sure about that?
Francisco had a nice run in winter ball, but he came into camp probably a little heavier than the Braves would've liked, and Johnson can hit for power but can get into stretches, scouts say, when he makes mistakes.

The fact that he's coming back so early in spring training, and is scheduled to be around for a few days, will probably only whet Jones' appetite. Remember how that worked with Andy Pettitte last year? He came into the Yankees' camp, threw some batting practice and immediately started talking about a comeback.

Chipper insisted last year that he was absolutely ready to move on, and maybe he's still in that frame of mind. If Johnson and Francisco put up big numbers, there really won't be a reason for anyone to wonder if Jones might come back.

But if third base becomes a black hole of production, Chipper might welcome the opportunity to talk, in June, about another half-season and a run at another championship.

We'll see.

• The Cubs want more night games.

• Mike Matheny and John Mozeliak got contract extensions, and Matheny wants to get better.


Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Pirates signed Brandon Inge.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury referred questions about his future to his agent. So, he'll hit the market.

3. Ron Roenicke is pleased that Norichika Aoki is skipping the WBC.

4. The Rockies traded for Reid Brignac.


Dings and dents

1. Grant Balfour had knee surgery. Oakland fully expects him to be ready at the start of the season.

2. It's so far, so good for John Danks, after his first mound session.

3. J.A. Happ is back up to speed after breaking his foot.


The fight for jobs

1. Domonic Brown is getting another shot, writes Bob Brookover.

2. Jason Grilli is ready to step into the Pirates' closer job.

3. David Phelps and Ivan Nova are fighting for a spot, as Pete Caldera writes. I'd bet that Phelps is going to play a really important role on this staff.

4. Logan Schafer is in a good spot to win a job, writes Tom Haudricourt.

5. Jim Leyland say he's broken-hearted that Jose Valverde doesn't have a job.

6. Leyland wants to see his options at closer.

7. Julio Borbon has one last chance with the Rangers, writes Jeff Wilson.


NL West

• Carlos Quentin is getting back in the swing, writes Bill Center.

• One of the Giants likes karaoke.

• Carl Crawford had a tough run in Boston.

• Willie Bloomquist is back in the game.

• Walt Weiss is sure to put his stamp on the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.


NL Central

• A.J. Burnett is hoping for an encore performance, writes Rob Biertempfel.

• The Cubs are excited about their new complex, writes Paul Sullivan.

• Billy Hamilton will be one of the most watched players in the Reds' camp.


NL East

• Drew Storen wants the ball after his failure in Game 5 last year, writes Adam Kilgore.

• The Nationals are on a mission, writes Thomas Boswell.

• Ryan Howard says the window is still open for the Phillies, as Jim Salisbury writes.

• Travis D'Arnaud is getting ready for what figures to be his first season in the big leagues.

• Chris Coghlan doesn't want to be known as a flameout, writes Clark Spencer.

• Giancarlo Stanton could have his resolve tested.

• Hank Aaron hated to lose Martin Prado.


AL West

• As manager Bo Porter looks for change, the Astros have a winning handshake.

• The Mariners have added a guy with a sinker and a history of pets.

• Joe Nathan is going to save bullets for the season, writes Evan Grant.

• The key to the Angels' lineup might be who bats second, writes Mike DiGiovanna.

• Albert Pujols is not rushing in his return from knee surgery.


AL Central

• Mike Pelfrey is excited to get back out on the mound.

• Jason Giambi got rave reviews from Terry Francona.

• Torii Hunter is fitting right in.

• Eric Hosmer is hoping that a quieter approach at the plate helps.


AL East

• Mark Hendrickson hopes to rejuvenate his career.

• Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are preparing for a crucial season in their respective careers, as Tyler Kepner writes. The Yankees are keeping a close eye on Michael Pineda, writes Joel Sherman. He weighs 20 pounds less than when he reported last year.

• R.A. Dickey doesn't want to feel entitled, writes Ken Fidlin.

• Wil Myers impressed folks with his first batting practice session. From Marc Topkin's story:



"It's impressive," hitting coach Derek Shelton said. "And I think the thing that's the most impressive is the bat speed ... and the way the ball comes off his bat. You can see it not only when he's hitting on the field, but even off a tee. You don't see very many people that generate that much bat speed. First day, it's exciting to see."



Also, apparently, to hear.



"It's a different sound," Shelton said. "It's loud. You don't hear many guys that can create that sound, and he's definitely creating it."



Shelton watched from behind the cage, where a half-dozen top Rays officials just happened to flock from different sides of the training complex as the 6-foot-3, 190-pound 22-year-old -- so excited he didn't sleep much Wednesday -- grabbed his 34-inch MaxBat and showed off.



"I had some nerves when I first stepped in," Myers said. "But I think it went well."
 
I know this isnt a new report, but I just read that Don Mattingly says that Brandon League will be the Dodgers closer this season and not Kenley Janson?!? WTF?!? As a Giants fan, I am absolutely thrilled with this decision. Brandon League is trash and Janson looks unhittable most of the time.

Can any Dodger fans weigh in on this? I am curious to know what your thoughts are.
 
Breakout pitchers for 2013.
Was it something Kenley Jansen said? How else do you explain how he was used in 2011?



While Don Mattingly fed other Dodgers relievers more critical innings, Jansen became one of baseball's most dominant relievers. The rookie's 44 percent strikeout rate in 53 2/3 innings led all qualified relievers -- yup, even Mr. Kimbrel.



FanGraphs attempts to measure the pressure, or "leverage," of situations with a stat called leverage index (considers inning, outs, score, runners on base), and Jansen ranked 103rd in 2011. Essentially, in situations that needed any reliever, Jansen pitched. In critical spots that demanded an elite one, Jansen was buried in the Dodger Stadium bullpen hedges.



Because of this, Jansen "broke out" in 2012. He earned a higher-profile bullpen job in his second season and dominated, striking out 39 percent of batters and walking 9 percent in 65 innings with a 2.35 ERA. He threw 94 percent fastballs, which touched the mid-90s and averaged 92 mph. Of course, Jansen's velocity is deceiving. A natural cut makes his 92 more difficult to handle.

So Jansen was a dominant reliever who relied almost exclusively on a cut fastball. Sound familiar? Jansen isn't Mariano Rivera -- there's only one -- but Rivera has topped the 30 percent strikeout rate only once in his career. Just sayin'.



With the opinions of MLB officials mixed in, here are five pitchers who could pull a Jansen and break out in their second seasons in 2013.



Moore's sneaky good year




After Matt Moore did this in the 2011 playoffs, nobody could resist projecting. But if Moore's 2012 rookie season displeased you, well, that's on you. Look past the 11-11 record, which means almost nothing, and 3.81 ERA, which is very solid considering age and league.



"To handle that workload as a rookie was impressive, and you could see him figuring things out," one MLB official said.



Sure, Moore had issues. At times, the southpaw wasn't on speaking terms with the strike zone, his 10.7 percent walk rate ranking 107th among qualified starters. Arm-side fastballs could sail like a cheap paper plane. But he did impressive little things. He spun breaking balls for strikes at a league-average clip. He turned his changeup into a weapon against righties, throwing it for 67 percent strikes in fastball counts. He threw 60 percent first-pitch strikes. And Moore threw fastballs by guys at a better rate than all other starters (24 percent).



"He's a typical power guy whose stuff is so good, but he needs to learn to pitch," an AL evaluator said.



Hey, it seems like 2012 was a big step in that direction. No reason 2013 shouldn't be even better.



Harvey's unlikely opponent




Funny thing happened to Matt Harvey at Triple-A Buffalo: Every team he faced had a No. 3 hitter named "Boredom."



Only Harvey knows if he was staring at his Tag Heuer, counting down until his promotion, but evaluators continually use that to explain how he looked like a mid-rotation starter in Triple-A and a potential ace in New York. In July, the Mets had holes and couldn't wait any longer.



"One of the issues was his command," Mets GM Sandy Alderson said. "But we had a need and the stuff was so good we weren't concerned."



Boredom didn't get promoted with Harvey. He struck out 29 percent of batters in 59 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA, flashing upper-90s velocity with a plus slider.



With power pitchers such as Harvey, a delicate line separates "too predictable" from "too cute." With a fastball that good, Harvey should use it often and does. But there needs to be a mix. "Not throwing a fastball on every 0-0, 0-1 count will be important," the AL evaluator said.



In the first two pitches of at-bats last season, the righty went heater 66 percent of the time, a top-15 rate in baseball. This isn't a problem, per se. But eventually hitters will cheat and Harvey's command will be imperative. Breaking off a slider or curve to righties and turning over a change to lefties early in the count will help keep hitters off Harvey's fastball.



Parker emerges by the Bay




When the Diamondbacks took Jarrod Parker No. 9 overall in the 2007 draft, this is what they envisioned. A 3.8-WAR rookie season, a 3.47 ERA in 181 1/3 innings. But Oakland offered Trevor Cahill before the 2012 season, and Arizona shipped Parker to the Bay Area as part of a multiplayer deal.



After undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in late 2009, Parker has emerged as a power-sinker guy capable of leading Oakland's rotation.



"The strikeouts weren't where they were in the minors, and the ground balls weren't the same, but the adjustment takes time," the MLB official said. "He's certainly showing he can make it."



Parker couldn't touch Cahill's MLB-leading 63 percent ground ball rate, but his 44 percent wasn't bad. Parker challenges both sides of the plate with his fastball early in counts, and the run he gets on his two-seamer makes it very difficult to distinguish from his changeup out of the hand. This can be death on lefties, but even right-handed hitters can't eliminate the change in certain counts.



With two strikes against lefties, Parker will sneak a fastball inside, run one off the plate away or get the hitter to wave at a change. Righties could normally expect a slider away or fastball in, but Parker is equally likely to throw a right-on-right change. Not only that, more than half of them will be inside, fooling hitters into thinking it's gas. If you can do that, you're a bad dude.



Miley's stealth act of dominance




Did you forget an Arizona pitcher finished seven points behind Bryce Harper for the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2012? With Trevor Bauer's aptitude and Kirk Gibson's grit dominating conversations this winter, it was easy to forget about Wade Miley. But the lefty deserves attention, because he was really good.



Miley posted a 3.15 FIP and 4.3 percent walk rate, fourth among qualified starters, in 194 2/3 innings. Miley lives on fastball movement and command of his changeup and slider, but he thrives because he's also playing with angles on the mound. He stands on the third-base side of the rubber and lands outside the first-base side -- significantly across his body.



Imagine you're a right-handed hitter. You have this gangly thing throwing seemingly out of right field, and 49 percent of fastballs you see will start away and keep tailing, making them difficult square up. The 28 percent fastballs inside look like they're coming for your navel.



Now you're a lefty facing the lefty Miley. The release point appears to be coming from behind you, making any fastball inside brutal to deal with. Miley can start fastballs away off the plate and bring them back to the corner, and if you get to two strikes, there's a 34 percent chance you're seeing a slider. And, remember, that slider is starting behind you.



McGee says 'Hit this'




Good news: Hitting against Tampa's Jake McGee is not complicated. There's mostly only one thing to worry about, and that's mid-to-upper 90s velocity repeatedly.



"For better or worse, [McGee] does almost all of it with the fastball," the official said. "It's just dominant velocity from the left side."



The lefty struck out 34 percent of batters last season in 55 1/3 innings while walking only 5 percent. Righties? Lefties? Didn't really matter -- he brutalized both. Lefties had a .289 OBP, righties a .157. McGee does have a second pitch, a cutter, which he uses to steal a strike by surprise in a 1-1 count or fool a hitter in a 2-2 count.



Otherwise, a fastball is coming, and the best option is to sit location. McGee favors the glove side heavily against lefties, which helps the hitter, because if he throws a cutter, it will break to the outer half and you have a shot to hang in on it. Righties have the tougher gig against McGee, because he will work both halves of the plate and the cutter is breaking into your hands. If you're sitting on an inside fastball, you probably pull that pitch foul. If you're sitting away, well, you're screwed. That seems to be a common outcome against McGee.



If anything happens to closer Fernando Rodney, McGee could be the next Jansen, "breaking out" in a prime-time role.
 
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Rumors.
If Billingsley is healthy..
February, 19, 2013
Feb 1911:32AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintIt’s still early in Dodgers camp, but there are encouraging signs regarding Chad Billingsley, who sat out the final month of 2012 due to a partially torn elbow ligament.


Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reports Billingsley already been on the mound about a dozen times since he started his throwing program last month and the pitcher is reporting “no problems.”

The Dodgers came to camp with eight starting pitchers and Billingsley will have one of those jobs if he is ready. Assuming that scenario unfolds, Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com says the Dodgers could accelerate their efforts to trade Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang or Ted Lilly.

Capuano would be an attractive candidate given he had a 3.72 ERA last season and has a manageable $6 million salary.Tags:Los Angeles Dodgers, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly
Minors likely for Campana
February, 19, 2013
Feb 1910:48AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintThe D-backs added another candidate to their outfield mix Monday by acquiring Tony Campana from the Cubs for minor league pitchers Jesus Castillo and Erick Leal.

Campana hit .264 with 30 stolen bases in 89 games for the Cubs last season and was designated him for assignment earlier this month. While Campana will get a chance to compete for a roster spot, GM Kevin Towers says it is far more likely he will start the season at Triple-A Reno, reports MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.Tags:Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, Tony Campana
Mets could shop Turner
February, 19, 2013
Feb 1910:18AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintA 40-man roster crunch could prompt the New York Mets to consider dealing infielder Justin Turner late in spring training, says Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.


The Mets signed a host of players to minor league deals over the winter and will have to find spots for Pedro Feliciano, Scott Atchison and LaTroy Hawkins if they earn places in the bullpen. The same scenario would apply for outfielders such as Marlon Byrd and Andrew Brown, and a deal for Turner could clear some space.

Turner is a .252/.324/.354 hitter in parts of four major league seasons.Tags:New York Mets, Justin Turner
Options to replace Gamel
February, 19, 2013
Feb 1910:03AM ETBy AJ Mass | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments1EmailPrintWith Corey Hart recovering from off-season knee surgery, the Milwaukee Brewers were planning on giving Mat Gamel the first base job until their slugger was able to resume play. That, apparently, is no longer a possibility. According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, two days after aggravating his own knee injury, Gamel will miss the entire 2013 season. That leaves the Brewers with players like Taylor Green, Alex Gonzalez, and Bobby Crosby as possible fill-ins, but perhaps it also opens the door for the signing of free agent Carlos Lee.

Lee did hit 60 home runs over a season-and-a-half for the Brewers back in 2005 and 2006, and is currently shopping his wares as a free agent following a disappointing nine homer season split between the Houston Astros and the Miami Marlins in 2012.

The Brewers also have asked about Mike Carp, who was designated for assignment by the Mariners last week.Tags:Milwaukee Brewers, Carlos Lee, Corey Hart, Mat Gamel
Soriano's trade value
February, 19, 2013
Feb 199:50AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintThe Chicago Cubs have been looking for a new home for Alfonso Soriano for years, and a deal this season seems more feasible given his mammoth contract is down to a manageable $36 million over the next two years.

Sensing the obvious, Soriano tells Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com he would be open to a deal if the Cubs fall out of contention. Soriano, who has a no-trade clause, said there are “six or seven teams” he would agree to as landing spots. The 37-year-old reportedly nixed a possible deal to the Giants last season and wants to play for a team in the central USA or on the East Coast. The Orioles and Phillies have been linked to Soriano in the recent past.

Soriano restored some of his value last season by hitting 32 home runs, driving in a career-high 108 runs and demonstrating more mobility in left field.Tags:Chicago Cubs, Alfonso Soriano
Smoak gets his chance
February, 19, 2013
Feb 199:17AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintAfter yet another solid finish, Justin Smoak will get a chance to be the regular first baseman for the Seattle Mariners.

Mariners manager Eric Wedge said Monday that barring "something drastic" Smoak will open this season at first base and Kendrys Morales will be designated hitter. Smoak hit .341 last September, the third straight season he has hit at least .300 in the season’s final month.

The 26-year-old Smoak has just a .223 batting average over three seasons, so his leash will not be a long one, nor should it be. If Smoak starts slowly, Wedge would have the option of turning to Morales or to offseason pickup Michael Morse.Tags:Seattle Mariners, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak
The cost of keeping Cano
February, 19, 2013
Feb 198:55AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintOne of the biggest storylines in the Bronx this season is the impending free agency of Robinson Cano, a saga that started to unfold Monday when the All-Star second baseman was peppered with numerous questions about his future with the Yankees.


Mark Feinsand reports Cano gave the very predictable response: “I’m just focused on playing the game and just help the team to win a championship.”

Behind the scenes, general manager Brian Cashman obviously is trying to figure out what it will take to keep Cano, a four-time All-Star who has been in the Top 10 of AL MVP voting three times and owns two Gold Glove Awards. Cano's current deal will have paid him $57 million over six years (2008-13), but his next contract is going to dwarf that.

Early estimations have put possible numbers in the range of $180-200 million over six to eight years. A quick deal seems unlikely since Cano is represented by Scott Boras, who usually takes his clients through the free agent process.

There is no rush to make a deal, but John Harper of the Daily News says the Yankees may have no choice but to pay a hefty price since Cano is the only elite player on the club currently in his prime. “When the time comes, they’ll have to pay Cano and simply pray he turns out to be more like Derek Jeter than A-Rod,” Harper writes.

Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Yankees are less inclined to hand out long-term deals in light of the disastrous 10-year, $275 million contract given to Rodriguez.

Tags:New York Yankees, Robinson Cano
Long-term deal for Walker?
February, 19, 2013
Feb 197:48AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintAfter signing Andrew McCutchen to a six-year contract last spring, the Pirates may soon turn their attention to a deal with second baseman Neil Walker.


“Absolutely that's a possibility,” team president Frank ****elly told Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune-Review on Monday.

Walker, who has said he would welcome a long-term deal, is signed for this season at $3.3 million. Any deal would likely be for at least his three remaining years of arbitration. The 27-year-old has put up consistent slash lines over his first three seasons, averaging .280/.339/.424.Tags:tongue:ittsburgh Pirates, Neil Walker
Boston's options with Aceves
February, 19, 2013
Feb 197:16AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintRed Sox reliever Alfredo Aceves spent a good portion of the 2012 season butting heads with manager Bobby Valentine, and he didn’t exactly impress new skipper John Farrell during a workout Sunday, as Joe McDonald of ESPNBoston.com explains.


During a workout on one of the practice fields, Aceves was supposed to throw live batting practice, except that his tosses were so lifeless that Farrell approached the right-hander to ask if everything was OK. "His session on the mound didn't go as intended. He's healthy. It's been addressed," Farrell said.

Aceves is a durable reliever who appeared in 69 games last season, but there already is talk in Boston whether Sunday’s antics were another sign that the righthander must go. Farrell is preaching a “team concept” in Boston, and Aceves already is testing the patience of the new manager.

Alex Speier of WEEI.com discusses the club’s options with Aceves, such as trying to trade him or even releasing him solely for bad behavior, a move that would undoubtedly draw a grievance from the Players' Association.

Rick Doyle of NESN.com says Aceves is still too valuable to consider cutting ties.

Our Buster Olney has more on the job status of Aceves in Monday's blog:

Buster Olney
Will Aceves remain?
"Boston is loaded with bullpen depth, and although Aceves has a good arm and can be useful, you'd have to assume that the Red Sox aren't going to have a lot of patience with him. They don't have to have him around to win, and they need a change of culture this year, with everyone pulling in the same direction."

Tags:Boston Red Sox, Alfredo Aceves
Deal for Carp likely
February, 19, 2013
Feb 197:07AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintAt least a handful of teams have kicked the tires on first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp, who was designated for assignment by the Mariners last week.

Seattle has until Friday to trade Carp, release him or assign him outright to the minor leagues, and GM Jack Zdurencik tells MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy a deal could get done in the next day or two.

McCalvy says the Brewers, who are dealing with injuries at first base to Corey Hart and Mat Gamel, have inquired about Carp, a .213 hitter in 59 games last season. The Twins, Astros and Red Sox have some interest, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.Tags:Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Mike Carp
Second base battle in Toronto
February, 19, 2013
Feb 196:46AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintThe job of second baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays will go to Maicer Izturis or Emilio Bonifacio, neither of whom has started more than 64 games at the position in any single season.


Izturis appeared to be the front-runner entering camp after agreeing to a three-year, $10 million deal in the offseason, but manager John Gibbons seemed to backtrack a little from that stance, on Sunday, reports John Lott of the National Post.

Both players can play multiple positions, and Bonifacio, acquired in the blockbuster deal with the Marlins, also has outfield experience. Gibbons also has the opportunity to mix and match as the season progresses.

Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail says the Blue Jays brass is split on whether Bonifacio plays defense well enough to be the everyday second baseman.

As for a possible winner, Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus says to follow the money trail:

Ben Lindbergh
AL Position Battles
"Based on early indications, both Alex Anthopoulos and John Gibbons prefer the player who will be making more money (Izturis). But forget the salaries; the stats support their preference too. Both players can take a walk and Bonifacio has better speed, but Izturis makes more contact, has superior power and is a stronger defender. PECOTA projects a .735 OPS for him and a .697 mark for Bonifacio."Tags:Toronto Blue Jays, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis
Maybe, Maybin not?
February, 18, 2013
Feb 1812:45PM ETBy AJ Mass | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintIt is certainly early on in the spring training process, but that doesn't mean the San Diego Padres aren't going to be monitoring the progress of Cameron Maybin very closely as he attempts to rebound from a sore right wrist.

Initial reports had Maybin all set to return to action on Monday, but the injury left him unable to participate. Maybin was quick to tell reporters that he would have been able to play had this been the regular season, but keep in mind that he did miss some time due to an injury on this same wrist during the 2012 campaign.

The sky is certainly not falling here, and there's no reason to go dropping Maybin to the bottom of your draft lists just yet. That said, one would certainly hope that Maybin's absence doesn't go on for very much longer, lest the team be forced to plan for a whole lot more of Chris Denorfia than expected this April.Tags:San Diego Padres, Cameron Maybin
Profar, so good?
February, 18, 2013
Feb 1812:23PM ETBy AJ Mass | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintBoth Jurickson Profar and Adrian Beltre came to the same conclusion in recent days, but for very different reasons. Neither member of the Texas Rangers will be participating in this year's World Baseball Classic.

For Beltre, who was going to suit up for the Dominican Republic, it comes down to his not being 100 percent healthy. Beltre has a minor right calf muscle suffered during early team workouts and simply doesn't want the issue to linger into games that count.

As for Profar, the decision to bail on Team Netherlands has everything to do with his hoping to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster and avoiding the forecast demotion to Triple-A. The team had left the decision in Profar's hands, and after going back and forth for a few weeks, he's decided to stay in camp.

However, it is very premature to assume this means Profar will "head north" with the team when April comes. The Rangers are going to want their top prospect playing games and not sitting on the bench, so it will take an incredibly hot spring to force their hand.
Tags:Texas Rangers, Jurickson Profar, Adrian Beltre
Wainwright's contract talks
February, 18, 2013
Feb 1810:25AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintThe St. Louis Cardinals would like nothing better than to work out a long-term deal with ace righthander Adam Wainwright, who is entering the final season of a six-year, $36 million.


The two sides decided last week to put their negotiations on hold, but Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes Monday that the pitcher and the club remain on good terms. Comparisons were already being drawn to two years ago, when free-agent-to-be Albert Pujols came to camp without a deal and ultimately landed with the Angels the following winter.

The 31-year-old Wainwright, owner of an 80-48 record with a 3.15 ERA, has one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball and will be looking for a big raise. Cole Hamels of the Phillies (seven years, $153 million) and Matt Cain of the Giants (eight years, $140 million) each signed highly lucrative extensions in the offseason, but each is a few years younger than Wainwright.

And as we saw with Pujols, the Cardinals do not hand anyone a blank check. Tags:St. Louis Cardinals, Adam Wainwright
What happens with Buck?
February, 18, 2013
Feb 189:50AM ETBy Doug Mittler | ESPN.com Recommend0Comments0EmailPrintThe New York Mets landed two catchers, veteran John Buck and hot prospect Travis d’Arnaud, from Toronto as part of the deal for R.A. Dickey.

Buck is known primarily for his defense (as are most .235 career hitters), and his job is essentially to keep the seat warm until d’Arnaud is ready for regular duty. Assuming d’Arnaud is ready at some point in 2013, Buck could find himself as midseason trade bait, speculates Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

The Mets are the fourth major league team for the 32-year-old Buck, who is in the final season of a three-year, $18 million deal. A low batting average doesn’t necessarily reduce the demand for a catcher. Just as Russell Martin, who hit .211 for the Yankees last season and got a two-year, $17 million deal from the Pirates.
 
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Nationals must sign Kyle Lohse.
Fans of the Washington Nationals have much to be excited about, because a team that already won 98 games last year looks like it could be geared to be even better in 2013. This year's edition won't have to worry about shutting down Stephen Strasburg, and they surprised many by adding Rafael Soriano to what was already a solid bullpen.



They can expect improved outfield performance given that Bryce Harper has a year of experience under his belt, Jayson Werth has returned from yet another injury -- don't forget, he was excellent (.312/.394/.441) in 52 starts after coming back last year -- and they've finally filled the leadoff/center field hole they've been trying to patch for years by trading for Denard Span.



GM Mike Rizzo capped off his busy offseason by adding Dan Haren to the rotation, retaining Adam LaRoche on the club's terms and rebuilding some farm depth by trading the somewhat overrated Mike Morse to Seattle.



All in all, it has been a very good winter for the Nationals, and they're the consensus pick to win the National League East, especially given the teardowns in Miami and New York, and the continued aging of the Phillies. But for a team that's truly built to win now, there's one more move they could and should make -- they need to be the club that swoops in to sign Kyle Lohse, the one big-ticket free agent remaining.



How good is he?


In some ways, the fact that Lohse remains unsigned headed into the second half of February seems like proof of the education of an industry. He brings 30 wins, a 3.11 ERA and one championship ring over the past two seasons into free agency, numbers that ordinarily would generate something of a feeding frenzy on an open market that is always desperate for quality starting pitching. Yet here we are, with camps open to pitchers and catchers across Arizona and Florida, and Lohse is still out there.



It's not hard to see why, of course. Teams have wisely begun to look beyond misleading win-loss records to dig a little deeper, and what you have in Lohse is someone on the wrong side of 30 with a long history of inconsistency who doesn't miss bats and missed time in both 2009 and 2010 because of arm injuries.



Thirty wins over two years may seem elite, but a 3.58 FIP and a 5.72 K/9 -- the latter among the 10 lowest figures of all qualified starters over the past two seasons -- indicate someone who is much more of a mid-rotation starter. Throw in the presence of Scott Boras and the anchor of draft pick compensation due to the qualifying offer St. Louis extended, and you can see why Lohse's stock isn't as high as he might have thought back in the fall.



Lohse may not be among the elite group of pitchers in baseball, but a veteran mid-rotation guy still brings considerable value. He has seemingly become so overrated that he might actually now be underrated, because he's still a good, solid picher, and his market may have fallen to where he might be a steal at this point. While he won't miss bats, he has made himself into a control artist, walking only 1.62 batters per nine innings last season -- better than all but four other starters -- and finishing in the top 25 in home run rate (0.81 per nine). On the right terms, he would be an improvement for nearly every team in baseball.



Why Washington?


The Nationals make the most sense because two of the issues that may scare off other clubs -- Boras and the draft pick -- simply don't apply here. Rizzo famously has a good relationship with the super-agent, counting Boras clients Harper, Soriano, Werth, Strasburg and Danny Espinosa among the current Nationals already. Boras also represents Edwin Jackson, who waited until February to sign with Washington last year before moving on to the Cubs this winter. The Nationals already forfeited their first-round draft pick to sign Soriano, so picking up Lohse would cost them only their next pick, which would be in the high 60s in what is expected to be a shallow draft.



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Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
Stephen Strasburg, like Lohse, is a Scott Boras client.

That's important because Washington is in exactly the right position on the win curve to continue to try to improve. That is, it wouldn't make sense for a team such as Houston to go after Lohse, because spending millions and a draft pick to simply improve from 60 wins to 63 wins ultimately makes little difference. For the Nationals, who do still have to fight off the reloaded Braves on their way to another division title, every win counts -- far more than a late second-round pick would.



Given that Washington already has a solid rotation in Strasburg, Haren, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler, collecting Lohse may seem like an unnecessary addition that would merely lead to an embarrassment of riches. Perhaps so, but there's ample reason for the Nationals to want to seal some of the cracks that are easily visible here.



Gonzalez may yet have to deal with the repercussions of his alleged involvement in the South Florida PED mess that has caught up Alex Rodriguez and others, while concerns over Haren's back and hip were serious enough that he managed only a one-year deal, coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. If either one misses time, the team is without an obvious or appealing replacement because safety blanket John Lannan moved on this winter.


Adding Lohse probably would bump Detwiler out of the rotation, and that would not only improve the starters, it could solve one of the team's more glaring holes -- the lack of a real lefty option in the bullpen. Washington lost Sean Burnett to free agency and missed on available lefties such as J.P. Howell, which currently leaves them with only the mediocre Zach Duke as a southpaw reliever.


Detwiler had a decent season in his first full year in the Washington rotation, contributing 164 1/3 innings of a 3.40 ERA, but advanced statistics are not a huge fan; he misses even fewer bats than Lohse does and brings neither elite velocity nor a great out pitch. Having him pitch in relief might allow his velocity to play up somewhat while also helping the club more than he would in the rotation, given that he has been very effective against lefty hitters over his career (.214/.307/.300 line against). He would not only be a better option than Duke, he would be available to return to the rotation should injuries require it.



The real question is whether the Nationals could find the money for Lohse, because they have spent so much elsewhere. That said, Lohse doesn't look to be in much of a position to demand a massive deal at this point and Boras has shown a willingness to be creative with Washington, deferring a sizable portion of Soriano's deal. Assuming Boras is never going to allow Lohse to sign for less than the $13.3 million qualifying offer he declined, a back-loaded two-year deal in the $28 million to $32 million range, perhaps with a third-year vesting option, seems appropriate for both sides.



From a baseball point of view, it almost seems like a no-brainer for everyone. Washington would improve its rotation depth and bullpen while fully gearing up for a World Series run; Lohse would get a chance to win another ring while remaining in the National League and playing in front of a good defense that should also score plenty of runs to support him.



There are other places that might make sense for Lohse -- teams such as the Los Angeles Angels or Cleveland Indians, who both already have lost draft picks and could use another starter. After pricey offseasons for each, those clubs could be at their spending limits, and Lohse may not have interest in returning to the more difficult American League for the first time since 2006. Washington is the best fit if the money is there, and Boras and Rizzo always seem to find a way.
 
Felix Hernandez’s Velocity.
Last week, the Seattle Mariners inked their ace, Felix Hernandez, to a $175 million extension for the next seven years. The dominating righty will be entering his age-27 season this year, meaning the contract will through his age-33 season. That is, unless, he injures his right elbow.

Embedded within Hernandez’s contract is a clause that gives the Mariners a club option for an eighth season — at a paltry $1 million — should Hernandez miss at least 130 consecutive days due to any kind of procedure to his right elbow. The Mariners negotiated this clause after some concern over what their doctors saw in the pitcher’s MRI.

Apparently, the club was reassured enough by their medical staff to sign the mammoth deal, even though the track record for long-term pitcher extensions isn’t the greatest. But how confident should the team be?

To begin with, Hernandez has been a starter in the league since 2005, and he moved into the rotation full time in 2006. Since 1920, Hernandez ranks 13th in innings pitched through the age-26 season. That list of 13 reads as you would expect — a group of historical hurlers — some of who continued their greatness after age 26 and others whose performances fell precipitously:

Name G GS IP ERA- FIP- K% BB% HR/9 BABIP LOB% WAR
Bert Blyleven 282 279 2143.2 76 72 19.9% 6.4% 0.62 0.279 76.10% 55.5
Don Drysdale 313 262 1945 81 84 18.4% 6.8% 0.81 0.274 75.50% 39.9
Hal Newhouser 300 235 1889 71 76 16.2% 10.7% 0.26 0.268 73.90% 42.8
Catfish Hunter 286 263 1881.2 97 102 16.3% 7.4% 0.94 0.246 75.50% 18.9
Fernando Valenzuela 244 234 1805.2 87 85 19.6% 8.9% 0.55 0.275 73.30% 36.0
Dwight Gooden 238 236 1713.2 82 72 22.1% 7.2% 0.46 0.286 74.10% 45.4
Joe Coleman 260 238 1686.2 98 94 17.2% 8.3% 0.79 0.272 74.50% 23.3
Robin Roberts 230 207 1669.1 76 83 11.8% 5.7% 0.68 0.264 75.50% 33.6
Vida Blue 235 224 1666 82 88 17.2% 7.9% 0.63 0.254 75.40% 29.9
Mel Harder 291 200 1662 79 85 7.6% 6.7% 0.34 0.291 66.40% 32.0
Pete Donohue 253 209 1634.1 89 87 6.8% 4.3% 0.20 0.289 65.60% 28.2
Milt Pappas 260 232 1623 90 96 14.1% 7.9% 0.79 0.256 74.80% 20.6
Felix Hernandez 238 238 1620.1 78 81 22.2% 7.2% 0.72 0.298 74.60% 38.3

Here’s how each of those pitchers finished their careers after that:

Name G GS IP ERA- FIP- K% BB% HR/9 BABIP LOB% WAR
Bert Blyleven 410 406 2826.1 92 88 17% 7% 0.90 0.285 73% 54.5
Don Drysdale 205 203 1487 86 94 17% 5% 0.64 0.269 76% 25.6
Hal Newhouser 187 138 1099 85 88 11% 8% 0.67 0.270 72% 19.9
Catfish Hunter 214 213 1567.2 91 106 12% 6% 1.02 0.239 75% 16.5
Fernando Valenzuela 209 190 1124.1 112 117 12% 10% 0.92 0.285 71% 5.7
Dwight Gooden 192 174 1087 102 103 16% 10% 1.02 0.291 71% 12.7
Joe Coleman 222 100 864.2 114 110 13% 11% 0.90 0.286 69% 5.5
Robin Roberts 446 402 3019.1 96 96 13% 4% 1.13 0.266 73% 43.1
Vida Blue 267 249 1677.1 101 104 14% 9% 0.79 0.271 73% 18.9
Mel Harder 268 232 1715.1 98 100 8% 8% 0.49 0.281 70% 22.6
Pete Donohue 91 61 478 125 103 5% 6% 0.60 0.328 63% 4.3
Milt Pappas 256 233 1554 95 96 12% 5% 0.90 0.281 74% 25.3

Now, obviously these pitchers performed worse and provided less value than before age 27, and that’s to be expected. Only Catfish Hunter managed to see his adjusted ERA improve. Additionally, these pitchers saw their K% decline by roughly 3%, on average, and their HR/9 increase by .25. Another, admittedly crude, way to look at the decline is to compare WAR/100 IP. Here, 11 out of 12 pitchers declined, with only Catfish Hunter being slightly better (+.05).

These pitchers also saw their innings decline significantly. Eight out of the 12 pitchers saw their innings drop, relative to before age 26. Five of those eight experienced innings-pitched declines of at least 37%.

The Mariners are essentially betting Hernandez can give them an additional 28 WAR through age 33. A quick glance at this list tells us that only two pitchers with a similar workload by age 26 have managed to produce that much value — with a few coming close.

This is a long way of saying that, when we think of aging curves for pitchers, age is only one factor. We also need to keep in mind the amount of wear and tear pitchers experience and how that can dramatically impact how much “greatness” a pitcher has left — even for a player as young as Felix. And, to that point, there are some warnings signs for Hernandez: The biggest has to do with that right elbow.

Before reports of the questionable MRI and contract clause, there was reason for concern. Like most pitchers, Felix has seen his fastball velocity decline throughout his young career. That isn’t troubling. What is, though, is the rate at which that velocity has fallen.

Since PITCHf/x came online in 2007, Hernandez has seen his fastball velocity drop between 4 mph and 5 mph, depending on what data you look at. This applies to both his four-seam fastball and his sinker (which, according to Brooks Baseball, he throws significantly more often):



We know from previous research on velocity and pitcher aging that, on average, starting pitchers lose about .55 mph from their four-seam fastball between ages 21 and 26. Hernandez’s velocity loss is 10 times that amount. We also know that experiencing a velocity loss of at least 1 mph from one season to the next increases a pitcher’s odds of injury, further velocity loss and/or ineffectiveness. Hernandez has had such a decline four out of the past five seasons. Additionally, his sinker’s velocity declined between 1 and 1.5 mph in 2012.

However, while Hernandez lost velocity last year his overall velocity trend was more normal than 2011. Pitchers generally gain velocity as the season goes on. In 2011, Hernandez was essentially throwing his sinker the hardest early in April, only to see his velocity steadily decline through September (93.5 vs. 92.9 mph). Last year, Hernandez was only hitting a shade under 92 mph in April compared to 93 mph in September, more what we would expect.

That being said, let’s assume Felix’s sinker velocity will average about 92 mph in 2013. But how does that compare to other pitchers between 27 and 33 years old? Well, since 2007, we really don’t have a good comparison.

Based on our PITCHf/x data, of the 12 pitchers who rely on their sinkers at least 20% of the time, none throw it as hard as Felix is likely to next year. The closest comparison might be Adam Wainwright, who has thrown his sinker 26.7% of the time and averaged 90.6 mph. Since 2007, Wainwright has averaged a 75 ERA- and 77 FIP-. If we remove the age restriction, we find guys like Chris Carpenter (30.5%, 91.9 mph), Hiroki Kuroda (27.5%, 91.8 mph) and Derek Holland (21.3%, 92.9 mph).

Is Felix’s velocity decline troubling? Yes, given what we know about aging and velocity trends. But since Felix does not rely on his four-seamer as his primary pitch, the decline need not be as concerning as if it was happening to a different pitcher. Moreover, that Felix’s in-season velocity trend once again resembled a normal trend is a good sign. This year could be a critical one to determining how this extension will play out. If Felix can hold the line on his sinker’s velocity, it bodes well for his continued dominance. (In fact, his Steamer projection — which takes into account velocity — sees Felix posting a 5.4 WAR season in 2013.) However, if his sinker again declines significantly, it could further signal that Felix is aging at an accelerated rate — or worse, that his elbow in fact is not sound.


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Oakland Athletics Top 15 Prospects (2012-13).
The emergence of Addison Russell gives the organization a potential corner-stone talent to eventually build around. The last two drafts have also added some depth into a system that has been slowly depleted over time.


#1 Addison Russell (SS)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 244 79 10 7 23 48 16 .364 .428 .590 .456

Russell exploded in his first taste of pro ball after being selected 11th overall by the A’s during the 2012 amateur draft. He played at three levels where he combined to hit .369 and posted a 1.027 OPS in 55 games. Russell, 19, has above-average bat speed, a good eye at the plate and professional coaching helped him become more consistent with his swing. A contact I spoke with said the young hitter had an amazing debut. “He torched the baseball offensively at every level… controlling the zone while hitting rockets all over the diamond. His swing is short, compact and powerful,” he said.

Along with surprising pop, Russell also has above-average speed although he’s still learning the nuances of running the bases. In the field, he shows a strong arm, good range and improving actions. That same contact said of the middle infielder’s glove, “His defense rivals his offense. [He's a] very consistent and athletic fielder. He’s capable of making the routine and spectacular play… with exceptional range and reliability.” Russell also earns high marks for his make-up, according to another talent evaluator I spoke with recently. “He plays at a very high level of intensity… It comes out every day.”

When asked what Russell needs to work on during the coming year the second talent evaluator I spoke with said the prospect needs to control the strike zone better and learn to be a little more patient. “He has a chance to be an upper-level hitter with power,” he said, likening him to a young Barry Larkin. “There is nothing this kid doesn’t do.” After finishing the year in low-A ball, the Florida native will return there to open the 2013 season but it would not be shocking to see him push himself to high-A in the second half of the season.


#2 Sonny Gray (P)



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Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 27 27 152.0 158 8 5.86 3.43 4.38 3.83

On first blush it might be easy to say Gray’s 2012 season was disappointing because his numbers were modest at the double-A level. However, the right-hander was playing in just his first full pro season after being selected out of Vanderbilt University with the 18th overall pick of the 2011 amateur draft. Gray, 23, was also challenged with a new delivery in the first half of ’12 before he was allowed to revert to his traditional mechanics.

Gray is a little under-sized from a traditional standpoint but a talent evaluator I spoke with doesn’t expect him to become a reliever as some have suggested as a future role for the prospect. “He’s a starting pitcher. He’ll eventually succeed in that role at the top level,” he said. “Sometimes people get too enamoured with height on pitchers. Successful pitchers come in all shapes, height and sizes. 2013 is a potential breakout year for Sonny.” Despite his sub-6’0” height, Gray manages to stay on top of his fastball and gets a good downward plane on his offerings.

Gray generates low-to-mid-90s velocity on his fastball and has a curveball with plus potential. Another contact I spoke with said he needs to improve his location and efficiency but raved about his heater and breaking ball. “This kid definitely has weapons,” he said. “His fastball and curveball are off the charts.” His changeup has the potential to be average. He should open 2013 in triple-A and could be one of the first pitchers recalled in the event of an injury.


#3 Dan Straily (P)



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Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
23 7 7 39.1 7.32 3.66 30.0 % 3.89 6.48 -0.5

Straily exceeded all expectations in 2012 when he dominated both double-A and triple-A before making seven big league starts for Oakland. The right-hander is not overpowering but he can get his fastball up into the 91-93 mph range. He has two very good secondary pitches in a slider and changeup, while an inconsistent curveball rounds out his four-pitch repertoire. His ability to command his pitches with solid command, as well as an understanding of how to change speeds and move the ball around, makes him a valuable big league pitcher.

Straily, 24, has come a long way since being selected in the 24th round of the 2009 amateur draft and was no where to be found on the A’s Top 15 prospects list prior to 2012. He’ll open 2013 as a favorite to win a starting rotation spot on the big league club but he’ll have to fight off fellow 2012 surprise contributor A.J. Griffin.


#4 Michael Choice (OF)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 402 103 15 10 33 88 5 .287 .356 .423 .349

The 10th overall selection from the 2010 amateur draft, Choice is yet another former first round pick who is close to contributing to the big league ball club. The power outfielder’s best tool is his raw power. A notoriously slow starter, the Texas native struggled a bit in the first half of the year before catching fire. A broken hand quickly extinguished the flame and ended his season in July.

Choice doesn’t hit breaking balls overly well and strikes out a lot so he might end up hitting in the .240-.260 range in the majors. A talent evaluator I spoke with also said the prospect has an unorthodox swing that can at times cause disruptions in his timing. However, he’s sees a lot that he likes in the young hitter. “There may not be a quicker or more powerful bat in the minor leagues… His power potential is off the charts.”

Choice is an efficient base runner but not overly fleet-of-foot. He’s spent time in center field in the minors but will very likely shift to left field in the majors — especially in spacious Oakland Coliseum — due to his average range and fringe-average arm. A second contact I spoke with about Choice said he offers more than just power. “Michael is a very good defensive outfielder that is reliable… He does a lot of things well and plays extremely hard. Although, ultimately, we are looking forward to the day that Michael allows his Louisville Slugger to do damage at the top level.”

With the emergence of both Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick, as well as the off-season trade (steal) of Chris Young, Oakland’s outfield depth is solid. Choice will spend the bulk of 2013 in triple-A unless an injury creates an opening for the young hitter.


#5 Renato Nunez (3B)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 186 52 18 4 17 32 4 .325 .403 .550 .427

Nunez, who turns 19 around opening day, was one of Oakland’s surprising big-dollar signees from 2010 with a bonus of more than $2 million. He’s spent his first two pro seasons in rookie ball and came over to North America, from the Dominican Summer League, prior to 2012.

The teenager hit .325 last year while also showing good power in the Arizona League. A contact I spoke with said Nunez has “a short, repeatable swing to hit the baseball with authority. His doubles and extra base hits will eventually turn into blasts.”The Venezuela native is aggressive at the plate but has shown a willingness to take a walk. A second talent evaluator I spoke with said Nunez got rid of his ‘baby fat’ last season and showed better athleticism. He called the young hitter naturally gifted at the plate. “He made tremendous strides in his overall game,” he commented.

Nunez has the potential to be a solid third baseman thanks to his strong arm and average range. He needs to improve his actions and consistency to help cut down on youthful errors. The contact I spoke with said the defense improved by leaps and bounds, calling him a smart, hard-working kid. It’s possible that Nunez will impress enough in spring training to earn a full-season assignment but the organization may want to hold him back in extended spring training to help him focus on the fundamentals of the game.


#6 Grant Green (SS/OF)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
24 639 172 30 17 43 94 14 .292 .340 .449 .348

A strong first full season in the California League in 2010 may have set some unfair expectations of this former first round draft pick. Green hit for impressive power that season
– including 39 doubles and 20 homers — but his true strengths come from a well-rounded game that includes more gap power than over-the-fence pop. He’s a solid base runner but his speed tool is just average.

A contact I spoke with referred to Green as the most consistent hitter in the A’s minor league system over the past three seasons. A second contact I spoke to referred to the prospect as a natural born hitter. “I believe wholeheartedly that he will have better numbers in the majors than the minor leagues,” he said. “I’ve compared Grant’s bat numerous times over the years to Michael Young’s. That’s high praise for anyone.”

Originally drafted as a shortstop, the California native played five different positions in 2012 at the triple-A level — shortstop, second base, third base, left field and center field. I was told recently that Green, 25, will still see time at different positions but his main focus in 2013 will be at second base. He has average arm strength for a second baseman and shows solid range and good actions around the bag.

Green has a shot at opening 2013 on the big league roster as a utility man, although the addition of recently-acquired Jed Lowrie could hurt his chances. Further struggles by second base incumbent Jemile Weeks could also give Green a hefty foot in the door.


#7 Miles Head (1B/3B)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 530 160 32 23 39 132 3 .331 .389 .573 .416

The late 2011 trade of former closer Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney to Boston brought 2012 breakout star outfielder Josh Reddick and two prospects, including Head, to Oakland. The young infielder was not a top prospect in the Sox system but he continued his emergence last season in the A’s system. He has above-average power potential and his quick, compact swing helps him hit for a solid average. Head played at both high-A and double-A in 2012, absolutely dominating the California League. “The numbers he put up in one half in the Cal League were crazy,” a contact stated. “There is tremendous upside with this kid.”

While in the Red Sox system, the natural third baseman was moved to first base permanently in 2011. He was shifted back to the hot corner as soon as he joined the A’s system despite his lack of athleticism and limited range. The contact I spoke with said there are no guarantees that Head will stick at third base, but said that he deserves a shot. “He’s so young to just walk away from it because his body doesn’t look the part… This guy has a knack with his hands and has a little arm strength.”

Head injured his shoulder in the Arizona Fall League and appeared in just one game, but the contact I spoke with said the prospect was cleared for regular activity in spring training and should have no issues opening the year on time. He’ll likely return to double-A at the beginning of 2013 but could see triple-A before the year is out. Head could be ready to push for a starting gig at third base for the A’s in 2014.


#8 Daniel Robertson (3B/SS)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 231 47 12 5 23 46 3 .241 .330 .400 .339

Considered an advanced high school bat, Robertson reaffirmed that assessment by playing at two levels in 2012 — in the Arizona rookie league and the more advanced New York Penn League. The right-handed hitter has plus bat speed but has yet to develop loft to his swing so the majority of his hard-hit balls end up in the gaps, rather than over the fence. The development of his power could be important depending on where he ends up defensively.

A natural shortstop, it remains to be seen if Robertson has the range to stick at the position in the upper levels of pro ball. During his debut, he spent time at shortstop and third base, where he struggled with the new position. His strong arm plays at either position but he’s definitely not going to push fellow prospect Addison Russell off shortstop.

A contact I spoke with said Robertson was drafted with the idea of playing third base but could continue to see time at both positions. “He has the physical ability to play shortstop and did a very solid job of it when he played there last summer,” the talent evaluator said. “I’m sure he will get the opportunity to play both as his pro career progresses.” A strong spring could help push Robertson to low-A ball, otherwise the A’s may want to get him some extra defensive reps.


#9 Nolan Sanburn (P)



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Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 7 7 18.2 23 2 9.16 2.89 3.86 3.52

After spending much of his college career at Arkansas in the bullpen, Sanburn was immediately placed in the starting rotation in pro ball and showed potential in seven starts. A contact I spoke with said he was drafted with the plan to develop him as a starter. “He has three or four pitches that have a chance to be above-average and we think those weapons may allow him to develop as a front-line starter,” the talent evaluator said.

The right-hander’s starts never exceeded three innings and he needs to learn to become more efficient and channel his aggressive nature. In short stints, the 21-year-old can hit the upper 90s with his heater. He also has a potentially-plus curveball but lacks a reliable third pitch at this point, although his changeup shows average potential and he’s also working on a cutter.

Sanburn has a shot at opening 2013 in high-A ball, unless the organization wants him to work on expanding his repertoire in a less hostile environment. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 starter or, if he reverts to his bullpen roots, he could develop into a high-leverage reliever that could reach the majors in short order.


#10 Matt Olson (1B)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 213 53 16 9 19 50 0 .282 .352 .521 .387

Like 2012 draft pick Daniel Robertson, Olson was considered a strong hitting prep prospect that could move swiftly through the minors. He has a quick left-handed bat that offers above-average power potential and the ability to hit for average.

A contact I spoke with underscored Olson’s advanced approach. “He knows how to use the field and hit a ball where it’s pitched… He has a chance to develop into a very good hitter for average,” he explained. “At the same time, we think Matt has a chance to continue to get stronger as he matures and we think he’ll develop power to go along with his hitting ability.” Olson has below-average speed on the base paths.

The infield prospect, soon to be 19, was a two-way player for his Georgia high school and was committed to Vanderbilt University in that role. He has a chance to be a strong defender at first base so his arm strength would be mostly wasted at the position. Olson has a very good shot at moving up to low-A ball in 2013.


#11 B.J. Boyd (OF)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 167 43 8 1 23 36 16 .301 .401 .434 .393

A multi-sport start in high school, Boyd entered pro ball with some rough edges despite hitting more than .300 in 39 rookie ball games. He also walked 23 times and the ability to get on-base at a high level could be an important component of his game if it continues as he moves up the organizational ladder. He has some left-handed pop despite his modest frame and will have to avoid letting it cloud his head and take him away from his strengths.

Boyd’s best tool is perhaps his above-average speed and he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts during his debut. A contact I spoke with stated, “He is very athletic and can really run. He has a rare combination of speed and strength, which could be very exciting as he develops.” In the field, Boyd covers a lot of ground in center field but he’s still working to improve his routes and his arm strength is below average so a move to left field could be in the cards. He will likely open 2013 in extended spring training before an assignment to the New York Penn League in June.


#12 Pedro Figueroa (P)



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Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
26 19 0 21.2 5.82 6.23 40.7 % 3.32 5.08 -0.1

Signed way back in 2003, the organization is finally seeing a return on its time and investment in Figueroa. The hard-throwing left-hander was shifted into a full-time relief role in 2012 — after missing parts of 2010 and ’11 due to Tommy John surgery — and made his MLB debut. Figueroa, 27, still struggles with both his command and control and they’ll probably never be more than average thanks in part to his whippy arm action. His repertoire includes a mid-to-high-90s fastball, above-average slider and a decent changeup.

With two very good left-handed relievers head of him on the depth chart in Sean Doolittle and Jeremy Blevins — as well as Japanese veteran Hideki Okajima, Figueroa will likely open 2013 back in triple-A. His ability to serve as a long-man out of the ‘pen or as a spot starter, though, could help him see significant time at the big league level in the coming year. The injury to closer Grant Balfour also thins the waters for the first month of the season.


#13 Chris Bostick (2B)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 316 70 16 3 27 66 12 .251 .325 .369 .331

Bostick, 20, has potential as a hitter and does a little bit of everything. He doesn’t hit for much home run power but he has gap strength and will use the whole field. A contact I spoke with said Bostick is a mature player with good focus at the plate. “He has a solid swing this is conducive to using the entire field and making hard contact,” he said. “Chris’ ability reminds me of ex-big leaguer Junior Spivey. His skill set and athleticism are similar. Chris is a hard-working kid that displays passion for the game.”

The native of New York state could stand to be less aggressive at the plate. He also has solid speed and could steal double-digit bases at the MLB level. Defensively, Bostick has spent time at both shortstop and second base as a pro, although he’s likely to see more time at the keystone as he moves up the ladder. If his development stalls at all, he could offer value off the bench as a utility player. He should open the year in full-season ball.

Another contact I spoke with sees success in the prospect’s future. “We really like Chris’ potential… With young players like these kids, their developments are all based on gaining experience and continuing to improve as the competition continues to improve,” he said.


#14 B.A. Vollmuth (3B)



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Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
22 595 138 32 14 56 144 7 .261 .336 .405 .336

Vollmuth entered pro ball with the reputation of being a bat-first prospect but he hasn’t hit quite as well as expected. With that said, he reached high-A ball in his first full pro season and didn’t embarrass himself along the way. He hits for some power and has more in the tank, but he needs to do a better job of making consistent contact. He also struggles with breaking balls and struck out more than 150 times in 144 A-ball games.

A contact I spoke with said Vollmuth displayed glimpses of his potential in 2012. “He definitely possesses one of the purest fundamental swings in the entire organization… with a pretty [swing] path through the zone with power potential,” he said. “Vollmuth needs to gain some consistency and work to have strong at-bats day to day. 2013 will be a good year to see if he can take his game to the next level.”

Vollmuth, 23, shows promise at the hot corner and has a strong arm but he’s still working on his foot work and the nuances of the position. He could also end up at first base or as a utility player off the bench that offers versatility and some left-handed pop. He could return to high-A ball to begin 2013 and see double-A by the end of the year.


#15 Michael Ynoa (P)



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Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 14 12 30.2 31 3 7.34 7.34 6.46 5.68

Ynoa, 21, has pitched just 40 innings in five years since signing for more than $4 million. The right-hander made 14 appearances in 2012 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the previous year. I asked a contact about how well Ynoa has bounced back from the injury and was told that his stuff is looking good, although it’s not quite back to pre-surgery levels. With that said, his fastball is still working in the low-90s and can touch the mid-90s. He also flashes and above-average curveball but needs to see his changeup improve significantly.

Assuming he’s healthy, Ynoa will open 2013 in low-A ball and the organization hopes he can break the 100-inning barrier — although it’s a big ask. The Dominican Republic native was added to the 40-man roster during the off-season and it started the clock ticking with his options, although his situation could certainly earn him a rare fourth option down the line.


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Diamondbacks Acquire Tony Campana’s Base Stealing.
The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield roulette continued today, as they announced they’d shipped a pair of low level minor leaguers to Chicago in exchange for Tony Campana. Yes, the Diamondbacks just traded for another outfielder, despite the fact that their OF is already one of the most crowded in baseball. With Adam Eaton and Gerardo Parra in the fold, it doesn’t seem entirely clear why Kevin Towers felt that the organization needed another speed-and-defense center fielder.

What is clear, though, is that Campana can help a big league team even though he can’t hit. In fact, Campana might be one of the most interesting bench players in baseball.

Campana has been in a position to steal a base — on first with second open, on second with third base open — 152 times in his Major League career, often because he’s been inserted as a pinch-runner for someone more capable of getting on base than himself. Campana has taken off in 59 of those 152 opportunities (39%), and has been successful on 54 of those attempts (92%). That’s an extraordinarily high stolen base success rate, especially given the frequency with which Campana runs.

Let’s put this into context. In the Major Leagues last year, there were 66,083 stolen base opportunities, and baserunners attempted a steal in 4,365 of those opportunities, or a SB per SB attempt rate of 6.7%. Of course, that includes a lot of sloths who never run, so we don’t necessarily care about the league average, but more what the average is among guys who do run.

So, let’s just look at players who stole at least 10 bases last year, and then look at their stolen base attempts and successes in relation to their opportunities. There were nine players who ran in at least 30% of their opportunities last year.




Player SBO SB CS SB% SBA/Opp SB/Opp
Rajai Davis 118 46 13 78% 50% 39%
Tony Campana 79 30 3 91% 42% 38%
Dee Gordon 110 32 10 76% 38% 29%
Anthony Gose 52 15 3 83% 35% 29%
Darin Mastroianni 71 21 3 88% 34% 30%
Emilio Bonifacio 101 30 3 91% 33% 30%
Carlos Gomez 134 37 6 86% 32% 28%
Jordan Schafer 119 27 9 75% 30% 23%
Everth Cabrera 160 44 4 92% 30% 28%

In terms of frequency of stolen base attempts, only Rajai Davis ran more than Campana last year. In terms of successful stolen bases per opportunity, Davis narrowly edges Campana out for the top spot, but only does so because of the extra usage rate. While Davis stole 16 more bases in 39 more opportunities, he also was thrown out ten more times. Additional steals at a 61% success rate have negative value, so it’s fair to say that Campana was probably the best high volume base stealer in baseball last year.

That’s why Campana finished in a tie for sixth in the Majors in 2012 by wSB, which measures the runs added by a player through base stealing, even though all of the players surrounding him on that leaderboard were essentially full-time players.

If you extend the leaderboard back to 2011, you’ll actually see that Campana rates #2 in Major League Baseball in runs added through base stealing, behind only Coco Crisp, a player with 750 more plate appearances. Campana has created more runs through base stealing the last two years than Michael Bourn, despite the fact that Bourn has almost 1,100 more plate appearances and is one of the game’s best baserunners.

Put simply, Tony Campana is probably the very best base stealing weapon in Major League Baseball right now. He runs even when everyone knows he’s running, and he’s been ridiculously successful even without the element of surprise. He can’t hit, and Cubs fans aren’t as kind in their defensive evaluations as the very-small-sample-metrics have been, but there should be little question that Campana can create a significant amount of value as a pinch runner, and potentially as a defensive replacement as well — there aren’t too many examples of big leaguers this fast that weren’t above average defensive OFs, after all.

With Jason Kubel around, the Diamondbacks have a starting outfielder who needs a defensive caddy and could certainly be pinch run for in late game situations. Parra was presumed to be the guy filling that role, but he may also be Arizona’s best left-handed bat off the bench and could be pressed into fairly regular starting duty if Cody Ross continues to struggle against right-handed pitching, as he has for most of his career. Having Campana on the roster gives Kirk Gibson the ability to start Parra without losing the ability to pinch run for Kubel any time he gets on base in a high leverage situation, and Campana has the ability to get himself into scoring position with regularity.

Jack Moore noted last year that the offensive decline in baseball has made the stolen base more valuable than it used to be, and while a guy like Campana might have seemed like a wasted roster spot 10 years ago, a player with his unique skills can be a significantly larger weapon in this day and age. Even if he doesn’t hit, and even if he isn’t a great defensive outfielder — the jury is still out in that regard — he’s probably still capable of producing close to +1 WAR as a pinch-runner extraordinaire.

We don’t often talk about the value of bench wins, but they’re real, and they can add up. If Campana ends up replacing Eric Hinske on the roster, this could end up being a significant improvement for the D’Backs, especially if he’s deployed in a role that maximizes his baserunning skills without asking him to hit too often.

The days of simply evaluating a player based on his ability to hit are over. Or, at least, they should be. There are ways to produce value in the big leagues without being a good hitter. Tony Campana is probably one of the best people alive at producing that non-hitting value. Instead of focusing on what he can’t do, let’s acknowledge what he can, and note that Campana likely makes the Diamondbacks a better baseball team than they were without him.


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Sanchez versus Syndergaard: Prospect Showdown.
By December it became clear Sandy Alderson would trade R.A. Dickey before his Cy Young Award could collect a spec of dust. The only questions remaining were where the knuckleballer would land and who the Mets would receive in return.

It came as little surprise that Alex Anthopoulos was lurking — fresh off acquiring much Miami’s talent less than a month earlier. It was certain the Mets would require Travis d’Arnaud to make a deal, but would they demand another player, too? Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez vaulted up prospect lists this season as pitchers in the Lansing Lugnuts’ rotation, and their success created a divide among analysts. Syndergaard or Sanchez? Sanchez or Syndergaard? Who was atop Alderson’s list? Was Anthopoulous correct when he deemed Sanchez “untouchable?”
Sanchez is listed at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds and is a lean, projectable right-handed pitcher. Out of the windup, his tempo is more deliberate than one would expect for a 20-year-old starter who sits in the mid-90s with his fastball. Despite above-average athleticism and good body control, Sanchez has trouble finding a consistent release point. Part of Sanchez’s issues stem from his long legs. After raising his left knee to his hands and beginning to uncoil towards to the plate, he employs a small kick toward the batter.

This movement is inconsistent and he often finds his plant foot landing at a different place each time. When he plants early, his fastball — which normally has good sink and arm side run — flattens out and sails high in the zone. While control has hindered Sanchez, he has an elite ceiling due to featuring three of the minor leagues’ best pitches. In addition to his fastball, Sanchez has a devastating change-up that runs away from left-handed hitters. His change-up came into the season as his third offering but now rivals his 12-6 curveball as his best pitch. The curve is also a true out-pitch that features tight rotation and no visible hump. Like all curveballs, it can be inconsistent, but it’s already a plus-offering.

Syndergaard is also a projectable right-hander. He stands an inch taller and is more physically developed than Sanchez, especially in the upper half. Interestingly, he is also slow to the plate out of the windup and from the stretch. Due to his size and high three-quarter delivery, Syndergaard’s fastball is thrown on a steep downward plane with moderate sinking action. While he is subject to youthful inconsistency, Syndergaard has good command of the pitch and pounds the bottom of the strike zone.

Due to these attributes, it’s easy to project the 20-year-old to be a ground-ball machine at higher levels. He couples his fastball with an above-average-or-better change-up that features both sink and fade. The two pitches complement each other, and inexperienced Midwest League hitters were rarely able to adjust to his change after sitting on the fastball. Syndergaard’s third pitch is an underdeveloped curveball. Currently, the offering is a looping 12-6 curve that needs to be tightened significantly and thrown consistently before it is considered even an average pitch.

Choosing Sanchez or Syndergaard comes down to whether one think Sanchez can rein in his command or Syndergaard can develop a third pitch. Both have the aptitude to make changes. Sanchez has the athleticism, body control and repeatable delivery coaches look for when gauging whether a pitcher can harness his command. It’s more difficult to determine whether Syndergaard can develop a curveball, which is tied to a skillset he’s yet to showcase: consistent tight rotation due to wrist pronation and tensile strength.

But there are other pitches he can develop should his curveball’s development plateau. Most importantly, Syndergaard already has an above-average change-up to keep left-handed hitters — and his platoon splits — in check. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Mets had Syndergaard develop a slider, too, as that tends to be their breaking ball of choice.

Both pitchers will be in the Florida State League (High-A) this season with an outside change at reaching the Eastern League (Double-A) before the season ends. A lot will happen in the two or three years before their debuts, but if each develops as I expect, Sanchez has a higher ceiling as an ace. Syndergaard, on the other hand, is realistically a second or a third starter. With that said, I am more confident that Syndergaard can complement his fastball and change up with a third offering than I am in Sanchez’s command profile. If I had to pick one of them to start a playoff game for me today, it would be Syndergaard. But talent like Sanchez’s is rare.


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The White Sox and Beating Projections.
There are a lot of projection systems floating around the nerdy baseball universe. Here on FanGraphs, we host a lot of them, including ZIPS, Steamer, Oliver, Marcel, and the Fans projections, and then there’s other systems like CAIRO and PECOTA that are hosted elsewhere. Of all the baseball projection systems, PECOTA is probably the most famous because it was created by Nate Silver, and Nate Silver is now pretty famous for his post-baseball career. So, when PECOTA releases their annual projections, mainstream writers pay attention. And Chicago writers, particularly, like to talk about PECOTA’s projections, mainly to remind everyone how wrong they’ve been about the White Sox.

For instance, here’s a piece by a local radio anchor that trots out all the usual ad hominem attacks about geeks and their numbers. And here’s another one of this year’s entries, which just gives up on factual information completely:

What is it about the White Sox’s rosters and farm system that Baseball Prospectus doesn’t like?

To answer that question, I decided to do research on who writes these inaccuracies year after year. What I found shocked and disturbed me.

It’s Nate Silver.

My whole world of reality collapsed at that moment.

How could it be the guy I religiously read for pinpoint accuracy in politics? How could it be that Silver is an accuracy genius in politics, but yet when it comes to the White Sox he transforms into the accuracy of a Republican pollster?

After composing myself, I discovered a possible reason. Silver lived in Chicago for many years near Wrigleyville and is rumored to be a Cubs fan.

Maybe being a Cubs fan is a weighted bias even Silver’s methodology can’t overcome.

I’m not here to defend PECOTA — BP can do that if they’d like — but I will just insert some facts into the discussion. Like, for instance, that Silver grew up in Michigan as a Tigers fan, not a Cubs fan. Or, that Silver hasn’t been in charge of the system since 2009, and the code has been essentially rewritten since he left. And, of course, it would be remarkably silly for any forecaster to create a system that intentionally downgrades the projections of a specific franchise, since that would simply make the system less accurate and hurt his own credibility. The idea that PECOTA has some kind of anti-White Sox bias because Silver went to the University of Chicago and attended some Cubs games is worthy of the tin foil hat brigade.

That said, I do think it’s interesting that the White Sox have regularly outperformed PECOTA’s expectations, and I think it’s worth actually investigating, as opposed to what Michael Tomaso did. So, let’s investigate the White Sox overall performance since 2005.

Thanks to this helpful link from Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune, we can see PECOTA’s projections for the White Sox each of the last eight years next to their actual record for that season.

Year Projected Wins Projected Losses Actual Wins Actual Losses Difference in Wins
2005 80 82 99 63 19
2006 82 80 90 72 8
2007 73 89 72 90 -1
2008 77 85 89 74 12
2009 73 89 79 83 6
2010 79 83 88 74 9
2011 82 80 79 83 -3
2012 78 84 85 77 7
Total 624 672 681 616 57

The White Sox have won 52.5% of their games over the last eight years, while PECOTA projected them to win 48.1% of those games during the same time period. On a per season basis, that works out to a seven win difference, and beating your projections by seven wins per year for an eight stretch is pretty impressive. The question is why they’ve been able to do that.

One possible option is that PECOTA’s just not a great forecasting tool, of course, but that probably shouldn’t be the conclusion that we default to simply based on one franchise’s results. It’s also possible that the White Sox have just done something over the last eight years that is hard to forecast ahead of time, and these are things we can actually test and potentially identify.

So, let’s just start with the White Sox win-loss record, and whether or not it matches up with their runs scored and runs allowed. We’ve already noted that the Pale Hose have won at a .525 clip over the last eight years, but has their run differential backed up that kind of record?

During their last 1,297 games, they’ve scored 5,991 runs and allowed 5,825 runs, or an average of 4.62 RPG and 4.49 RAPG. Just from the fact that they’ve outscored their opponents, we can already see that they’ve outplayed their projections, and the entire difference hasn’t been due to the timing of when those runs scored. However, it’s still worth noting the magnitude of the difference, so we can put those RS/RA totals into the pythagenpat calculation and see that those RS/RA totals correspond to a .513 expected winning percentage.

The gap between playing at a .513 and .525 level isn’t enormous, but over nearly 1,300 games, it adds up to an extra 16 wins. In other words, of the seven win per year difference that we started with, two of those (29%) can simply be explained by the timing of run scoring. There’s simply no real way for any forecasting tool — mathematical or gut-based — to know in advance the distribution of how runs are going to be divvied up throughout the year, but that distribution can have a big impact on a team’s final record.

Even if there was an absolutely perfect forecast for the White Sox over the last eight years, it would have missed by two wins per season simply due to fact that run distribution is outside of the realm of forecasting. Projecting aggregate totals with some degree of success is possible, but no one is capable of knowing whether a team is going to score exactly five runs each game or whether they’re going to alternate 10 run games with shutouts. We know what’s more likely, based on historical data and normal distribution, and the best anyone can do is to assume that a team will score and allow runs in something like a normal distribution going forward.

So, we’ve basically explained 30% of the White Sox variation from their PECOTA projections. What could explain the other 70%?

Don Cooper and the White Sox training staff is probably a large chunk of that. Last year, Jeff Zimmerman had a really great post on 10 year DL trends, and I’m going to steal two images from that post and put them here:





The overall health of the White Sox during the last decade has been pretty staggering. Look specifically at the blue pitcher injury bars. From 2002 to 2011, the White Sox pitchers lost fewer than 2,000 days to the DL, while most teams were over 3,000, a lot of teams were over 4,000, and the Rangers were up over 6,000. The White Sox had a remarkable run of pitcher health, and as new GM Rick Hahn told a group of FG readers and authors in Phoenix a few years ago, the organization views Cooper and the training staff as one of the main reasons the team has been competitive during this stretch.

Team forecasts are essentially a collection of individual forecasts realigned to account for expected playing time levels. Because specific pitcher injuries are hard to predict, forecasting systems rely on a player’s own personal track record and normal regression to the mean, which accounts for the fact that there is a chance each player will get injured and miss a chunk of time during the season.

The White Sox pitchers have continually spent a fraction of the time on the DL that any forecasting system would have projected, and so the team’s innings have been reallocated from replacement level scrubs to the team’s highest quality arms. As a result, the White Sox have had the best pitching staff in baseball since 2005, coming in with both an ERA- and FIP- of 93 during that time. They may often get overlooked because of the hitter’s haven they play in, but Chicago has consistently put together results that were better than many high profile staffs, even if they did it with depth and endurance rather than splashy aces.

Chicago has only had 14 pitchers throw at least 100 innings as a starter for them over the last eight years, and of those 14, only three — Orlando Hernandez, Clayton Richard, and Philip Humber — could be described as below average Major League starters during their time in Chicago. That’s remarkable. Even other teams that have focused heavily on pitching during this run have ended up giving long runs to lousy pitchers, simply due to the fact that pitchers break down, and teams either live through terrible performances trying to get them fixed or have terrible replacements come up from the minors.

The White Sox simply haven’t had that problem. They might not have had a rotation fronted by Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but they also didn’t give 265 innings to Adam Eaton and his 136 ERA-. While most of the analysis about a pitching rotation’s strength focuses on how good the first few starters are, the contributions of the guys at the back end can make a huge difference as well. And, no team has gotten more value from their back-end starters than the White Sox, primarily because they’ve been able to keep them healthy and avoid the roller coaster of minor league fill-ins that most teams inevitably have to endure.

Trying to quantify exactly what the difference in wins that Cooper and Herm Schneider have meant to the franchise is a more difficult task than looking at the distribution of runs, but just for fun, let’s add an extra 200 days per year on the DL for the White Sox pitching staff, which would bring them to that 2002-2011 league norm that Zimmerman demonstrated last year. There’s roughly 185 days in a Major League season, so we’re basically talking about the difference of not losing one pitcher for a full year, or about 180 to 200 innings pitched.

The average White Sox pitcher during the 2005-2012 timeframe has averaged +2.9 WAR per 180 innings. If we assume that another pitching coach/training staff would have lost that pitcher to injury each season, and the White Sox would have had to replace that pitcher with a collection of replacement level arms, we’ve now accounted for an additional 43% of the White Sox variation from their PECOTA projected records. There’s some assumptions in there that might not be true, but it seems pretty clear that the White Sox track record of pitcher health has added something on the order of several wins per season to the team’s record during the time we’re discussing. Maybe it’s two wins instead of three. I’m not going to argue for this being a precise calculation, but it’s clearly a major factor, and probably an even larger factor than the run distribution we talked about earlier.

Between pitcher health and run distributions, we can probably assume that those two factors account for 50-75% of the team’s variation from the PECOTA projections over the last eight years. One of the two factors is basically not forecastable, while the other is something that the White Sox absolutely deserve a lot of credit for, and it should be noted that this appears to be a sustainable advantage for the organization. If you think the White Sox projections from any system are too low, pointing to Cooper and Schneider’s success at keeping pitchers healthy is almost certainly your best answer to why the team may continue to outperform those projections once again.

But also, please just keep in mind that projections are not predictions. They are a snapshot of what we think a team’s median true talent level might be, and it should be understood that there’s a pretty sizable margin for error based on things that projection systems simply can’t forecast, and also the errors that come from having imperfect information or imperfect calculations. The standard deviation in wins from the good forecasting systems are somewhere in the range of eight wins, meaning that a team forecast for 77 wins could reasonably be expected to win anywhere from 69 to 85 games without it saying anything about the model having a breakdown. There are simply too many uncontrollable and unpredictable variables to get so precise with our preseason forecasts, and simply because of how bell curves work, there are always going to be teams that fall at the tail end of the distribution, making the forecasts look wildly wrong in retrospect.

Most years, there’s one team that beats its forecast by 15 wins, sometimes even 20. Last year, we had two, with Baltimore and Oakland winning far more than anyone expected. Pretty much any team forecast for north of 70 wins has some chance at making the playoffs if the stars align. A 77 win forecast for the White Sox — from any projection system — shouldn’t be taken as a death knell for their season, especially with what we know about their apparent ability to keep their pitchers healthy. But, it’s still worth knowing the consensus projections for the White Sox this year have them as something like the 10th best team in the American League. That doesn’t mean that they can’t win, but it does mean that it’s less likely that they’re going to make the playoffs than most of their competitors.

You don’t need a perfect model in order to extract useful information. Projection systems are not perfect models, and as the White Sox have shown, there are important variables that are not being measured as well as they could be. That said, don’t throw the baby out with the bath water, and don’t assume that the people behind the projections are biased towards your team just because they created a system that spits out a number you don’t like. Instead of going on the attack, try to figure out why the projection system says what it does, and see if there’s a reasonable argument for why it might be missing something.

With the White Sox, there is definitely a reasonable argument that projection systems underrate their ability to keep their pitchers healthy. The run distribution thing is probably just randomness, and I wouldn’t advise counting on that going forward, but the White Sox may very well outperform their projections again this year. Instead of decrying the systems as useless, maybe just use that information as reason to throw Don Cooper a parade.


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Man, reading that article makes me want Lohse more...but I like Detweiler in the rotation as well. Good problem to have I guess?
 
Man, reading that article makes me want Lohse more...but I like Detweiler in the rotation as well. Good problem to have I guess?
would like him but our pitching is good man 
nthat.gif
 
Mr. Marcus.....can you respond to my post above (#9802) please? I am curious what Dodger fans reactions to that is.
 
we're not? is this supposed to be an insult from josh? let me get this right, dude slumped at the end of the season, then bolts to the division rival and now he's taking pot shots at the metroplex's baseball loyalty.

i think he forgot he'll have to play here 8 times a season. Arod hasn't worn a "T" on his cap in an decade, and josh seen the boos Arod still gets when he comes to bat in arlington.
 
Mr. Marcus.....can you respond to my post above (#9802) please? I am curious what Dodger fans reactions to that is.
i'm not a dodgers fan 
laugh.gif
 .....just a play off my screen name lol....ima update my avy to the nationals before the season start
 
I always thought Mr Marcus was a Dodgers fan. Threw me off when he would talk about the Nationals. I thought he was one of those "two-team" guys.
 
"Nats pitcher Gio Gonzalez did not receive banned substances from Miami clinic, sources told Outside The Lines." Text I just got from ESPN.

Relieved that Gio didn't do it :pimp:
 
I know this isnt a new report, but I just read that Don Mattingly says that Brandon League will be the Dodgers closer this season and not Kenley Janson?!? WTF?!? As a Giants fan, I am absolutely thrilled with this decision. Brandon League is trash and Janson looks unhittable most of the time.

Can any Dodger fans weigh in on this? I am curious to know what your thoughts are.
League finished the year strong if I remember correctly. I think with Janson's recent stints in the DL and having a heart/blood problem (I think that's what it is) I don't know if the dodgers can count on him to be healthy all year.

I don't mind it til league starts ****** blowing saves :lol:
 
I know this isnt a new report, but I just read that Don Mattingly says that Brandon League will be the Dodgers closer this season and not Kenley Janson?!? WTF?!? As a Giants fan, I am absolutely thrilled with this decision. Brandon League is trash and Janson looks unhittable most of the time.

Can any Dodger fans weigh in on this? I am curious to know what your thoughts are.
League finished the year strong if I remember correctly. I think with Janson's recent stints in the DL and having a heart/blood problem (I think that's what it is) I don't know if the dodgers can count on him to be healthy all year.

I don't mind it til league starts ****** blowing saves :lol:

Completely unrelated topic but,

jordan you know where I can find a green and gold Dodger hat? It would be exactly A's colors but with "LA" in the middle.

Would any Lids in LA have it? I seen it online and now I got to have it.
 
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